TruthIsAll
11-26-2008, 12:34 PM
2002 Redux: 2008 Georgia and Minnesota Senate Races
TruthIsAll
The current contested MN and GA senate races should be viewed in a historical context. In 2002, the current Republican incumbents won highly questionable elections - and so did the Republicans in TX and NH.
See: American Coup: Mid-Term Election Polls vs Actuals
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0211/S00078.htm
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x85732
Minnesota
Democrat Walter Mondale was leading 47-39% in the final polls. Mondale was chosen to replace Sen. Paul Wellstone who died two weeks before the election in an airplane crash. Republican Norm Coleman won by 50-47%, an 11-point switch.
But there was no recount. The 3% margin was too big. And Al Franken insisted that there was no such thing as Election Fraud. Right. This time, because the election was “close”, they are recounting the optical scanned ballots – those that have not been “lost”, that is.
Georgia
Democrat Max Cleland was leading 49-44% in the final polls; Republican Saxby Chambliss won by 53-46%, a 12 point switch. Diebold voting machine code was “patched” a few days before the election. Georgia was the first state to use touch screens exclusively. 2008. There is absolutely no way of verifying the paperless vote count. But no one questioned the election, because Chambliss won by 7%. Right. Even if they wanted to, there was nothing they could recount. The 2002 election was a precursor of what was to come in 2004, 2006.
Now, in 2008, there will be a runoff election. But how will the votes be counted? By the central tabulators. There is still no paper to count. HAVA guess who will win.
Texas
The Democrat was trailing by 48-49% in the final polls; the Republican won by 55-43%, an 11-point switch.
New Hampshire
The Democrat was leading by 46-40% in the final polls; the Republican won by 51-47%, a 10-point switch.
There is a 2.5% probability the margin of error would be exceeded in a given state for either candidate.
The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in at least 4 of 8 states is calculated by the binomial distribution:
=1- BINOMDIST (3,8, 0.025, TRUE) = 0.0025% or 1 in 39,645.
These are the probabilities that the MoE would be exceeded in at least N of 8 battleground states:
N 1 in
1 5
2 63
3 1,256
4 39,645
5 1,947,714
6 152,761,001
7 20,937,918,144
8 6,545,929,690,945
TruthIsAll
The current contested MN and GA senate races should be viewed in a historical context. In 2002, the current Republican incumbents won highly questionable elections - and so did the Republicans in TX and NH.
See: American Coup: Mid-Term Election Polls vs Actuals
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0211/S00078.htm
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x85732
Minnesota
Democrat Walter Mondale was leading 47-39% in the final polls. Mondale was chosen to replace Sen. Paul Wellstone who died two weeks before the election in an airplane crash. Republican Norm Coleman won by 50-47%, an 11-point switch.
But there was no recount. The 3% margin was too big. And Al Franken insisted that there was no such thing as Election Fraud. Right. This time, because the election was “close”, they are recounting the optical scanned ballots – those that have not been “lost”, that is.
Georgia
Democrat Max Cleland was leading 49-44% in the final polls; Republican Saxby Chambliss won by 53-46%, a 12 point switch. Diebold voting machine code was “patched” a few days before the election. Georgia was the first state to use touch screens exclusively. 2008. There is absolutely no way of verifying the paperless vote count. But no one questioned the election, because Chambliss won by 7%. Right. Even if they wanted to, there was nothing they could recount. The 2002 election was a precursor of what was to come in 2004, 2006.
Now, in 2008, there will be a runoff election. But how will the votes be counted? By the central tabulators. There is still no paper to count. HAVA guess who will win.
Texas
The Democrat was trailing by 48-49% in the final polls; the Republican won by 55-43%, an 11-point switch.
New Hampshire
The Democrat was leading by 46-40% in the final polls; the Republican won by 51-47%, a 10-point switch.
There is a 2.5% probability the margin of error would be exceeded in a given state for either candidate.
The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in at least 4 of 8 states is calculated by the binomial distribution:
=1- BINOMDIST (3,8, 0.025, TRUE) = 0.0025% or 1 in 39,645.
These are the probabilities that the MoE would be exceeded in at least N of 8 battleground states:
N 1 in
1 5
2 63
3 1,256
4 39,645
5 1,947,714
6 152,761,001
7 20,937,918,144
8 6,545,929,690,945