TruthIsAll
04-20-2008, 05:18 AM
Pennsylvania: A True Vote (not Recorded) Projection Model
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/PennsylvaniaVoteModel.htm
The latest PA polls show the race tightening. The latest 5-poll moving average has Clinton leading by 47-43. But there are factors which don’t show up in the polls.
This model analysis takes the following factors into account:
1) 10-12% of voters are undecided. Professional pollsters usually allocate 67-90% to the “challenger”. Obama has just four years as a Senator and can be considered as the challenger - while the “incumbent” Clinton has high unfavorable ratings.
2) Democratic new voter registration in Philadelphia (strongly Obama). New voters are not polled.
3) Cell phone users are mostly younger (Obama) voters and can’t be reached by the pollsters.
One would expect that Obama should do better than his final polling, but...
The true vote, as most of us know, is never equal to the official, recorded vote.
There is no reason to assume that this election will be any different.
There are other factors that the model does not account for:
1) Insufficient polling machines and long lines
2) Uncounted votes
3) Electronically switched votes
So be forewarned: The following analyses and projections assume a fraud-free election.
Assume the following Base Case scenario:
1) Current polling is 46-43 in favor of Clinton.
2) Undecided voters will break for the "challenger", Obama.
3) New voters are approximately 10% of the electorate.
4) Unpolled cell phone users are approximately 10% of the electorate.
For the Base Case scenario, assume that Obama wins 60% of undecided, 60% of new and 60% of cell phone voters.
Obama wins the Base Case with 51.3% of the vote.
Sensitivity Analysis I
Clinton's poll share ranges from 44-48% and Obama's from 43-47%.
Calculate the vote shares for all scenario combinations.
Obama's worst case scenario is 50.3%
His best case is 53.7%
Sensitivity Analysis II
Assume Obama's share of the undecided vote ranges from 45-80%.
Calculate the vote share for all scenario combinations.
Obama's worst case scenario is 49.1%
His best case is 54.4%.
[code]
Base Case Scenario
Obama Clinton Total
Poll 43 46 89.0
Undec 6.6 4.4 11.0
New 6.0 4.0 10.0
Cell 6.0 4.0 10.0
Total 61.6 58.4 120.0
Share 51.3 48.7 100.0
Sensitivity Analysis I
Clinton Obama % poll share
%Shr 43 44 45 46 47
Obama projected % vote share
44 52.3 52.7 53.0 53.3 53.7
45 51.8 52.2 52.5 52.8 53.2
46 51.3 51.7 52.0 52.3 52.7
47 50.8 51.2 51.5 51.8 52.2
48 50.3 50.7 51.0 51.3 51.7
Sensitivity Analysis II
Obama Obama % of Undecided
%New 45 55 60 75 80
Obama projected % vote share
75 51.2 52.1 52.6 54.0 54.4
70 50.8 51.7 52.2 53.5 54.0
60 50.0 50.9 51.3 52.7 53.2
50 49.1 50.0 50.5 51.9 52.3
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/PennsylvaniaVoteModel.htm
The latest PA polls show the race tightening. The latest 5-poll moving average has Clinton leading by 47-43. But there are factors which don’t show up in the polls.
This model analysis takes the following factors into account:
1) 10-12% of voters are undecided. Professional pollsters usually allocate 67-90% to the “challenger”. Obama has just four years as a Senator and can be considered as the challenger - while the “incumbent” Clinton has high unfavorable ratings.
2) Democratic new voter registration in Philadelphia (strongly Obama). New voters are not polled.
3) Cell phone users are mostly younger (Obama) voters and can’t be reached by the pollsters.
One would expect that Obama should do better than his final polling, but...
The true vote, as most of us know, is never equal to the official, recorded vote.
There is no reason to assume that this election will be any different.
There are other factors that the model does not account for:
1) Insufficient polling machines and long lines
2) Uncounted votes
3) Electronically switched votes
So be forewarned: The following analyses and projections assume a fraud-free election.
Assume the following Base Case scenario:
1) Current polling is 46-43 in favor of Clinton.
2) Undecided voters will break for the "challenger", Obama.
3) New voters are approximately 10% of the electorate.
4) Unpolled cell phone users are approximately 10% of the electorate.
For the Base Case scenario, assume that Obama wins 60% of undecided, 60% of new and 60% of cell phone voters.
Obama wins the Base Case with 51.3% of the vote.
Sensitivity Analysis I
Clinton's poll share ranges from 44-48% and Obama's from 43-47%.
Calculate the vote shares for all scenario combinations.
Obama's worst case scenario is 50.3%
His best case is 53.7%
Sensitivity Analysis II
Assume Obama's share of the undecided vote ranges from 45-80%.
Calculate the vote share for all scenario combinations.
Obama's worst case scenario is 49.1%
His best case is 54.4%.
[code]
Base Case Scenario
Obama Clinton Total
Poll 43 46 89.0
Undec 6.6 4.4 11.0
New 6.0 4.0 10.0
Cell 6.0 4.0 10.0
Total 61.6 58.4 120.0
Share 51.3 48.7 100.0
Sensitivity Analysis I
Clinton Obama % poll share
%Shr 43 44 45 46 47
Obama projected % vote share
44 52.3 52.7 53.0 53.3 53.7
45 51.8 52.2 52.5 52.8 53.2
46 51.3 51.7 52.0 52.3 52.7
47 50.8 51.2 51.5 51.8 52.2
48 50.3 50.7 51.0 51.3 51.7
Sensitivity Analysis II
Obama Obama % of Undecided
%New 45 55 60 75 80
Obama projected % vote share
75 51.2 52.1 52.6 54.0 54.4
70 50.8 51.7 52.2 53.5 54.0
60 50.0 50.9 51.3 52.7 53.2
50 49.1 50.0 50.5 51.9 52.3