2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll

TruthIsAll

Nov. 7, 2008

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm

Click for the latest election results:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/

With almost 100% of precincts reporting, the latest election results show Obama leading by 65-57m votes (53-46%). But the tremendous GOTV and new registration effort has not resulted in an increase in the recorded vote from 2004 (122.3m). Compare this to the 17m increase from 2000 to 2004 (105m to 122m). The media should be asking the questions. Why is the recorded count at 123m, when a 140m+ turnout was forecast? How many voters were told they had to complete provisional ballots?

Historically, about 75% of uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, provisional and absentee) are Democratic. Therefore, if 143m votes were actually cast, the True Vote count would be approximately 80-62m (an increase of 15m for Obama and 5m for McCain). Obama’s current 8m margin would increase to 18m. This would be a landslide of major proportions (see the Election Calculator projection below).

But we will have to wait until the Census Bureau publishes its 2008 vote survey to know how many votes were cast.
Obama must have done better than the 53-46% share as indicated by the 2008 Final National Exit Poll (NEP) and the 2008 Election Model. His margin was probably closer to the 10-12% margin projected by some pre-election polls and the 2008 Election Calculator.

In order to match the vote count, the Final NEP adjusts demographic category weights and vote shares. The “Voted in 2004” category indicates a TOTALLY IMPLAUSIBLE 46 Bush/37% Kerry returning voter split of the 2008 electorate! Analysts would like to know what the split was in the earlier NEP update - before the Final was matched to the vote. We have the preliminary numbers from 2004 and the 2006 midterms.

Changes to the “How Voted” mix of returning voters from the Preliminary to the Final NEP were to the advantage of the GOP. The goal was to MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE COUNT. This election is no different. The BIG question is this: How does the official 50.7-48.3% Bush recorded margin in 2004 square with the 46/37% returning voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP? It doesn’t. The anomaly is even more ridiculous since Kerry won the True Vote and therefore the number of returning (motivated) Kerry voters far exceeded the number of returning (unmotivated) Bush voters in 2008.

The 2004 NEP “Voted in 2000” Bush/Gore voter mix was 41/39% at 12:22am; it was changed to an impossible 43/37% in the Final NEP. Election stolen.
The 2006 NEP “Voted in 2004” Bush/Kerry voter mix was 47/45% at 7pm; it was changed to an implausible 49/43% in the Final NEP. Landslide denied.
The 2008 NEP “Voted in 2004” Bush/Kerry voter mix was an implausible 46/37% in the Final NEP. Landslide denied.

Uncounted votes are an important factor in the discrepancy between the polls (pre-election and exit) and the recorded vote. The Democrats do 1-3% better in the polls than in the vote count. In 2004, Bush won the "official" vote by 50.7-48.3%. Kerry won the preliminary, adjusted 12:22am National Exit poll (13047 respondents) by 51-48%. The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) is always "forced to match" the recorded vote without consideration of uncounted and/or switched votes. Therefore, Bush won the Final by 51-48%.

In the 2000 election, 105.4m votes were recorded out of 110.8m cast. The 5.4m uncounted ballots were a combination of provisional, spoiled, lost and absentees. Therefore, we estimate that Al Gore won by at least 3m votes, not by the 540k recorded.

In 2004, 122.3m votes were recorded out of 125.7m cast (3.4m were uncounted). The 1.5m net votes to Kerry cut the Bush margin in half. And that’s before vote suppression, stuffing and switching. The Election Calculator (see below) indicates that Kerry won by 67-57m, based on a feasible (and plausible) number of returning Gore and Bush 2000 voters (4.9% mortality, 95% turnout), 3.45m uncounted votes and 12:22am NEP vote shares.

Once again, we need the unadjusted precinct exit poll data, not the Final National and State exit polls that are adjusted to match the recorded vote count. The media never releases that information, claiming the need for voter confidentiality. But we don’t want to know the names; we just want the pristine precinct exit poll data.

An analysis of Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Discrepancies from 1988-2004 reveals some very interesting information. In the 1988-2000 elections, the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate vote share was within 1% of the recorded vote after it was adjusted to include uncounted votes. But in 2004 that was not the case: adding the uncounted votes was not enough to make up the difference. Was it just a coincidence that HAVA (Help America Vote Act) was passed during the first Bush term? After HAVA, many new touch screen voting machines were installed nationwide.

The vast majority (90%) of vote-switching incidents at touch screens are from the Democrat to the Republican. We must assume that vote-switching also occurred on the central tabulators which sum the precinct vote totals (for all voting machines, including optical scanners). The touch screens have no paper trail, so a vote recount is impossible. But this analysis will focus on uncounted votes.

In Jan. 2005, exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky reported the unadjusted state poll deviations (WPE) from the recorded vote. These discrepancies indicated that Kerry won the aggregate by 52-47%.

The 2004 Election Calculator model indicated that Kerry won the True Vote by 53.2-45.8%. NEP 12:22am vote shares were assumed with feasible 2000 voter weightings.

In 2006, the pre-election Generic polls indicated that the Democrats would win by 56-42%. The 7pm National Exit Poll had the Democrats winning by 55-43%. The Final NEP was forced to match a 52-46% vote count. The Democratic 12% margin was cut in half.

Summary of Election Model and Election Calculator results

Obama won the 2008 Final NEP "Voted 2004: category by 53.1-45.1%. Although this closely matched the EM (60% UVA) split, "Voted 2004" weights and shares were implausible.

Obama won the 2008 EC True Vote by 54.4-44.6%.
NEP 12:22am vote shares were assumed with feasible 2004 voter weightings.

Obama won the 2008 EC estimated Recorded Vote by 52.1-46.9%.
Assumptions: 3% of votes cast were uncounted; 3% of Obama’s votes switched to McCain.
The 70.2-63.3m estimated recorded vote is very close to the official vote.

Obama won the 2008 EM True Vote by 53.1-44.9%.
Assumptions: Obama won 60% of the uncounted votes; 2% to 3rd parties

Obama won the 2008 EM True Vote by 54.3-44.7.
Assumptions: Obama won 75% of the uncounted votes; 1% to 3rd parties





2008 FINAL National Exit Poll

Voted
2004 Mix Obama McCain Other Notes
Kerry 37% 89% 9% 2% 37% too low; should be 42%
Bush 46% 18% 81% 1% 46% too high; should be 36%; 18% too high
Other 4% 66% 24% 10% 4% too high; should be 1% (third party vote)
DNV 13% 71% 27% 2% 13% too low; should be 21%

Total 100% 53.1% 45.1% 1.9% Obama did better than 53.1%

DNV 2004
First-time Vote?
Yes 11% 68% 31% 1% Obama won 68% of first-time voters
No 89% 50% 48% 2%

DNV04 2% 88% 11% 1% Obama won 88% of others who Did not vote in 2004
DNV 13% 71% 27% 2%

-------------------------------------

2008 Election Calculator

138.9m votes cast

Obama wins the True Vote by 76-62m (54.4-44.5%), a 14m vote margin.
Obama wins the Recorded Vote by 70-63m (52.1-46.9%): a 7m vote margin.

2008 True and Recorded Vote
............Obama McCain Other Total
True Vote 75.6 61.9 1.4 138.9
Vote Share 54.4% 44.5% 1.0% 100%

Uncounted (3.1) (.96) (.08) (4.17)
Switched (2.3) 2.3 0.00 0.00

Recorded 70.2 63.3 1.3 134.7
Vote Share 52.1% 46.9% 1.0% 100%


2004 True Vote 2008 True Vote
Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 25.1 18.1% 57% 41% 2%
Kerry 66.9 3.2 63.7 95% 60.6 43.6% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 57.1 2.8 54.3 95% 51.6 37.2% 10% 90% 0%
Other 1.7 0.1 1.7 95% 1.6 1.1% 64% 17% 19%

Total 125.8 6.0 119.7 113.7 138.9 100% 54.4% 44.6% 1.0%
138.9 75.6 61.9 1.4

2-pty 55.0% 45.0%

Had exit polls posted so I began to watch.

Mysteriously, as soon as the election was called for Obama after the western states closed their polls, the webpage and link to all exit polls was lost.

I had seen the exit polls in most states that were in the eastern, central and mountain time zones. Then poof! All are gone.

These polls had Obama winning NC, Indiana and Missouri and looking like he might win Montana (I think).

Boy I did not realize that the overall vote was so low. That is outrageous.

Guess we will see next May what the census says about how many voted.

These lost votes may cost the democrats three senate seats in Minnesota, Oregon and Alaska. Possibly not Oregon though because it is a written mail-in ballot.

[div style="width: 800px;font-family: Times New Roman,Arial;font-size: 17px;line-height: 1.5;font-style: normal"]
[div style="font-size: 24px;font-weight:bold;font-style:normal"]2008 Landslide Denied:Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll[/quote]
[link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm|TruthIsAll] source: [link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm|http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm]

Nov 6, 2008

With almost 100% of precincts reporting, the [link:www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president|latest election results] show Obama is leading by 8 million votes (53–46%). But the tremendous GOTV and [link:voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/06/obama_helps_register_49k_new_v.html|new registration] effort has not increased the recorded vote from 2004 (122.3m). Compare this to the 17m increase from 2000 to 2004. So why are the numbers so low? The media should be asking the questions. How many voters were told they had to complete provisional ballots? Once again, we need the raw exit poll data. But the media won't release it. They never do.

Historically, about 80% of uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, provisional and absentee) are Democratic. Therefore, if 140m votes were actually cast, the True Vote count is 80–60m — a landslide of major proportions. But we will have to wait until the Census Bureau 2008 vote survey to know how many votes were cast.

The vast majority (90%) of vote-switching incidents at touch screens are from the Democrat to the Republican. We must assume that vote-switching also occured on the central tabulators which sum the precinct vote totals (for all voting machines, including optical scanners). The touch screens have no paper trail, so a vote recount is impossible. But this analysis will focus on uncounted votes.

An analysis of [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x510173|Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Discrepancies] from 1988-2004 reveals some very interesting information. From 1988-2000, the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate vote share was within 1% of the recorded vote, after it was adjusted to include uncounted votes. But in 2004 that was not the case: adding the uncounted votes was not enough to make up the difference. Was it just a coincidence that HAVA (Help America Vote Act) was passed during the first Bush term? After HAVA, many new touch screen voting machines were installed nationwide.

So Obama must have done better than the Final NEP 53–46% vote share with a True vote margin close to the 55–43% projected by some of the [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x510345|pre-election polls]. In order to match the vote count, the NEP must adjust demographic category weights and vote shares. The NEP indicates a TOTALLY IMPLAUSIBLE46%-Bush 37%-Kerry returning-2004-voter split of the 2008 electorate, a ridiculous 55.4% Bush 2-party share!

The BIG question is this: How does the official 2.4% Bush 2004 margin equate to the 9% Bush margin in returning voters? It doesn’t. The anomaly is a recurring one; there were similar implausible weighting splits in the Final 2004 and Final 2006 National Exit Polls. The anomaly is even more ridiculous, since Kerry easily won the True Vote (see the 2004 Election Calculator, below).

In the 2000 election, [link:www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/07statab/election.pdf#page=3|105.4m] votes were recorded out of [link:www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p20-542.pdf#page=4|110.8m] cast. The 5.4m uncounted ballots were a combination of provisional, spoiled, lost and absentees. Therefore, we estimate that Al Gore won by at least 3m votes, not by the 540k recorded.

In 2004, [link:www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/07statab/election.pdf#page=3|122.3m] votes were recorded out of [link:www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/voting/004986.html|125.7m] cast (3.4m were uncounted). That is a 1.5m net votes to Kerry, cutting the Bush margin in half. And that’s before vote suppression, stuffing and [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x510173|switching].

Uncounted votes are always an important factor in the discrepancy between the polls (pre-election and exit) and the recorded vote. The Democrats always do 1–3% better in the polls than in the vote count.In 2004, Bush won the "official" vote by 50.7–48.3%.Kerry won the adjusted, preliminary National Exit poll ([link:organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/beginner_v2.htm#04FIN_EP|12:22am]13047 random sample)by 51–48%.The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) is always '[link:tinyurl.com/5vg6ss|forced]' to match the states-reported vote count, without consideration of [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x510173|uncounted and/or switched votes]. Therefore, Bush won the Final NEP in 2004 by 51–48%.

In Jan. 2005, exit pollsters [link:tinyurl.com/59faor|Edison-Mitofsky] reported the unadjusted state exit poll deviations (WPE) from the recorded vote. These discrepancies indicated that Kerry won the 2004 [link:tinyurl.com/5vg6ss|State Exit Poll Aggregate] by 52–47%.

The 2004 Election Calculator model indicated that Kerry won the True Vote by 53.2–45.8%.NEP 12:22am vote shares were assumed with feasible 'voted in 2000' weightings.

In [link:http://organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/cites.html#2006_Mid|2006], the pre-election Generic polls indicated that the Democrats would win by 56–42%. The 7pm National Exit poll had the Democrats winning by 55–43%. The Final NEP was forced to match a 52–46% vote count. The Democratic 12% margin was cut in half.


Summary of Election Model (EM) and Election Calculator (EC) results

Obama won the 2008 Final NEP "Voted 2004" category by 53.1–45.1%. Although this closely matched the EM (60% UVA) split, "Voted 2004" weights and shares were implausible.

Obama won the 2008 EC True Vote by 54.4–44.6%.
NEP 12:22am vote shares were assumed with feasible 'Voted-2004' weightings.

Obama won the 2008 EC estimated Recorded Vote by 52.1–46.9%.
Assumptions: 3% of votes cast were uncounted; 3% of Obama’s votes switched to McCain.
The 70.2–63.3m estimated recorded vote is very close to the official vote.

Obama won the 2008 EM True Vote by 53.1–44.9%.
Assumptions: Obama won 60% of the uncounted votes; 2% to 3rd parties

Obama won the 2008 EM True Vote by 54.3–44.7.
Assumptions: Obama won 75% of the uncounted votes; 1% to 3rd parties[/quote]


2008 FINAL National Exit Poll

Voted

2004 Mix Obama McCain Other Notes
Kerry 37% 89% 9% 2% 37% too low; should be 42%
Bush 46% 18% 81% 1% 46% too high; should be 36%; 18% too high
Other 4% 66% 24% 10% 4% too high; should be 1% (third party vote)
DNV 13% 71% 27% 2% 13% too low; should be 21%

Total 100% 53.1% 45.1% 1.9% Obama did better than 53.1%

DNV 2004
First-time Vote?
Yes 11% 68% 31% 1% Obama won 68% of first-time voters
No 89% 50% 48% 2%

DNV04 2% 88% 11% 1% Obama won 88% of others who Did not vote in 2004
DNV 13% 71% 27% 2%

-------------------------------------
2008 Election Calculator

138.9m votes cast

Obama wins the True Vote by 76-62m (54.4-44.5%): a 14m vote margin.
Obama wins the Recorded Vote by 70-63m (52.1-46.9%): a 7m vote margin.


2008 True and Recorded Vote
............ Obama McCain Other Total
True Vote 75.6 61.9 1.4 138.9
Vote Share 54.4% 44.5% 1.0% 100%

Uncounted (3.1) (.96) (.08) (4.17)
Switched (2.3) 2.3 0.00 0.00

Recorded 70.2 63.3 1.3 134.7
Vote Share 52.1% 46.9% 1.0% 100%
[div style="margin-left:1em;width: 78em;font-size: 14px;font-family:Arial;Courier New,Arial;line-height: 1.2"]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 20.0em;border-bottom: 0px solid black;font-weight:bold"]2004Calculated True Vote[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 10.5em;"][/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 13.0em"][b]2008 Calculated True Vote[div align="center" style="float:left;width: 13.0em;background:#BEFFFF;font-weight:bold"]Feasible'Voted-2004'Mix[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.75em;"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 13em;font-weight:bold"][link:tinyurl.com/5lsx6e|12:22am NEP]('[b style="color:maroon"]13047')'Voted in 00/04' Shares[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6em;font-weight:bold"][b style="color:blue"]Total Votes[br]Cast in '04

Kerry
Bush
Other

[link:tinyurl.com/bpkr5|125.8]
million[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;"]Calculated[br]True Vote[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em;max-width: 4.25em;padding-right: 1.75em;font-weight:bold;color:blue"]
66.9
57.1
1.7

125.8[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;"]Deaths[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.0em;padding-right: 1.0em"]
3.2
2.8
0.1

6.0[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;"][br]Alive[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.25em;padding-right: 0.75em;font-weight:bold"]
63.7
54.3
1.7

119.7[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em"]Est '08 Turnout[br]of 'Voted 2004'
DNV
95%
95%
95%

113.7[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.5em;"]Total Votes[br]Cast in '08[div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.5em;font-weight:bold"]25.1
60.6
51.6
1.6

138.9[br]True Vote[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;"]'Voted 2004'[br]Weight[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em;max-width: 4.5em;padding-right: 1.5em;font-weight:bold"]18.1%
43.6%
37.2%
1.1%

100.0%
138.9

2-pty[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.75em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b style="color:black"]Obama[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.5em;padding-right: 0.5em"]57%
91%
10%
64%

54.4%
75.6

55.0%[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b style="color:black"]McCain[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.5em;padding-right: 0.5em"]41%
8%
90%
17%

44.6%
61.9

45.0%[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b style="color:black"]Other[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.5em;padding-right: 0.5em"]2%
1%
0%
19%

1.0%
1.4[/quote][/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]

Refer to source for more on 2008 Election Calculator.

-------------------------------------
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionCalculator.htm|2004 Election Calculator]

[div style="margin-left:1em;width: 78em;font-size: 14px;font-family:Arial;Courier New,Arial;line-height: 1.2"]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 34.2em;border-bottom: 0px solid black;font-weight:bold"]2000:US Census Votes-Cast and State Records of Votes-Counted[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 10.5em;"][br][/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 13.0em"][b]2004 Calculated True Vote[div align="center" style="float:left;width: 13.0em;background:#BEFFFF;font-weight:bold"]True'Voted in 2000'Mix[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.75em;"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 13em;font-weight:bold"][link:tinyurl.com/5lsx6e|12:22am NEP]('[b style="color:maroon"]13047')'Voted in 2000' Shares[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6em;font-weight:bold"][b style="color:blue"]Total Votes[br]Cast in '00

Gore
Bush
Nader/Other

[link:tinyurl.com/5krbvx|110.8]
million[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;"]Recorded[br]Vote-Count[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em;max-width: 4.5em;padding-right: 1.5em;color:maroon;font-weight:bold"]
51.00
50.46
3.96

[link:uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/|105.42][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em"]Uncounted[b]Allocation[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em;max-width: 4.0em;padding-right: 2.0em;font-weight:bold;"]
4.04
1.08
0.27

5.38[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;"]Vote-Count[b]Adjusted[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em;max-width: 4.25em;padding-right: 1.75em;font-weight:bold;color:blue"]
55.04
51.53
4.23

110.80[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;"][br]Deaths[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.0em;padding-right: 1.0em"]
2.72
2.48
0.21

5.41[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;"][br]Alive[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.25em;padding-right: 0.75em;font-weight:bold"]
52.32
49.06
4.02

105.39[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em"]Est '04 Turnout[br]of 'Voted 2000'
DNV
95%
95%
95%

100.13[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.5em;"]Total Votes[br]Cast in '04[div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.5em;font-weight:bold"]25.62
49.70
46.60
3.82

[link:tinyurl.com/bpkr5|125.74][br]True Vote[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;"]'Voted 2000'[br]Weight[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em;max-width: 4.5em;padding-right: 1.5em;font-weight:bold"]20.4%
39.5%
37.1%
3.0%

100.0%
125.74[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.75em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b style="color:black"]Kerry[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.5em;padding-right: 0.5em"]57%
91%
10%
64%

53.2%
66.9[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b style="color:black"]Bush[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.5em;padding-right: 0.5em"]41%
8%
90%
17%

45.4%
57.1[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b style="color:black"]Other[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.5em;padding-right: 0.5em"]2%
1%
0%
19%

1.37%
1.73[/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]

[div style="margin-left: 2em;width: 54em;font-family: Trebuchet MS;font-size: 12px;"][div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 50em;max-width: 50em;border-top: 2px solid black;padding-left: 1px;padding-top: 2px;border-top: 2px solid black;border-left: 2px solid black;border-right: 2px solid black;line-height: 1.1;color:blue;"]SensitivityAnalysis
Kerry National Vote[/quote] [div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;line-height: 1.1;width: 10em;border-left: 2px solid black;border-right: 1px dotted white;color:black;"][br]Kerry Share of[br]Gore Voters[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 40em;border-right: 2px solid black;color:black;line-height: 1.1"][br][br]Share of New Voters (DNV in 2000)[/quote] [div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 10em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-left: 2px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;"]53.2%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]53.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]55.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]57.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]59.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-right: 2px solid black;"]61.0%[/quote] [div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 10em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-left: 2px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;"]95%[br]93%[br]91%[br]89%[br]87% [/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]54.0%
53.2%
52.4%
51.6%
50.8%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]54.4%
53.6%
52.8%
52.0%
51.2%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]54.8%
54.0%
53.2%
52.4%
51.7%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]55.2%
54.4%
53.6%
52.8%
52.1%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-right: 2px solid black;"]55.6%
54.8%
54.0%
53.3%
52.5%[/quote][div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 10em;border-left: 2px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black;"][br][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 40em;border-right: 2px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black;"][br]Kerry Margin (millions)[br][/quote] [div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 10em;border-left: 2px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;"]9.87[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-bottom: 1px solid black;"]53.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-bottom: 1px solid black;"]55.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-bottom: 1px solid black;"]57.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-bottom: 1px solid black;"]59.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 2px solid black;"]61.0%[/quote] [div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 10em;border-top: 0px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;border-left: 2px solid black;border-bottom: 2px solid black;"]95%
93%
91%
89%
87%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;;border-bottom: 2px solid black;"]11.8
9.8
7.8
5.8
3.8[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;;border-bottom: 2px solid black;"]12.8
10.8
8.8
6.9
4.9[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;;border-bottom: 2px solid black;"]13.8
11.9
9.9
7.9
5.9[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;;border-bottom: 2px solid black;"]14.9
12.9
10.9
8.9
6.9[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;;border-bottom: 2px solid black;border-right: 2px solid black"]15.9
13.9
11.9
9.9
7.9[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]

Refer to source for additional Sensitivity Analysis on Kerry National Vote.





[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]

[div style="width: 800px;font-family: Times New Roman,Arial;font-size: 17px;line-height: 1.5;font-style: normal"]
[div style="font-size: 24px;font-weight:bold;font-style:normal"]2008 Landslide Denied:Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll[/quote]
[link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm|TruthIsAll] source: [link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm|http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm]

Nov 7, 2008

With almost 100% of precincts reporting, the [link:www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president|latest election results] show Obama leading by 65–57m votes (53–46%). That’s a very solid mandate, but his True Vote is better than that. The tremendous GOTV and [link:voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/06/obama_helps_register_49k_new_v.html|new registration] effort has not resulted in an increase in the recorded vote from 2004. Remember the 17m net increase from 2000 to 2004 ([link:www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/07statab/election.pdf#page=3|105m to 122m])? The media should be asking the questions. Why is the recorded count at 123m, when a 140m+ turnout was forecast? How many voters were told they had to complete provisional ballots?

Historically, about 75% of uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, provisional and absentee) are Democratic. Therefore, if 143m votes were actually cast, Obama’s current 8 million vote margin would increase to 18m 80–62m — a landslide rivaling Johnson (’64), Nixon (’72) and Reagan (’84). View the Election Calculator projection below.

But we will have to wait until the Census Bureau 2008 vote survey to know how many votes were cast.

Obama must have done better than the 53–46% share as indicated by the Final National Exit Poll (NEP). The margin is probably closer to 55–43% (as projected by a few national [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x510345|pre-election polls]).

In order to match the vote count, the Final NEP adjusts demographic category weights and vote shares. The 'Voted in 2004' category indicates a TOTALLY IMPLAUSIBLE46%-Bush 37%-Kerry returning-2004-voter split of the 2008 electorate! Analysts would like to know what the split was in the earlier NEP update — before the Final was matched to the vote. We have the preliminary numbers from 2004 and the 2006 midterms. Changes to the “How Voted” mix of returning-voters from the Preliminary to the Final NEP were to the advantage of the GOP. The goal was to MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE COUNT. This election is no different. Landslide denied.[div style="margin-left: 4em"]
In 2004, the Final NEP 'Voted in 2000' 43/37% Bush/Gore returning-voter mix was [link:tinyurl.com/642yxd|impossible];
in the 12:22am Preliminary NEP it was 41/39%.Election stolen.

In 2006, the Final NEP 'Voted in 2004' 49/43% Bush/Kerry returning-voter mix was [link:organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/beginner_v2.htm#LS_DENIEDLS_DENIED|implausible];
in the 7pm Preliminary NEP it was 47/45%.Landslide denied.[/quote]
The BIG question is this: How does the official 2.4% Bush 2004 margin equate to the 9% Bush margin in returning voters? It doesn’t. The anomaly is even more ridiculous, since Kerry won the True Vote (see the 2004 Election Calculator, below).

Uncounted votes are always an important factor in the discrepancy between the polls (pre-election and exit) and the recorded vote. The Democrats always do 1–3% better in the polls than in the vote count.In 2004, Bush won the "[link:tinyurl.com/5km236|official]" vote by 50.7–48.3%.Kerry won the adjusted, preliminary National Exit poll ([link:organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/beginner_v2.htm#04FIN_EP|12:22am]13047 random sample)by 51–48%.The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) is always '[link:tinyurl.com/5vg6ss|forced] to match' the states-reported vote count, without consideration of [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x510173|uncounted and/or switched votes]. Therefore, Bush won the Final NEP in 2004 by 51–48%.

In the 2000 election, [link:www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/07statab/election.pdf#page=3|105.4m] votes were recorded out of [link:www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p20-542.pdf#page=4|110.8m] cast. The 5.4m uncounted ballots were a combination of provisional, spoiled, lost and absentees. Therefore, we estimate that Al Gore won by at least 3m votes, not by the 540k recorded.

In 2004, [link:www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/07statab/election.pdf#page=3|122.3m] votes were recorded out of [link:www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/voting/004986.html|125.7m] cast (3.4m were uncounted). That is a 1.5m net votes to Kerry, cutting the Bush margin in half. And that’s before vote suppression, stuffing and switching. The Election Calculator (see below) indicates that Kerry won by 67–57m, based on a feasible (and plausible) number of returning Gore and Bush 2000 voters (4.9% mortality, 95% turnout), 3.45m uncounted votes and 12:22am NEP vote shares.

Once again, we need the unadjusted precinct exit poll data, not the Final National and State exit polls that are adjusted to match the recorded vote count. The media never releases that information, claiming the need for voter confidentiality. But we don’t want to know the names; we just want the pristine precinct exit poll data.

An analysis of [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x510173|Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Discrepancies] from 1988-2004 reveals some very interesting information. From 1988-2000, the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate vote share was within 1% of the recorded vote, after it was adjusted to include uncounted votes. But in 2004 that was not the case: adding the uncounted votes was not enough to make up the difference. Was it just a coincidence that HAVA (Help America Vote Act) was passed during the first Bush term? After HAVA, many new touch screen voting machines were installed nationwide.

The vast majority (90%) of vote-switching incidents at touch screens are from the Democrat to the Republican. We must assume that vote-switching also occured on the central tabulators which sum the precinct vote totals (for all voting machines, including optical scanners). The touch screens have no paper trail, so a vote recount is impossible. But this analysis will focus on uncounted votes.

In Jan. 2005, exit pollsters [link:tinyurl.com/59faor|Edison-Mitofsky] reported the unadjusted state exit poll deviations (WPE) from the recorded vote. These discrepancies indicated that Kerry won the 2004 [link:tinyurl.com/5vg6ss|State Exit Poll Aggregate] by 52–47%.

The 2004 Election Calculator model indicated that Kerry won the True Vote by 53.2–45.8%.NEP 12:22am vote shares were assumed with feasible 'voted in 2000' weightings.

In [link:http://organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/cites.html#2006_Mid|2006], the pre-election Generic polls indicated that the Democrats would win by 56–42%. The 7pm National Exit poll had the Democrats winning by 55–43%. The Final NEP was forced to match a 52–46% vote count. The Democratic 12% margin was cut in half.


Summary of Election Model (EM) and Election Calculator (EC) results

Obama won the 2008 Final NEP "Voted 2004" category by 53.1–45.1%. Although this closely matched the EM (60% UVA) split, "Voted 2004" weights and shares were implausible.

Obama won the 2008 EC True Vote by 54.4–44.6%.
NEP 12:22am vote shares were assumed with feasible 'Voted-2004' weightings.

Obama won the 2008 EC estimated Recorded Vote by 52.1–46.9%.
Assumptions: 3% of votes cast were uncounted; 3% of Obama’s votes switched to McCain.
The 70.2–63.3m estimated recorded vote is very close to the official vote.

Obama won the 2008 EM True Vote by 53.1–44.9%.
Assumptions: Obama won 60% of the uncounted votes; 2% to 3rd parties

Obama won the 2008 EM True Vote by 54.3–44.7.
Assumptions: Obama won 75% of the uncounted votes; 1% to 3rd parties[/quote]


2008 FINAL National Exit Poll

Voted

2004 Mix Obama McCain Other Notes
Kerry 37% 89% 9% 2% 37% too low; should be 42%
Bush 46% 18% 81% 1% 46% too high; should be 36%; 18% too high
Other 4% 66% 24% 10% 4% too high; should be 1% (third party vote)
DNV 13% 71% 27% 2% 13% too low; should be 21%

Total 100% 53.1% 45.1% 1.9% Obama did better than 53.1%

DNV 2004
First-time Vote?
Yes 11% 68% 31% 1% Obama won 68% of first-time voters
No 89% 50% 48% 2%

DNV04 2% 88% 11% 1% Obama won 88% of others who Did not vote in 2004
DNV 13% 71% 27% 2%

-------------------------------------
2008 Election Calculator

138.9m votes cast

Obama wins the True Vote by 76-62m (54.4-44.5%): a 14m vote margin.
Obama wins the Recorded Vote by 70-63m (52.1-46.9%): a 7m vote margin.


2008 True and Recorded Vote
............ Obama McCain Other Total
True Vote 75.6 61.9 1.4 138.9
Vote Share 54.4% 44.5% 1.0% 100%

Uncounted (3.1) (.96) (.08) (4.17)
Switched (2.3) 2.3 0.00 0.00

Recorded 70.2 63.3 1.3 134.7
Vote Share 52.1% 46.9% 1.0% 100%
[div style="margin-left:1em;width: 78em;font-size: 14px;font-family:Arial;Courier New,Arial;line-height: 1.2"]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 20.0em;border-bottom: 0px solid black;font-weight:bold"]2004Calculated True Vote[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 10.5em;"][/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 13.0em"][b]2008 Calculated True Vote[div align="center" style="float:left;width: 13.0em;background:#BEFFFF;font-weight:bold"]Feasible'Voted-2004'Mix[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.75em;"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 13em;font-weight:bold"][link:tinyurl.com/5lsx6e|12:22am NEP]('[b style="color:maroon"]13047')'Voted in 00/04' Shares[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6em;font-weight:bold"][b style="color:blue"]Total Votes[br]Cast in '04

Kerry
Bush
Other

[link:tinyurl.com/bpkr5|125.8]
million[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;"]Calculated[br]True Vote[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em;max-width: 4.25em;padding-right: 1.75em;font-weight:bold;color:blue"]
66.9
57.1
1.7

125.8[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;"]Deaths[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.0em;padding-right: 1.0em"]
3.2
2.8
0.1

6.0[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;"][br]Alive[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.25em;padding-right: 0.75em;font-weight:bold"]
63.7
54.3
1.7

119.7[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em"]Est '08 Turnout[br]of 'Voted 2004'
DNV
95%
95%
95%

113.7[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.5em;"]Total Votes[br]Cast in '08[div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.5em;font-weight:bold"]25.1
60.6
51.6
1.6

138.9[br]True Vote[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;"]'Voted 2004'[br]Weight[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em;max-width: 4.5em;padding-right: 1.5em;font-weight:bold"]18.1%
43.6%
37.2%
1.1%

100.0%
138.9

2-pty[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.75em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b style="color:black"]Obama[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.5em;padding-right: 0.5em"]57%
91%
10%
64%

54.4%
75.6

55.0%[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b style="color:black"]McCain[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.5em;padding-right: 0.5em"]41%
8%
90%
17%

44.6%
61.9

45.0%[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b style="color:black"]Other[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.5em;padding-right: 0.5em"]2%
1%
0%
19%

1.0%
1.4[/quote][/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]

Refer to source for more on 2008 Election Calculator.

-------------------------------------
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionCalculator.htm|2004 Election Calculator]

[div style="margin-left:1em;width: 78em;font-size: 14px;font-family:Arial;Courier New,Arial;line-height: 1.2"]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 34.2em;border-bottom: 0px solid black;font-weight:bold"]2000:US Census Votes-Cast and State Records of Votes-Counted[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 10.5em;"][br][/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 13.0em"][b]2004 Calculated True Vote[div align="center" style="float:left;width: 13.0em;background:#BEFFFF;font-weight:bold"]True'Voted in 2000'Mix[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.75em;"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 13em;font-weight:bold"][link:tinyurl.com/5lsx6e|12:22am NEP]('[b style="color:maroon"]13047')'Voted in 2000' Shares[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6em;font-weight:bold"][b style="color:blue"]Total Votes[br]Cast in '00

Gore
Bush
Nader/Other

[link:tinyurl.com/5krbvx|110.8]
million[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;"]Recorded[br]Vote-Count[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em;max-width: 4.5em;padding-right: 1.5em;color:maroon;font-weight:bold"]
51.00
50.46
3.96

[link:uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/|105.42][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em"]Uncounted[b]Allocation[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em;max-width: 4.0em;padding-right: 2.0em;font-weight:bold;"]
4.04
1.08
0.27

5.38[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;"]Vote-Count[b]Adjusted[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em;max-width: 4.25em;padding-right: 1.75em;font-weight:bold;color:blue"]
55.04
51.53
4.23

110.80[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;"][br]Deaths[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.0em;padding-right: 1.0em"]
2.72
2.48
0.21

5.41[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;"][br]Alive[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.25em;padding-right: 0.75em;font-weight:bold"]
52.32
49.06
4.02

105.39[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em"]Est '04 Turnout[br]of 'Voted 2000'
DNV
95%
95%
95%

100.13[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.5em;"]Total Votes[br]Cast in '04[div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.5em;font-weight:bold"]25.62
49.70
46.60
3.82

[link:tinyurl.com/bpkr5|125.74][br]True Vote[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;"]'Voted 2000'[br]Weight[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em;max-width: 4.5em;padding-right: 1.5em;font-weight:bold"]20.4%
39.5%
37.1%
3.0%

100.0%
125.74[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.75em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b style="color:black"]Kerry[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.5em;padding-right: 0.5em"]57%
91%
10%
64%

53.2%
66.9[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b style="color:black"]Bush[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.5em;padding-right: 0.5em"]41%
8%
90%
17%

45.4%
57.1[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b style="color:black"]Other[div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;max-width: 3.5em;padding-right: 0.5em"]2%
1%
0%
19%

1.37%
1.73[/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]

[div style="margin-left: 2em;width: 54em;font-family: Trebuchet MS;font-size: 12px;"][div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 50em;max-width: 50em;border-top: 2px solid black;padding-left: 1px;padding-top: 2px;border-top: 2px solid black;border-left: 2px solid black;border-right: 2px solid black;line-height: 1.1;color:blue;"]SensitivityAnalysis
Kerry National Vote[/quote] [div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;line-height: 1.1;width: 10em;border-left: 2px solid black;border-right: 1px dotted white;color:black;"][br]Kerry Share of[br]Gore Voters[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 40em;border-right: 2px solid black;color:black;line-height: 1.1"][br][br]Share of New Voters (DNV in 2000)[/quote] [div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 10em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-left: 2px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;"]53.2%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]53.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]55.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]57.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]59.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-right: 2px solid black;"]61.0%[/quote] [div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 10em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-left: 2px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;"]95%[br]93%[br]91%[br]89%[br]87% [/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]54.0%
53.2%
52.4%
51.6%
50.8%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]54.4%
53.6%
52.8%
52.0%
51.2%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]54.8%
54.0%
53.2%
52.4%
51.7%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;"]55.2%
54.4%
53.6%
52.8%
52.1%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-right: 2px solid black;"]55.6%
54.8%
54.0%
53.3%
52.5%[/quote][div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 10em;border-left: 2px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black;"][br][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 40em;border-right: 2px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black;"][br]Kerry Margin (millions)[br][/quote] [div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 10em;border-left: 2px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;"]9.87[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-bottom: 1px solid black;"]53.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-bottom: 1px solid black;"]55.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-bottom: 1px solid black;"]57.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-bottom: 1px solid black;"]59.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 2px solid black;"]61.0%[/quote] [div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 10em;border-top: 0px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;border-left: 2px solid black;border-bottom: 2px solid black;"]95%
93%
91%
89%
87%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;;border-bottom: 2px solid black;"]11.8
9.8
7.8
5.8
3.8[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;;border-bottom: 2px solid black;"]12.8
10.8
8.8
6.9
4.9[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;;border-bottom: 2px solid black;"]13.8
11.9
9.9
7.9
5.9[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;;border-bottom: 2px solid black;"]14.9
12.9
10.9
8.9
6.9[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;;border-bottom: 2px solid black;border-right: 2px solid black"]15.9
13.9
11.9
9.9
7.9[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]

Refer to source for additional Sensitivity Analysis on Kerry National Vote.





[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]

Foo-bar just posted on DU that since the Election Model (EM) exactly matched Obama's recorded (365 EV and 53.1% share) vote with its projected 365.3 expected EV and 53.1% share, I am now distancing myself from the results by claiming that millions of uncounted votes clearly show that Obama must have done better than the the current recorded vote and the Final National Exit Poll indicate.

In other words, according to foo-bar's tortured logic, this proves that the Monte Carlo EV simulation model confirmed that the 2008 vote count is correct. But it was bogus in 2004 when it projected Kerry a 337 EV winner with a 2-party 51.8-48.2% share.

Thanks, foobar, for suggesting that the Election Model (EM) got the EV exactly right. But guess what? The Base Case scenario was conservative.

Foo-bar and other election fraud naysayers have consistently thrashed my analysis (and that of many other analysts) which indicates that the 2004 election was stolen beyond a reasonable doubt. But foo-bar can't have it both ways. Is he saying that the EM is correct in 2008 but was wrong in 2004 when it projected a Kerry win? The 2008 EM was unchanged from 2004.

The Final National Exit Poll does not compute - just look at the 46 Bush/37 Kerry returning voter mix. Totally implausible. Were returning Bush voters more motivated than Kerry voters? Give me a break.

The Election Calculator indicated that Obama had 54.5% (which is closer to the True Vote). But millions of uncounted votes will raise Obama's vote share. That's the point of the post.

It should be obvious by now that 3.4m uncounted votes cost Kerry heavily in 2004. When the uncounted votes are added to the recorded totals, the Bush 3.0m margin is cut in half. And that does not even include switched/stuffed votes. So Obama's 7m recorded margin may be half of the True margin, depending on the number of uncounted votes. Stay tuned.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x510524#510547

These are the essential points to consider:
. The Final NEP is always forced to match the recorded vote (even if fraudulent).

. I never claimed that the EM was precisely correct. That would be foolish. No model is ever exactly correct. That's why we call it a model. That's why we run many scenarios. The goal is to determine the MOST LIKELY result.

. The 2008 Election Calculator (EC) base case assumed that Obama won 75% of 3.4m uncounted votes scenario and that 95% of prior 2004 voters turned out to vote in 2008. The results clearly indicate that Obama must have done better than the recorded vote.

. In 2004, a massive new voter turnout increased Kerry's projected vote share (he won 57-60% of new voters). There was a 17m increase in the recorded vote from 2000.

. Unadjusted exit polls (release by Edison-Mitofsky in Jan, 2005) and the Election Calculator Model both indicate that Kerry did better then the final EM projections in which 75% of undecided voters were allocated (UVA) to him.

. Even though the 2008 BASE CASE expected EV perfectly matched the recorded result, this does not imply that the recorded result represents the True Vote.

. It has never been claimed that the 2004 EM projected 51-48% Kerry win was perfect, but it was confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls (52-47%).

. The Election Model projection was based on 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) going to to Obama. In fact, the 60% base case UVA is conservative considering the low 22% Bush/McCain approval. The EM provides a range of undecided voter scenarios. The base case 60% UVA resulted in 365.7 expected EV for Obama; the 75% UVA scenario reulted in a 379.5 expected EV.

. Obama did better than the Final Election Model (EM)projection indicates. Just because the base case scenario matched the actual recorded result does not make it the Holy Grail. That's why the EM includes a sensitivity analysis.

. In 2004 Kerry also did better than the final EM base case UVA (75%) scenario. The 337 EV matched the EV total based on the unadjusted state exit polls (WPE/MIS).

I should have gone with a 75% UVA this time. In fact I was going to change it to 75% in the Final but decided to keep it at 60% so as not to skew the trend. But the UVA impact is displayed in the sensitivity analysis.

. The base case (60% UVA) scenario gave Obama 53.1% (54.3% of the 2-party vote) and 365.3 EV. The 75% UVA scenario gave Obama 53.9% (55.0% 2-party) and 379.5 EV. The projection assumed 2% to third parties.

. The 2008 Election Calculator (EC) projected Obama at 54.5-44.4%, based on a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and 12:22am vote shares.

. The difference between the 2008 EM and EC results is similar to the 2004 EM and unadjusted exit poll results. The EM base projected Kerry to win 51.3% (51.8% two-party) with 337 EV (75% UVA). The Unadjusted Exit Poll (WPE/IMS) had him at 52-47%.

. The Election Calculator determined the True Vote as 53.2%-45.8%, based on feasible weights and 12:22am NEP vote shares.

. The 2004 and 2008 EM/EC results are consistent. The EM Obama projection (53.1%) was lower than the EC True Vote(54.5%); the EM Kerry projection (51.3%) was lower than the EC True Vote (53.2%).

All in all, both models worked just fine in 2004 and 2008, thank you.

I cannot keep up with all the numbers, but after reading the thread as it now exists, I take it that the vote counting process is just another fraud where the public will might be granted or might be rejected.

To bad their is absolutely no demand from corporate media to report this, as this analysis is more telling than the hours spent on selection night calling the horse races.

Something is wrong when we don't promote the practice of exit polling and educating the public on the need for it. We know the vote counting process is highly flawed and corrupt, but we cannot change it. Obombem does not even mention it much less change it- another lesson in plain sight that we cannot learn.

No change. The people that control the system and could take the corruption out are happy with the vote counting system.