Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue May 27, 2025 11:37 am

Silence and threats

Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 05/27/2025

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“America's silence, the silence of others around the world, only emboldens Putin,” Volodymyr Zelensky declared on Sunday after the second night of massive drone and missile attacks by the Russian Federation. The attack left a dozen dead and caused widespread destruction, the result of Russian skill and a shortage of ammunition for air defense systems. Yesterday, Le Monde stated that Ukraine no longer has missiles for the SAMP-T systems supplied by France and Italy and attributed this shortage of ammunition for all Western-supplied anti-aircraft systems to the decline in Kiev's interceptions.

The silence that preemptively condemned Zelensky was short-lived, and messages demanding an unconditional truce from Russia quickly followed. Perhaps the most representative of these was that of General Kellogg, Trump's envoy for Ukraine, who in the afternoon (morning in the United States) wrote, specifying that "this is Kyiv," that "the indiscriminate killing of women and children in their homes at night is a clear violation of the 1977 Geneva Peace Protocols, designed to protect the innocent. These attacks are shameful. Ceasefire now." A message that was not considered explicit enough by some veteran journalists of this war. "Not a single mention of the words 'Russia' or 'Putin.' And not a word from Trump himself after Russia launched the largest drone and missile attack against Ukrainian cities since the start of the war," wrote Yaroslav Trofimov of The Wall Street Journal, demanding a clearer condemnation with an open mention of Russia or its president. Curiously, the image General Kellogg used to accompany his harsh message was not a civilian target or an indiscriminate attack on the civilian population, but the Antonov factory. Hours earlier, Ukraine had attacked a chemical factory with drones and, as Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin recalled, a microchip production company. Missiles provide more spectacular images, but drones are capable of great destruction, not only in Ukraine but also in Russia.

Contrary to the pride with which the media announced the record number of drones used by the Kyiv air force at the end of last week, there has been complete silence in recent hours regarding the Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. Due to the demands of the script, it is now necessary to exaggerate the damage and describe every attack as a deliberate war crime, using the total number of missiles and drones used to, without contextualizing, describe the bombings of recent days as the heaviest of the entire war. This was, for example, the line chosen by the BBC , which, without explaining, as even Ukraine admits, that some of these drones acted only as decoys, added up the number of drones and missiles used to give more importance to this weekend's attacks—a total of 89 missiles and around 500 drones in the bombings from Friday the 23rd to Monday the 26th, according to AMK Mapping—than to those in which, in a single day, Russia used more than 100 missiles.

“Last night's attacks demonstrate once again Russia's determination to cause further suffering and the annihilation of Ukraine. It is devastating to see children among the innocent victims, wounded and killed. My condolences go out to their families today. We need the strongest international pressure on Russia to stop this war,” Kaja Kallas wrote that morning, joining not only the new wave of hawks demanding radical escalation measures—not necessarily peace measures—but also Mijialo Podolyak's current use of the term annihilation for Russia's war in Ukraine. Ukraine has monopolized the major media headlines, which are much more comfortable denouncing Putin's war than doing the same with other conflicts where the aggressor is an ally or in distant wars whose populations don't matter enough to be the focus of Western reports. As journalist Olga Rodríguez reported, in a single attack carried out yesterday morning, one of many over the weekend, Israel killed 36 people, 18 of them minors, in the bombing of a school in Gaza where it knew a large number of displaced people were sheltering. Images of a girl escaping amid the flames of a burning building where her siblings, mother, and father had been seriously injured spread rapidly across social media, amid the silence of Western authorities, swift in their condemnation of Russia but much more sparing in the case of the Middle East, where Israel has killed more minors than the total civilian death toll recorded by the United Nations since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Taking advantage of the situation, the silence has turned into condemnations and announcements. “There are no longer range restrictions on weapons supplied to Ukraine, neither by the British, nor the French, nor by us, nor by the Americans. This means that Ukraine can now also defend itself by attacking military positions in Russia, for example,” Chancellor Merz stated yesterday, crossing one of his predecessor's two red lines. Despite his initial reluctance, stemming from his youthful pacifism and historical reasons that compelled him not to move toward a confrontation between Germany and Russia, Olaf Scholz eventually joined the military push, increased spending, and Germany became Kiev's second-largest military supplier. However, the Social Democratic chancellor always made it clear that he would not send missiles capable of reaching Moscow to Ukraine and that the European Union should not seize Russian public and private assets, as this would have serious side effects on the European financial system. In the few weeks he has been in office, Merz has signaled that Germany is willing to change its position on both counts.

A few days ago, the chancellor expressed his willingness to support the seizure if legal guarantees exist. His words yesterday, without confirming the shipment of Taurus missiles, suggest that this possibility is on the table. However, a diversionary maneuver cannot be ruled out either, which is more likely now that, as announced last week, the contents of the German arms supply to Ukraine will be classified, meaning the material sent will not be announced. In any case, the statements point to the escalation of threats—verbal and military—from Western countries to Russia now that Moscow, like kyiv, must decide how far it is willing to give in to reach an agreement or risk an even more brutal war in which European countries try to supply Ukraine with even more weapons than before.

That, at least, is the intention shown by the authorities of the European Union, a large part of its member states, and the United Kingdom, although their ability to follow through on their threats remains in doubt. The fact that the 48-hour ultimatum proposed by Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer, Friedrich Merz, and Donald Tusk came to nothing at the expense of US action indicates the level of autonomous action by European countries, whose main objective is to convince the United States that escalation is the obvious path in this phase of the war (and in all others as well).

The harshest condemnations have come from the United States in recent hours. Always quick with words and sanctions, Lindsey Graham has seized the moment to renew pressure for the passage of his sanctions law, which provides for 500% tariffs on any country that trades with Russia. The warmongering senator yesterday promised "crushing sanctions" and insisted that if countries like China and India continue to purchase Russian oil, "the United States will no longer be a mere spectator." Seeking ways to further involve the United States in the war against Russia has always been the modus operandi of the Republican senator, who in this crusade has the support of dozens of representatives and a co-sponsor of the legislation, Democrat Sidney Bluementhal.

The bombings of the last few hours have also surprised Donald Trump, who, with the weekend delay dedicated to his affairs, was much harsher than usual with the Russian Federation and, especially, with its president. After insisting on the good relationship they have maintained for a long time, the US president wondered "what happened to him" and stated that Vladimir Putin "has gone completely CRAZY." "He's killing a lot of people unnecessarily, and I don't just mean soldiers without any need," he stated, adding that he has always said that "Russia wants ALL of Ukraine and not just a part," which "may be true, but if it is, it will lead to the end of Russia." Asked if he had heard the Russian accusation that Vladimir Putin's helicopter had been caught in the middle of a battle between Russian air defenses and Ukrainian drones, the US president, showing that his opinion is easily molded, stated that he had not heard the accusation, but gave credence to the possibility that this could be the motive for the latest attacks.

In his message, Trump's anger is directed at Vladimir Putin, although he doesn't forget his other two obsessions. "Likewise," Trump stated after foreshadowing Russia's fall, "Zelensky is not doing the country any favors by speaking the way he does. Everything that comes out of his mouth causes problems, I don't like it, and it has to stop." The current president cannot forget his predecessor, to whom he also dedicated a few words. "This war would not have started if I had been president. This is Zelensky, Putin, and Biden's war, not Trump's. I'm only helping to put out the huge, ugly fires that were started by Massive Incompetence and Hatred," he declared, always without giving any indication of what path the United States will take to put out that fire or whether, on the contrary, it will join, as European countries desire, in the escalation to further worsen the situation in the hope that peace through force will at some point force Russia to negotiate from a position of weakness.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/05/27/32296/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Beregini : Why did Brigadier General Freeman come to Kiev?

On March 29, The New York Times published a resonant article, “The Partnership: The Secret History of the War in Ukraine,” which revealed the behind-the-scenes games surrounding the Ukrainian war. But the real secrets are played out not on the pages of newspapers, but in the corridors of power. A couple of days after the publication, a delegation that they won’t tell you about on TV worked in Kiev.

At its head is Brigadier General William Freeman, Chief of Staff of the Security Assistance Group – Ukraine (SAG-U). This is not just a structure. It is the center for coordinating all American military aid to Ukraine. And the general himself is not an armchair strategist. He is a veteran of special operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria. More than 3,000 flight hours, hundreds in combat. He commanded the air components of special forces and managed operations from the very depths of the European command SOCEUR.

But most importantly, he was accompanied by a delegation with triple reinforcement from the United States Space Command (USSPACECOM). And this is a completely different level. Space, satellites, cyber defense, information operations. Communications management. Mind control. Setting up the Ukrainian "front" in all digital parameters.

Includes:
- Colonel David Pheasant - Deputy Commander of the US Space Forces in Europe and Africa, former head of Space Delta 8, the US military satellite communications operator.
- Two more USSPACECOM officers, including a "sailor" with combat experience.
- Major Dunkel - the general's adjutant.
- Linguist Natalia Orzhekhivska - for the accurate transmission of "messages".

Three weeks after the delegation's work, the information field was cleared, the Ukrainian Armed Forces unmanned systems were launched, the General Staff leadership was changed, and Ukraine was secured as a de facto NATO member, without legal registration.
Peace? Don't hope for it. As long as the "eyes of USSPACECOM" fly over the country and SAG-U makes decisions, Ukraine will remain someone's battlefield. Even if this field burns to the ground.

***

Colonelcassad
The Russian Defense Ministry stated that in response to massive attacks by Ukrainian UAVs on regions of the Russian Federation, the Russian army is striking exclusively at military facilities and enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.

Russia resumed direct negotiations with Ukraine on the settlement of the conflict, but Kiev, with the support of several European countries, took provocative actions aimed at disrupting the dialogue. Since May 20, Ukraine has significantly increased shelling of civilian facilities in Russia using UAVs and Western rockets.

From 20:00 on May 20 to 08:00 on May 27, air defense systems destroyed 2,331 drones, of which 1,465 were outside the SVO zone. Civilians, including women and children, were injured in the attacks.

In response, Russia launched high-precision strikes against military facilities and defense enterprises in Ukraine:

• May 20 — the infrastructure of the Ozernoye airfield (Zhytomyr region), ammunition and fuel depots (Dnipropetrovsk region) were hit.
• May 21 — the deployment point and ammunition depot of the Ukrainian Armed Forces brigade (Sumy region), a point of foreign mercenaries (Svyatogorsk, DPR), a warehouse of the Kharkov group (Kharkiv region).
• May 22 — a defense industry enterprise (Pavlograd Chemical Plant), an aircraft repair shop, air defense radar stations (Krivoy Rog, Nikolaev region), a point of foreign mercenaries (Kharkiv region). An AN/MPQ-65 radar and Patriot air defense missile system launchers were also destroyed (Dnipropetrovsk region).
• May 23 — a group strike on the port of Odessa (about 100 containers with UAV components and ammunition were destroyed), the airfields of Kislichevata and Kanatovo, ammunition depots (Kharkiv region).
• May 24 — military-industrial complex enterprises, the SBU radio-technical reconnaissance and aviation center (Kiev region), deployment points of the Azov brigade and mercenaries, a Patriot air defense system position (Kiev region).
• May 25 — strikes on enterprises producing missiles, UAVs, explosives and electronics (Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Dnepropetrovsk, Kiev, Odessa and Kharkiv regions). Reconnaissance centers, UAV production workshops, a boat parking lot, and airfield facilities were destroyed.
• May 26 — infrastructure of the Starokonstantinov airfield, ammunition depots in the Kharkov region and the DPR, the control center of the S-300 air defense system and special forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Odessa region).

The Russian Federation announced the continuation of massive strikes exclusively on military targets of Ukraine in response to any terrorist attacks by the Kiev regime.

***

Forwarded from
Radio Sputnik
1:02
Boris Rozhin explained why the West lifted restrictions on strikes deep into Russia

This is more of a political threat, because supplying Ukraine with 100-150 Taurus missiles will not change the situation on the battlefield, the expert believes. In his opinion, in this way Europe "once again shows that it wants to come to the negotiating table."

In addition, Rozhin added, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will probably use Western long-range weapons for a PR campaign, in particular for a strike on the Crimean Bridge or other important objects on Russian territory.

***

Colonelcassad
Merz's allies in the SPD categorically deny plans to deliver Taurus missiles to Ukraine and any changes in the policy of strikes against Russia. In fact, they accuse their partners of lying.

The Taurus issue was one of the important elements of the coalition agreement, where the SPD insisted on maintaining this ban as one of the conditions of the coalition agreement with the CDU/CSU.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Mark Sleboda on the difficulties Russia would face if it decided to capture Odessa
May 26, 2025



https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/05/mar ... re-odessa/

(Not the downer you might think.)

Paul Goble: In 2024, Many Ukrainians who had Switched to Using Ukrainian have Shifted Back to Using Russian, according to Kyiv’s Language Ombudsman
May 25, 2025
Paul Goble, Website, Website, 5/2/25

Staunton, May 2 – The “powerful impulse” which led Ukrainians to stop using the Russian language has slowed and in some areas been reversed, according to a detailed, 341-page report by the Ukrainian government’s language ombudsman Taras Kremena. And in some regions and cities, the situation is becoming extremely unsatisfactory.

The report is available online at mova-ombudsman.gov.ua/storage/app/sites/14/Звіт 2023/zvit-2024-1.pdf and is summarized at https://ehorussia.com/new/node/32554). For a Moscow commentary thrilled by this development, see fondsk.ru/news/2025/05/04/khotyat-li-zhiteli-ukrainy-chtoby-ikh-deti-uchili-russkiy-yazyk.html.

According to the Ukrainian experts, this trend reflects the tendency of younger Ukrainians to follow the behavior of their parents rather than to be informed by government efforts to promote the use of Ukrainian. And they urge the government to do more to ensure that ever more Ukrainians will identify Ukrainian as their native language.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/05/pau ... ombudsman/

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Brief Frontline Report – May 26, 2025
Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
May 26, 2025

Sumy Direction

Russian MoD Report:

"Units of the 'North' Group have liberated the settlements of Vladimirovka and Belovody in Sumy Oblast as a result of active and decisive actions."

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Thus, the Russian Armed Forces have fully breached the first line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (in this area of Sumy Oblast), which ran along the line Veselovka - Zhuravka - Basovka, and have begun overcoming the second line: Vladimirovka - Yablonovka (formerly known as Krasnoznamennoye) - Yunakovka. In the rear of our troops remains the AFU defense area of the settlement Vodolagi. A large village (population 160), it was part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s original defensive line. Located in a relative lowland (190.0 m), its right and left slopes (208.0 m and 212.0 m, respectively) are now controlled by Russian Armed Forces units from the direction of Vladimirovka and Belovody. The Nazis entrenched there will not hold out for long.

Our units are advancing into the forefield of the enemy’s second defensive line, which is bisected by the Snagost River. The river flows through a lowland, with its western (Vrachino settlement) and eastern (Yablonovka settlement) banks at elevations of 119.0 m and 222.0 m, respectively. This terrain allows AFU units to maneuver along the riverbed and provides cover for enemy strongpoints on this defensive line from the dominant heights. After the liberation of Loknya, our forward units gained access to the ridge leading to Yablonovka. This area is traversed by the Urengoy–Uzhgorod gas pipeline.

Today’s liberated settlements—Belovody provides access to the high ground in the direction of Vrachino, while Vladimirovka allows for a flanking maneuver around the enemy’s left defensive line toward Alekseevka, where AFU blocking positions are located, securing the left flank of the second line and the center of their third defensive line.

P.S.: (Mikhail Popov) I’ve seen criticism in the comments—"...too much geography." I’d like to explain: "geography" is one of the core subjects that military commanders, even as cadets, study meticulously, often firsthand by conducting reconnaissance on foot and at personal risk. All the great Russian explorers and travelers (Przhevalsky, Semyonov-Tyan-Shansky, Khabarov, Kruzenshtern, and Lisyansky) were officers of the Russian Army. They made their discoveries not for hype or idle curiosity but to study the routes and terrain of POTENTIAL THEATERS OF WAR—in other words, they conducted strategic reconnaissance. Geography (topography) is one of the elements of the military science of victory.

Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka Directions

The Russian Armed Forces continue active operations at the junction of two sectors of the Pokrovsk direction (Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka).

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ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

Supporting our units in the Kalinovo-Romanovka area, Russian Forces have begun pressuring the enemy’s reserve concentration area (Rodinskoye - Vladimirovka - Popov Yar) and its covering blocking positions (Koptevo - Shevchenko 1). Reports indicate that forward assault groups are consolidating on the outskirts of Shevchenko 1 and Popov Yar.

After the liberation of Romanovka, the tightening of the cauldron’s neck (Zarya - Romanovka) has begun, as we anticipated. The enemy, recognizing the threat, has started retreating along the lowland of the Kalinovka River (with both sides’ heights under Russian control) toward Ignatovka - Zarya - Aleksandro-Kalinovo.

To facilitate the maneuver of Russian forces and resources, enemy strongpoints along the Sukhaya Balka - Kalinovo road have been cleared.

We await the collapse of the remaining AFU first-line defenses in this area and the liberation of Staraya Nikolayevka, Ignatovka, and Zarya.

To our fighters—good luck, success, and victory!

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ay-26-2025

******

A Week Long Drone Fight Which Russia Is Winning

Over the last seven days the Ukrainian military has launched over one thousand drones against targets in Russia. Most of these were shot down by Russian air defenses. There are no reports of any serious damage.

The biggest effect the week long drone attacks achieved was to shut down air traffic in Moscow for several hours.

After waiting a few days the Russian military responded in kind.

Over the last three days a record number of drones and missiles were launched against military installations and production facilities in Ukraine (archived):

Russia stepped up missile-and-drone assaults on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and other regions, killing at least 12 people overnight into Sunday after President Trump last week declined to impose further sanctions on Moscow over its refusal to halt its invasion.

Russia attacked with a total of 367 drones and missiles—one of the largest single-night raids of the war, according to the Ukrainian Air Force—in a second consecutive day of pounding strikes that sent civilians running for shelters in the middle of the night.


Over three days the Russian forces used some 1,000 heavy drones plus 58 cruise- and 31 ballistic-missiles to attack Ukraine.

The Russian attacks are overwhelming (archived) the western provided air defenses:

A YEAR AGO, for 30 drones to strike Ukraine in a single night was considered exceptional. Now Russia is saturating Ukraine’s air defences with hundreds of them. On May 25th the Kremlin pummelled the country, with what it called a “massive strike” against Ukrainian cities, featuring 298 drones, probably a record.
Russia is using more missiles, too: 69 were fired on the same night. As a result, Ukraine is once again stepping into the unknown. If the current ceasefire talks fail, which seems highly probable, air-defence units will need to ration their interceptors. More Russian missiles and drones will get through, to strike towns, cities and critical industry.
...
Last year the Kremlin was producing around 300 Shahed drones a month; the same number now rolls out in under three days. Ukrainian military intelligence says it has documents that suggest that Russia plans to increase its drone production to 500 a day, suggesting that attack swarms of 1,000 could become a reality.


The Russian forces are now using the sixth iteration of the Shahed drones. These now carry a 90 kilogram explosive load, fly much higher than previously and are less sensitive to electronic countermeasures (machine translation):

The tactics of using "Shahids" are also changing.
"Now their UAVs are attacking in swarms. Before the attack, ten or fifteen "Shaheds" cut several circles at a distance from the target, at a great distance and altitude of up to four thousand meters, actually out of the zone of destruction of our air defense. Then the "Shaheds" attack targets, diving from a high altitude. At the same time, they are clearly controlled remotely, which indicates that the UAVs are equipped with EW-protected communication complexes with command posts. Because of the new tactics, the effectiveness of eliminating enemy UAVs by means of our air defense systems is sharply reduced, " said officer N., who serves in the Air Defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.


To be more terrifying Shahid drones now have the wailing sound (1st vid) of Stuka sirens attached to them.

Number of Shahed drones launched against Ukraine

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While the drones keep the air defenses busy ballistic missiles and cruise missiles push through.

Ukraine has reportedly eight Patriot missile systems which cover the capital Kiev. (On Saturday at least one (2nd vid) was destroyed in a Russian attack.)

Ammunition for Patriot air defenses are running out:

Lockheed Martin, which builds the Patriot systems and their PAC-3s, is increasing its output to 650 missiles per year. But this is about 100 fewer than projected Russian production of ballistic missiles, with a Ukraine government source estimating the Kremlin has a 500-missile stockpile. It usually takes two PAC-3 interceptor missiles to intercept a Russian ballistic missile.

Supplies for other air defense systems have also run dry (archived):

The growing number of projectiles; their diversity (drones, cruise and ballistic missiles); and the complexity of their flight paths are overwhelming Ukraine's air defense capabilities. In 2024, Ukraine managed to mitigate damage by implementing a multi-layered system combining numerous light mobile units equipped with anti-aircraft guns, medium and long-range missile batteries, helicopters, fighter jets and a network of jammers spoofing satellite coordinates received by incoming projectiles. In 2024, the destruction or diversion rate for Shahed drones often exceeded 90%. That is no longer the case; today, the rate sometimes drops to 30%.
...
A source told Le Monde that Ukraine no longer has missiles for its two SAMP/T batteries and "has not received a single missile in a year and a half" for the short-range Crotale air defense system.
...
"We are running out of missiles," said Ihnat. "There are several Patriot divisions around Kyiv. But they cannot provide 100% protection against ballistic missiles. One battery only covers a radius of 25 kilometers. The Russians have found countermeasures: Iskander missiles perform evasive maneuvers in the final phase, avoiding the Patriot's trajectory calculations. In addition, the Iskander can release decoys capable of fooling Patriot missiles."
The relentless improvement of weapons and tactics has given rise to a breathless duel between sword and shield. The sword clearly has the upper hand today. Under attack, Ukraine has responded by ramping up its own aerial campaign against Russia, currently launching over 100 drones per night. The escalation appears inexorable.


It is an escalation which the Ukraine has no chance to win.

But there are still propagandists who claim to differ (archived):

Russia’s battlefield strength in Ukraine has started to wane and it could run into serious shortages of manpower and weaponry by next year, even as President Donald Trump retreats from pressure on Moscow to end the war, according to senior U.S. and European officials and military experts.

These reports border on being laughable (archived):

When Russia failed to deliver a knock-out blow in 2022 and to split Ukraine down the middle, Putin had a choice between a reduced war and a war on civilians across Ukraine. He went with the war against civilians—not to be seen as backtracking and to compel Ukrainians to surrender. This decision also backfired. The brutality of the Russian occupation coupled with countless assaults on civilians and civilian .

However, no numbers to support such statements are ever delivered.

As of end of April the UN reported some 13,000 killed civilians killed in Ukraine during more than three years of war.

During a night in which Russia fires more than 350 drones and ballistic missiles while Ukraine uses all air defenses it has against those, a loss of 12 civilians, as reported yesterday, is tragic but a very, very low rate.

In July 1943 the U.S. and Britain launched a week long air raid on the city I live in. Some 50,000 died and 200,000 were wounded; half of its houses burned down.

It shows how ridiculous claims like these are:

Image

The picture General Kellogg attached to demonstrated the claimed "indiscriminate killing of women and children at night" shows the burning Antonov aircraft manufacturing facility in Kiev which was hit Friday night. The facility had been used to produce fixed wing drones for the Ukrainian military.

At the front line Russian troops use first-person-view (FPV) drone directed through fiber wire and thus insensitive to electronic counter measures. Up to 40 kilometers behind the front line Russian drones, controlled through flying radio relay station, manage to harass Ukrainian logistics. Beyond that long range drones, like the Shaheds, engage industrial targets in swarm attacks.

There are also more and more specialized drones to drop bombs or mines. Others, flying high, are used for reconnaissance and to direct artillery. Still others are launched (vid) to directly attack incoming enemy drones.

A Ukrainian soldier describes the consequences (machine translation):

"Meat assaults, when the Russians threw their own into frontal attacks on our positions without the support of drones, although still sometimes occur, but less and less often. Now the assaults mostly start in a different way. First, the Russians launch reconnaissance drones. Then our positions are bombarded with KAB and tightly covered with artillery. Then the Russians immediately lift into the air shock FPV drones, which accurately crumble everything that is left to move after the shelling. They have more and more fiber-based attack drones, which are not hindered by any anti-drone means. And only after that they throw assault groups of 4-5 soldiers on motorcycles and ATVs, or just on foot, whose task is to get to our strongpoints and clear the positions. At the same time, if a year ago we had a clear advantage in UAVs, now we have at least parity, and in some areas the Russian Federation has a very significant advantage. Especially worryingly, the range of strikes is increasing. Drones are already hitting for several tens of kilometers, destroying our logistics in entire directions, " says UAV platoon sergeant K.

Over the last weeks Russia has introduced several drone innovations. It has increased their production to never before seen levels. It is unlikely to stop here.

Anyone who thinks of countering it should consider where Russian drone capabilities will be next year and beyond.

Posted by b on May 26, 2025 at 13:55 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/05/a ... .html#more

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Real Ukrainian Cyborgs 2025
May 26, 23:02

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Real Ukrainian cyborgs 2025. Ready to hold the new terminal of Donetsk airport. Although wait, the new terminal is gone, but there are more and more cyborgs.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9862312.html

There are no restrictions
May 26, 17:02

Image

For those who relaxed under the talk of "dealing"

"There are no longer any restrictions on the range of weapons that were delivered to Ukraine - neither by the British, nor by the French, nor by us. There are none by the Americans either" (c) Merz

Anything that lies below the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons can and will be used in Ukraine.
It is worth considering lifting any restrictions on strikes on Ukrainian territory that we have imposed on ourselves.

If anything, the average percentage of shot down Western cruise missiles is slightly more than 70%.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9861414.html

Google Translator

*****

Zelensky’s Illegitimacy Might Still Not Preclude Him From Signing Any Peace Documents
Andrew Korybko
May 26, 2025

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The fact that Peskov confirmed that Putin could hypothetically meet with Zelensky under certain conditions is proof of the Russian leader’s pragmatic desire to end the conflict if the right terms are reached instead of continuing it as an explicitly declared regime change campaign.

Zelensky’s term expired over a year ago, after which Putin declared that the Rada and its Speaker are the only legitimate powers in Ukraine per his reading of its constitution. The issue was then thrown onto the backburner until recently. The resumption of bilateral Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul led to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov telling reporters that a meeting between Putin and Zelensky “is possible but only as a result of the work of the delegations of both sides and reaching specific agreements.”

He cautioned that “a key issue for Moscow remains the question of who Ukraine would authorize to sign any potential agreements reached by the negotiators” due to Zelensky’s illegitimacy. A few days later, Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Legal Department Maxim Musikhin said that “It is of major importance who signs [documents] because their current ‘leader’ lost domestic, let alone external, legitimacy long ago. Hence, there could be problems with any agreement signed by such a person.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov soon thereafter chimed in as well, saying that “if those whose legitimacy, to put it mildly, does not convince anyone anymore, put their signatures, then their successors may challenge the agreement reached.” He then added that despite Putin deeming Zelensky to be illegitimate, “he emphasized at the same time that we still do not refuse to communicate with him and with his administration in order to agree on the principles of a settlement that suit everyone.”

Pushkov, Musikhin, and Lavrov are right, and the ideal scenario would be for truly free and fair elections to be held in Ukraine prior to the signing of any peace documents with Russia, but Zelensky’s illegitimacy might still not preclude him from signing them if the terms are agreed to without that happening. The issue of legitimacy is important but it’s not what observers might think. What matters most is that both parties, regardless of one side’s illegitimacy, continue to have reasons to abide by whatever is signed.

As informed by the UN’s eight-decade-long experience, international law is meaningless without credible enforcement mechanisms and the political will to use them, including unilaterally if there’s a politicized deadlock at the Security Council. International law shapes public opinion, but ultimately, powerful states can create facts on the ground that then become the new reality around which conflicts are politically settled. This might essentially become the case with the Ukrainian Conflict as will now be explained.

Whether Zelensky, the Rada Speaker, or some new Ukrainian President signs peace documents with Russia, they won’t be worth the paper that they’re written on if Kiev comes to feel after some time that it doesn’t have a reason to abide by these agreements just like it came to feel about the Minsk Accords. It’s here where the Russian and American roles come into play, the first with regard to retaining a large-scale military force near the frontier and the second by limiting its military commitment to Kiev.

If Russian forces remain within distance of carrying out various punitive actions in response to Ukrainian violations while the US makes it clear that it won’t let Ukraine manipulate it into a conflict with Russia, then a future peace deal might hold (unless a new US administration flip-flops). Even if a Ukrainian figure deemed legitimate to Russia were to sign these agreements, they or their successor could still violate them on any pretext if they didn’t have the aforesaid reasons to continue abiding by them.

Likewise, if Zelensky capitulated to some of the main concessions that Russia is demanding but insisted that he himself must sign the peace documents, then it can’t be ruled out that Putin the pragmatist might agree instead of continuing the conflict as an explicitly declared regime change campaign. The fact that Peskov confirmed that Putin could hypothetically meet with Zelensky under certain conditions is proof of the Russian leader’s sincere desire to end the conflict if the right terms are reached.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/zelensky ... ight-still

If there is no regime change there will no de-Nazi-fication, but Little Andy keeps on hoping...
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed May 28, 2025 12:00 pm

Playing with fire
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 05/28/2025

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Just hours after statements in which he appeared to affirm that Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States were lifting all restrictions on the use of weapons in Ukraine, Chancellor Merz yesterday partially retracted the implications that had been suggested. The German leader's announcement must always have seemed strange, since the representative of one country cannot afford to unilaterally communicate the conditions of three other governments. Yesterday, Friedrich Merz clarified that these restrictions had been lifted months ago, from which it can be deduced that the German Chancellor was referring to the permission granted by Joe Biden for the use of US missiles against targets in the territory of the Russian Federation within its internationally recognized borders. This permission was in addition to the permission for the use of British and French Storm Shadow or SCALP missiles, respectively, for which Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron had been pleading with the then US President for weeks. The step taken at the end of 2024 was known and has been used, as Ukraine has fired this Western material at Russian oblasts bordering Ukraine.

With a small number of Western missiles in its arsenal, kyiv failed to achieve significant results—a predictable outcome, given that undermining the war effort of a country as vast and militarily decentralized as Russia requires a number of missiles, which Ukraine lacked—and returned to its original tactic: the massive use of drones, which are harder for air defenses to detect and arguably more cost-effective and effective. Recently, it has been drones, not the missile threat, that have led to the intensification of the air war. However, Merz's remarks provoked a swift reaction from Russia, which assumed that Merz's announcement was actually confirmation that Germany would finally supply the desired Taurus missiles, capable of reaching Moscow and whose delivery would involve the participation of German soldiers in their use. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the move a significant escalation, sparking speculation about whether Germany had already moved the missiles to Ukraine and whether the US reconnaissance of the Black Sea last weekend was in preparation for an attack on the most likely target, the Kerch Bridge.

Nothing indicates, for the moment, that the missiles have been delivered, especially since the speedy move would imply that it was Chancellor Scholz, not Merz, who approved it—something unlikely given that such deliveries had been the main red line of the former German prime minister. In any case, Merz's words have fulfilled part of their purpose: to cause nervousness in Russia at the possibility of having to confront a new weapon. It is presumable that the same objective—to cause tension—was the reason behind the German chancellor's remarks yesterday, in which he insisted that "wars usually end due to the economic or military exhaustion of one or both sides," so, according to Merz, "we must prepare for a longer war." The scenario of a continuation of the war, which European countries favor given Ukraine's obvious reluctance to negotiate with Russia from a position of weakness, would imply, judging by the statements and demands of European countries, a new escalation, since, under current conditions, prolonging the status quo benefits the state with the greatest resources, in this case, the Russian Federation.

Faced with the possibility of either Russia or the United States, the only two countries with autonomy, abandoning diplomatic channels, Ukraine needs a more favorable context to continue fighting with minimal guarantees. Donald Trump's anger, wondering what has happened to Vladimir Putin to make him go "completely crazy," has shattered the optimism of the most radical representatives of Ukraine's warmongering camp, who are appealing directly to the US president for a package that incorporates the two necessary elements: sanctions against Russia and a sharp increase in kyiv's military supplies. Having failed all other arguments, officials like Mikhail Podolyak have opted to appeal directly to the US president's ego. "It is clear that Putin has chosen to cynically attack President Trump's personal reputation, counting on his willingness to engage in dialogue 'with a Russian,'" he wrote yesterday, challenging the US leader, insisting that the latest Russian bombings "are blatantly demonstrative." That line was taken last weekend by Volodymyr Zelensky, who reaffirmed that the Russian bombings were "political" and lacked "military objectives." This analysis would only be credible if one ignored the fact that the Russian attacks were in retaliation for the sharp increase in the use of drones, not always against military targets, in the Russian Federation, and that the Russian targets were primarily industries linked to military production.

“The Kremlin is fueling the war, testing the White House's resolve to keep its words. The US president still has a choice. The first: back up his words about Putin's 'madness' with concrete actions. Impose new sanctions, push through a full trade embargo against Russia, approve more arms deliveries, and strengthen Ukraine's air defenses. The second: surrender, admit the problem is too complex, and withdraw from the negotiation process to end the war. The Kremlin is confident this is exactly what will happen,” Podolyak continued in his message, in which he gave the US president the option of being a strong leader or surrendering by showing his weakness. Although childish, this argument to convince Trump that continuing a diplomatic process in which one side has no intention of negotiating in good faith—assuming Ukraine will do so, questionable given the obstacles officials like Podolyak insist on putting in place—is currently the basis on which official European discourse is based.

The current pressure on the United States to seek a more comfortable position for European countries and Ukraine, more concerned about the possibility of an agreement that is not favorable to them than about the continuation of a war that is destroying Ukraine, occurs at a time of uncertainty in which neither continental officials nor the Western press truly understand the White House's position or whether there is even an official policy on the issue of diplomacy. Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal stated that Washington is considering introducing sanctions against Russia and is even considering abandoning dialogue with it completely. Yesterday's words, in which he warned Vladimir Putin that he is "playing with fire," are further evidence of Donald Trump's weariness with a process he never believed would be complicated and which he still doesn't realize has only just begun and has no guarantees of success.

But for those who assume another U-turn by the White House and have already forgotten that it was only eight days since the US president's euphoria at the start of talks that went beyond a ceasefire and sought a resolution to the conflict, or four days since he first questioned whether the ceasefire was the first step toward "something big," Keith Kellogg's latest statements are a sign of continuity. In his latest appearance on the Fox News morning show, known as Donald Trump's favorite, General Kellogg called the US president "the only person" capable of negotiating an agreement between Russia and Ukraine and emphasized the enormous effort he is making and his deep frustration with the "indiscriminate" attacks of recent days. Repeating a long-standing theme, one that Trump has done more than anyone else in these 120 days to bring about an end to the conflict, and after calling the Russian bombings a violation of the Geneva Convention, Trump's envoy for Ukraine focused on the status of the US shuttle diplomacy. According to Kellogg, the United States already knows, or believes it knows, Ukraine's position, its demands, what it hopes to achieve through diplomacy, and how far it is willing to compromise.

This is the 22-point plan that General Kellogg considers "a good plan" despite including aspects that openly contradict the roadmap proposed by the United States. This European plan would imply the military presence of NATO countries in Ukraine, would grant Ukraine the territorial demands it proposes from the outset (especially the return of the Energodar nuclear power plant), leaving the status of the remaining territories completely up in the air, something excessively similar to the Minsk agreements, a situation that is a clear red line for Russia. Regarding sanctions, the plan would imply Moscow's acceptance that US sanctions will only be lifted, and gradually under Kyiv's supervision. The 22-point proposal that Kellogg is trying to impose would mean Russia accepting from the outset a situation of long-term economic and political conflict with Ukraine and its European allies, something it can hardly accept without facing a harsh diplomatic defeat. This diplomatic pressure is behind Russia's attempt to demonstrate its strength on the battlefield, the main tool of pressure currently in Moscow's hands.

In his remarks, General Kellogg emphasized the memorandum Russia has promised, which he describes as a "term sheet," that is, the negotiating position, not the maximum position, of the Russian Federation. Once received, the US representative affirmed that both documents will be "mixed" and a decision will be made on how best to combine them. This, not statements and mutual recriminations, is the starting point for diplomacy. This is Kellogg's understanding, admitting that neither side is happy with their opponent's proposals and emphasizing the frustration this entails, but believing that Trump "must continue with it." "There is no way this war is going to end by force," Kellogg insisted, adding that "it will be through negotiations," so continuing it is the only option. Whether this negotiation takes place in Geneva, as Kellogg suggested, with the three presidents present, or whether it is precipitated by sanctions and threats rather than incentives, will depend on the actions and words of Russia and Ukraine, but also on the mood of Donald Trump, whose impatience and frustration are a factor to be taken into account.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/05/28/jugando-con-fuego/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

The main points of Dmitry Peskov's statements:

- Work on the Russian Federation's memorandum on Ukraine is in its final stages;

- Peskov called for a careful approach to "revelations" in the media on the Ukrainian settlement, because there are many fakes or outright lies;

- Russia will not "exchange through the media" the content of the documents being prepared on the settlement in Ukraine;

- A document is being prepared to discuss the terms of the ceasefire with Ukraine, but for now the SVO continues;

- The ratio of military and civilians transferred during the prisoner exchange in the "1,000 to 1,000" format speaks for itself;

- No decisions have been made on the venue for the next round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the place must be convenient for both sides;

- Zelensky's words about preparing an agreement with the EU on long-range weapons confirm the validity of Russia's aspirations to eliminate the root causes of the conflict;

- The United States is making considerable efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, Russia is grateful to them for their mediation.

***

Colonelcassad
The main points from the statements of the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov:

- Russia insisted on the abolition of discriminatory laws at the meeting in Istanbul. Moscow will continue to do so at the next round;

- A new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will be announced in the near future;

- Negotiations are better than conflict, but the root causes must first be eliminated;

- The West's emphasis on the principle of territorial integrity in the issue of Ukraine is unacceptable while completely ignoring the right of a nation to self-determination;

- Russia's demands for a non-nuclear and neutral status for Ukraine must be met in any form of conflict resolution;

- The Kiev regime does not represent the population of Crimea and southeastern Ukraine;

- The strengthening of NATO contingents along the border with Russia is alarming

***

Colonelcassad
The Russian Defense Ministry reported that since yesterday evening, our air defense has shot down 296 enemy drones, which the enemy sent in portions in the main direction of Moscow.

"During the past night from 21:00 Moscow time on May 27 to 07:00 on May 28, air defense alert systems destroyed and intercepted 296 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles of the aircraft type over the territories of the Moscow region, Bryansk, Belgorod, Vladimir, Voronezh, Ivanovo, Kaluga, Kursk, Oryol, Ryazan, Smolensk, Tver, Tula regions."

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – May 27, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
May 27, 2025

Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka Direction

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ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

Building on their success along the demarcation line of the Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka sectors in the Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have liberated the settlement of Staraya Nikolaevka. The nearby settlement of Gnatovka is under the control of our units, and clearing operations are underway.

The frontline in this sector is now almost straight, running through Leonidovka - Romanovka - Alexandropol.

We can anticipate the following actions by the Russian Armed Forces:
While pinning down the enemy’s main forces along the Popov Yar - Shevchenko 1 line, the primary axis of advance will remain Romanovka - Alexandro-Kalinovo (Alexandro-Kalinovo is one settlement, btw*). The objective is to exploit the retreating enemy’s momentum, advancing onto the left flank of their third defensive line while our right flank moves through the Sukhaya Balka to the rear of the Shcherbinovka defensive area. It is time to untangle the "Dzerzhinsky (Toretsk) Knot."

The secondary (supporting) axis will be Novoolenovka - Rusin Yar, with a flanking strike toward Yablonovka to pressure the right flank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' third defensive line (Alexandro-Kalinovo - Yablonovka).

If the enemy begins active countermeasures by deploying reserves from the Rodinskoye - Vladimirovka - Popov Yar area, our pressure will likely intensify in the Promin, Mirolyubovka, and Malinovka sectors.

Zaporozhye Direction

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ЛБС 03.3.2025=Line of Combat Contact March 3rd, 2025. Активность=Activity.

The Zaporozhye direction is heating up.

Russian Armed Forces units have advanced in the Nesteryanka, Kopani, Rabotino, and Belogorye sectors. The general objective there is the city of Orekhovo. The immediate task is to secure the areas covering the city: Malaya Tokmachka, Novodanilovka, and Novoandreevka.

Based on observations of the Russian Armed Forces' actions, we can assume there will be no direct assault on the city. Instead, an encirclement is likely, with flank clearing operations and drawing Ukrainian reserves away from other sectors (possible diversionary maneuvers may occur on the right flank).

A gradual tightening of the "noose" around the city will follow, cutting off supply routes. All major cities must "fall from the branch like ripe fruit" on their own. Such is the modern operational art of the Russian General Staff.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ay-27-2025

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SITREP 5/26/25: Russia Unleashes Saved-Up Fury as Ukrainian Air Defense Woes Come to Light
Simplicius
May 26, 2025

Two days ago Russia unleashed another of the war’s most withering strikes on Ukraine, which was followed up the very next day by a secondary wave to finish off whatever was hit after an obligatory BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) period.

Being the largest series of strikes in some time, they revealed a heaping of new information about the state of things in Ukraine, particularly vis-a-vis Ukraine’s air defenses and upgrades to Russia’s own strike systems.

For instance spokesman for Ukraine’s airforce Yuri Ignat noted that Iskanders have been upgraded and now use a variety of countermeasures:(Video at link.)

First he says Iskanders now fire off radar decoys and execute terminal maneuvers that make them impervious to Patriot systems. We know Iskanders have always had these abilities, but they may not have been programmed to use them in the beginning of the war, perhaps because Ukraine initially lacked the ability to shoot them down anyway, until being pumped up with Western arms.

What’s interesting is, on the previous strikes a month or so ago, the Iskander was seen to be possibly dispensing one of these radar decoy countermeasures. This was the infamous strike where a Patriot can be seen going up and missing the Iskander missile: (Video at link.)

But if you look very closely at the top of the screen at exactly the 0:01 mark, you can see something ejecting from the back of the Iskander: (Video at link.)

Interestingly the object falls left in precisely the direction the Patriot is heading when it misses—perhaps it locked onto the decoy as designed.

In the strike two nights ago, we again saw Kh-101 missiles with their upgraded decoy-heat traps as well: (Video at link.)

A different Iskander landing on Chernigov during the strikes: (Video at link.)

In fact, Washington Post admitted Kiev was unable to shoot down a single Iskander in the attacks:

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They did manage to down a Kh-101 with what is claimed to be a MIM-23 Hawk: (Video at link.)

All in all, the scale of the attack was huge, with Western publications noting the massive uptick in Russian drone and missile production:

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https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/0 ... on-ukraine

The Economist writes:

A YEAR AGO, for 30 drones to strike Ukraine in a single night was considered exceptional. Now Russia is saturating Ukraine’s air defences with hundreds of them. On May 25th the Kremlin pummelled the country, with what it called a “massive strike” against its military-industrial sites, featuring 298 drones, probably a record.

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The Economist paints a grim picture, noting that only Kiev’s “dwindling stocks” of Patriots even ‘stand a chance’ at hitting Russia’s ballistic missiles, while Russian Geran drones have seen all kinds of upgrades including ‘machine learning’ that allows them to hit targets in Kiev effortlessly.

The article heroically claims, though, that Ukraine still manages to shoot down “95%” of the Geran drones—a laughable lie given video from yesterday’s strikes which shows a parade of twenty unanswered hits on and around the Antonov plant by the very same drones: (Video at link.)


Russian experts note that new Gerans are now acting more as EW ‘snoopers’ to feel out Ukrainian EW and AD zones for the real strike packages to then get mapped around those corridors. Kh-101s have also reportedly been upgraded with more sensitive optics that allow them to conform to the terrain better in navigating these ‘safe’ corridors toward their targets.

Economist notes that America virtually has the monopoly on anti-ballistic missile systems in the West, which Ukraine must rely on, despite the fact many of their systems are taken out of action by Russian strikes:

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Rubio had just stated that America has “no more Patriots” left to give, as its own supply is at this point critically low. (Video at link.)

Video emerged of the Patriot system stationed in Kiev likely being hit in the strikes as well, after sending out volley after desperate volley into the sky to no avail.

A new Le Monde article making the rounds further contradicts some of the Economist’s reporting:

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https://www.lemonde.fr/international/ar ... _3210.html

This is particularly the claim of ‘95%’ shoot down of Geran drones, where Le Monde corrects the record:

In 2024, the rate of destroyed or disoriented Shahed often exceeded 90%. This is no longer the case today, where the rate sometimes drops to 30%.

The publication quotes a deputy commander of a Ukrainian mobile AD unit:

]“The trend is bad,” admits Yakout, deputy commander of a DAU unit comprising 23 mobile groups and protecting the skies over the Odessa region. This pudgy man with Asian features, aged 44, explains that Shahed-type drones have been perfected since they first appeared in autumn 2022. “Since January, their machines have been flying at altitudes of between 2,000 and 3,000 meters, instead of 200 meters. We can no longer hit them with our guns. When they dive-attack at over 500 km/hour, it's very difficult to hit them,” explains the officer.

But the biggest revelation of the Le Monde piece is that Ukraine has completely run out of missile stocks for its SAMP/T batteries, and virtually so for its Crotales:

But to meet the growing challenge, “we need a lot more long-range systems, such as the [American] Patriot, the [German] Iris-T and the [Franco-Italian] SAMP/T. We don't have anything today. We have nothing today to protect southern Ukraine from ballistic missiles”, confides the officer. According to a Le Monde source, Ukraine no longer has any missiles for its two SAMP/T batteries, and it has “not received a single missile for a year and a half” for the Crotale short-range anti-aircraft system.

Increasingly the theme of discussions has turned toward Russia’s growing advantage in the drone field. For a long time Ukraine held the claimed advantage, but now a growing number of sources in both Ukraine and the West contend that Russia has finally broken through the parity and has taken the lead in everything from surveillance to FPV drones. The Times’ latest makes a shocking statement:

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https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-u ... -sqgw92l2v

Russia has taken the lead in the drone race, outproducing Kyiv in the manufacture and use of medium-range FPV drones and fibre optic variants that have changed the shape of the entire 1,200 km front line.

The article goes on to state Russian FPV strikes are now regularly destroying Ukraine’s ‘rear’ logistics at 20km+ behind the FLOT.

The article notes how the drone scourge has changed rotations:

Until late 2023, infantrymen of both sides on standard rotation deployment were usually carried to a position near the front in armoured personnel carriers, walking the last few hundred metres on foot.

Now, under drone-filled skies, infantrymen are dropped off by 4×4 pick-ups, and walk between five kilometres and eight kilometres at night, in meandering routes through trees to avoid detection, just to take up their positions at the front line, known as the “zero point”.

Once there, rather than be rotated out of the front a week or two later, as was common in early 2024, Ukrainian troops now spend months in foxholes, often devoid of almost any other human contact, resupplied with water, rations and ammunition by agricultural drones.


They say even media reporters on the Ukrainian side now refuse to go within 15km of the frontline because the drones are simply too pervasive and strike anything that moves.

Ukraine’s top drone expert concurs, explaining there’s no EW to cover the ‘rear’, since drones were not expected to go that deep:

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Ukrainian reserve officer Tatarigami also enlarged on this rising issue in a thread:

Over the past few months, Russians have focused on disrupting Ukrainian logistics, using a mix of drones, including fiber-optic. Once EW is neutralized or forced to withdraw by fiber-optic drones, it clears the way for drones like the Molniya, which can fly over 20 km. Thread:

2/ Cutting off supply lines has made vehicle transport nearly impossible. In some cases, individual soldiers must walk more than 10 km at night to deliver basic supplies: an unsustainable way for supporting any sizable unit, or even rotating troops.

3/ Despite growing logistical problems, Ukrainian command has made bad choices to launch Russian-modelled assaults. The attempt to capture positions while already struggling to hold current ones, with fewer troops and less equipment, lead to predictably poor outcome

4/ At the same time, Russia has sharply increased production of Geran drones (upgraded Shahed variants), with daily output likely exceeding 100 units. Our Satellite imagery analysis shows a clear rise in drone deployment - not from stockpiling, but from steady manufacturing.

5/ Russia’s position has improved thanks to successful efforts to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines across several frontline areas, including near Kostyantynopil and Pokrovsk. Still, their reliance on small-unit tactics allows for grinding advances but falls short of breakthroughs.

6/ Russian forces appear confident in their chances of making substantial gains in the summer of 2025. Meanwhile, despite clear fatigue, Ukrainian forces also remain firm and confident in their ability to hold the line and prevent Russia from achieving a strategic shift.

7/ Whether Russia sees major gains - or fails to advance - this summer and early fall could heavily influence its broader decision-making. A stalled offensive might force a reassessment of the war’s overall cost-benefit outlook.


Innovations come so fast it’s nearly hard to keep up, as the Ukrainian soldier in the article implies. Recall recently I showed Russians would park their fiber optics drones inside the ‘net tunnels’ now pullulating throughout the front, waiting for Ukrainian cars to drive by. Ukrainian drones now hunt these quiet ‘ambushers’: (Video at link.)

At the same time, one of the most common themes in recent frontline revelations discussed in detail in the last premium article is how much Russia has begun specifically targeting and hunting Ukrainian drone units. Ukrainians now complain their drone teams are being triangulated and taken out, with Russian units specializing in cleansing the LoC of hard-to-find Ukrainian drone teams.

Many new videos in the past few weeks have emerged showing this accelerating campaign. Another example: (Video at link.)

A strike by a helicopter-based Kh-39 LMUR missile on a discovered enemy UAV crew located in one of the houses.

Paid subscribers will recall recent rumors I’ve written on of a new class of completely autonomous Russian AI drones. Now Ukraine’s leading drone expert fills in more details on these developments:

I continue to study the use of Russian UAVs with AI.

I will say right away: representatives from all departments are already working on this problem. We are looking for a countermeasure and we will find it.

Yesterday, the enemy attacked the village of Velykyi Burluk with a swarm of seven UAVs. Apparently, the drones, flying by, noticed a cluster of cars near Novaya Poshta and a cluster of people in the market below. The AI ​​​​made the decision to attack the target, the UAVs stood in a circle and then dived down. Miraculously, everyone is alive and well. That is, for such UAVs, there is no difference who to attack.

The unique color markings on the wings allow the swarm to stay in a flock. They walk like birds one above the other to see the markings

P.S. One completely intact UAV attacked a toilet and drowned in this city toilet in the village of Velykyi Burluk. If anyone needs a trophy, you know where to find it. There were no willing people to get it.


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So, firstly he says these drone swarms are able to identify and track each other via different color-coded symbols on their wings, allowing them to network together in integrated fashion, choosing and coordinating targets to hit. He claims as of now they do not discriminate between military and civilian targets—who knows if that part is just an added pinch of provocation to churn some urgency or whether it’s true.

Either way, one thing is certain: Russia has taken the lead, for now at least, in the drone war.



Things continue going badly for Ukraine on the front, with Russian territorial captures again spiking today at what one source had as nearly ~50km2 taken.

Financial Times’ latest describes Ukrainian soldiers as weary and demoralized, with no hope on the horizon:

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https://archive.ph/pkdYI

Summary:

‼️‘Feeling of exhaustion and frustration’ spreading in Ukrainian Armed Forces over lack of prospects for ending war — Financial Times

▪️Morale is weakening among both experienced officers and newly mobilized soldiers.

▪️They feel no prospect of ending the fighting and "fear that their lives are being sacrificed in vain."

➖"We are exhausted," complains one of the Ukrainian Armed Forces commanders, whose unit is fighting near Pokrovsk.

▪️Trump's inaction after his statement about his intention to end the Ukrainian conflict in 24 hours has enraged the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

▪️At the same time, Ukrainian politicians say that the country must prepare for a long war.

➖"The mobilization campaign remains riddled with corruption and forced conscription, with men being grabbed off the streets and shoved into vans, and a program to recruit young people aged 18 to 24 has failed," the publication writes.

RVvoenkor


This excerpt interestingly echoes our recent descriptions of Russia’s harrying assault tactics:

Ukrainian troops on the eastern front said that Russian infantry are darting around on motorcycles, buggies and electric scooters. Said Ismahilov, a soldier who was once Ukraine’s senior Muslim cleric, compared them to a “swarm of locusts . . . not one great wave, but an endless stream.

(Much more at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... shes-saved

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Yes, Info-146%.

This is exactly what Russia planned after "signing peace deal".

Peace won't last: secret documents reveal Russia's war plans. The head of the Netherlands' military and intelligence service has forecasted that Russia might be ready to engage in another significant conflict shortly after concluding any possible peace deal with Ukraine.

Dutch intelligence sounds about the same way as Irish Tacos, and the only issue which remains is when (not "if") EU will drop the drab mask of "democracy" and will turn itself into the full blown totalitarian concentration camp. Fact is, in many respects modern Europe is reminiscent of 404, with a twist, of course--it still has some ancient ruins and covers itself with a holes-ridden shroud of sophistication. But the grim future for Europe is set now.

Consider these cretins from European Union for Security Studies.

Unpowering Russia: How the EU can counter and undermine the Kremlin

You cannot fix them. This is what fraudulent West's "edukaishn" produces, even among people who are supposed to have at least some relation with actual statistics and even military. Not this bunch, read their sinecure abusing BS backgrounds inside the report. Europe is brain dead.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to run out of missiles, with the latest wave (last night) comprising (apart from hundreds Geraniums) of 100+ of all kinds of 3M14 Kalibrs, X-101s, evidently some Kinzhals visited various 404 locations. Here is Ternopl' enjoying the fireworks. Sounds like X-101. Also, whenever you see those bursts of AD missiles--this is Patriot which tries to shoot at something hoping that its ersatz "multichannel" guidance through missile(s) may somehow increase its chances of survival--it cannot.

(video at link.)

Meanwhile, even 404 sources are showing a sort of hell for their troops in Volchansk.

(video at link.)


So, this is where we are and Russia's plans on 404 begin to look more definitive. So goes for the US plans, which, as history has it, I was preaching from the very start of SMO, and even earlier.

Buy American: How Europe must stock up on weapons for Ukraine

Yep, that was the Washington's plan from the get go. There is one, or rather three problems though--you all know it--US technology is:
a) expensive.
b) disastrously ineffective (a euphemism for being expensive obsolete junk).
c) US cannot produce quantities required for REAL war.

Ahh, desperate times--desperate fantasies.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/05 ... o-146.html

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Intellinews: Putin orders creation of buffer zone along Ukrainian border
May 26, 2025
Intellinews, 5/22/25

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a buffer zone to be set up along the border with Ukraine on May 22.

Following his visit to the Kursk region, which has been partially controlled by Ukrainian troops for months , Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the creation of a “buffer zone” that will run “along the border.” Putin said the decision had been made at a government meeting via video link.

He initially declined to say exactly where the zone would extend, how long it would be, or how deep into Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine it would extend. “Our armed forces are in the process of solving this task; enemy firing points are being actively suppressed; work is underway,” he said.

The Russian press framed the plan as a rehabilitation zone for Russian regions that had been damaged by escalating cross-border drone attacks. Putin ordered the rapid development of a comprehensive restoration programme for border regions affected by Ukrainian strikes, instructing officials to ensure sufficient financial and logistical support for reconstruction efforts.

Putin directed the Ministry of Economic Development, in coordination with the Presidential Administration, to lead the initiative targeting the Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk regions, all of which have faced repeated shelling and drone attacks since the escalation of cross-border hostilities.

“I task the Russian Ministry of Economic Development in cooperation with colleagues from the Presidential Administration to prepare at the earliest possible time the programme for comprehensive restoration of affected districts of Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk regions,” the president said, according to TASS.

Putin emphasised the importance of ensuring the programme is fully resourced. “The programme must be provided with required financial and material resources,” he noted, adding that additional machinery and personnel, including experts from other regions, would be mobilised to assist.

The three regions, which share borders with Ukraine, have reported increasing attacks in recent months, including strikes on civilian infrastructure. Local authorities have declared states of emergency in several districts and implemented evacuations in response to the growing threat.

While Moscow has accused Kyiv of targeting border areas to destabilise Russian territory, Ukrainian officials have largely refrained from confirming cross-border operations, maintaining a policy of strategic ambiguity regarding long-range strikes.

The Kremlin’s move to launch a formal reconstruction initiative underscores the political and logistical challenges posed by the conflict’s spillover into Russian territory. It also reflects a broader attempt to reassure local populations and bolster administrative control in regions facing direct impacts from the war.

No timeline has been announced for the completion of the restoration programme.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/05/int ... an-border/

******

Recycling Old News Media Push For More War In Ukraine

Yesterday, during a lengthy interview, the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz mention the lifting of restrictions on western weapons used by Ukraine.

Media took that as a new revelation:

Merz says no more range limits for weapons supplied to Kyiv - DW, May 26
Germany’s Merz backs Ukraine’s long-range missile strikes on Russia - FT, May 26
Western allies lift Ukraine's restrictions on long-range weapons, says Merz - Euronews, May 26
> German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced on Monday that Germany, along with France, the UK and the US, had lifted restrictions on the range of weapons they are sending to Ukraine to help in the fight against Russia.
"There are no longer any range restrictions on weapons delivered to Ukraine — neither by the British nor by the French nor by us nor by the Americans," he said at the WDR Europaforum 2025 at the re:publica digital conference in Berlin. <


Some media even claimed that Merz had cleared the path for the delivery of German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine:

Germany and its key allies have lifted range restrictions on weapons sent to Ukraine allowing Kyiv to hit targets inside Russia with no external limits, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Monday.
That announcement by the German leader could clear the path for Berlin to finally deliver its powerful Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv, something that the previous government refused to do so as not to provoke nuclear-armed Russia.


I was astonished seeing this. There had been nothing new in Merz' announcement.

President Joe Biden had lifted all restrictions on U.S. delivered weapons many months ago:

Biden allows Ukraine to use US arms to strike inside Russia - Reuters, Nav 18 2024

Britain had even been earlier:

UK gives Ukraine green light to use British weapons inside Russia - Atlantic Council, May 3 2024

France, also many moths ago, had likewise been open to this.

Moreover Ukraine has long run out of western donated long range weapons:

The green light to fire long-range missiles at Russia means little if "our cupboard is totally empty," added Ivan Stupak, a former officer with Ukraine's SBU security service."

The last ATACMS strike on Russian targets has happened many months ago. The last interdiction of an ATMCMS strike by Russia was reported on January 17. Strikes with British Storm Shadow or French Scalp missiles have likewise vanished.

There was thereby nothing new in Merz' talk. He had not even mentioned Taurus missiles which will NOT be delivered to Ukraine for several good reasons:

Taurus contains components which are under U.S. export restrictions. The U.S. would have to green light a delivery of those.
Taurus is air launched. Ukraine does not have the means, i.e. the right airplanes, to launch Taurus from high attitudes.
Taurus requires other German systems, and, most crucial, German specialists to be targeted and used.


Merz was clearly surprised that his mentioning of the release of restrictions, which had happened months ago, was suddenly presented as a new development or policy change. Today the chancellor was pushed to clarify it:

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the decision to lift restrictions on the range of weapons supplied to Kiev was made several months ago, RIA Novosti reported.
"As far as I know, and I repeated it yesterday, the countries that imposed range restrictions have long since abandoned these conditions. Therefore, yesterday in Berlin I described what happened several months ago, namely that Ukraine has the right to use the weapons it receives, including outside its borders, against military targets on Russian territory," Merz said at a joint press conference with Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo.


The media who carried yesterday's sensational headline have yet to wake up to this. I doubt that they even want to do so. They will most likely ignored Merz' clarification.

There is an unmissable war-frenzy in the media. Even the tiniest side remark by Trump, Merz or someone else is immediately explained as a war escalation.

The journalists writing those headlines, and the bloggers repeating them, seem eager to push for it.

Who told them to do so?

Posted by b on May 27, 2025 at 14:51 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/05/r ... .html#more

*****

The many lives of Andrei Portnov

Three decades of the Ukrainian deep state. 'Get fucked, prosecutor'

Events in Ukraine
May 27, 2025

May 22. 9:15AM. The Madrid American School. A 51-year-old man drops off his two daughters. He returns back to his Mercedes.

Four bullets in the chest. One in the head. He lies face down in the concrete. A ‘professional hit’.

Image

Andrey Portnov was born in 1973. His assassination is quite different from the other recent killings I’ve covered recently. He was no mere nationalist freak, to be manipulated, used, and disposed by the real political players. He was as much a political heavyweight as anyone.

Portnov knew many secrets – a highly valuable commodity, but also a dangerous one.

Image

Along with his secrets, his life itself presents a range of highly illuminating paradoxes.

Paradoxes, because he managed to straddle a wide range of seemingly contradictory political positions. Hated as pro-Russian by Ukrainian liberals and nationalists, decried as a traitor by many actually pro-Russian Ukrainians currently living in Russia. A man whose killing has been celebrated on Ukraine’s state-controlled television and western-funded liberal media – yet also a seemingly all-powerful figure in Zelensky’s deep state. A man called a traitor by just about every political clan in Ukraine, yet one who managed to outlive all too many of his former bosses…

Until now.

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The USAID-funded ‘anti-corruption’ publication Bihus.info celebrates Portnov’s death with a drink
Illuminating, because Ukrainian politics is defined by just such a paradoxical world of betrayals, divided loyalties, cynicism, and mysterious, random death.

There’s also another way to describe Portnov, one he favored - an advocate of Ukrainian sovereignty. He was one of the most articulate critics of the ‘foreign control’ of the country that had taken grip since 2014, but he also sharply condemned the Russian military intervention of 2022.

Hence, today’s article will be concerned with Portnov’s life not simply because it could explain his death – but because of his crucial role at the intersection between pro-western and sovereigntist vectors of Ukrainian politics, as well as between Ukrainian and Russian officialdom. Understanding the nature of the Zelensky elite is no easy task. Portnov was a crucial piece of the puzzle.

Image

Perhaps most importantly, Portnov signaled the possibility of the ‘Georgian scenario’ - that Ukraine under Zelensky would drift towards ever-warming neutrality towards Russia. The Donbass could be reintegrated on the basis of a more democratic, tolerant polity. A scenario that was most possible in the 2019-21 period, when Portnov returned to the country.

However, western media worries that peace could still return to Ukraine. The same day Portnov was assassinated, JPMorgan put out the following prediction on what fate Ukraine might expect:

Image
Image

My Ukrainian friends reacted to this conception with laughter. After all, what it is really saying is that:

The best case scenario is one wherein the war never ends, and Ukraine is granted a murderous fascist dictatorship that kills hundreds of thousands of its own people

Still OK is Israel - need I elaborate?

Not great is a country free of war for almost ten years, one that tries to conduct diplomacy and trade with all countries of the world

The worst case is a country which hasn’t suffered from any wars since 1945, and where the quality of life for ordinary citizens is many times higher than that in either Georgia or Ukraine

Anyway, back to the complex hero of today’s article, a man dedicated to just such a ‘not great’ scenario.

Portnov’s death has provoked no shortage of obituaries narrating his illustrious life. All of them include various hypotheses on the causes of his death. Many contradict each other. To begin with, 7,666 words on the established facts.

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(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... ei-portnov

******

About threats of shelling
May 28, 9:43

Image

About threats of shelling Russia from the cocaine Fuhrer.


1. The enemy is already regularly trying to use a large number of aircraft-type drones against the territory of the Russian Federation.

2. Less intensively tries to use various cruise missiles and modified anti-ship missiles.

3. In the border regions, it actively uses Western MLRS and Hummer and JDAM guided bombs.

4. Our air defense shoots down most of them. With further investments in the development of target air defense and mobile air defense in the directions, the percentage of shootdowns can certainly be increased.

5. In the current reality, even the possible transfer of Taurus missiles will not radically change the dynamics of what is happening at the front, which is not at all in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

6. Accordingly, the enemy is unlikely to be able to offer us anything fundamentally new, except for an increase in the use of aircraft-type drones and a slight increase in attempts to strike with missiles. Therefore, by strengthening our air defense and at the same time inflicting increasingly painful blows on the enemy, who has a much weaker air defense, we will continue to achieve an advantage in this exchange of blows over the long term.

7. The threats of the cocaine Fuhrer are aimed at somehow raising morale in Ukraine after the heavy blows of our missiles and drones and the worsening situation at the front with the loss of dozens of settlements in recent weeks.

We remain determined and move towards our goal.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9864609.html

Liberation of the Green Field
May 28, 1:21 PM

Image

The units of the "Vostok" group liberated the settlement of Zelenoye Pole

(Video at link.)

During the offensive actions of the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 5th Army of the "Vostok" group, the settlement of Zelenoye Pole was liberated.
Control was established over a fortified defense area more than 3 km deep and up to 2 km along the front.
The Far Easterners are consolidating their positions.

As a result of fierce battles, up to 460 buildings were cleared, up to a company of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed.
It was the soldiers of the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment who paved the way for further advancement. The Far Eastern "Express" picked up speed and is approaching the Dnipropetrovsk region at full speed.
The "Vostok" group continues its offensive, breaking through the enemy's defenses, demoralizing them and leaving the Nazis no chance!
We continue to monitor the successes

of @voin_dv - zinc

. In fact, after the liberation of Zelenoye Pole, the road opens for advancement to the Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk regions in another area. The enemy's defense in Novopol should soon fall. The Far Easterners are really going well. But the main intermediate target in the South Donetsk direction is Komar. It is still about 1.5 kilometers away, while our troops are bypassing Fedorovka. The fall of Komar will complete the liberation of the southwest of the DPR.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9865174.html

Grandfather from Gogolevka
May 27, 9:10 PM

Image

A grandfather who was abused by Ukrainian Nazis was found murdered in the Kursk region

(Video at link.)

Footage of Alexander Grigoriev on captured Kursk land was published on 15.08.2024 by the Ukrainian Armed Forces themselves, posing in German uniform and feigning a characteristic accent. Later, the enemy assured that it allegedly saved the life of the pensioner, who had been missing all this time. It has already become known that Grigoriev was killed by Ukrainian occupiers.

“He was in the village of Gogolevka in the Sudzhansky District the whole time, where he had lived before. [They said that they used] some kind of heavy firearm. They showed what a huge hole he had in his stomach. There was also some kind of wound,” said the daughter of the deceased.

Eternal memory to the innocent victim! And a curse forever to the Ukrainian Nazis!


https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9864025.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14413
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
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Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu May 29, 2025 11:45 am

Missiles and memoranda
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 05/29/2025

Image

Just a few days after the Greens and the CDU invited a member of Azov, a veteran of all kinds of far-right, if not neo-Nazi, organizations, including Patriot of Ukraine, to the Bundestag, Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Berlin on a working visit focused on purely military issues. For several years, Ukraine has been demanding from Germany the delivery of Taurus long-range missiles, with a range sufficient to reach Moscow, a significant part of the military bases that Russia is using in its attacks against Ukraine, and the military industry that makes them possible. According to several media outlets, this was the objective with which the Ukrainian leader came to the German capital, where he was received with honors. For the third consecutive day, Chancellor Merz referred to the absence of restrictions on the use of long-range weapons outside Ukrainian territory, that is, on mainland Russia, not just in Crimea, and committed to Ukraine obtaining the necessary weapons for this purpose.

However, for the time being, the new chancellor has not yet approved the delivery of Taurus missiles, and Zelensky and Umerov, his defense minister, had to settle for a consolation prize in the form of a memorandum of cooperation for the production of long-range missiles. The tactic of progressive escalation has led to a sustained increase in Ukraine's military capability, shifting from initial defensive armament to long-range artillery, Western tanks, missiles, aircraft, and finally permission for the use of all of these in the Russian Federation. On this wish list, from which Ukraine has been obtaining, not always as quickly as it had demanded, each and every one of the items included, only the Taurus missiles remain (some also add the American Tomahawks, which are currently a pipe dream). For the time being, even Friedrich Merz, much more in favor of military support for Ukraine than his predecessor, has also preferred to support Ukraine in other ways rather than give in to Ukrainian prayers. “You know that, in the end, you will hand them over to us,” Dmitro Kuleba reproached Annalena Baerbock in September 2023, demanding speed. A year and a half later, Germany still prefers to finance and support Ukraine in the development of future missiles rather than supply Taurus, the use of which would involve the presence of German soldiers and expose Germany to being considered by Russia, as RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan suggested yesterday, a direct participant in the war.

“There will be no restrictions on long-range weapons. Ukraine will be able to fully defend itself and also strike military targets outside its territory,” Merz reiterated, alongside the announcement of military cooperation between Rheinmetall and the Ukrainian military complex. The statement, like Zelensky's visit, is as much military as it is political, as it puts additional pressure on Russia through the threat of massive missile use in its rear. The tactic represents a return to the fall of 2024, when the policy of allowing the use of Western missiles in oblasts such as Kursk and Belgorod began to be implemented. However, it currently occurs in a context of escalating threats and an attempt by each side to use the tools at their disposal to acquire an image of strength in view of possible negotiations.

In both cases, this positioning stems from flexing its muscles on the front lines. In Russia's case, its advances in Donetsk, the most fortified part of the front, and the recent advances in Sumi, where until last Sunday Ukraine denied the obvious Russian presence, are only part of the argument. The way in which Moscow's air and missile operations have exposed the shortage of ammunition for Ukraine's air defense systems this past week has been the clearest demonstration of Russian superiority at this time. Hence the new push by Zelensky and his team for the usual package of massive sanctions against Russia, the supply of long-range weapons to attack the Russian rear hundreds of kilometers from the front, and new air defense systems, especially Patriot systems, to defend against Russian missiles. And in political-military terms, Ukraine continues to seek displays of unity and absolute support for Kyiv in the form of images that can be used as demonstrations of force. After all, as a proxy for the West and economically, diplomatically, and militarily dependent on European and North American countries, Ukraine is aware that its main argument for demonstrating its power is precisely to extol the strength of its allies. This is why Zelensky demands immediate condemnation from Donald Trump after every Russian missile or drone attack, and it is also the basis for the rationale behind seeking to be present in every international forum.

The most important of these for kyiv is, of course, the annual NATO summit. The situation has changed a lot compared to previous years, and the displays of camaraderie that once existed threaten to be less abundant this time around. “The Secretary General wants Ukraine to be there,” Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday, referring to Ukraine’s presence at the summit of a military alliance to which it does not belong and where a considerable number of countries believe its accession would be counterproductive. Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine’s accession to NATO makes a repeat of the scenes of a few months ago, with President Zelensky at the center of the summit, even more unlikely. However, some habits persist, and the Ukrainian government demands to be present at a meeting where, regardless of the United States’ position, Ukraine will continue to act as a lobbying force seeking its accession. The arguments, as until now, will be twofold: the idea that Ukraine's immediate accession to the Alliance would automatically mean the end of the war—although all evidence indicates it would be the catalyst for a military escalation, not peace—and the country's value as a defense against future Russian aggression from other European countries. Seeking the opportunity to repeat that message, surrounded by the leaders of the member countries and before the world's press, Zelensky yesterday resorted to the same tactic Ukraine is using with Donald Trump: warning of defeat if Ukraine does not give kyiv what it seeks. Applied to the current situation, Zelensky's argument is that the absence of a NATO invitation to Ukraine to participate in this year's summit would be "a victory for Vladimir Putin" over the Alliance.

Just as simplistic is the argument used yesterday by his right-hand man, Andriy Ermak, who wrote on social media that "Russia continues to drag its feet and cannot even fulfill the promise it made to the United States about a ceasefire. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire a long time ago: because we are reliable partners, we want to end the war, and we keep our word. The Russians are masters of empty words." Considering that the only truce the Russian Federation committed to with the United States was a maritime one that excluded energy infrastructure from attacks, and that this ceasefire ended without being extended (although no Russian attacks on electrical infrastructure have occurred since then and the focus is now on the military industry), Ermak's words are meaningless. Moreover, it was kyiv that committed—under US pressure—to this ceasefire, which it continues to unconditionally demand from Russia, even though its desire was for an air-only truce.

Ukraine, which claims that Russia is not complying with a ceasefire it has not yet committed to, hoping that, when it comes, it will be the first step toward political negotiations to resolve the conflict, insists that Russia has broken its word. Meanwhile, kyiv, which proposed a mutual halt to the use of drones and missiles, has made them its main strategy to claim its military capability to threaten Russia on its territory.

The shortage of missiles, whether its own or donated by the West, prevents Ukraine from continuing its campaign of massive air attacks. Kiev continues to use its drones to attack Russian industry. Yesterday, in another night of hundreds of drones, Kiev attacked what is known as Russia's Silicon Valley in the south of the country, damaging a technology park, in addition to carrying out its usual attacks to disrupt the operation of airports in the Russian Federation. Moscow claimed to have shot down nearly 300 Ukrainian drones over the regions of Moscow, Belgorod, Bryansk, Ivanovo, Kursk, Oryol, Ryazan, Smolensk, Tula, Tver, Vladimir, and Voronezh.

Like Russia, Ukraine also wants to demonstrate its military strength through clearly spectacular attacks to position itself for the continuation of the negotiations. It was reported yesterday that contact between the two countries has been maintained since the Istanbul meeting. According to the Ukrainian daily Strana, the leader of the Kiev delegation, Minister Rustem Umerov, telephoned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Medinsky after the completion of the prisoner exchange, a requirement Russia had imposed for the delivery of its peace memorandum. "There will be," Medinsky responded to the question of when the Kremlin will deliver the document, which Donald Trump's envoy for Ukraine is demanding as a starting point for understanding Russia's negotiating position.

In the same interview, General Kellogg mentioned Geneva as a possible meeting location for three presidents of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine. The rush and desire to speed up negotiations that are of no interest to it are leading Washington to seek to move directly to what Russia considers the final step: a leaders' meeting, a more logical path in which delegations would negotiate the many details that will need to be agreed upon so that the presidents can ultimately refine the final terms and reach a treaty. Adhering to this idea of ​​putting the cart before the horse and avoiding the more specific questions about terms that Ukraine does not wish to negotiate, Zelensky stated yesterday that he was prepared to meet with Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in any format, a statement that the media reported as a proposal from the Ukrainian president and not a repetition of the statements of the White House envoy.

Visibly uncomfortable with Keith Kellogg's every word, not least because he currently ends each of his posts on Ukraine with a "ceasefire now," Russia has rejected the possibility of a meeting in Switzerland and insists on continuing with the Istanbul process, that is, starting from the ground up to build the diplomatic process from the ground up. Moscow is even proposing a date, June 2, to continue bilateral negotiations, all while trying to stay away from US proposals, especially those of General Kellogg, and Donald Trump's veiled threats. "He doesn't realize that if I weren't here, very bad things would happen to Russia," the US president had stated the day before. Without forcing the pace, but according to the agreed timeline, Sergey Lavrov confirmed yesterday that Russia has already prepared the promised memorandum. “The Russian side, as promised, has quickly developed the corresponding memorandum, which outlines our position on all aspects to reliably overcome the root causes of the crisis,” stated the Russian Foreign Minister, who insists that not only the war must be resolved, but also the deeper political conflict between Moscow and Kyiv since 2014. “Our delegation, led by Medinsky, is ready to present the memorandum to the Ukrainian delegation and provide the necessary explanations during the second round of the resumption of direct negotiations in Istanbul,” added the Russian diplomat. With this message, Russia insists on bilateral and technical negotiations rather than trilateral ones that are purely political and limited to leaders, and on linking the current process with that of three years ago—precisely the scenario Ukraine is trying to avoid.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/05/29/32309/

Google Translator

********

U.S.-Supplied Air Defenses Fail In Ukraine

On May 23 the former Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian army had a pessimistic assessment of the war in Ukraine (machine translation):

Former commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and now Ambassador to the UK Valery Zaluzhny said that Russia has overtaken Ukraine in innovations on the battlefield.
...
According to him, Ukraine at the moment "does not manage to continuously generate and scale innovations, even in those areas where yesterday we were ahead of the enemy."
"The enemy has already overtaken us and we are lagging behind – and we must be honest about this," he said.
...
The ex-commander-in-chief believes that the Russian Federation is now waging a war of attrition. In response, it is necessary, according to Zaluzhny, "to undermine the economy and social component in order to deprive Russia of the possibility of scientific and technological development and start the processes of civil unrest and disintegration."

How to do this, the ex-commander-in-chief does not specify, ...


Zaluzhny was likely not only referring to the drone war which Russia is winning but also to the mediocre state of Ukraine's air defenses.

A day after Zaluzhny, the spokesman of the Air Force of Ukraine confirmed his take (machine translation):

Russia has improved its ballistic missiles, so Patriot systems have become worse at shooting them down. This was stated by the head of the Communications Department of the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuriy Ignat, commenting on today's night shelling of Kiev.
Iskander-M missiles, which attack along a ballistic trajectory, have been significantly improved and upgraded

"We are talking about shooting radar traps, which each missile can shoot during the approach to the target. Another is the flight of a ballistic missile along a quasi-ballistic trajectory, when the missile does not fly in a straight line, but already performs maneuvers, " he said on the telethon.


The new Iskander versions use decoys to confuse the air defense radars. They also maneuver during the last phase of their flight making their interception nearly impossible.

Reporting on the large scale Saturday night attack on Ukraine the Washington Post noted that the U.S. provided Patriot air defenses systems in Ukraine had failed (archived):

The Russian assault involved nearly 400 missiles and drones, including nine ballistic missiles that Ukrainian air defenses, already strained and in short supply, failed to intercept, Ukraine’s air force said.

Some of the Russian missiles destroyed at least one Patriot air defense battery. Each battery consists of a radar, a combat control station and two or more launcher vehicles. The cost for a full battery is about $1 billion. Each fired missile comes at a price of $2-4 million.


Image

The Patriot battery killed during the weekend strike was not the first one to meet that fate.

The Military Watch Magazine has documented the history of the system in Ukraine:

The Iskander system was first confirmed to have successfully destroyed a Patriot system on February 23, 2024, with a subsequent strike destroying another system near the Sergeevka locality on March 10 that year, leaving ground forces in the region exposed. Subsequently in the second week of July, 2024, new footage confirmed the destruction of two batteries in the Odessa region, while on August 11 three more missile batteries and an AN/MPQ-65 radar were reported to have been destroyed in Iskander-M strikes. One of the Iskander-M’s more recent successes saw the destruction of the Patriot’s AN/MPQ-65 multifunctional radar station, combat control cabin, and missile launch vehicles all destroyed in the Dnepropetrovsk region.
Together with the one on Saturday/Sunday that sums up to a total of ten destroyed systems. That is likely more than half of the total provided by the U.S. and its allies.


The Patriot air defense system is quite old. The first version was used 35 years ago during the first U.S. war on Iraq. It largely failed to achieve its mission:

In 1992 a military report titled ‘Patriot Missile System Effectiveness During Desert Storm’ found that of the 158 missiles fired during the Gulf War, 45 percent were launched against false targets. An early 1990s study by Theodore Postol, professor of Science, Technology and International Security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and prominent expert on missile technologies, highlighted: “The Patriot's intercept rate during the Gulf War was very low. The evidence from these preliminary studies indicates that Patriot's intercept rate could be much lower than 10 percent, possibly even zero." Even “the most primitive of adversaries" could easily evade interception, his study concluded.

New versions of the Patriot's radar and missiles, PAC-2 and PAC-3, were introduced but continued to fail:

Following the revelations of the Patriot system’s shortcomings in the Gulf War, there were considerable hopes in the Western world that its modernisation would allow it to provide a much more viable defence against ballistic missile attacks. Such hopes were disappointed by its performance during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and moreso 14 years later when further modernised variants failed to intercept a strike by makeshift ballistic missiles launched by Yemeni paramilitaries against Saudi Arabia in 2017. The Yemeni missiles were shown by satellite imagery and by photos and videos of the attack not to have been neutralised, despite claims by the Saudi and U.S. government sources to the contrary. Analysis conducted by a research team of missile experts showed a warhead flying unimpeded over Saudi Arabia despite its large arsenal of modernised Patriot batteries protecting the affected area.

The magazine concludes:

The questions more recently raised by Ukrainian officials regarding the Patriot system’s reliability against Russian ballistic missile attacks thus fit in with a long history of underwhelming performances in such a role. This has significant implications for militaries across the Western world and in Northeast Asia that rely on the system for their defence.

Another failure point of the Patriot system is the notorious lack of ammunition needed for it. According to The Economist (archived) the current production rate for Patriot systems is 650 missiles per year. Over the same time frame Russia is producing 750 ballistic missiles each at about 10% of the price of one Patriot missile.

Despite the poor record of the system Ukraine is, according to the Washington Post, still eager to acquire more of them (archived):

KYIV — Ukraine is increasingly worried about securing more U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems, as stockpiles sent during the Biden administration are drying up and the new administration is resistant to sending more, according to six Ukrainian and Western officials.
...
Ukraine’s dire need for Patriots was apparent over Memorial Day weekend when its air defense forces failed to intercept any of the nine ballistic missiles launched Saturday night and early on Sunday. Two of the missiles were directed at Kyiv, according to Ukraine’s air defense forces, where at least two Patriot units are believed to be stationed.


One of those Patriot units most likely no longer exists.

The Post fails to explain why Ukraine should or would ask for more Patriot systems when, as the same report says, these fail their purpose.

The Post's opinion editors are even worse. Despite multiple reports in their own paper that Patriot systems are not able to defend against Russian missiles they falsely state (archived) that they can do so, only to then repeat that they don't:

What scares Ukraine more than the drones, however, is its diminishing stockpile of U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems. Ballistic missiles fired by Russia can be reliably countered only with Patriot launchers. On Saturday night, Ukraine failed to intercept nine such missile launches.
The editors seem to imply that Ukraine failed to intercept the Iskander missiles because it was lacking Patriot air defense missiles. But that was not the case. Video from the Saturday night attack shows the firing of at least 14 Patriot missiles by two batteries before one of them goes up in flames.

Image

None of the 14 fired air defense missiles had hit the incoming ballistic missile.

[The Post editors are lobbying for secondary sanctions in form of additional tariffs on products from anyone who buys basic materials from Russia. The tariffs would have to be paid by U.S. consumers. They would hurt the U.S. more than they would hurt Russia and certainly fail to help Ukraine.]

To summarize: Patriot air defenses are a chimera. The system has failed its purpose, to reliably defend against ballistic missile, since its creation.

The only reliable target it manages to intercept each and every time a missile is launched is taxpayer money. One wonders how many bribes are flowing to generate further requests for it.

Posted by b on May 28, 2025 at 16:41 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/05/u ... .html#more

*******

Book/film club announcement: Taras Bulba
History of the Cossacks. Questions before watching or reading. 'Hanging by the ribs on hooks embedded in the wall by the sea bay’
Events in Ukraine
May 26, 2025

I am excited to announce a new format for this substack – book club. And film club as well. I’ll choose various culturally important films and books for the post-soviet world, naturally with a focus on Ukraine.

Each work will have two posts dedicated to it. First of all, a broad introduction, featuring the relevant historical and cultural context, as well as a link to read or watch the work in question. Next, once interested readers have consumed it, a post will be released analyzing the plot and themes of the work in more detail, spoilers included.

Our first object of study is Nikolai Gogol’s great 19th century historical epic, Taras Bulba, as well as the 2009 film adaptation.

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Image

An English translation can be read here, and a torrent of the 2009 film can be easily found online. Since the film follows the plot and even dialogue of the novel quite closely, there is no sin in watching it. In any case, the film and its reception will also be the subject of our article.

Why Taras Bulba? In the western world, Gogol is most well-known for Dead Souls. But I daresay that Taras Bulba is more often referenced in contemporary Ukraine and Russia.

The story is set in Ukraine, focusing on the 17th century struggle by the Cossacks against the Polish yoke. It treats eternally relevant conflicts – Russian Orthodoxy against Western Catholicism, loyalty against temptation, father against son, East against West. Besides that, the story is eminently lively, as well as featuring a shocking amount of brutal violence.

Some historical context on the Cossacks is necessary. Though ubiquitous in Ukrainian culture and historical consciousness, they are less well-known elsewhere. Like most things understanding it requires us to turn the clock of history back 1000 years or so. Sorry Tucker.

From about the 9th to 13th centuries, a multitude of cities were scattered across the lands of modern southern Russia and Ukraine. These cities were ruled by princes, with the most powerful such city being Kiev. Naturally so, given that the main source of revenue at the time was trade conducted along the highways of the time, rivers. The river Dnepr was the main such highway. Starting in Byzantine Constantinople, goods travelled over the Black Sea, entered the Dnepr, then passed by Kiev, Smolensk, and Novgorod, all the way to the Baltic Sea, where they could be shipped to the Scandinavian Varangians.

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Nowadays, politicians try to transplant modern conceptions of nations and states to this period. In fact, there was no ‘state’ known as ‘Ancient Rus’ or ‘Kievan Rus’ or even ‘Kyivan Rus’. Kiev was the largest and most powerful such city, and at various periods the other cities were its vassals. But there was a a multitude of princes, whose main pastime was to conduct fratricidal wars. Not too different from the modern era, I admit.

This period of feudal fragmentation was quite self-destructive for economic reasons as well. Each city depended to a significant degree on selling off its own rural population as slaves to the highest foreign bidder.

Hence, when the Mongols swept through the Eurasian steppe in the 1200s, century, the civilization of ancient Rus crumbled like sand. The southern cities suffered the most, being closest to the constant raids by the Mongols and their various allies. Kiev, pillaged and looted, fell in 1240 to Batu Khan, ending the story of ‘ancient Rus’. Modern-day Ukraine became the ‘wild field’, a space largely denuded of people due to the constant threat of death and enslavement.

However, by about the 15th century – historical knowledge on the topic remains uncertain – a new form of settlement took place in this space. Peasants fled their lords from both the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the emerging Muscovy. They fled to Zaporozhia – za meaning ‘beyond’, and ‘porog’ meaning ‘the rapids’. Their former lords could certainly not reach them beyond such a formidable natural obstacle (one greatly tamed by the Soviet dams of the 1930s).

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Franz Roubaud, 1881 - Attack of the Zaporozhians on the steppe

In the mid-16th century, the Zaporizhian Sich (fortress) would emerge, with which the historical mythos of the Cossacks is tightly linked. It can be seen on the map below on the far left. The area is today a museum complex.

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The Zaporizhian Sich memorial complex on the island Khortytsa

They organized themselves into brotherhoods called ‘koshevs’. Like much for the Cossacks, the word has Turkish origin, coming from the word ‘kışla’, meaning fort or camp. The ‘Koshevoy’, in turn, was the leader of the Kosh, elected by the Cossack Rada, or council.

A far greater threat than their old lords was the ever-present menace of the various splinters of the Golden Horde – the Nogai steppe peoples, the Crimean Khanate, and soon the Ottoman Empire.

The lives of the Cossacks were hence highly militarized. There was no place here for women, which lent a particular flavor to their way of life. A major part of their livelihood was raids on anyone they could reach, particularly to the west and south.

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Ilya Repin’s famous 1891 painting - The Zaporozhians write a letter to the Turkish Sultan

In short, they were land pirates (though they conducted raids by boat quite often as well). Like any pirates, they were composed of a wide range of individuals fleeing something or other – peasants from taxes and their lords, criminals from justice, noble adventurers from mediocrity and failure at home. The Marxist historians might call it ‘social banditry’.

They were also composed of a range of nationalities. Though the vast majority proclaimed Orthodox Christianity as the righteous banner that justified their raids on the ‘heretical’ Poles and Turks, their ethnic makeup was quite complex. Anyone could join their ranks after simply swearing faith to Orthodoxy. Many Cossacks were recruited from the various nomadic Turkic peoples. There were even Armenians and former Jews.

In fact, despite their constant references to Christianity, the Cossacks were highly influenced by the East. The word Cossack itself comes from the Turkic word for ‘free man’, one who is neither a slave nor pays taxes. There were many representatives of the Turkic steppe nomads in their ranks – Nogai, Turks, Crimean Tartars, and many others. They simply slavicized their names and adopted Orthodoxy.

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The Nogai horde

In fact, there was much in the clothing, customs, and general lifestyle of the Cossacks that imitated the Turkic steppe nomads. In the 20th century, anti-Cossack Russian nationalist historian Nikolai Ulyanov would blame what he saw as the defective nature of Cossack society on just this ‘barbaric eastern influence’.

This is quite relevant, since the Cossacks have become highly mythologized over the past few centuries. One particularly popular narrative in Ukraine is that the Cossacks, who supposedly made up a proto-state formation, were representatives of the intrinsic Ukrainian drive towards freedom. Besides that, their many wars against the ‘Eastern Barbarians’ are said to represent Ukraine’s perennial role as a ‘forepost of western civilization’. Finally, the Cossacks are even credited with invented ‘the world’s first constitution’. Much emphasis is also placed on the supposed egalitarianism and democracy of Cossack society.

In any case, by the 16th century the Cossacks were under great pressure from the Turks (the term assuming under it a wide range of other allied peoples). At this point in history, Muscovy was still quite busy fighting against rival state entities in modern-day Russia, as well as beating back the much more powerful Crimean Khanate and other Turkic nomads (Moscow would be burnt to the ground not once all the way until 1571). Moscow (the term ‘Russia’ began to be used in the 1600s) was also at constant war with the Poles, but over the western city of Smolensk, not modern-day Ukraine.

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The Crimean Tartars burn down Moscow, 1571

With no one better to choose, the Cossacks hence made an alliance with Poland in the first half of the 1500s. At first informal, it eventually became less so.

For their part, the Catholic Poles were quite happy to gain a buffer region against the Ottomans. However, this necessitated a rather controversial formalization of Cossack society. The Polish crown couldn’t afford to pay all the Cossacks. In any case, what is today called ‘Cossack society’ was in fact largely made up of peasants who simply conducted agriculture without paying taxes to a central authority (which didn’t mean there wasn’t any extortion by the Cossack elite, of course). As a result, a ‘registry’ of approved Cossacks was created in 1572, numbering only 300.

Naturally, this created great jealousy and resentment on the side of those many thousands of Cossacks not in the registry. The Poles, in turn, cracked down on the unregistered Cossacks who continued to bear arms. Under the pressure of constant Cossack uprisings, the registry was constantly expanded, but it was never enough.

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The 1649 Cossack registry allowed 40,000 to officially work on the Crown

There were plenty of other causes for tension between the Poles and the Cossacks. To begin with, Poland was a real state, unlike the Cossack Sich. This meant that the Poles engaged in diplomatic relations with other states and made formal agreements with them. The Cossacks, who depended to a major extent on piracy, were hence prone to attacking the Ottoman empire and its subjects when a period of peace formally existed between Poland and the Ottomans. This naturally led to constant tension between the Poles and the Cossacks.

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A Painting of the 1621 peace treaty of Khotyn between the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Ottoman Empire, drawn by Marcello Bacciarelli

Apart from that, there were many forces in the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth that were quite fanatical in their Catholicism, particularly the local representatives of the Jesuit order. The Orthodox peasants of eastern Poland (modern-day west Ukraine and Belarus) were hence not only cruelly economically exploited but also faced constant attacks on their religion. This also angered the Cossacks, whose predatory way of life coexisted with a self-consciousness as ‘defenders of the faith’ (not that they went to church particularly often). In turn, Cossacks not on the Register were under constant threat of being forcibly returned to servitude.

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Finally, the Cossacks were simply antagonistic to any form of authority. The Cossack elite was not willing to lose the rents it gained from extorting weaker Cossacks and ‘Cossack’ peasants. This meant that the Cossack elite inevitably came into conflict with whatever state – Catholic or Orthodox – it formally allied with.

Dating problems
The events of Taras Bulba logically must have taken place in the early 17th century. There is also reference at the end of the novel to the failed 1638 uprising of Ostryanin and Gunya. By this point, there were near constant Cossack rebellions against the Polish authorities. These uprisings were bloody – the Cossacks slaughtered any Poles and Jews they could find, while the Polish authorities did the same towards Orthodox communities.

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Yakub Ostryanin, the Cossack hetman (leader) who led the 1638 uprising

A word about the Jews, since they are quite prominent in Taras Bulba. They were largely employed as the middlemen for Polish exploitation on the vast latifundia of colonized eastern Poland. Hence, Orthodox peasants largely associated their oppression with them. For those interested in the topic of the Jews in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, I recommend Israel Shahak’s book Jewish History, Jewish Religion, and the first volume of Norman Davies God’s Playground.

But despite these frequent wars, relations between the Poles and the Cossacks were quite complex. The Orthodox clergy, for its part, was largely defensive of the status quo. And the registered Cossack elite – as well as just about any Cossack – wanted nothing more than the attain the ‘golden freedoms’ of the Polish nobility. For there was no nobility more free – or peasant more oppressed – than that in Poland.

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Jan Mateijko’s painting the Election of the Polish King in 1573. The King was largely powerless before the nobility, particularly the rich magnates, concentrated in the east. Because of the power of the magnates, attempts by the king to satisfy the demands of the Cossacks were futile.

In this context, it should also be mentioned that the Zaporizhian Sich - the Cossack fortress which Taras Bulba so glorifies - was itself created by a noble of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth - Prince Dmytro Vyshnevetsky. He was himself Orthodox Christian, and a representative of a famous ‘Ruthenian’ (ie, east slav Orthodox, not Polish) family.

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The prince had a characteristically Cossack hairstyle - the ‘chub’ topknot. This, too, was modeled on Turkic traditions.

He had quite the interesting life - while the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was at constant war with the rising Moscow, Vyshnevetsky turned sides and swore loyalty to the Russian Tsar Ivan IV in 1558. The cause was Poland’s refusal to fight against the Turks. Vyshnevetsky was captured by the Ottoman Sultan Suleiman I in 1561 in Moldova, where he was executed after refusing to adopt Islam.

More specifically, he was sentenced to ‘hanging by the ribs on hooks embedded in the wall by the sea bay’. After three days of torture, he was put out of his misery.

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Vyshnevetsky comes to serve the Russian Tsar

Though Vyshnevetsky switched sides, rich Cossacks were quite highly integrated into the Polish aristocracy. They had the same ideals of freedom and honor, and likely shared plenty of the famous Polish disdain for the lower classes. Their discontent with the Poles, when it existed, largely came when they were still refused some privileges by the Catholic elites.

And a final note on historical periodization. Despite his great historical interest in the topic and the fact that Gogol’s ancestors were supposedly Cossacks, Taras Bulba does bear some historical contradictions.

To begin with, the novel begins by claiming that the events take place in ‘the difficult 15th century’. This is entirely impossible, since the Zaporizhian Sich, is the main topic of the novel, was only founded in 1552.

Furthermore, Cossack protests against the Poles only really started in the later half of the 1500s, after the appearance of the aforementioned registry in 1572. And Gogol further complicates the timeline by reference to ‘the right-bank Hetmanate’. The division of modern-day Ukraine along the banks of the river Dnepr only took much later, in 1660 - after the Russian Tsar finally responded to the entreaties of the Cossacks to do battle with the cursed Poles. But Taras Bulba is quite clear, particularly at the end, that the ‘northern Russians’ are still yet to come to the aid of their Orthodox brethren.

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In the 1654 Pereiaslav Rada, the Cossacks under the leadership of Hetman Bohdan Khmelnitsky swore fealty to the Russian tsar, though debates on interpretation of the agreement rage to this day. In any case, it was only with this help that the Cossacks finally managed not to lose against the Poles.

Even though could have been no right-bank Hetmanate in the 15th century, it is worth explaining what happened there. This territory, unlike the Russian-allied/controlled left-bank, was allied/controlled by the Poles. Both sides had a Hetman, or leader. The Hetman of right-bank Ukraine was Petro Doroshenko - quite an unpopular Hetman, and one who, I believe, has every right to be compared to Petro Poroshenko, president of Ukraine from 2014-2019.

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Doroshenko’s reign (1665-1676) is said to have been one that attempted to increase the independence of his chunk of territory from both the Poles and the Russians, along with the expansion of right-bank Cossack military forces. However, he also committed the greatest sin imaginable for a Cossack - to counter East and West, he went South, allying with the Ottoman empire. Essentially becoming a vassal of the Ottomans, the territory of right-bank Ukraine (modern-day west Ukraine) became a territory on which the Crimean Khanate came to source raw materials for its main industry - slavery.

Meanwhile, Doroshenko rejected all diplomatic attempts from the left-bank Cossacks to unite the Cossack lands. He feared Russian influence, but his critics accused him of caring only for personal power. Ultimately, the cause of unity was Russia was highly popular among the broader layers of the Cossacks, while the elite - like Doroshenko - were much more unwilling to allow any state authority to challenge their rent-seeking operations.

Poroshenko also took a strongly anti-Russian approach to Ukraine’s foreign policy, while nominally allying with the west. One can even draw the parallel that Poroshenko’s beloved cause of expanding the army also involved the involvement of Turkish military industry. Finally, like Doroshenko, Poroshenko became absolutely reviled by the end of his presidency, having done little other than deepen the wretched condition of his citizens.

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Now, I’ll finish with some questions to consider while watching or reading Taras Bulba. My next article, which I’ll put out in the following week or two, will explore some possible answers:

Why was the novel untranslated in Polish until 2001? For what reason is the book considered ‘Polonophobic’?

Why was the 2009 film banned in Ukraine and criticized by Ukrainian nationalists?

How does the story of Taras Bulba fit into Russian patriotic narratives?

Why do Ukrainian nationalists claim that Gogol was a semi-secretly ‘pro-Ukrainian’ author?

Does Gogol favorably portray Cossack society?

Where could Taras Bulba be assumed to have fit into Cossack class stratification? Was he on the Registry?


https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... ment-taras

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CIA-Linked Website Celebrates Murder of Ukrainian Opposition Politician
By Jeremy Kuzmarov - May 26, 2025 2

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[Source: myrotvorets.center]

Website accused Andriy Portnov of being a traitor

On May 22, Andriy Portnov, 51, was assassinated in Madrid, just after dropping off his children at the American School.

A lawyer by training, Portnov was a leading opposition figure in Ukraine who was forced to flee the country after the February 2014 U.S.-backed Maidan coup.

A top aide to President Viktor Yanukovych, who was overthrown in the Maidan coup because of his pro-Russian leanings, Portnov was accused of being the architect of a set of measures meant to curb street violence that the Maidan Square rioters claimed was a major attack on democracy.[1]

After returning in 2019 to support Volodymyr Zelensky’s election, Portnov left Ukraine again in 2022 after he was accused of being “aligned with pro-Russian media outlets” that had been shut down by Zelensky, and of making disparaging remarks about the Maidan coup.

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Andriy Portnov, right, with Viktor Yanukovych, left. [Source: rferl.org]

After his death, the Myrotvorets website published a photo purportedly of Portnov’s body, with a big red diagonal banner across it reading “Liquidated”—its trademark terror tactic.

Founded in 2014, Myrotvorets is run by Ukraine’s top intelligence agency (SBU) and lists its headquarters as being in Langley, Virginia.

Functioning jointly with the Ukrainian government’s Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD), which is financed by the British government and, until recently, the U.S. State Department, Myrotvorets features gruesome photos of dead Russians along with inflammatory statements of Ukrainian officials and American generals calling for the killing of Russians.

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Photo of dead Russians featured on the Myrotvorets website. [Source: myrotvorets.center]

Myrotvorets additionally publishes a hit list of alleged national traitors who are crossed off with bullseyes when they are killed.

These “traitors” are usually “pro-Russian” journalists and bloggers, along with Russian military officers and politicians like Portnov who opposed the 2014 Maidan coup and are critics of the Zelensky government.

Americans who are critical of U.S. policy in Ukraine have also been placed on the hit list.

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Myrotvorets staff members. [Source: en.wikipedia.org]

Local reports emphasized that Portnov was shot in the back and head by a gunman who then fled into a wooded area in a nearby public park. The gunman was assisted by an accomplice allegedly on a motorbike.

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Police officers cordon off the area outside the American School of Madrid shortly after the former senior aide to ex-Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych was shot. [Source: edition.cnn.com]

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Oleksiy Arestovych [Source: en.wikipedia.org]

Oleksiy Arestovych, a former adviser to President Zelensky, asserted that the murder of Portnov was “99% likely Zelensky preparing for elections. Threats of murder from Telegram channels associated in Ukraine with the Office of the President, immediately directed at me and Anatoliy Shariy, and a possible threat to Oleksiy Goncharenko, reveal the intent: to deprive the so-called ‘OPZZh’ (The Opposition Platform-For Life) electorate of potential ‘leaders’….The political terror unleashed by Zelensky’s regime has turned into blatant international terrorism; a Ukrainian citizen was killed on the territory of a NATO and EU country.”

U.S. and UK Media Bias
Arestovych’s assessment was ignored in U.S. media accounts, which failed to even raise the possibility that the Ukrainian intelligence services were behind Portnov’s killing.

A CNN article by Al Goodman, Lauren Kent and Jack Guy, characteristically, made it seem that Portnov was the victim of a random crime. The article emphasized that he had been sanctioned by the U.S. government, beginning in 2021, for corruption and bribery under the Magnitsky Act, making him seem like a bad guy.[2]

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Al Goodman [Source: cnnespanol.com]

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Lauren Kent [Source: cnn.com]
CNN’s coverage was similar to the The Kyiv Independent, which depicted Portnov’s assassination as retribution for Portnov’s alleged bad acts.[3]

Radio Free Europe, a CIA front, quoted from an SBU agent who suggested that Portnov was killed because of his allegedly corrupt business dealings.

The BBC reported that, “although Ukraine’s intelligence services have been linked to several killings in Russia and occupied areas of Ukraine, a fatal attack in Spain in February last year was linked to Russian hitmen.”

Shifting focus away from Ukraine and onto Russia in a not so subtle way, this latter statement fits well with the “red peril” propaganda driving the new Cold War.[4]

The Guardian followed the same approach, suggesting that Portnov’s murder was part of a series of violent acts in Spain primarily linked to Russia.

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Jakub Krupa [Source: theguardian.com]

An article by Jakub Krupa highlighted the case of a Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine who was killed in Spain under murky circumstances, and said that the culprit in a rash of bombings targeting Spanish government officials showed sympathy for Russia in social media posts.

Krupa failed at the same time to discuss cases where the Ukrainian intelligence services took credit for murdering dissidents and carrying out terrorist acts like planting bombs in cafés.[5]

RT’s Journalistic Integrity Is Much Higher
The coverage of Portnov’s death by Russia Today (RT) was far better than that of Western outlets.

A May 21 article quoted Rodion Miroshnik, Russia’s ambassador-at-large overseeing a special mission on Ukrainian war crimes, who stated that the circumstances of Portnov’s murder “suggested it may have been an extrajudicial assassination,” as Portnov “may have had access to information that could threaten figures in Zelensky’s administration.”

This assessment was given added weight by several other sources, which reported that Portnov was planning to release a large investigation into Zelensky’s corruption.

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Rodion Miroshnik [Source: x.com]

The RT article specified that Portnov had “been listed since at least 2015 by Myrotvorets, a controversial semi-official public database that catalogs individuals deemed enemies of Ukraine. Several people listed by the site have been murdered over its decade of operation.”

The article continued: “Ukrainian intelligence services have previously claimed or implied involvement in a number of targeted killings of individuals labeled as enemies by Kiev. Some of those assassinations have occurred outside Ukraine, including the December 2023 shooting of former Ukrainian lawmaker Ilya Kiva near Moscow.”[6]

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Ilya Kiva [Source: x.com]

The above statements are factual, presenting important information omitted from U.S. and British media accounts, which apparently lack journalistic integrity.

Alleged Treachery of Agent Kazbek

Besides the gruesome death photos, the Myrotvorets website features a nine-part series on Portnov, whom it calls “Agent Kazbek,” that accuses him of being a Kremlin agent and traitor to the Ukrainian motherland.

The basis for these charges are:

Portnov controlled all judicial appointments under President Viktor Yanukovych whom Myrotvorets called a “traitor”;
Working through loyal agents[7] inside Ukraine after he fled to Moscow following the 2014 Maidan coup, Portnov spread “disinformation” under the guise of anti-corruption newsletters in an attempt to discredit Ukrainian leadership from 2014 to 2019;
He created a human rights organization with Kremlin money that sought to expose the crimes of the post-Maidan government, including its involvement in the Odessa Trade Union Building massacre;
He ensured that only Russian television and radio stations could operate in Donetsk;
He worked to destabilize Ukraine’s agro-industrial complex, the lifeblood of Ukraine’s economy, according to alleged secret communications with the Russians that Myrotvorets uncovered;
He worked to sabotage efforts to build up Ukraine’s military capabilities following the Maidan coup; and
He worked to dismember Ukraine by supporting Russian efforts to set up “people’s republics” loyal to Russia in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson and other eastern Ukrainian cities.[8]
Supposedly, Portnov was given a luxurious apartment in Kharkiv for passing secret information to Russian “handlers”[9] that was used to benefit Russian political and Special Forces operations in Ukraine.

The information that he obtained from a high-level mole in the Ukrainian government, according to Myrotvorets, included reports on bills before the Ukrainian Parliament that would impact Russia and plans for administering Luhansk and Donetsk, which were seeking greater autonomy.

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[Source: myrotvorets.center]

Myrotvorets claimed that “Portnov’s deliberate subversive activities against Ukraine in favor of the Kremlin during the war with Russia” caused “irreparable damage” to Ukraine.

Portnov was such a key figure, the website claims, because he allegedly controlled judges, prosecutors, lawyers and so-called “people’s deputies” who helped enable the Kremlin’s continued penetration of state institutions in Ukraine and tipped off the Kremlin about security issues and operations of the Ukrainian security services.

Portnov Wins His Days in Court
The SBU and its CIA and British MI6 patrons are specialists in advancing disinformation, so the accusations directed against Portnov should be viewed with suspicion—even more so since he was vindicated on several occasions in court.

The BBC reported that the SBU had opened a case against Portnov for suspected treason over Russia’s annexation of Crimea but that the case was dropped when it concluded no offense had been committed. Portnov also won a legal case against the European Union after it tried to impose sanctions on him.

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[Source: myrotvorets.center]

Myrotvorets’ attacks on Portnov assume that Russia is an illegal aggressor in eastern Ukraine and that Ukrainian government policy is just, which is simply not the case.

One of Many Death-Squad Victims
CNN acknowledged the existence of a widespread Ukrainian government assassination campaign when it reported that Portnov was “not the only ally of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych who was killed after he was ousted from power.”

The CNN article referenced a 2015 CNN report on two high profile shooting deaths in the Ukrainian capital—one of a former member of parliament with ties to Yanukovych and the other of a Ukrainian journalist “known for his pro-Russian views.”

Goodman, Kent and Guy wrote that, “at the time, those killings renewed speculation about a conspiracy to kill people close to Yanukovych, after three former members of parliament from his political party died by suspected suicide, found dead in their homes.”

The passive voice and use of the term speculation is highly revealing as is the CNN journalists’ unwillingness to implicate Ukraine’s neo-Nazi gangs in the killings that they described.

Their reporting generally helps sanitize the violent nature of the Maidan coup and obscures the existence of a methodical assassination program by the Ukrainian government modeled after the Phoenix Program in Vietnam that makes use of CIA/SBU-generated blacklists.[10]

(Notes at link.)

https://covertactionmagazine.com/2025/0 ... olitician/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu May 29, 2025 6:37 pm

Brief Frontline Report – May 28, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
May 28, 2025

Sumy Direction

From the Russian Ministry of Defense report: Units of the "North" military group have liberated the settlement of Konstantinovka in Sumy Oblast through active operations.

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For those who can’t read Russian script, the labels for the lines on the west of the map, east and south of Konstantinovka. Read the translation note at the end of the article for some tips on reading Russian when it is written by hand.

The Russian Armed Forces continue combat operations to establish a buffer zone along the Russian state border.

The village of Konstantinovka (not the one in Donetsk) is located just a few hundred meters from the Russian border. It is a small settlement with 250 residents. Approximately 1.5 km to the west runs a radial highway leading to Khoten (labeled "Hoten" on the map, which is due south along the highway; west of Pyserevka)—a fortified area securing the left flank of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s third defensive line, which stretches east to west, anchored on the Oleshnya River.

2.5 km south of Konstantinovka lies the village of Kondratovka, the administrative center of the Kondratovka rural council in Sumy Oblast. It is a larger settlement with 900 residents. This marks the left flank of the AFU’s second defensive line, covering the Obodi–Kondratovka–Alekseevka–Yablonovka supply route.

The radial highway to Khoten, running from Konstantinovka to Kondratovka, follows the ridge between the Kriha and Sinyak rivers. We anticipate that Russian assault units will continue advancing along this route.

South Donetsk Direction

Russian Ministry of Defense report: As a result of active and decisive operations by units of the "East" military group, the settlement of Zelenoe Pole in the Donetsk People’s Republic has been liberated.

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ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.02.2025=Line of Combat Contact February 1st, 2025. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary. Again, the last part is written in script, see the end of the article.

Zelenoe Pole is a sizable village (approximately 600 residents) located north of the O0510 highway—a major supply route connecting Orekhov and Velikaya Novosyolka. From the village, an ascent begins toward the dominant high ground (Elev. 160.0) of the area.

To the south lies the settlement of Novopol, where the AFU has established a defensive sector, including the highest elevation in the area (Elev. 173.0). This location marks the notional boundary between the Donetsk and Zaporozhye operational sectors.

The liberation of Zelenoe Pole represents a northern envelopment of the enemy’s Novopol defensive area and an advance toward the Temirovka defensive sector. The administrative center of the Temirovka rural council (over 600 residents) in Zaporozhye Oblast—secures the left flank of the enemy’s layered defense, the focal point of which in this sector is the Pavlovka –Uspenovka defensive hub. This hub is situated in low-lying terrain (Elev. 102.0) with complex topography. The Venchur River, its tributary the Solyonaya River, and several wide ravines (Skotovataya, Grushevataya, Grushevaya) form natural obstacles, further reinforced by fortifications and fire systems.

Yesterday, we observed activity on our left flank in the Zaporozhye sector near Orekhov. Today, a significant result has been achieved on the right flank. We will monitor further developments, as the foothold in Zelenoe Pole grants the Russian Armed Forces advantages in multiple directions:

a) It threatens the enemy’s right flank on the southern sector of the Donetsk axis if Russian forces advance toward Zelenoe Pole–Kamyshevakha.

b) Offensive operations along the O0510 supply route, with support from neighboring units advancing from Novodarovka, will endanger two AFU defensive sectors: Novopol (south of the highway) and Temirovka (north of the highway). Moreover, the segment of the highway between Zelenoe Pole and Novoivanovka runs along a the ridge of a watershed, which, if successfully exploited, will provide our fire support units with a significant advantage.

The unfolding situation suggests the need for a new operational map covering the Gulyaipole –Velikaya Novosyolka sector. Without a doubt, a new combat zone is heating up.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ay-28-2025

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Desperation Time in Ukraine End-Game
by Gordonhahn
May 29, 2025

Europe in the form of the power triangle of Germany, France, and the UK have abandoned all caution and appeared to have decided to take a step they already twice had balked at because of a lack of U.S. support: allowing Kiev to hit targets deep inside Russia with longer-range missile systems that can hit Moscow. New German Chancellor Freiderick Merz recently claimed then backed off the claim that the US and the three leading European governments had agreed to lift the restriction against such attacks. Merz’s claim may have prompted US President Donald Trump to include in one of his recent ‘Truth Social’ tirades that he ‘has protected Russia from some very bad things.’ Merz also rolled backed his claim that Berlin is sending the requisite German ‘Taurus’ missile systems to Kiev and instead proposed after a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy in Berlin that Germany would finance the production of Ukrainian rockets with a capability to hit targets as far away as 2,500 kilometers—that is, deep inside Russia. Then today, Merz reiterated that sending Tauruses to Kiev is an option. Even the former Joseph Biden administration had the sense to veto Europe’s and American neocons’ ‘hit Russia deep’ policy, which Washington is able to do, because Europe’s missiles with the needed range cannot be launched without the use of US software and technical support.

What has prompted Merz’s demarche and flailing about? There are at least four reasons, and they are the same ones that explain similar failed demarches and flailing about by French President Immanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer.

First, Merz, a war hawk, sought to raise again the issue and mount pressure on the new U.S. administration of Ukraine dove, Donald Trump, to acquiesce in lifting the restriction should Russo-Ukrainian negotiations break down.

Second is the accelerating collapse of Ukraine’s defense lines across a broad swathe of the battle front and Russia’s mammoth superiority in missiles, artillery, conventional air power, and now drones.

Third is the US President Trump’s peace mission, which, though failing, has rendered Ukraine in a weaker position militarily and politically. The latter two reasons can combine forcing Volodomyr Zelenskiy’s or a moderate successor to essentially capitulate to Moscow’s topught demands, marking a major defeat for the NATO and the EU.

Fourth, any peace agreement achieved in a process initiated by Trump additionally likely would bolster national Trumpism’s hand in Europe, threatening its remaining woke, neo-liberal, globalist governments, most importantly those ruling over the leading EU troika of Germany, the UK, and France. In sum, for the woke, globalist Western elite, this is desperation time. Let’s look at these in some detail.

The accelerating collapse of Ukraine’s defense lines is approaching a critical mass at which point there will be a cascading collapse and mass, uncontrolled retreat of Ukrainian forces to the Dneiper River and Ukraine’s second city of Kharkiv (Kharkov). There they, respectively, will fight with their backs against the water and can be surrounded and forced to retreat further to the Dneiper as well. Russian forces have been accelerating their advance into Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts and recently entered the south-central region of Dnipro (Dnepropetrovsk) Oblast’. These are regions that Russia has not declared to be its sovereign territory.

In the annexed but not fully seized oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhia, and Kherson gains are also mounting. Luhansk is some 98 percent under Russian control. In Donetsk, Russian forces have made a major breakthrough between the key cities of Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka splitting Ukraine’s Donetsk defense lines, making the full occupation of Donetsk almost a certainty by autumn. The Ukrainian top command sought to slow this breakthrough by transferring seven major units from the Sumy and Kharkiv fronts. This will not stop the Russian advance in the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka direction, but it will ease Russian advances in the north. After this, there is no strong defense to slow down Russian forces march to the Dneiper along this central Ukrainian east-west direction.

Accelerating progress in the less-controlled southern regions of Zaporozhia and Kherson has also begun, with Russian forces moving on Gulyai Pole and Malaya Tokmachka, respectively. All the above was occurring before Russia launched its summer offensive last week along the entire front. Thus, Russia is forcing Ukraine to strtetch out its resources, perhaps fatally so.

Importantly, in any peace talks, unless they are held this year, Kiev will be lucky if it can convince Moscow to trade areas taken in Dnipro, Sumy, and perhaps other unannexed regions for any areas in annexed regions Russian forces have yet to take.

Russia’s mammoth superiority in missiles, artillery, conventional air power (rarely used), and now drones. Russia unveiled its revolutionary non-nuclear Oreshnik missile in a powerful attack on Kiev last year. Putin ended the year announcing Oreshnik would go into mass production “soon” (https://tass.com/defense/1888111). It seems likely that it already is in mass production and tens of missiles could be produced by autumn. Iskander, Hummingbird (Kalibra), and other Russian missile systems and the production thereof far outperform Western missiles and production, which is almost wholly dependent on the mostly demilitarized and deindustrialized West.

A similarly grave Werstern/Ukrainian deficit is evident with air defense missiles. Ukraine is very short of air defense missiles, especially the tense situation with U.S. Patriot and NASAMs and French SAMP/T and Crotale systems. According to air defense officers, there is an acute shortage of missiles for NASAMS and Patriot systems in the country (https://t.me/rezident_ua/26250). According to one Ukrainian commander, Kiev “has not received a single missile for the French-Italian SAMP/T complex for a year and a half,” and mmmunition for the Crotale is fully depleted (https://www.lemonde.fr/international/ar ... _3210.html). Thus, in 2024 Ukraine was able to intercept up to 90% of Shahed drones, now this figure has fallen sharply, to 30% in some areas of Ukrane (https://t.me/rezident_ua/26250).

The withdrawal of US support for the war and Europe’s lack of industrial capacity has crippled Ukraine in this regard. NATO rejected Ukraine’s recent request for additional missiles for such Ukraine’s Western-supplied air defense systems, since the West has spent some 40% of NATO’s strategic reserve in the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War (https://t.me/rezident_ua/26246). Russian artillery production outstrips Western production by a factor of five or so as the use of artillery on the front by Russia outstrips that of Ukraine by a factor of six to one.

Despite propaganda pieces touting a mythical Ukrainian superiority in drone production and warfighting, the truth is that it is Russia that enjoys these superiorities. Thus, Ukrainian intelligence concludes that Russian drone production will soon reach 500 per day within the next few months (https://t.me/rezident_ua/26250). Even the pro-Ukrainian, pro-NATO outlet, The Economist, notes that it is Russia not Ukraine that soon will be attacking with 1,000 Shahed drones alone nightly (https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-ru ... 16881.html).

The financing of the army has now reached a deficit of 400-900 billion Ukrainian hryvnia ($20 billion), meaning the Ukrainian army is highly dependent not just on Western supplies but also Western financing (https://t.me/rezident_ua/26250).

All this compounds Ukraine’s manpower shortage, which is deepening, with the failure of the 18-24 Program that provided increased remuneration for service but which only attracted some 500 volunteers in a period of two months (March-April 2025). Ukraine’s military has nearly 600,000 personnel, according to estimates from Zelensky, but most are in support roles away not in combat (www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraines-batte ... e-6d695eba). If we take 360,000 as the figure for those engaged in combat and 30,000 casualties per month, then the equivalent of today’s entire Ukrainian fighting force will be dead or severely wounded by February 2026. If we assume, 15,000 recruits (volunteer and coerced) per month (half of Russia’s rate, unlikely for Ukraine to acheive), then Ukraine’s remaining army is 150,000, but is gone in five months. Five months recruits equals 75,000, which will be attritted in 2.5 months, during which another 37,500 recruits can be acquired if all else remains equal, but that army is gone in about a month. Thus, by this cride calculation, there are no more Ukrainian fighting forces as of autumn 2026, all else remaining equal. How much earlier the army will break its ranks reach ‘net zero’ is anyone’s guess.

Moreover, Russian recruits are younger, better trained, better armed, and Russian soldiers are rotated away from the front for 30-day leaves, while Ukraine has been unable to adopt a law that would make rotation obligatory, and few ever receive leave outside of going AWOL. This leaves Ukraine’s middle-aged, little trained, and poorly armed army in combat on a permanent basis, destroying morale.

This dark picture or something very similar to it is certainly known to those working in the bowels of the state apparati in Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, Brussels, and Kiev.

In politics, desperation is masked by extreme denial, especially in Kiev, where Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy’s penchant for simulacra over reality is evident and legend even among his own team. Nevertheless, there is some awareness, indeed panic over the fact that Trump’s withdrawal of full US support has weakened the positions of Kiev and Europe politically. US pressure on Kiev, forcing it to negotiate is undermining not just the army’s morale but also the public’s morale – already dangerously low – weakening Zelenskiy’s administration at home and abroad. At home, Zelenskiy’s refusal to negotiate with Moscow seriously is consternating the many Ukrainians predisposed to ending the war through a peace agreement with Moscow, even one that includes giving up Ukrainian territory. In addition, Ukraine’s powerful neofascists, now with many weapons in hand, are increasingly voicing their opposition to talks and threatening Zelenskiy.

Abroad, those few European and numerous non-European states that have been opposed to Europe’s rejection of Trump’s peace efforts and endeavors to undermine them are emboldened in this policy, further isolating Kiev and stressing its lone supporter, Europe and its pro-war governments. Pro-Ukrainian European governments and states have become less viable politically, economically, and financially. This, in turn, is marching such European governments inexorably towards an even less rational Ukraine policy—one that risks a broader, more overt European or Russo-Western war by, among other things, allowing Kiev to hit deep inside Russia with European-controlled weapons, which Freidrick Merz and the leaders of the other leading European states are pressuring Washington to back.

For Europe, it must be clear that soon the disparity between European/Ukrainian and Russian power will such that it will either force Kiev’s army, regime and perhaps state to collapse or dictate to Zelenskiy or a replacement that Kiev must sit at the negotiating table and accept unfavorable terms. Lacking the courage or social political, economic, financial, industrial, and technological whertewithall to enter the war directly with boots on the ground. Europe seeks parity and sekf-respect on the cheap. Bombing Russia from afar and having Ukraine pay the price has been a ‘good deal’ for many in the West.

The problem is that if Europeans do help Ukraine attack Russia in depth and succeed in striking Moscow or achieve some other blow, Europe will become a target in Putin’s ‘special military operation’ (SMO), as Putin implicitly warned last fall when the West wisely balked at taking such a dangerous step. Indeed, in such an event, Putin is likely to upgrade the SMO to war status, with the State Duma adopting a declaration of war at his behest. The SMO will be no more, and actual ‘full-scale invasion’ of, and all-out war against Ukraine will ensue. Ukraine will pay an even more steep price for Europe’s hubris, but also Europe will be hit. Will Trump enter the U.S. into the frey more directly, and in what form? Desperation’s frequent handmaiden is dangerous, fateful decision-making.

https://gordonhahn.com/2025/05/29/despe ... -end-game/

Wtf does 'woke' have to do with this? Both sides of the 'culture wars' are fools.

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Why Merz’ comments show he is two steps down the escalation ladder from Putin

Ian Proud

May 29, 2025

Perhaps Merz might consider a negotiated end to the conflict, rather than more empty sabre-rattling that he cannot deliver upon.

Russia has established escalation dominance in Ukraine in November 2024 by raising the bar on the military capabilities that it is willing to use. Merz’s comments on western cruise missile use haven’t changed that calculus and, instead, have illustrated German weakness in Russia’s eyes.

For some time now, western media outlets have pushed the argument hard that Zelensky should be free to use longer-range weapons deep inside Russia. In his bid to offer a tougher line on Ukraine’s war effort during his honeymoon period in office and ahead of Zelensky’s visit to Berlin today, Friedrich Merz announced a lifting of restrictions on the use of western missiles within the territory of Russia. In doing so, he showed a fundamental misunderstanding of Russian strategy.

I have seen at critical points over the past decade that Russia seeks escalation dominance, a Cold War concept holding that a state can best contain conflicts and avoid escalation if it is dominant at each successive rung up the “ladder of escalation,” all the way to the nuclear rung.

Since the onset of the Ukraine crisis in 2014, Russia has sought to dominate each step up the escalation ladder. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 were major escalations that NATO didn’t meet head-on. This strategy is also seen in the diplomatic sphere, for example, Russia escalated a dispute with the U.S. in 2017 when it kicked 755 American diplomatic staff out of Russia. When Moscow over-escalates, it makes a gamble that its adversary will not be willing to step another rung higher on the escalation ladder.

There is a hard-wired view in Moscow that Russia will always overmatch a divided and morally weak Western alliance when push comes to shove. Russia has something that the West does not have — the sovereign power and the political will to act unilaterally. Putin had been subject to criticism from hardliners in Russia that he hasn’t responded to the slow ratcheting up of military support to Ukraine from the West.

What was surprising about Merz’s comments were their blindness to recent events. On Nov. 21, 2024, Vladimir Putin presented a huge escalation challenge to the West: are you ready for Russia to strike NATO facilities anywhere in Europe with hypersonic munitions that you don’t possess?

At that time, much as now in Berlin, bombastic British ex-military saber rattlers had been at the forefront of calls that such weapon systems as Scalp, Storm Shadow, U.S. ATACMS missiles could make on the battlefield in Ukraine.

On Nov. 19, the first salvo of ATACMS was lobbed at a military facility in Bryansk — outside the area in which Ukrainian forces were battling in Kursk. The following day, British Storm Shadow missiles were fired into Kursk, with the jubilant approval of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, no less. These strikes elicited widespread attaboy jingoism from the Western media, with hardly a word of caution.

On Nov. 21, Russia over-escalated. Specifically, they deployed a more powerful and destructive hypersonic Oreshnik missile at a well-fortified Ukrainian weapons facility in Dnipropetrovsk. This is the first time an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile has been used in combat. The claimed range of Oreshnik is 16 times greater than ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles. Its deployment put any NATO targets within Europe in the scope of a conventional strike.

This represented a major escalation in destructive capabilities. Russia had been trying unsuccessfully to destroy the Yuzhmash weapons facility since 2022 using the battlefield weapons at its disposal. Built during the Soviet era, Yuzhmash has workshops buried deep underground to protect them from attack. Among other purposes, the facility is thought to be where Rheinmetall had set up a plant to repair German Leopard tanks. It was also used in missile and long-range drone production. The Oreshnik strike levelled it.

The destruction of valuable Western repair facilities at Yuzhmash will have satisfied Kremlin hawks that Oreshnik has taken Russia two steps up the escalation ladder. Putin also sent a clear message to military planners from the U.S. and UK who supported the deployment of the ATACMS, that a more specifically NATO target may be next.

Carefully described by Putin at the time as a “test” the Oreshnik is now a deployed capability far beyond those that Western powers have allowed Ukraine to use, namely ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles. And also beyond the capabilities that Zelensky had requested — namely Tomahawk cruise missiles — that the U.S. has so far refused to sanction. Putin has left the door open for further “tests” of the Oreshnik.

Following Merz’s surprise announcement, speculation quickly mounted that Germany would finally relent on allowing Ukraine to use German Taurus cruise missiles. Even if supplied, Taurus offers nothing Ukraine doesn’t already have, as its range is slightly lower than the British Storm Shadow and its payload only slightly higher. The U.S. ATACMS is more destructive capability.

So, all that Merz did by grand-standing was to put Germany and Ukraine in a position where a more devastating weapon i.e. Oreshnik – may be used against strategic or battlefield targets that would overmatch the theoretical use of Taurus missiles. Taurus is therefore a battle-losing capability. To make matters worse, the new German Chancellor has already backtracked on supplying Taurus, following blowback from members of his coalition government.

Following the first deployment of ATACMS and Storm Shadow at targets in Bryansk and Kursk, western powers deescalated and placed greater restrictions on their tactical use. This made both Joe Biden and Keir Starmer look weak in President Putin’s eyes. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the pro-ATACMS advocates largely fell silent, at least for a little while. Ukraine has gone on to lose further territory in the Donbass since that time.

So, the question for Merz when he meets Zelensky today is, what escalation card is he empowered to play next to overmatch a future Oreshnik strike at a target in Germany? If he hasn’t thought that through, and I suspect that he has not, reconsider his rhetoric, or risk looking weak and feckless, as Biden and Starmer did in November of last year.

Following the Oreshnik deployment, Prime Minister Starmer conceded in his December Manion House speech that Britain needed to help Ukraine get into the strongest position to secure a negotiated settlement to the war. That sill hasn’t happened. Perhaps Merz might consider a negotiated end to the conflict, rather than more empty sabre-rattling that he cannot deliver upon.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... rom-putin/

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Under the negotiating table
May 27, 3:05 PM

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European leaders can only sit under the negotiating table on Ukraine (c) Russian Foreign Ministry

1. The US reported that Ukraine had provided them with a list of its conditions. It is not hard to imagine that they do not want to give anything up there.

2. The US is expecting similar conditions from Russia, which are unlikely to diverge from Russia's position, which in the end sounds like "give up 4 regions completely, otherwise next time you will have to give up even more."

3. The negotiations will most likely be resumed in Turkey. In the current reality, this is a convenient format for Russia (which Putin discussed with Fidan again today) and extremely inconvenient for Ukraine and completely unacceptable for Europe.

4. The Vatican option was in the interests of Ukraine and Europe, so it is not surprising that Russia did not even seriously consider it. The Vatican is an interested player and certainly not neutral.

5. Europe's threats to introduce new sanctions or to supply Tauruses to Russia do not frighten Russia at all and are seen as hysteria by those who are not allowed to the negotiating table, especially since all the red lines the EU drew in May turned out to be brown.

6. The Trump administration continues to take an ambivalent position, issuing threats without implementation, in the hope that Russia will cave in. These hopes are also futile. Russia will be satisfied with the option where the US bends its satellites in Europe and Ukraine, and if the US slams the door and reduces its participation.

7. The summer campaign is already in fact underway and the enemy expects that Russia is already quite ready to begin a series of offensive operations with serious operational goals, which it expects to achieve during the summer campaign. It is obvious that the territory of the DPR occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces will significantly decrease in size over the summer.

8. The attacks on Ukraine will continue. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed once again today that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can spam drones in the direction of Moscow as much as they want, but the return will be much harsher.

9. The Russian Foreign Ministry also confirmed today that negotiations on the exchange with the Americans are progressing successfully. A 9-for-9 exchange is expected to take place soon. They will be exchanged either in Turkey or in the UAE/Saudi Arabia. Here, the negotiations are being held behind closed doors and the lists of those who will be exchanged will most likely be made public after the exchange. Considering all the previous exchanges, we can be sure that our negotiators will release whoever they need to.

10. In general, the negotiations will proceed as usual, and the war will proceed as usual. There will be no Minsk mess.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9863255.html

Google Translator

*******

Mainstream catches up with Alternative Media on the dire situation facing Ukraine

Occasionally over the past six months I have directed attention to articles in the very mainstream Financial Times dealing with the Russian economy that described fairly accurately the generalized rising prosperity in the country today notwithstanding the expenses of the war effort and an unprecedented volume of Western sanctions intended to degrade that economy. As I remarked, such reportage runs directly counter to the Russia-bashing line that the FT editors tend to impose on all coverage of Russia.

This weekend the level of truthfulness in FT reporting on the dire military, financial, economic and other circumstances of Ukraine reached a level on a par with what Alternative Media, including this newsletter have been saying for a couple of years.

See the report of Christopher Miller based in Kiev, ‘Expect no miracle’: Ukraine braces for Russia’s summer offensive.

Miller has interviewed Ukrainian soldiers, who say openly how effective are Russia’s latest tactics of sending in infantry on motorcycles, even on electric scooters to catch the Ukrainian defenders of hamlets and settlements by surprise and seize territory. This, by the way, is precisely what Russian state television news is showing day by day.

But that is not all. Miller tells us: “Aiding the infantry is Russia’s heavy and high-tech weapons blasting its way through, with glide bombs, missiles and drones – including new models connected via fibre-optic cables that make them immune to electronic jamming. Defenders have been forced to pull back from towns including Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, where the cost of holding ground proved too high.” All of this is very true, and it is all being said on Russian television.

He may based in Kiev, but it seems to me that Miller has his television properly tuned to where real as opposed to fake news is coming from.

Miller also speaks about the manpower shortages that leave the Ukrainian command with a losing hand:

“At a Kremlin meeting on economic development this month, Putin claimed that up to 60,000 Russians ‘volunteer’ to join the army each month – double the roughly 30,000 Ukrainians he said were being conscripted.”

Though Miller does not say it, he is taking those facts straight from Russian state news.

Finally, to the same point, in this article Miller alludes to a very damaging assessment of the overall Ukrainian situation delivered to an audience in London last week by Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian ambassador to the United Kingdom, former four star general and commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces (to February 2024). This speech was the source of the title that the FT assigned to his article: not to expect ‘some kind of miracle…that will bring peace to Ukraine.’ Specifically, Zaluzhny said: “With an enormous shortage of human resources and the catastrophic economic situation we’re facing”…etc, etc.

Once again, Miller was right in line with what Russian state television was reporting this past weekend. Director of Russian television news Dimitry Kiselyov called attention to the Zaluzhny speech in London as an indication that the political elites of the Ukraine are now challenging the narrative coming from Team Zelensky, indicating that the regime is cracking.

So far, so good. I close my examination of this FT article by noting that in one important respect it is more truthful about the situation on the battlefield than what you will hear or read in the Alternative Media videos of some of my peers, who are still predicting Ukrainian collapse and capitulation next week. After explaining how the Russians are outgunning, out manning the Ukrainians, he cites a Vienna-based military analyst, Franz-Stefan Gady: “We can expect gradual Russian advances but no imminent collapses, no collapse of the front line.” That corresponds to the generally cautious assessments you will hear on Russian state television.

All of the foregoing bears out my repeated justification for watching Russian state television news and relaying to the Community what they are saying. Now even the FT has become a follower.

*****

Everything in moderation. I do not want to suggest that all of Western mainstream has become transparent and truthful about the war all of the time. Western coverage of the Russian drone and missile attacks on Kiev and other Ukrainian cities the past few days is printing text written in Kiev, without any sideways glance at the Russian accounts. We hear and read that Russia has been striking apartment buildings and other civilian targets, that it is clearly out to destroy the chances for continuing peace talks, blah blah and blah blah. This is the propaganda line that Trump’s domestic and European opponents have been disseminating. To counter it, Trump issued his now very widely cited criticism of Putin as having gone ‘crazy, though to the disappointment of Neocons, Trump has not indicated any intention of sanctioning the Russians over this. Indeed, mainstream media rightly understand that Trump’s feet are still pointed in the direction of withdrawing the United States from the war.

Russian state television has been showing videos of precisely what they were attacking these past two days – factories producing drones, an airport from which a Ukrainian F-16 took off and fired Storm Shadow missiles at Russia, a container ship in the port of Odessa which was carrying war materiel. They also explained that these were ‘revenge attacks’ for the past week of massive Ukrainian drone attacks inside the Russian Federation and particularly concentrated on Moscow.

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2025/05/27/ ... g-ukraine/

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Analyzing Zelensky’s Fearmongering About Fall’s Next Russian-Belarusian Drills
Andrew Korybko
May 28, 2025

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He likely thought this might lead to Western troops deploying to Western Ukraine as a “deterrent”.

Zelensky fearmongered about the following scenario during a speech at late April’s 10th “Three Seas Initiative” Summit: “Look at Belarus – Russia is preparing something there this fall, using military drills as cover. That’s usually how they start a new attack. But where will it go? I don’t know. Ukraine? Lithuania? Poland? God forbid! But we all need to be ready.” He was referring to fall’s next Russian-Belarusian drills, codenamed Zapad 2025, that’ll begin in Belarus in mid-September.

“Five Arguments Debunking Speculation About A Russian Invasion Of The Suwalki Corridor” were shared in the preceding hyperlinked analysis last month and should be read in connection with what Zelensky just suggested. Simply put, Russia has no reason to risk World War III, but the possibility of another offensive against Kiev from Belarus can’t be ruled out in principle. This could hypothetically complement the potential (North Korean-backed?) expansion of Russia’s ground campaign into other regions.

Nevertheless, it still remains unlikely due to Ukraine’s fortification of this frontier over what would by then have been the past 3,5 years since the start of Russia’s special operation, which included a Russian offensive against Kiev from Belarus. Not only is the element of surprise therefore gone unlike last time, but Russia and Belarus would be up against the whopping 120,000 Ukrainian troops that Lukashenko warned last summer are deployed along the border when justifying his own build-up back then.

What’s much more probable is that Zapad 2025 will just be an ordinary military exercise without any Russian forces crossing the Belarusian border into neighboring countries, especially NATO members, but with the new addition of Oreshnik and tactical nuclear drills. The purpose would be to deter a NATO and/or Ukrainian invasion of Belarus, which remains a tempting target for both, one that might become even more attractive to them if Western forces deploy to Western Ukraine without sparking a wider war.

In fact, it might be for the purpose of moving the needle in the direction of such a deployment that Zelensky fearmongered about another Russian offensive against Ukraine from Belarus, which he might have thought could convince policymakers to finally agree to this on the basis of “deterring Putin”. A related possibility is that he expected to manipulate them into legally guaranteeing the deployment of troops in that event via amendments to the security guarantees that they gave Ukraine last year.

The reason why there haven’t yet been any developments on this front is because Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth declared in mid-February that the US won’t extend Article 5 guarantees to NATO countries’ troops in Ukraine. So long as this policy remains in force, and it’s not expected to change even if Trump blames Putin for the possible collapse of their peace talks, no amount of fearmongering from Zelensky about a Russian attack against NATO members or Ukraine during fall’s Zapad 2025 will matter.

Therefore, the most that his unrealistic scenario forecast might result in is Poland and Lithuania exploiting his words to further justify their respective East Shield and Baltic Defence Line border projects, which are already generally popular among their populations anyhow so the positive impact will be nil. The bottom line is that Russia is unlikely to use Belarus as a launch pad for any cross-border military action during their upcoming drills so observers shouldn’t take his faux warning seriously.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/analyzin ... rmongering
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri May 30, 2025 11:59 am

Diplomatic dramas: struggle to impose the message
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 05/30/2025

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“In Russia, diplomacy is simply a tool of special operations, and none of the Kremlin's current statements or actions are aimed at organizing genuine negotiations with Ukraine. The Russians are trying to play the role of moderators, setting the date, place, and participants for any talks,” Mikhail Podolyak wrote yesterday, forgetting that the same accusations he makes against Russia could easily be applied to Ukraine as well. His message is not unique; it is simply the most transparent of those that the Ukrainian side is sending in a coordinated manner in response to Russia's confirmation that the memorandum it promised to draft outlining its negotiating positions is ready and the Kremlin is willing to discuss it at the upcoming meeting in Istanbul.

The reactions, which took only a few minutes to arrive, are developing as one would expect, considering how this first attempt to reopen the diplomatic process interrupted in 2022 began. It was Russia that, with great effect and skill, convened the first Istanbul meeting, thus raising the stakes and, above all, completely nullifying the ultimatum that four European countries and Ukraine had raised hours earlier. In addition to taking a step toward a dialogue process on its terms and not on Ukraine's, with Vladimir Putin's announcement, Russia managed to expose the inability of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Poland to set conditions—a secondary, though important, objective in the regional power game also being waged around the war in Ukraine. Zelensky and his European partners' response to the Russian invitation, to which Ukraine could not afford to refuse in the face of Donald Trump's joy at the start of direct negotiations, was to arrange for the forum for discussion not to be the room where the delegations were to meet, but rather the international press.

Russia's attempt to maintain control is precisely intended to prevent diplomacy from becoming the spectacle that Ukraine's allies sought to impose by demanding that Vladimir Putin attend the meeting, thus reversing the meaning and, above all, the outcome of the first direct face-to-face contact between kyiv and Moscow in almost three years. With a pre-prepared script, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine unanimously claimed that the meeting's conclusion had been confirmation that Russia does not want peace. It didn't matter when creating the media narrative that the most optimistic speech about the meeting's progress came from the very person who had led the meeting, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. While his superiors dismissed the contact as useless or even counterproductive, he offered a much more constructive view of the conversation.

The situation is now repeating itself with immediate mutual demands the moment one of the parties takes the required step. After the Istanbul meeting, Russia had declared that it was preparing to prepare a memorandum detailing its demands and steps toward peace, a document that the United States has been demanding for some time and that Donald Trump's envoy for Ukraine called a "term sheet." Although the US envoy with whom it is negotiating fully understood the logic of the memorandum, Andriy Ermak's words yesterday show that Ukraine is willing to twist the facts to the point of ridicule. "Russia continues to lie about the so-called ceasefire memorandum," wrote the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. As Keith Kellogg has repeatedly explained in his media appearances, the logic of the memorandum is to understand Russia's negotiating terms, not a ceasefire roadmap. Ukraine demands a ceasefire, while Russia wants to negotiate an end to the war that takes into account the causes of the conflict. The memorandum was never going to be a ceasefire memorandum .

As announced last week, the Russian document is ready now that the prisoner exchange requirement has been met. Moscow's action is informed by the seven-year experience of the Minsk process, in which even prisoner exchanges, the aspect in which the parties faced fewer difficulties, were subject to manipulation by the Ukrainian side, which even removed individuals from the lists after they had already been transferred to the location where the exchange was to take place.

For Russia, ensuring that the negotiations become a bilateral—or trilateral, if the United States is to be included—aims to ensure that Russia maintains control over information and ensures that the terms of the dialogue do not become a weapon used for days in the world press. This is how, and not in the twisted way Podolyak suggested, we should understand the fact that Russia has so far refused to make its memorandum public or send it to Kyiv prior to the negotiations expected to take place next Monday in Istanbul. The current back-and-forth is not solely due to the terms of the Russian document or its Ukrainian equivalent, but to the ability to dictate what type of negotiation process will take place between the two countries. Russia's objective, according to Podolyak, is "to delay the negotiations, derail them, or devoid them of substantial content," something he is mistaken about. Russia's task now is to prevent the media and diplomatic push for unconditional support demanded by Ukraine's European allies, which would be the first step toward ensuring the prevailing forms and terms on which Kiev hopes to negotiate. Ukraine's task is to impose a ceasefire without negotiation, to ensure that the future resolution is based on the much more favorable European roadmap rather than the American one, and to avoid a final treaty that consolidates a status quo that is detrimental to Ukraine and would entail a painful loss of territory and international acceptance, even if only de facto , that it will not achieve many of its objectives. Kiev and its European allies, aware that negotiations at this time do not benefit a weakened Ukraine, are trying to achieve the lesser evil of preventing the imposition of a document, that of Steve Witkoff, which is favorable to their interests in terms of security, but not economic and territorial.

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“Following the recent Russian attacks that caused civilian casualties, we expect strong statements from our partners, reaffirming the broad international consensus on the need to compel Russia to accept a comprehensive ceasefire as the basis for a meaningful peace process. Ukraine will reiterate its full commitment to advancing peace efforts together with the United States and its European partners. We will also emphasize that as long as Russia stalls the peace process and launches brutal attacks against our country and our people, the pressure on the aggressor will continue to increase,” Andriy Sibiha wrote yesterday in preparation for the UN Security Council meeting. He overlooked the fact that the escalation of Russian attacks followed a similar process by Ukrainians on Russian territory. In line with his Foreign Minister's speech, Volodymyr Zelensky demanded not only his allies but also other countries take Ukraine's side.

The Ukrainian president, who admitted that it will be "difficult" to achieve "justice in the short term" (justice, like peace, is one of the terms kyiv has used in the last year as a euphemism for victory and the recovery of territorial integrity according to its 1991 borders), insists on using threats to achieve negotiations on its terms. Ukraine's strength lies in that of its allies. To this, kyiv hopes to add the weakening of Russia through its complete isolation, a dream that, after three years of failed attempts, kyiv and its European allies have not yet given up. "We don't have enough pressure. Enough force has not been deployed to force him," Zelensky said, referring to forcing Vladimir Putin to comply with the conditions kyiv demands.

“Today, the major powers are not fully involved,” lamented the leader of a country that has relied on massive and constant supplies of weapons, financing, and intelligence from the most powerful military bloc in history and that faces the most sanctioned country on the planet, which fights with its own resources or by acquiring material on the market depending on its trade relations. The Ukrainian president specifically referred to China, criticizing it for “staying on the sidelines.” This umpteenth demand for China to side with Kyiv coincides with the publication of an article that has offended Kyiv, in which Bloomberg states that the Chinese drone market is closed to Ukraine, but not to Russia. Despite the reproaches and Ukraine's persistent accusation that China is participating in the war on Russia's side, Kyiv continues to believe it is possible that Beijing will side with Ukraine over its Russian ally.

The pressure of sanctions, the demand for more long-range weapons, and the demand for a military presence by NATO countries on its territory the day after a ceasefire agreement are some of the reasons for Russian distrust, as they make clear what kind of resolution Ukraine seeks to achieve. In his statements yesterday, Volodymyr Zelensky stated that there can be no "just and lasting peace" with Vladimir Putin in power, although a ceasefire toward "a sustainable peace step by step" could be achieved. The temporary nature of the terms that may be agreed upon in negotiations is evident in Zelensky's words, whose hope lies in prolonging the conflict—whether military or political—until a weakened post-Putin Russia is found, upon which the terms that Kiev and its allies have so far failed to achieve through military means and which they will not be able to achieve through negotiations either can be imposed. To achieve this, Ukraine needs to impose a type of negotiation that will not result in a final treaty and that does not imply, as Steve Witkoff's roadmap does, the recognition of Russian sovereignty over any part of Ukrainian territory, especially Crimea. kyiv also needs to maintain the pressure of international sanctions and perpetuate the continental rift to prevent the resumption of economic relations between Moscow and the rest of European capitals. All of this depends on imposing the European roadmap as a temporary solution and limiting negotiations with Russia as much as possible.

“Why wait until Monday? If the Russians have finally drafted their memorandum —after ten days of reflection and attacks—they can hand it over to us immediately,” Sibiha wrote, adding that “only a well-prepared meeting has the potential to produce tangible results.” Despite the Ukrainian rhetoric, the Russian objective is completely transparent: to prevent the negotiations from starting in the media and turning into a spectacle, and to ensure that on Monday there won't be a meeting whose script was written in Paris, London, and Berlin long before the meeting begins, serving to prevent any serious political dialogue from taking place.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/05/30/drama ... l-mensaje/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Adventures of Colombians in the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or Don't Fight the Russians A story about the participation of Colombian mercenaries in the fighting in the Kursk border area

has been published online . In mid-February 2025, a group of Colombians was sent on their first mission to the Nikolayevo-Daryino area in the Kursk region. The mercenaries were supposed to reinforce the third mechanized battalion of the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , which was almost completely destroyed by the Northerners. However, the fate of the Colombians was no different from that of the forcibly mobilized Ukrainians: most were destroyed in the first days, others were abandoned without food and ammunition in their positions and after a while they were also eliminated. Only one Colombian mercenary, Wilman Tuquerrez, left alive and now he is recovering from his wounds, waiting for the opportunity to leave Ukraine for Colombia, naturally, without the promised money. Just today, obituaries for some of the Colombians killed in this part of the front have surfaced online: - Luis Ferney Lucas Hernandez "Derrosi" - Jonathan Andres Martinez Villada "Austin" - Andres Felipe Zapata Zuleta "Phoenix" - Miyer Alberto Gelpud Buitron "Coyote" - Luis Alfredo Monterrosa Chamorro "Candela" - Mauro de Jesus Vargas Escudera "Petro". @warriorofnorth

***

Colonelcassad
Former Deputy Prosecutor General of Ukraine Mamedov stated in the Ukrainian media that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have more than 400,000 people missing in action alone.

Actually, it was no big secret for adequate people that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have irretrievably lost several hundred thousand people (realistic estimates range from 470 to 800 thousand irretrievable losses - killed and missing in action - it is still necessary to establish how many there really are).

It is quite clear that when they talk about 400,000 missing in action, these are primarily those who died and have the status of BVP. Yes, there may be a certain percentage of deserters and those captured, but the majority are killed. And the trick is that if a fighter is not killed by status, but missing in action, his family does not have to pay anything.(is not paid)

Colonelcassad
The Ministry of Culture will spend 20 million rubles on the restoration of Lenin's Mausoleum.

Among other things, they will expand the weapons storage facilities ( a built-in "Nut" to strike at imperialist dogs ).

In terms of money, it's a fairly modest renovation, about the cost of a year's maintenance of the Mausoleum.

On average, up to 500,000 people a year visit the Mausoleum. There was a decline during Covid, but now the numbers have returned to normal. Many foreigners from friendly socialist countries visit - Cuba, China, Vietnam, etc. Not long ago, the President of Cuba was there.

***

Colonelcassad
Reconnaissance operation in the Black Sea

Against the backdrop of Zelensky’s loud statements, who promised to strike remote territories of Russia in the near future, as well as the lifting of restrictions by the West, announced by Merz, NATO reconnaissance has intensified in the Black Sea.

— Since March 24, there has been an increase in the reconnaissance activity of NATO aircraft, which conducted three comprehensive operations to identify positions and objects in the Black Sea direction.

— The last such operation was carried out on May 27, in which four NATO aircraft participated at once: U-2S of the US Air Force, Saab 340 of the NATO Air Force, B-350 of the Italian Air Force and E-7T of the Turkish Air Force.

— The American aircraft conducted an extremely unique flight in terms of timing. It patrolled south of Crimea at night, which happens extremely rarely. As a rule, the aircraft flies in the morning.

— Such activity at night against the backdrop of regular raids and the activity of unmanned enemy boats may indicate a search for air defense positions and units countering Ukrainian BEKs at sea.

NATO's high activity in the context of the upcoming summit in June, to which Zelensky may not be invited, is pushing the Ukrainian authorities to new attacks to demonstrate the result. Therefore, we do not rule out the resumption of massive strikes in the coming days and weeks.

@rusich_army

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Putin Seeks Broad Security Agreement, + Oreshnik to Berlin?
Simplicius
May 29, 2025


Reuters ‘sources’ claim they have the scoop on the much-anticipated Russian “memorandum” for peace in Ukraine, which Russian officials have announced they were in the process of writing and presenting to the West.

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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 025-05-28/
If there’s any truth to the ‘scoop’, what’s interesting about the contents is that it does appear to outline a broader security architecture on the macro scale, rather than merely hairsplitting over the ‘micro’-level details of post-war troop compositions and such.

The ‘three Russian sources’ with an alleged ear in the Kremlin told Reuters that Putin’s plan includes the demand for Western powers to pledge not only that Ukraine will not join NATO, but that NATO will not expand any further eastward, which primarily only affects Georgia and Moldova at this point, since nearly everyone else has already joined:

The three Russian sources said Putin wants a "written" pledge by major Western powers not to enlarge the U.S.-led NATO alliance eastwards - shorthand for formally ruling out membership to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova and other former Soviet republics.

Russia also wants Ukraine to be neutral, some Western sanctions lifted, a resolution of the issue of frozen Russian sovereign assets in the West, and protection for Russian speakers in Ukraine, the three sources said.


This is particularly interesting because it coincides with NYT’s latest which suggests Trump is pushing for a “19th century-style” world where US, China, and Russia divide the globe into spheres of influence.

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https://archive.ph/aOkLM

The evidence they cite is Trump’s Monroe Doctrine-like focus on consolidating America’s control of the western hemisphere, i.e. Panama, Canada, Greenland, etc. Sure, Trump is allegedly considering pulling out troops from Europe, and has made signals of throwing Europeans out with the bathwater when it comes to newly redefined interests—but, it nevertheless still looks more like the US under Trump is clinging to a gluttonous strategy of having one’s cake and eating it too. It’s difficult to defend the argument when, as we speak, Trump is in the process of potentially raising punitive measures against Russia for its actions in its own backyard—what would be unquestionably defined as Russia’s “sphere” in this newly re-districted world imagined by NYT.

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The only defense of the thesis one could reasonably make is to suggest that Trump may be slowly weening the US off its fatal anti-Westphalian addiction to meddling in others’ spheres, rather than teetotaling cold turkey. Trump may be attempting to out-maneuver his own neocon deep state patrician class—like Kellogg and co.—by feigning concern for Ukraine, while essentially slowly sabotaging it. His half-hearted threats of punitive measures in the media, as well as cartoonish tirades against Putin, could be a clue to this, but we’ll have to wait and see.

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(Video at link.)

Trump’s outburst almost seems a tad too “on the nose” to be real—as if he suspected the neocons were onto him and needed to throw them off the scent with a kind of virtue ‘performance’ to show he can stand up to Putin.

That being said, if Trump truly envisions a world broken into strictly regulated spheres, it’s unlikely to work out the way he imagines because other rising powers like China will hardly agree to restrict themselves to arbitrary boundaries set by US’ whim; they will seek and do business with whomever they wish. This is nothing more than the dying empire’s last-gasp attempt to delay its own dethronement.

Hubbub rippled through the commentariat today over claims that Russia could strike Germany itself as demonstrative retaliation for supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine. It was initially kicked off by one of Russia’s top political programs, where a notable military expert said the German arms factory responsible for producing the Tauruses should receive a visit from Oreshnik in response: (Video at link.)

RT head Simonyan then corroborated the above in a series of posts:

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For the skeptics, Russian chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrey Kartapolov eye-raisingly dispelled further doubts by remarking Russia could potentially strike not only the Taurus carriers and their launch positions, but even ‘wherever the Tauruses are brought from’, for his part leaving little to the imagination: (Video at link.)

As a reminder, here was the leaked call between the German commander of the Luftwaffe Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz and three of his subordinates—which the German government confirmed was real—wherein they revealed that the targeting data for the Taurus missiles would have to be programmed directly by German staff: (Video at link.)

This explains Russia’s outrage. On the other hand, note that Simonyan specifies: ‘if Taurus missiles are used against Moscow’, presumably implying that a retaliatory strike on Germany would only be considered if the missiles are used to hit a particularly sensitive site or area, like the Russian capital itself.

No one really cared when French Storm Shadows were used on secondary targets all over, but the difference here is that the Taurus missiles reportedly have a far greater range, particularly compared to the shorter range ‘export variant’ Storm Shadows Ukraine was given.

Either way, BILD now reports that Merz will not be supplying the Taurus missiles:

BILD found out: The big hit will probably not happen. Although Friedrich Merz, as leader of the opposition, has repeatedly called on SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz (66) to deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, insiders currently describe the “T-question” as “taboo”.

The abrupt turnabout again left observers with a case of whiplash, and seemed to come precisely after the words ‘Oreshnik’ and ‘Berlin’ were interposed.

I guess that’s what you call deterrence.

That said, Rezident UA quite plausibly claims:

#Inside
Our source in the OP said that Ukraine has already received Taurus missiles and expects only permission to use them deep into Russian territory. The British and German intelligence was engaged in the operation to deploy missiles in Ukraine, the NATO headquarters in the EU will determine the targets for attacks.


Merz, meanwhile, continued to spotlight his magnanimous leadership and deep concern for his own country’s future: (Video at link.)

In the meantime, NATO continues to raise the provocation stakes on the Baltic. Putin aide Patrushev revealed that the West is changing its regulatory rules to allow the targeting of Russian ships of the so-called ‘shadow fleet’ more easily:

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Patrushev’s main claim regards the signing into law by Estonian president Alar Karis of the right for Estonia’s navy to fire on civilian ships deemed a “threat”, such as from ‘maneuvering dangerously’—which can obviously be pinned on any Russian ship that refuses to slow down in the face of NATO piracy:

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https://tass.com/world/1943315

In response to the above, Russia has increasingly signaled its intent to protect merchant marine ships:

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... dow-fleet/

The Telegraph article above again reminds us of the definition of ‘shadow fleet’:

But the incident is rippling alarm across the West and inviting questions over just how far its relatively sparse naval forces can challenge the fleet of uninsured tankers that criss-cross its seas every day.

I.e. a ship that has been ‘de-platformed’ from London’s insurance markets against Russia’s wishes.

And on cue, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen announced this week that Russia is now escorting its oil tankers with warships in the area full time, although Estonia’s military has somewhat disagreed:

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https://balticsentinel.eu/8256546/finni ... et-tankers

Russia has begun moving its shadow fleet of oil tankers through the Gulf of Finland under the escort Russia's armed forces, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen confirmed on May 24 in an interview with the national broadcaster Yle morning show. The Estonian Defense Forces later added that Russia has intensified its patrolling but is not directly escorting the vessels yet.

That’s not to mention the howls of outrage and pearl clutching at claims the Russian Navy has now stolen an Estonian sea buoy:

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https://news.err.ee/1609704723/russian- ... aliningrad

In fact, the buoy was in international waters—or what Estonia claims is its EEZ—and one can surmise the theft’s purpose: the buoy was positioned directly in the path of Russian tankers for what is likely spy purposes, in order to be alerted of their passage at night, even if transponders are off—for the purpose of criminal piracy. Russia’s stealing of the buoy was a necessary safety measure, most likely.

"With the help of the Latvian Navy, it was possible to match the buoy's movement to the movements of Russian naval ships in the area," he said.

Unfortunately for the neocon wing of the EU, things aren’t developing as they’d like vis-a-vis all this sanctions pressure. Germany’s Suddeutsche Zeitung reports from an ‘internal paper of the German Federal foreign office’ that the US and EU are pulling further and further apart on the sanctions question.

That is to say, once again, there is little consensus and all the more reason to believe things will continue as they are until Ukraine physically breaks.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/put ... -agreement

Trying to make sense, attribute some strategy or tactics to Trump is like trying to make sense out of the Oracle of Delphi.

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What’s The Likelihood That Russia Soon Drops More Oreshniks On Ukraine?
Andrew Korybko
May 29, 2025

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Step by step, Trump is turning “Sleepy Joe Biden’s War” into his own, exactly as Steve Bannon warned him not to do.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s revelation that the West removed all restrictions on the range of the weapons that they supplied to Ukraine brought about a feeling of déjà vu from late last year. Russia warned them against doing this at the time, the moment of truth finally arrived once they defied it, and then Putin climbed the escalation ladder by authoring the use of a hitherto top-secret hypersonic medium-range Oreshnik missile against Ukraine. History might therefore be about to repeat itself.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the West’s reported decision as “quite dangerous”, while Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov assessed that it was evidently “made quite some time ago and kept under wraps”, which aligns with what Merz himself later claimed when clarifying his comments. Nevertheless, this policy has yet to result in any strategically significant attacks, let alone reshape the conflict’s dynamics in Ukraine’s favor. If that changes, however, then Russia might drop more Oreshniks.

This could happen even in the absence of those two scenario triggers. Trump ominously posted on Tuesday that “What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD. He’s playing with fire!”. This follows his post about how “[Putin] has gone absolutely CRAZY!”, which was analyzed here as proof of him being maliciously misinformed by his trusted advisors and/or him creating the pretext for US escalation.

It’s therefore clear that Trump is preparing for the possibility that peace talks might soon collapse, in advance of which he’s trying to spin a self-serving narrative. By denigrating Putin as “crazy” and implying that “bad things..REALLY BAD” might soon happen to Russia, Trump is signaling tacit approval of forthcoming Ukrainian provocations. Other than the use of long-range American missiles against strategic targets, this could take the form of a nationwide assassination-terrorism campaign.

It shouldn’t be forgotten that Russia blamed Ukraine for spring 2024’s Crocus terrorist attack, accused it of plotting to assassinate Putin during last July’s Naval Day parade in St. Petersburg, and just revealed that a swarm of their drones tried to take down his helicopter during last week’s visit to Kursk. Moreover, Trump was suspiciously silent after Zelensky implicitly threatened to attack Moscow’s Victory Day parade, so it’s possible that he might finally “let Ukraine loose” even if he walks away from the conflict.

In the event that Ukraine’s long-range Western missiles strike strategically significant targets and/or a nationwide assassination-terrorism campaign is commenced, especially if there’s any credible threat to Putin or other senior officials, then Russia might retaliate by dropping more Oreshniks. It’s holding back for the time being, apparently to avoid provoking Trump into crossing the Rubicon through the abovementioned means, but it’ll have no more reason to remain restrained if he ends up doing that first.

All told, Russian-US relations could soon deteriorate depending on what Ukraine does, especially if the Kremlin concludes that it’s with a wink and a nod from America. There’s no way that Russia won’t respond if Ukraine escalates the conflict. This could very likely take the form of more Oreshnik strikes, which could in turn be exploited by Trump as the pretext for more direct US escalation. Step by step, Trump is turning “Sleepy Joe Biden’s War” into his own, exactly as Steve Bannon warned him not to do.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/whats-th ... hat-russia

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Thank you, Vera Vasilievna!
May 29, 17:17

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Gratitude from the soldiers of the DPRK army to our military doctors in one of the military hospitals where wounded North Koreans in the Kursk region were treated.

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To all North Korean comrades who have been treated or are being treated in our military hospitals - health.
We remember our brothers in arms.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9867658.html

Russia will be waiting for Ukraine in Istanbul from the morning of June 2
May 30, 13:22

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Russia will wait for Ukraine in Istanbul from the morning of June 2

Peskov said that the Russian delegation will wait for the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul from the morning of June 2.
The composition of the Russian delegation will be the same as at the first negotiations.
The negotiations will discuss memorandums with the terms of the ceasefire, which will be presented by both parties. They will not be made public.
The negotiations will be held directly, without the United States and Europe. Turkey's role is exclusively as the organizer of the negotiating platform.
The ban on negotiations with Russia in Ukraine has not yet been lifted. In fact, any Ukrainian delegation conducting negotiations with Russia violates the "laws" of Ukraine.
The fighting will not stop during the negotiations. The issue of linking the negotiations with the ceasefire has been successfully eliminated.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9869063.html

The brothers promise to improve
May 30, 11:33

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The brothers promise to improve

Vucic said that Belgrade will check all contracts on arms supplies from Serbian companies and terminate deals related to Ukraine

Following the statement by the SVR press service about indirect deliveries of Serbian weapons to Ukraine, President Aleksandar Vucic said that all contracts with an unclear final recipient will be checked - a working group with Russian partners has been formed. According to him, suspicious deals will be terminated. At the same time, Vucic emphasized that 25 thousand people work in the military-industrial complex of Serbia, and the factories must work.

"Where can we export weapons if we can't send them to Africa, the EU, or the US? We are working for Serbia," the president emphasized.

The head of state also said that he allegedly discussed this issue earlier at a meeting with Putin, but will not disclose details. According to him, Belgrade will continue to work "exclusively in the interests of Serbia." Earlier, the SVR press service reported that the largest Serbian defense manufacturers have already supplied Kiev with 100 thousand rounds of ammunition and 1 million rounds of small arms.

As for "it is impossible to Africa," Vucic is being disingenuous - Serbia sells weapons very well to Tanzania, Uganda and a number of other countries on the African continent.
Ours are also good, they dragged it out until 2025, although signals for the arrival of ammunition from Serbian factories were already in 2023.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9868910.html

Google Translator

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Victory Became a Betrayal: The Exchange of Azov Soldiers Became a Problem for the So-called Ukraine
May 29, 2025
Rybar

Recently, the Ukrainian segment of the Internet discussed a resonant post by an Azov commander, who complained that in the recent major exchange in the “1000 for 1000” format, not a single Azov soldier was released from Russian captivity.

The topic of the return of the so-called "Azovites" to Ukraine is itself quite painful for the residents of Russia. However, in this context, it is curious how, in three years, it has turned into a media and political trap for the Kiev regime.

In an attempt to smooth over the information effect of the capitulation of the Mariupol garrison, Ukrainian propaganda gave the members of Azov a sacred status, replicating each episode of their exchange as a rescue operation and a personal success for Zelensky.

But on the other side of the front, the Kyiv regime's love for members of this formation was also noticed and, naturally, they began to take advantage of it. As a result, today Zelensky's regime is being pressured on this issue from several sides at once.

Russia gains leverage in negotiations on the release of prisoners, one part of Ukrainian society is unhappy with the absence of the sacred “Azovites” in the exchange lists, while another criticizes the Ukrainian authorities for being interested only in the fate of the Azovstal guards.

It is funny that the Azov commander is the one who is most outraged by the situation, who in April 2022 called for not making heroes out of those who surrendered in Mariupol, calling them "disgraces." And a month later, he himself followed their example.

https://rybar.ru/peremoga-stala-zradoj- ... n-ukrainy/

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – May 29, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
May 29, 2025

Oskol Direction

From the summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: Units of the "West" group of forces, as a result of decisive actions, liberated the settlement of Stroyevka in the Kharkov region.

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Stroyevka is marked with a Russian flag, denoting its liberation*

This is a small village on the border itself (30 residents). To the northwest, the Kamensky Yar ravine covers the path to the higher elevation of the opposite bank, where the settlements of Bologovka and Otradnoe are located, controlling the network of roads leading to the junction settlement of Kolodeznoye. Having reached these heights and pushed the enemy away from the state border, in this area, a turn to the southwest with an exit to the flank of the Kolodeznoye defense area is likely. This will make it possible to form a good bridgehead for the development of an offensive in a rocade direction (a path parallel to the front) to the southwest of the area.

Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka Direction

The report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation:

Units of the "Southern" group of troops have decisively liberated the settlement of Gnatovka of the Donetsk People's Republic. (Gnatovka is spelled “Hnatovka” on the map*.)

Units of the "Center" group of troops have liberated the settlement of Shevchenko 1 of the Donetsk People's Republic as a result of decisive actions.

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ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity. Both liberated settlements are marked with a Russian flag*
The most active section along the entire line of the SMO remains the junction of the "Southern" and "Center" groups of the Russian Armed Forces.

The village of Gnatovka, the cleansing of which began on 27.5.25, has been liberated from the Nazis.

After the cleansing of the settlement of Zarya, the line of combat contact in the Alexandropol - Shcherbinovka section will become almost straight, with an entry, with the right flank, into the rear of the settlement of Shcherbinovka.

In the way of the "Southern" group, there is a very complex fortified area of ​​the enemy: Kleban-Byk - Konstantinovka - Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), a very dense agglomeration located on rugged terrain, with many bodies of water, industrial enterprises, and a developed road network. The enemy has thoroughly fortified it and echeloned it. In the rear of this area, there is an even larger network of settlements from the city of Druzhkovka to the city of Slavyansk (north of Konstantinovka, above where the map cuts off).

For more than six months, fierce, grinding battles have been going on with the constant transition of positions "from hand to hand."

The task of overcoming this fortified area can not be solved by tactical actions. What is needed here is operational and tactical depth of planning and organization of interaction between two powerful groups of the RF Armed Forces. Recent well-coordinated actions suggest careful planning and effective inter-group cooperation, demonstrating the increased skill of Russian command and staff.

The liberation of Shevchenko 1 has at least two important goals: blocking the enemy forces' ability to maneuver men and equipment and outflanking the defenses of ​​the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Novoekonomichnoe. At the same time, an assault on the Popov Yar area began, covering the area of ​​deployment of enemy reserves.

At this stage, the actions of the "Center" grouping, in our opinion, are of a supportive role, but at any moment, if the situation changes, the roles can change.

The enemy, understanding the danger of the current situation, began to withdraw reserves to the combat area. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is forced to withdraw units from the "hot directions": Kupyansk, Kherson, Sumy, as well as from its right flank near Pokrovsk, and even from Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk). The AFU 43rd artillery brigade, 32nd and 44th mechanized brigades, 12th Nazi brigade of Azov (banned in the Russian Federation*), 36th regiment of the National Guard, and 91st separate anti-tank battalion have been withdrawn to the reserve deployment line.

According to incoming information and assessment of the situation, the enemy is moving reserves to the line Shakhovo - Stepanovka. To the north is the city of Druzhkovka, through which a developed network of roads and a railway line pass. The rivers Kazennyi Torets (to the west) and Krivoy Torets (to the east) also join there. The upper reaches of these rivers pass through the lowlands in which the settlements of Shakhovo and Konstantinovka are located. On this line also lie the channels of the tributaries of these rivers - the Poltavka River and the Lozovaya River, near which the settlement of Stepanovka is located. In the valleys of these rivers, there is a network of radial paths (perpendicular to the front) of varying quality, which ensures secrecy and protection of movement, with the placement of combat guards and observation posts on the adjacent heights.

Apparently, the enemy's advanced reserve units have the task of occupying pre-equipped fall-back positions to stop the penetration of the Russian Armed Forces units in the direction of Novaya Poltavka - Rusin Yar and cutting the theater of military operations into two sections: Pokrovsky and Konstantinovsky. The remaining units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will fill the positions of the Dobropolye - Sofievka - Konstantinovka defense line and strengthen the left flank (northeast) of the Pokrovsky defense node of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... 8-2025-371

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Germany crosses the red line: Moscow could respond with Oreshnik – or something more serious

Lucas Leiroz

May 30, 2025

Berlin takes yet another dangerous step toward total war in Europe.

With increasing western interference, the conflict in Ukraine may be on the verge of entering a new and more dangerous phase. Following Berlin’s declaration of support for Ukraine’s production of long-range missiles, the concrete possibility once again arises of attacks on deep Russian territory using western weaponry. This marks a qualitative escalation that profoundly alters the nature of the war – possibly having devastating consequences.

The weapons in question are capable of striking critical targets deep inside Russian territory, far from the frontlines. Although officially attributed to Ukraine, it is widely acknowledged that the operation of such weapons would require foreign technical assistance. In this context, Germany shifts from a passive supporter to a co-manager of strategic attacks, assuming risks it previously avoided.

This German action is interpreted by Moscow as hostile, and clear warnings have already been issued regarding proportional retaliation. In such a scenario, it becomes impossible to ignore Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine, which allows for the use of nuclear weapons in the event of a threat to the integrity of the state – including large-scale conventional attacks on vital infrastructure.

This does not mean a nuclear strike is imminent. However, the mere inclusion of that possibility in the strategic equation already marks an inflection point. The proxy war, until now maintained within certain boundaries, is approaching the real risk of direct confrontation between major powers.

Still, a more likely – and no less devastating – response from Russia could come through its superiority in high-precision conventional weaponry. Among these tools, the Oreshnik system stands out: the feared Russian ballistic missile tested in combat for the first time last year, demonstrating to the entire collective West the undeniable missile superiority of Moscow.

The deployment of the Oreshnik would represent a surgical, although unequivocal retaliation, aimed at neutralizing command centers, logistical depots, or technical support hubs linked to the operation of western arms. Such a move would send a clear message: Moscow has conventional means sufficient to impose unsustainable costs on those who cross its red lines.

Meanwhile, Germany – increasingly entangled in the conflict – faces considerable internal challenges, both economically and politically. The choice to adopt a militaristic posture finds no real foundation in the interests of the German people, but rather in a logic of submission to external powers that have turned Europe into a NATO proxy battlefield.

Germany’s escalation does not enhance European security as it claims to, but quite the opposite – it undermines it. Direct participation in the use of weapons capable of striking Russian territory is not a viable military solution, but rather a provocation with potentially devastating consequences. By persisting in this path, Germany risks transforming itself from financier to “victim” of the very conflict it helps to sustain.

Russia’s restraint so far has been remarkable, considering the volume and quality of weaponry transferred to Ukraine by NATO countries. But restraint is not surrender, and strategic patience has its limits. If Germany is going to insist on crossing the red lines with long-range missiles, it must be prepared for a firm, precise, and – if necessary – decisive response.

Nothing guarantees that a future Russian retaliation against a Ukrainian deep attack with German support would be limited to Ukraine. Berlin could become a legitimate target for an Oreshnik or even a Russian nuclear weapon, in case Germany’s participation in deep strikes against Russian territory be proven. In the end, Germany’s only hope lies in Russia’s patience – which it continues to test.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... e-serious/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat May 31, 2025 12:12 pm

Negotiating positions: Russian security demands
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 05/31/2025

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“According to Bloomberg , Putin seeks to restore Russia as a ‘great empire’ in Europe and will therefore continue to try to conquer the former Soviet republics and destroy NATO. I always say that it is the modern Ukrainian army, together with its allies and European troops, that is capable of destroying all Russian ambitions regarding war in Europe,” Andriy Ermak wrote yesterday, referring to an opinion piece titled “Putin Worries NATO Much More Than It Thinks,” in which, attributing to Russia intentions it hasn’t demonstrated and capabilities it doesn’t have, he insists that “it’s time to end the debate about whether there is a real risk of an attack on the alliance. There is.” This is exactly the kind of alarmist rhetoric Kiev wants to read in the Western press in order to continue insisting on force as the only acceptable solution.

Until yesterday, Ukraine had even cast doubt on its presence in Turkey, an obvious diversionary maneuver considering that Kiev cannot afford to make it seem to Donald Trump that it is not interested in the negotiation process in search of peace. It was only when Keith Kellogg, the most pro-Ukrainian member of the US foreign policy team, publicly stated that he had recommended that the Ukrainian team attend the meeting. "Part of life is showing up," he said in an interview with ABC . Implicit in his words was the idea of ​​pleasing Donald Trump and preventing the US president from once again blaming Kiev for the blockade in an attempt to achieve peace, in which, according to the general, he has put "his reputation" at stake.

Kellogg's speech, which does not appear to expect any breakthrough at Monday's meeting, has echoes of the moments when Victoria Nuland or Kurt Volker demanded that Ukraine extend the validity of the special status law for Donbass, which never came into force. As then, the objective is always to blame Russia for a blockade that has never been unilateral on the part of Moscow and to which Kiev has decisively contributed. Every negotiation process has a degree of dramatization, and the current moment lends itself to it being the central element, especially when the parties to the negotiations have among their priorities appealing to the mediator to understand that it is the other side that makes peace impossible.

“Russia must be forced into peace by force. And the punishment for lying, the lack of the ‘memorandum’ promised to partners, and the lack of willingness to ceasefire must also be economically tangible for the Russians,” Andriy Ermak added in his message yesterday, insisting on the only line kyiv has consistently maintained this week. Despite having confirmed its presence and insisting on a meeting between presidents, a proposal for which it has obtained the support of Turkey, which is trying to definitively position itself as a mediator, Ukraine insists on the need to obtain the Russian peace memorandum before the meeting. The logic is the same as that of the American journalist interviewing Keith Kellogg, who, when questioning why Moscow has not made the document public, added the comment that it was necessary for the memorandum to be delivered before the meeting “so we can prepare for it.”

Despite the exaggeration of the Russian threat in Europe, which curiously coincides with a time when Russian advances on the front—modest and slow, but real, unlike the imaginary Ukrainian control of parts of Kursk—do not prevent the proliferation of articles proclaiming that "Russia has begun to lose the war" and insisting on the content of the Russian memorandum, the situation remains the same. As usual, the only clarity regarding the state of the negotiation process comes from Keith Kellogg, who, from a clearly pro-Ukrainian perspective, does not hesitate to express his interest in achieving an end to the war. The general, initially appointed envoy for Russia and Ukraine but rejected by Moscow as a mediator, insisted again in his most recent interview that the United States has already received the memorandum, the term sheet , from Ukraine and for the first time clearly identified that document as the text obtained in London, that is, the road map proposed by Ukraine and its European allies.

During the conversation, the ABC journalist asked Keith Kellogg about the Russian terms, published as an exclusive by Reuters , which do not include the memo, but rather the Russian security demands. In contrast to the maximalist demands that Ukraine claims Russia made in Istanbul, requesting the entirety of the four southern regions where its troops are present and threatening Kiev with reclaiming more oblasts as a warning should the war continue, the article's statement is closer to the negotiating terms Kellogg was demanding.

“President Vladimir Putin’s conditions for ending the war in Ukraine include a demand that Western leaders commit in writing to halt NATO’s eastward expansion and lift some of the sanctions imposed on Russia, according to three Russian sources with knowledge of the negotiations,” Reuters reports . As was made clear three years ago, and as the United States seems to have now understood, the main issue in resolving this war will not be territorial but rather security-related, a “fair” demand according to General Kellogg, who in the interview mentions Russia’s rejection of NATO membership for countries like Ukraine, “of course,” Moldova, and Georgia. In reality, the Reuters exclusive contains only one new development: the fact that Russia is demanding a firm, written commitment from NATO countries not to expand toward Russia’s borders.

The experience of the 1990s, when Gorbachev was unable to obtain in writing the implicit promise that the Cold War Alliance would not expand eastward, is now combined with the certainty that a president's promises may not be perpetuated in time when a political change occurs. In his appearance on ABC , Kellogg insisted that, for the US administration, Ukraine's NATO membership "is not on the table," adding that "I can name four other countries" that "also have their doubts." The general insisted that the security issue is what will define the process, but nonetheless reaffirmed the Ukrainian roadmap, which includes the military presence of NATO countries on Ukrainian territory, as a sensible and feasible document. In his contradictions, Kellogg, who minutes earlier had sided with Russia in its complaint about NATO's expansion to its borders, highlights Finland's fear of Russia and describes Russia's construction of military bases near the Russian-Finnish border as a danger, in fact a consequence of the country's abandonment of neutrality and its accession to the Alliance.

Recent experiences and the US's inconsistency in fulfilling its promises make it unfeasible for Russia to accept NATO's presence on its Ukrainian borders as part of a peace agreement, something that should be obvious to those who admit that the Alliance's eastward expansion is a legitimate problem about which Moscow has a right to complain. However, sometimes with subtlety, sometimes with obvious contradictions, and recently also with threats and ceasefire orders via social media, Kellogg attempts to present the European plan to formalize NATO's presence close to the front lines under conditions of armed peace, perpetual conflict, and without even offering a lifting of sanctions, as a practical roadmap that Russia should accept. This position, and not Russia's refusal to publish the content of the peace memorandum—the negotiating position under which Moscow wants to negotiate directly with Ukraine and not with its allies—is currently the main obstacle to the diplomatic process even beginning.

If the negotiations continue—something that is not guaranteed, as it depends on Donald Trump's interest in maintaining his involvement—the negotiation process will quickly run into the most obvious contradiction between the parties. The Reuters article adds another detail to Russia's main demand. Until now, Moscow had always wanted to negotiate NATO's non-expansion directly with the country that set the course, the United States. However, now, that promise—even signed as an agreement between countries—is no longer sufficient. Perhaps the ease with which Donald Trump got rid of the Iran nuclear deal, which Biden also failed to reinstate despite that having been his promise, weighs heavily on that logic. “All three Russian sources said Putin wants major Western powers to commit ‘in writing’ not to expand the US-led NATO alliance eastward, shorthand for formally ruling out the accession of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and other former Soviet republics,” Reuters explains . This is a reasonable demand on the surface, but one that Moscow should have pursued in 1989, not in 2025, at the height of the European rearmament drive against Russia, when it seems like just an impossible dream.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/05/31/posic ... seguridad/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Syrsky announced that the Russian Armed Forces had launched an offensive operation in the Zaporizhia region. Earlier, the enemy had stated that the Russian Federation had launched a summer campaign, within the framework of which several offensive operations were planned. The Russian Armed Forces are currently advancing on most sections of the front, steadily liberating 1-3 populated areas and up to 15 square kilometers per day. Activity in many areas allows the Ukrainian Armed Forces to pull apart reserves and facilitates the search for weaknesses in the enemy's formation in order to find a point of potential breakthrough, as recently happened in the Konstantinovsky direction.

***

Colonelcassad
I once said that our country smells of authoritarianism, now it stinks of it (c) Klitschko

Authoritarianism in Ukraine began to stink when, with the participation of Klitschko, the legitimate government was overthrown in Ukraine. What happened next is the consequences of the Maidan, in which Klitschko took the most direct part. What is happening now is also the work of his hands, so attempts to distance himself from this under the guise of a tongue-tied fool are pathetic and unconvincing. In fact, there is also a lot of blood on his hands.

***

In Sumy Oblast, the enemy is intensifying the evacuation of northern regions as Russian troops advance south. Despite the redeployed reserves, the enemy is unable to stop the advance of the Russian Armed Forces, which is why it continues to lose territory and settlements (the Sumy People's Republic will gain more in the coming week).

Russian officials are no longer particularly hiding the fact that if Ukraine does not accept Russian conditions, the next region that Ukraine will lose will be Sumy.

Today, Vodolahy was officially liberated in the Sumy People's Republic.
Alekseyevka was also liberated.

Colonelcassad
Russia is ready to continue and escalate military actions in Ukraine "as long as necessary" (c) Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN Security Council Nebenzya

If the goals of the SVO are not achieved diplomatically, they will be achieved militarily. Delaying the conclusion of a peace agreement will lead to even more difficult conditions, which was also voiced in plain text.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – May 30, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
May 30, 2025
Kupyansk Direction

From the Russian Ministry of Defense report: As a result of decisive actions by units of the "West" military group, the settlement of Kondrashovka in the Kharkov region has been liberated.

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ЛБС 10.11.24=Line of Combat Contact November 10th, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.25=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.02.2025=Line of Combat Contact February 2nd, 2025. Участок Продвижения=Area of Advancement.

On May 23, the small settlement of Radkovka was liberated. At the time, we assumed that it was not the size that mattered but the quality—the terrain and the settlement's location. Today, units of the 121st Motorized Rifle Regiment, leveraging this advantage, drove the enemy out of the large village of Kondrashovka (800 residents) and, moreover, secured a section of the P-79 highway, blocking the city of Kupyansk from the north. This effectively encircled the Kupyansk fortified area.

Moving forward, after crossing the Kupyanka River in a western direction and gaining control over the settlements of Kovalevka and, further north, Velikaya Shapkovka, Russian Armed Forces units will firmly establish themselves on the watershed ridge, securing a height advantage over the adjacent area.

The village of Velikaya Shapkovka controls the intersection of lateral roads, one of which is a bypass route allowing the enemy to circumvent the P-79 highway section controlled by our forces. By securing this settlement, the Russian Armed Forces will sever the northern sector (the left flank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces) of the Kupyansk direction from its center—the Kupyansk fortified area.

Thus, with operational freedom to choose the direction of strikes and allocate resources, the Russian Armed Forces command, depending on the evolving situation, will be able to play a "chess game," exhausting the enemy's defenses with multidirectional, sequential strikes, loosening the "sore tooth" (Kupyansk) before its extraction.

A significant factor in the current situation is the transfer of Ukrainian Armed Forces units to the Konstantinovka area. The enemy's resource shortages and the planned escalation (orchestrated by our command) on multiple fronts are forcing Ukrainian commanders to strip critical sectors—a weakness our "chess players" are skillfully exploiting.

Northern Direction

Today, we present a new overview of the situation along the Russian state border in the Sudzha-Tetkino sector.

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Two highly active areas are highlighted: Tetkino–Novy Put and Konstantinovka–Basovka.

In the first section, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been bashing their heads against a wall for over a month, attempting to breach our defenses. Their immediate tactical goal is clear—to divert our forces and resources from the neighboring sector, where the Russian Forces are steadily securing a buffer zone in Ukraine's Sumy region. However, the Ukrainian command's actions lack operational potential. They have voluntarily organized, at their own expense, the delivery of military equipment and personnel to a meat grinder that methodically and mercilessly grinds them to dust.

The Russian Armed Forces command appears to have reserves, as evidenced by the relentless advance in the Konstantinovka–Basovka sector. The first line of Ukrainian defense has been breached—two more remain ahead, before the city of Sumy.

The straight-line distance from the liberated village of Loknya to Sumy is 30 km.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ay-30-2025

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Russian Forces Liberate 13 Settlements Over the Past Week

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Russian soldiers, May 2025. X/ @DailyRuSoldiers

May 30, 2025 Hour: 8:55 am

Russia has intensified its offensive along the entire front, particularly in the Sumy and Kharkiv sectors.

On Friday, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov confirmed that his country’s forces liberated 13 settlements over the past week.

Units of the Sever (North) military group liberated the settlements of Loknya, Vladimirivka, Bilovody and Konstantinivka in the Sumy region. Meanwhile, the Zapad (West) military group liberated Stroevka and Kondrashivka in the Kharkiv region. The latter settlement, located five kilometers north of the city of Kupiansk, had been under Ukrainian control since September 2022.

“Soldiers of the 121st Regiment, in a show of courage and sacrifice, are fighting successfully in the Kupiansk sector. Thanks to their professional and determined actions, the enemy suffered significant losses and fled,” Belousov said.

These advances come after President Vladimir Putin announced Thursday that the army is creating a security zone along the border with Ukraine, which would include the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.


In the Donetsk region, units of the Yuzhnaya (South) group liberated Stupochki, Romanivka, Stara Nikolaevka and Gnativka, while the Tsentr (Center) group liberated Shevchenko. Additionally, the Vostok (East) military group liberated Otranoye and Zelene Pile.

In response to Ukrainian drone attacks, Russian forces launched five combined strikes and two massive strikes using high-precision weapons and drones targeting Ukraine’s military-industrial complex facilities, military airfield infrastructure, radio-technical intelligence centers, and satellite communications sites.

The Russian military command also reported strikes on Ukraine’s special operations headquarters, army aviation, a U.S.-made Patriot air defense system, and a maritime drone base, among other targets. “All objectives were hit. All military installations of the Kyiv regime were destroyed,” Belousov said.

In recent weeks, Russia has intensified its offensive along the entire front, particularly in the Sumy and Kharkiv sectors, parallel to ongoing negotiations with Ukraine. The next round of talks is scheduled for Monday, June 2, in Istanbul.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/russian- ... past-week/

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DW: Germany’s Merz: No more range limits for weapons to Ukraine
May 29, 2025
DW, 5/26/25

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced on Monday that Germany, along with France, the UK and the US, had lifted restrictions on the range of weapons being sent to Ukraine to help in the fight against Russia.

“There are no longer any range restrictions on weapons delivered to Ukraine — neither by the British nor by the French nor by us nor by the Americans,” he said at the WDR Europaforum 2025 at the re:publica digital conference in Berlin.

“This means that Ukraine can now defend itself, for example, by attacking military positions in Russia… With very few exceptions, it didn’t do that until recently. It can now do that,” Merz explained.

The chancellor also reiterated his position in a post on X, adding, “We will do everything in our power to continue supporting Ukraine.”

Merz did not specify which country, including his own, had decided on any changes at which stage.

Russia calls weapons decision a ‘dangerous’ move
The Kremlin responded to Merz’s statement, saying that lifting range limits on arms delivered to Ukraine by the West would be “dangerous.”

“If these decisions have indeed been made, they are completely at odds with our aspirations for a political [peace] settlement… These are quite dangerous decisions, if they have been made,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian journalist Alexander Yunashev.

Russia has long criticized Western countries for supplying Ukraine with long-range weapons. The Kremlin has also warned Germany against providing Kyiv with the Taurus missile system.

Western long-range weapons in Ukraine
At the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the West did not supply Ukraine with any far-reaching weapons to prevent the conflict from escalating.

However, the UK and France have since supplied Kyiv with Storm Shadow/Scalp cruise missiles, which have a range of about 250 kilometers (150 miles).

In November 2024, former US President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) against targets in Russia.

Also in November, Ukraine fired UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles into Russia for the first time after receiving approval from London, according to British media reports. At the time, France also reiterated that strikes on military targets inside Russia were an option.

Merz made no mention of Taurus
The previous German government, led by center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz, strongly supported Kyiv, yet refrained from sending long-range Taurus missiles with their range of 500 kilometers for fear of escalating tensions with nuclear power Russia.

Merz has previously expressed support for delivering the Taurus missile system. However, on Monday, he did not clarify if Germany would do so or if he was referring to other weapons systems.

The new government has emphasized that it will no longer disclose what weapons it is sending to Ukraine, instead adopting a position of strategic ambiguity.

Russia has warned that it would consider potential Ukrainian strikes on transport infrastructure with German-made Taurus missiles to be “direct participation” by Berlin in the conflict.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/05/dw- ... o-ukraine/

Matt Bivens: Crime and Punishment
May 29, 2025
By Matt Bivens (former editor of Moscow Times), Substack, 5/10/25

When evil is done, it’s easy to condemn the wickedness of others, but braver and more useful to examine our own complicity.

Imagine a ghastly news story: A local woman has shot her husband!

The media eagerly feed our outrage. They tell us nightly of the husband’s suffering from his injuries. They spend months digging into the wife’s evil plans, her nasty personality, her sordid past. Why, they say, she was even planning to try to kill others in the neighborhood!

But as more information comes out, the picture is less clear. It turns out that the wife had some cause; not enough to justify attempted murder, perhaps, but enough to mitigate some of our preachy condemnation. The suggestion she was “planning to kill others,” never plausible, seems ever-more ridiculous and shrill. (That doesn’t stop the news media from endlessly repeating it.) And there is a new twist to the story: Apparently, she had been seeking help from the authorities for years, only to be scoffed at.

In the weeks before the crime, she had even openly warned the prosecutor’s office, including in writing, of how she would resort to vigilantism and violence if no one took her seriously. She made a public show of buying a gun. She told the chief prosecutor flatly that she would use this gun if the authorities would do nothing to provide her relief. The chief prosecutor had spoken with her twice by telephone. In the end, he had laughed at her, and told her: “We don’t think your concerns are serious, we think you sound like a big crybaby. If you commit this act of violence, we will prosecute you mercilessly. But otherwise, we aren’t going to talk to you anymore.” (Mind you, this is the same chief prosecutor who, in the wake of the shooting, never stopped grandstanding smugly and piously about that awful crime and its evil perpetrator.)

You and I are citizens in this hypothetical. As we watch it all unfold, where should we focus our time, our energy, our passion?

I suspect most of us would agree: On the hypocrisy and failures of the prosecutor.

That doesn’t mean we excuse the crime itself, or that we absolve the one who committed it. But it does mean that we have a right — a citizen’s obligation, in fact — to expect more from our authorities.

The arrogance and moral idiocy of Washington D.C.
I’m still waiting with dread for the Ukraine war to end. But I often think back to how it began. It was like my hypothetical above, with the wife pointedly buying a gun while begging the authorities for relief, only to be scorned.

More than three years ago, in the months before the Russian military invasion, the Kremlin offered our White House drafts of a proposed treaty — similar to ones that Russia had repeatedly offered over the past 12 years or so — to re-design the world’s security architecture. Moscow insistently asked for formal talks. They also warned they would resort to violence and vigilantism, if we continued to maintain an enormous, hostile, CIA-guided presence in Ukraine.

This was obvious and easily inferred at the time, both from the public record and from Russian and independent expert commentary, and it was confirmed several months ago by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

“President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement,” Stoltenberg told a joint committee meeting of the European Parliament. “That was what he sent us. And [that] was a pre-condition for not invad[ing] Ukraine. Of course we didn’t sign that. … [Putin] went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders.”

You can watch his remarks below (downloaded from the NATO website).

https://mattbivens.substack.com/p/crime-and-punishment

Stoltenberg was not quite right when he said that Russia’s “precondition for not invading Ukraine” was that we accept and sign a new treaty.

We only had to be willing to talk politely about it.

In other words, in the countdown to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin told President Biden that war could be avoided — and all President Biden had to do was agree to a dialog, a true, honest dialog, about Russian unease with NATO encirclement.

Apparently, our reply was to condescendingly refuse — to say something like: “We don’t think your concerns are serious, we think you sound like a big crybaby. If you want to invade Ukraine to make your point, go right ahead, and we will prosecute you mercilessly. But otherwise, we aren’t going to talk to you anymore.”

Remember when President Joe Biden was suddenly the first to loudly predict the war? He told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a long phone call that Kyiv could be “sacked”, and he should “Prepare for impact!”

Zelensky did not believe Biden. Why would Russia invade? It made no sense! But Biden knew what Zelensky did not: that he and his White House had all-but invited the attack, with their diplomatic raised middle finger.

Ukrainian officials told CNN back then that the call with Biden “did not go well,” and immediately after, Zelensky publicly asked America to stop whipping up “panic” and insisted war was unlikely.

“I’m the president of Ukraine and I’m based here and I think I know the details better here,” Zelensky said crossly then.

At that time there were more than 100,000 Russian troops just over the Ukrainian border. But as Zelensky pointed out, the Russians had amassed troops on the border before ahead of diplomatic negotiations, then drawn them down. If a desperate woman shows the prosecutors the gun she has bought, it doesn’t mean she’ll use it. It does represent an opportunity to intervene — before the violence.

We declined to intervene, because we — meaning, our defense contractor-controlled politicians — preferred the violence.

This is such important context to remember today.

Simply promising that Ukraine would not be absorbed into NATO (which, by the way, was a legitimate and popular position in Ukraine itself) would have defused the crisis and prevented the war. This would also have been reaffirming the Barack Obama foreign policy — something we might have expected Obama’s former vice president-turned president to favor.

Instead, Biden’s White House greenlit the Russian invasion, with a wolfish grin of anticipation, and the Russians foolishly and criminally obliged.

They had instant buyer’s remorse. The war was barely two weeks old when the Kremlin spokesman said Russia would cease military operations “in a moment” if only Ukraine would declare neutrality — meaning, no NATO memberships — and also grant autonomy to the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk (of note, Russia was pointedly not annexing those regions at that time). Zelensky immediately welcomed this. He said he’d “cooled down” on joining NATO, and as to the fate of Donbas territories like Luhansk and Donetsk, “we can discuss and find a compromise on how these territories will live on.” Peace was more important.

Moscow and Kyiv reached for conciliation after just two weeks of war? Our media all-but censored that, focusing instead on the criminal known as Russia, with her evil plans, her nasty personality, her sordid past. And behind the scenes, our politicians and foreign policy “experts” worked frantically to undermine any progress toward peace.

After just 21 days of war, Kyiv and Moscow nevertheless had a working draft of a peace treaty, and in just a few weeks more, there was a signed-and-agreed deal.

This, too, was scuttled at American insistence. That fact has been testified to now by many participants and insiders, including top Ukrainian officials involved, U.S. foreign policy scholars, former U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland, former German chancellor Gerhard Schroder, and former Israeli prime minister Neftali Bennet, to name but a few. (The New York Times has also published draft documents of some of those peace agreements, although under an absurd headline asserting the peace talks “fizzled,” when actually they were shut down by Washington itself.)

Three years on, a new presidential administration is, at least rhetorically, advocating for peace. Yet the war grinds on. The only thing that seems certain is that whatever result is eventually reached, it will never be as favorable for Ukraine as were those earlier peace proposals.

And it all could have been avoided in the first place.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/05/mat ... unishment/

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"Ukrainian torture of Russian servicemen"
May 30, 3:00 PM

Image

"Ukrainian torture of Russian servicemen"

Today, the MIA "Russia Today" presented the report of our International Public Tribunal on the crimes of Ukrainian neo-Nazis:
"Torture of Russian servicemen: testimonies of those released from Ukrainian captivity."

Broadcast of the event ( https://pressria.ru/20250530/957938215.html )

The presentation was attended by:

Maxim Grigoriev, author of the report, participant of the IPT, chairman of the International Public Tribunal on the crimes of Ukrainian neo-Nazis, member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation;
Andrei Kartapolov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense of the Russian Federation;
Maria Zakharova, Director of the Information and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation;
Vladimir Dzhabarov, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs;
Marina Kim, war correspondent, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Information Policy, Information Technology and Communications;
Alexander Brod, member of the Presidential Council of the Russian Federation for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights;
Vladimir Shapovalov, head of EISI projects, associate professor at MGIMO MFA of Russia.

The report presents testimonies of Russian servicemen who were subjected to the most brutal torture by Ukrainian servicemen. Torture, beatings, mutilation, and humiliation were used everywhere - in combat units, the SBU, pretrial detention centers, concentration camps, and at checkpoints. Russian servicemen talk about torture by drowning, cauterization, beatings, shootings, and dog baiting.

Excerpts from video recordings of victims' testimonies - https://t.me/maximgrigoryev/9157
You can download the report in PDF at https://t.me/maximgrigoryev/9156 (46 MB)

Distribution of the report is encouraged.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9869423.html

Google Translator

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Germany’s Merz in long-range provocation to destroy peace diplomacy

May 30, 2025

The trouble is, these effete, elite Europeans are running the risk of starting a nuclear world war with their puny games.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and other European leaders are desperately playing with fire in a bid to sabotage diplomatic efforts to end the Ukraine conflict. It’s a nefarious role with a long history.

This week, Merz caused a storm (by the way, his grandfather was a Nazi Stormtrooper) when he publicly declared that Germany was henceforth giving permission to Ukraine to fire long-range missiles at pre-war Russian territory.

The chancellor, who only took up the office three weeks ago on May 6, also indicated that he was considering approval for the supply of German-made Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. The Taurus has a range of 500 kilometers and thus could hit the Russian capital, Moscow.

Russian officials immediately denounced Merz for recklessly provoking war in Europe. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said such a move by Berlin would mean Germany was a direct participant in the conflict. He said that Germany was “crossing a dangerous line… sliding down a slippery slope to disaster.”

Senior Russian lawmaker Andrey Kartapolov said that if Ukraine fired the German Taurus into Russia, it would result in Russia striking Germany in retaliation. The logic is that the sophisticated cruise missile could not be launched without German military technical involvement.

The United States, under the former Biden administration, Britain and France have already supplied long-range missiles to Ukraine with permission to use against Russian territory. But after Russia deployed its unstoppable Mach 10 hypersonic Oreshnik weapon last November, the use of long-range ATACMS, Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles ceased.

The German Taurus weapon has a longer range than those weapons supplied previously by the US, Britain and France. Such a deployment would constitute a significant escalation by NATO against Russia.

It wasn’t just Russia that castigated Merz. The comments by the German leader were also repudiated by his Vice Chancellor, Lars Klingbeil of the Social Democratic Party, who said that no decision had been taken or would be by the coalition government in Berlin. Even lawmakers within Merz’s conservative party (CDU) disowned his comments.

It seems, therefore, that the 69-year-old Merz, a former corporate lawyer, was speaking without engaging his brain.

The supply of Taurus missiles is a taboo subject in Germany. The previous government under Olaf Scholz ruled out providing Ukraine with the long-range weapon precisely because of fears that such a move would ramp up the proxy war in Ukraine to an all-out war between the NATO bloc and Russia. It also has obscene connotations given the 80th anniversary earlier this month marking the defeat of Nazi Germany.

Merz’s comments seem to have been rashly made without understanding the implications. The push-back from within his own government could mean his shaky coalition collapsing if he dares to proceed with the idea.

Furthermore, what the foolish chancellor is actually revealing is how weak European leaders are. Merz is trying to compete with France’s Emmanuel Macron and the British Prime Minister Kier Starmer in a pathetic contest to see who can be the toughest against Russia.

Merz announced this week an additional €5 billion in military aid to Ukraine while hosting Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in Berlin. The chancellor vowed to back Ukraine for as long as it takes in the proxy war against Russia. He even predicted that the conflict would continue for the long term. In short, diplomacy and peace are anathema to this robotic Russophobe.

The timing of Merz’s long-range provocation comes as Russia and Ukraine are about to hold their second round of negotiations in Istanbul next week on finding a diplomatic resolution to the more than three-year conflict.

Diplomatic efforts are at a delicate stage. Moscow has consistently stated that it wants to negotiate a lasting solution for peace and security in Europe.

The United States, under the Trump administration, has engaged with Russia to explore diplomatic efforts to end the proxy war.

President Trump’s scaling down of US military involvement and his personal pressure on Zelensky have forced the Kiev regime to come to the table.

However, the Europeans are playing a dirty game of undermining diplomacy by giving succor to the Kiev regime by promising more military aid.

Britain, France and Germany have talked about a “coalition of the willing” to keep backing Ukraine militarily. Such talk has faded in recent weeks because the Europeans do not have the military or political strength without Washington to go it alone.

Nevertheless, the Europeans are still able to exert an influence on sabotaging peace talks by indulging Kiev’s fantasies about “defending Europe from Russian aggression.”

Merz’s rhetoric about permitting long-range strikes on Russia and his teasing comments about delivering Taurus missiles are part of the charade being played by European has-been politicians trying to appear purposeful and strong.

Let’s face it, they need all the help they can get for their tough image-making. Macron gets his face jabbed in public by his wife stepping off a plane, while Starmer is coping with a vendetta from cheated rent boys burning his property.

Merz, the rich corporate lawyer who can’t fix Germany’s broken economy, has an additional fetish. Like his Nazi grandfather, the brownshirt mayor of Brilon who renamed streets for Hitler and Goering, Herr Merz has inherited an obsession to defeat Russia.

The trouble is, these effete, elite Europeans are running the risk of starting a nuclear world war with their puny games.

As Russia’s top diplomat, Sergey Lavrov, reminded this week, Germany has destroyed Europe twice over the past century out of warmongering imperialist fantasies. British and French machinations also had a helping hand in that destruction.

The elitist ruling class learn nothing from history. The people of Europe must not allow them to play their dirty games again.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... diplomacy/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Jun 01, 2025 12:36 pm

Pax Europaea from sanctions
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 01/06/2025

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“There is real concern that the US president will make good on his threat and abandon his role as mediator by failing to get Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table,” The Telegraph wrote yesterday , adhering to the most catastrophic possible scenario. This vision stems from Donald Trump's evident weariness with negotiations that he naively hoped would be simple in resolving a war he considers “stupid” and whose complexity he doesn't bother to understand. However, this fear contrasts with the triumphalism that continues to sustain the European Union's rhetoric, very similar to that of Britain, which presents a Russia in decline and on the verge of collapse as opposed to a continent on the rise. “What's coming next: Europe up (with defense capabilities); Russia down (materially and politically); the United States out (preparing withdrawal); Ukraine in (preparing urgent defense integration with Europe),” European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius stated in a post published on social media to describe what he calls Pax Europaea . His speech seeks to appeal to Europe's celebrated strategic autonomy , to continental unity in support of Ukraine and confrontation with Russia, and to the success of the rearmament policy. Yet, European countries have been unable to implement the ultimatum they imposed on Russia and continue to beg the United States to remain involved in the Ukrainian issue.

“Ukrainian officials admit that European support only goes so far. ‘It will be extremely difficult without the Americans,’ a senior Ukrainian official told Veronika Melkozerova, who requested anonymity so she could speak candidly about the talks. The official added that Kiev’s new strategy has been ‘to say what Trump wants to hear’ in an attempt to keep him in the negotiations,” The Wall Street Journal wrote last week , admitting a strategy that has been evident for months and that both Ukraine and Russia are using in this diplomatic game to guarantee themselves a better position whether the United States remains involved or not. Trump’s support implies, should the United States continue in the diplomatic process, the possibility of achieving better conditions for resolving the conflict, but it would be even more important if, discouraged and bored, the American leader leaves the war and the post-war period in the hands of European countries. In that case, being seen as the party that has not hindered the peace process would imply negative conditions for the other side. As the Kellogg-Fleitz plan clearly spelled out, the consequence would be to deny military supplies to kyiv if Ukraine is deemed to have refused to negotiate, and to increase them if Russia is blamed.

After months of calling this war a bad thing, it's hard to imagine a massive increase in US shipments of arms and ammunition to kyiv, although a U-turn on Donald Trump's attitude is also possible. However, it's much more likely that, if the White House believes the Kremlin is rejecting negotiations or is not negotiating in good faith, the US response will be to leave everything related to Ukraine in the hands of European countries and limit its input to a sharp increase in sanctions against Russia.

In this game, in which all parties claim to speak from a desire to seek peace and the need to find a way to achieve it, a well-known figure, Lindsey Graham, has gained relevance. He is famous for his visits to the front lines during the Donbass war, during which, together with his inseparable John McCain, he sought a tougher policy against Russia for violating the Minsk Agreement, which kyiv refused to implement. Always willing to choose the path of threats against his enemy, the Republican senator has become the European Union's main ally in its attempt to force Donald Trump to abandon the path of offering Russia incentives to negotiate and return to the original idea of ​​escalating threats and the promise that new sanctions will achieve what the previous seventeen sanctions packages failed to achieve.

“No matter how pleased the European Union is with each new restriction, the EU cannot single-handedly paralyze Russia’s war machine,” wrote former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba in the latest issue of Foreign Policy . “Asked by Politico whether the United States agreed to the new round of sanctions, von der Leyen said she was ‘in close contact with Senator Graham,’ the Republican US senator who is a harsh critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin,” the US outlet wrote a few days ago. “We are broadly aligned on where the sanctions should fall,” von der Leyen added, without making it entirely clear whether she was referring to the Republican hawk or the United States in general.

In any case, Graham has become a key interlocutor for the European Union in its attempt to present diplomacy as absolutely stagnant, useless, and impossible unless accompanied by severe threats that the European Union's rearmament and strategic autonomy cannot implement without the help of the United States. Lindsey Graham's value lies in his proven belligerence and his manifest hatred of all things Russian, but above all, in his proven ability to influence Donald Trump. "This war is about money... the richest country in all of Europe in rare earth minerals is Ukraine, worth between $2 and $7 trillion... so Donald Trump is going to make a deal to get our money back and enrich us with rare earths," he stated in an appearance on Fox News when his objective was to use Ukraine's mineral resources—real or imagined—to attract the attention of the US president and interest him in the economic implications that involvement in Ukraine could have for the United States beyond the war. Their efforts were rewarded with an economic exploitation agreement, the terms of which are not fully known, but which will give the United States access to a share of the revenue from mineral extraction in Ukraine in the future.

Graham's current mission, who, along with John McCain's replacement, Democratic Senator Sidney Blumenthal, has been working on the legislation for weeks, is to get Donald Trump to adopt the path of threats to force Russia to negotiate on Ukraine's terms. To this end, not only are the senators working, but also a media campaign that has recently resulted in two op-eds published by The Washington Post , appealing to two different groups of people, both senators but of different political persuasions. Graham's objective, which von der Leyen has enthusiastically embraced, is to pass legislation that would impose 500% tariffs on countries that work with sanctioned Russian banks or that purchase Russian products such as oil, gas, or uranium (interestingly, one of those countries is the United States). The law, which Graham and Blumenthal say has the support of 82 senators, essentially seeks to economically isolate Russia, based on the understanding that energy products are its main export and, therefore, a source of revenue. It is based on the assumption that not even its Chinese ally will risk these US sanctions. The measures proposed by Graham, while there is no certainty that the United States would be able to implement them, also fail to take into account the impact that the sudden elimination of one of the major producers could have on the global oil market.

The uncertainty surrounding the United States' ability to impose the equivalent of the Cuban embargo on a country the size of Russia is irrelevant when the legislation is primarily intended as a pressure tool for both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. "As of Thursday afternoon, Graham's legislation had 82 sponsors: 41 Republicans (including Graham), 40 Democrats, and one Democratic-aligned independent. The senators who are not co-sponsors are 12 Republicans, five Democrats, and one Democratic-aligned independent," writes George Will, a regular columnist for The Washington Post , in the first article, in which he asks the other senators "what they're thinking." His argument is primarily aimed at the Democratic and non-Trumpist Republican wings, and, highlighting the value of bipartisan action, he presents the law promoted by Graham and Blumenthal as an opportunity to reassert the power of the legislature in the foreign policy arena and thus pressure the executive branch. And understanding internationalism as interventionism, Will concludes that "Graham has unfurled the banner of his comrade-in-arms John McCain, a staunch defender of American and Republican internationalism. He was his party's presidential candidate 17 years ago. The support for Graham's legislation, especially from the recently inert Senate Republicans, gives new reason to hope that William Faulkner was right: 'The past is never dead. It's not even past.'" Interventionism must continue, as must the escalation of threats to Moscow.

In a similarly threatening tone, but directed at senators who support Donald Trump's policies, Marc Thiessen, who in the past has used his columns to lobby for increased military supplies to Ukraine (not as a donation, but as a business relationship), advocate for the seizure of Russian assets held in the European Union, or defend the mineral extraction agreement, advocates passing the bill quickly, though not necessarily sending it to the White House for ratification. "This would dramatically increase Trump's leverage with Putin, giving him a sword of Damocles to hang over the head of the Russian leader, backed by an overwhelming bipartisan majority in Congress. It would empower Trump and strengthen his leverage in the negotiations by giving him the power to impose crippling sanctions against Russia at a time of his choosing. And it would underscore that the United States is politically united with Trump in its support for this approach," Thiessen writes.

Everything these days is about showing unity, whether real or not, and about significantly increasing the level of threats.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/01/pax-e ... sanciones/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad

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On the liquidation of consequences in the Bryansk region.

1. The final figures for the victims are 7 dead, 71 injured (including several seriously, including a child). All victims are receiving the necessary medical care.

2. The explosion was a terrorist attack. The authorities will establish how and when exactly the bridge was mined. The explosion was aimed at causing a large number of casualties among civilians. A criminal case has been opened on the fact of the terrorist attack.

3. The rubble at the site of the bridge collapse has already begun to be dismantled. It will take some time to clear the tracks from the fallen span, remove the derailed cars and replace the track bed.

4. This terrorist attack once again raises the question of organizing the necessary measures in the Bryansk region. I have already written on this topic more than once - I am sure that if we begin to check the issues of building fortifications in the border areas, the organization of the Bryansk BARS, as well as counter-terrorism measures in the region, a lot of interesting things will come to light. As it turned out in the Kursk region, when the debriefing began after the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is also worth noting that important infrastructure facilities in frontline regions must be taken under protection, methods of ensuring the protection of bridges have been well known since the Great Patriotic War, when there were even separate NKVD divisions that were engaged in ensuring the protection of railways and bridges.

5. The question of countermeasures lies in the plane of continuing and intensifying attacks on enemy infrastructure and continuing offensive operations with the liberation of territory and populated areas. Well, and destroying five bridges in a day is quite within the capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces.

P.S. In the Kursk region, as a result of the blowing up of a bridge, 3 people were injured. There, the consequences will be easier to eliminate.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – May 31, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
May 31, 2025

Sumy Direction

From the Russian Ministry of Defense report: Units of the "North" military group, through decisive actions, have liberated the settlement of Vodolaghi in Sumy Oblast.

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Буферная Зона=Buffer Zone. ЛБС 31.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 31st, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

The village of Vodolaghi is located 2 km from the Russian border, with a population of approximately 200. The Vladimirovka-Belovody rocade (lateral road, parallel to the front) runs through the village, which is now fully under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

After eliminating an Armed Forces of Ukraine stronghold that was behind AFU lines, the command of the Russian Armed Forces group will likely employ the proven "swing" tactic. By alternating strikes on different sectors—Loknya-Yunakovka, Belovody-Yablonovka, Vodolaghi-Novonikolaevka, Vladimirovka-Alekseevka, as well as potentially in the center at Oleshnya-Yunakovka and Gornal-Miropolye (“Gornal” spelled “Hornal” on the map, and Miropolye is not translated. Look southwest of Guevo for these two settlements.)—they will destabilize the enemy's defenses, forcing them to maneuver along the line of combat contact. This will allow the Russian forces to destroy the enemy during maneuvers, exhaust them, and then advance on key high ground and critical sectors to drive wedges into their defenses. Subsequently, by widening the flanks, these wedges will be connected into a consolidated line. This tactic has been observed since the beginning of the buffer zone's creation in this direction.

South Donetsk Direction

From the Russian Ministry of Defense report: Servicemen of the "East" Group have liberated the settlement of Novopol in the DPR.

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Разграничительная Линия Направлений=Dividing Line of the Directions. ЛБС 31.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 31st, 2025. Участки Активности=Area of Activity.

On 28.05.25, our forces liberated the settlement of Zelenoe Pole. At that time, we suggested that the next objective of the Russian Armed Forces would be the AFU fortified area in Temirovka, located on the demarcation line between the Donetsk and Zaporozhye sectors.

To secure this objective, it was necessary to take control of Novopol, located to the south. Control over Novopol allows access, via the V. Novosyolka-Gulyai Pole (Hulyaipole) rocade, to the commanding heights of the area, with an advance toward the right flank of the AFU's Temirovka defensive zone.

These actions alleviate pressure on our forces in the Shevchenko settlement area, forcing the enemy to redeploy their units from there to the Temirovka sector and increasing their burden further west, in the Gulyai Pole-Temirovka sector. The AFU will need to take measures to contain the Russian Armed Forces' advance along the rocade toward Novoivanovka.

Securing Novoivanovka would give the Russian Armed Forces an advantage in fire control over the Yanchul River valley, where the Solenaya River tributary flows into it. This advantage threatens the rear of the AFU's Olgovskoye-Poltavka defensive area.

As for which of the two objectives—Temirovka or Novoivanovka—will take priority, this depends on the operational situation and the intent of the Russian General Staff (which, of course, we do not know). We will see in the near future...

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ay-31-2025

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May 30, 2025 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Trump won’t walk away from Ukraine war

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President Donald Trump: Bracing for a longer Ukraine war

One of the mysteries of the Ukraine endgame is that President Donald Trump did not issue an executive order on January 20 withdrawing all support for Ukraine. That would have been the easiest way to end the war.

The conditions were propitious — Candidate Trump didn’t mince words that it was a hopeless war that cost the US dearly in treasure; he thought poorly of President Volodymyr Zelensky as a shameless free rider; he saw the war as impeding his foreign-policy priority of the US’ transition to a multipolar world order; and, he felt no compulsion to inherit ‘Biden’s war’.

But instead, Trump plunged himself with gusto into the Ukraine question, although Washington lacked the means to leverage Russia to compromise on its core interests in what Russian people regarded as an existential war.

Quite possibly, some of Trump’s advisors prevailed upon him to undertake the theatrical diplomatic effort on the basis of a flawed reading of the state of play in the war. Trump believed that western sanctions lethally weakened the Russian economy; that Russia’s casualty figures ran into hundreds of thousands and such a high level of attrition was unsustainable; that Zelensky would sign up on the dotted line; that an improvement in Russian-American relationship would be a ‘win-win’ with massive economic benefits accruing to both sides and so on.

But all these premises turned out to be wrong notions. Putin has steered the economy to a state of permanent western sanctions (which was the Soviet experience, too). Russian entrepreneurs have successfully replaced the fleeing western businesses in the wake of sanctions and will now resist any re-entry by the latter.

Russia’s casualty figures are much lower than the self-serving western estimates put it, as the high level of recruitment to the army suggests. Zelensky is bent on prolonging the war with support from European powers per Biden’s script to ‘Trump-proof’ the war. Europeans not only have a Plan B but have collaborators within the US some of who may even be in Trump’s team.

Suffice to say, Trump has been on a learning curve, as he began sensing that the Kremlin is determined to realise the objectives it had set for itself (as outlined in Putin’s historic speech last June at the foreign ministry). According to a Reuters report two days ago, “Putin wants a ‘written’ pledge by major Western powers not to enlarge the US-led NATO alliance eastwards — shorthand for formally ruling out membership to not only Ukraine and Georgia and Moldova and other former Soviet republics as well.”

“Russia also wants Ukraine to be neutral, some Western sanctions lifted, a resolution of the issue of frozen Russian sovereign assets in the West, and protection for Russian speakers in Ukraine” — per Reuters.

Europeans will scoff at such demands. Therefore, as things stand, a breakthrough at the Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul on June 2 seems unlikely. Unsurprisingly, Russia is pressing ahead with an offensive campaign in all directions, throwing in all its forces with a culmination planned for summer or early autumn.

The least bad option

Trump has three options under the circumstances. One is to simply refuse to own responsibility for the war and walk away for good. But then, can Trump deny his own part in it during 2016-2020, in his first term? While Trump administration identified its approach to foreign policy as ‘principled realism’, late Joseph Nye’s characterisation of Trump as an “idiosyncratic realist” was perhaps closer to the truth.

The official administration policy on Ukraine during Trump’s first term was a continuation of the policy pursued by the Obama administration. It recognised Crimea as part of Ukraine, condemned Russia’s occupation and eventual annexation annexation of the peninsula; it underscored Russia’s primary responsibility for the instigation, continuation and conduct of the conflict in eastern Ukraine; it even identified the Russian interference in Ukraine as part of a wider pattern of aggression towards other states and as proof of Moscow’s challenge to the fundamental principles of international order.

For these reasons, the Trump administration maintained that the US should help Ukraine to defend itself and should penalise Russia both through sanctions and diplomatic isolation (eg., membership of the G7). Curiously, shades of this thought process resurface even today occasionally in Trump’s Truth Social outbursts. Trump seems unaware he’s carrying a can of worms as his Ukraine legacy.

So, the second option today is to convey Trump’s dissatisfaction over Russia’s perceived intransigence in dictating terms for settlement and its alleged lack of interest in peace talks. Trump even hinted at Russia’s hidden agenda to conquer Ukraine. Trump is hinting at punishing Russia both through sanctions and supplying weapons to Ukraine. German chancellor Friedrich Merz’s provocative announcement of giving long-range weapons to Zelensky was probably green lighted by some people in Trump’s team. After all, Merz is no stranger to Wall Street.

However, this is recipe for an extremely dangerous NATO – Russia confrontation. If long range German missiles hit Russia, Russia will retaliate in a way that could potentially cripple NATO’s operational readiness in a hypothetical war. Belarus State Secretary of Security Council Alexander Volfovich has said Oreshnik missile system is “planned to be stationed in Belarus by the end of the year. The locations for its deployment have already been determined. Work is under way.” The spectre of World War III may seem bit of a stretch, but Trump will have to consider the dangers of climbing the escalation ladder, which could destroy his MAGA presidency.

Washington has no means to intimidate the Kremlin. The bottom line is, Trump is actually left with only a third option, the least bad option — viz., walking away from the Ukraine conflict at this point and return when the war has been lost and won, possibly by the end of the year. This will not damage Trump’s reputation.

Trump may already be displaying his credentials as ‘peacemaker president’ if the US-Iran talks, which seem to be making progress, results in a nuclear deal. Besides, US-Russia normalisation needs more time to gain traction. Senator Lindsey Graham’s hard-hitting sanctions bill against Russia with 81 co-sponsors in the senate signals that Russia is a very toxic subject in the US domestic politics.

Also, Russia-Ukraine talks is only one track. The Russians have sensitised Trump’s team that while Moscow engages with Kiev, the root cause of the war — absence of a European security architecture — still remains to be addressed, which is something that only Russia and the US can work out jointly. The US shouldn’t shirk its responsibility, being both the original instigator of NATO expansion and sponsor of the Ukraine war.

The reaction by the US special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg has been positive when he told ABC News in an interview that the US understands that it is a matter of national security for Russia that NATO may stop accepting new Eastern European countries into its ranks — ie., not only Ukraine but Moldova and Georgia as well.

Kellogg said he considered the Russian side’s concerns to be justified. He did not rule out the possibility of reaching an agreement during negotiations between the US and Russia. This is a big step forward.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/trump-w ... raine-war/

Kellogg is a moron whose words should be dismissed out of hand. It occurs to me that many of these diplomacy types are like entrepreneurs in that they tend to only see the positive they want to see. Lavrov is a couple levels above that.

As to why Trump didn't dump Ukraine on Day One: he is hypoallergic to being called a loser(or taco), he wants that Nobel and someone told him he might make some money. Considering that shyster any kind of statesman is really poor judgement.

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There will be no new Minsk
May 31, 17:11

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There will be no new Minsk

Yesterday, the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN Security Council, Nebenzya, once again indicated that Russia will not agree to a new Minsk (conditional Minsk-3) and a freeze on the LBS.

Because if we agree to this, the ceasefire will be used as an operational pause, during which the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be replenished through forced mobilization, strengthen their current positions, receive additional assistance from NATO and resume hostilities at a convenient moment.
This can easily be done through a series of conventional shelling, as was the case during Minsk-1 and Minsk-2. There are no control mechanisms that could prevent such a scenario. That is why they are offering this to us, and we have consistently refused.

So, at least in words, the lessons of Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 have been learned by the Russian authorities and now the diplomatic position of the Russian Federation is many times tougher than it was during the Minsk agreements. Now Russia really speaks the language of ultimatums, which is facilitated by the situation on the front - in addition to Donbass, the offensive in Sumy Oblast is successfully developing (today Vodolahy and Alekseyevka were liberated, battles are underway for Yunakovka) plus Syrsky announced today that the Russian Armed Forces have launched an offensive operation in Zaporizhzhya Oblast. Ultimately, if the enemy refuses the rather modest conditions put forward by Russia (minus 4 regions), then by autumn this demand may be transformed into 5 regions. Russian officials talk about this quite openly.

Europe's threats in general do not make much of an impression. Europe is marked as an enemy that cannot maintain its own red lines. As a result, if earlier they joked about Russia's brown lines with empty threats to respond, now they ridicule the impotence of the European Union, which threatens Russia with terrible punishments and puts forward ultimatums that Russia demonstratively ignores. All this is a consequence of separate negotiations with the US, which allowed Russia to direct the negotiations in a favorable direction and exclude Europe from them (this is also a lesson from Minsk-2, where France and Germany used the "freeze" to prepare for war).

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will begin in Istanbul in the first half of June 2. The Russian delegation will be waiting for the Ukrainian delegation in the morning. The US, in turn, is putting pressure on Kiev so that they do not think about jumping out. There will be no representatives of Europe at the negotiations. As I wrote back in 2014, the only negotiations on the merits of Ukraine are possible only with the Americans. Any negotiations on Ukraine without the US are doomed to failure, since the US can easily torpedo any agreements through Ukraine, but at the same time, if the US considers the agreements beneficial for itself, it can force both Ukraine and Europe to accept these agreements if there is desire and political will. The US has the capacity for coercion.
Therefore, the borders of 1991 and 2022 are no longer remembered - the situation has entered the stage of a separate bargaining between the US and the Russian Federation, which Europe and Ukraine are trying to disrupt.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9871784.html

Combat use of laser weapons by the Russian Armed Forces
May 31, 12:59

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The future has arrived.
Footage of the combat use of a Russian laser system against a Ukrainian aircraft-type drone.
Footage from a training ground where a combat laser burns through a metal plate is also presented.

(Video at link.)

The combat laser is used by the special forces unit "Nomad", which specializes in hunting enemy UAVs and has a very high efficiency.
Well, the SVO thus became the first war where our army used laser weapons in combat conditions.
War is the engine of progress.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9871275.html

Attack on strategic aviation airfields
June 1, 14:48

[mg]https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonel ... 74_900.jpg[/img]

Of course, after calculating the losses, and they are obviously significant, questions will arise again:

1. Strengthening the air defense system. Not only from aircraft-type drones, but also from FPV drones. Especially since there was already an experience of such an attack in Machulishchi, where an A-50 was damaged. Obviously, the security at the airfield was not ready for this type of attack.

2. Strengthening counterintelligence and counterterrorism measures.
The enemy was able to prepare and carry out a comprehensive operation on our territory. This is a clear failure of the special services that allowed this.

3. The drone revolution is not over yet.
It is necessary to take into account that the options for using kamikaze attack drones will only increase in the future. The possibility of using drones from hidden carriers (containers, ships with containers, trucks) is not know-how - all this has been known since the mid-10s. For those who have been following this direction of development of attack UAVs at all.

4. Of course, there will be a search for those responsible for what happened, heads will roll. Negligence is too expensive. This will not bring back the lost planes, but someone will be punished.

5. I hope that the military-political leadership will find a way to respond with dignity. The blow must be painful.

6. SMERSH is needed. Specifically, with the powers of SMERSH. Just as the death penalty for aiding the SBU and the GUR MOU is needed.

7. While we are waging a limited war, the enemy is waging a total war, the goal of which is to destroy our country and people. And no peace talks will change this. The longer this goes on, the more unpleasant surprises there will be.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9873166.html

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Offensive to the South: Liberation of Vodolagh and the Situation in the Borderlands of Sumy Oblast
May 31, 2025
Rybar

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In the Sumy direction, Russian troops are gradually advancing in the border areas of the so-called Ukraine. At the same time, the situation near Tetkino has been stabilized, which has allowed more resources to be used in the offensive in other areas.

Today it became known that the village of Vodolaga , which had been fought for for over a month, came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces. Attacks by Russian attack aircraft were also noted in the Gornal area .

More about the situation on the site
Last week, Russian troops liberated Vladimirovka and Belovody , which allowed them to semi-encircle Ukrainian formations in Vodolaghy .

Today, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the liberation of the village. Apparently, after cutting off supply routes and bringing in reserves, the remnants of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were driven out of the southern outskirts of the village.

In the Gornali area , according to some reports, the Russian Armed Forces are probing the enemy's defenses. The main target will probably be Miropolye , an important transport hub for the Ukrainian Armed Forces group in the border area of ​​Sumy Oblast .

The command faces two possible options for advancement: either forcing the Psel River to reach the northwestern outskirts of the settlement, or attacking Alexandria with subsequent movement to the northeastern part of Miropolye .

Messages are circulating on the Internet about the alleged direct presence of the Russian Armed Forces in Alexandria and battles on the outskirts of Miropolye . According to the most optimistic statements, Russian troops are already in Zapselye .

These reports are also based on data from enemy media resources, which in the last few days have actually begun to publish reports bordering on panic about the dire situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area.

However, it is not worth relying on them when analyzing the situation - it is quite possible that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing the ground for another “information victory”, during which they will “regain” control over the supposedly lost villages.

https://rybar.ru/nastuplenie-na-yug-osv ... j-oblasti/

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Jun 02, 2025 11:53 am

Blow up the bridges
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 02/06/2025

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The second meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Turkey, again called for today by the Russian side after announcing the readiness of its peace memorandum, the term sheet demanded by Ukraine, the United States, and especially General Keith Kellogg, is taking place in a context of similar, or even greater, confusion and controversy than that of two weeks ago, with only one positive sign: the largest prisoner exchange since the war began. Not even the images of dozens of elderly people, evidently civilians, handed over by Ukraine as the civilian party to the exchange (in which Moscow and Kiev have handed over, according to their own confirmation, the same number of civilians as soldiers) have tainted the significant return of a large number of soldiers, the main breakthrough represented by the contact two weeks ago in Istanbul. Without resorting to agreeing to a prisoner exchange, a common tool when the parties have sought to demonstrate progress in negotiations without making concessions or entering into political issues, today's meeting is taking place in an environment of tension and pressure for both sides.

The last two weeks have seen both a verbal and military escalation that makes direct diplomacy more difficult—and possibly even more necessary—and possibly indirect. Each with its own resources, and always keeping in mind that successes on the front lines are the most tangible demonstration of force to use as a tool of pressure, Moscow and kyiv have tried to move their pieces to arrive at the meeting with the greatest possible number of arguments. The words of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, ambiguous about the possibility of supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine and stirring up trouble by stating that Ukraine no longer faces restrictions on the use of Western weapons in the Russian Federation—something that actually happened last fall—are a prime example of this. Germany's role during this interim period between the two meetings is representative of Europe's role and its positions.

After throwing the stone, Merz sought to hide his hand without actually withdrawing the escalation scenario and this week will meet with Donald Trump at the White House to discuss, among other issues, the issue of aid to Ukraine. Despite the way in which Merz heightened tensions with Russia last week, prompting warning statements from Moscow, which claimed that Germany could be a legitimate Russian target in the event of a Taurus missile supply, Berlin has also admitted that Western objectives in Ukraine were unrealistic. This was confirmed by Annalena Baerbock's successor, Johann Wadephul, who stated that "from the beginning, it was clear that this war would likely end through negotiations. One thing is certain: a total defeat in the sense of Russia's capitulation, especially given its nuclear arsenal, was never a realistic expectation. In that sense, we are now being a little more honest." However, these more realistic objectives still include the idea of ​​allowing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia from a position of strength, something that would entail the military and economic escalation with which Moscow is currently threatened.

Although Ukraine has demonstrated its extensive capacity to harm Russia in its rear, the situation at the front has shown in recent days that the initiative is firmly in Russia's hands. This is evidenced by Russia's ability to advance in several directions on the main front while increasing attacks on the rear, causing Ukrainian air defenses difficulties it lacked just a few months ago. Russia does not have allies in this war capable of exerting pressure on third countries, threatening to impose secondary sanctions, granting loans and subsidies to sustain the state forever, or continuing to supply weapons with the aim of fighting until a position of strength can be negotiated . The soft power that Russia is currently capable of projecting in Ukraine is practically zero, so the manifestation of Russian power today is limited to the military aspect. Hence, there cannot be, as there were in March 2022, military concessions in advance. Under conditions of military inferiority and with the evident shortage of weapons that makes Russian airstrikes do much more damage than a few months ago, it is Ukraine that would exclusively benefit from a temporary ceasefire like the one demanded by kyiv and its European allies.

From the Kursk region, Vladimir Putin mentioned the need to create a buffer zone in the Sumi region. At the time, Ukraine denied any Russian presence in the oblast and insisted on its role in the Kursk region. However, just two days later, local authorities confirmed the Russian capture of several villages and the progress of Moscow's troops. At the end of the week, Ukraine ordered the mandatory evacuation of a dozen small towns in the border area. The Russian action cannot be considered an offensive seeking to capture territory, but rather an attempt to pin down Ukrainian troops and avoid situations like the one that occurred last August in Kursk, which took Russia months to reverse.

Kursk, which was supposed to be an important negotiating card for Zelensky, was lost to Ukraine when its logistical supply lines were undermined by the Russian counteroffensive. Having recaptured every single Russian town that kyiv had captured at some point, Moscow declared the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region over. Despite this reality, on Saturday, Volodymyr Zelensky insisted once again that “the war must extend to Russian territory… I will first highlight the assault regiments operating in the Kursk region – they are the 33rd, 225th, and 425th assault regiments. The 103rd Brigade is also among the best in this regard.”

Despite the peace rhetoric that both sides have been forced to maintain since the United States raised this demand as the basis of its relations with kyiv and Moscow, neither country has renounced military action as a tool to gain strength, demand concessions from its opponent, and deny those it demands. Yesterday, with hardly any interceptions, Russia once again attacked targets with a handful of missiles and several hundred drones, yet another of several airstrikes that have angered Keith Kellogg, who has tirelessly issued "ceasefire now" orders in his posts, and Donald Trump. On Friday, Trump expressed disappointment and surprise. “I've seen things that really surprised me: rocket fire at cities like Kyiv during a negotiation that I felt was about to be finalized. We were going to resolve a problem, and suddenly, rockets were fired at a couple of cities and people were killed. I saw things that surprised me, and I don't like to be surprised. So I'm very disappointed in that sense,” he said, focusing only on the Russian attacks and not on the equally increasing use of Ukrainian drones against Russian, not always military, targets.

In his lack of interest in the Ukrainian conflict, the US president insists on seeking a quick solution that is simply not possible. Trump's words describe a situation in which peace was just around the corner, derailed by a series of Russian attacks that have delayed it. As the various dialogue processes that have failed to lead to peace over the past eleven years—Geneva in 2014, Minsk between 2015 and 2022, and Istanbul after the Russian invasion of Ukraine—show, no agreement can be reached in a single meeting or with the ease that Donald Trump expected and continues to demand. Distrust between the parties is at its peak, and this is not only due to Western reluctance to take Russia at its word, but also extends to Moscow, which recalls the experience of the Minsk process, its endless negotiations, and Ukraine's lack of will to implement the only peace agreement signed during this conflict.

“Last Monday night, Ukraine attacked the Crimean bridge again (it had already done so in 2022), vital for Russia because it connects it to the annexed peninsula. ‘Blowing up bridges’—isn’t that what these two countries have been doing since 2014?” commented a July 2023 article in La Vanguardia . Bridges, both physical and symbolic, have been a common target throughout this war. During the Donbass phase of the war, the demolished Putilovka Bridge was one of the best-known images of Donetsk, as was the Stanitsa Luganskaya Bridge, which Ukraine refused to repair for years. The objective was twofold, as the bridge was not only a physical link between the areas under the control of the LPR or Ukraine, but also separated two populations that ideologically had to be kept separate.

Unlike the Crimean Bridge, which kyiv tried to destroy twice, or the Antonovsky Bridge, which enabled the logistical supply of Russian troops while they were still on the right bank of the Dnieper in Kherson, the bridges over the Dnieper have never been attacked. Resuming its sabotage mission, yesterday the Ukrainian GUR claimed responsibility for the destruction of a bridge in the Melitopol area, Zaporozhye region, a more easily acknowledged target than the demolitions of three bridges in Bryansk and Kursk, which caused significant damage and a high number of casualties. There, too, there is a precedent directly linked to Budanov's military intelligence. In the winter of 2023, a group of Bratstvo soldiers linked to the GUR were ambushed while carrying out an operation to blow up a train in the Russian region of Bryansk. The operation failed, although the sabotage has continued. Ukraine has even claimed responsibility for blowing up the railway line connecting the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of Korea.

These precedents, and the Zaporozhye incident admitted by kyiv's military intelligence, quickly led to attention turning to Ukraine when Russia announced three railway incidents yesterday, one in Kursk and two in Bryansk. In the Kursk region, an explosion brought down a bridge over which a freight train was passing, which then derailed. The most serious incident, however, occurred in the Bryansk region, where an explosion blew up a bridge under which a passenger train was due to pass. Local Russian authorities reported at least 69 people injured, including three minors, and the deaths of seven civilians. According to Russian authorities, the train on the Klimovo-Moscow route was carrying 388 people. Although Russia initially pointed directly to enemy sabotage and terrorist attacks, the terminology was later downgraded due to the lack of an investigation into the causes.

Twenty-four hours after a meeting in which Ukraine had remained ambivalent about its participation throughout the week, yesterday's military escalation is evident. The GUR attack in Zaporozhye and the possible Ukrainian involvement in the destruction of railway bridges in the border regions were not the most serious events on Russian territory on Sunday.

In the operation, claimed by the SBU, extremely important bases for the conduct of the war were hit, such as Olenya (Murmansk), where the damage was greatest, Ivanovo, and Belaya (Iskutsk, more than 4,000 kilometers from the border). According to the information that has emerged, Ukraine used FPV drones launched from a truck in nearby territory for the attack. The published images show direct hits on Russian strategic aviation, an essential and finite resource. Although losses have yet to be counted, the images clearly show that they were very high. Any destruction of strategic aircraft—and it is evident that several aircraft were destroyed—is a significant loss, but it is even more so when the attacks are against strategic bombers, part of the nuclear triad, a considerable escalation in the level of warfare. At the Engels military base, all aircraft took off to avoid exposure to the Ukrainian attack, which demonstrated the relative ease with which infrastructure can be attacked using simple FPV drones and also Russia's shortcomings when it comes to defending its strategic military bases.

Proud of the success of its operation, the SBU yesterday afternoon revealed some details of a plan that took more than a year and a half to complete. According to Ukrainian civilian intelligence, the FPV drones were first transported to Russian territory, where they were subsequently camouflaged in prefabricated wooden houses whose roofs fell at the appointed time to allow the unmanned aircraft to take flight.

Faced with the authorities' silence for hours, media outlets like Rybar demanded answers and a reaction. "This is, without exaggeration, a very severe blow to the strategic component, caused both by serious miscalculations in the work of the special services and by a careless attitude toward the aviation assets, which even after all the attacks remained in open fields without shelters," it wrote, adding that this was not the first attack on strategic aviation. "Let us recall the old question: is building a shelter more expensive than building a new aircraft whose production has long been discontinued? The sad answer is already here," it added, recalling that Russia should have protected its military bases long ago.

In an interview published by Süddeutsche Zeitung , the German Foreign Minister, referring to the Russian hybrid attacks , stated that he “would avoid using the term ‘war,’ but we are no longer in a clear peace situation. We must find new methods to deal with this.” Wadephul wondered, “Do we have the right to take action against this? Do we have the right to defend ourselves? This must be resolved. We must be able to fully defend ourselves.” After yesterday’s extremely heavy bombing, which came too close to an attack capable of triggering Russian nuclear doctrine, Moscow may be asking itself the same question. The subtext of the Ukrainian attack is a way of reminding Russia that it went to war claiming its security was being compromised by NATO expansion and now, three years later, not only has it failed to prevent this, but has demonstrated that even its nuclear triad has been exposed.

If tensions were already high at the start of the day, the developments portend an uncertain future for the war, and especially for the meeting scheduled for today. In the afternoon, Russia confirmed that its delegation was on its way to Istanbul to participate in the meeting. And after the attack, feeling militarily stronger, Ukraine confirmed what was evident, and its negotiating team will also visit Turkey, as the United States has demanded.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/02/volar-los-puentes/

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed his condolences to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in connection with the victims of the explosions of railway infrastructure in the Bryansk and Kursk regions (c) Russian Foreign Ministry

Your condolences are very important to you.

***

Colonelcassad
CBS, citing a source in the White House, reported that Ukraine did not notify the US about the attack on Russian airfields. Earlier, American media, citing an anonymous Ukrainian source, reported that Ukraine had allegedly notified the US about the planned attack.
This statement about notification has just been disavowed.

***

Colonelcassad
Official statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding the attack on strategic aviation airfields.

Today, the Kiev regime committed a terrorist attack using FPV drones against airfields in the Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions.

At military airfields in the Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions, all terrorist attacks were repelled.

In the Murmansk and Irkutsk regions, as a result of the launch of FPV drones from the territory located in the immediate vicinity of the airfields, several units of aircraft caught fire.

The fires have been extinguished.
There are no casualties among military personnel or civilian personnel.

Some of the participants in the terrorist attacks have been detained.

***

Colonelcassad
0:51
And more footage of the Tu-95 bomber being hit by an FPV drone.

The signal is stable.
There are no shelters.
There are no nets.

Judging by everything, the electronic warfare either didn't work or couldn't jam the signal of these drones. Here, experts will give their weighty opinion on why this is so.

There is also no counteraction from the airfield security.

Overall, this is a serious failure on the part of the people and structures responsible for protecting the strategic facility. As usual, conclusions will be drawn after the devil has been done.
Of course, there is no need to throw a tantrum. Shit happens. The worst thing you can do in the current situation is not to draw conclusions and then step on the same rake again.

***

Colonelcassad
The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Ground Forces, Drapatiy, has officially resigned and taken responsibility for the Ukrainian Armed Forces' recent failures at the front.

Previously, Drapatiy was touted as a general who would fix everything and restore order.

The formal reason for his resignation was the Iskander's attack on the 239th Ukrainian Armed Forces' Training Center. So, the Iskander not only destroyed several dozen Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers, but also led to the removal of the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Ground Forces.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

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HOW TO NEGOTIATE CEASEFIRE WHEN YOU HAVEN’T DESTROYED THE ENEMY’S CAPABILITY TO ESCALATE – INDIAN WAR LESSONS FOR THE KREMLIN

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By John Helmer @bears_with

Tomorrow, Monday June 2, the second round of “direct” negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian delegations will open with the exchange of term sheets, the Russian memorandum and what retired US Army General Keith Kellogg calls the twenty-two points which have been drafted by the US and FUGUP (France, United Kingdom, Germany, Ukraine and Poland).

Speaking for President Donald Trump and the Europeans, Kellogg has announced that he has read both term sheets, and that when the talks open in Istanbul, the Ukrainian delegation will have behind them the national security advisors of the US, France, UK, and Germany. Kellogg believes both sides in the talks, the US-backed Ukrainians and the Russians, have fresh escalation capacities still to be used against each other. According to Kellogg, Trump is aiming to prevent President Vladimir Putin countering each one of the Ukrainian allies now arming their escalation, including – he added – Finland.

“The reason I believe the US has to stay involved”, Kellogg said, “is because of escalation…You have an escalation ladder. You better know when to get off it. If you don’t get off, you’ve got a big problem.”

In this discussion of India’s Operation Sindoor against Pakistan last month, and Russia’s three-year Special Military Operation, senior Indian military officers (retired), Lieutenant General Ravi Shankar and Brigadier Arun Saghal demonstrate how effective the Indian forces were in destroying Pakistan’s capability for escalation, and compelling the ceasefire Pakistan applied for.

Together, we discuss the Indian lessons and apply them to the next stage of Russia’s negotiations with all its adversaries on the Ukrainian battlefield.

Click for Sunday’s hour-long podcast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHYdgZtIjRA

From Moscow a well-informed expert on Russian policy-making comments on the course of the negotiations to date between President Putin and President Trump. “We understand that Trump wanted a cheap and quick grandstanding victory as a gift from the Russians. So he played all his cards – placating Putin, complimenting him, threatening him, abusing him. Now all those cards have been used. The Russians stuck to its line, “Let’s have technical and detailed talks.” The Russians also adjusted their position to indicate they were willing to go for a ceasefire before a comprehensive end-of-war agreement, and even before the talks proceeded. But they did not move from their fundamental positions and in the meantime they have hit Ukrainians and kept on hitting harder than ever before. So Trump also got the messages from his generals, his intel, and the Europeans of the imminent Russian victories.”

“This was the build-up. Then let us add that the US aided and abetted the [May 20] attack on Putin. Either Trump was not briefed before or he was briefed in small print he couldn’t read. But now it’s crunch time. The Ukrainians are waiting for instructions from Washington. If there are no clear instructions from Trump, the Europeans will take charge and scuttle the talks, blaming Putin again. Let us see what Trump does next. It’s a matter of a few days now and Russians have played their hand well. If Trump claims to be walking away, this means he intends the Europeans to take charge of escalating the fight – and he will keep arming that.”

For the accompanying analysis by Lieutenant General Harimohan Iyer of the “new mode of warfare” used by the Indian military to stop Pakistan’s escalation options, click to view here. These are Iyer’s illustrations of the escalation ladder. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncybpdCVOEk

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Click on source to view enlarged slides -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncybpdCVOEk

Lieutenant General Shankar retired from the Indian Army as Director General of Artillery in October 2016.

Brigadier (retired) Saghal is one of the leading intelligence analysts in India. With a PhD from Allahabad University, he was the founding Director of the Office of Net Assessment, a unit of the Indian Integrated Defence Staff for preparing long-term strategic analyses and forecasts. He has also served as a consultant to the National Security Council, the principal advisor to the Prime Ministry on military and security policy. Dr Saghal has also played leading roles in the Indian Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation (Cs3) and the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

When he retired in 2024, Lieutenant General Harimohan Iyer was Commandant of the School of Artillery.

https://johnhelmer.net/how-to-negotiate ... more-91734

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SITREP 5/31/25: Russian Breakthrough Starts Pouring Through Sumy Sieve
Simplicius
May 31, 2025

One of the interesting developments of the past few days is the continued rejection by Russian officials of the previous ceasefire ‘status quo’, with the gradual warming up by the West to Russia’s own demands.

This was highlighted by Keith Kellogg seemingly acknowledging recent “leaks” that Putin’s new memorandum would include a requirement for NATO to desist from expanding eastward to countries like Moldova, Georgia, or even beyond. Kellogg here appears to acquiesce to these demands:
(Video at link.)

He states: “We’re saying comprehensively, we can stop the expansion of NATO coming close to your border.”

On one hand, this may appear to be a good step forward by the US in finally acknowledging Russia’s security concerns, and it should be said, implicitly acknowledging that the conflict was in fact started by NATO expansion. On the other hand, put yourself in Russia’s shoes—NATO had already sung that song to Russia back in the early ‘90s, then infamously reneged.

That’s not to mention that NATO had just expanded massively in the past two years. It feels kind of disingenuous to say: “Okay, we’ll stop further expansion” after blitzing through the largest expansion in decades right onto Russia’s doorstep with the addition of Sweden and Finland. That’s like strangling a person by the neck then whispering, don’t worry, I promise not to squeeze any harder than this.

The US’ diplomatic forays were indirectly answered by this blockbuster UN speech by Russian ambassador Vasily Nebenzya: (Video at link.)

He states unequivocally that Russia will no longer play these games, allow provocations on its border or even in its zone of interest, and is more than ready to fight for as long as necessary to eliminate the threat, as well as protect Russian people in this wider region.

That’s not to mention China's deputy UN rep Geng Shuang in the same session likewise reaffirmed the US’ responsibility for the Ukraine war: (Video at link.)

Lavrov likewise reiterated that there will be no returning to past formulas: (Video at link.)

State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Kartapolov issued an even more pronounced statement—that Ukraine would lose Sumy, Zaporozhye, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolayev, and Odessa if it continues to resist: (Video at link.)



On the front, Ukraine’s position continues to deteriorate as the Russian summer offensive ramps up. The key focus has been Sumy as Russian forces seized the initiative and made several breakthroughs in different directions.

The word is that some Ukrainian units were withdrawn from Sumy weeks ago to help shore up the crumbling Konstantinovka direction, leaving Sumy region weakened. From a Russian military channel:

"Our source reports that the General Staff and the Ops urgently transferred reserves to the Konstantinovskoye and Pokrovskoye directions in order to prevent collapses of the front in this section of the front, since the Russians have picked up too much speed in capturing populated areas, which threatens Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka with operational encirclement in the coming months.

These stabilization measures weakened the defense of the Sumy region, where the Russian Armed Forces also began to advance.

The situation, according to the military, is very complicated and could become critical and then catastrophic if Bankovaya continues to control military operations."


Now Russian forces are pouring through the border like a sieve, causing panic in Ukrainian upper circles. Most notably this was seen when Zelensky cut his German trip short yesterday, citing the Sumy emergency as reason.

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https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/16 ... any-visit/

Russian forces are now expanding rapidly in Sumy, with the region governor calling for new emergency evacuations of another several dozen villages:

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Villages to be evacuated by order of governor.

Today Russian forces completed the capture of Oleksivka seen below, with a new salient breaking out into Konstantinovka and entering Kindrativka to the west:

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Massive Russian airstrike hits Ukrainian position near Alekseevka (Oleksivka), Sumy region, using FAB-500 glide bombs. The grain storage facility was used by Kiev regime forces.

(Video at link.)

Note the video above while reading this latest report from Ukrainian military sources on the border:

"Friends, today I had the opportunity to talk with a number of competent military leaders in the Sumy direction. At the moment, the Russians are actually not carrying out any skillful and complex infantry actions. They are simply burning our positions with massive fire, adding UAVs to it. They have been preparing for this for a long time. For us to stand still in such conditions means killing our soldiers for nothing. These are not kilometers on the map, these are hundreds of someone's husbands, fathers and brothers. Do not lose heart. I believe that our military will stabilize the situation."

From the horse’s mouth itself: Russians are apparently not doing anything “skillful”, but are merely slaughtering Ukrainian troops via massive fire-bombing as seen in the video above.

It seems skill can be overrated.

To the east, Loknya was fully captured with Yunakovka now being entered, with various reports claiming Ukrainian forces have already abandoned it to flee south, which should mean its total capture is likely imminent:

Sumy direction

Units of the 106th Guards Airborne Division advanced in Yunakovka along the left bank to the N-07 road in the area of the Church of the Nativity of the Blessed Virgin Mary , which came under our control.

About half of Yunakovka is under the control of Russian paratroopers.


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Further east of there, Russian forces broke through on a new portion of the border:

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Bild reports the accelerating captures:

The Russian army took 18 settlements, almost 200 km², in 7 days — Bild

Russian troops are demonstrating the most active advancement in the DPR, Kharkov and Sumy regions.

According to the publication’s experts, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are unable to stop the offensive due to an acute shortage of personnel, which cannot be eliminated in the near future.

In addition, Russia’s numerical superiority in infantry is having an increasingly noticeable impact on the situation at the front.


Russian forces also made a new breakthrough over the Kharkov region border along the Kupyansk axis:

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On the Velyka Novosilka front on the Zaporozhye border Russian forces expanded control, capturing Vesele, then Novopol and Zelene Pole to the southwest:

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More information from a Russian military channel:

The "East" group of forces continues its offensive in the direction of the Dnipropetrovsk region. The forces of the 394th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment have taken the village of Zelenoye Pole, from which there are just over 3 km left to the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region.

In fact, today Syrsky announced a supposed Russian offensive had begun in Zaporozhye. The Wagner-linked Condottiero channel reports:

Zaporizhia region "And now the most interesting thing is Operation “pants” in the south of the Ukrainian theater of military operations. In the area of ​​the settlement Lobkovoe and to the east, the assault forces of the Russian Armed Forces have consolidated in the strongholds occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Here, as in the area of ​​Kamenskoye, our forces are driving the Ukrainian Armed Forces from their positions, the enemy has fled. The fighting continues on the western outflanking of Orekhovo , in the area of ​​Shcherbaki and Malye Shcherbaki. Attempts to stop our breakthroughs at Syrsky's headquarters failed. The transfer of reserves did not help. In this direction, the most interesting things will happen, since the exit to Orekhov and entry into the Dnepropetrovsk region to the west will give us the opportunity to hold a large group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces here, weakening Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk."


Just north of the Velyka Novosilka line, Russian forces completed capture of Troitske, likely entering Horikhove next:

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And on the bottom of the map you can see just above Bogatyr, Russian forces have begun storming Oleksivka, having cleared the eastern portion of the town as the next target. Oradnoye can be seen at the bottom, which was just captured this week, with a few new areas cleared around it.

Lastly, in the Konstantinovka direction, Russian forces have finally fully collapsed the Zorya pocket. You’ll recall just recently it looked like this:

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Now this, with only the yellow lines indicating the fallen area:

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Here are some of the units operating in this direction on both sides (click to enlarge):

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Ukrainian military analyst Myroshnykov writes of this direction:

Well, the Kostyantynivka and Mirnohrad directions are in a not very good situation, to put it mildly.

Many hoped that they would be able to contain the enemy in the ravines and ravines on the distant approaches to Konstaha.

But the thing is, the enemy has already passed almost half of them. In 1.5 months.

This proves once again that in a modern war with an enemy that does not take losses into account, the advantages of the terrain are no longer advantages.

After the summer-autumn of 2024, it was possible to finally see this.

Because the occupiers don't care how much of their flesh they'll sacrifice to move up/across reservoirs/across rivers to seriously fortified positions.


(More at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... eakthrough

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Russia Matters: Kellogg: Putin’s Demand for NATO to Not Expand Eastward Is ‘Fair’
May 31, 2025
Russia Matters, 5/30/25

Vladimir Putin’s conditions for ending the war in Ukraine include a demand that Western leaders pledge in writing to stop enlarging NATO eastward and lift a chunk of sanctions on Russia, three Russian sources with knowledge of the negotiations told Reuters. Asked by ABC on May 29 about the demand on non-enlargement, U.S. presidential envoy Keith Kellogg said: “It’s a fair concern.” “We’ve said that to us, Ukraine coming into NATO is not on the table, and we’re not the only country that says that—you know I could probably give you four other countries in NATO and it takes 32 of the 32 to allow you to come in to NATO,” Kellogg said. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov lauded Kellogg’s comments, saying they came as a “result of Russia-U.S. talks held behind closed doors,” according to The New York Times.
Russian and Ukrainian officials continued to lock horns into the afternoon hours of May 30 on whether Moscow has to send its memorandum detailing its conditions for peace to Kyiv ahead of June 2 for the two warring sides to sit down for a second round of talks in Istanbul on that date. Russia’s top diplomat Sergei Lavrov insisted that the Russian side would present the memorandum in Istanbul on June 2, Washington Post reported May 28. The Ukrainians, meanwhile, said they had already sent their memorandum to Russia and that Russia should reciprocate immediately. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, Russia has not received a copy of Ukraine’s memorandum, ISW reported. In a May 29 interview with ABC, Kellogg confirmed that the United States had received Ukraine’s memorandum, but was still waiting on Russia’s, according to The New York Times. He said the next step after the June 2 talks could be a trilateral meeting with Putin and Trump, which is something that Volodymyr Zelenskyy also proposed this week.
In the past week, Russian forces gained 52 square miles of Ukrainian territory (just over 2 Manhattan islands), a slight decrease in the rate of advance from the previous week, according to the May 28, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. The past week saw Russian forces capture four of the Sumy region’s villages, Novenke, Basivka, Veselivka and Zhuravka, according to this eastern Ukrainian province’s governor, Oleh Hryhorov, in remarks reported May 27. Then on May 28, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Zelene Pole in the neighboring Donetsk region. On May 29, DeepState reported that the Russian armed forces had occupied Romanivka and Troitske. In May, Russian armed forces have more than doubled the area that they seized in April, capturing an average of 5.5 square miles each day amid Kyiv’s claims of Russia’s pending summer offensive in the east, according to data provided by DeepState and reported by The New York Times. Russian forces are advancing on Ukrainian battlefields at the fastest pace this year, according to this newspaper. If the pace of Russia’s advance so far this year, as estimated by ISW for January–April 2025 and DeepState for Jan. 1–May 22, 2025, remains unchanged (which is highly unlikely, as such trends are rarely linear), it would take Russia 140–180 years to capture the remaining 80+% of Ukraine’s territory.*
Russia’s aerial attacks against Ukraine in the past week have shattered some previous records, according to estimates by ISW that are based on data from the Ukrainian air force. Ukraine’s air force said May 25 that Russia had launched 69 ballistic and cruise missiles along with 298 attack drones. The air force spokesman, Yuriy Ihnat, said that it was the largest bombardment of the war in terms of the number of weapons used, according to The New York Times. Then, overnight on May 25–26, Russia fired what Kyiv said was the largest-ever drone barrage on Ukraine to date, including “355 Shahed-type drones” and nine cruise missiles. In between the attacks, Trump hit out at Putin “He has gone absolutely CRAZY!” the U.S. president wrote on May 25. On May 27, Trump warned that Putin is “playing with fire.”1 While attacking Putin, Trump oscillated on whether he’d agree to impose new sanctions on Russia. On May 25, he said he was “absolutely” considering new sanctions against Russia. But on May 28, he said he’s holding off on new sanctions against Russia in order to preserve the chance for a deal to end the war in Ukraine.
The U.S. has endorsed a Group of Seven communique adopted at the recent G-7 meeting in Canada, representing a significant change in the U.S. public position on the Russian-Ukrainian war. This past February alone saw U.S. either vote against condemnation of Russia for the Ukraine war or sign off on declarations only if the latter avoided assigning blame for the conflict on three occasions at international fora. First, on Feb. 21, 2025, the so-called Chair’s Summary of the First G-20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting had to be produced instead of a communique after top officials from the U.S. and several other countries skipped it and delegates remained far apart on key issues.2 The summary said “there was agreement to support all efforts towards a just peace in Ukraine,” but it did not assign any blame for initiating the conflict. Then, on Feb. 24, 2025, the U.S. supported UNSC Resolution 2774 that mourned “the tragic loss of life throughout the Russian Federation-Ukraine conflict” and called for “a lasting peace between Ukraine and the Russian Federation,” but, again, assigned no blame to initiating the conflict. Finally, on Feb. 25, 2025, the U.S. voted against a UNGA resolution, which expressed “concern over “the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation,” and which demanded “that the Russian Federation immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine.” Such behavior at international fora has been consistent with the refusal by Trump and his top aides to blame Russia for the war. In contrast, however, the G-7 communique, which was adopted by G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors on May 22, had the following language: “We condemn Russia’s continued brutal war against Ukraine… The G-7 remains committed to unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its territorial integrity and right to exist, and its freedom, sovereignty and independence toward a just and durable peace.” Thus the signatories of the May 22, 2025, communique, including the U.S. representative, pointed the accusatory finger at Russia for initiating the war against Ukraine.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/05/rus ... d-is-fair/

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Russian Defense Ministry on attacks on strategic aviation airfields
June 1, 18:56

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Official statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding the attack on strategic aviation airfields.

Today, the Kiev regime committed a terrorist attack using FPV drones against airfields in the Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions.

At military airfields in the Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions, all terrorist attacks were repelled.

In the Murmansk and Irkutsk regions, as a result of the launch of FPV drones from the territory located in the immediate vicinity of the airfields, several units of aircraft caught fire.

The fires were extinguished.
There were no casualties among military personnel and civilian personnel.

Some participants in the terrorist attacks were detained.

P.S. One of the trucks that was supposed to attack the Ukrainka airfield in the Amur region exploded before it reached it.
P.S. 2. I think we will see the exact number of burned/damaged vehicles in the next 24 hours on satellite images of the attacked airbases.
P.S. 3. The trucks were equipped with drones at a rented warehouse in Chelyabinsk. It has already been found.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9873674.html

Hedgehog tank
June 1, 23:59

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New anti-drone protection. Hedgehog tank.

(Video at link.)

And between the "hedgehog needles" you can stretch an additional net.
In fact, the tank has not disappeared from the battlefield, but the environment has become too toxic for it, so the tank has to adapt in order to survive and remain effective on the battlefield. It's difficult, but what can you do? Once the drone problem is solved at the tactical level, the tank will immediately feel better. In the meantime, welcome to the kingdom of barbecues, sheds and hedgehog needles.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9874194.html

Belaya Air Base after the attack
June 2, 9:54

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The enemy has published satellite images of the Belaya airbase in the Irkutsk region.
It has been reported that 7 aircraft were hit - 4 Tu-95 and 3 Tu-22M3. The condition of the aircraft is unknown. The Russian Defense Ministry yesterday acknowledged the downing of several aircraft, but without any specifics.

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In total, yesterday the enemy tried to attack 5 airfields, of which 2 were successfully attacked. In addition to the bases in the Irkutsk and Murmansk regions, where aircraft were hit, there were also attempts to attack airfields in the Ivanovo, Amur and Ryazan regions.

Today we can also expect satellite images of the airfield in Olenegorsk, where Tu-95 bombers were hit yesterday. We will estimate the approximate damage there.

P.S. The men who yesterday, risking their lives, prevented the enemy from launching drones from a truck in the Irkutsk region will be awarded. The governor of the region has already announced that all those involved will be rewarded for their courage. This is right - people risked their lives and tried to interfere with the enemy's plan.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9874457.html

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Jun 02, 2025 6:07 pm

Busy day...

Ukraine's 'Unprecedented' Operation Spiderweb: Russia's 'Pearl Harbor'? Or Just More Soggy Silk?
Simplicius
Jun 01, 2025

Ukraine has carried out a mass drone strike operation on Russian strategic bases, damaging and potentially destroying several Tu-95 strategic bombers as well as some additional Tu-22s and transport planes: (Video at link.)

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The operation was reportedly planned and coordinated for over eighteen months, and thus represents the culmination of nearly two years’ worth of careful intelligence work:

NEW: Ukrainian SBU’s Operation “Web” Took 1.5 Years to Prepare Ukraine’s SBU spent over 18 months planning the massive “Web” operation that struck 41 Russian strategic aircraft today. President Zelensky personally oversaw the mission, with SBU chief Vasyl Maliuk leading execution. Sources say the complex logistics involved smuggling FPV drones and mobile wooden cabins into Russia. The drones were hidden under remote-controlled roofs on trucks. When triggered, the roofs opened and kamikaze drones launched toward Russian bombers. SBU insiders stress that all operatives involved are already safely back in Ukraine. Any arrests by Russian authorities will likely be staged for domestic propaganda.

The photos show a secret warehouse rented in the remote Chelyabinsk region of Russia to assemble the drone shelters:

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One of the images claimed to show a fiber-optic drone being prepared for the operation:

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A possible match from one of the videos of the attack:

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Once again, what I have been writing about for two plus years comes into play—that Ukraine uses sabotage teams on Russian territory to slowly infiltrate in gear, assemble and stage operations, then carry out the ops from within, cutting Russian reaction times:

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In this case, Zelensky himself announced that Ukrainian agents made it over the border back to Ukraine just before the attack began, after having set everything in motion:

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“The office of our operation on Russian territory was located directly next to the Russian FSB headquarters in one of their regions,” Zelensky said in his evening address.

He also reported that a total of 117 drones, controlled by operators, were used in the operation. He stated that the Russian Federation lost more than 40 units of strategic aviation


The attack consisted of transport tractor trailers which parked near Russian airbases then unleashed a coordinated drone swarm at a chosen time.

Videos emerged showing the drones leaving the parked trailers; note, this longer compilation shows the drones exiting the trailers, as well as footage of Russian civilians who had noticed the attack and reportedly tried to shut the top of the trailers to prevent further drones from escaping. One video towards the end even shows some of the civilians being caught in the explosion after the trailer triggered a self-destruct mechanism:
(Video at link.)

Irkutsk oblast locals who witnessed the Ukrainian kamikaze drones launching from a truck climbed on top of it and tried to block the mechanism, close the hatches. (Videos at link.)

Olenegorsk in the Murmansk region. Drones flying out of the truck attack the airfield with Tu-95

Further, the attack appeared to have been even larger in design, but was to some extents foiled. Not only did some bases, like Ryazan according to reports, entirely repel the drones, but several of the trailers were mysteriously destroyed en route to their attack point: (Video at link.)

One uncorroborated version was that a foreign driver had ‘suspected’ something and stopped the trailer to inspect it, upon which it ‘self-destructed’. If that’s the case, Ukrainian operators may have been watching with security cameras hidden inside and chose to detonate it, on failure of the mission.

It was said the drones used Russia’s LTE phone network, tapping into it via local SIM cards—a tactic long utilized by both sides.

Further, there were early claims these were ‘AI-powered’ drones, which is not true:

Drones that attacked Russian airfields were controlled by state-of-the-art artificial intelligence that was trained on aircraft from the Poltava Long-Range Aviation Museum.

Truth: The enemy's published footage of objective control shows that no artificial intelligence was used in the attacks. The drones were controlled via open-source software, and the communications were apparently conducted via mobile networks. This is indicated by the LTE signal receiver antennas that were captured in the footage.


It’s clear that with the loss of some of the trailers en route, and the intervening of Russian civilians on others, the operation was only a partial success—but, of course, such a result would have been calculated into the planning.

For Ukraine’s purposes, the success is enough: even destroying one or two of Russia’s strategic Tu-95 bombers is ample accomplishment because Russia no longer manufactures these airframes, and only has somewhere between 47-55 active—though it remains an open question whether 18 months of intense planning and sacrificed intel resources was ‘worth it’ for this result.

Thus far, Russian sources have reported that potentially anywhere between one to five Tu-95s were actually destroyed or disabled permanently, though nothing is conclusive yet, and the final tally could prove much smaller or greater than surmised. RussiansWithAttitude notes:

Final tally of confirmed hits so far seems to be 5 Tu-95s, 2 Tu-22s, one An-12. According to my info, two of the 95s can most likely be repaired relatively soon, as the damage is not super extensive. At least one is dead for good. The 22s, no idea. Sure hurts but not devastating

From what I’ve seen of the footage, only one looked to be potentially totally destroyed, with others merely suffering fires exaggerated by the heavy smoke of burning aviation fuel. Other videos show transport craft burning, which are mistaken for Tu-95s. For instance, here is said to be the Antonov AN-12BK burning:

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The fact is, a tiny FPV drone will have a hard time entirely ‘destroying’ a gigantic strategic bomber—many different FPV hits would likely be needed unless the plane is full of fuel and on-base fire suppression teams do not respond in time—which is of course a possibility.

Russian bases have emergency fire suppression units for this very purpose, and Ukrainian-paid ‘saboteurs’ have lit several Russian aircraft on fire in the past two years which were always put out and repaired virtually in days. This means the likelihood of a large amount of Tu-95s being completely destroyed is low.

But as of this writing new Ukrainian OSINT Synthetic Aperture Radar pictures of Belaya airbase in Irkutsk claim to show 3 x Tu-95 ‘destroyed’:

(Paywall with free option.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ukr ... -operation

******

Correct.

Larry summarizes it well.


In my opinion, none of these attacks could have been planned and executed without assistance, if not the direct involvement, of Western intelligence and NATO officers. The drones likely were activated by a remote signal made possible by Western satellites and/or systems like Starlink. Those systems also played a critical role in enabling the drones to navigate to the targeted airfields.

While this is clearly a PR victory for Ukraine, it is a classic example of a Pyrrhic victory–i.e., a tactical win, leading to a strategic defeat. The Trump administration is denying any knowledge of the attack. I take that disavowal with a big grain of salt. People within the CIA and USEUCOM offices, who are providing assistance to Ukraine, likely knew about the plan, and may even have provided intelligence support to get the drones to their targets. Like any covert operation, they may have tried to give Trump plausible deniability, but the Russians know how this game is played.

I expect Russia will launch a massive retaliatory strike after the talks in Istanbul on Monday conclude. The Ukrainian attacks on the bridges, the train and the airfields have done nothing to alter the situation all along the line of contact in Ukraine. News continues to pour in from the front, from both Ukrainian and Russian news outlets, painting a picture of growing desperation, even panic, among Ukrainian forces, as Russians capture more territory and kill more Ukrainian troops.


As I posted in the previous thread--I only now recognized that I don't know math and warfare. 3 TU-95 MC and 2 TU-22M3 destroyed AND damaged (meaning some of them will return to service) is roughly (among active, there are more in reserve) 70 heavy + 90 middle =160 bomber aircraft: so 5/160= 3.125%. That's it, Russia lost the war. Tomorrow Russian delegation will accept 404 and EU's "conditions" and that will be it.

Posted by smoothiex12 at 8:15 PM 125 Comments

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/06/correct.html

*******

Will Russia’s Retaliation To Ukraine’s Strategic Drone Strikes Decisively End The Conflict?

Andrew Korybko
Jun 01, 2025

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Tonight will be fateful for the conflict’s future.

Ukraine carried out strategic drone strikes on Sunday against several bases all across Russia that are known to house elements of its nuclear triad. This came a day before the second round of the newly resumed Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul and less than a week after Trump warned Putin that “bad things..REALLY BAD” might soon happen to Russia. It therefore can’t be ruled out that he knew about this and might have even discreetly signaled his approval in order to “force Russia into peace”.

Of course, it’s also possible that he was bluffing and the Biden-era CIA helped orchestrate this attack in advance without him every finding out so that Ukraine could either sabotage peace talks if he won and pressured Zelensky into them or coerce maximum concessions from Russia, but his ominous words still look bad. Whatever the extent of Trump’s knowledge may or may not be, Putin might once again climb the escalation ladder by dropping more Oreshniks on Ukraine, which could risk a rupture in their ties.

Seeing as how Trump is being left in the dark about the conflict by his closest advisors (not counting Witkoff) as proven by him misportraying Russia’s retaliatory strikes against Ukraine over the past week as unprovoked, he might react the same way to Russia’s inevitable retaliation. His ally Lindsay Graham already prepared legislation for imposing 500% tariffs on all Russian energy clients, which Trump might approve in response, and this could pair with ramping up armed aid to Ukraine in a major escalation.

Everything therefore depends on the form of Russia’s retaliation; the US’ response; and – if they’re not canceled as a result – the outcome of tomorrow’s talks in Istanbul. If the first two phases of this scenario sequence don’t spiral out of control, then it’ll all depend on whether Ukraine makes concessions to Russia after its retaliation; Russia makes concessions to Ukraine after the US’ response to Russia’s retaliation; or their talks are once again inconclusive. The first is by far the best outcome for Russia.

The second would suggest that Ukraine’s strategic drone strikes on Russia’s nuclear triad and the US’ response to its retaliation pressured Putin to compromise on his stated goals. These are Ukraine’s withdrawal from the entirety of the disputed regions, its demilitarization, denazification, and restoring its constitutional neutrality. Freezing the Line of Contact (LOC), even perhaps in exchange for some US sanctions relief and a resource-centric strategic partnership with it, could cede Russia’s strategic edge.

Not only might Ukraine rearm and reposition ahead of reinitiating hostilities on comparatively better terms, but uniformed Western troops might also flood into Ukraine, where they could then function as tripwires for manipulating Trump into “escalating to de-escalate” if they’re attacked by Russia. As for the third possibility, inconclusive talks, Trump might soon lose patience with Russia and thus “escalate to de-escalate” anyhow. He could always just walk away, however, but his recent posts suggest that he won’t.

Overall, Ukraine’s unprecedented provocation will escalate the conflict, but it’s unclear what will follow Russia’s inevitable retaliation. Russia will either coerce the concessions from Ukraine that Putin demands for peace; the US’ response to its retaliation will coerce concessions from Russia to Ukraine instead; or both will remain manageable and tomorrow’s talks will be inconclusive, thus likely only delaying the US’ seemingly inevitable escalated involvement. Tonight will therefore be fateful for the conflict’s future.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/will-rus ... o-ukraines

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Russia’s talking heads discuss the Ukrainian attacks on air bases across the RF this weekend

In an essay yesterday, I mentioned the Ukrainian drone attacks over the weekend on airbases across the Russian Federation from Murmansk in the North, to the Moscow region and Central Russia, across all of Siberia to the Baikal region (Irkutsk). My brief remarks were based on Western accounts, principally, The Financial Times, which in turn was re-transmitting what Kiev had to say about its daring and seemingly highly successful feats destroying Russian strategic bombers.

Note that the Ukrainians had stressed that the aircraft destroyed were being used to launch missiles that were fired on Ukraine. However, for our purposes in looking at the broader threat to Russian security that their destruction poses, should it have occurred as the Ukrainians say, these aircraft are key components in the Russian nuclear triad for strategic defense against the United States. The Ukrainians claim to have destroyed 40 such bombers, meaning one-third of the Russian fleet in this category of aircraft.

Last night, the Sunday edition of Vladimir Solovyov’s widely watched talk show featured a military expert panelist who told us a good deal more about what happened and in which directions Russian investigation of this calamity and thoughts of retaliation are headed.

Firstly, the Russians deny that the destruction was as extensive as the Ukrainians claim. They insist that their local air defenses neutralized most of the incoming drones. They speak of some damaged aircraft without specifying how many. On the other hand, they are considering a nuclear response in line with their nuclear doctrine of retaliation for attacks which endanger Russian national security. This in its own way is an acknowledgement that something awful did occur. The same panelist makes it clear that the ongoing investigation has already led to arrests of Russians who facilitated the attack by acts of commission and omission.

The attack this weekend took 18 months to prepare. The positive conclusion we may draw is that a follow-on attack is improbable if not impossible to carry out. Nonetheless, the events of the weekend highlight serious security problems that it will not be easy for Russian authorities to correct.

Specifically, it is now known that the Ukrainian drones were brought into the Russian Federation in truck-trailers. This means that the border inspections by Russian customs were strangely lax at more than one border crossing and on more than one date. Secondly it raises the questions about the complicity of the truck drivers, some of whom have now been arrested and who, under questioning say they had no idea what the containers held.

Then there are questions one must pose regarding the long time that these trailers were kept in place in the general vicinity of Russia’s most important air bases. How could their presence not have raised questions for local officials?

Finally, the investigation has revealed that Russian military recruits on the airbases under attack photographed what was happening and the destruction of planes, and then put these images up on social media. That they had kept their personal phones with them was itself a violation of military regulations. That they posted images identifying the strategic bombers which were damaged is itself punishable under Russian wartime law.

****

The next set of questions, for which as yet we have no answers, is how the Kremlin will respond to this attack that would appear to meet the criterion for nuclear escalation under the latest Russian doctrine.

Will President Putin now declare war on Ukraine, as his legalistic mind would suggest, to clear the way for destruction of the ‘decision making centers’ in Kiev, with or without all staff on board? Will he break off all peace negotiations, as logic would have it?

We will not have long to wait to get answers. I expect to see them in the coming week.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2025/06/02/ ... s-weekend/

******

Ukraine - Strategic Escalation Intended To Influence Talks

Days before negotiations towards an and of the conflict the operational tempo of the war in Ukraine has increased.

During the last week of May the Russian forces took 18 settlements and over 200 square kilometer. During the last 24 hours at least another 3 settlements have changed hands. The Ukrainian army is no longer capable to hold its defense lines. Its situation is deteriorating day by day.

On Saturday a Russian missile attack hit a Ukrainian military training camp. It killed or wounded about 100 soldiers. It was the second time the camp had been hit. Other agglomerations of Ukrainian forces had previously experienced the same fate. Still, Ukrainian forces beyond the frontline keep bunching up to become targets of long range weapons.

Taking responsibility for the repeated mistakes the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces resigned:

Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Mykhailo Drapatyi, has submitted his resignation over the tragedy at the 239th Training Range Center, where a Russian strike killed soldiers from a training battalion.
The loss is significant:

[Drapatyi] is considered one of the most skilled commanders in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and was a leading candidate to become the future Commander-in-Chief, expected to succeed Syrskyi.

On Saturday/Sunday Ukrainian diversion groups used explosives to destroy two Russian railroad bridges in the Kursk and Bryansk region. These bridges were located some 50 kilometer north of the Sumy region frontline. The hits will impact, if only for a short time, the railway bound supply of Russian forces north of Sumy.

One of the bridge explosions destroyed a civil passenger train. Some 10 people were killed and some 100 were wounded. This was likely intended and thereby a terror attack.

On Sunday morning a large scale operation by the Ukrainian secret service managed to attack multiple strategic airfields throughout Russia. Ukrainian sources claimed attacks on five airfields and the destruction of more than 40 strategic bombers.

Current damage assessment confirms attacks on two airfields and the destruction or damaging of up to 10 bombers.

The attack allegedly used 120 remotely controlled drones launched from civil trucks positioned near those airfields. Ukrainian sources claim that the operation took 18 month to prepare. It seems that the Russian mobile telephone network was used to remotely control the drones. It will be thereby relatively easy to prevent another attack of this kind by blocking the relevant traffic through these channels.

While the attack is of high propaganda value it will have no favorable impact on the Ukrainian position on the battle field. It will rather entice the Russian forces to hit harder, mostly likely by long range attacks against Ukrainian decision centers.

The U.S. claims to not have been informed about the attack on strategic (nuclear) Russian assets. The claim is not plausible. As former CIA agent Larry Johnson asserts:

In my opinion, none of these attacks could have been planned and executed without assistance, if not the direct involvement, of Western intelligence and NATO officers. The drones likely were activated by a remote signal made possible by Western satellites and/or systems like Starlink. Those systems also played a critical role in enabling the drones to navigate to the targeted airfields.

On Sunday eve the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov initiated a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The content of the call has not been published.

Also on Sunday the Russian forces launched about 100 long range drones against targets in Ukraine. On Monday morning some 100 drones were launched by Ukraine towards Moscow. Damage assessments for these attacks are not yet available.

The escalation of the war beyond the immediate battlefield came on the eve of Ukrainian-Russian negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey.

Ukraine's international position continues to deteriorate. Coming June 6 EU import privileges for Ukrainian products will end. The impact on the Ukraine economy will be serious. Yesterday Poland, Ukraine's most supportive neighbor, elected a conservative president who is not in favor of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian side had likely hoped that its attack on strategic Russian airfields would entice Russia to delay or break-off the talks in Istanbul. They will however take place and continue.

Both sides are expected to exchange memoranda about their envisioned paths towards an end of the war.

I do expect the Russian side to deliver some kind of ultimatum.


Posted by b at 8:17 UTC | Comments (104)

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/06/u ... l#comments

******

No negative results
June 2, 17:01

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The talks in Turkey have ended. As the Turkish Foreign Ministry stated, "without negative results."
They lasted a little over an hour - 1 hour and 15 minutes. They exchanged memoranda on the parameters of the settlement.

At most, they agreed on one more exchange. Which will take place in the near future. There will also be another exchange of the killed.
They report that the negotiations were held in Russian.

In general, they agreed to continue negotiating. And about the exchange. The next negotiations will take place sometime in June.
Meanwhile, the war will continue. In May, the Russian Armed Forces liberated more than 500 square kilometers of territory.

From the Russian delegation:

1. Russia handed over to Ukraine a memorandum containing specific steps to cease fire and achieve peace.

2. Russia will unilaterally transfer 6,000 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers and officers to Ukraine. 6,000 frozen corpses will be transferred to Ukraine next week. Russia is ready to accept in return any number of dead Russian soldiers that the enemy has.

3. An agreement was also reached on a new exchange of prisoners, as well as on the exchange of the seriously wounded and seriously ill, all for all. Also, prisoners under 25 will be exchanged all for all. The ceiling is no less than 1000. After that, exchanges will take place regularly. They will try to depoliticize them.

4. Russia proposed that Ukraine conclude a temporary truce on certain sections of the front for 2-3 days to collect the bodies of the dead.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9875514.html

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Jun 03, 2025 11:31 am

Second meeting in Istanbul: exchange of memoranda
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/06/2025

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Without handshakes, with evident tension and no prospect of making any substantial progress, the Russian and Ukrainian delegations met yesterday in Istanbul for the second time since Vladimir Putin proposed restarting the Istanbul process to defuse the European ultimatum to accept the unconditional ceasefire demanded by Ukraine's allies. Accepting this truce ordered by London, Paris, and Berlin implied initiating a peace process under the terms of the Ukrainian roadmap, whose short-term objective is to achieve a ceasefire that prevents further territorial loss while granting Ukraine all its political objectives.

“Europe, along with the United States, has better weapons than Russia. We also have more robust tactical solutions; our Operation Spider Web yesterday demonstrated this. Russia must feel the meaning of its losses. That is what will drive it toward diplomacy. And when Russia suffers losses in this war, it is clear to everyone that Ukraine is the one holding the line, not only for itself, but for all of Europe,” Zelensky said yesterday, flexing his military muscles thanks to his operation the day before and demanding, as has been customary over the past decade, more funding, more weapons, and more political and economic support for his cause. The Ukrainian president, who boasted that Sunday's operation, "one of them," was conceived and prepared inside Russia, forgets that eleven years ago Ukraine lost control of its most precious territory, its population left with no intention of returning, that it used military means to end a political problem, that it signed a peace agreement it never intended to honor, and that it is currently willing to subject its remaining population to an endless war to achieve political objectives it was able to achieve three years ago at the negotiating table, adding to those the possibility of NATO membership. It is currently opposed by both the United States and other European members, who, however, are not willing to commit to halting the expansion of the Cold War alliance to the de facto border that any analyst knows since 2022 this war will entail.

Fatigue and creditors still have no desire to directly participate in the war by sending their soldiers to their deaths in the trenches of Donbas, but the most important issue remains keeping Ukraine's cause at the center of the international political agenda, whether or not there is a ceasefire. To do so, it is necessary to exaggerate—or fabricate—the Russian threat, something that is compatible with announcing the country's extreme weakness. The narrative of this war has never lacked coherence. "Ask your intelligence services: what is Russia planning this summer in Belarus?" Zelensky stated, fabricating a threat to justify the fact that "if they are bold enough to prepare attacks from there, then we need more strength, together. And right now, that means strengthening Ukraine so we can stop this war and prevent it from spreading. That's why arms production is important." Last week, Donald Trump, who has yet to react to Sunday's Ukrainian attack, which the media hailed as "audacious ," expressed surprise that Russia continued the airstrikes even though, in his view, a peace deal was imminent. The current situation is even more complicated, as the increasing daily Ukrainian attacks—which prompted a Russian response—are compounded by threats to continue conducting intelligence operations like those that occurred Sunday on both military bases and civilian infrastructure.

After weeks of claiming that Russia was proposing conditions of Ukraine's capitulation simply to cover up the issue and block any possibility of a negotiated peace—despite the fact that it has been kyiv that has shied away from the possibility of diplomacy for these past three years, plus the seven years of sabotage of the Minsk process—the Ukrainian government published its proposed resolution to the conflict on Sunday night. It did so less than a day before yesterday's negotiations and coinciding with the confirmation that the Ukrainian delegation would attend—there was no other option, as Keith Kellogg had publicly ordered it—the meeting, where it would finally receive the Russian proposal. Nothing is yet known about the content of the two memoranda Medinsky confirmed he delivered to Ukraine at the meeting, one containing a detailed list of the proposed resolution and the other containing the steps necessary to achieve a ceasefire.

For the time being, and despite the low expectations the meeting offered given the conditions under which it was to be held, the mere sixty minutes that followed the Turkish Foreign Minister's opening speech yielded some results. As on all other occasions when the parties have sought to demonstrate progress without making political concessions, the issue of prisoners of war and the bodies of fallen soldiers was once again discussed yesterday. Barely two weeks after the conclusion of the largest prisoner exchange of this war, Russia and Ukraine agreed to negotiate the next one, in addition to returning around 1,000 wounded prisoners under the age of 25. Added to this was the exchange of the bodies of 6,000 dead soldiers, the most tangible result of yesterday's meeting, during which it was also agreed to continue dialogue. It is in the interest of both capitals to be perceived as capable of continuing negotiations with their opponent.

“When you read the headlines proclaiming the failure of tomorrow's talks, keep in mind that expectations of any significant progress at this stage of the process do not reflect the reality of this war. It will be a long and arduous battle,” wrote Samuel Charap, a fellow at the Rand Corporation, on Sunday, familiar with the intricacies of the Istanbul negotiations in 2022 and possibly the person most vocal in defending the possibility of building on the work of three years ago to reach an agreed-upon resolution to the conflict between the two countries. However, the arduous and lengthy work envisioned by the American expert contradicts Donald Trump's wishes and, above all, the interests of Volodymyr Zelensky, whose goal is to impose his memorandum as the basis for a resolution that will lead only to a freeze on the war without a final treaty closing the conflict.

This is what emerges from the Ukrainian memorandum published on Sunday, a five-part document, in which the unconditional ceasefire—that is, on Ukraine's terms—appears in three of them and which provides for a meeting between presidents to determine the permanent cessation of hostilities; security guarantees and non-repetition of aggression; territorial issues; the economy, compensation, and reconstruction; penalties for non-compliance with the agreements; and the conclusion of the peace agreement. This ambitious agenda, which Zelensky wants to conclude this month, fully aware that there is no time to create the conditions under which a summit of the three presidents—Trump, Putin, and Zelensky—can reach all these agreements.

“Ukrainian military blogger Oleh Petrenko writes that Ukraine's conditions in the memorandum to be presented in Istanbul, cited by Reuters, amount to a Russian capitulation. If the Reuters leak reflects Ukraine's genuine position, Zelensky decided to keep his country at war in the hope of finding a magic bullet; perhaps he sees today's attacks as one of them. Perhaps he still hopes to convince Trump and keep the United States as Ukraine's main supporter,” Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin wrote on Sunday, before it was confirmed that the text published that day was indeed the memorandum handed over by kyiv.

The content of the document, which includes each and every point of the Peace Formula Zelensky presented in November 2022, except for the demand for a unilateral Russian withdrawal from the entire territory, including Crimea, is Ukraine's umpteenth attempt to impose a victor's peace without even having managed to win the war. The text implies that Russia accepts being labeled the sole cause of the conflict, submits to sanctions if Ukraine considers it to be violating the terms of the agreement, pays for the costs of the conflict by handing over to Kiev the assets seized by the European Union or of its own volition, and accepts, of course, that Kiev will continue its path to NATO and will have the right to have military presence of member countries on its territory. As icing on the cake, Ukraine proposes US-led ceasefire monitoring, thus achieving the dream of having American boots on the ground. The document also does not include the demand for a tribunal to try Russian crimes, an unnecessary point, since that initiative has already been adopted by the countries of the European Union.

The conditions Zelensky is proposing, and for which he gives only 20 to 30 days, as he wants the three-way summit to take place this month, are those of voluntary surrender, which was unrealistic for Kiev's allies when it was first proposed. Since then, Ukraine has had successes in damaging Russia's rearguard, but has failed miserably in its attempt to recover lost territory. More depleted in terms of personnel and with a reinforced Russia on the front lines, Ukraine also fears losing at least part of its US assistance, something already evident in the shortage of air defense ammunition. To make this resolution proposal realistic, Ukraine is appealing to bold actions like Sunday's to show strength to its partners and promise a chance to defeat the old Russian enemy, which, whether verbalized or not, requires a direct war between great powers. Whether it's a sign of delusions of grandeur or a last-ditch attempt to further involve its allies in an even tougher war, the unworkable document submitted by Ukraine is simply a proposal designed to make Russia reject the path of negotiation.

In anticipation of a proposed resolution that amounts to unilateral surrender, as the Peace Formula and the Victory Plan already did , the Russian document has a similar objective. As expected, Russia demands Ukraine's withdrawal from the territories of the four Ukrainian regions it claims as its own, a demand Moscow is unable to meet as it lacks sufficient forces to impose this reality on its own. The rest of the document is also predictable and includes a mutual commitment not to claim foreign territories, rejection of NATO, a commitment to neutrality, a refusal to host nuclear weapons, protection of the Russian linguistic minority, and the holding of elections so that a government legitimized by the ballot box would sign the final treaty.

The Russian text is slightly less unworkable (except for the territorial demands), but both memoranda are proposals of maximums incapable of achieving diplomatic progress in the short or medium term. Only efficient and committed mediation can steer this process toward more realistic positions and lead to feasible negotiating positions. Until then, if the process continues, something that can no longer be guaranteed after what happened on Sunday, the current theater of the absurd will continue.

A mediator with diplomatic knowledge and skills would appreciate that the Russian memorandum provides significant room for maneuver to negotiate Russia's surrender of the parts of the Ukrainian territories it claims but does not control in exchange for a commitment to the absence of NATO troops in Ukraine. However, that mediator's envoy, Keith Kellogg, is one of the main proponents of the idea of ​​a peacekeeping mission involving the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. The American mediator was also the first to whom Ukraine appealed. After presenting a delirious peace plan , the Ukrainian president yesterday demanded that Donald Trump impose sanctions to "force Russia into a complete ceasefire."

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/03/segun ... emorandos/

Google Translator

Fuck it, on to Odessa.

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Russian media published the full text of the memorandum transferred by Russia to Ukraine

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Russian media have published the full text of the Russian memorandum, which was handed over to the Ukrainian delegation for review during the talks in Istanbul. The document consists of three parts, including parameters for resolving the conflict, conditions for a ceasefire, and a sequence of steps to reach a peace agreement.

The first part of the memorandum includes the main parameters of the final settlement. As expected, Moscow clearly adheres to the previously voiced positions and demands from Ukraine: international legal recognition of the new territories of Russia, including Crimea, as well as the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian military formations from their territory; complete neutrality of Ukraine, refusal to join various unions, blocs, etc.; non-nuclear status; reduction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and weapons, dissolution of nationalist formations and the National Guard; return of the official status to the Russian language, as well as ensuring full rights and freedoms for the Russian and Russian-speaking population; renunciation at the state level of Nazi and Bandera ideology, glorification of Nazism, dissolution of all nationalist organizations and parties; renunciation of previously introduced sanctions and a ban on the introduction of new ones; renunciation of mutual claims for damages; lifting of restrictions on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church; restoration of diplomatic and economic relations.

The second part speaks about the conditions of the ceasefire and includes two options: the first is the beginning of the withdrawal of Ukrainian formations from the territory of the Russian Federation, including new regions, to an agreed distance from the borders. The second option is a ban on the redeployment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with the exception of withdrawal to a distance agreed by the parties from the borders of the Russian Federation; a ban on mobilization and the beginning of demobilization; cessation of Western military aid, including the transfer of intelligence and satellite communications; all foreign "specialists" leave the territory of Ukraine; guarantees of renunciation of sabotage and subversive activities; the creation of a Center for Monitoring and Control of the Ceasefire Regime; mutual amnesty of "political prisoners" and detained civilians; the lifting of martial law and the announcement of elections for the President of Ukraine and deputies of the Verkhovna Rada.

The third part reflects the sequence of steps and the deadlines for their implementation: 1. Beginning work on the text of the treaty. 2. Declaring a 2-3 day ceasefire to collect the bodies of those killed in the gray zone. 3. Unilaterally transferring the bodies of 6 dead Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers to Kyiv. 4. Signing a memorandum on a ceasefire with specific dates. 5. Withdrawal of Ukrainian Armed Forces formations from Russian territory and a 30-day ceasefire, during which all the requirements from the second part must be met. 6. Holding elections and forming new government bodies. 7. Signing the treaty. 8. Approval of the treaty by a special UN resolution. 9. Ratification of the treaty and its entry into force.

https://en.topwar.ru/265617-rossijskie- ... raine.html

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Frontline sex, lost bodies in Sumy

'the enemy now holds superiority not only in numbers, but also in technology'
Events in Ukraine
Jun 01, 2025

The Russian army took 200 square kilometers of territory in the past week. That’s more than was taken in the entire month of April.

When realities on the ground are changing that rapidly, the whims of the white house mean little. It increasingly seems that both Russia and Ukraine take American ‘diplomacy’ equally seriously.

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I am therefore relieved to release another post about the frontlines. A few days ago, we took a look at Russia’s rapidly developing drone technologies. Today, our topics are more wide-ranging:

—Frontline sex, and a creative form of fundraising pioneered by the 79th brigade

—Soldiers and mothers complain of missing men in the Sumy region - worse, the abandonment of their bodies by indifferent Ukrainian command

—A closer look at evolving Russian tactics - first drone recon, then Ukrainian positions are bombed to bits, then drones sweep up anything still moving, and finally, small Russian infantry groups enter what remains of Ukrainian fortifications. Long gone are the myths of ‘Russian human waves’. Now, it is Ukrainian troops complaining of their technological inferiority.

—Ukrainian drone operator complaints - from corruption in drone procurement, to higher command’s preference to see drone operators die than for their $500 drone to be lost.

— Time for tactics - one influential brigade calls for ‘successful Wehrmacht tactics’ from the great year of 1942

— Spineless Europeans - Ukrainian militarists complain about their impotent western allies

— Motor-narcotics- Ukraine apes Russia by setting up its own dedicated motorcycle unit. I go into some interesting commentary on how exactly motorcycles are deployed at war

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The fibre-optic drone-laden fields of the Donbass. Posted May 31 by a Ukrainian military telegram

Frontline sex
Due to manpower deficiencies, Ukrainian troops are forced to spend upwards of 200 days in the hellish trenches, where taking a shit makes soldiers into an easy target for an explosive drone hurtling about at 300 kilometers per hour.

If one survives to be replaced by a rotation, there isn’t much to do in the small mining towns of the Donbass. Of course, as long as soldiers have existed, they’ve frequented the services of a more ancient profession.

This was described in detail by an interesting telegram I’ve found recently - that run by the 79th Separate Air Assault Tavriia Brigade. Their directness is refreshing.

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Here’s a May 23 post from them on this form of frontline relaxation, seemingly involving an unpaid volunteer:

🍓🤌 Sex on the Front Lines

🔥 Yeah, guys, it happens.
Not every damn day, of course, but it happens.

Once, we had this moment. We’d just pulled back from a counterattack near Bohatyr to regroup—mentally and physically. They put us in some half-destroyed house where a psychological support team was working. You know, girls from the rear who aren’t just there to bake pies but also… well, you get it.

There was this one girl. Maybe twenty. Or older—who knows? She didn’t look like a schoolkid anymore. She said:

"I know how to help. Not just with coffee or words."

And damn, after a week in a dugout sleeping in shifts, eating canned shit, and listening to mortar screams, she just hugged us. First one guy, then another. And yeah—it was real. No romance, no flowers, no dates. Just bodies. Warmth. A fucking person.

Some people say:

This is rock bottom.
This is degrading.
This isn’t who we are.

But I’ll tell you this:
When you fight for your life every day, when you watch your brothers get torn in half, when another guy hasn’t gotten a text from his mom in months—you start cherishing shit you used to take for granted.

Yeah, it’s dirty.
Yeah, it’s painful.
But sometimes you just need to be touched.
To remember you’re still human.
Not a rifle that shoots and dies.

#wartalk


I don’t mean to exoticize or mock anyone involved in this story. But such stories feel realer than the content put out by patriotic media of selfless heroes and victorious missions. Instead of forever war, soldiers yearn for human touch.

The 79th returned to the topic on May 30. No doubt disabled troops angered by the lack of government support can rest easy with such discounts:

🔥 Brothers, I don’t know about you, but honestly, my soul feels a little lighter.

Turns out, in Mykolaiv, prostitutes are giving huge discounts to veterans and to those who managed to get out of the trenches for a couple of days.
They even take in disabled guys — and not out of pity, but with understanding. No unnecessary words. No questions.
Discounts up to 50%.


However, the 79th seems to use sexual desire for its own purposes as well. This post from February 12 is pinned:

#girls_of_79

⚡️⚡️ Due to insufficient fundraising, one of our soldiers, Asya Kostenko (call sign "Tear"), an FPV drone operator, started selling her photos.

💸 And through this, significant funds were raised.

🔥 Putting aside moral conventions, she pushed past her own boundaries and prioritized the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

🔥 This is a true case where beauty meets battlefield prowess.

❤️ Asya’s record includes numerous destroyed Russian trenches and self-funded drones. 🫡


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The least revealing photo attached to the above post

Lost bodies in Sumy
The 79th alternates such content with darker announcements.

On May 31, they reposted this cry for help from the mother of a ‘missing in action’ soldier from their unit:

Military Unit A0224 79 AAF [Air Assault Forces - EIU] = | | | WHERE IS MY HUSBAND? | | | Return him to me! How could you take him and transfer him to the infantry without proper training? You managed that quickly! | | | RETURN MY BELOVED AND DEAR PRSON| | | You have children and wives—you must understand, even for a moment, imagine WHAT it’s like to live and NOT KNOW WHERE THEY ARE OR WHAT’S HAPPENING TO THEM | | | RETURN HIM | | | I BEG YOU, RETURN HIM | | | . Karpovych Dmytro Ihorovych, in February 2025, was TAKEN by YOU and transferred from Military Unit A1267 to your so-called "elite" Military Unit A0224 79 AAF, to the 2nd Battalion and 5th Company, and went missing within 12 days | | | During these days, after his first mission, he suffered a concussion and was hospitalized for 6 days. The doctor discharged him with a mandatory bed rest for 2 more weeks and a pile of medications, but how many days did you give him to recover? 3 days? I have all the documents proving he should not have been deployed—physical exertion was forbidden for him, yet you took him on a mission where he went missing within 2 days. YOU KNOW WHERE MY HUSBAND IS, but you remain silent because it’s a "gray zone, already occupied." Where is your evacuation? Why aren’t you retrieving the 300 [wounded - EIU]? And then you write...

(Paywall with free option.)

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https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... es-in-sumy

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Dated but relevant.

WSW: On the history of Washington’s ties to the Ukrainian Banderites and their role in the war against Russia
June 1, 2025 natyliesb
By Clara Weiss, World Socialist Website, 9/13/24

Moss Robeson is a young independent researcher in New York City who has run a prominent blog, “Bandera Lobby,” about the history and contemporary political role of the movement associated with the Ukrainian Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera. He has documented the ties of both the Republican and Democratic parties to the Ukrainian Banderites and neo-Nazis and their role in the Ukrainian state apparatus and military. The WSWS recently spoke with him about his research.

Clara Weiss: Your blog, “Bandera Lobby,” has been covering extensively the role of neo-Nazis within the Ukrainian state and armies, as well as their ties to the political establishment in the US and other NATO countries and the Ukrainian far right. What motivated you to initiate this blog and conduct this research?

Moss Robeson: I first got interested in this issue of Ukrainian Nazis back in 2014. That eventually led me down this rabbit hole, which became more of a historical research project about the history of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) in the United States. It wasn’t until 2019 that I realized that the OUN and, in particular the Banderite faction, the OUN-B, still exists.

Funny enough, I was living in New Paltz, New York, and as it turned out, the oldest Bandera monument in the world that I know of was located on the other side of the mountains outside my window in Ellenville, New York, which is where they have their main summer camp in the United States. That realization led me to go from being an amateur historian to an amateur journalist overnight. They largely use the same front groups, so having researched this network as it existed during the Cold War it was pretty simple to connect the dots to what is going on today.

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The “Heroes” monument in Ellenville, New York. It includes OUN symbols and busts of OUN leaders Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych, as well as Symon Petliura, a Ukrainian nationalist and antisemite responsible for pogroms against thousands of Jews during the civil war in Ukraine after the October Revolution.

I started the blog in 2020. Grzegorz Rossoliński-Liebe’s biography of Bandera which came out in 2014 does mention that the OUN-B still exists. But given the fact that no one else was covering this I felt an obligation that I couldn’t let go of it once I started writing about it. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I’ve started to pay more attention to the neo-Nazis in Ukraine, especially the Azov movement.

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Azov Battalion soldiers with Nazi flag. [Photo by Heltsumani / CC BY-SA 4.0]

I don’t have any professional training as a historian, journalist or academic. It’s kind of scandalous that I should be the person doing this. But journalists will not touch the subject. There has been a lot of groundbreaking work on the history of the OUN and their role in the Holocaust in the past decade or so. A lot of the leading historians on that issue Grzegorz Rossoliński-Liebe, John-Paul Himka and Per Anders Rudling, all discovered that the OUN still exists, if only because when they published their research, these Banderites came after them. To those who doubt this is real and think that this is some kind of conspiracy theory cooked up in the Kremlin—there are a number of top historians who can testify to the fact that the OUN-B still exists and remains a force to be reckoned with.

CW: When Rossoliński-Liebe tried to present his biography in Ukraine back in 2012, he was attacked by the OUN and had to hold his event, barricaded behind the German embassy. To his credit, he still publicly speaks about the crimes of Bandera. However, I think what we are confronted with now is that this layer of academics, including many who have done very important work, have adapted themselves to the war propaganda. That explains your own position.

MR: Yes, I don’t have a job to lose. I think they’re all to some extent concerned about being labeled as responsible for giving validity to Russian propaganda. John-Paul Himka’s book on the OUN and the Holocaust, the first scholarly book of its kind, came out in 2021, just a few months before the invasion, which is really awkward timing. And Rossoliński-Liebe’s book came out in 2014. The ones who were outside the German embassy in 2012 when he presented his book were from the Svoboda party, a straight-up neo-fascist party with its fair share of neo-Nazis.

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Book cover of Rossoliński-Liebe’s biography of Stepan Bandera (c) ibidem Verlag [Photo: ibidem Verlag]

I came across some evidence that the international OUN-B played a role in mobilizing Ukrainian nationalists against Rossoliński-Liebe that year. In Germany too they tried to organize a boycott. They had an international OUN-B conference in Munich that year and organized a new umbrella organization, the Association of Ukrainian Organizations in Germany. I’m sure this was high up on their agenda—to put pressure on Rossoliński-Liebe. In 2012, their “commandment” of the year (from the OUN’s “Decalogue of Ukrainian Nationalists”) was to “Remember the great days of our struggle for liberation.” This meant to fight for “historical truth” but really to repress it. In Sweden, they wrote letters to Per Anders Rudling’s university [Lund University], accusing him of inciting hatred against Ukrainians. That came from the Canadian Conference in Support of Ukraine, which is literally a coalition of OUN-B front groups in Canada. Also, in 2012, Himka was disinvited from a conference by the Ukrainian Jewish Encounter in Canada. The chairman of this organization is a Ukrainian-Canadian philanthropist, James Temerty, who personally disinvited Himka after the Ukrainian nationalists pressured him to do so. They’ve waged a war on this small group of historians doing this important work, and I think it’s had a chilling effect.

CW: I agree that there is fear of the fascists. But it is not only that. The New York Times now regularly cites Ukrainian neo-Nazis as “sources of information.” If it was just a bunch of Nazis going after you as a historian, that’s one thing, but this is the official line at this point. But this only makes it all the more important to speak up. You cannot oppose this war or the Putin regime from a principled standpoint without an understanding of that history. We have been opponents of the Russian invasion from the beginning, and we completely reject the lie that Putin is supposedly fighting against neo-Nazis in Ukraine. There’s no way to oppose this war or the Putin regime, for that matter, if you celebrate as heroes people who are actually mass murderers. So it’s a very troubling tendency among historians. I’m convinced that if historians would actually speak up and turn to the public to educate it, they would find an audience.

MR: I spoke at a conference in Berlin last year that was organized by Junge Welt, and we had hoped to get one of these historians or someone else of their caliber for the first presentation. We could not find anybody, so I had to do it myself. It was fine, but I am not a historian. It would have been a lot more powerful if we had had a credentialed scholar.

CW: Can you speak more about the glorification of Bandera in the US? How does it play into the way the war in Ukraine is being covered?

MR: It is ironic that, historically, the CIA did not want to work with Bandera. At first they chose to work with this faction of Banderites who had abandoned Bandera after the war and claimed to have been “reformed” and “seen the light of Western democracy” and so forth. In the 1950s the CIA engineered a coup within the OUN-B. By the late 1950s, they had had some success in marginalizing Bandera. Then, the KGB assassinated him to make it look like a suicide, but they messed up and instead turned him into this martyr. On the other hand, while they found Bandera troublesome and internally labeled him a fascist, the CIA whitewashed the OUN and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) to justify its collaboration with “former” Banderites. So, of course, he and his legacy benefitted from that. By the end of the Cold War, the glorification of Bandera was really normalized in the Ukrainian diaspora.

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Polish civilian victims of the UPA massacre in Lipniki on March 26, 1943, public domain via Wikimedia commons.

The OUN-B itself took over much of the organized Ukrainian diaspora. For example, at the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America they staged a coup in 1980, just before the Reagan administration came in. That’s when I think the glorification of Bandera in the US probably reached its peak. In 1981, Yaroslav Stetsko, at that time the leader of the OUN-B, was invited to come to Washington to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the so-called renewal of Ukrainian statehood on June 30, 1941, when Stetsko himself declared this pro-Nazi government in Western Ukraine. After that, the OUN-B spearheaded a massive series of pogroms in Western Ukraine. A Senator, Alfonse D’Amato from New York, sponsored a resolution calling on the United States to officially recognize this anniversary. Stetsko and his wife, Slava Stetsko, were welcomed to Capitol Hill. Tip O’Neill, the Democratic Speaker of the House at the time, was there with them. They had more allies among the Republicans, but there was a bipartisan group that welcomed them to Washington D.C. In 1982, there was an anniversary at Capitol Hill to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (although it was really created in 1943). And then in 1983, to celebrate the 25th annual Captive Nations’ Week, the Stetskos once again came back to Washington to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Anti-Bolshevik Bloc of Nations. For that, Stetsko got to shake hands with Ronald Reagan, George Bush and the UN Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick. This was a huge PR victory for them. The normalization of this [in the US] was a very important prerequisite for the normalization of neo-Nazis in Ukraine.

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Bandera’s OUN and Nazi officials at joint celebration dedicated to the establishment of Ukrainian statehood in Western Ukraine on July 7, 1941.

I’d like to make a distinction between the Banderites and Ukrainian Nationalists more generally and the hard-core neo-Nazis in Ukraine. For example, the Banderites tend to come from Western Ukraine, and the Azov movement comes from Kharkiv and consists largely of Russian speakers. While the Banderites are Christian nationalists, Azov has a lot of neo-Pagans. A big part of their Pagan beliefs is that Ukraine is the real Aryan homeland. But when the Nazis are put on the spot, they say, “Oh, we’re just Nationalists.” The Banderites won that fight for them. To glorify the Nazi collaborators from the OUN and UPA was normalized so the Nazis in a way stand on the shoulders of the Banderites. The OUN-B itself, their most important contribution to the ongoing conflict was ideological, whereas the neo-Nazis play very important roles in the military. The Banderites aren’t on the front lines of the real war, but they’re on the front lines of the memory war/information war. They infiltrated, in particular, the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory, infiltrated the Ukrainian Ministry of Education, and they took over the archives of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). They have a very specific agenda, and they’re kind of doing their own thing, whereas Azov is doing its own thing. But you probably couldn’t have one without the other.

I see 2014 as ushering in an era of what you might call the “Banderization of Ukraine” and 2022, contrary to what Putin said about “de-Nazifying Ukraine,” was the start of the Nazification of Ukraine. Azov and Bandera reached a point where you cannot question their status as heroes of Ukraine.

CW: Can you be more specific about the role that the Banderites and neo-Nazis are now playing in the Ukrainian state apparatus?

MR: I don’t think Ukraine is a Nazi state, but I do think that looking back, it will be clear that 2022 was the start of this process or at least a critical stage. The Nazis have reached really important roles in the military. A lot of the most elite units are neo-Nazi units or completely infested with these individuals. The OUN-B are mostly memory warriors. Since 2019, the OUN-B spearheaded the “Capitulation Resistance movement,” which was just one group of the “No capitulation movement” led by Azov. But the “Capitulation Resistance movement” was essentially an OUN-B front. One of its leaders, Andriy Yusov, is now a spokesperson for the chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Kirill Budanov. There’s actually a video of Yusov, the day of the Odessa Massacre in 2014, giving orders to people to march on the anti-Maidan camp.

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Andryi Yusov, now the spokesperson of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence, addressing a pro-Maidan rally in Odessa in February 2014 [Photo by Yuriy Kvach / CC BY-NC-SA 3.0]

There’s something called “UNITED 24 media,” which was created by the Ministry of Digital Transformation. The head of that ministry is Mykhailo Fedorov, who’s a very important person in Zelensky’s inner circle. They made a video about the military’s “top five super units”—three of them were from Azov, and one of the others was the “Da Vinci Wolves,” which is now closely linked to another splinter group from Azov, “Honor.” That’s coming from the Ukrainian government itself, that the Nazis are the elite of the military. That will obviously have consequences. People will often point to the fact that the Nazis and Azov, in particular, don’t do well in elections. I think that could change when and if Ukraine ever does have an election again. This war is the best thing that’s ever happened to the Nazis in Ukraine, for sure.

CW: Azov already ran summer camps for children before the war began. I don’t think that you can really discuss the problem of Ukrainian fascism outside the question of the crimes of Stalinism which have led to an immense disorientation in the working class. At the same time, I certainly don’t think that the working class is the principal base of the Nazis. Our Comrade Bogdan Syrotiuk, who is now imprisoned, wrote a very interesting article about how the OUN terrorized the Ukrainian civilian population in the civil war that followed the defeat of the Nazis in 1945. They went after everyone they considered their political enemy, and they’re doing the same thing today. There’s also a parallel here to what is happening internationally: This promotion of fascism is coming from the top. We’re not talking about an organic movement of Brownshirts from below. They’re being armed with NATO weapons and promoted at the highest level of the government. And that is extremely dangerous.

MR: Neo-Nazis around the world will, of course, benefit from the normalization of Azov’s Nazi symbols. I remember there was a video released by the Ron DeSantis campaign where there was a Sonnenrad [Sun Wheel] spinning in the background. There was rightfully outrage about that, but what do you expect if we’re arming units in Ukraine that use the same symbol? It’s going to blow back on us. I know there are some connections between American and Ukrainian neo-Nazis. Maybe not as much as people feared there would be. But in the long term, they’ll all benefit from this, for sure.

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Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with his face superimposed over a Sonnenrad and the Florida state flag. [Photo: Nate Hochman]

CW: Can you speak about the ties of the Democratic Party to these tendencies?

MR: During the DNC, the “United ethnic women for Harris,” a group within the DNC, had a party at this Ukrainian Cultural Center in Chicago which at least used to have a Bandera portrait in the conference room. In the Illinois division of that group, the Banderites play a very important role. Their leader in Chicago, Pavlo Bandriwsky, is the local vice president for the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America, and he’s responsible for government relations. In January 2023, Antony Blinken paid a visit to the Ukrainian community in Chicago at this same Cultural Center, and there’s a picture where he’s sitting right next to Bandriwsky, whose code name in the OUN-B is allegedly “The Strategist.” In any case, there’s no doubt that he’s an important OUN-B member in the United States.

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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (center) during his visit to Chicago’s Ukrainian diaspora in January 2023. To his left is Pavlo Bandriwsky, a leading OUN-B member. [Image: US State Department]

Historically, the Ukrainian nationalists were much more closely linked to the Republican Party. But they’ve long had allies in the Democratic Party as well. For example, the Levin family dynasty in Michigan. There was Andy Levin, until recently a congressman, and so was his father, Sandy Levin, and Carl Levin, who was in the Senate. They’ve all had close relationships with the Banderites, personal friendships. Andy Levin, the youngest, around the time that Russia invaded Ukraine, said that Borys Potapenko taught him everything he knows about Ukraine. Well, Potapenko is literally the head of the international coordinating body of OUN-B front groups.

I think the ties with the Republican Party are probably still more direct. In 2020, there was a Ukrainian Americans for Biden, affiliated with the DNC, and there was a Ukrainians for Trump, affiliated with the RNC. Ukrainian Americans for Biden had at least two or three Banderites involved. One of the advisers was a very important OUN-B member, Askold Lozynskyj, who engineered this coup that the Banderites did of the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America in 1980. On the other hand, Ukrainians for Trump was essentially an OUN-B front. The group behind it was called the Suburban Council for Voters in Illinois, which was tied to the hip of the local branch of an OUN-B front group. The Banderites are split—some vote Republican, some Democrat—but they tend to feel more at home in the Republican Party.

CW: The Democrats are not a fascist party, but they’re playing a critical role in legitimizing the fascists, both in the United States and in Ukraine. In the US, the legitimization of Ukrainian fascism has been historically closely linked to the rehabilitation of fascism and fascist conceptions more broadly. As you noted, the 1980s were a turning point. That was also when the “Holodomor,” a narrative of the Ukrainian Nazi collaborators, was accepted. At the same time, during the Historikerstreit in Germany, Ernst Nolte sought to justify the crimes of the Nazi regime.

MR: The Banderites have played a very important role in pushing this narrative of the Holodomor, not just as a genocide, but one that was worse than the Holocaust. They push that it had 7-10 million if not more victims. Stefan Romaniw, who just died this summer in Australia, was the leader of the OUN-B worldwide, from 2009 to 2022, and since the mid-2000s he was the international coordinator for Holodomor awareness for the Ukrainian World Congress. In that capacity, he worked very closely with the Yushchenko government and the foreign ministry and security services of Ukraine to push this propaganda. That’s another example of their role on the front lines of the memory wars.

CW: This raises the question of the strategy pursued by the Ukrainian government and the US in the war against Russia. They advocate now, as they did in the Cold War, the carve-up of the former Soviet Union. Russia today is of course not the Soviet Union any more, but there is a continuity in terms of the objectives being pursued by the imperialist powers and the fascists. In a recent piece on your blog about the campaign to “decolonize Russia”—a buzzword among academics—you document how the dismemberment of Russia has been central to the plans of the Ukrainian far right for a “Greater Ukraine.” Can you speak more about this?

MR: The Banderites tend not to be as open about their ambitions for a greater Ukraine as they are about breaking up Russia. But, of course, they hope that this would be to the benefit of Ukraine expanding its territory. The Banderites have always co-opted the language of decolonization and anti-imperialism when they talk about this. I mentioned earlier that they had this organization, the Anti-Bolshevik Bloc of Nations (ABN), which was created in 1946. I’d like to quote the description of this from Scott and John Lee Anderson from Inside the League, their book about the World Anti-Communist League. They described it as “the largest and most important umbrella for former Nazi collaborators in the world.” It had its roots in 1943 in a conference in Ukraine, but when the OUN-B had its first conference in 1941 they already outlined this whole vision, including what became the slogan of the ABN, “Freedom for the nation and individual”—sounds nice, but … It’s been alleged that Alfred Rosenberg, an ideologue of Nazi Germany and the head of the Reich Ministry for Occupied Territories, played a role in this conference. I’m not so sure about that, but an official from his Ministry, Gerhard Von Mende, did play an important role in the expansion of the ABN. By 1950, there were components of the ABN which stemmed from the so-called national committees that were set up within Alfred Rosenberg’s ministry. Rosenberg wasn’t a fan of the OUN, but they essentially had the same vision of breaking up Russia, and the Banderites have never let go of this extreme dream.

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Alfred Rosenberg in 1933 [Photo by Bundesarchiv, Bild 183-1985-0723-500 / Bauer, Friedrich Franz / CC-BY-SA 3.0 / CC BY-NC-SA 3.0]

You could say that the grandfather of this vision was Mykola Mikhnovsky, who also coined the slogan “Ukraine for Ukrainians.” So this idea of expanding Ukraine went hand in hand with purging it of Poles and Jews and others. Today, a lot of the contemporary leaders of the OUN-B network in the Ukrainian diaspora are maybe 70 years old and a lot of them cut their teeth politically in an organization called the “Ukrainian Student Association of Mikhnovsky.” That’s one way in which they helped keep alive this fascistic fantasy of theirs. When Yaroslav Stetsko died, they had on paper a government-in-exile, stemming from this declaration he had made in 1941. Stetsko’s successor as the head of this “Ukrainian state board” was a guy from Michigan, Bohdan Fedorak, a mentor to Borys Potapenko. Fedorak had to resign from the Ukrainians for Bush campaign after it came out that he was an important OUN-B member. He himself wrote in the 1990s about this “Greater Ukraine” project.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, one of the priorities for the OUN has been to re-activate the ABN, which was dissolved in 1996. They recreated it as the Anti-Imperial Bloc of Nations. Through this project, they have been much more explicit about the goal of breaking up Russia and in the process potentially expanding Ukraine’s borders. The idea of Greater Ukraine is so improbable that they don’t talk about it so much, but there has been a broader movement of promoting this goal of breaking up Russia, and the Banderites have been quite involved in that. There’s something called the “Post-Russia Forum.” One of the coordinators of that is from an organization called “Free Idel-Ural,” this landlocked region in Russia. The “Free Idel-Ural” organization has ties to the OUN-B which I’ve written about. The “Idel Ural” committee within the ABN was an example of a group that stemmed from Alfred Rosenberg’s ministry. So there is a straight line you can draw from this idea back to Nazi Germany. That shared vision is one of the reasons why the Banderites wanted to fight alongside the Nazis.

CW: The NATO-backed Russian oppositionist Ilya Ponomaryov has also been involved in that Forum. They have a map of a broken-up Russia on their website.

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The front page of the “Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum”

MR: Yes. Alongside these Russian units fighting for Ukraine, there’s also a lesser known unit called the “Siberian Battalion,” which allegedly has taken in a bunch of anarchists. The OUN-B has done some fundraising for that unit. They are trying to support that project which seems to be overseen by the Ukrainian military intelligence. The Ukrainian military intelligence has its own international legion. That includes a lot of these far-right units that were doing these incursions into Russia, and Budanov, of course, had that map of a partitioned Russia [hanging in his office]. It seems clear to me that he is the one at the top of this project. If I’m not mistaken, Budanov gave his first interview when he became intelligence chief to an outfit of OUN-B members. There are various signs to me that the OUN-B has a relationship with Budanov’s office, which seems to be the most involved in pushing these maximalist goals about breaking up Russia.

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A map of a carved-up Russia. Both the former head of the Ukrainian armed forces, Valery Zaluzhny, and the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Kirill Budanov, have been photographed with this map in their offices since 2022.
CW: You have endorsed the campaign to free our Comrade Bogdan Syrotiuk, noting on Twitter/X, that for his views “you get canceled” in the US, “but at least I don’t have to worry about the FBI and Nazis breaking down my door…!” How do you view the attack on free speech and the political climate in the US, especially since the beginning of the war in Ukraine?

MR: I personally have no fear that I’m going to be jailed or assaulted by Ukrainian nationalists. I do worry about the future if the situation in Ukraine deteriorates, and history starts to repeat itself and the Nazis end up fleeing to America. If we have a bunch of Azov guys relocating to the US, I would be a lot more scared. We’re seeing the beginning of a new McCarthy era on this subject. The second “red scare” was largely triggered by this fearmongering over the “loss of China,” and the “loss of Ukraine” could spark a similar hysteria. The worse the situation is for Ukraine once the war ends, the greater the witch-hunt will be to scapegoat people allegedly responsible in the US. Ukrainian nationalists might go after people like us, accuse us of being Russian propagandists. Maybe the US government might even start to crack down on us as Russian propagandists. But I think it’s much less serious than the repression of free speech when it comes to opposing the genocide in Gaza. Maybe one day there will be more of a parity, but I feel more comfortable speaking about the climate around Ukraine.

CW: I wouldn’t put it that way. The repression over Gaza has been more overt because the political and ideological confusion over Ukraine has been so intense. With the invasion of Ukraine, the Putin regime made a tremendous gift to the imperialist powers. They had provoked it, they wanted it, and then it created a lot of confusion, certainly in Ukraine and Russia, but also in the US and Europe. Obviously, most people are opposed to the invasion, but then the question is from what standpoint do you oppose it and how do you understand the history of this war?

There actually has been a real witch-hunt in the arts. Anna Netrebko, for instance, was fired from the Met even though she opposed the invasion, simply for not caving in to the political demands that she condemn Putin. The climate created in academia and the media has been extremely difficult, and there’s been a complete silence on what is really happening. With the Gaza genocide, more people understand more clearly what is happening. The Israeli government openly says “we’re perpetrating genocide,” and the US government is openly backing it. What has changed is that we’ve seen the beginnings of a mass anti-war movement, which we did not have over the war in Ukraine. There simply were no mass protests then. And the ruling class is so terrified that the protests against the Gaza genocide could spread to the working class and raise other issues, such as the war in Ukraine, that they feel compelled to respond with an extremely aggressive crackdown on democratic rights. But both the war in Ukraine and the genocide are part of an emerging world war. They cannot really be separated.

MR: These are very good points. The Banderites throughout the Cold War were very explicit that, in their view, World War III was an inevitability. They’re not necessarily the ones dragging us into World War III today, but they have played a very important role in getting us this far. I guess I feel that if only people did speak up more, especially in academia, about these subjects, it would be a very different situation. The war in Ukraine is like a house of cards. There are all these Nazis; a Ukrainian military victory is a complete fantasy. But once they did speak up, yes, there probably would be much more repression. I don’t feel any fear in this regard, but perhaps that’s because I’m not in academia.

CW: That certainly helps explain why you are doing this work, which has been extremely important. Thank you very much for the interview.

MR: Thank you. I first came across the WSWS in college about 10 years ago, and I’ve seen a lot of really great stuff there, and I know I probably should read more.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/06/wsw ... st-russia/

Moss Robeson does his homework. I recommend his newest project, Azov Lobby Blog, https://azovlobby.substack.com/.

*******

The offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the South Donetsk direction in dynamics. May 2025
June 2, 19:05

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The offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the South Donetsk direction in dynamics. May 2025

(Video at link.)

Chronology of changes in LBS and liberation of territory by the Vostok group in the South Donetsk direction from May 1 to May 31, 2025.

In May 2025, units of the Vostok group took control of more than 110 square kilometers of territory during a systematic penetration into the enemy's defense.

The following settlements were liberated: Volnoye Pole, Bogatyr, Otradnoye, Zelenoye Pole, Novopol.

The Far Eastern Express is moving at full speed toward the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, cutting through the enemy's defenses. Our guys continue to liberate the Donetsk People's Republic and the Zaporizhia region from the clutches of the Kiev junta.

@voin_dv - zinc They

have gained a good pace, considering that we are talking specifically about breaking through the enemy's prepared defenses.
Higher rates in May were only in the Sumy and Konstantinovsky directions, where the enemy front was actually broken through.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9875888.html

Theft of the Super Bison
June 2, 23:07

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A Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group entered the enemy's rear and managed to hijack a Canadian LAV "Super Bison" armored personnel carrier, the driver of which was away on business. An attempt to catch up with the hijacked armored personnel carrier was unsuccessful.

(Video at link worth a chuckle.)

I don't think there was such a small boar among the trophies before.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9876440.html

Dynamics of Liberation
June 3, 9:00

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Lost Armour statistics on the advancement of the Russian Armed Forces. May was one of the most effective months of the past year. A total of 581 square kilometers of territory were liberated.

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It was only in October and November 2024 that things got tougher, when the Russian Armed Forces took advantage of the Kursk adventure to break through the front in Donbass. You can see how the dynamics changed after the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in the Kursk direction.

Infographics https://t.me/boris_rozhin/166969

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9876661.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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