The latest RCP polling averages indicate that Obama will win NC and lose IN:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_primaries.html

Latest 5-poll averages:
..BO HRC 2-pty
NC 50-42 54.3-45.7 BO has a 98% win probability
IN 44-49 47.3-52.7 HRC has a 91% win probability

There were approximately 3000 total respondents in each 5-poll group.
The probabilities were calculated assuming a 2% aggregate margin of error.

But...watch the early exit polls.

6pm: Obama leads by 12 in NC; Clinton by 5 in IN.
Watch Obama drop and Clinton rise as the night goes on.

In fact, the BS has already begun...
Avi Zenilman wrote this at 01:02 PM on Politico:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Ballot_box_roundup_Less_disorder_than_usual_so_far.html

"Also, if and when raw early exit poll numbers leak, readers are advised to ignore them, and if not that, note that the unweighted numbers have tended to overstate Obama's performance".

Avi would rather believe the vote count. Right.
When will they ever learn?

THE PUNDITS ALWAYS CLAIM THAT THE EXIT POLLS ARE OFF.
THEY NEVER QUESTION THE INTEGRITY OF THE VOTE.

Here is some abbreviated info on the preliminary exit polls (5:30pm):
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_campaignplus/20080506/ap_ca/primary_exit_poll_glance

____________________________________________________________


Based on the pattern set in the primaries, the early NC exit poll may very well show Obama leading only to lose the recorded vote. Expect to see the exit poll numbers adjusted as the votes come in. It's what the exit pollsters do: they must match the corrupted vote come hell or high water.

You know the media mantra that's coming:
..."Obama leads but it's early"
then
...it's "too close to call"
then
...it's a "big Hillary upset"

Expect the usual CW cliches:
" Hillary is the comeback kid".
" The Super Delegates must be thinking: Is Obama electable?".
" Has Reverend Wright destroyed his campaign?".
" It's going to the Convention floor."
" The Nuclear Option is on track."
" This thing ain't over yet".

The unending charade will continue.
It's all so predictable.

Now, the good news:
There is no way that Obama will be denied the nomination.
Unlike the votes, delegate numbers can't be hacked.
Check out the Excel Delegate Calculator.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.htm

Obama currently leads Clinton by 1490-1336 in pledged delegates.
In order to gain a majority (1627) of pledged delegates, Obama needs 137 (34%) of the 408 remaining unpledged delegates. Clinton needs 291 (71%).

On Feb. 20, Clinton led Obama by 81 super delegates (246-165).
She now leads by just 15 (271-256).

If Obama wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he will need 75 (28%) of the 268 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination.

1490 Obama Current Pledged Delegates
+204 Projected Pledged (50% of 408)
-----
1694 Pledged Delegates
+256 Current Super Delegates
-----
1950 Total Delegates
+75 Uncommitted Super Delegates (28% of 268)
-----
2025 Obama Clinches Nomination


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator_PledgedDelProj.gif

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator_26094_image001.png

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator_SDReqShr.gif

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator_30459_image001.png

__________________________________________________________________________________

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Ballot_box_roundup_Less_disorder_than_usual_so_far.html

Also, if and when raw early exit poll numbers leak, readers are advised to ignore them, and if not that, note that the unweighted numbers have tended to overstate Obama's performance.

By Avi Zenilman 01:02 PM