TruthIsAll
05-29-2008, 08:24 AM
2008 Election Model
A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
TruthIsAll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm
Updated: July 7
If a fraud-free election was held today, the Election Model projects Obama as the winner with 339 electoral votes and 53.8% of the two-party vote.
But past is prologue: it would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.
The Election Model has been updated to include two key fraud variable factors:
uncounted votes (net of votes padded) and switched votes.
Historical evidence shows that over 75% of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts.
These critical factors are never included in election forecasting models which permeate the media and the internet.
In fact, there is no mention of fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites.
But it’s understandable. No one wants to bite the hand that feeds them.
Why should any of these interested parties discuss fraud when Democratic politicians won’t?
Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always been off the table in Congress.
The base case projection (Obama 339 EV; 53.8% 2-party vote share) assumes zero fraud.
But if 4% of total votes cast are uncounted, Obama would have just 313 EV with 52.9% of the vote.
To reach 270 EV, McCain would need at least 4% of Obama’s votes switched to his column.
This could be done by rigging strategically selected touch screens, optical scanners, punched cards and central tabulators.
Is it just a coincidence that Karl Rove is advising McCain?
The Election Model calculates projected vote shares and the electoral vote over a range of 36 uncounted and switched vote scenarios.
The scenarios range from the True Vote (zero votes uncounted, zero switched) to Massive Fraud (5%, 5%).
For simplicity, the model assumes that the scenarios apply equally in each state-
an admittedly an unrealistic assumption which still provides a good approximation to the resulting EV and popular vote.
In 2004, Bush won by an official 3.0m vote margin (62-59m).
The official recorded vote was 122.3m.
According to the 2004 Census, 125.7m votes were cast.
Therefore, approximately 3.4m votes (2.74%) were uncounted.
Historical evidence shows that the vast majority (75%) of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts.
Including uncounted votes, the Bush margin is reduced to 1.4m (62.9-61.5m).
The companion post-election Election Calculator Model (see below) determined that Kerry won by 66.9-57.1m.
After adjusting for uncounted votes, the model determined that 5.4m (8.0%) Kerry votes must have been switched to Bush.
Note that in Florida, Ohio and several other states, total votes recorded exceeded votes cast (vote padding exceeded vote suppression).
Most states experienced greater vote suppression than vote padding;
the net difference was the number of uncounted votes.
These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
Electoral vote:
339 – 199 (Monte Carlo simulation- average of 5000 election trials)
Popular vote share projection (2-party)
53.8% State model (aggregate average)
53.0% National model (5-poll average)
Win probability
State
99.98% - electoral vote (Monte Carlo simulation)
99.99% - popular vote (2% MoE)
99.32% - popular vote (3% MoE)
National
99.81% - popular vote (2% MoE)
Latest polling average
Model Obama McCain
State 47.6 42.1
National 48.4 44.0
Data source: electoral-vote.com and realclearpolitics.com
State polls
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
National polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Undecided voter allocation (UVA) sensitivity analysis
UVA scenarios: 50, 55, 60, 65, 70% to Obama
Worst case (50%)
52.8%, 314 EV, 99.6% EV win probability
Best case (70%)
54.8%, 370 EV, 100% EV win probability
In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.
McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 25% approval.
But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.
A massive new voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.
Approximately 3-4 million Obama votes will be uncounted.
Vote counts on DREs and central tabulators will be unverifiable.
_____________________________________________________________________
A Simple Precinct/PC/Spreadsheet Solution to Eliminate Election Fraud
Vote counts on touch screens are lost in cyberspace.
States using mechanical levers (NY, CT, etc.) had the highest error rates:
gears can be shaved and the votes cannot be verified.
Optical scanners (FL, PA, NH, etc.) have a paper trail, but they are never fully inspected for recounts.
The chain of custody is often broken (see the NH primary).
And if all else fails, the central tabulators finish the job as necessary.
A simple solution would be for each precinct to install just ONE PC and spreadsheet software.
Voters would fill out a paper ballot uniquely coded by precinct/voter ID.
A copy is made available to the voter.
The ballot is entered into the spreadsheet and cross-checked by three volunteers(Dem, Rep, Ind).
The precinct spreadsheet file is uploaded to the internet for public access.
Precinct files are consolidated for district, county and state totals.
The files would enable each voter to confirm his vote online by entering his unique voter ID code.
A spreadsheet user could download all the state precinct files to check the totals.
The networks would no longer be the source of incoming, fraudulent votes.
Exit polls would match the online totals to within 1%.
The solution is inexpensive, accurate and would serve the public interest.
That is why it will never be implemented.
There is no money in it.
The voting machine manufacturers and corrupt election officials would fight it all the way.
And of course, Congress would never do a cost/benefit analysis.
________________________________________________________________
On Election Day 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating.
The Final 2004 Election Model projected that Kerry would win 337-201 EV with 51.8%.
Preliminary State and National exit polls also indicated that Kerry won.
But Bush was the official winner by 50.7- 48.3% with 286 EV.
And so the Final National Exit poll was forced to match the fraudulent recorded vote.
The final state and national polls/projections are shown below.
Calculation of Win Probabilities
Electoral Vote - based on a 5000 election trial Monte Carlo simulation:
The EV win probability is the number of winning election trials/5000.
The expected electoral vote is the average of the 5000 election trials.
Popular Vote I - based on the State aggregate vote share projection:
The win probability is calculated using the Excel normal distribution function.
It is calculated for both a 2% and 3% margin of error (MoE).
If Obama’s projected vote share =V, his popular vote win probability is calculated by
the Excel formula: = NORMDIST (V, .50, .02/1.96, true) assuming a 2% MoE.
Popular Vote II - based on the average vote share projection using the latest 5 National polls:
The win probability is calculated using the Excel normal distribution function.
The Excel formula: = NORMDIST (V, .50, .02/1.96, true).
Obama’s win probability in each state is also calculated by the normal distribution.
The probabilities are based on 4% margin of error and the projected state vote share.
For example, assume that Obama is tied with McCain in the latest polls at 45%.
With 60% of the undecided vote, he is projected to win the 2-party vote by 51-49%.
His probability of winning is 69%: =NORMDIST (.51, .50, .04/1.96, TRUE)
The 2008 Election Calculator
This model projects that Obama will win the True Vote by 71-59m (54 - 45%).
The True Vote is calculated based on applying vote shares to returning 2004 and new voters:
2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes, 2004 voter turnout in 2008.
In projecting uncounted votes and voter turnout based on actual historical data, the model
considers several components of fraud which are never addressed by political forecasters
in academia, the media or on so-called liberal democratic websites.
2008 True Vote Election Calculator Forecast
Estimated vote share (see National Exit Poll)
2004 Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%
Total 113.7 130.9 100% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
130.9 70.8 58.5 1.6
2004 Election Model Review
The model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national models.
Both projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The Monte Carlo simulation gave Kerry an expected 337 electoral votes in the base case.
The final national 5-poll projection average was 51.8%.
The final national 18-poll projection average was 51.6%.
In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.
The Election Model projections were based on state and national Pre-election polls.
Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.
Kerry’s aggregate projected vote share (51.0%) was within 0.8% of his unadjusted exit poll share (51.8%).
The 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51 – 48%.
Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.
The state Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average deviation between the unadjusted exit poll and the vote.
It is more appropriately called Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll with 52.0%, the average of three WPD measures.
The average WPD exceeded 4.0 in 34 states for Bush and just 2 states for Kerry.
The WPD was under 2.0 in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK, TN).
It was under 2.0 in just one Democratic state: OR is the only state which votes exclusively by paper ballot.
The 1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by 48 - 51%.
All FINAL National Exit Polls are 'forced' to match the Recorded Vote.
The 'forcing' of the 2004 Exit Poll numbers resulted in IMPOSSIBLE demographics.
Either the state and national Pre-election and Exit Polls were wrong or the Recorded Vote was fraudulent.
The Election Calculator Model used 12:22am NEP vote shares applied to returning and new voters.
It determined that Kerry won a 67-57 million landslide, 53.2 - 45.4%.
2000 2004 Calculated True Vote
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.6 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.7 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.6 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.8 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100.0% 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
Votes Cast 125.7 66.9 57.1 1.7
Recorded Vote 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Unadjusted Exit Poll 51.9% 47.1% 1.0%
Deviation from True Vote -1.3% +1.7% -0.4%
Election Forecasting Methodology
Two basic methods are used to forecast presidential elections:
1) Vote share projections based on the latest state and national polls
In the Election Model, state and national projections are based on the latest polls.
Both state and national models allocate undecided voters to project the two-party vote.
The state model uses Monte Carlo simulation to determine the expected electoral vote.
The Election Model assumes the election is held on the latest poll date.
2) Projections based on historical time-series data (regression models).
These models forecast vote-share only and are usually executed months in advance of the election.
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Overview
The objective is to calculate the expected electoral vote and win probability.
The win probability for each state is calculated based on the current projection.
For each of 5000 election trials, the winner of a state is determined as follows:
Obama’s state win probability is compared to a random number (RND) between zero and one.
If the probability is less than RND, Obama wins the state EV, else McCain.
The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes.
The EV win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000.
2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls
The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs – and the unadjusted exit polls.
__________________________________________________________________
Confirmation of the State and National Pre-election Polls and Projections
The final pre-election state polls matched the pre-election national polls.
Kerry led the final pre-election state poll weighted average by 47.7- 47.0%.
He also led the final national 18-poll average by 47.3 - 46.9%.
The Election Model weighted average state projection closely matched the national.
Kerry won the state projection with 51.8% of the 2-party vote and 337 electoral votes.
He also won the national projection with 51.6% of the 2-party vote.
Undecided Voter Allocation
Professional pollsters allocate undecided voters in every election.
The majority are allocated to the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular.
Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day.
There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush monthly approval and his poll numbers.
The Gallup Poll allocated 90% of undecided voters to Kerry.
Harris and Zogby projected that he would get 67-80% of undecided voters.
The Final Election Model base case scenario assumed Kerry would capture 75% of undecided voters.
2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls
The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs – and the unadjusted exit polls.
The final pre-election state polls matched the pre-election national polls.
Kerry led the final pre-election state poll weighted average by 47.7- 47.0%.
He also led the 18 final national polls by 47.3 - 46.9%.
The final weighted average state model projection exactly matched the final 5-poll national average.
Kerry led the state model with 51.8% of the 2-party vote and 337 electoral votes.
He led the national model final 5-poll average from 11/1 with an identical 51.8% share.
He led the final 18-poll national projection from 10/20 with 51.6%.
2004 Pre-election and Exit Poll Confirmation
A few naysayers maintain that polling analysis cannot prove the 2004 election was stolen.
But after undecided voters were allocated, the pre-election polls matched the unadjusted exit polls.
Final pre-election polls showed Kerry and Bush in a virtual tie.
The unweighted state average favored Bush, but Kerry led the aggregate weighted average.
Election Model projections closely matched the exit polls:
The 12:22am National Exit Poll (Gender demographic) indicated that Kerry had 51.3% (two-party).
The Voted 2000 characteristic gave Kerry 51.9%.
Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.
It indicated that Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit polls by 51.8 - 47.2%.
The Election Model utilized 18 final national polls, 9 RV and 9 LV.
After allocating 75% of undecided voters to Kerry, he led by 50.9 - 48.1%
Based on the 122.3m recorded vote, he won by 62.3 - 58.8m.
But this does not include 3.4m uncounted votes (2.74% of total votes cast).
Assuming that Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes, add 2.5m to his total and 0.8m to Bush.
Kerry's margin becomes 64.8- 59.6m (51.6 - 47.4%).
That's within 0.2% of his 51.8% unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share.
The pre-election aggregate state polls closely matched the national poll average.
The State model projected that Kerry would win by 51.0 - 48.0% (51.8% of the 2-party vote).
The National model projected that he would win by 50.9 - 48.1% (51.6% of the 2-party vote).
The Monte Carlo simulation calculated he would win by 337- 201 electoral votes.
The unadjusted aggregate state exit poll indicated that Kerry won by 51.8 - 47.2%.
His unadjusted exit poll share exceeded the recorded vote by at least 2.5% in 26 states.
Kerry’s final projected vote share was
- greater than his recorded vote share in 47 states
- lower than his unadjusted exit poll share in 45 states
- within 2.0% of the unadjusted exit poll in 21 states and within 1% in 12 states
- at least 2% higher than his recorded vote share in 33 states
The WPE exceeded 6.0 in 25 states.
The probability of this occurrence is effectively ZERO.
The Impossible Final National Exit Poll
The 12:22am National Exit Poll (Voted 2000) indicated that Kerry won by 51.9% (2-party).
Respondents were randomly selected and the margin of error was 1.1%.
Naysayers claim the Final NEP was correct and the unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
But the Final was forced to match the recorded vote.
It used impossible weightings.
Simple MATH proves the Final NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6m.
The Final indicates that Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% (52.6m) of the 2004 electorate (122.3m).
But Bush only had 50.5m recorded votes in 2000.
Voter mortality tables show that approximately 2m Bush 2000 voters died prior to 2004.
And about 2.5m Bush 2000 voters did not vote in 2004, assuming that 95% of 48.5m voted.
Therefore, only 46.0m Bush 2000 voters could have returned to vote in 2004.
But according to the Final NEP, 52.6m returned to vote – a mathematical impossibility.
Bush needed 16 million new voters to achieve his 62m recorded vote.
According to the Election Calculator, he had 57m, an 11m increase.
Where did Bush find 16 million new voters?
Kerry won the final 5m recorded votes by 54.3 - 45.7%.
These were late votes recorded a few days after the election.
They consisted primarily of absentee and provisional ballots.
Bush won the 2004 recorded vote by 62.0 - 59.0m (50.7- 48.3%) and had 286 EV.
Of 3.4 million uncounted votes, approximately 2.6m were for Kerry - a net 1.8m margin.
Bush’s 3.0m margin is thus reduced to 1.2m – and that’s before vote-switching.
The 12:22am National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51.4 - 47.6%.
The NEP margin of error was 1.12%, assuming a 30% exit poll cluster effect.
A few still claim that polling analysis cannot prove that the 2004 election was stolen.
They claim the Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was correct and the unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
But a careful analysis of the pre-election and exit polls provides powerful evidence that it was.
The Final was forced to match the recorded vote using impossible weightings.
After undecided voters were allocated, the pre-election polls matched the unadjusted exit polls.
To believe that Bush won, one must believe that the pre-election and unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
And also believe that the Final Exit Poll, although mathematically impossible, was accurate.
The Election Calculator Model
This calculation is a close approximation to the number of new 2004 voters:
In 2000, 110.8m votes cast but only 105.4m were recorded (5.4m were uncounted).
Assuming that he had 4m uncounted votes (75% of the total), Gore had nearly 55.0m votes,
Approximately 5m voters in 2000 died prior to 2004 and another 5m did not vote, assuming a 95% turnout.
In 2004, 125.7m total votes were cast but only 122.3m recorded (3.4m were uncounted).
Therefore, there were approximately 25m new voters in 2004.
According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Kerry won:
a) 14.3m (57%) new voters; Bush won 10.3m (41%),
b) 2.4m (64%) returning Nader and other voters; Bush had 0.6m (17%),
c) 5.1m (10%) returning Bush voters; Bush won 4.1m (8%) of returning Gore voters.
Kerry won the True Vote by 67-57m (53.2 - 45.4%). The calculation is:
TV = 66.7m = 55m (Gore) - 6m (died + DNV) + 14.3m (new) + 2.4m (Other) + 5.1m (Bush) - 4.1m (Gore)
Kerry won the 2004 True Vote in a 67-57m landslide (53.2 - 45.4%).
2000 voter turnout in 2004 was total votes cast in 2000 less mortality times the turnout percentage.
In 2000, the Census reported that 110.8m votes cast, but only 105.4m were recorded.
In 2004, the Census reported that 125.7m votes cast, but only 122.3m were recorded.
The Calculator determines the True Vote based on the estimated shares of returning voters.
The 12:22am National Exit Poll “How Voted” category is a reasonable best case estimate.
Kerry won 57% of new voters and others who did not vote in 2000.
He won 91% of returning Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters.
He captured 64% of returning Nader voters. Bush had 17%.
Summary of 2004 pre-election polls, exit polls and the True Vote
Kerry Bush
Recorded 48.3 50.7
Pre-election Polls
State aggregate
Unweighted 45.6 48.3
Weighted 47.7 47
National Polls
Kerry Bush
Final 5 47.2 46.4
Final 18 47.3 46.9
131 LV 45.6 48.1 (7/6-11/01)
31 RV 45.0 45.0 (7/6-9/26)
Final 15LV 47.0 49.0
Election Model
(2-party projection)
State 51.8 48.2
Nat.5 51.8 48.2
Nat.18 51.6 48.4
State Exit Polls
(Edison-Mitofsky)
Unadjusted Kerry Bush
(WPE method)
VNS 51.8 47.2 4 outlier precincts removed
Model 51.9 47.1 all precincts included
IM 52.15 46.85 4 outlier precincts removed
Adjusted
Best GEO 51.0 48.5
Composite 50.3 49.1 1240am
National Exit Poll
Voted 2000 Kerry Bush
4pm 51.0 47.0 (8649 respondents, 38 / 41 Gore/Bush weights
730pm 50.9 47.1 (11027, 39 / 42)
12:22am 51.4 47.6 (13047, 39 / 41)
12:22am 50.8 48.2 (Gender)
Final 48.5 51.1 (13660, 37/43, forced to match vote count
Election Calculator(adjusted for 5m voter mortality, 3.4m uncounted votes, 95% 2000 voter turnout in 2004)
53.2 45.4 (39.5 / 37.1, 125.7 toal votes cast)
2004 Election Model: Pre-election State Polls, Projections and Exit Polls
Final Vote Final Poll Projected Exit poll Proj Exit Poll Kerry Kerry Proj-EP < Proj-vote > WPE>
State EV Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Kerry Diff Diff WPE Proj EV EP EV 2.0 2.0 6.0
Average 538 48.3 50.7 47.7 47.0 51.0 51.8 3.6 0.8 7.1 331 325 21 33 25
AL 9 36.8 62.5 39 57 41.3 42.5 5.7 1.2 11.3 yes yes yes AL
AK 3 35.5 61.1 30 57 39.0 40.3 4.8 1.3 9.6 yes yes yes AK
AZ 10 44.4 54.9 45 50 48.0 46.7 2.3 (1.3) 4.6 yes yes AZ
AR 6 44.5 54.3 46 48 49.8 44.8 0.3 (5.0) 0.5 6 yes AR
CA 55 54.3 44.4 49 42 55.0 59.8 5.5 4.8 10.9 55 55 yes CA
CO 9 47.0 51.7 47 48 50.0 50.1 3.1 0.1 6.1 9 9 yes yes yes CO
CT 7 54.3 43.9 52 42 55.8 62.2 7.9 6.4 15.7 7 7 yes CT
DC 3 89.2 9.3 78 11 85.5 90.9 1.7 5.4 3.4 3 3 DC
DE 3 53.3 45.8 45 38 57.0 61.3 8.0 4.3 15.9 3 3 yes yes DE
FL 27 47.1 52.1 50 47 51.5 50.9 3.8 (0.6) 7.6 27 27 yes yes yes FL
GA 15 41.4 58.0 42 52 45.8 42.5 1.1 (3.3) 2.2 yes GA
HI 4 54.0 45.3 45 45 51.8 56.4 2.4 4.6 4.7 4 4 HI
ID 4 30.3 68.4 30 59 37.5 30.8 0.5 (6.7) 1.0 yes ID
IL 21 54.8 44.5 54 42 56.3 57.0 2.2 0.8 4.4 21 21 yes IL
IN 11 39.3 59.9 39 58 40.5 40.0 0.8 (0.5) 1.5 yes IN
IA 7 49.2 49.9 50 44 53.8 50.7 1.5 (3.0) 3.0 7 7 yes IA
KS 6 36.6 62.0 37 60 38.5 37.5 0.9 (1.0) 1.7 yes KS
KY 8 39.7 59.6 39 56 42.0 39.6 (0.0) (2.4) (0.1) yes KY
LA 9 42.2 56.7 40 48 48.3 44.1 1.9 (4.1) 3.8 yes LA
ME 4 53.6 44.6 50 39 57.5 55.5 1.9 (2.0) 3.8 4 4 yes ME
MD 10 55.9 42.9 54 43 55.5 60.0 4.1 4.5 8.1 10 10 yes MD
MA 12 61.9 36.8 64 27 70.0 64.8 2.9 (5.2) 5.8 12 12 yes MA
MI 17 51.2 47.8 52 45 53.5 54.4 3.2 0.9 6.3 17 17 yes yes yes MI
MN 10 51.1 47.6 52 44 54.3 55.7 4.7 1.5 9.3 10 10 yes yes yes MN
MS 6 40.2 59.0 42 51 46.5 45.8 5.7 (0.7) 11.3 yes yes yes MS
MO 11 46.1 53.3 44 49 48.5 49.0 2.9 0.5 5.8 yes yes MO
MT 3 38.6 59.1 36 57 40.5 37.7 (0.9) (2.8) (1.8) MT
NE 5 32.7 65.9 32 61 36.5 36.7 4.1 0.2 8.1 yes yes yes NE
NV 5 47.9 50.5 49 49 49.8 52.9 5.1 3.2 10.1 5 5 yes NV
NH 4 50.2 48.9 47 47 50.8 57.0 6.8 6.3 13.6 4 4 yes NH
NJ 15 52.9 46.2 50 42 55.3 57.8 4.9 2.5 9.7 15 15 yes yes NJ
NM 5 49.0 49.8 49 49 49.8 52.9 3.9 3.2 7.8 5 5 yes NM
NY 31 58.4 40.1 57 39 59.3 64.1 5.7 4.8 11.4 31 31 yes NY
NC 15 43.6 56.0 47 50 48.5 49.2 5.7 0.7 11.3 yes yes yes NC
ND 3 35.5 62.9 35 55 41.8 32.9 (2.6) (8.9) (5.2) yes ND
OH 20 48.7 50.8 50 47 51.5 54.2 5.5 2.7 10.9 20 20 yes yes OH
OK 7 34.4 65.6 28 61 35.5 33.5 (1.0) (2.0) (1.9) OK
OR 7 51.3 47.2 50 44 53.8 53.0 1.7 (0.8) 1.8 7 7 yes yes OR
PA 21 50.9 48.4 50 45 53.0 55.3 4.4 2.3 8.8 21 21 yes yes PA
RI 4 59.4 38.7 56 36 61.3 61.8 2.4 0.5 4.7 4 4 yes RI
SC 8 40.9 58.0 42 55 43.5 45.9 5.0 2.4 10.0 yes yes SC
SD 3 38.4 59.9 42 52 45.8 36.3 (2.1) (9.4) (4.2) yes SD
TN 11 42.5 56.8 47 50 48.5 42.8 0.3 (5.7) 0.5 yes TN
TX 34 38.2 61.1 37 59 39.3 40.6 2.4 1.4 4.8 yes TX
UT 5 26.0 71.5 24 69 28.5 29.2 3.2 0.7 6.4 yes yes yes UT
VT 3 58.9 38.8 53 40 57.5 66.4 7.5 8.9 15.0 3 3 yes VT
VA 13 45.5 53.7 47 51 47.8 49.4 4.0 1.7 7.9 yes yes yes VA
WA 11 52.8 45.6 52 44 54.3 57.0 4.2 2.8 8.4 11 11 yes WA
WV 5 43.2 56.1 45 49 48.8 40.3 (2.9) (8.5) (5.8) yes WV
WI 10 49.7 49.3 51 44 54.0 52.0 2.4 (2.0) 4.7 10 10 yes yes WI
WY 3 29.1 68.9 29 65 32.8 31.2 2.2 (1.5) 4.3 yes yes WY
Election Model -18 National Polls (9RV, 9LV)
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
Sample Final Poll 2-party proj 75% UVA Proj 5-Poll MovAv
Date Size Poll Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Diff
1720 Type 47.28 46.89 51.65 48.35 3.31 50.90 48.10 51.25 47.75 3.50
Zogby 2-Nov 1200 LV 47 48 50.75 49.25 1.50 50.00 49.00 51.25 47.75 3.50
Harris 2-Nov 5508 LV 50 47 52.25 47.75 4.50 51.50 47.50 51.35 47.65 3.70
CBS 1-Nov 1125 RV 46 47 51.25 48.75 2.50 50.50 48.50 51.25 47.75 3.50
TIPP 1-Nov 1284 LV 44 45 52.25 47.75 4.50 51.50 47.50 51.15 47.85 3.30
Econ 1-Nov 2903 RV 49 45 53.50 46.50 7.00 52.75 46.25 51.20 47.80 3.40
Marist 1-Nov 1166 LV 49 48 51.25 48.75 2.50 50.50 48.50 50.85 48.15 2.70
ABC 31-Oct 3511 RV 48 47 51.75 48.25 3.50 51.00 48.00 51.25 47.75 3.50
NBC 31-Oct 1014 LV 47 48 50.75 49.25 1.50 50.00 49.00 51.45 47.55 3.90
Gallup 31-Oct 1866 RV 48 46 52.50 47.50 5.00 51.75 47.25 51.55 47.45 4.10
DemCo 31-Oct 1018 LV 48 47 51.75 48.25 3.50 51.00 48.00 51.10 47.90 3.20
FOX 31-Oct 1400 RV 48 45 53.25 46.75 6.50 52.50 46.50 51.05 47.95 3.10
Pew 30-Oct 2408 RV 46 45 52.75 47.25 5.50 52.00 47.00 50.75 48.25 2.50
ARG 30-Oct 1258 LV 49 48 51.25 48.75 2.50 50.50 48.50 49.85 49.15 0.70
Nwk 29-Oct 1005 RV 45 48 50.25 49.75 0.50 49.50 49.50 50.15 48.85 1.30
ICR 26-Oct 817 RV 44 46 51.50 48.50 3.00 50.75 48.25 na na na
LAT 24-Oct 1698 RV 48 47 51.75 48.25 3.50 51.00 48.00 na na na
Time 21-Oct 803 LV 46 51 48.25 51.75 (3.50) 47.50 51.50 na na na
AP 20-Oct 976 LV 49 46 52.75 47.25 5.50 52.00 47.00 na na na
A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
TruthIsAll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm
Updated: July 7
If a fraud-free election was held today, the Election Model projects Obama as the winner with 339 electoral votes and 53.8% of the two-party vote.
But past is prologue: it would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.
The Election Model has been updated to include two key fraud variable factors:
uncounted votes (net of votes padded) and switched votes.
Historical evidence shows that over 75% of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts.
These critical factors are never included in election forecasting models which permeate the media and the internet.
In fact, there is no mention of fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites.
But it’s understandable. No one wants to bite the hand that feeds them.
Why should any of these interested parties discuss fraud when Democratic politicians won’t?
Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always been off the table in Congress.
The base case projection (Obama 339 EV; 53.8% 2-party vote share) assumes zero fraud.
But if 4% of total votes cast are uncounted, Obama would have just 313 EV with 52.9% of the vote.
To reach 270 EV, McCain would need at least 4% of Obama’s votes switched to his column.
This could be done by rigging strategically selected touch screens, optical scanners, punched cards and central tabulators.
Is it just a coincidence that Karl Rove is advising McCain?
The Election Model calculates projected vote shares and the electoral vote over a range of 36 uncounted and switched vote scenarios.
The scenarios range from the True Vote (zero votes uncounted, zero switched) to Massive Fraud (5%, 5%).
For simplicity, the model assumes that the scenarios apply equally in each state-
an admittedly an unrealistic assumption which still provides a good approximation to the resulting EV and popular vote.
In 2004, Bush won by an official 3.0m vote margin (62-59m).
The official recorded vote was 122.3m.
According to the 2004 Census, 125.7m votes were cast.
Therefore, approximately 3.4m votes (2.74%) were uncounted.
Historical evidence shows that the vast majority (75%) of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts.
Including uncounted votes, the Bush margin is reduced to 1.4m (62.9-61.5m).
The companion post-election Election Calculator Model (see below) determined that Kerry won by 66.9-57.1m.
After adjusting for uncounted votes, the model determined that 5.4m (8.0%) Kerry votes must have been switched to Bush.
Note that in Florida, Ohio and several other states, total votes recorded exceeded votes cast (vote padding exceeded vote suppression).
Most states experienced greater vote suppression than vote padding;
the net difference was the number of uncounted votes.
These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
Electoral vote:
339 – 199 (Monte Carlo simulation- average of 5000 election trials)
Popular vote share projection (2-party)
53.8% State model (aggregate average)
53.0% National model (5-poll average)
Win probability
State
99.98% - electoral vote (Monte Carlo simulation)
99.99% - popular vote (2% MoE)
99.32% - popular vote (3% MoE)
National
99.81% - popular vote (2% MoE)
Latest polling average
Model Obama McCain
State 47.6 42.1
National 48.4 44.0
Data source: electoral-vote.com and realclearpolitics.com
State polls
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
National polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Undecided voter allocation (UVA) sensitivity analysis
UVA scenarios: 50, 55, 60, 65, 70% to Obama
Worst case (50%)
52.8%, 314 EV, 99.6% EV win probability
Best case (70%)
54.8%, 370 EV, 100% EV win probability
In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.
McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 25% approval.
But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.
A massive new voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.
Approximately 3-4 million Obama votes will be uncounted.
Vote counts on DREs and central tabulators will be unverifiable.
_____________________________________________________________________
A Simple Precinct/PC/Spreadsheet Solution to Eliminate Election Fraud
Vote counts on touch screens are lost in cyberspace.
States using mechanical levers (NY, CT, etc.) had the highest error rates:
gears can be shaved and the votes cannot be verified.
Optical scanners (FL, PA, NH, etc.) have a paper trail, but they are never fully inspected for recounts.
The chain of custody is often broken (see the NH primary).
And if all else fails, the central tabulators finish the job as necessary.
A simple solution would be for each precinct to install just ONE PC and spreadsheet software.
Voters would fill out a paper ballot uniquely coded by precinct/voter ID.
A copy is made available to the voter.
The ballot is entered into the spreadsheet and cross-checked by three volunteers(Dem, Rep, Ind).
The precinct spreadsheet file is uploaded to the internet for public access.
Precinct files are consolidated for district, county and state totals.
The files would enable each voter to confirm his vote online by entering his unique voter ID code.
A spreadsheet user could download all the state precinct files to check the totals.
The networks would no longer be the source of incoming, fraudulent votes.
Exit polls would match the online totals to within 1%.
The solution is inexpensive, accurate and would serve the public interest.
That is why it will never be implemented.
There is no money in it.
The voting machine manufacturers and corrupt election officials would fight it all the way.
And of course, Congress would never do a cost/benefit analysis.
________________________________________________________________
On Election Day 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating.
The Final 2004 Election Model projected that Kerry would win 337-201 EV with 51.8%.
Preliminary State and National exit polls also indicated that Kerry won.
But Bush was the official winner by 50.7- 48.3% with 286 EV.
And so the Final National Exit poll was forced to match the fraudulent recorded vote.
The final state and national polls/projections are shown below.
Calculation of Win Probabilities
Electoral Vote - based on a 5000 election trial Monte Carlo simulation:
The EV win probability is the number of winning election trials/5000.
The expected electoral vote is the average of the 5000 election trials.
Popular Vote I - based on the State aggregate vote share projection:
The win probability is calculated using the Excel normal distribution function.
It is calculated for both a 2% and 3% margin of error (MoE).
If Obama’s projected vote share =V, his popular vote win probability is calculated by
the Excel formula: = NORMDIST (V, .50, .02/1.96, true) assuming a 2% MoE.
Popular Vote II - based on the average vote share projection using the latest 5 National polls:
The win probability is calculated using the Excel normal distribution function.
The Excel formula: = NORMDIST (V, .50, .02/1.96, true).
Obama’s win probability in each state is also calculated by the normal distribution.
The probabilities are based on 4% margin of error and the projected state vote share.
For example, assume that Obama is tied with McCain in the latest polls at 45%.
With 60% of the undecided vote, he is projected to win the 2-party vote by 51-49%.
His probability of winning is 69%: =NORMDIST (.51, .50, .04/1.96, TRUE)
The 2008 Election Calculator
This model projects that Obama will win the True Vote by 71-59m (54 - 45%).
The True Vote is calculated based on applying vote shares to returning 2004 and new voters:
2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes, 2004 voter turnout in 2008.
In projecting uncounted votes and voter turnout based on actual historical data, the model
considers several components of fraud which are never addressed by political forecasters
in academia, the media or on so-called liberal democratic websites.
2008 True Vote Election Calculator Forecast
Estimated vote share (see National Exit Poll)
2004 Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%
Total 113.7 130.9 100% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
130.9 70.8 58.5 1.6
2004 Election Model Review
The model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national models.
Both projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The Monte Carlo simulation gave Kerry an expected 337 electoral votes in the base case.
The final national 5-poll projection average was 51.8%.
The final national 18-poll projection average was 51.6%.
In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.
The Election Model projections were based on state and national Pre-election polls.
Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.
Kerry’s aggregate projected vote share (51.0%) was within 0.8% of his unadjusted exit poll share (51.8%).
The 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51 – 48%.
Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.
The state Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average deviation between the unadjusted exit poll and the vote.
It is more appropriately called Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll with 52.0%, the average of three WPD measures.
The average WPD exceeded 4.0 in 34 states for Bush and just 2 states for Kerry.
The WPD was under 2.0 in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK, TN).
It was under 2.0 in just one Democratic state: OR is the only state which votes exclusively by paper ballot.
The 1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by 48 - 51%.
All FINAL National Exit Polls are 'forced' to match the Recorded Vote.
The 'forcing' of the 2004 Exit Poll numbers resulted in IMPOSSIBLE demographics.
Either the state and national Pre-election and Exit Polls were wrong or the Recorded Vote was fraudulent.
The Election Calculator Model used 12:22am NEP vote shares applied to returning and new voters.
It determined that Kerry won a 67-57 million landslide, 53.2 - 45.4%.
2000 2004 Calculated True Vote
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.6 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.7 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.6 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.8 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100.0% 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
Votes Cast 125.7 66.9 57.1 1.7
Recorded Vote 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Unadjusted Exit Poll 51.9% 47.1% 1.0%
Deviation from True Vote -1.3% +1.7% -0.4%
Election Forecasting Methodology
Two basic methods are used to forecast presidential elections:
1) Vote share projections based on the latest state and national polls
In the Election Model, state and national projections are based on the latest polls.
Both state and national models allocate undecided voters to project the two-party vote.
The state model uses Monte Carlo simulation to determine the expected electoral vote.
The Election Model assumes the election is held on the latest poll date.
2) Projections based on historical time-series data (regression models).
These models forecast vote-share only and are usually executed months in advance of the election.
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Overview
The objective is to calculate the expected electoral vote and win probability.
The win probability for each state is calculated based on the current projection.
For each of 5000 election trials, the winner of a state is determined as follows:
Obama’s state win probability is compared to a random number (RND) between zero and one.
If the probability is less than RND, Obama wins the state EV, else McCain.
The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes.
The EV win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000.
2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls
The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs – and the unadjusted exit polls.
__________________________________________________________________
Confirmation of the State and National Pre-election Polls and Projections
The final pre-election state polls matched the pre-election national polls.
Kerry led the final pre-election state poll weighted average by 47.7- 47.0%.
He also led the final national 18-poll average by 47.3 - 46.9%.
The Election Model weighted average state projection closely matched the national.
Kerry won the state projection with 51.8% of the 2-party vote and 337 electoral votes.
He also won the national projection with 51.6% of the 2-party vote.
Undecided Voter Allocation
Professional pollsters allocate undecided voters in every election.
The majority are allocated to the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular.
Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day.
There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush monthly approval and his poll numbers.
The Gallup Poll allocated 90% of undecided voters to Kerry.
Harris and Zogby projected that he would get 67-80% of undecided voters.
The Final Election Model base case scenario assumed Kerry would capture 75% of undecided voters.
2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls
The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs – and the unadjusted exit polls.
The final pre-election state polls matched the pre-election national polls.
Kerry led the final pre-election state poll weighted average by 47.7- 47.0%.
He also led the 18 final national polls by 47.3 - 46.9%.
The final weighted average state model projection exactly matched the final 5-poll national average.
Kerry led the state model with 51.8% of the 2-party vote and 337 electoral votes.
He led the national model final 5-poll average from 11/1 with an identical 51.8% share.
He led the final 18-poll national projection from 10/20 with 51.6%.
2004 Pre-election and Exit Poll Confirmation
A few naysayers maintain that polling analysis cannot prove the 2004 election was stolen.
But after undecided voters were allocated, the pre-election polls matched the unadjusted exit polls.
Final pre-election polls showed Kerry and Bush in a virtual tie.
The unweighted state average favored Bush, but Kerry led the aggregate weighted average.
Election Model projections closely matched the exit polls:
The 12:22am National Exit Poll (Gender demographic) indicated that Kerry had 51.3% (two-party).
The Voted 2000 characteristic gave Kerry 51.9%.
Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.
It indicated that Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit polls by 51.8 - 47.2%.
The Election Model utilized 18 final national polls, 9 RV and 9 LV.
After allocating 75% of undecided voters to Kerry, he led by 50.9 - 48.1%
Based on the 122.3m recorded vote, he won by 62.3 - 58.8m.
But this does not include 3.4m uncounted votes (2.74% of total votes cast).
Assuming that Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes, add 2.5m to his total and 0.8m to Bush.
Kerry's margin becomes 64.8- 59.6m (51.6 - 47.4%).
That's within 0.2% of his 51.8% unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share.
The pre-election aggregate state polls closely matched the national poll average.
The State model projected that Kerry would win by 51.0 - 48.0% (51.8% of the 2-party vote).
The National model projected that he would win by 50.9 - 48.1% (51.6% of the 2-party vote).
The Monte Carlo simulation calculated he would win by 337- 201 electoral votes.
The unadjusted aggregate state exit poll indicated that Kerry won by 51.8 - 47.2%.
His unadjusted exit poll share exceeded the recorded vote by at least 2.5% in 26 states.
Kerry’s final projected vote share was
- greater than his recorded vote share in 47 states
- lower than his unadjusted exit poll share in 45 states
- within 2.0% of the unadjusted exit poll in 21 states and within 1% in 12 states
- at least 2% higher than his recorded vote share in 33 states
The WPE exceeded 6.0 in 25 states.
The probability of this occurrence is effectively ZERO.
The Impossible Final National Exit Poll
The 12:22am National Exit Poll (Voted 2000) indicated that Kerry won by 51.9% (2-party).
Respondents were randomly selected and the margin of error was 1.1%.
Naysayers claim the Final NEP was correct and the unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
But the Final was forced to match the recorded vote.
It used impossible weightings.
Simple MATH proves the Final NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6m.
The Final indicates that Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% (52.6m) of the 2004 electorate (122.3m).
But Bush only had 50.5m recorded votes in 2000.
Voter mortality tables show that approximately 2m Bush 2000 voters died prior to 2004.
And about 2.5m Bush 2000 voters did not vote in 2004, assuming that 95% of 48.5m voted.
Therefore, only 46.0m Bush 2000 voters could have returned to vote in 2004.
But according to the Final NEP, 52.6m returned to vote – a mathematical impossibility.
Bush needed 16 million new voters to achieve his 62m recorded vote.
According to the Election Calculator, he had 57m, an 11m increase.
Where did Bush find 16 million new voters?
Kerry won the final 5m recorded votes by 54.3 - 45.7%.
These were late votes recorded a few days after the election.
They consisted primarily of absentee and provisional ballots.
Bush won the 2004 recorded vote by 62.0 - 59.0m (50.7- 48.3%) and had 286 EV.
Of 3.4 million uncounted votes, approximately 2.6m were for Kerry - a net 1.8m margin.
Bush’s 3.0m margin is thus reduced to 1.2m – and that’s before vote-switching.
The 12:22am National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51.4 - 47.6%.
The NEP margin of error was 1.12%, assuming a 30% exit poll cluster effect.
A few still claim that polling analysis cannot prove that the 2004 election was stolen.
They claim the Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was correct and the unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
But a careful analysis of the pre-election and exit polls provides powerful evidence that it was.
The Final was forced to match the recorded vote using impossible weightings.
After undecided voters were allocated, the pre-election polls matched the unadjusted exit polls.
To believe that Bush won, one must believe that the pre-election and unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
And also believe that the Final Exit Poll, although mathematically impossible, was accurate.
The Election Calculator Model
This calculation is a close approximation to the number of new 2004 voters:
In 2000, 110.8m votes cast but only 105.4m were recorded (5.4m were uncounted).
Assuming that he had 4m uncounted votes (75% of the total), Gore had nearly 55.0m votes,
Approximately 5m voters in 2000 died prior to 2004 and another 5m did not vote, assuming a 95% turnout.
In 2004, 125.7m total votes were cast but only 122.3m recorded (3.4m were uncounted).
Therefore, there were approximately 25m new voters in 2004.
According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Kerry won:
a) 14.3m (57%) new voters; Bush won 10.3m (41%),
b) 2.4m (64%) returning Nader and other voters; Bush had 0.6m (17%),
c) 5.1m (10%) returning Bush voters; Bush won 4.1m (8%) of returning Gore voters.
Kerry won the True Vote by 67-57m (53.2 - 45.4%). The calculation is:
TV = 66.7m = 55m (Gore) - 6m (died + DNV) + 14.3m (new) + 2.4m (Other) + 5.1m (Bush) - 4.1m (Gore)
Kerry won the 2004 True Vote in a 67-57m landslide (53.2 - 45.4%).
2000 voter turnout in 2004 was total votes cast in 2000 less mortality times the turnout percentage.
In 2000, the Census reported that 110.8m votes cast, but only 105.4m were recorded.
In 2004, the Census reported that 125.7m votes cast, but only 122.3m were recorded.
The Calculator determines the True Vote based on the estimated shares of returning voters.
The 12:22am National Exit Poll “How Voted” category is a reasonable best case estimate.
Kerry won 57% of new voters and others who did not vote in 2000.
He won 91% of returning Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters.
He captured 64% of returning Nader voters. Bush had 17%.
Summary of 2004 pre-election polls, exit polls and the True Vote
Kerry Bush
Recorded 48.3 50.7
Pre-election Polls
State aggregate
Unweighted 45.6 48.3
Weighted 47.7 47
National Polls
Kerry Bush
Final 5 47.2 46.4
Final 18 47.3 46.9
131 LV 45.6 48.1 (7/6-11/01)
31 RV 45.0 45.0 (7/6-9/26)
Final 15LV 47.0 49.0
Election Model
(2-party projection)
State 51.8 48.2
Nat.5 51.8 48.2
Nat.18 51.6 48.4
State Exit Polls
(Edison-Mitofsky)
Unadjusted Kerry Bush
(WPE method)
VNS 51.8 47.2 4 outlier precincts removed
Model 51.9 47.1 all precincts included
IM 52.15 46.85 4 outlier precincts removed
Adjusted
Best GEO 51.0 48.5
Composite 50.3 49.1 1240am
National Exit Poll
Voted 2000 Kerry Bush
4pm 51.0 47.0 (8649 respondents, 38 / 41 Gore/Bush weights
730pm 50.9 47.1 (11027, 39 / 42)
12:22am 51.4 47.6 (13047, 39 / 41)
12:22am 50.8 48.2 (Gender)
Final 48.5 51.1 (13660, 37/43, forced to match vote count
Election Calculator(adjusted for 5m voter mortality, 3.4m uncounted votes, 95% 2000 voter turnout in 2004)
53.2 45.4 (39.5 / 37.1, 125.7 toal votes cast)
2004 Election Model: Pre-election State Polls, Projections and Exit Polls
Final Vote Final Poll Projected Exit poll Proj Exit Poll Kerry Kerry Proj-EP < Proj-vote > WPE>
State EV Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Kerry Diff Diff WPE Proj EV EP EV 2.0 2.0 6.0
Average 538 48.3 50.7 47.7 47.0 51.0 51.8 3.6 0.8 7.1 331 325 21 33 25
AL 9 36.8 62.5 39 57 41.3 42.5 5.7 1.2 11.3 yes yes yes AL
AK 3 35.5 61.1 30 57 39.0 40.3 4.8 1.3 9.6 yes yes yes AK
AZ 10 44.4 54.9 45 50 48.0 46.7 2.3 (1.3) 4.6 yes yes AZ
AR 6 44.5 54.3 46 48 49.8 44.8 0.3 (5.0) 0.5 6 yes AR
CA 55 54.3 44.4 49 42 55.0 59.8 5.5 4.8 10.9 55 55 yes CA
CO 9 47.0 51.7 47 48 50.0 50.1 3.1 0.1 6.1 9 9 yes yes yes CO
CT 7 54.3 43.9 52 42 55.8 62.2 7.9 6.4 15.7 7 7 yes CT
DC 3 89.2 9.3 78 11 85.5 90.9 1.7 5.4 3.4 3 3 DC
DE 3 53.3 45.8 45 38 57.0 61.3 8.0 4.3 15.9 3 3 yes yes DE
FL 27 47.1 52.1 50 47 51.5 50.9 3.8 (0.6) 7.6 27 27 yes yes yes FL
GA 15 41.4 58.0 42 52 45.8 42.5 1.1 (3.3) 2.2 yes GA
HI 4 54.0 45.3 45 45 51.8 56.4 2.4 4.6 4.7 4 4 HI
ID 4 30.3 68.4 30 59 37.5 30.8 0.5 (6.7) 1.0 yes ID
IL 21 54.8 44.5 54 42 56.3 57.0 2.2 0.8 4.4 21 21 yes IL
IN 11 39.3 59.9 39 58 40.5 40.0 0.8 (0.5) 1.5 yes IN
IA 7 49.2 49.9 50 44 53.8 50.7 1.5 (3.0) 3.0 7 7 yes IA
KS 6 36.6 62.0 37 60 38.5 37.5 0.9 (1.0) 1.7 yes KS
KY 8 39.7 59.6 39 56 42.0 39.6 (0.0) (2.4) (0.1) yes KY
LA 9 42.2 56.7 40 48 48.3 44.1 1.9 (4.1) 3.8 yes LA
ME 4 53.6 44.6 50 39 57.5 55.5 1.9 (2.0) 3.8 4 4 yes ME
MD 10 55.9 42.9 54 43 55.5 60.0 4.1 4.5 8.1 10 10 yes MD
MA 12 61.9 36.8 64 27 70.0 64.8 2.9 (5.2) 5.8 12 12 yes MA
MI 17 51.2 47.8 52 45 53.5 54.4 3.2 0.9 6.3 17 17 yes yes yes MI
MN 10 51.1 47.6 52 44 54.3 55.7 4.7 1.5 9.3 10 10 yes yes yes MN
MS 6 40.2 59.0 42 51 46.5 45.8 5.7 (0.7) 11.3 yes yes yes MS
MO 11 46.1 53.3 44 49 48.5 49.0 2.9 0.5 5.8 yes yes MO
MT 3 38.6 59.1 36 57 40.5 37.7 (0.9) (2.8) (1.8) MT
NE 5 32.7 65.9 32 61 36.5 36.7 4.1 0.2 8.1 yes yes yes NE
NV 5 47.9 50.5 49 49 49.8 52.9 5.1 3.2 10.1 5 5 yes NV
NH 4 50.2 48.9 47 47 50.8 57.0 6.8 6.3 13.6 4 4 yes NH
NJ 15 52.9 46.2 50 42 55.3 57.8 4.9 2.5 9.7 15 15 yes yes NJ
NM 5 49.0 49.8 49 49 49.8 52.9 3.9 3.2 7.8 5 5 yes NM
NY 31 58.4 40.1 57 39 59.3 64.1 5.7 4.8 11.4 31 31 yes NY
NC 15 43.6 56.0 47 50 48.5 49.2 5.7 0.7 11.3 yes yes yes NC
ND 3 35.5 62.9 35 55 41.8 32.9 (2.6) (8.9) (5.2) yes ND
OH 20 48.7 50.8 50 47 51.5 54.2 5.5 2.7 10.9 20 20 yes yes OH
OK 7 34.4 65.6 28 61 35.5 33.5 (1.0) (2.0) (1.9) OK
OR 7 51.3 47.2 50 44 53.8 53.0 1.7 (0.8) 1.8 7 7 yes yes OR
PA 21 50.9 48.4 50 45 53.0 55.3 4.4 2.3 8.8 21 21 yes yes PA
RI 4 59.4 38.7 56 36 61.3 61.8 2.4 0.5 4.7 4 4 yes RI
SC 8 40.9 58.0 42 55 43.5 45.9 5.0 2.4 10.0 yes yes SC
SD 3 38.4 59.9 42 52 45.8 36.3 (2.1) (9.4) (4.2) yes SD
TN 11 42.5 56.8 47 50 48.5 42.8 0.3 (5.7) 0.5 yes TN
TX 34 38.2 61.1 37 59 39.3 40.6 2.4 1.4 4.8 yes TX
UT 5 26.0 71.5 24 69 28.5 29.2 3.2 0.7 6.4 yes yes yes UT
VT 3 58.9 38.8 53 40 57.5 66.4 7.5 8.9 15.0 3 3 yes VT
VA 13 45.5 53.7 47 51 47.8 49.4 4.0 1.7 7.9 yes yes yes VA
WA 11 52.8 45.6 52 44 54.3 57.0 4.2 2.8 8.4 11 11 yes WA
WV 5 43.2 56.1 45 49 48.8 40.3 (2.9) (8.5) (5.8) yes WV
WI 10 49.7 49.3 51 44 54.0 52.0 2.4 (2.0) 4.7 10 10 yes yes WI
WY 3 29.1 68.9 29 65 32.8 31.2 2.2 (1.5) 4.3 yes yes WY
Election Model -18 National Polls (9RV, 9LV)
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
Sample Final Poll 2-party proj 75% UVA Proj 5-Poll MovAv
Date Size Poll Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Diff
1720 Type 47.28 46.89 51.65 48.35 3.31 50.90 48.10 51.25 47.75 3.50
Zogby 2-Nov 1200 LV 47 48 50.75 49.25 1.50 50.00 49.00 51.25 47.75 3.50
Harris 2-Nov 5508 LV 50 47 52.25 47.75 4.50 51.50 47.50 51.35 47.65 3.70
CBS 1-Nov 1125 RV 46 47 51.25 48.75 2.50 50.50 48.50 51.25 47.75 3.50
TIPP 1-Nov 1284 LV 44 45 52.25 47.75 4.50 51.50 47.50 51.15 47.85 3.30
Econ 1-Nov 2903 RV 49 45 53.50 46.50 7.00 52.75 46.25 51.20 47.80 3.40
Marist 1-Nov 1166 LV 49 48 51.25 48.75 2.50 50.50 48.50 50.85 48.15 2.70
ABC 31-Oct 3511 RV 48 47 51.75 48.25 3.50 51.00 48.00 51.25 47.75 3.50
NBC 31-Oct 1014 LV 47 48 50.75 49.25 1.50 50.00 49.00 51.45 47.55 3.90
Gallup 31-Oct 1866 RV 48 46 52.50 47.50 5.00 51.75 47.25 51.55 47.45 4.10
DemCo 31-Oct 1018 LV 48 47 51.75 48.25 3.50 51.00 48.00 51.10 47.90 3.20
FOX 31-Oct 1400 RV 48 45 53.25 46.75 6.50 52.50 46.50 51.05 47.95 3.10
Pew 30-Oct 2408 RV 46 45 52.75 47.25 5.50 52.00 47.00 50.75 48.25 2.50
ARG 30-Oct 1258 LV 49 48 51.25 48.75 2.50 50.50 48.50 49.85 49.15 0.70
Nwk 29-Oct 1005 RV 45 48 50.25 49.75 0.50 49.50 49.50 50.15 48.85 1.30
ICR 26-Oct 817 RV 44 46 51.50 48.50 3.00 50.75 48.25 na na na
LAT 24-Oct 1698 RV 48 47 51.75 48.25 3.50 51.00 48.00 na na na
Time 21-Oct 803 LV 46 51 48.25 51.75 (3.50) 47.50 51.50 na na na
AP 20-Oct 976 LV 49 46 52.75 47.25 5.50 52.00 47.00 na na na