Exposing Endemic Election Fraud: A Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)

In the first game of the 1954 World Series, Willie Mays made a miracle over-the-head
catch. He implicitly calculated the mathematical trajectory of the ball at the crack
of the bat using his built-in computer.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/mayscatch.jpg

Calculating the True Vote is more complex; the trajectory equation changes over
time as the dynamics of the electorate change. The current election equation is a
recursive function of the prior. It's all in the MATH.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ExposingEndemicElectionFraudSince1968.htm

The Recursive True Vote Model calculates the True Vote for all since 1968.
Data input (shown below) consists of recorded and total votes cast, Final National
Exit Poll shares (1988-2008); estimated vote shares (1968-1984) required to match
the recorded vote, annual voter mortality and previous election voter turnout.

National vote shares are calculated using the following methods:

In method 1, the Final NEP adjusts the return voter weightings to force a match to
the recorded vote. This implicitly assumes that all elections, not just the current,
are fraud-free. The process of matching to the official vote required that millions
of phantom Bush phantoms came to vote in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 (turnout exceeds
100%). The official vote counts cannot be correct.

In method 2, the returning mix is based on prior recorded votes and does not include
millions of uncounted votes.

In method 3, the returning voter mix is based on total votes cast in the previous
and current election. The cumulative impact of earlier elections is not taken into
account.

In method 4, the problem of the Final National Exit Poll perpetuating endemic fraud
of each election is eliminated. Starting with the 1968 election, the model
sequentially derives a feasible returning vote mix. True vote shares cast in the
previous election are reduced by voter mortality and turnout in the current election
and new voters are added to the mix.

The True Vote is calculated based on prior election total votes cast less mortality
times an estimated voter turnout.

For 1988-2008, Final National Exit Poll vote shares are used. The only exception
is 2004 when the vote shares were radically changed along with the returning
voter mix to match the official tally. Therefore the 12:22am update shares are
used to calculate the True Vote. Preliminary national exit poll vote shares have
not been released for the other elections.

Since 1968-1984 National Exit Poll data is unavailable, the returning voter
weighting mix and vote shares necessary to match the recorded vote are calculated.
Of course, the vote shares will differ from the calculated True Vote since the True
Vote cross-tab uses a returning voter mix based on the prior election True Vote.

The model indicates that two elections were definitely stolen (2000 and 2004) and
probably two others (1968 and 1988) as well.

In order to match the official vote, there had to be an average 94% turnout of
returning Democrats and 106% of Republicans.

The average Republican turnout was 114% when Nixon and Bush were the incumbents;
it was 98% otherwise.

The average True Vote discrepancy was 10.3% when Nixon and Bush were incumbents;
it was 3.6% otherwise.

In 1968, Nixon won the official vote by 0.5m.
Humphrey won the True Vote by 2 million.
There were 6 million uncounted votes.

In 1972, Nixon won a 17 million vote landslide with 61.8% of the vote.
His True Vote share was 57.6%.
There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.

In 1976, Carter won the official vote by 1.7m.
He won the True Vote by 4.5 million.
There were 6.7 million uncounted votes.

In 1980, Reagan defeated Carter by 8 million votes.

In 1984, Reagan defeated Mondale by 17 million votes.

In 1988, Bush won the official vote by 7.0m.
Dukakis may have won a squeaker.
There were 10.6 million uncounted votes.

In 1992, Clinton won the official vote by 6m.
He won the True Vote by over 20 million.
There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.
Independent candidate Ross Perot had 19% of the recorded vote.

In 1996, Clinton won the official vote by 8m.
He won the True Vote by 16 million.
There were 8.7 million uncounted votes.
Independent candidate Ross Perot had 10% of the vote.

In 2000, Gore won the official vote by 0.54 million.
He won the True Vote by 4 million.
There were 5.4 million uncounted votes.
But he lost in Scotus by ONE vote.

In 2004, Bush won the official vote by 3.0m.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.
The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.
It had an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter split.
There were 3.4 million net uncounted votes.
HAVA guess how many were stuffed or switched?

In 2008, Obama won the official vote by 9.5m.
He won the True Vote by over 20 million.
The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.
It had an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter split.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/RecursiveTrueVoteModel6808_8076_image001.gif
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/RecursiveTrueVoteModel6808_12627_image001.gif
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/RecursiveTrueVoteModel6808_8143_image001.gif


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In mathematical terms,
TV(i,j) = TV(i-1,k)* VS(k,j), k=1,4; j=1,3
where TV(i,j) = True Vote Cast for candidate (j) in election (i),
VS(k,j) = Share of Candidate j shares of Returning and new voters (k).


2008 True Vote
TV(2008,1)= Obama = 58.2%
TV(2008,2)= McCain= 40.3%
TV(2008,3)= Other = 1.5%%

2004 True Vote
TV(2004,1)= Kerry = 53.6%
TV(2004,2)= Bush = 45.4%
TV(2004,3)= Other = 1.3%

Obama Vote shares
VS(1,1)= 73% of DNV
VS(2,1)= 89% of Kerry
VS(3,1)= 17% of Bush
VS(4,1)= 66% of Other

McCain Vote Shares
VS(1,2)= 27% of DNV
VS(2,2)= 9% of Kerry
VS(3,2)= 82% of Bush
VS(4,2)= 24% of Other

Other Vote Shares
VS(1,3)= 0% of DNV
VS(2,3)= 2% of Kerry
VS(3,3)= 1% of Bush
VS(4,3)= 10% of Other


2008 Key Points

Likely voter (LV) pre-election polls are a subset of Registered voter (RV) polls.
LV polls do not include many newly registered voters.
In the last 5 elections, Democrats won new voters by a 15% average margin.
Obviously, LV polls understate the Democratic vote in high-turnout elections.

In 2004, there were 22 million new voters. Kerry won the group by nearly 20%.
Obama won new voters by 71-27%.

Pre-election Likely Voter tracking polls had Obama leading by 50-43% before undecided voters were allocated (UVA).

Pre-election Registered Voter polls had Obama leading by 53-40% before UVA.
With UVA, Obama was leading by 57-42%.

Based on the 2004 recorded vote, Obama had 55.2%.
Obama won the True Vote (below) with 58.2%.


2008 Method 1: Match Recorded 95% 97%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - - - - 17.08 13.0% 73% 27% 0%
Kerry 48.3% 61.61 59.03 56.08 54.39 48.61 37.0% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 50.7% 62.89 62.04 58.94 57.17 60.43 46.0% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.0% 1.24 1.23 1.17 1.13 5.25 4.0% 66% 26% 8%

Total 125.74 122.30 116.18 112.70 131.37 Total 52.88% 45.60% 1.52%
69.47 59.90 2.00

Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97

2008 Method 2: Previous Recorded 95% 97%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - - - - 18.67 14.2% 73% 27% 0%
Kerry 48.3% 61.61 59.03 56.08 54.39 54.39 41.4% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 50.7% 62.89 62.04 58.94 57.17 57.17 43.5% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.0% 1.24 1.23 1.17 1.13 1.13 0.9% 66% 26% 8%

Total 125.74 122.30 116.18 112.70 131.37 Total 55.19% 43.47% 1.33%
72.51 57.11 1.75

Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97

2008 Method 3: Previous Cast 95% 97%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - - - - 16.44 11.8% 73% 27% 0%
Kerry 49.0% 61.61 59.03 58.53 56.77 56.77 43.2% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 50.0% 62.89 62.04 59.75 57.96 57.96 44.1% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.0% 1.24 1.23 1.17 1.14 1.14 0.9% 66% 26% 8%

Total 125.74 122.30 119.45 115.87 132.31 Total 55.15% 43.48% 1.37%
72.97 57.52 1.82

Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97


2008 Method 4:True Vote 95% 97% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - - - - 16.44 11.8% 73% 27% 0%
Kerry 53.6% 67.41 59.03 64.04 62.12 62.12 47.3% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 45.1% 56.68 62.04 53.84 52.23 52.23 39.8% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.3% 1.65 1.23 1.57 1.52 1.52 1.2% 66% 26% 8%

Total 125.74 122.30 119.45 115.87 132.31 Total 58.22% 40.34% 1.44%
77.03 53.38 1.90

Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97


2008
Method: True Vote
Bush Obama Share Bush Obama Margin
Turnout Kerry Turnout Turnout Kerry Turnout
58.2% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 23.7 90% 92% 94% 96% 98%

90% 59.3% 59.4% 59.6% 59.8% 59.9% 90% 26.3 26.8 27.2 27.7 28.1
92% 58.8% 59.0% 59.1% 59.3% 59.4% 92% 25.1 25.6 26.0 26.4 26.9
94% 58.4% 58.5% 58.7% 58.8% 59.0% 94% 23.9 24.4 24.8 25.2 25.7
96% 57.9% 58.1% 58.2% 58.4% 58.5% 96% 22.7 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.5
98% 57.4% 57.6% 57.8% 57.9% 58.1% 98% 21.5 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.3

Share of Obama Share Share of Obama Margin
Bush Share of DNV Bush Share of DNV
58.2% 71% 72% 73% 74% 75% 23.7 71% 72% 73% 74% 75%

19% 58.8% 58.9% 59.0% 59.1% 59.3% 19% 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.0
18% 58.4% 58.5% 58.6% 58.7% 58.9% 18% 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.3 24.5
17% 58.0% 58.1% 58.2% 58.3% 58.5% 17% 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.8 24.0
16% 57.6% 57.7% 57.8% 57.9% 58.1% 16% 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.4
15% 57.2% 57.3% 57.4% 57.5% 57.7% 15% 22.3 22.4 22.6 22.8 22.9


1968-2008 True Vote Summary Analysis

The True Vote is based on total votes cast in the previous election, adjusted for mortality and turnout.
1988-2008: Final National Exit Poll shares of new and returning voters are used with the exception ofr 2004 (12:22am update).
1968-1984: Shares of new and returning voters and are calculated by matching the recorded vote using a best estimate voter mix.



1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
True Vote Share
Dem 45.3 40.1 52.5 42.8 42.7 50.3 51.8 53.6 50.7 53.6 58.2 49.2
Rep 42.2 57.1 45.8 49.3 56.8 48.7 31.1 37.3 45.7 45.1 40.3 45.4
Other 12.5 2.8 1.7 7.9 0.4 1.0 17.1 9.1 3.6 1.3 1.4 5.4
Margin 3.2 -17.0 6.7 -6.5 -14.1 1.6 20.7 16.3 4.9 8.5 17.9 3.8

Recorded Share
Dem 42.7 36.2 50.1 41.0 40.6 45.6 43.0 49.2 48.4 48.3 52.9 45.3
Rep 43.4 60.7 48.0 50.7 58.8 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 48.8
Other 13.9 3.1 1.9 8.3 0.7 1.0 19.5 10.1 3.8 1.0 1.5 5.9
Margin -0.7 -24.4 2.1 -9.7 -18.2 -7.7 5.6 8.5 0.5 -2.5 7.2 -3.6

Discrepancy
in Margin 3.9 7.4 4.7 3.2 4.1 9.3 15.2 7.8 4.4 11.0 10.6 7.4

Moving Average
True Vote
Dem 45.3 42.7 46.0 45.2 44.7 45.7 48.0 48.2 49.8 52.0 53.6
Rep 41.9 49.5 48.2 48.5 50.1 51.5 46.3 44.6 43.9 41.5 39.8

Recorded
Dem 42.9 39.5 43.1 42.5 42.1 42.7 44.1 43.9 45.4 46.9 48.4
Rep 43.6 52.1 50.7 50.7 52.3 54.3 49.7 48.2 47.6 46.0 44.5

Returning Voter Mix
Dem 55 35 30 42 34 33 28 38 41 37 37 37.3
Rep 35 44 53 41 44 58 53 31 34 43 46 43.8
Other 0 10 3 1 6 1 1 18 9 3 4 5.0

1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average

Previous Vote
Did Note Vote
Dem 38 43 57 36 38 47 46 55 52 57 73 49.3
Rep 43 53 40 47 58 51 25 33 43 41 27 41.9
Ind 19 4 3 17 4 2 29 12 5 2 0 8.8

Democrat
Dem 73 71 92 70 85 92 83 85 82 91 89 83.0
Rep 19 28 7 20 15 7 5 9 15 8 9 12.9
Other 8 1 1 10 0 1 12 6 3 1 2 4.1

Republican
Dem 4 6 24 13 6 19 21 13 7 10 17 12.7
Rep 78 89 74 84 94 80 59 82 91 90 82 82.1
Other 18 5 2 3 0 1 20 5 2 0 1 5.2

Other
Dem 0 40 58 50 49 50 40 32 44 64 66 44.8
Rep 0 59 39 36 50 49 40 42 44 17 26 36.5
Other 100 1 3 14 1 1 20 26 12 19 8 18.6

Turnout 94 92 94 94 95 94 98 88 97 98 97 94.6

1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Required to Match
Dem na 99.6 97.2 99.7 98.4 90.1 75.1 97.4 98.9 95.3 89.4 94.1
Rep na 123.1 102.6 101.5 102.9 109.2 121.6 91.3 99.2 111.9 105.7 106.9
Other na 87.7 95.0 62.5 85.7 82.6 87.2 101.6 106.3 99.5 464.7 127.3

Recorded 73.20 77.74 81.53 86.58 92.65 91.60 104.42 96.28 105.42 122.30 131.37 96.64

Dem 31.27 28.17 40.83 35.48 37.58 41.81 44.91 47.40 51.00 59.03 69.46 44.27
Rep 31.78 47.17 39.15 43.90 54.46 48.89 39.11 39.20 50.46 62.04 59.94 46.92
Other 10.14 2.40 1.55 7.19 0.62 0.90 20.41 9.68 3.96 1.23 1.97 5.46

Total Cast
78.96 85.77 86.70 93.07 101.88 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74 132.31 103.31
Net Unctd
5.76 8.02 5.17 6.49 9.22 10.63 9.44 8.74 5.41 3.44 0.94 6.66

Unctd Allocated
Dem 4.32 6.02 3.87 4.87 6.92 7.97 7.08 6.55 4.06 2.58 0.70 5.00
Rep 1.24 1.94 1.27 1.49 2.29 2.63 1.90 1.96 1.30 0.85 0.23 1.56
Other 0.20 0.06 0.02 0.13 0.02 0.03 0.46 0.22 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.11

Total Cast
Dem 35.60 34.19 44.71 40.35 44.50 49.78 51.99 53.95 55.06 61.61 70.17 49.26
Rep 33.03 49.11 40.41 45.39 56.75 51.52 41.00 41.16 51.76 62.89 60.17 48.47
Other 10.34 2.46 1.58 7.32 0.64 0.93 20.87 9.90 4.01 1.24 1.97 5.57

Percent Cast
Dem 45.1 39.9 51.6 43.4 43.7 48.7 45.7 51.4 49.7 49.0 53.0 47.4
Rep 41.8 57.3 46.6 48.8 55.7 50.4 36.0 39.2 46.7 50.0 45.5 47.1
Other 13.1 2.9 1.8 7.9 0.6 0.9 18.3 9.4 3.6 1.0 1.5 5.5
=====================================================================

Great work TIA and good to see you are still at it. Read through all of your new material here last night.

- TA (formerly mberst)

Yes, I'm still at it.

The analysis has come a long way since 2004-2005.

I'm constantly refining the True Vote Excel Models.
This is the most recent version - a compact 1968-2008 national model.

Last week, I developed a comprehensive state-based True Vote Model to calculate Electoral Votes.

I always appreciate your comments.

2004 Key Points

Bush had an 48% approval rating on Election Day. There were 22 million new voters - mostly Democratic. Returning Gore voters were out for blood. Nader voters were defecting to Kerry. It should have been a slam-dunk. And it was. Kerry won the True Vote by a landslide. But only the recorded vote counts. And Bush "won" by 3 million recorded votes.

To match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to adjust the returning Bush/Gore voter mix in the Final National Exit Poll to an impossible 43/37% - which meant there were 52.6m returning Bush voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 48 million were still alive and 47 million voted in 2004.

However, just changing the mix was not sufficient to match Bush's official 62 million tally. The exit pollsters also had to raise Bush vote shares from the 12:22am NEP. His share of new voters jumped from 41% to 45%; Gore voters from 8% to 10%; Bush voters from 90% to 91%. It makes no sense to apply the bogus Final 2004 NEP (13660 respondents) vote shares to calculate the True Vote. The 12:22am update (13047 respondents) shares are used.

The sensitivity analyses tables confirmed a Kerry landslide. In the worst case returning vote scenario (Gore 90%, Bush 98%), Kerry wins by 7.8 million votes. In the worst case vote share scenario, Kerry had 8% of returning Bush voters and 55% share of new voters. He wins by 9.4 million votes.

According to the Final NEP, Bush needed an impossible 112% turnout of returning Bush 2000 voters to match the official vote. Gore turnout had to be 95%.

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2004 Method: Forced to Match 95% 98%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 20.79 17.0% 54% 44% 2%
Gore 48.4% 55.06 51.00 48.45 47.48 45.25 37.0% 90% 10% 0%
Bush 47.9% 51.76 50.46 47.93 46.97 52.59 43.0% 9% 91% 0%
Other 3.8% 4.01 3.96 3.76 3.69 3.67 3.0% 64% 14% 22%

Total 110.83 105.42 100.15 98.14 122.30 Total 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
59.03 62.04 1.22

Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23

2004 Method: Previous Recorded 95% 98%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 24.15 19.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48.4% 55.06 51.00 48.45 47.48 47.48 38.8% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47.9% 51.76 50.46 47.93 46.97 46.97 38.4% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.8% 4.01 3.96 3.76 3.69 3.69 3.0% 64% 17% 19%

Total 110.83 105.42 100.15 98.14 122.30 Total 52.36% 46.29% 1.36%
64.03 56.61 1.66

Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23

2004 Method: Previous Cast 95% 98%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 22.56 15.6% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 49.7% 55.06 51.00 52.30 51.26 51.26 41.9% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 46.8% 51.76 50.46 49.17 48.19 48.19 39.4% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.6% 4.01 3.96 3.81 3.73 3.73 3.1% 64% 17% 19%

Total 110.83 105.42 105.28 103.18 125.74 Total 52.95% 45.74% 1.31%
66.57 57.52 1.65

Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23

2004 Method: True Voted 95% 98%
Cast Recorde Alive Voted Voter
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 22.56 15.6% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 50.7% 56.17 51.00 53.36 52.29 52.29 42.8% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 45.7% 50.69 50.46 48.16 47.19 47.19 38.6% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.6% 3.96 3.96 3.77 3.69 3.69 3.0% 64% 17% 19%

Total 110.83 105.42 105.28 103.18 125.74 Total 53.61% 45.07% 1.31%
67.41 56.68 1.65

Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23

2004
Method: True Vote
Bush Kerry Share Bush Kerry Margin
Turnout Gore Turnout Turnout Gore Turnout
53.6% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 10.7 90% 92% 94% 96% 98%

90% 53.9% 54.2% 54.5% 54.8% 55.1% 90% 11.6 12.3 13.1 13.8 14.5
92% 53.5% 53.8% 54.1% 54.4% 54.7% 92% 10.6 11.4 12.1 12.9 13.6
94% 53.2% 53.5% 53.8% 54.1% 54.4% 94% 9.7 10.4 11.2 11.9 12.6
96% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4% 53.7% 54.0% 96% 8.7 9.5 10.2 11.0 11.7
98% 52.4% 52.7% 53.0% 53.3% 53.6% 98% 7.8 8.5 9.3 10.0 10.7

Share of Kerry Share Share of Kerry Margin
Bush Share of DNV Bush Share of DNV
53.6% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 10.7 55% 56% 57% 58% 59%

12% 54.1% 54.2% 54.4% 54.5% 54.7% 12% 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1
11% 53.7% 53.8% 54.0% 54.2% 54.3% 11% 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6
10% 53.3% 53.5% 53.6% 53.8% 53.9% 10% 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1
9% 52.9% 53.1% 53.2% 53.4% 53.5% 9% 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6
8% 52.5% 52.7% 52.8% 53.0% 53.2% 8% 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2

2000 Key Points

Gore was running coming off a prior Clinton landslide. On Election Day 2000, Slick Willie still enjoyed high approval ratings - despite that cheap cigar.

There were 5.4 million net (of stiffed) uncounted votes. Figure 75% to Gore. Do the math. He won the True Vote by approximately 5.5 million.

[code]

2000 Method: Forced to Match 95% 97%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1996 1996 1996 2000 2000 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV - - - - 16.87 16.0% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 49.2% 53.95 47.40 45.03 43.68 43.22 41.0% 82% 15% 3%
Dole 40.7% 41.16 39.20 37.24 36.12 35.84 34.0% 7% 91% 2%
Perot 10.1% 9.90 9.68 9.20 8.92 9.49 9.0% 44% 44% 12%

Total 105.02 96.28 91.47 88.72 105.42 Total 48.28% 47.93% 3.79%
50.89 50.53 4.00

Recorded 48.38% 47.86% 3.76%
105.42 51.00 50.46 3.96

2000 Method: Previous Recorded 95% 97%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1996 1996 1996 2000 2000 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV - - - - 16.69 15.8% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 49.2% 53.95 47.40 45.03 43.68 43.68 41.4% 82% 15% 3%
Dole 40.7% 41.16 39.20 37.24 36.12 36.12 34.3% 7% 91% 2%
Perot 10.1% 9.90 9.68 9.20 8.92 8.92 8.5% 44% 44% 12%

Total 105.02 96.28 91.47 88.72 105.42 Total 48.33% 47.93% 3.74%
50.95 50.53 3.94

Recorded 48.38% 47.86% 3.76%
105.42 51.00 50.46 3.96

2000 Method: Previous Cast 95% 97%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1996 1996 1996 2000 2000 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV - - - - 14.05 8.2% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 51.4% 53.95 47.40 51.26 49.72 49.72 47.2% 82% 15% 3%
Dole 39.4% 41.16 39.20 39.10 37.93 37.93 36.0% 7% 91% 2%
Perot 9.2% 9.90 9.68 9.41 9.12 9.12 8.7% 44% 44% 12%

Total 105.02 96.28 99.77 96.77 110.83 Total 49.26% 47.15% 3.58%
54.60 52.26 3.97

Recorded 48.38% 47.86% 3.76%
105.42 51.00 50.46 3.96


2000 Method: True Vote 95% 97%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1996 1996 1996 2000 2000 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV - - - - 14.05 8.2% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 53.6% 56.26 47.40 53.45 51.84 51.84 49.2% 82% 15% 3%
Dole 37.3% 39.15 39.20 37.19 36.08 36.08 34.2% 7% 91% 2%
Perot 9.1% 9.61 9.68 9.13 8.85 8.85 8.4% 44% 44% 12%

Total 105.02 96.28 99.77 96.77 110.83 Total 50.68% 45.74% 3.58%
56.17 50.69 3.96

Recorded 48.38% 47.86% 3.76%
105.42 51.00 50.46 3.96


2000
Method: True Vote
Dole Gore Share Dole Gore Margin
Turnout Clinton Turnout Turnout Clinton Turnout
50.7% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 5.5 90% 92% 94% 96% 98%

90% 50.7% 51.0% 51.3% 51.6% 51.9% 90% 5.7 6.4 7.0 7.7 8.3
92% 50.4% 50.7% 51.0% 51.3% 51.6% 92% 5.0 5.7 6.3 7.0 7.6
94% 50.1% 50.4% 50.7% 51.0% 51.3% 94% 4.3 4.9 5.6 6.2 6.9
96% 49.8% 50.1% 50.4% 50.7% 51.0% 96% 3.6 4.2 4.9 5.5 6.2
98% 49.5% 49.8% 50.1% 50.4% 50.7% 98% 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.8 5.4

Share of Gore Share Share of Gore Margin
Dole Share of DNV Dole Share of DNV
50.7% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 5.5 50% 51% 52% 53% 54%

9% 51.2% 51.3% 51.4% 51.4% 51.5% 9% 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4
8% 50.9% 50.9% 51.0% 51.1% 51.2% 8% 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0
7% 50.5% 50.6% 50.7% 50.8% 50.8% 7% 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7
6% 50.2% 50.3% 50.3% 50.4% 50.5% 6% 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3
5% 49.8% 49.9% 50.0% 50.1% 50.2% 5% 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9

1996 Key Points

Clinton enjoyed high popularity in a recovering economy; the deficit was turning into a surplus. He had won a major landslide in 1992 with Independent Perot capturing 20% of the vote (most would have gone to Poppy Bush). In 1996, Perot had just 10%. Approximately 42% of returning 1992 Perot voters defected to Dole and 32% to Clinton. Clinton's True Vote share increased from 51.8% to 53.6%.


[code]

1996 Method: Forced to Match 95% 88%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1992 1992 1992 1996 1996 Turnout Mix Clinton Dole Perot
DNV - - - - 12.52 13.0% 55% 33% 12%
Clinton 43.0% 51.99 44.91 42.66 37.54 36.59 38.0% 85% 9% 6%
Bush 37.4% 41.00 39.11 37.15 32.69 29.85 31.0% 13% 82% 5%
Perot 19.5% 20.87 20.41 19.39 17.06 17.33 18.0% 32% 42% 26%

Total 113.87 104.42 99.20 87.30 96.28 Total 49.24% 40.69% 10.07%
47.41 39.18 9.70

Recorded 49.23% 40.71% 10.05%
96.28 47.40 39.20 9.68

1996 Method: Previous Recorded 95% 88%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1992 1992 1992 1996 1996 Turnout Mix Clinton Dole Perot
DNV - - - - 8.98 9.3% 55% 33% 12%
Clinton 43.0% 51.99 44.91 42.66 37.54 37.54 39.0% 85% 9% 6%
Bush 37.4% 41.00 39.11 37.15 32.69 32.69 34.0% 13% 82% 5%
Perot 19.5% 20.87 20.41 19.39 17.06 17.06 17.7% 32% 42% 26%

Total 113.87 104.42 99.20 87.30 96.28 Total 48.36% 41.87% 9.76%
46.56 40.32 9.40

Recorded 49.23% 40.71% 10.05%
96.28 47.40 39.20 9.68

1996 Method: Previous Cast 95% 88%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1992 1992 1992 1996 1996 Turnout Mix Clinton Dole Perot
DNV - - - - 9.83 1.1% 55% 33% 12%
Clinton 45.7% 51.99 44.91 49.39 43.46 43.46 45.1% 85% 9% 6%
Bush 36.4% 41.00 39.11 38.95 34.28 34.28 35.6% 13% 82% 5%
Perot 17.9% 20.87 20.41 19.83 17.45 17.45 18.1% 32% 42% 26%

Total 113.87 104.42 108.17 95.19 105.02 Total 49.42% 41.24% 9.34%
51.90 43.31 9.80

Recorded 49.23% 40.71% 10.05%
96.28 47.40 39.20 9.68

1996 Method: True Vote 95% 88%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1992 1992 1992 1996 1996 Turnout Mix Clinton Dole Perot
DNV - - - - 9.83 1.1% 55% 33% 12%
Clinton 51.8% 58.99 44.91 56.04 49.32 49.32 51.2% 85% 9% 6%
Bush 31.1% 35.37 39.11 33.60 29.57 29.57 30.7% 13% 82% 5%
Perot 17.1% 19.51 20.41 18.53 16.31 16.31 16.9% 32% 42% 26%

Total 113.87 104.42 108.17 95.19 105.02 Total 53.57% 37.28% 9.15%
56.26 39.15 9.61

Recorded 49.23% 40.71% 10.05%
96.28 47.40 39.20 9.68



1996
Method: True Vote
Bush Clinton Share Bush Clinton Margin
Turnout Clinton Turnout Turnout Clinton Turnout
53.6% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 17.1 90% 92% 94% 96% 98%

90% 53.6% 54.0% 54.3% 54.7% 55.0% 90% 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.1 19.7
92% 53.3% 53.7% 54.0% 54.4% 54.7% 92% 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.1
94% 53.0% 53.4% 53.7% 54.1% 54.4% 94% 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.4
96% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4% 53.8% 54.1% 96% 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.7
98% 52.5% 52.8% 53.2% 53.5% 53.9% 98% 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.1

Share of Clinton Share Share of Clinton Margin
Bush Share of DNV Bush Share of DNV
53.6% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 17.1 53% 54% 55% 56% 57%

15% 54.2% 54.2% 54.2% 54.2% 54.2% 15% 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.8
14% 53.9% 53.9% 53.9% 53.9% 53.9% 14% 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.5
13% 53.6% 53.6% 53.6% 53.6% 53.6% 13% 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1
12% 53.2% 53.3% 53.3% 53.3% 53.3% 12% 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8
11% 52.9% 52.9% 53.0% 53.0% 53.0% 11% 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5

1992 Key Points

Bush was running as a very unpopular incumbent (S&L, Iran-Contra, exploding deficit, imploding economy. Clinton was poised to win late undecideds. Perot was running as a strong Independent candidate - mostly pulling votes from Bush. It was a major landslide, much bigger than the official 6 million vote margin. The True Vote model indicates that Clinton had 52%, Perot 17%, Bush 31%. Without Perot, it probably would have been 57-43%.

[code]

1992 Method: Forced to Match 95% 98%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1988 1988 1988 1992 1992 Turnout Mix Clinton Bush Perot
DNV - - - - 19.11 18.3% 46% 25% 29%
Dukakis 45.6% 49.78 41.81 39.72 38.92 29.24 28.0% 83% 5% 12%
Bush 53.4% 51.52 48.89 46.44 45.51 55.34 53.0% 21% 59% 20%
Other 1.0% 0.93 0.90 0.85 0.84 0.73 0.7% 40% 40% 20%

Total 102.22 91.60 87.02 85.27 104.42 Total 43.07% 37.53% 19.41%
44.97 39.19 20.27

Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54%
104.42 44.91 39.11 20.41

1992 Method: Previous Recorded 95% 98%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1988 1988 1988 1992 1992 Turnout Mix Clinton Bush Perot
DNV - - - - 19.15 18.3% 46% 25% 29%
Dukakis 45.6% 49.78 41.81 39.72 38.92 38.92 37.3% 83% 5% 12%
Bush 53.4% 51.52 48.89 46.44 45.51 45.51 43.6% 21% 59% 20%
Other 1.0% 0.93 0.90 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.8% 40% 40% 20%

Total 102.22 91.60 87.02 85.27 104.42 Total 48.85% 32.48% 18.67%
51.01 33.92 19.49

Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54%
104.42 44.91 39.11 20.41


1992 Method: Previous Cast 95% 98%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1988 1988 1988 1992 1992 Turnout Mix Clinton Bush Perot
DNV - - - - 18.70 8.9% 46% 25% 29%
Dukakis 48.7% 49.78 41.81 47.29 46.35 46.35 44.4% 83% 5% 12%
Bush 50.4% 51.52 48.89 48.94 47.96 47.96 45.9% 21% 59% 20%
Other 0.9% 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.86 0.8% 40% 40% 20%

Total 102.22 91.60 97.11 95.17 113.87 Total 50.89% 31.86% 17.25%
57.95 36.28 19.64

Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54%
104.42 44.91 39.11 20.41


1992 Method: True Vote 95% 98%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1988 1988 1988 1992 1992 Turnout Mix Clinton Bush Perot
DNV - - - - 18.70 8.9% 46% 25% 29%
Dukakis 50.3% 51.41 41.81 48.84 47.86 47.86 45.8% 83% 5% 12%
Bush 48.7% 49.78 48.89 47.29 46.35 46.35 44.4% 21% 59% 20%
Other 1.0% 1.03 0.90 0.98 0.96 0.96 0.9% 40% 40% 20%

Total 102.22 91.60 97.11 95.17 113.87 Total 51.81% 31.06% 17.13%
58.99 35.37 19.51

Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54%
104.42 44.91 39.11 20.41


1992
Method: True Vote
Bush Clinton Share Bush Clinton Margin
Turnout Dukakis Turnout Turnout Dukakis Turnout
51.8% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 23.6 90% 92% 94% 96% 98%

90% 51.3% 51.7% 52.0% 52.4% 52.7% 90% 23.6 24.2 24.8 25.5 26.1
92% 51.1% 51.4% 51.8% 52.1% 52.5% 92% 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.8 25.5
94% 50.9% 51.2% 51.6% 51.9% 52.3% 94% 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.8
96% 50.7% 51.0% 51.3% 51.7% 52.0% 96% 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.2
98% 50.4% 50.8% 51.1% 51.5% 51.8% 98% 21.2 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.6



Share of Clinton Share Share of Clinton Margin
Bush Share of DNV Bush Share of DNV
51.8% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 23.6 44% 45% 46% 47% 48%

23% 52.5% 52.6% 52.7% 52.8% 52.9% 23% 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.8
22% 52.1% 52.2% 52.3% 52.3% 52.4% 22% 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.3
21% 51.6% 51.7% 51.8% 51.9% 52.0% 21% 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.8
20% 51.2% 51.3% 51.4% 51.5% 51.5% 20% 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3
19% 50.7% 50.8% 50.9% 51.0% 51.1% 19% 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.8

1988

This was the beginning of the Bush reign of terror. The Iran-Contra scandal. along with a sliding economy, had taken it's toll on Reagan/Bush. Dukakis was the early favorite. But this was a Bush running; the Mighty Wurlitzer was in place. CNN ambushed Dukakis in the first question of the first debate by letting Willie Horton loose. But Dukakis may have won anyway. If the 10.6 million (net of stuffed) uncounted votes had been counted, it would have been much closer than the bogus official 7 million Bush margin.

[code]
1988 Method: Forced to Match 95% 94%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1984 1984 1984 1988 1988 Turnout Mix Dukakis Bush Other
DNV - - - - 7.79 8.5% 47% 51% 2%
Mondale 40.6% 44.50 37.58 35.70 33.56 30.23 33.0% 92% 7% 1%
Reagan 58.8% 56.75 54.46 51.73 48.63 53.13 58.0% 19% 80% 1%
Other 0.7% 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.46 0.5% 50% 49% 1%

Total 101.88 92.65 88.02 82.74 91.60 Total 45.63% 53.29% 1.09%
41.79 48.81 0.99

Recorded 45.65% 53.37% 0.98%
91.60 41.81 48.89 0.90


1988 Method: Previous Recorded 95% 94%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1984 1984 1984 1988 1988 Turnout Mix Dukakis Bush Other
DNV - - - - 8.86 9.7% 47% 51% 2%
Mondale 40.6% 44.50 37.58 35.70 33.56 33.56 36.6% 92% 7% 1%
Reagan 58.8% 56.75 54.46 51.73 48.63 48.63 53.1% 19% 80% 1%
Other 0.7% 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.55 0.6% 50% 49% 1%

Total 101.88 92.65 88.02 82.74 91.60 Total 48.64% 50.26% 1.10%
44.55 46.04 1.00

Recorded 45.65% 53.37% 0.98%
91.60 41.81 48.89 0.90


1988 Method: Previous Cast 95% 94%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1984 1984 1984 1988 1988 Turnout Mix Dukakis Bush Other
DNV - - - - 11.25 0.7% 47% 51% 2%
Mondale 44.1% 44.50 37.58 42.27 39.73 39.73 43.4% 92% 7% 1%
Reagan 55.9% 56.75 54.46 53.91 50.67 50.67 55.3% 19% 80% 1%
Other 0.0% 0.64 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.57 0.6% 50% 49% 1%

Total 101.88 92.65 96.78 90.98 102.22 Total 51.05% 47.94% 1.01%
52.18 49.01 1.03

Recorded 45.65% 53.37% 0.98%
91.60 41.81 48.89 0.90


1988 Method: True Vote 95% 94%
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter
1984 1984 1984 1988 1988 Turnout Mix Dukakis Bush Other
DNV - - - - 11.25 0.7% 47% 51% 2%
Mondale 42.7% 43.51 37.58 41.34 38.86 38.86 42.4% 92% 7% 1%
Reagan 56.8% 57.91 54.46 55.02 51.72 51.72 56.5% 19% 80% 1%
Other 0.4% 0.45 0.62 0.43 0.41 0.41 0.4% 50% 49% 1%

Total 101.88 92.65 96.78 90.98 102.22 Total 50.29% 48.70% 1.01%
51.41 49.78 1.03

Recorded 45.65% 53.37% 0.98%
91.60 41.81 48.89 0.90


1988
Method: True Vote
Reagan Dukakis Share Reagan Dukakis Margin
Turnout Mondale Turnout Turnout Mondale Turnout
50.3% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 1.6 90% 92% 94% 96% 98%

90% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 90% 1.4 2.2 3.0 3.9 4.7
92% 49.8% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 92% 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.2 4.0
94% 49.5% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1% 94% (0.0) 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.3
96% 49.1% 49.6% 50.0% 50.4% 50.8% 96% (0.7) 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.6
98% 48.8% 49.2% 49.6% 50.0% 50.4% 98% (1.4) (0.6) 0.2 1.1 1.9

Share of Dukakis Share Share of Dukakis Margin
Reagan Share of DNV Reagan Share of DNV
50.3% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 1.6 45% 46% 47% 48% 49%

21% 51.4% 51.4% 51.4% 51.4% 51.4% 21% 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
20% 50.8% 50.9% 50.9% 50.9% 50.9% 20% 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
19% 50.3% 50.3% 50.3% 50.3% 50.3% 19% 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
18% 49.7% 49.7% 49.7% 49.7% 49.7% 18% 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
17% 49.2% 49.2% 49.2% 49.2% 49.2% 17% 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5