TruthIsAll
04-21-2008, 09:14 AM
Pennsylvania: Hope for the best, expect the worst
TruthIsAll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/PennsylvaniaHistoricalVote.htm
The GOP wants to run against Clinton because they believe she’s a weaker candidate than Obama. Just look at the polls: Obama does much better than HRC against McCain. But the GOP vote counters will make sure that Hillary gets enough votes in PA to keep her super delegate hopes alive. And since they control the unverifiable machine count, who will question the result?
Even if the pre-election and exit polls indicate a close race, those who control the machines and count the votes will sit back and watch the show- just like they have since 2000. They know there will be no recount; there’s nothing to recount. Only electronic voting machines will be used in this election.
Paper ballots? How quaint to want to see that the votes are fairly counted in full view. The politicians and the media have revised the old saying. It’s now “Trust, but don’t expect to verify”. No one will talk about 2008 primary election fraud, except for the handful of activists, like Michael Collins (autorank)http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5600790
and BradBlog
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5916
And as usual, the media and the politicians will just go along with the myth that late undecided voters broke for Hillary; that young Obama supporters didn’t vote; that Obama’s clock was cleaned in that ABC farce of a debate. The bought and paid for moderators asked Obama about his lapel and Reverend Wright, but they didn’t ask Clinton about husband Bill’s lucrative free-trade work for Columbia and his full-court NAFTA press.
Historically, Democratic presidential candidates have always fared better in the exit polls than the recorded vote. That’s because the Republicans cheat in every election– and they will in this one. In 2004, the exit polls had Kerry winning PA by 55-44; the recorded vote was 50.9-48.4, far exceeding the 2% margin of error. His 11 point margin shrank to 3%.
Kerry won 58.6% of the final 127,000 votes (absentees, etc.). Only about 2000 PA voters were exit polled. The MoE is exceedingly low. So how could Kerry exceed his 51.1% share of the first 5643k votes by 7.5% in the final 127k? Here’s why: The final 127k votes came in days after the election ended. The fraud spigot was turned off by then.
But PA was not alone; the MoE was also exceeded in 28 other states. Move along, nothing to see. In 2000, Gore won PA by 51-46. Remember that Nader took votes away from Gore, so Al would have won by more than 5% if Nader had not run. But those returning Nader voters broke for Kerry by better than 3-1, so how did Kerry do worse than Gore in PA?
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2004 Pennsylvania Vote % Share
Kerry Bush
Recorded 50.9 48.4
Exit poll method
WPE 55.3 44.0 unadjusted
Best GEO 56.9 43.1
Composite 54.2 45.7
Timeline
Recorded Votes Kerry %
Initial 5643k 51.1
Late 127k 58.6
Final 5770k 51.3
PA Recorded Vote vs. Unadjusted Exit Poll Shares
Recorded Exit Poll
Dem Rep Dem Rep WPE
2004 50.9 48.4 55.3 44.0 8.8
2000 50.6 46.4 51.0 46.0 0.8
1996 49.2 40.0 51.0 38.2 3.6
1992 45.1 36.1 46.1 35.1 2.0
1988 48.4 50.7 48.8 50.3 0.8
2004 PA Voting Method
Recorded Chg from 2000 Pct Change Bush Change Voting
Method Precincts Total KERRY BUSH KERRY BUSH KERRY BUSH KERRY BUSH Votes Margin Inc Method
DRE 2720 1240 944 523 64% 36% 156 95 13% 12% (60.6) 0.4% 246 DRE
LEVER 4203 2373 1370 1377 50% 50% 183 244 8% 21% 61 2.5% 49 LEVER
OPSCAN 1257 562 238 408 37% 63% 27 69 5% 33% 43 3.7% 1 OPSCAN
PAPER 195 84 33 64 34% 66% 2 12 3% 40% 10 7.1% 0 PAPER
PUNCH 1030 573 301 385 44% 56% 53 72 9% 29% 11 1.0% 0 PUNCH
TOTAL 9405 4832 2886 2757 51.1% 48.9% 420 493 9% 20% 64 1.9% 296
Top 10 Counties
Berks 180 128 72 82 47% 53% 16 15 28% 22% (0.7) -2.0% 4 DRE
Montgomery 405 321 217 172 56% 44% 44 31 25% 22% (13.1) -1.6% 5 DRE
Philadelphia 1681 550 525 126 81% 19% 83 26 19% 27% (56.4) 1.0% 196 DRE
Allegheny 1309 574 364 268 58% 42% 36 33 11% 14% (2.2) 1.1% 31 Lever
Bucks 298 261 162 153 51% 49% 30 32 22% 26% 2.3 1.5% 3 Lever
Delaware 406 245 158 117 57% 43% 23 11 18% 10% (12.5) -3.3% 4 Lever
Lancaster 225 177 73 144 34% 66% 17 27 30% 23% 10.2 -1.8% 2 Lever
Westmoreland 306 154 77 99 44% 56% 6 19 8% 23% 13.2 6.8% 0 Lever
York 159 143 64 115 36% 64% 12 27 22% 31% 15.5 3.8% 0 Lever
Chester 220 186 109 119 48% 52% 27 19 33% 19% (7.5) -5.1% 1 Punch
Pennsylvania 2004 Election Calculator
2000 Recorded 2004 Recorded
Gore Bush Other Total Kerry Bush Other Total
2.485 2.281 0.120 4.681 2.938 2.793 0.034 5.765
53.1% 48.7% 2.6% 51.0% 48.4% 0.6%
Uncounted Uncounted
0.193 0.057 0.008 0.257 0.134 0.045 0.000 0.178
75% 22% 3% 5.00% 75% 25% 0% 3.00%
2004 Calculated True Vote
Kerry Bush Other
Votes Cast 3.281 2.630 0.033
Share 55.20% 44.25% 0.55%
Exit Poll 55.3% 44.0% 0.7%
Switched 0.209 -0.208 -0.001
Sw. Rate 6.4% -7.9% -4.2%
Assumptions
Vote Share 12:22am Final
Kerry Est. NEP NEP
DNV 59% 57% 54%
Gore 92% 91% 90%
Bush 10% 10% 9%
Nader 66% 64% 71%
Uncounted Votes
Pct Cast Unctd
2004 3.00% 5.943 0.178
2000 5.00% 4.927 0.246
2004 Share 2000 Share
Kerry 75% Gore 75%
Bush 25% Bush 22%
Other 0% Nader 3%
2000 Voter Mortality
Total Voters 1.22%
Gore share 50%
2000 Voter Turnout in 2004
Gore 95%
Bush 95%
Nader 95%
2000 Adjusted
Voted Rec Unctd Cast Deaths Alive
Gore 2.49 0.18 2.67 0.13 2.54
Bush 2.28 0.05 2.34 0.12 2.22
Nader 0.12 0.01 0.13 0.01 0.12
Total 4.89 0.26 5.14 0.25 4.88
2004 Calculated PA True Vote
Voted Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV DNV 1.31 22.0% 59% 40% 1%
Gore 95% 2.42 40.7% 92% 8% 0%
Bush 95% 2.11 35.4% 10% 90% 0%
Nader 95% 0.12 1.9% 66% 17% 17%
Total 4.64 5.94 100% 55.2% 44.25% 0.55%
5.94 3.28 2.63 0.03
TruthIsAll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/PennsylvaniaHistoricalVote.htm
The GOP wants to run against Clinton because they believe she’s a weaker candidate than Obama. Just look at the polls: Obama does much better than HRC against McCain. But the GOP vote counters will make sure that Hillary gets enough votes in PA to keep her super delegate hopes alive. And since they control the unverifiable machine count, who will question the result?
Even if the pre-election and exit polls indicate a close race, those who control the machines and count the votes will sit back and watch the show- just like they have since 2000. They know there will be no recount; there’s nothing to recount. Only electronic voting machines will be used in this election.
Paper ballots? How quaint to want to see that the votes are fairly counted in full view. The politicians and the media have revised the old saying. It’s now “Trust, but don’t expect to verify”. No one will talk about 2008 primary election fraud, except for the handful of activists, like Michael Collins (autorank)http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5600790
and BradBlog
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5916
And as usual, the media and the politicians will just go along with the myth that late undecided voters broke for Hillary; that young Obama supporters didn’t vote; that Obama’s clock was cleaned in that ABC farce of a debate. The bought and paid for moderators asked Obama about his lapel and Reverend Wright, but they didn’t ask Clinton about husband Bill’s lucrative free-trade work for Columbia and his full-court NAFTA press.
Historically, Democratic presidential candidates have always fared better in the exit polls than the recorded vote. That’s because the Republicans cheat in every election– and they will in this one. In 2004, the exit polls had Kerry winning PA by 55-44; the recorded vote was 50.9-48.4, far exceeding the 2% margin of error. His 11 point margin shrank to 3%.
Kerry won 58.6% of the final 127,000 votes (absentees, etc.). Only about 2000 PA voters were exit polled. The MoE is exceedingly low. So how could Kerry exceed his 51.1% share of the first 5643k votes by 7.5% in the final 127k? Here’s why: The final 127k votes came in days after the election ended. The fraud spigot was turned off by then.
But PA was not alone; the MoE was also exceeded in 28 other states. Move along, nothing to see. In 2000, Gore won PA by 51-46. Remember that Nader took votes away from Gore, so Al would have won by more than 5% if Nader had not run. But those returning Nader voters broke for Kerry by better than 3-1, so how did Kerry do worse than Gore in PA?
[code]
2004 Pennsylvania Vote % Share
Kerry Bush
Recorded 50.9 48.4
Exit poll method
WPE 55.3 44.0 unadjusted
Best GEO 56.9 43.1
Composite 54.2 45.7
Timeline
Recorded Votes Kerry %
Initial 5643k 51.1
Late 127k 58.6
Final 5770k 51.3
PA Recorded Vote vs. Unadjusted Exit Poll Shares
Recorded Exit Poll
Dem Rep Dem Rep WPE
2004 50.9 48.4 55.3 44.0 8.8
2000 50.6 46.4 51.0 46.0 0.8
1996 49.2 40.0 51.0 38.2 3.6
1992 45.1 36.1 46.1 35.1 2.0
1988 48.4 50.7 48.8 50.3 0.8
2004 PA Voting Method
Recorded Chg from 2000 Pct Change Bush Change Voting
Method Precincts Total KERRY BUSH KERRY BUSH KERRY BUSH KERRY BUSH Votes Margin Inc Method
DRE 2720 1240 944 523 64% 36% 156 95 13% 12% (60.6) 0.4% 246 DRE
LEVER 4203 2373 1370 1377 50% 50% 183 244 8% 21% 61 2.5% 49 LEVER
OPSCAN 1257 562 238 408 37% 63% 27 69 5% 33% 43 3.7% 1 OPSCAN
PAPER 195 84 33 64 34% 66% 2 12 3% 40% 10 7.1% 0 PAPER
PUNCH 1030 573 301 385 44% 56% 53 72 9% 29% 11 1.0% 0 PUNCH
TOTAL 9405 4832 2886 2757 51.1% 48.9% 420 493 9% 20% 64 1.9% 296
Top 10 Counties
Berks 180 128 72 82 47% 53% 16 15 28% 22% (0.7) -2.0% 4 DRE
Montgomery 405 321 217 172 56% 44% 44 31 25% 22% (13.1) -1.6% 5 DRE
Philadelphia 1681 550 525 126 81% 19% 83 26 19% 27% (56.4) 1.0% 196 DRE
Allegheny 1309 574 364 268 58% 42% 36 33 11% 14% (2.2) 1.1% 31 Lever
Bucks 298 261 162 153 51% 49% 30 32 22% 26% 2.3 1.5% 3 Lever
Delaware 406 245 158 117 57% 43% 23 11 18% 10% (12.5) -3.3% 4 Lever
Lancaster 225 177 73 144 34% 66% 17 27 30% 23% 10.2 -1.8% 2 Lever
Westmoreland 306 154 77 99 44% 56% 6 19 8% 23% 13.2 6.8% 0 Lever
York 159 143 64 115 36% 64% 12 27 22% 31% 15.5 3.8% 0 Lever
Chester 220 186 109 119 48% 52% 27 19 33% 19% (7.5) -5.1% 1 Punch
Pennsylvania 2004 Election Calculator
2000 Recorded 2004 Recorded
Gore Bush Other Total Kerry Bush Other Total
2.485 2.281 0.120 4.681 2.938 2.793 0.034 5.765
53.1% 48.7% 2.6% 51.0% 48.4% 0.6%
Uncounted Uncounted
0.193 0.057 0.008 0.257 0.134 0.045 0.000 0.178
75% 22% 3% 5.00% 75% 25% 0% 3.00%
2004 Calculated True Vote
Kerry Bush Other
Votes Cast 3.281 2.630 0.033
Share 55.20% 44.25% 0.55%
Exit Poll 55.3% 44.0% 0.7%
Switched 0.209 -0.208 -0.001
Sw. Rate 6.4% -7.9% -4.2%
Assumptions
Vote Share 12:22am Final
Kerry Est. NEP NEP
DNV 59% 57% 54%
Gore 92% 91% 90%
Bush 10% 10% 9%
Nader 66% 64% 71%
Uncounted Votes
Pct Cast Unctd
2004 3.00% 5.943 0.178
2000 5.00% 4.927 0.246
2004 Share 2000 Share
Kerry 75% Gore 75%
Bush 25% Bush 22%
Other 0% Nader 3%
2000 Voter Mortality
Total Voters 1.22%
Gore share 50%
2000 Voter Turnout in 2004
Gore 95%
Bush 95%
Nader 95%
2000 Adjusted
Voted Rec Unctd Cast Deaths Alive
Gore 2.49 0.18 2.67 0.13 2.54
Bush 2.28 0.05 2.34 0.12 2.22
Nader 0.12 0.01 0.13 0.01 0.12
Total 4.89 0.26 5.14 0.25 4.88
2004 Calculated PA True Vote
Voted Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV DNV 1.31 22.0% 59% 40% 1%
Gore 95% 2.42 40.7% 92% 8% 0%
Bush 95% 2.11 35.4% 10% 90% 0%
Nader 95% 0.12 1.9% 66% 17% 17%
Total 4.64 5.94 100% 55.2% 44.25% 0.55%
5.94 3.28 2.63 0.03