TruthIsAll
05-09-2008, 08:39 AM
Clinton needs 100% of the remaining white vote to catch Obama
She has 1426 pledged delegates. There are 217 unpledged.
She needs 201 (93%) to get a majority (1627) of pledged delegates.
If black votes comprise approximately 10% (22) of the remaining 217 delegates, then she needs to win 100% of the remaining white and hispanic vote (193 delegates)and... and hope that 36% of blacks will vote for her (8 delegates).
But Obama gets 92% of the black vote.
THE DELEGATE CALCULATOR
TruthIsAll
May 13, 2008
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.xls
[code]
1627 Pledged Delegates required for majority
2025 Total Delegates required for the nomination
Obama
1590 Pledged 37 delegates (17%) required for majority
279 Super
1869 Total 156 delegates (34%) required for nomination
Clinton
1426 Pledged 201 delegates (93%) required for majority
275 Super
1701 Total 324 delegates (71%) required for nomination
Unpledged
217 Delegates
241 Super delegates
458 Total delgates
She has 1426 pledged delegates. There are 217 unpledged.
She needs 201 (93%) to get a majority (1627) of pledged delegates.
If black votes comprise approximately 10% (22) of the remaining 217 delegates, then she needs to win 100% of the remaining white and hispanic vote (193 delegates)and... and hope that 36% of blacks will vote for her (8 delegates).
But Obama gets 92% of the black vote.
THE DELEGATE CALCULATOR
TruthIsAll
May 13, 2008
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.xls
[code]
1627 Pledged Delegates required for majority
2025 Total Delegates required for the nomination
Obama
1590 Pledged 37 delegates (17%) required for majority
279 Super
1869 Total 156 delegates (34%) required for nomination
Clinton
1426 Pledged 201 delegates (93%) required for majority
275 Super
1701 Total 324 delegates (71%) required for nomination
Unpledged
217 Delegates
241 Super delegates
458 Total delgates