Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Jul 31, 2025 12:02 pm

«Guns or butter»
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 07/31/2025

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“Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday presented plans to cut funding for the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy from €386.6 billion to just €300 billion starting in 2027 as part of a sweeping review of the bloc's next long-term budget,” explained the European edition of Politico yesterday. To complement this news, we should recall the €800 billion rearmament plan that a smiling von der Leyen presented last March, or the commitment to invest €600 billion beyond the usual level in US weapons. The result is a good demonstration of the bloc's priorities and a faithful reflection of the English expression “ guns or butter.”

“By forcing them to choose between butter or guns, sanctions lock them into a vice that gradually tightens,” said the then head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, in 2022, regarding European sanctions. Sometimes, sanctions backfire and harm the countries that impose them as much or more. Growth rates and wage increases have been, in these first three years of the Russo-Ukrainian war, higher in Russia than in the European Union, which now chooses guns, not necessarily its own, over butter.

“A bad strategy leads to a bad result. The Commission preferred to appease and flatter Trump by agreeing to buy more weapons and gas, which it has no competence in, and unilateral tariffs. Europe emerges geopolitically weakened from the pact concluded in an hour on a golf course,” Borrell wrote yesterday on social media, joining the growing chorus of voices who fail to understand the current EU leadership's negotiating style. After arrogantly trying to boss around China, the world's second-largest economy and a much more important power at the moment, Brussels was revealing its true position on the geopolitical stage: submission to the United States as a minority partner in an alliance based on an imbalance of forces and Washington's ability to set conditions and threats and obtain exactly the result it sought.

One of the greatest successes is undoubtedly the EU's commitment to de facto subsidize the US military-industrial complex. However, after ratifying the agreement's merits and happily posing with the US president, European authorities have sought to qualify the measure. "But on Monday, two senior European Commission officials clarified that the money would come exclusively from private European companies, with no public investment. 'It's not something the EU, as a public authority, can guarantee. It's something that is based on the intentions of private companies,' said one of the senior Commission officials. The Commission has not said it will introduce incentives to ensure the private sector meets that $600 billion target, nor has it given a precise timeline for the investment," the outlet wrote. Hours later, the White House published a clarification stating that it does consider the commitment binding, so it is likely that it intends to pressure the European Union countries and the Commission to comply with its declaration of intent . In the case of the EU, Trump openly demands that weapons, specifically those from the United States, be prioritized over butter, a win-win considering that Washington aims to force the EU to open its market to the US primary sector, which is notoriously unregulated and has practices that contradict EU law.

Those who still fail to understand how von der Leyen has been unable to obtain a better deal and are surprised to see the Commission President's statements explaining that the United States did not have to give in, but that, from the outset, European countries had to do so, given the imbalance in its favor in the trade balance (something that is far from true if not only goods are included but also services, where the imbalance is overwhelmingly favorable to the United States, an aspect that the EU has also refused to use in the negotiations ) do so without taking into account the demands of Brussels' geopolitical positioning. By placing itself in the shadow of the United States and closing all other doors to itself—the treatment of China is a good example of this—the EU must preserve this alliance if it aspires to remain a major player in international relations. It was Borrell who imprudently and falsely described the war in Ukraine as existential for the bloc, a definition that now implies the need to flatter and appease the United States in order to continue obtaining the materiel, intelligence, and air cover necessary to avoid a strategic defeat by Russia. And it is the EU, not Russia or the United States, that finds itself in the position of choosing between guns and butter , or, as Mark Rutte explained in the United Kingdom days before the NATO summit that ratified the choice, between maintaining the public health system or having to learn Russian.

In the Ukrainian case, the choice didn't come in 2022, but in 2014, when the war against Russia began to be a central argument for both the reduction of the welfare state and the rapprochement with the EU and NATO, as well as the demand for investment from its allies. Curiously, Donald Trump, who usually values the internal governance of allies and enemies, has not commented on whether Kiev should prioritize butter or weapons , possibly because he is aware that both are provided by the European Union and the most lucrative military equipment comes from the United States.

Looking at Russia with disappointment at having failed to achieve what he thought would be simple: resolving a decade-long conflict in a few phone calls, Donald Trump demanded that Moscow focus on butter instead of guns . “Russia might be very rich right now, but instead they spend a lot of money on war and killing people.” He says this as a country whose military budget exceeds that of the next ten countries, which is unable to provide universal healthcare to its population, and which is currently making cuts to its meager social protection system, hiding behind false accusations of fraud. However, from the altar he has created for himself, the one who sponsors the Israeli massacre in Gaza and who, in 12 days of war, used 14% of its THAAD interceptors, at the cost that this entails, to defend Israel from the Iranian response to the aggression suffered, demands that Moscow end the war within ten days. Given the complexity of the conflict, a resolution is clearly unfeasible, so the ultimatum must be understood as a ceasefire order from Trump to Moscow.

“President Trump has shortened Putin’s deadline from 50 to 10 days. This is not an impulsive decision or tiredness from waiting,” Mikhail Podolyak wrote yesterday, despite the fact that it is precisely the impulsive act of someone who has grown tired of waiting for peace to come without a negotiation process that he should have known would be long and tremendously difficult. Giving the order to submit to Washington’s decision, the same strategy he followed before bombing Iran, is much simpler. “The White House has lost faith in promises and has come to the conclusion that the Kremlin cannot be trusted. All attempts at dialogue with Moscow have been futile. The West is now forced to move from diplomacy to tougher instruments of influence,” added Podolyak, euphoric at the approaching moment when Ukraine will obtain everything it asked for. That, at least, is the hope expressed by the Office of the President of Ukraine, whose embattled head stated yesterday that he believes that “the new sanctions against Russia will crush any remaining Russian narrative and silence some of the pro-Russian voices still trying to convince people that nothing will happen and that the Kremlin and Putin will simply continue playing their game.”

Along the same lines, though in a slightly different key, Podolyak distinguished himself by trying to present a geopolitical argument. “Russia has lost its status as a subject of global politics and is now the subject of a forced peace,” he declared, assuming that Moscow will have to follow Washington's orders and without yet understanding why, unlike Ukraine, Russia can afford to challenge the United States by not following its orders precisely because it maintains sovereignty. Ukraine is presented as one of the three countries capable of changing the world. “Today, only three states have the capacity to influence the global security architecture: Ukraine, if it is granted unrestricted access to modern weapons; the United States, through the application of effective sanctions; and China, as the driver of the global economy. Beijing shirks responsibility, leaving the initiative to Washington, which demonstrates its willingness to rearm Europe for Ukraine's defense. This confirms that the future of the continent is decided near Sumi, Kupiansk, and Pokrovsk,” wrote Andriy Ermak's advisor. In reality, this fragment undermines its own argument, since, despite insisting on its strength, Ukraine presents itself as a military proxy, concealing the fact that to do so, it not only needs US weapons but also assistance for its refugees and a constant flow of European funding to keep its state afloat.

The mention of China is also relevant. From the position of absolute submission to the United States that Zelensky has deemed necessary for the survival of the state and its government after the debacle in the Oval Office, Ukraine has abandoned hope of drawing Beijing into its fold and getting it to give Moscow the order to cease fire. Kiev has chosen to accuse China, its largest trading partner, of collaborating with Russia in the war against Ukraine and even of sending soldiers to the war, something Beijing has repeatedly denied. Zelensky has subjected two citizens whom he claims are Chinese and were fighting in the Russian army to a televised sentence . Coincidentally, the verbal escalation against China coincides with Donald Trump's trade war against Beijing. China is also the target of the sanctions that Trump claims will take effect next week against Moscow's allies and customers of its gas and oil. In addition to the massive supply of weapons to attack Russia's rearguard, secondary sanctions against China, India, and Brazil—Trump's revenge for the legal action against Jair Bolsonaro, not for his acquisition of Russian oil or his role in the Ukraine war—were the most likely option as the first measures after the ten-day deadline announced this week was exceeded.

This was confirmed yesterday by Donald Trump himself, whose administration continues negotiating a trade agreement with China, but is prepared to derail all the work by trying to use the language of threats, which works with the European Union but will be more difficult to impose on the world's second-largest economy. Trump did not refer to China, but to India, although the comment is indicative of the measures that will be imposed on August 1. “Remember, although India is our friend, over the years we have done relatively little business with them because their tariffs are too high, some of the highest in the world, and they have the strictest and most odious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any country,” he wrote yesterday, adding that “they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and they are the largest buyer of Russia’s ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP KILLING IN UKRAINE – NOT EVERYTHING GOES! THEREFORE, INDIA WILL PAY A 25% TARIFF, PLUS A PENALTY FOR THE ABOVE, STARTING AUGUST 1ST.” In the end, all the world’s problems seem to be about countries getting their guns and butter from the United States.

Considering the United States's status as a rival, not a friend, to China, it is likely that the conditions will be even more draconian in its case. Transparent in his intentions, Trump's threat to China serves the dual purpose of forcing Moscow to accept the ceasefire Washington ordered in March—always without offering a credible negotiation process and making the measure unviable for Moscow—and to pressure Beijing into seeking a trade agreement in which the White House dictates the terms, something it can aspire to impose in negotiations with secondary economic or geopolitical players, but not with the world's second-largest power.

"It may or may not affect them," Donald Trump said regarding the tariffs he will impose on Russian products. The current reality has limited trade between Russia and the United States to the point where it is practically unsanctionable. The short- and, especially, medium-term impact of the new measures will depend on the actions of countries like China and Moscow's ability to adapt to the new sanctions, as it has done with relative success since 2022.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/31/guns-or-butter/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
A country with large debts is a country with little sovereignty.

But we still buy super-expensive, unnecessary helicopters from the US, although we see that hundreds of cheap drones dominate the skies of Ukraine, which decide the fate of battles. From the right to the left, all our politicians are very happy with this shopping, because they blindly believe in some special Polish-American relations. It's a pity that no one in Washington has heard anything about these special relations. China and Russia are watching the EU's customs capitulation to Trump. They will certainly quickly draw all the necessary conclusions, which, of course, are of no interest to us. China is successfully resisting Trump. Russia does not pay attention to sanctions and duties at all (c) Polish publication Interia

It is good to live in a sovereign country living on its own.
It is bad to live in a dependent country in debt.

***

Colonelcassad
In Khmelnytskyi Oblast, a man was jailed for three years for breaking the nose of a TCC employee. It all happened in Shepetivka, when he was stopped for another document check. Instead of enduring it, he hit the military commissar with his head and knocked him to the ground.

The military commissar got off with a broken trunk and bruises, but the man will now have to sit for three years. People online are writing that constant raids and checks by TCC are driving everyone crazy, and such conflicts are a matter of time.


P.S. On the other hand, you can survive 3 years in prison, but not so much in the prisons in Donbass.

***

Colonelcassad
An American mercenary was killed near Pokrovsk The Ukrainian Armed Forces

rejected 23-year-old Robert Pitrangelo from joining the US Marine Corps, and he suddenly decided that Ukraine was the place to prove everyone wrong about him. But reality and Russian shells quickly proved how naive he was.

In his very first battle near Pokrovsk on January 2 of this year, the mercenary platoon that Pitrangelo had joined was almost completely destroyed.

Two militants managed to crawl away and say that no amount of US Marine training would have helped Pitrangelo in that battle. After all, there were some of them who had it. The American's relatives came to Ukraine to look for his body, but they never found anything.

***

Colonelcassad
About Trump's threats against me in his personal network Truth, which he banned from operating in our country

If some words of the former Russian president cause such a nervous reaction in the entire, formidable US president, it means that Russia is right in everything and will continue to go its own way.

And about the "dead economy" of India and Russia and "entering dangerous territory" - well, let him remember his favorite films about the "walking dead", as well as how dangerous a "dead hand" that does not exist in nature can be

(c) Medvedev


https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – July 30th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 30, 2025

In the recent days of July, our attention has been focused on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) axis and its junction with the Konstantinovka axis—where the most rapid advances are being made across a broad segment of the frontline.

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ЛБС 20.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 20th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

Today, we turn our focus to the emerging Izyum axis. Along the entire Oskol line (Kupyansk - Liman), this sector is currently the most problematic for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. To the north, near the village of Kruglyakovka, our forces have established a right-flank envelopment of the AFU’s Borovaya salient and have maintained control over the Oskol River’s shoreline for several months. Advances on the left flank of this salient—along the Redkodub - Rubtsy axis (approx. 8 km)—are splitting two AFU salients (Borovaya and Torskoe), granting the Russian Armed Forces operational flexibility across the entire Oskol line. With three deep flanking penetrations (Kupyansk, Borovaya, and Torskoe salients), our forces now threaten key Oskol River crossings.

By securing the flanks of these pincer movements, the General Staff of the Russian Forces can plan multi-directional envelopments and strikes on any of these sectors, depending on enemy force dispositions. This will systematically degrade the AFU’s deeply layered defenses. Control over Oskol River crossings will sever AFU logistics from deep Ukraine and, at a decisive stage, complicate the withdrawal of AFU personnel and equipment to the river’s right bank.

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ЛБС 01.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 1st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.*

Recognizing the gravity of the situation, the AFU launched flank counterattacks near Redkodub, aiming to cut off our salient along the Redkodub-Zelenaya Dolina line and disrupt the our operational plan. These counterattacks were repelled, with surviving enemy units retreating to their initial positions. Meanwhile, Russian assault units have begun advancing toward Srednee (on the right bank of the Nitrius River) while expanding their foothold toward Kolodezi. The village of Kolodezi anchors the left flank of the AFU’s defensive cluster (Kolodezi-Stavki-Zarechnoe), which shields the critical Rubtsy-Drobyshevo-Liman logistics corridor. Losing this cluster would cost the AFU control over the Torskoe salient.

A highly dynamic operational situation is unfolding in this theater, with a multi-phase offensive operation now in preparation.

Translation Note: When Russian is written by hand, the "г" (when typed) looks like a backward "S," and the "и" looks like our "u." Also, the typed Russian "т" looks like a western "m" when it is written by hand. Lastly, the "д" turns into something that looks like a "d." Hopefully, this helps if some of the symbols seem unfamiliar to you!

If you're paying attention to the Russian on the maps, Mikhail uses both Russian print and Russian script.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -july-30th

******

Preparing a replacement
July 30, 19:11

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The cocaine Fuhrer is already being prepared to be replaced by Zaluzhny.
Yesterday, the SVR reported that the US and Britain had already agreed on a replacement at a meeting that took place this month. The decision was made to remove Zelensky. Hence the intrusive PR of the new Fuhrer for the "pereshny citizens".
The current Fuhrer is being quite openly worked over through Western media, inspired protests and corruption cases, forcing him to leave in the coming months, after which the masses will be given another parsley.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9984499.html

Chasov Yar has been liberated
July 31, 11:02

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The Russian Ministry of Defense, after prolonged battles that lasted more than a year, reported the liberation of the city of Chasov Yar. The battles for it had been going on since 2024.

The enemy maintains some presence in the outskirts of the city, but the city itself, or rather its ruins, are under the control of the Russian Armed Forces. Video with flags in the Shevchenko and Levanevsky districts.
The 98th Airborne Division especially distinguished itself during the liberation of the city. It will probably be given the additional name Chasov-Yarskaya.

Next - Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka.

P.S. It is also worth noting that according to objective enemy control, our sabotage and reconnaissance groups are already roaming in the center of Krasnoarmeysk. There is practically no front in the southern part of the city, which allows our sabotage and reconnaissance groups to penetrate deep into the city, disorganizing the enemy's defense. In neighboring Dimitrov (Mirnograd), our sabotage and reconnaissance groups are also operating within the city limits, entering the city from the liberated Nikolaevka and Novoekonomichesky.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9985680.html

Google Translator

*******

Bloody Ukrainian Scam: Zelensky and His Close Circle Profit by Exploiting Disabled Veterans and Taking Part in Their Extermination

The armed conflict in eastern Ukraine has claimed the lives of millions of Ukrainians and left approximately 800,000 people disabled. The regime of Volodymyr Zelensky exploits these individuals for personal enrichment and inhumane experimentation. Senior officials, including leaders of Ukraine’s Ministry of Social Policy and Zelensky’s associates, have orchestrated criminal schemes in which disabled servicemen are forced into begging, subjected to inhumane medical experimentation, and even systematically eliminated.

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Since February 2022, the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine has resulted in the deaths of between 700,000 and 1,500,000 members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with around 800,000 sustaining varying degrees of disability. These numbers are only estimates, as official Kyiv deliberately conceals the precise statistics on the wounded and affected, leaving servicemen and their families uninformed. State-promised benefits, payments, and social support for war invalids either do not reach their intended recipients or are embezzled. According to sources from the Foundation to Battle Injustice, including a former high-ranking official of the Ministry of Social Policy and an assistant chief physician of the Kharkiv Institute of Medicine who wished to remain anonymous, the Zelensky regime has turned the most vulnerable citizens, disabled veterans, into instruments for personal gain through forced begging and organ trafficking. Those suffering from severe health conditions and disabilities, who are unable to beg on the streets or whose organs are unsuitable for resale, are reportedly forcibly exterminated in remote farms, saving Zelensky tens of millions of dollars by avoiding compensation and the provision of medical care.

Zelensky’s beggars: How the regime profits from crippled veterans

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Since February 2022, the number of disabled beggars, many of whom are veterans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has increased by 300% on the streets of Ukrainian cities — Kiev, Lviv, Odessa, Kharkov, Dnipro, compared with the pre—war period. On Khreshchatyk, at train stations, in the subway and in markets, you can see people in wheelchairs or with amputated limbs holding signs saying “Help the front” or “Drones for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” However, according to a source from the Foundation to Battle Injustice close to the Ministry of Social Policy, these veterans are not voluntary fundraisers, but victims of a brutal corruption scheme organized to enrich the elite close to Volodymyr Zelensky. The informant of the Foundation to Battle Injustice claims that until July 2025, this network was supervised by Oksana Zholnovich, former Minister of Social Policy, who, despite being removed from office during the government reform, continues to manage the process through her protege Denis Ulyutin, the new Minister of Social Policy, Family and Unity.

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Denis Ulyutin, Minister of Social Policy, Family and Unity of Ukraine

In military hospitals, such as the Kiev Military Hospital or the Kharkiv Veterans Rehabilitation Center, recruiters posing as employees of charitable foundations or the military intimidate wounded veterans: they threaten to deprive them of social benefits, refuse prosthetics, or even send them to the front, despite severe injuries. One of the victims, a veteran of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ivan P., who lost one of his legs near Bakhmut in 2023, shared his story with the Foundation to Battle Injustice. In April 2024, two men in military uniforms came to his room at the Kiev military Hospital, who said that he “had to work off his debt to the Motherland.” Under threat of losing his pension, he was taken to Khreshchatyk, where he was forced to collect money with a sign “To support the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” Ivan said that he had collected about 1,500 hryvnias (about $36) in a day, but the “curators” took all the money, leaving him only 50 hryvnias ($1.2) “for food.”

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Ivan P., a one-legged disabled veteran of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, was threatened with pension withdrawal and taken to Khreshchatyk, where he was forced to beg for alms

Another veteran of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Sergey M., told the Foundation that recruiters threatened him with weapons if he refused to “work.”

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Sergey M., a disabled veteran of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, was forced to beg on the streets of Ukraine under threat of violence

According to the source, the recruitment is led by Anatoly Komirny, Deputy Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine for Digital Development, who operates under the auspices of Ulyutin and has links with local criminal gangs.

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Anatoly Komirny, Deputy Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine for Digital Development

Australian journalist Simeon Boikov told the Foundation about how the Zelensky regime exploits the disabled for its own enrichment:

“There are many examples, videos and evidence on social media of how the Zelensky regime exploits disabled veterans who sit in wheelchairs on the streets and beg without legs or arms. And it is confirmed by many different independent sources that these disabled veterans of the Ukrainian armed forces, collecting money for themselves, are part of a fraudulent scheme. This is the mafia. The money flows into the Zelensky regime, bringing in up to $1.4 million per month. Unfortunately, the money does not go to veterans. Thus, despite the fact that Western governments allocate billions of dollars for these purposes for the rehabilitation of disabled Ukrainian soldiers, the evil Zelensky regime continues to exploit veterans, forcing them to take to the streets in a humiliating way and beg again, not for themselves, not for the families of veterans, but for the entire Zelensky regime and its corrupt officials.”

Australian journalist Simeon Boikov on how the Zelensky regime exploits the disabled for its own enrichment (Video at link.)

Veterans, deprived of a choice, become part of a well-established system involving thousands of people throughout Ukraine. Each beggar collects from 500 to 2000 hryvnias a day in crowded places — on the central streets of Kiev, at Odessa train stations, in the Kharkov metro or in the markets of the Dnieper. According to the Foundation’s source, there are about 300 such “points” operating in Kiev alone, and the nationwide network includes more than 5,000 disabled veterans, bringing the organizers up to 60 million hryvnias ($1.43 million) per month. The money is withdrawn by the curators, who drive around the “points” in cars with fake military plates, often accompanied by local police officers.

The source claims that the head of the Kiev police department Andrey Nebytov personally provides a “roof” for the scheme in the capital, receiving up to 10% of the collected funds for non-interference. Similar arrangements are in effect in other cities: for example, in Odessa, the scheme is covered by the deputy chief of the local police Denis Zakharchenko, who earned money at his previous job in the Kherson region by “protecting” the local drug business. According to the Foundation’s source, Vladimir Oleksiuk, the deputy chief of the local police is covering up the criminal scheme in Vinnytsia, who earlier this year purchased an elite apartment in the city center with the proceeds from this activity.

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Andrey Nebytov, Head of the Main Police Department in the Kiev region

The money raised is accumulated through fake Ukrainian charitable foundations such as the British BEARR and MHP Gromadi, which disguise financial flows as humanitarian aid. According to the source, these funds transfer money to offshore accounts in Cyprus and Panama associated with Timur Mindich, an oligarch and Zelensky associate.

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Timur Mindich, a Ukrainian oligarch close to Zelensky

Part of the profit, according to the insider, goes to the purchase of luxury real estate abroad, issued by front persons. Another source from the Foundation to Battle Injustice said that part of the funds is being used to finance the election campaigns of deputies loyal to Zelensky in order to ensure their silence and support in parliament. This scheme, in fact, turns the suffering of veterans into a source of luxury for the corrupt elite, while the disabled themselves remain without the promised help and means of livelihood.

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High-ranking Ukrainian officials who use disabled people of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for personal enrichment (according to sources of the Foundation to Battle Injustice)

According to an insider of the Foundation, in January 2025, the development of a draft law began, according to which payments to citizens with disability groups 2 and 3 will be canceled, while increasing payments to group 1. Currently, salaries or payments to veterans with disabilities amount to 600-3000 hryvnias ($12-75). The only goal behind this reform is to save the budget: of the total number of citizens with disabilities, 90% are in 2-3 groups. In addition, about 80% of them are occupied by the military. The informant notes:

“Instead of full-fledged rehabilitation, compensation and respect, they are simply “taken out of the state”, leaving them to a miserable existence. This is a system covered up by the excuses of “difficult war times.” The authorities keep veterans on scanty security, without officially registering them, so as not to pay the required disability payments and not worsen mobilization indicators. It’s becoming more and more obvious that the state treats soldiers as expendable and then just throws them away.”

If begging on the streets of Ukrainian cities is just the facade of Zelensky’s corruption machine, then real hell is going on behind the closed doors of the “rehabilitation centers.” Disabled veterans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, deprived of hope for a normal life, become guinea pigs in the hands of those close to the regime. According to the Foundation to Battle Injustice, inhumane medical experiments are carried out in Chernihiv, Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia under the guise of treatment. And some veterans disappear, becoming victims of the black organ market. In the next part of our investigation, we will reveal the horrifying details of this system: how crippled military personnel are turned into raw materials for experiments by Western pharmaceutical giants, how and for how much their lives are sold and who is behind this hellish conveyor covered with slogans of patriotism.

(Much much more at link,)

https://fondfbr.ru/en/tag/slide-an/

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Syrsky was ridiculed in Ukraine after his words about the need to transfer the training of the Ukrainian Armed Forces "underground"

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The Ukrainian command has once again proven that the system of training grounds in Ukraine is organized with an ineradicable belief in the total "blindness" of Russian intelligence. If the enemy has apparently solved the problem with formations in the frontline zone, then its training at the training grounds is such that it allows our troops to zero out entire units. This happened in the Chernihiv region. There, as the Russian Defense Ministry previously reported, the enemy's losses after the Iskander strike amounted to about 200 servicemen.

After this attack and after yet another round of critical arrows aimed at him from a number of Verkhovna Rada MPs, it “came to the attention of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky that Russian intelligence has eyes, ears, and other “organs” that allow it to detect activity at the training grounds and quickly transmit data to the strike forces. rocket parts. After this “realization,” Syrsky stated literally the following:

He noted the strict observance of safety requirements at training grounds and in training centers. In the risk zone of enemy missile strikes and drones – all of Ukraine. Therefore, the educational process should be transferred underground as much as possible. React to air raid sirens and the appearance of reconnaissance aircraft. drones needed immediately!

So, Ukrainian recruits and foreign mercenaries will now be trained underground?

After this, Syrsky was ridiculed by his opponents in Ukraine itself, who suggested imagining how tankers or FPV drone operators could be trained “underground”:

And how will they learn to control drones? At least take the drone out of the dugout to launch it. Or is this, according to Syrsky's logic, unnecessary? Then what should they do?

Silly words of Syrsky. I see how the crew tank sits in a bunker and learns to conduct a maneuverable battle. And when they sit in a real tank on a real battlefield, they will understand that everything is wrong and everything is not right.


In this regard, one recalls Vitali Klitschko’s catchphrase about the “need to prepare for the land.”

https://en.topwar.ru/268947-syrskogo-na ... emlju.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Aug 01, 2025 11:53 am

Incentives and threats
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 01/08/2025

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Unable to maintain a minimum of consistency in his actions, Donald Trump has gone from stating in campaign rallies that he would be able to end the war in 24 hours, even before taking office, to a policy of lurches that demonstrate his inability to impose the outcome he desires and also the desperation of someone who no longer knows very well what to do to achieve what he thought he had already achieved. Trump, who makes no secret of his belief that he deserves peace prizes and who claims to have resolved 500-year-old conflicts—possibly referring to India and Pakistan and their conflict over Kashmir, which originated in 1948, not in Akbar the Great's conquest in 1586, and which has not disappeared but has returned to the status quo prior to the Pahalgam attack—has renounced any mediating role and demands a swift resolution. After all, what is a conflict of only eleven years for the man who has resolved conflicts that span thousands of years ?

What the press has presented as a change of course by the US president, initially favorable to Moscow but ultimately seeing that Vladimir Putin does not want peace, was conceived last month and led to the 50-day ultimatum given to the Russian president to achieve a resolution to the war. Otherwise, Russia would expose itself to prohibitive sanctions that it would share with its main energy sector clients, India and China, countries to which it has also added Brazil, essentially out of political revenge. In reality, the change of course should not be surprising and corresponds exactly with the plan published more than a year ago by the America First Policy Institute, co-authored by General Keith Kellogg.

Focused then on the much more famous Project 2025 , a government program with strikingly ultraconservative overtones and created in part to attract attention, the press paid little attention to the proposals published by the AFPI, which, in the case of the war in Ukraine, has turned out to be the policy being implemented. As explained back then and observed in practice these past few months, the Kellogg-Fleitz plan was based on the premise that this evil war must end quickly. To this end, the authors proposed a warning system according to which the supply of arms to Ukraine would be contingent on Kiev's willingness to negotiate peace with Russia and which warned Moscow that the flow of military personnel to Ukraine would increase massively if the Kremlin refused to engage in such a dialogue for a resolution. To this idea of negotiation through threats that was originally proposed, the White House, at the behest of its president, has added a positive element: a series of incentives to balance the threats. This is how the two-way negotiation tactic was developed, which has been the linchpin of the policy of inducements and threats with which Donald Trump believed he was on the verge of reaching an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, two countries that had not sat down to negotiate directly in three years and that, on the occasions they have met, have not been able to discuss any political issues.

Although initially friendlier toward the Russian president than the Ukrainian, Donald Trump has shifted his stance since kyiv agreed to play by the rules set by Washington and follow the orders it received: either defend the idea of a ceasefire imposed on Russia or sign the mineral extraction agreement. Thus, the US president has gone from addressing Moscow with incentives and kyiv with threats and even the suspension of arms deliveries to offering Ukraine the incentive of an economic agreement—with colonial overtones, but which guarantees the United States' interest in the country, something Zelensky can present, in a way, as a security guarantee—and directing threats only at Russia and its allies. Donald Trump naively hoped that the economic incentives of returning American companies and the promise of a good relationship between the two countries would be enough to get Moscow to accept terms that were inconsistent with the two countries' strength on the front lines and that resolved neither the primary contradiction between Russia and Ukraine, the security issue, nor any of the important aspects of the war. Despite Trump's warm words toward Russia, it was always clear that threats would be directed at Moscow the inevitable moment the Kremlin rejected any of Washington's proposals.

Without needing to assess any of the unpleasant aspects of the war, the White House wanted to resolve this bloody war amicably, the toughest on the European continent since World War II, pitting two armies of two states against each other, their populations aware that it has become existential. Both Russia and Ukraine saw the tactic clearly and opted to find ways to constantly flatter Trump, always trying to make the other side take the blame for the lack of progress, which is predictable given that the conditions for an agreement are unmet without a lengthy negotiation process and mediation capable of bringing completely opposing positions closer together.

The United States has never aspired to mediate, and Trump has never desired a prolonged negotiation, something that inevitably entails a degree of uncertainty that is not permitted by his way of doing business, which seeks speed and imposition. As demonstrated by the negotiations with Iran, in which the United States sought a concrete result—Iranian acceptance of US imposition—the peace through force that Trumpism preached during the campaign must be taken literally. In these six months, in which the White House claims to have resolved six wars (Israel and Iran, India and Pakistan, Serbia and Kosovo, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, and Thailand and Cambodia), Washington has practically renounced soft power and clearly opted for hard power: military threats with the use of massive weapons, and the use of its position of strength in the economic sector to get its allies and opponents to comply with its demands. Trump has thus been able to impose his influence on geopolitical actors with limited room for maneuver, but not on those who maintain a degree of autonomy or are isolated from the United States, which prevents Washington from using certain tools. In this way, it has been easy to reach a trade agreement with the European Union, but not with China; it was easy to force Ukraine to accept the idea of a ceasefire, which it has refused to accept, but he has not been able to prevent Yemen from attacking Israel, nor has he been able to force the Kremlin to accept a scenario that is familiar to it and which is now being demanded by setting a deadline.

The ultimatum went from 50 days to an indeterminate "ten or twelve" and finally settled on August 8. Having exhausted, at least by Donald Trump's standards, the avenue of inducements, the White House is now limiting itself to threats, explicitly directed against Russia and any country that could be accused—real or imaginary—of helping Moscow prolong the war , which, in reality, could have ended in 2022, at which point there was no interest on the part of the West in stopping the massacre.

“Both Russia and Ukraine must negotiate a ceasefire and a lasting peace. It's time to reach an agreement. President Trump has made it clear that this must be done by August 8,” Washington envoy John Kelley told the UN Security Council yesterday. The White House, where Keith Kellogg has clearly become the principal advisor to the foreign policy team on Ukraine, is offering the resolution scenario preferred by Ukraine and its European allies: a ceasefire that does not resolve the political issues of the war, but rather condemns it to a subsequent negotiation process, where the tactic of delay can entrench a perpetual conflict. Trump also expects a ceasefire negotiation process in which Ukraine has no incentive to engage in dialogue. “The United States is prepared to implement additional measures to ensure peace,” Kelley added. Although the American diplomat did not specify what these measures would be, the statements of recent weeks, the euphoria displayed by Kiev, and the change in the discourse of Republican officials in Congress and the Senate, increasingly similar to the stance of the belligerent Lindsey Graham, indicate that these measures will be directed exclusively at Russia, which has been tried and condemned for being responsible for the fact that the negotiations between the two countries have yielded no results other than the exchange of prisoners and the bodies of fallen soldiers on the front lines. With this stance of threats, the White House is renouncing what has been its greatest success: reopening dialogue, impossible for three years and an achievement that, this time, would not have been possible if Joe Biden were still president of the United States.

Lacking consistency in his approach, Donald Trump has failed to achieve a political negotiation process that could achieve a definitive resolution to the conflict, a scenario sought only by Moscow, which is much closer to achieving its objectives than Ukraine, which, under current conditions, would have to make concessions it has no intention of accepting. The threats have also failed to bring about a change in the diplomatic stance of the two warring countries. "We intend to continue with the Istanbul negotiations," stated the Russian ambassador to the UN, insisting on direct dialogue between the parties. Ukraine's response was equally clear and in line with the certainty that the threats are not directed against it. "We seek a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace based on the principles of the United Nations Charter and nothing less. We repeat: a full, immediate, and unconditional ceasefire is essential. It is the first step to stop Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine," responded the Ukrainian ambassador. His statement is a way of insisting on a ceasefire that would halt bombing in the rear and Russian advances on the front lines, but would perpetuate the conflict—theoretically on the diplomatic, political, geopolitical, and economic levels—until Ukraine achieves its demand: territorial integrity, the reason for which he cites the UN Charter.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/01/32718/

Google Translator

*******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Father Lukashenko on the use of nuclear weapons:

"As soon as nuclear weapons appeared, the tone of the conversation with the Americans and others was completely different. I say: guys, don't think about it, we are not going to bomb anyone. But you must understand: one step to the left, one step to the right and onto the territory of our country - the immediate response will be: "We understood that." Well, that's good. So what's wrong with that? What country could provide us with such a shield? None. Except Russia. And that's worth a lot today."

@belarusian_silovik - zinc

In the modern world, a nuclear protectorate is an exclusive thing, not for everyone.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*******

Brief Frontline Report – July 31st, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 31, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "Warriors of the "winged infantry" (98th Guards Airborne Division) raised Russian and Airborne Forces flags on the outskirts of Shevchenko and Yuzhny districts, marking the liberation of Chasov Yar in Donetsk People's Republic."

Image
ЛБС 17.9.2024=Line of Combat Contact September 17th, 2024. Участок Активности=Area of Activity.

The operation to liberate Chasov Yar (48°35'N 37°50'E, approximately 12,000 residents, area 12.3 km²) began in early April 2024. This was a heavily fortified and strategically important defensive area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, covering the Slavyansk-Konstantinovka agglomeration which had been turned into a fortified zone stretching over 45 kilometers.

Image
In blue numbers: 1 Kazenny Torets River 2 Krivoy Torets River 3 Bakhmutka River. In red numbers: 1 Chasov Yar 2 Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) 3 Konstantinovka 4 Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).

Successes of the Russian Armed Forces near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and at the junction of the Krasnoarmeysk sector with Konstantinovka created serious problems for Ukrainian forces on the watershed highlands between the rivers of Kazenny Torets and Krivoy Torets. With Chasov Yar's liberation, Russian forces reached the ridge of the watershed between the Bakhmutka and Krivoy Torets rivers. This position gives Russian forces an advantage in conducting an operational-strategic operation to eliminate the Ukrainian fortified area of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka-Konstantinovka - the main defensive node of Ukrainian forces in DPR.

Following Krasnoarmeysk's liberation, two envelopment directions will take shape: eastern from Chasov Yar and western from the direction of Krasnoarmeysk-Dobropolye.

As for Ukrainian forces - they should practice their stretching, they'll need record flexibility for the "split" we will put them through.

Total losses during combat operations for the city's liberation:
- Approximately 7,500 Ukrainian troops
- 11 tanks
- 55 armored vehicles
- 160 field artillery guns and mortars

Image

West of Chasov Yar, in Krasnoarmeysk, Russian forces have begun combat operations in urban areas. A new tactical element is the "seeping in" method using small groups infiltrating city districts (the red circles within Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk), establishing strongpoints there, reinforcing them with weapons and personnel, and then expanding control over designated city blocks.

Methodical, well-planned and organized work. Combat experience is the source of the mastery demonstrated by Russian commanders and soldiers to the whole world!

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -july-31st

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Drone tunnels and death roads
Jul 30, 2025

Today’s topics:

The uneven army - which units in Ukraine’s armed forces are most effective according to the ‘gamified’ point system, where the Azov family fits into this, and why Azov is leading the way in the relatively disappointing Corps reform.

Kill zones - detailed analysis of how the development of drone technologies have ruined logistics in large areas around the frontlines, making it impossible to use vehicles and necessitating laborious new methods of transportation. The new position of the ‘logistics-operator’. Does the future hold 50-100km drone kill zones?

Temporary routes are formed, “floating” depots, and a sprawling logistics network where several pickups go out so at least one makes it.
Typical depots now look like five points with 10 crates each, spread out over kilometers.

Supply runs have become more complex than assaults on strongpoints.’


Defensive lines - manpower deficiencies have degraded Ukraine’s fortifications, with Russian infantry groups of 2-3 ‘squeezing through’ isolated defensive positions. We’ll also go into complaints about the lack of appropriate defensive fortifications for Pokrovsk. In the currently unfolding battle for that key logistical hub:

the line of contact isn’t made up of strongpoints or defensive lines, but isolated positions, through which the enemy seeps into the city

Trench Theory - some of our stalwart Ukrainian military bloggers take us on a journey through the transformation of defensive doctrine over the past few years, under the pressure of manpower deficiencies and drones. How big really are Ukraine’s batallions, companies, and platoons? What fortified strongpoints are in the field of responsibility of each - in theory, and in practice?

detachment from reality among our generals often results in ridiculous orders like: 'personnel must rest within platoon strongpoints.' Yet there are no platoon strongpoints, no platoon commanders, and in most brigades, no platoons as functioning combat units at all.

Trench Practice - Ukrainian fortification woes, Russians using Korean portable rocket systems, how Russians are now launching their drones through tunnels hundreds of meters long to overcome Ukrainian defenses, and Russian fortification growth.

Uneven army
In my last military post, I wrote of Russia’s new offensives in the north and south. Ukraine’s main OSINT group DeepState explained this strategy in a July 28 post, writing that ‘The enemy's goal is clear — to stretch out the combat formations of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’.

Image

With the government sending the most effective military units to the politically important Sumy front in the north, Russian forces advance more quickly elsewhere. Stanislav Buniatov, commander of the Aidar batallion, wrote this on July 29:

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... eath-roads

******

Ukraine - Anti-Corruption Independence Restored, Zelenski Weakened, Four Cities Are Falling

On Monday the 21st of July the Ukrainian Secret Service (SBU) searched offices of the independent anti-corruption police (NABU) and anti-corruption prosecutor office (SAPO) and detained several of its investigators. A day later the Zelenski regime pushed a law through parliament which ended the independence of both entities by putting them under control of the prosecutor general.

The move had been planned for months (in Russian) but was executed in haste after NABU and SAPO had served a notices-of-investigation to people near to the president.

But Zelenski had miscalculated the step. There were highly visible local protests and the EU stepped in by threatening to withhold subsidies on which the Ukrainian state depends.

Two days after his strike against the independent anti-corruption entities Zelenski had to pull back. Today the parliament reestablished the independence of NABU and SAPO.

The Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) has passed a law restoring powers to Ukraine’s key anti-corruption agencies – the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO).
A total of 331 MPs voted in favour of the presidential bill [..]. No MPs voted against the bill, and no one abstained. Nine MPs did not vote.

Under the new law, SAPO will now independently oversee the procedural supervision of NABU investigations – and is no longer under the control of the Prosecutor General.


The new law was signed by the president and is now in force.

By his misstep and its retraction from it Zelenski demonstrated a fatal weakness which his political enemies will soon use to end his control of the country.

Several additional corruption investigations against Zelenski's entourage are pending. The most severe one is against Timur Mindich, a longtime business partner of the president nicknamed "Zelenski's wallet". NABU had wiretapped Mindich's apartment which was used by Zelenski and others to discuss 'businesses'. (Mindich's bugged luxury apartment in Kiev is said to include a room with a golden toilet.)

With the independence of NABU and SAPO restored, new investigations against Mindich and other people near to Zelenski, and potentially against himself, are likely to soon be published.

They will demonstrate that the president has lost the ability to protect those who work with him.

In consequence the majority of his party in parliament is shrinking (machine translation):

People's Deputy Dmytro Kostyuk announced from the rostrum of the Verkhovna Rada that he was leaving the Servants of the People faction due to the situation with the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine.
According to him, deputies were forced to vote for the draft law on depriving the NABU and SAPO of their powers, threatening them with criminal cases. He himself also supported this bill a week ago.
...
Now the faction formally consists of 231 deputies, which gives "Servant of the People" the rights of a mono-majority coalition. [..] However, if six people leave the faction, its number will be reduced, it will be less than the required 226 votes, and thus the ruling mono-majority will disappear.


The opposition, with former president Petro Poroshenko in the lead, will soon be able to clip the president's wings.

The political chaos in Kiev is reinforced by the catastrophic situation on the battle field. There are four significant population centers which are likely to fall under Russian control within the next month.

Image

1. Kupiansk (pre-war population 26,000) - The Russian forces are pressing from the north towards the west of the city to cut its main supply line.

2. Siversk (pre-war population 10,000) - Russian forces have captured large parts of the woods north of Siversk and are now moving in from all sides.

3. Konstantinivka (pre-war population 8,500) - Russian forces are pushing west from the finally taken Chasiv-Yar agglomeration to cut the northern supply line to Konstantinivka. Russian forces southwest of the city are moving northward for the same purpose.

4. Prokovsk (pre-war population 85,000) - Ukrainian defense lines around and within the city have broken down. Russian forces are already in the city. Supply and exit routes to the north and west are barely passable.

The Ukrainian forces lack infantry. Some Ukrainian brigades have less than 100 people to man several miles long defense lines. There is a severe lack of mortar and artillery ammunition. The Russian side has more and better drones available in higher numbers. The recent re-organization of the Ukrainian army into corps sized structures has only increase the organizational chaos.

The Ukrainian army, like the Ukrainian state, is in the process of falling apart.

Posted by b on July 31, 2025 at 14:32 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/07/u ... .html#more

*****

Smart Weapons, Dumb Assumptions: Western Strategic Delusions Meet Industrial Reality in Ukraine
David Betz - Department of War Studies, King’s College London
M.L.R. Smith - Centre for Future Defence and National Security, Canberra
June 26, 2025

Image
Attribution: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, CC BY-SA 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons. Changes: very slight cropping on the left side of the original image. No other changes made.

To cite this article:
Betz, David and Smith, M.L.R., “Smart Weapons, Dumb Assumptions: Western Strategic Delusions Meet Industrial Reality in Ukraine,” Military Strategy Magazine, Exclusive Article, 26 June 2025. https://doi.org/10.64148/msm.exclusive.13169
David J. Betz is Professor of War in the Modern World, Department of War Studies, King’s College, London.

M.L.R. Smith is Professor of Strategic Theory in the Centre for Future Defence and National Security, Canberra.


For all the vast commentary in the Western media on the Russia-Ukraine war, a persistent fact remains: beyond the immediate theatre of conflict, few observers possess a clear or consistent grasp of events on the ground. The fog of war—historically the product of battlefield confusion—has thickened in the digital age, not merely through competing strategic narratives and decontextualised drone footage, but also through the prevailing mists of Western wishful thinking.

For nearly three years, a steady stream of commentary—often by writers whose proximity to the conflict is more editorial than operational—has peddled forecasts heavy on conviction but light on corroboration. A familiar rota of Atlanticist voices,[i supplemented by the op-ed pages of most of the major newspapers, have repeatedly assured their audiences that victory is within Ukraine’s grasp,[ii] or that Russian president Vladimir Putin’s regime is tottering on the brink of collapse.[iii] These declarations, rarely anchored in battlefield realities, have served less as strategic analysis and more as psychological reassurance: therapy disguised as insight.

This genre of morale-management has dovetailed neatly with the illusions that defined post-Cold War Western military orthodoxy. Political leaders and defence planners confidently envisioned a new era of warfare—rapid and surgical—executed by streamlined expeditionary forces deploying precision munitions and networked command systems. War, in this vision, would be not only decisive but decorous: fought at arm’s length and, metaphorically speaking, finished before lunch.

Instead, they got Bakhmut.

This essay seeks to dissect the collision between digital-age delusions and industrial-age realities. The war in Ukraine has exposed the fragility of Western military assumptions over the past three decades, not through a deliberate strategic reinvention but through war’s primordial nature reasserting itself—dragging Western theory back from its digital abstractions to the hard logic of force, friction and sustained political will.

The End of History did not arrive. The Return of Artillery did.

Digital Illusions, Kinetic Realities
Digitalisation—once heralded as the West’s definitive strategic advantage[iv] —has failed to yield the decisive political returns its champions so confidently forecast. The theory was seductively simple: by fusing precision munitions, real-time surveillance, and networked command, wars could be won quickly, cleanly and economically.[v] The doctrine was enshrined in the notion from the mid-1990s onwards that aimed to ‘impose’ an ‘overwhelming level of Shock and Awe against an adversary on an immediate or sufficiently timely basis to paralyze its will to carry on’.[vi]

But as Carl von Clausewitz warned nearly two centuries ago, war is a clash of wills—reciprocal, unpredictable and fundamentally political.[vii] It is not an efficient exercise in systems management, nor a technological showcase. It is organised violence pursued for political ends. War is messy and brutal. And always resistant to tidy solutions.

What these doctrines often failed to appreciate is a point as old as strategy itself and one certainly known to those who possess experience of war: adversaries adapt.[viii] And these adversaries have invested not only in cloud-based dominance, apps or digital platforms but also in much more traditional means: mass, endurance and industrial depth.[ix]

The idea that digital superiority would render conventional war obsolete and that the future of war belonged not to mass armies and tanks, but to decentralised networks and precision strikes[x]—has not merely proven over-optimistic—it has been inverted. Russia and other actors have appropriated these same tools, stripped them of their idealistic framing and employed them pragmatically, economically and at scale.

The West, by contrast, became increasingly enamoured with its own digital mythology: a vision of warfare conducted through code and connectivity, where liberal values could hitch a ride on the algorithm.[xi] Nowhere was this more evident than in the enthusiasm for ‘cyberwarfare’.[xii] This domain has long been hyped by Western policymakers as having the capacity to transform the nature of conflict, although its actual strategic effects have often fallen short.[xiii]

Advanced AI-driven weapons systems possess the potential to alter the character of warfare significantly, and Western analysts are right to acknowledge their utility and promise.[xiv] The difficulty arises, however, when such technologies are viewed as substitutes for—rather than complements to—the iron constants of war: the concentration of force and the inescapable physical costs of sustained combat.

Empirical reality continues to bear out these fundamental precepts. The digitalisation of war has not led to its dematerialisation but rather to its real-time mediation—wars that are livestreamed, memed and marketed for popular consumption. In a hyper-connected world, conflict is increasingly staged for global spectatorship.[xv] But if the medium has changed, the consequences have not.[xvi] War remains bloody, destructive and—for all the intrusion of high-tech drones and AI onto the battlefield—still deeply human.[xvii] Technology may change how we kill, but not why we kill or what killing does to us.[xviii]


From Liquid Dreams to Reinforced Concrete
We would do well to recall the intellectual mirage that framed Western military and strategic thought in the heady years following the Cold War—an era when it was believed history had ended and borders were assumed to be melting away. It was a time when Francis Fukuyama serenely declared the triumph of liberal democracy,[xix] Zygmunt Bauman introduced us to ‘liquid modernity’,[xx] Michael Mandelbaum speculated about the decline of great power conflict,[xxi] and Kenichi Ōmae prophesied the coming of a ‘borderless world’, flattened by global markets and lubricated by digital flows.[xxii]

These visions have not aged well. Rather than dissolving boundaries, the digital age has made fortification fashionable again. Far from ushering in a seamless, post-territorial utopia, we are witnessing a global resurgence of walls—physical, digital and strategic.[xxiii] Border fences, as well as internal security barricades, are proliferating, missile shields are expanding, and hardened command bunkers are once again very much in vogue.[xxiv]

And on the battlefield—from Gaza to Donbas—it is not hashtags, data packets or narrative ‘wins’ that are seizing ground.[xxv] It is bulldozers, concrete, and men entrenched behind sandbags and shellfire, knee-deep in the rust and mud of analogue war.[xxvi]

The future of warfare, it was claimed, would be light, fluid and frictionless.[xxvii] Precision would replace mass. Conflicts would be fought with pristine execution, cleanly resolved before the next election cycle. Yet what has emerged is not a paradigm shift, but a historical flashback: steel, trenches, and the long, grinding arithmetic of attrition.[xxviii]

To be sure, drones now circle the skies, bringing with them a new visual vocabulary of war and an expanded toolkit for surveillance and targeting.[xxix] But their strategic effect has been to amplify, rather than transform, traditional modes of warfare. Instead of revolutionising the battlefield, they have industrialised it anew—albeit in 4K resolution, complete with cinematic framing.

War, it turns out, has not dematerialised. It has reindustrialised—with better bandwidth and far more stylish infographics.

Ukraine: A Case Study in Strategic Overreach and Wishful Thinking
The war in Ukraine was meant to be a demonstration of Western strategic mastery—a proving ground where NATO’s technological sophistication, economic might and moral authority would combine to check Russian aggression without direct military engagement.[xxx] Ukraine, initially reliant on Soviet-era weaponry, was gradually armed with Western materiel—supplied unevenly and often with logistical friction—amid a broader surge of financial, diplomatic and intelligence support.[xxxi]

While Western leaders portrayed their aims as conflict containment and support for Ukrainian sovereignty,[xxxii] the cumulative effect—and at times the barely concealed subtext—was something more expansive: to discredit the Kremlin, weaken the Russian state, and reaffirm the West’s fading post-Cold War faith in its own historical direction.[xxxiii] If humiliation was not the formal objective, it was very often the desired outcome.

To take official Western restraint at face value is to ignore the deeper ideological and strategic context—particularly the long-standing tradition of rhetorical triumphalism and regime-change fantasising that has permeated Western policy circles. As the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) observed with striking candour: ‘The West does not have a strategy of regime change in Russia. However, if Ukraine can end the conflict on its own terms, Putin’s regime could fall. A failed war… makes regime collapse a possible outcome’.[xxxiv] That such an outcome is publicly entertained—even welcomed—suggests a broader ambition than mere containment.

Indeed, the public script may have emphasised stability and sovereignty, but the undertone—as echoed across media commentary, think tank literature and government rhetoric—has often leaned toward punitive ambition, systemic delegitimisation, and, at times, the outright dismemberment of the Russian state.[xxxv] The Atlantic Council was even more explicit in its framing, advocating that the West should ‘undermine Russian domestic support for the war, destroy the myth of Russian military superiority, and shrink the Kremlin’s sphere of influence’.[xxxvi]

In this light, Washington and its allies appeared less interested in returning to a stable international order than in using the war as a proving ground for a reassertion of liberal ascendancy. As one Brookings report argued: ‘“Shock and awe” should be the leitmotif of limiting Russia’s economic capacity to wage war’.[xxxvii] Even if not officially articulated as such, this rationale carried a distinctly retaliatory logic, one that went beyond tactical considerations and veered into the terrain of ideological retribution.

Instead, the West’s proxy war in Ukraine has begun to resemble a failed product launch—overpromised, underdelivered and still limping along on the exhaust fumes of its own marketing. While initial Western expectations were marked by caution—especially in parts of Europe that assumed a swift Russian victory—these quickly gave way to escalating rhetoric once Ukraine held the line. Within weeks, the narrative lurched from defensive solidarity to something far more grandiose: pledges of support ‘for as long as it takes’,[xxxviii] sweeping declarations about a global struggle for democracy,[xxxix] and the recasting of Ukraine as ‘part of our European family’.[xl]

The war’s strategic aims metastasised beyond political rationality, becoming integral to the West’s own political and moral identity. Now, with victory elusive and momentum stalled, the war has become too costly to abandon and too awkward to concede as a failure. It is too deeply entangled in the maximalist rhetoric and moral self-conceptions of both Russia and the West to be resolved cleanly. The result is that no obvious off-ramp exists for either side.[xli]

The subsequent misjudgements are worth cataloguing:

Soft Power: A concept long valorised in Western policy circles, denoting the use of non-military tools to leverage instruments of cultural persuasion and win hearts and minds without recourse to force.[xlii] But hearts, as it turns out, are not for sale and minds are too busy doomscrolling through drone footage on TikTok or tuning out altogether.[xliii] Influence operations premised on Pride flag-waving embassies and finger-wagging hashtags have failed to move either publics or front lines.[xliv]
Economic Warfare: The much-vaunted ‘sanctions from hell’,[xlv] were meant to crater the Russian economy in short order.[xlvi] Instead, Russia’s GDP has overtaken much of the Eurozone, the industrial capacity of which continues to falter.[xlvii] Germany, by contrast, has sent its manufacturing sector into a kind of auto-induced coma—collateral damage in a moral enterprise that neglected to run the numbers before pulling the trigger.[xlviii]
Strategic Credibility: Once burnished by Cold War mystique, NATO’s reputation now wobbles somewhere between ceremonial leftover and crisis PR firm. The alliance increasingly resembles a séance for departed strategic purpose—hands clasped around the table, muttering slogans, hoping the ghost of 1989 will manifest and tell them what to do.[xlix] It oscillates between virtue-signalling and threat inflation, unsure whether it’s meant to deter adversaries or simply reassure itself that it still matters.
The underlying reality is chastening, though hardly obscure: strategically, Ukraine has already lost in the sense that it is now increasingly difficult to visualise the full recovery of its pre-2022 territory—let alone Crimea, lost to Russia in 2014. While some insist that Ukraine can still prevail by simply avoiding defeat,[l] this is less a strategy than a holding pattern. In fact, the notion that Ukraine might still win so long as it does not lose drifts perilously close to tautology and evades the strategic question by substituting persistence for victory.

Underlying this is a broader tendency in Western discourse to redefine success as indefinite resolve—‘for as long as it takes’—a phrase that entered the Western strategic lexicon as early as 2010.[li] Indeed, the situation evokes the strategically inexplicable escalation of the First World War. In that case, the conflict reached a global-order-transforming crescendo because, having committed themselves so fiercely to victory (howsoever defined), no political leader could be dislodged from the imperative to demonstrate their own side’s superior strength and will. Worse still, none could escape the gnawing fear of defeat—and the reckoning that defeat might entail, the consequences of which became increasingly difficult even to contemplate. Yet perhaps most fatally of all was the inexorable political need, once the fighting had begun, to persuade populations that their sacrifices had not been in vain.[lii]

The rhetoric of open-ended commitment has a dependable shelf life: it sounds resolute, postpones difficult questions and conveniently allows almost anything to pass for progress—until it doesn’t. Strategically, however, it is ambiguous, and—as the record of Western overreach in places like Afghanistan suggests—ultimately unsustainable. The war has frequently been defended as a triumph of strategic effectiveness. As long as Ukrainians are doing the fighting, the West ostensibly gains from Russian military degradation at no direct cost to itself. As American Senator Lindsey Graham bluntly put it: ‘I like the structural path we’re on here. As long as we help Ukraine with the weapons they need, and the economic support, they will fight to the last person’.[liii]

Such a position is morally cynical but might still be justifiable as a matter of dispassionate realpolitik—if, that is, the underlying military and economic logic were sound. The problem is, it is not. As recently conceded by top NATO general Christopher Cavolli, ‘Despite extensive battlefield losses in Ukraine, the Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated. In fact, the Russian army, which has borne the brunt of combat, is today larger than it was at the beginning of the war’.[liv] It should also be noted that Western assessments of Russian losses are highly questionable with the Pentagon itself admitting that Russian casualty estimates are ‘low confidence assessments’, derived from varied sources—satellite imagery, intercepts, social media posts—and that the lack of transparency renders them ‘at best, an unreliable snapshot of the war’.[lv]

Similarly, the European Union as a whole has also lost, though more gradually and at greater expense, both economically and in terms of political credibility.[lvi] And for those willing to observe without ideological filters, the ending was never really in doubt—it was embedded in the opening act.[lvii] Compared to recent Western ventures—Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria—Ukraine is less an exception than the latest instalment in a franchise of failure.

Curiously, viewed alongside these other glittering triumphs of Western statecraft, it raises the uncomfortable question: why do strategic miscalculations persist with such bureaucratic regularity? Strategic failure returns like a seasonal affliction, predictable yet untreated? It’s as if the logic of policy has become autonomous—advancing not through reasoned deliberation, but through the mechanical repetition of error, as though guided by some invisible staff college syllabus written in disappearing ink.[lviii] In Clausewitzian terms, the West has mastered the grammar of war but lost sight of its logic[lix]—substituting movement for meaning, precision for purpose and publicity for political ends.

Geopolitics After Virtue: The Great Dealignment
One of the more obvious strategic own-goals of recent years—easily foreseeable to anyone not still intoxicated by end-of-history euphoria—was the West’s attempt to isolate Russia.[lx] Marketed as a principled defence of the rules-based order, it instead accelerated the very multipolar world that liberal orthodoxy once dismissed as a polite fiction.[lxi]

China and Russia are now aligned more closely than ever before.[lxii] BRICS, long regarded as a branding exercise in search of a geopolitical function, is suddenly attracting real attention. Turkey and Indonesia, neither known for anti-Western grandstanding, are among those now eyeing membership as a hedge against Western volatility.[lxiii] De-dollarisation—once the province of fringe theorists—is quietly creeping into institutional portfolios.[lxiv]

The attempt to reduce the ruble to rubble has fared no better. It remains robust and more stable, in fact, than several G7 currencies.[lxv] Meanwhile, the broader economic offensive against Russia has boomeranged, damaging key sectors of Western industry far more effectively than any vodka-soaked strategy session in the Kremlin could have dared dream.[lxvi] German manufacturing sends its regrets—from behind a shuttered factory.[lxvii]

The geopolitical by-product is an incipient Eurasian compact,[lxviii] coalescing not from ideological affinity but from a shared scepticism towards the West—especially in its EU–NATO incarnation—where it increasingly appears distracted, decadent and no longer capable of shaping a global framework to which others feel bound to conform.[lxix] This is not yet the collapse of the post-1945 system, but it is a world in which many states no longer see themselves forced to choose between Western patronage and pariah status.[lxx]

One thing is increasingly clear: the world order that Washington and Brussels claim to defend—one rooted in liberal internationalism and post‑Cold War norms—no longer resembles the fractured, multipolar reality most of the world inhabits. Pronouncements from Western leaders in the recent past such as Joe Biden (U.S. President, 2021-25) and Secretary of NATO Jens Stoltenberg have repeatedly invoked this liberal order as a universal bulwark,[lxxi] even as its relevance beyond the West remains doubtful.

Mass Effect: The Return of Industrial Warfare
For decades, Western military doctrine elevated speed, agility and precision as the defining virtues of modern war. Mass, by contrast, was relegated to the historical dustbin—an outdated vestige of the past best archived alongside the flintlock and bayonet. Prevailing wisdom held that battlefield success no longer depended on sheer volume; instead, superiority in information and command velocity was expected to render attritional warfare obsolete.[lxxii] Mobilising at scale was seen not merely as inefficient, but as a strategic anachronism: too slow, too expensive and altogether too evocative of the dismal age when wars dragged on longer than a news cycle.

Then came Ukraine. And Gaza. And most recently, the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran. Along with them comes the unwelcome re-statement of the ugly truth. We can debate what mass means in the digital age—whether cyber capabilities or information flows can be ‘massed’ like tanks, shells and infantry.[lxxiii] But the war in Ukraine has delivered a sobering verdict: mass still matters in its elemental productive and kinetic sense.[lxxiv] Industrial capacity—measured not in slick procurement briefings but in shells, drones and spare parts—continues to decide wars.[lxxv]

The numbers from Ukraine are instructive:

Russia is producing artillery shells at roughly a 3:1 ratio compared to the combined efforts of the West.[lxxvi]
It is manufacturing more armoured vehicles, drones and missiles than all of NATO put together.[lxxvii]
It has achieved this without either defaulting on its debt[lxxviii] or torching its domestic economy[lxxix]—relying instead on retrofitted Soviet-era factories and a wartime mobilisation machine that, however grim, has proven effective.[lxxx]
The Western response has been less than inspiring. It struggles to maintain its own inventories, let alone support those of its Ukrainian client.[lxxxi] The U.S. production rate of SM-3 interceptor missiles, for example, is twelve per year.[lxxxii] That is not a misprint. It’s barely enough to guard one aircraft carrier, let alone a country, a continent or an alliance system.

What we are witnessing is not simply a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a clash between two rival theories of warfare: the West’s preferred paradigm of digital-era finesse and the industrial-age attrition model it prematurely consigned to history.[lxxxiii] One looks increasingly like a TED Talk. The other looks like it’s winning.[lxxxiv]

Elegant Theories, Muddy Realities: The Limits of Manoeuvre and Modern War’s Return to the Past
For decades, Western military doctrine has lionised manoeuvre warfare—fast-paced operations designed to outflank the enemy, strike at its weak points and collapse morale before a proper defence can even form.[lxxxv] It is, in essence, a vision of war as choreography: elegant, kinetic and preferably concluded before anyone’s risotto gets cold. Attritional warfare, by contrast, has been cast as a relic—graceless, maladroit and too evocative of First World War trench warfare to be taken seriously in an age of sensor fusion and satellite-guided munitions.[lxxxvi]

The battlefield, however, refuses to conform to this prescription. Ukraine’s much-heralded counter-offensives, for example, have foundered in mile-deep minefields and trench systems that would not look out of place in 1916.[lxxxvii] Russia’s allegedly obsolete static defences—written off in many Western assessments as ‘outdated and ineffective’[lxxxviii]—have proved not only durable but lethally successful. Gaza, too, has offered little comfort to the manoeuvrist imagination: less blitzkrieg, more bloodied crawl through concrete and chaos.[lxxxix]

The much-touted revolution in precision warfare—complete with ‘smart’ bombs, ISR drones[xc] and real-time targeting—has not so much upended old doctrines as underscored their abiding relevance. Precision, it turns out, does not render mass obsolete. It merely ensures that what is hit is hit accurately. However, this does not, in and of itself, dislodge the enemy when they are still dug in, still shooting back and still there after the smoke clears.[xci]

What we are witnessing is not the advent of a new kind of war, but the stubborn reappearance of what was once thought banished to history: less Silicon Valley, more Verdun with drones. And despite what the glossy tech brochures may once promised, war remains a test of strength and perseverance. And, ultimately, this still rewards the side that can absorb punishment, not merely dish it out with algorithmic elegance.

Tempo Tantrums: Velocity without Victory
Speed, we were told, kills. Victory, we were assured, belongs to the swift.[xcii] Modern warfare, in this telling, must be conducted at pace—executed rapidly, concluded even more briskly, preferably before voters grow bored or the polls turn south. But once again, theory has collided with reality—and reality, as ever, refuses to follow campaign plans or calendar deadlines.

From Iraq to Afghanistan to Ukraine, the West’s obsession with fast wars has yielded an unfortunate litany of open-ended debacles—not because speed is inherently flawed, but because it was mistaken for strategy.[xciii] In practice, rapid operations have too often been used in place of coherent planning, leaving policymakers unprepared for what follows the initial burst of momentum.

What we are left with is movement masquerading as progress. Digital velocity—complete with dashboards, drone feeds and situational awareness apps—has proven a poor substitute for more antiquated virtues: strategic patience, industrial stamina and political determination. The West has mastered the art of beginning wars at speed. It remains rather less adept at ending them.

Narrative Supremacy, Battlefield Reality
Few phrases have enjoyed such recent cachet as ‘information war’[xciv]—the idea that success in conflict depends not merely on battlefield outcomes, but on dominating the information space: protecting one’s own data flows, disrupting those of the adversary and controlling the narrative terrain.[xcv] From think tank panels to defence white papers, phrases like strategic communications, influence operations and narrative shaping have been lauded as the new instruments of advantage[xcvi]— as if they might obviate the need for tanks, shells, or the ability to absorb and inflict sustained losses. Victory, nowadays, it has been said, ‘is not about whose army wins, but about whose story wins’.[xcvii]

Ukraine, by almost every Western measure, has won the ‘information war’ hands-down: cinematic footage, clever memes and Zelensky’s branded defiance—all flawlessly packaged for global consumption.[xcviii] Ukraine’s audacious strike against Russia’s strategic bomber fleet in early June 2025, launched from modified civilian truck containers deep within Russian territory, was merely the latest flourish in the country’s drone diplomacy.[xcix]

The operation thrilled opinion writers in the West, with commentators hailing it as bold, brilliant and disruptive. One writer declared that it was ‘An extraordinary covert operation’ which has ‘left many Russian strategic bombers in flames and analysts reaching for superlatives’,[c] while another proclaimed that the strike had ‘revolutionary implications for the future of warfare’.[ci]

Ignored in all this was the fact that the Russian bombers were stationed in the open as part of the terms of the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT), which aims to safeguard the transparency and verifiability of nuclear forces between the U.S. and Russia.[cii] That this was viewed as a media triumph speaks volumes when it contains the potential to unravel nuclear-era taboos, destabilise longstanding arms control agreements and invite retaliation on NATO territory.[ciii] There is an almost touching faith that Russia—and future adversaries—will play by rules no longer respected by those celebrating their breach.

Yet, the crucial point is that none of it shifts the balance on the battlefield. Russia continues to occupy territory, outguns Ukraine in military output by a wide margin, and thus dictates the tempo of the war. The paradox is unmistakable: while Kyiv excelled in aesthetic resistance and drone-delivered dramaturgy,[civ] Moscow relied on bulldozers and blasting tactics.[cv] Just because Russia is not shock and awing its way across Ukraine does not mean that its concept of operations is flawed.

The reality is again simple. Winning the narrative is not the same as winning the war. It may matter—particularly in sustaining domestic support—but narrative dominance alone offers no shield once the shrapnel starts flying.

The West’s Strategic Malaise: Foreign Policy as Performance
Since the end of the Cold War, Western military interventions have rarely been driven by existential threat. Instead, they have functioned as expressive acts—emotional responses to atrocity, terror, or televised calamity. The guiding imperative has been less about strategic necessity than performative resolve: something must be done, and it must be seen to be done.[cvi] This is foreign policy as theatre—enough action to signal commitment to a universal principle, but not enough to see through that commitment over the longer term or to incur real risk to the metropolitan core.

The results are by now depressingly familiar. Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria:[cvii] each was launched under the banner of moral urgency and rhetorical uplift, only to conclude in exhaustion, strategic incoherence, or the quiet burying of lessons left unlearned.[cviii]

Ukraine, however, is different. The stakes are higher. The adversary is much stronger. Russia’s industrial capacity and societal resilience is far greater than any number of brittle regimes in the Middle East or North Africa.[cix] Yet the West’s instinctive response remains curiously unchanged: morally emphatic, logistically improvised and industrially unsustainable. NATO appears intent on waging a 20th-century land war on 21st-century terms, with 1990s stockpiles, and attention spans more attuned to summit communiqués and quarterly press briefings than any long-term strategic intent.

In truth, many of these interventions seem optimised less for the battlefield than for the curated stage of liberal respectability—crafted to win plaudits in opinion columns, panel discussions and policy forums where moral posturing always trumps material constraint. They are calibrated for the approval of the right-thinking, not the requirements of strategic success. Here, victory is optional, while virtue-signalling is mandatory.

Conclusion: The Past Has Logged Back In
Of course, drones, smartphones and digital sensors have altered the texture of warfare.[cx] But not, as once hoped, in ways that inherently favour the West—or that offer a clean, clickable path to victory. We were assured the information age would flatten borders, replace firepower with fibre optics and substitute narratives for armoured divisions. Instead, we got trenches, mass mobilisation and an emerging Eurasian bloc armed with both industrial capacity and civilisational will—a bloc moreover that is increasingly willing to challenge a fading Western hegemony. Not quite the holographic utopia envisioned by the PowerPoint prophets.

Western military models aren’t faltering for lack of virtue, but because they rest on assumptions that, if they were ever viable, no longer apply. The future, inconveniently, failed to arrive on schedule. And the past, just as rudely, refuses to stay buried.

What has the war shown? Eight crucial lessons in strategic realism can be discerned:

1.Industrial capacity still wins wars – tweets don’t produce artillery shells, and likes don’t keep the lines supplied.
2.Mass matters – precision only works when you have enough of it to make a difference. Without mass, even the most exquisite strike becomes a gesture.
3.Soft power is not eternal – the West’s civilisational narrative no longer persuades as it once did. A culture uncertain of its own values struggles to project them abroad.
4.Cyberwarfare adds friction, not transcendence – it clouds judgement more than it clarifies the fight and cannot substitute for steel.
5.Shock-and-awe is no panacea – it can overwhelm weak opponents, but falters against prepared defences and determined resistance.
6.Manoeuvre has its limits – it promises elegance but often delivers attrition. What begins as operational art often ends in a cratered field, a stalled advance or an improvised occupation of hostile ground.
7.Digital dominance does not equal territorial control – You can’t seize ground with hashtags—and drones don’t hold terrain. Information may shape perceptions, but only boots plant flags.
8.Political courage remains decisive – victory belongs neither to the eloquent or the agile, but to the side that can withstand the storm.

In the end, strategic success depends not on who reacts fastest or trends hardest, but on the dull, unglamorous verities that underlie modern war: production, patience and purpose.

And if Clausewitz were alive today, he’d be updating his terms of service—while watching the West lose signal in a world it once thought it had debugged.

References at link.

https://www.militarystrategymagazine.co ... n-ukraine/

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Nicaragua recognized the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson as part of Russia
August 1, 10:51

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Nicaragua officially recognized the Donetsk People's Republic, the Lugansk People's Republic, the Zaporizhia region and the Kherson region as subjects of the Russian Federation. Crimea had previously been recognized by Nicaragua as part of Russia.

Warm greetings to the Sandinista comrades.
I will note that the most friendly countries for Russia are mostly socialist countries - the DPRK, China, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9987840.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Aug 02, 2025 11:48 am

Anti-corruption, civil society and foreign partners
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 02/08/2025

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“The Ukrainian parliament unanimously restored the independence of the anti-corruption bodies NABU and SAPO [the anti-corruption agency and prosecutor's office], just over a week after Zelensky's decision to rein them in sparked protests in Kyiv and warnings from Ukraine's allies. Ukrainian democracy in action: public opinion matters,” wrote Yaroslav Trofimov, one of the Financial Times ' most prominent international correspondents , on social media yesterday, not even attempting to maintain a semblance of objectivity. His newspaper's official line is that Zelensky made an “unforced error” that he has had to rectify in the face of public and allied responses. That narrative isn't false, but it does its best to disassociate foreign warnings from the protests and the organizations behind them. Hence, his analysis falls short and fails to take into account the significance of anti-corruption institutions and their evident connection with foreign allies, who this week demonstrated their persuasiveness. In this war, which is usually presented as a struggle between democracy and autocracy , it is important to highlight Ukraine's democratic values. Authoritarianism is not measured in elections canceled or obstructed in parts of the country—long before the Russian invasion and the arrival of the state of emergency that prevents presidential elections from taking place—or in banned political parties, in opposition members killed, expelled from the country, or threatened, or in the treatment of minorities.

Democracy is measured, among other things, by the political presence and power imposed by so-called civil society , which is primarily made up of groups and individuals linked to the complex of non-governmental organizations that fight for causes that the major Western powers, including the press, consider acceptable. Thus, it is a sign of democracy that a segment of the population, especially the middle class, has demonstrated in favor of institutions used for internal struggle and prone to political revenge, but not the small demonstrations that have occurred over the last decade, for example, against the sharp rise in the prices of basic services or in defense of pensions. In democratic Ukraine, it was acceptable for the far right to demonstrate against the implementation of the peace agreements that Kiev had signed and had no intention of implementing, but any show of solidarity with the people of Donbass was seen as a sign of dissent with serious consequences in the form of attacks by the far right or criminal charges.

The law requiring non-governmental organizations to declare their foreign funding, which the Georgian government passed last year and sparked massive protests from the same sector of civil society that demonstrated last week in Ukraine, is a clear representation of the role that NGOs, think tanks , and foundations of all kinds have played and continue to play in the post-Soviet world over the past three decades. Almut Rochowanski, a feminist activist with years of experience in the sector who explained having helped organizations in countries like Georgia and Ukraine obtain foreign grants, explained at the time of the Georgian Maidan threat how such organizations can influence the country's legislation and have the tools to lobby for policies that generally favor only capital, especially foreign capital. In Ukraine, it's not just non-governmental organizations, but the technocracy created since the victory on Maidan, where all these external pressures have created a fully subsidized ecosystem of activism that, coincidentally, always fights for the political positions preferred by the European Union and, as long as it existed, USAID.

The paradigmatic example is Oleksandra Matviichuk, Nobel Peace Prize winner and star guest at all kinds of international events, who does not hesitate to give conferences alongside well-known figures from the extreme right and who boasts of having begun demanding weapons for Ukraine in the summer of 2014. It was the hot phase of the war in Donbass, when Ukraine decided to invent an anti-terrorist operation in Donbass to justify the use of the army on national territory, the process of including groups like Azov as a police battalion in the troops of the Ministry of the Interior began, the first steps were taken to use heavy weapons against a militia that did not yet have the form of an army, parks were attacked in broad daylight on Sunday and the de facto non-payment of pensions and social benefits occurred, which Poroshenko would make official months later. Matviichuk is part of a network of organizations funded from abroad to continue advancing the construction of a Ukraine on very specific foundations: facing Russia, as a reserve of resources and labor for the European Union, and as an external border of the European family .

Matviichuk is now a globally respected figure, and his opinion is a good example of what Ukrainian sociologist Volodymyr Ischenko, arguably much less accepted in the country he had to leave, calls " Ukrainian voices ," a term that assumes uniformity and emphasizes unity above all else. As with NGOs, there are acceptable voices and others that are not, which is why they are silenced and vilified as Russian propaganda. This is a way of showing that civil society is not only active, but also participatory, and, coincidentally, always mobilizes in favor of initiatives defended, promoted, and funded by the West.

Western enthusiasm for civil society participation in the mobilizations is, therefore, directly proportional to the interest invested in the various causes. With each and every left-wing organization politically and ideologically disarmed, political parties banned, and their causes—the defense of public services—deprived of funding, the only activism possible in Ukraine over these eleven years has been that facilitated by resources that have made the protagonists of these causes celebrities. Among them, the anti-corruption cause, which has been used to justify absolutely everything in Ukraine, from cuts to the privatization of everything that the various governments since Maidan have managed to sell. In this sense, it is not surprising that the anti-corruption issue, and the government's play with the institutions theoretically created to reduce it, have sparked protests in which well-known faces have participated. Based on a decade of work to present this small segment of civil society as representing an entire people, the media have been able to portray last week's protests as a demonstration of democracy. This narrative is also useful in justifying Zelensky's quick change of course, realizing that he couldn't stand up to those sponsoring the society that has demonstrated in recent days.

“Following the West's declaration, Zelensky urged the parliament, which is under his control, to pass his law. This reverses his law, which had been passed and signed and which placed the US-organized anti-corruption agencies, which had begun investigating his cronies, under his control. This demonstrates the lack of independence of Zelensky, the parliament, and the anti-corruption agencies in Ukraine. But no one cares. Instead, this is called independence and democracy,” wrote Ukrainian-Canadian academic Ivan Katchanovski, framing the protests and the Ukrainian president's swift reversal as a clear consequence of Ukraine's dependence on Western allies. The displays of euphoria and gratitude that have followed from abroad, which contrast with the attempt by the political faction linked to Poroshenko to maintain the political confrontation, already completely defused on the streets since the anti-corruption organizations and their supporters managed to return to the status quo , are representative of this.

“Congratulations to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Rada for adopting the new anti-corruption law today. The law guarantees the independence of NABU and SAPO and empowers these agencies to operate effectively. This is a truly important and right step. It is a victory in the fight against corruption,” wrote Gitanas Nauseda, President of Lithuania. Her message is just one example of the satisfaction of the European political establishment , which has seen her power of persuasion. Brussels has failed to get China to comply with its orders not to flood the European market with products with which its deindustrialized economy cannot compete, nor to abandon Russia so that Western sanctions can have the desired effect, nor has it been able to achieve a decent and viable trade agreement with the United States. But it has understood that, at least in Ukraine, its words are orders.

Nauseda's comment is just one of many published over the past two days, in which Zelensky has resumed his practice of retweeting every supportive comment he receives from European officials with a thank you. Significantly, he repeats the practice he used after the debacle of his Oval Office meeting, during which he was accused of not saying thank you. One of the comments the Ukrainian president appreciated yesterday was Ursula von der Leyen's message, writing that "President Zelensky's signature on the law restoring the independence of NABU and SAPO is a welcome step. Rule of law and anti-corruption reforms in Ukraine must continue. They remain essential for the country's progress on the European path. The EU will continue to support these efforts." Antonio Costa echoed this sentiment, adding that "Rule of law and anti-corruption reforms in Ukraine must continue. They remain essential for the country's progress on the European path. The EU will continue to support these efforts." It's clear that the congratulatory messages implicitly contain an order to stay the course and a certification that certain EU efforts —what has often been described as external control exercised by those who support and finance the institutions they themselves have created—will not only continue but will be consolidated. Democracy means that the European Union provides the resources, can give the orders, and that the President and Parliament of Ukraine only need a phone call to pass a law radically different from the one passed just a few days earlier.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/02/antic ... tranjeros/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Putin's statements regarding Oreshnik and the situation in the SVO zone:

The first serial Oreshnik has been produced in Russia.
- The Oreshnik has been delivered to the troops;

- Information about the liberation of Chasov Yar is completely true, the Russian Armed Forces liberated it several days ago;

- Russian troops are advancing along the entire line of combat contact;

- There is not a single needless loss among Russian soldiers;

- The situation in the special operation on July 31 was discussed by Putin with the head of the Ministry of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff;

- The leadership of Ukraine is not very informed about the events at the front, since it denies the capture of Chasov Yar by the Russian Armed Forces;

- Putin expects that the issue of delivering Oreshnik to Belarus will be closed by the end of the year, a location for its deployment is currently being selected;

- Positive activity in the SVO is achieved thanks to the courage and heroism of Russian soldiers.

Google Translator

******

SITREP 8/1/25: Chasov Yar Falls, Pokrovsk Crumbles, Zelensky Sinks
Simplicius
Aug 01, 2025

In a spate of panic Zelensky somehow managed to get the Rada to return and quickly amend the anti-corruption law, which he immediately signed into force. But it did not go without theatrics, as fights broke out and infamous Rada pest Goncharenko lashed out at Zelensky directly: (Video at link.)

Zelensky’s seeming backtracking, however, did not end the latest MSM blitz against his ‘image’. Even protests continued, as people took to the streets outside the Rada building while the vote was in progress.

At the same time, the Western narrative machine has ramped up in pushing Zelensky’s would-be successor to the fore, as Vogue released an eyeroll-inducing feature on Zaluzhny undoubtedly meant to begin massaging his image, revealing his soft ‘human side’ in run up to the eventual narratives that will convince us why he’ll make such a great new “people’s leader”:https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... s-pokrovsk

At this point, one is almost apt to root for Zelensky, given that he’s gone off-script and may soon become a veritable underdog against his former masters.

In the meantime, Trump has grown “tired” not only of waiting for Russia to settle the conflict, but apparently of talking to Russia at all. He’s now fast-forwarded his ‘tariffs’ deadline to what is now less than ten days, which Russia is even mocking by running tariff count-down tickers on their news feeds. But even Trump admitted the tariffs “may not work” and seemed generally half-hearted and lackadaisical about the whole thing—or perhaps, more aptly, defeated:

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It continues to have the feel of ‘going through the motions’ merely to appease hardliners who hold all the political and donor power in Washington.
(Video at link.)

At the very least we now know precisely what Trump will do, and precisely what effect it will have—which is zero. This gives us a better handle at analyzing and predicting the remaining course of the Ukrainian conflict, at least for the medium term future, now that any potential ‘big surprises’ are virtually written off.


Turning to the conflict, several outlets like CNN have begun finally admitting to Russian successes in the summer campaign, no longer mindlessly toting out platitudes about “insignificantly small” advances. In the latest piece, CNN concedes these ‘bite-sized’ advances are quickly adding up:

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https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/europe/r ... latam-intl

Across eastern Ukraine, Russia’s tiny gains are adding up. It is capitalizing on a series of small advances and throwing significant resources into an emerging summer offensive, one that risks reshaping control over the front lines.

Over four days reporting in the villages behind Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk – two of the most embattled Ukrainian towns in Donetsk region – CNN witnessed the swift change in control of territory. Russian drones were able to penetrate deep into areas Kyiv’s forces once relied upon as oases of calm, and troops struggled to find the personnel and resources to halt a persistent enemy advance.


A Ukrainian officer goes on to tell CNN that Russians have already moved into the outskirts of both Rodinske and Bilytske, threatening to cut off the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration:

One Ukrainian commander serving near the town described “a very bad scenario,” in which troops in the adjoining town to Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, risked “being surrounded.” The officer added Russians had already moved into the nearby village of Rodynske, and were on the edges of Biletske, endangering the supply line for Ukrainian troops inside Pokrovsk – assessments confirmed by a Ukrainian police officer and another Ukrainian soldier to CNN Tuesday.

The commander, who like many officials spoke on condition of anonymity discussing a sensitive topic, said they feared a siege was likely, similar to Avdiivka and Vuhledar last year, where “we held out to the last and lost both cities and people as a result.”


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In Konstantinovka, CNN found even worse problems, with one commander telling CNN:

Vasyl, a commander with the 93rd Mechanized brigade, said he had not been sent new personnel for eight months, and was forced to resupply frontline positions of only two men with drones, airlifting in food, water and ammunition.

“No one wants to fight”, he said. “The old personnel are left, they are tired and want to be replaced, but no one is replacing them.” He blamed Ukrainian officers for giving inaccurate reports of the front line to their superiors. “A lot of things are not communicated and are hidden,” he said. “We don’t communicate a lot of things to our state. Our state doesn’t communicate a lot of things to the people.”


CNN admits that Russian forces are now threatening Kupyansk as well, and the simultaneous fall of these major cities on top of Zelensky’s political crisis is a perfect storm in the making:

The accumulative effect of a Ukrainian manpower crisis, the turbulence of Kyiv’s relationship with the Trump White House, and uncertain supplies of weaponry, are a perfect storm that has broken in the face of the vigor and persistence of a Russian summer offensive, whose progress is no longer incremental but is reshaping the conflict and bringing Putin closer to some of his goals fast.

The Telegraph’s tone was no less urgent in their latest update:

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https://archive.ph/f1zqm

The article likewise details Pokrovsk’s coming fall, even going so far as to absurdly claim Russians are now copying successful Wehrmacht tactics—one supposes this is high compliment from them:

According to Ukrainian soldiers in the area, the Russians are employing tactics reminiscent of the Germans in the Second World War, identifying weak points in logistics, then moving in to sever them. Cutting off supply lines has been a priority for Putin’s commanders since last year.

Their supplied map better illustrates how Russian forces are close to cutting the last vital supply route there:

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Families with children were ordered to evacuate (Dobropillia) on July 24 amid fierce fighting

Russian troops ambushed a Ukrainian unit in Rodyns'ke on July 27

Russians effectively severed road - a vital logical artery for supplying Pokvrosk

Key route to reach Kostiantynivka as other routes controlled by Russia

Battles taking place near industrial city

Fierce fighting erupted near Pokrovsk, a key defensive line


The authors write that after Pokrovsk, the road to Pavlograd is open:

The fall of Pokrovsk is widely anticipated. If it does, only open farmland will separate the front line from Pavlohrad, terrain that is notoriously difficult for Ukrainian forces to defend.

They conclude that Pokrovsk may fall from within days to weeks at most:

Today, that line is beginning to fray. Some believe a full-scale collapse is imminent. Although Russia has not yet launched a sustained assault on the city itself, each passing day brings Pokrovsk closer to encirclement.

Some soldiers predict it could fall within days, others say weeks. Few now speak in terms of uncertainty, only of timing.

Soldiers attribute the rapid acceleration to elite Russian drone units that were previously deployed in Kursk and have now been redirected to Pokrovsk. They believe Putin has fixed his sights on the city and will use the full force of his military to seize it.


Top Ukrainian officer channels likewise comment on the situation in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd. One report points to Russian forces slowly penetrating Mirnograd to try and cut it off from Pokrovsk, likely similar to how Severodonetsk and Lisichansk were taken:

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Meanwhile, Pokrovsk itself is in the early stages of being stormed—a message from two days ago had already pointed to major Ukrainian losses just from Russian DRGs (diversionary recon and sabotage groups):

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Note in particular how the internal memos always contradict the topsoil level slop for the masses about “endless Russian losses”—here they admit Russian groups are not taking particularly heavy casualties.

Rada MP Bezuglaya posted a comparison of how similar Pokrovsk is looking to the final phase of Avdeevka:

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Meanwhile, there are increasing claims Russian forces have already established footholds all over the city, with some geolocated drone footage attesting to this—but it appears more likely many parts of the city are merely ‘gray zones’ for now:

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Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction – short summary: Russian “Center” group is advancing into the Krasnoarmeysk-Dimitrov (Pokrovsk-Mirnograd) agglomeration. Storm units are confirmed in northern Pokrovsk near Chaikovsky Street and are fighting near Schmidt (Mazepa) Street by the railway station. Kiev forces were caught off guard, causing panic. Russian troops may split the city into east and west, creating a threat of encircling Mirnograd (Dimitrov). Supply routes are under Russian fire control — about half of Kiev’s transport doesn’t reach the city anymore. Kiev forces are deploying reserves but appear to lack enough infantry. The loss of Nikanorovka and Suvorovo, and Russian breakthroughs between Belitskoye and Rodinskoye, worsen their position. The situation is highly dynamic and critical for Kiev forces.

However, top Ukrainian analyst Myroshnikov refutes the above, claiming Pokrovsk will hold out until winter and beyond:

The enemy has not entered Pokrovsk with main forces.

DRGs (sabotage and reconnaissance groups) constantly try to break into the city, but usually these attempts are unsuccessful and are a one-way ticket.

And with main forces - no, what are we talking about?

Of course, the situation is very difficult and sooner or later the enemy will enter the southern quarters of Pokrovsk.

But this whole operation will take a long time.

The occupiers will conduct it both in autumn and in winter.

Pokrovsk is one of the key points in this war, and no one will give it up. It will be hell for the enemy there.


The problem is, there are also unverified reports Russians have already struck out towards the railway tracks north of Rodinske, capturing a small portion of them, which would mean Pokrovsk’s main artery would be completely cut:

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If that’s truly the case, then it’s hard to imagine Pokrovsk holding out “until winter”, or even close to it. But it all depends how many reserves Zelensky starts pumping into it. There could be another replay of Avdeevka where the 47th Brigade was brought in towards the end, armed with Leopards and Bradleys, and began giving Russian forces advancing on Stepove and Berdychi major problems. (Video at link.)

Unfortunately for Ukraine, this wasn’t the only area to suffer setbacks the past few days.

In Zaporozhye, Russian forces likewise struck out with another series of successful advances. After earlier capturing Kamyanske, they’ve now entered Plavni and have even begun capturing Stepnogorsk further north:

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A Ukrainian officer channel confirms:

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They report that the reason for Zaporozhye’s weakening defense was that Zelensky took its best brigades to Sumy in order to plug Russian advances there:

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Sure, he succeeded for the time being, as Sumy advances have slowed and Ukraine was even able to retake Kondritovka, but it shows the kind of shell game Ukraine is forced to play, moving their few good units around the map to plug gaps while other areas begin to fall.

Further east on the Velyka Novosilka line at the juncture of Zaporozhye, Dnipro, and Donetsk regions, Russian forces struck out and captured Temirovka—more specifically the 394th Motor Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motor Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army:


Temirovka,Zaporizhzhya region

Russian Forces push West of Zelene Pole and raise the 🇷🇺flag in Temirovka(1:45).

Quote

💥 As a result of decisive and skillful offensive actions by the stormtroopers of the 394th motorized rifle regiment of the 127th division of the 5th army of the "Vostok" troop grouping, another settlement - Temirovka in the Zaporizhzhia region has been liberated.

💥 Temirovka is a well-fortified defense point of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, covered from the southwest by a water barrier. In total, during the battles, more than 5 square kilometers of territory and over 320 buildings turned into defensive positions by the enemy were liberated. (Video at link.)


Additional footage:

Footage of the clearing of positions by the 394th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the approaches to the previously captured Temirovka is published by the Telegram channel “Warrior DV”. (Video at link.)

Just north of there Russia expanded control around recently captured Zeleni Hai, beginning the push north toward neighboring Ivanovka:

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Over by Konstantinovka, the Russian MOD announced the full capture of long-embattled Chasov Yar. Russians posted geolocated footage raising the flag on the western outskirts of the town, despite Ukrainian claims the town had not fallen.

More interesting is this video from the 98th Airborne operating in Chasov Yar detailing one of the key tactics that has allowed Russian forces to begin dominating: (Video at link.)

In essence, they have begun heavily prioritizing specialist anti-drone units whose job is to “clear the skies” of enemy drones.

This has been a big trend recently on many other Russian fronts. Another recent report predicted that Ukrainian ‘Baba Yaga’ drones will cease to exist soon because of the ease with which Russia has now begun to track and take them out. Such heavy copter drones will still play an increasingly critical role on the battlefield, but more for fire support and logistics: delivering aid, as well as supporting infantry in battle via ATGM and other longer-distance fired weapons attached to the drones. In the current FPV dominated airspace, hovering huge hex- and octo-copters over enemy positions leads to the drone’s rapid destruction.

Report from Starshe Eddy:

Soon the main task of heavy drones today, that is, bombing positions by dropping [grenades], will come to naught. Both the number of weapons used to destroy such drones and the experience of fighters capable of hitting this drone with small arms fire are growing in the army. But large modular drones actually have a great future.

Bombing from low altitudes, it's essentially «a crutch». At one time, it showed itself very well, but in any case, a direct drop of ammunition from a height of several tens of meters will go away, too many drones are lost, and the main task of such a drone will be to deliver ammunition/provisions to the front line, as well as support assault operations. The drops will be replaced by other weapons, primarily ATGMs/grenade launchers, as well as riflemen. It is in these versions that a heavy drone will be developed, which will essentially become an unmanned attack helicopter, capable of both supporting assault groups with fire and providing front-line logistics.

Our industry and army are moving in this direction and soon we will see assaults on strongholds, where fire support for the troops will be provided by a heavy quadcopter, destroying the enemy with fire from special small arms and flamethrowers/ATGMs/grenade launchers.


On the northern front, Russian forces have finally broken into Kupyansk city proper, assaulting the city from the north and capturing outer districts:

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One Ukrainian report describes the issues on this sector:

‼️🇺🇦🏴‍☠️Russians have sharply complicated logistics in Kupyansk, transport is instantly destroyed, - head of the military administration

▪️It is impossible to move around the city by car - Russian troops immediately strike with FPV drones, said Andrey Besedin. It is also impossible to bring food and supplies there.

➖"Without any communications. We cannot bring in..." - he added.

▪️Earlier, RVvoenkor repeatedly showed how during the offensive on Kupyansk "Groza" massively burns equipment with the Armed Forces militants in the city and district.

▪️Recall, recently Russian troops significantly advanced from the north, northwest and entered the outskirts of Kupyansk, and are also approaching the highway to Kharkiv.

RVvoenkor


(Video at link.)

There were many other smaller advances, but these larger ones are enough to get an overview.

There was reportedly one unsuccessful assault captured by Ukrainian drones on the Seversk front which featured a heavy armor train, as well as the motorcycle groupings we’ve come to expect. Ukraine claims to have inflicted heavy losses on the Russians, and while no advance was recorded which seems to imply the assault failed, the Ukrainian video below does not clearly show any excessively large casualties: (Video at link.)

Most likely the assault was a failure with higher than average losses, but the remainder successfully retreated. That said, some Russian channels do complain of the ‘incompetence’ of the command in this sector, which would explain the years of stagnation here without the same successes seen on other brighter fronts.

Overall, the month’s gains were the strongest all year:

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The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in July 2025 liberated over 629 km² of territory in the special military operation zone, demonstrating the best advancement rates since the beginning of 2025.

Some last items of note:

Trump says that he’s now stopped six wars during his term, and he’s averaging one new war ended per month—which, of course, qualifies him for the Nobel Peace Prize—or maybe even multiple ones!: (Video at link.)

But if you thought that wasn’t enough, Peter Navarro declares Trump should also receive the Nobel Prize for Economics for teaching the world about tariffs: (Video at link.)

Has anyone won two Nobels at the same time before? This could be a world first.



In the meantime, Arestovich has explained that Trump’s sanctions will do nothing but harden Russians and make them fight even more bitterly. According to him, the West simply does not understand how the Russian mentality works—the more you threaten their motherland, the more fanatical and unstoppable they become: (Video at link.)



An interesting new estimate of Russian vs. NATO weapons production was released by Radio Liberty, covering various different categories. It seems relatively accurate from my estimates.

Annual air defense production, probably in launchers unless otherwise stated:

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_ ... x1280.jpeg[/img]

Fighter jets:

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Main battle tanks:

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Of course, the above includes only brand new tanks, not the additional 1,200+ per year Russia supplies to the army via refurbed hulls, i.e. T-80BVMs, T-72B3Ms, T-62Ms, etc.

Artillery:

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Only questionable thing on the list are the Caesars which are based on very dubiously ‘promised’ ramp-up figures. And again, these are only newly produced systems for Russia, not counting refurbs.



A final complaint from Ukrainian channels about brigades, particularly the 34th operating on the Dnieper—which are being wiped out in senseless assaults there, just like Khrynki long ago. In particular he notes that if nothing is done, then they will be entirely wiped out and Russian forces will land on the Kherson side of the bank:

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https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... s-pokrovsk

******

The Complexities of the Battle for Chasov Yar
August 1, 8:46

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The Complexities of the Battle for Chasov Yar

The most important factor that made it impossible to take Chasov Yar by storm or in the shortest possible time was the terrain. The city and the approaches to it represent a significant difference in altitude, which was used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces units to prevent the operation from being carried out as quickly as possible. At the start of the offensive, the Russian Armed Forces units did not have an advantage, since they were in a lowland, and advancing to the Kanal microdistrict and the Seversky Donetsk-Donbass Canal itself presented significant difficulties. Being on high ground, according to all the rules of military science, is a dominant position in relation to the enemy, which our opponents took advantage of during the initial stage of the operation.

The settlements of Bogdanovka and Kalinovka, located in the same direction, had exactly the same difference in altitude - Bogdanovka in a lowland, and Kalinovka at a height, with the outskirts of Kalinovka literally above Bogdanovka, where the latter was perfectly visible. This also created difficulties for the work of the assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces. The terrain, which was convenient for the enemy, was complemented by an obstacle in the form of the Seversky Donetsk-Donbass Canal, behind which the Ukrainian Armed Forces retreated already in the second stage of the battle for the city after the Russian Armed Forces occupied the Kanal microdistrict and the Orlova tract to the north of the above-mentioned microdistrict. It was much easier for the enemy to carry out logistics and evacuation there, since they no longer had an obstacle in the form of a canal, and our units had to cross this canal to carry out assault operations, which in itself was quite an "adventure".

The second factor: large enemy fortifications in the area and a large amount of artillery. It is no secret that the defense of Chasy Yar began to be prepared during the battle for Bakhmut, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces command feared a quick breakthrough by the Wagner PMC units after the occupation of Bakhmut and the loss of strategically important heights on which the city itself is located was clearly not included in the plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, so urgent preparations for defense began for the city. In addition, some fortified areas were already present in the city earlier - let me remind you that until 2022, the Ukrainian ATO headquarters in Donbas was located there. Also, during the battle for the city, the enemy artillery was active - it happened that from 15 to 30 155mm shells were easily spent on a small target, not to mention mortar shelling - the enemy did not have a "shell famine". For example, my friend, who worked to the south of me, told me how one day the enemy spent 24 shells on his position in a short period of time. Everyone remained safe and sound, but the feeling, as they say, "was not pleasant".

The third factor: the changing nature of military operations. If the 2022-2023 campaign was an active artillery operation, tank and small arms battles, then since mid-2023 the main niche has been taken by developments in the field of UAVs, which to this day are almost the main means of fire destruction, together with artillery, which is still moving closer to the background. Those who worked in the Chasov-Yarsky direction know that moving around the area is becoming quite difficult due to the huge number of UAVs of various types - quadcopters with drops, hexacopters with heavy IEDs, FPV drones, reconnaissance "wings" - all this was in abundance in the direction.

It is impossible to count the number of downed UAVs lying around in neighborhoods and forests, since technology in this area has advanced far ahead and production costs have become lower. As a result, we literally had an "airfield" at the exit, where it is, to put it mildly, scary to raise your head, let alone a major offensive. It was the presence of a large number of UAVs in the area that made it difficult to advance, turning the classic urban battles into a "basement to basement" battle, when one assault group was in one basement, and the defending group was in the next.

https://t.me/project_nd/69 - zinc

Chasov Yar yesterday became subsidized and strategically unimportant. But on the Internet, it is still psychologically Ukrainian.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9987598.html

Good July
August 1, 14:59

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July was a good month. Almost 6,300 airplane-type kamikaze drones were launched across Ukraine.

Compare with the figures for July 2024. This is about spinning up the flywheel of the military-industrial complex. The peak has not yet been reached and even these figures are far from the limit.

August will be even more interesting in terms of increasing the number of launched Geraniums and other devices.

It is also worth noting that not only the quantity, but also the quality of the products is steadily growing. The enemy felt this last night when it received a portion of Geranium jets, after which another wave of whining began that they are difficult to shoot down. Plus, the whining about the Russian Aerospace Forces insidiously changing tactics and depleting air defense, as a result of which the air defense titans cannot protect key facilities, was pleasing.

It is also worth noting that before the start of the SVO, despite the wide range of drones, Russia was not considered one of the world leaders in drone manufacturing. During the SVO, the situation changed and in a number of areas the Russian military-industrial complex not only reached the world leaders, but also began to dictate trends, which has been recognized in the West since 2024, although before 2024 they mostly laughed at the fact that Russia lagged behind in drones.

The pace of development of land-based technologies is also not bad now and there we will also be among the world leaders in the production of NRTK.
But in maritime technologies we are still seriously lagging behind - that's where we need to catch up. We will need surface and underwater drones in large quantities.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9988418.html

On the subject of taking the Yar Clock
August 2, 9:06

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Opinion on the liberation of Chasy Yar from the direct participants in the fighting in the city.

To the conversation about the capture of Chasy Yar.

Our pirate gang also took part in this dashing regatta. Now we can talk about it, the event took place almost a year ago.

How quickly time flies! And then, in the hot summer of 2024, everything was just beginning. The brave guys from the 98th Airborne Division dropped into the "Novy" area, located (or was located? - only stumps remained of the area, thanks to military operations) to the east of the Seversky Donets Canal. The canal at that time was already pretty dry and did not cause any particular difficulties in crossing on foot, but there were problems for equipment. So at that moment there was a classic positional situation, when neither side could really do anything with the enemy.

The paratroopers' attempts to jump over the ill-fated water-shit-silt obstacle on equipment ended in nothing. We must give credit to the enemy, in the person of the 24th Brigade named after King Danilo, who created an insurmountable wall of fire thanks to their calculations of soulless air.
According to our estimates, at that time there were more than 150 (!!!) enemy FPV drone crews working against us on the ground.

However, we also drank a lot of their blood back then. At that time, in our then company, there were already very well-trained and motivated groups of drone operators who agreed to an essentially adventurous operation. Its impudence and recklessness were off the scale: a small group of us had to run on foot and on ATVs to Novy, leaving our base positions in Bakhmut. The adventure was that the route ran through Berkhovka, Bogdanovka and the "pidorles", over which enemy drones reigned supreme 24/7. The amount of burned equipment along the route was simply unthinkable and we really didn't want to join this pile.

Not without hitches, but overall the operation was a success: the group was brought in full force and began to work. Due to the fact that we were right under the enemy's nose, the result came right away: I am sure that the enemy did not expect such a brazen placement of our flyers right in their underbelly. The flight time of our FPV drones was not even minutes, but tens of seconds. Naturally, this also had a positive effect on reconnaissance: when a mavic can continuously detect enemy positions for half an hour (the priority was precisely the calculations of the Ukrainian drone operators) - there will be a result!

Literally in a few days of work, we managed to significantly reduce the number of enemy operators of flying muck in the direction. And the discovery and disruption of the plans of the enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group by our foot reconnaissance group put a fat point in this adventure.
Afterwards, we also continued to work with drones in the Chasov-Yarsky direction, although the detachment was transferred in full force a little north, beyond Soledar.

P.S. The photo, by the way, shows one of the houses from which we had to work. During the two days that our group was there, 23 155-mm shells flew into it. However, glory to the Soviet builders: the basement of the house held up, although the house itself lost 2 entrances almost entirely.

Snp SpN ( https://t.me/SnpSpN ) - zinc

Air control and knocking out enemy FPV drone and quadcopter crews now plays a huge role in ensuring the success of offensive operations.

P.S. I remember that the enemy did not hesitate to throw Hymars and JDAMs at such houses in Chasov Yar.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9989809.html

Google Translator

******

Kit Klarenberg: Ukraine’s Corporate Carve-Up Collapses?
July 31, 2025
By Kit Klarenberg, Substack, 7/14/25

All my investigations are free to read, thanks to the enormous generosity of my readers. Independent journalism nonetheless requires investment, so if you value this article or any others, please consider sharing, or even becoming a paid subscriber. Your support is always gratefully received, and will never be forgotten. To buy me a coffee or two, please click this link.

On July 5th, Bloomberg reported that a BlackRock-administered multibillion-dollar fund for Kiev’s reconstruction, due to be unveiled at a dedicated Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome July 10th/11th, had been placed on hold at the start of 2025 “due to a lack of interest” among institutional, private, and state financiers. The summit is over, lack of investor enthusiasm persists, and “the project’s future is now uncertain.” It’s just the latest confirmation the West’s long-running mission to carve up Ukraine for profit verges on total disintegration.

BlackRock’s Ukraine Development Fund has been in the works since May 2023. It was originally envisaged as one of the most ambitious public-private finance collaborations in history, which would rival Washington’s Marshall Plan that rebuilt – and heavily indebted – Western Europe in World War II’s wake. With vast returns promised, initially investors were reportedly “ready to plow funds” into the endeavour, due to widespread optimism Kiev’s much-hyped “counteroffensive” later that year “might end the war quickly.”

In the event, the counteroffensive was an unmitigated disaster. Ukraine suffered up to 100,000 casualties, with much of its arsenal of Western-supplied armour, vehicles and weapons obliterated, in return for recapturing just 0.25% of the territory occupied by Russia in the proxy war’s initial phases. As BlackRock vice chair Philipp Hildebrand explained, the results killed off investor exuberance, as they required “the cessation of hostilities, or at the very least a perspective for peace.” Concerns about Ukraine’s ever-reducing skilled workforce were also widespread.

Fast forward to today, and there is no indication of any peace deal on the horizon, Russia is rapidly advancing across multiple fronts, and the Ukrainian government estimates the country has lost around 40% of its working-age population due to the proxy war. No wonder BlackRock’s Development Fund has failed to attract a single dollar. Quite what will remain of Ukraine when the conflict is over, and whether any financial returns can be gleaned from its ruins, are open, grave questions.

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The remnants of Bakhmut

The collapse of BlackRock’s Ukraine Development Fund is not only a microcosm of the impending, inevitable defeat of Kiev and its overseas puppetmasters in Donbass. It also reflects the death of the dream of breaking apart Ukraine’s industries and resources to untrammelled rape and pillage, long-held by Western corporations, oligarchs, and governments. Planning for this eventuality dates back to the country’s 1991 independence, producing concrete results following the 2014 Western-orchestrated Maidan coup, and becoming turbocharged once all-out proxy war erupted in February 2022.

‘Investment Climate’

From the start of 2013, Western corporations began moving en masse to buy up Ukraine wholesale. It was widely expected Kiev would that year enter into an “association agreement” with the EU, facilitating privatisation, and tearing up of longstanding laws restricting foreign purchase and ownership of the country’s untold agricultural riches. The former “breadbasket of the Soviet Union” is home to the equivalent of one third of the EU’s total arable land, and projected profits were voluminous.

That January, Anglo-Dutch MI6-linked energy giant Shell signed a 50-year deal with the Ukrainian government to explore and drill for natural gas via fracking in areas of Donetsk and Kharkov “believed to hold substantial natural gas.” Then, in May, notorious, now-defunct chemical giant Monsanto announced plans to invest $140 million in constructing a corn seed plant in the country’s agricultural heartlands. The company was a founding member of the US-Ukraine Business Council, established in October 1995 to “improve” Kiev’s “investment climate.”

USUBC’s treasurer was and remains David Kramer, who during Maidan also served as president of Freedom House, a National Endowment for Democracy division. NED was avowedly founded by the CIA to do publicly what the Agency historically did publicly. The Endowment and Freedom House were responsible for Ukraine’s 2004 “Orange Revolution”, which brought pro-Western puppet Viktor Yushchenko to power. He immediately implemented deeply unpopular neoliberal economic reforms, including slashing regulations and social spending. Yushchenko was voted out in 2010, securing just 5% of the vote.

Following Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s rejection of the EU association agreement in favour of a more advantageous deal offered by Russia in November 2013, the mass Maidan protests in Kiev were ignited by NED-affiliated actors, and fascist agitators. They raged until late February 2014, when Yanukovych fled the country. In the intervening time, Ukraine was plunged into total chaos – yet, firms associated with USUBC weren’t deterred. Many, including major companies with representatives on the organisation’s executive committee, continued making sizeable investments in Ukraine throughout.

Their undimmed enthusiasm may be explained by David Kramer being an alumni of Project for the New American Century, a neoconservative think tank widely credited with masterminding the Bush administration’s “War on Terror”. The organisation’s cofounder Robert Kagan is married to Victoria Nuland, at this time the State Department’s point person on Ukraine. She visited Kiev repeatedly during the Maidan “revolution”, and hand-picked Yanukovych’s replacement interim government. Nuland was thus well-placed to know USUBC member investments in Ukraine would be safe long-term.

‘Trade Opportunities’

Nuland’s fascist interim government was replaced in June 2014 by an administration led by far-right Petro Poroshenko, who stood on an explicit platform of privatising state industries. The President passed legislation enabling this in March 2016. Two years later, his government adopted sweeping laws to further facilitate the auctioning off of Kiev’s public assets and industry to foreign actors. However, a moratorium on private sale of arable land, imposed in 2001, remained in place. No matter – in August 2018, the European Court of Human Rights ruled this was illegal.

There was still one problem, though. Opinion polls consistently showed Ukrainian citizens overwhelmingly rejected privatisation, and the sale of their country’s agricultural land to overseas buyers. As luck would have it, the proxy war’s eruption, and imposition of martial law, allowed for industrial scale trampling by Volodomyr Zelensky’s government over public opinion, and political opposition. Throughout 2022, a series of controversial laws intended to “make privatization as easy as possible for foreign investors” were passed without hindrance.

In the process, close to 1,000 nationalised enterprises were offered up for overseas sale, and auctions for purchase of these entities “under simplified terms” convened. The next year, these efforts intensified, with further legislation enacted enabling “large-scale privatisation of state assets and state companies.” This was reportedly motivated by “the attractiveness” of Ukraine’s “large state assets to institutional investors.” They included an Odessa-based ammonia factory, major mining and chemical firms, one of the country’s leading power generators, and a producer of high-quality titanium products.

Encouraged by the West’s reception to these moves, in July 2024 Kiev announced a dedicated “Large-Scale Privatisation” plan, with yet more prize assets under the hammer. Little wonder two months later, a British Foreign Office briefing document openly acknowledged it viewed “the invasion not only as a crisis, but also as an opportunity.” London’s primary economic aid project in Ukraine is explicitly concerned with ensuring the country “adopts and implements economic reforms that create a more inclusive economy, enhancing trade opportunities with the UK.”

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The objectives of Britain’s “Good Governance Fund” in Ukraine

The previous January, the World Economic Forum’s annual congress was convened in Davos, Switzerland. The proxy war, and Kiev’s economic future, loomed large on the event’s agenda. Its centrepiece was a breakout breakfast attended by political leaders and business bigwigs, where Zelensky appeared via videolink. The President thanked “giants of the international financial and investment world,” including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan, for buying up his country’s assets during wartime. He boldly promised, “everyone can become a big business by working with Ukraine.”

Subsequently, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink pledged to coordinate billions of dollars in reconstruction financing for Kiev, forecasting the country would become a “beacon of capitalism” resultantly. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs chief David Solomon spoke with intense optimism about Kiev’s post-war future, and the gains his firm and other major Western financial institutions would reap. “There is no question that as you rebuild, there will be good economic incentives for real return and real investment,” he crowed.

Zelensky spoke at multiple events held in Davos over the five-day-long conference’s course, where pro-Kiev sentiment was reportedly “overwhelming”. The President spoke of recapturing Crimea, and demanded attendees “give us your weapons.” His audiences were invariably highly receptive. On one panel, Boris Johnson, who personally sabotaged fruitful peace talks between Kiev and Moscow in April 2022, urged Zelensky be provided “the tools he needs to finish the job.” The disgraced former British Prime Minister boomed, “Give them the tanks! There’s absolutely nothing to be lost!”

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In years to come, the January 2023 Davos summit may be viewed both as the high point of Ukraine’s proxy war effort, and roughly when everything began to spectacularly unravel. The desired weapons arrived in huge quantities, to no effect. Kiev’s three biggest military efforts since, all British-planned – that year’s counteroffensive, the Krynky incursion, and Kursk “counterinvasion” – were deeply costly cataclysms, leaving Ukraine undermanned and ill-equipped to fend off Russian advances. Countries that supplied munitions borderline disarmed themselves in the process.

The Ukraine Recovery Conference passed without much media interest, despite a literal red carpet being rolled out for Zelensky, and multiple senior EU officials – including Ursula von der Leyen – and European state leaders attending. It ended with vague commitments to drum up €10 billion in private sector investments for Ukraine. Evidently, Western ambitions of making a mint out of Kiev haven’t been fully jettisoned – even if the World Bank calculates the total cost of rebuilding the country to be $524 billion.

In a speech, von der Leyen pledged to support Ukraine “militarily, financially, and politically” for “as long as it takes.” Meanwhile, there is little indication that Britain has given up on making Kiev safe for neoliberalism and its own profit, despite London’s covert commitment to “keeping Ukraine fighting at all costs.” Of course, the longer the lost proxy war grinds on, the less Ukraine there will be to rebuild, and reap returns from. But apparently, this unambiguous reality is lost on the proxy war’s sponsors. God help us all.

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Aug 03, 2025 12:23 pm

Diplomacy of force
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/08/2025

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“Peace through strength,” the head of the President’s Office, Andriy Ermak, wrote Friday night, adding an emoji of a flexing bicep, in one of his many displays of triumphalism this week. These days, the Ukrainian government has been struggling with having to backtrack on one of its flagship measures in response to international orders, but, faced with the humiliation and complete lack of sovereignty that comes with a phone call from Brussels that can change the laws in Ukraine, Kiev has also received confirmation that it is about to find itself in its dream scenario. The peace through strength that Ukraine has always hoped for is the language of the ultimatum, with unbearable sanctions against Russia, massive arms supplies with which to attack Russian territory in depth, and a ceasefire offer on Ukrainian terms, in which Moscow has no say other than to accept the diktat . That was the Victory Plan . that Zelensky announced when he still believed that the 2023 ground counteroffensive would put Russia between a rock and a hard place, and it remains so today, with his army unable to recapture territories under Russian control, recruitment problems increasing, and his government questioned for the first time since the Russian invasion by its most important audience: the foreign partners who must continue to finance the state.

In the division of labor, Kiev relies on the European Union to sustain Ukraine, but it needs the United States to destroy Russia. On Thursday, a few hours after Trump gave Vladimir Putin a week to accept the ceasefire, Volodymyr Zelensky stated his belief that "Russia can be pressured to end this war. It started it, and it can be forced to end it. But if the world doesn't intend to change the regime in Russia, that means that even after the war is over, Moscow will continue trying to destabilize neighboring countries." Clearly, when it comes to regime change, Ukraine always looks to the United States, which it assumes has the capacity to destabilize the country to the point of a coup or collapse. What the United States has successfully done in Iraq and Libya, with the consequences for those countries and their neighbors, is what Zelensky is now openly suggesting. The Ukrainian president is shielding himself by arguing that Donald Trump's position is increasingly indistinguishable from his own, allowing him to continue pushing for even more than the large quantities of weapons expected to arrive shortly, or the sanctions already being advocated by the White House.

“President Trump, of course, understands leverage better than anyone. And I think his statement about introducing what I would call devastating tariffs and sanctions against Russia on August 8, in the absence of a ceasefire, is a serious step. Because how does Russia finance this war? How can it pay a conscript, a private, who will likely go to the front and die two weeks after minimal training?” the US ambassador to NATO said this week, projecting onto Russia the problems—recruitment, lack of decent training, and short life expectancy on the front lines—that Ukraine also suffers. “The bottom line is that Putin needs to sell oil. He sells it to China, India, Brazil. And now these countries will face serious consequences for doing business with Russia. Russia will have no friends, no trading partners, and its ability to finance the war will cease,” he added. Yesterday, Andriy Ermak boasted about India’s plans to abandon Russian oil, while The New York Times , which reported that “Indian officials said they will continue buying cheap Russian oil despite President Trump’s threat of sanctions, the latest twist in an issue New Delhi thought it had resolved,” quoted the foreign ministry spokesman as confirming that the country has not issued any orders to halt Russian oil purchases.

“We will apply sanctions against him, and he is very good at managing them. He knows how to avoid them,” Donald Trump declared this week, prompting media headlines that have cast doubt on the US intention to apply truly harsh sanctions against Russia and its allies. Those who still claim that Vladimir Putin ordered an operation to help Donald Trump reach the White House in 2017 insist on the closeness of the two presidents and question the US president's words and actions at this time. However, for several months now, Trump's anger has been directed solely at Moscow. There have been no repeated scenes of rebukes toward Zelensky. The brief suspension of arms deliveries to kyiv was the work of the Pentagon and not the presidency. It is clear that both the State Department and Donald Trump himself are guided by information relayed by Keith Kellogg, a man very close to the Ukrainian leadership.

“I was just informed that almost 20,000 Russian soldiers have died this month in this ridiculous War with Ukraine. Russia has lost 112,500 soldiers since the beginning of the year. That's a lot of unnecessary DEATH! Ukraine, however, has also suffered greatly. They have lost approximately 8,000 soldiers since January 1, 2025, and that number does not include those missing. Ukraine has also lost civilians, albeit in smaller numbers, when Russian rockets hit Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. This war should never have happened; this is Biden's war, not "TRUMP's." I'm just here to see if I can stop it!” he wrote on his personal social media account on Friday, in a message in which, like Rubio a few days earlier, he claims that Russia has lost more than 100,000 soldiers killed this year, while providing a ridiculous figure for Ukrainian casualties. Curiously, the US president does not mention Russian civilian casualties.

The military casualty data transmitted by Trump, undoubtedly coming from Ukraine, would imply a ratio of 14:1 in favor of Ukraine, much higher than what even Kiev has alleged in the past and which would have undoubtedly been detected by those, such as Mediazona , who track Russian casualties. The latest count up to August 1, 2025, recorded 121,507 Russian soldiers killed in the war in that database, a very high figure that should concern the Russian leadership, but inconsistent with the current casualty claims beyond all logic. The fact that Trump uses arguments that possibly come from Ukraine's military intelligence office is relevant since his opinion has always been malleable and tends to be the same as that of the person who influences him most at any given time. It seems obvious from his argument that today that person is Keith Kellogg, whose plan is to increase the flow of arms to Ukraine if Russia refuses to negotiate.

In reality, Moscow hasn't rejected negotiations, although it has rejected the one demanded by the West and Ukraine. On Friday, Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that "we know who makes the decisions in Russia, and that's why Ukraine once again offers to go beyond technical talks: not to exchange statements, but to actually meet at the leadership level." Like European countries, Ukraine is seeking the ceasefire demanded by Trump, who at that very moment would declare victory and boast of having stopped another war that, like the previous ones he claims to have resolved, would not mean the end of the conflict. That is the only resolution . a meeting of presidents can achieve in an eleven-year conflict in which there are thorny territorial, political, military, and humanitarian issues to resolve. Hours before Zelensky's statements, both Sergey Lavrov and Vladimir Putin had offered Ukraine the negotiation scenario that Kiev seeks to avoid at all costs. “Three rounds of talks have already been held. In addition to important humanitarian agreements, we have put forward a proposal to create working groups on political and military issues. This could be a major step toward a lasting agreement,” Lavrov told reporters.

“It's time for Russians to put aside empty words and living in a fantasy world and face reality: a leaders' meeting is possible, but it's Russia that doesn't want it. Too many statements about “wanting peace” while missile attacks continue, and not a single real step toward peace from Moscow. Where is the ceasefire the United States proposed in March, the one we agreed to? The US president is doing a lot to achieve peace. President Zelensky shares the principle of peace through strength. It's time for Russia to stop sitting on the sidelines and start being specific,” wrote Ermak, who, in a slightly more expansive manner, presented the path to resolution to which Ukraine continues to aspire: a ceasefire imposed by Donald Trump without future promises of a resolution that would have to be based on negotiations, which Ukraine could drag out as it did for seven years in Minsk. Russia's way of being specific is not by offering concrete negotiations on specific issues, but by submitting to Donald Trump's ceasefire order and accepting that subsequent negotiations would be based on Keith Kellogg's roadmap, which is absolutely favorable to Ukraine on territorial and security issues, and even on the issue of sanctions relief, rather than Steve Witkoff's, which is less detailed and offers more room for negotiation.

Creating conditions in which Russia is forced to accept a US-imposed peace—which kyiv would present as imposed by its armed forces—requires weakening Moscow in all areas: economic, political, geopolitical, and military. Sanctions and threats against third countries with unilateral sanctions seek to isolate Russia economically and politically as well as undermine its ability to continue financing the war. This action fails to take into account that the greater involvement of a country like the United States could have a boomerang effect in which the Russian population feels attacked by the West and sees, as the Kremlin insists, that the war in Ukraine is existential. Added to these economic threats are military ones, some of them truly insane. These are no longer announcements of a sharp increase in military supplies to kyiv, something that has been taken for granted since Trump got European countries to agree to pay all the costs, but rather the use of the language that inspires the most respect in Russia: nuclear.

The Medvedev factor

On July 22, Dmitry Medvedev, former president and prime minister of Russia, now vice president of the Security Council—a position that carries more publicity than decision-making power—harshly criticized the United States' actions in the Middle East, specifically in Iran. Medvedev, once a liberal considered pro-Western but now a hawk with excessive use of social media, argued that the US attack had been counterproductive. In a longer thread, the former Russian president wrote that “Nuclear enrichment—and, we can now openly say it, the future production of nuclear weapons—will continue” in Iran, adding that “several countries are willing to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear weapons.” A minimal understanding of Russia's stance on proliferation, or even a reading of the message, would have ruled out the suggestion that Dmitry Medvedev was suggesting that Moscow, which respected the UN Security Council arms embargo on Iran, took years to supply Iran with the air defenses it requested, and has offered no material assistance to the country while it was under attack by the United States and Israel, was preparing to breach its nonproliferation obligations. Even so, the tweet drew the ire of Donald Trump and forced Medvedev to respond. In a far more diplomatic style than usual, the former president wrote that "Regarding President Trump's concerns: I condemn the US attack on Iran. It did not achieve its objectives. However, Russia has no intention of supplying nuclear weapons to Iran because, unlike Israel, we are signatories to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty." Medvedev's partial reversal was merely a Twitter ceasefire that exploded this week after the former Russian president responded to a tweet from Lindsey Graham and another comment that Donald Trump tried to interpret as a threat.

It all started with Dmitry Medvedev’s response to Donald Trump’s 50-day ultimatum on the day it was reduced to “ten or twelve.” At the time, he wrote that “Trump is playing ultimatum games with Russia: 50 days or 10… He should remember two things: 1. Russia is not Israel, not even Iran. 2. Every new ultimatum is a threat and a step toward war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country. Don’t go the way of Sleepy Joe !” Although there was nothing offensive in the message, it was retweeted by Lindsey Graham, exulting in his success in convincing Donald Trump to return to the threat-against-Russia tactic followed by Joe Biden, who, as a US senator, gave himself the legitimacy to boss another country around. “To those in Russia who believe President Trump isn't serious about ending the bloodshed between Russia and Ukraine: You and your clients will soon be sadly mistaken. You will also soon see that Joe Biden is no longer president. Go to the peace table,” he wrote, to which Medvedev responded with a tweet that offended Graham: “It is not for you or Trump to dictate when to sit at the negotiating table. Negotiations will end when all objectives of our military operation have been achieved. Let's work for America first, Grandpa!” It was likely this last message that set the cat off. Without Lindsey Graham's ear, Donald Trump would likely have ignored Medvedev's tirade.

On Thursday, in a message calling the Russian and Indian economies “dead,” Donald Trump wrote, “Tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who still thinks he’s the President, to watch his words. He’s entering very dangerous territory.” In a style not unlike the US President—who, after his 2020 reelection failure, believed he was still President and has never mince his words—Medvedev responded with a longer message: “Regarding Trump’s threats to me on his personal network, Truth, which he banned from operating in our country. If a few words from the former President of Russia provoke such a nervous reaction from such an imposing US President, it means Russia is absolutely right and will go its own way. And regarding India and Russia’s “dead economy” and “entering dangerous territory,” let him recall his favorite movies about the “dead walkers,” as well as how dangerous the nonexistent “dead hand” can be.”

None of Medvedev's messages, long removed from the circle of important decision-making, can be considered a threat. However, the accumulation of mentions about the possibility of a direct war between powers, the reference to zombie characters from American films or TV series (the walking dead from The Walking Dead), and the insult to Lindsey Graham have been enough to see in his words a threat of nuclear war. "Words are dangerous," Donald Trump asserted on Friday, ready to use any argument to raise tension, increase pressure on Russia, and unnerve Moscow in order to force the Kremlin to fear the possible reaction of the American leader as early as August 8. Words may be dangerous, but apparently not the nuclear submarines that Trump claimed were mobilized because of Dmitry Medvedev's statements, which Donald Trump described as "defensive." "We had to do it... There was a threat and we didn't think it was appropriate, so I have to be very careful. I'm doing it for the safety of our people," Donald Trump argued on Friday night. Faced with speculation about whether he meant nuclear-powered or nuclear-armed submarines, or whether it was an order from the Pentagon or just words, Trump clarified yesterday that they are "closer to Russia," a response that explains nothing but seeks to continue increasing the pressure. Trump, who likes to highlight his successes, can now boast of being the first president in history to mobilize nuclear submarines in response to a former president's tweets.

Continuing with the television similes, showing the euphoria that Donald Trump, the president of peace, has crossed another red line, using the word "nuclear" in the context of the confrontation with Russia and with the arrogance of someone who expects their partner to achieve by force what they have not been able to achieve on their own, Ukraine remains exultant. “We all watched wrestling. In Ukraine, it was tremendously popular, when TV broadcast matches featuring Ric Flair, Hulk Hogan, The Undertaker, and Stone Cold. All the kids were glued to the screen: it was a time of power and personality. And what Donald Trump did yesterday in response to Medvedev's comments was a classic Tombstone Piledriver. Calm. Powerful. Confident. Just the way it should be,” wrote Andriy Ermak, referring to one of Donald Trump's favorite shows, the wrestling company headed by Vince McMahon, husband of the current Minister of Education, which for decades has run this fake show, plagued by drug trafficking scandals and sexual and labor abuse, and in which President Trump has repeatedly participated.

The image posted by Ermak, a retro-style drawing of Donald Trump grabbing a defeated Vladimir Putin by the feet, about to throw him to the mat WWE-style, reflects the current state of the Western world, as it waits for Donald Trump to destroy Russia. The childishness of the drawing may also be representative of that way of thinking.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/03/diplo ... -fuerza-2/

Google Translator

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From cassad's Telegram accout:

The Pentagon's "Golden Rockets": Why American "Superweapons" Are Too Expensive for War

While the US military boasts about cutting-edge technology, the reality is much more prosaic. The Pentagon's latest developments are turning into astronomically expensive projects that the US simply cannot afford to use in real combat.

The main pride of the US military, the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile system (officially LRHW), exists only in theory so far. The missile is supposed to hit targets at a range of 2,776 km at a speed of over 6,000 km/h (more than Mach 5), which sounds impressive on paper.

The first Dark Eagle battery was ceremoniously deployed at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington state back in 2021. There are launchers, there are trained personnel from the 5th Battalion, 3rd Artillery Regiment, there is all the infrastructure. What is missing are the missiles themselves. For four years now, American soldiers have been training with mock-ups and inert munitions.

The first combat missiles were promised for delivery by May 2025, then the deadline was pushed back to September. As of mid-2025, the exact delivery dates remain uncertain due to the fact that the new army leadership has not yet made a final decision on the deployment of the system.

The cost of one Dark Eagle missile has become the subject of bureaucratic disputes in the United States itself:

• $41 million is an optimistic estimate by the Congressional Budget Office for the production of 300 missiles
• $106 million is a realistic calculation by the US Army with the current volume of 66 missiles
• $29 million is the official figure in the 2025 budget

Even by the most conservative estimate, one American hypersonic missile costs as much as 3-4 Russian Kinzhals. At the same time, Russian systems have been in serial production for several years and are actively used in combat.

The situation with the THAAD missile defense system, which is supposed to protect US allies from ballistic missiles, is even more indicative .

• Cost per interceptor: $12.6 million
• Production in 2024: 11 missiles in total
• Planned for 2025: 12 missiles
• Maximum production capacity: 96 missiles per year

The 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran in June 2025 was a disaster for the American stockpile. The United States expended 100-150 THAAD missiles, or 25% of the entire arsenal of these interceptors.

The cost of the operation was $810 million - $1.2 billion for THAAD alone. At the current rate of production, it will take 12-15 years to replenish the losses.

The operations in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden were another painful reminder of the economic vulnerability of American systems. To intercept relatively cheap Houthi drones and missiles, the US Navy is forced to use:

• Standard Missiles cost up to $4 million each
• More than 100 of these missiles have already been expended
• Total costs have exceeded $400 million

At the same time, the Houthi drones cost tens of times less than the American interceptors - a classic example of the asymmetry of "the cost of attack versus the cost of defense."

The situation reveals the fundamental problem of the American military machine:

1. Production crisis: The rate of production is critically low - 11-12 THAAD missiles per year against the need for hundreds
2. Economic instability: The cost of American systems is 3-10 times higher than Russian and Chinese analogues
3. Vulnerability in a protracted conflict: at the rate of consumption shown in the Middle East conflict, US reserves will be depleted in 48 days

As American analysts note, the high cost limits reserves, which is why the systems "lack the volume needed to counter the huge number" of platforms of potential adversaries.

American military technology may be cutting-edge, but economic realities make it prohibitively expensive to deploy. While Russia and China are ramping up mass production of relatively affordable systems, the US is bogged down in developing one-off "wonder weapons" it can't afford to lose in combat.

@darpaandcia

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

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Brief Frontline Report – August 2nd, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Aug 02, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "Units of the "South" Group have decisively liberated the settlement of Aleksandro-Kalinovo in the Donetsk People's Republic."

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ЛБС 09.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 9th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

The village of Aleksandro-Kalinovo (48°24′46″N 37°40′24″E, approximately 800 residents), together with the village of Yablonovka forms a single unit and is located in a tactically advantageous defensive position. The Armed Forces of Ukraine's defensive area (in these settlements) is anchored at the confluence of two rivers (the Bychok and Kalinovka, visible on the second map), with its left flank protected by the Kleban-Byk Reservoir. If considering this area as part of the defense of the city of Konstantinovka, this constitutes the right flank of the AFU's Konstantinovka defensive sector.

The destruction of the AFU's Yablonovka-Aleksandro-Kalinovo defensive area allows Russian forces to begin eliminating the AFU's Stepanovka-Dolgaya Balka defensive strongholds, which covers an important transport hub: the Konstantinovka-Shakhovo (Shakhovo is visible on the second map as well; this road connect the Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk sectors) lateral road (the road running parallel to the front) that supplies the entire AFU reserve line deployed along this axis, and the radial route (perpendicular to the front) Dolgaya Balka-Nikolaypolye-Druzhkovka (Druzhkovka is just north of where the map cuts off) linking this AFU defensive sector with deep Ukraine. By advancing to Dolgaya Balka village and the cascade of ponds north of it, Russian forces will achieve a deep envelopment of Konstantinovka from the west and threaten the AFU's Berestok-Ivanopolye defensive area.

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ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

On the Konstantinovka-Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) map, the AFU's Yablonovka-Aleksandro-Kalinovo strongpoint occupies the left flank of the line of combat contact where the AFU deployed its reserves, connecting the Yablonovka-Shakhovo area.

Examining this operational sector, we see that the liberation of Aleksandro-Kalinovo village is a stage in the operation to completely eliminate the AFU's defensive area on the western side of the Kleban-Byk Reservoir and create conditions for an offensive along the Stepanovka-Dolgaya Balka line. In addition to outflanking Konstantinovka from the west, this axis splits the Konstantinovka-Krasnoarmeysk line in two with a deep wedge.

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Furthermore, developing the offensive on our left flank of this sector (Mayak-Shakhovo-Sofiyevka, blue circle area on the 3rd map) drives another wedge, reliably cutting off the Pokrovsk AFU defensive hub from its main strategic supply base in the Slavyansk-Druzhkovka-Konstantinovka area (red circle on the third map) of the DPR.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... august-2nd

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Le Monde: Across Ukraine, new military cemeteries are planned
August 2, 2025 natyliesb
Le Monde, 7/20/25

Sections reserved for soldiers are at capacity. Across the country, teams of architects have been working on memorials that reflect not only the scale of the ongoing carnage but also the evolving ideas about national identity.

It’s a sandy track, well-hidden among the pines, off the highway connecting Kyiv to Odesa in the Hatne region. The outline of a newly dug off-ramp, carved by bulldozers and still unmarked, signals the start of a massive construction site. This is the highway exit that will serve as Ukraine’s future national military memorial cemetery. The project is enormous, highly sensitive and not just because environmental activists and residents of the small village of Markhalivka – 40 kilometers from the capital, but right at the base of the future cemetery – worry about deforestation and the loss of their rural quiet.

In the village, only a new brown sign, the color used to mark national sites, marks the road that leads trucks to the site. It reads in English: “National Military Memorial Cemetery.” A first section, designed to hold 10,000 graves and already laid out with broad granite paths, benches and lime trees, is due to receive its first burial this summer. But in the long term, “130,000 or even 160,000” people will be laid to rest at this future burial ground, explained architect Serhi Derbin, clad in khaki linen trousers and a straw panama hat, under the blazing July sun.

“Here will be the main entrance,” explained the young man leading this project, which has a budget of more than €37 million. “Below, there’s a shelter for 300 people, in case of bombardment.” The reinforced bunker is a first for a cemetery. Over there, a “house of mourning” for ceremonies, should it be cold or rainy. “And here, the memorial,” the architect continued, sweeping his arms wide to indicate the 120 hectares set aside for the future cemetery, and the 260-hectare estate beyond.

Perhaps the construction projects rising across Ukraine say more about the scale of the slaughter than statistics ever could. The number of soldiers killed in action since the start of the Russian invasion remains a closely guarded secret. In February, President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned more than 46,000 Ukrainian military personnel killed and 380,000 wounded since February 2022, not including the “tens of thousands” listed as “missing” or held captive by Russian forces. The real death toll is likely much higher.

Passion for ‘memorial subjects’

The giant cemetery project, overseen by the Ministry for Veterans Affairs but closely monitored by the president’s office, has not emerged without controversy. “One day in June 2023,” recalled Anton Drobovych, former president of the National Institute of Remembrance, “I got a call from Bankova Street [the seat of the Ukrainian presidency]. They told me the memorial would be built at Bykivnia,” a site near Kyiv where victims of Stalin’s purges in the late 1930s were buried. At the time, Drobovych was serving with “the paratroopers” in the Zaporizhzhia area during the Ukrainian counteroffensive. He jumped: “You want to build a cemetery on what used to be a mass grave? That’s a grave, historic mistake!”

After much hesitation, public petitions and local protests, the Hatne site was chosen. “I was the only competitor, architects here have little interest in cemeteries,” admitted Derbin. Head of a Kyiv real estate project agency, he has been passionate about “memorial subjects” since 2021, working on projects like the towering flagpoles overlooking the cities of Dnipro and Kryvy Rih. War, unfortunately, has brought new perspectives. In Yahidne, a village near Chernihiv where 350 parents and children were held captive in the school basement in March 2022, and 27 died, he is preparing a museum to commemorate the occupation and Russian war crimes.

Each sector of the future Hatne military cemetery will be organized around a central columbarium, designed to encourage more Ukrainians to consider cremation, a practice that remains uncommon. Temporary white oak graves will hold the first “heroes” as well as the remains of unidentified soldiers. “No more than a year,” warned Derbin. “We are in the 21st century. In the age of DNA research, we reject the outdated “unknown soldier” concept.” To aid future identification, details that could help identify the deceased – distinctive marks (tattoos, scars, etc.) and genetic fingerprints – will be inscribed on the headstones of these anonymous graves.

White stone

Burial space is running out across Ukraine. In Lviv, a major city in western Ukraine, the city hall avoided controversy by involving families in its plans. A year ago, it began a wide-ranging public consultation to rethink the redevelopment of its “Field of Mars,” a plot with 1,000 graves adjacent to the famous Lychakiv Cemetery, the city’s version of Paris’s Père-Lachaise Cemetery, where sculpted tombs and statues tell the story of a vanished century: writers’ quills, violins, sheet music and manuscripts. Around 6 pm, as the workday ends, a stream of cars comes to lay flowers on the fresh graves that have appeared since February 2022, their yellow and blue flags – or red and black nationalist flags – snapping in the wind. Here, no two graves are alike.

For 12 months, the families of the deceased gathered in Lviv city hall’s vast hall with a team of architects to rethink a cemetery that had sprung up too quickly. “Lighting, flowers, the stone – we discussed everything. Sometimes widows would come with four children,” recounted Anton Kolomeitsev, the city’s architect. The winning design, chosen on May 30, underwent revisions, but the final plan is now set. Each plot will be redesigned with terrazzo stone, juniper bushes among the graves, niches for candles and so on.

But the “Field of Mars” faces another problem. “There are already only 40 plots left. That will last barely two months,” admitted the young Kolomeitsev in his stylish, minimalist office in the 19th-century city hall. The city is now also planning a new military cemetery. “It will be built somewhere in the city or outside Lviv – an announcement is imminent.” It will likely follow the new trends of Ukrainian funerary aesthetics: park-like spaces, large esplanades for ceremonies, white stone…

All graves are the same size, regardless of the rank of the deceased. And, for the vast majority of believers, they are decorated with “Cossack” crosses – the Maltese cross shape – a military tradition from the 19th century. The benches near the graves, where families once shared a meal or a glass of vodka, have disappeared: “That was a Soviet tradition,” explained Derbin, “because it was the only place the KGB wouldn’t listen in.”

American influence can also be seen. “I visited Arlington Cemetery near Washington,” said Kolomeitsev, “where veterans of all American wars are buried. Here in Lviv, we too had to answer a difficult question: How do you bring together the dead from various conflicts since the early 20th century?”

Families of veterans of the Donbas war in 2014 want their loved ones included in these new cemeteries. And what about those who defended Ukraine outside front-line brigades – civilians who gathered intelligence for the Ukrainian military in occupied territories, volunteers who evacuated the wounded and families, raised donations or built drones, Ukrainian journalists reporting on Russian war crimes? The debate has not yet officially begun, but the idea has been gaining traction in Ukrainian society. “Military memorials are bricks in the wall of national identity,” argued Drobovytch.

Building cemeteries in Ukraine also means marking, in real time, the shifting frontlines of war – even in the worst ways. In Milove, on the Russian border, architect Derbin’s “bell of memory,” dedicated to Ukraine’s liberators in World War II, has already been toppled. “Before the major invasion [in February 2022], I designed the ‘Avenue of Heroes’ honoring those killed since 2014 in Sievierodonetsk.” That gallery of portraits was dismantled by Russian forces. “They want to erase memory and memories,” sighed the Kyiv architect. “I try to chase the dark thoughts from my mind, but I have no doubt that ‘they’ will bomb a cemetery one day.”

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/08/le- ... %20THIS%3A

Le Monde oughta be ashamed for spewing those Nazi talking points. Regardless, Ukraine's boneyards are filling up for Western policy.

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Zelensky Calls on Kiev’s Allies to Encourage “Regime Change” in Russia

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(FILE) Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky. Photo: EFE.

August 1, 2025 Hour: 3:56 am

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has urged Western nations to push for a government change in Russia as a supposedly necessary step to safeguard themselves from what he claims is ongoing “Russian aggression.”

Speaking at a conference marking the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Accords, which championed equal security for all nations, Zelensky called on his Western supporters to take more drastic actions to counter Russia’s actions. In contrast, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov published an article marking the occasion, accusing the West of abandoning the core principles of the Accords and blaming this betrayal for the conflict’s escalation.

Zelensky alleged that Moscow would continue to destabilize neighboring nations if the current leadership remains in power. “If the world doesn’t aim to change the regime in Russia, then even if the war ends, Russia will still seek to undermine its neighbors,” he said, adding that it’s time to “seize Russian assets” and use them to fund militarization against Russia.

Meanwhile, Putin’s administration has firmly rejected claims that it plans to attack NATO or the EU, dismissing such fears as “nonsense.” Lavrov accused the European Union of descending into a “Fourth Reich” for its rising anti-Russian sentiment and increasing militarization.


On that line, President Vladimir Putin has accused Western states of deceiving their populations to justify inflated military budgets and cover up economic failures.

Russia, while expressing its willingness to negotiate a peace settlement, has also criticized Kiev’s regime and its Western allies for showing little interest in finding a lasting resolution to the conflict. Moscow argues that Ukrainian leadership’s refusal to address the territorial realities of the conflict has obstructed any potential solution.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/zelensky ... in-russia/

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Yes, Absolutely.

It also retreats to Moscow.

The Russian Military Is Falling Apart https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/th ... baf5&ei=10

Now you know, the truth is out. But give Russians the credit where the credit is due--they hid it extremely well. How about hiding it by steady advance to the West, while annihilating NATO's SOBs? Such a cunning. But then again, look at the background of this "author".

Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor's degree from DePauw University and a master's degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.

And that is why NATO is a paper tiger incapable of real war, with experts and consultants like these ...

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/07 ... utely.html

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The REAL reason why Trump scrapped his own 50 day ‘deadline’ for Putin

Martin Jay

July 30, 2025

Trump is certainly losing patience in Ukraine, Martin Jay writes.

It’s impossible to say if the rumours are true that Trump is trying a soft coup in Ukraine by nudging Zelensky out of office and replacing him with the former army general Valerii Zaluzhny. But these reports, which seem to be born from comments by legendary U.S. journalist Seymour Hersh, are starting to circle, albeit in the form of fringe media. Legacy media so far, while not writing up the rumours, seems to be doing its bit though to encourage Zelensky to leave office, with the recent unprecedented attacks both by the FT and the British spectator magazine shocking many with their expose of his more authoritarian style of governance.

When Zelensky removed Zaluzhny from the top military post, rumours circulated both in Ukraine and within some of the more highbrow western outlets that were close to America’s daily dealings with the Ukrainian president that the move was political. While Zaluzhny did have some problems with Zelensky over strategy, it was also suspected that the army chief also had political ambitions of his own. Indeed it is odd that an army chief would take to writing editorials for western media outlets while also briefing journalists that he didn’t agree with Zelensky’s strategies. Something had to be done with him so rather than throw him in jail, which would have risked a political uproar, it was decided to make him a victim of a political shuffle. He got moved to the UK where he is Ukraine’s ambassador. That move might prove to be a serious oversight by Zelensky as it put Zaluzhny closer to the belly of the beast.

While Zaluzhny looks every bit the part of a burly military figure in army fatigues, his facial hair arrangement – more like a religious fanatic – and stocky build give him more of a look akin to a night club bouncer than a leader of a country. And so if he is being groomed by Trump, it might suggest that the thinking is that a military dictator now is what is required in Ukraine to keep the peace when a new deal is signed off with Russia. A military man who is able to keep an army in order, disciplined and ready to defend new borders and who knows who is paying the bills.

Trump is certainly losing patience in Ukraine. His recent more bellicose comments about Putin and the delusional threats he has alluded to carrying out are hardly deft political moves, given Russia’s strength militarily. And so it would seem obvious that Trump will look to make a dramatic move soon so that he can, in his mind at least, garner more respect from Putin. Replacing Zelensky is the lowest hanging fruit there is and it’s likely he will grab it. Perhaps more than setting a new balance of power between Trump and Putin, it would also be a very smart move to put the Europeans in order. The message will be clear to France, Britain and Germany: I’m calling the shots here.

The idea from the Europeans was that, in the event of a peace deal being struck, Ukraine could host scores of thousands of western soldiers to supposedly fend off a Russian threat. Trump may well go along with that, but he will want to be the one who controls them, rather than European leaders and so a NATO operation might be feasible. NATO itself is going through a seismic panic attack about its own credibility as the further the Russian front line advances, the more its bosses and western leaders realise that its own credibility wanes. It’s the main reason why this constant narrative, which is promoted by senior British army officers, that Britain and other NATO countries need to prepare “for war with Russia in five years” keeps being offered, despite no explanation whatsoever why in five years, or any shred of intel is offered to even show this new Russian threat. It is of course folly and largely driven by the military’s worry that it will itself be downsized as more cost cutting is inevitably rolled out by a failed economy and a clueless government. The case for this fake news being promoted is even stronger for the security services who also worry about jobs and so the Russian threat has to be sexed up, just as the case against Saddam Hussein was which led to entirely fake intel being the main justification for the 2003 Iraq invasion.

For Russia, a newly elected President in Ukraine would be a positive move. Putin has always been concerned about signing any deals with Zelensky which later on maybe abandoned given that his own mandate in office has expired. It would, after all, not be the first time the West has pulled the stunt of signing a peace treaty with Russia only for it to toss it aside. The Minsk agreements were really a fake deal for the West’s dirty tricks and so Putin is not going to sign anything with a leader whose current period in office is illegitimate.

For Trump and the West there are obvious advantages in having someone in power who is going to be servile to their needs and breaks this routine of Europe using Zelensky as a way of tackling Trump. Zaluhzny would be Trump’s man and the Europeans would have to accept it and whatever deal Trump goes for. That is, of course a deal can be done. Trump might be thinking of installing the former army chief as President simply as a way of building up Ukraine’s potential new threat to Russia if relations sour between him and Putin as he even said before he was elected in his second term that an option would always be to beef up with Ukrainian army and take on Russia if he didn’t get his way with a peace deal.

The real mistake for Zelensky is that he didn’t show the required respect for Trump when the cameras were rolling which marked him from the beginning as dispensable. With Zaluhzny the relationship will be more subservient although it’s worth noting the number of times installed dictators of the west invariably turn on their masters. The adage of ‘don’t bite the hand that feeds you’ is rarely respected in recent years. Typically it is Trump’s pathetic ego which makes enemies of those he should be trying to understand and work with. He realised recently that the 50 day “deadline” he imposed on Putin to find a solution in Ukraine made him look silly. The stunt he played with the EU recently to secure a 15% tariff deal should not give him the required hubris though to threaten Putin. Different game players and stakes. Trump’s ego now has forced him to make a stand against Putin and for how poorly the Europeans have treated him.

Yet installing Zeluhnzy will not be the game changer that Trump hopes for as the reports intensify on Russia taking the region and, at some point, the city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. When that happens, key supply routes will be cut off to the Ukrainian army which will allow Russian forces to advance quickly to take neighbouring regions. The goons in the Pentagon have obviously told Trump this which is why he hasn’t got 50 days before NATO will possibly suffer its greatest humiliation to date which could spark a crisis of confidence among many of its members. How will Trump explain to his MAGA base that Putin has abandoned his peace plan and decided to simply take Ukraine? Has Zaluhnzy told him, as president and leader of the army, he has a plan which could fend off the Russian army?

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... for-putin/

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Russia records 300,000 Ukrainian losses since start of 2025

Donald Trump said earlier this week that his 50-day deadline for Moscow to reach a deal with Kiev has been shortened to ’10 or 12’ days

News Desk

AUG 1, 2025

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(Photo credit: Kyodo via AP)

Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers were killed or wounded in 2025, Russian media reported on 1 August, citing weekly Defense Ministry reports.

According to Russian news agency TASS, the Ukrainian military has suffered around 300,000 casualties since the start of the year.

The outlet noted that weekly and daily reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense indicate that Kiev lost approximately 36,000 soldiers in July, and more than 265,000 soldiers during the first six months of 2025.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had said earlier this year that Kiev lost 100,000 soldiers since 2022. According to Moscow, there were 590,000 Ukrainian military casualties in 2024 alone, and over one million since the start of the war in 2022.

The Russian Defense Ministry announced on Friday that its forces captured seven Ukrainian settlements in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR).

“Battlegroup South units kept advancing deep into the enemy’s defenses and liberated the town of Chasov Yar in the Donetsk People’s Republic … Battlegroup Center units continued offensive operations on the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Dnepropetrovsk Region. They liberated the settlements of Boikovka, Belgiyka and Novoukrainka in the Donetsk People’s Republic,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.

A third round of Turkish-hosted ceasefire talks between Moscow and Kiev earlier this month failed to yield significant progress.

The US and Russia had held talks in Saudi Arabia in March this year, agreeing to establish a path to ending the conflict.

However, US President Donald Trump recently announced that Washington will be sending “massive” supplies of weapons to Ukraine, in what was described as a significant policy shift.

He also issued a 50-day deadline for a deal to be made, after which he would impose 100 percent tariffs on Russia. Earlier this week, Trump announced plans to shorten this deadline.

“I'm going to make a new deadline of about … 10 or 12 days from today,” Trump stated during a meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland on Monday. “There's no reason in waiting ... We just don't see any progress being made.”

Ukraine and the US are engaged in detailed negotiations over a landmark agreement involving US investment in Ukraine’s domestic drone manufacturing industry, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced on 18 July.

https://thecradle.co/articles/russia-re ... rt-of-2025
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Aug 04, 2025 12:02 pm

False hopes, false dangers
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 04/08/2025

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Hiding behind the mention of the Vice President of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev—whom he makes president of the institution—in the zombies of The Walking Dead, Donald Trump, who still considers himself a president of peace, has crossed a line this weekend that was red even for the much more belligerent Joe Biden: the mobilization of nuclear submarines as another element of the escalating tension in the conflict. This increase in military, political, and economic pressure that has occurred over the last seven days, in which Donald Trump has set a date for the moment in which his strategy of incentives and threats will be applied against Moscow and some of its BRICS allies and energy sector clients. Ukraine, which has celebrated the swift imposition of top-level sanctions against Moscow and Beijing, just as it celebrated the delivery of its previous miracle weapons—the Bayraktars, Russia's disconnection from the SWIFT system, the Javelins, the HIMARS, the Patriots, the long-range missiles—is trying to balance its position between the euphoria of believing that, finally, the US intervention will achieve for kyiv what its armed forces have failed to achieve, and the need to maintain the narrative of the possibility of defeat if the West does not deliver the quantity and quality of weapons Ukraine demands.

This moment of maximum uncertainty, in which there are still not enough clues to know what steps the different actors will take once the deadline expires that Donald Trump has given Vladimir Putin to accept a ceasefire and open a negotiation process in which Russia is aware that European countries and Ukraine will not seek a resolution, is marked by exalted rhetoric, a virtually total absence of analysis, and, above all, both false hopes and false dangers.

At the forefront of these false hopes are those who see new sanctions as the ultimate weapon to defeat Russia, with Andriy Yermak, who has already proclaimed that "sanctions work," as the spearhead. However, the aura of victory that prematurely illuminates Ukraine every time it is about to receive a miracle weapon contrasts with the need to maintain the narrative of danger to ensure the continuation of military supplies. A good example of this contradiction is Kirilo Budanov, who in 2023 claimed that Russia would run out of missiles and that its troops would be in Crimea before that summer, but now warns of the possibility of a collapse of the EU and NATO, and that Russia is preparing to invade before 2030. From false hopes to false dangers is only a short step.

The subtext of this comment, evidently exaggerated and taking advantage of the fact that the discourse of this war is not required to be particularly coherent, is to highlight the importance of increased military supplies. “A new supply of air defense weapons, including US-made Patriots, drone interceptors, and light aircraft to shoot down drones, could help thwart Russian attacks,” Syrsky stressed. “An increased number of medium- and long-range missiles, including the US-made ATACMS and German Taurus systems, would allow Kiev—if distributed without restrictions on their use—to curb Russian weapons production by targeting the infrastructure that manufactures its missiles and drones,” The Washington Post wrote last week in a report on the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, whose strategy is the same as a year ago: to use Western missiles to bomb targets in the Russian Federation, something he hopes to do soon with the support of Donald Trump. This has always been Zelensky's way of pursuing peace through force , massive bombing of military industry, command posts and logistics throughout the Russian Federation to force the Kremlin to cease the war on Ukraine's terms.

“There are good chances, there are many signs that indicate that the Russo-Ukrainian war can at least be suspended in the near future,” Donald Tusk affirmed last week, along the same lines. His words have gone relatively unnoticed, perhaps due to their lack of specificity and their contradiction with the apparent escalation of the war. Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin offered three possibilities to explain this possible ceasefire: a collapse of the Pokovsk front and the subsequent domino effect; the possible departure of Zelensky, either on his own initiative or that of his foreign allies; and the possibility of secret talks away from the cameras. None of these three scenarios, nor the possibility of Russian acceptance of the imposed ceasefire, whether to avoid massive sanctions, Ukrainian bombings, or fear of coming close to a direct confrontation with the United States, are impossible, although they are unlikely.

Russian advances in Donbass are accelerating, as The Daily Telegraph openly admitted on Saturday and confirmed, albeit more subtly and without major headlines, by other media outlets. Russian troops have raised their flag in the central part of Chasov Yar, and even according to Ukrainian media, the fighting is now limited to part of one of the outlying neighborhoods. The situation is similar in Toretsk, where the battle has moved further north. The combination of these two advances complicates the situation in Konstantinovka, the next stronghold that Ukraine must defend to prevent the situation from escalating around the main urban agglomeration in the part of Donetsk under its control, Slavyansk-Kramatorsk. Added to this are the significant Russian advances in recent hours toward the city of Kupyansk and also Pokrovsk-Mirnograd, so the risk for Ukraine extends across the entire eastern front. However, the risk of collapse is limited, and Ukraine still has reserves to mobilize to prevent Russia, whose resources are not unlimited and lacks the enormous troop numbers that several media outlets predicted it would use in an offensive, from making dangerous progress toward successfully capturing all of Donbas.

Zelensky's position has been damaged by the serious mistake he made in attempting to bring under his control institutions that the West demands to be independent —that is, to serve the civil society it finances and controls. However, in this regard, too, decisions depend on Donald Trump, whose administration previously expressed interest in Ukraine holding elections, but whose position has changed significantly since Zelensky's government signed the minerals deal.

The possibility that negotiations are taking place beyond the brief Istanbul meetings is also not impossible, just as the continuation of contacts between Kyiv and Moscow well beyond the April 2022 rupture was not impossible. Away from the cameras and without any information leaking about the talks, Russia and Ukraine were, according to scholars who have examined the documents, closer to reaching a resolution to the conflict than anyone could have imagined. On Friday, in an appearance alongside Alexander Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin mentioned the need for negotiations away from the public eye and in silence. Yesterday, Volodymyr Zelensky met with Andriy Ermak and Rustem Umerov to prepare for the next sessions of the Istanbul negotiations. However, despite the apparent willingness to engage in dialogue, Russia and Ukraine's positions remain opposed on the most important aspect of this war: security, so diplomatic progress is also unlikely under the current circumstances. Russia is advancing at the front, so despite the pressure it is under, it currently has no incentive to negotiate from the position of weakness expected by kyiv and Washington, which demand full acceptance of the terms proposed by the Kellogg Roadmap. With even stronger sanctions about to come into effect against Russia and countries that have not renounced their economic relations with Moscow, and with the hope that what failed a year ago—the use of long-range missiles to subdue Moscow—might work now, kyiv has even less incentive to initiate a political dialogue in which it would have to make the concessions it refused to make three years ago.

Despite countless announcements of a Russian offensive, the dynamic has not changed, and no major advances are expected on a heavily fortified front populated by drones. Instead, the war of attrition, with which Russia hopes to undermine the capabilities of the Ukrainian army by causing more casualties, including dead, wounded, and deserters, is expected. Data released last week by well-known military activist Maria Berlinska estimated Ukraine's net losses at 26,500 available troops per month. According to her information, there are an average of 300 dead, 750 wounded, and 500 deserters per day, a total of 46,500 in a 30-day period, while she estimates recruitment at 20,000 per month. The attrition is evident, even according to Ukrainian sources. But Ukraine remains steadfast in its demand for a just peace , the euphemism used in 2024 to define a resolution in which, regardless of the results of the war, Ukraine will politically and diplomatically achieve what it demands: the recovery of its territories, progress towards NATO membership, and the perpetuation of the international pariah status of the Russian Federation, where Zelensky is now openly demanding regime change.

The past three and a half years have shown that Ukraine is capable of inflicting damage on Russia, but that it is unable to expel Russian troops from its southern territories, much less from Donbass and Crimea. To maintain its objectives, Ukraine appeals to its allies and to apply such high pressure that Russia has no choice but to yield. To this end, it hides behind false threats such as a future Russian invasion of NATO countries, a fallacious but useful argument on the continent. Another such argument is elevating a tweet to the level of a nuclear threat, an inappropriate tone considering that one of the few agreements between Russia and the United States since 2022 has been precisely to avoid a direct confrontation between the two countries. Trump, who has criticized Joe Biden for risking a confrontation with a nuclear power, is raising the bar not only with sanctions he intends to be definitive or with the possibility of sending long-range missiles into Russian territory without restrictions, but also with the element that could cause the most nervousness in the Kremlin: the nuclear issue. Moscow has likely not forgotten that there was no American condemnation or regret following the Ukrainian attack on Russian nuclear bombers, a sign of confrontation that the press, still willing to believe that Trump favors Russia, chose not to see.

Although this is not the first time, the war is heading this week toward an uncertain moment. The rhetoric of the United States and Ukraine clearly points to escalation. In a different context, the visit of Keith Kellogg to Kyiv and Steve Witkoff to Moscow could signal a new attempt to achieve negotiations between the parties. However, at least judging by his words, Trump has abandoned that possibility in favor of a scenario involving the implementation of the European ceasefire ultimatum. Stronger on the front lines and firmer in diplomacy than the United States would like, Russia remains unmoved in its determination not to give in to what it perceives as external blackmail to force an unacceptable resolution that is inconsistent with the balance of power in the war. Trump's tactic is to exploit both false hopes of success and false dangers to justify a policy of hardening the US stance toward Russia, a way to raise tensions so much that the opponent has no choice but to give in and accept the scenario that Donald Tusk seems to foreshadow. However, against an opponent as strong as Russia, a nuclear power unwilling to submit to external dictates on an existential issue such as its western border, the calculation may prove to be wrong, and the idea of escalating in order to de-escalate , as Trump did in Iran by creating a fait accompli with bombs and then ordering a ceasefire to his proxy, may simply lead to a new phase of the war's worsening.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/04/falsa ... -peligros/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Peskov said that a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is possible "after preparing a meeting at the expert level."

1. In fact, they are pushing for the start of work of expert groups that Russia proposes to create within the framework of its memorandum and which Ukraine refuses.
2. The Kremlin has previously reported that a meeting is possible for signing "an already agreed draft treaty," but the Kremlin is not interested in a meeting with Zelensky for its legitimization.

The Kremlin also commented on Trump's comments on Medvedev's posts. They reasonably pointed out that American nuclear submarines are already constantly on combat duty (as are Russian ones). In general, they did not get involved in the bloggers' squabbles.

***

Colonelcassad
Syrsky confirmed that the situation at the front is rapidly deteriorating. According to him, the heaviest fighting is taking place in the Pokrovsk, Dobropolsk and Novopavlovsk directions, where Russian troops are methodically expanding the offensive zone and attacking in several areas at once.

He described a new tactic of Russian assault groups - "total infiltration". According to him, small units are penetrating deep into the Ukrainian defense, including sabotage groups that seek to destabilize the rear and disrupt logistics.
@digest1744

***

"I am ashamed that I am Ukrainian, I am ashamed that I am from Ukraine - for my compatriots who came to Europe and behave like pigs...
Always dissatisfied, everything is wrong, the apartment is wrong, the clothes are wrong, the food is wrong, the transport is wrong. Apparently half of the people have simply lost their memory, you have forgotten how you ate buckwheat until payday"...


https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

SITREP 8/3/25: Trump's Sub Scare Can't Eclipse Ukraine's Pokrovsk Collapse
Simplicius
Aug 03, 2025

Donald Trump claims to have parked nuclear subs closer to Russia after a tiff with fellow bronzer enthusiast Dmitry Medvedev. The Pentagon appeared to downplay his comments, replying they “defer” to his statements, which is a nice way of saying: “We didn’t move any subs, but let’s just give little Donnie his venting space.” Even war-hog John Bolton had to concede the move was a charade: (Video at link.)

Of course, the act’s real motivation was Trump needing to pump himself due to insecurity about his perceived weakness and inability to move Russia an inch on the negotiations and cessation-of-hostilities front. He needed to signal his ‘strength’, though he did it in a way that signals precisely the opposite.

Trump also made waves with his statement of mind-blowing Russian casualties, claiming that Russia suffers 20k KIA per month:

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This provided ready fodder for several news cycles of the pro-UA crowd’s propaganda about massive Russian losses. It came as a much needed jolt to energize their hopes, essentially convincing them that the current frontline situation isn’t as catastrophic as it seems because Russia will eventually run out of men:

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But many top Ukrainian analysts were skeptical:

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Ukrainian figure Maria Berlinska the same day released a quite contrary list of loss figures for the AFU:

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The above is hard to read, but she writes:

Daily killed: up to 300
Wounded: up to 750
AWOL: up to 500


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In short, she writes that according to her estimates Ukraine is losing 26,500 people each month, or 318,000 per year, while Russia gains 9-10k per month and 120k per year. She estimates 159,000 per year are the hard losses for Ukraine, i.e. dead and maimed. Ukrainian figures still claim the AFU “recruits” anywhere between 15-25k men per month, so the ~26k monthly losses could be either a net loss of 10k or so, or a rough break-even, depending on your view.

Either one is lethal for Ukraine since even Zelensky himself admits Russia gains 100k+ per year in net total manpower strength. Even if Ukraine is merely equalizing its men, the manpower gap will grow wider and wider each year until Ukraine is totally overwhelmed. But of course: that’s where NATO’s secret plan to embroil Russia in another war with the Baltics or someone else comes into play, in order to tie those additional forces up. If by 2027 Russia has 300k more men than Ukraine but needs to send those men to Lithuania, then the Ukrainian front will retain parity.

As for Trump’s figures, we already know the US ‘intel community’ literally makes up numbers at this point. Thomas Massie had already told us about the comical ‘classified meetings’ where Ukrainian casualties are dismissed as ‘unknown’.

Even Budanov is starting to see the writing on the wall, here admitting that it is NATO and the EU that will likely collapse, not Russia: (Video at link.)


"Although I simply hate Mr. Surkov (former aide to the President of Russia) for everything he has brought here, I fear that this is one of the possible scenarios if everything remains as it is now," Budanov said, thereby acknowledging that even his opponents might be right.

By the way, say what you will of Budanov, but as time goes on he becomes increasingly honest and is one of the few forthright Ukrainian figures whose words should be heeded and potentially trusted. He does not simply lie at will for the benefit of the state like most of his compatriots—even when opportunity readily presents itself.

Recall, when Navalny died, he went against the grain admitting that Putin had not “killed” him in prison as was the spin by cheap MSM presstitutes. Instead, he plainly stated Navalny did actually die of a heart condition and that Russian reports on this were accurate. Similarly, he recently agreed with Putin that wherever a Russian soldier steps will remain as Russian land, and Ukraine will never get it back—electing to do away with cheap jingoistic nonsense about “returning” everything that so often consumes blind supporters.

This is why Budanov’s other statement from the new interview is even more revealing. He gives a long, meandering response to essentially sketch out the likelihood that Ukraine as a nation may soon be erased from the annals of history if events continue down the path they’re heading: (Video at link.)

That said, let’s get straight to the frontline updates as things continue to accelerate toward the natural conclusion of a few major long-fought battles.

Pokrovsk remains the main focus as Russian efforts ramp up there. Today we have geolocated footage of Russian troops calmly walking through the southern portions of the city proper, which indicates there is little resistance there anymore: (Video at link.)

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Geolocation: 48.27223, 37.15417

It’s likely that the city will be bisected in some way, with eastern portions left to be captured first.

But actually, the most pressing advances have shifted to the eastern end of the front, where Russian troops are advancing to cut off Mirnograd. Though it hasn’t been fully verified yet, latest updates show Russian forces capturing both Dorozhne and Sukhetske, which would put them one final step closer to cutting the main supply route there:

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As can be seen Novoekonomichne and areas around it were also recently captured with forces pushing in from the east. Much of this is very reminiscent of the battle of Avdeevka across the railway near Stepove and down toward the terrikon. Except as can be seen now, Russian forces are moving much faster, suffering no notable losses, and Ukraine’s resistance is no longer particularly stiff around such a key fortress town.

Analyzing from a wider view, the strategy could likely be to swing south along the road and cut Mirnograd off first in order to quickly effect its full collapse, leaving only Pokrovsk to be taken alone:

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They could even potentially link up with the group bisecting Pokrovsk to close the eventual cauldron.

The usual suspects are squealing:

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By the way, here’s an interesting perspective for those wondering what the fall of the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration really means.

Recall that Avdeevka was essentially the frontline from early or mid-2022. From that point forward, Avdeevka was slowly enveloped and fought for, with the final attempt to take it beginning on October 2023 and culminating around February 2024:

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But after that fortress fell, the entire area from Avdeevka to the Pokrovsk agglomeration took a mere eight months or so to capture. At the time, analysts wrote that after Avdeevka fell, Russia would storm through the smaller settlements and empty fields at a rapid clip, and that’s roughly what happened.

Now, the same thing applies to Pokrovsk: the area was fought for since late last year, but once it falls, the “empty” steppe from there to Pavlograd could be gobbled up in months. Granted, from Avdeevka to Pokrovsk was about 40km and from Pokrovsk to Pavlograd is about double that—but at the same time, the AFU can be said to be doubly weak compared to back then, and are losing territory at a much faster pace.

In fact, WSJ just did a piece on an unprecedented line of defenses Ukraine is hurriedly attempting to construct behind this frontline as bulwark against precisely this future advance:

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https://archive.ph/yplbU
But even WSJ was not hot on the ambitious project’s prospects:

…fortifications the country bets it can lay fast and far enough to halt Russia’s summer offensive. But the defensive gamble is facing increasingly long odds.

Well into its second year, the wider front-line program has been beset by delays, attacks and arrests for alleged corruption. It now faces being overrun by the enemy it is trying to repel.


In a clumsy attempt to follow editorial guidance to downplay Russian gains, the article strikes a hilarious contradiction:

The challenge is to hold back a Russian army bolstered by thousands of fresh recruits whom Moscow is throwing into battle for only small or symbolic gains. Ukraine’s understaffed units are struggling to defend against the onslaught as Russia shifts tactics daily and slowly chews through territory.

So, these “small” and “symbolic” gains are necessitating the most gargantuan—by WSJ’s own account—defensive fortification project of the entire war? What’s the point of embarrassing and discrediting oneself like this? If Ukraine is rushing to create vast trenchworks, it’s clearly for a reason.

The article notes Ukraine spent 2% of their entire 2024 military budget on just these fortifications, and the 2025 budget is even bigger.

Up next, Russian forces made major headway on the Krasny Liman front, stabbing out and capturing the southern portion of Torske:

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Again we have geolocated footage of a flag-raise by the Russian 36th Motor Rifle Regiment of the 25th CAA: (Video at link.)

02.08.25 Krasny Liman - Torskoe

Consequences of combat operations in the Krasny Liman area.

Russian Armed Forces servicemen raise the flag of the Russian Federation in the southern part of Torskoe, confirming confident control of the occupied part of the settlement by the Russian Armed Forces.

Advancement of the Russian Armed Forces more than 2.5 km through residential buildings in Torskoe.

Geo: 48.98944, 37.97611


The significance of this is that Russian forces are approaching Krasny Liman ever closer—and Liman is the final main fortress gateway to Slavyansk:

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Just north of there Russian forces have also advanced southward:

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On a neighboring front, we have a correction to make. In the last report I posted an AFU video claiming to have destroyed a clumsy Russian advance on the Seversk front. In fact, it turns out that Russian armor assault succeeded, because today we’ve had confirmation of Russian position consolidations just outside Seversk:

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A final thing of interest: a reported Russian Fab-3000 bomb struck the Kherson Ostrovska bridge: (Video at link.)

Besides the highly improved accuracy of the bomb, we must say the event showed why bridges—at least Soviet ones—are so difficult to take out:
(Video at link.)

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Most interesting however is the fact that this is the only bridge connecting the entire isolated district to mainland Kherson, which means Russian forces will completely lock it out if and when they finish the bridge off.

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What this could mean is that Russian forces may be gearing up to begin the piecemeal conquest of Kherson. Recall last time the Ukrainian officer’s words that the way things are going on that sector, Russia could end up storming the right bank, given that Ukraine’s losses are mounting there and there are continued reports that Russian drone teams are effectively locking out Ukrainian units with constant strikes.

Read below from a Ukrainian community leader in Kherson:

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(More at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... scare-cant

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Ukrainian Statehood Pitted Against the Citizens of the Country
August 2, 2025

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Ukrainians have a cautionary term for what is taking place today in their country, 'Don't dig a hole for someone else, or you'll fall into it yourself.' Photo: Zeinab el-Hajj/Al Mayadeen.

By Dmitri Kovalevich – Jul 30, 2025

Dmitri Kovalevich argues that modern Ukrainian statehood has turned against its own people, suppressing dissent, provoking wider war, and surviving only through coercion, Western backing, and public relations.

On July 15, Ukraine celebrated its Day of Ukrainian Statehood established in 2023 by the administration in Kiev, then headed (as now) by Volodomyr Zelensky. On August 24, Ukraine will mark its ‘day of independence’, the date of its secession from the Soviet Union (USSR) in 1991. These two dates mark the statehood and independence of the post-Soviet Ukrainian state in 1991. However, at the time of the demise of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was already independent and sovereign, with its own seat at the United Nations General Assembly separate from the representation of the Soviet Union as a whole. This was Soviet Ukraine (the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic).

What the two dates in 1991 mark is something resembling an Ireland deciding to depart the European Union (as did the UK government on January 31, 2020) and then declaring that date to be its date of statehood and independence.

The 1991 Declaration of Independence of Ukraine laid the foundation for post-Soviet Ukraine’s international recognition. It states that all nationalities within its border are guaranteed free national and cultural development. Most importantly, it says that Ukraine promises to become permanently neutral, not participating in military blocs, and renouncing the possession of nuclear weapons.

“Modern Ukraine is an absolute antithesis to what was originally stated in its declaration of independence and then its constitution. All its problems have arisen because of its acute unwillingness to do what was promised in 1991 to the people and to the world,” writes Ukrainian author Miroslava Berdnik.

If all the original, declared goals of the Ukraine founded in 1991 had been observed, at least formally, then secession by entire regions following the Maidan coup of February 2014, as well as the current war with Russia, would not have taken place. But the examples of Ukraine and many of the former republics of the USSR show that their declared goals have not been observed. In the case of Ukraine, democratic norms have served merely as smokescreens to obscure the gradual colonization of the country by Western imperialist countries.

Risk of wider war and nuclear weapons
In order to preserve its pro-Western statehood, Ukraine is provoking events that risk war between the nuclear powers of Europe and the USA, on the one hand, and the Russian Federation on the other.

Euromaidan activist and Ukrainian journalist Vitaliy Portnikov has written about this in particular. He has voiced hope that Donald Trump’s administration in Washington will gift long-range weapons to Ukraine and demand that it uses them to strike Moscow and other major cities of Russia.

“Could the present war lead to a nuclear strike by Russia against Ukraine? Yes, it could. In that case, Trump could then go to war directly with Russia. That doesn’t mean a World War III would start in 50 days, but the speed at which we are approaching such a scenario is definitely increasing. And yes, such a war is one of the possible scenarios for preserving Ukrainian statehood, because in the event of a global conflagration, it will be easier for geographically peripheral countries such as ours to survive.”

Ukrainian legislator Oleksandr Dubinsky, a former associate of Zelensky, currently in prison facing accusations of treason, believes that Zelensky’s regime is holding out the possibility of nuclear weapons being used against Russia by Kiev’s Western patrons. “The goal of Zelensky, his lobbyists in the EU, and a part of Trump’s entourage is to achieve either the ouster of Putin or to unleash nuclear weapons,” the Ukrainian legislator writes.

Dubinsky writes that supporters of such a scenario are also considering a possible course by the Russian Federation in which it moves to implement general military conscription and considers a nuclear missile strike against Ukraine. He believes that Ukraine is now a ‘bait’ state, resembling a sheep tied to a tree in order to lure a wolf for killing or capture. In his opinion, no one in the West truly cares about the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, nor the potential devastation of the country in an escalating war. The West wants conditions that justify continued, tough economic sanctions against the Russian Federation and the stoking of internal instability.

Simply put, the position in which the steadily retreating Ukrainian army finds itself is such that the only remaining option for Zelensky is to drag major Western countries into the conflict, dreaming of a nuclear war in which both sides destroy each other and a Zelensky-led Ukraine would survive standing.

The Ukrainian state issuing from the 2014 coup
Ukrainian statehood, as it is seen by Western countries and by the administration of the unelected Zelensky (whose electoral mandate expired in April 2024), is an enemy of the Ukrainian citizenry. The Ukrainian state, as presently constitute,d is prepared to see the country destroyed in every possible way if that be the price for this state’s own preservation. It acts as a parasite, feeding on its victim’s body until it dies, following which the parasite itself dies.

The ‘modern’ (post-Soviet) state of Ukraine sent its army to suppress the rebellious people of the Donbass region (Donetsk and Lugansk republics) following the illegal coup in Kiev in February 2014. This was a direct violation of the Ukraine constitution which prohibits the use of the Ukraine army against its own citizens. Article 17 of the Ukraine Constitution reads, “The Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military formations shall not be used by anyone to restrict the rights and freedoms of citizens or with the intent to overthrow the constitutional order, subvert the bodies of power or obstruct their activity.”

The post-coup government in Kiev was prevented from invading Crimea in early 2014 thanks to the decisive actions of the then-government of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (ARC), the only such region of Ukraine with a constitutionally recognized autonomous government. The people of Donbass did not have such autonomy nor a comparable government to which they could turn for protection. The ARC government held a referendum vote on March 15, 2014, asking whether the population wished to remain under Ukrainian rule or join the Russian Federation. The government also appealed to the Russian Federation for military protection; as it happened, Russian armed forces were already present in Crimea according to the terms of the 1997 friendship treaty between post-Soviet Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

The referendum outcome was overwhelmingly in favor of affiliation with the Russian Federation. The outcome also addressed the longstanding demand by most people in Crimea to undo the arbitrary, administrative decision by the Soviet Union in 1954 to ‘attach’ Crimea to Ukraine. Crimea was a majority-Russian entity for several centuries prior, with a significant Crimean Tatar population whose language and cultural rights were never formally recognized or protected during Ukrainian rule and today are one of the three, officially recognized languages of Crimea, namely Russian, Crimea Tatar, and Ukrainian.

The state of Ukraine today continues to wage civil war against those of its population who opposed the 2014 coup and wished to maintain friendly and cooperative relations with Russia. The constitutional illegality of Kiev’s civil war in Donbass, which continues to this day, was reported and analyzed here six years ago in the Russia-based publication Baltnews.

Analysts believe Ukraine doomed to defeat
Oleksiy Arestovich, a former adviser to the Office of the President and one of Zelensky’s backers until 2023, living today in exile in Europe, argues that this present-day Ukrainian state is doomed to defeat, no matter what assistance the United States and other NATO countries provide. He says there are fewer and fewer people in Ukraine willing to defend the official, far-right, ultra-nationalist ideology of this state.

Arestovich recalls that in 1918, Kiev was taken by relatively few detachments of the Red Guards as led by the renegade Russian military officer Mikhael Muravyov, while entire regiments of soldiers under the command of pro-German and pro-Western officers refused orders to fight the Red Guards. “They didn’t go into battle,” writes Arestovich, “even though they could have crushed the Bolshevik Red Guards. The idea [of pro-Western Ukrainian nationalism] did not inspire them,” He regrets that such officers were inspired by a very different idea, a Ukrainian nationalism willing to subordinate the future country to the very Western imperialist powers that had created the WW1 cataclysm.

In the opinion of Arestovich, the six million Ukrainian men eligible for military service who have not served in the Ukrainian Armed Forces to date, living in clandestine conditions to avoid military recruiters, are behaving in a similar way 100 years later. He says that the right-wing Ukrainian nationalism of today – the official ideology of the country – does not inspire Ukrainian men to sign up for war, or no longer does so.

This former adviser to Zelensky is today certain that, “If the Americans were to hand over the entirety of their military arsenal to the regime in Kiev, the regime’s military would still fail sooner or later due to the shortage of infantry. A Nestor Makhno [anarchist leader during the war against imperialist intervention following the 1917 Revolution] or a Joseph Stalin would still defeat Bandera-inspired nationalism, and this for a third time in 100 years.”

A modern Ukrainian state and society dominated by far-right ideology cannot exist or survive, because 100 years of history show that the majority of the Ukrainian population does not support it. A far-right Ukraine survives only thanks to state violence and state suppression of progressive political and social alternatives.

In a supreme irony, Arestovich is himself a former activist of the neo-Nazi Brotherhood party, founded in 2004.

Arestovich believes that the governing administration in Kiev is only competent on matters of public relations and promoting its image to naïve and gullible Western audiences. It has staked its survival on media outreach and public relations warfare to pressure Western audiences and governments into supporting it by any and all means. He also argues that in contrast, Russia uses rationality and strong will to ‘roll on’ militarily and politically. “There is no stopping Russia by using sanctions against it. The Russian roller-compactor is rolling over ultra-nationalist Ukraine and will continue to do so. Long-term trends during conflict and warfare are decided by the level of organization of the state and its ability to play the long game,” Arestovich explains with more than a hint of regret.

Desertions are rising each month from the Ukrainian army, according to Ukrainian journalist Volodymyr Boyko. He reports that during the first half of 2025, according to official data, 107,672 new criminal proceedings were registered for unauthorized abandonment of military units (desertion). That is an astounding monthly average so far in 2025 of nearly 18,000 desertions. This also amounts to a crushing burden of new criminal cases for a battered Ukraine state to process.

Boyko believes the real situation to be even worse, as many cases of desertion are simply not registered. He explains that in 2025, deserters are no longer removed from the personnel lists of military units, in order to maintain illusions that units are ‘fully staffed’. What’s more, the deserters’ salaries continue to be paid and collected… by former commanders in one form or another. “As a result, there is no infantry in the Armed Forces of Ukraine today. None at all. The infantry is either on the run, in hospitals, or buried in cemeteries,” Boyko writes. According to his calculations, “realistically, there are between 30,000 and 50,000 servicemen, mostly drone operators, along the lines of contact on the Ukrainian side.”

Stanislav Bunyatov, a leader of the neo-Nazi ‘Aidar paramilitary battalion’, writes that a great many of the forcibly conscripted are choosing not to fight once transported to the front lines. “Most brigades today have demotivated personnel. If you don’t kill a Russian with a drone, he will advance because Ukrainian soldiers are demotivated and, in most case,s are not willing to fight. I’m talking about our soldiers. This is understandable because there are some brigades staffed largely or exclusively by the ‘busified’. These people will not stand to the last man and there is no longer enough leadership to force them to do so. Everyone understands that soldiers are there to stand and mark the front lines, that is all,” Bunyatov writes.

(‘Busification’ («бусифікація in Ukrainian) and its derivatives are new terms introduced into the Ukrainian language in recent years. The terms describe the grim process of herding forcibly conscripted men into buses (minibuses) to be transported to training grounds and then to the military front lines. In 2024, the Myslovo Dictionary of Modern Ukrainian Language and Slang declared the word ‘busification’ to be ‘word of the year’ in Ukraine.)

In other words, soldiers are needed on the front lines under fire in order that Zelensky can claim to the political and military conferences of the Western powers, which he regularly attends, that the Ukrainian armed forces are ‘holding the front lines’.

Conscription violence… and counter-violence
In July, the Commissioner for Human Rights of the Council of Europe criticized Ukraine for human rights violations of its conscription regime, citing a report published on July 8 by Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubynts (appointed in June 2022). The ombudsman’s report says that “human rights violations by Ukrainian officials carrying out military conscription have become systematic and widespread,” including “physical violence such as beatings, cruel detentions, denial of access to legal counsel, detentions incommunicado, conscription of persons with disabilities, and other unacceptable actions.” The EU commissioner recommends that European human rights defenders be given access to Ukraine’s conscripted soldiers to help prevent abuses.

Only the cases where EU citizens are killed or injured during military conscription in Ukraine may cause resonance in Western Europe. For example, a dual citizen of Hungary and Ukraine, József Sebestyén, was beaten to death in mid-July for resisting military recruiters in Ukraine’s Transcarpathia region, sparking protests in Budapest. But the government of Hungary is considered a ‘black sheep’ of the European Union, and so the murder of a Hungarian at the hands of Ukrainian military recruiters does not cause the same stir in the warmaking halls of power of the European Union compared to the death of a citizen of France, Germany, or Britain. (Ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine numbered 156,600 according to the Ukrainian census of 2001, the last census to take place in the country, making them the third largest national minority in the country, much of this dating back to the changing borders of Eastern Europe during the late 1930s and following World War II.)

Ukrainian political scientist Kost Bondarenko notes that resistance to military recruiters in Ukraine is definitely on the rise. “Look, there now is a reassessment of values taking place in many cities of Ukraine. The case of the unfortunate dual citizen is far from the first case. There are so many cases where people are refusing to obey a call-up to military service.” He writes of a recent attack by a group of teenagers in the city of Dnipro against military recruiters. The teenagers managed to fight off the recruiters and rescue a man they had detained.

Another phenomenon taking place sees the forcibly conscripted in Ukraine turning their guns against their own officers or Western instructors. In some cases, these are conscripted Ukrainians who have maintained their sympathies with Russia during the turbulent years since the 2014 coup, while other such cases are apolitical Ukrainians who were victims of torture or violence as they were seized and shipped off to the front lines.

In the Chernihiv region of Ukraine, media has reported of a conscripted man who killed several of his training sergeants on July 16. The conscripted man had resisted serving in the army, but he was seized and was being trained to take up arms. He turned a machine gun against his military trainers.

Once conscripted men are in the trenches, internal conflict among the troops often begins. Ukrainian nationalists are panicking over such news, claiming that “the Russians are not only in front of us but also among us.” According to reports, Russian soldiers are increasingly facing little resistance when they advance, oftentimes finding casualties and traces of fratricidal conflict in the Ukrainian trenches they overrun.

In mid-July, German citizens were able to view in a Telegram message video footage of a violent conscription confrontation in Ukraine. The message as broadcast on Telegram was headlined ‘How German viewers react to ‘busification’ in Ukraine’ and contained the written comment ‘This is definitely not Ukraine; maybe China or North Korea? It’s inhumane.’

Germans were shocked by the video, and many were misled into believing that this was taking place in some foreign land such as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. This underlines once again how easy it is to brainwash so many EU citizens when it comes to Ukraine. Such people no doubt consider their own countries to be ‘bastions of freedom’ and Ukraine to be a ‘democracy’. But nothing resembling the events of today in Ukraine is taking place in the DPRK or in China. Such things can only happen in a country that is a vassal and willing tool of Western imperialism.

Many Ukrainian ultra-nationalists using social networks are gloating at the prospect of the citizens of Western countries – those who have cheered ‘democracy’ in Ukraine and attended rallies against ‘Russian imperialism’ while waving Ukrainian flags – will sooner or later feel the terror of forced conscription themselves. This will happen when the supply of Ukrainian soldiers, whom the West is happy to throw under the ‘steamroller’ of the Russian army, runs out, and Western leaders are obliged to turn to their own human resources to maintain their murderous, global domination. That is when the Western populations may begin to open their eyes and face the consequences of their ignorance or worse during the coup of 2014 and its continued aftermath. They may then begin to understand the inevitable but gradual and patient response by the Russian Federation to the escalating aggression by the Ukrainian state and the Western imperialist states.

Ukrainians have a cautionary term for what is taking place today in their country, namely ‘не рой другому яму – сам в нее попадешь’, meaning ‘Don’t dig a hole for someone else, or you’ll fall into it yourself.’

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(For background of the political evolution of Ukrainian nationalism during the 20th century, see this past essay by Dmitri Kovalevich, published in Covert Action Magazine in October 2022 and titled “Ukrainian nationalists have long history of anti-Jewish violence, which the Soviet Union opposed.”

(Al Mayadeen – English)

https://orinocotribune.com/ukrainian-st ... e-country/

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George corroborates this Ochakov raid by Russian special forces and taking three British senior officers (one MI6) who, as UK explained, were visiting as "tourists".



Do not forget that our Troika from now famous, or rather infamous, compendium of the American military incompetence stated :

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Of course, no US green beret experienced anything even remotely similar to SMO, but never mind, our US Army colonels continue to believe that Russians "learned" from the US Army.

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Correct, they learned, alright--how not to fight, so did ukrops, even. But yeah, sure, "operations" in Iraq, good Lord. Get into your own (lower) league of warfare. Remember 2023?

Ukraine’s army has for now set aside U.S. fighting methods and reverted to tactics it knows best. ... Ukraine’s decision to change tactics is a clear signal that NATO’s hopes for large advances made by Ukrainian formations armed with new weapons, new training and an injection of artillery ammunition have failed to materialize, at least for now.

Somebody has to explain to these Colonels that the US Army has ZERO experience in fighting real wars. And that's the sad reality of the Army which learned, as always, absolutely nothing because it cannot face the fact of it not being in the same league. It never was. In fact, I doubt they even understand what did hit them. Yes, I know how Gerasimov was "impressed", LOL))

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/08/tourists.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Aug 05, 2025 11:55 am

The week of the ultimatum
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 05/08/2025

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The ultimatum week began yesterday with a clear question to Donald Trump: “Is there anything Russia can do to avoid sanctions?” However, for Ukraine, more focused on using the anecdote to divert attention from the situation on the front line, the truly important question is where Medvedev is . “The concept of peace through strength works. The moment the American nuclear submarines appeared, a drunken Russian, who had just threatened a nuclear war in X, suddenly fell silent. Russia only understands one thing: strength,” the always exultant head of the President’s Office wrote yesterday morning. Apparently, peace means that Dmitry Medvedev has received some kind of warning and has stopped posting on social media for a few days. In this war, where the information battle seems as important for Ukraine as the real one, any issue, no matter how small, is likely to become an issue capable of changing the course of events. This has been demonstrated by Donald Trump's actions, who, in the purest style of the spectacle surrounding his administration and his family, has mobilized nuclear submarines against two posts on social media.

The episode highlights the importance of these new media outlets that leaders, officials, and governments use to deliver their message and recalls that, during his first administration, when Donald Trump's direct, often rude, and generally exalted style of posts surprised allies and opponents alike, the Russian government clarified that it considered any post by the president to be official White House policy, so it was predictable that the Kremlin would take a nuclear warning seriously. However, as one expert quoted by Reuters stated , nuclear submarines, which are part of the nuclear triad, "are always in position and ready to launch nuclear-capable missiles at targets in Russia." In other words, Trump's statements merely serve as a reminder of a reality that is not temporary, but permanent.

Even so, the Medvedev issue has also been a topic of conversation in the Russian media. Asked whether the former president has received a warning from the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted that in every country—the United States, EU members, or Russia—there are different points of view, some of them more radical. Implying that the Russian authorities place Dmitry Medvedev in that position, Peskov recalled that foreign policy is determined by the presidency. In other words, the Russian Federation's position is not that of Dmitry Medvedev, whose ability to influence the development or implementation of foreign policies is zero, but that of Vladimir Putin. However, it is clear that the current Vice President of the Security Council has received two warnings, the first when he had to clarify that his comment about the existence of countries willing to send nuclear weapons to Iran did not refer to Russia—but possibly to Pakistan and/or the People's Republic of Korea—and the second in recent days. Nothing unnerves Russia more than nuclear rhetoric. And despite Trump's exaggerated statements, which have sought to see a nuclear threat where none existed, the Kremlin has seen the need to tone down the rhetoric and seek to keep the lines of communication open with the United States, something especially important during this week of threats, but also of possibilities.

As Donald Trump confirmed yesterday, Steve Witkoff, the White House envoy for the Middle East and Russia, will visit Moscow on Wednesday or Thursday, that is, 24 to 48 hours before Washington's ultimatum expires requiring Moscow to accept the Trumpist path to something Donald Trump can call peace. "I know Steve. He's a very talented diplomat. Obviously, he's going there to give an ultimatum. And that ultimatum will be: an immediate ceasefire must be reached. The time has come. We need to stop the killing. We expect the significant high-tech, first-class weapons we sell to our European allies to be used on the front lines in Ukraine and have a significant impact. But ultimately, I repeat: we need to stop the killing. That's the most important thing," said Matthew Whitaker in an interview with Fox News , which this week will make a significant effort to exaggerate the danger in the hopes of further enhancing the diplomatic capabilities of Trumpism.

Despite the apparent contradiction in the US ambassador to NATO's statement that "we need to stop the war, so we will send even more weapons to Ukraine," the approach is consistent with the tactics followed by Donald Trump in recent months, not only in Ukraine but in his foreign policy in general. Peace through strength does not only mean threatening to deploy nuclear submarines, which are always deployed, but also warning of the de facto closure of the US market to those who do not stop trading with Russia, or warning of the US judicial system's intention to prosecute an attempted coup, and bombing a country when it refuses to accept surrender so that Washington can label it an agreement. In the case of Ukraine, this tactic was known even before Donald Trump came to the White House: sending more weapons to Kiev as punishment for Russia if Moscow refused to negotiate is the basis of the Kellogg-Fleitz plan published more than a year ago.

Just as Ukraine has twisted the definition of the word "peace" to make it equate with victory, Trumpism understands the word "negotiate" or its variants—"return to the negotiating table"—as accepting the terms of negotiation kindly presented by Washington. Only in this way can one understand the demand to negotiate with Iran, which was at the negotiating table and willing to present compromise proposals to the United States when the military attack began, first by Israel and then by the United States. Something similar, although without a direct military attack, to which Russia would have more capacity than Iran to respond, occurs in the case of Russia, a negotiation in which Trump has no interest in details or direct talks between the warring parties, but rather in the acceptance of terms he considers non-negotiable. Trump's peace is the same as the one he claims he and only he achieved between India and Pakistan, a ceasefire that left things as they were without any progress toward resolving the conflict. Hence, the answer to what Moscow can do to avoid the sanctions Trump is preparing this week against Russia and its allies is simply to accept what is being offered: a ceasefire after which, without the slightest interest from the US president, the two countries can divide the territory while European countries plan NATO's armed mission camouflaged under their national flags.

Aware that this is the roadmap Keith Kellogg intends to impose, with Ukraine's acceptance and the joy of European capitals, which see the perpetuation of the conflict rather than its definitive resolution as a partial victory compared to the strategic defeat that peace under the conditions set by the front would represent, Russia has tried to resist any step that might open the possibility of that path. Last week, when the date of the ultimatum was already known, Vladimir Putin stated that disappointment is usually the result of exaggerated expectations, something that has been constantly repeated in the case of Trump and his naiveté regarding how simple it would be to resolve the conflict, which he currently only aspires to halt in order to claim a victory that is at least temporary.

Witkoff's visit to Russia, apparently requested by the Kremlin, which is forced to offer something substantial to Washington to avoid a sharp increase in economic pressure against its allies and military pressure against them, is both a warning of the danger posed by the United States and an opportunity to buy time, something increasingly complicated given that Donald Trump has already blamed Russia for the lack of negotiations on the terms dictated by the White House. Hence, several media outlets saw Dmitry Peskov's remarks about the possibility of a meeting between Putin and Zelensky as an opening to the American path to peace . "I would like to remind you that the president does not rule out the possibility of holding such a meeting," said the Kremlin spokesman, who added that it could take place "only after the necessary work has been done at the expert level and the appropriate distance has been overcome."

Peskov's statements are explicit enough to suggest that nothing has changed and that Russia's intention is for the meeting of presidents to be the culmination of the work done by the negotiating delegations in moving toward a closer relationship, which currently seems impossible. However, everything will depend on the terms Witkoff presents to President Putin on Wednesday or Thursday and, above all, on the Russian Federation's assessment of the risks involved in accepting Donald Trump's bluff, continuing with plans as outlined, and thus assuming the loss of the only mediator who, despite everything, has been the one who, through inducements and threats, has succeeded in getting the parties to meet face-to-face for the first time in three years.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/05/la-se ... ultimatum/

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – August 4th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Aug 04, 2025
Increased activity on the Seversk axis:

In our previous report dated 30.07.2025, we detailed developments on the Izyum axis where the Russian Armed Forces are preparing operations to eliminate the Borovaya salient. In early August, new reports indicate activity has shifted to adjacent areas southward, near the village of Novoselovka, southeast of Seversk.

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Forward detachments of the RF have entered Novoselovka and commenced clearing operations. This development creates pressure on a new sector, compelling Ukrainian command to respond by maneuvering forces to prevent potential encirclement of Seversk from the south. Such redeployment requires rapid allocation of forces - meaning they must be drawn from adjacent sectors. But which ones?

The northern Izyum axis would be too dangerous to weaken. The southern Konstantinovka axis presents even greater risks...

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The Ukrainian fortified area of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka-Konstantinovka constitutes a complex, well-prepared defensive network with interconnected fortifications. (Druzhkovka is spelled "Дружкiвка" on the map. It is south of Kramatorsk.) This zone serves as a critical logistical hub for Armed Forces of Ukraine, containing stockpiles of weapons, ammunition, and other materiel. Neutralizing this "spider's nest" will require methodical isolation through interdiction of supply routes and lines of communication.

Preparatory conditions for these operations are currently being established.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... august-4th

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Ukraine Update
Roger Boyd
Aug 03, 2025

The Russian army keeps grinding forward as it studiously works on creating one Ukrainian pocket after another:

Kupyansk

Taking Kupyansk to cut off the Ukrainian troops east of the Oskol between Kupyansk and Kolisnykivka (about 14km).

Taking Lozove to cut off the Ukrainian troops east of the Oskol between Lozove and Bohuslavka (about 17km), with only the bridge at Horokhovatka left to supply them; a bridge that will be destroyed any time it becomes functional

Connecting the Russian troops in Kupyansk, Vovchans’k, and Mylove cutting off all positions contained by Kupyansk, Prymorske and Vovchans’k

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This area has remained the one with the slowest progress with the Russian forces seemingly much more grouped to the south, while the Ukrainians are more focused on stopping advances in the north. But recently this seems to have changed with the Russian forces entering both Moskovka (to the north west of Kupyansk, cutting off the rail supply line) and the northern part of Kupyansk itself. Ukrainian logistics through Kupyansk have already been severely reduced by Russian drones and artillery.

The Russians can advance south through Moskovka to Sobolivka to cut off the P07 main road supply route; which would fundamentally change the dynamics of this area. They can also storm the city directly, now that they have entered it, from the north. Given the criticality of Kupyansk to the Ukrainians, we should expect a slow storming of the city which may take weeks.

The fall of Kupyansk would cut off the Ukrainian troops east of the Oskol in a northern pocket which would then be collapsed. This would allow the Russian forces to be much better concentrated for a drive westwards from Kupyansk and southwards toward Kruhlyakivka to Borova, Lozova (the drive from the east toward Lozova has been stalled by the Ukrainians) and Izyum. The progress in Vovchansk and Milove has been very slow, especially in the former.


Siversk

Take Lyman and/or Yampil to cut off all of the supply routes to Siversk

Take Siversk to collapse the front that is centred on it

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North of Siversk

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As with the Kupyansk area, progress has been very slow as the Ukrainians have the advantage of deep fortifications and a focus on defending the territory in the north and middle of the front (opposite Slovyansk and Kramatorsk).

Most recently, Russia has been making progress to the north east of Siversk. Entering Serebrianka and advancing in the forest to the north of the same name, and more directly toward the north eastern quadrant of Siversk itself; within 1 km of the town. The Russian forces are also within 6 km of Lyman, and are in the process of fully taking Tors’ke which will put them within 2 km of Yampil. The taking of any of Lyman, Yampil or Siversk would create much greater fluidity in an area that has been akin to WW1 for a couple of years.


Kostyantynivka / Kramatorsk / Solvyansk

Advance northwards to the west of Kostyantynivka to Osykove to cut the H20 (envelopment from south west)

Advance west from the north of Chasiv Yar to Maiske & Markove, then flank the deep emplacements by advancing to Osykove and Druzhkivka to cut the H20 (envelopment from north east)

Close the pocket between Toretsk and Yablunivka MOSTLY DONE

Take the area between Dachne (northeast of Toretsk) and Predtechyne (east of Kostyantynivka) as that will enclose a heavily fortified area and threaten Kostyantynivka from the east and south east. It would also bring the T0516, that supplies the Ukrainian troops between Kostyantynivka and Kleban-Byk, under Russian fire control.

Move north from above pocket toward the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and storm the town.

Advance to the west of Kramatorsk to sever the supply lines between it and everything to the west (T0514 and T0510), which will greatly aid a northwards advance from the Pokrovsk area.

Take Izyum to then completely cut off the Kramatorsk/Slovyansk agglomeration from the north

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Popiv Yar and Poltavka taken, Russian troops at the outskirts of Rusyn Yar. After those taken time to move on to Stepanivka, then Dovha Balka, Illinivka before moving northwards to Osykove to cut the H20 north of Kostyantynivka (envelopment from south west). The Russians are also in the outskirts of Volodymyrivka further to the west, the taking of which will open up Shakhove to assault and provide a more westward route for flanking Kostyantynivka.

Chasiv Yar is now under full Russian control, facilitating the taking of Maiske and Markova to the north east of the city. From this strong position, the Russians can move eastwards to Viroliubivka, Fedorivka, Bilokuzmynivka and Stinky then to the H20 (envelopment from north east); outflanking the deep defensive lines directly to the west of Chasiv Yar.

The pocket between Toretsk and Yablunivka and the Kleban-Bykske reservoir has now been nearly completely closed and cleared, together with ground taken north east of Toretsk and ground north and north west of Yablunivka. Bila Hora has also been taken opening the way up to Oleksandro-Shul’tyne and Predtechyne. If the T0516 is cut the Russians can advance north from Toretsk. Only when the H20 is cut will the Russian advance from Yablunivka to Kosyantynivka. The Ukrainian emplacements are just too dense to be forced through before their supply lines have been cut.

The hardest part will be the taking of Izyum given the Ukrainian focus on the northern fronts, and the obvious strategic disaster that the loss of Izyum would be for the Ukrainians. Perhaps after a couple of more months of depleting the Ukrainian army, its logistics chains and its economic infrastructure, it may be time for the Russians to launch an overwhelming offensive in this area to cover the 20km to Izyum. Especially if the Ukrainians are forced to redirect forces toward Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk and Pokrovs’ke (see below), and perhaps after the taking of Lyman, Yampil and Siversk.


Pokrovsk

Attack on the northeastern flank, taking Razine and advancing to outskirts of Myrnohrad: DONE

Cut the northern supply roads roads between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka: UNDER RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL

Advance to Hryshyne on the high ground north west of Pokrovsk, cut the last supply road of the E50: NOT REQUIRED AS DEFENCES ARE COLLAPSING

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North of Pokrovsk

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Large advances made to the north/north east of Pokrovsk, to all intents and purposes cutting off the northern supply routes and greatly stretching the Ukrainian defenders. The front to the east of the city is now starting to give way (Novoekonomichne taken), and the Russian army has also entered Pokrovsk from the south. Fighting is now taking place in the south and centre of the city, with the taking of the south eastern “citadel” area of the Shakhtarskyi district being required to subdue the Ukrainian defenders. The storming of the city may take some weeks, but will then break open this area of the front.

A fall of the Pokrovsk agglomeration could well lead to accelerated Russian advances into an operational space with few emplacements and only relatively small towns. The morale of the Ukrainian army would have been severely reduced, and its logistics significantly impacted. Russia will have the Pokrovsk area as an important staging and supply area for ongoing offensives.


The Southern Front

Take Pokrovs’ke to cut the T0401 from the north

Take Hulyaipole to cut the T0401 from the south

Take Novomykolaivka to cut the T0408 from the north

Take Orikhiv to cut the T0408 from the south

Advance to the south and west of Zaporizhzhia to cut the T0803 and N15 from the west

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Russian troops at the outskirts of Andriivka-Klevtsove and Oleksandrohad (Alexandrograd on the map), which are both 14km from Pokrovs’ke. Making good progress, with the next town half way there being Velykomykhailivka. Novopavlovka being flanked to the south.

Malynivka taken, breaching the southern defence line 10km east of Hulyaipole. Fighting taking place in Mala Tokmachka, 5km from Orikhiv. Kamyanske taken, moving north to Stephohirs’k (less than 15km from Zaprorizhzhia).

Russia making very good progress driving westwards from the general Komar area, but any drive northwards on the southern front faces off against embedded Ukrainian emplacements and very motivated defenders. Better to flank the defences by continuing to drive westwards. The taking of Hulyaipole and Orikhiv, and any advances beyond Kamyanske are proving to be a painfully slow process.


Within these pockets that are being created by the Russian military are the last major emplacements of the Ukrainian defensive lines, created over many years or even a decade. Also, the remaining major industrial areas of the Donbass not yet in Russian hands. The major city of Zaporizhzhia, the capital of the Russian oblast of that name, would then be open for the taking. As well as the city of Kharkov which gives its name to the oblast that surrounds it. While Sumy, of the Sumy oblast seems to be an area that just keeps on sucking in Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine running out of men and material

All the while, the Ukrainian army is, and will be, experiencing at least 40,000 casualties a month with little prospect of replacement; the Ukrainian army will be continuously shrinking in manpower. It already seems to have reached a critical manpower shortage point in major sections of the front line, exacerbated by the continuous movement of men and material to protect Sumy.

As last year progressed, the Ukrainian casualty rate kept escalating; with a peak of 90,000 per month in the fall months. This seems to have lead to a fundamental undermining of the Ukrainian army, through both a sheer reduction in numbers and the deaths and severe injuries of so many of the experienced soldiers. In addition, those experienced soldiers that are left have been fighting continuously for three plus years with little leave. Their combat effectiveness and morale will be severely depleted.

The Russian military is trying to reduce the supply of new Ukrainian recruits, even as the pool of available men is depleted; in both numbers and those that the press gangs are able to kidnap. The future supply is even being reduced as Ukrainian parents take their teenage children out of the country, shown by a significant fall in those graduating school and high school. Russian drone attacks upon the Territorial Recruitment Centre (TCC) offices, out of which the Ukrainian military press gangs operate, are becoming more and more common.



Ukraine is now so short of men at the front that its state and media are ramping up positive propaganda about women joining the military. The effects of this manpower shortage do seem to be getting felt at the front, as Russian gains increase and 5km breakthroughs become more regular; especially in the Kostyantynivka / Kramatorsk / Solvyansk, Pokrovsk and southern fronts. But even on the Siversk and Kupyansk fronts things seem to be getting a little easier for the Russian military. The Sumy front is still serving as a honeypot to suck in Ukrainian forces for destruction.

In addition, what is left of Ukraine’s artillery and armoured vehicles are being destroyed; leaving an infantry heavily dependent on SUVs and other civilian vehicles for transport and with only drones to combat the Russia’s overwhelming firepower. Weekly loss reports for the Ukrainian army already show a compete lack of Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) and Armoured Fighting Vehicles (AFV), with a handful of 1960s death-trap Armoured Personnel Carriers (APC) being destroyed now and again. Weekly tank losses can usually be counted on one hand, with the odd surge as perhaps a trickle of new supplies arrive and/or the Ukrainian high command throws in the last of its reserves in a vain attempt to hold a strategic location (only to be rapidly destroyed). Even the light armoured vehicle (e.g. Humvee) numbers are dwindling, as are the artillery losses.

And even with respect to drones, Russia’s productive capacity is starting to create an overwhelming advantage. Even outlets such as CNN are starting to give a more truthful take on the position of Ukraine, while of course shedding crocodile tears for the small number of Ukrainian civilian casualties (none for the children torn apart with US bombs and bullets, and intentionally starved, in Gaza).



But we still get the utterly delusional propagandist nonsense form other parts of the media, especially those in the UK, with the “Russia running out of soldiers” meme that has been repeated for years now once again rolled out.



We should expect severe infighting to start breaking out within the fascist regime, especially as the money from the West starts to dry up. We should also be expecting the Russians to be in discussions with senior Ukrainian officers about providing intelligence and facilitating mass surrenders as a quid pro quo for better treatment after the inevitable defeat.





Just as the Ukrainian rear is getting hit by escalating levels of Russian attacks, both reducing the domestic MIC output and bringing the war fully home to the Ukrainian population.



The Europeans threaten with their toy armies

The end game is approaching, it may still be a year away but it is inevitable; a colossal defeat and crisis for the European vassal elites. Without the backing of the US, the European nations will not intervene directly in Ukraine without the permission of the Russians. Large numbers of body bags arriving home from Ukraine will be very detrimental to the legitimacy and possible political survival of the vassal political leaders. Together with the ongoing Western European deindustrialization driven by US tariffs, Chinese competition, sclerotic state and business bureaucracies, and high energy prices, this defeat will deliver Europe into a relative irrelevance in geopolitical terms. A declining archipelago at the Western end of a fast-growing and integrating Eurasia. The bellicosity of the European elites with their toy armies and stunted profiteering Military Industrial Complexes is quite hilarious, perhaps meant more for their home populations and to assuage their own feelings of inadequacy.





With respect to the video below, the Bundeswehr is the German armed forces as a whole. Of which, the German army is a part.



And in the India-Pakistan war, the vaunted French Rafale was shown to be at a severe disadvantage to the Chinese J10. Russian fighter jets may also have been shot down, but those were the older SU-30 (introduced in India from 2002 with many locally built) and MIG-29 (purchased from the 1980s onwards), not the later SU-35 (Russia has about 100), and SU-57 (Russia has 42). In addition, as with China, Russia does not export its longer-range air-to-air missiles. Russian fighter jets have air-to-air missiles with a range of up to 300km, far out-distancing those of Western fighter-jets. In addition, there are the extensive long range surface-to-air S300, S400 and S500 batteries and the mid range Tor and Pantsir batteries. The reason why a Western imposed “no fly zone” over Ukraine will never be implemented.



The British army has 74,000 active soldiers, Germany 63,000, and France 118,600. A significant amount of these will be for logistics and other rear area functions, so the amount of actual front line troops will be significantly less. Any move of such forces into Ukraine would immediately make them legitimate targets for the Russian military, together with their supply chains and military factories. The Polish army also has about 110,000 soldiers, which is still not a large number when compared to Russia (623,000 in April 2025 and increasing by at least 5,000 per month). The Polish government have also messaged that they will not be sending Polish troops, at least official ones, into Ukraine. The Russian MIC is also massively out producing its European (and even US) counterparts at much lower per-unit costs.

The Western European armies have also shed much of their equipment as everything not tied down was sent to Ukraine, the British military even had to buy new artillery guns from Sweden as they had given all of theirs to Ukraine. Many of the vaunted Western wunderwaffen have also been shown to be less effective than their Russian equivalents, and seriously exposed to the new drone-heavy warfare. In addition, Western Europeans are just not that into serving in the military when much better options are available. Gen Z is also much less militaristic and ready to make sacrifices for “the nation”. The European armies are having serious difficulties recruiting even for their current numbers, let alone increased numbers, even after reducing training standards.





The French recently had a nice parade of their “powerful” armed services, I can imagine the Russian military leaders sarcastically stating the Russian equivalent of “shiver me timbers!” Powerful perhaps against second and third rate militaries, but no match for the Russian military (nor for Chinese fighter jets).



There is increasing talk of reintroducing a military draft to counter the “Russian threat”, but this may be much more about countering the threat to the European oligarchy from within. Military service is a great way of taking out of circulation the youth and indoctrinating them with “nationalist” fervour. As with WW1, war is a great way of redirecting troubling social forces away from a focus on the oligarchy. What it will not make for though is a highly experienced, skilled and motivated military machine. In contrast, let’s remember that the Russian army is now battle hardened by 3 plus years of war against a Ukrainian military that has been much stronger and committed than any European army; one that has been resupplied and heavily rebuilt three times. Now seemingly on its last legs.

Russian “war, war” facilitated by regular “jaw, jaw”

My assumption is, that given the US agreement incapability and Trump’s obvious turn away from Ukraine, the Russians will just keep changing the facts on the ground; including in the Sumy, Kharkov, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, together with the remaining part of the Kherson oblast. Then the Tchemihiv and Poltava oblasts in the north, and the Mykolaiv and Odessa oblast in the south will be all that is required to properly neuter the Ukrainian state (while also protecting Transnistria from Moldovan aggression and mistreatment). Moves by the Polish and Hungarians to take parts of northeastern Ukraine and Transcarpathia respectively should be welcomed as a further weakening of the Ukrainian fascist regime.

Continued “war, war” while keeping up the regular “jaw, jaw” of performative negotiations is working for the Russians; even with Trump playing games with his nuclear submarines. Important for Russia to keep escalating their demands at each new set of negotiations, driving home that “the terms of surrender will only get worse” while keeping at bay any possibility of losing the peace at the negotiating table while the facts on the ground continue to be changed in Russia’s favour.

https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/ukraine-update-268

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July drone war I

Russia's Rubicon drone center. Invisibility cloaks, solar-powered ambush drones. Drone boats, drone-hosted internet. The Prince Vandal Novgorodsky drone.

Events in Ukraine
Aug 04, 2025

Time to take a look at how the robots are going. Today’s topics:

— Invisibility cloaks to hide from drone thermal vision capabilities

— Internet deployed via frontline fiber-optic drones

— Inside Russia’s Rubicon drone group

— Rubicon’s new drone boat attacks

— Solar-powered ambush drones

— Details on Russia’s most popular fiber optic drone and its industrial localization - the Prince Vandal Novgorodsky

First off, the overall state of this technological war.

On July 25, the liberal nationalist Ukrainska Pravda released another interview with Kyryllo Veres, one of the most well-known drone specialists in the army. In Veres’ usual style, it was titled ‘if we don’t change, we’re fucked’.



– How would you assess our enemy in 2025? In what ways are we better or worse than Russia?
– They’re ahead of us probably in everything. As unpleasant as it is to say, probably in everything. They've learned how to scale everything faster.
– Yes . They have people and money.
– Everyone has money. We also have money — maybe not as much, but we do have it. But they have people. Everything else is secondary. They can afford to do things like that. And we... we can't. So the main priority — in the drone warfare line — is the destruction of personnel.


Drone operators are by far the most important targets for both sides.

And today I will be going into Russia’s most important drone human capital - the Rubicon group. Veres had high praise for it, as do all Ukrainian drone experts:

– How do you assess the work of the enemy's drone unit?
– The work of the Rubicon unit? Top-level. It’s basically like their version of our Drone Line [I wrote about it here - EIU.
– And how are they?
– Well, wherever they are… let’s just say, wherever they’re deployed, wherever they operate, I don’t envy our units there. They’ve got everything.


(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/july-drone-war-i

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Shocking kidnapping by the Russian Spetsnaz of two British colonels leading the Bandera sabotage in the Crimean direction

Moscow's New Doctrine; a sharp increase in the dynamics and severity of Russian responses to the endless stream of NATO provocations in Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

Dr Ignacy Nowopolski
Jul 28, 2025

Since 2014, not only NATO intelligence agents, but also "mercenaries" or "military advisors" dressed in Ukrainian uniforms have been operating in Ukraine continuously. This fact was ignored by the Russian Federation.

On the other hand, the Kremlin's approach to these "defenders of democracy and freedom" has evolved during the last 3.5 years of the conflict.

Initially, Russia pretended not to notice them, then began to eliminate their larger concentrations with missile attacks. And both sides (NATO & FR) pretended that nothing had happened. Routinely, Russia has not attacked "NATO delegations" visiting Ukraine.

However, the situation has changed dramatically. The Russian Federation has lost patience, and probably also after a delay has come to the conclusion, which is why it is the right one, that ZIK (the Western empire of lies) understands only brute force, and every gesture of leniency is understood as proof of weakness.

The recent visit of NATO officials to Kiev ended in a bloody carnage. Then the "Polish general" Skrzypczak was liquidated in Stanisławów in Eastern Lesser Poland (now occupied by the Banderites).

Another escalation was the kidnapping of two British colonels at a Ukrainian base on the Black Sea, commanding Bandera's sabotage troops in the Crimean direction.

From Ukraine's deep hinterland, they were delivered to Moscow.

ZIK routinely responded with a litany of lies, claiming that they were "tourists" visiting battle sites in Ukraine.

However, since compromising intelligence materials, diplomatic passports, organizational charts of their subordinate Ukrainian units, and plans for further terrorist actions on the territory of the Russian Federation were seized along with them, the ZIK propaganda had to shut down and ignore the incident.

The names of these colonels are as follows: Edward Blake and Richard Carroll.

The video below presents the faces of these two military men (3:25 min of the recording).



Photos of diplomatic passports and other sabotage documentation are also presented, along with extensive commentary.

The British side tried to classify these terrorists in uniform as prisoners of war, but the RF replied that they did not fall into this category. After all, from a formal point of view, the UK and the Russian Federation are not at war. Therefore, they will be treated as saboteurs or terrorists, for which they are threatened with a noose. They do not deserve to be shot.

Personally, the death of the globalist "general" of the Polish Army, Skrzypczak, or other "Polish soldiers" from the already over 10,000 list of mercenaries who lost their lives in defense of the Banderites, is of little interest to me. They wanted to make money on the betrayal of the Homeland, so they did!

Whereas, what is critical information for those inhabitants of the Third Polish Republic who still feel Poles is the fact that Russia has started an escalation of the NATO-Russia proxy conflict in Ukraine, on its NATO participants, so far in the Ukrainian area, but in accordance with the announcements, it considers dynamic expansion, also to the territories of countries whose citizens and military equipment participate in the current kinetic action.

"Oresznik moment" is approaching us with milestones. As I have explained many times, hypersonic weapons are uninterceptable, and in addition, the effects of their use are identical to a nuclear weapon cataclysm, only with the exception of nuclear radiation. After deploying the launchers of this weapon in Belarus, the Russian Federation is able to destroy the entire NATO Europe from the eastern border of Poland to Lisbon within 5 minutes.

The depth of its impact is such that the "European elites" with their ignorant "generals" will not find sanctuary even in the most powerful fallout shelters.

As more than three years of history shows, their intellectual capabilities do not allow them to understand this simple FACT, which, in addition, has already been practically demonstrated several times in Ukraine.

The elimination of these deranged globalist scum would only be good for Europe and its people. The problem, however, is that these state-of-the-art weapons are not "intelligent" enough to distinguish Humans from satanic creatures!

So Europe's citizens MUST take matters into their own hands before it's TOO LATE.

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... he-russian
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Aug 06, 2025 11:50 am

Mechanisms for the supply of weapons
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 06/08/2025

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“Russia's ground offensive in eastern Ukraine is creeping forward this summer, at enormous cost,” writes The Economist this week , strictly adhering to the official Ukrainian line of emphasizing that progress is slow and comes at the cost of enormous material and personnel losses. The only evidence of this is Ukraine's insistence on highlighting that, despite Kiev chasing recruits through the streets and suffering from obvious shortages of troops at key points along the front, Russia is losing incomparably more troops than Ukraine. Even Donald Trump has joined this trend, providing figures last week indicating that Russian losses were 14 times greater than Ukrainian losses—an unsustainable situation that has already been detected by those who closely follow the actions of Russian troops, specifically for these situations. The slowness of progress is evident, as is the lack of a major offensive involving hundreds of thousands of troops, as predicted by CNN, citing sources familiar with the information Vladimir Putin had given Donald Trump in their last conversation. The war of attrition continues, focusing on Donbas and Kharkiv.

Russian troops push Ukrainian troops away from Toretsk and advance on Chasov Yar, forcing Ukraine to reinforce the Konstantinovka direction, the next obstacle on the way to Kramatorsk-Slavyansk. A few kilometers further west, the mission to isolate Pokrovsk and Mirnograd progresses slowly, but the first sabotage groups are already beginning to operate in the urban area south of Pokrovsk, once a north-south and east-west logistical and communications hub. Russian advances in the western part of Donetsk have caused the city to lose its strategic importance for Ukraine in this regard, but it must not be forgotten that it would automatically regain it, albeit in the opposite direction, if it were to fall into Russian hands. In the northernmost part of the eastern front, far from the media's attention, Russian progress is no longer in the Kupyansk area , but is approaching the city itself, an added danger for Ukraine in one of the places where it obtained one of its greatest victories in the autumn of 2022 and where it did not expect to encounter serious defensive difficulties again.

For The Economist , which like other media outlets prefers to focus on putting things in perspective and understanding the front as just one of many battles in which the outcome of the war is at stake, the main danger is not the ground advance, but the successes Russia is achieving in developing the main innovation this war brings to military history. “Its escalating drone campaign against the country's cities is arguably a more serious threat. Day after day, attacks on Ukraine's civilian and military infrastructure, not to mention people's homes, are devastating the country's economy and undermining its morale. Finding ways to block more of them is an urgent priority,” it explains, admitting that, despite the Western media and countries praising the ingenuity, engineering, and development of drones in Ukraine, Moscow far surpasses Kiev in both quantity and effectiveness. This is evident: despite Ukraine's objective successes in Operation Spider Web or attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, such as the oil depots attacked this week in southern Russia, the impact of Russian drones on a daily basis is incomparably more important in defining the state of the war.

“Swarms of Geran-2s, the Russian version of the Iranian Shahed kamikaze drone, are beginning to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses. Until March of this year, only 3% to 5% of Gerans made it through the defenses. Last month, that figure rose to around 15%, with a significantly higher number. In addition to killing people and destroying infrastructure, the attacks exert relentless psychological pressure. They often last for much of the night. The goal is to “deepen the sense of lack of security and confidence in the state and the defense forces,” Serhii Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Army’s Southern Division, told The Kyiv Independent ,” the English outlet added, adding that the data multiplies the efficiency of Russian drones by between three and five times. Ukraine’s need to maintain its narrative of victory over air defenses and the superiority of Western weapons suggests that the data provided underestimates the successes of Russian drones.

The subtext of these types of articles, which admit Russia's ability to develop the important weapons of this war, is always the same: demanding more Western weapons, as well as funding and support for domestic production of those that can be manufactured on Ukrainian territory, even during the war. This is the case with drones, which, as El País reported a few weeks ago , are produced in any home in any town near the front lines. This may explain some Geran-2 attacks in populated areas, which are assumed to be intended to attack the civilian population or "hunt" them, as Volodymyr Zelensky stated on Monday.

Whatever the outcome of Russia's latest attempt to avoid the imposition of even more sanctions against it and its allies and energy sector customers—India and China—Ukraine's need for massive amounts of weapons and financing will not diminish. Even if the Kremlin were to accept a ceasefire, something it has so far rejected, seeing it as a way to halt its advances and an attempt at a false closure of a conflict that would become chronic, the European intention is a massive rearmament project in its " Porcupine" strategy . Continuing the war would require defensive and offensive weapons for immediate use, and opening up to diplomacy or a ceasefire, both less likely than an escalation phase, would require that same material as a deterrent package to prevent a new Russian attack or to prepare Ukraine for a possibly inevitable resumption of hostilities.

The need for weapons for war or peace requires financing, development and production plans, and, above all, acquisition and delivery plans, which are being worked on by the various actors who aspire to continue sponsoring, arming, and financing this war for as long as necessary . Various initiatives on both sides of the Atlantic seek to ensure that this conflict never lacks the material with which to continue fighting, if necessary, until the last Ukrainian .

“On July 31, a U.S. Senate committee approved a spending bill that includes $1 billion in aid to Ukraine, despite the Trump administration’s prior promise to reduce funding for military assistance to Ukraine in its next defense budget,” The Kyiv Independent reported last week . “The Senate Appropriations Committee voted 26 to 3 in favor of an $852 billion budget for the Department of Defense, which includes $800 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) and $225 million for the Baltic Security Initiative, the bulk of which is earmarked to support Kyiv,” it added. Despite Trump's willingness to assign European countries the responsibility for bearing a large part of the war costs, the United States cannot completely ignore the financing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces or the logistics of supplying the weapons.

However, these spending projections stand in stark contrast to the large military assistance packages requested from Congress during the Biden administration. Trump's words about not abandoning Ukraine to its fate and the United States' willingness to continue supplying arms have prompted a legislative effort euphemistically dubbed the Peace Act. Two high-profile Republican senators, Roger Wicker and Jim Risch, chairmen of the Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees, respectively, seek to guarantee an annual minimum that Washington would allocate to military assistance.

“His bill would create a fund at the U.S. Treasury to accept money from allies. The defense secretary could then use the fund to pay contractors to replenish U.S. stockpiles so the Pentagon can continue sending weapons packages to Ukraine without undermining America’s own military readiness, according to Republican aides familiar with the proposal. The aides said the hope is to create a funding source of $5 billion to $8 billion a year. Potential contributors include Germany and the United Kingdom, they explained,” The Wall Street Journal wrote last week . In addition to being a way to guarantee arms for Ukraine, the proposal is openly a form of European subsidy to the U.S. military-industrial complex, the main beneficiary of this conflict that will require vast quantities of materiel even beyond a future ceasefire.

“Through this approach, NATO allies hope to provide $10 billion in arms to Ukraine, a European official said on condition of anonymity. It is unclear over what timeframe they expect to deliver the weapons. “That is the starting point, and it is an ambitious goal we are working toward. We are currently on that trajectory. We support the ambition. We need that volume,” the European official said. A senior NATO military official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said the initiative was “a voluntary effort coordinated by NATO in which all allies are encouraged to participate,” Reuters added . The objective of European countries, which are aware that the United States has made it clear that the cost of much of the war must be borne by continental allies, is to ensure continued supplies, even at the cost of acting as a sponsor for the power from which they have committed to acquiring an additional $600 billion a year in military weapons.

“I thank the Netherlands for taking the initiative and turning it into concrete support on the ground, following the steps taken last week by Germany to deliver more Patriot systems to Ukraine,” said NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, referring to the donation to Ukraine of the first batch of weapons purchased by European countries from the United States to send to the war. The idea remains the same: the United States provides the weapons; European countries provide the funding; and Ukraine provides the blood. Both its own and that of others.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/06/32753/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Ukraine has no place in the European Union, it cannot be among the civilized states, said Szijjarto.
This is how the head of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry commented on Kiev's refusal to investigate the case of the murder of a Hungarian during forced mobilization.

Not only for this reason, but also for this reason.

***

Colonelcassad
Syrsky states that the offensive operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kursk region achieved most of the goals set by the state's top leadership.

They ran away victoriously😀

***

Colonelcassad
Washington has approved a new package of military aid to Kiev.
The State Department issued a press release announcing the allocation of $104 million for the repair of M777 howitzers and $99.5 million for transportation and logistics services.
The news comes just in time for Whitkoff's visit to Moscow.

@voenkorKotenok

***

Colonelcassad
2:39
Kremennaya is a city of fear. Maximum speed. With fighters of the special regiment of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the LPR, we rush along the most terrible roads of the Kremensky district. Killer drones on fiber optics look for gaps in the networks of the protective tunnel and, seeping inside, look for their victim.

Kremennaya has been a frontline city for more than three years. But in recent months, the number of enemy attacks here has broken all records. The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not spare even civilian cars and passenger buses. If they do not find military targets, they hit any car so that the flight of their drone is not in vain.

Fighters of the Zapad group counter the threats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, having destroyed a large UAV control point in the Krasnolimansk direction.
report: @zimenkin

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*******

Brief Frontline Report – August 5th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Aug 05, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "Under the pressure of our assault groups, the enemy was forced to abandon their positions and retreat from the settlement of Yanvarskoye (marked with a Russian flag) in the Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian Armed Forces units resisted fiercely, striving to maintain control over this strategically important sector of the front."

Image
ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.02.2025=Line of Combat Contact February 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.3.2025=Line of Combat Contact March 1st, 2025. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary. Граница областей=Oblast Border*.

The village of Yanvarskoye (47°56′48″N 36°35′25″E, approximately 300 residents, Ukrainian: Sichneve) forms part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defensive line Malievka-Yanvarskoye-Novoselovka, which covers the Velikomikhailovka (Velykomyhaylovka)-Pokrovsk hub (the town of Pokrovsk lies outside this map area, west of Velikomikhailovka village; different from the larger Pokrovsk Russian Forces are currently fighting in) in Dnepropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine. This position is located on the right bank of the Volchya River (Wolf River on the map; it follows the Dnepropetrovsk border then curves off through Novoselovka and Velikomikhailovka.

The map shows that by liberating Yanvarskoye, Russian Armed Forces have created a deep wedge (approximately 4 kilometers) that envelops the Aleksandrograd area and the network of ravines leading to the Volchya River from the south. This river marks the new boundary with Ukraine. The distance from Aleksandrograd to Iskra (originally Andreevka-Klevtsovo) is about 8 kilometers of rugged terrain with no settlements.

To the north, the Yanvarskoye wedge encircles the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defensive area of Kameshevakha-Voronoe (south and southwest of Yanvarskoye), which relies on the Voronaya River and covers the approach to the watershed between the Voronaya and Yanchur Rivers (the Yanchur is mostly west of the map, but you can see a bit of it in the southwestern corner). At the center of this area lies the village of Temirovka, liberated on July 29.

This configuration provides Russian Armed Forces with operational flexibility in this key sector of the southern Donetsk axis (which should now be renamed the Dnepropetrovsk axis).

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... august-5th

******

What's there to fight for? Ukraine is exploding from within.

Life at Reichskommissariat Ukraine continues as normal. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichskommissariat)
Dr. Ignacy Nowopolski
Aug 04, 2025

In Vinnytsia, conscript catchers from the TKK herded a hundred captured slaves—sorry, free citizens—into the Lokomotiv stadium. Mothers and wives, relatives, and friends rushed to their aid, breaking down the stadium gates and overpowering security forces. They fought fiercely, despite being beaten with batons and sprayed with tear gas.

They failed to repel the attacks – the unfortunate people were deported, and the protesters were beaten bloody.

Thanks for reading Dr’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Ukrainian military commissars are afraid to travel to western Ukraine (the heart of Banderland), where they are beaten by everyone and anyone. But they oppress the residents of Little Russia—they catch them on the streets, mutilate them, torture them, kill them, and then present their families with mocking excuses like, "The conscript banged his head against the wall for so long that he sustained injuries that were beyond his life."

Paradox: in Ukraine, its Russian-speaking inhabitants are sentenced to death, while western Ukrainians (Banderites) stay quietly at home

And now Vinnytsia has revolted. It's crucial that, in many ways, it's a women's revolt. Women and teenagers are the fuel behind all the Ukrainian Maidan protests. Will this evolve into something more?

On the one hand, the anti-mobilization rebellions lack many things—organization, leadership, the ability to scale. They also lack the sweet drug of Western applause and quick fame. White gentlemen don't want to listen to the sobs of Ukrainian wives and mothers.

On the other hand, this is the first grassroots rebellion on such a large scale. During the three years of the "special military operation," Ukrainians were afraid and did not want to cause a stir. But today, society is desperate.

Bad news is coming from the front, the Bandera army is retreating daily. Western powers are juggling military and financial aid: I'll give it if I want it, I won't if I don't want it. The Western establishment is actively engaged in dialogue with Moscow, bargaining, and apparently preparing to surrender Ukraine in its entirety. So what's there to fight for?

A rather unexpected answer to this question was recently given by the Prime Minister of Sweden, who demanded that Ukrainians legalize same-sex marriage as soon as possible. Otherwise, Europe is hesitant to let these "backward troglodytes" into the EU.

Ukrainian mothers face an interesting prospect – either send their son to the front or quickly marry him off to a foreigner so that he can go abroad.

So what are we fighting for, if not for same-sex marriage and an extra billion for Zelensky? This question is particularly troubling young people who participated in mass protests against the closure of anti-corruption agencies in Ukraine.

Yes, they're being called Soros agents. What matters is that they're starting to hate Zelensky. For the first time in years, people in Kyiv were shouting, "Throw out the president!"

All these young people have a clear vision of their immediate future: their student leave will end, and they and their loved ones will have to go and die on the front, which by then will be close to Kyiv. Do they need this?

Another important point: contrary to all myths about democracy, power in Ukraine is changed exclusively by force – through coups d'état, which occur every ten years. Eleven years have passed since the last Maidan. A new generation has emerged, hungry for money and power, who see the only path to the top – over the heads of the current establishment. Politicians, pushed into opposition, have reached a deadlock. At some point, grassroots revolts against the mobilization could turn into youth protests. Then, the current Ukrainian government will find itself in trouble.

The impetus for this could be the beginning of women's mobilization: Ukrainian women with medical and pharmaceutical education are now required to register with military registration and conscription offices. The idea of combating gender inequality by sending girls to the battlefield has long been imposed on Ukrainian society, and it's now bearing fruit. Soon, men from the Conscription Offices (TKK) will be kidnapping wives, daughters, sisters, and lovers on the streets.

Generally, the fate of Ukrainian women is a story in itself. At the beginning of the "special military operation," Ukrainians published a video of a woman with a sickle slitting the throat of a "Muscovite" (it should be noted that this is purely extremist content). But this witch's fury turned against Ukrainian women themselves: the "ladies" had handed over their husbands and sons to death, traveled abroad to earn extra money as prostitutes, and now they themselves are condemned to be cannon fodder—and for what? To watch gay pride parades and catch bouquets at gay weddings? "That's sad, girls."

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... ploduje-od

Google Translator

(If ya don't like gay pride parades or gay marriages don't attend them. Is that so hard?)

******

Corruption on drones: NABU and SAPO exposed a high-profile scheme involving a deputy and officials
August 04, 2025, 12:38Read also in Russian

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photo: NABU and SAPO

NABU, together with the SAPO, reported suspicions to members of an organized criminal group that systematically appropriated budget funds intended for the purchase of drones and electronic warfare equipment for the needs of the defense forces

This informs the NABU press service, reportsRegioNews.

According to the investigation, in 2024–2025, members of the group misappropriated up to 30% of the value of defense contracts through corruption mechanisms.

One example is a contract for FPV drones worth almost 10 million hryvnias, with an overstatement of approximately $80,000, part of the amount later ending up in the hands of the individuals involved.

Suspicions were raised:

former head of the Luhansk Oblast Autonomous Region Serhiy Haiday ;
current People's Deputy of Ukraine from the "Servant of the People" party Oleksiy Kuznetsov;
head of the city military administration;
commander of a military unit of the National Guard;
the actual beneficiary of the UAV manufacturing company;
director of this company.

The beneficiary and the company director are also accused of obstructing the activities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - according to the investigation, they helped, for money, to issue "reservations" for men who were to be mobilized.

Four people have been detained, and the issue of preventive measures is being resolved.

The case is being investigated under several articles of the Criminal Code:

Part 5 of Article 191 (misappropriation of property on a particularly large scale),
Part 4 of Article 368 (obtaining unlawful benefit)
Part 1 of Article 114-1 (transmission of information on the movement of weapons/military equipment under martial law).

The investigation is ongoing. NABU and SAPO do not rule out new suspects in the case.

It is worth noting that these operations were carried out after the parliament restored the independence of anti-corruption bodies , responding to public protests against the limitation of their powers.

Read also: What to expect from Ukraine's first anti-government protests in times of full-scale war

We will remind, the day before, after a meeting with the heads of anti-corruption agencies, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that they had been exposed for taking bribes. one of the people's deputies of Ukraine, as well as the heads of district and city administrations, and servicemen of the National Guard of Ukraine,

It was previously reported that on July 31, the Verkhovna Rada restored the powers of the NABU and the SAPO.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/ukraine/1 ... g_rewarded

Google Translator

******

The Secondary Sanctions Squeeze

U.S. President Donald Trump is now largely following his predecessors hostile policy towards Russia.

If the war in Ukraine continues on its current path Russia will end it with an outright victory. The U.S. and its European vassals are trying to impose a ceasefire to prevent that. It would give time to rebuild the Ukrainian army and to restart the war at a more convenient time. But Russia won't budge until its war aims are met.

A hoped for countermeasure is to pressure Russia's oil customers, to thereby decrease its income and prevent it from finishing the war in its favor.

When the war started in 2022 the European Union cut its own access to Russian oil and gas supplies. It started to buy more oil from Gulf countries and other producers. India and China were thus suddenly cut of from their traditional suppliers. They started to buy Russian oil. Then U.S. President Joe Biden encouraged that. He did not want global gas prices to rise. Global supplies continued on an unchanged level and the change in the routes of oil around the globe had only a minor effect on prices.

One side-effect though was noticeable in some European refineries. Several of them were specialized in processing heavy Ural oil. They eventually had to go idle. Their business were picked up by Indian refineries which processed Russian oil and exported the resulting diesel fuel to Europe.

But now the U.S., and its European vassals, are trying to impose sanctions and/or tariffs on China and India for their continued buying of Russian oil. This would disturb the new market balance and eventually lead to higher oil prices for everyone.

China has successfully rejected U.S. pressure. In response to tariff threads it withheld minerals the U.S. needs. Trump had to pull back.

India is Trump's new target:

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump - Aug 04, 2025, 14:50 UTC
India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA. Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!


India's Ministry of External Affairs responded by pointing out the hypocrisy of demanding for it to end trade relations while continuing the U.S.' own trade with Russia:

...
4. Europe-Russia trade includes not just energy, but also fertilizers, mining products, chemicals, iron and steel and machinery and transport equipment.

5. Where the United States is concerned, it continues to import from Russia uranium hexafluoride for its nuclear industry, palladium for its EV industry, fertilizers as well as chemicals.

6. In this background, the targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable. Like any major economy, India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security.


Seeing resistance Trump promptly upped his demands:

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would increase the tariff charged on imports from India from the current rate of 25% "very substantially" over the next 24 hours, in view of New Delhi's continued purchases of Russian oil.
He also said a "zero tariff" offer for imports of U.S. goods into India was not good enough, alleging that India was "fuelling the war" in Ukraine.
...
The latest comment followed a similar threat on Monday, which prompted India's Foreign Ministry to say the country was being unfairly singled out over its purchases of Russian oil.


India ia a very large and proud country. It is likely willing to fight back. Over the last 25 years the U.S. has tried to win the formally neutral India, which was friendly with Russia, as an ally. Trump is ruining this attempt.

There are Indian products, like pharmaceuticals, for which it has near monopolies and which the U.S. needs. If it is smart it will play the same game as China did with rare earth: Withhold what the U.S. needs and wait for Trump to capitulate.

To compensate for eventual damage it will, at the same time, have to seek better relations with China and even cheaper oil from Russia.

The European Union, meanwhile, continues to hurt itself. Last months it sanctioned an Indian refinery for buying Russian oil which promptly led to higher diesel prices in Europe:

The recent EU sanctions on India’s Niara Energy refinery have removed approximately fifteen percent of European diesel imports overnight, sending prices higher and creating significant market volatility.
...
With alternative supplies needed from the Middle East, Asia, and the US, diesel prices have jumped from $2.40 to $2.47 per gallon, and gas oil has climbed from $700 to $725 per metric ton. The shift comes amid already tight global supply, with Europe now required to pay a premium to attract new barrels.

It is also planning new sanctions on China even as China has proven to have escalation dominance in trade and is certain to hit back.

The attempt to fight Russia by secondary sanctions against its customers is likely to fail.

We can thus expect more attacks on Russia related shipping.

Posted by b on August 5, 2025 at 15:47 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/08/t ... .html#more

*****

Conveyor T-90
August 5, 17:06

Image

Conveyor T-90M

Enemy assessment of Russian tank production

The domestic segment drew attention to the June attempt by enemy resources to analyze the production volumes of T-90M tanks at Uralvagonzavod (UVZ) based on open source data.

They came to disappointing conclusions for themselves: contrary to Western media publications about the alleged production of 30 vehicles per year, in reality this number is much higher, and the scale is only growing.

More about figures and facts:

According to estimates by Ukrainian resources, in 2022, UVZ produced up to 70 tanks of this type. Some of the vehicles were not new assemblies, but modernizations of previously produced T-90As to the T-90M level, as assumed by the contracts concluded before the SVO.

However, already in 2023, the annual production rate more than doubled, and last year alone, up to 300 vehicles were delivered to the Russian Armed Forces. At the same time, all currently produced T-90Ms are made from scratch, including the hulls.

The enemy's resources claim that since the beginning of 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have managed to destroy approximately 130 T-90M. Even if this figure is completely true, the annual production covers the losses for the entire period of the SVO and even allows increasing their number in the troops.

At the same time, the enemy media note possible potential difficulties with components and equipment wear, which may complicate further increase in production. But the scale of the T-90M's use on the front line has decreased due to the drone factor, so the number of tank losses has decreased.

In this case, we are talking about the enemy's estimates - the real figures may differ (although it is still a question in which direction). However, the order of numbers shows what Western analytics ( https://t.me/rybar/29387 ) are worth at the beginning of the SVO about how sanctions against UVZ will stop tank production.

This is also a good illustration of the theses "Russia produces almost nothing and fights only with Soviet reserves", popular among the Ukrainian and, for some reason, part of the Russian public. Although it correlates with the release of the T-90M from scratch in approximately no way.

And yet, a tank is an expensive high-tech product that will not "overwhelm" the enemy in today's reality. The fruits of production success can only be obtained with a rational approach, starting from the tactics of using machines and ending ( https://t.me/rybar/72486 ) with a specialized KAZ.

@rybar - zinc

After the start of the SVO, many finally understood why the USSR produced a huge number of tanks and left our generation with huge stocks of tanks, some of which were not cut up and sold after the destruction of the USSR. And which were useful to us.

I wrote back in 2022 - the country needs another 1-2 tank factories + 2-3 factories for the production of light armored vehicles. Current capacities are insufficient.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9996573.html

They want to be ahead of the rest of Europe...
August 5, 19:12

Image

Kiev, with its fight against monuments, including Lenin, is "ahead of all of Europe," and this does not paint the regime in a good light (c) Peskov

Domestic fighters against Soviet monuments in general and Lenin monuments in particular also want to be "ahead of all of Europe" at the level of the Bandera regime.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9996874.html

Anniversary of the Kursk adventure
August 6, 8:25

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Anniversary of the Kursk adventure

A year ago, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched an offensive in the Kursk direction. The goal of the operation was to break through to Kurchatov and the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in order to capture them, as well as to reach the Lgov-Kurchatov highway. The Ukrainian Armed Forces operation was carried out with the support of NATO, which was directly involved in planning the Kursk adventure and ensured the creation of a group for it.

The operation at the first stage was developing successfully for the enemy. Having created superiority in forces in the direction of the main attack, the enemy managed to cut off Sudzha by mid-August 7, as a result of which part of the Russian Armed Forces forces near the border found themselves in a virtual encirclement. Some groups had to retreat across rough terrain through forests, and individual fighters remained in enemy captivity for several months.

But soon enough, thanks to the efforts of the Special Operations Forces, former Wagners, the Akhmat Special Operations Forces, Marines from the 810th Brigade, and even individual groups of conscripts, the enemy's advance began to slow, and ultimately the enemy was stopped in the area of Korenevo and Bolshoy Soldatskoye. Despite the general weakness of the barriers south of Kurchatov and the Korenevo garrison, the enemy was unable to break through and ultimately did not achieve the main objectives of the operation.

Why was the start of the fighting unsuccessful for us? We will most likely find out after the war, when the operational planning documents of the Ukrainian and Russian Armed Forces become known, when it becomes clear what the intelligence of the parties reported, how the General Staffs of the parties assessed the situation. Why were the Russian Armed Forces deployed in the southern regions of the Kursk region in this way? How did the command of the direction assess the situation?

Nevertheless, it is already obvious that the beginning was unsuccessful for us, which led, among other things, to the capture of several hundred Russian Armed Forces soldiers (who were subsequently exchanged). At the same time, the enemy was unable to take particularly large trophies (unlike Balakleya and Izyum), which indicated the general weakness of the forces covering the state border in the Kursk region (this is in addition to the issues of theft during the construction of fortifications, which subsequently led to the arrests of high-ranking officials, headed by the governor of the Kursk region).

In September 2024, the front stabilized, although the enemy still made individual offensive attempts, including attempts to capture the Glushkovsky district. These efforts of the enemy were cut short and, wisely, the enemy should have reduced the Kursk salient so as not to waste valuable mechanized brigades on holding it, which were sent to the Kursk direction to the detriment of holding the front in Donbas. But the enemy continued to persist, both in order to hold what was captured and in order to implement the fantasy of exchanging the captured territory during negotiations.

The Russian military-political leadership naturally took advantage of the enemy's strategic delusions. They refused any exchanges, and the weakening of the front in Donbas as a result of the Kursk adventure was used for offensive actions in Donbas. This led to the fact that already from the second half of August and throughout the autumn, the RF Armed Forces began to set records for the liberation of territory.

Image

As a result, by December it had become obvious even to NATO that the strategic operation near Kursk had ended in failure and the operational and tactical advantages of the first stage of the offensive had been outweighed by the heavy losses of regular brigades (including valuable Western equipment) and the loss of important settlements and territories in the Donbass. At the same time, the RF Armed Forces, without significantly weakening the front in the Donbass, were already preparing to defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region in the winter. Large forces of the DPRK military were also used for these purposes. Already in the winter this led to the Ukrainian Armed Forces losing part of the Kursk salient and heavy losses, especially in the Olgovka area. The fighting in the Kursk region was bloody and the parties were constantly bringing in new reserves to maintain the intensity of their actions.


Image
Colonelcassad, [06.08.2025 10:00]

The denouement came in March 2025, when as a result of a well-planned operation by the General Staff with elements of military cunning (Operation Stream), the Kursk salient collapsed, which led to the actual defeat of the enemy's Kursk grouping, which lost a large number of people and equipment and the retreat of its remnants to the Sumy region, where the Russian Armed Forces subsequently occupied part of the northern regions as part of the creation of a security zone.

An important role in the fighting was played by Russian drone operators, who were able to crush the enemy's drone operators and actually cut out the enemy's logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakovka highway, which weakened the defensive capabilities of the enemy grouping. It is also worth noting that it was on the Kursk salient that fiber-optic drones (KVN and others) began to be used on a massive scale, which became an extremely unpleasant and painful surprise for the enemy.

As a result, the Battle of Kursk, which lasted from August 2024 to April 2025 (the liberation of Gornal at the end of April can be considered the finale), ended in a complete victory for the Russian Armed Forces. The enemy did not achieve either operational or strategic goals, suffered heavy losses in men and equipment, lost important territories in the Donbass, was unable to retain the Kursk salient as a trump card in negotiations, and the operation itself only strengthened the operational-strategic initiative held by the Russian Armed Forces. Fortunately for us, the enemy's leadership did not listen to the reasonable voices that called for a timely evacuation of the salient, saving valuable brigades and recording, albeit a small, but still operational-tactical success. The enemy's asinine stubbornness to hold the salient at any cost led the Ukrainian Armed Forces to disaster and played into our hands.

It is worth noting that the Kursk adventure did not shake the stability of the Russian rear (the state of frustration in society was observed only on August 6-7). Already in August, the flow of volunteers to the front increased sharply, the flow of humanitarian aid to front-line units increased, and the overall support for the SVO only increased.

The Nazi atrocities in the Kursk region with the murders of civilians caused the opposite effect, when even those who did not support the SVO began to think about something. The face of Ukrainian Nazism could be clearly seen once again in the Kursk region. This also led to an increase in approval of attacks on the enemy's rear. People stopped feeling sorry for the "Ukrainian boys" altogether. At the same time, the defeat near Kursk, in addition to direct losses, led to increased desertion from the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as to a further increase in evasion of mobilization.

Remember today those who took the first blow and stopped the enemy's breakthrough in August-September 2024, those who broke out of encirclement through the forests and those who, remaining behind enemy lines, transmitted important intelligence, those who fought for the initiative in the fall-winter (including our fallen Korean brothers in arms who helped liberate at least 4 settlements) and those who, during a brilliant operation, defeated the invading enemy forces in the spring of 2025. Their sacrifices and their military labor have already played and will continue to play an important role in the successful completion of the war in Ukraine and the achievement of the goals of the SVO.

The Battle of Kursk will certainly take an important place in the history of the SVO, and its victorious conclusion will certainly be included in the number of landmark operations in Russian military history.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9997787.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Aug 07, 2025 11:49 am

Proposals and sanctions
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 07/08/2025

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At the end of June, when it was beginning to become clear that Donald Trump's stance toward Russia had completely changed, Samuel Charap of the RAND Corporation commented on The Trialogue —a podcast dedicated to relations between the United States, China, and Russia—on Russia's stance toward Washington and European countries. Charap, one of two experts who has had access to the working documents of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine negotiations and whose theory is that the work done then remains a foundation upon which to build a resolution to the war when it is decided that the conflict must end, described Russia's stance toward European countries and the United States as "schizophrenic." In his assessment of the perceived shift in Russian leadership, Charap specifically mentioned the Kremlin's past characterization of European countries as mere proxies for the United States, the origin of the imposed policies and, therefore, culpable for their consequences. This stance was clear during the Biden administration, when capitals on both sides of the Atlantic moved in concert, but under Washington's clear leadership. As Charap noted, the rise of Trump, with his rhetoric of seeking peace and a very different strategy from Biden's, quickly led to a shift in Russian discourse, which began to emphasize the belligerent role, not of the United States, but of European countries.

Despite the expert's assessment, for months, the Russian Federation's change in stance has corresponded to the attitude of the countries in question. While the statements of the Weimar+ format, in which Kaja Kallas participated alongside a select group of European countries representing the European Union, systematically demanded the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity as a prerequisite for resolving the conflict, Trumpism opened up channels of communication with the Kremlin, previously closed. The scant communication that has existed between the leaders of Russia and the European countries—two phone calls with Olaf Scholz, another with Emmanuel Macron, both demanding measures, not negotiations, and the visits by Robert Fico and Viktor Orbán—have been harshly criticized by other leaders and the continental press. Hence, the face-to-face meeting between Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio, sanctioned by both Russia and China for his past foreign policy hawkishness, was a significant turning point in the way diplomatic work related to the war in Ukraine has been carried out. This is also the main reason for Moscow's schizophrenia , which has been able to exaggerate the constructive nature of the US position, but has only needed to repeat the words of European authorities to demonstrate the belligerence of London, Paris, Berlin, Rome, or Brussels.

The situation has changed significantly in recent weeks, as the apparent victory of Keith Kellogg and Marco Rubio over Steve Witkoff in the race to become the main source of information on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has led Donald Trump to shift from blaming Volodymyr Zelensky for the lack of progress in the negotiations to placing all the blame on Vladimir Putin. Following the logic of the Kellogg-Fleitz plan, of carrot and stick , incentives and threats, the US president has set his sights on Russia, to which he presented a 50-day ultimatum in early July. Although the plan of Trump's current envoy for Ukraine foresaw threats primarily in terms of arms supplies—a sharp increase if Russia refused to negotiate—the proposal has been adapted to also include direct sanctions against Russia and secondary sanctions against countries that continue to purchase Russian oil. As in the purely military aspect, the US sanctions proposal is framed in terms of self-interest, as the Russian energy sector is a rival to the US. In other words, increasing arms supplies and imposing sanctions on Russian oil provides the United States with guaranteed additional revenue from sales to NATO countries for the material to be sent to Ukraine. The US hopes that the attempted ban on Russian oil will lead to an increase in international sales of US crude. War, its threats, and the profiteering of those who see it from a distance are never far away.

With his threat of imposing sanctions and the resumption and foreseeable increase in military supplies to Ukraine through NATO allies, Trump de facto joined the ultimatum that European countries gave Russia on May 10, 2025, in Kyiv. At that time, the leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Poland gave Russia two days to accept the ceasefire that Trump had forced Zelensky to support in March and that the European Union had reluctantly adopted as the basis for seeking a solution to the war. In the time between the first ceasefire proposal imposed on Russia and the first ultimatum, European countries had managed to rewrite the US proposal, which sought a definitive resolution, to shift to the idea of a ceasefire as a prerequisite for negotiation. The European ultimatum of May fell on deaf ears. Unfazed, Russia waited for the ultimatum to fail due to the inability of European countries to retaliate, as it required American participation to be considered credible.

The current situation is the one dreamed up by Starmer, Macron, Merz, and Tusk last May, with the United States issuing an ultimatum that expires if Russia fails to counterattack with some kind of proposal that would encourage Trump to delay the deadline to achieve a breakthrough in the negotiations. It is possible that achieving a postponement through proposals was the objective of yesterday's meeting, in which Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff held talks for more than three hours. According to Bloomberg , the Russian proposal would be an air truce, exactly what Kiev was seeking in March when Donald Trump forced it to accept the idea of a ceasefire imposed on Russia. Upon leaving the meeting, Russian spokespersons, wishing to respect the timeline and claiming that Donald Trump had not yet been informed by his emissary about the outcome of the meeting, merely emphasized the constructive nature of the meeting and confirmed that both issues related to the war in Ukraine and the possibilities of economic cooperation between the two countries had been discussed. While threatening China and India with secondary tariffs for trade with Russia, Trump's envoy spoke in the Kremlin about the opportunities that may exist for the United States. Although details have not yet emerged, it is likely that Witkoff gave Putin some indication of the measures he can expect if he fails to comply, as seems evident, with Trump's demand for a tangible result toward peace by August 8. In the first message published on his personal social media account, the US president welcomed the successful meeting, the unanimous conviction that the war must end, and described the meeting as "highly productive." Although without providing details or any evidence in this regard, Trump stated that "great progress" had been made. However, at least for now, the ultimatum remains in place, and steps have begun to implement the threats that had been raised. According to The New York Times , Donald Trump announced to European allies that he intends to meet with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky as early as next week. At the moment, Russia has not confirmed its willingness to meet with Volodymyr Zelensky so hastily, so it remains to be seen whether such a commitment exists or if it is simply a product of Donald Trump's mind. In any case, yesterday's meeting in Moscow was enough for Trump supporters to insist once again that an agreement is close to being reached. Incredibly, given that Russian demands have been perfectly known for years, Marco Rubio told the media last night that, for the first time, the United States knows what Russia hopes to achieve.

Shortly before Trump's optimistic message was published, the United States announced its first sanctions, specifically against the country that is obtaining Russian oil at the largest discount. India, whose imports of Russian crude have increased exponentially since the European market was closed to Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine, has been the scapegoat chosen by the White House to apply a 25% tariff in addition to the existing tariffs on any product it intends to sell in the United States. European Union sanctions against India are expected to follow.

“I love the fact that the additional 25% US tariff on India doesn't apply if India buys Russian oil, refines it, and sells, say, gasoline or diesel, on the US market. (US energy imports are exempt from the tariffs Trump has imposed so far, and that's the case here),” wrote Bloomberg expert Javier Blas . The US wants to punish India for its energy purchases on the Russian market or for exporting Russian crude, indirectly penalizing those customers who are getting cheaper energy this way, but not itself. Curiously, Washington is not yet imposing sanctions against its true rival in Asia, China, with whom it is negotiating a trade agreement, but rather against a country with which it is much closer.

Despite being an original member of the BRICS, a bloc Trump accuses of a nonexistent anti-American stance (the bloc isn't that strong at the moment), India is possibly the weakest link in the group and is undoubtedly the closest to Washington. However, its economy, although growing, lacks the strength and capacity to export key products for today's economy—technology and rare earths, among them—that China does. In this way, Donald Trump punishes one of his regional allies, testing the effect of secondary sanctions against Russia against India. He does so by claiming that, by obtaining Russian oil at significant discounts and re-exporting it at substantial profits—in reality a reflection of the capitalist system and the potential for profit given the trade difficulties of a country with which economic relations go back decades—India is "feeding the Russian war machine." This reasoning seems weak, considering not only the tens of billions with which Western countries have fueled and continue to fuel the war machine, but also the fact that Western countries have not completely abandoned the purchase of Russian products, whether directly or indirectly through countries like Turkey or India. This was also India's first response, announcing last week that it had not issued any orders to domestic companies to modify their relationship with the Russian Federation. Insisting that the purchases of Russian oil respond to the need to meet the country's energy needs and are "based on market factors," the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated that "these actions are unfair, unjustified, and unacceptable" and insisted that it will take "all necessary measures to protect national interests."

Just as happened when Donald Trump's trade ire was directed at China rather than India, when Ukraine began accusing Beijing of collaborating with Russia in military production and alleged the presence of Chinese soldiers in the Russian army, kyiv has not wanted to miss the opportunity to jump on the bandwagon of accusations against New Delhi at this highly desirable moment. Forgetting the months in which Zelensky struggled to get Narendra Modi to visit Ukraine, a trip during which the Ukrainian leader failed in his attempt to convince the Indian leader to change his position on the absolute necessity of negotiating peace, Ukraine has joined the accusations. Coincidentally, during the week in which it became clear that Trump was going to punish the weakest country first, perhaps doing the same to China in the future, Andriy Ermak, Zelensky's right-hand man, wrote on social media over the weekend: "Unfortunately, we are detecting Indian-made components in Russian attack drones, including the Shahed/Geran models. Russia must be denied access to foreign-made parts that make these weapons and the murder of Ukrainians possible." Any time is a good time to demand sanctions against countries that refuse to send weapons to Ukraine and to help Washington, the main supplier in this war, and to remember that Ukraine must always be at the center of the argument. This also applies to US trade wars.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/07/propu ... sanciones/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
"We are not Afghanistan and will not give up sovereignty" (c) Timoshenko

You are not Afghanistan, you are worse. And unlike Afghanistan, you have no sovereignty. In addition, unlike Afghanistan, Ukraine is a terrorist state. The Taliban demonstrates the heights of adequacy and sanity against the backdrop of Ukraine.

***

Colonelcassad
1:02
Serious diplomatic activity in Moscow. After the Sultan of Malaysia, Trump's special representative and India's national security adviser, the leader of the Emirates arrived in Russia.
So to speak, "news of diplomatic isolation".

As for the Emirati, I wouldn't be surprised if this is preparation for the negotiations between Trump and Putin in the UAE. But we'll see, the Saudis are also not averse to holding such a meeting.

It is also worth noting that after negotiations with Shoigu (who is now actually responsible for relations with the countries closest to the Russian Federation), Modi's adviser invited Putin to visit India in the near future to strengthen partnership relations. The Russian elephant is the Indian elephant's best friend.

***

Colonelcassad
Brazilian President Lula da Silva said that he intends to work with the leaders of China and India to develop a collective economic response to the unilateral US sanctions against the BRICS countries. He will probably visit China next month when Modi is there. Perhaps all this will also happen with the participation of Putin, who will come to China before the September holidays.

Brazil considers Trump's policy unacceptable and is not going to bend under American pressure. In fact, American pressure gives BRICS a chance to become something more than just an economic club of interests.

***

Colonelcassad
Over the past night, air defense systems on duty destroyed and intercepted 82 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles of the aircraft type :

- 31 over the waters of the Sea of Azov,
- 11 over the territory of the Republic of Crimea,
- 10 over the territory of the Rostov region,
- 9 over the territory of the Krasnodar region,
- 8 over the waters of the Black Sea,
- 7 over the territory of the Volgograd region,
- 4 over the territory of the Belgorod region,
- and one each over the Kursk and Oryol regions.

In the Volgograd region, as a result of a UAV attack at the Surovikino railway station, a fire broke out in an administrative building, fortunately, there were no casualties.

Unfortunately, as a result of the fall of UAV debris, a civilian was injured in Slavyansk-na-Kubani, the man was hospitalized.

@opersvodki

***

Colonelcassad
Russia and India sign protocol on expanding industrial and technological cooperation

This happened immediately after Trump imposed a 25 percent tax on India for purchasing Russian oil.

"Both sides welcomed the expansion of cooperation in the areas of aluminum production, fertilizers and rail transport, as well as capacity building and technology transfer in the field of mining equipment, geological exploration and industrial and household waste management ," the Indian ministry reported following the 11th meeting of the Indo-Russian Working Group on Modernization and Industrial Cooperation held in New Delhi.

How do you like that, Donald Trump?

***

Colonelcassad
The enemy reports that the Russian Armed Forces are dropping leaflets over Krasnoarmeysk using drones.

The leaflets call on Ukrainian soldiers to surrender in anticipation of the imminent establishment of Russian Armed Forces control over the city and not to waste their lives in vain.

Local residents are called on to report the location of Ukrainian soldiers in the city. There are still a significant number of civilians in the city hiding in basements. Potentially, there may be up to 1,500 of them.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – August 6th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Aug 06, 2025

Image
ЛБС 09.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 9th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

Interesting developments are emerging regarding the situation on the Konstantinovka direction of the Donetsk front. In our August 2, 2025 report, we highlighted the area of Yablonovka–Aleksandro-Kalinovo. The village of Yablonovka is currently being cleared, while Aleksandro-Kalinovo was liberated on August 2. As a result, the left flank of the Russian Armed Forces grouping in this sector has advanced to the Kleban-Byk reservoir. The right flank is conducting active operations toward the settlements of Katerinovka and Pleshcheevka, pushing Armed Forces of Ukraine units toward the far right edge of the reservoir. The AFU grouping, trapped south of the reservoir, faces the threat of complete encirclement.

A similar situation, but on a larger scale, is developing along the Oskol River line.

Image
ЛБС 20.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 20th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

In early June, AFU command deployed its reserves to the left bank of the Oskol River to reinforce the Senkovo-Oskol defensive line, securing their rear with the river and the Oskol Reservoir. The Russian Armed Forces control the left flank of the AFU's Borovaya salient, where they have reached the river near Senkovo and cut off crossing points. The right flank of the AFU's Borovaya salient is covered by a defensive line along the Nitrius River—Glushchenkovo–Karpovka–Shandrigolovo–Novoselovka (all of these places are west of Redkodub, the blue lines and flags represent AFU positions). Here, the narrowest stretch toward the Oskol River lies in the Karpovka–Rubtsy direction (approximately 10 kilometers, follow the big red arrow west), with a weakly developed system of strongholds. For the Russian Armed Forces, this is the most likely axis for a decisive strike aimed at separating the Borovaya salient from the Liman salient.

However, to the south, on our left flank along the Karpovka–Rubtsy line, the enemy maintains a well-developed defensive hub supported by the Izium–Liman railway. It appears that AFU command is attempting to lure Russian forces toward Rubtsy–Oskol, exploiting a weak sector while retaining the option of launching a flanking attack against advancing Russian units from the south along the entire Rubtsy–Liman line.

Recognizing this, Russian command has shifted activity further south, toward the Kolodezi–Zarechnoye and Zelenaya Dolina–Srednee–Shandrigolovo lines, to conduct blocking operations against AFU concentrations north of the Izium–Lyman railway sector.

Once this task is completed, conditions will be set for an advance into the Rubtsy–Oskol area, with a likely crossing to the right bank of the Oskol River.

By expanding bridgeheads on the right bank—from Senkovo in the north to Rubtsy–Oskol in the south—and establishing fire control over crossing points, the Russian Armed Forces will effectively trap the AFU grouping in the Borovaya salient, using the Oskol River as a natural barrier to disrupt enemy logistics, maneuver, and retreat.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... august-6th

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Five Kalibrs Later.

I am sure his instructors told him that it will be as easy as fighting for drug cartels in Colombia. You see. He even sang in Ukrainian. But then something happened ...

(Video at link.)

Yeah, I know--when shit begins to explode around you and most of your unit is left to rot in the field the bravery evaporates instantly. Yeah, I know--it is called Fire Impact (Огневое Воздействие), especially when Fire Productivity (Огневая Производительность) is beyond the experiences of all those NATO "warriors", who, for some unknown reason, the moment they learn that Russian infantry is getting to them--they run. This was in 2024.

The veteran said that when he went through training, he never got any real training for peer-on-peer conflict. "A little bit of talking about it and just a little bit of training, but nothing to the point that would have prepared me for the war in Ukraine," he recalled. ... He said that he has seen a lot of Western soldiers struggle in Ukraine as "they already have a set idea about how things should be and everything, and it's just not that way out in Ukraine." He said that US soldiers are used to fighting at an equipment and manpower advantage, but against Russia in Ukraine, "a lot of time I've fought at a disadvantage compared to the enemy."

This pattern--avoiding any combat contact with Russian troops--repeats itself in 2025, time after time.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/08 ... later.html

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Zelensky and the EU increasingly desperate over the inevitable outcome of the conflict

Lucas Leiroz

August 6, 2025

Calls for regime change in Russia reflect Ukrainian desperation and psychological collapse

In yet another sign of Ukraine’s psychological collapse, President Vladimir Zelensky has once again openly advocated for the political destabilization of Russia. In recent speeches, Zelensky stated that only a regime change in Moscow could guarantee “security” for Europe and prevent future conflicts on the continent. In practice, this is a desperate attempt to keep the narrative of the “Russian threat” alive, even as it becomes increasingly clear that the West has lost control of its proxy war against Moscow.

Zelensky proposes a two-step plan: deepen the seizure of Russian financial assets and intensify diplomatic and political efforts to bring down the current Russian government. His logic is simple—but completely flawed: according to him, even if the war in Ukraine ends, the “threat” will remain as long as Vladimir Putin is in power. The proposal, however, ignores Russia’s internal political reality, where Putin enjoys broad popular and institutional support.

In other words, what the West and Kiev are pursuing is a coup d’état disguised as a “democratic transition”. But any serious analyst knows that the political structure of the Russian Federation is solid and widely backed by its population. Putin’s recent re-election, with a strong majority and high voter turnout, confirms this. There is no internal base for an uprising against the Kremlin—nor is there any international legitimacy for such an operation.

Moreover, Zelensky’s calls to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s war effort border on institutionalized looting. It is a flagrant violation of international law and economic sovereignty. Confiscating the assets of citizens and companies based solely on nationality, then redirecting those resources to the war industry, reveals the level of moral and legal degradation that now dominates Western politics.

Even more concerning is the fact that European leaders, such as Kaja Kallas, have already openly advocated for the fragmentation of Russia—a dangerously revanchist discourse reminiscent of the Cold War, which undermines any possibility of multilateral dialogue. The idea of breaking up the Russian Federation into dozens or even hundreds of “microstates” reflects an imperialist fantasy rooted in the darkest moments of European colonialism—and echoes remnants of the Nazi-fascist ideology that presupposes the creation of ethno-states.

Nonetheless, the obsession with “containing” Russia ignores a fundamental fact: there is no concrete evidence that Moscow intends to invade other European countries. The special military operation in Ukraine did not stem from any expansionist ambition, but from the need to protect the Russian population in Donbass and to curb NATO’s encroachment on Russia’s borders. After years of Western provocation and the genocide of ethnic Russians in what was then eastern Ukraine, Moscow chose to act.

The Western rhetoric of “defending Europe” is a smokescreen used to justify the militarization of the continent and the artificial prolongation of the conflict. In reality, Europeans are already feeling the economic and social consequences of this suicidal policy: inflation, an energy crisis, the erosion of civil liberties, and growing public dissatisfaction—manifested most recently in electoral results favoring illiberal candidates and parties, which were shamefully censored by European governments.

The most rational path for Europe would be to distance itself from Kiev’s pro-war madness and adopt a foreign policy based on stability, sovereignty, and mutual respect. Unfortunately, European leaders appear fully aligned with a Russophobic agenda—even if it means plunging the continent into yet another decade of chaos.

Zelensky does not speak for himself; he is merely the loudest voice of a failed project that insists on attacking Russia while Ukraine itself collapses economically, militarily, and politically.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... -conflict/

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"No to people-catchers"
August 6, 2025
Rybar

" On the growing social tension in the so-called Ukraine "

The negativity surrounding the growing mobilization in the so-called Ukraine is rapidly growing, reaching critical proportions. Thus, last week there was a riot against the work of the TCC in Vinnytsia , where local residents tried to storm the stadium, where dozens of "busified" people were being taken.

At the same time, despite the suppression of protesters with tear gas and mass arrests, the number of incidents is steadily increasing. At the same time, tension is also increasing both in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, among those mobilized yesterday, and in society, among their families.

Latest news on "peaceful mobilization"
One of the best proofs of the tightening of mobilization is the news that female doctors were required to appear in person at the TCC for registration and medical examination within 60 days, under threat of criminal prosecution and search.

In this context, an indicative situation occurred in Boyarka , where ambulance workers refused to respond to a call to a mobilized person at the local TCC, arguing that the call did not come “from the military commissars themselves.”

It is not surprising that, against the backdrop of failures at the front and massive social problems, forced mobilization is increasingly perceived by Ukrainians as a death sentence. This fear is reflected not only within the country, but also in Western media, which note the growth of protests and public discontent.

This explains the statements by Ukrainian deputies that about 400 thousand people have left the units, and some of them refuse to return.

The mobilization crisis in the so-called Ukraine is deepening, increasingly becoming a systemic problem.

It is all the more important to continue the attacks on TCC facilities and their personnel . Because they increase the split in Ukrainian society and provoke the authorities to tighten the screws even more , which entails a negative response with even greater force.

https://rybar.ru/lyudolovam-net/

Google Translator

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‘Judging Freedom,’ 6 August 2025: Is Moscow Optimistic?
gilbertdoctorow August 6, 2025

Today’s chat focused on the visit of Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow in which he spent just under three hours with President Putin. The very length of their meeting suggests that there was a lot more going on than the delivery by Witkoff of Trump’s ultimatum over ending the war at once. This is further confirmed by Witkoff’s walk yesterday in the Zaryadye park next to Red Square in the company of Kiril Dmitriev, head of Russia Direct Investment and the man best prepared to discuss with the Americans prospective cooperative projects, not escalation of the confrontation.

I made the point that the seemingly bizarre actions of Trump in the past week – namely the dispatch of two U.S. nuclear missile bearing submarines closer to Russia, the delivery of nuclear weapons to the U.K. and the declaration by the senior U.S. military officer in Europe Christopher Donahue that the U.S. has ready plans to seize the Kaliningrad enclave of the Russian Federation – were just posturing to appease Senator Lindsey Graham and other radical politicians supporting Trump in Congress and were seen as such by the Kremlin. None of this creates new existential threats to Russia.

However, my main point, which Judge Napolitano now plans to put to Scott Ritter for comment later today is that the more pressure Trump & Co. place on Russia by introducing new sanctions, such as those directed against the shadow fleet of oil tankers delivering Russian oil to India and other global markets, the faster the Russian armed forces are taking territory and destroying the military assets of Ukraine. The attempted bullying only has a perverse effect of bringing peace nearer by hastening the Russian victory.

I enjoyed the opportunity to pass along to viewers speculation in Russian news today that a young parliamentarian in the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada, 35 year old Anna Skorokhod is being mentioned as a possible candidate to replace Zelensky now that the Americans are intent on his removal. Skorokhod has been loudly criticizing the forcible recruitment of youths and seniors into the Ukrainian army. She has said to the press that there are 400,000 deserters from the Ukrainian army today and she supports them. They say that Skorokhod has the support of a close business associate of Donald Trump. Could this be Witkoff?



https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2025/08/06/ ... ptimistic/

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It is the North Atlantic Alliance that is the aggressor, not the Russian Federation! Nuclear conflict ante portas.

A casual remark by a retired colonel exposes the lies of the West.
Dr. Ignacy Nowopolski
Aug 06, 2025

During a social conversation in a large group, one of the participants, a retired colonel (NATO), was asked if he was not afraid to continue living in the official accommodation near the barracks in such uncertain times?

No, he replied, on the contrary, during the war the barracks are empty because the army is in its places of deployment.

Who would bomb an empty facility? - he added.

This undoubtedly valid comment, however, exposes the Western lies about "Russia's upcoming aggression against peace-loving NATO."

If Russia were to be the aggressor, it would launch a surprise attack with hypersonic Oreshnik missiles against NATO barracks, military warehouses, and infrastructure in Europe. Using its launchers in Belarus, it would wipe out all military assets in Europe within five (5) minutes.

ONLY IN THE CASE OF A PLANNED NATO AGGRESSION AGAINST RUSSIA, THERE WILL BE NO TROOPS OR EQUIPMENT IN THE BARRACKS!

What truth did the aforementioned colonel (involuntarily) tell us?

It is the North Atlantic Alliance that is the aggressor, not the Russian Federation.
To make matters worse, the “most powerful military alliance of all time” (according to President Trump) is unable to produce uninterceptable hypersonic weapons, even though, in addition to Russia, China, Iran and North Korea already possess them.

That is why NATO is planning a “nuclear exchange of fire”, which was announced a month ago by American Rear Admiral Buchanan, responsible for the planning function.

The globalist madmen who rule the Western empire of lies (USA, UK, EU, NATO, Australia & New Zealand) will stop at nothing in their satanic madness, and there are no wise and brave people in Western societies to stop them!

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... tycki-jest

Google Translator

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Trump Wants to Meet Putin Next Week
August 7, 1:03 PM

Image

Following yesterday's talks between Putin and Whitkoff, Trump told his administration that he wants to hold a personal meeting with Putin next week, and then a personal meeting with Zelensky. Without the participation of European vassals. There is no exact date or exact dream of the meeting yet. From the contradictory statements of the White House, it follows that Putin seems not to be against a meeting with Trump, but the Kremlin also does not give any specifics on a possible meeting.

Both sides stated that the Putin-Whitkoff talks went well and some progress was noted in the negotiation process, but again without specifics. This does not affect the current course of military actions. The battles and strikes are proceeding as usual, despite the rumors about various "air" and "energy" truces.

At the same time, the White House continues to threaten the BRICS countries that buy Russian goods with secondary sanctions. They have already been imposed on India. Additional sanctions may be imposed on Brazil and China as early as August, which will exacerbate the overall competition between the West and the BRICS countries and accelerate the collapse of the decaying global market.

In the current frontline realities, when the enemy is increasingly losing territory and populated areas, Russia has no particular reason to retreat from its demands related to the recognition of Crimea and four regions as a legal part of the Russian Federation, the refusal to involve Ukraine in NATO and the deployment of NATO troops there, etc. A simple freeze of the front line does not ensure the achievement of the goals of the NMD. This is what they will talk about as long as the fighting continues.

Putin's aide Ushakov said this afternoon that the location of the meeting between Putin and Trump has already been agreed upon. It will be announced a little later. The date, it must be understood, is in the process of being agreed upon. Ushakov said that the meeting will take place "in the coming days." American media, citing the Trump administration, claim that Trump would like to meet directly with Putin as early as next week. Ushakov said that Moscow is considering next week as a benchmark.
I would guess that it would be either Turkey or one of the Persian Gulf monarchies - Saudi Arabia or the UAE. Europe has long been unsuitable as a negotiating platform, especially since Trump himself wanted negotiations without Europe's participation.
Ushakov also reported that in addition to a bilateral meeting between Putin and Trump, Witkoff, during the talks in Moscow, threw out the bait on the topic of a trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump and Zelensky. But Moscow was not interested in this option.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10000147.html

Google Translator

Prediction: not much will come of this unless Russian terms, long known, are met. (Russia has all the cards, including India thanks to Trump)

On to Odessa! Nothing short of that will assure Russia of the security which this bloodshed is buying.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Aug 08, 2025 12:06 pm

The uncertain path of diplomacy
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 08/08/2025

Image

The meeting between Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff, Trump's envoy for both the Middle East and Russia, continues to shape the political news surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, and perhaps, at least in part, the military as well. As in previous days, Ukraine has continued to attack Russian energy facilities with its drones. However, no major Russian missile attack has occurred, as speculated yesterday, when signs of such a possibility had been seen. Requested by the Kremlin—at least that was the assertion made by Donald Trump, who before Witkoff's trip showed little hope of achieving significant progress—the meeting was the last chance Russia had before the August 8 ultimatum set by the White House to show tangible progress toward peace expired. Until now, Moscow had maintained the rhetoric of normalcy, continued its operations on the front lines without any significant changes—no acceleration of the ground war, no increase or reduction in rearguard attacks—had downplayed the threat of sanctions against Russia, and delegitimized threats of secondary sanctions against its energy sector customers.

“It seems that Russia is now more open to a ceasefire. The pressure on them is working,” Volodymyr Zelensky stated after the first details of the meeting in Moscow became known. Following the trend of applying a dose of triumphalism to any event—as evidenced by Ukraine celebrating the “success” of the Kursk operation this week, now that it marks one year since its launch—the Ukrainian president held an early version of the meeting, the text of which was only known to him as published by Donald Trump. As had already been suggested by Donald Trump's message, the only source suggesting that Russia and the United States had agreed to a three-way meeting in which Volodymyr Zelensky would also participate, optimism diminished significantly in the morning when Moscow's version of events became known. According to Yury Ushakov, Vladimir Putin's most senior advisor on international policy, Moscow and Washington had reached an agreement in principle to hold a summit between the two presidents as soon as possible. Asked whether a meeting with the Ukrainian president would take place, Vladimir Putin insisted yesterday, appearing alongside the president of the United Arab Emirates, one of the candidates to host the meeting with Donald Trump, that such a meeting would require prior work that has not yet been done. While the US president hinted at the possibility of forcing a three-way meeting, the Russian insisted on a two-way summit and left a face-to-face meeting with Zelensky for a future time when the key aspects of the war have been negotiated.

“Putin agrees to meet with Trump, but not with Zelensky. So we're talking about Ukraine without the Ukraine mode. I wish I understood the people who say Russia is showing weakness,” wrote Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin. Outrage spread among journalists who regularly cover the war. “Ushakov claims that Witkoff and Putin had a ‘very constructive’ conversation about Ukraine and the prospects for US-Russian strategic cooperation. No ceasefire, no concessions from the Kremlin, apparently, just more attempts to buy time,” wrote Yaroslav Trofimov, a correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, adding that “Putin says conditions are far from conducive to a meeting with Zelensky. If he manages to hold a summit with Trump without Zelensky and without a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine, it will be a Kremlin dream come true.” And referring to the acronym TACO—Trump Always Chickens Out, Trump Always Chickens Out—used by the opposition to Trump, the journalist commented that “they will be ordering tacos by the bucketful.” The pessimism of the press also extended to think tanks . “Unfortunately, it seems that the outcome of Trump’s deadline represents an opportunity for Putin and a grave danger for Ukraine and Europe. Trump will arrive at this meeting without any influence. Putin will eat the TACO,” wrote Janis Kluge, a frequent commentator on the conflict. “Trump is giving Putin what he wants,” added information warrior Jessica Berlin, representing the most belligerent faction of European hawks.

Russia's clarification of what always seemed like a verbal excess by Donald Trump yesterday was a cold shower for Ukraine and its European allies, who for hours were unable to accept that, once again, they had been excluded from the negotiations and had not even been given full information. The first reactions did not come until yesterday afternoon, when Volodymyr Zelensky began once again demanding that Russia accept a ceasefire and insisting on the face-to-face meeting with Vladimir Putin that just hours earlier he believed he had obtained. "Europe's position is clear. We fully support Ukraine. We will continue to play an active role in ensuring a just and lasting peace," wrote Ursula von der Leyen, in a subtle way of demanding that the EU be represented in a war resolution process in which the United States only expects it to foot the bill. In this regard, the most relevant words are those of Volodymyr Zelensky, who, reporting on his conversation with Emmanuel Macron, wrote that "we are coordinating our positions and, equally, see the need for a common European vision on key security issues for Europe. Much depends, both now and in the long term, on the prudence and effectiveness of every step taken by Europe and the United States."

European countries and Ukraine are accelerating their efforts to coordinate a joint position in the face of the possibility that Donald Trump might once again change his stance, once again seeing Russian proposals as a path to resolution and Ukrainian reluctance as a form of blockade. Known for his quick about-faces, Trump has even revised the figures he had given just a few days earlier. While last week Russia had lost 100,000 soldiers killed in the war this year, the figure given by the US president after the meeting between Witkoff and Putin was reduced to a fifth, 20,000.

While remaining cautious, especially considering that the threat of sanctions remains and that no opinion from Donald Trump is permanent, Russia has reacted with a certain optimism to the events of the past few hours. "There was an offer from the US side that the Russian side considers acceptable," stated Yury Ushakov yesterday, without giving any indication of what those terms were. In response to the speculation, Zelensky's advisor Dmitro Lytvyn dismissed the alleged proposal published by a Polish media outlet. According to Onet , the United States offered a ceasefire, not peace, a freeze on the territorial issue for 49 or 99 years, and no guarantees of non-NATO expansion or suspension of military assistance to Ukraine. The proposal only differs from the one presented as "final" by Steve Witkoff several months ago in that, on that occasion, the United States offered to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea. The terms were considered unacceptable by Ukraine and its European allies, who, through the press, described the proposal as favorable to Russia.

Despite the appearance of rapprochement, the reality is that even the meeting between Putin and Trump is uncertain. Yesterday, Trump denied the information provided by the White House, which had made the meeting contingent on Russia agreeing to meet with Zelensky. The negotiations have not yet begun, and the United States doesn't even know for sure what terms it wants to impose. But even if a two- or three-way meeting takes place, we must not forget that the negotiation process for a resolution to this war is not only nonlinear but, at times, seems to go in circles. "A good day of meetings with Russia and Ukraine," Donald Trump wrote on April 25, adding that "they are very close to an agreement and the parties should meet now at a high level and finalize it . Many of the important points have already been agreed upon. Stop the bloodshed, NOW." Despite the US president's words, none of the key issues—security, territory, border status, humanitarian issues, rights of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine and Ukrainians in Russian territories, sanctions, reconstruction, reparations—had been negotiated between the parties, making it materially impossible for an agreement to be reached.

At that time, the work was still limited to shuttle diplomacy , a series of meetings through which the United States sought to achieve a term sheet , the parties' actual negotiating conditions, in an attempt to combine them and impose them as a peace agreement. More than three months have passed since then, but this Wednesday, the US Secretary of State claimed to have learned "for the first time" the actual Russian terms. How, without knowing what Russia's demands were, the United States was on the verge of reaching a peace agreement almost four months ago is something that neither Marco Rubio nor Donald Trump have explained.

The example is also a warning about assuming that the meeting between presidents will lead to a genuine diplomatic process or a ceasefire capable of becoming the basis for building peace, understood not necessarily as the absence of conflict, but at least as the absence of war. This seems to be Donald Trump's goal, eager to achieve this success in order to leave the Ukrainian issue, especially its financing, in the hands of European countries, although, thanks to the economic benefits it entails, he will continue to supply arms. As Vladimir Putin stated last week, referring to Trump's anger over the delay in achieving a ceasefire, "disappointment stems from exaggerated expectations."

Although the commitment of the United States, the main supplier of this war, is an essential element to stopping the war, making it impossible throughout the Biden era, positions remain opposed on the most important issue that Russia and Ukraine will have to address at some point in future negotiations: security, the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine, and NATO expansion. The difficulties in reaching a resolution agreement, a formula to freeze or temporarily halt the conflict, are not only due to opposing positions on key issues, but also to the role of secondary actors whose opinions are also relevant.

“The point is that we think today was productive because we now have an idea of the conditions under which the Russians would be willing to end the war. Perhaps these conditions are unacceptable to Ukraine—or, frankly, to any other country—but at least now we have something to work with. Because I don't think a meeting at the leaders' level is possible if the parties aren't already close enough. Otherwise, such a meeting would be useless. We want to get the process to a stage where the president can join and complete it. So I can't anticipate how long it will take. It could be hours, days, or even weeks; we just don't know. But we're trying,” Marco Rubio said in an interview Wednesday night. Not even the Secretary of State of the country that presented the offer to one of the warring parties is overly confident in the initiative's chances of success. Rubio's comment can be understood as a reference to European countries, whose position is very different from Donald Trump's. Although both sides of the Atlantic are seeking a ceasefire, their motives differ.

While the US president seeks to end this "stupid" war, about which he only seems certain that "it's Biden's war," European countries are preparing for a day after the military conflict will cease, but the political one will persist, justifying the rearmament policy and the closing of NATO ranks. For European capitals, a resolution, even a temporary one, stemming from a Trump-Putin meeting without London, Brussels, or Kyiv and which would lay the foundations for the relationship between the West and Russia in the short and medium term, would be a strategic defeat they are trying to avoid at all costs. They do so from the uncertainty of not knowing what to do to enter the negotiations, but from the perception that they still have the veto power to lift the sanctions. Hence, Marco Rubio's concerns are not limited to the opinion of Ukraine, but extend to other actors.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/08/32769/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Telegram
ColonelCassad
⚡The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation from 2 to 8 August 2025.

During the week, units of the North group of forces in the Sumy region defeated concentrations of manpower and equipment of a tank, three mechanized, two airborne assault, and a Jaeger brigades, two assault regiments of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a territorial defence brigade.

In the Kharkiv region, units of the group improved their tactical position , defeated formations of a mechanized, motorised infantry, artillery brigades, an assault regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and two territorial defence brigades.

- Over the week, in the area of responsibility of the North group of forces, the enemy's losses amounted to over 1,290 servicemen, a tank, 17 combat armoured vehicles and 80 cars.

- 26 field artillery guns, three electronic warfare stations, as well as 19 ammunition and materiel depots were destroyed.

Units of the West group of forces took up more advantageous lines and positions. Defeat was inflicted on the formations of three mechanized, assault, airmobile brigades, an unmanned systems regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a territorial defense brigade and a national guard brigade.

- The enemy lost more than 1,615 servicemen, three tanks and nine armored combat vehicles. 85 vehicles, 12 artillery pieces, 28 ammunition depots and 48 electronic and counter-battery warfare stations were destroyed.

Units of the "Southern" group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defenses and liberated the settlement of Aleksandro-Kalinovo of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Defeated the manpower and equipment of five mechanized, motorized infantry, assault, airmobile, mountain assault, artillery brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two territorial defense brigades, the "Azov" special forces brigade and the "Lyut" assault brigade battalion of the National Police of Ukraine.

- Over the past week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost over 1,075 servicemen, a tank, and 13 armored combat vehicles in this area.

- 19 vehicles, 20 field artillery pieces, including three Western-made ones, three electronic warfare stations, and six ammunition depots have been destroyed.

Units of the Center group of forces continued offensive operations in the Donetsk People's Republic and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Four mechanized, two airborne assault, assault, airborne, airmobile, ranger, infantry brigades, an unmanned systems brigade, two assault regiments of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, two marine brigades, two territorial defense brigades, and two national guard brigades have been defeated. - The enemy has lost up to 2,725 servicemen, two tanks, and 19 armored combat vehicles. 28 vehicles and 16 artillery pieces have been destroyed.





Over the past week, units of the Vostok group of forces, as a result of active and decisive actions, liberated the village of Yanvarskoye in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The manpower and equipment of three mechanized, mountain assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, three territorial defense brigades, a marine brigade and a national guard brigade were defeated.

-

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to over 1,530 servicemen, two tanks, nine combat armored vehicles, 51 cars, 11 field artillery guns, including two Western-made.

- Four electronic and counter-battery warfare stations, as well as two ammunition and material depots were destroyed.

Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated formations of two mechanized, mountain assault brigades, three coastal defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, three territorial defense brigades and a national guard brigade.

- More than 490 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, 34 cars, seven artillery pieces, 39 electronic and counter-battery warfare stations, as well as 24 warehouses of ammunition, material resources, military-technical property and fuels and lubricants were destroyed.

(I expect that some of these Uke 'brigades' only number a couple hundred troops at best.)

***

Colonelcassad
0:48
In Ukraine, there are "helpers" of man-catchers who, as they say, work for money. These people drive and beat the victim to a semi-conscious state, and then man-catchers or the drug-fuehrer's Gestapo arrive and, as if nothing had happened, load the carcass into the car without resistance.
"Free Ukraine and European standard of living," they said.

***

Colonelcassad
The Pentagon recently amended its policy to allow it to return weapons destined for Ukraine back to U.S. stockpiles, CNN reports.

In addition, Patriot missiles and other weapons destined for Kiev have been classified as "red," meaning they are in short supply in the United States.

***

Forwarded from
GRIGORIEV
11:02
Participated online in an informal meeting of the UN Security Council members on the "Arria formula" on the topic: "The failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region".

Presented at the meeting the materials of the International Public Tribunal on the crimes of Ukrainian neo-Nazis in the Kursk region. The discussion was about the shooting of civilians, including women and children, about strikes on civilian cars, about killings by targeted fire from drones.

Eyewitness accounts confirm that this is a systemic practice, not isolated cases.

Presented evidence of torture of Russian servicemen in Ukrainian captivity: the use of electricity, burns, strangulation, beatings, baiting with dogs.

All this evidence is confirmed and open. Any expert and journalist can contact the victims directly.

Full video recording of the event on the UN website .

Subscribe to TG channel MAXIM GRIGOREV

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – August 7th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Aug 07, 2025

Image
Харьковская Область Украины (Северо-Восток) развитие оперативной обстановки СВО=Kharkov Region of Ukraine (Northeast) development of the operational situation of the special military operation. Плацдармы буферной зоны РФ=Bridgeheads of the buffer zone of the Russian Federation

The general overview of the sections in the buffer zone along the border with Ukraine allows for a cautious assumption that this zone (at least until the Ukrainian issue is fully resolved) will not be formed as a continuous strip but rather through a system of fort-bases. These base sections will be established along highways and railways in areas with high population density and developed infrastructure. Each base section will have its own area of responsibility and the necessary allocation of forces and means for rapid response.

The eastern zone will likely be formed along the Oskol River at a distance from the right bank, with base areas located at key transport hubs.

The northwestern border of the DPR will probably be covered by a buffer zone in the city of Izyum.

The main issue concerning Kharkov Oblast will be resolved through economic and political methods after the military creates the necessary preconditions for it.
We would be interested to hear readers' opinions. In the meantime, we will prepare a map of Sumy Oblast for analysis and greater clarity.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... august-7th

******

Ukraine - Trump And Putin To Hold Peace Talks - OT 2025-177

The outcome of yesterday's three hours meeting between President Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and President Putin of Russia was surprising.

The presidents seem to have agreed on a meeting, the first in four years between the two head of states.

As Yury Ushakov, an aide to President Putin, commented after Witkoff's visit:

This meeting took place in a business-like atmosphere and was quite constructive. Both sides can be satisfied with the outcomes of this conversation. The discussion focused on matters dealing with future efforts to work together in the context of resolving the Ukraine crisis. Once again, it was noted that Russia-US relations could be placed on a totally different, mutually beneficial footing, which would be in stark contrast with the way these relations have evolved in recent years.
Regarding the Ukraine agenda, at the proposal of the United States, there was a principled agreement to hold a top-level bilateral meeting in the coming days, which means a meeting between presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

Together with our American colleagues, we are about to start working on the specific parameters of this meeting and its venue. Basically, the venue has also been coordinated, and we will communicate on this point a little later.
...
Next week was suggested as a possible time frame [for holding the meeting], but since the effort to prepare for this important event is only just beginning for both parties, it is hard to say how long the preparations will take. That said, the option of holding this meeting sometime next week was on the table, and we hold quite a positive view in this regard.


This U.S. side has confirmed the news of a summit which may potentially already take place next week.

The urgency with which the U.S. side requested the summit tells us that the Ukrainian army is near to a breakdown and total defeat.

It seems that President Putin has offered Trump a big deal - one that goes far beyond the rather annoying side issue of Ukraine.

This could could include offers of new agreements on nuclear arms restrictions and other questions of global interest. But Trump's interests are mostly driven by their economic impact. A Russian offer to allow for huge investment opportunities in Russia for U.S. companies on preferential grounds might have been the real winner. Additionally sanctions could be lifted and air-traffic between the countries could resume. Both sides could profit from these points.

But before these big things can happen the Ukraine issue must be put aside.

Russia's demands in this regard have been named for some time. A simple ceasefire at the line of contact is not sufficient. Russia wants full control of the four oblast (Donetzk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaparoizhia) which were already included into the Russian constitution. It wants a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO and that it will lose the military support it currently has from the West.

Trump might be willing to concede those points. A majority of Ukrainians wants to end the war:

In Gallup’s most recent poll of Ukraine — conducted in early July — 69% say they favor a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, compared with 24% who support continuing to fight until victory.

Even Zelenski now seems to agree with them (machine translation):

"Yesterday, various potential formats of meetings for peace at the level of leaders in the near future were discussed: two bilateral formats, one trilateral. Ukraine is not afraid of meetings and expects the same bold approach from the Russian side. It's time to end the war, " the Ukrainian president wrote.

But warmongers in Washington, in Europe and in Ukraine will try to sabotage anything that may lead to peace.

There are also smaller steps that could be sold as the success of a summit. A pause of long range drone attacks would be a noticeable though minimal concession that could be beneficial for both sides.

But overall I am not optimistic about an outcome.

It will be difficult to even establish an agenda for the meeting. Secretary of State Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov will need some time to haggle over the details. If the summit proceeds it might well end without results.

The whole thing could be a ploy. Trump may tell Putin to surrender and, as Putin will certainly not do so, use the summit to declare that Russia is guilty and must be punished by more sanction and other means. U.S. support for Ukraine would then resume.

It would not change the inevitable outcome but prolong the war for probably more than a year.

Posted by b on August 7, 2025 at 15:19 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/08/t ... /#comments

******

Is peace and truce near?
August 7, 2025
Rybar

Is peace and truce near?
Less than a day has passed since the meeting between US Presidential Envoy Whitkoff and Vladimir Putin, and the first results have begun to appear. Bloomberg reports that Trump told Zelensky and the Europeans the day before that Putin could start peace talks “ in exchange for discussing the issue of exchanging territories .”

Overall, the US President was optimistic about the chances of a ceasefire in Ukraine after the meeting between Witkoff and Putin. The Russian President himself, when asked about a meeting with Donald Trump , said that such an event could be organized in neutral countries such as the UAE.

Interesting details were presented by the Polish portal Onet
▪️Russia and the so-called Ukraine will conclude not peace, but a truce.

▪️It envisages the de facto recognition of Russian territorial achievements (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years).

▪️Most anti-Russian sanctions are lifted.

▪️In the long term, there is a return to imports of Russian gas and oil.

▪️There are no guarantees that NATO will not expand.

▪️No one is promising to suspend military support for Ukraine.

It is important to understand: this publication is Polish, and far from first-rate, so the level of trust in it is appropriate. However, some points fully reflect the actual position of the United States.

Recognition of the liberated territories by Russia is our demand, enshrined in the Constitution. But the Americans allegedly included an option to review this point after 49 or 99 years.

The option proposed by Witkoff actually provides for a ceasefire, i.e. something like the "Minsk agreements". This option cannot be called optimal even taking into account all the current realities "on the ground".

At the same time, there are no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO, nor any promises regarding the suspension of military aid from the West. That is, all that is currently being proposed is a temporary truce, and it is not pointless to seriously consider these conditions at this stage.

Another issue is that the goal of all recent events is to arrange a personal meeting with Trump. Given how quickly he changes his decisions in a huckstering manner, Kiev and London are viewing all this with some apprehension. So there will be a lot of information leaks and tales to change the background of the negotiations .

https://rybar.ru/mir-peremirie-blizko/

Google Translator

*****

So, They Agree To Meet ...

... possibly (or could) next week.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the United Arab Emirates could be a “suitable” location for a meeting with his US counterpart, Donald Trump. An in-person meeting between the two presidents could take place as early as next week, according to the Kremlin. Putin made the remarks to journalists on Thursday, following his talks in Moscow with UAE leader Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Asked about the location for a summit with Trump, Putin said Russia has “many friends” who are ready to help, and pointed to the UAE as an option. “One of our friends is the president of the United Arab Emirates. I think we will decide, but this would be one of the quite suitable places,” he said. According to Western media reports, aides to the US president began preparing for a possible summit immediately after Witkoff’s visit to Moscow.

We'll see what comes of it, but Russia's conditions are well known and proverbial "realities on the ground" speak for themselves. As even Steven Bryan admits:

For sure this is a very big development, but it carries plenty of risk for all sides, but especially for Trump. Trump will need to control Zelensky, a difficult task because Zelensky has nowhere to go as he cannot easily make significant concessions. Washington allegedly wants to get rid of him because he is an obstacle to a deal, so we can't rule out a melodrama involving Zelensky's status.

He correctly points out that Europe also is a spoiler (or rather a shitter) in this arrangement, because as I repeat ad nauseam--Russia and the US must talk due to both countries' geopolitical status, Europe is irrelevant in terms of power balance and is an object, not a subject of international relations.

UPDATE: as expected a hysteria started in comments. Here is Mr. Ushakov verbatim: (Video at link.)

Quote: "The American side presented an offer which seems acceptable to us"(c) I repeat again--the main topic there will be not even 404, it is strategic stability.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/08 ... -meet.html

If Putin again falls for Western lies(at the behest of an oligarchic faction) then shame on him, but I think he may have finally learned that lesson, the hard way. I do not expect anything substantive concerning Ukraine, just Trump blustering and Putin doing the 'performative jaw-jaw'.(thanks Roger Boyd for that.) But anything that improves strategic stability is welcome.

******

Until next week
August 8, 8:46

Image

1. Trump and the State Department confirmed last night that a meeting between Putin and Trump will likely take place as early as next week.

2. Trump also denied the rumor that Trump allegedly demands that Putin meet with the cocaine Fuhrer. The State Department also denied that such a condition for the meeting existed.
3. The most likely venue for the meeting is the UAE statute. The options of Saudi Arabia and Turkey are somewhat less likely. Europe is not being considered as a platform for negotiations. There will be no Europeans at the negotiations.
4. Trump again stated that he is "disappointed with Putin." This is good. It would be worse if they started praising him in the style of Yeltsin in the 90s. The task of the Russian Federation is to disappoint the West.
5. The military actions are currently proceeding as usual without any particular restrictions. Given the current trends, it is the West that needs to hurry, since the situation at the front is clearly not developing in favor of the Nazi regime in Kiev.

P.S. "Britain must be invited to peace talks to stop Trump and Putin hounding Zelensky. A European power must be in the room” to ensure Ukraine is not forced to accept a bad deal. (c) former British Defense Secretary Wallace

Why are you hounding?!

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10001724.html

"Ukraine" is not needed
August 8, 13:09

Image

Mash reports that the hotel "Ukraine", located in the city center on Ushakov Square, is undergoing rebranding in Sevastopol.

The sign has already been removed. The new owner does not need "Ukraine". We are waiting for a new name.

Image

Not far from the hotel, by the way, there is a retro cinema "Ukraine".
In principle, since 2014, neither the hotel nor the cinema have been particularly in the way and they have been preserved rather out of habit.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10001996.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14412
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Location: Turtle Island
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Aug 09, 2025 12:34 pm

"There is no other option": Ukraine and the mobilization
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 08/09/2025

Image

“According to a survey, only a quarter of Ukrainians want to fight Russia to the bitter end, revealing the plummeting public confidence in the possibility of achieving victory. After more than three years of war, nearly 70% of Ukrainians favor ending the conflict as soon as possible through negotiations, marking an almost complete shift in the will to fight from 2022,” wrote the British newspaper The Telegraph yesterday, whose editorial line does not differ much from that of one of its former columnists and correspondents, Boris Johnson, one of the architects of the idea of fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian. The apparent surprise shown by the media at the Ukrainian population's unwillingness to continue dying on the front lines can only be explained by a lack of interest in understanding reality beyond the official rhetoric. The press, which has followed almost without exception the maxim of considering every word coming from Moscow as propaganda and everything coming from kyiv as absolute truth that requires no journalistic verification, has stuck to the rhetoric of national unity, without even pausing to assess the results of polls conducted by Western sources. Already in 2024, the Gallup panel produced data that openly contrasted the triumphalism of the state, which continued to insist on its plan for victory, sought long-range Western weapons to defeat Russia in its rear, and refused to consider the possibility of a resolution to the conflict that did not involve recovering at least part of the territories lost since the Russian invasion in 2022.

Events have taken a strange turn since Donald Trump came to power. Trump, with rhetoric of peace, has waged war against Iran, increased US support for Israel in its most cruel phase against the Palestinian population, and, at the same time, boasted of his abilities as a peacemaker and proposed achieving a quick peace in this "Biden" war, which "never should have started." The political process has gone through phases of serious accusations against Zelensky—including that of having started the war, necessarily false given that the conflict began five years before Volodymyr Zelensky was elected president of Ukraine—threats to abandon Ukraine to its fate, suspension of arms and intelligence supplies, accusations against Moscow, and even nuclear threats. Many things have changed since the latest results of the 2024 Gallup poll were published, including the coveted permission to use Western weapons against Russian territory within its internationally recognized borders and the increase in the mutual air war in the Russian rear, but the trend shown by the data has not. The media's astonishment at learning that 69% of respondents support "seeking peace as soon as possible," a negotiation that would necessarily involve territorial compromises, and that only 24% are willing to continue fighting until the war is won, stems from the dissonance between what can be observed daily and what the media reports, generally repeating the official data and opinions of the Ukrainian government.

The cold statistical data must be supplemented by the stories we see every day. In one of them, a well-known military activist provided the data the government prefers to avoid, estimating the net loss of Ukrainian army personnel at more than 20,000 per month, taking into account casualties (dead, wounded, deserters) and recruitment and volunteer recruitment. Just this week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces boasted that almost half of the volunteers are foreigners, an implicit admission that the flow of Ukrainians enlisting voluntarily has fallen precipitously since 2022. Just as at that time, with the nationalist wave brought about by the invasion, the flow of volunteers was fundamentally national and ideological, people seeking to fight the Russian enemy until final victory, it is now known that the arrival of foreigners occurs primarily through companies that manage the services of mercenaries or soldiers of fortune. The fact that every day we see more images of people fleeing from recruiting agents, that the possibility of moving their work to mobile offices is being considered, and that there is even approval for Russian attacks on mobilization points is an essential indicator for understanding the real state of the war and the morale of the troops and the population. Monitoring these aspects makes it unsurprising that, since 2022, the proportion of people who want to continue fighting or advocate for a quick peace even if it involves concessions has reversed.

“Ukrainian voices must be listened to,” commented American journalist Mark Ames, adding, “Except when they don't want to continue dying en masse for Brussels and Washington.” His assessment points to an important fact: the media's willingness to turn the official narrative into the general opinion in the country and a refusal to listen to those sectors of the population that contradict it. And the Ukrainian government continues working to maintain control of the discourse and ensure that any deviation from the path by the press is countered by a campaign to prove that the accusations are merely the result of Russian disinformation or the widespread use of Russian narratives . This week, until Donald Trump's diplomatic push broke with the routine, that has been the work of the Ukrainian authorities following the article published by the Financial Times , one of the Western media outlets with the best sources in the Ukrainian establishment .

“‘The mobilization shouldn’t be a shock for people,’ Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky told reporters in June, adding that recruiting centers ‘shouldn’t allow such shameful incidents to occur,’” the outlet quoted the Ukrainian officer as saying. Syrsky “promised greater transparency and to punish officers involved in cases where men were illegally recruited into the army. Recruiting centers have also received a 50-page manual highlighting rules of courtesy and methods of de-escalation in their interactions with citizens,” the article continued, willing to believe the statements of Ukrainian military authorities, who have acted in the same way since the war moved to the trenches and a trip to the front became a death sentence, drying up the flow of volunteers. Even those media outlets that have sided with Ukraine and are desperate to trust Kyiv’s good intentions are forced to face reality from time to time.

“But more such videos have since emerged, including one showing a man being pushed into an unmarked van in Odessa, forcing new Defense Minister Denis Shmyhal to answer questions from lawmakers last month. He insisted the mobilization was proceeding “as planned” and stated that ending cases of forced mobilization would require “quality management in the military, trust in commanders and military leaders.” At the same time, resistance and even violence against recruitment officers is growing. A tense standoff erupted in the central Ukrainian city of Vinnitsa on Friday when around 80 people gathered late in the afternoon near a stadium to demand the release of recently mobilized men who had been taken there. According to local police, some of the protesters tried to break into the stadium,” the outlet admits, estimating that more than 500 investigations have been carried out for “obstructing the army’s activities in the first six months of this year, compared to 200 cases in the same period last year, according to the Attorney General's Office."

Organized resistance is a new development, joining individual resistance, inherent to the mandatory recruitment that has prevailed in the country since the imposition of martial law and general mobilization. This week, among the videos that have caused a stir is that of an Odessa man fleeing on a bicycle from the officers who were chasing him in a vehicle trying to mobilize him. As if in an obstacle course, the man, knocked off his bicycle, continued running until he distracted the officers and climbed into the vehicle of another citizen, who helped him escape. The example, which under different circumstances might have been somewhat comical, reflects the desperation of those willing to risk their lives, or even lose them, to avoid being sent to the front.

“We understand the situation and know what needs to be done,” Oleksandr Syrsky stated this week, continuing to stick to the usual propaganda line about the Russian Federation's massive casualties, although he admits that the Russian army's net monthly toll is around 9,000 soldiers thanks to conscription. “Our opponent will increase the pressure. Our common task is to prevent them from achieving their goals. We will achieve that goal,” he added in statements in which he insisted that “there is no other option” and, as The Kyiv Independent headlined , “Ukraine must mobilize to counter the Russian buildup.” Openly questioned by the troops even before his appointment, overly Soviet for some nationalists' liking, lacking particular charisma, and perceived as Zelensky's yes-man , a man chosen for the post precisely for being unable to refuse the president's plans, Syrsky's word is not enough to stem the critical national and international trend toward conscription.

Ukraine is not used to headlines like “Pushed into vans, puncturing tires: Ukrainians resist military service. Kiev's top brass under fire for violent recruitment practices,” which it has had to read in friendly media such as the Financial Times , which has provoked a response from political authorities as well, who need to maintain an impeccable image internationally, a basis for being able to continue demanding the delivery of weapons to continue fighting for as long as necessary .

Responding to the Financial Times ' harsh report and the growing distribution of images showing large groups of people confronting recruiters, Mikhail Podolyak wrote that "Mobilization is one of the most complex social processes." His line is clear and always points to the same destination: Russia is always to blame. “It poses not only organizational challenges, but above all, psychological ones. Naturally, people don't want war, neither in Ukraine nor in any other country. And it's clear why mobilization has become a favorite theme of enemy propaganda,” he wrote, insisting, despite news and images from Ukrainian residents filming their fellow citizens fleeing the draft circulating on Western social media, that “Russia invests enormous resources in destabilizing Ukraine from within, undermining social cohesion and fueling fear and disillusionment. Russian intelligence services monitor the Ukrainian information space daily, detect and amplify scandals, and exaggerate problems. Most of the most notorious stories turn out to be disinformation: narratives planted and spread by bot networks and influencers. At the same time, real violations that require law enforcement intervention are not ignored.” It's all Russian disinformation, from images of Ukrainians fleeing other Ukrainians to Gallup polls reflecting the Ukrainian population's desire to achieve peace as quickly as possible rather than continue to die on the front lines.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/09/no-ha ... ilizacion/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
China has officially refused to stop buying Russian oil and will respond if the US trade war against China intensifies. China considers discounted Russian oil to be a very profitable boost to its economy and is not going to adapt to American desires.

By maintaining the ability to sell oil to China and India, Russia maintains the necessary windows for selling its oil abroad and loses only on market fluctuations and a slightly increased discount, which varies depending on the international situation, but allows it to bypass the main sanctions against the energy sector by simply transferring part of its exports into the shadows.

***

Colonelcassad
The identity of the shooter who seized the premises of a McDonald's restaurant in the Ukrainian city of Cherkassy has become known

. This is a serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who only signed a "youth contract" in May. Let us recall that in the advertisement of military service for young people, the Armed Forces of Ukraine focused on the opportunity to buy a lot of burgers, but they deceived him. So he came for them.

***

Colonelcassad
Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged storage and launch sites for aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as temporary deployment points for Ukrainian formations and foreign mercenaries in 142 districts.

Air defense systems have shot down a Su-27 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force , two guided aerial bombs, two US-made HIMARS multiple launch rockets and 457 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

***

Colonelcassad
0:02
Putin presented Steve Witkoff with the Order of Lenin for high-ranking CIA employee Yuliana Gallina at a meeting .

Her 21-year-old son Michael Gloss died in 2024 while fighting in the Second World War on the Russian side as part of the 98th Airborne Division (which stormed Chasov Yar). He was posthumously awarded the Order of Courage.

Gallina is the CIA's deputy director for digital innovation.

It turns out that the Order of Lenin is still in use here.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

(Nice...)

*******

Negotiations Fever Strikes Again as Trump's "Deadline" Hits Midnight
Simplicius
Aug 08, 2025

Another week, another new ‘peace summit’ shrouded in the spume of uncertainties, exaggerations, illusions and delusions alike. Without rehashing every irrelevant detail, we can summarize the developments in a few short breaths: Putin and Trump allegedly made plans to meet, but rumors suggest Trump’s agreement is contingent on Putin also meeting Zelensky, whereas Putin has just stated again—unequivocally—that a Zelensky meeting is “very far away”, given that many conditions would first have to be met: (Video at link.)

Trump, afterwards, quickly denied the Zelensky claim, throwing even more confusion into the mix. Putin aide Ushakov tried to clear some of it up:
(Video at link.)

Polish outlet Onet made buzz with a claimed ‘leak’ of the US peace offer, which included de facto recognition of captured territory, lifting of sanctions, but no promises against Ukraine joining NATO. However, this was quickly shot down by one of Zelensky’s advisors:

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Others now believe the Putin-Trump meeting will again focus more on US-Russian bilateral relations, rather than specifically on the Ukraine war. As always to front-load the information field, other outlets streamed out all sorts of ancillary rumors, including that Russia has agreed to an ‘air truce’ as a kind of gesture of goodwill, which would put a stop to both drone and missile strikes against Ukraine now carried out nightly.

Though the likelihood is high that most such rumors are fake, it would not be a particularly unrealistic maneuver for Russia in this case. It’s a very low cost way to signal political goodwill while simultaneously restocking drones and missiles for a brief period. Not striking Ukraine for a week or two would not have major effect on the overall timeline of Ukraine’s military incapacitation, but would allow Russia to replenish stocks so that when the ceasefire inevitably ‘breaks down’, Russia can resume with another major round of hefty attacks without digging too deeply into stockpiles.

We can understand the latest impetus for another big PR summit as follows: Trump needed a way to rescue himself from writing checks his mouth can’t cash. His blustery sanctions “deadline” is coming up, and after crunching the numbers and toeing the waters, he realized it’s not going to work out the way he planned.

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Even India began resisting in ‘alarming’ ways, highlighting a critical risk to US-Indian relations:

Almost immediately came the news that Russia and India signed a document on expanding industrial and technological cooperation-such a response to Trump. In addition, India immediately suspended the purchase of six additional basic patrol aircraft P-8I, today.

As such, it’s probable that Trump needed a way to rescue himself from his own self-imposed ‘deadline’ trap and the way to do that was to generate another spectacle that could be sold as “major progress” by verbal-equilibrists like Marco Rubio.

It’s difficult to take Trump’s sincerity seriously, though, given that his admin just posted a new bulletin which names Russia as an ‘extraordinary threat’ to the United States:

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https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/ ... ederation/

Trump: "I have received additional information from various senior officials on, among other things, the actions of the Government of the Russian Federation with respect to the situation in Ukraine. After considering this additional information, among other things, I find that the national emergency described in Executive Order 14066 continues and that the actions and policies of the Government of the Russian Federation continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States."

Such hostility certainly does not evoke a sense of simpatico reconciliation.

Both sides strive to string along their own politically expedient interests; in Russia’s case, it’s important to convey the savor of peace-seeking and political agreeability while continuing to fulfill geopolitical and military imperatives; in the US’ case, it’s about up-keeping Trump’s aura of power and leadership, both for his own ego’s sake, and to placate political opponents, critics, and neocons alike who seek either a ‘tougher’ stance on Russia, or at least the ending of the war on terms favorable to Ukraine and the Western deep state—which is to say, an indefinite ceasefire which allows Ukraine military continuity, to restock and rebuild for an eventual round two.

The only dash of hope to the contrary of the above, rather pessimistic, appraisal was Rubio’s adjacent statement that the US has finally begun to “better understand” the contours of Russia’s chief demands: (Video at link.)

But it’s easy to argue this still means nothing given the fact that some of Russia’s demands are complete non-starters for Ukraine, particularly demilitarization and presumably the withdrawal from the entirety of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, which includes their capital cities; thus, it’s hard to imagine things going anywhere at all.

That said, Ushakov’s comment that the US has made some offers ‘acceptable’ to Russia is interesting, though this may pertain to more the bilateral US-Russian rapprochement rather than SMO-specific concessions.

One could reasonably argue that part of the new upswell in negotiations fever has something to do with the fact that three or four major Ukrainian cities—depending how you count them—are close to being checkmated: Pokrovsk-Mirnograd, Konstantinovka, and Kupyansk, with perhaps Seversk not far behind. If their fronts collapse at close intervals, it could spell major political doom in Ukraine, a situation which understandably requires rescue by diplomatic means, as we’re seeing now.

So, will Trump “extend” his so-called deadline for Russian sanctions based on some kind of ‘fruitful’ meeting with Putin or will he cave to pressure either way? Additional front-running articles are claiming Trump will launch the ‘secondary sanctions’ either way, but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything if they’re short-lived and designed to appease neocons, before being quickly reversed, as has so often happened with Trump’s many impulsive demarches.

One thing is for certain, if Trump and Putin meet, Trump will no longer enjoy the excuse of not understanding Russian demands—he and his administration have played dumb for too long when it comes to that. Putin will relay his demands as directly as possible, with no more middlemen or telephone games—and Trump will lose his cover of ‘blissful ignorance’, and will be forced to act decisively against Zelensky and Ukraine, if he actually wants to move the needle toward ending the conflict.


A new CNN piece gives five potential outcomes for the war’s end:

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https://archive.ph/81uMw

The first:

1. Putin agrees to an unconditional ceasefire

They denote this one as “highly unlikely”, explaining that Russia is finally turning its gains into strategic advantages, which gives it no incentive to call it quits without good reason:

It’s improbable that Putin would agree to a ceasefire in which the front lines stay as they are – the United States, Europe and Ukraine already demanded such a pause in May, under the threat of sanctions, and Russia rejected it.

The Kremlin is currently turning incremental gains on the front line into strategic advantages and would see no point in stopping this progress now, as it reaches its height. Not even the threat of secondary sanctions against China and India – who appear resistant to US pressure – will change that immediate military calculus for the remainder of the summer. Until October, at least, Putin will want to fight because he is winning.


The second possibility:

2. Pragmatism and more talks

This one is bizarre, and appears designed merely to deflect attention away from the more dire and realistic outcome. They explain that Putin will fight until the winter freeze, admitting that Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, and Kupyansk may all fall by then. The problem is, I already explained previously Russia makes some of its greatest gains during winter, when Bakhmut, Avdeevka, and the entire SMO in general were all launched.

3. Ukraine somehow weathers the two years ahead

This is the first somewhat reasonably realistic one, though still not convincing—though at least now they’re trying:

In this scenario, US and European military aid to Ukraine helps them minimize concessions on the front line in the coming months, and leads Putin to seek to talk, as his military have yet again failed to deliver. Pokrovsk may fall and other eastern Ukrainian strongholds may be threatened, but Ukraine could see the Russian advance slow, as it has before, and the Kremlin could even feel the bite of sanctions and an overheating economy.

European powers have already formulated advanced plans for a “reassurance force” to be deployed to Ukraine as part of security guarantees. These tens of thousands of European NATO troops could sit around Kyiv and other major cities, providing logistical and intelligence help to Ukraine as it rebuilds, and create a sufficient deterrent that Moscow decides to leave the front lines as they are. This is the very best Ukraine can hope for.


After dispensing with the cope, they arrive at the most plausible outcome:

4. Catastrophe for Ukraine and NATO

Putin could correctly see the cracks in Western unity after a summit with Trump that improves US-Russian relations but leaves Ukraine to fend for itself. Europe could do their utmost to back Kyiv, but fail to tip the balance without American backup. Putin could see small gains in the east of Ukraine transform into the slow rout of Ukrainian forces in the flat, open terrain between the Donbass and the central cities of Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and the capital. Ukrainian defenses could prove weak, and Kyiv’s military manpower crisis turns into a political disaster when Zelensky demands wider mobilization to prop up the country’s defense.

Kyiv’s safety looks in peril again. Putin’s forces move forwards. Europe’s powers assess it would be better to fight Russia in Ukraine than later inside actual European Union territory. But Europe’s leaders ultimately lack the political mandate to join a war for land inside Ukraine. Putin moves forward. NATO fails to deliver a unified response. This is Europe’s nightmare, but is already the end of a sovereign Ukraine.


Not to leave their readers in total despair, they throw in a laughable sop as the fifth option, to sandwich reality between two kinder delusions:

5. Disaster for Putin: a repeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan

They write that Russia could face a repeat of the Afghanistan ‘rout’ after economic and societal pressures build up and Putin faces revolt at home. Well, it’s perhaps a very remote possibility, but certainly not any time in the near to medium term future. Perhaps by 2030 or beyond—but one must ask themselves: what kind of domestic situation will Ukraine be in by then? Secondly, unlike in Afghanistan, any Russian cessation of hostilities would still see massive gains of new territories incorporated into Russia forevermore.



Another new CNN article makes an interesting admission, which segues us into the battlefield coverage portion of the report. They confirm my own theory from last week, that Russia’s recent targeting of the Korabel island of Kherson could likely be a setup for a Russian landing on there, which would be a springboard for a future full-on recapture of Kherson city proper.

The capture of Kherson city and region…remains one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s main goals for the conflict, and the renewed pressure to separate Korabel from the rest of the city has raised concerns Russian forces might seek to bombard and then land upon the flat terrain in the weeks ahead.

A reminder, here is the besieged island which serves as gateway to the city itself:

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It is now being entirely evacuated, and Russians have been bombing the only bridge to the island (there is one other one, but it is a railway-only bridge).

They have hit this Ostrovsky bridge again earlier today, but miraculously it continues to stand: (Video at link.)

There are now even reports that Ukraine moved a Patriot system there to intercept Russian Su-34s flying bombing sorties to the bridge. Earlier in the day, a Ukrainian report claimed such an Su-34 was even shot down, but Russian sources clarified that several Patriots were fired but did not hit anything.

There are continued claims that Ukraine’s grouping here is gutted and being sectionally decimated by Russian drones, which—if true—would seem to suggest a future operation could be viewed as feasible by Russian command.

There were no major captures these past few days, but Russian forces continued to put the stranglehold on Pokrovsk and Kupyansk. In Pokrovsk, Rybar has geolocated advanced Russian DRGs to the city center, though much of the lower half of the city is essentially a big gray zone:

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There seems an odd situation around the entire Pokrovsk region that we haven’t quite seen before, where Russian DRGs are operating particularly far behind enemy lines, which suggests very thinned out Ukrainian defenses. This is also the case north of Mirnograd, where Russian DRGs were reportedly spotted as far as Zolotai Kolodyoz (Golden Well), which as you can see is far beyond the current front:

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This was corroborated on some Ukrainian channels:

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There are also continued reports of Russian infiltration of Rodinske but nothing concrete yet. (Video at link.)

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There are other reports from top Ukrainian military channels concerning the situations further north.

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Top Ukrainian analyst Myroshnykov comments on the deterioration of the Seversk front:

The situation in the Siversk area is escalating.

After losing Verkhniokamyanske as well, the enemy has approached the city to a distance of 2 km from the southeast.

In the Serebrianske forestry, the enemy is gradually pushing out our units. And this strongly affects Siversk.

Fighting is still ongoing in Hryhorivka, but there is almost no control over either the territory or the situation.

If this village falls, the defense of the southeastern part of the Serebrianske forestry will become impossible.

And then the enemy will concentrate on capturing the villages of Serebrianka and Dronivka, which will form pincers from the north and east of Siversk.

In Konstantinovka they report the situation is “critical” but not catastrophic despite that AFU forces are in “semi-encirclement”:


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In the meantime, Kupyansk now looks like this, with Russian forces slowly enveloping the city and close to cutting one of the final main arteries to it from the western side:

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You’ll note there is another main road that goes south, but it runs into Russian held territory. Therefore the only truly free MSR is the one running west. Some reports have even claimed Russian DRGs have likewise reached city center, though this is much more speculative at this point:

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A few last items:

Some Ukrainian reports claim Russia has seen an uptick in Su-57 usage over Ukraine, with the planes reportedly even flying directly over the front into Ukraine air defense zones:

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This comes amidst rumors that the Su-57 is being equipped with Zircon hypersonic missiles:

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https://militarywatchmagazine.com/artic ... con-mach-9

I say “rumors” because the MOD reportedly announced the Su-57s are being equipped with some “hypersonic” weapon, but did not specify what it was. In truth, some new air-launched hypersonic missile was being designed specifically for the Su-57, and many people merely assumed it would be a ‘modified’ Zircon, but no one yet knows for sure what it is.

Personally, I don’t see how it would be the Zircon given that it’s a massive ship-launched 30-foot+ missile and the Su-57’s internal bays are 14ft long. That would presumably mean it would need to be carried outside the plane, which would negate its stealth features.



Frankfurter Rundschau interestingly notes that the new Russian Geran drone is essentially the T-34 of the new war:

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https://www.fr.de/politik/ukraine-krieg ... 64764.html

❕ New jet "Geran" drones — the legendary T-34 on the modern battlefield, report German media

The Frankfurter Rundschau notes that Russia is using new "Geran" jet drones on the front lines, which paralyze Ukrainian air defenses and sow panic among the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to the authors, the role of these drones could become as iconic for the conflict as the legendary T-34 was in World War II.

The new turbojet "Gerans" reach speeds of up to 600 km/h and fly at altitudes up to 9,000 meters. They are launched simultaneously with turboprop analogs and decoys to completely disorient the enemy's air defenses. The number of drones used in a single raid is constantly increasing.

"Russia will continue strikes until it achieves the complete destruction of Ukrainian air defenses," the publication emphasizes.


https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/neg ... ikes-again

*******
From a Uke outlet:

In Volina, the NATO forces attacked a TCC car: one attacker was already captured
08 August 2025, 13:57Read also in Russian

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Illustrative photo: from the hidden jerels

Near the village of Solovichi, Kovel district of the Volinsk region, the attack attacked the service transport of the TCC and SP. The incident occurred on the 7th sickle at approximately 16:30, just before the notification hour

Having informed Volinsky regional TCC and joint venture about this , it transmitsRegioNews .

According to previous data, one of the local residents was willing to present documents and tried to enter. At this point, another man, who introduced himself as the headman of the village, knocked the TCC onto the hood of the car and smashed his forehead with a stone. Before the conflict, there was a woman who also beat the transport department.

Another participant in the attack used a metal object (probably a wrench), damaged the side windows of the car and struck the hand with water. Over the past year, service vehicles have been blocked by other vehicles, due to vandalism.

About 10 people sharpened the car and a number of soldiers hit it, crossing the robots of the military and police.

Law enforcement entered data about the incident into the Unified Register of Pre-trial Investigations.

One of the participants was detained, the other was previously qualified under Article 296 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine (hooliganism).

It is expected that from the 1st of June 2025, all security officers of TCC and SP will be required to use body cameras at the hour of checking documents or serving subpoenas. All activities can be recorded on video, and in case of disruption of this order, disciplinary responsibility is transferred.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/volyn/175 ... g_rewarded

Vinnytsia riot against the CCC: what the authorities and Ukrainians should think about
August 06, 2025, 11:13Read also in Russian

Responding only to the consequences of mistakes – both by the government and society – only pushes Ukraine further into a large-scale crisis.

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illustrative photo: from open sources

The full-scale war in Ukraine continues, and the process of general mobilization continues as the main element of replenishing the Armed Forces of Ukraine with fresh blood. It continues, let's be honest, in difficult conditions. Recently, the number of real, not invented by pro-Russian or directly Russian Internet manipulators, conflicts between employees of territorial recruitment centers, who are engaged in mobilization, and ordinary citizens has increased. And this problem is not linear, but requires a comprehensive approach. For which, it seems, no one is ready and does not even think about it.

Vinnytsia's allusion to Santiago

Over the weekend, a scandal erupted in Ukrainian online media in Vinnytsia, where some local residents decided to rescue other local residents from the TCK officers, who were being held at one of the local stadiums, which became the place of detention of these people.

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Of course, many immediately drew a scathing parallel with another stadium, the Nacional in the Chilean capital Santiago. For those who are not in the know, let us explain - after the coup d'état in this Latin American country, the victors, the junta led by General Augusto Pinochet, set up an internment camp at the Nacional for Chilean citizens hostile to them.

These two situations, of course, are fundamentally different. We don't have a coup, and the people who were held at the stadium weren't enemies of the current government, and it didn't smell like internment. But, as you understand, that didn't stop such a parallel from appearing.

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In response, no less harsh statements were made - not from the authorities or representatives of the local CCC, but from citizens with the same attitude, who resorted to insults like "mother's cherries" or "civilian creatures", and to more radical appeals - in particular, that "democracy has gone mad" (the original had an obscene verb).

In short, as has been happening recently, both sides of this undeclared conflict have remained steadfast in their positions, as have the state/military structures, for whom it is much easier to do so, because they can simply not comment on anything (as in the case of the scandalous bill on the destruction of the independence of the NABU/SAP). And in this status quo lies the main problem of modern Ukraine.

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Bukovel and the empty villages around it

Because the war continues. And it will continue - it is not known how long. And Ukrainian servicemen are dying - even if they try not to talk about it, it doesn't matter, sooner or later some Donald Trump will take and publish some data. Accurate or not, but data that makes us remember that war is not only about heroes, feats and "movements". It is also about deaths. The deaths of those people who need to be compensated.

And with this, as we see, the situation is getting worse every day. We keep looking around the corner, how quickly the economy of the aggressor country is falling there – but the situation with our mobilization is no better. And you can say a lot about the fact that all these stories with "busification" are fake and Russian IPSO, but in reality the situation is much more complicated and deeper.

For example, the other day a video appeared of the road to Bukovel – which was clogged with cars and turned into an endless traffic jam (a similar situation was observed this summer, according to local residents, in the area of another Ukrainian resort – Shatskie Ozer), in which not only women were driving. And at the same time, in the villages of Ivano-Frankivsk region, where the pretentious resort is located, there are practically no men of mobilization age left. What could be the reaction of local citizens who see such frankly different pictures of wartime? Of course, what.

Unpleasant questions for everyone

This is the essence of the current problem. The fact that there has been no full-fledged and adequate mobilization process since 2022. Then, at the beginning of a full-scale war, territorial recruitment centers rescued crowds of volunteers who did not need to be caught on the streets. But even then, the CCC did not draw any conclusions - in particular, they did not take into account those who came on their own, but did not approach the Armed Forces of Ukraine at that moment. There are more than one or two cases when people knocked on the thresholds of the CCC in the spring of 2022, where they were almost driven home - and then stopped striving to get into the army. And either turned into "evasive draftees", or ended up in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but already in positions such as spokesman / press secretary, etc.

Why did this happen? Why did society's attitude change? Why did those who in 2022 simply go to war, no matter where, in 2024 and even more so in 2025, start looking for, let's be honest, the safest possible place? These are the questions we need to look for answers to. And there are a lot of them, these questions. For example, did the frankly anti-people change of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine affect the motivation of Ukrainians? Each of you will find at least one military man who commented on Syrsky's appointment in, to put it mildly, negative tones. Why?

Where and in what conditions will we live?

Perhaps everyone – the authorities first of all, as well as citizens, both pro- and anti-TCK-minded – should move away from fanning hysteria around the consequences and start fighting the causes? Because, on the one hand, mobilization is needed in any case, at least in order not to lose the entire territory up to the Dnieper (and even this bridgehead, convenient for defense, will have to be held by someone, because in the Kherson region the occupiers from time to time try to regain the right-bank part, lost back in 2022). But on the other hand – the more incidents like the one in Vinnytsia, the stronger the flames of hatred for the TCK (and for "civilians" too, yes) will be fanned from behind the curb. And sooner or later, if this issue is not resolved – there will be an explosion that will blow Ukraine to pieces.

Then it will turn out that all these years of desperate and heroic resistance, all these sacrifices, which are already many, were in vain. What will all the participants in the process say then? Or will they continue to blame their opponents in the usual manner - they say, all this is exclusively because of them?

And here no patriotism is needed - just a practical approach. Where will you and your people live? In which country? And - under what conditions? It's about "democracy being fucked up". Because if Ukraine wins (doesn't lose), but turns into an autocracy a la Russia - it won't be a victory. The essence of Ukraine's existence is precisely to not just give Ukrainians a home with their, our Ukrainian language, but also to make this home as democratic as possible. Because a Ukrainian dictatorship, it will only at first glance be a better option than a Russian one. But in reality...

However, the war, let us emphasize once again, continues. And we have to live with this. And with this we build today and tomorrow. It is desirable to build so that in the day after tomorrow there are no parallels with the Chilean stadium or even more unpleasant examples of world history. And at the same time – so that there are no hints of the final of the First Liberation Games. Yes, this is not an easy task, a very difficult one. But no one said that it would be easy. "Easy" was before, before the full-scale war. Now we have what we have. And we must at least not worsen the situation.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/articles/17544 ... rayintsyam

Google Translator

******
MQM-172 Arrowhead
August 9, 11:02

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2022. Aha-ha, these Russians can't make a drone themselves, they take the Iranian "Shahed" and call it "Geranium".
2025. The US completely copied the Russian "Geranium" and called it MQM-172 Arrowhead.

The number of relatives of the "Shahed" dad continues to increase. But our "Geranium" is legally licensed + significantly modified, and this is some kind of illegitimate American bastard.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10003590.html

Putin and Trump to hold talks in Alaska on August 15
August 9, 5:57

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Putin and Trump to hold talks in Alaska on August 15

The meeting between Trump and Putin will take place on August 15 in Alaska. Preparations for the meeting are already underway. Both sides + the Alaska governor confirmed preparations for the meeting. The next meeting is to take place in the Russian Federation. The Americans have already been invited. In fact, the parties are going to exchange direct visits without the participation of third parties. There is simply no place for Europe and Ukraine in this scheme, and Europe thus remains outside the negotiations, which is what Moscow was trying to achieve and which the Americans were also not against, having switched to a notification regime with respect to Europe and Ukraine.

Territorial issues will be discussed on August 15. The Russian Federation requires the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from its territories in order to cease fire. Trump says that an exchange of territories will also be discussed - read the occupied territories of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv, Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions on the territory of the DPR, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.

In Ukraine, they are already openly declaring that "it will not be possible to return what was lost by military means and we must prepare for difficult decisions," read for territorial concessions. There will be no simple freeze on the front line, since it is not in the interests of the Russian Federation. It was previously reported that the Russian Federation is ready to cease fire after the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the occupied areas of the Russian Federation and the cessation of Western weapons supplies to Ukraine. They are not going to repeat the mistake of the Minsk agreements. The hostilities are parallel to diplomacy, so they continue with unabated force. The US interest in the negotiations is primarily due to the fact that if they are delayed, then in a few months Ukraine will lose even more territory and the terms of the deal will be even worse for it. Putin previously stated that if Ukraine is not ready for negotiations, then Russia is ready to wait, read take even more territory and make the conditions even worse for Ukraine.

In general, events are accelerating on the diplomatic front. Characteristic markers that may indicate an imminent cessation of hostilities are the conclusion of a deal on territories, the appointment of new elections in Ukraine, Trump's visit to China in early September.

In general, next week we will see one way or another in what direction the war in Ukraine will develop. Either towards a rollback in the event of successful negotiations in Alaska, or towards further and prolonged escalation in the event of their failure.
I will assume that the probability of successful negotiations is quite significant, otherwise there would be no point in meeting just to talk.
The main question here is who is trying to lead whom by the nose and whether Trump is ready/able to force Ukraine and Europe to implement it in the event of a bilateral deal.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10003252.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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