TruthIsAll
11-20-2008, 10:45 AM
In May 2008, Joseph Cannon ("Cannonfire") responded to a post in which I predicted an Obama landslide. The 2008 Election Calculator projected that he would will win the True Vote by 71-59m (54.1-44.7%), but that his recorded vote margin would be lower than 12 million due to fraud.
This was the original Cannon post:
Cokie Roberts...I can't believe I'm agreeing with Cokie Roberts...
http://cannonfire.blogspot.com/2008/05/cokie-robertsi-cant-believe-im-agreeing.html
I replied with the Election Calculator projection (see below).
Cannon responded to the projection with this:
TIA, you're making me regret ever saying nice things about you in these pages.
Your words are just...dumb. Obama win Florida? After being the single obstacle to a revote? Even though every single poll shows him losing handily to McCain? Even though he does not do well with seniors, Hispanics, and Jews?
Are you freaking NUTS?
Your problem is that you spend too much time over on DU. Those guys have gone out of their freaking gourds, man.
There will be no Democratic unity. Sorry to burst your bubble, dude. But if you want to know why, just read DU. Read Kos.
You're rationalizing. You lack the courage to face reality. But when reality finally slaps you in the face, don't blame vote fraud. Instead, remember what you heard here:
Obama ran a smear campaign in a primary. That is always a BAAAAD idea.
Obama's forces falsely accused the Clintons of racism. That move brought the black vote around, but it also got a lot of people like me PISSED OFF. And I mean pissed off forever. As Iraq was to Bush, so the race-card was to Obi. It was a party-rending, and perhaps party-ENDING, miscalculation.
# posted by Joseph : 3:40 PM
-----------------------------------------------------
TIA replied:
Joseph, with all due respect, your concerns are unfounded. There is no way in hell that McCain will even beat a ham sandwich.
The Democrats WILL unite. Look at the last 3 Republican congressional seats which flipped to the Dems.
Please read the detailed analysis of 2000,2004 and 2006 in the TruthisAll link.
There is no way that the GOP can pull off the massive ELECTION FRAUD (not voter fraud) to win this time around. But they will surely try.
And regarding those swing states, it is my view that Obama is a sure thing in PA, MI and OH, with a good shot in MO and VA.
If he gets 52% of the vote he will win 330 EV. With the projected 54%, it's over 400.
The Democrats won the TRUE VOTE in EVERY election since 1988. Do you realize that Dukakis led Bush in the exit polls? The Repukes can only win when they cheat- but we are finally on to their game.
The head to head polls mean nothing now. They will IMMEDIATELY move solidly to Obama in June after he clinches the nomination. Be prepared for an Obama LANDSLIDE. But also expect that his margin will be reduced from 12 to 3-5 million.
The GOP lives off uncounted and switched votes.
-----------------------------------------------------
Cannon replied:
Ah hell. TIA, I just figured it out.
You've never shown up here before -- at least, not for a long, long time. Suddenly, here you are, trying to reassure everyone that Obama is a sure thing, as sure as any other Democrat.
At the same time, I stopped receiving my usual hate mail from the two or three cranks who were hitting me on an hourly basis.
I really think Obi IS paying for this crap!
# posted by Joseph : 4:23 PM
TIA, this time around, I just don't know the basis of your statements. But based on polling and election dynamics, I can't see Obama winning Florida, Ohio, PA, MO, MI and VA. That's in a FAIR fight. Vote fraud can only make the sitch worse.
He just can't win.
Frankly, I would not bet on Hillary either, although her chances are somewhat better.
Yes, yes, I realise all of the problems with reliance on polling; there is no need to spout cliches at me. Polls must be used cautiously. Still, they represent the data that we have. I see NO reason for optimism in the purple states.
Actually, I think Obama may be such a down-ticket drag that he will flip the Senate.
The presumption of fraud in 2008 is just that: A presumption. The infrastructure for fraud may not be there this time around. The situation has changed in Florida, I think, and Kenny is not in his old position in Ohio.
# posted by Joseph : 11:17 AM
=========================================================================
Nov. 20, 2008
Joseph,
Well, here we are six months later. I always thought we were on the same team but your vitriol last May exactly mirrored that of the Hillbots on DU. And now Obama has won in a landslide which dwarfs his 8.5 million recorded vote margin.
You can read all about Election Fraud in the links below. The full extent of the landslide was denied to Obama just like it was to the Democrats in the 2006 midterms. Not to mention outright thefts in 2004, 2002, 2000. And let's not forget the 2008 primaries.
Quite a streak, eh?
You said I must have been freaking nuts.
No, just freaking rational.
You said I spend too much time at DU.
No, I was banned in 2005.
You said Obama would be a drag on the ticket; that he would "flip" the senate.
No, the Dems have 58-60 senate seats depending on the MN recount and the GA runoff.
You said my words were "dumb".
No, they were based on solid analysis (see the links).
You said I lacked "courage" to face reality.
No, you lacked the courage to question the footprints of fraud in the primaries.
You said I was rationalizing and that when reality finally slaps me in the face, I should not blame vote fraud.
No, I blame election fraud, not vote fraud, for minimizing the extent of Obama's landslide.
You should know the difference between fictitious voter fraud and real election fraud. Voter fraud is a myth. It never happens. It's a Rovian canard spread by the lapdog, lazy media.
You said Obama ran a smear campaign.
No, the smear campaign was directed at Obama, not by him.
He never claimed to have been under sniper fire in Bosnia.
He disavowed Rev. Wrights comments.
He withstood the attacks of racist bigots during the primaries and the campaign.
Obama is far from perfect. But his organization was near-perfect.His advisers were quite professional. Hillary's advisers were a disaster - but she hired them and should have known better.
You said Obama's forces falsely accused the Clintons of racism.
No, it was the Clinton's who falsely accused him of sexism.
You said that every single poll showed Obama losing handily to McCain.
No, that statement was completely false.
Check the head-to-head polls from Jan. 2008:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
The Election Model had Obama winning 365.3 EXPECTED electoral votes; he won 365. But guess what? I was wrong. Obama's True Vote (before the fraud) was better than the 67-58.5m recorded margin. So he probably had more than 365 EV.
Now, back to Hillary. There is much evidence which strongly suggests that the New Hampshire primary was rigged for HRC. And you must be familiar with Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos which encouraged thousands of Repubs to cross over and vote for Hillary in Ohio, Texas, Indiana and elsewhere. Recall that Texas and Indiana were very close; Obama would have won both were it not for Operation Chaos (he did win the Texas caucuses).
Contrary to media myth, Hillary did NOT win 18m votes; the Repubs stole a million or more from Obama. They wanted to run against Hillary - they knew they couldn't beat Obama or Edwards. That's why they had to steal NH for Hillary. Obama led ALL 10-15 pre-election polls the night before by an average of 8%. He also led the early exit polls by 8%, according to Chris Matthews.
But, FWIW, I agree that Hillary would have also beaten McCain.
Anyway, it's all here. I don't expect you to read all of it, but try to get the gist. And thanks for all the positive things you've said about my work - before 2008.
Peace out.
TIA
The Footprints of 2008 Primary Fraud:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimariesLinks.htm
The 2008 Election Calculator (from May 2008):
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator.htm
The 2008 Election Model - popular and electoral vote trend from May:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm
2008 Election anomalies: Uncounted votes, late votes and another bogus Final National Exit Poll (NEP):
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008StatAnomalies.htm
The Final 2008 NEP buried the pathetic naysayer Gore voter "false recall" canard used to "explain" the bogus Final 2004 NEP; more evidence the election was stolen.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008NEPScenarios.htm
The 2008 Election Model predicted the Recorded vote - not the True Vote
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008ElectionModel365EV.htm
2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm
Introduction to Probability and Statistics 101:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/IntroStatisticsProbability.htm
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is the May 2008 post on Cannonfire.
A Preliminary 2008 Recorded and True Vote Projection
TruthIsAll
The 2008 Election Calculator projects that Obama will win the True Vote in a landslide: 71-59m (54.1-44.7%). The model calculates the true vote based on vote shares applied to returning 2004 voters and the allocation of uncounted votes. But election fraud will reduce Obama’s recorded vote margin to 64-61m. The landslide will be denied due to election fraud, just like it was in the 2006 midterms in which the Democrats won 10-20 more seats than official results indicate. Obama is expected to do better than Kerry did in 2004 among blacks, Hispanics, new voters, moderate Republicans and Independents. He may not do as well among other, white Democrats. This analysis is based on an estimate of total votes cast; it does not include the millions of (mostly Democratic) disenfranchised voters.
In 2000 Al Gore won the recorded vote by 51.0-50.5m (48.4-47.9%). The Election Calculator determined that he won the True Vote by 55.3-51.4m (49.9-46.6%) which closely matched his 49.4% unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share. The U.S. Census reported that 110.8m total votes were cast in 2000 but only 105.4m were recorded. If not for 5.4m uncounted votes, Gore’s margin would have exceeded 3 million. In Florida, 185,000 spoiled ballots (not including absentee and provisional ballots) cost Gore 120,000 votes. He won the state by a minimum of 60,000 votes, but Bush won the recorded vote (and the Presidency) by 537.
In 2004 Bush won the recorded vote by 62-59m (50.7-48.3%). Once again, the Election Calculator determined that Kerry won the True Vote by 67-57m (53.2-45.4%). Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52.1-46.9% and the adjusted 12:22am Composite National Exit Poll by 50.8-48.2%. The analysis was based on 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares applied to an estimate of returning 2000 voters. The Census reported that 125.7m total votes were cast as opposed to the 122.3m recorded. Approximately 2.5m of the 3.4m discrepancy were Kerry votes. The Census figure was confirmed by investigative reporter Greg Palast who provided government records which indicated that 3.0m uncounted votes were a combination of provisional, absentee and spoiled ballots.
There is no reason to believe that 2008 will be any different than 2000 and 2004. At least 3% of total votes cast will be uncounted and 75-80% will be Obama’s.
The Sensitivity Analysis consists of two sets of tables.
They indicate Obama’s vote share and margin for 25 scenario combinations of:
1)Obama’s share of returning Kerry and Bush voters.
2)Obama’s share of returning Kerry and new voters (Did Not Vote in 2004).
You can download the Election Calculator:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator.htm
# posted by TruthIsAll : 10:56 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This was the original Cannon post:
Cokie Roberts...I can't believe I'm agreeing with Cokie Roberts...
http://cannonfire.blogspot.com/2008/05/cokie-robertsi-cant-believe-im-agreeing.html
I replied with the Election Calculator projection (see below).
Cannon responded to the projection with this:
TIA, you're making me regret ever saying nice things about you in these pages.
Your words are just...dumb. Obama win Florida? After being the single obstacle to a revote? Even though every single poll shows him losing handily to McCain? Even though he does not do well with seniors, Hispanics, and Jews?
Are you freaking NUTS?
Your problem is that you spend too much time over on DU. Those guys have gone out of their freaking gourds, man.
There will be no Democratic unity. Sorry to burst your bubble, dude. But if you want to know why, just read DU. Read Kos.
You're rationalizing. You lack the courage to face reality. But when reality finally slaps you in the face, don't blame vote fraud. Instead, remember what you heard here:
Obama ran a smear campaign in a primary. That is always a BAAAAD idea.
Obama's forces falsely accused the Clintons of racism. That move brought the black vote around, but it also got a lot of people like me PISSED OFF. And I mean pissed off forever. As Iraq was to Bush, so the race-card was to Obi. It was a party-rending, and perhaps party-ENDING, miscalculation.
# posted by Joseph : 3:40 PM
-----------------------------------------------------
TIA replied:
Joseph, with all due respect, your concerns are unfounded. There is no way in hell that McCain will even beat a ham sandwich.
The Democrats WILL unite. Look at the last 3 Republican congressional seats which flipped to the Dems.
Please read the detailed analysis of 2000,2004 and 2006 in the TruthisAll link.
There is no way that the GOP can pull off the massive ELECTION FRAUD (not voter fraud) to win this time around. But they will surely try.
And regarding those swing states, it is my view that Obama is a sure thing in PA, MI and OH, with a good shot in MO and VA.
If he gets 52% of the vote he will win 330 EV. With the projected 54%, it's over 400.
The Democrats won the TRUE VOTE in EVERY election since 1988. Do you realize that Dukakis led Bush in the exit polls? The Repukes can only win when they cheat- but we are finally on to their game.
The head to head polls mean nothing now. They will IMMEDIATELY move solidly to Obama in June after he clinches the nomination. Be prepared for an Obama LANDSLIDE. But also expect that his margin will be reduced from 12 to 3-5 million.
The GOP lives off uncounted and switched votes.
-----------------------------------------------------
Cannon replied:
Ah hell. TIA, I just figured it out.
You've never shown up here before -- at least, not for a long, long time. Suddenly, here you are, trying to reassure everyone that Obama is a sure thing, as sure as any other Democrat.
At the same time, I stopped receiving my usual hate mail from the two or three cranks who were hitting me on an hourly basis.
I really think Obi IS paying for this crap!
# posted by Joseph : 4:23 PM
TIA, this time around, I just don't know the basis of your statements. But based on polling and election dynamics, I can't see Obama winning Florida, Ohio, PA, MO, MI and VA. That's in a FAIR fight. Vote fraud can only make the sitch worse.
He just can't win.
Frankly, I would not bet on Hillary either, although her chances are somewhat better.
Yes, yes, I realise all of the problems with reliance on polling; there is no need to spout cliches at me. Polls must be used cautiously. Still, they represent the data that we have. I see NO reason for optimism in the purple states.
Actually, I think Obama may be such a down-ticket drag that he will flip the Senate.
The presumption of fraud in 2008 is just that: A presumption. The infrastructure for fraud may not be there this time around. The situation has changed in Florida, I think, and Kenny is not in his old position in Ohio.
# posted by Joseph : 11:17 AM
=========================================================================
Nov. 20, 2008
Joseph,
Well, here we are six months later. I always thought we were on the same team but your vitriol last May exactly mirrored that of the Hillbots on DU. And now Obama has won in a landslide which dwarfs his 8.5 million recorded vote margin.
You can read all about Election Fraud in the links below. The full extent of the landslide was denied to Obama just like it was to the Democrats in the 2006 midterms. Not to mention outright thefts in 2004, 2002, 2000. And let's not forget the 2008 primaries.
Quite a streak, eh?
You said I must have been freaking nuts.
No, just freaking rational.
You said I spend too much time at DU.
No, I was banned in 2005.
You said Obama would be a drag on the ticket; that he would "flip" the senate.
No, the Dems have 58-60 senate seats depending on the MN recount and the GA runoff.
You said my words were "dumb".
No, they were based on solid analysis (see the links).
You said I lacked "courage" to face reality.
No, you lacked the courage to question the footprints of fraud in the primaries.
You said I was rationalizing and that when reality finally slaps me in the face, I should not blame vote fraud.
No, I blame election fraud, not vote fraud, for minimizing the extent of Obama's landslide.
You should know the difference between fictitious voter fraud and real election fraud. Voter fraud is a myth. It never happens. It's a Rovian canard spread by the lapdog, lazy media.
You said Obama ran a smear campaign.
No, the smear campaign was directed at Obama, not by him.
He never claimed to have been under sniper fire in Bosnia.
He disavowed Rev. Wrights comments.
He withstood the attacks of racist bigots during the primaries and the campaign.
Obama is far from perfect. But his organization was near-perfect.His advisers were quite professional. Hillary's advisers were a disaster - but she hired them and should have known better.
You said Obama's forces falsely accused the Clintons of racism.
No, it was the Clinton's who falsely accused him of sexism.
You said that every single poll showed Obama losing handily to McCain.
No, that statement was completely false.
Check the head-to-head polls from Jan. 2008:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
The Election Model had Obama winning 365.3 EXPECTED electoral votes; he won 365. But guess what? I was wrong. Obama's True Vote (before the fraud) was better than the 67-58.5m recorded margin. So he probably had more than 365 EV.
Now, back to Hillary. There is much evidence which strongly suggests that the New Hampshire primary was rigged for HRC. And you must be familiar with Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos which encouraged thousands of Repubs to cross over and vote for Hillary in Ohio, Texas, Indiana and elsewhere. Recall that Texas and Indiana were very close; Obama would have won both were it not for Operation Chaos (he did win the Texas caucuses).
Contrary to media myth, Hillary did NOT win 18m votes; the Repubs stole a million or more from Obama. They wanted to run against Hillary - they knew they couldn't beat Obama or Edwards. That's why they had to steal NH for Hillary. Obama led ALL 10-15 pre-election polls the night before by an average of 8%. He also led the early exit polls by 8%, according to Chris Matthews.
But, FWIW, I agree that Hillary would have also beaten McCain.
Anyway, it's all here. I don't expect you to read all of it, but try to get the gist. And thanks for all the positive things you've said about my work - before 2008.
Peace out.
TIA
The Footprints of 2008 Primary Fraud:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimariesLinks.htm
The 2008 Election Calculator (from May 2008):
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator.htm
The 2008 Election Model - popular and electoral vote trend from May:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm
2008 Election anomalies: Uncounted votes, late votes and another bogus Final National Exit Poll (NEP):
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008StatAnomalies.htm
The Final 2008 NEP buried the pathetic naysayer Gore voter "false recall" canard used to "explain" the bogus Final 2004 NEP; more evidence the election was stolen.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008NEPScenarios.htm
The 2008 Election Model predicted the Recorded vote - not the True Vote
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008ElectionModel365EV.htm
2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm
Introduction to Probability and Statistics 101:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/IntroStatisticsProbability.htm
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is the May 2008 post on Cannonfire.
A Preliminary 2008 Recorded and True Vote Projection
TruthIsAll
The 2008 Election Calculator projects that Obama will win the True Vote in a landslide: 71-59m (54.1-44.7%). The model calculates the true vote based on vote shares applied to returning 2004 voters and the allocation of uncounted votes. But election fraud will reduce Obama’s recorded vote margin to 64-61m. The landslide will be denied due to election fraud, just like it was in the 2006 midterms in which the Democrats won 10-20 more seats than official results indicate. Obama is expected to do better than Kerry did in 2004 among blacks, Hispanics, new voters, moderate Republicans and Independents. He may not do as well among other, white Democrats. This analysis is based on an estimate of total votes cast; it does not include the millions of (mostly Democratic) disenfranchised voters.
In 2000 Al Gore won the recorded vote by 51.0-50.5m (48.4-47.9%). The Election Calculator determined that he won the True Vote by 55.3-51.4m (49.9-46.6%) which closely matched his 49.4% unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share. The U.S. Census reported that 110.8m total votes were cast in 2000 but only 105.4m were recorded. If not for 5.4m uncounted votes, Gore’s margin would have exceeded 3 million. In Florida, 185,000 spoiled ballots (not including absentee and provisional ballots) cost Gore 120,000 votes. He won the state by a minimum of 60,000 votes, but Bush won the recorded vote (and the Presidency) by 537.
In 2004 Bush won the recorded vote by 62-59m (50.7-48.3%). Once again, the Election Calculator determined that Kerry won the True Vote by 67-57m (53.2-45.4%). Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52.1-46.9% and the adjusted 12:22am Composite National Exit Poll by 50.8-48.2%. The analysis was based on 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares applied to an estimate of returning 2000 voters. The Census reported that 125.7m total votes were cast as opposed to the 122.3m recorded. Approximately 2.5m of the 3.4m discrepancy were Kerry votes. The Census figure was confirmed by investigative reporter Greg Palast who provided government records which indicated that 3.0m uncounted votes were a combination of provisional, absentee and spoiled ballots.
There is no reason to believe that 2008 will be any different than 2000 and 2004. At least 3% of total votes cast will be uncounted and 75-80% will be Obama’s.
The Sensitivity Analysis consists of two sets of tables.
They indicate Obama’s vote share and margin for 25 scenario combinations of:
1)Obama’s share of returning Kerry and Bush voters.
2)Obama’s share of returning Kerry and new voters (Did Not Vote in 2004).
You can download the Election Calculator:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator.htm
# posted by TruthIsAll : 10:56 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------