Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Nov 19, 2024 6:14 pm

Kursk, North Korean troops and Western missiles
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/19/2024

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Since Ukraine surprised Russia with a well-organised and effective attack on Russian territory last August, the priorities of both sides in the conflict have become clear. To Kiev’s chagrin, Moscow’s priority has remained the Donbass front, the main front in this war since its outbreak in 2014 and where the final outcome of the conflict is really at stake. “The incursion in Kursk was intended to preempt a Russian plan to invade Sumy province to create a “buffer zone” in northern Ukraine and draw Russian forces away from the front that is constantly advancing in Donetsk province, the Ukrainian military reported,” The Kyiv Independent continues to affirm three months later , always ready to accept the official line without qualification. Despite what Zelensky and Syrsky promised, the situation in Kursk did not change the plans of the Russian command, which reacted with unusual stoicism, without rushing or diverting an excessive number of troops, with the main objective of combining the continuation of the offensive in Donbass with the defence of Kursk and the future and progressive recovery of the lost territory in Russian territory.

With its offensive into Russia, Ukraine wanted to show its ability to beat Moscow on its own territory, an attempt to insist that the war was winnable. Those needs have grown progressively as the costs of the war have piled up and doubts about the viability of continuing to fight until the uncertain final victory have increased. For a time, Kursk swept away all that war fatigue and the uncertainty of some of kyiv's allies about Ukraine's ability to achieve its objective. However, the rapid advance of Ukrainian troops was halted and the battle consolidated into trench warfare similar to that being fought on the rest of the front. The breakthrough into Russia delayed for months negotiations for a partial ceasefire to prevent attacks on energy infrastructure (which has apparently been resumed this November, so far without any success) and further stretched a front that already stretched for hundreds of kilometers and requires large numbers of soldiers to defend.

The Kursk offensive is Ukraine's only territorial success since the minimal gains of its 2023 counteroffensive, where kyiv was only able to capture a handful of small, irrelevant towns that, over time and with the change of trend on the front, Russia has already recovered. With the exception of Suya, where the gas pipeline is located that, despite the war, continues to transport Russian gas to the European Union through Ukraine - and which has so far been protected by both sides, interested in its continued operation - kyiv has not managed to capture any strategic objective and Russia has managed to return part of the lost territory under its control. However, the presence of Ukrainian troops on Russian soil poses a constant threat of future incursions or attempts to advance in other directions, since Kursk has become the priority front for the Zelensky government.

This is confirmed by the comments of the commanders on the ground, who admit that in this sector of the front there is no shortage of ammunition or soldiers and that the relief of troops occurs regularly and, unlike in Donbass, often. Troops fighting between Ugledar and Kurajovo or south of Selidovo are being sacrificed for the sake of the Russian adventure of Zelensky and Syrsky, who have also updated the bonuses that soldiers will receive for participating in it. “Ukrainian servicemen operating in Russia during martial law will receive an additional monthly payment of 100,000 hryvnias ($2,400), proportional to the time they spend there on combat missions. They will also receive a one-time payment of 70,000 hryvnias ($1,700) for every 30 days of combat, calculated cumulatively. Soldiers and officers of the State Emergency Service, the Special Operations Department of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau and police officers on missions in Russia will also receive the 100,000 hryvnia ($2,400) bonus. An additional 100,000 hryvnia ($2,400) will be paid to soldiers wounded while serving in Russia. In the event of a death during a combat mission in Russia, the soldier’s family will receive a one-time payment of 15 million hryvnia ($363,000),” The Kyiv Independent wrote last week, pointing out significant amounts given the country’s massive impoverishment and lack of funds for basic services. This situation has not bothered those who, with their funding, support the Ukrainian state and make possible the payment of salaries that most of the population can barely dream of.

Maintaining a presence in Kursk now that Russia is preparing an offensive to progressively recover its territory and prevent future incursions has a triple objective: to show that Ukraine is capable of defeating Russia and thus justify the request for more weapons and less diplomacy; to create instability in the Russian Federation by making the population believe that the Kremlin cannot protect it and to have a card - perhaps a bargaining chip - in case it is forced to accept the start of negotiations. The idea of ​​getting Ukraine to the negotiating table in a position of strength is the most repeated one today and is agreed upon by both European capitals and the current and future US administration. Peace through force has become the great motto of this war that all parties know kyiv cannot win according to its narrow definition of victory (recovery of territorial integrity according to its 1991 borders, accession to NATO, serious reprisals for Russia). In this context, Orejov, Kurajovo and even Kupiansk lose importance and the main task is to help kyiv undermine the Russian effort in Kursk and allow Ukraine to retain as much territory as possible in that region.

To do so, and now that the electoral factor has disappeared in the United States, it is necessary to continue with the progressive escalation that has always been the modus operandi of this war. “The White House refused for months to grant a request for weapons from Ukraine, fearing that it would mean an escalation. Kiev loudly denounced the refusal, and just when the request seemed to be shelved, the Biden administration approved it. The Ukrainian requests for HIMARS, Abrams tanks, F16s… all followed a similar pattern of denial and evasion, and then concession, almost at the moment when it was too late,” wrote CNN yesterday , which, despite welcoming the news, still has certain doubts about its effectiveness. The limited number of ATACMS missiles available to Ukraine - which has already been warned of the limits of Western arsenals and may never be able to acquire the quantities of ammunition it hopes to receive for its ambitious bombing plans in Russia - the possibility that the drones already used by kyiv on Russian territory will be more useful and the provocation that authorising the attacks represents are the three arguments listed by the American television channel.

Perhaps because the move was seen as inevitable and the only question was when it would happen, the Russian reaction has been limited. Military bloggers such as Rybar yesterday picked up on what was written several months ago, when the decision seemed imminent, and insisted on the defence aspects that Russia must take into account. However, much of the press was limited to repeating the headlines of the Western press, which highlights that even Pentagon officials do not believe that permission to use ATACMS in Kursk will change the course of the war. However, for a Biden who no longer has anything to lose, the start of the bombings in Russia means the possibility of increasing the costs of the war for Moscow and perhaps a propaganda image of the suffering of the soldiers of one of his favourite enemies of the last century, the People's Republic of Korea, which suffered first-hand the shock and fear of the United States. If the decision of the White House has not been agreed with Donald Trump's transition team, the measure is a way of conditioning the start of the new administration.

On September 12, Vladimir Putin said that taking the decision to allow Ukraine to use Western missiles on Russian territory “will mean nothing less than the direct involvement of NATO countries, the United States and European countries in the war in Ukraine. This direct involvement will, of course, significantly alter the very nature of this conflict.” His words yesterday, somewhat more moderate since Russia does not want a direct war with the Alliance, were aimed in the same direction. The Russian president insisted that a Ukrainian attack with Western missiles would change the nature of the war, since – as Olaf Scholz revealed months ago in relation to the British Storm Shadow and French Scalp – Ukraine needs Western intelligence and personnel on the ground to operate these systems.

The policy change now is more a response to the gravity of the situation in Ukraine in several areas of the front and the need to stop Russian advances than to the 10,000 North Korean troops that Western intelligence says will fight at Kursk but that no one has yet seen. Still, as The New York Times reported in the article that broke the news, which has not yet been made official, defending against North Korean troops is one of the arguments being used. "American officials said the missiles were likely to be deployed, at least initially, against combined Russian and North Korean troops in territory that Ukraine has captured in the Kursk region of southern Russia. The addition this fall of up to 10,000 North Korean troops to Moscow's war effort has alarmed the United States and European nations, who see it as expanding the war by directly involving Russian allies in the ground combat. The North Korean presence appeared to be what persuaded the White House to change its stance on long-range missiles after months of resistance,” the article wrote, without bothering to explain that these troops from the People’s Republic of Korea would be on Russian territory according to its internationally recognized borders, a detail apparently unimportant when it comes to exaggerating the danger posed by this supposed contingent in the “internationalization” of a war that was born already internationalized.

Interestingly, in the last few hours, the New York media has been one of the targets of the Ukrainian discourse, upset with the article. Stating that these are just words and that the missiles will do the talking, the Ukrainian president made the news official on Sunday evening. However, yesterday, Mikhail Podolyak wrote: “A bit strange… The main news in the international media was the anonymous reports that the White House [allegedly] allowed Ukraine to use American missiles [not all of them] to attack the territory of the Russian Federation [or just the Kursk region]. Again, words, not actions.” The reason for the anger of the adviser to the Office of the President was that the leak had diminished the relevance of the big headlines with which, in the morning, the Western media announced one of the most important Russian air strikes of the war. Ukraine quickly reacted to the bombing by demanding to use the language of force and pleading for more weapons. Despite getting what it wanted, kyiv has been angered by the timing of the press leak, which did not allow enough time for the Ukrainian government to fully exploit the Russian missiles.

“Such attacks with hundreds of missiles on Ukraine are no longer considered an escalation by the international community… because they have become routine. 2024, #Europe, genocide. Does anyone else remember the slogan “Never again”?” wrote Podolyak yesterday, again appropriating an anti-Holocaust slogan and implicitly insisting that Russia is committing genocide. According to UN data published last weekend, among the 12,162 civilian deaths recorded, 659 are minors. Last February, UNICEF estimated that 17,000 Palestinian minors were in Gaza due to attacks by Israel, a country that Ukraine continues to support and which it defends against more credible accusations of genocide. The discourse does not need proven facts but rather feelings and the ability to impose the narrative in the press. Ukraine cannot therefore afford to see Russian attacks replaced in the headlines, even if only by unofficial announcements of the granting of the permit that kyiv has been begging for for months.

Following the publication of the report in The New York Times , Le Figaro announced that France and the United Kingdom had also granted permission to use their missiles against targets on Russian territory. The Times quickly contradicted this report, which was subsequently deleted by the French newspaper. Despite having acted as a lobby group for Joe Biden to get Washington to lift the veto, Starmer and Macron cannot independently announce that they are granting Kiev permission to use the Storm Shadow or Scalp. Their American-made components mean that the White House must give its approval.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/11/19/kursk ... identales/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of repelling the attempted invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the territory of the Russian Federation in the Kursk region (as of November 19, 2024)

— Units of the North group of forces defeated formations of the 41st , 44th , 47th and 115th mechanized, 82nd and 95th airborne assault brigades, the 36th marine brigade, the 117th and 129th territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Darino, Zeleny Shlyakh, Lebedevka, Leonidovo, Nizhny Klin and Novoivanovka. — Strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation , artillery fire hit enemy manpower and equipment in the areas of the settlements of Bogdanovka, Dar'ino, Martynovka, Mirny, Nikolaevka, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Novaya Sorochina, Plekhovo, Sverdlikovo, Staraya Sorochina and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, as well as Basovka and Zhuravka in the Sumy region. Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 320 servicemen, two tanks, one of them a Leopard 2 made in Germany, a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle made in the USA, an armored personnel carrier, 15 combat armored vehicles, 10 cars, three self-propelled artillery units and an electronic warfare station. Six Ukrainian servicemen surrendered. — In total, during the military operations in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 33,990 servicemen, 215 tanks, 141 infantry fighting vehicles, 116 armored personnel carriers, 1,190 armored combat vehicles, 968 cars, 294 artillery pieces, 40 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including HIMARS and six MLRS made in the USA, 13 anti-aircraft missile system launchers, seven transport and loading vehicles, 67 electronic warfare stations, 13 counter-battery radars, four air defense radars, 27 units of engineering and other equipment, including 13 engineering vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit , and six armored repair and recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle.

***

Colonelcassad
⚡️ Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 19 November 2024)

— Units of the North group of forces in the Kharkiv direction defeated the formations of the 57th motorized infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 13th brigade of the National Guard and the 5th border detachment of the Border Service of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Vovchansk, Glubokoe and Izbitskoye in the Kharkiv region. Two counterattacks of the enemy assault groups were repelled.

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 135 servicemen, a tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, four combat armored vehicles, a 122-mm howitzer D-30 and an electronic warfare station.

— Units of the West group of forces improved their tactical position. The manpower and equipment of the 14th, 28th and 115th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Kupyansk, Zagryzovo and Kruglyakovka in the Kharkiv region. Three counterattacks by units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been repelled.

The enemy lost up to 510 servicemen, four vehicles, a 122-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Gvozdika", a 105-mm howitzer M101 made in the USA and an electronic warfare station "Anklav-N".

- Units of the "Southern" group of forces improved the situation along the forward edge. Formations of the 24th, 33rd, 54th mechanized, 79th airborne assault, 46th airmobile and 10th mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Yantarnoye, Antonovka, Dachnoye, Uspenovka and Kurakhovo of the Donetsk People's Republic. A counterattack by an assault group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was repelled.

The enemy's losses amounted to 550 servicemen, a tank, three M113 armored personnel carriers made in the USA, an armored combat vehicle, eight cars, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Krab" made in Poland, two 122-mm howitzers D-30 and four 105-mm guns M119 made in the USA. The electronic warfare station "Nota" was destroyed.

- Units of the "Center" group of forces as a result of active offensive actions liberated the settlement of Novoselydivka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The manpower and equipment of the 53rd, 100th, 117th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 38th Marine Brigade, the 12th and 14th National Guard Brigades were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Leonidovka, Belitskoye, Dzerzhinsk, Mirolyubovka, Grodovka and Novoekonomicheskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic. Six counterattacks by enemy assault groups were repelled.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 310 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, three cars, a 152-mm D-20 gun, a 122-mm D-30 howitzer, and a 100-mm Rapira anti-tank gun.

— Units of the "East" group of forces have taken up more advantageous lines and positions. The formations of the 58th motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 101st, 110th, 120th, 123rd and 129th territorial defense brigades were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Razliv, Novosyolka, Makarovka, Ulakly, Velyka Novosyolka of the Donetsk People's Republic and Temirovka of the Zaporizhia region. A counterattack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces unit was repelled.

The enemy's losses amounted to 140 servicemen, a Leopard tank made in Germany, two combat armored vehicles, seven cars, two 155-mm M198 howitzers made in the USA, and a 122-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Gvozdika". A field ammunition depot was destroyed.

— Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 31st, 118th mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 3rd territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Malaya Tokmachka and Novoandriyevka in the Zaporizhia region. The

Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 65 servicemen, eleven vehicles, a 152-mm D-20 gun, and an Anklav-N electronic warfare station. A field ammunition depot was destroyed.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Krynki. Homeland of Ukrainian fear
November 19, 18:07

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On the details of last year's operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Dnieper

A Ukrainian publication published an article about last year's operation to land the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the left bank of the Dnieper, the fighting in the village of Krynki, and the subsequent retreat after more than six months of clashes. The article contains some interesting details:

The main inspiration for the landing was Great Britain, which oversaw the creation of the Ukrainian Marine Corps and called for it to be used "for its intended purpose, and not in the fields near Donetsk." At the same time, London demanded that the crossing of the Dnieper begin immediately after the blowing up of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station in May 2023.

The minimum task was to create and expand a bridgehead with access to the M-14 highway, and the maximum was access to the Crimean Isthmus. All four brigades of the Marine Corps were used for this, and the calculation was based on the fact that the Russian Armed Forces did not have a second line of defense.

During the landing, the village of Krynki was captured, but insufficient planning, a shortage of boats and electronic warfare equipment led to serious logistical difficulties. In other areas, the situation was even worse: in the Poima area, the 36th separate marine brigade was hit by Iskanders, with losses amounting to 90 people killed and wounded.

Although initially high hopes were placed on the operation until the course of hostilities changed, by the beginning of 2024, being on a poorly supplied bridgehead had demotivated the personnel. The situation was worsened by the transfer of reinforcements from the Airborne Forces by the Russian Armed Forces and bombing strikes that turned the area into a "lunar landscape".

As a result, in July, the Ukrainian Armed Forces completely left Krynki, but this decision was at least two months late and only led to unnecessary losses. Due to strikes on watercraft, they sometimes had to leave by swimming.

Although this was certainly not an "easy walk" for the Russian Armed Forces, the enemy did not achieve a single goal - the participants from the Ukrainian Armed Forces note that as a result, they only managed to pull the Russian Armed Forces to the area at the cost of considerable losses of "very valuable people". At the same time, the same marine brigades of the so-called Ukraine could have been rationally used in the same Donbas.

And from a more global point of view, the operation is a clear example of how Great Britain is waging a war with someone else's hands. And all the costs are borne by the so-called Ukraine, which is losing its operational reserve in order to satisfy the demands of the sponsors.

@rybar - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9505448.html

Google Translator

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Why Putin should ignore Biden’s pathetic ATACMS provocation

Finian Cunningham

November 18, 2024

The provocative gesture is more symbolic than a substantive threat. Russia should ignore it and focus on demolishing the NATO proxy regime in Kiev.

As provocations go, the latest by President Joe Biden to permit the use of long-range missile strikes on Russia is certainly audacious. But, ultimately, in practice, it is a pathetic gesture by a lame-duck president that will have no impact on Russia’s anticipated military victory against the NATO-armed Kiev regime.

Biden’s reported decision is a desperate last-bid gamble to incite an escalation with Russia and to sabotage incoming plans by President-elect Trump to end the conflict in Ukraine. Biden’s move is reckless, reprehensible, and odious. But it should not be given any credibility as a serious threat.

Russia would be best to ignore it. Of course, Russia has to defend itself against any increased potential threat to its territory that such weapons may pose. Nevertheless, Moscow should continue exercising the strategic restraint that President Putin is renowned for, and not retaliate over the provocation.

Understandably, Russian politicians and media have reacted furiously to U.S. media reports that Biden gave the Ukrainian military the green light to deploy American-made ATACMS for striking deep into Russian territory. The ground-launched Mach-3 supersonic missiles have a range of up to 300 kilometers.

The audacity and arrogance of the American ruling class knows no bounds. It has sanctioned Russia to the hilt (to no avail mind you), it has weaponized a NeoNazi regime in Kiev, it has killed civilians in the Russian territory of Crimea already with ATACMS, and so on. Now Biden is ramping up the assault capability deep into Russia.

Two months ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that if the U.S. took such a move, then it would dramatically alter the very essence of the conflict in Ukraine, one where Moscow would see the United States and its NATO partners as “direct participants” in a war against Russia.

Putin’s reasoning was correct. The deployment of ATACMS and other sophisticated long-range missiles against Russia would inescapably mean that American and NATO personnel were manning these systems. The Ukrainian military – riven with desertion, in disarray, and suffering from poor morale – would not be capable of targeting and operating such munitions. The use of ATACMS, or air-launched JASSMs, and the British and French Storm Shadow and Scalp cruise missiles to hit Russia is tantamount to NATO’s direct involvement in a war against Russia.

The implication of what Putin said was grave and potentially catastrophic. If the Western states took that step, the result could mean an all-out war between nuclear powers.

When Putin issued his stark warning in September, Biden and other Western leaders, including Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, appeared at the time to heed it and back down from considerations to permit the Ukrainian regime to use long-range missiles against Russia.

Now, however, Biden has flipped to finally give his approval, according to reports. The style of anonymous U.S. officials briefing the New York Times, Washington Post, and Associated Press has all the hallmarks of an orchestrated psychological operation.

What has changed?

Simple. Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election on November 5 with a resounding victory in defiance of the political establishment that wanted Kamala Harris to win. The Republican president-elect takes over in two months when he is inaugurated on January 20. Trump has repeatedly said he will negotiate an end to the nearly three-year conflict in Ukraine, which has seen the U.S. and NATO allies bankroll a corrupt regime in Ukraine to the tune of $200 billion.

And yet after all that obscene wasting of Western public money to bloat the war machine, Russia is going to defeat the NATO proxy. The stakes for NATO’s future and the Western imperialist war machine could not be higher.

The impressive electoral mandate for Trump suggests that the American public wants the U.S. warmongering to stop and for their mounting economic and social needs to be taken care of as a priority.

Under Trump, the war racket could well be over. His nomination last week of Tulsi Gabbard – an outspoken critic of the NATO proxy war in Ukraine – as his Director of National Intelligence is a major sign of his bold intentions of negotiating a diplomatic settlement to the conflict. That means the end of the blood money flowing into the coffers of the Western military-industrial complex and Wall Street. Biden and the Democrat candidate Kamala Harris were the puppets of the war racket. To perform well, they mouthed endless Russophobia, making negotiations impossible with Moscow, and they swore to keep the conflict in Ukraine going “for as long as it takes.” European leaders like Starmer, Macron, and Scholz are equally contemptible.

As Biden packs his bags for his overdue retirement, he is rendering desperate last-minute services to the war racket that lies at the putrid heart of American capitalism. Last week, his Secretary of State Antony Blinken (another non-entity puppet) said the Biden administration would release a further $9 billion in military aid to Ukraine so that it could keep fighting the war well into next year.

Likewise, the reported green light from Biden on the use of long-range missiles is another ploy to keep the war racket going. Trump could reverse the decision when he enters the White House, but over the next two months, the Biden administration seems to be trying to sabotage Trump’s peace intentions by escalating the conflict to a dangerous point of no return.

Russia should not take the bait. For a start, the United States does not have a large supply of ATACMS to give to Ukraine. Any use of these missiles will be limited. The Kiev regime’s so-called president Vladimir Zelensky – he canceled elections months ago and rules by decree – has no chance of stopping the rapidly advancing victory of Russian forces, even with a few ATACMS.

No, this is not about defending Ukraine or enabling Zelensky’s ridiculous “victory plan”. It’s all about the American-led Western imperialist deep state wanting to provoke Russia into a dreadful escalation to keep the war profits churning.

Biden’s gesture is reckless, but it is something that should be treated with contempt. As he wanders off to the oblivion of his retirement dementia, people will soon forget about this failed politician. His 50-year career was one long shift of prostituting for U.S. imperialism.

Legally, Russia could respond to Biden’s provocation with reciprocal attacks on U.S. and NATO sites. But such an escalation is exactly what the imperialist deep state of the U.S. and its NATO lackeys are betting on.

The provocative gesture is more symbolic than a substantive threat. Russia should ignore it and focus on demolishing the NATO proxy regime in Kiev, and with that, thereby deal a fatal blow to U.S. and NATO credibility.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... ovocation/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Nov 20, 2024 12:51 pm

Progressive Escalation Tactics
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 20/11/2024

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“Sorry, no unnecessary details,” Zelensky said yesterday at a press conference in response to incessant questions from the press, eager to confirm whether Ukraine has officially received the green light from the United States and other allies to use Western missiles against Russian Federation territories and whether it has already used them. The attempt to maintain silence is consistent with the anger shown by several Kiev officials after the leak by The New York Times , which had reported the news without the approval of Ukraine, which preferred to have been able to surprise with the use of these weapons without any prior announcement. As Valery Zaluzhny once commented during his time in command of the Armed Forces, we are faced with a “one-shot” war: miracle weapons cause the expected destructive effect in their first uses, but Russian troops learn to respond to them and work to counter them. This is what happened, for example, with the HIMARS, Leopards or even F-16s that were to completely change the course of the war.

The rhetoric is now being repeated with the use of ATACMS on the territory of mainland Russia, even though it is well known that the number of ATACMS available to Ukraine is not enough to do enough damage to force Moscow to negotiate peace as Zelensky hopes. “Ukraine has long-range capabilities, there are long-range drones of its own production, now we have a long Neptune and more than one. And now we have ATACMS and we will use all of them,” said the Ukrainian president, adding that “now that the relevant decisions have been made, not only in the media but also in the respective countries, it is very important to add to these decisions the number of opportunities we have to reduce the military potential of the Russian Federation, wherever it is.”

“At 03:25 hours (0025 GMT), the enemy attacked a base in the Bryansk region with six ballistic missiles. According to confirmed data, ATACMS tactical missiles of American manufacture were used,” the Russian Ministry of Defence published yesterday to explain the huge explosion and fire that had broken out at one of its military bases in the Bryansk region. Ukraine’s silence, consistent with its desire to hide its cards regarding the Western missiles and the permission to use them in the Russian Federation, led one to believe that these were not HIMARS as some of the press had speculated in the morning. According to the Russian version - there is no Ukrainian version yet, although if there is one in the future it is expected to include imaginary casualty figures and perhaps some mention of North Korean troops - the Russian S-400s and Pantsir shot down five of the six missiles fired by the Ukrainian troops and damaged the sixth, which caused a fire in the "technical part" of one of their bases. As is usual on both sides of the front, there is no assessment of damage in the attacks suffered. Reuters says that Russia shot down two of the eight launched.

Hours earlier, Vladimir Putin had signed and thus made official the change in the Russian nuclear doctrine, which significantly lowers the level of threat against which nuclear weapons could be used. Specifically, Russia includes in this version a new scenario, that of a missile attack by a non-nuclear power supported by a nuclear one, an ad hoc formulation to describe what can happen in the future or could have happened yesterday if it is confirmed that the bombing of a Russian base in Bryansk was carried out with American ATACMS. “We will take this as a qualitatively new phase of the Western war against Russia. And we will react accordingly,” said the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Sergey Lavrov, in Brazil, where he is representing Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit. “I hope that they read the [nuclear] doctrine in its entirety,” added the diplomat, much harsher than usual, recalling that, as Vladimir Putin had insisted the day before, the use of Western missiles “also means that they will be operated by American military experts.”

“We need peace through strength,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said yesterday in its statement to commemorate the thousand days of the Russian-Ukrainian war and reaffirm that the military path is the only possible way out of the conflict. As Andriy Ermak wrote on Sunday, “strength means weapons,” to which it must be added that peace means victory. “Ukraine will never submit to the occupiers and the Russian army will be punished for violating international law,” adds the statement from the country that preferred to have an eternal war on its territory and risk a much broader and more destructive one in order not to have to comply with the agreement it had signed and that had received the approval of the United Nations Security Council. Ukraine shows a level of confidence much higher than just a few days ago, when there was still uncertainty about whether Trump’s plans were to abandon Ukraine or impose peace by force and he was still begging for permission to use Western missiles in Russia.

As The New York Times predicted over the weekend, Biden's decision to allow the use of ATACMS was unlikely to fully satisfy Ukraine. The law of probability of escalation tactics suggests that once one objective has been achieved, work must begin on the next. It is not difficult to deduce from Zelensky's words " number of opportunities" a way of asking his allies for a much larger number of missiles to use against Russia. On November 10, France announced the delivery of 10 Scalp missiles out of the 40 it has committed, a modest number capable of causing destruction but not of changing the dynamics of the front. But, as on other occasions, the first target chosen is not France, nor the United Kingdom, whose supply of Storm Shadows is also modest, but Germany. Following the news that Biden would allow the use of ATACMS in Russia, Olaf Scholz, against the opinion of members of his coalition and even his party, reaffirmed his refusal to supply Taurus missiles. In one of the many contradictions of this war, a demonstration organised by the Russian diaspora in Germany and led by Yulia Navalnaya, behind the banner reading “no to war” could be seen signs with the slogan “Taurus for Ukraine”.

In the purest Orwellian sense, war is peace, something that the Ukrainian president also strictly adheres to. “Zelensky believes that Germany must allow its missiles to be used in Russia after Putin’s new nuclear doctrine,” headlined Europa Press yesterday evening . Kiev no longer demands that Germany only send Taurus missiles, but specifically for use against Russian territory, the main reason why Chancellor Olaf Scholz has refused this supply. Skilled with speech, Kiev individualizes the requests to appeal to the right feelings in each country. In the case of Germany, it is not the North Korean issue that can achieve the objective, but the nuclear one. In any case, the objective is to present any escalation, and announcing Ukrainian bombings with Western weapons in Russia undoubtedly is, as a reactive act and to deny that Russian retaliation – such as the change in nuclear doctrine in response to the foreseeable US permission to use long-range weapons in Russia – is the real provocation.

“In Biden’s eyes, this is an escalation, in response to an escalation,” CNN wrote last Sunday , lending credibility to the narrative that the announcement of permission for the use of Western missiles on Russian territory is a response to the internationalization of the conflict due to the arrival of North Korean troops and not to the carefully planned tactic of progressive escalation. “But the fact that it has been delayed for so long because of the extraordinary symbolism of granting this permission only increases the power of the decision he has just made. President-elect Donald Trump may think he can talk about peace, but he will inherit a war in which the stakes are much higher,” the article concluded. In reality, the lifting of the veto is perfectly consistent with the strategy of forcing the parties to negotiate that Donald Trump has proposed during the campaign, whose vision of Ukraine is not so different from that of other European leaders, who now preach peace through force . The subversion of the word, which, as in Zelensky’s ideology, really means victory, means that the version of peace being announced these days by people like Josep Borrell, whose discourse does not differ at all from that of the Baltic hawks, is something that can be achieved through escalation rather than negotiation. “Russia only understands the language of force,” Andriy Ermak wrote in the evening after announcing that “force flies,” the implicit confirmation of the second missile attack on Russian territory, this time in Belgorod.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/11/20/tacti ... rogresiva/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of repelling the attempted invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the territory of the Russian Federation in the Kursk Region (as of November 20, 2024) The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to defeat the formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk Region. - Units of the North group of forces inflicted defeat on the formations of the 41st , 44th , 47th and 115th mechanized, 5th tank, 82nd airborne assault brigades, 36th marine brigade, 112th and 129th territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Alexandria, Viktorovka, Darino, Lebedevka, Malaya Loknya, Nikolsky, Novoivanovka and Sverdlikovo. - The destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group blocked in the Olgovskaya grove area has been completed. - Strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation , artillery fire hit enemy manpower and equipment in the areas of the populated areas of Agronom, Alexandria, Guevo, Zazulevka, Zeleny Shlyakh, Kazachya Loknya, Kolmakov, Lebedevka, Leonidove, Martynovka, Makhnovka, Melovoy, Mirny, Nizhny Klin, Nikolaevka, Nikolsky, Novoivanovka, Plekhovo, Sverdlikovo, Staraya Sorochina, Sudzha and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, as well as Basovka, Belovody, Zhuravka, Miropolye, Pavlovka and Yunakovka in the Sumy region. - Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 400 servicemen, six infantry fighting vehicles, including one Marder infantry fighting vehicle made in Germany, four armored personnel carriers, including an M113 armored personnel carrier made in the United States, a Bogdana self-propelled artillery mount, an AS-90 self-propelled artillery mount made in the United Kingdom, an electronic warfare station, and 20 vehicles. Eleven Ukrainian servicemen have surrendered. - In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction , the enemy has lost more than 34,390 servicemen, 215 tanks, 147 infantry fighting vehicles, 120 armored personnel carriers, 1,190 armored combat vehicles, 988 vehicles, 296 artillery pieces, 40 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including 11 HIMARS and six MLRS made in the United States, 13 launchers of anti-aircraft missile systems, seven transport and loading vehicles, 68 electronic warfare stations, 13 counter-battery radars, four air defense radars, 27 units of engineering and other equipment, including 13 engineering vehicles for obstacle clearance, one UR-77 mine clearing unit , as well as six armored repair and recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle.

***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of November 20, 2024 ) Main:

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 500 servicemen and five warehouses in one day due to the actions of the "South" group;

- Russian air defense shot down four Hammer aerial bombs and 141 Ukrainian drones in one day;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 420 people and four warehouses in one day in the area of ​​responsibility of the Western group;

- The "Dnepr" and "North" groups destroyed 185 Ukrainian servicemen in one day;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 115 servicemen in one day due to the actions of the "East" group.

- The Russian Armed Forces hit airfields, warehouses of unmanned aerial vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

▫️Units of the "East" force grouping improved the position along the forward edge, defeated the formations of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 113th, 120th, 128th, 129th Territorial Defense Brigades and the 21st National Guard Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Razliv, Velyka Novosyolka and Oktyabr of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Two counterattacks of the assault groups of the 123rd Territorial Defense Brigade were repelled. The enemy's losses amounted to 115 servicemen, a tank , an M113 armored personnel carrier made in the USA, two vehicles, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Bogdana" , two 155-mm howitzers M198 made in the USA. The "Anklav-N" electronic warfare station was destroyed .

▫️Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 65th and 110th mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 103rd and 126th territorial defense brigades , and the 15th National Guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Novopavlivka, Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporizhia region, Dneprovskoe, Nikolskoe, and Kazatskoe in the Kherson region.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 80 servicemen, three vehicles, a 152-mm D-20 gun , an Anklav-N electronic warfare station, and a Plastun electronic reconnaissance station . A military-technical equipment warehouse was destroyed .

▫️ Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted damage on the infrastructure of military airfields, energy facilities used for the operation of enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, warehouses of unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 139 districts.

▫️ Air defense systems shot down four French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs , a US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system and 141 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

▫️ In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 648 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 36,400 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,397 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,490 multiple launch rocket systems, 18,248 field artillery pieces and mortars, 28,541 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Ian Proud: Why Putin won’t go nuclear following ATACMS decision
November 18, 2024
By Ian Proud, Website, 11/18/24

Ian was a senior officer at the British Embassy in Moscow from July 2014 to February 2019, at a time when UK-Russia relations were particularly tense. He performed a number of roles in Moscow, including as Head of Chancery, Economic Counsellor – in charge of advising UK Ministers on economic sanctions – Chair of the Crisis Committee, Director of the Diplomatic Academy for Eastern Europe and Central Asia and Vice Chair of the Board at the Anglo-American School. He oversaw the Embassy’s preparations for the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia and rebuilt embassy staffing structures following the mass expulsion of staff that followed the March 2018 Salisbury nerve agent attack.

Many western commentators are frantically predicting the imminent onset of World War III following Joe Biden’s decision to permit the use of US ATACMS missiles inside of Russia. The Russian media and political establishment will undoubtedly respond furiously to this move. But much depends on how the missiles are used. With a Trump Presidency on the horizon on a mandate to end the war in Ukraine, I believe Putin will be measured in his response.

Republican commentators have condemned the move by Biden as escalating risk of WWIII

Unlike in 2016, there has been fairly widespread condemnation from supporters of Trump at Biden’s move, which has been viewed as a blatant escalation. Donald Trump Junior went to X to claim the Biden administration was trying to ‘get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives.’ Other Republican politicians including Senator Mike Lee of Utah and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia have echoed the World War 3 warning. Venture Capitalist and Trump Support David Sacks asked if Biden’s goal was ‘to hand Trump the worst situation possible?’

Biden copies Obama’s final move, to break up the diplomatic ground for an incoming Trump Presidency

Biden’s move was designed to make the diplomatic terrain harder for Trump to navigate on Ukraine policy.

Putin will view it in those terms too.

He will remember that President Obama pulled a similar – though less dangerous – stunt during this final days in office. In one of his final foreign policy moves Obama announced sanctions against Russia for alleged election meddling, and expelled 35 Russian diplomats from the USA. This prompted a frenzy of reporting about how Putin might respond, much like we have seen over the past twenty-four hours. In the end, Putin chose not to respond and, instead, he paused to see where US policy would go under the incoming administration President Trump.

ATACMS decision not as significant as it appears as Zelensky’s hands still tied

Biden’s decision is an extension of the decision from May to allow limited use of US HIMARS systems to hit military installations in the borderlands of Russia to reduce attacks on Kharkiv. Zelensky won’t have weapons free to strike at will within Russia. While escalatory, it is not as significant as it seems.

The indications coming out of the US administration are that the ATACMS missiles may only be used to quell an expected major Russian assault on Ukrainian formations dug in in Kursk oblast.

Biden’s decision an attempt to help Zelensky save face after blunder of Kursk offensive

Ukraine has lost around half of the territory in Kursk that it occupied during its audacious raid in August. Clinging on to that territory until peace talks inevitably happen to end the war, Zelensky has said, will allow him symbolically to trade Russian land for Ukrainian land occupied by Russia. Since the Kursk offensive, Ukraine has lost more land to the relentless, grinding Russian advance in the Donbas, which takes small steps most days. Losing the foothold in Kursk will reveal what many commentators already point out, that the Ukrainian incursion was a strategic blunder by Zelensky that won’t change the outcome of a war he is losing. So, a US decision to permit the use of ATACMS at best is an attempt by the Biden Administration to help Zelensky save face.

Russia’s response will depend on actual ATACMS strikes

With the use of ATACMS entirely dependent on US intelligence and targeting, it is unlikely that the outgoing Biden administration will permit wider attacks outside of the Kursk theatre or in military centres that are in range of Kursk. However, we have yet to see how the missiles will be used and Putin will take his cue from that, rather than acting pre-emptively.

Putin will have to respond in some way

However, and despite the use of HIMARS already inside of Russia, Putin will have to reciprocate in some way, having said on screen in St Petersburg in September that he would. He doesn’t have the political space not to act.

Putin has been here before and probably won’t overreact

Putin knows that a major Russian retaliation that targeted US military or other assets would make it far harder for Trump to sue for peace between Russia and Ukraine, as he has promised to do. I assess it unlikely that Putin would escalate to a nuclear level on the back of what is essentially a tactical change in western weapons’ use. He won’t want to close off any space that Trump has to negotiate, which is Biden’s aim in taking the ATACMS decision.

While he has the resources and political support to continue bleeding Ukraine white, the war in Ukraine still comes at a significant economic and human cost to Russia. Trump offers a potential off-ramp that would leave Putin in a better position that he was in March 2022, when the US and UK blocked the Istanbul peace agreement.

Putin will be happy for Russian state commentators to whip up the risk of over-escalation

As happened in late 2016, Putin will undoubtedly encourage Russian talking heads to sow panic in the western media about a Russian over-escalation. That will give him space to respond in a moderate way and illuminate the western press as hysterical and Russophobic, a common attack line.

More likely, he will:

up strategic attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine;
possibly target NATO weapons’ distribution hubs in Poland;
make a limited and pre-signaled strike on a US military facility in Europe or elsewhere.
The risk to the UK and France

There are signals that the UK and France are following America’s move in possibly authorising the use of Storm Shadow and Scalp Cruise Missiles inside of Russia. I believe the same limitations on targeting would apply, as above. The same risks of a limited Russian strike on UK and French assets therefore apply.

However, the bigger risk is that a Trump Administration will reverse the decision on ATACMS use inside of Russia, leaving both countries on a limb in which Ukraine still hits Russia with their weapons while Trump pushes for peace talks between Zelensky and Putin.

That will mean France and Britain have a bigger climb down from their position of unquestioning support for war in Ukraine, when ceasefire talks start. In Britain in particular, that may increase pressure on the government’s enormous spending on supporting the ongoing war, at a time when taxes are taking a massive hike and the cost of living crisis continues. There is more scope for France to pivot its position within the EU, which will be unable to match US financial military support for Ukraine if Trump pushes, instead for peace.

Keir Starmer has already got off to a bad start with Trump but sending Labour party activists to support the Harris campaign. He risks leaving the UK increasingly isolated and irrelevant on Ukraine policy. Plus ca change!

For now, don’t expect World War III to start overnight. Keep calm and carry on pressing for this mindless war to end.

***

RT: Republicans condemn ATACMS use for strikes deep inside Russia

The US, along with France and the UK, has reportedly permitted Kiev to use long-range missiles for strikes deep into Russia. The French SCALPs and British Storm Shadows have a range of about 250 kilometers, while the new American ATACMS can reach up to 300 kilometers. In response, Trump’s team accuses the Biden administration of escalating tensions and bringing the world closer to a larger conflict. RT’s senior correspondent Murad Gazdiev reports on this significant escalation. (video at link.)

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/11/ian ... -decision/

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Decoding Kuleba’s Article In The Economist

Andrew Korybko
Nov 19, 2024

Image

Kuleba comes off as much more scared that Trump will coerce Ukraine into compromising than he presents himself as being.

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba published an article in The Economist about why the “War in Ukraine may only intensify under Trump”, the gist of which is that Putin, Zelensky, and Trump will all escalate in their own ways since neither can afford to lose or at least look weak to the other. Interwoven within this message are several less visible ones that nonetheless became more apparent upon closer scrutiny. The present piece will decode the remainder of what Kuleba conveyed in his article.

He begins by claiming that the calls for a compromise, which have been revived since Trump’s electoral victory, were responsible for the conflict in the first place. According to him, that’s because Putin fashions himself to be the successor of those Tsars under whom parts of what’s nowadays Ukraine came under Russian control. Correspondingly, he allegedly has no desire to compromise and must thus successfully subjugate Ukraine otherwise he’ll go down in history as a “loser”.

This line of argumentation belies just how afraid Kuleba is that Trump might seriously be considering a compromise whereby Ukraine falls far short of its maximum goal of restoring its pre-2014 borders. After all, if he had no such fears, then he wouldn’t have to frame everything in such over-simplified psychological terms designed to deter any progress from being made in that direction. Kuleba then makes a direct pass at Trump by trying to appeal to a combination of his own fears and ego.

To that end, he peddles a chain of fringe scenarios off as fact by assuming that Trump is seriously considering cutting Ukraine off completely; that this will lead to domestic unrest in Ukraine; and an Afghan-like defeat will then follow for the US. In reality, Trump is considering “escalating to de-escalate” as was explained here, here, and here; close to half of Ukrainians want to trade land for peace (and only ultra-nationalist battalions might keep fighting); and a Russian maximum victory is still very unlikely.

Kuleba also claims that “Neither Mr Zelensky nor Mr Putin will agree to anything like the Minsk agreements”, and while that’s an accurate reflection of their respective official statements on the matter, it ignores the power that the US has to possibly coerce them into accepting such a fait accompli. In order to not be misunderstood, no prediction is being made about the US successfully imposing such an outcome, though it also can’t be totally ruled out either if Trump does indeed “escalate to de-escalate”.

Ukraine’s former top diplomat then wraps everything up by sharing his view that Trump will inevitably be forced to restore assistance to Ukraine even if he curtails or cuts it off since he doesn’t want to “look weak”, though he’s in no position to say so with confidence since he’s not privy to his calculations. Reflecting on what was written, Kuleba comes off as much more scared than he presents himself as being, unconvincingly disguising his deep fears with false confidence all throughout his article.

His fears are just as misplaced as his confidence, however, since the premise upon which they’re based is also false due to the unlikelihood that Trump will totally cut Ukraine off from military and financial aid. What he’s most likely to do is coerce it into accepting a compromise, but the details thereof will be dependent on his negotiations with Putin, which will in turn be greatly shaped by the battlefield situation at the time of his reinauguration.

Trump might oversee a brief intensification of the conflict if he “escalates to de-escalate” in order to end the conflict on better terms for the US, but the sequence of events that Kuleba described likely won’t unfold since they’re a reflection of his own fears and attempted manipulation of Trump, not of reality. This observation is the most important takeaway from his article since it suggests that his former boss is just as afraid and thus much more amenable to doing whatever Trump demands than he makes it seem.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/decoding ... -economist

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There will be no diplomacy, despite the West’s desperate lobby

Lucas Leiroz

November 18, 2024

Moscow has already understood that it is not possible to negotiate with the neo-Nazi enemy.

Apparently, the Kiev regime is not in line with European innovations regarding a possible “peace plan” based on the recognition of the Russian New Regions. Ukrainian officials have denied any possibility of negotiating an end to territorial claims, as allegedly planned by European diplomats, which indicates that there will be no dialogue, despite pressure from some sectors of the mainstream media.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has vehemently rejected recent allegations that Kiev is willing to “cede” territory in exchange for security guarantees, accusing European Union officials of spreading false information to Western media. Speaking at a press conference in Oslo on Friday, Umerov dismissed reports suggesting Ukraine had changed its position on its territorial claims, calling such allegations “lies” and “Russian propaganda.”

The controversy arose after a series of reports in Western media outlets, including The New York Times and the Financial Times, which cited Western European diplomatic sources suggesting that Kiev might be willing to reconsider its territorial demands in light of the recent U.S. election results. According to these sources, if a ceasefire were negotiated under the mediation of President-elect Donald Trump, Ukraine might prioritize security guarantees over the full restitution of its former territories.

Umerov, however, reiterated that Kiev’s position remains unchanged. “Territorial integrity is part of our values,” he said, making it clear that Ukraine is committed to recovering all the lands that have been reintegrated into Russia since 2014. He stressed that any suggestion that Kiev is changing its stance is unfounded and misinformed. “The return of the 1991 borders remains our priority goal,” the minister said.

Umerov’s statements come at a delicate time, as Ukrainian troops continue to retreat from positions in Donbass, while Kiev faces increasing international pressure to explore possible paths for peace negotiations. The accusations against EU officials reflect the diplomatic tensions surrounding the conflict, especially regarding the West’s approach to conducting the situation and expectations regarding possible territorial concessions.

Umerov’s categorical denial contrasts with media reports suggesting that senior figures within the Ukrainian government may be reconsidering the territorial issue, particularly in the face of potential negotiations with Russia under a Trump administration. These divergent statements, and the signs that Ukraine is being pressured to reassess its demands amid the war, reflect a complex landscape in which territorial integrity and the quest for security are in constant conflict.

However, Umerov’s insistence on Kiev’s firm stance reveals the depth of Ukraine’s determination to continue the war, even if the ultimate consequences of the conflict are disastrous for the neo-Nazi regime. Anti-Russian hatred, adopted as the official political ideology of the Maidan junta, will not allow an end to hostilities, even under pressure from Trump or the Europeans. If military aid ceases, it is likely that the neo-Nazi ranks will continue to confront Russia through guerrilla tactics and asymmetric warfare, but there is unlikely to be an end to the operations.

The pressure from the Western media and some European diplomats and politicians for negotiations based on the “land for peace” formula has a simple reason: Westerners fear that Ukraine will lose even more territory and suffer even greater military humiliation. By lobbying diplomatically now, the West is trying to contain the damage and prevent Moscow from achieving an even more substantial victory.

However, any dialogue at this point is futile. The Kiev regime has already shown that it is not interested in peace, and in response, Russia has canceled all previous talks. The massacre of civilians in Kursk has made it clear that negotiations with Kiev are not possible, and Moscow will certainly not resume any diplomacy with the neo-Nazi junta. In the same vein, Russia’s territorial demands will certainly be updated, since as much territory as necessary to ensure border security will be reintegrated.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... ate-lobby/

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In Balaklava, they are installing net barriers
November 20, 14:16

Image

In Sevastopol, work is underway to install boom-net barriers to protect Balaklava Bay from sea drones.

After the installation of the barriers, a special mode of operation will be in effect, which will close the entrance to Balaklava Bay at night. The work schedule will be announced additionally.

Image

Although Balaklava Bay is not currently used for military purposes, the measure is certainly correct, which complements the work of drone hunters, narrowing the enemy's ability to attack our bays with drones. It is worth noting that after the hunt for BEKs was debugged, the effectiveness of this means of attack significantly decreased. It is a pity that before that, they managed to lose a number of ships.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9506842.html

Freezing the conflict is unacceptable
November 20, 12:20

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Freezing is unacceptable!

1. All necessary measures are being taken to protect the Crimean Bridge and other critical infrastructure facilities, Putin gave the instructions long ago,

2. Yesterday's ATACMS missile strike on a facility in the Bryansk region did not change Putin's schedule, the president devotes many hours to the topic of the SVO.

3. The option of freezing the Ukrainian conflict will not work for Russia, it is important for the Russian Federation to achieve its goals;

4. The current US administration is doing everything possible in the remaining time to continue the conflict in Ukraine, including approving the supply of anti-personnel mines to Kiev;

5. The threat to countries in the Baltic Sea region comes from Ukraine, accusations of cable sabotage against the Russian Federation are absurd and ridiculous.

6. Putin is ready for contacts and negotiations on Ukraine, including with Trump

7. The candidacy of the new Russian ambassador to the United States has been chosen, procedures for his approval and preparation of a decree are underway.

(c) Peskov

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9506701.html

Google Translator

******

Image

BIDEN SLAMS THE DOOR GOING OUT
by Gordonhahn
November 18, 2024

As I wrote in several articles months ago, the Joe Biden administration’s political wing kicked down the road until after the U.S. presidential election the escalation against Russia that allowing Kiev to hit the country with US ATACMs short- and/or long-range missiles would constitute (https://gordonhahn.com/2024/09/16/ukrai ... elections/ and https://gordonhahn.com/2024/09/03/ukrai ... ts-update/). It appears, as numerous reports indicate, that Biden has now approved the use of U.S. short-range ATACM missiles by Ukraine to target Russia on its pre-2022 territory, specifically in the Kursk salient, where Ukraine’s best brigades are about to be encircled or forced into retreat and destroyed.

Ukraine is incapable of launching ATACMs or British-French Stormshadow missiles without American military providing guidance, targeting, and programming data. This is why Russian President Vladimir Putin stated a few months ago, as I noted in the above mentioned articles, that states so facilitating Ukraine’s launch of such missiles targeting Russian territory would make themselves and their armed forces participating combatants in the war and so become to fair game for targetting by Russia’s armed forces.


In my first article on this subject when Western policymakers began broaching the issue seriously in September, I noted: “The U.S. Democrat Party-state and the media-academic-military-industrial-congressional complex cannot allow prior to the presidential election neither an obvious Ukrainian collapse to materialize as an ‘October surprise’ nor a major escalation that brings war or clearly risks U.S. troops or the homeland. But there should be no doubt; there are domestic options of an escalatory nature being examined in Western decision-making and research centers. When one of the next Western or Western-backed Ukrainian escalations is enacted – regardless if it is engineered under a Trump or Harris administration or the guise thereof – there will follow, as sure as night follows day, a Russian response targeting not just ruined, disappearing Ukraine but the West” (https://gordonhahn.com/2024/09/03/ukrai ... ts-update/).

Two weeks later I reiterated the point, noting: “The US has refrained from removing its prohibition on Ukraine’s use of US ATACM or JSSSAM long-range missiles against targets deep inside Russia’s pre-2014 territory. Against all military and political logic, the UK lobbied hard during its prime minister’s visit to Washington and had approved use of its Storm Shadow missiles for such use (https://ctrana.news/news/471905-london- ... ossii.html). The US is operating under military and political logic. The Biden administration demanded that Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy present a list of potential Russian targets to the White House, after the Pentagon questioned the military utility of such attacks (https://ctrana.news/news/471904-ssha-tr ... po-rf.html). Politically, as I noted, it is not in the Biden administration’s and Democratic party’s interest to have a crisis of a status of the Cuban Missile Crisis or have Ukrainian forces suffer a grave collapse before the November 5 presidential elections. This precluded any lifting of the prohibition before then, but afterwards things could change, and there those such as US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and other neocons will be pressing hard to work out a reversal of this sane decision” (https://gordonhahn.com/2024/09/16/ukrai ... elections/).

It should be noted that this combatant level participation in military conflict is occurring during the last weeks of a lame duck president without any discussion by the American people or its ostensible representatives in Congress. No war powers discussion is evident either. Moreover, the decision and its original delay in September mark another case in a now familiar and routine American government pattern of using foreign policy for domestic political purposes – as a ‚political football‘ if you will. In September, the decision was delayed so that it would not harm the Democrat Party’s presidential and other election candidates. Now, in November, it, along with a large, final aide package for Kiev, is being used to troll and undermine President-elect Donald Trump. Make no mistake, this is the tripe into which American politics has degraded. It is no accident that Biden ‚welcomed Trump back to the White House‘, being ever so nice and polite, and then stabbed him in the back two days with this leak to the New York Times in order to spite Trump and simultaneously complicate Trump’s push to put an end tot he NATO-Russia Ukrainian War. To be sure, some wanted to play this game, while others had a more strategic purpose of escalating the war against ‚Putin’s Russia.‘ Nevertheless, the domestic political component of all this is huge.

More globally, although this step – if the NYT peice is not another CIA-planted fake for propaganda purposes targeting both domestic and foreign politics, will not save Ukraine from ist dire fate, it will mark a key escalation. Putin is certain to consider the war even more than hitherto to be a war with the ‚collective West‘ more than one with Ukraine. After all, Great Britain and France followed suit after the American reports by approving use of their Stormshadow missiles on targets located in pre-2022 Russian territory. The good news is that the noted American and European missiles cannot hit Moscow or St. Petersburg, which would be another level of escalation. Still, provincial capitols, important military and installations and bases, and energy infrastructure can be expected to be hit first in Kursk but soon likely elsewhere, though Russian air defense has proven quite capable in intercepting the better portion of such missiles. Indeed, I would expect the Ukrainians to hit targets that are certain to involve significant casualties among Russian civilians as well as more purely military and military-related targets. Zelenskiy has claimed that the Russians deliberately target civilians, has willfully lied about them doing so in particular instances, and often stated that he wants ordinary Russians to ‚feel the war.‘

The Russian president may respond by hitting Western targets through proxies around the world, declaring war on Ukraine and repealing the ‘special military operation’, or even hitting targets in the West directly. Regardless, the pattern of escalation by ‘slowly boiling the frog‘ answered by Russian counter-escalations continues. And the power struggles in the U.S. are far from over, and as long as they continue to unfold in an anti-realist, anti-republican spirit they will force Russia to persist in seizing new Ukrainian territory and drive all the way to the Dnieper River and perhaps beyond, exacerbating international tensions and moving us closer to a major war. Biden has just slammed the door going out, and he is likely to do it some more.

But the most important consequence of Biden’s political tantrum is that it offers very limited military improvement while imparting a dangerous escalation in the NATO-Russian Ukrainian War. We have moved one step closer to the fulfilment of Zelenskiy’s dream of bringing NATO into the war, given the Biden missile approval followed by Putin’s new Russian nuclear doctrine, which holds any powers or blocs allied with and assisting a country attacking Russia responsible for such attacks and at war with Russia. The West’s ‘party of war’ was unable to defeat Trump at the polls, so it has opted to anger Putin such that he will reject the next president’s peace overtures. The most disconcerting possibility in this regard is that some in Moscow will be counseling Putin that Biden and Trump are playing ‘good cop/bad cop, so Washington can continue trying to move the ball closer to the end zone – the neocon holy grail of a strategic defeat of Russia.


https://gordonhahn.com/2024/11/18/biden ... going-out/

Amused that Hahn prattles on about 'republican' values and such. I suspect that his concept of the word is much the same as Cicero, that sleazy mouthpiece of the Roman optimates.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Nov 21, 2024 1:07 pm

Emergency weapons
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/21/2024

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On January 24 of this year, the BBC website recalled an episode produced 27 years earlier. Referring to the documentary archive of the British public broadcaster, the article explained that the images “reveal an intimate look at the walk of Diana, Princess of Wales, over landmines in Angola on January 15, 1997. It had a great impact and triggered a worldwide debate that was a turning point in the fight against these lethal devices.” The weapons that were being raised at that time were anti-personnel mines, a humanitarian cause that several celebrities chose as their own in the 1990s, especially on the African continent. The arguments were simple: the damage that one of these small devices could do to a person, the ability to remain hidden and the difficulty of demining due to earth movements, a serious problem in places where wars were leaving a trail of blood even after peace had been achieved.

Media causes tend to be forgotten the moment that what they fought against can be useful. This was the case just over a year ago, when the United States announced the delivery of cluster bombs to Ukraine, the use of which has been criticised in this war only when Russia has been accused of using them. Complaints by Human Rights Watch, which cannot be considered pro-Russian, in 2014 about the use of cluster bombs in the war in Donbass fell on deaf ears. However, in 2023, with Ukraine's ground counteroffensive completely stalled, Washington wanted to find a miracle weapon that would help Ukraine finish off the soldiers defending the trenches of the Surovikin Line . Despite the ominous nature of the announcement and the expectations that kyiv wanted to create, the cluster missiles, like the depleted uranium missiles, failed to change the course of the battle, which ended with Zelensky's admission of a new defensive phase of the war.

The situation is now repeating itself, albeit in a much more unfavourable context for Ukraine on the front line: Russia is advancing in the east and even making progress in the urban battles of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) and Kurajovo, where Ukrainian troops are simply trying to slow down Russian progress. The 2023 offensive in Zaporozhye, where Leopard tanks and other Ukrainian tanks were quickly spotted and stranded in the fields under artillery fire, showed the danger that armoured columns face in times when drones are already a tool present in any army unit. Hence, Russia has modified its tactics in Donbass to prioritise infantry over armoured vehicles and small groups over large ones, thereby significantly improving its performance on the fortified Donbass front.

Yesterday, the same BBC that just a few months ago epically recalled Diana, Princess of Wales’ walk through what had been the minefields of Angola, remnants of one of the many conflicts of the Cold War, announced that “Biden agrees to deliver anti-personnel mines to Ukraine” and, quoting an American official, added that it was “a measure that is seen as an attempt to stop the advance of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine in recent months.” “They are no longer advancing with their mechanized forces. They are advancing with dismounted forces that are capable of closing in and doing things to pave the way for mechanized forces,” said Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of Defense, confirming the news. After almost two years of Ukraine repeatedly claiming that Russia was preparing to mobilise again because it had run out of soldiers, and after months of arguing that Moscow is now losing the most soldiers it has ever lost in the entire war - something more than questionable, given that none of the battles being fought are comparable to, say, the battle of Artyomovsk - the measure of clinging to anti-personnel mines must not seem desperate.

“The United States is seeking to get Kiev to use anti-personnel mines in the east of the country, according to US officials, where Russian troops have slowly and steadily advanced against Ukrainian defensive lines. The bitter battle has cost Moscow dearly, and Ukraine says Russia has suffered its highest number of casualties this week. But relentless Russian pressure, coupled with Ukrainian manpower and ammunition shortages, has allowed the Russian military to gradually seize more territory,” CNN wrote yesterday, without explaining why the Russian advance is so slow that intervention is needed to slow it down, or why, if Western weapons so clearly outnumber Russian ones and if Russia is the one losing the most soldiers, it is necessary to resort to weapons that have been fought against for decades. Curiously, the treaty that bans them bears the name of Ottawa, one of Ukraine’s main ally. The 1997 Ottawa Treaty prohibits states that ratify it from using, developing, producing, stockpiling or transferring anti-personnel mines. Among the more than 150 countries that have ratified the treaty are neither Russia nor the United States, although Ukraine has, as Sky News noted yesterday, “indicated that it may withdraw from the treaty out of necessity.”

In 2022, Ukraine chose to continue fighting rather than reach a compromise agreement with Russia, understanding that, thanks to the quality of its soldiers and Western weapons, it would be able to militarily defeat Moscow and obtain a complete victory. That position has not changed and, despite the obvious difficulties on the front, kyiv has reaffirmed its intention not to negotiate with the Kremlin unless it is in a position of strength. The permission to use Western missiles and the first episodes of use of American ATACMS in Bryansk on Tuesday and British Storm Shadows in Kursk yesterday have been presented as the necessary element to destroy Russia's ability to continue in the war. However, the need to resort to weapons such as anti-personnel mines to try to kill as many Russian soldiers as possible in Donbass shows a much more complex reality of war than the usual simplification according to which Russian soldiers are systematically shot down by Ukrainian troops.

Curiously, on the same day that the desperate measure of the United States was announced, which seems willing to escalate the situation to the maximum in the two months remaining of Biden's term, data on the effects of antipersonnel mines were also published. "Antipersonnel mines left more than 5,700 new victims in 2023, 84% civilians," Europa Press headlined . Ukraine is no stranger to these lessons and there have been many episodes in which even minors have been seriously injured by the mines that have scattered the fields around the cities on the Donbass front in the last decade.

“Ukraine is currently the most heavily mined country in the world, with 23% of its territory at risk of contamination by landmines and unexploded ordnance. After nearly three years of large-scale war, Ukraine is estimated to be littered with hundreds of thousands of explosive remnants of war,” the United Nations denounced just a month ago. The logic of war makes it necessary to further worsen an already serious problem.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/11/21/armas-de-emergencia/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
⚡️ Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of November 21, 2024)

— Units of the North force group in the Kharkov direction defeated the formations of the 116th territorial defence brigade and the 5th border detachment of the Ukrainian border service in the areas of the settlements of Lebedivka and Kazachya Lopan in the Kharkov region.

The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to 145 servicemen, two tanks, 11 combat armoured vehicles and a 122 mm D-30 howitzer.

— Units of the West force group improved the tactical situation, defeated the manpower and equipment of the 28th, 63rd, 116th mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 119th territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Kupyansk, Zagryzovo, Glushkovka in the Kharkov region and Krasny Liman in the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy lost up to 480 servicemen, two infantry fighting vehicles, an armored combat vehicle, six cars, a US-made 155 mm M198 howitzer, two 152 mm D-20 guns, two 122 mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery units, and a 122 mm D-30 howitzer.

Two Anklav-N electronic warfare stations and four field ammunition depots were destroyed.

— Units of the Southern Group of Forces, as a result of decisive actions, liberated the settlement of Dalneye in the Donetsk People's Republic.

Formations of the 33rd, 54th Mechanized, and 56th Motorized Infantry Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Chervone, Seversk, Verolyubovka, Dachnoye, and Kurakhovo in the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy's losses amounted to 380 servicemen, 12 vehicles, a 155 mm self-propelled artillery unit "Braveheart" made in Great Britain, two 152 mm guns D-20, a 122 mm howitzer D-30 and four 105 mm guns M119 made in the USA.

The electronic warfare station "Bukovel-AD" and a field ammunition depot were destroyed.

— Units of the Center group of forces continued to advance into the depths of the enemy's defense, inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 100th Mechanized, 68th Infantry, 425th Airborne Assault Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 38th Marine Brigade, the 2nd and 14th National Guard Brigades and the 241st Territorial Defense Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Grodovka, Sukhoi Yar, Dachenskoye, Ulyanovka, Dimitrov and Pravdovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy lost more than 385 servicemen, two US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and an M113 armored personnel carrier, an armored combat vehicle, two cars, a 152 mm D-20 gun, two 122 mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery units, two 122 mm D-30 howitzers and a 100 mm Rapira anti-tank gun.

— Units of the "East" force group occupied more advantageous lines and positions, defeated the formations of the 33rd mechanized, 71st infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 130th territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Zelenoye Pole, Ulakly and Novosilka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy's losses amounted to 145 servicemen, a tank, an infantry fighting vehicle, an M113 armored personnel carrier made in the USA, three cars and a 152 mm self-propelled artillery mount "Akatsiya".

— Units of the "Dnepr" force group defeated the manpower and equipment of the 31st mechanized, 141st infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 118th and 126th territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Novoandriyevka, Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporizhia region, Burgunka and Nikolskoye in the Kherson region.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 85 servicemen, nine vehicles and a 122 mm D-30 howitzer. A field ammunition depot was destroyed.

***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of repelling the attempted invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the territory of the Russian Federation in the Kursk region (as of November 21, 2024)

— Units of the North group of forces defeated formations of the 41st , 47th and 115th mechanized, 5th and 17th tank, 82nd airborne assault brigades, 36th marine brigade, 112th, 117th and 129th territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Alexandria, Viktorovka, Dar'ino, Lebedevka, Leonidovka, Malaya Loknya, Nikolsky, Novoivanovka and Sverdlikovo. — Strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation , artillery fire hit enemy manpower and equipment in the areas of the settlements of Agronom, Alexandria, Bogdanovka, Kruglenkoye, Kurilovka, Lebedevka, Leonidove, Martynovka, Malaya Loknya, Melovy, Nizhny Klin, Nikolaevka, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Nikolsky, Novoivanovka, Plekhovo, Sverdlikovo, Staraya Sorochina, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, as well as Basovka, Belovody, Zhuravka, Obody and Yunakovka in the Sumy region. Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 150 servicemen. Five Ukrainian servicemen surrendered. In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 34,540 servicemen, 215 tanks, 147 infantry fighting vehicles, 120 armored personnel carriers, 1,190 armored combat vehicles, 988 cars, 296 artillery pieces, 40 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including 11 HIMARS and six MLRS made in the USA, 13 anti-aircraft missile system launchers, seven transport and loading vehicles, 68 electronic warfare stations, 13 counter-battery radars, four air defense radars, 27 units of engineering and other equipment, including 13 engineering obstacle clearing vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit , as well as six armored repair and recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*****

U.S. Embassy in Kyiv on Alert for Possible Airstrike

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U.S. embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, 2024. X/ @toacactolenlid


November 20, 2024 Hour: 7:35 am

Previously, the Biden administration authorized Zelensky to use long-range ATACMS missiles against Russian territory.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv temporarily suspended its services after receiving information about a potential major airstrike on the Ukrainian capital.

The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has received specific information about a possible major airstrike on Nov. 20. As a precautionary measure, the Embassy will be closed,” stated the diplomatic mission.

“Embassy employees have been instructed to shelter in place. The U.S. Embassy advises U.S. citizens to be prepared to take immediate shelter if an air raid alert is announced,” it added.

The embassy also provided recommendations for safety in the event of an attack, including monitoring local media for updates, identifying shelter locations in advance, taking shelter immediately if an alert is announced, and following instructions from Ukrainian officials and emergency services.

🇺🇦🇷🇺 After the US Embassy in Kyiv announced its temporary closure, the embassies of Greece, Spain and Italy have now done the same.

There are rumors that Russia may launch a RS-26 ICBM with a conventional 1.2 tons warhead today at Ukraine as a test launch to check combat… pic.twitter.com/7W6Xxm4qJ9

— Conflict Dispatch (@ConflictDISP) November 20, 2024
The embassy’s message comes days after the Biden administration authorized President Volodymyr Zelensky to use long-range ATACMS missiles against Russian territory. This marks a turning point in the war that began in February 2022 and reached its 1,000-day milestone yesterday.

These missiles were reportedly used by the Ukrainian military on Tuesday, according to the Kremlin, which accused the U.S. of “adding fuel to the fire” in the ongoing conflict.

U.S. media outlets have also reported that President Biden, who will hand over power to Republican Donald Trump on January 20, approved the supply of anti-personnel landmines to Ukraine.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/u-s-emba ... airstrike/

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Zelensky's ATACMS Gambit: Nuclear Red Alert or More Empty Provocations?

Simplicius
Nov 19, 2024
As could be expected, immediately upon receipt of “authorization” from Biden, Ukraine reportedly launched an ATACMS strike on the Russian 67th GRAU depot in Bryansk region.

The difference this time is the Russian MOD themselves officially announced the usage of 6 ATACMS, of which 5 they claim were shot down:

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Another report claimed that Ukrainian official sources reported Russia only shot down 2 out of the 6. It’s difficult to believe shoot down claims from either side, as both regularly make up “shoot downs” to cover for successful strikes, but in this case we’ll see when the BDA satellite photos appear if there’s any real damage commensurate with more than one hit.

But first let’s get a few things straight. Multiple people have suggested the one clear video of the strike is infact recycled footage, with claims that even NASA’s FIRMS map has refuted any large scale explosions took place:

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I have not independently verified the FIRMS myself yet, but it’s true the other videos from the vicinity feature mostly explosive sounds but no similar fireball or plume as to the one main video—and it would seem to corroborate the Russian MOD’s words that “no damage” occurred in the strikes. In previous hits on larger Russian depots we had multiple videos of the gigantic explosion—so this one is a bit suspicious, although there are some other videos showing what appears to be secondaries exploding in the distance, though as always absolute verification is impossible.

There are other reports, like from the Wagner-affiliated Condottiero channel, which likewise corroborates that not much damage was actually done:

Condottiero

By the way, about Bryansk and the arsenal of the Russian Ministry of Defense. I will disappoint battle bloggers from both sides of the conflict. The arsenal and its main territory are not damaged.

Everything else is in the press release of the Russian Ministry of Defense.


Lastly, even pro-UA accounts admit this arsenal houses old Soviet stock and has no direct relevance to the ongoing SMO.

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What does that all mean?

That even if Ukraine did score a hit, it was once again nothing more than a ‘low hanging fruit’ PR job meant to strike an irrelevant backwater object for the same old purpose of getting up on the scoreboard and inflating the sudden narrative boost of “US solidarity”.

Remember, the last few attacks were fairly successful in blasting out huge chunks of these old Soviet depots in Tver and elsewhere, and what effect did that have? Russia’s current record offensive which is overrunning Ukrainian lines everywhere began literally right after the depots were destroyed—all while Western press assured us that “50% of all Russian Army’s ammo has been annihilated!”

They claimed it would cripple Russia and immediately sap its offensives, yet the total opposite happened. The current comparatively tiny strike will have even less effect on the ongoing hostilities.

That being said, Putin is still reacting with the seriousness of due diligence given the apparently confirmed nature of ATACMS use on Russian territory. As such, he again made headlines by ratifying the new nuclear doctrinal shifts.

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The doctrine of course allows Russia to respond with nuclear use against overwhelming air attacks or attacks from a proxy aided in large part by a major nuclear adversary.

Three major things can be said about this situation:

The first is that doomers and pro-UA content mashers hyperfocus on Ukraine’s occasional inconsequential strikes while, as always, ignoring the monstrous daily strikes of equal or greater capacity that Russia doles out regularly. For instance, in the same span that this ATACMS strike occurred, Russia blew away two major enterprises with fireball plumes as large as the claimed 67th GRAU one, seen from miles away.

Yesterday was Zaporozhye: (Video at link.)

Critical infrastructure and facilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Zaporozhye are under attack by the Russian Armed Forces TG channels report a massive raid by "Geraniya".

The head of the OVA Fedorov reports on the casualties.

Local sources write about the lack of water and heating in some areas.

Ostashko reports


And today as of this writing another swift retaliation:

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And the day before that there were massive strikes on Odessa which crippled several large enterprises; that’s not even counting the “biggest of the war” strikes on Ukraine’s energy grids. So as you can see, Russia levies daily what Ukraine is able to do once a month, or even a season. It’s just par for the course in terms of Russian strikes, yet doomers will have us focus on the one rarity that Ukraine is able to slip by.

The second thing.

Ukraine’s choice to use its very scarce remaining ATACMS stockpiles on some useless Soviet depot with no connection to the SMO is very telling. It once again reveals that Ukraine has no hope of actually winning the war kinetically and does not even bother trying to use the ATACMS against actual useful targets in the field. Instead, Zelensky deliberately chooses some defenseless backwater ‘showpiece’ to make a headline splash because an old Soviet stockpile will create the largest visible mushroom cloud to wow observers, while having no appreciable effect. The ATACMS could have been used somewhere on the front to devastate Russian assault groups, or echelon C2 headquarters, etc.

The British Sunday Times says Ukraine has as few as 50 ATACMS missiles, so if 6 are being utilized against pointless objects it again reaffirms everything we’ve known about Zelensky’s remaining strategic impulse.

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https://www.thetimes.com/article/cda4d2 ... a010d2a940

From a previous article:

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The third and most important thing.

Though Putin had to make some escalatory show, it’s more realistic to expect Russia not to react in any overt way until Trump’s term settles in. Putin is aware that an outgoing senile despot who doesn’t care if the world burns behind him may seek to start WWIII, and that Zelensky may see his final two months’ chance to provoke Russia into overreacting. As such, it’s best for Russia to do nothing, and continue grinding the offensives which are destroying Ukrainian lines everywhere.

Putin had to put on a show of signing the decree only because Russia can’t sit back and allow a red line to be crossed with no overt signal or posture change at all—that would simply be imprudent. So Putin made the minimal necessary move to signal Russia’s warnings just to keep a consistent line on things, but unless Zelensky continues with a more provocative strike, I don’t expect Russia to react too much. By provocative, I mean hitting some actual ‘strategically’ important objective, or near a nuclear plant—something along those lines.

Russia merely has to wait two months for Trump to potentially roll Biden’s dementia-riddled policies back. Of course, Trump could keep or even expand the provocations, as we’ve written about many times—no one knows for sure which direction Trump will go, but at least there’s a chance it won’t be the dangerous one.

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In fact, the attack seems to have the flavor of another secret backdoor exchange, i.e. allowing Ukraine to hit an object known to be an inert, irrelevant Soviet depot to superficially satisfy the neocon warhawk crowd without incurring too much of Russia’s wrath. In support of this theory are rumors that the Biden administration has refrained from ‘allowing’ UK—and by extension France—from giving Ukraine a similar go-ahead to strike Russia with Storm Shadow/Scalps. It seems as always, they’re deftly tiptoeing around the fine line.

Anyway, speaking of the French missiles:

France has a limited number of long-range Scalp missiles that it could transfer to Ukraine, writes the French newspaper Le Monde.

Paris has so far delivered only 10 missiles out of the 40 promised.


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https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/france- ... 27114.html

Think about it this way, according to Zelensky and official Ukrainian government statistics, Russia has launched over 6000-7000 total missiles at Ukraine during the war thus far, and one can see Ukraine is still kicking. But Russia—vastly larger and more resourceful than Ukraine—is supposed to be battered by 50 ATACMS and 10 French missiles? Give me a break—it’s just fodder for the chuds. Ukraine will continue getting methodically deconstructed with no delay.

Lastly, with all this ‘nuclear chicken’ and talks of WWIII now ripening, it’s worth mentioning the infamous 2025 Deagle Report is looking more and more interesting. I say it half in jest, since I never bought into this odd internet marginalia and curiosity in one, but perhaps it’s something to think about.

(Much more at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zel ... uclear-red

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Keane Is Not A Military Man...

... he is a hot air balloon and a sore loser who wouldn't be allowed to command regiment, let alone brigade in serious army. I totally get the agitation of Daniel Davis, but...



Keep in mind--it is the US which is nuclear-biased country, not Russia. All this talk about Russia using nuclear weapons for now is a moot point--keep in mind, Russia has an overwhelming conventional escalation dominance. Just look at the arsenal. Escalation towards nuclear threshold is a rather complex process and Russia can punish NATO without nukes. I constantly point this out.

Posted by smoothiex12 at 2:12 PM

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/11 ... y-man.html

Irina Alksnis...

... penned a good piece (in Russian) on this "permission" for strikes. You can read it here following this link. The only thing Alksnis messed up is the following of the same meme of "red lines". There never were any "red lines"--those are a figment of imagination of cowards in the West trying to probe the limits of Moscow's patience. But she nails it--the US has no space for maneuver left and it is the last step of desperation. Now it is just the matter what NATO's asset will go down first. To remind you about ATACMS ranges.

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With deployment of 50 km in depth behind VSU lines. Lines changed since then, so did the coverage by Russian ISR.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/11 ... ksnis.html

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Ukraine Fires US Missiles at Russia Risking Wider War
November 19, 2024

The Pentagon refuses to say whether Joe Biden even informed it of his reckless decision to allow the strikes, which the DoD has strenuously opposed, reports Joe Lauria.

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The Pentagon seems to have been kept in the dark about a decision that could lead to a third world war. (Joe Lauria)

By Joe Lauria
Special to Consortium News

Ukraine on Tuesday fired six U.S. ATACMS missiles into Russian territory just two days after outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden gave them permission to despite a Russian warning of a potential U.S.-NATO war as a result.

Ukraine says its attack before dawn targeted an ammunition dump not in Kursk, which Biden had authorized, but in neighboring Bryansk, a region in southwest Russia, 110 kilometers from neighboring Ukraine’s border.

The Russian Defense Ministry said it shot down five of the six ATACMS. According to The New York Times, a representative of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said the strike hit depots containing “artillery ammunition, including North Korean ammunition for their systems, guided aerial bombs, antiaircraft missiles and ammunition for multiple-launch rocket systems.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei V Lavrov told a press conference: “The fact that multiple ATACMS were used last night against the Bryansk Region signals that they [in the West] want escalation. You see, it is impossible to use these high-tech missiles without the Americans, and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has repeatedly said this.”

On Monday, the Kremlin spokesman had reiterated Putin’s warning that because NATO personnel were required to fire such missiles it meant NATO would enter into direct war with Russia, changing the meaning of the conflict. That has now happened.

November Surprise

As a result Biden is risking what he had previously warned would be “World War III, okay? Let’s get it straight here, guys. We will not fight the third world war in Ukraine,” he told reporters in March 2022 when he listened to the Pentagon and overruled his secretary of state Antony Blinken on a NATO no-fly zone.

Then just two months ago, in September, Biden deferred to Pentagon realists by opposing long-range British Storm Shadow missiles from being fired by Ukraine deep into Russia for fear it would lead to a direct NATO-Russia war with potentially unimaginable consequences.

And yet now, in a kind of November Surprise, after American voters resoundingly sent his party packing from the White House, a dishonorable Biden, with just weeks to go in power, is at the roulette wheel piling humanity’s chips high on the table to save his reckless Ukraine gamble and to make it even more difficult for incoming president Donald Trump to end the war.

And when the war ends with the inevitable Ukrainian defeat Biden can then blame Trump and try to get himself off the hook for the disaster he created. [See: On Way Out Reckless Biden Allows Deep Russia Strikes]

Did the Pentagon Even Know?

Whereas the Pentagon twice before restrained Biden from starting a direct war with Russia, this time it seems he didn’t even tell the Defense Department, defying it with his extraordinarily irresponsible move.

Asked point blank by reporters on Monday whether Biden had consulted with the brass before unleashing Ukraine with the ATACMS, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh repeatedly dodged the question.

“Q: So the White House has not notified the Pentagon that they’ve allowed Ukraine to start doing long range strike?

DEPUTY PENTAGON PRESS SINGH: I just don’t have anything to add to the reporting over the weekend.

Q: But can you confirm that the Pentagon, like that Biden let Secretary of Defense Austin know that this is greenlighted now?

DEPUTY PENTAGON PRESS SINGH: I cannot confirm the reports and I cannot go into more details about the reporting. All I can tell you is that in terms of your second question on the ATACMS, we over the course of different presidential drawdown packages, we have provided Ukraine with, you know, ATACMS. Our support for Ukraine, you know, continues with different PDAs. But when it comes to the reporting that you’re referencing from over the weekend, I just don’t have more to provide at this time.”


The ATACMS the Pentagon provided previously were for use only within the pre-2022 borders of Ukraine, not to be shot into Russia. Perhaps Singh couldn’t provide any more details beyond the weekend’s reporting because the Pentagon may have only learned of this momentous decision by reading about it in the paper like everybody else.

Russian Restraint Until Trump Takes Over?

Will Moscow resist following through on its warning to hit back at NATO targets until Jan. 20, when Trump takes over and possibly withdraws permission from Ukraine? It may depend on how many ATACMS Ukraine is given and how intense the strikes are.

Biden is evidently among those in NATO who thinks Putin is bluffing. With these ATACAM strikes today the 8-week president thinks he’s calling that bluff, playing poker with the future of humanity. As it happens, on Tuesday, the very day of Ukraine’s strikes, Putin unveiled Russia’s new nuclear war doctrine with two major changes.

The first says: “An aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies of any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state will be regarded as their joint attack.” That clearly would include Ukraine.

The second significant change reads: “The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear arms and/or other weapons of mass destruction against itself and/or its allies … if such an aggression creates a critical threat for their sovereignty and/or territorial integrity.”

The language “critical threat” was substituted for when “the very existence of the state is in jeopardy,” lowering the bar for using a nuclear weapon.

All this was brushed off by the White House in a statement from the U.S. National Security Council that said it had observed “no changes to Russia’s nuclear posture.” In a chilling article presaging a world sleep walking into nuclear annihilation, David Sanger of The New York Times wrote:

“It was telling that the reaction in Washington on Tuesday was just short of a yawn. Officials dismissed the doctrine as the nothingburger of nuclear threats. Instead, the city was rife with speculation over who would prevail as Treasury secretary, or whether Matt Gaetz, a former congressman surrounded by sex-and-drug allegations though never charged, could survive the confirmation process to become attorney general.

The Ukraine war has changed many things: It has ended hundreds of thousands of lives and shattered millions, it has shaken Europe, and it has deepened the enmity between Russia and the United States. But it has also inured Washington and the world to the renewed use of nuclear weapons as the ultimate bargaining chip. The idea that one of the nine countries now in possession of nuclear weapons — with Iran on the threshold of becoming the tenth — might press the button is more likely to evoke shrugs than a convening of the United Nations Security Council.”


https://consortiumnews.com/2024/11/19/u ... wider-war/

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Biden To Send Antipersonnel Mines To Ukraine

U.S. president Joe Biden was found to be too senile to stand for re-election. But that does not hinder the powers that be to let him launch world war III.

After 'allowing' Ukraine to fire U.S. controlled ballistic missiles onto targets in Russia the Biden administration is adding largely prohibited antipersonnel mines into the mix.

Biden approves antipersonnel mines for Ukraine, undoing his own policy - Washington Post

Over 160 countries, including Ukraine, have signed treaties which prohibit the use of antipersonnel mines. During his campaign Biden had spoken against the use of such weapons.

Despite that he has now authorized the provision of antipersonnel land mines to Ukraine. The claimed reason for that is born out of propaganda:

“Russia is attacking Ukrainian lines in the east with waves of troops, regardless of the casualties that they’re suffering,” one of the officials said. “So the Ukrainians are obviously taking losses, and more towns and cities are at risk of falling. These mines were made specifically to combat exactly this.”

There are no and have been no 'waves of troops' with which the Russian army is attacking Ukrainian positions. I challenge everyone to find me a video that shows such a 'wave'.

There are instead small groups of troops which infiltrate Ukrainian positions after these have been ravaged by artillery fire. The WaPo piece admits as much:

Ukrainian troops have struggled to build strong defensive lines in the face of relentless drone sorties and small assault teams.

Antipersonnel mines, even deactivated ones, continue to be a danger for the population even decades after a war ends. It is criminal to use these in a war that has already run its course:

[H]uman rights campaigners said that the U.S. decision to provide antipersonnel land mines to Ukraine — a signatory to the Mine Ban Treaty — is a black mark against Washington.
“It’s a shocking and devastating development,” said Mary Wareham, deputy director of the crisis, conflict and arms division at Human Rights Watch, the advocacy group, who said that even nonpersistent mines hold risks for civilians, require complicated cleanup efforts and are not always reliably deactivated.


The most significant effect of Biden'S decision will be the proliferation of a type of weapon that was rightfully on its it way to total banishment:

The Ukraine conflict has spurred other countries to reevaluate their opposition to antipersonnel land mines. The Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia considered withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention earlier this year in order to bolster their defenses against Russian aggression, although they ultimately decided to reinforce stocks of antitank mines and other tools that are less hazardous to civilians.

Posted by b at 9:47 UTC | Comments (314)

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/11/b ... l#comments

'Human wave assaults' are a tried and true excuse for losers. You find it extensively in the memoirs of Nazi generals, it was said by rebs after the battles of Richmond and Petersburg. Often it is simply superior concentration of force. True, Wagner used that mode of attack at Bakmut, using prison recruited troop who knew what they were getting into, 17k were lost to get a win which Russia needed after the failures of late 2022. But as related above that is not how Russian regulars operate. Putin is keen to keep losses low as possible for domestic politics.

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Use of ICBMs in the Dnepropetrovsk region
November 21, 12:12

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The enemy claims that an intercontinental ballistic missile was launched at night at a target in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Unusual videos of the landings are attached.

(Videos at link.)

The Russian Ministry of Defense has not officially confirmed the launch of ICBMs at Ukraine.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9508584.html

Shelling of Maryino
November 20, 18:02

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On the missile attack using Storm Shadow missiles in the Kursk region.
The village of Maryino on the Rylsk-Lgov highway was shelled.
Judging by the published videos, several were missed.
The launches were from aircraft carriers in the Chernihiv region.
We are waiting for a response

Plus.

New arms deliveries to Ukraine.

USA

Himars MLRS missiles
AT-4, TOW and Jevelin anti-tank systems
155 mm artillery shells
Various drones
Chemical protection suits
Ammunition
Total for $275 million

Germany

4 155 mm PzH 2000 self-propelled guns
1 TRML-4D radar;
47 armored vehicles from FFG;
8 M1070 Oshkosh tank tractors;
8 Caracal airborne assault vehicles;
20 border guard vehicles;
5 engineering vehicles
314 UAVs of various types
Many different ammunition for small arms and artillery
Spare parts for various equipment

On the issue of "freezes and truces". In the coming months, a lot of people will die a violent death

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9507563.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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blindpig
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Nov 22, 2024 12:43 pm

Warnings
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/22/2024

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In this war in which escalations are always reactive, Joe Biden's latest - or perhaps penultimate - move has already had consequences. The news of Washington's lifting of its veto on the use of Western missiles against mainland Russian territory did not come from the White House, but through a media leak that greatly upset the Kiev government. As Zelensky said, what matters is not the words, but the actions, and the missiles must "speak for themselves." They have done so throughout this week, first the ATACMS in Bryansk and later the Storm Shadow in Kursk. Both weapons had already been used in this war, although always in territory that, according to its internationally recognized borders, is part of Ukraine. This is the case, for example, in Crimea, where they have tried to undermine Russian control by attacking command centers and military bases, forcing Russia to reorganize the presence of its troops and especially everything related to the fleet, the main objective of one of kyiv's most important allies, the United Kingdom.

The move has been justified in two ways: the defence of Ukrainian troops in Kursk, in which the role of the 10,000 North Korean troops supposedly preparing to fight in that Russian region has been stressed to the point of exhaustion, and the need to give Ukraine the possibility of improving its position in the negotiations. From the Ukrainian side, the prohibition of attacking Russian territory with Western weapons has always been understood as a way of fighting with one’s hands tied behind one’s back , a perception that is not excessively different from that expressed by Michael Waltz, future National Security Adviser to Donald Trump, who hours before the elections stated in an appearance on NPR that it was necessary to “uncuff Ukraine’s long-range weapons.” Despite the complaints of several members of Trump’s team, who have condemned Biden’s measure as provocative, at least part of the president-elect’s foreign policy circle also intended to use the missile issue as a pressure tool to soften Moscow’s negotiating position. Perhaps it was the surprise, rather than the measure itself, that was most disturbing.

The ATACMS and Storm Shadow attacks on regions of mainland Russia are crossing yet another red line in this war. By means of the tactic of progressive escalation, Washington and Moscow have managed to take steps towards total war without risking, at least not imminently, the direct confrontation that both capitals worked for a long time to avoid and for which direct communication between the two countries persisted, despite everything. The current moment, however, poses a considerably greater danger. As Olaf Scholz revealed months ago, Western missiles involve not only Western intelligence and material, but soldiers from those countries to operate the systems. That is the main reason why, despite Ukraine's pleas and pressure from its Western counterparts and even members of its government and party such as Boris Pistorius, the German chancellor has stood firm and repeatedly refused to "supply missiles capable of reaching Moscow." That is precisely the reason why Ukraine has been demanding Taurus missiles for more than a year.

The change that the bombing of Kursk represents compared to, say, Crimea, is not limited to territory and international law, which still sees the peninsula as Ukrainian territory. Crimea has always been Russia’s main red line in this war. Whether internationally recognised as Russian or not, the territory has been an integral part of the Russian Federation for a decade and only a severe military defeat could return it to Ukrainian control. There is, as Zelensky now claims, no diplomatic way to regain control. The attack on the Kerch bridge, Russia’s main but not only major project in Crimea, or the bombing of infrastructure by the fleet with Western missiles provoked the famous words of Dmitry Medvedev, who threatened Ukraine with “doomsday” if Crimea were attacked. There are many Russian red lines that have been progressively crossed in this war. On each occasion, Moscow’s warning that its patience is not unlimited has been ignored by the West and mocked by kyiv. Ukraine invaded Kursk and Russia did nothing was the argument of the President's Office for weeks, highlighting the weakness it exposed and claiming that there was no danger in continuing to escalate the war into Russian territory. Ukraine's allies abroad reacted in the same way, insisting that despite billions in constant military assistance, Kiev was being left to its own devices in the face of Western indecision. Conveniently, the narrative quickly changed when talk began of the presence of North Korean troops, as yet unseen, supposedly about to be trained and sent to Kursk, sovereign Russian territory.

That presence, a sign of the internationalisation of the war , was the escalation and not the beginning of the bombing of Russian territory with missiles and Western intelligence. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, was even more exaggerated when he said yesterday that the third world war has already begun, since “in 2024, Ukraine is no longer facing Russia. North Korean soldiers are facing Ukraine. Let’s be honest. In Ukraine, Iranian “Shaheds” are already killing civilians absolutely openly, without any shame. North Korean-made missiles are already flying towards Ukraine, and they openly declare it. Chinese shells are exploding in Ukraine, Chinese parts are used in Russian missiles.” Two and a half years of constant supplies of Western weapons have not achieved what Iranian drones, used primarily to saturate Ukrainian defences, are successfully achieving.

Hours after the first ATACMS attack, the United States and some of its staunch allies, such as Spain, announced the immediate closure of their embassies in kyiv in anticipation of a massive bombing that was to take place on Wednesday as a form of Russian retaliation. The high doses of orientalism that the Western discourse has applied to describe Russia as backward, alien to European life and values, and, above all, irrational, deliberately contributed to giving credibility to the possibility that Moscow could carry out an attack much larger than those it has carried out so far against the Ukrainian capital. Yesterday, the embassies reopened with the normality that war allows without the countries that had warned of the danger explaining whether they had any kind of intelligence data suggesting an attack or whether the measures had been due solely to speculation about what Russia would do to take revenge on the West.

All parties, including the Pentagon, admit that the use of Western missiles on Russian territory, as was the case with the bombing of Crimea, will not change the course of the war. The step is intended to undermine Russia's defence difficulties, which will have to protect dozens, if not hundreds, of military bases within range of these weapons, and to cause damage that will slow down the Russian war effort. However, this red line was too serious for there to be no prompt response from Moscow, which finally came yesterday. The Russian ballistic missiles did not attack Kiev but Dnipropetrovsk, a military and symbolically important target for Ukraine. A military city in Soviet times, this regional capital is also industrially key for the country. The objects attacked were not, as The Kiev Independent claims, “any industrial infrastructure”, but the former Yuzhmash. As the Ukrainian media outlet Strana recalled , the factory produced intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in the Soviet era.

These acronyms were repeated throughout the day yesterday because of the loud explosions that had occurred and the rapid Ukrainian accusation that for the first time an intercontinental ballistic missile had been used in combat, an allegation that is doubted by Western experts. “By nature, intercontinental ballistic missiles do not have conventional nuclear warheads. If one had been launched from an operational silo, the United States would have been on alert fearing that it was a nuclear attack,” said a military expert quoted yesterday by the BBC without even considering the scenario that Washington had been warned in advance. Throughout the day, Washington denied that Russia had used intercontinental ballistic missiles and pointed to medium-range missiles, of lower power and range. According to Tass , Washington was warned before the launch, which explains the closure of the embassies the day before.

In the late afternoon, Vladimir Putin gave the official version of the Russian Federation, stating that Moscow had used a non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile. “In response to the use of American and British long-range weapons on November 21 this year, the Russian armed forces carried out a combined strike against one of the sites of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. In combat conditions, a test of one of the latest Russian intermediate-range missile systems was carried out. In this case, with a non-nuclear hypersonic version of a ballistic missile,” he said, adding that “the test was successful, the target was hit.”

“From now on, as we have repeatedly stressed, the conflict in Ukraine, previously provoked by the West, has acquired elements of a global character,” added the Russian president, who insisted that Russia reserves the right to attack military targets in countries that allow its weapons to be used against Russian military targets. The aim yesterday was not only to target specific military infrastructures, but to issue a further warning to Kiev and its Western allies. The gesture makes it clear that there are still steps to take to escalate the war or respond to Western steps. Between Russia doing nothing and nuclear war there are still many intermediate steps.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/11/22/advertencias/

Google Translator

*******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
1. The German government has confirmed the existence of previously leaked plans in case of war with Russia.
2. Lukashenko said that the world is on the brink of World War III.
3. Kim Jong-un said that the situation on the Korean Peninsula could lead to a devastating thermonuclear war.
4. The Russian Armed Forces will develop mechanisms for notifying the civilian population of Ukraine in the event of plans for new ballistic missile strikes.

Well, here's to a bright future.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*****

Russia Showed Its Doom’s Day Weapon In Action

Russia Showed Its Doom's Day Weapon In Action

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On November 21, the modern warfare entered its new stage. The war between Russia and the West has changed forever. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched their advanced medium-range ballistic missile.

The missile struck the State Factory “Production Union Pivdennyi Machine-Building Plant named after O.M. Makarov”, officially abbreviated as Pivdenmash or Yuzhmash in the city of Dnipro (Dnepropetrovsk). According to local reports, the large industrial facility suffered strategic destruction. All communications and traffic were blocked in the area, a lot of ambulances arrived on the spot. Officers of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) came to the area. The scale of destruction is likely to be shown by the satellite imagery soon.

The Ukrainian military claimed that Kinzhal missiles were also used in the attack. Another Patriot system was reportedly destroyed on the outskirts of the city before the main blow.

(Video at link.)

Moscow showed its Doom’s Day weapon in action. The RS-26 Rubezh ballistic missile was reportedly launched from the Kapustin Yar test site in Astrakhan Oblast. The flight time to the target located about 800 kilometers away is estimated to be less than 5 minutes. The speed of the combat units at the final stage of the flight was about 5-7 kilometers per second.

The RS-26 Rubezh is a ballistic missile of medium range, which is normally designed to carry nuclear warhead. It was developed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering as part of the Avangard program. It was created on the basis of the RS-24 Yars. Information about this mobile missile system, like its rocket, is completely classified.

The RS-26 reportedly has a starting weight of about 40-50 tons and is capable of delivering 4 separate combat units at a distance of 2,000 to 6,000 kilometers. Its warhead is three times larger than the Iskander’s warhead. Accordingly, it is much more powerful.

It has an advanced protection against the missile defense system and reportedly four individual thermonuclear warheads with a capacity of 150-300 kilotons each. No foreign air defense system is reportedly able to intercept it.

(Video at link.)

The Rubezh missile is aimed at carrying out nuclear strikes but in apparently in today’s attack the combat units were equipped with metal blanks. The published footage drom Dnipro shows the kinetic effect of the use of such ammunition. It is possible that the rocket was equipped with a Avangard-R hypersonic glider.

The footage also shows that the launched rocket had 6 combat units with 6 warheads in each. It is possible that the Russian military used its secret RS-27 or Yars missiles of the same type.

(Video at link.)

Moscow does not officially comment on the strikes but Russian diplomacy played well the media game that Kiev and its Western patrons imposed. LINK After the strikes, the spokeswomen of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mariya Zakharova held a media briefing, during which she had a ‘surprise’ call. Everyone clearly heard that the strikes reported by the media should not be commented. Thus, this was unofficial confirmation of the attack.

Apparently, Moscow warned the NATO countries about the impending strike in advance. That is why there was hysteria in Kiev the day before. Russian revenge was not long to wait but Kyiv and its patrons were surprised by its scale, target and timing.

After today’s strikes, the world will not be the same. Showing its advanced missile systems in action, Russia has demonstrated that it possesses unique missile technologies and is ready to use them effectively. In the event of the transformation of the conflict in Ukraine into a full-scale war with NATO, such complexes can already be used with standard nuclear ammunition.

Moscow responded to the strikes with NATO missiles on Russian territory in a sophisticated manner, giving a clear sign to Western warmongers. There is no point no point on the European map protected from attacks by such Russian missiles. Today, NATO countries have no ability to intercept them, at least over the territory of Europe.

The exact number of missiles of this type in service with the Russian military is secret. According to open sources, the Russian Federation possesses at least 200 RS-26 Rubezh and PC-24 Yars missiles, which is more thab enough to deal series of devastating blows on its enemies.

Russia responded to escalation. Now the ball is in Western court. The further steps are yet to come but it is clear that the provocations, including strikes with Western cruise missiles on Russian critical military, transport and energy infrastructure will be paid at too high price.

https://www.southfront.press/russia-sho ... in-action/

******

Learn to die and kill: frontline newsletter

Zaluzhny's deathsong. HIV and tuberculosis. Zaporizhzhia, Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar

Events in Ukraine
Nov 21, 2024

Today’s topics:

Former head of the army Zaluzhny’s battle cry: ‘There is almost no chance to survive. Learn not to fear death.’

Proles with tuberculosis and HIV to the army

And the frontline itself. The numbers I drew on the DeepState map below correspond to the locations below:

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November 21
Will there be a Russian offensive in the southern Zaporizhzhia region?

The Kurakhove direction and the war against official lies. Weak units and the need to retreat.

The Pokrovsk direct - golf cars and tanks

The Chasiv Yar/Toretsk direction. Movement on a long-frozen section of the front.

To die and kill
To begin with, an interesting call to arms by former army chief Valery Zaluzhny (he was removed from his post at the start of the year after a poll found he was much more popular than Zelensky). It was delivered on the 19th at a training ground for Ukrainian soldiers in the UK, the country he was sent to as ambassador to push him out of Ukrainian politics (despite being practically unable to speak English): (Video at link.)

"...The war becomes more brutal with each passing day. It leaves almost no chance to survive. However, even so, the war will fear those who are ready to join it.

You must learn this here. Learn not to fear death. Learn not to fear looking the enemy in the eye. This is very, very important. Above all, you must learn here to protect yourself. Learn to survive here.

Second, look each other in the eye carefully. Remember one another. You must remember each other for life and worry about where your comrade is—where Vasyl is, where Petro is, what happened to him, is he alive?

On the battlefield, look at a comrade just like you and try to save him. Do whatever it takes to protect your comrade as much as possible.

But this is not enough—it is not enough to protect yourself and your friend, your brother-in-arms.

You must also complete the mission. For this, you will need to kill. Kill without hesitation when you see the enemy. Kill him first before he tries to kill you or your comrade.

Learn this here, please. Love one another. And remember Ukraine. If you fall, perhaps someone else will take your place.

But Ukraine must be preserved. Our children, our women, our parents must live in peace, no matter the cost to us. We have only one Ukraine. And we will definitely win. Together. Glory to Ukraine!"


As some Ukrainian commentators have noted, such calls to accept death must not be particularly hard to make as a foreign ambassador in an Atlantic island. One of Zaluzhny’s scandals was that he left the army for a civilian career by receiving a medical slip regarding an unknown ‘disability’. As parliamentarian Bezuhla noted in March:

"The 'disabled' Zaluzhnyi and Shaptala were discharged through the medical commission, yet they supported the mobilization of individuals with third-group disabilities and opposed the possibility of discharge for those with second-group disabilities 🤔.

Ordinary men with tuberculosis and HIV must serve in the army - or those with cancer, as I wrote here. But top generals including Zaluzhny and Sodol (see this article for his conflict with Azov) both easily escaped the article through ‘disability slips’.

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And far from Zaluzhny’s comfortable death-worship, here is what western-funded polls say about people lucky enough to be stuck inside Ukraine: Keep in mind that polls should not be seen to reflect actual general opinion, given the conditions of repression for ‘treasonous’ pacifism, as I wrote this week.

Instead, polls are valuable for showing trends over time - the amount of people willing to take the risk of voicing one’s opinion. At a certain point, the danger of continued war outweighs the risk of having the ‘wrong’ opinion.

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Zaporizhzhia
DeepState, November 13. Keep in mind that Zaporizhzhia is one of Ukraine’s biggest and most industrially important cities, with a population of 700,000 (pre-war, in any case).

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ℹ️ Offensive on Zaporizhzhia, Dam Explosion, Huliaipole, and Geographic Facts

🌐 Various reports are circulating online, often incorrectly linking unrelated events, causing confusion and misinformation. Let’s break it down step by step:

🟡 Offensive on Zaporizhzhia
For about a month, there have been rumors of a "large-scale" offensive on Zaporizhzhia, supposedly starting near Vasylivka, particularly in Kamianske. It's unclear what these claims are based on, as no significant troop buildup has been observed in the Vasylivka area, contrary to the rumors. For some time, two airborne assault divisions have been present there—one of which has been partially relocated—and a new regiment made up of various assembled units has been identified.

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Note the (now famous) town of Enerhodar on the far left - location of the nuclear power plant Ukraine has tried to take back/attack so many times

Currently, there is no noticeable increase in activity around Kamianske. If something does happen, it’s important to prepare physically rather than fuel fear with daily alarmist statements to the residents of Zaporizhzhia. The situation in Robotyne remains unchanged, with no signs of escalation.

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This village was a famous battleground in Ukraine’s failed 2023 counter-offensive

🟡 Dam Explosion in Vasylivka
Yesterday, reports began spreading that Russian forces intend to blow up the dam in Vasylivka. However, it’s unclear how this could be achieved, considering the dam was already destroyed in 2022 and currently holds almost no water.

🟡 The "Offensive on Zaporizhzhia" in Relation to Huliaipole
Mentions of an offensive on Zaporizhzhia, along with activities near Huliaipole, have been tied together due to geographical misunderstandings and reports of Russian advances in the Rivnopil-Novodarivka area and attempts to break through from Staromayorske to Makarivka.

First, Rivnopil, Novodarivka, and Makarivka are in Donetsk Oblast and geographically far from the south.

Second, these settlements are not near Huliaipole, so it’s unclear why Huliaipole is being brought up in this context.

Third, there’s no reason to reference Zaporizhzhia Oblast here. While it borders Rivnopil, this proximity does not justify claims of an "offensive on Zaporizhzhia."


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Kurakhove and the war against lies

To begin with, here is a comparison of the DeepState maps for the Kurakhove frontline.

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November 12

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November 19

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November 21

DeepState, November 16:

🏚 Situation Around Kurakhove

🏹 The enemy continues to exert pressure from the north, south, and east:

🟡 North of the City
The Russians persist in their attempts to gain a foothold in the village of Sontsivka and fully occupy it. They are also pressing on Novoselydivka, but their primary focus on the northern front of Kurakhove is the Berestky-Illinka sector. Regarding these two settlements, we wrote a post here yesterday. Despite contradictory claims and false reports being sent up the chain of command, Illinka is occupied, and individual enemy infantry units have even been visually spotted in the Berestky area. The Russian objective in this area is to advance to Stari Terny.

🟡 Eastern Outskirts of Kurakhove
The eastern outskirts are under constant pressure from Russian forces conducting mechanized assaults and attempting to infiltrate the city's edge. They have also tried to land infantry in the private sector to establish positions. A recent assault succeeded with their occupation of School No. 3, though it has since been cleared of enemy forces.

❗️ Situation Between Dalne and Uspenivka
A "pocket" along the Antonivka-Katerynivka-Yelyzavetivka-Illinka-Romanivka-Hannivka line is under threat of future enemy control. The Russians are persistently advancing through Dalne toward Uspenivka, achieving some successes. Uspenivka is crucial for logistics and overall control of the situation for Ukrainian forces in the pocket.
Once again, false reports up the chain of command are likely the reason for a lack of attention to the flanks in this area. The situation is deteriorating, and one day we may wake up to find the enemy has reached Uspenivka—by then, it might be too late.


(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... newsletter

******

By sending skilled professionals to the front lines, Ukraine shows the failure of its war efforts

Lucas Leiroz

November 21, 2024

According to recent reports, the Kiev regime is revoking the exemption from conscription for military engineers.

The situation in Ukraine is deteriorating rapidly, reflecting a reality that the leaders of the Kiev regime have long tried to hide behind empty promises of Western support. As the conflict prolongs, the shortage of human resources at the front has become one of the country’s greatest weaknesses, forcing the authorities to reverse their policies of exemptions from mobilization.

Now, those who were previously tasked with maintaining the country’s military infrastructure, such as Ukrspecexport’s and other key defense companies’ workers, are being called to serve on the front lines. The conscription of these professionals, who were previously responsible for maintaining Soviet, Russian and Ukrainian aircraft and systems in various parts of the world, reflects the imminent collapse of Kiev’s military capabilities. Their call-up is not only a desperate measure, but clear evidence that Ukraine, in its attempt to resist, is sabotaging itself by dismantling its own skilled workforce.

For years, Ukraine has relied on its expertise in Soviet-era military technology, providing maintenance services and exporting repairs to countries that still use Soviet equipment. This industry was, for a time, one of the country’s main sources of revenue and influence, allowing Kiev to remain relevant on the geopolitical arena. However, as Russian offensives intensified, Ukraine’s industrial facilities were systematically destroyed, making it impossible for Ukraine to maintain its mask of military power. Russian attacks have strategically destroyed the industrial base that supported Kiev’s armed forces, irreversibly weakening its critical and defense infrastructure. This is evidenced by Ukraine’s increasing inability to repair and maintain its own equipment, a situation that is now directly reflected in the shortage of specialists to repair what remains of its military machinery.

The impact of this situation is really deep. Not only has Ukraine lost the ability to maintain its combat systems, but it is also now forced to call up its best technicians and engineers to serve in the trenches, rather than maintaining what is still functioning in its defense industrial base. If even the most qualified professionals, who are responsible for ensuring the operation of aircraft and other sophisticated systems, are being sent to the battlefield, this points to a complete structural collapse of the Ukrainian military apparatus. It is no longer a question of simply fighting, but of ensuring the survival of the armed forces with extremely limited resources. The country is literally exhausting its ability to maintain the war, leading to its own unavoidable defeat.

This forced mobilization of specialists shows not only a failure in the military field, but also a broader fiasco in the country’s governance. The decision to send its best professionals to the front lines is a direct echo of the exhaustion of the Ukrainian political system. In addition to being a clear sign that Ukraine can no longer maintain effective mobilization, this measure puts vital sectors of society at risk. Soon, other professionals in essential fields, such as doctors, professors, and scientists, may be called up, further weakening the country’s social and economic structure. What remains of Ukraine’s infrastructure is being eroded by a war that Kiev clearly cannot win, and its desperate mobilization only accelerates its collapse.

Meanwhile, the West, which promised Ukraine unconditional support, has increasingly distanced itself. NATO powers that once provided military and financial assistance now appear to be focusing on other geopolitical priorities – despite the recent wave of irresponsible “authorizations” for the use of long-range missiles in deep strikes. The growing indifference of Western allies reveals the reality: Ukraine is being left to fight alone in a conflict it has already lost. Rhetoric supporting Ukrainian sovereignty now sounds empty in the face of the country’s inability to sustain its own war. Ukraine is no longer seen as a strategic ally, but as a destroyed nation that has exhausted its options.

For Russia, the situation in Ukraine is not a surprise. The strategy of targeted strikes aimed at destroying Ukraine’s industrial capacity has been playing its role to perfection. Kiev’s inability to maintain its military infrastructure, coupled with the mobilization of technicians and engineers, demonstrates that Ukraine is being flooded by the pressure of war. The effort to keep the armed forces “filly” operational is rapidly depleting, and the reality is becoming undeniable: Ukraine no longer has the means to continue the fight. The conscription of its best specialists to the front lines is a clear admission that the country’s war system is collapsing, while Russia continues to achieve its strategic and territorial objectives – while still having a vast network of reserve resources to draw on if necessary.

Ukraine’s military collapse is on full display. It is no longer a question of “if” Ukraine will be defeated, but of “when.” The desperate mobilization of all sectors of Ukrainian society is just another sign that the war is already lost for the Kiev regime. The scenario is clear: the Ukrainian “resistance,” sustained by Western promises that never materialized, is disintegrating, and Russia is merely watching the inevitable collapse of a nation that made the wrong choices and refused to accept reality.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... r-efforts/

******

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Russia’s Revised Nuclear Doctrine and the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War
by Gordonhahn
November 21, 2024

In response to the escalating NATO-Ukrainian threat to Russia’s national security, embodied most recently and intensively by the U.S., British, and French use of their own missiles on pre-2022 Russian territory (outside Crimea, annexed in 2014), Moscow adopted and activated into law a revised Nuclear Doctrine (ND) on November 19th. The original decision to revise Russia’s ND and, indeed, lower the threshold for use came in September when NATO countries first began discussing the use of ATACMs, Storm Shadows, Scalp, etc., which can only be fired with the participation of U.S., British, and/or French officers, making them and their countries direct combatants in a war against Russia, as Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at the time and quite logically so. This and the timing in which the September discussion was revived in November at the same time completion of the ND revisions was expected gives evidence to the fact that this Western course and escalation s in the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War is the driver of the ND revisions. Similarly, NATO-Ukraine’s use on November 18-19 of ATACMs and Storm Shadows by NATO against targets on Russian territory proper (Bryansk and Kursk) internationally recognized demonstrate how several stipulations in the new doctrine are intended by the Kremlin to address the escalation by NATO to direct involvement by its officers’ control over the launch and attack process of such missiles. Moreover, there are indications that conditions are now such that, according to the new doctrine, Russia’s use of nuclear weapons against Ukrainian, American, British, and French targets is justifiable and thus, regretfully, feasible.

Much of the discussion around the ND revisions centers around Articles 9-12. They address the security problem posed to Russia by the NATO-Ukraine alliance and the war it sparked with Russia. Articles 9-10 note: “9. Nuclear deterrence is also carried out against States that provide their controlled territory, air and/or sea space and resources for the preparation and implementation of aggression against the Russian Federation. 10. Aggression of any state from the military coalition (bloc, union) against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies is considered as aggression of this coalition (bloc, union) as a whole” (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75598, pp. 2-3). These new articles are a result of, and a response to NATO countries various forms of support for Ukraine, particularly its invasion into Kursk as well as drome and missile attacks on numerous Russian regions, aside from Crimea and the four Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia.

Several subsequent Articles in Russia’s revised ND reduce the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons and demonstrate just how close we are approaching said threshold, as far as the Kremlin is concerned. In many ways, these specific Articles constitute the core of the warning that Putin’s decision to revise the ND is; the revision of the ND is an exercise of nuclear deterrence in and of itself.

Much attention has been focused on Article 11 and properly so. It stipulates: “Aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies by any non-nuclear State with the participation or support of a nuclear State is considered as their joint attack” (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75598, p. 3). This is indeed crucial because it attributes joint responsibility to NATO’s non-nuclear states and Ukraine along with NATO’s nuclear powers – the U.S., UK, and France. Thus, Ukraine is tied to the potential nuclear threat to Russia or Belarus posed by the three leading NATO states. Kiev is placed on the nuclear escalatory ladder and targeted for nuclear deterrence, given the implied nuclear threat it poses by putting Russia into conflict and ever greater conflict with NATO and its nuclear powers. The November 21st Russian attack on Dnipro, Kiev using a new intercontinental ballistic conventional not nuclear missile among others, was an exercise in deterrence if implied, if you will. This attack was in accordance with Article 11’s attribution of joint responsibility for Ukraine and NATO and its nuclear powers. Article 12 states: “Nuclear deterrence is aimed at ensuring that a potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies” (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75598, p. 3). The invocation of inevitable retaliation is particularly chilling in light of the Russian ND’s Article 11 and the November 21st Russian attack on Dnipro—already a nuclear deterrence attack sans the nuclear warhead.

In response to the use of six ATACMs, the Russians deployed a new hypersonic, intercontinental missile with a conventional but still unclear explosive charge. In seeming proportion to the six ATACMs, the new Russian missile attacked in 6 waves each with 6 missiles, suggesting a multiple conventional warhead. There is speculation that there was no explosive, the attack having been a test, or detonation occurred deep underground (www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVrLEcxI7Wc&t=933s, at the 1:30 mark). Putin addressed the nation and the world after the Dnipro attack to explain Russia’s deterrence goal while again offering negotiations to end the war. He noted:

“In response to the use of American and British long-range weapons, on November 21 of this year, the Russian Armed Forces launched a combined attack on one of the facilities of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine. In combat conditions, one of the newest Russian medium–range missile systems was tested, in this case with a ballistic missile in a nuclear-free hypersonic equipment. Our rocket scientists called it ‘Hazel.’ The tests were successful, and the launch goal was achieved. On the territory of Ukraine, in the city of Dnepropetrovsk, one of the largest and most famous industrial complexes ever since the Soviet Union was hit, which still produces rocket technology and other weapons. … (W)e are conducting combat tests of the Oreshnik missile system in response to the aggressive actions of NATO countries against Russia. The issue of further deployment of medium-range and shorter-range missiles will be decided by us, depending on the actions of the United States and its satellites. The targets for destruction during further tests of our newest missile systems will be determined by us based on threats to the security of the Russian Federation. We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities, and in the event of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond just as decisively and in a mirror (proportional) manner. I recommend that the ruling elites of those countries that have plans to use their military contingents against Russia seriously think about this” (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75614).

The next to last sentence is the operative one per our discussion of nuclear deterrence and usage and echoes the revised ND’s Article 9.

The most important overlooked article in the discussions of the new ND is the 19th, in particular its fourth (‘g’) and fifth (‘d’) paragraphs indicated alphabetically in, of course, Russian (if in English they would be listed as ‘d’ and ‘e’). Art. 19 stipulates the conditions under which, the threats in response to which the Russian President may authorize the use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. Several of the stipulated conditions or threats appear to have been already realized or could arguably concluded to have been. For example, Art. 19’s paragraph ‘g’ states that a threat justifying the use of Russia’s nuclear forces is “aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) the Republic of Belarus as members of the Union State with the use of conventional weapons, creating a critical threat to their sovereignty and/or territorial integrity” (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75598, p. 6). The NATO-Ukraine Kursk incursion when it is as now backed up by massive missiles if not massive missile strikes could be construed as creating ‘a critical threat to (Russia’s) sovereignty and/or territorial integrity’. By some in Putin’s inner circle, if not by Putin himself. Surely, we are approaching a scenario that could reasonably be so construed.

Art. 19’s paragraph ‘d’ in Russian (what would be paragraph ‘e’, that is the 5th, if in English) stipulates as cause to use nuclear weapons “the receipt of reliable information about the massive launch (take-off) of means of aerospace attack (strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, unmanned, hypersonic and other aircraft) and their crossing of the state border of the Russian Federation” (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75598, p. 6). Although less applicable as of the first uses of ATACMs and Storm Shadows by NATO on Russian territory proper in Bryansk and Kursk), this paragraph could become salient in nuclear use decision-making, if NATO aircraft crossed into Russian airspace proper in order to fire NATO missiles such that they could reach Moscow. This a real option, misguided albeit, for NATO/Ukraine.

The upshot of all this, again, is that we are moving closer to scenarios in which Putin or a less cautious successor might choose to use a tactical nuclear weapon in order to end such threats as enumerated above or deter their further posing. I do not think that Putin, who is an extremely rational and cautious actor, will opt to use even a single tactical nuclear weapon, unless a situation, say, like the one in Kursk should drastically deteriorate from the Russian point of view: for example, if by some miracle Ukraine’s forces in Kursk were somehow to regroup and be approaching the Kursk nuclear power plant and/or nuclear weapons storage facility. But the actual situation on the ground is quite the reverse. Ukrainian forces are being or have been surrounded, depending on which one is talking about, and are likely to be fully destroyed or mostly destroyed during a hasty retreat. Thus, the ATACMs may be a way to ensure an open extraction corridor, and little more when it comes to Kursk.

But the attack on Bryansk suggests a more expansive NATO-Ukraine agenda for the missiles. Since NATO has consistently escalated its involvement in terms of weapons deployments to Kiev, we can expect a similar escalation regarding the use of the ATACMs and other missiles. Putin will match them every step up the way. He may be forced to rise up the escalatory ladder more rapidly, given mounting public and elite pressure to get tough and fight a war instead of his ‘special military operation.’

https://gordonhahn.com/2024/11/21/russi ... inian-war/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Nov 23, 2024 1:01 pm

The myth of unity
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/23/2024

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After presenting his Peace Formula , a capitulation document addressed to Russia, and his Victory Plan , the enumeration of what his foreign allies must do to defeat Russia and the economic benefits they can obtain, Zelensky is presenting these days the first draft of his Resilience Plan . After the two plans addressed to his enemy and his suppliers, the third in discord was to be addressed to the population. One of the points of the long-awaited plan of the President's Office for the population is unity. Zelensky proposes, for example, the creation of a ministry dedicated to this, although for the moment it has not been specified what its powers would be. As in the previous cases, the presentation of the umpteenth proposal was limited to an enumeration of areas in which the country has problems, against which the Government does not propose more than vagueness, set phrases and wishes for the future.

The discourse of unity has been key in the Ukrainian narrative, which has replaced with that idea the need for legitimation of a president whose mandate expired months ago. Thanks to the good handling of communication and the invaluable support of the Western press machine, Ukraine has built for its president a heroic character who is above any division that may have existed in the country in the past. In the same way, the idea of ​​“the Ukrainians” has been used as a uniform whole, a society that follows, without hesitation, its president and its government. For a long time, especially in the first months, the polls have also favoured this discourse. The polls that were published to monitor the opinion of the population showed the agreement of the majority with its authorities: a large majority wanted to continue fighting and rejected territorial concessions as a compromise to achieve the end of the war. The data is always subject to nuances, generally ignored. How representative could the polls be in Ukraine when millions of people had fled the country or were internally displaced, with the difficulties of connecting and accessing people? Was the population close to the front really accessible? All these aspects have been generally ignored when analysing the results, mainly because the data was consistent with the script of the authorities.

Despite the low importance given to it, the most important detail of the surveys carried out in Ukraine in the last decade has been the exclusion of the population outside the control of kyiv. Since 2014, Ukraine has had no intention of knowing or respecting the opinion of the population of Donbass and Crimea, territories that it continued to claim as its own. Since the Russian invasion in 2022, the same has happened with those who have remained in the areas under Russian control, have returned to them at some point or have taken refuge in Russia. This population, whose opinions are uncomfortable for Ukraine because they break with the discourse of unity of all the Ukrainian people, has been made to disappear, making it clear that, for the Government of kyiv, they simply do not count. The same is true of the latest survey published by Gallup, which shows the change that has occurred in the responses of the Ukrainian people to the most important questions: whether they want to continue fighting until final victory and whether they are willing to make territorial concessions in exchange for peace. “In 2023-2024, some occupied territories with entrenched Russian control were excluded due to lack of coverage by Ukrainian mobile operators. The exclusion amounts to approximately 10-12% of the population,” the polling firm writes, estimating the size of the theoretical population of Ukraine that it believes remains in the territories of Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea, most likely underestimating it.

Even if the most pro-Russian part of the population is excluded - Ukraine can claim that Russia's occupation of Crimea and Donbass is a denial of reality, although the last decade makes it clear that thousands of Ukrainians have actively fought against Kiev's troops and have their own negative opinion of the country that wants to reconquer their territory - the data published by Gallup show tremendous war fatigue and a certain amount of hopelessness. Particularly significant is the decline in the proportion of the population that believes that Ukraine will be admitted to NATO in the next decade, which has fallen from 69% to 51% in just one year. Equally significant is the loss of faith in accession to the European Union, which is much more feasible and practically a fait accompli, which has fallen from 73% to 61%. Twenty-two percent and 15% think that Ukraine will never succeed in joining NATO and the EU respectively, a sign of a loss of confidence in European allies, not necessarily a loss of desire to join those blocs. Also striking is the decline in confidence in the United States, which is not only appearing this year - in an election period and with great uncertainty about the position of both candidates (the survey was carried out in October) - but also in 2023. And despite having denied Ukraine its most repeated request, confidence in Germany's leadership, which has remained relatively stable without the large rise in 2022 that the United States did have, is ten points higher.

The most representative aspect of the study is, without a doubt, the evolution of the proportion of the Ukrainian population living in the territories under kyiv's control who are willing to continue fighting until final victory and the position on the possibility of making territorial concessions as a compromise to achieve the end of the war. The result that has attracted the most attention these days is the graph that shows the evolution of those who are in favour of fighting until the war is won and those who defend the need to negotiate to end the conflict as soon as possible. From 73% in 2022, the crest of the nationalist wave, the beginning of the flow of arms supplies and the three great victories of Ukraine (kyiv, Kherson, Kharkiv), it has dropped to a poor 38% at this time. The percentage of the population that sees the need to seek a negotiated end for the first time, and does so clearly (52% versus 38%) that of those who wish to continue fighting. Until now, polls had shown a decline in the proportion of people willing to fight on the front, a position that was compatible with the understanding that Ukraine should continue fighting. The current data no longer support the theory of unity and, more worryingly for Zelensky, neither does the belief in victory or the need to wait until a position of strength is achieved to begin negotiations with Russia.

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Change in the attitude of the Ukrainian population regarding support for continuing fighting between 2022 and 2024.

When displaying regional data, Gallup divides Ukraine into five regions: North (Yyomir, Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv), South (Nikolaev, Odessa, and Kherson), East (Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Kharkiv), Center (Vinnitsa, Kirovograd, Poltava, and Cherkasy), and West (Ivano-Frankoivsk, Khmelnitsky, Volyn, Transcarpathia, Lviv, Rovno, Tenopil, and Chernivtsi). Completely excluded are those regions of Ukraine along its 1991 borders that have no significant population under Ukrainian control—that is, not only Crimea but also Luhansk, which is almost entirely under Russian control. The decline in the proportion of the population willing to continue fighting is dramatic in the areas where the front is closest (27% in the east, 40% in the south), but it is also significant even in the most remote areas, such as the nationalist stronghold of the west, which falls from 83% to 43%.

Another fact that had not been revealed until now is the fact that the majority is in favour of negotiations even if they could involve territorial concessions, the great taboo that kyiv has staunchly refused to accept for years. “More than half of this group (52%) agree that Ukraine should be open to making some territorial concessions as part of a peace agreement to end the war, while 38% disagree and another 10% do not know. Gallup did not ask for further details about the level of territorial concessions that the population would be willing to make,” the report explains.

“Most Ukrainians want their government to negotiate an armistice as soon as possible. Against the Ukrainians are their so-called ‘supporters’ in the elite media, think tanks and political class in the United States and the European Union, who continue to pressure Ukraine to fight to the last Ukrainian,” journalist Mark Ames wrote on his social media profile. If he wanted to, Zelensky could rely on public opinion, and not just on the growing certainty among his partners that the war cannot be won, to make the switch to diplomacy. But as long as the balance of power does not allow Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength, escalation, especially now that kyiv has Western permission to use long-range missiles on Russian territory, will remain the only acceptable path.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/11/23/31007/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of repelling the attempted invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the territory of the Russian Federation in the Kursk Region (as of November 23, 2024) The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to defeat the formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk Region. - Units of the North group of forces defeated the formations of the 41st , 47th and 115th mechanized, 5th and 17th tank, 82nd airborne assault brigades, 36th marine brigade, 112th , 117th and 129th territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Alexandria, Gornal, Darino, Kruglenkoye, Leonidovka, Mirny, Nizhny Klin, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Novoivanovka, Plekhovo and Sverdlikovo. - Strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation , artillery fire hit enemy manpower and equipment in the areas of the populated areas of Alexandria, Viktorovka, Guevo, Dar'ino, Zeleny Shlyakh, Kazachaya Loknya, Kurilovka, Lebedevka, Leonidove, Malaya Loknya, Martynovka, Melovy, Nikolaevka, Nikolsky, Staraya Sorochina, Sudzha, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, as well as Basovka, Belovody, Zhuravka, Loknya, Miropolye and Yunakovka in the Sumy region. Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 360 servicemen. Two infantry fighting vehicles were destroyed: a Marder made in Germany and a CV-90 made in Sweden, two armored combat vehicles, 25 cars, three artillery pieces, eight mortars and two electronic warfare stations. - In total, during the military operations in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 35,050 servicemen, 215 tanks, 149 infantry fighting vehicles, 120 armored personnel carriers, 1,192 armored combat vehicles, 1,017 cars, 300 artillery pieces, 40 launchers of multiple launch rocket systems, including 11 HIMARS and six MLRS made in the USA, 13 launchers of anti-aircraft missile systems, seven transport and loading vehicles, 70 electronic warfare stations, 13 counter-battery radars, four air defense radars,
27 units of engineering and other equipment, including 13 engineering vehicles for clearing obstacles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit , as well as six armored repair and recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle.

***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of November 23, 2024 ) Main points:

- The South group of forces repelled a counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in one day, the enemy lost up to 490 soldiers;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 400 people in one day in the area of ​​responsibility of the Central group;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 410 fighters and four field ammunition depots from the actions of the West group of forces;

- The North and Dnepr groups destroyed about 80 Ukrainian fighters in one day;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 155 soldiers and two Leopard tanks in the area of ​​responsibility of the East group;

- The Russian Armed Forces struck military airfields of Ukraine, as well as enemy force concentrations in 149 districts.

- The Russian Armed Forces destroyed a MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force on the ground .

▫️The tactical situation was improved by the units of the "East" group of forces . The formations of the 32nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , the 113th , 118th , 127th and 241st Territorial Defense Brigades were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Volnoye Pole, Razliv, Oktyabr and Novy Komar of the Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy's losses amounted to 155 servicemen, three tanks, two of them "Leopard" made in Germany, six vehicles, a 122 mm multiple launch rocket system "Grad" , a 155 mm howitzer M198 made in the USA, and an electronic warfare station "Anklav" .



▫️Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 110th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , the 103rd , 118th Territorial Defense Brigades and the 15th National Guard Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Novopavlivka, Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporizhia region and Kazatskoe in the Kherson region.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 40 servicemen, four vehicles, and the Bukovel-AD and Anklav-N electronic warfare stations .

▫️ Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 149 areas.

▫️A MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force was destroyed on the ground .

▫️ Air defense systems shot down three French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs , eight US-made HIMARS rockets , and 59 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 649 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 36,559 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,491 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,492 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles, 18,405 field artillery pieces and mortars, 28,661 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

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Thunderbolt from the Skies: Putin's Doomsday Weapon Puts NATO on Final Notice

Simplicius
Nov 21, 2024

<snip>

The escalations continue accelerating as we inch closer to nuclear war. Russia has now confirmed to have unprecedentedly used a new IRBM weapons system named ‘Oreshnik’ to strike Ukraine’s Yuzhmash enterprise facility in Dnipro: (Video at link.)

Though I shudder at having to write such a seemingly clickbaity lead line, and while I myself do not actually expect it to come to any sort of WWIII scenario any time soon, one cannot but accurately describe the situation as having brought the doomsday clock a few seconds closer to midnight.

The main reason for this is that, essentially, Ukraine is getting exactly what it wants, underscored by Zelensky immediately launching into an online tirade calling for allies “to do something” against Russia for this escalation. Remember: Zelensky actually unironically wants Russia to outright nuke Ukraine. It would be a very tiny price to pay for salvation. A single nuke would do no appreciable damage at all, but would obviously change the global calculus against Russia. Thus, the developments could only be regarded as quite promising for Yermak and his small factotum.

Of course, they come with great risk for Ukraine as well. It all depends on the allies’ stomach for escalation. Russia’s actions could yield a measure of deterrence and strategic paralysis.

And why would that be? For that, let’s first listen to Putin’s address to the country in its entirety: (Video at link.)

Above is the whole thing, but below I will highlight the most significant portion. Listen very carefully to what Putin says regarding future potential strikes of this same weapons system: (Video at link.)

Here’s the full official transcript from the Kremlin site.

The targets to be hit during further tests of our newest missile systems will be determined by us based on threats to the security of the Russian Federation. We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow the use of their weapons against our facilities, and in the event of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond just as decisively and in a mirror image. I recommend that the ruling elites of those countries that have plans to use their military contingents against Russia also think about this seriously.

The bolded above is a clear warning to the West that Russia reserves the right to strike NATO countries directly if they continue escalating. Given that the weapon cannot be intercepted by any system, and that it reaches its targets within minutes, all European assets are now officially put on notice.

Brief Digression: Maryino, Kursk Strike
Let’s clarify a few things.

Firstly, in the address, Putin reported forthrightly on Ukraine’s recent attacks—the ATACMS strike on 67th GRAU arsenal in Bryansk, and the new Storm Shadow attack on some command post in Kursk. Putin gave the update that no real damage was caused in the Bryansk attack, which we reported on last time; to now, there still is no satellite BDA photos or any other secondary information even remotely suggesting that any damage was sustained there. As such, as of the moment, it appears reports were accurate that Russian S-400 systems did shoot down the ATACMS, in many ways a much easier target than the ‘stealthy’ low-flying Storm Shadows.

However, on the Kursk hit, Putin admitted there were casualties, however he states the command staff were not harmed—only perimeter defense units; from the Kremlin transcript:

As a result of the attack and anti-aircraft combat, there are, unfortunately, victims, dead and wounded from among the personnel of the external protection units of the facility and maintenance personnel. The command and operational staff of the control center was not affected and is conducting the actions of our troops to destroy and expel enemy units from the Kursk region in a normal mode.

The latest Western narrative claims North Korean generals were taken out, although they’ve already walked it back by now claiming only a single ‘general’ was ‘wounded’:

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https://www.wsj.com/world/senior-north- ... s-c138121b

The laughable walk-back suggests the whole story is phony. And anyone with an iota of military knowledge can see why:

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The attack hit a compound at roughly 51.58655106409714, 34.94757392496846 geolocation. What does that tell us?

The location is precisely 19km from Korenevo where heavy fighting in the Kursk region had previously taken place, and 30km from Pogrebki, the current heaviest frontline there:

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Anyone who knows how real military HQ and C2 node distribution works, knows that even battalion command would be hard-pressed to field their HQ at such distances, let alone brigade or higher echelon. On the AFU side, battalions generally stick to 15-30km, with brigade HQ as far as 30-50km or sometimes even 100km from front.

Army group level HQs—which is where actual starred generals reside—would not be anywhere closer than 100-200km if not more. For instance, Russia’s famed Rostov supreme command HQ is nearly 220km to the closest LOC around Selidove, west Donetsk. At best, 30km could potentially have a brigade HQ with Lieutenant Colonel staff, and even that is iffy. So talk of “generals” and supreme commanders being wiped out is a joke for casuals with no military knowledge; although, keep in mind Lieutenant Generals and such can always visit a front temporarily and be targeted, when inspecting HQs, etc.

Of course, if you were to look up the standards in textbooks they would be a little shorter, because back in WWI, WWII, etc., C2 nodes could be much closer to the front, as there was no pervasive ISR. So you could find brigades at 10-15km from LOC, etc. Now, even signal-repeater-enhanced FPV drones are regularly hunting 20-40km behind the lines, which means HQs are extended to double the distance or more.

Check the documentary I recently posted, showing Russia’s 144th Divisional HQ, which is in some forest belt far from the Terny front. It’s headed by a mere colonel (Полко́вник), but based on clues in the video, they appear minimum 50-100km from the front.

Though it’s a bit tangential—I had intended to cover this anyway, prior to today’s events—here’s a quick primer on why Ukraine was able to strike this ‘command node’ in Kursk with Storm Shadows to begin with.

The simple answer is that if you look at the map above, as shown, only ~30km separates the site from the LOC. Such a distance is too small to put serious air defenses inside of, because they would be vulnerable to frontline tactical drones, FPVs, etc. That means all Russian major AD, particularly S-300/400, but even Tor, Pantsir, etc., would be positioned behind, usually at least 20-30km from LOC if not more. That’s because FPVs, as mentioned earlier, can now go upwards of 40km with repeaters, and they are hellacious against expensive Tor AD systems.

But since the Storm Shadow flies very low, due to the physics of radar horizon it can only be detected at maybe 10-15km or less, depending on surrounding terrain.

So, looking at the front again:

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The red line represents roughly the LOC, the die is roughly where the Storm Shadow attack happened. The AD trucks represent premier AD systems positioned somewhere to the rear. It doesn’t mean they can’t cover the entire area, including past the LOC near Sudzha, etc.—after all, S-400 has over 400km range. But that’s only for high flying objects. Very low stealthy objects require additional support to be seen at decent distance, like radar masts such as the 40V6 or AWACS flying high; and we know AWACS is one area Russia has some troubles so it’s hard to know how thoroughly they cover the region.

Even if you detect the object, given that the AD system is far back, the Storm Shadows have a good chance of reaching the target first, before the AD missiles can even get to them. This is the challenge of low flying missiles in particular.

The second most important thing: Western pundits rejoice that the strike “proves” how F-16s or other platform are able to hit Russia with Western missiles. The problem is, this strike proves—thus far at least—they’re too scared to launch them deep. The fact they targeted something right near the LOC indicates that the Su-24s, Mig-29s, or other carrying platforms (F-16s almost certainly not risked from their far-west Ukraine refuge) were terrified of coming anywhere close to the Russian border, as they would be shot down by S-400 or related systems.

You see, Ukraine’s export variant Storm Shadows are said to go 300km max, which means just to reach the compound in Kursk, the planes likely released the missiles at maximum distance all the way over the Dnieper river, safely out of Russian AD range:

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If they could strike farther, they likely would have to “shame” Putin. But that would have required the carrying planes to fly near the Russian border, in order to get 300km+ range deep into Russia on the missiles. In fact, they played it extremely safe and just barely lobbed the missiles over the border to not expose themselves to return AD fire. There was at least one incidental, though unverified, report that appeared to confirm this, so it’s not pure conjecture. To wit:

Maryino. According to updated information, the historic estate of the Baryatinsky princes was hit by multiple Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG low-observable tactical missiles.

In order to avoid falling into the range of the R-37M air-to-air missiles placed on the SU-35S hardpoints, the low-altitude launch lines were moved by the Ukrainian Armed Forces command to the area of ​​the cities of Kremenchug and Cherkassy (more than 230-250 km from the contact line).

Let us remind you once again that in order to combat targets such as Storm Shadow, A-50Us with Su-35S links must be on combat duty in the air, and S-400 systems must be deployed on the ground, with 92N6 illumination/guidance radars located on 40V6MD towers. The enemy will continue to carry out launches primarily from rear areas.

Senior Russian officials, and I am inclined to think especially North Koreans, have been the likely targets.

On October 11, 2024, the Ukrainians already struck this place, and the shock wave damaged the administrative building.


Part 1 Wrap Up
Now getting back to today’s events to wrap up. A Ukrainian Rada deputy claims new information that Russia will soon strike the Verkhovna Rada itself:

Rada Deputy Batenko: The information that has just come to us is that there is a threat of a missile attack on Grushevsky, 5 in the coming days. This is the Ukrainian parliament. I see that Putin has raised the stakes as much as possible.

(Video at link)

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If true, it could mean Russia is not yet done with its retaliation, though it’s just as likely it’s more psyop pandering.

Perhaps the most shocking revelation from this entire incident is just how rudderlessly the United States is sleepwalking into potential nuclear war, led by a demented ‘Commander-in-Chief’ who’s clearly not making any of the precipitative decisions.

Just watch the nearly surreal scene, of the hollow-masked mummy nod off and smirk at the question of nuclear war: (Video at link)

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The fact that mere bureaucratic henchmen like Jake Sullivan, Blinken, and co. are likely the ones behind such momentous decisions is a scary thought: the US in effect has no leader, and no real figure of accountability in general, at a time of deepest global polycrisis and the verge of nuclear war; in many ways, it is sickeningly treasonous. One can viscerally feel just how little regard, or outright hatred, these cretins have for the average citizen—only the interests of their globalist cabal bosses matter.

Matt Taibbi relays the contrastingly dire tone with which Russian media covered foregoing events:

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Yet the West wallows in denial, with Pentagon and White House spokesmen dismissing the attack, and half the media merely thumbing their nose at Putin’s “impotent rage”.

They pretend that Putin is escalation averse, with “red lines” allegedly dashed time and time again. In reality, astute observers note that Putin operates in quite the opposite manner:

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Victor Orban’s thematic speech at the Eurasia Forum in Budapest today puts a finishing touch to underscore developments:

Viktor Orban - declared the collapse of Western civilization:

After the collapse of communism, after the collapse of the USSR, the idea of the Western elite was that the world should be Westernized, should be created in their image and likeness. This is the idea of American exceptionalism, European arrogance and conceit, real or imaginary civilizational superiority, which has existed since the European Enlightenment.

All this contributed to the fact that after 1990 the task became not the restoration of Eurasia, not a global agenda, not a world agenda, but the Westernization of the world along the lines on which the previously successful Western world had been built.

We are here today because that era is over. The idea that the whole world should be organized along Western lines and that the people who would be chosen to do that would be willing to do it in exchange for economic, financial advantages has collapsed.

Asian states have become stronger and have proven their ability to rise, exist, and survive as independent economic and political powers. As a result, the center of the world economy has shifted to the East.

Moreover, the Eastern economies are growing four times faster than the Western ones. Western industry creates 40% of the world's added value, and Eastern industry - 50%. This is the new reality.

The Western world has not only failed in its idea and strategy of reorganizing the world, but is also suffocating in its own environment within the Western world. The issues that liberal, progressive, dominant thinking could not answer have been put on the agenda. This is migration, this is gender ideology, ethical contradictions regarding traditional values, or even the ongoing war. Thus, the West is becoming increasingly incapable of governing itself.

The five-hundred-year era of dominance of Western civilization is over, the century of Eurasia is coming, said Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, noting that it will not be easy for the West to realize that they are increasingly "not the most beautiful and smart."


(Paywall with free option)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/thu ... ies-putins

******

Putin Is Finally Climbing The Escalation Ladder

Andrew Korybko
Nov 22, 2024

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He wants to deter the even greater provocations that the West might now be plotting, such as destabilizing and then invading Belarus, with the intent of coercing him into freezing the existing LOC and then possibly accepting the deployment of Western/NATO peacekeepers there.

Putin surprised the world on Thursday when he addressed the nation to inform them that Russia had tested a new hypersonic medium-range missile earlier that morning in an attack against a famous Soviet-era industrial complex in the Ukrainian city of Dnepropetrovsk. He explained that this was a response to the US and UK recently allowing Ukraine to use their long-range missiles inside of Russia. Their decision resulted in the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine “assuming elements of a global nature” in his words.

As was explained here with regards to the “moment of truth” that this latest phase of the conflict led to, he was faced with the choice of either escalating or continuing his policy of strategic patience, the first of which could foil attempts by Trump to reach a peace deal while the second could invite more aggression. Putin chose the former and did so in a creative way that few foresaw. The Oreshnik missile system whose existence he disclosed on Thursday has Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs).

It's essentially the same sort of weapon that Russia could use in the event of a nuclear conflict with the West since the aforesaid feature coupled with its hypersonic speed means that it’s impossible to intercept. In other words, Putin rattled Russia’s nuclear saber in the most convincing way possible short of testing a nuclear weapon, which his government previously confirmed that it wouldn’t do for the reasons that were explained here. He’s therefore finally climbing the escalation ladder.

Putin hitherto declined to escalate in response to the over 1,000 days’ worth of NATO-backed Ukrainian provocations that included bombing the Kremlin, early warning systems, strategic airfields, nuclear power plants, and the Crimean Bridge, among many other sensitive targets, so as to avoid World War III. He also prioritized political goals over military ones up until this point, but that’s all changing now since he realized that his strategic patience was interpreted as weakness and only invited more aggression.

Seeing as how Ukraine’s latest use of Western weapons inside of Russia’s pre-2014 territory isn’t unprecedented due to the HIMARS already having been used in Belgorod and Kursk Regions, the latter of which Ukraine invaded with NATO’s support over the summer, the question arises of why it took over three months for his views to change. It should also be noted that Russia didn’t significantly respond to Ukraine fielding the F-16s despite Lavrov previously warning that they could be nuclear-equipped.

Russia might have therefore received intelligence that the West is plotting an even greater provocation in the future. Belarusian media just aired a documentary exposing a Western plot to destabilize and invade their country, which readers can learn more about by reviewing the seven analyses that were listed in this one here. Correspondingly, it was assessed that “Russia’s Updated Nuke Doctrine Aims To Deter Unacceptable Provocations From NATO”, and the aforesaid would certainly constitute such.

Putin’s strategic patience would have finally reached its limits if he caught wind that anything of the sort was afoot, which would explain why he’d order the Oreshnik to be used against that Soviet-era industrial complex in Central Ukraine in order to send an unmistakable message to the West to reconsider its plans. Recalling how concerned he is about avoiding World War III, it also makes sense why his spokesman confirmed that Russia informed the US about this approximately half an hour ahead of time.

After all, launching an intermediate-range hypersonic missile westward without any advance notification could have prompted the US to panic by interpreting this as the start of a potential nuclear first strike by Russia, thus setting into motion the exact same scenario that he’s worked so hard to avoid. His motive was to deter the West from carrying out unacceptable provocations that cross Russia’s most sensitive redlines, which the West might be plotting out of desperation to “escalate to de-escalate” on its terms.

It was written here, here, and here that Trump might resort to that, but the latest ATACMS escalation – which can be regarded as a provocation due to these missiles having a much longer range than the HIMARS – suggests that the “Collective Biden” decided to do so first out of fear that whatever deal he might reach with Putin would compromise on too many of the US’ interests. Accordingly, Putin might now have decided to beat the US to the punch by “escalating to de-escalate” on Russia’s terms instead.

Thursday morning was the first time that a MIRV was used in combat, which is much more significant than the US “boiling the frog” by expanding the range of the missiles that Ukraine has already been able to use inside of Russia’s pre-2014 borders after once again signaling its escalatory plans long in advance, especially since few saw it coming and the US only had around a 30-minute notice. Putin also warned that Russia’s new doctrine allows it to use such weapons against those who arm Ukraine.

It's unlikely that he’ll throw caution to the wind by launching Oreshniks against military targets in NATO countries at the risk of sparking World War III, but it can’t be ruled out that the next escalation that he’s considering in response to more aggression could be bombing Moldova instead. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said earlier in the week that the Western-backed government there is “turning the country at a rapid pace into a logistics hub used to supply the Ukrainian armed forces.”

It's not a NATO member though so Russia could bomb it without crossing the West’s red lines while still signaling that he’s not the pushover that they convinced themselves that he was after misreading the reasons for his strategic patience if they still keep provoking him even after Thursday’s escalation. They want him to accept Western/NATO peacekeepers along the Line of Contact (LOC), Ukraine’s continued militarization, its future membership in NATO, and no change in its anti-Russian legislation.

By contrast, Putin wants to expel Ukraine from the four regions that voted to join Russia in September 2022, no Western/NATO peacekeepers along the LOC, Ukraine’s demilitarization, the restoration of its constitutional neutrality, and the rescinding of its anti-Russian legislation. Beating the West to the punch by “escalating to de-escalate”, or at least finally climbing the escalation ladder in response to their provocations, is therefore aimed at achieving as many of these maximum goals as he can.

If he sticks to his guns and doesn’t waver from his newfound approach, which is arguably long-overdue since some believe that he should have begun applying it after the failure of spring 2022’s peace talks, then he stands a much greater chance of achieving at least part of the most important ones. NATO can always conventionally intervene in Ukraine west of the Dnieper to salvage some of its geopolitical project so Russia should assume that it won’t be able to demilitarize or denazify that part of the country.

What it can do, however, is employ military and diplomatic means (both individually and in combination through its abovementioned newfound approach) to obtain control over all the territory that it claims as its own east of the Dnieper, possibly including Zaporozhye’s eponymous city of over 700,000 people. The new LOC could then be patrolled by purely non-Western forces deployed as part of a UN mandate while Ukraine might be coerced to demilitarize everything that remains under its control east of the Dnieper.

All heavy weapons would have to be withdrawn westward as part of a massive demilitarized zone (DMZ), while the possibility also exists that this “Transdnieper” region might also receive political autonomy or at least cultural autonomy to protect the rights of ethnic Russians and those who speak that language. This scenario was first tabled here in March and could take the form shown below, with the western part of the country in blue possibly hosting NATO troops as part of the arrangement that’ll then be described:

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Ukraine could be deterred from breaking the ceasefire due to the DMZ placing it at a disadvantage, while Russia would be deterred by the “security guarantees” that Ukraine clinched with a bunch of NATO countries this year, which amount to de facto Article 5 support. While Russia could storm into the DMZ, NATO could also storm into Western Ukraine or possibly even cross the Dnieper, whether due to a swift intervention or having already deployed its troops west of the river per tacit agreement with Russia.

What was detailed in the three preceding paragraphs is the maximum that Russia can realistically achieve given the new military-strategic circumstances in which it finds itself over 1,000 days since the special operation began. Putin finally started climbing the escalation ladder in order to deter the even greater provocations that the West might now be plotting with the intent of coercing him into freezing the existing LOC and then possibly accepting the deployment of Western/NATO peacekeepers there.

Such a scenario would be completely unacceptable for him from the perspective of Russia’s national security interests and his own reputational ones after promising to check NATO’s expansion in Ukraine. Keeping that bloc west of the Dnieper while demilitarizing everything east of it and north of the administrative borders of the four former Ukrainian regions that joined Russia in September 2022, tentatively known as the “Transdnieper” region, would be a tolerable compromise though.

Trump might deem this to be pragmatic enough of a deal for him to go along with since it could still be spun by all relevant parties to the conflict as a victory (e.g. Russia gained land and created a DMZ deep inside Ukraine; Ukraine continued to exist as a state; and the US de facto incorporated Western Ukraine into NATO). It could even enter into force prior to that if either side “escalates to de-escalate” before his inauguration and this is the “mutually face-saving” compromise that they reach to avoid World War III.

Of course, it would be better if they agree to this without sparking a Cuban-like brinksmanship crisis that risks spiraling out of control, hence why their diplomats should begin discussing it now or a third country’s ones like India’s should propose it behind the scenes to get the ball rolling. Putin’s newfound (and arguably long-overdue) approach signals that he won’t accept freezing the existing LOC, nor especially the deployment of NATO/Western peacekeepers there, and will escalate to avert that.

He might even go as far as using tactical nukes in Ukraine (and/or NATO’s logistics hub in Moldova) if he feels that he’s being cornered by the evolving circumstances in which the West might soon place him through its possibly forthcoming greater provocations (e.g. destabilizing and invading Belarus). The West must therefore start taking Putin seriously after he finally began climbing the escalation ladder otherwise the worst-case scenario of World War III might become unavoidable if they push him too far.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/putin-is ... escalation

The solutions above would not serve Russia well, Ukraine must be de-nazified and the Black Sea coast returned to Russia. Anything less just sets up the next round of hostilities.

******

A trap for those with armor from mobilization
November 23, 13:40

1. We announce a reservation from mobilization via the app.
2. We clearly demonstrate what happens to those who do not have a reservation.
3. Suckers run to register in the app, thinking that they have a reservation.
4. We cancel the reservation via the app.
5. We recruit new and already rewritten cannon fodder.

Profit

P.S. From February 28, 2025, reservations via the app are canceled in Ukraine. And personal data has already been collected.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9512876.html

Flight time
November 23, 13:06

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Flight time of the Oreshnik missile complex from the Kapustin Yar test site to the largest European capitals.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9512683.html

Old pictures in a new way
November 22, 23:18

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Old pictures in a new way.

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https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9512035.html

"Oreshnik" has been accepted into service
November 22, 20:54

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Putin reported at a meeting in the Kremlin that Russia has a stock of missiles for the Oreshnik system. Testing of this system will continue, including in combat conditions. Putin thanked all the creators of the system for the speed and efficiency of development. A
transparent hint that the tests of the Oreshnik in Dnepropetrovsk are not the last.

1. The issues of import substitution in production have been resolved.
2. The missile will be accepted into service by the Strategic Missile Forces.
3. A decision has been made to begin serial production.
4. The missile itself is new, not a modification of old systems.
5. A number of other medium- and short-range systems are still under development.
6. "Oreshnik" is a medium-range mobile ground-based complex.
7. Those involved in the creation of "Oreshnik" will receive state awards.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9511697.html

Google Translator

******

“After us, silence”: Russia’s “apocalyptic” troops officially engaged in the special military operation

Lucas Leiroz

November 23, 2024

For the first time, the Russian Federation has used its Strategic Missile Forces – and this is just the beginning of the escalation.

November 21, 2024, will go down in Russian military history as the date of the first real combat deployment of the legendary and feared Strategic Rocket Forces of the Russian Federation (RVSN).

Created in Soviet times, the RVSN is the independent branch of the Russian Armed Forces responsible for the arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles, literally the “troops of the apocalypse” – responsible for firepower capable of causing a global catastrophe. Of course, the RVSN was involved in all the major nuclear tensions of the Cold War, including the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Norwegian Incident. Although it has remained on high combat alert several times, no actual military engagement has occurred until now.

NATO, however, exceeded all expectations of escalation in its provocations against Russia and succeeded in turning the Ukrainian conflict into the most dangerous security crisis in history. After the Western-Ukrainian side ignored repeated Russian warnings to cease long-range strikes against the Federation’s undisputed territory, Moscow had no alternative but to call in its most feared troops and authorize an unprecedented operation.

The target chosen was a military equipment factory in Dnepropetrovsk. The weapon used was a new missile, previously untested in real situations – nicknamed ‘Oreshnik’. Luckily for the Ukrainians, no nuclear warhead was attached to the missile, which worked as a conventional weapon despite its surprising speed and high lethality.

There are two main points to be understood from the attack on Dnepropetrovsk: on the one hand, this was a test for Moscow, which had the opportunity for the first time to use the Oreshnik missile technology in a real combat situation, confirming its absolute effectiveness. On the other hand, the attack was a kind of “last chance” for the enemy, as well as a major warning to Ukraine.

Moscow could have responded to the Ukrainian strikes on Bryansk and Kursk with nuclear weapons, as such a decision would have been fully in line with recent reforms in the Russian Nuclear Doctrine. However, once again mercy and a desire for de-escalation prevailed in the Kremlin’s decisions, leading to a warning being delivered to both NATO and Ukraine before the “final solution”.

For NATO, the message was clear: there is no military technology available that can stop Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles. If the decision to go nuclear is taken, the targets will be hit without the Atlantic alliance and its proxies being able to do anything to prevent it.

For Ukraine, the warning was even deeper: Moscow made it clear that no one would “help” the neo-Nazi regime. Obviously, the Russian attack was noticed by the Americans in time. There are thousands of observers involved in various monitoring projects whose specific task is to see such maneuvers and prepare a response in time for the event of a nuclear crisis. In other words, Washington saw that the attack was happening and did nothing.

Perhaps the US held back from reacting out of fear. Perhaps it held back from reacting because it assumed the target would be Ukrainian. But in any case, there was no reaction. Washington did not issue an emergency plan for nuclear retaliation, even without any confirmation, until minutes after the targets were hit, that the Russian warheads contained nuclear material or not. In other words, the US, faced with dangerous uncertainty, chose to remain silent.

The American inaction was the best warning that could have been given to the Ukrainians. The Americans made it clear that they would do nothing to protect their proxy. If Russia launches nuclear weapons against Ukraine, Kiev will have to deal with the consequences alone. More than that, it must be emphasized that the Americans had no way of predicting whether the Russian strikes would target NATO or not, which is why the lack of an immediate retaliatory operation has an even deeper significance and calls into question even the “collective defense” of the Western alliance.

It would be great if the Ukrainians had learned their lesson and started de-escalating. However, hours after the incident, Kiev used long-range missiles again, this time hitting Krasnodar, in a new act of unprecedented escalation of violence. In other words, even though they know that they will fight alone and that they will suffer the consequences of a nuclear war without any foreign support, the Ukrainians continue to cross the red lines.

It is difficult to write about these topics in times of great tensions, because everything can change at any moment. By the time this analysis is published, Ukraine could face retaliation that would make everything I have said here obsolete. However, regardless of the Kremlin’s future decisions, November 21 will remain a milestone in Russian military history: now the intercontinental ballistic missiles are in the field and the RVSN is officially involved in the special military operation.

It might be interesting for Kiev’s decision-makers to remember the RVSN motto: “After us, silence.” The moment these forces are given permission to use their full potential, there will be no more sound in the enemy ranks. Either Kiev stops its deep attacks, or it will soon be too late.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... operation/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Nov 24, 2024 1:17 pm

The nuclear issue
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/24/2024

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“In his new book, ‘War,’ the famous Watergate reporter reports that the Russian president was seriously considering the possibility of using nuclear weapons to avoid major losses on the battlefield,” wrote Le Monde last October on the publication of Bob Woodward’s new book. “According to the book, American intelligence services pointed to a 50% chance that Putin would use tactical nuclear weapons if Ukrainian forces isolated 30,000 Russian soldiers in the southern city of Kherson. A few months earlier, in the far northeast of the country, Ukrainian troops had surprised the Russians by recapturing Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, and were preparing to liberate Kherson, strategically located on the Dnieper River, not far from the Black Sea,” the article added, clearly showing a profound lack of understanding of the conflict and its evolution.

Before the operation to recapture the territories on the right bank of the Dnieper, where the regional capital of Kherson is located, began, Ukraine did not recapture the city of Kharkiv, which it never lost control of, but rather Izium, Kupiansk or Balakleya, cities in the part of the Kharkiv region that had been under Russian control. Nor was Kherson's supposedly strategic position the most important factor in recapturing the city, but rather the difficulty of defending it with the river at its back and after the bridges connecting the two banks had been destroyed.

The possibility that Russia would use nuclear weapons has been a recurring issue since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and even Woodward’s attempt to present the information he received from his sources as news clashes with what the CNN journalist already published last March, when, to promote his book, he wrote that “the administration’s fear, a second senior administration official told me, ‘was not just hypothetical – it was also based on some information we collected. ’” Stoking fears of a possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia based on the possibilities of their use in the past does not seem to be the best argument. However, Woodward’s book is already the second attempt by the United States to insist that Russia was willing to use such weapons in the fall of 2022. In reality, the possibility that the Russian garrison would be isolated on the right bank of the Dnieper never existed, so the information that Sciutto and Woodward say they have is based only on a hypothetical scenario that Russia was going to avoid at all costs. Since the appointment of General Surovikin to command the special military operation , all preparations were aimed at what finally happened: Moscow was not going to fight for Kherson and would retreat without a fight in order to preserve its best troops and prepare the defense of the southern territories and focus on the Donbass front. However, the facts seem to have become legend and journalists, even the most reputable ones, still prefer to publish the legend.

Even before the United States, the United Kingdom and France lifted their ban on the use of Western long-range missiles on mainland Russia last week – something Ukraine had been pleading for for months and which prompted a swift Russian response with the launch of a medium-range ballistic missile – the nuclear issue had quickly returned to the agenda, and not least by the Russian Federation. As a warning, Russia has modified its doctrine to include among the cases in which nuclear weapons may be used a conventional attack by a non-nuclear power with the support or participation of a nuclear power. The formulation clearly defines a possible Ukrainian attack on Russia using Western missiles and it came at a time when the British and American media assumed that the announcement of the White House's permission for such bombings – at least with the use of British and French missiles, although perhaps not American ones – was imminent.

The lifting of the veto did not occur at that time, but the Russian mention of the scenarios in which the nuclear doctrine could be activated was enough for Zelensky and his team to consider it not a warning but a threat. From the United Nations, Zelensky had anticipated the Russian announcement and, in his speech, praised the Non-Proliferation Treaty and recalled that “Ukraine gave up what was the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world. At that time, the world decided that Russia should become the guardian of that power” to reproach its allies for not supporting the nuclear status of Ukraine, whose nuclear weapons and codes to use them were actually the property of the Soviet Union, so kyiv gave up nothing more than weapons that were not its own.

As in Russia in 2022, the nuclear issue comes up in crisis situations. Ukraine is now faced with uncertainty about what Donald Trump’s plans will be, how much the possible reduction in US funding will affect it and whether the EU will be able to compensate for it, and where the front will be at the time of the transition between administrations in January 2025. In mid-October, with the southern front in Donetsk seriously at risk of collapse and the growing certainty that Ukraine will not be able to achieve its maximalist goal of regaining all of its territory within its internationally recognised borders and being invited to NATO, the Ukrainian president again insisted on the nuclear issue. With complete frivolity, Zelensky stated that “either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons and it will be our protection or we will have some kind of alliance. Apart from NATO, we do not know of any effective alliance today.” That same week, the German tabloid Bild claimed that Ukrainian scientists were already working on building a nuclear bomb, information that was worrying enough – and would violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty – for the Kiev government to be forced to deny the news. Ukraine took the opportunity to say that “unlike Russia, Ukraine is fulfilling its obligations and expects other responsible international actors to do the same” and added that it was appealing “to the international community to join in the implementation of the Peace Formula, especially its first point, nuclear security.” Ukraine’s fulfillment of its obligations appears to include bombing – and then accusing Russia of – a nuclear power plant with artillery or drones.

Last week, The Times returned to the nuclear issue to ask “could Zelensky use nuclear weapons?” and to explain “Ukraine’s options.” The source for this article by Maxim Tucker, which claims that “Kiev could quickly develop a rudimentary weapon similar to the one used on Nagasaki in 1945 to stop Russia if the United States cuts off its military assistance as has been speculated.” “Creating a simple atomic bomb, like the one prepared by the United States under the Manhattan Program, would not be a difficult task 80 years later,” says the document prepared by the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies, an institution that advises the Office of the President and the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.

Tucker's article, which claims that Ukraine has the materials and technical capacity to produce the bomb, has caused a stir and has been understood as a warning of future nuclear proliferation. However, it is necessary to remember the current situation in kyiv and the way in which this self-serving leak has been produced. Zelensky and his team have started a tough race to ensure that the military and economic supplies that have so far sustained the State and the Armed Forces are not only maintained but increased, and they do so in a much more hostile environment in which the victory discourse is no longer particularly credible. This is not the first time that Ukraine has used Maxim Tucker to place a story about the production of new weapons in the media space. In 2015, Maxim Tucker published, also thanks to a leak, that the Donetsk People's Republic of Alexander Zakharchenko was working, together with Russia, to manufacture a dirty bomb to use against Ukraine.

As is likely to happen with the atomic bomb that the journalist claims Kiev could build, that dirty bomb did not materialize. The leak was simply intended to further demonize Ukraine's enemy in order to gain more support from its partners and allies. The current mention of the nuclear option is not intended solely as a threat against Russia, but primarily against its Western suppliers, to whom the Ukrainian government, using the media, wants to convey that it must continue to supply material and funding to continue the war. Otherwise, the threat of nuclear proliferation will continue to reappear on both sides of the front line and will be perceived by the Western media as a threat in the case of Russia and as a restoration of lost potential in the case of Ukraine. It is therefore not surprising that The New York Times is already publishing opinions of Biden administration officials who, in a personal capacity, are in favor of restoring Ukraine's lost nuclear status. The war seems to justify everything, apparently also the threat of nuclear proliferation.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/11/24/la-cuestion-nuclear/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of November 24, 2024) Main points:

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 440 servicemen in the area of ​​responsibility of the Western Group of Forces in one day;

— The North and Dnipro groups destroyed up to 80 Ukrainian servicemen in one day;

— The air defense system shot down 44 Ukrainian drones in one day;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 500 servicemen and two ammunition depots in one day in the area of ​​the South group;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 145 servicemen and an American armored personnel carrier in the area of ​​the East group.


▫️Units of the Vostok group of forces improved the situation along the forward edge, inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 47th Artillery Brigade , the 101st , 113th , 120th and 241st Territorial Defense Brigades in the areas of the settlements of Novy Komar, Razliv, Konstantinopol of the Donetsk People's Republic and Temirovka of the Zaporizhia region.

A counterattack by the assault group of the 123rd Territorial Defense Brigade was repelled.

The enemy's losses amounted to 145 servicemen, a US-made M113 armored personnel carrier, three vehicles, two US-made 155 mm M777 howitzers, a 152 mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery mount and two 122 mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mounts.

▫️Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on formations of the 60th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 103rd and 126th territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Mala Tokmachka, Kamenskoye in the Zaporizhia region, Veletenske, Ponyatovka in the Kherson region and the city of Kherson.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 30 servicemen and two vehicles.

▫️Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups inflicted damage on the infrastructure of military airfields, production workshops and storage sites for unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in the 141st district.

▫️ 44 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down by air defense systems .

▫️ In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 649 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 36,603 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,496 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,492 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles, 18,472 field artillery guns and mortars, 28,701 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

THE UKRAINE WAR AFTER THE PENNY HAS DROPPED – MAKE THAT THE ORESHNIK

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

President Vladimir Putin has announced that serial production of the new Oreshnik hypersonic, intermediate range, 36-warhead missile has commenced. He made this announcement at a special public meeting with Defense Ministry officials in the Kremlin on Friday, November 22.

“There are no means of countering such a missile; no means of intercepting it exist in the world today,” Putin said. “We need to launch its serial production. Let us assume that the decision on the serial production of this system has been made. As a matter of fact, it has already been essentially organised.”

This means there are already, or will shortly be deployed, dozens of Oreshniki missiles for firing at targets in the Ukraine west of the Dnieper River and as far west as the Polish and Hungarian borders.

This also means that no American, no NATO staff group, no Anglo-American target intelligence unit in bunkers in Kiev or Lvov are safe any longer. Nor are Vladimir Zelensky and his advisors. To escape Israeli-precedent decapitation, they must all decamp to the Ukrainian war operations mock-up already prepared on the Polish side of the border.

Ukrainian military intelligence head, Kirill Budanov, has claimed that the Oreshnik strike on the Yuzhmash (Pivdenmash) plant in Dniepropetrovsk is “just a cipher…We know for sure that as of October they were supposed to make two research samples, maybe they made a little bit more, but believe me, this is a research sample, but not yet serial production, thank God.”

“Wishful thinking,” a NATO military source comments. “He’ll get the chance to find out first- hand.”

Russian military sources add that, following disclosure of the Kremlin’s back-channel talks with Donald Trump and his advisors on terms for an end-of-war settlement, the Oreshnik is the signal that the “General Staff are talking directly to Trump & Co.” Putin was explicit in his first announcement of the Oreshnik firing: “We believe that the United States [President Trump] made a mistake by unilaterally destroying the INF Treaty in 2019 under a far-fetched pretext.”

Dmitry Rogozin — formerly Russian NATO ambassador, then deputy prime minister in charge of the Russian military industrial complex, now senator for Zaporozhye – carefully identified the credit for the Oreshnik: “Today, everyone who fought for the creation of this missile system, who overcame what we may call scepticism, should congratulate each other. And I join those congratulations. Good for you!…Thank you to the Supreme [Command, Верховному] for supporting the work! Thank you to the Academy for not backing away!”

A Russian source, who does not believe Putin ordered the General Staff to suspend its electric war campaign between August and this month, believes Russian strategy now is “a thousand cuts. The Oreshnik is a particularly deep one but I don’t believe that the Kremlin and General Staff have decided to use it to hit Bankova [street address in Kiev of the presidential offices and living quarters ]. The decapitation threat is real enough though to impel Zelensky to exit, or maybe for the Ukrainian military to get rid of him on their own initiative.”

“Just as important,” the source says, “the Russian ground offensive in the east will remain slow, patient, maybe for two years more. The priority is on preventing Russian casualties, conserving Russian lives. This is essential once you realize that the [Putin] presidential succession also depends, not only on winning the war on Russian terms, but ensuring the protection of Russian lives.”

Oreshnik in Russian means, literally, hazel nut or the wood of the hazelnut tree. In Siberia, the cognate expression “to give nuts” has the metaphorical meaning of inflicting punishment.

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Watch and listen to this video recording of the sequence of warhead strikes on November 21. In this second videoclip, the unique funnel of light is displayed six times as the warheads land on target.

As Putin pointed out in his national address on the evening after the Oreshnik strike, it had been then-President Trump’s “mistake” in 2019 to unilaterally withdraw from the 1987 Soviet-American treaty on intermediate range nuclear forces (INF). Oreshnik is both the Russian reply and also a warning to Trump to correct his mistake.

For the time being, the Financial Times, a Japanese propaganda outlet in London, reported a Norwegian graduate student as claiming “there certainly was no military value to it.”

In Moscow, Izvestia, on which the BBC has relied for republication, reported “it is likely that we are dealing with a new generation of Russian intermediate-range missiles [with a range of] 2,500-3,000km (1,550-1,860 miles) and potentially extending to 5,000km (3,100 miles), but not intercontinental. It is obviously equipped with a separating warhead with individual guidance units.”

This means the missile is MIRV, comprising multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles. Close observation of the strike videoclips shows six of these releasing six munitions capable of penetrating deep underground bunkers. A salvo of thirty-six warhead detonations, altogether.

Missile speed is reported to be between Mach 10 and Mach 11.

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The Militarist military blog of Moscow reports this image of the predecessor RSD-10 Pioneer missile “can give a definite idea of the appearance of the Oreshnik.”

Although satellite images of the plant after Thursday’s attack have not been declassified or published in the open, what is likely is that the bunker stocks of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles being prepared at the plant for launching against Russia were destroyed, along with the factory-floor and machine capacities of the plant to service HIMARS, other rocket and missile firing equipment delivered by the US and NATO states to the Zelensky regime.

Russian military sources have been discussing Ukrainian target options since the Putin Pause ended on November 17, and the electric war recommenced with the General Staff’s 120-missile, 90-drone raid against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure across the country. For more on the Putin Pause, click to read this and this.

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Source: https://johnhelmer.net/

The sources differ on whether the military initiative has now been delegated by Putin to the General Staff without the autumn restrictions, and whether the President has decided the Biden Administration’s escalation has Trump’s tacit endorsement in a calculated “escalate-to-deescalate” plan.

A Russian military source cautions against confusing Russia’s operational priorities now that Oreshnik has been unleashed, and the strategic priorities which haven’t changed. “Will the generals go for Zelensky and take out the whole illegitimate regime if another ATAMCS hits deep Russia? You bet. The Israelis have made it very easy for Putin. But I do not think the generals or the Security Council or all of the Duma care so much at the moment. Zelensky isn’t a priority because his own soldiers will do him in.”

“I also see there is no pause for Trump. No deference, no hidden messages, and no respite irrespective of what talks might or not be going on behind the scenes. This is a signal that the trust in Trump is near zero, and even less so for [Elon] Musk and the love fest the two of them have been displaying. There’s only one message Trump can give now to show his intention for an end of the war, and that’s to get Zelensky to announce elections by next March. That would signal the end of the neo-Nazi regime, and of course, the end of Zelensky too.”

The military sources also emphasize the warnings to the US, its European and Asian allies in the small print of the new nuclear doctrine signed by Putin on November 19.

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Source: https://rg.ru/documents/

Sputnik has published this “unofficial” translation into English.

The sources note that Paragraph 9 warns that nuclear deterrence is “directed against states that provide their controlled territory, airspace and/or maritime space and resources for the preparation and implementation of aggression against the Russian Federation.” Paragraph 11 then goes on to link nuclear with non-nuclear states in the NATO treaty, as well as the AUKUS and G7 blocs; in Asia these include Japan and Australia. “Aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state is considered as their joint attack.”

This is once again Putin’s cross-hairs warning to Poland and Romania for their US nuclear-capable Tomahawk missile bases at Redzikowo and Deveselu. The cross-hairs warning was first given by Putin in Greece in 2016. Now that the Greek government itself has agreed to secretly hosting US nuclear weapons at the Souda Bay base in Crete, the warning applies to Greece itself.

“Nuclear deterrence,” as Paragraph 12 of the Doctrine says, “is aimed at ensuring that a potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies.” Greece, Spain, and Germany are also now targeted according to Paragraph 15(e) because they allow “the deployment of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery on the territories of non-nuclear states”; and according to Paragraph 15(g) because of the “actions of a potential enemy aimed at isolating part of the territory of the Russian Federation, including blocking access to vital transport communications”. In Europe this expands Russia’s targets to the Baltic states around Kaliningrad, as well as to the North Sea states Sweden, Norway and Denmark which participated in the Nord Stream-2 sabotage and now threaten Russian maritime movement through the Danish Straits.

MAP OF EUROPEAN CAPITALS WITHIN RANGE OF ORESHNIK (KALININGRAD LAUNCH)
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Source: https://t.me/readovkanews/89690

With an estimated 1,500 kgs of combat payload, lifting to a maximum height of 12 km and moving at a speed of Mach 10, the Oreshnik launched from Kaliningrad would strike Warsaw in 1 minute 21 seconds; Berlin, 2 min 35 sec; Paris, 6 min 52 sec; London, 6 min 56 sec.

Of direct impact for Russian strategy on the Ukrainian battlefield, the Doctrine provisions mean that Odessa will, in the words of a Moscow source, “never again be allowed to be a base against Russia.”

The Oreshnik strike of November 21, the military sources in Moscow believe, demonstrates the military capacity to strike with either conventional or nuclear warheads at targets throughout Europe which none of the available US Patriot or other western air defence systems can defend against. It creates a conventional alternative to nuclear retaliation if, as Paragraph 19(d) of the Doctrine says, there is “aggression against the Russian Federation and/or the Republic of Belarus as members of the Union State with the use of conventional weapons, creating a critical threat to their sovereignty and/or territorial integrity” (emphasis added).

Before Oreshnik, the Russians point out, Washington was saying there was nothing new in Putin’s nuclear doctrine paper. “Observing no changes to Russia’s nuclear posture, we have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture or doctrine in response to Russia’s statements today,” Reuters reported the National Security Council as saying on November 19.

After Oreshnik, in presentations at a Washington think tank on November 21, Pentagon officials announced: “adjustments to the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review may be required to sustain the ability to achieve nuclear deterrence, in light of enhanced nuclear capabilities of China and Russia and possible lack of nuclear arms control agreements after February.”

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The President with the Defense Minister and other officials at the Kremlin on November 22.
Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/

Look carefully again at what Putin has announced for Oreshnik. By saying on November 21 “we also carried out tests of one of Russia’s latest medium-range missile systems,” he implied that the Yuzhmash strike may be a one-off. That depends, he added: “our decision on further deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles will depend on the actions of the United States and its satellites. We will determine the targets during further tests of our advanced missile systems based on the threats to the security of the Russian Federation.”

If the US adds to or refills the Kiev regime’s stocks of ATACMS; if the Starmer Government authorizes a new Storm Shadow firing across the border; likewise for President Emmanuel Macron for the SCALP missile, and for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for the supply of Taurus missiles, then Putin’s warning on November 22 of serial production of Oreshniki has confirmed “inevitable retaliation”.

“As I have already said, we will continue these tests, including in combat conditions, depending on the situation and the nature of the security threats posed to Russia. All the more so as we have a stockpile of such products, a reserve of such systems ready for use.”


https://johnhelmer.net/the-ukraine-war- ... more-90680

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Why These New Russian Missiles Are Real Game Changers

In response to a U.S. decision to arrange for ballistic missile attacks from Ukraine into Russia, the great magician and President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin pull a rabbit from his hat.

Yesterday the six independent war heads of a new intermediate range ballistic missile hit the Yuzhmash missile plant in Dnipro Ukraine.

Until now the new missile and its mission profile had been unknown. It is the clear counter to decade long efforts of the U.S. to gain supremacy, especially in Europe, over Russia.

Missiles can be classified by the range they are able to achieve:

1.Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) are designed to target enemy forces within a range of approximately 1,000 kilometers. Typically employed in tactical scenarios, they allow for rapid response to regional threats.

2.Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBM) extend the operational range to about 3,500 kilometers. These systems enhance a nation’s deterrent capabilities by allowing strikes on targets further away without resorting to intercontinental systems.

3.Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) represent the longest range category, with capabilities exceeding 5,500 kilometers. These missiles serve as a strategic deterrent, capable of delivering payloads across continents and significantly impacting global security dynamics.


The U.S., Russia and China have developed all three types of weapons. In the late 1980s, on the initiative of the Soviet leader Mikhail Grobaschev, the U.S. and the Soviet Union signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty):

The INF Treaty banned all of the two nations' nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers with ranges of 500–1,000 kilometers (310–620 mi) (short medium-range) and 1,000–5,500 km (620–3,420 mi) (intermediate-range). The treaty did not apply to air- or sea-launched missiles. By May 1991, the nations had eliminated 2,692 missiles, followed by 10 years of on-site verification inspections.

While the deployment of missiles of a certain range were prohibited missile development continued. Around 2008 the Russian Federation used the base design of the RS-24 (Yars) intercontinental missile to develop a more flexible version with a lighter payload. The result was the easier to handle RS-26 missile. While this could and did achieve the range needed to be classified as an intercontinental missile its payload was too small to be really effective.

In early 2018 the Russian Federation decided to halt all further development of the RS-26 and invested its money into the more promising hypersonic glide vehicle Avanguard.

A few month after Russia had taken the decision to mothball the RS-24 development the U.S. withdrew from the INF-treaty. While the U.S. claimed that certain cruise missile developments in Russia were in breach of the treaty the real reason for the withdrawal was elsewhere:

[T]he US need to counter a Chinese arms buildup in the Pacific, including within South China Sea, was another reason for their move to withdraw, because China was not a signatory to the treaty. US officials extending back to the presidency of Barack Obama have noted this.

However the U.S. withdrawal from the INF aligned with the 2002 withdrawal of the U.S. from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty which had limited missile defenses. Shortly thereafter the U.S. announced to build 'anti missile installations' in eastern Europe. These installation can be easily re-purposed to fire offensive cruise missiles towards Russia.

In July 2024 NATO announced that the U.S. would, starting in 2026, deploy nuclear capable intermediate range missiles in Germany.

This would recreated the dangerous situation Europe had seen before the INF treaty was put into place. A nuclear war within Europe, without the involvement of the continental U.S., will again become a possibility.

Russia had to finally react to the threat. A few weeks after the NATO announcement Vladimir Putin responded to those plans:

The US administration and the German government made a noteworthy statement concerning their plans to deploy US long-range precision missile systems in Germany in 2026.
The missiles could reach ranges of major Russian state and military facilities, administrative and industrial centres, and defence infrastructure. The flight time to targets on our territory of such missiles, which in the future may be equipped with nuclear warheads, would be about ten minutes.

The United States has already conducted exercises to practice deployment of Typhon missile systems from its territory to Denmark and the Philippines. This situation is reminiscent of the events of the Cold War related to the deployment of American medium-range Pershing missiles in Europe.

If the United States implements these plans, we will consider ourselves free from the previously assumed unilateral moratorium on the deployment of medium and shorter-range strike weapons, including increasing the capabilities of the coastal troops of our Navy.

Today, the development of such systems in Russia is nearing completion. We will take mirror measures to deploy them, taking into account the actions of the United States, its satellites in Europe and in other regions of the world.


Yesterday's attack on the Yuzhmash complex in Dnepropetrovsk (video) was the first demonstration of the new Russian capability.

The new missiles, named Oreshnik (hazel), is a RS-26 variant with a shorter range and a payload of six (instead of the previously four) multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV). Each reentry vehicle can carry six sub-munitions. The payload can be inert, destroying the target by the shear power of its kinetic energy, high-explosive or nuclear.

The missile uses solid fuel and is road mobile. It can be fired on short notice from camouflaged positions.

Launched from Russia the missile can reach any target in Europe in less than 20 minutes. On reentry into the atmosphere the warheads of the missile reach hypersonic speeds of 3-4 kilometer per second. There is no air defense system in the world that could stop them.

The surprising and successful demonstration of such an enormous capability is a wake-up call for European strategists.

Lulled in by neoconservative talk of western supremacy and presumed Russian inabilities the Europeans were eager to connect their fate to a proxy war against Russia. Having been defeated in the fight for the commodities of the Donbas region they have pushed for extending the reach of their weapons into Russia.

The results are now in. Europe is defenseless against new Russian weapons which can reach every political and industrial center of Europe with devastating power and with just minutes of notice.

Luckily there is still time to change course.

While announcing the new capabilities the Russian president also made an offer (video) to limit their deployment:

We are developing intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles in response to US plans to produce and deploy intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. We believe that the United States made a mistake by unilaterally destroying the INF Treaty in 2019 under a far-fetched pretext. Today, the United States is not only producing such equipment, but, as we can see, it has worked out ways to deploy its advanced missile systems to different regions of the world, including Europe, during training exercises for its troops. Moreover, in the course of these exercises, they are conducting training for using them.
As a reminder, Russia has voluntarily and unilaterally committed not to deploy intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles until US weapons of this kind appear in any region of the world.

To reiterate, we are conducting combat tests of the Oreshnik missile system in response to NATO’s aggressive actions against Russia. Our decision on further deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles will depend on the actions of the United States and its satellites.


Should the U.S. and its European lackeys commit further offenses against Russia, more severe Oreshnik 'tests', under field conditions and potentially aiming at targets beyond Ukraine, will be pursued:

We will determine the targets during further tests of our advanced missile systems based on the threats to the security of the Russian Federation. We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against military facilities of those countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities, and in case of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond decisively and in mirror-like manner. I recommend that the ruling elites of the countries that are hatching plans to use their military contingents against Russia seriously consider this.

Let's hope they will do so.

Posted by b on November 22, 2024 at 15:49 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/11/w ... .html#more

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US Providing Ukraine With Antipersonnel Mines Threatens Civilian Lives – Human Rights Watch
November 22, 2024

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The PMF-1 Lepestok (Petal) antipersonnel pressure-type landmine, found by service members of militia of Donetsk People's Republic, is seen on the road in the course of Russia's military operation in Ukraine, near the village of Izbytske, Kharkiv region, Ukraine. Photo: Viktor Antonyuk/Sputnik.

The US sending antipersonnel mines to Ukraine to use in its conflict with Russia risks civilian lives and violates the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty, the Human Rights Watch (HRW) non-governmental organization has said.

On Wednesday, two US officials told The Washington Post, that US President Joe Biden had approved sending antipersonnel mines to Ukraine. The move reportedly comes as the US administration tries to help Kiev contain the advancement of Russian forces. One official said that Ukrainian lawmakers vowed not to use the mines in heavily populated areas.

“President Biden’s decision to transfer antipersonnel landmines risks civilian lives and sets back international efforts to eradicate these indiscriminate weapons… The US should reverse this reprehensible decision, which only increases the risk of civilian suffering in the short and long term,” Mary Wareham, deputy crisis, conflict and arms director at the NGO was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

The move also violates “the most successful humanitarian disarmament treaty of the past 25 years,” HRW added in a statement.

“By accepting and using antipersonnel mines, Ukraine risks further violating the Mine Ban Treaty,” the statement read.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said it was hard to say if reports about Biden’s approval of supply of anti-personnel mines to Kiev are true, adding that such move from outgoing US administration is not ruled out.

Russia has repeatedly said that arms supplies to Ukraine hinder the conflict settlement and directly involve NATO countries in the conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has warned that any cargo containing weapons for Ukraine will be a legitimate target for Russia.The Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention was opened for signature in Ottawa in 1997. So far, 164 countries around the world have acceded to the convention. The United States, China, and Russia are among nations that are not parties to the treaty.

https://orinocotribune.com/us-providing ... hts-watch/

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Interpreting Interfax-Ukraine’s Report About Russia’s Alleged Plans To Trifurcate Ukraine

Andrew Korybko
Nov 23, 2024

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Ukraine’s Intelligence Community was either duped by an obvious fake that they fell for due to the panic and paranoia that’s taking hold of them after Trump’s historic electoral victory, or they simply made it up and laundered this false report through the media in order to elicit a reaction.

Interfax-Ukraine cited their country’s Intelligence Community last week to report that Russia allegedly plans to trifurcate their country by 2045 and is preparing to share its proposal with Trump. The first part would include the full incorporation of the four Ukrainian regions that joined Russia in September 2022; the second would stretch up to the former Polish and Romanian borders, host Russian troops, and be Russian-friendly; while the third would be “disputed” between Ukraine’s neighbors.

It's extremely unlikely that Trump would agree to such a scenario or that Russia will be able to impose it upon Ukraine against the US’ will. The reason is that it’s still struggling to obtain full control over a single Ukrainian region due to the military-strategic dynamics of the conflict after its improvised evolution into a “war of attrition” following the failure of spring 2022’s peace talks. There’s also no incentive for Trump to coerce Ukraine into a complete surrender that would move Russian troops closer to NATO’s borders.

On top of that, Russia would likely also struggle to quell the explosion of unconventional warfare that could likely follow its entrance into what Ukrainians consider to be the heartland of their ethnic nation, and it’s possible that this could turn into a quagmire that ultimately doesn’t justify the costs. After all, the initial phase of the special operation aimed to coerce Ukraine into agreeing to demilitarization and denazification, after which the national authorities would be tasked with implementing these policies.

Russia never planned to indefinitely deploy troops to the country for these purposes precisely because it feared the potential long-term consequences of its strength being sapped through the unconventional warfare campaign that might follow. Even in the event that Russia decided to take these risks and was able to militarily advance that far across the Dnieper, NATO could conventionally intervene to stop it at the river and freeze the new Line of Contact (LOC) after a Cuban-like brinksmanship crisis.

Another point is that none of Ukraine’s western neighbors have territorial claims to its peripheral regions that used to be part of their own countries before World War II. They’re now almost entirely populated by ethnic Ukrainians, who none of them want to become economically and politically responsible for either. Ethnic cleansing and genocide are off the table since they’re not going to risk the reputational consequences nor the possibility of an unconventional war breaking out as a result of these efforts.

Accordingly, Ukraine’s Intelligence Community was either duped by an obvious fake that they fell for due to the panic and paranoia that’s taking hold of them after Trump’s historic electoral victory, or they simply made it up and laundered this false report through the media in order to elicit a reaction. Regarding the second scenario, the purpose might have been to pressure Trump’s team into clarifying exactly what they have in mind, whether it’s “escalating to de-escalate” or a straight deal with Russia.

Whatever the truth behind Interfax-Ukraine’s report may be, there’s almost no chance that their country will be trifurcated, with the most likely scenario being that the conflict freezes somewhere along the LOC (with some adjustments) and a demilitarized zone (DMZ) is imposed. If there’s any trifurcation scenario that might unfold, it’s that Russia militarily coerces Ukraine and/or diplomatically convinces Trump into agreeing to a massive DMZ north of the LOC and east of the Dnieper, which was discussed here in March.

That would be a herculean feat for Russia to pull off, but it would represent the best possible compromise for all parties. Russia’s security would be ensured through the withdrawal of all heavy equipment east of the Dnieper while Ukraine would retain sovereignty within this massive DMZ. Ukraine would be deterred from breaking the ceasefire due to the DMZ while Russia would be deterred by the “security guarantees” that Ukraine clinched with a bunch of NATO countries throughout this year.

While Russia could storm into northeastern Ukraine’s DMZ in that event, NATO could also storm into western Ukraine and possibly even cross the Dnieper if it’s swift enough to impose a new LOC through the earlier mentioned Cuban-like brinksmanship scenario, which might be inevitable with time. No matter what, however, it’s extremely unlikely that a Russian-friendly Central Ukrainian State will form, which hosts Russian forces and abuts territories that are “disputed” with NATO’s eastern members.

That political fantasy might have been believable in the early months of the conflict, but no serious observer lent credence to it after Russia’s pullbacks from Kharkov and Kherson Regions at the end of 2022. As was already explained, even if Russia achieves a game-changing military breakthrough before Trump might have time to “escalate to de-escalate” like was written about here, here, and here, NATO could conventionally intervene to impose a new LOC under brinksmanship conditions if it has the will.

For these reasons, nobody should take Interfax-Ukraine’s report seriously. It’s either an obvious fake that they were duped into reporting on, perhaps as part of a psychological operation by Russia’s own Intelligence Community in order to make the global public think that there’s still a chance that it can achieve its maximum goals despite the current odds, or was laundered by Ukraine’s Intelligence Community in order to elicit a reaction. In any case, nothing will likely come of this political fantasy.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/interpre ... nes-report

NATO doesn't have enough first line active duty troops to intervene against significantly more and more importantly combat experienced Russian troops.

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Closing the gap after a nuclear strike
November 23, 22:11

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Closing the gap after a nuclear strike

If we are talking about a single nuclear strike of "tactical power", then we should understand that according to the old Soviet combat regulations, its goal was to defeat (not destroy, but defeat, and these are slightly different categories for assessing the damage inflicted on the enemy), for example, a tank company on the march. That is, 10 - 14 tanks. No more.
As an illustration, I suggest considering a diagram from a Soviet textbook on tactics (Voenizdat, 1988, ISBN 5 203 00810 8), which shows a maneuver of forces to close a gap in the defense of a motorized rifle battalion that was subjected to an enemy nuclear strike that affected the battle formations of ONE company. From this, draw conclusions about the real capabilities of a nuclear strike of "tactical power".

Will this change the situation at the front?
Answer this question yourself.

* The location of the nuclear strike on the attached diagram is a blue dot outlined in a blue circle.

(c) A. Sukonkin

https://t.me/A_S_Sukonkin/7275 - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9514017.html

Google Translator

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Oreshnik Missile: World ‘Very Close to Point of No Return’
Posted by Internationalist 360° on November 21, 2024
RT, Scott Ritter

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Russia’s newly unveiled Oreshnik missile has quickly become the focus of major international attention. Announced by President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, this medium-range hypersonic weapon is seen as a significant advancement in the country’s missile capabilities. One that could have far-reaching consequences for both the Ukraine conflict and broader international security. With its apparently unmatched speed and precision, and the prospect of mass production on the immediate horizon, this missile could be a game-changer for Moscow’s military operation.

Russia’s new Oreshnik missile is a “qualitative advancement” showing that Moscow is ready to “mirror” any Western escalation.


Russia’s strike on a Ukrainian defense industrial facility using a new hypersonic ballistic missile system has shown the West that a policy of further escalation will lead to devastating consequences, former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter has said.

America’s recklessness in dealing with Russia, as well as underestimating Moscow’s readiness to respond, has already brought the world dangerously close to an all-out nuclear war, the former US marine officer claimed on the ‘Judging Freedom’ YouTube show on Thursday.



Earlier in the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the country’s military successfully hit a Ukrainian target with a new intermediate-range ballistic missile called the Oreshnik. The strike was a response to Kiev using US-made ATACMS and HIMARS systems, as well as British-made Storm Shadow missiles in strikes on internationally-recognized Russian territory earlier this week, he added.

The missile launch is a clear signal to the West that Moscow was not bluffing when it said the US and its allies would not get away with aiding Kiev in striking Russia with Western-made weapons, Ritter argued.

“The missile that they used is a nuclear-capable system. It had a conventional warhead but could be used for nuclear purposes. Putin basically said that this missile can cover all of Europe and that in the future, he will mirror every action by Ukraine and the West; that any escalation will immediately be responded to,” Ritter told the host of Judging Freedom, Andrew Napolitano.

The former UN weapons inspector also called the development a “qualitative advancement” that brought a completely new type of weapon to the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. Everyone who believed that Russia was bluffing “has now been put on notice” that it is not, he added.

A continuation of the current Western policy towards the Ukraine conflict and Russia would be dangerous and irresponsible under such circumstances, Ritter believes. “We are very, very close to reaching the point of no return when it comes to a nuclear war,” he warned.

He particularly slammed remarks by US Strategic Command (STRATCOM) spokesman Rear Admiral Thomas Buchanan, who said on Thursday that Washington was ready to launch nuclear strikes but would only do so “on terms that are most acceptable to the US.”

So, that’s what you wanted?
Well, you’ve damn well got it!

A hypersonic ballistic missile attack pic.twitter.com/lsKQHhMnif

— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) November 21, 2024

Such statements sound as if the US is ready for a “pre-emptive strike” against Russia, Ritter said, adding that taking out Russia’s nuclear capabilities first was “the only way an exchange works that you can walk away from.” Such rhetoric is bound to put Moscow on edge, according to the former UN weapons inspector.

The “lame duck” administration of President Joe Biden might have made a U-turn on allowing Kiev to use Western long-range weapons for strikes on undisputed Russian territory to make life difficult for their successors, opined Ritter, a former RT contributor.

“They are ‘Trump proofing’ NATO, Ukraine and the deep state” in order to make the Ukraine conflict problem “so hard” that President-elect Donald Trump will not be able to resolve it as he intends, he said.

Trump has vowed to swiftly end the Ukraine conflict upon assuming office. One possibility would be to force Ukraine to drop its NATO ambitions and agree to freeze the conflict, according to reports. Moscow has ruled out the latter, insisting that all the goals of its military operation – including Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification – must be fulfilled.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/11/ ... no-return/

All this talk of 'Trump-proofing' is beside the point, Trump will not meet Russia's terms and Russia cannot trust the US, too many lies for too long.

******

Fragments of "The Hazelnut Tree"
November 24, 15:35

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Fragments of the "Oreshnik" found at the site of the strikes on the workshops of the Yuzhmash plant.
Satellite images of the strike area should appear today or tomorrow. Let's see what is visible from space.
The enemy is implementing a serious set of measures to conceal the consequences of the strikes.
Eyewitnesses from the scene say that the workshops were seriously damaged and underground floors were possibly hit.
Judging by the enemy's propaganda emphasis on the fact that Russia has few such missiles and not on the fact that the missile has "low efficiency", it hit hard.
Actually, the more of them our military-industrial complex can produce in the coming months, the better - this is not only an additional option for high-precision uncounterable strikes, but also a change in the strategic balance with the United States.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9514972.html

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Nov 25, 2024 1:31 pm

Trumpism, NATO and the Ukraine war
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/25/2024

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“Two years ago, General Mark A. Milley, then President Biden’s chief military adviser, suggested that neither Russia nor Ukraine could win the war. A negotiated solution, he argued, was the only path to peace. His comments caused a furor among senior officials. But President-elect Donald J. Trump’s victory is making General Milley’s prediction come true,” wrote The New York Times in an article published last week, part of a growing line of arguments by those who fear that the arrival of the new Republican administration will mean leaving Ukraine to its own devices. These articles, present in all major American and European media, take literally Trump’s desire to end the war and his lack of interest in the situation in Ukraine. This has also been helped by the words of JD Vance, who, from his ignorance of the conflict, has proposed a plan that can only satisfy Russia, or the exalted response of Donald Trump Jr. after the confirmation of the American permission to use Western missiles against targets on the territory of mainland Russia. Sometimes, think-tankers and experts also add Trump's disdain for NATO or his desire not to rescue member countries that do not meet the minimum investment required by the Alliance in the event of a Russian attack.

As now, those who wanted to oppose Donald Trump analyzed his rhetoric from the literal use of his words. The logic of this view was to argue that Trump wanted to dismantle NATO, even though it was clear that his goal was simply to get European countries to increase their defense spending far beyond what they wanted. In other words, the American president did not want Germany or other European countries to be invaded by Russian troops, but to foot the bill for NATO, by increasing military spending and breaking with the tacit post-World War II agreement that European countries could finance their welfare state by leaving the security issue in the hands of the United States. That is the real break that Trump made, not that of NATO.

During Trump's first term, the president and the entire movement surrounding him, Trumpism, were also repeatedly called isolationist. This is something that is once again insisted upon by appealing to campaign slogans, Make America Great Again or the current America First , taken from the main isolationist organization and which, with Charles Lindbergh as spokesman, fought, sometimes with pro-Nazi positions, against the participation of the United States in World War II. This position forgets Trump's interventionist policy in Latin America - with the recognition of the interim president of Venezuela Juan Guaidó - or in the Middle East, where the United States bombed Syria, Yemen and continued its presence in Iraq and its unconditional support for Israel. In reality, the only planned withdrawal, which was not executed, since it was Joe Biden who carried it out, was that of Afghanistan with the start of the Doha negotiations with Taliban representatives.

The manifest lack of interest in the war in Ukraine and the expressed desire not to initiate new military interventions have been enough to once again label Trump's approach as isolationism. These arguments ignore the positions shown by those who will lead Trump's team, with Marco Rubio and Michael Waltz at the head. Neocon , hawk against China and Iran, with nothing positive to say about Russia and with the desire to destroy every progressive government in Latin America, no one in their right mind should mistake Rubio for an isolationist. Nor is Waltz, who on the eve of the elections proposed draconian sanctions against Russia and "removing the handcuffs on the use of long-range missiles" in Ukraine, a man who seeks to distance the United States from the rest of the world.

In The Strategy of Denial , Elbridge Colby, one of Trump’s foreign policy entourage who was involved in drafting the 2018 National Defense Strategy, details the point of view from which Trumpism operates and which tends to be mistakenly confused with isolationism. The basic concept is the denial of hegemony, that is, the maintenance of American hegemony by preventing countries that oppose the United States from creating their own hegemonic blocs in key regions of the planet. Preventing countries such as China, Russia, Germany or Iran from creating alliances capable of politically, economically or militarily surpassing the United States is the way to avoid the need for a US military intervention. However, the idea assumes constant US involvement in key points: Asia-Pacific, Europe and the Middle East, with Latin America and Africa as not even secondary scenarios.

Colby's ideas, like those of the rest of Trumpism, are focused on China and on preventing a rise that would endanger American hegemony in Asia and, by extension, in the entire world. In this scenario, Europe is a secondary theatre in which the correlation of forces means that there already exists a bloc capable of preventing an opponent of the United States, primarily Russia, but also Germany, from forming a counter-hegemonic bloc. Colby is explicit in arguing that this bloc, NATO, is not only excessively large for needs, but has also extended to include allies that are difficult to defend and who, therefore, are a burden. It is there, and not in a non-existent desire to favour Russia, where the interests of Trumpism are parallel to those of Moscow, although their arguments are different. For Russia, NATO is not an obstacle to its hegemony in Europe, but a danger to its security, while for the United States, the need to maintain a presence in countries it considers redundant (the Baltic countries stand out in particular, and the admission of Ukraine is not even being considered) represents an economic burden that it would like to get rid of. However, as with the war in Ukraine, this should not be understood as a desire to isolate itself, but rather to force European countries to increase their contribution to reduce the economic cost for Washington. Even so, fear of the literal meaning of Trump's words, not of their real meaning, is already causing the US president-elect to obtain, even before taking office, what he has been seeking for some time: that European countries unite to increase the weight of their contributions to paying for a war in which the economic benefit of increased tension and sales of military equipment fundamentally favour Washington, the world's leading military power.

The war, which has been escalating ever since negotiations broke down in the spring of 2022, awaits Trump's arrival at its most uncertain moment. However, it is not Trump's arrival that has made Milley's prediction come true. His argument about how this war would end through negotiations and not with a complete military victory is not the omen of a visionary, the wish of a hopeful isolationist or an internationalist fearing the worst, but the analysis of reality. The first months showed that this war was not going to end with the blue and yellow flag over Sevastopol or the Russian tricolor over Kiev. In the absence of a complete victory, a military conflict can only end through negotiation. As a comprehensive article in Foreign Policy showed months ago , in 2022, reluctant to reintegrate Russia into international relations, they chose not to favor dialogue. With Ukraine willing to sacrifice itself for the common goal, the war took the path from which it has not deviated until now.

The change of attitude that Trump's victory has brought about among a part of the population, even in Ukraine and among the community of experts, is not a result of an adaptation to the fait accompli of the coming to power of someone who wants to abandon Kiev, but of the fact that the war cannot be won. Last week, an article published by the opinion section of The New York Times assumed that the negotiations would mean the loss of territories and the withdrawal from NATO for Ukraine, rewarding Putin's aggression and allowing a country that he called democratic to fall. "Mr. Trump should do the same," the article continued.

This realism on the part of one side, which is growing although not yet the majority on the media scene, contrasts with the recent moves by the Biden administration, which is focused on doing everything possible to defend Ukraine, even if that means raising the danger of the war expanding one step further or moving to levels where the Russian reaction already involves testing medium-range missiles, there is talk of long-range ballistic missiles with nuclear capacity and the Kremlin feels it is necessary to resort to nuclear risk reduction channels to warn the White House that it is not carrying out a nuclear attack.

Last week, one of the most important people in the Republican transition team, Robert Wilkie, in charge of defense policy, denied in a BBC podcast that Donald Trump's first term in office was isolationist. Exaggerating the danger to the United States and the effect of Washington's actions, Wilkie stressed that "when Russia got too close" to Ukraine, "Trump bankrupted its economy," and "when Iran got too close to Iraq," the United States "had Suleimani killed." Isolationist or not, the threat of intervention is always on the table in the White House. According to Wilkie, Trump will contact Putin "to tell him to stop" and Zelensky to "tell him that negotiations are needed." Meanwhile, Biden's team is working to provide Ukraine with as many military supplies as possible and the European Union is seeking to increase its assistance to allow Kiev to continue fighting until it reaches a position of strength, the only moment when the red line of diplomacy can be crossed. The Biden and Trump teams seem to agree on this, and they do not want to strengthen a country that they also see as a potential opponent. There is still a long way to go before any kind of negotiation begins, and there is no certainty that any success will be achieved. Until then, a period of uncertainty and potential chaos has already begun, in which the dangers go beyond the slow movement of the front.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/11/25/el-tr ... e-ucrania/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
on the progress of the special military operation (as of November 25, 2024) Main points:

Russian air defence assets shot down eight ballistic missiles in 24 hours

The Russian Armed Forces hit the infrastructure of military airfields and energy facilities that support the operation of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex;

— Over the past 24 hours, Russian air defence assets shot down six JDAM bombs and 45 aircraft-type UAVs

; — The Zapad group repelled five enemy counterattacks in 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 400 servicemen;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 440 servicemen in 24 hours in the area of ​​operations of the Center group of forces;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 300 servicemen in 24 hours in the area of ​​responsibility of the South group of forces;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 infantry units as a result of the actions of the Dnepr and Sever groups.

▫️Units of the "East" group of forces improved the situation along the forward edge, inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 113th , 120th , 241st territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Novy Komar, Konstantinopol of the Donetsk People's Republic and Temirovka of the Zaporizhia region. Two counterattacks of the assault groups of the 33rd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

were repelled . The enemy's losses amounted to 110 servicemen, an infantry fighting vehicle, two cars and a 152-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Akatsiya" .

▫️Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the formations of the 141st infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces , the 124th and 126th territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Novoandriivka in the Zaporizhia region, Ponyatovka in the Kherson region and the city of Kherson.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 40 servicemen, three vehicles and a 155-mm howitzer M777 made in the USA.

▫️ Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, energy facilities that support the operation of enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 138 districts.

▫️ Air defense systems shot down eight ballistic missiles, six US-made JDAM guided air bombs and 45 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

▫️In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 649 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 36,648 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,501 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,492 multiple launch rocket systems, 18,502 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 28,718 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Monday meth comedown

Drugs, clubs, hitlerites. Unique post-soviet drug-retailing techniques. Albania, Kosovo, and Zelensky's drug habits. "They can now tell by the smell whether it’s Colombian or Costa Rican"

Events in Ukraine
Nov 25, 2024

I was walking around Kiev on a Monday morning, 11 AM. In search of some kind of document. My head was pounding and I felt on the verge of vomiting. Day one out of five.

I knew every person behind me was getting ready to stab me. I could already feel the blade sliding in besides my spinal cord.

And then, as I crossed the road, I saw my killer - a young man with a military backpack adorned with various fascist runes and paramilitary insignia. I clenched up and got ready for my fate.

And that’s how it felt for the whole rest of the week. Meth might be good, but the come-down is in a different league. Nor did I find it therapeutic teaching grammar to screaming oligarch children.

Civilized values
I stopped partying after that. But it wasn’t just because of the comedowns. Sometimes you start thinking about the sort of time you’re spending on your days off. I’d had a party at my apartment the Friday before, with my local friends inviting everyone. Among them was the Afro-Ukrainian model who was kind enough to share his white powder with the host. Then right after, my friend started DJing - with a swastica on his laptop formed out of duct-tape.

Sometimes one can get in a bit too deep, and start appreciating everything around you as ‘an interesting phenomenon’. But there are better ways to spend a weekend.

I stopped talking with that crowd after that weekend. Partly because of the swastica, though it didn’t seem so serious at the time - they were an apolitical bunch who’d do anything for shock value - but more because I was tired of that lifestyle.

Now he’s in the Azov brigade, renowned for its ideological commitment to the values of ultra-nationalism, white supremacy and esoteric paganism. He posts film camera shots of himself with weapons and indie rock music.

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Now instead of the usual brands, he shows off his fashionable Right Sector apparel. How is that all possible, you ask?

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Do you remember the Vice documentaries of ‘Kyiv, the new Berlin’?

The 2014 revolution brought Kiev nightlife to a complete standstill. As protests turned into riots, and government security forces opened fire on protestors, the country fell into crisis. But out of the ashes of revolution has risen a new generation.



Indeed - la luta continua, the revolution never ended. 2014 Euromaidan was a revolution of western values - the right to go clubbing all night. Never mind you could do the same thing in Moscow or Minsk. But it’s about the atmosphere - isn’t the rave more exciting when it takes place on the background of catastrophic poverty and social breakdown?

The vice video even notes how its raving hero lost his job because of the post-2014 ‘financial crisis’ - a nice neutralization. As though the fact that post-euromaidan Ukraine exceeded Brazilian poverty levels had nothing to do with its ultra-liberal economic policies, like the removal of all price controls on food (see this article of mine on the topic)

The euromaidan events had a heady mixture of fascists, anarchists, and liberals. The same thing in the clubs. I remember one anarchist who ran a soup kitchen I went to occasionally - she decided not to call the initiative ‘food not bombs’. As she explained in an interview, that slogan wasn’t appropriate in Ukraine, given that she supported the ‘anti-terrorist operation’ in eastern Ukraine. Those people don’t like our clubs, they don’t like our values.

Of course, sometimes a bit of steam gets let off. To make it clear who’s in control. Just like the euro-optimist Trotskyists at euromaidan with their ‘red EU flag’ got playfully, viciously stomped on a few days in by the dominant fascists, sometimes the club gets a little less cosmopolitan. One old friend, himself from Donetsk, told me about a time around 2016. He was in the club with a friend of south Asian descent. The progressive Nizhneyurkovska precinct. Some men in big black boots fractured his friend’s skull.

That’s all to say that I wasn’t particularly surprised when my old drinking friend ended up in Azov. You might have an idea of Azov like the following, a bunch of loser freaks

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And that isn’t to say they don’t exist. But in my experience, Azovites are where the hipsters go. If you’re in Azov, you have good connections - like my old friend. He didn’t care much about politics, he was curious about my volumes Lenin. But he had good connections through his work in the creative industry. And that’s the real class character of the ultra-right in Ukraine - ‘creative class’ hipsters, coders with enough money to feel superior to the ‘subhuman masses’.

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Before the war, this guy was living the good live in California. Note the ‘orcteryx’

If you’re in Azov, you’ve made it. You’ll get the best weapons and the best training. It isn’t where the proles go. They get shoved into some newly-formed unit that gets ‘used up’ within a few weeks at the front. The people in Azov own trendy male hairdressers in the capital, they do expensive edgy tattoos for fellow clubbers.

Hidden staches
A friend knew another Azovite. This was before the war. He was out of Azov by that point, working at a call center (another rightwing-organized crime nexus). He told stories of how he used to do DMT with his trench-brothers in Donbass on nights off.

Drugs are everywhere in Ukraine. Sprayed everywhere across the walls at the university I worked was graffiti announcing ‘meth and LSD' and the appropriate telegram code.

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In Ukraine and Russia, drugs aren’t sold the way it is elsewhere. Over there, you don’t meet someone who sells you the drugs. You do it through zakladchiki - ‘hiders’. They operate at the most exposed level of the drug retail network, and are the most likely to be arrested and given long prison sentences. Supplied with drugs by higher-ups, they hide it somewhere in the city. Beneath a bin, in a garden, in a playground pole.

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‘stache in this area’. The telegram phone number follows. ‘klad’ means ‘zakladka’, stache.

Then the drug consumer opens an anonymous telegram channel and pays for the coordinates using cryptocurrency. Now it’s on the consumer to find the drugs. Hence, you’ll often see some dazed drug addicts searching through the dirt in a playground or park for hidden treasure.

There was plenty of other graffiti. The METH AND WEED qr codes had to make space amidst the usual jumble of recently-sprouted esoteric fascist organizations. One I remember particularly vividly was Avangard, which enjoys playing with Italian nazi-maoist aesthetics.

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‘Reactionary nihilism in action. Avant-gardism as a way of life’

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Avant-garde is not simply an online phenomenon. Though they only emerged around 2021, they’re already a group with transnational ties in Kosovo and Albania - another important node in NATO’s global drug circuit.

[img[https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1 ... 80x919.png[/img]
A 2021 post. Here is the caption: There aren't many young European nations left where the active impulse still burns — among them are the Albanians 🇦🇱🔥. We, by the way, also claim to have a passionary spirit. And overall, we advocate for a pragmatic approach to pan-Europeanism, so we decided to visit, with a diplomatic purpose, the ancient Roman province of Illyria, now known as Albania... The land of castles, fascist architecture, and the warlike pagan Shqiptars from the Albanian Third Position movement ⚔️.
I remember how towards the end of 2021, particularly virulent graffiti and posters started going up around Kyiv. Here are some I photographed

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Thjs is actually an ad for a punk live show. You can listen to their songs on telegram too. Their songs praise interior minister Arsen Avakov, the Armenian oligarch who bankrolled the far-right movement until current intelligence chief Budanov took over in 2022..

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The war on drugs
Roman Gubriienko, a great young leftwing economic journalist who can no longer write for the papers because of censorship, often joked that Ukraine is ‘not a banana republic, but a corn republic’.

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Just as Ukraine has its own CIA-funded fascist paramilitaries, it also has its own absurd ‘war on drugs’ - where the anti-drug warriors are also the benefactors.

One time, around 2016, I got mugged outside one of Kiev’s most well-known clubs, Closer. It wasn’t too dramatic - two men introduced themselves as police and strongly urged me to enter a dark, abandoned alleyway with them so that I could ‘show them my ID’. I politely refused. They were sure ‘I had drugs on me’ and tried to drag me in. I let go of my wallet, which had nothing inside anyway, and ran away.

Fast forward to 2021, and I was in the same area having a picnic. This is the Podil neighborhood, a Jewish area renowned for criminality in the Russian empire and nowadays one of the capital’s hipster hotspots. I remember seeing a man wearing a FREIKORPS shirt here in 2015 and wondering what on earth was going on in the country. Anyway, I was having my picnic, and all of a sudden the following took place (my video): (Video at link.)

Here’s my commentary on it at the time, as published on my telegram channel:

The past 3 weeks, fascist groups clustered around the telegram group Katarsis have been conducting publicized raids against clubs frequented mainly by middle class inner city youth in the Kiev Podil area. These raids have been conducted in the name of a "crusade against drug trafficking", a popular theme among many fascist groups, particularly those associated with Evgen Karas' (formerly of C14, now in "Foundation of the Future"/Osnova Maibutnyogo, famed for his group's publicized murdering of Roma children).

The raids themselves, which have featured primary school age children, essentially consist of visiting the clubs, ridiculing the clubgoers on camera, throwing some firecrackers about (no fascist event lacks this element), breaking some windows, graffiting "white power" and homophobic slogans, and chanting "glory to ukraine death to the enemies" and so on. I was lucky enough to accidentally witness such an extravaganza last weekend, a video of which is attached. Note the lack of response by police, who nevertheless arrived exactly as the fascists did.

Like any self proclaimed "war against drugs", it's clear that this is being waged in the interests of redistributing drug revenue. Here we can can essentially distinguish between the katarsis/C14 group, which is more closely linked to the Arsen Avakov-created police (many former C14 members now work in "municipal guard", a Kiev city council funded para police organization whose members are solely proud neonazis, and who mainly engage in beating up supposed gays on camera violently raiding clubs, and simply random violence against the homeless, alcoholics, drug addicts and Roma), and Podil clubs, themselves patronized by the arch-libertarian politician Sergei Leschenko.

In other words, this is a struggle between different groups of the Kievan petit-bourgeois - those who have made their business through being "veterans" and attaching themselves to various police and (state or Western funded) fascist NGOs, and those who prefer more attractive, liberal NGOs. A battle between the admirers of "White Evropa" and those of "Tolerant Europe".

The overlap between these groups is quite symptomatic of current political divides. In a telegram post responding to the raid, the owner of the Khviloviy club castigated the "self proclaimed nationalist rightwingers", implying of course that "true" nationalist rightwingers are worthy of respect, not criticism. Meanwhile, the Katarsis telegram today attacked a member of the NGO/liberal-oriented rightwing hooligan group "Gonor" for its support of Khviloviy against Katarsis. The post also called out Gonor member Sergiy Sternenko, whose battle - supported by the same crowd that goes to the clubs attacked by Katarsis - with the Avakovian police apparatus continues in full force.


See here my article on Karas and C14. See this one on Sternenko and his connections with important US figures in Ukraine. See this on Avakov.

Here’s how things looked inside the club. (Video at link.)

Centuria was also involved, an aggressively ultrafascist group which incubated at one of Ukraine’s largest NATO training bases. See Oleksiy Kuzmenko’s remarkable research on the topic here.

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It should be no surprise to any of my latin american readers that those who most aggressively wave the flag of the ‘war on drugs’ are often those who most profit from it. There were also plenty of rumors at the time that club magnates sent the likes of Centuria and Katarsis to ruin the vibe at rival clubs. I’ve also written here at length at the mafioso exploits of Ukraine’s most incorruptible natsiocrats.

Public users
But what of their opponents, the liberal ‘drug appeasers’ like Leshchenko? Here again I resort to an old telegram post of mine. (Video at link.)

A video leaked this week (November 2021) of the politician Serhiy Leschenko snorting drugs, promptly shared by Katarsis aligned far right groups. Leschenko's wife is a well known techno DJ who plays at major European clubs.



Leschenko himself is also the "effective capitalist manager" of the State railway company Ukrzaliznitsya. Receiving a monthly wage of over 12 thousand USD, while railway workers generally get from $200-400 a month, Leschenko is accused by many workers of running the company into the ground, with the lack of investments leading to increased fatal accidents and unemployment. Leschenko also famously was unable to say how wide Ukrainian railroads are.


I also have to boast (?) that I was at a club at the same time as Leshchenko. I didn’t see him, and it wasn’t that hard - he seems to be at every club, every night, so my yearly nightlife expedition was enough.

Anyway, fast-forward to the present, and Leshchenko is happily at work as one of Zelensky’s advisors. Which brings us to the final dose.

In December 2021, with all Ukraine’s oligarchs and political elites raging at the increasingly unpopular president Zelensky, Andriy Bohdan gave a scandalous interview. Once the personal lawyer of top oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, Bohdan was head of Zelensky’s presidential administration from May 2019 to February 2020.

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Bohdan left, Zelensky right, 2020

In his December interview, Bohdan had much to say about his old boss.



The interviewer brought up Zelensky’s increasingly erratic behavior at press conferences. Bohdan answered:

When I was around, there were no problems. What's happening now requires research—these are medical indicators; it’s impossible to hide them.

When asked directly by the interviewer about rumours Zelensky was using drugs, Bohdan answered:

His face is different. If you take two photographs, it's a completely different person. It's a different conversation, different speech, words, different expressions. His thoughts are entirely different. He's completely different.

He underlined in particular Zelensky’s increasingly fact, chaotic speaking manner.

He lacks the energy of life. He's dissatisfied with what he's doing and doesn't understand what tomorrow will bring. (The president is confident), "Everything will be fine, I'm lucky.

Who replaced Bohdan? None other than Ukraine’s grey cardinal, Andriy Yermak - the man western and Ukrainian media is certain has Zelensky wrapped around his thumb, who enjoys Zelensky’s total emotional dependence.

And among Zelensky’s dealers is one of Yermak’s most infamous creatures - parliamentarian Mykola Tyschenko, a figure I dedicated a whole substack series to.

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According to Bohdan:

Tyshchenko’s brain's chemistry has been so influenced by substances far removed from the proud name "alcohol”. His brain represents immense value—tremendous value. I think we could use Kolya Tyshchenko to trade and pay off our sovereign debt because this person is simply a heritage-level specimen for all global science, a treasure of the global community. How can a person live with something like that inside them?

I think he will make a fantastic prime minister. I think Vladimir Aleksandrovich (Zelensky) will make an honourable decision. He really loves Vladimir Aleksandrovich. He loves him so much so much, he's ready to do his brows with his tongue.


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Bohdan describes Tyshchenko

In the same interview, he said that Zelensky has lists of hundreds of political figures he wants arrested. Comedown paranoia? I didn’t have the money for coke, but I can imagine how Zelensky might feel. And unlike him, I never actually had people out to knife me.

There’s lots of lore to Zelensky’s drug habits. While strana wrote mainly about Zelensky’s coke habits, the popular journalist Shariy recorded a video on how Zelensky is supposedly into methadrone. A much less bourgeois drug, it should be noted. Here’s some more material from strana’s 2021 deep dive into Zelensky’s hobbies:

For instance, Member of Parliament Geo Leros published on his YouTube channel statements from Zelensky's former business partner, Gennady Lazutin, who claimed that the president and his friends could even differentiate cocaine by its country of origin.

"They can now tell by the smell whether it’s Colombian or Costa Rican," Lazutin said.


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A note to the reader from Events in Ukraine - lest I be suspected of spreading Kremlin narratives, note that Leros is a pro-western, Ukrainian nationalist, euromaidanite politician. He criticized Zelensky on the grounds he was supposedly a Russian agent, or surrounded by Russian agents (like Lazutin).



According to "Strana" sources within the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the police began closely monitoring Zelensky's drug use during his election campaign. Several police departments were tasked with documenting evidence of drug use by the future president and his close associates.

"Staff from multiple departments—covert surveillance, narcotics control, and experienced officers from the former Organized Crime Unit (UBOP)—were involved in documenting drug use and supply to Zelensky. The operation was classified as top secret. Likely, this was intended to gather compromising material on Zelensky and his team. Results were obtained quickly—yes, the facts were confirmed. However, the investigation went no further. All case materials, including photos and video recordings, were sent up the chain and never turned into criminal cases or public revelations," a Ministry of Internal Affairs source told "Strana."

The results, according to the officer, did not surprise those involved in the operation.

One of the primary suspects was the president's close friend and MP from the "Servant of the People" party, Mykola Tyshchenko. The scandalous MP was well-known to UBOP officers from his activities in the late 1990s and early 2000s when he was part of the Savlokhi organized crime group and went by the nickname "Kolia Obolonsky."

According to "Strana" sources in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and criminal circles, Tyshchenko regularly supplies cocaine to Zelensky and his inner circle, which he receives from several dealers. One of the regular suppliers is listed in the Ministry of Internal Affairs' database under the alias "Andros."

"During surveillance operations, several purchases of cocaine by Tyshchenko were documented. Tyshchenko would buy relatively large batches of 100–150 grams, usually before meetings with Zelensky, on the eve of holidays, or during gatherings at the president's countryside residences. This was likely intended for Zelensky and his friends. According to intelligence, Tyshchenko insisted his dealers provide uncut cocaine. He purchased marijuana separately, preferring an elite Sativa strain. Tyshchenko himself does not use cocaine but might smoke marijuana for relaxation," explained a police officer.

When asked by "Strana" whether it was true that he regularly supplied Zelensky and his entourage with cocaine, Tyshchenko responded as though it were a joke or a holiday prank.

"Is this a joke? I don’t even want to talk about it," Tyshchenko said before hanging up.

Judging by the fact that the findings of the secret police operation were shelved, it seems the compromising material on Zelensky and his drug suppliers is being kept for use at a later date by whoever ordered the operation.


It all sounds like something you would do if you were a show business comedy icon handed the presidency of a country entering into history’s most mediatized war.

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https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... h-comedown

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Testimonies.

From people of Dnepropetrovsk. Yuzhmash is no more, it simply ceased to exist after the visit of Oreshnik. It used to be a colossal plant which had its own bus routes. There is nothing left there, only dust. People are in shock. Apartment blocks in the vicinity of what used to be Yuzhmash are cracked. Here where it was, it was designed to continue to operate even in the nuclear war and nukes going off nearby.

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SBU classified any information about the event. The whole city was feeling the event as a strong earthquake. People point out that Yuzhmash was attacked before--Kalibrs would fly in, destroy parts or whole shops and start fires here and there on the territory of the plant. Now it is just gone, including underground facilities ... This is a signal, indeed--Russia doesn't need nukes to wipe out anything. Medvedev didn't bluff when stated that Russia may unleash the weapon of a power world hasn't seen before. Here it is. (Video at link)

Now, French, obviously, need to be taught where their place in pecking order is--it is that of an abandoned chihuahua on the "death row" in the pound before being put to sleep. I am sure there are plenty of French targets which need to be recipients of latest Russian "technologies". There is nothing left to save in France anyway.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/11 ... onies.html

Ah Yes, Sure.

TSIPSO and butt-hurt fanboys from the West are already in full arms on all forums declaring that they have seen satellite photos of Yuzhmash and that... ranging from "we saw 6 charred entrances" to "nothing was really damaged". Totally expected. For those, just in case, who still didn't get the message--MAIN activity of Yuzhmash was UNDERGROUND, as it would be in Soviet times if, God forbids, USSR and the US would go to war. Those underground facilities are gone, together with production and research facilities for NATO-404 joint missile programs. They are gone together with the shift and those NATO military and civilians present there. That is why SBU immediately classified the whole thing (showing some decrepit hut with broken roof as "real evidence") and some "debris" of allegedly Oreshnik. Here is one such "evidence" published by VSU.

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If to believe that what you see is actually from Yuzhmash site (a dubious assumption to start with), then this is NOT any debris from Oreshnik but highly likely of remnants of the missiles (such as fuel tank) NATO and 404 have been developing at Yuzhmash. And after that real physics kicks in which would preclude survival of any "debris" from Oreshnik's MIRVs which would simply evaporate together with the multi-storey underground guts of Yuzhmash releasing an insane amount of energy which destroyed all NATO's hopes.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/11 ... -sure.html

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The Report About Russia’s Alleged Recruitment Of Houthi Mercenaries Is Misleading

Andrew Korybko
Nov 25, 2024
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It’s dishonest to conflate alleged victims of human trafficking rings with the Russian state’s recruitment of foreign fighters.

The Financial Times (FT) published a report over the weekend about how “Russia recruits Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine”, but the headline is very misleading. Upon reading the article, it’s discovered that what might actually be happening is that a shady company owned by a top Houthi official is allegedly duping some of the group’s most desperate members into playing these roles. They’re also apparently aided by what appear to be corrupt elements inside of Russia who facilitate this.

This isn’t the first time that a group of foreigners were supposedly victims of human trafficking rings operating within their country and Russia. Cubans, Nepalis, and Indians were all caught up in these plots in the past according to reports at the time that were analyzed in each of the three preceding hyperlinked articles. Such arrangements aren’t sanctioned by the Russian state due to the coercive and involuntary nature that characterize many of these “recruitments”, which are against its interests.

Regrettably, however, these rings continue to operate as suggested by the latest report that they’re now targeting desperate Yemenis from the Houthi-controlled part of the country. This isn’t equivalent to the state’s recruitment of foreign fighters though it’s dishonestly conflated as such by the FT in order to lend false credence to prior unsubstantiated reports about secret Russian-Houthi military ties. Readers can learn more about them here, which also enumerates five associated analyses from January to August.

The point being made by bringing this all up is that Russia doesn’t have some secret deal with the Houthis to recruit fighters against Ukraine. Corrupt elements within both are responsible for the reportedly coercive and involuntary nature of these alleged “recruitments”, the details of which could actually harm their bilateral ties if there’s any truth to them instead of serving as supposed proof of their strength. After all, Houthis are being duped into fighting against their will, if the report is to be believed.

Regardless of its veracity, whether in whole or in part, Russia would do well to conduct a comprehensive investigation in response to this latest scandal which follows related Cuban, Nepali, and Indian ones over the past year. It’s not always the case that “where there’s smoke, there’s fire”, but it’s still better to be safe than sorry and risk the possibility that corrupt elements continue operating to the detriment of Russia’s international reputation, especially in the eyes of friendly countries and groups like the Houthis.

There’s also of course the possibility that no foul play took place and that what might have instead happened is that desperate Yemenis who volunteered to join the Russian Armed Forces were simply spooked by what they experienced and now want to pretend like they were duped in order to save face. That’s not to suggest that Yemenis are cowards, not at all, but just that such an explanation can’t be discounted at this time pending the conclusion of the comprehensive investigation that was proposed.

Considering the frequency of such reports, more might be forthcoming, which could also once again involve other friendly countries and groups. They’re either fake news, due to some corrupt elements operating on both sides, and/or just face-saving excuses for cowardly foreign volunteers. Whatever the truth may be, nobody should assume that the Russian state is involved in such scandals since it has no interest in coercing or duping anyone into involuntarily fighting in its support against Ukraine.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-repo ... as-alleged
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Nov 26, 2024 12:38 pm

The time of rush
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/26/2024

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Biden was elected to a four-year term, not three years and ten months, the White House defended itself last week against accusations that its latest actions - the lifting of the veto on the use of Western missiles on the territory of the Russian Federation according to its internationally recognized borders, that is, not only in Crimea and Donbass, but also in Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod, etc. - were irresponsible given that there is already a new president-elect whose team has shown annoyance. The fear of what might happen once the transfer of power takes place on January 20 has accelerated the timeline, forcing decisions that had been postponed for months and compromising the policy of the next president. In reality, it is not so much the measure that bothers Trump's team, but having lost it as a threat. On November 4, in an appearance on NPR , the public radio station that Trumpism is threatening to stop funding, Trump's future National Security Advisor mentioned “removing the handcuffs on the use of long-range weapons” as one of the trump cards to force a negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, a tool that Trump has already lost after having been conceded by Joe Biden.

So far, there have been at least four episodes in which Ukraine has used Western missiles on Russian territory, mainly in Kursk, but also in Bryansk. After the initial two with ATACMS and Storm Shadow in Bryansk and Kursk, there were two more attacks last weekend, the last one on the night of Sunday into Monday. The censorship of war makes it practically impossible to know the extent of the damage, although the effect of this type of bombing should not be measured in the number of buildings destroyed and losses caused but in the ability to continue fighting. Despite the spectacular nature of the attacks, the videos of the explosions or even the satellite images comparing before and after, the efficiency of air strikes must be measured in their influence in producing changes in the situation at the front. The reality is that to achieve the effect that Ukraine and the White House want, possibly not only the current one but also the one that comes to power next year, kyiv would need a quantity of missiles that it lacks.

All parties, not only Russia and Ukraine, but also the countries of the European Union, which do not want to lose control, are working to position themselves in the best possible conditions for the change in the White House. Brussels is pushing to increase military spending in its countries, to make NATO “Trump-proof” and to pressure Germany to send the much-desired Taurus to Ukraine. Despite Scholz’s reaffirmation, the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, insisted again on the need for kyiv to have these German missiles, which have a longer range than the ATACMS and Storm Shadow, and has placed her hopes on the German elections.

The approach of Russia and Ukraine to reach January in a position of strength is completely opposite. Ukraine has understood that it is currently unable to overwhelm Russian troops on the front line, so trying to recover as much territory as possible is not feasible. That was the idea behind the failed Zaporozhye counteroffensive, with which kyiv intended to challenge control of Crimea by advancing on Melitopol and the land entrances to the peninsula. Faced with a much weaker Russia than now, that plan was a resounding failure that forced Bankova to rethink her entire tactics.

“Ukraine’s problems, meanwhile, are compounded mainly by manpower issues. The army has long been short of willing recruits, and its mobilisation drive is falling short, recruiting barely two-thirds of its target. A senior Ukrainian official says he is worried the situation will be unrecoverable by spring. An even bigger problem is the quality of new recruits. “Forest,” a battalion commander in the 65th Brigade, says the men sent from army headquarters are mostly too old or unmotivated to be useful. Except for a few, all are over 45: “I get men over 50 with medical certificates saying they are too ill to serve,” he says. “ Ukraine simply does not have the resources to base its tactics on ground warfare.

The prayers for missiles with which to strike in depth indicate exactly the approach with which kyiv wants to force Moscow to negotiate from an inferior position: not by besieging its troops in Kherson, as it aspired to do in September 2022, or by expelling them from Kharkiv, but by undermining logistics in the rear and causing so much damage to industry and military assets that continuing to fight is not a feasible option.

Following the first attack last week, the media estimated that around 50 ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles were available to Ukraine, even fewer (40 committed, ten delivered) in the case of the French Scalp missiles, which Macron has also given permission to be used in Russia. To these limited figures must be added the number of targets in the strip of Russian territory that the missiles can reach, the difficulties of delivery, cost and production. Judging from what American and British media have published, the numbers that Washington and London could export are limited, since their arsenals cannot be left uncovered. Russia produces as much weapons and ammunition in three months as the European Union does in a year, lamented Boris Pistorius, Germany's defence minister. Everything indicates that raising the stakes in terms of the use of more powerful weapons will have a fundamental effect on increasing the economic cost of the war for Russia, which has already moved its aviation out of the range in which its bases would be within sight of the American ATACMS.

To this uncertain bet, Ukraine adds the Kursk card, its best asset when it comes to presenting itself at the negotiating table, if Moscow agrees to start political dialogue before recovering all its territory. It is in this Russian region where the preparations of the two countries for Trump's arrival find a common ground. As the media has repeated so many times in recent weeks, Russia is preparing a counteroffensive with a significant number of troops (45,000-50,000) to recover as much territory as possible before the change of guard in the White House. Aware that it can be used as a bargaining chip to recover some of its lost territories, kyiv will fight to the end to maintain as much presence as possible in the Kursk region. What's more, the granting of permission to attack Russian territory responds in part to an attempt to support Ukraine in the defense of its positions in Russia. Unlike in Donbass, where Russia is advancing not only because of its strength and improved tactics, but also because of Ukraine's weakness, in Kursk there are no logistical problems, no problems with troop relief or lack of personnel.

The transfer of some of the most combat-capable units to Kusk has left parts of the eastern and southern fronts ripe for Russia to launch its attempt to capture as much of the four Ukrainian regions it has recognized as its own (Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, and Luhansk) as possible, especially Donetsk, where the most active fighting is currently taking place, and Zaporozhye, a front that had been virtually at a standstill since the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive. The clearest example of the change is no longer the capture of Ugledar and the rapid Russian advance toward Kurakhov, but the situation around Velikaya Novosyolka, an important town in the defense of the southern front, toward which Russian troops are advancing in two directions, threatening to cut off two of the three supply routes as the defenses appear to collapse. Russian sources admit that “the breakthrough into the city was possible due to the small number of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel in the redoubts defending Velyka Novosyolka,” wrote the Ukrainian newspaper Strana yesterday . Holding territory on the most important front of this war is simply no longer a priority for Ukraine, which has placed its hopes on its long-distance destruction capacity (not only with Western missiles, but mainly with drones, capable of threatening military bases anywhere in Russia).

Last week, in an interview with Donald Trump’s favorite outlet, Fox News , the Ukrainian president said, for example, that Crimea is not worth fighting for, a territory for which Ukraine should not sacrifice the number of soldiers that such a battle would entail. The media has presented this statement as a change, an openness by Zelensky to give up, at least temporarily, some of the lost territories. Nothing could be further from the truth, what the Ukrainian leader adds is that there is an option to recover those regions now under Russian control through diplomatic means. Given that Crimea is the clearest case and that there is no possible diplomatic way through which Russia will give up the territory, everything indicates that Zelensky remains with his mind fixed on the idea of ​​causing enough destruction to Russian logistics to make it impossible to continue the war. Although this peace by force is as naive as hoping that the miracle weapons of the West, the Leopards at that time, would drive away the Russian troops, who had been preparing the defence of that front for months and were aware that survival in this war was at stake in that battle, Ukraine has neither the time nor the resources to make its president's wish to magically achieve all his objectives achievable.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/11/26/el-ti ... as-prisas/

Google Translator

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Wonder-Weapon Mania Dies Down Revealing Ukraine's Wire-Frame Reality

Simplicius
Nov 24, 2024

The dual hype surrounding both the Oreshnik ‘secret weapon’ and Ukraine’s ATACMS/Storm Shadow strikes on Russian territory has died down, to reveal the continuing pattern of Russian troop advancement on every front.

A new graph has highlighted the accelerating territorial captures in square kilometers of the Russian forces this year from April to November:

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From Lost Armour—note the dip in August represents losing Kursk territory:

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The mood has turned absolutely dour in the shill media which had been doing its desperate best for months to prop up Ukraine’s hopeless cause:

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The conversation has entirely turned toward how to wrap the war up, with many ‘insiders’ in the West now claiming all internal debate revolves around how to convince Zelensky to give concessions, while still retaining some form of ‘dignity’ for Ukraine—which is just another way of saying, how to save face, and present the loss as at least a partial ‘victory’.

This has naturally led to Trump’s admin picks being a particular focal point as bellwethers of what we can expect from Trump’s approach toward ‘settling’ the war. Unfortunately, some of the recent signals are getting worse in this regard, and seem to indicate escalation as the plan.

For instance, Robert Wilkie, who has been appointed to lead Trump’s Pentagon transition team, spelled out exactly how he believes Trump’s team will approach dealing with Putin from day one. He admits he’s not speaking officially for Trump on this, but given that he’s literally leading the Pentagon transition team, it would seem his words carry some weight on this count. Notably, he says that if Russia remains defiant, Trump will majorly increase aid to Ukraine, counter to the “isolationist” ideas about abandoning Ukraine to its druthers:

Trump's War Cabinet: Let's order Putin to stop. Otherwise, aid to Ukraine will get even bigger.

Donald Trump will increase aid to Ukraine if Russian Federation threatens the Americans with a crushing response. The US already has the experience of killing 300 Russian soldiers in Syria.

🔴Robert Wilkie, a member of the newly elected US president's team, who is preparing a roadmap for the Pentagon's actions over the next four years, said this in an interview with the BBC.
(Video at link.)

Another “top Trump ally” said the following:

A top Senate ally of President-elect Donald Trump poured cold water over the idea of negotiating a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, saying the Kremlin couldn’t be trusted and would see any peace proposals as a sign of Western weakness.

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https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/2 ... l-00191366

Trump reportedly appointed other warhawks who are fanatically foaming at the mouth against Russia:

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In contrast, Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, just said that escalations from both sides must come to a “responsible end”—so perhaps not all is lost.

Either way, shrouded in our ‘fog of war’, the picks have provided some of our first glimpses into what a Trump approach could look like, and it’s not entirely rosy. I’ve written on several other indications before that Trump may attempt to ‘strongarm’ Putin by threatening a major redoubling of Ukrainian aid.

Granted, we can argue til the cows come home that these are just neocons impudently speaking out on Trump’s behalf, hoping to subversively influence the coming negotiations. But at a certain point, we have to realize these are Trump’s chosen picks; he’s in his second term already, and knows the ropes, which means we can’t continually make excuses for him, that perhaps it’s some ‘oversight’ or misstep. At some point we must admit that Trump has chosen the people he wants to represent him, and they may very well be representative of his approach, or could likely influence his approach in a major way, particularly given that these people are in positions whose sole job is to influence him on these very issues.

As they say, where there’s smoke there’s fire, and one crazy neocon like Mike Pompeo spouting off about Trump escalating could perhaps be dismissed, but a string of them saying the same things certainly has to be considered.

The truth is, it’s not threats of more “aid” that is the worry. The US is on the brink of bankruptcy and doesn’t have much of worth that can change the battlefield calculus left even to give to Ukraine. No, the real worry is that Trump will do something extremely gung ho and unexpected in order to brandish his ego and ‘restore the US’ image’ and morale. He’s known for making quick intemperate escalatory decisions like launching missiles at Syria, or killing Soleimani. As such, if Trump’s ego is hurt by Russia’s rebuff, the real danger is his doing something totally erratic like sending US troops directly into some portion of Ukraine, US warships into the Black Sea in contravention of Montreaux, or some other oblique escalation—perhaps a major uptick in RQ-4 drones and ISR activity closer to Crimea, etc., as a ‘show of force’.

Trump can’t allow his legacy to be defined as the man who backed down from Putin. With his seemingly unlikely victory, after surviving multiple assassination attempts, Trump could view his ascendancy to power in some messianic light, and believe himself destined to force the world’s ‘strongmen’ to bend the knee to him as de facto global Sovereign, and the resurgent Greatness and Exceptionalism of the American Empire.

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Trump’s “peace through strength” mantra is the real biggest threat we face because Putin is the one leader Trump could misread, as Putin has no further room for backing down: the conflict’s resolution is an existential issue for Russia. It’s the unmovable object versus the unstoppable force.

(Much more at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/won ... -revealing

This guy was one among many who thought Trump would be an improvement over the Dem regime. Silly person, it is not personalities that drive the wheels of history. In our time it is capitalism, driving us pell-mell to doom by nuke or environmental collapse. (whichever come first...)

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Why ending with a whimper may be better

By allowing Ukraine to bomb Russia with US-made missiles, Biden may have strengthened Putin’s hand. If the war doesn’t end with a bang, it will open windows for engagement

M K Bhadrakumar
Updated on:
21 Nov 2024, 2:33 pm

Decades after US President Joe Biden disappears as a footnote to a turbulent chapter of American political history, his authorisation of the use of US-supplied ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles for strikes inside Russia will remain a mystery.

First, the timing. Biden waited till November 6. He had a Plan A in case Kamala Harris won and a Plan B in the scenario of a Donald Trump presidency. Biden has initiated Plan B, which dares Russian President Vladimir Putin to respond with nuclear retaliation.

Biden sees it as a win-win. If Putin acts as promised, a nuclear confrontation ensues, which would disrupt Trump’s hopes to normalise the Russian-American relationship. But if Putin doesn’t (re)act, Moscow’s nuclear deterrence increasingly looks like a bluff and the Ukraine war gets ‘Trump-proofed’ till 2028. Indeed, if Trump confronts Biden now, he risks resuscitating the moribund ‘Russia collusion’ hypothesis that hobbled his first term. So, Trump plans to get away to his new golf course in Scotland.

Biden’s villainous plot may look smart. But that’s only as smart as his original plan that Western sanctions would ruin the Russian economy. In October, the IMF ranked Russia as the fourth largest economy after the US, China and India based on purchasing power parity, the most accurate measuring scale for GDP, surpassing Japan.

The Russian economy’s upgrade in recent years, overtaking European competitors one after another—the UK, France, Germany and Japan—was driven by Western sanctions, which compelled Putin to implement aggressive import substitution and establish domestic production.


Russian people rallied behind Putin, which created political space to wage a prolonged attritional war, whereas Biden kept measuring the success of the proxy war with near-term territorial objectives. Russia is on the brink of a military victory and even Western policymakers admit Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. The entire Western narrative has unravelled. Biden’s worst fears are coming true as Russian generals accelerate the offensive and go for the kill to reduce Ukraine to a rump state. Biden hopes to kick the can down the road to avoid the stigma of a strategic defeat worse than Vietnam.

The Russian defence ministry has announced that on Monday night into Tuesday, Ukraine fired six US-made long-range ATACMS missiles at Russia’s border region of Bryansk. Washington is playing a cat-and-mouse game. No formal announcement has yet been made on the policy shift regarding the use of ATACMS. The Pentagon has simply ducked—although any launch of ATACMS missiles would be impossible without US/NATO satellite feeds and/or personnel. Suffice to say, NATO/US has entered the Ukraine war directly.

Why ending with a whimper may be better
In a first, Russia launches intercontinental ballistic missile in attack on Ukraine
This is a qualitatively new round of escalation. The revised Russian nuclear doctrine envisages, among other things, that Moscow will view an aggression from a non-nuclear state (Ukraine), carried out with participation or support of a nuclear state (the US, UK or France) as their joint attack, which becomes ground for the use of nuclear weapons by Russia.

Putin has a tough decision to take. It is a fair estimation that he will size up that Russia is now technically in a state of war with NATO and cannot remain passive. But equally, Putin’s statecraft shows consistently that while he is firm and decisive, he also remains judicious—and, above all, a realist.

To be sure, Russian reaction will be measured and carefully calibrated. And Russia is not without asymmetric options, which could lethally impact American interests elsewhere. Washington has shut the US embassy in Kyiv, apprehending that Russia may now begin targeting the American military personnel deployed in Ukraine. The bottomline is that the ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles are by no means a wonder weapon beyond the capability of Russia’s formidable air defence system to counter.

Russia is playing the long game. Most certainly, the Kremlin will not go back on Putin’s pledge that all the objectives of the so-called special military operation in Ukraine will be fulfilled. Meanwhile, interestingly, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has added last week that a new war is also commencing—with NATO.

As regards the big picture, French and British bravado notwithstanding, Europeans lack the grit or capacity to fight Russia on their own steam without US leadership. On the other hand, a negotiated settlement remains elusive, since Moscow insists on an irrevocable treaty document after the searing experience of successive betrayals by the West (such as NATO expansion)—which, curiously, Joseph Stalin also sought after the Second World War but the West rejected and instead opted for the exit strategy of creating NATO “to keep Americans in, Germans down and the Russians out”.

Fundamentally, the Western mindset hasn’t changed. Therefore, the crux of the matter today is that Russia, which is winning the war, also needs to win the peace, as Ukraine has been, is and will remain the very cornerstone of European security.

Trump’s attitude will be crucial here but there is no clarity yet. There are communication channels between Putin and Trump. Although Trump does not have access to secure communication channels before his inauguration, “There are aides. Mechanisms for dialogue are in place and, if there is political will, they can be easily and promptly employed,” Peskov said on Monday.

Of course, Trump, a quintessential businessman, could cleverly outwit Biden by blaming Volodymyr Zelenskyy for being intransigent and walking away, dumping the conflict on the US’s European allies who have no stomach for war. That is to say, as Financial Times put it, “in the end, the American president may well choose to give up on Ukraine altogether, and so end the war, as had been promised, by letting Russia win it”.

Such a scenario of Russia securing its interests not necessarily with a bang may eminently suit Putin. If the war is allowed to end with a whimper, it may not be a bad thing, as it allows Moscow to persuade Kyiv to see the light of reason apropos Russia’s legitimate interests, while also opening a window to engage with Europe.

Moscow will not accept any form of Western military presence in what remains of Ukraine. Biden unknowingly strengthened Russia’s case for establishing a de-militarised buffer zone along its western border.

M K Bhadrakumar

Former diplomat

(Views are personal)

https://www.indianpunchline.com/why-end ... be-better/.

The Holodomor Industry

The 'Bandera Lobby' and the Ukrainian Holocaust industry
Moss Robeson
Nov 23, 2024

Note to subscribers: Substack says this post is “too long for email.”

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Books about the “Ukrainian genocide” and Banderite “liberation movement” published by Ucrainica Research Institute, a Canadian OUN-B front group that is also a co-owner of the Banderite headquarters building in Kyiv.
The term “Holodomor” became popular in Ukraine and among the diaspora especially in the late 1980s. The phonetic similarity of Holodomor to Holocaust was not a coincidence. The immediate trigger for the nationalists’ famine discourse was the popular miniseries Holocaust, which was broadcast in 1978 by NBC and was watched by millions of North Americans … At that time and into the 1980s, relatively little demographic research had been conducted on the subject of the famine; this made it easier to exaggerate the number of victims. The approximate number of 2.5 to 3.9 million Ukrainian victims of the famine became known only in the early 1990s. The nationalist elements of the diaspora claimed that during the “Holodomor” more Ukrainians were killed than Jews were during the Holocaust.

—Grzegorz Rossolinski-Liebe’s biography of Stepan Bandera (2014)

Indeed the number of Holocaust victims became “sanctified” in Jewish and everyone’s minds. Regardless of what was, is or will be said, that’s the number of killed Jews. Question it and you become an evil denier. So why are we, Ukrainians, allowing a discussion about the number of Holodomor victims? Why are some Ukrainian and non-Ukrainians discounting the number of dead to a mere 4 million? My generation of baby boomers grew up with the figure of 7 million Ukrainian men, women and children starved to death by Russia in 1932-33 just for being Ukrainian. That figure must be sanctified against all others in our and everyone’s minds.

—Ihor Dlaboha, former editor of OUN-B’s “National Tribune” (2020)

Holodomor Observance: 10 million Ukrainian men, women and children starved to death by Russia. Never Forget; Never Forgive!

—Dlaboha, months after Russia invaded Ukraine (2022)

Many contemporaries, such as the Italian ambassador, who traveled through Ukraine in summer 1933, deemed the famine deliberate. Monstrously, Stalin himself made the same accusation—accusing peasants of not wanting to work. … Nonetheless, the famine was not intentional. It resulted from Stalin’s policies of forced collectivization-dekulakization, as well as the pitiless and incompetent management of the sowing and procuring campaigns, all of which put the country on a knife-edge, highly susceptible to drought and sudden torrential rains. … [Stalin’s] actions do not indicate that he was trying to exterminate peasants or ethnic Ukrainians. … [T]here was no ‘Ukrainian’ famine; the famine was Soviet.

—Stephen Kotkin’s biography of Josef Stalin (2017)

So how many people were actually killed by the famine? From 2.5 to 3.5 million. Those who died disproportionately were the rural population (predominantly Ukrainians) and little children. May their memory be eternal. And let me add: may it be unsullied by falsehood. I find it disrespectful to the dead that people use their deaths in a ploy to gain the moral capital of victimhood. To this end, they inflate the numbers ... The point of these ideas is that the Holodomor is bigger than the others, particularly bigger than the Holocaust. I do not understand why others are not offended by this competition for victimhood, even if the numbers were true, which they are not.

—John-Paul Himka, noted historian of Ukraine (2008)


‘Holocaust Industry’ vs. ‘Holodomor Industry’
Apparently around the time that Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine, in the spring of 2021, the OUN-B legal “hit man” in the United States, Askold Lozynskyj, wrote an article on “the complexities of Jewish-Ukrainian relations,” which in short he blamed on the “Holocaust industry.” Five years earlier, Lozynskyj debated historian John-Paul Himka on the role of Banderites in the Holocaust, and at the first opportunity, smeared Himka of being “perceived as a self-loathing Ukrainian” and “a hired gun, if you will,” for the “Holocaust industry.” According to historian Per Rudling, “Anti-Semitism is a central component in Lozynskyj’s apologetics.”

[Lozynskyj] claims that ‘an … overwhelming amount of Soviet accomplices during the Soviet’s two years in Western Ukraine from 1939-1941 were Jews,’ alleges Jewish control over Canadian media, and charges that scholars who study the anti-Jewish violence of the OUN and UPA are paid to ‘invent demons’ by Jewish interests. He dismisses scholarly studies of the OUN’s racism with references to the alleged Jewish ethnicity of the researchers.[

After the Ukrainian American former Nazi death camp guard, John Demjanjuk, died behind bars in Germany in 2012, Askold Lozynskyj mourned him as a “martyr” of the “Jewish Holocaust industry.” Lozynskyj, a former president of the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America (1992-2000) and the Ukrainian World Congress (1998-2008), subsequently chaired the international coordinating body of OUN-B “facade structures” formerly known as the “World Ukrainian Liberation Front” (2009-2013). For years, Lozynskyj was an attorney for Bohdan Kohziy, a Banderite former member of the Nazi auxiliary police. It was under Lozynskyj’s leadership that the Ukrainian World Congress organized its “International Coordinating Committee for Holodomor Awareness and Recognition.”

Arguing “The Case for Seven to Ten Million” on behalf of the “International Holodomor Coordinating Committee,” Lozynskyj admitted that this range included the unconceived children of those who died. From at least 2008 until his death this year, Stefan Romaniw of Melbourne, Australia was a top leader of the Ukrainian World Congress and the chairman of its International Holodomor Coordinating Committee. “We can hope for a better future only if crimes against people are recognized,” Romaniw once said. Another time, after someone vandalized the famous “Bitter Memory of Childhood” statue next to the Holodomor memorial complex in Kyiv, Romaniw drew a connection to Canada’s vandalized monuments that honor the Waffen-SS Galicia Division.

Stefan Romaniw (1955-2024) was the longtime chairman of the Australian Federation of Ukrainians Organisations. In 1986, he became the head of the “Ukrainian Liberation Front” in Australia and made a speech on behalf of Banderite youth at the funeral of the monstrous OUN-B leader Yaroslav Stetsko. That year, Demjanjuk’s most high-profile trial began in Jerusalem, Oxford University Press published The Harvest of Sorrow, and the Australian association of Banderite World War II veterans (from the “Ukrainian Insurgent Army”) compiled an extremely antisemitic 110 page screed: “Why is One Holocaust Worth More Than Others?”

Meanwhile, the U.S. Commission on the Ukraine Famine, set up by Congress, began to conduct its research, and eventually concluded that an anti-Ukrainian genocide claimed anywhere from 3 to 8 million victims in 1932-33. According to the journalist Savroula Pabst, “Although mostly conducted by United States government officials … nine of the fifteen members of the commission were chosen because they were prominent members of the Ukrainian American community.”

Among the Commissioners was Bohdan Fedorak of Warren, Michigan, the president of the World Ukrainian Liberation Front who campaigned against the Justice Department’s Nazi-hunting Office of Special Investigations and succeeded Stetsko upon his death as the honorary chairman-in-exile of the short-lived pro-Nazi government that the Banderites declared on June 30, 1941. Russ Bellant’s 1988 exposé, “Old Nazis, New Right, and the Republican Party,” meant that Fedorak had to step down from the “Ukrainians for Bush” campaign, but not the Famine Commission.

Stefan Romaniw, the undisputed leader of the organized Ukrainian Australian community, took over OUN-B in 2009, not long after his inauguration as king of the Banderite-led “Holodomor lobby.” It was in 2003, “after heavy lobbying by Australia’s Ukrainian community,” that the Australian Senate recognized the 1932-33 famine in Soviet Ukraine as “one of the most heinous acts of genocide in history” which killed “an estimated 7 million Ukrainians.”

Romaniw’s third term as the OUN-B leader came to an end in 2022, but he organized the October 2023 convention of the Ukrainian World Congress (UWC), and got re-elected as its first vice-president. This Banderite leader of the UWC and its International Holodomor Coordinating Committee (IHCC) represented the Ukrainian diaspora as one of the founders of the charity tasked with financing the construction of Ukraine’s “National Holomodor-Genocide Museum.” (Last year, Zelensky announced that Canada agreed to cover the remaining costs.)

By 2008, the IHCC was established with Irene Mycak of Canada as its secretary. She apparently remains in this position. For many years, Mycak has also chaired the Ukrainian Canadian Congress’ National Holodomor Awareness Committee. As of 2012, she was a board member of the League of Ukrainian Canadians and the secretary of two more Canadian OUN-B front groups: Homin Ukrainy Publishers and Ucrainica Research Institute. At the same time, Irene Mycak worked for the Ukrainian World Congress, also based in Toronto, as its communications director. Her husband, Harry Nesmasznyj, has been the executive director of the OUN-B affiliated Ukrainian Youth Association of Canada for about 35 years.

In the fall of 2020, the UWC’s Banderite-led IHCC announced the “Global Holodomor Descendants Network,” to be chaired by Olya Soroka, a member of the U.S. Holodomor Committee. Soroka is also a board member of the Ukrainian American Freedom Foundation (UAFF), the financial arm of OUN-B in the United States that owns 40% of the Banderite headquarters building in Kyiv. The agenda for the 2021 annual meeting of the OUN-B “Land Leadership of America,” distributed by the UAFF president (Walter Zaryckyj), called for reports from representatives of the Banderite “facades” in the United States, including a “Holodomor Survivors Society.” This probably referred to the US branch of Soroka’s network.

The chief ambassador of the UWC’s Banderite-led “Holodomor Descendants Network” is Kateryna Yushchenko (née Chumachenko), former First Lady of Ukraine (2005-2010). Like Soroka, she is a Banderite from Chicago. In the 1980s, after a controversial OUN-B takeover of the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America (UCCA), Chumachenko directed the UCCA’s Ukrainian National Information Service in Washington before working in the Reagan White House. The UCCA’s Banderite-infested Washington office, with especially close ties to the far-right Heritage Foundation in those days, initiated the creation of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus in 1997 and the U.S. Holodomor Committee in 2006.

Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko came to power after the “Orange Revolution” of 2004-2005. Yushchenko was the first President of Ukraine to embrace the Bandera cult and the 10 million “famine-genocide” narrative. According to the historian Georgiy Kasianov, in his 2022 book, Memory Crash,

It is well known that Viktor Yushchenko, who was well informed about the numerous and diverse studies of historians and demographers of the 2000s, chose to ignore their data and insisted that the total number of Holodomor victims amounted to seven to ten million people. The source of his inspiration is no secret: it was actively defended by the “nomenklatura” of the Ukrainian diaspora, in particular the leadership of the Ukrainian World Congress (UWC). The June 1, 2008 report of the International Coordination Committee of the UWC headed by Stefan Romaniw, the leader of the OUN (Bandera faction), clearly contained the figure of seven to ten million victims, which was to be promoted to the presidential secretariat and the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory. The victimhood competition evolved in the context of a political situation in which the formula “seven to ten is greater than six” played an important role. Stanislav Kulchytsky recalled, that the head of the World Congress of Ukrainians Askold Lozynskyj insisted on 7–10 million simply because it is bigger than 6 million, the number of Jews who perished during Holocaust. Lozynskyj in turn suggested that Kulchytsky and his followers deliberately reduce the number of Holodomor victims to avoid competition with the Holocaust. The very term “Holocaust” was appropriated. During the period of active build-up of the cultural memory of the Holodomor, the famine of 1932–33 was quite often called the Ukrainian Holocaust. It should be mentioned that this pattern of manipulation of the figures was not appropriated even by the majority of supporters of the genocidal version of Holodomor in Ukrainian academia.

As many reading this will already know, shortly before leaving office, Viktor Yushchenko posthumously awarded Stepan Bandera the title of “Hero of Ukraine.” “Yushchenko’s presidency represented the pinnacle of diaspora influence on history writing in Ukraine,” historian Per Rudling wrote about a year later.

It elevated the diaspora’s historical myths to state policy and provided state funding to institutions tasked with the development of legitimizing narratives which the cult of the OUN leaders required. Yushchenko developed a memory politics based heavily upon a victimization narrative, “a meta-narrative that categorized Ukraine as a nation-victim by integrating all central historical events of the twentieth century, from the civil war and Sovietization to the Chernobyl disaster.” The culmination was the 1932–1933 famine, presented as the central and defining event of the Soviet period.

In November 2007, Viktor Yushchenko awarded Australian OUN-B leader Stefan Romaniw the Order of Merit for his “Holodomor” activism. In the coming days, Romaniw visited Yushchenko at his presidential residence to discuss the “year of global activities” planned for 2008 to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the 1932-33 famine in Soviet Ukraine.

Ukraine had recently held parliamentary elections, and soon had a new Cabinet of Ministers. According to the Ukrainian Weekly, the new government included a “pair of key officials with whom Mr. Romaniw has been working closely on Holodomor recognition”—vice-prime minister for humanitarian affairs Ivan Vasiunyk and foreign affairs minister Volodymyr Ohryzko.

Foreign Affairs Minister Ohryzko and his team will also play a role in supporting a planned International Holodomor Torch Relay, that will be launched in Mr. Romaniw’s native Australia and will pass through 17 countries, until ultimately reaching Kyiv on the last Saturday of November, when annual events commemorating the Holodomor are held.

As we shall see, the Banderites largely spearheaded this global relay of the “International Holodomor Remembrance Flame,” also known as the “Ukrainian Genocide Torch.” Stefan Romaniw singled out Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, the nationalist director of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) under Yushchenko, as someone who “has proven to be a true leader on these issues, certainly setting the pace.” According to Georgiy Kasianov,

[i[During Yushchenko’s term as president, the SBU began to manage the National Memorial Museum of the Victims of Occupational Regimes “Prison on Lontskoho [A.K.A. Lonsky] Street,” created in 2008–2009 in Lviv; the museum belonged to the agency and the SBU was the formal employer of the museum staff.[/i]

This Banderite-run museum, where “Jewish suffering is omitted,” houses the main office of the Center for Research of the Liberation Movement, an OUN-B “facade structure” via which the Banderites largely seized control of the SBU archives and eventually the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory. Nalyvaichenko’s SBU even published “a list of perpetrators of the 1932-33 famine in Ukraine, defiantly accompanying their party pseudonyms with their birth names and surnames.” Again quoting Memory Crash by Kasianov:

The resulting list included many Jewish surnames. The Ukrainian Jewish Committee (UJC) immediately reacted to the publication with a statement that the SBU “places responsibility for the Holodomor tragedy on Jews and Latvians.” The UJC emphasized that in this particular case, the SBU did not mention several high-ranking Ukrainian party members who were obviously responsible for the disaster.

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“Stefan Romaniw, chair of the International Coordinating Committee of the 75th Anniversary of the Famine-Genocide in Ukraine, and Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, acting chair of the Security Service of Ukraine, at an August press conference in Kyiv.” (Ukrainian Weekly, 2007)
In 2008, a well-known Australian journalist, Steve Waldon, produced an article on the “year of global activities approved by Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko and largely driven by a Melbourne man, Stefan Romaniw.” Waldon wrote that Yushchenko “put him [Romaniw] in charge of the worldwide Holodomor commemorations.” That turned out to be a lifetime appointment for the OUN-B leader.

The torch made two trips to Canada in 2008, at first accompanied by Romaniw. Stefan Horlatsch, an elderly founder of the Canadian branch of the OUN-B’s Ukrainian Youth Association, reportedly “carried the International Holodomor Remembrance Flame across Canada.” The torch’s arrival on Canadian soil and presentation at Toronto’s City Hall coincided with the opening of an exhibit there (“Holodomor: Genocide by Famine”) that was “prepared by” the OUN-B’s League of Ukrainian Canadians and its Ucrainica Research Institute, which is a co-owner of the OUN-B headquarters building in Ukraine.

“Together Let’s Build 1000 Monuments to the [Ten Million] Victims of the Holodomor,” says Ucrainica’s outdated “Holodomor education” website. According to Per Rudling, “A prioritized area for Ucrainica’s activities includes the ideological training of the [Ukrainian-Canadian] youth, disseminating its narrative of the past through OUN(b)-affiliated schools.” In 2008, Yushchenko got a “hero’s welcome” in Canada, including standing ovations in Parliament, and the Canadian government recognized the “Holodomor” as a genocide. Canada also established “Ukrainian Famine and Genocide Memorial Day.”

In those days, Paul Grod, a former Banderith youth leader (and now president of the Ukrainian World Congress), chaired the politically influential Ukrainian Canadian Congress. In addition to getting the “famine-genocide” recognized, another stated priority for the Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC) was defending Wasyl Odynsky, a Ukrainian Canadian former “Trawniki man” reportedly “sent to serve as a guard near the grounds of a [Nazi] forced labour camp operated by the SS at Poniatowa.” According to the UCC, “after significant advocacy by the [Ukrainian Canadian] Congress, the Government of Canada decided not to revoke the citizenship of Wasyl Odynsky, who was found by a federal court to have misrepresented his war time activities when he immigrated to Canada.”

The UCC singled out the lobbying efforts of the OUN-B affiliated League of Ukrainian Canadians (LUC) to “ensure the passing of Holodomor legislation in Ontario.” Fifteen years later, in November 2023, Ontario decided to make “Holodomor education” mandatory for high school students. The UCC’s National Holodomor Commemoration Committee, chaired by LUC member Irene Mycak, reported during its first “National Holodomor Awareness Week” in November 2008,

Alberta’s Ministry of Education included the Holodomor in its high school curriculum. The Toronto School Board will include the Holodomor in its 2009 curriculum and the fourth Friday of every November will be marked in the schools as Holodomor Memorial Day. There is a great deal of work still to be done. We must continue working with our provincial ministries of education and local school boards to ensure that our students in Canada learn about the Holodomor.

Meanwhile in Kyiv, President Yushchenko unveiled Phase One of the Holodomor Memorial Complex. Days later in Washington, the Banderite First Lady of Ukraine spoke at the dedication of the future site of the “Ukrainian Genocide Memorial” in the U.S. capital. Kateryna Yushchenko and Michael Sawkiw, the Banderite proxy chairman of the U.S. National Committee to Commemorate the 75th Anniversary of the Ukrainian Genocide, gave special thanks to Rep. Sandy Levin (D-MI).

In 1993, Levin introduced legislation in the House of Representatives to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the “forced famine to repress the Ukrainian peasantry in order to suppress Ukrainian self-assertion,” according to which “an estimated 7 million to 10 million people starved to death in Ukraine.” The Banderite-led Ukrainian Congress Committee of America (UCCA) takes credit for having “initiated the formation of the Congressional Ukrainian Caucus” in 1997, which Sandy Levin co-founded. In the coming years, he sponsored legislation that authorized the Ukrainian government to establish “a memorial to victims of the Ukrainian famine and genocide of 1932 and 1933” in Washington.

“To say that Rep. Levin is a friend of Ukraine is an understatement!” declared UCCA president Michael Sawkiw in 2008 (who was elected president again in 2024). “Where would we be today without his vigilant support and sponsorship of so many important issues, in particular the new site appropriated for the Ukrainian Genocide Memorial?”

Some may recall Levin’s close relationship to OUN-B leaders from his district, Bohdan Fedorak and Borys Potapenko, whom he considered “strong and close pals” by 2000. In the late 1970s, Potapenko led a campaign against NBC airing its Holocaust miniseries, which according to historian Grzegorz Rossolinski-Liebe was the “immediate trigger for the nationalists’ famine discourse.” For several years now, Potapenko has chaired the “International Council in Support of Ukraine,” the OUN-B coordinating body formerly known as the “World Ukrainian Liberation Front.”

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Lubomyr Luciuk is a notorious defender of Ukrainian Nazi collaborators in Canada. He is also a Banderite memory warrior, who once fantasized about throwing tomato soup at Canada’s national Holocaust monument. At this December 2021 Holodomor event in New Jersey, Luciuk talked about his new book, “Operation Payback: Soviet Disinformation and Alleged Nazi War Criminals in North America.”

(Much, much more at link. 'If there weren't any Nazis capitalism would have to invent them.' Oh, wait...)

https://banderalobby.substack.com/p/the ... r-industry

******

How is this possible?!
November 26, 12:54

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Jihadi-Julian is perplexed by what is happening at the front.

P.S. Yesterday our forces really broke through to the center of Kurakhovo to the southwest of the elevator and started fighting there. Up to 35-40% of Kurakhovo is already under the control of Russian troops. The pocket to the south of Kurakhovo is also collapsing. The enemy is surrendering the settlement and rolling back to Uspenovka.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9518212.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Nov 27, 2024 12:45 pm

Biden after the election
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/27/2024

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Before the US elections, two articles – one in The Washington Post and the other in The Guardian – raised the possibilities that would open up for the last 76 days of the legislature, when Joe Biden would have a final phase of his mandate in which he could push the machine to do everything possible to help Ukraine in the common goal of militarily defeating Russia. Among the proposals put forward in those articles, two stood out: lifting the veto on the use of long-range Western weapons against Russian territory and offering Ukraine an invitation to join NATO. Although both proposals contain large doses of provocation, the second would be considered an extremely dangerous step for Moscow.

Since the Democratic electoral defeat on November 5, Joe Biden and his European allies have announced permission to use Western missiles on the territory of the Russian Federation and the bombings have already begun, although these acts have not meant any change in the trend on the front. Russia continues to advance in Donbass and gradually regain ground in Kursk while Ukraine focuses on inflicting as many losses as possible on Russia in the rear using its Western missiles and home-made drones. Yesterday, Russia confirmed new attacks with Western missiles, showed images of the remains of some of these projectiles and admitted damage (Ukraine claims to have destroyed S-400 air defense systems) at one of its air bases in Kursk.

Ukraine's actions and words confirm that kyiv is prioritising the issue of security over the recovery of lost territory. This is not, in any way, a change of position that implies the surrender of territories, but rather the achievement of the most difficult objective a priori, that of security guarantees. kyiv is not satisfied with a bilateral agreement with one of its allies, but rather aspires to get the West to cross the main red line for Russia in this war: Ukraine's entry into NATO. This step would make any diplomatic agreement completely impossible for Moscow, one of the reasons why kyiv aspires to achieve this objective over the recovery of territorial integrity. As Angela Merkel has admitted these days when promoting her memoirs, Ukraine's accession to NATO was always going to mean war for Russia. An invitation from the Alliance to Ukraine now would inevitably mean the continuation of the war scenario until one of the sides was militarily defeated. There is no other way for Russia to accept the arrival of the Western military bloc on its borders with a militarized Ukraine and host of deterrent packages , i.e. Western missiles. This position, somewhat comparable to what Israel represents for the West in the Middle East, an aircraft carrier that cannot be sunk, is what Kiev aspires to, which has not tried to hide the fact that it presents itself as an external border of the Western world explicitly directed against Russia.

Advancing this will has been one of the most sought-after objectives by Ukraine in recent years and is even more important now, when kyiv is awaiting the arrival in power of someone who has not shown particular closeness to NATO, especially to its enlargement. Hence the Ukrainian rush to obtain the invitation, a step that generally has no turning back.

None of the articles mentioned about Biden's actions in his last two months in power even considered extending the invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance in the event of an electoral defeat on November 5. However, after the White House's provocative step of allowing the use of Western missiles against Russian territory, Joe Biden seems to have even considered crossing what is perhaps the clearest red line for Moscow: Ukraine's accession to NATO.

“When Putin and other Kremlin officials talk about preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, it is easy because it is not seriously on the agenda. The president-elect has called the idea of ​​it happening soon “far-fetched,” and German officials express similar sentiments in less Trumpian language,” said an article published by The Times last week that asks what kind of agreement is possible in pursuit of peace. The starting point is to understand the most basic: if peace is truly desired, NATO cannot be part of it and its expansion into Ukraine can only be a factor of destabilisation and, under current conditions, more war. “We would have seen a military conflict even sooner.” “It was absolutely clear to me that President Putin would not sit idly by and watch Ukraine join NATO,” Angela Merkel said in an interview with the BBC . Despite being pressured and insulted, she added that she did not regret having vetoed Ukraine’s accession to the Alliance in 2008. Despite insistence that Ukraine would be a member of the Alliance in the future, the United States was also on the list of countries aware that such accession would be problematic and would not happen in the short or medium term.

However, the electoral defeat, the desire to condition the policy of the next president and the need to support Ukraine as much as possible at a time when several of its lines of defence are faltering seem to have made us forget certainties that, until not so long ago, seemed clear. “The Biden administration had also considered the possibility of publicly asking for an official invitation to join NATO, but decided not to do so given the low probability of success in the short term. Putin has also framed accession, which the allies said in July was inevitable, as a casus belli ,” wrote Bloomberg last week . According to the American media, the reason why the initiative has not gone ahead is not the danger of perpetuating the war, something that never seems to have worried the Democratic administration, but that it would not take effect imminently.

Western countries are still willing to cross dangerous red lines in order to prevent Ukraine from reaching a possible negotiation in a position other than one of strength. On Monday, Le Monde revived Emmanuel Macron’s proposal that caused great controversy a few months ago and stated that France and the United Kingdom are discussing forms of military cooperation “on defence cooperation, in particular with the aim of creating a base of allies in Europe focused on Ukraine and European security in general,” a British source told the French newspaper, citing numerous sources, stating that “as the Ukrainian conflict enters a new phase of escalation, discussions on sending Western troops and private security companies to Ukrainian territory have been reactivated.” The dynamics of escalation once again put red lines on the table that until now seemed inviolable.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/11/27/31031/

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******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
0:17
On the night of November 25, a major fire broke out in warehouses in the Khadzhibey district of Odessa. According to a long-standing tradition, the partisans of the Resistance movement (the Opir movement) shared the results. Diesel generators, ready to be sent to the front to warm up the Nazis fighting against us, as well as boxes of ammunition, were hidden in the warehouses. The heating season for the Armed Forces of Ukraine was completely disrupted by the partisans and the entire contents of the warehouses were set on fire. 22 fire engine crews tried to cope with the fire on almost 2,000 square meters. Resistance behind enemy lines and their actions certainly make a huge contribution to our common victory. We work, brothers.

***

Colonelcassad
⚡️ Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of November 26, 2024)

— Units of the North group of forces in the Kharkov direction inflicted a defeat on the formations of the 116th territorial defense brigade and the 5th border detachment of the border service of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Lebedivka and Kazachya Lopan in the Kharkov region.

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 115 servicemen, a tank, a car and a 122-mm howitzer D-30.

— Units of the West group of forces, as a result of decisive actions, liberated the settlement of Kopanki in the Kharkov region.

The manpower and equipment of the 43rd, 44th, 67th Mechanized, 25th Airborne Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 115th Territorial Defense Brigade were damaged in the areas of the settlements of Kupyansk, Senkovo, Lozovaya, Zagoruykovka, Novoplatonovka in the Kharkov region and Ivanovka in the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy lost up to 440 servicemen, a tank, an armored combat vehicle, five cars, and a Polish-made 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Krab". The "Anklav-N" electronic warfare station and three field ammunition depots were destroyed.

— Units of the "Southern" group of forces improved the position along the forward edge, defeated the formations of the 23rd, 54th mechanized, 10th mountain assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Konstantinovka, Dachnoye and Slavyansk of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy's losses amounted to 485 servicemen, an armored personnel carrier, a combat armored vehicle and two cars. A field ammunition depot was destroyed.

— Units of the "Center" group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense, defeated the manpower and equipment of the 151st mechanized, 68th infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 38th marine brigade, the 14th national guard brigade and the 132nd territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Grodovka, Dachenskoye, Mirolyubovka, Dimitrov and Pravdovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy lost over 450 servicemen, a tank, five vehicles, a 203-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Pion", a 152-mm howitzer "Msta-B", two 152-mm guns D-20 and two 122-mm howitzers D-30.

— Units of the "East" force group took up more advantageous lines and positions, defeated the formations of the 33rd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 127th and 241st territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Razliv, Komar and Oktyabr of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy's losses amounted to 125 servicemen, a tank, six vehicles, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Bogdana" and a 152-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Akatsiya".

— Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 103rd, 124th and 126th territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Olgovka, Molodezhnoye and Nikolskoye in the Kherson region.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 60 servicemen, two vehicles and a 122-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Gvozdika". The Anklav-N electronic warfare station was destroyed.

- Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, control points of unmanned aerial vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, from which kamikaze drones were launched at the Zaporizhzhya NPP, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 135 districts.

❗️Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces recorded five attacks and three drone-type attacks on the settlement of Energodar and the territory adjacent to the Zaporizhzhya NPP. No one was hurt as a result of the provocation, and one administrative building was slightly damaged. Two drones were destroyed by air defense systems, and one was suppressed by electronic warfare. Currently, the Zaporizhzhya NPP personnel continue to work in the normal mode, service the NPP facilities and monitor the radioactive situation.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*******

Sputnik 2.0? Oreshnik and the Western Military Capabilities Gap
Posted on November 25, 2024 by Yves Smith

This post endeavors, at a very high level, to discuss how the US/NATO shortcomings against Russia and the so-called West’s geostrategic competitors, are more foundational than most commentators recognize. This is due at least in part to an onslaught of propaganda maintaining long-standing prejudices against Slavs and non-white countries that industrialized after Europe.1

Even so, the seeming cognitive block to admitting Russia prowess is leading to bizarre and self-defeating responses, such as acting as if Russia will agree to a ceasefire or a pause on Ukraine NATO entry (when any discussion of “NATO entry” is a big red flag to the Russians) to US and NATO doubling down. They are insisting they will continue to violate Russia’s red lines by launching more “deep missile strikes” into Russia even after the successful demonstration of Russia’s formidable Oreshnik missile. France authorized the use of its long-range Scalp missiles against undisputed Russian territory after the Oreshink strike.

We’ll discuss a bit below some of accounts of the Oreshink works and why it is so significant (keep in mind I can’t independently verify either the information or the analyses; hopefully we’ll get more detail soon). The West ought to be reacting to the Oreshnik the same way the US did to the 1957 Sputnik launch: that it demonstrated that the US was seriously behind the USSR in key areas of expertise. There was a panicked acceleration of space-related spending as well as a broader push to increase math and sciences education.

But in fact the US and NATO have gotten many proofs of how their capability level is behind and if anything falling further behind, from Russian success in GPS signal-jamming and blocking Starlink to its air-defense prowess to Russia regularly using hypersonic missiles, while the US has only recently had a successful test.2

Now the US is the clear leader in some important weapons categories, such as submarines. But an even bigger from the perspective of capabilities is that the US and its allies seem to be operating from a dated playbook. And this problem appears to be deep seated. This goes beyond the problem identified by many experts early on, that NATO was optimized only for very local defense and for regional wars against insurgent forces (read mainly men in sandals with AK-47s and shoulder-launched missiles), not a peer power. ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) capabilities are not simply more important than ever but now drive battlefield operations.

Yet many former military officers have pointed out that the US concept of war remains mired in World War II notions like big arrow attacks. For instance, Andrei Martyanov has discussed how Russian weapons are “net centric” as in they communicate with each other. I believe this goes beyond tanks being able to say, “Here I am!” but sending back battlefield information.

I hope knowledgeable readers can opine, but I wonder if the US has also become complacent due to its satellite and in some cases, radar capabilities (the point of sending the THADD system to Israel was per either Lawrence Wilkerson or Douglas Macgregor not its small stock of missiles but its spectacular radar, which can “see” small objects at extremely long distances). We may be kidding ourselves as to the effectiveness of our current systems versus highly-intensive, multi-perspective surveillance of active battlefields.

Similarly (and I did listen to this clip 2x, so my recounting should be ), after his last visit to Russia, Scott Ritter described a long conversation with a military officer. Ritter’s interlocutor said he bet he knew how Ritter would plan an attack and Ritter obligingly provided the “right” response, as in classic combined arms operation with logistical support, with air strikes first, then air cover for a tank and infantry advance.

The Russia said, “That’s not how we do it.” The first step is to plan the drone map, as in to grid out the area and how to deploy drones to cover the theater of battle. The drones are also the first line of combat: “The drones lead the way.”

Mind you, the Russians can’t regard these as advanced ideas if an officer would casually pass them on to a foreign commentator. Yet Ritter found the information to be novel3

A second issue is that the West has not adapted to the related rise of the importance and power of unmanned weapons, witness the demonstrated impotence against Ansar Allah’s attacks on shipping.

One example is the great summer counteroffensive of 2023. It seemed ludicrous from the outset to think it would get much of anywhere. The West announced its plans well in advance, so Russia has ample time to make its Surovkin line even more robust that it might otherwise have. Russia could see Ukraine forces assembling. Bizarrely, the attack did not include meaningful air cover. Instead, US and NATO planners vested their hopes in idea that Russia troops would run away when the encountered Western weapons.

As readers know, the fight did not get as far as Russia’s first fortified line. Russians mined the tanks and armored vehicle approaches with drones, forcing them (mainly) to follow narrow paths cleared by mine-clearers. Taking out a single vehicle would stop an advance. When the vehicles tried to retreat, they would typically find that Russia had drone-mined their rear. Ukraine adapted by instead moving men in via armored personnel carriers, close to tree lines, and having them advance on foot. That made them vulnerable to drone attacks again, illustrating that Russia had drones in such abundance that it could afford to use them against small groups and even single soldiers.

This encounter should have been seen as a humiliating defeat. Perhaps I missed it, but I have not heard of any come across signs that that has been internalized by NATO or the US, meaning no/not enough of a post mortem much the less recognition of the need for a serious rethink of how the West wages war.

In June 2022, a landmark article published by the Royal United Services Institute, The Return of Industrial Warfare by Alex Vershinin, described how Russia was outproducing the West in artillery and it would take ten years of concerted effort by the West to catch up. Since then, Russia has increased its shell output considerably while Western efforts have floundered.

But even more important than the gap in what the West no doubt likes to see as comparatively crude weaponry is the West’s ever-more dated vision of what war is about. The Oreshnik ought to be a wake-up call but muted reactions suggest otherwise.4 Another sign is a new article in the Financial Times that discusses what Europe would need to do to defend itself without US backing.

What the Oreshnik Signifies

Let’s start in “sentence first, verdict afterward” mode. A reason Western officials are so upset about the Oreshnik is that it shows that Russia (sensibly) restarted work on intermediate range ballistic missiles after Trump exited the INF treaty in 2019, which had disallowed them. One obviously uncomfortable fact is that the fact that this missile is not just “merely hypersonic” but travels at >Mach 10. That means it can hit European targets at double-plus speed and cannot be intercepted.

Russia has been trolling:5

New Oreshnik (Hazel) missile, what we know so far:

- a new weapon, not an upgrade

- high-precision, medium-range, with hypersonic speed

- first used in combat on November 21, 2024, when it struck a Ukrainian defense facility in Dnepropetrovsk

- will be mass-produced


Another important feature is that the missile has MIRV-like capabilities (more expert commentary objects to calling it MIRV) in that the missile can and here did separate into 6 capsules which in turn each delivered 6 warheads, for a total of 36. I have weirdly seen a video that estimates the cost of the Oreshnik at “several million” and depicts that as expensive, when for 36 delivered warheads, even before getting to their impact, seems cheap.

But let’s turn to what seems to be the real showstopper, which is not the impressive flight speed and distance per se but the destructive effect:

Eyewitnesses: "Yuzhmash is gone"

In Ukraine, the SBU has completely classified the consequences of the strike by the "Oreshnik" on the defense plant "Yuzhmash" in Dnepropetrovsk. Despite the blockade in the Kiev media, residents of the city began to say for the first time that… Show more


As we’ll unpack in a bit, many commentators have seemed to discount the sheer kinetic and heat force of this weapon. We’ll work in a minute from the widely reported fact, supposedly based on estimates using the impact videos, that the missiles hit the ground at hypersonic speed.6 If that is accurate, that represents a vast increase in power.

Consider the old normal. a href=”https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/3m2 ... s/comments” rel=”nofollow”>Here is a typical recap; I recall Simplicius saying something very similar in an extensive treatment of hypersonic missiles but search is not being sufficiently helpful in tracking it down:

No missile is hypersonic in the terminal phase. The heat generated by lower atmospheric pressure would destroy it before it reached its target. The key to the success of hypersonic speed in the upper atmosphere is the plasma bubble that generates, which makes the missile invisible to radar. By the time it’s on its reentry track and has slowed down (still travelling fast) it’s too late to effectively target.

Now how could Russia have achieved what was heretofore deemed impossible? If the missiles indeed struck the ground at hypersonic speed, it’s due to new alloys to withstand the incredible re-entry heat.

Some have argued that the lack of apparent secondary explosions shows the Oreshnik was not impressive. That’s a misreading because the missiles drove deep into the ground and the great energy was dispersed and did its main damage there. Even so, this longer video shows some secondary blasts:

New footage reveals multiple Oreshnik missile strikes in Ukraine from an alternate angle.
Earlier, President Putin announced plans for mass production of the advanced ‘Hazel’ missile systems.

#RussiaUkraineWar #MissileStrike #Oreshnik #MilitaryUpdate #Putin

(video at link)


Even though Black Mountain Analysis concedes that claims about the actual destruction of the Yuzhmash plant vary, the lack of explosions at impact actually confirm the kinetic force of the weapons. From Black Mountain Analysis:

The impact on the target in this missile attack is astonishing. What is also interesting is that there are no visual signs of explosions typical for surface or near-surface detonations. This means the warheads likely penetrated deep into the ground with incredible momentum and hit the underground locations (workshops) with a force as powerful as if they had “detonated.” The kinetic shock wave will likely be enhanced by the instantaneous expansion of the soil moisture when exposed to the high temperatures caused by the warhead and the friction of intrusion into the ground at such depths…..

The missile is unknown, but the effect of its payload is a fascinating subject to cover. The “Oreshnik” missile system has extraordinary characteristics regarding the kinetic hit-to-kill mode. Warheads consist of special metals, and motors can achieve 10-11 Mach for these blocks, turning them into kinetic killers. The logic is simple – the higher the speed, the more energy is delivered. Therefore, this terminal block requires no explosive material but heavy, hard, and high-melting-point metal. At such high speeds, penetration into the target causes massive destruction on impact through the shockwaves, creating a mini-high concentrated localized earthquake. It does not need to hit the target precisely (just in the vicinity), and the sheer energy and momentum transfer will produce such shockwaves that will break the concrete structures deep underground. To do this, a camouflet explosion is developed. A camouflet explosion is an explosion at a relatively great depth, where no visible changes on the ground surface are formed.

The destruction of underground objects occurs when the object is within the fracture zone.

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From https://impact.uwo.ca/impact-craters/pr ... ct-crater/

The video below also endorses the notion that the impact speed is ~Mach 10 and provides some views early on of its small launch vehicle:



And Black Mountain Analysis explained long-form that the targeted Yuzhmash facility included significant and very well bunkered underground production areas and Ukraine was planning to use them for among other things, intercontinental ballistic missiles. He added:

According to some analysts, the plant and its design bureau are among the most extensive underground military bases, serving as a model for North Korean underground complexes

Even though the French statement authorizing the use of its Scalp missiles means that the significance of Oreshnik has not yet penetrated some of the thicker skulls in the Collective West, perhaps they are telling themselves that Russia does not have others in reserve yet. That is a dangerous bet. However, in a discussion with Daniel Davis, John Mearsheimer pointed out that Russia is winning in Ukraine and just needs to stay the course. Responding to Western provocations will distract from Russia’s larger objectives.

John Helmer confirmed this reading:

“Just as important,” the [Russian] source says, “the Russian ground offensive in the east will remain slow, patient, maybe for two years more. The priority is on preventing Russian casualties, conserving Russian lives. This is essential once you realize that the [Putin] presidential succession also depends, not only on winning the war on Russian terms, but ensuring the protection of Russian lives.”

And the reason for the Scalp missile barking may be that the Yuzhmash strike directly undercut more ATACMS and Storm Shadow missile salvos. Again from Helmer:

Although satellite images of the plant after Thursday’s attack have not been declassified or published in the open, what is likely is that the bunker stocks of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles being prepared at the plant for launching against Russia were destroyed, along with the factory-floor and machine capacities of the plant to service HIMARS, other rocket and missile firing equipment delivered by the US and NATO states to the Zelensky regime.

Mearsheimer pointed out that if the West again hit pre-2014 Russia, Putin’s druthers would be to mess with the US and its allies out of theater, such as by better arming Ansar Allah. Keep in mind that Western officials (even recently Jake Sullivan) have pointed out that ATACMS (and by extension Storm Shadow and Scalp) strikes will not change the outcome of the conflict. However, Mearsheimer pointed out that if politically-meaningful damage were done, Putin may have to respond to domestic pressure to make a visible and painful counterattack.

The West Does Not Appear to be Adapting to New Realities

Due to this post already being a bit long, we’ll give only cursory treatment to our second topic, that of the Collective West being wedded to an outdated mental model of how to wage war, and that in turn leading to misguided priorities. We will use a new story in the Financial Times, Can Europe defend itself with less American help?, as an object lesson.

We’ll put aside the considerable internal decision-making and coordination issues that NATO faces in the absence of US knocking heads together leadership. Auerlien has described them in gory detail over many posts, with NATO’s Phantom Armies as good one-stop shopping.

One can argue that the Financial Times would not represent the most advanced thinking in NATO, Perhaps that is true. But the Financial Times is fairly well plugged into political orthodoxy and what I call “leading edge conventional wisdom”. So it would seem reasonable to take its account of big priorities and impediments at face value.

One glaring issue is the way, as in the US, procuring and contracting drive the bus. This is an issue that Brian Berletic has repeatedly mentioned that is an impediment to Collective West military effectiveness, that our weapons-making is profit rather than purpose driven. In the EU, there’s an additional level of complexity, as in wrangling over who produces what. We have pointed out that NATO, as an actually administratively very weak and lose alliance, has mainly had inefficient national produced weapons, such as the afore-mentioned UK Storm Shadow versus French Scalp versus German Taurus missiles, and several national flavors of tanks and armored personnel carries, and even reports that 155mm shells are not as well standardized as they ought to be. The article confirms that by citing a McKinsey finding, that the US has 32 types of weapons systems versus 172 for Europe.

But what is striking about the piece is that it emphasizes what one might consider to be conventional warfare and with that, current major weapons categories. Not that that won’t remain important going forward. But there is a bizarre failure to recognize that some currently perceived-to-be-important weapons types are being made less potent or even irrelevant. Larry Johnson has argued that manned aircraft are going the way of the cavalry.

In light of the short discussion at the top of the paramount role of ISR and the increasingly powerful role of drones, this section reads as if Europe aspires to fight yesterday’s war:

And all that is in addition to what Europe would need to do should America withdraw from NATO. In that scenario, the things at the top of any hypothetical “to-do” list are what Edward Stringer, a former British RAF air marshal, calls the “boring stuff”.

“It’s ‘boring war’ — stuff like ammunition stockpiles, transport and logistics — that really matters,” says Stringer, who has written about a possible post-US NATO. “It’s also what almost nobody does properly at scale, except for the US.”

But some of what the US provides to Nato — such as its fleet of C17 cargo planes, which cost $340mn apiece and can carry 75 tonnes of equipment almost 4,500km without refuelling — is all but irreplaceable. US-made F-35s also increasingly sit at the heart of NATO'S combat air power, with more than 500 of the fighter jets expected to operate in Europe by the mid-2030s, IISS estimates.

The visuals confirm a love of older tech in the form of fighter jets. Note these are the only graphics in the piece:

Image

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Contrast this with increasing evidence of these jets being rendered less potent by Russian air defenses. From Simplicius:

Western pundits rejoice that the strike [into Kursk by Storm Shadows] “proves” how F-16s or other platform are able to hit Russia with Western missiles. The problem is, this strike proves—thus far at least—they’re too scared to launch them deep. The fact they targeted something right near the LOC indicates that the Su-24s, Mig-29s, or other carrying platforms (F-16s almost certainly not risked from their far-west Ukraine refuge) were terrified of coming anywhere close to the Russian border, as they would be shot down by S-400 or related systems.

You see, Ukraine’s export variant Storm Shadows are said to go 300km max, which means just to reach the compound in Kursk, the planes likely released the missiles at maximum distance all the way over the Dnieper river, safely out of Russian AD range


Ironically, the reason the command center in Kursk was vulnerable was that Russia was loath to put its S-400 launchers too close to Ukraine, so Western planners do look to have correctly identified an area of coverage weakness.

But the bigger point is this article no where mentions drones (which could allow Europe to leapfrog some of its older and overlapping weapons systems) and barely alludes to air defense, per a passing mention of Patriots:

That includes Germany’s Rheinmetall, Nordic multinational Nammo and MBDA, a European multinational that produces missiles, including Storm Shadows, and which started a $5.5bn joint venture this year with the US’s Raytheon to produce Patriot air defence missiles in Germany.

Patriot systems are widely considered to be inferior to the Russian S-400. Russia is already on to S-500 andS-550 systems. Perhaps I missed it, but I have not read that the Patriot has been upgraded.

Apologies for limiting ourselves to this new Financial Times story as a case study. However, it does strongly suggest, even if it cannot amount to definitive proof, that the Western understanding of its military capabilities is sorely dated.

______

1 One staple is that even articles that concede that Russia is winning in Ukraine still include ritual denigration of the Russian military. A recent example depicting Russia as primitive, even barbaric. From the BBC in Ukraine front could ‘collapse’ as Russia gains accelerate, experts warn:

The losses are compounded by the “meat grinder” approach said to be favoured by Russian commanders – describing the waves of recruits thrown towards Ukrainian positions in a bid to exhaust troops.

2 A related issue is Russia’s success in achieving close coordination of its battlefield forces and its arms manufacture. Russia has been feeding information from combat failures and successes back to weapons makers and has been making adaptations in time frames that are simply impossible in the US contracting process.

3 Ritter’s surprise is credible to me based on many years of competitor interviews. I was the only person at McKinsey to have the nerve to call direct competitors of my client Citibank and then get them to talk to me (not hiding that I was from McKinsey, engaged by a client in their space) and then more competitor interviews in my later life. The usual way to get them to agree was to remind them that they were in charge, they could terminate the talk at any time, and that I was seeking general market information. Inevitably, I would learn at least one item per interview of what the subject really did think was general market information that was new and useful to Citibank.

4 One example is a new, prominent story at the Wall Street Journal: Ukraine Clings to Shrinking Sliver of Russia, Expecting Trump to Push for Peace Talks. It mentions the Storm Shadow strike into Kursk and depicts it as killing a North Korean general (dubious) and providing a morale boost. Admittedly this article presents itself as having a tight focus, but works in unverified British claims like Russia having suffered 700,000 casualties, without mentioninng the Oreshnik strike.

5 Last night, this little RT video came up many times on a Twitter search on “Oreshnik” without even wanting to see it. It seems to have been significantly scrubbed; it took a lot of effort today to find the clip, although stills from it were more abundant.

6 This section admittedly relies heavily on Black Mountain Analysis, but I have seen other accounts make claims similar to his, so for convenience I will again cite this source:

Looking at the time lapse between the light flash and the reentry vehicle (or the warhead) disappear, and combined with the estimated height of the clouds of cc 600 m as per Ukrainian weather report at 02:00 AM. The warhead hit the ground about 0.15 seconds from the break from the clouds. The calculated speed is about 4 km/s or Mach 11.8. Anyone can play with the time by adding or reducing milliseconds but the calculated speed will be in the range of Mach 10+.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/11 ... s-gap.html

******

Russian Defense Ministry on ATACMS strikes on Russian territory
colonelcassad
November 26, 18:47

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Russian Defense Ministry on ATACMS strikes on Russian territory

According to confirmed data, over the past three days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have carried out two strikes with long-range Western weapons on targets in the Kursk region.

Thus, on November 23, the enemy launched a strike with five American-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles in the area of ​​the settlement of Lotaryovka (37 km northwest of Kursk) on the position of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile division.

During the anti-missile battle, the combat crew of the Pantsir air defense missile and gun system, which was providing cover for this division, destroyed three ATACMS missiles, and two reached their target.

As a result of the strike, the radar was damaged. There are casualties among the personnel.

On November 25, 2024, the Kiev regime launched another strike with eight ATACMS operational-tactical missiles on the Kursk-Vostochny airfield (settlement of Khalino). Seven missiles were shot down by the S-400 and Pantsir air defense missile and gun systems, one reached its target. As a result of falling missile fragments, two servicemen were slightly injured, and infrastructure facilities were slightly damaged.

During the inspection of the attack sites, it was reliably confirmed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out strikes with American-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles.

The Russian Ministry of Defense is monitoring the situation, and response actions are being prepared.

(c) RF Ministry of Defense

We are waiting.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9518964.html

Minus 500 in 10 days
November 27, 12:03

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The character in the video reports that in Dzerzhinsk, in one of the Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades, losses in 10 days amounted to "minus 500". Some simply disappeared. (Video at link.)

UAV company commander Andrey Onistrat on the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Toretsk:

I arrive in Toretsk as part of the 150th Brigade. I am going to interact with the 95th Brigade, which we are replacing. This has been going on for a long time, we can talk about it. On the first evening, I arrive in Toretsk, drive around all the points. He shows "here is one point, here is the second point, here is the third, here is this, here is this, here is this". From there I go to the Delta situation center and listen to the duty officer's report that up to 150 people [Russian Armed Forces fighters] have entered Toretsk, behind our lines. That is, it is clear that Toretsk is long, well, it is like Manhattan, and our LBS is physically located there at the very top, near Gorlovka. And at that moment, and there are already 150 people [Russian Armed Forces fighters] sitting here, and the 95th couldn’t handle it, that is, it’s a known fact, and at that moment we receive the task of withdrawing and replacing the 95th [brigade] to the LBS. That is, past the already captured territories. The first day — 4 armored vehicles, minus 40 people. They disappeared. Disappeared. Not only were they not accompanied, but they disappeared. On the second day, the situation repeats itself. I talk to the brigade commander, I say, “go listen to the situation in the situation center, you can see everything there, dots, people, how many people came in.” [Well, that is, 40 people went and didn’t come back?] No, they didn’t come back, they disappeared! [And the next day, the same 40 of our people?] Yes! Well, I don’t know if it was 40, I wasn’t at the command post when they were sent, but... In short, 10 days — minus 500 people. Just minus 500!

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9520003.html

Houthis advance on Krasnoarmeysk
November 27, 14:21

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The Houthi slipper hangs over Krasnoarmeysk.
There are indeed some Houthis in the SVO zone, but there is no talk yet of any significant number that would allow us to say that the Houthis will take Krasnoarmeysk. Although, if the supply of khat is established, then...

By the way, after Shoigu's visit to Kabul, there was talk not only of the imminent exclusion of the Taliban from the list of terrorists, but also of sending a limited contingent of Afghan troops to fulfill their international duty in Ukraine. They will extend the fight against drug production and use to Kiev.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9520165.html

)))

Google Translator

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On Ukrainian "mineral reserves"
November 26, 2024
Rybar

Recently, news emerged of the Kiev regime's plans to pay off its sponsors with minerals in order to avoid the end of Western support. There was even a map floating around Ukrainian websites that put the total value of the resources at a whopping $14.8 trillion.

In fact, such statements are an example of how the authorities of the so-called Ukraine manipulate statistics to attract the attention of the collective West. This is clearly visible in a detailed analysis of the theses and figures voiced in Kyiv:

Almost half of the declared amount is in the resources in the depths of the LPR, DPR, Crimea, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, and the Kiev regime does not have access to them. Another 20% is located in the Dnepropetrovsk region, and only 30% is at a relatively safe distance from the front line.

A considerable part of these minerals is simply of no interest to the collective West due to both the presence of its own deposits and the possibility of purchasing the same minerals at a lower price in other countries, which is more profitable than developing deposits in the so-called Ukraine.

At the same time, the method of calculating the cost of the resources declared by the Kyiv regime is not particularly transparent. Not to mention the fact that some deposits may be difficult to extract, and some fields may be completely unprofitable for further development.

As a result, Kyiv is trying to “sell” its sponsors the appearance of huge reserves of minerals, half of which are located outside the so-called Ukraine, and the figures for their value are taken almost “out of thin air”.

The technique works quite well: with the same manipulations, the Kiev regime was able in 2022 to convince the Western public that the influx of refugees from Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk or Khmelnitsky did not come to the EU for benefits, and that the regions of the so-called Ukraine remote from the front are subjected to daily carpet bombing and total destruction.

However, in this case we are talking about money - it is unlikely that the sponsors of the so-called Ukraine will be satisfied with just statements about some colossal reserves of minerals and will not bother to look at what they are being offered to invest in .

https://rybar.ru/ob-ukrainskih-zapasah- ... skopaemyh/

Kurakhovo direction: liberation of a number of settlements and fighting in Kurakhovo
November 26, 2024
Rybar

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Russian troops continue their rapid advance both on the approaches to Kurakhovo and to the south of it.

In the city itself, fierce battles continue in the urban areas. Ukrainian formations are conducting local counterattacks, trying to stabilize the situation. Due to the fact that the battles in the city are extremely dynamic, the front line in Kurakhovo is currently very conditional.

To the south, Russian troops are advancing along the Sukhoi ravine and are also advancing towards the N-15 highway from Dalny . To the west of the latter, there are also successes in the forest belt towards Yantarny .

On the line of Yelizavetovka - Ilyinka . The latter was liberated by Russian troops after several days of fighting. This was preceded by the clearing of a large stronghold to the east of the village by units of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division. Then they managed to reach the outskirts of Romanovka . According to some reports, Russian attack aircraft have already begun assault operations in the village. Significant advances by the Russian Armed Forces have also been recorded in the fields north of Ilyinka .

At the same time, fighters from the 39th Guards Brigade and the 57th Regiment of the 20th Division of the 8th Army liberated Yelizavetovka . Under the cover of armored vehicles, they managed to quickly break the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the village and reach its western outskirts. It later became known that the territory of the Lesnaya Dacha grove also came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces , the capture of which opens the way to Vesely Gai from the south.

https://rybar.ru/kurahovskoe-napravleni ... -kurahovo/

NATO resolution on continued support for the so-called Ukraine
November 26, 2024
Rybar

Ukrainian politicians have a new reason to rejoice: following a meeting in Montreal, the North Atlantic Alliance adopted a resolution on continuing support for the so-called Ukraine.

In addition to the standard points about “Russian aggression,” there is a point calling on Alliance members to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with all necessary means for “defense,” including medium-range missiles .

For some reason, Ukrainian politicians considered this the first sign of the transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles . Although the concept of " medium-range missiles" refers to different types of weapons.

For example, the existing Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles or the operational-tactical ATACMS are also medium-range weapons . The American JASSM and German Taurus, which are also being discussed, are the same.

And "Tomahawks" are long-range cruise missiles or long-range subsonic cruise missiles. This phrase was not in the resolution. It used a standard formulation, under the concept of which one can tie what the Ukrainian Armed Forces are already transmitting.

Moreover, the resolution is simply an appeal and recommendation to the members of the Alliance , which is adopted at each such meeting, and it does not oblige to anything. The decision on such things is made by the governments of the bloc's states, not NATO.

https://rybar.ru/rezolyucziya-nato-o-pr ... n-ukrainy/

Google Translator

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An ode to courage: New Russian film reveals the struggle of a young Donbass journalist

Lucas Leiroz

November 26, 2024

Faina Savenkova was added to the Ukrainian kill-list during her childhood, becoming a symbol of resistance for youth around the world.

In times of war, it is often the silenced voices that have the most powerful stories to tell. Victims of conflict, especially civilians, often find their experiences ignored or distorted by the prevailing narratives, both on the battlefield and in media coverage. Yet there are those who refuse to be silenced and who, despite the dire circumstances, do their utmost to tell the truth. Faina Savenkova is a shining example of this kind of resilience. Young, courageous and tireless, she has been a voice amid the suffering and devastation in her homeland in Donbass.

Faina, as a child, became a symbol of resistance in the context of the conflict in Donbass – more specifically in the Lugansk region, where Faina was born and lives. From a very young age, she was forced to grow up quickly, facing a cruel reality where her city was destroyed and her life completely transformed by the war. However, what really sets her apart is her courage to speak out, to oppose the injustices she witnessed and to share the pain of her people with the world, defying those who try to silence her voice.

The film Don’t Be Silent, directed by Klim Poplavsky, captures Faina’s story in a visceral and intimate way, bringing to light the strength of a young girl who, even in the face of fear and constant threat, did not hesitate to become one of the main defenders of the truth about what was happening in Donbass. Her decision not to remain silent and not to surrender in the face of the tragedy that surrounded her is a testament to resilience and humanity. She refuses to be just a victim; she becomes a warrior, not with weapons, but with her words and her courage in denouncing the brutality with which the Kiev regime treats the inhabitants of the region over which it claims “sovereignty”.

Young Faina has distinguished herself through her determination to use social media as a platform to denounce the atrocities committed by the Ukrainian military. In a scenario where the Kiev regime and Western media outlets often try to shape the narrative to ignore the voices of those suffering, Faina has emerged as a crucial figure in the Donbass resistance. Through her firm stance and courageous statements, she has become one of the leading advocates for civilian rights in the conflict, seeking to expose the reality of a war that, for many around the world, seemed distant and incomprehensible – until it became the focal point of global geopolitics following Russia’s intervention in 2022.

As a child, traumatized by Kiev’s shelling of her neighborhood, Faina began posting letters on social media trying to draw the world’s attention to the reality of Donbass. As a result of her work, the neo-Nazi junta added her to the infamous “Myrotvorets” website – the Ukrainian government’s public kill-list. At just 12 years old, Faina became one of the hundreds of children that Kiev publicly classify as “legitimate targets,” having even suffered real assassination attempts with targeted artillery strikes on her school.

Faina’s bravery is not limited to what she says, but to what she represents. She is not just a teenager living through the pain of war; she is a young girl who, with her sincerity and courage, challenges the world to see the truth. She has shown that it is possible, even in the most adverse circumstances, to be a voice of resistance, fighting for the dignity of one’s land and people. Faina’s youth, far from being a limitation, is in fact the source of her strength. In a world where youth is often seen as vulnerable or fragile, Faina is proof that courage can flourish where it is least expected.

The film is a tribute to this indomitable courage. Throughout its narrative, Poplavsky’s documentary expresses the importance of resisting the silence imposed by oppression and violence. By sharing her story with the world, Faina not only denounces the injustices her people suffer, but also stands as a symbol of a resistance that, although young, is powerful and essential to the struggle for justice, both in Donbass and in any other region of the world. Through her voice, the film draws attention to a war that is distorted by major Western powers, reminding the audience that there is a human reality behind the numbers and statistics.

Faina Savenkova has become an inspiration to many, not only in Lugansk, Donbass and Russia, but throughout the world. Her story reminds us that true resilience is measured not only by military or political strength, but by the courage of those who refuse to be silenced in the face of adversity. Her struggle for justice, for the memory of her land and for the future of her people is an example of heroism that transcends age and circumstances. In a world where the voices of war victims are often silenced, Faina stands as an icon of hope and dignity.

In the end, Don’t Be Silent is much more than a tale of war; it is an ode to courage, resistance, and the power of truth. Through Faina’s story, we see that even in the darkest times, there will always be those willing to speak out and fight for a fairer world. Faina Savenkova’s bravery is a reminder that in times of war, true resistance begins with the courage to not remain silent.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... ournalist/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Nov 28, 2024 12:26 pm

Defense, attack and the shadow of Istanbul
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/28/2024

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“Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine at the fastest pace since the early days of the 2022 invasion, taking an area half the size of London in the past month, analysts and war bloggers said on Tuesday,” Reuters admitted on Wednesday . The reality of the Donbass front cannot be obscured by talk of recapturing territory through diplomacy, peace through strength or the constant mention of the damage that Western missiles and homegrown drones are doing to the Russian rear and which are evidently not achieving their main objective, preventing Russian troops from advancing in the ground war. “Russia has set new weekly and monthly records for the size of territory occupied in Ukraine,” the independent Russian news group Agentstvo said in a report. The Russian military captured almost 235 square kilometers in Ukraine over the past week, a weekly record for 2024, it said. Russian forces had seized 600 square kilometers by November, it added, citing data from DeepState, which studies combat imagery and provides maps of the front line,” the Western news agency’s war report added, without specifying that these advances had occurred in the most fortified part of the front, the separation line inherited from the Donbass war and prepared for defense throughout the eight years of that war.

The advances on the front, the ability of its economy to withstand the economic war and the growing military pressure to which it is being subjected by the tactics of progressive Western escalation make it not the most propitious moment to bring Russia closer to a negotiation. "Judging by what is happening 'on the battlefield', we are still very far from a political and diplomatic solution to the crisis," said Sergey Lavrov yesterday, showing confidence that the Russian Federation will be able to achieve its objectives and reproaching the West for not having listened to Moscow in its approach to the last red lines and the risk of response. On Tuesday, Reuters confirmed what Vladimir Putin had already communicated in his speech to the nation: the hypersonic missile fired last week against Yuzhmash in Dnipropetrovsk in response to the beginning of the bombings with Western missiles in Russian territory had been carried out without explosive charge. In other words, the explosions, caused by the mere impact of a large mass at high speed, were not intended to cause destruction - Russia is aware that the Soviet factory was built to withstand a war - but were a message, a warning containing the threat that, next time, the missile could be loaded. Russia also has the means to carry out a progressive escalation.

Faced with the difficulties, the United States is trying to make the most of the time and resources at its disposal. It is already known that the White House has forgiven part of Ukraine's debt and that it will use the approximately $7 billion that remains from the funds approved by Congress last spring. Given Ukraine's strategy of betting much of its fortune on the effectiveness of its missiles, it is to be expected that ATACMS will have a special prevalence - although perhaps limited by stock issues - in these packages. In recent days and in the face of evident Ukrainian nervousness, Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden's National Security Advisor and one of the most important figures in White House foreign policy these past four years, has insisted that Ukraine's problem is not one of weapons, but of personnel. "Have we seen a noticeable difference since we supplied tanks to Ukraine as far as the battlefield is concerned? Likewise, as far as the F-16s are concerned, have we seen a noticeable difference? “Our view is that there is no single weapon system that is making the difference in this battle. It’s all about manpower, and in our view Ukraine needs to do more to shore up its lines in terms of the number of forces it has on the front,” he said in an appearance on NPR . This view is supported by comments from commanders on the Donbass front, who have increasingly complained to the press about the lack of replacements, the advanced age of conscripts and medical problems they suffer from. According to The Economist , which cites UAlosses as putting the number of identified fallen Ukrainian soldiers at 60,455 (the much more comprehensive Russian equivalent, Mediazona , puts identified Russian casualties at 79,819), “the figures suggest that more than 0.5% of Ukraine’s pre-war combat-age population (18-49 years) has died.”

Contradicting Sullivan’s claim that a new mobilization or a lowering of the draft age is needed, Joe Biden and his administration also see a shortage of weapons. According to Politico , a media outlet with good connections in the Democratic Party, this week the White House intends to make an attempt to get Congress to approve a new military aid package for Ukraine before the end of the current legislative session. “President Joe Biden is quietly asking lawmakers for another $24 billion to help Ukraine and replace American weapons that have been sent to fight Russia before he leaves office,” says the American media, which has had access to the relevant documents. Joe Biden is unlikely to be able to secure the necessary legislative support given the current situation, which is more complicated than last spring, when it took him months of negotiations to achieve his goal, but even if he were to do so, only a third of that amount would be destined for arms for Kiev, while the remaining 66% would seek to replenish American stocks.

Despite the personnel problems, the constant demand for weapons and the notable difficulties that Ukraine is having in defending its positions in areas well prepared for it, kyiv is not satisfied. In August, when the situation in Donbass was already becoming complicated for Ukraine, Zelensky's team decided to send some of its best units to the Kursk adventure, which has not yet yielded strategic results and where Russia is gradually regaining ground. And now that the difficulties have increased enough for Joe Biden to send, in a tone of some desperation, anti-personnel mines to try to slow down Russian progress in hand-to-hand combat, the Ukrainian press anticipates a new counteroffensive. “Stopping the enemy is essential,” declared Syrsky, who added that victory is impossible if the Ukrainian Armed Forces only play defense. We have to take the initiative and counterattack. We must do it and we will do it. Where and when: stay tuned.” In order to justify a stronger position than he actually is, the commander-in-chief invents a critical situation in the Pokrovsk region that has already been resolved. In reality, Russia, which is advancing slightly towards the town, has not started the approach and flanking operation with which it intends to force Ukrainian troops to withdraw from this strategic position in the future. Beyond the questionable possibilities of a Ukrainian offensive, kyiv needs to maintain tension and insist on its ability to strike. After all, its ambitions have not diminished. As Andriy Ermak has stated in statements to the German press, Ukraine would be ready to start peace negotiations when “all the forces in conflict show that they are ready to cease fire” and the situation has returned “to the state of February 23, 2022” – an offer that Ukraine rejected in June 2022, when it was still on the table.

The contradictions in the discourse are so marked that Ukraine boasts of its Western missiles, exaggerates Russian casualties to the point of exhaustion, announces for the umpteenth time that wear and tear is taking its toll on Moscow, describes the North Korean presence as weakness and suggests that there will soon be new offensives at the same time that it begins to understand that, perhaps, the Russian offer from Istanbul was not a bad starting point.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/11/28/31041/

Google Translator

*****

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
⚡️ Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of November 28, 2024)

— Units of the North group of forces in the Kharkov direction defeated the formations of the 92nd airborne assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 5th border detachment of the Border Service of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Liptsy, Kazachya Lopan and Slatino in the Kharkov region. A counterattack by the enemy assault group was repelled.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 60 servicemen, two vehicles and three 122-mm howitzers D-30. An ammunition depot was destroyed.

— Units of the West group of forces took up new lines and positions. The manpower and equipment of the 14th, 116th, 63rd, 67th mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 119th territorial defense brigade and the 1st national guard brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Kucherovka, Dvurechnoye, Zagryzovo in the Kharkiv region, Kirovsk, Ivanovka and Seversk in the Donetsk People's Republic. Three counterattacks of assault groups were repelled.

The enemy lost up to 480 servicemen, two infantry fighting vehicles, three cars, a 155-mm FH-70 howitzer made in the UK, a 152-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Akatsiya" and a 105-mm gun M119 made in the USA. Two "Anklav-N" electronic warfare stations and three ammunition depots were destroyed.

- Units of the "Southern" group of forces improved the situation along the forward edge. The formations of the 33rd Mechanized, 79th Airborne Assault and 46th Airmobile Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Kurakhovo and Dachnoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy's losses amounted to 330 servicemen, an armored combat vehicle and two cars. Two ammunition depots were destroyed.

— As a result of active operations, units of the Center group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of the 100th Mechanized, 59th Motorized Infantry, 142nd Infantry Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 35th, 38th Marine Brigades, the 14th National Guard Brigade, as well as the Lyut Assault Brigade of the National Police of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Dzerzhinsk, Dimitrov, Grodovka, Krasnoye, Petrovka, Nikolaevka, Novoekonomicheskoe and Lysovka of the Donetsk People's Republic. Six counterattacks of the assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled.

The enemy lost up to 415 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, five cars, a 152-mm howitzer "Msta-B", three 122-mm howitzers D-30, a 105-mm gun M119 made in the USA and a 100-mm gun "Rapira".

- Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance into the depths of the enemy's defense. The formations of the 23rd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 120th territorial defense brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Razliv and Novosyolka of the Donetsk People's Republic. A counterattack of the assault group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was repelled.

The enemy's losses amounted to 145 servicemen, four vehicles, two 155-mm M198 howitzers made in the USA, a 152-mm D-20 gun and a Bukovel-AD electronic warfare station.

— Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 110th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 118th territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Novoyakovlevka and Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporizhia region.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Swell of 'WWIII' Red Herrings Aims to Drown Out Mounting Russian Success

Simplicius
Nov 27, 2024

An outrageous deluge of exaggerated WWIII propaganda has hit the networks. Every pundit is tearing their hair out at a slew of canard-riddled reports, taken entirely out of context, deliberately misinterpreted, or pumped up in phony headlines for people who don’t read the actual article contents.

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Let’s debunk the three major ones in series:

“Zelensky To Be Given Nukes!”

This comes from a desperate NYT article which quotes the following:

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This is either some insider troll-job or just outright amateurishness on behalf of the creative writer. How can Biden return Russian nukes to Ukraine? It doesn’t even make sense and is the most absurd of the current panic-inducing psyops.

Anyway, the fatuous dreck above is worded cleverly to try to make it sound like Biden has already discussed or considered this. Nothing of the sort: the “anonymous official” is merely suggesting it on his own behalf, and trying to pass it off as Biden’s idea. This is merely crude amateur fantasy on behalf of the writer or some no name desk jockey to be dismissed as the leaky refuse it is.

But how did it get so amplified? Simple: when it was rehashed in the infamous “telephone game” in other places, the wording was slightly changed to increasingly reflect that it was the administration itself already deep in talks with providing nukes to Ukraine. Case in point, this ZeroHedge version refers to the same article as above but gives it a far more definitive edge:

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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ns-ukraine

“US and European officials have discussed…including providing Kiev with nuclear weapons”—and it links to the very NYT article from above. Yet no where in that article is this “discussed”, rather juvenilely proposed by an “anonymous” writer’s self-insert.

French and UK Troops to Ukraine!

This canard is equally specious. It stems from the very provocatively titled Le Monde article:

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https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international ... 041_4.html

The problem is, it’s a total nothingburger. The entire hoopla stems from this one tossed-off answer to a question, from the article:

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So, some French Foreign Minister is first asked about the possibility of sending troops and he merely suggests from his own opinion that “no red lines should be set”. That’s it. Just another vague suggestion or some nobody’s unasked for insertion.

In fact, later in the article they attempt to curb expectations by then implying that any such troops would be for a peace keeping force after cessation of hostilities. That’s because Biden signaled to dump the conflict on Europe, and Trump seeks to implement a ceasefire along the contact line—so the thought goes that European troops may have to be sent as a kind of KFOR force.

French and British reflections on this issue echo the scant public information that has filtered through about Trump's intentions regarding Ukraine, beyond his declared desire to settle the war "in 24 hours". On November 6, the Wall Street Journal reported the anonymous words of three members of the president-elect's team. They described a plan whereby, after a ceasefire, the front line could be sealed off with a demilitarized zone, with the support of a peacekeeping force.

Again: totally misleading hogwash to build a psyop mountain-out-of-molehill.

Oops:

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It immediately caused “worst ever” power outages according to the city’s mayor: (Video at link.)

But where the story takes a tragicomic turn is the UK’s Sunday Times writer explaining how British engineers were meant to construct protective bunkers for Ukraine’s substations, only to result in not a single one being built:

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Full article here for those interested:

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https://archive.ph/x6DnL

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/swe ... rings-aims

******

Paul Robinson: What is the West’s end-goal in Ukraine?
November 25, 2024
By Paul Robinson, Canadian Dimension, 11/22/24

Back in 1997, when Canada still had a more or less independent foreign policy, the Canadian government celebrated the signing of the Ottawa Treaty banning the use of anti-personnel landmines. At the time, it was heralded as an extraordinary achievement of Canadian diplomacy, and was a source of great national pride. One might imagine, therefore, that Canadians today would be concerned with potential breaches of a treaty that was once considered the crown jewel of our country’s foreign policy. But it appears not.

This week, the Biden administration announced that it would give anti-personnel landmines to Ukraine. Ukraine, unlike the United States (and also Russia), is a signatory to the Ottawa Treaty, and thus would be in serious breach of its international obligations were it ever to use the weapons provided.

This is something that should surely be of concern to the Canadian media and the Trudeau government. Yet although the news was the leading headline in much of the international press, topping, for instance, the BBC website, it has scarcely been noticed here. Google searches indicate no article on the topic published by the CBC, and no statements on the matter by Canadian ministers or officials. It would appear that what was once our pride and joy no longer interests anybody.

The decision to give landmines was not the only escalation of the war in Ukraine to be announced this week by the US. Another was the granting of permission to Ukraine to use American (and also British) long-range missiles against targets inside Russia. Almost immediately, Ukraine carried out a couple of strikes with American supplied ATACMS missiles and British-supplied Storm Shadows on targets in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk provinces.

In response, Russia has now fired what President Vladimir Putin said was an experimental hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile with multiple warheads at a Ukrainian industrial facility in the city of Dnipro. Such missiles travel so fast—three kilomtres per second—that it is almost impossible to intercept them. They can also carry nuclear warheads, and their use can be seen therefore as a warning to the West and Ukraine not to escalate further.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Twee ... idth=550px

All this raises questions about the West’s policy of incremental escalation in Ukraine, specifically what goals it is meant to achieve, whether those goals are actually achievable, and whether the cost of pursuing those goals may be so high as to render them unwise. At present, it is very hard to discern what the goals are. Defeating Russia militarily is now considered almost impossible by all but the most hardline pro-Ukrainians. Instead, it appears that the US and its Western allies are trying merely to slow down the rate of Russian advances and to increase the costs of the war to Russia in the hope that somehow or other this will compel the Russian government to moderate its demands against Ukraine and accept a compromise peace.

What that compromise peace would consist of, and exactly how one would go about negotiating it, remains, however, a mystery. Furthermore, it’s not obvious that the policy of incremental escalation will even induce a more compromising mindset in Russia’s rulers rather than further strengthen their conviction that the war must be pursued until the point of final victory (whatever that means). In short, continued escalation along the lines of this past week may merely increase the risks involved in the war while not serving any useful role in ending it.

Had Kamala Harris won the US presidential election earlier this month, it is likely that this policy would have continued under her leadership. The return of Donald Trump to the White House in January offers instead at least a glimmer of hope that America may change its policy from one of repeated but rather aimless escalation to one of de-escalation or even war termination.

Trump himself is known to be keen to see the war come to an end and to be less sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause than Joe Biden. Much, though, depends on those around the president-elect. In his first term in office, Trump surrounded himself with officials who did their best to undermine some of his foreign policy initiatives. For instance, Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria led to the resignation of some officials and to others deliberately misleading the president about the number of troops remaining in that country.

It remains to be seen if this scenario will repeat itself with regards to Ukraine, but the signs so far suggest that Trump 2.0 team will be rather more in line with its leader than was the case between 2016 and 2020. Incoming officials such as Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth can be viewed as foreign policy hawks, but their hawkishness is largely directed at China and Iran, not at Russia. On November 6, for instance, Rubio said that: “I think the Ukrainians have been incredibly brave and strong in standing up to Russia. But at the end of the day, what we are funding here is a stalemate war, and it needs to be brought to a conclusion, or that country is going to be set back 100 years.”

It is likely, therefore, that the Trump administration will seek to start negotiations to end the war. Trump and his team also seem willing to countenance a settlement that leaves a substantial portion of Ukrainian territory in Ukrainian hands and thus falls far short of a Ukrainian victory. What is not clear, though, is whether they are willing to offer Russia something that it will accept (which goes beyond territory and includes Ukrainian neutrality), and whether they are willing to twist the arm of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to force him to agree to whatever is being proposed, by for instance threatening to withdraw all aid if he refuses.

On the one hand, Trump strikes one as the kind of person who in principle might be quite willing to pursue the latter course of action. On the other hand, stories emerging from the US about what those around him might propose as a peace plan suggests that they do not fully grasp what is necessary to bring Russia onside. There have, for instance, been reports that people close to Trump are proposing a 20-year freeze on NATO membership for Ukraine. But this falls far short of what Russia is demanding, and is unlikely to be accepted.

It could be, therefore, that the Trump presidency will begin with a push for peace that will soon fail, after which everything will revert to what it was before. That said, if the Democratic Party had retained power, it’s improbable that we would be talking about a push for peace at all. Some chance is better than none, and for that at least we should be grateful.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/11/pau ... n-ukraine/

Anatol Lieven: UK dutifully follows Biden into Ukraine doom spiral
November 26, 2024
By Anatol Lieven, Responsible Statecraft, 11/21/24

The UK has apparently given the greenlight for Kyiv to use its Storm Shadow missiles for attacking inside Russia. While the British government has not commented publicly, the Ukrainian military used the missiles to strike Russia for the first time on Wednesday.

In keeping with most British military “decisions,” its actions Wednesday followed the Biden Administration’s approval to allow Ukraine to use its own long-range ATACMS in the same way.

The British government seems to have forgotten that two months from now, the Biden administration will no longer be in office and the Trump White House may not take kindly to what some of its future members see as British support for a preemptive Biden attempt to wreck Trump’s peace agenda in Ukraine.

From the point of view of Britain’s own security interests (which do not appear to play any part in British establishment thinking about Ukraine), British citizens just have to hope that after January the Russian government does not retaliate against the UK — for if it does, they may not receive much sympathy from Washington.

The official argument for the ATACMS and Storms Shadows decision is to put Ukraine in a stronger position before peace talks are initiated by Trump. Russia seems certain to try to gain as much territory as possible before these talks begin, and the Ukrainian armed forces are in serious danger of collapse.

This is a dangerous gamble, because the missiles (which are guided to their targets by U.S. personnel) risk infuriating Russia without giving really critical help to Ukraine. It is especially dangerous for the UK, because if Putin feels impelled to live up to its promises to retaliate without attacking U.S. interests and alienating Trump, he could well feel that the UK makes a safertarget — it is at least a gamble based on rational calculations.

This is not exactly what the government and the British security establishment have beensaying. Like some East European governments, and influential political voices in Western Europe, the British government is still talking of helping Ukraine “win” — not to achieve a better compromise.

Like the Biden administration, British and NATO language of the “irreversibility” of Ukrainian NATO membership, and the necessity of Russia leaving the Ukrainian territory it has occupied suggest opposition to any conceivable peace settlement that Trump could seek to achieve. If the UK is seen by Trump to be deliberately sabotaging his peace agenda, this will be hugely damaging to the American-British relationship, and put Britain in an extremely exposed position.

Such an interpretation by Trump is likely to be encouraged by the talk in Washington, London and European capitals about “Trump-proofing” aid to Ukraine, and suggestions by European analysts that Europe both should and can support Ukraine in continuing to fight even if the Trump administration withdraws U.S. support.

At ameeting in Warsaw this week, European foreign ministers pledged (without giving any details) to increase aid to Ukraine. Furthermore – in words, which if meant seriously, would make peace impossible —declared:

“(that we) remain steadfast in our support for a just and lasting peace for Ukraine, based on the UN Charter, reaffirming that peace can only be negotiated with Ukraine, with European, American and G7 partners by its side, and in making sure that the aggressor will bear consequences, also financial ones, of its illegal acts that violate rules set out in the UN Charter.”

This is lunacy. It is not even likely that Europe will be able to sustain present levels of economic aid to Ukraine for long. Budgets all over Europe are under intense strain, leading to bitter politicalstruggles. The German coalition government has just collapsed due to a fight between its constituent parties over how to pay simultaneously for support to Ukraine, German re-armament, German industrial regeneration and social welfare.

Berlin had already announced radical cuts to its bilateral aid to Ukraine. For the European Union to take up the full burden of existing European aid — let alone replace that of the U.S. — would almost certainly require acceptance of EU control over collective European debt, through a huge issue of “Defense Eurobonds.”

This would, however, likely be opposed by dominant elements in the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which seems certain to be the dominant partner in a new coalition after elections now due in February. Their opposition stems not only from their own convictions, but also from the fear that ceding German economic sovereignty in this way would deeply anger many Germans and give a strong boost to support for populist opposition parties of the Right and Left.

As to Europe replacing the U.S. in terms of military support for Ukraine, this looks absurd. In critical areas like air defense systems, European military industries are not remotely capable even of providing for their own countries’ defense, let alone of providing what Ukraine needs.

Earlier this year, European governments rebuffed Ukraine’s appeal for more air defense weapons. These shortages extend across the board. Almost unbelievably, the British government’s decision on Storm Shadows occurred simultaneously with an announcement of further deep cuts to the UK armed forces, including its last amphibious assault ships and a large proportion of its transport helicopters.

Europe can of course buy from the U.S. — but only if Washington is capable of supplying systems for Ukraine and for Israel and adequately supplying America’s own forces for possible war with China. Is it likely that a Trump administration angered by Ukrainian and European rejection of a peace deal would prioritize weapons for Ukraine, even if the Europeans were paying for them?

The utterly confused state of British and European thinking about the military realities of the Ukraine conflict and Europe’s role is in large part due to the pitiful ignorance of military matters on the part of politicians — and therefore governments — who with the rarest of exceptions have never served in the military themselves, or bothered to study military issues, or devoted serious study to any foreign country.

This makes them completely dependent on advice from their foreign and security establishments; and for decades now, these establishments have outsourced to Washington not just responsibility for their national security, but thinking about it.

If you ask most members of European think tanks to define the specifically British, or French, or Danish interests in the Ukraine War, they are not merely incapable of answering, they clearly regard the very question as somehow illegitimate and disloyal to the U.S.-mandated “rules-based order.”

But the America to which these Europeans are loyal is the old U.S. foreign and security establishment — not the America of Trump, which they do not understand and deeply hate and fear (just as they do their own populist oppositions). Indeed, until a very few months ago the great majority of European politicians and experts simply refused to believe that Trump could possibly win the elections.

Many have now lost their heads entirely, and are just running around in circles. Others, like the Poles and Balts, have their heads firmly screwed on, but back to front.

As to the British government and security establishment, since the U.S. elections they have resembled their predecessor King Charles I, who according to legend went on talking for half an hour after his head had been cut off. Perhaps given time they can grow a new head of their very own. But in the meantime, for people in this embarrassing position, a period of silent inaction would seem to be the wise course to adopt.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/11/ana ... om-spiral/

*****

No More Cards To Play.

Washington, as I already stated, tries to be slightly pregnant or is doing heavy petting. That tells you a lot about cowards who infest D.C. but at this stage it doesn't matter. If good ol' boys want to play the (real) war--they got it. And they sense that they are no good. They never were, but don't tell this to Ted Postol, who doesn't know the difference between Kapustin Yar and Baikonur. Otherwise, the US would have produced outstanding military leaders and weapons, instead we all observe Petraeuses, Ben Hodgeses, Keanes and other Washington ass kissers and a lot of expensive military junk. Well, the response is coming and something tells me that there will be a concentrated effort on Russia's part to "remove" any NATO command and advisory element first in 404 and if the message (and bodies) are still not processed--many military targets in Europe are good to go. Washington has nothing left but strategic nukes and BS.



http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/11 ... -play.html

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How The New Russian Missiles Are Changing The Game

To describe a weapon system as a game changer on the battlefield is always open to be ridiculed. Many of the weapon systems that have been delivered to Ukraine were called game changing but failed to make any difference in the outcome of that war.

So why did I call the new Russian Oreshnik missile a 'game changer'?

There are several reasons.

For one the missile with its 36 kinetic war heads is an unexpected response to the U.S. abolition of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Force (INF) treaty. The U.S. had hoped that the stationing of nuclear missiles in Europe might give it an advantage over Russia. Oreshnik denies that advantage WITHOUT resorting to nuclear force.

Any U.S. attempt to pressure Russia into a situation where it would either have to concede to the U.S. or to go nuclear has been demolished.

This is most visible in Ukraine. Over the two plus years of the war the U.S. has used a 'boiling the frog' strategy against Russia. It increased the temperature by slowly increasing the reach and lethality of the weapons it has provided to Ukraine. In each such step, the delivery of tanks, of Himars, of ATAMACs, of allowing Ukraine to use these on Russian grounds, was declared to be a move across imaginary Russian red lines. Each such step was accompanied by propaganda which claimed that Russia was looking into a nuclear response.

The aim was to push Russia into a situation where it could either make concessions over Ukraine or use nuclear weapons. The U.S. was sure that Russia would refrain from the later because it would put Russia into the position of an international pariah. By going nuclear it would lose support from its allies in China and beyond. It would also risk an all out nuclear war.

The strategy would probably have worked if Russia had not found an asymmetric response against it. It now has non-nuclear weapons, (the Oreshnik will not be the only one), which allow it to apply the equivalent of nuclear strikes without the dirty side effects of actually going nuclear.

Russia's announcement that future Oreshnik deployments will come under the command of its Strategic Forces -which so far have only been nuclear. This is a clear sign that these new weapons are seen as having similar strategic effects.

The kinetic concept of the Oreshnik payload is not a new one. Mass times speed is the amount of destructive energy these can deliver. [Comment correction for my sloppy writing: Force equals one half the mass multiplied by velocity squared. F = 1/2 m * v^2] Being hypersonic and hitting the targets with a speed of Mach 10 allows even small penetrators without explosives to have very strong, explosive like effects.

In the early 1980s president Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative included several attempts to introduce kinetic weapons. 'Rods from God' (and later 'Brilliant Pebbles') were conceptualized as kinetic darts to be launched from satellites to hit Soviet ICBM missiles:

A system described in the 2003 United States Air Force report called Hypervelocity Rod Bundles was that of 20-foot-long (6.1 m), 1-foot-diameter (0.30 m) tungsten rods that are satellite-controlled and have global strike capability, with impact speeds of Mach 10.
The bomb would naturally contain large kinetic energy because it moves at orbital velocities, around 8 kilometres per second (26,000 ft/s; Mach 24) in orbit and 3 kilometres per second (9,800 ft/s; Mach 8.8) at impact. As the rod reenters Earth's atmosphere, it would lose most of its velocity, but the remaining energy would cause considerable damage. Some systems are quoted as having the yield of a small tactical nuclear bomb. These designs are envisioned as a bunker buster.


None came from it. The envisioned penetrators had to be too large and too heavy to be positioned in space. The huge 'telephone pole' size of the penetrators was need because these would burn up during the hypersonic flight through the atmosphere.

The penetrators Oreshnik is using are much smaller.

Russia seems to have solved some general physical problems of objects flying at hypersonic speed. In March 2018 Russia's president Vladimir Putin announced the introduction of several new weapons designed to penetrate U.S. missile defenses. One of these was the hypersonic glide vehicle now known as Avangard:

The use of new composite materials has made it possible to enable the gliding cruise bloc to make a long-distance guided flight practically in conditions of plasma formation. It flies to its target like a meteorite, like a ball of fire. The temperature on its surface reaches 1,600–2,000 degrees Celsius but the cruise bloc is reliably guided.
...
We are well aware that a number of other countries are developing advanced weapons with new physical properties. We have every reason to believe that we are one step ahead there as well – at any rate, in the most essential areas.


I have since been looking for what 'new physical properties' or principles Russian scientist might have discovered to solve the problems of guided hypersonic travel within a plasma envelope. Nothing has come up so far. But the fact that Oreshnik is using relative small guided projectiles at hypersonic speed makes it likely that the new physical properties or principles the Russians discovered have also been applied to this weapon.

Until those basic scientific discoveries become known in the west there will be no chance for it to make weapons that can match the characteristics of Oreshnik and Avanguard.

Oreshnik is, so far, a non nuclear weapon with a limited (5,000 kilometer) range. But there is nothing in principle that hinders Russia from equipping an ICBM missile with similar non-nuclear capabilities. It would make non-nuclear strikes by Russia on U.S. grounds, or more likely on U.S. foreign bases and aircraft carriers, possible.

But those facts, and their consequences, have yet to penetrate the minds of western decision makers.

Even after the Oreshnik strike happened the U.S. continued to pin prick Russia by guiding Ukraine to fire ATAMAC missiles against targets in Russia. Yesterday the Russian Ministry of Defense announced, uncharacteristically, that two such attacks had taken place:

On 23 November, the enemy fired five U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at a position of an S-400 anti-aircraft battalion near Lotarevka (37 kilometres north-west of Kursk).
During a surface-to-air battle, a Pantsir AAMG crew protecting the battalion destroyed three ATACMS missiles, and two hit their intended targets.
...
On 25 November, the Kiev regime delivered one more strike by eight ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at the Kursk-Vostochny airfield (near Khalino). Seven missile were shot down by S-400 SAM and Pantsir AAMG systems, one missile hit the assigned target.


Militarily these strikes are irrelevant. But they demonstrate that the U.S. is still trying to 'boil the frog' even after it has escaped from the vessel. Russia has, according to Putin, several Oreshnik and similar weapons ready to launch.

The potential target for such missiles are obvious:

MOSCOW, November 21. /TASS/. The US missile defense base in Poland has long been considered a priority target for potential neutralization by the Russian Armed Forces, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated during a briefing.
"Given the level of threats posed by such Western military facilities, the missile defense base in Poland has long been included among the priority targets for potential neutralization. If necessary, this can be achieved using a wide range of advanced weaponry," the diplomat said.


Russia has closed the airspace over the Kapustin Yar missile range until November 30. Kapustin Yar is the test range from which the Oreshnik had been fired.

As there is no defense possible against Oreshnik type weapons Russia could announce a strike on the U.S. controlled Redzikow base in Poland days or hours before it would take place. As the strike would be announced, conventional in type and would cause few if any casualties it seems unlikely that NATO would apply Article 5 to it and to hit back with force.

Such would become a moment where the boiling of the frog would start again but this time with the U.S. being the frog inside of the vessel. Russia, by hitting U.S. bases in Europe by conventional means, would increase the temperature day after day.

Would the U.S. dare to go nuclear over this or rather retreat from its plans to defeat Russia?

Posted by b on November 27, 2024 at 12:45 UTC | Permalink

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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