Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Nov 24, 2023 1:15 pm

All for the war
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/23/2023

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In his visit this week to kyiv, which came just hours after that of his American counterpart, Boris Pistorius, he confirmed the notable increase in German military assistance to Ukraine. Germany had already announced its intention to double aid to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, so the more than 1.3 billion euros promised in its meeting with Zelensky should not be considered a surprise. Pistorius's gesture is representative fundamentally in two aspects. Firstly, because both in the form - an announcement during a surprise visit to Kiev - and in the amount mentioned, it is suspiciously similar to those made by Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin in the more than year and a half since the mobilization of Western resources to provide material and financing to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Secondly, it is the clearest manifestation of the evolution that Germany has made. The German Government has gone from being criticized for its initial reluctance to send war material and pressured for weeks to finally approve the shipment of Leopard tanks to presenting itself, at least in its forms and intentions, as the substitute for the United States in case the Washington attendance declines. As on the Palestinian issue, where Annalena Baerbock's stance has been even tougher than Benyamin Netanyahu's, Germany now leads the hardline wing of the European Union when it comes to Ukraine. Because Pistorius's presence in kyiv and the intention to double military assistance are much more representative of the German position than his chancellor's words last week. After months of insisting that the West will assist Ukraine “as long as it is necessary,” last week Olaf Scholz surprised by stating that he was willing to “continue dialogue with Vladimir Putin.” Despite the change in position that could be interpreted from those words, the fact that there is no dialogue to continue makes it clear that this is the same empty discourse that EU leaders periodically use to avoid presenting themselves as hawks with no intention of seeking peace. .

As shown by Volodymyr Zelensky's drive this week to place his message in the English-speaking press, both in the British and American markets, the German visit and the promises of increased military assistance from the most important country in the European Union do not They have resolved Kiev's doubts and concerns about the coming months. The European Union has admitted, with statements from numerous high-ranking officials, that it is not capable of replacing the United States with regard to military assistance, something that has also been confirmed by the facts. European countries have criticized the military industry for not having been able to increase ammunition production to be able to fulfill the promise to deliver one million artillery shells before March 2024. All parties already admit that, after delivering around 30% in the seven months since the proposal was made, the objective will not be met. Faced with the reproach of the political class, the industry's employers have responded with a dart of their own: the commitment to increase production, he alleges, implies an adaptation that is only viable with long-term contracts. That is, European industry is demanding public contracts beyond the war in Ukraine to increase production and provide Kiev with the artillery it needs to continue the war. Contradictions, clashes and differences of interest emerge in this war causing even more tension for kyiv's proxy.

The shortage of ammunition, the uncertainty about US assistance despite the good words of its political authorities and the inability of the European industry to supply Ukraine with a million projectiles (among the 27 member countries) join the international situation. to create a perfect storm in which optimists on one side and pessimists on the other assume that we are facing a turning point. According to this view, the failure of the Ukrainian offensive to advance enough on the front to force Russia to negotiate the capitulation demanded by Ukraine would be the straw that breaks the camel's back of Western patience and ability to finance a eternal war that cannot be won. The reality is more nuanced and none of the countries leading kyiv's war effort has given up on obtaining the necessary funds to equip future offensives. And even the Kremlin has openly stated that the United States' difficulties in obtaining the funds requested from Congress will only be temporary.

However, two issues remain up in the air: the effect that the war in Gaza may have on the supply of weapons to Ukraine and the influence of the electoral process on the United States. President Zelensky has referred to this in his last interview, granted to the American media Fox News and that he is, without a doubt, the information reference for Donald Trump and the Trumpist wing of the Republican Party. The war in the Middle East represents one more condition for the military effort of Ukraine, which in these barely forty days of Israeli bombings, has seen with concern how a part of the artillery projectiles destined for Kiev were finally diverted to Israel. With the Middle East as a claim, the Ukrainian president wanted to draw the attention of presidential candidate Donald Trump, whose circle in Congress continues to block the approval of new funds for Ukraine, using the argument that motivates him most: Iran.

In his conversation with Fox News , Zelensky wanted to insist that his country is “at the center of global risks” and link his enemy to the favorite scapegoat of the former president of the United States. Although Iranian-designed drones have meant a qualitative change for Russia in the way it has waged war, introducing drone technology in a much more integrated way into its doctrine, it is not the Shahed that have caused the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. . Still, that seems to be the argument with which Zelensky wants to explain a complex problem to Donald Trump using extremely simple arguments. “We gave many messages to Iran not to give them drones, not to give them licenses to produce and build a new drone production factory,” Zelensky said about military cooperation on the kamikaze drone issue between Tehran and Moscow.

Iran is just the claim with which the Ukrainian president's entourage wants to draw the attention of the Trumpist wing of the Republican Party, which sees Tehran as its clearest enemy. However, it is not only about unlocking the $60 billion that Joe Biden is seeking, but also about attracting Donald Trump to the orthodoxy of the need to continue the war until the end. “I invite President Trump,” Zelensky stated, adding that “if he comes here, I will need… 24 minutes to explain to President Trump that he cannot manage this war,” he stated a few days ago in another interview with NBC . Peace negotiations, even a temporary truce or the search for ways to redirect the conflict towards diplomatic channels are not possible for Ukraine in conditions of weakness, so Zelensky's attempt is none other than to convince all authorities of this. relevant, mainly in the United States and the European Union.

In the case of Brussels, there is no movement or party capable of forming a significant opposition to the decisions of the European Commission. However, in Washington, that blocking minority and fear of the arrival of Donald Trump - whose policy towards Ukraine was similar to that of Obama-Biden during his presidency, so the Republican candidate's pro-Russian stance is more than questionable - make war propaganda a more important aspect. To do this, Zelensky has decided to appeal to the international situation and make Iran the way to explain the war to justify its financing. A

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/23/todo-por-la-guerra/

This is a good reason for Russia to finish this thing as opportunity arises to avoid escalation.

A day in the military city
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/24/2023
Original Article: Denis Grigoriuk

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It had rained all day before. In some areas, snow fell, although it failed to set. It was the first snow of the year, which did not arrive until the second week of November. The fall has been so warm that it seemed like snow couldn't be expected until February. Apart from the wind, the day turned out to be calm, without cannon fire, without work of the air defenses or sounds of arrivals , nothing to remind us that this is a military city. The silence was explained by the cloudy weather, which makes it difficult for birds to fly , so the artillery of both sides was hidden waiting for the wings. Such quiet days are an anomaly in modern Donetsk. Saying it is like a curse, you will soon find that the silence is broken into pieces by the noise of a bomb explosion. So we keep it inside so as not to challenge the silence.

It rained until Monday morning. She was afraid to imagine what could be happening at that moment in the trenches of the industrial zone of Avdeevka, where the fighting continues and Russian troops are slowly but systematically expelling Ukrainian troops from the positions they occupy around the city. I remember how, in November 2017, around Gorlovka, the mud stuck under my boots and every step in the trench made it seem like my legs were going to sink permanently. It is impossible to move quickly in these conditions, although we managed to do so to escape a Ukrainian grenade. If you want to live, you have to have the strength to do it. In the end, the car took us to Donetsk even though it barely had any wheels left from navigating shrapnel.

At that time, the contrast between the front line and the rear that was the center of Donetsk did not seem surprising. The entire population was accustomed to the fact that the war was limited to the line of contact. It was believed to be one of the calmest years, although in reality there were daily battles just like in the hot years . This quiet day seemed to take us back to the period when it seemed like the war was in a distant place and there was a semblance of tranquility. Only the soldiers returning from the front, whose boots were covered in a thick layer of mud and had a tired look, reminded us that things were very difficult at the front.

On quiet days like this, it is possible to be distracted from everyday military life, focus on current problems and return to military reality only through Telegram, where messages about the battle of Avdeevka continue to appear. It has a touch of dangerous carelessness, it must be admitted, but one cannot live without it. If not, our heads would explode.

After midnight, the artillery made itself felt. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continued to advance in the direction of Avdeevka. This could mean the reactivation of artillery from that side and the bombs falling again on Donetsk's civilian infrastructure. Any resident of Donetsk is aware that in case of problems for the Ukrainian troops on the front, shelling immediately begins in the cities of the DPR. It is a military fact. It cannot be assumed that it will occur on some “legitimate objective.” There was no logic in the bombings before and it seems that in these years it has not appeared either.

However, on Monday the city came back to life after a rainy and relatively calm weekend (although on Saturday the Petrovsky district was bombed with the help of drones). Jumping over puddles, the population of Donetsk headed to work. There was no one at the tram stop. I thought it was because of the bombings a few weeks ago, because maybe the population is afraid to go through there now, but I thought I would ask what was happening.

I approached the destroyed building of the Department of Labor and Social Protection. It was surrounded and plywood. The protection hid broken bricks, collapsed beams and the consequences of the impact of American HIMARS projectiles. The upper floors no longer exist, they are completely destroyed. In a nearby residential building, the windows have been replaced with the new double plastic plates. The guard dog at the site where construction of the Donetsk metro once began barked when he saw the tram approaching along the largest street. Before, the tram passed by the building, but because of that Ukrainian attack, now the last stop is a little further away. It cannot be said that it is much safer, since fifty meters from that place there was a bombing this summer. But Donetsk is also adapting to this, as well as the rest of the restrictions that war entails. Somehow, citizens have adapted to the problems with water supply and heating and it is not difficult to walk a couple of hundred meters further to the tram stop. It doesn't matter that shells have already exploded there. In Donetsk, bombings can happen anywhere and at any time: at home, at work, driving around the city. The remains of shrapnel in windows can be found throughout the city, whether recent or from a long time ago. Only the local population remembers the dates of the bombings well.

Every place in the city seems to scream “Memento mori.” There is Pushkin Boulevard, where people walk their dogs, go to cafes, stand in line at Fénix's office. Right next door there is an expensive restaurant where part of the pavement clashes. It's too new and the color is completely different. The remains of shrapnel are perceptible around it, although the effect of the bomb is no longer perceptible. Next to this place there are stuffed animals, pointe shoes and figures of a little ballerina hanging on a tree. In this place, 12-year-old Katya died, walking with her grandmother to the opera on the day of Korsa 's funeral . Now the improved memorial and the remains on the sidewalk remember that tragedy.

Looking at Donetsk, it seems that the entire population tries to avoid thinking about possible bombings, that they think about something else even though they are aware of the inevitability of their occurrence. Putting yourself in the shoes of a victim of other bombings is not easy, but sooner or later you will have to face it. Until then, we must live without looking back. There is a counterbalance to this way of living: you may have the impression that death, war and horror are somewhere nearby, but they do not affect you directly. Everything changes exactly the moment you witness something tragic. Reality hits you and puts things back in place. The front is the only place where death is never forgotten, because it is not that it is close, but rather that it sleeps in the next room and waits in wait to claim a life.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/24/un-di ... d-militar/

Google Translator

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What's happening in the NWO zone: chronicle for November 23
November 23, 2023
Rybar

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In the Kherson direction , a difficult situation remains in Krynki , where the enemy today managed to expand the existing bridgehead. The assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces "Katran" managed to gain a foothold just south of the village in the forest. Now soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces are actively working on the landings they occupied. Almost certainly, after the onset of cold weather and hardening of the soil, the enemy will intensify the attack in this area.

In general, due to the autumn thaw, the intensity of combat operations on all fronts of the Northern Military District decreased. There are no significant changes in the Starobelsky and Soledarsky directions . In the Avdeevsky sector, the main battles, as before, are taking place in the Yasinovatsky industrial zone, where the enemy still holds a number of buildings on the western outskirts.

In the Orekhovsky sector, the Ukrainian Armed Forces made another attempt to advance in the fields near Rabotino , but having lost a tank and several armored vehicles, they retreated. In addition, at night the Russian Aerospace Forces launched strikes on Krivoy Rog: an enemy critical infrastructure facility was hit, but there are no details of the fire strike yet.

The situation on the front line and combat operations

In the Starobelsky direction, fighting continues in the Serebryansky forestry and on the Torsky ledge . More detailed information about the front configuration was not available. In the Belogorovka area , the forward command post of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was hit by a high-precision missile strike.


In the Avdeevsky sector, active hostilities continue in the Yasinovatskaya industrial zone . The outermost buildings in the west remain under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to which they are still clinging with all their might. Under constant onslaught of artillery and air power, the enemy will probably soon be forced to retreat. At the same time, according to our colleagues from the NGP Razvedka channel , in the Gorlovka sector the enemy managed to occupy a gray zone in three places northwest of Mayorsk . At the moment, it has not been possible to dislodge him from there; so far there are several detachments of up to three dozen people there.


In the Orekhovsky sector , without significant changes: late at night, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked Russian positions near Rabotino , using several armored personnel carriers and a tank. Having come under artillery fire, the enemy retreated with losses. In addition, the footage shows the remains of equipment from previous offensives, including Leopards.

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In the Kherson direction, after a slight improvement in the weather, Ukrainian marines intensified their attacks in the forest area adjacent to Krynki . The positions of the Ukrainian Navy marines in the village itself are already quite strong, so the enemy concentrated its efforts on expanding the bridgehead. As a result of several days of activity of the assault groups of the Katran strike group, they were able to advance a little to the south in the forest. The main goal is to gain a foothold under the cover of vegetation and continue moving deeper.

Ten Marines were deployed to one of the positions last night along with a Bumblebee flamethrower to carry out an assault on Russian positions. At the same time, in private houses near the landings, a stronghold of the combined formations of the 35th, 36th, 38th Marine Brigades was equipped. Ammunition was delivered there, as well as the Carl Gustav RPG.

At night, Russian artillerymen carried out targeted shelling of the crossing areas on Frolov Island, as a result of which five marines were wounded and killed. Four more were injured during the evacuation. Similarly, Russian troops shelled the vicinity of the large and small railway bridges on Aleshkinsky Island , disrupting the rotation of forward units.

So far, the enemy has not been able to achieve a significant result in the sector. However, the intensity of attacks and attempts to enter the forest area has increased. If previously the Marines were only “probing” the defense, now they are trying to penetrate 200-300 meters deep, which, as the soil hardens, can lead to larger-scale attacks at Krynki.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas
In the Kursk region, the enemy shelled the village of Gorodishche , Rylsky district, twice in a day. As a result of the strikes, power lines, a gas pipeline and several residential buildings were damaged; there were no casualties among the population.

In the Belgorod region, a Ukrainian Armed Forces drone attacked the village of Kozinka , Grayvoronsky district. One person received shrapnel wounds to his legs and was taken to hospital for surgery. The enemy fired six shells at the village of Prilesye ; there is no official information about casualties and destruction.

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Ukrainian formations continue to shell the front-line cities of the DPR . Makeevka , Donetsk , Yasinovataya and Gorlovka were under enemy fire throughout the day , in the latter one person was wounded. In addition, in the Nikitovsky district of Gorlovka, extensive damage to housing and civil infrastructure was recorded, power lines were damaged, as a result of which the city was partially without power.


In the Zaporozhye region, after yesterday’s attack by Ukrainian forces in the Tokmak area on the Rossiya 24 film crew, journalist Boris Maksudov , unfortunately, died in the morning as a result of multiple shrapnel wounds.

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In the Kherson region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces again attacked Novaya Kakhovka , Kakhovka , Aleshki , Podstepnoye , Kardashinka and Radensk on the left bank of the Dnieper . The attack caused damage to civilian infrastructure, but no one was injured.

Political events
About the meeting of Charles Michel with the presidents of Ukraine and Moldova


Yesterday in Kiev there was a meeting between the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, and Vladimir Zelensky and the President of Moldova, Maia Sandu , about joining the EU. Michel warned that both countries face a long negotiation process ahead, which is "full of demands and sometimes disappointing."

Talk about European integration of Ukraine and Moldova still looks like a fiction. Moreover, the EU Ambassador to Moldova has already stated that the process could last for a decade and during this time the ruling circles must remain committed to the European path. However, the past local elections in Moldova showed that the ruling PAS party lost part of its electorate. At the same time, the strengthening of Sandu’s dictatorship is taking place precisely under the banner of “defending democracy” and joining the EU.

In Kiev, Sandu once again pompously thanked Ukrainian soldiers for “protecting” Moldova and added that in return, Moldovan railways are becoming “roads of solidarity” that “will help Ukrainian goods reach export markets.” As we have written more than once, Moldova is being made the main transit territory for the export of Ukrainian products, which is why Moldovan entrepreneurs have been suffering for a long time. While Sandu promises to do everything for Ukraine, Moldovan farmers yesterday moved to Chisinau for another protest.

Due to the refusal of the Moldovan authorities to limit Ukrainian exports following the example of Eastern European countries, local farmers are going bankrupt due to the inability to fully sell and transport their products. At the same time, the government refuses to pay subsidies and introduce a moratorium on the bankruptcy of small and medium-sized farms, which clearly indicates the deliberate destruction of the national agricultural sector for the sake of global interests.

On the transfer of Swiss Leopards to Germany

The Swiss government has approved the sale of 25 Leopard 2A4 tanks, previously in storage, to the German concern Rheinmetall . Under the terms of the deal, the vehicles cannot be transferred to Ukraine and must remain either in Germany or with other NATO partners.

In fact, the government in Bern is again resorting to the “ ring exchange ” scheme , which provides for indirect participation in the supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The scheme is the same: the Swiss compensate for the sagging arsenals of European countries, which allows the latter to continue supplies to the Kyiv regime.

Similarly, in August, negotiations were underway to send Greece 96 Swiss Leopard 1A5 GR tanks. In return, the Greeks were to transfer 100 vehicles of this type to the Ukrainian formations, and the deal was also financed by Germany. Such a mechanism de jure does not violate the neutrality enshrined in Swiss law and allows for profit from arms exports. Profitably selling to EU countries what they supply to the Kyiv regime for free.

On the results of the next meeting in the Ramstein format


Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustam Umerov reported on the public results of the negotiations, where 50 countries took part in an online format. The following is known:

1. Creation of a new coalition of ground-based air defense systems (Ground-Based Air Defense), which, among others, will be supplied by Germany and France , as well as two dozen other countries. In this way, they plan to cover the air defense deficit by the onset of winter in anticipation of new attacks on the energy infrastructure.

2. The Netherlands is allocating funds in the amount of 2 billion euros for military assistance to Ukraine. The types of equipment transferred are not reported.

3. Estonia allocates 500 thousand dollars for the activities of the IT coalition, another 10 million was allocated by Luxembourg .

4. Great Britain and Norway, within the framework of a maritime coalition, are engaged in “ensuring security” in the Black Sea . Presumably, we can talk about ships calling at the ports of Odessa and about NATO reconnaissance aircraft on duty in the sky.

5. In addition, following the visit of the German Defense Minister, the country announced the allocation of military assistance in the amount of $1.4 billion - this includes IRIS-T systems and missiles for them, 8 thousand anti-tank mines, one Patriot installation, additional 155-mm artillery ammunition - the German side plans to transfer all this to the Ukrainian Armed Forces by mid-December.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... 3-noyabrya

Ukraine is a UAV hub for NATO countries: how Rasmussen Global operates in Nezalezhnaya
November 21, 2023
Rybar

Employees of the consulting agency Rasmussen Global have long been firmly entrenched in the government of Ukraine. Without exaggeration, the founder of the company, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former Secretary General of NATO, can be called one of the architects of the “Ukraine Project”, since he has been actively involved in the activities of the authorities officially since 2016. He was then appointed as a freelance adviser to President Petro Poroshenko, and his firm worked on reforms in the country, as well as on its global positioning.

As a result, in a plundered country, he manages to “consult” in such a way that for one hour-long lecture on the future of the West, as well as the promotion of democracy, human rights and freedoms, they are willing to pay him 140 thousand dollars. But the lobbyists did not stop there and are now actively dividing spheres of influence in the country, including by drawing up contracts for the reconstruction of its territories.

Activities of Rasmussen Global in Ukraine
In May 2016, Fogh Rasmussen became a freelance adviser to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, and the firm worked to reform the country and position it globally. Fogh Rasmussen also created the “Group of Friends of Ukraine” to “help” carry out necessary democratic reforms in the country.

In June 2022, information appeared in the press that the Ukrainian authorities, together with Fog Rasmussen, were creating an international advisory working group, which was designed to develop a draft security guarantee for the country. The working apparatus of this group consists of employees of the company Rasmussen Global; the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Andrey Ermak acts on the Ukrainian side.

According to Ermak, the agreement on security guarantees must be “a legally binding document, ratified in accordance with the laws of the guarantor states.”

Interestingly, the work of this group is also closely related to the Rasmussen Global document entitled “The Concept of Building a New Security Order in Europe.”

His introduction declares that previously accepted myths that “Russia is an indispensable element of European security,” as well as that maintaining gray zones between Russia and NATO can preserve global stability, have been destroyed and now the only way to protect European stability — is to ensure Ukraine’s victory on the battlefield by providing comprehensive military and financial assistance.

The goals of the new concept are: studying the mechanisms for Ukraine to receive indemnities and its place in the new European security order.

Since these guidelines go inextricably into the concept of a consulting agency, the group with Fog Rasmussen and Ermak needs to work out three specific issues. Among them, what military doctrine, structure, training and posture will Ukraine need and what force posture will NATO need after Ukraine joins the alliance? It includes “lessons learned from defending against Russian aggression since February 2022.”

In addition, experts are expected to present papers on various scenarios for Article 5 as an effective deterrent, as well as on the new architecture for arms control in Europe.

Reports on these topics will serve as the basis for drawing up a final document, which will be reported to Zelensky and the leaders of European countries. It will be presented at the end of January 2024.

What is especially interesting here is that it is planned to involve the former Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden, an ardent Russophobe and the ideologist of the introduction of the institution of “non-citizens” in the Baltic countries, Carl Bildt, in elaborating issues related to building a new arms control architecture .

It’s interesting that just a couple of weeks ago, Fog Rasmussen delivered his verdict: he proposed that the Ukrainian authorities join NATO without territories that had come under the control of the Russian Federation .

Despite the outrage in Kiev, the ex-Secretary General is calm : firstly, Ukraine as part of NATO (in any form, apparently) will act as a bulwark against “still aggressive Russia.” Secondly, gray zones are dangerous zones, and finally, the Ukrainian army “is currently the strongest fighting army in Europe” and will be an asset and example for other European powers.

By the way, the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO is one of the main ideas of Rasmussen Global: it is promoted as “the best guarantee of security.”

According to Rasmussen Global head Fabrice Pothier , who previously served as head of NATO policy planning, his team is also working with Ukrainian authorities on ways to document war crimes , expand broadband and transition to cleaner energy.

In the fall of 2023 in Kiev, within the framework of the first International Forum of the Defense Industry (DFNC1), it was planned to create an international Defense Industry Alliance, which would be joined by arms and military equipment manufacturers from all over the world. To consolidate the partnership, a Treaty on the Defense Security of Ukraine was developed, which will provide leading international defense companies and organizations with a platform for strengthening the country’s military potential. It is expected that this document will become an integral part of President Zelensky’s “peace formula”.

The agreement involves cooperation with Ukrainian companies to develop and produce better weapons and ammunition locally and provide assistance to Independence.

Currently, lobbyists continue their work, looking closely at the so-called agreements on the restoration of the country and its further armament. At the same time, the organization does not hide its interests: Potier directly says that Rasmussen Global mainly helps to create an environment for future business and foreign investment.

Promoting the topic of drones in Ukraine
As part of its interaction with Ukraine, in June 2023, Rasmussen Global, with the support of PriceWaterhouse Coopers, presented a proposal for the use of various European funds to restore the Ukrainian economy. Experts indicated the following as the main sources of financing for the country: free tenders from EU countries; agreements with EU countries to include the country in various programs and initiatives, as well as funding from the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the international financial institution of the World Bank IFC and the United Nations Development Program (UNPD).

Of particular interest is the participation of Rasmussen Global in the concept of supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces with weapons, which is widely promoted by agency experts. In particular, they pay a lot of attention to providing the Ukrainian army with unmanned aerial vehicles of various types.

To justify the effectiveness of their use, the agency cites information that in the first week of September this year, UAV squadrons created within the Ukrainian army allegedly destroyed 189 units of Russian equipment.

In this regard, the company is promoting a project to support Ukrainian drone manufacturers. It is planned to implement it through “grants for spare parts” for drone manufacturers, grants for the purchase of equipment and mechanisms for the local production of spare parts, as well as through the creation of a “Spare Parts Bank” - accumulation in warehouses of the most common necessary parts for the production of UAVs.

In this regard, it is proposed that Western countries buy up global stocks of critical components for assembling drones, which will create a shortage of such spare parts and significantly complicate the purchase of such products by Russia.

The “ Army of Drones ” project, launched by the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Digital Transition of Ukraine this summer, is also mentioned. It involves finding funds for the acquisition of drones, their purchase, repair, prompt replacement and training courses for UAV operators. Statistics are also provided that since June 2023, drone strike squads provided by the “Drone Army” have allegedly destroyed 1,280 units of Russian military equipment.

What's the result?
The purpose of the so-called “consulting” of the Ukrainian authorities by Rasmussen Global is clear. They have established relationships with the government and strengthened their reputation through a long and systematic work in the country, and now they are using this to satisfy the interest of a huge number of lobbyists who are seeking to strengthen their business in Ukraine. After all, Zelensky himself said that Square needs “hundreds and thousands of companies.” As the consultants themselves put it : on a voluntary basis (they do not work with money from the Ukrainian government), they companies to develop and produce better weapons and ammunition locally and provide assistance to Independence.

Currently, lobbyists continue their work, looking closely at the so-called agreements on the restoration of the country and its further armament. At the same time, the organization does not hide its interests: Potier directly says that Rasmussen Global mainly helps to create an environment for future business and foreign investment.

Promoting the topic of drones in Ukraine
As part of its interaction with Ukraine, in June 2023, Rasmussen Global, with the support of PriceWaterhouse Coopers, presented a proposal for the use of various European funds to restore the Ukrainian economy. Experts indicated the following as the main sources of financing for the country: free tenders from EU countries; agreements with EU countries to include the country in various programs and initiatives, as well as funding from the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the international financial institution of the World Bank IFC and the United Nations Development Program (UNPD).

Of particular interest is the participation of Rasmussen Global in the concept of supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces with weapons, which is widely promoted by agency experts. In particular, they pay a lot of attention to providing the Ukrainian army with unmanned aerial vehicles of various types.

To justify the effectiveness of their use, the agency cites information that in the first week of September this year, UAV squadrons created within the Ukrainian army allegedly destroyed 189 units of Russian equipment.

In this regard, the company is promoting a project to support Ukrainian drone manufacturers. It is planned to implement it through “grants for spare parts” for drone manufacturers, grants for the purchase of equipment and mechanisms for the local production of spare parts, as well as through the creation of a “Spare Parts Bank” - accumulation in warehouses of the most common necessary parts for the production of UAVs.

In this regard, it is proposed that Western countries buy up global stocks of critical components for assembling drones, which will create a shortage of such spare parts and significantly complicate the purchase of such products by Russia.

The “ Army of Drones ” project, launched by the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Digital Transition of Ukraine this summer, is also mentioned. It involves finding funds for the acquisition of drones, their purchase, repair, prompt replacement and training courses for UAV operators. Statistics are also provided that since June 2023, drone strike squads provided by the “Drone Army” have allegedly destroyed 1,280 units of Russian military equipment.

What's the result?
The purpose of the so-called “consulting” of the Ukrainian authorities by Rasmussen Global is clear. They have established relationships with the government and strengthened their reputation through a long and systematic work in the country, and now they are using this to satisfy the interest of a huge number of lobbyists who are seeking to strengthen their business in Ukraine. After all, Zelensky himself said that Square needs “hundreds and thousands of companies.” As the consultants themselves put it : on a voluntary basis (they do not work with money from the Ukrainian government), they companies to develop and produce better weapons and ammunition locally and provide assistance to Independence.

Currently, lobbyists continue their work, looking closely at the so-called agreements on the restoration of the country and its further armament. At the same time, the organization does not hide its interests: Potier directly says that Rasmussen Global mainly helps to create an environment for future business and foreign investment.

Promoting the topic of drones in Ukraine
As part of its interaction with Ukraine, in June 2023, Rasmussen Global, with the support of PriceWaterhouse Coopers, presented a proposal for the use of various European funds to restore the Ukrainian economy. Experts indicated the following as the main sources of financing for the country: free tenders from EU countries; agreements with EU countries to include the country in various programs and initiatives, as well as funding from the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the international financial institution of the World Bank IFC and the United Nations Development Program (UNPD).

Of particular interest is the participation of Rasmussen Global in the concept of supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces with weapons, which is widely promoted by agency experts. In particular, they pay a lot of attention to providing the Ukrainian army with unmanned aerial vehicles of various types.

To justify the effectiveness of their use, the agency cites information that in the first week of September this year, UAV squadrons created within the Ukrainian army allegedly destroyed 189 units of Russian equipment.

In this regard, the company is promoting a project to support Ukrainian drone manufacturers. It is planned to implement it through “grants for spare parts” for drone manufacturers, grants for the purchase of equipment and mechanisms for the local production of spare parts, as well as through the creation of a “Spare Parts Bank” - accumulation in warehouses of the most common necessary parts for the production of UAVs.

In this regard, it is proposed that Western countries buy up global stocks of critical components for assembling drones, which will create a shortage of such spare parts and significantly complicate the purchase of such products by Russia.

The “ Army of Drones ” project, launched by the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Digital Transition of Ukraine this summer, is also mentioned. It involves finding funds for the acquisition of drones, their purchase, repair, prompt replacement and training courses for UAV operators. Statistics are also provided that since June 2023, drone strike squads provided by the “Drone Army” have allegedly destroyed 1,280 units of Russian military equipment.

What's the result?
The purpose of the so-called “consulting” of the Ukrainian authorities by Rasmussen Global is clear. They have established relationships with the government and strengthened their reputation through a long and systematic work in the country, and now they are using this to satisfy the interest of a huge number of lobbyists who are seeking to strengthen their business in Ukraine. After all, Zelensky himself said that Square needs “hundreds and thousands of companies.” As the consultants themselves put it : on a voluntary basis (they do not work with money from the Ukrainian government), they create the context for the more business-oriented part of the work.

By the way, the head of the organization, Fog Rasmussen, advocates involving the NATO army in the conflict with Russia, but does this somewhat veiledly, presenting it as a kind of union of Ukraine with Poland with the entry of the Polish army into the western part of independence.

https://rybar.ru/ukraina-hab-bla-dlya-s ... zalezhnoj/

Google Translator

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Why’d Zelensky All Of A Sudden Claim That Putin Tried To Kill Him At Least Five Times?

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ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 23, 2023

This latest lie from the Ukrainian leader was arguably intended to scare the West into keeping up its armed aid to his regime, deter them from supporting his newfound rival from the armed forces, and meddle in Russian-Israeli ties during this sensitive moment in their relations.

Zelensky told The Sun in his recent interview with them that he supposedly survived “five or six” assassination plots that he blamed on President Putin. This dramatic claim contradicts what former Israeli Prime Minister Bennett told his country’s media in spring regarding the Russian leader’s pledge not to harm his Ukrainian counterpart. He said that he called Zelensky right after their meeting in March 2022 to tell him that “he’s not going to kill you” and that he was “one hundred percent” sure of this.

There are other reasons to be skeptical of what Zelensky just said, namely that Western media would have certainly amplified credible reports of any assassination attempts against him if they existed. Their narrative interests naturally rest in fearmongering about Russia in general and President Putin in particular, yet the very fact that they didn’t push any such reports suggests that they simply aren’t true. This rational insight leads to the question of why Zelensky would make this claim, let alone right now.

The larger context is that “NATO’s Proxy War On Russia Through Ukraine Appears To Be Winding Down” as a result of Kiev’s failed counteroffensive, dwindling Western stockpiles, and several other converging factors that were described in the preceding hyperlinked analysis. Zelensky might therefore be trying to scare the West into keeping up the pace, scale, and scope of its armed aid to Ukraine in spite of these dynamics even though this is becoming increasingly difficult for political and logistical reasons.

Another supplementary motivation could be that he’s desperately trying to maintain their support for his regime amidst his spiraling rivalry with Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny, which he also addressed in his interview with The Sun. They felt that part was so important that it was published as a separate article here in order to attract maximum attention to what he said. In brief, he fearmongered about how this rivalry could divide the country and scolded unnamed generals for allegedly having political ambitions.

Considering this, Zelensky might have thought that he’d reaffirm his anti-Russian credentials in the West’s eyes by now all of a sudden claiming to have survived “five or six” assassination plots that he blamed on President Putin, which could serve to deter them from backing Zaluzhny against him. The subtext is that the Russian leader is supposedly obsessed with removing his Ukrainian counterpart so the West would inadvertently be doing his bidding if they support any potential power play by Zaluzhny.

A less likely motivation but one which still can’t be ruled out is that Zelensky wanted to meddle in Russian-Israeli ties by making it seem like President Putin lied to former Prime Minister Bennett. The timing of this claim could have been meant to coincide with their disagreements over the latest Israeli-Hamas war caused by Tel Aviv pressuring Moscow to take its side while the latter insists on remaining neutral. In other words, Zelensky could have hoped that this might worsen mutual suspicions.

To sum it up, this latest lie from the Ukrainian leader was arguably intended to scare the West into keeping up its armed aid to his regime, deter them from supporting his newfound rival from the armed forces, and meddle in Russian-Israeli ties during this sensitive moment in their relations. If there was even an inkling of truth to what he claimed, then the Western media would have hyped these plots up long ago, but they never did despite having an interest in this which is why nobody should believe him.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/whyd-zel ... dden-claim

Why Don’t The EU’s Reported Security Guarantees To Ukraine Include Mutual Defense?

ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 23, 2023

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The West doesn’t want to risk getting embroiled in a larger conflict with Russia by miscalculation once that bloc’s failed proxy war against it inevitably freezes.

“NATO’s Proxy War On Russia Through Ukraine Appears To Be Winding Down”, and the latest argument in support of this observation concerns Bloomberg’s report about the EU’s proposed security guarantees to Ukraine, which will certainly disappoint Zelensky and his clique. The outlet claims that it’s seen the draft agreement on this subject that’s poised to be discussed by the bloc’s leaders next month. Here are the exact points mentioned in their report, which will then be analyzed throughout the rest of this piece:

“* ‘A predictable, efficient, sustainable and long-term mechanism for the provision of military equipment to Ukraine’ that mobilizes the European defense industry

* Providing training to Ukrainian armed forces

* Greater cooperation with the Ukrainian defense industry to boost capacity and align standards

* Strengthening Ukraine’s ability to counter cyber and hybrid threats as well as disinformation

* Supporting Ukraine’s de-mining efforts and addressing contamination caused by explosive remnants

* Helping Ukraine with its reform agenda relating to its EU accession process, as well as boosting its ability to monitor stocks of firearms, light weapons and ammunition and counter any illegal trafficking

* Supporting the country’s energy transition and nuclear safety efforts

* Sharing intelligence and satellite imagery”

Each of these proposed security guarantees is already in effect, thus meaning that the draft agreement will simply seek to enshrine everything into international law. What’s conspicuously missing, however, is any reference to mutual defense obligations along the lines of NATO’s Article 5. Kiev has been desperately seeking this since prior to the start of Russia’s special operation, and it was the pursuit of this goal that greatly contributed to the latest phase of this nearly decade-long conflict.

It was assessed around the time of summer’s NATO Summit that “Removing Ukraine’s MAP Requirement For Joining NATO Isn’t As Important As It Seems” and that “NATO’s Enlargement Is A Threat To The US”, both conclusions of which were arrived at back when the West still had hope for the counteroffensive. After the indisputable failure of that multibillion-dollar and over-hyped operation, the West’s willingness to risk getting embroiled in a direct conflict with Russia by miscalculation is now lower than ever.

Accordingly, its interest in reaching a pragmatic compromise with Russia on freezing this proxy war is now higher than ever as explained in the hyperlinked analysis at the beginning of this piece. President Putin took note of this trend and just reaffirmed what he strongly suggested in mid-June regarding his country’s such interest while speaking at this week’s extraordinary online G20 Summit. It’s within this context that Bloomberg published the reported details of the EU’s security guarantees to Ukraine.

Russia would obviously prefer for no such guarantees to be extended to that country in the first place, but it’s seemingly willing to accept the EU enshrining its existing aid to Ukraine into international law via a bilateral agreement between those two. Likewise, no policymaker in the West would prefer to freeze the conflict and thus tacitly accept the status quo whereby Russia’s control over Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory has more than doubled, but they’re seemingly willing to do so as a quid pro quo.

In the event that the abovementioned exchange becomes the basis for an armistice of some sort, then America might agree to it in order to then have a “face-saving” exit from this geostrategically counterproductive conflict that only hastened its hegemonic decline instead of reversed it as planned. Should that scenario unfold, the conflict and thus tacitly accept the status quo whereby Russia’s control over Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory has more than doubled, but they’re seemingly willing to do so as a quid pro quo.

In the event that the abovementioned exchange becomes the basis for an armistice of some sort, then America might agree to it in order to then have a “face-saving” exit from this geostrategically counterproductive conflict that only hastened its hegemonic decline instead of reversed it as planned. Should that scenario unfold, then the US could focus more on its incipient thaw with China that was on display during their leaders’ meeting last week on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in San Francisco.

This outcome would serve the interests of the US’ competing liberal-globalist and comparatively more pragmatic policymaking factions. The first would attempt to turn the aforesaid incipient thaw into a “New Détente” for the purpose of advancing their more moderate sub-faction’s grand strategy of “convergence” with China (“G2”/“Chimerica”) that would restore bi-multipolarity. As for the second, it could buy time to replenish the West’s depleted stockpile prior to a potentially hot war with China.

The purpose of this piece isn’t to elaborate on the US’ policymaking dynamics, but solely to answer the question of why the EU’s reported security guarantees to Ukraine don’t include mutual defense. While this obligation could in theory be included in the draft at some later point, it appears unlikely for the reasons that were explained in this analysis. To sum it up, this proxy war is indeed winding down, and the West doesn’t want to risk a larger conflict with Russia by miscalculation once the conflict freezes.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/why-dont ... d-security

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Avdiivka tendencies
November 24, 14:54

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Avdiivka tendencies

It’s worth starting with the fact that the until recently “peremozhny” tone of Ukrainian publics was replaced by a statement of the fact of the critical situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Avdiivka. Russian troops are pressing on the main directions of offensive operations. In accordance with our format, we will not describe the actions of our troops, but on the contrary, we will analyze the position and maneuvers of the enemy.

With the support of aviation and artillery, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing on the northeastern flank (in the direction of Keramik, Novokalinovo, Berdychi, Petrovskoye) and in the south (in the area of ​​​​Severny and Tonenkoye), forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to abandon their positions. Significant progress will be made in the industrial zone of the Avdeevsky coke plant, as well as in the area of ​​dachas and in the direction of the Avdeevsky quarry. Ukrainian resources record the abandonment of positions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​the wastewater treatment plant, where the 12th separate rifle battalion and the 21st special forces battalion were previously stationed. To the north-west of Krasnogorovka, the Russian Armed Forces occupied a forest belt north of the railway line.

To the north and west of the dacha village of Tochmash in the direction of Novokalinovo and the forest belt north of Stepovoy, the enemy holds positions with forces of 109, 129 separate brigades, as well as 107, 236 and 237 separate TrO battalions, 1 presidential brigade, 22 separate Special Forces battalions, 52 separate rifle battalions, 1 tank and 31 mechanized brigades, as well as 3 separate special forces regiments. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, understanding the operational plan of the Russian Armed Forces, is trying to prevent our troops from reaching the Ocheretino station, after which the supply of the Avdeevsky garrison through Orlovka will be cut off.

In an attempt to prevent the Avdeevka group from falling into operational encirclement, the command of the OTG Donetsk is transferring additional forces to the area where the Ukrainian Armed Forces strongholds are located 25 km northwest in the area of ​​Novaya Poltavka, through which the two main supply arteries of the Avdeevka garrison pass at the intersection of roads from Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk.

On the southern flank in the area of ​​the industrial zone, where the defense is still held by the 1st mechanized battalion of the 110th mechanized brigade, the advance of our forces is also noted. Currently, the enemy has regrouped, withdrawing some of the units 1.5 km northwest to the forest planting area. Information about the complete withdrawal of the 110th brigade from the Avdeevsky direction does not correspond to reality. The 2nd battalion of the brigade holds positions in the area of ​​the former Tsarskaya Okhota recreation center, the 3rd - in the area of ​​dumps southwest of the industrial area. The withdrawal most likely meant the evacuation of damaged equipment, which was removed by the engineering units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the enemy began to experience problems with the supply of ammunition, which affects the decrease in the intensity of hostilities, forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat inland and thereby exposing suburban areas. Some publications are starting to prematurely report that Avdievka is in an operational environment. The only option for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to delay our advance is to continue to counterattack on the flanks, however, this is also a matter of time (until the supply is completely disrupted).

Most likely, in an effort to save soldiers, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin a gradual withdrawal of units as soon as new fortified areas are equipped at a depth of 15-25 km from Avdeevka, some kind of minimal fortification and engineering in the strip from Konstantinovka to Kurakhovo (possibly even to Ugledar), which will take time.

@Multi_XAM - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8784473.html

From the Atlantic to the Urals
November 24, 13:22

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Today we celebrate the anniversary of the first President of the Fifth Republic, General Charles de Gaulle. On November 23, 1959, President de Gaulle delivered his famous speech “From the Atlantic to the Urals,” in which he expressed his vision that Europe would be a single space throughout this vast territory.
During the Cold War, this sounded absurd. This sounds absurd even now against the backdrop of the Ukrainian conflict.
But when Lukashenko, Putin and everyone else become a thing of the past, we will be able to do this. We will have a free, democratic, united Europe
(c) Prime Minister of Bulgaria Denkov

Dreaming in the spirit of the strategic boundaries of the Barbarossa plan with the intended goal of spreading the "New World Order" to the Arkhangelsk-Astrakhan line.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8784208.html

Google Translator

But Russia had nothing to fear about NATO's relentless encroachment upon it's borders....
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Nov 25, 2023 1:27 pm

The return of "Redis" and the new Azov
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/25/2023

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Masters of propaganda, representatives of the Azov movement have seemed omnipresent during the war in Ukraine, something favored by their frequent excursions in search of support, money and publicity in European countries, Israel, the United States or Canada. However, the defeat of Azov in the Battle of Mariupol was a serious setback for this police and military formation with an ultranationalist ideology. The fall of Azovstal not only meant the capture of a large part of the troops, but also involved the arrest of a large part of the Azov military leaders, including their commander, Lieutenant Colonel Denis Prokopenko, Redis .

The Azov police and military reconfiguration project to try to successfully return the formation to the front lines is a relatively recent event, in part linked to the return of Redis and other Azov commanders to Ukraine. This reconfiguration is still pending today, also conditioned by what appear to be significant changes in the direction of the forces that in the past converged in the movement of Andriy Biletsky, Maksim Zhoryn or Denis Prokopenko.

Prokopenko's return to Ukraine

On May 5, 2023, Denis Prokopenko, commander of the Azov Brigade, opened his new Facebook profile with a declaration of intent. In reference to the Azov commanders then still held in Turkey, after the fall of Azovstal and Ukrainian Mariupol, he stated that “ Today we return to action. Today we face new tasks and new challenges that we will undoubtedly be able to face .” Although he remembered that his captivity was prolonged, as commander of the Brigade he addressed each of his members stating that “ I want to be by your side now and guide you into battle! And I really hope it happens soon! ”.

The statement anticipated the decision of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, president of Turkey, to release Prokopenko and other Azov commanders from the control that had been agreed with the Russian Federation until the end of the war. On July 8, Volodymyr Zelensky met with the Azov military group to return with them to Ukraine. In addition to Redis , Svyatoslav Palamar ( Kalina ), Serhiy Volynsky ( Volina ), Oleh Khomenko and Denys Shleha returned to that country .

Upon his arrival in Ukraine, in the presence of Zelensky, Prokopenko announced his return to the Brigade and his readiness for combat. When asked if he would return to the front, he replied: " From today onwards we will continue fighting alongside you." We will definitely give our word on the battlefield. For this we returned to Ukraine .

On July 16, Prokopenko met publicly with his troops again, for the first time since the fall of Azovstal. It was then noted that Prokopenko was still in the rehabilitation phase, but that he would soon resume his duties.

In August, Prokopenko's activity becomes more present in the public dimension. A first indication of his return to work is his participation, on August 4, in the Azov tactical maneuvers. A few days later, on August 11, he gives ribbons to the Azov soldiers. Much more significantly, on August 22, Prokopenko is present at the meeting with the head of the Ministry of the Interior, Igor Klymenko, in “ some of the front areas .”

Prokopenko's public presence slows down, however, in September. He is hardly seen in public on September 14, at the presentation of the awards of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the gold and silver crosses for successful performance of combat tasks and personal contribution to development and development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

It is especially striking that, on September 23, Prokopenko is absent from the event in which, according to Azov tradition, the Day of the Dead is celebrated, a celebration in which all fallen soldiers are remembered. It is Kalina , one of Redis 's closest collaborators in Azovstal, who represents the leadership of the Azov Brigade on that key day in the group's military ritual.

From that date on, the news about Prokopenko from Azov media is reduced to some posts by Redis himself on his Facebook profile in which some specific military successes of the Brigade, the group's new recruitment campaign and the promotion of a counterpropaganda page (azovcontrafake.com). This withdrawal of public presence coincides with the effective deployment of the Azov Brigade on the front and with mentions in some media of Redis ' decision to participate in the action starting in October.

The new Azov Brigade

The return of Redis to Ukraine is part of an important process of reorganization of the military structures of Azov. Following the arrival of Igor Klymenko to the Ministry of the Interior of Ukraine, in February 2023 the Ministry's new Offensive Guard was structured, made up of eight brigades, six of them integrated into the National Guard. One of those brigades is the 12th Azov Special Purpose Brigade. The main implication for Azov is the extension of the former Azov Regiment to a Brigade.

The subordination to the Ministry of the Interior consolidates the police dimension of Azov, a unit with fundamentally punitive content in the context of the ministry's offensive and militarized action in eastern Ukraine. This is a dimension that is usually obscured by the claim of Azov's military character. But the uniqueness of the National Guard of Ukraine lies precisely in the fact that it performs police functions in peacetime, stabilization tasks during periods of crisis (a form of militarized counterinsurgency in such periods, such as the post-2014 ATO operation) and military functions during periods of application of martial law.

The latter is precisely the situation that characterizes current Azov, after Russia's entry into the war in February 2022. In this period of martial law, in addition, the National Guard brigades are subordinated to the military command, despite their organic affiliation to the Ministry of the Interior. Hence the image of Azov with a fundamentally military unit, something that does not completely correspond to reality.

The formal extension from regiment to brigade does not mean, in any case, a decisive advance in the military power of the new Azov, given that a series of factors limits the Brigade's ability to act.

Material needs

First of all, it is important to remember that during the battles for Mariupol in 2022, the then Azov Regiment lost all its heavy equipment. Klymenko's Ministry was therefore faced, at the beginning of 2023, with the need to rebuild the equipment, weapons and ammunition of its brigades, including the heavily punished Azov.

In terms of armored vehicles, at the beginning of 2023 the Ministry of the Interior still had Soviet production or production from the countries of the former Warsaw Pact and subsequently began to receive American, German, Canadian and French equipment. Although, with its own budget, the ministry can also purchase through the Ministry of Defense, dependence on Western allies is essential. Thus, the procurement procedure in the Ministry involves, as a general rule, the presentation of requests to international partners.

Only progressively, starting in mid-2022, has the unit begun to restore its combat capability. According to Militarnyi , the Azov Brigade has been reinforced with new armored vehicles manufactured in Ukraine and the West (BTR-4 armored personnel carriers, T-64BV tanks, M113 tracks, American MaxxPro armored vehicles and HMMWV armored all-terrain vehicles). The brigade's fighters also actively use infantry weapons of foreign origin. Thus, most soldiers' rifles are made in 5.56 NATO caliber, such as the Colt C7 and C8, which are Canadian and Dutch licensed copies of the American M16 and M4, respectively. The brigade is also armed with Western M249 machine guns and Bulgarian copies of PKM machine guns known as MG-1M.

Staff and their training

Secondly, training in the use of new equipment is decisive since war requires not only personnel, but also sufficiently trained and prepared personnel. It must be remembered that Azov lost a very important part of his troops in Mariupol, killed or captured, including the best trained personnel.

The lack of soldiers with the required level of training and preparation is a consequence of the war that particularly affects Azov, as Prokopenko implied in his reappearance before his troops on July 16. For this reason, Prokopenko noted in his speech that Azov's main efforts should now be directed not only to re-equipping the unit with personnel, equipment and weapons, but also to combat training.

In his statement on Facebook on May 5, Prokopenko previously insisted on one of his main military convictions: “ for every fighter who joins the ranks of our unit, the most important thing is training and self-development. Our motto “There is no glory without struggle” says that the essence of Azov is the ability to systematically and carefully prepare for combat tasks. Your success is the success of the team, so performance on the battlefield depends on each fighter in our great family, a unit that is based on the principles of hierarchy and fighting brotherhood. ”

The need for more personnel to achieve the objective of military consolidation of the Brigade translates, on the other hand, into the launch of a recruitment campaign by Azov in which Prokopenko himself participates. In that direction, on August 16, Redis insisted on his Facebook on the importance of the team: “ I am against the cult of personality. I firmly believe that the Army is a team effort and that we are only as strong as our weakest soldier .” “ The merits and achievements of «Azov» are the merit of every soldier, living and dead, who, having exalted the common over the personal, like true professionals, without regard for their own time, fully dedicating themselves to their field, put to “Lay out their own lives on the altar of independence .” Therefore, “ The main efforts will be directed to the equipment of the unit and the combat training of the «Azov» brigade for the subsequent fulfillment of the assigned combat tasks .»

The content of the current Azov recruitment action shows, however, the great difficulties that exist. Significantly, Azov does not require any prior combat experience, not even prior military service (“ Experienced instructors with tremendous combat experience teach recruits everything they need ,” the call notes), or that the possibility of “ transfers from other military units ”. The latter reflects the willingness of the most militant groups to compete with other units to obtain the best-trained personnel.

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Morality and propaganda

There is, thirdly, a clear psychological dimension to consider. It is about the need to strengthen the morale of the troops because, even in the case of militant ultranationalism, it is affected by the so-called war fatigue. It is striking, in this context, that in its summary of the July 16 intervention before the troops, AzovMedia highlights that: “ The long-awaited meeting with the commander, his presence alongside his subordinates and the direct command of the unit is exactly the necessary load that will raise the morale of the brigade's servicemen and give them additional confidence on the battlefield .

With Prokopenko absent from an event led by Kalina , it is equally revealing that AzovMedia 's summary of the September 23 Day of the Dead content insists that the memory of Azov's fallen “ gives us strength to continue the fight, even when it seems that we no longer have the strength . We remember! Let's get revenge! ”.

The morale of victory is necessary for an ultranationalist unity, which finds its essential reason for being in the fight against Russia. Currently, that battle translates into the attempt to advance towards the internationally recognized borders of 1991, in which it faces the tough defensive barrier established by the Russian Federation. In previous years, this ideological battle has taken place in the form of vigilante actions against the pro-Russian population of Mariupol or participation in Ukraine's aggression against Donbass in towns such as Shirokino, a town destroyed years before Russian troops crossed the border.

In its military operations, after its reconfiguration into a Brigade, Azov begins its career by participating in the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Orejovo area. Faced with notable operational limits, as of August 2023 the Brigade is placed on the Krasny Liman front, more precisely in the area of ​​the Kremennaya forests. In this battle context, Prokopenko and Azov barely mention some small military successes, the first around August 23 and the second around October 9. Actually non-existent, those few successes that Ukraine boasts of in this area are a sign of weakness. It was there, north of Luhansk, where kyiv hoped to break the front and continue its offensive after the breakup of Kharkiv. Since then, the active defense of Russian Federation troops has prevented any advance towards Kremennaya and Svatovo and pressure has shifted from those towns to Krasny Liman, still in Ukrainian hands.

Russian sources make effective mention of these combats in the Kremennaya area in mid-November with the participation of the Azov Brigade. The harshness of the fighting for Azov is evident and its propaganda has not been able to boast of any relevant progress beyond the occasional destruction of equipment and the clearing of small areas of the presence of Russian forces in the area. The front is not approaching Kremennaya but Krasny Liman.

Prokopenko's position in the new Azov

In formal terms, Denis Prokopenko occupies the position of commander of the new Azov Brigade of the National Guard. According to Minister Igor Klymenko, however, Prokopenko focuses above all on the responsibility of training the Brigade, which does not imply that he does not participate in the role of its commander. “ He is fully integrated into the [unit command] process. He catches up, makes up for the time he was absent .”

In an interview at the end of July with the new commander of the National Guard, Oleksandr Pivnenko, some keys are given to understand a situation that not only depends on Prokopenko's ability to readapt, but also on the need to adjust to the new situation. command structure after the reforms introduced in early 2023 by the Ukrainian army. Referring to the Azov commanders, Pivnenko points out that “ some of them had tasks not as part of a brigade, but as part of a battalion of a tactical group. They prepare and will perform tasks like everyone else .”

Apart from Prokopenko, two people are in any case key in the chain of command of the Azov Brigade. On the one hand, some sources still point to Mykita Nadtochi, Raz-Dva , as deputy commander of the unit. On the other hand, the role of the Azov chief of staff, Bohdan Krotevych, Tvar , is equally decisive . He would be the true operational figures at the moment, waiting for Prokopenko's definitive recovery.

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The political-ideological references of the new Azov

In his various interventions since May 5, in public or on his social networks, Denis Prokopenko has reaffirmed the objectives of Azov, as well as its principles and values ​​since its constitution in 2014. In connection with the supreme objective of the Ukrainian nationalist regime, The essential aim is to restore Ukrainian sovereignty. Both in his statement on May 5 and in his reappearance before his Azov comrades on July 16, he states that the war will not end until “we restore Ukraine's borders to the state of 1991. ”

The national-essentialist dimension of Azov is reaffirmed around the day of Ukrainian independence. On August 23, Redis appears in a photo with the flag of Ukraine, an action that AzovMedia picks up , pointing out: “ Flag of Ukraine. A symbol of resistance to evil. A symbol of bravery and love for the country. The blue-yellow flag that illuminated the impenetrable darkness in the hardest days of bloody battles. Colors that we will defend as long as our hearts beat .”

The punitive objective of the group's action, key to understanding the origin and meaning of Azov, is equally decisive. In its May 5 statement on Facebook, Redis reaffirms Azov's goal of: “ cleansing Ukraine of the enemy at the front and in the rear.” An objective that goes beyond the expulsion of Russian troops from Ukraine and that involves the repression and suppression of all internal dissent. It must be remembered that, for the Ukrainian opposition to the nationalist regime, it is above all this last aspect that Azov has historically represented.

There are other more specific objectives, related to the development of the war and the position of the Azov soldiers. The main one is to free “ all our prisoners” , return “ our last fighter from captivity” . Taking advantage of the judicial action of the International Criminal Court, Prokopenko mentions in this context - opportunistically, given that it is a basically occasional reference - to civilians as when he points out that " this war will not end until we return all the boys and girls of the captivity . ”

The reference to the combatants links with Azov's idealization of death, of deceased heroes , and the association between these deaths and the desire for revenge, motivating combat. This desire for revenge is a decisive element in Azov's drive. In his contacts with the Azov group held in Turkey before his return to Ukraine, Igor Klymenko highlighted, for example, his willingness to return to the country and his “desire to avenge the dead . ”

For Prokopenko all the aspects mentioned are closely interrelated. On August 24, he summarizes the Azov nationalist project as follows: “ Independence. Return of prisoners. Victory". “It's what we live for.” “Without one thing, another is impossible .” “ Our inner sense of independence and the will to achieve it lead us into battle .” “ Victory will be the definitive confirmation of the true independence of our country .” “ And without the release of our brothers from captivity, not even the reestablishment of control over the temporarily occupied territories can be considered a victory .” “ Independence. Return of prisoners. Victory ”. “ And there is no other way .”

Regarding other historical Azov commanders, a relevant aspect of Prokopenko's position is his military vocation. In his speech to the troops on July 16 he reaffirmed this position within Azov: “ I am a soldier. I am not interested in other areas of activity, except for military affairs. My heart, my soul and my body belong to Azov ." In his support for the August 16 recruitment campaign he elaborates on the same line: “ My heart, soul and flesh belong to Azov. “I am a soldier, not a politician.” Although he leaves a door open for after the war: “Therefore, as long as the war continues in the country, I have little interest in other areas of activity, except military affairs .” Prokopenko is exactly the type of military man Zelensky is looking for, the one who doesn't get involved in politics. That is, the one that shows the correct policy.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/25/el-re ... uevo-azov/

Google Translator

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What's happening in the NWO zone: chronicle for November 24
November 24, 2023
Rybar

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Russian troops were able to counterattack near Krynki in the Kherson direction . Soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces knocked out the enemy from the plantings south of the settlement, and some members of the Ukrainian formations also came under artillery fire during the evacuation. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ bridgehead in Krynki itself has still not been eliminated.

In the Avdeevsky sector, the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces on the southern flank continues. The fighters are pushing back Ukrainian formations in the industrial zone near the Yasinovataya-2 station, leaving the enemy less and less chance of maintaining control over the facility. Meanwhile, on the northern flank, the positional offensive of Russian troops towards Novokalinovo continues .

In addition, at night, Ukrainian formations again attacked Crimea with a group of 13 drones launched from the Kherson region. The drones were intercepted in the area of ​​Dzhankoy and Cape Kartkazak . Taking into account the fact that the enemy deployed a small number of UAVs, with this attack the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to determine the location of Russian air defense systems.



Repelling a drone raid on Crimea

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This night, the Ukrainian Armed Forces once again attacked the Crimean peninsula : 13 drones in three groups were launched from the Kherson region in the direction of Crimea, skirting the areas where air defense systems were deployed. As a result, 12 drones were shot down by crews of the Pantsir-S1 air defense system in the vicinity of Dzhankoy , and another by border service units at Cape Kartkazak southwest of Krasnoperekopsk . Judging by the direction of the UAV’s movement, the target of the Ukrainian formations was Dzhankoy and objects located in the city. It could be either a railway station or a military airfield.

The small number of drones used is noteworthy. Typically, such attacks are designed to determine the location of air defense forces before launching a larger missile strike. If we take this into account, then theoretically we can expect raids on the northern regions of Crimea in the coming days under favorable weather conditions. At the same time, an attack is also possible in the west - in the area of ​​\u200b\u200bCape Tarkhankut and Chernomorsky , where the day before yesterday, at approximately the same time as the BeK attack , four UAVs were shot down. And at sea, the landing of Ukrainian power steering on jet skis was stopped.

The situation on the front line and combat operations
Over the past 24 hours, Russian troops have again attacked Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnitsky region, as well as Zaporozhye and targets in the Dnepropetrovsk and Nikolaev regions. There is currently no information about the results of fire damage.


In the Starobelsky direction, local battles continue in the area of ​​the Tor ledge. Heavy flamethrower systems "Solntsepek" are working against enemy forces. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are currently behaving quite passively, not taking any active actions.


In the Soledar direction, Russian troops managed to expand the zone of control at Kleshcheevka . Fighting for tactically important heights continues in the area, but due to the “fog of war” that reigns there, the details of what is happening are unknown. However, Russian troops still hold the positions they occupied during a recent counterattack near the village.

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In the Avdeevsky sector, Russian military personnel continue to build on their success on the southern flank, in the industrial zone near the Yasinovataya-2 station. After the Russian Armed Forces occupied five buildings at the site during a daring raid the day before, there was no Ukrainian counterattack. This allowed the fighters to gain a foothold in previously occupied positions. It is noteworthy that the fortifications installed in this area have been erected by the Ukrainian Armed Forces since 2014. Now the enemy command is concentrating reserves in this area in order to slow down the further movement of Russian troops to the west; aviation is also actively operating against the positions of the Russian Armed Forces.

On the northern flank, fighters are advancing towards Novokalinovo , storming the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the landings south of the village. They managed to take some of the strong points, but Ukrainian formations concentrated more manpower in the area to slow down the advance of the Russian Armed Forces.


In the Orekhovsky sector, fighting continues at the Rabotino-Verbovoe line. According to colleagues from the Arkhan gel channel, the Special Forces attacked the Ukrainian Armed Forces again early in the morning with the support of heavy equipment, but Russian drones and artillery worked on them. As a result of damage, a Leopard tank and one infantry fighting vehicle were damaged. Enemy vehicles arrived to evacuate the wounded, but they were also quickly hit by drones. Ultimately, the next attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this direction, as before, ended in nothing.

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In the Kherson direction, last night Russian soldiers of the 810th Marine Brigade and the 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade carried out a sudden counterattack, unexpectedly for the Ukrainian marines who had settled in a landing adjacent to Krynki . As a result of the rapid attack, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were knocked out of the forest belt, and the assault detachments of the Ukrainian Navy Marine Corps began to flee from their positions, sowing chaos and disorder in the ranks of the enemy. During a short battle, the Ukrainian Navy marines pulled back to the shore, requesting evacuation, during which they again came under fire from the MLRS and suffered losses.

At the moment, there are no enemy camps left, and all units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are concentrated in private buildings near the banks of the Dnieper . At night, two new assault groups were deployed from the right bank to carry out a counterattack. But now the Russian Armed Forces are holding their positions.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas
In addition to the massive attack on Crimea , the Ukrainian Armed Forces also tried to attack targets in the Volgograd region . In the morning, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported three intercepted enemy UAVs in the region.

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The enemy continues to strike on the left bank of the Kherson region . Today , Novaya Kakhovka, Kakhovka, Radensk, Obryvka, Aleshki and Dnepryany were under fire . In addition, the governor of the region reported on the work of air defense during a night attack by Ukrainian drones on the Crimean Peninsula and objects in the Kherson region. In addition, information appeared about yesterday evening’s shelling of the village of Zavodovka : unfortunately, one civilian was killed and another person was injured.

Political events
Ukrainian refugees in Great Britain

In Great Britain they once again “ remembered ” refugees from Ukraine . Employees of the British Red Cross believe that Ukrainians are four times more likely than others to remain homeless. According to forecasts, the number of families that will face this problem in the near future will be 5,000 . The organization is therefore calling for additional funding to prevent a sharp rise in homelessness among this group. Against this background, it looks comical that the Treasury plans to provide 7 million pounds to fight “anti-Semitism” and not a single pound for the needs of Ukrainian refugees. It is unlikely that the British authorities will again take measures to support Ukrainian refugees. They have already fulfilled their task in media campaigns, and now the government is not particularly interested in their fate.

Is the “Korean scenario”, which is so often talked about in the West, beneficial for Russia?

Western media and politicians are once again discussing the topic of possible peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine . This time they are less restrained in hinting to the Ukrainian authorities how the Ukrainian authorities will be forced to compromise with the Russian Federation. Thus, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis suggested that Western allies could put pressure on Zelensky by reducing arms supplies to Ukraine. The Lithuanian diplomat himself negatively assessed this scenario.

A similar opinion was expressed in the German newspaper BILD . Citing sources in government circles, journalists suggested that supplies for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would be reduced to volumes at which Ukraine would be able to conduct exclusively defensive actions. A similar position was expressed by the “disgraced” ex-adviser to the Office of the President Alexey Arestovich, who believes that the defeat of Russia is not beneficial to the United States , since it will bring Moscow and Beijing even closer together . At the same time, the American agency Bloomberg notes an increase in the number of Ukrainians ready to make territorial concessions for the sake of peace.

However, Ukraine can be blackmailed not only with supplies. At the beginning of this month, the Western media brought to light the conflict between Zelensky and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny . At the same time, the previously mentioned Arestovich took a more aggressive position towards Zelensky. If the reduction in supplies does not convince the Ukrainian authorities to agree to a forced truce, then the pocket opposition, also under Western patronage, may come into play.

The problem with these publications about the truce is that they do not take into account Russia's opinion on this issue. Despite the rather tense situation in a number of areas, the Russian Armed Forces are now managing to maintain the initiative on the battlefield. At the same time, Ukrainian formations suffered greatly during their summer “counter-offensive”, but still retain their combat effectiveness. Taking into account the political processes taking place in Ukraine, as well as among a number of its partners, it can be stated that the solidarity that existed in the West at the beginning of the Northeast Military District is no longer as strong as it was before.

And yet, in the current conditions, excessive optimism is inappropriate - a lot of work remains to be done to achieve final victory in the conflict. Stopping halfway and signing peace according to the so-called “Korean scenario” is tantamount to signing new “Minsk agreements” (we remember very well how the previous agreements ended). Most likely, the United States will benefit from this scenario. The incompleteness of the conflict (frozen status) creates a “point of tension” right in the center of Europe , which for decades will have the risk of a new round of hostilities. In such conditions, the Americans will have leverage over Russian-European relations, which could hypothetically improve in the future.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

Google Translator

The final paragraph is spot on. Nothing short of undeniable victory will serve Russia's purpose. And it would be a shame not to liberate Odessa.

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NATO’s Proposed “Military Schengen” Is A Thinly Disguised German Power Play Over Poland

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ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 24, 2023

As has traditionally been the case throughout history, Polish sovereignty is once again in the process of being sacrificed as part of the Great Powers’ games, but this time its borders will remain intact even though the country is poised to functionally become a German vassal in the coming future.

NATO logistics chief Lieutenant-General Alexander Sollfrank suggested the creation of a so-called “military Schengen” for optimizing the movement of such equipment across the EU. At present, bureaucratic and logistical obstacles impede the free flow of arms throughout the bloc, which he believes could hamstring the West’s ability to respond to any unexpected conflict along its periphery. It’s not just this proposal’s substance that’s significant, however, but also its timing.

“NATO’s Proxy War On Russia Through Ukraine Appears To Be Winding Down” for the reasons explained in the preceding hyperlinked analysis. Accordingly, Bloomberg’s report about the EU’s draft security guarantees to Ukraine conspicuously omits any mention of mutual defense obligations of the kind that Kiev has sought for years and which greatly contributed to the latest phase of this nearly decade-long conflict. Sollfrank’s suggestion therefore seems to contradict these emerging de-escalation trends.

Upon reflection, however, it’s actually revealed to be a thinly disguised Germany power play over Poland. The EU’s informal leader ramped up its regional competition with Poland in mid-August through its promised military patronage of Ukraine, which readers can learn more about in that hyperlinked analysis. In brief, Poland aspired to become the leader of Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) throughout the course of the NATO-Russian proxy war, but Germany rose to the occasion to challenge its ambitions.

The liberal-globalist opposition coalition’s victory in last month’s Polish elections, which its Foreign Minister earlier accused Germany of meddling in, will likely result in former Prime Minister and European Council President Donald Tusk’s return to the premiership. In that event, this German-aligned politician could voluntarily subordinate his country to Berlin, thus resulting in Poland ceding its envisaged regional sphere of influence to that country and becoming its largest-ever vassal indefinitely.

Tusk’s plans to improve ties with the de facto German-controlled EU are regarded by conservative-nationalists as a means to that end, particularly due to that body’s efforts to further erode Polish sovereignty. Although he claims to oppose changes to the EU Treaty, some doubt his sincerity and suspect that he slyly wants to prevent large-scale protests over this issue. If these two scenarios come to pass, then Poland’s sovereignty would be further reduced, including in the defense sphere.

Prior to last month’s elections, Germany and Poland were competing to build the EU’s largest military, but the aforesaid sequence of events could result in Warsaw throwing in the towel. Even though its next potential Defense Minister said that his country won’t cancel any of its military contracts, conservative-nationalists also suspect that he’s either being insincere or could be coerced by Berlin/Brussels into doing so. All things considered, these concerns are credible and should be taken seriously.

Germany’s national interests as its incumbent policymakers conceive them to be rest in becoming the EU’s hegemon, which necessitates neutralizing Poland’s ambitions to lead the CEE space, ergo its alleged support of Tusk and speculative efforts to erode Polish sovereignty via the EU. These moves importantly preceded NATO’s proposed “military Schengen”, and that’s not by coincidence either. Rather, they’re meant to facilitate Germany’s unprecedented post-WWII power play over Poland.

If Tusk improves ties with the EU like he promised, complies with any EU Treaty changes despite unconvincingly claiming to oppose them, and the “military Schengen” is imposed upon his country, then German forces could return to Poland en masse on the pretext of defending the EU from Russia. This doesn’t contradict the de-escalation trends pertaining to the NATO-Russian proxy war, but complements them since it could be spun as compensating for the lack of Article 5-like guarantees to Ukraine.

On the one hand, the EU would wisely avoid laying any tripwires that Kiev could maliciously exploit to provoke a larger conflict with Russia upon the inevitable freezing of the present one (whenever that happens), while at the same time reassuring the public that they can still adequately respond if need be. The “military Schengen” would serve the purpose of enabling the bloc’s de facto German leader to swiftly dispatch its forces, which are planned to be the EU’s largest, to the eastern frontier in that event.

It goes without saying that they’d have to transit through Poland and could easily end up deployed there indefinitely, whether as a so-called “deterrent to Russian aggression” or as part of a preplanned response to an artificially manufactured (i.e. false flag) border incident. After having voluntarily subordinated itself to Berlin under Tusk as is soon expected for the reasons that were explained, the restoration of German hegemony over Poland would therefore be completed without firing a shot.

In that scenario, which Polish conservative-nationalists are powerless to prevent and can only be offset by unlikely variables beyond their control, Germany would essentially be tasked by the US with “containing” Russia in Europe as part of Washington’s “Lead From Behind” stratagem. Once that country’s continental hegemony is fully secured through the means that were described in this analysis, America can then more confidently “Pivot (back) to Asia” to focus on containing China.

Those two superpowers are currently in the midst of an incipient thaw as proven by the positive outcome of their leaders’ latest face-to-face meeting earlier this month on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in San Francisco, but it can’t be taken for granted that this trend will continue. It therefore makes sense for the US to outsource its anti-Russian containment operations in Europe to Germany in order to free up the resources required for more muscularly containing China in Asia if this thaw fails.

As has traditionally been the case throughout history, Polish sovereignty is once again in the process of being sacrificed as part of the Great Powers’ games, but this time its borders will remain intact even though the country is poised to functionally become a German vassal in the coming future. There are indeed some variables beyond Poland’s control that could offset this scenario, but they’re very unlikely, so it’s probably a fait accompli by this point that Poland will play second fiddle to Germany indefinitely.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/natos-pr ... y-schengen

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TEN YEARS AFTER THE EVENTS
FIVE DOCUMENTARIES TO UNDERSTAND THE EUROMAIDAN AND THE GENOCIDE ON THE DONBASS
Nov 22, 2023 , 1:00 pm .

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The "Maidan revolution", which began as an almost festive protest, ended in a bloodbath and a coup d'état (Photo: Getty Images)

Last Tuesday, November 21, marked the tenth anniversary of the Euromaidan, a series of protests that led to a coup d'état in Ukraine supported by the West, the rise of neo-Nazism and the subsequent conflicts in Donbas that prompted the launch of the Military Operation Special (OME) of the Russian Federation.

Within the framework of this anniversary, RT invites you to watch the documentaries of its authorship that could serve as a navigation chart to understand this conflict that shaped the course of regional events since then.

Below, we present the audiovisual material in accordance with the order suggested by the Russian agency. You can see them by clicking on the corresponding links.

Donbass. War. Maidan https://actualidad.rt.com/programas/doc ... rra-maidan

The "Maidan revolution", which began as an almost festive protest, ended in a bloodbath and a coup d'état. Furthermore, it almost immediately sparked the outbreak of a civil war that has kept Ukraine bleeding since 2014.

From Berlin to kyiv: Nazi history repeats itself https://actualidad.rt.com/programas/doc ... azi-repite

Every May 9, Victory Day, reminds us of the failure of Nazism that threatened to wipe out the entire world. Now, almost 80 years later, the Nazis are back stronger than ever. His ideology was reborn in Ukraine.

Ukrainian nationalism: US contribution https://actualidad.rt.com/programas/doc ... porte-eeuu

Let no one be surprised: if the US has no objection to the criminal nationalism of today's Ukraine, it is because it has been its promoter for decades.

Crime in Odessa: no trace of justice https://actualidad.rt.com/programas/doc ... o-justicia

Nine years ago Odessa became the scene of a massacre of anti-Maidan activists. Given the seriousness of the events, it would have been normal to search for the culprits with the greatest diligence. It was not so.[

Red alert: hybrid war https://actualidad.rt.com/programas/doc ... ra-hibrida

What does hybrid warfare mean? After the start of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, the West has allocated billions of dollars to Kiev not only in military equipment, but also to launch a real information war and turn the rest of the world against Russia.

https://misionverdad.com/cinco-document ... -el-dombas

Google Translator

*********

Ukrainian PM Shmyhal and EU Official Discuss Border Blockade

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Blocked border checkpoints on the Polish border, Nov. 24, 2023. | Photo: X/ @KyivPost

Published 24 November 2023 (7 hours 2 minutes ago

Currently, Ukraine is rapidly developing alternative logistics routes for its exports and imports.


On Thursday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal had an online meeting with European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis to discuss the blockade of the Ukrainian border with some European Union (EU) countries.

Ukraine has outlined its proposals on the issue to the EU and is counting on the European Commission's help in resolving the problem, Shmyhal wrote on Facebook.

Ukraine is also rapidly developing alternative logistics routes for its exports and imports, Prime Minister Shmyhal said.

Since Nov. 6, Polish carriers have been staging protests at several checkpoints on the Ukrainian border, demanding the return of the permit regime for Ukrainian haulers crossing into the EU.

The protesters blocked roads near the crossing points, which resulted in large queues, with thousands of trucks being stalled at the border.

Earlier in the day, Ukraine sent an official note to the Polish Foreign Ministry demanding the urgent unblocking of the border after two Ukrainian truck drivers died in the queues.

On Nov. 21, Slovakian activists seeking the return of permits for Ukrainian drivers joined the protest, blocking a major border crossing between Slovakia and Ukraine. The EU canceled permits for Ukrainian haulers last year.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Ukr ... -0003.html

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Germany pledges $1.4b for Ukraine; Russia deploys new missile
By REN QI in Moscow | China Daily Global | Updated: 2023-11-23 10:09

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Ukraine's Defence Minister Rustem Umerov and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius visit a military training centre at an undisclosed location in Ukraine Nov 21, 2023. [Photo/Agencie]

Germany has said it will give more military aid to Ukraine, during an unannounced visit to Kyiv by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

The European Union leader Charles Michel was also in Kyiv, becoming the latest high official to throw political clout behind Ukraine during a surprise trip.

A flurry of visits by senior Western officials has sought to reassure Ukraine of more military support as the world's attention shifts to the Middle East and questions emerge over United States funding for Ukraine.

The German aid, worth 1.3 billion euros ($1.4 billion) and including four further IRIS T-SLM air defense systems as well as artillery ammunition, was announced by Pistorius after talks with his Ukrainian counterpart, Rustem Umerov, in Kyiv.

Russia launched its special military operation in Ukraine in February last year, triggering the most serious confrontation between Russia and the West since the depths of the Cold War.

Russia said on Tuesday that it had thwarted Ukraine's attempts to land on the occupied eastern bank of the southern Kherson region, and said Kyiv's army had suffered "colossal losses".

"All attempts by the armed forces of Ukraine to conduct a landing operation in the Kherson area have failed," Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said at a meeting.

On Wednesday the news agency RIA cited Russia's defense ministry as saying Russia had deployed a new Yars intercontinental ballistic missile at the Kozelsk base in the Kaluga region, southwest of Moscow.

Russia has described the missile, developed in the 2000s and capable of carrying multiple thermonuclear warheads, as one of its newer weapons capable of piercing the missile shield used by the US and its allies.

Upgrading begins

The Kozelsk regiment, where the new missile was loaded into a silo, was the first one in Russia's strategic missile forces to start upgrading to silo-based Yars missiles, RIA said.

The missiles were initially deployed at other regiments in a mobile version.

The Kremlin declined to comment on remarks by the White House spokesman John Kirby that Iran may be considering providing Russia with ballistic missiles.

"We are developing relations with Iran, including in the field of military-technical cooperation, but we do not comment on this information," a Kremlin spokesman said.

Kirby said the US would monitor what was happening between Iran and Russia and take appropriate action as needed.

A senior Russian official said on Tuesday that Russia cannot coexist with the present "regime" in Kyiv, reaffirming Moscow's aim of "demilitarizing" Ukraine.

"The current regime (in Kyiv) is absolutely toxic," Russia's Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik said in Moscow. "We do not see any options for coexistence with it at the moment."

Russia could resist NATO as long as was needed to defeat Ukrainian forces, and the West would eventually lose interest, meaning the Kyiv leadership would collapse, Miroshnik said.

http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/20231 ... efabe.html

*******

It Was Expected...
... sort of. As Ria reports today:

МОСКВА, 22 ноя - РИА Новости. Новейший российский истребитель МиГ-35 применяется в ходе СВО, заявил РИА Новости генконструктор Объединенной авиастроительной корпорации (ОАК) Сергей Коротков.Первый полет истребителя состоялся в 2016 году, презентация машины - в 2017-м. По данным из открытых источников, в настоящее время на вооружении ВКС РФ находится шесть предсерийных образцов МиГ-35. "Сегодня в связи с теми событиями, которые происходят, машина участвует уже во всех операциях, которые проводятся. Ещё предстоят дальнейшие испытательные полеты завершить, и тогда министерство обороны примет окончательное решение", - сказал он, отвечая на вопрос, принято ли решение о серийных закупках МиГ-35 для ВКС РФ. Коротков отметил, что характеристики МиГ-35 "устраивают инозаказчика", параллельно ведутся переговоры о поставках на экспорт.

Translation: MOSCOW, November 22 - RIA Novosti. The newest Russian MiG-35 fighter is used during the SMO, General Designer of the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) Sergei Korotkov told RIA Novosti. The first flight of the fighter took place in 2016, the presentation of the aircraft took place in 2017. According to data from open sources, there are currently six pre-production MiG-35 models in service with the Russian Aerospace Forces. “Today, in connection with the events that are taking place, the vehicle is already participating in all operations that are being carried out. Further test flights still have to be completed, and then the Ministry of Defense will make a final decision,” he said, answering the question whether a decision has been made on serial production procurement of MiG-35 for the Russian Aerospace Forces. Korotkov noted that the characteristics of the MiG-35 “satisfy the foreign customer”; in parallel, negotiations are underway on export supplies.

But some combat aviation fans already made the video, wink, wink.



The fact that MiG-35s fly in SMO is, certainly, indicative of Russian MoD and even Kremlin probably having doubts about retiring a legendary brand. What is the real need for MiG-35 I don't know, but this aircraft is created for fighting military conflicts of high intensity and if anything comes to mind as a remote NATO equivalent--it is French Rafale. Keep in mind that MiG-35 was taking part in famous Indian tender which was won (I mean bought, LOL)) by Rafale.

Both are closely matched in performance, but MiG, naturally, carries weapon systems which France doesn't produce and, of course, it is a super-maneuverable fighter. Rafale is not. So, judge for yourself the veracity of all kinds of rumors around MiG-35, also keep in mind a lot of fake "technical data" from Western sources about it, especially against the background of Rafale costing India around $220 million a pop, LOL. Plus, MiG-35's part in SMO is also a crucial entry to its resume as a fighter which fought in real war, not some BS bombing with impunity some third world nation. Rafale doesn't have it, MiG-35 now does and that plays a huge role in future export contracts. Forestalling any questions about S-75 Checkmate and MiG-35--two totally different niches. And, naturally, MiG-35 is a fully netcentric aircraft. So, here it is. Happy Thanksgiving to those to whom applies:)

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/11 ... ected.html

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Breaking stereotypes
November 24, 23:11

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There is a need for more women to command companies on the front lines. We have already passed the stereotype that a woman cannot fight. Now we need to overcome the stereotype “a woman cannot command,” (c) Secretary of State of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Lyudmila Daragan.

There is already a shortage of male cannon fodder and in the future there will be an even greater shortage (at the current level of losses), so agitation for the mobilization and sending of women to the front is growing.

Next, stereotypes will be destroyed that students, schoolchildren, disabled people of the first group and many other interesting categories cannot fight. If you start fighting until the last Ukrainian, it is so difficult to stop destroying stereotypes.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8785720.html

Google Translator

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The rat problem
November 24, 16:08

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The rat problem

Hordes of rodents that appeared in the trenches of fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the Northern Military District zone became an unexpected enemy for them. Military personnel are faced with problems accessing the Internet because mice are chewing through wiring, the Japan Times reports.

“I didn’t see a single mouse last winter, but this fall and early winter there are just crowds of them,” the publication quotes Ukrainian soldier Dmitry as saying. According to him, the rodents ruined the sweater his wife sent him, and they also like to attack Starlink satellite Internet terminals.

The author of the article said that mice are flooding the trenches in search of food and warmth, and Ukrainian soldiers are trying to fight them with sticky traps. He added that at this time of year, rodents are not the only problem for Ukrainians: due to the leaves falling from the trees, it has become easier for Russian drones to detect the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

https://lenta.ru/news/2023/11/23/vsu-st ... otivnikom/ - zinc

Ours have exactly the same thing. In this regard, the problem is common. I already wrote about this once - there is a really serious dominance of mice and rats at the front. Various rat poisons and cats help only partially. Where they are not fought at all, they multiply at a serious rate. Some individuals fatten to fairly large sizes. Such a greeting from the First World

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8784802.html

New mine
November 25, 7:36

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New mine.

A dozen people have already sent this photo in different ways. It was discussed in the chat a few hours ago, but without an autopsy or x-ray it’s impossible to say for sure.

The most reasonable assumptions:

a new IED, possibly with a push target sensor and/or an inclined, vibration one. The body is as close as possible to objects on the ground, the color and incorrect silhouette contribute to camouflage.

One of the versions is that the delivery method is rocket or drone with a long range, as they were found near a populated area in the rear (at least 15-20 km).

Traces on the case possibly prove serial production (traces of pouring/moulding).

Be carefull! Act as with any unknown IED, fence it off, report to the commander, he will already make a decision, if there is no such possibility (it poses an immediate danger), destruction on the spot.

@treugolniklpr - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8786145.html

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Nov 26, 2023 1:53 pm

One Azov, two brigades
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/26/2023

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The return of Denis Prokopenko and military reorganization have led to a number of notable changes within the Azov movement. A fact of special relevance is that this new Azov Brigade is organizationally separated from the Third Assault Brigade of the ground army of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a brigade that includes another fundamental part of the historical Azov movement. Not in vain the commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade is Andriy Biletsky, with the presence in the brigade of another of Azov's historical commanders, Maksim Zhoryn.

The new brigade, fully integrated into the Armed Forces of Ukraine, provides continuity to the TrO volunteer unit, created on February 24, 2022 to confront the forces deployed in the Russian special operation in the Kiev region, a process later extended to Sumy and Kharkiv. Outside the center of Mariupol, surrounded by Russian and Republican forces, these volunteer units included both Azov veterans in the National Guard and representatives of the Azov political movement, including Biletsky and Zhoryn.

On March 9, 2022, the volunteer detachment was expanded to the OPSP «Azov», already part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. These forces were later integrated into a separate unit within the Ukrainian military structures as a special operations force: the SSO Azov. It is this SSO Azov that will finally constitute the 3rd Assault Brigade in January 2023. This brigade, intended to participate in both offensive and defensive operations, is integrated into the ground forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is a differentiating aspect with respect to the group led by Prokopenko, subordinate to the Ministry of the Interior.

The creation of the 3rd Brigade responds largely to the action of the first commander of Azov and previously of the Men in Black, Andriy Biletsky. He assumes command of both the brigade and tactical group "A" in the Bakhmut area, the operations center of the 3rd Brigade. His main success has consisted of the takeover in September of this year of the Kleshcheevka-Andreevka axis, in the Donbass area located southwest of Donetsk and Artyomovsk.

Consistent with its role as a refuge for some of the main political figures of the Ukrainian National Corps, the 3rd Assault Brigade is formed according to the traditional principles of the original Azov political-military movement: “Ukrainian centrism, traditionalism, hierarchy and responsibility . ” After passing a difficult selection process, only “ highly motivated and strong-spirited fighters, ready for constant improvement and tough battles with the enemy on the front, ” enter the ranks of the Brigade . A model of classic militarist far-right, more clearly politicized than Prokopenko's Azov in which ultranationalism tends to disguise itself as military professionalism.

The separation between the dynamics of Prokopenko's Azov Brigade and Biletsky and Zhoryn's Brigade seems more than a simple functional restructuring, although there may be different interpretations depending on the speeches of the main officials of the 3rd Brigade.

In the case of Andriy Biletsky, a recent interview with Ukrainska Pravda shows some signs of separation. When considering the existence of communications with Prokopenko's Azov, Biletsky notes, for example: “ Yes there is. But let's put it this way, it would be more correct to say, at the bottom. He is most active at the level of company commanders, battalion commanders, etc. Because? Because the brigade headquarters has a huge workload. And the guys below, due to their connection with the Azov family, actively share their experience . In other words: contact between Brigade commanders is limited.

Regarding the existence of two separate brigades, beyond the pretension of unity and lack of separation, the answer also leaves room for few doubts regarding an effective division, at least operational: “There is no separation . «Azov» was a single organization. But then there was a limited operation, which we ourselves called "anti-terrorist operation", although it was a war with Russia. And now there is a full-scale national war. And, of course, the time has come to expand the military component .” “ I think it is a scale of solid principles that have proven effective in war .” In other words: the Azov movement is unique, but the needs of a large-scale war make a functional separation inevitable (perhaps, from the point of view of the Ukrainian state and its armed forces, because a single Azov, structured in two brigades , could end up creating a parallel army).

It is, however, when referring to the current political weight of the National Corpus where Biletsky's position is more explicit: “ the entire National Corpus is in the Third Assault Brigade, or in the DSHV somewhere, or in the special forces, in the "Kraken" itself, etc. …now 90% of the National Corpus is serving somewhere. Some died, others were wounded, but 90% serve or have served in the Ukrainian army .” The lack of specific mention, in this part of Biletsky's speech, of Prokopenko's current Azov is significant.

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If the position of Maksim Zhoryn is analyzed, his numerous and periodic references to Prokopenko, presented as “ legendary commander of the Azov regiment, a man of steel, my brother and friend ” after the return of Redis and his commands to Turkey by the Russian Federation , they end completely at the end of 2022. In 2023, not even Redis 's return to Ukraine, or its reintegration into Azov, deserves a simple comment from Zhoryn. After the constitution of the 3rd Brigade, references to Azov also disappear from the Telegram of which he was the highest police and military figure of that police-military organization in the middle of the last decade.

The former friends of the Borodach Division seem to be less so these days. Time will tell if this is for appearance, fun or reality. When the political division once again supersedes the current military unity in nationalist Ukraine.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/26/28636/

Google Translator

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What's happening in the NWO zone: chronicle for November 25November 25, 2023
Rybar

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On the southern flank of the Avdeevsky sector, Russian military personnel, during fierce fighting, were able to liberate an industrial zone near the Yasinovataya-2 station . Ukrainian formations suffered significant losses and retreated under artillery fire from the Russian Armed Forces. Meanwhile, fighting is taking place on the northern flank towards Novokalinovo and the vicinity of Stepovoye .

Fierce fighting continues in the Kherson direction near Krynki , where Russian troops are working to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces' bridgehead in the village. According to preliminary data, the RF Armed Forces managed to achieve some success in this regard, but there is no exact information on this matter yet.

At night, the Russian Armed Forces carried out strikes with drones of the Geranium family on rear Ukrainian targets. A significant part of the selected targets were in Kiev . The Ukrainian authorities, as before, stated that they had shot down almost all the devices, but the “sudden” power outages in the capital indicate the opposite.

Strikes by the Russian Armed Forces on Ukrainian rear targets

Early in the morning, the Russian Armed Forces attacked targets on the territory of Ukraine with kamikaze drones of the Geranium family . According to Ukrainian authorities, this was the largest raid since the start of the special operation - 75 drones, 71 of which were allegedly shot down. UAV flights were reported in Sumy, Chernigov, Cherkassy, ​​Kirovograd, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk and Kiev regions. At the same time, the main focus of the attack was directed at the Ukrainian capital: local residents reported explosions and air defense operations in the Solomensky, Dneprovsky, Goloseevsky and Pechersky districts of Kiev .

Representatives of the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine noted that in the center of Kiev, as a result of the attack, 77 residential buildings and 120 institutions were left without electricity. In addition, according to unconfirmed reports, during the raid, the territory of the Boryspil international airport and one of the infrastructure facilities were also hit .

Nevertheless, the Ukrainian authorities, in the usual manner, announced the interception of almost all air targets, attributing the damage solely to falling debris. And the number of downed drones should not be surprising - Kiev has more than once reported that more targets were intercepted than actually fired ammunition.


It is interesting that this time the Russian Armed Forces used kamikaze drones painted black, which makes them difficult to detect by searchlights at night. Whether the use of devices in this format was a one-time event or a similar practice that makes the UAV even more effective is still unknown.

Another Ukrainian Armed Forces attack on Crimea

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The attempt of Ukrainian formations to strike Crimea that night went almost unnoticed . Closer to midnight, two drones from the Nikopol area in the Dnepropetrovsk region were shot down while approaching Feodosia . Judging by the direction of the flight, the target of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was again either an oil depot in the city or a power plant. The drones, skirting the air defense position areas, were able to reach the Sea of ​​Azov and were subsequently destroyed over Vladislavovka .

As with recent attacks in the north and west of the peninsula, similar tactics can be seen. The Ukrainian Armed Forces attack with small forces, “probing” the defense in search of weak points. Previously, we assumed that the enemy currently does not have continuous supplies of UAVs. Therefore, for massive raids, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are accumulating strike weapons. And as part of the preparation and identification of objects, Ukrainian formations are sending small groups of drones to Crimea.

The situation on the front line and combat operations

In the Starobelsk direction the situation remains stable. Several clashes with Ukrainian formations took place near Sinkovka . The enemy continues to suffer significant losses in the Kupyansky sector: for example, in the Ivanovka area, the Ukrainian Armed Forces brought the 32nd brigade to the rear area west of Kupyansk for restoration .


In the Soledar direction, battles for tactical heights near Kleshcheevka continue without significant changes . To the south, Russian military personnel managed to expand the zone of control near Andreevka , occupying several strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

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In the Avdeevsky sector, Russian fighters, during several days of heavy and bloody fighting, cleared the last building in the Yasinovataya-2 industrial zone in the south. Since 2014, the industrial zone was held by Ukrainian formations, and now, despite all the fortifications erected and the transfer of reserves, it has come under the complete control of the Russian Army. This line has not only symbolic significance, but is also important tactically, since it is located on a hill relative to the southern outskirts of Avdeevka. The southern neighborhoods will be shelled from this line, which will worsen the situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.


At the same time, on the northern flank, Russian units also achieved small but extremely important results: servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces were able to gain a foothold near the railway adjacent to the coke plant. During a successful assault from the gold dump and pumping station, it was possible to completely knock out the enemy from the site and expand the control zone at the plant. In intercepts of negotiations, Ukrainian formations complain about a lack of support. According to members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the command completely abandoned the Avdeevka garrison, leaving its subordinates to fend for themselves. At the same time, the transfer of reinforcements continues. Separate formations of the 116th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were transferred from the Zaporozhye direction , and the 45th separate rifle battalion was transferred to the subordination of the 31st mechanized brigade due to losses in the brigade.


There are no changes in the Orekhovsky sector : clashes periodically occur near Rabotino and Verbovoy . Ukrainian formations tried to attack again, but suffered losses and retreated. Earlier, Russian military personnel covered enemy forces attempting to rotate with artillery fire. As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost several units of Western equipment, including American MaxxPro armored personnel carriers .


In the Kherson direction, Ukrainian marines continue to hold a bridgehead in the central part of the village of Krynki . Russian troops, in turn, drive the enemy out of the forest south of the village, and also launch massive attacks on enemy positions in the populated area itself. At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces are shelling Ukrainian Armed Forces facilities on the opposite bank. According to some reports, the enemy’s position in the sector has deteriorated significantly, but there is no exact information yet.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas
In recent days, there has been a tendency to reduce shelling of the Russian border area. The governor of the Belgorod region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said that yesterday the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not fire at all in the region for the first time in a long time. Nevertheless, today the enemy launched attacks on the village of Novopetrovka in the Valuysky district.

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During the day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces again shelled the cities of the Donetsk agglomeration . The enemy's targets were Donetsk, Gorlovka, Zaitsevo, Yasinovataya and several settlements in the Yasinovatsky district . In the capital of the DPR, two civilians were injured as a result of an explosive device being dropped from a UAV; they were provided with all the necessary medical care.

Imagethat at the meeting of heads of state the issue of indirect supplies of Swiss military equipment through other countries will be raised once again. Previously, the country's authorities refused to send weapons to Ukraine , but in the middle of the week Alain Berset approved the sale of 25 obsolete Leopard tanks to Germany, which could subsequently be transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Nevertheless , Berlin promised that the tanks would remain exclusively in NATO or EU countries. However, there have already been cases before when supplies “exclusively” for the bloc’s allies unexpectedly ended up on Ukrainian soil, which casts doubt on the country’s established neutrality in armed conflicts.

About the advantages of Russian electronic warfare through the eyes of Western media

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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, during a meeting with his Czech counterpart Petr Fiala in Prague, said that the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine cannot be solved by the military supply of APU. Peaceful negotiations could be a real solution to the conflict, but his opinion was not appreciated by Fiala, who pointed out that the Czech Republic is an unwavering ally and supplier of weapons to Ukraine.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

Google Translator

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Its Official - U.S. & UK Pressed Ukraine To Reject Peace Deal With Russia

We already know that Ukraine, in early April 2022, rejected to make peace with Russia. We know this from talks by the former prime minister of Israel Naftali Bennet, from the former Turkish foreign minister, from former chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schroeder as well as from reporting from Ukraine.

But only now do we hear the same story from a Ukrainian official:

Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo - 21:45 UTC · Nov 24, 2023
🇺🇦🇷🇺🚨‼️ BOMBSHELL: Ukraine admits that Russia only wanted neutrality from them!

Russia wanted Ukraine to be neutral like Finnland was! But Ukraine was not sure if they can trust it and then Boris Johnson came and said:
-> “We will not sign anything, let’s do war!”

I knew it!
video


The video in the tweet above has English subtitles. It is part of a Ukrainian TV interview with the the leader of the Servant of the People parliament faction David Arakhamia by the journalist Natalia Moseychuk. In March and April 2022 Arkhamia had led the Ukrainian delegation at peace talks with the Russians in Belarus and Turkey.

There is video on Youtube with an announcement of the interview, but not of the interview itself.

Arnault Bertrand relays here what was said:

- He confirms that Russia’s principal goal for the war wasn’t to invade the whole of Ukraine but to force Ukraine to become a neutral country that would not be part of NATO: “[Russia] really hoped almost to the last moment that they would force us to sign such an agreement so that we would take neutrality. It was the most important thing for them. They were prepared to end the war if we agreed to, – as Finland once did, – neutrality, and committed that we would not join NATO. In fact, this was the key point. Everything else was simply rhetoric and political ‘seasoning’ about denazification, the Russian-speaking population and blah-blah-blah."

- When asked why Ukraine did not agree to this, here’s what he says: “First, in order to agree to this point, it is necessary to change the Constitution. Our path to NATO is written in the Constitution. Secondly, there was no confidence in the Russians that they would do it. This could only be done if there were security guarantees. We could not sign something, step away, everyone would relax there, and then they would [invade] even more prepared – because they had, in fact, gone in unprepared for such a resistance. Therefore, we could only explore this route when there is absolute certainty that this will not happen again. There is no such certainty. Moreover, when we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kyiv and said that we would not sign anything with them at all, and let's just fight.”


Strana also reports, in Russian, of the interview and comments (machine translation):

Why did the Ukrainian authorities refuse such a lucrative contract in the spring of 2022?
Arahamia makes two arguments: First, it was necessary to change the Constitution, and secondly, there was no confidence in the Russians that they would fulfill the agreements.

Both arguments are ambiguous, to put it mildly. Yes, it is forbidden to change the Constitution during martial law, but if you wanted to, you could find a way out here – after all, this is a technical problem if there is political will (and since the Ukrainian authorities were negotiating about this at all, they saw some options). And as for trust, this is an even stranger thesis, since according to the agreement, it was not Ukraine that was supposed to withdraw troops, but Russia. Moreover, in exchange only for a decision on neutral status, which could then be replayed at any time. Therefore, in this case, the question of trust and "throw-not throw" was primarily before Moscow, and not before Kiev.

Later, the Ukrainian authorities called another reason for the refusal-the tragedy in Bucha. However, if we recall Zelensky's statements at that time, he immediately after the tragedy said that negotiations with the Russian Federation should still be conducted.

"Each such tragedy, each such Butch will beat you on the hands in certain negotiations. But we need to find opportunities for such steps, " Zelensky said on April 5, 2022. And only later did his statements become more categorical.


The arguments are bogus and the real reason why Zelenski rejected the agreement is a different one:

Therefore, usually, among the main motives of the president to refuse to conclude agreements with Putin in 2022, they call the fact that he (perhaps influenced by the arguments and promises of Western allies) came to the conclusion that Russia is not ready for a big war, and therefore Ukraine, with the help of the West, can completely defeat the Russian army and dictate to Moscow their own terms of peace, which would provide for the withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders of 1991, the payment of reparations, and so on.
That is, figuratively speaking, Zelensky chose instead of a titmouse in his hands, a crane in the sky.

At the same time, all those who remember the situation at the beginning of April 2022 find it hard to believe that the Ukrainian authorities could have been so optimistic then.
...
In such circumstances, it seems almost improbable that Zelensky could refuse the extremely attractive "tit-for-tat" in the form of Russia's withdrawal of troops from almost all the occupied territories of Ukraine without a fight, believing in the possibility of receiving a "crane" in the form of Moscow's surrender (which, as is known, has not yet happened).

There must have been some force majeure circumstances that prompted Kiev to reject such favorable conditions for ending the war in the spring of 2022.

What these circumstances are becomes clear from the same interview with Arahamia.

He said that the then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson came to Kiev and said that "we will not sign anything with them at all, let's just fight."

The question arises-what exactly did Johnson mean by "we will not sign anything with them"? The answer here may be one – Western countries refused to give joint guarantees of Ukraine's security with Russia, which were supposed to be attached to the peace treaty and the neutral status agreement.

Arakhamia also said this directly in an interview: "The Western allies advised us not to agree to ephemeral security guarantees, which at that time could not be given at all."

Recall that security guarantees under the then plan were supposed to be given by Russia, leading Western countries and a number of other major world powers. But if the NATO countries refused to give guarantees and only the Russian Federation and, possibly, China and Turkey would give them, then this would actually mean a complete break in Ukraine's relations with the Western world. What Zelensky, of course, could not do.

In other words, it was the position of the Western allies "let's just fight" that had a decisive influence on the decision of the Ukrainian authorities to abandon the agreements with the Russian Federation in the spring of 2022.


Several hundred thousand Ukrainian men and ten thousands of Russian ones are now dead. All because U.S. and UK politicians, primarily Biden and Johnson, desired to "weaken Russia".

Russia is now stronger than it has been in early 2022. Its economy is growing while Europe's is stagnating at best. To make peace now with Russia will cost Ukraine some 20+% of the country. In April 2022 it could have regained control over all of it except for Crimea.

Now it is too late:

As for the position of Kiev, Arakhamia once again stated it in the same interview, saying that the negotiations are not profitable at the moment, since "our negotiating position is very bad." But who does time work for? If in 2022 it was possible to end the war by liberating almost the entire territory of the country without a fight in exchange for a neutral status, now there are no such options. And the alternative is quite different – a long war with all its victims and risks, or peace/truce along the front line with the actual consolidation of Russian control over the occupied territories (and, it is possible, this will also include additional requirements in the form of the same neutral status, for example). The main question is what will be the conditions and negotiating positions in the future and whether the Ukrainian authorities have a clear understanding that they will not be even worse than they are now.

The question I have is why is this coming out now?

What have Zelenski and the leader of his party faction agreed to finally let the Ukrainian people know what had happened. Do they hope that Ukrainians will blame the West and not those in Ukraine who decided to follow it? Do they prepare their people for a turn towards Russia?

Let me know what you think of this.

Posted by b on November 25, 2023 at 15:31 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/11/i ... .html#more

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Wars and Revolutionary Transformations
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on NOVEMBER 24, 2023
Christopher Black

Wars Revolutionary Transformations

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And maybe… something good does come out of this tragedy … the loss of America’s claimed moral hegemony; a loss so severe that it can lead to a revolutionary transformation of nations’ and peoples’ world view, an awakening of their consciousness to a new reality of a future without American and European aggression, an awakening that will make it more difficult for the claimed hegemon and its allies to continue their militaristic and imperialistic policies in a world united against them.

On Monday 20 November, as the liberation of Adveeka draws closer with every day and the Russian forces continue to push the Kiev forces out of the Donbass and inflict heavy losses in men and material on their forces all along the front, and as funding for Ukraine dries up and the Kiev regime sits on a sharp blade, impaled by their own delusions and corruption, the US Secretary of Defence, Loyd Austin, made a quick trip to Kiev.

He met with President Zelensky and military command officers and then gave a short interview to the press to state that, in effect, the United States controls all military operations in Ukraine. He thereby made clear, once again, what has been clear from the beginning, that the United States is in direct conflict with Russia, which he described several times as “the enemy.”

He stated that the Kiev regime and its military command assured him that they would continue to press Russia and that victory was just around the corner, that the Kiev forces were learning from their mistakes and had inflicted “significant losses on Russian forces” and would continue to do so. The entire thrust of his remarks made it clear that the Kiev regime answers to Washington and that their forces are at the disposal of the Americans, to be used as they direct.

According to Austin, the war in Ukraine is going well, with just a few temporary setbacks, and that “we and our allies will continue to support Ukraine and give it what it needs” to continue the war against Russia. He and the “journalists” that were allowed to ask him questions-he referred to one American woman as “colonel” indicating she was a military press officer-played their new game of pretending that the war was not lost, it was only a “stalemate” and that the Kiev forces would become “more dynamic,” in hitting back at Russia.

But when it came to concrete assistance to their Kiev legions he could only state that the US had that day approved 100 million dollars in new funding, money found in some previous spending allowances, since the US Congress has not approved new funding of any substantial amounts due to internal bickering over money and with most military aid now going to Israel to assist it in committing war crimes against the Palestinian people. In fact, when asked how he justifies sending weapons and ammunition to Israel being used to commit those crimes, he brushed off the question with a stock phrase that Israel makes its own decisions and the US encourages them to obey international law. But, while Israel is receiving massive military aid and funds, the new aid to Ukraine is a paltry sum, paying for one HIMARS system, after the others sent were destroyed, some missiles and some ammunition, enough to last a fighting army one day. But it was made to seem significant.

He then made a quick shift to state that both wars were important to the USA to protect the “rules-based order” and that Russian “aggression, an attack on a peaceful country,” had to be resisted. However, not one of the journalists present replied, “Well why then is the United States still invading Syria and Iraq, why did it invade Afghanistan and Iraq, why did it overthrow the legitimate government of Ukraine?”

Well, we have the answer to that in President Biden’s pompous, colonialist ravings in his op-ed piece published in the Washington Post on November 18th where he made the claim again that the USA is the “exceptional” nation, standing above the rest and can do anything it wants since it considers
itself judge in its own cause, all powerful, to whom the rest of the world must bow in obeisance.

He wrote,

Both Putin and Hamas are fighting to wipe a neighbouring democracy off the map.”
By this, he attempted to link Russia to Hamas and to confuse people because it was the United States that eliminated democracy in Ukraine with the coup of 2014 and supported the illegitimate puppet governments there ever since, and since Israel can hardly be called a beacon of democracy with a self-serving fascist like Netanyahu in charge and the apartheid state the Israelis have created.

Biden then repeated the old domino theory used to justify the Vietnam War, that, if the Russians are not stopped in Ukraine, there will be a “broader conflict.” To read his piece is a surreal experience, as if one is reading a satire of himself and the United States, but, in discussing the war in Palestine and his equally deluded and impossible solutions, he openly stated why the USA is willing to be a party to the war crimes of Israel. It’s about control of the region to further an American dream project that is meant to compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. He wrote,

“Just weeks before Oct. 7, I met in New York with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The main subject of that conversation was a set of substantial commitments that would help both Israel and the Palestinian territories better integrate into the broader Middle East. That is also the idea behind the innovative economic corridor that will connect India to Europe through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, which I announced together with partners at the Group of 20 summit in India in early September. Stronger integration between countries creates predictable markets and draws greater investment. Better regional connection — including physical and economic infrastructure — supports higher employment and more opportunities for young people. That’s what we have been working to realize in the Middle East. It is a future that has no place for Hamas’s violence and hate, and I believe that attempting to destroy the hope for that future is one reason that Hamas instigated this crisis.”

In other words, the Hamas’ resistance, the Palestinian people, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran are in the way of huge profits for US companies and investors and must be crushed, And first to be crushed are the Palestinian people who are to him then completely expendable. This is the American rules-based order; gangsterism, war and genocide as state policy.

The rest of the op-ed parrots Israel propaganda, calls for an impossible two-state solution, meaning that the Palestinians would be forced into unviable enclaves controlled by Israel, and then makes the ridiculous claim that out of war comes peace. So this war must continue. There can be no cease-fire because, you see, the more people you kill, the better the outcome. This is the leader of the claimed exceptional nation, stooping to the platitudes of barbarism.

No, Joe Biden couldn’t care less about peoples lives, only votes and power, which perhaps explains why he wrote the piece, to placate the critics in his own party and American voters who are turning on him in droves because of American actions with Israel against the Palestinians. Those he is just a front for demanded he write it to try to square the circle of advancing a policy of barbarism while trying to appear to be moral.

It is meant to bamboozle the common man and woman. The American people are thrown the choice of Biden for president again, at war with Russia and China, or Trump again, who prefers war with Mexico. War is their answer to all problems. But wars can also lead to revolutionary transformations.

For whereas America’s allies, and those who fear its power, have long pretended to accept its moralistic and humanitarian pretexts for American aggression against the nations of the world, they can no longer do so when confronted with the images flooding our consciousness of the atrocities being committed in Gaza. The United States has lost its pretended moral leadership and has been exposed for what it is. And maybe Biden is right, something good does come out of this tragedy, just not what he thinks, but instead, the loss of America’s claimed moral hegemony; a loss so severe that it can lead to a revolutionary transformation of nations’ and peoples’ world view, an awakening of their consciousness to a new reality of a future without American and European aggression, an awakening that will make it more difficult for the claimed hegemon and its allies to continue their militaristic and imperialistic policies in a world united against them.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/11/ ... ormations/

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Poland’s De Facto Blockade Of Ukraine Is Its Outgoing Government’s Last Power Play

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ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 25, 2023

This is also Poland’s last realistic chance to defend its territorial integrity in the face of the coming years’ threats.

Poland is poised[/img] to become Germany’s largest-ever vassal state upon former Prime Minister and European Commission President Donald Tusk’s likely return to the premiership following the liberal-globalist opposition coalition’s victory in last month’s elections. Those who are interested in learning more about how this is expected to unfold should review this analysis here, which focuses on how the interplay between EU, German, and NATO policies will likely lead to this geopolitical outcome.

Since that fateful vote took place, Polish truckers now even farmers have imposed a de facto blockade against Ukraine that the outgoing government hasn’t broken, which can be regarded as that party’s last power play aimed at giving their country a fighting chance at preserving some of its sovereignty. Here’s a collection of news items about this development from the beginning of the month in order to bring readers up to speed since the Western media hasn’t given it the attention that it deserves:

* “EU state blocking Ukrainian vehicles – Spiegel”

* “Ukrainian envoy condemns Polish trucker blockade”

* “Protesters in EU state blocking aid to Kiev – Ukrainian official”

* “Polish farmers to join Ukraine blockade – Bloomberg”

* “Ukrainians warned of food shortages”

* “Ukraine counting costs of Polish border blockade”

* “Polish truckers blocking Ukraine military cargos – media”

This scenario was actually forecast in early October in the author’s piece about how “Morawiecki Suspects That Zelensky Struck A Deal With Germany Behind Poland’s Back”. It was predicted that Poland could impose a de facto blockade against Ukraine if the ruling party won in order to coerce that country into distancing itself from Germany to a degree, which sought to replace Poland’s desired sphere of influence there as part of its regional power play against it. Here’s the pertinent excerpt from that piece.:

“Poland could threaten to stop the transit of third countries’ (especially Germany’s) military and economic aid to Ukraine until Kiev pays restitution for [the Przewodow incident] in the form of institutionalizing its envisaged sphere of influence there. What’s being proposed is a remix of the 1938 ultimatum that Poland gave to Lithuania, albeit this time without the implied threat of armed force if Ukraine doesn’t agree. Nevertheless, the threat of cutting off that country’s military and economic lifeline would likely be sufficient for coercing Kiev into complying with Warsaw’s demands.”

As it turned out, Poland did indeed impose a de facto blockade against Ukraine, though the ruling party and its potential allies failed to win the majority of parliamentary seats during last month’s elections. Nevertheless, their refusal to break up the trucker-farmer blockade of that former Soviet Republic strongly implies tacit approval for it, and nobody should be surprised if it’s later revealed that that they played a role in organizing this behind the scenes to some extent.

From the outgoing government’s perspective, the restoration of Poland’s sphere of influence over Ukraine in the face of aggressive German attempts to replace it is required for their country to have a fighting chance at preserving its sovereignty vis-à-vis Germany during Tusk’s next premiership. Even though he’s expected to subordinate Poland to German hegemony as the hyperlinked analysis at the beginning of this piece explained, this desired geopolitical reversal could impede that.

To elaborate, the worst-case scenario for Poland is that it becomes Germany’s largest-ever vassal state and then plays second fiddle to Ukraine in Berlin’s envisaged “Mitteleuropa”, which would run the risk of Berlin rewarding Kiev for forthcoming preferential reconstruction contracts with influence over Warsaw. This could in practice take the form of forcing Poland to accept even more Ukrainian migrants than it already has, all with the intent of them then becoming citizens and forming their own voting bloc.

If these “Weapons of Mass Migration” concentrate along the border region that the briefly lived post-WWI Ukrainian state at one time claimed as its own, then these newfound demographic realities and the creation of a powerful German-backed voting bloc could one day threaten Poland’s territorial integrity. It’s therefore imperative to avert this worst-case scenario through all realistic means possible, ergo why the outgoing government strongly appears to tacitly approve of the ongoing de facto blockade.

If it succeeds in coercing Ukraine into restoring Poland’s sphere of influence over the country that Germany just recently replaced over the summer, ideally by institutionalizing it in some legal form prior to the incumbents leaving office, then Poland’s territorial integrity can more confidently be defended. As regards Tusk’s plans to subordinate Poland to German hegemony, he’ll struggle to do so completely since that would necessitate a full-fledged purge of his country’s permanent bureaucracy.

In particular, he’d have to remove all conservative-nationalists from the military, intelligence, and diplomatic branches thereof (collectively referred as the “deep state”), which is a herculean task that he might possibly attempt but won’t be able to completely implement. Any serious moves in this direction could also provoke large-scale protests or similar such socio-economic disruptions that could be orchestrated by those same forces exactly as they’re suspected of partially orchestrating the blockade.

Just like the liberal-globalist “deep state” worked against Trump’s agenda in the US, so too could Poland’s conservative-nationalist counterparts work against Tusk’s in order to sabotage his goal of subordinating Poland to German hegemony. To be clear, they won’t be able to stop it entirely even in the best-case scenario just like Trump’s “deep state” opponents couldn’t entirely stop his agenda, but they could still largely derail it and buy time till the next elections, which is good enough given the circumstances.

If they don’t restore Poland’s recently lost sphere of influence over Ukraine before handing over control of the government to Tusk, however, then impending threats to Poland’s territorial integrity could become a fait accompli by the time the next polls are held in the worst-case scenario. That’s why the de facto blockade of Ukraine can be regarded not just as the outgoing government’s last power play, but as Poland’s last realistic chance to defend its territorial integrity in the face of the coming years’ threats.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/polands- ... of-ukraine

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Avdeevskaya industrial plant all
November 25, 20:51

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The Avdiivka industrial zone was liberated after 8 years of occupation.

The industrial zone in the area of ​​the Yasinovataya 2 railway station has been completely liberated from the occupation that lasted almost since 2014.
Not yesterday, not this morning, not three days ago, not at lunchtime, but right now.
The summary is published at the moment when the last battle, with superior enemy forces, died down, and the last Taras, who rested on the wet ground, received what they were looking for here.

Neither industrial buildings and basements, nor long-term fortifications, nor cluster munitions that the enemy poured in tens of thousands, nor numerical superiority could help him stay in this fortified area.
In very difficult conditions, our soldiers showed the highest level of assault operations.
The high level of interaction between infantry, tanks, reconnaissance and artillery made it possible to squeeze the Ukrainians out of well-fortified positions in a very short time, and with the minimum possible losses in such conditions.

Congratulations to everyone involved, the boys did an incredible job in an incredible time frame.
We have always said that with the proper level of fire support, the Russian army will overcome any enemy on this planet and all neighboring ones.
Everything will be as Russia needs it!


https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z -

Counterstrike zinc at the Avdeevskaya industrial plant is now completely a thing of the past.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8787442.html

Liberated industrial zone of Avdeevka
November 25, 22:43

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The first shots of the liberated Avdeevka industrial zone. Fights for it have been going on since 2014.

(Videos at link. Another shambles.)


For the Russian Armed Forces, this is an important tactical success in the Donetsk direction.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8787491.html

The deaf community decided not to bow
November 25, 12:49

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In the deaf community they decided not to bow.

In Ukraine they decided to get rid of the Russian sign language used by deaf-mute Ukrainians. Journalist Alexander Khrebet spoke about this in a material for the Ukrainian publication Kyiv Independent.

As Natalya Adanyuk, a member of the expert commission of the Ukrainian Society of the Deaf, reported, the country is trying to abandon all gestures that have at least some hint of “Russianness.” In particular, in her opinion, it is necessary to find a replacement for the gesture of gratitude in Russian, which looks like a bow. Instead, an international analogue should be used, since “Ukrainians should not bow to anyone ,” Adanyuk believes.

At the same time, the article notes that the country’s authorities do not show proper care for deaf Ukrainians. For example, the office of the country's President Vladimir Zelensky does not provide sign language interpretation for his statements. Earlier, the language ombudsman of Ukraine Taras Kremin called for the abandonment of “Ukrainian-Russian bilingualism on air” on TV channels.


How are the degenerates doing there who have been telling us since 2014 that no one is stopping you from speaking the language you want in Ukraine.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8786178.html

The hunt has begun
colonelcassad
November 26, 13:42

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The first photographs of the Abrams are somewhere near the front line.

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It is unknown where the first one was made. The second is presumably in the Kupyansk area.

The hunt has begun. We are waiting for the first burnt

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8788777.html

Google Translator

*******

The EU Confirmed That Over Half A Million Ukrainian Men Fled To Escape Conscription

ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 26, 2023

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Zelensky’s forthcoming conscription drive might be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back and could result in the Maidan scenario and/or perhaps even the Zaluzhny-led mutiny that he’s so afraid of nowadays.

The EU’s official statistics body Eurostat confirmed that an estimated 650,000 military-age Ukrainian men entered the bloc since the start of Russia’s special operation, though they acknowledged that it could be much more since their data only accounts for those who’ve officially registered their status. The BBC reported on this shortly after Zelensky promised that a new conscription drive will begin next week, and the timing of their article can thus be interpreted as a subtle signal that they expect this policy to fail.

As it turns out, Zelensky’s parliamentary ally David Arakhamia admitted just the other day that former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson convinced the Ukrainians to abandon spring 2022’s Istanbul peace process with Russia despite the two warring sides having been on the brink of a deal. This makes the UK state broadcaster’s aforesaid signal bittersweet since their country is morally responsible at least in part for all the deaths over the past 20 months since Kiev pulled out of those peace talks.

“NATO’s Proxy War On Russia Through Ukraine Appears To Be Winding Down” for the many reasons enumerated in the preceding hyperlinked analysis, yet instead of recommencing those same talks like the West is reportedly pressuring him to do, Zelensky is hellbent on perpetuating the conflict. “Time Magazine Shared Some ‘Politically Inconvenient’ Truths About Ukraine” last month, one of which was an unnamed senior advisor saying that he has a messianic delusion of victory, and this proves it.

Amidst his spiraling rivalry with Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny, which the New York Times made sure that everyone was aware of after publishing a surprisingly candid piece about political-military tensions in Ukraine earlier this month, it can’t be ruled out that a mutiny might materialize. Zelensky seems to sense that something of the sort is brewing too after he condemned military officials who get involved in politics in his latest interview with The Sun, which was clearly directed against Zaluzhny.

Ukraine’s top general provoked the president’s ire at the beginning of the month when he told The Economist that the conflict had entered a “stalemate”. This was the closest that Kiev came to admitting that its over-hyped and ultra-expensive counteroffensive failed exactly as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal informed their audience in late August. It also importantly channeled the sentiment of most Ukrainians, who’ve grown fatigued and frustrated with the conflict.

Zelensky feared that Zaluzhny’s tacit admission of the counteroffensive’s failure and the naturally implied need to freeze the conflict exactly as the West has reportedly been pressuring him to do could lead to the Commander-in-Chief challenging him in the next presidential elections. With a view towards preemptively averting the scenario of him losing out to his top general, who’s increasingly becoming Ukraine’s most popular figure, Zelensky shortly thereafter ruled out holding any elections next year.

This enraged the populace, which even the BBC was forced to acknowledge in their piece about the “fierce row” that unfolded as a result of his authoritarian decision, and anti-government sentiment is expected to rise even further upon the unveiling of his new conscription drive sometime next week. “Zelensky Is Desperate To Preemptively Discredit Potentially Forthcoming Protests Against Him” after it became obvious that they’re about to begin, ergo why he claimed that Russia is plotting a “Maidan 3”.

Nobody believes that the Kremlin still has the influence over Ukrainian society that’s required to pull off that sort of regime change operation, but Zelensky could care less since the whole reason why he lied about this was to deter protesters and justify the secret police’s crackdown against those who defy him. His forthcoming conscription drive might be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back, however, and could result in the Maidan scenario and/or perhaps even the mutiny that he’s so afraid of nowadays.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-eu-c ... ver-half-a
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Nov 27, 2023 1:14 pm

diplomatic-military game
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/27/2023

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The failure of Ukrainian troops in their attempt to break the front and recover an important part of territories, endangering security or Russian control over Crimea, has caused in recent weeks the appearance of suggestions about the need to seek a negotiated resolution to the conflict. Unlike a year ago, these proposals do not come from alternative sectors but from the United States foreign policy establishment itself. The Wall Street Journal has called for forgetting “magical thinking,” and Richard Haas, former president of the Council of Foreign Relations, proposes a negotiation that accepts the loss of territories so that the Ukrainian government can focus on economic recovery and strengthening those territories. that maintains The possibility of negotiation has even appeared in the communications of NATO, which a few days ago wrote on its official social media profiles that one of its objectives was precisely to place Ukraine in a position of strength in the face of a future negotiation, the start of which it left in the hands of from Kiev. As David Arajamia, leader of the parliamentary group of Zelensky's party, recognized in an interview published in the last few hours, Ukraine is not currently in a position to negotiate.

The current counteroffensive, which has not represented the turning point that the countries that finance the Ukrainian war effort wanted, has shown what the balance of forces is and despite the triumphalist discourse that Kiev still wants to maintain, it does not favor Ukraine. Russia had been weakened in its political position by the withdrawal from the northern territories, which was in reality an admission that the initial plan had failed, and especially by the two military defeats at Kharkiv and Kherson. However, Ukraine's bet for 2023, the counteroffensive to fight for the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov, has been raised in such a way that, for Moscow, the simple maintenance of the front line is a form of victory and significantly reinforces its position. This year, Ukraine has had a flow of arms and financing that is difficult to repeat. Even so, the front remains stable in what even General Zaluzhny has described as a “stalemate.” The lack of military strength directly translates into diplomatic weakness in the face of a possible negotiation. Hence, the Ukrainian authorities have already begun to act as a pressure group in search of financing for the future offensive of 2024 with the promise that, this time, it will represent, according to Andriy Ermak, the definitive turning point.

“Russia will immediately sit at the negotiating table as soon as we call them,” David Arajamia stated in relation to the possibility of negotiating. His position, that he sees Moscow's desire to negotiate, contrasts with that of his party leadership, which has always hidden behind the idea of ​​Russian lack of will. However, it is the reality of war and the balance of power that determines that Ukrainian position. “The entire leadership of Ukraine, both military and political, is in favor of fighting,” Arajamia added to explain “why? Because we can't sit at a negotiating table now. Our negotiating position is very bad. “Why are we going to sit down now?”

Arajamia's words prove something obvious: Ukraine has not achieved sufficient military force to impose its position in negotiations that, currently, would involve sacrifices that Kiev is not willing to grant. In this sense, the parallel with what happened in the negotiation process of March and April 2022 is clear. In the interview, Arajamia also refers to that process, its results and the reasons why there was no agreement. His statements are especially important, not only because of his position at the head of the Ukrainian delegation, but because of the number of rumors that have occurred over the last year and a half about that summit and the reasons for the breakup of ties. the negotiations.

A few months after the Ukrainian rejection of the terms negotiated in Istanbul, Ukrainska Pravda gave Boris Johnson credit for derailing a possible deal by explaining to Zelensky that the West would not accept the deal even if Ukraine did. Later, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's words about the closeness of an agreement and the United States' refusal to negotiate were interpreted as a direct order to break off the talks. Finally, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schöeder, who also mediated between the two countries in those months, insisted on the power that Washington had over everything that happened in the process. The sum of the three arguments has given rise to a story according to which Russia and Ukraine would have been close to the final agreement or would have even reached it, but Western intervention forced Kiev to renounce it to focus on war as the only way. acceptable for conflict resolution. That narrative has always been nuanced, but some of David Arajamia's statements support the theory that, in addition to the Western will to fight Russia until final victory or until the last Ukrainian, the Kiev authorities did not really seek an agreement either.

In Istanbul and in the previous talks that led to the summit, Russia and Ukraine negotiated on three main points: the territorial question, NATO and security guarantees. Already at that time it was evident that this last aspect implied a negotiation between kyiv and Moscow on aspects that concerned third countries that, through leaks to the press, had made it clear that they would not comply. This is the case of the United States, which leaked to CNN that it was not willing to give Ukraine the security guarantees that were being proposed in the negotiation. Arajamia's words confirm this. kyiv needed security guarantees that depended on the outside. “They advised us not to enter into ephemeral security guarantees that could not be given at that time,” explained the leader of the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul. Arajamia also confirms what Schroeder said about the communication with Washington, which knew the details of the negotiations and had the draft agreements. “We consulted them, of course, because we understood that we were not fighting this war alone”; explains the leader of the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul. Even then, Ukraine was aware that it was fighting a proxy war. Although Arajamia denies that Ukraine's Western partners gave anything more than recommendations, his words denote the Western disinterest in seeking an agreement and the refusal to offer Kiev the security guarantees it demanded, which made the peace process unviable. negotiation.

The negotiations also involved the determination of borders and a search for accommodation for the territorial issue. The principle of agreement announced by Vladimir Medinsky, who headed the Russian delegation and who has not yet given his version of what happened in Istanbul, implied Ukraine's implicit acceptance of the loss of Crimea and Donbass, where the guarantees of peace would not come into force. Russian and Western security. As was quickly made clear with a tweet published by Mijailo Podolyak as soon as the agreement in principle was announced, this aspect was not feasible either. Contrary to what Medinsky suggested, Podolyak reversed the argument to affirm that the issue of Crimea was put back on the agenda. This position on the part of one of the people who had participated in the negotiation and which destroyed the principle of understanding is enough to observe that at least part of the Ukrainian delegation shared the Western will to reject an agreement.

This is also confirmed by the words of David Arajamia, which focus on two of the three aspects that he himself negotiated with Vladimir Medinsky: the issue of NATO and security guarantees. “They really hoped, almost until the last moment, that they would force us to sign that agreement so that we would adopt neutrality. That was the most important thing for them. "They were willing to end the war if we accepted, as Finland did in its day, neutrality and committed not to enter NATO," he explained, making it clear that this was Russia's priority, but also suggesting that the agreement It was never so close. Arajamia points to three arguments why it was not possible: the need to modify the Constitution to eliminate Atlanticist aspirations, distrust that Russia would fulfill the troop withdrawal it promised, and Boris Johnson's intervention stating that "let's fight." Compared to the idea that it was Boris Johnson, representing the Western bloc, who led the way, Arajamia's words show a more nuanced version with doubts about the viability of the agreement in the Ukrainian delegation itself.

These doubts also show Ukraine's intentions. The difficulties in modifying the Constitution arise only at times when measures have to be introduced that aim to compromise with the non-nationalist part of the country. This happened in the case of Minsk, when Ukraine completely rejected the possibility of introducing amendments on the special status for Donbass in the Constitution and it became an argument for rejecting the agreement with Russia in the case of withdrawing Atlanticist ambitions from the Magna Carta. introduced without any political or moral problem (there was no popular majority of support for NATO in the country). Something similar can be said of Arajamia's argument about the lack of confidence that Russia would fulfill its commitments. In fact, the grade that Arajamia gives the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul (eight out of ten) and the reason for that remarkable something, that Russia withdrew from Kiev as promised, is the implicit admission that Russia was not only willing to comply his word but had already begun to do it.

The trust argument is also two-way. The Minsk precedent indicates that it was Ukraine and not Russia that sabotaged the implementation of the agreements, which would have returned the territory of Donbass in exchange for political compensations that were perfectly acceptable but that Kiev rejected as unacceptable. Since the Russian invasion, Ukraine has not hidden the fact that for years it refused to comply with the commitments acquired with its signature in the Minsk agreements, something that was clearly repeated in the Istanbul process. In his account of the negotiation process, Arajamia describes Zelensky's mandate as the first objective of “making them feel like they can talk to us.” Hence, it was a moderate figure who led the delegation instead of, for example, Oleksiy Reznikov, an old acquaintance of the Minsk process, whose job was to delay the negotiations indefinitely. “The second objective,” adds Arajamia to relate something that was also evident at the time but continues to be ignored, “was to gain time. In reality we were the smoke screen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. We had long discussions with them, sometimes we extended the time when necessary and other times, on the contrary, we shortened it, giving them the feeling that they were winning the negotiations. That is, it is a tactical game, constantly consulting with the APU, what their plans are, where they are going and how.”

The Ukrainian rejection of the implementation of Minsk led to the chronicification of the state of war and the risk of an even broader conflict breaking out. Ukraine's breakdown of the Istanbul negotiations also consolidated the status quo, led to the escalation of the war that was observed throughout the summer and condemned the conflict to military means as the only viable solution. kyiv consciously delayed negotiations to favor the Ukrainian Armed Forces and to give its partners time to mobilize resources and begin the flow of weapons and financing for the war effort. The intervention of Boris Johnson - whose words not only reflect the will to fight to the last Ukrainian, but that the West would provide the weapons for this - was just one more factor in a decision in which Kiev and its partners agreed. Arajamia's words about the factors that led to the rejection of the peace agreement with Russia do not show an imposition from the West, but rather a conscious decision on the part of Ukraine and its partners to choose the military path in search of complete victory. For the Ukrainian Government, an important part of that idea of ​​victory has always been access to NATO, as important, if not more, than accession to the European Union.

An imposition from Boris Johnson was not necessary to convince Kiev not to give up that objective, although it was necessary for the West to promise to deliver the weapons necessary to continue fighting. These weapons remain the political basis of the Ukrainian state today, so the current words of Arajamia, who has remained silent for months, have a clear meaning: the West promised to support Ukraine in its fight to military victory and must continue to do so. .

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/27/28646/

Google Translator

Make no mistake, 'they axed for it.'

*********

What's happening in the Northeast Military District zone: chronicle for November 26
November 26, 2023
Rybar

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At night, the enemy carried out a massive drone attack on the rear cities of Russia. Air defense systems shot down over 20 enemy targets in Bryansk . Smolensk , Moscow , Kaluga and Tula regions : in Tula, as a result of the detonation of a drone, one resident received shrapnel wounds.

There were no significant changes at the front. On the southern flank of the Avdeevsky sector , after taking control of the Yasinovat industrial zone , the Russian Armed Forces are strengthening the front line of defense, preparing for the development of the offensive. The enemy tried to counterattack, but was repulsed.

In the Kherson direction in Krynki , the enemy continues to hold positions in the center of the village, despite opposition and attacks on the enemy’s rear on the right bank of the Dnieper . Another attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Rabotino in the Orekhovsky area was also thwarted .

In addition, for the first time since the beginning of the special operation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the Starobeshevskaya Thermal Power Plant at night , which led to the disconnection of a significant part of the consumers of the Donetsk People's Republic from electricity. At the moment, restoration work continues.

About a massive raid of Ukrainian drones on Russian rear regions

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Ukrainian formations carried out a massive drone raid on the rear areas of Russia. At the moment, more than 20 targets are known to have been shot down. Five UAVs were shot down in the sky over the Moscow region : air defense shot down targets in the area of ​​Naro - Fominsk , Podolsk , as well as in the Ramensky and Odintsovo urban districts. There is damage to the infrastructure, but no injuries have been reported. In the Kaluga region, targets were intercepted in the Dzerzhinsky and Zhukovsky districts , there were no wounded or damage.

In Tula, one of the drones crashed into a residential high-rise building: a man received shrapnel wounds and has now been taken to the hospital. The second UAV was shot down near the 1st South-Eastern residential complex ; the area is currently cordoned off. Another one was shot down by air defense crews in the sky over the region, and according to some reports, another one was suppressed by electronic warfare and fell within the city limits. In the Smolensk region, one UAV of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was suppressed on approach to the regional capital, but there were no casualties. In the Bryansk region, four drones were shot down on approach to the city and another one in the sky over the Karachevsky district : according to the authorities, there were no casualties or damage. According to Ukrainian media, this was a “retaliation strike” for the massive raid on the Kiev region by Russian kamikaze drones that had taken place a day earlier .

The situation on the front line and combat operations

In the Starobelsky direction in the Kupyansky sector , there are no significant changes: fighting continues on the outskirts of Sinkovka , the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred the 123rd TRO battalion from the rear to the front line. In addition, photographs of American Abrams tanks somewhere in this direction appeared online. Judging by the fact that the photographs were posted by Ukrainian media workers, this equipment has not yet been tested in battle. But, if this happens, then soon we should expect new pictures with the Abrams on fire.


In the Soledar direction south of Bakhmut, the Russian Armed Forces continue their offensive operation. According to some reports, it was possible to take several enemy strongholds on the outskirts of the village. At the same time, near Andreevka the enemy still holds strategic heights under his control.


In the Avdeevsky sector on the southern flank, the Russian Army, after occupying strategic heights in the Yasinovat industrial zone , is equipping positions. The enemy launched a series of local counterattacks, trying to restore lost positions, but was unsuccessful. On the northern flank, the Russian Armed Forces are expanding control along the railway towards Novokalinovo .


In the Orekhovsky sector, Ukrainian formations repeatedly attack the positions of Russian troops, but to no avail. Soldiers of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the Russian Armed Forces repelled another enemy attack towards Rabotino , eliminating several pieces of equipment.


In the Kherson direction , fighting continues in Krynki; the enemy holds the central part of the village. However, the Russian Armed Forces are conducting an active counter-battery fight and striking at the bases of motor boats and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, disrupting the enemy’s rotation plans.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas

]img]https://rybar.ru/wp-content/webp-expres ... 5.jpg.webp[/img]
Early in the morning, the enemy struck the Starobeshevo Thermal Power Plant , which caused a number of cities in the Donetsk People's Republic , including Donetsk , Makeevka , Gorlovka and Mariupol , to be de-energized. In addition, the civilian infrastructure of Yasinovataya , Donetsk , Gorlovka was also under fire throughout the day , and air defense was operating in the skies over Yasinuvata . In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired from the HIMARS MLRS at a paint and varnish coating plant in Makeyevka , where one person was injured.

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Ukrainian formations daily shell the left bank of the Kherson region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces fired at the residential buildings of Nova Kakhovka , Podstepne , Aleshek , Obryvki , Dnepryan and Krynok , firing several dozen shells. The enemy fired over 70 rounds of ammunition at Cairo and Gornostaevka , and also attacked populated areas with drones. In the Cossack Camps , one person received shrapnel wounds and was provided with medical care.

Political events
About the new rights of TCC in Ukraine

Territorial recruitment centers, whose employees periodically illegally detain men who are not too keen to go to the front, will finally receive long-awaited rights. Until the end of the year, TCC employees will be given the right to serve subpoenas in person, as well as record audio and video of the issuance of a subpoena to a mobilized person.

Polish "trade wars"

Polish truckers, dissatisfied with the benefits for Ukrainian carriers, continue to block about 3 thousand trucks from Ukraine on their part of the border. Today, the mayor of Lvov, Andrei Sadovoy , decided to address them , calling the organizers of the blockade “marginal” and calling on the Polish authorities to stop it as soon as possible.

However, although the problem is being discussed in the highest political circles, it is not yet too close to being resolved. The Ukrainian budget, meanwhile, is suffering losses, and some gas stations in the country are experiencing gas shortages.

Arestovich's opinion on the statements of David Arakhamia

Former adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine Aleksey Arestovich commented on the words of the head of the Servant of the People faction in the Verkhovna Rada, David Arakhamia . Let us recall that Arakhamia recently allegorically stated that the Ukrainian authorities were close to a peace agreement with Russia, but Boris Johnson (former British Prime Minister) insisted on the need to conduct military operations.

According to Arestovich, in the long term, such statements will strengthen anti-Western positions among the local population. And Western countries, in any case, will continue to maintain contacts with Russia, at a minimum, purchasing resources and conducting negotiations on security issues.

First discussions about Zaluzhny's departure

Known for her close relationship with the Office of the President of Ukraine, Verkhovna Rada MP Maryana Bezuglaya said that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny should resign as he has no further plans for the course of hostilities in 2024.

She was told about the absence of plans by allegedly unnamed military personnel in a private conversation. It seems that through Bezuglaya the OP is beginning to test the waters for the possible resignation of Zaluzhny, who has become inconvenient to the authorities in Kyiv.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

Google Translator

*******

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SITREP 11/25/23: Major Avdeevka Breakthroughs as NATO Plans Forever War

<snip>

Now let’s bring the view a little closer to developments in Ukraine.

It may sound counterintuitive for the U.S. to now want to freeze the Ukrainian conflict, given what we discussed above, but freezing it is precisely what can allow its continuation. That’s because in their eyes, freezing it is a temporary hiatus allowing the rearming and recharging of Ukraine for another prolonged round 2, then 3, and 4, etc. Not freezing it would allow Russia to win a major ‘decisive’ victory, that would end the conflict once and for all, with Russia totally controlling Ukraine’s territory.

Sure at that point they could fall back to the second echelon, as we discussed, activating Poland as the next combatant. But it’s also never a 100% reliable option; why blow your next, more uncertain trump card if you can continue milking the first one?

So what’s coming into focus now is that U.S. elites appear to be of the mind that if they can’t freeze the conflict, then at least let Europe fund and prolong it at their own expense, which achieves two important objectives:

Allows the U.S. ruling administration to get Ukraine “off the books” in terms of its increasingly poisoned optics and political anathema, for now—at least up until elections are over

Allows a somewhat acceptable scenario where Europe continues to bankrupt themselves—which makes them more pliant and dependent—while simultaneously bleeding Russia—a fairly feasible tradeoff as a compromise option

The problem is, the ruling elite of Ukraine have no choice but to double down because if the conflict is frozen, then much of their dirty laundry will come to light, including—most catastrophically for them—the scale of losses and destruction to Ukrainian society, something they’ll never live down. They’ll be torn to shreds, which includes Zelensky, and likely imprisoned if not worse. So they’re forced to take their bets with going ‘all the way’.

A ceasefire for Russia likewise has many dangers. For instance:

Elena Panina, director of the Institute for International Strategic Studies: “The decision will be made overnight”: in Kyiv, the forecast for Ukraine’s accession to NATO has been clarified.

The decision on Ukraine's membership in NATO will be made overnight - and by this time Kyiv will already be ready to join the alliance, said Olga Stefanishyna, Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration.

This statement should be taken extremely seriously.

The fact is that US President Biden made a similar statement during the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11-12, 2023. When asked by a journalist how long it would take the West to admit Ukraine into the alliance, he answered: “One hour and twenty minutes.”

The North Atlantic Alliance is simply waiting for the right moment. He is ready to use any freezing of the conflict with Russia or suspension of hostilities for Ukraine’s official entry into NATO. Accordingly, Russia must fully take this factor into account during the SVO. There can be no pauses - otherwise, later we will formally find ourselves in conflict with a NATO member country."


As outlined above, one danger is that Ukraine can be brought into NATO during a cessation of hostilities, which will immediately change the calculus and potentially checkmate Russia, though of course it would be a massive escalatory risk for the West as well.

Interestingly, Foreign Affairs released another article yesterday which even floats the idea that a ceasefire would be a “triumph” for some of those very reasons:

[i[]And a negotiated settlement would still be—relative to the West’s initial expectations—a Ukrainian triumph. As the political scientist Samuel Charap wrote in Foreign Affairs in July, a divided Ukraine that is “prosperous and democratic with a strong Western commitment to its security would represent a genuine strategic victory.”[/i]

I assume the line of thinking to that is, before the war began, the West didn’t have enough justification for the type of overt involvement they would have liked. But now that Putin “opened the can of worms” by invading, some in the West would be fine with a ceasefire because it would no longer look like the status quo of before. The West would now be able to fully overrun Ukraine with Western military assets, taking control entirely of their armed forces like never before, justifying it as acceptable due to Putin having already invaded.

In essence it would give them a sort of casus belli to turn Ukraine into a NATO outpost, fortress, and experimental weapons lab like never before.

But as we said before, Zelensky can’t stop now—he risks being pilloried and lynched in public for the devastation he wrought to no end. So now, Zelensky has made it official that this coming week he will finally address the elephant in the room and clarify the new mobilization procedures, which everyone has been awaiting.

(see Video at link)

There are all sorts of rumors as to what this could entail, from major new age expansions like the 17 to 70 year old recruitment some have talked about, to the announcement of stricter female mobilization, to other more plausible things like expansion of TCC commissar powers, which will give commissars more legal sanction to mobilize people forcefully.

I’m not sure how true this is exactly, but what I’ve read suggests that, despite much of the highly coercive recruitment methods we’ve seen in videos on the net, Ukrainian commissars are not actually legally allowed to utilize some of the extrajudicial methods currently utilized. And allegedly, in some cases actual police can be called to ‘shoo’ the coercive commissars away. In short, they appear to operate in a sort of legal ‘gray zone’ which is often merely suffered through by unwitting citizens. This extends to powers of police like forcibly stopping citizens’ cars on the road and detaining them, or barging into certain premises, especially private households. These are all areas commissars—as per this understanding—are not legally justified in violating, yet they have been doing so simply out of desperation to get their quotas, and it’s often been societally permitted just on account of no one wanting to rock the boat and be accused of sabotaging the war effort.

👆👉We urgently need meat to the front: Zelensky promises to accelerate mobilization, military commissars will be allowed to grab people on the street, check documents and serve summonses. Now only the police have this right.

▪️Zelensky has also already announced changes in the course of mobilization towards tightening the conscription.

▪️Secretary of the Rada Committee on National Security Roman Kostenko said:

“Now there are a lot of questions from the TCC (commissars) and from those citizens whom they are trying to mobilize. In fact, the TCC does not have any rights to stop a person, give him a summons, demand documents from him. The police sometimes distance themselves from this so as not to be at the center of a scandal, so as not to attract a person,” Kostenko said on Radio NV.

▪️According to him, such an innovation will appear in the bill, which will be developed by the end of the year. Previously, it was announced by the head of the Servant of the People faction, David Arakhamia.

▪️Also, military registration and enlistment office employees will be able to make audio and video recordings of their communications with people.


Hence rumor has it Zelensky’s next decree will actually legally expand those powers for commissars to be able to have full-on police powers in detaining people on the street, asking for paperwork and ID and various things of that nature.

"Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President is going to level the problem of shortage of weapons with mass mobilization. The Ukrainian Armed Forces spent too many resources on the Azov operation and now we need to strengthen mobilization so that in 2024 there will be reserves for a new counter-offensive."

Another rumor from Rezident_UA channel states that Zelensky plans to get his fill of fodder from a new mobilization and then throw Zaluzhny under the bus by blaming it all on him, in effect killing ‘two birds with one stone’—which would get rid of the albatross of Zaluzhny while washing Zelensky’s own hands of the blood and sin.

The Ukrainian TG channel "Resident" writes:

“Our source in the OP said that the President's Office wants to use the hatred of Ukrainians for the TCC against Zaluzhny, who personifies the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which means that all excesses in mobilization are his responsibility. Bankova is preparing a number of information campaigns that are supposed to discredit the commander-in-chief and then remove him "

They say that if you keep throwing people's anger at each other, one day it will catch up with everyone together. So eat each other up, be more active⚡️⚡️⚡️


In general, all the theses we’ve read about Ukraine going into a defensive posture recently appear to be proving true. Zelensky’s strategy seems to be “preservation mode” for now, with only some choice, token offensive action in areas where opportunity may present itself.

This has been borne out by reports from the frontline that confirm Ukraine’s usage of artillery, drones, etc., has dropped precipitously. Correspondents on the Russian frontline have outright said it looks like Ukraine is conserving ammo heavily right now. A video from two days ago shows a Russian soldier on the Avdeevka front confirming this:

(see Video at link)

However, like I said before, I think Ukraine still has a lot of materiel for another push in the future but no real offensive potential. There’s almost no danger of breakthrough on any front any longer.

The entire Kherson front, for instance, is a hoax on the Ukrainian side. There is zero chance for substantive breakthroughs or real “bridgeheads” there as logistics are simply not feasible. UA supporters continue to use a variety of outright hoaxes and psyops to try to scare or demoralize Russian troops, like the publication of an alert two weeks ago which had claimed Russian forces are getting ready to do a major withdrawal. The Russian MOD quickly dismissed it as a provocation; the news was actually on the exact one year anniversary of the Kherson pullback of 2022, and it appeared someone had hacked the Russian outlets to release the boilerplate writeup for that pullback—either that or some internal provocation.

But simply put, the AFU is doing nothing more than dying en masse in Khrynki. That’s not to say Russian forces aren’t having some deep issues with various coordination and occasional flubs leading to spikes in troop deaths, but the situation is fully under control and Ukraine lacks the ability to even get light armor across, apart from the one BMP and Humvee they managed to float across which were quickly destroyed a week or two ago. Rumor has it the average AFU lifespan is under two days on the left bank “bridgehead”.

In fact, that theater has become a major case of ‘sunk cost fallacy’ of the military variety for Ukraine. They’ve now hyped it up as such an illusion that to admit defeat and simply withdraw would be a major blow to their prestige and morale. So at this point, despite suffering catastrophic losses, they are forced to ‘keep up appearances’ by feeding an endless train of meat into the grinder, as victims of their own overspun propaganda.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... akthroughs

(Much more, do go to link.)

********

Someone has to pay reparations
November 27, 14:35

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Ukraine will not sign a peace agreement with the Russian Federation without reparations.
Ukraine will never agree to this. And the world will not agree, because someone must pay these reparations. If not Russia, then who?
(c) Deputy Minister of Justice of Ukraine Irina Mudra

This means that in the coming year, several hundred thousand more residents of the remnants of Ukraine will die, who will be forced to be driven to the front for slaughter. And then another year... And another year... Nobody will pay anything to Ukraine. And no one will restore Ukraine either (well, except for the part that will be part of Russia).

"Let's just fight" (c) Boris Johnson

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8791253.html

Google TRanslator

******

The EU’s Latest Anti-Russian Sanctions Plan Would Kill Its Own Tech Companies’ Competitiveness

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ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 27, 2023

Whoever does business with those EU tech companies would essentially be volunteering to let the bloc spy on their activities in order to monitor extraterritorial compliance with its sanctions.

Bloomberg reported on Saturday that “Some EU Nations Push to Weaken Russia Sanctions Enforcement Plan”. Brussels proposed forcing companies outside the bloc who purchase “high-priority items” like semiconductors to first deposit a sum into an escrow account. If they’re alleged to have resold these items to Russia, then they’ll lose their contract and at least half of their deposited money would go to Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, “diplomatic envoys from a group of big member states” aren’t happy.

They’re concerned that this proposal is unworkable and would amount to killing the competitiveness of the EU’s own tech companies since customers might scoff at having to jump through all these hoops and could prefer to do no-strings-attached deals with China instead. Their worries are sensible too since whoever does business with those EU tech companies would essentially be volunteering to let the bloc spy on their activities in order to monitor extraterritorial compliance with its sanctions.

Few anywhere in the world would feel comfortable with those terms, let alone the scenario of losing the amount they’d be forced to deposit in order to do business with those companies if they’re simply accused of violating the sanctions without even going to court over this first, which can’t be ruled out. It therefore makes sense to “to narrow the scope of the potential clauses and the list of goods that would be covered by the proposed measure” like Bloomberg reported that those envoys want to do.

The Baltics and others that the outlet claimed are in support of retaining the original terms don’t stand to lose the lucrative market share that the “big member states” do since they don’t build semiconductors and other “high-priority items”. Their interests are solely to restrict Russia’s access to them at all costs, including self-inflicted ones that risk ceding the bloc’s market share to China. Suffice to say, only ideologues would “cut off their nose to spite their face”, so to speak.

To be sure, the anti-Russian sanctions themselves amounted to precisely such a self-destructive policy, but the bloc’s ideologues are less in vogue nowadays after it became impossible to deny that the Russian economy is actually growing unlike many EU members’. Accordingly, there’s a credible chance that the “big member states” might successfully push through their reportedly proposed reforms, but that also can’t be taken for granted since the ideologues still hold some sway over influential policymaking circles.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-eus- ... -sanctions
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Nov 28, 2023 12:13 am

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Coup Poker: Ukraine’s Deteriorating Civil-Military Relations
by GORDONHAHN
November 24, 2023

Ukraine’s civil-military relations continue to polarize and deteriorate as Kiev moves ever closer to defeat in the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War. As the position of Kiev’s armed forces on the front deteriorated throughout this year, so did Ukrainian civil-military relations, devolving from tense to primarily conflictual, even ‘pre-coup.’ Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy’s power was bound to decline as it became more obvious to those at home and abroad who did not understand from the outset that Ukraine cannot win and will certainly lose the war in lieu of a direct NATO military intervention. The consequences of a vacuum in power and authority on the background of defeat in war can bring coups, chaos, civil war, and state collapse (“Maidan Meltdown, Ukrainian Chaos, and a Russian Quagmire?,” Russian and Eurasian Politics, 15 August 2023, https://gordonhahn.com/2023/08/15/maida ... -quagmire/). As Ukraine’s full defeat nears and Zelenskiy’s position weakens, the most likely players to seize power from Zelenskiy in lieu of presidential elections will be armed ones. This means the numerous, well-armed ultranationalist and neofascist elements in Ukraine’s army and society and/or the professional military’s leadership, as has been noted previously (https://gordonhahn.com/2022/09/08/zelen ... zaluzhnyi/; https://gordonhahn.com/2023/08/15/maida ... -quagmire/ and (https://gordonhahn.com/2022/07/29/regim ... y-in-kiev/). As has been the case with many of the schisms that have emerged in Ukrainian society over the last few decades, US involvement is contributing to growing divisions and tensions with the Ukrainian state, regime, and society. Most notably, the US insistence on the failed counteroffensive has widened the divide between Zelenskiy and some of his top generals, most notably Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valeriy Zalyuzhniy (https://gordonhahn.com/2022/09/08/zelen ... zaluzhnyi/). This article reviews these developments.

<snip>

Maidan Meltdown

The likelihood that some among the professional military would undertake a coup attempt against Zelenskiy would increase significantly if the coup plotters were able to find support both in the US and within Ukrainian society and Zelenskiy’s own inner circle. One of the fundamental pillars of Zelenskiy’s power at home was his international cache`. That is gone now with the counteroffensive’s failure and growing reports of corruption and division in Kiev. This is true even with the US, Ukraine’s lead backer. As Time’s October expose` on Zelenskiy’s degradation noted, during his September DC trip “Congressional leaders declined to let Zelensky deliver a public address on Capitol Hill. His aides tried to arrange an in-person appearance for him on Fox News and an interview with Oprah Winfrey. Neither one came through” (https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volody ... interview/). The precipitous and catastrophic decline in support for Zelenskiy is translating into declining US and other Western governments’ support for Ukraine (and vice versa) and is reflected in the decreasing US military and financial aide packages and in warnings that Western governments have reached the bottom of the barrel. Poland has all but abandoned Ukraine. Slovakia and, so it appears, the Netherlands are following suit. With Hungary’s opposition to Ukraine’s continuation of the war, the arc of NATO hawks in eastern Europe is being broken. There are rumors in former US intelligence circles that the US is preparing to dump Zelenskiy if he continues to refuse to negotiate with Moscow by next year. Ukraine’s and Zelenskiy’s international position further tanked on October 7th when Hamas carried out a horrendous terroristic attack provoking an equally if not more horrendous Israeli attack on Gaza, producing some 14,000 civilian deaths as of writing and risking a regional even world war. Thus, Ukraine funding has lost even more support in the US Congress and most of its previous level of US assistance and has almost completely disappeared from US media headlines. This will make the situation at the front even worse for Kiev and thus place Zelenskiy between two flames: demands that he negotiate with Putin and threats coming from ultranationalist and neofascist elements in society and the army that if he does, then he ought to be overthrown or worse.

Most propitious for support of any military coup are growing signs of division within Zelenskiy’s own camp. The Time article revealed that some high-ranking officials in the OP regard Zelenskiy with a mounting degree of disrespect, describing him as “delusional”: “’He deludes himself,’ one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. ‘We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.’” “Zelensky’s stubbornness, some of his aides say, has hurt their team’s efforts to come up with a new strategy, a new message. As they have debated the future of the war, one issue has remained taboo: the possibility of negotiating a peace deal with the Russians” (https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volody ... interview/).

At home the Time article provoked stormy discussion and outrage both in society and the establishment, as one newspaper put it. Perhaps most importantly it sparked questions within the OP and Ukrainian elite regarding who might have been the author’s sources and why they decided to undermine Zelenskiy and the country so openly. Secretary of Ukraine’s powerful Defense and Security Council, Oleksiy Danilov, also condemned the sources who spoke to Time and called for their unmasking and punishment (https://gordonua.com/news/war/danilov-o ... 86383.html). The article was one more drop in the bucket of internal fractiousness soon to spill over into open confrontation (https://strana.news/articles/analysis/4 ... lasti.html). Strana.ua noted the “outrageous” case of Ukrainian commanders refusing Zelenskiy’s order to move on Gorlivka (https://strana.news/news/449308-problem ... a-smi.html).

Regarding society, the IRI public opinion survey noted above does not demonstrate only the military’s greater and more durable popularity among Ukrainians. It also registers a significant drop in support for Zelenskiy by September compared with 17 months earlier. In April 2022, 74 percent absolutely approved of his activity, 20 percent mostly approved, 3 percent mostly disapproved, and 2 percent absolutely disapproved. In February 2023, 58 percent absolutely approved of his activity, 33 percent mostly approved, 4 percent mostly disapproved, and 3 percent absolutely disapproved. By September 2023, 42 percent absolutely approved of his activity, 40 percent mostly approved, 9 percent mostly disapproved, and 7 percent absolutely disapproved (https://iri.org.ua/sites/default/files/ ... public.pdf, p. 42). Crucially, this survey was conducted before the failure of the counteroffensive became clear even in Ukraine, Washington, and NATO and before civili-military and Zelenskiy-Zalyuzhniy’s relations became openly conflictual. Zelenskiy’s Maidan regime is becoming highly nervous. In October, as if to assure itself, the OP reportedly conducted and apparently leaked the results of an internal poll that supposedly found that the majority of Ukrainians blamed Zalyuzhniy rather than Zelenskiy for the summer counteroffensive’s failure. But it also concluded that an atmosphere was being created by social web and Telegram channels, which nurture the alternative view that Zelenskiy is responsible for the failures while the military command is responsible for any successes (https://t.me/rezident_ua/19945).

Military- or Palace-Led Coup: On the Brink?

In the Time expose`, its author conjectured that the consequence of the Zelenskiy-Zalyuzhniy disagreements may be the resignation by winter of a certain top commander of Ukraine, marking clear evidence of the aggravation of the “OP – military” line (https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volody ... interview/). Indeed, matters began to look increasingly like a pre-coup situation in the following days and weeks. The day after the Time publication Gen. Zalyuzhniy gave an interview to The Economist linked to a paper he had written, published on Nov 1st, in which he outlined his view that the war had reached a “stalemate” and “positional crisis”, fully contradicting Zelenskiy’s untiring efforts to ‘put lipstick on a pig’ (https://infographics.economist.com/2023 ... ERSION.pdf, p. 2). In his paper, Zalyuzhnyi emphasized that this positional crisis favors Russia: “(T)he prolongation of a war, as a rule, in most cases, is beneficial to one of the parties to the conflict. In our particular case, it is the russian federation (Zaluzhniy repeatedly referenced Russia without capital lettering), as it gives it the opportunity to reconstitute and build up its military power” (https://infographics.economist.com/2023 ... ERSION.pdf, p. 1). He warned that prolongation of this positional war “carries significant risks for both the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the state as a whole” (https://infographics.economist.com/2023 ... ERSION.pdf, p. 9). Zalyuzhniy’s claim of a stalemate in the war and the poor prospects for Ukraine’s army relative to Russia’s forces cannot but send a shock wave through Ukraine’s body politic no less powerful than that imparted by the Time expose` and perhaps rally opposition figures to Zalyuzhniy’s side (For example, see banned opposition journalist and party leader Anatoliy Shariy’s video at www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzAj49v37Vk&ab_ ... 0%B8%D0%B9); see also https://t.me/stranaua/130031). The day after Zalyuzhniy’s article appeared on the Internet, Zelenskiy criticized his top commander’s view that the war had reached a stalemate in an unprecedented display of division of disparate views from the civilian and military leaderships. Zelenskiy’s top foreign affairs adviser went further, saying Zaluzhniy’s remarks had been “very strange” and could benefit Russia in the psychological informational war so central to the Zelenskiy team’s approach to governing (www.nytimes.com/2023/11/04/world/europe ... uzhny.html). This statement approached an accusation of treason. In the Ukrainian context of war, collusion fears, and frequent accusations of and legislation regarding collaboration and treason, getting close to this is a very risky proposition for both sides in the growing intra-Ukrainian struggle.

On November 3rd, two days after Zalyuzhniy’s piece was published, Zelensky’s office removed from his post a Zalyuzhniy deputy, Gen. Viktor Khorenko, who headed Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SSO), and did so without consulting with Zalyuzhniy. Khorenko acknowledged there had been differences of opinion between him and the OP but said he did not know why he had been dismissed and only heard about it through media (https://strana.news/news/449677-chto-iz ... renko.html). In response to Khorenko’s rude removal, a video was published apparently by the SSO which advanced “seven theses of Khorenko” and reflected SSO dissatisfaction with Khorenko’s departure. Among the theses were: troops are not commanded from offices, command of forces should be carried out only by those who have killed someone (presumably in battle), and Khorenko “does not play politics” (https://t.me/stranaua/130304). This was a somewhat classic statement of the corporate nature of the military profession and of the divide that exists between the civilian and military, even between ‘armchair’ and combat officers. One would not be judged hasty if one concluded that this seemed to be a rebuke of, even threat against Zelenskiy. These tensions produced churning rumors in Ukrainian and Western media about civil-military and Zelenskiy-Zalyuzhniy tensions (https://ctrana.news/news/449725-itohi-6 ... raine.html).

All this persuaded the already embattled Ukrainian president to announce on November 6th that Kiev would not hold the presidential election scheduled for March 2024. Discussions of elections were “utterly irresponsible” during wartime, Zelenskiy said. The country is under martial law, and with thousands of soldiers at the front and millions of Ukrainians displaced at home and abroad by the war holding a fair election would be impossible, he stated (www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelensky-r ... r-AA1jwJcM). But more fundamentally, Zelenskiy has rejected elections not so much because they are impractical to hold in a war-torn country but because he has isolated himself from the rest of the polity — including Zalyuzhniy, Poroshenko, Klichko, much of the military and civilian apparatus, even many in his administration – and he now is losing popular approval. This decision, requiring a sidelining of pluralism, and the growing schisms with the military prompted Zelenskiy to call for unity and put an end to the mutual recriminations and factionalism on November 7th (www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-z ... 023-11-06/).

But civil-military matters deteriorated yet further when on the same day that Zelenskiy cancelled the presidential election, one of Zalyuzhniy’s top aides, Col. Gennadi Chastyakov, was apparently assassinated by the explosion of a hand grenade packaged as a gift he received at his home on his birthday. Members of former president Poroshenko’s party immediately cast doubt on the official version of Chastyakov’s death as an accident and connected it with the Zelenskiy-Zalyuzhniy tensions (https://strana.news/news/449870-itohi-6 ... vojny.html). Whether the incident was an assassination or an accident for now remains of limited significance. Either way, this has raised the temperature of civil-military and Zelsnkiy-Zalyuzhniy relations, since many inside and outside Ukraine perceive it as an assassination attempt. Some even see it as one perpetrated by allies of Zelenskiy, if not ordered by Zelenskiy himself.

With the southern Donetsk town of Avdiivka in a similar situation as Bakhmut before the fall, surrounded and seeing high numbers of Ukrainian (and Russian) casualties, it is certain that similar disagreements are occurring between civilian and military officials, between Zelenskiy and Zalyuzhni over whether to stand and defend or withdraw and save human and material resources, driving tensions upward. Thus, tensions continued to mount through the rest of November, as can be seen if we read between the lines of events.

On the 11th of November, the Washington Post published another article intended to muddy the waters surrounding the 2022, likely US attack on the Nord Stream pipeline by attributing it to Ukraine. This time, however, instead of whitewashing the entire Ukrainian leadership by pointing to some ‘pro-Ukrainian group’ as the perpetrator, it identified as the Nord Stream attack’s “coordinator” an imprisoned Ukrainian military officer who has extremely antagonistic relations with Zelenskiy’s office for his alleged bungling of the 2019 Ukrainian special operation to intercept Wagner fighters in Belarus. Furthermore, the Post fingered Zalyuzhnyi by conjecturing that all the evidence points to him as the mastermind of the project (www.washingtonpost.com/national-securit ... hervinsky/). It cannot be excluded that this was a joint CIA-Ukrainian disinformation operation, with the Kievans producing the alleged Nord Stream ‘coordinator.’ In terms of the Western position towards the Ukrainian president and general, it is hard to determine whether the article – likely planted by US intelligence – was an effort to scapegoat or credit Zalyuzhnyi, but it certainly could polarize their already tense relations. On the same day the Post article appeared former commander of the defense of Mikolaev, Gen.-Col. Dmitrii Marchenko supported the idea of Zalyuzhnyi running for president, saying he gladly would join his political team. The statement was made on Poroshenko-controlled Channel 5 (https://strana.news/news/450289-itohi-6 ... raine.html). On November 19th Zelenskiy released Zalyuzhniy ally, Tatyana Ostashchenko, as head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Medical Services. Zelenskiy appears to be depopulating the Zalyuzhniy patronage clan from positions of power perhaps in order to limit the potential for a military coup or other means for opposing Zelenskiy’s clan.

Zelenskiy’s weakening hand abroad is having profound domestic political implications, particularly for civil-military relations. It is no accident that the Zelenskiy-Zalyuzhniy tensions have intensified, as the West begins to throw Kiev under the bus. Moreover, the US and Europeans reportedly are pressuring Zelenskiy now to negotiate with Putin (www.nbcnews.com/news/world/us-european- ... rcna123628). Zelenskiy is being placed between two flames, facing the potential of a coup from two positions on the war. One front would be composed of those who support negotiations to save Ukraine; a second would be those who oppose talks with the Russian at any cost. The former consists of the ultra-patriotic, ultranationalist and neofascist military and other elements, who will persist in rejecting compromise with ‘f…… terrorist Putin’, as Zelenskiy referred to the Russian president in a NBC interview on November 5th. The latter is composed of those who understand that to salvage Ukrainian statehood requires a ceasefire, if not full peace, and a compromise at least on NATO membership and already Russia-annexed territories. In other words, Zelenskiy could already be damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t negotiate with Putin. Another motivation to undertake a coup could be Zelenskiy’s psychological ‘delusional’ decay affecting his competence and/or the collapse of the military at the front or social institutions in the rear bringing angry soldiers back to Kiev and mixing with disenchanted elements in society.

Ukraine’s ultra-nationalists and neo-fascists almost unanimously will reject any talk of peace negotiations with Russia as nothing less than capitulation and treason and will be highly motivated to attempt another coup like Maidan or go underground and fight against the ‘regime of traitors and Putin puppets.’ Some ultras and neo-fascists would certainly support a coup undertaken by military commanders perhaps pursuing Zelenskiy’s removal for reasons other than any decision of his to negotiate or continue to refuse to negotiate with Putin. Many in the military are ultra-nationalists and neo-fascists, even the top command. Zalyuzhniy appointed neofascist Right Sector founder Dmitro Yarosh as an advisor and has posed for photographs in his office revealing a portrait of Stepan Bandera on the wall behind his desk.

Another key element in any decision to undertake a military or palace coup would be the cover, if not direct participation of Ukraine’s intelligence services. The SBU is headed by Vasyl Maslyuk, who is not a close associate of Zelenskiy, who has been forced to fire SBU officials before, as noted above. The SBU is corrupt in numerous ways and has tended to play its own political game, for example, by supporting radical ultranationalist and neofascist elements. Another secret service pillar that could expose, support, or stand idly by a coup plot is the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR), Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, headed by the hubristic, daring, and brash young General Kyrylo Budanov. One observer has argued that of there is a coup threat against Zelenskiy on the horizon, it comes from Budanov (https://asiatimes.com/2023/11/zelensky- ... -generals/). One might add that Khorenko, the Zalyuzhniy deputy recently fired so ignominiously, is another candidate to participate, even lead a coup attemot. He was transferred to the GUR, creating a connection between Zalyuzhniy and Budanov (https://24tv.ua/ru/horenko-uznal-o-svoe ... l_n2425155). Budanov would not be able to carry out any coup without the military, and Zalyuzhniy’s popularity far outstrips any Budanov might have. But Budanov’s support of or passivity during any coup attempt will be important for its success. At least one of the security services, the SBU or GUR, would also have to participate and might even lead a plot.

There are several scenarios for a coup involving military elements: an outright military coup, military-backed palace coup, a military-backed oligarch-sponored Maidan 2.0. As I have noted previously, an alliance with civilian elements could be especially powerful, with former president Poroshenko, a bitter opponent of Zelenskiy, and/or Kiev mayor Klichko siding with the siloviki in a military or military-backed palace coup. As I noted in 2022:

“Poroshenko could be a particularly dangerous opponent, cover for a military leadership. He had good relations with Biden when the latter was US vice president and led Obama’s Ukraine policy and is backed into a corner having been indicted and forced to flee abroad. His supporters remain in country, and Zelenskiy’s thin support and purge of the political landscape has created a plethora of enemies, whom Poroshenko can win over or buy off. An exacerbated Zelenskiy-Poroshenko conflict could draw in General Zalyuzhniy. He has frequent contacts with Washington and Brussels who some day might tire of Zelenskiy as the war drags on. All this becomes a likely explosive dynamic, if the situation at the front continues to deteriorate for Ukraine” (https://gordonhahn.com/2022/07/29/regim ... y-in-kiev/).

Another military-related scenario could be a revolt generated ‘from below’ but perhaps coopted by officers and/or oligarchs. In this scenario rank-and-file soldiers, veterans, and low- and mid-level commanders return from the front by way of being wounded, desertion, or front collapse organize demonstrations and a street revolt perhaps in league with ultra-nationalists or neo-fascists, seeking to complete Maidan with a nationalist revolution or Maidan 2.0.

There is also the possibility of a direct Western intervention in support of a coup plot. Zalyuznyi, Poroshenko, and Klichko each have their own backers in the West. Putin said in a recent comment: “Why do Americans try to fight this corruption [in Ukraine] but nothing works? I do not think it will work. They are now planning a change of elites – both economic and political one” (my emphasis) (http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/72672). Does Putin know something we don’t? Is a US-backed coup in the works? Not quite yet, I would argue.

Of course, not every regime change scenario is necessarily military-oriented, each realistic one is certain to be war-driven and will have to have some military or at least armed support. Given the possibility of economic breakdown and the collapse of Ukraine’s energy grid likely to come under more intensive Russian attack this winter than last, living conditions could become so unbearable that in combination with disaster at the front a popular revolt arises. Zelenskiy himself recently said that any substantial cut off in Western financial aid could make it impossible for Ukraine to support social services and the war effort simultaneously, and this is true given the West is financing almost if not all of Ukraine’s state budget.

Conlcusion

Existentialist war dangers for Ukraine are intensifying the politicization of the military and exacerbating civil-military relations – a precondition for a military or palace coup supported by the military. An alliance of Ukrainian opposition elements with any military opposition –particularly if it includes the neofascist element in society and the military — can pose a grave threat to Zelenskiy’s regime. Again as I wrote in 2022:

“Add into this mix the pro-Russian factor (in the broad sense that encompasses pro-Russian language sentiment, Russian ethnic claims to a right to live in and shape Ukraine, as well as pro-Russia sentiment), invigorated by the arrest of the pro-Russian Opposition Bloc leader Viktor Medvedchuk…Then mix in the neofascists’ separate game of national revolution and their anger over the death and capture of the core of the neofascist Azov Battalion and continuing battlefield losses in general. Arestovich alluded consciously or unconsciously to this neofascist revolutionary threat, when he noted in May the “not so clever narrative: ‘heroes in the battlefield against traitors in the Office (of the President) and fat, dense generals in the staffs’” (https://strana.news/articles/390297-ukr ... rainy.html).

“…A freezing, hungry nation losing a war will be inclined to blame Zelenskiy and the ‘democratic’ Maidan regime and to follow less than desirable leaders. They will susceptible to demagogues, and Ukraine’s all too numerous neo-fascists could fit the bill. The latter are now even better-armed than they were before the war and are praised at home and in the West as heroes who defended Azovstal, Mariupol, Kiev, and Kharkiv. The Ukrainian Volunteer Army of Ukraine’s neofascist Right Sector (the former commanded and the latter founded by advisor to Zalyuzhniy, Dmitro Yarosh), the National Corps (led by founder of Azov, the neofascist Andriy Biletskiy), and other ultranationalist and neofascist groups continue to sacrifice themselves at the front in sharp contrast to those sipping coffee in Kiev and doing photo shoots in glossy Western magazines for women, as the Zelenskiys (have).

“There is significant evidence that the Russo-Ukrainian war is destabilizing the hybrid republican-oligarchic-ultranationalist Maidan regime–one riven by political, ideological, and oligarchic factionalism from the start. Below the apex of the Maidan’s quasi-republican regime headed by a thinly popular frontman lurks malign forces of oligarchic corruption and criminality and of radical nationalism and neofascism. The war temporarily papered over the ruling groups’ internal divisions, uniting them despite their multifarious interests, goals, and conflicts. However, over time the war and slow-moving rout of the Ukrainian military will wear away the thin coat of plaster uniting these groups in their fight against the Russians. At the same time, corruption, criminality, and multi-nationality in Ukraine make the Maidan regime susceptible to infiltration by the Russian state. Moreover, the war along with limited commitment to republican government within the Ukrainian elite are exacerbating the country’s conflictive environment and political culture. Being comprised of competing and increasingly violent oligarchic and ultranationalist clans, Ukrainian culture will be increasingly likely to yield growing intra-national violence and political upheaval. This trend will intensify with particular vigor if or when the war becomes clearly lost and the West begins to abandon the Ukrainian cause or desperately attempt to salvage it through a decisive political intervention such as a coup. Numerous coup or revolutionary scenarios are now part of the picture, and one should be prepared for such contingencies.

“(t)here is the real risk of a repeat of the country’s collapse through coup or revolution into warring factions as occurred post-1917. In this case, regions could devolve to the control of modern warlords representing these various trends backed by oligarch and various interested outside parties” (https://gordonhahn.com/2022/07/29/regim ... y-in-kiev/).

There is no guarantee that the military will retain its unity in any coup. Already challenged in its south and east by its ‘stateness’ problem of pro-Russian separatism and allegiance to Moscow among ethnic Russians and ethnically mixed and Soviet nostalgic russophones, Ukraine’s pre-war weak state is already threatening to become a failed one during or after the war. A coup is likely to deepen divisions within Kiev and the rest of what remains of Ukraine, provoking perhaps Ukrainian separatism, regional warlords, and mutually antagonistic partisan armies. This disastrous outcome for both Europe and Russia could occur on the road to or in the wake of defeat and as a result of defeat on the battlefield or by the nature of the post-war peace settlement.

https://gordonhahn.com/2023/11/24/coup- ... relations/

(Much more at link.)

*******

Ukraine SitRep: High Losses, Political Infighting, Blocked Borders
How many losses did the Ukrainian army have in its war against Russia.

We, so far, did not have any answer to that. The Ukrainian military has given no realistic account of its own losses while its claims of Russian losses are obviously exaggerated.

The Russia military is likewise giving no numbers for its own losses. But its daily reports give estimates of Ukrainian ones. These are currently around 650 per day plus/minus 200 depending on the intensity of the fighting.

Some western observers, foremost retired Colonel Macgregor, say that Ukraine's unrecoverable losses have exceeded 400,000 men. But he does not name his sources.

Now a new chapter in the war between the Ukrainian president Zelenski and the Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian army, General Zaluzny, may have given us an answer. Yesterday this news item found its way to the Strana news site (machine translation):

Zaluzhny didn't provide the plan of war-2024 and has to leave-the people's Deputy from "Servants of the people"

The commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, does not have a war plan for 2024, and therefore must resign.
This was stated by Deputy head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defense, MP from Servant of the People Mariana Bezuglaya on her Facebook page, referring to a "non-public discussion" with the military.

"Yes, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could not provide a plan for 2024. Neither big nor small, neither asymmetrical nor symmetrical. The military simply said that they need to take at least 20 thousand citizens a month, " she writes.


Zaluzny has no plans for 2024 because there is nothing he can do about the upcoming defeat of the Ukrainian army.

Every time he urges to stop defending positions that can not be held, like Bakhmut and Avdeevka, the political leadership tells him use all reserves and to keep holding. Every time he urges to build strong defense lines and to retreat to them he gets overruled. There is thereby nothing, except one number, that he can plan for.

That number is the one of the irretrievable losses of the Ukrainian army is experiencing. Zaluzny needs 20,000 new men per month to replace the losses and to keep his army going.

Assuming that the number is an average estimate we can calculate that 20 months of war have cost the Ukraine some 660 losses per day for a total of some 400,000. Irretrievable losses are not only dead (KIA), missed in action (MIA), or soldiers who preferred to become prisoners of war of the Russian army (POWs). They also include the severally wounded people who will be unable to come back onto the battle field.

These numbers seem high but we continue to see more and more reports that point to extremely high losses:

Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski - 0:35 UTC · Nov 27, 2023
Adviser of Zelenskyy: There is now "terrible shortage" of artillery shells & "huge shortage" of mines and military personnel on frontline. He heard "scary numbers" that average age in some brigades is 54 & that 3 people remain in some companies out of 110 at start of the war. https://youtu.be/MqRNWdqzF7E?si=6EnJEa25zcK-6p-4&t=196


Storming Russian ditches when one's rare troops have an average(!) age of 54 is impossible.

There have been other report which, similar to the one above, speak of the heavy depletion of Ukrainian units:

Kotsyurba and Lysenko’s company began the summer with 120 men. It’s now down to around 20, including replacements. The rest are dead, wounded or have been transferred away from assault duties. The new faces are mostly over 40 years old, some in poor health.

That is no longer an army but a Volkssturm like forces which enlists grandpas and kids to do the fighting.

In response to the threat of firing Zaluzny some activists immediately threatened a coup (machine translation):

A well-known activist close to Western structures, the founder of the StateWatch organization, Alexander Lemenov, threatened Vladimir Zelensky with a military coup.
He wrote about this on Facebook.

"What can we say about this style of communication? I don't have enough words to describe... they'll play out. We will lose more territory. But not all, far from all. And in Kiev, the government will really change, but not to the Russian one, but to the military one.


Zelenski was thus forced to intervene. He had to disavow the comments by the parliamentarian (machine translation):

The President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky disowned the statements of Maryana Bezuglaya , who made accusations against the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, and condemned her statements.
The corresponding video message was published by the presidential representative in the Verkhovna Rada, Fyodor Venislavsky.

"Mariana Bezuglaya's appointment to the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defense may threaten the national security of Ukraine," Venislavsky said.

Meanwhile, Bezuglaya continues to bend her line.

She posted on Facebook a cartoon of a military man who swears that he doesn't know if there is an "offensive plan". She accompanied the picture with the following caption: "When the mines were "discovered" or "go, there are only a couple of p#dors"(c). The military sent them from the brigades now."

Probably, in this way, she wanted to express the idea that the Ukrainian command failed to correctly assess the enemy's forces and the difficulties that the APU will face during the offensive.


Unless the Pentagon and the Biden administration intervene Zelenski will fire Zaluzny within the next few weeks.

British 'experts' continue to push the Ukrainian army into conscripting younger men (machine translation):

The Armed Forces of Ukraine need younger soldiers, because the current average age of the military is too high.
This is stated by Western military experts on the pages of the Financial Times newspaper.

According to experts, this is due to the fact that "the conflict has turned into small infantry battles on foot in trench systems," which require better physical fitness. At the same time, the average age of Ukrainian men fighting at the front and undergoing training in the West is 30-40 years.

Senior Research Fellow, Royal Joint Forces Institute Jack Watlin believes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine this year mobilized "disproportionately many older men," but now they need young people with greater endurance.

At the same time Director of the Polish analytical center Rochan Consulting Konrad Muzyka says that Ukraine cannot wage a war of attrition with the Russian Federation, since the Russian Federation has more equipment and soldiers. Kiev needs more prepared and trained troops.


Earlier the former British Defense Minister Ben Wallace had told Ukraine to draft younger soldiers.

But all these 'experts' ignore the severe problems with Ukraine's population 'pyramid':

Image

The 20 to 30 year old men they want to draft are simply not there to be recruited in any decisive numbers.

There are also other issues that currently hamper the Ukrainian military. For more than two weeks Polish truckers, who previously had the dominant role in the European freight business, are blocking the country's borders with Ukraine. Thousands of trucks are stuck on each side with waiting times that are now exceeding two weeks.

That is because the EU gave the non-member Ukraine the privilege of doing business in Europe without having to adhere to its rules. The Ukrainians, with less costs, thus took over the Polish business.

The blockade of the border affects military as well as humanitarian goods. Soon the Ukrainian military will be starving of everything it needs for the war.

It's not only the truckers in Poland who are very nervous about a potential Ukrainian membership in the EU:

Polish farmers on Thursday blocked the Medyka border checkpoint with Ukraine, demanding subsidies on wheat and state-backed loans amid an influx of Ukrainian grain, Polish media reported.
Protesters said they would block trucks from reaching the checkpoint between 9 a.m. and 8 p.m. every day until Sunday, the IAR news agency reported.

The farmers want the government to subsidise the prices of wheat, extend state-backed loans due to the influx of grain from Ukraine, and keep the farm tax rates unchanged, according to news outlets.

On November 6, Polish truck drivers launched a blockade of the Hrebenne, Dorohusk and Korczowa checkpoints, demanding that the European Union reinstate permits for Ukrainian transport companies entering the bloc.

On Thursday, Polish transport companies announced that the protest at the Dorohusk checkpoint would be extended until February 1, Ukraine's Ukrinform news agency reported.
...
The Polish protests coincide with concerns in Ukraine that the European Union may not agree next month to launch formal accession talks for it to join the 27-member bloc, a key objective for Kyiv, according to the Reuters news agency.

It reported that prolonged protests and the resulting disruption to trade could affect Ukraine's fragile, wartime economy.

The price of motor vehicle gas (LPG), which is widely used to fuel cars, has surged 30 percent due to the protests, according to an industry analyst cited by Reuters.


Should Ukraine enter the European Union Poland will lose most of the agricultural and other development subsidies it is currently receiving from the EU. Those subsidies would then flow into the even less developed, low pay Ukraine. It is thus unlikely that Poland will agree to its membership.

Over the last days Ukraine, on top of the losses and political troubles, saw a record storm in the Black Sea accompanied by a serious drop in temperature. Thousands of households in south Ukraine and Crimea are without electricity. Snow is hindering all movements.

Posted by b on November 27, 2023 at 11:30 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/11/u ... .html#more

******

I Don't Think It Was A Mistake.

Truth is, I am on record--once SMO is concluded and the numbers of losses of VSU will be revealed with any degree of certainty, the world will be stunned and there WILL BE questions to London and Washington. The Ukrainian TV Channel 1+1 accidentally did put out real numbers of KIAs and MIAs. Yes, recall that MIA category is a favorite one for VSU and Kiev regime--it is an artificial statistics for avoiding paying compensations and keeping whatever is left of population of 404 in the state of hypnosis. So, here it is:

Image

1, 126,652 KIAs and MIAs for VSU. Somebody will have to answer for this atrocity and the main puppet masters sit in Washington and London and their names will be named at the Ukraine War Crimes Tribunal. Many will also be charged with crimes in absentia. In related news--this number is larger than US losses in all XIX, XX and XXI centuries wars combined. They are beyond comprehension of any US military, let alone, political figure.
The office of a 404 "president" reacted immediately and forced 1+1 to retract the story, but it is too late. It is also a number which many of us here played with based on available data. 404 is done as a state and as a nation. Washington now shifts blame to UK for sabotage of negotiations in Istanbul. Of course, when one has a cretin such as BoJo it is not difficult to do, but Washington doesn't understand that real politics is done in real world, not in PR universe. Russia knows the names of puppet maters. SMO continues and Avdeevka is being mopped up, including Russian forces capturing Yasinovataya-2 station--an abscess which existed since 2014 and was used by NATO forces to shell civilian areas of Donetsk. It was also the most fortified area of all 404 front. The meat-grinder in Avdeevka for VSU continues and probably another couple VSU brigades will perish in coming days. Adds to the score and record of US and British operational "brilliance". But then again, when one studies Zapp Brannigan's operational art and strategy what do you expect?



As many noticed, they love to talk about "human waves" by the Red Army--a BS concocted by Wehrmacht which "taught" Anglo world how to "fight". Talk about projection.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/11 ... stake.html

I got my doubts about that KIA number, 400K to mebbe 50K is horrendous enough. But yeah, the apologists Nazi generals made up all kinds of shit to cover the ass beating they got. As US Grant would tell ya, one man's 'human wave' is another man's superior concentration.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Nov 28, 2023 1:20 pm

Reproaches without repentance
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/28/2023

Image

Unlike a few weeks ago, when part of the press still clung to the possibility of Ukraine's success, there are few articles defending that it is still possible to achieve the political objectives that Kiev and its partners had set for the current counteroffensive. . This may be the clearest sign of its failure. The former United States ambassador to Russia and professor of International Relations at Stanford University Michael McFaul is one of the few high-profile media voices still willing to defend the results of the great ground operation that was going to change the direction of the war. But even he, generally willing to believe each of the Ukrainian Government's statements as absolute truths, has dedicated his latest articles to acting as a pressure group in defense of more weapons for Ukraine despite the poor results on the front. That is now the main task of Ukraine and its closest allies. The work of diplomacy and also reproaches have been dedicated to this, which in the last month have translated into subtle demands that, at times, have a hint of blackmail. This is what can be argued both from Zaluzhny's list of requests in his commented article on the “stalemate” in which the war finds itself, as well as from Arajamia's recent statements, in which he recalls Boris Johnson's words in Kiev, “let's fight”, which implies the supply of weapons to do so.

The minimal change in the composition of the front, Zaluzhny's assessment and Ukraine's interest in beginning to press for an even greater flow of weapons leave little doubt about the outcome of the current offensive, which the Kiev government intends to maintain. throughout the winter. The official discourse tries not to change, since Zelensky cannot afford to admit failure, although he seeks to adapt. In these contradictions between reality and narrative, reproaches also arise.

In a clear exercise of opportunism by someone who seeks to place himself in a better political position, the former advisor to the President's Office Oleksiy Arestovich has briefly summarized the directions that the many darts currently flying between the upper echelons of Ukrainian politics are taking in a post titled “A week of crossing accusations”:

“Arajamia's interview shifts responsibility for the continuation of the war to Johnson.

The statements of Bezuglaya [deputy of Servant of the People] transfer the responsibility for the lack of a plan to continue the war to Zaluzhny.

The “responsible people” began to talk about a conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhny.

Zaluzhny, in an article in The Economist, clearly states: the army did what it could, the responsibility for the continuation of the war lies with the politicians. They must look for a way out of the strategic impasse, and when they find and formulate it, the army will comply.

Zelensky seems to have decided to apportion the blame between Johnson and Zaluzhny.

I think this is a false dilemma. The real responsibility lies with those who promised us, Ukraine, real support to fight a truly great war and did not provide it to us.”

With different points of view on who has failed, political representatives agree, as Arajamia stated, on the need to continue fighting. There is not a single relevant group in the Ukrainian political establishment that advocates compromise and war is understood as the only possible path to a resolution. In that fight, the nuances disappear and the situation is simplified to the extreme to, in the end, reach the simplest conclusion: the West must increase the flow of weapons and financing so that Ukraine can achieve victory, one in which even before Not even the Pentagon's allies believed in the offensive.

Without an analysis of the facts and the political, economic and military possibilities beyond the superficial of the crossed reproaches, Ukraine insists on repeating the strategy, this time with more artillery and Western aviation. Because, despite the tactical differences and the direction of the pointing finger of each Ukrainian political representative, they all seem to agree on the key aspect: Ukraine has not had the weapons it needed to carry out its offensive. The fact that this aspect was evident months before the Western tanks began to collide with the Russian minefields does not seem to be a relevant detail and Ukraine seeks to apply only a part of the lessons learned in the current offensive to fall into mistakes again. Similar. Kiev seeks to balance those aspects in which Russia has shown itself to be superior, among which is artillery despite the enormous Western investment, forgetting the shortcomings that the current operation has revealed. An example of this is the deficiency of Western training, which has not led to a qualitative change, but is one of the solutions proposed by Zaluzhny to improve the conditions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Pointing to different culprits, all types of Ukrainian representatives are looking for the key to the reason for the current failure in order to define that aspect that Kiev must change so that everything remains the same and political pressures do not appear in search of a negotiation. The certainty that the war has entered the trenches and the chronic nature of this situation may be a fact that lasts over time is increasingly widespread. But in the face of the outright refusal to diplomacy, continuing the fight is the only acceptable option for the political and military authorities of Ukraine, who must adapt to events regardless of their consequences.

The few media outlets that have echoed David Arajamia's words have fundamentally highlighted the comment on Boris Johnson's intervention. Staying only with the headline and without adding that Arajamia included the words of the then British Prime Minister as one of three factors that contributed to there being no agreement, these media have once again given credit to Boris Johnson for the decision to choose to continue the war. All of them have ignored or downplayed the other two factors - the political and legislative difficulties implied by renunciation of NATO and the lack of security guarantees from their partners, two aspects closely related to the point of view of the Ukrainian Government, not only from his foreign partners - mentioned by Arajamia, who at no time denies Boris Johnson's position, from which it can be deduced that there was no contradiction then between the position of the British politician and the Zelensky circle.

Among all the reproaches that currently emerge regarding the impotence of observing how it is Russia and not Ukraine that is advancing in various areas of the front, the complete absence of repentance is striking. The end seems to justify not only the means - which for Ukraine includes, for example, depriving the population residing in certain territories under Russian control of water supplies - but also the consequences. In his message, Oleksiy Arestovich drops the figure of “a couple of hundred thousand people would be alive.” Pro-Ukrainian journalists such as Leonid Ragozin have understood the data as the intentional leak of Ukrainian casualties that is much higher than that given by The Economist, 70,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers, which always seemed excessively favorable to Ukraine.

Yesterday, the United Nations published its latest estimate of civilian casualties and reported that they have already exceeded 10,000. The figure represents half of the casualties caused in the last 50 days by the war between Israel and Gaza, of which, according to Israeli figures, only between 1,000 and 2,000 are Hamas soldiers. Even so, despite the fact that the ratio between civilian and military casualties is notably lower than that of the war in the Middle East, kyiv continues to classify the current situation as Russian genocide against the population of Ukraine. This is what President Zelensky did at the current Holodomor commemoration . Ukraine continues to use these arguments, combining them with unconditional support for Israel's war, which is comparatively much more harmful to the civilian population, which, unlike Kiev, does not have a constant supply of weapons, financing or even humanitarian aid. Even so, the only reproach made by the Government that preferred to close the diplomatic channel - both in Minsk and in Istanbul - to condemn its country to a continuous escalation of war is not having obtained an even higher quantity of heavy weapons from its partners. . The turning point of this war has not been the 2023 counteroffensive, but the Istanbul summit. The rejection of diplomacy and not a lack of ammunition, training shortages or political divisions is the cause of the current situation of destruction, military and political blockade and deprivation and uncertainty for the civilian population.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/28/repro ... ntimiento/

Google Translator

******

What's happening in the Northeast Military District zone: chronicle for November 27
November 27, 2023
Rybar

Image

Due to bad weather, the intensity of fighting along the entire front sector decreased significantly. Nevertheless, in the Donetsk direction, the Russian Army continues the operation to encircle the Avdeevsky fortified area . The treatment facilities east of the AKHZ came under the control of the RF Armed Forces. At the same time, Russian units withdrew from the outskirts of Petrovskoye in order to preserve personnel.

In the Vremyevsky sector, units of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division stormed the landing at the Priyutnoye - Staromayorskoye line and improved their tactical position by occupying advantageous heights. In the Kherson direction , the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to take new positions in forest plantations near the village of Krynki , but retreated under artillery fire from the Russian Armed Forces. However, thanks to the established supply of shells and rotation, the enemy still holds the bridgehead.

In Ukraine, dozens of roads in the Odessa , Kiev , Kherson and Nikolaev regions were blocked due to a large amount of snow, which will affect the logistics capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

However, the consequences of the natural disaster will also affect Russian defense: the enemy will try to attack Crimea with surface drones , since the booms could have been damaged by a strong storm.

The situation on the front line and combat operations

In the Starobelsky direction in the Kupyansky sector there are battles in the direction of Sinkovka . However, there are no changes on the front line. Similarly, positional clashes continue on the Tor salient .

Image
In the Soledar direction , the intensity of fighting along almost the entire length of the front decreased due to worsening weather conditions. Nevertheless, positional battles and local attempts at sorties remained, including at Bakhmut . The command of the Ukrainian Soledar group expects the activation of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kleshcheevka and Krasny directions . According to the enemy, Russian troops intend to occupy the heights adjacent to the villages, which, in principle, fits into logic.

Because of such fears, the forces of the 23rd battalion of the 1st presidential brigade were transferred to Krasny to help the 57th rifle battalion. And immediately upon arrival, the assault group of this formation tried to attack to the southeast, but to no avail. The strengthening in this area is associated with the deterioration of morale in 57 special forces and the general losses in manpower in various Ukrainian brigades during repeated attacks, the results of which are negligible in comparison with the price.

The movement of the 515th separate battalion of the 1st separate special forces brigade from the Kharkov region is also being completed in Chasov Yar . The special unit will replace the 77th brigade, which will go to restore its combat capability. A similar replenishment of supplies was carried out in the 80th air assault brigade of the Ukrainian Airborne Forces. It is not yet possible to completely replace it, so 290 mobilized people were sent to its composition.


In the Donetsk direction, in the area of ​​the Avdeevsky fortified area, positional combat operations are taking place. On the northern flank, on the approaches to Novokalinovo, the Ukrainian Armed Forces hold positions in forest belts, making up for losses with fresh supplies of manpower from the defense units. To the east of AKHZ, units of the Russian Armed Forces occupied the territory of the pumping station. At the same time, in the area of ​​​​Stepovoy ( Petrovsky ), the advanced detachments of the Russian army retreated closer to the railway, since further presence in the destroyed settlement promised large losses of personnel and equipment. On the southern flank, in the area of ​​the Yasinovat industrial zone , the Russian Armed Forces are strengthening their positions, preparing for an offensive.

The enemy again tried to attack in the direction of Gorlovka : the Ukrainian Armed Forces are conducting an offensive in the area of ​​waste heaps west of Mayorsk , trying to gain a foothold in the gray zone, and there are oncoming battles.

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In the Yuzhnodonetsk direction, after a relative calm, fighters of the 394th motorized rifle regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division resumed the assault on the landings at the Priyutnoye - Staromayorskoye line . According to Voin DV , as a result of a daring foray, Russian military personnel managed to drive units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into a strong point and subsequently clear it of the enemy.

Thanks to this, the units of the Russian Army occupied more advantageous positions, advancing from the Grusheva ravine to Staromayorsky, where detachments of the 128th Terrestrial Defense Brigade settled. Against this background, the forces of the 175th battalion of the 121st SRW brigade, including the ATGM crew, were transferred to the northwestern outskirts of the settlement. Previously, the formation operated in the Kherson direction , and the personnel were trained to conduct assault operations.


In the Orekhovsky sector, the Ukrainian Armed Forces once again attacked the positions of Russian troops west of Rabotino and towards Novoprokopovka . During the clashes, the enemy used several pieces of heavy equipment, but ultimately was unable to achieve success.

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In the Kherson direction, yesterday, right before a strong storm that affected several regions in southern Russia, Ukrainian marines tried to again wedge into the forest belt in the central part of Krynoki . Two assault groups of the 2nd battalion of the 38th infantry regiment of the Ukrainian Navy secured a foothold to the south of the small forest and began to equip positions there. As a result of our artillery fire and the subsequent sortie of the reconnaissance group, the enemy suffered losses and retreated to reserve positions to the west.

At the same time, to the east of the small forest near the greenhouses, the assault group of the 36th Marine Brigade occupied a strong point, where it immediately came under fire. On the night of November 27, during a storm, the wounded and dead were evacuated to Frolov Island . However, taking advantage of bad weather conditions and low visibility, separate units of the Ukrainian Navy are trying to hold the lines in the forest belt adjacent to Krynki. Copters with a grenade drop system and ammunition were sent there to strengthen the lines.

Rotation and replenishment of supplies have been established, which allows us to maintain a bridgehead in the village and try to gain a foothold in the forest, but without success due to a change in the tactics of our command. However, as the soil freezes, activity will likely increase, and not only in this area. This is indicated by today's sortie of Marines in the Poyma area , which was quickly repulsed by artillery fire.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas
Late in the evening, Ukrainian formations attacked the Smolensk and Oryol regions with drones , as well as Ryazan twice , but all the devices were intercepted by air defense systems. In the morning, another UAV was shot down in the Rostov region .

In the Donetsk People's Republic, the day was relatively calm due to bad weather: the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired several times at the Kuibyshevsky and Petrovsky districts of Donetsk , in the Leninsky district the roof of a dry cleaner and an auto parts store was damaged, but there were no casualties. Two residential buildings were damaged in Gorlovka . At the same time, due to the storm wind, many subscribers are left without electricity and communications, and restoration work is underway.


In addition, Ukrainian formations fired from the HIMARS MLRS at the city of Pologi near the front line in the Zaporozhye region . Unfortunately, 2 civilians were killed, and four more were injured of varying degrees of severity. In addition, civilian infrastructure suffered significant damage.


Despite the bad weather in the south of the Kherson region , the enemy continues to shell the left bank of the Dnieper. Kakhovka , Golaya Pristan , Kardashinka , Korsunka , Peschanovka and Maslovka were under attack throughout the night . In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces killed a man in Novaya Kakhovka by firing at a road service workshop.

Political events

About the shortage of young soldiers in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The Financial Times writes that the main age group of the Ukrainian army consists of men aged 30 to 40 years. It is difficult for them to adapt to trench fighting, where physical fitness and endurance are important. An additional argument is the fact that due to Russia’s advantage in the number of equipment and soldiers, Ukraine cannot afford to send unprepared troops to the front. In general, this news looks like nothing more than a test of public opinion on lowering the conscription age. Earlier, individual commanders of the Azov assault battalions spoke about the need to mobilize students into the army. The reaction of Ukrainian society to such informational events will be able to help senior officials in power determine whether it is ready to take further steps in “tightening the screws” on conscription conditions. Wall Street notes that due to a shortage of equipment and people, this winter will be difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. If Ukraine “does not draw conclusions” over the next year, its prospects for further successes in the longer term will become even bleaker. Without another wave of mobilization and due to a shortage of shells, Ukrainian formations will be forced to go on the defensive, accumulating forces.

About the main goals of NATO in Ukraine

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO has two fundamental tasks. “The first is support for Ukraine. Another important task is to prevent escalation, to prevent this conflict from turning into a full-scale war between Russia and NATO. Because this will bring even more suffering, death and destruction . " At the same time, NATO is strengthening the alliance's eastern borders, "sending signals to Putin" who "has no intention of capitulating ," forcing NATO to respond accordingly. According to him, the cost of Ukraine’s defeat is even higher, since the alliance will be more vulnerable if “Putin wins.” At the same time, Stoltenberg once again recalled that Ukraine can become a NATO member only after the end of hostilities, and Ukraine “must decide which ways to end this war are acceptable . ” The latter sounds especially ironic, given the scale of arms supplies and injections of money into the Ukrainian economy from Western countries and their influence on the foreign policy pursued by President Zelensky’s office .

On the supply of French patrol boats to Ukraine

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Recently, in the French port of Saint - Nazaire , four FPB 98 patrol boats were loaded onto the Fusion transport vessel. Let us recall that these are the same craft that observers observed in the Bosphorus Strait in the summer. According to the 2019 contract, the French must supply 20 such boats. Previous deliveries followed the same pattern to the Romanian port of Constanta , and then overland to the port of Izmail , where the FPB 98s are still located.

With a high degree of probability, this time the route will be similar. The Fusion is currently moving south of Spain after passing through the Strait of Gibraltar . The whole journey will take about another week. Despite statements by the Ukrainian authorities and a change in focus from Ukraine to other regions, supplies of weapons and equipment continue. Not in the same volumes as in the spring, but, nevertheless, there is still help. American fighters have already been brought to them , pilot training in Romania is in full swing, mobilization resources are still available. And the appearance of four new high-speed boats will increase the capabilities of the “mosquito” fleet, which should not be forgotten.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

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The United Eunuchs of Europe

Laura Ruggeri

November 26, 2023

A ‘geopolitical EU’ remains little more than a consolatory fantasy predicated on its power of attraction — the queue to join.

At the end of October, the president of the EU parliament Roberta Metsola was asked by a journalist whether the EU would formally open Ukraine and Moldova’s accession talks after granting candidate status to these countries in 2022.

“If a country looks to Europe, then Europe should fling its doors wide open. Enlargement has always been the European Union’s strongest geopolitical tool.”

Though Metsola simply rephrased statements made by the head of the European Commission Ursula Von der Leyen and by the president of the European Council Charles Michel, her word choice offers an excellent insight into the ideological underpinnings of EU expansionism.

Metsola conflates Europe and the European Union, but this is not simply a slip of the tongue, Brussels has a long tradition of assuming that the EU equals Europe and countries lying outside its borders are not truly European otherwise they wouldn’t be ‘looking to Europe’. To become European is to become ‘civilized’ since outside the ‘garden of Europe’ people live in a ‘jungle’, at least according to EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell. The EU, posited as the embodiment of superior values, has a moral duty to open its doors and admit those unfortunate countries that are currently locked out of this garden of delights, and by doing so, rescue them from some unspecified danger. Basically, a variation on the colonial theme of the white saviour. Then Metsola offers the decisive argument in support of enlargement: well, duh, it’s a geopolitical tool to make the EU stronger.

Whether enlargement would make the bloc stronger as its proponents claim or, on the contrary, accelerate its implosion, has divided opinions for two decades. Metsola conveniently forgets to mention that without unanimous agreement accession talks can’t even be started, but of course Eurocrats can’t let facts get in the way of a good narrative.

The metaphors used by Metsola (the door) and Borrell (garden/jungle) reinforce the spatial dichotomy inside/outside that culturally reflects the opposition between positive and negative values, civilization and barbarism. Without a ‘chaotic’ external sphere, actual or imagined, the internal structure wouldn’t appear orderly, actually it wouldn’t appear at all: figure and background would blend in a continuum. Positing the existence of a dangerous jungle inhabited by barbarians is essential to maintain the illusion of order and civility inside. Problem is, at each round of enlargement the entropy of the system increases. History has shown that when imperial expansion is attempted without the necessary preconditions — a sufficiently strong military and an economy capable of sustaining it, an effective leadership, an ideology that spurs the desire for empire, and healthy institutional ties between the core and the periphery — the result is inevitably overreach, failure and defeat. But don’t ask our eunuchs about empires, especially the overstretched one they serve. They believe their own propaganda and are committed to “protecting, promoting and projecting European values, defending democracy and human rights in the interest of the common, public good. Fostering stability and prosperity in the world, protecting a rules-based world order, is a basic precondition for protection of the Union’s values.” When it comes to EU statements parody is unncessary, the original achieves the same comedic effect.

Whether further expansion is good or bad for the EU has become the modern equivalent of the old Byzantine discussion over the sex of angels, and while no agreement can be reached, the process has largely stalled after the biggest wave of new members joined in 2004 and Croatia in 2013. So why has it topped the agenda of so many Eurocrats in the last two years? Mainly because supporters of expansion hoped that they could leverage on the unity that the EU mustered vis-à-vis the conflict in Ukraine to push through a a proxy imperialist project fuelled by Washington’s magical thinking. The cornerstone of this project was the full capture of Ukraine whose NATO-trained army should have dealt a decisive blow to Russia. As we know, things aren’t exactly going to plan and that unity of purpose now seems as precarious as Ukraine’s future.

Ukraine had been promised EU candidate status for years and finally received it in return for a blood sacrifice. Obviously, it doesn’t qualify for membership, and the prospect of sitting in a crowded waiting room with other candidates for the foreseeable future isn’t exactly worth dying for. Brussels has to first find and then dangle a more appealing carrot at a time when opinion polls show that support for Ukraine is waning.

After coming to the defence of the U.S. ‘rules-based-order’ the EU has a bag full of IOUs, a weakened economy, and Borrell’s garden of earthly delights increasingly resembles the dark panel of Hieronymus Bosch’s famous triptych.

One may think that discussing EU enlargement while the bloc faces major crises that are stress-testing it to break-point is the epitome of insanity. Actually, some commentators have already drawn parallels between the EU’s leadership and Nero fiddling as Rome burned. But allegedly Nero did something else besides fiddling, he blamed Christians for the fire. Offering an enemy within or an enemy without, is a tried and tested tactic to crush dissent and consolidate power. And that is exactly what Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock tried at a recent conference in Berlin dedicated to EU enlargement. She told 17 foreign ministers from EU and candidate countries, including Ukraine’s Dmytro Kuleba, that the EU must expand to avoid making everyone vulnerable.

“Putin’s Moscow will continue to try to divide not only Ukraine from us, but also Moldova, Georgia and the Western Balkans. If these countries can be permanently destabilised by Russia, then that also makes us vulnerable. We can no longer afford grey areas in Europe”. Whatever happened to promises of economic growth, investments and access to a wealthy market? As they all sound pretty hollow in 2023, Baerbock invokes the bogeyman. Gone is all pretence that the EU and NATO pursue different strategies.

With the door to NATO closed to Ukraine and Washington shifting its focus to the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific, the burden of supporting Ukraine “to defend Europe” has been dumped on the EU.

If painting Russia as a threat has long been used by the U.S. to keep NATO alive, in more recent years it has been exploited to unify the foreign and defense policy of EU member states. Washington promoted and facilitated a vertical consolidation of power in the EU in order to outsource to Brussels some of the policing and punitive functions that enable its global capital accumulation and underpin its hegemony. According to its calculus, dealing with one collective vassal, the EU, would be easier than managing several squabbling and competing European vassals. This strategy reflects Washington’s poor grasp of Europe’s history and complexity and that’s why it is unlikely to produce the desired results, especially since European interests were sacrificed at the altar of American ones. After siphoning off wealth from EU countries and restricting their room for manoeuvre, the pie has shrunk and it’s only natural that the scramble to get a slice will intensify. Looting and cannibalizing your allies isn’t exactly a smart move, it reeks of desperation and is a clear sign that the U.S. is financially and militarily overextended.

The economic and industrial decline in EU countries now seems unarrestable. It couldn’t be otherwise when you are trapped in an abusive and exploitative relationship that denies you the freedom to choose your friends and business partners. The economic and geopolitical centre of gravity has moved eastward, the unipolar world order that emerged in the 1990s is unravelling and a new multipolar order is taking shape before our eyes. Instead of following the pragmatic path of Eurasian integration and bolstering mutually beneficial economic ties with China and Russia, the EU has embarked on a suicide mission for its curators in Washington in the doomed attempt to weaken Russia and contain China.

For years the EU had been allowed to benefit from the U.S.-led globalization drive; it developed trade relations and multilateral cooperation with neighbouring countries and the rest of the world. The U.S. rather than accept the emergence of a new multipolar reality, chose to reverse globalization and split the world into two blocs, creatively framing the competition as an ideological confrontation between democracy and autocracy. Trade protectionism increased, international investments were subjected to heightened scrutiny on national security grounds, data-flow restrictions proliferated, sanctions became the norm.

After being condemned to geopolitical irrelevance, European countries are called upon to foot the bill of U.S. imperial ambitions and provide military assistance. A report published by the RAND corporation in November acknowledged that the U.S. defence strategy and posture have become insolvent and recommended a different approach:

“The tasks that the U.S. government and its citizens expect their military forces and other elements of national power to do internationally greatly exceed the means available to accomplish those tasks.

The United States cannot and should not on its own attempt to develop the requisite operational concepts, postures, and capabilities required to realize this new approach to defeating aggression. The imperative for allied and partner participation is about more than just generating the resources needed for a credible combined defense. Because deterrence is about more than raw military power, solidarity among the leading democratically governed nations is required in diplomatic and economic dimensions as well. And closer cooperation and interdependence in the defense arena will have beneficial spillover effects in other areas, helping facilitate coordinated action to meet common challenges.”

To better assist the moribund hegemon, the EU is being told to enlarge and reform. Actually reform is deemed even more urgent than enlargement because the U.S. fears that the EU’s ability to carry out the prescribed task might be undermined by a handful of countries exercising their veto power. At the centre of the conversation is the EU’s unanimity rule, which means every country must agree before the bloc can make a decision on issues such as foreign policy, assistance to Ukraine or tax rules.

It is no coincidence that the loudest arguments in favour of EU expansion and majority vote in lieu of unanimity are being heard in Atlanticist circles. Washington needs to strengthen control over Europe’s foreign and security policies and that’s why it has intensified pressure on France and Germany, as well as other European states that are resisting the prospect of Ukraine, Moldova and West Balkan states joining the club in the future.

The capture of Europe

In the kind of EU that Paris and Berlin dreamed of 30 years ago, Baltic and Eastern European countries would provide cheap land and labour, and new untapped markets for their companies — the ideal Lebensraum for ambitious, enterprising Western Europeans. This neo-colonial scenario would be assisted by cultural imperialism and facilitated by geographical proximity.

But in the post-Cold war euphoria the Franco-German tandem didn’t pay attention to the Stone Guest: the expansion of NATO was proceeding at a much faster pace than the enlargement of the EU. Despite the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, NATO hadn’t been disbanded, if anything its mission “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down” had been given new impetus after NATO welcomed states whose new political elites had been groomed exactly for that mission.

Not only would the Americans call the shots louder than before, they could count on more allies to do exactly that. As new member states joined the EU, their anti-Russian sentiment also started playing a disproportionate role in shaping EU relations with Russia. As a matter of fact, Russophobia was actively cultivated in post-Soviet states to prop up fragile, and in some cases totally artificial, national identities, and lend legitimacy to new rulers.

In order to glue together new and old members and attract more candidates, the EU turned political problems into technocratic ones, relied on legal procedures and allocated or withdrew financial resources to impose its ‘vision’, became an ideational actor and a ‘global teacher’ of neoliberal principles, Western ‘values’ and EU standards. To conceal its anti-democratic nature and legitimize an invasive bureaucratic apparatus completely disembedded from the wider society, the EU turned into a giant PR machine that drained resources to project moral authority and keep up appearances.

Lacking democratic legitimacy, the EU had to invest considerable resources in creating a simulacrum of democracy. Lacking a demos, it had to invent one through a ‘civilizing mission’ that was undertaken with missionary zeal. In order to create the new ‘European demos’, national, cultural and religious identities had to be diluted first (or artificially inflated where they served an anti-Russian function), one step at a time, starting from kindergarten, and then replaced by some woke ersatz provided by the likes of the WEF and Open Society Foundations — the social engineering path to civilization!

One should bear in mind that the EU is neither an independent geopolitical actor, nor a ‘geopolitical power’, regardless of what Borrell or Von der Leyen rave about. The EU was created to drain power away from member states, erode their sovereignty, so that they will never become a challenge to U.S. interests and power. As a result, the EU isn’t greater than the sum of its parts, it’s the geopolitical equivalent of a black hole. Its institutional architecture, an intricate network of talking shops, is so mind-boggling and mind-numbing that Henry Kissinger, when he was U.S. Secretary of State, famously quipped “Who do I call if I want to call Europe?”

Neither an international organisation nor a nation state, the EU can be described as an artificial supranational polity. This takes the form of numerous mutually penetrating networks of social, economic, political, ideological, interconnections which include, at different levels and stages, supranational mechanisms, national governments, regional administrations, multinational corporations, and interest groups whose reach is international.

So when we talk about the EU we should remember that it is run like a private club for a cluster of transatlantic corporations and financial elites. Their lobbies and think tanks control the knowledge and information that shapes public opinion and that figureheads act upon — EU leaders are invariably failed politicians and mediocrities whose political careers were facilitated by the same lobbies that own them and dictate their agenda.

As these transatlantic elites engage in a global struggle to maintain and increase their power, seize and control resources, from digital data to natural resources, they form cartels when their interests coincide, or compete for political influence when their interests diverge. The ‘culture wars’ that have made rational debate virtually impossible in the West are often fuelled by these elites as they have the means to mobilize political resources — people, votes and parties — around certain positions on cultural issues.

The European integration process is an imperialist project both in the sense of the relation of the EU to the rest of the imperialist chain, but also inside the EU in the uneven relations between the different countries.

The signs of a deep crisis of European integration have multiplied, Brexit being the most obvious but not the only example. The growing crisis of legitimacy is also exemplified in the reaction of voters in EU countries. Contrary to the accusations of ‘populism’ and ‘nationalism’ addressed to anyone who is critical of European integration, what emerges is rather the anxiety caused by people’s sense of a lack of control over their own lives, disbelief against the undemocratic institutional and political framework of the EU.

Since living standards continue to drop and promises of prosperity and social welfare in the European garden are largely unmet, dissatisfaction and dissent are rising, and not only among ordinary people. Some national elites have become more restive too because they are penalized by the EU hostility against Russia, and increasingly China. EU’s potential for economic growth has been exhausted and the majority of the bloc’s members suffer from chronic budget deficiency and excessive state debt.

But since the U.S. needs all hands on deck to prop up its rapidly waning hegemony, the EU doubled down on its role of enforcer of the U.S. rules by interweaving NATO and the EU into an architecture of control and propaganda — hybrid warfare has been unleashed against the European population under the guise of defending it from Russian disinformation. In such a context more resources are being diverted to the defence and security budget, and to U.S. proxies such as Ukraine. No matter how you spin it, it is obvious that only a handful of well-connected companies benefit from an increase in member states’ military expenditure and R&D.

The Covid-19 emergency offered the U.S. the perfect opportunity to check if all its European ducks were in a row. For the first time in its history the EU adopted a joint procurement strategy: the joint procurement of vaccines not only tested cohesion, coordination, the ability to ‘act quickly’ and mobilize financial resources, it constituted a precedent that later facilitated the joint procurement of weapons for Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions on Russia. The exclusion of Russian and Chinese vaccines showed that the EU could be trusted to obey orders even if they conflicted with its economic interests — U.S. mRNA vaccines were more expensive than the alternative and relied on a technology whose safety hadn’t been proven. The EU media and political debates deployed the language of warfare by referring to a ‘war’ against Covid-19, the virus was ‘fought back’, medics and paramedics were described as ‘front-line soldiers’.

A cognitive metaphor of war helped structure the perception of reality. The state of exception was normalized, leading to the suspension of constitutional rights. The pandemic offered the pretext to carry out the most far-reaching psychological operation ever attempted in peace time: any public display of dissent or non-compliance with nonsensical rules was harshly repressed, media and social media were weaponized to brainwash and censor the public, the capacity of the EU new army of ‘fact-checkers’ was boosted and the scope of digital surveillance was extended.

Lockdowns led to huge economic losses (and gains for a handful of mostly American tech and pharma companies) but also to a paradigm shift in the EU fiscal, monetary and investment policies, notably through the adaptation of State aid to allow member states to support their economies by means of more direct intervention. It signalled a break from the austerity policy adopted after the financial crisis of 2008. As states became more indebted they had to cede even more sovereignty to the EU: the development strategies and goals of member states had to align with priorities set by the EU and mainly benefitting the U.S. The debt trap was presented as a recovery plan with high-sounding names such as Next Generation EU (NGEU) — €360 billion in loans and €390 billion in grants.

As they say, never let a crisis go to waste. An emergency creates a sense of urgency and the need to act quickly, which seriously reduces the ability to think carefully. This approach paved the way for the acceptance of even greater losses later, when the EU imposed sanctions on Russia that turned into a boomerang. Any hesitation to give up Russian gas was promptly pre-empted by its American ‘partner’ through the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines.

Eurocrats who love being loved, especially the pay-to-play manifestation of love, are now kept on a shorter leash. It is estimated that there are around 30,000 registered lobbyists in Brussels and they have been spreading love for decades. But in more recent times only U.S.-vetted lobbyists have been granted free rein. It appears that the arrests that followed the Qatargate were a warning to eurocrats: accepting bribes from certain foreign actors like Qatar will no longer be tolerated. Transatlantic interests must always come first.

EU enlargement — cui prodest?

Though expansion has been enshrined in EU official documents as a geo-strategic imperative, the EU is now facing far bigger challenges than it did in the post-Cold War years. In the early Noughties, European leaders discussed whether to enlarge the union, absorbing Eastern bloc countries, or to deepen its integration. They tried both and the result is an unsustainable mess according to all socio-economic indicators, even before you factor in the mind-blowing cost of supporting Ukraine, the loss of affordable energy resources from Russia and boomerang sanctions.

Think tanks, eurocrats and the media have recently increased their efforts to spin past examples of EU enlargement as a success and future enlargement as an opportunity, but outside their echo chambers scepticism is growing and enlargement fatigue has set in.

If enlargement is being discussed is because talk is cheap. Ask North Macedonia, a country that was granted candidate status in 2005 and is still on the waiting list. The application of Ukraine and Moldova was hastily accepted in 2022 to dangle a carrot in front of them, knowing perfectly well that neither country meets criteria to join the union. Besides, it’s still better for the EU to keep them on the hook, never sealing the deal. Nine countries were formally made the same promise, and you can’t fast track Ukraine and Moldova’s accession without causing resentment.

But as Washington fears that ‘politically and economically vulnerable countries’ would lose patience with the EU, and find more attractive partners to support their development, namely China and Russia, the EU has to keep making promises and most crucially, bankroll political elites in neighbouring countries to bolster their power and clientele. The U.S. is also counting on the EU to fund Ukraine’s war efforts and the reconstruction of whatever will be left of this failed country when the military conflict ends. Let European taxpayers pick up the bill: the EU’s support to the Kiev regime has now reached €85 billion and Von der Leyen promised more will come. An additional €50 billion for the ‘Ukraine Facility’ was proposed by the European Commission for the years 2024 to 2027. In 2022 the European Parliament had approved €150 million to prop up Moldova’s puppet government.

As the EU cannot expand without imploding, France and Germany invited 12 experts to form a a working group on EU institutional reforms. They have come up with a set of proposals for a multi-speed construct that would allow some member states to integrate more deeply in certain areas and prevent others from stopping them. The report proposes to get rid of the requirements for unanimous voting, even if scrapping vetoes entails accepting different levels of commitment. It envisages four tiers of membership, the last two falling outside the EU altogether. These ‘concentric circles’ would include an inner circle whose members could have even closer ties than those that bind the existing EU; the EU itself; associate membership (internal market only); and the looser, less demanding tier of the new European Political Community.

The main ‘advantage’ for the Collective West is that all the countries of this ‘Europe’ will be cut off from Russia and Belarus, but it’s not clear what are the advantages for countries in the outer tier given that they will have limited or no access to the Single Market but are expected to give up part of their own national sovereignty in favour of Brussels, losing autonomy and room for manoeuvre in a multipolar world.

Last October, the European Political Community — a talking shop that includes leaders of EU countries, EU candidates, Switzerland, Norway, the UK, and even Armenia and Azerbaijan — convened in Granada to discuss a potential enlargement of the bloc. The meeting was supposed to strengthen resolve but instead it deepened the reservations of those who never warmed up to the idea of enlarging the EU at the expense of current members. Some members have already done the math and realized that if the proposed EU enlargement goes ahead they will have to pay more to and receive less from the EU budget: net receivers will become net contributors. Understandably they are not too excited at the prospect.

While increased EU-NATO integration and eastward expansion created new powerful lobbies and a new class of ultra-Atlanticist eurocrats, EU member states lost any semblance of strategic autonomy and therefore any chance to protect or advance their economic and geopolitical interests. Initially it was the working class of Southern and Western European countries that bore the brunt of the EU expansion, then the middle class too started to feel the pinch. These days Italy’s GDP per capita has fallen to Mississippi’s level, the poorest state in the U.S.; France’s is a little better, it falls somewhere between Idaho’s and Arkansas’, while Germany’s, the engine of the European economy, matches Oklahoma’s. Not exactly a success story.

Though EU sceptics have become more numerous and vocal in these countries, their political influence is limited. Their adversaries represent the interests of a new political and economic elite that emerged through both the material and symbolic co-constitution of the administrative and bureaucratic apparatus of the EU. This elite, through the apportionment and disbursement of funds, can induce compliance or reward the loyalty of politicians. By controlling the purse strings, it can act as kingmaker in any EU country.

It goes without saying that this elite shares the habitus and neoliberal ideology of transnational elites more at home in London and New York than in Brussels. It would be naive to expect it to defend European interests. As a matter of fact, it doesn’t. The eurozone countries, which 15 years ago had a GDP of a little over thirteen trillion euros, today have increased it by two miserable trillion, while the U.S. has almost doubled its GDP (from 13.8 to 26.9 trillion euros) despite its smaller population. According to the Financial Times, in dollar terms, the European Union economy is now 65% of the United States economy. That’s down from 91% in 2013. American GDP per capita is more than twice that of Europe, and the gap continues to widen. Brilliant work!

If EU leaders are routinely bypassed in favour of national leaders in international negotiations it’s because the EU fits the definition of a paper tiger. The unity shown vis-à-vis the proxy war in Ukraine can’t be sustained for long and its main American and European architects will no longer be in office in a year time. Europe’s political setup militates against a proactive foreign and defence policy. So, when Borrell raves about the need for Europe to turn from a soft power to a hard power, he conveniently forgets that the EU is not a state actor. It has some of the attributes of statehood — legal personality, some exclusive competences, a diplomatic service and some EU countries have a common currency — but ultimately it is a hybrid and as such is not equipped to play a 19th century ’great game’ of power politics. And, to be honest, it will not be equipped to do so for many years to come. A ‘geopolitical EU’ remains little more than a consolatory fantasy predicated on its power of attraction — the queue to join.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/ ... of-europe/

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10 theses on freezing the war on LBS
colonelcassad
November 27, 19:23

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10 theses on freezing the war on LBS.

1. At the moment, only one of the stated goals of the North Military District has been achieved - the territory of the LPR has been liberated.

2. The remaining goals of the SVO are the liberation of the DPR, denazification, demilitarization, neutralization, etc. not fulfilled.

3. Goals that were not originally intended were achieved - 2 new regions joined Russia, which Russia did not demand from Ukraine in 2022 + a land corridor to Crimea was cut, and the Sea of ​​Azov became internal.

4. The freeze along the LBS line means that most of the initial goals of the Northern Military District will remain unachieved in exchange for 2 regions with incomplete borders and a land corridor to Crimea. At the same time, Russia seems to agree that part of the territories of the DPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, which according to the constitution are part of Russia, remain under Ukrainian and, in fact, NATO occupation.

5. At the same time, the Nazi regime in Ukraine will be preserved, rearmed and reformatted for a long-term war against Russia. And the territory of Ukraine itself will be used as a systematic springboard for constant military and other provocations. Everything that is loyal to Russia in the Nazi-occupied territories will be purged even more, especially since the enemy knows that there are enough people there who are waiting for liberation.

6. To compensate for the human, material and economic losses already incurred, Russia needs something more than part of two more regions with an unrecognized status, which does not solve any of the strategic problems that led to the beginning of the NWO.

7. The rumors about the freeze occur during a period of obvious weakness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Zelensky regime after the defeat in the summer-autumn campaign and are aimed at driving Russia into another meaningless “truce” ala Minsk, with a completely understandable and predictable ending.

8. Judging by the statements of the Russian military-political leadership, the West is aware of this propaganda and diplomatic game, so no one is going to agree to this option. That is why the West assesses the current position of the Russian Federation on Ukraine as “not inclined to negotiations.” The propensity to negotiate in the West is usually understood as Russia's readiness to make concessions or capitulate.

9. I hope that nothing else will change on this issue and that there will be no more miscalculations that led to the “Minsk policy” or incorrect expectations at the beginning of the Northern Military District. The level of support from the authorities in the country is now sufficient, there are economic opportunities for a long-term military campaign aimed at achieving the goals of the Northern Military District, the army is gradually learning, including from its mistakes. And the current negative background around the prospects for war in the West is a direct consequence of underestimating Russia’s capabilities to wage a long war to achieve its goals.

10. Therefore, we must prepare ourselves for long-term systematic work to ensure that our army and military-industrial complex are able to ensure the fulfillment of the goals of the Northern Military District in confrontation with the United States and NATO over a long distance. At the moment, hopes for US negotiating capacity appear to be dangerous illusions that should be rejected.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/104928 - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8791748.html

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:41 pm

Rising Tensions Between Political and Military Leaders in Ukraine as Military Campaign Fails
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on NOVEMBER 27, 2023
Dmitri Kovalevich

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In November, the Ukrainian authorities once again extended martial law for three months. This means that the presidential election scheduled for March 31, 2024, will not happen because the election law requires 100 days for campaigning. Martial law restrictions and a ‘democratic election’ are not mixing well in militarized Ukraine.

Volodymyr Zelensky himself affirmed on November 6 that “now is not the right time” to hold an election. The secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, predicts “great misfortune” for Ukraine if an election were held because of the widespread political discussion it would provoke. But there is a rub: President Zelenskyy’s election term, according to the Constitution, ends on March 31, 2024. After that, he loses constitutional legitimacy and becomes a usurper of power.

Additionally, legislative elections in Ukraine should have been held in October 2023, meaning the legislature has actually lost its constitutional legitimacy, even if it continues to pass laws. These legal nuances do not receive any attention from the Western sponsors of the Kyiv regime or the regime itself. That is because, in their opinion, the abolition of democracy in Ukraine has taken place in the name of “democracy” and the fight against the “authoritarian regime” of the Russian Federation. In Russia, presidential and legislative elections will be held next year.

Meanwhile, The Economist newsmagazine recently cited Western officials saying that the conflict in Ukraine may well last another five years. The Western military-industrial complexes like the sound of such a scenario predicting a drawn-out battle because a long war would be profitable for them. What’s more, in order to motivate Western governments to make room in their budgets to expand the military-industrial complex, the demand for more and more armaments must be good for years, if not permanently.

Ukraine cannot sustain its war machine

But here is the problem that concerns Ukraine: the country will soon exhaust its human resources, regardless of how many armaments are sent its way by the NATO countries.

The American satirical publication The Babylon Bee draws attention to this contradiction when it writes, jokingly, “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for the immediate suspension of presidential elections in his country, so that he may focus all his efforts on fighting to protect democracy in Ukraine. ‘We must suspend democracy to save democracy’, said Zelensky during his weekly ‘telemarathon’ [situation report]. ‘If we allow democracy to get in the way of fighting for democracy, we might lose our democracy. And also lose our billions of sweet, sweet American dollars. What will happen to my superyacht in Dubai… Oh, sorry, what was I talking about? Oh yeah, it’s time to cancel elections so I may remain president indefinitely’”.

The Bee‘s humor is not so humorous for the Ukrainian people because in order to maintain power, Zelensky could theoretically extend martial law endlessly, thereby forcing thousands and thousands more conscripted citizens into the slaughter along the front lines.

An MP from Zelensky’s party and his closest adviser, Mykola Tishchenko, recently responded rather frankly to a colleague, MP Heorhiy Mazurashu, about the state of democracy in Ukraine. “Democracy does not exist anywhere in the world”, he said. “It is a myth”.

Concern about 2024 U.S. election

Nevertheless, Zelensky rather suspects the likelihood of a change of administration in the United States next year. In anticipation, his office has begun to examine the exact stances of the Republican Party, as it similarly studied four years ago where the Democratic Party stood on Kyiv’s conflict with Russia. In November, Zelensky invited Donald Trump to Ukraine, presumably expecting to hear from Trump there would be no overtures with Russia for a negotiated end to the war should Trump be elected. Wartime rule is all that Zelensky and his advisers and sycophants have left. Trump declined the invitation to visit.

Ukrainian authorities then came up with the idea of inviting former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to join the board of directors of Ukrainian operator Kyivstar, Ukraine’s largest mobile operator. Pompeo is reported to have accepted.

Under a similar scheme, Joe Biden’s son was earlier invited and accepted to work at the Ukrainian gas production company Burisma. This kind of work pays stratospheric salaries to selected board members who may not even show up to attend meetings or who merely stage rote appearances. It is called ‘sinecure’ in English, defined as a position requiring little or no work but giving the holder status or financial benefit’. It is a common form of bribery and corruption of high-ranking officials in capitalist countries, including in subordinate countries such as Ukraine. “This is how bribes are paid in the ‘enlightened’ West”, writes the Telegram channel ‘Open Ukraine’, commenting on Mike Pompeo’s new job. “Gone are the days of paying bribes with suitcases stuffed with cash”.

Rifts exposed between Ukraine’s political and military leaders

However, after the failed ‘counteroffensive’ of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), launched in June of this year to much fanfare but with little achieved many months later, and after recent delays in promised deliveries of more U.S. military supplies to Ukraine (perhaps portending outright cuts to supplies by the U.S. government), a rift has emerged within the Ukrainian power system. Since his election in 2019, Zelensky has already purged the near entirety of the political opposition in the country, accusing many of them of “working for the Kremlin”. So the only political conflicts that can now erupt are internal, pitting the governing regime against this or that clan of former associates. Odessa-based anarchist Vyacheslav Azarov writes that all of opposition politics in Ukraine is now reduced to “squabbles of factions within the ruling party”.

The main rift today is between the country’s political and military leadership. The real power in Ukraine sits with those who control the military, including its far-right paramilitary formations now fully integrated into the regular armed forces. Failures in the counteroffensive have deepened existing frictions and political divisions.

The Ukrainian military is now blaming the political leadership for throwing it to the slaughter for the purpose of providing Western benefactors with images and reports of military ‘successes’, which, in turn, act to sustain the flow of money and arms to Kyiv. Ukrainian soldiers are routinely labeling their commanders as ‘butchers’ for sending them for the umpteenth time to storm Russian defense lines head-on, in many cases stepping over the bodies of their comrades who fell during previous assaults since June. For his part, Zelensky blames the generals for the failure of the counteroffensive.

According to Zelensky’s former adviser Oleksiy Arestovich (who has fled to the U.S.), the president is in a “serious conflict” with high-ranking Ukrainian military officers over the failure of the AFU counteroffensive. As it turns out, Ukrainian military leaders are not satisfied with the misuse of Western military aid and the low level of competence of the government, as they see it. Zelensky’s policy is simply becoming ineffective, says Arestovich. He explained in a recent interview with Spain’s El Mundo that the position of AFU commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi “often radically diverges” from Zelensky’s position.

Valeriy Zaluzhnyi leads a group of disgruntled military men and is in a position to challenge Zelensky. All other rivals from the 2019 election find themselves either in jail or in exile. Some analysts believe that Zaluzhnyi may be chosen to replace Zelensky for the purpose of leading when the negotiations inevitably take place with Russia. One year ago, Zelensky banned all negotiations with the Russian president. It would be a very difficult sell for him to now turn around and conduct talks.

Zaluzhnyi told The Economist on November 1 that the conflict with Russia had entered a “stalemate”. Zelensky has responded with harsh words for his top general, telling him to “stay out of politics” (as though Zaluzhnyi’s claim of ‘stalemate’ has nothing to do with military realities).

Sergei Markov, director of the Russian Institute for Political Studies, believes that the head of Zelensky’s Office, Andrei Yermak, flew to the United States in mid-November to meet with current Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and coordinate the dismissal of General Zaluzhnyi. “But not simply fire him. If Zelensky fires Zaluzhnyi… he will become a free man who will be able to run for president and win the election [in 2024] against Zelensky. The president suspects that the Americans want to replace him with Zaluzhnyi. Therefore, Zelensky must not just fire Zaluzhnyi, but repress him, accusing him of corruption or high treason. Zelensky can also appoint Zaluzhnyi to a position that prohibits him from participating in elections. This is the main problem that Zelensky is tackling”.

According to Markov, there is a popular belief in United States governing circles that leaders in countries subordinate to the West should be periodically changed so that they do not become too independent. That said, Markov believes that a change of leaders in Ukraine at this stage cannot affect the outcome of Russian military operations for the simple reason that one or the other leader is not the one directing the course of the country. That is being decided and directed in Washington.

An MP from Zelensky’s party, Yevhen Shevchenko, says that General Zaluzhnyi has very flawed perceptions of reality. He dreams and writes about robots replacing humans in combat. If you read his narrative in The Economist on November 1 [text here], his ideas for ‘winning’ the war include acquiring ‘military-technological innovation’, going so far as to compare today’s situation to that of hundreds of years ago when China first invented and used gunpowder.

“He is referring to robot soldiers. He saw these robots somewhere at a military exhibition in New York, then came to Zelensky and said, ‘We need those.’ ”

Shevchenko writes that sooner or later, Ukraine’s supply of soldiers will run out. “Can you imagine the look on Zelensky’s face when he heard about ‘robot soldiers’ from Zaluzhnyi? Now do you understand the nature of their conflict?”

In an interview with Ukrainian political analyst Vadim Karasev, AFU Major General Dmytro Marchenko blames Zaluzhnyi for the failure of the counter-offensive. “Who forced us to attack right at the center of the enemy’s reinforced defenses instead of along the flanks? Who was deciding this? Where are the diversionary and deceptive maneuvers that are needed? Where are they? And we thought he was a brilliant commander”, Marchenko said.

As a Ukrainian saying goes, a victory always has many fathers while a failure or defeat is always an orphan.

There are further rifts within the Ukrainian military. In an interview with Ukraine’s Radio NV, Roman Kostenko, secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence, said that Ukrainian military men in the trenches joke that there are two Ukrainian armies –the AFU led by Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, and the one led by Olexandr Syrsky [commander of Ukraine’s ground forces]. Each military grouping has its own political ambitions and appetite for funds from the Western sponsors of the war. And the more that funding from the United States decreases, the more the internal strife and competition among American vassals in Ukraine will grow.

Zelensky regime reaching out to Trump and the Republicans for support

In addition to meeting with the Biden administration, Zelensky’s people in the United States are trying to establish contacts with Trump’s entourage, according to Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Dubinsky. Commenting on the recent visit of the head of the Office of President Andriy Yermak to Washington, he writes, “Now the real president of Ukraine–named Yermak–is in the United States trying to convince the American government that there is no corruption in Ukraine and to blame the theft committed by him and those from his circle on the scheming of “Kremlin agents”. He is also trying to arrange a telephone conversation between Zelensky and Trump in order to gain support in Congress for aid to Ukraine, which he and Zelensky are plundering”.

Dubinsky’s comment is written to right-wing U.S. journalist Tucker Carlson in the form of an appeal to join forces in ‘exposing’ the corrupt regime in Kyiv. “By joining our forces, we will be able to reveal to the world the truth about the gang of swindlers who captured Ukraine. Reveal the Ugly Truth that Yermak and Zelensky and their associates are trying to hide”.

Even Zelensky’s advisers are admitting to Western media that corruption is rampant. “People are stealing like there’s no tomorrow”, an unnamed advisor to Zelensky is quoted in TIME magazine on November 1st.

Dubinsky was once elected on the ticket of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, but then the paths of the two diverged as Dubinsky began to criticize the president. Recently, this former associate of Zelensky has been charged with high treason and has been sent to a pre-trial detention center for two months.

Similar procedures have been used in the past in Ukraine to purge any opposition, all in the name of ‘fighting for democracy’. Typically in Ukraine, the criminally accused do not receive a verdict in court. Instead, they can wallow in jail for years while awaiting a court’s verdict.

Pervasive corruption and the decisive role by Washington

The continuation by Kyiv of the war against Russia and refusal to negotiate to perpetuate not only a dictatorship in Ukraine but also the pervasive corruption in the country, making it a central part of the lives of all of the country’s citizens. Today, the opportunity to flee abroad (and thereby avoid military conscription) costs between US$7,000 and US$10,000 in bribes. Temporary deferment from conscription for six months costs from US$2,000 to US$5,000. For military service outside the combat zone: US$1,000 to US$2,000 for six months. It goes without saying that those employed in military administrations have formed into a parasitic caste with strong material interests in having the war last forever.

However, the duration of the war depends not only on the actions of Ukraine’s authorities. The decisive role is being played by the U.S. government. Even Ukrainian military leaders and ultranationalists recognize Kiev’s complete dependence on the U.S. Ruslan Onishchenko, ex-commander of the ‘Tornado’, ultranationalist (far right) battalion of the AFU told journalist Volodymyr Panchakin in an interview with he believes Ukraine will be forced into negotiations when and only when it suits U.S. interests. “I am leaning towards the fact that we will be dragged to the negotiating table by the scruff of the neck. By whom? By our allies, let’s call them so. I would not like to call them masters, although we are vassals and slaves” he says, acknowledging that the regime in Kyiv is merely a tool or a vassal of the United States.

We should recall who are these self-declared U.S. vassals. In 2015, Ruslan Onischenko and many other members of the ‘Tornado’ battalion were accused of torture, atrocities, rapes, and sadism which they practiced not only against Donbass residents but sometimes also against their own soldiers. They were sentenced to long prison terms but released in 2022 into the Ukrainian army, to be unleashed against Russian soldiers.

Some Russian political analysts are convinced that the West is merely seeking a temporary respite in the war, enough time to produce more shells and military equipment. Deindustrialization in the West has produced a shortfall in production capacity, unlike in Russia. Once the Western military-industrial complex succeeds in renewing and expanding its production capacity, a new Kyiv regime will once again be pushed into attempts at suicidal revenge against Russia.

Ukrainian voices opposing such a course will continue to be silenced and suppressed. But it is highly unlikely that after all the people of Donbass, Crimea, and the Russian Federation as a whole have been through since 2014, nothing less than Russia’s original goals will be on a negotiation table. The three, principal Russian conditions for peace remain as before: no NATO membership for Ukraine, and the demilitarization and denazification of the country.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/11/ ... ign-fails/

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The West Is Inching Closer to More Insanity in the Baltic Sea
Posted on November 27, 2023 by Conor Gallagher

In the Baltic Sea – home of the twisted wreckage of the Nord Stream pipelines – another pipeline was recently damaged along with telecommunications cables. Western officials are making escalatory statements and are again floating the idea of closing the “NATO lake” to Russian ships, which would likely be viewed by Moscow as an act of war. Onshore, Finland is rapidly militarizing its border with Russia. And a notable Chinese cargo ship is now at the center of the firestorm.

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Over the weekend of October 8th there was an unusual drop in pressure in the Finnish-Estonian Balticconnector gas pipeline. By the morning of October 10th, an investigation had found that the pipeline had ruptured. Telecom cables linking Finland, Estonia and Sweden had also been damaged, as had a Russian telecom cable in the Gulf of Finland.


By October 20th, Finland and Estonia were pointing the finger at the Newnew Polar Bear – a Chinese vessel. The Finnish National Bureau of Investigation produced a large anchor found near the damaged pipeline, which it believes belonged to the 169-meter-long ship and likely broke off as it was dragged across the sea floor. Investigators have not explained a theory for how exactly the anchor damaged telecom cables on opposite sides of the pipeline and broke off at the Balticconector.


I haven’t been able to track down an exact distance between the Balticconnector and the telecom cables, but Finnish telecom operator Elisa told Reuters that the distance between the two was “significant.”

Nonetheless, speculation is that damaging the pipeline and cables would have been hard to do without knowing. According to Insurance Marine News:

It seemed unlikely-to-impossible that the crew could have been unaware of this incident, as the event would have slowed the ship dramatically and involuntarily. If the anchor had fallen accidentally and it had hit the gas line, it could have caused severe damage to the pipe. If the anchor had been stuck to the seabed, it would not have passed unnoticed because the speed would have slowed and the ship would have tilted.

The Finnish daily Helsingin Sanomat wrote on Oct. 23rd that the Newnew Polar Bear stopped in bad weather 1.4 nautical miles from the gas pipeline for about eight minutes before continuing on.

Images of the Newnew missing an anchor were soon circulating:

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Newnew Shipping Co. has been silent on the matter. Meanwhile, Finland and Estonia have formally submitted a legal notice to China for cooperation as part of their ongoing investigation. Beijing has promised its full cooperation, although it’s possible China might not be too eager to assist Estonia, which is allowing Taiwan to set up a government office in Tallinn. The Estonian FM recently doubled down on that decision, declaring that the country’s goal is to cooperate “with like-minded partners, mainly our transatlantic allies.”

Accusations have already been flying of a plot by the Russians and Chinese since the Newnew sails under the Hong Kong flag and had a Northern Sea Route sailing permission issued by the General Administration of the Northern Sea Route addressed to Torgmoll, a Russian-registered company with offices in Moscow and Shanghai. While this has been treated by some as some sort of smoking gun, it’s simply because of a joint project of two Chinese companies – the international shipping line Hainan Yangpu Newnew Shipping Co and cargo agent Torgmoll. Russia’s state-owned Rosatom also provides information and navigation support for the newly established container transportation service via the Northern Sea Route between China and Russia.

Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at London’s Royal United Services Institute, told RFE/RL the following:

Whether this incident was intentional or not, it’s something that both Russia and China can benefit from. Even if the scale may be small, it once again diverts NATO’s attention and resources away from other global focal points.

Russia has denied any involvement and China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning recently said this on the issue:

We hope relevant parties will follow the principles of being objective, fair, just and professional and find out what happened soon. China stands ready to provide necessary assistance in accordance with international law.

Interestingly, there is much more significance to the Newnew Polar Bear than just its alleged involvement in the incident with the pipeline and communication cables. From Maritime Executive:

In another demonstration of the efforts to expand shipping along Russia’s Northern Sea Route, the Chinese-owned containership Newnew Polar Bear (15,950 dwt) became the first to reach the Russian port in Kaliningrad after a six-week passage. The governor of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov hailed the achievement on his Telegram account.

The vessel was acquired earlier this year by a new Chinese shipping company, Hainan Yangpu Newnew Shipping Co., and ushered in the route sailing from St. Petersburg at the beginning of July. She started the return trip from China in late August, reaching Kaliningrad on Tuesday and spending three days on dock. The ship registered in Hong Kong is 554 feet long with a capacity of 1,600 TEU.

She is part of the effort to expand trade between China and Russia and grow traffic along the Northern Sea Route. President Vladimir Putin has ordered the authorities overseeing the route to boost annual shipments to 80 million metric tons in 2024.

“Transport companies plan to make this logistics product permanent. It turns out cheaper and faster than through the Suez Canal,” writes Alikhanov touting the party line on his Telegram account.

So the Newnew was also a symbolic milestone for the increasing Russia-China trade via the North Sea route – part of the Arctic final frontier of the New Cold War where Russia already has an apparent advantage. Moscow says freight turnover in the Arctic Basin rose 4.4 percent in 2022 to 98.5 mln metric tons. From Reuters:

Russia is sending more crude oil produced in the Arctic region to China and India, and at steeper discounts, after Europe slammed its doors shut on Russian supplies last month, trade sources and data show.

Over many years Russia has built up its fleet of icebreakers, ships and submarines. Moscow has also developed mining and oil well operations along its 15,000 miles of Arctic coastline. The US is trying to play catch up by pouring money into existing bases in Alaska and Greenland and establishing four US military bases on Norwegian soil. But Russian economic activity in the Arctic is only expected to increase in coming years, and Moscow considers it an “area of existential importance: where it can use all components in the defense of its interests, including force.

Much of the oil and gas from the Russian arctic used to go to Europe. It’s now headed to China and India. India got its first shipment of Arctic liquefied gas last year, and the country’s energy companies are looking at investing in Russian projects there.

As Andrew Korybko points out, Finland’s efforts to manufacture crises at its Russia border could be seen as part of the West’s efforts to militarize the Arctic confrontation:

Granted, the “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) between NATO and Russia places very real limits on how much pressure can be exerted along this newfound front, but still opening it might be deemed by the bloc’s decisionmakers to be better than keeping it closed in that scenario. In other words, “where one door closes, another opens”, or to be more direct, the end of NATO’s proxy war on Russia via Ukraine could lead to the opening of a less high-stakes but still destabilizing front in Finland.

This outcome would also serve the supplementary purpose of being exploited by the Mainstream Media as the “publicly plausible” pretext for accelerating the Arctic’s militarization. This “final frontier” of the New Cold War is poised to soon be a theater of competition between the US-led West’s Golden Billion and the Sino-Russo Entente due to the Northern Sea Route’s growing role in facilitating East-West trade. Considering this, hyping up the Finnish front like NATO is already doing “kills two birds with one stone”.

The immediate fallout from the damage to the Balticconnector is minor. According to Naval News, the Finnish gas grid is still stable thanks to a massive US-owned floating LNG facility that was moored last year to replace Russian gas. The rupture of the Balticconnector does mean that Finland cannot send gas to Estonia until repairs are made, which could take a few months. The telecom cables have already been repaired.

Bigger picture, however, it will serve as a useful tool to further militarize the Baltic and Arctic.

Before the investigation into the damage of the pipeline and communications cables even settled on the Newnew Polar Bear, Baltic officials had itchy trigger fingers pointed at Russia. For example, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs said the Baltic Sea should be closed to Russia if it is found Moscow was involved. The statement was part of the growing chorus to turn the Baltic into a new front against Russia.

A Baltic Blockade?

The tale of the Newnew Polar Bear could provide more fuel for western hardliners who keep pushing the blockade gambit. The Financial Times reported on Nov. 14 that the EU was actually considering stopping Russian oil ships to check their papers as part of a desperate attempt to enforce the ill-conceived oil price caps. Under that failed plan oil not sold under the $60-a-barrel limit cannot be covered by western insurance for its sea voyage.

Well, western officials admit that “almost none” of Russian crude exports were sold below that price point in October, and the ships are simply using non-western insurance.

Now, EU officials are saying with a straight face that the reason they must stop ships carrying Russian crude is that non-western insurance policies may not be effective in the event of an oil spill. Anonymous EU officials told the Financial Times that the task would fall to Denmark in the narrow Danish Straits and checks would be conducted under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea laws permitting states to to “institute proceedings, including detention of the vessel” given “clear objective evidence” that the vessel poses a threat of environmental damage.

What of the problems with such a plan? The Financial Times notes:

But officials briefed on the proposal say it relies on the capacity of Denmark’s naval authorities to stop and check the tankers, and raises the question of what Copenhagen would do if a ship refused to stop. “Discussions appear to be centred on making life more complicated for Russia and the buyers of its oil,” said Henning Gloystein at Eurasia Group. “If you can make the bureaucracy and risk associated with trading Russian oil a lot more onerous the expectation is buyers will start to demand larger discounts again for their trouble.”

The fact that Russia would almost certainly see such efforts as an act of war goes unmentioned. Roughly 60 percent of Russia’s total seaborne oil exports pass through the Danish straits on its way to international markets, and Moscow’s updated version of the Naval Doctrine of the Russian Federation lists the Baltic Sea and and the Danish Straits as “important areas,” in which the use of force will be available as a last resort after the other options have been exhausted.

After the FT report based on info from unnamed EU officials, Reuters shot it down with other anonymous EU officials saying that there was no such plan in the European Commission’s proposal for tightening the implementation of a price cap on Russia’s crude oil, noting the following:

Three maritime experts said blocking commercial vessels in the Danish straits would be contrary to fundamental rules of the sea, including the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, which governs marine traffic.

Denmark would only have the right to stop a vessel if it posed an obvious threat, they said.

“Denmark has never done anything like that before. Blocking commercial traffic in the Danish straits would come close to a declaration of war,” said Hans Peter Michaelsen, an independent defense analyst.

It’s possible that disagreement over the ship inspection gambit is one of the reasons behind the delay in the European Commission’s delay on its 12th sanctions package. It’s also possible that the FT report was just another in a long line of trial balloons on the possibility of upping the ante in the Baltic.

Estonia, which has a population smaller than Russia’s armed forces, is making noise about causing problems in the Gulf of Finland with Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur recently talking about how Helsinki and Tallinn will integrate their coastal missile defense, which he says would allow the countries to close the Gulf of Finland to Russian warships if necessary. Early this year Estonia was also proposing closing the Gulf of Finland to Russia – effectively blockading Saint Petersburg.

The fact that western governments continue to go back to these ideas increases the odds that at some point they’re going to try something along these lines.

They’re already well on their way to implementing The Center for Strategic and International Studies plan for NATO near-term actions in the Baltic:

Bring Sweden and Finland into NATO. The ratification of these two nations needs to move forward without delay. Elevating them from strong partners to alliance members changes the calculus of a Baltic conflict significantly. The alliance can immediately leverage these two nations to increase strategic depth.

Forward stage capabilities. Mines, anti-submarine capabilities, missile defense, and secure supply and logistics infrastructure should be forward staged across all domains, increasing deterrence.

Increase patrol. A whole-of-government approach from each Baltic nation and its allies is needed to ensure that energy, communications, and sea routes remain secure. This includes Baltic Air Policing, readiness to shift the balance of A2/AD, and the monitoring and protection of maritime infrastructure.

Strengthen command and control. Existing multi-domain command and control should be tested and ready for use. The need for effective command and control will be swift and will require resilient disaggregated nodes, though an eye should also be kept on future capability.

Taken altogether, it’s clear that despite the waning support for Project Ukraine, there will be no winding down of the confrontation between Europe and Russia, and the Baltic is one potential spot for tensions to rise considerably. The Caucasus and Central Asia are other hot spots, as is the Black Sea where attempts continue to sabotage the TurkStream pipeline that transports gas from Russia to Turkiye and onwards to southeastern Europe.

Upon the announcement that Finland and Sweden would join NATO, former Secretary General of the military bloc Anders Fogh Rasmussen proclaimed it was a strategic victory because “If we wish, we can block all entry and exit to Russia through St. Petersburg”.

The caveat to Rasmussen’s pronouncement is that such an effort could very well lead to open war. Is the West crazy enough to try?

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11 ... c-sea.html

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FRED WEIR: APRIL 2022 PEACE DEAL
NOVEMBER 27, 2023 NATYLIESB

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Photo by Nati on Pexels.com
By Fred Weir, Facebook, 11/25/23

From Ivan Katchanovski, of the University of Ottawa, on the peace deal that was all but signed and delivered back in April, 2022. The interview, which I am posting in an English-dubbed version, shows David Arakhamia, head of Zelensky’s parliamentary faction, admitting pretty much what Putin, Gerhard Schröder, Naftali Bennet, and others have claimed: that there was a deal, already initialed, but scuttled after Boris Johnson made a sudden visit to Kyiv. The main Russian demand was Ukrainian neutrality, plus language protections for the Russian-speakers in east Ukraine. A month after the war started, Putin would have settled for that! Well, there it is.

Ivan Katchanovski:

Wow! In his interview, the head of the Zelensky party faction in the Ukrainian parliament & the head of the Ukrainian delegation in the Ukraine-Russia talks confirms that a peace deal could have been reached in spring 2022 if Ukraine agreed to neutrality. He said that Russia was ready to end the war in such case & that Ukrainian neutrality/no NATO membership was the key Russian condition, which also included “denazification,” “Russian language rights,” etc. He also confirmed that Western countries knew everything concerning peace talks and told Zelensky not to sign peace deal and that British PM Johnson during his visit told them to continue fighting. P.S. Subtitles can be automatically translated. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5hrJNGZxYE&t=1s]

Translation of interview by Davyd Arakhamiia, head of Zelensky faction in Ukraine parliament & head of Ukrainian delegation at peace talks with Russia: “They really hoped almost to the last moment that they would force us to sign such an agreement so that we would take neutrality. It was the most important thing for them. They were prepared to end the war if we agreed to, – as Finland once did, – neutrality, and committed that we would not join NATO.

In fact, this was the key point. Everything else was simply rhetoric and political ‘seasoning’ about denazification, the Russian-speaking population and blah-blah-blah…

Moreover, when we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kyiv and said that we would not sign anything with them at all, and let’s just fight.”

Arakhamiia added that Western partners knew about the negotiations and saw drafts of documents, but did not attempt to make a decision for Ukraine, but rather gave advice.

“They actually advised us not to go into ephemeral security guarantees [with the Russians – ed.], which could not have been given at that time at all,” said Arakhamiia, who headed the negotiating delegation.”

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2023/11/fre ... eace-deal/

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How NATO military exercises took place in Lithuania
November 28, 2023
Rybar

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Against the backdrop of increasing tensions in relations between Russia and NATO countries, the activity of alliance troops in the Russian border area is also growing.

And although exercises in the Scandinavian countries, especially in Finland, and the alliance’s increased attention to the Arctic are partly new alarming signals, no one is going to reduce the intensity of training of NATO troops in the Baltics.

Today we will talk about the exercises that were conducted in early to mid-November on the territory of Lithuania .

It is worth noting that the Lithuanians have long linked a number of medium and small military events of other branches of the military and law enforcement agencies to a major international exercise.

Stiprus grifonas 2023
At the Pabrade military training ground (Shvenchensky district, 10 km from the Belarusian border), the long-term international annual exercise Stiprus Grifonas ended . They took place from November 6 to 19 and included a number of parallel events.

After the march of units from places of permanent deployment to conventional combat areas on military training grounds on November 6-7, the process of integration of Lithuanian units and NATO allies took place on November 8-9. In addition, the Lithuanians received a delegation from the US Congress, who observed the joint work of combat units.

On November 9, units of the Armed Forces of Lithuania, the United States, Poland and Portugal worked out issues of interaction during joint assault operations.

It was noted that units of the 15th Mechanized Brigade of the Polish Armed Forces and the 3rd Battalion of the 67th Armored Regiment of the US Armed Forces were involved in the exercise .

The initial phase using military helicopter aviation was accompanied by the transfer of special operations forces of the Lithuanian and German Armed Forces to critical infrastructure facilities. In particular, the television footage included a building located on the territory of the Kruonis pumped storage power plant, located in the Kaišiadorsky district.

It is worth emphasizing that increasingly, not only are a significant number of Polish military personnel participating in exercises, but they are also being given leading roles . On November 16, the exercise was attended by the Ambassador and Military Attaché of Poland in Lithuania.

Viešosios tvarkos atstatymas
On November 8, at the training ground of the Public Security Service (PSS) under the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Lithuania, Rudninkai, located opposite the Voronovsky district of Belarus, exercises Viešosios tvarkos atstatymas (“ Restoring Public Order ”) were held . They were carried out by the Vilnius service unit. During the exercise, the goal was to test the professional skills of the officers of the capital's Special Security Service.

Baltic Viper Strike 2023
On November 9, in the vicinity of Elektrenai, one of the stages of the tactical sniper exercise Baltic Viper Strike 2023 (“Strike of the Baltic Viper 2023”) took place with the participation of military personnel from six countries, including Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Italy, and Belgium. The final stage of the shooting took place at the Gaizhyunai military training ground.

Gintarinė migla 2023
The international annual cyber security exercise Gintarinė migla took place on November 6-10 in Lithuania.

The goal is to train members of the armed forces, government and civilian sectors to be able to assess and manage cyber incidents, identify and properly neutralize them. During this, various scenarios of cyber incidents will be practiced.

More than 300 specialists in the field of information technology and cyber security from Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine are participating in the exercises . Observers from Latvia, the USA, Georgia, Norway, Ukraine, Australia, Taiwan, Japan, Sweden, Germany, and Finland were present.

Gintarinė migla have been organized since 2013, when the operational importance of cyberspace in the broader context of military operations was identified 10 years ago.

Exercises of the Lithuanian Armed Forces Infantry Brigade “Iron Wolf”
Exercises of the reconnaissance platoon of the infantry brigade of the Lithuanian army “Iron Wolf” took place on November 11-12 in the forests of the Alytus region.

From November 13 to 29, management and staff participate in the Schneller Degen 2023 multinational maneuvers in Germany. During the three-week event, members of the Iron Wolf Brigade, together with more than 2,000 troops from 14 NATO and partner countries, will practice planning defensive and offensive operations.

Since 2018, the Lithuanian Armed Forces brigade “Iron Wolf” has been assigned to the 10th German Panzer Division for training purposes and therefore annually participates in exercises organized by the German army.

Saules Kirtis
On November 10-12 , the annual Saules Kirtis exercise of the 6th detachment of volunteer regional security forces of the Lithuanian Armed Forces took place in the Šiauliai, Radviliši and Pakruoi regions during the day and night . Only about 500 military personnel were involved, including 70 soldiers of the Latvian Armed Forces. This was the largest field exercise for Lithuania this year.

During the maneuvers, troops redeployed, established defensive positions, prepared ambushes, destroyed targets of enemy forces, and carried out other defensive operations.

Traditionally, events of this type are held in Lithuania in densely populated residential areas, both during daylight and dark hours. They use simulated ammunition, explosive devices, smoke packs and flares.

Other teachings
In addition, the training cycle for attack UAV operators was completed in Kaunas on November 11 . The main participants were representatives of the paramilitary organization "Lithuanian Riflemen's Union". They were trained for a year.

And on November 16 , the Griausmas 2023 maneuvers for helicopter aviation took place in Siauliai , during which issues of evacuation of the wounded by air in urban conditions were worked out. The aircraft landed at a school stadium in the city center.

In Druskininkai and its surroundings (5 km from the Grodno region of Belarus) on November 18-19, the 109th infantry company of the 1st detachment of volunteer forces of the Lithuanian Armed Forces conducted exercises, during which they practiced the protection of a water body and set up mobile control posts.

Also of interest is the recent meeting in Vilnius of Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda with the commander of NATO Multinational Corps North-East, Lieutenant General Jürgen-Joachim von Sandrart . The parties discussed the progress of implementation of the alliance's regional defense plans agreed upon at the Vilnius summit. At the same time, the subject of discussion was the development of tactical plans and the distribution of troops according to them.

It is impossible not to notice that despite statements from some alliance officials (including its Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg) that NATO is not preparing for war, it is obvious that this is exactly what the alliance’s military personnel are doing. And the countries of Eastern Europe, especially Poland and the Baltics, are the main focus due to their geographical location.

https://rybar.ru/kak-proshli-voennye-uc ... o-v-litve/

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Maidan 10 Years On… The Western-Backed Coup Unleashed Nazism, War and Destruction That Ultimately Exposes Western Fascism

November 25, 2023

Ukraine and Gaza are testaments to the criminality of Western regimes masquerading as democracies.

Ten years on from the Maidan uprising in Kiev, the country of the Ukraine has descended into utter chaos, corruption, fascism, destruction and suffering. And yet the Kiev regime and its Western state supporters have the audacity to call the tragic, bloody morass “a decade of dignity”.

European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen declared this week: “Ten years of dignity. Ten years of pride. Ten years of striving for freedom. The cold November nights of Euromaidan changed Europe forever. The whole country took to the streets and spoke with one voice… The future for which Maidan fought has finally begun. Glory to Ukraine! Long live Europe!”

It is nauseating to hear such bare-faced lies and distortions. “The whole country took the streets”? It was a minority of Nazi ideologues bankrolled by Western powers. “Speaking with one voice”? The Maidan coup leaders murdered and burned opponents to death as in the Odessa pogrom on May 2, 2014, or in the deadly air strike on unsuspecting Lugansk civilians on June 2, 2014.

Bitterly amusing, though, Von Der Leyen inadvertently speaks the truth when she said the Maidan event “changed Europe forever”. It certainly did that, but in an opposite and awful way to her ridiculous, rosy view.

As this excellent documentary film makes clear, when the Western transAtlantic powers couldn’t get their way in dragooning Ukraine into joining the EU-NATO axis, the next step was to orchestrate a violent coup d’état in Kiev.

This week ten years ago, the elected president of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych rejected a vigorously promoted “association agreement” with the EU, preferring instead to orient the country towards closer economic integration with Russia and the Eurasian markets. That decision by the president triggered relatively minor protests in Kiev dubbed the EuroMaidan which began on November 21, 2013.

The rapid escalation of violent protests was obviously fomented and mobilized by external forces: the United States, European Union, the CIA and NATO. It was a repeat of the U.S.-sponsored Orange Revolution in Kiev in 2004 which had failed back then to fully decouple Ukraine from historically close relations with Russia.

A second time around, however, the color revolution process would be more deadly and determined. Three months after the initial street demonstrations and amid mounting organized deadly subversion, the coup was executed on February 20, 2014. President Yanukovych fled the country. A NeoNazi regime seized power and immediately transformed Ukraine into a bastion of anti-Russia hate. World War Two Nazi collaborators were venerated and made public heroes. Russian-speaking people were attacked and lynched. This is all documented, albeit censored out of history by the Western media.

American and European politicians midwifed the birth of a monster. The objective was always to create a fascist Frankenstein terrorist state that would do the Western imperialists’ dirty work of destabilizing Russia. American imperialist ideologues like Zbigniew Brzezinski had touted and written books about Ukraine as the bridgehead for destabilizing Russia. The roots of such intrigue can be traced back to the early CIA recruitment of Ukrainian Nazis in the aftermath of World War Two to harass the Soviet Union.

Joe Biden, who was then the vice president in the Obama administration (2008-16), was intimately responsible for the transmogrification of Ukraine. Along the way, Biden even got his drug-addict playboy son Hunter a lucrative job as an executive in the country’s largest gas company.

Von Der Leyen, who now so absurdly eulogizes Ukraine, was the German minister of Defense during the Maidan coup. Her family’s Nazi past was quite fitting for the role she played in pumping NATO weapons and training to build up Ukrainian paramilitaries for launching terror attacks on the Russian-speaking regions in the weeks, months and years after 2014.

CIA Director John Brennan was also fully involved in orchestrating what would become a civil war in Ukraine between the far-right Kiev regime forces and the ethnic Russian population of Donbass. Fortunately for the people of Crimea, they seceded in March 2014 and joined the Russian Federation. The Peninsula was spared the genocidal violence that the NATO-backed regime launched against the Donbass. It was that systematic aggression (largely ignored by the Western media) that finally propelled the Russian military intervention in February 2022.

The Maidan events 10 years ago are a case study of how the U.S. and its Western allies infiltrated and destroyed a country with their geopolitical objectives.

The culmination of the machinations resulted in a full-blown proxy war against Russia. NATO has failed in its criminally reckless plan to defeat nuclear power Russia. A sizable portion of formerly Ukrainian territory is now part of the Russian Federation. Some would argue it has rightfully reunited with Mother Russia owing to deep historical and cultural ties that preceded Ukrainian independence in 1991.

Meanwhile, up to 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in nearly two years of conflict against superior Russian forces. The Kiev regime is floundering from corruption and internecine disputes as its Western patrons run out of taxpayer money to keep propping it up. Puppet president Vladimir Zelensky is despised by many Ukrainian citizens for his betrayal of peace promises and for selling off the country’s natural resources to Western corporations. The country is a vastly indebted shambles.

In reality, the Kiev regime is a NeoNazi rump reich that somehow manages to persist (so far anyway) through draconian repression against popular dissent or criticism. It has shut down opposition political parties and media, as well as persecuting the Orthodox Church as “agents of the Kremlin”. You could hardly make up an instance of a more vile regime.

And yet Western autocrats like Frau Von Der Leyen override any democratic principle to insist on lauding Ukraine as an exemplar of Western democracy which is entitled to EU and NATO membership.

Elsewhere, U.S. President Joe Biden and America’s European allies (elitist regimes one and all) have been exposed as morally bankrupt over their complicit support for Israel’s genocide in Gaza. It is a stunning exposure in a sudden compressed episode of horrific violence over the past six weeks.

Nonetheless, it is perfectly consistent with the West’s complicity in the genocidal conflict that it unleashed in Ukraine over a longer timeframe. Ultimately, the Western imperialist states are the evil root of both.

When Von Der Leyen proclaims that Ukraine’s decade of “dignity”, that is disaster, represents the “future of Europe”, it is something to behold with contempt. It is also deeply chilling. Her statement shows the despicable malevolence and fascism of such Western so-called leaders.

Ukraine and Gaza are testaments to the criminality of Western regimes masquerading as democracies.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/ ... n-fascism/

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Scholz - go away
November 28, 16:31

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The Bundestag incendiary called on Scholz to resign and announce new elections before things get worse.

(Video at link.)

The move by the AfD deputy comes against the backdrop of a severe economic crisis in Germany and a collapse in the ratings of the current government, when 2/3 of Germans are “for some reason” dissatisfied with them.
Of course, Scholz will sit as long as he can.

PS. According to Bild research, Scholz has slipped from 2nd place in popularity in Germany to 17th. Sanctions are working.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8793147.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Nov 29, 2023 1:13 pm

Avdeevka: progress in the fortified city
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/29/2023
Original Article: Vzglyad

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By the end of the day, on November 25, Russian assault units had occupied the famous southern industrial zone of Avdeevka, under the control of Ukrainian units since 2014. Without a doubt, this advance by Russian troops is a milestone, but the Avdeevka issue is far from resolved. The industrial zone of the city has been and remains an important symbol in the Ukrainian military conflict. For almost ten years, only snipers have been able to see the pipes and ice from their Donetsk scopes. Throughout this time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have covered the old workshops and warehouses with asphalt and the fortified area has been rebuilt. This area was considered impregnable.

However, as a result of the offensive actions of Russian troops, in recent days the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine located in the industrial zone have lost practically all contact with each other, being isolated in bunkers. In the end, they have only two cellars left in the entire fortified area. The rest have retreated to the towns closest to the urban agglomeration.

The opponent did not expect assault actions by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in this area, since it was considered impossible to overcome. kyiv was confident that the plan of the Russian troops in the Avdeevka area was to surround the entire fortified area. The Ukrainian Armed Forces began sending reserves to the flanks to prevent the cutoff of supplies to Avdeevka through the two supply lines that are still available between the towns of Orlovka and Ocheretino. At the same time, all headquarters and support forces were withdrawn from Avdeevka several weeks ago and some artillery and heavy equipment was moved towards Konstantinovka.

This area is located in the vicinity of the Yasinovataya crossing, the intersection between the main routes connecting the Donetsk urban agglomeration with Gorlovka and later with Lugansk. For all these years, driving on this road has been dangerous and problematic precisely because of the actions of Ukrainian troops in the Avdeevka industrial zone. This complicated logistics and made travel to Lugansk and Russia through the shortest and most common route for the population impossible. Donetsk is only six kilometers away and the industrial zone is covered with Ukrainian artillery positions to bombard Donetsk, Yasinovataya and Gorlovka.

The loss of the Avdeevka industrial zone is a serious blow to the defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Your units will now have to retreat to the next fortified positions. Obviously, the industrial zone was more prepared for long-term defense than the other positions, but Russian troops will have to consolidate their new positions and regroup.

The next Ukrainian defensive positions are located just northwest of the industrial zone, next to the cemetery. It is also a fortified height around the Vinogradsky district and residential area. Ukrainian troops will have to be expelled from there now. If these positions were lost, the units would have to retreat to the area of ​​apartment buildings. The Jimik microdistrict, which has long become a target for Russian artillery and aviation, will be an important defense position for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Said microdistrict covers the steppe west of Avdeevka.

The occupation of the Avdeevka industrial zone does not, in itself, guarantee a decisive and direct advance on Avdeevka. The situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city and in the entire fortified area is now significantly worse than it was in Artyomovsk, where the fortifications were better. The distances are also similar, around 10 kilometers, as Avdeevka is also a city spread along the railway tracks with two industrial zones on the outskirts.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will also have the opportunity to modify tactics for further advances: assault operations in different directions to press the flanks and surround the entire fortified area. This variable prevents Ukrainian troops from building a more effective defense. Currently, for example, Russian troops continue to increase the zone of control in the northwest by crossing railroad tracks and securing the heights near the edges of the city. This partially explains the inefficiency of sending large reserves to Avdeevka. At least five brigades have been taken there, which were withdrawn from the Zaporozhie front. Furthermore, all these reserves are exhausted and poorly motivated, while in Artyomovsk, the Ukrainian troops had several thousand fresh and highly motivated people.

By the way, estimates about the Avdeevka garrison vary. The most reasonable figure is 11,000-15,000 people throughout the outer perimeter, supplies and associated artillery. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine maintain their capacity to supply ammunition and other supplies for a while, then it will not be possible to occupy Avdeevka for several months. Battles for the city could extend into spring next year unless Russian troops can completely lay siege to the fortified area, which is also feasible. But it is precisely to prevent that that the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being used. Hence, the occupation of the industrial zone in the southeast of the Avdeevka fortified area is an important tactical and emotional success that has been expected for a long time, but it is not the magic key that opens the gates of the city. There is still a lot of work to do.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/29/avdee ... rtificada/

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What's happening in the Northeast Military District zone: chronicle for November 28
November 28, 2023
Rybar

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The consequences of bad weather continue to affect the reduction in the intensity of hostilities along the entire line of contact. Near Avdeevka , Russian troops are consolidating their previously occupied positions and preparing for a further attack on the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Meanwhile, in the Kherson direction, Ukrainian marines again tried, under the cover of artillery and drones, to advance in a small forest south of the village of Krynki . Russian troops are conducting concentrated fire on identified enemy units.

In the Vremyevsky sector, units of the Russian Armed Forces are fighting local battles on the approaches to Staromayorsky . At the same time, Russian troops are trying to advance to tactical heights on the southern flank of Bakhmut . In turn, the Ukrainian command is transferring additional forces to the areas, trying to maintain their occupied positions.

Ukrainian formations continue to strike at front-line settlements in Russia. In the DPR, the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk came under massive fire : six people were injured. In the Zaporozhye region, the enemy launched missiles at a kindergarten and a hospital in Tokmak : casualties were reported among medical staff.

The situation on the front line and combat operations

In the Starobelsky direction, clashes continue in the Kremensky sector . Ukrainian formations tried to occupy a stronghold of the Russian Armed Forces in the Serebryansky forestry area , but were unsuccessful. Meanwhile, on the Tor ledge, the parties are conducting positional battles.


In the Soledar direction, fierce fighting continues on the southern flank of Bakhmut . The Russian Armed Forces are trying to take advantageous positions at local heights. According to some reports, Russian units were able to recapture two strong points from the enemy.


In the Avdeevsky sector, military personnel of the Russian Armed Forces, with the support of artillery and aviation, have been conducting offensive operations on both the northern and southern flanks since early morning. At the same time, Russian troops are consolidating on previously occupied lines. However, the current configuration of the front in this area remains unknown.

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In the Vremyevsky sector, Russian units continue to fight on the approaches to Staromayorsky . The Ukrainian command is transferring reserve forces to the front line, trying to prevent further advance of the Russian Armed Forces.


In the Orekhovsky sector, due to bad weather, the parties are not conducting active hostilities, and aerial reconnaissance is also difficult. At the same time, last evening, Russian troops managed to occupy one of the forest belts near Rabotino and destroy several units of armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including HMMWV ( Humvee ) and Kozak armored fighting vehicle . In addition, artillery duels continue along the entire front line.

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In the Kherson direction, on the night of November 28, the command of the Katran group once again deployed assault groups to consolidate in the forest adjacent to Krynki . The night before, enemy troops tried to take positions in a small forest south of the village, but came under Russian artillery fire. In the morning, the wounded were evacuated to a makeshift hospital, equipped in a warehouse on the northern outskirts of Krynoki, and then transferred to the right bank via Frolov Island . Nevertheless, new assault groups arrived to replace them and, under the cover of artillery and drones, again moved towards the forest, trying to gain a foothold in the depths of the forest belts.

Despite the losses and the fact that the Ukrainian formations were unable to advance deeper, the enemy was firmly entrenched on the left bank of the Dnieper. This was facilitated by the active support of artillery and drones, which continues unabated even now, as well as the tactics of keeping silent about the problems that prevailed in the Dnepr group. Some time ago we wrote about what military personnel faced in the Kherson region. Unfortunately, some issues remain relevant today. And the lack of competent and adequate management is one of these problems, which leads to unnecessary losses of personnel, like those that Two Majors wrote about .

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas

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Ukrainian formations continue to shell the border areas of the Belgorod region . In the Grayvoronsky urban district, the village of Poroz came under fire : one residential building received minor damage, there were no casualties. In addition, an enemy UAV attacked an infrastructure communications facility in Mokraya Orlovka . Residents of Dronovka also reported shelling .

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The enemy continues to strike at the Donetsk agglomeration. Significant destruction was recorded in the Kievsky district of Donetsk, and in the neighboring Kuibyshevsky district, six people were injured as a result of the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Petrovsky district was also under fire . In the Nikitovsky district of Gorlovka, one person was injured. In addition, Ukrainian formations dropped ammunition from UAVs in the settlements of Ozeryanovka and Yasinovataya . And in Mariupol, air defense systems destroyed two S-200 missiles. Despite this, local authorities reported that two people were injured as a result of the GP explosion.

In addition to military operations, the enemy is conducting merciless shelling of residential areas of the Zaporozhye region . Six missiles were fired at the city of Tokmak. Some of the targets were intercepted by air defense systems, but, unfortunately, several missiles hit the territory of a kindergarten and a local hospital: Russian Senator Dmitry Rogozin reported casualties among medical staff.

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Ukrainian formations continue to conduct intensive shelling on the left bank of the Kherson region . Today, Gola Pristan , Cossack Camps , Kardashinka , Kakhovka and Korsunka were hit by fire . Arrivals in Novaya Kakhovka were also recorded : one civilian was killed, civilian infrastructure was damaged. In addition, during the day the enemy shelled the Gornostaevsky District , as a result of which some settlements were temporarily left without power supply. Damage was also recorded at the Kakhovka 330 kV substation , which plays a key role in the region’s power supply. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been striking the facility over the past two days.

Political events
About the possible purposes of Maia Sandu’s trip to Kyiv

After the visit of Moldovan President Maia Sandu to Kiev, alarming rumors began to multiply in the Moldovan media. The first rumor is related to the fact that Sandu allegedly wants to involve Azov militants in a forceful purge of the opposition in Chisinau . True, given the serious losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the endless mobilization in Ukraine, it is unlikely that Kiev is ready to scatter selected troops for the political needs of a neighboring state. Moreover, in Moldova today there is no coordinated opposition ready to challenge the authorities. And the country is under external control, which is called the “ EU civilian mission ”: European officials are present in all government bodies, including in the security sector . In particular, in June, the Austrian government sent about 40 police and military personnel to Chisinau to “protect” the country from attempts to “destabilize.” Nevertheless, presidential and parliamentary elections await Moldova in 2024 , and the just held local elections have clearly shaken the position of Sandu’s team, so a tightening of the policy of intolerance towards dissidents is quite expected.

The second rumor is a possible military operation in Transnistria , which may have been coordinated by the new British Foreign Secretary David Cameron during his recent visits to Kiev, Odessa and Chisinau. The threat of the forceful reintegration of Transnistria has been discussed for a long time: units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already concentrated on the borders, NATO reconnaissance is underway in the region , and threats to the Russian peacekeeping contingent in the unrecognized republic have also been made by Zelensky. Major failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front, as well as the active pumping of weapons into Moldova and constant military exercises in the country can intensify the Transnistrian scenario. At least, Western curators are clearly preparing Moldova for such a development of events.

About the poisoning of Marianna Budanova

Today, a number of Ukrainian media actively disseminated news about the alleged poisoning of the wife of the head of the State Intelligence Directorate, Kirill Budanov . Later, the department itself confirmed this information. It is difficult to say whether this poisoning actually took place, but the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate has already established itself as a “ branch of Hollywood ” throughout the conflict. The plot itself with the non-lethal poisoning of unwanted persons is not a new invention, which is nevertheless actively used by Western intelligence services in different parts of the world. Suffice it to recall several Russian oppositionists who miraculously survived each attempt at “poisoning” (and some characters survived “poisoning” several times). Perhaps in this way Budanov once again reminds of his existence. Perhaps the storm raging on the Black Sea coast does not allow sending the next group of GUR to slaughter in Crimea, because the Ukrainian DRG not only needs to get to the peninsula, it also needs to photograph the flag .

What is behind Maryana Bezugla’s criticism of the highest military command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

In Ukraine, a scandal continues to flare up related to criticism of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny by the people’s deputy from the ruling Servant of the People party Maryana Bezugla . Let us recall that Bezuglaya previously published a series of posts on her Facebook profile criticizing the Ukrainian military leadership, in particular due to the lack of a combat plan for the next year. For these statements, a number of colleagues from the ruling party accused the people's deputy of provocation, and also hinted at her possible resignation.

What is much more interesting in this whole story is that a few days before the publication of Bezugla’s sensational posts, the leader of the Servant of the People faction, David Arakhamia , also announced that the Ukrainian command did not have a plan for conducting combat operations for 2024. And this already indicates that Bezugla’s publications are not her initiative, but a reflection of the discord that reigns in Zelensky’s team. Let us remind you that the conflict between Zaluzhny and Zelensky has been under discussion for about a month now. The OP initially denied information about any disagreements between the president and the commander-in-chief, but after a while Zelensky himself advised Zaluzhny to “deal with war, not politics.”

Perhaps the OP thus tested the pen as part of a campaign to discredit Zaluzhny: on the one hand, this made it possible to test the reaction of Ukrainian society to such criticism, and on the other, in case of failure, it was possible to demonstrate the cohesion of the military and political leadership of Ukraine, simultaneously using Bezuglaya in as a lightning rod.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

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Politico Just Dumped On Zelensky

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ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 29, 2023

It’s clear that the mood in DC has radically shifted from one of unwavering solidarity with Zelensky to contempt, ridicule, and scathing criticisms.

American policymakers and those who influence them are known to rely heavily on DC-based Politico for guidance, which is why it’s such a big deal that this outlet just dumped on Zelensky in their feature story about him as part of this year’s “POLITICO 28: Class of 2024” series. He’s described as “Dreamer No. 1” in the world, which is arguably an allusion to what one of his unnamed senior advisors told Time Magazine in late October about him having messianic delusions of maximum victory over Russia.

The mockery continues all throughout the piece, with the next example being when Politico wrote that Zelensky “cajoled, shamed and begged nations” into helping his own. This description aligns with what his critics across the world have been saying, namely that he’s aggressively demanding a never-ending redistribution of their fellow taxpayers’ hard-earned funds to his country. Politico then took another swipe at him by writing that he’s an “entertainer who became a president after playing one on TV.”

The purpose in suggesting that he’s way in over his head is to draw attention to how difficult it’ll be for “Dreamer No. 1” in the world to manage the panoply of problems that next year is expected to bring. They wrote that “the world is distracted”, “Ukrainians are exhausted” by “Russia’s brutal meat-grinder”, Europeans are poised to “curb their generosity of spirit” for his people due to a “cost-of-living crunch”, and “EU politicians are getting skittish about the likely cost to their bottom lines” of letting Ukraine join.

In the face of this unprecedented pressure, “Zelenskyy has moved from pleading with Western countries for help to lecturing them — and that hasn’t landed quite as successfully as his more uplifting orations”, they wrote. As proof of this, Politico reminded everyone about how “the British defense secretary and the U.S. national security adviser separately warned that Ukraine ought to show more ‘gratitude’ to its allies” during summer’s NATO Summit. They then went out with a bang in the following way:

“To hold a ballot in a time of war, Zelenskyy — with the parliament’s agreement — would need to change Ukraine’s constitution. And the prospect raises major questions about democratic legitimacy: Most of the country’s television channels are heavily government-controlled, censorship is rife, millions of Ukrainians who fled the war remain abroad, and tens of thousands of soldiers would be voting in battle zones. And that’s before the cost of organizing and securing a wartime vote is considered.”

Their concluding sentence ominously hinted that “Dreamer No. 1” in the world is doomed to fail when they editorialized that “Those are huge, if not intractable, problems — the question is whether Zelenskyy can pull it off, and at what cost.” Reflecting on their article, it’s clear that the mood in DC has radically shifted from one of unwavering solidarity with Zelensky to contempt, ridicule, and scathing criticisms as the Ukrainian Conflict begins to wind down, which bodes very badly for his political future.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/politico ... n-zelensky

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Ex NATO Chief’s Latest Hair Brain Plan for Ukraine? Can’t Make This S*** Up

Martin Jay

November 28, 2023

NATO’s 75th birthday is coming around soon, with celebrations planned for July of next year in Washington. Yet the organisation has a bit of a problem with the party and celebrations.

When people reach the ripe old age of 75, there is usually a tendency to slow down and take things easier; often there’s a lack of cohesion, sentences often aren’t completed, delusion and incompetence become more noticeable if not plain idiocy on a scale not previously seen. In some cases, relatives might even talk of assisted suicide to put the old bugger out of his misery, with some even as going as far to talk about being “brain dead”.

NATO’s 75th birthday is coming around soon, with celebrations planned for July of next year in Washington. Yet the organisation has a bit of a problem with the party and celebrations. What’s there to celebrate with Ukraine more or less a war that even die-hard Republicans in America admit is a war which cannot be won? 75 years old, NATO is looking more and more like an outdated institution which, if anything, is going to fall on its sword at some point when the world wakes up and realises what a con it is.

But the old git has to be kept alive at all costs, largely to keep up appearances for new members and also to protect the reputations of western leaders who have staked theirs on the war in Ukraine being a righteous win.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen is a lucky man. The former NATO chief is fortunate enough to actually not look as stupid as he really is and is at a period in his so-called career where he can say patently idiotic things and it doesn’t matter. But his latest idea – to give Ukraine some kind of token, half-cocked NATO membership – is braindead nonsense on a whole new scale which we haven’t seen before.

NATO Neanderthals are desperate to find a solution in Ukraine so they can have their party in July and not look completely stupid while they watch the fireworks and do the idiotic arms-crossed hand shakes. You know the sort of thing.

Ukraine has to be fixed. The war has to be presented to a gullible western audience as victory, sort of, to NATO. Given that the whole thing is over and the Ukrainian army is such a shower of shite, one wonders how NATO folk are going to pull off such a stunt.

Rasmussen seems to think he has a plan with giving Ukraine a token NATO membership, overlooking the somewhat incongruous fact that it was the threat of Ukraine becoming a NATO member which kicked things off the first place. His thinking – don’t laugh – is that if Ukraine was in NATO then Russia would be too afraid to attack it. That is to say, Russia, which controls about a third of the country in the east would be reluctant to attack the western part currently under control of Ukrainian army. And this move would show Russia that Ukraine can join NATO. According to the Guardian, the “former secretary general says partial membership would warn Russia it cannot stop Ukraine joining the alliance”.

It seems an incredibly juvenile gesture, but the logic behind the thinking is fatally flawed for at least four key reasons, in my view.

The idea just writes off all of the territory that Russia has taken and expects Zelensky to swallow this, despite the Ukrainian president stating on many occasions this is not negotiable.
Russia would not be afraid to strike western Ukraine simply because the country was sort of in NATO. The bigger worry here is the escalation from NATO would put it under the spotlight to retaliate, which it wouldn’t.
NATO membership comes with a few rules, namely only democracies get to join the club. NATO does not do state building and so allowing one of the most corrupt countries in the world into its elite club might lower the bar for other countries like Bosnia or Georgia who are candidate members. It can’t take in gangsters and not expect its public image to slip even further.
Allowing Ukraine in, takes away a key – if not the only – bargaining chip the west has, which is to guarantee to Putin that Ukraine won’t join NATO. With Ukraine in NATO and representing an even bigger threat, it raises the stakes even higher and gives Russia no real reason not to invade.
Like absolutely everything that NATO and the Biden administration has done since day one of the Russian invasion, this is yet another gross miscalculation on the part of NATO elites. Are they banking on Joe Biden not even knowing which country he is in, being unable to even say one word through his rapidly developing senility by the time July comes around? Or that Zelensky himself is the real problem as he wouldn’t ever accept giving up the Donbas or Crimea and so therefore has to be replaced.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/ ... t-make-up/

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Coup Poker: Update

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[[On November 24th, Zelenskiy fired four deputy commanders of the National Guard of Ukraine (NGU), which is the home of many from the ultranationalist and neofascist battalions created ‘from below’ at the start of Kiev’s ‘anti-terrorist operation’ in April 2014 and are now subordinated to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. He appointed three to replace them (www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2023/11/24/7430272/). The NGU’s commander was replaced in July. (https://strana.news/news/451312-ukazy-z ... rdiej.html). Just a week before firing the NGU deputy commanders, he fired the head of Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service or SVR (https://strana.news/news/450761-aleksan ... vedki.html). All these personnel changes across the siloviki departments could very well represent nervousness and an attempt to keep these institutions so off balance that they cannot decide on participating or organize against Zelenskiy.]]

[[In a November 25th interview the head of the parliamentary majority group of deputies in the Rada from Zelenskiy’s party ‘Servants of the People’ and head of the Ukrainian delegation of negotiators in Gomel and Istanbul that concluded a preliminary agreement on a peace agreement initialed by Putin and Zelenskiy, David Arakhamiya gave away the store regarding the war decision-making. He effectively has confirmed conclusively what then Israel PМ Naftali Bennet, the former Turkish foreign minister, former chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schroeder, and Ukrainian reporting have long indicated: Ukraine was ready to sign the agreement with reservations about the Russians’ trustworthiness, but UK PM Boris Johnson’s surprise vist to Kiev and demand that Ukraine not sign any agreement with Moscow scuttled the agreement. The interview also conclusively shows that NATO expansion was the war’s cause, as Arakhamiya disclosed that the Russians’ main demand in fact was Ukrainian neutrality and all other demands were a formality for appearances’ sake (https://1plus1.ua/mosejcuk/videos/1-sez ... -2022-roci; www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_ughfLpMfQ&ab_ ... 0%A1%D0%A0 and www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2023/11/24/7430282/). This undermines Zelenskiy’s (and the Western) narrative that Putin is a territory hungry totalitarian imperialist and terrorist and that the Kremlin had specific defensive-security goals for its decision to invade in February 2022. For our analysis this disclosure raises more important points. It raises grave questions as to why Zelenskiy and his circle lacked the courage, wisdom, and statesmanship to choose peace over war for the sake of their countrymen. It is likely to increase resentment of the West in that some, as one paper has suggested, raise suspicions that the West effectively forced Zelenskiy to accept war not by the blandishments of weapons so much as the threat that the West would refuse to sign any agreement with Russia regarding the provision of security guarantees for Kiev, which would have made any Ukrainian agreement with Moscow far mor risky and thus more difficult to garner support among Ukrainians (https://strana.news/news/451345-zhuravl ... -hoda.html). The disclosure also reveals that there is indeed a split within the Zelenskiy camp despite Arakhamiya’s claim to the contrary. He in fact contradicted this claim in the interview when he said that if any treaty were to be agreed upon with Moscow, it would have to be submitted to a referendum before ratification by the Rada, since in lieu of the people’s voice the deputies would be at each others’ throats (https://1plus1.ua/mosejcuk/videos/1-sez ... -2022-roci and https://strana.news/news/451315-vsjo-ru ... amija.html). This reveals the true state of affairs within the Maidan regime: growing division driven by intensifying desperation.]]

[[On November 26th, Rada deputies from Zelenskiy’s Servants of the People party, including Rada Defense and Security Committee Deputy Chair Maryana Bezhulaya, called for the resignation of Gen. Zalyuzhniy and the top military command. They charged the former with failing to submit a military plan for 2024. One deputy complained that the only plan seems to be to mobilize an additional 20,000 bodies to fight according to the present, presumably in the deputy’s eyes, failed scenario, she called on the military leadership to resign (https://strana.news/news/451402-itohi-6 ... raine.html and https://strana.news/news/451432-valerij ... hlaja.html).]]

[[On November 27th Ukraine Security and Defence Council Secretary Danilov announced ostensible intelligence indicated that the Kremlin had activated a network of “sleeper” spies inside Ukraine’s state institutions, including the SBU. Russian agents were said to be assigned “to drive a wedge between the political and military leadership of Ukraine as well as to incite anti-government sentiment among the population” (https://strana.news/news/451456-chto-pr ... -dnja.html). Putting aside the fact that there may be Russian agents inside Ukraine’s state apparatus, the surprising public declaration seemed out of place and was either an attempt to cover for the rising civil-military and socio-political tensions surrounding the collapsing front and/or possible preparation for charging some with collusion and collaboration with Putin’s agents.]]

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In Late November, Germany’s Bild published an article indicating increasing discontent among rank-an-file Ukrainian soldiers with with Kiev’s generals, government and president Zelenskiy. Generals are reproached for: “lack of foresight;” broken communications between adjacent frontline detachments; insufficient provision for soldiers are voiced to the government; the need for soldiers themselves to pay transport repairs, fuel, drones, spare parts, food, and rent for housing where they are bivouacked. One soldier told the publication: “We are defending our country, risking our lives, and, in the end, we pay for equipment, rent, meals and car repairs ourselves. What happens to all the money coming from abroad? We feel more and more abandoned by the government” (https://strana.news/news/451481-sredi-u ... o-smi.html). The continuation of such a state of affairs cannot end well for the Maidan regime.

(much more at link.)

https://gordonhahn.com/2023/11/27/coup- ... s-updated/

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ARMCHAIR WARLORD: UNDERESTIMATED THE RUSSIANS
NOVEMBER 28, 2023 NATYLIESB

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By Armchair Warlord, Twitter (X), 11/25/23

With news breaking that the Ukrainians are moving towards a final, total mobilization against Russia – and me regretting I didn’t post about it yesterday when I had a hunch on the matter – something occurred to me. I’ve underestimated the Russians before. What if I still am?

The Russians, after all, could quite easily attack and seize huge swathes of Ukraine via high-speed maneuver. The Ukrainians have a thousand kilometers of lightly-defended and barely-fortified left flank running from Kharkov to Lvov. The Russians could crash through it quite easily if they actually wanted to and they’ve always had forces in reserve that could do it – these days a huge mass of them. As things currently stand Russian special forces roam at will in Sumy and Chernigov, preying on the thinly-stretched garrisons.

But, no, the Russians have consolidated their position in Ukraine into a convenient stretch of highly defensible terrain in the country’s east and then just sat there, for over a year now, killing Ukrainian soldiers at horrifyingly lopsided ratios. When they can defend, they defend. When they must attack to keep the pressure on, they find some Ukrainian salient and turn it into a shooting gallery. Where they don’t want to push the front up, they just mow the lawn and pull back – they have to have taken the same line of strongholds east of Kupyansk a dozen times by now, each time pulling back and letting the AFU flood the same old trenches with new recruits again.

Ukrainian casualties have been so astronomical they’re now deep into desperate measures trying to keep soldiers in the ranks, drafting women and looking at emptying out the small pool of privileged young students to feed the front. When the war is over, Ukraine will be a broken society in which most of the people willing to fight for an independent Ukrainian state – and a Western-oriented Ukrainian national identity separate from Russia – will be dead.

What if that’s the point? Objectively speaking, if the Russian plan was simply to kill as many Ukrainian combatants as possible, as efficiently as possible, with as little risk to themselves as possible, then they’re doing it. The Russians know full well that the current iteration of Ukrainian national identity is implacably hostile to Russia and they cannot coexist with it – and they’re very coldly killing anyone and everyone willing and able (or coercible) to bear arms in its defense on the battlefield. In their manic drive to expel the Russians and fight for every inch of their land, the Ukrainian leadership is facilitating this.

Is this genocide? No. The Russians are fighting armed combatants. It’s no violation of the law of war to inflict horrific casualties on the enemy, and any comparison with the ongoing war in Gaza will show that the Russians have been meticulous to avoid civilian casualties. Will it have the effect of breaking the Ukrainian nation at the end of the war? Yes.

Is it an ugly thought that the Russians may very well have planned it this way? Very.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2023/11/arm ... -russians/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:13 am

Negotiation and the territorial question
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 11/30/2023

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In his commented interview, David Arajamia, leader of the parliamentary faction of Zelensky's party and head of the Ukrainian delegation that negotiated for weeks with the Russian Federation a resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in March 2022, mentioned both the Russian demands to reach an agreement as the factors that had influenced Kiev's decision to break off the negotiations. From the experience of those who participated in the entire process, Arajamia mentioned the issue of NATO and the demand for neutrality as the main reason for the Russian military intervention and also a priority demand for the Russian delegation. What's more, in his opinion, the rest of the demands were just talk.

On the other side of the negotiation table, always close to Arajamia, was Vladimir Medinsky, former Minister of Culture of the Russian Federation and leader of the delegation sent by Moscow. Medinsky, who was ridiculed minutes after prematurely announcing an agreement in principle with the Ukrainian delegation, has remained silent for months about what happened in Istanbul and in the previous meetings that made that summit possible, although on this occasion he wanted to respond to his Ukrainian counterpart. In Arajamia's story, which suggests that Russia was willing to return to the borders of February 24, 2022, any territorial demand was completely absent, which does reappear in the response of Vladimir Medinsky, who recalls that, as stated by that day, “among the unconditional demands on our part was the recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, and then the independence of the Donbass republics.”

As has been insisted over the years, the Ukrainian conflict has three different but directly linked aspects: a factor of civil war between Donbass and Ukraine that had to be resolved through Minsk, a growing conflict between Kiev and Moscow and the contradictions between the Russian Federation and the United States fundamentally as a result of NATO's expansion to the east. After the experience of the Minsk process, in which Ukraine sabotaged, as it now openly admits, any political progress without the intention of fulfilling its commitments, it is implausible to believe that Russia would not seek to resolve the territorial issue between the two countries. Getting Ukraine to officially accept the loss of Crimea, territory that, according to the “Crimean declaration,” kyiv had announced it would seek to recover by all means at its disposal, can by no means be considered a minor issue. Nor was it at that time to get Ukraine to renounce Donbass, whose independence had been recognized on February 22, 2022 by Vladimir Putin. That recognition implied the commitment to defend those Republics, something that Russia could not renounce just a month later and after having captured part of those territories previously under the control of kyiv.

In those weeks, Republican troops supported by Russians – the Russian regular army was then focused on Kiev, Kharkiv and advancing from Crimea in the south, with the DPR and LPL armies bearing the brunt of the fighting in Donbass – had managed to advance fundamentally in two directions. Virtually without fighting after the Ukrainian withdrawal, the Lugansk People's Republic captured places that were especially significant due to the importance they had acquired in the war, such as Stanitsa Luganskaya and Schastie. In Donetsk, with the Ukrainian part much more fortified, advances were smaller, although the approach to Mariupol occurred somewhat quickly. On March 12, after a tough battle, DPR troops took Volnovakha, which had also been a focus of fighting throughout the years of war in Donbass.

Russian statements, actions and demands at the time of the negotiation suggest that their territorial aspirations did not in any way imply the occupation of all of Ukraine, not even those territories in the southern part of the Dnieper. The progress of those weeks also represented the creation of the land corridor to Crimea, which had been a periodically repeated theme over the years, but which in Arajamia's story completely disappears. The principle of agreement that Medinsky believed he had with Arajamia implied that Ukraine would not retain those Donbass territories and would accept the definitive loss of Crimea. However, the fact that the Kherson and Zaporozhye territories were not mentioned made it clear that they fell under the security guarantees that kyiv would obtain from Russia and a whole series of countries. In practice, these guarantees represented the new borders, so Russia implicitly agreed to withdraw from those territories.

A month after the start of its military intervention, the territorial question had to be a prominent issue in the negotiations. This is what Medinsky now argues, whose words are consistent with the principle of agreement announced and with the draft published months after the breakdown of negotiations by the Russian opposition media Meduza .

Medinsky's version confirms the two priority aspects for Russia, among which was, along with the renunciation of NATO, the resolution of the territorial issue. There were no maximalisms in the Russian demands, which did not go beyond the territory already under its control since 2014 and that of the DPR and the LPR, whose independence it had recognized and for which it sought a similar step from Kiev. In both cases, Russia clashed with the lack of international recognition and arguments based on international law, always applied selectively: the United States and a large part of its allies have defended unilateral independence that should be accepted in the case of Kosovo, but not in the case of Crimea. Added to this argument is now the duty to support Ukraine in the fight against the occupation of part of its territory, something that is also denied to the Palestinian population under Israeli occupation. The certainty that there was not going to be international recognition of the annexation of Crimea or the independence - or subsequent annexation - of Donbass, the only option for Russia was to achieve a treaty in which Ukraine would conclude the issue.

In his statements, David Arajamia preferred to focus on the military issue and downplay the territorial political aspect, as important for Russia as stopping NATO's expansion to the east. In this way, whoever led the Ukrainian delegation at the Istanbul summit, the only real opportunity that kyiv and Moscow have had to stop the war and resolve the conflict, has avoided uncomfortable questions. Arajamia has shown Kiev's reluctance to accept Russia's demand to renounce NATO membership, but has not had to face the question of whether Ukraine was ever willing to accept, at least, the loss of Crimea, where The population had already shown its complete rejection of the State born from Maidan.

In any case, and even accepting that, as Medinsky describes, there were territorial demands, Arajamia's words confirm that the imperial ambitions to which the Ukrainian Government often refers on the part of Russia did not exist. Demonstrating that the Ukrainian negotiator's interview has bothered Ukraine more than in Russia, Mijailo Podolyak insisted yesterday on those arguments. “Russia, in deliberately starting a full-scale war in Ukraine, was driven solely by an unequivocal desire to completely erase Ukraine's ability to act and sovereignty, to seize, absorb and devastate as much Ukrainian territory as possible, and to install a puppet government at the helm of the devastated country, leaving it totally dependent on the wishes and plans of Russia,” he wrote yesterday on his social networks. The advisor to the Office of the President also described as “an attempt to justify the aggression, evade responsibility, and exempt oneself from accusations of unilateral aggression with clear genocidal intentions” as “any statement by the aggressor country about negotiations or claims that the Russian Federation never had intention to conquer Ukraine ”. Harsh words considering that these are the same ideas raised, not by the aggressor State , but by one of the senior officials of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's party.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/11/30/la-ne ... rritorial/

Google Translator

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What's happening in the NWO zone: chronicle for November 29
November 29, 2023
Rybar

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The Russian Armed Forces continue to develop the initiative on the flanks of Bakhmut . Russian troops were able to drive the enemy out of the village of Khromovo ( Artemovsky ), creating prospects for a further offensive in and towards Krasnoye ( Ivanovsky ) and the dacha area on the southwestern outskirts of the city.

In the Kupyansky sector, the Russian Armed Forces knocked out the enemy from several landings in the Liman 1st area , and also entered Sinkovka . In addition, Russian troops managed to penetrate the enemy’s defenses on the Timkovka - Ivanovka - Kislovka line . Meanwhile, in the Svatovsko - Kremensky sector, Russian units advanced east of the village of Terny .

But in the Orekhovsky sector, the predominantly positional nature of the confrontation remains. At the same time, near Rabotino, servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces carried out several attacks with the aim of occupying more tactically advantageous lines.

At the same time, Ukrainian formations continue to use drones to attack Russian rear regions. Air defense systems intercepted enemy drones in the Moscow and Rostov regions . Thanks to the professional work of Russian anti-aircraft gunners, damage and casualties were avoided.

The situation on the front line and combat operations
Russian troops launched a combined attack on enemy targets throughout Ukraine. The military airfields of Starokonstantinov and Kanatovo were under fire . Also, a series of explosions occurred in Vinnitsa , Voznesensk , Nikolaev region, Bila Tserkva , Kiev region, Odessa and Zaporozhye .

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In the Starobelsky direction near Kupyansk , military personnel of the “West” group of troops of the Russian Armed Forces, during several weeks of systematic advance deep into the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, knocked out Ukrainian formations from several landings south and southwest of Liman 1st and entered the village of Sinkovka . The settlement can actually be called a stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area, despite its small size. The command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed large reserves to defend the village, but Russian fighters managed to gain a foothold. As a result of the latest battles, the Russian Armed Forces inflicted significant damage on the enemy. According to the interception data, the combined units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost one killed and 20 wounded, and 30 were missing, which can be equated to liquidated or captured.

To the east, at the Ivanovka - Kislovka line, positional battles continue without visible changes in the front. But in the vicinity of the abandoned village of Zagoruykovka or Timkovka, Russian troops were able to wedge themselves into the enemy’s defenses. Despite the absence of any fortified positions, the former settlement is located on a hill, where the Ukrainian command built its defense along the Timkovka - Ivanovka - Kislovka line . Because of this, Ukrainian formations urgently began to transfer reinforcements to strengthen the second defensive line in Podol and Petropavlovka . Also, three unidentified units were transferred from the borders with the Belgorod region to Kupyansk .

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A slight activation of the front is noted to the south in the Svatovsko-Kremenskaya area . This zone, in particular Borovaya , is important for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in supplying the group in Kupyansk due to the destruction of crossings through Oskol . The other day, Russian assault units carried out a daring attack on the strongholds of the 21st mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces east of the village of Terny south of the Zhuravka gully . As a result of the battle, the Ukrainian formations fled from the position, and reinforcements were sent to help. Several groups of 21st infantry brigade on three infantry fighting vehicles counterattacked, but unsuccessfully, suffering losses in manpower and one infantry fighting vehicle.

In the Svatovsky section, the movement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the Makeevka - Nevskoye line was also noted . The enemy expects the Russian army to become more active along the Zhuravka - Makeevka line , which could create problems for the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping, including near Kupyansk. Against this background, shelling of Russian positions along the LBS intensified from tanks and artillery. Our soldiers captured one of these moments yesterday: a Leopard 1A5 DK was firing east of the village of Vishnevoye when a shell landed on it. As a result, the crew abandoned the vehicle in an open field, which became the first documented loss of tanks of this type in the conflict.

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In the Soledar direction, on the flanks of Bakhmut, Russian troops seized the initiative from the enemy, who had used up resources during unsuccessful attempts to encircle the city.

In the northwest of Bakhmut, units of the 98th Guards Airborne Division repulsed an attack at the Berkhovskoye Reservoir and launched a counteroffensive in the direction of Bogdanovka and Khromovo ( Artemovsky ). As a result, Russian paratroopers managed to expand the zone of control around the reservoir (recapture what the Ukrainian Armed Forces had occupied for several months at the cost of hundreds of lives), and also successfully advanced to Khromovo. Even during the assault on Bakhmut itself by the forces of the Wagner PMC, the village was important for supplying the garrison of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Now the liberation of the settlement will create the preconditions for pressure on the southern outskirts of Bakhmut.

Khromovo is located near Krasnoye ( Ivanovskoye ) - the village from which shelling of the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in Kleshcheevka and the surrounding area came. Now, units of the Russian Army will be able to improve their positions at the Bakhmut dachas and in the direction of Krasnoye, attacking from two sides. Changes in the configuration of the front have already affected the line at Kleshcheevka, where the intensity of the fire has significantly decreased. Probably some of the guns and mortars were pulled away from the front line. At the moment, fighters of the Russian Armed Forces are systematically knocking out the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the approaches to Kleshcheevka. The village itself is not of significant importance due to its location in the lowlands. The heights to the north and in the direction of Krasny are important, for which the struggle is taking place.


At the Avdeevsky site, the Russian Armed Forces completed clearing the southern industrial zone. In addition, the Russian Armed Forces are developing an offensive in the area of ​​Novokalinovo and Avdeevsky coke plant . In turn, there are positional clashes between Severny and Tonenky . There are reports of a possible transfer of new reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Zaporozhye direction.


In the Vremyevsky sector, Russian troops continue to fight at the Priyutnoye - Staromayorskoye line . According to the latest data, units of the Russian Armed Forces managed to expand the zone of control in the forest belt and occupy another stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

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The fighting in the Orekhovsky sector had long since moved into the positional phase. For a long time, Ukrainian formations have not launched major attacks similar to those they carried out in the summer and early autumn with the massive use of armored vehicles. At the same time, Russian troops are gradually recapturing positions near Rabotino and Verbovoy , lost in previous months. For now, we are not talking about attempting some kind of large counter-offensive, but about occupying more tactically advantageous positions.

Bad weather , which is now observed in several areas at once , has a great influence on the fighting . This limits the use of aircraft and drones, and eroded soil with mud makes it difficult to move equipment. In such conditions, the intensity of military clashes is forced to decrease. At the same time, the enemy command is transferring forces that previously operated near Orekhovoy to Avdeevka : in particular, units of the 116th mechanized brigade recently left there . At the moment, the Zaporozhye direction is becoming more and more secondary for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.


In the Kherson direction, the enemy holds Krynki at the cost of heavy losses in manpower . The Ukrainian Armed Forces are still making attempts to replenish their ranks. Two Ukrainian fast boats attempted to land in the area of ​​the railway bridge: a group of seven people was discovered by aerial reconnaissance and then destroyed by rocket artillery strikes.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas

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Ukrainian formations again used a drone to attack Moscow . Russian anti-aircraft gunners intercepted a drone near the village of Borisovka , Podolsk urban district. According to preliminary data, there was no damage or casualties at the site where the debris fell. A few kilometers from the incident zone is the Ostafyevo joint airport located near Moscow. In addition, objects in Moscow itself could become the enemy’s target. At the same time, in recent days the Ukrainian Armed Forces have increased the number of attacks on the Russian capital. The previous attempt took place on Sunday, when air defense systems shot down five drones over the Moscow region .

In addition, Russian air defense systems intercepted a Ukrainian drone over the Rostov region : no damage or casualties.

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Ukrainian formations did not stop shelling the Donetsk agglomeration . The Central City and Nikitovsky districts of Gorlovka , as well as the Kuibyshevsky and Petrovsky districts of Donetsk , came under enemy fire . There was no additional information about casualties or damage.


In the Zaporozhye region, Ukrainian formations launched a missile attack on Pologi : 12 buildings were damaged, two people were injured.

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During the day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued shelling the Kherson region . Arrivals were recorded in the settlements of Gola Pristan , Kakhovka , Novaya Kakhovka , Novaya Mayachka , Novye Lageri and Radensk . The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the interception of several drones over Novaya Kakhovka. In addition, yesterday morning the enemy launched a strike from a HIMARS rocket launcher at the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs building in Yubileiny : four people were killed, 18 people were injured, five of whom were seriously injured.

Political events

Iranian drones of the “Shahed” family, better known to the Russian audience under the localized name “Geranium”, have already firmly established themselves in the headlines of all world media in the context of the North-East Military District in Ukraine. For several months now, flying mopeds have been terrifying the Ukrainian air defense, including thanks to constantly emerging innovations (for example, black paint and carbon coating).

Relatively cheap but effective drones have long been mass-produced in the Russian Federation, and “Geran” has become a brand that Russian specialists are constantly improving. But this success did not appear out of thin air; it has a long and interesting history of formation, directly related to the development of the entire unmanned aviation industry in Iran.

Together with colleagues from the @partisan2015 channel , we translated a documentary into Russian, which for the first time showed declassified materials that shed light on various aspects of the production, testing and use of drones in Iran.

About the latest excuses for the failure of the “counter-offensive”

It is sometimes interesting to see how the West explains the failure of the summer Ukrainian offensive after all the military supplies and loud promises. Increasingly, in statements one can hear notes of reproaches that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are simply fighting incorrectly. For example, the former commander of the US Army in Europe, General Ben Hodges , recently said that it was necessary to give the Kiev regime even more weapons. And as if between words he added:

The United States would never send American soldiers on the offensive without achieving complete air superiority and preparing a huge number of engineering vehicles.

It would seem that a three-star general should remember that even the United States had to fight without complete air supremacy. As well as knowing about the shortage of engineering equipment due to the prevailing concept until recently, according to which minefields with trench lines are a thing of the distant past.

And okay, when I heard such categorical things divorced from reality from some domestic military experts. But when similar style statements come from the lips of the ex-commander of American troops in Europe, this is very significant.

However, this is not the first such revelation from Ben Hodges: in winter he promised the capture of the Ukrainian Armed Forces of Crimea by the end of summer, and in May he said that the Ukrainian offensive would “surprise the whole world.” Although it really surprised, just in a slightly different direction.

Who is splitting Ukraine from within?

The Western press continues to fuel the conflict between the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny and the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky . This time, The Economist magazine published an article, the authors of which stated that the very contradictions between the military and political leadership of Ukraine were expected given the failure of the Ukrainian offensive. In fact, among the Ukrainian elite there is a process of shifting responsibility from one department to another. The situation is aggravated by the paranoia that reigns in the OP, caused by the fall in the ratings of Zelensky, who is significantly inferior in popularity to the Ukrainian commander-in-chief. And although Zaluzhny did not openly declare his political ambitions (which does not prevent the commander-in-chief from leaking important inside information to the Western press), Zelensky has already advised the general not to get involved in politics. According to The Economist, another factor contributing to the split in the Ukrainian elites was the criminal trial regarding the surrender of the south of Ukraine in early 2022, which some have already dubbed the “ Zaluzhny case .”

The situation was promptly responded to by the “ lightning rods of the OP ” - people’s deputies from the ruling party “ Servant of the People ”, through whom Zelensky’s team sends the main critical messages to the military. Our friend Maryana Bezuglaya (who had previously repeatedly called on Zaluzhny to resign) accused the commander-in-chief of organizing this publication in The Economist (which seems to be true). Bezuglaya also claims that Zaluzhny posts such materials through the owner of Ukrainskaya Pravda , Tomasz Fiala . In turn, People's Deputy Yevgeny Shevchenko (close to the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Kirill Budanov) called for sanctions against Ukrayinska Pravda, writing that President Zelensky “ did not please the Soros .”

The conflict continues to intensify. Zaluzhny has already been supported by Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Anatoly Stefan , accusing Bezuglaya of discrediting the army and the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the tacit consent of fellow party members:
“ Former veterans, volunteers, public figures have taken a lot of water in their mouths. Not a single reaction, not a single comment, not a single message condemning these actions. Complete lies, manipulation, complete dirt towards the Ukrainian Armed Forces. All this from a deputy of the Verkhovna Rada during the war. I won’t remind anyone who benefits from this. They already immediately quoted this to themselves. Keep silent... We will not remain silent! »

All that remains is to figure out what the “Soros” have to do with it? The fact is that the above-mentioned owner of Ukrayinska Pravda, Tomasz Fiala , is the general director of the Ukrainian company Dragon Capital , whose investment partner is the well-known Soros Fund Management ( Soros fund ). In this case, it becomes clear who is behind Zelensky’s leak. We have previously suggested that the West is looking for an alternative to the fanatical president of Ukraine, who, apparently, really believes in war to a victorious end. It is clear that at the moment Zelensky’s candidacy is convenient for his patrons, however, when the conflict needs to end and military assistance must be stopped, the West will use the previously prepared ground to change the Ukrainian leadership, putting at the head of the state a candidate who is ready to negotiate with Russia . Most likely, the “disgraced” Arestovich (who also has Western patrons behind him) and Zaluzhny will continue to make loud statements, leaking sensational materials to the foreign press. However, we should not rule out expanding this list of Ukrainian oppositionists.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

Google Translator

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Polish Troops on Finnish Border Could Increase Tensions: Russia

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Russia-Finland border, Nov. 29, 2023. | Photo: X/ @rlc_mac

Published 29 November 2023

"The Finns should clearly realize that this will pose a threat to us," Kremlim spokesperson said.


On Wednesday, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that a build-up of troops along Finland's border with Russia is completely unjustified and could provoke further tensions.

"Tensions may arise just in the course of the concentration of additional units on our border… the Finns should clearly realize that this will pose a threat to us," he said, pointing out that sending Polish units implies "redundant measures.”

His statements were made in response to a decision announced by Jacek Siewiera, the head of the Polish National Security Bureau, to send a group of military advisers to help Finland protect its border.

Peskov stressed that the current situation does not pose a threat to Finland and recalled that there is an "absolutely unprovoked, unjustified concentration of armed units."


Meanwhile, during a meeting of NATO foreign affairs ministers carried out in Brussels on Wednesday, the Baltic countries warned of the risks that Russia generates with an "instrumentalization" of migrants on the Finnish border.

“Russia represents a long-term existential threat to the Euro-Atlantic community and we are ready to do anything as part of the Alliance to strengthen the defense and deterrence of our region,” Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said upon her arrival to the meeting.

“We have witnessed a hybrid operation carried out by Russia on our border, in which they have instrumentalized citizens of third countries to allow people to pass without valid documents,” she added, emphasizing that Finland and its allies will not accept such an operation.

During the last two weeks, Finland has closed the passage of people on its border with Russia due to the massive arrival of migrants from the Russian side.

On Tuesday, the Finnish government announced Tuesday that it would temporarily close all border crossings with Russia from Nov. 30 to Dec. 13 due to national security concerns.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Pol ... -0006.html

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The Nord Stream Lies Just Keep Coming
November 29, 2023

The idea that Ukraine’s senior command had the ability or daring to execute the complex and risky venture of blowing up the pipelines without involving the U.S. beggars belief, writes Jonathan Cook.

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Diver, bubbles, light. (Derek Keats, Flickr,CC BY 2.0)

By Jonathan Cook
Jonathan-Cook.net

Want to understand why the media we consume is either owned by billionaires or under the thumb of governments? The latest developments in the reporting of who was behind the explosions that destroyed the Nord Stream pipelines that brought Russian gas to Europe provide the answer.

Although largely forgotten now, the blasts in the Baltic Sea in September 2022 had huge and lasting repercussions. The explosion was an act both of unprecedented industrial sabotage and of unparalleled environmental terrorism, releasing untold quantities of the most potent of the greenhouse gasses, methane, into the atmosphere.

The blowing up of the pipelines plunged Europe into a prolonged energy crisis, tipping its economies deeper into a recession from which they are yet to recover. Europe was forced to turn to the United States and buy much more expensive liquified gas. And one of the long-term effects will be to accelerate the de-industrialisation of Europe, especially Germany.

There can be almost no one in Europe who did not suffer personal financial harm, in most cases significant harm, from the explosions.

The question that needed urgently answering at the time of the blasts was one no media organisation was in a hurry to investigate: Who did it?

In unison, the media simply recited the White House’s extraordinary claim that Russia had sabotaged its own pipelines.

That required an unprecedented suspension of disbelief. It meant that Moscow had chosen to strip itself of both the lucrative income stream the gas pipelines generated and of the political and diplomatic leverage it enjoyed over European states from its control of their energy supplies. This was at a time, remember, when the Kremlin, embattled in its war in Ukraine, needed all the diplomatic influence it could muster.

The Main Culprit

The need to breathe credibility into the laughably improbable “Russia did it” story was so urgent at the time because there was only one other serious culprit in the frame. No media outlet, of course, mentioned it.

The United States had both the motive and the means.

U.S. officials from President Joe Biden down had repeatedly threatened that Washington would intervene to make sure the Nord Stream pipelines could not operate.

The administration was expressly against European energy dependency on Russia. Another gain from the pipelines’ destruction was that a more economically vulnerable Europe would be forced to lean even more heavily on the U.S. as a guarantor of its security, a useful chokehold on Europe when Washington was preparing for prolonged confrontations with both Russia and China.


As for the means, only a handful of states had the divers and technical resources enabling them to pull off the extremely difficult feat of successfully planting and detonating explosives on the sea floor undetected.

Had we known then what is gradually becoming clear now, even from establishment media reporting — that the U.S. was, at the very least, intimately involved — there would have been uproar.

It would have been clear that the U.S. was a rogue, terrorist state, willing to burn its allies for geostrategic gain. It would have been clear that there was no limit to the crimes it was prepared to commit.

Every time Europeans had to pay substantially more for their heating bills, or filling up their car, or paying for the weekly shop, they would have known that the cause was gangster-like criminality by the Biden administration.

Evidence Ignored

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The Washington Post Building in Washington, D.C. (Ron Cogswell, Flickr, CC BY 2.0)

Which is precisely why the establishment media were so very careful after the explosions not to implicate the Biden administration in any way, even if it meant ignoring the mass of evidence staring them in the face.

It is why they ignored the incendiary report by legendary investigative journalist Seymour Hersh — who has broken some of the most important stories of the last half century — detailing exactly how the U.S. carried out the operation. When his account was occasionally referenced by the media, it was solely to ridicule it.

[Related: Seymour Hersh Accuses US of Nord Stream ‘Cover Up’ and Craig Murray: Sy Hersh & The Way We Live Now]

It is why, when it became obvious that the “Russia did it” claim was unsupportable, the media literally jumped ship: credulously reporting that a small group of “maverick” Ukrainians — unknown to President Volodymyr Zelensky, of course — had rented a yacht and carried off one of the most daring and difficult deep-sea stunts ever recorded.

It is why, later, the media treated it as entirely unremarkable — and certainly not worthy of comment — that new evidence suggested the Biden administration was warned of this maverick Ukrainian operation against Europe’s energy security. It apparently knew what was about to happen but did precisely nothing to stop it.

And it is why The Washington Post’s latest report changes the earlier, impossible-to-believe claim that “maverick” Ukrainians carried out the operation to destroy the pipelines into one that implicates the very top of the Ukrainian military. Yet, once again, the paper and the rest of the media steadfastly refuse to join the dots and follow the implications contained in their own reporting.

The central character in the new drama, Roman Chervinsky, belongs to Ukraine’s special operations forces. He supposedly oversaw the small, six-man team that rented a yacht and then carried out the James Bond-style attack.

The ingenuous Washington Post claims that his training and operational experience meant he was “well suited to help carry out a covert mission meant to obscure Ukraine’s responsibility.” It lists his resistance activities against Russia. None indicate that he had any experience masterminding a highly challenging, extremely dangerous, technically complex attack deep in the waters of the Baltic Sea.

Prior Knowledge

If the Ukrainian military really was behind the explosions — rather than the U.S. — all the indications are that the Biden administration and the Pentagon must have been intimately involved in the planning, execution and subsequent cover-up.

Not least, it is extremely unlikely that the Ukrainian military had the technical capability to carry out by itself such an operation successfully and covertly.

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Map of the explosions caused at the Nord Stream pipelines on Sept. 26, 2022. (FactsWithoutBias1, CC-By-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)

And given that, even before the war, the Ukrainian military had fallen almost completely under U.S. military operational control, the idea that Ukraine’s senior command would have been able to, or dared, execute this complex and risky venture without involving the U.S. beggars belief.

Politically, it would have been quite extraordinary for Ukrainian leaders to imagine they could unilaterally decide to shut down energy supplies to Europe without consulting with the U.S., especially when Ukraine’s entire war effort was being paid for and overseen by Washington and Europe.

And of course, Ukrainian leaders would have been only too aware that the U.S. was bound to quickly work out who was behind the attack.

In such circumstances, why would the Biden administration choose to reward Ukraine with more money and arms for its act of industrial sabotage against Europe rather than punish it in some way?

Equally, the three states supposedly investigating the attack — Germany, Sweden and Denmark — would also have soon figured out that Ukraine was culpable. Why would they decide to cover up Ukraine’s attack on Europe’s economy rather than expose it — unless they were worried about upsetting the U.S.?

And of course, there is the elephant in the room: The Washington Post’s earlier reporting indicated that the U.S. had prior knowledge Ukraine was planning the attack. That is even more likely if the pipeline blast was signed off by Ukrainian military commanders rather than a group of Ukrainian “mavericks.”

The Washington Post’s new story repeats the line that the Biden administration was forewarned of the attack. Now, however, the paper casually reports that, after expressing opposition, “U.S. officials believed the attack had been called off. But it turned out only to have been postponed to three months later, using a different point of departure than originally planned.”

The Washington Post simply accepts the word of U.S. officials that the most powerful country on the planet fell asleep at the wheel. The C.I.A. and the Biden administration apparently knew the Ukrainian military was keen to blow up the Nord Stream pipelines and plunge Europe into an energy crisis and economic recession. But U.S. officials were blindsided when the same small Ukrainian operational team changed locations and timings.

On this account, U.S. intelligence fell for the simplest of bait and switches when the stakes were about as high as could be imagined. And The Washington Post and other media outlets report all of this with a faux-seriousness.

Ukrainian Fall Guy

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Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky meeting with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Kiev on Nov. 20. The U.S. delegation also included Commander of the U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe Christopher Cavoli. (President of Ukraine, Flickr, Public domain)

Either way, the U.S. is deeply implicated in the attack on Europe’s energy infrastructure and the undermining of its economy.

Even if the establishment media reporting is right and Ukraine blew up Nord Stream, the Biden administration must have given the green light, overseen the operational planning and assisted in the implementation and subsequent cover-up.

Then again, if as seems far more likely, Hersh is right, then there was no middle man — the U.S. carried out the attack on its own. It needed a fall guy. When Russia no longer fitted the bill, Ukraine became the sacrificial offering.

A year on, these muffled implications from the media’s own reporting barely raise an eyebrow.

The establishment media has played precisely the role expected of it: neutering public outrage. Its regimented acceptance of the initial, preposterous claim of Russian responsibility. Its drip-feed, uncritical reporting of other, equally improbable possibilities. Its studious refusal to join the all-too-visible dots. Its continuing incuriousness about its own story and what Ukraine’s involvement would entail.

The media has failed by every yardstick of what journalism is supposed to be there for, what it is supposed to do. And that is because the establishment media is not there to dig out the truth, it is not there to hold power to account. Ultimately, when the stakes are high — and they get no higher than the Nord Stream attack — it is there to spin narratives convenient to those in power, because the media itself is embedded in those networks of power.

Why do billionaires rush to own media corporations, even when the outlets are loss-making? Why are governments so keen to let billionaires take charge of the chief means by which we gain information and communicate with each other. Because the power to tell stories, the power over our minds, is the greatest power there is.

https://consortiumnews.com/2023/11/29/t ... ep-coming/

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Bringing Warmongers to Justice

Stephen Karganovic

November 29, 2023

The Ukrainian Tribunal should disseminate a clear warning that no one will remain exempt from accountability.

The precise road map of the Ukraine War Crimes Tribunal is still an enigma. Even the format of the court, as a Russian or an international legal institution, remains unclear. Perhaps there are good reasons for holding back on such details at this particular stage.

Recent revelations coming from the top echelons of the Ukrainian regime nevertheless highlight once again the important question of how the Ukrainian Tribunal will go about its tasks. According to David Arakhamia, an influential Zelensky associate and Ukraine’s negotiator at the peace talks held in March of 2022, what many have suspected has now been confirmed. In March 2022, shortly after the commencement of the Special Military Operation, a peace agreement satisfactory to both sides was reached in Istanbul. That peace settlement was scuttled upon the explicit demand put to the Kiev authorities by the then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson during his unannounced and hastily arranged visit in April 2022.

Information about the sequence of events by which imminent peace between Ukraine and Russia was blocked raises significant issues about the scope of the future tribunal’s work. Given Johnson’s pivotal role in prolonging the war, the Ukraine Tribunal now must deal with the question of whether its authority should be confined to prosecuting direct perpetrators of war crimes or ought to include as well the prosecution of their enablers.

Johnson is apparently one such enabler. Newly disclosed evidence shows that he used the resources of his high office to block the peace initiative and to encourage further fighting.

Following Boris Johnson’s personal intervention, which had the effect of prolonging the conflict, about half a million Ukrainians and several tens of thousands of Russians were killed in preventable military operations. These operations were a direct consequence of Johnson’s interference in the conflict. According to military experts, in addition to the killed in action the number of wounded and maimed on both sides may be roughly calculated by multiplying the number of the killed by a factor of at least three. That raises enormously the level of avoidable human casualties in the hostilities that Johnson unnecessarily prolonged. To this should be added material destruction on both sides that also would not have occurred except for Johnson’s intervention and if the parties had been left to work out a negotiated mutually acceptable solution.

International jurisprudence rooted in the Nuremberg principles has established clearly that deliberate incitement to war and obstruction of the peaceful resolution of conflicts is a prosecutable crime against the peace. Those who in March and April of 2022 employed their influence and control in Ukraine to prevent a peaceful settlement between the parties must therefore be held to account. Underlying circumstances support the conclusion that the nature of their conduct was not merely political. It could potentially be criminal as well, provided it is proved that they acted with reckless disregard for the loss of human life and destruction of property, and that they knew or should have known this would naturally follow from the policies they pursued.

Arguably, Johnson did not act on his own but at the behest of the decision making cabal in the collective West, which on April 9, 2022, dispatched him to Kiev with instructions to persuade Ukraine to continue the war. The liability of his confederates may be set aside for the moment. Concerning Johnson’s personal liability, however, there can scarcely be room for doubt. He knowingly consented to undertake a corrupt mission on behalf of the cabal of which he was a member in order to undermine the imminent peaceful resolution to the dispute between Ukraine and Russia. The consequence of his action was to dissuade Ukraine from giving effect to the peace agreement it had reached with Russia by offering it material inducements and guarantees of unlimited support in return for pressing on with the hostilities. The human and material losses which both sides sustained thereafter are a directly attributable, foreseeable, and avoidable consequence of Johnson’s intervention in April of 2022.

The preceding outline of Johnson’s criminal liability closely follows the legal analysis employed by the International Criminal Court for the Former Yugoslavia, also known as the Hague Tribunal, in convicting numerous defendants who were brought to face charges before it.

This writer is on record as urging that the Ukrainian War Crimes Tribunal, which is in the process of being established, should not waste its time reinventing the wheel. Wherever practicable, it should creatively incorporate the procedures of the Hague Tribunal. That will make it exceedingly difficult to credibly challenge the Ukrainian Tribunal’s practices, at least to the extent that they mirror the legal rationales and judicial mechanisms devised by its Western detractors in the period of their hegemonic dominance for the benefit of their privileged legal instrument, the Hague Tribunal.

Following in the footsteps of the Nuremberg court, in addition to pursuing direct perpetrators, the Hague Tribunal indicted also suspects that it classified as inciters and enablers of war crimes (the Šešelj case is a conspicuous example). The Ukrainian War Crimes Tribunal should do the same.

Recent high level revelations of Boris Johnson’s warmongering activities, resulting in a massive death toll and immeasurable grief to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian families, provide a sufficient factual basis to open an investigation which might lead to a criminal indictment. Once the mechanism for dealing with this category of cases is established and perfected, the Ukraine Tribunal should proceed to investigate and, where warranted, indict other prominent figures in the collective West leadership. The focus should be on those who, while acting in a non-perpetrator capacity, had nevertheless made a significant contribution to the commission of criminal acts and grave violations of international law in the course of the conflict which is taking place in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Tribunal must be relentless in the pursuit of offenders, whoever and wherever they might be. It should disseminate a clear warning that no one will remain exempt from accountability. Many of them for the rest of their natural lives will probably remain beyond the reach of effective justice, but an unequivocal message must be sent to them all that the days of hegemonic impunity are over. As the number of sovereign states rejecting hegemonic dictates steadily increases the noose around them will tighten. As a minimum, even if momentarily safe from apprehension and prosecution, indicted war criminals must be made to watch their back and constantly feel insecure knowing that the slightest misstep might result in justice being served.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/ ... o-justice/

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ANDREW KORYBKO: THE WEST WOULD NEVER TALK ABOUT ITS MINORITIES THE WAY THAT UKRAINE TALKS ABOUT ITS RUSSIAN ONE
NOVEMBER 29, 2023

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By Andrew Korybko, Substack, 11/21/23

The West’s liberal-globalist elite weaponizes identity politics at home and abroad in advance of their New Cold War bloc’s strategic interests, with there being no principle except for the pursuit of power over their domestic and foreign rivals.

Two statements from leading Ukrainian officials this month about their country’s Russian minority should have raised eyebrows among Westerners but regrettably went unnoticed despite them being deemed unacceptable by that bloc if someone within them said the same about their own minorities. Deputy Prime Minister for European integration Olga Stefanishina claimed that no such minority exists anymore, while Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk said their rights deserve to be infringed.

The first told a press conference on 9 November that “There is no Russian minority in Ukraine. It does not exist. There is not a single judicially defined community identifying itself as a Russian minority.” As for the second, he told state-controlled TV on Monday that “There are no Russian ethnic minorities in Ukraine as of now and there can be none…If a people do not show respect but commit aggression against Ukraine, their rights should be infringed upon in this field.”

Both comments followed the European Commission recommending in early November that Ukraine begin talks on joining the EU, and the bloc didn’t chastise either of those two officials for what they said about their country’s Russian minority, both of whom claimed that the EU supports their stance. Their comments are counterfactual as proven by the US government’s own official statistics per the CIA World Factbook, which reports that 17% of the Ukrainian population is comprised of ethnic Russians.

This is more than the percentage of African Americans in the US and slightly less than the rate of Hispanic Americans so Kiev’s policy towards its Russian minority would be the same as if Washington denied that either of those two exist on subjective administrative and moral grounds. That former Soviet Republic’s “de-Russification” and “Ukrainization” policies created the aforesaid administrative conditions for precisely that purpose, which in turn provoked an uproar that led to the latter faux moral one.

It’s understandable that any people would protest the state’s aggressive persecution of their ethnicity, language, and even religion like post-“Maidan” Ukraine has done to its Russian minority, and it’s within their UN-enshrined rights to peacefully demonstrate against this. Nevertheless, as all objective observers already know by now, the West only arbitrarily upholds the implementation of international law whenever its policymakers expect to derive some strategic benefit from doing so.

In this case, the West in general and the EU in particular turn a blind eye towards Ukraine’s persecution of its Russian minority, its administrative elimination of them from national legal existence, and its official’s justification of the preceding internationally illegal policies as part of their proxy war on Russia. This selective approach embodies the so-called “rules-based order” as was explained above, the specific standard of which in this example would be deemed unacceptable if applied within the West itself.

This insight shows that the West’s liberal-globalist elite weaponizes identity politics at home and abroad in advance of their New Cold War bloc’s strategic interests, with there being no principle except for the pursuit of power over their domestic and foreign rivals. It’s undeniable that Ukraine’s Russian minority is treated much worse than the US’ African American or Hispanic American ones, yet the US won’t say a word since it agrees with Stefanchuk that Russians deserve to have their rights infringed.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2023/11/and ... ssian-one/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Dec 01, 2023 1:09 pm

The territory and the population: the difficulty of conquering Crimea and Donbass
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 12/01/2023

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The territorial question has been, since 2014, one of the origins of both the internal Ukrainian and Russian-Ukrainian conflicts. Although the trigger dates back to the way in which Maidan irregularly overthrew the democratically elected President Yanukovych, the fight for the territory began in March of that year with the rapid military, political and social mobilization in Crimea that led to the annexation of the territory after a referendum recognized only by Russia. Since then, even surveys carried out by Western organizations have confirmed that the decision had and continues to have the support of the majority of the population, a detail that Ukraine and its partners have always preferred to ignore. As in Donbass, the opinion of the population has never counted for Ukraine, which since the February 2014 victory in kyiv has wanted to impose the nationalist agenda against which the population rose up. Although at that time they were mocked by politicians, social organizations and the national and international press, the fears of the population who in those months protested against Ukraine's intention to, for example, discriminate against the Russian language, have gradually become a reality. as the Ukrainian Government imposed that nationalist vision of the country and its history that that part of the population rejected.

Although with notable differences in the situation, both the part of Donbass under the control of the People's Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk and Crimea have lived for practically a decade outside Ukraine, its media and its imposition of nationalist discourse as the only one. acceptable national discourse. With the intention of flatly denying the existence of an internal factor in the Ukrainian conflict, which it has always defined as a Russian invasion, Kiev has ignored and continues to ignore those reasons why the annexation of Crimea had great popular support and Donbass has continued fighting despite the very harsh conditions imposed on the population due to the economic blockade of Ukraine, which even denied pensions to the population of the region.

Since the Russian invasion and especially since the three Russian withdrawals - from kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson - gave Zelensky's team the possibility of exploiting the triumphalist discourse of the recovery of territorial integrity according to the 1991 borders, the mentions of the near future in which the blue and yellow flag would fly in Yalta or Donetsk have appeared periodically. These propaganda mentions have been accompanied by the great plans that Ukraine claimed to have for those territories. Among them, the statements of Oleksiy Danilov, president of the National Security and Defense Council, stand out; Miajilo Podolyak, possibly the most influential of Andriy Ermak's advisors in the President's Office or Kirilo Budanov, head of military intelligence.

Taking the conquest for granted - much of these statements and publication of plans for the next day occurred before the Ukrainian counteroffensive collided with the Russian minefields in Zaporozhie - these representatives did not skimp on the details about the treatment it would deserve. the dissident population. Ukraine has come to give figures, always in the hundreds of thousands, of those it intends to expel from Crimea and has promised all kinds of measures ranging from filtering in search of agents, denial of civil rights such as voting, criminal accusations of collaborationism even to those who have collaborated with local institutions in sectors such as education or withdrawal of nationality to those who have obtained Russian citizenship. Depending on the ambition of each moment, these measures have affected more or fewer sectors of the population, although the objective of collective punishment of a disloyal population and the willingness to go beyond their will in search of the only important thing has always been maintained. , recover the territory.

The increasing distance between Ukraine's wishes and the reality of the military and political fronts has not been enough to make this emphasis on the recovery of the territories that have most clearly rejected Kiev disappear, even temporarily. Throughout the war, the Ukrainian Government has tried to balance, in a way that has rarely been coherent, a victimist discourse with a triumphalist one. The first is directed abroad and seeks to further increase the flow of weapons and ammunition, without which Ukraine could not continue fighting. The second, for internal consumption, aims to maintain the hope of a complete victory, necessary to ensure that the recruitment of troops for this remains possible.

Yesterday, at an event in Nikolaev, the Ukrainian president revived the issue of territorial integrity, but, unlike on previous occasions, he did so not only to refer to the territory but also to the population. As usual, the starting point was to take for granted the future victory and the recovery of Crimea and Donbass. What's more, in this week in which so much is being said about what happened in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in March 2022, the Ukrainian president has once again insisted on his demand for complete Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory according to its borders. 1991 as a prerequisite for future negotiations.

Zelensky's words about Crimea and Donbass have been aimed at explaining the difficulties that Ukraine could encounter in recovering the population . “It may happen that we recover the territories before these people,” he said yesterday, insisting on taking for granted a recovery of territories that not even the Pentagon considers realistic. “For example,” he continued, “if we take Donbass, those people have been living there for ten years, they live in a different space and this is a long process. It may be different. I think it is more difficult with Donbass. My associates once told me that it will be almost impossible to take back Crimea and that it would be very difficult to take back Donbass. But, in my opinion, if we talk about the population, because the territories recover with the population, if the population does not want it, it will be very difficult,” he continued.

Several aspects of the words of Zelensky must be highlighted, who before the Russian invasion already appealed publicly - and in Russian, so that the population could understand him without difficulties - to the population that felt Russian to move to Russia. Firstly, for ten years now, the population of both Crimea and Donbass has shown their support for Russia, not Ukraine, sometimes with weapons in hand and fighting directly against the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Although kyiv has ignored it to continue denying that there was a civil war factor in the conflict, the population has already shown its rejection of Ukraine.

Secondly, the ambiguity with which Zelensky refers to the circumstances in which the population has lived during the last decade seeks to avoid the words anti-terrorist operation and joint forces operation , as well as economic blockade, non-payment of pensions and refusal to negotiation with terrorists . It is Ukraine's actions throughout this decade that have forced the population to choose kyiv or Moscow. The war has marked the last decade and explains the rejection of the population of Donbass towards Ukraine, the country that invented an anti-terrorist operation to justify using its armed forces on national territory. But so has Ukraine's political position with respect to the minimal concessions that the Minsk process implied and that Kiev openly rejected and the constant insulting and dehumanizing rhetoric that has been maintained in the administrations of Yatseniuk, Poroshenko and Zelensky and in their related press.

Despite ten years of denying the reality of a civil war in Donbass in which Russia, the aggressor state, was only a factor, even Zelensky, whether he openly admits it or not, is aware of the population's rejection. “Even now, when Russia is fighting us,” Zelensky has stated although Ukraine claims to have been fighting Russia since 2014, “the hardest separatists are standing firm. The Russians flee and they stand firm,” he added, admitting, much more explicitly than usual, that Ukrainians fight against Ukrainians on the Donbass front. The willingness to admit reality is limited and Zelensky again returned to his wishes by mentioning that “there have been no military operations in Crimea, so I think Crimea is waiting for the return.” Ukraine has not managed to bring the war to Crimea, protected since 2014 by Russian troops, unlike Donbass, defended by improvised militias that, with much less help from Russia, had to defend themselves from Ukraine's military aggression. The war has not reached the peninsula because kyiv has not managed to advance on it, not because the population's rejection has been less than in Donbass, where, in reality, the division between the pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian population was less unbalanced than in Crimea. The population's rejection is shown in the fact that Kirilo Budanov has needed military operations to place a Ukrainian flag in Crimea for his propaganda events on Ukrainian Independence Day.

In the case of Donbass, the reality is evident even for Zelensky, capable of seeing the difficulty of overcoming the population and the armies that have had to be formed to defend themselves from Ukraine. “Donbass is also waiting, but it will be very difficult because much of the territory was occupied and as militarized as possible.” The fortification of the cities on the Donbass front is undoubtedly an important factor. But even more so is the population's will to resist Ukrainian aggression, which began in 2014 and has continued, through military, economic, media and social means, for almost a decade.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/12/01/el-te ... y-donbass/

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What's happening in the NWO zone: chronicle for November 30
December 1, 2023
Rybar

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On the fronts of the Northern Military District, the situation has not undergone significant changes: in the Bakhmut sector, Russian units are developing an offensive in the area of ​​​​the Berkhovsky reservoir , trying to capture tactically important heights near Bogdanovka .

In the Avdeevsky direction, the Russian Army is advancing towards Novokalinovo , occupying new positions in the forest belt to the south. At the same time, to the north, the enemy is advancing towards Gorlovka , drawing the attention of Russian troops.

In the Kherson direction in Krynki, the enemy made several attempts to advance deeper into the territory. Despite the fact that all attacks from the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled, the enemy managed to slightly expand the zone of control in the village, constantly making up for losses through rotation.

The Russian Armed Forces launched a kamikaze drone attack on the Dolgintsevo airfield in Krivoy Rog , hitting a Su-25 attack aircraft of the Air Force with a direct hit. The strike was carried out at a distance of over 70 kilometers from the front, and the adjustment was carried out by another drone, which indicates the possibility of Russian drones operating deep in the rear in the presence of enemy electronic warfare.

Lancet strike on Ukrainian Su-25 at Dolgintsevo airfield

Units of the Russian Armed Forces attacked the Dolgintsevo military airfield in Krivoy Rog with a kamikaze drone “Lancet” . The strike was delivered at a distance of over 70 kilometers from the front line when adjusted from the Orlan, which indicates the fundamental possibility of operating so deep behind enemy lines, despite opposition from electronic warfare. As a result of a direct hit on the Su-25 attack aircraft, the latter, if not permanently disabled, is at least subject to lengthy repairs: the blow fell on the central part of the aircraft. It is interesting that gimbals were installed on the plane, and the parking area was surrounded by tires, which, at a minimum, indicates that the aircraft was used by Ukrainian formations.

The situation on the front line and combat operations

Fierce battles for Sinkovka continue in the Starobelsky direction . So far there have been no significant changes in the area, but Russian military personnel are working hard to overcome enemy defenses.


In the Soledar direction on the northern flank of Bakhmut, Russian troops are advancing towards Bogdanovka . In addition, airborne units continue fighting in the Berkhovsky reservoir area , improving the tactical situation. After the liberation of Khromovo, fierce fighting took place in the direction of the Bakhmut - Krasnoe highway . On the southern flank in the Kleshcheevka area , the Russian Army is fighting for commanding heights near the village, somewhat pushing back the enemy.


In the Avdeevsky sector, units of the Russian Armed Forces on the southern flank took up new positions in the forest belt on the approaches to Novokalinovo . Positional battles continue in the area of ​​the AKHZ industrial zone; several units of armored vehicles trying to hide in a tunnel near the industrial zone were hit by guided missile weapons. On the northern flank, the enemy tried to advance towards Mayorskoye , but was stopped by artillery.


There are no significant changes in the Vremyevsky sector : artillery duels are taking place along the contact line, and unmanned aircraft are actively operating. Thus, Russian fighters hit a Ukrainian gun with lancets near the village of Shakhterskoye , 10 kilometers from the contact line.


In the Orekhovsky sector, Russian troops counterattacked near Verbov and, despite the bad weather, are pushing back the Ukrainian formations, recapturing several strong points from them. Nevertheless, there is no talk of any big breakthroughs in this direction: this is hampered by both the soil washed away due to heavy rains and the active counter-battery fight on the part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

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In the Kherson direction in Krynki , the situation essentially remains the same: Ukrainian formations, having established themselves along the edge of the forest, are trying to move deeper, but to no avail. Yesterday, two assault groups of Ukrainian Navy marines from the so-called greenhouses came under artillery fire, and then Russian reconnaissance groups. As a result of the shooting battle, the Ukrainian marines retreated and were then evacuated to the northern outskirts. At night, two enemy assault detachments in two boats landed on the northern outskirts of the village. At the same time, a rotation of personnel was carried out under the railway bridge, which the day before came under attack by the Russian Armed Forces.

In general, the situation in Krynki and the actions of the Ukrainian forces have turned into a routine event and come down to one model: transfer to the left bank - movement into the forest - coming under fire - evacuation to the right bank with losses. True, the main threat here is that, despite the large number of killed and wounded, the size of the Marine Corps still allows them to try to solve the assigned tasks, while forcing the Russian command to react. And in the coming weeks, the soil on the Dnieper will freeze and the water will be covered with ice, which will increase the likelihood of ground attacks not only in Krynki, but also in other sections of the front, especially where there is already a bridgehead.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas
Today, the Ukrainian Armed Forces again launched several strikes on the border territories of Russia. Thus, the village of Tetkino in the Kursk region and the village of Staroselye in the Belgorod region came under attack . In addition, border guards shot down an FPV drone on approach to Shebekino . Closer to the night, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to attack the Bryansk region with a drone , but the device was intercepted by air defense systems over the Komarichny district of the subject of the Federation.

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Throughout the day, Ukrainian formations shelled the front-line cities of the DPR. In Donetsk , two people were injured, and damage to civilian infrastructure was recorded in many areas of the city. Residential buildings in Gorlovka and Yasinovataya were damaged, but there were no casualties.

In the Zaporozhye region this afternoon, the Ukrainian Armed Forces again attacked Kamenka - Dneprovskaya with a drone, damaging one of the private houses. Fortunately, there were no casualties as a result of the attack.

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During the day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued shelling the Kherson region . Nova Kakhovka , Proletarka , Korsunka , Dnepryany , Krynki , Golaya Pristan , Aleshki and Kakhovka came under fire ; no casualties were reported among the population.

Political events
How the West justifies the failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front

And again let us pay attention to how the West, by manipulating facts, justifies the failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front. If the same Hodges seemed to hint that the Ukrainians were fighting incorrectly, then ex-CIA officer Glenn Corn said that it was the support of Iran that was the main reason for Russia’s successes. No one disputes that the deepening of military-technical cooperation with Iran significantly increased the combat capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces during the Northern Military District. The Geran-1/2, Mohajer-6 drones, and artillery shells made it possible to saturate the Army in conditions of a shortage of UAVs and ammunition in the early stages of the war.

But the figures indicated in the report of the American intelligence officer can hardly be called objective. In addition to Iranian shells, Russia has significantly increased the capacity of its defense industry. Now supplies from factories have been established, and the problems that existed a few months earlier are no longer so acute. Cooperation with Iran is certainly important, but it is a mutually beneficial interaction. But such publications in the West create the impression that Russia survived only thanks to Iran, and not to the changes carried out both in the armed forces and the defense-industrial complex.

On Ukraine's accession to NATO in exchange for territory

Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba made a sharp statement, saying that Ukraine would not make territorial concessions for the sake of joining NATO.

“We must continue, we must continue to fight. Ukraine is not going to retreat. Somehow it’s always easy to tell someone else to give up and make concessions.” In addition, according to him, the pace of arms supplies by Western countries is insufficient, and from his partners there is “no pressure” regarding peace negotiations with Russia.

About statements by Hungarian politicians

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó said at the OSCE ministerial meeting in Skopje that arms supplies to Ukraine will not lead to peace. Due to the presence of Sergei Lavrov at the meeting, the ministers of the Baltic countries, Poland and Ukraine did not attend the meeting.

“Weapons supplies do not help achieve peace, but only lead to new victims. Those who say there is a solution on the battlefield are wrong. And those who say that development on the battlefield will increase the chances of peace are wrong. Every day it gets worse." In addition, the minister is dissatisfied with the fact that ethnic Hungarians continue to die at the front, and the war itself leads to high inflation and rising fuel prices

The head of the Presidential Office , Gergely Gulyas , recalled that Hungary will not support the decision to begin negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU and Europe’s allocation of 50 billion euros to Ukrainian forces until 2027. Earlier, Viktor Orban took a similar position , insisting on negotiations in Brussels on the feasibility of further financial support for Ukraine. “The Hungarian government does not support the adoption of these two measures - neither changes to the budget, nor Ukraine’s accession to the EU.”

On the closure of one of the border crossings by the Slovaks and the embargo on agricultural products

Slovak carriers plan to block the movement of freight transport through the checkpoint “Vyshne Nemecke – Uzhgorod” tomorrow from 16:00 local time . It is planned to pass no more than 4 trucks per hour. In addition, the government of the country will expand the embargo on Ukrainian agricultural products from 4 to 14 positions.

In addition to corn, wheat, rapeseed and sunflower seeds, the import of which was banned two months earlier, goods such as wheat flour, soybeans, honey, sugar, malt and others will also be banned. Additionally, transit rules will also be tightened.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-zone ... -noyabrya/

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Will the Ukraine war end in a peace treaty? RT’s ‘Cross Talk’ of 29 November
The ‘Cross Talk’ program released today on the internet was dedicated to discussion of an essay recently published by University of Rhode Island professor of political science Nicolai Petro in which he and co-author Ted Snider set out their thinking on what a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine might look like.

Alternative links to the RT show are here:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/crosstalk-possible-peace:2

and

(Video at link.)

The link to Nicolai Petro’s article as published in antiwar.com is here:

https://original.antiwar.com/Nicolai_Pe ... ettlement/

I was very pleased to be invited to be Nicolai’s debating partner on RT, because nearly a year and a half ago I had been his co-author in a similar exercise. Our article was posted on the website of The National Interest on 11 June 2022.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/bu ... ine-202920

June 2022 was just three months into the war and there were many unknowns other than the fact that the war was deadly, was already creating many widows and orphans on both sides, as well as enormous physical damage to civilian infrastructure. The effect of the ‘sanctions from hell’ unleashed against Russia by the United States and its European allies was still very preliminary and unclear. And it was just two months after the sides had seemingly come close to reaching agreement on an end to hostilities that had as its main principle Ukraine’s never joining NATO. We know now exactly that it was outside powers, namely the United States aided and abetted by the United Kingdom, which killed the initialed Russian-Ukrainian agreement, arguing for a war to liberate all the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia with the aid of the Western allies.

But that immovable obstacle was not known in June 2022 and in the situation of that moment, I enthusiastically joined Nicolai in calling for a peace agreement appropriate to a stalemate, an agreement that would protect us all from escalation to a much more dangerous war at the European if not global level. The essay assumed that Crimea would be recognized as Russian once and for all, but that the fate of Novorossiya, meaning the oblasts of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhiye and Kherson, would be put in suspension, remaining in Russian hands pending a referendum to be held in the distant future, 10 or 20 years down the road. That would give all sides time to calm down. Ukraine would join the European Union and its economy would grow, potentially making it attractive to the residents of Novorossiya at some future date. Meanwhile Russia might be expected to do its best to ensure the prosperity of these oblasts with a view to their voting to stay in the Federation when the vote eventually would be held.

I will not now pass judgment on the merits of our June 2022 proposal. But I can say without a moment’s hesitation that the basic concepts in that article are totally unrealistic today. Notwithstanding all the talk in Washington and in Brussels about the Ukraine war having come to an impasse, at its being a stalemate, that description relates only to the ground held by each side. Yes, the line of confrontation has barely moved over the last six months.

However, as some Western military experts have come to acknowledge, the Russians have been fighting a war of attrition not one of territorial expansion. Their strategy conforms to the teachings of Clausewitz, namely that if you destroy the enemy’s war fighting resources, human and material, then everything else comes to you of itself. In that sense, the Russian armed forces have nearly exhausted the human reserves at the disposal of Kiev and are ready to stage their own massive offensive.

Russian elites appreciate these facts and vehemently oppose ending the war in a truce that leaves the Kiev regime intact.

For all of these reasons, I was surprised to see that in his recent article Nicolai Petro persists in proposing an end to the conflict that leaves the fate of Novorossiya in limbo pending referendums to be supervised by the United Nations or some other international organization. Moreover, he goes even further in directions that Russians would find highly offensive, namely the use of Russian state assets currently frozen in the West to finance the redevelopment of Ukrainian provinces. This sounds very much like the demand for ‘reparations’ that we hear now coming out of Kiev, and as Russians remark, it is the losers who pay reparations, not the winners.

My position continues to evolve as the commanding position of the Russians on the ground becomes ever more clear, and as the faltering commitment of the West to continuing support for Ukraine is recognized more and more in mainstream. I believe that Russia will not halt hostilities at the convenience of Washington to suit the needs of the presidential electoral campaign or to allow for a temporary redirection of Washington’s military assets and attention to the Middle East. Russians want a definitive solution to the Ukraine problem, not some temporary patch that comes unstuck in five years time so that a still more vicious war can be initiated by a re-armed Kiev.

Russia has no need of a peace treaty if it succeeds in taking back Kharkov and Kherson, and, in a somewhat more distant time frame, captures Odessa and the Black Sea littoral all the way to Transnistria. This scenario is entirely possible. By pushing back Ukraine in this way, Russia will look after its own security needs sufficiently. Rump Ukraine will be a failed state that can be allowed to join the European Union, where it will be seeking vast financial support for decades. Rump Ukraine can even be allowed to join NATO, which from the Russian perspective, could provide some discipline and forestall attempts to implement insane revanchist provocations that Kiev, left to its own devices, might plan.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/11/29/ ... -november/

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How the west bullied Zelensky into prolonging the war in Ukraine

Now that their plans have gone awry, the thieves are falling out and accusations abound.
Proletarian writers

Wednesday 29 November 2023

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Just a few weeks into Russia’s special military operation, the chance for a quick end to the conflict was wrecked as Nato decided that a peace deal recognising Russia’s security interests was not at all what it wanted to see. The USA, Britain and Germany were all united in pushing for an extension to the war, believing that another month or two of their sanctions blitzkrieg would bring down the Russian government and bring the war to a close on imperialist terms.

As the true scale of the disaster that has overtaken the USA’s proxy war against Russia penetrates even the thickest bourgeois skulls, some of the bitterest mutual recriminations now being vented concern allegations that, were it not for interference by Nato, Washington, the European Union and Boris Johnson, the whole bloody affair could have been wrapped up in the first weeks of the war on terms far better for Kiev than anything remotely on offer now.

Instead, Ukrainian actor-stooge president Volodymyr Zelensky’s apparent softening of stance, renouncing Nato and embracing neutrality, was unceremoniously dumped by the so-called ‘friends of Ukraine’.

The authors of a damning report released in October provide a blow-by-blow account of just how it was that early talks between Kiev and Moscow, talks which arguably could have formed the basis of a workable peace treaty, saving thousands of lives and billions of dollars, were instead deliberately sabotaged by the USA and its Nato sidekicks.

The report concludes: “Based on the publicly available reports and documents, it is not only plain that there was a serious willingness to negotiate on the part of both Ukraine and Russia in March 2022. Apparently, the negotiating parties even agreed on a draft treaty and referendum.

“Zelensky and [Russian president Vladimir] Putin were ready for a bilateral meeting to finalise the outcome of the negotiations.

“Fact is that the main results of the negotiations were based on a proposal by Ukraine, and Zelensky courageously supported them in an interview with Russian journalists on 27 March 2022, even after Nato decided against these peace negotiations. Zelensky had already expressed similar support beforehand in a sign that proves that the intended outcome of the Istanbul negotiations certainly corresponded to Ukrainian interests.

“This makes the western intervention, which prevented an early end to the war, even more disastrous for Ukraine.” (How the chance was lost for a peace settlement of the Ukraine war by Michael von der Schulenburg, November 2023)

And, need one add, this prolongation has likewise been catastrophic for the collective west and its thwarted dreams of regime change in Moscow.

The co-author of the report, retired General Harald Kujat, had been the highest-ranking German officer of the Bundeswehr and at Nato, so let nobody accuse him of being a peacenik or soft on Russia. But his intervention gives us a valuable insight into the vicious in-fighting now besetting global ruling circles, and is worth reading in full.

We can take it as read that such voices as Kujat’s are no less hostile to Russia than are those of anyone else in the establishment. Such critics of the way the war was conducted have no fundamental quarrel with the goal of the proxy war: to balkanise and weaken Russia, making her easy prey to oppression and exploitation by imperialism.

What sows division in the imperialist camp is disagreements over the best way to achieve this. Had the war gone well for the west, all disagreements over ways and means could have been smoothed over, and the criminal stupidity of US president Joe Biden, UK prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg and the rest of that sorry crew would soon be relegated to history and nobody would have bothered to read Kujat’s report.

But the war did not go well for the west.

https://thecommunists.org/2023/11/29/ne ... ne-russia/

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JOHN MEARSHEIMER: THE MYTH THAT PUTIN WAS BENT ON CONQUERING UKRAINE AND CREATING A GREATER RUSSIA
NOVEMBER 30, 2023 NATYLIESB

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By Prof. John Mearsheimer, Substack, 11/26/23

There is a growing body of compelling evidence showing that Russia and Ukraine were involved in serious negotiations to end the war in Ukraine right after it started on 24 February 2022 (see below). These talks were facilitated by Turkish President Recep Erdogan and former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and featured detailed and candid discussions on the terms of a possible settlement.

By all accounts, these negotiations, which took place in March-April 2022, were making real progress when Britain and the US told Ukrainian President Zelensky to abandon them, which he did.

Coverage of these events has focused on how foolish and irresponsible it was for President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Boris Johnson to put an end to these negotiations, given all the death and destruction that Ukraine has suffered since then – in a war that Kyiv is likely to lose.

Yet an especially important aspect of this story regarding the causes of the Ukraine war has received little attention. The well-entrenched conventional wisdom in the West is that President Putin invaded Ukraine to conquer that country and make it part of a Greater Russia. Then, he would move on and conquer other countries in eastern Europe. The counter-argument, which enjoys little support in the West, is that Putin was mainly motivated to invade by the threat of Ukraine joining NATO and becoming a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. For him and other Russian elites, Ukraine in NATO was an existential threat.

The negotiations in March-April 2022 make it clear that the conventional wisdom on the war’s causes is wrong, and the counter-argument is right, for two main reasons. First, the talks were directly focused on satisfying Russia’s demand that Ukraine not become part of NATO and instead become a neutral state. Everyone involved in the negotiations understood that Ukraine’s relationship with NATO was Russia’s core concern. Second, if Putin was bent on conquering all of Ukraine, he would not have agreed to these talks, as their very essence contradicted any possibility of Russia conquering all of Ukraine. One might argue that he participated in these negotiations and talked a lot about neutrality to mask his larger ambitions. There is no evidence, however, to support this line of argument, not to mention that: 1) Russia’s small invasion force was not capable of conquering and occupying all of Ukraine; and 2) it would have made no sense to delay a larger offensive, as it would afford Ukraine time to build up its defenses.

In short, Putin launched a limited attack into Ukraine for the purpose of coercing Zelensky into abandoning Kyiv’s policy of aligning with the West and eventually bringing Ukraine into NATO. Had Britain and the West not intervened to scotch the negotiations, there is good reason to think Putin would have achieved this limited objective and agreed to end the war.

It is also worth remembering that Russia did not annex the Ukrainian oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia until September 2022, well after the talks had ended. Had a deal been reached, Ukraine would almost certainly control a far greater share of its original territory than it does now.

It is becoming increasingly clear that in the case of Ukraine, the level of foolishness and dishonesty among Western elites and the mainstream Western media is stunning.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2023/11/joh ... er-russia/

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Stoltenberg & Kuleba Unintentionally Admitted That Russia Is Stronger Than NATO

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ANDREW KORYBKO
NOV 30, 2023

Russia is so strong that it successfully fended off the combined potential of NATO and its several other dozen partners across the world who collectively contributed to Ukraine’s ultimately failed counteroffensive over the summer.

“NATO’s Proxy War On Russia Through Ukraine Appears To Be Winding Down”, which has prompted the Mainstream Media to precondition the Western public for what could likely become a series of pragmatic compromises next year aimed at freezing the conflict through an armistice. As proof of this in practice, one needs look no further than The Economist admitting Russia’s electronic warfare superiority or Politico dumping on Zelensky by mocking his “dreams” in their latest article about him.

Even officials like NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba have contributed to this trend, albeit unintentionally. For instance, the first admitted that “even with this substantial significant military support from NATO Allies, [Ukraine has] not, over the last year, been able to move the front line. And that just reflects the fact that we should never underestimate Russia.” Although he pledged to keep supporting Ukraine, his words suggested that it won’t make a difference.

As for the second, that top diplomat boasted about how “We are pretty much becoming de facto a NATO army in terms of our technical capacity, management, approaches and principles of running an army.” In one fell swoop, he reaffirmed what the NATO chief unintentionally admitted about his bloc being unable to defeat Russia while also lending credence to Russia’s official assessment of the conflict as a proxy war with NATO. Taken together, Stoltenberg and Kuleba just dealt immense damage to NATO’s reputation.

Dwelling upon their disclosures, it becomes apparent that Russia is so strong that it successfully fended off the combined potential of NATO and its several other dozen partners across the world who collectively contributed to Ukraine’s ultimately failed counteroffensive over the summer. Kuleba’s boast about how his side’s forces nowadays function as a “de facto NATO army” hammers home this point and shows that Stoltenberg wasn’t wrong when he said that “we should never underestimate Russia.”

Comparing those two’s comments, however, reveals a growing disconnect between their respective perceptions of this conflict. Whereas the NATO chief tacitly acknowledges Russia’s strength, Ukraine’s top diplomat continues denying this reality, which isn’t surprising though since it aligns with what Time Magazine described as his boss’ messianic delusions of victory per an unnamed senior advisor. This accounts for why Kiev hasn’t yet complied with reported Western pressure to resume talks with Russia.

Instead, Zelensky inadvertently sparked a witch hunt among his own security services by claiming that so-called “Russian agents” are conspiring to orchestrate a “Maidan 3” against him, which comes amidst his spiraling rivalry with increasingly popular Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny. Stoltenberg has to keep up public appearances about supporting Ukraine ‘as long as it takes’ per the Western mantra despite reading the writing on the wall, but Zelensky and his ilk like Kuleba still really believe they can win.

The divisions between NATO and Ukraine are therefore expected to continue widening, with all that entails for possible friction between them the longer that Kiev keeps operating under its political leadership’s messianic delusions, which could lead to NATO backing Zaluzhny. After all, he shares Stoltenberg’s assessment of Russia’s strength as proven by his admission to The Economist in early November that the conflict has entered a stalemate, unlike Zelensky who still denies it to this day.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/stoltenb ... entionally

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For the murder of civilians in Mariupol...
November 30, 10:58

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Sentencing of ordinary Ukrainian war criminals continues...

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8796773.html

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West Admits Ukraine is Losing Proxy War
NOVEMBER 29, 2023

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A pair of Russian soldiers. Photo: Sputnik.

By Brian Berletic – Nov 27, 2023

After nearly 2 years of portraying the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as unfolding in Kiev and the collective West’s favor, a sudden deluge of admissions have begun saturating Western headlines noting that Ukraine is not only losing, but that there is little or nothing its Western backers can do to change this fact.

What had been a narrative of Ukraine’s steady gains and indomitable fighting spirit has now been replaced by the reality of Ukraine’s catastrophic losses (as well as net territorial losses) and a steady collapse of morale among troops. What had been narratives of Russian forces poorly trained and led, equipped with inadequate quantities of antiquated weapons and dwindling ammunition stockpiles, have now been replaced by admissions that Russia’s military industrial base is out-producing the US and Europe combined while fielding weapon systems either on par with their Western counterparts, or able to surpass Western capabilities entirely.

Ukraine’s Catastrophic Losses
Ukrainian losses, especially after 5 full months of failed offensive operations, are almost impossible to hide now.

The London Telegraph in its article, “Ukraine’s army is running out of men to recruit, and time to win,” published as far back as August of this year admitted:

The war in Ukraine is now one of attrition, fought on terms that increasingly favour Moscow. Kyiv has dealt admirably with shortages of Western equipment so far, but a shortage of manpower – which it is already having to confront – may prove fatal.

The article also claimed:

It’s a brutal but simple calculation: Kyiv is running out of men. US sources have calculated that its armed forces have lost as many as 70,000 killed in action, with another 100,000 injured. While Russian casualties are higher still, the ratio nevertheless favours Moscow, as Ukraine struggles to replace soldiers in the face of a seemingly endless supply of conscripts.

The article paints a bleak picture of continued Ukrainian military operations that are almost certainly unsustainable.

The claim of 70,000 killed in action among Ukrainian troops is a gross underestimate, while claims that “Russian casualties are higher still” are not only unsubstantiated, but contradicted elsewhere among Western sources.

Mediazona, a media platform maintained by US government-backed Russian opposition figures, has tracked Russian casualties from February 2022 onward by allegedly tracking public information regarding the death of Russian soldiers.

Its numbers cannot be entirely verified, but on the few occasions the Russian Ministry of Defense released Russian casualty numbers, they were relatively close to Mediazona’s claims versus the cartoonish claims made by Ukraine’s General Staff – claims that are often unquestionably repeated by Western governments and media organizations.

A more recent article published by Business Insider in late October titled, “Ukraine official says it can’t properly use its Western kit because it has so few soldiers left, report says,” confirms that Ukraine’s losses and resulting manpower crisis is only getting worse.

The article reports:

A Ukrainian official said Ukraine’s army is suffering a manpower shortage that is hampering its ability to use Western-donated weapons, Time magazine reported. Since the start of the war, several Ukrainian officials have blamed their difficulty repelling Russia’s invasion on the slow pace of deliveries by its allies.

However, in the Time report, an unnamed source identified as a close aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted a different problem. “We don’t have the men to use them,” the aide said in reference to the Western weapons. Although Ukraine doesn’t give public figures, Western estimates suggest it has suffered in excess of 100,000 casualties.

In addition to irreversible losses in manpower, Ukraine is also losing territory despite 5 months of intensive offensive operations and the fact that the Russian military leadership has repeatedly stated Russia’s goal is to eliminate Ukraine’s military, not take territory.

The New York Times in a September article titled, “Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One,” would note:

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has struggled to push forward across the wide-open fields in the south. It is facing extensive minefields and hundreds of miles of fortifications — trenches, anti-tank ditches and concrete obstacles — that Russia built last winter to slow Ukrainian vehicles and force them into positions where they could be more easily targeted. When both sides’ gains are added up, Russia now controls nearly 200 square miles more territory in Ukraine compared with the start of the year.

Along with steep losses in manpower and a net loss in territory, Ukraine suffers from an equally damaging loss of equipment. Compounding materiel losses is the fact Western military industrial production is incapable of replacing these losses.


Military Industrial Production: West Running Out as Russia Ramps Up
Last year, Western politicians and the Western media promoted the idea that superior Western military equipment would easily sweep aside Russia’s dwindling numbers of supposedly antiquated weapon systems. One article published by the London Telegraph in early June of this year was even titled, “British-made tanks are about to sweep Putin’s conscripts aside.”

Nothing could have been further from the truth.

Instead, Russian military equipment has proven itself capable if not superior to Western weapon systems and, together with Russia’s massive military industrial base, it has both outnumbered and outfought Ukrainians trained and equipped by the West.

This was admitted in the New York Times’ September article, Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say,” which noted:

Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West.

The article admits that Russia has doubled tank production, increased missile production, and is producing at least as many as 2 million artillery shells a year – more than the US and Europe combined currently produce and more than the US and Europe combined if and when they meet increased production targets between 2025-2027.

A more recent article published by The Economist titled, “Russia is starting to make its superiority in electronic warfare count,” admits that Russia has developed an “impressive range of EW [electronic warfare] capabilities to counter NATO’s highly networked systems.” It explains how Russian EW capabilities have rendered precision-guided weapons provided by NATO to Ukraine ineffective, including GPS-guided Excalibur 155mm artillery shells, JDAM guided bombs, and HIMARS-launched GPS-guided rockets.

The article also discusses the impact Russian EW capabilities have on Ukrainian drones which are lost by the thousands week-to-week. And as Russian EW capabilities disrupt Ukraine’s ability to use guided weapons and drones on and over the battlefield, the article admits Russia is able to produce at least twice as many drones as Ukraine giving Russia yet another quantitative and qualitative advantage.

Despite much of the hype surrounding talk of equipping Ukraine with NATO-provided F-16 fighter aircraft, more sober Western analysts have gradually admitted that between Russia’s vast and growing aerospace forces and its superior integrated air defense systems, NATO-provided F-16s will fare no better than the Soviet-era aircraft Ukraine had and lost throughout the duration of the Special Military Operation.

After months, even years of “game-changers” sent to Ukraine only to prove incapable of matching let alone exceeding Russian military capabilities, the game is indeed revealed to have been changed – in favor of Russia and a military doctrine built on vast military industrial production, cheap-but-effective weapon systems, and most importantly, a doctrine built to fight and win against a peer or near-peer adversary.

This stands in stark contrast to a West who has shaped its military for decades to push over developing or failed states around the globe in military-mismatches, atrophying the technological, industrial, and strategic capabilities the US and its allies would have needed to put in place years ahead of time to “win” their proxy war against Russia in Ukraine.

The “solution” to Russia’s now admitted advantage in terms of quality and quantity on and over the battlefield is to “increase production” and “collect data” on Russian capabilities to then “develop counters to them.” However, these are processes that could take years to yield results, all while Russia continues expanding its capabilities to maintain this qualitative and quantitative edge.

And as this process continues to unfold, the US continues simultaneously seeking a similar conflict with China, which possesses an even larger industrial base than Russia.

One wonders how many lives could have been spared had these recent admissions across the Western media regarding Russia’s actual military capabilities been presented long before provoking conflict with Russia in the first place through Washington and Brussels’ long-standing policy of encroaching upon Russia’s borders. One wonders how many lives may yet be saved if the collective West learns from its current mistakes before repeating them all over again in a senseless conflict triggered by efforts to likewise encroach upon and provoke China.

(New Eastern Outlook)

https://orinocotribune.com/west-admits- ... proxy-war/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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