The True Vote can be approximated.
Let's keep it simple - like an Income Statement

Note: values are net of corresponding Bush totals

Gore 2000
0.54 Recorded Vote Margin
2.43 Uncounted Votes (net)
======
2.97 Gore True Vote Margin
(0.15) Gore voter mortality
(0.05) Did not return to vote in 2004
======
2.77 Returning Gore margin

Kerry 2004
2.77 Returning Gore margin
4.52 New Voters (did not vote in 2000)
1.92 Returning Nader/other 3rd parties
======
9.21 Kerry True Vote Margin


Rather than just assume the base case, let's calculate vote shares over a range of
scenarios that are biased in favor of Bush (compared to the more-likely base case).

Sensitivity Analysis
Table 1: Uncounted votes and new voter shares
Table 2: Turnout of LIVING Gore and Bush voters
Table 3: Shares of new and returning third-party voters

In the base-case scenario, Kerry wins by 9.21 million votes with a 53.2% share.

Worst-case Scenarios

Table 1: Kerry wins by 5.44 million votes with a 51.7% share.
(Kerry 54% share of new voters; Gore 55% of uncounted votes)

Table 2: Kerry wins by 6.71 million votes with a 52.2% share.
(Gore 2000 voter 92% turnout in 2004; Bush 2000 voter 98% turnout)

Table 3: Kerry wins by 5.77 million votes with a 51.8% share.
(Kerry 54% share of new voters; Kerry 50% share of returning Nader/other)

[code]

Assumptions Gore Bush Other Rationale
Uncounted share 70% 25% 5% 50%+ of 5.4m net uncounted in minority locs
Returning Voter 98% 98% 98% Turnout required for 22m new voters in 2004
Mortality (4yr) 5% 5% 5% U.S. mortality data (5.5m from 2000-2004)

Returning Gore voter defection to Bush is assumed equal to Bush defection to Kerry
- a wash. The 2004 National Exit Poll indicated a net 2% defection to Kerry.
The differential would increase his base case margin from 9.21m to 9.95m.

National Exit Poll (7:33pm)
Share of Kerry Bush Other
New Voters 59% 39% 2% New and others who did not vote in 2000
Third-party 65% 16% 19% Shares of Nader/other voters from 2000

2000 Total Gore Bush Other Margin
Recorded 105.41 51.00 50.46 3.95 0.54
Uncounted 5.40 3.78 1.35 0.27 2.43

Cast 110.81 54.78 51.81 4.22 2.97 (True Vote Margin)
Share 100.0% 49.4% 46.8% 3.8% 2.6%

Died 5.54 2.74 2.59 0.21 -.15 (5% mortality)
Alive 105.27 52.04 49.22 4.01 2.82
DNV 2.11 1.04 0.99 0.08 -.05 (2% did not vote in '04)

2004 Total Kerry Bush Other Margin
Turnout 103.16 51.00 48.23 3.93 2.77 (returning 2000 voters)
Other 3.93 2.55 0.63 0.75 1.92 (allocate Other returning voters)
New 22.58 13.32 8.80 0.45 4.52 (did not vote in 2000)

Cast 125.74 66.88 57.67 1.20 9.21 (True Vote Margin)
Share 100.0% 53.2% 45.9% 0.95% 7.3%

Recorded 122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23 -3.01 (Recorded Vote Margin)
Share 100.0% 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% -2.4%

Diff:
Vote 3.44 7.85 -4.37 -.03 12.22 (True - Recorded Margin)
Share - 4.9% -4.8% -.05% 9.7%
__________________________________________________________


* indicates base case
Table 1

Kerry
%New Gore share of Uncounted
55% 60% 65% 70%
Kerry Share
62% 53.1% 53.3% 53.5% 53.7%
59% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0% 53.2% *
57% 52.2% 52.4% 52.6% 52.8%
54% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3%
Margin
62% 9.06 9.56 10.06 10.56
59% 7.70 8.20 8.71 9.21 *
57% 6.80 7.30 7.80 8.31
54% 5.44 5.95 6.45 6.95

_____________________________________________________________
Table 2

Bush
Turnout Gore Turnout
92% 94% 96% 98%
Kerry Share
92% 53.5% 53.9% 54.2% 54.6%
94% 53.1% 53.4% 53.8% 54.1%
96% 52.6% 53.0% 53.3% 53.6%
98% 52.2% 52.5% 52.8% 53.2% *
Margin
92% 10.19 11.02 11.85 12.68
94% 9.03 9.86 10.69 11.53
96% 7.87 8.70 9.54 10.37
98% 6.71 7.54 8.38 9.21 *

_____________________________________________________________


Table 3

Kerry
%New Kerry share of Nader/Other
50% 55% 60% 65%
Kerry Share
62% 53.3% 53.4% 53.6% 53.7%
59% 52.7% 52.9% 53.0% 53.2% *
57% 52.4% 52.5% 52.7% 52.8%
54% 51.8% 52.0% 52.1% 52.3%
Margin
62% 9.39 9.78 10.17 10.56
59% 8.03 8.42 8.82 9.21 *
57% 7.13 7.52 7.91 8.31
54% 5.77 6.17 6.56 6.95


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