TruthIsAll
07-05-2008, 11:45 PM
2008 Election Model
A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
TruthIsAll
Updated: July 6
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm
If a fraud-free election was held today, the model projects Obama as the winner with 348 electoral votes and 53.7% of the two-party vote. But past is prologue: we would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.
The Election Model includes two key fraud variable factors: uncounted and switched votes. These factors are never mentioned in election forecasting models which permeate the media and the internet. It’s 2008 and nothing on fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites. But then again, it’s understandable. Why should any of these interested parties discuss fraud when only a few Democratic politicians even dare to? No one wants to rock the boat. Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always been off the table in Congress.
The Election Model calculates projected vote shares and the electoral vote over a range of 36 uncounted and switched vote scenarios. The scenarios range from the True Vote (zero votes uncounted, zero switched) to Massive Fraud (5% uncounted, 5% switched). This sensitivity analysis tool enables one to view the effects of various combinations of uncounted and switched vote rates. Historical evidence shows that the vast majority of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts. Therefore, it is assumed that Obama will win 75% of uncounted votes.
The base case projection (348 EV; 53.7% 2-party vote share) assumes zero fraud. But if 4% of total votes cast are uncounted and there is no vote switching, the model projects Obama will only have 321 EV and 52.7%. McCain would need at least 4% of Obama's votes switched to his column to win the election. The only way he can win is to emulate Bush in 2004: significant vote-switching on touch screen DREs and optical scanners. Is it just coincidental that Karl Rove is advising McCain?
This sensitivity analysis tool enables one to view the effects of various combinations of uncounted vote rates and switched vote rates. It is assumed that 75% of uncounted votes will be Obama's. This is based on historical hard evidence which shows that the vast majority of uncounted ballots are found in Democratic minority precincts.
These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
Effect of uncounted and switched votes on Obama vote share.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_31043_image001.png
Effect of uncounted and switched votes on Obama electoral vote
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_28660_image001.png
A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
TruthIsAll
Updated: July 6
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm
If a fraud-free election was held today, the model projects Obama as the winner with 348 electoral votes and 53.7% of the two-party vote. But past is prologue: we would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.
The Election Model includes two key fraud variable factors: uncounted and switched votes. These factors are never mentioned in election forecasting models which permeate the media and the internet. It’s 2008 and nothing on fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites. But then again, it’s understandable. Why should any of these interested parties discuss fraud when only a few Democratic politicians even dare to? No one wants to rock the boat. Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always been off the table in Congress.
The Election Model calculates projected vote shares and the electoral vote over a range of 36 uncounted and switched vote scenarios. The scenarios range from the True Vote (zero votes uncounted, zero switched) to Massive Fraud (5% uncounted, 5% switched). This sensitivity analysis tool enables one to view the effects of various combinations of uncounted and switched vote rates. Historical evidence shows that the vast majority of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts. Therefore, it is assumed that Obama will win 75% of uncounted votes.
The base case projection (348 EV; 53.7% 2-party vote share) assumes zero fraud. But if 4% of total votes cast are uncounted and there is no vote switching, the model projects Obama will only have 321 EV and 52.7%. McCain would need at least 4% of Obama's votes switched to his column to win the election. The only way he can win is to emulate Bush in 2004: significant vote-switching on touch screen DREs and optical scanners. Is it just coincidental that Karl Rove is advising McCain?
This sensitivity analysis tool enables one to view the effects of various combinations of uncounted vote rates and switched vote rates. It is assumed that 75% of uncounted votes will be Obama's. This is based on historical hard evidence which shows that the vast majority of uncounted ballots are found in Democratic minority precincts.
These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
Effect of uncounted and switched votes on Obama vote share.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_31043_image001.png
Effect of uncounted and switched votes on Obama electoral vote
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_28660_image001.png