TruthIsAll
03-22-2009, 11:13 AM
Turnout of Prior Living Voters Required to Match New (DNV)voters
Pre-election Polls
Registered voter (RV) polls include all registered new voters; likely-voter (LV)
polls are a subset of RV polls and exclude many newly registered.
In general, only LV polls are posted during the final two weeks before the election.
LV polls are a subset of the total (RV) sample and have consistently understated
the Democratic vote.
RV samples are more accurate, especially when there is a heavy turnout of new voters (1992, 2004, 2008).
The Census reported that 88.5% of registered voters turned out on 2004.
The average projected turnout of 5 final pre-election RV/LV polls was 82.8%.
A regression analysis of Kerrys vote share vs. registered voter turnout indicated
he had a 52.6% share assuming a 75% UVA.Assuming the two-party vote, Kerry had a
51.3% share. There was a strong 0.89 correlation ratio between Kerrys LV poll share
and LV/RV turnout.The pre-election polls underestimated voter turnout by 6%. Newly
registered Democrats came out in force.
2008 Final Pre-election Polls
The Obama / McCain RV-LV share (73.3-26.7%) matched the NEP new voter share (71-27%).
The 1052 difference between the 3-poll RV sample (8581) and the LV subset (7529)
comprised 12.3% of the total RV sample.
Assuming 3% uncounted votes, there were approximately 19.3m newly registered voters
and others who did not vote in 2008 (14.3% of 135.37m).
2004 Final Pre-election Polls
The Kerry/Bush vote split of the difference (1335)in sample between the RV and LV
subset (57.842.2%) matched the 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll 'New Voter'
shares: 57412%. The 1769 difference i.e. 5-poll RV samples (10310) exclusive of
their LV subsets (8541) comprised 17.2% of the RV total sample.
In 2004, there were approximately 21.4 million newly registered and other new voters
(DNV 2000) 17% of the 125.74m total votes cast.
Of the 21.4 million, approximately 13.8m (11% of 125.74) were first-time voters.
Kerry won 55% of first-timers. The average pre-election poll projected turnout of
registered voters was 82.8% (117m of 142m registered). The census reported an 88.5%
voter turnout (125.7m). There were 122.3m votes recorded.
New Voters
According to the 1988-2004 National Exit Polls, the Democrats won new voters by an
average 14% margin.
2008 Obama 71-27%
2004 Kerry 57-41%
2000 Gore 52-43%
1996 Clinton 54-34%
1992 Clinton 46-32%
The calculations below confirm that new voters comprise the difference (RVLV)
between registered (RV) and likely voter (LV) sample-size.
The Obama/McCain share of the difference was 73.3-26.7%, closely matching the 71-27% NEP new voter share.
The Kerry/Bush share of the difference was 57.8-42.2%, closely matching the 57-41% NEP new voter share.
The number of new voters is a function of voter mortality and turnout.
New voters = current vote (prior vote- mortality) * prior voter turnout
2008
Based on 2008 votes cast (135.43) and 2004 (125.74):
4 year Mortality 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters: 96.80%
DNV in 2008 = 14.30%
New 2008 voters = 19.36 million
= 135.43 (125.74 5.83)* 0.9680 = 135.43 119.91*.9680 = 135.43- 116.07
2004
Based on 2004 votes cast (125.74) and 2000 votes cast (110.83):
4 year Mortality: 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters: 98.51%
DNV in 2004 = 17.20%
New 2004 voters = 21.63 million
= 125.74 (110.83 5.14)* 0.9851 = 125.74 105.69*.9851= 125.74- 104.11
DNV = (RV-LV) / RV
New voter share = (registered- likely)/registered
Returning voters (LV)
LV = (Current Cast- Prior Cast + Mortality)* Turnout of prior voters
_________________________________________________________________________________
Assumptions: 1992
4 year Mortality 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters 97.94%
Year 1992 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
DNV 16.16% 16.16% 9.00% 13.96% 17.20% 14.30%
Reg 126.58 126.58 127.66 129.55 142.07 157
Cast 113.87 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74 135.43
Record 104.42 104.42 96.28 105.42 122.30 131.37
Prior 102.22 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74
Change 11.65 11.65 -8.85 5.81 14.91 9.69
Mort. 4.74 5.12% 5.04% 4.96% 4.88% 4.80%
5.23 5.74 5.21 5.41 6.04
Prior Still Living 97.48
Turnout Prior Living 95.47
New= Cast-Turnout 18.40
DNV % Cast 16.16% (RV-LV) / RV
Return voters (LV) 83.84%
Cast/ Registered 89.96% Turnout of current election voters (LV)
1992 Turnout of prior election voters (LV)
4 year 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 97.94% 99% 100%
DNV New voters % of total cast
5.12% 23.34% 22.49% 21.64% 20.79% 19.94% 19.09% 18.23% 17.38% 16.58% 15.68% 14.83%
4.88% 23.15% 22.30% 21.44% 20.59% 19.73% 18.88% 18.03% 17.17% 16.37% 15.47% 14.61%
4.64% 22.96% 22.10% 21.24% 20.39% 19.53% 18.68% 17.82% 16.96% 16.16% 15.25% 14.40%
4.40% 22.76% 21.90% 21.05% 20.19% 19.33% 18.47% 17.61% 16.76% 15.95% 15.04% 14.18%
4.16% 22.57% 21.71% 20.85% 19.99% 19.13% 18.27% 17.41% 16.55% 15.74% 14.83% 13.97%
DNV New voters
5.12% 26.58 25.61 24.64 23.67 22.70 21.73 20.76 19.79 18.88 17.85 16.88
4.88% 26.36 25.39 24.42 23.44 22.47 21.50 20.53 19.56 18.64 17.61 16.64
4.64% 26.14 25.17 24.19 23.22 22.24 21.27 20.29 19.32 18.40 17.37 16.39
4.40% 25.92 24.94 23.97 22.99 22.01 21.03 20.06 19.08 18.16 17.12 16.15
4.16% 25.70 24.72 23.74 22.76 21.78 20.80 19.82 18.84 17.92 16.88 15.90
1992 Calculated Vote
1988 Record Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Clinton Bush Other
DNV 18.43 16.19% 46% 32% 22%
Dukakis 41.81 7.95 49.76 2.31 47.45 97.94% 46.47 40.8% 83% 5% 12%
Bush 48.89 2.65 51.54 2.39 49.15 97.94% 48.13 42.3% 21% 59% 20%
Other 0.90 0.00 0.90 0.04 0.86 97.94% 0.84 0.74% 50% 50% 0%
Total 91.60 10.60 102.19 4.74 97.45 95.4 113.88 100% 50.56% 32.53% 16.91%
Cast 113.88 57.58 37.04 19.26
Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54%
104.42 44.91 39.11 20.41
_________________________________________________________________________________
Assumptions: 1996
4 year Mortality 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters 88.01%
Year 1996 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
DNV 9.00% 16.16% 9.00% 13.96% 17.20% 14.30%
Reg 127.66 126.58 127.66 129.55 142.07 157
Cast 105.02 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74 135.43
Record 96.28 104.42 96.28 105.42 122.30 131.37
Prior 113.87 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74
Change -8.85 11.65 -8.85 5.81 14.91 9.69
Mort. 5.28 5.12% 5.04% 4.96% 4.88% 4.80%
5.23 5.74 5.21 5.41 6.04
Prior Still Living 108.59
Turnout Prior Living 95.57
New= Cast-Turnout 9.45
DNV % Cast 9.00% (RV-LV) / RV
Return voters (LV) 91.00%
Cast/ Registered 82.27% Turnout of current election voters (LV)
1996 Turnout of prior election voters (LV)
4 year 86% 87% 88.01% 89% 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96%
DNV New voters % of total cast
5.12% 11.53% 10.50% 9.46% 8.43% 7.40% 6.37% 5.34% 4.32% 3.29% 2.26% 1.23%
4.88% 11.30% 10.27% 9.23% 8.20% 7.17% 6.14% 5.10% 4.07% 3.04% 2.01% 0.98%
4.64% 11.08% 10.05% 9.00% 7.97% 6.93% 5.90% 4.87% 3.83% 2.80% 1.76% 0.73%
4.40% 10.86% 9.82% 8.77% 7.74% 6.70% 5.66% 4.63% 3.59% 2.55% 1.52% 0.48%
4.16% 10.63% 9.59% 8.54% 7.50% 6.46% 5.43% 4.39% 3.35% 2.31% 1.27% 0.23%
DNV New voters
5.12% 12.11 11.03 9.93 8.85 7.77 6.69 5.61 4.53 3.45 2.37 1.29
4.88% 11.87 10.79 9.69 8.61 7.53 6.44 5.36 4.28 3.19 2.11 1.03
4.64% 11.64 10.55 9.45 8.37 7.28 6.20 5.11 4.02 2.94 1.85 0.77
4.40% 11.40 10.31 9.21 8.12 7.04 5.95 4.86 3.77 2.68 1.59 0.50
4.16% 11.17 10.07 8.97 7.88 6.79 5.70 4.61 3.52 2.42 1.33 0.24
1996 Calculated Vote
1992 Record Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Clinton Dole Other
DNV 9.45 9.00% 54% 34% 12%
Clinton 44.91 7.09 52.00 2.41 49.59 88.01% 43.64 41.6% 85% 9% 6%
Bush 39.11 0.95 40.05 1.86 38.19 88.01% 33.61 32.0% 13% 82% 5%
Other 20.41 1.42 21.83 1.01 20.81 88.01% 18.32 17.44% 45% 35% 20%
Total 104.43 9.45 113.88 5.28 108.59 95.6 105.02 100% 52.19% 39.15% 8.66%
Cast 105.02 54.81 41.12 9.10
Recorded 49.23% 40.72% 10.05%
96.28 47.40 39.20 9.68
_________________________________________________________________________________
Assumptions: 2000
4 year Mortality 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters 95.22%
Year 2000 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
DNV 13.96% 16.16% 9.00% 13.96% 17.20% 14.30%
Reg 129.55 126.58 127.66 129.55 142.07 157
Cast 110.83 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74 135.43
Record 105.42 104.42 96.28 105.42 122.30 131.37
Prior 105.02 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74
Change 5.81 11.65 -8.85 5.81 14.91 9.69
Mort. 4.87 5.12% 5.04% 4.96% 4.88% 4.80%
5.23 5.74 5.21 5.41 6.04
Prior Still Living 100.15
Turnout Prior Living 95.36
New= Cast-Turnout 15.47
DNV % Cast 13.96% (RV-LV) / RV
Return voters (LV) 86.04%
Cast/ Registered 85.55% Turnout of current election voters (LV)
2000 Turnout of prior election voters (LV)
4 year 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95.22% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100%
DNV New voters % of total cast
5.12% 19.08% 18.19% 17.29% 16.39% 15.49% 14.39% 13.49% 12.79% 11.89% 10.99% 10.09%
4.88% 18.88% 17.98% 17.08% 16.18% 15.27% 14.17% 13.27% 12.57% 11.67% 10.77% 9.87%
4.64% 18.68% 17.77% 16.87% 15.96% 15.06% 13.96% 13.05% 12.35% 11.45% 10.54% 9.64%
4.40% 18.47% 17.56% 16.66% 15.75% 14.85% 13.74% 12.84% 12.13% 11.22% 10.32% 9.41%
4.16% 18.27% 17.36% 16.45% 15.54% 14.63% 13.53% 12.62% 11.91% 11.00% 10.09% 9.18%
DNV New voters
5.12% 21.15 20.15 19.16 18.16 17.17 15.95 14.95 14.18 13.18 12.18 11.19
4.88% 20.92 19.93 18.93 17.93 16.93 15.71 14.71 13.93 12.93 11.93 10.93
4.64% 20.70 19.70 18.69 17.69 16.69 15.47 14.47 13.69 12.69 11.68 10.68
4.40% 20.47 19.47 18.46 17.46 16.45 15.23 14.23 13.44 12.44 11.43 10.43
4.16% 20.24 19.24 18.23 17.22 16.22 14.99 13.98 13.20 12.19 11.19 10.18
2000 Calculated Vote
1996 Record Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV 15.46 13.95% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 47.40 6.56 53.96 2.50 51.46 95.22% 49.00 44.2% 82% 15% 3%
Dole 39.20 1.57 40.77 1.89 38.88 95.22% 37.02 33.4% 7% 91% 2%
Other 9.68 0.61 10.29 0.48 9.81 95.22% 9.34 8.43% 40% 40% 20%
Total 96.28 8.75 105.02 4.87 100.15 95.4 110.83 100% 49.22% 46.40% 4.38%
Cast 110.83 54.55 51.43 4.85
Recorded 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
105.42 51.00 50.46 3.95
_________________________________________________________________________________
Assumptions: 2004
4 year Mortality 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters 98.51%
Year 2004 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
DNV 17.20% 16.16% 9.00% 13.96% 17.20% 14.30%
Reg 142.07 126.58 127.66 129.55 142.07 157
Cast 125.74 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74 135.43
Record 122.30 104.42 96.28 105.42 122.30 131.37
Prior 110.83 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74
Change 14.91 11.65 -8.85 5.81 14.91 9.69
Mort. 5.14 5.12% 5.04% 4.96% 4.88% 4.80%
5.23 5.74 5.21 5.41 6.04
Prior Still Living 105.69
Turnout Prior Living 104.11
New= Cast-Turnout 21.63
DNV % Cast 17.20% (RV-LV) / RV
Return voters (LV) 82.80%
Cast/ Registered 88.51% Turnout of current election voters (LV)
2004 Turnout of prior election voters (LV)
4 year 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98.51% 99% 100%
DNV New voters % of total cast
5.12% 24.73% 23.90% 23.06% 22.22% 21.39% 20.55% 19.72% 18.88% 17.62% 17.21% 16.37%
4.88% 24.54% 23.70% 22.87% 22.03% 21.19% 20.35% 19.51% 18.67% 17.41% 17.00% 16.16%
4.64% 24.35% 23.51% 22.67% 21.83% 20.99% 20.15% 19.31% 18.47% 17.20% 16.79% 15.95%
4.40% 24.16% 23.32% 22.48% 21.63% 20.79% 19.95% 19.11% 18.26% 16.99% 16.58% 15.74%
4.16% 23.97% 23.13% 22.28% 21.44% 20.59% 19.75% 18.90% 18.06% 16.78% 16.37% 15.52%
DNV New voters
5.12% 31.10 30.05 29.00 27.95 26.89 25.84 24.79 23.74 22.15 21.64 20.58
4.88% 30.86 29.81 28.75 27.70 26.64 25.59 24.54 23.48 21.89 21.37 20.32
4.64% 30.62 29.56 28.51 27.45 26.39 25.34 24.28 23.22 21.63 21.11 20.05
4.40% 30.38 29.32 28.26 27.20 26.14 25.08 24.02 22.97 21.37 20.85 19.79
4.16% 30.14 29.08 28.02 26.96 25.89 24.83 23.77 22.71 21.10 20.58 19.52
2004 Calculated Vote
2000 Record Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 21.63 17.20% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.00 4.06 55.06 2.55 52.51 98.51% 51.72 41.1% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 50.46 1.19 51.65 2.40 49.25 98.51% 48.52 38.6% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.95 0.16 4.12 0.19 3.92 98.51% 3.87 3.07% 64% 17% 19%
Total 105.42 5.41 110.83 5.14 105.68 104.11 125.74 100% 53.07% 45.60% 1.34%
Cast 125.74 66.72 57.33 1.68
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23
_________________________________________________________________________________
2008 CALCULATION OF 96.80% TURNOUT ASSUMING 1.16% ANNUAL VOTER MORTALITY
Adjust Turnout of Prior Living voters to force a match to turnout of new voters
New voters = (Registered - Likely) /Registered
DNV = (RV-LV)/ RV
Returning voters = LV = (Current Cast- Prior Cast + mortality)* Turnout of Prior
Assumptions: 2008
4 year Mortality 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters 96.80%
Year 2008 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
DNV 14.30% 16.16% 9.00% 13.96% 17.20% 14.30%
Reg 157 126.58 127.66 129.55 142.07 157
Cast 135.43 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74 135.43
Record 131.37 104.42 96.28 105.42 122.30 131.37
Prior 125.74 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74
Change 9.69 11.65 -8.85 5.81 14.91 9.69
Mort. 5.83 5.12% 5.04% 4.96% 4.88% 4.80%
5.23 5.74 5.21 5.41 6.04
Prior Still Living 119.91
Turnout Prior Living 116.06
New= Cast-Turnout 19.37
DNV % Cast 14.30% (RV-LV) / RV
Return voters (LV) 85.70%
Cast/ Registered 86.26% Turnout of current election voters (LV)
2008 Turnout of prior election voters (LV)
4 year 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 96.80% 98% 99% 100%
DNV New voters % of total cast
5.12% 20.72% 19.84% 18.96% 18.08% 17.19% 16.31% 15.43% 14.73% 13.67% 12.79% 11.91%
4.88% 20.52% 19.63% 18.75% 17.87% 16.98% 16.10% 15.22% 14.51% 13.45% 12.57% 11.69%
4.64% 20.32% 19.43% 18.55% 17.66% 16.78% 15.89% 15.00% 14.30% 13.23% 12.35% 11.46%
4.40% 20.12% 19.23% 18.34% 17.45% 16.57% 15.68% 14.79% 14.08% 13.02% 12.13% 11.24%
4.16% 19.92% 19.03% 18.14% 17.25% 16.36% 15.47% 14.58% 13.86% 12.80% 11.91% 11.02%
DNV New voters
5.12% 28.06 26.87 25.67 24.48 23.29 22.09 20.90 19.95 18.51 17.32 16.13
4.88% 27.79 26.59 25.39 24.20 23.00 21.81 20.61 19.65 18.22 17.02 15.83
4.64% 27.51 26.32 25.12 23.92 22.72 21.52 20.32 19.36 17.92 16.72 15.52
4.40% 27.24 26.04 24.84 23.64 22.44 21.23 20.03 19.07 17.63 16.42 15.22
4.16% 26.97 25.77 24.56 23.36 22.15 20.95 19.74 18.78 17.33 16.13 14.92
2008 Calculated Vote
2004 EPoll Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 19.36 14.30% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 63.59 1.79 65.38 3.03 62.35 96.8% 60.36 44.6% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 57.47 1.62 59.09 2.74 56.35 96.8% 54.55 40.3% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.23 0.03 1.26 0.06 1.20 96.8% 1.17 0.86% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.30 3.45 125.74 5.83 119.91 116.1 135.43 100% 57.23% 41.10% 1.67%
Cast 135.43 77.51 55.67 2.26
Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98
_________________________________________________________________________________
2008 Final Pre-election Polls
The Obama / McCain RV-LV share (73.3-26.7%) matched the NEP new voter share (71-27%).
The 1052 difference between the 3-poll RV sample (8581) and the LV subset (7529)
comprised 12.3% of the total RV sample.
Assuming 3% uncounted votes, there were approximately 19.3m newly registered voters
and others who did not vote in 2008 (14.3% of 135.37m).
RV Sample Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 2824 53 40 13
ABC 2762 54 41 13
Pew 2995 50 39 11
Total 8581 52.27 39.97 12.30
LV Sample Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 2472 53 42 11
ABC 2470 53 44 9
Pew 2587 49 42 7
Total 7529 51.63 42.66 9.0
RV and LV Samples
Total 7916 RV 7099 LV
Obama McCain Obama McCain
Gallup 1497 1130 1310 1038
ABC 1491 1132 1309 1087
Pew 1498 1168 1268 1087
Total 4486 3430 3887 3212
Share 52.3% 40.0% 51.6% 42.7%
RV-LV Obama McCain Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 278 187 91 67.1% 32.9% 34.3%
ABC 228 182 46 80.0% 20.0% 60.0%
Pew 311 230 82 73.8% 26.2% 47.6%
Total 817 599 218 73.3% 26.7% 46.6%
Final NEP new voters 71% 27% 44.0%
RV Sample Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 2824 53 40 13
ABC 2762 54 41 13
Pew 2995 50 39 11
Total 8581 52.3 40.0 12.3
______________________________________________________________________________
2004 Final Pre-election Polls
The Kerry/Bush vote split of the difference (1335)in sample between the RV and LV
subset (57.842.2%) matched the 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll 'New Voter'
shares: 57412%. The 1769 difference i.e. 5-poll RV samples (10310) exclusive of
their LV subsets (8541) comprised 17.2% of the RV total sample.
In 2004, there were approximately 21.4 million newly registered and other new voters
(DNV 2000) 17% of the 125.74m total votes cast.
Of the 21.4 million, approximately 13.8m (11% of 125.74) were first-time voters.
Kerry won 55% of first-timers. The average pre-election poll projected turnout of
registered voters was 82.8% (117m of 142m registered). The census reported an 88.5%
voter turnout (125.7m). There were 122.3m votes recorded.
0.75 0.25
Actual Poll Undecided voters allocated
RV Poll Sample Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush Spread
11/1 CBS 1125 46 47 -1 50.50 48.50 2.0
10/31 Fox 1400 48 45 3 52.50 46.50 6.0
10/31 Gallup 1866 48 46 2 51.75 47.25 4.5
10/31 ABC 3511 48 47 1 51.00 48.00 3.0
10/30 Pew 2408 46 45 1 52.00 47.00 5.0
Average 2062 47.2 46.0 1.2 51.55 47.45 4.1
LV Poll Sample Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush Spread Proj.Turnout
11/1 CBS 939 47 49 -2 49.25 49.75 -0.5 83.5%
10/31 Fox 1200 48 46 2 51.75 47.25 4.5 85.7%
10/31 Gallup 1573 49 49 0 49.75 49.25 0.5 84.3%
10/31 ABC 2904 48 49 -1 49.50 49.50 0.0 82.7%
10/30 Pew 1925 48 51 -3 48.00 51.00 -3.0 79.9%
Average 1708 48 48.8 -0.8 49.65 49.35 0.3 82.8%
RV and LV Samples
9629 RV 8294 LV
Kerry Bush Kerry Bush
CBS 518 529 441 460
Fox 672 630 576 552
Gallup 896 858 771 771
ABC 1685 1650 1394 1423
Pew 1108 1084 924 982
Total 4878 4751 4106 4188
47.3% 46.1% 48.1% 49.0%
RV-LV Kerry Bush Kerry% Bush% Spread
CBS 145 76 69 52.6% 47.4% 5.2%
Fox 174 96 78 55.2% 44.8% 10.3%
Gallup 213 125 88 58.8% 41.2% 17.6%
ABC 519 291 227 56.2% 43.8% 12.4%
Pew 286 184 102 64.3% 35.7% 28.7%
Total 1335 772 563 57.8% 42.2% 15.6%
NEP 12:22am new 57.0% 41.0% 16.0%
Regression analysis: Kerry Vote share vs. Registered Voter Turnout
Two-party 75% UVA
y=.15+.41x y=.012+.581x
Kerry Turnout Kerry Turnout
47.8% 80% 47.7% 80%
48.2% 81% 48.3% 81%
48.6% 82% 48.8% 82%
49.0% 83% 49.4% 83% Pre-election (5-poll) projected turnout
49.4% 84% 50.0% 84%
49.9% 85% 50.6% 85%
50.3% 86% 51.2% 86%
50.7% 87% 51.7% 87%
51.1% 88% 52.3% 88%
51.3% 88.5% 52.6% 88.5% Census post-election turnout
51.5% 89% 52.9% 89%
51.9% 90% 53.5% 90%
Pre-election Polls
Registered voter (RV) polls include all registered new voters; likely-voter (LV)
polls are a subset of RV polls and exclude many newly registered.
In general, only LV polls are posted during the final two weeks before the election.
LV polls are a subset of the total (RV) sample and have consistently understated
the Democratic vote.
RV samples are more accurate, especially when there is a heavy turnout of new voters (1992, 2004, 2008).
The Census reported that 88.5% of registered voters turned out on 2004.
The average projected turnout of 5 final pre-election RV/LV polls was 82.8%.
A regression analysis of Kerrys vote share vs. registered voter turnout indicated
he had a 52.6% share assuming a 75% UVA.Assuming the two-party vote, Kerry had a
51.3% share. There was a strong 0.89 correlation ratio between Kerrys LV poll share
and LV/RV turnout.The pre-election polls underestimated voter turnout by 6%. Newly
registered Democrats came out in force.
2008 Final Pre-election Polls
The Obama / McCain RV-LV share (73.3-26.7%) matched the NEP new voter share (71-27%).
The 1052 difference between the 3-poll RV sample (8581) and the LV subset (7529)
comprised 12.3% of the total RV sample.
Assuming 3% uncounted votes, there were approximately 19.3m newly registered voters
and others who did not vote in 2008 (14.3% of 135.37m).
2004 Final Pre-election Polls
The Kerry/Bush vote split of the difference (1335)in sample between the RV and LV
subset (57.842.2%) matched the 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll 'New Voter'
shares: 57412%. The 1769 difference i.e. 5-poll RV samples (10310) exclusive of
their LV subsets (8541) comprised 17.2% of the RV total sample.
In 2004, there were approximately 21.4 million newly registered and other new voters
(DNV 2000) 17% of the 125.74m total votes cast.
Of the 21.4 million, approximately 13.8m (11% of 125.74) were first-time voters.
Kerry won 55% of first-timers. The average pre-election poll projected turnout of
registered voters was 82.8% (117m of 142m registered). The census reported an 88.5%
voter turnout (125.7m). There were 122.3m votes recorded.
New Voters
According to the 1988-2004 National Exit Polls, the Democrats won new voters by an
average 14% margin.
2008 Obama 71-27%
2004 Kerry 57-41%
2000 Gore 52-43%
1996 Clinton 54-34%
1992 Clinton 46-32%
The calculations below confirm that new voters comprise the difference (RVLV)
between registered (RV) and likely voter (LV) sample-size.
The Obama/McCain share of the difference was 73.3-26.7%, closely matching the 71-27% NEP new voter share.
The Kerry/Bush share of the difference was 57.8-42.2%, closely matching the 57-41% NEP new voter share.
The number of new voters is a function of voter mortality and turnout.
New voters = current vote (prior vote- mortality) * prior voter turnout
2008
Based on 2008 votes cast (135.43) and 2004 (125.74):
4 year Mortality 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters: 96.80%
DNV in 2008 = 14.30%
New 2008 voters = 19.36 million
= 135.43 (125.74 5.83)* 0.9680 = 135.43 119.91*.9680 = 135.43- 116.07
2004
Based on 2004 votes cast (125.74) and 2000 votes cast (110.83):
4 year Mortality: 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters: 98.51%
DNV in 2004 = 17.20%
New 2004 voters = 21.63 million
= 125.74 (110.83 5.14)* 0.9851 = 125.74 105.69*.9851= 125.74- 104.11
DNV = (RV-LV) / RV
New voter share = (registered- likely)/registered
Returning voters (LV)
LV = (Current Cast- Prior Cast + Mortality)* Turnout of prior voters
_________________________________________________________________________________
Assumptions: 1992
4 year Mortality 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters 97.94%
Year 1992 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
DNV 16.16% 16.16% 9.00% 13.96% 17.20% 14.30%
Reg 126.58 126.58 127.66 129.55 142.07 157
Cast 113.87 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74 135.43
Record 104.42 104.42 96.28 105.42 122.30 131.37
Prior 102.22 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74
Change 11.65 11.65 -8.85 5.81 14.91 9.69
Mort. 4.74 5.12% 5.04% 4.96% 4.88% 4.80%
5.23 5.74 5.21 5.41 6.04
Prior Still Living 97.48
Turnout Prior Living 95.47
New= Cast-Turnout 18.40
DNV % Cast 16.16% (RV-LV) / RV
Return voters (LV) 83.84%
Cast/ Registered 89.96% Turnout of current election voters (LV)
1992 Turnout of prior election voters (LV)
4 year 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 97.94% 99% 100%
DNV New voters % of total cast
5.12% 23.34% 22.49% 21.64% 20.79% 19.94% 19.09% 18.23% 17.38% 16.58% 15.68% 14.83%
4.88% 23.15% 22.30% 21.44% 20.59% 19.73% 18.88% 18.03% 17.17% 16.37% 15.47% 14.61%
4.64% 22.96% 22.10% 21.24% 20.39% 19.53% 18.68% 17.82% 16.96% 16.16% 15.25% 14.40%
4.40% 22.76% 21.90% 21.05% 20.19% 19.33% 18.47% 17.61% 16.76% 15.95% 15.04% 14.18%
4.16% 22.57% 21.71% 20.85% 19.99% 19.13% 18.27% 17.41% 16.55% 15.74% 14.83% 13.97%
DNV New voters
5.12% 26.58 25.61 24.64 23.67 22.70 21.73 20.76 19.79 18.88 17.85 16.88
4.88% 26.36 25.39 24.42 23.44 22.47 21.50 20.53 19.56 18.64 17.61 16.64
4.64% 26.14 25.17 24.19 23.22 22.24 21.27 20.29 19.32 18.40 17.37 16.39
4.40% 25.92 24.94 23.97 22.99 22.01 21.03 20.06 19.08 18.16 17.12 16.15
4.16% 25.70 24.72 23.74 22.76 21.78 20.80 19.82 18.84 17.92 16.88 15.90
1992 Calculated Vote
1988 Record Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Clinton Bush Other
DNV 18.43 16.19% 46% 32% 22%
Dukakis 41.81 7.95 49.76 2.31 47.45 97.94% 46.47 40.8% 83% 5% 12%
Bush 48.89 2.65 51.54 2.39 49.15 97.94% 48.13 42.3% 21% 59% 20%
Other 0.90 0.00 0.90 0.04 0.86 97.94% 0.84 0.74% 50% 50% 0%
Total 91.60 10.60 102.19 4.74 97.45 95.4 113.88 100% 50.56% 32.53% 16.91%
Cast 113.88 57.58 37.04 19.26
Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54%
104.42 44.91 39.11 20.41
_________________________________________________________________________________
Assumptions: 1996
4 year Mortality 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters 88.01%
Year 1996 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
DNV 9.00% 16.16% 9.00% 13.96% 17.20% 14.30%
Reg 127.66 126.58 127.66 129.55 142.07 157
Cast 105.02 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74 135.43
Record 96.28 104.42 96.28 105.42 122.30 131.37
Prior 113.87 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74
Change -8.85 11.65 -8.85 5.81 14.91 9.69
Mort. 5.28 5.12% 5.04% 4.96% 4.88% 4.80%
5.23 5.74 5.21 5.41 6.04
Prior Still Living 108.59
Turnout Prior Living 95.57
New= Cast-Turnout 9.45
DNV % Cast 9.00% (RV-LV) / RV
Return voters (LV) 91.00%
Cast/ Registered 82.27% Turnout of current election voters (LV)
1996 Turnout of prior election voters (LV)
4 year 86% 87% 88.01% 89% 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96%
DNV New voters % of total cast
5.12% 11.53% 10.50% 9.46% 8.43% 7.40% 6.37% 5.34% 4.32% 3.29% 2.26% 1.23%
4.88% 11.30% 10.27% 9.23% 8.20% 7.17% 6.14% 5.10% 4.07% 3.04% 2.01% 0.98%
4.64% 11.08% 10.05% 9.00% 7.97% 6.93% 5.90% 4.87% 3.83% 2.80% 1.76% 0.73%
4.40% 10.86% 9.82% 8.77% 7.74% 6.70% 5.66% 4.63% 3.59% 2.55% 1.52% 0.48%
4.16% 10.63% 9.59% 8.54% 7.50% 6.46% 5.43% 4.39% 3.35% 2.31% 1.27% 0.23%
DNV New voters
5.12% 12.11 11.03 9.93 8.85 7.77 6.69 5.61 4.53 3.45 2.37 1.29
4.88% 11.87 10.79 9.69 8.61 7.53 6.44 5.36 4.28 3.19 2.11 1.03
4.64% 11.64 10.55 9.45 8.37 7.28 6.20 5.11 4.02 2.94 1.85 0.77
4.40% 11.40 10.31 9.21 8.12 7.04 5.95 4.86 3.77 2.68 1.59 0.50
4.16% 11.17 10.07 8.97 7.88 6.79 5.70 4.61 3.52 2.42 1.33 0.24
1996 Calculated Vote
1992 Record Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Clinton Dole Other
DNV 9.45 9.00% 54% 34% 12%
Clinton 44.91 7.09 52.00 2.41 49.59 88.01% 43.64 41.6% 85% 9% 6%
Bush 39.11 0.95 40.05 1.86 38.19 88.01% 33.61 32.0% 13% 82% 5%
Other 20.41 1.42 21.83 1.01 20.81 88.01% 18.32 17.44% 45% 35% 20%
Total 104.43 9.45 113.88 5.28 108.59 95.6 105.02 100% 52.19% 39.15% 8.66%
Cast 105.02 54.81 41.12 9.10
Recorded 49.23% 40.72% 10.05%
96.28 47.40 39.20 9.68
_________________________________________________________________________________
Assumptions: 2000
4 year Mortality 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters 95.22%
Year 2000 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
DNV 13.96% 16.16% 9.00% 13.96% 17.20% 14.30%
Reg 129.55 126.58 127.66 129.55 142.07 157
Cast 110.83 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74 135.43
Record 105.42 104.42 96.28 105.42 122.30 131.37
Prior 105.02 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74
Change 5.81 11.65 -8.85 5.81 14.91 9.69
Mort. 4.87 5.12% 5.04% 4.96% 4.88% 4.80%
5.23 5.74 5.21 5.41 6.04
Prior Still Living 100.15
Turnout Prior Living 95.36
New= Cast-Turnout 15.47
DNV % Cast 13.96% (RV-LV) / RV
Return voters (LV) 86.04%
Cast/ Registered 85.55% Turnout of current election voters (LV)
2000 Turnout of prior election voters (LV)
4 year 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95.22% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100%
DNV New voters % of total cast
5.12% 19.08% 18.19% 17.29% 16.39% 15.49% 14.39% 13.49% 12.79% 11.89% 10.99% 10.09%
4.88% 18.88% 17.98% 17.08% 16.18% 15.27% 14.17% 13.27% 12.57% 11.67% 10.77% 9.87%
4.64% 18.68% 17.77% 16.87% 15.96% 15.06% 13.96% 13.05% 12.35% 11.45% 10.54% 9.64%
4.40% 18.47% 17.56% 16.66% 15.75% 14.85% 13.74% 12.84% 12.13% 11.22% 10.32% 9.41%
4.16% 18.27% 17.36% 16.45% 15.54% 14.63% 13.53% 12.62% 11.91% 11.00% 10.09% 9.18%
DNV New voters
5.12% 21.15 20.15 19.16 18.16 17.17 15.95 14.95 14.18 13.18 12.18 11.19
4.88% 20.92 19.93 18.93 17.93 16.93 15.71 14.71 13.93 12.93 11.93 10.93
4.64% 20.70 19.70 18.69 17.69 16.69 15.47 14.47 13.69 12.69 11.68 10.68
4.40% 20.47 19.47 18.46 17.46 16.45 15.23 14.23 13.44 12.44 11.43 10.43
4.16% 20.24 19.24 18.23 17.22 16.22 14.99 13.98 13.20 12.19 11.19 10.18
2000 Calculated Vote
1996 Record Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV 15.46 13.95% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 47.40 6.56 53.96 2.50 51.46 95.22% 49.00 44.2% 82% 15% 3%
Dole 39.20 1.57 40.77 1.89 38.88 95.22% 37.02 33.4% 7% 91% 2%
Other 9.68 0.61 10.29 0.48 9.81 95.22% 9.34 8.43% 40% 40% 20%
Total 96.28 8.75 105.02 4.87 100.15 95.4 110.83 100% 49.22% 46.40% 4.38%
Cast 110.83 54.55 51.43 4.85
Recorded 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
105.42 51.00 50.46 3.95
_________________________________________________________________________________
Assumptions: 2004
4 year Mortality 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters 98.51%
Year 2004 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
DNV 17.20% 16.16% 9.00% 13.96% 17.20% 14.30%
Reg 142.07 126.58 127.66 129.55 142.07 157
Cast 125.74 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74 135.43
Record 122.30 104.42 96.28 105.42 122.30 131.37
Prior 110.83 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74
Change 14.91 11.65 -8.85 5.81 14.91 9.69
Mort. 5.14 5.12% 5.04% 4.96% 4.88% 4.80%
5.23 5.74 5.21 5.41 6.04
Prior Still Living 105.69
Turnout Prior Living 104.11
New= Cast-Turnout 21.63
DNV % Cast 17.20% (RV-LV) / RV
Return voters (LV) 82.80%
Cast/ Registered 88.51% Turnout of current election voters (LV)
2004 Turnout of prior election voters (LV)
4 year 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98.51% 99% 100%
DNV New voters % of total cast
5.12% 24.73% 23.90% 23.06% 22.22% 21.39% 20.55% 19.72% 18.88% 17.62% 17.21% 16.37%
4.88% 24.54% 23.70% 22.87% 22.03% 21.19% 20.35% 19.51% 18.67% 17.41% 17.00% 16.16%
4.64% 24.35% 23.51% 22.67% 21.83% 20.99% 20.15% 19.31% 18.47% 17.20% 16.79% 15.95%
4.40% 24.16% 23.32% 22.48% 21.63% 20.79% 19.95% 19.11% 18.26% 16.99% 16.58% 15.74%
4.16% 23.97% 23.13% 22.28% 21.44% 20.59% 19.75% 18.90% 18.06% 16.78% 16.37% 15.52%
DNV New voters
5.12% 31.10 30.05 29.00 27.95 26.89 25.84 24.79 23.74 22.15 21.64 20.58
4.88% 30.86 29.81 28.75 27.70 26.64 25.59 24.54 23.48 21.89 21.37 20.32
4.64% 30.62 29.56 28.51 27.45 26.39 25.34 24.28 23.22 21.63 21.11 20.05
4.40% 30.38 29.32 28.26 27.20 26.14 25.08 24.02 22.97 21.37 20.85 19.79
4.16% 30.14 29.08 28.02 26.96 25.89 24.83 23.77 22.71 21.10 20.58 19.52
2004 Calculated Vote
2000 Record Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 21.63 17.20% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.00 4.06 55.06 2.55 52.51 98.51% 51.72 41.1% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 50.46 1.19 51.65 2.40 49.25 98.51% 48.52 38.6% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.95 0.16 4.12 0.19 3.92 98.51% 3.87 3.07% 64% 17% 19%
Total 105.42 5.41 110.83 5.14 105.68 104.11 125.74 100% 53.07% 45.60% 1.34%
Cast 125.74 66.72 57.33 1.68
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23
_________________________________________________________________________________
2008 CALCULATION OF 96.80% TURNOUT ASSUMING 1.16% ANNUAL VOTER MORTALITY
Adjust Turnout of Prior Living voters to force a match to turnout of new voters
New voters = (Registered - Likely) /Registered
DNV = (RV-LV)/ RV
Returning voters = LV = (Current Cast- Prior Cast + mortality)* Turnout of Prior
Assumptions: 2008
4 year Mortality 4.64%
Turnout of prior voters 96.80%
Year 2008 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
DNV 14.30% 16.16% 9.00% 13.96% 17.20% 14.30%
Reg 157 126.58 127.66 129.55 142.07 157
Cast 135.43 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74 135.43
Record 131.37 104.42 96.28 105.42 122.30 131.37
Prior 125.74 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74
Change 9.69 11.65 -8.85 5.81 14.91 9.69
Mort. 5.83 5.12% 5.04% 4.96% 4.88% 4.80%
5.23 5.74 5.21 5.41 6.04
Prior Still Living 119.91
Turnout Prior Living 116.06
New= Cast-Turnout 19.37
DNV % Cast 14.30% (RV-LV) / RV
Return voters (LV) 85.70%
Cast/ Registered 86.26% Turnout of current election voters (LV)
2008 Turnout of prior election voters (LV)
4 year 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 96.80% 98% 99% 100%
DNV New voters % of total cast
5.12% 20.72% 19.84% 18.96% 18.08% 17.19% 16.31% 15.43% 14.73% 13.67% 12.79% 11.91%
4.88% 20.52% 19.63% 18.75% 17.87% 16.98% 16.10% 15.22% 14.51% 13.45% 12.57% 11.69%
4.64% 20.32% 19.43% 18.55% 17.66% 16.78% 15.89% 15.00% 14.30% 13.23% 12.35% 11.46%
4.40% 20.12% 19.23% 18.34% 17.45% 16.57% 15.68% 14.79% 14.08% 13.02% 12.13% 11.24%
4.16% 19.92% 19.03% 18.14% 17.25% 16.36% 15.47% 14.58% 13.86% 12.80% 11.91% 11.02%
DNV New voters
5.12% 28.06 26.87 25.67 24.48 23.29 22.09 20.90 19.95 18.51 17.32 16.13
4.88% 27.79 26.59 25.39 24.20 23.00 21.81 20.61 19.65 18.22 17.02 15.83
4.64% 27.51 26.32 25.12 23.92 22.72 21.52 20.32 19.36 17.92 16.72 15.52
4.40% 27.24 26.04 24.84 23.64 22.44 21.23 20.03 19.07 17.63 16.42 15.22
4.16% 26.97 25.77 24.56 23.36 22.15 20.95 19.74 18.78 17.33 16.13 14.92
2008 Calculated Vote
2004 EPoll Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 19.36 14.30% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 63.59 1.79 65.38 3.03 62.35 96.8% 60.36 44.6% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 57.47 1.62 59.09 2.74 56.35 96.8% 54.55 40.3% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.23 0.03 1.26 0.06 1.20 96.8% 1.17 0.86% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.30 3.45 125.74 5.83 119.91 116.1 135.43 100% 57.23% 41.10% 1.67%
Cast 135.43 77.51 55.67 2.26
Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98
_________________________________________________________________________________
2008 Final Pre-election Polls
The Obama / McCain RV-LV share (73.3-26.7%) matched the NEP new voter share (71-27%).
The 1052 difference between the 3-poll RV sample (8581) and the LV subset (7529)
comprised 12.3% of the total RV sample.
Assuming 3% uncounted votes, there were approximately 19.3m newly registered voters
and others who did not vote in 2008 (14.3% of 135.37m).
RV Sample Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 2824 53 40 13
ABC 2762 54 41 13
Pew 2995 50 39 11
Total 8581 52.27 39.97 12.30
LV Sample Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 2472 53 42 11
ABC 2470 53 44 9
Pew 2587 49 42 7
Total 7529 51.63 42.66 9.0
RV and LV Samples
Total 7916 RV 7099 LV
Obama McCain Obama McCain
Gallup 1497 1130 1310 1038
ABC 1491 1132 1309 1087
Pew 1498 1168 1268 1087
Total 4486 3430 3887 3212
Share 52.3% 40.0% 51.6% 42.7%
RV-LV Obama McCain Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 278 187 91 67.1% 32.9% 34.3%
ABC 228 182 46 80.0% 20.0% 60.0%
Pew 311 230 82 73.8% 26.2% 47.6%
Total 817 599 218 73.3% 26.7% 46.6%
Final NEP new voters 71% 27% 44.0%
RV Sample Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 2824 53 40 13
ABC 2762 54 41 13
Pew 2995 50 39 11
Total 8581 52.3 40.0 12.3
______________________________________________________________________________
2004 Final Pre-election Polls
The Kerry/Bush vote split of the difference (1335)in sample between the RV and LV
subset (57.842.2%) matched the 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll 'New Voter'
shares: 57412%. The 1769 difference i.e. 5-poll RV samples (10310) exclusive of
their LV subsets (8541) comprised 17.2% of the RV total sample.
In 2004, there were approximately 21.4 million newly registered and other new voters
(DNV 2000) 17% of the 125.74m total votes cast.
Of the 21.4 million, approximately 13.8m (11% of 125.74) were first-time voters.
Kerry won 55% of first-timers. The average pre-election poll projected turnout of
registered voters was 82.8% (117m of 142m registered). The census reported an 88.5%
voter turnout (125.7m). There were 122.3m votes recorded.
0.75 0.25
Actual Poll Undecided voters allocated
RV Poll Sample Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush Spread
11/1 CBS 1125 46 47 -1 50.50 48.50 2.0
10/31 Fox 1400 48 45 3 52.50 46.50 6.0
10/31 Gallup 1866 48 46 2 51.75 47.25 4.5
10/31 ABC 3511 48 47 1 51.00 48.00 3.0
10/30 Pew 2408 46 45 1 52.00 47.00 5.0
Average 2062 47.2 46.0 1.2 51.55 47.45 4.1
LV Poll Sample Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush Spread Proj.Turnout
11/1 CBS 939 47 49 -2 49.25 49.75 -0.5 83.5%
10/31 Fox 1200 48 46 2 51.75 47.25 4.5 85.7%
10/31 Gallup 1573 49 49 0 49.75 49.25 0.5 84.3%
10/31 ABC 2904 48 49 -1 49.50 49.50 0.0 82.7%
10/30 Pew 1925 48 51 -3 48.00 51.00 -3.0 79.9%
Average 1708 48 48.8 -0.8 49.65 49.35 0.3 82.8%
RV and LV Samples
9629 RV 8294 LV
Kerry Bush Kerry Bush
CBS 518 529 441 460
Fox 672 630 576 552
Gallup 896 858 771 771
ABC 1685 1650 1394 1423
Pew 1108 1084 924 982
Total 4878 4751 4106 4188
47.3% 46.1% 48.1% 49.0%
RV-LV Kerry Bush Kerry% Bush% Spread
CBS 145 76 69 52.6% 47.4% 5.2%
Fox 174 96 78 55.2% 44.8% 10.3%
Gallup 213 125 88 58.8% 41.2% 17.6%
ABC 519 291 227 56.2% 43.8% 12.4%
Pew 286 184 102 64.3% 35.7% 28.7%
Total 1335 772 563 57.8% 42.2% 15.6%
NEP 12:22am new 57.0% 41.0% 16.0%
Regression analysis: Kerry Vote share vs. Registered Voter Turnout
Two-party 75% UVA
y=.15+.41x y=.012+.581x
Kerry Turnout Kerry Turnout
47.8% 80% 47.7% 80%
48.2% 81% 48.3% 81%
48.6% 82% 48.8% 82%
49.0% 83% 49.4% 83% Pre-election (5-poll) projected turnout
49.4% 84% 50.0% 84%
49.9% 85% 50.6% 85%
50.3% 86% 51.2% 86%
50.7% 87% 51.7% 87%
51.1% 88% 52.3% 88%
51.3% 88.5% 52.6% 88.5% Census post-election turnout
51.5% 89% 52.9% 89%
51.9% 90% 53.5% 90%