[div class="excerpt"]
Contents

Executive Summary

Methodology

Introduction

The Contradictions of Globalization

Rising Powers

New Challenges to Governance

Pervasive Insecurity

Policy Implications




Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project

Based on Consultations With Nongovernmental Experts
Around the World



NIC 2004-13
December 2004
Purchase a Hardcopy from the Government Printing Office
(GPO stock number 041-015-00240-6) (7.44 MB)

Contents Page

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Executive Summary 9

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Methodology 19

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Introduction 25

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The Contradictions of Globalization 27
An Expanding and Integrating Global Economy 29
The Technology Revolution 34
Lingering Social Inequalities 37
Fictional Scenario: Davos World 40

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Rising Powers: The Changing Geopolitical Landscape 47
Rising Asia 48
Other Rising States? 51
The “Aging” Powers 56
Growing Demands for Energy 59
US Unipolarity—How Long Can It Last? 63
Fictional Scenario: Pax Americana 64

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New Challenges to Governance 73
Halting Progress on Democratization 73
Identity Politics 79
Fictional Scenario: A New Caliphate 83

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Pervasive Insecurity 93
Transmuting International Terrorism 93
Intensifying Internal Conflicts 97
Rising Powers: Tinder for Conflict? 98
The WMD Factor 100
Fictional Scenario: Cycle of Fear 104

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Policy Implications 111



Graphics and Tables
China�s and India�s Per Capita GDPs Rising Against US 31
When China�s and India�s GDPs Would Exceed Today�s Rich Countries 32
Telescoping the Population of the World to 2020 48
China�s Rise 50
Projected Rise in Defense Spending, 2003�2025 51
Fossil Fuels Will Continue to Dominate in 2020 59
An Expanding European Union 60
Number of Religious Adherents, 1900�2025 80
Key Areas of Radical Islamic Activities Since 1992 82
EU: Estimated and Projected Muslim Population, 1985-2025 83
Global Trends in Internal Conflict, 1990-2003 101



Special Topics
The 2020 Global Landscape 8
Mapping the Global Future 26
What Would an Asian Face on Globalization Look Like? 28
What Could Derail Globalization? 30
Biotechnology: Panacea and Weapon 36
The Status of Women in 2020 38
Risks to Chinese Economic Growth 52
India vs. China: Long-Term Prospects 53
Asia: The Cockpit for Global Change? 55
Global Aging and Migration 58
Could Europe Become A Superpower? 61
The Geopolitics of Gas 62
Eurasian Countries: Going Their Separate Ways? 74
Climate Change and Its Implications Through 2020 76
Latin America in 2020: Will Globalization Cause the Region to Split? 78
Organized Crime 96
Cyber Warfare? 97
How Can Sub-Saharan Africa Move Forward? 99
International Institutions in Crisis 102
The Rules of War: Entering �No Man�s Land� 103
Post-Combat Environments Pose the Biggest Challenge 104
Is the United States� Technological Prowess at Risk? 112
How the World Sees the United States 114

[/quote]

http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html

Boy oh boy oh boy oh boy.

China's and India's "standard of living need not approach Western levels for these countries to become important economic powers."
I wonder if these authors come to grips with a drastic decline of the West's "standard of living"?
I would hazard a guess that "levels" will be "level" by 2020 - one way or another...