TruthIsAll
06-11-2009, 03:35 PM
Election Myths and Fallacies
TruthIsAll
June 11, 2009
There are many explanations of why the exit polls were wrong in 2004:
Kerry voters were more approachable than Bush voters to be interviewed.
Bush voters were reluctant to be interviewed.
Interviewers sought out Kerry voters.
Returning Gore voters misspoke and told exit pollsters that they voted for Bush in 2000.
Exit polls are not random samples.
U.S. exit polls are not designed to catch election fraud.
Early polling overstated the Kerry vote.
Women voted early.
Republicans voted late.
Gore voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry.
But none are supported by evidence.
Let's debunk some election myths and fallacies.
-All votes were counted.
But 2004 U.S. Census data indicates that 125.7 million votes were cast as opposed to the 122.3m recorded. And investigative reporter Greg Palast presented government data that documented 3 million uncounted votes (spoiled, provisional, absentee ballots)
-Rove brought in 4 million new Christian fundamentalist voters.
But according to the National Exit Poll timeline, Kerry won first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2000 by 16-23%.
-Bush’s 48% Election Day approval rating was not a factor.
But since 1976 all presidential incumbents with less than 50% approval lost re-election (Ford, Carter, Bush I) while those above 50% won (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton). And there was a near-perfect 0.87 correlation ratio between Bush’s monthly approval rating and the average national poll. The correlation was confirmed when Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll by 51-48%.
-Bush gained 9% over his 2000 vote in heavily Democratic urban locations
But it’s an Urban Legend. He lost 3% in highly Republican small towns and rural areas.
-Final pre-election polls did not match the exit polls.
But after undecided voters were allocated, pre-election state (Kerry 47.9-Bush 46.9%) and national (Kerry 47.2-Bush 46.9%) polls closely matched the national (50.8-48.2%) and state (52.0-47.0%) exit polls. The final Zogby battleground state polls showed Kerry leading in 9 critical states.
-Final pre-election polls listed on RCP showed Bush leading.
But these were likely voter (LV), not registered voter (RV) polls. RCP did not list late RV polls that showed Kerry winning. LV polls are a subset of RVs and excluded most newly registered voters and others who did not vote in 2000. In 2004 an extremely high voter turnout included 22 million first-timers and others, of whom approximately 57-62% voted for Kerry. Furthermore, the LV polls did not allocate the 3-5% who were still undecided. The majority (70-80%) of undecideds voted for the challenger Kerry.
-Bogus assumptions were used in the pre-election Election Model simulation which forecast that Kerry would win 320-337 electoral votes.
But the only input assumption was that Kerry would capture at least 60% of the undecided vote. The Election Model popular and electoral vote projections were confirmed by state and national exit poll analysis in the Interactive Election Simulation Model.
-Gore won the popular vote by 540,000.
But there were 5.5 million uncounted votes, approximately 4 million for Gore. Therefore he won the True Vote by at least 3 million.
-There is no evidence that undecided voters break for the challenger.
But historical statistics indicate that undecided voters break for the challenger 80% of the time - especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 48% average approval rating. World-class pollsters Harris and Zogby reported that late polling indicated Kerry won 60-80% of the undecided vote. Gallup allocated 90% to Kerry.
-Bush was leading in the final pre-election polls.
Not so. Kerry led Bush by less than 1% in the state-weighted average vote and held a 3% lead after allocation of undecided voters. Kerry and Bush were tied at 47% based on the final national 18-poll average.
-Non-response bias in the exit polls was the reason why 43 states red-shifted to Bush.
But 3 million votes (mostly from heavily Democratic minority districts) were never counted - and Kerry won 70-75%. Response rates were lowest in Kerry’s urban strongholds.
-There is nothing suspicious in the fact that six of the eight states which deviated to Kerry from the exit polls were strong Bush states.
But the exit poll discrepancies were all within the margin of error.
-Final exit polls are always matched to the recorded vote.
But this assumes all votes are counted. There were 5.4 million net (of stuffed ballots) uncounted votes in 2000 and 3.4 million in 2004.
-Bush won the 2pm Final NEP (13660) by 51-48%.
But the Final was forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry led the National Exit Poll by 51-48% at 4pm (8349 respondents), at 7:30pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047)
-The margin of error used to calculate probability of the discrepancy was too low.
But even assuming a 60% “cluster effect”, the probabilities were near zero. Assuming a zero cluster effect, WPE-adjusted state exit poll discrepancies exceeded the MoE in 29 states for Bush and just one for Kerry. Assuming a 30% cluster, the margin of error in was exceeded in 24 states for Bush. Composite (12:22am) exit poll discrepancies exceeded the margin of error in 16 states for Bush; none for Kerry.
-There is nothing suspicious about the fact that all 21 Eastern Time Zone states red-shifted from the exit poll in favor of Bush.
But 14 deviated beyond the margin of error with virtually ZERO probability.
-Exit polls are not true random samples.
But Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll and in the 2004 Election Report that respondents were randomly-selected and that the overall margin of error was 1%.
-Bush voters were reluctant to respond to exit pollsters.
But this was contradicted by the Final Exit Poll, which stated that Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% of the respondents, as compared to 37% for Gore voters. It was also contradicted by a linear regression analysis: non-response rates increased going from the strongest Bush states to the strongest Kerry states which suggests that non-responders were Kerry voters.
-The Final Exit Poll was correct in matching to the Bush 51-48% win.
But the 43/37 weights indicate that either Bush voters were over-polled or the Final was rigged - a classic Hobson Choice. In any case, the rBr hypothesis was debunked.
-False recall explains the Final 2004 NEP “Voted in 2000” 43/37 Bush/Gore weights.
But Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% (52.6m) of the 122.3m votes recorded in 2004; Bush only had 50.5m votes in 2000. Furthermore, approximately 2.5m Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election, so 48m was the maximum who could have voted (assuming 100% turnout) in 2004. Also... false recall is not a factor in pre-election polls. And the pre-election polls (after undecided voters were allocated) matched the exit polls.
-Bush could have achieved his recorded vote assuming feasible weights.
But using feasible weights, his vote shares had to be inflated to implausible levels to match the recorded vote. He needed:
a) 14.6% of Gore voters; the 12:22am NEP said he had 8%
b) 7.2% of Bush voters defect to Kerry; the NEP had 10%
c) Kerry won 52.9% of new voters; the NEP had 57%
Kerry won Nader voters by 64-17%.
-False recall explains the Final 2008 "Voted in 2004" 46/37 Bush/Kerry weights.
But false recall is not a factor in pre-election polls. And the pre-election polls (after undecided voters were allocated) matched the exit polls. Are we expected to believe that there were 12 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters? Also... pre-election RV polls (after undecided voters were allocated) matched the True Vote model. Unadjusted 2008 state and national exit polls have not been and apparently will never be released. Wonder why?
-Returning Gore voters misrepresented their 2000 vote because they wanted to be associated with the winner - Bush.
But Bush had 48% approval on Election Day. The majority of new voters were Democrats and Independents; they gave Bush a 25-30% approval rating. And Gore was the official “winner” in 2000 - by 540,000 votes.
-Bush had 62 million votes in 2004.
But simple arithmetic shows he needed 16 million new voters. Bush had 50.5m votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5m died (assuming 1.2% annual voter mortality) and 2m did not vote in 2004 (assuming 96% turnout). Therefore, approximately 46m Bush 2000 voters turned out to vote. Bush needed 16m new voters to get 62m. But according to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, he had just 9 million (41%) of 22m new voters.
-Obama won by 9.5 million votes.
But the 2008 Final National Exit Poll was forced to indicate a 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter mix of the 2008 electorate in order to match the recorded vote. That means there had to be 12 million (9% of 131m) more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters. In 2004, Bush won by only 3 million “official votes” (assuming zero fraud). However, if Kerry won the True Vote by 53-46% (9m) then the Final 2008 NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 7m and understated the number of returning Kerry voters by 12m. Obama won a 22 million vote landslide!
-Statistical analysis of exit polls cannot prove that the 2004 election was stolen.
But the Final 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote using an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter mix of the 2004 electorate. Since the Final was mathematically impossible, so too was the vote count that it matched to. When a feasible mix (39/39) is used, Kerry is the clear winner. That constitutes proof beyond a reasonable doubt.
-The sensitivity analysis which shows that Kerry won all plausible scenarios is inconclusive.
But given the adjusted 12:22am Composite vote shares and assuming 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout, Kerry only needed a 73% turnout of Gore voters to tie Bush. And Gore voter turnout had to be 64% in order for Bush to match his recorded vote margin. Furthermore, assuming the non-adjusted exit poll shares, the required Gore voter turnout was even lower.
-Bush’s share of females increased by 4.2%.
But his share of the male vote declined by 0.2%. Females voted 54-45% for Kerry; Blacks voted over 90% for him; he won Independents by 52-44%.
-Bush won Ohio.
But along with massive voter disenfranchisement, there is documented evidence of uncounted and switched votes. Two election workers were convicted of rigging the recount. Fifty-six of 88 county voting records were destroyed. The final Zogby poll had Kerry leading by 50-47%. Kerry led the unadjusted Ohio exit poll by 54-46% and the adjusted 12:22am Composite by 52.1-47.9%.
-Bush won Florida in 2000 by 537 votes
But only because SCOTUS stopped the recount. Gore won 70% of 180,000 uncounted underpunched/overpunched cards. If they had been counted, he would have won by at least 60,000 votes. Dan Rather's expose on voting machines proved that poor-quality paper used in Florida punch card machines was a major cause of spoilage in heavily Democratic precincts.
-Bush won Florida in 2004 by 52-47% (368,000 votes)
But the Democrats had a 41-37% registration advantage in Touch Screen (TS) counties and 42-39% in Optical Scan (OS) counties. Kerry won TS counties (3.86m votes) by 51-47% (votes were switched to Bush and Bush won OS counties (3.43mm votes) by a whopping 57-42% (votes were stuffed for Bush). The final Zogby Florida pre-election poll had Kerry leading by 50-47%. Kerry won the exit poll by 50.9-48.3%.
-The New York 2004 pre-election poll (59-40%) matched the vote; the exit poll was wrong.
But the exit poll timeline (unadjusted to GEO to Composite) indicated he won by 64-34%. Even if the exit poll was wrong, the 5% discrepancy is not significant. The margin of error for the 600-sample pre-election poll was 4%; there was a 95% probability that Kerry's vote could have been anywhere between 55-63%. Assuming a 30% cluster effect, the exit poll MoE was 3.2%; there was a 95% probability that Kerry's vote was between 60.9-67.3%. Therefore, a Kerry vote in the 60.9-63.0% range would fall within the margin of error of both pre-election and exit poll.
-The NY 2004 recorded vote was fraud-free; lever voting machines are foolproof.
But Kerry did better in NY than he did elsewhere. Kerry won NY by 63-36% using weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote (Gore 60.5-Bush 35.4-Nader 4.1), assuming his vote shares were two percent higher than in the NEP. According to the 2004 NEP, Kerry won Nader voters by 64-17%; 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry; 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. Levers are highly vulnerable to fraud and don’t produce a verifiable paper ballot. NY votes exclusively on Levers; the WPE was 11.4%. CT, another heavy Lever state, had the second highest WPE (15.7%) of all the states. NY was number four.
-Polling data was cherry-picked and assumptions set to favor Kerry.
But there were no assumptions used in three optimization models based on different exit poll data sets consisting of response rates and within precinct error (WPE). The models all produced thee same result: Kerry won by 52-47%. They confirmed the prior USCV simulation and debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) theory.
The Optimizer was applied to 1250 precincts categorized by
a) Partisanship groups: Strong Bush, Bush, Even, Kerry, Strong Kerry: Kerry 52.15-Bush 47.85%.
b) Location: Big Cities, Small Cities, Suburban, Small Towns, Rural) : 52.15-47.85%
c) State :Kerry by 52.3-47.7%
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: 52.0-47.0
National Exit Poll “Voted in 2000” demographic: 51.2-47.8%
-The Intrade voting markets are the best indicator of the election win probabilities.
But are the traders aware of election fraud? If they are, they don’t care; they are betting on the winner of the recorded vote – and not the True Vote.
Did they trade based on the latest polling information, special inside information or gut instinct? If they rely on the polls, do they calculate the expected Electoral Vote based on the probability of winning each state? Probably not.
The expected EV for a state is the state win probability times the electoral vote.
The total expected EV is the sum of the products: EV = å P (i) * EV (i), i=1,51.
Do the traders run a Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 election trials based on thelatest state win probabilities? Probabably not.
The number of winning trials divided by 5000 is the probability of winning the election.
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2004
Final NEP – forced to match the recorded vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2004 Cast Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout/Alive
DNV - - - - 20.79 17.0% 54% 44% 2% -
Gore 55.06 51.00 48.45 47.48 45.25 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 93.4%
Bush 51.76 50.46 47.93 46.97 52.59 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 109.7%
Other 4.01 3.96 3.76 3.69 3.67 3.0% 64% 14% 22% 97.5%
Total 110.83 105.42 100.15 98.14 122.30 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% -2.46%
Total 59.03 62.04 1.22 -3.01
Gore 49.68% 48.38% Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% -2.46%
Bush 46.70% 47.86% 122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23 -3.01
True Vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2004 True Vote 12:22am NEP Vote shares
2000 2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout/Alive
True DNV - - - - 22.56 15.6% 57% 41% 2% -
49.53% Gore 54.89 51.00 52.14 51.10 51.10 41.8% 91% 8% 1% 98.0%
46.71% Bush 51.77 50.46 49.18 48.20 48.20 39.4% 10% 90% 0% 98.0%
3.76% Other 4.17 3.96 3.96 3.88 3.88 3.2% 64% 17% 19% 98.0%
Total 110.83 105.42 105.28 103.18 125.74 100% 52.91% 45.76% 1.33% 7.15%
Total 66.53 57.54 1.68 8.99
Gore 49.53% 48.38% Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% -2.46%
Bush 46.71% 47.86% 122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23 -3.01
Sensitivity Analysis
Bush Kerry Share
Turnout Gore Turnout
52.9% 64% 73% 80% 96% 98%
90% 49.5% 50.8% 51.8% 54.1% 54.4%
92% 49.1% 50.4% 51.4% 53.8% 54.0%
94% 48.7% 50.0% 51.1% 53.4% 53.7%
96% 48.4% 49.7% 50.7% 53.0% 53.3%
98% 48.0% 49.3% 50.3% 52.6% 52.9%
Bush Kerry Margin
Turnout Gore Turnout
9.0 64% 73% 80% 96% 98%
90% 0.7 3.9 6.4 12.2 12.9
92% (0.3) 2.9 5.4 11.2 11.9
94% (1.3) 1.9 4.5 10.2 10.9
96% (2.3) 1.0 3.5 9.2 10.0
98% (3.2) 0.0 2.5 8.3 9.0
2008
Final NEP – forced to match the recorded vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2008 Cast Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2004 2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Turnout/Alive
Recorded DNV - - - - 17.08 13.0% 73% 27% 0% -
48.27% Kerry 61.61 59.03 56.08 54.39 48.61 37.0% 89% 9% 2% 86.7%
50.73% Bush 62.89 62.04 58.94 57.17 60.43 46.0% 17% 82% 1% 102.5%
1.00% Other 1.24 1.23 1.17 1.13 5.25 4.0% 66% 26% 8% 450.8%
Total 125.74 122.30 116.18 112.70 131.37 100% 52.88% 45.60% 1.52% 7.28%
Total 69.47 59.90 2.00 9.56
Kerry 49.00% 48.27% Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50% 7.25%
Bush 50.02% 50.73% 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97 9.52
True Vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2008 Cast Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2004 2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Turnout/Alive
True DNV - - - - 16.44 11.8% 73% 27% 0% -
52.91% Kerry 66.53 59.03 63.20 61.30 61.30 46.7% 89% 9% 2% 97.0%
45.76% Bush 57.54 62.04 54.66 53.02 53.02 40.4% 17% 82% 1% 97.0%
1.33% Other 1.68 1.23 1.59 1.55 1.55 1.2% 66% 26% 8% 97.0%
Total 125.74 122.30 119.45 115.87 132.31 100% 57.78% 40.79% 1.43% 17.00%
Total 76.45 53.97 1.89 22.49
Kerry 52.91% 48.27% Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50% 7.25%
Bush 45.76% 50.73% 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97 9.52
TruthIsAll
June 11, 2009
There are many explanations of why the exit polls were wrong in 2004:
Kerry voters were more approachable than Bush voters to be interviewed.
Bush voters were reluctant to be interviewed.
Interviewers sought out Kerry voters.
Returning Gore voters misspoke and told exit pollsters that they voted for Bush in 2000.
Exit polls are not random samples.
U.S. exit polls are not designed to catch election fraud.
Early polling overstated the Kerry vote.
Women voted early.
Republicans voted late.
Gore voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry.
But none are supported by evidence.
Let's debunk some election myths and fallacies.
-All votes were counted.
But 2004 U.S. Census data indicates that 125.7 million votes were cast as opposed to the 122.3m recorded. And investigative reporter Greg Palast presented government data that documented 3 million uncounted votes (spoiled, provisional, absentee ballots)
-Rove brought in 4 million new Christian fundamentalist voters.
But according to the National Exit Poll timeline, Kerry won first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2000 by 16-23%.
-Bush’s 48% Election Day approval rating was not a factor.
But since 1976 all presidential incumbents with less than 50% approval lost re-election (Ford, Carter, Bush I) while those above 50% won (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton). And there was a near-perfect 0.87 correlation ratio between Bush’s monthly approval rating and the average national poll. The correlation was confirmed when Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll by 51-48%.
-Bush gained 9% over his 2000 vote in heavily Democratic urban locations
But it’s an Urban Legend. He lost 3% in highly Republican small towns and rural areas.
-Final pre-election polls did not match the exit polls.
But after undecided voters were allocated, pre-election state (Kerry 47.9-Bush 46.9%) and national (Kerry 47.2-Bush 46.9%) polls closely matched the national (50.8-48.2%) and state (52.0-47.0%) exit polls. The final Zogby battleground state polls showed Kerry leading in 9 critical states.
-Final pre-election polls listed on RCP showed Bush leading.
But these were likely voter (LV), not registered voter (RV) polls. RCP did not list late RV polls that showed Kerry winning. LV polls are a subset of RVs and excluded most newly registered voters and others who did not vote in 2000. In 2004 an extremely high voter turnout included 22 million first-timers and others, of whom approximately 57-62% voted for Kerry. Furthermore, the LV polls did not allocate the 3-5% who were still undecided. The majority (70-80%) of undecideds voted for the challenger Kerry.
-Bogus assumptions were used in the pre-election Election Model simulation which forecast that Kerry would win 320-337 electoral votes.
But the only input assumption was that Kerry would capture at least 60% of the undecided vote. The Election Model popular and electoral vote projections were confirmed by state and national exit poll analysis in the Interactive Election Simulation Model.
-Gore won the popular vote by 540,000.
But there were 5.5 million uncounted votes, approximately 4 million for Gore. Therefore he won the True Vote by at least 3 million.
-There is no evidence that undecided voters break for the challenger.
But historical statistics indicate that undecided voters break for the challenger 80% of the time - especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 48% average approval rating. World-class pollsters Harris and Zogby reported that late polling indicated Kerry won 60-80% of the undecided vote. Gallup allocated 90% to Kerry.
-Bush was leading in the final pre-election polls.
Not so. Kerry led Bush by less than 1% in the state-weighted average vote and held a 3% lead after allocation of undecided voters. Kerry and Bush were tied at 47% based on the final national 18-poll average.
-Non-response bias in the exit polls was the reason why 43 states red-shifted to Bush.
But 3 million votes (mostly from heavily Democratic minority districts) were never counted - and Kerry won 70-75%. Response rates were lowest in Kerry’s urban strongholds.
-There is nothing suspicious in the fact that six of the eight states which deviated to Kerry from the exit polls were strong Bush states.
But the exit poll discrepancies were all within the margin of error.
-Final exit polls are always matched to the recorded vote.
But this assumes all votes are counted. There were 5.4 million net (of stuffed ballots) uncounted votes in 2000 and 3.4 million in 2004.
-Bush won the 2pm Final NEP (13660) by 51-48%.
But the Final was forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry led the National Exit Poll by 51-48% at 4pm (8349 respondents), at 7:30pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047)
-The margin of error used to calculate probability of the discrepancy was too low.
But even assuming a 60% “cluster effect”, the probabilities were near zero. Assuming a zero cluster effect, WPE-adjusted state exit poll discrepancies exceeded the MoE in 29 states for Bush and just one for Kerry. Assuming a 30% cluster, the margin of error in was exceeded in 24 states for Bush. Composite (12:22am) exit poll discrepancies exceeded the margin of error in 16 states for Bush; none for Kerry.
-There is nothing suspicious about the fact that all 21 Eastern Time Zone states red-shifted from the exit poll in favor of Bush.
But 14 deviated beyond the margin of error with virtually ZERO probability.
-Exit polls are not true random samples.
But Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll and in the 2004 Election Report that respondents were randomly-selected and that the overall margin of error was 1%.
-Bush voters were reluctant to respond to exit pollsters.
But this was contradicted by the Final Exit Poll, which stated that Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% of the respondents, as compared to 37% for Gore voters. It was also contradicted by a linear regression analysis: non-response rates increased going from the strongest Bush states to the strongest Kerry states which suggests that non-responders were Kerry voters.
-The Final Exit Poll was correct in matching to the Bush 51-48% win.
But the 43/37 weights indicate that either Bush voters were over-polled or the Final was rigged - a classic Hobson Choice. In any case, the rBr hypothesis was debunked.
-False recall explains the Final 2004 NEP “Voted in 2000” 43/37 Bush/Gore weights.
But Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% (52.6m) of the 122.3m votes recorded in 2004; Bush only had 50.5m votes in 2000. Furthermore, approximately 2.5m Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election, so 48m was the maximum who could have voted (assuming 100% turnout) in 2004. Also... false recall is not a factor in pre-election polls. And the pre-election polls (after undecided voters were allocated) matched the exit polls.
-Bush could have achieved his recorded vote assuming feasible weights.
But using feasible weights, his vote shares had to be inflated to implausible levels to match the recorded vote. He needed:
a) 14.6% of Gore voters; the 12:22am NEP said he had 8%
b) 7.2% of Bush voters defect to Kerry; the NEP had 10%
c) Kerry won 52.9% of new voters; the NEP had 57%
Kerry won Nader voters by 64-17%.
-False recall explains the Final 2008 "Voted in 2004" 46/37 Bush/Kerry weights.
But false recall is not a factor in pre-election polls. And the pre-election polls (after undecided voters were allocated) matched the exit polls. Are we expected to believe that there were 12 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters? Also... pre-election RV polls (after undecided voters were allocated) matched the True Vote model. Unadjusted 2008 state and national exit polls have not been and apparently will never be released. Wonder why?
-Returning Gore voters misrepresented their 2000 vote because they wanted to be associated with the winner - Bush.
But Bush had 48% approval on Election Day. The majority of new voters were Democrats and Independents; they gave Bush a 25-30% approval rating. And Gore was the official “winner” in 2000 - by 540,000 votes.
-Bush had 62 million votes in 2004.
But simple arithmetic shows he needed 16 million new voters. Bush had 50.5m votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5m died (assuming 1.2% annual voter mortality) and 2m did not vote in 2004 (assuming 96% turnout). Therefore, approximately 46m Bush 2000 voters turned out to vote. Bush needed 16m new voters to get 62m. But according to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, he had just 9 million (41%) of 22m new voters.
-Obama won by 9.5 million votes.
But the 2008 Final National Exit Poll was forced to indicate a 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter mix of the 2008 electorate in order to match the recorded vote. That means there had to be 12 million (9% of 131m) more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters. In 2004, Bush won by only 3 million “official votes” (assuming zero fraud). However, if Kerry won the True Vote by 53-46% (9m) then the Final 2008 NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 7m and understated the number of returning Kerry voters by 12m. Obama won a 22 million vote landslide!
-Statistical analysis of exit polls cannot prove that the 2004 election was stolen.
But the Final 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote using an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter mix of the 2004 electorate. Since the Final was mathematically impossible, so too was the vote count that it matched to. When a feasible mix (39/39) is used, Kerry is the clear winner. That constitutes proof beyond a reasonable doubt.
-The sensitivity analysis which shows that Kerry won all plausible scenarios is inconclusive.
But given the adjusted 12:22am Composite vote shares and assuming 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout, Kerry only needed a 73% turnout of Gore voters to tie Bush. And Gore voter turnout had to be 64% in order for Bush to match his recorded vote margin. Furthermore, assuming the non-adjusted exit poll shares, the required Gore voter turnout was even lower.
-Bush’s share of females increased by 4.2%.
But his share of the male vote declined by 0.2%. Females voted 54-45% for Kerry; Blacks voted over 90% for him; he won Independents by 52-44%.
-Bush won Ohio.
But along with massive voter disenfranchisement, there is documented evidence of uncounted and switched votes. Two election workers were convicted of rigging the recount. Fifty-six of 88 county voting records were destroyed. The final Zogby poll had Kerry leading by 50-47%. Kerry led the unadjusted Ohio exit poll by 54-46% and the adjusted 12:22am Composite by 52.1-47.9%.
-Bush won Florida in 2000 by 537 votes
But only because SCOTUS stopped the recount. Gore won 70% of 180,000 uncounted underpunched/overpunched cards. If they had been counted, he would have won by at least 60,000 votes. Dan Rather's expose on voting machines proved that poor-quality paper used in Florida punch card machines was a major cause of spoilage in heavily Democratic precincts.
-Bush won Florida in 2004 by 52-47% (368,000 votes)
But the Democrats had a 41-37% registration advantage in Touch Screen (TS) counties and 42-39% in Optical Scan (OS) counties. Kerry won TS counties (3.86m votes) by 51-47% (votes were switched to Bush and Bush won OS counties (3.43mm votes) by a whopping 57-42% (votes were stuffed for Bush). The final Zogby Florida pre-election poll had Kerry leading by 50-47%. Kerry won the exit poll by 50.9-48.3%.
-The New York 2004 pre-election poll (59-40%) matched the vote; the exit poll was wrong.
But the exit poll timeline (unadjusted to GEO to Composite) indicated he won by 64-34%. Even if the exit poll was wrong, the 5% discrepancy is not significant. The margin of error for the 600-sample pre-election poll was 4%; there was a 95% probability that Kerry's vote could have been anywhere between 55-63%. Assuming a 30% cluster effect, the exit poll MoE was 3.2%; there was a 95% probability that Kerry's vote was between 60.9-67.3%. Therefore, a Kerry vote in the 60.9-63.0% range would fall within the margin of error of both pre-election and exit poll.
-The NY 2004 recorded vote was fraud-free; lever voting machines are foolproof.
But Kerry did better in NY than he did elsewhere. Kerry won NY by 63-36% using weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote (Gore 60.5-Bush 35.4-Nader 4.1), assuming his vote shares were two percent higher than in the NEP. According to the 2004 NEP, Kerry won Nader voters by 64-17%; 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry; 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. Levers are highly vulnerable to fraud and don’t produce a verifiable paper ballot. NY votes exclusively on Levers; the WPE was 11.4%. CT, another heavy Lever state, had the second highest WPE (15.7%) of all the states. NY was number four.
-Polling data was cherry-picked and assumptions set to favor Kerry.
But there were no assumptions used in three optimization models based on different exit poll data sets consisting of response rates and within precinct error (WPE). The models all produced thee same result: Kerry won by 52-47%. They confirmed the prior USCV simulation and debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) theory.
The Optimizer was applied to 1250 precincts categorized by
a) Partisanship groups: Strong Bush, Bush, Even, Kerry, Strong Kerry: Kerry 52.15-Bush 47.85%.
b) Location: Big Cities, Small Cities, Suburban, Small Towns, Rural) : 52.15-47.85%
c) State :Kerry by 52.3-47.7%
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: 52.0-47.0
National Exit Poll “Voted in 2000” demographic: 51.2-47.8%
-The Intrade voting markets are the best indicator of the election win probabilities.
But are the traders aware of election fraud? If they are, they don’t care; they are betting on the winner of the recorded vote – and not the True Vote.
Did they trade based on the latest polling information, special inside information or gut instinct? If they rely on the polls, do they calculate the expected Electoral Vote based on the probability of winning each state? Probably not.
The expected EV for a state is the state win probability times the electoral vote.
The total expected EV is the sum of the products: EV = å P (i) * EV (i), i=1,51.
Do the traders run a Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 election trials based on thelatest state win probabilities? Probabably not.
The number of winning trials divided by 5000 is the probability of winning the election.
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2004
Final NEP – forced to match the recorded vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2004 Cast Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout/Alive
DNV - - - - 20.79 17.0% 54% 44% 2% -
Gore 55.06 51.00 48.45 47.48 45.25 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 93.4%
Bush 51.76 50.46 47.93 46.97 52.59 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 109.7%
Other 4.01 3.96 3.76 3.69 3.67 3.0% 64% 14% 22% 97.5%
Total 110.83 105.42 100.15 98.14 122.30 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% -2.46%
Total 59.03 62.04 1.22 -3.01
Gore 49.68% 48.38% Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% -2.46%
Bush 46.70% 47.86% 122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23 -3.01
True Vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2004 True Vote 12:22am NEP Vote shares
2000 2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout/Alive
True DNV - - - - 22.56 15.6% 57% 41% 2% -
49.53% Gore 54.89 51.00 52.14 51.10 51.10 41.8% 91% 8% 1% 98.0%
46.71% Bush 51.77 50.46 49.18 48.20 48.20 39.4% 10% 90% 0% 98.0%
3.76% Other 4.17 3.96 3.96 3.88 3.88 3.2% 64% 17% 19% 98.0%
Total 110.83 105.42 105.28 103.18 125.74 100% 52.91% 45.76% 1.33% 7.15%
Total 66.53 57.54 1.68 8.99
Gore 49.53% 48.38% Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% -2.46%
Bush 46.71% 47.86% 122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23 -3.01
Sensitivity Analysis
Bush Kerry Share
Turnout Gore Turnout
52.9% 64% 73% 80% 96% 98%
90% 49.5% 50.8% 51.8% 54.1% 54.4%
92% 49.1% 50.4% 51.4% 53.8% 54.0%
94% 48.7% 50.0% 51.1% 53.4% 53.7%
96% 48.4% 49.7% 50.7% 53.0% 53.3%
98% 48.0% 49.3% 50.3% 52.6% 52.9%
Bush Kerry Margin
Turnout Gore Turnout
9.0 64% 73% 80% 96% 98%
90% 0.7 3.9 6.4 12.2 12.9
92% (0.3) 2.9 5.4 11.2 11.9
94% (1.3) 1.9 4.5 10.2 10.9
96% (2.3) 1.0 3.5 9.2 10.0
98% (3.2) 0.0 2.5 8.3 9.0
2008
Final NEP – forced to match the recorded vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2008 Cast Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2004 2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Turnout/Alive
Recorded DNV - - - - 17.08 13.0% 73% 27% 0% -
48.27% Kerry 61.61 59.03 56.08 54.39 48.61 37.0% 89% 9% 2% 86.7%
50.73% Bush 62.89 62.04 58.94 57.17 60.43 46.0% 17% 82% 1% 102.5%
1.00% Other 1.24 1.23 1.17 1.13 5.25 4.0% 66% 26% 8% 450.8%
Total 125.74 122.30 116.18 112.70 131.37 100% 52.88% 45.60% 1.52% 7.28%
Total 69.47 59.90 2.00 9.56
Kerry 49.00% 48.27% Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50% 7.25%
Bush 50.02% 50.73% 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97 9.52
True Vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2008 Cast Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2004 2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Turnout/Alive
True DNV - - - - 16.44 11.8% 73% 27% 0% -
52.91% Kerry 66.53 59.03 63.20 61.30 61.30 46.7% 89% 9% 2% 97.0%
45.76% Bush 57.54 62.04 54.66 53.02 53.02 40.4% 17% 82% 1% 97.0%
1.33% Other 1.68 1.23 1.59 1.55 1.55 1.2% 66% 26% 8% 97.0%
Total 125.74 122.30 119.45 115.87 132.31 100% 57.78% 40.79% 1.43% 17.00%
Total 76.45 53.97 1.89 22.49
Kerry 52.91% 48.27% Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50% 7.25%
Bush 45.76% 50.73% 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97 9.52