TruthIsAll
02-22-2010, 02:21 PM
Debunking the Vote Swing / Exit Poll Red Shift Argument: 1992-2004
TruthIsAll
Mar. 2, 2010
Exit poll naysayers claimed that the near-zero correlation between Swing (change in vote share from 2000 to 2004) and Red shift (the 2004 exit poll discrepancy) “kills the fraud argument”. But the premise was wrong since it incorrectly assumed that the recorded vote reflected the True Vote, yet there were nearly six million uncounted votes in 2000 and four million in 2004. When unadjusted state exit polls were used as a proxy for the True Vote, the correlation was strong. To use the recorded vote as the basis for claiming that the exit polls were wrong and the 2004 election was fraud-free is just one example of disinformation promoted to cast doubt on the aggregate unadjusted state exit polls - won by Kerry (52-47%).
The exit pollster initial explanation for the discrepancies was that non-response bias skewed the exit polls - the so-called reluctant Bush responder (rBr). Then came Swing vs. Red shift. Finally, False Recall was promoted to explain the impossible number of returning Bush voters implied by the Final National Exit Poll; once again, the recorded vote was used as the baseline, rather than total votes cast (i.e. uncounted votes and the True Vote were ignored).
To use a fraudulent recorded vote as the basis for calculating swing and then claim that the near-zero correlation “kills the fraud argument” is a logical fallacy. Elections can be fraudulent or fraud-free regardless of the correlation. In 2000, the exit poll discrepancy (2.0 WPD) was much lower than in 2004 (7.4WPD), yet the correlation ratios were significantly higher in 2000. The scatter graphs shown below kill the naysayer 2004 Swing/ Red shift “no slope, no fraud” canard.
The fallacy of the argument is confirmed in each of the 1992, 1996 and 2000 elections. The True Vote Swing/ Red shift correlation is much stronger than the corresponding Recorded Vote correlation (the regression line slope is much steeper). The average absolute True Vote correlation was .33 higher than the Recorded Vote.
The recorded state vote swing/red shift regression lines were flat in both 2004 (high WPD) and in 1996 (low WPD). On the contrary, in 2000 low WPD) the regression line was steep – refuting the premise.
In 2004, the average Battleground state recorded vote correlation was 0.45; it was near zero in both Democratic and Republican states. But the exit poll discrepancies (WPD) in Democratic states were higher than in Battleground states- another refutation of the premise.
1) In 2004, True Vote Swing/ Red shift correlation was 0.56. Recorded Vote correlation was 0.11. There were close to 4 million uncounted votes.
2) In 2000 the exit poll discrepancies (2.0 WPD) were much lower than in 2004 (7.4 WPD). But the 2000 Recorded vote correlation was 0.38; it was 0.11 in 2004. Nearly 6 million votes were uncounted.
3) In 1996, the WPD was a low 1.9 with a 0.02 Recorded Vote and 0.41 True Vote correlations. There were nearly 10 million uncounted votes.
4) In 1992, the WPD was a high 5.4 with a 0.21 Recorded Vote and 0.40 True Vote correlations. There were nearly 10 million uncounted votes.
In every election, the Democrats do better in the exit poll than the recorded vote. In each election for which prior election unadjusted state exit poll (WPD) data is available (1992 to 2004), correlations based on exit poll swing were significantly stronger than the corresponding recorded swing correlations. One reason is that (mostly Democratic) uncounted votes are not included in the recorded vote but are counted in the unadjusted exit polls.
The Census indicates there were nearly six million uncounted votes in 2000 and 4 million in 2004. Obviously, the recorded vote did not equal the True Vote in either election. It never does. The unadjusted 2004 aggregate state exit poll determined that Kerry was a 52-47% winner, but Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. The aggregate 7.4% WPD is the difference in margin. In 2000, the WPD indicated that Gore’s exit poll margin was 2% higher than his recorded 0.5% margin.
Unfortunately, the National Election Pool consortium has never released unadjusted precinct exit poll data. The transparent claim is the need for exit poll respondent confidentiality. Of course, they could release the data without providing personal information if they wanted to. In their 2004 report, the pollsters did provide average state exit poll WPD data for all elections since 1988. That report provided more than enough historical information to hoist the NEP, the pollsters and the naysayers on their own petard. No wonder they have not released the 2008 exit poll report.
The Swing Redshift 1992-2004 graph displays True and Recorded Vote Swing and Red shift (based on 238 state exit polls) for the 1992-2004 elections. The 0.39 True Vote Swing/Red shift correlation is significant. The near-zero 0.05 Recorded Vote Swing / Red shift correlation and flat regression is misleading due to the millions of documented uncounted votes – not to mention the millions of phantom votes switched and stuffed in cyberspace.
These graphs display for each election the State Recorded and True Vote share Swing vs. the unadjusted Exit Poll Red shift (i.e. WPD).
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculator_19922004_image001.gif
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_1992_image001.gif
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_1996_image001.gif
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_2000_image001.gif
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_2004_image001.gif
These graphs display for each election the State Recorded and True Vote share Swing vs. the unadjusted Exit Poll Red shift (i.e. WPD).
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_BG_image001.gif
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_Dem_image001.gif
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_Rep_image001.gif
[code]
Note: 2008 unadjusted state exit polls have not been released. WPD is estimated.
Net Recorded 75/25% Adj Unctd Unadj Exit Poll True Vote
Cast Record Unctd Dem Rep Unctd Dem Rep WPD Dem Rep Dem Rep
2008 132.3 131.4 0.9 52.9% 45.6% 0.7% 53.0% 45.5% (5.1) *55.4% 43.1% 57.9% 40.7%
2004 125.7 122.3 3.4 48.2% 50.7% 2.7% 49.0% 50.0% (7.4) 51.9% 47.0% 53.5% 45.2%
2000 110.8 105.4 5.4 48.4% 47.9% 4.9% 49.7% 46.8% (2.0) 49.4% 46.9% 50.4% 46.2%
1996 105.4 96.3 9.1 49.2% 40.7% 8.7% 51.5% 39.4% (1.9) 50.2% 39.8% 53.8% 36.8%
1992 113.9 104.4 9.4 43.0% 37.4% 8.3% 45.7% 36.4% (5.4) 45.7% 34.7% 51.3% 30.3%
1988 102.3 91.6 10.6 45.6% 53.3% 10.4% 48.7% 50.4% (2.4) 46.8% 52.2% 50.2% 48.7%
1988-2008
Total 690.4 651.4 38.9 48.1% 46.0% 5.6% 49.7% 44.8% (4.1) 50.1% 43.9% 53.0% 41.3%
1988-2004
Total 558.1 520.1 38.0 46.9% 46.1% 6.8% 48.9% 44.7% (3.9) 48.9% 44.1% 51.9% 41.4%
2004 2000 1996 1992
Red-shift Record ExitP Red-shift Record ExitP Red-shift Recorded ExitP Red-shift Record ExitP
WPD Swing Swing WPD Swing Swing WPD Swing Swing WPD Swing Swing
WtdAvg 7.40 0.51% 2.97% 2.01 -1.96% -2.31% 1.93 6.05% 4.62% 5.40 -3.10% -1.66%
Correlation 0.11 0.56 0.38 0.66 0.02 0.41 0.21 0.40
AL 10.0 -4.7% -2.5% 5.5 -1.6% -0.02% 2.4 2.3% 2.9% 1.2 1.0% 1.6%
AK 9.3 7.9% 12.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0
AZ 0.3 -0.3% -0.1% 0.0 7.7 10.0% 10.5% 6.6 -2.2% 1.1%
AR 1.3 -1.3% -2.3% 3.2 -7.9% -5.5% -1.5 0.5% -4.1% 7.8 11.0% 15.3%
CA 11.6 0.9% 4.8% 3.8 2.4% 1.9% 4.7 5.1% 3.2% 8.5 -1.6% 0.8%
CO 6.1 4.6% 4.9% 5.6 -2.0% 0.0% 1.5 4.3% 1.4% 7.2 -5.2% -3.1%
CT 16.0 -1.6% 6.0% 0.9 3.1% 5.6% -4.2 10.6% 4.4% 8.3 -4.7% -3.1%
DE 15.9 -1.6% 2.8% 7.1 3.1% 6.0% 1.3 8.3% 5.3% 7.3 0.0% 2.8%
DC 2.8 4.0% 5.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
FL 7.8 -1.7% 1.9% 0.6 0.8% 0.8% 0.6 9.0% 6.6% 5.5 0.5% 2.0%
GA 1.3 -1.6% -3.8% 5.6 -2.9% 1.6% -3.3 2.4% -2.5% 6.5 4.0% 8.1%
HI 8.2 -1.8% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
ID 4.0 2.6% 5.9% -2.5 -6.0% -9.0% 3.5 5.2% 6.7% 0.5 -7.6% -7.3%
IL 3.5 0.2% -1.2% 6.4 0.3% 4.1% -1.2 5.7% 2.1% 6.1 0.0% 1.7%
IN 2.2 -1.7% -2.4% 3.6 -0.5% 0.3% 2.0 4.8% 2.4% 6.8 -2.9% -4.1%
IA 3.0 0.7% 3.7% -3.0 -1.7% -3.1% -0.3 7.0% 5.8% 2.0 -11.4% -10.7%
KS 1.1 -0.6% -2.3% 4.4 1.2% 1.8% 3.2 2.3% 2.2% 3.4 -8.8% -8.9%
KY 0.4 -1.7% 0.7% -4.4 -4.5% -6.2% -1.0 1.3% -1.2% 3.9 0.7% 2.1%
LA 2.6 -2.7% -1.7% 0.6 -7.1% -3.6% -6.5 6.4% 3.7% -1.0 1.5% -0.2%
ME 4.0 4.5% 5.4% 2.1 -2.5% -3.7% 4.4 12.9% 12.5% 5.1 -5.1% -5.8%
MD 7.3 -0.7% 0.8% 4.3 2.3% 2.7% 3.6 4.5% 2.2% 8.1 1.6% 3.1%
MA 7.7 2.1% 3.8% 4.3 -1.7% -1.2% 3.3 13.9% 12.0% 7.1 -5.7% -5.5%
MI 6.4 0.0% 2.1% 2.2 -0.4% -1.1% 3.5 7.9% 7.2% 4.9 -1.9% 0.0%
MN 9.2 3.2% 8.0% -0.5 -3.2% -2.6% -1.7 7.6% 3.6% 6.4 -9.4% -5.6%
MS 18.5 -1.0% 6.7% 3.2 -3.4% -1.9% 0.3 3.3% 0.9% 5.1 1.7% 4.4%
MO 5.8 -1.0% 2.8% -1.8 -0.5% -4.3% 5.8 3.5% 2.1% 8.6 -3.8% 0.2%
MT -2.6 5.2% 5.5% -3.2 -7.9% -10.7% 2.4 3.6% 5.2% -0.7 -8.6% -11.1%
NE 8.7 -0.6% 1.7% 4.1 -1.7% -2.9% 6.5 5.6% 7.4% 2.8 -9.8% -10.9%
NV 9.9 1.9% 3.9% 6.0 2.0% 5.0% 0.0 -2.1 -0.6% -3.1%
NH 14.0 3.4% 9.2% 2.4 -2.5% -7.4% 12.2 10.4% 11.5% 10.1 2.6% 4.6%
NJ 9.1 -3.2% 1.1% 0.4 2.4% 1.7% 1.9 10.8% 6.1% 11.2 0.4% 3.9%
NM 8.0 1.1% 7.7% -5.1 -1.3% -7.3% 7.0 3.3% 3.6% 6.3 -1.0% -1.2%
NY 12.2 -1.8% 2.6% 3.3 0.7% 3.4% -2.1 9.7% 6.4% 4.6 -1.9% -3.2%
NC 11.9 0.4% 1.4% 9.8 -0.8% 0.8% 6.5 1.4% 2.5% 4.2 0.9% 2.8%
ND -1.7 2.4% 2.6% -2.0 -7.1% -9.1% 2.0 7.9% 6.8% 4.2 -10.8% -9.5%
OH 10.6 2.2% 7.0% 1.0 -0.9% -2.0% 3.1 7.2% 6.5% 4.4 -4.0% -2.6%
OK -1.2 -4.0% -2.2% -4.7 -2.0% -3.4% -2.0 6.4% 3.1% 4.7 -7.3% -2.1%
OR 1.8 4.4% 5.3% 0.0 2.4 4.7% -0.9% 13.6 -8.8% -5.7%
PA 8.4 0.3% 4.1% 0.8 1.4% 0.0% 3.6 4.0% 4.8% 2.0 -3.2% -2.6%
RI 5.3 -1.6% 0.9% 0.4 1.3% 0.9% 1.1 12.7% 8.7% 9.0 -8.6% -4.0%
SC 9.7 0.0% 3.1% 3.5 -2.9% -2.6% 2.8 4.0% 4.4% 2.0 2.3% 2.6%
SD -5.1 0.9% -2.1% 0.9 -5.5% -6.2% 2.3 5.9% 8.4% -2.8 -9.4% -11.3%
TN 1.3 -4.8% -3.0% -2.2 -0.7% -3.3% 3.0 0.9% -1.0% 6.8 5.5% 9.4%
TX 7.6 0.2% 3.8% 0.4 -5.8% -5.9% 0.6 6.8% 5.7% 2.8 -6.3% -4.5%
UT 4.3 -0.3% 2.3% -1.0 -7.0% -9.2% 3.5 8.6% 9.3% 2.2 -7.4% -6.3%
VT 15.2 8.3% 16.1% -0.4 -2.7% -5.4% 5.0 7.2% 5.4% 8.6 -1.5% -0.1%
VA 8.7 1.0% 4.4% 2.0 -0.7% -3.0% 6.5 4.6% 6.1% 3.5 1.4% 3.4%
WA 8.0 2.7% 4.8% 3.7 0.3% 1.1% 2.0 6.4% 4.7% 5.5 -6.6% -6.6%
WV -5.9 -2.4% -3.1% -4.5 -5.9% -9.5% 2.6 3.1% 2.8% 3.2 -3.8% -2.3%
WI 4.8 1.9% 5.5% -2.4 -1.0% -3.6% 2.8 7.7% 7.8% 2.5 -10.3% -7.9%
WY 7.0 1.4% 4.4% 1.0 -9.1% -10.6% 3.9 2.7% 1.7% 5.9 -3.9% -0.5%
Recorded and True (Exit Poll) Vote Swing vs. Red-shift (WPD)
(Two-party Vote Shares)
2004 2000 1996 1992
Red-shift ExitP Recorded Red-shift ExitP Recorded Red-shift ExitP Recorded Red-shift ExitP Recorded
WPD Swing Swing WPD Swing Swing WPD Swing Swing WPD Swing Swing
Total
Average 6.2 0.81% -1.04% 1.4 -6.6% -5.6% 2.3 -0.003% 1.2% 5.0 9.3% 6.8%
Correl 1.00 0.59 0.05 1.00 0.70 0.46 1.00 0.32 -0.14 1.00 0.64 0.39
Battleground
Average 6.9 2.4% -0.1% 0.8 -7.3% -5.1% 3.8 -0.1% 0.5% 5.2 9.6% 6.8%
Correl 1.00 0.72 0.45 1.00 0.76 0.50 1.00 0.40 0.03 1.00 0.49 0.09
Democratic
Average 8.9 0.8% -1.7% 3.0 -4.1% -3.3% 1.8 2.0% 3.8% 7.3 11.0% 8.3%
Correl 1.00 0.55 -0.06 1.00 0.54 0.31 1.00 0.22 -0.31 1.00 0.52 -0.03
Republican
Average 3.8 -0.3% -1.2% 0.8 -7.9% -7.5% 1.6 -1.4% -0.2% 3.4 8.0% 5.9%
Correl 1.00 0.58 0.02 1.00 0.69 0.45 1.00 0.35 -0.17 1.00 0.71 0.53
2004 Recorded and True (Exit) Vote Swing vs. Red-shift (WPD)
Battleground Democratic Republican
WPD Exit Recorded WPD Exit Recorded WPD Exit Recorded
Swing Swing Swing Swing Swing Swing
Total
Average 6.9 4.45% -0.34% 8.9 3.85% -2.52% 3.8 1.28% -3.17%
Correl 1.00 0.63 0.46 1.00 0.46 -0.11 1.00 0.49 -0.004
CO 6.1 4.88% 3.68% CA 11.6 4.76% -1.85% AL 10.0 -2.50% -10.74%
FL 7.8 1.85% -5.00% CT 16.0 5.95% -7.10% AK 9.3 12.50% 5.41%
IA 3.0 3.70% -0.98% DE 15.9 2.78% -5.46% AZ 0.3 -0.13% -4.19%
MN 9.2 8.03% 1.07% DC 2.8 5.43% 3.64% AR 1.3 -2.27% -4.32%
MO 5.8 2.82% -3.86% HI 8.2 2.32% -9.58% GA 1.3 -3.76% -4.91%
NV 9.9 3.85% 0.95% IL 3.5 -1.22% -1.67% ID 4.0 5.87% 1.41%
NH 14.0 9.24% 2.64% ME 4.0 5.44% 3.88% IN 2.2 -2.45% -5.05%
NM 8.0 7.69% -0.85% MD 7.3 0.85% -3.41% KS 1.1 -2.27% -4.58%
NC 11.9 1.43% 0.39% MA 7.7 3.83% -2.14% KY 0.4 0.71% -4.74%
OH 10.6 7.05% 1.40% MI 6.4 2.05% -1.71% LA 2.6 -1.66% -6.83%
OR 1.8 5.29% 3.71% NJ 9.1 1.15% -9.15% MS 18.5 6.70% -2.78%
PA 8.4 4.13% -1.67% NY 12.2 2.61% -6.69% MT (2.6) 5.50% 4.57%
VA 8.7 4.40% -0.16% RI 5.3 0.89% -8.32% NE 8.7 1.73% -4.22%
WV (5.9) -3.09% -6.54% VT 15.2 16.10% 10.20% ND (1.7) 2.59% 0.24%
WI 4.8 5.47% 0.16% WA 8.0 4.84% 1.60% OK (1.2) -2.25% -9.26%
SC 9.7 3.10% -1.15%
SD (5.1) -2.12% 1.27%
TN 1.3 -3.01% -10.41%
TX 7.6 3.84% -1.54%
UT 4.3 2.30% -5.05%
WY 7.0 4.38% 0.27%
TruthIsAll
Mar. 2, 2010
Exit poll naysayers claimed that the near-zero correlation between Swing (change in vote share from 2000 to 2004) and Red shift (the 2004 exit poll discrepancy) “kills the fraud argument”. But the premise was wrong since it incorrectly assumed that the recorded vote reflected the True Vote, yet there were nearly six million uncounted votes in 2000 and four million in 2004. When unadjusted state exit polls were used as a proxy for the True Vote, the correlation was strong. To use the recorded vote as the basis for claiming that the exit polls were wrong and the 2004 election was fraud-free is just one example of disinformation promoted to cast doubt on the aggregate unadjusted state exit polls - won by Kerry (52-47%).
The exit pollster initial explanation for the discrepancies was that non-response bias skewed the exit polls - the so-called reluctant Bush responder (rBr). Then came Swing vs. Red shift. Finally, False Recall was promoted to explain the impossible number of returning Bush voters implied by the Final National Exit Poll; once again, the recorded vote was used as the baseline, rather than total votes cast (i.e. uncounted votes and the True Vote were ignored).
To use a fraudulent recorded vote as the basis for calculating swing and then claim that the near-zero correlation “kills the fraud argument” is a logical fallacy. Elections can be fraudulent or fraud-free regardless of the correlation. In 2000, the exit poll discrepancy (2.0 WPD) was much lower than in 2004 (7.4WPD), yet the correlation ratios were significantly higher in 2000. The scatter graphs shown below kill the naysayer 2004 Swing/ Red shift “no slope, no fraud” canard.
The fallacy of the argument is confirmed in each of the 1992, 1996 and 2000 elections. The True Vote Swing/ Red shift correlation is much stronger than the corresponding Recorded Vote correlation (the regression line slope is much steeper). The average absolute True Vote correlation was .33 higher than the Recorded Vote.
The recorded state vote swing/red shift regression lines were flat in both 2004 (high WPD) and in 1996 (low WPD). On the contrary, in 2000 low WPD) the regression line was steep – refuting the premise.
In 2004, the average Battleground state recorded vote correlation was 0.45; it was near zero in both Democratic and Republican states. But the exit poll discrepancies (WPD) in Democratic states were higher than in Battleground states- another refutation of the premise.
1) In 2004, True Vote Swing/ Red shift correlation was 0.56. Recorded Vote correlation was 0.11. There were close to 4 million uncounted votes.
2) In 2000 the exit poll discrepancies (2.0 WPD) were much lower than in 2004 (7.4 WPD). But the 2000 Recorded vote correlation was 0.38; it was 0.11 in 2004. Nearly 6 million votes were uncounted.
3) In 1996, the WPD was a low 1.9 with a 0.02 Recorded Vote and 0.41 True Vote correlations. There were nearly 10 million uncounted votes.
4) In 1992, the WPD was a high 5.4 with a 0.21 Recorded Vote and 0.40 True Vote correlations. There were nearly 10 million uncounted votes.
In every election, the Democrats do better in the exit poll than the recorded vote. In each election for which prior election unadjusted state exit poll (WPD) data is available (1992 to 2004), correlations based on exit poll swing were significantly stronger than the corresponding recorded swing correlations. One reason is that (mostly Democratic) uncounted votes are not included in the recorded vote but are counted in the unadjusted exit polls.
The Census indicates there were nearly six million uncounted votes in 2000 and 4 million in 2004. Obviously, the recorded vote did not equal the True Vote in either election. It never does. The unadjusted 2004 aggregate state exit poll determined that Kerry was a 52-47% winner, but Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. The aggregate 7.4% WPD is the difference in margin. In 2000, the WPD indicated that Gore’s exit poll margin was 2% higher than his recorded 0.5% margin.
Unfortunately, the National Election Pool consortium has never released unadjusted precinct exit poll data. The transparent claim is the need for exit poll respondent confidentiality. Of course, they could release the data without providing personal information if they wanted to. In their 2004 report, the pollsters did provide average state exit poll WPD data for all elections since 1988. That report provided more than enough historical information to hoist the NEP, the pollsters and the naysayers on their own petard. No wonder they have not released the 2008 exit poll report.
The Swing Redshift 1992-2004 graph displays True and Recorded Vote Swing and Red shift (based on 238 state exit polls) for the 1992-2004 elections. The 0.39 True Vote Swing/Red shift correlation is significant. The near-zero 0.05 Recorded Vote Swing / Red shift correlation and flat regression is misleading due to the millions of documented uncounted votes – not to mention the millions of phantom votes switched and stuffed in cyberspace.
These graphs display for each election the State Recorded and True Vote share Swing vs. the unadjusted Exit Poll Red shift (i.e. WPD).
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculator_19922004_image001.gif
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_1992_image001.gif
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_1996_image001.gif
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_2000_image001.gif
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_2004_image001.gif
These graphs display for each election the State Recorded and True Vote share Swing vs. the unadjusted Exit Poll Red shift (i.e. WPD).
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_BG_image001.gif
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_Dem_image001.gif
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculatorFeb26_Rep_image001.gif
[code]
Note: 2008 unadjusted state exit polls have not been released. WPD is estimated.
Net Recorded 75/25% Adj Unctd Unadj Exit Poll True Vote
Cast Record Unctd Dem Rep Unctd Dem Rep WPD Dem Rep Dem Rep
2008 132.3 131.4 0.9 52.9% 45.6% 0.7% 53.0% 45.5% (5.1) *55.4% 43.1% 57.9% 40.7%
2004 125.7 122.3 3.4 48.2% 50.7% 2.7% 49.0% 50.0% (7.4) 51.9% 47.0% 53.5% 45.2%
2000 110.8 105.4 5.4 48.4% 47.9% 4.9% 49.7% 46.8% (2.0) 49.4% 46.9% 50.4% 46.2%
1996 105.4 96.3 9.1 49.2% 40.7% 8.7% 51.5% 39.4% (1.9) 50.2% 39.8% 53.8% 36.8%
1992 113.9 104.4 9.4 43.0% 37.4% 8.3% 45.7% 36.4% (5.4) 45.7% 34.7% 51.3% 30.3%
1988 102.3 91.6 10.6 45.6% 53.3% 10.4% 48.7% 50.4% (2.4) 46.8% 52.2% 50.2% 48.7%
1988-2008
Total 690.4 651.4 38.9 48.1% 46.0% 5.6% 49.7% 44.8% (4.1) 50.1% 43.9% 53.0% 41.3%
1988-2004
Total 558.1 520.1 38.0 46.9% 46.1% 6.8% 48.9% 44.7% (3.9) 48.9% 44.1% 51.9% 41.4%
2004 2000 1996 1992
Red-shift Record ExitP Red-shift Record ExitP Red-shift Recorded ExitP Red-shift Record ExitP
WPD Swing Swing WPD Swing Swing WPD Swing Swing WPD Swing Swing
WtdAvg 7.40 0.51% 2.97% 2.01 -1.96% -2.31% 1.93 6.05% 4.62% 5.40 -3.10% -1.66%
Correlation 0.11 0.56 0.38 0.66 0.02 0.41 0.21 0.40
AL 10.0 -4.7% -2.5% 5.5 -1.6% -0.02% 2.4 2.3% 2.9% 1.2 1.0% 1.6%
AK 9.3 7.9% 12.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0
AZ 0.3 -0.3% -0.1% 0.0 7.7 10.0% 10.5% 6.6 -2.2% 1.1%
AR 1.3 -1.3% -2.3% 3.2 -7.9% -5.5% -1.5 0.5% -4.1% 7.8 11.0% 15.3%
CA 11.6 0.9% 4.8% 3.8 2.4% 1.9% 4.7 5.1% 3.2% 8.5 -1.6% 0.8%
CO 6.1 4.6% 4.9% 5.6 -2.0% 0.0% 1.5 4.3% 1.4% 7.2 -5.2% -3.1%
CT 16.0 -1.6% 6.0% 0.9 3.1% 5.6% -4.2 10.6% 4.4% 8.3 -4.7% -3.1%
DE 15.9 -1.6% 2.8% 7.1 3.1% 6.0% 1.3 8.3% 5.3% 7.3 0.0% 2.8%
DC 2.8 4.0% 5.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
FL 7.8 -1.7% 1.9% 0.6 0.8% 0.8% 0.6 9.0% 6.6% 5.5 0.5% 2.0%
GA 1.3 -1.6% -3.8% 5.6 -2.9% 1.6% -3.3 2.4% -2.5% 6.5 4.0% 8.1%
HI 8.2 -1.8% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
ID 4.0 2.6% 5.9% -2.5 -6.0% -9.0% 3.5 5.2% 6.7% 0.5 -7.6% -7.3%
IL 3.5 0.2% -1.2% 6.4 0.3% 4.1% -1.2 5.7% 2.1% 6.1 0.0% 1.7%
IN 2.2 -1.7% -2.4% 3.6 -0.5% 0.3% 2.0 4.8% 2.4% 6.8 -2.9% -4.1%
IA 3.0 0.7% 3.7% -3.0 -1.7% -3.1% -0.3 7.0% 5.8% 2.0 -11.4% -10.7%
KS 1.1 -0.6% -2.3% 4.4 1.2% 1.8% 3.2 2.3% 2.2% 3.4 -8.8% -8.9%
KY 0.4 -1.7% 0.7% -4.4 -4.5% -6.2% -1.0 1.3% -1.2% 3.9 0.7% 2.1%
LA 2.6 -2.7% -1.7% 0.6 -7.1% -3.6% -6.5 6.4% 3.7% -1.0 1.5% -0.2%
ME 4.0 4.5% 5.4% 2.1 -2.5% -3.7% 4.4 12.9% 12.5% 5.1 -5.1% -5.8%
MD 7.3 -0.7% 0.8% 4.3 2.3% 2.7% 3.6 4.5% 2.2% 8.1 1.6% 3.1%
MA 7.7 2.1% 3.8% 4.3 -1.7% -1.2% 3.3 13.9% 12.0% 7.1 -5.7% -5.5%
MI 6.4 0.0% 2.1% 2.2 -0.4% -1.1% 3.5 7.9% 7.2% 4.9 -1.9% 0.0%
MN 9.2 3.2% 8.0% -0.5 -3.2% -2.6% -1.7 7.6% 3.6% 6.4 -9.4% -5.6%
MS 18.5 -1.0% 6.7% 3.2 -3.4% -1.9% 0.3 3.3% 0.9% 5.1 1.7% 4.4%
MO 5.8 -1.0% 2.8% -1.8 -0.5% -4.3% 5.8 3.5% 2.1% 8.6 -3.8% 0.2%
MT -2.6 5.2% 5.5% -3.2 -7.9% -10.7% 2.4 3.6% 5.2% -0.7 -8.6% -11.1%
NE 8.7 -0.6% 1.7% 4.1 -1.7% -2.9% 6.5 5.6% 7.4% 2.8 -9.8% -10.9%
NV 9.9 1.9% 3.9% 6.0 2.0% 5.0% 0.0 -2.1 -0.6% -3.1%
NH 14.0 3.4% 9.2% 2.4 -2.5% -7.4% 12.2 10.4% 11.5% 10.1 2.6% 4.6%
NJ 9.1 -3.2% 1.1% 0.4 2.4% 1.7% 1.9 10.8% 6.1% 11.2 0.4% 3.9%
NM 8.0 1.1% 7.7% -5.1 -1.3% -7.3% 7.0 3.3% 3.6% 6.3 -1.0% -1.2%
NY 12.2 -1.8% 2.6% 3.3 0.7% 3.4% -2.1 9.7% 6.4% 4.6 -1.9% -3.2%
NC 11.9 0.4% 1.4% 9.8 -0.8% 0.8% 6.5 1.4% 2.5% 4.2 0.9% 2.8%
ND -1.7 2.4% 2.6% -2.0 -7.1% -9.1% 2.0 7.9% 6.8% 4.2 -10.8% -9.5%
OH 10.6 2.2% 7.0% 1.0 -0.9% -2.0% 3.1 7.2% 6.5% 4.4 -4.0% -2.6%
OK -1.2 -4.0% -2.2% -4.7 -2.0% -3.4% -2.0 6.4% 3.1% 4.7 -7.3% -2.1%
OR 1.8 4.4% 5.3% 0.0 2.4 4.7% -0.9% 13.6 -8.8% -5.7%
PA 8.4 0.3% 4.1% 0.8 1.4% 0.0% 3.6 4.0% 4.8% 2.0 -3.2% -2.6%
RI 5.3 -1.6% 0.9% 0.4 1.3% 0.9% 1.1 12.7% 8.7% 9.0 -8.6% -4.0%
SC 9.7 0.0% 3.1% 3.5 -2.9% -2.6% 2.8 4.0% 4.4% 2.0 2.3% 2.6%
SD -5.1 0.9% -2.1% 0.9 -5.5% -6.2% 2.3 5.9% 8.4% -2.8 -9.4% -11.3%
TN 1.3 -4.8% -3.0% -2.2 -0.7% -3.3% 3.0 0.9% -1.0% 6.8 5.5% 9.4%
TX 7.6 0.2% 3.8% 0.4 -5.8% -5.9% 0.6 6.8% 5.7% 2.8 -6.3% -4.5%
UT 4.3 -0.3% 2.3% -1.0 -7.0% -9.2% 3.5 8.6% 9.3% 2.2 -7.4% -6.3%
VT 15.2 8.3% 16.1% -0.4 -2.7% -5.4% 5.0 7.2% 5.4% 8.6 -1.5% -0.1%
VA 8.7 1.0% 4.4% 2.0 -0.7% -3.0% 6.5 4.6% 6.1% 3.5 1.4% 3.4%
WA 8.0 2.7% 4.8% 3.7 0.3% 1.1% 2.0 6.4% 4.7% 5.5 -6.6% -6.6%
WV -5.9 -2.4% -3.1% -4.5 -5.9% -9.5% 2.6 3.1% 2.8% 3.2 -3.8% -2.3%
WI 4.8 1.9% 5.5% -2.4 -1.0% -3.6% 2.8 7.7% 7.8% 2.5 -10.3% -7.9%
WY 7.0 1.4% 4.4% 1.0 -9.1% -10.6% 3.9 2.7% 1.7% 5.9 -3.9% -0.5%
Recorded and True (Exit Poll) Vote Swing vs. Red-shift (WPD)
(Two-party Vote Shares)
2004 2000 1996 1992
Red-shift ExitP Recorded Red-shift ExitP Recorded Red-shift ExitP Recorded Red-shift ExitP Recorded
WPD Swing Swing WPD Swing Swing WPD Swing Swing WPD Swing Swing
Total
Average 6.2 0.81% -1.04% 1.4 -6.6% -5.6% 2.3 -0.003% 1.2% 5.0 9.3% 6.8%
Correl 1.00 0.59 0.05 1.00 0.70 0.46 1.00 0.32 -0.14 1.00 0.64 0.39
Battleground
Average 6.9 2.4% -0.1% 0.8 -7.3% -5.1% 3.8 -0.1% 0.5% 5.2 9.6% 6.8%
Correl 1.00 0.72 0.45 1.00 0.76 0.50 1.00 0.40 0.03 1.00 0.49 0.09
Democratic
Average 8.9 0.8% -1.7% 3.0 -4.1% -3.3% 1.8 2.0% 3.8% 7.3 11.0% 8.3%
Correl 1.00 0.55 -0.06 1.00 0.54 0.31 1.00 0.22 -0.31 1.00 0.52 -0.03
Republican
Average 3.8 -0.3% -1.2% 0.8 -7.9% -7.5% 1.6 -1.4% -0.2% 3.4 8.0% 5.9%
Correl 1.00 0.58 0.02 1.00 0.69 0.45 1.00 0.35 -0.17 1.00 0.71 0.53
2004 Recorded and True (Exit) Vote Swing vs. Red-shift (WPD)
Battleground Democratic Republican
WPD Exit Recorded WPD Exit Recorded WPD Exit Recorded
Swing Swing Swing Swing Swing Swing
Total
Average 6.9 4.45% -0.34% 8.9 3.85% -2.52% 3.8 1.28% -3.17%
Correl 1.00 0.63 0.46 1.00 0.46 -0.11 1.00 0.49 -0.004
CO 6.1 4.88% 3.68% CA 11.6 4.76% -1.85% AL 10.0 -2.50% -10.74%
FL 7.8 1.85% -5.00% CT 16.0 5.95% -7.10% AK 9.3 12.50% 5.41%
IA 3.0 3.70% -0.98% DE 15.9 2.78% -5.46% AZ 0.3 -0.13% -4.19%
MN 9.2 8.03% 1.07% DC 2.8 5.43% 3.64% AR 1.3 -2.27% -4.32%
MO 5.8 2.82% -3.86% HI 8.2 2.32% -9.58% GA 1.3 -3.76% -4.91%
NV 9.9 3.85% 0.95% IL 3.5 -1.22% -1.67% ID 4.0 5.87% 1.41%
NH 14.0 9.24% 2.64% ME 4.0 5.44% 3.88% IN 2.2 -2.45% -5.05%
NM 8.0 7.69% -0.85% MD 7.3 0.85% -3.41% KS 1.1 -2.27% -4.58%
NC 11.9 1.43% 0.39% MA 7.7 3.83% -2.14% KY 0.4 0.71% -4.74%
OH 10.6 7.05% 1.40% MI 6.4 2.05% -1.71% LA 2.6 -1.66% -6.83%
OR 1.8 5.29% 3.71% NJ 9.1 1.15% -9.15% MS 18.5 6.70% -2.78%
PA 8.4 4.13% -1.67% NY 12.2 2.61% -6.69% MT (2.6) 5.50% 4.57%
VA 8.7 4.40% -0.16% RI 5.3 0.89% -8.32% NE 8.7 1.73% -4.22%
WV (5.9) -3.09% -6.54% VT 15.2 16.10% 10.20% ND (1.7) 2.59% 0.24%
WI 4.8 5.47% 0.16% WA 8.0 4.84% 1.60% OK (1.2) -2.25% -9.26%
SC 9.7 3.10% -1.15%
SD (5.1) -2.12% 1.27%
TN 1.3 -3.01% -10.41%
TX 7.6 3.84% -1.54%
UT 4.3 2.30% -5.05%
WY 7.0 4.38% 0.27%