TruthIsAll
06-16-2009, 12:36 PM
The media always focuses on perceived Election Fraud everywhere but in the good old
USA. Even when the only legitimate pre-election Iran poll indicates the election was NOT rigged.
It is the Mighty Wurlitzer in action:
http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts06162009.html
The M$M and exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky will apparently NEVER release the 2008 Exit Poll report.
They won't release the preliminary National Exit Poll timeline, either.
Here's why:
1) It would only confirm unending, endemic election fraud.
2) They don't want a repeat of 2004.
3) They can't expect anyone to believe the same worn-out, fantasies they used to explain Kerry's steady 3-4% lead in the exit polls:
a) Bush voters were "shy", Kerry voter exuberant- the reluctant Bush responder (rBr)
b) Returning Gore 2000 voters lied or forgot that they voted for Gore and said they voted for Bush - a slow-drifting fog caused "false recall".
4) It would show that Obama won by at least double his recorded margin.
That's too big a mandate for "change".
In order to match Obama's 9.5 million vote margin, the Final 2008 National Exit Poll
required 11.8 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.
On the other hand, using a realistic returning voter mix and the SAME vote shares,
Obama wins by 22 million.
THAT'S A THIRTEEN MILLION NET DIFFERENCE.
The Final 2008 state exit polls were also forced to match the recorded vote.
If the media released the preliminary state exit polls (unadjusted, Best GEO and
Composite methods) it would confirm that the 2004 vote-switching algorithm was still in place.
Recall that the Final 2004 National Exit Poll (the "Smoking Gun") was forced to
match the recorded vote (Bush 62-59m) with an impossible number of returning Bush
2000 voters (at least 5 million more than were alive).
On the other hand, using a feasible returning voter mix and 12:22am NEP vote shares,
Kerry won the True Vote by approximately 10 million.
ONCE AGAIN, THAT'S A THIRTEEN MILLION NET DIFFERENCE.
ELECTION FRAUD DENIED OBAMA'S EPIC LANDSLIDE.
THE M$M DOES NOT WANT THE PUBLIC TO KNOW THE EXTENT OF OF OBAMA'S OVERWHELMING
MANDATE FOR "CHANGE".
Not that he would have used it.
[code]
2008
Final NEP – forced to match the recorded vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2008 Cast Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2004 2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Turnout/Alive
Recorded DNV - - - - 17.08 13.0% 73% 27% 0% -
48.27% Kerry 61.61 59.03 56.08 54.39 48.61 37.0% 89% 9% 2% 86.7%
50.73% Bush 62.89 62.04 58.94 57.17 60.43 46.0% 17% 82% 1% 102.5%
1.00% Other 1.24 1.23 1.17 1.13 5.25 4.0% 66% 26% 8% 450.8%
Total 125.74 122.30 116.18 112.70 131.37 100% 52.88% 45.60% 1.52% 7.28%
Total 69.47 59.90 2.00 9.56
Kerry 49.00% 48.27% Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50% 7.25%
Bush 50.02% 50.73% 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97 9.52
True Vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2008 Cast Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2004 2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Turnout/Alive
True DNV - - - - 16.44 11.8% 73% 27% 0% -
52.91% Kerry 66.53 59.03 63.20 61.30 61.30 46.7% 89% 9% 2% 97.0%
45.76% Bush 57.54 62.04 54.66 53.02 53.02 40.4% 17% 82% 1% 97.0%
1.33% Other 1.68 1.23 1.59 1.55 1.55 1.2% 66% 26% 8% 97.0%
Total 125.74 122.30 119.45 115.87 132.31 100% 57.78% 40.79% 1.43% 17.00%
Total 76.45 53.97 1.89 22.49
Kerry 52.91% 48.27% Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50% 7.25%
Bush 45.76% 50.73% 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97 9.52
________________________________________________________________________________
2004
Final NEP – forced to match the recorded vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2004 Cast Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout/Alive
DNV - - - - 20.79 17.0% 54% 44% 2% -
Gore 55.06 51.00 48.45 47.48 45.25 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 93.4%
Bush 51.76 50.46 47.93 46.97 52.59 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 109.7%
Other 4.01 3.96 3.76 3.69 3.67 3.0% 64% 14% 22% 97.5%
Total 110.83 105.42 100.15 98.14 122.30 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% -2.46%
Total 59.03 62.04 1.22 -3.01
Gore 49.68% 48.38% Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% -2.46%
Bush 46.70% 47.86% 122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23 -3.01
True Vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2004 True Vote 12:22am NEP Vote shares
2000 2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout/Alive
True DNV - - - - 22.56 15.6% 57% 41% 2% -
49.53% Gore 54.89 51.00 52.14 51.10 51.10 41.8% 91% 8% 1% 98.0%
46.71% Bush 51.77 50.46 49.18 48.20 48.20 39.4% 10% 90% 0% 98.0%
3.76% Other 4.17 3.96 3.96 3.88 3.88 3.2% 64% 17% 19% 98.0%
Total 110.83 105.42 105.28 103.18 125.74 100% 52.91% 45.76% 1.33% 7.15%
Total 66.53 57.54 1.68 8.99
Gore 49.53% 48.38% Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% -2.46%
Bush 46.71% 47.86% 122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23 -3.01
Sensitivity Analysis
Bush Kerry Share
Turnout Gore Turnout
52.9% 64% 73% 80% 96% 98%
90% 49.5% 50.8% 51.8% 54.1% 54.4%
92% 49.1% 50.4% 51.4% 53.8% 54.0%
94% 48.7% 50.0% 51.1% 53.4% 53.7%
96% 48.4% 49.7% 50.7% 53.0% 53.3%
98% 48.0% 49.3% 50.3% 52.6% 52.9%
Bush Kerry Margin
Turnout Gore Turnout
9.0 64% 73% 80% 96% 98%
90% 0.7 3.9 6.4 12.2 12.9
92% (0.3) 2.9 5.4 11.2 11.9
94% (1.3) 1.9 4.5 10.2 10.9
96% (2.3) 1.0 3.5 9.2 10.0
98% (3.2) 0.0 2.5 8.3 9.0
_______________________________________________________________________________
State Exit Poll Timeline
Recorded Vote Unadjusted WPE/ IMS Best GEO Composite 12:40am
Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin WPE EV Kerry Bush Margin Error EV Kerry Bush Margin Error EV
Total 48.27 50.73 (2.46) 251 51.97 47.03 4.9 7.39 337 51.02 48.49 2.53 4.99 301 50.27 49.07 1.20 3.65 288
AL 36.8 62.5 (25.6) 41.8 57.5 (15.6) 10.0 42.0 57.5 (15.5) 10.1 40.6 58.7 (18.1) 7.5
AK 35.5 61.1 (25.5) 40.2 56.4 (16.2) 9.3 41.2 57.4 (16.2) 9.3 39.0 58.8 (19.8) 5.7
AZ 44.4 54.9 (10.5) 44.5 54.7 (10.2) 0.3 46.5 53.5 (7.0) 3.5 46.8 53.2 (6.4) 4.1
AR 44.5 54.3 (9.8) 45.2 53.7 (8.5) 1.3 46.8 52.4 (5.6) 4.2 47.0 52.2 (5.2) 4.6
CA 54.3 44.4 9.9 55 60.1 38.6 21.5 11.6 55 56.5 43.5 13.0 3.1 55 56.5 43.5 13.0 3.1 55
CO 47.0 51.7 (4.7) 50.1 48.6 1.4 6.1 9 47.0 52.5 (5.5) (0.8) 47.7 51.4 (3.7) 1.0
CT 54.3 43.9 10.4 7 62.3 35.9 26.4 16.0 7 59.3 39.6 19.7 9.3 7 58.1 40.5 17.6 7.2 7
DE 53.3 45.8 7.6 3 61.3 37.8 23.5 15.9 3 61.5 37.9 23.6 16.0 3 57.7 41.2 16.5 8.9 3
DC 89.2 9.3 79.8 3 90.6 7.9 82.6 2.8 3 91.1 8.1 83.0 3.2 3 90.2 8.4 81.8 2.0 3
FL 47.1 52.1 (5.0) 51.0 48.2 2.8 7.8 27 49.2 50.3 (1.1) 3.9 49.3 50.1 (0.8) 4.2
GA 41.4 58.0 (16.6) 42.0 57.3 (15.3) 1.3 43.5 56.5 (13.0) 3.6 43.0 57.1 (14.1) 2.5
HI 54.0 45.3 8.7 4 58.1 41.2 16.9 8.2 4 56.5 43.4 13.1 4.4 4 53.6 46.4 7.2 (1.5) 4
ID 30.3 68.4 (38.1) 32.3 66.4 (34.1) 4.0 30.9 69.1 (38.2) (0.1) 31.6 68.3 (36.7) 1.4
IL 54.8 44.5 10.3 21 56.6 42.7 13.8 3.5 21 57.5 42.6 14.9 4.6 21 57.0 42.9 14.1 3.8 21
IN 39.3 59.9 (20.7) 40.4 58.8 (18.5) 2.2 40.5 59.6 (19.1) 1.6 41.3 58.8 (17.5) 3.2
IA 49.2 49.9 (0.7) 50.7 48.4 2.3 3.0 7 50.0 49.0 1.0 1.7 7 50.0 49.0 1.0 1.7 7
KS 36.6 62.0 (25.4) 37.2 61.5 (24.3) 1.1 36.6 62.8 (26.2) (0.8) 34.4 64.6 (30.2) (4.8)
KY 39.7 59.6 (19.9) 39.9 59.4 (19.5) 0.4 40.6 58.6 (18.0) 1.9 40.9 58.3 (17.4) 2.5
LA 42.2 56.7 (14.5) 43.5 55.4 (11.9) 2.6 43.2 56.3 (13.1) 1.4 44.3 54.8 (10.5) 4.0
ME 53.6 44.6 9.0 4 55.6 42.6 13.0 4.0 4 54.3 44.6 9.7 0.7 4 53.9 44.4 9.5 0.5 4
MD 55.9 42.9 13.0 10 59.6 39.3 20.3 7.3 10 59.4 39.7 19.7 6.7 10 56.6 42.5 14.1 1.1 10
MA 61.9 36.8 25.2 12 65.8 32.9 32.9 7.7 12 66.3 33.6 32.7 7.5 12 65.7 34.2 31.5 6.3 12
MI 51.2 47.8 3.4 17 54.4 44.6 9.8 6.4 17 51.8 47.3 4.5 1.1 17 51.9 47.1 4.8 1.4 17
MN 51.1 47.6 3.5 9 55.7 43.0 12.7 9.2 9 56.7 42.4 14.3 10.8 9 53.7 44.9 8.8 5.3 9
MS 40.2 59.0 (18.9) 49.4 49.8 (0.4) 18.5 46.2 53.2 (7.0) 11.9 43.4 56.0 (12.6) 6.3
MO 46.1 53.3 (7.2) 49.0 50.4 (1.4) 5.8 47.8 52.2 (4.4) 2.8 47.8 52.1 (4.3) 2.9
MT 38.6 59.1 (20.5) 37.3 60.4 (23.1) (2.6) 37.8 59.9 (22.1) (1.6) 37.2 60.0 (22.8) (2.3)
NE 32.7 65.9 (33.2) 37.0 61.5 (24.5) 8.7 37.5 61.7 (24.2) 9.0 36.1 62.6 (26.5) 6.7
NV 47.9 50.5 (2.6) 52.8 45.5 7.3 9.9 5 49.3 47.9 1.4 4.0 5 48.9 48.3 0.6 3.2 5
NH 50.2 48.9 1.4 4 57.2 41.9 15.4 14.0 4 57.1 42.1 15.0 13.6 4 55.1 43.9 11.2 9.8 4
NJ 52.9 46.2 6.7 15 57.5 41.7 15.8 9.1 15 58.4 40.2 18.2 11.5 15 55.3 42.8 12.5 5.8 15
NM 49.0 49.8 (0.8) 53.0 45.8 7.2 8.0 5 51.7 47.5 4.2 5.0 5 50.8 48.0 2.8 3.6 5
NY 58.4 40.1 18.3 31 64.5 34.0 30.5 12.2 31 65.1 33.8 31.3 13.0 31 63.1 35.5 27.6 9.3 31
NC 43.6 56.0 (12.4) 49.5 50.1 (0.5) 11.9 48.2 51.8 (3.6) 8.8 48.1 51.9 (3.8) 8.6
ND 35.5 62.9 (27.4) 34.6 63.7 (29.1) (1.7) 32.3 66.7 (34.4) (7.0) 33.3 64.9 (31.6) (4.2)
OH 48.7 50.8 (2.1) 54.0 45.5 8.5 10.6 20 53.2 46.7 6.5 8.6 20 52.1 47.9 4.1 6.2 20
OK 34.4 65.6 (31.1) 33.8 66.2 (32.3) (1.2) 34.1 65.8 (31.7) (0.6) 34.6 65.0 (30.4) 0.7
OR 51.3 47.2 4.2 7 52.2 46.3 6.0 1.8 7 51.3 47.2 4.2 0.0 7 50.3 47.9 2.4 (1.8) 7
PA 50.9 48.4 2.5 21 55.1 44.2 10.9 8.4 21 56.9 43.1 13.8 11.3 21 54.1 45.4 8.8 6.3 21
RI 59.4 38.7 20.8 4 62.1 36.0 26.1 5.3 4 62.4 36.3 26.1 5.3 4 62.7 34.9 27.8 7.0 4
SC 40.9 58.0 (17.1) 45.8 53.1 (7.4) 9.7 46.4 52.4 (6.0) 11.1 45.1 53.8 (8.7) 8.4
SD 38.4 59.9 (21.5) 35.9 62.5 (26.6) (5.1) 34.9 63.2 (28.3) (6.8) 36.8 61.5 (24.7) (3.2)
TN 42.5 56.8 (14.3) 43.2 56.1 (13.0) 1.3 40.3 58.5 (18.2) (3.9) 41.3 57.6 (16.3) (2.0)
TX 38.2 61.1 (22.9) 42.0 57.3 (15.3) 7.6 36.5 63.5 (27.0) (4.1) 37.1 62.9 (25.8) (2.9)
UT 26.0 71.5 (45.5) 28.1 69.4 (41.2) 4.3 29.9 69.2 (39.3) 6.2 29.9 68.3 (38.4) 7.1
VT 58.9 38.8 20.1 3 66.5 31.2 35.3 15.2 3 67.0 30.4 36.6 16.5 3 64.5 32.8 31.7 11.6 3
VA 45.5 53.7 (8.2) 49.8 49.3 0.5 8.7 13 50.2 49.7 0.5 8.7 13 48.0 51.9 (3.9) 4.3
WA 52.8 45.6 7.2 11 56.8 41.6 15.2 8.0 11 54.9 44.2 10.7 3.5 11 54.1 44.6 9.5 2.3 11
WV 43.2 56.1 (12.9) 40.2 59.0 (18.8) (5.9) 41.6 57.4 (15.8) (2.9) 44.9 54.2 (9.3) 3.6
WI 49.7 49.3 0.4 10 52.1 46.9 5.2 4.8 10 52.5 46.8 5.7 5.3 10 49.6 49.2 0.4 0.0 10
WY 29.1 68.9 (39.8) 32.6 65.4 (32.8) 7.0 34.5 63.6 (29.1) 10.7 31.6 66.4 (34.8) 5.0
This graph depicts the timeline of adjustments to the pristine 2004 state exit polls:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004ElectionCalculator_2846_image001.gif
USA. Even when the only legitimate pre-election Iran poll indicates the election was NOT rigged.
It is the Mighty Wurlitzer in action:
http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts06162009.html
The M$M and exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky will apparently NEVER release the 2008 Exit Poll report.
They won't release the preliminary National Exit Poll timeline, either.
Here's why:
1) It would only confirm unending, endemic election fraud.
2) They don't want a repeat of 2004.
3) They can't expect anyone to believe the same worn-out, fantasies they used to explain Kerry's steady 3-4% lead in the exit polls:
a) Bush voters were "shy", Kerry voter exuberant- the reluctant Bush responder (rBr)
b) Returning Gore 2000 voters lied or forgot that they voted for Gore and said they voted for Bush - a slow-drifting fog caused "false recall".
4) It would show that Obama won by at least double his recorded margin.
That's too big a mandate for "change".
In order to match Obama's 9.5 million vote margin, the Final 2008 National Exit Poll
required 11.8 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.
On the other hand, using a realistic returning voter mix and the SAME vote shares,
Obama wins by 22 million.
THAT'S A THIRTEEN MILLION NET DIFFERENCE.
The Final 2008 state exit polls were also forced to match the recorded vote.
If the media released the preliminary state exit polls (unadjusted, Best GEO and
Composite methods) it would confirm that the 2004 vote-switching algorithm was still in place.
Recall that the Final 2004 National Exit Poll (the "Smoking Gun") was forced to
match the recorded vote (Bush 62-59m) with an impossible number of returning Bush
2000 voters (at least 5 million more than were alive).
On the other hand, using a feasible returning voter mix and 12:22am NEP vote shares,
Kerry won the True Vote by approximately 10 million.
ONCE AGAIN, THAT'S A THIRTEEN MILLION NET DIFFERENCE.
ELECTION FRAUD DENIED OBAMA'S EPIC LANDSLIDE.
THE M$M DOES NOT WANT THE PUBLIC TO KNOW THE EXTENT OF OF OBAMA'S OVERWHELMING
MANDATE FOR "CHANGE".
Not that he would have used it.
[code]
2008
Final NEP – forced to match the recorded vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2008 Cast Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2004 2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Turnout/Alive
Recorded DNV - - - - 17.08 13.0% 73% 27% 0% -
48.27% Kerry 61.61 59.03 56.08 54.39 48.61 37.0% 89% 9% 2% 86.7%
50.73% Bush 62.89 62.04 58.94 57.17 60.43 46.0% 17% 82% 1% 102.5%
1.00% Other 1.24 1.23 1.17 1.13 5.25 4.0% 66% 26% 8% 450.8%
Total 125.74 122.30 116.18 112.70 131.37 100% 52.88% 45.60% 1.52% 7.28%
Total 69.47 59.90 2.00 9.56
Kerry 49.00% 48.27% Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50% 7.25%
Bush 50.02% 50.73% 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97 9.52
True Vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2008 Cast Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2004 2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Turnout/Alive
True DNV - - - - 16.44 11.8% 73% 27% 0% -
52.91% Kerry 66.53 59.03 63.20 61.30 61.30 46.7% 89% 9% 2% 97.0%
45.76% Bush 57.54 62.04 54.66 53.02 53.02 40.4% 17% 82% 1% 97.0%
1.33% Other 1.68 1.23 1.59 1.55 1.55 1.2% 66% 26% 8% 97.0%
Total 125.74 122.30 119.45 115.87 132.31 100% 57.78% 40.79% 1.43% 17.00%
Total 76.45 53.97 1.89 22.49
Kerry 52.91% 48.27% Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50% 7.25%
Bush 45.76% 50.73% 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97 9.52
________________________________________________________________________________
2004
Final NEP – forced to match the recorded vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2004 Cast Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout/Alive
DNV - - - - 20.79 17.0% 54% 44% 2% -
Gore 55.06 51.00 48.45 47.48 45.25 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 93.4%
Bush 51.76 50.46 47.93 46.97 52.59 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 109.7%
Other 4.01 3.96 3.76 3.69 3.67 3.0% 64% 14% 22% 97.5%
Total 110.83 105.42 100.15 98.14 122.30 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% -2.46%
Total 59.03 62.04 1.22 -3.01
Gore 49.68% 48.38% Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% -2.46%
Bush 46.70% 47.86% 122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23 -3.01
True Vote
Cast Recorded Alive Voted 2004 True Vote 12:22am NEP Vote shares
2000 2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout/Alive
True DNV - - - - 22.56 15.6% 57% 41% 2% -
49.53% Gore 54.89 51.00 52.14 51.10 51.10 41.8% 91% 8% 1% 98.0%
46.71% Bush 51.77 50.46 49.18 48.20 48.20 39.4% 10% 90% 0% 98.0%
3.76% Other 4.17 3.96 3.96 3.88 3.88 3.2% 64% 17% 19% 98.0%
Total 110.83 105.42 105.28 103.18 125.74 100% 52.91% 45.76% 1.33% 7.15%
Total 66.53 57.54 1.68 8.99
Gore 49.53% 48.38% Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% -2.46%
Bush 46.71% 47.86% 122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23 -3.01
Sensitivity Analysis
Bush Kerry Share
Turnout Gore Turnout
52.9% 64% 73% 80% 96% 98%
90% 49.5% 50.8% 51.8% 54.1% 54.4%
92% 49.1% 50.4% 51.4% 53.8% 54.0%
94% 48.7% 50.0% 51.1% 53.4% 53.7%
96% 48.4% 49.7% 50.7% 53.0% 53.3%
98% 48.0% 49.3% 50.3% 52.6% 52.9%
Bush Kerry Margin
Turnout Gore Turnout
9.0 64% 73% 80% 96% 98%
90% 0.7 3.9 6.4 12.2 12.9
92% (0.3) 2.9 5.4 11.2 11.9
94% (1.3) 1.9 4.5 10.2 10.9
96% (2.3) 1.0 3.5 9.2 10.0
98% (3.2) 0.0 2.5 8.3 9.0
_______________________________________________________________________________
State Exit Poll Timeline
Recorded Vote Unadjusted WPE/ IMS Best GEO Composite 12:40am
Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin WPE EV Kerry Bush Margin Error EV Kerry Bush Margin Error EV
Total 48.27 50.73 (2.46) 251 51.97 47.03 4.9 7.39 337 51.02 48.49 2.53 4.99 301 50.27 49.07 1.20 3.65 288
AL 36.8 62.5 (25.6) 41.8 57.5 (15.6) 10.0 42.0 57.5 (15.5) 10.1 40.6 58.7 (18.1) 7.5
AK 35.5 61.1 (25.5) 40.2 56.4 (16.2) 9.3 41.2 57.4 (16.2) 9.3 39.0 58.8 (19.8) 5.7
AZ 44.4 54.9 (10.5) 44.5 54.7 (10.2) 0.3 46.5 53.5 (7.0) 3.5 46.8 53.2 (6.4) 4.1
AR 44.5 54.3 (9.8) 45.2 53.7 (8.5) 1.3 46.8 52.4 (5.6) 4.2 47.0 52.2 (5.2) 4.6
CA 54.3 44.4 9.9 55 60.1 38.6 21.5 11.6 55 56.5 43.5 13.0 3.1 55 56.5 43.5 13.0 3.1 55
CO 47.0 51.7 (4.7) 50.1 48.6 1.4 6.1 9 47.0 52.5 (5.5) (0.8) 47.7 51.4 (3.7) 1.0
CT 54.3 43.9 10.4 7 62.3 35.9 26.4 16.0 7 59.3 39.6 19.7 9.3 7 58.1 40.5 17.6 7.2 7
DE 53.3 45.8 7.6 3 61.3 37.8 23.5 15.9 3 61.5 37.9 23.6 16.0 3 57.7 41.2 16.5 8.9 3
DC 89.2 9.3 79.8 3 90.6 7.9 82.6 2.8 3 91.1 8.1 83.0 3.2 3 90.2 8.4 81.8 2.0 3
FL 47.1 52.1 (5.0) 51.0 48.2 2.8 7.8 27 49.2 50.3 (1.1) 3.9 49.3 50.1 (0.8) 4.2
GA 41.4 58.0 (16.6) 42.0 57.3 (15.3) 1.3 43.5 56.5 (13.0) 3.6 43.0 57.1 (14.1) 2.5
HI 54.0 45.3 8.7 4 58.1 41.2 16.9 8.2 4 56.5 43.4 13.1 4.4 4 53.6 46.4 7.2 (1.5) 4
ID 30.3 68.4 (38.1) 32.3 66.4 (34.1) 4.0 30.9 69.1 (38.2) (0.1) 31.6 68.3 (36.7) 1.4
IL 54.8 44.5 10.3 21 56.6 42.7 13.8 3.5 21 57.5 42.6 14.9 4.6 21 57.0 42.9 14.1 3.8 21
IN 39.3 59.9 (20.7) 40.4 58.8 (18.5) 2.2 40.5 59.6 (19.1) 1.6 41.3 58.8 (17.5) 3.2
IA 49.2 49.9 (0.7) 50.7 48.4 2.3 3.0 7 50.0 49.0 1.0 1.7 7 50.0 49.0 1.0 1.7 7
KS 36.6 62.0 (25.4) 37.2 61.5 (24.3) 1.1 36.6 62.8 (26.2) (0.8) 34.4 64.6 (30.2) (4.8)
KY 39.7 59.6 (19.9) 39.9 59.4 (19.5) 0.4 40.6 58.6 (18.0) 1.9 40.9 58.3 (17.4) 2.5
LA 42.2 56.7 (14.5) 43.5 55.4 (11.9) 2.6 43.2 56.3 (13.1) 1.4 44.3 54.8 (10.5) 4.0
ME 53.6 44.6 9.0 4 55.6 42.6 13.0 4.0 4 54.3 44.6 9.7 0.7 4 53.9 44.4 9.5 0.5 4
MD 55.9 42.9 13.0 10 59.6 39.3 20.3 7.3 10 59.4 39.7 19.7 6.7 10 56.6 42.5 14.1 1.1 10
MA 61.9 36.8 25.2 12 65.8 32.9 32.9 7.7 12 66.3 33.6 32.7 7.5 12 65.7 34.2 31.5 6.3 12
MI 51.2 47.8 3.4 17 54.4 44.6 9.8 6.4 17 51.8 47.3 4.5 1.1 17 51.9 47.1 4.8 1.4 17
MN 51.1 47.6 3.5 9 55.7 43.0 12.7 9.2 9 56.7 42.4 14.3 10.8 9 53.7 44.9 8.8 5.3 9
MS 40.2 59.0 (18.9) 49.4 49.8 (0.4) 18.5 46.2 53.2 (7.0) 11.9 43.4 56.0 (12.6) 6.3
MO 46.1 53.3 (7.2) 49.0 50.4 (1.4) 5.8 47.8 52.2 (4.4) 2.8 47.8 52.1 (4.3) 2.9
MT 38.6 59.1 (20.5) 37.3 60.4 (23.1) (2.6) 37.8 59.9 (22.1) (1.6) 37.2 60.0 (22.8) (2.3)
NE 32.7 65.9 (33.2) 37.0 61.5 (24.5) 8.7 37.5 61.7 (24.2) 9.0 36.1 62.6 (26.5) 6.7
NV 47.9 50.5 (2.6) 52.8 45.5 7.3 9.9 5 49.3 47.9 1.4 4.0 5 48.9 48.3 0.6 3.2 5
NH 50.2 48.9 1.4 4 57.2 41.9 15.4 14.0 4 57.1 42.1 15.0 13.6 4 55.1 43.9 11.2 9.8 4
NJ 52.9 46.2 6.7 15 57.5 41.7 15.8 9.1 15 58.4 40.2 18.2 11.5 15 55.3 42.8 12.5 5.8 15
NM 49.0 49.8 (0.8) 53.0 45.8 7.2 8.0 5 51.7 47.5 4.2 5.0 5 50.8 48.0 2.8 3.6 5
NY 58.4 40.1 18.3 31 64.5 34.0 30.5 12.2 31 65.1 33.8 31.3 13.0 31 63.1 35.5 27.6 9.3 31
NC 43.6 56.0 (12.4) 49.5 50.1 (0.5) 11.9 48.2 51.8 (3.6) 8.8 48.1 51.9 (3.8) 8.6
ND 35.5 62.9 (27.4) 34.6 63.7 (29.1) (1.7) 32.3 66.7 (34.4) (7.0) 33.3 64.9 (31.6) (4.2)
OH 48.7 50.8 (2.1) 54.0 45.5 8.5 10.6 20 53.2 46.7 6.5 8.6 20 52.1 47.9 4.1 6.2 20
OK 34.4 65.6 (31.1) 33.8 66.2 (32.3) (1.2) 34.1 65.8 (31.7) (0.6) 34.6 65.0 (30.4) 0.7
OR 51.3 47.2 4.2 7 52.2 46.3 6.0 1.8 7 51.3 47.2 4.2 0.0 7 50.3 47.9 2.4 (1.8) 7
PA 50.9 48.4 2.5 21 55.1 44.2 10.9 8.4 21 56.9 43.1 13.8 11.3 21 54.1 45.4 8.8 6.3 21
RI 59.4 38.7 20.8 4 62.1 36.0 26.1 5.3 4 62.4 36.3 26.1 5.3 4 62.7 34.9 27.8 7.0 4
SC 40.9 58.0 (17.1) 45.8 53.1 (7.4) 9.7 46.4 52.4 (6.0) 11.1 45.1 53.8 (8.7) 8.4
SD 38.4 59.9 (21.5) 35.9 62.5 (26.6) (5.1) 34.9 63.2 (28.3) (6.8) 36.8 61.5 (24.7) (3.2)
TN 42.5 56.8 (14.3) 43.2 56.1 (13.0) 1.3 40.3 58.5 (18.2) (3.9) 41.3 57.6 (16.3) (2.0)
TX 38.2 61.1 (22.9) 42.0 57.3 (15.3) 7.6 36.5 63.5 (27.0) (4.1) 37.1 62.9 (25.8) (2.9)
UT 26.0 71.5 (45.5) 28.1 69.4 (41.2) 4.3 29.9 69.2 (39.3) 6.2 29.9 68.3 (38.4) 7.1
VT 58.9 38.8 20.1 3 66.5 31.2 35.3 15.2 3 67.0 30.4 36.6 16.5 3 64.5 32.8 31.7 11.6 3
VA 45.5 53.7 (8.2) 49.8 49.3 0.5 8.7 13 50.2 49.7 0.5 8.7 13 48.0 51.9 (3.9) 4.3
WA 52.8 45.6 7.2 11 56.8 41.6 15.2 8.0 11 54.9 44.2 10.7 3.5 11 54.1 44.6 9.5 2.3 11
WV 43.2 56.1 (12.9) 40.2 59.0 (18.8) (5.9) 41.6 57.4 (15.8) (2.9) 44.9 54.2 (9.3) 3.6
WI 49.7 49.3 0.4 10 52.1 46.9 5.2 4.8 10 52.5 46.8 5.7 5.3 10 49.6 49.2 0.4 0.0 10
WY 29.1 68.9 (39.8) 32.6 65.4 (32.8) 7.0 34.5 63.6 (29.1) 10.7 31.6 66.4 (34.8) 5.0
This graph depicts the timeline of adjustments to the pristine 2004 state exit polls:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004ElectionCalculator_2846_image001.gif