TruthIsAll
11-14-2008, 12:29 PM
The Impossible National Exit Poll Returning Voter Mix confirms 2004 and 2008 Election Fraud
TruthIsAll
Mar. 31, 2009
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionCalculator2008VoteMatch.htm
Obama won the recorded vote by 69.46-59.34m, a 52.87-45.6% vote share. The 2008 National Exit Poll, which is always forced to match the recorded vote, indicates a 52.62-45.52% split.
But the Final NEP returning Bush/Kerry (46/37) voter mix is mathematically impossible - as was the 2004 Final Bush/Gore (43/37). Both required 6-7m more returning Bush voters than were living in order to match the recorded vote.
The 2008 return voter mix anomaly is further confirmation that Kerry won in 2004. An implausible low Kerry voter turnout and impossible high Bush voter turnout in 2008 was required to match the recorded vote. Obama’s True Vote far exceeded the recorded vote, just at it did for Kerry and Gore. In order to match the recorded vote, the 2008 Final NEP implies that Bush must won by 52.9-42.5%, but he won the recorded vote (who still believes it?) by 62-59m (50.7-48.3%).
Because the Final 2008 NEP returning voter mix is impossible, the Election Calculator model assumed two feasible returning 2004 voter scenarios in order to match the 2008 recorded vote. Scenario I assumed a fraud-free 2004 recorded vote. Scenario II assumed the election was stolen; Kerry won by 52-47% (the unadjusted exit poll result). To match the 2008 recorded vote, both scenarios required vote shares that differed sharply from the Final NEP.
Final Obama/McCain shares of returning and new voters were assumed in order to calculate the True Vote for both scenarios. The preliminary NEP HAS NOT BEEN AND MAY NEVER BE released. There is no doubt that Obama's vote shares were HIGHER in the preliminary. It is ALWAYS the case, since the objective is ALWAYS to MATCH the recorded vote. This ALWAYS requires reducing Democratic vote shares for the Final.
Therefore, Obama must have done BETTER than the calculated True Vote indicates. He must have won by MORE THAN 22 MILLION VOTES.
We assume two scenarios for returning 2004 voters:
1) The 2004 vote was fraud-free (the recorded vote was the True vote).
2) The 2004 election was stolen (the unadjusted exit poll was the True vote).
For both scenarios, we consider three cases:
A) Turnout is calculated based on the NEP voter mix.
B) Turnout is 95% for returning Kerry, Bush and Other voters.
C) Obama’s 2008 NEP vote shares are reduced to match the recorded vote.
The only assumptions are:
1) 1.20% annual voter mortality rate (4.8% over 4 years)
2) All votes cast were counted in 2004 and 2008.
According to the 2004 US Census, there were 3.45m more votes were cast than recorded. An estimated 75% were Kerry votes, but to be conservative and simplify the analysis, no uncounted votes were assumed in 2004 or 2008.
In Scenario 1A, Bush voter turnout is an impossible 102% assuming the NEP returning voter mix; Kerry turnout is an implausible 86%.
In Scenario 2A, Bush voter turnout is an impossible 110% assuming the NEP returning voter mix; Kerry turnout is an implausible 80%.
In Scenario 1B, Obama’s vote share is 2.34% higher than the recorded 52.87%; his vote margin is 7m higher than the recorded 9m.
In Scenario 2B, Obama’s vote share is 4.60% higher than the recorded 52.87%; his vote margin is 13m higher than the recorded 9m.
In Scenario 1C, Obama’s vote shares have to be reduced sharply from the 2008 NEP to match the recorded vote (67,88,14,66)
In Scenario 2C, Obama’s vote shares have to be reduced sharply from the 2008 NEP to match the recorded vote (60,86,13,66)
Scenario 1: 2004 Recorded Vote is the True Vote (no fraud)
1A National Exit Poll
2008 NEP
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
in 2008 DNV 17.08 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
86% Kerry 56.20 48.61 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.26 4.37 0.97
102% Bush 59.06 60.43 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
451% Other 1.16 5.25 4% 66% 24% 100% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 116.43 131.37 100% 52.62% 45.52% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
1B True Vote Recorded
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
in 2008 DNV 20.76 15.8% 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 56.20 53.39 40.6% 89% 9% 2% 47.52 4.81 1.07
95% Bush 59.06 56.11 42.7% 17% 82% 1% 9.54 46.01 0.56
95% Other 1.16 1.11 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 116.43 131.37 100% 55.21% 43.15% 1.64% 72.53 56.69 2.15
Recorded 131.37 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69.457 59.935 1.978
Diff 2.34% -2.47% 0.13% 3.07 -3.25 0.18
1C- Vote shares required to match the 2008 recorded vote assuming the 2004 recorded vote
1C True Vote Recorded
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.76 15.8% 67% 31% 2% 13.91 6.44 0.42
95% Kerry 56.20 53.39 40.6% 88% 10% 2% 46.98 5.34 1.07
95% Bush 59.06 56.11 42.7% 14% 85% 1% 7.86 47.69 0.56
95% Other 1.16 1.11 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 116.43 131.37 100% 52.89% 45.47% 1.64% 69.48 59.74 2.15
Recorded 131.37 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69.457 59.935 1.978
Diff 0.02% -0.15% 0.13% 0.02 -0.20 0.18
Scenario 2: 2004 Adjusted Exit Poll is the True Vote (election stolen)
2A 2004 Adjusted Exit Poll NEP
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
in 2008 DNV 17.08 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
80% Kerry 60.54 48.61 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.26 4.37 0.97
110% Bush 54.72 60.43 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
451% Other 1.16 5.25 4% 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 116.43 131.37 100% 52.62% 45.5% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
2B True Vote Exit Poll
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
in 2008 DNV 20.76 15.8% 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 60.54 57.52 43.8% 89% 9% 2% 51.19 5.18 1.15
95% Bush 54.72 51.99 39.6% 17% 82% 1% 8.84 42.63 0.52
95% Other 1.16 1.11 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 116.43 131.37 100% 57.47% 40.86% 1.67% 75.50 53.68 2.20
Recorded 131.37 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69.457 59.935 1.978
Diff 4.60% -4.76% 0.17% 6.04 -6.26 0.22
2C - Vote shares required to match the 2008 recorded vote assuming the 2004 exit poll
True Vote Exit Poll
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.76 15.8% 60% 38% 2% 12.46 7.89 0.42
95% Kerry 60.54 57.52 43.8% 86% 12% 2% 49.46 6.90 1.15
95% Bush 54.72 51.99 39.6% 13% 86% 1% 6.76 44.71 0.52
95% Other 1.16 1.11 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 116.43 131.37 100% 52.83% 45.49% 1.67% 69.41 59.76 2.20
Recorded 131.37 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69.457 59.935 1.978
Diff -0.04% -0.13% 0.17% -0.05 -0.17 0.22
3. 2004 True Vote assuming recorded 2000 vote and preliminary 2004 NEP vote shares
2000 Recorded Vote 2004 Calculated Vote
Voted Recd Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV 25.62 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.00 4.04 55.04 2.72 52.32 95% 49.70 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 50.46 1.08 51.53 2.48 49.06 95% 46.60 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.96 0.27 4.23 0.21 4.02 95% 3.82 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 105.42 5.38 110.80 5.41 105.39 100.13 125.74 100% 53.23% 45.39% 1.38%
125.74 66.94 57.07 1.74
TruthIsAll
Mar. 31, 2009
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionCalculator2008VoteMatch.htm
Obama won the recorded vote by 69.46-59.34m, a 52.87-45.6% vote share. The 2008 National Exit Poll, which is always forced to match the recorded vote, indicates a 52.62-45.52% split.
But the Final NEP returning Bush/Kerry (46/37) voter mix is mathematically impossible - as was the 2004 Final Bush/Gore (43/37). Both required 6-7m more returning Bush voters than were living in order to match the recorded vote.
The 2008 return voter mix anomaly is further confirmation that Kerry won in 2004. An implausible low Kerry voter turnout and impossible high Bush voter turnout in 2008 was required to match the recorded vote. Obama’s True Vote far exceeded the recorded vote, just at it did for Kerry and Gore. In order to match the recorded vote, the 2008 Final NEP implies that Bush must won by 52.9-42.5%, but he won the recorded vote (who still believes it?) by 62-59m (50.7-48.3%).
Because the Final 2008 NEP returning voter mix is impossible, the Election Calculator model assumed two feasible returning 2004 voter scenarios in order to match the 2008 recorded vote. Scenario I assumed a fraud-free 2004 recorded vote. Scenario II assumed the election was stolen; Kerry won by 52-47% (the unadjusted exit poll result). To match the 2008 recorded vote, both scenarios required vote shares that differed sharply from the Final NEP.
Final Obama/McCain shares of returning and new voters were assumed in order to calculate the True Vote for both scenarios. The preliminary NEP HAS NOT BEEN AND MAY NEVER BE released. There is no doubt that Obama's vote shares were HIGHER in the preliminary. It is ALWAYS the case, since the objective is ALWAYS to MATCH the recorded vote. This ALWAYS requires reducing Democratic vote shares for the Final.
Therefore, Obama must have done BETTER than the calculated True Vote indicates. He must have won by MORE THAN 22 MILLION VOTES.
We assume two scenarios for returning 2004 voters:
1) The 2004 vote was fraud-free (the recorded vote was the True vote).
2) The 2004 election was stolen (the unadjusted exit poll was the True vote).
For both scenarios, we consider three cases:
A) Turnout is calculated based on the NEP voter mix.
B) Turnout is 95% for returning Kerry, Bush and Other voters.
C) Obama’s 2008 NEP vote shares are reduced to match the recorded vote.
The only assumptions are:
1) 1.20% annual voter mortality rate (4.8% over 4 years)
2) All votes cast were counted in 2004 and 2008.
According to the 2004 US Census, there were 3.45m more votes were cast than recorded. An estimated 75% were Kerry votes, but to be conservative and simplify the analysis, no uncounted votes were assumed in 2004 or 2008.
In Scenario 1A, Bush voter turnout is an impossible 102% assuming the NEP returning voter mix; Kerry turnout is an implausible 86%.
In Scenario 2A, Bush voter turnout is an impossible 110% assuming the NEP returning voter mix; Kerry turnout is an implausible 80%.
In Scenario 1B, Obama’s vote share is 2.34% higher than the recorded 52.87%; his vote margin is 7m higher than the recorded 9m.
In Scenario 2B, Obama’s vote share is 4.60% higher than the recorded 52.87%; his vote margin is 13m higher than the recorded 9m.
In Scenario 1C, Obama’s vote shares have to be reduced sharply from the 2008 NEP to match the recorded vote (67,88,14,66)
In Scenario 2C, Obama’s vote shares have to be reduced sharply from the 2008 NEP to match the recorded vote (60,86,13,66)
Scenario 1: 2004 Recorded Vote is the True Vote (no fraud)
1A National Exit Poll
2008 NEP
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
in 2008 DNV 17.08 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
86% Kerry 56.20 48.61 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.26 4.37 0.97
102% Bush 59.06 60.43 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
451% Other 1.16 5.25 4% 66% 24% 100% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 116.43 131.37 100% 52.62% 45.52% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
1B True Vote Recorded
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
in 2008 DNV 20.76 15.8% 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 56.20 53.39 40.6% 89% 9% 2% 47.52 4.81 1.07
95% Bush 59.06 56.11 42.7% 17% 82% 1% 9.54 46.01 0.56
95% Other 1.16 1.11 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 116.43 131.37 100% 55.21% 43.15% 1.64% 72.53 56.69 2.15
Recorded 131.37 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69.457 59.935 1.978
Diff 2.34% -2.47% 0.13% 3.07 -3.25 0.18
1C- Vote shares required to match the 2008 recorded vote assuming the 2004 recorded vote
1C True Vote Recorded
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.76 15.8% 67% 31% 2% 13.91 6.44 0.42
95% Kerry 56.20 53.39 40.6% 88% 10% 2% 46.98 5.34 1.07
95% Bush 59.06 56.11 42.7% 14% 85% 1% 7.86 47.69 0.56
95% Other 1.16 1.11 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 116.43 131.37 100% 52.89% 45.47% 1.64% 69.48 59.74 2.15
Recorded 131.37 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69.457 59.935 1.978
Diff 0.02% -0.15% 0.13% 0.02 -0.20 0.18
Scenario 2: 2004 Adjusted Exit Poll is the True Vote (election stolen)
2A 2004 Adjusted Exit Poll NEP
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
in 2008 DNV 17.08 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
80% Kerry 60.54 48.61 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.26 4.37 0.97
110% Bush 54.72 60.43 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
451% Other 1.16 5.25 4% 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 116.43 131.37 100% 52.62% 45.5% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
2B True Vote Exit Poll
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
in 2008 DNV 20.76 15.8% 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 60.54 57.52 43.8% 89% 9% 2% 51.19 5.18 1.15
95% Bush 54.72 51.99 39.6% 17% 82% 1% 8.84 42.63 0.52
95% Other 1.16 1.11 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 116.43 131.37 100% 57.47% 40.86% 1.67% 75.50 53.68 2.20
Recorded 131.37 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69.457 59.935 1.978
Diff 4.60% -4.76% 0.17% 6.04 -6.26 0.22
2C - Vote shares required to match the 2008 recorded vote assuming the 2004 exit poll
True Vote Exit Poll
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.76 15.8% 60% 38% 2% 12.46 7.89 0.42
95% Kerry 60.54 57.52 43.8% 86% 12% 2% 49.46 6.90 1.15
95% Bush 54.72 51.99 39.6% 13% 86% 1% 6.76 44.71 0.52
95% Other 1.16 1.11 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 116.43 131.37 100% 52.83% 45.49% 1.67% 69.41 59.76 2.20
Recorded 131.37 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69.457 59.935 1.978
Diff -0.04% -0.13% 0.17% -0.05 -0.17 0.22
3. 2004 True Vote assuming recorded 2000 vote and preliminary 2004 NEP vote shares
2000 Recorded Vote 2004 Calculated Vote
Voted Recd Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV 25.62 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.00 4.04 55.04 2.72 52.32 95% 49.70 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 50.46 1.08 51.53 2.48 49.06 95% 46.60 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.96 0.27 4.23 0.21 4.02 95% 3.82 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 105.42 5.38 110.80 5.41 105.39 100.13 125.74 100% 53.23% 45.39% 1.38%
125.74 66.94 57.07 1.74