Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Thu Apr 17, 2025 3:16 pm

THE ANGELS OF DELIVERANCE – ARE TRUMP AND WITKOFF ROLLING THE STONE AWAY?

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

It’s Easter for Christians, and President Donald Trump’s message is a religious one.

He aims to be one of the angels of deliverance whom the gospels report to have showed themselves at the tomb of Jesus Christ after the crucifixion. Rolling the stone from the entrance to the tomb, and in place of his corpse, the appearance of the angels confirmed the resurrection.

“Through the pain and sacrifice of Jesus on the Cross,” Trump has tweeted, “we saw God’s boundless Love and Devotion to all Humanity and, in that moment of His Resurrection, History was forever changed with the Promise of Everlasting Life.” He went on: “America is a Nation of Believers. We need God, we want God and, with His help, we will make our Nation Stronger, Safer, Greater, more Prosperous, and more United than ever before.”

Trump had announced his own personal divine deliverance last July, when he was grazed in an assassination attempt. “It was God alone who prevented the unthinkable from happening. We will FEAR NOT, but instead remain resilient in our Faith and Defiant in the face of Wickedness.” He repeated his divine deliverance in his inaugural address of January 20: “I was saved by God to make America great again.” In Congress on March 4, Trump repeated the divine mission. “I believe I was saved by God to make American great again. I believe that.”

On Palm Sunday he added that he was “in prayer with Christians celebrating the crucifixion and resurrection of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ—the living Son of God who conquered death, freed us from sin, and unlocked the gates of Heaven for all of humanity.” The White House log identified Trump’s only event of the day was to play golf from mid-morning until mid-afternoon.

In this new podcast, Nima Alkhorshid leads the discussion of what Trump is expecting to be believed in the negotiations he is holding with Russia and with Iran; and of what he and his officials are actually doing.

Three main documents were referred to in the discussion.

The first is the published version of Trump’s medical examination last week. https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/d ... 7-full.pdf

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Source: https://static01.nyt.com

A specialist geriatrician who was consulted for a review of this report has commented that the 99% oxygenation level reported appears to be abnormally high; if accurate, the number may reflect prior stimulation in a hyperbaric chamber. The source also expresses scepticism that at Trump’s height (191cm), body weight (102kg) and body mass index (28, overweight range), the reported blood pressure score of 128 over 74 is too low unless he is taking undisclosed hypertension medication. The source adds that the neurological test reported of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment is inappropriate. This is used to measure dementia presentations in patients with Parkinson’s Disease or suspected Alzheimer’s Disease. It is not a measure of cognitive function. For that, tests of oral and written language use, conceptual complexity, and memory are appropriate. The evidence of these shows abnormally low cognitive function for Trump: click here and here.

For the Russian reaction to Trump’s statements and the negotiations he has directed Steven Witkoff and other officials to hold in Riyadh, Istanbul, Washington, and most recently in Moscow, here are excerpts of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s interview with Kommersant, published on April 14.

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Source: https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2009093/?lang=en

“Question: There were several rounds of talks with the United States since the new administration came to power there. What would be your assessment of how these contacts panned out? Have they resulted in outlining the key parameters for the future comprehensive agreement on Ukraine? On which of its elements have Washington and Moscow already reached common ground?

Sergey Lavrov: Let me answer your last question right away. The answer is no. Agreeing on the key aspects of the settlement is easy. We are discussing them…

Question: From what you have said, it sounds like Moscow still believes the US can be a negotiator in the Ukraine conflict. There have already been two US-mediated agreements: one on safe navigation in the Black Sea and another on a moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure. But neither seems to be fully functioning. What’s your take on that?

Sergey Lavrov: There are no such agreements.”

In the interview, Lavrov downplayed the role of Kirill Dmitriev, whom he referred to, not by his new presidential emissary title, but by his older job function. “The economy and trade constitute the third track. Americans mentioned it at the first stage when President of the United States Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin had their first telephone conversation, as well as when Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff came here, and when Kirill Dmitriev, who heads the Russian Direct Investment Fund, was in the United States. They are businesspeople. Generating tangible returns is something that matters for them, and Donald Trump has made no secret out of it. This is his mindset and his policy. This is what the people of America voted for. It is obvious that they seek to generate benefits.”

https://johnhelmer.net/the-angels-of-de ... more-91397

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Trump Targets Migrants amid Human Trafficking Allegations
Posted by Internationalist 360° on April 16, 2025
Francisco Dominguez and Roger D. Harris

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Trump is also trying to terminate the Humanitarian Parole program for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans (CHNV)

Donald Trump has launched an aggressive campaign that targets Latino migrants – particularly Venezuelans – as scapegoats in a broader geopolitical agenda. Bolstered through a controversial alliance with the Salvadoran president, Trump has overseen mass deportations, detentions in Guantánamo Bay and El Salvador’s notorious CECOT prison, and invoked 18th-century war powers to justify these actions.

Trump’s brutal attacks on the working class have been supplemented by the systematic demonization of immigrants – many of whom are themselves working class. During his electoral campaign, Trump not only promised large-scale deportations but, pandering to a far-right base, vilified migrants to unprecedented degrees.

In his 2015 campaign, Trump vowed to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. And upon returning to the presidency in 2025, Trump again promised to round up millions in what he boasted would be the largest deportation operation in US history.

However, as the record shows, immigrant deportations are, unfortunately, a bipartisan project. Contrary to Trump’s grandiose rhetoric, once in office for his first term, he deported less than one million rather than the 11 million he claimed would be expelled. That was less than the 1.6 million evicted by his Democratic predecessor Barack Obama in a his first 4 years in office. While Democrat Joe Biden still holds the record for the most deportations in a year, Trump is determined to beat it.

To this end, Trump and his ultra-conservative Project 2025 confederates would like to end birthright citizenship, which would disproportionately affect nearly 65 million Latinos in the US. Arbitrary arrests, deportations, and the revocation of documentation – even for legal residents – are escalating daily, with Latino immigrants being the primary target in operations rife with racial profiling.

Trump is also trying to terminate the Humanitarian Parole program for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans (CHNV), although the revocation has been halted pending legal proceedings.​ Ironically, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, once a vocal advocate for Cuban immigrants, now spearheads policies stripping them of legal protection.

Trump’s Fictional Gang Scare

Trump’s demonization of migrants affords him a patina of populism by falsely posing as a supporter of US workers erroneously threatened by aliens. Of course, Elon Musk’s buddy is no friend of the working class.

There is another more deeply political underpinning to Trump’s campaign related to Venezuela. Trump has falsely accused some Venezuelan migrants of being members of the Tren de Aragua gang on the flimsiest of reasons such as a tattoo in support of a football club. Thus immigrants, especially from Venezuela, are conflated with criminality. In fact, studies show US immigrants do not commit crime at a higher rate than the native-born.

In a highly redacted document, the US designatedTren de Aragua to be a “transnational criminal organization” (TCO) in December 2024. This came after the Venezuelan government largely dismantled the gang in September 2023 at Tocorón Penitentiary, demonstrating the government’s antagonistic relationship to the gang. But its existence was being politically weaponized by the US.

On his first day in office, Trump initiated the process of designating the gang as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), legally making it a crime to provide it material support. In so doing, a circle of conflation was being constructed from migrant, to criminal, to gang member, and then the big leap to terrorist.

The final link in the circle of conflation was Trump’s invocation on March 15 of the Alien Enemies Act accusing the Venezuelan government of an “invasion” of the US by the Tren de Aragua.

A media campaign – spearheaded by Trump in concert with far-right Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and US senators like Ted Cruz– has propagated the myth of a Venezuelan government-backed Tren de Aragua cartel flooding the US with criminals. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has described this as “the biggest lie ever told about our country.” To wit, El Pais verified the gang is “without the capacity to be a national security problem” the US. The New York Times demonstrated that the Tren de Aragua is “not invading America.” And Trump’s own US Intelligence Community assessment concluded that the gang was not acting on the Venezuelan government’s orders.

Alien Enemies Act

Trump’s invocation of the Alien and Enemies Act serves dual purposes. It is a legal pretext to justify mass expulsions. At the same time, it is a salvo in Washington’s renewed “maximum pressure” regime-change campaign against Caracas.

The application of the Alien Enemies Act for deporting individuals based on alleged gang affiliations is unprecedented and has raised legal and ethical concerns. While being adjudicated in the courts, the archaic 1789 war-time legislation is being used to target Venezuelans and Nicaraguans, even though the US is not at war with these countries…at least not officially. Nevertheless, some have been sent to detention facilities like the notorious internment camp in Guantánamo Bay.

The administration’s lack of transparency regarding deportation criteria has been staggering, as has its blatant disregard for due process. Many deportees were detained without evidence, arrest warrants, or probable cause – let alone justification for imprisonment.

The degrading treatment of detainees in Guantánamo has drawn wide condemnation as has the administration’s obsessive drive to deport Latinos – whether undocumented, temporary, or permanent.

Migrants Vanish into Trump’s Offshore Prison

Trump is also shipping Venezuelan migrants and lesser numbers of Salvadorians to El Salvador’s CECOT prison, a so-called “Terrorism Confinement Centre,” where conditions are subhuman. No visitation, recreation, or education are allowed at the extremely overcrowded facility. Lack of medical care and abuse are rampart, with reports of over 300 deaths in custody, some showing clear signs of violence.

The Trump administration struck a deal with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, paying $6 million to detain 238 Venezuelans branded “foreign terrorists.”

Meanwhile, Bukele boasted about the financial benefits of the arrangement. His Ocio Cero (zero leisure) prison labour program will, he said, contribute to the economic self-sustainability of the prison system, which critics say is tantamount to human trafficking.

Trump and Bukele both falsely claim to have no power to bring back a mistakenly deported Salvadoran legal immigrant. Kilmar Armando Abrego García is now held at CECOT, even though a US judge ordered his return and despite the US Supreme Court’s ruling to do so. Instead, Trump and Bukele declared their intention to expand the scheme. Trump floated deporting even US citizens to CECOT, with Bukele responding: “Yeah, we’ve got space.”

BPR (Bloque de Resistencia y Rebeldía Popular), a Salvadoran human rights organization denounced the Trump-Bukele pact as “arbitrary and dehumanizing,” violating international law and making El Salvador complicit in Trump’s criminalizing immigration policies. They demanded the Supreme Court nullify the detentions, arguing they violate constitutional protections against foreign judicial overreach.

Venezuela’s government has also taken action. Attorney General Tarek Williams Saab petitioned El Salvador’s Supreme Court for habeas corpus relief for detained Venezuelans. President Maduro condemned the deportations as kidnappings and sought intervention from the U.N. by contacting Secretary General Antonio Guterres and the U.N. high commissioner for human rights.

President Maduro has vowed to fight for the repatriation of every wrongfully detained Venezuelan. This struggle must be joined by the international solidarity movement, demanding the immediate release of all unjustly imprisoned migrants.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/04/ ... legations/

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Trump’s Tariffs Just Torched His Own Energy Agenda
Posted on April 17, 2025 by Yves Smith

Yves here. We, like many others, have described how Trump’s economic policies are rife with contradictions. The impact of tariffs on his prized LNG ambitions are a prime example.

By Tsvetana Paraskova, a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. Originally published at OilPrice

President Trump’s tariff-driven price slump threatens America’s hard-won petroleum export surplus.
Ongoing tariff uncertainty and volatile oil prices make budgeting and drilling decisions difficult.
With a cash-flow breakeven around $62.50–$65/barrel, U.S. producers fear lower prices will stall new well drilling and long-term growth.
The Trump Administration insists that U.S. shale will survive lower oil prices and could work well and innovate further at current price levels of WTI crude prices of about $60 per barrel, and even lower.

The industry is not convinced.

While public statements from the oil lobby and oil producers welcome President Donald Trump’s rollback of regulations and eased permitting processes, executives are privately fuming about the administration’s perceived target to bring oil prices down to $50 a barrel.

Separately, the trade and tariff chaos in markets – triggered by President Trump’s tariffs, tariff pauses, and tariff exemptions – is depressing oil prices as analysts now believe a recession followed by lower energy demand is more likely to happen than not.

U.S. Petroleum Trade Surplus Undermined

With oil prices down by more than 15% from last year’s levels, American oil exports could fetch lower prices for export. This will dent the absolute value of the U.S. petroleum trade surplus, which America began to show with the surge in oil production in the shale revolution era.

Before the shale boom in the 2010s, the U.S. was running a deficit in petroleum trade as it was importing more crude and petroleum products than it exported.

The shale revolution flipped the trade position to a surplus for America, and the U.S. has been a net petroleum exporter every year since 2020.

President Trump’s tariff policies – which tanked oil prices and raised the odds of a recession – are undermining America’s petroleum trade surplus. That’s not a desirable outcome for an administration fixated on fixing trade deficits. Petroleum and energy trade, in fact, is one of the few sectors in which the U.S. has a large trade surplus in the dozens of billions of U.S. dollars annually.

Even if the EU, Japan, and South Korea pledge to buy and indeed buy more U.S. LNG and oil, part of the gains could be offset by weak prices and lower demand for energy in case all the tariff uncertainty brings about a global downturn or recession.

Weaker global demand for oil and gas would not support increases in U.S. oil production and doesn’t bode well for the future LNG export projects which need firm commitments to take the plans to final investment decisions.

“You claim that the energy industry is the darling of your economic plan, and you just made life very difficult,” Robert Yawger, director of the futures division at investment bank Mizuho Americas, told The Wall Street Journal.

U.S. Shale Growth At Risk

Then there is the issue of how the U.S. could sustain production to remain the energy export superpower it has been over the past few years.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, the former boss at fracking firm Liberty Energy, remains bullish on U.S. oil production—and believes that the industry will not only survive but thrive even with oil at $60 or below.

Yet, the industry begs to differ—at least that’s what executives wrote anonymously in March in comments to the quarterly Dallas Fed Energy Survey for the first quarter.

“There cannot be “U.S. energy dominance” and $50 per barrel oil; those two statements are contradictory. At $50-per-barrel oil, we will see U.S. oil production start to decline immediately and likely significantly (1 million barrels per day plus within a couple quarters),” an executive at an exploration and production firm said.

“The U.S. oil cost curve is in a different place than it was five years ago; $70 per barrel is the new $50 per barrel,” the executive noted.

Another executive put it even more bluntly, “The administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets. “Drill, baby, drill” is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal. We want more stability.”

Stability is the furthest from where the oil market has been in the past two weeks. Stability may be OPEC’s buzzword for ‘relatively high oil prices,’ but it is also crucial for the capital investment and drilling decisions in the U.S. shale patch.

Without any certainty about the cost of drilling wells – including the price of steel – producers face difficulty budgeting and maintaining shareholder payouts at current levels.

Drilling and ‘all-in’ corporate costs, including overhead, dividend, and servicing debt, amounts to a cash flow WTI breakeven of $62.50 per barrel for new activity in 2025, according to estimates by Rystad Energy.

Executives at U.S. firms think they need $65 per barrel, on average, to profitably drill a new well this year, per the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

WTI Crude prices have already dropped below this level and were below $62 a barrel early on Tuesday.

Prices could drop further if global oil demand growth slows with weakening economies amid the trade and tariff chaos.

Even OPEC, the most bullish on oil demand of any forecaster, has just cut its 2025 and 2026 demand growth estimate.

In the monthly report on Monday, OPEC said it sees global oil demand growth at 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in each of 2025 and 2026, down by 150,000 bpd for each of the two years.

OPEC’s very bullish forecast (and it should be such if the OPEC+ alliance wants to continue justifying easing of the production cuts) is two to three times higher than most other growth estimates by major Wall Street banks.

After years of supporting oil prices with the production cuts, OPEC will also seek to regain market share at the expense of U.S. shale.

In this context, the U.S. Administration’s tariffs and the uncertainty they bring for American producers undermine the American energy dominance agenda.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/04 ... genda.html

Hahaha, I was wondering when someone would point this out. Trump is less than not smart, a little cunning perhaps but too lazy to think, whatever his gut belches up is genius...I don't think anyone has ever believed their own bullshit so thoroughly.

More on DOGE’s Fraud and Destruction
Posted on April 16, 2025 by Yves Smith

While you’ve been distracted by Trump bringing the WWE to the world stage via tariff body slams leading to market knockouts, the end of due process thanks to doubling down on the illegal deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, Harvard resisting Trump’s plan to dictate many of the university’s operations, and Witkoff playing at being a diplomat in high-stakes negotiations, DOGE has continued burrowing away at the foundations of Federal agencies like hungry termites.

Keep in mind that DOGE’s aim is not to reduce inefficiency. It’s to reduce government operations in a very big way so as to:

Immiserate the poor and others DOGE deems to be burdensome…like Social Security beneficiaries who paid into the system, often over decades

Eliminate or wreck government functions so that the private sector can take over. But as we know, the government has been on an outsourcing kick for decades, so the idea that functions now operated at the Federal level can be done better by outsiders is suspect. This campaign is all about the opportunity for looting, and the harm to the operation of commerce and society be damned.

DOGE as a fraud: Claiming savings while increasing costs. We highlighted an earlier DOGE spreadsheet that claimed to show the source and amount of DOGE’s asserted cost reduction and showed that many of the biggest items were false. For instance, DOGE took credit for contacts that had already been terminated, and on top of that, cited the maximum authorized amount, when the actual expenditures were lower, often greatly so. DOGE then greatly reduced the information it presents so as to preserve its ability to lie.

DOGE has been a complete and total failure.
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— Micah Erfan (@micah_erfan) April 11, 2025



Elon Musk has reduced the claims about what DOGE is saving from $1-2 trillion to $150 billion.

The NYT reports he’s still getting the numbers wrong through things like accounting errors and cancelling contracts that don’t exist.

What a fraud from start to finish.
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— Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania) April 13, 2025



DOGE as destruction: Tearing down the highly efficient Social Security Administration, as opposed to taking on the pork machine of defense spending. On April 14, the Social Security Administration cut its phone staffing and also changed its policy so that “sensitive” information like bank details will no longer be taken over the phone. That means that if you can’t sign up for Social Security successfully online, you will have to go to an office…where getting someone to see you is Kafkaesque….and DOGE has promised to shutter offices.

And even before that, the Social Security site was already crashing, thanks to IT cuts. So even if you were to manage to get to see a live person at an office, if the system was down, they would not be able to address your issue.

And DOGE employees are still trying to defy a court order and access Social Security data…even with not just old hands but even some Trump officials in opposition. From the Washington Post:

Representatives of Elon Musk’s U.S. DOGE Service have sought for weeks to get around a court order barring their access to sensitive data and internal systems at the Social Security Administration, prompting career staff to repeatedly resist their efforts, according to a half dozen people familiar with the DOGE team’s actions and records obtained by The Washington Post.

The battle inside the agency led the Justice Department to intervene to deny DOGE access to the data, even as the Trump administration installed and promoted DOGE-friendly leaders to dramatically cut back services at Social Security.

Please read the piece in full. The reporting is impressive and revealing.

DOGE as fraud: Taking credit for finding abuses so well known they’ve been the subject of Congressional hearings, and resulted from Trump 1.0 expanded unemployment benefits. From Associated Press:

The latest government waste touted by billionaire Elon Musk’s cost-cutting Department of Government Efficiency is hundreds of millions of dollars in fraudulent unemployment claims it purportedly uncovered.

One problem: Federal investigators already found what appears to be the same fraud, years earlier and on a far greater scale…

“They’re trying to spin this narrative of, ‘Oh, government is inefficient and government is stupid and they’re catching these things that the government didn’t catch,’” says Michele Evermore, who worked on unemployment issues at the U.S. Department of Labor during the administration of former President Joe Biden. “They’re finding fraud that was marked as fraud and saying they found out it was fraud….

Though states have almost complete control over their own unemployment systems, special relief programs — most notably widely expanded benefits enacted by the first Trump administration at the outset of the COVID pandemic — inject more direct federal involvement and a flood of new beneficiaries into the system….

Trump signed the COVID unemployment relief into law on March 27, 2020, and from the very start it became a magnet for fraud. In a memo to state officials about two weeks later, the Department of Labor warned that the expanded benefits had made unemployment programs “a target for fraud with significant numbers of imposter claims being filed with stolen or synthetic identities.”…

A Labor Department spokeswoman did not respond to questions about Musk’s findings and DOGE gave no details on how it came to find the supposed fraud or whether it duplicates what was already found.

Though DOGE ostensibly looked at longer timeframe than federal investigators previously had, it tallied just $382 million in fake unemployment claims, a tiny fraction of what investigators were already aware.

DOGE as fraud: After loudly promising transparency, DOGE is anything but. From Politico:

DOGE KEEPS IT UNDER WRAPS: The battle to pierce the veil of secrecy surrounding DOGE and its operations is coming to a head in several lawsuits…

Many of the anti-DOGE….lawyers are trying to answer questions like: What is the basic structure of DOGE? Which officials were involved in cutting-and-slashing efforts? And what sort of access does DOGE have to sensitive agency systems?…

But the Justice Department is fighting vigorously to shield DOGE from having to divulge that information, despite Trump and ELON MUSK’s repeated assurances about transparency. The administration has refused to provide testimony from virtually every official that plaintiffs have tried to depose — and especially from people who work for DOGE.

The entire Politico piece, which goes through several cases of persistent evasiveness and misdirection, is worth reading.

DOGE as a fraud: Endangering national security, stealing data apparently to target opponents like organized labor. This is a much bigger caper than the Watergate break-in, but hacking is so common that even when insiders do it to abuse their power, the outrage is muted. From NPR which broke the story:

In the first days of March, a team of advisers from President Trump’s new Department of Government Efficiency initiative arrived at the Southeast Washington, D.C., headquarters of the National Labor Relations Board.

The small, independent federal agency investigates and adjudicates complaints about unfair labor practices. It stores reams of potentially sensitive data, from confidential information about employees who want to form unions to proprietary business information.

The DOGE employees, who are effectively led by White House adviser and billionaire tech CEO Elon Musk, appeared to have their sights set on accessing the NLRB’s internal systems….

But according to an official whistleblower disclosure shared with Congress and other federal overseers that was obtained by NPR, subsequent interviews with the whistleblower and records of internal communications, technical staff members were alarmed about what DOGE engineers did when they were granted access, particularly when those staffers noticed a spike in data leaving the agency. It’s possible that the data included sensitive information on unions, ongoing legal cases and corporate secrets — data that four labor law experts tell NPR should almost never leave the NLRB and that has nothing to do with making the government more efficient or cutting spending.

Meanwhile, according to the disclosure and records of internal communications, members of the DOGE team asked that their activities not be logged on the system and then appeared to try to cover their tracks behind them, turning off monitoring tools and manually deleting records of their access — evasive behavior that several cybersecurity experts interviewed by NPR compared to what criminal or state-sponsored hackers might do.

Threats against the whistleblower have a guilty look:

crazy. an NLRB whistleblower who shared concerns about DOGE’s activities with government officials was subjected to attempted blackmail and/or surveillance, likely by DOGE staff, in retaliation. pic.twitter.com/gyJrwYB2Fw

— Nat Purser (@NatPurser) April 15, 2025



DOGE as incompetent: exposing logins. Leaving tech doors unlocked is either incredibly amateurish or done deliberately to get something in return. Russians of course are one of our default bad guys. Readers can opine as to how hard it is to create the appearance of a “Russian IP address”. A VPM could achieve that, FFS.

Some (circumstantial) evidence that DOGE sloppiness is risking national security:

A Russian IP address has near real-time access to login credentials for DOGE accounts on federal systems. https://t.co/eajfmb0CRt pic.twitter.com/ccmoFxkhbj

— Santi Ruiz (@rSanti97) April 15, 2025



DOGE as fraud: Forcing resignation of tech experts, thus risking cyber attacks. People who actually know something about the relevant entity and have some tech chops might show up DOGE, and worse, rat out to external parties how DOGE is doing a piss poor job. One fresh case is the resignation of DoD ‘SWAT team of nerds.’ From Politico:

Under pressure from the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency, nearly all the staff of the Defense Digital Service — the Pentagon’s fast-track tech development arm — are resigning over the coming month….

The Defense Digital Service was created in 2015 to help the Pentagon adopt fast tech fixes during national security crises and push Silicon Valley-style innovation inside the Pentagon. It built rapid response tools for the military during the Afghanistan withdrawal, databases to transfer Ukrainian military and humanitarian aid, drone detection technologies and more.

Without the program, some key efforts to streamline the DOD’s tech talent pipeline and counter adversarial drones will be sunset…

Several other digital modernization efforts within the government have met similar fates. The U.S. Digital Service, which helped the government modernize its technology and attract tech talent, has now been subsumed by DOGE, amid mass layoffs and firings. A program called 18F, a technology unit within the GSA, was eliminated by DOGE as well….

One former senior Pentagon official, who asked not to be named because of possible retaliation, described DOGE’s wider incursion into the Defense Department as damaging and unproductive

“They’re not really using AI, they’re not really driving efficiency. What they’re doing is smashing everything,” the former official said.

DOGE as destructive: Infighting as agency chiefs correctly point to DOGE doing damage, here killing people:

BREAKING: In a stunning moment, Donald Trump’s Transportation Secretary just blamed Elon Musk and DOGE for cuts after multiple fatal aircraft crashes. This is shocking.

— Democratic Wins Media (@DemocraticWins) April 11, 2025


Recall that the New York Times had earlier reported on a Cabinet meeting row where Elon Musk pressed Secretary of State Mario Rubio over allegedly not having gotten rid of enough State staffers, which Rubio vigorously contested. Trump somewhat backed Rubio by calling for cuts to be surgical. But regardless, this was a behind-closed-doors dispute that was made public, and not one taken straight to the press.

And then we have ideological enforcement. Covid was supposedly a big Democratic party invention to allow for a power grab, ergo Covid was fake, ergo no need for Covid testing:

DOGE just shut down San Diego County’s wastewater testing system. No more research or monitoring for deadly diseases despite the critical role wastewater surveillance played in fighting COVID. Dangerous and really stupid.https://t.co/3e2LzRnnfs

— Mike Levin (@MikeLevin) April 15, 2025



And even the 250th Fourth of July celebration is also being jeopardized, although in light of the apparent “wreck the US as we know it” exercise, this is fitting. From Axios:

The big picture: State humanities councils planning 250th anniversary celebrations all over the country have had their funding slashed, and those organizations tell Axios they likely won’t be able to execute the big, patriotic plans they had been making.

Trump has called for an “extraordinary celebration” next summer….
The chair of the National Endowment for the Humanities is part of that task force, and state humanities councils across the country had a leading role in planning public events to mark the occasion.
But 80% of the NEH’s staff was placed on administrative leave earlier this month…

Those layoffs came just days after the 56 state and jurisdictional humanities councils were alerted that their funding grants were being terminated.
“These were funds that were already appropriated, that had already been distributed through a competitive process, and they had already been under contract to be provided,” said Julie Ziegler, the CEO and executive director of Humanities Washington.
The latest: The National Endowment for the Humanities on Monday opened applications for 250 challenge grants, worth up to $25,000 each, for projects related to the “founding of the American nation, key historical figures, and milestones that reflect the exceptional achievements of the United States” in honor of the anniversary.

But state officials say the cuts have already prompted them to shed staff and suspend new programming, so even the possibility of new anniversary-specific funding would not fill the massive gap.
DOGE survivors, for now. Despite being an early and high profile DOGE target, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, though a bit bloodied, is still standing. From Fortune:

On Tuesday evening, Sen. [Elizabeth] Warren and fellow Democratic Sen. Andy Kim, who both sit on the Committee of Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, demanded investigations into a push to slash the CFPB’s workforce and cancel its contracts….

A federal judge has temporarily reversed some of the initial cuts at the agency. As part of a lawsuit between a union representing CFPB employees and Vought, a judge ordered the CFPB to reinstate all its probationary and term employees. The order also blocked the agency from terminating employees without cause, issuing a reduction-in-force, or directing employees to stop work or take administrative leave while the case moves forward—though an appeals court said last week that the CFPB could allow work stoppages that didn’t interfere with its statutory duties.

Note that legal experts have repeatedly opined that DOGE can’t cancel contracts, but if DOGE breaches them by withholding payment, they can still kill the contractors since many need the money. That in many cases will have the effect of the victims getting a recovery if they have the means to put up a fight, while the government won’t get the work they will wind up (to at least a degree) paying for. Of course, DOGE wants to destroy firms that can help with enforcement of regulation, so cost is really not an objective, despite that serving as the pretext.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/04 ... ction.html

Don't expect to Dems to save us. The 'good cop' is still a cop.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Fri Apr 18, 2025 3:47 pm

Gestapo tactics: Trump’s deportation war not about “fighting antisemitism”
April 17, 2025 Lev Koufax

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Donald Trump wants the world to believe that fascist thugs kidnapping people in broad daylight is simply a necessary step to protect the poor, suffering Jewish community from an onslaught of antisemitism.

According to the president, the key to winning the battle against antisemitism is to seize and deport pro-Palestine activists, students, professors, and labor organizers. Whether it was Mahmoud Khalil, Rümeysa Öztürk, Alfredo Juarez, Rasha Alawieh, Yunseo Chung, or one of the other people facing abduction and deportation by Trump’s regime, the fact pattern was roughly the same.

Kidnapping workers and activists

Enter a worker, student, or activist going about their lives. Some are on their way to dinner with friends. Some are on their way to work. Some are arriving home along with their pregnant spouses. Now, enter a squad of jack-booted Gestapo throwback agents from the Department of Homeland Security. Before too long, the person is far from their loved ones in a hellhole of a federal detention center.

Donald Trump wants the Jewish community, and really the entire working class, to believe that they should accept the kidnapping and concentration of their neighbors because it is necessary to defeat antisemitism. How ironic, a fascist demagogue would attempt to use the trauma of the Holocaust to justify the usage of the exact same tactics from the holocaust against oppressed communities and progressive organizers.

All this comes from the same man who insisted that there were “good people on both sides” when hundreds of violent neo-Nazis marched on Charlottesville, Virginia. The Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville saw white polo-wearing Nazis marching around chanting “the Jews will not replace us.” The rally also led to the murder of DSA activist Heather Heyer. Good people on both sides, he says.

Donald Trump did not deport a single neo-Nazi who marched on Charlottesville. Donald Trump did not deport the cohorts of Robert Bowers, the fascist organizer who murdered 11 Jewish people in cold blood at the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Donald Trump did not deport any of the vicious anti-Semites who stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. In fact, Trump pardoned all of them.

A new red scare

No Jewish person should be fooled by these deportations as anything but a new attack on the working class and anti-imperialist organizing during a new red scare.

Bring them home! End the deportations! Tear down the prisons!

https://www.struggle-la-lucha.org/2025/ ... isemitism/

*****

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National Museum of African American History and Culture

Trump orders purge of Black History from Smithsonian, targets African American Museum
Originally published: The Black Press USA on March 28, 2025 by Stacy M. Brown (more by The Black Press USA) (Posted Apr 18, 2025)

Even the most cynical observers knew this day would come.

Since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, the dog whistle has become a bullhorn. The whitewashing of American history is no longer implied—it’s spelled out in ink, signed into law, and backed by a government that is now openly in the grip of white supremacist power. In his latest executive order, President Trump has targeted the Smithsonian Institution and the National Museum of African American History and Culture, calling for the erasure of what he deems “divisive race-centered ideology.” He has directed Vice President JD Vance to eliminate these so-called “divisive” elements from the Smithsonian’s 21 museums, educational and research centers, and even the National Zoo. The executive order is chillingly titled “Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History.” It declares that the Smithsonian, once a symbol of “American excellence,” has become tainted by narratives that portray “American and Western values as inherently harmful and oppressive.” “Museums in our Nation’s capital should be places where individuals go to learn—not to be subjected to ideological indoctrination or divisive narratives that distort our shared history,” the order states.

The directive goes further, instructing Vance, along with Vince Haley, Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy, and Lindsey Halligan, Special Assistant to the President, to work with Congress to block all federal appropriations for Smithsonian exhibitions or programs that “degrade shared American values, divide Americans based on race, or promote programs or ideologies inconsistent with Federal law and policy.” The order also aims at the American Women’s History Museum, demanding that no future appropriations “recognize men as women in any respect,” and calls for new citizen members to be appointed to the Smithsonian Board of Regents—individuals committed to enforcing the president’s vision. This is not an isolated move. Since returning to office, Trump has issued a barrage of executive orders aimed at dismantling every vestige of diversity, equity, and inclusion across the federal government. He terminated all DEI programs, calling them “illegal and immoral discrimination.” The National Endowment for the Arts Challenge America initiative—long dedicated to uplifting historically underserved communities—has been gutted. The Pentagon’s website erased the stories of Navajo Code Talkers. A “Black Lives Matter” mural in the heart of Washington, D.C., was demolished. Perhaps most brazenly, the Department of Defense Education Activity banned Black History Month observances at military base schools and ordered the removal of any book or material that mentions slavery, the civil rights movement, or the treatment of Native Americans.

Now, the National Museum of African American History and Culture—which opened to national fanfare in 2016—is in the crosshairs. “In an almost surprising fashion, the Smithsonian has been outside of the bounds of political wrangling,” said Samuel Redman, a history professor and director of the public history program at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. “It’s not as though there hasn’t been political influence … but just in terms of overall funding and support for the Smithsonian, it’s been remarkably consistent.” That consistency has now been shattered. Trump’s executive order doesn’t just attack the museum—it hints at restoring what many hoped America had buried: Confederate monuments, white supremacist names on federal buildings, and the reinstallation of statues that were taken down during the country’s reckoning after the murder of George Floyd.

What the president calls “shared American values” is beginning to resemble a national doctrine rooted in erasure and oppression. The Smithsonian Institution, the world’s largest museum, education, and research complex—was founded on increasing and diffusing knowledge. Established by Congress with funds left by James Smithson, a British scientist, the institution spans 21 museums and the National Zoo, with 11 of the museums located along the National Mall in Washington, D.C. Now, it faces its greatest threat yet—not from budget cuts or neglect, but from a government determined to rewrite history at the expense of truth. The stakes have never been clearer as the country watches these moves unfold. The battle over American history isn’t theoretical. It’s happening now, in plain sight, with executive orders, political enforcers, and the full weight of the federal government behind it. “This is about power,” said a Smithsonian staffer who asked not to be named out of fear of retribution.

They’re not hiding it anymore.

https://mronline.org/2025/04/18/trump-o ... an-museum/

Expect Darwin to be replaced by "Creation Science" in the Museum of Natural History next. Trump strives to fulfill campaign debts when it cost him nothing. Both sides of the Duopoly love Culture War, they'd have been out of bizness 50 years ago without it.

Trump's conception of US history is about what we were taught in the 5th grade in the early 60s which is about where his brain remains.

*****

Trump Makes Presumed Empty but Loud Threat to Fire Fed Chair Powell, Showing that Trump Will Continue to Wreck Markets and the Economy to Prove His Manhood
Posted on April 18, 2025 by Yves Smith

Pretty much everything Trump does is so stupid I can barely stand to write about it. But his dustup with Fed Chair Jerome Powell over Powell’s refusal to cut rates to kinda sorta bail Trump out of his tariff and DOGE disasters merits comment. In case you were busy making Easter eggs when this row started, a short recap from CNN:

President Donald Trump on Thursday ratcheted up his criticism against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling for his “termination” for not cutting interest rates quickly enough. His comments come one day after the central bank chief delivered a stark warning about the effect of Trump’s sweeping tariffs on the economy.

Trump’s first comments on Powell came early in the day, in a social media post. But the president continued ripping into the Fed chief later Thursday, in an Oval Office meeting, piling on political pressure for Powell to lower interest rates.

Ahead of an expected rate decision Thursday by the European Central Bank, Trump lashed out at the Fed leader, saying the US central bank is lagging behind. The ECB later announced it is cutting interest rates for the seventh time in the past year.

“Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete ‘mess!’ Trump wrote. “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”


His comments come after Powell on Wednesday said at an event in Chicago that the Trump administration has brought “very fundamental policy changes,” including sweeping tariffs that are “significantly larger than anticipated.” He said such changes are unlike anything seen in modern history, putting the Fed in uncharted waters and on a path to confront a challenge it hasn’t seen in decades.

The Trump rant on Truth Social:

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Mind you, the real economy damage from Trump’s bizarro wold policies has only started kicking in. Interest rate cuts won’t provide any relief. Trump has set the economy on a stagflationary course. Shortages and business failures are baked in unless Trump reverses course on tariffs in very short order, which his massive need to be seen as the driver of events makes impossible.

A Powell rate reduction now or comments indicating the Fed would cut soon might have given a bit of lift in the stock market. But investors could just as easily (after the predictable bounce) read it as the Fed seeing the economy as weaker than Mr. Market does, or worse, that as the central bank is worried about the safety and soundness of the financial system.

As we have said often over the years, the over-reliance on the central bank to regulate the economy is the result of Congress and the Administration shirking that responsibility. The Fed can curtail an overly-hot economy by raising rates. Former Fed Chair William McChesney Martin famously depicted the Fed as “in the position of the chaperone who has ordered the punchbowl removed just when the party was really warming up.”

But the impact of interest rate actions is not symmetrical. We saw during the era of super-low interest rates how they increased existing economic distortions and did not stimulate economic activity. For the most part, businesses do not expand their operations just because money has been put on sale. They decide to take the risk of betting on growth when they see favorable conditions in their market. The big exception is businesses where the cost of money is their biggest cost, such as financial institutions and leveraged speculators. So the result was a decade plus of increased income inequality and so-called secular stagnation.

Perhaps Trump believes a Fed cut would lower Treasury borrowing rates. But the Fed, in normal times, controls only the very short end of the curve. Unless inflation expectations abate (and that seems impossible in light of tariff-induced price increases, ex a collapse in demand eventually generating deflation, which is highly destructive) intermediate and longer maturity Treasury yields will remain high. The way for the Fed to lower them is QE. Since Trump is all about escalation, would he demand that when whatever sugar high a rate cut induced wore off?

As to the Trump threat, while commentators seem highly confident that the current Supreme Court would reject Trump’s Powell dislodgment effort if he were to litigate, that does not mean that it would not impose costs. Investors who are already justifiably worried about the combo plate of Trump’s terrible judgment and his gaping yaw of need for more power would be rattled by more evidence of Trump’s insistence on flattening any obstacles to his rule by whim.

(More at link.)

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/04 ... nhood.html

“Is Trump About to End Democracy in the USA?”
Posted on April 18, 2025 by Yves Smith

Yves here. The headline from Richard Murphy may seem overwrought, but Trump actions have been so wildly out of bound that nothing is impossible. The latest Trump salvo against legal protections and civil rights is expected to come on or before April 20, as in Easter Sunday. Waging Nonviolence gives the background:

With President Trump constantly flooding the zone, there’s a chance to think ahead about the possible implementation of the Insurrection Act. One of Trump’s presidential actions calls for the Secretary of Defense and Homeland Security to submit a joint report by April 20. The report will offer “any recommendations regarding additional actions that may be necessary to obtain complete operational control of the southern border, including whether to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807.”..

The Insurrection Act is a dusty law that has gone without updates for 200 years. The original text states: “That in all cases of insurrection, or obstruction to the laws… the president of the United States [can] call forth the militia [or armed forces] for the purpose of suppressing such insurrection.” (Technically, it is now not just one law but a series of statutes in Title 10 of the U.S. code.)

President Trump loves direct control and so it strikes me that invoking the Insurrection Act is very likely. This occasionally used provision empowers the president, with few legal limitations, to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops inside the country….

One should note the narrowness of Trump’s proclamation that could lead to the Insurrection Act being invoked. It’s framed as being used for “operational control of the southern border” — not broader mass deportation or, what some of us feared, targeting nearly all anti-Trump political activity.

This means the Insurrection Act may be initially more focused. Folks on the border will bear the brunt of further militarization — despite an already heavily militarized border where crossings have dropped dramatically.

Trump’s desire to criminalize protests against him is obvious. ICE is effectively kidnapping green card holders who have only exercised their freedom of speech, such as Mahmoud Khalil and Rumeysa Ozturk. One executive order attempts to criminalize protesting in Washington, D.C. And the FBI is on a McCarthy-like venture looking for “domestic terrorism” among anti-Tesla protests.

It therefore appears that Trump would relish the opportunity to use the Insurrection Act more broadly against opponents. If the first move is somewhat limited in scope — e.g. the border and ICE enforcement — he will look for a violent spark that he can claim as pretext to expand the scope more widely.


It’s not hard to see that violent action is close to baked in as incomes collapse and businesses fail thank to the tariffs even as cost for basics will also be rising. For instance, Conor featured this tweet today in Links:

Many truckers I've spoken with don't realize how quickly container volumes have collapsed.

Starting in May, port freight out of California will be almost eliminated.

Its going to be a bloodbath in dray, followed by intermodal, and then a collapse in I-20 & I-40 trucking.
Sean Taj
@TajSean
Replying to @Dominick_Tullo and @FreightAlley
May 2020 had 51 shipments blank sailings. Over 80 so far in April 2025. COVID will look like good times.


Admittedly, truckers so far have not been as effective in protests as they hoped. But they have also not collectively had tons of time on their hands and an imperative to Do Something as a result of losing their livelihoods. And I believe most have guns to protect themselves while driving. Truckers by themselves

I know a US citizen who has been involved in anti-Trump activism (but not on the hot topics of the Palestinian genocide or immigration) who is so worried the April 20 plans that he plans to leave the US if the announcement is as bad as he fears. And he is well along in getting a non-US citizenship but I am not sure whether he has it in hand.

By Richard Murphy, Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School and a director of the Corporate Accountability Network. Originally published at Funding the Future

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807 to enforce his rule, via a militia if need be, ending democracy in the USA in the process?



(More at link.)

(When I wrote the title of this thread the thought was that establishment reaction to Trump might degrade the illusion of democracy as well as Trump himself. That stands.)
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Sat Apr 19, 2025 2:42 pm

Survival Or Looting? What Trump's Revolution Is Really About

Many people, including me, are still not sure what Trump's revolution - in trade, international relations and in his fight against the U.S government at large - is all about.

Trump, it seems, sees that the current path the U.S. is on, with ever increasing deficits and debt, is unsustainable. He and his people argue that the dollar as a reserve currency is doing more harm than good for the country. They point to the decrease in manufacturing as the main symptom of a larger disease.

They believe it is necessary to destroy the old system before a new, more glorious one, can arrive. They know that the process will be painful for many but hope for a better outcome on a new trajectory. (There is also a motive of personal profit.)

Alastair Crooke is alluding to all that when he writes (also here):

The Trump ‘shock’ – his ‘de-centring’ of America from serving as pivot to the post-war ‘order’ via the dollar – has triggered a deep cleavage between those who gained huge benefit from the status quo, on the one hand; and on the other, the MAGA faction who have come to regard the status quo as inimical – even an existential threat – to U.S. interests.
...
Vice-President Vance now likens the Reserve Currency to a “parasite” that has eaten away the substance of its ‘host’ – the U.S. economy – by forcing an overvalued dollar.
Just to be clear, President Trump believed there was no choice: Either he could upend the existing paradigm, at the cost of considerable pain for many of those dependent on the financialised system, or he could allow events to wend their way towards an inevitable U.S. economic collapse. Even those who understood the dilemma the U.S. faces, nonetheless have been somewhat shocked by the self-serving brazenness of him simply ‘tariffing the world’.

Trump’s actions, (as many claim), were neither ‘spur of the moment’, nor whimsical. The ‘tariff solution’ had been pre-prepared by his team over recent years, and formed an integral part to a more complex framework – one that complemented the debt-reduction and revenue effects of tariffs, by a programme to coerce the repatriation of vanished manufacturing industry back to America.

Trump’s is a gamble that may, or may not, succeed: ...


A similar argument can be found here:

Even though Trump explained the logic of the tariffs as an attempt to correct the trade imbalance between the US and the rest of the world, White House officials [(archived)] outlined the expected goals behind the tariffs in more detail. They described these goals as concentrating economic forces nationally to “push for structural changes to the global economy to rectify challenges that are difficult to overcome, including high tariffs globally, currency and tax policies, intellectual property theft, and even health and labour standards”. Ultimately, Trump aims to reshape the global economic order by prioritising America’s national interest through this wide range of tariffs.
...
Trump fully understands the consequences of his policies. America’s “aggressive unilateralism”, which started in the 1980s with Ronald Reagan, has now peaked. Trump isn’t an outlier; he embodies the genuine interests of a waning superpower, whose policies mirror the conflicting and shifting global reality he navigates. Trump’s 2nd administration is poised to instigate a major crisis and widespread devastation worldwide to prevent its inevitable downfall. Their rise to power and the ensuing actions merely reflect the profound structural and historical changes occurring in the international political economy and the global power architecture.


There are also such headlines

Trump’s in-the-know plan to demolish the US economy - Asia Times
Trump insider claims demolition plan will necessarily ‘decimate millions of investors’ while reset will bring ‘greatest wealth creation’ ever seen


I do not know if those are Trump's real intentions or if all such talk is just obfuscation to hide the immense insider dealing and looting that is coming along with it. The later might very well be its sole purpose.

As Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism sees it:

[W]e are in the midst of a revolution, one run by reactionaries trying to cement the advantaged position of the rich and further immiserate the rest of the population. I warned from the outset that the only way to make sense of the Trump policy blitz was that he and his allies intended to created a Russia-in-the-1990s level crisis so as to facilitate elite asset grabs.
She is on board with Michael Hudson in this. Hudson ...

.. explains why the seemingly novel part, the heavy use of tariffs, represents continuity of neoliberal and libertarian policies, of reducing the role of government in commercial and private life. He contends they therefor have perilous little to do with “rebuilding” America and are intended to allow the super-rich to extract even more from ordinary citizens.

Trump is not alone in doing this. There is a swarm of multi-billionaires around him who are pushing for it:

A sector of the U.S. capitalist class is now openly in control of the ideological-state apparatus in a neofascist administration in which the former neoliberal establishment is a junior partner. The object of this shift is a regressive restructuring of the United States in a permanent war posture, resulting from the decline of U.S. hegemony and the instability of U.S. capitalism, plus the need of a more concentrated capitalist class to secure more centralized control of the state.

Trump is slashing the budgets of many vital institutions and, via Elon Musk's DOGE, eliminating their means to function and to measure outcome. He is enriching himself by building a cryptocurrency empire while destroying its regulators.

While this is mostly a fight at home there is an strong international component to it. As Brian Berletic provides:

The US is preparing to subject its own population as well as those of its supposed “allies” to immense long-term economic, social, and political pain. The cost-of-living crisis in the US will only grow worse. The US hopes that it can endure economic pain and disruption at home and abroad better than the emerging multipolar world can. Multipolarism’s survival will depend on proving otherwise.

And therein lies the trouble for Trump. The looney tunes trade policy will be felt in China and elsewhere. But the pain level in the U.S. will be much higher. Other government will provide for their populations while the Trump administration has no intent do similar at home.

His tariffs against China will have similar consequences as the European sanctions on Russia. The targeted country will have no problem to handle the onslaught while the initiators will deeply hurt their own polities.


Posted by b at 15:32 UTC | Comments (8)

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/04/s ... l#comments

The US has been on "permanent war posture" since 1939.

Old 'b' is diplomatic, a good portion of those who post in his comments are right wing hoodleheads. The 'Trump Revolution' is mostly about Trump, his ego and self-aggrandizement. Others, especially the Muskrat, will influence him for their own private and ideological purposes, flattery will get you far. He likes hanging with those guys, makes him feel smart.

It is vital that we understand that the assumptions of Trump which we find outrageous are common among his peers which is why he is their avatar.

Sometimes there are indeed 'cunning plans' but sometimes there's just Nero.

******

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Trump Supporters Don’t Understand Free Speech

The hypocrisy of Trumpists cheerleading the president’s assaults on free speech makes it clear that they have no idea why free speech ever came to be valued in our society in the first place.

Caitlin Johnstone
April 19, 2025

The Trump administration continues to arrest and deport people for criticizing Israel’s genocidal atrocities in Gaza and the US empire’s support for it — and Trump’s supporters continue to applaud these abuses. To call this hypocritical after the way these people spent years rending their garments about the erosion of the First Amendment would be a massive understatement.

The hypocrisy of Trumpists cheerleading the president’s assaults on free speech makes it clear that they have no idea why free speech ever came to be valued in our society in the first place. They think freedom of speech is so esteemed because it feels nice to be able to say whatever you want, and it upsets their feelings when people tell them they shouldn’t say “retard” or make unkind remarks about trans people — which people are allowed to do under the Trump administration.

They seriously think it’s all about them and their feelings. They’ve never put any more thought or research into it than that.

And from this point of view it makes perfect sense for them to say “It’s fine to deport that person for criticizing Israel, because they’re not a citizen. They don’t have free speech rights.” They think free speech is just a pleasant perk that lets US citizens enjoy the nice feelings of being able to say whatever they want; the people having their green cards and student visas revoked for inconvenient speech don’t have citizenship, so they don’t get to feel the nice feelings.

But it has nothing to do with anyone’s feelings. The first and foremost reason free speech is important is because it puts a check on the abuses of the powerful. The First Amendment of the US Constitution isn’t there to ensure US citizens get to feel nice feelings, it’s there to restrict the government’s right to obstruct the free flow of information, thereby enabling the citizenry to effectively organize any necessary opposition to the status quo. At least in theory.

This is why the first thing any tyrant does after consolidating power is always to restrict the flow of information. It’s not to make the public feel bad feelings, it’s to prevent anyone from sharing information about their abuses to foment discontent and organize mass resistance.

Free speech, if sufficiently realized, could solve all our problems. If information was really flowing freely without being constantly manipulated and obstructed by the rich and powerful, our rulers would no longer be able to manufacture consent for our abusive status quo, because everyone would be aware of how bad things are and how much better they could be.

It is only because the rich and powerful are able to do things like buy up media companies, rig algorithms, fund think tanks, decide what films get made, decide who gets famous and who remains marginalized, silence and deport political dissidents, and restrict access to information by deeming it “classified” that our abusive political norms are able to be maintained. If information was truly democratized and freely flowing, nobody would tolerate being impoverished, sickened and oppressed for the benefit of a few oligarchs and empire managers.

The US government isn’t deporting critics of Israel because it wants them to feel bad feelings, it’s deporting them because it doesn’t want Americans to hear legitimate criticisms of US foreign policy. They aren’t merely violating the rights of the speaker by restricting the flow of this information, they’re violating the rights of anyone else who would hear it. They are doing this to help ensure public consent for a genocidal status quo that a populace with an informed mind and an informed conscience would never consent to.

https://caitlinjohnstone.com.au/2025/04 ... ee-speech/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Sun Apr 20, 2025 5:40 pm

Trump Trade War Update
Four Global Times Items
Karl Sanchez
Apr 19, 2025

Image

China’s answer to the question in the image would be that there are no winners in a trade war. The answer has some truth to it, but reality indicates it’s Trump and the Outlaw US Empire that’s losing, which IMO was predictable at the outset. Today’s Global Times provides four reports that provide an update to the current situation, take a look at what came before, and conclude with the new situation the world is facing. The latest moves by Trump attack China’s shipping industry and its logistical support as the first report details:

Multiple Chinese industry associations oppose US restrictions on China’s maritime, logistics, shipbuilding sectors:

Multiple Chinese industry associations issued stern statements on Saturday opposing the US Trade Representative (USTR)'s Section 301 action targeting China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, echoing the firm opposition expressed by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) on Friday.

The China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) criticized the US restrictions, urging the US to abide by market principles and multilateral trading rules, and correct its actions. The association argued that the US' unilateral and protectionist stance undermines the multilateral trading system and international trade rules.

These US measures negatively impact logistics firms, shipowners, cargo owners, importers, exporters, and consumers in both countries, CFLP said in its statement, warning that such actions could harm China-US economic and trade relations, may further increase international logistics costs, disrupt global industrial and supply chains, and threaten global economic development.

The China Association of National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI) on Saturday voiced strong opposition to US restrictions. The association criticized the US for unjustly cracking down on China's shipbuilding industry with baseless accusations and flawed investigations, noting that this constitutes a violation of international trade rules and significantly undermines the collaborative development of the global maritime industry.

The US restrictions on China's shipbuilding sector will inevitably disrupt the global maritime industry. This move will not aid the recovery of the US shipbuilding sector but will instead directly push up international shipping costs, exacerbate the domestic inflation crisis, and harm the basic living standards of the American people, the association said on its WeChat account.

The China Shipowners' Association (CSA) strongly opposes and protests the US' restrictions. The association rejected the US' unfounded accusations, which it says are based on incorrect information and bias, and denounced the misuse of protectionist measures that disrupt the global shipping market.

The CSA urged the US to stop investigations and actions driven by political bias, rescind all discriminatory measures, and genuinely abide by international trade rules and market principles. It calls for an end to actions that could seriously harm the normal development of the global maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, according to the release.

In response to the USTR's Section 301 action, MOFCOM said on Friday that China strongly deplores and opposes the US move.

The US action is a typical example of non-market behavior with discriminatory overtones, the ministry spokesperson said, adding that China will closely monitor the situation and take firm measures to safeguard its own rights and interests. [My Emphasis]


As noted previously, these idiotic acts by Trump will do nothing to help reconstitute the Empire’s shipbuilding industry and will only lower the living standards of US citizens by driving inflation and killing jobs—essentially recreating stagflation. As the next report shows, Trump has been forced to alter some of his initial actions because they didn’t have the anticipated outcomes:

US reportedly may form task force to handle China tariff impact; move shows counterproductive effect of tariff bully: expert:

US government officials, anticipating supply chain strains due to steep tariffs on Chinese goods, have discussed forming a working group to deal with the problems with urgency if there's no breakthrough with Beijing, CBS News reported on Friday US time, citing multiple sources.

The reported tariff-related move by the US government showed it has moved from frequent and inconsistent adjustments of tariffs to the pressing need for a working group to tackle potential supply chain problems, which is a typical self-made predicament and counterproductive approach, a Chinese expert said.

While not finalized, the working group would likely include Vice President J.D. Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, according to the report, citing sources.

The US administration has already been working on supply chain issues for some time in anticipation of the imposition of the tariffs. Medicines, semiconductors, electronic devices and critical minerals could face supply pressure after the White House and Beijing imposed a series of retaliatory tariffs, according to CBS.

The US government has recently made rounds of tariff hikes primarily targeting China. On April 2, it announced sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" on all its major trading partners.

But on April 9, it announced a 90-day pause on its "reciprocal" tariffs for most countries, excluding China, which continues to face a combined US tariff rate of up to 145 percent on its exports.

On Tuesday, the White House said that Chinese exports to the US could face tariffs of up to 245 percent.

The recent tariff-related moves by the US government have evolved from frequent and inconsistent adjustments to the necessity of establishing an emergency task force to address the situation. This clearly reveals that the government is creating its own problems and finding itself in a passive predicament, akin to shooting itself in the foot, Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, told the Global Times on Saturday.

In response to each round of US escalation, China has issued swift and legitimate countermeasures. On April 4, China announced a series of moves including a 34-percent additional tariff on all US imports.

On April 9, the Tariff Commission of the State Council announced that the additional tariff rate on US goods would be raised from 34 to 84 percent.

On April 11, the Tariff Commission of the State Council announced another increase, raising the additional tariff rate on US goods from 84 to 125 percent, as a countermeasure.

In response to the US tariff bullying and threats, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has responded multiple times, reaffirming its firm stance.

In response to the White House's claim that China is facing up to a 245 percent tariff on Chinese goods "as a result of its retaliatory actions," a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said on Thursday that the US' extortionate tariff hikes on China have become a numbers game, which economically does not make much actual difference anymore, except further demonstrating how the US weaponizes tariff to coerce and bully others.

Tariff and trade wars have no winners. China does not want to fight those wars but neither are we afraid of them. If the US continues to play this numbers game with tariffs, it will simply be ignored. But if the US continues to inflict actual damage on China's rights and interests, China will respond with resolute countermeasures and will stand our ground to the end, the spokesperson said.

From the outset, the US' extreme pressure exerted on China has consistently failed to achieve its intended goals. Now, the negative impact on the US' domestic economy and the challenges it faces have become increasingly evident, highlighting an urgent need for resolution. This process clearly illustrates the counterproductive effects of the US' tariff bully, Gao noted. [My Emphasis]


I must admit the composition of the proposed working group consists of clowns having no real understanding of what they’re doing. CBS also did a poor job of reporting the actual status of the tariff and embargo situation. President Xi’s recent state visits to three key ASEAN members to promote solidarity and strengthen all trade logistics was deemed a success. It must be mentioned that China built its supply chains in anticipation of their being attacked by the Outlaw US Empire, which is why so few dislocations have occurred. China is well aware of the history of Empires using tariffs to subjugate rivals some of which is reviewed by the next report:

Replaying 19th century tariff wars to restore American dominance is an illusion:

History seldom repeats itself in detail, yet the echoes are often hauntingly familiar. Let's begin not with the global headlines of tariff threats and decoupling but with the late 17th and early 18th centuries.

Back then, Indian textiles, such as fine muslin and printed cotton, were defined as "Made in the East." Their reputation traversed oceans, captivating Europe's elite and gracing the wardrobes of the British aristocracy.

India's textiles were not just beautiful objects; they symbolized the subcontinent's sophisticated manufacturing and economic might. But the storm was coming when the complex calculus of Empire took hold.

Britain's textile factories churned into life as the Industrial Revolution gained momentum. Yet, British textiles struggled to compete with India's hand-made marvels. London's response was swift and decisive but ruthless in its design. The British government imposed prohibitive tariffs on Indian cotton goods and, in some instances, outright banned their import into Britain. Simultaneously, it opened the gates for British machine-made textiles to flood the vast Indian market, free from duties with its system under the control of the Empire.

Little by little, India's artisans—the pride of generations—were caught in a vice. Denied access to affordable raw cotton and squeezed by aggressive British imports, many went out of business, forced by circumstance to abandon their crafts for lives of rural poverty.

This was not the invisible hand of "market forces" at work. It was the mailed fist of Empire. Redcoats and warships enforced Britain's economic policy, and resistance was harshly crushed when it arose. India had no power to rewrite the rules imposed upon it.

Under the guise of "rule of law" and "free trade," the Empire dictated a game whose outcome was preordained. As historians now call it, "deindustrialization:" one of the earliest and most devastating in history, where a vibrant economy was forcibly reduced to a supplier of raw materials and a captive market for foreign manufactured goods.

Fast-forward to the present. At the height of its global influence, the US finds itself uneasy in the face of a resurgent China--the world's leading manufacturing nation whose products are woven into the fabric of the global economy.

In response, Washington has launched an unprecedented trade war, wielding tariffs in hopes of slowing or even crippling the growth of Chinese manufacturing.

Some Washington policymakers seem convinced that imposing steep tariffs on Chinese goods and restricting technology transfer can restore American manufacturing to its former primacy.

Through punitive measures, they hope to reclaim the unchallenged leadership their predecessors once knew. However, the world of today is not that of yesteryear.

It is vital to remember how radically the landscape has changed. The Britain in 19th century could only force its vision upon India because it wielded overwhelming military and colonial power; the India of that era had no say in its fate.

Contemporary China, by contrast, is a sovereign country, an indispensable link in the global supply chain and a major driver of technological progress.

The intricate web of globalization now binds economies together in ways unimaginable even a generation ago. China and the US are not two players on opposite ends of a see-saw but partners, competitors, and co-dependents in a vast, shared ecosystem.

Washington's embrace of a zero-sum approach—the notion that American renewal requires the deliberate weakening of Chinese manufacturing--reveals a mindset rooted in imperial nostalgia.

Replaying the tariff wars of the 19th century could restore the status quo of American dominance. But this, too, is an illusion.

The privileges of historic empires cannot be restored simply by presidential decree or trade policy crafted in committee rooms. The world's realities—technology, sovereignty, and interdependence--require a new story.

History is not a script to be replayed but a mirror—a means to understand how far we have come and how much we must change. It is time to look forward, not backward, and to seek a future where open cooperation, not imperial nostalgia or zero-sum rule, defines our place in the world. [My Emphasis]


I’m sure some readers didn’t know about the South Asian textile prowess that England destroyed, and that Ghandi’s weaving his own cloth and clothing now makes sense because of that history. That the English and their American offspring behave like outlaws is rooted in their Imperialism, although what they’ve done with it differs because the historical context changed. It appears the goal today is to establish Fair Trade, which we might call a regulated Free Trade with the WTO existing as the regulating agency. The complex system of global supply chains the Outlaw US Empire now wants to unravel was woven by the demands of Western Industrial Capitalism and now serve the interests of Global Industrial Capitalism, which means they’re very unlikely to be undone—modified, but not done away with. That’s the reality Trump and team can’t seem to fathom likely because their goal isn’t MAGA—to rebuild America’s industrial manufacturing base—because it would need to rely on the globalized supply chain. This question’s thus begged: What really resides at the root of Trump’s Trade War against China? IMO, Sinophobia.

The reality that Global Industrial Capitalism (GIC) exists introduces us to the basis for the next report that GIC can also be expressed as Multipolar Globalization:

Globalization isn't over; it's just beginning:

Today, amid the tariff war, we witness the emergence of throwaway lines about the "end of globalization." If we mean globalization defined by the dominance of the transatlantic economies, then that happened some time ago. Some have leaped on the notion of the "end of globalization," but the evidence suggests that something else is happening.

Rather, we now have the end of "globalization with Western characteristics," and the beginning of "globalization with multipolar characteristics." It is a new chapter of globalization in which the US and the Western powers are decentered. But it is not a retreat into a state of autarky, though perhaps it could be argued that the current spate of tariffs issued by Washington speaks to a temporary retreat of the US from intensified global interactions.

Globalization with multipolar characteristics is one of intensified international relations through ongoing and expanded trade (with or without the US), growing capital flows via diversified sources, and a network of multipolar institutions at regional and sub-regional levels providing economic and security governance architecture. The tariff war, initiated by the current US administration, creates the conditions in which this form of multipolar globalization is accelerated. The cornerstone of this unfolding phase of international interactions will be intensified cooperation.

China's growth as a global manufacturing superpower and major trading partner for over 150 nations is the preeminent feature of today's globalization. Its economic linkages and overall heft create ballast when the global economic system has been disrupted as it has been, and its institutional steady-hand acts as an enabling focal point for nations to coordinate their actions. China can and should continue to open its market to others, providing alternative opportunities for enterprises around the world.

Globalization with multipolar characteristics can be enhanced and accelerated through a focus on the following initiatives.

In terms of trade, nations need to remain committed to the World Trade Organization and subordinate regional multilateral and bilateral arrangements and agreements. These institutions need reform to ensure they are suited to modern times, but are foundational to the multilateral trading arrangements that have benefited the world for many decades. Additionally, committing to these institutions demonstrates that countries are "good for their word" and that for them, agreements matter and are dependable. This is crucial in an environment where capricious actions undermine trust in counterparties.

Furthermore, nations need to focus on expanding trade cooperation. This means coordinating their actions domestically to optimize supply chain alignments, and ensuring that trade delivers mutual benefits and meets the development aspirations of participants. With short-term trade disruptions occasioned by tariff-based uncertainties, coordinated fiscal measures can be mobilized to provide a consistent compensatory boost to demand as the US market becomes less dependable.

Trade can also be boosted through ongoing work to enhance transnational digital standards for supply chain data. This provides regulatory agencies, such as customs, with transparent, dependable data on trade consignments enabling fast-tracked processing, and buyers and their financial stakeholders with streamlined data-enabled payments and settlements.

Facilitating trade growth must also go hand-in-hand with enhancing capital flows to support the development of the global south. Financing development via the traditional post-Bretton Woods institutions of the World Bank and IMF has largely failed to alleviate global under-development. These institutions need to be reformed so that the voices of the Global South can more effectively be heard. At the same time, new national currency-based development financing institutions are needed to enable the mobilization of critical human capabilities and technologies to tackle historic uneven development and dependency. The New Development Bank established by BRICS countries, and other multilateral financial institutions such as the Asia Development Bank among others, can be propelled to take on greater responsibility in financing development.

Lastly, globalization with multipolar characteristics needs security institutions that are focused on indivisible security and the security of all, rather than on institutions that frame the world in zero-sum security games. A United Nations true to its founding charter is worth working collaboratively towards, rather than being jettisoned in haste. The principles championed by China in its five principles of peaceful co-existence, as well as those advocated by the Bandung conference of the non-aligned movement, can be marshaled to provide a focal point for a new style of governance and statecraft.

"Globalization with Western characteristics" may well be coming to an end. However, with concerted efforts to intensify coordination and collaboration, the benefits of "globalization with multipolar characteristics" can be better shared across the globe. [My Emphasis]


As the author notes, “The tariff war, initiated by the current US administration, creates the conditions in which this form of multipolar globalization is accelerated.” This affirms what many have observed—that Team Trump failed to think things through regarding this policy or that the announced policy goal was false from the outset. Since Trump has not announced any relative policy initiatives to actually reconstitute America’s industrial manufacturing base and ways to make it competitive globally, the falsity of MAGA grows every day that no plan’s announced. Whatever fantastical goals for the Trade War Trump entertained in his mind have run into a very hard wall of reality. The Globalization envisioned by Neoliberalcon reactionaries known as Globalists has failed and the new reality of Multipolar Globalization is in the process of supplanting it. The institutionalized web of multilateral organizations formed 25+ years ago are too powerful for the former global hegemon to destroy unless it also destroys itself. Like the wolf in the children’s tale, will Trump continue to try and blow the house of Multipolar Globalization down, or will he tire and seek a way to co-exist with it? This is all about managing a declining empire; one choice will hasten its decline, the other choice will prolong its existence and make its landing softer.

https://karlof1.substack.com/p/trump-trade-war-update
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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Mon Apr 21, 2025 2:29 pm

Witkoff Meets Putin: Conflicts and Questions
Posted by Internationalist 360° on April 18, 2025
Christopher Black

Image

President Trump’s use of a personal envoy in key foreign negotiations, especially with Russia, has sparked tensions within his administration and raised doubts about the coherence and credibility of U.S. foreign policy.

Much is made recently in the American media and political circles of the apparent conflict between Marco Rubio, the American Secretary of State, or Foreign Minister, and Steve Witkoff, the billionaire lawyer and real estate mogul, and personal friend, who acts as President Trump’s personal emissary in various negotiations with foreign powers, most notably Russia, Israel, and Iran.

Reports are circulating that Rubio is frustrated with being side-lined as the head of the American diplomatic service and has considered resigning, a report he denies as nonsense, yet the reports still circulate.

President Putin has also used a rich man, Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s Direct Investment Fund, to meet with US officials, but he has an official capacity, and he presents the same points of view as the Russian Foreign Minister, Lavrov. There is no public difference of opinion between them or other Russian government representatives. But Russia has to be concerned with who they are dealing with in the negotiations with the United States, when talks are held with a personal emissary and not government representatives who set and conduct official US foreign policy. For whether or not tensions or differences of opinion exist on the Russian side, and these can arise in any negotiations, the official Russian position on the issues in question is consistent, no matter who is doing the talking.

Splits In Trump’s Team

In the case of the United States, their appear to be major differences between Trump and Witkoff on one hand and Rubio, Walz, the National Security Advisor, and General Kellogg, Trump’s others appointed emissary, regarding Ukraine, on the other hand, with Trump and Witkoff willing and ready to negotiate with Russia and seek an end to the Ukraine war on terms that allow them to save some face, while the others seem to be moving towards the European position and a more hard line against Russia.

Hardline Pressure on Trump

There is a lot of pressure on Trump and Witkoff to retreat from their position, to revert back to the long-standing objective of the United States, to bring Russia to its knees, and it comes from leaders of the EU, from Canada, from the Democrats and some Republicans in the US, and from the western media who cannot give up their anti-Russian propaganda. They castigated Witkoff for saying nice things about President Putin after his meetings with him, and for accepting the Russian position that it is the US and the neo-Nazi regime they put in power in Kiev who are responsible for the war in Ukraine. The attacks border on hysteria. The anger is palpable. As Trump bombs Yemen, murders women and children there, and supports Israel doing the same in Gaza on a mass scale, and Kiev bombs Russian civilians daily, the western media says nothing about it, while condemning Russia in the most vile terms for a missile attack on a meeting of military personnel in Sumy in which some civilians may have been harmed, what the Americans call “collateral damage.”

The Purpose of Using Personal Emissaries

So why do leaders of nations use private emissaries to conduct negotiations instead of the professional diplomatic representatives? It is a practice with an ancient history. The French made it famous during the reign of Louis XV during the wars in the mid-18th century, variously known as the Wars of the Austrian Succession, the Silesian Wars, and the Seven Years War. During those wars, Louis the XV often by-passed the diplomatic service and used secret envoys to convey messages and proposals to foreign heads of state. The names of the secret envoys were several but included Voltaire, who passed messages back and forth between Louis and Frederick the Great, who was Voltaire’s deep friend.

This practice became known as the Secret du Roi, secret of the king, and it has its advantages if handled carefully. It allows a government to explore options secretly it cannot afford to explore or propose openly, either due to concern about criticism or for fears about secrecy and security, since it is easier to ensure secrecy with one envoy than with many. But it has to be done with finesse so that the heads of state talking through these envoys can trust each other’s word, and so that a concrete resolution can be achieved that can then be implemented by the regular diplomatic service.

In the case of King Louis, his secret envoys were indeed acting in secret. No one except the envoy and the King and his opposing party knew about it. However, in the case of President Trump, the envoy acts in the open while the contents of the messages conveyed and answers received are held secret. The trouble with this method is that everyone knows meetings are taking place and has expectations about them that are frustrated due to the secrecy, and so rumours fly about what did or not take place at the meetings. This creates its own pressure, for meetings held in secret, as Louis used to conduct, that is, without anyone knowing about them, do not have this problem. Another reason for their use in those days is that Louis was an absolute monarch and he could come to terms with an adversary and make it work. He just had to give the order. Advisors might have objected, but he had that power, as did Frederick the Great. Trump is not an absolute monarch, though many think he wants to be. By himself, he cannot bind the United States government to anything permanently. He needs to have the approval of his cabinet, and for any major Treaty, the American Congress.

So why does Trump use a personal envoy with no official position in the American government, a personal business friend, to conduct negotiations with Russia, and Iran as well, and not his own Secretary of State? Clearly, he feels he can trust Witkoff to convey his personal views and proposals accurately and is comfortable with giving him discretion to make his own proposals as the situation may require, and does not feel that trust with Rubio. One can understand the reports of Rubio thinking of resigning. What role is there for him in any of this, or the Department of State? None apparently.

Can Trump Make A Peace Alone? Can Russia Rely On It?

One can ask, so what? What does any of this matter in the end if a deal can be made? None, if a deal is made. But the problem is that Russia or Iran cannot be sure that by coming to terms with the President Trump, using Witkoff, that they have come to terms with the American government as a whole, with the American establishment, that will still exist when Trump leaves office four years from now, nor even that a deal made with Trump will be kept by Trump himself, whose history of withdrawal from or throwing in the dust, Treaties he or his predecessors negotiated, and ratified by the US Congress, is notorious.

For unless the American establishment, the “deep state” if you will, the real powers in government in the USA, agree to any terms agreed upon, then any agreement will be temporary at best. How can Russia be sure that Trump can bind the United States to an agreement with Russia? It cannot. For waiting in the wings are the Blinkens and Clintons and Bidens of the USA, who want at all costs to carry on the war against Russia.

The other obvious problem is that the Trump did not first seek the agreement of the other co-belligerents in the war to his peace proposals, the British, French, Germans and the rest who, corralled into the war by the Americans, and who jumped in with enthusiasm, do not want to give up the attempt to bring down Russia after all they have invested in the project, nor does the regime in Kiev. They are not only angry at Trump’s hopes for peace but how he goes about it, ignoring them with contempt. They do not see Trump seeking a general peace, but seeking a separate peace, to their detriment, the denial of their hoped-for spoils of war.

Russia also has to take this into account. What can it mean to strike a deal with the USA alone, and one which may be temporary? What kind of deal? Trump does not offer anything concrete to the Russians. What can he offer? Can he offer the removal of “sanctions” in the economic war against Russia? Those put in place by Biden’s Executive Order, he could easily rescind. But he has not done it. Can he remove the EU sanctions? He cannot. Has he stopped shipping arms and ammunition to Kiev? Has he given any concrete, practical sign that he is serious about coming to terms with Russia’s clearly stated terms for a peaceful resolution of the conflict?

If he has a sincere desire to find a resolution, why are these issues not clearly addressed? Why has he not acted for peace by some gesture at least, aside from sending Witkoff to talk? Biden withdrew US forces from Afghanistan in days, something Trump refused to do, for he wanted that war to carry on. Why does Trump not order the removal of all US forces from Ukraine, Poland, Romania, the Baltic States- as a gesture at least? He could do it. But he does not. The Europeans would complain about the “threat from Russia.” Yet, Russia’s response is simple, the Red Army was withdrawn from all of Eastern Europe, a grand strategic gesture Russia may now regret, but one which told Europe, we are not your enemy, we are your friends. We want peace, not war, so we are removing our forces from your lands. What other guarantee do the Europeans need? None.

Trump Seeks Peace Yet Continues The War

But the Americans did not withdraw their forces from Europe in reciprocity; instead, against their own promises, they expanded their military presence in those same countries, moved NATO forces close in to Russia, to prepare for war. Can Trump offer President Putin the reversal of NATO’s expansion? Can he rescind the acceptance of all the new NATO states into NATO? No, he cannot. He would have to dissolve NATO to do it, and he does not seem to have any immediate intention to do that, instead he demands the EU countries pay more into NATO and build up their forces, for what? For one objective only, war on Russia. So how can he begin to talk with Russia about a new European Security Structure they insist upon when the old one lingers on, when the Europeans state openly their intent to prepare for war with Russia?

Can he agree to de Nazify Ukraine? Again he cannot. That can only take place with the overthrow of the NATO installed regime in Kiev, and the effective removal of the Nazi elements in it and their military formations. He cannot when, in the EU, Canada, and the USA, Nazis are celebrated. Only Russia can accomplish that.

Can he guarantee that Ukraine forces will vacate Novorossiya, that no further attacks on it will take place? Again, he cannot, since he seems to have lost control of Zelensky and the nationalist elements in Kiev who seem to be suicidal in their demand the war continue, and increasingly angry with Trump for trying to shake them down by taking control of their mineral and other resources, with some in Kiev now saying they would be better off making a deal with Russia than with the Americans.

Russia’s dilemma is that it faces not one enemy, but several and only one of them is at least willing to talk, and that not through normal diplomacy but through a personal emissary. Russia can dismiss the EU nations as irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, but it is not just them they have to deal with, it is the entire anti-Russian alliance that has been built up all these years within Europe and within the United States of America. It may be that President Trump does seek a settlement of the Ukraine conflict, not from high moral motives, but for practical reasons. It may be that Witkoff has presented ideas to President Putin on how Russia can be satisfied and Russia’s terms met. We can hope so. Yet, many questions hang in the air and we, as citizens of the world, can only watch events unfold with puzzlement and anxiety, while wondering what our future will be.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/04/ ... questions/

Witkoff's head is so far up Trump's ass he can see tonsils.

******

How Trump Deportations Fit Into War Against American Workers
Posted on April 21, 2025 by Conor Gallagher

The Trump administration is ending work authorizations for two hundred union members who assemble dishwashers, refrigerators, washers, and dryers for GE Appliances-Haier at Appliance Park in Louisville, Kentucky. It also revoked the visas of several members of the Graduate Workers Coalition at the University of Indiana. The union frequently strikes and pickets for better wages for student teachers.


Mostly lost in the firestorm around Abrego Garcia, the man who was illegally deported to the notorious hellhole prison in El Salvador, is that for the past year he worked as an apprentice with the Sheet Metal Air Rail & Transportation Local 100 union. Perhaps that fact contributed to what the Trump gang calls the “administrative error” that led to his rendition. Judging from the larger pattern, it doesn’t appear to have been an error at all.

While the number of deportations under Trump lags behind the pace of the Obama and Biden administrations, Team Trump looks to have a goal in mind. Edgar Franks, the political director of Familias Unidas, had this to say to Truthout about the crackdown on farmworker organizers:

From the beginning, we thought Project 2025 and its plan for mass deportations was meant to send a chill among farmworker organizations that had been gaining momentum. It was meant to silence the organizing, deport as many people as possible, and to bring in a captive workforce through the H-2A program.

We think that might be the ultimate plan: to get rid of all the immigrant workers who are organizing and fighting back for better conditions, and to bring in a workforce that’s under the complete control of their employer with basically no rights. It’ll make it even harder to organize with farmworkers if more H-2A workers come. It wouldn’t be impossible, but it’ll be more difficult. All the gains that have been made in the last couple of years for farmworkers are at risk.

While Project 2025 wants to get rid of labor protections in almost every fashion, it actually calls for reducing H-2 visas, which allow employers to hire foreigners for temporary work. H2-A is used for agricultural workers and represents 70% of H-2 issuances, and the H-2B for non-agricultural workers represents the remaining 30%.

There is clearly friction between MAGA and big business as the H1-B visa showdown demonstrated, Trump usually sides with the money as he did in that case. The MAGA movement about ethnic belonging as some form of essential right as an American citizen and rebuilding the mostly white working class. Silicon Valley and other financial stakeholders are about destroying labor, which means engineering an easily exploited workforce.

If an individual anywhere in the world can contribute to the bottom line of American monopolies, then they are welcome in the US — as demonstrated by Trump’s “Gold Card” scheme, in which visas are up for sale. Here’s Trump:

“A person comes from India, China, Japan, lots of different places, and they go to Harvard, the Wharton School of Finance. They go to Yale. They go to all great schools. And they graduate number one in their class, and they are made job offers, but the offer is immediately rescinded because you have no idea whether or not that person can stay in the country. I want to be able to have that person stay in the country. These companies can go and buy a gold card, and they can use it as a matter of recruitment.”

Lowly farmworkers and hotel cooks and cleaners won’t be getting a gold card but they can contribute just the same.

At an April 10 cabinet meeting Trump said that undocumented people working on farms and in hotels would be allowed to leave the country and return as legal workers if their employers vouched for them. Here’s the quote:

“We have to take care of our farmers, the hotels and, you know, the various places where they tend to, where they tend to need people…So a farmer will come in with a letter concerning certain people, saying they’re great, they’re working hard. We’re going to slow it down a little bit for them, and then we’re going to ultimately bring them back. They’ll go out. They’re going to come back as legal workers.”

What —or who— does he mean? And why is the administration deporting people who were already here legally?

A White House official told NBC News that Trump wants to “improve” the H-2A and H-2B programs, which coincidentally his businesses increasingly rely on.

Let’s briefly look at some numbers. As of 2024 there were 384,900 H2-A and 215,217 H2-B workers in the US. About 40 percent of U.S. farmworkers are undocumented, and as of 2020 there were more than 406,000 individuals with Temporary Protected Status, which allows them to reside and work legally in the US due to unsafe conditions in their home country. The similar humanitarian parole covered another 530,000-plus like the 200 union members in Kentucky mentioned above.

Key about those latter two categories is the ability to stay in the US is not directly tied to work. Team Trump is working to end those programs but facing legal obstacles.

It’s not clear what exactly the improvements are that Trump plans to make to the H2 program. So far, it appears as though the goal is to simply replace current undocumented workers, asylum recipients and other protected immigrants with more of an H-2 workforce would be a boon for employers as H-2 employees would be more vulnerable to abuse than those they would be replacing. It’s also likely to hurt American workers. The Food & Environment Reporting Network on how:

…these visas are notoriously abusive to foreign workers. That’s because they effectively create a captive workforce: In contrast to other immigrant workers in the U.S. — including recipients of certain humanitarian programs, like TPS — H-2 workers’ presence in the country is tied to a particular job and employer. H-2 employees are eligible to work for whoever sponsors their visa, and it can be prohibitively difficult for them to switch jobs even if they’re mistreated. If they quit, they’re sent back to their home countries, which would ruin many H-2 workers and their families financially. (Over half of all H-2A farmworkers enter the country in debt to illegal recruiters, who charge fees for connecting workers with job contracts.)

…Predictably, some employers take advantage of the power the H-2 program gives them over their employees. The nonprofit Polaris, which runs a U.S. human trafficking hotline, has connected the H-2A visa to rampant human trafficking, as have a number of criminal cases and media investigations. Wage theft is also a pervasive problem. In an interview with Prism media, Mike Rios, a DOL regional agricultural enforcement coordinator, said that wage theft is “baked into” the H-2A visa, and described the program as the “literal purchase of humans.”

H-2 workers have so little bargaining power that some employers prefer to hire them over U.S. citizens — which ends up disenfranchising the American-born workers Trump and Miller say their deportations will benefit. Under federal law, employers must show they were unable to hire American workers before they’re approved to hire H-2 workers, but some employers circumvent that rule and commit visa fraud to avoid hiring Americans at higher rates. The United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) has filed a string of complaints with the DOL, alleging that meatpacking companies have repeatedly requested increased allocations of H-2B workers as a way of undercutting wages.

How’s that for “America First”?

But it’s not just Trump. While he always acts as an accelerant, this is a process decades in the making ever since neoliberal ideology took over both American political parties nearly half a century ago. The role of immigration in the ongoing class war is succinctly described here by Michael Macher:

…the US immigration system runs not on the enforcement of immigration laws, but on their selective nonenforcement. Employers have relied on the state to ignore the exploitation of undocumented labor while holding the credible threat of deportation over workers. This has had the effect of strengthening employer bargaining power generally against all workers—lowering wages, weakening unions, and shifting the politics of work away from collective bargaining and wage-and-hour regulation. The interest in labor that is weak and disorganized has driven US politicians, consciously or not, to adopt the role of petty bosses, threatening the deportation of significant portions of the US workforce. But if Trump can afford to blow up this arrangement, it is because the precarity of the undocumented worker represents the future of labor relations in the US, not its past.

How so? In essence, the administration is engaged in a workforce engineering project reminiscent of university founder Leland Stanford’s brutal equine engineering in early Silicon Valley. Here’s Malcolm Harris’ description from his book ‘Palo Alto’:

It’s worth retracing our steps to the Palo Alto system, in which potential counts for everything –– but only a specific kind of potential. A colt that won’t pull a cart is no good to the system, no matter how fast. And a colt that organizes all the horses to strike? That’s no potential at all.

Organized laborers — and especially immigrant organizers — not only don’t have potential, but are part of what the administration and its Silicon Valley stakeholders consider “nihilistic violent extremists.”

With Trump and DOGE’s gutting of the National Labor Relations Board, attacks on federal workers unions, selective deportations, Gold Cards, and promotion of H-2 workers, this Palo Alto system vision is coming into view.

It heralds a day where all workers are as exploitable as the immigrant and accelerates a decades-long trend in that direction. Where is this leading? We can turn to the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 for clues. Written by numerous now-Trump administration officials, it includes in its recommendations the steps Trump has already taken, as well as many more. Among them:

Make overtime pay available to fewer workers. Trump cut the pay of hundreds of thousands of federal workers by rescinding an order that their wages be indexed to inflation.
Abolishing all public sector unions. Trump is trying to get rid of collective bargaining labor protections for federal employees. In the name of national security, of course.
Ban the use of card check, one of labor’s most effective tools to organize workers.
Gut worker health and safety protections. As just one example, the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) is no longer enforcing its rule titled, ​“Lowering Miners’ Exposure to Respirable Crystalline Silica and Improving Respiratory Protection.” And DOGE is closing 33 MSHA field offices in 19 states, accelerating a trend of closures, which means fewer inspectors and mine inspections.
Maybe the most egregious example is the big comeback of child labor— again this predates Trump but he acts as an accelerant. In some cases the exploitable (immigrant adults) are now being exchanged for the more exploitable (immigrant children). This comes as the administration just canceled millions of dollars in international grants that a Department of Labor division administered to combat child labor and slave labor around the world.
The list goes on and on. The assault on worker protections has been relentless. Despite all these actions and the high-publicity “ICE Barbie” at the Department of Homeland Security, what the administration has yet to do is go after employers of illegals, which is the easiest and most effective way to stop the hiring of illegals.

For decades, every administration has promised to go after employers and failed to follow through. Instead, we have only gotten more power going to employers who leverage the threat of deportation with impunity and use immigration law as a shield against labor law.

Trump is looking to further these trends, as he did in his first term. During that time the temporary work visa programs steadily grew a total of 13 percent larger, and he used the Covid emergency to help make it happen:

During the pandemic, his administration issued a series of emergency measures that made H-2A and H-2B visas more flexible and employer-friendly. Workers were allowed to stay in the country for longer periods of time, in part because they had been deemed “essential workers,” and wages for H-2A workers were effectively frozen.

With trade war and worker shortage emergencies just around the corner, it won’t be surprising to see the administration try to make a similar move with regards to the H-2 programs.

In conclusion, the administration’s immigrant-labor overhaul is more about strengthening the oligarchic police state than gains for the MAGA workers.

Rather than manufacturing jobs, we’re getting a militarized border with big handouts to well-connected surveillance and population control tech companies, as well as the private prison industry to remove the “horses” no longer showing potential.

Rather than cracking down on employers exploiting foreign labor, we’re getting an assault on universities and rendition of immigrant activist students in order to cow elites, silent dissent, and please the Zionist crowd.

And rather than better pay and working conditions to entice American workers, we’re likely to get an increase in H1 and H2s to further drive down wages and worker protections. High-profile cases in the news day after day of ICE smashing car windows and dragging out brown people and students being snatched up from bougie universities with billion-dollar endowments, well, that might make it seem like Trump is really doing something.

When that high wears off, however, and the dust settles on the latest assault on worker rights, everyone might be feeling a little more vulnerable. Kind of like an immigrant.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/04 ... te-it.html
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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Tue Apr 22, 2025 2:55 pm

What If They’re Just Stupid?
Posted by Internationalist 360° on April 20, 2025
indi.ca

Image
Tom Carlyle delivering a different lecture

I try to intelligently analyze White Empire as best I can, but something irks me. What if there is no plan? What if they’re just stupid? What if the simplest answer is that they’re just simpletons? What if they’re just cutting coke with Occam’s Razor, and licking the blade with wild abandon? At this time, a Great Man Theory (GMT) of history won’t do, we need a Great Idiot Theory (GIT).

The Theory

Great Man Theory comes from a series of lectures by Thomas Carlyle from 1840, called On Heroes. It’s an erudite, expansive work, covering everyone from the Prophet Muhammad to Shakespeare to Napoleon Bonaparte. Most people reduce Carlyle to out of context quotes (in the context of reduced attention spans), and I’m afraid I’m no exception. For our purposes, Carlyle said, “Universal History, the history of what man has accomplished in this world, is at bottom the History of the Great Men who have worked here.” I would amend just one word. Great Men might mark the top of history, but the bottom is just morons.

Carlyle addresses this. In his section on kings and kingslayers, Carlyle posited a difference between the ‘Ablest Man’ and the ‘Unablest Man’, each emerging cyclically throughout history. As the modern airport novel wisdom goes, “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.” Carlyle seems to talk about the American Devolution today, when he talks about the French Revolution of yore,

This is the history of all rebellions, French Revolutions, social explosions in ancient or modern times. You have put the too Unable Man at the head of affairs! The too ignoble, unvaliant, fatuous man. You have forgotten that there is any rule, or natural necessity whatever, of putting the Able Man there. Brick must lie on brick as it may and can. Unable Simulacrum of Ability, quack, in a word, must adjust himself with quack, in all manner of administration of human things;—which accordingly lie unadministered, fermenting into unmeasured masses of failure, of indigent misery: in the outward, and in the inward or spiritual, miserable millions stretch out the hand for their due supply, and it is not there.

The ‘ignoble, unvaliant, fatuous man,’ an administration of quacks, ‘fermenting into unmeasured masses of failure.’ Does this not describe the current situation in parallax? Trump is a revolutionary in the sense of turning things over, and French in the sense that nothing good comes of it. There’s an English saying, cometh the hour, cometh the man, but at this late hour, who’s answering the call but morons and charlatans? As Yeats said, “The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.” There’s also a Chinese saying, 时势造英雄, “the times create their heroes,” but what does this mean in a time of decline? The times also create their zeroes, who drive the ‘miserable millions’ down accordingly.

Critique Of GMT

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One critique of GMT comes from Karl Marx, who said, “how absurd is the conception of history held hitherto, which neglects the real relationships and confines itself to high-sounding dramas of princes and states.” Marx describes his alternative, historical materialism, saying,

History is nothing but the succession of the separate generations, each of which exploits the materials, the capital funds, the productive forces handed down to it by all preceding generations, and thus, on the one hand, continues the traditional activity in completely changed circumstances and, on the other, modifies the old circumstances with a completely changed activity. This can be speculatively distorted so that later history is made the goal of earlier history, e.g. the goal ascribed to the discovery of America is to further the eruption of the French Revolution. Thereby history receives its own special aims and becomes “a person rating with other persons” (to wit: “Self-Consciousness, Criticism, the Unique,” etc.), while what is designated with the words “destiny,” “goal,” “germ,” or “idea” of earlier history is nothing more than an abstraction formed from later history, from the active influence which earlier history exercises on later history.

History is thus a palimpsest (a manuscript rubbed out and rewritten), and the medium is the message (as McLuhan said). Personally I have noticed this as America being evil now (something I only recently noticed) reveals that America was always evil (to my shame). I can feel the palimpsest being scrubbed out and overwritten in my brain, though I still can’t spell the word for the life of me. It’s yet such a delightful and descriptive word that I can’t refrain.

Describing historical materialism, Marx says, “It shows that circumstances make men just as much as men make circumstances.” But then, aren’t we back where we started? Cometh the man, cometh the hour, only reversing the order. Greater (or lesser) men will always rise (or fall) to the occasion, their personalities providing a violent volatility around the general arc of history. History creates a certain probability for change, but only personality tells us what shape it will take.

Marx views history through production changes and class struggle. Thus feudal production systems produced barons, just as capitalist production produces robber barons. That is, a certain production system leads to the reproduction of certain morons, leading to high drama of princes and states, or CEOs and corporations. In both cases, once you gather enough grain or GDP to sustain an insane inbred population, they do insane inebriated things.

Practice

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Aimé Césaire

Pre-industrial European history was largely a bunch of inbred morons doing inane things, culminating in Queen Victoria’s grandchildren fighting over their toys (World War I) and smashing everything. There were very few, very incestuous, people making very stupid decisions and chaos ensued. Sound familiar?

Production based on land reproduced landed nobility. In the same way, production based on capital reproduces capitalists. Trump, for example, is a second generation capitalist. He inherited $40 million from his father and could have been just as rich passively investing it. Today, most billionaires are produced this way, through inheritance rather than entrepreneurship. This new class of inherited capitalist holds the same investments, goes to the same schools, wears the same watches, and rapes the same children. A production system of widespread machines has turned into a reproduction system of insular morons.

Today the 50 richest Americans hold nearly as much wealth as the bottom 50%. Just a few families control America, and they all know each other. Given that wealth is legally speech in America these people can buy both sides of the 2% spread that divides elections and continue the party, whatever the party. Duopoly is even better than monopoly because it gives you plausible deniability. As Julius Nyerere said, “The United States is also a one-party state, but with typical American extravagance, they have two of them.”

Just as bankers and the merchant class displaced European nobility, cash is king in America. American politicians are not public but private servants, they’re answerable to the ‘donor class’, because America has legalized bribery. Western politicians are just hired hands, accountable to rich shareholders, not poor voters. Very few people behind the scenes actually run the White Empire, and they’re hardly people. Marx called them “capital personified and endowed with consciousness and a will.” This private jet-set is the new unlanded ignobility.

In this way material conditions lead us to the “high-sounding dramas of princes and states” all over again. The reproduction and concentration of capital leads to the reproduction and concentration of capitalists, becoming successively more moronic over degenerating generations. Thus we end up back in the age of mad kings doing mad tings, only under different production systems.

Thus the question is not really what Trump produces but what produces a Trump. What system would elevate such an “ignoble, unvaliant, fatuous man” to power? What leads to “forgetting that there is any rule, or natural necessity whatever, of putting the Able Man there”? It is, in fact, an unable system that calls out for an unable man, to represent it. As Aimé Césaire said, “a civilization which is morally diseased, which irresistibly, progressing from one consequence to another, one denial to another, calls for its Hitler, I mean its punishment.”

Evil Is Stupid In The Long Run

Even more pointless than looking for intelligence in this stupidity is looking for morality, but let’s do it, because I think evil and stupid are the same thing, just with a timing difference. If you look at any moral advice it is really just good advice, in the long run. Evil is stupid in the long run, especially if you consider the hereafter (though in the meantime it can be fun). If you cheat in business, you’re less likely to be trusted, you make your own life harder. If you cheat on your wife, you have a more stressful life, you wreck your own home. Of course, people ‘get away’ with cheating all the time, but how far do they get, and how often do they fall? Doing evil is simply more risky in the long-run, AKA stupid, especially considering the hereafter, as you should.

In this way, colonialism was always stupid in the long run, a global minority trying to cheat and steal from the global majority was always going to go Global South at some point. There’s simply more of us, and technology moves around. While they did get away with colonialism for centuries, that was just a blink of the historical eye, and that eye is opening. Climate collapse, Palestinian liberation, Chinese independence, these are all part of the same reckoning. When Trump responds to this with traditional western racism, it appears stupid, but remember that everything Trump is doing was once conventional wisdom.

As Ernest Renan from the no-good French said (via Césaire), “The regeneration of the inferior or degenerate races by the superior races is part of the providential order of things for humanity… Nature has made a race of workers, the Chinese race, who have wonderful manual dexterity and almost no sense of honor; govern them with justice, levying from them, in return for the blessing of such a government, an ample allowance for the conquering race, and they will be satisfied.” Trump is called a moron for trying to extort the Chinese today, but it was (and is) common continental sentiment to treat them this way.

Césaire introduced this Renan saying, “Who is speaking? I am ashamed to say it: it is the Western humanist, the “idealist” philosopher… “Hitler? Rosenberg? No, Renan.” White people blame racism on their ignorant poors, but this ideology was written by their elites long before. Modern racists are simply regurgitating the blood meal of past centuries. People say Trump can’t do this, but no less than Immanuel Kant says that he should. Kant said, “the race of the whites contains all talents and motives in itself” (so tariff everybody else into oblivion).

Even though Trump’s ghostwriter Tony Schwartz said, “I seriously doubt that Trump has ever read a book straight through in his adult life,” Trump nonetheless channels the id of imperialist thought unconsciously. As John Maynard Keynes said, “Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.” In this way, Trump is simply distilling the jist of western thought, which is that the west is the best and everybody else can eat shit. Trump’s frenzy really expresses the whole of western philosophy, which claims the whole category of philosophy, and deports everything else to departments on the periphery.

But Trump comes too late to avert his fate. While fate might lead the willing (re: Seneca) it drags the unwilling, and Trump is dragging America to the fate it deserves more rapidly than intended. This is one of those moments when a Great Idiot takes the reins of a probable decline and yanks it downwards into a certainty. As Césaire said. “At the end of capitalism, which is eager to outlive its day, there is Hitler. At the end of formal humanism and philosophic renunciation, there is Hitler.” You can sense that America is eager to outlive its day, having voted for the man twice. And so they go out in the traditional American white man way, murder-suicide of the whole family.

Trump is the heir to an inheritance that’s already been spent. He’s the hair combed over a baldness that’s already apparent. He’s the last furious attempt to simply eat the palimpsest of history before it’s overwritten by present rebellions. White Empire was always evil but only now does it appear stupid, as it’s ending. Evil is just stupid in the long run and this is the long run. As Frank Sinatra sang, send in the clowns, don’t bother, they’re here.

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Frank Sinatra painting a clown for some reason

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/04/ ... st-stupid/

'Red' Added. These many attempts posted every day to ascribe deep strategy or cunning plans to Trump's ego driven behavior are desperate denials that we allow ourselves to be ruled by clowns. Trump IS the 'Avatar of his Class', with all that implies.
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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Thu Apr 24, 2025 2:54 pm

How Are Those Tariffs Going?
The Inevitability of US Surrender Talks
Roger Boyd
Apr 24, 2025

As China has remained resolute, President Trump is already rolling back his rhetoric and is looking for a way out from the policy hole that he himself created. Once a bully understands that his threats are not working, and that his opponent has the upper hand and is resolute, he will climb down. Another embarrassing failure early in the Trump administration. Below I lay out the reality that the US, and US corporations, are facing if the tariff war is not quickly resolved.

It has now become obvious that the US administration wanted to create a cordon sanitaire around China to stall China’s onward economic development; using threats of crippling tariffs to bully other nations into cutting off China. The problem with this approach is that it is about two decades too late, as China is now the largest trading partner for Asia, Australia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and South America. China is also the dominant supplier of many, many critical inputs to other nation’s industrial processes, including those of the US. The Chinese Party-state has responded by making sure that everyone understands that it will take actions against nations that give in to the US bullying.

The view that the US can bring back the manufacturing industry that its oligarchs have spent many decades destroying and offshoring is delusional, as S. L. Kanthan notes for these ten reasons:

*Wall Street and US corporate elites will not invest in manufacturing.

*The US lacks skilled manufacturing workers.

*Young Americans have no desire to work in factories.

*Environmental laws are too strict.

*The costs of labour and doing business are too high.

*The US does not have good infrastructure, such as railways, seaports or even electricity.

*The rules of the game could change quickly, for example if the Democrats win the mid-terms. Here, the sheer volatility of Trump himself does not help. Companies cannot make long term investments in such an environment.

*Bullying will not work when the US is not ideal for manufacturing, if it was it would already be flourishing.

*China, and Asia, have mastered the manufacturing supply chain.

*You cannot reverse 45 years of de-industrialization.

To get to the position that it is currently in, it has taken China 45 years of highly competent and comprehensive economic and societal planning in an environment that was highly supportive due to the US opening up free trade for China, and the Western oligarch happiness to move their manufacturing to China. As T.P. Huang notes, China is now in its third phase of industrial development.

1980 - 2005

Provision of an endless supply of cheap labour for Western corporations to use as a base of cheap manufacturing, while China gained knowhow through Foreign Direct Investment and technology sharing. Much of Western thinking is still stuck in this period.

2005 - 2020

China becomes so good at manufacturing that Western corporations end up using China for all manufacturing, hollowing themselves out. In this period the vast amount of the profits still went to the Western corporations who controlled the brands, the IP and the supply chain - as with Apple. This is the period when Sean Starrs questioned whether China could ever overcome US power given that its more advanced manufacturing exports were still under the control of Western foreign enterprises. This also included the period of Trump’s first term.

2020 to Now

China has resoundingly answered Starrs. As T.P. Huang correctly stated, China had to move into a position:

where it controls the design, the technology and the supply chain so that Western companies cannot just get up and move that to another country. China had to be less reliant on foreigners and more on itself. It cannot rise to a great power and still [be] reliant [upon] foreign countries not turning hostile.

And that is exactly what it started to do. The pre-eminent example is that of the electric vehicle and battery industry where it is the Chinese owned companies that are now dominating - such as BYD, Geely, Chery, SAIC, Xpeng, Xiaomi, Huawei and CATL. Both Xiaomi and Huawei have much larger industrial and technological footprints, of which their EV successes are just a part. The same can be said for the whole “green” industrial sector. Also, in areas such as drones (DJI) and humanoid robotics, and China is rapidly catching up in chip manufacturing.

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T. P. Huang

Operating in the global centre for manufacturing, which encompasses all parts of the manufacturing supply chain, Chinese companies have an unassailable advantage in the speed of new product design and introduction; as seen in the EV industry. Within the massive industrial clusters, such as that centred around Shenzen, companies can work very directly with all parts of the supply chain. Something that is simply not available to corporations not located in such clusters. Because of this:

Product iteration time for a company in Shenzhen or Hangzhou is so fast. They have full access to ppl that design boards, understands mfg process, can buy all the ICs/parts & that do multi-modal small models. There is no language or timezone barrier. How to compete w/ this? For example, if you are in North America, how do you source the right battery for your electronic device? When the any supply chain and manufacturing know how exist in 1 area, you have to go there to work efficiently. As we head to a time when toys, appliances, consumer goods and machineries all become increasingly more electronic and smart, China has a distinct advantage in produce iteration. That’s what we have seen in EV industry, where China has clearly taken a multi-year lead. You can see that also in the exports. When China Inc starts to design the best product, then it also captures the entire value chain. Products will get cheaper globally, but Western designers will increasingly loose [sic] out.

China is rapidly moving up the value chain, with more labour intensive and less value-added work being off-shored to other parts of Asia; such as Vietnam. This produces a virtuous circle where such offshoring drives the economic development and rising living standards of Asia, which in turn drives Asian demand for Chinese products and Chinese investments. China is bringing both economic development and rising living standards to Asia and the rest of the non-Western world as it drives demand for commodity imports, exports its less value-added manufacturing, and provides products at cheaper prices to the world. This process is rapidly displacing Western corporations and Western influence. The recent Canton Fair showed the strength of China, as corporations from around the world flocked there to see the latest Chinese offerings.



The “dominate the supply chain while making everything in China/Asia and capturing most of the profits through colossal markups” strategy of so many Western corporations, including the sellers of luxury goods, now has a Chinese dagger pointed directly at its heart. As Chinese brands establish a stronger and stronger presence across the globe those incredibly fat profit margins will shrivel, and with them the earnings and price earnings multiples of Western share prices. We already see this in the automobile industry (excluding the Tesla bubble) and it will become apparent across one product sector after another. A reality which the YouTube channel “Inside China Business” has repeatedly pointed out. It is these profits that maintain the de-industrialized US.





As Warwick Powell details, we could also see a significant disintermediation of US retail platforms such as Walmart, Amazon, Target, Best Buy, and Foot Locker to bypass the usual 100% physical retailer markups and steep online seller markups and fees. By cutting these out, foreign manufacturers (especially the Chinese ones that provide about 60% of goods on Amazon and in Walmart) can maintain profitability while keeping prices relatively close to the pre-tariff level. The pressure will be immense to dis-intermediate the supply chain between manufacturers and the end customers. Platforms such as AliExpress, Temu, Shein, Alibaba and even TikTok shop could come out as big winners from this trend, with customers learning to accept slightly slower delivery times in exchange for a much lower price. US retailing provides 10% of the jobs in the US. As Powell puts it:

Before Trump’s tariffs, American OEMs and brands were perfectly content to outsource everything from design-for-manufacturing to tooling, to final assembly, to China. The strategic and value trade-off was clear: “Let Chinese firms do the hard, low-margin work, and we’ll capture brand value, IP rents, and global consumer markets.” This worked for decades, until it didn’t.

Trump’s first wave of tariffs in 2018-19 disrupted this set of quiet interdependent relationships. Chinese manufacturers were forced into the spotlight. They started to advertise their capabilities to the world. The ‘hidden secret’ of Chinese OEM capability was no longer a secret. Many began to pivot into direct-to-consumer brands, especially on Amazon and now TikTok …

Trump 1.0 and now Trump 2.0 is ushering in an era of supply chain disruption, but not in the way that was anticipated when policy-makers in Washington began talking about ‘bringing back manufacturing’. Manufacturing won’t be coming back to the United States any time soon in any great quantity. But the supply chain disintermediation sparked by the introduction of tariffs will now affect both the upstream sources of American economic value (namely in design, brand ownership and IP rents) and the downstream systems of retailing.


The US tariff and export-control bullying comes at just the time when China is making itself independent of the West, and the nations of the rest of the world outside the West increasingly have another alternative to the West. One that does not interfere in their internal affairs and tends to bring development, upgraded infrastructure, cheaper products, and even financing without the usual IMF/World Bank “structural adjustment” conditions. Making matters worse for the US is the combination of gross incompetence and overweening arrogance of a US administration that has picked a tariff fight with the whole world.

A number of foreign trade delegations have already expressed their frustrations that the US administration cannot tell them what it wants, while it also overreaches for significant interference in the internal functioning of other nations; such as questioning Value Added Taxes, food regulations, and nation’s own relationship with China. At the same time China has shocked the assumptions of the US administration by directly retaliating with 125% tariffs on imports from the US, and with a refusal to negotiate until the US shows some basic level of respect and diplomatic competence. At the same time, it is offering free trade to other nations and has even excluded components produced in Taiwan from the tariffs on US imports as that nation is deemed to be part of China; greatly complicating the US attempts to move chip production from Taiwan to the US. In addition, the recent success of Huawei with AI chip sets, together with further US restrictions on chip exports to China, has already driven the founder of Nvidia to visit China and talk about the wonderful relationship that he wants to continue with the country.



As China stands firm, and other nations also do not bend to the US bullying, the effects of the tariffs will work their way through the US economy. First with the Western US sea ports, then through the transport infrastructure of trucks and railways, and then onto the shelves and production lines of US companies. As shortages ripple through the US economy, inflation will spike while production falls. More and more US companies will be warning of supply chain issues, while the US agri-business sector collapses as its biggest export market has disappeared. Just as all this is happening, the Trump administration has exacerbated the economic fallout through its xenophobic and arrogant attitudes toward immigrants, visiting business people and academics, and even vacationers. The US foreign tourist and educational industries will take a severe hit from the masses that stay away due to not wanting to deal with the empowered ICE (Immigration & Customs Enforcement) bigotry and arrogance, and not wanting to reward the Trump administration’s insults, threats and bullying. There will also be long-term damage to US research and innovation, as foreign researchers and skilled workers increasingly see the nation much less as a “promised land” and more as a xenophobic and racist one that is better steered clear of.

The US financial markets had started trading more like those of an emerging economy, as the dollar and the stock market fell while interest rates rose. Trump then started to publicly bad mouth the Fed governor who sees the need to hold interest rates steady with the tariff-induced incoming inflation, raising the possibility of 1970s style stagflation. At risk is emerging-markets style capital flight that would produce a rapid financial crisis within the US. As Pepe Escobar notes below, the Chinese leadership and population are defiant and will not yield as the effect of the tariffs work their way through the US economy. This will continuously increase the pressure upon the Trump administration to find a way to quietly surrender. The utter idiocy and arrogance of Trump in his statements about China, and even a Vice President that described the Chinese as “peasants”, has not helped the US cause.



It has now come out that the Treasury Secretary Bessent is utterly blinded by an ideologically-driven anti-China bias, even to the point of rejecting any articles that were positive about China at the think tank that he previously headed. At the Institute of International Finance Bessent stated the following:

China can start by moving its economy away from export overcapacity, and toward supporting its own consumers and domestic demand. Such a shift would help with the global rebalancing that the world desperately needs.

Of course, trade is not the only factor in broader global economic imbalances. The persistent over-reliance on the United States for demand is resulting in an evermore unbalanced global economy.


The US share of China’s total exports fell from 18% in 2017 to only 14.7% in 2024 (2.33% of Chinese GDP), while the Chinese share of total US imports fell from 21% to 13% during the same period. China has been reducing its dependence on the US for demand, with only 2.33% of GDP now directly dependent upon such US demand. During the same period, China has greatly expanded its exports to the global south at the cost of Western exporters. In 2017, Chinese imports from the US were worth US$130.4 billion, and in 2024 US$143.5 billion. A reduction as a share of Chinese GDP, and predominantly easily replaceable agricultural products, fossil fuels, chemical products and metals. In 2023 Chinese retail sales increased by 7.2%, in 2024 by 3.5%, and at a 4.6% annualized rate in Q1 2025; hardly showing a country with a domestic demand issue.

The statements of the Treasury Secretary are utterly disconnected from reality, placing him in the same camp as the President, the VP, and the anti-China lunatic Commerce Secretary. None of them have ever been involved in manufacturing, nor worked on an industrial development plan. They have now entered a period of a very severe and painful “learning experience”, which may unfortunately produce very negative consequences across the United States.

Let’s remember that China already enjoys free trade with the ASEAN nations of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. In early July this year, the BRICS countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates will meet in Brazil. The BRICS partner countries of Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Nigeria will also be in attendance. This will be an excellent opportunity for the non-Western nations to coordinate their response to the US aggression.

Trump has now walked back his threats to fire the Fed Governor, and is now softening his rhetoric toward China as he looks for a way out from his self-created problem.



I would not be surprised if the Chinese drag this process out, as Trump is hoist on his own petard as the negative effects work their way through the US economy. On a strategic level though, China wants to manage the relative decline of the US at a controlled pace that will not trigger global economic fallout or outright conflict. There will be some resolution, but the relationship between China and the US has been forever damaged while China has gained geopolitical capital by resolutely standing up to the Trump administration. The controls on the export of Chinese strategic minerals may also be kept in place, as a way of limiting any US military build up and slowing US high technology developments.

With the probable failure of the Ukraine War negotiations, the tariff climb down with respect to Mexico and Canada, the tariff retreat with respect to electronic imports from China, and now Trump setting the stage for a more general tariff retreat with respect to China, the Trump administration has been significantly weakened within its first few months. Not helped by the actions of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) and ICE (Immigrations and Customs Enforcement) that have negatively affected members of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) core constituency. A recent CNBC poll found that Trump had a negative approval rating with respect to his handling of the economy, a first for both his first and second terms in office; after only three months of his second term.

https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/how-ar ... iffs-going

******

A ‘Trump deal’? Juggling war, ‘easy war’ and negotiation

Alastair Crooke

April 24, 2025

The key MAGA issue is not foreign policy, but how to structurally re-balance an economic paradigm in danger of an extinction event.

Trump clearly is in the midst of an existential conflict. He has a landslide mandate. But is ringed by a resolute domestic enemy front in the form of an ‘industrial concern’ infused with Deep State ideology, centred primarily on preserving U.S. global power (rather than on mending of the economy).

The key MAGA issue however is not foreign policy, but how to structurally re-balance an economic paradigm in danger of an extinction event. Trump has always been clear that this forms his primordial goal. His coalition of supporters are fixed on the need to revive America’s industrial base, so as to provide reasonably well-paid jobs to the MAGA corps.

Trump may for now have a mandate, but extreme danger lurks – not just the Deep State and the Israeli lobby. The Yellen debt bomb is the more existential threat. It threatens Trump’s support in Congress, because the bomb is set to explode shortly before the 2026 midterms. New tariff revenues, DOGE savings, and even the upcoming Gulf shake-down are all centred on getting some sort of fiscal order in place, so that $9 trillion plus of short-term debt – maturing imminently – can be rolled over to the longer term without resort to eye-watering interest rates. It is Yellen-Democrat’s little trip wire for the Trump agenda.

So far, the general context seems plain enough. Yet, on the minutiae of how exactly to re-balance the economy; how to manage the ‘debt bomb’; and how far DOGE should go with its cuts, divisions in Trump’s team are present. In fact, the tariff war and the China tussle bring into contention a fresh phalanx of opposition: i.e. those (some on Wall Street, oligarchs, etc.) who have prospered mightily from the golden era of free-flowing, seemingly limitless, money-creation; those who were enriched, precisely by the policies that have made America subservient to the looming American ‘debt knell’.

Yet to make matters more complex, two of the key components to Trump’s mooted ‘re-balancing’ and debt ‘solution’ cannot be whispered, let alone said aloud: One reason is that it involves deliberately devaluing ‘the dollar in your pocket’. And secondly, many more Americans are going to lose their jobs.

That is not exactly a popular ‘sell’. Which is probably why the ‘re-balance’ has not been well explained to the public.

Trump launched the Liberation ‘Tariff Shock’ seemingly minded to crash-start a restructuring of international trade relations – as the first step towards a general re-alignment of major currency values.

China however, wasn’t buying into the tariff and trade restrictions ‘stuff’, and matters quickly escalated. It looked for a moment as if the Trump ‘Coalition’ might fracture under the pressure of the concomitant crisis in the U.S. bond market to the tariff fracas that shook confidence.

The Coalition, in fact, held; markets subsided, but then the Coalition fractured over a foreign policy issue – Trump’s hope to normalise relations with Russia, towards a Great Global Reset.

A major strand within the Trump Coalition (apart from MAGA populists) are the neocons and Israeli Firsters. Some sort of Faustian bargain supposedly was struck by Trump at the outset through a deal that had his team heavily peopled by zealous Israeli-Firsters.

Simply put, the breadth of coalition that Trump thought he needed to win the election and deliver an economic re-balance also included two foreign policy pillars: Firstly, the reset with Moscow – the pillar by which to end the ‘forever wars’, which his Populist base despised. And the second pillar being the neutering of Iran as a military power and source of resistance, on which both Israeli Firsters – and Israel – insist (and with which Trump seems wholly comfortable). Hence the Faustian pact.

Trump’s ‘peacemaker’ aspirations no doubt added to his electoral appeal, but they were not the real driver to his landslide. What has become evident is that these diverse agendas – foreign and domestic – are interlinked: A set-back in one or the other acts as a domino either impelling or retarding the other agendas. Put simply: Trump is dependent on ‘wins’ – early ‘wins’ – even if this means rushing towards a prospective ‘easy win’ without thinking through whether he possesses a sound strategy (and ability) to achieve it.

All of Trump’s three agenda objectives, it turns out, are more complicated and divisive than he perhaps expected. He and his team seem captivated by western-embedded assumptions such as first, that war generally happens ‘Over There’; that war in the post Cold War era is not actually ‘war’ in any traditional sense of full, all-out war, but is rather a limited application of overwhelming western force against an enemy incapable of threatening ‘us’ in a similar manner; and thirdly, that a war’s scope and duration is decided in Washington and its Deep State ‘twin’ in London.

So those who talk about ending the Ukraine war through an imposed unilateral ceasefire (ie, the faction of Walz, Rubio and Hegseth, led by Kellogg) seem to assume blithely that the terms and timing for ending the war also can be decided in Washington, and imposed on Moscow through the limited application of asymmetric pressures and threats.

Just as China isn’t buying into the tariff and trade restriction ‘stuff’, neither is Putin buying into the ultimatum ‘stuff’: (‘Moscow has weeks, not months, to agree a ceasefire’). Putin has patiently tried to explain to Witkoff, Trump’s Envoy, that the American presumption that the scope and duration of any war is very much up to the West to decide simply doesn’t gel with today’s reality.

And, in companion mode, those who talk about bombing Iran (which includes Trump) seem also to assume that they can dictate the war’s essential course and content too; the U.S. (and Israel perhaps), can simply determine to bomb Iran with big bunker-buster bombs. That’s it! End of story. This is assumed to be a self-justifying and easy war – and that Iran must learn to accept that they brought this upon themselves by supporting the Palestinians and others who refuse Israeli normalisation.

Aurelien observes:

“So we are dealing with limited horizons; limited imagination and limited experience. But there’s one other determining factor: The U.S. system is recognised to be sprawling, conflictual – and, as a result, largely impervious to outside influence – and even to reality. Bureaucratic energy is devoted almost entirely to internal struggles, which are carried out by shifting coalitions in the administration; in Congress; in Punditland and in the media. But these struggles are, in general, about [domestic] power and influence – and not about the inherent merits of an issue, and [thus] require no actual expertise or knowledge”.

“The system is large and complex enough that you can make a career as an ‘Iran expert’, say, inside and outside government, without ever having visited the country or speaking the language – by simply recycling standard wisdom in a way that will attract patronage. You will be fighting battles with other supposed ‘experts’, within a very confined intellectual perimeter, where only certain conclusions are acceptable”.


What becomes evident is that this cultural approach (the Think-Tank Industrial Complex) induces a laziness and the prevalence of hubris into western thinking. It is assumed reportedly, that Trump assumed that Xi Jinping would rush to meet with him, following the imposition of tariffs – to plead for a trade deal – because China is suffering some economic headwinds.

It is blandly assumed by the Kellogg contingent too that pressure is both the necessary and sufficient condition to compel Putin to agree to an unilateral ceasefire – a ceasefire that Putin repeatedly has stated he would not accept until a political framework was first agreed. When Witkoff relays Putin’s point within the Trump team discussion, he stands as a contrarian outside the ‘licensed discourse’ which insists that Russia only takes détente with an adversary seriously after it has been forced to do so by a defeat or serious setback.

Iran too repeatedly has said that it will not be stripped naked of its conventional defences; its allies and its nuclear programme. Iran likely has the capabilities to inflict huge damage both on U.S. forces in the region and on Israel.

The Trump Team is divided on strategy here too – crudely put: to Negotiate or to Bomb.

It seems that the pendulum has swung under intense pressure from Netanyahu and the Jewish institutional leadership within the U.S.

A few words can change everything. In an about face, Witkoff shifted from saying a day earlier that Washington would be satisfied with a cap on Iranian nuclear enrichment and would not require the dismantling of its nuclear facilities, to posting on his official X account that any deal would require Iran to “stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program … A deal with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump deal”. Without a clear reversal on this from Trump, we are on a path to war.

It is plain that Team Trump has not thought through the risks inherent to their agendas. Their initial ‘ceasefire meeting’ with Russia in Riyadh, for example, was a theatre of the facile. The meeting was held on the easy assumption that since Washington had determined to have an early ceasefire then ‘it must be’.

“Famously”, Aurelien wearily notes, “the Clinton administration’s Bosnia policy was the product of furious power struggles between rival American NGO and Human Rights’ alumni – none of whom knew anything about the region, or had ever been there”.

It is not just that the team is insouciant towards the possible consequences of war in the Middle East. They are captive to manipulated assumptions that it will be an easy war.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... gotiation/

The other day a fella posited that the Trump gaggle were a bunch of idiots, and a few genuinely are. But perhaps worse, most of them, especially The Supreme Leader, are woefully ignorant. Coupled with arrogance a train wreck waiting to happen.

Trump did not have a 'landslide mandate', rather a marginal mandate, which is circling the drain.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Sat Apr 26, 2025 2:33 pm

The US weaknesses that Trump's tariffs are exposing
April 24, 2025 , 9:54 am .

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American shoppers will see empty shelves in just a few weeks as experts reveal which retailers will be the first to "run out of inventory" (Photo: Getty Images)

Strategic management expert and Columbia Business School professor Rita McGrath told The New York Post that "things that can't be inventoried will start to become scarce in a matter of weeks, maybe not even months." She was referring to the effects of the trade war, declared by Donald Trump, on the society with the highest per capita consumption levels in the world.

As the US president escalated the trade war with Beijing, US companies began reducing or canceling orders. This has resulted in a 43% drop in the volume of goods shipped from China, scheduled to arrive at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach between the week of May 4 and 10, compared to the same period last year, according to container-tracking software provider Vizion.

The decline follows a 57% increase during the week of April 20-26 as importers moved forward with shipments ahead of Trump's steep tariffs on China.

The administration had already signaled a tariff increase to 54% on one of its largest trading partners on April 2, before raising it to 145% on the 9th of the same month. Some items carry tariffs of up to 245%, according to a White House fact sheet .

Nightmare on Empty Shelves Street
Shoppers could start seeing store shelves empty of imported goods shipped from China by summer, with family-owned businesses facing the greatest risk of shortages.

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Title Text:
While US CEOs debate what to do, their stores will not be able to stock their shelves with American-made products.
Credits:
The Sun

Amid the tariff offensive, several companies have expressed concern about a drastic decline in their operations, especially those that import materials or goods from China.

If all the tariffs Trump announced on April 2 go into effect after the 90-day pause, Americans would see an increase in grocery shopping and possibly a change in what's available on the shelves. Although Beijing isn't a major supplier of food to the United States, many of the countries that had tariffs imposed on April 9 (before the pause) are.

Even Chinatowns across the United States are feeling the effects of the escalating tariff war, as prices for household items imported from China, including traditional Chinese medicine products, dried noodles, and jade jewelry, have already begun to rise.

According to The Washington Standard , many Amazon shoppers have been shocked to discover that some of their favorite products have already disappeared. In fact, entire Amazon stores no longer exist. Of course, Amazon isn't the only company facing an unprecedented crisis. Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and other retail chains will have to find new ways to fill their shelves in the coming months.

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Title Text:
Chinese companies selling on Amazon have raised prices in the United States or left the market due to tariff increases imposed by Trump.
Credits:
MarketScreener

If distributors import items to the United States from China right now, upon arrival at the port, they are charged a 145% surcharge on the original purchase price. The majority of this additional tariff cost is passed on to the public.

It's estimated that if the tariff were 10%, only approximately 8% of that additional cost would be passed on to consumers, which wouldn't make a significant difference, especially for lower-cost items like groceries. However, the higher the tariff, the greater the price increase.

Chinese e-commerce giants such as Shein and Temu recently confirmed that the increased costs would be passed on to the public.

Trump is scared by retailer warnings
Some experts, such as Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, have warned that small businesses could be worse off than retail giants given that they would be the first to run out of inventory.

Already, 80 container ships bound for Asia have avoided Chinese ports due to "reciprocal tariffs," but Trump's 90-day pause for all countries except China could only delay the wave of empty shelves, according to Anne Rieke, president of the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), an organization representing the container industry.

It's a tricky balancing act, as importers are wary of holding excess inventory and are concerned that consumer confidence in the United States could continue to decline.

Trump escalated the trade war. A Federal Register notice published by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) on April 17 announced that the government will charge tariffs on all Chinese-built and -owned ships that dock in U.S. ports based on net tonnage, or the amount of goods carried on each voyage.

However, Axios revealed on Wednesday, April 23, that the CEOs of Walmart, Target, and Home Depot privately warned Trump in an Oval Office meeting that supply chains would be disrupted, prices would rise, and store shelves would be empty. As a result, the White House appears to be considering taking a much more flexible stance on tariffs, which sent stocks on U.S. stock exchanges higher.

The draconian measures implemented by the Trump administration seek to subdue China and force it to negotiate from a position of weakness. According to The Associated Press, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted in a private address to JP Morgan that the ongoing trade war with China is not sustainable and that "negotiations with China will be a chore." This official, then the press secretary, and then Trump himself indicated that trade talks with Beijing were imminent, were off to a good start, and would result in a deal with tariffs much lower than the current 145%.

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Title Text:
According to experts, the number of containers shipped to U.S. ports from China will drop dramatically next month.
Credits:
AFP

The tycoon has attempted to use extortion as a mechanism to regulate the global market in favor of large corporations, while his entourage benefits by taking advantage of the market collapse to buy stocks. The United States has an unsupported financial system that has allowed economic growth to be sustained by an exponential increase in total debt and a model based on the purchase of raw materials and cheap merchandise, which cannot be guaranteed in the current global order.

Other analysts have focused on structural issues and remain skeptical about the possibility of US manufacturing replacing Chinese products. There is some hesitation regarding a major wave of factory construction because the risk of being wiped out when a new administration takes office is too great.

Furthermore, the West has gradually transformed into a service-based powerhouse, dedicating few human resources to agriculture, fishing, and mining. Relocalizing manufacturing production is also not a feasible goal, nor is imposing an order in which it completely sets the tone, as it did until recently.

The trade war appears to be heralding the end of the world as Americans know it. A society built around hyperconsumption could fragment amid empty shelves and a decline in the number of containers arriving at its ports.

https://misionverdad.com/globalistan/la ... idenciando

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******

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Behind Trump’s wishful thinking on ‘reindustrialisation’: Why China can do it and the US can’t
We are pleased to republish the following article by Sara Flounders, analysing the Trump administration’s proposed strategy to reindustrialise the US. Sara notes that Trump is not the first president to talk about the need for reindustrialisation; “Reindustrialisation was a huge promise of the Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan administrations in the 1970s and 1980s… Trump promised this eight years ago during his first term and former President Joe Biden promised a vast program to ‘Build Back Better’ and reindustrialise the US economy and modernise infrastructure.”

Action has never lived up to rhetoric, and US manufacturing continues its protracted decline. Trump’s tactic is to essentially pin the blame on China, imposing tariffs as a means of reordering the international economic system and forcing manufacturing to return to the US. “This is wishful or magical thinking”, writes Sara.

“The US, as a capitalist country, really can’t and won’t reindustrialise, because that is a fabulously expensive process involving many years of investment of the capitalists’ own money… Corporate CEOs know they will only survive by maximising profits and guaranteeing hefty returns every quarter. Any attempt to reindustrialise requires a rethinking of, and massive investments in, infrastructure and education needed for such an economy. This takes decades of investments.”

In reality, domestic investment in the US is directed to where private companies can make a quick buck: the military-industrial complex. “Investment money gravitates relentlessly to the highest guaranteed profits, and that is usually the military budget with its huge, guaranteed, multibillion-dollar annual subsidy”. Hence Donald Trump’s record-breaking trillion-dollar Pentagon budget.

China, by contrast, “has a socially planned economy where the greatest sources of wealth in society are owned by the whole nation”. As such, economic strategy and investment policy are controlled by the people, led by the Communist Party. Socialist economic policies and reorganisation of society “have ended dire poverty for 800 million people and transformed one of the poorest countries on the planet into today’s modern marvel”.

Sara concludes:

The interests of workers and oppressed people in the US are bound up with the development of the people of the whole world. Only through increased cooperation and solidarity will our class here develop the ability to solve the enormous global problems.

The ability to rationally plan and invest socially created wealth into rapidly improving technology and infrastructure is decisive. This requires socialism.

This article first appeared on Workers World.
In the 1950s, when Japan and much of Europe was in ruins, the U.S. accounted for 50% of the world’s global production. By the 1960s, this was 35%, declining to 25% by the 1980s. By 2025, the U.S. share of global production had fallen to 12% as production grew elsewhere. (itif.org, Feb. 18)

The capitalist class in the U.S. has grown frantic about this reversal. Its focus is on China, and it blames China for its spectacular level of modern industrial development. In advanced technology manufacturing the future is clear: China holds 45% of the global share to 11% for the U.S.

Higher levels of production need a high-tech infrastructure to move what is produced to global markets. China dominates the global commercial shipbuilding market, producing over 50% of the world’s new ship orders, while the U.S. share has dwindled to less than 1%. China’s shipbuilding industry is backed by a vast industrial base with government support, allowing it to compete on a larger scale than the U.S.

China’s high-speed railroads connect 500 cities and reach through Central Asia into Europe. Meanwhile in the U.S., freight and passenger railroads are in decline.

Can this precipitous decline of U.S. capitalist hegemony be stopped? Can it be reversed? President Donald Trump would have us believe so, but evidence points to a negative answer. The corporate media presents the competition between the U.S. and China as a contention between two nation states, falsely accusing the Chinese government of not playing fair. In reality, China’s advantage arises from the sharp difference in two wholly different forms of organizing society.

Fears of global financial collapse haunt capitalists
The head of the world’s largest hedge fund, billionaire investor Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, recently warned of a global financial system collapse. Trump’s aggressive and erratic tariff policies and ballooning debt could trigger a breakdown of the global financial system. “I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well,” Dalio said on Meet the Press on April 13.

Dalio said the world is at a critical juncture, marked by profound changes in the political, economic and geopolitical order — factors which have historically led to severe crises. The only way, according to Dalio, to get through this crisis for the whole system is to lower the deficit from 7% to 3%. Dalio did not mention lowering the military budget or taxing the billionaires. Thus, he is justifying an all-out attack on the working class.

False promises of reindustrialization
Several past U.S. presidents have promised, as Trump has promised, to reindustrialize the U.S. economy and bring millions of productive manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. Trump promised this eight years ago during his first term and former President Joe Biden promised a vast program to “Build Back Better” and reindustrialize the U.S. economy and modernize infrastructure.

Both Trump and Biden promised job growth. Neither effort moved past the proclamation stage.

The national urgency to reindustrialize and modernize U.S. industry was a source of anxiety and debate in ruling circles long before the balance of trade with China was a factor.

Reindustrialization was a huge promise of the Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan administrations in the 1970s and 1980s. At that time, reindustrialization was a precursor to the so-called “high tech revolution.” It was the first stage of a massive capitalist restructuring that killed untold numbers of good-paying jobs by replacing human beings with robots and automation.

Real wages, adjusted for inflation, have barely budged for most workers and have fallen for the lowest–paid workers since the assault in the 1970s. The pitch in the 1980s — that the increased need for a highly skilled technological workforce would balance out the drop in manufacturing jobs — never materialized. Thanks to technology, the astronomical rise in worker productivity has led to enormous profits but no increase in real wages.

Trump’s magical thinking
On April 2, Trump’s announced tariffs on 150 countries, proclaimed as “Liberation Day,” would purportedly reorder the international economic system and force manufacturing to return to the U.S. This is wishful or magical thinking. It ignores the most basic law of capitalist investment.

As Karl Marx explained 175 years ago in his classic work, “The Communist Manifesto,” the bourgeoisie, i.e. the capitalist class, chases all over the globe for the highest rate of profit, the quickest returns, the cheapest labor. The owning class has no sentimental loyalty to any country, only to securing markets and profits. The productive forces are constantly being revolutionized, modernized and made more ruthlessly efficient.

The tumbling stock market forced Donald Trump to quickly “pause” global tariffs for 90 days, because they so severely impacted U.S. billionaires operating in a global market.

Trump then further raised tariffs on goods imported from China, as China in response imposed higher tariffs on U.S. imports. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports ballooned to 145% on some products, up to 245% on others.

Again, certain U.S. billionaires forced Trump to reverse course. Apple and Nvidia scored major victories with Trump’s decision to exempt many popular consumer electronics imported from China. These include iPhones, iPads, Macs, Apple Watches and AirTags, other smartphones, computers and consumer electronics.

In another reversal, Washington had originally placed fees as high as $1.5 million per port call on all Chinese-built ships. But that order was quietly dropped after a stormy public hearing in which U.S. officials faced a chorus of objections from shipping executives.

The latest executive order — titled Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance — puts forth a grand program but with no amount of grand money to carry it out, except for funding aircraft carriers and destroyers. The order contains no plans for ports or freight carriers.

Military budget – a drain on the economy
As they have done for decades, at each step to boost their bottom line, U.S. capitalists chose the easiest, most immediately profitable path. Investment money gravitates relentlessly to the highest guaranteed profits, and that is usually the military budget with its huge, guaranteed, multibillion-dollar annual subsidy.

In a further effort to halt a free fall in the stock markets, Trump announced the largest military budget in history. “Nobody’s seen anything like it,” he bragged, describing a Pentagon budget that would exceed $1 trillion. This means that the U.S. strategy is still to impose its military domination at the expense of funds for industrial development and infrastructure.

This quick fix won’t solve the problem of building new industries with new jobs, but it throws a bone to the giant military industries.

Federal funding has been pumped into the military for over two generations, to where it now dominates the U.S. economy. This funding provides a huge subsidy and a guaranteed source of profits to the military-industrial complex. But what was a quick fix has become a drag on the economy.

In the same way a drug can initially provide a stimulant and boost energy, with time military spending becomes an addiction that hollows out the rest of society. It adds nothing of real value to the economy and weakens the civilian infrastructure by draining it of resources needed for vital social programs, including those that educate its workforce.

Partly due to 75 years of endless military expenditures, the U.S. economy is in an irretrievable downward spiral. More threats, more sanctions and more tariffs will lead to further deterioration of a declining U.S. economy.

Tariffs are a tax
U.S. tariffs are not paid by the businesses that export to the U.S. Tariffs are paid to the U.S. government by the U.S. corporations that ordered the goods. Most often the cost is passed on to the consumer. It’s true that, with the mega-billions in profits the wealthy have reaped from stolen workers’ labor, the wealthy could afford to eat at least a portion of the cost of tariffs. But they won’t! So tariffs are paid by working people in the U.S. in the form of higher prices.

Despite Trump’s hype, tariffs will not reindustrialize the U.S. economy in a way that brings back any significant number of manufacturing jobs. They won’t reverse the U.S. economy’s increasingly slow growth, long-term decline and the loss of U.S. competitiveness in global markets. Creating a wall of protection to stop the flow of imported goods into the U.S. won’t build new factories here.

In a similar way, U.S. sanctions are a failed form of economic warfare against more than 40 developing and formerly colonized countries comprising one-third of the world’s population. Economic strangulation, the policy of intentionally blocking all trade, credits and loans, creating artificial famines, shortages, hyperinflation, even depriving essential medicines, has had disastrous results.

The tax on millions of imported products will backfire on a deteriorating U.S. economy and harm working people. It is already fueling inflation, eroding international relations, creating a trade war and destabilizing the global economy.

The system is to blame
By moving production overseas for the past four decades, U.S. corporations ruthlessly deindustrialized the U.S. economy under the rallying cry of “free trade.” Their goal was to maximize profits by paying lower wages to overseas workers. Millions of U.S. workers lost jobs, homes, futures and pensions as a result, while overseas workers were superexploited. The average wage of a Mexican autoworker is around $5 an hour; in India it’s about half that amount, compared to a top rate of over $30 an hour for a unionized autoworker in the U.S.

What was called reindustrialization was really deindustrialization. Deindustrialization meant the loss of heavy industry: auto, steel, ship building, railroads and ports. It meant closing factories that produced basic appliances, from washing machines to air conditioners. Every imaginable industry from canneries and food processing to the garment industry moved their highest tech production lines to low-wage countries.

In the 1960s, some 95% of garments worn in the U.S were made domestically. This garment industry has all but disappeared. This loss was part of a broader erosion of the U.S. manufacturing base in which more than 70,000 factories were permanently closed.

Blaming workers in other countries for a process initiated by U.S. capitalists means deliberately opening a totally unwarranted and racist attack.

The U.S. stands as a dominant force in global outsourcing. Approximately 300,000 jobs are outsourced annually. The economic implications are substantial, as the U.S. market alone generates $62 billion of the $92.5 billion in globally outsourced products and services. (Forbes, Oct. 15, 2024)

Many U.S. tariffs target countries that have been U.S. allies. Destabilizing the economies of other countries is a shortsighted and desperate act. But it will still not strengthen the U.S. economy.

Why can’t U.S. capitalists save their own economy?
The U.S., as a capitalist country, really can’t and won’t reindustrialize, because that is a fabulously expensive process involving many years of investment of the capitalists’ own money.

In U.S. corporate law and policy, “shareholder primacy” ordains that it’s a corporate board’s exclusive fiduciary duty to maximize shareholder value — that is, to boost the price of stock and the goodies distributed to shareholders. Implicitly, this means that corporations do not have binding obligations to pursue the good of their workers or the public as a whole.

Corporate CEOs know they will only survive by maximizing profits and guaranteeing hefty returns every quarter. Any attempt to reindustrialize requires a rethinking of, and massive investments in, infrastructure and education needed for such an economy. This takes decades of investments.

Why can China plan while the U.S. can’t?
In sharp contrast to the narrow U.S. view, China plays a worldwide role through international initiatives. This includes a key role in BRICS+, an intergovernmental trade organization with 11 member countries and nine partners; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, with 10 members; and especially China’s Belt and Road Initiative with 140 members.

These trade and development organizations foster greater economic and geopolitical integration, a sharing of technology and coordination for emerging economies.

China has a socially planned economy where the greatest sources of wealth in society are owned by the whole nation. Banking, communication, freight, raw materials, electric power, railroads, ports, etc., are State Owned Enterprises (SOEs).

There are big capitalists in China, but the largest share of the Chinese economy is state-run.

The Chinese Communist Party, with 90 million members, controls this development process. It is rooted in a revolutionary overturn of the corrupt, old feudal society and ending imperialist occupation in 1949. Its economic policies and reorganization of society have ended dire poverty for 800 million people and transformed one of the poorest countries on the planet into today’s modern marvel.

A significant portion of China’s free higher education starts with an emphasis on STEM education — science, technology, engineering and math. Each year the country produces some 3.5 million STEM graduates. This is approximately 10 times as many as those from U.S. educational institutions. In the U.S., 54% of adults read at below sixth grade levels. (Reddit, October 2023)

High levels of skill and advanced education are essential for intervention in today’s world.

Capitalism: an impediment to social progress
Ruthlessly lowering wages, cutting social benefits, infrastructure investments and education is the short-sighted billionaire strategy.

The private ownership of the means of production, the expropriation of all socially produced wealth by a handful of billionaires can mean fabulous wealth for a few, in the short term. However, it is an actual impediment to the ability to modernize industry in today’s global supply chains. U.S. imperialism is incapable of modernizing into today’s global economy, because it is totally chained to an outmoded form of production — capitalism.

U.S. imperialism can threaten to destroy its opponents to impose its demands. This is a powerful threat. But the capitalists will discover that military might not backed up by industrial capacity becomes a paper tiger, growling without substance.

The interests of workers and oppressed people in the U.S. are bound up with the development of the people of the whole world. Only through increased cooperation and solidarity will our class here develop the ability to solve the enormous global problems.

The ability to rationally plan and invest socially created wealth into rapidly improving technology and infrastructure is decisive. This requires socialism.

https://socialistchina.org/2025/04/25/b ... e-us-cant/

******

Trump Blinks, Signaling Pivotal Shift of Global Power Toward Defiant East
Simplicius
Apr 26, 2025

We continue our series on covering the Trump ‘global revolution’ and reordering, with an update as to how things are going, and specifically, the prospects of America’s ‘resurgence’ as some kind of economic and manufacturing powerhouse.

The biggest bellwether in this regard came at the announcement this week that Trump would suddenly be backing off his ‘extreme’ punitive tariff bluff against China.

BREAKING: US Treasury Secretary Bessent says the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and he expects de-escalation, per Bloomberg. The Dow has extended its gain to +1,000 points on the day.

In an interview Trump walked back from the edge of the cliff, explaining that the tariffs will be ‘substantially’ dropped:

Image

China made a quiet mirror reprisal, at least according to CNN’s sources, rolling back many of its tariffs on US semiconductors with a series of unofficial ‘waivers’:

Chen Shaoling, a manager at Zhengnenliang Supply Chain, an import agency, told CNN that she found out on Thursday that tariffs on eight kinds of integrated circuits, covering most semiconductors except for memory chips, had been waived to zero. The discovery was made during a routine custom clearance for her customers, she added.

In many respect’s Trump’s theater is easy to see through: he has repeatedly claimed that he’s spoken to Xi personally, and that members of Trump’s team are in ‘constant contact’ with Chinese counterparts, which the Chinese themselves have denied. When grilled on this, Trump immediately retreats into deflection: rehearsed tangents on how America used to be great under tariffs, and now the world is taking advantage. What the performances appear to be hiding is Trump’s improvisational approach, wherein no real strategy is employed—rather the simple end goal of subjugating the world to US’ will as a blind pursuit, draped in the flag of the same kind of American exceptionalism which once flourished at a time the country was an actual superpower, rather than the fallen, decrepit hegemon it now represents.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/tru ... otal-shift

Blaming 'swamp monsters' for Trump's ego driven incompetence, of which hiring those assholes is but a part, is a copout from just another commentator who was all about Trump a year ago. Whether this misbegotten faith sourced from hatred of the liberal regime or an inability to tell fish from fowl is hard for me to say.
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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Tue Apr 29, 2025 2:16 pm

Donald Trump, Not Barack Obama, is Responsible for Ukraine’s Dramatic Military expansion between 2011 and 2021
28 April 2025 by Larry C. Johnson

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Donald Trump is fond of blaming Barack Obama and Joe Biden for the debacle in Ukraine, but he is wrong. A major share of the blame also lies with Donald Trump because he oversaw the dramatic growth of the Ukrainian military during his first term and, to this day, brags about supplying Ukraine with Javelin missiles. I am no fan of Barack Obama… in fact, I’ve been a staunch critic, but the data on the growth of the Ukrainian military during Trump’s first term is irrefutable.

Let’s start with examining the size of Ukraine’s army in December 2016. This was at the last month of Obama’s time as President.

*Active-duty personnel (2016): About 204,000 military servicemen (by late 2016)​mil.gov.ua. Ukraine’s MoD White Book 2016 reports a total Armed Forces strength of 250,000 people by end-2016, comprising 204,000 servicemen and 46,000 civilian staff​mil.gov.ua.
*Reserve personnel (2016): About 130,000 trained reservists (end-2016)​mil.gov.ua. In 2016, Ukraine formalized an “operational reserve” of combat veterans. Official figures show the size of this reserve grew from ≈2,000 in 2014 to ≈130,000 by year’s end​mil.gov.ua.
*Combined total (active + reserve): ~334,000 personnel. Adding active servicemen (~204k) and reservists (~130k) gives roughly 334,000 military personnel in 2016. (Total Armed Forces strength including civilian staff was 250,000​mil.gov.ua, but the question focuses on uniformed members.)

What happened to Ukraine’s military during Donald Trump’s first term? As of December 2020, Ukraine’s military comprised approximately 298,000 active-duty personnel, according to World Bank data compiled from official sources. This figure includes all branches of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Ground Forces, Air Force, Navy, Air Assault Forces, and Special Operations Forces.​TheGlobalEconomy.com+2Trading Economics+2Macrotrends+2Theodora+2IndexMundi – Country Facts+2

As of January 2021, Ukraine also maintained a substantial military reserve force, estimated at approximately 900,000 reservists. This figure encompasses various categories of reserve personnel, including:​

National Guard Reservists: The National Guard of Ukraine also maintained its own reserve units, contributing to the overall reserve strength. ​

Operational Reserve: Comprising trained individuals who have completed military service and are prepared for rapid mobilization.​

Territorial Defense Forces: A component of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, these forces were in the process of formal organization during this period. Legislation enacted in July 2021 aimed to establish a structured reserve force, which officially came into effect on January 1, 2022. The plan included a core of 10,000 career personnel and an additional 120,000 civilian reservists, totaling 130,000 members for the Territorial Defense Forces. ​GOV.UK+1Wikipedia+1


For the math-challenged out there, this means Ukraine’s total manpower (i.e., active duty + reserves) increased by a factor of 3.6. Whether or not Donald Trump was aware of this is another question. If he knew, then he absolutely shoulders a significant part of the blame for increasing tensions with Russia that led ultimately to the Special Military Operation in February 2022. If Trump did not know, then this is an indictment of his failure to preside over his administration’s national defense policy, and it is a tacit admission that the Deep State was executing its own agenda.

It also is the case that NATO exercises shifted from ostensibly defensive to offensive preparations. The annual military exercise in the Black Sea, i.e., SEA BREEZE, shifted in 2017 from maritime security, anti-piracy, and naval interoperability objectives to amphibious warfare and anti-submarine warfare. To be fair, the anti-submarine warfare focus was initiated in 2016, when Obama was President. It continued under Donald Trump and was accompanied by the addition of amphibious warfare. NATO could no longer pretend that it was just a defensive organization. Amphibious and anti-submarine warfare are offensive operations.

My point is simple… Donald Trump played a bigger role, at least militarily, than Barack Obama in prepping Ukraine to go to war with Russia.

Trump and his national security team continue to ignore Russia’s firm position regarding negotiations to bring a final end to the war in Ukraine. Sergei Lavrov, speaking to a reporter on Sunday writing for Brazil’s major newspaper, O Globo, reiterated the policy Vladimir Putin presented in June 2024:

*Ukraine must lift its “legislative ban on negotiations with Russia.”
*Ukraine cannot become a NATO member and must maintain a neutral and non-aligned status.
*Russia seeks to “overcome the consequences of the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev,” including efforts to legislate and physically destroy everything Russian—language, media, culture, traditions, and canonical Orthodoxy.
*Russia demands international recognition of its sovereign control of Crimea, Sevastopol, the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Lugansk People’s Republic, and the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.
*All of Kiev’s obligations must be legally secured, have enforcement mechanisms, and be permanent.”
*The agenda includes tasks related to the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, lifting sanctions, addressing lawsuits and arrest warrants, and returning Russian assets that are currently “frozen” in the West.
*Moscow is also seeking “reliable security guarantees against threats posed by the hostile actions of NATO, the European Union, and their individual member states along our western borders.

In other words, no permanent ceasefire will occur until these issues are settled. I discussed this matter with Nima and with Judge Napolitano today:
(Video at link.)

https://sonar21.com/donald-trump-not-ba ... -and-2021/

******

Yes, We Knew That ...

... all along.

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Or, as he clarifies:

President Trump shared his thoughts on how his two terms as president have differed, saying in a new interview with The Atlantic that this time around he’s leading “the country and the world.” “The first time, I had two things to do — run the country and survive; I had all these crooked guys,” Trump said in the interview published Monday. “And the second time, I run the country and the world.”

He also runs Crab Nebula and soon will take over Andromeda galaxy. Once Betelgeuse goes supernova--know then that it is due to executive order by Trump. He is very powerful ... To comment on all that is just spoil it.

Russians have a very good publication for this precise situation:

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The title of this highly respectable publication is How to Run the Universe Without Attracting Attention of the Orderlies. A rare, 1958 edition.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/04 ... -that.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Wed Apr 30, 2025 4:14 pm

IS IT TDS OR TTD — RULE BY TEMPORARY TRUMP DICTATORSHIP IN CHARTS, BEFORE THE US SUPREME COURT DECIDES, BEFORE PUTIN TESTS

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

President Donald Trump has pulled a fast one against the US Constitution, if not quite and not yet a coup d’état.

“We have an idea of coups being external military assaults on the government,” a US constitutional law professor has reported. “But self-coups take place within the government, from within the executive branch in particular.”

Without the force required for a putsch – not yet, because the Insurrection Act is in Trump’s reserve powers and may be invoked — the officials advising Trump’s actions claim Article II of the Constitution provides him with “unitary” executive power to freeze or impound funds legislated by the Congress, dismiss state employees, and order the armed services into action. Since February, the President’s lawyers have prepared for the Supreme Court majority Trump appointed in his first term — and will add to if he can soon — to rule that “as this Court observed just last Term, Congress cannot act on, and courts cannot examine, the President’s actions on subjects within his ‘conclusive and preclusive’ constitutional authority”—including the President’s ‘unrestricted power of removal’ with respect to ‘executive officers of the United States whom [the President] has appointed.’ ”

Last week, in a telephone interview with the Atlantic Monthly, Trump announced: “I run the country and the world”. In a follow-up face-to-face interview with the magazine on April 24, Trump told the Kiev regime and its European allies that he was ready to support them but not necessarily to accept that Vladimir Zelensky will continue in office.

He was also telling President Vladimir Putin to accept his terms for ending the war in the Ukraine, and not to tarry at testing his powers to escalate his military support on the Ukrainian battlefield and to add sanctions to stop Russian energy trade between China and India. .

Putin’s reply, announced on Monday (April 28), is a test of Trump’s powers. Declaring a new three-day ceasefire between May 8 and 11, Putin said that “in the event of any violations of the ceasefire by the Ukrainian side, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will give a proportionate and efficient response. The Russian side reiterates its willingness to enter peace talks without preconditions, with a view to eliminating the root causes behind the Ukraine crisis and establishing constructive interaction with international partners.”

In the first sentence, Putin told Trump to prove he can order the Zelensky regime to obey the ceasefire. If he can’t — if there are Ukrainian violations as there have been during the March 18-April 18 energy infrastructure ceasefire and the April 19-20 Easter ceasefire — Putin is saying that Trump’s term sheet, delivered last Friday by Steven Witkoff, is worthless.

In his second sentence, Putin told Trump to address the “root causes” with the NATO allies and other “international partners” by halting the NATO advance eastwards on all fronts, not only in the Ukraine; and by lifting the sanctions imposed on Russia and its partners since 2014. Without Trump’s demonstration that he controls the other powers, Putin is exposing Trump’s peace proposals as the continuation of war by other means.

Putin’s language was also directed domestically to those of his advisors who have recommended he accept what they concede to be Trump’s “bad deal”.

In the Kremlin debate, their reasons are that Russian military forces are unprepared for the offensive to achieve the Kiev regime’s capitulation; that the splitting between the US and the European powers has never been so favourable to Russian interests; that the Russian oligarchs want a return to business as usual; and because the intelligence assessment of Trump is so unstable, there is no telling what war plans Washington will follow in the sequence they have been signalling.

Retired Army General Keith Kellogg, who has retained his presidential appointment because he reflects powerful elements inside Trump’s circle, has dismissed Putin’s response.

“A three-day ceasefire is absurd,” Kellong told the White House outlet Fox News on Tuesday (April 29). “What the president wants is a permanent, comprehensive ceasefire — sea, air, land, infrastructure — for a minimum of 30 days, and then we can extend that.” Referring to what he said is Ukrainian agreement to a 22-point term sheet negotiated with the Europeans last week, Kellogg added: “When it comes to the Ukrainians, I’m very comfortable with where we are at right now…Russia is not winning this war. Russia has not made major advances in the last year and a half. They have not taken the city of Kiev, the capital. They haven’t pushed to the west of the Dnieper River, which is a major obstacle. They haven’t taken Odessa… They haven’t really moved anything. They’ve moved by metres, not by miles…President Trump has it exactly right, and where he wants to get to…The president has this one right on the money, and that’s where we want to go to.”

Before the podcast discussion later today with Nima Alkhorshid and Ray McGovern, follow the seven charts. Take note of the last one – this shows that despite growing disapproval by US voters of the President’s performance in office, most Americans think Trump’s policy towards Russia is “too friendly”. This sentiment is holding strong at all education levels, for blacks and Hispanics, and across all age groups, except for the middle-aged (50-64). The most anti-Russian Americans recorded in this new poll appear to be Harris voters and black protestants.

1. TRUMP’ S 142 EXECUTIVE ORDERS IN THE FIRST 100 DAYS
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Source: https://www.aljazeera.com
For the full texts of each executive order, and the comparisons with predecessor presidents since 1937, see the Federal Register. For year-by-year data and annual averages for executive orders since George Washingbton, see https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/

2. TRUMP’S EXECUTIVE ORDERS BY POLICY AREA

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Click on source to enlarge view:https://www.dw.com/
For more details, read this.

3. PRESIDENTS’ EXECUTIVE ORDERS IN THE FIRST 100 DAYS, 1933-2025

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Source: https://www.npr.org/

4. CONGRESSIONAL LEGISLATION IN THE FIRST 100 DAYS

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Source: For texts of laws and enactment details, see
Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/
For text of laws and enactment details, see: https://www.congress.gov/

5. FEDERAL COURT CHALLENGES TO PRESIDENTIAL ACTIONS IN THE FIRST 100 DAYS
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Source: Maggie Haberman, New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/
For details of each case, the court papers filed, date of filing, the court, and the outcome so far, click to read.

6. FLOW CHART OF LOBBY PROJECTS TO EXECUTIVE ORDERS IN TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
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7A. TRUMP’S DISAPPROVAL RATING GROWS, ESPECIALLY WITH INDEPENDENTS

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Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/

7B: APRIL 18-22, 2025 – WASHINGTON POST-ABC NEWS-IPSOS POLL

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Source: https://docs.google.com/

https://johnhelmer.net/is-it-tds-or-ttd ... more-91504
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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