TruthIsAll
01-12-2009, 01:18 AM
Why the Final Pre-election Polls and the National Exit Poll Confirm an Obama 20m Vote Landslide
TruthIsAll
Jan.17, 2009
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008LVRVCorrect.htm
This analysis will show why the final likely voter (LV) and registered voter (RV) polls, in conjunction with the National Exit Poll, confirm that Obama won a landslide at least double his 9.5m official vote margin. The mathematical confirmation is not obvious and requires a focus on the structure (and anomalies) in the pre-election and exit polls.
Adjustments must be applied to the final pre-election polls and National Exit Poll to derive an approximation to the True Vote. The following facts should be clearly understood so that the adjustments make sense intuitively.
- RV polls sample registered voters.
- LV polls sample likely but not new registered voters. They are a subset of RV polls.
- Obama’s average 13% RV poll margin was double his LV poll margin.
- From 1992-2004, the Democrats won new voters by a 14% average margin.
- In 2008, there were approximately 20.8m new voters (131.37m less 110.6m returning 2004 voters).
- According to the Final National Exit Poll (NEP) Obama had 71%(14.7m) of 20.8 million new voters.
- Final pre-election polls indicated that approximately 5% of voters were undecided.
- Undecided voters typically break 70-90% for the challenger (Obama).
- Based on the final LV 9-poll average with undecided voters allocated, Obama had 54.0% (59.7 of 110.6m returning voters).
- Combining new and returning voters, Obama won by 74.4 - 54.9m (56.7 - 41.8%)
- Obama had an average 56.9% share in the final 2 RV polls - within 0.2% of the combined LV (returning voter) and new voter share.
- The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) is always “forced to match” the official recorded vote count.
- In 2004, the Final NEP Bush/Gore 43 / 37% voter mix implied there were 52.6m Bush 2000 voters in 2004; he had 50.5m in 2000.
- In 2006, the Bush/Kerry returning voter mix was an implausible 49 / 43%. The Democratic landslide was denied.
- In 2008, the impossible Bush/Kerry 46 / 37% mix implied there were 11m more returning Bush than Kerry voters; Bush won by 3m votes.
- The Election Calculator model confirmed both the LV poll / new voter share and the RV projection
In order to determine the number of returning 2004 and new 2008 voters, voter mortality and turnout rate estimates were applied to the recorded 2004 vote. The calculation indicated that there were approximately 110.6m returning voters. Since 131.37m votes were recorded, there were approximately 20.77m new voters (15.8% of the total). Based on the 71-27% NEP share, Obama won new voters by 14.7-5.6m.
Pollsters usually allocate 60-90% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the challenger. The UVA is a function of the incumbent's job performance. Obama’s UVA was projected at 75%. This was plausible since he was the "challenger". McCain represented an incumbent with a 22% approval rating.
Considering that the LV polls do not include new voters, why not break the projection of the total vote into two parts? Let’s use the average LV poll to calculate the Obama/McCain shares of returning (likely) voters and use the National Exit Poll to calculate their share of new voters.
According to the National Exit Poll (NEP), 13% (17m) of the 2008 electorate consisted of new voters and returning third-party voters 4% (5.2m). But 4% is impossible because only 1.2m third-party votes were recorded in 2004. If the third-party percentage is changed to the true 1%, then applying 3% to new voters raises the percentage to 16%, which means that there were 21m new voters, not 17m as the NEP indicates.
Although this does not have a material effect on the total Obama share (he had 71% of new voters and 66% of other) it does indicate that more weight should be given to pre-election RV polls which included new voters than to the LV polls which did not.
We can approximate the number of returning 2004 voters by applying the 1.2% annual U.S. voter mortality rate (4.8% since 2004) and assuming that 95% of living 2004 voters returned to vote in 2008. and returning third-party voters 4% (5.2m). But 4% is impossible because only 1.2m third-party votes were recorded in 2004. If the third-party percentage is changed to the true 1%, then applying 3% to new voters raises the percentage to 16% - 21m new voters, not 17m as the NEP indicates.
Although this does not have a material effect on the total Obama share (he had 71% of new voters and 66% of other) it does indicate that more weight should be given to the pre-election RV polls, which included new voters, than the LV polls which did not.
In 2004, 122.3m votes were recorded. Applying the 4.8% mortality rate and 95% turnout, 110.6m returned to vote in 2008. Since 131.37m votes were recorded, simple subtraction shows that there were approximately 20.8, new voters.
The National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded 52.87-45.62% recorded vote – but the returning voter mix was impossible (see below).
The 2008 Election Calculator confirmed the above analysis:
Obama had 55.3%, assuming the NEP “Voted in 2004” shares and the 2004 recorded vote (adjusted for mortality and turnout).
Obama had 57.5%, assuming the NEP “Voted in 2004” shares and the 2004 unadjusted exit poll (adjusted for mortality and turnout).
Based on the above logic, this confirms the accuracy of the RV and LV polls:
1. Pre-election LV polls were correct in predicting the likely voter (returning) vote shares.
2. Pre-election RV polls were correct in predicting the registered (returning and new) vote shares.
3. LV polls are misleading; they understate the true Obama margin by 6%.
4. RV polls, adjusted for undecided voters, were accurate.
5. Obama won the True Vote with a 57% share and 22 million vote margin.
[code]
LV and RV Projections of Returning 2004 Voters
Recorded votes
2004 122.30m
2008 131.37
Assumptions
75% UVA to Obama
2004 Voters
4.8% mortality (5.87m)
95% turnout in 2008 (110.61m)
2008 National Exit Poll share of new voters
Obama 71%
McCain 27%
Other 2%
Calculating the 2008 True Vote
(Use final 9 LV polls for returning voters and National Exit Poll for new voters)
Recorded
Total Obama McCain Other
131.37 69.46 59.93 1.98
100% 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
Pre-election Nov. Poll shares
Poll BO JM Other Undecided
LV (9) 51.00% 43.56% 1.50% 3.94%
RV (3) 52.33% 40.00% 1.50% 6.17%
Allocate undecided voters
(75% UVA to Obama)
UVA Obama McCain Other
LV 53.96% 44.55% 1.50%
RV 56.95% 41.55% 1.50%
Calculate returning voters from 2004
2004
Voted 122.29
Died 5.87 (4.8% mortality over 4 years)
Alive 116.42
Assume 95% turnout of 116.42 (LV)
2008
Voted 131.37
Turnout 110.60
------
New 20.77
Vote Obama McCain Other Total
NEP 71.0% 27.0% 2.0% 100%
New 14.75 5.61 0.42 20.77
Return 53.96% 44.55% 1.50% 100.0%
Turnout 59.67 49.27 1.66 110.60
True Vote
Total 74.42 54.87 2.07 131.37
Share 56.65% 41.77% 1.58% 100.00%
Recorded Vote
Total 69.46 59.93 1.98 131.37
Share 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 100.0%
Final 3 RV Polls (11/02)
75%UVA 25%UVA
Poll Poll Sample Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
10RV Date Average 52.33 40.00 12.33 56.96 41.55 15.42
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2847RV 53 40 13 57.125 41.375 15.75
ABC/WP 10/31 - 11/02 2446RV 54 41 13 56.625 41.875 14.75
Pew 10/29 - 11/01 1325RV 50 39 11 57.125 41.375 15.75
LV and RV Poll Averages (10/03-11/03)
75%UVA 25%UVA
Average Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
10 RV 50.30 40.00 10.30 56.45 42.05 14.40
25 LV 50.84 42.60 8.24 54.64 43.87 10.77
Final 10 RV Polls (10/04-11/02)
75%UVA 25%UVA
Poll Poll Sample Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
10 RV Date Average 50.30 40.00 10.30 56.45 42.05 14.40
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2847 53 40 13 57.13 41.38 15.75
ABC/WP 10/31 - 11/02 2446 54 41 13 56.63 41.88 14.75
Pew 10/29 - 11/01 1325 50 39 11 57.13 41.38 15.75
Pew 10/23 - 10/26 1325 52 36 16 59.88 38.63 21.25
NBC/WSJ 10/18 - 10/20 1159 52 42 10 55.38 43.13 12.25
Ipsos 10/09 - 10/13 1036 48 39 9 56.63 41.88 14.75
Newswk 10/08 - 10/09 1035 52 41 11 56.13 42.38 13.75
FOX 10/08 - 10/09 900 46 39 7 56.13 42.38 13.75
Ipsos 10/02 - 10/06 858 47 40 7 55.63 42.88 12.75
NBC/WSJ 10/04 - 10/05 658 49 43 6 53.88 44.63 9.25
Final 25 LV Polls (10/03-11/03)
75%UVA 25%UVA
........................Sample Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
Pollster Date Average 50.84 42.60 8.24 54.64 43.87 10.77
Res2k 10/31 - 11/02 1100 51 44 7 53.63 44.88 8.75
Zogby 11/01 - 11/03 1201 54 43 11 55.13 43.38 11.75
Hotline 10/31 - 11/02 882 50 45 5 52.63 45.88 6.75
Rasmusn 10/31 - 11/02 3000 51 46 5 52.13 46.38 5.75
BattleG 10/27 - 10/30 1000 49 45 4 52.38 46.13 6.25
Marist 11/03 - 11/03 804 52 43 9 54.63 43.88 10.75
FOX 11/02 - 11/03 971 50 43 7 54.13 44.38 9.75
NBC/WSJ 11/01 - 11/02 1011 51 43 8 54.38 44.13 10.25
CNN 10/30 - 11/01 1017 51 43 8 54.38 44.13 10.25
Pew 10/30 - 11/01 2587 49 42 7 54.63 43.88 10.75
CBS 10/28 - 10/31 1005 54 41 13 56.63 41.88 14.75
Marist 10/29 - 10/29 543 50 43 7 54.13 44.38 9.75
FOX 10/28 - 10/29 924 47 44 3 52.63 45.88 6.75
Ipsos 10/23 - 10/27 831 50 45 5 52.63 45.88 6.75
Newswk 10/22 - 10/23 882 53 41 12 56.38 42.13 14.25
CBS/NYT 10/19 - 10/22 771 52 39 13 57.63 40.88 16.75
FOX 10/20 - 10/21 936 49 40 9 56.13 42.38 13.75
Pew 10/16 - 10/19 2382 53 39 14 57.88 40.63 17.25
Ipsos 10/16 - 10/20 773 50 42 8 54.88 43.63 11.25
CNN 10/17 - 10/19 764 51 46 5 52.13 46.38 5.75
Pew 10/12 - 10/14 1191 50 40 10 56.38 42.13 14.25
CBS/NYT 10/10 - 10/13 699 53 39 14 57.88 40.63 17.25
LAT 10/10 - 10/13 1030 50 41 9 55.63 42.88 12.75
ABC/WP 10/09 - 10/11 766 53 43 10 54.88 43.63 11.25
CBS/NYT 10/03 - 10/05 616 48 45 3 52.13 46.38 5.75
Probability Obama Exceeds Given Vote Share for various MoE
(based on 11/2 RV Polls, 5293 Sample MoE = 1.33%)
MoE 1.00% 1.20% 1.33% 1.50% 1.75% 2.00%
Obama Share
2-pty actual
Probability
55% 54.18% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
56% 55.16% 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 96%
57% 56.15% 93% 89% 86% 83% 80% 77%
57.74% 56.87% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
58% 57.13% 31% 34% 35% 37% 39% 40%
59% 58.12% 1% 2% 3% 5% 8% 11%
60% 59.10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match the 2008 recorded vote, but the returning voter mix is impossible)
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 17.1 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.60 0.34
Kerry 37.17% 48.8 89% 9% 2% 43.51 4.35 0.98
Bush 45.83% 60.2 17% 82% 1% 10.34 49.27 0.60
Other 4.00% 5.3 66% 24% 10% 3.48 1.25 0.53
Total 100.0% 131.37 52.87% 45.28% 1.86% 69.46 59.48 2.45
Election Calculator: Scenario 1
(returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.73-Kerry 48.27%)
adjusted for 4.8% voter mortality and 95% turnout)
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.80% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.83 5.51 0.42
Kerry 40.64% 53.4 89% 9% 2% 47.52 4.80 1.07
Bush 42.71% 56.1 17% 82% 1% 9.54 46.01 0.56
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.26 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 55.28% 43.08% 1.64% 72.62 56.59 2.16
Election Calculator: Scenario 2
(returning voter mix based on the 2004 exit poll (Kerry 52-Bush 47%)
adjusted for 4.8% voter mortality and 95% turnout)
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.80% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.83 5.51 0.42
Kerry 43.78% 57.5 89% 9% 2% 51.19 5.18 1.15
Bush 39.57% 52.0 17% 82% 1% 8.84 42.63 0.52
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.26 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 57.54% 40.78% 1.67% 75.59 53.58 2.20
TruthIsAll
Jan.17, 2009
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008LVRVCorrect.htm
This analysis will show why the final likely voter (LV) and registered voter (RV) polls, in conjunction with the National Exit Poll, confirm that Obama won a landslide at least double his 9.5m official vote margin. The mathematical confirmation is not obvious and requires a focus on the structure (and anomalies) in the pre-election and exit polls.
Adjustments must be applied to the final pre-election polls and National Exit Poll to derive an approximation to the True Vote. The following facts should be clearly understood so that the adjustments make sense intuitively.
- RV polls sample registered voters.
- LV polls sample likely but not new registered voters. They are a subset of RV polls.
- Obama’s average 13% RV poll margin was double his LV poll margin.
- From 1992-2004, the Democrats won new voters by a 14% average margin.
- In 2008, there were approximately 20.8m new voters (131.37m less 110.6m returning 2004 voters).
- According to the Final National Exit Poll (NEP) Obama had 71%(14.7m) of 20.8 million new voters.
- Final pre-election polls indicated that approximately 5% of voters were undecided.
- Undecided voters typically break 70-90% for the challenger (Obama).
- Based on the final LV 9-poll average with undecided voters allocated, Obama had 54.0% (59.7 of 110.6m returning voters).
- Combining new and returning voters, Obama won by 74.4 - 54.9m (56.7 - 41.8%)
- Obama had an average 56.9% share in the final 2 RV polls - within 0.2% of the combined LV (returning voter) and new voter share.
- The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) is always “forced to match” the official recorded vote count.
- In 2004, the Final NEP Bush/Gore 43 / 37% voter mix implied there were 52.6m Bush 2000 voters in 2004; he had 50.5m in 2000.
- In 2006, the Bush/Kerry returning voter mix was an implausible 49 / 43%. The Democratic landslide was denied.
- In 2008, the impossible Bush/Kerry 46 / 37% mix implied there were 11m more returning Bush than Kerry voters; Bush won by 3m votes.
- The Election Calculator model confirmed both the LV poll / new voter share and the RV projection
In order to determine the number of returning 2004 and new 2008 voters, voter mortality and turnout rate estimates were applied to the recorded 2004 vote. The calculation indicated that there were approximately 110.6m returning voters. Since 131.37m votes were recorded, there were approximately 20.77m new voters (15.8% of the total). Based on the 71-27% NEP share, Obama won new voters by 14.7-5.6m.
Pollsters usually allocate 60-90% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the challenger. The UVA is a function of the incumbent's job performance. Obama’s UVA was projected at 75%. This was plausible since he was the "challenger". McCain represented an incumbent with a 22% approval rating.
Considering that the LV polls do not include new voters, why not break the projection of the total vote into two parts? Let’s use the average LV poll to calculate the Obama/McCain shares of returning (likely) voters and use the National Exit Poll to calculate their share of new voters.
According to the National Exit Poll (NEP), 13% (17m) of the 2008 electorate consisted of new voters and returning third-party voters 4% (5.2m). But 4% is impossible because only 1.2m third-party votes were recorded in 2004. If the third-party percentage is changed to the true 1%, then applying 3% to new voters raises the percentage to 16%, which means that there were 21m new voters, not 17m as the NEP indicates.
Although this does not have a material effect on the total Obama share (he had 71% of new voters and 66% of other) it does indicate that more weight should be given to pre-election RV polls which included new voters than to the LV polls which did not.
We can approximate the number of returning 2004 voters by applying the 1.2% annual U.S. voter mortality rate (4.8% since 2004) and assuming that 95% of living 2004 voters returned to vote in 2008. and returning third-party voters 4% (5.2m). But 4% is impossible because only 1.2m third-party votes were recorded in 2004. If the third-party percentage is changed to the true 1%, then applying 3% to new voters raises the percentage to 16% - 21m new voters, not 17m as the NEP indicates.
Although this does not have a material effect on the total Obama share (he had 71% of new voters and 66% of other) it does indicate that more weight should be given to the pre-election RV polls, which included new voters, than the LV polls which did not.
In 2004, 122.3m votes were recorded. Applying the 4.8% mortality rate and 95% turnout, 110.6m returned to vote in 2008. Since 131.37m votes were recorded, simple subtraction shows that there were approximately 20.8, new voters.
The National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded 52.87-45.62% recorded vote – but the returning voter mix was impossible (see below).
The 2008 Election Calculator confirmed the above analysis:
Obama had 55.3%, assuming the NEP “Voted in 2004” shares and the 2004 recorded vote (adjusted for mortality and turnout).
Obama had 57.5%, assuming the NEP “Voted in 2004” shares and the 2004 unadjusted exit poll (adjusted for mortality and turnout).
Based on the above logic, this confirms the accuracy of the RV and LV polls:
1. Pre-election LV polls were correct in predicting the likely voter (returning) vote shares.
2. Pre-election RV polls were correct in predicting the registered (returning and new) vote shares.
3. LV polls are misleading; they understate the true Obama margin by 6%.
4. RV polls, adjusted for undecided voters, were accurate.
5. Obama won the True Vote with a 57% share and 22 million vote margin.
[code]
LV and RV Projections of Returning 2004 Voters
Recorded votes
2004 122.30m
2008 131.37
Assumptions
75% UVA to Obama
2004 Voters
4.8% mortality (5.87m)
95% turnout in 2008 (110.61m)
2008 National Exit Poll share of new voters
Obama 71%
McCain 27%
Other 2%
Calculating the 2008 True Vote
(Use final 9 LV polls for returning voters and National Exit Poll for new voters)
Recorded
Total Obama McCain Other
131.37 69.46 59.93 1.98
100% 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
Pre-election Nov. Poll shares
Poll BO JM Other Undecided
LV (9) 51.00% 43.56% 1.50% 3.94%
RV (3) 52.33% 40.00% 1.50% 6.17%
Allocate undecided voters
(75% UVA to Obama)
UVA Obama McCain Other
LV 53.96% 44.55% 1.50%
RV 56.95% 41.55% 1.50%
Calculate returning voters from 2004
2004
Voted 122.29
Died 5.87 (4.8% mortality over 4 years)
Alive 116.42
Assume 95% turnout of 116.42 (LV)
2008
Voted 131.37
Turnout 110.60
------
New 20.77
Vote Obama McCain Other Total
NEP 71.0% 27.0% 2.0% 100%
New 14.75 5.61 0.42 20.77
Return 53.96% 44.55% 1.50% 100.0%
Turnout 59.67 49.27 1.66 110.60
True Vote
Total 74.42 54.87 2.07 131.37
Share 56.65% 41.77% 1.58% 100.00%
Recorded Vote
Total 69.46 59.93 1.98 131.37
Share 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 100.0%
Final 3 RV Polls (11/02)
75%UVA 25%UVA
Poll Poll Sample Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
10RV Date Average 52.33 40.00 12.33 56.96 41.55 15.42
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2847RV 53 40 13 57.125 41.375 15.75
ABC/WP 10/31 - 11/02 2446RV 54 41 13 56.625 41.875 14.75
Pew 10/29 - 11/01 1325RV 50 39 11 57.125 41.375 15.75
LV and RV Poll Averages (10/03-11/03)
75%UVA 25%UVA
Average Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
10 RV 50.30 40.00 10.30 56.45 42.05 14.40
25 LV 50.84 42.60 8.24 54.64 43.87 10.77
Final 10 RV Polls (10/04-11/02)
75%UVA 25%UVA
Poll Poll Sample Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
10 RV Date Average 50.30 40.00 10.30 56.45 42.05 14.40
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2847 53 40 13 57.13 41.38 15.75
ABC/WP 10/31 - 11/02 2446 54 41 13 56.63 41.88 14.75
Pew 10/29 - 11/01 1325 50 39 11 57.13 41.38 15.75
Pew 10/23 - 10/26 1325 52 36 16 59.88 38.63 21.25
NBC/WSJ 10/18 - 10/20 1159 52 42 10 55.38 43.13 12.25
Ipsos 10/09 - 10/13 1036 48 39 9 56.63 41.88 14.75
Newswk 10/08 - 10/09 1035 52 41 11 56.13 42.38 13.75
FOX 10/08 - 10/09 900 46 39 7 56.13 42.38 13.75
Ipsos 10/02 - 10/06 858 47 40 7 55.63 42.88 12.75
NBC/WSJ 10/04 - 10/05 658 49 43 6 53.88 44.63 9.25
Final 25 LV Polls (10/03-11/03)
75%UVA 25%UVA
........................Sample Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
Pollster Date Average 50.84 42.60 8.24 54.64 43.87 10.77
Res2k 10/31 - 11/02 1100 51 44 7 53.63 44.88 8.75
Zogby 11/01 - 11/03 1201 54 43 11 55.13 43.38 11.75
Hotline 10/31 - 11/02 882 50 45 5 52.63 45.88 6.75
Rasmusn 10/31 - 11/02 3000 51 46 5 52.13 46.38 5.75
BattleG 10/27 - 10/30 1000 49 45 4 52.38 46.13 6.25
Marist 11/03 - 11/03 804 52 43 9 54.63 43.88 10.75
FOX 11/02 - 11/03 971 50 43 7 54.13 44.38 9.75
NBC/WSJ 11/01 - 11/02 1011 51 43 8 54.38 44.13 10.25
CNN 10/30 - 11/01 1017 51 43 8 54.38 44.13 10.25
Pew 10/30 - 11/01 2587 49 42 7 54.63 43.88 10.75
CBS 10/28 - 10/31 1005 54 41 13 56.63 41.88 14.75
Marist 10/29 - 10/29 543 50 43 7 54.13 44.38 9.75
FOX 10/28 - 10/29 924 47 44 3 52.63 45.88 6.75
Ipsos 10/23 - 10/27 831 50 45 5 52.63 45.88 6.75
Newswk 10/22 - 10/23 882 53 41 12 56.38 42.13 14.25
CBS/NYT 10/19 - 10/22 771 52 39 13 57.63 40.88 16.75
FOX 10/20 - 10/21 936 49 40 9 56.13 42.38 13.75
Pew 10/16 - 10/19 2382 53 39 14 57.88 40.63 17.25
Ipsos 10/16 - 10/20 773 50 42 8 54.88 43.63 11.25
CNN 10/17 - 10/19 764 51 46 5 52.13 46.38 5.75
Pew 10/12 - 10/14 1191 50 40 10 56.38 42.13 14.25
CBS/NYT 10/10 - 10/13 699 53 39 14 57.88 40.63 17.25
LAT 10/10 - 10/13 1030 50 41 9 55.63 42.88 12.75
ABC/WP 10/09 - 10/11 766 53 43 10 54.88 43.63 11.25
CBS/NYT 10/03 - 10/05 616 48 45 3 52.13 46.38 5.75
Probability Obama Exceeds Given Vote Share for various MoE
(based on 11/2 RV Polls, 5293 Sample MoE = 1.33%)
MoE 1.00% 1.20% 1.33% 1.50% 1.75% 2.00%
Obama Share
2-pty actual
Probability
55% 54.18% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
56% 55.16% 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 96%
57% 56.15% 93% 89% 86% 83% 80% 77%
57.74% 56.87% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
58% 57.13% 31% 34% 35% 37% 39% 40%
59% 58.12% 1% 2% 3% 5% 8% 11%
60% 59.10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match the 2008 recorded vote, but the returning voter mix is impossible)
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 17.1 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.60 0.34
Kerry 37.17% 48.8 89% 9% 2% 43.51 4.35 0.98
Bush 45.83% 60.2 17% 82% 1% 10.34 49.27 0.60
Other 4.00% 5.3 66% 24% 10% 3.48 1.25 0.53
Total 100.0% 131.37 52.87% 45.28% 1.86% 69.46 59.48 2.45
Election Calculator: Scenario 1
(returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.73-Kerry 48.27%)
adjusted for 4.8% voter mortality and 95% turnout)
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.80% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.83 5.51 0.42
Kerry 40.64% 53.4 89% 9% 2% 47.52 4.80 1.07
Bush 42.71% 56.1 17% 82% 1% 9.54 46.01 0.56
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.26 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 55.28% 43.08% 1.64% 72.62 56.59 2.16
Election Calculator: Scenario 2
(returning voter mix based on the 2004 exit poll (Kerry 52-Bush 47%)
adjusted for 4.8% voter mortality and 95% turnout)
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.80% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.83 5.51 0.42
Kerry 43.78% 57.5 89% 9% 2% 51.19 5.18 1.15
Bush 39.57% 52.0 17% 82% 1% 8.84 42.63 0.52
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.26 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 57.54% 40.78% 1.67% 75.59 53.58 2.20