DU poster ccharles000 says that Obama had 600,000 more votes than Kerry in NC.
That is true.
By citing the recorded vote, he implicitly assumes there was zero fraud.
That is false.
He closes with: "It also helps when the Dem candidate comes here".

Memo to ccharles000: It would help even more if the votes were not miscounted.

NC has a history of miscounted votes. Consider 1996:
Dole defeated Clintonin the official, recorded vote: 48.7-44.0%
Clinton led the Unadjusted Exit Poll: 47.3-45.5%
Clinton led in total votes cast (include uncounted): 48.1-44.3%

Since 1996, the average Democratic NC True Vote was 4-5% higher than recorded.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x8482683

ccharles000 (1000+ posts) Thu Jun-18-09 10:27 PM
Original message
How much better did Obama do than Kerry in North Carolina.

Edited on Thu Jun-18-09 10:31 PM by ccharles000
Obama improved on Kerry by 597,541 votes and won the state by .4% or 13,692 votes.
Obama did better than Kerry in all but seven counties. Here are the results from
some of the most populated counties: Mecklenburg(Charlotte)Obama improved on Kerry
by 10%, Wake(Raleigh)8%, and in Guilford(Greensboro and where I live)Obama did 9%
better than Kerry. With the hispanic population rising and young people being more
Democratic than Conservative and all the Yanks(I love you) moving here My beautiful
state of North Carolina will be a swing state for now and than it will hopefully
become a true blue state.

PS. It also helps when the Dem candidate comes here.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

The True Vote is based on a FEASIBLE mix of returning voters and National Exit Poll vote shares adjusted by the state/national vote ratio.

The returning voter mix is based on these scenarios for the previous election:
1) Recorded vote (assumes zero uncounted votes - cannot be correct).
2) Total Votes cast (includes uncounted votes - closer to the True Vote).
3) Unadjusted (WPE/IMS) exit poll (close to the True Vote).

Obama did significantly better in NC than his official 49.7% share indicates.
His True Vote share was 53.9-56.5%.
Unadjusted and preliminary state and national exit polls have not been released.

Kerry did significantly better in NC than his official 43.6% share. He may have even won the state.
His True Vote share was 47.0-49.5%.
His unadjusted exit poll share was 49.5%.

NC True Vote Election Calculator Model Summary Analysis.

[code]
Recorded Vote and unadjusted exit poll share:
NC Gore Kerry Obama Avg
Election 2000 2004 2008 Total
Recorded 43.2 43.6 49.7 45.5
Exit 48.1 49.5 na 48.8

True Vote Model share (3 methods):
Method Gore Kerry Obama Avg
Prior 2000 2004 2008 Total
Recorded 43.0 46.4 53.7 47.7
Votes Cast 45.4 47.0 53.9 48.8
Exit Poll 44.8 49.5 56.5 50.3


2000
Bush won the True Vote by approximately 300,000.

NC 1996 1996 2000 ---Vote shares--- ---Votes (000)---
Cast Record Alive Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other Total
DNV - - - 353 11.8% 46.9% 52.1% 1.0% 165 184 4 353
Clinton 1,370 1,108 1,301 1,249 41.7% 83.4% 16.2% 0.4% 1,042 202 5 1,249
Dole 1,318 1,226 1,252 1,202 40.1% 6.3% 93.5% 0.2% 75 1,124 2 1,202
Other 210 182 199 191 6.4% 30.3% 65.4% 4.3% 58 125 8 191

True 2,897 2,516 2,752 2,995 44.75% 54.60% 0.65% 1,340 1,635 19 2,995

1996 Clinton Dole Other Recorded 43.20% 56.03% 0.77% 1,258 1,631 22 2,911
Record 44.04% 48.73% 7.24% Discrepancy 1.55% -1.43% -0.12% 82 4 (3) 84
ExitP 47.29% 45.48% 7.24% Exit Poll 48.10% 51.13% 0.77% 1,400 1,489 22 2,911
Cast 48.11% 44.29% 7.60% Discrepancy -3.35% 3.47% -0.12% -60 147 (3) 84




2004
The True Vote Model and the unadjusted exit poll agree it was a tossup.


NC 2000 2000 2004 ---Vote shares--- ---Votes (000)---
Cast Record Alive Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
DNV - - - 851 23.4% 52.8% 46.4% 0.8% 449 394 7 851
Gore 1,441 1,258 1,369 1,341 36.9% 90.1% 9.5% 0.4% 1,209 127 5 1,341
Bush 1,531 1,631 1,455 1,426 39.2% 9.0% 91.0% 0.0% 129 1,297 0 1,426
Other 23 22 22 21 0.6% 60.5% 31.9% 7.6% 13 7 2 21

True 2,995 2,911 2,845 3,639 49.46% 50.16% 0.38% 1,800 1,825 14 3,639

2000 Gore Bush Other Recorded 43.58% 56.02% 0.40% 1,526 1,961 14 3,501
Record 43.20% 56.03% 0.77% Discrepancy 5.88% -5.86% -0.02% 274 (136) (0) 138
ExitP 48.10% 51.13% 0.77% Exit Poll 49.53% 50.07% 0.40% 1,734 1,753 14 3,501
Cast 44.09% 55.02% 0.89% Discrepancy -0.07% 0.09% -0.02% 66 73 (0) 138




2008
Obama easily won the True Vote by 400-600k.


NC 2004 2004 2008 ---Vote shares--- ---Votes (000)---
Cast Record Alive Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other Total
DNV - - - 1,001 23.0% 71.4% 27.4% 1.2% 715 274 12 1,001
Kerry 1,803 1,526 1,712 1,661 38.1% 88.3% 11.0% 0.6% 1,467 184 10 1,661
Bush 1,822 1,961 1,731 1,679 38.6% 16.0% 83.1% 0.9% 268 1,395 15 1,679
Other 15 14 14 13 0.3% 64.0% 22.6% 13.4% 9 3 2 13

True 3,639 3,501 3,457 4,355 56.47% 42.62% 0.91% 2,459 1,856 40 4,355

2004 Kerry Bush Other Recorded 49.70% 49.38% 0.92% 2,143 2,128 40 4,311
Record 43.58% 56.02% 0.40% Discrepancy 6.76% -6.75% -0.01% 316 (272) (0) 44
ExitP 49.53% 50.07% 0.40% Exit Poll na na na
Cast 44.77% 54.65% 0.57% Discrepancy


This graph depicts the timeline of adjustments to the pristine 2004 state exit polls:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004ElectionCalculator_2846_image001.gif