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View Full Version : Market Crash has still not hit main street – yet



Code_Name_D
09-17-2008, 07:50 PM
So far, their have been two bloody days on Wall Street. The fall of giants is starting to accelerate, including the ones that are “too big to fail” forcing the government to bail them out. They are no longer even bothering to be coy about the language any more. Even the government happy talk has almost come to an end. (There are still a few hold outs who have no idea how ridiculous they look claiming that the system is fundamentally sound.) The house of cards really is falling this time, and it’s on nearly every TV and splashed on the front page of nearly every paper.

Now you would think that with all this reporting, the average Joe investor might at least become just a hair bit skeptical about some of the promises made to him by his 401K. At least in my shop any way, this just isn’t so. Oh sure, they are concerned, but in a very disconnected sort of way. It’s a bit like being worried some one will drop a bomb on a complete and total stranger who you are unlikely to ever meet from Baghdad, as oppose to getting a bomb dropped on your own house while you and your family pray for deliverance in the basement.

Even the self proclaimed market experts of the shop don’t really have a good idea of how real economics works. And even during the throws of the melt down, the media is doing a horrific job of explaining the implications. The up shot is that the average blue color investor doesn’t have a clue of what is coming. To them, this really is just another day on the free money train. True, the train is moving more slowly than they like, but they are still surfing the web looking for bargains to get in on.

To make mater worse, local real-estate has launched a major ad blitz, crowing about housing bargains and low-low interest rates. The media coverage has been so bad that most still believe that the melt down largely has to do with housing mortgages. (PS: One of the neo-brain-deaders hit me today with another “explanation” for the melt down. Apparently illegal immigrants are not only forging employment papers, but are also forging housing loans. And that is why there are so many foreclosures – because there are too many illegal immigrants.) If the housing market is rebounding (it really isn’t) than the markets will rebound soon as well, nothing to worry about.

Obama at least has suddenly been getting noticed at least. Unfortunately, his centrist ways are still working against him. Obama has not been honest about the nature of the crises, and has largely been using the “mismanaged” meme, and the debate degenerates into an argument about “management personalities”. This lets McCain get away with more credibility than he deserves, and the race still remains in a dead heat.