TruthIsAll
08-27-2009, 05:45 AM
OHIO
Late Votes
There were 128,000 late paper ballot votes in 2000
Gore had a 53.1-44.3% margin.
There were 145,000 late paper ballot votes in 2004
Kerry had a 56.2-43.8% margin.
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True Vote Model
Kerry won by 160,000 votes
2000 Recorded (mil) 2004 Calculated
Voted Actual Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush
DNV - 1.31 23.4% 57% 43%
Gore 2.19 0.08 2.11 95% 2.00 35.7% 91% 9%
Bush 2.35 0.08 2.27 95% 2.16 38.6% 10% 90%
Nader 0.14 0.01 0.14 95% 0.13 2.4% 77% 23%
Total 4.68 0.16 4.52 4.29 5.60 100% 51.5% 48.5%
5.60 2.88 2.72
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Election Calculator
2000 Recorded 2004 Calculated
Voted Actual Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush
DNV 1.33 23.0% 60% 40%
Gore 2.19 0.18 2.37 0.12 2.25 95% 2.13 37.0% 93% 7%
Bush 2.35 0.05 2.40 0.11 2.29 95% 2.18 37.7% 11% 89%
Nader 0.14 0.01 0.15 0.01 0.14 95% 0.14 2.4% 75% 25%
Total 4.68 0.25 4.93 0.24 4.68 4.45 5.77 100% 54.1% 45.9%
5.77 3.12 2.65
Sensitivity Analysis I
Effects of Gore share of uncounted votes and Gore voter turnout in 2004
Bush 2000 Turnout: 95%
Gore% Gore Voter Turnout
Unctd 91% 93% 95% 97% 99%
Kerry Ohio Vote Share
85% 53.9% 54.1% 54.4% 54.7% 54.9%
80% 53.7% 54.0% 54.2% 54.5% 54.8%
75% 53.6% 53.8% 54.1% 54.3% 54.6%
70% 53.4% 53.7% 53.9% 54.2% 54.4%
65% 53.2% 53.5% 53.8% 54.0% 54.3%
Kerry Margin (mil)
85% 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51
80% 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49
75% 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47
70% 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45
65% 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43
Sensitivity Analysis II
Effects of Kerry’s share of Gore and New voters
Kerry share of Bush 2000 voters: 11%
Kerry% Kerry % of New voters (DNV in 2000)
Gore 56% 58% 60% 62% 64%
Kerry Ohio Vote Share
97% 54.6% 55.1% 55.6% 56.0% 56.5%
95% 53.9% 54.4% 54.8% 55.3% 55.7%
93% 53.2% 53.6% 54.1% 54.5% 55.0%
91% 52.4% 52.9% 53.3% 53.8% 54.3%
89% 51.7% 52.1% 52.6% 53.1% 53.5%
Kerry Margin (mil)
97% 0.54 0.59 0.64 0.69 0.75
95% 0.45 0.50 0.56 0.61 0.66
93% 0.37 0.42 0.47 0.52 0.58
91% 0.28 0.33 0.39 0.44 0.49
89% 0.19 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.41
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Ohio 2004 Exit Poll
12:22am Composite
1963 respondents
MoE: 2.21%
Kerry won the preliminary by 51-48%.
All category weightings and/or vote shares werre forced to match the recorded vote.
Weights for these categories can be confirmed by other data/polling:
Gender
Ohio Approval
New Voter
Party-ID
When Decided
Region
Location
Senate vote
--Probability--
CATEGORY Kerry Kerry Vote Dev
Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Margin Win 1 in
GENDER 52.06% 47.94% 2.934 2.701 0.232 96.6% 187
RACE/GENDER 51.76% 48.24% 2.917 2.718 0.198 94.1% 90
RACE 51.58% 48.42% 2.907 2.728 0.178 91.9% 60
AGE 51.39% 48.31% 2.896 2.722 0.174 89.1% 77
INCOME 52.40% 47.13% 2.953 2.656 0.297 98.3% 1862
EDUCATION 50.94% 48.77% 2.870 2.748 0.122 79.8% 29
PARTY ID 51.80% 47.57% 2.919 2.681 0.238 94.5% 504
IDEOLOGY 51.10% 48.90% 2.879 2.756 0.124 83.5% 23
VOTED BEFORE? 50.70% 49.30% 2.857 2.778 0.079 73.3% 11
RELIGION 50.96% 48.78% 2.872 2.749 0.123 80.3% 28
WHEN DECIDED 50.96% 48.94% 2.872 2.758 0.114 80.3% 21
SIZE 1 51.17% 48.45% 2.883 2.730 0.153 85.0% 56
SIZE 2 51.33% 48.67% 2.892 2.743 0.150 88.1% 35
REGION 51.57% 48.09% 2.906 2.710 0.196 91.8% 129
U.S.SENATE 51.96% 48.04% 2.928 2.707 0.221 95.9% 146
AVERAGE 51.36% 48.46% 2.894 2.731 0.163 88.6% 54
ACTUAL 48.71% 50.82% 2.740 2.859 -0.119 12.6% 2
____________________________________________________________________________
Ohio Ohio Final NEP
12:22am (1963) 2:06pm (2020) 12:22am (13047)
GENDER Mix Votes Kerry Bush Mix Kerry Bush Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other
Male 47% 2.65 51% 49% 47% 48% 52% 46% 56.20 47% 52% 1%
Female 53% 2.99 53% 47% 53% 50% 50% 54% 65.97 54% 45% 1%
Total 52.06% 47.94% 49.06% 50.94% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00%
5.635 2.934 2.701 2.765 2.870 122.17 62.04 58.91 1.22
VOTED BEFORE? VOTED in 2000
No 14% 0.79 55% 45% 15% 54% 46% No 17% 20.77 57% 41% 2%
Yes 86% 4.85 50% 50% 85% 47% 52% Gore 39% 47.65 91% 8% 1%
Total 50.70% 49.30% 48.05% 51.10% Bush 41% 50.09 10% 90% 0%
2.857 2.778 2.708 2.879 Nader 3% 3.67 71% 21% 8%
51.41% 47.62% 0.97%
122.17 62.80 58.17 1.18
WHEN DECIDED
Today 5% 0.28 60% 40% 5% 61% 39% 6% 7.31 53% 40% 5%
3Days 4% 0.23 64% 36% 4% 64% 36% 3% 3.65 53% 41% 4%
Week 2% 0.11 64% 36% 3% 64% 36% 2% 2.44 48% 51% 1%
Month 10% 0.56 62% 37% 11% 61% 36% 10% 12.18 60% 38% 1%
Before 79% 4.45 48% 52% 78% 45% 55% 79% 96.24 50% 50% 0%
Total 50.96% 48.94% 48.73% 50.27% 51.23% 47.95% 0.54%
2.872 2.758 2.746 2.872 121.83 62.58 58.58 0.66
REGION
Cuyahoga 13% 0.73 65% 35% 12% 65% 35% East 22% 26.74 58% 41% 1%
NE 27% 1.52 55% 45% 27% 50% 50% Central 26% 31.60 50% 49% 1%
Central 23% 1.30 47% 52% 20% 40% 58% South 31% 37.68 44% 54% 1%
NW 11% 0.62 50% 49% 15% 52% 47% West 21% 25.52 53% 45% 1%
SW 26% 1.47 46% 54% 26% 45% 55%
Total 51.57% 48.09% 48.80% 50.65% 50.53% 47.95% 1.00%
2.906 2.710 2.750 2.854 121.54 61.73 58.58 1.22
BUSH JOB ApprovalMILITARY
Approve 51% 2.87 7% 93% 53% 7% 93% Yes 18% 21.95 43% 55% 1%
Disap 49% 2.76 95% 5% 46% 94% 5% No 82% 100.00 53% 46% 1%
Total 50.12% 49.88% 46.95% 51.59% 51.20% 47.62% 1.00%
2.824 2.811 2.646 2.907 121.95 62.55 58.17 1.22
PARTY ID
Dem 38% 2.14 91% 8% 35% 90% 9% 38% 46.17 90% 9% 1%
Rep 37% 2.08 6% 94% 40% 6% 94% 35% 42.53 7% 92% 1%
Ind 25% 1.41 60% 39% 25% 59% 40% 27% 32.81 52% 44% 2%
Total 51.80% 47.57% 48.65% 50.75% 50.69% 47.50% 1.27%
2.919 2.681 2.741 2.860 121.51 61.92 58.03 1.55
SIZE OF COMMUNITY
BigCity 7% 0.39 50% 49% 6% 43% 53%
SmCity 19% 1.07 62% 38% 19% 62% 38%
Suburbs 49% 2.76 51% 49% 49% 49% 51%
SmTowns 6% 0.34 55% 43% 6% 49% 49%
Rural 19% 1.07 40% 59% 19% 36% 63%
Total 51.17% 48.45% 48.15% 50.30%
2.883 2.730 2.713 2.834
SIZE OF COMMUNITY
Urban 26% 1.47 59% 41% 25% 58% 41%
Suburb 49% 2.76 51% 49% 49% 49% 51%
Rural 25% 1.41 44% 56% 25% 40% 60%
Total 51.33% 48.67% 48.51% 50.24%
2.892 2.743 2.734 2.831
VOTE FOR U.S. SENATE
Dem 43% 2.42 93% 7% 36% 94% 6%
Rep 57% 3.21 21% 79% 64% 23% 77%
Total 51.96% 48.04% 48.56% 51.44%
2.928 2.707 2.736 2.899
(thousands)
2000 2004
County Precincts Vote/Prec Total GORE BUSH NADER GORE BUSH NADER Margin Total KERRY BUSH Margin KERRY BUSH
Recorded 12164 460 4,655 2,186 2,351 117 47.0% 50.5% 2.5% 165 5,600 2,741 2,859 1181 48.9% 51.1%
Initial 4,526 2,117 2,294 114 46.8% 50.7% 2.5% 176 5,455 2,659 2,796 136 48.7% 51.3%
Late 128 68 57 3 53.1% 44.3% 2.6% -11 145 81 63 -17 56.2% 43.8%
Initial
DRE
Auglaize ** 43 515 18,936 5,347 13,233 356 28.2% 69.9% 1.9% 7,886 22,166 5,729 16,437 10,708 25.8% 74.2%
Franklin ** 760 671 399,526 196,117 193,026 10,383 49.1% 48.3% 2.6% -3,091 509,769 275,573 234,196 -41,377 54.1% 45.9%
Knox ** 51 515 20,460 6,965 13,050 445 34.0% 63.8% 2.2% 6,085 26,290 9,613 16,677 7,064 36.6% 63.4%
Lake ** 217 544 99,053 45,441 50,520 3,092 45.9% 51.0% 3.1% 5,079 118,086 57,471 60,615 3,144 48.7% 51.3%
Mahoning ** 416 311 111,703 68,383 40,035 3,285 61.2% 35.8% 2.9% -28,348 129,468 81,500 47,968 -33,532 62.9% 37.1%
Pickaway ** 52 428 17,291 6,476 10,541 274 37.5% 61.0% 1.6% 4,065 22,252 8,388 13,864 5,476 37.7% 62.3%
Ross ** 76 403 25,307 11,457 13,435 415 45.3% 53.1% 1.6% 1,978 30,641 13,701 16,940 3,239 44.7% 55.3%
Total 1615 532 692,276 340,186 333,840 18,250 49.1% 48.2% 2.6% -6,346 858,672 451,975 406,697 -45,278 52.6% 47.4%
SCAN
Allen ** 173 274 42,098 13,541 27,822 735 32.2% 66.1% 1.7% 14,281 47,451 15,822 31,629 15,807 33.3% 66.7%
Ashland ** 65 372 20,145 6,484 13,110 551 32.2% 65.1% 2.7% 6,626 24,171 8,345 15,826 7,481 34.5% 65.5%
Clermont ** 191 456 67,775 20,419 46,101 1,255 30.1% 68.0% 1.9% 25,682 87,012 25,318 61,694 36,376 29.1% 70.9%
Coshocton ** 43 369 13,933 5,521 8,122 290 39.6% 58.3% 2.1% 2,601 15,884 6,763 9,121 2,358 42.6% 57.4%
Erie ** 101 383 33,967 17,317 15,799 851 51.0% 46.5% 2.5% -1,518 38,671 20,652 18,019 -2,633 53.4% 46.6%
Geauga ** 93 533 41,455 15,086 24,994 1,375 36.4% 60.3% 3.3% 9,908 49,528 19,571 29,957 10,386 39.5% 60.5%
Hancock ** 67 512 29,650 8,564 20,513 573 28.9% 69.2% 1.9% 11,949 34,275 9,930 24,345 14,415 29.0% 71.0%
Hardin ** 39 331 10,797 4,088 6,486 223 37.9% 60.1% 2.1% 2,398 12,910 4,723 8,187 3,464 36.6% 63.4%
Lucas ** 549 390 181,949 105,756 71,938 4,255 58.1% 39.5% 2.3% -33,818 214,279 128,874 85,405 -43,469 60.1% 39.9%
Miami ** 82 611 41,632 15,287 25,488 857 36.7% 61.2% 2.1% 10,201 50,078 17,039 33,039 16,000 34.0% 66.0%
Ottawa ** 78 291 19,438 9,290 9,728 420 47.8% 50.0% 2.2% 438 22,735 10,915 11,820 905 48.0% 52.0%
Sandusky ** 90 353 24,733 10,816 13,349 568 43.7% 54.0% 2.3% 2,533 31,733 13,909 17,824 3,915 43.8% 56.2%
Washington 81 360 25,798 10,182 15,056 560 39.5% 58.4% 2.2% 4,874 29,166 12,137 17,029 4,892 41.6% 58.4%
Total 986 667 553,370 242,351 298,506 12,513 43.8% 53.9% 2.3% 56,155 657,893 293,998 363,895 69,897 44.7% 55.3%
PUNCH
Adams ** 35 333 9,906 3,494 6,252 160 35.3% 63.1% 1.6% 2,758 11,669 4,189 7,480 3,291 35.9% 64.1%
Ashtabula ** 127 348 38,101 19,407 17,598 1,096 50.9% 46.2% 2.9% -1,809 44,166 23,545 20,621 -2,924 53.3% 46.7%
Athens ** 69 395 22,022 11,813 8,822 1,387 53.6% 40.1% 6.3% -2,991 27,281 17,369 9,912 -7,457 63.7% 36.3%
Belmont ** 93 350 28,879 15,752 12,410 717 54.5% 43.0% 2.5% -3,342 32,531 17,256 15,275 -1,981 53.0% 47.0%
Brown ** 44 444 16,046 5,889 9,892 265 36.7% 61.6% 1.7% 4,003 19,538 7,058 12,480 5,422 36.1% 63.9%
Butler ** 280 575 130,928 44,661 83,680 2,587 34.1% 63.9% 2.0% 39,019 160,920 54,185 106,735 52,550 33.7% 66.3%
Carroll ** 26 528 11,777 4,879 6,629 269 41.4% 56.3% 2.3% 1,750 13,721 6,190 7,531 1,341 45.1% 54.9%
Champaign 50 364 15,110 5,790 8,982 338 38.3% 59.4% 2.2% 3,192 18,184 6,752 11,432 4,680 37.1% 62.9%
Clark ** 112 601 55,762 27,309 27,142 1,311 49.0% 48.7% 2.4% -167 67,268 32,824 34,444 1,620 48.8% 51.2%
Clinton ** 36 496 14,592 4,667 9,608 317 32.0% 65.8% 2.2% 4,941 17,869 5,244 12,625 7,381 29.3% 70.7%
Columbn ** 103 467 42,766 20,251 21,319 1,196 47.4% 49.9% 2.8% 1,068 48,096 22,884 25,212 2,328 47.6% 52.4%
Crawford ** 67 318 18,544 6,584 11,443 517 35.5% 61.7% 2.8% 4,859 21,293 7,626 13,667 6,041 35.8% 64.2%
Cuyahoga ** 1506 431 542,427 341,479 184,689 16,259 63.0% 34.0% 3.0% -156,790 648,886 433,262 215,624 -217,638 66.8% 33.2%
Darke ** 53 482 22,517 7,568 14,512 437 33.6% 64.4% 1.9% 6,944 25,532 7,663 17,869 10,206 30.0% 70.0%
Defiance ** 46 385 15,659 6,022 9,282 355 38.5% 59.3% 2.3% 3,260 17,701 6,683 11,018 4,335 37.8% 62.2%
Delaware ** 111 709 53,595 16,696 35,723 1,176 31.2% 66.7% 2.2% 19,027 78,728 26,491 52,237 25,746 33.6% 66.4%
Fairfield ** 118 563 52,783 18,739 32,948 1,096 35.5% 62.4% 2.1% 14,209 66,378 24,321 42,057 17,736 36.6% 63.4%
Fayette ** 40 287 9,035 3,298 5,575 162 36.5% 61.7% 1.8% 2,277 11,465 4,244 7,221 2,977 37.0% 63.0%
Fulton ** 36 598 18,434 6,695 11,373 366 36.3% 61.7% 2.0% 4,678 21,541 8,098 13,443 5,345 37.6% 62.4%
Gallia ** 36 375 12,328 4,758 7,363 207 38.6% 59.7% 1.7% 2,605 13,508 5,188 8,320 3,132 38.4% 61.6%
Greene ** 140 544 62,074 23,892 36,669 1,513 38.5% 59.1% 2.4% 12,777 76,190 29,349 46,841 17,492 38.5% 61.5%
Guernsey ** 71 228 14,570 6,352 7,823 395 43.6% 53.7% 2.7% 1,471 16,167 7,072 9,095 2,023 43.7% 56.3%
Hamilton ** 1025 397 359,437 153,227 197,339 8,871 42.6% 54.9% 2.5% 44,112 406,595 190,956 215,639 24,683 47.0% 53.0%
Harrison ** 24 339 6,896 3,319 3,389 188 48.1% 49.1% 2.7% 70 8,142 3,824 4,318 494 47.0% 53.0%
Henry ** 33 448 12,936 4,278 8,407 251 33.1% 65.0% 1.9% 4,129 14,797 5,027 9,770 4,743 34.0% 66.0%
Highland ** 46 389 15,031 5,230 9,559 242 34.8% 63.6% 1.6% 4,329 17,883 6,012 11,871 5,859 33.6% 66.4%
Hocking ** 31 416 10,229 4,373 5,571 285 42.8% 54.5% 2.8% 1,198 12,886 6,065 6,821 756 47.1% 52.9%
Holmes ** 27 404 8,827 2,033 6,623 171 23.0% 75.0% 1.9% 4,590 10,921 2,622 8,299 5,677 24.0% 76.0%
Huron ** 69 361 20,649 8,011 12,085 553 38.8% 58.5% 2.7% 4,074 24,907 10,354 14,553 4,199 41.6% 58.4%
Jackson ** 40 348 12,120 5,052 6,847 221 41.7% 56.5% 1.8% 1,795 13,901 5,519 8,382 2,863 39.7% 60.3%
Jefferson ** 108 329 32,861 17,177 14,801 883 52.3% 45.0% 2.7% -2,376 35,561 18,674 16,887 -1,787 52.5% 47.5%
Lawrence ** 84 322 23,872 11,127 12,347 398 46.6% 51.7% 1.7% 1,220 27,052 11,874 15,178 3,304 43.9% 56.1%
Licking ** 139 557 60,811 22,797 36,537 1,477 37.5% 60.1% 2.4% 13,740 77,442 29,350 48,092 18,742 37.9% 62.1%
Logan ** 52 399 17,871 5,818 11,612 441 32.6% 65.0% 2.5% 5,794 20,728 6,644 14,084 7,440 32.1% 67.9%
Lorain ** 246 554 108,011 58,047 46,864 3,100 53.7% 43.4% 2.9% -11,183 136,263 76,512 59,751 -16,761 56.2% 43.8%
Madison ** 44 387 14,174 5,166 8,715 293 36.4% 61.5% 2.1% 3,549 17,011 6,080 10,931 4,851 35.7% 64.3%
Marion ** 90 314 24,009 10,097 13,335 577 42.1% 55.5% 2.4% 3,238 28,221 11,492 16,729 5,237 40.7% 59.3%
Medina ** 146 570 64,961 26,249 36,777 1,935 40.4% 56.6% 3.0% 10,528 83,224 35,725 47,499 11,774 42.9% 57.1%
Meigs ** 27 389 9,444 3,592 5,628 224 38.0% 59.6% 2.4% 2,036 10,490 4,334 6,156 1,822 41.3% 58.7%
Mercer ** 40 499 17,602 5,082 12,136 384 28.9% 68.9% 2.2% 7,054 19,946 4,924 15,022 10,098 24.7% 75.3%
Monroe ** 29 260 6,783 3,551 3,086 146 52.4% 45.5% 2.2% -465 7,534 4,164 3,370 -794 55.3% 44.7%
Montgomery 643 425 222,888 111,001 107,330 4,557 49.8% 48.2% 2.0% -3,671 272,978 138,262 134,716 -3,546 50.6% 49.4%
Morgan ** 22 296 5,834 2,242 3,419 173 38.4% 58.6% 3.0% 1,177 6,505 2,810 3,695 885 43.2% 56.8%
Morrow ** 36 443 12,498 4,470 7,727 301 35.8% 61.8% 2.4% 3,257 15,964 5,651 10,313 4,662 35.4% 64.6%
Muskingum 85 446 31,441 13,088 17,495 858 41.6% 55.6% 2.7% 4,407 37,951 16,050 21,901 5,851 42.3% 57.7%
Noble ** 27 238 5,832 2,277 3,401 154 39.0% 58.3% 2.6% 1,124 6,417 2,618 3,799 1,181 40.8% 59.2%
Paulding ** 30 321 8,698 3,331 5,129 238 38.3% 59.0% 2.7% 1,798 9,618 3,544 6,074 2,530 36.8% 63.2%
Perry ** 46 325 12,499 5,817 6,354 328 46.5% 50.8% 2.6% 537 14,972 7,205 7,767 562 48.1% 51.9%
Pike ** 24 510 10,228 4,819 5,237 172 47.1% 51.2% 1.7% 418 12,250 5,865 6,385 520 47.9% 52.1%
Portage ** 122 615 60,850 30,805 27,762 2,283 50.6% 45.6% 3.8% -3,043 74,969 39,915 35,054 -4,861 53.2% 46.8%
Preble ** 46 450 17,648 6,278 10,976 394 35.6% 62.2% 2.2% 4,698 20,677 7,165 13,512 6,347 34.7% 65.3%
Putnam ** 51 364 16,984 4,028 12,706 250 23.7% 74.8% 1.5% 8,678 18,544 4,348 14,196 9,848 23.4% 76.6%
Richland ** 131 460 50,980 20,110 29,592 1,278 39.4% 58.0% 2.5% 9,482 60,309 24,056 36,253 12,197 39.9% 60.1%
Scioto ** 107 321 30,020 13,706 15,730 584 45.7% 52.4% 1.9% 2,024 34,376 16,438 17,938 1,500 47.8% 52.2%
Seneca ** 73 362 23,706 9,381 13,671 654 39.6% 57.7% 2.8% 4,290 26,394 10,770 15,624 4,854 40.8% 59.2%
Shelby ** 67 331 19,107 6,485 12,240 382 33.9% 64.1% 2.0% 5,755 22,162 6,337 15,825 9,488 28.6% 71.4%
Stark ** 364 500 153,808 73,417 76,451 3,940 47.7% 49.7% 2.6% 3,034 182,154 92,295 89,859 -2,436 50.7% 49.3%
Summit ** 624 431 217,232 116,754 94,640 5,838 53.7% 43.6% 2.7% -22,114 269,081 152,897 116,184 -36,713 56.8% 43.2%
Trumbull ** 284 372 92,901 56,309 33,896 2,696 60.6% 36.5% 2.9% -22,413 105,541 65,321 40,220 -25,101 61.9% 38.1%
Tuscarawas 81 516 35,814 15,608 19,163 1,043 43.6% 53.5% 2.9% 3,555 41,819 18,460 23,359 4,899 44.1% 55.9%
Union ** 47 471 16,533 4,933 11,266 334 29.8% 68.1% 2.0% 6,333 22,139 6,546 15,593 9,047 29.6% 70.4%
Van Wert ** 39 372 12,823 4,122 8,489 212 32.1% 66.2% 1.7% 4,367 14,510 4,026 10,484 6,458 27.7% 72.3%
Vinton ** 20 290 4,799 2,011 2,679 109 41.9% 55.8% 2.3% 668 5,806 2,612 3,194 582 45.0% 55.0%
Warren ** 142 647 67,031 18,749 47,235 1,047 28.0% 70.5% 1.6% 28,486 91,922 25,399 66,523 41,124 27.6% 72.4%
Wayne ** 100 509 41,097 14,524 25,422 1,151 35.3% 61.9% 2.8% 10,898 50,888 19,455 31,433 11,978 38.2% 61.8%
Williams ** 44 406 15,292 5,322 9,632 338 34.8% 63.0% 2.2% 4,310 17,864 6,231 11,633 5,402 34.9% 65.1%
Wood ** 103 590 50,351 22,089 26,808 1,454 43.9% 53.2% 2.9% 4,719 60,790 28,216 32,574 4,358 46.4% 53.6%
Wyandot ** 40 263 9,471 3,307 5,979 185 34.9% 63.1% 2.0% 2,672 10,510 3,554 6,956 3,402 33.8% 66.2%
Total 8,897 443 3,280,744 1,535,204 1,661,821 83,719 46.8% 50.7% 2.6% 126,617 3,939,246 1,913,691 2,025,555 111,864 48.6% 51.4%
Late Votes
There were 128,000 late paper ballot votes in 2000
Gore had a 53.1-44.3% margin.
There were 145,000 late paper ballot votes in 2004
Kerry had a 56.2-43.8% margin.
____________________________________________________________________________
True Vote Model
Kerry won by 160,000 votes
2000 Recorded (mil) 2004 Calculated
Voted Actual Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush
DNV - 1.31 23.4% 57% 43%
Gore 2.19 0.08 2.11 95% 2.00 35.7% 91% 9%
Bush 2.35 0.08 2.27 95% 2.16 38.6% 10% 90%
Nader 0.14 0.01 0.14 95% 0.13 2.4% 77% 23%
Total 4.68 0.16 4.52 4.29 5.60 100% 51.5% 48.5%
5.60 2.88 2.72
____________________________________________________________________________
Election Calculator
2000 Recorded 2004 Calculated
Voted Actual Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush
DNV 1.33 23.0% 60% 40%
Gore 2.19 0.18 2.37 0.12 2.25 95% 2.13 37.0% 93% 7%
Bush 2.35 0.05 2.40 0.11 2.29 95% 2.18 37.7% 11% 89%
Nader 0.14 0.01 0.15 0.01 0.14 95% 0.14 2.4% 75% 25%
Total 4.68 0.25 4.93 0.24 4.68 4.45 5.77 100% 54.1% 45.9%
5.77 3.12 2.65
Sensitivity Analysis I
Effects of Gore share of uncounted votes and Gore voter turnout in 2004
Bush 2000 Turnout: 95%
Gore% Gore Voter Turnout
Unctd 91% 93% 95% 97% 99%
Kerry Ohio Vote Share
85% 53.9% 54.1% 54.4% 54.7% 54.9%
80% 53.7% 54.0% 54.2% 54.5% 54.8%
75% 53.6% 53.8% 54.1% 54.3% 54.6%
70% 53.4% 53.7% 53.9% 54.2% 54.4%
65% 53.2% 53.5% 53.8% 54.0% 54.3%
Kerry Margin (mil)
85% 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51
80% 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49
75% 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47
70% 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45
65% 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43
Sensitivity Analysis II
Effects of Kerry’s share of Gore and New voters
Kerry share of Bush 2000 voters: 11%
Kerry% Kerry % of New voters (DNV in 2000)
Gore 56% 58% 60% 62% 64%
Kerry Ohio Vote Share
97% 54.6% 55.1% 55.6% 56.0% 56.5%
95% 53.9% 54.4% 54.8% 55.3% 55.7%
93% 53.2% 53.6% 54.1% 54.5% 55.0%
91% 52.4% 52.9% 53.3% 53.8% 54.3%
89% 51.7% 52.1% 52.6% 53.1% 53.5%
Kerry Margin (mil)
97% 0.54 0.59 0.64 0.69 0.75
95% 0.45 0.50 0.56 0.61 0.66
93% 0.37 0.42 0.47 0.52 0.58
91% 0.28 0.33 0.39 0.44 0.49
89% 0.19 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.41
____________________________________________________________________________
Ohio 2004 Exit Poll
12:22am Composite
1963 respondents
MoE: 2.21%
Kerry won the preliminary by 51-48%.
All category weightings and/or vote shares werre forced to match the recorded vote.
Weights for these categories can be confirmed by other data/polling:
Gender
Ohio Approval
New Voter
Party-ID
When Decided
Region
Location
Senate vote
--Probability--
CATEGORY Kerry Kerry Vote Dev
Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Margin Win 1 in
GENDER 52.06% 47.94% 2.934 2.701 0.232 96.6% 187
RACE/GENDER 51.76% 48.24% 2.917 2.718 0.198 94.1% 90
RACE 51.58% 48.42% 2.907 2.728 0.178 91.9% 60
AGE 51.39% 48.31% 2.896 2.722 0.174 89.1% 77
INCOME 52.40% 47.13% 2.953 2.656 0.297 98.3% 1862
EDUCATION 50.94% 48.77% 2.870 2.748 0.122 79.8% 29
PARTY ID 51.80% 47.57% 2.919 2.681 0.238 94.5% 504
IDEOLOGY 51.10% 48.90% 2.879 2.756 0.124 83.5% 23
VOTED BEFORE? 50.70% 49.30% 2.857 2.778 0.079 73.3% 11
RELIGION 50.96% 48.78% 2.872 2.749 0.123 80.3% 28
WHEN DECIDED 50.96% 48.94% 2.872 2.758 0.114 80.3% 21
SIZE 1 51.17% 48.45% 2.883 2.730 0.153 85.0% 56
SIZE 2 51.33% 48.67% 2.892 2.743 0.150 88.1% 35
REGION 51.57% 48.09% 2.906 2.710 0.196 91.8% 129
U.S.SENATE 51.96% 48.04% 2.928 2.707 0.221 95.9% 146
AVERAGE 51.36% 48.46% 2.894 2.731 0.163 88.6% 54
ACTUAL 48.71% 50.82% 2.740 2.859 -0.119 12.6% 2
____________________________________________________________________________
Ohio Ohio Final NEP
12:22am (1963) 2:06pm (2020) 12:22am (13047)
GENDER Mix Votes Kerry Bush Mix Kerry Bush Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other
Male 47% 2.65 51% 49% 47% 48% 52% 46% 56.20 47% 52% 1%
Female 53% 2.99 53% 47% 53% 50% 50% 54% 65.97 54% 45% 1%
Total 52.06% 47.94% 49.06% 50.94% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00%
5.635 2.934 2.701 2.765 2.870 122.17 62.04 58.91 1.22
VOTED BEFORE? VOTED in 2000
No 14% 0.79 55% 45% 15% 54% 46% No 17% 20.77 57% 41% 2%
Yes 86% 4.85 50% 50% 85% 47% 52% Gore 39% 47.65 91% 8% 1%
Total 50.70% 49.30% 48.05% 51.10% Bush 41% 50.09 10% 90% 0%
2.857 2.778 2.708 2.879 Nader 3% 3.67 71% 21% 8%
51.41% 47.62% 0.97%
122.17 62.80 58.17 1.18
WHEN DECIDED
Today 5% 0.28 60% 40% 5% 61% 39% 6% 7.31 53% 40% 5%
3Days 4% 0.23 64% 36% 4% 64% 36% 3% 3.65 53% 41% 4%
Week 2% 0.11 64% 36% 3% 64% 36% 2% 2.44 48% 51% 1%
Month 10% 0.56 62% 37% 11% 61% 36% 10% 12.18 60% 38% 1%
Before 79% 4.45 48% 52% 78% 45% 55% 79% 96.24 50% 50% 0%
Total 50.96% 48.94% 48.73% 50.27% 51.23% 47.95% 0.54%
2.872 2.758 2.746 2.872 121.83 62.58 58.58 0.66
REGION
Cuyahoga 13% 0.73 65% 35% 12% 65% 35% East 22% 26.74 58% 41% 1%
NE 27% 1.52 55% 45% 27% 50% 50% Central 26% 31.60 50% 49% 1%
Central 23% 1.30 47% 52% 20% 40% 58% South 31% 37.68 44% 54% 1%
NW 11% 0.62 50% 49% 15% 52% 47% West 21% 25.52 53% 45% 1%
SW 26% 1.47 46% 54% 26% 45% 55%
Total 51.57% 48.09% 48.80% 50.65% 50.53% 47.95% 1.00%
2.906 2.710 2.750 2.854 121.54 61.73 58.58 1.22
BUSH JOB ApprovalMILITARY
Approve 51% 2.87 7% 93% 53% 7% 93% Yes 18% 21.95 43% 55% 1%
Disap 49% 2.76 95% 5% 46% 94% 5% No 82% 100.00 53% 46% 1%
Total 50.12% 49.88% 46.95% 51.59% 51.20% 47.62% 1.00%
2.824 2.811 2.646 2.907 121.95 62.55 58.17 1.22
PARTY ID
Dem 38% 2.14 91% 8% 35% 90% 9% 38% 46.17 90% 9% 1%
Rep 37% 2.08 6% 94% 40% 6% 94% 35% 42.53 7% 92% 1%
Ind 25% 1.41 60% 39% 25% 59% 40% 27% 32.81 52% 44% 2%
Total 51.80% 47.57% 48.65% 50.75% 50.69% 47.50% 1.27%
2.919 2.681 2.741 2.860 121.51 61.92 58.03 1.55
SIZE OF COMMUNITY
BigCity 7% 0.39 50% 49% 6% 43% 53%
SmCity 19% 1.07 62% 38% 19% 62% 38%
Suburbs 49% 2.76 51% 49% 49% 49% 51%
SmTowns 6% 0.34 55% 43% 6% 49% 49%
Rural 19% 1.07 40% 59% 19% 36% 63%
Total 51.17% 48.45% 48.15% 50.30%
2.883 2.730 2.713 2.834
SIZE OF COMMUNITY
Urban 26% 1.47 59% 41% 25% 58% 41%
Suburb 49% 2.76 51% 49% 49% 49% 51%
Rural 25% 1.41 44% 56% 25% 40% 60%
Total 51.33% 48.67% 48.51% 50.24%
2.892 2.743 2.734 2.831
VOTE FOR U.S. SENATE
Dem 43% 2.42 93% 7% 36% 94% 6%
Rep 57% 3.21 21% 79% 64% 23% 77%
Total 51.96% 48.04% 48.56% 51.44%
2.928 2.707 2.736 2.899
(thousands)
2000 2004
County Precincts Vote/Prec Total GORE BUSH NADER GORE BUSH NADER Margin Total KERRY BUSH Margin KERRY BUSH
Recorded 12164 460 4,655 2,186 2,351 117 47.0% 50.5% 2.5% 165 5,600 2,741 2,859 1181 48.9% 51.1%
Initial 4,526 2,117 2,294 114 46.8% 50.7% 2.5% 176 5,455 2,659 2,796 136 48.7% 51.3%
Late 128 68 57 3 53.1% 44.3% 2.6% -11 145 81 63 -17 56.2% 43.8%
Initial
DRE
Auglaize ** 43 515 18,936 5,347 13,233 356 28.2% 69.9% 1.9% 7,886 22,166 5,729 16,437 10,708 25.8% 74.2%
Franklin ** 760 671 399,526 196,117 193,026 10,383 49.1% 48.3% 2.6% -3,091 509,769 275,573 234,196 -41,377 54.1% 45.9%
Knox ** 51 515 20,460 6,965 13,050 445 34.0% 63.8% 2.2% 6,085 26,290 9,613 16,677 7,064 36.6% 63.4%
Lake ** 217 544 99,053 45,441 50,520 3,092 45.9% 51.0% 3.1% 5,079 118,086 57,471 60,615 3,144 48.7% 51.3%
Mahoning ** 416 311 111,703 68,383 40,035 3,285 61.2% 35.8% 2.9% -28,348 129,468 81,500 47,968 -33,532 62.9% 37.1%
Pickaway ** 52 428 17,291 6,476 10,541 274 37.5% 61.0% 1.6% 4,065 22,252 8,388 13,864 5,476 37.7% 62.3%
Ross ** 76 403 25,307 11,457 13,435 415 45.3% 53.1% 1.6% 1,978 30,641 13,701 16,940 3,239 44.7% 55.3%
Total 1615 532 692,276 340,186 333,840 18,250 49.1% 48.2% 2.6% -6,346 858,672 451,975 406,697 -45,278 52.6% 47.4%
SCAN
Allen ** 173 274 42,098 13,541 27,822 735 32.2% 66.1% 1.7% 14,281 47,451 15,822 31,629 15,807 33.3% 66.7%
Ashland ** 65 372 20,145 6,484 13,110 551 32.2% 65.1% 2.7% 6,626 24,171 8,345 15,826 7,481 34.5% 65.5%
Clermont ** 191 456 67,775 20,419 46,101 1,255 30.1% 68.0% 1.9% 25,682 87,012 25,318 61,694 36,376 29.1% 70.9%
Coshocton ** 43 369 13,933 5,521 8,122 290 39.6% 58.3% 2.1% 2,601 15,884 6,763 9,121 2,358 42.6% 57.4%
Erie ** 101 383 33,967 17,317 15,799 851 51.0% 46.5% 2.5% -1,518 38,671 20,652 18,019 -2,633 53.4% 46.6%
Geauga ** 93 533 41,455 15,086 24,994 1,375 36.4% 60.3% 3.3% 9,908 49,528 19,571 29,957 10,386 39.5% 60.5%
Hancock ** 67 512 29,650 8,564 20,513 573 28.9% 69.2% 1.9% 11,949 34,275 9,930 24,345 14,415 29.0% 71.0%
Hardin ** 39 331 10,797 4,088 6,486 223 37.9% 60.1% 2.1% 2,398 12,910 4,723 8,187 3,464 36.6% 63.4%
Lucas ** 549 390 181,949 105,756 71,938 4,255 58.1% 39.5% 2.3% -33,818 214,279 128,874 85,405 -43,469 60.1% 39.9%
Miami ** 82 611 41,632 15,287 25,488 857 36.7% 61.2% 2.1% 10,201 50,078 17,039 33,039 16,000 34.0% 66.0%
Ottawa ** 78 291 19,438 9,290 9,728 420 47.8% 50.0% 2.2% 438 22,735 10,915 11,820 905 48.0% 52.0%
Sandusky ** 90 353 24,733 10,816 13,349 568 43.7% 54.0% 2.3% 2,533 31,733 13,909 17,824 3,915 43.8% 56.2%
Washington 81 360 25,798 10,182 15,056 560 39.5% 58.4% 2.2% 4,874 29,166 12,137 17,029 4,892 41.6% 58.4%
Total 986 667 553,370 242,351 298,506 12,513 43.8% 53.9% 2.3% 56,155 657,893 293,998 363,895 69,897 44.7% 55.3%
PUNCH
Adams ** 35 333 9,906 3,494 6,252 160 35.3% 63.1% 1.6% 2,758 11,669 4,189 7,480 3,291 35.9% 64.1%
Ashtabula ** 127 348 38,101 19,407 17,598 1,096 50.9% 46.2% 2.9% -1,809 44,166 23,545 20,621 -2,924 53.3% 46.7%
Athens ** 69 395 22,022 11,813 8,822 1,387 53.6% 40.1% 6.3% -2,991 27,281 17,369 9,912 -7,457 63.7% 36.3%
Belmont ** 93 350 28,879 15,752 12,410 717 54.5% 43.0% 2.5% -3,342 32,531 17,256 15,275 -1,981 53.0% 47.0%
Brown ** 44 444 16,046 5,889 9,892 265 36.7% 61.6% 1.7% 4,003 19,538 7,058 12,480 5,422 36.1% 63.9%
Butler ** 280 575 130,928 44,661 83,680 2,587 34.1% 63.9% 2.0% 39,019 160,920 54,185 106,735 52,550 33.7% 66.3%
Carroll ** 26 528 11,777 4,879 6,629 269 41.4% 56.3% 2.3% 1,750 13,721 6,190 7,531 1,341 45.1% 54.9%
Champaign 50 364 15,110 5,790 8,982 338 38.3% 59.4% 2.2% 3,192 18,184 6,752 11,432 4,680 37.1% 62.9%
Clark ** 112 601 55,762 27,309 27,142 1,311 49.0% 48.7% 2.4% -167 67,268 32,824 34,444 1,620 48.8% 51.2%
Clinton ** 36 496 14,592 4,667 9,608 317 32.0% 65.8% 2.2% 4,941 17,869 5,244 12,625 7,381 29.3% 70.7%
Columbn ** 103 467 42,766 20,251 21,319 1,196 47.4% 49.9% 2.8% 1,068 48,096 22,884 25,212 2,328 47.6% 52.4%
Crawford ** 67 318 18,544 6,584 11,443 517 35.5% 61.7% 2.8% 4,859 21,293 7,626 13,667 6,041 35.8% 64.2%
Cuyahoga ** 1506 431 542,427 341,479 184,689 16,259 63.0% 34.0% 3.0% -156,790 648,886 433,262 215,624 -217,638 66.8% 33.2%
Darke ** 53 482 22,517 7,568 14,512 437 33.6% 64.4% 1.9% 6,944 25,532 7,663 17,869 10,206 30.0% 70.0%
Defiance ** 46 385 15,659 6,022 9,282 355 38.5% 59.3% 2.3% 3,260 17,701 6,683 11,018 4,335 37.8% 62.2%
Delaware ** 111 709 53,595 16,696 35,723 1,176 31.2% 66.7% 2.2% 19,027 78,728 26,491 52,237 25,746 33.6% 66.4%
Fairfield ** 118 563 52,783 18,739 32,948 1,096 35.5% 62.4% 2.1% 14,209 66,378 24,321 42,057 17,736 36.6% 63.4%
Fayette ** 40 287 9,035 3,298 5,575 162 36.5% 61.7% 1.8% 2,277 11,465 4,244 7,221 2,977 37.0% 63.0%
Fulton ** 36 598 18,434 6,695 11,373 366 36.3% 61.7% 2.0% 4,678 21,541 8,098 13,443 5,345 37.6% 62.4%
Gallia ** 36 375 12,328 4,758 7,363 207 38.6% 59.7% 1.7% 2,605 13,508 5,188 8,320 3,132 38.4% 61.6%
Greene ** 140 544 62,074 23,892 36,669 1,513 38.5% 59.1% 2.4% 12,777 76,190 29,349 46,841 17,492 38.5% 61.5%
Guernsey ** 71 228 14,570 6,352 7,823 395 43.6% 53.7% 2.7% 1,471 16,167 7,072 9,095 2,023 43.7% 56.3%
Hamilton ** 1025 397 359,437 153,227 197,339 8,871 42.6% 54.9% 2.5% 44,112 406,595 190,956 215,639 24,683 47.0% 53.0%
Harrison ** 24 339 6,896 3,319 3,389 188 48.1% 49.1% 2.7% 70 8,142 3,824 4,318 494 47.0% 53.0%
Henry ** 33 448 12,936 4,278 8,407 251 33.1% 65.0% 1.9% 4,129 14,797 5,027 9,770 4,743 34.0% 66.0%
Highland ** 46 389 15,031 5,230 9,559 242 34.8% 63.6% 1.6% 4,329 17,883 6,012 11,871 5,859 33.6% 66.4%
Hocking ** 31 416 10,229 4,373 5,571 285 42.8% 54.5% 2.8% 1,198 12,886 6,065 6,821 756 47.1% 52.9%
Holmes ** 27 404 8,827 2,033 6,623 171 23.0% 75.0% 1.9% 4,590 10,921 2,622 8,299 5,677 24.0% 76.0%
Huron ** 69 361 20,649 8,011 12,085 553 38.8% 58.5% 2.7% 4,074 24,907 10,354 14,553 4,199 41.6% 58.4%
Jackson ** 40 348 12,120 5,052 6,847 221 41.7% 56.5% 1.8% 1,795 13,901 5,519 8,382 2,863 39.7% 60.3%
Jefferson ** 108 329 32,861 17,177 14,801 883 52.3% 45.0% 2.7% -2,376 35,561 18,674 16,887 -1,787 52.5% 47.5%
Lawrence ** 84 322 23,872 11,127 12,347 398 46.6% 51.7% 1.7% 1,220 27,052 11,874 15,178 3,304 43.9% 56.1%
Licking ** 139 557 60,811 22,797 36,537 1,477 37.5% 60.1% 2.4% 13,740 77,442 29,350 48,092 18,742 37.9% 62.1%
Logan ** 52 399 17,871 5,818 11,612 441 32.6% 65.0% 2.5% 5,794 20,728 6,644 14,084 7,440 32.1% 67.9%
Lorain ** 246 554 108,011 58,047 46,864 3,100 53.7% 43.4% 2.9% -11,183 136,263 76,512 59,751 -16,761 56.2% 43.8%
Madison ** 44 387 14,174 5,166 8,715 293 36.4% 61.5% 2.1% 3,549 17,011 6,080 10,931 4,851 35.7% 64.3%
Marion ** 90 314 24,009 10,097 13,335 577 42.1% 55.5% 2.4% 3,238 28,221 11,492 16,729 5,237 40.7% 59.3%
Medina ** 146 570 64,961 26,249 36,777 1,935 40.4% 56.6% 3.0% 10,528 83,224 35,725 47,499 11,774 42.9% 57.1%
Meigs ** 27 389 9,444 3,592 5,628 224 38.0% 59.6% 2.4% 2,036 10,490 4,334 6,156 1,822 41.3% 58.7%
Mercer ** 40 499 17,602 5,082 12,136 384 28.9% 68.9% 2.2% 7,054 19,946 4,924 15,022 10,098 24.7% 75.3%
Monroe ** 29 260 6,783 3,551 3,086 146 52.4% 45.5% 2.2% -465 7,534 4,164 3,370 -794 55.3% 44.7%
Montgomery 643 425 222,888 111,001 107,330 4,557 49.8% 48.2% 2.0% -3,671 272,978 138,262 134,716 -3,546 50.6% 49.4%
Morgan ** 22 296 5,834 2,242 3,419 173 38.4% 58.6% 3.0% 1,177 6,505 2,810 3,695 885 43.2% 56.8%
Morrow ** 36 443 12,498 4,470 7,727 301 35.8% 61.8% 2.4% 3,257 15,964 5,651 10,313 4,662 35.4% 64.6%
Muskingum 85 446 31,441 13,088 17,495 858 41.6% 55.6% 2.7% 4,407 37,951 16,050 21,901 5,851 42.3% 57.7%
Noble ** 27 238 5,832 2,277 3,401 154 39.0% 58.3% 2.6% 1,124 6,417 2,618 3,799 1,181 40.8% 59.2%
Paulding ** 30 321 8,698 3,331 5,129 238 38.3% 59.0% 2.7% 1,798 9,618 3,544 6,074 2,530 36.8% 63.2%
Perry ** 46 325 12,499 5,817 6,354 328 46.5% 50.8% 2.6% 537 14,972 7,205 7,767 562 48.1% 51.9%
Pike ** 24 510 10,228 4,819 5,237 172 47.1% 51.2% 1.7% 418 12,250 5,865 6,385 520 47.9% 52.1%
Portage ** 122 615 60,850 30,805 27,762 2,283 50.6% 45.6% 3.8% -3,043 74,969 39,915 35,054 -4,861 53.2% 46.8%
Preble ** 46 450 17,648 6,278 10,976 394 35.6% 62.2% 2.2% 4,698 20,677 7,165 13,512 6,347 34.7% 65.3%
Putnam ** 51 364 16,984 4,028 12,706 250 23.7% 74.8% 1.5% 8,678 18,544 4,348 14,196 9,848 23.4% 76.6%
Richland ** 131 460 50,980 20,110 29,592 1,278 39.4% 58.0% 2.5% 9,482 60,309 24,056 36,253 12,197 39.9% 60.1%
Scioto ** 107 321 30,020 13,706 15,730 584 45.7% 52.4% 1.9% 2,024 34,376 16,438 17,938 1,500 47.8% 52.2%
Seneca ** 73 362 23,706 9,381 13,671 654 39.6% 57.7% 2.8% 4,290 26,394 10,770 15,624 4,854 40.8% 59.2%
Shelby ** 67 331 19,107 6,485 12,240 382 33.9% 64.1% 2.0% 5,755 22,162 6,337 15,825 9,488 28.6% 71.4%
Stark ** 364 500 153,808 73,417 76,451 3,940 47.7% 49.7% 2.6% 3,034 182,154 92,295 89,859 -2,436 50.7% 49.3%
Summit ** 624 431 217,232 116,754 94,640 5,838 53.7% 43.6% 2.7% -22,114 269,081 152,897 116,184 -36,713 56.8% 43.2%
Trumbull ** 284 372 92,901 56,309 33,896 2,696 60.6% 36.5% 2.9% -22,413 105,541 65,321 40,220 -25,101 61.9% 38.1%
Tuscarawas 81 516 35,814 15,608 19,163 1,043 43.6% 53.5% 2.9% 3,555 41,819 18,460 23,359 4,899 44.1% 55.9%
Union ** 47 471 16,533 4,933 11,266 334 29.8% 68.1% 2.0% 6,333 22,139 6,546 15,593 9,047 29.6% 70.4%
Van Wert ** 39 372 12,823 4,122 8,489 212 32.1% 66.2% 1.7% 4,367 14,510 4,026 10,484 6,458 27.7% 72.3%
Vinton ** 20 290 4,799 2,011 2,679 109 41.9% 55.8% 2.3% 668 5,806 2,612 3,194 582 45.0% 55.0%
Warren ** 142 647 67,031 18,749 47,235 1,047 28.0% 70.5% 1.6% 28,486 91,922 25,399 66,523 41,124 27.6% 72.4%
Wayne ** 100 509 41,097 14,524 25,422 1,151 35.3% 61.9% 2.8% 10,898 50,888 19,455 31,433 11,978 38.2% 61.8%
Williams ** 44 406 15,292 5,322 9,632 338 34.8% 63.0% 2.2% 4,310 17,864 6,231 11,633 5,402 34.9% 65.1%
Wood ** 103 590 50,351 22,089 26,808 1,454 43.9% 53.2% 2.9% 4,719 60,790 28,216 32,574 4,358 46.4% 53.6%
Wyandot ** 40 263 9,471 3,307 5,979 185 34.9% 63.1% 2.0% 2,672 10,510 3,554 6,956 3,402 33.8% 66.2%
Total 8,897 443 3,280,744 1,535,204 1,661,821 83,719 46.8% 50.7% 2.6% 126,617 3,939,246 1,913,691 2,025,555 111,864 48.6% 51.4%