In calculating the True Vote, the statistics which must be estimated for prior Dem and Repub candidates are:

1) shares of uncounted votes (typically 70-80% are Democratic)
2) prior voter turnout in the current election (94-98%)
3) prior voter mortality (5.0% is a very close estimate)
4) current election vote shares (use preliminary exit polls, if available (2004); if not available (2008), use the Final NEP shares.

The key assumptions that are always questioned are 1) and 2).
We can easily address uncertainty with sensitivity analysis.

Consider the base case for 2004:
Assume equal 98% returning Gore/Bush voter turnout.
Assume 75/25% Gore/Bush split of 5.4 million uncounted votes
Kerry wins the base case: 53.2-45.5%, 66.9-57.1m (9.8m margin), 379 EV

For the sensitivity analysis, there are two sets of scenarios:
1) Gore voter turnout vs. Bush voter turnout (90-98%)
2) Gore voter turnout (90-98%) vs. Gore share of uncounted votes (50-80%)
(assume 98% Bush turnout)

Worst case scenarios for each set:
Set 1) Kerry wins 52.1%, 7.0m margin, 346 EV
Set 2) Kerry wins the worst case 51.2%, 4.8m margin, 325 EV

What does it mean?

Kerry's margin is not too sensitive to Gore's share of uncounted votes.
A 30% differential (50-80) in uncounted share = 1.0% change in share, 2.6m in margin

Kerry's margin is sensitive to Gore voter turnout
An 8% differential in turnout from Bush = 1.1% change in share, 2.8m in margin

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National True Vote Analysis
2000 National 2004 Turnout in 2004 Unctd / stuffed
Cast Official Unctd Alive Cast Official Unctd Mort Gore Bush Gore Bush Other
110.8 105.4 5.4 105.3 125.7 122.3 3.4 6.1 98% 98% 75% 24% 1%
- 95.1% 4.9% 95.0% - 97.3% 2.7% 5.0% - - 0% 100% -

Vote (mil) Pct Share (%) Vote (mil)
MoE 2000 Cast Recorded Alive Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
1.72% DNV - - - 22.6 17.9 57.0 41.0 2.0 12.86 9.25 0.45 22.56
0.99% Gore 55.3 51.0 52.6 51.5 41.0 91.0 8.0 1.0 46.88 4.12 0.51 51.51
1.04% Bush 51.5 50.5 48.9 47.9 38.1 10.0 90.0 0.0 4.79 43.14 0.00 47.93
1.66% Other 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.0 64.0 17.1 18.9 2.39 0.64 0.71 3.73
1.73% True 110.8 105.4 105.3 125.7 379EV 53.2% 45.5% 1.3% 66.92 57.15 1.67 125.74

2000 Bush Gore Other Recorded 48.3 50.7 1.0 59.03 62.04 1.22 122.29
Recorded 47.9 48.4 3.8 Diff 5.0 -5.3 0.3 7.89 -4.89 0.45 3.44
ExitP 46.9 49.4 3.8 Exit Poll 51.9 47.1 1.0 63.49 57.58 1.23 122.29
Cast 46.5 49.9 3.6 Diff 1.3 -1.6 0.3 3.43 -0.43 0.45 3.44



2004 National 2004 National
Bush Gore voter turnout Gore Gore share of uncounted
turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% turnout 50% 60% 67% 75% 80%
Kerry Share (%) Kerry share %
90% 53.5 53.8 54.1 54.4 54.7 98% 52.4 52.7 52.9 53.2 53.4
92% 53.2 53.5 53.7 54.0 54.3 96% 52.1 52.4 52.7 52.9 53.1
94% 52.8 53.1 53.4 53.7 53.9 94% 51.8 52.1 52.4 52.7 52.8
96% 52.4 52.7 53.0 53.3 53.6 92% 51.5 51.9 52.1 52.4 52.5
98% 52.1 52.4 52.7 52.9 53.2 90% 51.2 51.6 51.8 52.1 52.3

Kerry Margin (mil.) Kerry margin (mil.)
90% 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.4 98% 7.6 8.5 9.1 9.8 10.2
92% 9.7 10.4 11.1 11.8 12.5 96% 6.9 7.8 8.4 9.1 9.5
94% 8.8 9.5 10.2 10.9 11.6 94% 6.2 7.1 7.7 8.4 8.8
96% 7.9 8.6 9.3 10.0 10.7 92% 5.5 6.4 7.0 7.7 8.1
98% 7.0 7.7 8.4 9.1 9.8 90% 4.8 5.7 6.3 7.0 7.4

Kerry Electoral Vote Kerry Electoral Vote
90% 390 390 390 398 398 98% 346 352 357 379 390
92% 379 390 390 390 398 96% 346 346 351 351 373
94% 351 379 390 390 390 94% 346 346 346 351 360
96% 351 351 370 390 390 92% 335 346 346 351 351
98% 346 351 351 351 379 90% 325 346 346 346 351
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MoE 1.04% 0.94% 0.82% 0.68% 0.49% MoE 1.73% 1.70% 1.63% 1.50% 1.39%