TruthIsAll
07-13-2009, 02:30 PM
Election Fraud Lockdown on Countdown!
Keith,
You were on to something VERY BIG right after the 2004 election when you reported on the impossible recorded vote divergence from the exit polls.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/7/21144/7478
You're ruminations proved prescient and you deserve great credit for that early reporting.
But like the rest of the MSM, you've been in a MAJOR LOCKDOWN ever since.
Over the past four years, a massive data warehouse of statistical and documented evidence proved that the election was stolen.
It's never too late (is it?) to review some basic facts which you were not aware of on Election Day.
It's time to step up once again.
FACT
In 2004, there were 122 million recorded votes.
FACT
In 2000, 105 million were recorded.
Approximately 5 million died prior to 2004.
Another 2 million did not return to vote.
Therefore 98 million returned to vote in 2004.
THE SIMPLE MATH
There had to be nearly 24 million (122-98) new voters in 2004.
FACT
Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000.
But 2.5 million Bush voters died and another 1 million did not vote in 2004.
Therefore, there were approximately 47 million returning Bush voters.
THE SIMPLE MATH
Assume a zero net defection of returning Bush and Gore voters:
Then Bush needed 15m (62.5%) of 24m new voters to reach 62m; Kerry had 9m (37.5%).
In other words, Bush needed a 25% margin for new voters.
The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.
It indicated that Kerry won new voters by 54-45%, a 34% net margin differential.
Kerry led by 57-41% at 12:22am (41% differential).
He led by 59-39% at 730pm (45% differential).
He led by 62-37% at 4pm. (50% differential).
SIMPLE MATH: PROBABILITY OF A 20% DISCREPANCY
What is the probability that Kerry's NEP margin of new voters would be off by 41%?
To state it another way, what is the probability than Kerry's share of new voters
would decline by 20% from the exit poll to the recorded vote?
Enter the vote shares and a 4.8% MoE into the Excel normal distribution function:
= NORMDIST(0.375,0.57,0.048/1.96,TRUE)
= 1.11022E-16 or 1 in 9,007,199,254,740,990
Why use a ridiculously high 4.8% MoE when it's actually close to 2.0%?
Because NORMDIST returns a ZERO probability for a 4.7% or lower MoE!
The 20% vote share discrepancy is 10x the 2% MoE (Zscore =10).
NOT THAT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE, BUT...
THE TRUE PROBABILITY IS MUCH, MUCH LOWER THAN 1.11022E-16!
PHANTOM ROVE MATH
The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote by stipulating 52.6 million (43%
of 122m) returning Bush voters.
Therefore approximately 5.6 million returning Bush voters were PHANTOMS.
But that's not all. In the Final, Kerry's new voter margin was reduced to 54-45%.
The exit pollsters had to FORCE A MATCH TO THE RECORDED VOTE BY NOT ONLY SPECIFYING
MORE THAN 5 MILLION PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS, THEY ALSO HAD TO REDUCE KERRY'S MARGIN AMONG NEW VOTERS:
FROM 25% AT 4pm TO 20% AT 730pm TO 16% AT 1222am TO 9% IN THE FINAL.
THERE WERE JUST 613 ADDITIONAL RESPONDENTS FROM 1222AM TO THE FINAL.
Keith, you're a stats guy, why not discuss this on Countdown?
Why don't you and Rachel come visit PI?
You would both be more than welcome.
No lockdown here.
TruthIsAll
Keith,
You were on to something VERY BIG right after the 2004 election when you reported on the impossible recorded vote divergence from the exit polls.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/7/21144/7478
You're ruminations proved prescient and you deserve great credit for that early reporting.
But like the rest of the MSM, you've been in a MAJOR LOCKDOWN ever since.
Over the past four years, a massive data warehouse of statistical and documented evidence proved that the election was stolen.
It's never too late (is it?) to review some basic facts which you were not aware of on Election Day.
It's time to step up once again.
FACT
In 2004, there were 122 million recorded votes.
FACT
In 2000, 105 million were recorded.
Approximately 5 million died prior to 2004.
Another 2 million did not return to vote.
Therefore 98 million returned to vote in 2004.
THE SIMPLE MATH
There had to be nearly 24 million (122-98) new voters in 2004.
FACT
Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000.
But 2.5 million Bush voters died and another 1 million did not vote in 2004.
Therefore, there were approximately 47 million returning Bush voters.
THE SIMPLE MATH
Assume a zero net defection of returning Bush and Gore voters:
Then Bush needed 15m (62.5%) of 24m new voters to reach 62m; Kerry had 9m (37.5%).
In other words, Bush needed a 25% margin for new voters.
The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.
It indicated that Kerry won new voters by 54-45%, a 34% net margin differential.
Kerry led by 57-41% at 12:22am (41% differential).
He led by 59-39% at 730pm (45% differential).
He led by 62-37% at 4pm. (50% differential).
SIMPLE MATH: PROBABILITY OF A 20% DISCREPANCY
What is the probability that Kerry's NEP margin of new voters would be off by 41%?
To state it another way, what is the probability than Kerry's share of new voters
would decline by 20% from the exit poll to the recorded vote?
Enter the vote shares and a 4.8% MoE into the Excel normal distribution function:
= NORMDIST(0.375,0.57,0.048/1.96,TRUE)
= 1.11022E-16 or 1 in 9,007,199,254,740,990
Why use a ridiculously high 4.8% MoE when it's actually close to 2.0%?
Because NORMDIST returns a ZERO probability for a 4.7% or lower MoE!
The 20% vote share discrepancy is 10x the 2% MoE (Zscore =10).
NOT THAT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE, BUT...
THE TRUE PROBABILITY IS MUCH, MUCH LOWER THAN 1.11022E-16!
PHANTOM ROVE MATH
The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote by stipulating 52.6 million (43%
of 122m) returning Bush voters.
Therefore approximately 5.6 million returning Bush voters were PHANTOMS.
But that's not all. In the Final, Kerry's new voter margin was reduced to 54-45%.
The exit pollsters had to FORCE A MATCH TO THE RECORDED VOTE BY NOT ONLY SPECIFYING
MORE THAN 5 MILLION PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS, THEY ALSO HAD TO REDUCE KERRY'S MARGIN AMONG NEW VOTERS:
FROM 25% AT 4pm TO 20% AT 730pm TO 16% AT 1222am TO 9% IN THE FINAL.
THERE WERE JUST 613 ADDITIONAL RESPONDENTS FROM 1222AM TO THE FINAL.
Keith, you're a stats guy, why not discuss this on Countdown?
Why don't you and Rachel come visit PI?
You would both be more than welcome.
No lockdown here.
TruthIsAll