TruthIsAll
05-15-2008, 10:11 PM
A Preliminary 2008 True Vote Projection
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator.htm
The 2008 Election Calculator projects that Obama will win the True Vote in a landslide: 71-59m (54.1-44.7%). The model calculates the true vote based on vote shares applied to returning 2004 voters and the allocation of uncounted votes. But election fraud will reduce Obama’s recorded vote margin to 64-61m. The landslide will be denied, just like it was in the 2006 midterms in which the Democrats won 10-20 more seats than official results indicate. Obama is expected to do better than Kerry did in 2004 among blacks, Hispanics, new voters, moderate Republicans and Independents. He may not do as well among other, white Democrats. This analysis is based on an estimate of total votes cast; it does not include the millions of (mostly Democratic) disenfranchised voters.
In 2000 Al Gore won the recorded vote by 51.0-50.5m (48.4-47.9%). The Election Calculator determined that he won the True Vote by 55.3-51.4m (49.9-46.6%) which closely matched his 49.4% unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share. The U.S. Census reported that 110.8m total votes were cast in 2000 but only 105.4m were recorded. If not for 5.4m uncounted votes, Gore’s margin would have exceeded 3 million. In Florida, 185,000 spoiled ballots (not including absentee and provisional ballots) cost Gore 120,000 votes. He won the state by a minimum of 60,000 votes, but Bush won the recorded vote (and the Presidency) by 537.
In 2004 Bush won the recorded vote by 62-59m (50.7-48.3%). Once again, the Election Calculator determined that Kerry won the True Vote by 67-57m (53.2-45.4%). Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52.1-46.9% and the adjusted 12:22am Composite National Exit Poll by 50.8-48.2%. The analysis was based on 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares applied to an estimate of returning 2000 voters. The Census reported that 125.7m total votes were cast as opposed to the 122.3m recorded. Approximately 2.5m of the 3.4m discrepancy were Kerry votes. The Census figure was confirmed by investigative reporter Greg Palast who provided government records which indicated that 3.0m uncounted votes were a combination of provisional, absentee and spoiled ballots.
There is no reason to believe that 2008 will be any different than 2000 and 2004. At least 3% of total votes cast will be uncounted and 75-80% will be Obama’s.
The Sensitivity Analysis consists of two sets of tables.
They indicate Obama’s vote share and margin for 25 scenario combinations of:
1)Obama’s share of returning Kerry and Bush voters.
2)Obama’s share of returning Kerry and new voters (Did Not Vote in 2004).
Download the Excel file to run your own scenarios:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator.xls
[code]
DNV indicates did not vote in prior election
1996 2000 Calculated True Vote
Turnout Voted Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV - 15.0 13.5% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 96% 49.3 44.5% 86% 11% 3%
Dole 96% 37.3 33.7% 7% 91% 2%
Other 96% 9.2 8.3% 27% 61% 12%
Total 95.8 110.8 100% 49.9% 46.4% 3.7%
110.8 55.3 51.4 4.1
Recorded 105.4 51.0 50.5 3.9
48.4% 47.9% 3.7%
Exit Poll 49.4% 46.9% 3.7%
TV Diff -0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
2000 2004 Calculated True Vote
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.6 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.7 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.6 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.8 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
125.7 66.9 57.1 1.7
Recorded 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Exit Poll 52.1% 46.9% 1.0%
TV Diff -1.1% 1.5% -0.4%
2004 2008 Calculated True Vote
Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%
Total 113.7 130.9 100% 70.8 58.5 1.6
54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
Recorded 126.0 64.0 61.0 1.0
(estimated) 50.8% 48.4% 0.8%
2008 UNCOUNTED AND SWITCHED VOTES
Total Votes Cast: 131m
Uncounted (UV): 3.9m (3%)
Recorded: 127.1m
Obama
True Vote 70.8m
Uncounted -3.0 (-4.2%)
-------------
Net 67.8m
Switched -3.9 (-5.5%)
-------------
Recorded 63.9m (90.3%)
McCain
True Vote 58.5m
Uncounted -1.0 (-1.7%)
-------------
Net 57.5m
Switched +3.9 (6.7%)
-------------
Recorded 61.4m (105%)
Other
True Vote 1.6m
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Obama share
of Kerry
voters Obama Share of Bush voters
54.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0%
Obama National Vote
93% 55.1% 55.5% 55.9% 56.3% 56.7%
91% 54.2% 54.6% 55.0% 55.3% 55.7%
89% 53.2% 53.6% 54.0% 54.4% 54.8%
87% 52.3% 52.7% 53.1% 53.5% 53.9%
85% 51.4% 51.8% 52.2% 52.6% 53.0%
Obama Margin (millions)
93% 14.9 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.1
91% 12.5 13.5 14.6 15.6 16.6
89% 10.1 11.1 12.2 13.2 14.2
87% 7.7 8.7 9.7 10.8 11.8
85% 5.3 6.3 7.3 8.3 9.4
Obama share of
Kerry New voters
Voters 55% 57% 59% 61% 63%
Obama National Vote
93% 55.4% 55.6% 55.9% 56.1% 56.4%
91% 54.4% 54.7% 55.0% 55.2% 55.5%
89% 53.5% 53.8% 54.0% 54.3% 54.6%
87% 52.6% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4% 53.6%
85% 51.7% 51.9% 52.2% 52.4% 52.7%
Obama Margin (millions)
93% 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.4
91% 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.3 16.0
89% 10.8 11.5 12.2 12.8 13.5
87% 8.4 9.0 9.7 10.4 11.1
85% 5.9 6.6 7.3 8.0 8.7
2008 Pre-election Polling
May 23
These are the latest RCP pre-election state polling averages for 19 states.
Obama leads McCain in the electoral vote by 187-90.
Obama leads by 45.5-43.5% (unweighted average)
On an EV-weighted average basis, he leads by 45.9-43.1%
Converting to a 2-party equivalent, it’s 51.6-48.4%
Obama's lead is beyond the 4% margin of error in 5 of the 19 states:
MN, NJ, OR, WA, CA
States most likely to be targeted for flipping by the GOP:
OH, FL, MI, WI, IA, PA, NH, NM, VA, NC, CO, MO
The more things change…sound familiar?
It’s very early to place too much faith in the polls.
But the fact that Obama has not yet officially clinched
the nomination and yet has a solid lead in the critical
battleground states portends a landslide victory.
Obama’s lead will surely grow once the focus turns to the general election.
Avg Poll Electoral Vote Exceed
EV McCain Obama McCain Obama Diff MoE?
Avg 277 43.5 45.5 90 187 -2.0 7
OH 20 42.7 44.0 0 20 -1.3
PA 21 40.5 46.3 0 21 -5.8
FL 27 48.3 40.0 27 0 8.3 yes
WI 10 41.7 47.3 0 10 -5.6
IA 7 41.7 47.3 0 7 -5.6
MN 10 39.7 50.7 0 10 -11.0 yes
MO 11 48.0 45.0 11 0 3.0
NM 5 44.0 44.0 0 5 0.0
NV 5 46.0 40.0 5 0 6.0
CO 9 42.0 48.0 0 9 -6.0
MI 17 43.7 44.3 0 17 -0.6
NH 4 44.7 43.3 4 0 1.4
NJ 15 40.0 49.3 0 15 -9.3 yes
VA 13 44.3 43.0 13 0 1.3
NC 15 48.0 42.3 15 0 5.7
GA 15 53.7 40.0 15 0 13.7 yes
OR 7 39.3 49.7 0 7 -10.4 yes
WA 11 39.7 49.7 0 11 -10.0 yes
CA 55 39.0 50.5 0 55 -11.5 yes
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator.htm
The 2008 Election Calculator projects that Obama will win the True Vote in a landslide: 71-59m (54.1-44.7%). The model calculates the true vote based on vote shares applied to returning 2004 voters and the allocation of uncounted votes. But election fraud will reduce Obama’s recorded vote margin to 64-61m. The landslide will be denied, just like it was in the 2006 midterms in which the Democrats won 10-20 more seats than official results indicate. Obama is expected to do better than Kerry did in 2004 among blacks, Hispanics, new voters, moderate Republicans and Independents. He may not do as well among other, white Democrats. This analysis is based on an estimate of total votes cast; it does not include the millions of (mostly Democratic) disenfranchised voters.
In 2000 Al Gore won the recorded vote by 51.0-50.5m (48.4-47.9%). The Election Calculator determined that he won the True Vote by 55.3-51.4m (49.9-46.6%) which closely matched his 49.4% unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share. The U.S. Census reported that 110.8m total votes were cast in 2000 but only 105.4m were recorded. If not for 5.4m uncounted votes, Gore’s margin would have exceeded 3 million. In Florida, 185,000 spoiled ballots (not including absentee and provisional ballots) cost Gore 120,000 votes. He won the state by a minimum of 60,000 votes, but Bush won the recorded vote (and the Presidency) by 537.
In 2004 Bush won the recorded vote by 62-59m (50.7-48.3%). Once again, the Election Calculator determined that Kerry won the True Vote by 67-57m (53.2-45.4%). Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52.1-46.9% and the adjusted 12:22am Composite National Exit Poll by 50.8-48.2%. The analysis was based on 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares applied to an estimate of returning 2000 voters. The Census reported that 125.7m total votes were cast as opposed to the 122.3m recorded. Approximately 2.5m of the 3.4m discrepancy were Kerry votes. The Census figure was confirmed by investigative reporter Greg Palast who provided government records which indicated that 3.0m uncounted votes were a combination of provisional, absentee and spoiled ballots.
There is no reason to believe that 2008 will be any different than 2000 and 2004. At least 3% of total votes cast will be uncounted and 75-80% will be Obama’s.
The Sensitivity Analysis consists of two sets of tables.
They indicate Obama’s vote share and margin for 25 scenario combinations of:
1)Obama’s share of returning Kerry and Bush voters.
2)Obama’s share of returning Kerry and new voters (Did Not Vote in 2004).
Download the Excel file to run your own scenarios:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator.xls
[code]
DNV indicates did not vote in prior election
1996 2000 Calculated True Vote
Turnout Voted Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV - 15.0 13.5% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 96% 49.3 44.5% 86% 11% 3%
Dole 96% 37.3 33.7% 7% 91% 2%
Other 96% 9.2 8.3% 27% 61% 12%
Total 95.8 110.8 100% 49.9% 46.4% 3.7%
110.8 55.3 51.4 4.1
Recorded 105.4 51.0 50.5 3.9
48.4% 47.9% 3.7%
Exit Poll 49.4% 46.9% 3.7%
TV Diff -0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
2000 2004 Calculated True Vote
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.6 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.7 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.6 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.8 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
125.7 66.9 57.1 1.7
Recorded 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Exit Poll 52.1% 46.9% 1.0%
TV Diff -1.1% 1.5% -0.4%
2004 2008 Calculated True Vote
Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%
Total 113.7 130.9 100% 70.8 58.5 1.6
54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
Recorded 126.0 64.0 61.0 1.0
(estimated) 50.8% 48.4% 0.8%
2008 UNCOUNTED AND SWITCHED VOTES
Total Votes Cast: 131m
Uncounted (UV): 3.9m (3%)
Recorded: 127.1m
Obama
True Vote 70.8m
Uncounted -3.0 (-4.2%)
-------------
Net 67.8m
Switched -3.9 (-5.5%)
-------------
Recorded 63.9m (90.3%)
McCain
True Vote 58.5m
Uncounted -1.0 (-1.7%)
-------------
Net 57.5m
Switched +3.9 (6.7%)
-------------
Recorded 61.4m (105%)
Other
True Vote 1.6m
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Obama share
of Kerry
voters Obama Share of Bush voters
54.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0%
Obama National Vote
93% 55.1% 55.5% 55.9% 56.3% 56.7%
91% 54.2% 54.6% 55.0% 55.3% 55.7%
89% 53.2% 53.6% 54.0% 54.4% 54.8%
87% 52.3% 52.7% 53.1% 53.5% 53.9%
85% 51.4% 51.8% 52.2% 52.6% 53.0%
Obama Margin (millions)
93% 14.9 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.1
91% 12.5 13.5 14.6 15.6 16.6
89% 10.1 11.1 12.2 13.2 14.2
87% 7.7 8.7 9.7 10.8 11.8
85% 5.3 6.3 7.3 8.3 9.4
Obama share of
Kerry New voters
Voters 55% 57% 59% 61% 63%
Obama National Vote
93% 55.4% 55.6% 55.9% 56.1% 56.4%
91% 54.4% 54.7% 55.0% 55.2% 55.5%
89% 53.5% 53.8% 54.0% 54.3% 54.6%
87% 52.6% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4% 53.6%
85% 51.7% 51.9% 52.2% 52.4% 52.7%
Obama Margin (millions)
93% 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.4
91% 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.3 16.0
89% 10.8 11.5 12.2 12.8 13.5
87% 8.4 9.0 9.7 10.4 11.1
85% 5.9 6.6 7.3 8.0 8.7
2008 Pre-election Polling
May 23
These are the latest RCP pre-election state polling averages for 19 states.
Obama leads McCain in the electoral vote by 187-90.
Obama leads by 45.5-43.5% (unweighted average)
On an EV-weighted average basis, he leads by 45.9-43.1%
Converting to a 2-party equivalent, it’s 51.6-48.4%
Obama's lead is beyond the 4% margin of error in 5 of the 19 states:
MN, NJ, OR, WA, CA
States most likely to be targeted for flipping by the GOP:
OH, FL, MI, WI, IA, PA, NH, NM, VA, NC, CO, MO
The more things change…sound familiar?
It’s very early to place too much faith in the polls.
But the fact that Obama has not yet officially clinched
the nomination and yet has a solid lead in the critical
battleground states portends a landslide victory.
Obama’s lead will surely grow once the focus turns to the general election.
Avg Poll Electoral Vote Exceed
EV McCain Obama McCain Obama Diff MoE?
Avg 277 43.5 45.5 90 187 -2.0 7
OH 20 42.7 44.0 0 20 -1.3
PA 21 40.5 46.3 0 21 -5.8
FL 27 48.3 40.0 27 0 8.3 yes
WI 10 41.7 47.3 0 10 -5.6
IA 7 41.7 47.3 0 7 -5.6
MN 10 39.7 50.7 0 10 -11.0 yes
MO 11 48.0 45.0 11 0 3.0
NM 5 44.0 44.0 0 5 0.0
NV 5 46.0 40.0 5 0 6.0
CO 9 42.0 48.0 0 9 -6.0
MI 17 43.7 44.3 0 17 -0.6
NH 4 44.7 43.3 4 0 1.4
NJ 15 40.0 49.3 0 15 -9.3 yes
VA 13 44.3 43.0 13 0 1.3
NC 15 48.0 42.3 15 0 5.7
GA 15 53.7 40.0 15 0 13.7 yes
OR 7 39.3 49.7 0 7 -10.4 yes
WA 11 39.7 49.7 0 11 -10.0 yes
CA 55 39.0 50.5 0 55 -11.5 yes