Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Dec 09, 2024 1:07 pm

Zelensky and Trump in Paris
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 09/12/2024

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The reopening ceremony of Notre Dame after its reconstruction has offered Volodymyr Zelensky the opportunity to meet the future US president in the first meeting since the electoral victory on 5 November. The meeting, described by the Ukrainian leader as “good and productive”, was trilateral, took place at the Elysée and was arranged by the third participant, Emmanuel Macron. According to Axios, Donald Trump finally agreed to participate in the meeting despite his initial reluctance. Shortly before the meeting, it was decided that the French president would be present. “President Trump is, as always, decisive. I thank him. I also extend my thanks to Emmanuel for organizing this important meeting. We all want this war to end as soon as possible and in a fair way. We talked about our people, the situation on the ground and a fair peace. We agreed to continue working together and stay in touch. “Peace through strength is possible,” wrote Volodymyr Zelensky, whose vision of peace through strength may not exactly coincide with that of the US president-elect, in his assessment of the meeting.

The insistence on the supply of long-range missiles to undermine Russian logistics in the rear and make the continuation of the war impossible, the attempted offensive in Kursk in search of an internal destabilization of the Russian Federation, the possibility of new offensives - perhaps in Bryansk - as Oleksandr Syrsky hinted last week and the demand for full membership in NATO show that the Ukrainian aspiration is more similar to the offensive that has managed to overthrow the Syrian government than the negotiation under the threat of massive use of force that Donald Trump seems to be leaning towards. "When we talk about an effective peace with Russia, we must first talk about effective guarantees of peace," wrote Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday, who has always equated guarantees of peace with entry into NATO, a condition that from the Russian point of view is synonymous with the continuation of the war. Only if it sees itself militarily, economically and politically defeated would it be possible for Russia to accept the arrival of the Alliance on its border with Ukraine. In addition to highlighting Ukraine's main demand, Zelensky's words are also a way of rejecting the possibility of a ceasefire along the current front, as Donald Trump's team seems to hope for.

The version of the US president-elect, as is often the case in his peculiar way of confusing reality with fiction, is notably different from that of Volodymyr Zelensky. “600,000 Russian soldiers lie wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and that could last forever,” Trump wrote, using a figure much higher than can be estimated with the available data. “Russia and Iran are both weakened right now, one because of Ukraine and its poor economy, the other because of Israel and its success in the fight,” he continues in his message to highlight why a de-escalation can take place. The argument is questionable considering that Iran has never before responded to Israeli aggression and the Russian economy is growing far more than the American and much of the European economy. The failure of sanctions to destroy the Russian economy is precisely one of the great disappointments of the European Union in this war. “Too many lives are being wasted unnecessarily, too many families destroyed, and if this continues, it could turn into something much bigger, and much worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The world is waiting,” Trump concludes. As usual, the message does not explain how this peace can be achieved. Curious is the mention of China, something that coincides with the Biden administration and the European foreign ministries, especially the German one, which, despite having put economic pressure on Beijing for months, seem to expect that it will be the government of Xi Jinping that will solve the war for them by forcing Russia to accept Western conditions.

In his post , published on the social network he created for himself after being banned from Twitter for encouraging the storming of Congress on January 6, 2020, Trump also states that “Zelensky and Ukraine would like to reach an agreement and stop the madness. They have lost a ridiculous 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations begin.” This part, the most important part of the message, is what has provoked the Ukrainian president’s quick response, who tries to balance rejecting practically everything that Donald Trump wanted to convey with the message and doing so without the future president, on whom it depends that military assistance to Ukraine continues, feeling refuted or rebuked.

Zelensky has quickly and Solomonically resolved the issue of casualties, in order to both agree with the man who will soon be his main supplier of military equipment and to continue to deny that Ukraine is suffering heavy casualties. Last February, a week after the defeat at Avdeevka, one more of the long and costly battles of this war, the Ukrainian president put the number of soldiers killed on the front at 31,000, a figure that has only been taken seriously by the Western media, which are willing to take any statement from Kiev at face value. “Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers killed in combat,” Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday, again giving an evidently underestimated figure for the casualties it has suffered. UAlosses , which tracks the publication of obituaries and announcements of soldiers’ deaths on social media, has found, according to its latest count, at least 65,289 fallen soldiers. To arrive, in an absolutely unrealistic way, at the figure given by Donald Trump, the Ukrainian leader added that “there have been 370,000 cases of medical assistance to the wounded” and specified that half of them have been able to return to the battlefield. To further downplay the importance of Ukrainian casualties, Zelensky puts the number of Russian soldiers killed in the war at 198,000. Mediazona , much more comprehensively than UALosses, has so far listed 82,050, less than half of those claimed by the Ukrainian president and with an imbalance between Ukrainian and Russian casualties notably different from that presented by Kiev.

“Ukrainians want peace more than anyone else,” Zelensky said in response to Trump’s statement that Kiev is ready to reach an agreement with Russia. “Russia brought war to our land. And it is Russia that most wants to prevent the possibility of peace,” added the Ukrainian president, who preferred to forget how the war began in April 2014 with the decree of the anti-terrorist operation against the population of Donbass, who were demanding their political rights and trying to protect themselves – by asking for support from Russia – from the irregular change of government that had overthrown the government they had elected at the polls. To the usual demand for security guarantees, Zelensky added again the idea of ​​a “lasting peace” that “Moscow cannot destroy in a few years.” “The reality of this war is that it cannot end simply with a piece of paper and a few signatures,” Zelensky said in Paris. Both accusations are, in reality, a confession. Ukraine already signed a peace in 2015 that it had always intended to destroy, turning the agreement into a piece of paper and a few signatures . The precedent of this war is that Ukraine is only willing to sign and comply with a peace that fits only its parameters, without taking into account the rights of the population it claims to see as its own. This precedent calls into question any claim that Kiev is willing to reach an agreement with Moscow as Trump claims, an idea that seems to be the product of his imagination and not the result of a non-existent change in Ukraine's position.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/12/09/zelen ... -en-paris/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of December 9, 2024) Main:

The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​the "Center" group of forces amounted to more than 555 servicemen per day;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 455 servicemen per day due to the actions of the "West" group of forces;

- The Russian Armed Forces damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, railway facilities ensuring the delivery of Western equipment to the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 130 fighters as a result of the actions of the "Dnepr" and "North" groups;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 240 servicemen in the area of ​​responsibility of the "South" group;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 150 servicemen per day in the area of ​​responsibility of the Eastern group.

▫️ Units of the "East" group of forces improved the situation along the forward edge, defeated the formations of the Marine Brigade and three territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Konstantinopol, Dneproenergiya, Vremyevka and Novoocheretovatoye of the Donetsk People's Republic. They repelled two counterattacks of the enemy assault groups .

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 150 servicemen, an armored personnel carrier , two vehicles, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Bogdana" , a 155-mm howitzer FH-70 made in Great Britain, a 152-mm gun D-20 and an electronic warfare station .

▫️ Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of the mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriyevka in the Zaporizhia region, Antonovka, Prydniprovske in the Kherson region and the city of Kherson.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 55 servicemen, a combat armored vehicle "Kazak" and five cars.

▫️Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, railway facilities that ensure the delivery of Western equipment to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, assembly and storage sites for unmanned aerial vehicles, fuel depots, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 147 areas .

▫️ Air defense systems shot down 10 US-made HIMARS multiple launch rockets and 36 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

▫️ In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed : 649 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 37,504 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,713 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,500 multiple launch rocket systems, 19,274 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 29,109 special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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'Sadovyi' and the Memory War

ALA scandal revisited. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. More clues about convergence of CIA and Bandera cult. Early days of the memory war in Ukraine.
Moss Robeson
Dec 06, 2024

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Lubomyr Luciuk posing with “Enemy Archives”

This year the “Bandera Lobby” suffered an emotional rollercoaster when the American Library Association (ALA) only temporarily recognized Enemy Archives: Soviet Counterinsurgency Operations and the Ukrainian Nationalist Movement – Selections from the Secret Police Archives as “one of the Best Historical Materials published in 2022 and 2023.” The award was rescinded after Lev Golinkin wrote an article for The Nation, which asked why the ALA is “Whitewashing the History of Ukrainian Nazis.”

Enemy Archives was compiled by a pair of prominent Banderite memory warriors. Lubomyr Luciuk, whose ex-wife leads the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, might not be a sworn member of OUN-B, or the “Banderite” faction of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, which still exists. Luciuk’s co-editor, on the other hand, doesn’t have as much plausible deniability. Volodymyr Viatrovych served as the “memory czar” of Ukraine (2014-19) only after he led the “Center for Research of the Liberation Movement” (TsDVR, Tsentr Doslidzhenʹ Volʹovoho Rukhu), an important OUN-B front group that has embedded its leaders in the state-run Institute of National Memory and the Ukrainian successor of the KGB over the past 10-20 years.

Something I did not mention in my post about “Bojczukgate”: twenty years ago, the OUN-B assembled an international commission to investigate that scandal at the request of “Sadovyi,” the acting “Land Leader of America” in 2004-2005. “Sadovyi” was Dmytro Shtohryn, the longtime chairman of the Ukrainian Library Association of America (1967-85) and the grandfather of Ukrainian studies at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. He co-founded the TsDVR and reportedly chaired the ALA’s Slavic and East European Section for years.

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Dmytro Shtohryn (1923-2019). To honor his memory, the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign created the annual “Dmytro Shtohryn International Ukrainian Studies Conference.”

Over the Fourth of July weekend in 2001, the “Conference of Ukrainian Statehood Organizations” (coalition of OUN-B “facade structures”) in the United States held the 51st annual “Meeting of Ukrainians of America” at a Banderite summer camp in Ellenville, New York. During the Cold War, this was a point of pilgrimage for OUN-B members as the home of the oldest Banderite monument in the world, which remains a quasi-religious site for some. The 2001 “Meeting of Ukrainians” was dedicated to the 10th anniversary of Ukrainian independence, and the 60th anniversary of the “Act of Restoration of the Ukrainian State” on June 30, 1941, when the OUN-B tried to establish a pro-Nazi government in German-occupied western Ukraine.

The Banderites held a panel discussion about these anniversaries, in the presence of youngsters from an ongoing “educational” camp named after Dmytro Dontsov (1883-1973), the grandfather of genocidal Ukrainian fascism. Walter Zaryckyj, executive director of the Center for US-Ukrainian Relations (CUSUR, est. 2000), which was the latest OUN-B front group in the United States, moderated the discussion. The main panelist was Andriy Haidamakha, the new OUN-B leader from Belgium, who spent the past decade running the Kyiv bureau of the US-funded “Radio Svoboda.” At least three speakers came from (western) Ukraine:

Oleksandr Sych, the future ideologist of the far-right “Svoboda” party, which was established in 2004 after a nationalist rebranding of the neo-Nazi “Social-National Party.” In 2003, Sych spoke at a CUSUR conference in Washington. He returned in 2014 as a Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine.

Ihor Symchych, secretary general of the OUN-B’s international Ukrainian Youth Association. His father, Myroslav Symchych, a veteran of the OUN-B’s Ukrainian Insurgent Army and reportedly a war criminal, lived to be 100 hundred years old. At 99, Zelensky decreed him a “Hero of Ukraine” (2022).

Bohdan Lavonyk, a professor from Ternopil. In 2001, according to his Ukrainian Wikipedia page, he completed an internship at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC).

The UIUC’s Dmytro Shtohryn, or “Sadovyi,” also spoke about that “week of independence,” as someone who actually “witnessed the events of June 30, 1941 in Chortkiv, Ternopil Oblast.” In 1941, Shtohryn turned 18 years old. German troops occupied the small city of Chortkiv in early July, which had several thousand Jews. According to the website “My shtetl: Jewish towns of Ukraine,” in the coming days, “Ukrainians and Germans massacred about 300 Jews in the courtyard of the local prison.” At some point, there was a pogrom, likely led by Banderites. Who knows if Shtohryn might have participated?

During the war, the Shtohryn family provided shelter to members of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, the paramilitary arm of OUN-B that hunted Jews and waged a massive ethnic cleansing campaign against the Polish population in western Ukraine. In 1945, Dmytro turned 22, in Bavaria. He settled in a Displaced Persons camp in Augsburg, where the OUN-B created the first branch of the Ukrainian Youth Association (CYM, Спілки Української Молоді) and he became its president. At the time, the Banderites considered WW3 to be imminent, but the Cold War was just getting started. Dmytro Shtohryn arrived to the United States on a warship.

Shtohryn had also been an organizer in the scouting organization Plast, in which he made a group named after OUN founder Yevhen Konovalets (that still exists). By the early 1950s in Minnesota, he led a branch of “TUSM,” the radical student organization named after Mykola Mikhnovsky, who coined the slogan “Ukraine for Ukrainians!” The Banderite-led TUSM, another international organization, now defunct, included members of CYM and Plast, which were more or less rivals during the Cold War. To have been a prominent member of all three groups was a rare feat.

Shtohryn began his higher studies at the new Ukrainian Free University in Augsburg, which later relocated to Munich. By the end of the 1950s, he completed a master’s degree at the University of Ottawa, specializing in Ukrainian literature and writing a thesis about the poetry of OUN-M leader Oleh Olzhych. He also earned a bachelor’s degree in library science, and in 1960 started to work as a librarian at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. Soon he discovered a passion for promoting Ukrainian studies. In 1964, he attended the first national meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies, and received credit as “one of the organizers of the American Library Association’s Slavonic Section.”

It didn’t take long for Shtohryn to get busy ordering Ukrainian publications for Urbana-Champaign. The director of the school’s new Russian, East European, and Eurasian Center (REEEC) supported his Ukrainization of their Slavic library. “Such centers were generously funded by the federal government and could to afford to buy even very expensive literature,” Shtohryn recalled in 2006. “When I arrived, the library had about 10,000 Slavic and Russian books. Today there are already almost 750-800 thousand of them. Among them … the library has about 70,000 Ukrainian publications in originals and microfilms.”

In the 1970s, Dmytro Shtohryn organized “TUSM alumni” and represented them in the U.S. executive board of the Mikhnovsky student association. He also became a full professor with academic tenure. Shtohryn subsequently got involved with the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute (HURI). He chaired a panel at one of their events in 1978. The following year, Shtohryn joined the Permanent Conference of Ukrainian Studies at HURI, made the first speech at a three-day HURI symposium, and led a Harvard conference featuring Soviet dissident Valentyn Moroz, who turned out to be not just a far-right nationalist but a Banderite attack dog in the Ukrainian community.

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A month before OUN-B leaders Yaroslav and Slava Stetsko visited the White House in 1983, the UIUC held a conference on Ukrainian history. Dmytro Shtohryn chaired the organizing committee. In 1984 the UIUC launched a Ukrainian Research Program (URP) chaired by Shtohryn, to “function as an autonomous institution with its own executive committee, research advisory council, and associates.”

Starting in 1984, Dmytro Shtohryn co-organized an annual “Conference on Ukrainian Subjects” within the framework of the URP and an REEEC program. In the 1990s, these events turned into Ukrainian academic conferences, and the organizers made an effort to invite young scholars from Ukraine that used the Ukrainian language “at home, in schools and in their personal lives.” By the early 21st century, some up and coming OUN-B members in Ukraine (Volodymyr Viatrovych and Oleksandr Sych) even participated in these annual events. It was said that Shtohryn typically “carried the whole burden” of organizing them.

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James Mace (1952-2004), who led the 1980s U.S. Commission on the Ukraine Famine, participated in some of Shtohryn’s conferences, and worked as a “post-doctoral fellow in modern Ukrainian studies” at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (1991-93) just before he moved to Ukraine.
The 1985 Conference on Ukrainian Subjects was dedicated to World War II, and took place as the Department of Justice belatedly hunted for Nazi war criminals in the United States, with much of its focus on Ukrainian collaborators. The organizing committee included Taras Hunczak (1932-2024), a professor at Rutgers University. Hunczak, a former courier for the Ukrainian Insurgent Army at just 10 years old, was the editor in chief of a major monthly journal published by the Prolog Research Corporation—a CIA front group that I introduced in “Boychukgate.” Prolog was affiliated with an OUN faction of ex-Banderites led by Mykola Lebed, someone that the CIA shielded from prosecution. He ultimately passed the torch to Roman Kupchinsky, a Ukrainian American CIA officer.

In his memoir, Hunczak recalled that at the end of the Cold War, he accompanied the Prolog president (Kupchinsky) to a meeting with George Soros to propose that the billionaire’s foundation open an office in Kyiv. Soros allegedly shot down their proposal: “Ukrainians are antisemites.” Hunczak, a professional whitewasher of Nazi collaborators, was apparently just the man to convince him to give Ukraine a chance. Today, Ukrainian civil society activists (including far-right nationalists) are labeled “Sorosites,” because they are so dependent on grants from the Soros foundation and western-funded “non-governmental” organizations.

In 2003,https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1 ... 0x366.jpeg the University Press of America published Ukraine: The Challenges of World War II, a collection of papers presented at the Conferences on Ukrainian Subjects. Taras Hunczak prepared the book with Dmytro Shtohryn. At least a few of the contributors (including Hunczak) were associated with Prolog. Myroslav Prokop, a former president of this CIA front group, worked as an editor at the OUN’s information bureau in 1930s Berlin. In mid-to-late 1944, he joined a “task force” that the OUN-B leadership in Ukraine dispatched “to establish contact with the Western allies,” according to historian Grzegorz Rossolinski-Liebe. Prokop wrote chapter 5: “Ukrainian Anti-Nazi Resistance, 1941-1944.”

Peter Potichnyj, allegedly the youngest fighter in the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), wrote chapters 6, 11, and 12. A 1966 memo by David Murphy, head of the CIA’s “Soviet Russia” division, said that “Potichnyj collaborated with a cover organization under one of our projects until 1961.” This was probably a reference to something connected to Prolog. According to historian Per Rudling, “Potichnyj was affiliated with the CIA.”

By the 1980s, a pair of North American UPA veteran societies—one affiliated with OUN-B, and the other with CIA-funded ex-Banderites—started to publish “Litopys UPA” (Chronicle of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army), a multi-volume “documentary history” of the Banderite paramilitary force.

During the Cold War, according to Rudling, this project was funded by the CIA, and Potichnyj was one of its directors. Meanwhile, the CIA and its Prolog crew smuggled thousands of pieces of literature to Ukraine, including texts such as “Litopys UPA” that romanticized the long defeated Banderite “liberation movement.” Some number of far-right Ukrainians in the 1990s were enchanted by the “forbidden history” of Ukrainian nationalism in the twilight of the Soviet Union. It’s unclear how effective the CIA was at reaching Soviet Ukrainians or planting the seeds of a nationalist revival in that period.

In the 21st century, the OUN-B has apparently inherited the Litopys UPA project with help from the Center for Research of the Liberation Movement (TsDVR). Dmytro Shtohryn was among the OUN-B leaders that co-founded this pivotal front group in 2002, not long after the rise of Andriy Haidamakha and the Center for US-Ukrainian Relations. That year, Shtohryn served on the steering committee of CUSUR’s main roundtable event. He did the same for the first one in 2000. The TsDVR put the Banderites at the front line of the memory war in Ukraine, and CUSUR helped put them on the map in Washington. “Sadovyi” had a hand in the creation of these OUN-B “facade structures,” which were both established at the dawn of the 21st century, when it seems that OUN-B was trying to win over new Western backers.


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Volodymyr Viatrovych was the first TsDVR director until 2008, when he got put in charge of the Security Service of Ukraine archives. He was trusted with the new Banderite center at the age of 25 years old. In 1999, Viatrovych led a special summer camp dedicated to the memory of Stepan Bandera. In 2003, when Hanczuk and Shtohryn’s “Challenges of World War II” book came out, the new TsDVR director took part in that year’s Conference on Ukrainian Subjects.

During the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine (November 2004 - January 2005), Dmytro Shtohryn chaired the OUN-B “Land Leadership of America,” and Viatrovych got involved with the “Pora!” youth group. (After they split in 2005, Viatrovych became a leader of “Black Pora.”) Olga Onuch, a professor of Ukrainian politics at the University of Manchester, cited Viatrovych when she wrote about the first “Maidan revolution,”

the [historical] OUN is highly respected among many Ukrainian activists for their ability to activate and coordinate a complex network of related SMOs [Social Movement Organizations] in different regions of Ukraine, for their defence of Ukrainian language and culture, but not for their use of violent tactics. Viatrovych explained, “the influence of the OUN…on activists today is undeniable…we even used some of their organizational techniques, of ‘sotky’ when we coordinated activities in 2003/04, but we adhered to non-violent repertoires guided by liberal values.”

After the victory of the “Orange Revolution” — a presidential election do-over in which the pro-western candidate Viktor Yushchenko defeated the “pro-Russian” Viktor Yanukovych, putting the first ally of the “Bandera Lobby” into power — the State Department started to fund the OUN-B’s Ukrainian Youth Association in Ukraine via the U.S. Agency for International Development. Meanwhile, a Waffen-SS veteran (Orest Vaskul) chaired the OUN-B “Land Leadership in Ukraine.” By this point, lingering public criticism of the Banderites from the Prolog crowd seems to have dissipated. Perhaps the annual conferences organized by Dmytro Shtohryn and Walter Zaryckyj put their minds at ease.

In the spring of 2007, a large part of the Prolog archives — more than 10,000 pages of documents that belonged to Mykola Lebed, Bandera’s wartime deputy and postwar CIA-backed rival — were transferred to the Center for the Research of the Liberation Movement in Lviv. The TsDVR came to an agreement with Petro Sodol, another young UPA veteran affiliated with Prolog and “Litopys UPA,” who also fought in Vietnam. He presented a “paper on the Ukrainian Insurgent Army in Soviet sources” at the 1989 Conference on Ukrainian Subjects, which featured some speakers affiliated with the U.S.-funded Ukrainian outfits, Prolog and Radio Svoboda. By 2007, Litopys UPA worked with the State Archive of the Security Service of Ukraine.

To celebrate the fake 65th anniversary of the UPA and the 100th anniversary of the birth of UPA leader Roman Shukhevych, in 2007 the TsDVR prepared a “unique photo exhibit about the UPA, consisting of 22 banners (approx. 6 by 2.5 feet), with nearly 500 photos showing its history.” The U.S. premiere of this exhibit took place over the Fourth of July weekend at the Banderite summer camp in Ellenville, New York, which has larger than life busts of Bandera and Shukhevych as part of its “Heroes’ Monument.” According to the Ukrainian Weekly newspaper, “This photo exhibit will also be shown at various universities, the United Nations, the U.S. Congress, major libraries, as well as other locations in order to acquaint the broader public with the history of the UPA.”

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“Litopys UPA” leaders at the Shukhevych centennial commemoration in Lviv, 2007. On the right, Mykola Posivnych, an OUN-B member, and president of the Litopys UPA Foundation in Lviv, according to whom the UPA “never imprisoned or executed any Jewish civilians.” In the middle, Peter Potichnyj, longtime editor in chief of Litopys UPA, who has “argued that Jews, killed by UPA, were killed because they were communists” (according to Per Rudling).

In New York City, Bohdan Harhaj chaired an “All-Community National Committee” to commemorate the 65th UPA and 100th Shukhevych anniversaries. Harhaj led the Ukrainian American Youth Association, which owns the Banderite camp in Ellenville, New York, and he also chaired the OUN-B “Land Leadership of America” (after Shtohryn). The events in Manhattan included a conference at the Shevchenko Scientific Society featuring Taras Hunczak, Peter Potichnyj, and Dmytro Shtohryn, and a presentation of the TsDVR photo exhibit (“UPA — The Army of Immortals”) at the Ukrainian Museum. According to the Ukrainian Weekly, “The All-Community National Committee has undertaken efforts to display the photographs in the U.S. Congress, military academies and universities.”

Later that year, Yushchenko posthumously awarded the “Hero of Ukraine” title to Roman Shukhevych, a Nazi collaborator and major ethnic cleanser. This might have been the ultimate goal of the Banderites when they prioritized the UPA and Shukhevych anniversaries in 2007—to put pressure on the president to follow through with this controversial decision, and/or to lay the groundwork for him.

After Volodymyr Viatrovych became the director of the State Archive of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU, Sluzhba Bezpeky Ukrayiny), this agency launched a website, or “Digital Archives Center,” including online collections of documents about the OUN, UPA, and the 1932-33 “Holodomor.” Viatrovych also chaired a working group that the SBU established “to study the activities of the OUN and UPA,” and he served as an advisor to SBU director Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, a friend of the Banderites who participated in numerous CUSUR conferences.

By 2009, when Ukrainian nationalists commemorated the 100th anniversary of Stepan Bandera’s birth, and the 50th anniversary of his assassination, the first director of the state-run Institute of National Memory reportedly “tasked his colleagues to restore the good name of Stepan Bandera.” (His deputy, Roman Krutsyk, was a prominent OUN-B member.) Volodymyr Viatrovych said that “the logical move … would be granting him the Hero of Ukraine title.” The Banderites got their wish shortly before Yushchenko left office in 2010, after he failed to even reach the second round of the presidential election.

It was in 2009 that the SBU and TsDVR turned a former prison in Lviv into a nationalist museum. The SBU owned (and technically managed) the building, with the main office of the TsDVR located upstairs. Although Ukrainian nationalists and Nazis killed Jews here in 1941, at the Banderite-run Lonsky prison museum, “Jewish suffering is omitted.” In a 2015 essay about the museum, the historian John-Paul Himka called it “a place where Jewish memory is erased as well as the memory of crimes against Jews perpetrated by Ukrainian nationalists.”

The museum exhibition glides lightly over the Nazi occupation. The little it has to say highlights the suffering of OUN members. The information for visitors has nothing at all to say about the persecution of Jews at Lontsky St. prison during the war, although a small amount of information is available on the museum website. Most important, the museum glorifies OUN without mentioning or admitting that the militia associated with OUN was deeply involved in murders and other atrocities against Jews on the very premises of the Lontsky St. prison and in the other Lviv prisons in July 1941.

Himka went on to write,

The museum’s presentation of history, which is at variance with the results of professional historical research, is able to be sustained not only because of regional support in Ukraine and formerly because of Ukrainian government patronage, but also because of a strong and mutually reinforcing alliance with OUN in the North American diaspora. The nationalists in the diaspora use their connections with and influence upon ethnic academic outposts, Canadian politicians, and the press to reinforce the message of the Lontsky St. museum and to make deflective Holocaust negationism appear respectable.

Himka also noted that the museum displayed (“with little to no commentary”) antisemitic newspaper clippings from the Nazi collaborationist Ukrainian press — including one about Dmytro Shtohryn’s hometown of Chorktiv.

Another clipping narrated that in Chorktiv the NKVD arrested many Ukrainians immediately after the outbreak of the German-Soviet war on the basis of denunciations by "local Jewish communists." "To give the complete picture, it must be pointed out that after the NKVD fled from Chortkiv Jewish-communist squads spent an additional three days rampaging in the city, shooting at the innocent population and sowing terror right and left."

At that year’s 26th (and final) Conference on Ukrainian Subjects, the Ukrainian Jewish poet Moisei Fishbein presented a paper on “The Jewish Card in Russian Special Operations Against Ukraine.” Per Rudling has described Fishbein one of “the most successful popularizers of the nationalists’ narrative, denying the UPA’s anti-Jewish violence.” Among other things, Fishbein (and the TsDVR) promoted the fraudulent autobiography of a fictitious Jewish woman, I Am Alive Thanks to the UPA. In his 2009 speech at Dmytro Shtohryn’s conference, Fishbein also claimed that Roman Shukhevych and his wife saved a Jewish girl during the Holocaust. His speech became a favorite “scholarly” source for Ukrainian nationalists to cite, such as Volodymyr Viatrovych when he argued that “generally there are many proofs to show that Ukrainian nationalists provided help and shelter to persecuted Jews.”

What the historian Georgiy Kasianov has called Ukraine’s “internal memory war” heated up in 2010, starting with Yushchenko’s parting shot: the Hero of Ukraine award for Stepan Bandera. Not long after Yushchenko left office, and his “pro-Russian” rival Yanukovych replaced him, the Donetsk District Administrative Court overturned the outgoing president’s controversial declaration. It soon did the same for Shukhevych’s Hero of Ukraine title. In the meantime, the new Education Minister became a boogeyman of the Banderites. As Kasianov wrote in his 2022 book, Memory Crash: Politics of History in and Around Ukraine, 1980s–2010s,

The new minister, Dmytro Tabachnyk, was well known for his negative attitude toward nationalized history and for his loyalty to the Soviet nostalgic version. He gleefully shocked the public with his statements and appraisals of the past in which he denounced and ridiculed Ukrainian nationalism. In an April 2010 interview with the BBC, he declared that the textbooks of Ukrainian history are written from an ethnocentric position and must, therefore, be revised and rewritten from an anthropocentric position. … Tabachnyk used his position to publicly criticize the national/nationalist memory narrative and largely contributed to the development of the internal memory war in Ukraine.

In September 2010, after a change in the leadership of Ukraine’s internal security service, the SBU briefly detained one of its own employees, Ruslan Zabily, the former TsDVR director who ran the Lonsky prison museum. “Over the next week, Zabily became probably the most popular figure in news feeds and on political talk shows,” according to Kasianov. “Latest on Ukraine’s history wars: Orange fighter down,” reported openDemocracy. “SBU under fire for using KGB-style tactics,” said the Kyiv Post. Volodymyr Viatrovych was apparently also ousted from the SBU, after which he became a research fellow at the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute to familiarize himself with its portion of the Mykola Lebed (Prolog) archives. The Banderite memory warriors would be back with a vengeance after the next “Maidan revolution.”

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From left to right: Peter Potichnyj, CIA-affiliated UPA veteran; Orest Steciw, Canadian Banderite leader; and Ruslan Zabily, former TsDVR director—at a Canadian celebration of the fake 70th anniversary of UPA (2012)

In 2014, Dmtryo Shtohryn’s chairmanship of the UIUC Ukrainian Research Program ended and it was replaced with a Ukrainian Studies Program. Meanwhile, OUN-B member Serhiy Kvit, an enthusiast of the fascist ideologue Dontsov, had replaced Dmytro Tabachnyk as the Education Minister. Five years later, as the president of the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy (NaUKMA), Kvit mourned the death of Shtohryn, “the librarian of the Ukrainian movement” and an “honored member of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists.”

The polemical context of Prof. Shtohryn’s annual conferences, ongoing lively discussions and exchanges of thoughts and ideas were vitally important for Ukrainian intellectual life. The meetings focused on different topics: the participants discussed the future of Ukraine and the Ukrainian diaspora, presented the results of sociological research, discussed various issues of Ukrainian academic and political life, as well as topics of history, literature, the arts and economy. At one of these conferences, Viacheslav Briukhovetsky presented his project to revive the Kyiv Mohyla Academy, which was later successfully implemented and today is the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy.

Serhiy Kvit said they first met in 1995, when he studied at the Ukrainian Free University in Munich, and Shtohryn lectured there. According to Kvit, “We immediately began to communicate not only as a student and professor, but also as people who want to change something in this life. In particular, we collaborated on the journal Ukrainian Problems (1991-2003), founded by the late Zinoviy Krasivsky. To support the journal, Prof. Shtohryn engaged Ukrainian scholars from the United States and Canada. In parallel, Prof. Shtohryn co-founded the Center for Liberation Movement Studies headed by Volodymyr Viatrovych.”

Krasivsky was the OUN-B “Land Leader in Ukraine” at the time of independence, who co-founded the far-right nationalist party “State Independence of Ukraine.” In the 1990s, Kvit joined the paramilitary organization “Tryzub” named after Stepan Bandera, which the OUN-B established. According to the Ukrainian media outlet Zaborona, “Since its inception, ‘Tryzub’ activities have been closely linked with the Security Service of Ukraine and specifically with its future head Valentyn Nalyvaichenko.” The OUN-B’s break-up with Tryzub might have been a precondition for turning over a new leaf in Washington at the turn of the 21st century. Ex-Prolog associate Taras Kuzio (from England, which he described as an “OUN-B stronghold”) even wrote a pair of letters to the editor of New Jersey’s Ukrainian Weekly newspaper in 2001, seeking clarity about the OUN-B’s relationship with Tryzub.

In the spring of 2019, about four months before Shtohryn died, the Maidan Museum in Kyiv hosted the first TsDVR congress since December 2013. Volodymyr Viatrovych and Serhiy Kvit joined Ivan Patrilyak, the Banderite dean of history at the Taras Shevchenko National University in Kyiv, to make “guest” speeches. The alleged “Land Leader in Ukraine” read some words from OUN-B’s international chairman Stefan Romaniw in Australia. Steve Bandera, the Canadian grandson of you-know-who, brought greetings from their friends at the Ucrainica Research Institute in Toronto, another OUN-B front, which is a co-owner of the Banderite headquarters in Kyiv.

Reports summarized the work of the OUN-B memory warriors since the “Revolution of Dignity,” such as Andriy Kohut, who remains the director of the SBU archive almost five years later. On February 24, 2022, Kohut lectured students at the University of Illinois Chicago on memory politics in Ukraine. “The fact that Putin mentioned decommunization in his speech before the invasion confirms that Russia is very afraid and tries to avoid the path of rethinking the Soviet past that Ukraine has chosen,” Kohut later told the U.S.-funded Radio Svoboda.

Last year, Lubomyr Luciuk, the Canadian co-editor of Enemy Archives, and a professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, said at a New York City conference organized by the Banderites that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gave them “the best chance ever to tell our story … so now is the time for us to win the memory war.” His co-editor’s wife recently complained that the American Library Association retracted its award for their book after “one article by a pro-Russian author.” Around that time, Luciuk gave an interview to promote his book, and said that Stepan Bandera’s son, Andriy, “got me interested in writing” after they met in Canada.

In April 2024, Ottawa Citizen journalist David Pugliese reported, “American Library Association pulls award for RMC professor’s book” after “a Jewish organization and Holocaust scholars … raised concerns it whitewashes Nazi collaborators in Ukraine.” Pugliese noted that Luciuk’s co-editor, Volodymyr Viatrovych, “shared a social media response in which a Ukrainian pointed out that [Lev] Golinkin is a Jew and a parasite. That same account also accused another Ukrainian Jew, who has spoken out about the history of Nazi collaborators, of being a parasite.” Pugliese was referring to posts by Daria Hirna, who doesn’t appear to be an OUN-B member, but is a former TV presenter that became the new director of the OUN-B’s Center for Research of the Liberation Movement in December 2021.

Chris Alexander, the Conservative politician who recently smeared Pugliese as a Soviet/Russian agent and claimed to substantiate his accusations with Ukrainian KGB documents, might have had some help from the editor(s) of Enemy Archives. Last year, Alexander promoted a National Post op-ed from Lubomyr Luciuk, which was really an excerpt from his new book with Viatrovych. Luciuk emphasized that before invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin “specifically referred to Banderivtsi, members of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) headed by Stepan Bandera,” and says that “we certainly did not anticipate this … being deployed as an excuse for starting a large-scale war in 21st-century Europe.”

The Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security, a Ukrainian government organization established by the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy, weighed in on the ALA scandal two days before Pugliese’s article: “How Academic Freedom and Ukrainian History are under attack, on the example of one dirty campaign.” This government organization blamed that “part of the Western academic environment, which consistently promotes the thesis about ‘Ukrainian Nazism’.” According to this “leading channel of government communication about the war in Ukraine,”

In reality, there are no testimonies and documentary evidence that would confirm the cooperation of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) with the Nazis in the mass murder of Jews. … There is also no confirmation of the words that the Ukrainian Insurgent Army as an organized force participated in the murder of Jews. … Unfortunately, the KGB special operations gave results, and now the history of the Ukrainian national liberation movement became one of the most mythologized pages of the Ukrainian history.

The Centre for Strategic Communication also took aim at Ukrainian Jewish leader Eduard Dolinsky, who I’m guessing is the other person that Daria Hirna called a “parasite.”

Special attention should be paid to Golinkin’s references to Eduard Dolynskyi, who presents himself as the head of the “Ukrainian Jewish Committee”, but does not really represent the Jewish community of Ukraine. Instead, he is well known for spreading fakes about the growth of antisemitism in Ukraine and the glorification of Nazism.

I agree that “part of the Western academic environment” deserves more blame for the memory war, as a result of which the history of World War II “became one of the most mythologized pages of Ukrainian history,” and far-right nationalists are increasingly empowered as Ukraine’s thought police.

https://banderalobby.substack.com/p/sad ... memory-war

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"Ukraine wants to make peace"
December 8, 12:00

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Trump called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and the start of peace talks.
According to Trump's statement, Ukraine is eager to make peace with Russia.
Ukrainian media report that Trump's entourage demanded that the cocaine Fuhrer rescind his decree banning negotiations with Russia.

The conditions under discussion revolve around a worsened version of the Istanbul agreements for Ukraine.

1. Minus 4 regions (there were 2) - the question of Kherson and Zaporozhye is up in the air.
2. Ukraine's refusal to join NATO (the Russian Federation demands a complete refusal, the US offers to postpone it for 10-20 years)
3. Some security guarantees from the West and Russia
4. An exchange of prisoners of war for all. The return of the dead.
5. Denazification (???)
6. Demilitarization (a ban on the deployment of foreign military bases, a reduction in the army and strike weapons, military exercises only with the consent of Russia)

And so on.

Russia is not satisfied with a simple freeze along the front line.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9539970.html

Terrorist attack in Donetsk. 09.12.2024
December 9, 11:25

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As a result of the terrorist attack in Donetsk, the former head of the colony in Elenovka, Vitaly Yevsyukov, was killed.
An explosive device went off under the bottom of his SUV. Yevsyukov died, his wife's leg was torn off, she is now in hospital.

The Yelenovskaya colony became widely known for the fact that in 2022, as a result of shelling of the colony from the HIMARS MLRS, about 50 Azov militants were killed there, who were captured in Mariupol and some of them started to inject drugs. Which actually prompted the Nazis to eliminate the witnesses. Well, and then the blame for the shelling was put on Russia, as if it was shelling itself. (Video at link.)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9541179.html

Google Translator

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On NATO training in the Black Sea
December 8, 2024
Rybar

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While the world community's attention is focused on Syria , the North Atlantic Alliance continued activities for its air defense systems. A training exercise on protecting airspace from enemy strikes — Russia — was held over Romania.

The Russian Aerospace Forces' actions were imitated by Turkish F-16C/Ds, which were pretending to strike Romanian air bases and penetrate their airspace. They were countered by Spanish and Greek fighters.

Detection and guidance were carried out by the LTR-25 radar installed in Romania several months ago . This is a station for identifying air targets, which in range reaches the Crimean Peninsula .

Turkish planes specially flew into the western part of the Black Sea , pretending to attack from the Crimean side.

NATO needs such training to study the capabilities of its own defense systems and to keep pilots in good shape while operating in various anti-Russian missions.

But, in addition to this, under the pretext of training, NATO is studying the reaction of our air defense and aviation units. The LTR-25 radar, as well as the onboard equipment of the aircraft, were working at full capacity, assessing our forces in Crimea.

https://rybar.ru/o-natovskoj-trenirovke-v-chernom-more/

Google Translator

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Russia Matters: Trump Team’s Ukraine Peace Plan: Territorial Concessions, No NATO Membership
December 8, 2024
Russia Matters, 12/6/24

5 Things to Know
Advisers to Donald Trump are floating proposals to end the Ukraine war that would cede large parts of the country to Russia for the foreseeable future and take NATO membership for Ukraine off the table, according to a Reuters analysis of statements and interviews with several people close to the U.S. president-elect, including his incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg. Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine must find diplomatic solutions to regaining occupied territories and suggested he may be open to negotiations by sending his chief of staff Andrei Yermak to Washington to meet with members of Trump’s team such as JD Vance, Mike Waltz and a representative for Kellogg. While Yermak has so far made no public comments on the outcome of these meetings, Ukraine’s foreign minister repeated his government’s stance that Kyiv would reject any security guarantees other than NATO membership. Just as Ukraine’s territorial losses and manpower shortages may make Zelenskyy more amenable to negotiating a deal with Putin, the latter’s knowledge of these losses and shortages may make him less willing to pursue such a deal for as long as his forces keep capturing land in Ukraine and retaking land in Russia’s Kursk region. It is also difficult to imagine how any mediator of talks between Ukraine and Russia can accommodate Ukraine’s demands for NATO membership given the persistent opposition of some of the alliance’s members, such as Hungary.*
In the past month (Nov. 1–Dec. 4), the Russian forces made a net gain of 354 square miles in Ukraine, which is about the size of the city of Dallas, Texas. This gain includes 95 square miles Russia gained in the past week, which is slightly larger than the size of Boston, Mass., according RM staff’s Dec. 4, 2024, estimate based on data provided for that period by the Institute for the Study of War. ISW itself has calculated that Russia captured 1,042 square miles (2,700 square kilometers) in 2024, about the size of Rhode Island, compared with just 180 square miles (465 square kilometers) last year, according to FT. In the latest developments reported on Dec. 6, the Russian military claimed to have captured the Donetsk region settlements of Sukhi Yaly and Pustynka, with the latter about 30 kilometers away from the embattled supply hub of Pokrovsk and about 35 kilometers away from the industrial town of Kurakhove. Ukrainian military analyst DeepState said Russian troops were less than 7 kilometers from the outskirts of Pokrovsk, which is a major logistics base and transport hub for Ukraine’s armed forces, where multiple roads and rail lines intersect. Given how precarious the situation has become in eastern Ukraine, Zelenskyy announced that he was replacing the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, appointing Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Drapaty to succeed Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Pavliuk, accordiung to NYT.
The U.S. has pressed Ukraine to lower its military recruitment age to 18 to address a severe shortage of manpower that has weakened its position on the battlefield and led to the fastest Russian gains in two years, according to FT. In addition to casualties, the personnel strength of the Ukrainian armed forces has been diminished by desertions. More Ukrainian soldiers have deserted in the first 10 months of this year than in the previous two years of the war, according to FT. Since 2022, Ukraine has opened nearly 96,000 criminal cases against servicemen who abandoned their positions in what represents a sixfold increase over the past two years, and most of the cases were opened this year, according to Bloomberg.
Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, and Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, have spoken by phone on how to manage escalation concerns between the two countries, defense and military officials told NYT. The rare phone call took place on Nov. 27, just six days after Russia launched a new nuclear-capable MRBM, “Oreshnik,” at Ukraine and nine days before Vladimir Putin said he would heed Belarus’ request to deploy this missile on Belarus’s territory. The past week has seen Putin continue to talk up the Oreshnik, describing its impact as being “comparable in power to that of a nuclear weapon.” In remarks made on Nov. 28, Putin also said Russia will use any means it has at its disposal to prevent the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry is yet to confirm Gerasimov’s conversation with Brown. Previously, the Kremlin denied reports in the U.S. media that Putin spoke to Donald Trump upon the latter’s victory in the U.S. presidential election.
Three-quarters of Americans (76%) worry Russia might use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine, and 70% are concerned about Russia launching a thermonuclear attack against the U.S., up 10 points since 2021, according to the 2024 Reagan National Defense Survey, conducted in November 2024. In contrast, only 39% of Russians think Russia would be definitely or probably justified in using nuclear weapons in this war, while 45% do not find such actions justifiable, according to the Levada Center’s November poll. The gap between nuclear hawks and doves in Russia was wider than in the previous poll: in April 2023, some 29% of Russians said they’d justify the use of nukes in Ukraine, while 56% held the opposite view.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/12/rus ... embership/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Dec 10, 2024 1:04 pm

Bratstvo and the conquest of the Lavra
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/12/2024

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In early November, during a prayer meeting of the Bratstvo Battalion in the refectory of the Church of Saints Anthony and Theodosius of the Kiev Pechersk Lavra Monastery, a solemn ceremony of awarding insignia and decorations to the battalion's fighters, in some cases posthumously, was held by the Ministry of Defense. The award was made by the commander of Bratstvo, Oleksiy Serediuk, and the head of the Timur Group of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), an officer of the Ukrainian armed forces known by the nickname Timur .

Beyond the internal affairs of the Ukrainian military structures, the context of the event, both political, military and religious, suggests some interesting aspects. In the military dimension, for example, the act of recognition is associated with the fighting that took place between 7 and 14 October for control of the small town of Kruglyakovka, in the Kharkiv Oblast . During these fighting, forces of the Timur group of the GUR, led by Bratstvo, supported by personnel of the 77th Airborne Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, managed to push back the forces of the Russian Federation in their advance towards the Oskol River in the central area between the towns of Kupyansk and Borova. The Ukrainian group also mined the movement routes of the Russian and LPR troops in the area.

Access to Kruglyakovka is crucial for controlling the main land route between the left and right banks of the river in the direction of the city of Kupyansk from the town of Borova. In addition to opening an access route to Kupyansk and closing the main land route between this city and the south, on the border with the Lugansk region, control of Kruglyakovka would allow the Ukrainian troops located in the Kivsharovka and Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi pockets to be trapped on the side opposite Kupyansk itself. This is the reason for the effort to open the hitherto only route of penetration of the Russian forces and the Lugansk People's Republic in the part of the Oskol River located south of Kupyansk. This is the salient located between Pishane and the bridge that connects Kruglyakovka to Senkove, one of the main objectives of the Russian advances in recent months in this sector of the front. This battle for control of the area is still ongoing.

The Pechersk Lavra event shows the consolidation of the Bratstvo movement in the direction it had always sought: the formation of a political-military structure with influence in the national-rightist movement in Ukraine; in some ways similar to that of groups such as Azov, but in which a religious ideological framework predominated over Azov neo-paganism. The Pechersk Lavra event reveals the group's progress in this direction, as well as its progressive integration into the deep structures of the Ukrainian state. Little remains of the small militia with hardly any prominence in 2022 in the current Battalion, now permanently integrated into the structures of the Ministry of Defense of the GUR, with operational capacity on the battlefield, both in assault operations and in carrying out special operations in certain sections of the front, including penetration into the territory of the Russian Federation and the People's Republics.

Bratstvo ultimately goes from being a unit for the dissemination of purely propaganda actions by the GUR at the beginning of the war, between 2022 and 2023, to being progressively redirected to the professional work that characterizes covert action within the framework of an organization such as Kyrilo Budanov's. As shown by the evolution of Bratstvo, already visible in its participation in the battle of Bakhmut-Artyomovsk, the group has gone from initial actions of very risky penetration into the territory of the Russian Federation or in Crimea, often without sufficient cover or support, to participation in special operations of great importance in action at the front.

The transformation into a special force that needs to operate covertly must be combined with the public display of military exploits in a group that is permanently focused on propaganda and recruitment. And the video of the GUR award ceremony is significant in this regard. In a solemn setting, the camera moves from one side to the other, leaving hardly any traces of personal recognition, with pixelation of both faces and identifications, which includes the GUR representative himself, despite the inevitable recognition of the presence of the group's leader Timur at the event. All this with only two exceptions, that of Major Oleksiy Serediuk, and that of the political leader, comedian in his spare time and extremist provocateur by profession, Dmytro Korchinsky.

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Korchinsky during the event in an image distributed by the GUR.

Korchinsky's powerful presence in the Lavra Refectory is not merely symbolic, but reveals the changes in power in Ukraine. It should be remembered, for example, that Korchinsky's movement, Bratstvo, focused a central part of its activity on confrontation with the wing of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church linked to the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC). One action that made Bratstvo and Korchinsky famous was precisely the seizure of the Pechersk Lavra in 1992, an occupation battle in which he persisted in the moments prior to the start of the war in 2022.

Thus, at the beginning of 2021, the leader of Bratstvo resumed his campaign to expel the UOC from its churches, in particular from the Pechersk Lavra, and demanded that the state take the monastery away from the organization. One of his accusations at that time is particularly striking, since it referred to the lack of artistic value of various annexes of the Lavra that he called for destruction, including the Church and Refectory of Saints Anthony and Theodosius, built between 1893 and 1895.

Although Korchinsky's battle against the UOC is not yet completely won, the fact that the GUR and Bratstvo organised the event at the Refectory, in the context of the progressive political-religious dismantling of the UOC, is an example of the power achieved by the once small Ukrainian far-right movements with the aim of consolidating themselves as powerful political-military militias in Ukraine. A power that is not achieved only by penetrating the State, but also through the State's assumption of its ideology and objectives. As is happening with the project to liquidate the part of the Ukrainian Church associated with the Moscow Patriarchate.

Regarding the internal dynamics of Bratstvo, finally, according to its spokesmen, the presentation of decorations underlines “ once again the courage of our brothers in the defense of Ukraine and their devotion to our Lord Jesus Christ ” in the search for the intended Victory for God against the forces of what they usually call Muscovy . In the actions of October in Kruglyakovka , Bratstvo mentions some casualties, among them that of some representative figures of its members, such as Daniil Dovgopol, Medoid . The deceased was a scout of the Bratstvo light fast boats department. According to some sources, he died on October 14, 2024 in the final phase of the battle for Kruglyakovka . He was barely 19 years old, although he had joined the Battalion at the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022, so he was considered a veteran within the group.

The death at Dovgopol once again highlights another of the Battalion's distinctive traits: the participation in combat of very young and willing recruits, attracted by Korchinsky's fundamentalist creed and his militant nationalist extremism.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/12/10/brats ... del-lavra/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of December 10, 2024 ) Main :

- Since the beginning of the special operation, the Russian military has destroyed 1,500 Ukrainian MLRS combat vehicles;

- Russian air defense systems shot down 3 HIMARS projectiles and 23 Ukrainian drones in 24 hours;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 530 servicemen in 24 hours in the area of ​​responsibility of the "West" group;

- The "West" group defeated six Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades in 24 hours, including a National Guard brigade;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 225 servicemen in 24 hours in the area of ​​the "South" group of forces;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 95 fighters in 24 hours as a result of the actions of the "North" and "Dnepr" groups;

- The Eastern group of the Russian Armed Forces destroyed up to 160 Ukrainian servicemen in 24 hours.

▫️Units of the Center group of forces , as a result of active operations, liberated the settlement of Zheltoe of the Donetsk People's Republic. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of three mechanized , motorized infantry , assault brigades and an assault battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Dzerzhinsk, Shcherbinovka, Dimitrov, Petrovka and Pushkino of the Donetsk People's Republic. They repelled eight counterattacks of armed formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The enemy lost over 575 servicemen, a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle and an M113 armored personnel carrier made in the USA, two cars, a 152 mm D-20 gun and three 122 mm D-30 howitzers .

▫️Units of the "East" group of forces improved the position along the forward edge, defeated the formations of the mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Konstantinopol, Velyka Novosyolka, Neskuchnoye and Vremevka of the Donetsk People's Republic. They repelled four counterattacks of the enemy assault groups. The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 160 servicemen, an HMMWV combat armored vehicle and a 155 mm self-propelled artillery mount "Paladin" made in the USA, three cars, two 152 mm self-propelled artillery mounts "Akatsiya" , a 122 mm howitzer D-30 , a 122 mm self-propelled artillery mount "Gvozdika" and an electronic warfare station.

▫️Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of the mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Dneprovskoe, Antonovka in the Kherson region and the city of Kherson. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 25 servicemen, two vehicles and a 152 mm D-20 gun .

▫️ Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the troop groups of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted damage on concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 128 areas.

▫️ Air defense systems shot down three US-made HIMARS multiple launch rockets and 23 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

📊In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 649 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 37,527 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,720 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,500 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles, 19,334 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 29,123 units of special military vehicles.

***

Colonelcassad
4:17
New arrests of traitors who worked for the SBU and their curators

The FSB announced the arrest of employees of an international call center network who worked for the SBU and the former Georgian Defense Minister, organizing arson attacks on military registration and enlistment offices and polling stations.

The special service detained 11 managers and employees of Russian offices of fraudulent call centers. According to the special service, in 2022, the network managers, on instructions from the SBU, sent out anonymous messages about alleged terrorist attacks being prepared in Russia.

The role of fraudsters in the hands of the SBU or the GUR and other structures of the Ukrainian government was noticeable before the start of the SVO. Many of our citizens suffered from calls from Ukrainian telephone terrorists who extorted money from pensioners or unsuspecting Russian citizens.

After the SVO, these same call centers, with the support of the Center for Informed PsyOps, began organizing arson attacks on military registration and enlistment offices, sabotage, and terrorist attacks. Strange fires, blazes last year - in many cases they were related to the enemy's activities inside our country.

But in 2024 their number has significantly decreased, largely due to the actions of the special services and security forces, as well as the successes of our army at the front. But there are still many such "sleeper cells" - many have wormed their way into the ranks of refugees and scattered around the country, so the work must continue.

@rusich_army

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Colonelcassad
In the Kursk direction (data from the Russian Ministry of Defense):

Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 200 servicemen, two tanks, eight armored combat vehicles, two cars and three mortars were destroyed.

In total, during the military operations in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 39,460 servicemen, 234 tanks, 171 infantry fighting vehicles, 123 armored personnel carriers, 1,241 armored combat vehicles, 1,100 vehicles, 308 artillery pieces, 40 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including 11 HIMARS and six MLRS made in the USA, 13 anti-aircraft missile system launchers, seven transport and loading vehicles, 72 electronic warfare stations, 13 counter-battery radars, four air defense radars, 27 units of engineering and other equipment, including 13 engineering obstacle clearing vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit, as well as six armored repair and recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Russian Armed Forces Return to Sumy Region
December 10, 12:43

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A remarkable event.
After more than 2 years, the Russian Armed Forces have returned to the Sumy region.
As part of the ongoing offensive in the Kursk region, the Russian Armed Forces crossed the border of the Sumy region and occupied a piece of territory south of the village of Plekhovo, which was also liberated yesterday after long, fierce battles.
For now, this is more of a symbolic occupation of territory than a demonstration of more ambitious plans to occupy the north of the Sumy region, but who knows - will the advance stop after the enemy is driven out of the Sudzhansky district.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9542826.html

Google Translator

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Aleksandro-Kalinovskoye direction: liquidation of the "pocket" near the dairy plant and liberation of the greater part of the Zabalka microdistrict
December 9, 2024
Rybar

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The battle for Dzerzhinsk , a key hub for the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense in the Aleksandro-Kalinovsky direction , is gaining momentum. Over the past few weeks, Russian troops have pushed the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of several major strongholds in the city and have also engaged in battles for waste heaps to the west.

In the Dyleevka-Dachnoye area , Russian troops are concentrated on weakening the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Artillery and UAV crews are working on enemy firing points and temporary deployment points, gradually "dismantling" large defensive lines.

In the northern part of Dzerzhinsk, by December 1, the Russian Armed Forces stormtroopers took control of the territory of the Shcherbinovka 110/35/6 kV substation . Their presence was also recorded to the north of the substation, which indicates a complete clearing of the facility and the consolidation of Russian troops at the achieved lines.

Ukrainian forces maintain a presence at the Avangard stadium to the west, allowing them to maintain fire control over the city park .

In the central sector, the Russian Armed Forces made significant progress along Mayakovsky and Frunze streets , dislodging the enemy from several strongholds. This was largely possible due to the successful actions of assault groups in the area of ​​the Dzerzhinsky mine .

The battle for the facility began at the end of November, when the advance groups of the Russian Armed Forces were able to gain a foothold on its outskirts and repel counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The attack on the mine was carried out in parallel with the operation to eliminate the “pocket” in the area of ​​the Dzerzhinsky dairy plant , the main defensive node of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which had long been hindering the advance of Russian troops in the city.

By December 8, the "pocket" was cleared, and most of the Dzerzhinsky mine , including the coal depot, was taken under control.

In the south of the city, the Russian Armed Forces have completely driven the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the western part of the Zabalka microdistrict . The enemy was unable to hold on to the positions it had previously recaptured, after which it was pushed back to the waste heaps. They are currently the main hub of its defense - Ukrainian formations are transferring reserves to the mine and the private sector through the roads that pass through here.

These routes have been zeroed in on by Russian troops, who regularly "catch" groups of Ukrainian Armed Forces on them. Between waste heaps #7 and #1 , a kind of "cemetery" of enemy armored vehicles has formed, burned by UAV and ATGM operators.

Seeing the impossibility of holding urban agglomerations in Donbas, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have switched to a "scorched earth" tactic. This has already been observed in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk . Recently, a video appeared on the Internet showing the explosion of the Toretskaya mine in the north of Dzerzhinsk .

The enemy's goal is likely to be to destroy the city's industrial potential and create a humanitarian crisis.

https://rybar.ru/aleksandro-kalinovskoe ... a-zabalka/

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Joe Lauria: US Bill Would Reverse ATACMS Order
December 9, 2024
By Joe Lauria, Consortium News, 12/7/24

A bill introduced into the U.S. House of Representatives by Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA) would prohibit the U.S. from sending long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine to be fired into Russia.

As U.S. personnel and satellites are required to fire the missiles from Ukrainian territory, Moscow considers it a direct U.S. attack on Russia putting it in a state of war with the U.S. which could lead to nuclear conflict.

To remove the potential of nuclear war, the proposed legislation seeks to end ATACMS launches into Russia. The bill reads:

(a) Prohibition.—For the period beginning on the date of the enactment of this Act and ending at the close of January 20, 2025, notwithstanding any other provision of law, during any period for which a state of conflict exists between Ukraine and the Russian Federation—

1) no Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) may be transferred to Ukraine; and

(2) U.S. Military Services or intelligence agencies may not provide support to Ukrainian units operating High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HMARS) platforms utilizing ATACMS munitions to strike outside of internationally recognized Ukrainian territorial borders—

(A) targeting intelligence support;

(B) mission planning support; and

(C) any other type of support.


Several members of Congress and their staff said they were taken off guard by President Joe Biden’s reversal of his previous decision not to allow the use of ATACMS to be fired into Russia from Ukraine.

The members and their staff made these remarks during meetings on Thursday on Capitol Hill with former U.N. weapons inspector Scott Ritter and activists of Code Pink, led by Medea Benjamin.

Biden Breaks With Realists


ATACMS missile firing in May 2006. (U.S. Army/Wikimedia Commons)

Biden had twice before sided with the Pentagon to avoid direct war with Russia. In March 2022 he overruled his Secretary of State Antony Blinken to scotch plans for a NATO no-fly zone over Ukraine, which could have lead to direct conflict with Russia.

Biden opposed the no-fly zone, he said at the time, because “that’s called World War III, okay? Let’s get it straight here, guys. We will not fight the third world war in Ukraine.”

Then in September Biden deferred to the realists in the Pentagon to oppose long-range British Storm Shadow missiles from being fired by Ukraine deep into Russia out of fear it would also lead to a direct NATO-Russia military confrontation with all that that entails.

Putin warned at the time that because British soldiers on the ground in Ukraine would actually launch the British missiles into Russia with U.S. geostrategic support, it “will mean that NATO countries — the United States and European countries — are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.”

That was a clear warning that British and U.S. targets could be hit. Biden thus wisely backed off.

But after he was driven from the race and his party lost the White House last month, Biden suddenly switched gears allowing not only British, but also U.S. long-range ATACMS missiles to be fired into Russia. It’s not clear that the White House ever informed the Pentagon in advance.

Higgin’s bill was introduced as H.R. 10218 on Nov. 21, but none of the other House members that Ritter and Benjamin met with on Capitol Hill had heard of it. Nor was it reported in the mainstream media.

“We found that commonsense is actually alive and living here in the halls of Congress,” Ritter told Consortium News. “Members of Congress and their staffs understand the danger of nuclear war. We found that there was a bill already written … that sought to achieve what we were trying to get them to do.”

Benjamin said: “We are excited to push this bill, which we just found out about. … It will not pass, but the idea is to get momentum for it so that message is coming out there that there are members of Congress who want to see this reversed and that in the next Congress, they will introduce it again with a lot more momentum.”

“To stop a nuclear war comes down to one issue,” Ritter said:

“The United States has to stop attacking Russian soil with American-made ATACMS missiles. Even though we use a Ukrainian cutout, it’s American provided, American targets and American intelligence. It’s the Americans attacking Russia. From the Russian perspective, the United States is at war with Russia … which has triggered their nuclear doctrine.”

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/12/joe ... cms-order/

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The Second Great Ukrainian Ruin Revisited
by Gordonhahn
December 10, 2024

Introduction: The Four Horseman of the Ukraine’s Ruin 2.0

As I wrote nearly two years ago, the Western strategy of NATO expansion to Ukraine at all costs is leading to a second Ukrainian ‘Ruin.’ There are four Western deceptions and lost opportunities for ending Ukraine‘s violence that have led Ukraine to slaughter. These are the four horsemen of the Ukrainian apocaplypse or its Second Great Ruin or Ruin 2.0.

First was the violation of February 21, 2014 agreement between Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and the Ukrainian opposition of the Maidan to pull back both demonstrators and police and hold early presidential elections late in 2014. Instead of seeing this agreement through, the neofascist wing oft he Maidan opposition carried out a snipers‘ terrorist attack killing both demonstrators and Berkut security police leading to the violent overthrow of Yanukovych, who was blamed by the Maidan opposition and the West for the shootings. The West hailed the putsch as democratic “revolution of dignity“ and never mentioned the February agreement; one brokered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to then Polish Foreign Minister and agreement participant, Radek Sikorski. Russia responded by giving the West a taste of its own medicine by supporting separatist actors in Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Kiev responded by declaring an “anti-terrorist operation“ that began the Ukrainian civil war, bringing Russian troops into Donbass to protect the pro-Russian separatists.

Second were the violations of the Russo-Ukrainian Minsk agreements. This was nothing other than a Minsk Fake or Feint, which, as numerous Western and Ukrainian officials acknowledged, the Putin-Poroshenko Minsk ceasefire accords were used to buy time for building up Ukraine’s army for an assault on Crimea and Donbass. Thus, the civil war did not end but persisted, with Kiev inflicting more than 10,000 casualties on Donbass civilians in 2015-2021.

Third came the U.S. violation of Joseph Biden’s December 2021 promise to Putin that the US and NATO would not deploy cruise missiles in Ukraine. Instead of holding tot hat promise made in a Biden-Putin phone call, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that the US was withdrawing that promise, opening up the possibility of deploying conventional and/or nuclear cruise missiles in Ukraine, with flight times to Moscow of minutes. This was the straw that broke the camel’s back, requiring Putin to undertake a military response to the Ukrainian crisis on 24 February 2022—the so-called “unprovoked and full-scale attack on Ukraine.“ Fourth and finally, (4) the Western scuttling of the Russo-Ukrainian Istanbul agreement to end Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. Much has now been written about this, so I will not repeat the details here; I will only provide a link to all the sources, confirming this (https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1746 ... 73766.html; see also https://x.com/i_katchanovski/status/175 ... 3DfCRCwexQ; and www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=8229337113 ... 7214977840).

These “four horsemen” and that which they have been intended to facilitate – NATO expansion – are the causes of “Putin’s unprovoked war on Ukraine“ and hence Ukraine’s apocalyptic Second Great Ruin — Turn 2.0.

Western strategy of gradual escalation — if it is a strategy and not just ad hoc, knee jerk reaction — has turned Ukraine into the sacrificial lamb on the altar of NATO expansion. The destiny of the West’s persistence in escalating in order to level a “strategic defeat against Russia” can be seen in the proposal of some of its officials, according to the New York Times, to ‚return‘ nuclear weapons to Ukraine (www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/us/politics/ ... e-war.html). This would end either in a pre-emptive Russian nuclear or massive conventional strike that would complete the process of the Second Great Ruin — total destruction of the Ukrainian state if not people — a far greater Ruin then the first incarnation.

The Ukrainian Ruin 1.0

The great Cossack ‘Ruin’, which like Cossack legacies themselves have been appropriated by modern day Ukrainians by dint of its occurrence on Cossack lands, was a period of civil war, anarchy, chaos, and devastation nurtured by foreign powers’ interventions. In many ways, it resembles Russia’s ‘Smuta’ or Time of Troubles of seven-eight decades earlier, which combined chaos, internal conflict, and foreign, mostly Polish intervention. The 17th century great ‘Ukrainian’ or Cossack ‘Ruin’, which lasted from the death of Cossack Hetman Bodgan Khmelnitskiy in 1657 until the rise of the next great hetman, Ivan Mazepa, in 1687. Khmelnitskiy led the dominant Zaporozhian Cossacks to sign the 1654 Pereslavl Treaty, which brought many Cossack lands under Russian sovereignty. But chaos and destruction were sewn through political machinations, violent raiding, and full-scale attacks by Poland-Lithuania, the Ottoman Empire, and the Crimean Tatar Khanate, occasionally backed by Sweden in order to contest Russian and Cossack sovereignty. In particular, the Polish-Russian War (1654-1667) sparked by the Pereslavl treaty generated much of the conflict and dislocation of the Ruin. Other wars raged across what is today Ukraine: the Ukrainian-Polish war (1666-1671), the Ukrainian-Moscow war (1665-1676), and the Polish-Turkish war (1672-1676), with various Cossack groups joining and changing sides often enough.

At the same time, Russia’s protection and presence, combined with the pressure from other ‘Others’, especially the hated Poles, formed a contrast against which a Cossack identity began to be consolidated across a broader swathe of the population on both sides of the Dniepr. The Russian attempt to subdue and organize the Cossacks, who had declared their loyalty to the tsar, violated Cossack traditions of decentralization, anarchic freedom, lack of rule of law, and a resulting internecine conflict and violence. Discontent with and internal disagreements over Russian rule fueled further conflict between those who supported and opposed it. Additional internal tensions were driven by conflict between non-Catholic nobles and the Cossack officer class or ‘starshina’ over new, ownerless lands seized from Poland and comprising some 50 percent of Cossack territory. The fighting over these lands divided the poor peasantry from rich, landed Cossacks.

But most unsettling was the fighting between Russia and Poland over Cossack territories, with Poland struggling to control the ‘right’ or western bank Ukraine and Russia usually the ‘left’ or eastern bank. This forced Cossack hetmen, starshina, and ‘society’ to split between these and other outside forces, leading to internal power struggles, constantly shifting allegiances that pitted Cossack against Cossack as well as Cossacks against outsiders. The Ruin’s consequences included: the division of Cossack (Ukrainian) lands by Russia, Poland-Lithuania, and Ottoman Turkey, Polish-controlled right bank Ukraine’s loss of more than half of its inhabitants many of them to the Russian controlled left bank, and the mass devastation of Cossack settlements. It was not until the end of Catherine the Great’s reign, when the left bank Cossacks lost the limited autonomy they had enjoyed under the Pereslavl Treaty, that Cossackdom’s entire left bank and much of the right bank lands were stabilized and integrated into the Russian Imperial system.

The Ukrainian Ruin 2.0

Now, the Second Ukrainian Ruin is here. In addition to the human, social, political, and economic destruction reminiscent of The Ruin I, the country possibly is facing a similar partition, perhaps by several states, and incorporation of large areas into Russia. The Western media is only just beginning to report what I have been predicting and demonstrating for more than a year: that Ukraine’s army will dissolve and that any attempts to keep the losing proposition that is Kiev’s continued participation in the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War is driving the deep schism in Maidan Ukraine that risks regime, state and social collapse.

The human factor is the most disturbing. Ukrainian casualties (deaths and wounded unable to return to the battle) easily exceed 650,000 and could rise to 1 million by year’s end. Surveys by Ukraine’s Kyiv International Institute of Sociology for the U.S. Democratic Party’s National Democratic Institute this summer revealed that 77 per cent of respondents have lost during the war family members, friends or acquaintances, four times as many as two years earlier. 22% of respondents said they have lost a relative. Two-thirds said they were finding it difficult or very difficult to live on their wartime income (https://archive.is/Ylpt9#selection-4781.0-4785.257). The Ukrainian fertility rate is the world’s lowest, and few Ukrainians who left the country intend to return. The country could be left with less than 20 million by war’s end, whenever that may be – likely late this year or early next year. Socially, both domestic and street violence (against military and police mobilizers) is increasing, and the mobilization of all men aged 24 and above into the military is destroying families. . A social explosion and political revolt against ‘Zemobilization’, as it is called by the populace, is but a gunshot away. As it stands, there now appears to be an organized anti-mobilization movement that is burning mobilizers’ vehicles on a nightly, sometimes mass basis. The number of Ukrainian external and internal refugees is almost equal to the domestic population.

Economic dislocation is set to further grind the country to a halt. Its economy has shrunk several times over and is now around $200 billion in size. Ten percent of Ukrainians report they have insufficient funds to buy food (https://ctrana.news/news/475204-kakomu- ... pros-.html). This is more than a hundred times smaller than the US economy and several times smaller than its military budget. Government spending doubles revenues. Thus, borrowing has become Ukraine’s mode of financial and economic survival: $58 billion in 2022, $46 billion in 2023 and likely $52 billion this year. Western governments are sufficiently strapped so as to be pushing an unworkable and illegal plan to use $300 billion in confiscated Russian assets to finance an economic aid package.

Kiev was on the verge of default as of late July, but a July 22nd preliminary deal put off doomsday. Nevertheless, instead of the 40 percent debt reduction requested by Kiev, investors led by JP Morgan agreed to a $20 billion hit, restructuring the debt payments. Kiev committed itself in the bargain to reduce (!) its debt/GDP ratio to 82 percent by 2028 and 65 percent by 2033. That ratio is currently at nearly 100 percent, and the risk of a default is 60 percent next year and as much as 80 percent the next (https://t.me/rezident_ua/23323). However, Ukraine’s debt is mounting despite additional loans from some of its creditors. For example, While the deal with IMF will provide $1.1 billion, according to the final deal worked out in September, Ukraine must re-pay the IMF just over $2 billion by year’s end (https://ctrana.news/news/471849-ukraina ... editu.html). At the same time, Ukraine’s Central Bank has been devaluing its currency, the grivna. Over the last six months it has lost some 10 percent of its value, forcing even great money printing which will increase inflation woes.

Meanwhile, the corrupt Maidan regime – one of the most corrupt in the world – is adding a kind of official corruption to the numerous schemes for unofficial corruption, including such war-related schemes, such as salaries for dead soldiers, bribes to avoid the draft, and skimming of weapons’ production and supplies needed at the front. The official scheme is that on the background of the ravages of war and economic and social dislocation, the Maidan government is planning large pay hikes for bureaucrats, despite there numerous opportunities for profiteering through unofficial corruption. For example, in the 2025 budget, the Verkhovna Rada’s apparat is getting a 26 percent salary increase, the Cabinet of Ministers – 20 percent, the specialized anticorruption procuracy – 71 percent, the Economic Security Bureau – 75 percent, the National Commission for Bonds and Bond market – 50 percent, the General Procuracy – 26 percent, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau – 28 percent, the Accounting Chamber – 38 percent, the Tax Police – 39 percent, the Customs Service 15 percent (https://ctrana.news/news/472335-v-sledu ... platy.html).

The war is driving businesses into the ground. Shortages of electricity and the mobilization of all men over the age of 24 is forcing hundreds of businesses to shut down (https://t.me/rezident_ua/23326). This downward trend will intensify as the result of a recently mandated audit of vital enterprises during which some 10 percent of enterprises lost such status and tens of thousands of men lost draft-exempt status and so will be sent from the workplace to the front (https://ctrana.news/news/475288-posleds ... raine.html). A signature event symbolising the devastating and destabilising effect of mass, coercive military mobilization is having on Ukraine is the recent cancellation of a popular pop singer’s concert because her entire band was mobilized (https://ctrana.news/news/475307-olha-ts ... antov.html). Yet Zelenskiy himself has acknowledged that there is a “personnel crisis” in both the private and public sector due to war casualties (www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2024/11/17/7484951/).

Ukraine is about to see the last vestiges of its vital and once vaunted metallurgical and coal industries disappear. The loss of Mariupol to Russian forces in 2023 meant the loss of approximately half (estimates range from 40-66 percent) of Ukraine’s metallurgy industry and most of its coal and other raw materials mining capacity—key ones for the country (www.epravda.com.ua/rus/publications/2024/11/14/721795/). What remains of Ukraine’s metallurgical and coal industries have become ever since almost totally reliant on its plants and mines in and around Pokrovsk and a few other smaller ones elsewhere. Now, with the loss of Pokrovsk imminent around the New Year will almost completely eliminate Ukraine’s metallurgical and coal industries, as the coking coal needed for them are almost entirely processed in and near the town to its west (www.epravda.com.ua/publications/2024/10/25/721007/). This means other industries will lack the steel and other metal products needed for manufacturing, including military production. Oleksandr Kalenkov, president of the association of enterprises “Ukrmetallurgprom” says the only remaining mines, those “mines in the west of Ukraine, in the Lviv region,…(do not provide) the volumes that could satisfy our enterprises. The deposits and mining there are very small, scarce, so they, unfortunately, cannot be a substitute….We are talking about a few percent (of Ukraine’s mines as of 2014), so these are insignificant volumes and they will not save the situation” (www.epravda.com.ua/publications/2024/10/25/721007/).The war has led to a shortage of fresh water and other resources needed to preserve harvested fruits and vegetables, with losses estimated at 40-60 percent this year (https://www.epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2024/11/14/721831/).

Moreover, Russian military power has destroyed perhaps 60 percent of Ukraine’s energy-generating capacity and could well destroy 100 percent. EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson reported in August that as a result of Russian attacks and captures Ukraine has lost 9 Gigawatts (GW) of productive energy power, comprising approximately half of the energy supply Ukraine will need for the coming winter. He warns of an impending „catastrophe“ unless the West can help repair damaged infrastructure, supply small generators to facilitate decentralization, install solar panels of hospital and school rooftops, and increase energy exports to Ukraine (www.ft.com/content/75649cf7-b40d-45da-94d0-6a571308f74b). According to the UN’s Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), there will be electricity blackouts across Ukraine this winter lasting variably from 4-18 hours daily. The Mission’s leader Daniel Bell warns that the longer cutoffs could lead to „catastrophic consequences“ (www.epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2024/09/19/719547/). A leading Ukrainian energy expert assesses that if two of Ukraine’s remaining atomic energy stations are disabled, the country would be plunged into a universal blackout (https://ctrana.news/news/475053-kohda-v ... itsja.html).

Given widespread shortages in every sphere, Kiev is being driven into hyper-dependence on the West and its global institutions, crippling Ukraine’s state sovereignty for years if not decades to come. The Ukrainian state, including the military and police, and much of its economy are funded by Western states and private bondholders, saddling the country with massive debt. For example, it must continue to auction away large state assets to the highest foreign bidders – such as large swathes of Ukrainian territory to Blackrock.

The military mobilization passed and being carried out this year with such a debilitating effect on the economy and society is failing to replace current losses at the front with completely inexperienced recruits with low to no morale (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8yMTGKURYU). There are reportedly no more volunteers, and by spring some Ukrainian officials report the situation will be irretrievable. Moreover, desertions from the Ukrainian military, ignored in the Western media for three years, have recently been revealed to have exceeded 100,000 since the war began. Moreover, more than half those desertions have occurred this year alone (https://apnews.com/article/deserters-aw ... 363c9e5ea0). This would amount to perhaps more than 10 precent of the Ukrainian army. Almost all new recruits are old or unmotivated, The Economist reports (https://ctrana.one/news/475629-nekhvatk ... omist.html). Most recently, Western governments have reportedly been pressuring Kiev to extend the mobilization to the age cohort of 18-25, which would bring a near catastrophic demographic collapse to a population already depleted by some 30 percent because of war deaths and emigration (https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war- ... 819cc5618f). Already many men are fleeing the country in greater numbers in order to avoid Ukraine’s desperate and draconian forced mobilization measures, sometimes at great risk to their lives and to sociopolitical stability.

Meanwhile, discipline in the military is eroding. Commanders are reporting that 90 percent of their troops on there frontlines are new, coercively mobilised men (https://ctrana.news/news/475190-v-vsu-s ... -ttsk.html). Thus, morale is low, and unauthorised retreats are increasing in frequency. Ukrainians soldiers are refusing to carry out operational orders because they amount to suicide operations and are beginning to surrender as whole units, in one case nearly a full battalion (e.g., 92nd Combat). Indeed, refusals to follow orders or undertake counteroffensive measures are increasing. In one recent case, the Azov Brigade’s chief of staff, Bogdan Koretich, accused a Ukrainian general of such poor command that he was described of being resonsible for more Ukrainian war dead than the Russians, forcing his removal (www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/24/7462293/). At lower levels, commanders are being fired in large numbers (https://strana.news/news/467266-itohi-8 ... raine.html).

With the front collapsing and the army on the verge of dissolving, Zelenskiy’s post-Maidan regime is deeply divided and in danger of dissolution, which could bring state collapse, internecine warfare, and widespread chaos. Ukrainians’ trust in Mr Zelensky has fallen, from 80% in May 2023 to 45% a year later, according to America’s National Democratic Institute (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024 ... omatically), and have continued to fall. Thus, the most recent Ukrainian opinion poll by the Social Monitoring Center in Kiev shows that only 16 percent of Ukrainians are prepared to vote for Zelenskiy in any future presidential election, and 60 percent would prefer he did not run. At the same time, Zelenskiy-dismissed, former commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhniy would lead in any such election and be backed by 27 percent, according to the poll (www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-w ... -stzqf5bpn). According to the Presidential Office’s earlier in-house opinion polls as well, Zelenskiy today would lose a presidential election to Zaluzhniy. The fired general registers as Ukraine’s most popular political and military figure, according to other recent polls (https://ctrana.news/news/459385-opros-o ... ltaty.html). In trust ratings, Zelenskiy has fallen to third place – after Zaluzhny and the head of military intelligence (HRU) Kirill Budanov, whom the President’s Office is now trying to fire (https://ctrana.news/articles/analysis/4 ... asti-.html). Most recently, Zelenskiy was forced to conduct a purge of the state guard service after a plot to assassinate him and other officials, including military intelligence (HRU) chief Kyrylo Budanov was uncovered inside this organ created to protect the Ukrainian president (www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy- ... 024-06-24/). Despite the forced hibernation of Zaluzhniy in London, tensions are again escalating between Zelenskiy and the military. For example, Zaluzhniy has criticized Zelenskiy’s failing and soon to be disastrous Kursk incursion into Russia.

Zelenskiy’s Rada attack dog, deputy Mariana Bezuglaya, has been conducting a campaign against Zaluzhniy’s successor Sergei Syrskiy, accusing him of incompetence and using “Soviet” “authoritarian methods” (https://strana.news/news/467266-itohi-8 ... raine.html). Even as Zelenskiy resists peace talks and Western military and financial assistance begin to fade, the exhausted populace is now ready to sue for peace. Polling by Ukraine’s Kyiv International Institute of Sociology for the U.S. Democratic Party’s National Democratic Institute this past summer showed that 57 per cent of respondents believe Ukraine should engage in peace talks with Russia, up from 33 per cent a year earlier (https://archive.is/Ylpt9#selection-4781.0-4785.257). Zelenskiy’s refusal, though weakening, risks a final political isolation, leading to his fall and perhaps political chaos.

Finally, the strategic escalation between Moscow and the West as reflected most recently by the latter’s supply to Ukraine of intermediate-range missiles and the former’s use of a new hypersonic, MIRVed intermediate ballistic missile, Oreshnik, is further destroying Ukraine and risks a penultimate blow. In conditions of high escalation, Putin is unlikely to choose striking the West with nuclear or even the new Oreshnik. Rather, he likely would opt if deemed necessary to attack Ukraine with a tactical nuclear missile.

CONCLUSION

The U.S. and NATO continue to escalate a war that only serves to use Ukraine as sacrificial lamb on the altar of NATO expansion to Russia’s borders and elsewhere. In response, Moscow is on the verge of levelling a debilitating attack on Ukraine using its revolutionary Oreshkin missile and other advanced weapons. At the same time, Russia’s ground forces are advancing on the ground at an accelerating pace as I suggested would be the case a year ago. All this is happening on the background of a renewed Russian air campaign crippling Ukraine’s already decimated energy sector. In the new Ukrainian Ruin it becomes very possibly for a fully ruined Ukraine. The material, social, and economic destruction is accompanied by the growing risk of regime and state meltdown. With no presidential elections as long as the war lasts, the only ways to put an end to the war are illegal forms of regime or leadership change. Zelenskiy’s survival may well be in jeopardy if defeat in the war persists and/or negotiations bring the same result as the Istanbul agreement he jettisoned in April 2022. A coup could further divide the country and army, bringing chaos on a scale unknown in Europe since the beginning of the last century.

It is because of all of the mounting Ruin II that Zelenskiy and others are now putting out peace plans — cautious feelers — for getting peace talks with Moscow underway (https://strana.news/news/469756-perehov ... rainy.html). The press of war on state and society is destroying Ukraine’s unstated ‘social contract’ between state and society, which allowed Ukraine’s semi-anarchic disunity to hold shakily together since at least the Maidan (https://t.me/stranaua/128628 and https://t.me/stranaua/153704). They smell their own blood in the water and know the sharks are out there soon to strike. Whether the greatest threat to Zelenskiy’s version of Maidan governance is the neofascists, military, secret police (HRU or SBU), a political palace coup, or a public uprising, given his declining approval ratings, is anyone’s guess. All could play a role in the downfall of Zelenskiy and the present Maidan regime. But it is almost a sure thing that the people who are most likely to seize power in the event will do so at the barrels of guns. Some may rise up to end the war, but the rather numerous neofascists and ultranationalists will do so in order to keep it simmering, there is little prospect for unity and stability in any post-war rump Ukraine. This problem will fall to Russia and the West, perhaps in different geographical zones and ways and could very well be used by either to prolong the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War by means other than conventional war. Partisan war, terrorism, and even nuclear war may lurk over the horizon as Ukraine’s Second Great Ruin churns.

https://gordonhahn.com/2024/12/10/the-s ... revisited/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Dec 11, 2024 1:08 pm

Two objectives
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/12/2024

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The interregnum of less than 80 days between the US elections and the inauguration of the new administration has always been seen as an opportunity. This would be the moment when the outgoing president, aware that he would not be re-elected, would have the freedom to make radical decisions without the risk of losing votes. Ukraine expected two things from this interim period between Biden and whoever would succeed him: that the veto on the use of Western missiles against targets in the Russian Federation would be lifted and that the current president would be invited to join NATO. The reluctance and delays that had prevented Joe Biden from giving the authorisation, despite the hard lobbying work carried out by Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, were history once the elections were over. Without any prior announcement, it was the American press that anticipated the news just a few hours before Ukraine used its first ATACMS against the territory of the Bryansk region. Shortly afterwards, British and French authorisation came to also use their Storm Shadow and Scalp. Biden's two months as a lame duck began exactly as Ukraine wanted.

A demanding proxy, kyiv was not satisfied with this permission, for which it had been begging for months, and as soon as the news was published it regretted the leak by downplaying the surprise effect of the first bombing to focus on its second objective: NATO. Although the Ukrainian narrative has always tried to emphasize the issue of accession to the European Union, it was clear that the real objective of the Ukraine born in Maidan was accession to the Atlantic Alliance. In his final period before handing over power to Volodymyr Zelensky, Petro Poroshenko introduced this Euro-Atlantic will into the Ukrainian Constitution, confirming that kyiv placed accession to the EU, for which there was a high proportion of agreement in the territories under its control, on the same level as NATO, for which, despite having increased by presenting the war in Donbass as a Russian invasion, support was not as high. The Russian invasion has achieved what propaganda has failed to do for years in terms of increasing public support for joining the Western military bloc, although it is not the opinion of the population that matters but that of the Western leaders on whom the decision depends. In other words, Ukraine has to convince the leaders of the great powers, primarily the United States, not its own population.

Achieving Ukraine's second short-term goal, obtaining an invitation to NATO, is now Ukraine's priority, which is concerned about the recent insistence on negotiations. Just yesterday, Donald Tusk, who will hold the rotating presidency of the European Union for the next few months, said that negotiations could begin next winter. Although the Polish leader only refers to talks in the different parts of his negotiations, media such as AFP add the word peace in parentheses, giving Tusk's words a different nuance. The situation is far from allowing the kind of peace that Ukraine's Western partners are willing to allow, so there is a high probability that these talks, if they take place and come to fruition, will only seek to freeze the front, without achieving the signing of a treaty that determines the final aspects, that is, the official borders recognized by the parties and clarifies the issue of security, Kiev's main concern at the moment.

“When we talk about freezing the conflict, if it is between us, we talk about it,” Zelensky said earlier this week, making clear what he is considering in the face of the possibility of negotiations, to return to his main objective: Ukraine does not only want to freeze the conflict to get what it demands from Russia, to stop the advances, but also what it demands from its allies, security guarantees that they are not willing to offer. “I said that we want the end of the war more than anyone in the world. And, of course, a diplomatic end to the war will mean saving lives. And that is what we want,” added the Ukrainian president to clarify his conditions. “But I stressed to both President Macron and President Trump: first of all, you will see that Putin does not want the end of this war. Therefore, you have to force him. You can only force him if Ukraine is strong. Ukraine is strong in the face of any diplomacy: it is strong on the battlefield, it is a strong army, a package of weapons, etc. “These are long-range systems, of course, and ATACMS, Taurus, Storm Shadow… We need these very, very much and exclusively for military purposes. We emphasize this, and in addition, there are security guarantees. And now we cannot be in NATO, but there can be an invitation to NATO. And these are the security guarantees that we need,” Zelensky said, linking his two major objectives, missiles and NATO, and making it clear that Ukraine’s priorities are to fight until it gets from its enemies and allies everything it is looking for. The mention of the German Taurus missiles, which the current chancellor has repeatedly denied to kyiv, is representative of this. However, the foreseeable change of government after the next elections opens the door to a change. Germany will not supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine “unilaterally” but will instead discuss this issue collectively with the United States and European countries, said Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU and likely future chancellor, after his visit to Kiev, without saying yes or no, but suggesting that it is likely.

More important than the reference to missiles is the demand for an invitation to join NATO, a measure ruled out by the Biden administration, not because it is an element of gratuitous provocation that would make any negotiation with Moscow impossible, but because it does not entail short-term effects. In other words, a formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO would not force Russia to stop the war or activate the collective defence clauses, so it would have no positive effect on the front. What is more, the announcement of a date for the expansion of the Alliance to the Russian border would give the Russian Federation legitimacy among its population to further intensify the war, especially missile attacks. However, the invitation is considered in kyiv to be the irreversible step it is seeking, hence the rush and the demand to achieve this objective immediately. To this end, and at the risk of offending Donald Trump, Zelensky has not been afraid to affirm that “it makes no sense” to talk about it with the president-elect, since it is Biden who has the decision-making capacity.

The Atlanticist question slightly separates the positions of Democrats and Trumpists. Theorists of the future president's team, who want to impose the America First policy , see NATO as an alliance that makes it impossible for any anti-hegemonic bloc to be created in Europe, contrary to the United States. To do this, Washington does not need an indefinite expansion, but rather a cordon sanitaire around the two potential opponent countries, Russia and Germany. Excessive expansion, criticized for example by Elbridge Colby, means a higher cost for the United States, which is the main reason for Donald Trump's complaints. This week, Trump replied "may be" to the question of whether his country will leave NATO, which has provoked worried headlines that have not understood that the threat is part of a public negotiation between allies. Donald Trump simply wants to maintain the Alliance - losing it would mean leaving the door open for countries to seek different alliances, unlikely today but not impossible in the future - at a lower cost. In that context, Ukraine's accession to the alliance is less likely under a Trump administration than under a Democratic Party administration, which understands NATO as a tool of the American version of internationalism as the expansion of Western-style forms of government (politically liberal, economically capitalist and privatizing).

Zelensky is running out of time to obtain the invitation he is seeking and will not receive, but he will use it to obtain better conditions from his allies in the event of negotiations. Ukraine has made it clear that it will not come to a dialogue table - at least with the intention of reaching some kind of agreement - until it is offered security guarantees that imply joining NATO or the presence of troops from the Alliance, a possibility that according to the Ukrainian president could be arranged once the invitation is received. There is no hurry to achieve peace or a ceasefire, only the urgent need is to obtain a clear promise of entry into the Alliance. Meanwhile, Russian troops are approaching Pokrovsk-Krasnoarmeysk from the south and are dangerously advancing both in Kurajovo and in the towns south of the city, further complicating the situation for Ukrainian troops on the military front, apparently the least important of those currently being fought by kyiv.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/12/11/dos-objetivos/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of repelling the attempted invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the territory of the Russian Federation in the Kursk Region (as of December 11, 2024)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to defeat the formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk Region.

- Units of the North group of forces during offensive actions liberated the settlements of Darino and Plekhovo , and also defeated the formations of three mechanized, heavy mechanized, two tank, two airborne assault brigades, a marine brigade and three territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Guevo, Lebedevka, Leonidovo, Malaya Loknya, Martynovka, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Nikolskoye, Novoivanovka and Sverdlikovo. - Strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation , artillery fire hit enemy manpower and equipment in the areas of the settlements of Alexandria, Kruglenke, Mirny, Nizhny Klin, as well as Basovka, Belovody, Vodolaghi, Veselovka and Zhuravka in the Sumy region. - Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 200 servicemen, a tank , three US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, seven vehicles and six mortars have been destroyed. One Ukrainian serviceman has surrendered. In total, during the military operations in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 39,860 servicemen, 235 tanks, 174 infantry fighting vehicles, 123 armored personnel carriers, 1,249 armored combat vehicles, 1,111 cars, 308 artillery pieces, 40 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including 11 HIMARS and six MLRS made in the USA, 13 anti-aircraft missile system launchers, seven transport and loading vehicles, 72 electronic warfare stations, 13 counter-battery radars, four air defense radars, 27 units of engineering and other equipment, including 13 engineering obstacle clearing vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit , as well as six armored repair and recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle. The operation to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces formations continues.

***

Colonelcassad
⚡️ Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 11 December 2024)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct a special military operation.

- Units of the North group of forces in the Kharkov direction inflicted defeat on the formations of the airborne assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the border detachment of the Border Service of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Pervomaysky and Alisovka, Kharkiv region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 25 servicemen and two 122 mm D-30 howitzers .

- Units of the West group of forces improved the tactical situation, inflicted defeat on the manpower and equipment of three mechanized , airmobile , assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a territorial defence brigade and two National Guard brigades in the areas of the settlements of Lozovaya, Zagryzovo, Kupyansk, Glushkovka in Kharkiv region, Terny in the Donetsk People's Republic and Serebryanskoye forestry. Repulsed 11 counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine units. The enemy lost up to 515 servicemen, three pickup trucks, a 122 mm D-30 howitzer and three 105 mm M119 guns made in the USA. An ammunition depot and an Anklav-N electronic warfare station were destroyed . - Units of the Southern Group of Forces took a more advantageous position and defeated formations of five mechanized and two airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Ulakly, Grigorovka, Seversk, Vasyukovka, Chasov Yar, Dachnoye, Kurakhovo, Annovka and Uspenovka of the Donetsk People's Republic. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 285 servicemen, a Kozak combat armored vehicle and a pickup truck. Two ammunition depots were destroyed . - Units of the "Center" group of forces continued to advance into the depths of the enemy's defense, inflicting losses on the manpower and equipment of three mechanized , two ranger , motorized infantry , assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a marine brigade.

Units of the Vostok group of forces improved the position along the forward edge, defeated the formations of two territorial defense brigades and a national guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Velyka Novosyolka, Konstantinopol, Vremyevka and Storozhevoe of the Donetsk People's Republic. Repulsed three counterattacks of the enemy assault groups. The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to 150 servicemen, combat armored vehicles HMMWV and "MaxxPro" made in the USA, three cars, a 155 mm self-propelled artillery mount "Bogdana" , two 152 mm self-propelled artillery mounts "Akatsiya" and a 122 mm self-propelled artillery mount "Gvozdika" . - Units of the "Dnepr" group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the infantry , mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Orekhov, Novopokrovka in the Zaporizhia region, Ponyatovka and Antonovka in the Kherson region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 40 servicemen, four cars and a 155 mm howitzer M777 made in the USA. - Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have defeated concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in the 141st area. - Air defense systems have shot down four projectiles from a US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system and 32 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 649 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 37,559 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,725 tanks and other combat armored vehicles, 1,500 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 19,411 field artillery guns and mortars, 29,138 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*****

Pokrovsk direction: fighting in Novotroitskoye
December 10, 2024
Rybar

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Russian troops continue their offensive south of Pokrovsk, forming a front for a future assault on the city.

Objective control footage has emerged confirming the presence of Russian units in Novotroitskoye .

It remains unclear from which side the fighters entered the territory of the livestock complex on the southern outskirts of the village. The route through the Sazonovka ravine is longer and passes through open terrain.

Therefore, it seems more logical to enter from the recently liberated Novopustynka to the eastern outskirts of Novotroitskoye , from where it was already possible to break through to the farms.

The complete liberation of Novotroitskoye will allow the Russian Armed Forces to cut off the T-05-15 highway , which connects the Pokrovskaya agglomeration with Kurakhovo .

It is not yet known whether there are any Ukrainian units remaining in Novotroitsk .

Enemy sources report that the village of Shevchenko , located further north, is no longer under their control.

The liberation of the village of Shevchenko , which is important for access to the southern outskirts of Pokrovsk , will create additional difficulties for the Ukrainian Armed Forces group and stretch their forces along the front.

https://rybar.ru/pokrovskoe-napravlenie ... troiczkom/

Kurakhovo direction: fighting in the center of Kurakhovo and advancement near Uspenovka
December 10, 2024
Rybar

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In the Kurakhovsky direction, Russian troops are attacking in several areas, continuing to build on the successes of previous days and simultaneously striking at enemy logistics.

In Kurakhovo, fighting is underway in the development: today footage emerged of the arming of a banner by fighters from the 5th separate motorized rifle brigade on the territory of the grain elevator. According to some reports, the organized resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the city is gradually fading away, disintegrating into separate pockets of defense.

In the Uspenovka area, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing along the O-05-10 highway from the south and north with the goal of encircling enemy forces in a "pocket" near the village. An attempt to enter the outskirts of Konstantinopolskoye is known, but the outcome of the assault is currently unclear. There are also battles near Annovka and Vesyoly Gai.

There is also a high level of activity in the use of Russian UAVs in the entire area, as a result of which the enemy is losing equipment both on the highway to Kurakhovo from the Dachnoye side and in the forest plantations between the settlements.

In particular, in the last few days alone, there have been about a dozen cases of successful fire damage by Russian Armed Forces operators to vehicles, artillery positions, and personnel of Ukrainian formations.

https://rybar.ru/kurahovskoe-napravleni ... uspenovki/

On the expansion of mobilization by the Kyiv regime
December 10, 2024
Rybar

The American administration continues to insist on the expansion of mobilization by the Kiev regime: the State Department stated that if the lower limit of conscription is lowered to 18 years, the United States and its allies are ready to “fully train and equip all recruits.”

Such formulations conceal conditions for the continuation or expansion of military aid to the Kiev regime. Ukrainian ruling circles understand this and are already hinting at the possibility of reducing the mobilization threshold from the current 25 years to 20 years.

On the one hand, such a step will lead to a certain influx of manpower and improve the position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front, especially in terms of the ratio of numbers with the Russian Armed Forces. However, the decision also has its pitfalls:

Due to long-standing demographic problems, there are not so many young people in the so-called Ukraine - a strong drop is noticeable in the age pyramid precisely in this category. It is unlikely that the combat formations of Ukrainian formations will be overwhelmed by 18-25 year olds.

In the current reality, a large-scale call-up of yesterday's schoolchildren and students is quite capable of leading to a social explosion in the so-called Ukraine, especially against the backdrop of the practice of "busification". They themselves, in large numbers, will prefer to hide until the last, even in the Chernobyl exclusion zone.

Finally, the motivation of the young recruits kidnapped by the TCC will be appropriate. If in 2022 the patriotic impulse inflated by the Kyiv regime worked, now after almost three years of fighting the morale is at a different level.

Be that as it may, the possible reduction of the mobilization age in the so-called Ukraine does not bode well for us, and especially not for the Ukrainian population, whose already sad demographics will simply be finished off.

In general, an interesting picture is emerging: at the beginning of the SVO, statements that the West would fight to the last Ukrainian were often perceived as propaganda or even conspiracy theories. Three years later, in the US, they are talking about this almost in plain text.

Rybar

https://rybar.ru/o-rasshirenii-mobiliza ... -rezhimom/

Google Translator

******

'After Pokrovsk, they will advance faster': Military newsletter

December 3-10. Kurakhove: The Shadow of Soledar or Bakhmut 2.0. Azov vs 'genHOMOsec' Mark Rutte. Sternenko vs Azov. The Velyka Novosylka, Kurakhove, and Pokrovsk fronts.

Events in Ukraine
Dec 10, 2024

In this week’s telegram roundup - peace:

Skepticism about peace plans from Azov military analyst R. Ponomarenko and Azov’s Tales of the IV Reich

Tales of the IV Reich takes on NATO chief Mark Rutte and the Netherlands - ‘the global capital of faggotry’

Tales focuses his ire on ex-army chief Zaluzhny, showing that Ukraine’[s bitter militarists are under few illusions regarding the various politicians claiming to speak for them. He also ridicules the military strength of NATO in a confrontation with Russia

Tales proposes mobilizing the Sorosite activists, and has an interesting analysis of the class structure of the army. Currently it is a ‘worker peasant army’, but recommends mobilizing the ‘petty and middle urban bourgeoisie’.

Tales reflects on ‘ZOG’ in the context of US demands to lower Ukrainian mobilization age. He also criticizes unwise Ukrainian jubilation around Syria

Azov telegrams attack the ‘Sorosite nazi’ Sternenko

And war -

The Velyka Novosylka front - possible encirclements, Russians dig in.

The Kurakhove front is given interesting analysis by the 46th Brigade and DeepState:

Increased Russian drone capacities relative to Ukraine’s forces

The similarity of the Kurakhove debacle to that of Bakhmut and Soledar - with the caveat that the logistical characteristics of Kurakhove seem to threaten remaining Ukrainian forces even more with encirclement

Encirclement is sometimes not the worst option - even worse is when the encirclement has an ‘opening’ which is controlled by Russian firepower, resulting in higher losses than simple encirclement

The mediatized component - soldiers die for Yermak’s presentation in Washington

Pokrovsk - Russian forces are finally at or near the outskirts of this crucial city

Aidar’s Buniatov: Logistics worsen with new Russian drone attacks reported on crucial roads

Buniatov: Mental and physical exhaustion of Ukrainian troops

Buniatov: Drones are the only thing holding back the enemy, given lack of Ukrainian manpower - unlike the Russians.

Buniatov: after Pokrovsk, whose loss everyone has resigned themselves to, the Russian army will move much more quickly

New scandals over unbuilt fortifications. According to top Ukrainian officers, ‘The faggots [Russians] are digging by hand under shelling faster than our idiots are with tractors in the rear.’. Apparently, there are no defenses once the Russians pass the border of the Donetsk region. It seems that Ukrainian frontline officers have a different opinion to the US military analysts interviewed by WaPo, who claim that Russia will slow down soon for terrain reasons.

Mariana Bezuhla describes the zombie brigades prepared in France, and promptly gutted once back in Ukraine

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... ll-advance

*****

(That's it for now, all eyes are on Syria)
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Dec 12, 2024 6:18 pm

Russia, Ukraine and geopolitical interests
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 12/12/2024

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After thirteen years of resistance in a war that began as a civil war but became international with the arrival of all kinds of Islamist groups sponsored from abroad long before Iran and Russia intervened to rescue the state, the Syrian Arab Republic collapsed like a house of cards to give way to an even more uncertain stage than that of the internal war, the fight against the Islamic State and the de facto cantonalization . Surprisingly, Abu Mohammed al Jolani’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the former Jabhat al Nursra, a local affiliate of al-Qaeda, managed to reach Damascus without the same army that had endured all kinds of attacks offering resistance. By then, President Bashar al Assad, who has not spoken publicly or officially resigned, had already fled, rescued by Moscow at the initiative of Vladimir Putin to avoid his capture and presumably lynching. As long as it was possible to fight, Assad remained in the country, even at times when defeat seemed close. Although the situation seemed stable for years, time has shown that the Iranian and Russian intervention only delayed what happened this week. In the end, while waiting to see if it will be able to negotiate the continuation of its presence in Syria, where it has two important bases and its only presence in the Mediterranean, Russia has only been able to do for Assad what it was unable to do for Najibullah, who years after the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan would end up murdered, tortured, mutilated and displayed with his corpse hanging from a road sign as the final humiliation of the Taliban.

Although the situation is uncertain and Jolani has not yet consolidated power over the entire country, it has become clear that he will be the one who will have to deal with the many groups with competing interests that have fought over the past decade and a half, sometimes on the same side because of a common enemy, and sometimes against each other. Added to this are the interests of the countries that are now more directly involved. With the former al-Qaeda affiliate turned by the press into “Turkish-backed rebels,” which made possible the lightning advance on Aleppo that led to the overthrow of the government and the effective disappearance of the state, the question quickly arises as to what will happen to the east of the country, under Kurdish control. From the Golan Heights it illegally occupies, it is Israel that advances south of Damascus, securing Mount Hermon, from which it will have a privileged position to control both southern Syria and southern Lebanon. Although both Türkiye and Israel have emerged stronger from the disappearance of one of their main rivals and enemies in the region, it is Tel Aviv that has actually achieved all of its objectives.

In geopolitical terms, Iran, Russia and Hezbollah are undoubtedly the ones who have lost the most in this struggle in which they have used their own resources and shed their own blood. It seems no coincidence that the Islamist blitzkrieg occurred at a time when none of the three actors was in a position to support the Syrian army, worn down after more than ten years of war, sanctions and impoverishment. It was the cumulative intervention of all these parties that sustained the Syrian state against the Islamic State and the different Salafist groups, now disappeared in the form in which it had been sustained in recent decades. The unmitigated defeat, which can only be mitigated for Russia if it reaches an agreement to maintain its presence in the country - which will necessarily imply the recognition of an Islamist government - has not yet been explained by Moscow, which sticks to the narrative of a coup d'état, without giving further explanations.

Although the actual state of the Assad government, the Syrian army, or the agreements and negotiations between the different interests at stake are not known, the analyses have come as quickly as one would expect. Perhaps no country has been in such a hurry to boast of what it seems to see as its own victory as Ukraine. “The rapid collapse of the reputation and positions of Iran’s ‘Russian strategic partner’ in the Middle East, together with the rapid fall of the pro-Russian Assad regime in Syria, clearly demonstrates two key points. First, if you are looking for rules and stability, never make concessions to dictators or accept their conditions. Second, there is no ‘Russia’ worth negotiating with or working out ‘large multi-component agreements’ to preserve the bloody image of the Russian Federation,” Mikhail Podolyak said on Monday, just 24 hours after the fall of Damascus.

The argument of the President's Office adviser is not based on facts but on geopolitical and propaganda needs. Despite being economically and militarily much stronger, Russia is presented as an ally of Iran, whose weight kyiv tries to exaggerate in order to get greater interest in its cause from Donald Trump. Ukraine is not a priority for the president-elect, but the precedent of his first term shows that Iran is, which is why the Ukrainian government has not stopped trying to create a Moscow-Tehran axis to which it has recently added Pyongyang. The aim is twofold: to insist that fighting Russia is also fighting Iran, and to present the wars in Europe and the Middle East as a single conflict being fought in two theatres of operations - three if one includes China and Korea, or four if one adds the Russian presence in Africa and wants to artificially seek a world war that has already begun - and which the West must simultaneously wage against an axis that seeks to destroy it, the umpteenth reformulation of the threat of the Asian hordes that has been used so many times in Europe. In this struggle in which the free world would be playing for its survival, concessions cannot be made to Russia, because that does not guarantee stability. In the Syrian case, it was precisely the Russian presence that guaranteed for years a certain normalisation of life for a significant part of the Syrian population. However, in the same way that in Ukrainian discourse peace means victory , stability means control by its main ally, the United States, or by governments supported by Washington.

Ukraine does not only want to be present in the media by linking the two wars and creating a struggle between the Western bloc and the authoritarian axis - Ukraine does not stop denouncing, for example, the use of Iranian drones and North Korean troops that remain unseen - but it wants to be a protagonist in it. "Russian troops, having lost personnel and equipment, are hastily leaving their only distant base abroad," Podolyak wrote these days, inventing an escape that did not take place and losses denied by satellite images, which show complete normality (considering the circumstances) at Russian bases. Russia's weakness must be shown, even if this means using, in Trumpian style, alternative facts or inventing reality. The reason for this weakness is, of course, Ukraine. “Without the Wagner private military company, which was defeated in Ukraine, without the Russian warplanes shot down by the Ukrainians, without the sinking of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet, the criminal regime of the Assad dynasty would have lost control of the country it has ruled since the 1970s in a matter of days,” Podolyak boasts. For the adviser to the President’s Office, it is irrelevant that Russia has not weakened without Wagner in Ukraine – as shown by the increased pace of progress on the front – that the Russian ground presence was limited and less important than the Iranian one, that the bulk of the aviation was withdrawn by 2022 or that the naval presence in Tartus played a completely residual role in the Syrian war.

“Ukrainian-trained, Turkish-sponsored Syrian rebels lead assault on Aleppo,” The Kiev Post proudly announced on December 1. The fight against Russia justifies everything, and Ukraine has not hesitated to claim its share of success in Syria, in this case by supporting the former al-Qaeda affiliate, or in Mali, by partially claiming as its own an attack by JNIM, a jihadist terrorist group born, among others, from al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, against Wagner soldiers. Non-existent or minimal, Ukraine tries to exploit its participation in every battle against Russia, thus showing its weight in a war that it considers global and in which Moscow must play the role of Carthage.

In this game of self-importance, Ukraine knows that it can always count on its usual allies, in this case Washington Post journalist David Ignatius , for whom every US proxy fights for the common good and must be defended at all costs. “Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 drones with first-person view to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four or five weeks ago to assist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the main rebel group based there, the sources familiar with the matter said,” he says in his latest article, without paying attention to the origin or ideology of Jolani’s group or questioning the appropriateness of sending advisers abroad at a time when the Ukrainian Armed Forces are in a compromised position. It is curious that Kiev has drones to support Jolani’s effort when its own commanders are complaining about Russian drones dominating the skies, costing Ukraine the Battle of Kurajovo. “Faced with a Russian attack inside its country, Ukrainian intelligence has looked for other fronts where it can bloody Russia’s nose and undermine its clients,” Ignatius insists, cheering on Ukraine’s presence alongside groups with a more than questionable ideology and which his own country considers terrorists. “Ukraine’s covert aid program in Syria has been an open secret, although senior Biden administration officials repeatedly said in response to my questions that they were not aware of it,” he alleges, corroborating the Ukrainian narrative and accepting without any doubt the figures of his sources, despite the fact that his interest is precisely to exaggerate this presence. However, even Ignatius is forced to admit that “kyiv’s aid only played a modest role in the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al Assad, according to Western intelligence sources.” However, after a small dose of realism – evident given that the collapse has been more of the state than of the army, which simply has not fought – the journalist returns to the triumphalist narrative that kyiv so badly needs at the moment. Ukraine’s role may have been limited, “but it was notable as part of a broader Ukrainian effort to covertly hit Russian operations in the Middle East, Africa and within Russia itself.”

Geopolitical needs and the war against Russia justify everything, including exaggerating the role of kyiv's struggle alongside jihadist groups persecuted by the West.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/12/12/rusia ... politicos/

Google Translator

*******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/12/ ... 382bde.jpg

On the night drone raid on Crimea

Last night, Ukrainian forces attacked Crimea again .

But it was not a “massive and terrifying” attack, as Ukrainian resources called it. The Ukrainian Armed Forces used only eight drones.

The air threat in Crimea and Sevastopol lasted for more than two hours because the enemy launched drones one by one, but no more. Because of this, the air defense work was prolonged.

The first UAV was shot down by a Su-34 fighter 30 km west of Cape Tarkhankut . The next one was shot down two hours later in the area of ​​Cape Khersones in Sevastopol - apparently, it was flying to Sevastopol Bay.

Then two UAVs were destroyed on approach to the Balaklava Thermal Power Plant , another drone - over Cape Fiolent from the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun system. Half an hour later, two more drones were suppressed 5 km west of Sevastopol and another was shot down in the area of ​​the thermal power plant.

The attack was expected and completely standard without any changes. It is not entirely clear what type of drones were used. We do not rule out that these were again the same "know-how" of the Ukrainian regime, which intercepted the MiG-29 the day before yesterday .

However, the danger of new attacks remains. The enemy's actions show that they are preparing for massive raids and missile strikes , so it is better to remain vigilant in the next few days.

***

Colonelcassad
⚡️ Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 12 December 2024)

— Units of the North group of forces in the Kharkov direction defeated formations of the territorial defence brigade near the settlement of Volchansk in the Kharkov region.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 65 servicemen and an armoured combat vehicle .

— Units of the West group of forces improved their tactical situation, defeated the manpower and equipment of a tank, two mechanized, and an airmobile brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two territorial defence brigades and a National Guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Dvurechnaya, Glushkovka, Zagryzovo, Lozovaya, Kupyansk, Zeleny Gai in the Kharkov region, Terny in the Donetsk People's Republic, as well as Serebryanskoye forestry. Seven counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were repelled.

The enemy lost up to 410 servicemen, a tank , a pickup truck , two 105-mm M119 guns , 155-mm M777 and M198 howitzers made in the USA, a 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery unit , a 122-mm D-30 howitzer and an ammunition depot . — Units of the Southern Group of Forces continued to advance deep into the enemy’s defenses, defeated formations of two mechanized, a motorized infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Minkovka, Chasov Yar, Ostrovskoe, Annovka, Uspenovka and Kurakhovo of the Donetsk People’s Republic. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 295 servicemen, two armored combat vehicles and a pickup truck . — As a result of decisive actions by units of the Center Group of Forces, the settlement of Zarya of the Donetsk People’s Republic was liberated. The manpower and equipment of three mechanized, motorized infantry, and Jaeger brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a marine brigade, a national guard brigade, and the Lyut assault brigade of the Ukrainian National Police were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Dzerzhinsk, Shcherbinovka, Mirolyubovka, and Shevchenko of the Donetsk People's Republic. Nine counterattacks by armed formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled. The enemy lost up to 390 servicemen, a tank , two vehicles, a Polish-made 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Krab" , two 152-mm howitzers "Msta-B" , a 122-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Gvozdika" , and two 122-mm howitzers D-30 .

— Units of the Vostok group of forces improved the position along the forward edge, defeated the formations of the mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Velyka Novosyolka, Storozhevoe, Razliv and Komar of the Donetsk People's Republic. Three counterattacks of the enemy assault groups were repelled.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 150 servicemen, two vehicles, two self-propelled artillery units 155-mm "Bogdana" and 152-mm "Akatsiya" , as well as a 122-mm howitzer D-30 .

— Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Mykhailivka and Nikolskoye of the Kherson region.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 35 servicemen, two vehicles, a 122-mm howitzer D-30 and an electronic warfare station

. — Operational-tactical aviation, attack unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups destroyed a workshop producing attack unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 137 areas .

— Air defense systems shot down four US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system projectiles and 37 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles .

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed : 649 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 37,596 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,730 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,500 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles, 19,482 field artillery pieces and mortars, 29,146 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

SITREP 12/11/24: Zelensky Draws Line with US in Mobilization Impasse
Dec 11, 2024

The main narrative line of interest today comes by way of the tensions which have come to a boil over the US and Zelensky’s disagreement on lowering the age of mobilization. For months now it has simmered until reportedly coming to a full-on clash:

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/202 ... ationship/

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https://archive.ph/B49eT

This is the one area Zelensky has shown backbone of late, completely refusing to bend to his masters’ will on this issue, partly because he’s aware the trap being set for him. Washington wants nothing more than to use Ukrainian cannon fodder to weaken Russia and Zelensky is finally catching up to the ploy: now he’s only willing to lower the age in a quid pro quo for much more military arms.

He made this much known in an official post:

There’s a lot of discussion in the media about lowering the draft age for Ukrainians to go to the frontlines. We must focus on equipping existing brigades and training personnel to use this equipment. We must not compensate the lack of equipment and training with the youth of soldiers.

The priority should be providing missiles and lowering Russia’s military potential, not Ukraine’s draft age. The goal should be to preserve as many lives as possible, not to preserve weapons in storages.


The decision was first broken by Ukrainian Pravada last month:

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https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/11/19/7485250/

Wherein Zelensky tried to calm public fears of an impending mobilization with a speech at the Rada, stating:

]And no need for speculation: our state is not planning to lower mobilisation age. We have to use a new approach to [army] contracts to gradually rely on contracts rather than mobilisation to shape our army."

Details: Zelenskyy also said that he has instructed the Ministry of Defence and military leadership to select and appoint a new Military Ombudsman (Commissioner). He stressed that defence forces have to have internal resources to address the issue of soldiers’ rights violation.


The claimed workaround would be to totally redesign the conscription process to include—according to other Ukrainian officials—better “incentives” to voluntarily join, as well as various new PR campaigns to spur volunteers.

The problem is, a new BBC piece laid out a devastating data point: that Ukraine actually has very few under-25s due to the fact that the 90s saw a sharp decrease in birthrates. We’ve covered this before here, but essentially it means the cohort of males born from the mid to late 90s onward is very small compared to the older groups.

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As such, BBC implies that lowering the mobilization may not be enough to succeed as it would not yield as many men as necessary.

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https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cn4x8j53983o

The article likewise again confirms that current mobilization no longer even covers losses. Since we’ve seen official figures of 20-30k monthly mobilizations, we can infer losses are higher than that.

Sources of the Ukrainian service of the BBC in the General Staff previously reported that the current rate of mobilization does not cover even losses.

BBC links to another of their own articles which showed proof that Ukraine has already been forcibly mobilizing men under 25 in many cases.

BBC Ukraine has found out why such situations arise and under what conditions men under 25 can be mobilized.

The main conclusion is that due to legislative nuances, boys under 25 who are unfit for service in peacetime due to health problems and have documented this, can be mobilized in wartime.

There’s even a whole other category of reservists under-25 eligible for mandatory mobilization:

Currently, persons liable for military service between the ages of 25 and 60 and reservists (even if they are under 25 but have served in the regular army) are mobilized to serve in the Armed Forces, but not conscripts (except for volunteers). During martial law, there is no conscript service in Ukraine.

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The big question is, how large has this ‘stealth’ mobilization of under-25s actually been, and what percentage has it already mobilized? Perhaps, for all we know, Zelensky has already tapped the under-25 pool to such an extent there’s not much left there, which could explain his aversion to ‘officially’ undersigning mobilization of a cohort he’s already secretly plundered.

This slant is somewhat supported by an interesting portion of the opening Telegraph article, which states:

Mobilising men is out of the question

For Kyiv, mobilising men between 18 and 24 is completely out of the question.

The age group makes up less than 10 per cent of Ukraine’s population, with around two million men making up that pool.

In comparison, 25-54-year-olds constitute approximately 44 per cent of the 36.7 million population.


Think about that logically for a second: the 18-24 cohort is the smallest, yet the largest cohort of the 25-54 year olds has already run dry to the point of requiring the opening of a new tap. So if the largest one is decimated, how quickly would the smallest one face the same fate?

This line of thinking is further supported by the addition in the article that the lowering of mobilization age from 27 to 25 was expected to net 200k troops. So: 200k for the two-year block. But recall, the under-25 cohort has the smallest population. Let’s say it remains 200k or less for each additional two-year span. That means from 25 to 23, 23 to 21, 21 to 19 should consequently net under 600k more troops—or realistically, far less; at least if we’re going by the article’s implications. Realistically, they further imply Ukraine has mobilized far less than desired, and so each two-year block may in fact net them as little as 100k or even less, which would imply another 300k maximum men available. This would buy Ukraine what, another year or year-and-a-half at most?

Either way, it has now come to a deadlock where the US is essentially making the mobilization an imperative condition of further weapons deliveries, while Ukraine is countering: weapons first before mobilization. Who will win this game of ‘chicken’?

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However, for the sake of full fairness, we present the new MediaZona ‘study’ which claims that Russia, too, is now suffering from a major decline of recruitments:

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https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/12/04 ... nlistments

Using alleged federal budget data for recruitment bonuses, they’ve come up with this chart:

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According to this, first and second quarter of 2024 achieved about 70k and 95k recruitments, which would be ~23,000 to ~33,000 per month. Recall Russian officials repeatedly gave a figure of about ~30k per month recruitment.

Now MediaZona claims it has dipped to around 40k a quarter, which would be a mere ~13k a month—but they admit there’s still room for it to reach its previous number if “signing bonuses are added to the report late.”

Firstly, there may be a delay between a contract being signed, the signing bonus being paid out, and the inclusion of these expenses in budget reports. One indirect indication of this is the sharp rise in payments reported in the final quarter of each year, when the budget must be “closed out.”

In short, according to the above, they may be trying to make a ‘crisis’ out of an accounting technicality. Toward the end, using another methodology, they admit the new number could be around 83k, which is still almost 28,000 per month—not exactly a catastrophic drop.

In fact, there are easy explanations for why Russia would not be gunning for previous highs: not only have Russian ‘reserve armies’ already been filled—which were a previous objective—but even Russian losses appear to be at conflict lows, contrary to Western screeching.

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https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

Note: the last few months always get ‘revised up’ later as losses are confirmed retroactively, but it still paints a fairly mild picture.

Ukrainian propagandists, like this ex-Forbes writer, on the other hand, continue to tell wildly tall tales. Here it is claimed that the battle of Pokrovsk, thus far, has generated some of the largest Russian losses “in history” compared with any previous military conflict:

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The graphic claims over 150,000 Russian troops and almost 2,000 armored vehicles were lost just in the Pokrovsk direction alone, which begins to compare to the Battle of Stalingrad, amongst others. Wow!

Songs will be sung.

(Much more at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... draws-line
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Dec 13, 2024 1:09 pm

Peace and its conditions
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 12/13/2024

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Last week, the US president-elect announced that Ukraine was ready to reach an agreement with Russia. His words were quickly contradicted by Volodymyr Zelensky, whose team has been insisting all week that not any peace will be acceptable. The maxim that a bad peace is better than a war is not valid after years of fighting, something that was also felt for years by the population of Donbass, who never looked favourably on the Minsk agreements, which would have returned them to Ukrainian control, albeit with certain political rights. Years of war and hardship could not be brought to a false close with an agreement in which Donbass did not obtain a minimum political autonomy - Minsk did not offer it despite Ukraine and its partners having been saying otherwise for years - and a guarantee that the political, cultural and linguistic rights of the population would be respected, which were left at the mercy of Ukraine's will. The same can now be said by kyiv, which is seeking not to end the war in a false way, something that is fully agreed with Moscow, which does not want to find itself in a situation of armed peace similar to that in Korea, with two strongly entrenched sides, NATO on its borders and high possibilities of a new outbreak of hostilities that could not be just a proxy war but a direct one with kyiv's allies.

However, the Ukrainian complaints are not due to fear of an incomplete peace agreement or a possible resumption of the war, but to the certainty that negotiations under the current conditions would force Ukraine to cross the red lines it has drawn, explicitly or not, since 2014, whether on the territorial issue, the NATO issue, or even both. Russia is advancing slowly but steadily on the Donbass front, threatening absolutely key positions for Ukraine, regaining ground by approaching Suya in Kursk (the only significant stronghold under Ukrainian control in the Russian oblast ) and the passage of time may not improve Kiev's negotiating position. “The Kremlin will probably stop where it achieves what it considers more important than territory – Ukraine’s neutrality, demilitarisation and linguistic, religious and cultural rights [for Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population] – but it will continue to use territory as a punishment for intransigence, which has been its method since the start of open war,” wrote Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin this week after comments by intelligence chief Sergey Naryshkin that Russia is close to achieving its goals. The comment again indicates something that Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov have repeatedly repeated – that Russia is ready to negotiate on the basis of the Istanbul agreements. This was repeated yesterday during his visit to China by Dmitry Medvedev, who is much tougher than the president or the foreign minister of the Russian Federation and is considered one of the Kremlin’s hawks.

In territorial terms, Ragozin points to two possible targets: the Pokrovsk mine, on whose coking coal the Ukrainian metallurgical industry depends, and the Shevchenko lithium deposit. Russia is 8 kilometres from the mine and 11 from the deposit. According to the journalist, its capture would give Russia a certain control over important economic power groups. The danger of losing these important positions should also act as an incentive for kyiv and as a warning about the possibility of its negotiating position weakening even further. However, the virtual certainty that the next few weeks will not change the balance on the front, with Russia increasingly strengthened as Ukraine slowly retreats in the ground war and fails to do damage to the Russian rear with its Western missiles is not an argument that can, for the moment, force kyiv to modify its position. Yesterday, the head of the President's Office reaffirmed Ukraine's refusal to negotiate under the current conditions. Andriy Ermak insisted that kyiv was not strong enough, that dialogue was not feasible at the moment and that Ukraine needed to be strengthened - that is, by sending more weapons, especially missiles, committing to future aid and offering the long-awaited invitation to join NATO - to make possible a negotiation in which it would be possible to dictate the terms to Russia, which has been Ukraine's target since the war began in 2014.

The concessions that Russia would now demand would not be comparable to the minimum conditions of Minsk, only political, and would go beyond what was offered in Istanbul. Moscow has made it clear that it is willing to negotiate on the territorial issue, although not on the conditions that Ermak proposed last week: the return to the borders of February 2022. Negotiation is possible, but not a return to two years ago, especially when Ukraine is unable, despite the constant flow of millions of dollars in arms and ammunition, to really threaten the Russian position at the front or in the rear and is forced to publicly negotiate the terms of the future even with its allies. Despite its position of weakness, Ukraine insists on a maximum position also with its defenders. kyiv does not even consider Emmanuel Macron's proposal to send a contingent of some 40,000 European troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire to be sufficient - another escalation initiative disguised as a search for peace, but which, according to Ermak, will only be possible once the official invitation to join NATO is received.

The displays of support from EU countries, which are willing to increase their military spending to 3% of GDP instead of the 2% that NATO demands and that Donald Trump has been demanding for years, contrast with the skepticism of a part of Trumpism. To Zelensky’s chagrin, the president’s closest circle is not only made up of men who want to continue fueling the war, but also those who consider Ukraine a burden. Among them are Elon Musk, JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr, who yesterday published a gif in which a boot kicked down the cover of Time magazine’s man of the year with Zelensky on it to make way for his father dancing and showing off his red “America First” cap.

The report announcing that the future president of the United States is the man of 2024 is the first in which Trump really speaks out on the situation in Ukraine and, above all, the most recent Western escalation. The president-elect's confidence in his ability to resolve the conflict quickly seems to have disappeared and he now claims that "the Middle East is an easier problem to deal with than what is happening in Russia and Ukraine." "I totally disagree with sending missiles hundreds of miles inside Russia. Why are we doing that?" he says, as quoted by Time . Trump, who has shown in the past that he does not have the necessary knowledge to understand the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and who in his first term was unable to take any steps towards peace in a conflict, that of Donbass, which is much easier to resolve, seems not to want to hear what his own advisers have publicly proposed: the use of permission to attack Russia as a tool to pressure the Kremlin in search of a better negotiating situation for Ukraine. His comments last week about kyiv's willingness to compromise also show that Trump does not perceive that the goal is not peace but victory, however unlikely that may be, and that cumulative death and destruction are considered the lesser evil.

Ukraine’s aggressive response to Hungary’s last initiative before it leaves the rotating presidency of the European Union is a good example of kyiv’s uncompromising stance. Viktor Orbán was looking for a final propaganda effect and after his meeting with Donald Trump, he talked to the Russian president about a Christmas ceasefire and a large prisoner exchange, an initiative quickly rejected by Ukraine, even more upset by the Hungarian leader’s call to Moscow than by the conversation between Olaf Scholz and Vladimir Putin. Dmytro Lytvyn, communication advisor to Volodymyr Zelensky, posted Ukraine’s response to the press’ question about the assessment of the possible Christmas truce on social media. “The answer is: 1) As always, Hungary has not discussed anything with Ukraine. 2) As always, Hungary has not notified us about its contacts with Moscow. 3) As always, Ukraine has not authorized Hungary to represent it in any way. 4) As always, Ukraine is working daily to free prisoners, and over the past two weeks, active contacts have been underway for a major exchange by the end of the year. 5) As always, we are committed to achieving real and lasting peace and are doing everything possible in coordination with our partners to make this happen, together with the US, Europe and other partners. 6) As always, we need real peace, not PR stunts, and strong security guarantees, not empty words.”

kyiv remains firm in its position of equating peace with victory, so no ceasefire or even temporary cessation of hostilities is possible – even if it could prevent Russian advances, relieve troops or alleviate the dire situation for entire units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass – if all the stated objectives are not achieved. Any step that hinders this discourse is considered a betrayal and must be criticized and its executor humiliated. Even if this means Ukraine runs the risk of further straining its relationship with the man from whom it will soon demand more weapons, ammunition, funding and the long-awaited invitation to join NATO.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/12/13/la-pa ... ndiciones/

Google Translator

(Sustained peace can only come with Russian tanks in Odessa, bedecked with flowers.)

******

Attack on Ukraine. 13.12.2024
December 13, 13:57

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Scheme of the missile and drone strike on Ukraine on the morning of December 13, 2024.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the strike was carried out in response to the shelling of Taganrog.
After the strike, half of Ukraine was left without power. The Kiev regime urgently asked the EU to increase the flow of electricity.
It is also reported that in addition to generating and distribution capacities, command posts, airfields and infrastructure facilities were hit. OTRKs, cruise missiles and hypersonic Kinzhals were used. New types of missiles such as the Oreshnik were not used.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9548837.html

Offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces 2023-2024
December 13, 13:02

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10.12.24 Offensive operation of the RF Armed Forces - Square

On October 10, 2023, the offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces began. Over 14 months of the offensive, 3,072 km² (+528 km² from November 10, 2024) of territory came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces in the SVO zone with a daily advance rate of +7.18 km² (+0.79 km² from November 10) on average for the entire offensive.

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Graphs of territorial control for November and the percentage of progress in various directions of the Russian Armed Forces' offensive are provided.

Map https://goo.gl/maps/4eum5C9giNDebgXf7

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7780 - zinc

In the coming weeks, the enemy will experience a serious betrayal in the area of ​​Kurakhovo and Krasnoarmeysk.
The command of the OTG "Donbass" was removed yesterday.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9548722.html

Trump on peace talks with Putin
December 12, 23:01

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Trump on peace talks with Putin

"I can't say whether I called Vladimir Putin after I was elected. It's just inappropriate. The reason I don't want to discuss it is because as a negotiator, I first come up with a very good plan to help. But when I start laying out that plan, it often turns out to be almost useless.

The war in Ukraine would never have happened if I had been President. It would never have happened. I had a meeting recently with a group of government officials. They came and briefed me, and I'm not exaggerating, that the number of soldiers who have died in the last month is staggering - both Russians and Ukrainians. The numbers are about equal. You know, I know a lot of people say the opposite, but they are about equal. The number of dead young soldiers lying in fields all over the country is staggering. It's crazy what's happening.

It's crazy. I strongly disagree with launching missiles hundreds of miles into Russia. Why are we doing that? We're only fueling this war and We are making it worse. This should not have happened. Now they are producing not only missiles but other types of weapons. I think this is a very big mistake. But the level of death is unacceptable, and I am talking about both sides. It is better for both sides if this stops.

I want to come to an agreement, and the only way to do that is to not give in. You know what I mean, right? In my opinion, you cannot reach an agreement if you go back on your word. And I disagree with all this because it should never have happened. Putin would never have invaded Ukraine if I were President, for many reasons. First of all, they raised the price of oil. When the price of oil went up, it was profitable for him, and the price of oil had to go down. If the price

had gone down, the war would not have started, at least for economic reasons. But when the price reaches 80, 85, 90 dollars a barrel... I mean, he made money, he made a lot of money. I'm not saying it's good because he suffered too, but they keep moving forward. You know, this is war, this is tragedy. This is death, which is much worse than anyone can imagine. When the real numbers come out, you won't believe your eyes. (c) Agent Donald.

Don't have any illusions about peace talks with Trump.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9548192.html

Retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and ethnic cleansing
December 12, 21:00

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ETHNIC CLEANSING: UKRAINIAN ARMY RESORT TO 'SCORTED EARTH' TACTICS IN RETREAT
( Collapse )

Over the past few months, in addition to news about the advance of Russian troops and the consistent retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from a number of populated areas, there have been reports of brutal reprisals against civilians by Ukrainian soldiers and officers.

It is difficult to accept such information at face value, which resembles military propaganda from one of the parties (in this case, Russia). Unfortunately, many facts are confirmed by eyewitness accounts, photo and video surveillance data. There is a cruel but iron logic to the reprisals. The Ukrainian Armed Forces intend to give the Russians a "scorched earth" on which no one should live. And if anyone remains there, old people, women, children - it does not matter, then they are automatically classified as spies and provocateurs, who are only subject to execution.
Ukrainian officials indignantly report that the population that left the territories now under Russian control is returning home. The first to announce this on October 23 was ombudsman Dmytro Shulyak, who complained about the socio-economic difficulties that refugees face. The chairperson of the ruling party "Servant of the People" Olena Shulyak confirmed the information from her namesake, adding that Russia makes large payments to victims for destroyed property. A person who left Mariupol or Volnovakha and returned to the ruins has the right to receive a subsidy of 45 thousand rubles (406 euros) per square meter. Thus, for an apartment of 60 square meters, the Russian government will pay 2 million 700 thousand rubles (more than 24 thousand euros), which is a significant amount for people who have lost their homes.

According to the former mayor of Mariupol Vadym Boychenko, about a third of the refugees have already returned to the city. The Ukrainian government was unable to provide them with housing, and Russia restored the destroyed areas in a short time. Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada deputy Maksym Tkachenko said that 150,000 people have returned to the "occupied" lands, 70,000 of whom have returned to Mariupol. These reports have caused a storm of criticism and indignation from the top Ukrainian leadership. Tkachenko was pressured, and he took his words back. Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk said: the return of refugees to their homes, to the "Russian-occupied" territories "is not and cannot be." However, these words sound like empty justifications [for the sad results of Ukraine's short-sighted policy].

Another problem for Kiev is the passive waiting of the civilian population for the arrival of Russian troops. Former member of parliament and member of the ultra-nationalist battalion "Azov" Igor Mosiychuk told journalists that many Ukrainian citizens are rushing to register their permanent residence in such frontline towns as Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) and Chasov Yar. The calculation is clear: with a high degree of probability, these settlements will be occupied by the Russian army, and those who had Ukrainian registration there will receive the right to Russian citizenship and compensation for lost housing. For the Ukrainian leadership, such actions are akin to high treason.

This is most likely what is behind the brutal purges in the frontline zones carried out by Ukrainian troops and Western mercenaries. During the retreat from Selidovo (Donetsk People's Republic), Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters deliberately killed civilians who refused to be evacuated to the rear. According to the testimonies of the townspeople, the reprisals were carried out against entire families. RIA Novosti military correspondents filmed a man who miraculously escaped being a victim of the purge. His family members were killed by the Ukrainian military: “I don’t know how my legs carried me out. And when I came back, I saw that they [the relatives] had already been burned. Completely.”

Video: https://t.me/opersvodki/23963
Video: https://t.me/rian_ru/270343

Ambassador-at-Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry Rodion Miroshnik promised to thoroughly investigate these crimes and announced the first results of the investigative actions. To date, 15 people have already spoken about the reprisals in the town of Selidovo - all the witnesses are residents of this settlement. The townspeople named the specific streets where the crimes were committed, as well as the names of the people killed. The circumstances of the death of 50 civilians are known. Moreover, not only the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters took part in the cleansing, but also foreign mercenaries. Residents of Selidovo heard Polish speech and saw people in Ukrainian uniform, but without identification marks. It has also been proven that French mercenaries also took part in the shooting of civilians.

Video: https://t.me/rian_ru/270429
Video: https://southfront.press/in-video-frenc ... -selidovo/

The International Public Tribunal for Ukraine (created in March 2022, investigates the crimes of Ukrainian neo-Nazis and their accomplices; consists of representatives of civil society from more than 20 countries) provides horrific details of what happened. Selidovo resident Volodymyr Romanenko told representatives of this public organization the following:

“On October 24 this year, my family was shot by Ukrainian soldiers right next to our house. At 7 a.m., I went out into the garden and heard shouts: “Everyone get out of the house!” A man in Ukrainian camouflage was shouting, and there was another one standing a little further away. They took my wife, grandson, son, daughter-in-law, and her mother out of the house and put them facing the wall. My daughter-in-law was crying, “What are you doing?” The Ukrainian soldier just started shooting. First, he killed my wife, then the rest. I ran through the garden and hid. A few days later, I returned to the house. At the place where they were shot, I found remains - burnt bodies, bone fragments, and personal belongings. I collected everything I could into five bags and buried them near the entrance. This is all that is left of my family.”

Video: https://t.me/maximgrigoryev/8241

Another testimony was provided by Natalia Ravinskaya, a resident of Selidovo:

“In Selidovo, in house No. 12 on Shchorsa Street, a Ukrainian sniper or mercenary opened fire on civilians. Many of our friends died in the yard. People tried to come out of hiding to cover the bodies of the dead, and they themselves became victims. The sniper in house No. 12 killed about 20 people. In our yard, we counted at least 8 dead. In house No. 19 on the same street, Ukrainian soldiers broke into apartments and shot civilians. We heard Georgian speech: they shouted, offered help, but in fact they killed.
On Kuchurinskaya Street, Ukrainian soldiers entered the house, took the whole family outside and lined them up against the wall. They shot everyone on the spot. Grandfather survived. He hid for several days and then returned to bury his loved ones. The bodies were burned. He collected the remains, put them in bags, wrote down the names and buried them all in one grave. And there are many like that. You go into the yard, there is a grave, there is a grave. A Ukrainian soldier shot an elderly woman in the street: he simply turned around, shot her in the head and left. Ukraine has always disliked Donbass. We have always been outcasts for them, and since 2014 this hatred has only intensified."

Video: https://t.me/maximgrigoryev/8237

Ukrainian soldiers and mercenaries are especially cruel in the Kursk region, where they a priori place "collective guilt" on the entire civilian population. Radio intercepts carried out by the Russian side indicate mass executions of civilians in the area of ​​the border settlement of Plekhovo. Intercepted conversations between the command and servicemen of the 253rd separate assault battalion of the 129th territorial defense brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have leaked online, where an order is directly given to shoot 34 civilians, including the elderly.

Video: https://t.me/boris_rozhin/145222

Earlier, Russian journalists published horrific testimonies of people who managed to escape from the territories occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Slavik Aloyan, a resident of the village of Blagovatnoye (Kursk region) says: “The Ukrainian Armed Forces are shooting everyone. I don’t know why. They are shooting everyone. Civilians are dying. That day, many civilians were shot both in the village and in Korenevo. Andrey was in the hospital with me. He was evacuating civilians. He saw how people were shot. He miraculously survived, the sabotage and reconnaissance group was also shooting at him, at civilians. The Ukrainian Armed Forces shot many civilians on the bridge that day.”

Unfortunately, there are many such stories. The International Public Tribunal for Ukraine has already published dozens of testimonies of ordinary people – pensioners, adults, teenagers. The mournful list of atrocities committed by the Ukrainian military and foreign mercenaries not only highlights the cynicism of the military aid provided to Kiev by the United States and the European Union, but also demonstrates that the “truce” dreamed of by some Western politicians is impossible. As the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin emphasized, Russia is against “freezing” the conflict. Signing a peace treaty following the war is clearly impossible without a trial of those who committed crimes against civilians - this is Moscow's firm position.

https://southfront.press/withdrawal-and ... h-tactics/ - original in English

Plus a summary of material from Maksym Grigoriev for 2022-2024 from Maksym Grigoriev, who has been actively researching and documenting the topic of war crimes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other Ukrainian structures since 2014.
You can download it here https://t.me/maximgrigoryev/8289 There are also many testimonies of direct witnesses of war crimes, as well as prisoners, on the channel.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9547797.html

Google Translator

******

After U.S. ATACMS Strike On Strategic Target Russia Announces To Retaliate

Just five days ago I postulated that the U.S. Has Stopped Ukrainian ATACMS Strikes On Russia.

Today that claim turned out to have been premature:

Status-6 @Archer83Able - 13:24 UTC · Dec 11, 2024
The remains of a US-made MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missile lying on the street in the Russian city of Taganrog following Ukrainian strikes last night.

Image

AFAIK the target was the 325th Aviation Repair Plant located in the vicinity of the Taganrog-Tsentralny Air Base.


Taganrog, on the norther coast of the Azov Sea in the Rostov oblast of Russia, is where the Beriev Aircraft Company is housed. The company is well known for building amphibious flying boat utility planes.

But it is also producing the Beriev 100 airplane which is the Russian version of an airborne early warning and control aircraft system (AWACS). The plant thus has strategic importance.

The Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledged the attack but claimed that it failed (machine translation):


During the investigation, it was reliably established that six American-made ATACMS ballistic missiles were used.
Two missiles were shot down by the Pantsir missile defense system, while the rest were rejected by electronic warfare.

As a result of falling fragments of missiles, there are casualties among the personnel. There was no damage, two buildings on the technical territory of the airfield and three units of military vehicles, as well as civilian vehicles in the parking lot adjacent to the airfield were slightly damaged (split by shrapnel).

This attack by Western long-range weapons will not remain unanswered, and appropriate measures will be taken.


Ukraine is unable to use long range ATACMS missiles without the intelligence and targeting information provided by U.S. systems and specialists.

Related to this escalation may be today's warning to Russian citizens to avoid travel to the U.S. and Europe:

Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry, urged citizens on Wednesday to "refrain from trips to the US, Canada and with a few exceptions EU countries" over the Christmas period.
She said those that travel were at risk of being "hunted" down by US authorities.

"In the context of the increasing confrontation in Russian-American relations, which are teetering on the verge of rupture due to the fault of Washington, trips to the United States of America privately or out of official necessity are fraught with serious risks," Ms Zakharova said.


The new ATACMS strike comes a day after the Russian president Vladimir Putin again asserted the strategic value of the hypersonic Oreshnik missile:

Once there is a sufficient amount of Oreshnik missiles, Russia will no longer consider the use of nuclear weapons, President Vladimir Putin said, addressing a meeting of the Council on Civil Society and Human Rights.
"We are improving our nuclear doctrine, not tightening it. Basically, now, we need to improve the Oreshnik missile, not the nuclear doctrine," Putin noted.

"If we take a closer look, a sufficient amount of these cutting-edge weapon systems will actually eliminate the need for the use of nuclear weapons," he explained.


The U.S. at first had hoped that Russia has no other Oreshnik missile than the one which was tested in a strike on the Ukrainian Yushmash missile plant three weeks ago.

That however has since been contradicted:

Following Russia’s first combat use of the Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missile on November 21, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry publicised an intelligence assessment on Russian industry’s production capacity for the new weapons system. Russia is estimated to be able to produce up to 25 Oreshnik missiles monthly, which equates to production of 300 missiles per year.

After today's (failed) ATACMS attack the U.S. does know what is coming:

Russia may soon target Ukraine with another of its new hypersonic Oreshnik missiles, two US officials said on Wednesday, after Moscow first used one of the weapons in a strike last month.
“Russia has signaled its intent to launch another experimental Oreshnik missile at Ukraine, potentially in the coming days,” one official said on condition of anonymity.


The targets of a Russian retaliatory strike will -for now- likely be in Ukraine.

That is why the U.S. officials seem not to be bothered or only a little:

“However, this missile is not a battlefield game-changer but an effort to intimidate Ukraine and its allies. The Oreshnik, with its smaller warhead and limited availability, is unlikely to alter the course of the conflict,” the official said.
A second US official likewise downplayed the missile’s potential impact, saying Moscow only has a limited supply.


So Russia is running out of missiles? Since March 2022? When will these idiots ever learn?

The longer the U.S. is doubting the effects of hardened metal darts hitting at MACH 10 and the Oreshnik missile's availability the greater the need for Russia to hit a real U.S. target.

The U.S. controlled intermediate range cruise missile installation in Poland might well be a good one but others may equally qualify.

Posted by b on December 11, 2024 at 18:27 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/12/u ... .html#more
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Dec 14, 2024 12:58 pm

Missiles against Ukraine
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 12/14/2024

Image

In the middle of the week, Russia reported a new Ukrainian attack with Western weapons on Russian territory, specifically on an airfield in the town of Taganrog. According to the Russian version, two of the six missiles were shot down, while the other four were diverted by electronic means to avoid damage. The image of the remains of a missile on a road confirmed that at least part of the projectiles had been shot down. Moscow immediately confirmed that there would be a response to the attack, while the United States announced that a new Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile, which has become Russia's version of a miracle weapon , could be fired at Ukrainian territory in the coming days . This week, Vladimir Putin went so far as to say that a sufficient number of such missiles will make the use of nuclear weapons unnecessary.

For the moment, Moscow has not fired any Oreshnik missiles in response to the recent attack on Taganrog, but has responded as it has done on previous occasions, with a new attack with drones and missiles. “Russia launched a massive airstrike on Ukraine on Friday, firing 93 ballistic and cruise missiles and nearly 200 drones, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, describing it as one of the heaviest bombardments of the country’s energy sector since Russia’s full-scale invasion nearly three years ago,” AP wrote yesterday to recount the latest Russian bombing of targets in Ukraine, one of the most significant in recent months. Throughout the day, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that “five of Ukraine’s nine operating nuclear reactor units have reduced their energy output due to renewed attacks on energy infrastructure.”

During the weeks of speculation about when the ban on the use of Western missiles against Russian territory would be lifted, there was also talk of what the Russian response might be. Journalists and think-tankers referred to the possibility of a nuclear test – the first since the collapse of the Soviet Union – as a possible measure. Among the more realistic actions mentioned by those trying to guess what Russia would do after the West crossed a new Russian red line was the attack on the infrastructure that supplies nuclear power plants, a way of attacking these critical infrastructures without bombing them or endangering nuclear security. Limiting the energy production capacity of nuclear power plants through combined attacks will not limit the fighting capacity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but it may significantly hamper the functioning of the state and make life even worse for the population as the harshest phase of winter approaches.

“In response to the use of long-range US weapons, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have launched a massive attack with high-precision, long-range weapons from land and sea, as well as drones, against critical fuel and energy infrastructure in Ukraine that ensures the operations of its military-industrial complex,” the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation stated. Preventing industrial production, currently primarily military, is one of Moscow’s major objectives, which has not succeeded in getting kyiv to continue developing and producing missiles and, above all, significant quantities of drones with which to continue attacking Russian infrastructure, among which the energy sector also stands out, especially oil refineries.

Yesterday's bombing, like the previous ones, is a form of collective punishment against the population and a way of sending a message to kyiv and its allies, to whom the Kremlin makes it clear that the escalation of attacks within Russian territory will be met with a harsh response and that Russia has no need to resort to new weapons or its nuclear doctrine. "The thermal power plants belonging to DTEK were attacked. Initial reports indicate that there are no casualties," said the main electricity distribution company. In this respect, too, yesterday's bombing repeated the usual pattern: significant damage but few casualties. Yesterday's was the twelfth Russian attack against Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year and the ninth directly affecting DTEK, which admitted "serious damage to the equipment at the thermal power plant" and announced a review of the planned blackouts in the regions of kyiv, Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk. According to Oleg Popenko, an energy market expert quoted by Ukrainian daily Strana , the limited operating capacity of nuclear power plants, which produce the bulk of the country's electricity, has left about half the country without power and different regions may be subject to blackouts lasting between seven and eleven consecutive hours.

Ukraine's adventure in Kursk, where some Russian military officials claimed on Thursday that North Korean troops had participated in the liberation of the town of Plekhovo (information denied by other sources, who have not yet seen the contingent of the People's Republic of Korea), prevented the beginning of talks for a partial ceasefire that would prevent precisely what is happening now, that the Russian response to attacks considered unacceptable is focused on energy production infrastructure.

The difficulties posed by the increasing attacks, which are occurring as damage accumulated by previous bombings increases and on infrastructure that cannot be fully repaired, are not an argument for kyiv to change its position but to reassert itself. “Massive Russian attack on Ukraine this morning, primarily targeting the energy system,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiha wrote on social media, adding that “Russia is trying to deprive us of energy. Instead, we must deprive them of the means of terror. I repeat my call for the urgent delivery of 20 NASAMS, HAWK or IRIS-T air defence systems.” Andriy Ermak, whose main task at the moment is to ensure that the supply of weapons to Ukraine continues in order to be able to fight Russia until the dynamics of the war change and to be able to negotiate with Russia in a position of strength, was more harsh. “Only force. That is all they understand,” Ermak wrote.

Yesterday's attack, one of the most powerful of this war, shows that the dynamic of attack-counterattack and continuous escalation has not changed and may intensify further, with serious consequences for the civilian population. With both sides feeling the need to respond to enemy attacks, a tendency for tension to rise and no medium-term prospects for a change in the balance of forces on the front, the wheels of war will continue to turn, causing casualties and destruction that will continue to impoverish the population, until some kind of initiative actually emerges that pushes for serious progress towards a negotiating table. Despite the fears of Ukraine and its European allies, that moment is still not close.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/12/14/misil ... a-ucrania/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of repelling the attempted invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the territory of the Russian Federation in the Kursk Region (as of December 14, 2024) The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to defeat the formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk Region. - Units of the North group of forces during offensive actions defeated the formations of three mechanized, heavy mechanized, two tank, two airborne assault brigades, a marine brigade and two territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Viktorovka, Guevo, Kurilovka, Lebedevka, Leonidovo, Malaya Loknya, Martynovka, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Nikolsky, Russkoye Porechnoye and Sverdlikovo. - Strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation , artillery fire hit enemy manpower and equipment in the areas of the settlements of Alexandria, Gogolevka, Kruglenke, Mirny, as well as Basovka, Belovody, Veselovka, Zhuravka, Ivolzhanskoye, Malaya Rybitsa, Miropolye, Sennoe and Yunakovka in the Sumy region. - Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 200 servicemen, a tank, a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle , an armored combat vehicle, seven vehicles, two artillery pieces, a mortar and an electronic warfare station were destroyed. Three Ukrainian servicemen surrendered. - In total, during the military operations in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 40,460 servicemen, 240 tanks, 178 infantry fighting vehicles, 125 armored personnel carriers, 1,253 armored combat vehicles, 1,131 vehicles, 311 artillery pieces, 40 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including 11 HIMARS and six MLRS made in the USA, 13 anti-aircraft missile system launchers, seven transport and loading vehicles, 74 electronic warfare stations, 13 counter-battery radars, four air defense radars, 27 units of engineering and other equipment, including 13 engineering obstacle clearing vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit , as well as six armored repair and recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle. The operation to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces formations continues.

***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of the special military operation (as of December 14, 2024 ) Main :

- The Center group improved its tactical position, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 365 servicemen in 24 hours;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 540 servicemen in 24 hours in the area of ​​responsibility of the West group;

- Russian military hit three Ukrainian UAV depots;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 95 servicemen in 24 hours due to the actions of the Russian force groups North and Dnipro;

- The Ukrainian military lost up to 150 fighters in 24 hours in the area of ​​responsibility of the East group.

Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance into the depth of the enemy's defense. Formations of two mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a territorial defense brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Vremivka and Suhie Yaly of the Donetsk People's Republic. A counterattack by an enemy assault group was repelled.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 150 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, three cars, a Polish-made 155 mm self-propelled artillery unit "Krab", a 152 mm self-propelled artillery unit "Akatsiya" and a 122 mm howitzer D-30.

▫️ Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Antonovka in the Kherson region and Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporizhia region.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 35 servicemen and three vehicles.

▫️ Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups destroyed three unmanned aerial vehicle depots, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 153 districts.

▫️ Air defense systems shot down six US-made HIMARS multiple launch rockets and 60 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 649 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 37,693 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,784 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,500 multiple launch rocket systems, 19,574 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 29,206 units of special military vehicles.

***

Forwarded from
Readovka
The Russian Armed Forces sealed units of the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kurakhovo cauldron — up to 2 enemy companies were blocked in Annovka

On the evening of December 12, the Ukrainian Deep State sounded the alarm over the threat of blocking units of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade in the village of Annovka south of Kurakhovo. On the morning of December 13, domestic sources confirmed that the sealing of enemy infantry in the Kurakhovo cauldron took place. The exact number of blocked Ukrainian soldiers is unknown — preliminarily, the Ukrainian command will be short of up to 2 companies, the personnel of which reaches approximately 200 soldiers.

Units of the Russian Armed Forces ensured this encirclement, having consolidated themselves in the eastern part of Uspenovka and taking aim at the area between this village and Annovka. On the other side of the cauldron, where the village of Vesely Gai is located, the Russian army advanced to the west and took up positions on the southern bank of the Sukhie Yaly River. This maneuver marked the fact that the Ukrainian units in Annovka are locked in their positions and have no way to reach their main forces. An attempt to get out of the Kurakhovka cauldron threatens only one thing - to be destroyed in a fire pocket.

In Uspenovka, the enemy could theoretically make an attempt to create a corridor for their comrades to leave Annovka. But there are no guarantees of success for such an undertaking - the Ukrainian Armed Forces only risk receiving even greater losses, which will critically affect further defense in the villages along the Sukhi Yaly River.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator


******

About Russian Response.

It is not just energy infrastructure.

Numerous strikes were reported across Ukraine on Friday, causing power outages in Kiev and several other cities. Energy infrastructure in all parts of Ukraine has come “under a massive attack,” Kiev’s energy minister German Galuschenko said. Power engineers are working to minimize the negative effects of the bombardment, he added. According to accounts on social media, explosions have been heard in Odessa, Ivano-Frankovsk and other regions. Strikes have been reported in the town of Burtysh in Ivano-Frankovsk Region, where a key power plant is located. Ukrainian media have reported emergency power outages in Kiev, Odessa and elsewhere. In Ternopol Region, some 50% of residents are currently without electricity, according to local authorities.

Even the US Embassy in Kiev complained about these massive strikes including on transport and other key industrial objects.

Image

Well, it is just the part of a response. Russia produces a huge number of Geraniums, Iskanders, Kinzhals not to speak of 3M14 Kalibrs and Kh-101s. Evidently "sunk" and "destroyed" Black Sea Fleet of Russia took active part in strikes launching Kalibrs. I wonder how Russians managed to salvage this "destroyed" fleet but it sure is very active for a defeated force. Go figure. Waiting for Oreshink, eh? Give it a time.

Image

By now you should know this meme.

Posted by smoothiex12 at 12:19 AM

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/12 ... ponse.html

This Is Pure Gold))

Maybe they realize that, and let me remind you:

Image

Or that:

The United States wants to win its wars quickly and with the smallest losses in American lives. It is disinclined, therefore, to act on protracted and indirect strategies, or to engage in limited wars and wars of attrition. Once it resorts to arms, it prefers to mobilize the great might of its industrial plant to produce vast quantities of the means of destruction with which in the shortest possible time to undermine the enemy’s will and ability to continue the struggle. Extreme reliance on technological superiority, characteristic of U.S. warfare, is the obverse side of America’s extreme sensitivity to its own casualties; so is indifference to the casualties inflicted on the enemy.

Oh, it is more than "sensitivity"--it is panic in a face of the enemy which holds every single technological advantage across all domains (with the exception of the space based ISR, with Russia having second best satellite grouping) and consequences which logically flow from that for the US Armed Forces. Hence this buffoonery:

US President-elect Donald Trump has proposed that EU members send peacekeepers to Ukraine to monitor a ceasefire with Russia, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. Trump ran for the White House on the promise of negotiating a swift end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but has been reluctant to reveal any specifics of his actual proposal since winning the election. Speaking with French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky last Saturday, Trump argued that “Europe” should play the main role in monitoring a ceasefire and that no US troops would be involved, the Journal reported, citing “officials briefed on the meeting.” The Journal’s sources claimed that the proposal “started as quiet discussions between British and French officials about the possibility” before including Trump, Zelensky and other governments. According to one source, Trump also pushed the EU to demand of China to pressure Russia to end the conflict, suggesting the use of tariffs as leverage.

All this is due to the unfolding reality of Project 404 and desperate attempts by the West to save face and find somebody to hold the bag with known substance after Russians exterminate last reserves of VSU and hit wonderfully empty steppe spaces of the left bank of Dnepr. So, in the end those will be hypothetical "peacekeepers" from Europoodle armies who will experience first hand long-range fires of such density that few that will survive may still wish to be dead.

Per China--considering what kind of garbage circulates in the top military-political circles in Washington under the tutelage of "intel", they still cannot get a simple fact--it is China that is dependent on Russia's military moves, not the other way around. In fact, it is Russia who attracted to herself all NATO resources thus buying China the time to get ready for possible attack on herself. But then again, Washington doesn't do strategy. You can see the signs of shell-shock everywhere in the West. They try but cannot hide, it is impossible to hide. Hence erratic behavior of the whole establishment. Trump, obviously, doesn't understand that he still has a chance to make this whole clusterfuck in Europe, 404 included, a purely Biden's affair, but the time is running out fast.

Trump says he will not ‘abandon’ Ukraine. The US president-elect would not reveal details of his proposal for peace with Russia

Sure, but then again--this serious game with consequences is for adults only.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/12 ... -gold.html

I do not see how Trump could dump this mess in Biden's lap without looking like a 'loser' himself, which he would never ever do.

******

Nothing more criminal...
December 13, 19:17

Image

The return of Donbass and Novorossiya to the Russian Federation is no more "criminal" than the merger of the FRG and the GDR in 1990 (c) Medvedev

1. The FRG must be subject to sanctions for the illegal occupation and annexation of the GDR.
2. The FRG must withdraw its troops beyond the 1990 borders.
3. The FRG must pay compensation to the residents of the GDR for the destruction and casualties caused by the occupation.
4. The FRG national teams must compete under a white flag until the occupation is ended.
5. All living German chancellors, starting with Kohl, must be transferred to the ICC in The Hague.

Only in this way will the principle of the inviolability of borders be affirmed and the rules-based order preserved.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9549592.html

(Good for the goose...))

*****

Russia Retaliates For ATACMS Strike - Improves Trolling

Those who were waiting for another Oreshnik strike, in response to the U.S. ATACMS attack on a strategic air plane factory in the Russian city of Taganrog, will be disappointed by this:

Statement by Russian Defence Ministry

On 11 December 2024, from the from the territory of Ukraine the AFU delivered a strike by six U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at the military airfield near Taganrog.
In response to the use of U.S.-made long-range weapons, the Russian Armed Forces delivered mass strikes by high-precision air- and sea-based weapons and attack drones at Ukrainian fuel and power infrastructure facilities ensuring operation of the defence industry.

The goal of the strike has been achieved. All the targets have been engaged.


The 'response' has been successful. There is then no additional need to follow up with another Oreshnik strike.

Ukraine has confirmed the success of the strike:

Russia deals 'massive blow' to Ukraine's thermal power plants, energy company says

Russia targeted DTEK's thermal power plants during a mass aerial attack on Dec. 13, damaging their equipment, the company said in a statement.
Moscow's forces launched around 90 missiles and 200 drones in one of its largest mass attacks on Ukraine's power grid as the winter is setting in.

"DTEK thermal power plants were attacked. According to preliminary data, there were no casualties," the company said. The plants' equipment was "seriously damaged," with energy sector employees already working on repairs.


Interestingly the strikes hit mostly in west-Ukraine where electricity and gas from the EU is imported into Ukraine (machine translation):

There is serious damage. According to our source on the energy market, the Burshtyn and Prydniprovska TPPs were damaged (which DTEK indirectly confirmed by reporting equipment damage at one of its thermal power plants), key substations in Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and other regions, and power lines throughout the country.
Ukrenergo has already announced tougher light restrictions. According to the current situation, there are currently three out of six outage queues. "This means that half the country is without electricity," says energy market expert Oleg Popenko. In Odessa, additional restrictions were introduced. "The situation there is very serious, people will sit for some time without electricity for 7-11 hours," Popenko said.

But the risks have increased not only in electricity, but also in gas and heating, as the Russian Federation has again hit the gas infrastructure.

"If there are interruptions in gas supply, the situation with electricity (since TPP and CHPP operate on gas) and heating will sharply worsen. At minus 10 degrees, which meteorologists promise us for a day, the average panel can stand without heating for 36-40 hours, then the system will need to be completely repaired. That is, high-rise buildings can become uninhabitable," says Popenko.


Ukraine had to lower the output of 5 of its 9 nuclear power plants as some relevant substations got it. The unified electricity system of the country is falling apart into islands of generation and consumption. Areas with little generation capacity and high consumption (Odessa) will have the biggest problems.

---
In comments 'Drifter' mentions a Russian quip about North Korean soldiers in Russia:

Telegram post from 12 hours ago - Yandex machine translation from Russian. Voenkor Kotenok posted the first report (I have found) suggesting actual (limited) use of elite Korean special forces in Kursk a week ago.
...
Military commander Kotenok
Plekhovo, which was liberated on December 6 in the Kursk direction, was indeed taken by Korean SSR fighters. We passed 2 kilometers through a minefield, broke into the settlement with lightning speed and destroyed the occupation contingent of the ukrovermakht. The operation took about 2.5 hours. They took their "200" and "300" with them.

According to some information, there were no prisoners. They will not take it in the future.

@voenkorKotenok


Nice trolling I'd say, with -of course- zero evidence.

Funny how some people are falling for it.

Posted by b on December 13, 2024 at 16:59 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/12/r ... .html#more

******

UKRAINE Gasping for Breath – Russia Bombs Reach Record Levels – Col. Daniel Davis
December 13, 2024



https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/12/ukr ... iel-davis/

Good luck on all that Donnie...you think you can dictate to Russia? Russia must dictate to the US and NATO because they cannot be trusted.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Dec 15, 2024 2:42 pm

A question of trust
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 12/15/2024

Image

“Ukraine is exhausted. The country, short of manpower, ammunition and, most importantly, morale, is slowly realising that the war may not be won on the battlefield – at least for now. According to a Gallup poll published on 19 November, 52% of Ukrainians now say they want their country to negotiate an end to the war “as soon as possible”. However, the terms of such a deal would depend on Washington as much or more than on Kiev,” writes, in an uncharacteristic tone of realism, an opinion piece published by The Kyiv Independent , which admits that the current situation would give Russia the upper hand in the event of a negotiation – an option more likely now than it was a few months ago. In the game of decisions that kyiv and its allies will have to make in the coming months, the main factor is the position of Donald Trump, who made peace in Ukraine one of the slogans of his campaign despite the fact that the entire electoral period passed without a single serious journalistic question about what his plans would be and how he would achieve his ambitious goal.

“The possible change in US policy under Trump has alarmed not only kyiv, but also its allies in Europe. Countries such as Poland, which share a direct interest in Ukraine’s survival and regional stability, are already preparing for the impact of less US engagement,” writes the aforementioned Ukrainian article, which stresses that “Europe faces significant challenges in maintaining the flow of military supplies to Ukraine. Production levels have not yet increased to meet demand, and some Western European leaders remain hesitant about further involvement.” In this sense, the message that kyiv hopes to hear is the one pronounced this week by the new European Union Commissioner for Defence and Space. “Countless tanks are being stockpiled, and I can’t help but wonder: What is Putin planning? We can only speculate, but we must be prepared for the “worst case scenario” that intelligence agencies warn of,” said Lithuanian Andrius Kubilus. “To be honest, we are not prepared for an attack,” he said.

Kubilus, who began his role by meeting in kyiv with Andriy Ermak, who is in charge of stirring up diplomacy to ensure that Ukraine does not lack the funds with which to continue fighting until it achieves a situation strong enough to impose peace terms on Russia, defends the option of increasing investment in defence, which is also demanded by Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, who this week called on member countries to change “to a war mentality”. “Today I ask for your support, it is urgent to act. To protect our freedom, our prosperity and our way of life, your politicians must listen to your voices. Tell them that you accept making sacrifices today so that we can be safe tomorrow,” he insisted, openly suggesting cuts in aspects that, until now, had been considered basic in the European welfare state. In his speech, Rutte specifically mentioned the possibility of reducing “a little” spending on pensions, health and social security. This is a “state of normalisation of warmongering, which presents war as a necessity to the detriment of essential public services,” commented journalist Olga Rodriguez. The way in which Mark Rutte, Andrius Kubilus and Kaja Kallas want to guarantee tomorrow’s security remains the same: prolonging the war in Ukraine until the final defeat of the Russian Federation.

The situation is not currently in the interests of the West. “The Ukrainians are exhausted and a military solution seems out of reach for now. However, the course of the peace talks will largely depend on Washington. There is a golden opportunity to persuade the new administration to take decisive action,” writes The Kyiv Independent , which, despite the current realism, remains hopeful for the future. This is also the line being taken by the Ukrainian government, which on the one hand is trying to make a last and likely unsuccessful attempt to convince Joe Biden to extend Ukraine a formal invitation to NATO, while it is already working with Donald Trump’s team to ensure that the change of power in the United States does not mean the end of the proxy war or that Kiev is exposed and forced to negotiate with Russia in a position of weakness.

“When pressed on whether or not he would abandon Ukraine, Trump says he would use U.S. support for Ukraine as leverage against Russia to negotiate an end to the war. “I want to make a deal,” he says, “and the only way to make a deal is to not abandon,” Time writes in its article on Donald Trump, the magazine’s person of the year. “According to aides, Trump has not yet committed to any specific plan for Ukraine and has not thought deeply about the issue as he prepares to take power. Members of his transition team and close confidants are drawing up proposals and briefing him. Key decisions will come when his national security team is in place and Trump has held further talks with allies, and possibly Putin himself,” The Wall Street Journal adds. Trump's plan for Ukraine is still lacking, just a month and a week before his inauguration, when all decisions regarding the sending of weapons or the approval of measures as important as the possibility of supporting a mission by European countries to send troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire will depend on him. Even so, those who will have to advise him on what to do from January continue to visit television studios to praise the figure of the future president and raise expectations. "I think it will be resolved in the next few months," said General Kellogg, Trump's representative for Ukrainian policy, regarding the end of the conflict, "because the only person who can do it is Donald Trump." In his speech, Kellogg insists that the team will prepare plans for the president to hear in the future and praises him for being able to think creatively and achieve what others could not. For the moment, trust in Trump is all the plan that the Republican team seems to have, after failing to resolve the conflict in its first term in power, or to enforce the ceasefire that the parties had signed in 2015. But perhaps the most surprising part of Kellogg's statements is the one in which he says that "they want to stop killing each other there." There is no sign on either side of wanting anything other than to continue the war until they achieve their objectives, something closer in the Russian case than in the Ukrainian one. Trump, or any political leader who aspires to truly mediate between kyiv and Moscow, is going to need more than trust, feelings and idealism to achieve something on fire.

Amid uncertainty about whether Trump has a more elaborate plan than calling the parties and notifying them of the need to resolve the conflict, the only certainty that seems to underlie Trumpism’s statements is the willingness to have European countries bear much of the cost of maintaining the war. “At a meeting in Paris on Dec. 7, Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron that he did not support Ukraine joining NATO but wanted to see a strong and well-armed Ukraine emerge from any cessation of fighting, according to officials briefed on the meeting,” The Wall Street Journal says . “Trump said Europe should play the lead role in defending and supporting Ukraine and that he wanted European troops present in Ukraine to oversee a cease-fire, according to the officials. He has not ruled out U.S. support for the deal, although no U.S. troops would be involved.” The main conclusion of this view is that the United States does not want its involvement to be direct in any way. Washington has always been comfortable with the idea of ​​proxy warfare on Russia's borders.

“Talks about placing European troops on the ground in Ukraine are still at an early stage, with several questions unresolved, including which European countries would be involved, the number of troops, Washington’s role in supporting the deployment and whether Russia would agree to a deal that includes troops from NATO countries,” The Wall Street Journal adds , incomprehensibly assuming that there will be at least a temporary ceasefire agreement. “What began as quiet talks between British and French officials about the possibility has expanded to include Trump, Zelensky and other European governments, according to people briefed on the discussions,” it adds. Unlike last February, when Emmanuel Macron's mention of the need not to reject the possibility of sending troops provoked, for example, the anger of Olaf Scholz, the situation has changed enough for this initiative to be consolidated in the media space without causing rejection or warnings of the escalation that the military presence of countries that are members of NATO would mean for Russia, an option that Russia could only accept if it had no other option, that is, after having been militarily defeated.

“Any European troops on the ground would be part of a dedicated peacekeeping or ceasefire monitoring force and would not be a NATO operation, the officials said. The Biden administration, many European capitals and the incoming Trump administration have talked about wanting to avoid any direct fighting between Russia and NATO troops in Ukraine, fearing it could escalate into a global conflict,” he says naively – or supposedly naively – as if Russia would treat a possible French or British military presence differently, even if their mission does not bear the Alliance’s name. The only danger currently perceived by the press is “the widespread fear that even if Moscow agrees to a ceasefire, it will use it to rebuild its forces and try again to invade unoccupied areas of Ukraine.”

Given the precedent of Ukraine's failure to comply with Minsk, the use of those seven years to build up the army and the approach with which kyiv is being encouraged to accept a ceasefire - an agreement that would not lead to a final treaty, so the territorial issue would be left for the future - the danger of a resumption of the war does not come only from Russia. The introduction of troops from third countries into this powder keg may constitute another element of tension towards more war instead of peace.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/12/15/cuest ... confianza/

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Situation in the Kursk direction (data from the Russian Ministry of Defense):

Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost over 400 servicemen, a tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, three armored combat vehicles, seven cars, three artillery pieces and 10 mortars have been destroyed. Five Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen have surrendered.

In total, during the military operations in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 40,860 servicemen, 241 tanks, 180 infantry fighting vehicles, 125 armored personnel carriers, 1,256 armored combat vehicles, 1,138 vehicles, 314 artillery pieces, 40 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including 11 HIMARS and six MLRS made in the USA, 13 anti-aircraft missile system launchers, seven transport and loading vehicles, 74 electronic warfare stations, 13 counter-battery radars, four air defense radars, 27 units of engineering and other equipment, including 13 engineering obstacle clearing vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit, as well as six armored repair and recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle.

***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defence on the progress of the special military operation (as of 15 December 2024) Main points:

Since the beginning of the special operation, the Russian military has destroyed 650 Ukrainian aircraft;

— The Zapad units have improved their tactical position. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 550 servicemen, an Iveco armored fighting vehicle, and two Melara guns;

— The Russian Armed Forces destroyed four Patriot air defence missile launchers made in the USA and damaged the infrastructure of Ukrainian military airfields;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 155 servicemen per day in the East grouping zone;

— The North grouping of the Russian Armed Forces destroyed over 70 Ukrainian servicemen per day;

— Over 70 Ukrainian servicemen were destroyed in the Dnepr grouping area of ​​responsibility;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 280 servicemen per day in the Center grouping zone;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 400 servicemen and a tank in the South grouping zone per day.

▫️ Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense, defeated the formations of the mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Temirovka in the Zaporizhia region, Vremivka and Zelenoye Pole in the Donetsk People's Republic. They repelled four counterattacks by enemy assault groups.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 155 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, five cars, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Caesar" made in France and an 80-mm multiple launch rocket system "Partizan" .

▫️ Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of the mountain assault, heavy mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Novoandriivka, Malaya Tokmachka and Novopavlovka in the Zaporizhia region.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost over 70 servicemen, four vehicles, a 155-mm howitzer M777 made in the USA and a 152-mm gun D-20 . An ammunition depot and an electronic warfare station were destroyed .

▫️Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed a combat control vehicle, an AN/MPQ-65 radar station and four launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system made in the USA, and damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 146 areas .

▫️ Air defense systems shot down a MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, eight rockets from a US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system , and 116 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles .

▫️ In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed : 650 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 37,809 unmanned aerial vehicles, 590 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,797 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,501 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles, 19,644 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 29,235 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

On the probable offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
December 15, 17:12

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On the probable offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

Regarding the new tactical signs that appeared in the Chernigov region.
It is quite possible that this is for a new attempt at an offensive in the Bryansk or Kursk regions.

Previously, the enemy transferred parts of one of the tank brigades to the Chernihiv region + up to two brigades of the strategic reserve. The potential of the group for the enemy's offensive is estimated at up to 25 thousand personnel, 100-120 tanks, up to 600-700 armored fighting vehicles, up to 60 units of barrel artillery (self-propelled guns, towed howitzers) + a certain number of MLRS (including several HIMARS)

. The ammunition and equipment now hastily transferred from the EU and the USA are primarily thrown into preparing for the offensive. The same applies to the busification, through which they seek, among other things, to increase the number of personnel for a potential offensive.

Talk of peace and negotiations is a banal camouflage designed to somehow cover up the preparation for the next stage of escalation.
If we can correctly determine the main areas of concentration and the direction of the main attack, and then provide the necessary defensive measures, the failure of this attack will have the most serious consequences for the enemy. If we miss somewhere, we will get additional operational and tactical problems, which under certain circumstances may interfere with plans for offensive operations in other directions.
So we wait and prepare. The cornered rat will try to rush into attack once more.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9553448.html

"Our Texas"
December 14, 22:00

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A documentary about American volunteer Russell Bentley (call sign "Texas"), who in 2014 came from the USA to Donbass, where he stayed, linking his fate with the DPR. The film was shot by people who personally knew Russell.

(Video at link.)

In 2024, "Texas" was killed by a group of people from the 5th Brigade, who are now on trial in Donetsk.
The case was not hushed up, so we are waiting for the court's findings. There are 4 people involved in the case.

P.S. At the "Front Line" festival in Rostov, I met Russell's widow, Lyudmila Bentley. A courageous woman.

https://avatars.mds.yandex.net/i?id=f86 ... humbs&n=13

Google Translator

******

Poland’s Participation In Any Ukrainian Peacekeeping Mission Could Lead To World War III

Andrew Korybko
Dec 15, 2024

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From Russia’s perspective, the increasingly serious talk about Western/NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine (even if they operate on a non-NATO mandate) is already concerning enough, but its threat perception would further worsen through Polish participation in such a mission.

French President Emmanuel Macron and his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk discussed the possibility of Western peacekeepers in Ukraine last week in the latest sign of just how much the Overton Window has shifted since Trump’s election. This subject used to be strictly taboo, and Macron was chastised by most Western leaders apart from Poland’s and the Baltics’ for floating the conventional deployment of foreign forces there earlier this year. Here’s everything of significance that happened since early November:

* 7 November: “Here’s What Trump’s Peace Plan Might Look Like & Why Russia Might Agree To It”

* 9 November: “The Clock Is Ticking For Russia To Achieve Its Maximum Goals In The Ukrainian Conflict”

* 10 November: “10 Obstacles To Trump’s Reported Plan For Western/NATO Peacekeepers In Ukraine”

* 11 November: “Five Reasons Why Trump Should Revive The Draft Russian-Ukrainian Peace Treaty”

* 18 November: “The Moment Of Truth: How Will Russia Respond To Ukraine’s Use Of Western Long-Range Missiles?”

* 20 November: “Russia’s Updated Nuke Doctrine Aims To Deter Unacceptable Provocations From NATO”

* 22 November: “Putin Is Finally Climbing The Escalation Ladder”

* 29 November: “Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service Warned About A 100k-Strong NATO Intervention In Ukraine”

* 5 December: “Zelensky’s Flip-Flop On Ceasefire Terms Is A Faux Concession”

Reports suggest that Trump might try to put the squeeze on Putin by “escalating to de-escalate” on better terms for his side. The returning American leader also wants the Europeans to patrol any demilitarized zone (DMZ) along the Line of Contact (LOC), which could be unacceptable for Russia. At the same time, Trump condemned Biden and Zelensky’s new strategy of striking deep inside of Russia, thus hinting at rescinding this policy and possibly withdrawing such arms from Ukraine as a concession.

Proposals about freezing the conflict along the LOC aren’t anything new, but deploying Western/NATO forces along the resultant DMZ is something that hadn’t hitherto been seriously considered since it was thought to cross one of the reddest of Russia’s red lines, which could spike the risk of World War III. Nevertheless, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late last week this is precisely what Trump envisages, albeit with those same European forces operating on a non-NATO mandate.

That tidbit suggests yet another concession to Russia aimed at assuaging its legitimate concerns and reducing the likelihood that another conflict could lead to a world-threatening scenario due to Article 5. Even so, the point is that what had previously been unthinkable is now being actively discussed behind the scenes, but Poland – which could play one of the most pivotal roles in this peacekeeping operation for reasons of geography and history – is getting cold feet as proven by its officials’ latest statements.

A spokesperson for its National Security Bureau said that “There is currently no consideration in Poland of any military involvement as part of stabilization forces in Ukraine.” This was followed by Sejm Speaker Szymon Holownia saying that “our participation in various types of military engagements in Ukraine could only take place under the NATO umbrella and within NATO structures.” Both comments preceded the Macron-Tusk meeting in Warsaw on Thursday, which was followed by a press conference.

The Polish leader declared, “To cut off speculation about the potential presence of this or that country in Ukraine after reaching a ceasefire... decisions concerning Poland will be made in Warsaw and only in Warsaw. For the time being, we are not planning such actions.” Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski then said the day after that his country’s first task is to defend its borders, but he also added that Poland is ready to provide logistical support for any peacekeeping operation if it actually happens.

These four comments were collectively interpreted by most of the media as meaning that Poland won’t participate in any such mission in Ukraine, but reading between the lines, it’s clear that there are some caveats. Holownia importantly clarified that Poland would only take part in it as part of NATO in an allusion to Article 5 security guarantees in the event that another conflict breaks out, though that’s not what Trump reportedly has in mind according to the WSJ.

Be that as it may, the US might convince Poland that such guarantees would still remain in force even if its participation in any such peacekeeping mission is outside of the NATO umbrella, though one can only speculate how sincere such assurances would be and whether or not Poland would be placated by them. There’s also next year’s presidential election in Poland to consider too since the ruling liberal-globalists and the (very imperfect) conservative-nationalist opposition are vying for the patriotic vote right now.

Reputable surveys suggests that Poles are getting fed up with the NATO-Russian proxy war and even with Ukraine in general as a result of the latter’s disrespectful approach towards Volhynia Genocide dispute. Proposing to put Polish troops in harm’s way for Ukraine’s sake, especially after one of Poland’s two Deputy Prime Ministers warned in early November that Zelensky is trying to provoke a Polish-Russian war, would harm the presidential prospects of whichever party it is that champions that policy.

Poland’s current political arrangement is such that the outgoing presidency is held by a member of the now-opposition who serves as the Commander-in-Chief so he’d have to authorize this for it to happen. It might therefore turn out that Poland’s domestic electoral considerations influence him not to go along with this even though he’s close friends with Trump and was just boasting about his party’s pro-US credentials during a speech at the opening of the US’ missile defense base in Poland last month.

A counterargument though is that Poland already feels excluded from the Ukrainian endgame after none of its representatives were invited to mid-October’s Berlin Summit between the American, British, French, and German leaders so he might also approve Polish participation in order to not be left out. In that case, the ruling liberal-globalists and the conservative-nationalist opposition would be equally to blame for this, thus neutralizing the electoral advantage for their opponent.

Another possibility is that both parties keep playing it cool in the hopes of winning more patriots over to their side (some are attracted to the ruling party’s tougher stance on Ukraine compared to the former government’s) and Poland just facilitates others’ participation in this mission. In that event, Poland would self-exclude itself even more from the Ukrainian endgame, but it wouldn’t run the risk of being hung out to dry if another conflict erupts but the US doesn’t recognize Article 5 on Ukrainian territory.

From Russia’s perspective, the increasingly serious talk about Western/NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine (even if they operate on a non-NATO mandate) is already concerning enough, but its threat perception would further worsen through Polish participation in such a mission. That’s because Poland plans to build Europe’s largest army and it already borders the Union State along the Belarusian and Kaliningrad frontiers so another conflict could lead to direct hostilities between Russia and NATO on their territories.

It's precisely this scenario that Trump presumably hopes to avoid by reportedly suggesting that the peacekeeping mission be conducted under a non-NATO mandate, keeping Ukraine outside of the bloc for some period of time, and hinting at withdrawing Western long-range missiles from there too. His well-intentioned efforts would be all for naught if Poland participates in this mission, hence why it’s best to keep them out of this, but that’s more difficult to do than it seems for the reasons that’ll be explained.

The US can’t ignore Poland since it’s pivotal for the logistical success of any such mission, plus excluding it from discussions on this subject would be politically inappropriate, especially if its leadership expresses a sincere desire to take part in it (such as to avoid being further excluded from the Ukrainian endgame). It’s a NATO member so talks between the bloc’s members can’t easily be conducted without it, and any conspicuous exclusion of Poland could fuel suspicion and resentment, which are already boiling a bit.

There are also internal policymaking and external image pressures to consider too with regard to these forces arguing that Polish participation could “deter Russia from violating the ceasefire” for the same escalatory reasons that its participation should be avoided as was just explained. Snubbing a NATO ally that’s gone overboard portraying itself as the US’ most loyal member of the bloc would also look bad. These factors might thus throw a spanner into Trump’s peace plan and make it more dangerous.

Truth be told, it’s already very dangerous since he’s reportedly considering a Western/NATO peacekeeping mission there despite Russia previously threatening to target any such forces if they enter Ukraine, especially since keeping them out was a reason for the special operation. He’s taking for granted that Russia is bluffing or that he could “escalate to de-escalate” on the US’ terms if it isn’t, which is an unprecedentedly risky application of game theory with apocalyptic consequences if he’s wrong.

It would therefore be best if he stops entertaining this idea since it could end in disaster, but if he insists on moving forward with it and somehow gets Russia to accept a variation of this (ex: under a non-NATO mandate, etc.), then he and his team should see to it that Poland doesn’t get directly involved. If it does, then the risk of another conflict leading to World War III will hang as a Damocles’ sword over the everyone’s heads, and this could be exploited by radical ideologues in Kiev to blackmail the world.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/polands- ... -ukrainian

(Andy had his smart pills this morning.))

******

Secret British Military Plot to Prolong the Ukraine War And Take Down The Grayzone – Kim Iversen Interviews Kit Klarenberg
December 14, 2024



https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/12/sec ... larenberg/

*****

I Couldn't Resist.

No, I mean it))

МОСКВА, 15 дек — РИА Новости. Из 155-й бригады ВСУ имени Анны Киевской, часть состава которой проходила обучение во Франции, почти сразу после прибытия на позицию дезертировали порядка тысячи человек, об этом заявил главный редактор украинского издания "Цензор.нет" Юрий Бутусов в эфире своего YouTube-канала. "Огромное количество случаев самовольного оставления части (СОЧ) из числа тех, кого туда засунули, в эту бригаду", — сказал он.

Translation: MOSCOW, December 15 — RIA Novosti. About a thousand people deserted from the 155th Anna Kievskaya Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, some of whose personnel were trained in France, almost immediately after arriving at their positions, said Yuriy Butusov, editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian publication Censor.net, on his YouTube channel. "There are a huge number of cases of unauthorized abandonment of the unit (SOCH) from among those who were shoved there, into this brigade," he said.

But on a serious note--what did anyone expect? Those deserters are people grabbed from the streets. Many are of advanced age. Soon, 18 year olds will be grabbed and thrown into the meat grinder--Blinken and Sullivan who do not know the difference between azimuth and course parameter demand that. Most will not survive, not for a long time anyway. Meanwhile, the Russian flag over Kurakhovo's grain storage.

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I guess Russians will lose another 600,000 of personnel just taking Pokrovsk, if you know what I mean. Hey, why not go full Monty--Russians will lose 10 million. That's the US "intel" at work.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/12 ... st_14.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Dec 16, 2024 12:48 pm

The front between the noise
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 12/16/2024

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“The Russian army blocks more than 200 Ukrainian soldiers in Kurakhov (Donetsk),” EFE headlined yesterday in its brief report on the latest events that have occurred on the Russian-Ukrainian war front. While Trump names the controversial former ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell “sent for special missions,” the general who will be in charge of leading Ukrainian policy is shown on television arguing that the new president will be able to resolve the conflict “because no one else can do it” and European countries discuss sending European troops to Ukraine to monitor the future ceasefire, the war continues with less and less interest on the military front. On both sides of the Atlantic, the opinion has been installed – sometimes the fear – that Donald Trump will force Ukraine to accept an agreement and the front will be temporarily frozen according to the borders existing at the time of acceptance of the terms.

All parties seem to be preparing for that moment, which assumes that the start of negotiations necessarily implies reaching an understanding. However, the precedents of this war indicate the opposite. The signing of Minsk paralyzed the large operations, but did not achieve a real ceasefire or progress towards a military and political resolution, a situation that ultimately led to the Russian invasion in 2022. Weeks later, Russia and Ukraine met for the first time to begin negotiations that would last for months, even after the apparent breakdown of Istanbul, where despite signs of an agreement in principle, the initiative did not prosper due to the lack of interest of Ukraine and its partners in reaching a treaty that involved political and territorial concessions. The deal that is apparently now being offered to Russia is to freeze the front, temporarily accept the loss of some territories – Ukraine is expected to use the Kursk territories under its control card to demand the return of Ukrainian territories, for example the parts of Kharkiv under Russian control or the Energodar nuclear power plant – and perhaps an agreement not to include Ukraine in NATO for a few years, but not a settlement treaty. In other words, in exchange for temporarily maintaining the territories under its control, Russia is offered a scenario in which Ukraine would not give up the territories, which it would try to recover through diplomatic means , and access to NATO that member countries have already declared “irreversible”, although it could be delayed for a few years. To this scenario must be added the possibility of the presence of troops from countries of the European Union, and presumably also members of NATO, although technically it would not be a mission of the Alliance but of individual countries.

The chances of a resolution to the war with a final treaty that determines the borders and security guarantees for both countries and for the populations close to the front are, as of today, practically zero. Russia, which depends on its economy and its military industry to equip its troops, is still able to cover its personnel and maintenance shortages and has managed to correct some of the tactical, logistical and military errors that hampered its efforts in 2022. What was its main deficiency, the lack of personnel, is now one of Ukraine's problems, which kyiv's allies intend to solve by extending compulsory recruitment to those under 25 years of age. kyiv, for its part, attributes the worsening situation of its troops, serious in certain areas of the front, to the lack of weapons and ammunition and demands that its allies deliver more quickly and provide long-range material with which to attack the territory of the Russian Federation. In the last two recently announced packages, the United States has committed more than $1.2 billion in arms, which will be shipped before the end of the current legislative term. In addition to this direct assistance, kyiv has also obtained a $50 billion loan from the United States from the profits of Russian assets seized by the sanctions regime from 2022. In addition, the European Union is providing the cost of maintaining the Ukrainian state. Like Russia, which has its own funds to continue the war, Ukraine still has sufficient foreign funding to ensure that there is no military or political collapse. Neither country lacks the resources to continue the war of attrition nor is it militarily exhausted, two of the scenarios in which negotiations could lead to a definitive resolution. The third, a political rapprochement, is also unfeasible today, when the conditions proposed by the two capitals are incompatible.

Only external intervention can force kyiv and Moscow to agree to an agreement, which would likely be minimal and lead to a situation of instability similar to that in Minsk, although on a much larger scale. Donald Trump intends to play that role, forcing Ukraine to agree to the start of negotiations that it will probably try to delay while waiting for better conditions. The US president-elect seems to want to use the threat of tariffs to force China to put pressure on Moscow as well. Donald Trump has not yet reached the White House and has no plan for Ukraine other than forcing European countries to bear the costs of the war and control of the ceasefire, but he already knows that he wants to score a point and obtain geopolitical and economic concessions from his allies and opponents.

Under these conditions, both Russia and Ukraine are trying to achieve their objectives in order to arrive at this possible negotiation in a position of relative strength. For Moscow, everything depends on obtaining a better position on the land front. First, the objective is to recover as much territory as possible in the Kursk Oblast , where Zelensky claims that North Korean troops have begun to fight. Russia is fighting to get closer to Suya, the only minimally important town under Kiev's control. Second, the Russian command has made it clear that the priority is the western area of ​​Donetsk, where the fighting is concentrated in several important areas. Ukraine, which understands that under current conditions it is not capable of recovering the territory lost in the south of the country, wants to base its strategy on deep attacks, although it lacks the number of missiles that would be required to undermine the Russian military effort in such a way that Moscow would arrive weak at the negotiations, so its plan is to defend the most important points on the front as much as possible. Although it might be at another time, the Russian approach to Kupyansk is not a major concern at the moment, and would only be a concern if Russia were to advance beyond the town to threaten Izium and, from there, Slavyansk or Kramatorsk. The real danger for Ukraine lies at two specific points: Pokrovsk-Krasnoarmeysk and Velika Novosyolka, both of which are absolutely crucial to preventing a collapse of the front west of Donetsk.

The effective loss of Pokrovsk, if it were to be isolated, would compromise the entire first line of defence, behind which stretches a steppe in which there do not seem to be sufficient fortifications in the direction of Dnipropetrovsk, a sign that Ukraine never anticipated the possibility of Russian troops advancing in the region of the front that is best suited for defence. Aware of the importance of the town, which Russia is only a few kilometres away from and which it is trying to encircle rather than attack head-on, Ukraine has sent its usual reinforcements. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is once again relying on the Third Assault Brigade to try to counterattack towards Shevchenko, a town south of Pokrovsk, from where Russia is trying to advance westwards to encircle the city.

The case of Velika Novosyolka is similar, as it acts as a link between several areas of the front and its loss would make it difficult for Ukraine to defend the southern front and would open the door for Russia to attack Guliaipole and even Orekhov, in the part of Zaporozhye under Ukrainian control and from where kyiv launched its famous counteroffensive in 2023.

Less publicised than these two main points, Russian advances are slow but consistent both in the city of Toretsk-Dzerzhinsk, where Russia controls around 60% of the urban area, and Kurajovo, where the Russian tricolour was hoisted on the administrative building on Saturday. The fighting continues in the central part of the city, but progress remains to be made on the less densely populated part to the west of the town, located south of the reserve and built along, parallel to, this physical barrier. A little further south, Russia continues its advance in the salient formed by a handful of small towns, among which Uspenovka stands out, crossed by the road that links the south with Kurajovo. It is there that the Ukrainian troops, isolated and unable to receive supplies, are struggling to leave the area before being completely isolated.

With no other option but to send troops to try to stem the advances, Ukraine has already found its scapegoat. “A Ukrainian official confirmed to the Financial Times on Friday that Oleksandr Lutsenko has been removed from his post as commander of the Donetsk operational and tactical group. Ukrainian forces under Lutsenko’s command have failed to stop the sweeping Russian offensive that has taken an area roughly half the size of London in just the past month. The official added that Lutsenko will be given another post in the army’s ground forces. He has been replaced by Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi,” Christopher Miller wrote on Saturday. The article quotes Oleksandr Syrsky as saying that Russia has a vast superiority in manpower, which contradicts Zelensky’s claim that there are enough men and it is only weapons that are in short supply because of his allies. "The Russians are throwing all available forces forward, trying to break through the defense of our troops," he insists.

“Underlining the dire situation facing the Ukrainian army on the Eastern Front, Syrsky warned that he would soon have to resort to taking “atypical decisions to increase defence stability and more effectively destroy the occupiers,” writes the Financial Times , recalling that the last of the Ukrainian general’s atypical ideas was the invasion of Kursk.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/12/16/31161/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Zelensky is illegitimate (c) Putin

Again, to the question of who to sign something with in Ukraine. Zelensky seized power in Ukraine and violated the Ukrainian Constitution. Even if he signs something, from the point of view of Ukrainian legislation it will be illegal and this signature can then be revoked purely under a legal sauce, which means this is a guaranteed mine under any agreement on anything. Figuratively speaking, Zelensky signed something, then the Americans or the British replaced Zelensky with Zaluzhny, and he, referring to the legal component of Zelensky's status at the time of signing the agreement, simply recognizes Zelensky's signature as invalid through the new composition of the Constitutional Court. And welcome to the next round of the war.
By canceling the elections, Zelensky himself is already an obstacle to saving what is left of Ukraine within the 2022 borders.

***

Colonelcassad
Putin and Belousov have essentially once again voiced the Russian Federation's conditions for starting peace talks.

1. Taking into account the realities on the ground - that is, minus 4 regions for Ukraine. Within the borders of 2014. Russia is not giving up Zaporozhye and Kherson.
2. The worsened points of the Istanbul agreements for Ukraine (denazification, neutralization, demilitarization).
3. If Ukraine refuses to negotiate, these conditions will worsen in the future.
4. If Russia refuses to negotiate, it will achieve its goals by military means and the realities on the ground for Ukraine will worsen.

***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
on the progress of the special military operation (as of December 16, 2024) Main points:

The East force grouping destroyed up to 185 Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen and a Leopard tank in one day;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 440 servicemen and three combat armoured vehicles in one day in the area of ​​responsibility of the West force grouping;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 500 servicemen in one day in the area of ​​responsibility of the South force grouping;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 345 people and two MaxxPro vehicles in one day as a result of the actions of the South force grouping;

— The Russian Air Defense Forces shot down nine Ukrainian drones in one day;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 140 fighters as a result of the actions of the North and Dnipro force groups;

▫️Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense, defeated formations of two mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Razliv, Zelenoye Pole and Vremevka of the Donetsk People's Republic. They repelled three counterattacks of the enemy assault groups. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 185 servicemen, a Leopard tank made in Germany, an infantry fighting vehicle, two armored combat vehicles, four cars, a 155-mm M777 howitzer made in the USA, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Bogdana" and a 122-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Gvozdika" .



▫️Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of the heavy mechanized , mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Novoandriyevka in the Zaporizhia region, Antonovka, Yantarnoye and Nikolskoye in the Kherson region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost over 55 servicemen, two vehicles, a 155-mm howitzer M777 made in the USA and two 152-mm guns D-20 . Four ammunition depots were destroyed.



▫️ Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 133 areas.

▫️ Nine aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down by air defense systems .

▫️In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 650 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 37,818 unmanned aerial vehicles, 590 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,810 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,501 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles, 19,695 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 29,260 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Belousov on the results of 2024 in the SVO zone
December 16, 13:59

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Belousov on the results of the year in the SVO.

1. 4.5 thousand square kilometers of territory were liberated.
2. 189 cities, villages and towns were liberated.
3. The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2024 amounted to over 560,000 people killed and wounded.
4. The total losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces since the beginning of the war exceed 1,000,000 people.
5. The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region exceed 40,000 people.

It was also reported today that, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, 6.5 out of 15,000 foreign mercenaries who arrived in Ukraine were destroyed.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9554782.html

Google Translator

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Ukraine Weekly Update
December 13th 2024

<snip>

Ukraine Attacks IAEA Personnel At Zaporozhye

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IAEA Delegation Visits Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant - Sputnik International, 1920, 11.12.2024

Employees of the International Atomic Energy Agency were attacked by Ukrainian artillery as they carried out their duties at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant on December 10th. The Russian Foreign Ministry pleaded:

We call on the US, the United Kingdom, and their allies to end any support for the Zelensky regime and take measures to bring those responsible for the act of provocation to justice.

Many of you will know that the NPP has been the subject of many Ukrainian attacks over the past years, some of which could have ended in catastrophe. But these attacks have been ignored by the West. A successful attack will be impossible to ignore. On this occasion, there were no casualties - according to Pravda.

<snip>

Polish Diplomats Booted Out

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St Petersburg

In retaliation for Poland’s decision to close the Russian Consulate in Poznan, the Russians have closed the Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg and asked the Polish diplomats to leave - according to Zero Hedge. Poland has accused the Russians of "intimidation, the instrumentalization of migrants, sabotage, disinformation, foreign information manipulation and interference." And for good measure they have added ‘terrorism’ to the list of charges. Moscow accused Poland of pursuing an ‘openly hostile policy’ towards Russia.

Russian Missile Strikes - Massive Increase

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The rate will probably not increase exponentially from now on but will increase steadily.

China Cutting Drone Parts to Ukraine
In January, China is expected to tighten restrictions on the export of drone parts to Ukraine which could seriously harm Ukraine’s military efforts.

Ukrainians Escaping

Kids Escaping
Some time ago I reported that mothers in Ukraine were helping their teenage sons to escape Ukraine for fear that they would be called up to the army. There have been calls from armchair warriors in the US and elsewhere to reduce the mobilisation age to 18. In view of this, many Ukrainian teenagers are making arrangements to study abroad, not because of missile and drone attacks or lack of electricity but because they want to live. Being recruited means almost certain death. 190,000 boys between 14 and 17 are already registered as refugees in foreign lands.

And Men

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RADA MP, Anna Skorokhod (pictured) claims that official figures show that 1.2 million men have fled the country illegally though the true figure is likely to be much higher.

And Soldiers

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According to recent figures, Ukrainian desertions have increased six fold as compared with 2022. According to Intel Republic, quoting Ukrainian law enforcement personnel:

[i\]‘Fatigue plays a role. Or there are personal circumstances, like when a soldier’s wife is giving birth,” said Oleksandr Hrynchuk of Ukraine’s military law enforcement service. “Or because there’s nobody else to lead the platoon and the commander didn’t grant leave.” Roman Lykhachov, a Kharkov-based lawyer for soldiers and veterans, estimates the number may stand at 100,000 or more, which isn’t a far cry from the 160,000 troops that Ukraine earlier said it still needs to mobilize.

Trump-Marcon-Zelensky-Paris

I’m with the big boys now!
According to Zelensky:

Good, productive meeting with President Trump and President Macron. President Trump is, as always, determined. Thank you for that. I also thank President Macron for organizing this meeting in Paris. We talked about our people, the situation on the battlefield, and a just peace for Ukraine. We all want to end this war as quickly and fairly as possible. We agreed to continue working. Peace through strength is possible.

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Z is in his element when meeting up with the big boys. The meeting lasted a derisible 20 minutes.

<snip>

Don’t Shit Under The Door

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This reads: ‘I kindly ask you not to shit under the door The TCC employee no longer lives here.’

<snip>

The Economic War
Ukraine to Get $20 Billions Loan

The US treasury has announced that Ukraine will receive a $20 billions loan courtesy of the good old US taxpayer. Repayment is to made by allowing Ukraine to steal frozen Russian assets. I think the US has now provided more than $100 billion funding to Ukraine.

This has become possible because Belgium based clearing house, Euroclear, has frozen $213 billions in Russian assets on instruction from the EU. These funds have generated approximately $5 billion in interest in the past nine months and some of this has been given to Ukraine. But Euroclear is getting nervous that the Russians may seek to recover their funds in future and they may have a strong legal case to do so. The clearing house has therefore requested that legal liability moves along with the funds. Valerie Urbain of Euroclear has warned that the seizure of Russians funds poses severe risks to the Euro and to the EU economy in general. You can read more at Sputnik.

Oil Sanctions Backfire on the Environment

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Torrey Canyon - 1967

Sanctions very often have unintended consequences - as the Europeans know only too well. But sanctions against Russian oil have facilitated a massive increase in ‘shadow vessels’ (unregulated vessels) which are transporting oil, including Russian oil, using ageing and substandard shipping thereby risking environmental disasters on the oceans. There have already been accidents involving such ships including the collision between Ceres 1 and Andromeda Star. Also, in December 2023 the Liberty went aground in the Strait of Mallaca with a million barrels of Venezuelan oil on board.

According to Atlantic Council:

Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the shadow fleet—which previously mostly transported goods to and from Iran and Venezuela—has exploded in size. Today, around 17 percent of all oil tankers are estimated to belong to the shadow fleet, which also comprises other merchant vessels. When the shadow fleet was much smaller, the global maritime community could manage the risks posed by it. Today, by contrast, the fleet’s size means it poses immediate risks to a large number of crews, coastal states, vessels, and to the maritime environment.

(More at link.)

https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukra ... update-d93

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Brief report from the front on December 15, 2024

The Russian army reaches the commanding heights along the Dvurechnaya-Kupyansk road. Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.

Zinderneuf
Dec 15, 2024

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Map key: ЛБС 10.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 10th, 2024

After our units had passed the Oskol north of Kupyansk and occupied bridgeheads there, the enemy began to receive victorious reports after some time that they had liquidated these bridgeheads. We can only guess what tasks our troops faced there. But, having withdrawn from the bridgehead in the Novomlynsk area, the Russian Armed Forces expanded the bridgehead south of Dvurechnaya (Dvorichna), having consolidated themselves in part of the forest massif and the forest belt near it. Thus, it was possible to expand the control zone in the area of ​​the southern outskirts of Dvurechnaya north of the previously occupied bridgehead. At the same time, our soldiers have already entered Dvurechnaya and have established themselves in the buildings in the southern part of the settlement. There are military clashes for access to the commanding heights along which the Dvurechnaya-Kupyansk road runs in this area.

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Map key: ЛБС 01.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 1st, 2024

In the Borovaya (Borova) section of the Kupyansk direction, the "cutting" of the territory occupied by the enemy into "pockets" continues. In the area of ​​the settlement of Lozovaya (Lozova), the Russian Armed Forces advanced north and south of it, beginning to form a circle. In the area north of Lozovaya, Russian forces advanced along the ravine with a river of the same name flowing through it (the Lozovaya River) and reached the outskirts of the settlement. To the south, having expanded control in the area, starting north of the settlement of Vishnevoe (Vyshneve), they approached not only Lozovaya itself, but also advanced along the ravine in the direction of the settlement of Borovskaya Andreevka (Borivska Andriivka), having consolidated themselves in front of the headquarters northeast of the settlement.

The territory controlled by the enemy is being systematically divided into separate sections. This ensures a disruption of coordination between separate units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a reduction in their defensive capability.

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Map key: ЛБС 01.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 1st, 2024. ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. Зона активных боев=Zone of active fighting.

In Toretsk, Russian forces continue active assault operations in the central part of the city. The area of ​​multi-story buildings, with a few exceptions, is completely under the control of our fighters. The Russian Armed Forces have established themselves in the buildings in the area of ​​the Central Market on Svetlaya Street (Vulytsya Svitla), where they are accumulating forces to continue the assault operations. In the west of the city, units of our army have reached the Khimkolonna microdistrict, located north of the Tsentralnaya mine waste heaps, having advanced there by almost a kilometer. Measures are being taken to consolidate the newly occupied positions.

Ukrainian names in parenthesis*

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... cember-5fb

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Putin Medvedev Warn Kiev US More Annexations, Russia Destroys 4 Patriots, Jihadis Ask Russia Stay

Alexander Mercouri

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKPbzgztyzI

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Everyone at war for peace

Lorenzo Maria Pacini

December 14, 2024

Can soldiers from NATO countries become “peacekeepers” in a conflict in which they participate?

There was no doubt: Italy is ready to officially enter the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Everything according to plan.

After having signed a ten-year agreement to supply weapons to the Ukraine of the despot Zelensky, the Italy of the Meloni government has thought well to come forward with the idea of ​​a "peacekeeping mission". The purpose of the initiative would be to facilitate a possible ceasefire or a peace agreement.

Briefly, peacekeeping, which can be translated literally as “peacekeeping,” is an activity carried out primarily by the United Nations to assist states or regions affected by conflicts in order to achieve and maintain peace. These are international operations composed of military, civilian, and police personnel from different member states, acting under a mandate from the UN Security Council. The main objective is to prevent the resumption of hostilities and to create a stable and secure environment to foster lasting peace processes.

These missions are based on three fundamental principles:

Consent of the parties involved: Peacekeeping operations can only be launched with the consent of the government and the main parties to the conflict.

Neutrality: Peacekeepers act impartially, avoiding favoring one side over the other.

Limited use of force: Force is used only in self-defense or to protect the mission mandate.

Well-known examples of peacekeeping missions include operations in Bosnia, Rwanda, Lebanon and Mali. Indeed, peacekeeping is an essential tool for the international community in promoting global peace and security, despite the difficulties it often encounters in its implementation.

The Italian Ministry of Defense under the leadership of Guido Crosetto says it is ready for the role of peacekeeping for Italy, while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs under the leadership of Antonio Tajani believes, instead, that the time is not yet ripe. Russians and Ukrainians are too far from an agreement and indeed European countries are increasingly inclined to formalize their entry into the conflict.

French President Emmanuel Macron had already floated the idea of ​​a deployment of men in February, involving all European partners, a proposal that was discussed again last Monday, at the trilateral table of Macron with Zelensky and Donald Trump, who is traveling in Europe to ensure that his colonies are operating at full capacity. The justification for this intervention would be the protection of Kiev in view of its entry into NATO, Macron explained; but this would mean, strictly speaking, that immediately afterwards the whole of NATO would come into direct conflict with Russia. We all know that this is already the case, but European politicians like to joke at length with citizens.

A good excuse to camouflage NATO's war project is to establish an international peacekeeping force. The Ukrainian government likes the idea, but it does not convince other European leaders, such as Viktor Orban for Hungary and Donald Tusk for Poland, but not even Olaf Scholz in Germany who avoided expressing himself on the subject because of the proximity of the elections, leaving the floor to Annalena Bearbock who praised the initiative but accused Putin of a lack of openness to pacification.

The ball is then passed to Italy, which is always at the forefront in these matters (for better or for worse), with the blessing of Kaja Kallas, High Representative of the EU, who with a play on words managed to accuse Russia of not wanting peace, reiterating the imminence of Kiev's entry into the Atlantic Treaty.

A truly unusual or, better yet, truly typically American way of bringing peace: with bombs. Where it is not possible to do so with direct and destructive engagement, they proceed with covert destabilization, with aggressive diplomacy and with the “dirty game” of secret missions on foreign soil. The Western press continues to deliberately ignore the fact that American and some European officials have been present in Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict.

To be able to trust a peacekeeping force, one certainly cannot hope for a contingent composed of Western countries that are in clear conflict of interest. To make themselves credible, a deployment of men from non-NATO and non-European states would be necessary, in order to guarantee at least externally a neutrality. But, as we know, the UN is an American creature and its ties with NATO are very close, so we cannot expect anything good from a proposal of this type.

What is lacking, however, is the West's will to sit down again at the negotiating table with Russia, which since the beginning of the conflict has sought the path of diplomacy, but has been continually rejected and accused of not wanting peace.

The hypocrisy of the West will be its own grave.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... r-la-pace/

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‘NATO or Nothing’, Ukraine’s Leaders Affirm as Military Prospects Dim
Posted by Internationalist 360° on December 15, 2024
Dmitri Kovalevich

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At the beginning of December, almost all Ukrainian politicians were endlessly promoting NATO membership for Ukraine. Ukrainians were told by all television broadcasters (all of which work under heavy state censorship) that NATO membership is the only salvation for the country. Membership is even being presented as the meaning and goal of Ukraine’s existence in its current form; otherwise, it is said by Ukraine’s unelected rulers, Ukraine may come to resemble neighboring Belarus, which they consider to be a terrible place.

The obsession with NATO membership is a consequence of Ukraine’s steady stream of military setbacks as well as its apprehensions over the change in the US presidential administration to take place in January 2025. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (whose electoral mandate expired in April 2024) and the pro-government media in Ukraine have deepened their alarming tones in recent days, shifting to tones of extreme urgency in their appeals to be permitted into NATO membership.

Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha sent a letter in late November to the foreign ministries of NATO countries asking them to quickly extend Ukraine an invitation to join the alliance, specifically naming the dates of December 3 and 4 to formally begin a process. Those were the dates of a-then forthcoming meeting of NATO foreign ministers. Reuters news agency reported on November 29, “Ukraine says it accepts that it cannot join the alliance until the war [with Russia] is over, but extending an invitation now would show Russian President Vladimir Putin that he cannot achieve one of his main goals – preventing Kyiv from becoming a NATO member.”

Britain’s Sky News reported on November 29 that Zelensky supports Ukraine’s accession to NATO with only a part of its territories, writing, “He appeared to accept occupied [sic] eastern parts of the country would fall outside of such a deal for the time being.” But Zelensky then emphasized on December 1 that “there can be no invitation to NATO for a part of Ukraine’s territories.”

NATO wants ‘war now, NATO membership later’

Statements by NATO representatives make it clear that Ukraine will not receive any invitation from the organization in the near future. The alliance’s new secretary-general, Mark Rutte (prime minister of Netherlands from 2010 to 2024), said on December 3 that the issue of Kiev’s membership in NATO was of secondary importance to the provision of military assistance. “We [NATO] have to make sure that Ukraine gets into a position of strength, and then it should be for the Ukrainian government to decide on the next steps in opening peace talks and how to conduct them.”

The above November 29 report by Reuters wrote, “Although NATO has stated that Ukraine’s path to membership is ‘irreversible’, the alliance has not set a date or issued an invitation. Diplomats said there was currently no consensus among its 32 members to do so. Some countries are waiting to decide their stance until they learn the position of the incoming U.S. administration of President-elect Donald Trump…”

According to the author of the Ukrainian Telegram channel Rubicon, a hypothetical realization of the ‘NATO membership in exchange for territory’ formula would allow Zelensky to retain power in a post-war Ukraine. In such a scenario, Rubicon writes, Zelensky could claim that he “achieved the realization of the eternal dream of the Ukrainian people and brought the country into the Western world, under the protection of American arms, albeit at the cost of great sacrifices and territorial losses.”

Rubicon continues, “Given that preserving power is an unambiguous priority for the current Ukrainian elites, it is not surprising that such a scenario seems attractive to them. However, it should be taken into account that ‘NATO membership in exchange for territory’ is a formula that originated in the ranks of the U.S. Democratic Party. Its main goal is to achieve ‘ironclad assurance’ that a large part of Ukraine would become an American sphere of influence.”

NATO membership as alternative to peace

There is an additional aspect of Kiev’s intensified aspiration for NATO membership, and that is to prevent a negotiated end to its conflict with Russia. For Russia, a non-aligned and neutral Ukraine is one of the main goals of its military operation, whereas for the Zelensky-run Kiev, a continuation of military operations means it can indefinitely cancel the holding of elections. In this respect, the statement by Ukraine ‘we want to join NATO’ amounts to stating ‘we want to continue the war’.

In order to please NATO, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukraine Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi announced at the end of November a new, forthcoming military ‘counter-offensive’ to take place sometime soon. But this ‘announcement’ is entirely belied by the fact that the AFU does not even have the strength to hold its current positions. Many military analysts in Ukraine are left pondering why a military operation (‘counter-offensive’) would be announced in advance and how this squares with Western media reports citing a lack of secrecy by the AFU as one of the reasons for the total failure of its previous ‘counteroffensive’ (in early summer 2023).

Other experts do not understand what kind of ‘counter-offensive’ could be mounted in conditions where the AFU has been steadily retreating. “In the last seven days alone, the Russian army has captured almost 235 square kilometers of territory, a record advance so far for one week in 2024,” notes a perplexed, former legislator and former speaker of the fascist Right Sector grouping Boryslav Bereza on Telegram. “What kind of ‘counter-offensive’ are we talking about?”, he asks.

Yevhen Ievlev, an AFU serviceman, told the Kyiv 24 television channel in late November that, in his view, the Ukrainian Armed Forces urgently needs to mobilize almost two million new recruits before any consideration of a ‘counter-offensive’ could be made. Many of these recruits will die, he notes, leading him to ask who, exactly, would control the newly ‘liberated’ territories?

Tensions over extending military conscription

At the beginning of December, the tensions over ‘soldiers or weapons for Ukraine’ only intensified, with the US and NATO countries demanding that Kiev step up military conscription, while Zelensky says the priority should be the provision of more weapons. This conflict is coming to a head over demands by the Western powers that Ukraine lower the age of its obligatory military service for men from the age of 25 to 18 years.

The age limit was already lowered in the spring of 2023, from 27 to 25. Associated Press wrote at the time, “Zelenskyy took almost a year to sign the law lowering the conscription age, perhaps reflecting how unpopular such a move might be.” BBC Russia wrote on December 10, 2024, “This decision was not easy. For society this issue is painful and the president delayed the signing of the new law by nine months.”

The outgoing Biden administration is increasingly voicing disappointment with the failure of Ukrainian authorities to take more decisive steps to replenish the heavy losses being suffered by their armed forces. Additionally, the Washington Post voiced concerns in a December 2 report that the US simply does not have enough weapons to supply Ukraine in the quantities being asked for power its military conscription age to 18. But because of the plummeting birth rates in Ukraine during the economically harsh decades following the demise of Soviet Ukraine and the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the numbers of 18- to 25-year-olds in Ukraine is not high, and their conscription will consequently provide very little replenishment for the army.

Adding to the misery for Ukraine’s military leaders are the large numbers of men who have fled the country or who are taking advantage of exemptions from service. For example, Reuters reported in August 2024, “In the first six months of 2024, Ukraine’s Ministry of Education and Science reported an astounding 246,000 individuals applying for postgraduate or masters-level courses, compared to only 7,000-9,000 doing such courses before the war.”

On December 4, Ukrainian media reported US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken urging Ukraine to step up its military conscription. Similar calls are also being issued by some in the Republican Party camp in Washington. Republican Congresswoman Victoria Spartz has gone so far as to tell a recent interview with CNN that in order to win its war, Kiev needs to mobilize the entire country similar to what the USSR achieved during World War II, She believes that lowering the mobilization age to 18 is now insufficient. “When the Soviet Union fought World War Two, everyone was contributing to the war, from the smallest child to the oldest person. You cannot just have some young, brave people fighting on behalf of everyone else…”

Most people in Soviet Ukraine and the Soviet Union were of course profoundly affected by the catastrophic war launched by Nazi Germany in June 1941. But Spartz’ image of children and the elderly fighting in trenches or other combat operations is far from the truth. Only some 14% of the Soviet Union population overall was directly mobilized in the armed forces, and only some two-thirds of those took part in combat operations.

Ex-company commander of the neo-Nazi Aidar battalion writes on Telegram that the AFU recruits only half the number of men needed to replace sanitary (non-combat) losses alone. And that does account for high losses to desertion. In other words, the continuation of warfare in the conditions into which Ukraine has been pushed and cajoled amounts to a systematic destruction by US and NATO military hawks of an entire people. Some may even call this a form of genocide.

Ukraine’s bad example for Georgia

The example of Ukraine has become an extremely negative one for most post-Soviet countries. In November-December, for example, protests supported by the West have taken place in Georgia, in the Caucasus region and bordering Russia. Events there are following the pattern of the ‘Euromaidan coup’ in Ukraine in 2013-2014, which effectively destroyed the country.

A large reason for the protests in Georgia is that the current government has placed a hold on integration of the country into the European Union. A similar decision was taken by the elected president and government of Ukraine in late 2013, which far-right forces then used to spark a violent drive to a coup on February 21, 2014.

The driving force behind the current protests in Georgia are local, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), of which there are a great many in the country. Almost all of them are funded by the West. Georgian authorities warn that the West wants to turn their country into a second Ukraine. “We will not give anyone an opportunity either outside or inside the country to use Georgia in the interests of a foreign state. We will not give an opportunity to carry out ‘Ukrainization’,” said Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze on December 3. Earlier, he said that a Maidan scenario cannot and must not be realized in Georgia.

“For many Georgians, any analogy with Ukraine raises alarm rather than hope,” writes The Economist on December 2. The publication openly refers to the ‘Georgian Maidan’ as being an “anti-Russian protest”.

Political leaders in Georgia have resisted Western attempts to use their country to open a ‘second front’ against Russia. They remember too well the reckless conduct of a previous government in Georgia in 2008, which provoked a short-lived and disastrous (for Georgia) military clash with Russia.

Two months ago, the honorary chairman of the governing Georgian Dream party Irakli Garibashvili told media that a senior Western official told former Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Garibashvili that Georgia should “fight Russia for three or four days and then launch guerrilla warfare in the forests.” Garibashvili also said that in 2008, Georgia and Ukraine were not accepted into NATO by the alliance’s “real coordinators” because they were preparing to use the populations of both countries as cannon fodder against Russia.

The Zelensky regime has imposed sanctions against the leadership of Georgia and is calling on the EU and US to do likewise.

The worst nightmare for the NATO leadership would be reconciliation between Ukrainians, Georgians, Moldovans, and Russians, as eventually took place between Russians and Chechens following two brutal wars in the 1990s and 2000s.

Dealing with Ukrainian men as ‘cornered rats’

Modern Ukraine is under the full control of the Western countries, and as a result, has become hell for the Ukrainians themselves. Every day, men are fleeing the country westward along snow-covered mountain trails or other perilous routes, while growing numbers of women are leaving the country with their children in order that the children may never be subject to military conscription. (In addition, millions of former residents of Ukraine have taken refuge in Russia.) During the daytime hours in Ukrainian cities, only elderly women can be seen walking the streets. In the darkness of evening (most street lighting no longer operates due to war damage), the only visible lighting are the flashlights of the ‘man hunters’, that is, the military enlistment officers, hunting down dwindling numbers of men of military age, to soon be carted off to the front lines.

Even the pro-war Telegraph newspaper in Britain quotes Ukrainian military enlistment officers acknowledging that they are treating the Ukraine population like ‘cornered rats’. “Sometimes it’s like dealing with a cornered rat,” Officer ‘Artem’ told The Telegraph as he explained how he muscles his targets into vans and sends them off to awaiting military recruitment centres. He added, “They continue fighting us even while locked in our vehicle. Those who resist always threaten to take revenge on our guys or their families.”

At first, Artem said, he felt pity for the detainees, but then he realized that if such people are not shipped to the front, he would be there in their place.

Western governments and even some of the ‘human rights organizations’ they help finance are not only turning a blind eye to the large-scale human rights violations taking place amid conscription in Ukraine, but are also urging Kiev to intensify its efforts to, in the words of Ukrainian military commander Artem, ‘corner conscription evaders like rats’.

The many Telegram channels based in Ukraine which report on conscription compare Ukraine’s practices with the actions of the German Nazi armies occupying Soviet territories.

Heorhiy Mazurashu a legislator from Zelensky’s ‘Servant of the People’ party machine, has accused Ukraine’s political and military leadership of acting like “modern-day slave owners”. He urges his followers and readers not to believe polls about the moods in Ukrainian society which are duly forwarded by representatives of the Ukrainian government to Western media and creditors. “According to polls, 70% of Ukrainians are in favor of fighting to the last man, but only 30% of those live in Ukraine,” he comments wryly, saying that social surveys of the attitudes of Ukrainians are not conducted in Ukraine but abroad.

Despite all the obvious violations of human rights taking place in Ukraine, including the mass kidnappings of men to fight and die on NATO-created battlefields and large-scale corruption in the provision of military supplies, Western politicians persist in calling Ukraine a ‘democracy’. But for most Ukrainians today, Western-style democracy has simply become synonymous with the destruction of the country and its population.

Most recent news: Russian troops advance to within kilometers of center of key transport city of Pokrovsk in Donbass region, CNN, Dec 12, 2024. [Pokrovsk had a pre-war population of 60,000. It lies some 60 km west of Donetsk city and 75 km south of the key industrial and transport city of Kramatorsk. It is approximately 200 km south of Kharkov, the second largest city in Ukraine, and 150 km east of Dnipro, the fourth largest city in the country.]

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Dec 17, 2024 1:05 pm

Berlin Declaration
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 12/17/2024

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“European leaders are scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO chief Mark Rutte on Wednesday afternoon in Brussels to discuss peace plans and the possible deployment of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine,” Politico announced on Friday , confirming what was already known: NATO is leading the effort to coordinate what may happen in the coming months in the war in Ukraine, which on the ground will depend on European countries. “In addition to Rutte and Zelensky, invited participants include: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish President Andrzej Duda, European Council President António Costa, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen,” the outlet added, to show who the main actors are in preparing for the possibility of a significant reduction in the United States’ role in the day-to-day running of the war.

However, this meeting is not the only initiative in which these and other countries are participating, together with the European Union and NATO, in their task of maintaining control of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and preventing a move to a diplomatic path that the European countries do not consider favourable. Physical proximity to the conflict is one aspect that differentiates the continental countries from their American ally. This is precisely Donald Trump's argument for leaving the management of the conflict in European hands once it is on track in a way that Washington considers acceptable. Much more interested in defeating Russia than Donald Trump, whose party has a current that advocates a rapprochement with Russia to deprive Beijing of its strategic ally in Moscow, the European countries are looking for a way to guarantee the status quo of the war regime, even if this means accepting the possibility that a ceasefire may occur. In this approach, which attempts to camouflage the desire to continue the war until Ukraine meets the common goals of destroying Russia and completely breaking up the continent as a brave fight for justice, a ceasefire is not a step towards peace but an obstacle or even a betrayal. This is how Ukraine seems to see it, which, contrary to Donald Trump's statements, who claims that Zelensky wants to end the war and is seeking an agreement with Russia, reacted by aggressively rejecting the Hungarian proposal for a Christmas ceasefire. This brief pause after which the war would have resumed - as has happened with each and every attempt to cease the violence of this war in the last decade - would have helped Ukraine to ease the situation of its troops in areas where, as in the Kurajovo area, they are practically under siege.

“We, the foreign ministers of Spain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the United Kingdom, as well as the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, met today with the foreign minister of Ukraine at a decisive moment in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” begins the Berlin Declaration, the manifesto with which the chosen countries insist on their unconditional support for Kiev. The text is not the umpteenth reaffirmation that the Western countries will support Ukraine as long as necessary , but rather the confirmation that the approach of a just peace has been adopted as its own , a formulation that should not be misleading despite the beauty of the words. “The objectives of a comprehensive, just and lasting peace for Ukraine and of lasting security for Europe are inseparable. Ukraine must prevail,” the declaration states. With these two simple sentences, the signatory countries accept as their own the idea that Ukraine has tried so hard to establish, that its security is collective security and that its downfall would also be the downfall of Europe. In fact, as high-ranking officials such as Mikhail Podolyak have repeatedly stated, the loss of Ukraine to Russian hands would be a complete defeat of Western civilization – a concept that, when framed as a struggle between Europe and the afterlife, as the President’s Office adviser does, is notoriously racist. More explicit than any Ukrainian official, however, has been Boris Johnson. “If Ukraine falls, it will be a catastrophe for the West. It will be the end of Western hegemony and we will have no one to blame but ourselves,” the former British prime minister said in a video posted on social media.

The threat of catastrophe demands assistance and brotherhood. “After more than 1,000 days of Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine, we remain steadfast in our solidarity. We will continue to support Ukraine in its right to self-defense against Russian aggression,” the statement reaffirms, the most important content of which is the implications of that right to self-defense in the conditions in which it occurs. After condemning the Russian invasion, the escalation of attacks on energy infrastructure and the presence of North Korean troops in the war – without mentioning, of course, that these troops are fighting in the Russian Kursk region, for which Russia does not have to give explanations to any of the signatory countries – the statement reiterates its “firm support for a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine, in accordance with international law, including the Charter of the United Nations, with full respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.” This mention is a way of reaffirming support for the restoration of the internationally recognised borders of 1991, that is, the recovery of Crimea and Donbass, in the latter case, without the guarantees of political rights implied by the Minsk agreements, considered unviable by kyiv and its allies. The Ukrainian failure to comply with the only peace agreements signed in this war or the fact that the return of these territories without security guarantees for their population was a way of rewarding the initial Ukrainian aggression are not aspects to be taken into account by Western capitals, for which only territorial integrity is relevant, important in the countries defended by the West, although not so relevant in the opponents. All the signatory countries collaborated in the illegal invasion of Iraq or in the dismemberment of Yugoslavia, countries that apparently did not deserve compliance with international legislation, international humanitarian law, non-interference by foreigners in internal affairs or protection of their sovereignty.

“We will increase military, economic and financial assistance to Ukraine, including by mobilizing additional European funds. We stress that a swift and collective implementation of the $50 billion G7 loan, in which Europeans play a major role, will help Ukraine meet urgent needs, including military ones. We remain committed to supporting Ukraine’s repair, recovery and reconstruction, in coordination with international partners. Italy will host the 2025 Ukraine Recovery Conference. We will continue to limit the build-up of Russia’s military capabilities. We will put more pressure on the Kremlin’s sources of revenue, including from energy,” the statement continued, outlining the steps that the signatory countries will continue to take next year. More funding to pay for the weapons with which to continue the war, loans at the expense of retained Russian assets and reparations based on the conference model to promote the neoliberal path of privatisation, financialisation and impoverishment that have already been held these past two years in London and Berlin are the basis of European policy with regard to Ukraine.

Despite the proximity of the front and the spectre of warmongering that is haunting Europe, there is not a single hint in this speech of a search for a viable resolution to the conflict. Ukraine is aware that it lacks the military strength to achieve its objective of expelling Russia from Donbass or Crimea, regions in which the return of the territory would have to be carried out against majority opinion, and, since before the Russian invasion, Zelensky has made it clear publicly that this part of the population is unwanted (in his Christmas speech in 2021, the president called on this population that feels Russian, the majority, for example, in Crimea, to move to Russia). Although he recognises that it is not possible today, the military route is the only one by which Ukraine could achieve its objective of reintegrating all the territories according to their internationally recognised borders. The reaffirmation that this is the objective and the enumeration of measures to achieve it is a de facto acceptance of this reality.

The will to maintain the war regime in the long term is reflected both in the political position and in the measures to support it. “There can be no peace negotiations in Ukraine without the Ukrainians, and without the Europeans at their side,” the statement says, demanding a place at the negotiating table alongside Kiev to dialogue solely according to the Ukrainian approach. “We reaffirm our commitment to President Zelensky’s Peace Formula, as a credible path to a just and lasting peace.” The just and lasting peace of Zelensky’s plan implies the unilateral withdrawal of Russian troops from the entire Ukrainian territory, security guarantees only for Ukraine – that is, entry into NATO – and not for the forcibly reintegrated population, and military tribunals exclusively for Russian crimes, an approach that Kiev could only impose after having militarily defeated Russia, something that even the Ukrainian president knows will not happen. To cling to this proposal as a viable approach is to deny any possibility of negotiated peace.

Once peace is rejected, only warmongering remains. “Convinced that peace in Ukraine and security in Europe are inseparable, we are determined to remain united with our European and transatlantic partners in thinking and acting on a grand scale in terms of European security,” insist NATO and the select group of European member countries, adding that “we see this as an opportunity to renew the foundations of the transatlantic Alliance with the United States of America, by strengthening NATO and ensuring a fair burden-sharing within the Alliance, including by increasing EU efforts in the areas of security and defence, and by building a safer and more united Europe.” The rhetoric of peace and continental security ultimately leads back to square one: a more militarised Europe, subservient to the interests of the United States and trying to present NATO, one of the main causes of the current Russo-Ukrainian war, as the solution to all ills.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/12/17/declaracion-berlin/

Google Translator

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Brief report from the front on December 16, 2024

The Uspenovsky pocket has closed! Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.

Zinderneuf
Dec 16, 2024

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(Map key: ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 30.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 30th, 2024)

In the Velikaya Novosyolka area (Velyka Novosilka), as a result of attacks using armored vehicles, Russian forces re-entered the settlement of Novy Komar, where they managed to gain a foothold in the southeastern part of the settlement. Thus, the Komar-Velikaya Novosyolka road, along which supplies were being delivered, was physically cut off. Supplies to the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the north are only possible along field roads. They also advanced toward the road leading to Velikaya Novosyolka from the west. Our units there bypassed the dominant heights near Storozhevoe to the north and are conducting attacks not only toward the road, but also in the direction of Neskuchnoe.

Pressure is also being exerted on this settlement from the eastern bank of the Mokrye Yaly River from the Blagovatnoye (Blahodatne) area. Southwest of the latter, the Russian Armed Forces crossed the river and gained a foothold in the southern part of Storozhevoe, and also cut off the road leading to Neskuchnoe. In Makarovka, the RF are forming a "bag" for the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine located to the north and northwest.

In the Kurakhovsky section, our forces are creating a threat to cut the N15 road not only in the area of ​​the settlement Dachnoe, but also in the area of ​​the settlement Ulakly. Units of our army quickly reached the settlement Zelenovka, located to the south of the settlement Ulakly, and consolidated themselves in it. The control zone is expanding in the direction of Zelenovka to strengthen our positions there. Control is also expanding in the Sukhie Yaly-Konstantinopolskoe (Kostyantynopolske) section.

According to incoming information, the enemy was driven out of a strong point located near the settlement Uspenovka on the western bank of the river. It can be stated that the "Uspenovka pocket" has closed, and the remaining units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in it will be able to leave it only along a narrow section of practically open terrain along the bank, posing as targets for our soldiers and suffering heavy losses in the process. A similar picture was in the area of ​​the settlement Annovka (Hannivka), after leaving which, according to reports from their own side, the enemy lost several hundred personnel. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of the settlement of Elizavetovka.

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In Kurakhovo, our fighters completely took control of the high-rise area. The Ukrainian Armed Forces retained the industrial zone and several buildings in the area of ​​the park, located west of the main high-rise building. It is reported that some of the most trained Ukrainian soldiers were withdrawn from Kurakhovo, leaving mostly mobilized soldiers there.

Northwest of Kurakhovo, attacks continue from the area of ​​the settlement Starye Terny in the direction of both the settlement Dachnoe and the settlement Shevchenko, on the outskirts of which our forward detachments are trying to gain a foothold. The enemy is putting up quite serious resistance, trying to keep the road to Kurakhovo for themselves.

Attacks in the direction of Petrovpavlovka began from the area of ​​the settlement Sontsovka. According to some reports, our forces managed to advance towards it. It should be noted that the area of ​​the settlements of Petropavlovka - Shevchenko - Andreevka is equipped with densely located enemy strongholds, who are now concentrating forces here to counter our units and prevent them from reaching the Andreevka - Constantinople/Konstantinopolskoe (Kostyantynopolske) area, which will mean the elimination of the entire "Kurakhovka pocket."

Ukrainian names in parenthesis*

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... cember-e21

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The Ukrainian Black Hole Gathers the Storm of World War III
by Gordonhahn
December 15, 2024

Introduction

In Zbigniew Brzezinski’s The Grand Chessboard, published in 1997, the year NATO expansion began, the Polish-American sovietologist described post-Soviet Russia as a „black hole.“ As we all know, a black hole draws any and all objects into it once they enter their field of gravity. It turns out that Ukraine has become the world’s black hole, with Russia and all the world affected by the conflict. Effects include but are not limited to a restructuring of the international system and a split of the world into two camps, a weakening and redirection of trade relations, a breakdown in consideration of international law, and growing authoritarianism worldwide. In brief, the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War is dragging much of the world into the conflict directly or indirectly. In some cases, participation — however attenuated or indirect – is already leading to deepening involvement. In the event the war continues, many countries will be dragged inexorably beyond indirect action (military and other forms of assistance) and then direct action (military participation), including perhaps open combatant status. It is how these latter two aspects related to military-related support of and direct military participation in the conflict are overlapping with or helping to revive other conflicts that I attempt to address below.

Russia as a great power was, is, and always will be a very interested party in Ukrainian affairs, as the two countries are neighbors and deeply interconnected, having, at least until recently, deep historical, cultural, economic, military-industrial, and political ties. Russia’s post-Soviet involvement in all these ways in Ukraine was a matter of necessity, not one of choice. NATO’s decision and efforts to expand NATO to Ukraine over the last thirty years marked an ‚involvement of choice‘ pursuing the maximization of U.S. global power – the luxury of a powerful military alliance led by the world’s lone superpower at the time. This brought nearly all of Europe in addition to the U.S. – some 30 or so countries – to involvement in Ukraine.

Symptoms of this deep Western involvement include but are far from limited to European powers support of anti-Russian revolutionary forces in Ukraine, including neofascist elements, involvement in negotiating an agreement they eventually would abandon to regulate the revolutionary process they had nurtured to put the Maidan revolt on a less rowdy, more certain, regulated path, participation in the Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 peace processes, the supply of NATOizing military assistance to Ukraine (2014-present) after its declaration of an ‚anti-terrorist operation‘ against a small group of Donbass separatists counteracting the Maidan revolt with their own, and the supply of almost all types of weapons, training, intelligence, economic, and financial assistance to Ukraine since the start of the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War in February 2022. Again, this is a short, schematic list.

The war is now dragging the rest of the world, extending far beyond Europe and western Eurasia. Putting aside non-state, ‚volunteer‘ military involvement from numerous Western and non-Western countries and even more widescale economic and political assistance tot he war’s parties, there is now Western and non-Western states‘ expanding and often deepening military involvement in the war. Regarding the former, it suffices to note China’s and India’s purchase of Western-sanctioned Russian oil and gas for resale and transport to other countries, including Western ones. More importantly, countries ranging from Asia to Africa to Europe are supplying the two sides with weapons and other forms of support, and other wars across the globe are beginning to overlap with the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War.

The enormous if dwindling military supplies provided by the West and its closest allies are well known, and I will not discuss them here. These supplies are intrinsic to the Ukrainian War, as they involve the covert combatant, NATO. This involvement does not bring the war outside the European region. It is the support of far-flung countries supporting Moscow from the global South and the overlap with other wars not involving Western countries directly if at all, that is globalizing the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War and fueling a nascent World War III. In addition, Western responses to this activity are also helping to connect the Ukrainian War with other regions and their particular conflicts and wars. But the epicenter of this military and militarily-related activity is the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War, and the longer it burns, the greater the likelihood that its overlap with and incitement of other conflicts will bring us closer to a global war—World War III.

<snip>

The Ukrainian War and Sino-American Confrontation

The NATO-Russian Ukrainian War is having a wide-ranging impact on the intensifying Sino-American competition to, for America’s part, preserve U.S. global hegemony, and for China’s, to establish a bilateral or multilateral international order, in which China anchors an alternative pole to counterbalance the American-Western pole that once constituted the international system‘s unipolar structure after communism’s collapse. The Ukrainian War has strengthened the Sino-Russian near alliance or ‚strategic partnership‘ and its push to build an alternative world order the Chinese and Russians are networking together in a series of overlapping economic, financial, and political-military international organizations and institutions: BRICS+, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). These institutions are not only organizing the global East and South, the Rest, against or at least alternatively to the West, but are encroaching on the West’s own power base. Thus, Turkey was preparing for associate membership in BRICS+, though this development will be on hold for a while as a result of Erdogan’s betrayal of Putin in Syria. Former close U.S. ally Saudi Arabia is also moving to join the organization.

Although Beijing has not openly sided with Russia in Ukraine and has supported rhetorically the principle of national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it has been clear in stating that NATO provoked Russia’s invasion and is responsible for the outbreak of the war. In terms of action, China has supported the Russian war effort with technology for weapons and ignored some Western threats of sanctions and fallen under the hammer of some. Indeed, China has seen Western sanctions against it expand. In response, China announced in early December a ban on exports to the U.S. of gallium, germanium, antimony and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications.(www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/dec/3 ... 3222245443). This developing trade war is driven by the Ukrainian war and the resulting Chinese military-related assistance to Moscow mentioned earlier. It cannot be ruled out that as the Ukrainian War reaches its culmination next year, the losing side will choose to foment a conflict around Taiwan or in the South China Sea.

t is no coincidence that it is during the Ukrainian war and its worsening of Sino-American relations that NATO has opened an office in Japan and is mirroring the network of network approach taken by the Russians and Chinese by initiating interaction between NATO and newly created Western security organizations in Asia: AUKUS and QUAD.

The Ukrainian and Korean Wars

It may come as a surprise to many Westerners, but the North and South Koreans remain in a state of war – a ‚frozen conflict‘, if you will, since the 1950s in the absence of a peace agreement. With the strategic partnership agreement signed by Moscow with North Korea and the latter’s supply of artillery shells and other military equipment, Pyongyag is involved in the war even in lieu of any North Korean troops fighting in the Ukrainian war, for which there is no evidence even, according to the Pentagon and Ukrainian troops (https://ctrana.one/news/476136-itohi-10 ... e_vignette).

One wonders whether the recent political upheaval in Seoul was somehow incited by the West and Ukraine. Alexander Mercouris has put forward the interesting hypothesis that the failed coup by South Korean President Yoon was an attempt to circumvent parliamentary and popular opposition to greater and open weapons supplies to Ukraine, citing some circumstantial evidence (https://rumble.com/v5vzwr5-south-korea- ... src_v1_ucp). This is not so far-fetched, as even Mercouris himself seemed to feel. Upon the media reports that North Koreans were soon to be fighting in Ukraine or in the Kursk salient against Ukrainian troops, South Korea announced it might step up the present level of its weapons and other support to Ukraine. On November 6th, it was revealed that Seoul was considering various responses to the alleged participation by North Korean troops in the Ukrainian War (www.news1.kr/nk/military/5584234 and http://www.asiapacific.ca/publication/s ... ops-russia). On November 26th South Korean leader Yoon Suk Yeol met with a delegation from Ukraine led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and called for Seoul and Kiev to develop countermeasures in response to Russian-North Korean military cooperation (https://apnews.com/article/south-korea- ... 247263c3c9). This visit of a Ukrainian delegation to Seoul led by Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who met with self-proclaimed progenitor of the idea of coup by President Yoon, the South Korean Defense Minister, is missing from the analysis. Could Umerov haver slipped the Koreans ‘intelligence’ of Ukrainian, American and/or British origin citing the alleged North Korean infiltration of the South’s parliament?

As Kim Jong Un becomes emboldened by the new support emanating from Moscow, the nascent world war incited by NATO-Russia Ukrainian War could bring a restart of war on the Korean peninsula. As some have observed, Russian technology transfers to Seoul could shift the balance of power on the peninsula and destabilize ist cold peace (www.usip.org/publications/2024/11/how-s ... ers-russia). Any response by Seoul could further escalate tensions, leading to resuscitation of conflict. Any Korean conflict could intersect with the growing tensions between China and the West over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

The Ukrainian War and Post-Soviet Frozen Conflicts

The Ukrainian war has perhaps the most direct effect on post-Soviet states in Eurasia, where frozen conflicts remain or could be reignited. In Georgia, which has the the same status as Ukraine that, according to NATO policy, will one day be a member of NATO, should not be assumed to have left the era of frozen conflicts behind. Recent instability in Abkhaziya, the past history with Mikheil Saakashvili’s August 20028 South Ossetiyan War, and Western intelligence services‘ intently and capacity to engage in mischief wherever Russian interests can be damaged all tell us this. There seems no doubt that the recent Georgian election results have been used by the West to incite what have now become violent protests in that nation’s capital in an effort to escalate horizontally against Russian interests. The Georgian Dream government has been rejecting tensions with Moscow, condemning the Mikheil Saakashvili era and U.S. meddling at the time and is likely set to begin a more full normalization of Georgian-Russian relations. We have seen this movie before. In this sequel, the threat is real of a repeat of the Maidan experience, in which an illegal seizure of power in the nation’s capital spreads to other parts of the country, sparking a civil war. If this was to happen, then the Ukrainian War will have sparked another conflict.

A similar risk hangs over Moldova, which already has a ‚frozen conflict‘ in breakaway Transnistria, which can be unfrozen easily by interested parties, most likely Washington and Kiev. The Russian base and troops in Transnistria bordering Ukraine are somewhat isolated from the Russian motherland. Moldova has undergone election instability and shenanigans this past year, with some 50,000 Moldovan citizens living in Russia deprived of the franchise by way of Kishinev’s short supply of ballot forms to the Moldovan embassy in Moscow. The recent presidential elections in Romania, which strongly supports Ukraine and Moldova’s alienation from Moscow and has designs on Moldova’s integration with Bucharest, marked another theater in which the Ukrainian war could impinge on post-Soviet Russian conflicts. The victor in the election’s first round was a pro-Russian candidate. This did not suit the majority of the Romanian and European elite, with the EU condemning the outcome. In quick response, the Romanian Constitutional Court annulled the election results and required a re-vote. In 2004, a similar situation occurred nowhere else than in Ukraine. In lieu of the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War, the cancelled election’s outcome and the risk it poses for Romania’s political stability would never have happened. Any instability in Romania could influence the already shaky situation in Moldova-Transdneistria. Perhaps it is here that the overlap with Ukraine’s war poses the gravest threat of sparking a new military conflict.

Finally, it must be noted that many of the conflicts being exacerbated by the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War impinge on China’s ambitious One Belt One Road project. One or a combination of several oft hem could put this Greater Eurasian grand project and in turn Chinese internal stability at risk, prompting Chinese military intervention.

Conclusion

The Ukrainian crisis begun in the 21st century by way of NATO expansion and the conflicts it is reawakening has grave lessons for us all. These events are another, rather conclusive piece of evidence that international relations is still governed by human power lust, great power geopolitics, wars, national fears, and imperial dreams, not the end of history and triumph of a democratic peace. Realist self-interest, refined perceptions of self-interest constructed by historical interpretations embedded in national cultures (cultural interpretations of history and national interests), and power maximization driven by human narcissism and ambitions drive the tragedy of human history. If NATO expansion, the Ukrainian black hole, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Israel’s brutal war on Gaza, and now the apparent Turkish proxy-led invasion of Syria, its evolution into a neo-Ottoman imperial project, and the Israeli invasion of Golan and southern Syria have not gotten this message across, nothing will. The Ukrainian black hole, forged by the adepts of ‚democratic peace‘ and universal human values, is drawing the world into its calamitous vortex and spinning off new black holes that if conjoined can implode what remains of democracy, peace, and human values.

(Much more at link.)

https://gordonhahn.com/2024/12/15/the-u ... d-war-iii/

Hahn is another petty booj idealist commentator who has mystical belief in 'republican virtue'...His view of history skews to the ruling class but he has decent respect for Russia(but not the USSR!) and is a pretty good observer of international relations. However, where did he get the idea that the Nazis were expunged from the Maiden regime? Formerly perhaps, yet they hold a gun to the Clown's head.

And could someone please show Gordon where the spell-check button is, geez...

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Dec 18, 2024 12:36 pm

«Some progress»
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 12/18/2024

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“We’re trying to stop the war,” Donald Trump said at a press conference on Monday. The end of the election cycle has not allowed the president-elect to outline his plans for how he intends to stop a war that he was unable to end when it was much simpler, but it has not eliminated his desire to do so or his confidence in being able to do so. “People are killing each other there at levels that nobody has ever seen,” he added in his usual tone of hyperbole that hides a profound lack of knowledge of the conflict that he intends to resolve quickly and that he considers “a tough, unpleasant one.” “These are very flat fields, the only thing that stops a bullet is a body,” he added in reference to the topography in an attempt to show knowledge of the reality of war. “And the number of soldiers that are being killed on both sides is astronomical,” he said with the most realistic statement of all those he has made so far.

The United Nations has updated its count of civilian deaths and injuries to 12,340 people, 667 of them children, figures that pale in comparison to those caused by Israel in Gaza in the last 14 months, but to which an unknown but tremendously high number of soldiers must be added. The latest count by UALosses has identified 66,622 dead Ukrainian soldiers and Mediazona adds 82,050 by Russia (among which are numerous Ukrainian citizens who enlisted in the Donbass militias). Only with the confirmed figures, which are likely to be underestimated, since they do not include missing bodies, casualties that the parties try to hide or civilians who have died, disappeared or buried without prior approval by the authorities, the casualty figures are in the hundreds of thousands, a sufficient argument to consider a policy that seeks to end the bloodshed necessary.

Always ready to boast of his successes, real or imagined, Donald Trump also claimed to have made “some progress” in his task of achieving a ceasefire and the start of negotiations in search of a resolution to the conflict. Just as when asked about his plan to achieve his objectives, the future president did not specify how he had achieved this progress or in what area it could be found, possibly because the current reality does not offer any reason for optimism. Last week, Ukraine rejected out of hand the proposal for a Christmas ceasefire and a massive exchange of prisoners proposed by Viktor Orbán, still the rotating president of the European Union. In its usual habit of varying its discourse, Ukraine was first annoyed by the proposal and later claimed that the Hungarian president had not presented any. Orbán made the proposal through telephone conversations with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky after his most recent meeting with Donald Trump (although it was never clear whether he was acting in an individual capacity or as an emissary of the future president of the United States). “Ukraine needs direct relations with the United States,” Zelensky said yesterday, adding that kyiv does not need “countries like Hungary.” After clarifying that he was not referring to the population but to its leaders, he insisted on his rejection of people “like Prime Minister Orban, who wants to, you know, play both sides. It won’t work. I won’t let him in. Nor people like him. We need direct relations with the United States. We are a strong country, we proved it on the battlefield during all of Putin’s aggressions. Does anyone in Europe have such an example? Nobody. Does Orbán have such an army? No. How is he going to put pressure on Putin? How is he going to put pressure on Putin? It’s a joke.” Although Ukraine’s strength is currently measured in subsidies from the United States and the European Union, that reality does not force Zelensky to treat with a minimum of respect the leaders of the countries that are supporting the State so that it can continue fighting.

Ukraine’s rejection of Orbán’s attempt to score a point and get a pat on the back from his American friend extends to other types of negotiations as well. Kiev’s refusal is not due to considering a temporary ceasefire a propaganda or absurd initiative, but to the conditions in which it finds itself at the front. “What kind of negotiations?” Podolyak asked yesterday. “On international law, please. On the inviolability of territories, please. On security guarantees, for example, the collective security architecture of Ukraine as a member of the Alliance, please,” he said, answering himself and making clear what points Kiev is willing to negotiate. The conditions of the war, the situation at the front and the balance of forces make such negotiations unrealistic, so his superior in the President’s Office added that “real negotiations on a lasting peace will only begin when the enemy has no resources left to continue the war, so we have an incredibly big job ahead of us.” As President Zelensky stated when presenting his resilience plan , “Ukraine may have to outlive someone in Moscow to achieve all the goals.”

As long as it has funding from its partners and ammunition to continue fighting, Ukraine will be in no hurry to negotiate with Russia on anything other than politics and conflict resolution. The only area where there seems to be any progress is in the negotiation for a large prisoner exchange, a process that both kyiv and Moscow have confirmed, although this should not be misleading. Such processes have been the norm since the outbreak of war in 2014 and have continued even in the worst moments of the fighting. In 2019, the agreement for a large Christmas exchange quickly raised false hopes that Russia and Ukraine would succeed in implementing the Minsk agreements despite Zelensky having notified Merkel and Macron at the Paris summit of his intention to breach them.

While European leaders feel they must exaggerate the threat to prevent a ceasefire and to enforce the war regime in order to justify increased military spending, and Donald Trump lives off progress that exists only in his imagination, steps are being taken on the ground that make any dialogue between the parties even more difficult. Just days after the head of the Elenovka prison (in the DPR, where the attack that claimed the lives of dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war, mainly members of Azov, took place) was killed by a car bomb, the scientist Mikhail Sikhatsky, an expert in missile development, was shot dead in Moscow. These murders can be framed within the programme of targeted killings created by the two Ukrainian intelligence services - the SBU or civil intelligence and the GUR or military intelligence - initially admitted by Valentin Nalyvaichenko in an interview given to The Economist in September 2022 and an open secret since the executions of Givi, Motorola or Alexander Zakharchenko and the long stream of car bombs against prosecutors and political officials in the People's Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. Until then, those cases in which Ukraine's participation was perfectly visible were defined in Kiev as acts of "internal struggles" or "the hand of Moscow" was pointed out.

Yesterday, the SBU, which claimed responsibility for the attack in the same way as non-state groups that use the bomb method for political violence , achieved the greatest success of its programme of summary executions. With a bomb installed in the battery of an electric scooter outside his house, Ukraine murdered General Igor Kirilov and his assistant. Kirilov had been the head of Russia's radiological, chemical and biological defence since 2017 and one of the well-known faces of the Russian Federation's high command. The general gained international media presence due to the chemical attacks in Syria and the Skripal affair, the use of chemical weapons on British territory against a former Russian spy. Kirilov was also the spokesman for Russia's favourite conspiracy theory, that of American biological laboratories in Ukraine. Hours before his murder, Kirilov was accused by Ukraine of having used chemical weapons in the Russo-Ukrainian war - Kiev is not shy of inventing conspiracies either.

"Kirillov was a war criminal and a completely legitimate target, as he gave orders to use banned chemical weapons against the Ukrainian army," a source in the SBU told AFP , aware of his total impunity and the fact that there is no longer any need to hide such actions, justified by his allies without the need to give any explanation.

Yesterday's attack is yet another act of confirmation that Trump is wrong in his understanding that Russia and Ukraine are tired of killing each other , and it is a reminder that Kiev has decided, as Ukrainian officials have openly stated, to take justice into its own hands by making those it considers guilty pay with their lives, without the need for a trial. The execution of Kirilov, an action similar to those carried out by the Israeli Mossad, an example to follow for Ukraine, and which may have pleased some of Kiev's allies, cannot be considered an attempt to derail possible negotiations before they begin. It is not an isolated act, but the greatest success in an extensive programme of summary executions that has spanned the last decade and which is likely to continue, perhaps even beyond peace.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/12/18/algun-progreso/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Key points from the statements by Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov:

- The Russian Federation will respond to the US escalation based on security threat assessments; the Oreshnik test has already been conducted in response;

- A river flotilla and two formations were created as part of the Navy in 2024;

- More than 30 countries supply military products to Ukraine, the largest number being the United States, Great Britain, Germany, France and Denmark;

- Total foreign financial assistance to Ukraine amounted to more than $350 billion, of which $170 billion was for military needs;

- More than 165 thousand Ukrainian military personnel have been trained according to NATO standards;

- The "nuclear deterrence threshold" is not defined by Russia's international obligations and is determined by the need to neutralize threats;

- Deliveries of the first modernized Tu-160M ​​missile carriers to the strategic aviation nuclear forces started in 2024;

- The share of modern weapons in the strategic nuclear forces is 95%;

- NATO provocatively deployed a launcher from a 2,400 km-range missile system in Denmark;

- NATO has redeployed significant contingents, including American troops, to the Russian border as part of the Steadfast Defender military exercises;

- The United States intends to create the most destructive weapons, for which it withdrew from international arms control agreements;

- The formation of the first regiment equipped with the S-500 air defense system, capable of solving strategic missile defense tasks, is nearing completion

- One new unit of the Russian Aerospace Forces was formed in 2024.

- Since the beginning of the special operation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost about 1 million people killed and wounded, about 20 thousand tanks and armored vehicles.

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 42 thousand people, over 1,800 tanks and armored vehicles in the Kursk border area.
The advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region has been stopped, attempts by Ukrainian Armed Forces groups and mercenaries to break through deep into Russia have been suppressed.

- The rearmament of the ground grouping of strategic nuclear forces has been fully completed.

- All tasks set for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation by the country's leadership in 2024.

- In 2025, the main training event for the Russian Armed Forces will be the joint strategic exercises "Zapad-2025" with Belarus.

- The Russian Armed Forces have the initiative and are advancing along the entire front, despite the colossal assistance from the West to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He noted that this year more than 190 settlements have been liberated, about 4.5 thousand square kilometers of territory have come under control.
***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of December 18, 2024 ) Main :

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 350 people in one day as a result of the actions of the "South" group;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 540 servicemen in one day in the area of ​​responsibility of the "West" group;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost about 120 fighters as a result of the actions of the "North" and "Dnepr" groups;

- Air defense systems shot down 43 unmanned aerial vehicles and a HIMARS projectile in one day;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 440 servicemen in the area of ​​the "Center" group in one day;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 160 people and a Snatch vehicle as a result of the actions of the "East" group.

- The Russian Armed Forces destroyed military airfields of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and workshops for assembling unmanned aerial vehicles.

▫️ Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance into the depth of the enemy's defense, defeated the formations of two mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Velyka Novosyolka, Zelenoye Pole, Razliv, Bogatyr and Vremevka of the Donetsk People's Republic. They repelled the enemy's counterattack.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 160 servicemen, a British-made "Snatch" armored combat vehicle , 152-mm "Akatsiya" and 122-mm "Gvozdika" self-propelled artillery units , as well as a 152-mm D-20 gun .

▫️ Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of the mechanized, mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Antonovka, Sadovoe in the Kherson region, Nesteryanka and Kamenskoye in the Zaporizhia region. They repelled two attacks by enemy formations.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 70 servicemen, two vehicles, two 152-mm D-20 guns and a 122-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Gvozdika" .

▫️Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted damage on the infrastructure of military airfields, workshops for the assembly of unmanned aerial vehicles and their storage sites, concentrations of manpower and military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 139 districts .

▫️ Air defense systems shot down a US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system and 43 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

▫️ In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed : 650 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 37,910 unmanned aerial vehicles, 590 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,834 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,501 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles, 19,803 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 29,294 units of special military vehicles.

***

Colonelcassad
The perpetrator of the terrorist attack that killed General Kirillov has been detained, the FSB reported.

The bomber is a citizen of Uzbekistan, he said that he was recruited by Ukrainian special services .
163.3Kviews
Boris Rozhin
,
01:39

Colonelcassad
Who would have thought otherwise, although initially there was information that these are the ones who are allowed into Sheremetyevo.

Our information about how everything happened was confirmed:

- For surveillance, the bomber rented a car sharing car, installed a Wi-Fi camera in it, the footage from which was broadcast to the organizers of the terrorist attack in Dnepropetrovsk.

- After receiving a video signal about the officers leaving the entrance, the IED was remotely activated by the detainee.

- He was promised a reward of $ 100 thousand and travel to the EU.

- The perpetrator of the terrorist attack, as a result of which General Kirillov died, was detained in the village of Chernoye, Balashikha district of the Moscow region.

@rusich_army

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

SITREP 12/16/24: Negotiations Talk Curdles as Ukraine Loses More Territory

Simplicius
Dec 16, 2024

<snip>

Now as we get closer and closer to Trump’s term, Ukraine scrambles for any propaganda edge possible. There are now even rumors that Zelensky plans to launch another ‘Christmas offensive’ into some remote part of the Russian border—perhaps Bryansk, or elsewhere in Belgorod region. There are ‘claims’ of Ukrainian buildups with photos of a new “tactical sign” on vehicles.

Image

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This is not the first time that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have displayed a new tactical sign - a white square - in the border area of the Kursk region. Similar signs began to appear about 10 days ago.

In this regard, rumors that have arisen recently about an allegedly new planned Ukrainian offensive in the Russian border region - again in Kursk, then either in Bryansk or Belgorod regions - are further fueled.

It is worth remembering that before the invasion of the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out major information operations designed to mislead the Russian command about their true intentions, so it is not yet worth drawing far-reaching conclusions based on the emerging bits of data.


The problem is these are already being hit, as can be seen above—so it’s questionable if they’re being saved for some new operation. Secondly, the new 150-series reserve brigades Zelensky was putting together for future operations have been marred with problems. A new report highlighted how 1000 men have already deserted the 155th of this series, not to mention confirming that the brigades have already been utilized merely to fill gaps in critical areas of the Donbass theater.

That said, Ukrainian channels continue to spread rumors that the next offensive will even reach Moscow:

While the Russians think they're winning, we're preparing an incredibly powerful strike force. Our reconnaissance battles in Belgorod and Kursk, as a result of which we killed a lot of orcs and captured a lot of territory, will seem to everyone just a warm-up. We will reach Kursk city this time judging by the combat power and the quantity and quality of tanks, drones and aircraft. It will be very, very painful and bitter for Russia. They will suck.

Moscow will be possible to be reached. I won't give you a timeframe so as not to spoil the surprise. But orders have already been given.

👉 Ukrainian Post


A more realistic and fact-based assessment was given by a top Russian channel:

The Archangel of Special Forces writes about the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the offensive in the Kursk and Belgorod directions.

In the city of Shostka, Sumy region, recently had to arrive reinforcements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - about 13 thousand people. However, the group disappeared halfway to Shostka and its traces are lost in the region. Also, throughout November and December, the media show footage of the transfer of echelons with equipment from NATO countries: "Bradley", armored cars from Sweden," Strikers","Leopards". Where this equipment settles is similarly unknown. In Poland and Romania, from 24 to 34 F-16 aircraft have been accumulated and are already flying from there to intercept our cruise missiles. They are clearly being saved for a mass debut.
Indirectly, judging by the small consumption of ATACMS, Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles that attacked the Kursk region and Taganrog, these missiles accumulate. Given all this, as well as frosts closer to the end of the month and freezing of the soil, the APU strike is expected in the middle of winter.


Russia on the other hand is also rumored to be building up new strike forces in the Zaporozhye direction:

Image

⚡️Ukrainian sources report that the Russian army is moving forces, including tanks and other armored vehicles, from the Crimean peninsula to the Zaporizhia region in preparation for a new offensive that is planned to begin in the near future.

Not to mention the Gauleiter of Zaporozhye region announcing a pause of an underground school construction near Orekhov and Gulyai-pole on the Zapo line due to threat of a new Russian offensive.

Two new NYT articles predict the next few months:

Image
https://archive.ph/aXZso

The first one claims the war will definitely end in 2025, no matter who was going to be elected president. This is because both sides are allegedly ‘running out of troops’. However, while no evidence is given for the Russian claim, the author reveals that intelligence agencies predict it is Ukraine that will “run out of soldiers soon”:

That’s bad news for Ukraine. Russian forces are advancing in the east. They’ve also reclaimed some of the Russian territory that Ukraine captured this past summer. Ukraine still has weapons, but its troops are spread thin. Intelligence agencies think it will run out of soldiers soon.

In fact, interestingly, Putin had just announced in a new speech that Russia still gets 1,000 daily military signups: (Video at link.)

Belousov confirmed this by stating the total number for 2024 enlistments is 427,000. Divided into 12 months, this totals ~35,600 monthly enlistments:

▪️In 2024, Russian troops liberated almost 4.5 thousand square kilometers of territory occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

▪️An integrated information environment for decision-making at the tactical level will be created.

▪️Over 427 thousand people have entered service under contract since the beginning of 2024.

▪️Compared to 2022, the Russian military receives 7 times more tanks, 3 times more infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, and 23 times more drones.

▪️Large bases should be replaced by a layered network of warehouses.

▪️It is necessary to ensure the protection of arsenals and fuel bases within the range of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' weapons.

▪️A new branch of the armed forces should be formed in 2025- the Unmanned Systems Troops.

Note above he also mentioned a new initiative for Russia to decentralize its bases within range of NATO weaponry like ATACMS, converting everything into a vast network of forward-deployed warehouses and ammo dumps.

Here he states this effort has already begun, and in the future a total reconceptualization of how logistics and storage are distributed on the front will take place: (Video at link.)

The next similarly titled article spins similar fairytales about Russian losses only to dampen the blow of their main thesis, which is that Ukraine has a severe soldier shortage and is on its way to losing the conflict:

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https://archive.ph/jf23O

The article essentially finds no solution, concluding that only the US as military guarantor of Ukraine’s terms would allow Ukraine to walk away with some semblance of security—but that they admit is not likely. Trump seeks to shift militarily to Asia, with Ukraine being left as Europe’s problem—a Europe too politically divided to stand any chance of guaranteeing or securing anything.

In short: the entire Western commentariat is out of ideas, resigned to repeating the same tired tropes about claimed Russian losses and high cabbage prices sure to ‘devastate’ the Russian economy any minute now.

The fact is, Russia is capturing more and more territory and Ukraine’s strikes on Russian territory are becoming increasingly ineffective. Last week another massive drone attack was launched at the Crimean Kerch Bridge, now memory-holed and hardly drawing even a passing headline because Russian defenses easily thwarted all hostile objects.

As an aside, the one interesting factor was Ukraine’s continued attempts to innovate and change up its attacks. This time the naval drones were armed with machine guns capable of targeting Russian response helicopters: (Video at link.)

Ukraine’s attacks are simply falling short and not doing any long lasting damage anywhere because Russia is adapting too quickly to everything. Only the odd refinery still gets occasionally hit, filling the sky with headline-grabbing black plumes. But the oil storage tank fires are generally quickly put out and repaired without a second thought.

A Foreign Policy article again demonstrates that Ukraine has no agency when it comes to its masters:

Image
https://archive.ph/uq1Sp

The author argues for the US to negotiate with Russia on Ukraine’s behalf, lest Zelensky and co. prematurely set fire to the negotiations with unrealistic demands.

It further admits both sides have issues that are non-starters and the negotiations are unlikely to work anyway. For Russia, the stationing of foreign ‘peacekeeping troops’ is just as bad or worse than Ukraine joining NATO. And for Ukraine, the US forcing the AFU to abandon currently held territory in Zaporozhye, Kherson, etc., which Russia demands as part of its terms will be an impossible ask—something I myself have repeated many times.

It further points out that European countries would only station troops if the US guaranteed to back them up militarily should those troops be attacked by Russia—a scenario the author finds unlikely given Trump’s strong signals opposing such possibilities.

Image

However, everything that I have heard from Russians tells me that this is just as unacceptable to Moscow as NATO membership itself and would therefore make agreement impossible. Moreover, European countries would agree to send their troops only if they had an ironclad guarantee from Washington that the United States would intervene if they were attacked. This, in effect, punts the decision back to Washington—not Kyiv, and not Brussels, Warsaw or Paris.

A new Reuters piece confirms that Poland has outright rejected Macron’s overtures to jointly station peacekeeping troops anyway:

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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/tu ... 024-12-12/

As such, one can clearly see the ‘negotiations’ are a total nonstarter. Other global figures agree:

Image

(Much more at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... lk-curdles

*******

Russia - Agree To Be Provoked Or Fall For Lucy's Football?

Early this morning assassins from the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service killed Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the commander of the Russian Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces, in Moscow:

Lieutenant-General Igor Kirillov, commander of the nuclear, biological and chemical forces of the Russian army, died in a blast as he was heading out of a residential block in Moscow, the Russian Investigative Committee said in a statement.
An explosive device was hidden in an electric scooter parked nearby. Kirillov’s aide also died in the attack, the investigative committee said, announcing a criminal investigation. Video footage obtained by POLITICO corroborates that version of events

Kirillov lived in a normal apartment block. His aide was picking him up for work. They were observed and someone who was watching (and filming) them pulled the trigger.

Kirillov was well known. He gave several public presentations about secret U.S. bio-warfare experiments in Ukraine:

Writing on Kirillov’s passing, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said that throughout his career he had repeatedly exposed the crimes of the “Anglo-Americans” such as “NATO provocations with chemical weapons in Syria, Britain’s manipulations with prohibited chemical substances and provocations in Salisbury and Amesbury, the deadly activities of American biolabs in Ukraine, and much more.”
“He worked fearlessly. He did not hide behind people’s backs,” Zakharova wrote.


This is of course a provocation designed by Ukraine to make peace talks with Russia, as president-elect Donald Trump presumably favors, less possible.

The question for Russia is now how to react to it.

Should it hit back with its whole might and destroy the 'decision making centers' in Kiev who are responsible for this incident? (Note: An accurate definition of 'decision centers' would include the embassies of the U.S. and Great Britain in Kiev.)

Or should it hold back and hope that negotiations about Ukraine with Donald Trump will actually achieve some positive, if temporary, results?

It is a difficult question.

The general configuration of the incoming Trump administration is hawkish.

It is thus highly unlikely, James George Jatras writes, that any agreement which could be seen as positive for Russia will be worth the paper it is written on:

[T]he Russians have made it clear that they will accept no temporary truces, no ceasefires, no more promises made to be broken like piecrusts, no pauses as cynical tricks to get the Russians to forgo their current and growing military advantage. (...) No, they insist, there must be either a genuine, definitive, binding settlement that ensures a lasting peace based on mutual security, or Russian forces will press on until their objectives – notably “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine – are achieved militarily. Such an outcome would mean at least replacement of the current regime in Kiev and, more likely, the end of Ukraine’s statehood.
For the West, this would constitute a total debacle of Afghanistan-like proportions effectively signaling the end of US hegemony in Europe, the [Great American Empire’s] crown jewel. What can Trump offer the Russians to avoid that?
...
[T]he real question for the Trump Administration becomes a political one of how much wiggle room there is in the Russians’ stated determination not to rely on more promises of the sort that have been repeatedly broken in the past. Put another way: if Trump-Lucy wants to avoid utter defeat in the European theater of the worldwide confrontation between the GAE and BRICS-Eurasia, so he can get on to mixing it up with Iran and China, can he dupe Putin-Charlie Brown into taking another run at the football?

I think he at least has a good shot at it.


Jatras lists several points that the U.S. could temporarily concede to Russia only to later pull the proverbial football on each of those items.

Russia would of course expect this. But the opening question - to fall for the provocation or to find an alternative way - can also be asked within a larger context.

In 2019 RAND, the Defense Department's think-tank, published the main policy paper that led to the war in Ukraine.

Extending Russia - Competing from Advantageous Ground

Its summary says:

This report examines a range of possible means to extend Russia. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy recognized, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to define areas where the United States can compete to its own advantage. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data from Western and Russian sources, this report examines Russia's economic, political, and military vulnerabilities and anxieties. It then analyzes potential policy options to exploit them — ideologically, economically, geopolitically, and militarily (including air and space, maritime, land, and multidomain options). After describing each measure, this report assesses the associated benefits, costs, and risks, as well as the likelihood that measure could be successfully implemented and actually extend Russia. Most of the steps covered in this report are in some sense escalatory, and most would likely prompt some Russian counter-escalation.

Arming Ukraine, and pushing it into provoking a Russian intervention, was seen as the most 'profitable' way to weaken the Russian Federation.

By starting the Special Military Operation in Ukraine Russia had actually fallen for the provocation RAND had planned for it. For Russia there was, at that moment, no alternative.

U.S. anti-Russia hawks will try their best to keep Russia bogged down in Ukraine.

But others see the growing danger that a prolonged conflict creates for the West. The economic damage it has caused is already substantial. It is also diverting U.S. capacities from countering China.

Trump's peace allures may thereby become a real alternative for Russia to climb out of the RAND trap.

It is either all in, take Kiev and defeat Ukraine as a state, or take the negotiation route, concede on some issues and agree to an imperfect solution which may (or more likely not) turn out to be permanent.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin, and the circles around him, will have the ponder these difficult questions.

Posted by b on December 17, 2024 at 16:19 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/12/r ... .html#more

I don't think taking Kiev would be a good idea. Even if a new government asked the Russians to 'maintain order' there's gonna be a bunch of die-hard Nazis causing as much trouble as possible. Let the Ukes sort them out(at least to some degree) first.

******

Hungary Blocks EU Funding for Arms Shipments to Ukraine

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Hungarian FM Peter Szijjarto. @marianpy1


December 17, 2024 Hour: 10:13 am

FM Szijjarto also voiced his disapproval of the proposed relocation of an EU coordination unit to Kyiv.

On Monday, Hungarian Foreign and Trade Minister Peter Szijjarto announced that his country had once again vetoed the European Union’s (EU) allocation of 6.5 billion euros (US$6.83 billion) to member states supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Speaking after a meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council, Szijjarto confirmed on his Facebook page that he had blocked disbursement of the funds from the European Peace Facility, citing Hungary’s long-standing opposition to mandatory contributions of arms shipments.

“Hungary has not supplied weapons before, has not contributed to any arms shipments,” Szijjarto said. He stressed that while Hungary would not interfere with member states funding such initiatives voluntarily, it would not support making these contributions compulsory.

Szijjarto also voiced his disapproval of the proposed relocation of an EU coordination unit to Kyiv and deploy advisors for security sector reforms in Ukraine. He called these measures “highly dangerous and escalating the conflict,” highlighting the associated risks of personnel deployment within an EU framework.

😳🇭🇺🇺🇦 "Ukraine is a strong country, but it should not be a member of the EU and NATO", – Orban

❗️In his opinion, Ukraine will return to the role of a buffer state with guarantees secured by USA and Russia. pic.twitter.com/2chb7ihA3Q

— MAKS 24 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) July 27, 2024


Moreover, the Hungarian minister rejected proposals to sanction Russia’s UN ambassador and its Olympic Committee, stating, “Mixing sports with geopolitics is unacceptable.”

Describing Brussels’ approach as a “pro-war strategy” that ignored a “new reality” shaped by recent Russian battlefield gains and the reelection of U.S. President Donald Trump, the minister expressed broader criticism of EU policies.

Szijjarto said that the council’s rejection of his government’s recent Christmas ceasefire proposal was disappointing. “Not only was there no support for a ceasefire that could save lives, but many argued against it,” he remarked. He stressed that halting the fighting could achieve what armaments valued at tens or hundreds of billions of euros have failed to accomplish: preventing further Russian advances.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/hungary- ... o-ukraine/

******

About the murder of Igor Kirillov
December 17, 19:15

Image

About the murder of Igor Kirillov

In Moscow, as a result of a terrorist attack on Ryazansky Prospekt, the head of the NBC protection troops, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, was killed. As a result of the explosion, Kirillov and his assistant died on the spot, the entrance to the building was significantly damaged.

It is important to note that Kirillov was known as the person whose name is associated with the systematic process of exposing American biolabs ( https://t.me/rt_russian/186417 ) in Ukraine. This topic was raised back in the mid-2010s, and after the start of the SVO, these facts were revealed as documents and materials came into the possession of Russian troops, which not only confirmed the previously made conclusions, but also revealed an even more serious scale of Western countries' involvement in the deployment of a network of biolabs in Ukraine.

Among the revealed facts ( https://t.me/rt_russian/215634 ) voiced by Kirillov were experiments on people (both civilians and military), experiments ( https://t.me/rt_russian/154738 ) with dangerous pathogens, collection of biomaterials necessary for research on the creation of targeted bioweapons, etc.

The materials of the work that Kirillov presented to the general public were also released at the international level, including at the UN. The same China, relying on these materials, demanded the closure of American biolabs located in Ukraine and a number of other countries.

Ultimately, as a result of Kirillov's work, Victoria Nuland was forced to admit ( https://t.me/rt_russian/98181 ) the presence of a network of biolabs in Ukraine, although she tried to evade questions about the military purpose of these facilities.

So Kirillov is, of course, not just “another general”, but a rather significant figure, whose activities gave our foreign policy serious arguments perceived at the international level.

Of course, after the terrorist attack, several versions will be considered, including the Ukrainian trace. But it cannot be ruled out that the Ukrainian trace here may only be a cover for the actions of Western intelligence agencies, which could have worked with the hands of their Ukrainian proxies. The “suspicion” that the SBU voiced to Kirillov the day before may also be just a screen, a cover for the activity of Western intelligence agencies.

One way or another, all the circumstances of the incident will have to be established by the investigation. Well, the question of retaliatory measures is already the prerogative of the military-political leadership of the country.

(c) specially for RT

https://t.me/c/1686844692/7007 - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9557538.html

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