TruthIsAll
05-17-2009, 06:58 PM
TruthIsAll
May 17,2009
It's all here.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/19882008TrueVoteMath.htm
For each election from 1988, an analytical data warehouse of recorded state votes, exit polls and True Vote calculations. The True Vote is based on a feasible prior election returning voter mix and the National Exit Poll Vote shares. The rationale for calculating the returning voter mix is based on two facts that are ignored by the media.
Fact 1:
There must be fewer returning voters from the prior election voting in the current election.
About 5% die and another 2-10% don't bother to vote depending on the level of interest. This should be obvious, but the fact is that the Final National Exit Poll, which is ALWAYS forced to match the recorded vote, has consistently adjusted the voter mix to include millions more returning Bush voters from the prior election than were alive to vote in the current.
Fact 2:
In every election, millions of votes are never counted. The Census provides very accurate estimates of total votes cast; the margin of error is 0.30%.
There were 10.6 million net uncounted votes in 1988, 9.4 million in 1992, 5.4 million in 2000 and 3.4 million in 2004. Approximately 70-80% are Democratic. In every election, the Republican margin is inflated as a result. The recent declining trend in uncounted votes is due to the advent of unverifiable touch screen voting machines and central tabulators owned and operated by Republicans.
But it's even worse than that since "net uncounted votes" means uncounted votes net of stuffed ballots. For example, if there are 5 million uncounted votes and 1 million stuffed ballots, the net is 4 million. In this case, the Democrats lose 70-80% of 5 million uncounted votes, not 4 million. But what about the 1 million stuffed ballots? Are they Democratic or Republican? No further questions.
But it’s even worse. Millions of voters (the vast majority Democratic) are disenfranchised and never get to the polls. Therefore, the calculated True Democratic vote shares are conservative.
The Bottom Line:
Our so-called democracy is a monumental myth and has been one for a very long time. The Democrats would always win if the elections were fair. So the obvious question is: why haven't they made election fraud an issue? Why do they keep silent when it has been killing them in every election? Landslides were denied in 2006 and 2008. Elections were stolen in 2000 and 2004 and possibly in 1988. It’s a Bush tradition, after all.
Democratic politicians didn’t raise a peep when elections were stolen from patriots Max Cleland in 2002 and Tammy Duckworth in 2006 who lost two or three limbs on the battlefield. And there are many others.
Democrats don't fight like Republicans do for their candidates. In fact, they told Duckworth to concede early - even when the fraud was apparent. Could it be that the Democrat leadership lets the GOP to win in order to mute the progressive, democratic wing of the party? What other explanation could there be?
[code]
1988 True Vote
Voted National
1984 Mix Dukakis Bush Other Dukakis Bush Other Total
DNV 10.07% 47% 51% 2% 4,839 5,251 206 10,296
Mondale 39.68% 92% 7% 1% 37,323 2,840 406 40,569
Reagan 50.15% 19% 80% 1% 9,742 41,020 513 51,275
Other 0.10% 49% 50% 1% 52 53 1 106
True 312 EV 50.82% 48.08% 1.10% 51,957 49,164 1,125 102,247
Recorded 104 EV 45.65% 53.37% 0.98% 41,809 48,887 899 91,595
Deviation 5.17% -5.29% 0.12% 10,148 277 227 10,652
ExitPoll 205 EV 46.72% 52.31% 0.97% 42,790 47,912 893 91,595
Deviation 4.10% -4.22% 0.13% 9,167 1,252 233 10,652
1992 True Vote
Voted National
1988 Mix Clinton Bush Other Clinton Bush Other Total
DNV 16.32% 46% 25% 29% 8,548 4,646 5,389 18,583
Dukakis 41.61% 83% 5% 12% 39,324 2,369 5,685 47,378
Bush 41.17% 21% 59% 20% 9,844 27,658 9,375 46,877
Other 0.90% 32% 30% 38% 329 308 390 1,027
True 521 EV 50.98% 30.72% 18.30% 58,045 34,981 20,840 113,866
Recorded 366 EV 43.01% 37.45% 19.54% 44,910 39,105 20,410 104,424
Deviation 7.97% -6.73% -1.24% 13,135 -4,124 431 9,442
ExitPoll 432 EV 45.71% 34.83% 19.46% 47,732 36,372 20,320 104,424
Deviation 5.27% -4.11% -1.16% 10,313 -1,392 521 9,442
1996 True Vote
Voted National
1992 Mix Clinton Dole Other Clinton Dole Other Total
DNV 5.95% 55% 33% 12% 3,436 2,061 750 6,246
Clinton 43.64% 85% 9% 6% 38,950 4,124 2,749 45,823
Bush 30.69% 13% 82% 5% 4,190 26,427 1,611 32,227
Other 19.73% 32% 42% 26% 6,629 8,701 5,386 20,716
True 437 EV 50.66% 39.34% 10.00% 53,204 41,313 10,496 105,013
Recorded 405 EV 49.23% 40.72% 10.05% 47,400 39,199 9,677 96,275
Deviation 1.43% -1.37% -0.06% 5,804 2,114 820 8,738
ExitPoll 376 EV 50.15% 39.85% 10.00% 48,283 38,363 9,629 96,275
Deviation 0.51% -0.51% -0.01% 4,921 2,949 867 8,738
2000 True Vote
Voted National
1996 Mix Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other Total
DNV 12.72% 52% 43% 5% 7,331 6,062 705 14,098
Clinton 45.16% 82% 15% 3% 41,042 7,508 1,502 50,051
Dole 33.22% 7% 91% 2% 2,577 33,503 736 36,816
Other 8.90% 45% 43% 12% 4,437 4,240 1,183 9,860
True 344 EV 49.98% 46.30% 3.72% 55,387 51,312 4,126 110,825
Recorded 260 EV 48.38% 47.87% 3.75% 51,004 50,460 3,953 105,417
Deviation 1.59% -1.57% -0.03% 4,383 852 173 5,408
ExitPoll 274 EV 49.28% 47.01% 3.71% 51,952 49,558 3,907 105,417
Deviation 0.69% -0.71% 0.02% 3,434 1,754 219 5,408
2004 True Vote
Voted National
2000 Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
DNV 17.83% 57% 41% 2% 12,777 9,190 448 22,415
Gore 41.55% 91% 8% 1% 47,547 4,180 522 52,249
Bush 37.54% 10% 90% 0% 4,720 42,478 0 47,198
Other 3.08% 64% 17% 19% 2,480 659 736 3,875
True 397 EV 53.70% 44.94% 1.36% 67,524 56,506 1,707 125,737
Recorded 252 EV 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 59,028 62,041 1,224 122,294
Deviation 5.43% -5.79% 0.36% 8,495 -5,534 482 3,443
ExitPoll 338 EV 51.92% 47.08% 1.00% 63,492 57,576 1,225 122,294
Deviation 1.78% -2.14% 0.36% 4,031 -1,070 482 3,443
2008 True Vote
Voted National
2004 Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other Total
DNV 12.39% 73% 27% 0% 11,970 4,427 0 16,397
Kerry 46.06% 89% 9% 2% 54,238 5,485 1,219 60,942
Bush 40.64% 17% 82% 1% 9,140 44,087 538 53,765
Other 0.91% 66% 26% 8% 795 313 96 1,205
True 414 EV 57.55% 41.05% 1.40% 76,143 54,312 1,853 132,308
Recorded 365 EV 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69,457 59,935 1,978 131,370
Deviation 4.68% -4.57% -0.10% 6,686 -5,623 -125 938
Exit Poll na 52.88% 45.61% 1.51% 69,475 59,917 1,979 131,370
Deviation 4.67% -4.56% -0.11% 6,668 -5,604 -126 938
Note: Electoral vote calculations are based on current state electoral votes; several state EVs have changed over the past few elections. Therefore, the Democratic EV for 1984-2000 is lower than the historical value.
May 17,2009
It's all here.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/19882008TrueVoteMath.htm
For each election from 1988, an analytical data warehouse of recorded state votes, exit polls and True Vote calculations. The True Vote is based on a feasible prior election returning voter mix and the National Exit Poll Vote shares. The rationale for calculating the returning voter mix is based on two facts that are ignored by the media.
Fact 1:
There must be fewer returning voters from the prior election voting in the current election.
About 5% die and another 2-10% don't bother to vote depending on the level of interest. This should be obvious, but the fact is that the Final National Exit Poll, which is ALWAYS forced to match the recorded vote, has consistently adjusted the voter mix to include millions more returning Bush voters from the prior election than were alive to vote in the current.
Fact 2:
In every election, millions of votes are never counted. The Census provides very accurate estimates of total votes cast; the margin of error is 0.30%.
There were 10.6 million net uncounted votes in 1988, 9.4 million in 1992, 5.4 million in 2000 and 3.4 million in 2004. Approximately 70-80% are Democratic. In every election, the Republican margin is inflated as a result. The recent declining trend in uncounted votes is due to the advent of unverifiable touch screen voting machines and central tabulators owned and operated by Republicans.
But it's even worse than that since "net uncounted votes" means uncounted votes net of stuffed ballots. For example, if there are 5 million uncounted votes and 1 million stuffed ballots, the net is 4 million. In this case, the Democrats lose 70-80% of 5 million uncounted votes, not 4 million. But what about the 1 million stuffed ballots? Are they Democratic or Republican? No further questions.
But it’s even worse. Millions of voters (the vast majority Democratic) are disenfranchised and never get to the polls. Therefore, the calculated True Democratic vote shares are conservative.
The Bottom Line:
Our so-called democracy is a monumental myth and has been one for a very long time. The Democrats would always win if the elections were fair. So the obvious question is: why haven't they made election fraud an issue? Why do they keep silent when it has been killing them in every election? Landslides were denied in 2006 and 2008. Elections were stolen in 2000 and 2004 and possibly in 1988. It’s a Bush tradition, after all.
Democratic politicians didn’t raise a peep when elections were stolen from patriots Max Cleland in 2002 and Tammy Duckworth in 2006 who lost two or three limbs on the battlefield. And there are many others.
Democrats don't fight like Republicans do for their candidates. In fact, they told Duckworth to concede early - even when the fraud was apparent. Could it be that the Democrat leadership lets the GOP to win in order to mute the progressive, democratic wing of the party? What other explanation could there be?
[code]
1988 True Vote
Voted National
1984 Mix Dukakis Bush Other Dukakis Bush Other Total
DNV 10.07% 47% 51% 2% 4,839 5,251 206 10,296
Mondale 39.68% 92% 7% 1% 37,323 2,840 406 40,569
Reagan 50.15% 19% 80% 1% 9,742 41,020 513 51,275
Other 0.10% 49% 50% 1% 52 53 1 106
True 312 EV 50.82% 48.08% 1.10% 51,957 49,164 1,125 102,247
Recorded 104 EV 45.65% 53.37% 0.98% 41,809 48,887 899 91,595
Deviation 5.17% -5.29% 0.12% 10,148 277 227 10,652
ExitPoll 205 EV 46.72% 52.31% 0.97% 42,790 47,912 893 91,595
Deviation 4.10% -4.22% 0.13% 9,167 1,252 233 10,652
1992 True Vote
Voted National
1988 Mix Clinton Bush Other Clinton Bush Other Total
DNV 16.32% 46% 25% 29% 8,548 4,646 5,389 18,583
Dukakis 41.61% 83% 5% 12% 39,324 2,369 5,685 47,378
Bush 41.17% 21% 59% 20% 9,844 27,658 9,375 46,877
Other 0.90% 32% 30% 38% 329 308 390 1,027
True 521 EV 50.98% 30.72% 18.30% 58,045 34,981 20,840 113,866
Recorded 366 EV 43.01% 37.45% 19.54% 44,910 39,105 20,410 104,424
Deviation 7.97% -6.73% -1.24% 13,135 -4,124 431 9,442
ExitPoll 432 EV 45.71% 34.83% 19.46% 47,732 36,372 20,320 104,424
Deviation 5.27% -4.11% -1.16% 10,313 -1,392 521 9,442
1996 True Vote
Voted National
1992 Mix Clinton Dole Other Clinton Dole Other Total
DNV 5.95% 55% 33% 12% 3,436 2,061 750 6,246
Clinton 43.64% 85% 9% 6% 38,950 4,124 2,749 45,823
Bush 30.69% 13% 82% 5% 4,190 26,427 1,611 32,227
Other 19.73% 32% 42% 26% 6,629 8,701 5,386 20,716
True 437 EV 50.66% 39.34% 10.00% 53,204 41,313 10,496 105,013
Recorded 405 EV 49.23% 40.72% 10.05% 47,400 39,199 9,677 96,275
Deviation 1.43% -1.37% -0.06% 5,804 2,114 820 8,738
ExitPoll 376 EV 50.15% 39.85% 10.00% 48,283 38,363 9,629 96,275
Deviation 0.51% -0.51% -0.01% 4,921 2,949 867 8,738
2000 True Vote
Voted National
1996 Mix Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other Total
DNV 12.72% 52% 43% 5% 7,331 6,062 705 14,098
Clinton 45.16% 82% 15% 3% 41,042 7,508 1,502 50,051
Dole 33.22% 7% 91% 2% 2,577 33,503 736 36,816
Other 8.90% 45% 43% 12% 4,437 4,240 1,183 9,860
True 344 EV 49.98% 46.30% 3.72% 55,387 51,312 4,126 110,825
Recorded 260 EV 48.38% 47.87% 3.75% 51,004 50,460 3,953 105,417
Deviation 1.59% -1.57% -0.03% 4,383 852 173 5,408
ExitPoll 274 EV 49.28% 47.01% 3.71% 51,952 49,558 3,907 105,417
Deviation 0.69% -0.71% 0.02% 3,434 1,754 219 5,408
2004 True Vote
Voted National
2000 Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
DNV 17.83% 57% 41% 2% 12,777 9,190 448 22,415
Gore 41.55% 91% 8% 1% 47,547 4,180 522 52,249
Bush 37.54% 10% 90% 0% 4,720 42,478 0 47,198
Other 3.08% 64% 17% 19% 2,480 659 736 3,875
True 397 EV 53.70% 44.94% 1.36% 67,524 56,506 1,707 125,737
Recorded 252 EV 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 59,028 62,041 1,224 122,294
Deviation 5.43% -5.79% 0.36% 8,495 -5,534 482 3,443
ExitPoll 338 EV 51.92% 47.08% 1.00% 63,492 57,576 1,225 122,294
Deviation 1.78% -2.14% 0.36% 4,031 -1,070 482 3,443
2008 True Vote
Voted National
2004 Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other Total
DNV 12.39% 73% 27% 0% 11,970 4,427 0 16,397
Kerry 46.06% 89% 9% 2% 54,238 5,485 1,219 60,942
Bush 40.64% 17% 82% 1% 9,140 44,087 538 53,765
Other 0.91% 66% 26% 8% 795 313 96 1,205
True 414 EV 57.55% 41.05% 1.40% 76,143 54,312 1,853 132,308
Recorded 365 EV 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69,457 59,935 1,978 131,370
Deviation 4.68% -4.57% -0.10% 6,686 -5,623 -125 938
Exit Poll na 52.88% 45.61% 1.51% 69,475 59,917 1,979 131,370
Deviation 4.67% -4.56% -0.11% 6,668 -5,604 -126 938
Note: Electoral vote calculations are based on current state electoral votes; several state EVs have changed over the past few elections. Therefore, the Democratic EV for 1984-2000 is lower than the historical value.