A Graphic Debunking of Election Myths (TIA)

TruthIsAll

August 10, 2009

THE MYTHS
1 The recorded (official) vote is sacrosanct and equal to the True Vote.
2 Bush 48% approval is not a valid indicator that the election was stolen.
3 2004 pre-election polls did not match the exit polls.
4 2004 Election model projection assumptions were wrong.
5 Bush led the 2004 pre-election polls.

6 Exit polls are not random samples.
7 Reluctant Bush Responder (rBr) explains the 2004 exit poll discrepancies.
8 Bush won by increasing his vote share in Democratic strongholds(Urban Legend).
9 Swing vs. Red-shift: No correlation "kills the fraud argument".
10 False Recall explains the 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix in the Final NEP.

11 Exit poll discrepancies were not due to voting machines/methods.
12 Assumptions used in calculating the True Vote were invalid.
13 Bush won the late voters the early exit polls missed.
14 Mid-term Generic polls are not a good predictor.
15 Hillary and Obama split the popular vote in the primaries.
16 Obama won by 9.5 million votes with a 52.9% share.


http://www.RichardCharnin.com/FurtherConfirmationOfaKerryLandslide.htm

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Myth - The recorded (official) vote is sacrosanct and is equal to the True Vote.

Fact - In every election there are millions of net uncounted votes (uncounted less stuffed ballots).
Fact - Net Uncounted Votes = Total Cast - Recorded
Fact - In order to match the recorded vote,the Final National Exit Polls (1968, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008) required that returning Nixon and Bush voter turnout exceed 100% (i.e. there were millions of phantom voters).
Fact - Using total votes cast and feasible returning voter turnout, average historical Democratic True Share exceeded the official share by 4.7%.

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculator614test_26851_image001.gif

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel6808_31026_image001.gif

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel6808_8076_image001.gif

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel6808_8143_image001.gif



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Myth - Bush 48% approval is not a valid indicator that the election was stolen.

Fact - In every election since 1972, the incumbent won re-election if his approval
rating exceeded 50%.
Fact - Bush was the ONLY incumbent with approval below 50% to win re-election!
Fact - Bush monthly pre-election approval was highly correlated to the national polls.
Fact - Average incumbent approval EXACTLY matched the average True vote (46.5%)!

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/Poll2004Comparison_12443_image001.png

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/BushRatingStates_5318_image001.gif

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/VoteVsApprovalRegression_7284_image001.gif

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Myth - 2004 pre-election polls did not match the exit polls.

Fact - After adjusting for undecided voters, the average of the pre-election state
and national polls matched the corresponding unadjusted exit poll.

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/InteractiveElectionSimulation_12255_image001.png

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/DEVPreActExitAct_11313_image001.png

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Myth - 2004 Election model projection assumptions were wrong

Fact - the base case assumption was that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote.
But a sensitivity analysis showed that he won with 50%.
Fact - Historically challengers have won undecideds over 80% of the time.
Fact - Gallup assigned 90% of undecided voters to Kerry.

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image004.png
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Myth - Bush led the pre-election polls.

Fact - Kerry had a 1% lead in the final pre-election polls before undecided voters
were allocated; he led by 3% after allocation.
Fact - Kerry led Register Voter polls by a higher margin than Likely Voter polls.
Fact - Registered Voter pre-election polls were more accurate than LV polls.
Fact - There were 22 million new voters. Kerry won 57-60% of new voters.

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image001.png

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image005.png

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image008.png

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/RCP2004_17095_image001.png
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Myth - Exit polls are not random samples; the margin of error is high.

Fact - Exit pollster notes to the National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) indicate
that voters were RANDOMLY SELECTED as they exited the voting booths.
Fact - the pollsters STATED that the National Exit Poll MoE was 1.0%.


http://www.RichardCharnin.com/exitpolls_us_110204.gif
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Myth - Reluctant Bush Responder (rBr) explains the exit poll discrepancies

Fact - The Final National Exit Poll indicated that returning Bush voters comprised
43% of the electorate and only 37% were Gore voters.
Fact - Bush needed 55% of non-responders to match his vote. He had 47% of responders.
Fact - Exit poll response was HIGH in strong Bush states and LOW in Kerry states.

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/RBRProbSENS_22629_image001.png

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/StateVotevsExitPollCompletionRate1_27680_image001.gif

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/ProbMajVote_18791_image001.gif
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Myth - Bush GAINED vote share from 2000 to 2004 in DEMOCRATIC Urban locations.

Fact - He LOST vote share in REPUBLICAN rural areas and small towns.
Fact - The strong 0.61 CORRELATION between county size and percentage increase in the Bush vote is a clear indication of fraud and debunks the Urban Legend myth.

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/TIACountyVoteDatabase_24111_image001.gif

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/TIACountyVoteDatabase_14517_image001.gif

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/2004UrbanLegend_10764_image001.png
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Myth: Zero correlation between Swing and Red-shift "kills the fraud argument".

Fact - Swing is the change in Bush RECORDED vote share from 2000 to 2004. It is an
incorrect measure. TRUE VOTE Swing, based on total votes CAST, should be used.
Fact - The correlation between TRUE vote swing and recorded red-shift was
significantly NEGATIVE.

Correlation Summary:
Recorded Swing vs. Recorded Red-shift: -0.05
True Swing vs. True Red shift: -0.34
Recorded Swing vs. True Red-shift: -0.56
True Swing vs. Recorded Red-shift: -0.44

Fact - Kathy Dopp of U.S. Count Votes proved that it is not NECESSARY that there be a CORRELATION between swing and red-shift for fraud to occur; the assertion was logically false.

Fact - In 2000 there were 110.8 million votes cast and 105.4 million recorded.
Fact - In 2004 there were 125.7 million votes cast and 122.3 million recorded.
Fact - From 70-80% of uncounted votes were for Gore and Kerry.

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculator614test_10497_image001.gif

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculator614test_image001.gif
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Myth - False Recall explains the 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix in the Final National Exit Poll.

Fact - This assumes that the recorded vote is the baseline.
Fact - Gore won the recorded vote in 2000 by 540,000.
Fact - There is no evidence to suggest Gore voters forgot or were motivated to lie.
Fact - Retrospective surveys matched the True Vote when total votes CAST were used.

In 1968-2008, the average NES winning margin was 11.43%.
The average True Vote winning margin was 10.63%.
The average True Vote winning share deviated by 0.40% from NES.
The average Democratic True winning share deviated by 0.70%.
The average Republican True winning share deviated by 0.46%.

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/NESMargin_TrueRecall.gif

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/NESMargin.gif
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Myth- Exit poll discrepancies were not due to voting machines/methods.

Fact - Lever machines had the highest error (WPE) rates (11%).
Paper ballots had the lowest (2%) rate.
Touch screens and optical scanners had a 7% rate.

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/TIACountyVoteDatabase_9758_image001.gif

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Myth - Assumptions used in the True Vote model were invalid

Fact - The Final was FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE.
Fact - The 43/37 returning Bush/Gore voter mix was IMPOSSIBLE.
Fact - The mix required over 6 million PHANTOM Bush voters
Fact - The Final also adjusted corresponding Bush vote shares to implausible levels.
Fact - A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS for various vote share assumptions showed that Kerry won all plausible scenarios.

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/2004ElectionCalculator_2846_image001.png

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/2004s.png

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculator614test_15742_image001.gif
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Myth - Bush late voters missed by the early exit polls.

Fact - Kerry won 55% of the final 6 million votes recorded after election day.
Fact - The National Exit Poll time line (4pm, 730pm, 1222am)had Kerry winning by 3%. Fact - The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate had Kerry winning by 5%.

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/ElectionCalculator_30464_image001.png
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2006 Midterms

Myth - Mid term Generic polls are not a good predictor of the Recorded Vote.

Fact - That is correct. But they accurately predict the TRUE VOTE.
Fact - The Generic 120 pre-election poll trend had the Democrats winning with 56.4%.
Fast - The Democrats won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate with 56.4%.

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/Election2006_16921_image001.png

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/Election2006Final1105a_21869_image001.png
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2008 Primaries

Myth - Hillary and Obama were close in the popular vote.

Fact - Pre-election and exit polls showed Obama to be the winner in the NH primary.
Fact - Hillary finished third in the Iowas Caucus behind John Edwards.
Fact - Super Tuesday exit polls showed Obama to be the clear winner.
Fact - Rush Limbaugh called for an "Operation Chaos" to get Republicans to cross
over and vote for Clinton. It worked.

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/2008PrimariesRealClear_32681_image001.png

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/SuperTuesdayExitPollVsFinal_27326_image001.png

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2008

Myth - Obama won by 9.5 million votes with a 52.9% share.

Fact - A True Vote analysis shows Obama won by at least double his recorded margin.
Fact - Final National Exit Poll vote shares were used with a revised, feasible mix
of returning Bush and Kerry voters.
Fact - Obama won by 22 million assuming 2004 was FRAUDULENT (Kerry won by 52-47%).
Fact - Obama won by 17 million assuming ZERO FRAUD (Bush won by 3.0 million).

http://www.RichardCharnin.com/2008ElectionCalculator_21811_image001.gif