TruthIsAll
08-11-2010, 09:54 PM
Analysis of the Oregon mail-in voting system vs. National, Battleground states, New York and California
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Aug. 26, 2010
Go here for the data tables:
http://richardcharnin.com/OregonVotingSystem.htm
This statistical analysis of Oregon’s voting history provides evidence that the vote-by-mail system introduced in 1998 has been a success. In 2000, it closely matched the national recorded vote, as expected. In 2004, Kerry’s recorded vote share in Oregon was close to the pre-election poll and the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate (52-47%). But it was 3% higher than his recorded national and average battleground shares.
Bush improved on his 2000 recorded vote share not only in the battleground states, but also in solidly Democratic New York. But Oregon went against the grain and shifted from Gore to Kerry. Kerry won Oregon by 51.4-47.2%. His margin improved by 3.7% over Gore, primarily from his 65-13% edge in returning Nader voters and 59-39% margin in new voters. The pre-election National, Oregon and Battleground polls, adjusted for undecided voters, projected that Kerry would win by 51-48%. Post-election state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry won by 3-7%. The True Vote model indicates that he won by 53.3-45.7% (nearly 10 million votes) assuming a zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters.
Did Oregon’s mail-in system miscount the votes? To believe it did, you must also believe that Bush did in fact win an honest election and that the national and state exit polls that indicated Kerry won were wrong. But what if the exit polls were correct and votes were miscounted in the other non-paper ballot states that used electronic voting machines, punched cards or levers? Then one would then have to conclude that Oregon’s vote-by-mail system worked – and that the others did not.
1988-2008 Vote Shares
National State Exit Oregon Oregon
Dem 2-pty Recorded Share Aggregate Recorded Share Post-election survey
National Oregon Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other
2008 53.7 58.4 52.9 45.6 1.5 na na na 56.7 40.4 2.9 56.0 42.8 1.2
2004 48.8 52.1 48.3 50.7 1.0 52.0 47.0 1.0 51.3 47.2 1.5 52.2 46.3 1.5
2000 50.3 50.2 48.4 47.9 3.7 49.4 46.9 3.7 47.0 46.5 6.5 47.8 45.9 6.3
1996 54.7 54.7 49.2 40.7 10.1 50.2 39.8 10.0 47.2 39.1 13.7 48.4 37.9 13.7
1992 53.5 56.7 43.0 37.4 19.6 45.7 34.8 19.5 42.5 32.5 25.0 49.3 25.7 25.0
1988 46.0 52.4 45.6 53.4 1.0 46.7 52.3 1.0 51.3 46.6 2.1 55.0 42.9 2.1
The National, Oregon and Battleground pre-election projection and post-election exit poll shares closely match.
This confirms that Oregon is representative of the National and Battleground electorate.
Therefore, we must conclude that the election was stolen in the Battleground states and Oregon’s vote by mail system is virtually fraud-proof.
True Vote Methodology
The analysis tables provide a reasonable approximation of the National, Oregon and Battleground True Vote shares.
Given 2000 and 2004 votes recorded and cast, the True Vote calculation assumes:
1. Kerry and Gore had 75% of the uncounted (cast - recorded) votes
2. Annual 1.25% voter mortality (5% in the four years between elections)
3. Equal 98% turnout of returning 2000 voters in 2004.
4. Equal Gore and Bush returning voter defection rates (they cancel each other).
5. Kerry won returning Nader voters by 65-13% over Bush based on the National Exit Poll.
6. New 2004 voters is the difference between 2004 votes cast and returning 2000 voters.
7. Kerry won new voters by 59-39% nationally. His DNV share in each state is calculated as:
State DNV share = 0.59* (1+state exit poll share - 0.5197)*new voters, where .5197 is Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (national) share.
For instance, in NY, Kerry’s share of 1347k DNV is 894k = 0.59*(1+.645-0.5197).
A simplifying assumption is that there was zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters (they cancelled each other). However the 12:22am National Exit Poll of 13,047 respondents indicates that 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry and only 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. The 2004 True Vote analysis shown below indicates that he had a 53.7% national share assuming a net 2% defection as opposed to his 53.3% assuming zero net defection. See the Recursive True Vote Model.
Kerry True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
Two groups of three tables display the effect of various model input assumptions on Kerry’s vote share. The margin of error is less than 1.5%.
-New Voters and returning Nader/other voters
Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground True Vote shares over a 54-63% range of new voters and 61-69% of returning Nader/other voters.
Kerry wins all worst case scenarios (54% of new voters and 61% of returning Nader voters).
-Returning Gore and Bush Voter Turnout
Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground vote shares for 91-99% turnout of living former Gore and Bush voters.
Kerry wins all worst case turnout scenarios (91% of living Gore voters and 99% of living Bush voters).
Oregon vs. New York and California
National
In 2000, Gore won the recorded vote by 48.4-47.9%.
In 2004, although returning Nader voters broke heavily for Kerry by 65-13% and new voters by 59-39%, Bush won by 50.7-48.3%.That is not plausible.
Oregon
Gore won by 47.0-46.5%.
With returning Nader and new voters breaking for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin increased to 51.4-47.2%. That is plausible.
Kerry led by 52.2-46.3% in the exit pollster telephone poll. That is plausible.
New York
Gore won by 60.2-35.2%.
Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin declined to 58.4-40.1%. That is not plausible.
Kerry led by 64.5-34.0% in the exit poll. That is plausible.
California
Gore won by 53.4-41.6%.
Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin declined to 54.3-44.1%. That is not plausible.
Kerry led by 60.1-38.6% in the exit poll. That is plausible.
Why did Kerry’s margin increase in Oregon, a battleground state, and decline in strongly Democratic California and New York?
Why was the exit poll so far off in California (11.6 WPE)? It voted 29% on DRE touch screens, 66% on optical scanners and 4% on punch cards.
Why was the exit poll so far off in New York (12.2 WPE)? It voted exclusively on lever machines.
Why were the exit polls so far off (7.5 WPE) in the Battleground states? They voted on machines (see the chart below).
Florida and Ohio
In Florida 2000, there were approximately 185,000 spoiled punch cards (under-punched and over-punched).
According to the Census, 43,000 more votes were cast than recorded.
Where did the 142,000 extra votes come from?
Bush won Florida by 537 votes.
In Florida 2004, approximately 238,000 more votes were recorded than cast.
How many were uncounted?
Bush won by 380,000 votes.
In Ohio 2004, according to the Census, 143,000 more votes were recorded than cast.
Approximately 350,000 were uncounted (see Was the 2004 Election Stolen? by RFK, Jr.)
How many votes were switched?
Bush won by 119,000 votes.
Oregon’s Pre-Election Polls Uniquely Matched the Recorded and True Vote
Final-week state pre-election polls were virtually all Likely Voter (LV) subsets of the full Registered Voter (RV) samples. Likely Voter subsets largely exclude "new" voters: first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election. The Democrats won ‘new voters’ by an average 14% margin (before Obama’s whopping 44%). Projections that ignore RV polls and focus solely on LV polls will inevitably underestimate the Democratic share, especially in heavy-turnout elections such as record-setting 2004 and 2008. In 2004, the LV polls understated voter turnout by 6%. Gross underestimates would be expected from political sites by displaying only LV polls and failing to allocate undecided voters.
Mainstream pollsters allocated undecided voters to Kerry by 2:1-to-4:1. Kerry’s projected national LV poll share was 1-2% lower than the projected RV share. In New York and California the pre-election poll projections were a virtual match to the recorded vote-count share but 5-6% below Kerry’s exit poll and True Vote shares. The same LV/RV mismatch occurred in 2008. Obama had 53% based on LV polls but a 57% projected share based on RV national polls after allocating undecided voters.
In Oregon, voting by mail results in high turnout and the pre-election polls are RVs by definition. Kerry led by 50-44% in the final poll. After undecided voter allocation (UVA), he was projected to win by 53-45%. The Oregon projection matched the True Vote Model and was within 1.6% of his recorded share.
In the final weeks prior to the 2004 and 2008 elections, national LV polls were displayed on political websites; many did not allocate undecided voters. By virtue of its vote by mail system, Oregon’s RV pre-election polls undermine the media’s objective of forcing voters into believing bogus vote counts. The media primes voters before the election with LV-only projections. Then it covers up the fraud post-election with final "exit polls" that are always forced to match the counts. In 2008 National Election Pool (NEP) consortium did not release the preliminary national and unadjusted state exit polls. Why not?
1988 - 2008: Patterns of Discrepancies Before and After Voting-By-Mail
Note: vote shares are two-party to eliminate third-party (Perot/Nader) effects.
Before Mail-In Ballots
1988 - Bush was Vice President.
Dukakis had 52.4% in Oregon and a 46.0% National share – a very big 6.2% discrepancy.
He did 3.7% better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.
1992 - Bush was President.
Clinton had 56.7% in Oregon and a 53.5% National share - a 3.2% discrepancy.
He did a whopping 6.8% better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.
1996 - Clinton was President.
Clinton had 54.7% Oregon and a 54.7% National share - a perfect match.
He did 1.2% better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.
After Mail-In Ballots
2000 - Clinton was President.
Gore had 50.2% in Oregon and a 50.3% National share – a perfect match
2004 - Bush was President.
Kerry had 52.1% in Oregon and a 48.8% National share - a 3.3% discrepancy.
2008 - Bush was President.
Obama had 58.4% in Oregon and a 53.7% National share - a 4.7% discrepancy.
- Is it just a coincidence that when Clinton was the incumbent, there was an exact match between the Oregon and National vote shares?
- Is it just a coincidence that when Bush was the incumbent, there was a 4.4% average discrepancy between the Oregon and National vote shares?
- If the True Vote Model is correct and Oregon reflects the national electorate, then what does this say about our electoral system?
Oregon County Vote Change Correlation
With the change to mail-in ballots in 1998, there has been a noticeable decline in the volatility of changes in Oregon county vote shares from election to election. Before the switch to mail, there was a 0.93 correlation between 1996 and 2000 county vote share and a 5.0% standard deviation.
After the switch to mail, there was a near-perfect 0.98 correlation between 2000 and 2004 county vote shares and a 2.2% standard deviation in percentage vote change. There was an even better 0.99 correlation for 2004 and 2008 and a very low1.5% standard deviation in percentage vote change. The system is getting better and better.
The statistical analysis makes intuitive sense. Since the battleground states closely mirror the national electorate as a whole, Oregon’s recorded vote share should have been close to that of the other battleground states, but it was the only one that deviated sharply to Kerry. Oregon’s voting system is transparent. Optically scanned machine counts are verified by random hand-counts. Washington has also recently implemented a mail-in system.
Touch screen voting machine precincts avoid paper ballots; votes can be switched locally or at the invisible central tabulators. Optical scanners are a step in the right direction, but the system is ripe for fraud without mandating a random hand-count of selected precincts like they do in Oregon. Punch card machines can void the vote by double and triple-punching after the polls close. As in Florida 2000, election officials are quick to blame “stupid” voters if there are “problems” with the machines.
If they use lever machines, as in NY and PA, there are no paper ballots to verify the vote; too few machines can be placed in heavily Democratic precincts; or bad machines that will likely break down will cause voters to leave the polling booth; the levers can be “stuck”, like they were for Bush in 2004; votes can be switched by the central tabulators; lever gears can be shaved. There are many ways to skin the cat. In NY, Gore, Kerry and Obama each enjoyed a 7% higher late (paper ballot) vote share than they did on Election Day (lever votes). What does that tell us?
Here is an amazing statistic that very few are even aware of: Obama had 52% of the 121 million votes recorded on Election Day and a whopping 59% of the 10 million late (paper ballot) votes. What are the odds of the 7% discrepancy? What is the margin of error in a poll with 10 million respondents?
Since Kerry won new voters by 59-39% and returning Nader voters by 65-13%, to believe the recorded vote shares, you must also believe that returning Gore voters defected to Bush at a much higher rate than Bush voters to Kerry. But according to the National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush and 8% of Gore voters defected.
The above analysis indicates that Oregon’s mail-in system works just fine. But it would be greatly appreciated if interested readers found flaws in the assumptions, logic or the math and presented contrary statistical and/or anecdotal evidence. The analysis can then be forwarded to Oregon’s election officials who may then decide to scrap vote by mail and convert to HAVA-compliant DREs, Optical scanners, Punch cards or Levers. Advise them to recount only those elections in which the vote shares differ by less than .001%.
If you believe the recorded 2004 vote was accurate in the battleground states, then you must also believe that…
1- Bush won a fair election.
2- The electronic and mechanical voting machines accurately counted the votes.
3- There was little or no fraud.
4- Election reform efforts are meaningless.
5- There is nothing wrong with our national voting system.
6- Oregon’s voting system was rigged for Kerry since it was the only battleground state he won that shifted sharply to him from Gore.
7- Pre-election state and national polls that projected Kerry would win by 51-48% after undecided voters were allocated were wrong.
8- Unadjusted and preliminary state and national exit polls that had Kerry winning by 5-7% were wrong.
9- The Oregon telephone survey that showed Kerry winning a 52.3% share was wrong.
10- Either returning Nader voters defected to Bush and/or he won a majority of new voters and/or more returning Gore voters than Bush voters defected.
11 -The National Exit Poll which had Kerry winning returning Nader voters by 65-13% and new voters by 59-39% were wrong.
12- The Oregon vote must have been padded for Kerry (51.4%) and Obama (56.7%).
13- Election officials in Florida, Ohio, NY and other states did a great job in making sure that the voting machines were not tampered with.
14- A problem with vote by mail is the elimination of exit polls. Oregon needs exit polls even though they are usually wrong.
15- The True Vote Model is flawed since it closely matched the unadjusted National, Oregon and Battleground exit polls.
16- There is nothing wrong with the standard policy of forcing final state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote.
17- Final 1992, 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were correct: there were millions more returning Bush voters from the prior election than were alive.
If you believe that vote-by-mail systems are vulnerable to election official fraud or voter fraud, then lobby state officials to stop the vote-by-mail trend. Otherwise, fraud-free HAVA-compliant voting systems now working just fine in all the other states will become clones of Oregon and Washington.
Those opposed to mail-in voting cite advantages in voting at the precinct: voters can get to see friends and make new ones, take time off from work, project a patriotic image by voting in full view, look smart by touching the computer screen, exercise their legs while waiting to vote and get some cheap coffee.
Analysis Summary
Recorded National Oregon Battleground
Gore 48.38% 46.96% 48.05%
Kerry 48.27% 51.35% 50.62%
Swing -0.11% 4.39% 2.57%
Kerry National Oregon Battleground
Pre-elect 51.05% 53.33% 51.82%
Exit Poll 51.97% 52.20% 52.86%
True Vote 53.26% 52.96% 52.62%
Deviations
Exit-Rec 3.70% 0.85% 2.24%
True-Rec 4.99% 1.61% 1.99%
True-Proj 2.21% -0.37% 0.80%
True-Exit 1.29% 0.76% -0.24%
Kerry True Vote Share Sensitivity
Share of National Bush National
Nader Share of DNV Turnout Gore Voter Turnout
53.26% 54% 57% 59% 61% 63% 53.26% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99%
69% 52.48% 53.02% 53.38% 53.73% 54.09% 95% 53.44% 53.61% 53.78% 53.95% 54.12%
67% 52.42% 52.96% 53.32% 53.68% 54.03% 96% 53.21% 53.38% 53.55% 53.72% 53.89%
65% 52.36% 52.90% 53.26% 53.62% 53.98% 97% 52.98% 53.15% 53.32% 53.49% 53.66%
63% 52.30% 52.84% 53.20% 53.56% 53.92% 98% 52.75% 52.92% 53.09% 53.26% 53.43%
61% 52.24% 52.78% 53.14% 53.50% 53.86% 99% 52.52% 52.69% 52.86% 53.03% 53.20%
Oregon Oregon
52.96% 54% 57% 59% 61% 63% 52.96% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99%
69% 52.05% 52.72% 53.16% 53.60% 54.05% 95% 53.15% 53.31% 53.46% 53.61% 53.76%
67% 51.95% 52.61% 53.06% 53.50% 53.95% 96% 52.94% 53.09% 53.24% 53.39% 53.55%
65% 51.85% 52.51% 52.96% 53.40% 53.84% 97% 52.72% 52.87% 53.02% 53.17% 53.33%
63% 51.74% 52.41% 52.86% 53.30% 53.74% 98% 52.50% 52.65% 52.80% 52.96% 53.11%
61% 51.64% 52.31% 52.75% 53.20% 53.64% 99% 52.28% 52.43% 52.59% 52.74% 52.89%
Battleground Battleground
52.62% 54% 57% 59% 61% 63% 52.62% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99%
69% 51.69% 52.31% 52.73% 53.14% 53.55% 95% 52.83% 52.99% 53.15% 53.31% 53.47%
67% 51.64% 52.26% 52.67% 53.09% 53.50% 96% 52.60% 52.76% 52.92% 53.08% 53.24%
65% 51.58% 52.20% 52.62% 53.03% 53.44% 97% 52.37% 52.53% 52.69% 52.85% 53.01%
63% 51.53% 52.15% 52.56% 52.98% 53.39% 98% 52.14% 52.30% 52.46% 52.62% 52.78%
61% 51.47% 52.09% 52.51% 52.92% 53.33% 99% 51.91% 52.07% 52.23% 52.39% 52.55%
2004 Battleground state vote shares before and after allocating new and returning Nader 2000 voters
___________________________________________________________________________________
National Oregon New York California
2000 Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other
Record 51004 50456 3950 720 714 100 4108 2403 311 5861 4567 538
Share 48.4% 47.9% 3.7% 47.0% 46.5% 6.5% 60.2% 35.2% 4.6% 53.4% 41.6% 4.9%
Cast 55066 51810 3950 724 715 100 4244 2449 311 6253 4698 538
Alive 52313 49220 3753 684 678 95 3903 2283 295 5568 4339 511
Turnout 51266 48235 3677 671 664 93 3824 2238 290 5457 4252 501
Nader/oth 2390 478 809 61 12 20 188 38 64 326 65 110
DNV 2k 13309 8797 451 241 159 8 894 459 27 1410 792 44
Total 66965 57510 1260 972 835 29 4907 2735 91 7192 5109 154
2004
TrueVote 53.3% 45.7% 1.0% 53.0% 45.5% 1.6% 63.5% 35.4% 1.2% 57.7% 41.0% 1.2%
Record 59028 62041 1224 943 867 27 4314 2963 114 6745 5510 165
Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% 51.35% 47.19% 1.5% 58.4% 40.1% 1.5% 54.3% 44.4% 1.3%
Swing -0.1% 2.9% -2.7% 4.4% 0.7% -5.1% -1.8% 4.9% -3.0% 0.9% 2.7% -3.6%
ExitPoll 52.0% 47.0% 1.0% 52.2% 46.3% 1.5% 64.5% 34.0% 1.5% 60.1% 38.6% 1.3%
EP- True -1.3% 1.3% 0.0% -0.8% 0.8% -0.1% 1.0% -1.4% 0.3% 2.4% -2.4% 0.1%
EP-Record 3.7% -3.7% 0.0% 0.9% -0.9% 0.0% 6.1% -6.1% 0.0% 5.8% -5.8% 0.0%
Pre-elect 47.9% 46.9% 1.0% 50.0% 44.0% 1.6% 57.0% 39.0% 1.2% 49.0% 42.0% 1.2%
Projected 51.0% 47.9% 1.0% 53.3% 45.1% 1.6% 59.1% 39.7% 1.2% 54.8% 43.9% 1.2%
EP-Proj 0.9% -0.9% 0.0% -1.1% 1.2% -0.1% 5.4% -5.7% 0.3% 5.3% -5.3% 0.1%
___________________________________________________________________________________
Florida Ohio Iowa Missouri
2000 Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other
Record 2913 2913 138 2186 2351 168 639 634 42 1111 1190 59
Share 48.8% 48.8% 2.3% 46.5% 50.0% 3.6% 48.5% 48.2% 3.2% 47.1% 50.4% 2.5%
Cast 3056 2961 138 2274 2381 168 674 646 42 1335 1265 59
Alive 2903 2812 131 2161 2262 159 641 614 40 1269 1201 56
Turnout 2845 2756 128 2118 2216 156 628 602 39 1243 1177 55
Nader/oth 84 17 28 102 20 34 26 5 9 36 7 12
DNV 2k 1099 741 38 896 568 30 139 94 5 146 103 5
Total 4027 3513 66 3115 2805 64 792 701 13 1425 1287 17
2004
True Vote 52.9% 46.2% 0.9% 52.1% 46.9% 1.1% 52.6% 46.5% 0.9% 52.2% 47.2% 0.6%
Record 3584 3965 62 2741 2860 27 742 752 13 1259 1456 16
Share 47.1% 52.1% 0.8% 48.9% 51.1% 0.5% 49.2% 49.9% 0.9% 46.1% 53.3% 0.6%
Swing -1.8% 3.3% -1.5% 2.5% 1.1% -3.1% 0.7% 1.7% -2.4% -1.0% 2.9% -1.9%
ExitPoll 51.0% 48.2% 0.8% 54.0% 45.5% 0.5% 50.7% 48.4% 0.9% 49.0% 50.3% 0.7%
EP- True -1.9% 2.0% -0.1% 1.9% -1.4% -0.6% -1.9% 1.9% 0.0% -3.2% 3.1% 0.1%
EP-Record 3.9% -3.9% 0.0% 5.1% -5.6% 0.0% 1.5% -1.5% 0.0% 2.9% -3.0% 0.1%
Pre-elect 50.0% 47.0% 0.9% 50.0% 47.0% 1.1% 50.0% 44.0% 0.9% 44.0% 48.0% 0.6%
Projected 51.6% 47.5% 0.9% 51.4% 47.5% 1.1% 53.8% 45.3% 0.9% 49.5% 49.8% 0.6%
EP-Proj -0.6% 0.7% -0.1% 2.6% -2.0% -0.6% -3.1% 3.1% 0.0% -0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
___________________________________________________________________________________
Pennsylvania Michigan New Mexico Wisconsin
2000 Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other
Record 2486 2281 146 2170 1953 109 287 286 25 1243 1237 118
Share 50.6% 46.4% 3.0% 51.3% 46.1% 2.6% 47.9% 47.9% 4.2% 47.8% 47.6% 4.5%
Cast 2542 2300 146 2253 1981 109 323 299 25 1268 1246 118
Alive 2415 2185 139 2062 1855 104 272 272 24 1181 1175 112
Turnout 2367 2141 136 2021 1818 101 267 267 23 1157 1152 110
Nader/ 88 18 30 66 13 22 15 3 5 71 14 24
DNV 2k 685 425 23 543 342 18 119 77 4 334 230 12
Total 3140 2584 52 2630 2173 40 401 347 9 1562 1396 36
2004
TrueVote 54.4% 44.7% 0.9% 54.3% 44.9% 0.8% 53.0% 45.8% 1.2% 52.2% 46.6% 1.2%
Record 2938 2794 38 2479 2314 46 371 377 8 1490 1478 29
Share 50.9% 48.4% 0.7% 51.2% 47.8% 1.0% 49.0% 49.8% 1.1% 49.7% 49.3% 1.0%
Swing 0.3% 2.0% -2.3% 0.0% 1.7% -1.6% 1.1% 2.0% -3.1% 1.9% 1.7% -3.6%
ExitPoll 55.1% 44.2% 0.7% 54.4% 44.6% 1.0% 53.0% 45.8% 1.2% 49.8% 49.3% 0.9%
EP- True0.7% -0.5% -0.2% 0.1% -0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2.4% 2.7% -0.3%
EP-Record 4.2% -4.2% 0.0% 3.2% -3.2% 0.0% 4.0% -4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1%
Pre-elect 50.0% 45.0% 0.9% 52.0% 45.0% 0.8% 49.0% 49.0% 1.2% 51.0% 44.0% 1.2%
Project 53.1% 46.0% 0.9% 53.6% 45.5% 0.8% 49.6% 49.2% 1.2% 53.9% 45.0% 1.2%
EP-Proj 2.0% -1.8% -0.2% 0.8% -0.9% 0.2% 3.4% -3.4% 0.0% -4.1% 4.3% -0.3%
___________________________________________________________________________________
Washingtom Colorado Connecticut Minnesota
2000 Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other
Record 1248 1109 132 738 864 119 816 561 82 1168 1110 161
Share 50.1% 44.6% 5.3% 46.1% 53.9% 7.4% 55.9% 38.5% 5.6% 47.9% 45.5% 6.6%
Cast 1277 1119 132 672 842 119 721 529 82 1121 1094 161
Alive 1213 1063 125 701 821 113 775 533 78 1110 1055 153
Turnout 1188 1041 123 687 804 111 760 522 76 1087 1033 150
Nader/ 80 16 27 72 14 24 50 10 17 97 19 33
DNV 2k 313 188 10 306 210 11 144 77 4 341 209 11
Total 1582 1245 37 1065 1028 35 953 609 21 1526 1262 44
2004
TrueVote 55.2% 43.5% 1.3% 50.0% 48.3% 1.6% 60.2% 38.5% 1.3% 53.9% 44.6% 1.6%
Record 1510 1305 44 1002 1101 27 857 694 27 1445 1347 37
Share 52.8% 45.6% 1.5% 47.6% 52.4% 1.3% 54.3% 44.0% 1.7% 51.1% 47.6% 1.3%
Swing 2.7% 1.1% -3.8% 1.6% -1.6% -6.1% -1.6% 5.5% -3.9% 3.2% 2.1% -5.3%
ExitPoll 56.8% 41.6% 1.5% 50.1% 48.6% 1.3% 62.3% 35.9% 1.8% 55.7% 43.0% 1.3%
EP- True 1.6% -1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% -0.3% 2.1% -2.6% 0.5% 1.8% -1.6% -0.3%
EP-Record 4.0% -4.0% 0.0% 2.5% -3.8% 0.0% 8.0% -8.1% 0.1% 4.6% -4.6% 0.0%
Pre-elect 52.0% 44.0% 1.3% 47.0% 48.0% 1.6% 52.0% 42.0% 1.3% 52.0% 44.0% 1.6%
Project 54.0% 44.7% 1.3% 49.5% 48.8% 1.6% 55.5% 43.2% 1.3% 53.8% 44.6% 1.6%
EP-Proj 2.8% -3.0% 0.2% 0.6% -0.2% -0.3% 6.8% -7.3% 0.5% 1.9% -1.6% -0.3%
___________________________________________________________________________________
Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Virginia
2000 Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other
Record 280 302 27 266 274 29 1250 1631 22 1217 1437 84
Share 46.0% 49.6% 4.4% 46.7% 48.2% 5.1% 43.1% 56.2% 0.8% 44.4% 52.5% 3.1%
Cast 304 310 27 268 275 29 1319 1654 22 1385 1493 84
Alive 289 295 26 253 260 28 1188 1549 21 1156 1365 80
Turnout 283 289 25 248 255 27 1164 1518 20 1133 1338 78
Nader/ 16 3 6 18 4 6 13 3 5 51 10 17
DNV 2k 139 90 5 92 55 3 459 319 16 375 259 13
Total 438 382 10 357 313 9 1636 1840 20 1558 1607 30
2004
TrueVote 52.8% 46.0% 1.2% 52.6% 46.1% 1.3% 46.8% 52.6% 0.6% 48.8% 50.3% 0.9%
Recorded 397 419 14 341 331 6 1526 1961 14 1455 1717 27
Share 47.8% 50.5% 1.7% 50.7% 49.3% 0.9% 43.6% 56.0% 0.4% 45.5% 53.7% 0.8%
Swing 1.9% 0.9% -2.7% 4.0% 1.1% -4.2% 0.5% -0.2% -0.4% 1.0% 1.2% -2.2%
ExitPoll 52.8% 45.5% 1.7% 57.2% 41.9% 0.9% 49.5% 50.1% 0.4% 49.8% 49.3% 0.9%
EP- True 0.0% -0.5% 0.5% 4.6% -4.2% -0.4% 2.7% -2.5% -0.2% 1.0% -1.0% 0.0%
EP-Record 5.0% -5.0% 0.0% 6.5% -7.4% 0.0% 5.9% -5.9% 0.0% 4.3% -4.4% 0.1%
Pre-elect 49.0% 49.0% 1.2% 47.0% 47.0% 1.3% 47.0% 50.0% 0.6% 47.0% 51.0% 0.9%
Project 49.6% 49.2% 1.2% 50.5% 48.2% 1.3% 48.8% 50.6% 0.6% 47.8% 51.3% 0.9%
EP-Proj 3.2% -3.7% 0.5% 6.7% -6.3% -0.4% 0.7% -0.5% -0.2% 2.0% -2.0% 0.0%
___________________________________________________________________________________
1988-2008 Oregon Recorded Vote Change and Correlation by County
(note: 2-party vote shares)
1996 2000 Chg 2004 Chg 2008 Chg
Total 54.69% 50.24% -4.46% 52.11% 1.87% 58.41% 6.31%
Correlation- 0.93 - 0.98 - 0.99 0.14
Std dev 9.3% 12.4% 5.0% 12.5% 2.2% 12.8% 1.5%
Baker 39.1% 28.1% -11.0% 29.5% 1.4% 33.2% 3.7%
Benton 58.0% 55.1% -2.9% 59.0% 3.8% 66.2% 7.2%
Clackamas 53.3% 49.6% -3.6% 49.3% -0.3% 55.3% 6.0%
Clatsop 59.2% 54.4% -4.8% 55.2% 0.7% 59.8% 4.6%
Columbia 59.9% 52.4% -7.5% 51.4% -1.0% 56.3% 4.8%
Coos 52.8% 42.6% -10.2% 44.0% 1.4% 48.4% 4.4%
Crook 44.5% 31.6% -12.9% 30.7% -0.9% 36.3% 5.6%
Curry 46.7% 38.4% -8.3% 41.6% 3.2% 44.0% 2.5%
Deschutes 44.8% 40.7% -4.1% 42.7% 2.0% 49.8% 7.1%
Douglas 41.1% 31.9% -9.2% 33.5% 1.6% 39.6% 6.2%
Gilliam 54.9% 34.6% -20.3% 32.9% -1.7% 39.9% 7.0%
Grant 35.9% 16.1% -19.8% 19.6% 3.5% 26.5% 7.0%
Harney 33.5% 21.5% -12.0% 23.0% 1.5% 26.8% 3.8%
Hood River56.7% 52.3% -4.4% 57.5% 5.3% 65.9% 8.3%
Jackson 46.4% 41.9% -4.5% 44.0% 2.1% 50.0% 6.0%
Jefferson 49.2% 41.1% -8.1% 40.5% -0.6% 45.5% 5.0%
Josephine 40.9% 34.8% -6.1% 36.7% 1.9% 43.1% 6.4%
Klamath 37.3% 28.6% -8.7% 26.7% -1.9% 32.9% 6.2%
Lake 30.1% 20.0% -10.1% 20.9% 0.9% 26.6% 5.7%
Lane 59.0% 56.1% -2.9% 59.0% 2.9% 64.1% 5.1%
Lincoln 61.1% 56.3% -4.8% 57.5% 1.3% 61.9% 4.3%
Linn 48.2% 39.7% -8.5% 38.9% -0.7% 44.1% 5.2%
Malheur 31.9% 23.5% -8.4% 24.1% 0.6% 29.2% 5.1%
Marion 51.2% 46.3% -4.9% 45.2% -1.0% 51.1% 5.9%
Morrow 50.8% 35.0% -15.8% 33.3% -1.7% 36.0% 2.7%
Multnomah 69.2% 69.2% 0.0% 72.5% 3.3% 78.8% 6.3%
Polk 48.8% 44.3% -4.5% 44.3% -0.1% 49.7% 5.5%
Sherman 48.3% 32.4% -15.8% 36.0% 3.5% 37.8% 1.8%
Tillamook 59.8% 49.9% -9.8% 49.1% -0.9% 55.1% 6.0%
Umatilla 47.5% 35.6% -11.9% 34.2% -1.3% 38.3% 4.1%
Union 44.7% 31.3% -13.4% 33.3% 1.9% 37.8% 4.6%
Wallowa 35.7% 20.3% -15.4% 28.8% 8.5% 34.5% 5.6%
Wasco 57.6% 46.3% -11.3% 48.2% 1.9% 53.6% 5.5%
Washington54.0% 51.3% -2.7% 53.0% 1.8% 61.3% 8.3%
Wheeler 41.7% 25.7% -16.0% 28.6% 2.9% 36.1% 7.5%
Yamhill 48.5% 42.6% -5.9% 42.4% -0.2% 49.3% 6.9%
2004 State Exit Poll Discrepancies and Voting Methods
Note:
Biggest states where popular votes were padded for Bush: CA, NY, TX, PA, MI, MN, NC, CT, NJ, WA, VA. MS
States where electoral votes were stolen for Bush: FL, OH, IA, NM, CO, NV, MO
Vote WPE Discrep DRE Optiscan Lever Punch Paper Unknown
122,294 7.38% 9,030 2,576 3,378 1,660 1,033 196 187
100.0% 28.5% 37.4% 18.4% 11.4% 2.2% 2.1%
Percentage Mix
AK 313 9.3% 29 0 90 0 0 10 0
AL 1,883 10.0% 188 15 85 0 0 0 0
AR 1,055 1.3% 14 5 65 9 17 4 0
AZ 2,013 0.3% 6 0 100 0 0 0 0
CA 12,420 11.6% 1,441 29 66 0 4 0 0
CO 2,130 6.1% 130 37 61 0 1 0 0
CT 1,579 16.0% 253 0 0 100 0 0 0
DC 228 2.8% 6 50 50 0 0 0 0
DE 375 15.9% 60 100 0 0 0 0 0
FL 7,610 7.8% 594 56 44 0 0 0 0
GA 3,302 1.3% 43 100 0 0 0 0 0
HI 429 8.2% 35 50 50 0 0 0 0
IA 1,507 3.0% 45 11 88 1 0 0 0
ID 598 4.0% 24 0 33 0 60 8 0
IL 5,274 3.5% 185 0 32 0 63 0 5
IN 2,468 2.2% 54 79 0 1 20 0 1
KS 1,188 1.1% 13 37 60 0 0 3 0
KY 1,796 0.4% 7 81 17 2 0 0 0
LA 1,943 2.6% 51 54 0 46 0 0 0
MA 2,912 7.7% 224 0 69 6 0 21 4
MD 2,387 7.3% 174 100 0 0 0 0 0
ME 741 4.0% 30 0 67 0 0 33 0
MI 4,839 6.4% 310 4 60 12 20 4 0
MN 2,828 9.2% 260 0 91 0 0 9 0
MO 2,731 5.8% 158 0 12 0 65 1 22
MS 1,152 18.5% 213 15 68 8 9 0 0
MT 450 -2.6% -12 0 81 0 13 6 0
NC 3,501 11.9% 417 43 43 2 9 0 4
ND 313 -1.7% -5 7 90 0 0 3 0
NE 778 8.7% 68 0 56 0 0 4 40
NH 678 11.9% 81 0 65 0 0 35 0
NJ 3,612 9.1% 329 73 1 25 0 0 0
NM 756 8.0% 61 90 10 0 0 0 0
NV 830 9.9% 82 100 0 0 0 0 0
NY 7,391 12.2% 902 1 0 99 0 0 0
OH 5,628 10.6% 597 16 12 0 72 0 0
OK 1,464 -1.2% -18 0 100 0 0 0 0
OR 1,837 1.8% 33 0 18 0 0 0 82
PA 5,770 8.4% 485 26 12 49 12 1 0
RI 437 5.3% 23 0 100 0 0 0 0
SC 1,618 9.7% 157 86 14 0 0 0 0
SD 388 -5.1% -20 0 1 0 0 6 93
TN 2,437 1.3% 32 75 10 5 11 0 0
TX 7,411 7.6% 563 45 45 3 5 2 0
UT 928 4.3% 40 0 0 0 9 0 91
VA 3,198 8.7% 278 33 22 27 16 0 1
VT 312 15.2% 47 0 51 0 0 49 0
WA 2,859 8.0% 229 14 63 0 23 0 0
WI 2,997 4.8% 144 0 54 0 0 18 28
WV 756 -5.9% -45 8 42 6 37 7 0
WY 243 7.0% 17 2 76 3 14 5 0
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Aug. 26, 2010
Go here for the data tables:
http://richardcharnin.com/OregonVotingSystem.htm
This statistical analysis of Oregon’s voting history provides evidence that the vote-by-mail system introduced in 1998 has been a success. In 2000, it closely matched the national recorded vote, as expected. In 2004, Kerry’s recorded vote share in Oregon was close to the pre-election poll and the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate (52-47%). But it was 3% higher than his recorded national and average battleground shares.
Bush improved on his 2000 recorded vote share not only in the battleground states, but also in solidly Democratic New York. But Oregon went against the grain and shifted from Gore to Kerry. Kerry won Oregon by 51.4-47.2%. His margin improved by 3.7% over Gore, primarily from his 65-13% edge in returning Nader voters and 59-39% margin in new voters. The pre-election National, Oregon and Battleground polls, adjusted for undecided voters, projected that Kerry would win by 51-48%. Post-election state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry won by 3-7%. The True Vote model indicates that he won by 53.3-45.7% (nearly 10 million votes) assuming a zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters.
Did Oregon’s mail-in system miscount the votes? To believe it did, you must also believe that Bush did in fact win an honest election and that the national and state exit polls that indicated Kerry won were wrong. But what if the exit polls were correct and votes were miscounted in the other non-paper ballot states that used electronic voting machines, punched cards or levers? Then one would then have to conclude that Oregon’s vote-by-mail system worked – and that the others did not.
1988-2008 Vote Shares
National State Exit Oregon Oregon
Dem 2-pty Recorded Share Aggregate Recorded Share Post-election survey
National Oregon Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other
2008 53.7 58.4 52.9 45.6 1.5 na na na 56.7 40.4 2.9 56.0 42.8 1.2
2004 48.8 52.1 48.3 50.7 1.0 52.0 47.0 1.0 51.3 47.2 1.5 52.2 46.3 1.5
2000 50.3 50.2 48.4 47.9 3.7 49.4 46.9 3.7 47.0 46.5 6.5 47.8 45.9 6.3
1996 54.7 54.7 49.2 40.7 10.1 50.2 39.8 10.0 47.2 39.1 13.7 48.4 37.9 13.7
1992 53.5 56.7 43.0 37.4 19.6 45.7 34.8 19.5 42.5 32.5 25.0 49.3 25.7 25.0
1988 46.0 52.4 45.6 53.4 1.0 46.7 52.3 1.0 51.3 46.6 2.1 55.0 42.9 2.1
The National, Oregon and Battleground pre-election projection and post-election exit poll shares closely match.
This confirms that Oregon is representative of the National and Battleground electorate.
Therefore, we must conclude that the election was stolen in the Battleground states and Oregon’s vote by mail system is virtually fraud-proof.
True Vote Methodology
The analysis tables provide a reasonable approximation of the National, Oregon and Battleground True Vote shares.
Given 2000 and 2004 votes recorded and cast, the True Vote calculation assumes:
1. Kerry and Gore had 75% of the uncounted (cast - recorded) votes
2. Annual 1.25% voter mortality (5% in the four years between elections)
3. Equal 98% turnout of returning 2000 voters in 2004.
4. Equal Gore and Bush returning voter defection rates (they cancel each other).
5. Kerry won returning Nader voters by 65-13% over Bush based on the National Exit Poll.
6. New 2004 voters is the difference between 2004 votes cast and returning 2000 voters.
7. Kerry won new voters by 59-39% nationally. His DNV share in each state is calculated as:
State DNV share = 0.59* (1+state exit poll share - 0.5197)*new voters, where .5197 is Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (national) share.
For instance, in NY, Kerry’s share of 1347k DNV is 894k = 0.59*(1+.645-0.5197).
A simplifying assumption is that there was zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters (they cancelled each other). However the 12:22am National Exit Poll of 13,047 respondents indicates that 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry and only 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. The 2004 True Vote analysis shown below indicates that he had a 53.7% national share assuming a net 2% defection as opposed to his 53.3% assuming zero net defection. See the Recursive True Vote Model.
Kerry True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
Two groups of three tables display the effect of various model input assumptions on Kerry’s vote share. The margin of error is less than 1.5%.
-New Voters and returning Nader/other voters
Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground True Vote shares over a 54-63% range of new voters and 61-69% of returning Nader/other voters.
Kerry wins all worst case scenarios (54% of new voters and 61% of returning Nader voters).
-Returning Gore and Bush Voter Turnout
Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground vote shares for 91-99% turnout of living former Gore and Bush voters.
Kerry wins all worst case turnout scenarios (91% of living Gore voters and 99% of living Bush voters).
Oregon vs. New York and California
National
In 2000, Gore won the recorded vote by 48.4-47.9%.
In 2004, although returning Nader voters broke heavily for Kerry by 65-13% and new voters by 59-39%, Bush won by 50.7-48.3%.That is not plausible.
Oregon
Gore won by 47.0-46.5%.
With returning Nader and new voters breaking for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin increased to 51.4-47.2%. That is plausible.
Kerry led by 52.2-46.3% in the exit pollster telephone poll. That is plausible.
New York
Gore won by 60.2-35.2%.
Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin declined to 58.4-40.1%. That is not plausible.
Kerry led by 64.5-34.0% in the exit poll. That is plausible.
California
Gore won by 53.4-41.6%.
Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin declined to 54.3-44.1%. That is not plausible.
Kerry led by 60.1-38.6% in the exit poll. That is plausible.
Why did Kerry’s margin increase in Oregon, a battleground state, and decline in strongly Democratic California and New York?
Why was the exit poll so far off in California (11.6 WPE)? It voted 29% on DRE touch screens, 66% on optical scanners and 4% on punch cards.
Why was the exit poll so far off in New York (12.2 WPE)? It voted exclusively on lever machines.
Why were the exit polls so far off (7.5 WPE) in the Battleground states? They voted on machines (see the chart below).
Florida and Ohio
In Florida 2000, there were approximately 185,000 spoiled punch cards (under-punched and over-punched).
According to the Census, 43,000 more votes were cast than recorded.
Where did the 142,000 extra votes come from?
Bush won Florida by 537 votes.
In Florida 2004, approximately 238,000 more votes were recorded than cast.
How many were uncounted?
Bush won by 380,000 votes.
In Ohio 2004, according to the Census, 143,000 more votes were recorded than cast.
Approximately 350,000 were uncounted (see Was the 2004 Election Stolen? by RFK, Jr.)
How many votes were switched?
Bush won by 119,000 votes.
Oregon’s Pre-Election Polls Uniquely Matched the Recorded and True Vote
Final-week state pre-election polls were virtually all Likely Voter (LV) subsets of the full Registered Voter (RV) samples. Likely Voter subsets largely exclude "new" voters: first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election. The Democrats won ‘new voters’ by an average 14% margin (before Obama’s whopping 44%). Projections that ignore RV polls and focus solely on LV polls will inevitably underestimate the Democratic share, especially in heavy-turnout elections such as record-setting 2004 and 2008. In 2004, the LV polls understated voter turnout by 6%. Gross underestimates would be expected from political sites by displaying only LV polls and failing to allocate undecided voters.
Mainstream pollsters allocated undecided voters to Kerry by 2:1-to-4:1. Kerry’s projected national LV poll share was 1-2% lower than the projected RV share. In New York and California the pre-election poll projections were a virtual match to the recorded vote-count share but 5-6% below Kerry’s exit poll and True Vote shares. The same LV/RV mismatch occurred in 2008. Obama had 53% based on LV polls but a 57% projected share based on RV national polls after allocating undecided voters.
In Oregon, voting by mail results in high turnout and the pre-election polls are RVs by definition. Kerry led by 50-44% in the final poll. After undecided voter allocation (UVA), he was projected to win by 53-45%. The Oregon projection matched the True Vote Model and was within 1.6% of his recorded share.
In the final weeks prior to the 2004 and 2008 elections, national LV polls were displayed on political websites; many did not allocate undecided voters. By virtue of its vote by mail system, Oregon’s RV pre-election polls undermine the media’s objective of forcing voters into believing bogus vote counts. The media primes voters before the election with LV-only projections. Then it covers up the fraud post-election with final "exit polls" that are always forced to match the counts. In 2008 National Election Pool (NEP) consortium did not release the preliminary national and unadjusted state exit polls. Why not?
1988 - 2008: Patterns of Discrepancies Before and After Voting-By-Mail
Note: vote shares are two-party to eliminate third-party (Perot/Nader) effects.
Before Mail-In Ballots
1988 - Bush was Vice President.
Dukakis had 52.4% in Oregon and a 46.0% National share – a very big 6.2% discrepancy.
He did 3.7% better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.
1992 - Bush was President.
Clinton had 56.7% in Oregon and a 53.5% National share - a 3.2% discrepancy.
He did a whopping 6.8% better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.
1996 - Clinton was President.
Clinton had 54.7% Oregon and a 54.7% National share - a perfect match.
He did 1.2% better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.
After Mail-In Ballots
2000 - Clinton was President.
Gore had 50.2% in Oregon and a 50.3% National share – a perfect match
2004 - Bush was President.
Kerry had 52.1% in Oregon and a 48.8% National share - a 3.3% discrepancy.
2008 - Bush was President.
Obama had 58.4% in Oregon and a 53.7% National share - a 4.7% discrepancy.
- Is it just a coincidence that when Clinton was the incumbent, there was an exact match between the Oregon and National vote shares?
- Is it just a coincidence that when Bush was the incumbent, there was a 4.4% average discrepancy between the Oregon and National vote shares?
- If the True Vote Model is correct and Oregon reflects the national electorate, then what does this say about our electoral system?
Oregon County Vote Change Correlation
With the change to mail-in ballots in 1998, there has been a noticeable decline in the volatility of changes in Oregon county vote shares from election to election. Before the switch to mail, there was a 0.93 correlation between 1996 and 2000 county vote share and a 5.0% standard deviation.
After the switch to mail, there was a near-perfect 0.98 correlation between 2000 and 2004 county vote shares and a 2.2% standard deviation in percentage vote change. There was an even better 0.99 correlation for 2004 and 2008 and a very low1.5% standard deviation in percentage vote change. The system is getting better and better.
The statistical analysis makes intuitive sense. Since the battleground states closely mirror the national electorate as a whole, Oregon’s recorded vote share should have been close to that of the other battleground states, but it was the only one that deviated sharply to Kerry. Oregon’s voting system is transparent. Optically scanned machine counts are verified by random hand-counts. Washington has also recently implemented a mail-in system.
Touch screen voting machine precincts avoid paper ballots; votes can be switched locally or at the invisible central tabulators. Optical scanners are a step in the right direction, but the system is ripe for fraud without mandating a random hand-count of selected precincts like they do in Oregon. Punch card machines can void the vote by double and triple-punching after the polls close. As in Florida 2000, election officials are quick to blame “stupid” voters if there are “problems” with the machines.
If they use lever machines, as in NY and PA, there are no paper ballots to verify the vote; too few machines can be placed in heavily Democratic precincts; or bad machines that will likely break down will cause voters to leave the polling booth; the levers can be “stuck”, like they were for Bush in 2004; votes can be switched by the central tabulators; lever gears can be shaved. There are many ways to skin the cat. In NY, Gore, Kerry and Obama each enjoyed a 7% higher late (paper ballot) vote share than they did on Election Day (lever votes). What does that tell us?
Here is an amazing statistic that very few are even aware of: Obama had 52% of the 121 million votes recorded on Election Day and a whopping 59% of the 10 million late (paper ballot) votes. What are the odds of the 7% discrepancy? What is the margin of error in a poll with 10 million respondents?
Since Kerry won new voters by 59-39% and returning Nader voters by 65-13%, to believe the recorded vote shares, you must also believe that returning Gore voters defected to Bush at a much higher rate than Bush voters to Kerry. But according to the National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush and 8% of Gore voters defected.
The above analysis indicates that Oregon’s mail-in system works just fine. But it would be greatly appreciated if interested readers found flaws in the assumptions, logic or the math and presented contrary statistical and/or anecdotal evidence. The analysis can then be forwarded to Oregon’s election officials who may then decide to scrap vote by mail and convert to HAVA-compliant DREs, Optical scanners, Punch cards or Levers. Advise them to recount only those elections in which the vote shares differ by less than .001%.
If you believe the recorded 2004 vote was accurate in the battleground states, then you must also believe that…
1- Bush won a fair election.
2- The electronic and mechanical voting machines accurately counted the votes.
3- There was little or no fraud.
4- Election reform efforts are meaningless.
5- There is nothing wrong with our national voting system.
6- Oregon’s voting system was rigged for Kerry since it was the only battleground state he won that shifted sharply to him from Gore.
7- Pre-election state and national polls that projected Kerry would win by 51-48% after undecided voters were allocated were wrong.
8- Unadjusted and preliminary state and national exit polls that had Kerry winning by 5-7% were wrong.
9- The Oregon telephone survey that showed Kerry winning a 52.3% share was wrong.
10- Either returning Nader voters defected to Bush and/or he won a majority of new voters and/or more returning Gore voters than Bush voters defected.
11 -The National Exit Poll which had Kerry winning returning Nader voters by 65-13% and new voters by 59-39% were wrong.
12- The Oregon vote must have been padded for Kerry (51.4%) and Obama (56.7%).
13- Election officials in Florida, Ohio, NY and other states did a great job in making sure that the voting machines were not tampered with.
14- A problem with vote by mail is the elimination of exit polls. Oregon needs exit polls even though they are usually wrong.
15- The True Vote Model is flawed since it closely matched the unadjusted National, Oregon and Battleground exit polls.
16- There is nothing wrong with the standard policy of forcing final state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote.
17- Final 1992, 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were correct: there were millions more returning Bush voters from the prior election than were alive.
If you believe that vote-by-mail systems are vulnerable to election official fraud or voter fraud, then lobby state officials to stop the vote-by-mail trend. Otherwise, fraud-free HAVA-compliant voting systems now working just fine in all the other states will become clones of Oregon and Washington.
Those opposed to mail-in voting cite advantages in voting at the precinct: voters can get to see friends and make new ones, take time off from work, project a patriotic image by voting in full view, look smart by touching the computer screen, exercise their legs while waiting to vote and get some cheap coffee.
Analysis Summary
Recorded National Oregon Battleground
Gore 48.38% 46.96% 48.05%
Kerry 48.27% 51.35% 50.62%
Swing -0.11% 4.39% 2.57%
Kerry National Oregon Battleground
Pre-elect 51.05% 53.33% 51.82%
Exit Poll 51.97% 52.20% 52.86%
True Vote 53.26% 52.96% 52.62%
Deviations
Exit-Rec 3.70% 0.85% 2.24%
True-Rec 4.99% 1.61% 1.99%
True-Proj 2.21% -0.37% 0.80%
True-Exit 1.29% 0.76% -0.24%
Kerry True Vote Share Sensitivity
Share of National Bush National
Nader Share of DNV Turnout Gore Voter Turnout
53.26% 54% 57% 59% 61% 63% 53.26% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99%
69% 52.48% 53.02% 53.38% 53.73% 54.09% 95% 53.44% 53.61% 53.78% 53.95% 54.12%
67% 52.42% 52.96% 53.32% 53.68% 54.03% 96% 53.21% 53.38% 53.55% 53.72% 53.89%
65% 52.36% 52.90% 53.26% 53.62% 53.98% 97% 52.98% 53.15% 53.32% 53.49% 53.66%
63% 52.30% 52.84% 53.20% 53.56% 53.92% 98% 52.75% 52.92% 53.09% 53.26% 53.43%
61% 52.24% 52.78% 53.14% 53.50% 53.86% 99% 52.52% 52.69% 52.86% 53.03% 53.20%
Oregon Oregon
52.96% 54% 57% 59% 61% 63% 52.96% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99%
69% 52.05% 52.72% 53.16% 53.60% 54.05% 95% 53.15% 53.31% 53.46% 53.61% 53.76%
67% 51.95% 52.61% 53.06% 53.50% 53.95% 96% 52.94% 53.09% 53.24% 53.39% 53.55%
65% 51.85% 52.51% 52.96% 53.40% 53.84% 97% 52.72% 52.87% 53.02% 53.17% 53.33%
63% 51.74% 52.41% 52.86% 53.30% 53.74% 98% 52.50% 52.65% 52.80% 52.96% 53.11%
61% 51.64% 52.31% 52.75% 53.20% 53.64% 99% 52.28% 52.43% 52.59% 52.74% 52.89%
Battleground Battleground
52.62% 54% 57% 59% 61% 63% 52.62% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99%
69% 51.69% 52.31% 52.73% 53.14% 53.55% 95% 52.83% 52.99% 53.15% 53.31% 53.47%
67% 51.64% 52.26% 52.67% 53.09% 53.50% 96% 52.60% 52.76% 52.92% 53.08% 53.24%
65% 51.58% 52.20% 52.62% 53.03% 53.44% 97% 52.37% 52.53% 52.69% 52.85% 53.01%
63% 51.53% 52.15% 52.56% 52.98% 53.39% 98% 52.14% 52.30% 52.46% 52.62% 52.78%
61% 51.47% 52.09% 52.51% 52.92% 53.33% 99% 51.91% 52.07% 52.23% 52.39% 52.55%
2004 Battleground state vote shares before and after allocating new and returning Nader 2000 voters
___________________________________________________________________________________
National Oregon New York California
2000 Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other
Record 51004 50456 3950 720 714 100 4108 2403 311 5861 4567 538
Share 48.4% 47.9% 3.7% 47.0% 46.5% 6.5% 60.2% 35.2% 4.6% 53.4% 41.6% 4.9%
Cast 55066 51810 3950 724 715 100 4244 2449 311 6253 4698 538
Alive 52313 49220 3753 684 678 95 3903 2283 295 5568 4339 511
Turnout 51266 48235 3677 671 664 93 3824 2238 290 5457 4252 501
Nader/oth 2390 478 809 61 12 20 188 38 64 326 65 110
DNV 2k 13309 8797 451 241 159 8 894 459 27 1410 792 44
Total 66965 57510 1260 972 835 29 4907 2735 91 7192 5109 154
2004
TrueVote 53.3% 45.7% 1.0% 53.0% 45.5% 1.6% 63.5% 35.4% 1.2% 57.7% 41.0% 1.2%
Record 59028 62041 1224 943 867 27 4314 2963 114 6745 5510 165
Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% 51.35% 47.19% 1.5% 58.4% 40.1% 1.5% 54.3% 44.4% 1.3%
Swing -0.1% 2.9% -2.7% 4.4% 0.7% -5.1% -1.8% 4.9% -3.0% 0.9% 2.7% -3.6%
ExitPoll 52.0% 47.0% 1.0% 52.2% 46.3% 1.5% 64.5% 34.0% 1.5% 60.1% 38.6% 1.3%
EP- True -1.3% 1.3% 0.0% -0.8% 0.8% -0.1% 1.0% -1.4% 0.3% 2.4% -2.4% 0.1%
EP-Record 3.7% -3.7% 0.0% 0.9% -0.9% 0.0% 6.1% -6.1% 0.0% 5.8% -5.8% 0.0%
Pre-elect 47.9% 46.9% 1.0% 50.0% 44.0% 1.6% 57.0% 39.0% 1.2% 49.0% 42.0% 1.2%
Projected 51.0% 47.9% 1.0% 53.3% 45.1% 1.6% 59.1% 39.7% 1.2% 54.8% 43.9% 1.2%
EP-Proj 0.9% -0.9% 0.0% -1.1% 1.2% -0.1% 5.4% -5.7% 0.3% 5.3% -5.3% 0.1%
___________________________________________________________________________________
Florida Ohio Iowa Missouri
2000 Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other
Record 2913 2913 138 2186 2351 168 639 634 42 1111 1190 59
Share 48.8% 48.8% 2.3% 46.5% 50.0% 3.6% 48.5% 48.2% 3.2% 47.1% 50.4% 2.5%
Cast 3056 2961 138 2274 2381 168 674 646 42 1335 1265 59
Alive 2903 2812 131 2161 2262 159 641 614 40 1269 1201 56
Turnout 2845 2756 128 2118 2216 156 628 602 39 1243 1177 55
Nader/oth 84 17 28 102 20 34 26 5 9 36 7 12
DNV 2k 1099 741 38 896 568 30 139 94 5 146 103 5
Total 4027 3513 66 3115 2805 64 792 701 13 1425 1287 17
2004
True Vote 52.9% 46.2% 0.9% 52.1% 46.9% 1.1% 52.6% 46.5% 0.9% 52.2% 47.2% 0.6%
Record 3584 3965 62 2741 2860 27 742 752 13 1259 1456 16
Share 47.1% 52.1% 0.8% 48.9% 51.1% 0.5% 49.2% 49.9% 0.9% 46.1% 53.3% 0.6%
Swing -1.8% 3.3% -1.5% 2.5% 1.1% -3.1% 0.7% 1.7% -2.4% -1.0% 2.9% -1.9%
ExitPoll 51.0% 48.2% 0.8% 54.0% 45.5% 0.5% 50.7% 48.4% 0.9% 49.0% 50.3% 0.7%
EP- True -1.9% 2.0% -0.1% 1.9% -1.4% -0.6% -1.9% 1.9% 0.0% -3.2% 3.1% 0.1%
EP-Record 3.9% -3.9% 0.0% 5.1% -5.6% 0.0% 1.5% -1.5% 0.0% 2.9% -3.0% 0.1%
Pre-elect 50.0% 47.0% 0.9% 50.0% 47.0% 1.1% 50.0% 44.0% 0.9% 44.0% 48.0% 0.6%
Projected 51.6% 47.5% 0.9% 51.4% 47.5% 1.1% 53.8% 45.3% 0.9% 49.5% 49.8% 0.6%
EP-Proj -0.6% 0.7% -0.1% 2.6% -2.0% -0.6% -3.1% 3.1% 0.0% -0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
___________________________________________________________________________________
Pennsylvania Michigan New Mexico Wisconsin
2000 Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other
Record 2486 2281 146 2170 1953 109 287 286 25 1243 1237 118
Share 50.6% 46.4% 3.0% 51.3% 46.1% 2.6% 47.9% 47.9% 4.2% 47.8% 47.6% 4.5%
Cast 2542 2300 146 2253 1981 109 323 299 25 1268 1246 118
Alive 2415 2185 139 2062 1855 104 272 272 24 1181 1175 112
Turnout 2367 2141 136 2021 1818 101 267 267 23 1157 1152 110
Nader/ 88 18 30 66 13 22 15 3 5 71 14 24
DNV 2k 685 425 23 543 342 18 119 77 4 334 230 12
Total 3140 2584 52 2630 2173 40 401 347 9 1562 1396 36
2004
TrueVote 54.4% 44.7% 0.9% 54.3% 44.9% 0.8% 53.0% 45.8% 1.2% 52.2% 46.6% 1.2%
Record 2938 2794 38 2479 2314 46 371 377 8 1490 1478 29
Share 50.9% 48.4% 0.7% 51.2% 47.8% 1.0% 49.0% 49.8% 1.1% 49.7% 49.3% 1.0%
Swing 0.3% 2.0% -2.3% 0.0% 1.7% -1.6% 1.1% 2.0% -3.1% 1.9% 1.7% -3.6%
ExitPoll 55.1% 44.2% 0.7% 54.4% 44.6% 1.0% 53.0% 45.8% 1.2% 49.8% 49.3% 0.9%
EP- True0.7% -0.5% -0.2% 0.1% -0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2.4% 2.7% -0.3%
EP-Record 4.2% -4.2% 0.0% 3.2% -3.2% 0.0% 4.0% -4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1%
Pre-elect 50.0% 45.0% 0.9% 52.0% 45.0% 0.8% 49.0% 49.0% 1.2% 51.0% 44.0% 1.2%
Project 53.1% 46.0% 0.9% 53.6% 45.5% 0.8% 49.6% 49.2% 1.2% 53.9% 45.0% 1.2%
EP-Proj 2.0% -1.8% -0.2% 0.8% -0.9% 0.2% 3.4% -3.4% 0.0% -4.1% 4.3% -0.3%
___________________________________________________________________________________
Washingtom Colorado Connecticut Minnesota
2000 Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other
Record 1248 1109 132 738 864 119 816 561 82 1168 1110 161
Share 50.1% 44.6% 5.3% 46.1% 53.9% 7.4% 55.9% 38.5% 5.6% 47.9% 45.5% 6.6%
Cast 1277 1119 132 672 842 119 721 529 82 1121 1094 161
Alive 1213 1063 125 701 821 113 775 533 78 1110 1055 153
Turnout 1188 1041 123 687 804 111 760 522 76 1087 1033 150
Nader/ 80 16 27 72 14 24 50 10 17 97 19 33
DNV 2k 313 188 10 306 210 11 144 77 4 341 209 11
Total 1582 1245 37 1065 1028 35 953 609 21 1526 1262 44
2004
TrueVote 55.2% 43.5% 1.3% 50.0% 48.3% 1.6% 60.2% 38.5% 1.3% 53.9% 44.6% 1.6%
Record 1510 1305 44 1002 1101 27 857 694 27 1445 1347 37
Share 52.8% 45.6% 1.5% 47.6% 52.4% 1.3% 54.3% 44.0% 1.7% 51.1% 47.6% 1.3%
Swing 2.7% 1.1% -3.8% 1.6% -1.6% -6.1% -1.6% 5.5% -3.9% 3.2% 2.1% -5.3%
ExitPoll 56.8% 41.6% 1.5% 50.1% 48.6% 1.3% 62.3% 35.9% 1.8% 55.7% 43.0% 1.3%
EP- True 1.6% -1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% -0.3% 2.1% -2.6% 0.5% 1.8% -1.6% -0.3%
EP-Record 4.0% -4.0% 0.0% 2.5% -3.8% 0.0% 8.0% -8.1% 0.1% 4.6% -4.6% 0.0%
Pre-elect 52.0% 44.0% 1.3% 47.0% 48.0% 1.6% 52.0% 42.0% 1.3% 52.0% 44.0% 1.6%
Project 54.0% 44.7% 1.3% 49.5% 48.8% 1.6% 55.5% 43.2% 1.3% 53.8% 44.6% 1.6%
EP-Proj 2.8% -3.0% 0.2% 0.6% -0.2% -0.3% 6.8% -7.3% 0.5% 1.9% -1.6% -0.3%
___________________________________________________________________________________
Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Virginia
2000 Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other Dem Bush Other
Record 280 302 27 266 274 29 1250 1631 22 1217 1437 84
Share 46.0% 49.6% 4.4% 46.7% 48.2% 5.1% 43.1% 56.2% 0.8% 44.4% 52.5% 3.1%
Cast 304 310 27 268 275 29 1319 1654 22 1385 1493 84
Alive 289 295 26 253 260 28 1188 1549 21 1156 1365 80
Turnout 283 289 25 248 255 27 1164 1518 20 1133 1338 78
Nader/ 16 3 6 18 4 6 13 3 5 51 10 17
DNV 2k 139 90 5 92 55 3 459 319 16 375 259 13
Total 438 382 10 357 313 9 1636 1840 20 1558 1607 30
2004
TrueVote 52.8% 46.0% 1.2% 52.6% 46.1% 1.3% 46.8% 52.6% 0.6% 48.8% 50.3% 0.9%
Recorded 397 419 14 341 331 6 1526 1961 14 1455 1717 27
Share 47.8% 50.5% 1.7% 50.7% 49.3% 0.9% 43.6% 56.0% 0.4% 45.5% 53.7% 0.8%
Swing 1.9% 0.9% -2.7% 4.0% 1.1% -4.2% 0.5% -0.2% -0.4% 1.0% 1.2% -2.2%
ExitPoll 52.8% 45.5% 1.7% 57.2% 41.9% 0.9% 49.5% 50.1% 0.4% 49.8% 49.3% 0.9%
EP- True 0.0% -0.5% 0.5% 4.6% -4.2% -0.4% 2.7% -2.5% -0.2% 1.0% -1.0% 0.0%
EP-Record 5.0% -5.0% 0.0% 6.5% -7.4% 0.0% 5.9% -5.9% 0.0% 4.3% -4.4% 0.1%
Pre-elect 49.0% 49.0% 1.2% 47.0% 47.0% 1.3% 47.0% 50.0% 0.6% 47.0% 51.0% 0.9%
Project 49.6% 49.2% 1.2% 50.5% 48.2% 1.3% 48.8% 50.6% 0.6% 47.8% 51.3% 0.9%
EP-Proj 3.2% -3.7% 0.5% 6.7% -6.3% -0.4% 0.7% -0.5% -0.2% 2.0% -2.0% 0.0%
___________________________________________________________________________________
1988-2008 Oregon Recorded Vote Change and Correlation by County
(note: 2-party vote shares)
1996 2000 Chg 2004 Chg 2008 Chg
Total 54.69% 50.24% -4.46% 52.11% 1.87% 58.41% 6.31%
Correlation- 0.93 - 0.98 - 0.99 0.14
Std dev 9.3% 12.4% 5.0% 12.5% 2.2% 12.8% 1.5%
Baker 39.1% 28.1% -11.0% 29.5% 1.4% 33.2% 3.7%
Benton 58.0% 55.1% -2.9% 59.0% 3.8% 66.2% 7.2%
Clackamas 53.3% 49.6% -3.6% 49.3% -0.3% 55.3% 6.0%
Clatsop 59.2% 54.4% -4.8% 55.2% 0.7% 59.8% 4.6%
Columbia 59.9% 52.4% -7.5% 51.4% -1.0% 56.3% 4.8%
Coos 52.8% 42.6% -10.2% 44.0% 1.4% 48.4% 4.4%
Crook 44.5% 31.6% -12.9% 30.7% -0.9% 36.3% 5.6%
Curry 46.7% 38.4% -8.3% 41.6% 3.2% 44.0% 2.5%
Deschutes 44.8% 40.7% -4.1% 42.7% 2.0% 49.8% 7.1%
Douglas 41.1% 31.9% -9.2% 33.5% 1.6% 39.6% 6.2%
Gilliam 54.9% 34.6% -20.3% 32.9% -1.7% 39.9% 7.0%
Grant 35.9% 16.1% -19.8% 19.6% 3.5% 26.5% 7.0%
Harney 33.5% 21.5% -12.0% 23.0% 1.5% 26.8% 3.8%
Hood River56.7% 52.3% -4.4% 57.5% 5.3% 65.9% 8.3%
Jackson 46.4% 41.9% -4.5% 44.0% 2.1% 50.0% 6.0%
Jefferson 49.2% 41.1% -8.1% 40.5% -0.6% 45.5% 5.0%
Josephine 40.9% 34.8% -6.1% 36.7% 1.9% 43.1% 6.4%
Klamath 37.3% 28.6% -8.7% 26.7% -1.9% 32.9% 6.2%
Lake 30.1% 20.0% -10.1% 20.9% 0.9% 26.6% 5.7%
Lane 59.0% 56.1% -2.9% 59.0% 2.9% 64.1% 5.1%
Lincoln 61.1% 56.3% -4.8% 57.5% 1.3% 61.9% 4.3%
Linn 48.2% 39.7% -8.5% 38.9% -0.7% 44.1% 5.2%
Malheur 31.9% 23.5% -8.4% 24.1% 0.6% 29.2% 5.1%
Marion 51.2% 46.3% -4.9% 45.2% -1.0% 51.1% 5.9%
Morrow 50.8% 35.0% -15.8% 33.3% -1.7% 36.0% 2.7%
Multnomah 69.2% 69.2% 0.0% 72.5% 3.3% 78.8% 6.3%
Polk 48.8% 44.3% -4.5% 44.3% -0.1% 49.7% 5.5%
Sherman 48.3% 32.4% -15.8% 36.0% 3.5% 37.8% 1.8%
Tillamook 59.8% 49.9% -9.8% 49.1% -0.9% 55.1% 6.0%
Umatilla 47.5% 35.6% -11.9% 34.2% -1.3% 38.3% 4.1%
Union 44.7% 31.3% -13.4% 33.3% 1.9% 37.8% 4.6%
Wallowa 35.7% 20.3% -15.4% 28.8% 8.5% 34.5% 5.6%
Wasco 57.6% 46.3% -11.3% 48.2% 1.9% 53.6% 5.5%
Washington54.0% 51.3% -2.7% 53.0% 1.8% 61.3% 8.3%
Wheeler 41.7% 25.7% -16.0% 28.6% 2.9% 36.1% 7.5%
Yamhill 48.5% 42.6% -5.9% 42.4% -0.2% 49.3% 6.9%
2004 State Exit Poll Discrepancies and Voting Methods
Note:
Biggest states where popular votes were padded for Bush: CA, NY, TX, PA, MI, MN, NC, CT, NJ, WA, VA. MS
States where electoral votes were stolen for Bush: FL, OH, IA, NM, CO, NV, MO
Vote WPE Discrep DRE Optiscan Lever Punch Paper Unknown
122,294 7.38% 9,030 2,576 3,378 1,660 1,033 196 187
100.0% 28.5% 37.4% 18.4% 11.4% 2.2% 2.1%
Percentage Mix
AK 313 9.3% 29 0 90 0 0 10 0
AL 1,883 10.0% 188 15 85 0 0 0 0
AR 1,055 1.3% 14 5 65 9 17 4 0
AZ 2,013 0.3% 6 0 100 0 0 0 0
CA 12,420 11.6% 1,441 29 66 0 4 0 0
CO 2,130 6.1% 130 37 61 0 1 0 0
CT 1,579 16.0% 253 0 0 100 0 0 0
DC 228 2.8% 6 50 50 0 0 0 0
DE 375 15.9% 60 100 0 0 0 0 0
FL 7,610 7.8% 594 56 44 0 0 0 0
GA 3,302 1.3% 43 100 0 0 0 0 0
HI 429 8.2% 35 50 50 0 0 0 0
IA 1,507 3.0% 45 11 88 1 0 0 0
ID 598 4.0% 24 0 33 0 60 8 0
IL 5,274 3.5% 185 0 32 0 63 0 5
IN 2,468 2.2% 54 79 0 1 20 0 1
KS 1,188 1.1% 13 37 60 0 0 3 0
KY 1,796 0.4% 7 81 17 2 0 0 0
LA 1,943 2.6% 51 54 0 46 0 0 0
MA 2,912 7.7% 224 0 69 6 0 21 4
MD 2,387 7.3% 174 100 0 0 0 0 0
ME 741 4.0% 30 0 67 0 0 33 0
MI 4,839 6.4% 310 4 60 12 20 4 0
MN 2,828 9.2% 260 0 91 0 0 9 0
MO 2,731 5.8% 158 0 12 0 65 1 22
MS 1,152 18.5% 213 15 68 8 9 0 0
MT 450 -2.6% -12 0 81 0 13 6 0
NC 3,501 11.9% 417 43 43 2 9 0 4
ND 313 -1.7% -5 7 90 0 0 3 0
NE 778 8.7% 68 0 56 0 0 4 40
NH 678 11.9% 81 0 65 0 0 35 0
NJ 3,612 9.1% 329 73 1 25 0 0 0
NM 756 8.0% 61 90 10 0 0 0 0
NV 830 9.9% 82 100 0 0 0 0 0
NY 7,391 12.2% 902 1 0 99 0 0 0
OH 5,628 10.6% 597 16 12 0 72 0 0
OK 1,464 -1.2% -18 0 100 0 0 0 0
OR 1,837 1.8% 33 0 18 0 0 0 82
PA 5,770 8.4% 485 26 12 49 12 1 0
RI 437 5.3% 23 0 100 0 0 0 0
SC 1,618 9.7% 157 86 14 0 0 0 0
SD 388 -5.1% -20 0 1 0 0 6 93
TN 2,437 1.3% 32 75 10 5 11 0 0
TX 7,411 7.6% 563 45 45 3 5 2 0
UT 928 4.3% 40 0 0 0 9 0 91
VA 3,198 8.7% 278 33 22 27 16 0 1
VT 312 15.2% 47 0 51 0 0 49 0
WA 2,859 8.0% 229 14 63 0 23 0 0
WI 2,997 4.8% 144 0 54 0 0 18 28
WV 756 -5.9% -45 8 42 6 37 7 0
WY 243 7.0% 17 2 76 3 14 5 0