TruthIsAll
12-30-2008, 02:01 PM
Late Votes: a consistent 10-15% discrepancy in the Democratic margin
TruthIsAll
Jan. 11, 2009
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008LateVotes.htm
On Election Day, 121.21m votes were recorded. Obama led by 63.44-56.13m (52.3-46.3%), a 6.0% margin. As of today, 131.37m votes have been recorded. View the US Election Atlas. His total recorded margin has increased to 7.5%: 69.46-59.94m (52.87-45.62%).
Obama has a 59.16-37.48% share of the 10.16m votes recorded since Election Day, a 7% increase in vote share and 15% increase in margin. In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic 2-party late vote share was 7% higher than the initial share. Gore and Kerry also had late vote margins that far exceeded their initial Election Day margins.
On Election Day 2004, 116.7m votes were recorded; Bush led by 51.2-48.3%. Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8m late 2-party votes, a 10.4% increase in margin. There were 3.4m uncounted votes.
On Election Day 2000, 102.6m votes were recorded; Gore led by 48.3-48.1% (50.1% of the 2-party vote). Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7m late 2-party votes, an 11.0% increase in margin. There were 5.4m uncounted votes.
Obama’s late vote share increased over his initial Election Day share in 13 of the18 states that had over 100,000 late votes. The states with the largest number of late votes were CA, WA, CT, NY and OH. Oddly, there was no change Obama’s share in CA and WA, the two West Coast states with the largest number of late votes. On the other hand, his late New York share was 8.5% higher, OH 2.9%, CT 2.1%. These states had significant late vote increases in Obama’s share: OR, CO, MD, VA, NJ, IL and MI.
Unadjusted exit poll data was downloaded for 15 states. In states with over 30,000 late votes, the 2-party exit poll shares closely matched the late vote shares to within 0.2% - if Michigan is excluded. In MI, Obama had an inexplicable 89.8% of the 120,000 late votes compared to 60.6% in the exit poll.
How does one explain the 2000-2008 New York late vote anomalies? In total, there were 1.56 million late votes compared to 20.1 million Election Day, a 7.8% increase. The average Democratic late vote share was 70.2%; the Election Day share was 60.0%.
New York State:
Gore won 74% of the 483,000 late votes but only 60% of the initial 6.3 million.
Kerry won 66% of the 499,000 late votes but only 58% of the initial 6.8 million. The unadjusted exit poll had Kerry at 64%.
Obama won 70.7% of the 584,000 late votes but only 62.2% of the initial 7.0 million.
In 2004, there was a 12% discrepancy in margin between the initial 116.3 million votes and the final 6.0. This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m).
The Initial and Late Vote discrepancy is a red flag. It indicates that the 2004 election was decided when 116m votes were recorded; election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes were irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner. The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 116 million recorded votes.
There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. The correlation for states with more than 40k late votes was a much stronger 0.93.
This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote:
1) High correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) Small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) Higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial recorded votes
How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states.
A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?
Late Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Diff Exceeds Diff EP Late Diff
(thousands) 52.2 46.4 1.4 54.1 44.6 3.9 MoE? 0.65% 54.1 60.4 (6.2)
FL 405 50.9 48.1 1.0 52 44 5.2 yes 0.4% 54.2 54.7 (0.5)
GA 91 46.9 52.1 1.0 47 51 1.2 28.3% 48.0 55.0 (7.0)
IN 15 49.9 48.9 1.2 52 48 3 7.0% 52.0 59.8 (7.8)
IA 13 53.9 44.4 1.7 52 48 -5.3 yes 0.4% 52.0 70.3 (18.3)
MI 120 57.4 40.9 1.7 60 39 4.5 yes 1.4% 60.6 89.8 (29.2)
MN 1.6 54.1 43.8 2.1 60 39 10.8 yes 0.0% 60.6 71.3 (10.7)
MO 10 49.3 49.4 1.4 52 48 4.2 yes 2.0% 52.0 61.7 (9.7)
NV 4 55.1 42.7 2.2 55 45 -2.4 9.3% 55.0 54.7 0.3
NH 96 54.1 44.5 1.4 52 44 -1.6 24.5% 54.2 52.4 1.8
NM 19 56.9 41.8 1.3 56 43 -1.9 17.2% 56.6 69.3 (12.7)
NC 38 49.7 49.4 0.9 52 48 3.7 3.6% 52.0 50.6 1.4
OH 500 51.4 46.8 1.8 54 45 5.2 yes 0.5% 54.5 56.2 (1.7)
PA 169 54.5 44.2 1.3 57 42 4.8 yes 0.9% 57.6 57.2 0.4
WV 7 42.6 55.7 1.8 45 55 3.1 5.2% 45.0 40.9 4.1
WI 18 56.2 42.3 1.5 58 42 2.1 17.3% 58.0 61.5 (3.5)
New York Late votes: 2000-2004
( in millions)
Late Dem Share Initial Dem Share
2000 0.483 0.36 74% 6.3 3.78 60%
2004 0.499 0.33 66% 6.8 3.94 58%
2008 0.548 0.39 71% 7.0 4.34 62%
Total 1.530 1.08 70.3% 20.1 12.06 60.0%
Timeline of incremental increase in Late Votes
( in millions)
2008 Total Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
11/4 121.21 63.44 56.13 1.64 52.34% 46.31% 1.35%
Late 2.93 1.73 1.16 0.03 59.17% 39.66% 1.17%
11/11 124.13 65.18 57.29 1.67 52.50% 46.15% 1.35%
Late 2.37 1.40 0.92 0.05 59.20% 38.73% 2.07%
11/12 126.50 66.58 58.20 1.72 52.63% 46.01% 1.36%
Late 0.75 0.45 0.28 0.02 60.38% 36.71% 2.91%
11/17 127.25 67.03 58.48 1.74 52.68% 45.96% 1.37%
Late 0.86 0.53 0.28 0.05 61.88% 32.54% 5.57%
11/21 128.11 67.56 58.76 1.79 52.74% 45.87% 1.40%
Late 1.09 0.59 0.45 0.06 53.65% 41.23% 5.11%
11/30 129.20 68.15 59.21 1.84 52.75% 45.83% 1.43%
Late 2.17 1.31 0.73 0.13 60.38% 33.50% 6.12%
12/18 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
Late 10.16 6.01 3.81 0.34 59.16% 37.48% 3.36%
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2004 Total KERRY BUSH OTHER KERRY BUSH OTHER
Init 116.7 56.4 59.8 0.4 48.32% 51.24% 0.44%
2-pty 116.2 56.4 59.8 na 45.53% 51.57%
Late 5.6 2.6 2.2 0.8 46.90% 39.40% 13.70%
2-pty 4.8 2.6 2.2 na 54.20% 45.80%
Final 122.3 59.03 62.04 1.20 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
2-pty 121.07 59.03 62.04 na 48.76% 51.24%
2000 Total GORE BUSH OTHER GORE BUSH OTHER
Init 102.6 49.5 49.3 3.8 48.25% 48.05% 3.70%
2-pty 98.8 49.5 49.3 na 50.10% 49.90%
Late 2.8 1.5 1.2 0.10 53.60% 42.90% 3.50%
2-pty 2.7 1.5 1.2 na 55.56% 44.40%
Final 105.41 51.00 50.46 3.95 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
2-pty 101.46 51.00 50.46 na 50.27% 49.73%
TruthIsAll
Jan. 11, 2009
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008LateVotes.htm
On Election Day, 121.21m votes were recorded. Obama led by 63.44-56.13m (52.3-46.3%), a 6.0% margin. As of today, 131.37m votes have been recorded. View the US Election Atlas. His total recorded margin has increased to 7.5%: 69.46-59.94m (52.87-45.62%).
Obama has a 59.16-37.48% share of the 10.16m votes recorded since Election Day, a 7% increase in vote share and 15% increase in margin. In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic 2-party late vote share was 7% higher than the initial share. Gore and Kerry also had late vote margins that far exceeded their initial Election Day margins.
On Election Day 2004, 116.7m votes were recorded; Bush led by 51.2-48.3%. Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8m late 2-party votes, a 10.4% increase in margin. There were 3.4m uncounted votes.
On Election Day 2000, 102.6m votes were recorded; Gore led by 48.3-48.1% (50.1% of the 2-party vote). Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7m late 2-party votes, an 11.0% increase in margin. There were 5.4m uncounted votes.
Obama’s late vote share increased over his initial Election Day share in 13 of the18 states that had over 100,000 late votes. The states with the largest number of late votes were CA, WA, CT, NY and OH. Oddly, there was no change Obama’s share in CA and WA, the two West Coast states with the largest number of late votes. On the other hand, his late New York share was 8.5% higher, OH 2.9%, CT 2.1%. These states had significant late vote increases in Obama’s share: OR, CO, MD, VA, NJ, IL and MI.
Unadjusted exit poll data was downloaded for 15 states. In states with over 30,000 late votes, the 2-party exit poll shares closely matched the late vote shares to within 0.2% - if Michigan is excluded. In MI, Obama had an inexplicable 89.8% of the 120,000 late votes compared to 60.6% in the exit poll.
How does one explain the 2000-2008 New York late vote anomalies? In total, there were 1.56 million late votes compared to 20.1 million Election Day, a 7.8% increase. The average Democratic late vote share was 70.2%; the Election Day share was 60.0%.
New York State:
Gore won 74% of the 483,000 late votes but only 60% of the initial 6.3 million.
Kerry won 66% of the 499,000 late votes but only 58% of the initial 6.8 million. The unadjusted exit poll had Kerry at 64%.
Obama won 70.7% of the 584,000 late votes but only 62.2% of the initial 7.0 million.
In 2004, there was a 12% discrepancy in margin between the initial 116.3 million votes and the final 6.0. This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m).
The Initial and Late Vote discrepancy is a red flag. It indicates that the 2004 election was decided when 116m votes were recorded; election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes were irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner. The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 116 million recorded votes.
There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. The correlation for states with more than 40k late votes was a much stronger 0.93.
This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote:
1) High correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) Small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) Higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial recorded votes
How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states.
A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?
Late Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Diff Exceeds Diff EP Late Diff
(thousands) 52.2 46.4 1.4 54.1 44.6 3.9 MoE? 0.65% 54.1 60.4 (6.2)
FL 405 50.9 48.1 1.0 52 44 5.2 yes 0.4% 54.2 54.7 (0.5)
GA 91 46.9 52.1 1.0 47 51 1.2 28.3% 48.0 55.0 (7.0)
IN 15 49.9 48.9 1.2 52 48 3 7.0% 52.0 59.8 (7.8)
IA 13 53.9 44.4 1.7 52 48 -5.3 yes 0.4% 52.0 70.3 (18.3)
MI 120 57.4 40.9 1.7 60 39 4.5 yes 1.4% 60.6 89.8 (29.2)
MN 1.6 54.1 43.8 2.1 60 39 10.8 yes 0.0% 60.6 71.3 (10.7)
MO 10 49.3 49.4 1.4 52 48 4.2 yes 2.0% 52.0 61.7 (9.7)
NV 4 55.1 42.7 2.2 55 45 -2.4 9.3% 55.0 54.7 0.3
NH 96 54.1 44.5 1.4 52 44 -1.6 24.5% 54.2 52.4 1.8
NM 19 56.9 41.8 1.3 56 43 -1.9 17.2% 56.6 69.3 (12.7)
NC 38 49.7 49.4 0.9 52 48 3.7 3.6% 52.0 50.6 1.4
OH 500 51.4 46.8 1.8 54 45 5.2 yes 0.5% 54.5 56.2 (1.7)
PA 169 54.5 44.2 1.3 57 42 4.8 yes 0.9% 57.6 57.2 0.4
WV 7 42.6 55.7 1.8 45 55 3.1 5.2% 45.0 40.9 4.1
WI 18 56.2 42.3 1.5 58 42 2.1 17.3% 58.0 61.5 (3.5)
New York Late votes: 2000-2004
( in millions)
Late Dem Share Initial Dem Share
2000 0.483 0.36 74% 6.3 3.78 60%
2004 0.499 0.33 66% 6.8 3.94 58%
2008 0.548 0.39 71% 7.0 4.34 62%
Total 1.530 1.08 70.3% 20.1 12.06 60.0%
Timeline of incremental increase in Late Votes
( in millions)
2008 Total Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
11/4 121.21 63.44 56.13 1.64 52.34% 46.31% 1.35%
Late 2.93 1.73 1.16 0.03 59.17% 39.66% 1.17%
11/11 124.13 65.18 57.29 1.67 52.50% 46.15% 1.35%
Late 2.37 1.40 0.92 0.05 59.20% 38.73% 2.07%
11/12 126.50 66.58 58.20 1.72 52.63% 46.01% 1.36%
Late 0.75 0.45 0.28 0.02 60.38% 36.71% 2.91%
11/17 127.25 67.03 58.48 1.74 52.68% 45.96% 1.37%
Late 0.86 0.53 0.28 0.05 61.88% 32.54% 5.57%
11/21 128.11 67.56 58.76 1.79 52.74% 45.87% 1.40%
Late 1.09 0.59 0.45 0.06 53.65% 41.23% 5.11%
11/30 129.20 68.15 59.21 1.84 52.75% 45.83% 1.43%
Late 2.17 1.31 0.73 0.13 60.38% 33.50% 6.12%
12/18 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
Late 10.16 6.01 3.81 0.34 59.16% 37.48% 3.36%
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2004 Total KERRY BUSH OTHER KERRY BUSH OTHER
Init 116.7 56.4 59.8 0.4 48.32% 51.24% 0.44%
2-pty 116.2 56.4 59.8 na 45.53% 51.57%
Late 5.6 2.6 2.2 0.8 46.90% 39.40% 13.70%
2-pty 4.8 2.6 2.2 na 54.20% 45.80%
Final 122.3 59.03 62.04 1.20 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
2-pty 121.07 59.03 62.04 na 48.76% 51.24%
2000 Total GORE BUSH OTHER GORE BUSH OTHER
Init 102.6 49.5 49.3 3.8 48.25% 48.05% 3.70%
2-pty 98.8 49.5 49.3 na 50.10% 49.90%
Late 2.8 1.5 1.2 0.10 53.60% 42.90% 3.50%
2-pty 2.7 1.5 1.2 na 55.56% 44.40%
Final 105.41 51.00 50.46 3.95 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
2-pty 101.46 51.00 50.46 na 50.27% 49.73%