TruthIsAll
05-18-2009, 11:55 AM
Key Indicators of Election Fraud: Incumbency, the Final National Exit Poll and Voter Turnout
TruthIsAll
Returning voter turnout implied by the Final National Exit Poll is a key indicator of election fraud.
There is a direct relationship between turnout and the recorded vote deviation from the True vote.
Prior election voter turnout must be less than 100% due to mortality and other factors.
In the four elections since 1988 with Reagan or Bush (3) the incumbent, prior voter turnout was impossible.
The recorded Democratic vote share was far below the calculated True share.
In the two elections with Clinton the incumbent, prior voter turnout was plausible.
The recorded Democratic vote share was very close to the calculated True share.
Republican incumbent:
1988: 106% turnout of 1984 Reagan voters; 5.2% deviation in the Democratic True vote share
1992: 117% turnout of 1988 Bush voters; 8.1% deviation
2004: 112% turnout of 2000 Bush voters; 5.4% deviation
2008: 106% turnout of 2004 Bush voters; 4.4% deviation
Democratic incumbent:
1996: 91% turnout of 1992 Bush voters; 1.9% deviation
2000: 100% turnout of 1996 Bush voters; 0.7% deviation
[code]
1988
1984 1984 95% 95% 1988 Voted NEP NEP Vote Shares
Voted Recorded Alive Turnout Voted /Turnout Mix Dukakis Bush Other
DNV - - - 10,075 - 11% 47% 51% 2%
Mondale 37,577 35,698 33,913 29,310 86% 32% 92% 7% 1%
Reagan 54,460 51,737 49,150 52,209 106% 57% 19% 80% 1%
Total 92,037 87,435 83,063 91,595 110.3% 100% 45.44% 53.45% 1.11%
91,595 41,621 48,957 1,017
Recorded 45.65% 53.37% 0.98%
41,809 48,887 899
True Vote 50.82% 48.08% 1.10%
Deviation 5.17% -5.29% 0.12%
1992
1988 1988 95% 98% 1992 Voted NEP NEP Vote Shares
Voted Recorded Alive Turnout Voted /Turnout Mix Clinton Bush Other
DNV - - - 16,708 - 16% 46% 32% 22%
Dukakis 41,809 39,719 38,925 33,416 86% 32% 83% 5% 12%
Bush 48,887 46,442 45,513 53,256 117% 51% 21% 59% 20%
Other 899 854 837 1,044 125% 1% 50% 50% 0%
Total 91,595 87,015 85,275 104,424 122.5% 100% 45.13% 37.31% 17.56%
104,424 47,127 38,961 18,337
Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54%
44,910 39,105 20,410
True Vote 51.13% 32.05% 16.82%
Deviation 8.13% -5.40% -2.73%
1996
1992 1992 95% 88% 1996 Voted NEP NEP Vote Shares
Voted Recorded Alive Turnout Voted /Turnout Mix Clinton Dole Other
DNV - - - 8,665 - 9% 54% 34% 12%
Clinton 44,910 42,664 37,545 37,547 100% 39% 85% 9% 6%
Bush 39,105 37,149 32,691 29,845 91% 31% 13% 82% 5%
Other 20,410 19,389 17,062 20,218 118% 21% 35% 45% 20%
Total 104,424 99,203 87,298 96,275 110.3% 100% 49.39% 41.44% 9.17%
96,275 47,550 39,897 8,828
Recorded 49.23% 40.72% 10.05%
47,400 39,199 9,677
True Vote 51.18% 40.00% 8.82%
Deviation 1.95% -0.71% -1.23%
2000
1996 1996 95% 96% 2000 Voted NEP NEP Vote Shares
Voted Recorded Alive Turnout Voted /Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV - - - 16,867 - 16% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 47,400 45,030 43,229 45,330 105% 43% 82% 15% 3%
Dole 39,199 37,239 35,749 35,842 100% 34% 7% 91% 2%
Other 9,677 9,193 8,825 7,379 84% 7% 35% 45% 20%
Total 96,275 91,462 87,803 105,417 120.1% 100% 48.41% 47.42% 4.17%
105,417 51,033 49,989 4,396
Recorded 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
51,004 50,460 3,953
True Vote 49.08% 46.48% 4.44%
Deviation 0.70% -1.39% 0.69%
2004
2000 2000 95% 98% 2004 Voted NEP NEP Vote Shares
Voted Recorded Alive Turnout Voted /Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - 20,790 - 17% 54% 45% 1%
Gore 51,004 48,454 47,485 45,249 95% 37% 90% 10% 0%
Bush 50,460 47,937 46,978 52,586 112% 43% 9% 91% 0%
Other 3,953 3,756 3,681 3,669 100% 3% 64% 17% 19%
Total 105,417 100,147 98,144 122,294 124.6% 100% 48.27% 50.99% 0.74%
122,294 59,031 62,357 905
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
59,028 62,041 1,224
True Vote 53.70% 44.94% 1.36%
Deviation 5.43% -5.79% 0.36%
2008
2004 2004 95% 97% 2008 Voted NEP NEP Vote Shares
Voted Recorded Alive Turnout Voted /Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - - - 17,078 - 13% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 59,028 56,077 54,395 48,607 89% 37% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 62,041 58,939 57,170 60,430 106% 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1,224 1,163 1,128 5,255 466% 4% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122,294 116,179 112,694 131,370 116.6% 100% 52.62% 45.52% 1.86%
131,370 69,127 59,800 2,443
Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
69,457 59,935 1,978
True Vote 57.30% 41.03% 1.67%
Deviation 4.43% -4.59% 0.16%
TruthIsAll
Returning voter turnout implied by the Final National Exit Poll is a key indicator of election fraud.
There is a direct relationship between turnout and the recorded vote deviation from the True vote.
Prior election voter turnout must be less than 100% due to mortality and other factors.
In the four elections since 1988 with Reagan or Bush (3) the incumbent, prior voter turnout was impossible.
The recorded Democratic vote share was far below the calculated True share.
In the two elections with Clinton the incumbent, prior voter turnout was plausible.
The recorded Democratic vote share was very close to the calculated True share.
Republican incumbent:
1988: 106% turnout of 1984 Reagan voters; 5.2% deviation in the Democratic True vote share
1992: 117% turnout of 1988 Bush voters; 8.1% deviation
2004: 112% turnout of 2000 Bush voters; 5.4% deviation
2008: 106% turnout of 2004 Bush voters; 4.4% deviation
Democratic incumbent:
1996: 91% turnout of 1992 Bush voters; 1.9% deviation
2000: 100% turnout of 1996 Bush voters; 0.7% deviation
[code]
1988
1984 1984 95% 95% 1988 Voted NEP NEP Vote Shares
Voted Recorded Alive Turnout Voted /Turnout Mix Dukakis Bush Other
DNV - - - 10,075 - 11% 47% 51% 2%
Mondale 37,577 35,698 33,913 29,310 86% 32% 92% 7% 1%
Reagan 54,460 51,737 49,150 52,209 106% 57% 19% 80% 1%
Total 92,037 87,435 83,063 91,595 110.3% 100% 45.44% 53.45% 1.11%
91,595 41,621 48,957 1,017
Recorded 45.65% 53.37% 0.98%
41,809 48,887 899
True Vote 50.82% 48.08% 1.10%
Deviation 5.17% -5.29% 0.12%
1992
1988 1988 95% 98% 1992 Voted NEP NEP Vote Shares
Voted Recorded Alive Turnout Voted /Turnout Mix Clinton Bush Other
DNV - - - 16,708 - 16% 46% 32% 22%
Dukakis 41,809 39,719 38,925 33,416 86% 32% 83% 5% 12%
Bush 48,887 46,442 45,513 53,256 117% 51% 21% 59% 20%
Other 899 854 837 1,044 125% 1% 50% 50% 0%
Total 91,595 87,015 85,275 104,424 122.5% 100% 45.13% 37.31% 17.56%
104,424 47,127 38,961 18,337
Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54%
44,910 39,105 20,410
True Vote 51.13% 32.05% 16.82%
Deviation 8.13% -5.40% -2.73%
1996
1992 1992 95% 88% 1996 Voted NEP NEP Vote Shares
Voted Recorded Alive Turnout Voted /Turnout Mix Clinton Dole Other
DNV - - - 8,665 - 9% 54% 34% 12%
Clinton 44,910 42,664 37,545 37,547 100% 39% 85% 9% 6%
Bush 39,105 37,149 32,691 29,845 91% 31% 13% 82% 5%
Other 20,410 19,389 17,062 20,218 118% 21% 35% 45% 20%
Total 104,424 99,203 87,298 96,275 110.3% 100% 49.39% 41.44% 9.17%
96,275 47,550 39,897 8,828
Recorded 49.23% 40.72% 10.05%
47,400 39,199 9,677
True Vote 51.18% 40.00% 8.82%
Deviation 1.95% -0.71% -1.23%
2000
1996 1996 95% 96% 2000 Voted NEP NEP Vote Shares
Voted Recorded Alive Turnout Voted /Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV - - - 16,867 - 16% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 47,400 45,030 43,229 45,330 105% 43% 82% 15% 3%
Dole 39,199 37,239 35,749 35,842 100% 34% 7% 91% 2%
Other 9,677 9,193 8,825 7,379 84% 7% 35% 45% 20%
Total 96,275 91,462 87,803 105,417 120.1% 100% 48.41% 47.42% 4.17%
105,417 51,033 49,989 4,396
Recorded 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
51,004 50,460 3,953
True Vote 49.08% 46.48% 4.44%
Deviation 0.70% -1.39% 0.69%
2004
2000 2000 95% 98% 2004 Voted NEP NEP Vote Shares
Voted Recorded Alive Turnout Voted /Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - 20,790 - 17% 54% 45% 1%
Gore 51,004 48,454 47,485 45,249 95% 37% 90% 10% 0%
Bush 50,460 47,937 46,978 52,586 112% 43% 9% 91% 0%
Other 3,953 3,756 3,681 3,669 100% 3% 64% 17% 19%
Total 105,417 100,147 98,144 122,294 124.6% 100% 48.27% 50.99% 0.74%
122,294 59,031 62,357 905
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
59,028 62,041 1,224
True Vote 53.70% 44.94% 1.36%
Deviation 5.43% -5.79% 0.36%
2008
2004 2004 95% 97% 2008 Voted NEP NEP Vote Shares
Voted Recorded Alive Turnout Voted /Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - - - 17,078 - 13% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 59,028 56,077 54,395 48,607 89% 37% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 62,041 58,939 57,170 60,430 106% 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1,224 1,163 1,128 5,255 466% 4% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122,294 116,179 112,694 131,370 116.6% 100% 52.62% 45.52% 1.86%
131,370 69,127 59,800 2,443
Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
69,457 59,935 1,978
True Vote 57.30% 41.03% 1.67%
Deviation 4.43% -4.59% 0.16%