Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Jan 07, 2025 11:58 am

Objectives, hierarchies and priorities
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 07/01/2025

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Since coming to power in 2019, Zelensky and his team, which come from the world of communication, interpretation and entertainment, have made public relations one of their strongest pillars. The campaign team convinced a significant part of society, especially in Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine, that the new president would moderate nationalist rhetoric, seek a compromise with Russia to end the war in Donbass and limit the effects of patriotic laws that sought to progressively remove the Russian language from the public sphere. Without any interest in moving in that direction, Zelensky's policy has always been a continuation of his predecessor and he even toughened the application of laws such as the one on the use of the language long before the Russian invasion. In the weeks before the Russian attack, Zelensky was able to convince his population that there was not going to be a war. As he admitted months later, this white lie was necessary to avoid an exodus that would destroy the economy and facilitate the Russian advance on abandoned cities. That year, he easily convinced the Russian delegation that he was negotiating in good faith and that an agreement had been reached in Istanbul. Now, the president does not need to address his own population or the Russian enemy, but rather his allies. “Meaningful answers to difficult questions. The Ukrainian vision of a just peace, which is important for all allied countries to know,” wrote the president’s official social media account yesterday with a message that makes it clear that the most important negotiation is not with Russia but with Ukraine’s friends.

“I have no respect for the Russian leader or the Russian people. And I don’t want to give Putin a chance to once again declare that we are all one people and speak the same language,” Zelensky said in his interview with tech podcaster and MIT engineer Lex Fridman, who had requested to conduct the interview in Russian, the native language of both. Despite the obvious communication advantages with the interviewer, who was born in the Tajik SSR and is descended from Jews from the Kharkiv region, the interview was conducted in Ukrainian, with simultaneous translation, and in English. Zelensky’s job now is to praise Donald Trump, attract his attention and make the Ukrainian cause his own. That's why he has worked to appear on Fox News , meet with Donald Trump at every opportunity and conduct a three-hour interview with Fridman, a well-known publicist linked to the US technology sector and on whose programme he has interviewed, for example, the current right-hand man of the president-elect, Elon Musk, possibly the most influential person in the Trumpist circle at the moment.

Zelensky wanted to speak in terms that the future president would understand and find flattering. Only in this way can we understand that the president of Ukraine, whose pensions and salaries depend on the European Union, the main economic partner ahead of the United States, said that “When I talk about something with Donald Trump – whether we meet in person or simply have a call – all European leaders always ask ‘how was it? ’ This shows Donald Trump’s influence and this has never happened before with an American president.” It is clear that the United States is the most powerful country and decisions about the future of the war have depended and will always depend on the opinion of Washington, so it is logical that European countries show interest in knowing the position of the White House at all times. The fact that the Ukrainian president has proposed a specific communication to find out the state of the matter indirectly through Zelensky – if these calls take place in reality and not in fiction – does not show Trump’s strength, but the weakness and subordination of European countries. Throughout the interview with Fridman, this is one of the aspects that most clearly emerges in Volodymyr Zelensky's speech, carefully prepared to praise the figure of the future tenant of the White House at the expense of the European allies, whose role is presented as important, but secondary.

According to data provided by the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, the European Union has provided 38.9% of the more than $115 billion in Western aid since February 2022, compared with 27.1% for the United States. And yet, the Ukrainian president continues to insist that Europe is not enough and that neither military supplies nor security guarantees would be sufficient in the absence of the indispensable United States. “Trump and I will go first, and Europe will support the Ukrainian position,” the Ukrainian president said. The European Union has only to follow orders.

“Trump and I will reach an agreement and he will offer strong security guarantees together with Europe, and then we can talk to the Russians,” Zelensky insisted. The order of events is thus established: negotiation and agreement with the United States, ratification by the European Union and presentation of the plan to Russia. The hierarchy is clear and especially marked in Zelensky’s narrative also in the parts of the interview in which he refers to a possible negotiation, an aspect to which the Ukrainian president refers with increasing certainty, although this should not be confused with a lowering of kyiv’s aspirations.

“Zelensky would agree to give up the territories occupied by Russia if the rest of Ukraine joins NATO,” was the headline of an article in Europa Press yesterday , which did not explain that this would not be a renunciation, but rather the temporary acceptance of de facto Russian control over these territories, which would remain de jure Ukrainian, with the only difference being that “NATO would not be able to act in them.” This is a return to the Ermak-Rasmussen plan, which proposed the immediate entry of Ukraine into the Alliance in its current composition, pending the recovery of territorial integrity and always under the threat that any Russian attack that was considered excessive could activate NATO’s collective defence clause.

European security guarantees would not be enough for Zelensky, and neither is the formal invitation to join NATO, which makes it absolutely impossible for Russia to sign such an agreement. Ukraine wants more and insisting that it does not want “to happen like with Biden”, who according to the Ukrainian president did not deliver to kyiv the necessary weapons before the Russian invasion, its government is now asking for a large arms package to prevent a future aggression. Curiously, just two days ago, the US Secretary of State declared exactly the opposite of what Zelensky now claims. “We made sure long before the Russian aggression took place, starting in September and again in December, that we quietly sent a lot of weapons to Ukraine to make sure they had on hand what they needed to defend themselves, things like Stingers, Javelins, which were essential to prevent Russia from taking kyiv,” said Blinken, contradicting the current speech of the Ukrainian president, more concerned with praising who will be the new president than thanking the efforts of the current one. War requires weapons and speed, and Zelensky wants not only a formal invitation to join the Atlantic Alliance but a large arms package, the composition of which he insists on not specifying, although it is clear that it involves long-range missiles. This measure “depends primarily on the will of the United States,” he said, later specifying that “the EU would give us one part and the United States the other. There must be unity for this package.” In fact, there must be financing, which will have to come from grants or loans from the United States and the European Union or, as Zelensky proposes, from the delivery of the 300 billion dollars in Russian public and private assets seized by Western countries, for which Ukraine would also need the support of Washington and, above all, Brussels. Unsurprisingly, Ukraine says it would use this financing to acquire American weapons, thus actively supporting Kiev’s America First policy of Donald Trump.

Weapons are good business, a way to improve the economy and a tool for war or peace by force . “If the ceasefire works, no one will use these weapons,” he insisted in a statement that must be read in light of the precedent of the use of bombings against Donbass as a tool of pressure and artificial prolongation of the war in Donbass. Minsk has proven for seven years that a ceasefire without an accompanying political agreement is always unviable. In fact, many of Zelensky’s proposals for a possible ceasefire and a fair peace – fair only for the part of the population that Ukraine considers loyal – are so, hence Ukraine openly rejects a three-way negotiation, that is, a real negotiation, and continues to seek ways to pressure Russia so that it has no choice but to accept the Ukrainian diktat .

To do this, Zelensky is counting on Donald Trump. “I think that President Trump not only has the will, he has all these possibilities, and it is not just talk. I really count on him, and I think that our people really count on him, so they have enough power to put pressure on him, to put pressure on Putin,” said the Ukrainian president. Zelensky, who always tries to come up with creative ideas, proposed in his interview, for example, expelling Russia from the global energy market and blocking its sales of liquefied natural gas and oil, an idea that is impossible to implement and has a destructive capacity and destabilisation of the sector worldwide, which does not seem to concern the Ukrainian president, who prefers to focus on the benefit it would bring to the United States. “Imagine not having Russia in the energy market,” Zelensky said in the interview. “You just have to stop it,” he insists, referring to sanctions that would expel Russian energy from the global market. The consequences can only be positive. “Nothing happens. There is American oil, American gas is fine. Why not? “And it’s cheaper,” he falsely insists, without, of course, mentioning the carbon footprint of replacing a nearby gas with a distant one. “So it will be cheaper for everyone and the money will go to the United States,” he concludes. The priorities are clear and will undoubtedly impress Donald Trump.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/01/07/objet ... ioridades/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
⚡️ Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of January 7, 2025)

— Units of the North force group in the Kharkov direction inflicted losses on formations of the mechanized, airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Oreshanka, Granov and Veterinarnoye in the Kharkov region.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 65 servicemen, two vehicles, two 152 mm D-20 guns and two 122 mm D-30 howitzers.

— Units of the West force group improved the situation along the forward edge. Defeat was inflicted on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized and assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Zeleny Gai, Petrovpavlovka in the Kharkov region and Novoyegorovka in the Luhansk People's Republic. Two counterattacks of assault groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were repelled.

The enemy lost up to 580 servicemen, two infantry fighting vehicles, 12 cars, an Iveco armored fighting vehicle and an Italian-made 105 mm Melara Mod 56 howitzer, a German-made 155 mm Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled artillery mount, a Gvozdika 122 mm self-propelled artillery mount, three 122 mm D-30 howitzers, as well as an M113 armored personnel carrier, two M777 155 mm howitzers, two M198 155 mm howitzers and an M119 105 mm gun made in the USA.

An Israeli-made RADA RPS-42 counter-battery warfare station, four Khortitsa, Bukovel-AD and Anklav electronic warfare stations, and an ammunition depot were destroyed.

— Units of the Southern group of forces have taken up more advantageous lines and positions. Formations of the mechanized, motorized infantry and two airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Predtechino, Dachnoye and Belogorovka of the Donetsk People's Republic. Two counterattacks of the enemy assault groups were repelled.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 245 servicemen, a tank, an infantry fighting vehicle, two pickups, two 122 mm self-propelled artillery units "Gvozdika", a 122 mm howitzer D-30 and two 105 mm guns M119 made in the USA.
Three ammunition depots were destroyed.

— Units of the Center group of forces improved their tactical position. The manpower and equipment of four mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, three territorial defense brigades, two national guard brigades and a brigade of the national police of Ukraine were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Druzhba, Panteleimonivka, Mirolyubovka, Shcherbinivka, Dzerzhinsk, Vozdvizhenka, Shevchenko, Alexandropol, Dyleevka and Volkovo of the Donetsk People's Republic. 12 counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled.

The enemy lost up to 510 servicemen, four tanks, including two Leopards made in Germany, three infantry fighting vehicles, two M113 armored personnel carriers made in the USA, five other armored combat vehicles, nine cars, three 152 mm D-20 guns, a 122 mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery unit, two 122 mm D-30 howitzers and a 105 mm M119 gun made in the USA. An electronic warfare station was destroyed.

— Units of the Vostok group of forces advanced deep into the enemy's defenses. Formations of three mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, two territorial defense brigades and a National Guard brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Neskuchnoye, Velyka Novosyolka, Razliv, Volnoye Pole and Vremevka of the Donetsk People's Republic. Two counterattacks of enemy assault groups were repelled.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 155 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, five cars, a 152 mm self-propelled artillery mount "Akatsiya", a 122 mm self-propelled artillery mount "Gvozdika" and a 122 mm howitzer D-30. An ammunition depot was destroyed.

— Units of the "Dnepr" group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces infantry brigade near the village of Pyatikhatki in the Zaporizhia region.

The enemy lost up to 80 servicemen, six cars and a 122 mm howitzer D-30. The "Bukovel-AD" electronic warfare station and an ammunition depot were destroyed.

***

Colonelcassad
It is reported that the Sudzhan borderland: the Berdin farm and its surroundings have been cleared by fighters from the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Guards "Sever"

. During the clearing carried out by the assault units of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment, the occupiers suffered up to 30 casualties, including 17 - "200", twenty-three Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd separate airborne brigade surrendered.

In total, twenty-seven Ukrainian servicemen laid down their arms during the enemy counterattack that began yesterday.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*******

SITREP 1/5/25: Ukraine Launches Final Bargaining-Chip Offensive in Kursk

Simplicius
Jan 05, 2025

Ukrainian forces launched a new awaited offensive on the Kursk region, which was to be timed with the run up to Trump’s inauguration. The desperate offensive is meant to make sure the dwindling Kursk salient remains at least up until Trump is able to ‘negotiate’ with Putin, so that Zelensky still has Kursk as a “bargaining chip” in those negotiations.

As such, Russian forces have been anticipating a move somewhere in the region for a few weeks now. The only danger is that there is some possibility this opening is still just a diversion for a larger move in another direction, such as Bryansk, toward Belgorod, or even on the Zaporozhye line.

That’s because today’s action saw what’s estimated to be two battalions or so. There are mixed reports about potentially the 95th, 92nd, 22nd, and 82nd brigades participating, as well as the 225th Special Battalion. Other reports claimed 36th and 47th as well, although it’s likely just small elements and detachments of the above, if at all.

Footage of the columns advancing with Russian response fire and drone destruction of the Ukrainian armor: (Video at link.)

The assault column came out of Sudzha toward Berdin in an attempt to expand the bridgehead and keep Russians from collapsing the pocket on the AFU’s Sudzha HQ-stronghold:

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Here’s a video from Akhmat’s “Aida” Battalion operating in Kursk during today’s assault: (Video at link.)

Note that at a certain point the commander says we have four losses and they have four losses—this is an AI mistranslation, he actually said our unit destroyed four AFU units and another neighboring Russian unit destroyed an additional four.

Having anticipated this attack, Russian forces apparently also prepared an attack thrust of their own in other areas of Kursk in order to cut the Ukrainians off or simply catch them off guard. Thus there were reports of a Russian assault from the Malaya Loknaya, Sverlikovo, and Leonidovka directions, though there’s no further information at this time.

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Russian army in Kursk region advances on Malaya Loknya, Sverdlikovo and Leonidovka, - DeepState

The Ukrainian assault did manage to embed troops in and around parts of Berdin, so they did capture a small slice of new territory with the incursion—but for now Russian forces claim they have stranded the AFU troops by destroying their armor and are in the process of eliminating the remaining stragglers.

A day prior to this, Russian forces had several successes including capturing the remainder of Kurakhovo. The flag was geolocated being placed here:
(Video at link.)

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🇺🇦🇷🇺 Elite special forces of the Southern Military District, in particular fighters of the 346th special forces brigade "Grachi", together with units of the 5th separate guards motorized rifle brigade, installed the Russian flag on the extreme western outskirts of the village of Kurakhovo. This operation was another success in the ongoing offensive of Russian troops in this section of Ukrainian territory. Highly professional special forces played a decisive role in capturing an important strategic facility.

Which is here:

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In fact the wider view shows Kurakhove region has been all but cinched up:

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Toretsk has also now been almost entirely captured, with just a small segment to the north left:

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And there were advances in Chasov Yar as well, with much of the city likewise behind Russian forces:

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They’ve also expanded territory around Pokrovsk’s southern and western flanks, with Ukrainian forces said to have constructed fortifications around the city as follows:

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New articles continue coming to terms with Ukraine’s impending defeat, as the West slowly realizes that Trump will not be able to ‘magically’ end the war without giving Russia all of its demands, which is a complete non-starter for Zelensky:

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A new Washington Post article gives an interesting figure:

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It states that Zelensky wanted 500k total troops drafted in 500k but ended up only drafting 200k. The reason that’s interesting is because we now know from several Ukrainian officials that Ukraine is at best breaking even and at worst experiencing a net loss in troop totals per month. Given that 200k were brought in as replacements in 2024, we can only assume this represents the AFU’s losses for the year.

Two weeks ago Belousov announced Ukraine’s total “killed and wounded” casualties for the year 2024 as 560,000. That would put strictly killed at something like 120-180k, which is not far from the 200k conscription figure above. Being charitable, let’s say that 200k is killed and disabled, which would put strictly killed at 100k. That would be 8,333 KIA per month or 277 per day, which is pretty much in the vicinity of where I’ve got AFU’s KIA pegged. I’ve said several articles ago I believe Russian KIA to be anywhere between 100-150 per day, sometimes higher, with Ukrainian being 250-400, give or take. MediaZona seems to roughly agree as their estimated death count for Russian forces was 5,500 for December last I checked, which averages to about 183 per day.

Recall that there are alternative estimates for Ukraine’s losses which are far higher, like this recently published one:

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It claims a total of ~2 million casualties since the start of the war, with 920k of them being dead or disabled.

In fact, from the same WaPo article quoted above, we have the next paragraph:

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Well, judge for yourself.

Taras goes on to remark that the current situation is even worse than February 2022 for Ukraine:

“Let’s be honest, the situation now is worse than at the start of the full-scale invasion,” said 33-year-old Taras, a captain and company commander in the 35th brigade. “What can we negotiate now? We can only nod our heads and agree to their demands, and what they will demand is obviously going to be something that we don’t like.”

They do make an interesting description of Russia’s ‘slow-drip’ strategy:

Moving in smaller groups on foot, the most-used tactic, also allows the Russians to covertly build up forces one or two people at a time before their next attack. Armored vehicles are rarely used in offensives anymore, soldiers said.

“You think everything is all right because you haven’t seen a lot of the enemy and then suddenly 10 people run out of one basement,” said Taras, the deputy commander fighting near Pokrovsk. “That happened to us recently. Where did they come from?”


Of course, they still mention the canard of “heavy Russian losses” in the article, but have you ever wondered why in every Ukrainian interview, the AFU soldiers mention their own high losses, yet in equivalent Russian interviews Russian soldiers virtually never mention much losses at all, or at least not particularly high ones? Does one actually suppose that Ukrainian governmental strictures are somehow “freer” and Ukraine has more “freedom” in this regard than Putin’s Russia? It’s a very telling point of fact.

How’s this final admission from the same article?

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https://archive.ph/9tVn0

Either way, even Russian SVR now states that Ukraine is preparing to lower mobilization age, which means it may very well finally happen soon. The likely impetus remains a failure of Trump’s peace talks—which Zelensky is holding out for—which will allow Yermak and his puppet to blame the mobilization on the US’ “betrayal” to take heat off themselves.



An impressive new video comes by way of the Russian 5th Brigade, of the DPR’s ex-1st Army Corps, of the 51st CAA of the Southern Military District.

A four-unit assault formation from the 5th Brigade consisting of one heavy tank with three IFVs rolled into Elizavetovka from the now-captured Vozdvizhenka—just east of Pokrovsk:


Upon entering the village they suddenly ran face-first into two Ukrainian tanks, one of which I have seen identified as a T-64. I will assume both were T-64s. A high-noon standoff ensues with both sides’ tanks firing on each other, and the Russian one destroying his Ukrainian foe while the remaining Ukrainian tank flees. The fleeing tank is then hit by Russian drones soon after.

The remarkable video: (Video at link.)

‼️🇷🇺🎖 Heroic breakthrough near Pokrovsk: Russian tank and 3 IFVs head-on against Ukrainian tanks - battle details

▪️Russian troops are developing an offensive east of Mirnograd. After taking the village of Vozdvizhenka, ours entered Yelizavetovka. A Russian column broke into the village, a battle is underway, enemy resources were written off during the day.

▪️Near Yelizavetovka, our tank and 3 infantry fighting vehicles collided with two Ukrainian Armed Forces tanks at a “dagger” distance of 50 meters.

▪️The tank of the 5th brigade hit the Ukrainian tank point-blank three times, it hit ours twice, but missed.

▪️With the fourth shot, the Russian tank penetrated the armor of the enemy tank and then finished it off.

▪️The second tank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces hid behind the smoke of the burning Ukrainian tank and crawled away.

▪️Our infantry fighting vehicles emerged from under the tank's protection, and troops landed from them in Yelizavetovka and secured their positions.


At the 1:00 mark of the video the Russian tank fires and misses, but hits the dirt in front of the Ukrainian tanks, causing a plume of smoke that blocks their views. One wonders if this was ‘nerves’ or a deliberate quick shot to blind them, perhaps after realizing it would take longer to aim the gun onto the enemy tank than to hit the trigger on a barrel which may have already been pointing toward the ground there.

Either way, it worked and the Ukrainian tanks panic and begin backing up. At 1:09 both fire and seem to miss again due to the smoke. We’re already three shots in at point blank range and no one appears to have hit anyone. At 1:23 the Russian tank fires again and seems to again miss and hit behind the first tank, or possibly grazingly hits it. It’s hard to tell for certain, and a small wisp of white smoke does appear to attest to a possible hit. Another shot at 1:34 however finally hits the front of the Ukrainian tank’s armor—the autoloader on the Russian tank is now working at exactly 10 second intervals, which is much slower than the 6-7second optimal speed most T-72, T-80, and T-90s can do.

But what’s remarkable is at 1:36 the Ukrainian tank returns fire and appears to even potentially hit the Russian tank with a grazing shot. If you look closely you see the tell-tale wisp of white smoke indicating a possible hit on the defensive smoke charges on the turret. The shot explodes behind the Russian tank so it could have grazed off—or perhaps is a miss, it’s hard to tell.

But the final few shots from the Russian tank finally settles matters and finishes off the Ukrainian one. But one can see real modern war is not like video games, things are imperfect and sometimes many shots are needed to finish off the foe. The Russian tank even appears to be hit by something else at 2:06, either a drone or an RPG fired from near the Ukrainian tank, since there is a muzzle flash of sorts visible. But it seems to shrug the hit off with only another smoke canister destroyed.


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Lastly, for those who haven’t followed the incredible story of Yakut warrior Andrey “Tuta” Gregoriev, I wanted to have a centralized place to put all the links for posterity and those interested.

‘Tuta’ was part of the Russian 39th Brigade based in Sakhalin assaulting the village of Trudovoye, just south of Kurakhove here:

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Note Trudovoye is now captured, but the events actually occurred in late November, when the village was still in the gray zone.

Tuta was ordered by his command to proceed on a motorcycle with another partner to plant a flag in the village. This has generated some controversy, like the following:

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Sure, on first impression it may seem like this proves that force density is low and some ‘corrupt’ Russian commanders are sending troops on superficial suicide missions. But in reality, the village was in a gray zone, and a two-man team on a propaganda/scout mission is not totally uncalled for. Placing flags has more psychological importance in war than people on the sidelines give credit for; it’s generally frowned upon when the AFU sends dozens of men to their death for it like in Khrynki.

In this case it may have been a reasonable mission. If you listen to Tuta’s full length interview, you’ll note he conducted all sorts of rear sabotage and killed something like a dozen total AFU before he was done with his remarkable week-long spree behind enemy lines.

For those interested, the full highly graphic video of the fight is here: Video.
A newly released, even more graphic drone view of the same fight is here: Video.
And the full hour-long interview with the hero is here: Video.

Some Ukrainian channels allege that this was the AFU soldier defeated by the Yakut:

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Many have romanticized the fight and the now-famous ‘brotherly’ exchange between the two warriors at the end, but in truth it was mostly just survival and primal forces at work. The Yakut soldier even admits in the full interview he later liquidated a three-man AFU mortar team, including the commander who tried to surrender; when you’re alone behind enemy lines, you don’t have the luxury of honor and chivalry—a ‘prisoner’ would just be a dangerous burden for your journey back to friendly territory.

A last important lesson: many Western propagandists continue parading the spurious notion that Russian forces use the age-old “Soviet-style centralized command”. In reality, Gregoriev’s exploits prove that Russian units operate with much more flexible initiative than their NATO counterparts. He was given leeway for all kinds of self-starting initiative when behind the lines, including sabotaging an AFU ammo depot, fuel warehouse, mortar unit, as well as reconnoitering various valuable military objects.

In fact the sheer know-how of the common Russian soldier was astounding, given his story. At one point he casually remarks how he Macgyver’d a C4 charge to blow the enemy warehouse on the fly, all because they were taught to do so in training, despite the fact he’s not even in any kind of special sapper or engineering battalion.



A few last items:

A report about the utter low quality of troops being press-ganged into the AFU:

A company commander of the 78th Airborne Assault Regiment of the AFU reported the low quality of conscripts arriving from the CVMP. According to him, his company received a drug addict on substitution therapy, two non-conscripts, a person with a mental disorder, a person with hepatitis and two with heart disease, one of whom can barely stand on his feet, and the second of whom almost died and ended up in the hospital. At the same time, as the officer noted, military commissariats do not draft successful healthy businessmen and strong young men of athletic physique, who can be found at various rallies

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An addendum to add for last time when we spoke about Ukraine’s tactic for baiting Russian air defenses into shooting down civilian airliners or other military craft—I had found this snippet saved long ago which offers one piece of evidence for the Ukrainian saboteur tactic:

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A new video showing a Ukrainian Su-25 utilizing the French AASM Hammer missiles against Russian forces: (Video at link.)

You can see the “lofting” tactic employed which we covered here many times long ago, where the plane flies low to avoid radar then briefly shoots up to as high an altitude as possible to gain distance on the missile, before dropping back down under radar coverage.

Intrepid viewers geolocated the plane from the footage, which is just over Konstantinovka:

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That’s fairly ballsy given that it’s only 10-15km or so from the frontline. In fact, we know Russian planes operate nearby given the famous S-70 Ohotnik incident, where the experimental drone fell somewhere over Konstantinovka, which means its wingman Su-57 was operating very close to the town.

Thus it shows the lofting strategy works—at least at times—based on luck, since there’s only a window of a few seconds to detect the Ukrainian plane and launch a missile if Russian assets are in the area.



Lastly, a remarkable video from 2015 where Sergey Dorenko makes a number of prophetic predictions about a most intense European war in the year 2025 and beyond: (Video at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... ches-final

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Overwhelming Evidence of US Pushing Ukraine Into War With Russia: Ted Snider Interview
January 6, 2025



https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/01/ove ... interview/

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Kursk direction: advance of the Russian Armed Forces to Malaya Loknya and the failed attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
January 6, 2025
Rybar

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In the Kursk direction, the situation did not undergo significant changes: Ukrainian formations continued to attack with smaller forces, but the attempts ended the same way as yesterday.

Judging by the objective control footage posted online, during one of yesterday’s attacks, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were still able to “drop in” to the outskirts of Berdyn .

However, the Archangel of Spetsnaz reports that the enemy was unable to gain a foothold there, and this is indirectly confirmed by the absence of more current evidence of the enemy’s presence in the populated area.

In other areas, the situation is approximately the same: despite reports from Ukrainian resources about supposedly successful actions in the direction of Leonidove and Pushkarnoye , units of the Russian Armed Forces repelled all attacks.

Russian troops, in turn, continue their offensive towards Malaya Loknya : according to some reports, they have managed to enter the settlement, although no supporting footage has yet appeared online.

https://rybar.ru/kurskoe-napravlenie-pr ... ataki-vsu/

Pokrovsk direction: advance of the Russian Armed Forces to the supply routes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison
January 6, 2025
Rybar

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In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops continue the gradual encirclement of the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration, advancing in a westerly direction from the previously captured Shevchenko and Novotroitskoye.

The Russian Armed Forces are not yet entering the development on the southern outskirts: the task remains to establish fire control over the roads, which will disrupt the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and facilitate the subsequent assault.

More about the situation in the Pokrovsky direction
On the eastern flank, after the liberation of Vozdvizhenka, Russian troops advanced to Yelizavetovka. The expansion of the Russian Armed Forces' control in the direction of the T-05-04 highway will soon create a threat to the supply of enemy forces from Konstantinovka .

In turn, in the western sector, assault groups liberated the settlement of Volkovo , located near the Kotlino railway station . This also allows cutting off another transport artery in this area and beginning to cover a large urban agglomeration.

At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces continue to "knock out" enemy equipment using FPV drones, including those on fiber optic cable. The latter allow for the effective destruction of enemy electronic warfare systems: in particular, footage of the destruction of two jamming stations at a car depot in the middle of a residential area in Pokrovsk has appeared online.

In general, the enemy is experiencing significant problems near Pokrovsk - what is the story of the 155th separate mechanized brigade, trained in France, worth : the Ukrainian command placed great hopes on it, but due to desertions, the unit suffered major losses and was unable to stabilize the front.

Nevertheless, there is no talk of the collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces defense in the area, and the enemy is even launching counterattacks against the advancing units of the Central Military District and other formations. Therefore, it is definitely not worth running ahead of the locomotive and predicting the imminent fall of Pokrovsk - months of fierce battles lie ahead.

https://rybar.ru/pokrovskoe-napravlenie ... izona-vsu/

Google Translator

******

One million dead claim justice

José Goulão

January 7, 2025

The Maidan coup is behind the loss of about a million human lives and will have to be the basis, the starting point for a necessary and fair trial of everyone associated with it.

I cannot guarantee that the war in Ukraine resulting from the anti-democratic Western coup carried out ten years ago “in the name of democracy”, has already caused a million deaths so far, among Ukrainians and also Russians – which, contrary to the single truth imposed by “our civilization”, they are also people.

The number, however, is close to it, it may even exceed it because the daily killings on the battlefields and the “collateral damage” they generate in the societies of both countries, with much greater repercussions in the unfortunate Ukraine, support such a tragic calculation. For example, the size of some Ukrainian cemeteries has been multiplied fourfold since the start of the Russian special military operation, completed through an illegitimate military invasion. Those responsible for this humanitarian catastrophe, to put a stop to the usual propagandistic delusions of the Euro-“commentary” and national commentators, are the sponsors of the Maidan Square coup in Kiev, successfully launched in 2014 by the main Western powers., with the United States – an “exceptional” and “indispensable” nation and its main satellite countries integrated (or dissolved?) in NATO and the European Union at the forefront.

Victoria Nuland explained to us at the time, without any shame or trace of secrecy, with the authority of someone who occupied a high position in the North American State Department, that the United States invested five billion dollars to overthrow the government of Kiev, by the way resulting from democratic, free and fair elections that no one contested, and put in its place a dictatorial junta with Nazi-Banderist tutelage.

According to the official figure revealed by Nuland and giving the extermination of a million people as probable, the price of human life in the purse of abuses practiced by liberal democracy in the always alleged defense of human rights is five thousand dollars (more or less the same thing in euros) per head.

Looking at the Western economic collapse, one can deduce that the investment seems excessive but, in truth, the possibility of NATO surrounding and even dismantling Russia and thus being able to open the doors to astronomical looting, taking a giant step towards imposing the much-desired globalism seems well worth that price.

The reality, however, was poorly budgeted and sales at a unit price of five thousand dollars represent an inconsequential Western waste of manpower and money because thousands of people continue to die every day on the battlefields of a war lost by Kiev, Washington and Brussels. The Western political classes and their well-trained microphone feet and keyboard-hammering zombies guarantee that no, that the victory of Zelensky and his Hitler supporters will come, perhaps on a foggy day, in exchange for a modest daily expenditure of around 50 million dollars in human lives (around 10 thousand deaths per day), which will be perfectly in line with the predictions of losses and damages – at least according to the technocratic spirit and the “invisible hand” of the Market. It should be noted that the five billion invested in the coup itself plus Western spending on the war to date, on weapons and direct and indirect financing for the Banderista regime, must be close to a total of one billion million, that which the Anglo-Saxons refer to as a trillion dollars – or euros, it doesn’t matter when we enter the domain of these astronomical sums, still the 30th part of the sovereign debt of the United States.

The beginning of the end

The official and only admitted story about the Ukrainian drama, which we have to accept under penalty of being classified as incorrigible Putinists, tells us that it all started on February 24, 2022, when “Russia invaded Ukraine”. And if someone claims that we must go back to February 2014, then the official version is adapted informing us that the problem at that time was triggered by the “Russian invasion of Crimea”.

What Western elites never admit is that it all started with the coup on Maidan Square in Kiev on February 22, 2014, when the legitimate Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovich, democratically elected with 49% of the vote on February 25, was overthrown. 2010.

No one contested these elections or the results, and all Western countries considered them within Ukraine’s democratic normality. One of the “deviations” of the elections, as it belatedly and opportunistically came to be invoked when the crowds of the “revolution of dignity” were already moving through the streets of Kiev under the leadership of Nuland and the American ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt, was the fact that Yanukovich received more votes in the East than in the West of the country, a geographical inclination that, after all, seems to be a peccadillo for democratic sensibilities. But, to better sustain the coup through the faithful media echoes, the owners of truth and democracy in the West soon accused Yanukovych of being corrupt, in a country where corruption is congenital, and of “handing the country over to Russia”, when he had limited himself to reject a partnership agreement with the European Union; which, as is customary, subjected Kiev to the autocrats in Brussels. In other words, the legitimate president was a victim of his government in defense of national sovereignty – a practice that the West does not even want to hear about, not because it is “retrograde”, as it says, but because it is uncomfortable for the strategy of neoliberal globalism, a condition in which we will be happy without having anything and half a dozen hidden mega-thieves will have everything.

Even so, on February 21, 2014, the foreign ministers of Poland, France and Germany went to Kiev, respectively Radoslav Sikorsky (also a British citizen, now again in office), Laurent Fabius and Frank-Walter Steinmeyer, who mediated and arrived at an agreement between the government and the opposition to resolve the crisis through the holding of general elections and the re-entry into force of the 2004 Constitution. By that time, Nuland and Pyatt were already distributing biscuits to protesters on Maidan Square – it seems that the always diligent politician Portuguese Ana Gomes tried it and liked it – while members of Nazi-Banderist groups, distributed on the roofs of surrounding buildings, wearing Ukrainian police uniforms, shot at the crowd, causing dozens of deaths. The fact is duly proven, which is why it was buried in the silence of Western elites, including the media.

The agreement was nothing more than a useless piece of paper and Yanukovych was overthrown. Victoria Nuland then formed a government junta in Kiev including ten members of Nazi-Fascist-Banderist groups and, when mildly criticized for not having shared the task with European leaders, responded with the usual elegance and consideration of the United States towards the satellites: “Fuck the EU” (unnecessary translation).

The West was quick to recognize the coup junta, France, Germany and Poland did not even invoke the agreement they mediated and Kiev’s war soon began against the populations of Russian origin in the east of the country and the Crimean Peninsula, territory originally from Russia but that the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, for whom the October Revolution was a dead and buried event and during a night of libations, in the fifties, decided to join Ukraine.

Moscow then reappropriated Crimea, shortly after the coup in Kiev, but the fact was accomplished only after a democratic consultation with the population; and, as it always happens that the electoral results are not what they wanted, the Western elites considered them a falsification – despite more than 90% of the population having spoken out for reintegration into Russia.

However, in Eastern Ukraine, generally known as the Donbass region, the population had to wait eight years for direct support from Moscow and was forced to organize themselves into self-defence structures, thus managing to stop Kiev’s offensive after many months., which reduced the intensity of the conflict.

The Minsk agreements were then negotiated, which established a type of federative solution for Ukraine and were signed by the Ukrainian parties to the conflict under guarantees granted by Russia and, again, France and Germany.

We would later learn that Poland, France and Germany’s disregard for the agreement between the government and the opposition established in 2014 was not a sporadic case of mystification and bad faith. François Hollande and Angela Merkel, French president and German chancellor, revealed a few years later, without shame, that their signatures on the Minsk agreements were due solely to the need for the Banderist regime in Kiev to gain time and be able to arm itself to achieve in the East the that began on Maidan – the expansion of the apartheid and xenophobic regime under the control of Nazi-Banderism throughout the territory. A need that Paris, now owned by Macron, and Berlin under Scholz, together with the countries of the European Union and NATO, under the tutelage of Washington, met without reluctance over the course of a decade, even paying the price of plunging the West into a deep crisis., possibly explosive.

A parenthesis to point out that Viktor Yanukovych, since then in exile, was sentenced to 13 years in prison by the Kiev regime, which in the meantime suppressed parties capable of authentic opposition to the dictatorial junta; This sentence prompted the European Union, true to its habits, to impose sanctions on the deposed president and his family. While the Biden family, vice-presidents of the Obama administration – the true masters of Maidan – increased their countless wealth by plundering Ukraine’s natural wealth, for their own benefit, mainly in the natural gas sector. Meanwhile, the European General Court ruled on December 23, 2023, to clear Yanukovych and the family of the Kiev charges, invalidating the sentence and ruling that the European Union must lift the consequential sanctions because they were imposed on the basis of “an error of assessment ” since the Ukrainian regime authorities were unable to demonstrate that the trial carried out was fair.

As can be concluded, Western political elites have always been on the side of the lie, the violation of democracy and the international agreements they signed regarding the situation generated by the Kiev regime, where they pontificate nostalgic for Hitler. As if that were not enough, when they could have guaranteed the suspension of the conflict through the Istanbul agreement, still in 2022, these same elites sent the trampoline British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, to Kiev to sabotage it. At that time, Kiev’s war against the East had already caused 13 thousand deaths since 2014. A first and modest investment of 65 million dollars by the Nazi-Banderist regime in the extermination of its people.

The political caste that administers the so-called collective West, in the service of globalist economic-financial mafias and expansionist war, has thus left the planet under the greatest threat to its existence of all time. Therefore, it is not worthy of respect, of credibility, of any consideration from the people of its countries. Liberal democracy is nothing more than a gross falsification of democracy.

The ICC has a difficult task ahead

Let’s pretend we are all very naive and believe that one day the recent decision of the International Criminal Court (ICC) regarding Benjamin Netanyahu will have some practical effect.

Weeks ago, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), a UN body, had taken the same position, but without practical results so far. Netanyahu is immune and unpunished and will remain so. And if it accepted a ceasefire, certainly temporary, in Lebanon, it is because once again its troops and hordes of assassins are unable to bend the Lebanese people and Hezbollah as their stronghold, which once again stood up to the Zionist war apparatus and did not give in, despite the successive beheadings of its main leaders.

Unfortunately, within the UN there are always those who manage to soften and deauthorize the work of the ICJ, such as, in this case, the secretary general, António Guterres. By attending a conference in Lisbon together with the Zionist war criminal Tzipi Livni, directly involved in the permanent genocide in Gaza, Guterres blatantly ignored the court’s position: he knows very well that the ICJ’s decision is not personalized on Netanyahu, who alone would not be able to carry out the ongoing carnage, a work that is the responsibility of the transnational Nazi-Zionist ideology.

The two international courts thus reserved seats for Netanyahu on two benches. The scope of the measure, however, will have to be broader and more comprehensive. The opening of these precedents – which had already happened in relation to Vladimir Putin – can and should mean that those responsible for the war in Ukraine will have to face their Nuremberg on a day when the world is able to do so, if the many candidates for these banks of defendants have not destroyed it before.

With the historical rigor on which these necessary tribunals will have to be based, the individuals to be brought to trial will all be those directly responsible for the Maidan Square coup in Kiev, not just the operatives – Obama, Biden, Nuland and Pyatt – but also those who supported its execution and those who supported and became involved in the consequent war. That has already killed around a million human beings, crimes that cannot go unpunished.

It is difficult, and it is not even possible here, to list all the leaders, civil and military, who will one day have to sit in the dock so that the memories of the fatal victims, the drama of their families and the damage caused are repaired. to millions of wounded and maimed, Ukrainians and Russians.

All heads of government, ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs and high military commands of the United States of America and NATO and European Union countries will have to be indicted. The exception may be Prime Minister Fico of Slovakia, who was already paying with his life the price for his daring to go against the grain. Many will think that Hungarian Viktor Orban could be spared due to his cyclical reticence about involvement in Ukraine; however, he is unconditionally in heart and soul with the murderer Netanyahu, which makes him an equal defendant.

Without the Maidan coup there would be no war in Ukraine, the Crimean Peninsula would still be integrated into Ukrainian territory, there probably wouldn’t even have been the massacre at the House of Trade Unions in Odessa on May 2, 2014; and Ukrainian Nazism would remain residual as was the case before those responsible for the coup that overthrew the elected president Yanukovych gave him gas as the most qualified agent to guarantee repression, torture, terror, the militarization of society and the implementation of apartheid as state policy. And without Maidan, Ukraine would continue to be a state with full territorial integrity and living within normality – although always at the mercy of the colour revolutions organized by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a powerful coup branch of the CIA currently headed by Victoria Nuland herself, as recognition of their terrorist abilities.

The Maidan coup is behind the loss of about a million human lives and will have to be the basis, the starting point for a necessary and fair trial of everyone associated with it. We can mention Obama, Biden and Trump, several U.S. secretaries of state such as Blinken, Pompeo, Tillerson and Kerry, heads of the Pentagon, autocrats from the European Union and NATO such as Van der Leyen, Stoltenberg, Rutte, Charles Michel, Mogherini, Borrel and Kallas and the main leaders of the governments of NATO and European Union countries, without forgetting Costa and Montenegro, Santos Silva and Rangel (Portuguese PM and ministers), both for their support of the war in Ukraine and for their active collaboration with the Zionist genocide and the deliberate and overt tolerance in regarding Israel’s crimes. António Costa, it will never be too much to remind him, appropriated 200 million dollars belonging to Portuguese people to hand it over to the deranged war criminal Zelensky. The 200 million, according to the original value of human life in this war, contributed to the murder of 40 thousand people, a fraction of the slaughter to which no one can remain indifferent, much less justice.

In the name of humanism, human rights, the canons of “Western civilization”, invoked so many times only to be violated so many times, the million dead in the war imposed on the territory of Ukraine following the Maidan coup, on February 22, 2014, and the millions killed, injured, dispossessed and exiled since 1948 at the hands of Zionism demand justice. As citizens, it is an inevitable duty and obligation to actively fight against our governments, the European Union, NATO and imperialism to make this happen. Brute force works in favor of criminals, but courage, determination, unity, even time are in our favor because human reason is difficult, even impossible to bend and break. It is the laws of History.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... m-justice/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Jan 08, 2025 12:32 pm

Worse than losing the war
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 08/01/2025

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Written before the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk or perhaps without much hope that these actions would bring about a qualitative change of trend, The Washington Post warned yesterday in its editorial that “Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, which is nearing the end of its third bloody year, has reached a tipping point.” Problems are piling up for Kiev, which may soon add to the recent loss of Kurajovo that of Toretsk-Dzerzhink, already in the final phase of the battle, or, more importantly, that of the Shevchenko lithium field, an objective that should have been a priority but which, being located in Donbass, has been considered less important than holding positions or advancing in the Kursk region. Reluctant to admit the veracity of negative news, Ukraine has even been forced to admit “problems” in the Anne de Kyiv brigade, which France had so proudly announced to have fully equipped and trained. According to journalist Yury Butusov, up to 1,700 soldiers had left the unit before the brigade reached its first battle. The difficulties are obvious and this is not the time to hide them, but to use them as an argument.

“Ukraine is losing territory, troops and time,” The Washington Post admits , adding that “the coming weeks will determine whether Ukraine can continue to exist as a sovereign state within or near its pre-invasion borders, with full security guarantees for its citizens, or whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will be rewarded and emboldened in his war of territorial expansion.” These words from the editorial board of the Washington newspaper complement what was expressed last week by Antony Blinken, who in the in-depth interview in which he assesses Biden’s four years in office, stated that Putin’s war has nothing to do with security or NATO expansion but with “Putin’s imperial ambitions and the desire to recreate a great Russia, to subsume Ukraine again in Russia.” Noting the irony of warning of the Russian president’s intentions to wipe out Ukraine at the same time that Donald Trump is talking about Canada as a US state, the openly anti-war liberal Russian journalist Leonid Ragozin commented that “Putin launched a brutal aggression against Ukraine after many years of risky maneuvers by Russia with NATO, but [Russia] repeatedly agreed to deals that amounted to the Finlandization of Ukraine, both in Minsk and Istanbul. Nothing can excuse his actions, but stubbornly lying about his motives and intentions hurts Ukraine and its people more than anyone else.” Ragozin’s comment touches on three points that none of the editorials, articles or reports of the mainstream media bother to mention in their publications, where, as The Washington Post editorial shows , the goal is nothing more than to justify the continuation of a war that they do not care to chronicle.

First of all, both Minsk and Istanbul are proof that Russia is aware that its strength is relative in relation to its Western opponents, so its demands at the time it has sat down to negotiate have never been maximalist: Minsk did not include the question of Crimea and was not, as Ukrainian nationalists have claimed for years, a concession to Russia in the form of a loss of autonomy in relation to foreign policy, and Istanbul, which left the question of the Donbass border open to negotiation, was not a victor's peace or the elimination of Ukraine's sovereignty, which would have been at the mercy of Russian intentions. Neither of these agreements, both rejected by Ukraine, show any intention to destroy the Ukrainian state, as Antony Blinken warns.

Secondly, the insistence, both before the invasion and in the Istanbul negotiations, on the issue of security, specifically the demand for neutrality, renouncing NATO and allowing the Alliance to use Ukrainian territory to install its bases - as Zelensky had suggested to the United Kingdom months earlier - was such that Ukrainian negotiator David Arajamia went so far as to suggest last year that the territorial issue was not an important issue for Russia. The statement was so blunt that his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Medinsky, was forced to deny these statements and insist on the importance of Donbass and Crimea for Moscow.

The media, and clearly the editorial of The Washington Post editorial , prefer to focus on the third point, the consequences for Ukraine and its people. After admitting that Russia is advancing in Donbass at the fastest pace since early 2022, the editorial summarises the consequences of the war in terms of territorial control. “Russia controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory and is moving further west every day, especially around Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Ukrainian soldiers who occupied Russia’s Kursk region in August have also lost about 40% of the ground they seized in their surprise offensive and risk being surrounded by advancing Russian troops, backed by North Koreans, who are suffering heavy casualties,” it writes, including, as usual, the dogma of massive Russian casualties. There is no mention of the massive destruction the country is undergoing or the human suffering that comes with the continuation of the war ad infinitum.

Although there is no mention of civilian losses, The Washington Post paints a dire picture regarding personnel. “Ukraine is also losing troops at a rate far beyond what it can sustain and continue fighting. The official casualty estimate of 400,000 killed or wounded is widely considered a vast understatement. Thousands of exhausted Ukrainian soldiers are deserting the front. Only last year did Ukraine begin conscripting men aged 25 and older; the previous age was 27. Some, including US lawmakers, have been pushing Ukraine to start recruiting men as young as 18, but President Volodymyr Zelensky has so far resisted, worried about decimating the next generation and hampered by a lack of equipment to arm the new troops,” it says, admitting to huge casualties, large desertions and difficulties in recruiting. An article in the same newspaper published hours earlier provided recruitment figures for 2024: around 200,000 soldiers, far from the 500,000 expected.

Territorial losses and casualties are not the main problem, however. “The most important commodity Ukraine is losing is time,” the article states. It then goes on to argue that despite the current dire situation – judging by the facts described in the article, a critical situation for Ukraine – “a Trump-imposed deal would be even worse.” The outlet mentions two relevant factors: Trump’s lack of interest in Ukraine and European fatigue. The editorial significantly exaggerates both dangers, as the future US president does not seem to be in a hurry to stop military aid to Ukraine, which he has already stated he will not abandon, while European countries are looking for ways to increase funding to compensate for any possible decrease in Washington’s contribution. Hyperbole is necessary to justify the continuation of policies that have not yielded the expected results.

Neither this nor other similar articles seek the root of the problem or offer the slightest self-criticism of what the refusal to implement the Minsk agreements, the West's refusal to commit to not extending NATO to the Russian-Ukrainian border, or the Ukrainian withdrawal from the Istanbul negotiations, an agreement that offered better conditions than practically any ceasefire agreement that could be reached under current conditions, has meant for Ukraine. The Washington Post is consistent with its position of previous years. In November 2022, with Russia mobilizing to avoid losing the war and trying to stabilize the front, an editorial stated that "the less talk from the Ukrainian side, publicly or privately, about negotiations, the better." Russia was affected but not sunk and it was necessary to continue putting pressure on through military means, although it was the moment of Kiev's clearest strength. At best, Ukraine could now claim victory with an agreement that does not involve withdrawing from NATO, the main objective at present, although that would not hide the fact that territories that Russia was willing to abandon in 2022 would remain under Russian control.

None of these arguments are relevant to Western editorialists who, clinging to geopolitics, to the alleged Chinese threat to Taiwan or to Russia's hybrid war in the Baltic Sea - no one seems to remember the attack on the Nord Stream, the main act of sabotage in the last three years - advocate continuing the war. In this way, they become more belligerent than some of the military protagonists of the last decade. This is the case of Andriy Biletsky, spiritual leader of the Azov movement and commander of the Third Assault Brigade. In an interview this past week, the colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that a ceasefire would not be catastrophic, but would serve to allow Ukraine to modernize and strengthen itself. Biletsky seems to be aware that Ukraine needs time to recover, something that seems to agree with The Washington Post. , which states that “Ukraine can hardly survive another year of this devastating war.” And yet, that is precisely what the outlet proposes, as “a negotiated settlement could produce a bad deal that would reward Mr. Putin for his land grab and ensure that he will launch a new attack for more territory once he has a chance to rebuild his depleted arsenal.” In other words, Russia would have the opportunity to do exactly the same thing that Biletsky admits Ukraine needs to do.

Biletsky, the man Zelensky had to face personally on the front lines when Azov dug in its refusal to retreat from a patch of land just a few square kilometres in size, is prepared to accept a ceasefire “whatever the conditions”. The Azov leader is only concerned with the domestic situation and is oblivious to the significance of the war’s continuation for America . “A bad deal would also leave Ukrainians bitter after seeing their homes, schools and factories destroyed, and friends and family killed. Much of their anger would be directed at the Western sponsors who betrayed them. This is a fight the US – and Ukraine – cannot lose, especially with a bad deal.” Ukrainian well-being is only relevant if their suffering can cause grievance against the West. In proxy war, the population is just a tool to be worried about just enough to prevent it from switching sides. It is the liberal, belligerent version of America first .

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/01/08/peor- ... la-guerra/

Google Translator

From the statements above it is clear that a ceasefire without meeting Russian terms would result in a 'Minsk III' which render all of the loss for naught. Only a neutralized Ukraine can bring peace.

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defence on the progress of the special military operation (as of 8 January 2025 ) Key points:

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 380 servicemen in the area of ​​responsibility of the Western Group of Forces in one day;

- Russian air defence systems shot down 6 HIMARS rockets and 105 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles;

- The Russian Armed Forces damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, the assembly and storage site for unmanned aerial vehicles, and concentrations of foreign mercenaries;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 530 servicemen in the area of ​​responsibility of the Center group;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 160 servicemen in the area of ​​responsibility of the East group of forces;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 110 servicemen in one day due to the actions of the North and Dnepr groups.

▫️Units of the Vostok group of forces advanced deep into the enemy's defense. Formations of a mechanized and two airborne assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Bogatyr, Velyka Novosyolka, Razliv and Konstantinopol of the Donetsk People's Republic. A counterattack by enemy assault units was repelled.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 160 servicemen, a U.S.-made MaxxPro armored combat vehicle , a car, and four guns, including a Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery unit . A warehouse of materiel and an electronic warfare station were destroyed.

▫️Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of the mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​the settlement of Malaya Tokmachka in the Zaporizhia region.

The enemy lost up to 70 servicemen, nine vehicles and a field artillery gun.

▫️ Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, the assembly and storage site of unmanned aerial vehicles, concentrations of manpower and equipment of the armed formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and foreign mercenaries in 147 districts.

▫️ Air defense systems shot down six US-made HIMARS multiple launch rockets and 105 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

▫️ In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 652 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 39,723 unmanned aerial vehicles, 590 anti-aircraft missile systems, 20,290 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,507 multiple launch rocket systems, 20,284 field artillery pieces and mortars, 29,983 units of special military vehicles.

***

Colonelcassad
Rybar: New Ukrainian UAV raid on Russian regions of Russia

At night, Ukrainian formations again launched drones at Russian rear regions: according to the Russian Defense Ministry, air defense systems intercepted 32 devices on the territory of seven regions, as well as over the waters of the Sea of ​​Azov .
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The Saratov Region was subjected to the most massive attack , where, judging by footage from local sources, the strikes hit the territory of the Rosrezerv Crystal Plant, one of the largest aviation fuel storage facilities in the region.

The attack resulted in a major fire at the oil depot — at least several fuel tanks are currently burning. Specialists from specialized services are working at the scene of the incident to eliminate the fire and other consequences of the attack.

Since the beginning of December alone, Ukrainian drones have attacked at least four fuel and energy facilities in Russia: in addition to the aforementioned Saratov Region , oil depots in the Smolensk and Oryol Regions , as well as the infrastructure of the Druzhba oil pipeline in the Bryansk Region , came under fire .
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
Special attention should be paid to the regularly appearing footage of the aftermath of such raids, filmed by local residents. They are not only actively savored by various anti-Russian resources promoting all sorts of theses, but also allow the enemy to objectively assess the results of the past attacks.

In the same so-called Ukraine, the fight against similar filming is being conducted at a much higher level: if at the beginning of the special operation, the search for the consequences of Russian raids was reduced to simply viewing regional media, then over the past two years, finding such information has become much more difficult, and the appearance of the footage of the attacks themselves is mostly exceptional.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief summary from the front, January 6th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jan 07, 2025

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ЛБС 01.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 1st, 2024. ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Зона активных боев=Zone of active fighting.

In Toretsk, Russian forces are expanding their control zone, advancing east of the mine waste heap No. 10 (Террикон Шахты No 10 on the map*) to the northern outskirts of the city, along which there are several waste heaps. The waste heaps near Toretsk are the last heights, north of which there is a lowland towards Konstantinovka.

Attacks are currently continuing in the direction of the Toretskaya mine (Шахта Торецкая on the map), as well as fighting in the area of ​​the waste heaps of the Central mine (Шахта Центральная on the map). Strong control has been established by Russian forces over the eastern waste heap of this mine.

In the south of Zabalka, the enemy was driven out of the Kulatsky Khutor area. West of Toretsk, our units continue assault operations in the direction of the central part of Shcherbinovka. Active clashes are ongoing throughout the entire area, including with the use of armored vehicles.

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ЛБС 12.9.2024=Line of Combat Contact September 12th, 2024. ЛБС 01.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 1st, 2024. ЛБС 01.12.2024=Line of Combat Contact December 1st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Зона продвижения после предыдущей сводки=The zone of advancement since the previous summary.

In the Pokrovsk area, Russian troops continue to form the right flank, expanding the control zone in the Vozdvizhenka (Vozdvyzhenka) area. There is movement in the direction of Baranovka along the road and movement towards it has begun from the forest belts southeast of the settlement, where our units reached the ravine leading to Baranovka and began to advance along it.

The Russian Ministry of Defense officially announced the liberation of the settlement of Dachenskoe. From its area, our forces are pressing in the direction of the road from Lysovka and in the direction of the settlement of Zelenoe. In the latter, Russian units have expanded control in the eastern part of the settlement and are fighting in its center, gradually pushing back the enemy, who is putting up quite stubborn resistance. At the same time, even the Ukrainian Armed Forces admit that they will not be able to hold their positions here, and the village will soon come under our control.

West of Peschanoe, our soldiers continue attacks in the direction of the settlement of Zverevo (Zvirove), advancing through the tree lines and knocking the enemy out of the strongholds located in them.

Russian troops have improved their positions in the Volkovo (Vovkove) area. Fierce fighting is taking place northwest of the settlement of Solenoe for positions in the quarry located there. Our forces are pressing them from both Volkovo and Solenoe. Taking control of this quarry will open the way to Udachnoe, where it is possible to form a bridgehead for the liberation of Pokrovsk, so the enemy is making every effort to prevent our further advance here.

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ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 30.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 30th, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary.

In Petropavlovka, the northern outskirts of the settlement are being cleared. To the south of it, our units have taken a stronghold, thus obtaining positions for further clearing of the enemy fortified area between Petropavlovka and Shevchenko. In the area of ​​the latter, there are also battles for strongholds. At the same time, it has already been noted that Russian forces have begun fire processing of positions in the Andreevka area, which is about two and a half kilometers away.

The Russian army has completely cleared the industrial zone in Kurakhovo and the territory of the treatment facilities to the west of it. Our Ministry of Defense made an official statement on the liberation of Kurakhovo, noting the merits of our military.

In the Velikaya Novosyolka (Velyka Novosilka) area, the Russian Armed Forces continue to carry out attacks in the direction of Vremevka and are fighting along the road from the Gulyaipole (Hulyaipole) side. Enemy transport is being identified and subsequently destroyed. Enemy positions and equipment are also being discovered, and attacks are being carried out on them. To the north of the settlement of Novy Komar, our motorized riflemen from Buryatia occupied several forest belts, destroying enemy personnel in the amount of up to two platoons.

*When Russian letters are written by hand, the lower case "т" looks like a western "m" and "и" looks like a western "u."

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... nt-january

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When You Have No Self-Respect.

That would apply to these "military experts" in UK who pretend that they are slightly more than terrorists and have a grasp of war and applied geopolitics. Remember this cretin?

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He is back at it again)))

Ukraine is humiliating Putin at the worst possible moment.
The new year brings rather more hope to President Zelensky than Vladimir Putin, I judge. The latter may have been a brilliant spy but is being exposed as a dreadful military commander. He has forgotten, or more likely is unaware of, the principles of warfare, most especially the one that says reinforce success not failure. With his three-week special military operation now approaching its fourth year, it seems most likely that Zelensky will still be in power this time next year and Putin’s best hope may be a villa in North Korea or breaking rocks in the Urals. Russian history does not paint a rosy picture for failed dictators.


The NATO militaries, including the US Army generals paraded themselves throughout the SMO as nothing more than credentialed amateurs, who can operate only on templates created on utterly false premises from history to technology. But even considering the fact that British tabloids are just that, a BS peddlers, one has to ask the question, with CV like that:

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What do you expect? Exactly. But when one has no elementary self-respect and NATO armies and fleets are commanded by people with degrees in agriculture, biology or God forbids, journalism, no number of hours in some staff college is going to address a gaping hole in professional military education and integrity which comes with Esprit de corps--a thing beyond the grasp of British military, a demoralized, shrinking lilliputian force which is shown its true miniscule scale by the enemy British loved to hate since 18th century.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/01 ... spect.html

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January 7, 2025 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Europe isn’t the real threat to Ukraine peace but UK

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President-elect Donald Trump with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy at Mar-a-Lago, Florida on Saturday Jan. 4, 2024

The Biden Administration has not given up on Ukraine war. A meeting of the Ramstein Format Meeting is scheduled to take place in Germany on Thursday, chaired by the outgoing US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, to address Ukraine’s defence needs, which the Ukrainian President Zelensky will also address.

Meanwhile, Kiev typically launched an attack in the Kursk region on the eve of the Ramstein Format event as the “curtain-raiser”. The operation, although played up in the British press, is spearheaded by just 2 tanks and fifteen armoured carriers and will no doubt be crushed by the Russian drones and its highly lethal Ka high-performance combat helicopters with day and night capability, high survivability and fire power.

Typically, Zelensky won’t give up on any occasion for grandstanding in front of Western audience. He hopes to display on Thursday that there is still some spunk left in the Ukrainian armed forces. Tragically, he is sacrificing a few dozen Ukrainian soldiers in this melodrama which may distract some attention from the front-line as Russian forces have entered Chasiv Yar and reached the suburbs of Pokrovsk in an operation to surround that city.

With the fall of Chasiv Yar and Pokorovsk, the Battle of Donbass is nearing home stretch. It sets the stage for a massive Russian push to the Dnieper River if the Kremlin is left with no other option but to end the war on its terms. (See a recent article on the future map of Ukraine by the top Moscow strategic analyst Dmitry Trenin titled What Ukraine should look like after Russia’s victory.)

Indeed, the hopes of Donald Trump bringing the war to an end in the first day of his presidency on January 20 have withered away. The Ramstein meeting is a defiant act by Zelensky and his European associates, as Trump is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin soon.

On December 18, Zelensky met in Brussels with NATO chief Mark Rutte and huddled with several European leaders to discuss war strategy. His European interlocutors are also seeking to develop their own plans if Trump, who has pledged to bring a swift end to the war, pulls the plug on the Kiev regime or forces it to make concessions.

The key topic of the Brussels meeting was security guarantees, Zelensky’s office said. Zelensky highlighted his “detailed one-on-one discussion” with French President Emmanuel Macron that focused on priorities to further strengthen Ukraine’s position “regarding the presence of forces in Ukraine that could contribute to stabilising the path to peace.”

Prior to the Brussels meeting, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters that the priority was to secure the “sovereignty of Ukraine and that it will not be forced to submit to a dictated peace.” But, he cautioned, any discussion of boots on the ground would be premature.

Rutte himself counselled that Kiev’s allies should focus on ramping up arms supplies to ensure Ukraine is in a position of strength. Rutte estimated that Ukraine needs 19 additional air-defence systems to protect the country’s energy infrastructure.

Interestingly, Rutte announced that the proposed new NATO command in the German city of Wiesbaden is now “up and running” which will henceforth coordinate Western military aid for Ukraine as well as provide training for Ukraine’s military. Trump is unlikely to preserve the Ramstein Format.

Simply put, Europe, including the U.K., lack the capacity to replace the US military assistance to Ukraine. For the EU to replace the US, it would need to double its military aid to Ukraine. But the current political situation in Europe, along with the real military capabilities of individual European countries, makes this an impossible objective. (See an analysis, here, by Samantha de Bendern at the Chatham House.)

Germany, Europe’s largest military donor to Ukraine, has plunged into political chaos with the collapse of the Scholz-led coalition. Macron, a staunch defender of Ukraine, has lost control over France’s domestic politics since the June parliamentary elections, where he lost his majority. Elsewhere in Europe, political parties on the far right and far left, with pro-Russian sympathies, are rising.

Europeans are running around like headless chicken. The surprise visit of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to Florida to meet Trump and watch a movie with him at this critical juncture of the Ukraine war shows that the smart lady has no confidence in the likes of Macron.

Meloni has a warm equation with Trump’s close aide Elon Musk and is seeking to strengthen business ties with the US. “This is very exciting. I’m here with a fantastic woman, the prime minister of Italy,” Trump told the Mar-a-Lago crowd and added expansively, “She’s really taken Europe by storm.”

Italy, an important NATO power that overlooks the Mediterranean is a vociferous supporter of trans-atlanticism, and pursues a nuanced policy on the Ukraine war that may be of use to Trump to build bridges with Europe. Meloni is positioning herself.

Italy resolutely condemned the Russian annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s subsequent involvement in Eastern Ukraine and joined the EU sanctions against Russia. It demonstrated its military support for Ukraine with significant military aid packages within the framework of an agreement on security cooperation (under previous government headed by Prime Minister Mario Draghi).

That said, Rome has often sought to balance EU responses with its national interests towards Russia. Thus, Meloni’s foreign minister reaffirmed recently, even as Biden authorised Ukraine to deploy long-range American missiles against military targets inside Russia, “Our position on Ukraine’s use of (Italian) weapons has not changed. They can only be used within Ukrainian territory.”

In the final analysis, it is the course of the war that will decide the terms of peace in Ukraine. Europe’s swing toward right-wing governments — Austria is the latest example — may help Russia. However, the crux of the matter is that so long as the spy agencies of Britain and US work in tandem to manipulate the governments in power in White Hall — Labour and Conservative alike — the Trump administration has a serious problem on its hands.

Of course, Trump is well aware of the UK’s pivotal role in hatching the “Russia collusion” plot, which hobbled his presidency. Downsizing Britain’s role can be a game changer for peace in Ukraine.

But the MI6’s capacity to influence the Kiev regime is not to be underestimated. Former UK prime minister Boris Johnson played a seminal role in torpedoing the Russia-Ukraine deal negotiated at the peace talks hosted by Turkey in March-April 2022 just weeks into the conflict. Even if Trump strikes a deal with Putin, which in itself is highly problematic as things stand, London is sure to undermine it one way or another at the first available opportunity, given its Russophobic obsession with inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia.

Possibly, Trump is savouring Elon Musk’s relentless assault on the British government. “America should liberate the people of Britain from their tyrannical government,” Musk wrote on X. But British politicians have the skin of rhino. Sir Keir Starmer is giving as good as he gets. Trump’s challenge lies in mothballing the special relationship with the UK.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/europe- ... ce-but-uk/

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WaPo Editors - Ending The War Is Worse Than Losing

The Washington Post editors have long argued for prolonging the war in Ukraine.

In November 2022, when Ukraine was in a good position to negotiate an end to the war, they argued against it:

Mr. Zelensky and his supporters in the West undoubtedly understand that peace talks might eventually be necessary, his commitment to victory notwithstanding. And yet to declare that, or even imply it, before the time is right — before Ukraine’s armed forces have exhausted every opportunity to regain occupied territory — would convey slackening commitment. And that, in turn, can only convince Mr. Putin that time is on his side and that he should prolong the fighting.

Since then Ukraine’s armed forces have exhausted every opportunity to regain occupied territory - and failed. Russia was then and is now convinced that time is on its side.

Now, finally, the editors acknowledge that their war against Russia in Ukraine is lost. But they still insist that this can not be allowed to be formalized in a ceasefire or peace treaty.

While they are stomping their feet they fail to present an alternative:

Ukraine risks losing the war. A Trump-imposed bad deal would be worse. (archived)
A settlement that dismembers Ukraine and rewards Putin will undermine U.S. credibility.


As Russia is the dominating power in the war in Ukraine there will only be one deal that can be had. It will be along the parameters the Russia's President Putin has laid out. That deal will certainly be less than optimal for the U.S. side but how would it be 'worse' for Ukraine than losing the war?

As for 'credibility':

A pullback now would convey that the United States and its allies lack staying power and that their promises come time-stamped as valid only until the next election date. How might China take such a message as its autocratic president, Xi Jinping, contemplates whether to make a military move to try to seize the self-governing democratic island of Taiwan?

The U.S. 'lack of staying power' is a feature of its democracy. It is well known that U.S. citizen's opinions about supporting a war tend to change over time. Just ask the Vietnamese or the Taliban for experience with this. No unrealistic fear mongering about China will change that fact.

It is however good to learn that the editors (finally) see the situation of Ukraine as unsustainable as it is:

Ukraine is also losing troops at a rate far beyond what it can sustain and continue fighting. The official casualty estimate of 400,000 killed or wounded is considered a vast undercount. Thousands of exhausted Ukrainian soldiers are deserting the front lines.

The editors know that it is over for Ukraine but they still reject to acknowledge the consequences. They say that a deal over Ukraine, any deal, would be bad but there is not even a hint of what an alternative might be:

Ukraine can hardly survive another year of this devastating war. But the haste to find a negotiated settlement could produce a bad one that would reward Mr. Putin for his land grab and guarantee he will launch a new attack for more territory once he has a chance to rebuild his depleted arsenal. A poor settlement would also leave Ukrainians bitter after seeing their homes, schools and factories destroyed, and friends and family members killed. Much of their anger would be directed at the Western backers who betrayed them. This is a fight America, and Ukraine, cannot lose, especially with a bad deal.

The war is lost. A hasty settlement will be bad. Russia will be embolden and the Ukrainians will be sad.

But what else is there to do? The editors don't know. They thus close with a sentence that does not even ('cannot lose') make sense.

Posted by b on January 7, 2025 at 16:38 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/01/u ... .html#more

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Awarding of former Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers fighting on the side of the Russian Armed Forces
January 7, 19:03

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Awarding of the St. George's Crosses of the 4th degree to fighters of the Maxim Krivonos detachment.
The peculiarity of this detachment is that it consists of former Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers now fighting on the side of the Russian Armed Forces.

(Video at link.)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9597589.html

No surrender, they must fight to the death or face a worse fate.

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Jan 09, 2025 12:45 pm

Trump, the Ukraine war and European autonomy
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 09/01/2025

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In addition to suggesting that Hezbollah may have played a role in the January 6, 2021, uprising, referring to rain as “water falling from paradise,” or speculating on how much comes out of the tap or how much washing machines or dishwashers need, President-elect Donald Trump left a handful of worrying headlines at his Tuesday press conference. “France and Germany warned Donald Trump on Wednesday not to threaten “sovereign borders” after the US president-elect refused to rule out military action to take Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, a member of the European Union,” wrote AFP yesterday to describe the confusion caused in the countries of the European Union by the future president’s recent insistence on his country’s “need” to have Greenland. In this era of the return of disputes between great powers, the Arctic will be a priority scene in the coming years in the fight for minerals and raw materials. Hence, in addition to the desire to control an area in which Russian and Chinese ships operate via the northern route, the US is interested in increasing its presence in Greenland, where the United States already has a military base, a remnant of the Cold War. Control of the Arctic, and not the balance of payments, also seems to be the reason why Trump has been trolling Canada for weeks, calling its prime minister the governor general and the country the “51st state.” Evidently, Trump is not seeking to annex the territory but to destabilize an already complicated situation in its northern neighbor, where Justin Trudeau, having lost all his popularity, has resigned and the election of a new person to head the party and the government is expected. The objective is purely economic and is linked to Trump’s main fight these weeks, protectionism and tariffs.

In the Canadian case, the future president specified that the fight will be economic and not military, something that Trump refused to rule out with respect to Greenland or Panama. In Central America, the concern is not the fight for natural resources, but rather the same thing that has marked US policy in that region for the last century, control of trade and the Panama Canal. The isolationist Trump embraces a modified version of the Monroe Doctrine - preventing European countries from regaining power in Latin America - now applied to China, where the future president falsely claims that Chinese soldiers operate and control the canal. Trump cannot avoid giving a touch of the Roosevelt Corollary - America for the Americans - that accompanied that doctrine. In the same press conference, he announced that the Gulf of Mexico will be renamed the Gulf of America, in obvious reference to the United States and not to the entire continent.

Reactions to Trump's speech, which is not limited to his performance on Tuesday but to the narrative and themes he has introduced since his election victory, remain mixed. The Mexican president picked up on her future American counterpart's bluff and appealed to the Apatzingán Constitution to ask why they should not call the south of what is now the United States "Mexican America" ​​again. With less humour, both Justin Trudeau and the current front-runner to be his successor, Pierre Poilievre, have expressed annoyance and have insisted that Canada will never be annexed. Canadian MP Elizabeth May, on the other hand, has offered to accept California, Oregon or Washington as Canadian provinces if the population so chooses, reminding them that in Canada the population has public health care. Much more vulnerable as a small and poor country, Panama has limited itself to denying Chinese control over the canal and reminding that the recovery of the territory, whose control was returned by then President Jimmy Carter in exchange for neutrality in its use, is irreversible. Panama is aware of the risk of angering the most powerful country on the continent, but it is also aware of the social consequences of US control of the canal and an invasion by Washington's troops.

From a distance and perplexed by what is happening, the European Union seems to be still looking for a way to react to this new reality in which it is not an enemy like Russia but an ally like the United States who - seriously or not, since with Trump the limits of reality and fiction are never completely delimited - threatens the territorial integrity of one of the member countries. The belligerent rhetoric, the openly expansionist intentions and the desire to obtain more presence and control in different regions of the planet in a context of struggle between great powers, a scenario that is more reminiscent of the 19th century than the Cold War, have completely disoriented the European leaders at the worst possible time. Unable to find a coherent response to Donald Trump's words, as Leonid Ragozin commented, the only geopolitical post by Kaja Kallas on the day that the future tenant of the White House threatened Denmark stated that "Russia continues to use gas as a weapon and once again Moldova is the target of its hybrid war." The leadership of the European Union and member countries continue to exploit the Russian threat, in this case blaming Russia for the supply cut-off caused by Ukraine’s refusal to continue the transit of Russian gas through its territory – coupled with the debt of almost 709 million dollars that the country has accumulated with Gazprom, which demands payment before resuming supplies by alternative means – partly to avoid having to comment on Donald Trump’s words. The American pressure comes in a context in which European countries refer to the need to maintain their strategic autonomy but find themselves in a situation of subordination to Washington caused by the decisions taken in Brussels and other capitals since February 24, 2022. From that moment on, war became the raison d’être of the Ukrainian state and also of the European Union, which has not hesitated to insist that the Ukrainian conflict “is existential” for the bloc. Now, the continuation of this war and the possibility of continuing to fight until a positive result is achieved for itself and for Ukraine depends on the position of Donald Trump, who, despite his recent imperialist and militaristic desires, does not see the Ukrainian conflict as a war of interest to him. Europe is no longer the priority scenario on the geopolitical chessboard that it was decades ago.

The sheer number of headlines that Tuesday's eccentric press conference left behind has pushed statements on the NATO issue and the resolution of the Ukraine conflict into the background. Hours earlier, it had been confirmed that Keith Kellogg, the Trump administration's future representative for Ukraine, will not visit the country before the inauguration. The trip had been planned as a mission to gather information, a preliminary step to presenting proposals to the future president and then choosing a concrete plan to implement to achieve the set objectives, possibly a negotiation with a view to a ceasefire. Postponing Kellogg's visit is a way of showing that Donald Trump has already forgotten the haste he showed a few months ago and that he does not want to resolve the conflict before even returning to the White House.

Judging by his remarks on Tuesday, the president-elect has not changed his mind on the security issue. Donald Trump has been critical of NATO in the past, demanding that European countries increase their contributions and even threatening those who did not meet the minimum 2% of GDP in defense spending with abandoning them to Russia if attacked. Trump has also been critical of the idea of ​​admitting Ukraine into the alliance, although he has never been as clear as he was on Tuesday, when he referred to eastward expansion in a manner very similar to that used by the Kremlin. “A big part of the problem is that Russia – for many, many years, long before Putin – said, ‘You can never have NATO in Ukraine. ’ I mean, they have said that,” said Trump, who evidently does not remember the disinterest of the Yeltsin governments in preventing the expansion of the alliance towards their borders. “That is set in stone,” he added, without denying the legitimacy of Russia’s demand not to have a rival military alliance on its borders. In his eagerness to place the blame for all ills on his current rival, Joe Biden, Trump went on to claim that “at some point, Biden said: ‘No. They should be able to join NATO.’ Well, then Russia has someone right on its doorstep and you can understand its feelings about that.” The lack of response from European countries in the first 24 hours after the statement is evidence of Europe’s inability to respond to a surprising statement coming from the future leader of the country that supports the Alliance.

In the negotiations that Ukraine is conducting with its allies in search of beneficial conditions for kyiv to agree to a ceasefire, an option that the extreme right has already accepted but which the government remains reluctant to accept, Zelensky and his entourage have opted to prioritise the issue of security over the territorial aspect. Reluctantly and temporarily, Ukraine would be willing to agree to a ceasefire in the event of progress towards accession to the European Union, a guarantee of financing and investments, a large arms package to strengthen defence and, above all, the elephant in the room: security guarantees. kyiv can only allow itself to accept a ceasefire if it achieves something more than what Russia offered it in Istanbul, which involved a minimal territorial loss limited to Donbass and Crimea, a commitment to neutrality and security guarantees from Moscow, Washington and other European capitals. Any agreement reached now will be less favourable to kyiv in territorial terms, as the Russian Federation is not prepared to give up territories as it was two years ago, so the emphasis must be on security.

Despite insistence, Ukraine did not receive the long-awaited official invitation to join either at the last summit of the alliance or from Joe Biden after losing the elections. Nor has the idea of ​​bilateral security guarantees, an agreement that would oblige the United States to defend Ukraine in the event of aggression, been to the liking of the Biden administration, which is much more favourable to kyiv than the future Trump team. The president-elect's words further complicate Zelensky's negotiations with the United States. With its main objective, NATO, out of reach, kyiv will have to settle for seeking somewhat more realistic concessions, although it is unlikely that the current Trump, who seeks benefits, not commitments that tie him to other countries or force him to use his resources, will offer a bilateral agreement sufficiently similar to that provided for by Article V of collective security of the Alliance and which the United States also refused to grant to Ukraine in 2022.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/01/09/trump ... a-europea/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of January 9, 2025)

— Units of the North group of forces in the Kharkov direction defeated formations of the motorized infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the settlement of Volchansk, Kharkov region.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 45 servicemen and a vehicle.

— Units of the West group of forces improved the tactical situation, defeated the manpower and equipment of four mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, three territorial defence brigades and a National Guard brigade near the settlements of Dvurechnaya, Novaya Kruglyakovka, Kovsharovka, Ivanovka and Zapadnoye, Kharkov region. Repulsed six counterattacks of assault groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The enemy's losses amounted to 480 servicemen, a tank, three armoured combat vehicles, including an infantry fighting vehicle, a Polish-made Rosomak armoured personnel carrier and a Kozak armoured car. Three vehicles, three artillery pieces, two electronic warfare stations and five ammunition depots were destroyed.

— Units of the "Southern" group of forces improved the situation along the forward edge, defeated formations of two mechanized and two airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Belogorovka, Orekhovo-Vasilevka, Chasov Yar, Vasyukovka and Yantarnoye of the Donetsk People's Republic. Repulsed two enemy counterattacks.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 245 servicemen, three combat armored vehicles, including two infantry fighting vehicles and a Patriot armored car.
Five pickups, an electronic warfare station and an ammunition depot were destroyed.

— Units of the Center group of forces occupied more advantageous lines and positions, defeated the manpower and equipment of five mechanized, ranger brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the brigade of the National Police of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Dzerzhinsk, Shcherbinovka, Shevchenko, Sribnoye, Petrovka, Vozdvizhenka, Novovasilevka, Petrovpavlovka and Novoelizavetovka of the Donetsk People's Republic. Repulsed 12 counterattacks of assault formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The enemy lost up to 510 servicemen, five combat armored vehicles, including an infantry fighting vehicle, armored personnel carriers M113 made in the USA and VAB made in France, six cars and five howitzers.

— Units of the "East" group of forces advanced deep into the enemy's defense, defeated formations of two mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a marine brigade and a territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Bogatyr, Konstantinopol, Velyka Novosyolka, Razliv, Komar of the Donetsk People's Republic and Temirovka of the Zaporizhia region.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 155 servicemen, a tank, seven vehicles, five field artillery pieces, including a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Paladin" and a 155-mm howitzer M198 made in the USA. An ammunition depot was destroyed.

— Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of an infantry brigade, two coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a National Guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Stepnogorsk, Novoandriyevka in the Zaporizhia region, Ponyatovka, Antonovka and Prydniprovske in the Kherson region.

The enemy lost up to 45 servicemen, an armored combat vehicle and seven cars.
Four electronic warfare stations and two ammunition depots were destroyed.


https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Give the armchair patriots a knife

20km lost a day. Azov: we need a ceasefire, any ceasefire. Russian fiber-optic drones. Dead souls. Pokrovsk corruption. Russian tactics.
Events in Ukraine
Jan 07, 2025

Today’s war newsletter will focus on meta-issues, not just who took what on the frontline. Tomorrow’s post will do that, as well as some information on the latest stunts in the Kursk region. Today’s topics include:

*Statistics on Ukraine’s territorial losses

*Ukrainian militarists on war and peace. Azov’s great Leader on the need for a ceasefire, any ceasefire

*The Russo-Ukrainian knife fight: Ukrainian frontline militarist calls to ‘give the armchair patriots a knife’. “In the meantime, truly, war is when people who don't know each other kill each other for the interests of people who know each other all too well.”

*Weapons: the struggle for drone domination, Russia’s superior new fiber-optic drones, Ukrainian criticism of western ‘wunderwaffen’ fixation

*Numbers: just how many Russian soldiers are in Ukraine? What kind of numerical advantage do they really have? Profitable dead souls in the army

*Corruption - hundreds of hryvnia spent on officials’ salaries and public amenities in ruined frontline Pokrovsk

*Organization and training issues versus intelligent orcs. “I have to be fucking frank, their preparation here is at a high level. Now they are creating a foothold to move forward!”

*Muchnoy Jugend’s interview: opinions on Syrsky, problems with salaries, western weaponry, and the latest on the DeepState saga

*Ukrainian militarists complain about intelligent Russian tactics and Ukrainian military crudity

*Mournful frontline poetry: We were shot down like targets in a shooting range,
While someone at the headquarters earned their medals.

To begin, two relevant numbers.

First, war: top liberal-nationalist ‘military fundraiser’ Taras Chmut calculated that Ukraine has been losing 20 square kilometers of territory per day. This is what he wrote in a January 4 twitter post:

Image

Are we winning or losing? Let’s look at the numbers.

The editorial team at @mil_in_ua, using public and open-source information, analyzed the changes on the frontlines over the past year.

The key figure: we have lost approximately 3,600 km² of territory in all directions — Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv regions.

Is this a lot? Everyone can decide for themselves. For example, in 2023, we lost about 540 km² but liberated around 430 km².

On the other hand, this year we carried out a lightning operation in the Kursk region, gaining control of approximately 1,100 km², of which we still hold about 460 km².

But for me, the saddest part of these numbers is something else — the accelerating momentum of the Russian offensive:

*In June, it was around 100 km² per month and 3.4 km² per day.

*By September, it increased to 400 km² per month and 13.4 km² per day.

*The peak came in November, with 610 km² per month and 20.3 km² per day.

Think about it: we are losing 20 square kilometers every single day.


Next, peace.

A January 3 poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that the number of people willing to cede territory for peace and preserving independence has doubled over the past year. In December 2023, 19% held this view, but by December 2024, the figure had risen to 38%.

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Orange: For the quickest achievement of peace and preservation of independence, Ukraine could give up some of its territories. Blue: Under no circumstances should Ukraine give up any of its territories, even if this means the war will last longer and there will be threats to preserving independence. Gray: It's hard to say.

It isn’t hard to see the independent variable - with the above graph starting in May 2022, the proportion of orange answers shifts substantially upwards (from 10% to 14%) between May and October 2023 - right as the much-heralded counter-offensive failed. And it keeps on rising as the prospect of regaining lost territory transforms into the reality of losing already-held territory.

Such sentiment is most prevalent among residents of the war-torn south (40%) and east (41%). In the relatively peaceful west, the figure stands at 35%, and in the central regions, it is 38%.

Peace
I’ve written at length here about the main division regarding peace among Ukraine’s civil society (ie, the nationalist core ~20% of society with the privilege of having political opinions).

On the one hand, there are the ‘grant-feeders’ or ‘Sorosites’ along with Zelensky and his coterie, who support forever-war. The grant-feeders because their grant-givers across the Atlantic say so, or because they know that wartime is when the grant-flow really gets going. They are also supported by ‘Sorosite nazis’ like Serhii Sternenko. Zelensky and co because they know that any peace means political democratization, and political democratization means Zelensky is lucky to find himself in prison, given the amount of powerful enemies he’s made in wartime.

On the other hand, there are the frontline militarists, plenty of whom support a ceasefire. This is the likes of the Azov batallion. Unlike the Sorosites or Sternenko, they are on the frontlines risking their lives. They also have a clearer idea of the strain facing the Ukrainian army, and fear a collapse of the military and state.

Of course, frontline militarists are hardly pacifists, and generally say something along the lines of ‘we need to keep fighting to make sure that any ceasefire doesn’t betray our interests and is on our conditions’. And among the sorosites, particularly Radio Free Europe’s Ukraine branch, one sometimes does get the impression they believe that Zelensky-style forever war threatens state collapse. On the other hand, they probably think that the solution is putting more honest patriots in charge… In any case, somewhat of a division is clear.

On January 4, Azov’s leader Andriy Biletsky, the ‘white Fuhrer’, had this to say about ceasefire in an interview. He decided to take on the popular Zelenskite/nationalist narrative that ‘sure, we support a ceasefire, but only on our conditions’:

If there is a ceasefire under any conditions, on January 20 or at any other time, there’s nothing inherently bad about it as long as we focus on modernizing the country and the security sector. If there is a ceasefire, nothing catastrophic will happen unless we fall into anarchy, endless conflict, and debates over who fought more, who is a greater hero, who is a better volunteer, and who loved Ukraine more over the past three years. As long as we avoid this anarchy and start modernizing the country, then it’s fine.

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Biletsky (middle) certainly doesn’t strike the figure of a pacifist

As I wrote in my August 2 article on the matter of nationalists and ceasefire, ‘the Fourth Reich demands peace and purges’. They are certainly worried that with forever-war, the popularity of ‘pro-Russian’ ‘peace populism’ will only grow. And they have reason, as two recent media events showed.

First, back in mid-December the ‘pro-Russian’ politician Yury Boiko called for a ceasefire and criticized Ukrainian nationalism in general. In response, all manner of nationalist telegrams called to execute him, and he later apologized after some visits from the Security Services. In any case, it shows that the popular demand for peace is strong if Boiko was willing to risk himself to such an extent.

And a few days later, close media attention erupted towards Azov’s Denys Prokopenko’s real estate acquisitions in the capital. Such insinuations about the ‘hero of Mariupol’ would have been unthinkable even at the start of 2024. Clearly mobilization and things like the endless military torture sandals have done much to degrade the image of the AFU soldier.

Officer, December 30:

Personally, I wouldn’t mind if the war ended even right now. Of course, much depends on the conditions of its conclusion, but the momentum of the war has grown so much that everyone understands the impossibility of an abrupt stop.

However, amidst this darkness, we can see a glimmer of light—good news is expected in the coming days, and hopefully not just one.

Wishing everyone peace. 🫡


Azov’s military analyst Roman Ponomarenko, January 3:

The closer it gets to January 20, the more Ukrainians hope that the war will soon end. However, if we look at the situation on the frontlines, there are currently no prerequisites for this to happen. The war remains at a stage where neither side can deliver a decisive blow to force the other into peace. Russian advances in Donbas come at a very high cost in blood, and despite all the challenges faced by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they do not lead to a collapse of the front. Most importantly, the human and material resources of both countries are far from exhausted. Under such conditions, the very premise for starting peace negotiations is absent.

Moreover, resolving the conflict through negotiations, where neither side achieves its goals, is guaranteed to be unpopular with the elites and societies of both countries. The consequences for the ruling classes could be catastrophic, and they are well aware of this. Therefore, from an objective perspective, it currently appears that both governments are likely to continue hostilities, hoping to secure a more advantageous position for negotiations or that the opponent will be the first to lay down arms.

Thus, it's not the time to relax.


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The Aidar Batallion’s Stanislav Buniatov, January 2:

You can read about Aidar’s activities here and here. Quite unsavory people.

Most people say that no negotiations are needed, but I hold a slightly different, subjective opinion.

Negotiations are needed, but not on the terms imposed by the Russians. We need to fuck the Russians up and gain some leverage for these negotiations because right now, all we have is the Kursk region, which is shrinking every day and taking our people with it.

To achieve this, it’s not enough to just shout about the "insufficient cost for the Russians." We need to transition to robotic assaults, stop fundraising for drones that have already been tested long ago, and witness real action against corruption and traitors.

We will either prevail through technology or lose and sacrifice those on the front lines who are more worthy of this country than anyone else.
There are no other options.


This, by the way, was Buniatov on December 18, responding to Boiko’s call for a ceasefire on non-nationalist grounds:

Boyko, die, you animal!
If there’s an opportunity to legally eliminate people like you, I’ll do it for fun.

Is he really harder to take down than a russak in Moscow?
Mr. Maliuk, keep working 🛴


Maliuk is head of the SBU, Ukraine’s security services. I mentioned him in my article on the SBU here. Here he is with a friend.

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The 46th Brigade, January 3:

For those not in the know, this was a knife fight that took place in mid-2023, but the bodycam video of which emerged a few days ago and took the internet by storm. Though the Russian eventually won, the Ukrainian in his dying breaths praised him - ‘You were the best fighter in the world’. This is at 6:30 in the video. Don’t watch unless you want to. Source of the translation here. (Video at link.)

Russian military telegrams praised the conduct of both fighters. It ties in quite well with their narrative of the two brother, warrior nations pushed to fight by external forces. Ukrainian military telegrams either avoided talking about it or said that it made them very depressed (eg Buniatov here).

Anyway, onto the commentary from the 46th, which I included mainly for what it says about those who call for forever-war while located far from the front:

Many have seen the video where our Warrior fought hand-to-hand with a russian to the very end, falling as a Hero—in battle. For many, this video was a shock; for those on the front lines, it was just another page of the war. From Kursk to Kherson, such battles—always with varying outcomes for the opponents—happen daily by the dozens, if not hundreds.

But this video must be shown to the armchair "back-to-the-1991-borders" experts. If you're ready, then join us; we'll give you a knife and then a "platform" for your "expert opinion." If you survive.

It must be shown to our PR puppets—those "opinion leaders"—who, while holding their meetings, long ago decided they have a free pass from responsibility for their words.

It must be shown to politicians who are still thinking not about how to end the war but about how best to position themselves after it. Preferably by imagining one of their own sons in the place of our Warrior in the video.

We guarantee a radical shift in their consciousness.

In the meantime, truly, war is when people who don't know each other kill each other for the interests of people who know each other all too well.


Numbers
I recently finished a three-part series arguing that Russia is able to push forward on the front despite numerical inferiority/equality with Ukraine in large part because of the low motivation of Ukrainian troops. Here is another intervention in the topic. First by (pseudo-)patriotic Poroshenkite (anti-Zelensky) politician Oleksiy Honcharenko, and then from a much more bonafide frontline Valhallan warrior.

(Paywall with free option)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... ts-a-knife

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The cancellation of western mainstream debate on what’s happening in Ukraine

Ian Proud

January 8, 2025

Western officials and journalists take numbers from the Ukrainian Defence Ministry as truer than the Gospel.

There has been an enormous cancellation of debate on Ukraine in the mainstream western media. Google does its part too, making it very difficult in the west to search for and find genuinely independent reporting on what is happening. When you search for key issues, such as Ukrainian casualty rates, ultra-nationalism in Ukraine, presidential elections or the state of Ukraine’s economy, the computer will normally say no.

Let’s look at those areas where independent information and analysis is actively withheld from western citizens.

The number of Ukrainian casualties

In a war that has killed or injured, by most accounts, over a million people, the issue of which side has suffered most may appear academic. Why can’t we stop the killing, would be my first question?

But the western media often claims that Russia has suffered far greater casualties than Ukraine. They do this to maintain the argument that, even though Ukraine is losing on the battlefield, it could still win the war. This is completely false.

The go-to figure used by western journalists is that 1,500 Russian troops are being lost on the front line every day. This number has no basis in analysis but is rather plucked from a Ukrainian military intelligence report of early November. Recognising that it is in the interests of both sides in a conflict to embellish the other side’s casualty figures, western officials and journalists nevertheless take numbers from the Ukrainian Defence Ministry as truer than the Gospel.

What the Ukrainian side almost never does is to admit the shocking number of Ukrainian casualties so far. In a rare announcement on the subject, Zelensky suggested in December 2004 that 43,000 Ukrainian troops had died. No serious analysts believes that figure. I have seen estimates of upwards of 700,000 Ukrainian dead or injured. Looking at the six separate exchanges of dead bodies between the Russian and Ukrainian side during 2024 which have been reported in the press, six times more bodies were returned to Ukraine (1611) compared to Russia (273). That doesn’t mean that Ukraine has suffered six times as many deaths, as Russia has been advancing and Ukraine retreating. But few serious analysts really believe that Russia is suffering a higher rate of casualties than Ukraine, quite the opposite.

Yet talking about Ukrainian casualties in the western media would reaffirm the assessment many realists have made, that Ukraine is losing on the battlefield, suffering greater casualties than Russia, and urgently needs to sue for peace.

The ‘Russia is suffering more’ narrative is merely a PR tool to bolster Zelensky’s never-ending quest to keep fighting and to receive additional billions in support from the west in a battle he can’t win.

Ultra-nationalism in Ukraine

I have never believed that most Ukrainians are Nazis, but there is a huge body of evidence to suggest that Nazi-sympathising groups have a disproportionate influence on state policy in Ukraine. Western media seldom discusses this.

A recent ultra-nationalist torch parade in Lviv to commemorate the birthdate of the Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera received no western coverage, for example. Nor the extinguishing of a Jewish menora statue. Any suggestion that there is a deeply unpleasant ultra-nationalist core at the heart of decision making in Kiev is written off as pro-Russian propaganda.

It didn’t used to be like this. In the run up to the Polish and Ukrainian hosting of the Euro 2012 Football championship, there was widespread reporting in UK media about the risk of anti-Semitism among Polish and Ukrainian football fans. The Kyiv Post reported on Svoboda’s anti-Semitic and racist tendencies when, in 2012, the marginal ultra-nationalist party form western Ukraine gained seats in the Verkhovna Rada. In the aftermath of the 2014 coup to remove Viktor Yanukovych, the western press cautiously reported on the prevalence of ultranationalists like Right Sector in the Maidan protests; they instead minimise their role, particularly in the killing of 100 protestors by snipers, despite evidence suggesting their possible involvement or complicity. In 2015, politico was still describing Svoboda, Patriot of Ukraine and the Social-Nationalist Assembly as neo-Nazi organisations. A 2019 photo essay in the Guardian newspaper suggested the Azov battalion was also neo-Nazi and had propagated white supremacist views. Yet this same group was welcomed with open arms into the Reform Club in London by Boris Johnson in the spring of 2024, who greeted them as ‘heroes’.

It is now entirely commonplace to see black and red flags of the neo-Nazi Ukraine Insurgent Army displayed at Ukrainian military ceremonies, even at the passing out parade of the Anna of Kyiv Battalion that was trained in France. A cross-chest fascist salute is commonplace in photographs of Ukrainian army formations. The term ‘Slava Ukraini’ slips off the tongues of western political leaders more easily that ‘Heil Hitler’, as they don’t obviously seem to appreciate it’s neo-Nazi associations.

The most corrosive aspect of Ukrainian ultra-nationalism has been the relentless quest since 2014 for Ukrainian to be the sole and only language spoken in Ukraine. This first manifested itself in the declaration of the Verkhovna Rada on 24 February 2014, two days after Yanukovych’s ouster, to cancel the Kolesnichenko language law which allowed for Russian to be considered on of Ukraine’s state languages, among others. Perhaps more than other reckless moves by the Ukrainian side, attempting to deny the Russian language to a significant proportion of Ukraine’s population that speaks Russian as a first language, was the act that provoked Russian intervention.

By refusing to talk about the challenge of ultra-nationalism in Ukraine, western commentators are potentially contributing to its growth and for the maintenance of a war posture in Kiev. It is also holding back prospects for Ukraine to emerge from war and continue on its road to potential future EU membership.

The absence of democratic elections

The issue of ultra-nationalism is perhaps not seen as a pressing challenge right now, as Ukraine itself is going through a markedly undemocratic phase, given the constraints of war. Because western commentators also seldom talk about the pause in presidential elections in Ukraine.

These elections in Ukraine should have taken place in Ukraine in March 2024, but were postponed sine die because the country is under martial law. This is not necessarily an illegitimate move. Elections didn’t take place in the United Kingdom for ten years between 1935 and 1945 because of the intervention of World War II. However, in the United Kingdom, the government was comprised of a coalition representing the two main political parties, the Conservatives and Labour. This was despite the Conservative party having a very large majority in Parliament. During the war, political power in Britain was shared in the interests of the nation.

However, in Ukraine, no such division of power exists. Zelensky has centralised all power into the office of President. By edict, he can rule on any topic, for example, making it illegal for any official to hold talks with Russia about peace. For now, any decision to negotiate with Russia an end of the war appears entirely to be in his power.

Ukraine, though, has found itself in the perfect storm of losing the war slowly yet continuing to receive billions of dollars’ worth of aid and loans each year. If Ukraine was losing in a more dramatic way on the battlefield, there would be more internal pressure for Zelensky to sue for peace. But, for now, western sponsors appear happy to keep paying for slow defeat. Western leaders treat Zelensky like a superhero when he visits, yet Ukrainian opinion polls suggest that he would lose a Presidential election to Zaluzhny, and that many Ukrainians believe Zelensky shouldn’t even stand for office again. Zelensky has now started using excuses such as that it would be impossible to hold elections with so many Ukrainians living outside the country; although that didn’t seem to be a problem in the recent elections in Moldova, where diaspora voters tipped the vote in favour of Maia Sandu. The real issue here, I suggest, is that with over one million Ukrainians having moving to Russia, that Zelensky would not wish for them to vote.

Zelensky has fallen into the same trap that many dictators fall into, in believing that he is the state, and therefore indispensable. So, it is not in Zelensky’s interests to negotiate an end to the war, as that would almost certainly mean an end to his political career.

Even Trump’s pick for Director of National Intelligence – Tulsi Gabbard – has described Zelensky as an unelected dictator. But you will never hear the western media talk about that. They have spent three years lionising Zelensky and it would be damaging to their credibility to suggest that, rather then being part of the solution, he may be part of the problem.

The state of Ukraine’s economy

As war grinds on, there is considerable western reporting of the state of Russia’s economy. Despite Russia forecast to grow by over 3% in 2024, when final figures are released, western journalists portray an imminent meltdown on the back of admittedly high inflation and interest rates caused by the massive fiscal stimulus of war spending. However, Russia’s foundations remain strong with state debt at only 14% and international reserves topping $620bn (including that part which is currently frozen by sanctions). There’s no evidence to suggest Russia will be unable to continue to prosecute a war for the foreseeable future.

On the other hand, Ukraine’s economy is entirely dependent on foreign handouts. Of the $93bn budget that was set for 2024, almost fifty percent of that cost was to be met by lending, either from western donors or domestic bonds to Ukrainian citizens. Another $12.5bn would be provided in the form of free handouts from the west, the biggest donor being the U.S. So, Ukraine racked up over $44bn in new debt in 2024 – or almost one quarter of GDP – and will do the same in 2025. The economic cost of the war is completely unsustainable for Ukraine with debt soaring above 100% of GDP and no plan to repay it. Indeed, it is far from clear that any donor government will receive back the money they have lent to Ukraine. And the worst part is, there is no plan to keep paying the bills in Ukraine after 2026. So, in the entirely plausible – though hopefully unlikely – eventually that western leaders are persuaded by Zelensky to keep fighting into 2026, they may be shocked to discover that they will need to pay for it.

If this was covered in the western media, there would be far more pressure among western voters to bring the war to its resolution, because Ukraine isn’t winning but Zelensky is still writing cheques at our expense.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... n-ukraine/

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New Ukrainian UAV raid on Russian regions
January 8, 2025
Rybar

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At night, Ukrainian formations again launched drones at the rear regions of Russia: according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, air defense systems intercepted 32 devices on the territory of seven regions, as well as over the waters of the Sea of ​​Azov .

The Saratov region was subjected to the most massive attack , where, judging by footage from local sources, the strikes hit the territory of the Rosrezerv Crystal plant, one of the largest aviation fuel storage facilities in the region.

The attack resulted in a major fire at the oil depot — at least several fuel tanks are currently burning. Specialists from specialized services are working at the scene to eliminate the fire and other consequences of the attack.

Since the beginning of December alone, Ukrainian drones have attacked at least four fuel and energy complex facilities on Russian territory: in addition to the aforementioned Saratov region , oil depots in the Smolensk and Oryol regions , as well as the infrastructure of the Druzhba oil pipeline in the Bryansk region , have come under fire .

Special attention should be paid to the regularly appearing footage of the aftermath of such raids, filmed by local residents. They are not only actively savored by various anti-Russian resources with the promotion of all sorts of theses, but also allow the enemy to objectively assess the results of the past attacks.

In the same so-called Ukraine, the fight against similar filming is being carried out at a much higher level: if at the beginning of the special operation the search for the consequences of Russian raids was reduced to simply viewing regional media, then over the past two years it has become much more difficult to find such information, and the appearance of the footage of the attacks themselves is, for the most part, exceptional.

https://rybar.ru/novyj-nalet-bla-vsu-na ... ny-rossii/

Vremyevskoye direction: a series of attacks by the Russian Armed Forces and clearing pockets in the fields near Bolshaya Novosyolka
January 8, 2025
Rybar

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In the Vremyevsk direction, Russian troops managed to achieve significant success in several areas.

The main events remain concentrated in the vicinity of Bolshaya Novosyolka , where Russian troops have expanded their zone of control in the area of ​​Novy Komar , as well as significantly cleared the fields to the east of Bolshaya Novosyolka and occupied a fairly large fortified area.

To the south of the settlement, fields and plantings were also occupied, and it was possible to reach the outskirts of Neskuchny . Apparently, after some time, either battles will begin for the settlement, or the enemy will leave it.

In parallel, attacks are underway in the fields to the west of Bolshaya Novosyolka and Vremyevka with the aim of widening and deepening the breakthrough wedge deep into the defense of the Ukrainian formations and further worsening the supply of the enemy remnants in Bolshaya Novosyolka .

https://rybar.ru/vremevskoe-napravlenie ... novoselki/

Kurakhovsky direction: a series of attacks by the Russian Armed Forces and advances in several areas
January 8, 2025
Rybar

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Russian troops continue to dislodge Ukrainian formations in several areas in the Kurakhovo direction .

The 114th separate mechanized brigade fighters liberated Shevchenko , and the unit's flag was raised over the settlement. Two large strongholds were partially occupied to the north, but a pocket with a Ukrainian presence remains between Petropavlovka and Shevchenko .

There are successes in the Slavyanka area , located to the north. Forest belts to the east and northeast have been occupied, and control has been established over about half of the settlement.

To the west of Kurakhovo , judging by the reports on the Internet, fighting for Dachnoye began yesterday . This is indirectly confirmed by footage of objective control from the enemy with strikes on Russian attack aircraft already on the western outskirts of the city directly on the administrative borders of Kurakhovo and Dachnoye .

Further south, Russian troops are advancing across the fields towards the sludge ponds northeast of Yantarny .

There were no attempts to enter Yantarnoye itself yesterday, but the situation is changing quite quickly. Activity of the Russian Armed Forces is also observed west of Maksimovka , and, according to our data, some time ago the fields north of Yasnaya Polyana were significantly cleared .

Taking into account the enemy’s loss of Kurakhovo and a considerable part of the field fortifications in the area, in the near future one can quite easily expect new advances “by inertia” and consolidation in the liberated territories of the DPR.

https://rybar.ru/kurahovskoe-napravleni ... uchastkah/

Aleksandro-Kalinovskoe direction: advancement of the Russian Armed Forces within the borders of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk)
January 8, 2025
Rybar

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At the end of last year and the beginning of January, Russian troops achieved significant successes within the borders of Dzerzhinsk ( Toretsk ) and practically broke through to the northwestern districts of the city. Based on the footage of objective control from the enemy, assault groups under drone strikes are already operating close to the western outskirts of the settlement.

After successes in the Khimkolonka microdistrict and the 12th district, Russian troops drove the enemy out of most of the Fomikha microdistrict . The presence of attack aircraft was noted in the area of ​​Gorsky Lane 4 and north of Trudovaya Street , as well as on the approaches to the local motor depot.

Considering that the presence of units of the Russian Armed Forces was noted both to the west and to the east of waste heap No. 10 , it also came under the control of Russian troops.

At the same time, thanks to objective monitoring footage, it was possible to find out that Russian troops had come very close to the territory of the Toretskaya mine , the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces where they had previously been subjected to air raids on numerous occasions.

It and its waste heaps remain under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for now. Taking them will open the way to the neighboring villages of Krymskoe and Dachnoe . The latter has long been a key place from which supplies were sent to the Ukrainian garrison in Dzerzhinsk . Successes at the Fomikha and No. 12 waste heaps will allow Russian troops to reach the northern outskirts of the city.

At the moment, the Ukrainian formations have the last fortified positions in the settlement in the area of ​​the former repair base and at the repair and mechanical plant. Thus, currently about a third of the settlement remains under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

https://rybar.ru/aleksandro-kalinovskoe ... -toreczka/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Jan 10, 2025 12:26 pm

Prolong the war
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/01/2025

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“I am really sure that all other members, and I hope also the United States, are ready to continue supporting Ukraine,” said Kaja Kallas, head of the European Union’s diplomacy, yesterday during her participation in the Rammstein summit held in Germany, which will be the last before the change of government in the United States. The arrival of Donald Trump, with his unpredictable style and still no plan on what to do with Ukraine, continues to be the great concern of European countries, which are struggling to find a way to maintain the status quo and guarantee that Kiev can continue to maintain the military path as the only possible solution to the conflict.

At the meeting, Lloyd Austin, the outgoing Secretary of Defense, announced what will be the last military assistance package of the Biden era, another $500 million, words that drew applause from Zelensky, Rustem Umerov, Andriy Ermak and Boris Pistorius, who flanked the American representative at the time. Referring to his meeting with Austin, the Ukrainian president wrote that “the conversation discussed the situation on the battlefield, the role of drones in this phase of the war, and Ukraine’s needs for defense from various types of unmanned aerial vehicles. The strengthening of Ukraine’s air defense and the prospects for providing additional air defense systems, including through cooperation with other countries, were also discussed.”

As usual, Zelensky did not specify what is happening on the front, where the situation is not improving for Ukraine. After the loss of Kurajovo and Shevchenko, the town closest to the country's most important lithium deposit (and which should be a preferred objective for defense), kyiv is about to lose Toretsk-Dzerhinsk, in the Gorlovka area, until now the part of the front where Russia has encountered the most difficulties in its advance. And despite the fact that the Ukrainian president described the Kursk operation as "the most important victory of this war," the front is on the verge of collapse for Ukraine in the northwestern part of the region and even in the areas where kyiv troops began their offensive last weekend, progress is minimal. It is evident that the importance of the Kursk territories lies in their foreseeable use as a bargaining chip and a tool of pressure in the event of negotiations and not as a way to achieve military objectives on the front. Kiev does not hide the fact that it intends to achieve what it still calls a just peace - that is, to be able to impose the conditions of peace without any prior negotiation other than with its allies - by putting pressure on Russia, a task that, in part, falls to the allies.

In his message, Zelensky added that “Ukraine is grateful to the United States, to all the American people, and to the bipartisan and bicameral support that helps preserve our independence and protect lives in the fight against Russia’s criminal and unprovoked aggression,” a way of appealing to Congress to continue assistance in the war against the common enemy, a concern he shares with Kaja Kallas who, however, warned that “the European Union is also ready to assume this leadership if the United States is not willing to do so.” Despite the fact that he has already committed to not abandoning Ukraine, the shadow of European doubt falls on Trump, whose future special envoy for Ukraine has given himself 100 days to achieve a ceasefire, a scarcely realistic objective considering the difficulty of the mission, which will not even make its first contact until the new president takes office and the position of those who participate directly or indirectly in the conflict. Among them, due to its role as a supplier, is the European Union, which, through Kaja Kallas, insists that “the United States is not interested in Russia being the strongest force in the world”, a way of demanding that Washington continue to provide military assistance as it has done up to now.

Otherwise, Kallas wants to imply that the EU would compensate for the loss, although he does not provide any figures or plans for how this could be done. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which regularly updates data on military, humanitarian and financial assistance already delivered or committed for the future, between February 2022 and 31 October 2024, EU member states and institutions had made bilateral commitments worth 201.26 billion euros, of which 105.86 billion have already been delivered. In the division of tasks between the EU and the United States, Washington's role is to lead the way in military supplies, while Brussels and the European countries are primarily responsible for maintaining the state, which requires ongoing funding. This explains why, as of October, 53% of European funding had reached Ukraine, compared with 74% (88.3 billion euros) of the 118.98 billion euros promised by the United States, whose assistance must be quicker to cover the enormous military needs of the war. In the event of an absence or significant reduction in American funding, Brussels would have to compensate for these more than 100 billion euros and do so on a continuous and short-term basis, which would require a significant increase in military spending, a highly controversial issue that would require cuts in other areas.

Unlike his former vice-chancellor, who this week expressed his support for increasing military spending to 3.5% of GDP – far short of the 5% currently demanded by Donald Trump, but exactly the figure that, according to the British media, he is prepared to accept as a minimum – Olaf Scholz yesterday attacked the excessive increase. “This is a lot of money. And it actually means reducing other expenditure items by around 150 billion euros or debts of 150 billion euros a year, or a mixture of both. That is why I think it is better to focus on the path that NATO has long agreed on,” declared the German leader in reference to the increase to 2% that member countries agreed upon after the annexation of Crimea. The widespread increase in defence spending, which is taking place in all EU countries, has not, however, meant greater autonomy for the United States, whose role is, despite Kallas's words, essential if Brussels wants to maintain the war until Ukraine is in a position of strength in which it could impose terms on Russia.

Difficulties on the front and Russia’s greater military and economic strength force Ukraine to rely on its partners to achieve a better outcome in hypothetical negotiations. kyiv does not hide the fact that its main objective is to achieve a security arrangement. With no chance of a quick NATO membership and little chance of receiving security guarantees from the United States that would commit Washington to come to Ukraine’s defence if attacked, Zelensky has already moved on to the third option, demanding Western troops on Ukrainian territory. “Our goal is to find as many instruments as possible to force Russia to make peace,” he said, assuming that the presence of European troops on the ground would force Moscow to give in. "I think that this deployment of partner contingents is one of the best instruments," he added, without wanting to understand that no Western contingent of any importance will approach the front zone as long as there is no agreement with Russia that avoids the risk of a direct clash, something that would require real negotiations with the Russian side that kyiv and its allies are trying to avoid at all costs.

Perhaps the most candid statement of the day was Mark Rutte’s. “We have to do everything to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs in terms of training, in terms of equipment, to prolong the fight and prevail in it,” he admitted despite months of insistence that continuing military supplies to Ukraine was a way to shorten the war. Outnumbered militarily since the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, kyiv and its allies are not seeking the quick victory that Zelensky yearns for and which has proven not to be possible, but rather to prolong the war in search of an unlikely position of strength in the future.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/01/10/prolongar-la-guerra/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (from 4 to 10 January 2025)

From 4 to 10 January, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out 28 group strikes with high-precision weapons and attack unmanned aerial vehicles, which hit the infrastructure of military airfields, weapons depots, assembly shops, storage sites for attack unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as temporary deployment points of Ukrainian armed formations and foreign mercenaries.

— During the week, units of the North group of forces continued to destroy formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region.

Air strikes, unmanned aerial vehicles and artillery fire hit the manpower and equipment of the heavy mechanized, tank, six mechanized, four airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade and five territorial defence brigades. Repulsed two enemy counterattacks.

In the Kharkov direction, units of the mechanized and motorized infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and two territorial defense brigades were defeated.

Over the week, in the area of ​​responsibility of the North group of forces, the enemy's losses amounted to over 2,835 servicemen, 30 tanks and 122 combat armored vehicles. 117 vehicles and 30 field artillery guns were destroyed.

— The settlement of Nadiya was liberated by the active actions of units of the West group of forces.

The enemy lost up to 3,530 servicemen, a tank, 28 combat armored vehicles, including a Polish-made Rosomak armored personnel carrier, as well as US-made Bradley combat armored vehicles, seven M113 armored personnel carriers and five HMMWV armored vehicles. 52 vehicles, 46 field artillery guns, including 11 produced by NATO countries, ten electronic warfare stations and 15 ammunition depots were destroyed.

— As a result of decisive actions by units of the Southern group of forces, the settlement of Kurakhovo was liberated.

Over the week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 1,715 servicemen, three tanks, including a Leopard made in Germany, 12 armored combat vehicles, including two M113 armored personnel carriers made in the USA, 17 vehicles and 20 field artillery guns, including four Western-made ones. Six ammunition depots were destroyed.

— Units of the Center group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defenses and liberated the settlement of Dachenskoye.

The losses of the Ukrainian armed forces amounted to over 3,485 servicemen, 11 tanks, including four Leopards made in Germany, 40 combat armored vehicles, including three VAB armored personnel carriers made in France, as well as those made in the USA: six M113 armored personnel carriers, an M1117 armored personnel carrier, MaxxPro armored vehicles and an HMMWV. 41 vehicles and 34 field artillery pieces were destroyed.

— Units of the Vostok group of forces improved the position along the forward edge, defeated the formations of three mechanized, two airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade and three territorial defense brigades. Eight enemy attempts to regain lost positions were thwarted.

The enemy lost over 1,120 servicemen, a tank, six armored combat vehicles, including three US-made MaxxPro armored vehicles, 30 vehicles and 26 field artillery guns, eight of which were made in NATO countries.
Six ammunition depots were destroyed.

— Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, two infantry brigades, a coastal defense brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two territorial defense brigades and a National Guard brigade.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 685 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, including a US-made M113 armored personnel carrier, 44 vehicles, 11 field artillery guns, five electronic warfare stations, and six ammunition depots.

— Russian Aerospace Forces fighter aircraft shot down a MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Total Kievan Debellation
The Russo-Ukrainian War: Year 3
Big Serge
Jan 09, 2025

<snip>

Front Collapse in South Donetsk

What stands out immediately about the operational developments in 2024 is the marked shift of energies away from the axes of combat that had seen the most intense fighting in the first two years of the war. In a sense, this war has seen each of its fronts activate in a sequence, one after the other.

After the opening Russian offensive, which boasted as its signature success the capture of the Azov coastline and the linkup of Donetsk and Crimea, the action shifted to the northern front (the Lugansk-Kharkov axis), with Russia fighting a summer offensive which captured Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. This was followed by a pair of Ukrainian counteroffensives in the fall, with a thrust out of Kharkov which pushed the front back over the Oskil, and an operation directed at Kherson which failed to breach Russian defenses but ultimately resulted in a Russian withdrawal in good order over the Dnieper due to concerns over logistical connectivity and an over-extended front. Energies then pivoted yet again to the Central Donbas axis, with the enormous battle around Bakhmut raging through the spring of 2023. This was followed by the failed Ukrainian offensive on Russia’s defenses in Zaporozhia, in the south.

Just to briefly recapitulate this, we can enumerate several operational phases in the first two years of the war, occuring in sequence and each with a center of gravity in different parts of the front:

A Russian offensive across the land bridge, culminating in the capture of Mariupol. (Winter-Spring 2022, Southern Front)

A Russian offensive in Lugansk, capturing Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. (Summer 2022, Donets-Oskil front)

Ukrainian Counteroffensives towards the Oskil and Kherson (Autumn 2022, Oskil and Dnieper fronts)

The Russian assault on Bakhmut (Winter-Spring 2023, Central Front)

Ukrainian counteroffensive on the land bridge (Summer 2023)

Amid all of this, the front that saw the least movement was the southeastern corner of the front, around Donetsk. This was somewhat peculiar. Donetsk is the urban heart of the Donbas - a vast and populous industrial city at the center of a sprawling conurbation, once home to some 2 million people. Even if Russia succeeds in capturing the city of Zaporizhia, Donetsk will be by far the most populous of Ukraine’s former cities to come under Moscow’s control.

In 2014, with the outbreak of the proto-Donbas war, Donetsk was the locus of much of the fighting, with the airport on the city’s northern approach the scene of particularly intense combat. This made it rather strange, then, that at the start of 2024 the Ukrainian Army continued to occupy many of the same positions that they built a decade prior. As intense fighting ebbed and flowed along other sectors of front, Donetsk remained besieged by a web of powerfully held Ukrainian defenses, anchored by heavily fortified urban areas stretching from Toretsk to Ugledar. Early Russian attempts to crack this iron ring open, including an assault on Ugledar in the winter of 2023, met with failure.

The signature operational development of 2024, then, was the re-activation of the Donetsk front, after years of static combat. It is not an exaggeration to say that after years of coagulation, the Russian Army cracked this front wide open in 2024 and Ukraine’s long and strongly held network of urban strongpoints collapsed.

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Russian Progress on the Donetsk Axis in 2024

The year began with the AFU fighting for its fortress in Avdiivka, where it continued to block the northern approach to Donetsk. At the time, the typical argument that one heard from the Ukrainian side was that the Russian assault on Avdiivka was pyrrhic - that the Russians were capturing the city with exorbitantly costly “meat assaults” that would inevitably sap Russian combat power and exhaust their ability to continue the offensive.

With the full measure of the year behind us, we can definitively say that this is not the case. After the fall of Avdiivka, Russian momentum never seriously slackened, and in fact it was the AFU that appeared to be increasingly exhausted. The Ukrainian breakwater position at Ocheretyne (which had previously been their staging point for counterattacks around Avdiivka) was overrun in a matter of days, and by the early summer the frontline had been pushed out towards the approach to Pokrovsk.

The Russian thrust towards Pokrovsk led many to believe that this city was itself the object of Russian energies, but this was a misread of the operational design. Russia did not need to capture Pokrovsk in 2024 to render it sterile as a logistical hub. Simply by advancing towards the E50 highway, Russian forces were able to cut off Pokrovsk from Ukrainian positions to the south on the Donetsk front, and Pokvrovsk is now a frontline city subject to the full spectrum of overwatch from Russian drones and tube artillery.

By autumn, the Russian advance had put the Ukrainians in a severe salient, creating an unstable chain of positions in Selydove, Kurakhove, Ugledar, and Krasnogorivka. Russia’s advance from Ocheretyne onto the southern approach to Pokrovsk acted like an enormous scythe, isolating the entire southeastern sector of the front and allowing Russian forces to carve through it in the closing months of the year.

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Russian Operations in 2024, Donetsk Axis

This war has turned the word “collapse” into a devalued buzzword. We are told repeatedly that one side or the other is on the verge of collapse: sanctions will “collapse” the Russian economy, the Wagner uprising of 2023 proved that the Russian political system was “collapsing”, and of course we hear that exorbitant losses have one army or the other on the verge of total failure - which army that may be depends on who you ask.

I would argue, however, that what we saw from October 2024 onward represents a real occurrence of this oft-repeated and discarded word. The AFU suffered a genuine collapse of the southeastern front, with the forces positioned in their strongpoints too attrited and isolated to make a determined defense, Russian fires becoming too heavily concentrated in ever more compressed areas to endure, and no mechanized reserve in the theater available to counterattack or relieve the incessant Russian pressure.

Ukraine does maintain enough drones and concentrated fires to limit Russian a full Russian exploitation - that is, Russia is still not able to maneuver at depth. This gave the Russian advance is particular stop-start quality, leapfrogging from one settlement and fortress to the other. More generally, Russia’s preference to use dispersed small-unit assaults limits the potential for exploitation. We have to emphasize, however, that Russian momentum on this axis has never seriously slackened since October, and many of the key Ukrainian positions were overrun or abandoned very quickly.

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Ugledar is a good example: the Russians began their final push toward the town on September 24. By September 29, the 72nd Mechanized Brigade began evacuating. By October 1, Ugledar was fully under Russian control. This was a keystone Ukrainian position put in a completely untenable position and it went down in a week. One could argue, of course, that Ugledar held out for years (how then can we say with a straight face that it was captured in a week), but this is precisely the point. In early 2023 Ugledar (with the help of artillery stationed around Kurakhove) successfully repelled a multi-brigade Russian attack in months of heavy fighting. By October 2024, the position was completely untenable and was abandoned almost immediately when attacked.

The Ukrainians did no better trying to hold Kurakhove - previously a critical rear area that served as both a logistical hub and a base of fire for supporting (former) frontline strongpoints like Ugledar and Krasnogorivka. Kurakhove, now under full Russian control, will in turn serve as a base of support for the ongoing Russian push to the west towards Andriivka.

Taking the state of the front holistically, the AFU is currently holding two severe salients at the southernmost end of the line - one around Velyka Novosilka, and another around Andriivka. The former is likely to fall first, as the town has been fully isolated by Russian advances on the flanks. This is not a Bakhmut-like situation, where roads are described as “cut” because they are under Russian fire - in this case, all of the highways into Velyka Novosilka are cut by physical Russian blocking positions, making the loss of the position only a matter of waiting for the Russians to assault it. Further north, a more gentle and less strongly held salient exists between Grodivka and Toretsk. With Toretsk now in the final stages of capture (Ukrainian forces now hold only a small residential neighborhood on the city’s outskirts), the front should level here as well in the coming months.

This leaves the Russians more or less in full control of the approaches to Kostyantinivka and Pokrovsk, which are in many ways the penultimate Ukrainian held positions in Donetsk. Pokrovsk has already been bypassed several miles to the west, and the map portends a re-run of the typical Russian tactical methodology for assaulting urban areas - a methodical advance along the wings of the city to isolate it from arterial highways, followed by an attack on the city itself via several axes.

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The coming months promise continued Russian advances across this front, in a continuation of what can only be regarded as the collapse of a critical front on the part of the AFU. The Russian Army is advancing to the western border of Donetsk oblast and will ferret the Ukrainians out of their remaining strongpoints at Velyka Novosilka and Andriivka, while pushing into the belly of Pokrovsk. At no point since the fall of Avdiivka have the Ukrainians demonstrated the ability to seriously stymie Russian momentum along this 75 mile front, and the ongoing dissipation of Ukrainian combat resources indicates that little will change in this regard in 2025.

Toehold: The Incredible Shrinking Kursk Salient

Throughout the autumn of 2024 and these early months of winter, as Ukrainian forces were dug out of their dense web of fortified positions in the southern Donbas, their comrades continued to stubbornly hold on to their position in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The basic shape of Ukraine’s offensive into Kursk is by now well known - billed by Kiev as a gambit to change the psychological trajectory of the war and strike a prestige blow to Russia, the Ukrainian attack had early momentum after achieving initial strategic surprise, but quickly faltered after Ukrainian columns ran into effective Russian blocking positions on the highways out of Sudzha. Efforts to force the roads through Korenovo and Bolshoe Soldatskoe were defeated, and the Ukrainian grouping was left holding on to a modest salient around Sudzha, jutting out into Russia.

Throughout the autumn, Russian counterattacks have focused on chiseling away at the base of the Ukrainian salient - forcing the Ukrainians out of Snagost and pushing them away from Korenovo. The progress here has been incremental, but significant, and by the start of January the “neck” of the Ukrainian salient had been compressed down to a little over nine miles wide, after their initial penetration in the summer had forced a breach of over twenty miles. All told, Ukraine has lost about 50% of the territory that they grabbed in August.

The Russian pressure on the flanks of the salient have amplified many of the qualities that make this position wasteful and dangerous for the AFU. There is limited road connectivity for Ukrainian forces - a problem amplified by the rollback from Snagost, which cost them access to the highway running from Korenovo to Sumy. Apart from a few circuitous side roads, Ukrainian forces only have a single highway - the R200 route - to run material and reinforcements into the pocket, which allows Russian forces to surveil their lines of communication and conduct effective interdiction strikes. The compression of the pocket also greatly narrows the targeting area for Russian drones, tube artillery, and rocketry, and creates more condensed and saturating bombardment.

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Despite the fact that this position has been profoundly unproductive for Ukraine - being steadily rolled back and having no synergy with other, more critical theaters - the same grouping of Ukrainian units remain here, fighting in a steadily more compressed space. Even more baffling, the Ukrainian grouping consists largely of premiere assets - Mechanized and Air Assault brigades - that could have contributed meaningfully as a reserve in the Donbas over the last three months.

On January 5, there was a surprise in the form of a renewed Ukrainian attack out of the salient. The internet of course jumped to the conclusion that the AFU was going back over to some sort of general offensive posture in Kursk, but the reality was very underwhelming - something like a battalion sized assault up the axis towards Bolshoe Soldaskoe, which got a few kilometers up the road before it ran out of steam. Ukrainian efforts to jam Russian drones were stymied by the increasing ubiquity of fiber-optic systems, and the Ukrainian attack collapsed within a day.

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Kursk Salient - General Situation, January 2025

The tactical particulars of the Ukrainian attack are interesting, and there’s ongoing speculation as to its purpose - perhaps it was intended to cover a rotation or withdrawal, to improve tactical positions on the northern edge of the salient, or for inscrutable propaganda purposes. However, these specifics are rather unimportant: attacking out the end of the salient (that is, trying to deepen the penetration into Russia) does nothing to reverse Ukraine’s problems in Kursk. These problems are first, on the tactical level, that the salient has been greatly compressed on the flanks and continues to narrow, and on the strategic level the willful expenditure of valuable mechanized assets on a front that does not impact the critical theaters of the war. More simply, Kursk is a sideshow, and it is a sideshow that has gone wrong even within its own operational logic.

One thing that has been of endless interest, of course, have been the continued rumors of North Korean troops fighting in Kursk. Western intelligence agencies have been adamant about the presence of North Koreans in Kursk. Some people are predisposed to instinctively disbelief everything that western officialdom says - while I think some skepticism is warranted, I do not automatically assume that they are lying. One recent report lays out what would seem to be a plausible version of this story: that the idea actually originated in Pyongyang, not Moscow, and that a modest number of Korean troops (perhaps 10,000) are embedded with Russian units. The presumption here is that the Koreans hatched the idea as a way to gain combat experience, with the Russians in turn getting auxiliary forces, though of questionable combat effectiveness.

However, it is worth noting that this is not nearly as important as it has been made out to be. Much has been made of the idea that the North Korean presence proves some sort of Russian state of desperation, but this is fairly silly on its face - with more than 1.5 million active personnel in the Russian military, 10,000 Korean troops in Kursk represents a paltry appendage. More importantly, there has been an attempt to portray the North Korean contingent as a major departure point in the war. In particular, the formulation “North Korean troops in Europe” has been used to conjure cold war imagery of communist despotism clawing at the free world.

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The point, however, is that North Korean troops are presumed specifically to be in Kursk, which is in Russia. This is linked, of course, to the recently concluded mutual defense agreement signed between Moscow and Pyongyang. By attacking into Kursk - widening the front into prewar Russian territory - Ukraine created a defensive combat task for Russia which triggers the possibility of military assistance from North Korea. However much one may wish to link the Korean contingent to Russia’s dreaded “war of aggression”, the force in Kursk is very objectively engaged in the defense of Russian territory, and that makes it possible for Russia to use auxiliary forces - including conscripts and the troops of its allies - to fight there.

Ultimately, then, the presence of North Koreans in Kursk is interesting, but perhaps not very important after all. These troops are not in Ukraine (even under the most maximal definition of the Ukrainian territorial unit), they are not carrying the primary combat load, and they are unequivocally not the problem that the AFU is facing in Kursk. The “big problem” for Ukraine, very simply, is not the presence of some amorphous Korean horde dedicated to spreading Glorious Juche to Europe - it is the loitering of large grouping of their own precious mechanized brigades in a compressed salient, far far away from the Donbas, where they are greatly needed.

Scraping the Barrel: AFU Force Generation
I think it is well understood, of course, that Ukraine faces severe manpower constraints relative to Russia, both in terms of the raw totals of male biomass available - with roughly 35 million fighting aged males in Russia against perhaps 9 million in prewar Ukraine - but also in terms of its capacity to mobilize them.

Ukraine’s mobilization scheme is hampered by both widespread draft evasion (with willingness to serve decreasing as the war has stretched on) and a stubborn unwillingness to draft younger men, aged 18-25. Ukraine is structurally burdened with a deeply imbalanced population structure: there are roughly 60% more Ukrainian men in their 30’s than in their 20’s. Given the relative scarcity of young men, particularly in their early 20's, the Ukrainian government rightly views this 18-25 year old cohort as a premium demographic cohort that it is loathe to burn away in combat. Given the ubiquity of draft evasion, the refusal to mobilize younger males, and the corruption and inefficiency characteristic of the Ukrainian government, it should come as no surprise when Ukrainian mobilization falters.

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Russia, in contrast, has both a much larger pool of potential recruits and a more efficient apparatus for mobilization. In contrast to Ukraine’s scheme of compulsory conscription, Russia has relied on generous sign-on bonuses to solicit volunteers. Russia’s incentive system, to this point, has provided a steady stream of enlistments that has been more than enough to offset Russian losses. Without going too far into the various speculative estimates of Russian casualties, it is widely acknowledged by western military leadership that Russia has significantly more personnel now than it did at the start of the war.

All of that is to say: Ukraine faces a severe structural disadvantage in military manpower in the aggregate, which is exacerbated by the idiosyncrasies of the Ukrainian mobilization law, ameliorated slightly by the relatively low troop densities and the preponderant power of strike systems in this war.

The argument that I want to make here, however, is that Ukraine’s systemic problems matching Russian manpower have been exacerbated by several developments which specifically became prominent in 2024. In other words, 2024 can and should be marked as the year where Ukrainian manpower constraints became markedly and perhaps irretrievably worse due to specific decisions made in Kiev, and particular developments on the ground.

These are as follows:

The decision to expand the AFU’s force structure through the creation of the “15 series” brigades

The decision to deliberately widen the front and create additional demands for manpower by launching the incursion into Kursk

The stall out of Ukraine’s new mobilization program in the autumn

Accelerating problems with desertion in the AFU

We’ll run through these in order.

An army that is intaking new personnel has to decide between two possible allocations for them. New personnel can be used as replacements to replenish existing frontline units, or they can be used to expand the force structure by creating new units. That much seems fairly obvious, and ideally mobilization will exceed losses and make it possible to do both. Where armies face hard manpower constraints, however - that is, where losses are equal to or greater than intake of men, the decision to expand the force structure can have monumental consequences. The stereotypical example, of course, would be the late-war Wehrmacht, which created premiere new assets in the form of Waffen SS divisions, which received privileged access to recruits and equipment while regular army divisions in the line suffered from a trickle of replacements which could not keep up with losses.

Ukraine, with its garbled force structure, has created a mess through its own attempts to expand its force structure in the face of dwindling strength on the line. Late in 2023, the AFU announced intentions to form an entirely new grouping of brigades - the so-called “15 series”, given their designations as the 150th, 151st, 152nd, 153rd, and 154th Mechanized Brigades. This was followed in 2024 with the appending of the 155th Mechanized Brigade, which was to be trained and equipped in France.

Forming a new grouping of mechanized brigades is essential to the way that Ukraine is presenting its war. Because Ukraine still aims (at least on paper) to recapture all of its Russian held territory, there must always be the illusory possibility of a future offensive, and in order for that illusory possibility to remain, Ukraine must present itself as actively preparing for future offensive operations. Ukraine’s presentation of its own strategic animus - the idea that it is holding the front while it prepares to go back on the offensive - essentially locks it into a program of expanding its force structure.

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The problem for Ukraine is that the immense pressure on the front makes it essentially impossible for them to properly husband resources the way they would like. Properly training and equipping half a dozen fresh mechanized brigades and holding them in reserve would be very helpful, but they cannot really do this in light of the demands for personnel at the front. These brigades instead become “paper formations” that have a bureaucratic existence, while their organic assets are pulled apart and sucked into the front - stripped down into battalion or company sized elements that can be plugged into sectors of need on the frontline. At the moment, none of the 15 series brigades have seen action as organic units - that is, fighting as themselves.

The French-trained 155th brigade forms a useful example. Originally designed as an overweight formation of some 5800 men, equipped with premiere European equipment, the brigade was hemorrhaging personnel from the start, with Ukrainian sources reporting that some 1700 men - many of them forcibly conscripted off the streets of Ukraine - deserted the unit during training and formation. A collapse in the brigade’s leadership - with its commander resigning - made matters even more complicated, and the formation’s first action around Pokrovsk went badly. Now, the brigade is being dismembered, if not formally disbanded, with personnel and vehicles being stripped down and parceled out to bolster neighbor units.

The decision to allocate personnel to new mechanized brigades (though given stocks of armored vehicles it is questionable whether those designations mean anything) does not necessarily change Ukraine’s manpower balance in the aggregate, but it is certainly an inefficient way to use personnel. To return again to the 155th brigade, one problem noted by Ukrainian analysts was the fact that much of the brigade was formed whole cloth from forcibly mobilized personnel, without a proper cadre of veterans and experienced NCOs - some 75% of the brigade, it turns out, had been mobilized less than two months before arriving in France for training. This fact was certainly instrumental in the mass desertions and the brigade’s poor combat effectiveness.

Given Ukraine's constraints, the best course of action would undoubtedly be to allocate new personnel and equipment as replacements to build out the depleted veteran brigades on the front lines, plugging in replacements around existing veterans and officers. Kiev, however, prizes the prestige that comes from force expansion and the “shiny new toy” factor of new formations equipped with scarce and valuable equipment like Leopard tanks. These new brigades, though billed as premiere assets, clearly have lower combat effectiveness than existing formations, given their lack of experience, shortage of veteran officers, and low unit cohesion.

The simple reality, however, is that replacements for existing brigades are nowhere close to keeping up with burn rates. Frontline units have complained of increasingly dire infantry shortages for months, with some brigades on the Pokrovsk axis reporting that they are down to less than 40% of their allocated infantry complements.

In short, Ukraine’s decision to embark on force expansion in the face of significant manpower shortages has exacerbated the problem - both starving veteran units of replacements and concentrating newly mobilized personnel into combat ineffective formations that lack a veteran core, experienced officers, and vital equipment. They have tried, belatedly, to square this circle by parceling out new formations to backstop line brigades, but this is less than ideal - it leads to a patchwork order of battle with lower unit cohesion and a fragmented defense.

Unfortunately, this comes precisely as Ukraine has created additional self-imposed strains on its resources, in particular through its incursion into Kursk. At the moment, elements of at least seven mechanized brigades, two marine infantry brigades, and three air assault brigades are stationed on the Kursk axis. Without going too far into the weeds rehashing Ukraine’s operation here, it’s important to remember that Ukraine - facing extreme pressures on its force generation - voluntarily chose to widen the front into a secondary theater, diverting scarce assets and reducing its own ability to economize forces.

In summary, Ukraine has made deliberate decisions to widen the front and expand its force structure, both of which have been decidedly detrimental to its efforts to economize personnel. This comes precisely as a 2024 effort to ramp up mobilization has come off the rails.

Ukraine’s mobilization program suffered from a variety of defects, including gaps and errors in its databases and endemic corruption and bureaucratic inefficiency. Laws passed in 2024 aimed to rectify many of these problems, including through the rollout of an app that would allow draft-eligible men to register and check their status without having to visit recruitment offices. It appeared that matters had come to a head when Zelensky fired several recruitment chiefs in 2023, and there was a real sense of urgency. After some signs of initial promise, it is clear that this intensified mobilization drive has faltered over the autumn and early winter.

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There were initially signs of optimism for Ukraine - in the first month after the new mobilization law was passed, there was a surge and the army enlisted 30,000 new personnel. However, by the end of the summer this initial burst of enlistments had faded, and mobilization was again running behind the AFU’s losses. An October briefing from the Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that enlistments had already declined by 40% after the brief surge brought on by the new mobilization law. Around the same time, officials in Odessa (Ukraine’s third largest city) admitted that they were running at only 20% of their mobilization quota.

The problems are myriad. The new mobilization law led to some initial improvements but has ultimately failed to resolve problems with draft evasion, bureaucratic miscues remain endemic, and employers desperate to retain workers filed an avalanche of employment related draft deferments. Unable to sustain the initial surge of enlistments, Ukraine faces a looming manpower crisis.

Furthermore, Ukraine’s continued inability to provide either demobilization or timely rotations means that mobilized personnel face the prospect of indefinite service on the frontlines. This is obviously bad for morale, with soldiers contemplating the possibility of years of uninterrupted service, and this in turn drives the desertions that are becoming a mounting problem for the AFU. Some reports indicate that as many as 100,000 Ukrainian troops have deserted by this point, many no doubt driven by the psychological and physical strains of endless combat with no prospect of rotation.

A deadly feedback loop is now at work, with the lack of rotations and the shortage of replacements synergizing to accelerate the burn of Ukrainian personnel. The AFU is unable to regularly rotate units out of combat, and the inadequate flow of replacements causes frontline infantry complements to wear thin. Unable to rotate or reinforce, line brigades resort to cannibalization - scraping support personnel like mortar teams, drivers, and drone operators to fill out frontline positions. This further accelerates losses as brigades fight with thinned out support and fires elements, and makes Ukrainian men more unwilling to enlist - because there is now no guarantee that becoming a drone operator, for example, will save one from being sent to a frontline trench eventually.

Where does this leave us? Ukraine continues to dispose of a very large force, with more than a hundred brigades and hundreds of thousands of men under arms. This force, however, is both substantially outnumbered by the Russian army and in a clear trend of decay. Despite a highly touted attempt to reinvigorate the mobilization apparatus in 2024, the intake of new personnel is clearly too low to offset losses, and the heavy lifting formations in critical sectors of front have seen their strength - particularly in the infantry complements - decline, in some cases to critical levels.

The failure of Ukraine’s 2024 mobilization program has coincided with several strategic choices which have exacerbated manpower concerns - specifically the decision to embark on a program of force expansion even as the AFU voluntarily extended its commitments by opening a new secondary front in Kursk. In other words, Ukraine’s mobilization falls short of its force requirements, and the AFU has also made choices that sabotaged its ability to economize. Units are ground up, replacements come in a paltry trickle, rotations are late or absent, units cannibalize themselves, and angry and weary men desert.

It’s not at all clear that this will lead to a “breaking point”, in the sense that people are anticipating. Ukrainian strike capabilities and the Russian preference for dispersed, leapfrogging assaults limit the potential for grand breakthroughs and exploitation. However, what we saw over the past three months on the southern Donetsk axis offers a preview of what awaits: an exhausted force being steadily rolled back, dug out of its strongpoints, and mauled - covering its retreat with drones but losing position after position. The line holds, until it doesn’t.

(Much more at link.)

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/total-k ... ebellation

Top of the line military analysis.

*******

Medley report: Israel's rising threat, Ukraine revelations, and the 'Age of Anti-Westphalian DarkMaga'
Simplicius
Jan 08, 2025

<snip>

Ukraine

Another new WaPo article gives a shocking statistic:

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https://archive.ph/tDk4l

Here’s the blurb gaining traction:

Ukraine is also losing troops at a rate far beyond what it can sustain and continue fighting. The official casualty estimate of 400,000 killed or wounded is considered a vast undercount. Thousands of exhausted Ukrainian soldiers are deserting the front lines. Only last year, Ukraine began drafting men 25 and older; the previous age was 27. Some, including U.S. lawmakers, have been pressing Ukraine to start drafting men as young as 18, but President Volodymyr Zelensky has so far resisted, concerned about decimating the next generation and hampered by a lack of equipment to arm new troops.

So firstly they confirm Ukraine is not only experiencing a net loss of troops, but one characterized as going “far beyond” what it can sustain. We can assume this means a major net loss per month. Recall WaPo’s last article confirmed 200k total mobilized troops for 2024—this therefore serves as confirmation that Ukraine has lost in excess of 200k troops in 2024.

But the next admission is the big one, and demonstrates how the West is finally coming around to admitting Ukraine’s catastrophic casualty figures:

The official casualty estimate of 400,000 killed or wounded is considered a vast undercount.

So not only is 400k casualties an undercount, it’s a vast undercount. How vast are we talking? 600k? 800k? 1 million? It seems the official Western narratives lately comes closer and closer to aligning with the Russian MOD figures.

But here’s the real kicker. At the same time, notorious Verkhovna Rada MP Oleksiy Goncharenko made this quite thought-provoking observation—read that very carefully:

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Recall just a day ago in the new Lex Fridman interview Zelensky stated the AFU has 980,000 people. Yet Syrsky recently stated Russia has 700,000 men in Ukraine. At the same time, frontline Ukrainian officers constantly grouse Ukraine is outnumbered nearly “5 to 1” in many key areas.

What is going on here?

Goncharenko finally unbosoms this monumental fraud by suggesting these phantom troops are all dead.



Trump has now reportedly said he “hopes” to end the Ukraine war in six months. No longer “I will stop the war in 24 hours” but now “I hope to stop it in six months”—quite the downgrade, to say the least, and a big reality check to boot.

In fact, Trump himself appears to now be slowly acclimatizing to the reality that Russia is in the driver’s seat and has no reason to parley with him any time soon.

The situation has gotten so bleak that the dark lord himself, Robert Kagan, has penned a breathless new cry of alarm in the Atlantic:

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https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... war/681228

The piece starts off as dire as can be, predicting the fall of Ukraine within twelve months:

Vice-president Elect J. D. Vance once said that he doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine. We will soon find out whether the American people share his indifference, because if there is not soon a large new infusion of aid from the United States, Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.

Recall, months ago when the globalist shills gabbed about Ukraine “losing”, they did so in a kind of winking way, still clutching the illusion Ukraine could keep most of its territorial integrity and sovereignty. But now the situation has turned truly catastrophic, read Kagan’s last line again:

It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.

That’s it—it’s game over and the elites know it. Ukraine stands to catastrophically collapse with Russia not merely overrunning “the Donbass”, but the entire BlackRock-owned mineral-rich ‘El-Dorado’.

The most fascinating dissonance here demonstrates how these globalists try to have their cake and eat it too—and lord knows Kagan loves his just desserts…

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You see, they’ve tried for a long time to sell us on Russia being keen for a ceasefire, yet simultaneously now admit that Ukraine faces total capitulation—how is that possible? A “battered” Russia in desperate need of a “time out” does not sync with a Russia with its foot on Ukraine’s throat, one finishing blow away from swallowing the country whole.

But alas, today’s theme is: they’re finally all coming around. It’s a time of revelations, and a time of throwing caution and duplicity to the wind, because there’s simply no time left—Ukraine’s globalist curators know it’s the final stretch.

Trump appears to sense the intractability of it all, and that America is likely powerless to stop the coming Russian coup de grace. As such, in a preemptive move to fortify his presidential legacy, Trump appears to be building up a reserve of legacy-defining bold acquisitions, the likes of which will overshadow even the “catastrophic” American humiliation in Ukraine.

(Much more at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/med ... ing-threat

******

NewsX World (India): Russian Troops Overrun Kurakhove

Yesterday’s panel discussion hosted by broadcaster News X (ITV India) demonstrates that the producers of this news program are in the process of finding their unique place in Indian media. They are now presenting experts holding contradictory positions on the nature of the Russia-Ukraine war and on its likely outcome.

Readers of these pages will not be surprised by my on-air observations. However, I strongly recommend that they also watch the Indian diplomat who spoke just after me. Her thinking is refreshing and offers hope that India will come down off the fence and be more wholeheartedly dedicated to BRICS.



https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2025/01/09/ ... kurakhove/

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Vremyevskoye direction: a series of attacks by the Russian Armed Forces and clearing pockets in the fields near Bolshaya Novosyolka
January 8, 2025
Rybar

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In the Vremyevsk direction, Russian troops managed to achieve significant success in several areas.

The main events remain concentrated in the vicinity of Bolshaya Novosyolka , where Russian troops have expanded their zone of control in the area of ​​Novy Komar , as well as significantly cleared the fields to the east of Bolshaya Novosyolka and occupied a fairly large fortified area.

To the south of the settlement, fields and plantings were also occupied, and it was possible to reach the outskirts of Neskuchny . Apparently, after some time, either battles will begin for the settlement, or the enemy will leave it.

In parallel, attacks are underway in the fields to the west of Bolshaya Novosyolka and Vremyevka with the aim of widening and deepening the breakthrough wedge deep into the defense of the Ukrainian formations and further worsening the supply of the enemy remnants in Bolshaya Novosyolka .

https://rybar.ru/vremevskoe-napravlenie ... novoselki/

Pokrovsk direction: a series of local attacks by the Russian Armed Forces
January 9, 2025
Rybar

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In the Pokrovsky direction, Russian troops continue to gradually improve their positions south of the city.

Fighting continues in the area of ​​Lysovka , Shevchenko , Peschanoye and Volkovo , no significant changes in control zones are observed. Information that Russian assault groups have reached the outskirts of Zverevo has not yet been confirmed by objective control data, although it has not been refuted either.

Earlier, it was reported that Russian troops were advancing north of Vozdvizhenka , some sources even stated that the Mirnogorod - Konstantinovka highway had been cut. However, there is currently no information on whether Russian attack aircraft managed to hold out there.

There are also battles in the area of ​​Solenoye and Novovasilyevka , and in Novolizavetovka and the forest belts to the north, Russian troops are advancing, taking up new positions.

To the south, Ukrainka was finally liberated and the battle for Yasenovo began .

Apparently, in the near future we can expect an intensification of military actions in the vicinity of Pokrovsk and, probably, Mirnograd .

However, one should not think that Russian troops will begin military operations in two large cities at once .

The supply lines will probably be cut first in the Kotlino area , where the forward positions of Russian troops are located just over a kilometre from the T-04-06 highway .

https://rybar.ru/pokrovskoe-napravlenie ... tak-vs-rf/

Google Translator

******

"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Jan 11, 2025 1:11 pm

Trump, sanctions against Russia and the United States' "backyard"
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/01/2025

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Still not quite sure how to respond to the openly imperialist rhetoric of the US president-elect, European countries continue to try to guess, in many cases without any material basis, what Donald Trump's plan will be once he takes office in nine days. It will then be when General Kellogg will begin his work to present a roadmap with which the Republican team will try to seek the start of a negotiation. The need to deny any problem and avoid speculation about a bad relationship with Donald Trump and his entourage has led Ukraine to announce that the delay in Keith Kellogg's visit to the country is due solely to current legislation, which prevents official trips before the inauguration. The delay is not, moreover, a concern for the Zelensky government, which since the conflict began almost eleven years ago has made the delay of negotiations its modus operandi . Diplomacy is the red line that Ukraine is trying not to cross, a position that it shares with its European allies and with the NATO leadership, who listen with concern to the words coming from Washington.

The countries of the European Union remain more concerned about Russian “hybrid threats” in the Baltic and about ensuring funding for Ukraine to continue fighting the war than about the interventionism announced by Donald Trump and the position in which the European continent is left. With his rhetoric on NATO and his insistence that the focus of foreign policy will be linked to the confrontation with China and economic protectionism, Donald Trump and his team had already anticipated a reduction in interest in Europe, a territory in which Washington is aware that there is no danger of the creation of an anti-hegemonic political or economic bloc that could overshadow the United States. The time when the former European powers formed a territory considered strategic is long gone. The subordination that the European Union as a whole has shown since the Russian invasion in 2022 makes it even more evident that the continent is now part of the sphere of influence of the United States, a territory with little autonomy of its own and which runs the risk of fulfilling the role of backyard that Washington has assigned to Latin America.

China's economic presence in trade and increasingly in infrastructure development means that the Western Hemisphere and the insistence on overthrowing or destroying progressive governments - considered socialist or communist by Trump's foreign policy - are once again a priority territory for the new president, who with his words has made it clear that there is no trace in his plans of the isolationism that was wrongly expected of him.

In his latest media appearance, Trump again insisted on the same themes as on previous occasions. Regarding Ukraine, the president-elect did offer a new headline: Vladimir Putin has expressed interest in a meeting that is being planned. The Ukrainian media even warned of the possibility of a trilateral meeting in which the Chinese president would also be present, a highly unlikely option, but whose proposal is in itself a threat to kyiv, which continues to insist on the need to isolate the Russian Federation politically, diplomatically and economically.

With the caution of someone who knows that the deal that will be offered cannot meet expectations, Russia has reacted coldly. The Kremlin has given weight to Trump's words, but has called for caution. Perhaps Moscow now understands that the security issue will not be resolved even if negotiations take place. Too many members of Trump's entourage have mentioned the idea of ​​a ten-year moratorium on Ukraine's accession to NATO, an option that does not solve the problem that Russia went to war over. Moscow also has the experience of the last three decades, especially the years of the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc, when Mikhail Gorbachev was unable to get the promises of not expanding the Alliance to the east put into a written document.

Words are carried away by the wind, but sometimes they are enough to reinforce preconceived ideas, something that is currently happening in European capitals. Donald Trump's words admitting to understanding Russian concerns about NATO expansion have acted as a catalyst for an already existing concern, that of the possibility of abandoning Ukraine. The continuation of the war, an option favoured by European countries and NATO, does not only depend on maintaining funding, although that is the first priority of Brussels and the Alliance's allies. Kaja Kallas has suggested that European countries would be able to withstand the withdrawal of US assistance, although she does not explain how she would finance the costs of almost doubling their contribution to the war.

Maintaining or increasing economic and military assistance to Ukraine is only part of the economic aspect of the conflict, which also depends on undermining Russia's ability to finance its own war effort. A dozen sanctions packages have succeeded in seizing and blocking around $300 billion in Russian public and private assets, triggering spirals of inflation that the Central Bank is struggling to contain, and, above all, creating an invisible wall in continental relations, a break in direct economic relations that may not be recovered for decades. European countries have accepted the possibility of indirectly acquiring Russian products that they cannot replace, even if this has to be done at a higher cost. Russia's need to maintain market share produces the need for exports to be made at deep discounts - which the mediating countries then convert into huge profits - thus reducing Russian revenues compared to what it earned before the war. Although they have not succeeded in destroying the Russian economy, preventing military production or forcing Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, sanctions remain a central element of Western policy of support for Ukraine.

“EU officials are scrutinising hundreds of executive orders and sanctions imposed by US President Joe Biden amid growing concerns that Donald Trump will roll them back, potentially jeopardising foreign relations and trade. Brussels is concerned that Trump will try to undo his predecessor’s decisions simply because Biden took them, without much regard for the impact of such measures on European allies,” wrote the Financial Times yesterday in an article that shows the concern of European countries in the face of the absolute uncertainty posed by Donald Trump. The words and actions of the members of the foreign policy team of the incoming Republican administration do not point to the withdrawal of sanctions, but even to their increase. This is the case of Mike Waltz, who in an appearance on the American public radio NPR on the eve of the elections specifically mentioned removing Russian liquefied gas from the market. There is no material basis for European countries to foresee a possible unilateral withdrawal of sanctions as a gesture of goodwill to Russia to encourage it to negotiate. It is not even likely that Trump will revoke the US permission for Ukraine to use Western missiles against Russian territory. Europe's concern is not a matter of pre-planning for a contingency, but rather the display of the impotence of someone who knows that they are no longer taken into account and that their opinion will not be asked.

“It will be a strong blow to the Russian economy. We are waiting,” Andriy Ermak wrote on social media yesterday, anticipating the announcement of new sanctions that would be made public hours later. It was foreseeable that the package would focus on the Russian energy sector, a competitor of American oil and gas and, therefore, a favourite with the entourage of the man who will be president in just over a week.

The Biden administration on Thursday unveiled the latest package of military assistance to Ukraine, which it complemented yesterday with what will possibly be the last sanctions against the Russian Federation before the end of the Democratic mandate. Despite Ermak's attempt to present the package as a great victory for Ukraine and also for the "Ermak-McFaul group", the lobbying initiative he leads with the former US ambassador to Russia, there is no major change in the announcement. "The sanctions affect more than 400 individuals and organizations in the Russian energy sector that directly or indirectly provide funding to the military machine," writes Ermak himself, without mentioning that similar acts have not been sufficient to achieve the objectives that the West hoped to achieve with the sanctions. In addition to trying again to sanction the Russian ghost fleet that transports Russian oil on old ships purchased on the market these years and targeting the companies that insure it, "the entire energy sector of the Russian economy has been identified as harmful activities, which will allow sanctions to be imposed on any person or company working in this field." Despite the fire emoji used by Andriy Ermak, this is just the umpteenth attempt by European countries to believe that the market is entirely dominated by their allies.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/01/11/31321/

Google Translator

*******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of repelling the attempted invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the territory of the Russian Federation in the Kursk Region (as of January 11, 2025)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to defeat the formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk Region.

- Units of the North group of forces defeated formations of a tank, two mechanized, two airborne assault brigades and two territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Viktorovka, Kositsa, Kurilovka, Lebedevka, Malaya Loknya, Nikolaevka, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Novaya Sorochina and Pogrebki. Nine enemy counterattacks were repelled . - Strikes by operational-tactical , army aviation and artillery fire hit enemy manpower and equipment in the areas of the settlements of Bogdanovka, Bondarevka, Viktorovka, Goncharovka, Guevo, Zaoleshinka, Kazachya Loknya, Kruglenkoye, Kubatkin, Lebedevka, Loknya, Martynovka, Makhnovka, Melovoy, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Nikolsky, Oleshnya, Rubanshchina, Sverdlikovo, Staraya Sorochina, Sudzha, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Yuzhny, as well as Basovka, Belovody, Zhuravka, Obody and Yunakovka in the Sumy region. - Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 240 servicemen, two infantry fighting vehicles, an armored combat vehicle , four cars, four mortars and an electronic warfare station were destroyed. - In total, during the military operations in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 50,840 servicemen, 296 tanks, 224 infantry fighting vehicles , 161 armored personnel carriers, 1,521 armored combat vehicles, 1,445 vehicles, 353 artillery pieces, 44 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including 13 HIMARS and six MLRS made in the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport and loading vehicles, 91 electronic warfare stations, 13 counter-battery radars, four air defense radars, 29 units of engineering and other equipment, including 15 engineering obstacle clearing vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit, as well as seven armored repair and recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle.

The operation to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces formations continues.

***

Colonelcassad
⚡️Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 11 January 2025)

- Units of the North group of forces in the Kharkov direction inflicted losses on formations of the mechanized and motorized infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Volchansk and Liptsy in the Kharkov region.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 35 servicemen, two vehicles and four artillery pieces.

- Units of the West group of forces improved their tactical situation. Defeat was inflicted on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a territorial defence brigade and a national guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Lozovaya, Zagoruykovka in the Kharkov region, Ivanovka and Torskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy's losses amounted to 365 servicemen, three armoured combat vehicles, three vehicles, six artillery pieces and a counter-battery radar station. Two ammunition depots were destroyed.

- Units of the "Southern" group of forces took up more advantageous lines and positions. Defeat was inflicted on formations of two mechanized, airmobile and airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Konstantinovka, Nikolaevka, Serebryanka and Predtechino of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 210 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, two pickups, a combat vehicle of the Grad multiple launch rocket system, three artillery pieces and an electronic warfare station.
Two ammunition depots were destroyed.

- As a result of decisive actions, units of the "Center" group of forces liberated the settlement of Shevchenko of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Defeat was inflicted on the manpower and equipment of three mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a National Guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Sribnoye, Alekseyevka, Grishino and Belitskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy lost up to 535 servicemen, a Leopard tank made in Germany, four armored combat vehicles, including two M113 armored personnel carriers made in the USA, three cars and five artillery pieces.

- Units of the Vostok group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defenses. Formations of the mechanized and tank brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a National Guard brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Velyka Novosyolka, Burlatskoye and Volnoye Pole of the Donetsk People's Republic. The

Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 185 servicemen, a tank, two armored combat vehicles, seven cars and four artillery pieces. An ammunition depot was destroyed.

- Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of two mechanized and an infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Blakytnoye, Primorskoye and Novoyakovlivka of the Zaporizhia region.

The enemy lost up to 70 servicemen, four vehicles and five artillery pieces.

- Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, energy facilities supporting the activities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the military-industrial complex, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and equipment in 146 areas.

- Air defense systems shot down five US-made HIMARS multiple launch rockets and 181 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

- Since the beginning of the special military operation, a total of 652 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 40,077 unmanned aerial vehicles, 590 anti-aircraft missile systems, 20,480 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,508 multiple launch rocket systems, 20,412 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 30,156 special military vehicles have been destroyed.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Where would we retreat to? Kurakhove lost

Kursk, Toretsk, Terny, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosylka. More encirclements. Anger at official silence over the loss of Kurakhove

Jan 08, 2025

Summary

Onto ongoing military events. As usual, the vast majority of territorial gains were in the Kurakhove-Pokrovsk area. On January 6, Russia’s ministry of defense announced it had taken full control of the city of Pokrovsk. While Ukrainian OSINT (DeepState) and military representatives (Khortitsya) didn’t confirm it at the time, they don’t deny that the vast majority of the city is under Russian control.

In the DeepState commentary I translate below from January 8, they are already criticizing official statements ignoring the occupation of the city. Perhaps it’s time for renewed tension between DeepState and the real state. According to Muchnoy Jugend, the Russians have already advanced 600 metres to the west of the city.

The other big ‘event’ of the week was some sort of half-hearted Ukrainian operation in the north of its Kursk salient in Russia on January 5. Given that the DeepState map shows that with only 630 square kilometers left, Ukraine has lost 50% of the 1230 square kilometers it (claimed to have) captured back in August, clearly it had to do something. Just as the affair began as a PR stunt, so it continues - it is quite obviously tied with ongoing talk of a Trumpian ceasefire and the incoming visit of Trump’s Ukraine rep Keith Kellogg.

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A Ukrainian column moves forward in the Kursk area, January 5. Seen through a Russian lens

But on January 7, Ukraine’s foreign minister stated that Kellogg’s visit has been cancelled, but that it will take place in ‘due time’. Clearly the new bosses in Washington haven’t been impressed. As you’ll see in my section on Kursk below, no wonder.

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Trump and Kellogg

The whole front

To begin with, here’s a January 8 map from deepstate covering today’s main areas (outside Kursk, which is far to the north). At the north, circled is Terny. Below is Chasiv Yar. Next, Toretsk. Then in the south, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Also, I don’t cover the part of the front further north, in the Kharkiv region, since there isn’t much change, though there does seem to be plenty of fighting. Ukraine seems to have quite powerful units stationed there that are able to beat off Russian advances, and the Russians seem to be concentrating most of their efforts on the below areas.

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Buniatov, January 1:

Key takeaways:
The war continues, our guys are in captivity, and the enemy is advancing.
Among our people, 20% care, 10% are enemies, and 70% are indifferent.


Buniatov, December 29:

Powerful battles are coming soon on the Kramatorsk front.
Prepare the FPVs and bombers, guys—we’re going to score a lot of "points."


Buniatov, January 5:

Despite enormous losses, the enemy continues to advance on the front and is using various methods to gather new reserves for its forces.

In 2024, following their crude strategy of "scrap metal" and "meat" assaults, they managed to capture territory equivalent to the size of four Kyivs, while suffering over 400,000 irrecoverable and sanitary losses (more than 100 soldiers per square kilometer) and losing over 12,500 units of heavy assault equipment.

If we do not develop the robotic component of our armed forces and train a professional army instead of relying on temporarily fit personnel, as seen in some of the current assault brigades, by the end of 2025, the enemy could reach the outskirts of Pavlohrad and Zaporizhzhia.


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Dnipro is Ukraine’s third largest city, Zaporizhzhia is also one of the country’s biggest. They also contain the most important remaining industrial and military-industrial assets. Both have a population of close to a million.

Kursk

To begin with, here’s a map of the territory captured in Kursk at its early September peak. Keep in mind that plenty of this territory (particularly the grey zone) was merely areas in which Ukrainian troops had been sighted, but was not stably controlled.

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And now, the present:

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Now, let’s have a look at Ukraine’s latest magnificent circus trick - it took place at the far north of the long Kursk salient. Hardly seems like a good idea, but who am I to say. It was never particularly clear how much they’d actually managed to take, and DeepState didn’t confirm anything, partly in the interests of operational secrecy.

Mannerheim’s Son, January 5:

First, this military telegram responded to Andriy Borysovych Yermak (Zelensky’s righthand man) triumphant post about the ‘good news in Kursk’:

If Andriy Borysovych's posts make you want to shoot yourself, you’re not alone.

>You’re sitting in Pokrovsk;

>Retreating for the fifth month in a row;

>FPV drones with fiber optics are flying overhead;

>The right flank, as usual, is somewhere far behind;

>The vehicle broke down;

>Kursk region, good news…

Gunshot.


Thoughts of a Frontliner, January 5:

On the Kursk direction, the faggots launched an offensive, involving more than 40 units of equipment.

DeepState, January 6:

Note to the reader: the blogger in exile is the highly popular ‘pro-Russian’ (not quite, but definitely pro-Trump) Ukrainian vlogger Anatoly Shariy. The comment quoted from an official source is Andriy Kovalenko of the government-run ‘Centre for the Countering of Disinformation’. Also, here’s a map of the villages mentioned - the nameless one is Leonidivka.

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In the Kursk region, the enemy is advancing on Mala Loknya, Sverdlikove, and Leonidivka.

Simultaneously, the Defense Forces are conducting assault operations. We will refrain from commenting for now. We need to wait for results, as the fighting continues.

The only question is—why is a blogger in exile in Spain announcing counteroffensive actions by the Armed Forces of Ukraine within 48 hours, specifying the exact location of the assault and nearly the precise timing?

On the other hand, the enemy continues to fill the information vacuum with footage of our equipment being hit north of Martynivka.

The sole comment from our official source (link) that "the enemy is shedding tears" has drawn laughter from professionals and military personnel alike. The enemy’s media is creating a perception of victory and exaggerating their achievements significantly, even though for six months they’ve been unable to reclaim their own territory in the Kursk region.

We advise against being swayed by emotional swings from our side and especially against seeking information from enemy resources.


And from January 7 to 8, a large chunk was retaken by the Russians on the eastern side:

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The north: Toretsk, Chasiv Yar

First, two maps of this section - first from December 28, then from January 8. As you can see, the changes aren’t particularly visible. That’s because this is one of the most fortified sections of the front, with fighting here essentially ongoing for the past 10 years.

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Buniatov, December 31:

Terny is quite further north, so it isn’t on the above map. You can see it on a map by clicking here.

In the Terny direction, the faggots made advances from the east and crossed previously dried-up ponds near Novosadove, having prepared in advance by destroying the dam.

Overall, the situation in this direction is relatively stable compared to Pokrovsk



Muchnoy Jugend, January 2:

Toretsk direction:
The enemy has managed to take control of most of the buildings south of Mine No. 10. As a result, the western part of the city is now under enemy control. The final battle for the northern outskirts will be for the Toretska Mine. The enemy is already building up forces to strike it and cut off all communications. Intense battles lie ahead, and it’s crucial to understand the real situation and act accordingly. If we turn a blind eye, we might end up with the Russians at our doorstep.

🇺🇦 Chasiv Yar is also facing difficulties:
The faggots are trying to cut off central areas from resupply, thereby pressuring the northern part and solidifying their hold completely. Reinforcements and additional support are urgently needed on this front, as our Cossacks are barely holding on. The enemy wouldn’t withstand an attack if we hit them from the flanks, and they wouldn’t expect it. However, they keep advancing relentlessly and expanding their control to prevent us from striking first! The soldiers would have already done this, but no order has been given to attack from the flanks!


(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... -kurakhove

******

Lord Robert Skidelsky: Why Is the UK So Invested in the Russia–Ukraine War?
January 9, 2025 natyliesb

By Lord Robert Skidelsky, The American Conservative, 1/1/25

Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election of November 2024 has shredded the liberal script about the Ukraine war. That script was to offer unconditional moral and material support for a Ukrainian victory, defined minimally as recovery of the invaded territories of Crimea and Donbass. In Britain, it was considered almost treasonable to suggest otherwise.

Even before Trump’s election, the script had subtly changed into “doing what it takes” to put Ukraine in the best possible bargaining position in peace talks with Russia. This shift recognized that, unless the level of Western support were massively beefed up, Ukraine faced imminent military defeat. In the face of military reverses and with no expectation of further military aid from the Biden administration, President Volodymyr Zelensky too has abandoned his maximalist position and now pins his hopes on diplomatic pressure to induce Russia to negotiate.

Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 22, 2022, I have been one of a handful of advocates in the UK of a negotiated peace. On March 3, 2022, I co-signed a letter to the Financial Times with the former British Foreign Secretary David Owen which urged NATO to put forward detailed proposals for a new security pact with Russia. On May 19, 2022, I called for the resumption of the “Ankara peace process” in the same paper. I didn’t then know that bilateral peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, hosted by the Turkish government, had been aborted by the visit of Britain’s then–prime minister, Boris Johnson, to Kyiv on April 6, promising Ukraine all the help it needed to go on fighting. There were several further peace calls by myself, sometimes in good company, in the next two and half years, with increasing emphasis on the danger of escalation unless peace were quickly secured. But the only front-line British politician who agreed with this line was Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform Party. From the non-NATO world came peace initiatives from China and Brazil.

Trump’s second coming will bring about a shift from a passive war policy to an active peace policy. This is bound to bring about a ceasefire, possibly by the spring. That the peace terms remain vague is less important than that the killing will stop. Once stopped it will not easily be restarted. The question is why it has taken so many hundreds of thousands of lives, killed and wounded on both sides, to reach this moment. And what lessons can we learn?

The most obvious lesson is the importance of diplomacy. All nations have their own story to tell. The clash of their stories can cause or inflame wars. It is the traditional task of diplomacy to reconcile conflicting stories so that like can live in peace with unlike. The Ukraine war resulted from the catastrophic failure of diplomacy—in fact the disappearance of the global class of diplomats—leaving the leaders of belligerent countries free to pursue their ambitions without accurate knowledge of others’ reactions. In the run up to the invasion of 2022, Putin’s pronouncements looked too much like sabre-rattling; the United States and its NATO allies made little effort to try to settle the security issue which lay at the heart of the conflict with Russia. After Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014, there was a complete breakdown of trust. Chancellor Angela Merkel is reported to have said to Vladimir Putin: Can you guarantee that you will not attempt to make further changes of borders? To which the Russian president is said to have replied: Can you guarantee that NATO will not expand further?

It is generally believed in the West that Putin’s stated fear of NATO’s eastward expansion was simply an excuse for Russia to try to regain lands it had lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union. This is too simple. For centuries Russia had seen these “lost lands”—the Baltic states, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia—as part of its empire’s shield against foreign invaders. Putin’s story is not just propaganda. Its roots are to be found in the mixture of 19th-century Russian nationalism and the geographic vulnerability of the Tsarist empire.

Most of us in the West simply cannot recognize in NATO the “encircling claws” of Borodin’s Prince Igor, or the “insidious enemy” of Prokofiev’s opera War and Peace. NATO, we insist, is a purely defensive organization; countries join to defend themselves against Russia, not to attack it. This, however, is not the general view of NATO in the world outside the alliance, where its extension is largely, though not universally, viewed as an extension of Western imperialism. The Russian Federation’s hostility to the eastward expansion of NATO has been the most consistent thread in its foreign policy in the quarter century since the collapse of the Soviet Union. How could we in the West, with the notable exception of diplomats like George Kennan and Henry Kissinger, not have understood that when Russia had regained strength this was one wrong it would seek to put right?

We have here two opposing stories, each with some claim to truth, and no diplomatic mechanism for reconciling them.

Britain has been Biden’s cheerleader in stoking the Russia–Ukraine war. We must turn to history to understand why. Modern Britain has never been truly “isolationist” because, until well into the 20th century, it had a world empire that needed defending. Outlining the principles of British foreign policy in 1852, the Foreign Secretary Lord Granville wrote that “it is the duty and the interest of this country, having possessions scattered over the whole world, and priding itself on its advanced state of civilization, to encourage moral, intellectual and physical progress among all other nations.” This self-image of Britain as both global policeman and mentor bred a conflict between the muscular and pacifist wings of British liberalism, with non-interventionists like John Bright and Richard Cobden arguing that it was free trade which would civilize the world and the interventionists saying that free trade was only possible in a world made civil by British power and British values. What is striking today is the collapse of that pacifist tradition

So, when Tony Blair, Britain’s Prime Minister said in Chicago in 1999 that “the spread of our values makes us more secure,” he was proclaiming a continuing mission of British foreign policy. The claim to the higher moral ground of democracy and human rights would justify attempts to spread western values to those areas that remained mired in dictatorship and autocracy. Arguably Britain’s most successful export was the export of its moral evangelism to the United States as America emerged from its isolationism.

Nevertheless, this historical story does not exhaust the causes of Britain’s exceptional belligerence.

One needs to add the shame of the British establishment over the Munich Agreement of 1938, by which Britain ceded the Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia to Hitler and thereby helped unleash the Second World War. One can hardly overstate the strength of Britain’s Munich reflex. Thus, when the Egyptian leader Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal in 1956, both Prime Minister Anthony Eden and the Labour leader Hugh Gaitskell were quick to compare him to Hitler. And the Tory MP Sir Robert Boothby provided the rationale for a military response, which reasoning also underlies the current British reaction to Putin: “If we were to allow him [Nasser] to get away with it, it would be a damaging blow to the whole concept of international law.” Where does the devil stop?

The comparison of Putin with Hitler comes from a sweeping generalization that sees democracy as the peaceful form of the state and autocracy as its warlike form. Against this we should counterpose the notably “realist” summary of historian A.J.P. Taylor: “Bismarck fought ‘necessary’ wars and killed thousands; the idealists of the twentieth century fought ‘just’ wars and killed millions.” It’s the idealists who are more likely to want to win at all costs, the autocrats who want to stop wars before their thrones crumble.

At some point genuine western admiration for Ukraine’s struggle for its independence has morphed into a proxy war against Russia, with only a tacit bow to Ukraine’s own best interests. The West’s promise of unconditional support for a Ukrainian victory undoubtedly prolonged the war by blinding Ukrainians to the realistic prospect of a limited victory which nevertheless secured genuine independence Unforgivable is the British and American promise to give Ukraine “all it takes” for victory, when they had no intention whatsoever of doing so, Ukraine was sold a pup by Boris Johnson in 2022 and has been bleeding ever since.

Which brings us back to Trump. Both those who applaud and those who attack his approach to international relations describe it as “transactional.” Supporters argue that it will enable Trump to “do deals” with dictators in America’s interest; opponents deplore precisely its lack of a moral dimension. What both sides miss is that peace itself is a moral objective—in Christian teaching, it is the highest good. Pope Francis has frequently called for negotiations to end the Ukraine war, most recently in his Christmas message. It is the refusal of our hawks and their passive camp-followers to recognize the paramount claims of peace which is the biggest danger facing the world today; Trump offers the most promising escape from an increasingly dangerous future.

Robert Jacob Alexander Skidelsky is an independent peer of Britain’s House of Lords, and a renowned scholar on Keynesianism.[/i]

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/01/lor ... raine-war/

Guess that's about the best you can expect from a 'Lord'.

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Liberation of Neskuchny
January 11, 14:46

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Echo 2023.
The Russian Armed Forces today occupied most of Neskuchnoye. A cleanup is underway. The settlement will be liberated in the near future.
Neskuchnoye was the last settlement captured by the enemy in the summer of 2023 during the offensive on the Vremyevsk salient. Now they have all come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces again.

Velikaya Novosyolka is next. The roads to the west and north from it have already been physically cut off. The roads to the northwest remain, which are under attack from our drones and artillery. The liberation of Velikaya Novosyolka is now only a matter of time. The situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group trapped there continues to deteriorate.

The broadcast of military operations in Ukraine, as usual, is in Telegram https://t.me/boris_rozhin (if you are interested, subscribe)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9605110.html

Volumes of US military supplies to Ukraine during the NWO
January 11, 10:54

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Total volumes of official US military supplies to Ukraine since the start of the NWO.
This is only what is public and official. And this is only the US.

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https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9604654.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Jan 12, 2025 1:49 pm

Peace without diplomacy
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 12/01/2025

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“President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday implored representatives of some 50 countries to maintain their military support for Ukraine’s nearly three-year war with Russia, saying that ‘it would be folly to drop the ball now,’” The New York Times wrote on Thursday, describing the Ukrainian president’s call for continued, if not increased, Western countries’ support for the common military effort. “Russia has suffered more than 700,000 casualties in Ukraine. That’s more than Moscow has endured in all its conflicts since World War II combined. Some casualties in Ukraine now exceed two-thirds of the total strength of the Russian military at the start of Putin’s chosen war. By November 2024 alone, Russia lost nearly 1,500 soldiers a day,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a video posted on social media in which, despite the current state of the world, he attempts to boast about the successes of US policy in the Biden era. Austin also adds the fall of the ruble, paints a picture of a collapsed Russian economy and an isolated country, all of which are common slogans, as is the huge Russian casualties and the silence on Ukrainian ones. With their statements, Zelensky and Austin seem to paint a picture of Ukraine emerging stronger and Russia on the brink of the abyss. The head of the Pentagon makes this even more explicit when he refers to the presence of North Korean troops on the Kursk front as a “sign of Putin’s desperation.”

The axis of the military and media policy of Ukraine and its allies remains the same: sugarcoating the gravity of the situation of Ukrainian troops in Donbass, exaggerating the successes in Kursk (where Russia is advancing even in the places where Ukraine launched a counteroffensive a week ago), exalting Kiev's role in the rules-based international order , demonizing Russian actions, increasing the use of sanctions to try to achieve the isolation they cannot achieve and demanding more economic and military mobilization of assistance to continue fighting. In addition to the $500 million of the foreseeably last military assistance package of the Biden administration, Ukraine has obtained from Japan, another of its priority ally, $3 billion from Russian assets seized in that country, something that brings together two of Ukraine's favorite tools, sanctions against Russia and economic assistance.

After his visit to Germany for the summit at the Rammstein military base, Zelensky continued his trip to one of the Ukrainian leader's most frequented destinations, Italy, where he did not hold back his words to praise Georgia Meloni. The Italian prime minister, with her rise as one of the leading figures in European politics, demonstrates the line that separates the unacceptable extreme right-wing movements that must be fought from those that must be normalised: her attitude towards NATO, her participation in the fight against common enemies and her commitment to the imposition of the neoliberal economic model. "We are grateful for the support of the Italian government and for the support packages for Ukraine, both in terms of support for our army, for our resistance and in terms of humanitarian support for our people," said Volodymyr Zelensky, who recalled that this year's edition of the "reconstruction conference" will be held in Italy. Held in previous years in the United Kingdom and Germany, this series of summits has been proposed as a way of financing the future physical, political and economic reconstruction of the country through the logic of foreign investment and public-private collaboration , that is, privatization.

In Italy, Zelensky was interviewed by RAI 1, where the Ukrainian president once again stressed the key themes of the year. In today's Western discourse, it is not surprising that the same person who repeatedly insists on the need for increased military supply flows in order to achieve victory against an enemy that, depending on the needs of propaganda, is either the second most powerful army in the world or is on the verge of collapse, presents himself as a president of peace. "Our children are overcoming these unfair challenges, it is terrible to see how our children grow up during war," said Zelensky, whose presidency since 2019 has been entirely in war. The mention of the tragedy of war should not be understood as an appeal for peace. Those who are studying sixth grade in the Donbass region this year have lived their entire lives in a war that Zelensky, like his predecessor, preferred to keep active until he could achieve his goals.

Something similar is happening now, with a much more destructive and bloody war in which both countries must be aware that they will not be able to get everything they want. At the press conference announcing the new sanctions against the Russian energy sector, John Kirby, a veteran of US policy communication in this war, stated that the measures have not been taken “with the expectation that it would become a bargaining chip that could be taken off the table when Ukraine wanted to sit down at this negotiating table. Now it is not expected that either side will be willing to negotiate.” In reality, Russia has not only shown its interest in negotiating, but it sees in the reluctance of Donald Trump and his team to the excessive expansion of NATO an opportunity to agree on the most important aspect, that of security. According to the Financial Times , “Putin’s main objective in any negotiation is a new security agreement that guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO and that the Alliance withdraws from some deployments in the east.” It is highly unlikely that Russia would be able to achieve something so beneficial – even at the cost of returning part of the Ukrainian territories now under its control – not only because it would mean handing Moscow a victory, but because the rejection of NATO by Trump’s entourage is something constructed by the media and is not based on the actual position of the president-elect or his entourage. Trumpism seeks to reduce costs and commitments, not to eliminate an alliance whose main task is to maintain a pro-American hegemonic bloc on the European continent.

Ukraine seems to have already accepted that, even with the multi-million dollar support of its allies, it does not have the necessary strength to achieve its two objectives: the recovery of at least the territories lost since the Russian invasion and entry into the military and security structures of Western countries. When it came to choosing between the recovery of the territories in exchange for political concessions and the continuation of the war, both in Minsk and Istanbul Kiev chose to continue fighting in the hope of gaining a stronger position that would allow it not to have to give up anything. The arrival of Trump, who has made the need to stop the war one of his foreign policy slogans and has publicly committed to achieving it, makes it difficult to continue the status quo and forces Zelensky to recover the idea of ​​peace as an objective and, above all, to avoid being seen as an obstacle to achieving it. “It is very important for us that peace comes,” said Zelensky. As always, this peace is always conditional and is not the priority objective. “Before we agree on anything,” he said in relation to future negotiations with Russia, “we must define security guarantees for Ukraine and for Europe.” By comparing his country with the continent as a tool for including Ukraine in a common security architecture, highly militarized and built directly against Moscow, Zelensky makes clear what his version of peace is and, above all, of negotiations, which must be carried out first with the United States, then with the European Union and finally with the Russian enemy.

Zelensky’s peace does not require diplomacy, dialogue and negotiation with his opponent, but with his allies, who must provide what Ukraine demands so that these terms can then be passed on to the Russian delegation, whose role will not be to negotiate but simply to accept. “Our dream is to obtain these [security] guarantees this year and to end the war this year. We will do everything possible to achieve this,” said the Ukrainian president, ready to accept peace once he has achieved something that the United States has never been willing to offer him. John Kirby is right and the conditions for a real negotiation capable of reaching an understanding that would stop the war and end the conflict do not currently exist.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/01/12/paz-sin-diplomacia/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Regarding the situation in the Kursk direction (data from the Ministry of Defense):

Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 350 servicemen, a tank , four infantry fighting vehicles, five armored personnel carriers, 12 armored combat vehicles, four automobiles, a US-made Paladin self-propelled artillery unit , seven mortars, an electronic warfare station , and an armored repair and recovery vehicle have been destroyed . In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost up to 51,200 servicemen, 297 tanks, 228 infantry fighting vehicles, 166 armored personnel carriers , 1,533 armored combat vehicles, 1,449 vehicles, 354 artillery pieces, 44 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including 13 HIMARS and six MLRS made in the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile system launchers, eight transport and loading vehicles, 92 electronic warfare stations, 13 counter-battery radars, four air defense radars, 30 units of engineering and other equipment, including 15 engineering obstacle clearing vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit, as well as eight armored repair and recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle.

***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of the special military operation (as of January 12, 2025) Main:

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported for the first time the loss of a Turkish-made Cobra II armored combat vehicle by the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

— Over the past 24 hours, the Russian Armed Forces have hit the infrastructure of military airfields, concentrations of manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 139 areas;

— Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 410 servicemen and 6 artillery pieces in the area of ​​responsibility of the West group:

— The Center fighters have improved their position along the forward edge, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 450 servicemen and a Bradley IFV;

— Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 190 servicemen and a tank in the area of ​​responsibility of the East group;

— As a result of the actions of the North and Dnipro groups, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost about 90 servicemen;

— Over the past 24 hours, Russian air defense forces have shot down 55 Ukrainian drones;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 250 servicemen in the area of ​​responsibility of the South group.


▫️Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance into the depth of the enemy's defense. Formations of two mechanized , airborne assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a marine brigade and a territorial defense brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Bogatyr, Konstantinopol, Razliv, Vremyevka and Velyka Novosyolka of the Donetsk People's Republic. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 190 servicemen, a tank, seven vehicles, four artillery pieces, including a Polish-made 155 mm self-propelled artillery unit "Krab" .



▫️Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of two coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a National Guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Antonovka, Prydniprovskoye, Ponyatovka in the Kherson region and Novoandriyevka in the Zaporizhia region. The enemy lost more than 60 servicemen, five vehicles, a field artillery gun and a Plastun electronic reconnaissance station . An ammunition depot was destroyed.



▫️ Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups inflicted damage on the infrastructure of military airfields, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and equipment in 139 areas.

▫️ 55 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down by air defense systems .

▫️In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 652 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 40,132 unmanned aerial vehicles, 590 anti-aircraft missile systems, 20,492 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,508 multiple launch rocket systems, 20,465 field artillery pieces and mortars, 30,179 units of special military vehicles.

***

Colonelcassad
Iran has expressed its readiness to help Denmark in the fight against American aggression against Greenland. The Houthis are already preparing to use new hypersonic missiles against the airbase in Thule. An IRGC military adviser is preparing to move to Nuuk.😀

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*****

The Fool's War: Useful Idiots at the Wheel of the Paddy Wagon
Simplicius
Jan 11, 2025

An illustrative set of occurrences give us insight into Western Atlanticist thinking when it comes to Ukraine.

First, Lloyd Austin called the Ukraine conflict “one of the greatest military success stories of our time”, a remarkable—nay, astounding—proclamation; here it is augmented with the proper accompanying visuals: (Video at link.)

This first statement gives one pause, and is cause for great wonder: Are US officials merely putting on, instructed by upper ‘guidance’ to characterize the war in such laudatory terms? Or—and this is the more frightening possibility—do they actually believe their flights of hyperbole?

Austin’s statement is of course just part and parcel to a litany of similar decrees from top establishment figures, the John Kirbys and Blinkens, not to mention Biden himself. We’ve said long ago that as Ukraine nears defeat, and as the US scrapes the barrel for face-saving options, it will have no choice but to redraw the war as a ‘victory’ against a barbarous Putin intent on ‘subjugating all of Europe’. But the conviction with which Austin presents his latest banality leaves us to assume he may be smelling his own flatulence vis-a-vis the great ‘Ukrainian struggle’.

But what truly revealed the extent to which Ukraine was central to this administration’s foreign policy raison d’etre is the next eye-opener: General Milley’s portrait was unveiled in its final place of consecration—or the wall of shame, as it were—in the Pentagram’s Joint Chief’s hallway:

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I draw your attention to the one curiously symbolic detail of the piece:

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A folded up military map of Ukraine, with what appears to be the Dnipro River at the Zaporozhye juncture:

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Experts are unanimous: astoundingly, it appears to be a nod toward Ukraine’s grand Zaporozhye summer offensive of 2023:

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You’ll note that such official portraits are meticulously crafted with exceptional and fastidious attention to detail and symbolism, which is generally interwoven at the subject’s request to subtly highlight their life’s great achievements, passions, as well as the general arc of their service.

In this case, allow us to examine the ‘totem pole’ of Milley’s personal truths, his life’s sacred virtues and oaths of service, judiciously aligned with the manfully knuckled fist of his ‘sovereign side’ hand:

(Paywall with free option.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the ... ots-at-the

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Andrey Grigoriev - Hero of Russia
January 11, 22:55

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The Yakut fighter who became the hero of the famous video https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9588189.html of the battle in Trudovoye was awarded the Hero of Russia star.

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A well-deserved award, and this is not only about the knife fight, but in general - there, in addition to this fight, the Yakut acted skillfully and bravely. A real fighting Yakut.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9605983.html

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Kurakhovo. Small wholesale
January 11, 20:47

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Wholesale surrender in Kurakhovo. 16 Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers surrendered in the Kurakhovo industrial zone.

(Video at link.)

The funniest thing is that despite the fact that even Ukrainian monitoring publics have acknowledged the surrender of Kurakhovo, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command is still talking about defense in the western part of the city. Although there is already objective control of the western outskirts and fighting in the Dachnoye area.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9605749.html

Ukrainian military mansions burn down in Los Angeles
January 12, 13:13

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Ukrainian military mansions burn down in Los Angeles

Fires in Los Angeles have destroyed eight mansions belonging to high-ranking Ukrainian generals. This was reported by the Telegram channel "Military Observer" with reference to Ukrainian media.
According to sources, the total value of the damaged property is about $90 million. At the same time, the authors claim that the military bought the real estate with money that the West allocated to Kiev as part of financial assistance after the start of the special operation.
Severe forest fires began in Los Angeles on January 7, the coastal area of ​​​​Pacific Palisades was the first to suffer, then several more fires appeared. The situation is aggravated by hurricane winds, contributing to the spread of fire, extinguishing is also difficult due to a lack of water in fire hydrants.

Putin sent fire tornadoes.
Everything. Everything that was stolen by backbreaking labor ...

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9606882.html

Google Translator

******

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The Potential for an Anti-Western Ukrainian Turn to the East
byGordonhahn
January 11, 2025

Introduction

It is possible, if not likely that Ukraine’s defeat in the war and its residual effects (collapse of the army, front, and even state) could facilitate their rise to power if somehow an anti-Russian and independent Ukraine emerges after the war. Ukraine’s ultra-nationalists or neo-fascists are intensely anti-liberal, anti-republican, and anti-Western. A few years ago, Dmitro Yarosh, founder and then leader or “coordinator’ of Ukraine’s neofascist Right Sector (RS) and later advisor to now fired Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who is now Kiev’s ambassador to the UK, promised there would be a ‘second phase of the nationalist revolution’ of which the February 2014 Maidan revolt was supposedly but the first. The second phase is to sweep away the liberal and oligarchic remnants of the pre-Maidan democratic order brought into the Maidan regime, in Yarosh’s view. Similar views are held by Ukraine’s many other ultra-nationalists and neo-fascists, and they have been waiting for the moment to initiate the second phase.

Ukraine’s neo-fascists tolerate Western military and other assistance and therefore influence because there is no choice, given the war. Should they come to power and have the opportunity, they would gladly turn away from the West, its assistance, and its anti-national influences and become a fortress island defending against the Western and Eastern (Russian) hordes. Resentment over broken promises and making Ukraine NATO’s sacrificial lamb to the alliance’s expansion would easily fuel neofascist resentment and hatred towards the West in the event of Ukraine’s final defeat in the war.

On the background of the great ruin of the country that the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War has wrought and the event of Ukraine being forced to capitulate to Moscow or sign a peace treaty that consigns all of the four Ukrainian regions that Russia claims as its own (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhe, Kherson, and Crimea) to Moscow, it is highly likely that a segment of the Ukrainian population, perhaps a large one, is likely to turn against the West. This could occur whether or not the ‘nationalist revolution is completed’ in an overt way such as a coup, as ultra-nationalists and neo-fascists hope to come to power. Ukrainians have much to resent regarding the West’s abuse of the desire of many to join the West: political meddling that did not mitigate corruption, pushing NATO expansion despite the visceral opposition to this as a grave national security threat on the part of Ukraine’s great power neighbor, nurturing the February 2014 color ‘revolution of dignity that split the country and sparked civil war, provoking war between Russia and Ukraine by repealing in January 2022 on US President Joe Biden’s December 2021 pledge to Putin that the U.S. would never deploy ballistic missiles in Ukraine, promising Ukraine military assistance ‘for as long as it takes’ so Kiev would abandon the imminent Istanbul peace treaty with Moscow in March-April 2022, the dwindling assistance to Kiev as Russian forces gained the upper hand in the war in late 2023 for American domestic political reasons, and, more recently, pressure to extend Ukraine’s brutally coercive mobilization to the age range of 18-25, which would bring a near catastrophic demographic collapse to a population already depleted by some 30 percent because of war deaths and emigration.[1]

The roots for greater Ukrainian resentment of the West’s limited support lies in the gap between word and deed and occasional glimpses into the selfish motives driving Western actions in Ukraine which are designed to bring benefits to the West purchased in Ukrainian blood and treasure. Western politicians have often stated that it is a ‘good deal’ for Ukrainians to die fighting the Russians so that Westerners do not have to. Yet what kind of ‘Western leadership’ can one speak of when Western politicians repeat ad infinitum that Putin wants to seize all of Europe or at least re-establish the Soviet or Russian Empires after seizes Ukraine. Ukrainians must see this as two-faced hypocrisy; if the threat is so grave then NATO forces should be sent to Ukraine. Of course, most everyone understands that such claims about Putin’s intentions are absurd rhetoric, but those who buy it must resent the hypocrisy and cynical abuse of Ukraine it serves. On this background, it is not surprising that, for example, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba recently expressed “shock” at the West’s refusal to send troops as Ukraine’s battlefronts collapse, noting: “’People in Europe can be pissed off with me, but I kept saying, and I will keep saying, that the truth is today Russia has a friend ready to send its soldiers to die for Russia[’s] war,’ he said, whereas Ukraine’s friends won’t even send it the weapons it needs.”[2]

Thus, the potential for a post-war Ukrainian turn away from the West to the East would not necessarily be extinguished if more moderate elements come to power in a still independent Ukraine or, as is most likely now, a rump thereof. These elements would now be chastened by the bitter experience with the West that pushed their country to war but then abandoned them by requiring Kiev negotiate with Moscow. This more moderate element more nationalistic and less liberal because of the war experience and consigned to make peace with Moscow could well decide that Ukraine’s national self-interest dictates developing good relations with its powerful eastern neighbor rather than relying in a one-sided manner on unreliable Western partners, the most powerful of which is located half a world away. This could be true even if Russia does not impose a puppet regime in Kiev, and if it does then Moscow will find the task of finding allies and subduing resistance within the Ukrainian populace that much easier.

There has been considerable instability and infighting within the Maidan regime since its seizure of power in February 2014 led by a diffuse coalition of oligarchic, nationalist, ultra-nationalist, neo-fascist, liberal republican, and centrist forces. I have written extensively on the fissures within the oligarchic-nationalist Maidan regime both before and during the present NATO-Russia Ukrainian War. I will not review them here other than two mention a few signal conflicts: Petro Poroshenko versus Ihor Kolomoiskii, ultra-nationalists and neo-fascists versus everyone, Yuliya Tymoshenko versus Poroshenko, Volodomyr Zelenskiy versus Poroshenko (not the election but the latter’s arrest), President Zelenskiy versus Kolomoiskii, Zelenskiy versus Ukrainian Armed Forces chief commander General Valeriy Zaluzhniy, HRU chief Kirill Budanov versus Zaluzhniy, and so many, many more. The point is that there is little ideological or political unity within Ukraine’s political elite and people, and as defeat in the war nears the passions it will release will lead to finger pointing, scapegoating, and the most bitter power struggles seen in the country since the Maidan revolt and its aftermath of civil war. The best armed political-ideological element in Ukrainian politics, especially in the event of the collapse of the state or front, is the ultranationalist and neofascist groups. Many ultra-nationalists and neo-fascists will consider the moment to complete the nationalist revolution to have arrived if Ukraine is defeated by Moscow or negotiates with it to end the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War.

All Power to Ukraine’s Neo-Fascists?

I have written for nearly two years now that “as the position of Ukraine’s army deteriorates” along the entire battle front, “the likelihood of a military insurrection and/or popular revolt becomes quite high.” Therefore:

“(T)he risk of a palace and/or military coup runs high. Forces such as Right Sector, Azov, the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps, and a host of smaller ultranationalist and neofascist parties and organizations, with access to arms could return to Kiev and seize power in tandem with some moderate military officers. After all, these elements have been a source of political violence, mass disturbances, and protests of neofascist intimidation for a decade or more. Indeed, they played the lead role in transforming the peaceful Maidan demonstrations, motivated by European aspirations and distaste for corruption, into a violent false flag terrorist attack that targeted protesters and police, sparking the outrage that led to fall of President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014. There is no reason why they cannot convert a new cycle of upheaval, even chaos into a new overthrow of the political leadership.

“A military coup or military-backed coup could also come about as a result of the disintegration and isolation of one or more large Ukrainian military contingent, which manages to set up a separate or even separatist enclave, for example in western Ukraine or parts thereof, under the patronage and leadership of a local politician, oligarch and/or military commander establishing himself as warlord. In this way and others political schism could spark internecine warfare and civil war.”[3]

Along with the West, the neo-fascists and ultra-nationalists were a major stumbling block to any peaceful modus vivendi with Moscow and Ukraine’s ethnic Russian and Russophone populations, blocking implementation of the Minsk accords, violating its ceasefire conditions, and threatening Ukrainian presidents should they fulfill Minsk or otherwise make peace with Moscow after Kiev initiated the civil war in Ukraine in April 2014. There are new elements playing into to radicals’ hands and driving any potential desperate gambit against the Maidan regime, now led by Volodomyr Zelenskiy, including: anger provoked by death and defeat in war among the many extremists fighting on the Ukrainian side, collapse of the Ukrainian state and its sovereignty at the hands of both Russia and the West, and the creeping dissolution of the army.

Some in the West are now beginning to acknowledge not just Ukraine’s likely or certain military defeat, but also the approaching collapse of the front and the possibility of the same for the state, and they are belatedly turning to ceasefire and/or peace talks as a way out. Even the propagandistic Institute for the Study of War acknowledges that Russia has seized six more times territory in 2024 than in 2023 and 2024.[4] One Kings’ College professor has finally warned that the Ukrainian front and army are on the verge of collapse (www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0dpdx420lo). Collapse of army could lead to revolt by units, especially the more politicized, nationalist units, such as Azov, leading to internecine violence and state collapse. Similarly, the economic dislocation any of these processes could facilitate might also bring state failure. The same is true for the opening of negotiations, which could spark the ultra-nationalists and neo-fascists to revolt.

Even the global neocon outlet The Financial Times has suddenly admitted: “Ukraine is losing on the battlefield.” “Biden administration is aware that its present strategy is not sustainable because “we are losing the war.” “If you get into any negotiation, it could be a trigger for social instability,” says a Ukrainian official. “Zelenskyy knows this very well.” “’There will always be a radical segment of Ukrainian society that will call any negotiation capitulation. The far right in Ukraine is growing. The right wing is a danger to democracy,’ says Merezhko, who is an MP for Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party. Ukraine is heading into what may be its darkest moment of the war so far. It is losing on the battlefield in the east of the country, with Russian forces advancing relentlessly — albeit at immense cost in men and equipment. It is struggling to restore its depleted ranks with motivated and well-trained soldiers while an arbitrary military mobilisation system is causing real social tension. It is also facing a bleak winter of severe power and potentially heating outages. The Biden administration is aware that its present strategy is not sustainable because “we are losing the war”, says Jeremy Shapiro, head of the Washington office of the European Council on Foreign Relations.”[5]

The infamous Azov is perhaps the leading fighting element among Ukrainian ultra-nationalists and neo-fascists and will be inclined to take desperate measures in the event of a Ukrainian defeat or Russo-Ukrainian peace. Azov-based or fully manned units, such as the 3rd Assault Brigade, increasingly are refusing to carry out orders. Recently, Azov commander Bogdan Koretich forced the authorities to investigate and fire a top general, with Koretich blaming him for more Ukrainian deaths than those inflicted by the Russians.[6] More recently, he stated Azov would reject any peace agreement with the Russians and would accept only a full Ukrainian victory.[7] This came after three statements by Zelenskiy acknowledging the need for an end to the war and intent to draft a peace proposal by year’s end. In the last of these statements, he stated conditions that did not include the return of all 1991 Ukrainian territory and full withdrawal of Russian troops, though all this changed under his ‘Victory Plan.’

Most recently, RS founder and advisor to former Ukrainian army top commander Zaluzhniy, Dmitro Yarosh repeated his call for the completion of the neofascist revolution on his Facebook page: “As it turned out, during the Dignity Revolution and the Russian-Ukrainian War, Ukrainian nationalists became the main factor in the Ukrainian national-liberation struggle in the 21st century… I am a Ukrainian Nationalist – sounds proud both in Ukraine and across the world. The next power after the War for Independence should be nationalist. Otherwise, we will once again be led down an unbreakable cycle of national humiliation, corruption, degeneracy, moral degradation, economic decline, inferiority and defeat… Therefore, after the War for Independence, the wise, courageous and noble should rule in Ukraine. Glory to the Nation!”[8]

Neo-Fascist Anti-Westernism and a Potential Ukrainian Turn East

Ultra-nationalists and neo-fascists are bitterly opposed to Western values and are using Western assistance to fight off the hated ‘Moskal’ and maintain an independent state they can eventually rule with an iron fist. They will shape if not rule any remaining rump of independent Ukraine should there be one. Any such entity will be centered politically on western Ukraine even more than pre-Maidan and even pre-war Ukraine. It is the birthplace and contemporary hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism, ultra-nationalism, and neo-fascism.

The ultra-nationalists’ disdain for the West is really nothing new. Ukrainian nationalist thinking, which has seeped into most parts of the population in one form or another, has little or, as in most cases, no tolerance for liberalism. Right Sector (RS), founded by Dmitro Yarosh on the Maidan, is a classic Banderist neofascist entity. The Ukrainian collective order envisaged by RS’s philosophy rejects the “empires of communism, Russian great-power chauvinism, democratic liberalism and cosmopolitanism” which are inherently “hostile to the Ukrainian nation.” Ukraine is seen as “caught on the edge between two worlds,” and Ukrainian nationalists’ “sacred mission” is to defend the West in “the ongoing struggle against the latest generation of Asian hordes” and “create a new life.”[9]

The program of the other main RS-founding group, the SNA, should not leave a Western or any other reader sanguine. It emphasizes the very same concept of “nationocracy.” Its proposes banning all political parties, organizations, associations and ideological groups. The elite of the Ukrainian ethnic group or nation will hold full power: “Political power is wholly owned by the Ukrainian nation through its most talented, idealistic and altruistic national representatives who are able to ensure proper development of the nation and its competitiveness.” “Supreme power (executive, legislative and judicial) of the Ukrainian state will be in the hands of the head of state, who is personally responsible to the nation’s own blood and property.” Capitalism is to be “dismantled” and democracy is to be “eliminated.” All actions that fail “to comply with obligations to the nation and the state will entail the restriction of civil rights or deprivation of citizenship … The ultimate goal of Ukrainian foreign policy is world domination.”[10]

The SNA’s leader at the time of Right Sector’s formation was Andriy Biletskiy, who prior to running the SNA led the equally ultra-nationalist ‘Patriots of Ukraine,’ the military wing of the UNA, which was in the business of beating immigrants. Biletskiy is now the commander of the notorious Azov Battalion. In a 2010 interview he described his organization as nationalist “storm troopers.”[11] A year later Biletskiy was in prison, after his organization—renamed the SNA—had been involved in a series of shootouts and fights. In 2007, Biletskiy castigated a government decision to introduce fines for racist remarks, noting: “So why the ‘Negro-love’ on a legislative level? They want to break everyone who has risen to defend themselves, their family, their right to be masters of their own land! They want to destroy the Nation’s biological resistance to everything alien and do to us what happened to Old Europe, where the immigrant hordes are a nightmare for the French, Germans and Belgians, where cities are ‘blackening’ fast and crime and the drug trade are invading even the remotest corners.”[12] Although Azov is stridently anti-Russian, there are holes in its seeming unanimity that could play to more toleration of them. For example, while anti-Russianism or rusophobia has replaced anti-Semitism and anti-Sovietism at present, this need not be forever in such circles. Thus, the commander of the 3rd Mechanized Company of the Azov Battalion or 3rd Assault Brigade and awardee of Ukraine’s Golden Cross, Anton “Berserk” Radko, blames the Soviet era famine in Ukraine and elsewhere, the Holodomor, not on the Soviets per se or even the Russian but on the Jews, presumably the Jewish Bolsheviks: “We must not forget nationalities, which are responsible for the hunger. And those are not Russians.”[13]

Nothing has changed in this part of Ukraine’s political spectrum, except perhaps for greater radicalization and rejection of Western values. In a recent Facebook post, Yarosh noted: “Our struggle for God’s values, Ukrainian identification, our State denies all the filth that the ‘multicultural’, ‘gender-equal’, ‘tolerant’ West is trying to impose on us… The Eastern Horde is at war with us, Ukrainians, understanding all the weakness of the collective west… We, fighting for ourselves, do not have to surrender to either the rot of the West or Eastern despotism. We, Ukrainians, need to realize that we can win only when God is with us, and not Satan. The Ten Commandments of God are the landmark of all normal people. Praise God and Nation!”[14]

The war’s devastation and Western perfidy are strengthening the radical nationalist wing of Ukrainian politics: the ultranationalists and neofascists. As Rada deputy Merezhko, representing Zelenskiy’s Slugy naroda (Servants of the People) party is quoted above: “If you get into any negotiation, it could be a trigger for social instability. … There will always be a radical segment of Ukrainian society that will call any negotiation capitulation. The far right in Ukraine is growing. The right wing is a danger to democracy.”[15]

But the nationalists’ strengthening does not guarantee their seizure of power. There is the equally feasible possibility that a more moderate, realistic group – perhaps led by oligarchs and/or sensible military men – that will sue for peace, swallow the bitter pills of lost population, territory, and economies blaming it on the West for convincing Zelenskiy to reject Istanbul, and make a turn back to the east. As one former Zelenskiy Cabinet official told an American journalist that Zelenskiy’s vision of the war‘s end corresponds neither to the West’s or the Ukrainian people’s and that there is an enormous gap between the elite and the population about continuation of the war.[16] The family and friends of the now nearly one million Ukrainians who have lost their lives in this eminently avoidable war will have questions, and those who rejected peace with Moscow and persisted and persist in a lost venture will have no good answers. In Ukraine’s increasingly angst- and revenge-filled atmosphere, there would be nothing unusual or even untoward about a turn against the West.

Non-Western-Centric Foreign Policy Visions

In foreign policy, RS’s program proposes a non-aligned course in the current understanding of that term. Partnership with NATO, the EU, the CIS and other existing international organizations is regarded as “dangerous and destructive.” Ukrainian geopolitical strategy is to be based on something like Pilsudski’s ‘Intermarium’: the creation of a “priority space” encompassing a north-south axis extending from the Baltic Sea to the Caucasus and Black Sea based on countries Ukraine has “historically cooperated with” – Sweden, Lithuania, Poland, Turkey, Georgia).[17] A short course for RS members on the ideology of “nationalist revolution” and “nationocracy” states that the RS is founded on the ideas of OUN, Bandera, among other Ukrainian ultra-nationalists. Specifically, the polity of the “National Order” will be built not on the basis of political competition and parties but on “orders” or brotherhoods designed not to represent various interests but rather to unite the Ukrainian nation in a “Ukrainian Community of Independent States” (Ukrainskaya Sobornaya Samostiynoi Derzhava) or UCCD. In both Ukrainian and Russian, the concept of ‘sobornost’’ means an organic unity that presumes unity of belief and values and precludes conflict between interests within a community. Thus, quoting the nationalist philosopher Ivan Franko, the course notes assert: “Everything that goes beyond the frame of the nation is either hypocrisy or sterile sentimental fiction.” [18] Azov vision for Ukrainian ‘foreign policy’ has been stated by its commander Biletskiy: “The historic mission of our nation in this critical moment is to lead the White Races of the world in a final crusade for their survival. A crusade against the Semite-led Untermenschen.”[19]

There is no pro-Western vision is in these plans. The world is divided into two camps in different variations, but there is one constant: the superiority of the Ukrainian nation over all else. And these sentiments do not reside only in the farthest reaches of Ukraine’s political spectrum. There are held by people who have been accepted into the Ukrainian mainstream within the elite. Yarosh was a military advisor to Zaluzhniy, who has close relations with Right Sector and its military spinoff: the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps (DUK) modeled ideologically on the World War II era, Nazi-allied Ukrainian Partisan Army (UPA). Biletskiy is commander of Azov, which is one of the Ukrtainian army’s most important military units. Moreover, many of their ideas are shared by or resemble those professed by the numerous other ultra-nationalist and neo-fascist groups in Ukraine such as C13, Svoboda and even moderate nationalist parties such as Yulia Tymoshenko’s ‘Fatherland’ party. Moreover, many neofascists have been elected to the Rada on tickets of moderate parties. Moreover, independently of political personages, ultra-nationalist and neo-fascist ideas have bled into the mainstream and are comfortably tolerated when not fully supported. So a moderate post-war successor to the Zelenskiy government could adopt positions based on non-alignment with West and find practical and cultural reasons to restore decent relations with Moscow.

Neither a neo-fascist regime or their messianic vision becoming a model of post-war Ukrainian foreign policy is needed for the adoption of an a-Western or anti-Western policy of return to the east. Nor do these positions mean necessarily a return to close or even good relations with Russia or a puppet-master relationship. The former outcome in the short- to mid-term aftermath of this conflict is unlikely. The latter – some sort of puppet regime in Kiev – would obviously preclude a nationalist regime of any kind. But a moderate, practical oligarchic regime could come to power in an independent, neutral post-war Ukraine — perhaps by way of a coup led by some within Zelenskiy’s inner circle and/or former president Petro Poroshenko and Gen. Zaluzhniy — and sue for peace. Their subsequent regime could involve the likes of coal magnate Rinat Akhmetov and/or centrist politicians such as Oleg Boiko. It would be more interested in garnering the economic investment opportunities the Sino-Russian BRICS+ and One Road One Belt project might offer for rebuilding Ukraine. China is already heavily invested in land purchases there.

Although Russian puppet regime or Ukraine’s disappearance as an independent state are becoming more likely, peace talks between the future Trump administration and the Kremlin could produce an agreement that allows for an independent, rump and, crucially, neutral and largely military-denuded Ukraine. In such conditions, a clever, practical Ukrainian government might play off the West and the Sino-Russian-led Rest against each other to Ukraine’s benefit, as the overthrown Viktor Yanukovych once did. Now, however, EU membership prospects can be perhaps improved by moving close to BRICS+ either through cooperation or membership, since EU membership does not preclude BRICS+ membership (though BRICS+ membership could preclude EC accession. At any rate, there would be ways to game the two systems before making a decisive commitment either way.

It becomes an exercise in futility trying to imagine a scenario in which a truly neo-fascist regime coming to remains there long in lieu of massive Western backing and a very Russo-Western standoff that somehow remains peaceful ensuring the survival of Ukraine and many of the rest of us. Western backing is unlikely at any rate, since Western publics are tired enough of the corrupt, quasi-neo-fascist Maidan regime in its wartime iteration. Western backing of an outright neofascist regime of the kind a Yarosh or Biletskiy could head or strongly support seems a bridge too far even for today’s unprincipled West. An independent moderate regime or a Russian puppet regime seem more likely outcomes. The former could be formed only in conditions of a Russo-West peace agreement on Ukraine and Europe’s future security architecture. Ukrainian neutrality, which would have to be part and parcel of any such agreement, would hold the potential for a slow return of Ukraine to the east, maintaining self-interested and cordial relations with Moscow and the West, and Kiev’s joining the new Eurasian order.

[1] https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war- ... 819cc5618f.

[2] www.politico.eu/article/former-ukraine- ... mir-putin/

[3] Gordon M. Hahn, “The Road to Ukraine’s Ruin and Possibly a Russian Quagmire,” Russian and Eurasian Politics, 9 October 2023, https://gordonhahn.com/2023/10/09/the-r ... -quagmire/.

[4] www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0dpdx420lo.

[5] https://archive.is/Ylpt9#selection-4781.0-4785.257.

[6] https://ctrana.news/news/467600-bohdan- ... dolja.html.

[7] https://ctrana.news/news/467699-bohdan- ... raine.html.

[8]www.facebook.com/dyastrub/posts/pfbid07 ... REvyiNgvil.

[9] “Korotkiy ideolohichno vyhovniy kurs dlya vo tryzub im s Bandery ta pravoho sektora,” Pravyysektor.info, 27 November 2015, http://old.pravyysektor.info/articles/k ... o-sektora/, last accessed on 15 January 2016.

[10] Programa, Sotsialno-Natsionalna Assembleya, Snaua.info, http://snaua.info/programa/, last accessed 15 September 2014. See also Gordon M. Hahn, “Maidan Ukraine’s Neo-Fascist Problem,” Fair Observer, 23 September 2014, http://www.fairobserver.com/region/euro ... lem-14785/.

[11] “Andrei Biletskii | Sotsial-natsionalizm – zolotoi vek Ukrainy,” YouTube, 7 December 2014, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KfqYT6U6xc; Leonid Bershidskiy, “Ukraine’s Neo-Nazis Won’t Get U.S. Money,” Bloomberg, 12 June 2015, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2 ... -u-s-money; and Robert Parry, “US House Admits Nazi Role in Ukraine,” Consortium News, 13 June 2015, http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2 ... in-ukraine.

[12] “Slovo bilogo vozhdya.pdf,” VKontakte, http://vk.com/doc29866988_319980052?has ... cbe50c4daf, last accessed on 29 January 2016; and Bershidskiy, “Ukraine’s Neo-Nazis Won’t Get U.S. Money;” and Parry “US House Admits Nazi Role in Ukraine.”

[13]https://x.com/havryshkomarta/status/186 ... 3DfCRCwexQ.

[14]www.facebook.com/dyastrub/posts/pfbid02 ... PQW2fQDhKl.

[15] https://archive.is/Ylpt9#selection-4781.0-4785.257.

[16] www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-does-v ... look-like/ and https://t.me/stranaua/170879.

[17] “Programa Pravogo Sektora,” Pravyysektor.info, http://pravyysektor.info/programa.html, last accessed on 30 January 2016. See also Gordon M. Hahn, Ukraine Over the Edge: Russia, the West and the “New Cold War” (Jefferson: McFarland, 2016), p. 182.

[18] “Korotkiy ideolohichno vyhovniy kurs dlya vo tryzub im s Bandery ta pravoho sektora.”

[19] Tom Parfitt, “Ukraine crisis: The neo-Nazi brigade fighting pro-Russian separatists,” Telegraph (UK), 11 August 2014, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... tists.html.

https://gordonhahn.com/2025/01/11/the-p ... -the-east/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Jan 13, 2025 1:04 pm

Between fear and hope
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 01/13/2025

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“Ukrainians are torn between fear and hope in the face of Trump’s new mandate,” wrote EFE yesterday in a report in which it collected statements from different people, both experts and ordinary citizens, to give voice to local opinion in the face of the arrival of the new president of the United States, who has promised to stop the war. One of the arguments for optimism is the possibility that, through threats of imposing sanctions and increasing tariffs, Trump will be able to “threaten Russia through the Chinese.” The logic is based on the fact that, “for China, it is much more important to have good commercial relations with the West than with Russia.” This analysis by Maksim Skripchenko, from the Center for Transatlantic Dialogue in Kiev, prefers to ignore the fact that the economic and political pressure to which the West – fundamentally the United States, but also the European Union as an entity voluntarily subordinated to Washington’s logic – is subjecting Beijing is achieving that, instead of distancing themselves, the two neighbors are increasing their relations.

The goal of having China force Russia to stop the war is not new, and it has even been said that it was Xi Jinping's words against the use of nuclear weapons that forced Moscow to reject such an option. There does not need to be real evidence that the Kremlin was ever seriously considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons, as two American journalists have claimed based on information provided to them by American intelligence sources, but the idea, real or imagined, has become a fact in this war in which the narrative is more important than the events.

Depending on the needs of the moment, China's role in the war has been assessed differently by the Western powers. When it was necessary to confirm Russia's isolation, data was published on Chinese companies that were allegedly not cooperating with Russia, while when new sanctions were to be imposed in the face of the failure of previous ones, Chinese companies were threatened with coercive measures if they did not stop their collaboration with Moscow. The same dynamic is repeated in the military sphere, where, on the one hand, China is accused of supplying military equipment to Russia, while the rejection of military cooperation is also mentioned when the Kremlin turns to Iran or the People's Republic of Korea for material instead of to China.

In his attempt to give Beijing a special role in the conflict, Volodymyr Zelensky highlights the importance of his talks with Chinese representatives, whom he receives in kyiv, but whose peace plan, which is nothing more than a roadmap to facilitate negotiations, is automatically discarded as not being sufficiently pro-Ukrainian. Ukraine often criticises military collaboration with Russia, of which there is no evidence in the war other than Zelensky's words or the accusations periodically raised by Antony Blinken, statements that are soon offset by speeches highlighting the great importance of the Global South in supporting kyiv.

It is no hidden secret that Kiev and its allies have made remarkable diplomatic efforts to try to bring Beijing closer to their position. After Dmitro Kuleba visited China to convince Beijing that the Peace Plan demanding Russia's surrender was more feasible than the Chinese roadmap to a negotiated end, it was Annalena Baerbock who made the next attempt. “The growing Chinese support for Russia's war against Ukraine has an impact on our relations, as the fundamental security interests of Germany and Europe have been affected,” said the belligerent German Foreign Minister, who, after Kuleba's carrot, wanted to use the stick to obtain the same results. Despite European reluctance to understand that the century of humiliation ended in China many decades ago and that the European Union does not have enough strength to demand action from Beijing, the attempts continue. The failure of the European pressure strategy is demonstrated by the fact that Baerbock also made a sad attempt to use the People's Republic of Korea, whose main historical ally has been the People's Republic of China, to convince Beijing of the imminent danger of the breakdown of an international order in which the weight of the West is underestimated and in which China claims to have a role commensurate with its population and economic power. "The Russian president is not only destroying our European peace order with his war but is now advancing towards Asia through North Korea," said the German diplomat in a statement that also fell on deaf ears. There is no indication that Beijing has viewed with concern Pyongyang's relative rapprochement with Moscow, which does not contradict bilateral relations between the different countries, the trade currently existing between Russia and the Korean peninsula or the participation of North Korean units in the defence of the Kursk region.

The choice to exert political and economic pressure through tariffs, sanctions and threats against Russia and China at the same time makes unlikely the desired break-up that, from Ukraine, is seen as the black swan that would collapse the Russian economy and force Russia to unilaterally stop the war. The dream of using Russia against China, an existing trend in the Republican Party, is now reversed in the hope of putting pressure on China against Russia. This current strategic relationship is temporary and will have to prove in the long term whether it can withstand the test of time. However, for the moment, it is clearly beneficial for both: Russia avoids being economically isolated and opens up to a huge market with which to compensate for its losses in the trade of raw materials and China obtains these goods at significant discounts. The fact that India, a country much more integrated than China in the Western world-system, has increased economic relations with Russia instead of decreasing them is a reflection of the failure of the attempt to create a blockade similar to that which harasses Cuba, Venezuela or Iran and which, with a wide border with a strategic ally, is easier to overcome.

In the nearly three years since the Russian invasion, China has continued to openly cooperate with Russia on ongoing bilateral projects, the presidents have made mutual state visits, trade relations have increased – although possibly not to the extent that Russia would like – the peace plan promoted by China and Brazil is the one that most clearly supports diplomacy and direct negotiation, and Chinese investment has still not appeared in the Kiel Institute’s tracking of military, humanitarian and financial assistance to Ukraine. The war in Europe is at the centre of the foreign policy agenda of European countries, but it does not define the day-to-day international relations at a global level as Ukraine and its Western allies would like.

Like the expert mentioned in the EFE article , American analysts are also looking to China when trying to find ways for Donald Trump to unblock the diplomatic process. “If Trump wanted to try something creative, he would involve China in this bidding. Zelensky fervently wants China to get involved to stop future Russian actions. The Biden administration talked about involving Beijing, but did not make much progress. “If Trump could involve President Xi Jinping in achieving peace in Ukraine, they should both share the Nobel Peace Prize,” says Graham Allison, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School,” wrote David Ignatuius, one of the star columnists of The Washington Post , in December . In this war in which desires are confused with reality, the use of China as a tool against Russia, as if the second most populous country on the planet and second economic power were a toy whose strings can be pulled from a distance, is the political equivalent of miracle weapons, arguments that give hope for the future to avoid seeing the reality of the moment and accepting that the necessary step to change it is not force, military or political pressure, but diplomacy.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/01/13/entre ... esperanza/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
📍Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of January 13, 2025) Key points:

Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 515 servicemen in the area of ​​responsibility of the Western group;

— Over the past 24 hours, air defence systems have shot down six HIMARS MLRS projectiles and 83 Ukrainian aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles;

— Since the beginning of the special military operation, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed over 20,500 Ukrainian tanks;

— The Russian Armed Forces have hit military airfields and concentrations of Ukrainian manpower;

— Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 210 servicemen and a tank as a result of the actions of the Vostok group;

— Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 115 servicemen as a result of the actions of the North and Dnipro groups;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 285 servicemen in the area of ​​responsibility of the South group.


▫️Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense, defeating formations of four mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and three territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Konstantinopol, Velyka Novosyolka, Neskuchnoye and Bogatyr of the Donetsk People's Republic. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 210 servicemen, a tank, a combat armored vehicle HMMWV made in the USA, five cars and a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Braveheart" made in Great Britain.



▫️Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of the mechanized , infantry brigades, two coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Pridneprovske, Antonovka in the Kherson region, Mala Tokmachka and Malye Shcherbaky in the Zaporizhia region. The enemy lost up to 80 servicemen, a combat armored vehicle, four cars, four field artillery guns, including a 155-mm howitzer M777 made in the USA. Two electronic warfare stations and an ammunition depot were destroyed.



▫️ Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and equipment in 157 areas.

▫️ Air defense systems shot down two French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs , six US-made HIMARS multiple launch rockets , and 83 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

▫️ In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 652 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 40,215 unmanned aerial vehicles, 590 anti-aircraft missile systems, 20,512 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,508 multiple launch rocket systems, 20,545 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 30,218 special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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In Related News.

Confusion reigns.

Phone talks between US President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected within the “coming days and weeks,” incoming US National Security Adviser Michael Waltz believes. The potential call could serve as the foundation for further negotiations and an in-person meeting between Trump and Putin, Waltz told ABC News on Sunday. “We have not set an exact framework for it, yet we’re working on that. But I do expect a call at least in the coming days and weeks. That will be a step and we’ll take it from there,” Waltz said.

So, the framework hasn't been set but "preparations continue", evidently on the US side only, because as Mr. Peskov stated two days ago--Moscow hasn't received any requests about anything. But when even cretins from neocon ISW get it:


Vladimir Putin will not alter his demands for the isolation of Ukraine and does not intend to relinquish this issue during any potential negotiations to end the conflict, according to the American Institute for the Study of War. Putin's objectives remain the same: to prevent Kyiv from joining NATO and to pressure the Alliance to avoid deploying troops in Eastern Europe to ensure there are "no threats to Russia," reports ISW. Thus, analysts from the Washington-based think tank concur with the information reported by the "Financial Times" on Saturday. "Putin's December 2021 demands notably extend beyond Ukraine and aim to roll NATO back. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated on January 10 that the Kremlin is ready to hold talks with Trump without any 'preconditions,'" the report states. "ISW continues to assess that no negotiations will result in a meaningful or sustainable peace as long as Putin remains committed to his pre-war demands for full Ukrainian capitulation and the weakening of NATO," American analysts indicate.

In related news, I am "setting the framework" for me becoming a millionaire. My bank and credit organizations do not know about it, but I am setting it, nonetheless. In the same vein--Waltz stated that nothing could be excluded in Greenland's case. Like, you know, military "scenario"))) It is getting curioser and curioser.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/01 ... ws_12.html

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Aleksandro-Kalinovskoe direction: advance of Russian troops in Dzerzhinsk
January 12, 2025
Rybar

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Russian troops continue to successfully advance in several areas within the borders of Dzerzhinsk . In the last two weeks, the resistance of Ukrainian formations in this area has weakened significantly, which allowed them to occupy most of the city's buildings, reaching the industrial zone on the northern and northeastern outskirts of the city.

In the 12th microdistrict, fighters from the 4th company of the 3rd rifle battalion of the 109th separate rifle regiment raised the unit's flag on the spoil tip of mine No. 10 , confirming the stable control of the Russian Armed Forces over the surrounding area. North of the spoil tip, the fighters are gradually approaching the spoil tip of mine No. 12 and the industrial site of the "Saint Matrona of Moscow" mine.

In the Fomikha microdistrict, Russian units were spotted on Volynskaya Street near the slag heap of the same name. It is unknown whether the fighters managed to establish control over the dominant height, just as the status of the Toretskaya mine , on the outskirts of which fighting has been going on for the past few weeks, remains unclear. With its capture, it will be possible to state the almost complete liberation of Dzerzhinsk.

https://rybar.ru/aleksandro-kalinovskoe ... erzhinske/

Google Translator

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Fight in Pogrebki. 09.01.2025
January 12, 21:04

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Fight in Pogrebki. 09.01.2025

On January 9, a group of our infantry fell into a deadly trap.

This is not a loud headline to attract attention, not a poetic exaggeration, but a factual situation.

First, an enemy infantry fighting vehicle drove the group into a small basement with dense fire from an automatic cannon.

Immediately after that, enemy stormtroopers rushed into the building, took control of the exit from the basement and began throwing grenades down.

In total, 17 regular grenades, one chemical and one incendiary flew into a room the size of your bathroom.

Each of the men defending the basement was shell-shocked and poisoned with chemicals several times. Nevertheless, the fighters fought back for several hours.

It is clear that they would inevitably be eaten. With grenades, explosives, thermobars or gas. And there was one magazine of ammunition left for

each person. The "Hornet" crew of the "Irishmen" squad and our colleagues from the unit-must-not-be-named were busy rescuing the infantry from the mousetrap

. The armored vehicles were destroyed

. The drones burned out the enemy assault forces that had straddled the entrance to the basement. We did it carefully, so as not to collapse the building on our guys' heads

. The fighters climbed out of the basement and got under a machine gun. There was a smart hohol sitting there, he almost tore them to pieces

. The guys went back down. They called for help on the radio.

We killed the machine gunner and cleared out the infantry around. We tore the fire bag in several places.

As darkness fell, the group jumped out of the church and retreated in battle. We directed them with a drone with the backlight on

. The group commander received a bunch of shrapnel wounds. Another fighter was seriously injured by the arrival of a Ukrainian kamikaze. He told his comrades to retreat without him and was left bleeding

The group reached their own

The drone wounded man died

***

Nothing special, right? Now let's add a plot twist

I once fought with a stormtrooper whose call sign was "Grandfather". This peculiar and very worthy gentleman and I went through a lot together. Then our paths diverged

Some time ago, Grandfather signed a contract again

He was the one who commanded the group defending the basement

I only found out about this yesterday

(c) Platon Mamatov

(Video at link.)

Video https://t.me/Irishstrike/98 ("Irish Strike Force")
Story https://t.me/diomeddog/3915 (in the photo Grandfather. This is what Grandfather looked like when we fought together)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9607808.html

Google Translator

******

Zachary Paikin & Mark Episkopos: The Budapest Memo holds keys to ending the Ukraine war
January 12, 2025
By Zachary Paikin & Mark Episkopos, Responsible Statecraft, 1/2/24

As the incoming Trump administration prepares to launch negotiations aimed at ending the current phase of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, the question of security guarantees is certain to feature prominently in talks.

Talk of security guarantees is nothing new — indeed, it has underscored much of the drama that has unfolded since Russia’s initial military buildup in 2021. Moscow insisted that the United States and NATO undertake legally binding obligations in its two “draft treaties,” published on the eve of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, aimed at guaranteeing Ukraine’s neutrality and rolling back NATO forces in Central and Eastern Europe to where they were prior to the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. Kyiv, for its part, naturally wants ironclad measures that can ensure it will not fall victim to another war of aggression in the years ahead.

To some extent, however, this is all déjà vu. Thirty years ago last month, the Budapest Memorandum was signed.

Aimed at providing security assurances to Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan in exchange for their entry into the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Budapest Memorandum committed Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom to abstain from military and economic coercion against these three newly independent post-Soviet states. Its lessons offer important clues for how to bring peace to what has tragically become a war-torn region.

The memorandum has become the source of considerable mythmaking following Russia’s brazen violation of Ukrainian sovereignty on February 24, 2022 (though some have asserted that the United States was the first to violate the memorandum with its sanctions against Belarus). Most notably, Atlanticists and pro-Ukrainian advocates often insist that Kyiv gave up its nuclear weapons — the ultimate deterrent and guarantee of one’s own security — in exchange for promises that its borders would be respected.

Of course, these missiles were Soviet — they were never functionally Ukrainian and were beyond Kyiv’s ability to maintain. Lost even more often in this discussion is the fact that the newly minted Ukrainian state prohibited itself from accepting, producing or acquiring nuclear weapons in its 1990 Declaration of State Sovereignty, the same declaration in which Kyiv announced its “intention of becoming a permanently neutral state.”

Famously, the memorandum offered Ukraine security assurances rather than legally binding security guarantees, a distinction explicitly stressed by American diplomats during the talks. Indeed, the memorandum was never approved by the U.S. Senate, as treaties must be, because it did not proffer any security guarantees to Ukraine. Nor did it commit the U.S. — or any other signatory — to any specific punitive action in the event of aggression against Ukraine, affirming instead a “commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance” to Kyiv in case of an armed attack.

Given the history of the drafting process, Washington cannot be accused of pulling a fast one on Ukraine with ambiguous language or by using terms that may have been lost in translation. Simply put, the United States has never promised to fight for Ukraine — a position held in 1994 and reaffirmed by the Biden administration since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Any security guarantees offered to Ukraine aimed at bringing current hostilities to a close will be novel ones, not compensation for the West having supposedly failed to uphold its existing obligations.

In this context, Western states will need to weigh carefully just how far they are prepared to go, since Russia has demonstrated its willingness to fight for Ukraine while the West — initial suggestions of European peacekeepers aside — has not. French President Emmanuel Macron’s discussion earlier this year of sending European troops to Ukraine to prevent a Russian victory was promptly shut down by Western allies. One could argue that Ukraine’s status as a security “gray area” is what prompted Russia’s invasion, but permanent neutrality is just as plausible a resolution to this dilemma as NATO membership.

But perhaps the greatest lesson to derive from the history of the Budapest Memorandum is that context matters. The memorandum was agreed at a time when relations between Russia and the West were much more favorable (although by the end of 1994, Boris Yeltsin was already warning of the risk of a “cold peace”). The conclusion is that diplomacy — an evolving mixture of deterrence and reassurance — is consistently needed to tend to international relationships to ensure that agreements are upheld. The same will be true when it comes to “guaranteeing” that Russia will never invade Ukraine again.

By contrast, the Western approach to relations with Russia in the post-Cold War era has often been more legalistic than diplomatic — “throwing the book” at Moscow by pointing out the alleged ways in which it has failed to live up to its international commitments. Yet Kyiv was all too happy not to implement the Minsk agreements, which brought the initial rounds of fighting in the Donbas conflict to a halt, using the intervening years between 2015 and 2022 to strengthen its hand. Similarly, Moscow believed that the post-Cold War status quo was imposed upon it at a time of national weakness — something it sought to rectify by way of its “draft treaties.”

It is easy to say pacta sunt servanda, that agreements must be kept. But this requires building and maintaining trust. Doing so will require all sides to stop airing their tired narratives in public — such as when Moscow dismisses the perspectives of Central and Eastern European states as Russophobic or when Western countries pointlessly insist that NATO expansion is directed against no one — and recognize one another’s security concerns as legitimate.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/01/zac ... raine-war/

The Baltic states are most certainly Russophobic. What can be done about that I don't know.

Finland did well as a neutral state, why not Ukraine and the Balts?
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Jan 14, 2025 12:35 pm

Trumpism's plans
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 01/14/2025

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“Critics are attacking President-elect Donald Trump after a key adviser appeared to backtrack on a major campaign promise,” wrote The Huffington Post yesterday, commenting on the latest and strange television appearance by the man who will be Donald Trump’s envoy to resolve the Ukraine issue. “Trump has repeatedly said he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office or even sooner. But retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, whom Trump named as special envoy for the two nations, told Fox News last week that it would take longer, echoing comments made earlier by Trump himself,” the article continued. Trump has said on at least six separate occasions that he would be able to resolve the conflict quickly and even before taking office. Donald Trump is not the only political leader whose campaign promises are moderated as soon as the election results are announced, and the few statements he has made as president-elect pointed weeks ago to a clear reduction of expectations that he himself had raised with clearly electoral objectives. Although Trump has claimed “some progress” on the road to a resolution, both the situation on the ground and diplomatic moves indicate that these advances exist only in the mind of the American leader, always ready to exaggerate his successes and even invent them.

“I really have a lot of confidence in his ability to get to a position where this war is over. And I think what people have to understand is that he’s not trying to give anything to Putin or the Russians. He’s trying to save Ukraine and its sovereignty, and he’s going to make sure it’s fair and just,” said Kellogg, who continues to base his assessment on blind faith in a man who has made it clear that he has no plan. The general said he was speaking in a personal capacity and not on behalf of Donald Trump, which further reinforces the perception that, whatever proposal the future president is going to present, the person who must steer the process does not yet know those intentions. But even so, Keith Kellogg, who already presented a plan last May that can be summed up as using the supply of weapons as a carrot and stick - continuing the flow of weapons only if Ukraine agrees to negotiate and increasing it if Russia refuses to participate - is able to give a time frame. “Let’s set it at 100 days and go back to the end and figure out how to do it in the short term to make sure that the solution is solid, sustainable and that this war ends to end the carnage,” he added, again giving a sense of intention but a lack of plans to achieve the objectives. Despite what he had stated when he was appointed to the post, Kellogg will not visit Ukraine on his intelligence-gathering mission until after Trump’s inauguration. Without having visited the country or met with Zelensky and with the certainty that there is no proposal at the level of the presidential team, it is not surprising that the media appearances of General Kellogg, whose plan suffers from the same simplistic nature as Donald Trump’s vision, are hardly convincing and give the appearance of serious doubts about the result of the work that has not yet begun.

Far from the uncertainty conveyed by Keith Kellogg, Mike Waltz, the future National Security Advisor, possibly the most important position in the area of ​​Foreign Affairs, radiates all the confidence of Trumpism. The difference in the perception of the speech of two people who will have to work as a team, and who possibly should have already started to do so, if they really want to fulfill their president's campaign promise, raises even more doubts about the team that will have to resolve a conflict whose complexity they seem to ignore. Hours before the elections, in an appearance on NPR , Waltz, whose name had not yet been revealed as a future member of Trump's foreign policy team, showed a markedly harsh speech against Russia, in such a way that he did not distinguish himself too much from the hawks who have pulled the strings in the last decade. Waltz proposed using the bombing of Russian territory using Western missiles as a tool of pressure, while advocating a ban on liquefied natural gas from the Russian Federation in an attempt to expel Russian energy from the world market, which is not too different from the latest steps taken by the Biden administration regarding sanctions.

Waltz's speech has not changed and remains harsh, although always within the framework of the need to seek an end to this war, which in a recent interview he defined as "a carnage in the style of the First World War with the consequences of a Third World War." Trump's team is not only incapable of understanding the complexity of a conflict in which the key is the security structure, an aspect in which the red lines of both countries in conflict are incompatible, but prefers to ignore reality and shape it to its liking. Once again, and it is already becoming the norm, Mike Waltz insisted on the radical change that has taken place in the world - Trumpism never avoids exaggeration - since Donald Trump's victory. He did so by recalling the "number of people who have gone from the blank check, the as long as necessary without conditions, even if it lasts months, years, decades in terms of perpetuating this war" to approaching Donald Trump to seek its end. The example Waltz gives is precisely Volodymyr Zelensky, who he says walked into the room at the Paris meeting saying, “I am ready to work with you to end this war. We are going to end it responsibly, in a way that protects Ukraine’s future, but we are going to end this thing.” Aware of the Republican candidate’s promises of peace, Zelensky has shaped his speech to present himself as a president open to negotiation and peace, albeit with conditions. Everything indicates that Donald Trump and his team have decided to focus on that first part and ignore the second. Only then can this conclusion be drawn from Zelensky’s meetings with Donald Trump, from his constant mention of peace through force, always adding the demand for NATO membership, the arrival of European troops or a package of Western weapons that makes any agreement with the Russian Federation unfeasible.

“From Trump’s point of view, you cannot reach an agreement without some kind of dialogue with the other side, and we will establish that in the coming months,” Waltz continued, without explaining that this is one of Volodymyr Zelensky’s red lines, who expects negotiations with the United States and then transfers the terms to Moscow. “The other thing we will need is to stabilize the situation at the front,” Waltz continued, who quickly came to the second most controversial issue for Ukraine, the question of recruitment. Yesterday, Servant of the People MP Fyodor Venislavsky reaffirmed that there will be no reform in the coming months that would allow the demobilization of soldiers, even those who have been fighting for two or three years. This refusal to relieve exhausted troops, coupled with the seemingly endless stream of videos of abuse by recruiting agents in public places and the attempted escape of potential recruits pursued by mobilization, shows the personnel difficulties that Ukraine is experiencing. Allies and suppliers are aware of this and have publicly lobbied Zelensky for a lowering of the draft age, one of the few areas the Ukrainian president has publicly railed against his partners. Judging by Waltz’s words, there will be continuity on that front as well. “They have personnel problems,” the future National Security Adviser said on ABC’s This Week , adding that “their draft age right now is 26, not 18. I don’t think many people realize that. They can generate hundreds of thousands of new soldiers. When we hear about morale problems, when we hear about problems at the front, look, if the Ukrainians have asked everyone to go all in on democracy, we need them to go all in on democracy.” After insisting again on the need to “solve the problem of manpower shortages” by recruiting the shortest generation since World War II, Waltz insists that “this is not all about ammunition or writing more checks. It is about stabilizing the front lines so that we can reach some kind of agreement.”

That kind of agreement that Trumpism has not yet begun to work on and does not yet know how to define or when it will arrive is vague enough for Zelensky to feel comfortable. Even despite the pressure to recruit young people, which the president will use again to demand more weapons to equip them at the moment when he inevitably agrees to send them to the front, the entire discourse of the president-elect's entourage points to the continuation, at least temporarily, of the war until a better situation is achieved. Trump has indicated that he will not cease his support for Ukraine - which has already guaranteed the increase in supplies and financing for those countries that, according to Waltz, have gone from dreaming of the continuation of the eternal war to wishing for its end - Kellogg is giving itself a hundred days to see "what we do from there" and Waltz's mention of recruiting young people implies months of training and, therefore, of the continuation of the conflict. That is exactly the scenario that Zelensky is seeking, hoping that economic pressure, especially in the energy sector, will weaken Russia enough to force it to negotiate from an inferior position. Trump's peace is as powerful and conditional on achieving his goals as Zelensky's.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/01/14/31344/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Bezuglaya reported that in Ukraine they continue to send Air Force and Air Defense personnel to be butchered in the infantry, "denuding entire regions." This is not news since last fall.
There is a shortage of motivated personnel, mobilization plans have not been fulfilled, and desertion rates are growing. They are trying to scoop up personnel from wherever they can. Naturally, this has consequences - the enemy has long noted that, taking advantage of the weakening of mobile air defense groups, as well as the improvement of the drones themselves, the "Gerans" feel increasingly at ease during night raids.


***

Colonelcassad

Another underwater cable connecting Sweden, Finland, Lithuania and Germany has been damaged in the Baltic Sea. This was reported on January 13 by the SVT television channel.
"Today we can tell you that it has been established that there are traces of drag from an anchor, probably from the [Chinese bulk carrier] Yi Peng 3, not far from the NordBalt cable between Sweden and Lithuania," the publication quotes the words of the Minister of Civil Defense of Sweden Carl-Oskar Bohlin.
He specified that the country's Ministry of Defense links the damage to a Chinese vessel anchored 160 km from the shore.
According to the TV channel's material, the actions of the ship's crew could have been deliberate, and the ship's captain could have been recruited by Russian special services.


Just in time for the deployment of a NATO naval group in the Baltic.

***

Colonelcassad
Regarding the situation in the Kursk direction (data from the Ministry of Defense):

Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 230 servicemen, three tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle, six armored combat vehicles, seven automobiles, four self-propelled artillery units, two mortars, an electronic warfare station , and a counter-battery warfare station have been destroyed .

Units of the North group of forces defeated formations of a tank, four mechanized, three airborne assault brigades , a marine brigade and two territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Viktorovka, Goncharovka, Guevo, Kositsa, Kubatkin, Kurilovka, Lebedevka, Malaya Loknya, Makhnovka, Nikolayevka, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Novaya Sorochina, Pogrebki, Sverdlikovo and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Five enemy counterattacks were repelled .

▫️ Strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation and artillery fire hit enemy manpower and equipment in the areas of the settlements of Bondarevka, Dmitryukov, Kruglenke, 1st Knyazhiy, Martynovka, Melovoy, Mikhailovka, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Nikolsky, Yuzhny, as well as Basovka, Belovody, Veselovka, Vodolaghi, Zhuravka, Obody and Yunakovka in the Sumy region. Over the past 24 hours , the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 230 servicemen, destroyed three tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle, six armored combat vehicles, seven cars, four self-propelled artillery units, two mortars, an electronic warfare station and a counter-battery station .



▫️ In total, during the military operations in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 51,430 servicemen, 300 tanks, 229 infantry fighting vehicles, 166 armored personnel carriers, 1,539 armored combat vehicles, 1,456 cars, 358 artillery pieces, 44 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including 13 HIMARS and six MLRS made in the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile system launchers, eight transport and loading vehicles, 93 electronic warfare stations, 14 counter-battery radars, four air defense radars, 30 units of engineering and other equipment, including 15 engineering obstacle clearing vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit, as well as eight armored repair and recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle.

The operation to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces formations continues.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

The strange bedfellows of Evgeny Prigozhin

Prigozhin and: Budanov, Kapustin 'White Rex', Khodorkovsky, Navalnites, Azovite (FSB agent?) Korotktikh, Rusich's Milchakov and dead puppies. Emelyan Pugachev and Timothy McVeigh. Part I.
Events in Ukraine
Jan 13, 2025

Barely a year has gone by, and now the name Prigozhin seems more like a meme than reality.

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For those who weren’t watching the news on June 23-25, 2023: Evgeny Prigozhin was a former cook who spent some time in prison for armed robbery and eventually rose quite high in Russian politics. In the 2000s and 2010s he was dipped his entrepreneurial hand into troll bot armies, school food contracts, and overseas private military activity - the famous PMC Wagner. This, despite the fact that private military companies are formally illegal in Russia. His Wagner forces played a major role in the war in Ukraine, particularly in the war for Bakhmut (August 2022 - May 2023).

Prigozhin became more and more vocal, advertised both by mainstream Russian TV and his legions of highly agitated and relatively influential patriotic military telegrams ('Z-telegrams’). His shtick was painting himself as the People’s critic of official corruption and incompetence. A ‘pravdorub’, as they say, which comes from the word ‘pravda’ - truth, and ‘rubit’’ – to chop, cut, or hack. His criticism became so intense that many wondered if there was some cunning Kremlin 5d chess behind it.



Then on June 4, Ukraine’s much-awaited counter-offensive began. Things weren’t going swimmingly, until the event that had been so eagerly prognosed so many times by Russia-hawks took place – Russia was in turmoil, collapsing under the blows of a new 1917! On June 23, Prigozhin launched his bizarre coup, marching on Moscow with his troops - and getting quite close. If you were watching western news at the time - or Ukrainian - you would have noticed the euphoria. Putin will be overthrown by a revolution, Ukraine will win!

But not to be. Though his ‘March for Justice’ was hardly bloodless, he decided for whatever reason to turn away and never entered Moscow. Prigozhin reached an agreement with the Russian government - through the mediation of the charismatic Belarussian president Lukashenko - to withdraw his forces to Belarus.

Prigozhin was labelled a traitor by the Russian government as soon as his ‘march for justice’ began. He died in a helicopter crash several weeks later. His remaining forces were slowly integrated into the Russian army. The virulent militarist telegram channels loyal to him quietened down. But as we will see in this series, his spooky sponsors in the Russian elite have hardly disappeared, and his old media empire has turned towards new methods of social division.

The events of Prigozhin’s ‘coup’ remain as murky as ever. What happened? Why did Prigozhin come so close to victory? Why was he allowed to escape unharmed? With rhetoric that would be justly described as treasonous by any army (with absolutely no parallels in Ukraine), why wasn’t he neutralized long before June 2023? Why was the west banking on the victory of an ultranationalist military leader generally assumed by western media to be the apotheosis of the Russian mafiosi war criminal?

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Some deep insights from the Daily Mail

It’s time for us to become immersed in Russia’s hall of mirrors. The so-called Kremlin towers are ever locked in mutual struggle. It’s just as entertaining as Ukraine’s palace intrigues. And though certainly different in many ways, it is also quite reminiscent. And as we dig deeper into this story, we will find that sometimes the same people are involved.

The Budanov-Prigozhin connection

Today’s post will only be looking at Prigozhin himself. The sequels will go into the greater constellation of Russian monarcho-fascists suspected by some Russian analysts of concealing their pro-western fifth columnist nature using mystical Russian nationalism. This article will go into the most obvious and recent link between them and western forces – that between Prigozhin and Budanov.

Kyryllo Budanov is the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, HUR. Since 2022, he has become the chief patron of Ukraine’s militarized neo-nazis, as I wrote here. He is also regularly feted by the western press, who attribute his (purported) many successes to his constant and thorough cooperation with the CIA and MI6. Ukrainian military analysts like Yury Butusov, by the way, accuse Budanov of running pointless, bloody PR actions. Butosov claimed that the SBU (Security Services of Ukraine). Budanov’s big competitor, are much more effective.

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From this NYT article.

But one would assume that such a Ukrainian patriot wouldn’t be one to praise Prigozhin, right? Wrong. It began with Budanov supporting Prigozhin talking points against the regular Russian army. In an April 2023 PBS interview, Budanov mentioned a topic that would become one of Prigozhin’s bugbears. This was the campaign by the Russian MoD to unify private military groups under its command, particularly Prigozhin’s Wagner. This would be constantly referred to by Prigozhin as an example of ‘corrupt top brass’ trying to take over his ultra-effective super-soldiers and convert their stunning battlefield prowess into new country dachas. Eventually, it would be one of his main stated motivations behind his ‘March for Justice’.

Of course, the fact that Budanov mentioned this isn’t enough to prove links between the two. But it does seem to show that Budanov was eager to emphasize sources of friction between Prigozhin and the regular Russian army. This would support a first, safe hypothesis on the Prigozhin-Budanov relationship – that Budanov was interested in publicizing and exaggerating a potential split inside the Russian army, both with the hopes of accelerating it, and, given that this was on the American PBS, of encouraging Americans to keep supporting Ukraine. Why not, given that Russia’s collapse is imminent?

But things got more interesting in May. On May 13, the Washington Post released a long interview with Zelensky, filled with exciting tidbits about the imminent counter-offensive. But the most interesting part was here - note that WaPo brings up these details despite them not having been publicly leaked yet:

Q: The Washington Post has obtained documents that we have not published details about yet. We would like to ask you about some information there and also to give you the opportunity to respond to what is in there. One of them says that on January 31, you suggested occupying parts of Russia along the border for future leverage in the negotiations. Is that true?

A: Hardly (laughs).


Of course, Ukraine’s operation to occupy Russia’s Kursk operation began in August 2024. But here is what I really wanted to get to:

Q: The documents indicate that HUR, your intelligence directorate, has back-channel contact with Yevgeniy Prigozhin that you were aware of, including meeting with Yevgeniy Prigozhin and HUR officers. Is that true?

A: This is a matter of [military] intelligence. Do you want me to be convicted of state treason? And so, it’s very interesting, if someone is saying that you have documents, or if someone from our government is speaking about the activities of our intelligence, I would also like to ask you a question: With which sources from Ukraine do you have contact? Who is talking about the activities of our intelligence? Because this is the most severe felony in our country. Which Ukrainians are you talking to?

Q: I talked to officials in government, but these documents are not from Ukraine, they are from …

A: It doesn’t matter where the documents are from. The question is with which Ukrainian official did you talk? Because if they say something about our intelligence, that’s treason. If they say something about a specific offensive plan of one general or another, this is also treason. That’s why I asked you, which Ukrainians are you talking to?

Q: About these specific documents? You are the first person I am talking to about them.

A: Okay.

Q: And I can read you what information exactly there is about Prigozhin and the HUR. On February 13, Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence, informed you about a Russian plan to destabilize Moldova with two former Wagner associates. Budanov informed you that he viewed the Russian scheme as a way to incriminate Prigozhin because “we have dealings” with him. You instructed Budanov to inform Moldovan President Maia Sandu, and Budanov told you that the GUR had informed Prigozhin that he would be labeled a traitor who has been working with Ukraine. The document also says that Budanov expected the Russians to use details of Prigozhin’s secret talks with the GUR and meetings with GUR officers in Africa …

A: Listen, to be honest, well, you just read something, you say something. I just don’t understand where you get it, whom you talk to and so on. You talk about how I met with Budanov. This suggests that you — how do you put it? It looks like you have people who have some records or you have some evidence or you have something, because that’s what it looks like. You are again doing, I apologize, what you were doing before. You are releasing some sort of information that does not help our state to attack and does not help us to defend our state. So, I don’t quite understand what you are talking about. I don’t quite understand your goal. Is your goal to help Russia? I mean, that means we have different goals. If I’m not sitting at the same table with them, I don’t quite understand what we’re talking about. Each of these inquiries simply demotivates Ukraine, demotivates certain partners to help Ukraine. Well, one way or another, I just don’t understand your goal.

Q: Our goal is not to help Russia.

A: Well, it looks different.


Sorry about including the last section, but who doesn’t love a bit of incoherent Zelensky traitor-mongering? Immortal lines like ‘You are again doing, I apologize, what you were doing before.’

On May 14, the Washington Post released an article on these ‘leaks’ that it had unique access to. Note what I underlined in the following text – ‘previously unreported’ leaks, quite paradoxical indeed. Titled Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says, it describes events that apparently took place in late January, with Prigozhin making his offer because of the high losses his troops were suffering in Bakhmut:

Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them. Prigozhin conveyed the proposal to his contacts in Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, with whom he has maintained secret communications during the course of the war, according to previously unreported U.S. intelligence documents leaked on the group-chat platform Discord.

It then implies that Prigozhin may have given up the positions of regular Russian army troops as part of his ongoing feud with the Ministry of Defense, though it admits there is no proof.

Two Ukrainian officials confirmed that Prigozhin has spoken several times to the Ukrainian intelligence directorate, known as HUR. One official said that Prigozhin extended the offer regarding Bakhmut more than once, but that Kyiv rejected it because officials don’t trust Prigozhin and thought his proposals could have been disingenuous.

A U.S. official also cautioned that there are similar doubts in Washington about Prigozhin’s intentions. The Ukrainian and U.S. officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information….

Against that tense backdrop, Prigozhin has carried on a secret relationship with Ukrainian intelligence that, in addition to phone calls, includes in-person meetings with HUR officers in an unspecified country in Africa, one document states. Wagner forces provide security to several governments on the continent.

The leaked U.S. intelligence shows Prigozhin bemoaning the heavy toll that fighting has taken on his own forces and urging Ukraine to strike harder against Russian troops.

According to one document, Prigozhin told a Ukrainian intelligence officer that the Russian military was struggling with ammunition supplies. He advised Ukrainian forces to push forward with an assault on the border of Crimea, which Russia has illegally annexed, while Russian troop morale was low. The report also referred to other intelligence noting that Prigozhin was aware of plummeting morale among Wagner forces and that some of his fighters had balked at orders to deploy in the Bakhmut area under heavy fire, for fear of suffering more casualties.

What about Prigozhin’s response to these accusations? The same WaPo article writes:

The documents also suggest that Kyiv suspects, or may know, that the Kremlin is aware of Prigozhin’s communications with Ukrainian intelligence, if not his secret negotiations over Bakhmut.

One document, based on “sigint” — or intercepted communications — states that Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, “expected the Russians to use details of Prigozhin’s secret talks with the HUR and his meetings with their officers in Africa to make him appear to be a Ukrainian agent.” It doesn’t specify whether Budanov suspects Moscow may already know that Prigozhin is talking to HUR officers.

When informed that U.S. intelligence documents revealed Prigozhin’s communications with Ukrainian intelligence, the mercenary commander appeared to make light of the situation. “Yes of course I can confirm this information, we have nothing to hide from the foreign special services. Budanov and I are still in Africa,” Prigozhin wrote on Sunday via his Telegram channel.

In a subsequent, rambling audio file released Monday, Prigozhin didn’t directly respond to a question about his offer to disclose Russian troop positions in exchange for a Ukrainian pullback in Bakhmut.


What about Budanov’s response to these allegations? Days later, on May 16 2023, Budanov was quite complimentary towards Prigozhin in an interview. ‘80% of what he says is the truth’, he said. ‘Wagner has proven itself to be maximally effective, while the Russian MoD has been maximally ineffective.’ He continued on the 17th, claiming that Prigozhin would certainly triumph in his showdown with the Russian ministry of defence. ‘It will all end with a tribunal’, he predicted.

The Atlantic trace

So what were these leaks with strange intel on Prigozhin? More than 300 pages of confidential US intelligence reports on the war of Ukraine were ‘leaked’ on the gaming chat space Discord, and later to 4chan. The Washington Post claimed that it had been assured by its own US government contacts that the leaks were real. With the exception, of course, of a page depicting Russian casualty numbers much lower than the standard western estimates.

Meanwhile, Ukraine claimed that the leaks were Russian disinformation. Not only were Russian casualty levels too low and Ukrainian casualties too high, but the leaks also showed that Ukraine was burning through western artillery supplies with little effect. But who cares about such a predictable Ukrainian reaction.

More interesting was the response from the Grey Zone, one of the largest pro-Wagner telegram channels, part of Prigozhin’s formidable online array of heavy artillery. It claimed that the leaks were ‘disinformation of Western intelligence in order to mislead our command to identify the enemy’s strategy in the upcoming counteroffensive’. This perspective was reported by WaPo itself.

While the NYT was the first western media publication to report on the leaks on April 6, WaPo went on to play a major role in disseminating – or creating – the ‘leaks’. On April 16, they claimed to have found the Discord server where the image had first been posted. Apparently, the server - ‘Thug Shaker Central - had existed for several years, but only had a few dozen young, lonely members. They were slowly fed top-secret information from US military intelligence by the 21 year-old National Guard member eventually imprisoned by the leaks, Jack Teixeira. He apparently began posting photos of classified documents themselves from late 2022 onwards.

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Teixeira would be sentenced to 15 years

But in April, there was no mention in the western press about Prigozhin’s place in the ‘discord leaks’. It was only with the May 14 interview I reproduced above that WaPo would introduce the Prigozhin factor. Recall, also, that this was prefaced with ‘The Washington Post has obtained documents that we have not published details about yet.’

A May 15 article went into more details on these paradoxical ‘leaks’ that only it had access to, and was choosing of its own volition to ‘release’. It claimed ‘The Post also obtained a number of previously unreported documents from a trove of images of classified files posted on a private server on the chat app Discord’. PressWatcher claims that after its own inquiry to the Post regarding the source of its information

that language was modified to become both less and more revealing: “The Post also reviewed scores of additional secret documents, most of which have not been made public.”

Both descriptions are currently available on the Washington Post’s article. PressWatcher went on to quote a journalist at BellingCat (itself an outlet with well-known MI6 ‘cooperation’, but anyway):

Aric Toler, the online sleuth who tracked down the sources of the documents, told me more.

Toler is the director of research and training at Bellingcat, an independent investigative site based in the Netherlands. He now has a free-lance contract with the New York Times, where he has contributed to several articles.

The Times has only published articles based on the 100 or so documents that Toler found publicly available. That’s not the case with the Post.

“They got 300-400 leaks from their 17-year-old source who downloaded them from Discord,” Toler wrote to me via Twiter. “They’ll keep doing it indefinitely until all the ones they deem newsworthy are published, I assume.”

“There are 200 to 300 that were not public and exclusively held by Wapo,” Toler wrote.

One Discord server was called “Thug Shaker.” Most of the documents posted there were deleted before the leak gained public attention.

“The 17 year old kid was saving them from thug shaker as they were being posted,” then “gave his cache of them to wapo,” Toler wrote. Shortly after, the FBI raided his house.


From what I can tell, the information about Prigozhin’s supposed ties with Budanov would have never gone public without the intervention of the Washington Post. In a December 2023 article on the matter, WaPo seemed to gloat on its close work with the Biden administration:

The leak also raised doubts in Ukraine about Washington’s ability to keep sensitive secrets — a concern noted by Zelensky’s top advisers in September ahead of his trip to Washington to discuss war plans with Biden.

“Don’t share anything with Biden you don’t want on the front page of The Washington Post,” an adviser warned Zelensky during a pre-trip meeting, according to a person familiar with the conversation.


What to make of all this? I certainly don’t think it should be controversial to assert, at minimum, that the US government considered it beneficial to spread information about supposed Budanov-Prigozhin connections.

Pan-Slavic networks

But was this only a psyop to foment division between Wagner and the regular army? Ever since the mutiny, it has become standard for mainstream Russian media to call Prigozhin a western agent - they speculate that he started working for them while he was in Africa. The fact that even before the ‘leaks’ Budanov had been supporting Prigozhin in his struggle seems to lend credence to some kind of link between the two.

I believe that both were true – Prigozhin did have connections with Budanov, and publicizing these connections was a calculated psyop. Why do I believe in Prigozhin-Budanov links? They frequented the same circles. Both Prigozhin and Budanov employ(ed) a wide range of neo-nazi adventurers from the football hooligan movement. Many of the top military nazis in Ukraine grew up and spent much of their life in Russia, as well as spending some time in Russian/Belorussian law enforcement.

On the Russian side, there was of course Dmitry Utkin, a top figure in Wagner who many claimed was a neo-nazi. So little is known about the man that I won’t venture to say anything about it. But the Rusich unit always cooperated closely closely with Wagner, and it is led by the proud neo-nazi Aleksey Milchakov, who was also famous in 2011 for filming himself killing and eating a puppy. Rusich is filled with ‘paganists’ with black sun symbolism and the like. Again, I recommend my article on Slavic nazi-paganism.

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The Rusich telegram

Ironically, one of Rusich’s most famous acts was its defeat of the neo-nazi Ukrainian unit ‘Aidar’ in 2015. From a dozen to 30 Aidar fighters were killed - many burned alive, with Milchakov filming himself carving his unit’s symbol (a kolovrat, the slavic swastica visible above) into a burnt man’s cheek. Photos were copiously posted online. Apparently they also rearranged the organs inside one of the dead men as well. They have also been particular vocal about the need to kill Ukrainian POWs, as well as apparently beheading them on camera - a topic whose political motivations I’ll cover in my next installment of the series.

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Milchakov

Milchakov also fought on Wagner’s side in Syria. Bellingcat also claimed Milchakov was the man photographed holding a severed human head in Palmyra. Milchakov happily confirmed.

On the other side, take one of the most notorious and demented personalities in Ukraine’s Azov movement, Sergei Korotkikh ‘Botsman’. Born in Tolyatti, Russia, he moved to Belarus and worked for the country’s KGB in the 1990s. He claimed to have been fired for his ultrarightwing oppositional activities.

Korotkikh was one of the most prominent fascists in 2000s Russia, friends with Russia’s most famous nazi, Tesak (who later died in a Russian jail). Back then, neo-nazis in Russias were killing hundreds of muslim migrants a year, and that only officially. Korotkikh and Tesak are thought to have been the men involved in one of the most famous videos from 2007, ‘execution of a Tadzhik and a Dagi’, where two Muslim men are decapitated and shot after stating ‘we have been captured by Russian national socialists’. Korotkikh was given Ukrainian citizenship in 2015 for his ‘bravery’ fighting alongside the Azov batallion.

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Korotkikh (left) with then-president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko

It shouldn’t be surprising that Russia’s neo-nazi scene is just as infested by government operatives as America’s. Ukrainian left-lib media, always eager to claim that all nazis in Ukraine are Russian, also claimed that Botsman worked with the Russian FSB. Botsman was also linked to a range of politicial assassinations in Ukraine. The man is a whole universe unto himself that could be picked apart endlessly, but I’ll try restrain myself.

Korotkhikh has apparently been living in Ukraine since 2004. But he always had plenty of friends who remained in Russia, which until 2013 was the undisputed capital of the pan-slavic fascist movement. In the 2000s, Russian and Ukrainian fascists saw little if any difference between each other – recall the famous photo of Ukrainian nationalists hanging out with Russia’s Alexander Dugin in 2005. ‘Illiberalism’ also wrote a quite interesting article about the long-standing contacts and cooperation between Dugin and Azovite ideologists.

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From right to left: Dugin, Korchinsky (I’ve written about this unhinged, semi-ironic Ukrainian nationalist here a lot), Arestovych.

The Russian government started cracking down on neo-nazis from 2011, the year of the Bolotnaya protests, an era when liberals like Navalny allied with ethnonationalists like Tesak and co. This repression intensified after the 2013-2014 events in Ukraine, an anti-Russian coup where neo-nazis played a prominent role. Those who didn’t flee to Ukraine often tried to downplay their political views and, like any respectable rightwinger, join the police or the army. And there were certainly places for them to go where they didn’t have to hide their views too much - Wagner and Rusich.

It’s possible to elaborate at length on these strange crossovers. I’ll stop myself by simply noting that there would have surely been channels for communication between Budanov and Prigozhin. Budanov himself grew up in Odessa’s football hitlerite hooligan scene, and since 2022 has been the main state patron of Ukraine’s neo-Nazis.

And when Prigozhin’s march for justice took place, the whole gamut of Russian neo-nazis and liberal oppositions supported him. Milchakov of Rusich naturally, though he claimed that there had to be a peaceful resolution between the ‘just demands’ of Wagner, ‘the best fighting force in the country’, and the government. He also posted the following photo of him holding up his unit’s kolovrat swastica on the background of Wagner paraphernalia.

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Denis Kapustin of the Ukrainian-funded ‘Russian Volunteer Corps’, another open Hitlerite, also vocally supported Prigozhin at the height of the ‘revolt’:

I think that, even though we stand on opposite sides of the barricades and have different views on the future of the Russian Federation, I can quite sincerely call him a patriot of Russia, without sarcasm or irony. <...> And here we have: an ambitious, angry, popular figure among the people and the military, a patriot commanding his own private army; a population demoralized by a prolonged and bloody war, and a vague political authority. Get ready!

Emigre liberal oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky also supported Prigozhin. Khodorkovsky is also among the supporters of Kapustin’s Russian Volunteer Corps. Top Navalnite politician Lyubov Sobol called on Prigozhin to ‘crush the chekists’ (the early Soviet secret police, referring here to Putin and the Russian government as a whole). As we’ll see later in this article, there are other parallels between Navalny and Prigozhin.

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There has also been plenty of praise of Prigozhin by Ukrainian fascists. I’ve written already here before about how top Azovites have expressed admiration for Prigozhin. Here is what I wrote about Azov’s Dmytro Kukharchuk on July 7, 2024:

Kukharchuk spent a great deal of his interview talking ыabout his role in mobilizing prisoners. He compared himself to now-deceased (…) former leader of PMC Wagner, Evgeny Prigozhin, who he called ‘our most talented enemy’, an assessment his Ukrainska Pravda interviewer agreed with. Kukharchuk happily admitted that he often watched the famous videos of Prigozhin’s monologues at Russia’s prisons for inspiration.


Above, you can see Kukharchuk in more carefree days as a football hooligan

To this day, I often encounter Ukrainian military telegrams and commentators semi-ironically praising Prigozhin. The psywar to split the Russian army has failed, so I don’t think they feel particularly compelled for operational reasons to praise Prigozhin on Ukrainian media that isn’t watched by any Russians anyway. At the very least, they simply admire Prigozhin’s brutality. Maybe they were also appreciative of his role in driving tens of thousands (by Prigozhin’s own estimates) of Russian soldiers to their death at Bakhmut.

Russian theories
Russian politicians also have their own view on the Prigozhin affair. Let’s turn to Oleg Matveichev’s account. A senator in Russia’s Duma (parliament) from the ruling United Russia party, Matveichev is a staunch opponent of Prigozhin and his allies. His ideology can be considered one of Russian imperial statism.

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Historically, this ideology has tended to be opposed to Russian ethno-nationalists, precisely because of their tendency to divide the multi-national empire into ethnic statelets. As I wrote in my article on nazi paganism, the ideal western allies in Russia are the same as those in Ukraine - a mix of ‘liberal’ ethnonationalists and open hitlerites. The latter would love to see Russia drastically shrink by ridding itself of all territories inhabited by the Muslim nations they so despite. Just consider the case of the Ukrainian-created ‘Russian Volunteer Corps’, filled with the most absurd esoteric Hitlerites.

Of course, the ideologies of Russian ethnonationalism and Russian imperialism do cooperate at times. But it’s always been a rather abusive relationship. If you follow Russian (and Ukrainian) nationalists, their main preoccupation is cursing Putin’s ‘bolshevism/globalism/cultural marxism’ – ie, his admission of millions of non-Russian labour migrants and his constantly reiterated belief in the multinational basis of Russian state ideology. More on that topic in the sequel to this article – Prigozhin’s old Z-telegram channels have switched their attention after the big man’s death towards stirring up anti-migrant hatred.

Anyway, onto Matveichev’s ruminations on Prigozhin. He has theories on the foreign roots of just about every non-statist political tendency in Russia, from the liberals to the marxists. He is also intellectually honest enough to happily admit that state policies were often responsible for the fact that Russian citizens were willing to go along with said revolutionary ideologies. But for him, the danger of statelessness anarchy is worse.

Characteristically for those of his persuasion, his answer on Prigozhin involves travelling 300 years back in time. He delivers his stunning historical parallel in a 2024 interview - that Prigozhin is the modern reincarnation of Emelyan Pugachev. Who is Pugachev? Time for some more Cossackophilia.

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In short, Pugachev was he was a Russian Cossack who raised up one of Russia’s largest ever peasant uprisings in 1773-1775. Claiming to be the dead Tsar Peter III, he roused up thousands of slaves, serfs, and ethnic minorities, with the main aim of killing nobles, in the short-term anyway. One can speculate whether a victorious Tsar Pugachev would have abolished serfdom, but I tend to be skeptical towards the great promises of the Cossack ‘revolutionaries’. Especially since I agree with Matveichev on the parallels between him and Prigozhin.

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A painting of the Pugachev uprising by V.Nepyanov

No matter how you judge it, the Pugachev revolt played a huge role in Russian history. It led to perhaps the most lasting and significant centralization and solidification of imperial under Empress Catherine the Great. It also played a role in the dissolution of Ukraine’s Cossack parastate, the Zaporizhzhian sich. This event would come to play a major role in the martyrology of Ukraine’s nationalist historiography.

Anyone with interest in Russian history finds Pugachev fascinating. The great Soviet historian Pokrovsky bemoaned Pugachev’s decision not to march on Moscow at a time when he had resoundingly defeated imperial forces - as a result, they had time to reorganize and defeat him. This tendency not to make good on one’s gains was shared not only by Prigozhin but also by Ukraine’s other great (and similarly historically ambiguous and parapolitical) Cossack revolutionary Bohdan Khmelnitsky, as I wrote here.

The revolt was also memorialized in countless works of Russian literature, most famously in Pushkin’s ‘the Captain’s Daughter’. Pushkin’s verdict would become one of the most quoted lines of Russian prose:

God save us from seeing a Russian revolt, senseless and merciless.

Matveichev also has quite a negative view of Pugachev. But he criticizes Pushkin’s conception of the revolt as a ‘senseless’ manifestation of Russian anarchy. Matveichev’s argues that Pugachev and Prigozhin’s similarity lies in their both being unwitting foreign agents. For those particularly interested, this view on Pugachev is all laid out in detail in his 500 page book on the topic, released in 2024 and available freely online (among his ideological idiosyncrasies is relentless criticism of intellectual property rights).

According to Matveichev, the influential aristocrat Nikita Panin and local freemasonry were plotting along with British interests to set up a ‘noble’s republic’ in Russia. As I wrote in older articles, the Russian nobility fervently admired the Polish Lithuanian commonwealth (PLC), where nobles had total power to exploit, torture and kill their peasants, unlike the Russian empire, where nobles complained of cruel persecution by the Tsar.

There were also significant political-economic differences. The economic historical Immanuel Wallerstein argued that the PLC was purely economically dependent on its agricultural exports to western Europe, while the Russian empire managed to maintain its economic sovereignty. For those interested, I recommend volume I of Norman Davies’ God’s Playground to read more about the perpetual deindustrialization and economic regression characteristic of Poland’s ‘noble paradise’, and hell for peasants.

Back to Matveichev’s theory. He claims that Panin enrolled Pugachev in his devious plans during Pugachev’s (quite decorated) service in the Russo-Turkish war of 1768-1774 (Pugachev deserted in the early 1770s). He also claims that French advisors fought on Pugachev’s side and provided financial support, and there were plans for the Turkish sultan to join in. The Poles, needless to say, were also involved. Pugachev’s uprising was taking place at the same time as the first partition of Poland (1772) and the Russo-Turkish war (1768-1774). Matveichev compares the Polish partition to the current ‘Special Military Operation’ to divide Ukraine.

However, Matveichev doesn’t believe that Pugachev was simply a paid agent. Instead, he believes that the illiterate Cossack was manipulated by a range of powerful forces. Indeed, the Russian politician believes that Pugachev was barely aware of what was going on. Matveichev speculates that Panin might have told Pugachev that he could save him from execution as long as he didn’t tell the imperial interrogators about his links with Panin.

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The host (left) appears quite confused by Matveichev’s historical constructions. The comments weren’t too positive either. Maybe I was the only one who enjoyed it.

It reminds me of Timothy McVeigh in his final weeks. Determined to perpetuate the ‘lone wolf’ narrative, willing even to accept the death sentence, convinced as he was by his handlers that he would be replaced with a double and sent on another mission.

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So what about Prigozhin? The parallels are obvious enough. Both were semi-private military forces employed by the Russian government in its border wars – the Cossacks were essentially the PMCs of the time. Both became too arrogant after their military successes. And they both managed to fight in or around Ukraine – Pugachev was particularly honoured for his bravery against the Turks in the 1770 battle of Bender. Bender is located in the separatist, pro-Russian province of Transnistria/ Pridnestrovie, located right on the border with Ukraine. Ukraine’s modern-day chocolate king ex-president Poroshenko grew up nearby, and has family in Bender.

Now, back to the present. Matveichev gave an interview on the topic of Prigozhin’s uprising as it was happening. His verdict was the same as that on Pugachev – Prigozhin was a ‘psychologically unstable individual’ who became utterly unhinged by his military successes. While Matveichev has the memorable line that ‘at first, in the 2000s, I hoped he would be a Russian Soros, stirring up pro-Russian revolution in Africa and Latin America’, he quickly realized that the man was an untrustworthy scammer.

He also denies that Prigozhin ever had much access to Putin, claiming that this was hugely overblown by Prigozhin and liberal pro-western oppositionists like Navalny. Keep in mind what I noted earlier about how liberal emigres in the Navalny orbit supported Prigozhin’s ‘March for Justice’. Keep in mind, also, that Navalny was quite a virulent anti-migrant racist until it became less profitable to say so openly. He was known for attending the fascist ‘Russian march’.

Matveichev claims that Navalny’s team was engaged in active PR support for Prigozhin in the leadup the coup. He also points out a similarity in rhetoric. Prigozhin used Navalny’s populist, anti-corruption rhetoric, but targeting top brass like Shoigu and Gerasimov for supposedly ruining military capabilities.

Matveichev goes on to criticize Prigozhin’s whole opposition to the army. Against Prigozhin’s laims of Russian military incompetence, Matveichev argues that the Russian strategy is and should be to wear down US support for Ukraine through an endless, expensive conflict, which doesn’t require Russian territorial advances. The idea is for Ukraine to become like Vietnam for the US through ‘methodical pulverization’, as opposed to Prigozhin, who ‘had to lay down the lives of 15 thousand boys for his own personal glory’.

He ends through a rousing call to obey chain of command. "We need to kill the Ukrainian, the Makhno in our head…The only thing that can defeat us is ourselves…We all become like Vlasov when we start pretending we know more than Putin, or Stalin, or Ekaterina…The masks are off, now we can identify all the Prigozhinite, Vlasovite pseudo-patriotic fifth columnists."

Matveichev’s take on Prigozhin can be summed up as follows: glorified by the Russian media, he got caught up in dark games that he may himself not have fully understood.

But Prigozhin surely wasn’t quite as unwitting. At the very least, he was literate. He also visited far more continents than Pugachev probably even knew existed.

Prigozhin lives…
My readers might know that one of the most popular memes surrounding Prigozhin is his supposed survival.

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‘One will try to save you, the others will try kill you. Choose wisely’. A meme with the wonderful photos of Prigozhin’s various disguises
There were also the same myths about Pugachev, who himself claimed to be the deceased Tsar Peter III. Just like there are reasons to believe that Timothy McVeigh wasn’t truly executed on June 11, 2001.

But no matter if Prigozhin the man lives, the forces he represented certainly haven’t died.

Why was Prigozhin so glorified by wartime Russian media? Why were his constant attacks on the Russian army and state tolerated, when people who stated far milder things were imprisoned? Who stood behind Prigozhin? In which Kremlin tower did Wagner’s patron reside? Such will be the topic of the next article. Luckily, Matveichev has plenty of thoughts on the matter as well.

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... -of-evgeny

Great work.

******

Ukraine Attacked Compressor Station on Turkstream Pipeline

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TurkStream’s trajectory. X/ @citoyenneFrance


January 13, 2025 Hour: 7:39 am

This 900-kilometer pipeline has become crucial since January 1, when Ukraine suspended the transit of Russian gas.
On Monday, Russia’s Ministry of Defense denounced that the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked a compressor station of the TurkStream gas pipeline located in Russia’s Krasnodar region.

“On January 11, 2025, the Kyiv regime, with the goal of cutting off gas supplies to European countries, attempted to attack the infrastructure of the Russkaya compressor station in the village of Gai-Kodzor, which pumps gas through the TurkStream pipeline, using nine unmanned aerial vehicles,” the official statement said.

All the drones involved in the attack were shot down, but fragments from one of them caused minor damage to a building and equipment at the compressor station.

Nevertheless, the facility is operating normally, and no interruptions to the gas supply were recorded, the Ministry of Defense assured.


The consequences of the drone fragments’ impact were quickly addressed by employees of the gas consortium Gazprom, they added.

TurkStream, spanning more than 900 kilometers, was inaugurated five years ago and has become crucial since January 1, when Ukraine suspended the transit of Russian gas.

The pipeline crosses the Black Sea, connecting the Russian city of Anapa with Kiyiköy in Turkey, supplying Russian gas to both the Turkish and European markets, thus bypassing Ukrainian territory.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/ukraine- ... -pipeline/

******

Shelling of Bryansk. 01/13/2025
January 13, 22:30

The enemy shelled Bryansk with ATACMS missiles.
A large number of missiles were launched.
There were no hits in Bryansk itself. The explosions occurred in the area of ​​the local chemical plant that utilizes ammunition and produces explosives. No secondary detonations were reported at the plant.
It is unknown whether there were direct hits or missile debris. Some of the missiles were shot down by air defense forces.

It can be expected that in the coming week the enemy will escalate as much as possible with attacks, terrorist acts, and probable offensive actions on the ground in order to reverse the unfavorable trends on the front line in most directions.

P.S. In the evening we took Neskuchnoye and reached Vremyevka. Velikaya Novosyolka is approaching collapse.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9609973.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Jan 15, 2025 1:02 pm

Donbass, Kursk and the rear
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 01/15/2025

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“We will wait for concrete initiatives,” said the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, in a press conference yesterday, adding that “once I am president and formulate a definitive position on Ukrainian affairs, of course, we will study it.” Caution reigns in Moscow, aware that during his first term in office Donald Trump was tough on Russia and all its allies – especially Venezuela, which was subjected to an attempt at regime change and a tough economic blockade that he also tightened against Iran, Russia’s main partner in the Middle East – although the Kremlin cannot hide a glimmer of hope that may soon prove wrong. “The mere fact that people are starting to talk more about the realities on the front is probably something to be welcomed,” Lavrov added.

On the ground, Ukraine's difficulties continue in Toretsk-Dzerzhinsk and Velyka Novosyolka, but they have ended in Kurajovo, a city lost to Ukraine last week and which has ceased to be mentioned in the war reports, which are now focusing on the alleged Ukrainian counterattacks in Shevchenko, west of the city. Claiming to have captured two North Korean soldiers, Kiev continues to see Kursk as the place where it can demonstrate to its partners that it still has the capacity to defend and, above all, to attack. However, not even its allies see great news in the Russian adventure of Zelensky and Syrsky. A report published by The Washington Post echoes the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the parts of Kursk where Russian troops had begun to make progress. “However, now that we are about a week into the new operation in Kursk, progress appears to be scant: Ukraine has made very modest gains in some areas, while Russia is steadily advancing on the left flank and taking prisoners. Ukraine has held a foothold in the region since August, but has been losing territory as Russia, determined to retake it, has concentrated intense firepower there.” Maintaining a presence in Kursk – or expanding it, as kyiv has tried to do, so far unsuccessfully – has been deemed so important as to sacrifice the defensive effort in Donbass, hampered by manpower needs on Russian soil.

As both the current National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, and the man who will take over from him, Mike Waltz, have pointed out this week, personnel problems are weighing down Ukraine. The solution they propose, lowering the age of conscription to 18, is not to the liking of the president, who is aware that the country cannot afford to send that generation to die, and so continues with his efforts at forced conscription. Added to this are creative solutions. Weeks ago, it was announced that personnel theoretically dedicated to air defense were being assigned to front-line units as infantry soldiers, a claim that was extended yesterday to include aviation personnel. “Indeed, the Air Force is facing a critical situation with transfers to the infantry, as a result of which we may lose the aviation component as such,” said Serhiy Sternenko, former leader of the Praviy Sektor in Odessa and now a well-positioned and well-connected war activist in the third sector military sphere. A different and generally well-sourced person, Mariana Bezuhla, an elected MP from the Servant of the People party who is now at odds with the president's party, published a similar complaint. The Ukrainian effort is focused on training pilots to use Western aircraft - although only a handful of these aircraft have arrived in the country - and does not hide its lack of interest in its own fleet and personnel, which it prefers to distribute to cover losses in different units at the front.

Today, Ukraine’s successes are far from the dividing line between the two armies. “Europe is more optimistic that Trump will not abandon Ukraine,” Bloomberg wrote yesterday , highlighting a feeling that can also be attributed to the Ukrainian government, which is increasingly confident that, despite the insistence on a future negotiation, neither the supply of arms nor the pressure on Russia will be reduced. The words that Bankova hears from Trump’s entourage do not show the haste that seemed to exist during the campaign to resolve the Ukrainian question and Kiev seems confident that its previous negotiation with the United States can reach an agreement that represents a proposal that Russia cannot accept. Ukraine’s plan is simple: get Russia to reject the terms and be seen as the obstacle to peace, a circumstance that, according to Keith Kellogg’s proposal for the America First Policy Institute , would imply that the United States would increase the supply of arms to Ukraine to force the Kremlin to reach an agreement. This would activate the scenario of escalation to de-escalation that Israel has launched against Gaza and to which Zelensky aspires - somewhat naively considering the amount of material he would need - with few real intentions of de-escalation. Ukraine remains convinced that time is on its side and, as Mark Rutte admitted last week, the objective is to prolong the war.

With the euphoria of someone who does not have to worry about his economic situation, whose shortcomings are covered by the countries of the European Union, which are still committed to keeping Ukraine afloat as long as necessary , Kiev allows itself to boast of the future successes of the American sanctions against the Russian energy sector. The economic aspect is also important in Ukraine's main trump card against Russia, attacks on the rearguard. In this sense, Russia suffers similar difficulties to those of Ukraine when it comes to defending its airspace, which is better protected but much larger than Ukraine's, an aspect that Kiev takes particular advantage of with the use of drones. On Monday night, Ukraine launched a strong combined attack that caused damage to a chemical plant in Tula and another in Bryansk (supposedly converted into an ammunition factory) and an oil refinery in Saratov, as well as the Engels military base, strategic for aviation. Russia accuses Ukraine of having used American ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles as part of the attack, which also included the use of drones to saturate Russian defences.

“We are doing everything possible to ensure that the Engels fire brigade, which has just put out the flames after the previous attack, does not lose its job in the face of the increasingly difficult economic situation in Russia,” said the statement posted on Facebook by the 14th Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment, a unit whose deputy commander is Yehven Karas, known for his long career in the extreme right of Ukrainian nationalism. The name of the unit is, of course, a reference to the C14 led by Karas and includes the Nightingale (Nachtigall) battalion, a tribute to the division with which Roman Shujevich returned to Ukraine dressed in his Nazi uniform. Like Azov, whose members are already invited by Western powers, in this case the United Kingdom, to give speeches before the United Nations Security Council, Karas’ group has not only been completely normalised, but is given military and media prominence.

Russian advances on the front, fierce fighting in Kursk and attacks in the rearguard remain the most repeated notes in the war, which continues waiting for the new era to begin next week. Unlike in the case of the Middle East, where Trump's future envoy has already actively intervened to pressure Israel to accept a ceasefire, Keith Kellogg is waiting for the inauguration on January 20 to begin his work in search of a negotiation whose prospects are more than uncertain. "Russia is open to granting "security guarantees" to Ukraine but insists on containing "threats"," Europa Press headlined yesterday , implying a change in the Russian position. Moscow has always been open to negotiating and already offered security guarantees to Ukraine in 2022 as part of the Istanbul agreement. kyiv's allies, who according to the document agreed by Medinsky and Arajamia in Turkey were also required to offer security guarantees, leaked their refusal to the press instead of confirming them, and diplomacy finally broke down in June of that year, condemning the war to a chronic state and a sharp increase in destruction and death. Russia is ready to "offer security guarantees," Lavrov confirmed once again, later excluding from this possibility the parts of the country that, in the minister's words, have already exercised their self-determination, namely Crimea, Donbass and the territories of Kherson and Zaporozhye. This is where the change in Russia's position lies: Moscow remains willing to seek an end to the conflict with the signing of a treaty that guarantees the security of both countries, ideally in a reorganization of the continental security structure that will not happen in any way, although it is no longer willing to abandon a large part of the territories captured since February 24, 2022.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/01/15/31350/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
About the strike on underground gas storage facilities in Ukraine

This morning, our bomber aircraft launched a salvo of cruise missiles in the direction of Ukraine. The missile threat in Ukraine lasted for more than 2 hours.

All the missiles fired first reached the center of the country, and then flew in the direction of Western Ukraine. At the same time, drones and false targets were observed in different cities, which were targeted by the Ukrainian air defense.

There is no reliable information yet about what exactly was hit. Explosions were reported in the Lviv region, where, according to various sources, the targets were underground gas storage facilities (UGS).

In fact, there are more than a dozen such facilities operating in Ukraine that are protected, they are more difficult to hit, and Ukraine has been storing its reserves in such storage facilities since the beginning of the Second World War.

In the Lviv region alone, there are five such UGS, so if there was a hit, the damage would be significant. But we will warn you right away - hitting an UGS is a very difficult matter, so you should wait for details. Preliminary, the hits were in the Stryisky district. There is a large underground gas storage facility there.

As for the footage of the smoking substation in Kiev, it was not a hit, but equipment wear and tear. Due to regular power outages, the outdated substation simply could not withstand the voltage and caught fire. Such situations occur regularly, and as such preventive shutdowns continue, their number will increase.

***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of January 15, 2025 ) Key points:

- The West group destroyed more than 460 Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen in one day;

- Russian Air Defense shot down 2 Hammer bombs, 10 HIMARS shells, and 85 Ukrainian UAVs in one day;

- The Russian Armed Forces destroyed the infrastructure of military airfields, concentrations of manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 137 districts;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 200 servicemen in one day in the area of ​​responsibility of the East group;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 230 servicemen and a tank in the area of ​​responsibility of the South group;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 125 servicemen as a result of the actions of the North and Dnepr groups;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 560 servicemen and a Leopard tank in one day in the area of ​​the Center group.

- The Russian Armed Forces carried out a group strike with high-precision weapons and UAVs on gas and energy infrastructure facilities that provide the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.

▫️Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance into the depths of the enemy's defense. They defeated formations of three mechanized and airborne assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Konstantinopol, Novy Komar, Novosyolka, Razliv and Vremevka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 200 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, eight cars, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Bogdana" and an ammunition depot.

▫️Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of a mechanized brigade , two coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a territorial defense brigade and a national guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Shcherbaki, Blakytnoe, Orekhov, Novopokrovka in the Zaporizhia region, Dneprovskoe, Antonovka Nikolskoe and Ivanovka in the Kherson region. The enemy lost up to 95 servicemen, 13 vehicles, two field artillery guns.



▫️ Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and equipment in 137 areas.

▫️Air defense systems shot down two French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs , 10 US-made HIMARS multiple launch rockets , and 85 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

▫️In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 652 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 40,480 unmanned aerial vehicles, 590 anti-aircraft missile systems, 20,539 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,509 multiple launch rocket systems, 20,630 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 30,305 special military vehicles.

Google Translator

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

******

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Mobilization Mania Overtakes Ukraine
Simplicius
Jan 13, 2025

The topic of the week is Ukrainian mobilization: it’s virtually all that’s talked about, both within Ukrainian society and without.

Here’s a quick overview of just the signaling from the core of the Trump administration:

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https://www.ft.com/content/9fa3b0ac-e33 ... 745aba3004

‼️🇺🇸🇺🇦 Trump calls on Zelensky to lower the draft age in Ukraine to 18 , — FT

▪️The US President-elect intends to push Ukraine to lower the draft age in order to stabilize the front line in the country before direct negotiations with Russia.

▪️ "We will ask Ukraine to lower the mobilization age to 18 in order to attract hundreds of thousands of new troops," Trump's future national security adviser Waltz also said today.

➖ "Now they are conscripting from 26 years old (actually from 25), not from 18. It seems to me that many do not understand that they can attract hundreds of thousands of new military personnel."

▪️In his opinion, lowering the mobilization age is necessary to stabilize the front line so that some kind of agreement can be reached.

RVvoenkor


FT reports on an interview with Trump’s chosen National Security Advisor Mike Waltz who says Trump’s admin will push Ukraine to lower its mobilization age to 18:


Some have argued Waltz is not speaking for Trump, but on his own behalf. But it sounds like he’s carrying the internal message forward, though we’ll have to wait and see.

Some have read these statements as Trump subtly and deviously setting Zelensky up, forcing pressure on him in order to retain leverage and control over him for when the time comes—I’m not so convinced just yet. The ultimate question on everyone’s mind remains whether Trump will regress into the expected war hawk model of endlessly arming Ukraine, but there’s strong chance that Trump is merely trying to retain leverage on both sides, without totally giving in or rebuking either. By having Zelensky mobilize, Trump can put the expired Ukrainian president into an even more precarious position while at the same time putting perceived pressure on Putin to negotiate under the implication that US will continue to strengthen Kiev’s hand.

One commentator notes:

Trump's team is reviewing its approach to ending the conflict in Ukraine, European officials who are discussing the issue with the future US administration told the Financial Times.

One official noted that Trump's team is "obsessed with strength and the desire to look strong," which is why "they are rethinking their approach to Ukraine," he said.


Jake Sullivan again came out with a new call to lower Ukrainian mobilization age to 18, implying it’s historically ridiculous that Ukraine refuses to mobilize the prime fighting age: (Video at link.)

These words were echoed almost verbatim by former UK Defense Secretary Wallace, who said “in 1941, we mobilized women [too]” in urging Zelensky into a total people’s mobilization: (Video at link.)

A couple ‘insider reports’ give insight into the true depths of Ukraine’s mobilization problems.

From Rezident UA:

Inside: The failure of mobilization in Ukraine — the hidden scale of the problem

A number of our sources are confident that the situation with mobilization in Ukraine is much worse than reported in official reports and the media. Hidden data and international estimates indicate a deep crisis in the draft system, but they indicate only visible cases.
In various regions of Ukraine, aggression against military personnel is growing, and a steady trend towards hatred of any military man has formed in society. The opinion is formed in the offices of the authorities that the methods of mobilization in Ukraine are becoming more and more controversial, causing discontent among not only in society, but also among the military. The mobilization plan in 2024 was implemented by 25%, which did not allow to close the losses of the aircraft by even half. A separate problem is the increase in the number of desertion and a decrease in morale among Ukrainian military personnel, due to the low liquidity mobilized.


Russian source:

Mobilization in the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the population group from 18 to 25 years seems doomed to failure. There are about 500 thousand of them on the territory of the country, and at best 30-40 thousand people will be caught in a year. Of the 500 thousand, we still need to take into account who volunteered over the past 2 years.

But one of the recent issues with Ukrainian troop shortages in particular as explained by actual complaining AFU troops themselves was that Zelensky primarily continued to privilege using all newly mobilized men for the new ‘reserve brigades’ he was building for the purpose of creating big PR spectacles like the Kursk incursion or other such psyops. So while the actual real frontline brigades fighting for important strategic towns like Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Chasov Yar, Toretsk, etc., were getting a tiny trickle of new men, a bulk of fresh meat went to the new “11th Corps” with the 150+ series brigades.

Here’s one recent breakdown from a Russian source:

Body structure of the AFU. Kiev began to build it before the summer counteroffensive in 2023. Then there were two groups- the 9th and 10th Corps. Each included 5 brigades, later beaten or destroyed in the Zaporozhye region. There was also a reserve corps with the 5th brigade, which was divided into different sections and this practice was banned after that.

The 9th Corps now consists of three brigades: the 33rd and 47th Separate Mechanized Infantry Brigades, as well as 3 separate mechanized infantry brigades. This is the so-called elite.

10th corps: 116th and 118th Separate Infantry Brigades, recently converted to 117th Separate Infantry Brigade. The 11th corps is the most numerous right now, with as many as 10 brigades. This is due to its reserve status, all withdrawn brigades were transferred to it and replenished, thus accumulating there.

The 12th Corps is a dark horse, and it is likely that some brigades from the 11th
and 30th Marine Corps will be transferred to it in the near future. Its changes: 50 brigade recently became 40 separate coastal defense, moved to it. Similarly, the 39th Coastal Defense Brigade was created and assigned, out of 124 Territorial Defense brigades.

The 7th corps of the DSHV, which includes all airborne airmobile brigades. They are all smeared on the front, they have a huge turnover.


However, there have been claims that after months of outrage from high-ranking military officials, Zelensky has finally caved and allowed the more liberal replenishment of active combat brigades, at least according to “scoop”-chasing Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov:

Image

It’s not really a “win” as Tatarigami implies above—the situation was really a lose-lose zugzwang for Zelensky because staffing the regular brigades just barely forestalls the inevitable without allowing the possibility of any dark horse or ‘wild card’ attacks that could upset the balance and change the calculus. Zelensky’s ‘hedging’ of the war with these reserve brigades was a practical and smart choice as it gave him the potential to upset Russia’s applecart in some novel way. Without that, things merely return to the same inevitable attritional grind which is disastrous in calculated outlook for Ukraine.

Just throwing bodies—and increasingly less competent and motivated ones at that—at the line will not make much difference. Russian troops are increasingly seasoned, hardened, and veteran while Ukrainian ones are being replaced with ever-greener volkssturm.

Some now contend that Trump seeks to carve up the Western hemisphere—Greenland, Panama, Canada, et al—in a new Maga-Monroe Doctrine, then host a seminal Malta Conference-style sit down with Russia where spheres of influence will be hashed out, and that new ‘European security architecture’ sought-after by Putin would be codified.

Republicans in the US Congress have prepared a bill to purchase Greenland after Donald Trump takes office as president, Reuters writes.

The document was named the Make Greenland Great Again Act, and so far 10 congressmen are listed as its co-authors. If the bill is adopted, Trump will have the opportunity to begin negotiations with Denmark on the purchase of Greenland.


The problem still remains though that Trump simply cannot give up Ukraine entirely, while Putin cannot allow even a remotely threatening nationalist Ukrainian entity to exist and threaten Russia—whether it be NATO-aligned or not.

As such, it’s the ‘showdown of the century’ between immovable object and unstoppable force as neither Trump nor Putin can afford to lose face or be perceived as bending the knee. Each side represents the leadership position in the two emerging global poles—that’s right, China may be the economic driver of the Global South but Russia is the true spiritual leader in many ways. French philosopher Luc Ferry agrees: (Video at link.)

As such, the winner of this multipolar face off stands to author the globe’s spiritual and ideological direction for the coming century; neither side can budge.



A last few topical videos:

NATO head Mark Rutte grumbles Russia continues to produce more in three months than all of NATO in a year:
(Video at link.)



Kharkov deputy says the Ukrainian army is simply running out and a true heart to heart needs to happen between Zelensky and the people: (Video at link.)


"The army is running out. It's time for an adult conversation between the authorities and the population, otherwise the consequences will be critical," - Kharkiv deputy.

The President needs to conduct a detailed analysis and tell people that victory is impossible without help, - Kharkiv deputy Artem Revchuk. RVvoenkor




And lastly, on the topic of losses, confirming why it is precisely that Ukraine is suffering such troop shortages and why mobilization remains the final hot-button topic, this Ukrainian soldier confirms that back in Rabotino, his entire battalion of nearly 600 men was wiped out in a mere five days: (Video at link.)

Out of 600 AFU soldiers in Rabotino, 36 survived, testifies a Ukrainian soldier who was lucky to stay alive.

"We were taken to Rabotino with 600 men, and we were left with 36. They killed most of the battalion in 5 days. This is me telling you about my personal experience. I saw how 600 men were brought in. I was among them. There were 36 of us left"


https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/mob ... es-ukraine

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Brief report from the front, January 13, 2025
Marat Khairullin returns with illustrations by Mikhail Popov!
Zinderneuf
Jan 13, 2025

Part 1: The Russian Armed Forces have strengthened their position on the right bank of the Oskol

Image
ЛБС 10.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 10th, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Участок продвижения=Area of advancement.

In the Kupyansk direction, in the Dvurechnaya (Dvorichna) area, the Russian Armed Forces have taken full control of the forested zone, where they had previously begun to build a bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskol, and they have reached the Dvurechnaya-Kupyansk road, which runs along the heights. Having expanded the control zone to the south and southwest during the fighting, they have approached the settlement of Zapadnoye. Also, having crossed the Oskol to the south of the existing bridgehead, the Russian armed forces liberated Kalinovo (Kalynove), forming another bridgehead. Continuing the offensive, the Russian Armed Forces connected these two bridgeheads, strengthening their position on the right bank of the Oskol. Active clashes are underway in the area.

The advance to the heights in the area of ​​the settlement of Zapadnoye pushes back the enemy positions from which they carry out artillery strikes on the Russian forces in Dvurechnaya.

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ЛБС 02.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 2nd, 2025. Участок продвижения=Area of advancement.
In Chasov Yar, Russian forces completely liberated the Severny microdistrict and the territory of the former workshop No. 4 of the refractory plant (Завод огнеупоров*=refractory plant), gaining a foothold there.

We are consolidating our positions in the Desyaty microdistrict (within the area colored in red in the northern part of Chasov Yar, the former workshop No. 4 as well as the Severny microdistrict is also in this area) - our units are gradually moving west in the northern part of the city, strengthening their position there and creating a more advantageous configuration for further movement south to the high-rise area.

At the same time, the movement from the area of ​​the railway station, which is already under the control of our soldiers, in the direction of the large pond (Dneprovsky Reservoir, or ставок Днепровский*, the water just south of the area colored in red), will hit hard at the enemy’s supply routes in the central part of the city.

Considering that the enemy was driven out of the refractory plant, our units gained the commanding heights. At the refractory plant itself, we control most of its territory. The fighting is for the buildings (or rather, for what's left of them) in the western part of the plant's territory.

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ЛБС 17.9.2024=Line of Combat Contact September 17th, 2024. ЛБС 02.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 2nd, 2025. Участок продвижения=Area of advancement.
The fighting has also intensified northeast of Chasov Yar. Active clashes are taking place in the area of ​​Kalinovka (Kalinina), Grigorovka (Hryhorivka), and Orekhovo-Vasilyevka. Russian units entered the latter several days ago, having consolidated almost half of the settlement and the forest belts to the southeast of it.

Image
ЛБС 01.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 1st, 2024. ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Зона активных боев=Zone of active fighting.
Attempts to consolidate in the center of Shcherbinovka continue in the Toretsk sector. Attacks have begun in the direction of the settlement of Petrovka (Novospasskoye). In Toretsk itself, the liberation of the city from the enemy is entering its final phase. Most of its territory is under Russian control.

There are still active military operations in the west and southwest of Zabalka. The Central mine (Шахта Центральная*) and its eastern and northern (the highest) waste heaps are under our stable control. There are battles for full control of the western waste heap. North of the Central mine, our units control everything practically to the northwestern outskirts of the city. The enemy was also driven out of the waste heap of mine No. 10 (Террикон Шахты* No. 10). In the north, the fighting has reached the waste heaps of mines No. 12 and Fomikha (these are where the red arrows north of Террикон Шахты* No. 10 are pointing, the names are not visible on the map). Here, the enemy holds only them and, relying on positions on these waste heaps, a small part of the residential area.

Also, the Toretskaya mine (Шахта Торецкая, just west of Krymsko, and just east of Fomikha) is still in the enemy's hands, but active military operations are already taking place close to its territory. Attacks are being carried out in the direction of the village of Dachnoe. So far, there are not many of them, but their number is gradually increasing.

Part 2: Attacks on Uspenovka have begun

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ЛБС 12.9.2024=Line of Combat Contact September 12th, 2024. ЛБС 01.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 1st, 2024. ЛБС 01.12.2024=Line of Combat Contact December 1st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Зона продвижения после предыдущей сводки=The zone of advancement since the previous summary.

In the east of the Pokrovsky section, attacks continue in the direction of Baranovka. They come both from the side of Vozdvizhenka, which is completely under Russian control along with all the farms, and along the ravine from the southeast. Attacks are also being launched from the Vozdvizhenka area in the direction of the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka road. During successful operations, our forces have consolidated their positions on the territory of an enterprise located near the Timofeevka-Highway N32 road northeast of Elizavetovka. Thus, our forces have strengthened their positions for the subsequent physical cutting of this road.

In the settlement of Zelenoye we advanced both from the east and entered it from the west of the railway, forcing the enemy to withdraw its units from the pocket south of the settlement of Zelenoye. All forest belts are under the control of the Russian army there, and the pocket that existed there earlier is completely closed. Pressure on the settlement from three sides allowed us to establish our control there. Russian forces are now carrying out a final clean-up.

The Russian Defense Ministry announced the liberation of the village of Peschanoe. Our forces have already reached the north of it and approached Zverevo (Zvirove), on the outskirts of which they are gaining a foothold.

Earlier, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of the village of Shevchenko by the Center group of troops. Carrying out assault operations from the areas of the settlements of Volkovo and Solenoye, Russian units cleared enemy positions in the quarry territory located between Solenoye and Udachny. As a result of the further offensive, the control zone was expanded to the north, and our troops reached the T-0406 highway in the area from Kotlino to Udachny.

In Novovasilyevka, the enemy was driven out of the farms. The northern outskirts of the settlement are being cleared. Attacks on Uspenovka have already begun.

The enemy was also driven out of Novolizavetovka. Attacks are underway on Nadezhdenka (Nadiivka) with artillery support. The settlement of Yasenovoye has also been liberated from the enemy. Stabilization measures (cleansing) are being carried out there.

Our units have advanced in the area between Ukrainka and Slavyanka. In Slavyanka itself, Russian fighters are clearing the western outskirts of the settlement. The line of combat between Slavyanka and Petropavlovka has been flattened. The latter is completely under the control of our fighters.

The Shevchenko settlement was taken under control. In its area, our armed forces cleared one of the largest strongholds, as a result of which our troops
reached Andreevka and began fighting for its eastern outskirts. At the same time, pressure has increased from the Zelenovka region onto Konstantinople (Kostyantynopil), located near Andreevka.

South of the road from Kurakhovo, assault operations are underway against enemy positions located in the forest belt running east of Dachnoe.
Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the liberation of the settlement of Yantarnoye. Its transfer under our control now allows us to reach the rear of enemy units in the Dachnoe area, and also subsequently increase pressure on the settlement of Ulakly, stretching the enemy forces.

Image
ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 30.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 30th, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary.

In the Velikaya Novosyolka (Velyka Novosilka) direction, in the area of ​​Novy Komar, Russian units attempted to force the Mokrye Yaly, taking new positions on the eastern bank and improving their position. This also makes it possible to more closely control the supply routes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Velyka Novosyolka.

It is reported that the Russian army has taken the settlement of Neskuchnoe. Attacks are underway on Vremevka both from the southeast and along the road. Northeast of Rivnepol, our forces took a number of strong points in forest belts and flattened the line of combat clashes there. There is an increasingly dense coverage (one can already call it encirclement) of Velikaya Novosyolka.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... anuary-7b5

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Russia’s Difficult Ukraine End Game Choices and the Issue of “Imposing Terms”
Posted on January 13, 2025 by Yves Smith

We warned from the outset that Russia might well win the war in Ukraine and lose the peace. In fact, the odds are rising that there will be no peace, particularly of the sort that Vladimir Putin has said he wants, which is a durable resolution of conflict, and not yet another comparatively short-term cessation of hostilities in which Russia’s opponents take a breather and then re-start hostilities, even if in a less intense way than full-on fighting.

We’ll unpack why this looks to be the case in short order. But if that prognosis proves to correct, the question then becomes what solution, particularly in terms of territorial disposition, is least bad for Russia in security terms. We concur with Moscow-based analyst Mark Sleboda (who has reluctantly come around to this view, as he claims more and more Russians have), that as painful as an occupation of Russia-hating Western Ukraine would be, leaving it as a Banderite territory on Russia’s borders, to be funded and armed by NATO, would be worse. Note that Sleboda did not consider our preferred outcome, turning these strongly irredentist areas into de-electrified zones. That would greatly thin out population levels, reducing the cost of occupation.

We’ll turn finally to an issue of what it might mean for Russia to “impose terms” which is a formula some commentators (including yours truly) have used without considering what that might mean in practice.

Why the Trump “Negotiations” With Ukraine Will Go Nowhere

The short version, as we have said before, is that there is no overlap in bargaining positions. That means no deal. Indeed, based on what Putin and key officials have consistenly been saying, it’s very unlikely that “talks” will amount to more than preliminary feelers, even with a Trump-Putin face-to-face.1

Even with rumors via (per Alexander Mercouris, as of then only) Dima at Military Summary’s show, that Trump might try to engage Putin on a broad set of security interests, there’s not enough there there to budge Putin with respect to an unresolved threat on Russia’s border. Trump cannot provide what Putin has been seeking at least since 2007: a new European security architecture. In my humble opinion, this is the only sort of offer that might induce Putin to make concessions with respect to his current position on Ukraine, since it could solve the underlying conflict, and not the immediate bone of contention.

Putin’s position, as stated on June 14 and reiterated by Putin and various officials, Russia requires a firm commitment that Ukraine will never join NATO nor engage in NATO-boosting shenanigans like participating in NATO war games and will pull all forces out of the four oblasts that Russia regards as Russian territory. That means ceding territory not held by Russia.

Russia also insists that Ukraine de-militarize; Putin has suggested returning to the haggling over weapons levels that had begun in the spring 2022 Istanbul talks, and “denazifying,” which means among other things outlawing Banderite parties and symbols.

Asking Ukraine to give up areas Russia has not already taken is cheeky, but even more so is Russia’s demand for regime change in Ukraine.2

As we have said before, Trump cannot deliver anything of the kind. He cannot deliver NATO, which is a consensus-based body. He can’t even deliver a credible promise to keep Ukraine out of NATO via a US refusal to vote for its entry, since a later Administration would reverse that. EU leaders ex Orban and Fico were also implacably opposed to cooperating with Trump, and are even more so now that he’s taking an undue interest in Denmark’s Greenland. So they won’t cooperate out of general cussedness.

Similarly, as we have described, Trump cannot even deliver Ukraine. Even when the US was lavishing support on Ukraine, it often defied its paymaster, via flagrant corruption (such as failing to build defense lines around Kursk), terrorist acts, and continuing to pour men and weapons into trying to hold positions that the US urged Ukraine to relinquish. Now with Trump clearly inclined to cut Ukraine loose, what leverage does he have?

Let us also remember that conflicts regularly end without negotiations or meaningful agreements. As Lawrence Freedman pointed out in the New Statesman:

Those that demand Ukraine and its Western supporters work out what concessions will be offered to Russia to cut a deal to end the war, often claim that this will have to be done at some point because ‘wars always end with a negotiation.’ Despite its regular repetition, and however the Russo-Ukraine War concludes, this claim is simply not true. Not all wars end with negotiations. Some end with surrenders, as was the case with both Germany and Japan in 1945, or regime change, as with Italy in 1943, or cease-fires, which might require some negotiation but leave the underlying dispute unresolved, as with Korea in 1953. Even when there are negotiations intended to end a war they often fail…

Once a war has begun, compromises become much harder to identify let alone agree and confirm in treaty form. This will require intense bargaining over specific language in the full knowledge that any ambiguity will later be exploited.

Trust between the belligerents will be in even shorter supply than before….

Which is why remarkably few wars end with negotiations on the dispute which prompted the war.


The last sentence above is important for the Russia-Ukraine war. Again, Putin has been insisting since 2007 of a “new European security framework.” That would mean at a minimum no NATO forever for Ukraine and better yet, a deal limiting other threats, like no nuclear capable missiles within X minutes of flight time to the Russian border. Putin almost got what he wanted when Ukraine had agreed to no NATO membership in the draft of deal terms in the March-April 2022 Istanbul negotiations. But Boris Johnson kicked that table over on behalf of the US and NATO, making it explicit that the conflict was a proxy war and Ukraine was not free to make decisions, despite occasional pious noises otherwise. That further, greatly complicates any resolution. It isn’t just that Russia is faced with a much bigger foe, despite its military ineptitude. It is also faced with a coalition (as Alex Vershinin pointed out) that often squabbles openly about what to do (see regarding weapons commitments, for instance).

Freedman’s article is very much worth reading in full. After the in-depth discussion of the Falklands War, the final section explores the elements that are needed to come to a durable settlement of a conflict via negotiations. They are notably absent here.

Is Russia’s Least Bad Option to Go to the Polish Border?

Your humble blogger had been for some time of the view that if Russia’s paramount aim is security, it cannot leave a rump Ukraine in the West. That part of the country has been the home of the Banderites and many (most?) of its residents harbored strong anti-Russia sentiments.3 If that part of the country is not under Russian control, the resentful Europeans, with the help of perfidious Albion, will make it de facto part of NATO and will do everything they can to stoke hatred of Russia. And if Vance loses in 2028, you can expect the US to join in supplying weapons.

Now Russia has other considerations, like the economic and political cost of garrisoning part of Ukraine, or a son-of-end-of-WWII alternative of administering it for long enough to round up or drive out the Banderites, and re-indoctrinate the remaining population sufficiently so it might be given close to full self-determination down the road.

Keep in mind that Russia would have to manage not just domestic opinion but also that of its economic allies. They won’t like the spectacle of Russia gobbling up all of Ukraine. But if the US and Ukraine keep being hostile to Russia’s security needs, they might wind up making Russia’s case better than Putin ever could.

John Helmer for some time has been writing that the General Staff has been champing at the bit to prosecute the war more aggressively. Early in the electric war, Helmer reported that the General Staff was examining the idea of establishing a large de-electrified/demilitarized zone. An advantage is Russia could impose that unilaterally where it saw fit.

Some readers may think I am making too much of Mark Sleboda’s views, but of all the English-speaking commentators I have encountered, he has been far and away the most accurate in forecasting the pace of the war. That means far longer than just about anyone else thought possible. For instance, most milpundits have been talking about the Ukraine military collapsing any day now, yessiree.4 By contrast, Sleboda says it will take till the end of 2025 for Russia to clear the Donbass. Recall it still has to take two key cities, Slaviansk and Kramatorsk, on the last major defense line. Also consider that for Russia merely to secure the four oblasts that it now deems to be part of Russia, it will have to take two major cities that straddle the Dnieper: Zaporzhizhia (2024 population estimate 796,000) and Kherson (2024 population estimate 320,000). The only city in this size range that Russia has won is Mariupol, which had a population at the time of 420,000. That is not to say it won’t happen, but it is another piece of the minimum end-state for Russia that has not happened and does not look to be quick and easy.

How can Ukraine keep going when even the Pentagon said (a couple of months ago) that it could run out of men in as soon as 6 months, and other source then said 10 to 12 tops? Sleboda reported around ten that the MoD had estimated that for every year that Ukraine dropped the conscription age (now 25) it could raise another 100,000 men. Even if you think that’s high in light of flight across borders, Ukraine can probably raise one last army of at least 200,000. The Russian press has reported that Zelensky has relented to US pressure, but there has been no announcement so far of any conscription changes.

16 year old Ukrainians 'mass fleeing' in special buses to EU advertised on Facebook

Interviewee admits she's packed her son off to Germany already...
US is trying to force Zelensky to lower conscription age to teenagers


In case there are doubts that the Trump Administration would insist on lower the conscription age, a new Financial Times article puts paid to that idea. From Trump to urge Zelenskyy to lower Ukraine’s conscription age to 18:

[Incoming National Security Adviser Mike] Waltz said [on ABC] that its first steps would be to open dialogue with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin — to whom the US has not spoken directly since the war began — and to ask Kyiv to mobilise more men in order to stabilise Ukraine’s front lines ahead of negotiations….

He added: “This isn’t just about munitions, ammunition or writing more cheques. It’s about seeing the front lines stabilise so that we can enter into some type of deal.”


This looks like Trump is moving away from the idea of abandoning the conflict. Perhaps he hopes that an only moderately higher level of intensity from Ukraine will check Russia’s progress. But to anyone following the war, that’s a delusion. At best, perhaps the Trump Team is trying to make demands of Ukraine that Zelensky will reject, and that will justify a wind-down of support. But per above, the Russian press seems to think that Zelensky has, or is about to, capitulate to US demands.

Sleboda also pointed out in this talk that all of the weapons that the West had sent has not appeared on the battlefield, so Russian experts believe there are still some in reserve.5 Te Biden Administration and the Pentagon have graciously pointed out that there’s $3.8 billion in US weapons authorizations for Ukraine that have yet to be sent. So even if Ukraine is getting close to scraping the bottom of the barrel, it is not there yet.

Consider the section starting at 22:50:



Sleboda: When this war first started, I was entirely against the Russian occupation of West Ukraine, because they really do hate Russians there, by and large.

Thomas: Which is why they don’t want to take all of it.

Sleboda: It’s going to be weaponized against them. The entire population there will be just raised as a Western warrior caste for to restart the conflict, you know. in a few years, as soon as possible by the West, right, they’ll be trained.

I think at this point, the terrible costs of a occupation and the resulting guerrilla war in West Ukraine are actually less than the costs of a rump West Ukrainian Banderite statelet that will continue to be weaponized against Russia. And I think that may be part of the plan, the US plan, you know, at some level, not their initial plan, but Plan D or Plan E is oh, “You know, so the Russians are just going to keep going. We’re not going to give them some sort of deal that officiates this or admits that we lost here. We’ll make them fight for every inch. And let’s see them choke on it.”


Again, not to overdo on a key point, but John Helmer indicated that the Russian General Staff has been frustrated that Putin opposed a much speedier destruction of the Ukraine electrical grid as a way to end the war. Russia seems to have the means to prostrate Ukraine quickly if it wanted to. So why not?

Among the reasons:

Avoiding creating a massive humanitarian crisis, on the order of 10x Gaza, albeit without flattening buildings. Russia would become an international pariah. It would be seen as incumbent on Russia to provide relief, which it would be unable to do on this scale.

That scale of loss of services would also give the US and NATO the excuse of sending in large numbers of armed forces, to supply provisions and medical care and preserve public order. That is the last thing Russia wants.

By contrast, despite understandable Ukrainian loud complaints, the steady, systematic degrading of the Ukraine grid has become so regularized that it is almost background noise in the war coverage.

Keeping the good will of its economic allies. Most are deeply troubled by the idea of Russia taking terrain from a neighbor, even if they understand intellectually that this is now the only option left in terms of Russian security after the US and NATO scuppered the Istanbul negotiations. As the war has progressed, more and more Global South members have come around to Russia’s point of view, as reflected in the shift in votes on UN resolutions denouncing Russia’s action. A slow, incremental imposition of new realities, particularly if the West refuses to relent on the core demand of “no Ukraine in NATO, ever” will help keep them on board.


The Problem of Russia “Imposing Terms”

I must confess to occasionally resorting to the formula of Russia will wind up prosecuting the war until it has defeated the current regime in Ukraine and that it will then “impose terms”. But if you view Russia as following Clausewitz, this falls short of one of his definition of success, which is “getting the enemy to do our will”. This is a fuller formulation, from Antulio J. Echevarria II in Defense Analysis:

Clausewitz derived his proposition that “victory consists not only in the occupation of the battlefield, but in the destruction of the enemy’s physical and psychic forces” from the conditions of victory as he defined them for both the strategic and tactical levels of war. On the strategic level, Clausewitz wrote that victory in war required: 1) the complete or partial destruction of the enemy’s armed forces; 2) the occupation of his country; and 3) the breaking of his will to fight.

Even if Russia can do that with respect to Ukraine, its opponent is the US and NATO. Even if the US withdraws support from this adventure, most EU states are determined to carry on in some manner.

NATO’s will to fight seems very much intact, even if it is having trouble with budget implications. And as a recent long article in the Atlantic, by the Prince of Darkness of US neocons, Robert Kagan, shows, he’s still raring for continuing to mix things up with Russia, and no doubt has plenty of company.

To reduce this to practical terms, what happens if Ukraine’s military “collapses” as many milpundits foresee? Perhaps it will reach the level of a Syria-level of soldiers simply refusing to fight, which there amounted to a disintegration of the command structure. Or perhaps Russia really will have to conquer Kiev and seize the key command centers.5

A wee issue here will be the probability of the lack of a credible surrender instrument. Perhaps readers may think it’s silly to consider such a nicety. Isn’t possession nine-tenths of the law?

Even in private contracts, deficiencies or anomalies in the form of agreements can reflect problems with the deal itself. An overly-specified contract may point to a lack of trust between the parties and high expectations that they’ll wind up adjudicating it. Having a party sign that is lightweight (as in not clearly having enough resources) may indicate an intent to defraud.

In keeping if you look at the French surrender in 1940 and the end of World War II, considerable attention was paid to who and where these documents were signed. The German text, for instance, was drafted assuming political leaders would ink it; it was later revised to have the heads of the major armed services execute it, which is what happened. Even in the case of the German agreement, Russian additions to terms that Eisenhower agreed were important and delayed the signing.

In Syria, as far as I can tell, there was never an agreement with the Syrian government. Assad fled, importantly no one in his armed services was asked to execute a surrender document as a proxy for the Assad government. The Russians are very concerned with form, both for themselves and for appearances with their allies, so I doubt they’d accept roll this way.

The US and NATO will be keen to deny Russia a valid-looking surrender deal. They would create a government in exile. If the diminished Zelensky does not manage to arrange his exit, they have an arguably better fallback in the form of Ukraine’s former military chief, Valerii Zaluzhny, conveniently already stationed in London as an ambassador. He has the further advantage of being a diehard Banderite, having had not one but two statutes of Bandera in Zaluzhny’s Kiev office.

Even if the establishment of a government in exile winds up being a bit messy, it’s hard to see how Russia could get a credible representative from the Ukraine side to execute it. Zelensky would be unlikely to survive to do so (Banderites have already threatened repeatedly to kill him were he to try); the only way that might happen is if Russia would guarantee his safety, which means going permanently to Russia. That would be depicted as Zelensky signing under duress (which is narrowly accurate if not for the typical reasons). The same survival risk would apply to the current head of Ukraine’s armed forces, General Syrsky. So it seems not unlikely that someone who was not part of either the top military or political leadership would serve as the Ukraine representative, again contributing to the West’s ability to denounce any surrender or “imposition of terms”.

Again, the point here is not to fixate on a document that from the Russian side would signal an intent to halt their prosecution of the war and move to an occupation/administration phase, but to highlight that its likely deficiencies as an agreement would symbolize that the conflict has not reached a lasting resolution. Odds favor even if the war grind on into 2026 that the European will to carry on not yet having been broken. In a recent video, John Mearshimer provided a list of ways the West could continue a lower-level conflict with Russia, starting with Kaliningrad. Moreover, there will still be Ukraine backers in the US, feeding hopes that the US will resume support in the future even if Trump succeeded in closing the US money and weapons spigot.

Now admittedly, Trump is working on regime change, or at least regime redirection, across Europe, as Conor describes in detail today. But these efforts, like so many US interventions, have good odds of backfiring. So betting on them working out as intended is premature.

As Freedman summed up his New Statesman piece,

It is important to remember that contrary to the idea that wars must end with a negotiated solution in practice they rarely do.

____

1 It may be an artifact of translation, but Putin seems often (if not 100% consistently) made a distinction between being willing to hear what the various proxy war participants have to say, as opposed to start negotiations with them. Perhaps in a geopolitical analogue to the US mantra that we provide “access” to healthcare, which is not the same as providing healthcare, Putin saying he is willing to negotiate does not mean he has committed to negotiating. Just insert another word and the formulation becomes more obvious. Saying you are willing to get married does not mean you’ve committed to tying the knot.

2 Turnabout is fair play; Ukraine insisted on regime change in Russia via putting a provision in the Ukraine constitution that bars negotiations with Russia as long as Putin is President. Putin has pointed out that that has to go if talks with Ukraine are to come to fruition. Mind you, given the givens, it’s entirely logical, as Putin has, to question whether Zelensky can sign binding agreements. Russia’s reading of the Ukraine constitution is that Zelensky is no longer the legitimate head of the state, but the head of the Rada could execute treaties. Putin has pointed out that Ukraine could firm up Zelensky’s position by holding elections…assuming, of course that he were to win legitimately, a prospect that seems vanishingly unlikely given his low popularity ratings. And let us not forget niceties like Zelensky having banned opposition parties and shut down opposition media.

Note that Putin did not exhibit such sensitivities with respect to the Minsk Accords. The person that signed on behalf of Ukraine was not an official, but an ex-President who’d been designated as a representative (from what I can tell, without having had a post created or legislative approval).

3 An example: a Scottish contact was negotiating for IT contracting in Ukraine. He had a good command of Russian. Even though the meeting (near Kiev) was expected to be in Russian, he was told to keep his mouth shut: “You are blonde and blue-eyed, that’s enough. If they hear you have a Russian accent, the deal will be off.”

4 I have to admit I was too trusting of this point of view, particularly when it came from people with expertise like Colonel Macgregor. The fact that Russia will win does not mean it will pick up the pace all that much even as Ukraine gets weaker.

5 Or the level of appropriation for sale to arms merchants could have risen markedly.

6 Presumably Ukraine would destroy them, but that’s still an admission of defeat.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/01 ... terms.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Jan 15, 2025 4:05 pm

(Post for 1/15/2025 continued...)

Shevchenko and lithium
January 13, 15:02

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On Donbass lithium.
The head of the DPR Pushilin reported on the transfer of lithium deposits in Shevchenko under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

It is worth remembering that there are 3 Shevchenkos to the south of Krasnoarmeysk. We have already liberated 2 of them - to the south of the outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk and to the northwest of the outskirts of Kurakhovo.
The remaining Shevchenko is located near the liberated Novy Komar to the northwest of Velyka Novosyolka. It is still under enemy control. That is where the main part of the deposit is located. I have already published the map. I predict that the third Shevchenko will be occupied by March.

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In the future, the resources of the western Donbass will bring the Russian Federation a considerable income.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9609042.html

Vremyevskiy ledge disappears
January 14, 21:09

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Today, the last consequences of the summer counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2023 were eliminated in a rather routine manner. Neskuchnoye came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces. Thus, all settlements captured by the enemy on the Vremyevsk salient in the summer of 2023 returned to their native harbor. Soon, Velyka Novosyolka, which is one of the most important logistics hubs in the southwestern part of Donbass, will follow in the same direction. The roads to the west and north of the urban-type settlement are cut off, it is essentially semi-encircled. We are expecting good news in January.

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It is also worth noting the liberation of the important settlement of Terny northeast of Krasny Liman. The bridgehead across the river in the Ivanovka area is also expanding. Let's hope that fighting in the direction of Yampol and Krasny Liman will begin in the spring.

Online broadcast of military operations in Ukraine as usual here https://t.me/boris_rozhin (if you are interested, subscribe)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9611896.html

Attempt to buy positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the Gorovka area
January 15, 16:10

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An attempt to buy positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the Gorovka area.

Ukrainian military intelligence promised Russian servicemen $1 million for leaving their positions in Gorlovka in the DPR; counterintelligence thwarted these plans.

(Video at link.)

Representatives of the Ukrainian military intelligence promised Russian servicemen 1 million US dollars for leaving their positions in the city of Gorlovka (DPR). The aspirations of the GUR MOU were promptly identified by the military counterintelligence of the FSB of Russia and transferred to controlled conditions. 100,000 US dollars were received, paid by the Ukrainian military intelligence as an advance.

During the operational activities, areas of concentration of the Armed Forces of Ukraine units were revealed. In addition, units of the Russian Armed Forces carried out preventive missile and artillery strikes on the identified routes of movement of Ukrainian armed formations to Russian positions, the enemy suffered significant human and material losses.

The funds were used to purchase material and technical resources in the interests of units participating in the SVO.

Full video of the defeat of the GUR near Gorlovka (Video at link.)

During a joint special operation of the FSB and the Ministry of Defense, our security forces lured the enemy into a trap near Gorlovka. And at the same time expropriated 100 thousand dollars from him, using it for the needs of the SVO.

The footage shows positions that the enemy wanted to buy for a million dollars.

Work on enemy positions from which he was going to advance to the "sold" heights. Panic of the GUR special forces, throwing grenades at their own. Work with airdrops and artillery on assault groups.

Leaving, the hohols abandon their wounded and dead.

@sashakots

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9613292.html

"Ukraine will cease to exist in 2025"
January 14, 17:04

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"Ukraine will cease to exist in 2025" (c) - Nikolai Patrushev.

Let's remember this tweet. In January 2026, we will return to this post.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9611298.html

Google Translator

*****

Ukraine May ‘Cease to Exist’ in 2025, Putin Aide Says

Ukraine may cease to exist as a sovereign state in 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aide Nikolai Patrushev said in an interview with the pro-Kremlin tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda published Tuesday.

“It can’t be ruled out that Ukraine will cease to exist at all in the coming year,” Patrushev said, offering no elaboration or evidence.

He claimed Kyiv collapsed “long before” Russia’s 2022 invasion due to its alleged “violent enforcement of neo-Nazi ideology and ardent Russophobia.”

Patrushev’s statement was in response to a question about possible territorial concessions during peace talks under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who is set to take office next Monday.

Although Trump has pledged to quickly end the war in Ukraine, he has yet to present specific proposals for a ceasefire or peace agreement. The United States remains Ukraine’s largest military backer as Kyiv continues to repel Russia’s full-scale invasion.

news
Lavrov Welcomes Trump’s Signals on Ukraine War, Awaits Concrete Proposals
Read more
Trump’s favorable comments toward Moscow and his criticism of Ukraine and its Western allies have fueled concerns that his administration could pressure Kyiv to accept peace on terms favorable to Russia.

In the same interview, Patrushev made a similarly dire prediction about Moldova, an ex-Soviet republic that borders Ukraine and EU member Romania. He suggested Moldova’s pursuit of European Union membership against Russia’s objections could lead to its dissolution.

“I won’t rule out that Chisinau’s aggressive anti-Russian policy will result in Moldova either becoming part of another state or ceasing to exist entirely,” the Kremlin aide said.

Patrushev served as the head of Russia’s Security Council for 16 years before being replaced by former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in 2024.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/01/ ... ays-a87610

(Note that the Moscow Times is an opposition outlet banned in Russia.)

******

Those With "X" ...

... please, can you confirm or otherwise if this exists?

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I am just curious here, especially against the background of this:

Lavrov was asked what part the European Union and countries like Germany could play in future Ukraine peace talks. The diplomat responded that “with all due respect to the history of the German people,” he believes that they have “already made their contribution through Chancellor Merkel’s office and administration,” referring to the Minsk agreements which were supposed to be backed by Germany and France.
Europe WILL NOT be a part of Russia-US dialogue which DOES NOT exist as I write this. Moreover, Mr. Ryabkov's diagnosis, and I quote, "You cannot trust Americans and their word"(c).


(Video at link.)

Against the background of all this, Glenn's X-twit looks rather peculiar.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/01 ... ith-x.html

******

Three Arguments Tearing Apart Robert Kagan’s Claims About Trump, Ukraine, & Putin
Andrew Korybko
Jan 14, 2025

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The exact opposite of what Kagan posited is true: Russia can’t militarily control Ukraine indefinitely; a Russian-American brinksmanship scenario is terrifyingly realistic; and Putin is indeed interested in compromising but only under certain conditions.

Hugely influential neoconservative thinker Robert Kagan recently published a lengthy diatribe at The Atlantic fearmongering about Russia’s total and indefinite control of Ukraine, which he takes for granted if Trump doesn’t redouble aid to Ukraine. It’s premised on the presumptions that Russia can military control all of Ukraine indefinitely, there’s no realistic Russian-American brinksmanship scenario over that country, and Putin is unwilling to compromise. The following three arguments tear apart his claims:

----------

1. Russia Lacks The Means To Militarily Control Ukraine Indefinitely

Ukraine is a geographically enormous country that would require tremendous military resources for anyone to control indefinitely. On top of that, a large segment of its population now has military experience or at least basic arms training, weapons are now proliferating throughout its society with wild abandon, and the entire western part is known to be ultra-nationalist to the point of fascist. It would accordingly require much greater means than Russia has to militarily control Ukraine indefinitely.

Any attempt to do so, however, could expose Russia to an Afghan- and Iraqi-like insurgency that it’s ill-prepared to contain. Its forces would stand out in the ultra-nationalist western part of the country and therefore make easy targets for unconventional warfare (terrorism). These networks are deeply rooted and have existed for decades, lying dormant during most of the Soviet era but still never having been completely dismantled. Their fighters can also be easily supplied by neighboring NATO nations.

Ukraine could therefore turn into “Russia’s Vietnam” in much costlier ways than 1980s Afghanistan did both in terms of troops and treasure. Putin knows this and that’s why spring 2022’s draft peace treaty essentially sought to delegate Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification to a castrated government. Russia can’t carry out these tasks on its own unilaterally without exposing itself to the aforesaid risks. It requires a compliant Ukrainian government without which neither is likely to ever be achieved in full.

2. Brinksmanship Is Possible If NATO Conventionally Intervenes After A Russian Breakthrough

Unlike what Kagan implied throughout his article, a Russian-American brinksmanship scenario is terrifyingly realistic given the possibility that NATO could conventionally intervene in Ukraine at least up till the Dnieper after a Russian breakthrough. For as averse as Trump is to risking World War III over Ukraine, he also doesn’t want to go down in history as a loser (at least for however long it takes for Ukraine to potentially bleed Russia enough till it withdraws per the above) who “gave Ukraine to Putin”.

This concern is made all the more poignant by how regularly he condemned Biden over the years for his administration’s debacle in Afghanistan, which would look a lot less bad in comparison to Trump letting Putin “take all of Ukraine” like Kagan fearmongers is in the cards if he doesn’t redouble aid to it. If Russian boots were planted on Poland’s southeastern border, then the US also would struggle to disengage from Europe like Trump reportedly wants as part of his planned “Pivot (back) to Asia”.

It therefore can’t be ruled out that he’d threaten and possibly even authorize a conventional NATO intervention in Ukraine at least up till the Dnieper to “strategically salvage” some of the country if Russia achieves a military breakthrough instead of “surrendering” Ukraine in its entirety. In that case, Putin would be the one thrown into the dilemma of risking World War III over that ultra-nationalist western half of Ukraine, which he might decline doing and instead agree to a grand deal for ending the conflict.

3. Putin Is Indeed Interested In Compromising So Long As It’s A Practical Means To An End

Contrary to the Western elite’s perceptions, Putin is indeed interested in compromising, but this has to entail the fulfillment of at least most Russian goals in Ukraine. The top ones concern the restoration of its constitutionally neutral status, demilitarization, denazification, and recognition (even informal) of the new ground realities (i.e. four more former Ukrainian regions joining Russia). There are other objectives of importance to Russia too but these are the primary ones that Putin must absolutely achieve.

He's staked his reputation on at least their superficial fulfillment, which gives him some flexibility over the details that might ultimately be agreed to, especially with regard to denazification. Moreover, the new ground realities also cut both ways in the sense of Ukraine having integrated more closely than ever into NATO since the special operation began, not to mention Finland and Sweden joining NATO. He might therefore have to ultimately accept a less-than-ideal endgame in Ukraine and Europe more broadly.

Although Putin recently began to climb the escalation ladder, this wasn’t meant to signal that he plans to continue the conflict till Russian boots are planted on Poland’s southeastern border, but to “escalate to de-escalate” so as to get the US to concede to some of his main goals. He also knows that Trump doesn’t want to risk World War III over the historically Russian-controlled eastern half of Ukraine so the two dozen compromises suggested at the end of this analysis here might be more feasible than many think.

----------

As can be seen, the exact opposite of what Kagan posited is true: Russia can’t militarily control Ukraine indefinitely; a Russian-American brinksmanship scenario is terrifyingly realistic; and Putin is indeed interested in compromising but only under certain conditions. His falsehoods had to be fact-checked since he’s an influential figure whose words shape American elite discourse. His intended audience should therefore know that they’re being misled into supporting more aid to Ukraine on false premises.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/three-ar ... art-robert
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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