TruthIsAll
04-27-2008, 07:41 AM
Primary Election Fraud: Obama Should be the Nominee by Now
TruthIsAll
April 27, 2008
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimariesLinks.htm
Hillary thought she would have the nomination locked up by Super Tuesday, Feb.5. It didn’t happen. The GOP wanted to run against her from the start. They knew that they couldn’t beat Edwards in the GE, so they made sure that he would be out of the race if they got the media to ignore him. But Obama proved to be a much tougher opponent than either the GOP or Clinton ever expected.
So now Clinton and the GOP are doing everything they can to prop up Hillary and derail Obama. Beginning with her miraculous New Hampshire “win”, there has been an ongoing effort to pad her votes at Obama's expense. Rovian tactics are being used to divide and conquer: it’s the only way that McCain can win.
Just before the March 4, Texas and Ohio primaries, Rush Limbaugh called for an "Operation Chaos" to get Republicans to cross over and vote for Clinton. Prior to March 4, an average 5.6% of Democratic primary voters were Republicans who voted 57-26% for Obama. Since Operation Chaos, 10% were Republicans who voted 57-42% for Clinton.
http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Third_Party_Graphic/2008/03/17/1205744278_6778.gif
The Pennsylvania primary is just the most recent example of how dirty tricks caused votes (and pledged delegates) to be stolen from Obama. Hillary won the recorded vote by 54.7-45.3%. But 100% of the votes were machine-counted. The 5pm exit poll had Obama leading 52-47%. His 5% lead became a 9% loss – a highly unusual exit poll to vote shift.
There is every reason to expect that election fraud will also take place in the upcoming North Carolina and Indiana primaries. Obama’s expected solid NC win will be reduced to a close vote. And just like the PA primary, Indiana will morph into a solid 5-10% Clinton “victory”.
Obama currently leads Clinton by 500,000 in the recorded vote. But if the exit polls and caucuses reflect the True Vote, he would be leading by more than 1.5 million votes. That would make a tremendous difference in his pledged delegate margin. Obama would be the nominee right now were it not for election fraud. It’s the voting machines, stupid!
The media does not dicuss the many indications of election fraud. They want the “horserace”; it’s good for the ratings. So expect it to continue.
For Clinton to catch Obama in pledged delegates, she needs 69% of the vote in the remaining primaries. But if Obama wins 50%, he will need just 32% of the 295 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination. Since Super Tuesday there has been a steady trend in SDs to Obama.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator_26426_image001.png
Primaries, Caucuses and Exit Polls
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/Del%20Count%204-23.jpg
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimaryAndCaucusPopularVote.htm
Obama does much better in human-counted caucuses than in machine-counted primaries. Texas is a perfect example. There’s a 30% difference in Obama’s margin between the primaries (49.2-47.5%) and the caucuses (66.3-33.7%). His recorded vote margin is dwarfed by his lead in the exit polls. But that’s not unexpected; the progressive (i.e. Democratic) candidate always does better in the exit polls than in the vote count due to the endemic fraud: uncounted and switched votes. It’s not due to biased exit polling. Ideally, the exit poll discrepancies would be equally distributed between the two parties. The fact that they always move in favor of the most conservative candidate indicates a pattern of fraud which is beyond a reasonable doubt.
For the 21 primaries in which there were exit polls:
Obama leads by an average 50.4-45.8% (4.6% margin) in the exit polls.
Clinton leads by an average 48.4-47.1% (1.3% margin) in the recorded vote.
The discrepancy in margin from exit poll to the vote is 5.9%.
The exit poll-to-vote shift was in favor of Clinton in 18 of the 21 states.
The 2.5% Exit Poll MoE was exceeded in 11 of the 18 states.
The margin discrepancy exceeded 13% in 5 states.
The probability that all of these discrepancies would be due to chance is as close to zero as you can get.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/0PAprimarypolls_8669_image001.png
New Hampshire
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/NHBeyondReasonableDoubt.htm
The Final pre-election polls (3-4% MoE) gave Obama an average 8% margin over HRC. The early (unadjusted) exit poll had Obama winning by 8%. He won New Hampshire hand-counts by 5.90% but lost machine-counts by exactly the same margin.
South Carolina
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/SCPrimaryExitPoll.htm
Even though he finished third, Edwards would have done better in the general election than either Clinton or Obama.
Super Tuesday
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/SuperTuesdayShift.htm
Just like the 2004 battleground states exit poll red-shift to Bush, Clinton’s recorded vote share in 14 of 16 primaries have exceeded her exit poll share. In New York, over 80 precincts, many in black areas, recorded Zero votes for Obama. Mayor Bloomberg called it fraud. In Los Angeles, 90,000 independent votes were uncounted due to the confusing ballot design (shades of the infamous Florida 2000 “Butterfly” which cost Gore over 3,000 votes).
Ohio
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/OhioOldReliable.htm
Clinton's vote share exceeded her 9pm exit poll share by 3.6% (55.2-51.6%). She won the recorded vote by 10.6% (55.3-44.7%) over Obama. But her exit poll margin was just 3.4% (51.7-48.3%). As always, the Final Exit Poll was adjusted to match the vote count. In addition, there is concrete evidence that Republican cross-over voters played a significant role in delivering votes to Clinton. In Cuyahoga County 17,000 Republicans followed Rush Limbaugh’s advice and voted for her. And this was also the case in many other counties.
Texas
There was a strange, impossible result: Zero votes were cast for Republicans in 21 counties (all 36,239 ballots cast were for Democrats). There were zero votes cast for Democrats in 3 counties (all 1865 ballots cast were for Republicans). Did Republicans follow Rush Limbaugh’s advice and cross over to vote for Clinton? We can assume that crossovers, even if not 100%, occurred in other counties.
Mississippi
Obama won by 61-37%, but 25% of Clinton’s votes came from Republicans who followed the advice of Rush Limbaugh. Obama won 65% of Democrats and Independents.
The Delegate Calculator is an Excel worksheet model for projecting the total number delegates.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.htm
TruthIsAll
April 27, 2008
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimariesLinks.htm
Hillary thought she would have the nomination locked up by Super Tuesday, Feb.5. It didn’t happen. The GOP wanted to run against her from the start. They knew that they couldn’t beat Edwards in the GE, so they made sure that he would be out of the race if they got the media to ignore him. But Obama proved to be a much tougher opponent than either the GOP or Clinton ever expected.
So now Clinton and the GOP are doing everything they can to prop up Hillary and derail Obama. Beginning with her miraculous New Hampshire “win”, there has been an ongoing effort to pad her votes at Obama's expense. Rovian tactics are being used to divide and conquer: it’s the only way that McCain can win.
Just before the March 4, Texas and Ohio primaries, Rush Limbaugh called for an "Operation Chaos" to get Republicans to cross over and vote for Clinton. Prior to March 4, an average 5.6% of Democratic primary voters were Republicans who voted 57-26% for Obama. Since Operation Chaos, 10% were Republicans who voted 57-42% for Clinton.
http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Third_Party_Graphic/2008/03/17/1205744278_6778.gif
The Pennsylvania primary is just the most recent example of how dirty tricks caused votes (and pledged delegates) to be stolen from Obama. Hillary won the recorded vote by 54.7-45.3%. But 100% of the votes were machine-counted. The 5pm exit poll had Obama leading 52-47%. His 5% lead became a 9% loss – a highly unusual exit poll to vote shift.
There is every reason to expect that election fraud will also take place in the upcoming North Carolina and Indiana primaries. Obama’s expected solid NC win will be reduced to a close vote. And just like the PA primary, Indiana will morph into a solid 5-10% Clinton “victory”.
Obama currently leads Clinton by 500,000 in the recorded vote. But if the exit polls and caucuses reflect the True Vote, he would be leading by more than 1.5 million votes. That would make a tremendous difference in his pledged delegate margin. Obama would be the nominee right now were it not for election fraud. It’s the voting machines, stupid!
The media does not dicuss the many indications of election fraud. They want the “horserace”; it’s good for the ratings. So expect it to continue.
For Clinton to catch Obama in pledged delegates, she needs 69% of the vote in the remaining primaries. But if Obama wins 50%, he will need just 32% of the 295 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination. Since Super Tuesday there has been a steady trend in SDs to Obama.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator_26426_image001.png
Primaries, Caucuses and Exit Polls
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/Del%20Count%204-23.jpg
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimaryAndCaucusPopularVote.htm
Obama does much better in human-counted caucuses than in machine-counted primaries. Texas is a perfect example. There’s a 30% difference in Obama’s margin between the primaries (49.2-47.5%) and the caucuses (66.3-33.7%). His recorded vote margin is dwarfed by his lead in the exit polls. But that’s not unexpected; the progressive (i.e. Democratic) candidate always does better in the exit polls than in the vote count due to the endemic fraud: uncounted and switched votes. It’s not due to biased exit polling. Ideally, the exit poll discrepancies would be equally distributed between the two parties. The fact that they always move in favor of the most conservative candidate indicates a pattern of fraud which is beyond a reasonable doubt.
For the 21 primaries in which there were exit polls:
Obama leads by an average 50.4-45.8% (4.6% margin) in the exit polls.
Clinton leads by an average 48.4-47.1% (1.3% margin) in the recorded vote.
The discrepancy in margin from exit poll to the vote is 5.9%.
The exit poll-to-vote shift was in favor of Clinton in 18 of the 21 states.
The 2.5% Exit Poll MoE was exceeded in 11 of the 18 states.
The margin discrepancy exceeded 13% in 5 states.
The probability that all of these discrepancies would be due to chance is as close to zero as you can get.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/0PAprimarypolls_8669_image001.png
New Hampshire
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/NHBeyondReasonableDoubt.htm
The Final pre-election polls (3-4% MoE) gave Obama an average 8% margin over HRC. The early (unadjusted) exit poll had Obama winning by 8%. He won New Hampshire hand-counts by 5.90% but lost machine-counts by exactly the same margin.
South Carolina
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/SCPrimaryExitPoll.htm
Even though he finished third, Edwards would have done better in the general election than either Clinton or Obama.
Super Tuesday
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/SuperTuesdayShift.htm
Just like the 2004 battleground states exit poll red-shift to Bush, Clinton’s recorded vote share in 14 of 16 primaries have exceeded her exit poll share. In New York, over 80 precincts, many in black areas, recorded Zero votes for Obama. Mayor Bloomberg called it fraud. In Los Angeles, 90,000 independent votes were uncounted due to the confusing ballot design (shades of the infamous Florida 2000 “Butterfly” which cost Gore over 3,000 votes).
Ohio
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/OhioOldReliable.htm
Clinton's vote share exceeded her 9pm exit poll share by 3.6% (55.2-51.6%). She won the recorded vote by 10.6% (55.3-44.7%) over Obama. But her exit poll margin was just 3.4% (51.7-48.3%). As always, the Final Exit Poll was adjusted to match the vote count. In addition, there is concrete evidence that Republican cross-over voters played a significant role in delivering votes to Clinton. In Cuyahoga County 17,000 Republicans followed Rush Limbaugh’s advice and voted for her. And this was also the case in many other counties.
Texas
There was a strange, impossible result: Zero votes were cast for Republicans in 21 counties (all 36,239 ballots cast were for Democrats). There were zero votes cast for Democrats in 3 counties (all 1865 ballots cast were for Republicans). Did Republicans follow Rush Limbaugh’s advice and cross over to vote for Clinton? We can assume that crossovers, even if not 100%, occurred in other counties.
Mississippi
Obama won by 61-37%, but 25% of Clinton’s votes came from Republicans who followed the advice of Rush Limbaugh. Obama won 65% of Democrats and Independents.
The Delegate Calculator is an Excel worksheet model for projecting the total number delegates.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.htm