The 1988-2008 True Vote Election Calculator

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/19882008TrueVoteMath.htm

The model calculates a close approximation to the True Popular and Electoral Vote.
It analyzes state and national presidential elections from 1988-2008 using
recorded and uncounted votes, unadjusted state exit polls and National Exit
Poll vote shares.

The model determines:
- the effect of changes in vote shares and turnout on the popular and electoral vote.
- the required turnout of returning Democratic and Republican voters from the prior election to match the recorded vote.
- the number of state exit polls within a given percentage of the recorded vote.
- the number of state exit polls within a given percentage of the True vote.
- states which flipped from the Democrat to the Republican

State vote shares are derived from National Exit Poll shares by applying
the ratio of the state to national exit poll share.

Returning voters are calculated using the prior recorded vote and the unadjusted
exit poll. Since the recorded vote varies from the True Vote by the uncounted votes
at minimum, the unadjusted exit poll aggregate is the basis for determining a
feasible returning voter mix.

The Final NEP is always forced to match the official vote count. In 2004, 2006 and
2008 it indicated that there were millions more returning Bush voters than were
alive (i.e. required voter turnout exceeded 100%).

The Final National Exit Poll is the gift that keeps on giving. The model is
conservative; it uses the Final vote shares that were forced to match the recorded
vote. In 2004, Bush shares of new and returning voters were raised to implausible
levels to force the match. But it was not enough. The returning Bush/Gore voter mix
had to be raised to an impossible 43/37%.

In every election, the Democrats did much better than the official vote. The average
Democratic True Vote was 2-3% higher than the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate.

The model indicates that Dukakis won a close election in 1988. In every election
since, the Democrats easily won the True Vote.

In 1992, Clinton had 43% of the official vote. Bush had 38% and Perot 19%. Clinton's
True share was over 50%; he had approximately 521 EV. His recorded total was just
370.In 2000, Gore won the official vote by 540k, but more than 5 million ballots
were uncounted. His True margin was 4 million.

Prior to 2004, millions of ballots were spoiled and uncounted. Along came HAVA.
The ballots are now stuffed and switched in cyberspace.

THE DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN ROBBED OVER AND OVER AGAIN AND KNOW IT.
BUT THEY NEVER DISCUSS THE FRAUD.

THE REPUBLICANS CAN'T WIN A FAIR ELECTION.
THERE ARE MORE POOR DEMOCRATS THAN THERE ARE RICH REPUBLICANS.

BUT THE FICTION OF A 2-PARTY SYSTEM MUST BE MAINTAINED.
EVEN IF IT MEANS LETTING THE REPUBLICANS WIN.





Turnout Required to Match the Recorded Vote
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average

Dem 99.6% 97.2% 99.7% 98.4% 90.1% 75.1% 97.4% 98.9% 95.3% 89.4% 94.1%
Rep 123.1% 102.6% 101.5% 102.9% 109.2% 121.6% 91.3% 99.2% 111.9% 105.7% 106.9%

_______________________________________________________________________________

Matching to the 2008 Recorded Vote

Phantom Bush voters brought Obamas margin from 22 million to 9.5.

Unadjusted state and preliminary national exit polls have not been released.
Wonder why.

Turnout of Prior
Cast Record Unctd Rate Mortal Dem Rep
2008 132,608 131,370 1,238 0.93% 4.88% 90.50% 114.15%
2004 125,737 122,294 3,443 2.74%

Voted National 2008 364 EV

2004 Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other Total
DNV 8.1% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0% 7,598 2,889 214 10,701
Kerry 43.1% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0% 50,791 5,136 1,141 57,068
Bush 47.9% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% 10,767 51,933 633 63,332
Other 0.9% 66.0% 24.0% 10.0% 796 289 121 1,206

Matched Vote 52.87% 45.54% 1.59% 69,951 60,247 2,109 132,308

Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69,457 59,935 1,978 131,370
Deviation 0.00% -0.09% 0.09% 494 312 132 938

Unadjusted exit polls have not been released.

__________________________________________________________________________


2008 True Vote

Obama won by over 20m votes.
More than double his recorded margin.
They could not flip more than 6 million votes (8% of Obama's total).


2004 2008 Turnout in 2008 Uncounted/stuffed share
Recorded Cast Unctd Alive Recorded Cast Unctd Mort Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Other
122,294 125,737 3,443 119,450 132,608 131,370 1,238 5.00% 97.00% 97.00% 75% 24% 1%
2.74% 0.93% 0% 100% 0%

National 2004 2004 Cast 2008
2004 Cast Recorded Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other Total
DNV - - - 16,397 12.4% 73.0% 27.0% 0.0% 11,970 4,427 0 16,397
Kerry 61,611 59,028 58,530 60,942 46.1% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0% 54,238 5,485 1,219 60,942
Bush 62,867 62,041 59,724 53,765 40.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% 9,140 44,087 538 53,765
Other 1,259 1,224 1,196 1,205 0.9% 66.0% 26.0% 8.0% 795 313 96 1,205

True 125,737 122,294 119,450 132,308 414 EV 57.55% 41.05% 1.40% 76,143 54,312 1,853 132,308

Recorded 364 EV 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69,457 59,935 1,978 131,370
Deviation 4.68% -4.57% -0.10% 6,686 (5,623) (125) 938

Exit Poll 364 EV 52.88% 45.61% 1.51% 69,475 59,917 1,979 131,370
Deviation 4.67% -4.56% -0.11% 6,668 (5,604) (126) 938



2008 Election Sensitivity Analysis - returning voters based on Prior Exit Poll

Obama National Share %Bush Obama National Share %Kerry
% DNV %Kerry 17% %Bush %DNV 89%
57.5% 87% 88% 89% 90% 91% 57.5% 71% 72% 73% 74% 75%

75% 56.9% 57.3% 57.8% 58.3% 58.7% 19% 58.1% 58.2% 58.4% 58.5% 58.6%
74% 56.8% 57.2% 57.7% 58.1% 58.6% 18% 57.7% 57.8% 58.0% 58.1% 58.2%
73% 56.6% 57.1% 57.5% 58.0% 58.5% 17% 57.3% 57.4% 57.5% 57.7% 57.8%
72% 56.5% 57.0% 57.4% 57.9% 58.3% 16% 56.9% 57.0% 57.1% 57.3% 57.4%
71% 56.4% 56.8% 57.3% 57.8% 58.2% 15% 56.5% 56.6% 56.7% 56.9% 57.0%

National Margin National Margin
(in thousands) (in thousands)
21,831 21,831
75% 20,049 21,268 22,487 23,705 24,924 19% 23,325 23,653 23,981 24,309 24,637
74% 19,721 20,940 22,159 23,377 24,596 18% 22,250 22,578 22,906 23,234 23,562
73% 19,393 20,612 21,831 23,049 24,268 17% 21,175 21,503 21,831 22,159 22,487
72% 19,065 20,284 21,503 22,722 23,940 16% 20,100 20,427 20,755 21,083 21,411
71% 18,737 19,956 21,175 22,394 23,612 15% 19,024 19,352 19,680 20,008 20,336

Electoral Vote Electoral Vote
414 414
75% 414 414 414 454 465 19% 420 454 454 465 465
74% 414 414 414 420 465 18% 414 414 414 414 448
73% 414 414 414 414 454 17% 414 414 414 414 414
72% 414 414 414 414 454 16% 414 414 414 414 414
71% 414 414 414 414 454 15% 403 414 414 414 414

_______________________________________________________________________________


2004

Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.
But Bush won the official 3.0m vote "mandate" in Cyberspace.


National True Vote Analysis
2000 National 2004 Turnout in 2004 Unctd / stuffed
Cast Official Unctd Alive Cast Official Unctd Mortal Gore Bush Gore Bush Other
110.8 105.4 5.4 105.3 125.7 122.3 3.4 6.1 98% 98% 75% 24% 1%
- 95.1% 4.9% 95.0% - 97.3% 2.7% 5.0% - - 0.0% 100.0% -

Vote (mil) Pct Share (%) Vote (mil)
2000 Cast Record Alive Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
DNV - - - 22.6 17.9 57.0 41.0 2.0 12.9 9.3 0.4 22.6
Gore 55.3 51.0 52.6 51.5 41.0 91.0 8.0 1.0 46.9 4.1 0.5 51.5
Bush 51.5 50.5 48.9 47.9 38.1 10.0 90.0 0.0 4.8 43.1 0.0 47.9
Other 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.0 64.0 17.1 18.9 2.4 0.6 0.7 3.7
True 110.8 105.4 105.3 125.7 379EV 53.2% 45.5% 1.3% 66.9 57.1 1.7 125.7

2000 Bush Gore Other Record 48.3 50.7 1.0 59.0 62.0 1.2 122.3
Record 47.9 48.4 3.8 Diff 5.0 -5.3 0.3 7.9 -4.9 0.4 3.4
ExitP 46.9 49.4 3.8 Exit Poll 51.9 47.1 1.0 63.5 57.6 1.2 122.3
Cast 46.5 49.9 3.6 Diff 1.3 -1.6 0.3 3.4 -0.4 0.4 3.4


2004 Election Sensitivity Analysis - returning voters based on Votes Cast

Pct Kerry Share of Gore Pct Kerry Share of DNV
of DNV 89% 90% 91% 92% 93% of Bush 55% 56% 57% 58% 59%

Kerry Vote Share Kerry Vote Share
59 52.8 53.2 53.6 54.0 54.4 12 53.6 53.8 54.0 54.2 54.3
58 52.6 53.0 53.4 53.8 54.2 11 53.2 53.4 53.6 53.8 54.0
57 52.4 52.8 53.2 53.6 54.0 10 52.9 53.0 53.2 53.4 53.6
56 52.2 52.6 53.0 53.5 53.9 9 52.5 52.7 52.8 53.0 53.2
55 52.0 52.5 52.9 53.3 53.7 8 52.1 52.3 52.5 52.6 52.8

Kerry Margin (millions) Kerry Margin (millions)
59 8.6 9.6 10.7 11.7 12.7 12 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.6
58 8.2 9.2 10.2 11.3 12.3 11 9.8 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.6
57 7.7 8.7 9.8 10.8 11.8 10 8.9 9.3 9.8 10.2 10.7
56 7.3 8.3 9.3 10.3 11.4 9 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.7
55 6.8 7.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 8 6.9 7.4 7.9 8.3 8.8

Kerry Electoral Vote Kerry Electoral Vote
59 351 370 390 390 398 12 390 390 390 390 398
58 351 357 390 390 398 11 390 390 390 390 390
57 351 351 379 390 390 10 360 373 379 390 390
56 346 351 373 390 390 9 351 351 351 357 379
55 346 351 360 390 390 8 346 351 351 351 351

_______________________________________________________________________________


2000

Gore won by 4 million votes (5.4m net uncounted)

2000 True Vote Analysis

Turnout Uncounted/stuffed share
Cast Recorded Unctd Unctd Mort Clinton Dole Clinton Dole Other
2000 110,825 105,421 5,404 4.88% 5.00% 96.0% 96.0% 75.0% 24.0% 1.0% unctd
1996 105,017 96,275 8,742 8.32% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% stuffed

National 2000 National
1996 1996 ExitP Cast Alive Voted Mix Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other Total
ExitP DNV - - - 17,030 15.4% 52.0% 43.0% 5.0% 8,855 7,323 851 17,030
50.2% Clinton 48,328 52,714 50,078 48,075 43.4% 82.0% 15.0% 3.0% 39,421 7,211 1,442 48,075
39.8% Dole 38,272 40,369 38,350 36,816 33.2% 7.0% 91.0% 2.0% 2,577 33,503 736 36,816
10.1% Other 9,676 9,763 9,275 8,904 8.0% 45.0% 43.0% 12.0% 4,007 3,829 1,069 8,904

True 96,275 105,013 97,704 110,825 344 EV 49.5% 46.8% 3.7% 54,861 51,866 4,099 110,825

Recorded 260 EV 48.4% 47.9% 3.8% 51,004 50,460 3,953 105,417
Deviation 1.1% -1.1% -0.1% 3,857 1,406 145 5,408

Exit Poll 274 EV 49.3% 47.0% 3.7% 51,952 49,558 3,907 105,417
Deviation 0.2% -0.2% 0.0% 2,908 2,308 191 5,408



2000 Election Sensitivity Analysis - returning voters based on Prior Exit Poll

Gore National Share %Dole Gore National Share %Clinton
% DNV %Clinton 7% %Dole %DNV 82%
50.0% 80% 81% 82% 83% 84% 50.0% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54%

54% 49.3% 49.8% 50.2% 50.7% 51.1% 9% 50.4% 50.5% 50.6% 50.8% 50.9%
53% 49.2% 49.7% 50.1% 50.6% 51.0% 8% 50.1% 50.2% 50.3% 50.4% 50.6%
52% 49.1% 49.5% 50.0% 50.4% 50.9% 7% 49.7% 49.8% 50.0% 50.1% 50.2%
51% 48.9% 49.4% 49.8% 50.3% 50.8% 6% 49.4% 49.5% 49.6% 49.8% 49.9%
50% 48.8% 49.3% 49.7% 50.2% 50.6% 5% 49.1% 49.2% 49.3% 49.4% 49.6%

National Margin National Margin
(in thousands) (in thousands)
4,075 4,075
54% 2,637 3,638 4,639 5,640 6,641 9% 4,983 5,265 5,547 5,829 6,111
53% 2,355 3,356 4,357 5,358 6,359 8% 4,247 4,529 4,811 5,093 5,375
52% 2,073 3,074 4,075 5,076 6,077 7% 3,511 3,793 4,075 4,357 4,639
51% 1,791 2,792 3,793 4,794 5,795 6% 2,774 3,056 3,338 3,620 3,902
50% 1,509 2,510 3,511 4,512 5,513 5% 2,038 2,320 2,602 2,884 3,166

Electoral Vote Electoral Vote
344 344
54% 286 313 359 359 372 9% 344 359 359 359 372
53% 286 313 344 359 372 8% 344 344 354 359 359
52% 286 286 344 359 372 7% 306 333 344 344 359
51% 279 286 333 354 359 6% 286 286 286 333 333
50% 279 286 306 344 359 5% 286 286 286 286 286


_______________________________________________________________________________


1996

A Clinton landslide, although Dole picked up most of the 19m defecting Perot voters.
8.7 million votes were uncounted.

1992 1996 Turnout Uncounted/stuffed share
Recorded Cast Unctd Alive Recorded Cast Unctd Mort Clinton Bush Clinton Bush Other
104,424 113,866 9,442 108,173 105,017 96,275 8,742 5.00% 88.00% 88.00% 75% 24% 1%
8.29% 8.32% 0% 100% 0%

National 1992 1992 Cast 1996
1992 Cast Recorded Alive Voted Mix Clinton Dole Other Clinton Dole Other Total
DNV - - - 6,246 5.9% 55.0% 33.0% 12.0% 3,436 2,061 750 6,246
Clinton 51,991 44,910 49,392 45,823 43.6% 85.0% 9.0% 6.0% 38,950 4,124 2,749 45,823
Bush 41,371 39,105 39,302 32,227 30.7% 13.0% 82.0% 5.0% 4,190 26,427 1,611 32,227
Other 20,504 20,410 19,479 20,716 19.7% 32.0% 42.0% 26.0% 6,629 8,701 5,386 20,716

True 113,866 104,424 108,173 105,013 437 EV 50.66% 39.34% 10.00% 53,204 41,313 10,496 105,013

Recorded 376 EV 49.23% 40.72% 10.05% 47,400 39,199 9,677 96,275
Deviation 1.43% -1.37% -0.06% 5,804 2,114 820 8,738

Exit Poll 405 EV 50.15% 39.85% 10.00% 48,283 38,363 9,629 96,275
Deviation 0.51% -0.51% -0.01% 4,921 2,949 867 8,738



1996 Election Sensitivity Analysis - returning voters based on Prior Exit Poll

Clinton National Share %Bush Clinton National Share %Clinton
% DNV %Clinton 13% %Bush %DNV 85%
50.7% 83% 84% 85% 86% 87% 50.7% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57%

57% 49.9% 50.3% 50.8% 51.2% 51.7% 15% 51.2% 51.2% 51.3% 51.3% 51.4%
56% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.2% 51.6% 14% 50.9% 50.9% 51.0% 51.0% 51.1%
55% 49.8% 50.2% 50.7% 51.1% 51.5% 13% 50.5% 50.6% 50.7% 50.7% 50.8%
54% 49.7% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.5% 12% 50.2% 50.3% 50.4% 50.4% 50.5%
53% 49.7% 50.1% 50.5% 51.0% 51.4% 11% 49.9% 50.0% 50.1% 50.1% 50.2%

National Margin National Margin
(in thousands) (in thousands)
11,891 11,891
57% 8,475 9,392 10,308 11,225 12,141 15% 12,930 13,055 13,180 13,305 13,430
56% 8,350 9,267 10,183 11,100 12,016 14% 12,286 12,411 12,536 12,661 12,786
55% 8,225 9,142 10,058 10,975 11,891 13% 11,641 11,766 11,891 12,016 12,141
54% 8,100 9,017 9,933 10,850 11,766 12% 10,997 11,122 11,247 11,372 11,497
53% 7,976 8,892 9,808 10,725 11,641 11% 10,352 10,477 10,602 10,727 10,852

Electoral Vote Electoral Vote
437 437
57% 410 423 437 437 437 15% 437 437 437 437 442
56% 410 423 437 437 437 14% 437 437 437 437 437
55% 410 410 437 437 437 13% 437 437 437 437 437
54% 410 410 429 437 437 12% 437 437 437 437 437
53% 410 410 416 437 437 11% 437 437 437 437 437



_______________________________________________________________________________

1992

Clinton won a major landslide - 521 electoral votes!
Almost 10 million uncounted votes.
Perot had over 19 million (mostly Bush) votes.


1988 1992 Turnout Uncounted/stuffed share
Recorded Cast Unctd Alive Recorded Cast Unctd Mort Dukakis Bush Dukakis Bush Other
91,595 102,224 10,629 97,113 113,866 104,424 9,442 5.00% 98.00% 98.00% 75% 24% 1%
10.40% 8.29% 0% 100% 0%

National 1988 1988 Cast 1992
1988 Cast Recorded Alive Voted Mix Clinton Bush Other Clinton Bush Other Total
DNV - - - 18,583 16.3% 46.0% 25.0% 29.0% 8,548 4,646 5,389 18,583
Dukakis 49,798 41,809 47,308 47,378 41.6% 83.0% 5.0% 12.0% 39,324 2,369 5,685 47,378
Bush 51,443 48,887 48,871 46,877 41.2% 21.0% 59.0% 20.0% 9,844 27,658 9,375 46,877
Other 1,005 899 955 1,027 0.9% 32.0% 30.0% 38.0% 329 308 390 1,027

True 102,247 91,595 97,134 113,866 521 EV 50.98% 30.72% 18.30% 58,045 34,981 20,840 113,866

Recorded 366 EV 43.01% 37.45% 19.54% 44,910 39,105 20,410 104,424
Deviation 7.97% -6.73% -1.24% 13,135 (4,124) 431 9,442

Exit Poll 432 EV 45.71% 34.83% 19.46% 47,732 36,372 20,320 104,424
Deviation 5.27% -4.11% -1.16% 10,313 (1,392) 521 9,442




1992 Election Sensitivity Analysis - returning voters based on Prior Exit Poll

Clinton National Share %Bush Clinton National Share %Dukakis
% DNV %Dukakis 21% %Bush %DNV 83%
51.0% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 51.0% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48%

48% 50.5% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 52.1% 23% 51.5% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.1%
47% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1% 51.6% 52.0% 22% 51.1% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.7%
46% 50.1% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 21% 50.7% 50.8% 51.0% 51.1% 51.3%
45% 50.0% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6% 20% 50.2% 50.4% 50.6% 50.7% 50.9%
44% 49.8% 50.2% 50.7% 51.1% 51.5% 19% 49.8% 50.0% 50.2% 50.3% 50.5%

National Margin National Margin
(in thousands) (in thousands)
23,064 23,064
48% 21,913 22,860 23,808 24,755 25,703 23% 24,196 24,568 24,940 25,311 25,683
47% 21,541 22,489 23,436 24,384 25,331 22% 23,259 23,630 24,002 24,374 24,745
46% 21,169 22,117 23,065 24,012 24,960 21% 22,321 22,693 23,064 23,436 23,808
45% 20,798 21,745 22,693 23,640 24,588 20% 21,384 21,755 22,127 22,499 22,870
44% 20,426 21,374 22,321 23,269 24,216 19% 20,446 20,818 21,189 21,561 21,933

Electoral Vote Electoral Vote
521 521
48% 521 521 526 526 526 23% 526 526 526 526 526
47% 521 521 526 526 526 22% 521 526 526 526 526
46% 511 521 521 526 526 21% 521 521 521 526 526
45% 511 521 521 526 526 20% 514 521 521 521 521
44% 511 511 521 526 526 19% 511 511 518 521 521

_______________________________________________________________________________


1988

Dukakis may have won.
There were 10.6 million net uncounted votes (net of stuffed ballots).
Assuming zero stuffed ballots, the Bush margin is reduced from 7 to 2 million.
Assuming 2 million stuffed Bush ballots, Dukakis wins by 1 million votes.
And that does not include switched votes. Do the math.


1984 1988 Turnout in 1984 Uncounted/stuffed share
Recorded Cast Unctd Alive Recorded Cast Unctd Mort Mondale Reagan Mondale Reagan Other
92,032 101,878 9,846 96,784 102,224 91,595 10,629 5.00% 95.00% 95.00% 75% 24% 1%
9.66% 10.40% 0% 100% 0%

National 1984 1984 Cast 1988
1984 Cast Recorded Alive Voted Mix Dukakis Bush Other Dukakis Bush Other Total
DNV - - - 10,296 10.1% 47.0% 51.0% 2.0% 4,839 5,251 206 10,296
Mondale 44,951 37,577 42,704 40,569 39.7% 92.0% 7.0% 1.0% 37,323 2,840 406 40,569
Reagan 56,815 54,455 53,974 51,275 50.1% 19.0% 80.0% 1.0% 9,742 41,020 513 51,275
Other 112 13 106 106 0.1% 49.0% 50.0% 1.0% 52 53 1 106

True 101,878 92,046 96,784 102,247 312 EV 50.82% 48.08% 1.10% 51,957 49,164 1,125 102,247

Recorded 104 EV 45.65% 53.37% 0.98% 41,809 48,887 899 91,595
Deviation 5.17% -5.29% 0.12% 10,148 277 227 10,652

ExitPoll 205 EV 46.72% 52.31% 0.97% 42,790 47,912 893 91,595
Deviation 4.10% -4.22% 0.13% 9,167 1,252 233 10,652



1988 Election Sensitivity Analysis - returning voters based on Prior Exit Poll

Dukakis National Share %Reagan Dukakis National Share %Mondale
% DNV %Mondale 19% %Reagan %DNV 92%
50.8% 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 50.8% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49%

49% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 21% 51.6% 51.7% 51.8% 51.9% 52.0%
48% 50.1% 50.5% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 20% 51.1% 51.2% 51.3% 51.4% 51.5%
47% 50.0% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6% 19% 50.6% 50.7% 50.8% 50.9% 51.0%
46% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1% 51.5% 18% 50.1% 50.2% 50.3% 50.4% 50.5%
45% 49.8% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 17% 49.6% 49.7% 49.8% 49.9% 50.0%

National Margin National Margin
(in thousands) (in thousands)
2,793 2,793
49% 1,582 2,393 3,205 4,016 4,827 21% 4,432 4,638 4,844 5,050 5,256
48% 1,376 2,187 2,999 3,810 4,621 20% 3,407 3,613 3,819 4,024 4,230
47% 1,170 1,981 2,793 3,604 4,415 19% 2,381 2,587 2,793 2,999 3,205
46% 964 1,775 2,587 3,398 4,210 18% 1,356 1,562 1,767 1,973 2,179
45% 758 1,570 2,381 3,192 4,004 17% 330 536 742 948 1,154

Electoral Vote Electoral Vote
312 312
49% 287 290 315 330 363 21% 348 363 363 363 363
48% 256 290 312 321 363 20% 321 321 321 324 348
47% 251 290 312 321 363 19% 290 305 312 312 315
46% 234 287 305 321 348 18% 282 287 287 290 305
45% 234 287 290 321 345 17% 225 234 234 234 245


_______________________________________________________________________________

Florida 2004

Not the Sunshine state when it comes to transparent elections.

Kerry won by 400,000 votes.
Whole lotta ballot stuffing.


Voted FL 2004
2000 Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
DNV 24.0% 56.0% 42.0% 2.0% 992 745 35 1,772
Gore 37.5% 90.8% 8.2% 1.0% 2,507 227 28 2,761
Bush 36.7% 9.8% 90.2% 0.0% 264 2,444 0 2,708
Other 1.8% 63.1% 17.9% 19.0% 82 23 25 130

True Vote 52.15% 46.65% 1.19% 3,845 3,439 88 7,372

Recorded 47.09% 52.10% 0.81% 3,584 3,965 62 7,610
Deviation 5.06% -5.44% 0.38% 261 -525 26 -238

Exit Poll (WPE) 50.99% 48.20% 0.81% 3,880 3,668 62 7,610
Deviation 1.16% -1.54% 0.38% -35 -228 26 -238



_______________________________________________________________________________

Florida 2000

Whole lot of uncounted ballots.

Gore won by over 60,000 votes
5000 Butterflies and 175,000 over-punched and under-punched ballots.

This is where it all started.

Turnout of 1996
Cast Record Unctd Rate Mortal Clinton Dole
2000 110,825 105,421 5,404 4.88% 4.88% 96.00% 96.00%
1996 105,017 96,275 8,742 8.32%

Voted FL 2000
1996 Mix Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other Total
DNV 11.1% 52.5% 42.5% 5.0% 351 285 33 669
Clinton 44.8% 82.2% 14.8% 3.0% 2,209 399 81 2,688
Dole 36.1% 7.1% 90.9% 2.0% 153 1,969 43 2,166
Other 8.0% 40.6% 39.4% 20.0% 196 190 97 483

True Vote 48.43% 47.34% 4.23% 2,909 2,843 254 6,006

Recorded 48.84% 48.85% 2.32% 2,912 2,913 138 5,963
Deviation -0.40% -1.51% 1.91% -3 -70 116 43

Exit Poll (WPE) 49.14% 48.55% 2.32% 2,930 2,895 138 5,963
Deviation -0.70% -1.21% 1.91% -21 -52 116 43



_______________________________________________________________________________

Beautiful Ohio

Whole lot of ballot stuffing and spoilage.

Kerry won by over 200,000 votes.
Conceded real quick.

Voted OH 2004

2000 Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
DNV 18.0% 57.4% 40.6% 2.0% 568 402 20 989
Gore 38.7% 91.1% 7.9% 1.0% 1,931 168 21 2,120
Bush 40.4% 10.1% 89.9% 0.0% 224 1,994 0 2,218
Other 2.9% 64.3% 16.7% 19.0% 101 26 30 158

True Vote 51.49% 47.22% 1.29% 2,824 2,590 71 5,485

Recorded 48.71% 50.81% 0.48% 2,741 2,860 27 5,628
Deviation 2.78% -3.59% 0.81% 83 -270 44 -143

Exit Poll (WPE) 54.01% 45.51% 0.48% 3,039 2,561 27 5,628
Deviation -2.52% 1.71% 0.81% -215 29 44 -143



_______________________________________________________________________________


New York 2004

New York, New York.
It's a wonderful town.
The Bronx is up and the Levers are down.

There are so many Democrats in NY that flipping 450,000 votes is not even noticed.
Why bother to investigate? Kerry won by 1.4 million recorded votes.
So what if he actually won by 2.3 million.

Willie Sutton said he robbed banks because that's where the money was.
And Rove knew where to pad the vote for the Bush mandate.
Urban Legend!

Bush improved on his 2000 shares in big cities while losing share in small
towns and rural areas. Right.


Kerry's true 2.3 million vote margin was cut to 1.4 million.
Damn levers.

Voted NY 2004
2000 Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
DNV 15.2% 66.0% 32.0% 2.0% 772 374 23 1,169
Gore 51.4% 92.9% 6.1% 1.0% 3,675 242 40 3,956
Bush 29.6% 12.1% 87.9% 0.0% 276 2,005 0 2,281
Other 3.8% 71.5% 9.5% 19.0% 209 28 55 292

True Vote 64.05% 34.41% 1.54% 4,931 2,649 118 7,698

Recorded 58.37% 40.08% 1.54% 4,314 2,963 114 7,391
Deviation 5.68% -5.68% -0.01% 617 -314 4 307

Exit Poll (WPE) 64.47% 33.98% 1.54% 4,765 2,512 114 7,391
Deviation -0.42% 0.42% -0.01% 166 137 4 307

2008 Recorded Exit Poll True
Obama McCain Margin EV Obama McCain Margin EV Obama McCain Margin EV
69,457 59,935 9,522 364 69,971 60,344 9,626 364 75,716 54,388 21,328 414
52.87% 45.62% 7.25% 52.88% 45.61% 7.28% 57.23% 41.11% 16.12%

AL 38.7% 60.3% -21.6% 38.7% 60.3% -21.6% 47.4% 51.1% -3.69%
AK 37.9% 59.4% -21.5% 37.9% 59.4% -21.5% 45.3% 52.9% -7.58%
AZ 44.9% 53.4% -8.5% 44.9% 53.4% -8.5% 51.4% 47.0% 4.38% 10
AR 38.9% 58.7% -19.9% 38.9% 58.7% -19.9% 48.5% 49.9% -1.37%
CA 61.0% 36.9% 24.0% 55 61.0% 36.9% 24.0% 55 65.0% 33.2% 31.81% 55

CO 53.7% 44.7% 9.0% 9 53.7% 44.7% 9.0% 9 57.1% 41.2% 15.83% 9
CT 60.6% 38.2% 22.4% 7 60.6% 38.2% 22.4% 7 66.0% 32.2% 33.75% 7
DE 61.9% 36.9% 25.0% 3 61.9% 36.9% 25.0% 3 65.8% 32.5% 33.35% 3
DC 92.5% 6.5% 85.9% 3 92.5% 6.5% 85.9% 3 90.3% 7.7% 82.55% 3
FL 50.9% 48.1% 2.8% 27 50.9% 48.1% 2.8% 27 56.3% 42.0% 14.32% 27

GA 46.9% 52.1% -5.2% 46.9% 52.1% -5.2% 50.8% 47.6% 3.24% 15
HI 71.8% 26.6% 45.3% 4 71.8% 26.6% 45.3% 4 66.3% 32.0% 34.36% 4
ID 36.0% 61.3% -25.3% 36.0% 61.3% -25.3% 40.3% 58.1% -17.77%
IL 61.9% 36.8% 25.1% 21 61.9% 36.8% 25.1% 21 62.3% 36.1% 26.17% 21
IN 49.9% 48.9% 1.0% 11 49.9% 48.9% 1.0% 11 50.2% 48.3% 1.89% 11

IA 53.9% 44.4% 9.5% 7 53.9% 44.4% 9.5% 7 56.0% 42.4% 13.54% 7
KS 41.6% 56.5% -14.9% 41.6% 56.5% -14.9% 43.9% 54.5% -10.65%
KY 41.1% 57.4% -16.2% 41.1% 57.4% -16.2% 45.5% 53.0% -7.57%
LA 39.9% 58.6% -18.6% 39.9% 58.6% -18.6% 47.3% 51.1% -3.83%
ME 57.7% 40.4% 17.3% 4 57.7% 40.4% 17.3% 4 60.4% 37.9% 22.52% 4

MD 61.9% 36.5% 25.4% 10 61.9% 36.5% 25.4% 10 65.0% 33.3% 31.74% 10
MA 61.8% 36.0% 25.8% 12 61.8% 36.0% 25.8% 12 68.3% 29.9% 38.36% 12
MI 57.4% 40.9% 16.5% 17 57.4% 40.9% 16.5% 17 59.6% 38.7% 20.93% 17
MN 54.1% 43.8% 10.2% 10 54.1% 43.8% 10.2% 10 59.5% 38.8% 20.70% 10
MS 43.0% 56.2% -13.2% 43.0% 56.2% -13.2% 53.0% 45.3% 7.70% 6

MO 49.3% 49.4% -0.1% 49.3% 49.4% -0.1% 54.1% 44.3% 9.72% 11
MT 47.2% 49.4% -2.3% 47.2% 49.4% -2.3% 47.5% 50.8% -3.30%
NE 41.6% 56.5% -14.9% 41.6% 56.5% -14.9% 44.0% 54.5% -10.53%
NV 55.1% 42.7% 12.5% 5 55.1% 42.7% 12.5% 5 59.8% 38.5% 21.29% 5
NH 54.1% 44.5% 9.6% 4 54.1% 44.5% 9.6% 4 60.6% 37.7% 22.98% 4

NJ 57.2% 41.6% 15.5% 15 57.2% 41.6% 15.5% 15 61.9% 36.4% 25.44% 15
NM 56.9% 41.8% 15.1% 5 56.9% 41.8% 15.1% 5 59.4% 38.9% 20.49% 5
NY 62.8% 36.1% 26.7% 31 62.8% 36.1% 26.7% 31 67.7% 30.5% 37.28% 31
NC 49.7% 49.4% 0.3% 15 49.7% 49.4% 0.3% 15 56.5% 41.8% 14.67% 15
ND 44.5% 53.1% -8.6% 44.5% 53.1% -8.6% 43.1% 55.3% -12.22%

OH 51.4% 46.8% 4.5% 20 51.4% 46.8% 4.5% 20 57.2% 41.2% 15.95% 20
OK 34.4% 65.6% -31.3% 34.4% 65.6% -31.3% 38.3% 60.3% -21.99%
OR 56.7% 40.4% 16.3% 7 56.7% 40.4% 16.3% 7 57.1% 41.2% 15.89% 7
PA 54.5% 44.2% 10.3% 21 54.5% 44.2% 10.3% 21 59.1% 39.3% 19.83% 21
RI 63.1% 35.2% 27.9% 4 63.1% 35.2% 27.9% 4 66.7% 31.5% 35.24% 4

SC 44.9% 53.9% -9.0% 44.9% 53.9% -9.0% 52.8% 45.5% 7.31% 8
SD 44.7% 53.2% -8.4% 44.7% 53.2% -8.4% 43.2% 55.3% -12.14%
TN 41.8% 56.9% -15.1% 41.8% 56.9% -15.1% 48.0% 50.4% -2.47%
TX 43.6% 55.4% -11.8% 43.6% 55.4% -11.8% 48.5% 50.0% -1.53%
UT 34.3% 62.3% -28.1% 34.3% 62.3% -28.1% 36.8% 61.6% -24.87%

VT 67.5% 30.5% 37.0% 3 67.5% 30.5% 37.0% 3 70.8% 27.3% 43.42% 3
VA 52.6% 46.3% 6.3% 13 52.6% 46.3% 6.3% 13 57.0% 41.3% 15.64% 13
WA 57.4% 40.3% 17.1% 11 57.4% 40.3% 17.1% 11 61.8% 36.5% 25.32% 11
WV 42.6% 55.7% -13.1% 42.6% 55.7% -13.1% 44.7% 53.8% -9.14%
WI 56.2% 42.3% 13.9% 10 56.2% 42.3% 13.9% 10 57.1% 41.2% 15.87% 10
WY 32.5% 64.8% -32.2% 32.5% 64.8% -32.2% 38.6% 59.8% -21.20%



Obama Kerry Bush Other DNV True RecordedDiff Diff<0.03 Exit Diff Diff<0.03

Share 89% 17% 66% 71% 57.23% 52.87% 4.36% 16 52.88% -4.34% 16
Total 54,436 8,931 804 11,545 75,716 69,457 6,259 69,971 75,716

AL 86.1% 12.5% 56.9% 63.2% 47.4% 38.7% 8.63% 38.7% -8.63%
AK 85.9% 12.2% 56.4% 62.8% 45.3% 37.9% 7.45% 37.9% -7.45%
AZ 87.3% 14.4% 60.9% 66.6% 51.4% 44.9% 6.48% 44.9% -6.48%
AR 86.1% 12.5% 57.0% 63.3% 48.5% 38.9% 9.65% 38.9% -9.65%
CA 90.7% 19.6% 71.2% 75.4% 65.0% 61.0% 4.07% 61.0% -4.07%

CO 89.2% 17.3% 66.5% 71.4% 57.1% 53.7% 3.41% 53.7% -3.41%
CT 90.6% 19.5% 71.0% 75.2% 66.0% 60.6% 5.38% 60.6% -5.38%
DE 90.9% 19.9% 71.8% 76.0% 65.8% 61.9% 3.86% 61.9% -3.86%
DC 97.2% 29.7% 91.5% 92.7% 90.3% 92.5% -2.19% 1 92.5% 2.19% 1
FL 88.6% 16.4% 64.7% 69.9% 56.3% 50.9% 5.42% 50.9% -5.42%

GA 87.8% 15.1% 62.2% 67.7% 50.8% 46.9% 3.92% 46.9% -3.92%
HI 92.9% 23.1% 78.2% 81.4% 66.3% 71.8% -5.51% 71.8% 5.51%
ID 85.5% 11.6% 55.1% 61.7% 40.3% 36.0% 4.38% 36.0% -4.38%
IL 90.9% 19.9% 71.8% 76.0% 62.3% 61.9% 0.34% 1 61.9% -0.34% 1
IN 88.4% 16.0% 64.1% 69.4% 50.2% 49.9% 0.25% 1 49.9% -0.25% 1

IA 89.2% 17.3% 66.7% 71.6% 56.0% 53.9% 2.03% 1 53.9% -2.03% 1
KS 86.6% 13.4% 58.7% 64.8% 43.9% 41.6% 2.33% 1 41.6% -2.33% 1
KY 86.6% 13.2% 58.5% 64.6% 45.5% 41.1% 4.31% 41.1% -4.31%
LA 86.3% 12.8% 57.7% 63.9% 47.3% 39.9% 7.37% 39.9% -7.37%
ME 90.0% 18.6% 69.1% 73.7% 60.4% 57.7% 2.68% 1 57.7% -2.68% 1

MD 90.9% 19.9% 71.8% 76.0% 65.0% 61.9% 3.07% 61.9% -3.07%
MA 90.9% 19.9% 71.7% 75.9% 68.3% 61.8% 6.48% 61.8% -6.48%
MI 89.9% 18.4% 68.9% 73.5% 59.6% 57.4% 2.25% 1 57.4% -2.25% 1
MN 89.2% 17.4% 66.8% 71.7% 59.5% 54.1% 5.44% 54.1% -5.44%
MS 86.9% 13.8% 59.7% 65.6% 53.0% 43.0% 10.03% 43.0% -10.03%

MO 88.2% 15.8% 63.7% 69.0% 54.1% 49.3% 4.81% 49.3% -4.81%
MT 87.8% 15.2% 62.3% 67.9% 47.5% 47.2% 0.35% 1 47.2% -0.35% 1
NE 86.7% 13.4% 58.8% 64.8% 44.0% 41.6% 2.36% 1 41.6% -2.36% 1
NV 89.5% 17.7% 67.5% 72.2% 59.8% 55.1% 4.63% 55.1% -4.63%
NH 89.3% 17.4% 66.8% 71.7% 60.6% 54.1% 6.51% 54.1% -6.51%

NJ 89.9% 18.4% 68.8% 73.3% 61.9% 57.2% 4.72% 57.2% -4.72%
NM 89.8% 18.3% 68.6% 73.2% 59.4% 56.9% 2.50% 1 56.9% -2.50% 1
NY 91.1% 20.2% 72.4% 76.4% 67.7% 62.8% 4.93% 62.8% -4.93%
NC 88.3% 16.0% 64.0% 69.3% 56.5% 49.7% 6.81% 49.7% -6.81%
ND 87.3% 14.3% 60.6% 66.4% 43.1% 44.5% -1.35% 1 44.5% 1.35% 1

OH 88.7% 16.5% 65.0% 70.2% 57.2% 51.4% 5.79% 51.4% -5.79%
OK 85.1% 11.0% 54.1% 60.8% 38.3% 34.4% 3.96% 34.4% -3.96%
OR 89.8% 18.2% 68.5% 73.1% 57.1% 56.7% 0.36% 1 56.7% -0.36% 1
PA 89.3% 17.5% 67.0% 71.9% 59.1% 54.5% 4.60% 54.5% -4.60%
RI 91.1% 20.3% 72.6% 76.6% 66.7% 63.1% 3.58% 63.1% -3.58%

SC 87.3% 14.4% 60.9% 66.6% 52.8% 44.9% 7.93% 44.9% -7.93%
SD 87.3% 14.4% 60.8% 66.5% 43.2% 44.7% -1.59% 1 44.7% 1.59% 1
TN 86.7% 13.4% 58.9% 64.9% 48.0% 41.8% 6.15% 41.8% -6.15%
TX 87.1% 14.0% 60.1% 65.9% 48.5% 43.6% 4.82% 43.6% -4.82%
UT 85.1% 11.0% 54.0% 60.8% 36.8% 34.3% 2.51% 1 34.3% -2.51% 1

VT 92.0% 21.7% 75.4% 79.0% 70.8% 67.5% 3.31% 67.5% -3.31%
VA 88.9% 16.9% 65.8% 70.9% 57.0% 52.6% 4.36% 52.6% -4.36%
WA 89.9% 18.5% 68.9% 73.5% 61.8% 57.4% 4.36% 57.4% -4.36%
WV 86.9% 13.7% 59.4% 65.3% 44.7% 42.6% 2.13% 1 42.6% -2.13% 1
WI 89.7% 18.1% 68.2% 72.8% 57.1% 56.2% 0.90% 1 56.2% -0.90% 1
WY 84.8% 10.5% 52.9% 59.8% 38.6% 32.5% 6.07% 32.5% -6.07%

[code]

2004 Vote shares based on State/ National ratio

2004 Recorded Exit Poll True Vote Flipped to
Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin EV Bush
59.0 62.0 -3.0 252 65.3 59.2 6.1 338 66.9 57.1 9.8 379 12
48.3% 50.7% -2.5% 51.9% 47.1% 4.8% 53.2% 45.5% 7.8% 127 EV

AL 36.8 62.5 -25.6 41.8 57.5 -15.6 46.5 52.8 0.7
AK 35.5 61.1 -25.5 40.2 56.4 -16.2 38.5 58.1 3.4
AZ 44.4 54.9 -10.5 44.5 54.7 -10.2 51.3 47.9 0.7 10 10
AR 44.5 54.3 -9.8 45.2 53.7 -8.5 49.6 49.3 1.1 6 6
CA 54.3 44.4 9.9 55 60.1 38.6 21.5 55 58.9 39.8 1.3 55
CO 47.0 51.7 -4.7 50.1 48.6 1.4 9 52.4 46.3 1.3 9 9
CT 54.3 43.9 10.4 7 62.3 35.9 26.4 7 64.0 34.2 1.7 7
DE 53.3 45.8 7.6 3 61.3 37.8 23.5 3 59.2 39.9 0.9 3
DC 89.2 9.3 79.8 3 90.6 7.9 82.6 3 89.0 9.5 1.5 3
FL 47.1 52.1 -5.0 51.0 48.2 2.8 27 52.3 46.8 0.8 27 27

GA 41.4 58.0 -16.6 42.0 57.3 -15.3 48.0 51.3 0.7
HI 54.0 45.3 8.7 4 58.1 41.2 16.9 4 64.9 34.4 0.7 4
ID 30.3 68.4 -38.1 32.3 66.4 -34.1 33.2 65.4 1.4
IL 54.8 44.5 10.3 21 56.6 42.7 13.8 21 59.4 39.9 0.7 21
IN 39.3 59.9 -20.7 40.4 58.8 -18.5 46.8 52.4 0.8
IA 49.2 49.9 -0.7 50.7 48.4 2.3 7 53.3 45.9 0.9 7 7
KS 36.6 62.0 -25.4 37.2 61.5 -24.3 42.4 56.2 1.4
KY 39.7 59.6 -19.9 39.9 59.4 -19.5 45.8 53.4 0.8
LA 42.2 56.7 -14.5 43.5 55.4 -11.9 49.7 49.3 1.1 9 9
ME 53.6 44.6 9.0 4 55.6 42.6 13.0 4 56.3 41.9 1.9 4

MD 55.9 42.9 13.0 10 59.6 39.3 20.3 10 60.9 38.0 1.2 10
MA 61.9 36.8 25.2 12 65.8 32.9 32.9 12 67.3 31.4 1.3 12
MI 51.2 47.8 3.4 17 54.4 44.6 9.8 17 55.1 43.9 1.0 17
MN 51.1 47.6 3.5 10 55.7 43.0 12.7 10 55.9 42.8 1.3 10
MS 39.8 59.4 -19.7 49.0 50.2 -1.2 47.4 51.8 0.8
MO 46.1 53.3 -7.2 49.0 50.4 -1.4 52.4 47.0 0.6 11 11
MT 38.6 59.1 -20.5 37.3 60.4 -23.1 40.7 56.9 2.4
NE 32.7 65.9 -33.2 37.0 61.5 -24.5 37.5 61.1 1.4
NV 47.9 50.5 -2.6 52.8 45.5 7.3 5 52.4 45.9 1.7 5 5
NH 50.2 48.9 1.4 4 57.2 41.9 15.4 4 53.5 45.6 0.9 4

NJ 52.9 46.2 6.7 15 57.5 41.7 15.8 15 60.0 39.2 0.8 15
NM 49.0 49.8 -0.8 53.0 45.8 7.2 5 54.5 44.4 1.1 5 5
NY 58.4 40.1 18.3 31 64.5 34.0 30.5 31 64.0 34.4 1.5 31
NC 43.6 56.0 -12.4 49.5 50.1 -0.5 47.5 52.1 0.4
ND 35.5 62.9 -27.4 34.6 63.7 -29.1 40.3 58.1 1.6
OH 48.7 50.8 -2.1 54.0 45.5 8.5 20 52.3 47.2 0.5 20 20
OK 34.4 65.6 -31.1 33.8 66.2 -32.3 44.1 55.9 0.0
OR 51.3 47.2 4.2 7 52.2 46.3 6.0 7 54.6 43.9 1.5 7
PA 50.9 48.4 2.5 21 55.1 44.2 10.9 21 55.3 44.1 0.7 21
RI 59.4 38.7 20.8 4 62.1 36.0 26.1 4 66.4 31.7 1.9 4

SC 40.9 58.0 -17.1 45.8 53.1 -7.4 48.4 50.5 1.1
SD 38.4 59.9 -21.5 35.9 62.5 -26.6 41.4 57.0 1.6
TN 42.5 56.8 -14.3 43.2 56.1 -13.0 49.7 49.7 0.7
TX 38.2 61.1 -22.9 42.0 57.3 -15.3 44.0 55.3 0.7
UT 26.0 71.5 -45.5 28.1 69.4 -41.2 32.7 64.9 2.5
VT 58.9 38.8 20.1 3 66.5 31.2 35.3 3 60.0 37.8 2.3 3
VA 45.5 53.7 -8.2 49.8 49.3 0.5 13 49.8 49.3 0.8 13 13
WA 52.8 45.6 7.2 11 56.8 41.6 15.2 11 55.9 42.5 1.5 11
WV 43.2 56.1 -12.9 40.2 59.0 -18.8 50.6 48.7 0.7 5 5
WI 49.7 49.3 0.4 10 52.1 46.9 5.2 10 53.5 45.6 1.0 10
WY 29.1 68.9 -39.8 32.6 65.4 -32.8 31.5 66.4 2.1



Vote Share Analysis

Kerry Vote shares Kerry Kerry
2004 Gore Bush Other DNV True Recorded Diff <3% Exit Diff <3%
Share 91.0% 10.0% 64.0% 57.0% 53.2% 48.4% 5.2% 7 51.9% -1.6% 31
Total 47.0 4.7 2.4 12.8 66.9 59.0 7.9 65.3 59.2

AL 88.9% 7.6% 55.5% 46.8% 46.5% 36.8% 9.7% 41.8% -4.7%
AK 88.6% 7.4% 54.5% 45.6% 38.5% 35.5% 3.0% 40.2% 1.6% 1
AZ 90.3% 9.2% 61.1% 53.6% 51.3% 44.4% 6.9% 44.5% -6.8%
AR 90.3% 9.2% 61.2% 53.7% 49.6% 44.5% 5.1% 45.2% -4.4%
CA 92.1% 11.3% 68.5% 62.4% 58.9% 54.3% 4.6% 60.1% 1.2% 1

CO 90.8% 9.7% 63.1% 55.9% 52.4% 47.0% 5.4% 50.1% -2.3% 1
CT 92.1% 11.3% 68.5% 62.4% 64.0% 54.3% 9.7% 62.3% -1.7% 1
DE 91.9% 11.1% 67.8% 61.5% 59.2% 53.3% 5.8% 61.3% 2.1% 1
DC 98.6% 18.5% 94.5% 93.5% 89.0% 89.2% -0.2% 1 90.6% 1.6% 1
FL 90.8% 9.8% 63.1% 56.0% 52.3% 47.1% 5.3% 51.0% -1.4% 1

GA 89.7% 8.6% 58.9% 50.9% 48.0% 41.4% 6.7% 42.0% -6.0%
HI 92.1% 11.2% 68.3% 62.1% 64.9% 54.0% 10.9% 58.1% -6.8%
ID 87.6% 6.3% 50.6% 41.0% 33.2% 30.3% 2.9% 1 32.3% -0.9% 1
IL 92.2% 11.4% 68.9% 62.8% 59.4% 54.8% 4.6% 56.6% -2.8% 1
IN 89.3% 8.1% 57.3% 49.0% 46.8% 39.3% 7.5% 40.4% -6.4%

IA 91.2% 10.2% 64.7% 57.9% 53.3% 49.2% 4.0% 50.7% -2.5% 1
KS 88.8% 7.6% 55.3% 46.6% 42.4% 36.6% 5.8% 37.2% -5.2%
KY 89.4% 8.2% 57.6% 49.4% 45.8% 39.7% 6.1% 39.9% -5.9%
LA 89.9% 8.7% 59.5% 51.6% 49.7% 42.2% 7.5% 43.5% -6.2%
ME 92.0% 11.1% 68.0% 61.7% 56.3% 53.6% 2.7% 1 55.6% -0.7% 1

MD 92.4% 11.6% 69.7% 63.8% 60.9% 55.9% 5.0% 59.6% -1.3% 1
MA 93.5% 12.8% 74.2% 69.2% 67.3% 61.9% 5.3% 65.8% -1.5% 1
MI 91.6% 10.6% 66.2% 59.6% 55.1% 51.2% 3.9% 54.4% -0.7% 1
MN 91.5% 10.6% 66.1% 59.5% 55.9% 51.1% 4.8% 55.7% -0.2% 1
MS 89.4% 8.2% 57.7% 49.4% 47.4% 39.8% 7.6% 49.0% 1.6% 1

MO 90.6% 9.6% 62.4% 55.1% 52.4% 46.1% 6.3% 49.0% -3.4%
MT 89.2% 8.0% 56.8% 48.4% 40.7% 38.6% 2.1% 1 37.3% -3.4%
NE 88.1% 6.8% 52.4% 43.1% 37.5% 32.7% 4.8% 37.0% -0.4% 1
NV 90.9% 9.9% 63.7% 56.7% 52.4% 47.9% 4.5% 52.8% 0.4% 1
NH 91.4% 10.4% 65.5% 58.8% 53.5% 50.2% 3.2% 57.2% 3.8%

NJ 91.9% 11.0% 67.5% 61.1% 60.0% 52.9% 7.0% 57.5% -2.5% 1
NM 91.1% 10.2% 64.6% 57.7% 54.5% 49.0% 5.5% 53.0% -1.5% 1
NY 92.9% 12.1% 71.5% 66.0% 64.0% 58.4% 5.7% 64.5% 0.4% 1
NC 90.1% 9.0% 60.5% 52.8% 47.5% 43.6% 3.9% 49.5% 2.0% 1
ND 88.6% 7.4% 54.5% 45.6% 40.3% 35.5% 4.8% 34.6% -5.6%

OH 91.1% 10.1% 64.3% 57.4% 52.3% 48.7% 3.6% 54.0% 1.7% 1
OK 88.4% 7.1% 53.7% 44.7% 44.1% 34.4% 9.7% 33.8% -10.3%
OR 91.6% 10.6% 66.3% 59.7% 54.6% 51.3% 3.3% 52.2% -2.4% 1
PA 91.5% 10.6% 66.0% 59.4% 55.3% 50.9% 4.3% 55.1% -0.1% 1
RI 93.1% 12.3% 72.3% 66.9% 66.4% 59.4% 7.0% 62.1% -4.3%

SC 89.6% 8.5% 58.5% 50.4% 48.4% 40.9% 7.5% 45.8% -2.7% 1
SD 89.2% 8.0% 56.7% 48.2% 41.4% 38.4% 2.9% 1 35.9% -5.5%
TN 89.9% 8.8% 59.7% 51.9% 49.7% 42.5% 7.1% 43.2% -6.5%
TX 89.1% 7.9% 56.5% 48.1% 44.0% 38.2% 5.7% 42.0% -1.9% 1
UT 86.8% 5.4% 47.4% 37.2% 32.7% 26.0% 6.7% 28.1% -4.5%

VT 93.0% 12.2% 72.0% 66.5% 60.0% 58.9% 1.0% 1 66.5% 6.6%
VA 90.5% 9.4% 61.9% 54.5% 49.8% 45.5% 4.3% 49.8% 0.0% 1
WA 91.8% 10.9% 67.4% 61.1% 55.9% 52.8% 3.1% 56.8% 0.9% 1
WV 90.1% 9.0% 60.2% 52.5% 50.6% 43.2% 7.4% 40.2% -10.3%
WI 91.3% 10.3% 65.1% 58.3% 53.5% 49.7% 3.8% 52.1% -1.4% 1
WY 87.4% 6.0% 49.7% 39.9% 31.5% 29.1% 2.4% 1 32.6% 1.1% 1

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Electoral Vote Analysis

2000 Recorded Exit Poll True Vote Flipped to
Gore Bush Margin EV Gore Bush Margin EV Gore Bush Margin EV Bush
51,004 50,460 544 260 54,617 52,100 2,517 274 55,371 51,328 4,043 344 7
48.38% 47.87% 0.52% 49.3% 47.0% 2.3% 50.0% 46.3% 3.6% 84 EV

AL 41.6% 56.5% -14.9% 44.3% 53.7% -9.4% 43.5% 53.0% -9.5%
AK 27.7% 58.6% -31.0% 27.7% 58.6% -31.0% 30.2% 65.6% -35.4%
AZ 44.7% 51.0% -6.3% 44.7% 51.0% -6.3% 47.9% 48.4% -0.5%
AR 45.9% 51.3% -5.4% 47.5% 49.7% -2.2% 50.2% 46.2% 4.1% 6 6
CA 53.4% 41.7% 11.8% 55 55.3% 39.8% 15.6% 55 54.5% 41.7% 12.7% 55

CO 42.4% 50.8% -8.4% 45.2% 48.0% -2.8% 44.5% 52.0% -7.5%
CT 55.9% 38.4% 17.5% 7 56.4% 38.0% 18.4% 7 53.0% 43.1% 9.9% 7
DE 55.0% 41.9% 13.1% 3 58.5% 38.4% 20.2% 3 55.2% 40.8% 14.4% 3
DC 85.2% 9.0% 76.2% 3 85.2% 9.0% 76.2% 3 85.4% 10.9% 74.5% 3
FL 48.8% 48.8% 0.0% 49.1% 48.5% 0.6% 27 48.4% 47.8% 0.6% 27 27

GA 43.0% 54.7% -11.7% 45.8% 51.9% -6.1% 44.1% 52.4% -8.3%
HI 55.8% 37.5% 18.3% 4 55.8% 37.5% 18.3% 4 57.0% 39.2% 17.8% 4
ID 27.6% 67.2% -39.5% 26.4% 68.4% -42.0% 31.8% 64.3% -32.6%
IL 54.6% 42.6% 12.0% 21 57.8% 39.4% 18.4% 21 54.6% 41.8% 12.8% 21
IN 41.0% 56.6% -15.6% 42.8% 54.8% -12.0% 42.9% 53.3% -10.5%

IA 48.5% 48.2% 0.3% 7 47.0% 49.7% -2.7% 49.4% 46.9% 2.5% 7
KS 37.2% 58.0% -20.8% 39.4% 55.8% -16.4% 36.9% 59.6% -22.7%
KY 41.4% 56.5% -15.1% 39.2% 58.7% -19.5% 44.1% 52.3% -8.2%
LA 44.9% 52.6% -7.7% 45.2% 52.3% -7.1% 46.8% 49.6% -2.8%
ME 49.1% 44.0% 5.1% 4 50.1% 42.9% 7.2% 4 54.3% 41.3% 13.1% 4

MD 56.6% 40.2% 16.4% 10 58.7% 38.0% 20.7% 10 56.7% 39.7% 17.0% 10
MA 59.8% 32.5% 27.3% 12 62.0% 30.4% 31.6% 12 62.9% 33.2% 29.6% 12
MI 51.3% 46.1% 5.1% 17 52.4% 45.0% 7.3% 17 52.9% 43.4% 9.5% 17
MN 47.9% 45.5% 2.4% 10 47.7% 45.8% 1.9% 10 50.3% 45.6% 4.7% 10
MS 40.7% 57.6% -16.9% 42.3% 56.0% -13.7% 43.8% 52.7% -8.9%

MO 47.1% 50.4% -3.3% 46.2% 51.3% -5.1% 50.1% 46.0% 4.1% 11 11
MT 33.4% 58.4% -25.1% 31.8% 60.0% -28.3% 39.8% 56.3% -16.5%
NE 33.3% 62.2% -29.0% 35.3% 60.2% -24.9% 36.2% 60.2% -24.0%
NV 46.0% 49.5% -3.5% 49.0% 46.5% 2.5% 5 47.6% 48.4% -0.7%
NH 46.8% 48.1% -1.3% 48.0% 46.9% 1.1% 4 52.2% 43.8% 8.4% 4 4

NJ 56.1% 40.3% 15.8% 15 56.3% 40.1% 16.2% 15 55.9% 40.3% 15.6% 15
NM 47.9% 47.8% 0.1% 5 45.4% 50.4% -5.0% 51.3% 45.1% 6.1% 5
NY 60.2% 35.2% 25.0% 31 61.9% 33.6% 28.3% 31 60.1% 36.2% 23.9% 31
NC 43.2% 56.0% -12.8% 48.1% 51.1% -3.0% 46.0% 50.6% -4.6%
ND 33.1% 60.7% -27.6% 32.1% 61.7% -29.6% 39.1% 57.0% -18.0%

OH 46.5% 50.0% -3.5% 47.0% 49.5% -2.5% 48.4% 47.8% 0.6% 20 20
OK 38.4% 60.3% -21.9% 36.1% 62.7% -26.6% 40.4% 55.9% -15.5%
OR 47.0% 46.5% 0.4% 7 47.0% 46.5% 0.4% 7 49.0% 47.0% 2.0% 7
PA 50.6% 46.4% 4.2% 21 51.0% 46.0% 5.0% 21 51.6% 44.6% 7.0% 21
RI 61.0% 31.9% 29.1% 4 61.2% 31.7% 29.5% 4 63.2% 32.8% 30.4% 4

SC 40.9% 56.8% -15.9% 42.7% 55.1% -12.4% 45.2% 51.3% -6.0%
SD 37.6% 60.3% -22.7% 38.0% 59.8% -21.8% 41.0% 55.5% -14.5%
TN 47.3% 51.1% -3.9% 46.2% 52.2% -6.1% 48.4% 48.3% 0.1% 11 11
TX 38.0% 59.3% -21.3% 38.2% 59.1% -20.9% 41.5% 54.9% -13.3%
UT 26.3% 66.8% -40.5% 25.8% 67.3% -41.5% 31.4% 64.7% -33.3%

VT 50.6% 40.7% 9.9% 3 50.4% 40.9% 9.5% 3 55.4% 40.3% 15.2% 3
VA 44.4% 52.5% -8.0% 45.4% 51.5% -6.0% 47.3% 49.1% -1.8%
WA 50.1% 44.6% 5.6% 11 52.0% 42.7% 9.3% 11 51.9% 44.2% 7.7% 11
WV 45.6% 51.9% -6.3% 43.3% 54.2% -10.8% 51.1% 45.1% 6.0% 5 5
WI 47.8% 47.6% 0.2% 10 46.6% 48.8% -2.2% 50.3% 45.7% 4.6% 10
WY 27.7% 67.8% -40.1% 28.2% 67.3% -39.1% 35.2% 61.0% -25.8%


Vote Share Analysis

Gore Vote shares Gore Gore
2000 Clinton Dole Other DNV True Recorded Diff <3% Exit Diff <3%
Share 82% 7% 45% 52% 49.96% 48.38% 1.58% 33 49.28% -0.68% 32
Total 41,158 2,527 4,452 7,234 55,371 51,004 4,367 54,617 754

AL 79.5% 6.0% 37.3% 45.3% 43.5% 41.6% 1.9% 1 44.3% 0.8% 1
AK 74.3% 4.0% 21.5% 31.4% 30.2% 27.7% 2.6% 1 27.7% -2.6% 1
AZ 80.6% 6.5% 40.8% 48.3% 47.9% 44.7% 3.2% 44.7% -3.2%
AR 81.1% 6.6% 42.1% 49.5% 50.2% 45.9% 4.4% 47.5% -2.8% 1
CA 83.9% 7.7% 50.8% 57.0% 54.5% 53.4% 1.0% 1 55.3% 0.9% 1

CO 79.8% 6.1% 38.2% 46.1% 44.5% 42.4% 2.1% 1 45.2% 0.7% 1
CT 84.8% 8.1% 53.6% 59.5% 53.0% 55.9% -2.9% 1 56.4% 3.3%
DE 84.4% 8.0% 52.5% 58.5% 55.2% 55.0% 0.2% 1 58.5% 3.3%
DC 95.7% 12.3% 86.8% 88.5% 85.4% 85.2% 0.3% 1 85.2% -0.3% 1
FL 82.2% 7.1% 45.5% 52.5% 48.4% 48.8% -0.4% 1 49.1% 0.7% 1

GA 80.0% 6.2% 38.9% 46.6% 44.1% 43.0% 1.2% 1 45.8% 1.6% 1
HI 84.8% 8.1% 53.4% 59.3% 57.0% 55.8% 1.2% 1 55.8% -1.2% 1
ID 74.3% 4.0% 21.4% 31.4% 31.8% 27.6% 4.1% 26.4% -5.4%
IL 84.3% 7.9% 52.1% 58.2% 54.6% 54.6% 0.0% 1 57.8% 3.2%
IN 79.3% 5.9% 36.6% 44.7% 42.9% 41.0% 1.8% 1 42.8% 0.0% 1

IA 82.1% 7.0% 45.2% 52.2% 49.4% 48.5% 0.9% 1 47.0% -2.4% 1
KS 77.9% 5.4% 32.3% 40.9% 36.9% 37.2% -0.3% 1 39.4% 2.5% 1
KY 79.4% 6.0% 37.0% 45.0% 44.1% 41.4% 2.7% 1 39.2% -4.9%
LA 80.7% 6.5% 41.0% 48.5% 46.8% 44.9% 2.0% 1 45.2% -1.7% 1
ME 82.3% 7.1% 45.8% 52.7% 54.3% 49.1% 5.2% 50.1% -4.2%

MD 85.0% 8.2% 54.3% 60.1% 56.7% 56.6% 0.2% 1 58.7% 2.0% 1
MA 86.2% 8.7% 58.0% 63.3% 62.9% 59.8% 3.1% 62.0% -0.9% 1
MI 83.1% 7.4% 48.3% 54.9% 52.9% 51.3% 1.6% 1 52.4% -0.5% 1
MN 81.8% 6.9% 44.5% 51.5% 50.3% 47.9% 2.4% 1 47.7% -2.7% 1
MS 79.1% 5.9% 36.3% 44.4% 43.8% 40.7% 3.1% 42.3% -1.5% 1

MO 81.5% 6.8% 43.5% 50.7% 50.1% 47.1% 3.0% 46.2% -3.9%
MT 76.4% 4.8% 27.9% 37.1% 39.8% 33.4% 6.4% 31.8% -8.0%
NE 76.4% 4.8% 27.8% 37.0% 36.2% 33.3% 2.9% 1 35.3% -0.9% 1
NV 81.1% 6.7% 42.3% 49.6% 47.6% 46.0% 1.6% 1 49.0% 1.4% 1
NH 81.4% 6.8% 43.2% 50.4% 52.2% 46.8% 5.4% 48.0% -4.2%

NJ 84.9% 8.1% 53.8% 59.7% 55.9% 56.1% -0.2% 1 56.3% 0.4% 1
NM 81.8% 6.9% 44.5% 51.5% 51.3% 47.9% 3.3% 45.4% -5.9%
NY 86.4% 8.7% 58.4% 63.7% 60.1% 60.2% -0.1% 1 61.9% 1.8% 1
NC 80.1% 6.3% 39.1% 46.9% 46.0% 43.2% 2.8% 1 48.1% 2.1% 1
ND 76.3% 4.8% 27.6% 36.8% 39.1% 33.1% 6.0% 32.1% -7.0%

OH 81.3% 6.7% 42.8% 50.1% 48.4% 46.5% 1.9% 1 47.0% -1.4% 1
OK 78.3% 5.6% 33.7% 42.1% 40.4% 38.4% 2.0% 1 36.1% -4.3%
OR 81.5% 6.8% 43.4% 50.6% 49.0% 47.0% 2.0% 1 47.0% -2.0% 1
PA 82.8% 7.3% 47.5% 54.2% 51.6% 50.6% 1.0% 1 51.0% -0.6% 1
RI 86.7% 8.8% 59.3% 64.5% 63.2% 61.0% 2.2% 1 61.2% -2.0% 1

SC 79.2% 5.9% 36.5% 44.6% 45.2% 40.9% 4.3% 42.7% -2.5% 1
SD 78.0% 5.4% 32.7% 41.3% 41.0% 37.6% 3.4% 38.0% -3.0% 1
TN 81.6% 6.8% 43.8% 50.9% 48.4% 47.3% 1.1% 1 46.2% -2.2% 1
TX 78.1% 5.5% 33.2% 41.7% 41.5% 38.0% 3.6% 38.2% -3.4%
UT 73.8% 3.8% 19.9% 30.1% 31.4% 26.3% 5.1% 25.8% -5.6%

VT 82.8% 7.3% 47.6% 54.2% 55.4% 50.6% 4.8% 50.4% -5.0%
VA 80.5% 6.4% 40.5% 48.1% 47.3% 44.4% 2.9% 1 45.4% -1.9% 1
WA 82.7% 7.3% 47.0% 53.7% 51.9% 50.1% 1.7% 1 52.0% 0.1% 1
WV 81.0% 6.6% 41.8% 49.2% 51.1% 45.6% 5.5% 43.3% -7.7%
WI 81.8% 6.9% 44.4% 51.5% 50.3% 47.8% 2.5% 1 46.6% -3.7%
WY 74.3% 4.0% 21.5% 31.5% 35.2% 27.7% 7.5% 28.2% -7.0%

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Electoral Vote Analysis

1996 Recorded Exit Poll True Vote Flipped to
Clinton Dole Margin EV Clinton Dole Margin EV Clinton Dole Margin EV Dole
47,400 39,199 8,201 376 52,665 41,845 10,820 405 53,069 41,448 11,621 437 6
49.23% 40.72% 8.52% 50.2% 39.8% 10.3% 50.5% 39.5% 11.1% 66 EV

AL 43.2% 50.1% -7.0% 44.4% 48.9% -4.6% 45.0% 46.7% -1.8%
AK 33.3% 50.8% -17.5% 33.3% 50.8% -17.5% 29.9% 57.8% -27.9%
AZ 46.5% 44.3% 2.2% 10 50.4% 40.4% 9.9% 10 46.5% 42.5% 4.0% 10
AR 53.7% 36.8% 16.9% 6 53.0% 37.6% 15.4% 6 58.4% 33.0% 25.4% 6
CA 51.1% 38.2% 12.9% 55 53.4% 35.9% 17.6% 55 54.5% 35.1% 19.4% 55

CO 44.4% 45.8% -1.4% 45.2% 45.0% 0.1% 9 47.3% 41.7% 5.5% 9 9
CT 52.8% 34.7% 18.1% 7 50.7% 36.8% 13.9% 7 52.5% 37.1% 15.4% 7
DE 51.8% 36.6% 15.2% 3 52.5% 35.9% 16.5% 3 53.6% 36.3% 17.3% 3
DC 85.2% 9.3% 75.9% 3 85.2% 9.3% 75.9% 3 87.0% 5.4% 81.6% 3
FL 48.0% 42.3% 5.7% 27 48.3% 42.0% 6.3% 27 47.8% 42.0% 5.8% 27

GA 45.8% 47.0% -1.2% 44.2% 48.7% -4.5% 49.3% 41.5% 7.9% 15 15
HI 56.9% 31.6% 25.3% 4 56.9% 31.6% 25.3% 4 55.6% 35.8% 19.8% 4
ID 33.6% 52.2% -18.5% 35.4% 50.4% -15.0% 31.2% 56.8% -25.6%
IL 54.3% 36.8% 17.5% 21 53.7% 37.4% 16.3% 21 56.5% 34.2% 22.3% 21
IN 41.5% 47.1% -5.6% 42.5% 46.1% -3.6% 43.8% 46.2% -2.4%

IA 50.3% 39.9% 10.3% 7 50.1% 40.1% 10.0% 7 50.1% 40.1% 10.0% 7
KS 36.1% 54.3% -18.2% 37.7% 52.7% -15.0% 37.5% 51.1% -13.6%
KY 45.8% 44.9% 1.0% 8 45.3% 45.4% 0.0% 48.6% 42.3% 6.3% 8
LA 52.0% 39.9% 12.1% 9 48.8% 43.2% 5.6% 9 51.6% 39.6% 12.0% 9
ME 51.6% 30.8% 20.9% 4 53.8% 28.6% 25.3% 4 50.1% 37.6% 12.6% 4

MD 54.3% 38.3% 16.0% 10 56.1% 36.5% 19.6% 10 58.0% 33.2% 24.8% 10
MA 61.5% 28.1% 33.4% 12 63.1% 26.4% 36.7% 12 61.0% 28.2% 32.9% 12
MI 51.7% 38.5% 13.2% 17 53.4% 36.7% 16.7% 17 51.9% 38.1% 13.8% 17
MN 51.1% 35.0% 16.1% 10 50.2% 35.8% 14.4% 10 52.5% 36.4% 16.1% 10
MS 44.1% 49.2% -5.1% 44.2% 49.1% -4.8% 47.7% 44.6% 3.1% 6 6

MO 47.5% 41.2% 6.3% 11 50.4% 38.3% 12.1% 11 51.3% 38.1% 13.3% 11
MT 41.2% 44.1% -2.9% 42.4% 42.9% -0.5% 41.2% 47.1% -5.9%
NE 35.0% 53.7% -18.7% 38.2% 50.4% -12.2% 33.2% 56.0% -22.9%
NV 43.9% 42.9% 1.0% 5 43.9% 42.9% 1.0% 5 43.4% 44.9% -1.5%
NH 49.3% 39.4% 10.0% 4 55.4% 33.3% 22.2% 4 49.5% 39.6% 9.9% 4

NJ 53.7% 35.9% 17.9% 15 54.7% 34.9% 19.8% 15 54.0% 36.6% 17.4% 15
NM 49.2% 41.9% 7.3% 5 52.7% 38.4% 14.3% 5 53.1% 37.5% 15.6% 5
NY 59.5% 30.6% 28.9% 31 58.4% 31.7% 26.8% 31 59.2% 31.4% 27.8% 31
NC 44.0% 48.7% -4.7% 47.3% 45.5% 1.8% 15 47.7% 43.3% 4.3% 15 15
ND 40.1% 46.9% -6.8% 41.1% 45.9% -4.8% 38.2% 51.0% -12.8%

OH 47.4% 41.0% 6.4% 20 48.9% 39.5% 9.5% 20 47.4% 42.2% 5.2% 20
OK 40.4% 48.3% -7.8% 39.4% 49.3% -9.8% 40.6% 48.8% -8.3%
OR 47.2% 39.1% 8.1% 7 48.4% 37.9% 10.5% 7 51.9% 36.9% 15.0% 7
PA 49.2% 40.0% 9.2% 21 51.0% 38.2% 12.8% 21 50.9% 39.4% 11.5% 21
RI 59.7% 26.8% 32.9% 4 60.3% 26.3% 34.0% 4 60.7% 28.5% 32.2% 4

SC 43.9% 49.9% -6.0% 45.3% 48.5% -3.2% 46.7% 44.6% 2.0% 8 8
SD 43.0% 46.5% -3.5% 44.2% 45.3% -1.2% 41.1% 48.4% -7.3%
TN 48.0% 45.6% 2.4% 11 49.5% 44.1% 5.4% 11 51.6% 39.7% 11.9% 11
TX 43.8% 48.8% -4.9% 44.1% 48.5% -4.3% 43.7% 45.8% -2.1%
UT 33.3% 54.4% -21.1% 35.0% 52.6% -17.6% 28.8% 58.9% -30.1%

VT 53.4% 31.1% 22.3% 3 55.9% 28.6% 27.3% 3 55.8% 33.4% 22.5% 3
VA 45.1% 47.1% -2.0% 48.4% 43.9% 4.5% 13 46.5% 44.3% 2.2% 13 13
WA 49.8% 37.3% 12.5% 11 50.8% 36.3% 14.5% 11 52.0% 36.9% 15.1% 11
WV 51.5% 36.8% 14.7% 5 52.8% 35.5% 17.3% 5 54.4% 36.3% 18.1% 5
WI 48.8% 38.5% 10.3% 10 50.2% 37.1% 13.1% 10 48.1% 41.5% 6.5% 10
WY 36.8% 49.8% -13.0% 38.8% 47.9% -9.1% 39.1% 49.5% -10.3%


Vote Share Analysis

Clinton Vote shares Clinton Clinton
1996 Clinton Bush Other DNV True Recorded Diff <3% Exit Diff <3%
Share 85% 13% 32% 55% 50.54% 49.23% 1.30% 39 50.15% -0.39% 38
Total 39,033 4,145 6,554 3,337 53,069 47,400 5,669 52,665 404

AL 83.1% 11.4% 23.6% 49.4% 45.0% 43.2% 1.8% 1 44.4% -0.6% 1
AK 80.1% 8.8% 9.9% 40.4% 29.9% 33.3% -3.3% 33.3% 3.3%
AZ 84.2% 12.3% 28.2% 52.5% 46.5% 46.5% 0.0% 1 50.4% 3.8%
AR 86.4% 14.2% 38.2% 59.1% 58.4% 53.7% 4.7% 53.0% -5.4%
CA 85.6% 13.5% 34.6% 56.7% 54.5% 51.1% 3.4% 53.4% -1.0% 1

CO 83.5% 11.7% 25.4% 50.6% 47.3% 44.4% 2.9% 1 45.2% -2.1% 1
CT 86.1% 13.9% 37.0% 58.3% 52.5% 52.8% -0.3% 1 50.7% -1.8% 1
DE 85.8% 13.7% 35.6% 57.4% 53.6% 51.8% 1.8% 1 52.5% -1.1% 1
DC 96.0% 22.5% 81.7% 87.9% 87.0% 85.2% 1.8% 1 85.2% -1.8% 1
FL 84.6% 12.7% 30.3% 53.9% 47.8% 48.0% -0.2% 1 48.3% 0.5% 1

GA 84.0% 12.1% 27.3% 51.9% 49.3% 45.8% 3.5% 44.2% -5.2%
HI 87.3% 15.0% 42.6% 62.0% 55.6% 56.9% -1.4% 1 56.9% 1.4% 1
ID 80.3% 8.9% 10.5% 40.8% 31.2% 33.6% -2.4% 1 35.4% 4.2%
IL 86.5% 14.3% 39.0% 59.6% 56.5% 54.3% 2.2% 1 53.7% -2.8% 1
IN 82.7% 11.0% 21.4% 48.0% 43.8% 41.5% 2.2% 1 42.5% -1.2% 1

IA 85.3% 13.3% 33.4% 55.9% 50.1% 50.3% -0.2% 1 50.1% 0.0% 1
KS 81.0% 9.5% 13.8% 43.0% 37.5% 36.1% 1.4% 1 37.7% 0.2% 1
KY 84.0% 12.1% 27.3% 51.9% 48.6% 45.8% 2.7% 1 45.3% -3.2%
LA 85.8% 13.7% 35.8% 57.5% 51.6% 52.0% -0.4% 1 48.8% -2.8% 1
ME 85.7% 13.6% 35.3% 57.2% 50.1% 51.6% -1.5% 1 53.8% 3.7%

MD 86.5% 14.3% 38.9% 59.6% 58.0% 54.3% 3.8% 56.1% -2.0% 1
MA 88.7% 16.2% 48.9% 66.2% 61.0% 61.5% -0.4% 1 63.1% 2.1% 1
MI 85.7% 13.6% 35.4% 57.2% 51.9% 51.7% 0.2% 1 53.4% 1.6% 1
MN 85.6% 13.5% 34.6% 56.7% 52.5% 51.1% 1.4% 1 50.2% -2.2% 1
MS 83.4% 11.6% 24.9% 50.3% 47.7% 44.1% 3.6% 44.2% -3.4%

MO 84.5% 12.6% 29.7% 53.5% 51.3% 47.5% 3.8% 50.4% -0.9% 1
MT 82.6% 10.9% 20.9% 47.7% 41.2% 41.2% 0.0% 1 42.4% 1.2% 1
NE 80.6% 9.2% 12.3% 41.9% 33.2% 35.0% -1.8% 1 38.2% 5.0%
NV 83.4% 11.6% 24.7% 50.2% 43.4% 43.9% -0.5% 1 43.9% 0.5% 1
NH 85.0% 13.0% 32.1% 55.1% 49.5% 49.3% 0.2% 1 55.4% 5.9%

NJ 86.4% 14.2% 38.2% 59.1% 54.0% 53.7% 0.3% 1 54.7% 0.7% 1
NM 85.0% 13.0% 31.9% 55.0% 53.1% 49.2% 3.9% 52.7% -0.4% 1
NY 88.1% 15.7% 46.1% 64.4% 59.2% 59.5% -0.3% 1 58.4% -0.8% 1
NC 83.4% 11.6% 24.8% 50.2% 47.7% 44.0% 3.6% 47.3% -0.4% 1
ND 82.2% 10.6% 19.4% 46.7% 38.2% 40.1% -2.0% 1 41.1% 3.0% 1

OH 84.4% 12.5% 29.4% 53.3% 47.4% 47.4% 0.0% 1 48.9% 1.5% 1
OK 82.3% 10.7% 19.9% 47.0% 40.6% 40.4% 0.1% 1 39.4% -1.1% 1
OR 84.4% 12.5% 29.1% 53.1% 51.9% 47.2% 4.7% 48.4% -3.5%
PA 85.0% 13.0% 31.9% 54.9% 50.9% 49.2% 1.7% 1 51.0% 0.1% 1
RI 88.2% 15.8% 46.5% 64.6% 60.7% 59.7% 1.0% 1 60.3% -0.4% 1

SC 83.4% 11.6% 24.6% 50.1% 46.7% 43.9% 2.8% 1 45.3% -1.4% 1
SD 83.1% 11.4% 23.4% 49.3% 41.1% 43.0% -2.0% 1 44.2% 3.1%
TN 84.6% 12.7% 30.3% 53.9% 51.6% 48.0% 3.6% 49.5% -2.1% 1
TX 83.4% 11.6% 24.5% 50.1% 43.7% 43.8% -0.1% 1 44.1% 0.4% 1
UT 80.1% 8.8% 10.0% 40.4% 28.8% 33.3% -4.5% 35.0% 6.3%

VT 86.3% 14.1% 37.7% 58.8% 55.8% 53.4% 2.5% 1 55.9% 0.0% 1
VA 83.8% 11.9% 26.4% 51.3% 46.5% 45.1% 1.4% 1 48.4% 1.9% 1
WA 85.2% 13.2% 32.8% 55.6% 52.0% 49.8% 2.2% 1 50.8% -1.2% 1
WV 85.7% 13.6% 35.1% 57.1% 54.4% 51.5% 2.9% 1 52.8% -1.6% 1
WI 84.9% 12.9% 31.4% 54.6% 48.1% 48.8% -0.7% 1 50.2% 2.1% 1
WY 81.2% 9.7% 14.9% 43.7% 39.1% 36.8% 2.3% 1 38.8% -0.4% 1

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Electoral Vote Analysis

1992 Recorded Exit Poll True Vote Flipped to
Clinton Bush Margin EV Clinton Bush Margin EV Clinton Bush Margin EV Bush
44,910 39,105 5,805 366 52,048 39,661 12,387 432 58,012 35,014 22,998 521 14
43.01% 37.45% 5.56% 45.7% 34.8% 10.9% 50.9% 30.8% 20.2% 155 EV

AL 40.9% 47.6% -6.8% 41.5% 47.0% -5.6% 47.8% 33.4% 14.4% 9 9
AK 30.3% 39.5% -9.2% 30.3% 39.5% -9.2% 34.7% 44.4% -9.6%
AZ 36.5% 38.5% -2.0% 39.8% 35.2% 4.6% 10 43.0% 36.8% 6.1% 10 10
AR 53.2% 35.5% 17.7% 6 57.1% 31.6% 25.5% 6 55.2% 26.9% 28.3% 6
CA 46.0% 32.6% 13.4% 55 50.3% 28.4% 21.9% 55 53.3% 28.3% 24.9% 55

CO 40.1% 35.9% 4.3% 9 43.7% 32.3% 11.5% 9 49.4% 32.3% 17.1% 9
CT 42.2% 35.8% 6.4% 7 46.4% 31.6% 14.7% 7 51.3% 30.4% 20.8% 7
DE 43.5% 35.3% 8.2% 3 47.2% 31.7% 15.5% 3 50.1% 30.7% 19.4% 3
DC 84.6% 9.1% 75.5% 3 84.6% 9.1% 75.5% 3 91.0% -6.9% 97.9% 3
FL 39.0% 40.9% -1.9% 41.8% 38.1% 3.6% 27 46.4% 35.0% 11.4% 27 27

GA 43.5% 42.9% 0.6% 15 46.7% 39.6% 7.1% 15 49.1% 32.2% 16.9% 15
HI 48.1% 36.7% 11.4% 4 48.1% 36.7% 11.4% 4 57.9% 24.5% 33.4% 4
ID 28.4% 42.0% -13.6% 28.7% 41.8% -13.1% 36.3% 44.4% -8.1%
IL 48.6% 34.3% 14.2% 21 51.6% 31.3% 20.3% 21 55.6% 26.3% 29.2% 21
IN 36.8% 42.9% -6.1% 40.2% 39.5% 0.7% 11 46.6% 35.4% 11.2% 11 11

IA 43.3% 37.3% 6.0% 7 44.3% 36.3% 8.0% 7 54.5% 27.6% 26.9% 7
KS 33.7% 38.9% -5.1% 35.4% 37.2% -1.7% 43.1% 37.4% 5.7% 6 6
KY 44.6% 41.3% 3.2% 8 46.5% 39.4% 7.1% 8 49.0% 31.8% 17.3% 8
LA 45.6% 41.0% 4.6% 9 45.1% 41.5% 3.6% 9 53.2% 29.3% 23.9% 9
ME 38.8% 30.4% 8.4% 4 41.3% 27.8% 13.5% 4 47.5% 33.5% 14.0% 4

MD 49.8% 35.6% 14.2% 10 53.9% 31.6% 22.3% 10 56.3% 24.3% 31.9% 10
MA 47.5% 29.0% 18.5% 12 51.1% 25.5% 25.6% 12 58.3% 24.6% 33.6% 12
MI 43.8% 36.4% 7.4% 17 46.2% 33.9% 12.3% 17 50.9% 30.8% 20.1% 17
MN 43.5% 31.9% 11.6% 10 46.7% 28.7% 18.0% 10 53.1% 28.9% 24.2% 10
MS 40.8% 49.7% -8.9% 43.3% 47.1% -3.8% 47.5% 34.2% 13.3% 6 6

MO 44.1% 33.9% 10.2% 11 48.4% 29.6% 18.8% 11 53.0% 29.7% 23.2% 11
MT 37.6% 35.1% 2.5% 3 37.3% 35.5% 1.8% 3 48.6% 33.7% 14.9% 3
NE 29.4% 46.6% -17.2% 30.8% 45.2% -14.4% 40.8% 41.1% -0.2%
NV 37.4% 34.7% 2.6% 5 36.3% 35.8% 0.5% 5 42.2% 36.1% 6.2% 5
NH 38.9% 37.7% 1.2% 4 44.0% 32.6% 11.3% 4 43.9% 36.7% 7.2% 4

NJ 43.0% 40.6% 2.4% 15 48.6% 35.0% 13.6% 15 50.2% 32.1% 18.1% 15
NM 45.9% 37.3% 8.6% 5 49.0% 34.2% 14.9% 5 53.7% 27.5% 26.2% 5
NY 49.7% 33.9% 15.8% 31 52.0% 31.6% 20.4% 31 58.9% 23.9% 35.0% 31
NC 42.7% 43.4% -0.8% 44.8% 41.3% 3.4% 15 49.0% 31.9% 17.1% 15 15
ND 32.2% 44.2% -12.0% 34.3% 42.1% -7.8% 45.3% 38.1% 7.1% 3 3

OH 40.2% 38.3% 1.8% 20 42.4% 36.1% 6.2% 20 48.8% 33.4% 15.5% 20
OK 34.0% 42.6% -8.6% 36.4% 40.3% -3.9% 40.9% 39.5% 1.5% 7 7
OR 42.5% 32.5% 10.0% 7 49.3% 25.7% 23.6% 7 53.7% 27.7% 26.0% 7
PA 45.1% 36.1% 9.0% 21 46.1% 35.1% 11.0% 21 52.9% 29.0% 23.9% 21
RI 47.0% 29.0% 18.0% 4 51.5% 24.5% 27.0% 4 57.2% 24.8% 32.4% 4

SC 39.9% 48.0% -8.1% 40.9% 47.0% -6.1% 46.3% 34.1% 12.2% 8 8
SD 37.1% 40.7% -3.5% 35.7% 42.1% -6.3% 49.3% 34.0% 15.3% 3 3
TN 47.1% 42.4% 4.7% 11 50.5% 39.0% 11.5% 11 50.9% 30.6% 20.3% 11
TX 37.1% 40.6% -3.5% 38.5% 39.2% -0.7% 46.1% 35.6% 10.5% 34 34
UT 24.7% 43.4% -18.7% 25.8% 42.3% -16.5% 33.6% 47.4% -13.7%

VT 46.1% 30.4% 15.7% 3 50.4% 26.1% 24.3% 3 54.0% 27.4% 26.5% 3
VA 40.6% 45.0% -4.4% 42.3% 43.2% -0.9% 46.3% 35.0% 11.3% 13 13
WA 43.4% 32.0% 11.4% 11 46.2% 29.2% 16.9% 11 53.4% 27.8% 25.6% 11
WV 48.4% 35.4% 13.0% 5 50.0% 33.8% 16.2% 5 56.7% 25.8% 30.9% 5
WI 41.1% 36.8% 4.4% 10 42.4% 35.5% 6.9% 10 51.7% 30.4% 21.3% 10
WY 34.1% 39.7% -5.6% 37.0% 36.7% 0.3% 3 41.4% 39.9% 1.5% 3 3


Vote Share Analysis

Clinton Vote shares Clinton Clinton
1992 Dukakis Bush Other DNV True Recorded Diff <3% Exit Diff <3%
Share 83% 21% 32% 46% 50.95% 43.01% 7.94% 1 45.71% -5.24% 8
Total 39,400 9,774 330 8,507 58,012 44,910 13,102 52,048 5,964

AL 82.2% 20.0% 28.6% 43.3% 47.8% 40.9% 6.9% 41.5% -6.3%
AK 78.0% 14.8% 11.9% 30.0% 34.7% 30.3% 4.4% 30.3% -4.4%
AZ 80.4% 17.8% 21.7% 37.9% 43.0% 36.5% 6.5% 39.8% -3.2%
AR 87.0% 26.0% 48.1% 58.8% 55.2% 53.2% 2.0% 1 57.1% 1.9% 1
CA 84.2% 22.5% 36.7% 49.8% 53.3% 46.0% 7.3% 50.3% -3.0%

CO 81.9% 19.6% 27.4% 42.4% 49.4% 40.1% 9.3% 43.7% -5.7%
CT 82.7% 20.6% 30.7% 45.0% 51.3% 42.2% 9.0% 46.4% -4.9%
DE 83.2% 21.3% 32.8% 46.6% 50.1% 43.5% 6.6% 47.2% -2.9% 1
DC 99.5% 41.3% 97.8% 98.3% 91.0% 84.6% 6.3% 84.6% -6.3%
FL 81.4% 19.0% 25.7% 41.0% 46.4% 39.0% 7.4% 41.8% -4.6%

GA 83.2% 21.2% 32.7% 46.6% 49.1% 43.5% 5.6% 46.7% -2.3% 1
HI 85.0% 23.5% 40.0% 52.4% 57.9% 48.1% 9.8% 48.1% -9.8%
ID 77.2% 13.9% 8.9% 27.7% 36.3% 28.4% 7.9% 28.7% -7.7%
IL 85.2% 23.7% 40.8% 53.0% 55.6% 48.6% 7.0% 51.6% -3.9%
IN 80.5% 18.0% 22.2% 38.2% 46.6% 36.8% 9.8% 40.2% -6.4%

IA 83.1% 21.1% 32.4% 46.3% 54.5% 43.3% 11.2% 44.3% -10.2%
KS 79.3% 16.5% 17.3% 34.4% 43.1% 33.7% 9.4% 35.4% -7.7%
KY 83.6% 21.8% 34.4% 47.9% 49.0% 44.6% 4.5% 46.5% -2.5% 1
LA 84.0% 22.3% 36.1% 49.2% 53.2% 45.6% 7.6% 45.1% -8.1%
ME 81.3% 18.9% 25.3% 40.7% 47.5% 38.8% 8.8% 41.3% -6.2%

MD 85.7% 24.3% 42.7% 54.5% 56.3% 49.8% 6.5% 53.9% -2.4% 1
MA 84.8% 23.2% 39.2% 51.7% 58.3% 47.5% 10.7% 51.1% -7.2%
MI 83.3% 21.4% 33.2% 47.0% 50.9% 43.8% 7.1% 46.2% -4.7%
MN 83.2% 21.2% 32.8% 46.6% 53.1% 43.5% 9.6% 46.7% -6.4%
MS 82.1% 19.9% 28.5% 43.2% 47.5% 40.8% 6.7% 43.3% -4.2%

MO 83.4% 21.5% 33.7% 47.3% 53.0% 44.1% 8.9% 48.4% -4.6%
MT 80.9% 18.4% 23.5% 39.2% 48.6% 37.6% 11.0% 37.3% -11.3%
NE 77.6% 14.4% 10.5% 28.9% 40.8% 29.4% 11.4% 30.8% -10.0%
NV 80.8% 18.2% 23.1% 38.9% 42.2% 37.4% 4.9% 36.3% -5.9%
NH 81.4% 19.0% 25.5% 40.9% 43.9% 38.9% 5.0% 44.0% 0.0% 1

NJ 83.0% 21.0% 31.9% 45.9% 50.2% 43.0% 7.3% 48.6% -1.7% 1
NM 84.1% 22.4% 36.6% 49.6% 53.7% 45.9% 7.8% 49.0% -4.6%
NY 85.7% 24.3% 42.6% 54.4% 58.9% 49.7% 9.1% 52.0% -6.8%
NC 82.9% 20.8% 31.4% 45.6% 49.0% 42.7% 6.4% 44.8% -4.3%
ND 78.7% 15.7% 14.9% 32.4% 45.3% 32.2% 13.1% 34.3% -11.0%

OH 81.9% 19.6% 27.5% 42.5% 48.8% 40.2% 8.7% 42.4% -6.5%
OK 79.4% 16.6% 17.8% 34.7% 40.9% 34.0% 6.9% 36.4% -4.5%
OR 82.8% 20.7% 31.2% 45.3% 53.7% 42.5% 11.2% 49.3% -4.4%
PA 83.8% 22.0% 35.4% 48.7% 52.9% 45.1% 7.7% 46.1% -6.7%
RI 84.6% 23.0% 38.4% 51.1% 57.2% 47.0% 10.1% 51.5% -5.6%

SC 81.8% 19.5% 27.0% 42.1% 46.3% 39.9% 6.4% 40.9% -5.4%
SD 80.7% 18.1% 22.7% 38.6% 49.3% 37.1% 12.2% 35.7% -13.6%
TN 84.6% 23.0% 38.4% 51.1% 50.9% 47.1% 3.8% 50.5% -0.4% 1
TX 80.7% 18.1% 22.6% 38.6% 46.1% 37.1% 9.0% 38.5% -7.6%
UT 75.7% 12.0% 3.0% 23.0% 33.6% 24.7% 9.0% 25.8% -7.9%

VT 84.2% 22.5% 36.9% 49.9% 54.0% 46.1% 7.8% 50.4% -3.5%
VA 82.0% 19.8% 28.2% 43.0% 46.3% 40.6% 5.7% 42.3% -3.9%
WA 83.2% 21.2% 32.6% 46.5% 53.4% 43.4% 10.0% 46.2% -7.3%
WV 85.1% 23.6% 40.5% 52.8% 56.7% 48.4% 8.3% 50.0% -6.7%
WI 82.3% 20.1% 29.0% 43.6% 51.7% 41.1% 10.6% 42.4% -9.3%
WY 79.5% 16.7% 17.9% 34.8% 41.4% 34.1% 7.3% 37.0% -4.3%

[code]
1988 True Vote Analysis

Previous election True vote assumed equal to the unadjusted exit poll
Turnout Uncounted
Cast Recorded Unctd Rate Mort Mondale Reagan Dukakis Bush Other
1988 102,224 91,595 10,629 10.40% 5.00% 95.0% 95.0% 75% 24% 1%
1984 101,878 92,032 9,846 9.66%

Voted National
1984 Mix Dukakis Bush Other Dukakis Bush Other Total

DNV 10.07% 47% 51% 2% 4,839 5,251 206 10,296
Mondale 39.68% 92% 7% 1% 37,323 2,840 406 40,569
Reagan 50.15% 19% 80% 1% 9,742 41,020 513 51,275
Other 0.10% 49% 50% 1% 52 53 1 106

True Vote 312 EV 50.82% 48.08% 1.10% 51,957 49,164 1,125 102,247

Recorded 104 EV 45.65% 53.37% 0.98% 41,809 48,887 899 91,595
Deviation 5.17% -5.29% 0.12% 10,148 277 227 10,652

Exit Poll 205 EV 46.72% 52.31% 0.97% 42,790 47,912 893 91,595
Deviation 4.10% -4.22% 0.13% 9,167 1,252 233 10,652



1988 Election Sensitivity Analysis - returning voters based on Prior Exit Poll

Dukakis National Share %Reagan Dukakis National Share %Mondale
% DNV %Mondale 19% %Reagan %DNV 92%

90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49%

49% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 21% 51.6% 51.7% 51.8% 51.9% 52.0%
48% 50.1% 50.5% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 20% 51.1% 51.2% 51.3% 51.4% 51.5%
47% 50.0% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6% 19% 50.6% 50.7% 50.8% 50.9% 51.0%
46% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1% 51.5% 18% 50.1% 50.2% 50.3% 50.4% 50.5%
45% 49.8% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 17% 49.6% 49.7% 49.8% 49.9% 50.0%

National Margin National Margin
(in thousands) (in thousands)

49% 1,582 2,393 3,205 4,016 4,827 21% 4,432 4,638 4,844 5,050 5,256
48% 1,376 2,187 2,999 3,810 4,621 20% 3,407 3,613 3,819 4,024 4,230
47% 1,170 1,981 2,793 3,604 4,415 19% 2,381 2,587 2,793 2,999 3,205
46% 964 1,775 2,587 3,398 4,210 18% 1,356 1,562 1,767 1,973 2,179
45% 758 1,570 2,381 3,192 4,004 17% 330 536 742 948 1,154

Electoral Vote Electoral Vote

49% 287 290 315 330 363 21% 348 363 363 363 363
48% 256 290 312 321 363 20% 321 321 321 324 348
47% 251 290 312 321 363 19% 290 305 312 312 315
46% 234 287 305 321 348 18% 282 287 287 290 305
45% 234 287 290 321 345 17% 225 234 234 234 245


Electoral Vote Analysis

1988 Recorded Exit Poll True Vote Flipped to
Dukakis Bush Margin EV Dukakis Bush Margin EV Dukakis Bush Margin EV Bush
41,809 48,887 (7,077) 104 47,766 53,484 (5,718) 205 51,828 49,293 2,535 312 14
45.65% 53.37% -7.73% 46.7% 52.3% -5.6% 50.7% 48.2% 2.5% 208 EV

39.9% 59.2% -19.3% 39.9% 59.2% -19.3% 48.9% 50.0% -1.1%
36.3% 59.6% -23.3% 36.9% 59.0% -22.1% 36.3% 62.6% -26.2%
38.7% 60.0% -21.2% 38.7% 60.0% -21.2% 43.6% 55.2% -11.5%
42.2% 56.4% -14.2% 41.8% 56.8% -15.0% 49.3% 49.6% -0.3%
47.6% 51.1% -3.6% 49.5% 49.2% 0.2% 55 51.1% 47.8% 3.2% 55 55

45.3% 53.1% -7.8% 46.8% 51.6% -4.8% 47.7% 51.1% -3.4%
46.9% 52.0% -5.1% 49.5% 49.4% 0.1% 7 49.5% 49.4% 0.0% 7 7
43.5% 55.9% -12.4% 44.4% 55.0% -10.6% 49.9% 49.0% 0.9% 3 3
82.6% 14.3% 68.3% 3 82.6% 14.3% 68.3% 3 88.4% 10.5% 77.9% 3
38.5% 60.9% -22.4% 39.7% 59.7% -20.0% 45.7% 53.2% -7.4%

39.5% 59.8% -20.3% 38.6% 60.7% -22.1% 49.6% 49.3% 0.3% 15 15
54.3% 44.8% 9.5% 4 54.6% 44.5% 10.1% 4 56.9% 41.9% 15.0% 4
36.0% 62.1% -26.1% 36.0% 62.1% -26.1% 37.0% 61.9% -24.8%
48.6% 50.7% -2.1% 49.9% 49.4% 0.5% 21 53.6% 45.4% 8.2% 21 21
39.7% 59.8% -20.2% 44.3% 55.2% -11.0% 47.0% 51.9% -4.9%

54.7% 44.5% 10.2% 7 55.0% 44.2% 10.8% 7 56.8% 42.1% 14.7% 7
42.6% 55.8% -13.2% 44.4% 54.0% -9.6% 44.1% 54.8% -10.7%
43.9% 55.5% -11.6% 44.4% 55.0% -10.6% 47.2% 51.7% -4.4%
44.1% 54.3% -10.2% 45.3% 53.1% -7.8% 50.5% 48.4% 2.1% 9 9
43.9% 55.3% -11.5% 47.1% 52.1% -5.1% 48.0% 50.9% -3.0%

48.2% 51.1% -2.9% 50.8% 48.5% 2.3% 10 55.2% 43.7% 11.5% 10 10
53.2% 45.4% 7.9% 12 56.6% 42.0% 14.7% 12 57.7% 41.1% 16.6% 12
45.7% 53.6% -7.9% 46.3% 53.0% -6.7% 50.3% 48.7% 1.6% 17 17
52.9% 45.9% 7.0% 10 52.3% 46.5% 5.8% 10 58.1% 40.8% 17.2% 10
39.1% 59.9% -20.8% 39.0% 60.0% -21.0% 48.0% 50.9% -2.9%

47.9% 51.8% -4.0% 48.2% 51.5% -3.4% 51.9% 47.0% 4.8% 11 11
46.2% 52.1% -5.9% 48.4% 49.9% -1.5% 48.9% 50.1% -1.2%
39.2% 60.2% -21.0% 41.7% 57.7% -16.0% 40.6% 58.3% -17.6%
37.9% 58.9% -20.9% 39.4% 57.4% -17.9% 41.2% 57.6% -16.4%
36.3% 62.5% -26.2% 39.3% 59.5% -20.2% 39.4% 59.4% -20.0%

42.6% 56.2% -13.6% 44.7% 54.1% -9.4% 48.8% 50.1% -1.3%
46.9% 51.9% -5.0% 50.2% 48.6% 1.6% 5 50.1% 48.8% 1.4% 5 5
51.6% 47.5% 4.1% 31 55.2% 43.9% 11.3% 31 56.1% 42.9% 13.2% 31
41.7% 58.0% -16.3% 41.9% 57.8% -15.9% 48.6% 50.3% -1.6%
43.0% 56.0% -13.1% 43.8% 55.2% -11.5% 46.0% 52.9% -6.9%

44.1% 55.0% -10.9% 44.9% 54.2% -9.3% 50.2% 48.7% 1.4% 20 20
41.3% 57.9% -16.6% 38.5% 60.7% -22.2% 42.5% 56.4% -13.9%
51.3% 46.6% 4.7% 7 55.0% 42.9% 12.1% 7 54.2% 44.7% 9.5% 7
48.4% 50.7% -2.3% 48.8% 50.3% -1.5% 54.9% 44.0% 10.9% 21 21
55.6% 43.9% 11.7% 4 55.5% 44.0% 11.5% 4 59.1% 39.8% 19.3% 4

37.6% 61.5% -23.9% 38.3% 60.8% -22.5% 46.6% 52.3% -5.7%
46.5% 52.8% -6.3% 47.0% 52.3% -5.3% 49.3% 49.6% -0.2%
41.5% 57.9% -16.3% 41.0% 58.4% -17.3% 50.3% 48.7% 1.6% 11 11
43.3% 56.0% -12.6% 42.9% 56.4% -13.4% 47.6% 51.3% -3.7%
32.0% 66.2% -34.2% 32.0% 66.2% -34.2% 35.8% 63.0% -27.2%

47.6% 51.1% -3.5% 50.5% 48.2% 2.3% 3 51.2% 47.6% 3.6% 3 3
39.2% 59.7% -20.5% 38.9% 60.0% -21.1% 46.5% 52.4% -5.8%
50.0% 48.5% 1.6% 11 52.7% 45.8% 7.0% 11 53.9% 45.0% 9.0% 11
52.2% 47.5% 4.7% 5 52.3% 47.4% 4.9% 5 55.6% 43.4% 12.2% 5
51.4% 47.8% 3.6% 10 50.3% 48.9% 1.4% 10 55.9% 43.0% 13.0% 10
38.0% 60.5% -22.5% 37.5% 61.0% -23.5% 40.1% 58.8% -18.7%


Vote Share Analysis

Dukakis Vote shares Dukakis Dukakis
Mondale Reagan Other DNV True Recorded Diff <3% Exit Diff <3%
92% 19% 49% 47% 50.69% 45.65% 5.04% 13 46.72% -3.97% 24
37,350 9,665 50 4,763 51,828 41,809 10,018 47,766 4,062

91.0% 16.6% 42.5% 40.3% 48.9% 39.9% 9.0% 39.9% -9.0%
90.4% 15.1% 38.5% 36.1% 36.3% 36.3% 0.1% 1 36.9% 0.5% 1
90.8% 16.1% 41.3% 39.0% 43.6% 38.7% 4.9% 38.7% -4.9%
91.4% 17.6% 45.1% 43.0% 49.3% 42.2% 7.1% 41.8% -7.5%
92.3% 19.8% 51.1% 49.2% 51.1% 47.6% 3.5% 49.5% -1.6% 1

91.9% 18.8% 48.6% 46.6% 47.7% 45.3% 2.4% 1 46.8% -0.9% 1
92.2% 19.5% 50.4% 48.4% 49.5% 46.9% 2.6% 1 49.5% 0.0% 1
91.6% 18.1% 46.6% 44.5% 49.9% 43.5% 6.4% 44.4% -5.5%
98.5% 34.4% 90.3% 90.0% 88.4% 82.6% 5.8% 82.6% -5.8%
90.7% 16.0% 41.0% 38.7% 45.7% 38.5% 7.2% 39.7% -6.0%

90.9% 16.4% 42.1% 39.9% 49.6% 39.5% 10.1% 38.6% -11.0%
93.5% 22.6% 58.6% 57.0% 56.9% 54.3% 2.6% 1 54.6% -2.3% 1
90.3% 15.0% 38.2% 35.8% 37.0% 36.0% 1.0% 1 36.0% -1.0% 1
92.5% 20.2% 52.3% 50.4% 53.6% 48.6% 5.0% 49.9% -3.7%
91.0% 16.5% 42.3% 40.1% 47.0% 39.7% 7.3% 44.3% -2.7% 1

93.6% 22.8% 59.1% 57.5% 56.8% 54.7% 2.1% 1 55.0% -1.8% 1
91.5% 17.7% 45.6% 43.4% 44.1% 42.6% 1.6% 1 44.4% 0.2% 1
91.7% 18.3% 47.0% 45.0% 47.2% 43.9% 3.4% 44.4% -2.9% 1
91.7% 18.3% 47.2% 45.2% 50.5% 44.1% 6.5% 45.3% -5.3%
91.7% 18.3% 47.0% 45.0% 48.0% 43.9% 4.1% 47.1% -0.9% 1

92.4% 20.1% 51.9% 50.0% 55.2% 48.2% 7.0% 50.8% -4.4%
93.3% 22.2% 57.5% 55.8% 57.7% 53.2% 4.5% 56.6% -1.1% 1
92.0% 19.0% 49.0% 47.0% 50.3% 45.7% 4.6% 46.3% -4.0%
93.3% 22.0% 57.1% 55.4% 58.1% 52.9% 5.1% 52.3% -5.7%
90.8% 16.3% 41.6% 39.4% 48.0% 39.1% 8.9% 39.0% -9.0%

92.4% 19.9% 51.5% 49.6% 51.9% 47.9% 4.0% 48.2% -3.7%
92.1% 19.2% 49.6% 47.6% 48.9% 46.2% 2.7% 1 48.4% -0.5% 1
90.9% 16.3% 41.8% 39.5% 40.6% 39.2% 1.4% 1 41.7% 1.1% 1
90.6% 15.8% 40.4% 38.0% 41.2% 37.9% 3.2% 39.4% -1.7% 1
90.4% 15.1% 38.6% 36.2% 39.4% 36.3% 3.0% 39.3% 0.0% 1

91.5% 17.7% 45.6% 43.5% 48.8% 42.6% 6.2% 44.7% -4.1%
92.2% 19.5% 50.4% 48.5% 50.1% 46.9% 3.2% 50.2% 0.1% 1
93.0% 21.5% 55.7% 53.9% 56.1% 51.6% 4.4% 55.2% -0.8% 1
91.3% 17.4% 44.6% 42.4% 48.6% 41.7% 6.9% 41.9% -6.7%
91.5% 17.9% 46.0% 43.9% 46.0% 43.0% 3.0% 43.8% -2.2% 1

91.7% 18.4% 47.3% 45.3% 50.2% 44.1% 6.0% 44.9% -5.2%
91.2% 17.2% 44.1% 41.9% 42.5% 41.3% 1.2% 1 38.5% -4.0%
93.0% 21.3% 55.3% 53.5% 54.2% 51.3% 2.9% 1 55.0% 0.8% 1
92.5% 20.1% 52.1% 50.2% 54.9% 48.4% 6.6% 48.8% -6.2%
93.8% 23.2% 60.2% 58.6% 59.1% 55.6% 3.4% 55.5% -3.5%

90.6% 15.6% 40.0% 37.6% 46.6% 37.6% 9.0% 38.3% -8.3%
92.2% 19.4% 50.0% 48.0% 49.3% 46.5% 2.8% 1 47.0% -2.3% 1
91.3% 17.3% 44.4% 42.2% 50.3% 41.5% 8.7% 41.0% -9.2%
91.6% 18.0% 46.4% 44.3% 47.6% 43.3% 4.2% 42.9% -4.6%
89.6% 13.3% 33.8% 31.2% 35.8% 32.0% 3.8% 32.0% -3.8%

92.3% 19.8% 51.2% 49.2% 51.2% 47.6% 3.6% 50.5% -0.7% 1
90.9% 16.3% 41.8% 39.6% 46.5% 39.2% 7.3% 38.9% -7.6%
92.8% 20.8% 53.9% 52.1% 53.9% 50.0% 3.9% 52.7% -1.2% 1
93.1% 21.7% 56.3% 54.6% 55.6% 52.2% 3.4% 52.3% -3.3%
93.0% 21.4% 55.4% 53.7% 55.9% 51.4% 4.5% 50.3% -5.6%
90.7% 15.8% 40.5% 38.1% 40.1% 38.0% 2.1% 1 37.5% -2.6% 1