TruthIsAll
12-28-2008, 12:21 AM
The National Exit Poll must match the official vote count - come hell or high water
TruthIsAll
Dec. 29, 2008
Assume you had the full set of the preliminary National Exit Poll results
that showed Obama winning with a 57.8% vote share. As you suspected, more
Kerry voters returned than did Bush voters. The results differ sharply from
the official vote count that has Obama winning 52.34%. But the National Exit
Poll must match the official vote count - come hell or high water. How would
you go about it?
2008 National Exit Poll (unadjusted)
There are two possibilities: you can adjust the returning voter mix and/or
the individual vote shares.
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 72.0% 26.0% 2% 13.79 4.98 0.38
Kerry 42.9% 52.0 89.8% 8.2% 2% 46.66 4.29 1.04
Bush 40.4% 49.0 18.2% 80.8% 1% 8.93 39.61 0.49
Other 0.85% 1.0 66.0% 24.0% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 57.80% 40.53% 1.66% 70.06 49.12 2.02
You load the Excel Solver add-in program. It will determine the returning voter
mix that will force the cross tab to match the recorded vote share - or at least
get very close to it. It will find the required mix using a sophisticated goal-seeking algorithm.
It’s just trial and error on steroids.
Solver needs the ranges for the return voter percentage mix and the
corresponding vote shares to adjust until it matches the target (recorded)
Obama vote share. It also needs to know the numerical constraints; the mix and
share percentages must all be greater than zero and sum to 100%.
Now that Solver knows the target vote share and the range of percentages to
adjust subject to the constraints, it can begin the search for the required mix
and vote shares. Within seconds, it indicates that it has found the values needed
to match the recorded 52.34% share.
2008 National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
1. Target the Obama vote share at 52.34%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 71.0% 27.0% 2% 13.61 5.17 0.38
Kerry 38.5% 46.6 87.1% 10.9% 2% 40.62 5.08 0.93
Bush 44.9% 54.4 15.7% 83.3% 1% 8.54 45.30 0.54
Other 0.85% 1.0 66.0% 24.0% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 46.03% 1.62% 63.44 55.79 1.96
Solver has determined that to match the recorded vote, the returning voter mix
from the initial exit poll must be radically adjusted: an increase of 5.4
million more Bush voters and corresponding decrease in Kerry voters. Solver
also reduced the Obama share of new voters (1%), returning Kerry voters (2.8%)
and returning Bush voters (2.5%). But since the exit poll margin of error is
1.5%, the Obama shares of Kerry and Bush voters must be re-adjusted to fall
within the MoE based on the original poll results.
2. Adjust the Obama share of Kerry voters to 89% and Bush voters to 17%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 71% 27% 2% 13.61 5.17 0.38
Kerry 36.7% 44.4 89% 9% 2% 39.54 4.00 0.89
Bush 46.7% 56.6 17% 82% 1% 9.62 46.40 0.57
Other 0.85% 1.0 66% 24% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 46.05% 1.60% 63.44 55.82 1.94
But the required spread in the mix between returning Kerry and Bush voters
has widened from 6.4% to 10.0% (7.8m to 12.2m votes).Decrease the percentage of
new voters to 13.0%. Increase the percentage of returning third-party voters
to 4.0%.
3. Decrease the new vote mix to 13% and increase the mix of returning third-party voters to 4%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 15.8 71% 27% 2% 11.19 4.25 0.32
Kerry 36.62% 44.4 89% 9% 2% 39.50 3.99 0.89
Bush 46.38% 56.2 17% 82% 1% 9.56 46.10 0.56
Other 4.00% 4.8 66% 24% 10% 3.20 1.16 0.48
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 45.79% 1.86% 63.44 55.51 2.25
Done.
But 10.16 million late votes have been recorded since Election Day;
the vote count is 131.37 million.Obama has won 59% of the late votes, increasing
his vote share to 52.87%. Recalculate the mix.
4. The updated Final NEP (12/25/08):
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 17.1 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
Kerry 37.34% 49.1 89% 9% 2% 43.66 4.42 0.98
Bush 45.66% 60.0 17% 82% 1% 10.20 49.19 0.60
Other 4.00% 5.3 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 100% 131.37 52.87% 45.27% 1.86% 69.46 59.47 2.45
But the Final NEP is not feasible. The returning voter mix required to match
the recorded vote is mathematically impossible.
5. This result is feasible. But the returning voter mix is based on an
implausible recorded 2004 vote:
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.85% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.79 5.62 0.42
Kerry 40.40% 53.1 89% 9% 2% 47.24 4.78 1.06
Bush 42.90% 56.4 17% 82% 1% 9.58 46.21 0.56
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.27 0.11
Total 100% 131.37 55.07% 43.30% 1.64% 72.34 56.88 2.15
6. This result is more likely. The returning voter mix is based on the
unadjusted 2004 state exit poll aggregate:
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.85% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.79 5.62 0.42
Kerry 44.00% 57.8 89% 9% 2% 51.44 5.20 1.16
Bush 39.30% 51.6 17% 82% 1% 8.78 42.34 0.52
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.27 0.11
Total 100% 131.37 57.66% 40.67% 1.68% 75.75 53.42 2.20
-The Final NEP indicates that 2004 third-party voters comprised 4% (5.3m) of
the 131.37 million who voted in 2008. But there were only 1.2m third-party
voters in 2004.
-Bush won by an official 62-59 million votes. But returning Bush voters
comprised 46% (60.0m) and Kerry voters just 37% (49.1m) – a 10.9 million spread.
- According to voter mortality tables, approximately 3 million Bush voters
died prior to the 2008 election. But even assuming 100% Bush voter turnout in
2008, at most 59 million could have voted. Realistically, approximately
95% (56m) voted. Therefore, the Final NEP overstated the number of returning
Bush voters by 4 million. And that’s a conservative number since it assumes that
the recorded vote was equal to the True vote.
-According to the unadjusted 2004 state exit poll aggregate, Kerry won by
52-47% (63.6-57.5m). If the aggregate reflected the True vote, then the
2008 NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 9 million.
The Final National Exit Poll anomalies should have been reported by the media.
But the NY Times, CNN, ABC, the Washington Post commissioned the NEP. The impossible
results will remain official. Otherwise, the public would know that Obama really
won by more than 20 million votes. That’s too big a mandate; he would be
compelled to enact a progressive agenda. More important, the Corporate Media
does not want the public to know that Bushco stole both elections and that the
same Final NEP anomalies existed in 2004.
TruthIsAll
Dec. 29, 2008
Assume you had the full set of the preliminary National Exit Poll results
that showed Obama winning with a 57.8% vote share. As you suspected, more
Kerry voters returned than did Bush voters. The results differ sharply from
the official vote count that has Obama winning 52.34%. But the National Exit
Poll must match the official vote count - come hell or high water. How would
you go about it?
2008 National Exit Poll (unadjusted)
There are two possibilities: you can adjust the returning voter mix and/or
the individual vote shares.
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 72.0% 26.0% 2% 13.79 4.98 0.38
Kerry 42.9% 52.0 89.8% 8.2% 2% 46.66 4.29 1.04
Bush 40.4% 49.0 18.2% 80.8% 1% 8.93 39.61 0.49
Other 0.85% 1.0 66.0% 24.0% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 57.80% 40.53% 1.66% 70.06 49.12 2.02
You load the Excel Solver add-in program. It will determine the returning voter
mix that will force the cross tab to match the recorded vote share - or at least
get very close to it. It will find the required mix using a sophisticated goal-seeking algorithm.
It’s just trial and error on steroids.
Solver needs the ranges for the return voter percentage mix and the
corresponding vote shares to adjust until it matches the target (recorded)
Obama vote share. It also needs to know the numerical constraints; the mix and
share percentages must all be greater than zero and sum to 100%.
Now that Solver knows the target vote share and the range of percentages to
adjust subject to the constraints, it can begin the search for the required mix
and vote shares. Within seconds, it indicates that it has found the values needed
to match the recorded 52.34% share.
2008 National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
1. Target the Obama vote share at 52.34%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 71.0% 27.0% 2% 13.61 5.17 0.38
Kerry 38.5% 46.6 87.1% 10.9% 2% 40.62 5.08 0.93
Bush 44.9% 54.4 15.7% 83.3% 1% 8.54 45.30 0.54
Other 0.85% 1.0 66.0% 24.0% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 46.03% 1.62% 63.44 55.79 1.96
Solver has determined that to match the recorded vote, the returning voter mix
from the initial exit poll must be radically adjusted: an increase of 5.4
million more Bush voters and corresponding decrease in Kerry voters. Solver
also reduced the Obama share of new voters (1%), returning Kerry voters (2.8%)
and returning Bush voters (2.5%). But since the exit poll margin of error is
1.5%, the Obama shares of Kerry and Bush voters must be re-adjusted to fall
within the MoE based on the original poll results.
2. Adjust the Obama share of Kerry voters to 89% and Bush voters to 17%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 71% 27% 2% 13.61 5.17 0.38
Kerry 36.7% 44.4 89% 9% 2% 39.54 4.00 0.89
Bush 46.7% 56.6 17% 82% 1% 9.62 46.40 0.57
Other 0.85% 1.0 66% 24% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 46.05% 1.60% 63.44 55.82 1.94
But the required spread in the mix between returning Kerry and Bush voters
has widened from 6.4% to 10.0% (7.8m to 12.2m votes).Decrease the percentage of
new voters to 13.0%. Increase the percentage of returning third-party voters
to 4.0%.
3. Decrease the new vote mix to 13% and increase the mix of returning third-party voters to 4%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 15.8 71% 27% 2% 11.19 4.25 0.32
Kerry 36.62% 44.4 89% 9% 2% 39.50 3.99 0.89
Bush 46.38% 56.2 17% 82% 1% 9.56 46.10 0.56
Other 4.00% 4.8 66% 24% 10% 3.20 1.16 0.48
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 45.79% 1.86% 63.44 55.51 2.25
Done.
But 10.16 million late votes have been recorded since Election Day;
the vote count is 131.37 million.Obama has won 59% of the late votes, increasing
his vote share to 52.87%. Recalculate the mix.
4. The updated Final NEP (12/25/08):
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 17.1 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
Kerry 37.34% 49.1 89% 9% 2% 43.66 4.42 0.98
Bush 45.66% 60.0 17% 82% 1% 10.20 49.19 0.60
Other 4.00% 5.3 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 100% 131.37 52.87% 45.27% 1.86% 69.46 59.47 2.45
But the Final NEP is not feasible. The returning voter mix required to match
the recorded vote is mathematically impossible.
5. This result is feasible. But the returning voter mix is based on an
implausible recorded 2004 vote:
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.85% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.79 5.62 0.42
Kerry 40.40% 53.1 89% 9% 2% 47.24 4.78 1.06
Bush 42.90% 56.4 17% 82% 1% 9.58 46.21 0.56
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.27 0.11
Total 100% 131.37 55.07% 43.30% 1.64% 72.34 56.88 2.15
6. This result is more likely. The returning voter mix is based on the
unadjusted 2004 state exit poll aggregate:
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.85% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.79 5.62 0.42
Kerry 44.00% 57.8 89% 9% 2% 51.44 5.20 1.16
Bush 39.30% 51.6 17% 82% 1% 8.78 42.34 0.52
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.27 0.11
Total 100% 131.37 57.66% 40.67% 1.68% 75.75 53.42 2.20
-The Final NEP indicates that 2004 third-party voters comprised 4% (5.3m) of
the 131.37 million who voted in 2008. But there were only 1.2m third-party
voters in 2004.
-Bush won by an official 62-59 million votes. But returning Bush voters
comprised 46% (60.0m) and Kerry voters just 37% (49.1m) – a 10.9 million spread.
- According to voter mortality tables, approximately 3 million Bush voters
died prior to the 2008 election. But even assuming 100% Bush voter turnout in
2008, at most 59 million could have voted. Realistically, approximately
95% (56m) voted. Therefore, the Final NEP overstated the number of returning
Bush voters by 4 million. And that’s a conservative number since it assumes that
the recorded vote was equal to the True vote.
-According to the unadjusted 2004 state exit poll aggregate, Kerry won by
52-47% (63.6-57.5m). If the aggregate reflected the True vote, then the
2008 NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 9 million.
The Final National Exit Poll anomalies should have been reported by the media.
But the NY Times, CNN, ABC, the Washington Post commissioned the NEP. The impossible
results will remain official. Otherwise, the public would know that Obama really
won by more than 20 million votes. That’s too big a mandate; he would be
compelled to enact a progressive agenda. More important, the Corporate Media
does not want the public to know that Bushco stole both elections and that the
same Final NEP anomalies existed in 2004.