Footprints:1988 - 2004 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

An analysis of state exit poll discrepancies for the 1988-2004 elections yields an interesting pattern. The data is from Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International: "Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004" (January 19, 2005).

http://www.ap.org/media/pdf/EvaluationEdisonMitofsky.pdf

E-M provided unadjusted exit poll data for 238 of 255 state presidential elections from 1988 to 2004. They define Within Precinct Error (WPE) as the difference between the unadjusted exit poll margin and the recorded vote margin. “Error” implies that the exit polls were wrong. But millions of votes are uncounted in every election (nearly 11 million in 1988 and 4 million in 2004). Therefore, it is more accurate to refer to Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). A positive WPD indicates that the vote shift favored the GOP; a negative WPD favored the Democrat.

For example, in NY 2004 the 12.2 WPD is the difference between Kerry’s exit poll (30.3) and recorded vote margin (18.1). Kerry’s unadjusted exit poll share was 6.1% higher than his recorded share, far exceeding the 2-3% margin of error (MoE). The WPD is double the share deviation.



NY Share Kerry Bush Margin
Exit Poll 64.5 34.2 30.3
Recorded 58.4 40.3 18.1
WPD +6.1 -6.1 12 .2

Of the 238 state elections, 194 shifted from the exit poll to the vote for the Republican and 44 to the Democrat.

Shift to 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 Total Share
Dem 5 14 10 4 11 44 18.5%
GOP 46 32 37 44 35 194 81.5%
Total 51 46 47 48 46 238 100%



One would expect an approximately equal shift. The fact that 82% vote shifted to the Republican over the five presidential elections was either due to errors in the exit polls or vote miscounts. It could not have been due to chance. But we have 238 exit polls, not just a few. Exit polls are known to be quite accurate – outside the USA.

Assuming a 3% MoE for each of the 238 state exit polls:
- In 15 Democratic states, the average WPD was 4.9. The MoE was exceeded in 25 elections, ALL for the Republican.
- In 15 Battleground states, the average WPD was 3.8. The MoE was also exceeded in 25 elections, ALL for the Republican.
- In 21 Republican states, the average WPD was 2.3. The MoE was exceeded in 15 elections, ALL but ONE for the Republican.

Were the discrepancies due to Republican voters reluctance to be polled in each of the five elections? Not likely.
Were they due to Democratic voters misstating how they voted to the exit pollsters and actually voting for the Republican in each of the five elections? Not likely.

Or were they due to the millions of mostly Democratic votes that were uncounted? That is more than likely. It is a fact.
Or were they due to votes that were miscounted in favor of the Republican? That is quite likely.

We assume a conservative 3% unadjusted exit poll margin of error for each state election. Since the vote share deviation is one-half the WPD, a 3% MoE is exceeded when the WPD is at least 6%. Given the 95% confidence level, approximately 12 of 238 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error (6 for the Democrats and 6 for the Republicans). But the MoE was exceeded in 65 elections - 64 in favor of the Republicans. The probability is ZERO that this was due to chance.

Assuming a more realistic 2% exit poll MoE, it would be exceeded if the WPD were at least 4%. The 2% MoE was exceeded in 108 of 238 state elections: 99 in favor of the Republican, 9 in favor of the Democrats.

The probability that the MoE would be exceeded a given state is 1/20 (5%). It is 1/40 (2.5%) for the Democrat and 2.5% for the Republican.
The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in at least N of 238 state elections is given by the Excel BINOMDIST function:

Prob =1- BINOMDIST (N-1, 238, 2.5%, TRUE)

The following table lists the probability that the MoE would be exceeded in at least N of 238 states.

The function cuts off at N=34, a 1 in 200 trillion probability.
Imagine what it is for 64 states.



N Probability or 1 in
2 93.8% 1
5 54.8% 2
10 3.9% 26
15 0.04% 2,642
20 7.9E-07 1,258,312
25 4.8E-10 2,080,038,070
30 1.1E-13 9,324,222,830,995
34 5.0E-15 200,159,983,438,689
---
64 ??????


Let’s take a closer look at the 2004 election.
- The average Democratic state WPD was a whopping 8.9. The MoE was exceeded in 11 of 15 states (73%) - all for Bush.
- The average Battleground state WPD was 6.9. The MoE was exceeded in 10 of 15 states (67%) for Bush and none for Kerry.
- The average Republican state WPD was 3.8. The MoE was exceeded in 7 of 21 states (33%) - all for Bush.

The 3% margin of error was exceeded in a total of 28 states - all in favor of Bush. The probability is 1 in 19 trillion that the MoE would be exceeded in 16 states. Imagine what the probability is for 28 states.

Assuming a 2% MoE, the probability is even lower since the MoE was exceeded in 36 states: 34 in favor of Bush, 2 in favor of Kerry.

The distribution of the WPD in Democratic, GOP and Battleground states indicates that the GOP strategy was:
1) Pad Bush’s popular vote "mandate" by cutting Democratic margins in heavily populated BLUE states (NY, CA, CT, NJ, MD, MA, MI).
2) Steal the electoral votes in Battleground states (FL, OH, NM, CO, NV, MO, IA).
3) Pad the vote in RED states with large minority (Democratic) voting blocs (TX, MS, AL, TN, SC). Ignore the others (ND, SD, OK, MT, KY).

Unadjusted exit poll data has not been released for 2008. Is it because the data would confirm what the 1988-2004 exit polls indicate? In every election, the Democrats do much better than the official recorded vote indicates. As always, the Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. A True Vote Model (see below) indicates that Obama won by over 22 million votes.

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Historical WPD

WPD 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 Avg
Wtd 7.40 2.01 1.93 5.40 2.38 3.82

States Exceeding the Margin of Error
3% 28 4 6 20 7 65 (64 favored the Republican, 1 the Democrat)
2% 36 15 12 30 15 108 (99 favored the Republican, 9 the Democrat)


15 Democratic states (4.9 average WPD)

2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 Total
MoE
> 3% 11 2 0 9 3 25 25 states exceeded the 3% MoE (WPD >6) for the GOP, none for the Dems
> 2% 14 4 4 13 8 43 42 exceeded the 2% MoE (WPD >4) for the GOP, 1 for the Dems

WPD Avg 8.9 3.0 1.8 7.3 4.0 4.9

CA 11.6 3.8 4.7 8.5 3.8 6.5
CT 16.0 0.9 -4.2 8.3 5.2 5.2
DE 15.9 7.1 1.3 7.3 1.8 6.7
DC 2.8 na na na na 2.8
HI 8.2 na na na 0.6 4.4

IL 3.5 6.4 -1.2 6.1 2.6 3.5
ME 4.0 2.1 4.4 5.1 6.4 4.4
MD 7.3 4.3 3.6 8.1 5.2 5.7
MA 7.7 4.3 3.3 7.1 6.8 5.8
MI 6.4 2.2 3.5 4.9 1.2 3.6

NJ 9.1 0.4 1.9 11.2 4.2 5.4
NY 12.2 3.3 -2.1 4.6 7.2 5.0
RI 5.3 0.4 1.1 9.0 -0.2 3.1
VT 15.2 -0.4 5.0 8.6 5.8 6.8
WA 8.0 3.7 2.0 5.5 5.4 4.9



15 Battleground states (3.8 average WPD)

2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 Total
MoE
>3% 10 2 4 6 3 25 25 states exceeded the 3% MoE for the GOP, none for the Dems
>2% 12 5 5 9 3 34 31 exceeded the 2% MoE for the GOP, 3 for the Dems

WPD Avg 6.9 0.8 3.8 5.2 1.9 3.8

CO 6.1 5.6 1.5 7.2 3.0 4.7
FL 7.8 0.6 0.6 5.5 2.4 3.4
IA 3.0 -3.0 -0.3 2.0 0.6 0.5
MN 9.2 -0.5 -1.7 6.4 -1.2 2.4
MO 5.8 -1.8 5.8 8.6 0.6 3.8

NV 9.9 6.0 na -2.1 3.0 4.2
NH 14.0 2.4 12.2 10.1 6.0 8.9
NM 8.0 -5.1 7.0 6.3 6.6 4.6
NC 11.9 9.8 6.5 4.2 0.4 6.6
OH 10.6 1.0 3.1 4.4 1.6 4.1

OR 1.8 na 2.4 13.6 7.4 6.3
PA 8.4 0.8 3.6 2.0 0.8 3.1
VA 8.7 2.0 6.5 3.5 -0.6 4.0
WI 4.8 -2.4 2.8 2.5 -2.2 1.1
WV -5.9 -4.5 2.6 3.2 0.2 -0.9


21 Republican states (2.3 average WPD)

2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 Total
MoE
>3% 7 0 2 5 1 15 14 states exceeded the 3% MoE for the GOP, 1 for the Dems
>2% 10 6 3 8 4 31 26 states exceeded the 2% MoE for the GOP, 5 for the Dems

WPD Avg 3.8 0.8 1.6 3.4 1.1 2.3

AL 10.0 5.5 2.4 1.2 na 4.8
AK 9.3 na na na 1.2 5.3
AZ 0.3 na 7.7 6.6 na 3.7
AR 1.3 3.2 -1.5 7.8 -0.8 2.0
GA 1.3 5.6 -3.3 6.5 -1.8 1.7

ID 4.0 -2.5 3.5 0.5 na 1.4
IN 2.2 3.6 2.0 6.8 9.2 4.8
KS 1.1 4.4 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.1
KY 0.4 -4.4 -1.0 3.9 1.0 0.0
LA 2.6 0.6 -6.5 -1.0 2.4 -0.4

MS 18.5 3.2 0.3 5.1 -0.2 5.4
MT -2.6 -3.2 2.4 -0.7 4.4 0.1
NE 8.7 4.1 6.5 2.8 5.0 5.4
ND -1.7 -2.0 2.0 4.2 1.6 0.8
OK -1.2 -4.7 -2.0 4.7 -5.6 -1.8

SC 9.7 3.5 2.8 2.0 1.4 3.9
SD -5.1 0.9 2.3 -2.8 1.0 -0.7
TN 1.3 -2.2 3.0 6.8 -1.0 1.6
TX 7.6 0.4 0.6 2.8 -0.8 2.1
UT 4.3 -1.0 3.5 2.2 na 2.3
WY 7.0 1.0 3.9 5.9 -1.0 3.4


Shift from Unadjusted Exit Poll to Recorded Vote

Shift to 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 Total Share
Dem 5 14 10 4 11 44 18.5%
GOP 46 32 37 44 35 194 81.5%
Total 51 46 47 48 46 238 100%

> 3% MoE
Dem 0 0 1 0 0 1 0.4% of 238
GOP 28 4 6 20 7 65 27.3%
Total 28 4 7 20 7 66 27.7%

> 2% MoE
To Dem 2 4 2 0 1 9 3.8% of 238
To GOP 34 11 10 31 14 100 42.0%
Total 36 15 12 31 15 109 45.8%

Shift to Dem
Battleground 1 6 2 1 3 13 17.8% of 73
Dem 0 1 3 0 1 5 7.5% of 67
GOP 4 7 5 3 7 26 26.5% of 98
Total 5 14 10 4 11 44 18.5% of 238

Shift to GOP
Battleground 14 8 12 14 12 60 82.2% of 73
Dem 15 12 10 13 13 63 94.0% of 67
GOP 17 12 15 17 10 71 72.4% of 98
Total 46 32 37 44 35 194 81.5% of 238

To Dem >2% MoE
Battleground 1 2 0 0 0 3 4.1% of 73
Dem 0 0 1 0 0 1 1.5% of 67
GOP 1 2 1 0 1 5 5.1% of 98
Total 2 4 2 0 1 9 3.8% of 238

To GOP > 2% MoE
Battleground 11 3 3 9 3 29 39.7% of 73
Dem 13 4 3 13 8 41 61.2% of 67
GOP 10 4 3 9 3 29 29.6% of 98
Total 34 11 9 31 14 99 41.6% of 238



2008 National Exit Poll
(Forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible mix of returning Bush, Kerry and 3rd party voters)

National 2004 2004 2008 Turnout ---Vote shares--- ---Votes (000)---
Cast Recorded Alive Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other Total
DNV - - - 17,078 13% 71% 27% 2% 12,125 4,611 341 17,078
Kerry 62,158 59,028 56,077 48,607 37% 89% 10% 1% 43,260 4,861 486 48,607
Bush 62,313 62,041 58,939 60,430 46% 17% 82% 1% 10,273 49,553 604 60,430
Other 1,266 1,224 1,163 5,255 4% 66% 12% 22% 3,468 631 1,156 5,255

Match 125,737 122,294 116,179 131,370 365EV 52.62% 45.41% 1.97% 69,127 59,656 2,587 131,370

2004 Kerry Bush Other Recorded 365EV 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69,457 59,935 1,978 131,370
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% Discrepancy -0.25% -0.21% 0.46% -330 (280) 610 0
ExitP 51.97% 47.03% 1.00%



2008 True Vote Analysis

2004 National 2008 Turnout in 2008 Unctd / stuffed
Cast Official Unctd Alive Cast Official Unctd Mortality Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Other
125.7 122.3 3.4 119.4 132.6 131.4 1.2 6.6 97% 97% 75% 24% 1%
- 97.3% 2.7% 95.0% - 99.1% 0.9% 5.0% - - 0% 100% -

Vote (mil) Pct Share (%) Vote (mil)
MoE 2004 Cast Recorded Alive Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other Total
1.6% DNV - - - 16.4 12.4 71 27 2 11.7 4.4 0.3 16.4
1.1% Kerry 67.1 59.0 63.8 61.9 46.8 89 10 1 55.1 6.2 0.6 61.9
1.3% Bush 57.0 62.0 54.1 52.5 39.7 17 82 1 8.9 43.0 0.5 52.5
1.6% Other 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.1 66 12 22 1.0 0.2 0.3 1.5

True 125.7 122.3 119.5 132.3 419EV 57.9 40.7 1.4 76.7 53.8 1.8 132.3

2004 Bush Kerry Other Recorded 52.9 45.6 1.5 69.5 59.9 2.0 131.4
Recorded 50.7 48.3 1.0 Diff 5.1 -4.9 -0.1 7.2 -6.1 -0.2 0.9
ExitP 48.1 50.9 1.0
Cast 45.3 53.4 1.3


Bush Kerry voter turnout Share of Obama Share of DNV
turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 69% 70% 71% 72% 73%
MoE 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% MoE 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5%
Obama Share (%) Obama Share (%)
90% 58.9 59.1 59.2 59.4 59.6 19% 58.5 58.6 58.7 58.9 59.0
92% 58.4 58.6 58.8 59.0 59.1 18% 58.1 58.2 58.3 58.5 58.6
94% 58.0 58.2 58.3 58.5 58.7 17% 57.7 57.8 57.9 58.1 58.2
96% 57.6 57.7 57.9 58.1 58.2 16% 57.3 57.4 57.5 57.7 57.8
98% 57.1 57.3 57.5 57.6 57.8 15% 56.9 57.0 57.1 57.3 57.4

Obama Margin (mil.) Obama Margin (mil.)
90% 25.4 25.8 26.3 26.7 27.1 19% 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.6
92% 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.5 26.0 18% 23.2 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.5
94% 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.3 24.8 17% 22.1 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.5
96% 21.8 22.3 22.7 23.2 23.6 16% 21.1 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.4
98% 20.7 21.1 21.5 22.0 22.4 15% 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.4

Obama Electoral Vote Obama Electoral Vote
90% 419 419 425 428 434 19% 419 419 419 419 419
92% 419 419 419 419 419 18% 419 419 419 419 419
94% 419 419 419 419 419 17% 408 419 419 419 419
96% 419 419 419 419 419 16% 397 397 408 408 419
98% 389 397 408 408 419 15% 389 389 389 408 408




Recorded Vote True Vote Flipped to
Obama McCain Margin EV Obama McCain Margin EV McCain
69.5 59.9 9.5 365 76.7 53.8 22.8 420 5
52.9% 45.6% 7.2% 57.9% 40.7% 17.2% 55 EV

AL 38.7 60.3 -21.6 44.7 54.4 -9.7
AK 37.9 59.4 -21.5 44.5 52.8 -8.3
AZ 44.9 53.4 -8.5 50.9 47.4 3.5 10 10
AR 38.9 58.7 -19.9 47.0 50.6 -3.6
CA 61.0 36.9 24.0 55 60.9 37.0 23.8 55

CO 53.7 44.7 9.0 9 55.8 42.6 13.2 9
CT 60.6 38.2 22.4 7 62.9 35.9 27.0 7
DE 61.9 36.9 25.0 3 61.3 37.6 23.7 3
DC 92.5 6.5 85.9 3 89.9 9.1 80.7 3
FL 50.9 48.1 2.8 27 55.8 43.2 12.5 27

GA 46.9 52.1 -5.2 50.8 48.2 2.6 15 15
HI 71.8 26.6 45.3 4 63.6 34.9 28.7 4
ID 36.0 61.3 -25.3 38.9 58.4 -19.5
IL 61.9 36.8 25.1 21 61.1 37.6 23.5 21
IN 49.9 48.9 1.0 11 49.6 49.2 0.5 11

IA 53.9 44.4 9.5 7 54.6 43.7 10.9 7
KS 41.6 56.5 -14.9 43.0 55.1 -12.1
KY 41.1 57.4 -16.2 45.1 53.4 -8.4
LA 39.9 58.6 -18.6 46.2 52.3 -6.1
ME 57.7 40.4 17.3 4 58.9 39.1 19.8 4

MD 61.9 36.5 25.4 10 62.6 35.8 26.8 10
MA 61.8 36.0 25.8 12 65.0 32.7 32.3 12
MI 57.4 40.9 16.5 17 57.4 40.9 16.5 17
MN 54.1 43.8 10.2 10 55.8 42.1 13.7 10
MS 43.0 56.2 -13.2 47.9 51.3 -3.3

MO 49.3 49.4 -0.1 52.1 46.5 5.6 11 11
MT 47.2 49.4 -2.3 46.5 50.1 -3.6
NE 41.6 56.5 -14.9 1 40.7 57.5 -16.8 1
NV 55.1 42.7 12.5 5 56.3 41.6 14.7 5
NH 54.1 44.5 9.6 4 56.3 42.4 13.9 4

NJ 57.2 41.6 15.5 15 59.2 39.6 19.6 15
NM 56.9 41.8 15.1 5 57.0 41.7 15.3 5
NY 62.8 36.1 26.7 31 64.2 34.7 29.5 31
NC 49.7 49.4 0.3 15 53.7 45.4 8.4 15
ND 44.5 53.1 -8.6 42.6 54.9 -12.3

OH 51.4 46.8 4.5 20 54.4 43.8 10.6 20
OK 34.4 65.6 -31.3 39.8 60.2 -20.4
OR 56.7 40.4 16.3 7 55.6 41.5 14.1 7
PA 54.5 44.2 10.3 21 56.3 42.3 14.0 21
RI 63.1 35.2 27.9 4 64.9 33.4 31.5 4

SC 44.9 53.9 -9.0 50.2 48.6 1.6 8 8
SD 44.7 53.2 -8.4 45.6 52.3 -6.8
TN 41.8 56.9 -15.1 49.9 48.8 1.1 11 11
TX 43.6 55.4 -11.8 46.4 52.6 -6.2
UT 34.3 62.3 -28.1 33.6 63.1 -29.5

VT 67.5 30.5 37.0 3 65.5 32.4 33.1 3
VA 52.6 46.3 6.3 13 55.7 43.2 12.5 13
WA 57.4 40.3 17.1 11 58.6 39.1 19.5 11
WV 42.6 55.7 -13.1 46.2 52.1 -5.9
WI 56.2 42.3 13.9 10 55.3 43.2 12.2 10
WY 32.5 64.8 -32.2 35.2 62.1 -27.0



Final 2004 NEP
Forced to Match the Recorded Vote

95% 98% 2004
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Recorded NEP NEP NEP Vote Shares Turnout%
2000 2000 2000 2004 Turnout Turnout %Mix Kerry Bush Other Recorded
DNV - - - - 20.79 17 54 45 1 -
Gore 48.4% 51.00 51.00 48.45 47.48 45.25 37 90 10 0 93
Bush 47.9% 50.46 50.46 47.93 46.97 52.59 43 9 91 0 110
Other 3.8% 3.96 3.96 3.76 3.69 3.67 3 64 9 27 98
Margin
Total 105.42 105.42 100.15 98.14 252 EV 122.3 Share 48.3% 50.8% 1.0% -2.5%
Vote 59.03 62.07 1.20 -3.03



2004 True Vote Analysis

2000 National 2004 Turnout in 2004 Unctd / stuffed
Cast Official Unctd Alive Cast Official Unctd Mortality Gore Bush Gore Bush Other
110.8 105.4 5.4 105.3 125.7 122.3 3.4 6.1 98% 98% 75% 24% 1%
- 95.1% 4.9% 95.0% - 97.3% 2.7% 5.0% - - 0% 100% -

Vote (mil) Pct Share (%) Vote (mil)
MoE 2000 Cast Recorded Alive Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
1.7% DNV - - - 22.6 17.9 57 41 2 12.9 9.3 0.4 22.6
1.0% Gore 55.8 51.0 53.0 51.9 41.3 91 8 1 47.3 4.2 0.5 51.9
1.0% Bush 51.0 50.5 48.5 47.5 37.8 10 90 0 4.8 42.8 0.0 47.5
1.7% Other 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.0 64 17 19 2.4 0.6 0.7 3.7

True 110.8 105.4 105.3 125.7 379EV 53.5 45.2 1.3 67.3 56.8 1.7 125.7

2000 Bush Gore Other Recorded 48.3 50.7 1.0 59.0 62.0 1.2 122.3
Recorded 47.9 48.4 3.8 Diff 5.2 -5.5 0.3 8.2 -5.2 0.4 3.4
ExitP 46.9 49.4 3.8 Exit Poll 51.9 47.1 1.0 63.5 57.6 1.2 122.3
Cast 46.1 50.3 3.6 Diff 1.6 -1.9 0.3 3.8 -0.8 0.4 3.4


Bush Gore voter turnout Share of Kerry Share of DNV
turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 55% 56% 57% 58% 59%
MoE 1.04% 0.94% 0.82% 0.68% 0.49% MoE 1.72% 1.72% 1.72% 1.71% 1.70%

Kerry Share (%) Kerry Share (%)
90% 53.8 54.1 54.3 54.6 54.9 12% 53.9 54.1 54.2 54.4 54.6
92% 53.4 53.7 54.0 54.3 54.6 11% 53.5 53.7 53.9 54.0 54.2
94% 53.1 53.3 53.6 53.9 54.2 10% 53.1 53.3 53.5 53.7 53.8
96% 52.7 53.0 53.3 53.6 53.8 9% 52.8 52.9 53.1 53.3 53.5
98% 52.3 52.6 52.9 53.2 53.5 8% 52.4 52.6 52.7 52.9 53.1

Kerry Margin (mil.) Kerry Margin (mil.)
90% 11.2 11.9 12.7 13.4 14.1 12% 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.2
92% 10.3 11.0 11.7 12.5 13.2 11% 10.5 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.3
94% 9.4 10.1 10.8 11.5 12.3 10% 9.5 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.3
96% 8.5 9.2 9.9 10.6 11.3 9% 8.6 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.4
98% 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.7 10.4 8% 7.6 8.1 8.5 9.0 9.4

Kerry Electoral Vote Kerry Electoral Vote
90% 390 390 390 398 398 12% 390 390 390 390 398
92% 379 390 390 390 398 11% 390 390 390 390 390
94% 351 379 390 390 390 10% 360 373 379 390 390
96% 351 351 370 390 390 9% 351 351 351 357 379
98% 346 351 351 351 379 8% 346 351 351 351 351



2004 Recorded Exit Poll True Vote Flipped to
Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin EV Bush
59.0 62.0 -3.0 252 65.3 59.2 6.1 338 67.3 56.8 10.4 379 12
48.3% 50.7% -2.5% 51.9% 47.1% 4.8% 53.5% 45.2% 1.3% 127 EV

AL 36.8 62.5 -25.6 41.8 57.5 -15.6 46.5 52.8 -6.3
AK 35.5 61.1 -25.5 40.2 56.4 -16.2 38.5 58.1 -19.5
AZ 44.4 54.9 -10.5 44.5 54.7 -10.2 51.3 47.9 3.4 10 10
AR 44.5 54.3 -9.8 45.2 53.7 -8.5 49.6 49.3 0.3 6 6
CA 54.3 44.4 9.9 55 60.1 38.6 21.5 55 58.9 39.8 19.1 55

CO 47.0 51.7 -4.7 50.1 48.6 1.4 9 52.4 46.3 6.1 9 9
CT 54.3 43.9 10.4 7 62.3 35.9 26.4 7 64.0 34.2 29.8 7
DE 53.3 45.8 7.6 3 61.3 37.8 23.5 3 59.2 39.9 19.2 3
DC 89.2 9.3 79.8 3 90.6 7.9 82.6 3 89.0 9.5 79.5 3
FL 47.1 52.1 -5.0 51.0 48.2 2.8 27 52.3 46.8 5.5 27 27

GA 41.4 58.0 -16.6 42.0 57.3 -15.3 48.0 51.3 -3.3
HI 54.0 45.3 8.7 4 58.1 41.2 16.9 4 64.9 34.4 30.5 4
ID 30.3 68.4 -38.1 32.3 66.4 -34.1 33.2 65.4 -32.2
IL 54.8 44.5 10.3 21 56.6 42.7 13.8 21 59.4 39.9 19.5 21
IN 39.3 59.9 -20.7 40.4 58.8 -18.5 46.8 52.4 -5.6

IA 49.2 49.9 -0.7 50.7 48.4 2.3 7 53.3 45.9 7.4 7 7
KS 36.6 62.0 -25.4 37.2 61.5 -24.3 42.4 56.2 -13.8
KY 39.7 59.6 -19.9 39.9 59.4 -19.5 45.8 53.4 -7.6
LA 42.2 56.7 -14.5 43.5 55.4 -11.9 49.7 49.3 0.4 9 9
ME 53.6 44.6 9.0 4 55.6 42.6 13.0 4 56.3 41.9 14.4 4

MD 55.9 42.9 13.0 10 59.6 39.3 20.3 10 60.9 38.0 22.9 10
MA 61.9 36.8 25.2 12 65.8 32.9 32.9 12 67.3 31.4 35.8 12
MI 51.2 47.8 3.4 17 54.4 44.6 9.8 17 55.1 43.9 11.2 17
MN 51.1 47.6 3.5 10 55.7 43.0 12.7 10 55.9 42.8 13.1 10
MS 39.8 59.4 -19.7 49.0 50.2 -1.2 47.4 51.8 -4.4

MO 46.1 53.3 -7.2 49.0 50.4 -1.4 52.4 47.0 5.4 11 11
MT 38.6 59.1 -20.5 37.3 60.4 -23.1 40.7 56.9 -16.2
NE 32.7 65.9 -33.2 37.0 61.5 -24.5 37.5 61.1 -23.7
NV 47.9 50.5 -2.6 52.8 45.5 7.3 5 52.4 45.9 6.5 5 5
NH 50.2 48.9 1.4 4 57.2 41.9 15.4 4 53.5 45.6 7.9 4

NJ 52.9 46.2 6.7 15 57.5 41.7 15.8 15 60.0 39.2 20.8 15
NM 49.0 49.8 -0.8 53.0 45.8 7.2 5 54.5 44.4 10.1 5 5
NY 58.4 40.1 18.3 31 64.5 34.0 30.5 31 64.0 34.4 29.6 31
NC 43.6 56.0 -12.4 49.5 50.1 -0.5 47.5 52.1 -4.6
ND 35.5 62.9 -27.4 34.6 63.7 -29.1 40.3 58.1 -17.8

OH 48.7 50.8 -2.1 54.0 45.5 8.5 20 52.3 47.2 5.1 20 20
OK 34.4 65.6 -31.1 33.8 66.2 -32.3 44.1 55.9 -11.8
OR 51.3 47.2 4.2 7 52.2 46.3 6.0 7 54.6 43.9 10.7 7
PA 50.9 48.4 2.5 21 55.1 44.2 10.9 21 55.3 44.1 11.2 21
RI 59.4 38.7 20.8 4 62.1 36.0 26.1 4 66.4 31.7 34.7 4

SC 40.9 58.0 -17.1 45.8 53.1 -7.4 48.4 50.5 -2.0
SD 38.4 59.9 -21.5 35.9 62.5 -26.6 41.4 57.0 -15.6
TN 42.5 56.8 -14.3 43.2 56.1 -13.0 49.7 49.7 0.0
TX 38.2 61.1 -22.9 42.0 57.3 -15.3 44.0 55.3 -11.4
UT 26.0 71.5 -45.5 28.1 69.4 -41.2 32.7 64.9 -32.2

VT 58.9 38.8 20.1 3 66.5 31.2 35.3 3 60.0 37.8 22.2 3
VA 45.5 53.7 -8.2 49.8 49.3 0.5 13 49.8 49.3 0.5 13 13
WA 52.8 45.6 7.2 11 56.8 41.6 15.2 11 55.9 42.5 13.4 11
WV 43.2 56.1 -12.9 40.2 59.0 -18.8 50.6 48.7 1.9 5 5
WI 49.7 49.3 0.4 10 52.1 46.9 5.2 10 53.5 45.6 7.9 10
WY 29.1 68.9 -39.8 32.6 65.4 -32.8 31.5 66.4 -34.9

[div align="left"style="width: 55em;font-family: Times New Roman,Arial;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.3"]
[div style="font-family: Arial,'Times New Roman';font-size: 24px;font-style: italic;font-weight:bold"]Footprints: 1988 - 2004 State Exit Poll Discrepancies[/quote]
[link:www.truthisall.net/|TruthIsAll]source: [link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ConfirmationofPollingElectionFraud.htm|http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ConfirmationofPollingElectionFraud.htm]

Feb. 18, 2010

An analysis of state exit poll discrepancies for the 1988-2004 elections yields an interesting pattern. The data is from Edison Media Research/ Mitofsky International: "[link:www.ap.org/media/pdf/EvaluationEdisonMitofsky.pdf|Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004]" (January 19, 2005).

E-M provided unadjusted exit poll data for 238 of 255 state presidential elections from 1988 to 2004. They define "Within Precinct Error (WPE)" as the difference between the unadjusted exit poll share margin and the recorded vote-count share margin. “Error” implies that the exit polls were wrong. But millions of votes are [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x510173|uncounted] in every election (nearly 11 million in 1988 and 4 million in 2004).Therefore, it is more accurate to refer toWithin Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). A positive WPD indicates that the vote shift favored the GOP; a negative WPD favored the Democrat.

For example, in NY 2004 the 12.2 WPD is the difference between Kerry’s exit poll share margin (30.5%) and recorded vote-count share margin (18.3%). Kerry’s unadjusted exit poll share (64.5%) was 6.1% higher than his recorded share, far exceeding the 2-3% exit poll margin of error (MoE). The WPD is double the share deviation.

[div align="center" style="float:left;font-family: Verdana,Arial,Times;font-size: 11px;line-height:1.2;width:65em"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 4.5em;"][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.5em;border-color: black;border-style: solid dotted none solid;border-width: 1 1 0 1"]MoE±2-3%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:17.25em;border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 16.25em;"]Unadjusted 2004 Exit Poll[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 9em"]Share[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.5em"](a)[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:4.5em"]Kerry[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.5em"]Bush[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.5em;"]Margin[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:17.25em;border-top:solid black 1px"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 16.25em;"]Recorded 2004 Vote-Count[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:9em;"]Share[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.5em"](b)[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:4.5em;"]Kerry[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.5em;"]Bush[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.5em;"]Margin[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 2.25em;"][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.25em;border: solid black;border-width: 1 1 0 0"]WPD(a - b)[br]Margin ?[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 4.5em"]
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.5em"]
NY[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.5em"]
64.5[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.5em"]
34.0[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.5em"]
30.5[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.7em"]
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.5em"]
58.4[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.5em"]
40.1[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.5em"]
18.3[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em"]
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.25em"]
12.2[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.1"][/quote]
[b]Of the 238 state elections — from exit poll to vote-count — 194 shifted to the vote for the Republican and 44 to the Democrat.
[div align="right" style="font-family:verdana;font-size: 12px;"]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 4.5em;text-align: left"][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;text-align: left"]Shift to
Dem
GOP
Total[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;"]2004
5
46
51[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;"]2000
14
32
46[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;"]1996
10
37
47[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;"]1992
4
44
48[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;"]1988
11
35
46[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;"]Total
44
194
238[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;"]Share
18.50%
[b style="color:bloodred"]81.50%
100%[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.1"][/quote]
One would expect an approximately equal shift. The fact that 82% vote shifted to the Republican over the five presidential elections was either due to errors in the exit polls or vote miscounts. It could not have been due to chance. But we have 238 exit polls, not just a few. Exit polls are known to be quite accurate — outside the USA.

Assuming a 3% MoE for each of the 238 state exit polls:
– In 15 Democratic states, the average WPD was 4.9. The MoE was exceeded in 25 elections, ALL for the Republican.
– In 15 Battleground states, the average WPD was 3.8. The MoE was also exceeded in 25 elections, ALL for the Republican.
– In 21 Republican states, the average WPD was 2.4. The MoE was exceeded in 16 elections, ALL but ONE for the Republican.

Were the discrepancies due to Republican voters reluctance to be polled in each of the five elections? Not likely.
Were they due to Democratic voters misstating how they voted to the exit pollsters and actually voting for the Republican in each of the five elections? Not likely.

Or were they due to the millions of mostly Democratic votes that were [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x510173|uncounted]? That is more than likely. It is a fact.
Or were they due to votes that were miscounted in favor of the Republican? That is quite likely.

We assume a conservative 3% unadjusted exit poll margin of error for each state election. Since the vote-share deviation is one-half the WPD, a 3% MoE is exceeded when the WPD is at least 6%. Given the 95% confidence level, approximately 12 of 238 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error (6 for the Democrats and 6 for the Republicans). But the MoE was exceeded in 66 elections — 65 in favor of the Republicans. The probability is ZERO that this was due to chance.

The probability that the MoE would be exceeded a given state is 1/20 (5%). It is 1/40 (2.5%) for the Democrat and 2.5% for the Republican.
The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in at least N of 238 state elections is given by the Excel BINOMDIST function:

[div style="clear:left;text-indent: 4.5em"]Prob =1- BINOMDIST (N-1, 238, 2.5%, TRUE)[/quote]
The following table lists the probability that the MoE would be exceeded in at least N of 238 state exit polls.
The function cuts off at N=34, a 1 in 200 trillion probability.
Imagine what it is for 65 states.

[div align="right" style="clear:left;float:left;font-size: 85%;line-height: 1.2;font-weight:bold;"][div style="float:left;width:4.5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 2em"]N
2
5
10
15
20
25
30
34
---
65[/quote][div style="float:left;width:6em;"]Probability
93.80%
54.80%
3.90%
0.04%
7.90E-07
4.80E-10
1.10E-13
5.00E-15

??????[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 12em;"]or 1 in
1
2
26
2,642
1,258,312
2,080,038,070
9,324,222,830,995
200,159,983,438,689


[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.1"][/quote]
Assuming a more realistic 2% exit poll MoE, it would be exceeded if the WPD were at least 4%. The 2% MoE was exceeded in 109 of 238 state elections: 100 in favor of the Republican, 9 in favor of the Democrats.

Let’s take a closer look at the 2004 election.
– The average Democratic state WPD was a whopping 8.9. The 3% MoE was exceeded in 11 of 15 states (73%) — all for Bush.
– The average Battleground state WPD was 6.9. The 3% MoE was exceeded in 10 of 15 states (67%) for Bush and none for Kerry.
– The average Republican state WPD was 3.8. The 3% MoE was exceeded in 7 of 21 states (33%) — all for Bush.

The 3% margin of error was exceeded in a total of 28 states — all in favor of Bush. The probability is 1 in 19 trillion that the MoE would be exceeded in 16 states. Imagine what the probability is for 28 states.

Assuming a 2% MoE, the probability is even lower, since the MoE was exceeded in 36 states: 34 in favor of Bush, 2 in favor of Kerry.

The distribution of the WPD in Democratic, GOP and Battleground states indicates that the GOP strategy was:
1) Pad Bush’s popular vote "mandate" by cutting Democratic margins in heavily populated BLUE states (NY, CA, CT, NJ, MD, MA, MI).
2) Steal the electoral votes in Battleground states (FL, OH, NM, CO, NV, MO, IA).
3) Pad the vote in RED states with large minority (Democratic) voting blocs (TX, MS, AL, TN, SC). Ignore the others (ND, SD, OK, MT, KY).

[div style="font-weight:bold;font-style:italic"]Unadjusted exit poll data has not been released for 2008. Is it because the data would confirm what the 1988-2004 exit polls indicate? In every election, the Democrats do much better than the official recorded vote indicates. As always, the Final 2008 National Exit Poll was [link:www.organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/Presidential-Election-2004.pdf#page=2|forced] to match the recorded vote-count. A True Vote Model (see below) indicates that Obama won by over 22 million votes.[/quote][/quote]
[div style="width:120em"][/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width:25em"][b]Historical WPD[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:62em;font-weight:bold;"][link:www.richardcharnin.com/WPDConfirmation.htm|Within Precinct Discrepancy]—Vote MarginΔ:State Exit PolltoVote-Count

Voting BoothtoExit Poll Interviewto([link:www.scoop.co.nz/stories/print.html?path=HL0604/S00233.htm|secret]) [link:www.organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/popupPK2.html|Counting] of [link:tinyurl.com/yk665xv|Candidate] & [link:tinyurl.com/yfhlz86|Proposition] [link:tinyurl.com/yjlw2vr|Votes]

[div align="center" style="width:55em;font-size: 12px;font-weight:normal;"][div align="right" style="clear:left;float:left;width:6em;font-size: 12px;font-weight:normal;"]positive
negative[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.2em"]#
(#)[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:38em"]==%, difference invote-sharemargins—in favor of the [link:tinyurl.com/y8565nh|GOP]
==%, difference invote-sharemargins—in favor of the DEM[/quote][/quote][/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width:18em;"]Combined 50 States+DC[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:7em"]3.82 avg[/quote][div style="float:left;width:42em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:42em"][/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width:25em;"]

WPD,averageΔ (%)

[div align="right" style="clear:left;float:left;width:25em"]# of STATESwithVote MarginSHIFTED[/quote]
[div align="right" style="clear:left;width::25em"]fromunadjusted Exit PolltoVote-Count
...in favor of theGOP
...in favor of theDEM[/quote]
[div align="right" style="clear:left;width:25em"]# of STATESwithWPD(%)EXCEEDING
Exit PollMargin of Error assuming±3%


Exit PollMargin of Error assuming±2%[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.8em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:10em;padding-left: 0em"][link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=512608&mesg_id=513763|2008]

XX.X?
[div style="clear:left;width:12em;margin-top: 0.15em;font-size: 9.5px;font-style: italic;line-height: 1.5;background-color:#337099;color:white;font-weight: bold;padding: 0px 0px"]Does the NEP MSM
Dare Release the
Exit Poll Report?
[/quote][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.6em"]2004

7.40



46
5


28


36[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]2000

2.01



32
14


4


15[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]1996

1.93



37
10


7


12[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]1992

5.40



44
4


20


31[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]1988

2.38



35
11


7


15[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:9.25em"]5-Election Avg

3.82


5-Election Tot[div align="right" style="width:2.5em"]194
44


66


109[/quote][/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:50em;border: solid red 0px"]





[div style="float:left;width:1.0em"]•[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.7em;color:#800000;font-weight:bold"]81.5[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:45em;border: solid blue 0px"]% of 238 vote-share margin shifts favored the GOPin election vote-counts[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.7em;color:black;"]18.5[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:45em"]% of 238 vote-share margin shifts favored the DEMin election vote-counts[/quote]


[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"]•[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.5em"]65[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]#[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:#800000;font-weight:bold"]98.5[/quote] [div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em;"]%)>±3%MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOPin the vote-count[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.5em"]1[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"](#)[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:black"]1.5[/quote] [div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±3%MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEMin the vote-count[/quote]

[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"]•[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.5em"]100[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]#[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:#800000;font-weight:bold"]91.7[/quote] [div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±2%MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOPin the vote-count[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.5em"]9[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"](#)[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:black;"]8.3[/quote] [div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±2%MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEMin the vote-count[/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"][/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width:18em;border-top: solid 1px black"]15 Democratic States[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:7em;border-top: solid 1px black"]4.9 avg[/quote][div style="float:left;width:42em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:49em;"][div style="float:left;width: 45em;border-top: solid 1px black"][/quote][/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width:25em;"]

WPD,averageΔ (%)

[div align="right" style="clear:left;width:25em"]# of STATESwithWPD(%)EXCEEDING
Exit PollMargin of Error assuming±3%


Exit PollMargin of Error assuming±2%[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:18em"][/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:7em;font-weight:normal"]CA*
CT*
DE*
DC
HI*

IL
ME
MD*
MA*
MI*

NJ*
NY*
RI
VT*
WA*[/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:10em;padding-left: 0.4em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"][link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x510173|2004]

8.9


*11


13

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]11.6
16.0
15.9
2.8
8.2

3.5
4.0
7.3
7.7
6.4

9.1
12.2
5.3
15.2
8.0[/quote][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]2000

3.0


2


4

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]3.8
0.9
7.1
na
na

6.4
2.1
4.3
4.3
2.2

0.4
3.3
0.4
(0.4)
3.7[/quote][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]1996

1.8


0


4

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]4.7
(4.2)
1.3
na
na

(1.2)
4.4
3.6
3.3
3.5

1.9
(2.1)
1.1
5.0
2.0[/quote][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]1992

7.3


9


13

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]8.5
8.3
7.3
na
na

6.1
5.1
8.1
7.1
4.9

11.2
4.6
9.0
8.6
5.5[/quote][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]1988

4.0


3


8

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]3.8
5.2
1.8
na
0.6

2.6
6.4
5.2
6.8
1.2

4.2
7.2
(0.2)
5.8
5.4[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:9.25em"]5-Election Avg

4.9

5-Election Tot[div align="center" style="width:4em;"]25


42[/quote]
6.5
5.2
6.7
2.8
4.4

3.5
4.4
5.7
5.8
3.6

5.4
5.0
3.1
6.8
4.9[/quote][/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:50em"]




[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"]•[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]25[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]#[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:#800000;font-weight:bold"]100.0[/quote] [div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±3%MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOPin the vote-count[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"](#)[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:black;"]0.0[/quote] [div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±3%MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEMin the vote-count[/quote]

[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"]•[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]41[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]#[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:#800000;font-weight:bold"]97.6[/quote] [div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±2%MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOPin the vote-count[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]1[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"](#)[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:black"]2.4[/quote] [div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±2%MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEMin the vote-count[/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"][/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width:18em;border-top: solid 1px black"]15 Battleground States[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:7em;border-top: solid 1px black"]3.8 avg[/quote][div style="float:left;width:42em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:49em;"][div style="float:left;width: 45em;border-top: solid 1px black"][/quote][/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width:25em;"]

WPD,averageΔ (%)

[div align="right" style="clear:left;width:25em"]# of STATESwithWPD(%)EXCEEDING
Exit PollMargin of Error assuming±3%


Exit PollMargin of Error assuming±2%[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:18em"][/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:7em;font-weight:normal"]CO*
FL*
IA
MN*
MO

NV*
NH*
NM*
NC*
OH*

OR
PA*
VA*
WV
WI[/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:10em;padding-left: 0.4em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]2004

6.9


*10


13

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]6.1
7.8
3.0
9.2
5.8

9.9
14.0
8.0
11.9
10.6

1.8
8.4
8.7
(5.9)
4.8[/quote][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]2000

0.8


2


5

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]5.6
0.6
(3.0)
(0.5)
(1.8)

6.0
2.4
(5.1)
9.8
1.0

na
0.8
2.0
(4.5)
(2.4)[/quote][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]1996

3.8


4


5

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]1.5
0.6
(0.3)
(1.7)
5.8

na
12.2
7.0
6.5
3.1

2.4
3.6
6.5
2.6
2.8[/quote][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]1992

5.2


6


9

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]7.2
5.5
2.0
6.4
8.6

(2.1)
10.1
6.3
4.2
4.4

13.6
2.0
3.5
3.2
2.5[/quote][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]1988

1.9


3


3

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]3.0
2.4
0.6
(1.2)
0.6

3.0
6.0
6.6
0.4
1.6

7.4
0.8
(0.6)
0.2
(2.2)[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:9.25em"]5-Election Avg

3.8

5-Election Tot[div align="center" style="width:4em;"]25


35[/quote]
4.7
3.4
0.5
2.4
3.8

4.2
8.9
4.6
6.6
4.1

6.3
3.1
4.0
(0.9)
1.1[/quote][/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:50em"]




[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"]•[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]25[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]#[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:#800000;font-weight:bold"]100.0[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±3%MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOPin the vote-count[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"](#)[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:black;"]0.0[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±3%MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEMin the vote-count[/quote]

[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"]•[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]32[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]#[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:#800000;font-weight:bold"]91.4[/quote] [div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±2%MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOPin the vote-count[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]3[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"](#)[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:black;"]8.6[/quote] [div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±2%MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEMin the vote-count[/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"][/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width:18em;border-top: solid 1px black"]21 Republican States[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:7em;border-top: solid 1px black"]2.4 avg[/quote][div style="float:left;width:42em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:49em;"][div style="float:left;width: 45em;border-top: solid 1px black"][/quote][/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width:25em;"]

WPD,averageΔ (%)

[div align="right" style="clear:left;width:25em"]# of STATESwithWPD(%)EXCEEDING
Exit PollMargin of Error assuming±3%


Exit PollMargin of Error assuming±2%[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:18em"][/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:7em;font-weight:normal"]AL*
AK*
AZ
AR
GA

ID
IN
KS
KY
LA

MS*
MT
NE*
ND
OK

SC*
SD
TN
TX*
UT
WY*[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:10em;padding-left: 0.4em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em;"]2004

3.8


*7


10

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]10.0
9.3
0.3
1.3
1.3

4.0
2.2
1.1
0.4
2.6

18.5
(2.6)
8.7
(1.7)
(1.2)

9.7
(5.1)
1.3
7.6
4.3
7.0[/quote][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]2000

0.8


0


6

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]5.5
na
na
3.2
5.6

(2.5)
3.6
4.4
(4.4)
0.6

3.2
(3.2)
4.1
(2.0)
(4.7)

3.5
0.9
(2.2)
0.4
(1.0)
1.0[/quote][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]1996

1.6


3


3

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]2.4
na
7.7
(1.5)
(3.3)

3.5
2.0
3.2
(1.0)
(6.5)

0.3
2.4
6.5
2.0
(2.0)

2.8
2.3
3.0
0.6
3.5
3.9[/quote][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]1992

3.4


5


9

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]1.2
na
6.6
7.8
6.5

0.5
6.8
3.4
3.9
(1.0)

5.1
(0.7)
2.8
4.2
4.7

2.0
(2.8)
6.8
2.8
2.2
5.9[/quote][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:4.4em"]1988

1.2


1


4

[div align="right" style="width:3em;;"]na
1.2
na
(0.8)
(1.8)

na
9.2
3.6
1.0
2.4

(0.2)
4.4
5.0
1.6
(5.6)

1.4
1.0
(1.0)
(0.8)
na
(1.0)[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:9.25em"]5-Election Avg

2.4

5-Election Tot[div align="center" style="width:4em;"]16


32[/quote]
4.8
5.3
4.9
2.0
1.7

1.4
4.8
3.1
(0.0)
(0.4)

5.4
0.1
5.4
0.8
(1.8)

3.9
(0.7)
1.6
2.1
2.3
3.4[/quote][/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:49em"]




[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"]•[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]15[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]#[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:#800000;font-weight:bold"]93.8[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±3%MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOPin the vote-count[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]1[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"](#)[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:black"]6.2[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±3%MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEMin the vote-count[/quote]

[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"]•[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]27[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]#[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:#800000;font-weight:bold"]84.4[/quote] [div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±2%MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOPin the vote-count[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:2.5em"]5[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:2.5em"](#)[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width:1.0em"]([/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:3.5em;color:black"]15.6[/quote] [div align="left" style="float:left;width:37em"]%)>±2%MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEMin the vote-count[/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[div style="font-family: Times New Roman,Verdana,Arial;font-size: 20px;font-style:normal;font-weight:bold"]2008 National Exit Poll
(Forced to match the recorded vote-count with an impossible mix of returning Bush, Kerry and 3rd-party voters)[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 85em"][div align="right" style="clear:left;float:left;font-family: Verdana,Arial,Times;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.3;width: 35.5em;border: solid black;border-width: 2 2 2 2"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 5.5em;"]


DNV
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total

[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]
Recorded
2004

48.30%
50.70%
1.00%



[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]
Cast
2004
-
59.03
62.04
1.23

122.3

[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]
Recorded
2004
-
59.03
62.04
1.23

122.3

[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]95%
Alive
2008
-
56.08
58.94
1.17

116.18

[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]97%
Recorded
Turnout
-
54.39
57.17
1.13

112.7

[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;float:left;width: 3em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 37em;font-family: Verdana,Arial,Times;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.3;border: solid black;border-width: 2 2 2 2"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 5.5em;"]
NEP[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]
NEP[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 17.5em;text-align: center"]2008
National Exit Poll Vote Share[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 7em;"]
Turnout %[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 5.5em;text-align:right"]Turnout
17.09
48.64
60.47
5.26

131.5

[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]Mix
13%
37%
46%
4%

Share
Vote
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]Obama
71
89
17
66

52.60%
69.17
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]McCain
27
9
82
26

45.60%
59.95
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]Other
2
2
1
8

1.80%
2.34
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 7em;"]Recorded
-
87
103
451
Margin
7.00%
9.23
[/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.1"][/quote]
[div style="font-family: Times New Roman,Verdana,Arial;font-size: 20px;font-style: normal;font-weight:bold"]2008 True Vote[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear:left;width: 100em;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.3;"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6em;;border: solid black;border-width: 2 0 0 2"][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;;border: solid black;border-width: 2 1 0 2"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 18em;;border: solid black;border-width: 2 2 0 0"]Vote (mil)[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 0 0"][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 2 1 0 2"]Pct[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 18em;border: solid black;border-width: 2 1 0 0"]Share %[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 24em;border: solid black;border-width: 2 2 0 0"]True Vote (mil)[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6em;;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 2"]MoE[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 1 1 2;"]2000[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0"]Cast[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0"]Recorded[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 2 1 0;"]Alive[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 0 0;"]Turnout[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 1 1 2"]Mix[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0"]Obama[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0"]McCain[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 1 1 0"]Other[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0;"]Obama[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0"]McCain[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0"]Other[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 2 1 0;"]Total[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6em;;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 2"]1.60%
1.10%
1.30%
1.60%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 1 2 2"]DNV
Kerry
Bush
Other




2004
Recorded
ExitP
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 0"]
67.1
57
1.6

125.7


Bush
50.7
47
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 0"]
59
62
1.2

122.3


Kerry
48.3
52
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 2 2 0"]
63.8
54.1
1.6

119.5


Other
1
1
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 0 0"][div align="right" style="width: 3em;"]16.4
61.9
52.5
1.5

132.3[/quote]

Recorded
Diff

[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 1 2 2"]12.4
46.8
39.7
1.1

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]True
419EV[/quote]
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 1 0"]365EV
-[/quote][div style="border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 0 0"][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 0"]71
89
17
66

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]57.9%
[/quote]
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 1 0"]52.9
5.1[/quote][div style="border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 0 0"][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 0"]27
10
82
12

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]40.7%[/quote]

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]45.6[/quote]-4.9
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 1 2 0"]2
1
1
22

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]1.4[/quote]

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]1.5[/quote]1.3
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 0"]11.7
55.1
8.9
1

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]76.7[/quote]

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]69.5[/quote]7.2
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 0"]4.4
6.2
43
0.2

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]53.8[/quote]

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]59.9[/quote]-6.1
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 0"]0.3
0.6
0.5
0.3

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]1.8[/quote]

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]2[/quote]-0.2
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 2 2 0"]16.4
61.9
52.5
1.5

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]132.3
Margin
17.2%[/quote][div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]131.4[/quote]0.9
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"][/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.1"][/quote]
[div align="center" style="font-family:Verdana, Times,Arial;font-size:18px;font-weight:normal"]
[div align="right" style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.2"][div style="width: 79em"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 4.5em;border: solid blue 0px"][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 2em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 17em;border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 1"]2008 Exit PollShares[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 2em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 17.25em;border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]2008 Recorded Vote-Count[br]Shares[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 3em;border: solid blue 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;border: solid blue 0px"]WPD[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 3.5em;border: solid blue 0px;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 17em;border: solid black;border-width: 1 1 0 0"]True Vote[br][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 2em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;"]Flipped[br]to McCain[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 4.5em;border: solid black 0px"][br][br]Share

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DE
DC
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 2em;border: solid blue 0px"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;border: solid blue 0px"]Obama






























































[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;border: solid blue 0px"]McCain






























































[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;font-family:Verdana, Times,Arial;font-size:11px;line-height: 1.2;width: 4.5em;border: solid blue 0px"]Margin[div align="right" style="width: 3.5em"]





























































[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 3.7em;border: solid blue 0px"]EV





























































[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 2em;border: solid blue 0px"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;border: solid blue 0px"]Obama
69.5
52.90%

38.7
37.9
44.9
38.9
61.0

53.7
60.6
61.9
92.5
50.9

46.9
71.8
36.0
61.9
49.9

53.9
41.6
41.1
39.9
57.7

61.9
61.8
57.4
54.1
43.0

49.3
47.2
41.6
55.1
54.1

57.2
56.9
62.8
49.7
44.5

51.4
34.4
56.7
54.5
63.1

44.9
44.7
41.8
43.6
34.3

67.5
52.6
57.4
42.6
56.2
32.5[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;border: solid blue 0px"]McCain
59.9
45.60%

60.3
59.4
53.4
58.7
36.9

44.7
38.2
36.9
6.5
48.1

52.1
26.6
61.3
36.8
48.9

44.4
56.5
57.4
58.6
40.4

36.5
36.0
40.9
43.8
56.2

49.4
49.4
56.5
42.7
44.5

41.6
41.8
36.1
49.4
53.1

46.8
65.6
40.4
44.2
35.2

53.9
53.2
56.9
55.4
62.3

30.5
46.3
40.3
55.7
42.3
64.8[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.2;border: solid blue 0px"]Margin[div align="right" style="width: 3.5em"]9.5
7.20%

-21.6
-21.5
-8.5
-19.9
24.0

9.0
22.4
25.0
85.9
2.8

-5.2
45.3
-25.3
25.1
1.0

9.5
-14.9
-16.2
-18.6
17.3

25.4
25.8
16.5
10.2
-13.2

-0.1
-2.3
-14.9
12.5
9.6

15.5
15.1
26.7
0.3
-8.6

4.5
-31.3
16.3
10.3
27.9

-9.0
-8.4
-15.1
-11.8
-28.1

37.0
6.3
17.1
-13.1
13.9
-32.2[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 3.5em;border: solid blue 0px"]EV
365






55

9
7
3
3
27


4

21
11

7



4

10
12
17
10




1
5
4

15
5
31
15


20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10
[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3em;"][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.0em;border: solid purple 0px"][b style="color:black"]






























































[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 3.5em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;border: solid blue 0px"]Obama
76.7
57.90%

44.7
44.5
50.9
47.0
60.9

55.8
62.9
61.3
89.9
55.8

50.8
63.6
38.9
61.1
49.6

54.6
43.0
45.1
46.2
58.9

62.6
65.0
57.4
55.8
47.9

52.1
46.5
40.7
56.3
56.3

59.2
57.0
64.2
53.7
42.6

54.4
39.8
55.6
56.3
64.9

50.2
45.6
49.9
46.4
33.6

65.5
55.7
58.6
46.2
55.3
35.2[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;border: solid blue 0px"]McCain
53.8
40.70%

54.4
52.8
47.4
50.6
37.0

42.6
35.9
37.6
9.1
43.2

48.2
34.9
58.4
37.6
49.2

43.7
55.1
53.4
52.3
39.1

35.8
32.7
40.9
42.1
51.3

46.5
50.1
57.5
41.6
42.4

39.6
41.7
34.7
45.4
54.9

43.8
60.2
41.5
42.3
33.4

48.6
52.3
48.8
52.6
63.1

32.4
43.2
39.1
52.1
43.2
62.1[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.2;border: solid blue 0px"]Margin[div align="right" style="width: 3.5em"]22.8
17.20%

-9.7
-8.3
3.5
-3.6
23.8

13.2
27.0
23.7
80.7
12.5

2.6
28.7
-19.5
23.5
0.5

10.9
-12.1
-8.4
-6.1
19.8

26.8
32.3
16.5
13.7
-3.3

5.6
-3.6
-16.8
14.7
13.9

19.6
15.3
29.5
8.4
-12.3

10.6
-20.4
14.1
14.0
31.5

1.6
-6.8
1.1
-6.2
-29.5

33.1
12.5
19.5
-5.9
12.2
-27.0[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 3.5em;border: solid blue 0px"]EV
419




10

55

9
7
3
3
27

15
4

21
11

7



4

10
12
17
10


11


5
4

15
5
31
15


20

7
21
4

8

11



3
13
11

10
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 2em;border: solid blue 0px"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;border: solid blue 0px"][div align="center"]5 sts
55 EV[/quote]



10









15

















11

















8

11








[/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[div style="font-family: Times New Roman,Verdana,Arial;font-size: 20px;font-style:normal;font-weight:bold"]2004 National Exit Poll
([link:tinyurl.com/4r5p22|Forced] to match the recorded vote with an [link:tinyurl.com/642yxd|impossible mix] of returning Bush and Gore voters)[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 85em"][div align="right" style="clear:left;float:left;font-family: Verdana,Arial,Times;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.3;width: 35.5em;border: solid black;border-width: 2 2 2 2"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 5.5em;"]


DNV
Gore
Bush
Other

Total




[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]
Recorded
2000
-
48.40%
47.90%
3.80%
Margin
100%
Vote

Recorded
Vote
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]
Cast
2000
-
51
50.46
3.96

105.42
59

Share
122.3
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]
Recorded
2000
-
51
50.46
3.96

105.42
62

48.30%
59
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]95%
Alive
2004
-
48.45
47.93
3.76

100.15
1.2

50.70%
62
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]98%
Recorded
Turnout
-
47.48
46.97
3.69

98.14
-3

1.00%
1.2
[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;float:left;width: 3em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 37em;font-family: Verdana,Arial,Times;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.3;border: solid black;border-width: 2 2 2 2"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 5.5em;"]
NEP[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]
NEP[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 17.5em;text-align: center"]2004
National Exit Poll Vote Share[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 7em;"]
Turnout %[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 5.5em;text-align:right"]Turnout
20.79
45.25
52.59
3.67

122.3


Recorded
Vote
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]Mix
17%
37%
43%
3%

Share
Vote

Share
122.3
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]Kerry
54
90
9
64

48.3%
59.0

48.3%
59.0
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]Bush
45
10
91
9

50.8%
62.0

50.7%
62.0
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5.5em;"]Other
1
0
0
27

1.0%
1.2

1.0%
1.2
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 7em;"]Recorded
-
93
110
98

-2.5%
-3
Margin
-2.5%
-3
[/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[div style="font-family: Times New Roman,Verdana,Arial;font-size: 20px;font-style: normal;font-weight:bold"]2004 True Vote[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.3;"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6em;;border: solid black;border-width: 2 0 0 2"][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;;border: solid black;border-width: 2 1 0 2"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 18em;;border: solid black;border-width: 2 2 0 0"]Vote (mil)[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 0 0"][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 2 1 0 2"]Pct[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 18em;border: solid black;border-width: 2 1 0 0"]Share %[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 24em;border: solid black;border-width: 2 2 0 0"]True Vote (mil)[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6em;;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 2"]MoE[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 1 1 2;"]2000[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0"]Cast[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0"]Recorded[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 2 1 0;"]Alive[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 0 0;"]Turnout[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 1 1 2"]Mix[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0"]Kerry[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0"]Bush[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 1 1 0"]Other[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0;"]Kerry[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0"]Bush[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 1 0"]Other[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 2 1 0;"]Total[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6em;;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 2"]1.70%
1.00%
1.00%
1.70%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 1 2 2"]DNV
Gore
Bush
Other




2000
Record
ExitP
Cast[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 0"]-
55.8
51.0
4.0

110.8


Bush
47.9
46.9
46.1[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 0"] -
51.0
50.5
4.0

105.4


Gore
48.4
49.4
50.3[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 2 2 0"] -
53.0
48.5
3.8

105.3


Other
3.8
3.8
3.6[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 0 0"][div align="right" style="width: 3em;"]22.6
51.9
47.5
3.7

125.7





[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 1 2 2"]17.9
41.3
37.8
3.0

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]True Vote
379 EV[/quote]
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]Recorded[/quote]Diff
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]Exit Poll[/quote]Diff[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 0"]57
91
10
64

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]53.5%[/quote]

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]48.3[/quote]5.2
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]51.9[/quote]1.6[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 0"]41
8
90
17

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]45.2%[/quote]

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]50.7[/quote]-5.5
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]47.1[/quote]-1.9[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 1 2 0"]2
1
0
19

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]1.3[/quote]

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]1.0[/quote]0.3
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]1.0[/quote]0.3[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-width: 0 0 2 0"]12.9
47.3
4.8
2.4

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]67.3[/quote]

[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]59.0[/quote]8.2
[div style="border: solid black;border-width: 1 0 0 0"]63.5[/quote]3.8[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 6em;border: solid black;border-

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