TruthIsAll
03-17-2009, 08:24 AM
In 1988-2008, the Democratic Presidential True Vote was 4% higher than the Recorded Vote
TruthIsAll
April 10, 2009
In the six presidential elections since 1988, Democratic candidates had an average 47.9-46.0% official vote margin (6.1% to third parties). But they did better than that. The Election Calculator determines a feasible (and plausible) number of returning voters as the basis for calculating the True Vote. The model indicates that the Democrats won the 1988-2008 True Vote by 52.0-42.3%. How does the model derive the True Vote? It is quite straightforward.
The first step is to estimate the number of prior election voters who return to vote in the current election. The U.S Census provides total votes cast (recorded plus uncounted votes). Based on historical data, approximately 75% of uncounted votes are Democratic.
These are the calculations:
1) Prior election total votes cast is reduced by the annual voter mortality rate.
2) Prior election voter turnout in the current election is estimated.
3) National Exit Poll shares of new and returning voters are applied to determine the True Vote.
The Final National Exit Poll returning voter mix and/or the vote shares is always adjusted in order to match the recorded vote. This is standard procedure. But it assumes that the prior and current elections are fraud-free. In 2004 and 2008, the Final NEP implied that the number of returning Bush voters was at least 5 million more than those still living. Since an impossible number of Bush voters were required to match the recorded vote, the official vote counts were also impossible.
In the 2008 True Vote calculation, the unadjusted 2004 state exit poll aggregate (Kerry 52-47%) was used to calculate the returning voter mix - not the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). Had the 2004 recorded vote been used, Obama’s vote share would be 2% lower. Uncounted votes were estimated as 3% of total votes cast since the Census Bureau has not yet released 2008 election voting data. In addition exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky have not released their 2008 report, therefore unadjusted state exit poll data is also not available.
The 2004 True Vote calculation assumes preliminary 12:22am NEP shares. Using the Final NEP shares, Kerry’s True Vote would be approximately 1% lower.
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1988- 2008 SUMMARY STATISTICS
Calculated True Vote Exit Poll Recorded Vote True Vote WPE Diff
Dem Rep Margin Dem Rep Margin Dem Rep Margin Margin Rec-EP Calc-EP
Average 52.02% 42.31% 9.71% 49.42% 43.42% 6.00% 47.90% 45.96% 1.94% 11.56 -5.12% 2.42%
2008 57.2% 41.1% 16.1% na na na 52.9% 45.6% 7.2% 21.84 na na
2004 53.1% 45.6% 7.5% 52.0% 47.0% 5.0% 48.3% 50.7% -2.5% 9.39 -7.5% 2.5%
2000 49.2% 46.4% 2.8% 49.4% 46.2% 3.2% 48.4% 47.9% 0.5% 3.12 -2.7% -0.4%
1996 52.2% 39.1% 13.0% 50.2% 39.5% 10.7% 49.2% 40.7% 8.5% 13.70 -2.2% 2.3%
1992 50.6% 32.5% 18.0% 45.7% 35.2% 10.5% 43.0% 37.4% 5.6% 20.54 -4.9% 7.5%
1988 49.8% 49.1% 0.8% 49.8% 49.2% 0.6% 45.6% 53.4% -7.7% 0.78 -8.3% 0.2%
1988- 2004 SUMMARY STATISTICS
1988-2004 Avg Total Dem Rep Other Margin Dem Rep Other Margin
Calculated 111.53 56.92 47.41 7.20 9.50 51.0% 42.5% 6.5% 8.4%
Recorded 104.00 48.83 47.94 7.23 0.89 46.9% 46.0% 7.1% 0.9%
Prelim EP 104.00 51.47 45.21 7.33 6.26 49.4% 43.4% 7.2% 6.0%
Discrepancies
Calc - Recorded 7.53 8.09 -0.53 -0.03 8.61 4.1% -3.5% -0.6% 7.5%
Calc - ExitP 5.45 2.20 -0.12 3.24 1.6% -0.9% -0.7% 2.4%
ExitP- Recorded 2.64 -2.73 0.09 5.37 2.5% -2.6% 0.1% 5.1%
2008 Calculated Vote
2004 ExitP Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 19.32 14.3% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 63.59 1.79 65.38 3.14 62.25 97% 60.38 44.6% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 57.47 1.62 59.09 2.84 56.26 97% 54.57 40.3% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.23 0.03 1.26 0.06 1.20 97% 1.17 0.86% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.30 3.45 125.74 6.04 119.70 116.1 135.43 100% 57.22% 41.11% 1.67%
Cast 135.43 77.50 55.68 2.26
Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98
2004 Calculated Vote
2000 Recd Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23.48 18.7% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.00 4.06 55.06 2.69 52.37 97% 50.80 40.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 50.46 1.19 51.65 2.52 49.13 97% 47.66 37.9% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.95 0.16 4.12 0.20 3.91 97% 3.80 3.02% 64% 17% 19%
Total 105.42 5.41 110.83 5.41 105.42 102.26 125.74 100% 53.14% 45.51% 1.35%
Cast 125.74 66.81 57.23 1.70
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23
2000 Calculated Vote
1996 Recd Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV 16.00 14.4% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 47.40 6.56 53.96 2.68 51.28 95% 48.72 44.0% 82% 15% 3%
Dole 39.20 1.57 40.77 2.02 38.75 95% 36.81 33.2% 7% 91% 2%
Other 9.68 0.61 10.29 0.51 9.78 95% 9.29 8.38% 40% 40% 20%
Total 96.28 8.75 105.02 5.21 99.81 94.8 110.83 100% 49.23% 46.38% 4.38%
Cast 110.83 54.56 51.41 4.86
Recorded 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
105.42 51.00 50.46 3.95
1996 Calculated Vote
1992 Recd Unct Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Clinton Dole Other
DNV 7.71 7.3% 54% 34% 12%
Clinton 44.91 7.08 51.99 2.62 49.37 90% 44.44 42.3% 85% 9% 6%
Bush 39.11 0.94 40.05 2.02 38.03 90% 34.23 32.6% 13% 82% 5%
Other 20.41 1.42 21.83 1.10 20.73 90% 18.65 17.76% 45% 35% 20%
Total 104.43 9.45 113.87 5.74 108.13 97.3 105.02 100% 52.16% 39.24% 8.60%
Cast 105.02 54.78 41.21 9.03
Recorded 49.23% 40.72% 10.05%
96.28 47.40 39.20 9.68
1992 Calculated Vote
1988 Recd Unct Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Clinton Bush Other
DNV 19.82 17.4% 46% 32% 22%
Dukakis 41.81 7.95 49.76 2.55 47.21 97% 45.79 40.2% 83% 5% 12%
Bush 48.89 2.65 51.54 2.64 48.90 97% 47.43 41.7% 21% 59% 20%
Other 0.90 0.00 0.90 0.05 0.85 97% 0.83 0.73% 50% 50% 0%
Total 91.60 10.60 102.19 5.23 96.96 94.1 113.88 100% 50.50% 32.52% 16.99%
Cast 113.88 57.50 37.03 19.34
Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54%
104.42 44.91 39.11 20.41
Vote 1988 Calculated
1984 Recd Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Dukakis Bush Other
DNV 11.40 11.2% 47% 51% 2%
Mondale 37.58 5.91 43.49 2.26 41.22 94% 38.75 37.9% 92% 7% 1%
Reagan 54.46 3.94 58.40 3.04 55.36 94% 52.04 50.9% 19% 80% 1%
Other 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 94% 0.00 0.0% 50% 50% 0%
Total 92.04 9.84 101.88 5.30 96.59 90.79 102.19 100% 49.81% 49.08% 1.11%
Cast 102.19 50.90 50.16 1.14
Recorded 45.65% 53.37% 0.98%
91.595 41.809 48.887 0.899
TruthIsAll
April 10, 2009
In the six presidential elections since 1988, Democratic candidates had an average 47.9-46.0% official vote margin (6.1% to third parties). But they did better than that. The Election Calculator determines a feasible (and plausible) number of returning voters as the basis for calculating the True Vote. The model indicates that the Democrats won the 1988-2008 True Vote by 52.0-42.3%. How does the model derive the True Vote? It is quite straightforward.
The first step is to estimate the number of prior election voters who return to vote in the current election. The U.S Census provides total votes cast (recorded plus uncounted votes). Based on historical data, approximately 75% of uncounted votes are Democratic.
These are the calculations:
1) Prior election total votes cast is reduced by the annual voter mortality rate.
2) Prior election voter turnout in the current election is estimated.
3) National Exit Poll shares of new and returning voters are applied to determine the True Vote.
The Final National Exit Poll returning voter mix and/or the vote shares is always adjusted in order to match the recorded vote. This is standard procedure. But it assumes that the prior and current elections are fraud-free. In 2004 and 2008, the Final NEP implied that the number of returning Bush voters was at least 5 million more than those still living. Since an impossible number of Bush voters were required to match the recorded vote, the official vote counts were also impossible.
In the 2008 True Vote calculation, the unadjusted 2004 state exit poll aggregate (Kerry 52-47%) was used to calculate the returning voter mix - not the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). Had the 2004 recorded vote been used, Obama’s vote share would be 2% lower. Uncounted votes were estimated as 3% of total votes cast since the Census Bureau has not yet released 2008 election voting data. In addition exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky have not released their 2008 report, therefore unadjusted state exit poll data is also not available.
The 2004 True Vote calculation assumes preliminary 12:22am NEP shares. Using the Final NEP shares, Kerry’s True Vote would be approximately 1% lower.
[code]
1988- 2008 SUMMARY STATISTICS
Calculated True Vote Exit Poll Recorded Vote True Vote WPE Diff
Dem Rep Margin Dem Rep Margin Dem Rep Margin Margin Rec-EP Calc-EP
Average 52.02% 42.31% 9.71% 49.42% 43.42% 6.00% 47.90% 45.96% 1.94% 11.56 -5.12% 2.42%
2008 57.2% 41.1% 16.1% na na na 52.9% 45.6% 7.2% 21.84 na na
2004 53.1% 45.6% 7.5% 52.0% 47.0% 5.0% 48.3% 50.7% -2.5% 9.39 -7.5% 2.5%
2000 49.2% 46.4% 2.8% 49.4% 46.2% 3.2% 48.4% 47.9% 0.5% 3.12 -2.7% -0.4%
1996 52.2% 39.1% 13.0% 50.2% 39.5% 10.7% 49.2% 40.7% 8.5% 13.70 -2.2% 2.3%
1992 50.6% 32.5% 18.0% 45.7% 35.2% 10.5% 43.0% 37.4% 5.6% 20.54 -4.9% 7.5%
1988 49.8% 49.1% 0.8% 49.8% 49.2% 0.6% 45.6% 53.4% -7.7% 0.78 -8.3% 0.2%
1988- 2004 SUMMARY STATISTICS
1988-2004 Avg Total Dem Rep Other Margin Dem Rep Other Margin
Calculated 111.53 56.92 47.41 7.20 9.50 51.0% 42.5% 6.5% 8.4%
Recorded 104.00 48.83 47.94 7.23 0.89 46.9% 46.0% 7.1% 0.9%
Prelim EP 104.00 51.47 45.21 7.33 6.26 49.4% 43.4% 7.2% 6.0%
Discrepancies
Calc - Recorded 7.53 8.09 -0.53 -0.03 8.61 4.1% -3.5% -0.6% 7.5%
Calc - ExitP 5.45 2.20 -0.12 3.24 1.6% -0.9% -0.7% 2.4%
ExitP- Recorded 2.64 -2.73 0.09 5.37 2.5% -2.6% 0.1% 5.1%
2008 Calculated Vote
2004 ExitP Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 19.32 14.3% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 63.59 1.79 65.38 3.14 62.25 97% 60.38 44.6% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 57.47 1.62 59.09 2.84 56.26 97% 54.57 40.3% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.23 0.03 1.26 0.06 1.20 97% 1.17 0.86% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.30 3.45 125.74 6.04 119.70 116.1 135.43 100% 57.22% 41.11% 1.67%
Cast 135.43 77.50 55.68 2.26
Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98
2004 Calculated Vote
2000 Recd Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23.48 18.7% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.00 4.06 55.06 2.69 52.37 97% 50.80 40.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 50.46 1.19 51.65 2.52 49.13 97% 47.66 37.9% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.95 0.16 4.12 0.20 3.91 97% 3.80 3.02% 64% 17% 19%
Total 105.42 5.41 110.83 5.41 105.42 102.26 125.74 100% 53.14% 45.51% 1.35%
Cast 125.74 66.81 57.23 1.70
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23
2000 Calculated Vote
1996 Recd Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV 16.00 14.4% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 47.40 6.56 53.96 2.68 51.28 95% 48.72 44.0% 82% 15% 3%
Dole 39.20 1.57 40.77 2.02 38.75 95% 36.81 33.2% 7% 91% 2%
Other 9.68 0.61 10.29 0.51 9.78 95% 9.29 8.38% 40% 40% 20%
Total 96.28 8.75 105.02 5.21 99.81 94.8 110.83 100% 49.23% 46.38% 4.38%
Cast 110.83 54.56 51.41 4.86
Recorded 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
105.42 51.00 50.46 3.95
1996 Calculated Vote
1992 Recd Unct Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Clinton Dole Other
DNV 7.71 7.3% 54% 34% 12%
Clinton 44.91 7.08 51.99 2.62 49.37 90% 44.44 42.3% 85% 9% 6%
Bush 39.11 0.94 40.05 2.02 38.03 90% 34.23 32.6% 13% 82% 5%
Other 20.41 1.42 21.83 1.10 20.73 90% 18.65 17.76% 45% 35% 20%
Total 104.43 9.45 113.87 5.74 108.13 97.3 105.02 100% 52.16% 39.24% 8.60%
Cast 105.02 54.78 41.21 9.03
Recorded 49.23% 40.72% 10.05%
96.28 47.40 39.20 9.68
1992 Calculated Vote
1988 Recd Unct Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Clinton Bush Other
DNV 19.82 17.4% 46% 32% 22%
Dukakis 41.81 7.95 49.76 2.55 47.21 97% 45.79 40.2% 83% 5% 12%
Bush 48.89 2.65 51.54 2.64 48.90 97% 47.43 41.7% 21% 59% 20%
Other 0.90 0.00 0.90 0.05 0.85 97% 0.83 0.73% 50% 50% 0%
Total 91.60 10.60 102.19 5.23 96.96 94.1 113.88 100% 50.50% 32.52% 16.99%
Cast 113.88 57.50 37.03 19.34
Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54%
104.42 44.91 39.11 20.41
Vote 1988 Calculated
1984 Recd Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Dukakis Bush Other
DNV 11.40 11.2% 47% 51% 2%
Mondale 37.58 5.91 43.49 2.26 41.22 94% 38.75 37.9% 92% 7% 1%
Reagan 54.46 3.94 58.40 3.04 55.36 94% 52.04 50.9% 19% 80% 1%
Other 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 94% 0.00 0.0% 50% 50% 0%
Total 92.04 9.84 101.88 5.30 96.59 90.79 102.19 100% 49.81% 49.08% 1.11%
Cast 102.19 50.90 50.16 1.14
Recorded 45.65% 53.37% 0.98%
91.595 41.809 48.887 0.899