The Excel Delegate Calculator
TruthIsAll

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.htm

April 24, 2008

The Pennsylvania primary only served to postpone the inevitable: Clinton's 9-point puts Obama is in a much stronger position to get the 2024 total delegates he needs to win the nomination.

Obama currently leads Clinton by 1488-1338 in pledged delegates.
On Feb. 20, Clinton led Obama by 81 super delegates (246-165). Her lead has been cut to 24 (262-238).

For Clinton to catch Obama in pledged delegates, she needs to win 69% of the vote in the remaining primaries.

If Obama wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he will need just 32% of the 295 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination.

The 2008 Primaries: Footprints of Election Fraud
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimariesLinks.htm


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator_26426_image001.png


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator_14412_image001.png

This is very interesting information. And sure to worry a few!

Doesn't seem that they are doing the job they were installed to do... Protect the gates of nomination from the barbarians and other non-DLC'ers.

Guess this explains why Bill went ballistic at an event with the supers recently.

Intersting.


Peace.

HRC won the primary, Obama the caucus. You have him winning the vote percentage (51-47) which I don't think he did even by winning the caucus. What gives? Do you need to tweak your numbers or did you just transpose numbers when typing?

Otherwise great.

Good catch.

Is it realistic to expect HRC to get 58% in WV and KY?

Where did you come up with the 55-45 splits in FL and MI?

The projections are estimates based on polls. Adjustments to the pledged delegates have virtually no effect on the final total delegate split. Check the bottom line in the model to view the effects of changes in Obama projected pledged delegates (i.e. vote shares) on the share of uncommitted super delegates he needs to win.

The uncommitted delegatres hold the key. Obama needs about 30% to win.


Note: I probably should have used 50-50 for FL and MI, but it makes no difference; they are not included in the final total delegate split.