TruthIsAll
11-12-2008, 09:54 PM
-----------------------------
Landslide Denied: A Summary of Statistical Anomalies
TruthIsAll
Dec. 11, 2008
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008StatAnomalies.htm
This analysis updates "2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll".
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm
Just because Obama won does not mean that fraud did not occur and that the recorded vote represents the True Vote. An analysis based on a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and Final 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares indicates that Obama more than doubled his recorded 9.36m vote margin.
Election bloggers and media pundits don’t discuss the following anomalies in 2008; neither did they discuss them in 2000 and 2004:
1) Final National pre-election polls: Likely voter (LV) polls understated Obama’s projected share (7.5% LV margin vs. 10% RV).
2) Final State pre-election polls: Unallocated undecided voters reduced Obama’s projected share.
3) Final National Exit Poll: Impossible Bush/Kerry/Other returning voter share (46/37/4) in 2008 reduced Obama’s True Vote by 3-4%.
4) Battleground State Exit Polls: Recorded vote discrepancy exceeded the MoE in 6 of 15 states for McCain (4.4% margin discrepancy).
5) Late recorded votes: Obama won 59.2-37.7% of 9.4 million late votes recorded after Election Day, but just 52.3% of 121.2m on Election Day.
6) Uncounted votes: Although still unknown for 2008, 70-80% are always Democratic, resulting in a 1-3% reduction in vote margin.
The 2008 Election Model (EM) projection exactly matched the 365-173 electoral vote and was close to matching the current popular vote share (52.8-45.7%). The model projected that Obama would receive 365.3 expected electoral votes with a 53.1-44.9% share. But the landslide was denied. See 2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll.
National Pre-election Polls: Registered (RV) vs. Likely Vote (LV) and Undecided Voters
Obama had a higher winning margin (10.0%) in the final national registered voter (RV) polls than in the likely-voter (LV) polls (7.25%). The unadjusted average pre-election poll (51-44%) understated his projected margin. Assuming he captured 75% of the undecided vote, he led the average RV poll by 13% (55.7-42.7%) and 9% in the average LV poll (53.8-44.6%).
Like Kerry, Obama was the de-facto challenger: McCain supported an unpopular incumbent. The challenger typically gets 75-90% of the late undecided vote, especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 22% approval rating.
The Final 2008 National Exit Poll indicates that returning Bush 2004 voters comprised 46% of the 2008 electorate and Kerry voters 37%. Applying the 46% mix to the recorded vote, there were 60.1m (.46*130.7) returning Bush voters. Bush had 62.0m recorded votes. Approximately 3.0m (4.8%) died and another 3.0m did not vote in 2008. Therefore, the 2008 Final NEP is impossible - as it was in 2004. And if Bush only had 57.5m votes, as per the unadjusted exit poll (Kerry won by 52-47%), 54.5m Bush voters at most could have voted.
2008 Final National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote, 17836 respondents)
Obama Margin: 9.3m
Voted Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.0 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.1 4.6 0.3
42.5% Kerry 48.4 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.0 4.4 1.0
52.9% Bush 60.1 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.2 49.3 0.6
4.6% Other 5.2 4% 66% 24% 10% 3.5 1.3 0.5
113.7 Total 130.7 100% 52.6% 45.5% 1.9% 68.8 59.5 2.4
Scenario 1: Returning voter mix based on 2004 recorded vote
2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008
Obama Margin: 17.4m
2004 Voted Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.6 15.3% 71% 27% 2% 14.7 5.6 0.4
48.3% Kerry 56.0 41.6% 89% 9% 2% 49.9 5.0 1.1
50.7% Bush 56.9 42.3% 17% 82% 1% 9.7 46.7 0.6
1.0% Other 1.1 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.8 0.3 0.1
Total 134.8 100.% 55.6% 42.7% 1.6% 75.0 57.6 2.2
Scenario 2: Returning voter mix based on 2004 unadjusted exit poll
2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008
Obama Margin: 23.4m
2004 Voted Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.7 15.4% 71% 27% 2% 14.70 5.59 0.41
52.0% Kerry 60.1 44.6% 89% 9% 2% 53.49 5.41 1.20
47.0% Bush 52.8 39.2% 17% 82% 1% 8.98 43.31 0.53
1.0% Other 1.1 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.75 0.27 0.11
Total 134.8 100% 57.8% 40.5% 1.7% 77.9 54.6 2.3
There were 48.4m (.37*130.7) returning Kerry voters. He had 59.0 million recorded votes in 2004. Since approximately 2.8m died, the 2008 Final implies that 48.4m of 56.2m (86.0%) Kerry voters still living returned to vote in 2008.
How could there have been 11.7m more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters? Bush won by 3.0m votes. Since the impossible Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote count, the vote count must also have been impossible.
The impossible 46/37 Bush/Kerry returning voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP is nothing new. The 2004 Final reported a 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter share of the 2004 electorate. But the Bush 43% share was also mathematically and physically impossible since it meant that Bush had 52.6 million votes in 2000; but he had just 50.5m and approximately 2.5 million died. Therefore, only 48m former Bush voters were alive in 2004. The 2004 Final overstated the number of returning Bush 2000 voters by more than 4.5 million.
The Election Calculator model was used to calculate the 2008 True Vote using Final 2008 NEP vote shares for two returning voter scenario assumptions as above, but also including the impact of 2004 voter mortality, uncounted votes and 2004 voter turnout in 2008:
The first scenario used the recorded 2004 vote to determine the returning voter mix (Bush won by 50.73-48.27%).
Obama won this (unlikely) scenario by 17.4 million votes – an 8 million increase over his recorded margin.
The second scenario used the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry by 52-47%).
Obama won this (most likely) scenario by 23.4 million - a 14 million increase over his recorded margin.
The same differential occurred in 2004 when Kerry lost the recorded vote by 51-48m and the Election Calculator determined that he won the True Vote by 67-57m. A feasible returning voter mix was based on a 2000 voter annual mortality rate of 1.2% and an assumed 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am NEP vote shares were used rather than the Final because the Bush shares were also inflated in the Final (along with the Bush returning voter mix) to force a match to the recorded vote.
Battleground Exit Poll Discrepancies: 6 of 15 states beyond the margin of error
Preliminary exit polls in 15 battleground states gave Obama a 53.9% average share compared to his 51.8% recorded share.
The 2.0% state exit poll MoE was exceeded in 6 states in favor of McCain: FL, MI, MN, MO, OH and PA
The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in at least 6 of 15 states in favor of McCain is 1 in 994,000.
The probability is calculated by the Excel binomial distribution function: = 1– BINOMDIST (5, 15, .025, true)
(.025 is the probability that the exit poll discrepancy would exceed the MoE for McCain in any given state)
Assuming a 15-state aggregate 1.5% MoE, the probability of a 4.4% margin difference is 0.19% (1 in 521).
The probability is calculated by the Excel normal distribution function: = NORMDIST (.5248, .5466, .015/1.96,true)
(.5248 is Obama’s 2-party recorded vote share and .5466 his 2-party exit poll share)
Initial vs. Late Votes: a consistent 10-15% discrepancy in the Democratic margin
Dave Leip's Election Atlas indicates that 130.70m votes have been recorded. Obama currently leads by 69.06-59.70m, a 52.84-45.68% share. On Election Day 121.2m votes were recorded and he led by 63.44-56.13m (52.3-46.3%). Therefore, Obama has a 59.2-37.7% share of the last 9.5m votes. Gore and Kerry also won the late votes with margins that far exceeded their initial vote shares. Notice a pattern here?
In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic 2-party late vote was 7% higher than the initial share.
On Election Day 2004, 116.7m votes were recorded; Bush led by 51.2-48.3%.
Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8m late 2-party votes, a 10.4% increase in margin.
There were 3.4m uncounted votes.
On Election Day 2000, 102.6m votes were recorded; Gore led by 48.3-48.1% (50.1% of the 2-party vote).
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7m late 2-party votes, an 11.0% increase in margin.
There were 5.4m uncounted votes.
In 2004, there was a 12% discrepancy in margin between the initial 116.3 million votes and the final 6.0. This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m).
The Initial and Late Vote discrepancy is a red flag. It indicates that the 2004 election was decided when 116m votes were recorded; election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes were irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner. The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 116 million recorded votes.
There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. The correlation for states with more than 40k late votes was a much stronger 0.93.
This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote:
1) High correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) Small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) Higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial recorded votes
How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?
Uncounted Votes: millions of Democratic votes are never counted in every election
According to the 2004 U.S. Vote Census, 122.3m votes were recorded out of 125.7m cast; in 2000, 105.4m were recorded of 110.8m cast. Democrats traditionally win 70-80% of the uncounted vote.
The latest election results show Obama leading by 67.6-58.8m votes with a total of 128.1m recorded. That’s a solid mandate, but his True Vote was better than that. The tremendous GOTV and new registration effort has not resulted in the expected increase in the recorded vote from 2004. There was a 17m net increase in recorded votes from 2000 to 2004 (105m to 122m). The media should be asking the questions. Why is the recorded count only 128.11m when a 140m+ turnout was forecast? How many touch screen votes were lost in cyberspace; how many optical scanned or provisional ballots were lost?
Historically, about 75% of uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, provisional and absentee) are Democratic. Therefore, if 143m votes were actually cast, Obama’s current margin would rival Johnson (’64), Nixon (’72) and Reagan (’84). But we will have to wait until the Census Bureau publishes its 2008 vote survey to know how many votes were cast.
Exit poll critics claim that the large (5.4 WPE) 1992 exit poll discrepancy proves that the 2004 discrepancy (7.1 WPE) was not unique; therefore it is "crap" and "bad science" to conclude that elections are stolen based on unadjusted exit polls. Critics claim there were no allegations of fraud in 1992 when the WPE was 5.4. They fail to mention or are unaware that Clinton beat Bush I by 44.9-39.1m (43.0-37.4%) but that 9.4m votes were uncounted. Approximately 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic in every election. When the 9.4m uncounted votes are added back, the adjusted vote is 52.0-41.5m. The 45.7-36.4% vote share exactly matched the unadjusted exit poll.
Uncounted votes have steadily declined as percent of total votes cast - from 10.4% in 1988 to 2.7% in 2004. When uncounted votes are included in order to derive total votes cast for the five elections from 1988-2004, the adjusted Democratic vote is within 0.1% of the unadjusted exit poll share.
In every one of the last five elections the unadjusted Democratic exit poll share exceeded the recorded vote. But which of the five elections stands out from the rest? Only in 2004 did the ADJUSTED vote come up short of the EXIT POLL share. The 2004 exit poll discrepancies were different in kind and scope from those of the prior four elections. Unlike 1988-2000, the 2004 discrepancies cannot be explained by uncounted votes alone.
Comparing the adjusted vote to the aggregate state exit polls and the recorded vote:
(2-party exit poll in parenthesis)
Year Democrat Recorded EPoll 2pty Adjusted
Average 46.9 48.8 (52.7) 48.9
1988 Dukakis 45.6 46.8 (47.3) 48.7
1992 Clinton 43.0 45.7 (56.8) 45.7
1996 Clinton 49.2 50.2 (55.8) 51.4
2000 Gore 48.4 49.4 (51.4) 49.7
2004 Kerry 48.3 51.8 (52.3) 49.0
Adding Kerry's 75% share of 3.4m uncounted votes brings his final total to 67.4m (53.5%). This is quite close to the Election Calculator model which determined that he won by 53.2-45.4%.
The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) assuming 5% voter mortality and a 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am Composite NEP vote shares were used to calculate the vote.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final5mRecordedVotes.htm
2004 Final National Exit Poll
(13660 respondents)
Voted 2000
Total Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.8 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.2 9.4 0.2
Kerry 45.3 37% 90% 9% 1% 40.7 4.1 0.5
Bush 52.6 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.7 47.9 0.0
Other 3.7 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.6 0.8 0.3
Total 122.3 100% 48.5% 50.7% 0.8% 59.3 62.1 0.9
Margin -2.7
Preliminary National Exit Poll
(12:22am, 13047 respondents)
Total Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.8 17% 57% 41% 2% 11.9 8.5 0.4
Gore 47.7 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.4 3.8 0.5
Bush 50.1 41% 10% 90% 0% 5.0 45.1 0.0
Other 3.7 3% 64% 17% 19% 2.3 0.6 0.7
Total 122.3 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3% 62.6 58.1 1.6
Margin 4.5
Calculated True Vote
Total Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 26.4 21% 57% 41% 2% 15.1 10.8 0.5
Gore 49.0 39% 91% 8% 1% 44.6 3.9 0.5
Bush 46.5 37% 10% 90% 0% 4.7 41.9 0.0
Other 3.8 3% 64% 17% 19% 2.4 0.6 0.7
Total 125.7 100% 53.1% 45.5% 1.4% 66.7 57.3 1.7
Margin 9.5
Landslide Denied: A Summary of Statistical Anomalies
TruthIsAll
Dec. 11, 2008
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008StatAnomalies.htm
This analysis updates "2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll".
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm
Just because Obama won does not mean that fraud did not occur and that the recorded vote represents the True Vote. An analysis based on a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and Final 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares indicates that Obama more than doubled his recorded 9.36m vote margin.
Election bloggers and media pundits don’t discuss the following anomalies in 2008; neither did they discuss them in 2000 and 2004:
1) Final National pre-election polls: Likely voter (LV) polls understated Obama’s projected share (7.5% LV margin vs. 10% RV).
2) Final State pre-election polls: Unallocated undecided voters reduced Obama’s projected share.
3) Final National Exit Poll: Impossible Bush/Kerry/Other returning voter share (46/37/4) in 2008 reduced Obama’s True Vote by 3-4%.
4) Battleground State Exit Polls: Recorded vote discrepancy exceeded the MoE in 6 of 15 states for McCain (4.4% margin discrepancy).
5) Late recorded votes: Obama won 59.2-37.7% of 9.4 million late votes recorded after Election Day, but just 52.3% of 121.2m on Election Day.
6) Uncounted votes: Although still unknown for 2008, 70-80% are always Democratic, resulting in a 1-3% reduction in vote margin.
The 2008 Election Model (EM) projection exactly matched the 365-173 electoral vote and was close to matching the current popular vote share (52.8-45.7%). The model projected that Obama would receive 365.3 expected electoral votes with a 53.1-44.9% share. But the landslide was denied. See 2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll.
National Pre-election Polls: Registered (RV) vs. Likely Vote (LV) and Undecided Voters
Obama had a higher winning margin (10.0%) in the final national registered voter (RV) polls than in the likely-voter (LV) polls (7.25%). The unadjusted average pre-election poll (51-44%) understated his projected margin. Assuming he captured 75% of the undecided vote, he led the average RV poll by 13% (55.7-42.7%) and 9% in the average LV poll (53.8-44.6%).
Like Kerry, Obama was the de-facto challenger: McCain supported an unpopular incumbent. The challenger typically gets 75-90% of the late undecided vote, especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 22% approval rating.
The Final 2008 National Exit Poll indicates that returning Bush 2004 voters comprised 46% of the 2008 electorate and Kerry voters 37%. Applying the 46% mix to the recorded vote, there were 60.1m (.46*130.7) returning Bush voters. Bush had 62.0m recorded votes. Approximately 3.0m (4.8%) died and another 3.0m did not vote in 2008. Therefore, the 2008 Final NEP is impossible - as it was in 2004. And if Bush only had 57.5m votes, as per the unadjusted exit poll (Kerry won by 52-47%), 54.5m Bush voters at most could have voted.
2008 Final National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote, 17836 respondents)
Obama Margin: 9.3m
Voted Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.0 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.1 4.6 0.3
42.5% Kerry 48.4 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.0 4.4 1.0
52.9% Bush 60.1 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.2 49.3 0.6
4.6% Other 5.2 4% 66% 24% 10% 3.5 1.3 0.5
113.7 Total 130.7 100% 52.6% 45.5% 1.9% 68.8 59.5 2.4
Scenario 1: Returning voter mix based on 2004 recorded vote
2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008
Obama Margin: 17.4m
2004 Voted Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.6 15.3% 71% 27% 2% 14.7 5.6 0.4
48.3% Kerry 56.0 41.6% 89% 9% 2% 49.9 5.0 1.1
50.7% Bush 56.9 42.3% 17% 82% 1% 9.7 46.7 0.6
1.0% Other 1.1 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.8 0.3 0.1
Total 134.8 100.% 55.6% 42.7% 1.6% 75.0 57.6 2.2
Scenario 2: Returning voter mix based on 2004 unadjusted exit poll
2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008
Obama Margin: 23.4m
2004 Voted Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.7 15.4% 71% 27% 2% 14.70 5.59 0.41
52.0% Kerry 60.1 44.6% 89% 9% 2% 53.49 5.41 1.20
47.0% Bush 52.8 39.2% 17% 82% 1% 8.98 43.31 0.53
1.0% Other 1.1 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.75 0.27 0.11
Total 134.8 100% 57.8% 40.5% 1.7% 77.9 54.6 2.3
There were 48.4m (.37*130.7) returning Kerry voters. He had 59.0 million recorded votes in 2004. Since approximately 2.8m died, the 2008 Final implies that 48.4m of 56.2m (86.0%) Kerry voters still living returned to vote in 2008.
How could there have been 11.7m more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters? Bush won by 3.0m votes. Since the impossible Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote count, the vote count must also have been impossible.
The impossible 46/37 Bush/Kerry returning voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP is nothing new. The 2004 Final reported a 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter share of the 2004 electorate. But the Bush 43% share was also mathematically and physically impossible since it meant that Bush had 52.6 million votes in 2000; but he had just 50.5m and approximately 2.5 million died. Therefore, only 48m former Bush voters were alive in 2004. The 2004 Final overstated the number of returning Bush 2000 voters by more than 4.5 million.
The Election Calculator model was used to calculate the 2008 True Vote using Final 2008 NEP vote shares for two returning voter scenario assumptions as above, but also including the impact of 2004 voter mortality, uncounted votes and 2004 voter turnout in 2008:
The first scenario used the recorded 2004 vote to determine the returning voter mix (Bush won by 50.73-48.27%).
Obama won this (unlikely) scenario by 17.4 million votes – an 8 million increase over his recorded margin.
The second scenario used the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry by 52-47%).
Obama won this (most likely) scenario by 23.4 million - a 14 million increase over his recorded margin.
The same differential occurred in 2004 when Kerry lost the recorded vote by 51-48m and the Election Calculator determined that he won the True Vote by 67-57m. A feasible returning voter mix was based on a 2000 voter annual mortality rate of 1.2% and an assumed 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am NEP vote shares were used rather than the Final because the Bush shares were also inflated in the Final (along with the Bush returning voter mix) to force a match to the recorded vote.
Battleground Exit Poll Discrepancies: 6 of 15 states beyond the margin of error
Preliminary exit polls in 15 battleground states gave Obama a 53.9% average share compared to his 51.8% recorded share.
The 2.0% state exit poll MoE was exceeded in 6 states in favor of McCain: FL, MI, MN, MO, OH and PA
The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in at least 6 of 15 states in favor of McCain is 1 in 994,000.
The probability is calculated by the Excel binomial distribution function: = 1– BINOMDIST (5, 15, .025, true)
(.025 is the probability that the exit poll discrepancy would exceed the MoE for McCain in any given state)
Assuming a 15-state aggregate 1.5% MoE, the probability of a 4.4% margin difference is 0.19% (1 in 521).
The probability is calculated by the Excel normal distribution function: = NORMDIST (.5248, .5466, .015/1.96,true)
(.5248 is Obama’s 2-party recorded vote share and .5466 his 2-party exit poll share)
Initial vs. Late Votes: a consistent 10-15% discrepancy in the Democratic margin
Dave Leip's Election Atlas indicates that 130.70m votes have been recorded. Obama currently leads by 69.06-59.70m, a 52.84-45.68% share. On Election Day 121.2m votes were recorded and he led by 63.44-56.13m (52.3-46.3%). Therefore, Obama has a 59.2-37.7% share of the last 9.5m votes. Gore and Kerry also won the late votes with margins that far exceeded their initial vote shares. Notice a pattern here?
In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic 2-party late vote was 7% higher than the initial share.
On Election Day 2004, 116.7m votes were recorded; Bush led by 51.2-48.3%.
Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8m late 2-party votes, a 10.4% increase in margin.
There were 3.4m uncounted votes.
On Election Day 2000, 102.6m votes were recorded; Gore led by 48.3-48.1% (50.1% of the 2-party vote).
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7m late 2-party votes, an 11.0% increase in margin.
There were 5.4m uncounted votes.
In 2004, there was a 12% discrepancy in margin between the initial 116.3 million votes and the final 6.0. This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m).
The Initial and Late Vote discrepancy is a red flag. It indicates that the 2004 election was decided when 116m votes were recorded; election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes were irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner. The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 116 million recorded votes.
There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. The correlation for states with more than 40k late votes was a much stronger 0.93.
This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote:
1) High correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) Small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) Higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial recorded votes
How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?
Uncounted Votes: millions of Democratic votes are never counted in every election
According to the 2004 U.S. Vote Census, 122.3m votes were recorded out of 125.7m cast; in 2000, 105.4m were recorded of 110.8m cast. Democrats traditionally win 70-80% of the uncounted vote.
The latest election results show Obama leading by 67.6-58.8m votes with a total of 128.1m recorded. That’s a solid mandate, but his True Vote was better than that. The tremendous GOTV and new registration effort has not resulted in the expected increase in the recorded vote from 2004. There was a 17m net increase in recorded votes from 2000 to 2004 (105m to 122m). The media should be asking the questions. Why is the recorded count only 128.11m when a 140m+ turnout was forecast? How many touch screen votes were lost in cyberspace; how many optical scanned or provisional ballots were lost?
Historically, about 75% of uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, provisional and absentee) are Democratic. Therefore, if 143m votes were actually cast, Obama’s current margin would rival Johnson (’64), Nixon (’72) and Reagan (’84). But we will have to wait until the Census Bureau publishes its 2008 vote survey to know how many votes were cast.
Exit poll critics claim that the large (5.4 WPE) 1992 exit poll discrepancy proves that the 2004 discrepancy (7.1 WPE) was not unique; therefore it is "crap" and "bad science" to conclude that elections are stolen based on unadjusted exit polls. Critics claim there were no allegations of fraud in 1992 when the WPE was 5.4. They fail to mention or are unaware that Clinton beat Bush I by 44.9-39.1m (43.0-37.4%) but that 9.4m votes were uncounted. Approximately 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic in every election. When the 9.4m uncounted votes are added back, the adjusted vote is 52.0-41.5m. The 45.7-36.4% vote share exactly matched the unadjusted exit poll.
Uncounted votes have steadily declined as percent of total votes cast - from 10.4% in 1988 to 2.7% in 2004. When uncounted votes are included in order to derive total votes cast for the five elections from 1988-2004, the adjusted Democratic vote is within 0.1% of the unadjusted exit poll share.
In every one of the last five elections the unadjusted Democratic exit poll share exceeded the recorded vote. But which of the five elections stands out from the rest? Only in 2004 did the ADJUSTED vote come up short of the EXIT POLL share. The 2004 exit poll discrepancies were different in kind and scope from those of the prior four elections. Unlike 1988-2000, the 2004 discrepancies cannot be explained by uncounted votes alone.
Comparing the adjusted vote to the aggregate state exit polls and the recorded vote:
(2-party exit poll in parenthesis)
Year Democrat Recorded EPoll 2pty Adjusted
Average 46.9 48.8 (52.7) 48.9
1988 Dukakis 45.6 46.8 (47.3) 48.7
1992 Clinton 43.0 45.7 (56.8) 45.7
1996 Clinton 49.2 50.2 (55.8) 51.4
2000 Gore 48.4 49.4 (51.4) 49.7
2004 Kerry 48.3 51.8 (52.3) 49.0
Adding Kerry's 75% share of 3.4m uncounted votes brings his final total to 67.4m (53.5%). This is quite close to the Election Calculator model which determined that he won by 53.2-45.4%.
The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) assuming 5% voter mortality and a 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am Composite NEP vote shares were used to calculate the vote.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final5mRecordedVotes.htm
2004 Final National Exit Poll
(13660 respondents)
Voted 2000
Total Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.8 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.2 9.4 0.2
Kerry 45.3 37% 90% 9% 1% 40.7 4.1 0.5
Bush 52.6 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.7 47.9 0.0
Other 3.7 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.6 0.8 0.3
Total 122.3 100% 48.5% 50.7% 0.8% 59.3 62.1 0.9
Margin -2.7
Preliminary National Exit Poll
(12:22am, 13047 respondents)
Total Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.8 17% 57% 41% 2% 11.9 8.5 0.4
Gore 47.7 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.4 3.8 0.5
Bush 50.1 41% 10% 90% 0% 5.0 45.1 0.0
Other 3.7 3% 64% 17% 19% 2.3 0.6 0.7
Total 122.3 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3% 62.6 58.1 1.6
Margin 4.5
Calculated True Vote
Total Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 26.4 21% 57% 41% 2% 15.1 10.8 0.5
Gore 49.0 39% 91% 8% 1% 44.6 3.9 0.5
Bush 46.5 37% 10% 90% 0% 4.7 41.9 0.0
Other 3.8 3% 64% 17% 19% 2.4 0.6 0.7
Total 125.7 100% 53.1% 45.5% 1.4% 66.7 57.3 1.7
Margin 9.5