Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Aug 10, 2025 1:57 pm

Meeting in Alaska
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/08/2025

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“If the price for Ukraine’s survival is temporary Russian occupation, so be it,” the August 4 headline in Ukrainska Pravda paraphrased Czech President Petr Pavel . “At the moment, Ukraine, with all the Western support, is not in a position to liberate the occupied territories in a short time without significant costs in human lives. And, of course, it would be very unfair for the West to pressure Ukraine to liberate all the occupied territories right now, because we do not want to exterminate the Ukrainian nation. We want them to survive as an independent and sovereign country. And if preserving Ukraine as an independent and autonomous state comes at a cost, if the cost is accepting that part of the territory will be temporarily occupied, without legally recognizing it, so be it. We will never recognize these occupied territories as legally Russian,” he said, according to the Ukrainian outlet.

Despite the public rejection over the past three years of any proposal involving the loss of territory—always presented as temporary, although Ukraine lost Crimea and part of Donbass eleven years ago, where Ukraine has long been viewed as a thing of the past—what Pavel was proposing is, at least since the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, the only realistic option. Preserving the Ukrainian state and independence does not imply assuming that Russia still aspires, if that was its desire in 2022, to occupy all of Ukraine or carry out regime change to keep the country within its sphere of influence, but rather halting the loss of population and destruction that the continuation of the war entails. However, for those who have viewed the war in Ukraine as existential and have used it to fight the Russian enemy and get closer to the American ally, this scenario amounts to a strategic defeat.

Although it wasn't the first time that Pavel or other European leaders—primarily the two outspoken figures, Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico—had made such statements, the reaction this time was certainly different. The lack of outrage and demands for the withdrawal of those words is indicative of the current state of the conflict. It is particularly significant that both the statements and the lack of retaliation against them came the week in which Ukraine was finally hoping for its dream scenario of increased military supplies without restrictions on their use in Russia and the imposition of sanctions capable of destroying the Russian economy and making it impossible for Moscow to continue fighting with guarantees. Despite the imposition of harsh sanctions on India—25% tariffs added to the usual—as punishment for purchasing Russian oil, the announcements of the first billion dollars in US weapons purchased for Ukraine by European allies, and even the mention of bringing nuclear submarines closer to Russia, Moscow remained calm and sought to respond to the US order to make significant progress toward peace by August 8 by maintaining calm and continuity.

On previous occasions, especially with the ultimatum that European countries tried to impose on May 10, giving Moscow 48 hours to accept the ceasefire proposed by Trump in March, the Kremlin had been able to counterattack by calling the bluff and raising the stakes. It succeeded in May, when it defused the threats by convening the direct negotiation table in Istanbul three years after their last meeting and demonstrating in a conversation with Donald Trump the desire to reach an agreement to resolve the conflict, not just a ceasefire. The information that has emerged about the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff, the work carried out by Kiril Dmitrev and Dmitry Ushakov with the US side over recent months, and the scenario of a possible agreement currently being raised in the Western media suggest that Russia has acted in the same way on this occasion, when the ultimatum was much more serious, as it came from the party with the capacity to impose it: the United States.

Inclined to a resolution from above , which would avoid direct technical negotiations that could lead to a detailed and concrete agreement in which manipulating the terms would be more complicated, European countries have obtained an exaggerated version of that vision. Faced with an expanded iteration, with more members, of the Normandy Format, in which Volodymyr Zelensky could rely on the assistance of Donald Trump and the European Union to achieve a ceasefire and subsequently work to tip the balance of the conflict in his favor through political, diplomatic, and economic means, what is currently being considered is perhaps the second scenario least favorable to Ukraine's sovereignty and the interests of its European allies. This is not only the European Union, but also the United Kingdom, whose Foreign Secretary demanded that the British government be invited to the Putin-Trump meeting being planned for next Friday, August 15, and which will take place in a venue that was not in the running. “Russia and the United States are close neighbors, they share common borders,” Yury Ushakov said Friday night, announcing that the long-awaited summit, the first meeting of the Russian and U.S. presidents since 2018, will take place in the state Russia sold to the United States in 1867. “It makes sense for our delegation to simply cross the Bering Strait and for the important and long-awaited meeting between the two leaders to take place in Alaska,” he added, specifying that the Russian side expects “naturally, the next meeting between the presidents will take place on Russian territory.” Speculation has already begun in Russian sources about whether that location could be Crimea.

The premature triumphalism with which Ukraine viewed the August 8 ultimatum seems to have spread, equally prematurely, to the Russian Federation, partly facilitated by the wave of defeatism conveyed by some regular commentators on this war. “Trump has chosen to host Putin in a part of the former Russian Empire. I wonder if he knows that Russian nationalists claim that losing Alaska, like Ukraine, was an unfair deal for Moscow and must be corrected,” wrote Michael McFaul, Obama's ambassador to the Russian Federation, who previously expressed surprise that “Putin is coming to America in a week.” The rapid shift from an ultimatum to destroy a country's economy to hosting its president on US soil has led the same commentators who hours earlier boasted about the jeopardy that the loss of the Indian market would represent for Russia due to secondary sanctions to now assume that next Friday's summit will result in an agreement and that the terms will be beneficial to Russia.

The change of course and the disappearance of August 8 as the date marked on the calendar for the imposition of sanctions was orchestrated thanks to the meeting held this week in the Kremlin. Symbolic details are known, such as Vladimir Putin presenting the Order of Lenin to Juliane Gallina, appointed deputy director of digital innovation at the CIA during Biden's administration and whose son died in Donbass fighting in the Russian army, although few political details have emerged. However, Yury Ushakov's comment about a US offer that Moscow considers acceptable and Marco Rubio's words questioning whether Ukraine and "third countries"—that is, European countries—will accept the terms have been enough to bring back the pessimism of the Western media. The hawks, who had enjoyed several weeks in which the war seemed to be approaching a new escalation and listened to Oleksandr Syrsky assert that Ukraine cannot simply defend but must attack, are once again disappointed by the course of events.

Several media outlets, including Bloomberg , The Wall Street Journal , and The New York Times , provide some insight into the type of agreement Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will supposedly discuss when they meet next Friday in Alaska. “Trump announced the meeting Friday shortly after suggesting that a peace deal between the two countries could include ‘some territory swaps,’ indicating that the United States could join Russia in trying to force Ukraine to permanently cede some of its territory. ‘We’re going to take some back, and we’re going to trade some,’ Trump said while hosting the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at a peace summit at the White House. ‘There will be some territory swaps for the benefit of both, but we’ll talk about that later or tomorrow,’” The New York Times quoted the US president as writing yesterday. The territorial question in a war in which neither side has defeated the other necessarily arises from the line of contact, which has always been clear that adjustments would have to be made. According to the Polish media outlet Onet , the first to point to this option, there will be no international recognition of Russian territorial acquisitions, although there will be de facto acceptance of the reality on the ground. Although Ukraine was quick to deny that this was one of the topics of discussion at the Putin-Witkoff meeting, all media outlets assume this is the US offer.

“Putin Tells US He Will Stop War in Exchange for Eastern Ukraine,” headlined The Wall Street Journal yesterday . In its article, the outlet notes European “reluctance”—actually, rejection—to the Kremlin’s proposal, which “would require Ukraine to hand over eastern Ukraine, a region known as Donbass, without Russia committing to much more than halting the fighting.” “Witkoff told European officials that the Russian proposal included two phases, according to two European officials. In the first phase, Ukraine would withdraw from Donetsk and the battle lines would be frozen. Then, in a second phase, Putin and Trump would agree on a final peace plan, which would then be negotiated with Zelensky,” the outlet added. According to this source, freezing the front in its current situation in Zaporozhye and Kherson and returning the territories under Russian control in Sumi and Kharkiv in exchange for the part of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control—much more populated and important than the areas Russia is willing to return to kyiv, so it is not expected that Moscow will be able to impose this vision—would be Moscow's territorial offer. The only remaining question on the territorial front is which territories would change hands. Several media outlets are asking whether Russia would be willing to return to kyiv part of the territories in Zaporozhye or Kherson under its control, especially the Energodar nuclear power plant, one of Ukraine's demands.

Insisting that this scenario would involve Zelensky giving the order to withdraw from part of Donbass, Bloomberg wrote yesterday that “this outcome would represent a major victory for Putin, who has long sought direct negotiations with the United States on the terms to end the war he started, sidelining Ukraine and its European allies. Zelensky risks being presented with a take-it-or-leave-it deal to accept the loss of Ukrainian territory, while Europe fears being left to oversee a ceasefire while Putin rebuilds his forces.” The New York Times also emphasizes this point. “Many diplomats suggest that Putin may be more interested in dragging out diplomacy to buy him time to crush Ukraine rather than securing a peace deal,” the outlet wrote yesterday. The first reaction of Western countries and media to the possibility of an agreement is always to doubt Russian intentions and assume it is a bluff used by Moscow to buy time to impose its true objectives. However, while Russia praises the United States' openness to peace and highlights the work done, it is Ukraine that announces meetings with its European allies to "coordinate their positions" and rejects outright the terms being proposed. As with the "final offer" presented by Steve Witkoff several months ago, European countries and Ukraine are working to present a counterproposal with which to intervene, albeit remotely, in next Friday's meeting.

Stupefied to see how in just a few hours the language of an ultimatum has been transformed into an offer that Moscow considers acceptable and that entails Ukrainian concessions about which the Zelensky government has not been consulted, the Ukrainian leader has simply insisted that "any decision made without Ukraine is a decision against peace. It will achieve nothing." Since the Moscow meeting ended in a friendly tone and with words of praise from Donald Trump, about which the US president informed his disappointed European allies, Volodymyr Zelensky has resumed his work from earlier this year, when he feared, as he does now, that the logic of a proxy war would also be brought to the resolution table and it would be the two countries with the power to decide, Russia and the United States, who would decide how the war should end. The power rests in the hands of those powers, and the White House will view any agreement resulting from the meeting as binding on Ukraine. Trump, who insisted that kyiv would have to “sign something,” wanted to make this clear.

Without hiding his opposition, Volodymyr Zelensky insisted yesterday on rejecting any territorial compromise. “The Ukrainian people deserve peace. But all partners must understand what a dignified peace is. This war must end, and Russia must end it. Russia started it and is prolonging it, ignoring all deadlines, and that is the problem, not another,” he wrote, adding that “the answer to the Ukrainian territorial question is already in the Ukrainian Constitution. No one will deviate from it, nor can they. Ukrainians will not cede their lands to the occupier.” Ukraine’s demands remain the same: an end to the war that favors it, despite having been unable to achieve it either through military means or through political and economic pressure from its allies.

As much, if not more, than the terms of a possible agreement, as the Ukrainian authorities are concerned about the fact that they were not consulted and understand that their opinion is not the primary one at this time. "Any decision made without Ukraine is stillborn," the Ukrainian leader added yesterday, an expression that European leaders also echo, including themselves as part of the entourage that must be present at important meetings. However, it is the United States and Russia that have the capacity to provide the weapons with which to continue the war, so they are also the only two actors with the autonomy to decide when to stop these essential supplies for the continuation of the battle.

However, the situation is not the same as last March, when the United States cut off arms and intelligence supplies to Ukraine, arguing that kyiv was not acting in good faith and did not desire peace. The reproaches continue to be directed at Vladimir Putin; the ultimatum has not been withdrawn—only postponed—and the threat of sanctions remains on the table. The United States has launched a series of mechanisms to supply arms to Ukraine through European countries, whose purchases of material for kyiv's rearmament will not cease once the artillery on the front does. Although the media are focusing virtually all their attention on the territorial issue, it has been clear since the beginning of the Trumpist attempt to reach an agreement that this has never been the most complicated or most important issue to resolve for the parties. “Beyond the territorial issue, a number of equally thorny questions would need to be resolved. Among them is whether Zelensky would obtain security guarantees from Europe, the United States, or NATO to prevent Russia from halting and then resuming the war in an attempt to seize the rest of the country,” writes The New York Times in the only commentary by the major media on the issue that both Kiev and Moscow consider the most important, and on which the terms will not be so favorable to Russia.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/10/reunion-en-alaska/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Details of the missile strike on August 7 in the Kharkiv region

What happened?
On August 7, at about 13:30, monitoring channels reported the arrival of ballistic missiles in the Kharkiv region in the Balakleya area, earlier missile launches were recorded from two directions - Rostov and Voronezh. As a result of the strikes, heavy smoke was noted at the landing site. Officials and the State Emergency Service kept silent about the consequences. Russian Telegram channels reported that the target of the strike was the training camp of the 3rd separate air brigade "Azov" in the area of the settlement of Kreydyanka of the Balakleya urban community.
This information explains the reasons for concealing the emergency that occurred by official Ukrainian officials, because repeated strikes by the Russian Armed Forces on the concentration of personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have become a painful topic, and numerous commissions and statements by the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not affect the actions of the command staff of the units.

According to information from our source:

The strike was indeed aimed at the training camp, and the unresolved problem with alerting the personnel once again became the cause of large losses. The SBU's attempts to block the area and prevent information leaks were unsuccessful. At the moment, more than 50 people are known to have died and about 200 people were injured to varying degrees of severity. In addition, about 12 units of various types of equipment and a RAV warehouse were damaged, which itself took many lives. Another commission is working on the scene.

At the moment, the regional administration has thrown all its efforts into rescuing the wounded, but due to a shortage of donor blood, medical supplies and medical personnel, the number of deaths is only increasing.

In addition, a NASA landscape fire monitoring map recorded a fire on the territory of the Olympia recreation center, which officials kept silent about because it was not used for its intended purpose, and the adjacent forest area clearly shows the rolled and trodden routes where the training was conducted.

***

Colonelcassad
Important background for negotiations.

1. Further infiltration of assault groups and sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the southern and central parts of Krasnoarmeysk. To the north of the agglomeration, the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is also systematically deteriorating.

2. The collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense in Shcherbinovka. Dzerzhinsk will gradually move to the rear zone, especially after they take Kleban-Byk and Aleksandro-Shultino.

3. In the Krasnoliman direction, the Russian Armed Forces have entered the outskirts of Shandrigolovo. So it will soon reach Krasny Liman.

4. Fighting continues for Plavni and on the southern outskirts of Stepnogorsk. The enemy has not stabilized the front here after the loss of Kamenskoye.

Etc. Current trends, despite the enemy's fierce resistance, are extremely unfavorable for him - the loss of territories and settlements has become a stream. The enemy will try to compensate for the failures at the front, as usual, with terrorist attacks, which of course will not save the father of Bandera democracy from being beaten at the front.

***

Colonelcassad
1:19
MSU versus the Yeltsin Center

An entire expert commission of MSU professors analyzed the Yeltsin Center exhibits and found in them not just mistakes, but a clearly structured system of anti-Russian propaganda, an attack on Russia's national sovereignty and a rewriting of history to please the West.

A striking example is the comparison of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991:

"The Great Patriotic War is presented not as a national feat and triumph, but through the prism of "command errors" and losses, creating a sense of senseless slaughter. At the same time, the context of global confrontation and Nazi aggression is completely absent.

The presentation of the events of 1991 grossly violates the principle of historical objectivity. The collapse of the USSR is presented not as a geopolitical catastrophe (in the words of V.V. Putin), but exclusively as a "triumph of democracy" and "liberation"

The most outrageous thing is the exhibit dedicated to privatization. Chubais and his team, who robbed the country, are presented as the saviors of Russia, while the millions of defrauded investors, according to the Yeltsin Center, are "enemies of progress":

"The exhibition dedicated to privatization presents it as a "necessary measure" and "creation of a class of owners", practically ignoring the criminal nature of the process, the plundering of public property and the colossal social stratification. The figures of Gaidar and Chubais are surrounded by the aura of "saviors".

This is not just a bad museum, it is an institute for the rehabilitation of a national catastrophe. The center is trying to impose on society the idea that the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century - the collapse of the USSR - was a blessing, and the predatory privatization and destruction of the social sphere - "the inevitable costs of freedom"


Official CIA branch in the heart of Russia...

@vika_tsyganova63

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Colonelcassad
The Donbass Dome electronic warfare system prevented 799 terrorist attacks by the enemy in a week. 441 drones were eliminated over Donetsk and Makeyevka, 358 over Gorlovka, - reported Pushilin.

" Ukrainian militants tried to attack an electrical substation in the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk with a Darts strike UAV armed with a high-explosive warhead.

Gorlovka continues to be subjected to massive attacks by enemy unmanned FPV drones with improvised explosive devices, the electronic warfare system successfully intercepts enemy attacks. "

***

Colonelcassad
Medvedev on Mexican mercenaries in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:

"While the Euro-imbeciles are trying to hinder American attempts to help resolve the Ukrainian conflict, the agonizing Bandera regime is panicking and recruiting the most vile scum of humanity to the front.

It has reached the level of killers from the cartels of Colombia and Mexico, whose names are known to the whole world from reports and TV series about drug crime: "Clan del Golfo", "Sinaloa", "Jalisco Nueva Generación" and others. The company "Segurkol Ltd" from Medellin is engaged in recruiting thugs.

True, the drug mercenaries, although thugs, are shitty soldiers. The only thing these scumbags can do is cut off the heads of civilians in a drug frenzy. That is why our soldiers are destroying them so quickly that the shippers do not have time to pick up the coffins of all those who did not find peace in the damp earth.

It is clear that the Medellin and Sinaloa freaks are close to everyone who consumes their snow-white products on Bankova . But the Americans, judging by the article in The New York Times from 8/08, should think twice. Mercenaries are taught everything, including how to operate UAVs, which can be very useful when delivering drugs to the United States. It is much more effective than airplanes and submarines.

And if the US President really ordered the Pentagon to prepare strikes against drug cartels in Latin America using army units, then there is a better option. We need to send their army special forces to Kiev, where they can conduct a brilliant anti-terrorist operation to exterminate drug mercenaries without any risks to life.

You can also shoot in the building on Bankova, there are plenty of devoted fans of Pablo Escobar and Fabio Ochoa Vasquez there. "


***

Forwarded from
War on fakes
Fake: Russian conscripts have begun to receive electronic summonses and related restrictions. This is reported by Telegram channels.

Truth: Currently, no conscription events are being held: the spring conscription has already ended, and the autumn conscription will begin on October 1.

As for the Unified Register of Military Registration, according to a source in the Ministry of Defense, testing of the system’s functionality and implementation in the regions is currently underway. During this work, test distribution of templates and standard electronic notifications is being carried out, while the recipients of these notifications were notified about this in advance. Restrictive measures and prohibitions provided for by law will be introduced only after the Unified Register is fully implemented.

Let us recall that earlier there was information that the register would be used starting with the spring conscription of 2025, but this was not confirmed. Most likely, the autumn conscription will take place in the setup and debugging mode, and the full functioning of the Unified Register of Military Registration will be already next year.

Mobilization-related fabrications and fakes are traditionally one of the favorite topics of Ukrainian propaganda and the Russian fugitive opposition. We have already exposed hundreds of such fakes on our channel. A characteristic feature of such messages is the identity between conscription and sending to the SVO zone. However, in reality, only volunteer contract soldiers perform tasks at the front; conscripts are not sent there.


https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google translator

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Brief Frontline Report – August 9th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Aug 09, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "The Minister of Defense congratulated servicemen of the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division on liberating the settlement of Yablonovka in the Donetsk People's Republic."

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Рубеж равертывания резервов ВСУ=The line of deployment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves (the blue dashed lines). ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

The village of Yablonovka (48°25′05″N 37°36′22″E, pre-war population approximately 800) stretches nearly 5 kilometers from west to east along the southern bank of the Bychok River, with its eastern edge terminating at the confluence of the Bychok and Kalinovka rivers near the western end of the Kleban-Byk Reservoir. The capture of the Yablonovka-Aleksandro-Kalinovo junction has allowed Russian forces to isolate the right flank of Ukrainian troops positioned south of the Kleban-Byk Reservoir from their main supply routes. The only remaining exit corridor for Ukrainian forces from this pocket is the eastern extremity of the reservoir near Katerinovka and Kleban-Byk, where Russian assault units are currently directing their offensive operations.

Russian forces are also demonstrating increased activity near Rusin Yar, with reports of clearing operations underway in the village. Westward advances continue toward Sofiyevka while maintaining pressure along the Vladimirovka-Shakhtovo-Novoye Shakhtovo sector. Ukrainian sources report Russian reconnaissance group activity in the Kucherov Yar-Zolotoy Kolodez area.

Regarding the situation, we read the operational scope of the Russian Armed Forces' actions in this direction: the enemy has concentrated in the city of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and its immediate radius, and the activity of the Russian army has immediately increased in adjacent sectors, where actions are aimed at cutting off the transport arteries of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... august-9th

Mikhail Popov Opinion

Relating to the upcoming talks between Presidents Trump and Vladimir Putin
Zinderneuf
Aug 09, 2025

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Comrade Lieutenant Colonel Mikhail Alexandrovich Popov, veteran of Afghanistan:

Wars are waged to achieve certain objectives that could not be attained through peaceful means.

Since 2014, Russia has been calling on the U.S. and the EU to engage in peaceful negotiations. After all, it was clear that with the collapse of the USSR, the post-World War II global system needed an upgrade: the balance of power had changed, the geopolitical landscape had shifted, and the economic space had transformed...

Given all these factors, it was possible to reformat the world order to fit the new conditions.

However, the West (the U.S. and the EU) believed they could reshape the global system without considering Russia’s interests—through forceful methods...

They saw Ukraine as the trigger to destabilize Europe and strengthen the West’s hand. Before that, they had attempted the same in Georgia, by destabilizing the South Caucasus, on the distant fringes of Europe. But there, things immediately went wrong—it was done too quickly, and therefore, too crudely. The aggression against the civilian population of South Ossetia could not be ignored, no matter how hard Western propaganda tried.

So, they decided to act in a more prolonged, more destructive, and more dangerous way—through Ukraine.

But Russia (represented by Putin) in the early 2020s also proposed peaceful terms, clearly outlining its security demands and red lines. The West, however, was intent on reshaping the world order without Russia’s participation.

Only after failing to secure guarantees for a peaceful resolution did Russia proceed to achieve its objectives through armed conflict.

Now, Ukraine is on the verge of complete collapse and demilitarization (the first objective of the SMO), and after its disappearance as a state, the stage of denazification will follow (the second objective of the SMO).

Through armed struggle, Russia has proven to the West that it must be reckoned with. Now, the West is trying to counter its own defeat, halt the collapse of its plans, and steer the process back toward diplomacy.

And this is exactly what Russia has been striving for—A PEACEFUL RESTRUCTURING OF THE WORLD ORDER ON COMPROMISE TERMS.

In other words, peace talks are already a partial victory for Russia—this is precisely what it has sought since Putin’s Munich speech.

As for how the negotiations will end—we shall see. Putin does not back down under pressure—he is a judo genius: the stronger the action against him, the stronger the reaction.

Once again—the shift to peace talks is a phased victory for Russia. This is exactly what Putin has been working toward—to force them to talk to us and take our security demands into account.

Everything else is just media noise and dirt, aimed at derailing or discrediting the negotiations.

We will wait for the results.

And also... the leaders of Russia (unlike their overseas friends) understand that Ukraine is our people, our space (although distorted by nationalism) and our eternal neighbors, and we have to live with that.

Russia has never in its history "dominated" anyone. All the territories and peoples that were and are part of historical Russia have been, are, and will be equal...

Understand, Russia's task is not to dominate anyone, but to give any people free development, but without brainwashing with national superiority and humiliation of others.

That's it... equal and peaceful coexistence. It has always been that way. And it is so...

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... dium=email

******

Ukrainska Pravda...

Ukraine and Europeans present their plan for negotiations with Putin to US – WSJ
Oleh Pavliuk, KATERYNA TYSHCHENKO — Saturday, 9 August 2025, 19:05

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Stock photo: Getty Images

European countries and Ukraine have responded to the "Russian ceasefire plan" with a counterproposal, which, in their opinion, should form the basis for upcoming negotiations between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

Source: The Wall Street Journal with reference to two informed European officials, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The proposal from Kyiv and its allies calls for a mandatory ceasefire before any other steps are taken, as well as any "exchange of territories" only on a mutual basis – that is, if Ukraine withdraws its troops from some regions, Russia must withdraw its troops from others, writes the WSJ.

"You can’t start a process by ceding territory in the middle of fighting," one of the publication's sources said.

In addition, this plan stipulates that any territorial concessions by Kyiv must be backed by ironclad security guarantees – in particular, Ukraine's potential membership in NATO, the article says.

WSJ sources say the goal of the plan is for Europe and Ukraine to establish a common red line that should apply to any potential negotiations with Russia.

This proposal was presented on Saturday at a meeting of national security advisers. The American side was represented by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Trump’s special envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg.

European representatives told them that Ukraine's future cannot be discussed without Ukraine and that Europe will continue to provide Ukraine with weapons and funds regardless of the US position, one source told the WSJ.

Background: Amid news of the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska on 15 August, as well as media claims that Washington and Moscow want to reach an agreement to end the war in Ukraine that would lock in Russia's occupation of part of the territories seized during its full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that "the answer to the Ukrainian territorial question is already there in the Constitution of Ukraine".

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/08/9/7525439/

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Exchange of territories
August 9, 22:50

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Exchange of territories

The cocaine Fuhrer says he is against the exchange of territories.
Just recently, he said that he would like to exchange the occupied parts of the Kursk region for something. But no one was going to exchange with him, and the occupied parts of the Kursk region were simply taken from him.

Refusal to give up the territories of the DPR diplomatically will lead to the fact that, as in the Kursk region, Russia will take the remaining areas of the DPR, and then the question will arise about what to exchange the areas of the Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and Sumy regions occupied by Russia for. According to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the northern areas of the Zaporizhia region (including the cities of Zaporizhia, Orekhov and Gulyaipole) and the right-bank part of the Kherson region (including the city of Kherson). The Russian Federation has already stated that the exchange of territories concerns these territories as well. This issue was also discussed at the meeting with Whitkoff.

Despite all the known doubts about the seriousness of Trump's intentions, it is worth noting the attitude to this meeting in Europe and Ukraine. They do not like this meeting at all. They are already calling this "conspiracy behind Ukraine's back." There is a huge number of leaks in the globalist and Ukrainian media about the format and content of the upcoming meeting (therefore, in the coming week, focus not on newspaper headlines, but on official statements on the negotiations of the Kremlin, the Russian Foreign Ministry, the White House and the State Department. In fact, a fairly limited circle of people knows about the agenda of the negotiations, and the media at best guess/assume, or openly throw in information. Plus, we can expect terrorist attacks and provocations in the coming days to disrupt this meeting, which can simply present the EU and Ukraine with the fact of agreements already concluded without them, while it is the US that will be obliged to ensure their enforcement of the agreements. I am sure that we will no longer take the US's word for it (after all the previous scams from respected partners).

From a military point of view, a stop to the fighting is now much more necessary for the Armed Forces of Ukraine than for the Russian Armed Forces, which have gained an excellent pace by August, which will certainly beat the record July in terms of liberated territory.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10005234.html

Exchange of Ukrainian territories. Bargaining stage
August 10, 11:00

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Bargaining stage.

Ukraine and the EU are again demanding a "seat at the negotiating table", "security guarantees with the option of Ukraine joining NATO", "mutual withdrawal of troops" from some territories during a "territory exchange", etc.

It is obvious that Russia will not accept any of this. But it is noteworthy that now the issue of "territory exchange" is being openly discussed by both the EU and Ukraine, although previously it was haram. The topic of territorial exchange has already openly surfaced on the mainstream agenda. The bargaining stage has begun. This proposal is shitty and will not be accepted. Try harder.

In the coming days, there will be other proposals aimed at putting pressure on Trump and adjusting some behind-the-scenes Russian-American agreements. The cries about a "seat at the negotiating table" stem from the fact that the current Russian-American agreements completely ignore the wishes of Ukraine and Europe.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10005742.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Aug 11, 2025 12:17 pm

European counterattack
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/08/2025

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Chaotic in form, contradictory in content, and led by individuals whose authority is dubious—Witkoff was negotiating with Iran to reduce the amount of uranium the Persian country could enrich until Trump burst into the dialogue to demand a ban on all enrichment—and whose knowledge is questionable, the diplomatic process seeking peace in Ukraine continues to go in circles. The process, lacking continuity and plagued by ups and downs, changes of opinion, and a lack of a coherent strategy, is reduced to an attempt to accommodate contradictory positions through direct or indirect dialogue between three key players: the United States, the Russian Federation, and the Ukraine-European alliance. Based on incentives and threats, and following the logic of the plan published more than a year ago by Kellogg and Fleitz as part of the America First Policy Institute 's foreign policy approach , a candidate to become the political platform of the Trump administration, the United States has sought to become the nexus between all the conflicting interests.

In this process, Washington has guaranteed economic benefits from Ukraine, continues to attempt to do the same to Russia (primarily in its energy sector), and has reached a trade agreement with the European Union in which the United States reaps all the benefits and European countries make all the concessions, including a commitment to invest in American energy and weapons. The European concessions to achieve a trade agreement under the terms dictated by Donald Trump sought, in addition to avoiding economic instability and uncertainty, to gain credit with the current US president and secure a stance favorable to European interests on the Ukrainian issue, a "bad war" for Trump, but described as existential by Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and also London. In this process of back and forth, reproaches, and cross-accusations, the main concern of European actors has been the fear of a peace that, as the Danish Prime Minister admitted, could be, for European countries, "even more dangerous than war." This would be the case if it were to occur as a result of an agreement between Russia and the United States, ignoring the interests and will of European countries, which, since the delegations led by Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov met for the first time, breaking the Western will to completely isolate Moscow, have tried to impose their presence in the negotiations for the resolution of the war.

That desire is being echoed now, with the confirmation of the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, echoing the outrage caused in Kyiv and European capitals when the first meeting between the United States and Russia was announced, or when, after a series of bilateral contacts, Washington's "final offer" was released, which Ukraine was expected to accept without complaint. Four months have passed since that moment, and positions have not changed. The "final offer," presented by Steve Witkoff to Vladimir Putin in Moscow, was countered by the Ukrainian and European proposal, which, thanks to the intervention of Keith Kellogg and Marco Rubio, quickly became the basis of US policy toward Ukraine. As explained in greater depth last April , when Reuters published the terms of both texts, imposing one or the other also implied the path of negotiation and the type of resolution sought. Through Witkoff's roadmap, considered pro-Russian despite leaving the door open to the introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine, Russia sought a basic negotiation that would lead to a final agreement, a binding treaty addressing all the main issues of the war: security, territories, rights of the different populations, and the lifting of sanctions. With their counterproposal, quickly adopted by Keith Kellogg as a US proposal that Russia had to accept, the European countries imposed a ceasefire and a subsequent negotiation process to freeze the military conflict and perpetuate the political one, a way to halt Russian advances, reduce the danger to Ukraine, and maintain Moscow as the threat that justifies the policy of partitioning the continent, sanctions, isolation, rearmament, and closing of the Atlanticist ranks.

Unsurprisingly, on the same day that the media published the leaked details of the Witkoff-Putin meeting in the Kremlin, European countries counterattacked with arguments very similar, if not exact, to those used in April. More explicitly than the others, the British government demanded to be invited to the Alaska summit, which European countries intend to turn into an all-out showdown with Russia, in which they will hold the upper hand and impose their preferred path to resolving the conflict, starting with the unconditional ceasefire they have been demanding from Moscow since March. And throughout Saturday, the communications between the various European leaders and Volodymyr Zelensky insisted on the same idea: "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. We must be united," as Pedro Sánchez wrote in his tweet about the conversation with the Ukrainian president. In a somewhat more extensive statement, and adding the European Union's demand to be present in a resolution in which Trump has reserved the right to bear the costs, Emmanuel Macron wrote that "Ukraine's future cannot be decided without the Ukrainians, who have been fighting for their freedom and security for over three years. Europeans will also necessarily be part of the solution, as their own security is at stake."

The slowness and clumsiness with which European countries have reacted, convinced until Wednesday that their position had been strengthened by Trump's anger with Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi, and Lula da Silva, and thanks to European commitments to massive investments in the United States, is due, at least in part, to the inconsistent information received from their American allies. According to The Wall Street Journal , between the time of the Kremlin meeting and Saturday, there were three phone calls in which American officials gave different versions of Russia's position. In the first, Donald Trump stated, according to the newspaper, that Russia would be willing to withdraw from Zaporozhye and Kherson in exchange for obtaining all of Donbass, an absolutely implausible proposal under current conditions, but one that had already been reported in outlets such as Newsweek . The incoherent article considered it credible that Russia would be willing to hand over part of the territory it controls in exchange for a ceasefire that it had not requested. In the second call, Steve Witkoff denied Trump's claims, "suggesting both that Russia would withdraw and that it would freeze the front." In the third call, again according to the same source, in a conversation demanded by confused European allies and in which only Witkoff was present, Trump's envoy "clearly stated that the only offer on the table was for Ukraine to unilaterally withdraw from Donetsk in exchange for a ceasefire."

The contacts held throughout Saturday between various European leaders, the talks with Zelensky, and the meeting between Andriy Ermak and his henchman Rustem Umerov in London with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy and US Vice President JD Vance have resulted in a joint statement by several European leaders and the continental counterproposal, an outline of which was published yesterday by The Wall Street Journal . All of this can be summarized in what Andriy Ermak wrote after his meeting. “Our positions were clear: a solid and lasting peace is only possible with Ukraine at the negotiating table, with full respect for our sovereignty and without recognizing the occupation. A ceasefire is necessary, but the front line is not a border. Our partners do not support us with words alone: assistance will continue in the military, financial, and sanctions spheres until the aggression ceases,” he wrote in a message that he complemented today with another in which he reaffirmed Ukraine’s intentions and culminated with the usual “peace through strength,” which Ukraine takes much more literally than Donald Trump. Ukraine’s objective, beyond being at the meeting, is to push for a temporary solution to the war that does not involve a binding treaty recognizing all or part of the territories Ukraine has lost in the war as Russian. Ukraine, like European countries, says it wants an end to the war, a definitive cessation of the war, and criticizes Russia for wanting territories it has not been able to obtain by its own means. However, it demands conditions it has unsuccessfully tried to impose by military means and which also do not correspond to reality.

“The path to peace for Ukraine must be determined jointly with Ukraine; this is fundamental. It is important that joint approaches and a shared vision contribute to genuine peace. A consolidated position. Ceasefire. End of the occupation. End of the war,” Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on Saturday, once again demanding that Russia surrender unilaterally, which can only be imposed through a military victory that kyiv has failed to achieve despite its triumphalism, the European supremacist stance that has taken for granted the greater value of Ukrainian soldiers and Western weapons, the sanctions that were supposed to cripple the Russian economy, and the billions in military and financial supplies.

Added to Ukraine's complaints about the media's language are European concerns about once again seeing its opinion ignored and risking the strategic defeat that a resolution implying Russia's readmission into Western international relations and the lifting of sanctions would entail. Without really hiding the fact that their intentions are not limited to protecting Ukraine but extend to their own interests, the letter signed by French President Macron, Italian Prime Minister Meloni, German Chancellor Merz, European Commission President von der Leyen, and Finnish President Stubb states that “we share the conviction that a diplomatic solution must protect the vital security interests of Ukraine and Europe. We agree that these vital interests include the need for strong and credible security guarantees that allow Ukraine to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Ukraine is free to decide its own destiny. Meaningful negotiations can only take place in the context of a ceasefire or a reduction in hostilities. The path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine. We remain committed to the principle that international borders should not be changed by force. The current line of contact must be the starting point for negotiations.” The basic ideas, also expressed by Zelensky and Ermak, are the need for a ceasefire, but without recognizing any border changes, and the continued demand for Ukraine's territorial integrity, which Ukraine insists on despite having proven impossible to achieve through military means and sanctions. In other words, this is the perpetuation of the continental political conflict based on a refusal to accept definitive terms, which prevents a conclusive resolution.


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To achieve their goals—pressure Donald Trump to adopt a more belligerent stance toward Russia at Friday's meeting and impose their own terms, not those currently on the table with the United States—the European countries have already prepared their counterproposal. Hoping to achieve the same success they had in April, when Witkoff's "final offer" was apparently forgotten—although the actual terms of the US proposal to Russia are basically those detailed in that roadmap, recovered four months later—the European countries are proposing a path to a ceasefire more suited to their needs.

“The European proposal includes a demand for a ceasefire before any further steps are taken. It also stipulates that the exchange of territories can only be carried out reciprocally, meaning that if Ukraine withdraws from some regions, Russia must withdraw from others,” writes The Wall Street Journal . It seems obvious that, when referring to the Russian withdrawal of territories, European countries are not referring to Kharkiv or Sumi, but to Zaporozhye and Kherson—that is, what they thought they heard from Donald Trump. This idea, the Russian withdrawal from all territories except Donbass and Crimea, is strikingly similar to the Russian offer to Ukraine in the spring of 2022, before much of the destruction and death that has followed since then had occurred. At the time, the offer was considered unacceptable by European countries and Ukraine, which opted for the “we’ll just fight” approach supposedly expressed by Boris Johnson, which represented the sentiment of all European capitals and Kyiv.

Presented to Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Keith Kellogg, and Steve Witkoff, Trump's envoys for Ukraine and Russia respectively, the European plan "also stipulates that any territorial concessions by Kyiv must be backed by unwavering security guarantees, including Ukraine's possible NATO membership."

The déjà vu is evident. While the United States is proposing something very similar to its "final offer" from April, European countries and Ukraine are resuming their counterproposals, seeking a ceasefire that would prevent further Russian advances, a transition from endless war to eternal political conflict, and the maintenance of the future demand for territorial integrity protected by the presence of NATO troops on the ground, awaiting a change in the White House to give Ukraine its dream of joining the bloc. In other words, the roadmap Kellogg endorsed in April, which resulted in the continuation of the war given the unfeasibility of the terms.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/11/contraataque-europeo/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
On the situation on the front (data from @Belarus_VPO )

Sumy region:
the LBS in this area is unchanged, counter strikes by Russian troops with artillery and UAVs do not allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to attempt to break through the border with small groups of infantry, as well as along the Konstantinovka-Alekseevka-Yablonovka-Yunakhovka line;

intense clashes continue in Yunakhovka, the enemy is counterattacking.

In Kharkivske:
Fighting is ongoing near the southwestern outskirts of Vovchansk and in the direction of Sinelnikovo.

In Kupyansko-Limanske:
the Ukrainian Armed Forces repelled an attack by Russian units on the northern outskirts of the settlement of Shandrigolovo;

the Russian Armed Forces are also putting pressure on Ukrainian formations in the area of the ravine east of Sredny (north of Shandrigolovo), in the Serebryansky forest, Russian troops have occupied an area of up to 2 square kilometers.

In Seversky:
the Russian Armed Forces are conducting assault operations in the direction of Serebryanka and Seversk.

In Konstantinovsky:
Russian troops have advanced south of the settlement. Dyleevka, on the northwestern outskirts of Toretsk and occupied a "pocket" between Romanovka and Novospasskoye, active fighting is underway in the area of the Dynamite slag heap, near Katerinovka and for Shcherbinovka;

clashes are noted near the Kleban-Bykskoye reservoir.

At Pokrovskoye:
Russian troops managed to consolidate their position southeast of the settlement of Novoye Shakhovo, in the eastern part of Nikanorovka and occupy the ravine area west of Boykovka, the Russian Armed Forces are bringing up fresh reserves to this section of the front;

intense clashes are underway in the direction of Rodinskoye, for the Krasnolimanskaya mine, in the eastern part of Krasny Liman and in the Leontovichi area.

At Novopavlovskoye:
the Russian Armed Forces are putting pressure on Ukrainian formations north of Novokhatskoye and in the Zeleny Gai area.

In Zaporizhia:
Russian troops continue to clear Voskresensk, press in the direction of Sichneve, where intense fighting is underway for tactically important heights, and are also advancing in the direction of Kamyshevakha;

despite numerous enemy counterattacks on Kamenskoye and Plavni, as well as the high intensity of enemy drone activity, the Russian Armed Forces continue to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of their occupied positions, assault units of Russian troops are gaining a foothold on the outskirts of Stepnogorsk, attempting to double envelop the settlement.

***

Colonelcassad
Merz called on the US and Russia not to resolve the issue of Ukrainian territories “over the heads” of Europe and Ukraine.😀

"In any case, we cannot accept that over the heads of Europeans, over the heads of Ukrainians, territorial issues will be discussed or even decided between Russia and America. I assume that the American government sees it the same way."

***

Colonelcassad
0:33
Captured Ukrainian soldier

Soldier of the 225th separate regiment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oshkovsky Dmitry. He himself does not know what to fight for. And what he saw at "zero" is not enough for the army

"The morale... the spirit dropped from the first day I got here. That is, at first, you were a labor force, and then you were forcibly assigned to an assault group. We even had a couple of people who couldn't write or read. There were some kind of moron there. And they became assault troopers. Well, what kind of assault troopers are they? They all shout "2 2 5" and "tigers, tigers!" Well, look at these "tigers" - half of them are disabled. Fuck you."

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Alaska Summit Announced: Is the End Finally Near?
Simplicius
Aug 09, 2025

Trump and Putin have announced their historic peace summit for next week, and in Alaska of all fatefully symbolic places. Is the conflict finally approaching its concluding arc?

Not so fast.

Despite the repetitive banality of the negotiations and ceasefires carousel, we must put events through the wringer of logic to address the many misconceptions currently buzzing about this flyblown topic.

First is the biggest elephant in the room: no one seems to know what territories Trump is allegedly peddling on Ukraine’s behalf. Interlocutors and their MSM stenographers have subtly leveraged the deliberately vague term “Donbass” or “eastern Ukraine”, feigning naivete as usual to ignore Russia’s well-known demands for Kherson and Zaporozhye. Amazing how the journalistic attribute of ‘attention to detail’ is so easily jettisoned by establishment organs when the narrative requires it.

An example, the leading piece from WSJ which broke this story states the following:

In a series of calls this week, Europeans sought to get clarity on a key aspect of the proposal—what would happen in the southern regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, where Russian troops also control some territory. Officials who were briefed by the Trump administration on calls Wednesday and Thursday came away with conflicting impressions about whether Putin intended to freeze the current front lines or eventually pull out of those regions entirely.

A U.S. official said Putin called for pausing the war at current lines in both regions. Russia would then negotiate land swaps with Ukraine, aiming for full Moscow control of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. It couldn’t be determined which territory Ukraine would receive in return.


But in the same day, another WSJ piece contradictorily wrote:

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So, one report says Putin aims to negotiate a takeover of all Kherson and Zaporozhye, while the other that Putin is willing to withdraw from both in exchange for Donetsk and Lugansk.

As can be seen, no one knows what the proposal actually is, which further suggests Witkoff himself is clueless.

Now BILD has gone as far as to accuse Witkoff of blundering his meeting with Putin, centering the entire ‘historic summit’ on a total misunderstanding of the Russian president’s demands:

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https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und ... 1cb081eb54

According to BILD information, even before the peace summit on August 15, the Kremlin did not deviate from its maximum demand of wanting to completely control the five Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, Kherson, and Crimea before the guns fall silent. The Russian side only brought “sectoral ceasefires” into play – such as a mutual renunciation of attacks on energy facilities or larger cities behind the front lines.

They serve up the prodigious claim—backed, according to BILD, both by an anonymous ‘Ukrainian government official’ as well as ‘German government representatives’—that Witkoff mistook Putin’s demands for Ukraine to leave Kherson and Zaporozhye as concessions for Russia to leave these contested regions instead:

Worse still, Trump's special envoy Witkoff is said to have completely misunderstood some of the Russians' statements and misinterpreted them as concessions on Putin's part. He misunderstood Russia's demand for a “peaceful withdrawal” of Ukrainian forces from Kherson and Zaporizhzhya as an offer of a “peaceful withdrawal” of Russian forces from these regions.

And here we thought that direct meetings would put an end to the infamous ‘telephone game’ Western leaders so often use to shield their conniving.

Granted, virtually anything co-written by Julian Roepcke should be taken not with a grain, but a grain elevator of Himalayan seasalt, but we must admit that the media’s oddly suspicious tiptoeing around this topic—the blackout of the critical Kherson and Zaporozhye regions as part of Russia’s demands—does seem to lend some credence to the debacle.

The next problem is that Zelensky has already categorically rejected any territorial concessions at all, reminding the world that Ukrainian lands are baked into the Ukrainian constitution and cannot be given up:

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Of course, these territories are now baked into the Russian constitution as well, so it’s a case of whose constitution takes precedence.

A Ukrainian official allegedly told Axios that a referendum could be held to cede the territories:

▪️A Ukrainian official also told the publication that even if Zelensky agrees to Putin's demands, he will have to hold a referendum, as the Constitution of Ukraine does not allow ceding territory.

This is particularly interesting given the latest polls making the rounds that show the majority of Ukrainians now want an end to the conflict.

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In Gallup’s most recent poll of Ukraine — conducted in early July 2025 — 69% say they favor a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, compared with 24% who support continuing to fight until victory.

This marks a nearly complete reversal from public opinion in 2022, when 73% favored Ukraine fighting until victory and 22% preferred that Ukraine seek a negotiated end as soon as possible.


So, if Zelensky definitely won’t so much as entertain the thought of giving up territories, and if Russia presumably is sticking to its guns on both Kherson and Zaporozhye, then what exactly is there to talk about between US and Russia?

There are two aspects to this answer:

First, we must understand exactly what is being talked about. The current Russian offer on the table goes as follows: If Ukraine withdraws its troops from all territories in question—that is Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye—then Putin has stated he would effect an immediate ceasefire. But this refers not to a total end of the conflict, but rather a temporary ceasefire that would set the stage for true negotiations on the conflict’s end to begin.

In short, Putin is saying: “If you withdraw your troops, we will silence our guns long enough to see if we can reach a real and final conclusion to the war.” If such a conclusion subsequently cannot be reached, then it is assumed Russian guns would again begin cracking.

We must assume that either the Americans understand this and have some plan in hand to deliver this Russian demand, or that BILD is right and Witkoff blitheringly misinterpreted Putin’s requests again—and the summit will be a pointless exercise.

Assuming the former: what can the US possibly do, given Zelensky’s clear recalcitrance? The only possible solution would be to up the pressure on him and get rid of Zelensky once and for all—but he’s turned out to be far more wily and resilient than either side gives him credit for.

The other big thing to consider is that the Europeans have already stated multiple times that they would not repeal their sanctions on Russia even if the US reversed its own. So ask yourself, what possible incentive would Russia have to make a deal with the US, which may be largely contingent on sanctions reversal, if a large portion—perhaps the majority—of the sanctions remain by way of the Europeans? So this avenue, too, seems unworkable.

The only sensible explanation appears to be one which is a natural extension of our previous analysis here, which spoke of Trump’s desire to disentangle himself from his own sanctions trap. It would seem that one possible motive for this summit would be a mechanism for Trump to again shift blame onto Zelensky as a vehicle for his removal. Trump could announce that a “deal” had been reached with Russia, then highlight to the world that it is Zelensky who is now refusing ‘sensible’ concessions, which would give Trump the political capital to throw Ze under the trolley and extricate himself from the big sanctions deadline the world was awaiting. “Why would I sanction Russia when they have shown interest in peace, and Zelensky is the one now blocking it?”

Apart from these psychological games, it’s hard to imagine how the summit could reach any tangible results. In line with Witkoff’s gaff, even Putin appeared to treat the ‘solemn’ rapprochement with a bit of tongue-in-cheek ribbing, which could point to Putin’s state of mind—or in other words, his lack of respect or seriousness toward the entire circus. I refer to Putin’s trolling of Witkoff, wherein the Russian leader presented Trump’s gopher with a state award—the Order of Lenin—to be given to the currently serving Deputy Director for Digital Innovation of none other than…the CIA:

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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/putin-awar ... n-ukraine/

You see, this CIA deputy director’s son happened to fight and die in Ukraine…on Russia’s side. You may recall photos of the Bohemian-looking hippie making the rounds last year:

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Michael Alexander Gloss fought for the 137th Regiment of the 106th Tula Airborne Division of the Russian Airborne Forces. He was killed on April 4, 2024, near Veseloye-Rozdolovka (near Soledar), Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine.

For Putin to hand Witkoff this young fellow’s state award, to be relayed back to the CIA, is a major ‘alpha’ power play and troll-job-in-one designed to irreverently convey the broader message that Russia will not play second fiddle to the US in any negotiations.

It should be noted, though, this report of Putin’s “award” is mere hearsay on MSM’s behalf—again through the “sources in the administration” grapevine—which is another way of saying, it could easily be another psyop meant to weaken the summit and US-Russian rapprochement in general—though no one has denied it, either.

Lastly, here Trump further hints at the angle that the summit is meant to pressure Zelensky, where he says that Zelensky needs to get his things in order and figure out how to sign whatever it is he needs to sign to give up territories: (Video at link.)

Trump does mention the ‘swapping’ of some territories, by which we can only assume—as there is virtually no other logical option—that he expects Russia to give back parts of Sumy and Kharkov.

At the end of the day, the earlier point stands: how could Russia ever rely on a deal only with the US when Europe continues to reject any such deals? What security guarantee can Russia possibly have merely under the aegis of the US’ promise, when Europe will continue supplying Ukraine with money, aid, weapons, etc.? It’s simply impossible to imagine Russia finding an equitable solution here, unless Trump has some major plans for bringing Europe to heel.

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Even as we speak, Zelensky has retreated into a ‘huddle’ with European leaders, who have thrown their own makeshift spoiler summit to again show ‘solidarity’ in rejecting anything Putin and Trump come up with. From Russia’s perspective, this is an impossible scenario, which seems to further support the theory that this is just another stage of Trump’s slow sabotaging of Zelensky.



Arguably the more important story, one overshadowed by the ‘summit’ charade, has to do with the behind-the-scenes galvanization of the BRICS as consequence of Trump’s latest hostilities toward the group’s members. India was reportedly appalled by Trump’s perceived sudden backstab and began to signal a commitment toward Russian relations, particularly of the economic variety.

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Putin is now reportedly scheduled to visit India at the end of August—according to Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval—and is then heading to Beijing on September 3rd. These visits were the original reason I had assumed the Alaskan summit was a no-brainer, as Putin appears to be set for a long tour of that side of the world and Alaska would be an obvious local stopover.

Putin’s Indian visit is reportedly at Modi’s invitation—an invitation made after Trump began his economic bullying of India via sanctions. This is an obvious signal of defiance by Modi and India, and the fact that both of them are set to then meet with Xi in Beijing forebodes even bigger developments as some have pointed out:

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9/3 Beijing is the new Yalta to shape the world order: Modi, Putin and Xi will be there, Trump will be left out in the cold. PM Modi to visit China for Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, 1st trip to Beijing since 2019.

This comes days after Brazil’s Lula likewise reacted harshly and defiantly to Trump’s sanctions threats by again calling for global de-dollarization:
(Video at link.)

Brazilian President Lula: “It’s time for the world to move away from using the U.S. dollar in international trade.” “I will also not forget that they tried to stage a coup here”

Keep in mind Brazil already created its own SWIFT-bypassing payment system called PiX several years ago, and Trump’s admin just last month launched an ‘investigation’ of it, particularly as PiX has badly hurt Visa and Mastercard’s business.

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https://cointelegraph.com/news/u-s-inve ... -dominance

The powerhouses of the Global South have shown their defiance in the face of Trump’s economic yoking, which is likely what has led to Trump’s desperate cashout attempt in Alaska. He needs a way to worm his way out of the war without exposing the US or himself as having an empty chamber (and a full chamberpot).

Lastly, to bring things around:

As they say, if you don’t have a seat on the table, you’re probably on the menu—from cartoonist Dave Brown:

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https://x.com/DaveBrownToons/status/1953510153891754103

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ala ... is-the-end

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Our elephants
August 10, 23:01

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Our elephants are from Africa.

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Recently, a Togolese man was officially and publicly awarded a Russian passport as a token of his services during his participation in the SVO in Ukraine.
For many Africans, participation in the war in Ukraine is not only a matter of earning money or fighting Nazism and colonialism, but also an opportunity to obtain a Russian passport and move to live in Russia. They are ready to prove their desire with action, so there are no questions for their new African compatriots.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10007169.html

"Gerani" mines roads
August 11, 8:24

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The enemy is whining that now, during strikes, the Geraniums, among other things, also scatter various mines on roads deep into enemy territory. Before attacking the main objects, some of the Geraniums drop mines on the enemy's rear logistics.
A clear example of the fact that the drone revolution is not over yet and the existing concepts of using various drones continue to actively develop and modernize. In the case of the Geranium, this is a new option in addition to all the other advantages of this drone.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10007327.html

Azerbaijani fires
August 11, 10:58

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Azerbaijani garbage dumps went into hysterics after the latest strikes on energy facilities in Ukraine, which were connected with Azerbaijani business. The flames were especially bright after the strike in Odessa region, where a gas compressor station was recently hit, through which Azerbaijan was going to supply gas to Ukraine via Romania. Literally a few days after the advertising announcement, they covered it up.

If Russia continues to strike energy facilities in Ukraine connected with Azerbaijan, Baku will start considering lifting the embargo on arms supplies to Ukraine, which are in its arsenal.

This is how they "threaten".

1. Azerbaijan was supplying weapons to Ukraine just fine without this.
2. Azerbaijan turned a blind eye to the participation of Azerbaijani mercenaries in the war in Ukraine.
3. Even before the strikes, Azerbaijan announced the creation of a production facility for 122-mm shells for supplies to the Nazis in Kiev.

So what we are talking about here is the legalization of what was already being done. It is just that the Russian Federation has stopped turning a blind eye to this and is demonstratively crushing Azerbaijani criminals, who will follow the "Georgian scheme of 2008" and take out facilities connected to the Azerbaijani oil and gas sector in Ukraine. All this is a much more effective response than squabbling with Aliyev in the media. With a stone face, they are simply hitting Azerbaijani money. And judging by everything, these are not the last blows.

Azerbaijan will not be able to supply much in any case, and open supplies will only lead to more painful consequences for Azerbaijan, where Azerbaijan's economic losses will grow exponentially. Russophobia must be paid for.

P.S. The photo shows a fire at a gas compressor station in Orlovka after a massive strike by "Geraniya" on August 6.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10007667.html

The issue of territorial exchange
August 11, 12:55

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The issue of territorial exchange

If even such ghouls as Lindsay Graham started talking about the inevitable "territory exchange", it means that preparations for the transfer of the remains of Donbass to the Russian Federation are in full swing, and behind-the-scenes bargaining is now coming to the fore.
The differences in the current positions are as follows.

1. The Russian Federation demands at the current stage that the West fully transfer the LPR and DPR under its control (with subsequent legal recognition) in order to cease fire and begin negotiations. And only then exchange the occupied areas of the Kharkiv, Sumy and Dnepropetrovsk regions for the remaining parts of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. The implementation of this scheme will allow achieving all the officially declared territorial goals of the SVO diplomatically.

2. The US and Co. propose exchanging the remaining part of the LPR and DPR (about 20% of the territory) for the territories of the Kharkiv and Sumy regions occupied by the Russian Armed Forces (approximately 7,200 square kilometers to 2,500 square kilometers) with the freezing of the rest of the front line to begin negotiations. This is of course not very advantageous for the Russian Federation, since it does not solve the problem of occupying Kherson and Zaporozhye.

In the current reality - the more intensively the Russian Armed Forces occupy the territory in Donbass, the more likely option 1 will be, and the less likely option 2. Under certain circumstances, the US may agree to option 1 with some changes, but the cocaine Fuhrer and his sponsors are clearly pushing for option 2, realizing that it is not advantageous for the Russian Federation.

P.S. The enemy expects an intensification of the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Zaporozhye region and in Donbass in the coming weeks. Plus, the Russian Armed Forces continue to frighten the enemy with a possible landing in the Korabelny district of Kherson.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10007905.html

Google Translator

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US-Russian Presidents to Meet: US Prepares Dagger of Betrayal (Again)
Posted by Internationalist 360° on August 10, 2025



Nothing has changed fundamentally within the US power structure to change the overall objectives of US special interests in regards to pursuing primacy worldwide, thus, no fundamental change in US foreign policy has taken place;

The US geopolitical priority is the pursuit of unipolar hegemony through a division of labor and strategic sequencing, wanting a ceasefire to allow European forces to position themselves inside Ukraine allowing the US to pivot the center of global conflict to Middle East, Asia-Pacific;
The US will provide Russia irresistible terms to lure Russia into a ceasefire and will use European client states to “disrupt” peace by sending in military forces to Ukraine, claiming Europe did it “unilaterally” in the same manner the US used Israel to attack Iran earlier this year;
At the same time the US continues to encircle Russia through its interference in the Caucasus region, dismembering Iran’s network of allies in the Middle East, threatening to arrest Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, and continues to prepare US military forces for confrontation with China in the Asia-Pacific, all of these nations being Russian allies;

The US just used negotiations as a means of luring in Iran for a US-Israel decapitation strike on Iran’s military and political leadership, enabled the recent Israeli decapitation strikes on Hezbollah’s leadership last year, and President Trump himself recently gloated about luring Iranian General Qassem Soleimani to Iraq where a US drone strike killed him in 2020 – all of which raises the risk for Russian President Vladimir Putin traveling to the US for “diplomacy” with an “agreement incapable” government;
References:

CNN – Trump-Putin summit in Alaska resembles a slow defeat for Ukraine (August 10, 2025): https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/09/eu

Reuters – Moscow warns of ‘titanic efforts’ to disrupt Putin-Trump meeting (August 9, 2025): https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/

BBC – Ukraine’s European allies say peace talks must include Kyiv (August 10, 2025): https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0e

NYT – U.S. STRATEGY PLAN CALLS FOR INSURING NO RIVALS DEVELOP (1992): https://www.nytimes.com/1992/03/08/wo

NYT – The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin (2024): https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/wo

NYT – The Partnership: The Secret History of the War in Ukraine (Mar. 2025): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2

The New Atlas – US Lays “Minsk 3” Ceasefire Trap for Russia as Europe Prepares “Peacekeepers” (Mar. 20, 2025): • US Lays “Minsk 3” Ceasefire Trap for Russi…

White House – President Trump’s Leadership, Vision Drives NATO Breakthrough (June 26, 2025): https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2

ABC News – Trump admin approves new sale of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine (Oct. 2019): https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump

RAND Corporation – Extending Russia (2019): https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_re… PDF: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand

Heritage Foundation – Project 2025 (2023): https://static.heritage.org/project20

US DoD – Opening Remarks by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at Ukraine Defense Contact Group (Feb. 12, 2025): https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches

Reuters – U.S. secures strategic transit corridor in Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal (Aug. 7, 2025): https://www.reuters.com/world/us-secu

AP – Trump honors Purple Heart recipients, including 3 who sent him medals after attempt on his life (Aug. 7, 2025): https://apnews.com/article/trump-purp

BBC – US offers $50m reward for arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro (Aug. 8, 2025): https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy

YNET – US proposal for Lebanon-Israel resolution demands Hezbollah disarmament, Israeli pullback by end of 2025 (Aug. 6, 2025): https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sjbn

Regarding US-Russian Negotiations

1. The US CANNOT be negotiated with – no matter what “leverage” anyone including Russia “thinks” they have over the US – the US only seeks space and time to reassert itself – no level of betrayal is beneath them (for more information please see: Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran, Minsk 1, Minsk 2, every arms control treaty the US ever signed, etc);

2. The ONLY way for multipolarism to prevail is to create a world that forces the US into first – isolation economically and diplomatically, as well as containment militarily where its military has no possible means of fighting and winning through conventional, nuclear, hybrid, or other means and remains confined to US borders INDEFINITELY;

3. The US and all means of influence, coercion, and capture must be displaced/isolated until the special interests – corporations/financial institutions driven by a deep supremacist mindset collapse and are swept away by alternative interests in the US who genuinely seek to work constructively with the rest of the world – ZERO such interests exist in any significant degree in the US at the moment – this will take a generation or more, if it is even possible;

4. The rest of the world dreams of normality and returning to the “status quo,” but as the US has demonstrated with Ukraine, Iran, Syria, Libya, Iraq, and its growing confrontation with Russia and China directly – the interests running the US are only getting more desperate and dangerous – they will NEVER – accept defeat or compromise;

5. Any decision made by Moscow or Beijing or anyone else in regards to the US believing somehow the multipolar world has a seat at whatever table US interests rule from and will eventually be respected and accepted by these interests – are likewise dangerously delusional and will lead their people, and possibly the entire planet to ruination;

6. We can only hope that Moscow and its allies understand all of this – and are only dragging their feet to buy time and manipulate the US in turn – that this is their own version of uncompromising insistence on a better world in the same way the US insists on destroying it;

7. Unfortunately, I have met far too many people who constantly fall for Washington’s game of musical chairs through elections, the perception that the White House or Congress make decisions, that the people running US policy are reasonable and that they and their “allies” (proxies/client states) are guided by self-interest rather than deep, supremacist ideology and blind greed that short-circuits everything up to and including self-preservation.

Because of these deep misconceptions across the multipolar world, strategy to deal with the danger US special interests pose constantly and consistently falls far short and repeatedly ends in failure and all the tragedy that comes with it;

This is one of these junctures I sincerely hope I’m wrong about…

🇺🇸🇷🇺 Regarding US-Russian Negotiations

1. The US CANNOT be negotiated with – no matter what “leverage” anyone including Russia “thinks” they have over the US – the US only seeks space and time to reassert itself – no level of betrayal is beneath them (for more information please… https://t.co/ba5ME9nehv

— Brian Berletic (@BrianJBerletic) August 9, 2025


On the US-Russian High Level Negotiations

Why would Russia have any serious negotiations with the US when nothing in the US has fundamentally changed regarding its overall geopolitical objectives (primacy) and the fact that it has used negotiations (just this year) as cover for decapitation strikes on another nation (Iran)?

The US itself has openly said it does not desire peace in Ukraine – but to freeze the conflict so it can destroy Russia’s ally China before circling back around to deal with Russia later…

The US will use these negotiations as it always does to try to place Russia in the most difficult position possible, continue the war by using any number of its proxies to act “independently” just as it had Israel do vs. Iran – and Russia will find itself in a worse position than it already is in now.

The US – in its current state – cannot be negotiated with. The better an offer proposed by the US, the bigger the trap laid.

Matters must be resolved in such a way that it leaves the US no other possible option but what the world requires to finally live in peace, stability, and prosperity.

This must be done through military and economic superiority independent of any relationship with or retaliation from the US.

Anything short of this seen as a possible way to reason with the US is dangerous delusion and will end in tragedy.

On the US-Russian High Level Negotiations

Why would Russia have any serious negotiations with the US when nothing in the US has fundamentally changed regarding its overall geopolitical objectives (primacy) and the fact that it has used negotiations (just this year) as cover for…

— Brian Berletic (@BrianJBerletic) August 8, 2025


https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/08/ ... yal-again/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Aug 12, 2025 2:53 pm

Arguments for peace or war
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 12/08/2025

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One day closer to the summit, where European countries fear that the outcome of the war will be determined without their presence or Zelensky's, the various actors continue trying to put their cards on the table to influence, as much as possible, what will happen on Friday in Alaska. Today, and waiting to see if the tactics for the final hours leading up to the summit will change following the telephone meeting between European leaders and Donald Trump, the Ukrainian discourse consists of the ad nauseam repetition of three main ideas: insisting that it is not an obstacle to peace, demanding an unconditional ceasefire from Russia, and reaching out, by whatever means possible, to its allies for guarantees of future protection. In his conversation yesterday with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Zelensky referred to the current situation as "a moment when there is finally a diplomatic possibility to end the war. Instead of demonstrating its willingness to seek a ceasefire, Russia only shows its desire to continue the occupation and the killings." Ukraine is claiming that it accepted the ceasefire ordered by Trump last March, a measure that neither kyiv nor Brussels wanted and which assumed Moscow would not accept. It was an unconditional truce imposed without prior negotiation and without any promise of a diplomatic process to end the war through a definitive resolution. Therefore, Russia, stronger than Ukraine on the front lines, had no incentive to submit to Trump's will.

This Ukrainian bluff has paid off, allowing Ukraine to continue portraying Russia as an obstacle to progress, demanding concessions from Moscow, and successfully winning Donald Trump over to its side—an important consideration given that the continued supply of military supplies necessary for war or for the armed peace the day after depends on it. However, despite the rhetoric of defending peace, the conditions demanded by Ukraine guarantee that a negotiated ceasefire between the two warring countries cannot take place, something Zelensky compensates for with rhetoric and demands that Russia come to the negotiating table, where it already sits. As was the case with the United States against Iran, the order to negotiate is merely a euphemism for coming to the negotiating table to accept the dictates of Western countries, something that can only be done from a position of strength that Zelensky lacks.

Ukraine's relative weakness is reflected on the front lines, despite attempts by Kiev, European countries, and allied think tanks to gloss over this reality in an attempt to mitigate the concessions Ukraine will inevitably have to make in the event of an agreement between the United States and Russia, which Donald Trump has already made clear he would impose on Zelensky. "Next Friday will be important because it will test Putin's seriousness about ending this terrible war," said the Secretary General of NATO in an interview with ABC . NATO is an organization accustomed to being on the aggressor's side and militarily superior, and therefore unfamiliar with the type of negotiation this war requires. Despite the nervousness caused in Ukraine, the EU, and the United Kingdom by the possibility of an agreement between Russia and the United States that would not please Brussels or Kiev, European capitals as a whole continue to insist on a resolution to the war that does not correspond to reality on the front lines, not even in the rear. The EU and Ukraine continue to insist on imposing sanctions with the same confidence after 18 packages as when they imposed the first one, smilingly proclaiming that it would mean the defeat of the Russian economy. Above all, the European countries insist that territorial concessions cannot be made under any circumstances.

“Surprising for Europeans, this phrase reflects the age-old logic of war. The battlefield decides the outcome of the war,” said former French diplomat Gérard Araud, who should not be suspected of pro-Russian sympathies but merely pragmatism. Macron's former ambassador to the United Nations was responding to lobbyist Ian Bremmer's remarks, in which he asserted that “it is impossible to imagine any other NATO member describing Russia's invasion of Ukraine as territory won on the battlefield.” Bremmer, one of the many pro-Ukrainian commentators on this war, reacted angrily to the remarks of Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, who had sought to calm the turbulent mood by insisting that “large portions or sectors that have not been won or fought for on the battlefield will not be handed over.” Whitaker's remarks complement Donald Trump's statements over the weekend, who spoke of territory swaps to improve the standing of both sides—a questionable idea, but one that suggests the changes he envisions for the de facto border will be far smaller than European countries currently fear.

A clear indicator of the current situation and future prospects is the stance of the most belligerent hawks. Among them, Lindsey Graham regularly stands out, having made numerous media appearances these days. Without forgetting his pro-Ukrainian sympathies, the US senator stated, forgetting that Russia is also part of Europe, that "World War III can be prevented if we continue to arm Ukraine, so that Russia is stopped by the most powerful army in Europe right now, which is Ukraine." Arming kyiv is not a unanimous opinion among Trumpists, as was made clear yesterday by JD Vance's remarks, who insisted on disengaging the United States from arms supplies and leaving it to the discretion of European countries, which will also have to bear the costs. However, the existence of newly created mechanisms for European NATO countries to cover the cost of any new weapons they wish to send to Ukraine indicates that the United States will not stop supplying weapons, so the scenario of a heavily armed peace remains the most likely. Still, despite his stated willingness to fight to the last Ukrainian for a victory over Russia, even Lindsey Graham seems to have given up on accepting a freeze on the military conflict. “I want to be frank. Ukraine is not going to expel all the Russians. And Russia is not going to march on Kiev. In the end, there will be an exchange of territories,” the warmongering senator declared, in a rare display of realism. Donald Trump spoke similarly yesterday, calling the question of whether Ukraine could defeat Russia, which he called a “warrior country,” “stupid.” “That’s what they’re doing; they fight a lot of wars. They defeated Hitler and Napoleon,” he insisted. History isn't an argument for determining the outcome of current wars, but the commentary underscores what Trumpism has made clear: Ukraine will not defeat Russia, and the war must end.

“I was a little annoyed that Zelensky said, ‘I need constitutional approval.’ That is, he has approval to go to war and kill everyone, but he needs approval to do a land swap. Because there will be a land swap,” he added, reiterating the idea he raised last week to European allies. Unhappy with the situation, continental partners will have the opportunity on Wednesday to “coordinate positions” with Donald Trump, whom they will undoubtedly pressure to make the toughest possible offer to Russia. From EU authorities, the message continues to be framed within the hard line of Kaja Kallas or Friedrich Merz. Unable to offer any alternative to continuing the war, European countries insist on the same recipe that has failed for three years. “Transatlantic unity, support for Ukraine, and pressure on Russia are the way we will end this war and prevent future Russian aggression in Europe,” Kallas wrote yesterday, confusing advertising slogans with viable policies.

"Any agreement between the United States and Russia must include Europe and Ukraine," insisted the head of EU diplomacy, who seems to have forgotten the existence of bilateral relations. Her comment is relevant not only in terms of whether or not the war will continue and the conditions required of the parties to agree to a ceasefire, but above all with regard to the lifting of sanctions and the situation in which Russia would be left, readmitted or not to Western international relations, if a truce is consolidated. This is also the concern of the German chancellor, who, once again, has been naive in his statements. Merz, the most honest leader at the G7 summit, where he openly admitted that Israel was doing “our dirty work” against Iran, stated in an interview last weekend that “we cannot accept that on territorial issues negotiations or even decisions are taken between the United States and Russia without European or Ukrainian participation,” adding that “we cannot accept that the entire European security architecture is threatened by Russia. Therefore, there can be no peace if Russia is rewarded for its aggression.”

In other words, there can be no peace except on the terms set by European countries, an option so remote that even the NATO Secretary General seems to accept the resolution that was always the most likely: freezing the front. "With regard to recognizing, for example, possibly in a future agreement, that Russia de facto controls some territories in Ukraine, it has to be a de facto recognition and not a political one, not a de jure one," Rutte stated in statements to ABC . Considering that, apart from that brief lapse in which the United States offered Russia US—and not European—recognition only of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, and that this option has not been revived, Rutte's current rhetoric seems to signal NATO's resignation to the reality set by the front. There, although Zelensky insisted yesterday that Ukraine is maintaining its positions and even attacking Russian forces, the situation is accelerating on the main front in Donbass. “Russia surpasses Ukraine in drones and achieves its largest advance on the front since 2024,” wrote Cristian Segura yesterday in El País in relation to the practically surprise advance that Russian troops have made, quickly and effectively, towards Dobropilia, a town north of Pokrovsk which, as the article indicates, was 55 kilometers from the front in August 2022, two months ago it was 25 kilometers and at the time of publication, it had been reduced to just 11. The distance is now even shorter.

Faced with stubborn reality, Ukraine clings to arguments such as its deep understanding of Vladimir Putin's character to warn the United States that Russia does not want peace, but rather to gain time. "We understand the Russians' intention to try to deceive the United States; we will not allow it," Zelensky said yesterday, seeking to give the argument a twist that would attract Donald Trump's attention. Vladimir Putin wants to deceive not only Ukraine, but, above all, the president of the United States himself.

The second wild card is demanding more from the European Union. “Today I had a meaningful conversation with Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo. We discussed the progress of Ukraine's EU accession negotiations. I emphasized that Ukraine has met all the necessary conditions for the opening of Group 1 (“Fundamentals”) and has continued constructive consultations to move forward at this stage. We believe that the accession negotiations between Ukraine and Moldova should move forward together. I am confident that Ukraine's EU accession will strengthen the long-term security of all of Europe. We look forward to Finland's continued support and cooperation in achieving a consistent and fair approach on this path to accession,” wrote Yulia Svyrydenko, Prime Minister of Ukraine. Kyiv's strategy is clear: now that the threat of a peace it dislikes is looming again, it will accelerate its accession to the European Union, where it is gaining the accession benefits it has not yet found in NATO. One need only recall that one of the significant advances highlighted by Ursula von der Leyen to praise Ukraine's progress in meeting the Brussels conditions was press freedom. In a country that has spent over a decade censoring media outlets it considers enemy—"pro-Russian" or left-wing—harming, imprisoning, or even murdering inconvenient journalists, and centralizing its news coverage to leave it in the hands of the government, this statement sounds like a macabre joke.

A political, not a military, bloc, the EU is not the main objective of the kyiv authorities, who long before the Russian invasion sought the military presence of NATO countries on their territory, but it is seen as a certain guarantee of security. The logic is that, in the event of a Russian attack, European countries could not remain on the sidelines. Naively or not, since all countries have declined to become directly involved in this war against a nuclear power, Ukraine seems to view EU membership as a substitute for NATO's desired Article V. Ukraine's strength has always been what its allies were willing to offer. Ukraine's future status after a possible ceasefire agreement will remain that of a dependent country that will demand continued protection from its partners, not limited to the flow of arms.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/12/argum ... la-guerra/

Google Translator

*******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The Turkish newspaper Aydınlık has published bank accounts of companies in the UAE, where Zelensky’s entourage transfers $50 million monthly.

The companies are linked to Andriy Gmyrin, the alleged administrator of funds obtained through corruption.

"Both companies are based in the UAE. For the first time in the world press, we disclose the accounts in the UAE to which Kyiv's corrupt funds were transferred: GFM Investment Group LLC (OAE No. 967369, No. 11707266, Emirates NBD bank account no: AE 210260001015792940701). Gmyrin Family Holding Limited (OAE No. ICC20210636, No. 11664590)," the publication says.

The publication notes that since last year Ukraine has been rocked by accusations of corruption, which could "hit the Kiev government in the heart."

@rian_ru

***

Colonelcassad
Trump on "territory swap":

"I was a little confused by Zelenskyy saying, 'Well, I need to get constitutional approval.' So he has permission to wage war and kill everybody, but he needs permission to swap territories because there's going to be some kind of territory swap. I know that through Russia and from talking to everybody."

***

Colonelcassad
Trump got carried away:😀

So, I'm going to talk to Vladimir Putin and tell him, "You have to end this war, you have to end it." I'm not going to mess with him.

***

Colonelcassad
Hungary assured Russia that it would do everything possible to prevent the EU from trying to prevent the success of the Putin-Trump meeting (c) Hungarian Foreign Ministry

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – August 11th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Aug 11, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "Units of the "Center" Group have completed the liberation of the settlement of Lunacharskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic through active combat operations."

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The village of Lunacharskoye (Ukrainian: Fedorovka, 48°22′53″N 37°17′14″E, approximately 60 residents) was another stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, forming part of the defensive area Boykovka-Zatishok (Suvorovo)-Lunacharskoye (Fedorovka), now liberated by Russian Armed Forces. This sector covered a section of the right bank of the Kazenny Torets River, control of which enables further offensive operations toward the settlements of Belitskoye and Rodinskoye—key logistical nodes in the AFU's defensive network north of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).

The AFU's redeployment to reinforce Krasnoarmeysk itself has weakened the flanks of the Krasnoarmeysk sector, a vulnerability exploited by Russian military command. On the AFU's left flank, our units have breached defensive lines and are advancing toward Kucherov Yar. Active operations are underway against the strongholds of Shakhovo and Novoye Shakhovo to secure the flanks of advancing Russian forces. To the east, pressure continues against the heavily fortified enemy position at Sofiyevka, while clearing operations are confirmed in the mining settlement of Krasny Liman (Chervonyi Lyman) to the south.

The enemy reports activity by Russian reconnaissance groups in the Zolotoy Kolodez and Dobropolye areas.

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Konstantinovka to Krasnoarmeysk ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

The operational flexibility available to Russian forces allows command to counter AFU resistance with a full spectrum of measures while retaining the initiative. This compels the enemy to "patch holes" by stretching its limited reserves thin across the entire contact line, inevitably degrading their combat posture in this sector of the Special Military Operation.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ugust-11th

******

The Yermak enigma I

Russian agent? Scheming court viziers. History of the Office. KGB in Kabul. Azeri mountain Jews. Wrestling. Anaphylactic shock in Forte dei Marmi.
Events in Ukraine
Aug 11, 2025

Donald: Enigmas never age, have you noticed that?

Jeffrey: As a matter of fact, it was clear to me the last time I saw you.

Trump: A pal is a wonderful thing.


Today’s article is about a true enigma of Ukrainian politics. Zelensky’s most wonderful pal. According to the Financial Times, they even sleep in the same bunker room.

Andrey Yermak. Perhaps the most powerful man in Ukraine. Zelensky’s producer.

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In the context of the latest wave of rumors about Ukraine peace talks, what better time to take a closer look at Ukraine’s most important diplomat - not that he’s ever occupied any formal diplomatic posts.

Yermak has been the subject of countless hit-pieces in the western media. The recent attempt to remove the independence of the western-created anti-corruption organs led to a spike in such anti-Yermak content. USAID-funded Ukrainian media name Yermak as the mastermind of the July 23 anti-NABU law. Yermak, however, also had the gall to congratulate parliament for voting through the second law repealing the first law.

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Source

However, this recent anti-Yermak content is hardly the first of its kind.

Back in 2021, the MI6 cutout Bellingcat was hard at work forming the narrative that ‘Yermak is a Russian agent’ conspiring with the Kremlin to bring about Ukraine’s ‘capitulation’. Ukrainian liberal nationalists (particularly those around ex-president Petro Poroshenko) constantly cited said Bellingcat pieces in their attempt to engineer some sort of coup or anti-Yermak/Zelensky mass movement. I wrote about the affair here.

One of the highlights was when Vasily Burba, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate until 2020, thunderously announced in late 2021 that ‘we have a mole in our highest positions working for Russia’. He claimed that this mole had leaked information on Ukrainian covert operations to Russia. This was taken by most to refer to Yermak. Yermak had told Burba to delay a major anti-Russian covert op back in July 2020, leading to the failure of said operation (the entire affair became known as ‘Wagnergate’).

Defining Yermak
But what really is Yermak?

When Zelensky won the presidency in 2019, Yermak had the fairly lowly role of presidential advisor. The country’s journalists and politicians had never heard of the man.

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In this famous photo just after Zelensky’s inauguration, Yermak can be barely seen wearing sunglasses in the back.
But by February 2020, Yermak had managed to take control of the crucial position of head of the Office of the President.

This post does not exist in the Ukrainian constitution. Historically, however, there have always been Yermak figures - theoretically secretaries, in reality wielding unlimited power. Perhaps this is dictated by the chaotic nature of Ukrainian politics, where the equidistant power of rival oligarchic clans paralyzes policy. A grey cardinal is necessary to move past democratic deadlock.

Thus, instead of parliament or the cabinet of ministers, Ukrainian presidents have always ended up relying on an all-powerful Yermak figure. The institute has had two names - originally it was the Presidential Administration. until 2019, when Zelensky renamed it the Office of the President. It is often known as Bankova, for the street on which it is located.

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Bankova. The Office is on the left. The famous House with Chimaeras is on right.

No matter what the name of the institution, each president’s powerful chief schemer has always topped ratings of most unpopular public figure. Polls show Yermak is distrusted by 61% of Ukrainians.

President Kuchma (1994-2005) had Dmitry Tabachnik and, later, Viktor Medvedchuk (who remained highly influential in Ukrainian politics until his deportation to Russia in 2022). In liberal nationalist circles, these two men are considered the greatest villains of post-soviet Ukrainian history.

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Tabachnik (left) and Kuchma (speaking)

But the pro-western President Yuschenko (2005-2010) had Viktor Baloga. Baloga’s family is a powerful clan that has controlled politics in the smuggling-ridden western Zakkarpattya region ever since the 1990s.

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Yuschenko (left) and Baloga. Nationalist media point out that Baloga arranged large sales of soviet missile systems to Russia.

President Yanukovych (2010-2014) had Sergei Levochkin. Levochkin remains an extremely powerful play today, both because of his complex political networks, and his partial ownership of the Inter media company. I’ve written here and here about Levochkin’s modern relations with Yermak and his team.

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Yanukovych (left) and Levochkin. The ex-president later accused Levochkin of betraying him by arranging violent provocations in late 2013, fueling the anti-government protest movement that ousted Yanukovych. I wrote about that here.

President Poroshenko (2014-2019) had Boris Lozhkin. While his tycoon boss made a big show of ‘fighting against corruption and the oligarchy’, fellow oligarch Lozhkin kept busy conducting secret meetings with the country’s business elite. Western-funded media constantly moaned about Lozhkin - he demonstrated that Ukraine had yet to ‘transition to a civilized market economy’ (ie, castrate domestic capital and totally open markets to western imports).

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Lozhkin (left) and Poroshenko

These viziers created their own informal power networks, both skirting and controlling formal seats of power. Ministers and other official holders of office turned into mere executors of the will of the all-powerful Office/Administration/Bankova.

Yermak is hence simply the latest representative of an illustrious breed.

Nevertheless, all accounts agree that he has centralized power in the country to an unprecedented extent in Ukrainian history. He has apparently been offered all sort of official posts in the cabinet of ministers and elsewhere - he turned them down. He prefers to possess undefined powers.

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I’ve written about Yermak before. In that article, I focused on his strategy of emotional closeness to Zelensky, as well as his rise to power through his unofficial role as top negotiator with Moscow. It was this latter role that first led to liberal nationalists calling him a ‘Russian agent’, precisely because of their fear that Yermak would come to some kind of dastardly agreement with Moscow. By capitulation, of course, they meant implementing the Minsk agreements that Ukraine signed in 2015, thereby returning the ‘treasonous’ pro-Russian, anti-NATO breakaway eastern regions to the Ukrainian body politic.

Yermak’s power has always been in his emotional capacities, his ability to finely attune himself to the capricious mood swings of his boss. Before Zelensky won the presidency in 2019, Yermak was a relatively successful film producer - the favored metaphor of his relationship with Zelensky is that of the star and the producer.

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One of my favorite photos of Yermak, from Zelensky’s September 2024 Trump Tower meeting

Instead of boring bureaucracy, Yermak has always been good at delivering Zelensky what he wants - fast decisions that make for good PR. Maybe they aren’t ideal in the long run, but that isn’t the point.

Yermak has always focused on two main roles.

First, his various diplomatic efforts. As we’ll see in today’s article, his time in the Office has allowed him to finally put to practice the diplomatic education he received in the 90s.

His projects in this realm have always bypassed the ministry of foreign affairs, to the impotent frustration of foreign ministers Vadym Pristaiko (2019-2020) and Dmytro Kuleba (2020-2024). Nowadays, the ministry is under control of Yermak loyalist Andriy Sybiha.

Examples of Yermak’s diplomacy are his various secret and semi-secret negotiations with Russia in the 2019-20 period, his 2020 secret talks with Rudy Giulani, his semi-entertaining 2024 ‘Geneva Peace Summit’ charade, and his ongoing shuttle diplomacy with the Americans and just about everyone else. The press photo from the Geneva Peace summit famously featured Yermak eclipsing Kamala Harris.

Andriy Yermak: Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky's right-hand man polarises opinion and fuels concerns over creeping authoritarianism
His diplomatic genius hasn’t been particularly appreciated, however.

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Yermak’s international activities seem to have been of his own volition. According to the western-financed Ukrainska Pravda, Yermak’s role in the Russia negotiations of 2019 was not agreed upon by the US embassy. In UP’s servile atlanticist mind, this is a condemnation.

Second, choosing cadres. Yermak doesn’t care that much about actual domestic politics, he finds it boring - paperwork isn’t very appealing to Zelensky. But it is important for him that his Office is full of loyal puppets.

Correspondingly, he spends much of his time whispering to Zelensky suspicious facts about anyone not entirely loyal to Yermak. Ukrainian media quotes a running joke in the corridors of power that ‘Zelensky, as president, has the power to choose which of Yermak’s candidates to give official posts’.

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It is worth dwelling on the fact that Yermak seems somewhat apolitical. His main goal seems to be control. That’s why the people that Yermak brings to office are such a motley bunch. On the one hand you have radical eugenicist neoliberals like Halyna Tretyakova, the social policy official who called to sterilize the unemployed so as to reduce the number of ‘low-quality children’. On the other hand, Yermak surrounds himself with people from Yanukovych’s supposedly ‘pro-Russian, pro-soviet’ administration. What matters isn’t the politics, it’s loyalty.

Yermak also fought a long battle to take control of the cabinet of ministers, which he finally won in mid-July of this year. After literally years of rumors, Yermak’s pet Yuliya Sviridenko became prime minister. Denys Shmyhal, the man she replaced, lacked any political ambitions, which is why he stayed in his post a record 5 years.

However, the fact that Shmyhal still wasn’t entirely under Yermak’s control annoyed him, particularly because of a number of signs that Shmyhal was cooperating with Yermak’s last real competitor in the Zelensky elite, head of Zelensky’s parliamentary fraction David Arakhamia.

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Arakhamia is one of my favorite characters. I urge you to read my article on his bizarre cyber-criminal/Microsoft past, one of the most interesting topics I’ve researched.

Anyway, that’s the standard view of Yermak put forward by Ukrainian liberal media - a control freak with a fixation on diplomatic stunts.

Now, I wanted to look at something a bit sexier - Yermak’s spookier side. It’s impossible not to indulge in such an approach, given what a total no-name Yermak was in Ukrainian politics back in 2019, and what stratospheric heights he has reached since.

There are four conspiratorial approaches to the Yermak enigma.

The first is the Kremlin angle. The second is that Yermak is an agent of British influence. The third is Yermak as an oligarchic puppet. The last approach is to see Yermak as the latest representative of the decades-old Ukrainian deep state - equally pro-western, pro-Russian, and pro-oligarch.

Today we’ll take a look at the first, most popular theory of Yermak’s allegiances. It will take us from the KGB’s operations in 1980s Kabul to the Azerbaijani mountain Jews that occupy an outsized role in modern Russian politics. Olympic wrestling champions. And finally, the mysterious 2019 poisoning of a Russo-Ukrainian socialite in an Italian resort town.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... k-enigma-i

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Russia Downs Dozens Ukrainian Drones Overnight

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Ukrainian drone. X/ @PnPPolitics

August 11, 2025 Hour: 8:42 am

‘Response teams are working at the site where debris fell,’ Moscow Mayor Sobyanin said.
On Monday, Russian Defense MInistry confirmed that its air defense forces intercepted and destroyed 32 Ukrainian drones overnight and a further seven in the morning.

Seven of the drones were downed over the Belgorod Region, five each over the Bryansk and Kaluga Regions, four over Crimea, two each over the Oryol, Kursk, Voronezh, Ryazan and Moscow Regions, and one over the Tula Region.

On Monday morning, the Defense Ministry reported that air defenses shot down another seven Ukrainian drones. As a result of the drone attack on the Nizhny Novgorod Region, one person was killed and two were injured, the regional governor, Gleb Nikitin, wrote on his Telegram channel.

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said that seven drones heading toward the Russian capital were downed in the past hour on Monday morning. “Response teams are working at the site where debris fell,” he wrote on Telegram

https://www.telesurenglish.net/russia-d ... overnight/

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KYIV PREPARES TO DISRUPT ALASKA MEETING, AND UKRAINE ALONE TURNS INTO A GRAVEYARD OF COLOMBIAN MERCENARIES

Ukraine has already intensified its shelling of peaceful cities and is preparing to disrupt the meeting between Putin and Trump by all possible means.
Dr Ignacy Nowopolski
Aug 10, 2025
Meanwhile, the Russian army is already reaching the border between the Dnipropetrovsk region and the DPR, where Zelensky liked to take photos, and tightening the ring around Pokrovsk.

In the context of preparations for negotiations between Russia and the United States in Alaska, Zelensky, who was not invited there, is trying his best to emphasize the importance of the planned summit in accordance with his usual barbaric shelling of peaceful cities. The number of such attacks increased several times during August. Only yesterday in the Belgorod region, 3 people were killed as a result of Ukrainian drone attacks, and in the 10 days of August – 7 people, dozens were injured, including children.

Last night, Russian air defense crews destroyed 121 enemy drones over various regions of the country. In the Saratov region, a drone crashed in the courtyard of a residential building, killing one person, injuring several, setting cars on fire and damaging the facades of buildings.

Another Ukrainian drone exploded on the territory of an oil refinery, a large fire broke out. Military experts warn that during the week, UKRAINIANS will try to demonstrate the maximum intensity and geography of attacks. It is possible that it will try to break through Moscow's air defenses or "surprise the Muscovites" – it will attack a region far from the front.

But any attempts by Zelensky to disrupt negotiations between Putin and Trump to end the conflict in Ukraine will only tighten the noose around his neck.

This will lead to Trump's refusal to support Ukraine and the collapse of the Western anti-Russian coalition. In the face of problems on the front and growing distrust of the government in the country, the regime in Kiev will collapse and Russia will be able to take control not of a part, but of the whole of Ukraine.

– notes former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Oleg Tsarev.


In parallel with unmanned aerial vehicle attacks, terrorist attacks in the rear have become more frequent. In this regard, the enemy has been probing the Bryansk region for several days. The day before, a special forces unit tried to infiltrate the Klimowski area, but to no avail. Russian border guards and scouts from the Bryansk group detected the enemy in time and pushed the saboteurs into a minefield with heavy fire, then finished them off with howitzers, rocket launchers and mortars.

Meanwhile, Russian attacks continue to remain active. The Dnipropetrovsk region was particularly badly affected. Last night, Russian unmanned aerial vehicles bombed the railway station in Sinelnikovo with drones, and train traffic in the area was stopped.


The nightmare of the Ukrainian armed forces

Slowly but steadily, the encirclement of Pokrovsk continues. Russian troops, based on Boykivka, broke through to the eastern outskirts of Nikanorivka and towards Novy Chess, where counterattacks continue. In addition, the Russians have expanded their control of the territory in Leontowicze and are advancing towards Trojanda.

There is panic in Ukrainian public opinion: the gradual occupation of the territories around Pokrovsk is a reserve for the future capture of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. For example, if Russian troops manage to break through to Dobropol by blocking the T-05-14 highway, it will automatically put Pokrovsk in a semi-circle, and with a bit of luck and increased combat operations, in a few weeks the question of creating a cauldron will arise, unless, of course, Kyiv decides to withdraw its troops.

The artillery is very active, there is plenty of loitering munitions, such as the "Lancet" or the "Molnija". There are also plenty of FPV drones, mostly fiber optic. And literally at every intersection closer to the front line, overnight, the so-called "waiting" on fiber optics appear, trying to disrupt our logistics.

- lamented the head of intelligence of the 4th missile and artillery brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Rubezh" Daniil Borisenko on a vision in the Ukrainian media.

Who trains Colombian mercenaries?

Recently, there have been increasing reports of huge losses among Latinos who came to Ukraine to fight Russia. Zelensky no longer has enough of his own people and has to use the help of bandits from the other side of the world. However, their fighters are, to put it mildly, weak – hence the mountains of "two hundred", many of whose bodies cannot even be transported to their native Colombia. The situation was pointed out by the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev.

It is clear that the geeks of Medellin and Sinaloa are close to everyone who eats their snow-white products on Bankowa (Zelenski residence). But Americans, judging by an article in The New York Times in August 2008, should think twice. Mercenaries are taught everything, including how to operate unmanned aerial vehicles, which can be very useful in delivering drugs to the United States. This is much more effective than planes and submarines.

It should be noted that next week, when Putin and Trump are to hold talks, may be disrupted by serious provocations. Many forces in the world consider the meeting of the two leaders unacceptable. They are able to do anything to disrupt conversations. This is a serious threat, especially considering that they have an entire zombie terrorist state in their pocket, ready to follow their master's every order.

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... ka-meeting

Google Translator

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Trump's Farmland
August 11, 19:10

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Some more of Trump's feverish fantasies.

1. The Russians would have been in Kiev in 4 hours if they had taken the highway. But the Russian general decided to drive through farmland. I don't know who this general is, but knowing Vladimir, he's probably dead.
2. In Ukraine, 88% of people want a peace deal ( https://t.me/navideovidno/91044 ) with Russia, according to polls. I can leave and wish you luck, and then the peace talks on Ukraine will be over.

3. The meeting in Alaska with Putin will be more of a preliminary one. Putin is coming to our country, unlike us coming to his country. Within the first couple of minutes of meeting with Putin, he will understand whether a deal on Ukraine is possible.

4. The next meeting will be with Zelensky and Putin, or Zelensky, Putin and me. I want to organize a meeting between the two leaders. I think my meeting with Putin will be good, but it could also be bad. I will put both of them, Zelensky and Putin, in the same room and wait for them to decide. The meeting in Alaska with Putin will be more of a preliminary.

5. Zelensky has received approval to start a war and kill everyone, but he needs approval for a land swap. There will be some land swaps. Russia has occupied some important territories, and we will try to return some of that territory to Ukraine.

6. "Russia is a warring country. That's what they do, they fight a lot of wars. My friend said that Russia is tough because they just keep fighting. They defeated Hitler and Napoleon. They've been doing that for a long time." I allow for normalization of trade relations between Russia and the United States.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10008511.html

Breakthrough at Dobropillya
August 11, 22:05

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The enemy has actually confirmed a breakthrough of the front north of Krasnoarmeysk. Russian attack aircraft and sabotage and reconnaissance groups continue to actively spread north, creating a threat of envelopment from the west of the enemy group in the Shakhovo area, and also approaching Dobropolye.

It is very likely that we are witnessing a kind of remake of the Ocheretinsky breakthrough, where the Russian Armed Forces managed to find a weakness in the enemy's extended front. To stabilize the situation, the enemy may need to quickly redeploy several brigades from other directions to build a new front line in the Dobropolye area.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10008783.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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blindpig
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Aug 13, 2025 12:00 pm

Dobropilia and the dynamics of the front
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 08/13/2025

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In times of political turmoil, constant recriminations about who is the obstacle to peace, and general noise linked to the United States' position, arms supplies, and unviable proposals for conflict resolution, the front's daily life loses presence in the headlines, even more so when the Western media lacks good news to offset the concern surrounding the diplomatic process. Since practically 2022, when the initial Russian offensive petered out in the summer and the Ukrainian offensive subsequently culminated with the seizure of Russian-controlled territories in Kharkiv and the right bank of the Dnieper, the prevailing theory has been that the front is at a standstill and that Russian advances, when they occur, are slow and enormously costly in terms of personnel and material losses. And yet, it is Russia that is advancing. To the certainty that there will be no complete Russian victory, that Valery Gerasimov's troops will not raise their flag in kyiv, Kharkiv or Odessa, is finally beginning to be added the idea that Oleksandr Syrsky's troops will not be able to raise theirs in Sevastopol, Yalta, Donetsk or Lugansk either.

The confidence of Ukraine and those who advocate peace through force in the literal sense is based on the belief that the front will always remain static or move at the leisurely pace with which Kiev can defend its fortified cities for as long as necessary to inflict casualties and wear down the Russian army, then withdraw when the towns have lost the strategic status that had justified their staunch defense. In other words, the ground war will not change and will always be able to be kept under control. An example of this is a comment by Yaroslav Trofimov, a correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, in response to a post by Leonid Ragozin, in which the Russian opposition journalist stated that Russia believes it "can take the northern Donetsk conurbation in the relatively near future," which is key to the regional capital's water supply. “What makes you think Russia could take over northern Donetsk in the near future?” he asked, to emphasize the official line, “on current trends, it could take several years and hundreds of thousands of Russian troops.” The DeepState map Ragozin used to justify his opinion already showed an arrow pointing north toward Dobropilia, but the rapid advance confirmed on Sunday had not yet been admitted.

Before the mainstream media discovered the existence of Dobropilia, the town had already begun appearing in war reports as a clear Russian target. The fact that the threat of Russian drones was reaching there from the still-distant front was a clear and ominous sign that the Russian offensive, in reality the continuation of the war of attrition, was heading in that direction. However, despite the constant mention of the town by social media accounts that track positions and even shell impacts from both sides in real time, the advance that began to be announced over the weekend seems to have come as a surprise to the major presses. In just 48 hours, the general narrative has gone from one of a stalled front and zero progress to sounding the alarm and presenting the situation as practically hopeless. Until these last few hours, Ukrainian discourse, even among those following the war or fighting in it, had focused on highlighting poor Russian tactics, which caused catastrophic losses in their ranks while failing to achieve any of their objectives. Above all, it had mocked the way Russia had practically abandoned the use of armored vehicles in favor of options previously considered unorthodox. With barely a transition, journalists, bloggers, and even soldiers have gone from laughing at the Russian hordes dying without even being able to take insignificant towns to the current nervousness over the possibility of losing Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, one of the two large urban agglomerations in Donetsk still under Ukrainian control.

“It’s hard to avoid certain doubts when covering the war. Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels constantly alternate between absolute confidence and catastrophic resignation. One day they say they’re killing the brainless enemy in industrial quantities, and the next, that they’re being massacred in the same numbers by the cunning enemy, assisted by their own treacherous generals,” wrote Peter Korotaev, author of the blog Events in Ukraine , yesterday . The comment is relevant not only because of the propaganda of the parties and the lack of certainty about when complaints about defeats are simply signs of fatigue or arguments to demand more resources from the military command, but also because of the nature of war. “It’s becoming increasingly difficult to map the war due to the nature of the fighting. Often there’s no real front line, but rather a vast gray zone,” explained Rob Lee, one of the most cited experts on this war, partly to justify his inability to detect the emerging Russian advance toward Dobropilia, a few days ago. In his message, he referred to Ukrainian withdrawals to avoid engaging Russian infantry and questioned Ukrainian control over this entire gray zone , not in front of the Ukrainian positions, but behind this newly created defensive line.

Along the same lines, explaining how Russia has breached Ukraine's defenses northeast of Pokrovsk and specifically the advance toward Dobropiliia, Patricia Marins yesterday headlined: "Motorcycles, drones, and lots of bombs." "There are still many events ahead, and we must monitor the occupation of the newly established Ukrainian defensive trenches. Are there enough personnel to occupy them? Will the Ukrainians, with a limited number of troops, be able to hold these positions? Empty defensive lines mean nothing," she insisted.

Ukrainian concern about the developments on that sector of the front is evident. “ DeepState claims that the Russians could take Dobropilla before taking Pokrovsk. The former used to be the main supply base for the latter, but now that route is cut off, as is the road from Dobropilla to Kramatorsk. Taken together, this means that Ukraine will defend the north of the Donetsk region, including Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, after having already lost the west, a sparsely populated and therefore difficult-to-defend area. Moreover, the advance on Slavyansk from the northeast, through the Serebryanka Forest in the direction of Lyman, is gaining momentum,” Leonid Ragozin wrote yesterday, relying exclusively on Ukrainian sources. A sign of this worrying situation is that the developments around Dobropilia are being given more attention in Ukrainian sources than in Russian ones, perhaps more cautious given the certainty that no advance is definitive and that much remains to be consolidated, or simply aware that the current push north of Pokrovsk-Mirnograd is only part of a much larger battle. This is Ragozin's view, concluding that Russian tactics, much more efficient and planned than infantry-based advances in battles like the one at Artyomovsk, have a much broader objective. "This year, the Russian command is not fighting battles for Pokrovsk or Konstantinovka. It is fighting a battle for the entire Donetsk region. But in doing so, it is avoiding Bakhmut-style carnage."

If in the past Russia has been accused of excessively rigid, outdated, and inefficient methods of action, the current situation proves the opposite. “In recent weeks, I have seen images of Russian soldiers using animals and motorcycles to reinforce the front lines. The photos circulated, generating laughter and criticism. Well, the result is clear. Soviet doctrine, inherited by Russians and Ukrainians, emphasizes that logistics must adapt to the terrain and open avenues for infiltration units. In other words, it doesn't have to be aesthetically appealing or modern; it must be functional and effective. This is a lesson the West must learn, and Ukrainians must understand what to adopt from both doctrines, forgetting appearances, which the West tends to prioritize, and focusing instead on functionality and effectiveness,” wrote Patricia Marins to explain why this tactic, which NATO experts have repeatedly mocked, is now yielding good results.

The ability to adapt to the modern warfare environment is evident, and the Russian units bear little resemblance to those that embarked on the long trek to Kiev in huge convoys that were easily destroyed by Ukrainian artillery, or the large infantry assault groups that finally captured Artyomovsk, but paid an immense price in the form of destruction and human lives, primarily those of their own soldiers. Improvements to the Geran-2 drones, still known in the Western press as "Iranian Shahed drones," and the introduction of large numbers of fiber-optic drones have changed the way the fighting is currently taking place on the most important front, that of Donbass. As demonstrated by Russia's attempt to obtain the part of Donbass under kyiv's control in exchange for Ukrainian territories under its control in other regions, Donetsk is the main focus of the Russian offensive. No territory will be surrendered that has not been won or fought for, Donald Trump's ambassador to NATO insisted, referring to the unfeasible Russian proposal to obtain what it has not been able to achieve militarily. However, in recent hours, Russian progress has been such that experts see these days as the decisive moment in which the battle for northern Donetsk will be determined.

As usual, faced with the danger of a situation that is not yet critical, but which even Ukrainian sources admit could become so, the accusations are directed solely and exclusively at Oleksandr Syrsky, who also reacts predictably and sends his trusted troops to the area. While the Third Assault Brigade, that is, the Azov Brigade linked to Andriy Biletsky, was sent to cover the withdrawal from Avdeevka and subsequently to Kupyansk, this time Syrsky is clinging to the other Azov Brigade linked to Denis Prokopenko. Yesterday, confirming the information, the former Azov Brigade wrote that “a few days ago, the First Azov Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine assumed responsibility for the designated defense zone in the Pokrovsk sector. The situation remains complex and dynamic. The enemy is attempting to advance in this direction at the cost of significant losses in personnel and equipment. Corps units have planned and executed actions to block enemy forces in the area. Information on the results will be provided later.” Ukrainian authorities spoke in similar terms yesterday, after days of avoiding comment on the situation. "The spokesman for the General Staff emphasized that some groups have already been eliminated and the rest are in the process of being eliminated. Kovalov noted that the situation is difficult and dynamic," Ukrinform reported . A bad situation cannot be acknowledged without adding the tag of heavy enemy losses.

However, given the obvious shift in the territorial control map, even by Ukrainian sources, the official narrative now holds little value. After weeks of sources boasting about the number of lightly armed enemy sabotage groups advancing on motorcycles toward certain death, the breach in the Ukrainian lines northwest of Pokvrovsk-Mirnograd is no longer a joke for Ukrainian sources and the international media, who are unable to understand how it happened. "If Ukraine doesn't manage to eliminate a few hundred Russian soldiers—on foot and far from their own logistics—it's unlikely the Ukrainian army will be able to maintain control of the region in the long term," Bild journalist Julian Röepke stated yesterday, demonstrating that a decade of following the war hasn't taught him to observe events with even a modicum of objectivity.

“The operational and tactical situation in the Pokrovsk direction is gradually approaching the point where Pokrovsk and Mirnograd can no longer be saved. That critical moment has not yet arrived. But, unfortunately, everything points to it. The agglomeration can still be saved, but that cannot be achieved with frontal attacks—we have already tried! The enemy has long adapted to this. I send a big ‘salute’ to those who wear down their best units in senseless frontal attacks,” explained Bohdan Myroshnykov, from a much more rational position, who criticized the Ukrainian attitude until the situation became dangerous. The Ukrainian military blogger added that “while everyone was busy eliminating ‘sabotage and reconnaissance groups’ in Pokrovsk (including the military command), operational and tactical problems were emerging northeast of the city. Why do I put ‘sabotage and reconnaissance groups’ in quotation marks? Because they were not, and are not now, sabotage and reconnaissance groups, but rather small groups of enemy infantry that, under the clear escort of their drones, managed to penetrate deep into our commands. And when there are several dozen of these small groups, they can advance 10 to 15 kilometers in the same way.”

The Russian advances are real, significant, and much faster than in previous months. Rather than resembling the progress made at Artyomovsk, Chasov Yar, or even Avdeevka in the past, the changes on this sector of the front are reminiscent of the 2022 Popasnaya flower and the surprise Russian breakthrough on Ocheretino in 2024, which triggered a domino effect in which Russia finally managed to push Ukrainian troops away from Donetsk, so that the main city in Donbass was no longer within range of enemy artillery. “The next 72 hours will reveal much about the future of Donetsk,” Patricia Marins wrote yesterday. Ukraine has launched a narrative counteroffensive and is already downplaying the Russian advance, announcing the recovery of territories and, above all, sending reinforcements to an area it cannot afford to lose, especially this week, when its strength on the front will be used as an argument in the political squabble that is the peace negotiations. Although there is no triumphalism in Russian sources for the moment, the push toward Kupyansk, the rapid expansion of the zone of control northeast of Pokrovsk, and the advances toward Krasny Liman and Konstantinovka force Ukraine, for the first time since July 2014, to reconsider the defense of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/13/dobro ... el-frente/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
There is a real threat of the establishment of control of the Russian Federation over the entire Donetsk region. The situation in the Pokrovsk direction is uncontrollable: the Russian Armed Forces see their success and will probably transfer additional forces there , - Deputy Commander of the 3rd separate brigade "Azov" Zhorin.

***

Colonelcassad
Estonia has detained a Pole who tried to swim across Narva on an inflatable mattress and get to Russia.

The police accuse the Polish citizen of allegedly wanting to fight in the SVO zone on the side of Russia.

A criminal case was opened against the man and he was arrested for two months.

***

Colonelcassad
Statements by Deputy Director of the Information and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Alexey Fadeyev:

- The meeting between Europe and Kiev on Ukraine is a politically and practically insignificant action, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said. The European Union is effectively sabotaging the peace efforts of the United States and Russia.

- The decisive factor for the rapid organization of the meeting in Alaska was the will of Putin and Trump, the negotiations are being prepared thanks to their impetus.

- Russia has the right to countermeasures in connection with Europe's use of Russian assets to support Kiev.

- The expulsion of a Russian diplomat by Estonia is not the first hostile action, retaliatory steps will be worked out.

***

Colonelcassad
The Elmendorf-Richardson Air Force Base in Anchorage will be the venue for a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, CNN reported, citing White House officials. According to the US President's press secretary Caroline Levitt, the American leader wants to better understand Russia's position on the Ukrainian conflict during the talks. It is

an honor for Trump to receive Putin on American soil, and he does not rule out the possibility of visiting Russia in the future, she added. The American leader also hopes for a further trilateral summit involving Russia, the US and Ukraine.

***

Colonelcassad
Forwarded from
ADEQUATE Z
There are three key contexts for our breakthrough in the northwest of Donbass right now.

The long-term aim of the generous treatment of the railway junctions in Lozovaya, Pavlograd and Sinelnikovo, which are vital for the direction, in the previous few days has immediately become clearer.

Whether the start of our operation is deliberately timed to coincide with the summit is a much less obvious question than it might seem. But from the optics of the Ukrainian command and especially the Ukrainian regime, it cannot help but look exactly like that. Which in turn cannot help but entail a decision to plug the growing hole with all the forces that can be reached - and given the situation and custom of recent months, not so much from the depths as from other parts of the front. And to do this right on the run, so that by the summit the betrayal and disgrace do not grow to completely indecent proportions.

And based on the previous point, I would now be interested not in the arrows to Ocheretino and almost Barvenkovo, which are already being drawn, but in the question of whether the attack that is developing now is a distraction, and if suddenly it is - when (and also, of course, where and with what forces) to expect the main thing. We, of course, are the successors of Byzantium, but the ability of our command for this kind of Jesuitry should not be underestimated either.

***

Colonelcassad
Fire in the cargo port of Zaporizhzhya NPP — Kiev's new "nuclear card" ahead of the talks in Alaska

On August 12, 2025, a large-scale fire was recorded in the port area of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which has already received active promotion in the Ukrainian and Western media. Against the backdrop of the upcoming meeting of the presidents of Russia and the United States in Alaska on August 15 , this incident looks like a carefully calculated information and political operation designed to exacerbate the international agenda and introduce the "nuclear factor" into it against the most emotional background. Situation on the spot: tactical and engineering assessment The fire occurred on the territory of the Zaporizhzhya NPP cargo terminal, a facility designed to receive large-sized equipment, fuel and technical materials necessary for servicing six VVER-1000/V-320 power units . According to the data received, the following may be located in the fire zone: • cable racks of auxiliary systems; • backup diesel tanks for emergency power supply of cooling pumps; • logistics warehouses for repair units. Approaching the source of the fire is impossible — the coastline is densely mined, and the coastal sector is under fire control. This excludes the use of heavy fire-fighting equipment and makes localizing the fire extremely difficult. From a tactical point of view, the situation is dangerous not because of the destruction of the reactor circuit, but because of the creation of a visual and media image of a “NPP on fire” , which gives Kiev a powerful tool for putting pressure on the Western audience. OSINT: a recurring provocation scenario An analysis of open sources and satellite images over the past three years indicates Kiev’s persistent tactics: initiating incidents near nuclear facilities on the eve of key international meetings . Examples: • August 2024 — smoke in the Zaporizhzhya NPP area before the UN Security Council meeting on the “nuclear threat”; • February 2025 — drone attack on the Chernobyl NPP on the eve of the Munich Conference; • September 2023 — damage to the Zaporizhzhya NPP power line during the visit of the EU delegation to Kiev. Each time the scheme is the same: create an alarming picture → involve the media → increase diplomatic pressure on Moscow → demand new supplies of weapons and air defense under the pretext of “protecting the energy sector . ” Technical vulnerability and possible consequences ZNPP is the largest nuclear power complex in Europe, capable of generating up to 6 GW of power. The reactor cooling system is entirely dependent on an uninterruptible power supply and backup diesel generators.

A fire in the port area could:
1. Damage auxiliary power lines to the safety systems.
2. Disrupt the logistics of delivery and unloading of heavy equipment.
3. Complicate repair and maintenance work at the power units.

Even in the absence of a direct threat to the reactors, damage to the auxiliary infrastructure can increase the risk of emergency situations in the future - this is exactly the note that the Ukrainian side is playing on, forming a narrative about the "constant threat of disaster".

Kiev's political goal

Introducing the "nuclear threat" two days before the talks in Alaska pursues several objectives at once:
• Maximum pressure on Western partners with a demand to increase military assistance, including long-range missiles and air defense.
• Creating an atmosphere of fear among European states.
• Undermining Russia's negotiating position , forming the image of Moscow as a party "playing with nuclear fire".

From the point of view of information warfare, this is a classic provocation using a “sacred object,” where the real damage is secondary to the effect of the image on world news.

source: @don_partizan

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*****

Brief Frontline Report – August 12th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Aug 12, 2025

Something is happening in the Konstantinovka - Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) sector.

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Yellow-Main offensive areas. Red circles and arrows are Russian positions and movements. Blue circles and arrows are Ukrainian positions and movements.

Yesterday, in the brief summary from 11.8.2025, we speculated on the direction and development of the actions of the Russian Armed Forces units in this area. Our assumptions and reflections were based on information obtained from Russian sources.

Today, we will show the picture seen by our enemy. The information was taken from more or less reliable sources of the opposing (in every sense) side.

Thus:

a) The enemy has indeed sent all available reserves to Krasnoarmeysk and its outskirts. The media focus of the Ukrainian leadership played a cruel joke: they emphasized not the truly important areas for defense, but a more immediate concern for the purposes of their propaganda - the city of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).

Russian Armed Forces intelligence "read" this action, the headquarters analyzed it, and apparently a decision was made: considering the sparse and weakly layered defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, ours made a strike across the main defense areas (highlighted in blue on the map). To bypass fortified areas and deliver flanking strikes simultaneously in several areas;

b) There is real panic in the Ukrainian media: it is reported that Russian assault groups have entered the settlements of Kucherov Yar, Veseloe, and Zolotoy Kolodez. The bypass maneuver has covered the settlements of Rubezhnoye, Belitskoye, and Sofievka (Sofyevka on the map, north of Shahovo). The transport routes Dobropolye-Druzhkovka and route T-05-14, (west of “Zolotyi Kolodyaz,” the Ukrainian for Zolotoy Kolodez, see the larger map below) have been cut off;

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Red: T-05-14. Blue: Dobropolye (Dobropillya) to Druzhkovka (Druzhkivka).

c) Judging by reports coming from enemy military units, the enemy is demoralized, and command control has been lost in some sectors of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

We emphasize - these are the most objective, sober assessments of the situation from the Ukrainian side...

Evaluating the situation, one can possibly conclude:

a) Russian Armed Forces intelligence sees, and the headquarters understands, the condition and capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this sector;

b) The operation was prepared in advance: to break through such distances and areas, forces, and means of the second and third echelons are needed to fill these areas, secure them, hold them, and develop success. The Russian Armed Forces have these reserves;

We emphasize - all this, taken together, is called having operational awareness, initiative, and the will to win. That very OPERATIONAL SPACE about which skeptics sometimes sarcastically speak without understanding the meaning of the term.

Enjoy, gentlemen - this is the art of war!

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ugust-12th

******

Ukraine - Russian Troops Breach Into Second Donbas Defense Line

Nearly two weeks ago I wrote about the four Ukrainian cities which are about to fall to the Russian forces:

The political chaos in Kiev is reinforced by the catastrophic situation on the battle field. There are four significant population centers which are likely to fall under Russian control within the next month.

Image

1. Kupiansk ...

2. Siversk ...

3. Konstantinivka ...

4. Prokovsk (pre-war population 85,000) - Ukrainian defense lines around and within the city have broken down. Russian forces are already in the city. Supply and exit routes to the north and west are barely passable.

The Ukrainian forces lack infantry. Some Ukrainian brigades have less than 100 people to man several miles long defense lines. There is a severe lack of mortar and artillery ammunition. The Russian side has more and better drones available in higher numbers. The recent re-organization of the Ukrainian army into corps sized structures has only increase the organizational chaos.

The Ukrainian army, like the Ukrainian state, is in the process of falling apart.


Recent developments confirm that take.

During the last three days Russian forces achieved a major breakthrough. After the heavy bombardment of Ukrainian positions with over 1,300 FAB bombs Russian detachments moved north of the salient (green) they had built between the semi-encircled cities Pokrovsk and Konstantinivka.

They have reached and breached the well built second Donbas fortification line (in yellow) which had been dug over the last year.

Image

The Ukrainian supply line along the T-05-14 road between Dobropilla and Kramatorsk has been cut. Beyond that line is open space.

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Ukrainian sources confirm the breakthrough (machine translation):

Yesterday, Ukrainian military telegram channels, as well as AFU fighters, began to write massively about the Russian breakthrough to the north of the Pokrovskaya agglomeration - in the direction of Dobropillia.
As a result of an 11-kilometer (according to Ukrainian data) dash, the Russians came out to the northeast of Dobropillya, cutting the road to Kramatorsk and Konstantinovka.

Judging by the reports of Ukrainian publics, the problem is the lack of personnel and "false reports" to the top about the state of defense near Dobropillya. Russian military telegram channels write that this area was covered by [territorial forces] - since more experienced units are holding the front near Pokrovsk.

At the same time, the battles are already taking place in a fairly deep rear, where there is no organized line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It should actually be built "from the wheels", transferring reserves. There are already predictions in the Ukrainian public that if the situation is not urgently corrected, the Russians will be able to break through the front and enter the operational space. And Ukraine will lose hundreds of square kilometers of territory a day, as it did in the first weeks of the invasion.


This was the inevitable consequence of the war of attrition waged by the Russian forces. Ukrainian brigades, which nominally had some 3,000 soldiers, are down to 10-20% of their original strength. Many men have died or were wounded. A significant number, reportedly more than 100,000 since the start of the year, have simply gone home or fled.

Newly arriving mercenaries are get killed (archived) before they arrive on the battlefield:

At least a dozen foreign volunteers in Ukraine’s military were killed late last month when a Russian missile struck a training camp’s mess hall during lunchtime, in one of the deadliest attacks on foreign fighters of the war, according to soldiers with knowledge of the incident.
...
After the explosion, dead and dismembered bodies and gravely wounded soldiers were lying on the ground near the mess hall, he said. He saw at least 15 dead soldiers and more than 100 others who were wounded, he added.


Prepared ditches and other positions are no longer manned. Russian troops can infiltrate through the thinly manned lines. Ukrainian drone units, which are supposed to cover the holes in the frontline, are getting suppressed by Russian bombing and counter drone forces. Confusion sets in once Russian diversion teams appear in the rear.

The Ukrainian army has ordered parts of its 'elite' Azov forces from Izyum in the north towards the Pokrovsk area to counter the Russian breakthrough. They will be too little too late to make a difference.

The only Hail-Mary move that could still makes sense is a full 20 kilometer deep retreat from both cities to behind the second defense line. This would shorten the front and allow for a more densely manned defense line.

The Ukrainian command is unlikely to order that move.

Posted by b on August 12, 2025 at 9:49 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/08/u ... .html#more

******

Ukraine’s Romanian-Moldovan Flank Might Soon Be Used By NATO Against Russia
Andrew Korybko
Aug 12, 2025

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It can invade Transnistria, occupy neighboring Odessa, and threaten nearby Crimea from there.

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) warned in mid-July that “NATO Is Turning Moldova Into A New Military Ram Against Russia”. Airfields are being modernized, the railway gauge is being switched to the European one to facilitate military logistics, and warehouses are being built to store equipment. If NATO helps President Maia Sandu’s party win late September’s next (already unfree) parliamentary elections, SVR warned, she promised that they’ll annul Moldova’s constitutional neutrality.

TASS’ interview with Russian Ambassador to Moldova Oleg Ozerov, which can be read here, describes this overall process more in detail. For geographic reasons, NATO’s militarization of Moldova and the West’s “Ukrainization” of it that Ozerov talked about in his interview follow them doing the same in Romania, which Russian Ambassador Vladimir Lipaev elaborated on here in his recent interview with RIA. He importantly drew attention to its hosting of what’ll soon be NATO’s largest airbase in Europe.

Coupled with the bloc’s modernization of constitutionally “neutral in name only” Moldova’s airfields, the combined effect is that NATO might soon be preparing to use Ukraine’s southwestern flank against Russia, which could take one of three non-mutually exclusive forms. These are invading Moldova’s separatist region of Transnistria that hosts ~1,000-1,500 Russian troops, occupying neighboring Odessa (whether port and/or region) to preempt its potential capture by Russia, and threatening nearby Crimea.

The following background briefings detail the lead-up to these preparations that SVR just warned about:

* 4 April 2024: “Romania’s Draft Law On Dispatching Troops To Protect Its Compatriots Abroad Is Aimed At Moldova”

* 7 November 2024: “Moldova’s Pro-Western President Was Predictably Re-Elected Due To The Diaspora”

* 24 December 2024: “Will Moldova Soon Attack Transnistria Like Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service Warned?”

* 18 April 2025: “France’s 3D Mapping Of Romania’s ‘Focsani Gate’ Might Not Really Be For Defensive Purposes”

* 19 May 2025: “What Comes Next After The (Allegedly Fraudulent) Liberal-Globalist Victory In Romania?”

It’ll now be summarized for the convenience of those that don’t have time to review everything.

In short, Romania already flirted with the legal pretext for militarily intervening in Moldova, which many Romanians consider to be an artificially detached historical region of their country. Sandu is also suspected of plotting to subsume Moldova into Romania, of which she’s a dual citizen, thus expanding Article 5’s realm of responsibility further eastward. For this geopolitical plan and its complementary military ones that were described above to advance, however, election meddling was required.

This accounts for Chisinau suppressing the Russian-based diaspora’s voting rights during last fall’s presidential election and the West encouraging its own Moldovan diaspora to vote for Sandu. After her re-election, the West then coerced Romania to annul the first round of its presidential election after a conservative-nationalist won, ban him from the re-run, and then Sandu encouraged Moldovans with dual Romanian citizenship like herself to vote for the liberal-globalist candidate, which helped him win.

With Moldova’s rear echelon secured, it can now become an “advanced bridgehead” against Russia in Transnistria and/or neighboring Odessa, while Moldova and Romania can both serve as outposts for NATO to threaten nearby Crimea. It’s also possible that France could use those two as launchpads for intervening in Odessa. Moldova and Romania’s importance to Ukraine during the conflict and in the post-conflict future contextualizes the comprehensive expansion of their ties via the new “Odessa Triangle”.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/ukraines ... ovan-flank

If Andy were Russian I'd say he was paranoid. Otherwise he's shit-stirring. And I think the Rumanian people know better. In any case another reason to acquire Odessa by referendum or force if necessary.

******

Preparing for a conversation about Ukraine
August 12, 11:05

Image

Coming soon.
A conversation about Ukraine without Ukraine.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10009014.html

Consequences of the breakthrough of the Russian Armed Forces near Dobropolye
August 12, 8:43

Image

Since yesterday evening the enemy has been in a state of hysteria in the style of "Everything is lost! The plaster cast is being removed! The client is leaving."

Initial reports from 5 days ago about Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the Zolotye Kolodezi area "which are being dealt with" have given way to panicked cries about a breakthrough to the west of Shakhovo and to the north of Rodinskoye, where a large infiltration of Russian infantry into the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defensive positions has occurred, which has led to the loss of the integrity of the front.

In Dobropillya, they say that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are already reaching the outskirts of the city and are already loudly declaring the need for evacuation.
There is also talk of a mass evacuation from areas north of Shakhovo, which were previously considered deep in the rear.
Some sabotage and reconnaissance groups are now reaching the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk highway, which was recently considered a fairly distant matter.

The threat of operational encirclement looms over Krasnoarmeysk, as the pressure on the road through Grishina from Russian drones is increasing, and the sabotage and reconnaissance groups, after the breakthrough, are threatening to infiltrate Grishina from the north and northeast. In the current reality, the Russian infantry's approach to Grishin from the north could lead to a cauldron.

Hence the calls to urgently remove Syrsky and appoint "someone smart" who can save the situation.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10009280.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Aug 14, 2025 11:28 am

Before the summit: Ukrainian demands
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 08/14/2025

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News attention in Ukraine continues to focus on two different but directly linked aspects: the situation at the front and the preparations for Friday's meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska. In both cases, the mood oscillates between the fear of losing everything and the insistence that everything is going well and victory is just around the corner. While army authorities claim that the breach northeast of Pokrovsk-Mirnograd in the direction of Dobropilia is the result of the advance of three Russian sabotage groups made up of barely a dozen people, and they insist that one of them has already been neutralized and the other two will be destroyed, yesterday, the map of control of the territory—or the presence of troops in front-line areas in the absence of enemy troops—extended even further, although no longer with the speed of recent days. In the face of the absolute calm that Volodymyr Zelensky and his entourage seek to project, officers, soldiers, and military influencers warn, often in posts riddled with expletives, that the situation is far from being under control. Although possibly exaggerated, as there is no movement of Russian armored vehicles or massive troop advance, the critical version is gaining favor in the Western press. After all, was it necessary to mobilize some of the best available units to take out three Russian sabotage groups that posed no serious threat?

As on previous occasions, in the face of problems, there is a clear scapegoat, Oleksandr Syrsky, an art that, as Leonid Ragozin recalled yesterday, “is a hackneyed genre in Ukraine (with people like Bezuhla and Krotevych, from Azov, at the forefront), but here there are serious Western media that join the chorus with the simplistic duo of “Soviet” Syrsky versus “progressive” commanders enlightened by NATO and the highly successful cadence of Zaluzhny versus Syrskys plagued by defeats.” The Russian opposition journalist's comment referred to a lengthy report in The Wall Street Journal , which argues, as Yaroslav Trofimov, one of its most prominent journalists, noted, that "Ukraine triumphed during the first year of the war because its army fought differently. After Zaluzhny was replaced by Syrsky last year, the war has become a war between a small Soviet army and a large Soviet army, with predictable consequences." "Syrsky is no more Soviet than Zaluzhny," Ragozin recalled, but he has the handicap of having been born in Russia, argument enough for those who prefer to seek simple explanations for complex problems. “When the Ukrainian army does well, it's because we teach it Western doctrine and equipment. When it does poorly, it's because it's still Soviet,” commented feminist activist Almut Rochowanski, to which Ukrainian sociologist Volodymyr Ischenko added the “elephant in the room,” “the unwillingness of the majority of Ukrainians to sacrifice themselves for this state and the astonishing weakness of its mobilization capacity—not only in the strict military sense, but in broader social terms—which forced conscription has only further eroded. Not even a brilliant general can win a war without soldiers.” Added to these arguments is the fact that Ukraine had its greatest successes in the first phase of the war and has been unable to repeat them since due to the adaptive and improved performance of the Russian Federation, that is, that great Soviet army .

Despite the reassuring words, the front remains a source of concern, as the trend of movement of the separation line, which is retreating toward Ukraine, is one of the indicators of strength, an important aspect before the start of a negotiation process. However, unlike Russia, the situation on the battlefield is not its main asset, as its potential lies not so much in its army, but in its allies' ability to impose more favorable conditions than those dictated by the balance of power between Kiev and Moscow at the front and rear. This was the focus of yesterday's discussion, when Zelensky traveled to Berlin to participate with Foreign Minister Merz in the collective telephone conversation in which the European allies hoped to convince Donald Trump to maintain a tough stance toward Russia at Friday's meeting and create a negotiation process that would lead to the peace most beneficial for Kiev's continental allies.

“Excellent conversation with US President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders ahead of President Trump's meeting with Putin in Alaska. We are united in pushing for an end to this terrible war against Ukraine and achieving a just and lasting peace. We appreciate Donald Trump's leadership and close coordination with our allies. The ball is now in Putin's court,” wrote Mark Rutte, in a message that could well be considered the standard for the side in the war that is not interested in a peace that resembles the current reality. European countries insist on a peace through force that they have been unable to achieve militarily and for which they have been unable to present a clear alternative to the two currently possible scenarios: the continuation of the war or the dialogue process initiated by Donald Trump, which can only lead to peace—or a ceasefire—with compromises they are unwilling to accept. Without any major ideas to propose and always using advertising slogans, European countries insist that Russia be the one to give in and present the current situation as a moment in which Moscow must yield to their dictates, without offering a diplomatic solution beyond unviable plans designed to be rejected by the Kremlin, thus turning Russia's refusal to offer surrender into an argument for continuing military, economic, political, and diplomatic pressure.

Details about yesterday's conversation are scarce, although the comments made give an idea of the tone of Friday's meeting of presidents. As might have been expected, given the statements of Donald Trump and White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt, who clearly lowered expectations for Friday's meeting to just a meeting between the two leaders, the US president explained to his European allies and Ukraine that his objective is to achieve a ceasefire and determine whether there are possibilities for a final peace agreement later. This scenario is preferred by the EU, as it involves imposing a ceasefire on Russia that would halt its progress, but not other measures such as the rearmament of Ukraine or the lifting of sanctions, issues that would be left for an uncertain future in which the process could be delayed and manipulated. Given that Russia is seeking to avoid this interregnum between the current war and a situation of peace due to the absence of conflict with a binding treaty ending the conflict, while Ukraine advocates for a ceasefire that leaves virtually every important aspect up in the air, Donald Trump will need to decipher the true will for peace, not only in Alaska, but also in European capitals and, above all, in Banjul.

With even fewer arguments than European countries, which at least have the veto power to lift sanctions as a tool to pressure Donald Trump into seeking a more favorable agreement, Ukraine also insists on presenting itself as the strongest party, capable of dictating the terms of Friday's meeting and the negotiation process in general. Several media outlets, including The Telegraph and Politico, have recently published Ukraine's negotiating position, demanding maximum levels that Kiev can only afford given the economic, financial, military, and political support of the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

In an article titled "What Ukraine Is Asking for in Alaska," Politico makes it clear that, despite its absence from the meeting, Kiev's point of view will be present at the two-way summit, where Donald Trump has already made it clear that he aims to impose the path most favorable to Zelensky's interests. A ceasefire without a clear and direct path to negotiation of final issues, which would necessarily entail harsh concessions that Ukraine is unwilling to sign in a treaty, would collapse the two main objectives of the current Ukrainian government: to remain in power and to be able to tell its population that, without ceding territory, it has stopped the war. As in September 2014 and February 2015, the aim is to force Russia to accept a ceasefire when Ukraine is on the defensive and facing serious problems at the front, a further parallel to the repetition of the feared and hated Minsk scenario .

Ukraine's demands are a mixture of the Peace Formula, with which Zelensky sought to incite a wave of support among his allies, explicitly excluding Russia, speaking of a peace that was in reality a simple demand for Russian capitulation, and the Victory Plan, with which he addressed his allies through a list of objectives they must meet to achieve Russian surrender. The difference with respect to those two periods—the first before the final failure of the Zaporozhye counteroffensive and the second when Ukraine held the Kursk map and the front was completely paralyzed—is the balance of forces, which is much more favorable to Russia at the moment. To compensate for this obvious weakness, Ukraine clings to peace through force and the authority of Donald Trump, from whom it expects an ultimatum that will force Russia to comply with terms that it clearly cannot accept under the current conditions.

“In addition to what promises to be heated debates over the continued illegal occupation of Ukrainian territory by Russian forces, Kyiv will want to ensure that Moscow pays for the hundreds of billions of dollars in damages it has caused and returns the 20,000 kidnapped children, along with prisoners of war. Above all, Ukraine wants a deal that offers meaningful security guarantees and does not simply allow Trump and Putin to team up to reintegrate Russia into the global economy. That would only allow Putin to strengthen Russia to launch new offensives,” writes Politico , evidently from a pro-Ukrainian perspective and using Kyiv’s usual rhetoric. Of its demands in the previous peace plans , Ukraine only drops the demand for Russia’s unconditional withdrawal from Ukrainian territories, possibly because its main patron, Donald Trump, has already made it clear that such a goal is unfeasible. Ukraine continues to demand hundreds of millions in war reparations—despite the fact that a significant portion of the damage is in the part of the territory that kyiv hopes to recover in the future but which will remain under Russian control and which Russia will have to rebuild on its own - and, above all, maintains its discourse regarding the most important issue: security.

In 2022, one of the reasons why an agreement between Russia and Ukraine was impossible was precisely the issue of the security guarantees that Ukraine was demanding from both its enemy, willing to negotiate the terms, and its allies, who leaked to the press their refusal to offer Kiev anything equivalent to the Article V of collective security it was demanding. Zelensky is aware that he can no longer, even in his maximalist approach, demand the return of the entire territory, especially when it comes to whether or not he will have to cede more areas to Russia. But he has more European support in seeking a solution more favorable to his interests in the areas of security, rearmament, and his Euro-Atlantic path . “Ukraine, although apparently willing to give up some territory,” The Telegraph stated this week , referring, in reality, to accepting the fait accompli on the ground, “will only accept a peace deal that offers robust security guarantees in the form of arms deliveries and a path to NATO membership.” Although this week has focused solely on the territorial issue and the location of the de facto border —presumably along the current front or with minimal changes—the security structure is the aspect that could make any type of negotiation unviable, since the possibility of a NATO presence in Ukraine, whether under its own flag or that of the European member states of the Alliance, is something Russia cannot accept as part of an agreement. This, coupled with the US lack of interest in any aspect beyond the territorial issue, is the European countries' trump card in imposing their peace .

“This war must be ended,” Zelensky wrote yesterday, in that passive voice that indicates he expects external action to bring about the end of the war for him. In case there was any doubt, the Ukrainian president insisted that “pressure must be exerted on Russia for the sake of a just peace. The experience of Ukraine and our partners must be used to avoid Russian deception.” A just peace —that is, keeping open the possibility of recovering lost territories in the future and with a clear path to NATO, de facto or de jure— implies pressure, primarily arms for Ukraine and sanctions for Russia. In this, Zelensky has the support of Trump, who yesterday returned to his rhetoric of two weeks ago to warn Russia of “very severe consequences” if Vladimir Putin does not agree to end the war by Friday.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/14/antes ... cranianas/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
5:31
Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov spoke about the program of the Russia-US summit

- The meeting of the presidents will take place in Anchorage. One of the premises of the Elmendorf-Richardson joint military base will be used.

- The summit will begin tomorrow, August 15, at approximately 11:30 local time with a one-on-one conversation between Putin and Trump with the participation of interpreters.

- Further negotiations are planned as part of delegations, they will continue over a working breakfast.

- The delegation from our side includes Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, and the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev.

- The delegation itself includes five people, but expert groups are also traveling in each of the areas.

- The composition of the American delegation has also been established; it will be announced by representatives of the White House.

- After the completion of the negotiations, Putin and Trump will hold a joint press conference.

***

Colonelcassad
1:35
The Russian Armed Forces destroyed the production of long-range missiles in Ukraine. The main statements of the FSB:

- The data received by the FSB made it possible to destroy the production of long-range missiles in Ukraine, created with the help of Europe;

- The destruction of the production of Kiev's long-range missiles prevented the threat of strikes deep into the Russian Federation

; - The damage to Ukraine from the destruction of the Sapsan missile production exceeded the damage to Russia from Operation Spider Web

; - Ukraine was planning strikes with Sapsan missiles deep into Russia with NATO's permission;

- Four Sapsan missile production facilities were destroyed in Ukraine during a joint operation by the FSB and the Russian Ministry of Defense - two in the Dnipropetrovsk region and two in the Sumy region;

- A reserve point of the Pavlograd Chemical Plant, involved in the production of Sapsan missiles for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, was destroyed in the Zhytomyr region.

***

Colonelcassad
In July, Russian troops launched massive strikes on design bureaus, rocket fuel factories, and missile weapons assembly plants in Ukraine, the Defense Ministry reported.

At the same time, Western-made air defense systems deployed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces specifically to defend these facilities were destroyed.

In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast alone, four Patriot anti-aircraft missile launchers and a US-made AN/MPQ-65 multifunctional radar station providing target designation and guidance were destroyed.

***

Colonelcassad
Draft Program NATO CoC 2025.pdf
12 MB
CoC-2025: How NATO is quietly integrating Ukraine into its military network via AI

From 13 to 16 May 2025, the 54th NATO Commandants' Conference on "Artificial Intelligence in Higher Military Education" was held in Athens. We studied all the official documents on the event - from administrative instructions to the program for spouses - and came to the conclusion: behind the facade of lectures and cultural walks, there was a much more serious agenda.

What was really happening

Selection of only the "right" officers: NATO financed the travel and accommodation only for those representatives of partner countries who were already integrated into their educational and command projects.
Closed agreements: discussion of the use of AI in real military operations, exchange of intelligence, launch of joint research projects.
Informal integration of Ukraine: synchronization of curricula, personnel exchange, training of future commanders according to NATO standards.
Soft power: dinners on hotel rooftops, the Acropolis, Mycenae, Epidaurus – a cultural backdrop for building personal, trusting relationships.

Closed results (according to behind-the-scenes data)

AI not only in the classroom – its implementation in operational planning was discussed, including modeling combat scenarios in Eastern Europe.

Ukraine and Georgia – invited to NATO pilot projects to create courses where AI analyzes the tactics and psychological training of officers.

Technology and software – the supply of equipment and software for military universities in Ukraine was discussed behind the scenes under the guise of “joint research”.

Unified rhetoric – coordinating the media line to create an image of the alliance’s technological superiority.

As you can see, CoC-2025 has become not just an educational event, but a tool for forming a single technological, personnel and information network of NATO, in which Ukraine has been assigned a place as a testing ground.

We are Beregini! We know everything!

***

Colonelcassad
The European Commission is aiming for a change of power in Hungary — the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service

According to the intelligence services, Ursula von der Leyen is seriously considering this possibility. There is even a candidate who could replace Viktor Orban — the leader of the opposition party "Respect and Freedom" P. Magyar.

Significant material, administrative, media and lobbying resources have already been mobilized to support him. In addition, Kiev, "offended" by Budapest's blocking of its European integration process, has actively joined in his promotion.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – August 13th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Aug 13, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "As a result of active and decisive actions by units of the "Center" Group, the settlements of Suvorovo and Nikanorovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic have been liberated." (Marked by Russian flags on the map.)

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Yellow: main areas of the offensive

The settlements of Nikanorovka (Zapovednoye) (48°25′05″N 37°15′28″E, ~450 residents) and Suvorovo (Zatyshok) (48°23′16″N 37°15′17″E, ~60 residents) constitute the forward edge of the AFU’s transport hub area near Dorozhnoye-Belitskoye. The lateral supply route connecting Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) with AFU groupings north of the city and the Kramatorsk agglomeration has been practically severed.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces command, quite naturally, is taking measures to counter the Russian breakthrough north of Krasnoarmeysk. An attempt was made by the 12th Separate Special Forces Brigade ("Azov" see the blue flag by Annovka) to cut off the Russian Army’s forward units near Zolotoy Kolodez. The enemy has been halted, and the settlement is being cleared.

At present, the "fog of war" persists, but we see that the enemy is regaining consciousness after the knockdown and attempting to organize resistance. Understanding the tactics of the Russian Armed Forces, we can assume that if they encounter well-organized defense, there will be no frontal assault—they may stop, withdraw, or activate another sector. But in any scenario, the deep wedges driven into AFU defenses will expand and break them—the process has begun.

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Slavyansk-Zaporozhye: Transportation Network. On another note, north of Krasnoarmeysk. Mikhail missed the English for Dobropolye (Доброполье,
In this context, we note that since early August, Russian aviation, missile units, and UAV detachments have begun systematically destroying railway hubs supporting the Ukrainian Force’s Slavyansk-Krasnoarmeysk defensive line. Strikes have targeted transport junctions and traction substations along the Lozovaya-Pavlograd-Sinelnikovo-Zaporozhye line.

There was a time when LOMys* (keyboard warriors, basically) loudly asked: "Why aren’t they destroying railway stations and tracks?" We patiently explained back then, and now (visibly) reiterate—timing is everything: railway tracks can be repaired within hours or days, depending on damage scale. Extended sections must be hit simultaneously, and given the existence of bypass routes and the relatively (compared to large-scale WWII operations) modest transport volumes, the effect would be negligible, while the enemy retains logistical flexibility.

In WWII history, there is an example of an operation to disrupt enemy transport systems—the so-called "Rail War," conducted by frontline forces, sabotage groups, and partisans behind enemy lines. This operation took place in August–September 1943 to support the Kursk offensive.

This example illustrates the nuances of such operations:
a) Conducted massively over extended sections;
b) Executed in support of a specific military operation;
c) Carried out intensively for a limited time;
d) Launched in strictly defined locations and at precisely calculated times, coordinated with frontline forces.

When a large-scale military operation is underway, and the enemy is forced to maneuver forces and resources to supply troops in a specific area and timeframe, massive strikes on transport arteries disrupt their maneuver at a critical moment—creating a window for our forces to complete their objectives.

This is exactly what we are witnessing now: over the past week, strikes have targeted the strategic railway artery Lozovaya-Zaporozhye. This caused a pause in the AFU resupply, enabling a Russian offensive across a broad sector—seizing supply routes at close range and penetrating deep into enemy defenses at multiple points.

The enemy is stunned by the knockdown—now, the task is to properly exploit this advantage.

*The abbreviation “LOMy” (ЛОМы) breaks down into three Russian words, each contributing to its sarcastic meaning:

1. Любители (*Lyubiteli*) = "Lovers" / "Enthusiasts"
2. Обсуждений (*Obsuzhdeniy*) = "of Discussions"
3. Милитарных (*Militarnykh*) = "Military" (or alternatively, Мифов *Mifov* = "of Myths")


https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ugust-13th

******

The Collapse Begins: Russian Forces Spearhead Largest Single-Day Breakthrough of War
Simplicius
Aug 13, 2025

Well, it’s finally happened. Ukrainian lines have seen possibly their first major breach down to the operational depth, or nearly so, as Russian forces struck out as much as 20km north of Pokrovsk. But the real story is much more nuanced than that.

Russian troops had been accumulating there in small pockets since late July, shaping the ground. A fierce debate has erupted over whether these are “DRGs” or regulars as Ukrainian accounts have lazily resorted to labeling anything penetrating the first line of defense as “DRGs”, but in reality these are mostly regular troops which simply accumulated in a weakened portion of the front.

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Hotspots on the front, where main assaults are expected, act as a kind of gravitational force, pulling everything toward them, and sucking resources and reinforcements in the sector away from neighboring lower-priority fronts.

You can see below, the yellow lines represent active Russian advancing operations, and the blue lines represent Ukrainian resources being pulled to plug the gaps and staunch the flow. But these resources are pulled away from a de-prioritized area which then “bursts” forward (red line), provided that Russian intelligence is aware enough of Ukrainian operational deficits there:

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Thanks to increasing Russian capability, they have been well aware. Note the below for later:

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But let’s start from the beginning and break this report down into two sections, first the basic straightforward SitRep, and then a more analytical breakdown of the actual tactics involved, as well as the situation’s prognosis and future outlook.

First, what we do know, or at least strongly suspect:

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The areas circled in red are the newly verified Russian advances. The ones going westward toward Pokrovsk itself are obviously aimed at cutting the main Dobropillya-Pokrovsk road which is one of the last two remaining MSRs (Main Supply Route) there. The other E50 route heading northwestward toward Pavlograd is virtually already under fire control, or at least partially so.

Of course, there are many fields and small unofficial dirt roads in between those, but they are never as usable, particularly for heavy equipment. We’ve gone through this drill before many times, from Bakhmut to Avdeevka, if you’ll recall. During Rasputitsa those fields and backroads are a much bigger nightmare for logistics, but we’re not there yet.

Ukrainian reports indicate that several “elite” units were immediately dispatched as emergency measure to stop the breakthrough. This reportedly includes the 92nd Assault Brigade, 4th National Guard Brigade, and 12th “Azov” Special Forces Brigade as part of the 1st “Azov” Corps led by the infamous Prokopenko:

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For those wondering, Azov was restructured into a much larger Corps unit of the National Guard, but the core brigade from this unit is what’s being sent to man the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk highway area, just north and northwest of the Zoloti Kolodyaz breakthrough.

There are so many varied implications of this ongoing breakthrough that they could take up several articles worth of material. But to summarize, not only is the Pokrovsk area threatened, but even the larger Kramatorsk agglomerate is under major threat with the cutting of the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk highway:

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This is particularly the case given that the Lyman front north of Slavyansk is facing major pressure as well, with lots of recent gains there which are beginning to approach old pre-Slavyansk lines.

For instance, Torske was reportedly just finally sealed up and Russian forces are already heading further west:

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And north of Torske, Russian forces have been moving even much faster in the area south of Ridkodub.

The other major implication is one of operational breakthrough, with reports claiming Russia has breached the rear of Ukraine’s last major fortifications line of the Donetsk region:

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Keep in mind, the above map is much more optimistic than others and Russia may not have actually cut this highway just yet, as can be seen by the earlier Suriyak maps—but we’ll find out soon. Further, Ukrainian sources claim that much of Russia’s advances are now being beaten back by the ‘elite’ reinforcements dispatched to the zone.

It should also be mentioned that during all this time, Russian forces have likewise been digging deeper into Pokrovsk city itself, already in the process of sectioning it off. The same goes for the eastern side near Mirnograd, where Russian forces were geolocated breaking into the first blocks of Rodinske, as well as capturing a portion of Chervoni Lyman just below it:

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It’s almost certain that the next objective will be to partition Mirnograd away from Pokrovsk entirely by cutting the main road, after which Mirnograd will collapse:

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Also, though Russian forces have reportedly captured Nova Shakhove—though it’s not completely verified yet, and these may be advanced units that will pull back—there is also rumor that Russian “DRGs” are already operating on the outskirts of the critical town of Dobropillya:

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Panicked Ukrainian internal sources have claimed the town has “two days left”:

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A battlefield update would not be complete without the obligatory Jihad Julian post:

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Lastly, Ukrainian analyst Myroshnykov fills in the details of what happened—with some deluded hope as garnishment—read particular his corroboration of the ‘DRG’ semantics:

The operational-tactical situation on the Pokrovsk direction is gradually approaching a point where Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad will no longer be saveable.

So far, the situation is not yet at that point. The critical moment has not yet come. But unfortunately, everything is heading that way at the moment.

The agglomeration can still be saved.

But this is not done by frontal assaults, attempts of which have already been made on our side! The enemy has long since adapted to that.

I send a huge "greeting" to those who are grinding down the best units in senseless frontal attacks.

Plus, there is chaos in command due to the transfer of responsibility zones on the direction from the OTU to the corps.

Because some cannot agree on the assignment of attached units to the corps, cannot agree on the exact boundaries of responsibility zones, and many other bureaucratic issues.

And often attached units carry out tasks from the command of two corps.

And the enemy strikes at the junctions of the corps, and both corps rush to "put out the fire" simultaneously. But resources are not unlimited, and the occupier gladly takes advantage of this.

This is what happened on the Pokrovsko-Dobropilskyi direction.

The occupier struck at the junction of the corps. And now we have such "results".

While everyone was busy eliminating "DRG" in Pokrovsk (including the military command), operational-tactical problems are emerging northeast of the city.

Why did I put DRG in quotes? Because these were (and still are) not DRG, but small enemy infantry groups that, under the close escort of their drones, successfully infiltrated deep into our lines.

And when there are several dozen of these small groups, they can crawl 10-15 km in the same way.

Letting them through is one thing, but driving them out is blood, sweat, the lives and health of our fighters. And exhaustion of reserves.

Therefore, even if that breakthrough at the junction of the corps towards Dobropillia and Druzhkivka is localized and it is possible to push the occupiers back a little - know that our losses stand behind this.

That's the situation.


(Paywall with free option.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the ... ian-forces

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Operational Art ...

... in action. 404 desperately tries to move the so called reserves to Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk)--they will be annihilated, of course. But the arrows become longer and longer and operational successes slowly turn into strategic ones.

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Recall what REAL General Staffs do--they plan, non-stop, 24/7 and I want to remind you again about "maneuver"--taking territory is a "necessary evil" in order to annihilate enemy forces. In D.C. they watched movie Patton too many times and forgot completely how REAL wars are won.
Meanwhile Caroline Leavitt:

US President Donald Trump sees progress after the recent direct Russian-Ukrainian talks, but there is no question of setting "red lines" in Ukraine. This was announced on August 12 by White House press Secretary Caroline Leavitt. "I don't want to set red lines for the president (Trump) from this podium. — Ed.) and on his behalf. However, the president did call on Ukraine and Russia to discuss these humanitarian issues directly with each other, and we are already seeing progress," she said at a briefing.

A hint, superpowers do not abide by "red lines", especially such power as Russia.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/08 ... l-art.html

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Dobropillya breakthrough

Yearly net losses of 159 thousand. Chaos and lies. 'The forward line of defense has ceased to exist'. Fortifications without infantry. Russian poncho tactics. Corps reform failure.
Events in Ukraine
Aug 12, 2025

Russian troops have advanced a record 18 kilometers over just the past two or three days near the town of Dobropillya.

According to Bild’s military analyst Julian Roepcke, ‘The coming hours are decisive for the fate of the 29% of the Donetsk region still controlled by Ukraine.‘ Roepcke believes the current Russian advance carries huge stakes for the war as a whole:

It must also be clearly stated: If Ukraine fails to eliminate a few hundred Russian soldiers—on foot and far from their own logistics—it is unlikely that the Ukrainian army can hold the region in the long term.

We are thus in critical hours that will also have significant impacts on the morale and motivation of the remaining civilian population and Ukrainian troops in the region.

Ukraine must now act decisively and, within a few days, recapture at least an area of approximately 15 x 5 kilometers. If this does not succeed, the cycle of thinly manned front lines and further territorial losses will continue and accelerate unchecked.

In this case, it is highly likely that Russia will withdraw its offer of a Ukrainian retreat from Donbas in exchange for a ceasefire elsewhere.


I’ve gathered the most interesting Ukrainian military commentary on the topic of the Dobropillya breakthrough I could find. Some highlights:

The disintegrating army:

Once again: we have a net loss of 159,000 troops per year.
The enemy is gaining roughly 9–10 thousand per month.
That’s plus 120 thousand per year. And they haven’t even really started mobilization yet.


Visions of collapse:

First, we "lose ground" at the platoon level. Then at the company level. Now it’s reached battalions. Once it gets to brigades—the enemy will deploy its armored groups, which have been actively building up for about a year now—and push into the rear, into operational space. And the map will once again start "shifting" like it did in 2022—by tens, hundreds of square kilometers per day.

Lies and chaos:

The situation is fairly chaotic: having found gaps in the defense, the enemy seeps deep in, tries to consolidate quickly, build up forces for further advances — while some individuals in the command of a certain brigade either do not fully grasp the seriousness of the problem, or present the situation as “under control,” claiming that “everyone has been killed, everyone has been stopped.”

The forward line of defense, as we understood it before, has ceased to exist – the enemy is successfully infiltrating kilometers deep into the lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with friendly and enemy positions chaotically intermixed in the area.

There is essentially no stable line of contact anymore.

Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are nearly encircled. Kostiantynivka is semi-encircled. The enemy is advancing toward Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka.


Infantry famine:

However, the enemy is bypassing our well-constructed fortifications with ease — and will later occupy them and use them for its own defense. As soldiers comment: “The worst part is that if they take them, there’s no fucking way we’ll throw them out.” This is an example of how, alongside well-built fortifications, you need the personnel to hold them, as well as effective command to use such assets properly.

The 7th Rapid Response Corps of the Air Assault Forces, however, cannot come up with anything better than attempting to retake captured positions through frontal assaults.


Russian tactics:

It looks like this: the faggots lay camouflage thermal-insulating ponchos on the ground, cool them down, and then move in them at night in pairs. Almost every movement between positions is monitored step-by-step: a control officer gives specific instructions, escorts them with a drone, and oversees their concealment. If there is danger, the group lies down and covers itself with the poncho.

We’ll also take a look at the failure of the Corps reform and the impact of the general staff lying about non-existing Ukrainian advances.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... eakthrough

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Proxy war in ruins: How U.S. and NATO led Ukraine to disaster
August 12, 2025 Gary Wilson

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Anti-corruption protest in Kiev on July 25.

On Aug. 12, Russia’s Foreign Ministry reported that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had discussed preparations for an Aug. 15 summit in Alaska between President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov confirmed the meeting, saying the talks would center on a “long-term peaceful settlement” to the conflict, with a future round potentially taking place on Russian soil.

The tides of war in Ukraine have shifted decisively. Russia’s military is surging across eastern Ukraine, smashing through heavily fortified lines while the Ukrainian government teeters on the edge of collapse. These developments expose the inherent failure of U.S.-NATO proxy warfare.

Russia advances, Ukraine on the brink

The summer of 2025 has seen the most significant Russian military gains since the war began. In early August, Moscow’s forces captured the heavily fortified city of Chasov Yar in the Donetsk People’s Republic, after over a year of bitter fighting. This was followed by a breakthrough into the Dnipropetrovsk region, a key industrial and population hub that had been out of Russia’s reach for three years.

Russian forces, using overwhelming firepower — including over 1,300 FAB bombs in a single push — have breached Ukraine’s second Donbass defensive line.

Even Western media are acknowledging the scale of the shift. The New York Times’ July 19 report on “Why Russia Is Gaining Ground in Ukraine,” says that Russia’s combination of troop numbers, air superiority, and artillery dominance has produced its largest monthly territorial gains since early 2025. Ukrainian brigades, some reduced to fewer than 100 soldiers covering miles of front, are crumbling under the pressure.

Political crisis in Kiev

The military collapse is being mirrored by political turmoil at home. Facing catastrophic casualties and a recruitment crisis, the Zelensky government has turned to coercive conscription — dragging men off the streets and raising the age barrier to pull in older recruits, some over 60 years old.

Protests are growing in Kiev, Odessa, Lviv, and Dnipro. Anger at corruption erupted in late July, with mass demonstrations demanding the reinstatement of anti-corruption agencies. In a surreal scene, Ukrainian lawmakers brawled in parliament before voting unanimously to restore the agencies they had recently disbanded.

The reality is stark: Zelensky’s government survives only through U.S. and NATO backing, and with that support now politically unstable in Washington and Europe, its legitimacy is rapidly eroding.

Washington’s desperation

The White House’s response has oscillated between erratic escalation and empty bravado. Instead of “peace in 24 hours” (as promised), President Trump’s administration has advanced new arms shipments, including $300 million worth of Patriot missile batteries. Not satisfied with merely fueling the bloodshed, Trump shortened his ultimatum to Putin from “50 days” to “10,” and provocatively deployed U.S. nuclear submarines off Russia’s coast.

Yet these gestures, born of imperial hubris and panic, are unlikely to reverse the battlefield realities. Russia’s advantage expands daily; Ukraine’s forces are outnumbered, outgunned, and exhausted. The only rational outcome — should Washington step back from the brink — is Russian victory and the collapse of the U.S. / NATO proxy project.

The proxy war’s failure

From the start, the Ukraine conflict was never just about Ukraine. It was a U.S.-NATO project aimed at weakening Russia and expanding imperialist control in Eastern Europe. Billions of dollars in weapons and economic aid were funneled into Kiev to advance the interests of imperialist finance capital.

Now, with the Ukrainian army collapsing and Russia on the offensive, the mask has slipped. The war has bled Ukraine white, devastated its economy, and turned its population into cannon fodder. The people of Ukraine have paid the price — while Western arms manufacturers and energy giants have reaped historic profits.

What comes next?

With Ukraine’s military near collapse and its government fracturing, the war’s trajectory is clear: Russia will prevail. The only question is whether the U.S. and NATO will recklessly escalate further, risking a global conflict, or accept that their proxy war has failed.

For now, the suffering continues — while Russia advances, Ukraine crumbles, and the U.S. scrambles for a way out.

https://www.struggle-la-lucha.org/2025/ ... -disaster/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Aug 15, 2025 11:38 am

The difficult game of diplomacy
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 08/15/2025

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After his lightning trip to Berlin to join Chancellor Merz for the collective call in which European countries and Ukraine conveyed to Donald Trump the red lines he must not cross at today's meeting (at 11:30 a.m. Alaska time), Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to London yesterday for a final preparatory meeting for the day after the summit. "President Zelensky concluded a very important visit to London: a meeting with Prime Minister Keir Starmer at a time when every day counts for the security of Europe and the entire democratic world. Our partners are united in their support for Ukraine. They see the end of the war as a just and lasting peace. Coordination between allies continues daily, without interruption. We maintain constant contact," wrote Andriy Ermak. Aside from the insistence on the unity of all partners and the emphasis the Ukrainian government has placed throughout this week of nerves and political maneuvering on the participation of all countries—something that isn't even true—the two trips undertaken are far more significant.

Despite the significant political support Emmanuel Macron has provided over the years, Zelensky chose to sit next to Merz to talk with Donald Trump. And although his position is much more decisive in favor of a strong armed mission to be deployed in Ukraine after the ceasefire, the Ukrainian president opted for the British prime minister, co-sponsor of the Coalition of the Willing with the French president. The two visits represent Ukraine's twin objectives: to get closer to Germany, the power capable of supplying it with more weapons, especially those that Kiev has been demanding for years, and to the United Kingdom, whose special relationship with the United States could be useful given the need to please Donald Trump. France has no Taurus missiles to send to Ukraine, nor is its president's relationship with the leader of the White House at its best. Much is at stake at this time for Ukraine, when, for the first time in three and a half years, a negotiation process could begin in search of some kind of diplomatic agreement. That, and not the division of territories, as Western media have warned this week, is Donald Trump's mission at today's meeting.

Much calmer after its conversation with Donald Trump, who, according to European media, confirmed that the United States will participate in providing security guarantees to Ukraine (although he did not provide details, so it may simply be a question of continuing arms supplies subject to payment by European NATO countries under the newly created mechanisms), Ukraine is flexing its muscles with maximum demands, only renouncing the return of its territories as a prerequisite for negotiations—something that merely acknowledges objective reality—and is resuming its initial demands for NATO access as a guarantee of future security. Kiev accompanies these unfeasible demands for Russia with rhetoric of peace—that just peace that has always been a euphemism for an agreement on its terms—of force and flattery for Donald Trump, the man who can make it happen. In its masterful manipulation of the narrative, Ukraine is managing to raise demands that, by design, make an agreement impossible, but giving Donald Trump the impression of wanting an immediate peace, something Kiev has never demonstrated. If the continuation of Russian bombings is, as Western media insist, an unequivocal sign that Moscow is not seeking peace, the same logic can also be applied to Ukraine, which in recent hours attacked the Druzhva gas pipeline, which supplies energy to Hungary, kyiv's energy supplier. Attacks on oil refineries continue, as does the use of drones to disrupt the normal operation of Russian civil aviation. Yesterday, images of a Ukrainian drone crashing, apparently deliberately, into a civilian building in the Russian city of Rostov are also a sign of kyiv's position, which, like Moscow, will not stop attacking until there is a ceasefire agreement with a political framework to support it.

That is Donald Trump's objective at today's meeting, where, despite Western fears of a quick, bilateral agreement on Ukraine without Ukraine and on Europe without Europe, the same thing that has been discussed until now is being decided: the type of negotiation process that will be followed from now on. The fact that the terms discussed this week—the proposal discussed by Steve Witkoff in Moscow and the European counterattack—are exactly the same as last April indicates a lack of progress, but also that, even though he was invited to the United States, Vladimir Putin will not be attending a bilateral meeting where he can set the agenda, the terms, or the pace.

Already en route to Alaska, the Russian delegation will prepare for their first face-to-face meeting with a US president since 2021, when Vladimir Putin met with Joe Biden in Geneva to sign a nuclear arms limitation agreement. Although this is not the first time the Russian president has met with Donald Trump, the circumstances are very different. The meeting they held in Helsinki was peaceful, and although it also took place amid an active conflict in Ukraine, the war in Donbass was not a cause for concern for the US president, who had not yet begun his campaign for the Nobel Peace Prize by proclaiming himself the man who will end all wars. The good words Donald Trump had for Vladimir Putin at the time, mainly following the false accusations of Russian interference in the 2016 elections, have not completely disappeared, and Trump continues to insist on his good relationship with his Russian counterpart, although he has not hidden his "disappointment" for months. The businessman who believed he could resolve everything quickly and cleanly, without much effort, by offering business deals, has found himself in Russia with interests he hadn't considered and a conflict he still doesn't understand. The most obvious proof is that all talk about what might happen, what will be discussed, and what the two countries' proposals will be is limited to the territorial issue, which has never been the main issue in this war.

The tone of the meeting will be very different from what it would have been if the current meeting had been managed as a first step in seeking an agreement a few months ago. Since coming to power, Donald Trump has gradually moved closer to Ukrainian positions, not necessarily out of affinity with Volodymyr Zelensky, but fundamentally because the type of negotiation process Ukraine seeks perfectly suits Trump's interests. The US president seeks a ceasefire that would halt the war and an agreement between Kyiv and Moscow that would make it possible to freeze the war. This is where the "territory swaps" that have caused so much anger in Kyiv and European capitals come into play. The Ukrainian and European position also implies a major rearmament of Ukraine, that is, more economic benefits to offer the US president-businessman, whose interest lies in the short term and not in achieving a final treaty that would make the terms binding and the territorial losses irreversible—at least in the short and medium term.

For Russia, the two-way meeting offers an opportunity to directly present the Russian case and explain the reasons for the war, which require a concrete resolution, to a man who, in the past, has been receptive to some of Moscow's demands. This is the case with the security issue. To the chagrin of his European allies and Ukraine, Donald Trump has even accepted Russia's version of the danger posed by the expansion of NATO, the Cold War-era military bloc to which Ukraine aspires as one of its main demands to end the war.

The strength on the front and the resilience demonstrated by the economy give Russia a privileged position to present its demands and consider rejecting the terms offered by the United States at the Alaska meeting or in a possible negotiation process between Kyiv and Moscow following today's summit. Russia's demands are also maximal and are based on a previous document, specifically the 2022 negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. As then, Russia is now demanding a process of reducing the size of the Ukrainian army, something absolutely unfeasible given that rearmament is already being considered the main European issue for the day after the ceasefire, and a commitment to neutrality that Kyiv will also not accept. Moscow is also demanding a series of political issues that resemble Volodymyr Zelensky's 2019 election platform, when the future president promised cultural and linguistic rights to the Russian-speaking or cultured population, an option that is also no longer on the table. All these aspects were part of the Istanbul pre-agreement, with which Vladimir Medinsky believed he had obtained Ukraine's commitment to stop the war. At that time, Russia was willing to return to Ukraine all the captured territories beyond Donbass. The rupture at that time left unanswered the question of whether Russia claimed all of Donbass or was content with the territories then under its control. Russia's demand is now somewhat clearer, although evidently subject to negotiations. Moscow is demanding a Ukrainian withdrawal from all of Donbass in exchange, not from Kherson or Zaporozhye, but from the territories in Sumi and Kharkiv currently controlled by its troops.

That aspect, the territorial one, is the only one that interests Donald Trump, as he mistakenly sees it as the main contradiction in this war. This is why his objective is to achieve a ceasefire, level the front to avoid a resumption of the battle, and wait for time to pass in the hope that the fighting will stop. Everything that happens after that will be the responsibility of the two presidents and will have to be borne by the European countries. Obtaining Vladimir Putin's commitment to hold the meeting with Zelensky as soon as possible, which the Ukrainian president has been requesting for months, is Donald Trump's second objective. In this context, Russia, which at no point has displayed triumphalism or assumed, as the European media did, that today's meeting will be the beginning of the division of Ukraine by Washington and Moscow, must know that it is coming face to face with the negotiating tactic of incentives and threats that the White House implemented six months ago. The presence of Kirill Dmitrev, from the Russian Direct Investment Fund, in the delegation indicates that part of the meeting will be devoted to economic issues. According to the British press, Trump will offer Russia the possibility of investing in Alaska's rare earths as an incentive, something that will be difficult to satisfy Vladimir Putin if the proposal does not, at the very least, address the security issue. However, the Russian president will have to navigate between two forms of ultimatum: the demand to accept a ceasefire excessively reminiscent of Minsk, or the "devastating consequences" promised by Donald Trump if he sees Russia's position as an obstacle to peace.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/15/el-di ... iplomacia/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Anti-communists are whining that Lavrov flew to the US for talks in a sweatshirt with the word USSR written on it. Like, how is that possible?

In reality, everything is simple. For the first time in a long time, Russia has entered into direct talks with the US on equal terms, something the US had been avoiding for a long time, since it did not consider the Russian Federation worthy of 1-on-1 talks, without satellites, vassals and puppets. But they liked to talk to Russia so much during the "Kozyrevshchina" and did not care about Russia's desires and concerns before the start of the Second World War.

Russia, with its successes at the front and in the diplomatic arena, actually forced the US to seek talks.

This was the case precisely during the times of the USSR, but the US has long since lost the habit of needing such talks with Russia. But the world is changing. So a certain symbolism of Lavrov with the word "USSR" is indeed present.

And our diplomacy should be wished to be as firm and unyielding as in the times of Molotov and Gromyko.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – August 14th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Aug 14, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports:

"Units of the "South" Group decisively liberated the settlement of Shcherbinovka in the Donetsk People's Republic."

"Units of the "East" Group decisively liberated the settlement of Iskra in the Donetsk People's Republic."


The urban-type settlement (UTS) of Shcherbinovka (48°23′10″N, 37°47′41″E, approximately 3,200 residents) is located on the right bank of the Krivoy Torets River and stretches along the riverbank for nearly 6 kilometers. The northern outskirts of the settlement face the villages of Katerinovka and Kleban-Byk, situated on the opposite bank of the river.

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ЛБС 09.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 9th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

This was a well-fortified and strategically advantageous enemy stronghold, which our assault troops methodically dismantled over the course of a year. The breakthrough north of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) forced the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to withdraw some units from the Konstantinovka area and redeploy them to the settlement of Zolotoy Kolodezi. Our assault troops in Shcherbinovka immediately seized this opportunity and advanced further.

This is one example of the skill of patience—waiting, preserving the lives of our soldiers, planning and preparing the operational environment, and capitalizing on it when the time is right.

Thus, the AFU units located south of the reservoir are effectively trapped in a cauldron: the western bank of the reservoir is controlled by Russian Armed Forces units in the Yablonovka–Aleksandro-Klinovo area, while the eastern bank is under fire control by our units that liberated the UTS of Shcherbinovka.

Ahead (to the north) lies the village of Pleshcheevka, which transitions into the village of Ivanopolye, serving as the outer defensive line of the city of Konstantinovka.

The village of Iskra (Aleksandro-Klevtsovo, 48°02′48″N, 36°35′40″E, approximately 800 residents) forms the left flank of the AFU’s Iskra–Aleksandrovgrad defensive area, covering the border of Ukraine’s Dnepropetrovsk Oblast, which runs along the bank of the Volchya River (Wolf River on the map).

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ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.02.2025=Line of Combat Contact February 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.3.2025=Line of Combat Contact March 1st, 2025. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary. Граница областей=Oblast Border*.

In July 2025, the Russian Armed Forces conducted a successful operation to destroy a complex AFU defensive node located between the Mokrye Yaly and Volchya rivers. This success forced the Ukrainian command to reinforce this axis to prevent the Russian army from advancing into Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. Following familiar tactics, our fighters did not attempt to "break down a locked door." Instead, measures were taken to consolidate control over the liberated territory, prepare second-echelon forces and rear units, and carry out troop rotations. Simultaneously, neighboring units to the north, along the Krasnoarmeysk–Konstantinovka line, intensified their efforts. The enemy was compelled to withdraw some of its forces from the Dnepropetrovsk direction to counter the threat near Krasnoarmeysk.

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ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.
Forces of the 36th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces struck at a critical point, forcing the enemy to retreat to the opposite bank of the river.

On yet another sector, our fighters reached the line of the Russian state border.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ugust-14th

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Some Thoughts On The Upcoming Summit

After reading some 20+ pieces about the upcoming Trump-Putin talks I still have no idea of what the outcome might be. Trump's uttering about the talks and Ukraine are, as usually, all over the place.

There seems to be some agreements already between the parties. If it were not so there would be no summit.

The Russian side is aiming at much more than Ukraine. The size and high ranks of its delegation is otherwise unexplained:

The Kremlin aide noted the very high level of the Russian delegation, which he said would include Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Ushakov himself, Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, and Special Presidential Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries Kirill Dmitriev, who has been a key figure in the Ukraine settlement process.
“In addition to the presidents, five members from each delegation will participate in the negotiations,” he said, adding that “of course, a group of experts will also be nearby.”

There are nuclear weapon agreements that need an update and renewal. There are development opportunities in the Arctic and other economic aspects where both sides could win.


In fact, I suspect that there will be no decisions about the war in Ukraine.

The U.S. side knows that the war is a lost cause. Russia holds, as Trump has said, all the cards in that game. Whatever Trump does or says the war will be won on the ground by Russian forces. The best for him is to pull the U.S. out of the conflict and to leave the problem for the European vassals to solve.

For Russia the summit will be a big win even if there were no outcome. It has proven to global majority that it is reasonable and willing to go the extra mile to meet Trump even on U.S. territory. After this there will be no more pressure from China or India to stop the war.

Posted by b at 16:10 UTC | Comments (42)

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/08/s ... l#comments

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Scraping the Barrel: Attrition and Cannibalization
Russo-Ukrainian War: Summer, 2025
Big Serge
Aug 13, 2025

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Loitering in the ruins of Pokrovsk

Note: This article will be relatively short compared to my standard offerings, but I wanted to get some thoughts on paper as the situation north of Pokrovsk develops. Ukraine is facing one of the worst operational crises of the war and the situation is liable to change rapidly. We clearly do not have a perfectly comprehensive picture of how the front is moving, but I think taking the pulse in real time is still valuable.

After three years of war, with the commentariat on both sides eagerly predicting the looming collapse of the enemy, it behooves one to develop a prudent aversion to histrionic predictions. However, it seems fairly obvious that the war in Ukraine is at a critical juncture, and August 2025 will receive considerable play in retrospective accounts of the conflict, as perhaps the last opportunity for Ukraine to cut a deal and slither out of its strategic grave.

On Friday, August 15, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are slated to meet in Alaska to discuss steps to end the war. Whether those talks will be productive remains to be seen, although Trump’s acknowledgement that Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia signals that the White House is at least drifting towards a realism. Predictably, the Alaska meetings are being decried by the Europeans and the Professional Fascism Noticers as a redux of Chamberlain’s Munich Agreement with Hitler, but this does not really matter. In the same sense that, for the alcoholic it is always five o’clock somewhere, for a certain type of person it is always 1938. For these people, World War Two is the only thing that ever happened, it is always happening, and it is always just about to happen.

Just as a brief aside, this is one reason why Alaska is actually a meaningful and pointed place to hold the meetings. The more paranoid sorts believe that there’s some sinister meaning owing to Alaska’s origins as a Russian colony, but the actual symbolism of the site lies in the fact that America does not need to interact with Russia through Europe, and indeed never has. America and Russia can relate to each other bilaterally, without Brussels or London or Kiev as an intermediary.

On the ground, the Alaska meetings coincide with a major rupture of the front. We want to avoid using overly dramatic verbiage, particularly the much dreaded “collapse” label. To be clear, it should not be expected that the AFU is on the verge of being routed completely from the field. Russian forces are not going to roll over the Dnieper next week or sweep into Kiev or Odessa. Ukraine is not “collapsing”, but it is losing, and more specifically it is about to suffer a major defeat at Pokrovsk.

What is happening is not the wholesale disintegration of the Ukrainian army, but we are clearly at a major inflection point with two separate dimensions. First and foremost, the front has ruptured around Pokrovsk (and to a lesser extent around Kupyansk and Lyman), creating one of the most severe operational crises of the war for the AFU. The second dimension is more structural and is the cause of the first: Ukraine’s mounting manpower crisis and its severe shortages of infantry have reached the point where they can no longer properly defend a continuous frontline. Indeed, it may no longer be proper to speak of a “front” at all, but rather a sequence of urban strongpoints with major seams in between them, held together only by the transient threat of drones striking exploiting Russian elements.

The critical development is relatively easy to understand. Over the last week or so, Russian forces worked into a seam in the Ukrainian line north of Pokrovsk and have penetrated deep into the AFU’s rear areas. Notably, the breach is both deep and wide in the context of this war. The gap stretches roughly between the villages of Rodynske and Volodymyrivka and is thus nearly 8 miles wide, and Russian forces have exploited as far as Dobropillya (some 10 miles to the west) and Zolotyi Kolodyaz (11 miles to the north). They have thus exploited on two axes and wedged open a sizeable hole in the Ukrainian front, crossing several unmanned defensive belts which were designed to be Ukrainian fallback positions, and severing one of the main highways connecting the southern front to Kramatorsk.

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There is quite a lot that we do not know about the state of the exploitation right now. At this point, the level of Russian presence in the breach area would seem to vary substantially. Around Dobropillya, for example, the Russian presence is currently limited to intermittent DRG teams (essentially reconnaissance and sabotage units). It is to be expected that the Ukrainians will roll back this advance to some extent. In many ways, however, the extent of the penetration to the north is of secondary importance, because the gash in the front has allowed the noose around Pokrovsk to tighten significantly. In the last 24 hours, Russian forces moved into Rodynske, cutting yet another arterial highway into Pokrovsk.

While the attention has been drawn to the Russian “arrows” fanning out to the northwest, Pokrovsk has been put into a severe salient, with only the E50 highway still open to Ukrainian forces. The presence of Russian light infantry teams around Dobropillya is almost immaterial compared to the firebag around Pokrovsk. We are almost certainly in the terminal phase of the battle for the city, and the Russian breakout to the north provides a screen for the net to tighten around the city. More explicitly, I would argue that the thrust through the gap to the north is essentially a screening move designed to bring Pokrovsk to the brink, and our attention should be on the coming fall of the city, rather than on some Russian exploiting maneuver to the north.

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Situation around Pokrovsk on 8/12/25, from Kalibrated Maps

Things look no better for Ukraine in other sectors of front. They are continually giving ground around Kostyantynivka and on the approach to Lyman (there is a steady rollback of the front around the Donets River). At the far northern end of the line, however, there is a secondary operational crisis brewing, with the Russians firmly dug into northern Kupyansk. The situation here has received far less attention than the central Donbas, but it is deeply threatening for the AFU. Russian positions on the western sideof the Oskil are currently about a mile away from the only bridge over the river, while the Ukrainians are still attempting to defend a salient on the eastern bank. As in Pokrovosk, the stubborn defense of untenable positions continues for far too long.

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Situation around Kupyansk on 8/12/25, per Kalibrated Maps

All of this has been examined in detail already, by me and by others. The geometry of the front has been fairly predictable up to this point, and around Pokrovsk in particular things are developing largely as expected. What we’re seeing is something very similar to what I predicted earlier, with a runaway double envelopment of the cities facilitated by movement into the seam between them. Pokrovsk is on line to develop into one of the more complete encirclements of the war. There is a distinct possibility that Russia will seal the city off in the coming week, turning Pokrovsk into a mass casualty debacle for the Ukrainians. The situation is particularly dangerous for the AFU forces defending Myrnograd (to the east of Pokrovsk), as they are now ten miles *east* of the only remaining exit from the pocket, and they therefore have no way to safely leave.

What is perhaps even more important, and the point toward which we are working, is the matter of why this happened in this particular way, at this particular time, and this of course relates to the question of attrition.

Attrition has become a major buzzword in this war, but it’s important to understand that “attrition” as such does not simply mean taking casualties, or even the disparity between casualties and replacement personnel. What we are seeing in Ukraine is the fairly textbook degradation of the force via attrition, which has a variety of components to it.

We can begin, of course, with the raw input and output of homo sapiens, which is losses measured against replacements. The math here is dreadful for Ukraine; the UA losses project has counted roughly 158,000 permanent casualties to this point (confirmed killed or missing in action), and estimates of the total wounded are closing in on 400,000. Some wounded will inevitably be able to return to action, but most will not (particularly given the exorbitantly high rate of amputees reported by Ukrainian sources). Even being conservative and taking Zelensky’s numbers at face value, Ukraine has absorbed at least 420,000 casualties to this point. It is important, furthermore, to remember that these casualties will disproportionately occur among the infantry. If roughly half of Ukraine’s million personnel are infantry, it is not unreasonable to presume that something like 50-60% of Ukrainian infantry have become casualties, if not more.

It has been unable to offset these losses with conscription. Ukraine’s mobilization drive has been badly misunderstood, largely due to a failure to correctly interpret the many videos of conscription teams grabbing men off the street. The idea of Ukrainian officials driving around in unmarked vans and press-ganging men at random suggests the idea of a highly extractive state that is mobilizing everyone, but the truth is rather the opposite. Physically abducting conscripts is a very inefficient way to intake personnel, and it’s a method that is only resorted to because the bureaucratic mobilization system is failing. It has been widely reported that many Ukrainian districts are hitting only 20% of their mobilization quotas, and even after passing an intensified mobilization law last year, Ukraine’s intake of new personnel has slowed down. Only a fraction of Ukraine’s conscription summons are answered, and the meat busses that prowl city streets looking for infantry are a poor, half hearted substitute for a functioning personnel system.

Ukraine has a problem with the brute mathematics of the situation: casualties far exceed intake of men. It has exacerbated these issues, however, by choosing to expand its force structure, creating new mechanized brigades rather than allocating new personnel as replacements for existing formations. It has political reasons for doing so: since Ukraine insists that it is fighting not merely to hold the line, but also to go back on the offensive and roll the Russians back, it must appear to be raising and hoarding fresh forces for that purpose. By allocating freshly mobilized personnel to new brigades, however, Ukraine artificially constrained the flow of replacements (already inadequate) to the front line. Thus, we arrive at the current situation, where the Ukrainian Army is short 300,000 men, with frontline brigades at as little as 30% of their regulation infantry strength.

When shortfalls mount like this, the attrition of the force becomes self-reinforcing and continues at an exponential rate. This, in particular, seems to be unappreciated by many: attrition creates a positive feedback loop, for several reasons.

Cannibalization of the tail: as infantry complements wear down without replacement, individual formations are compelled to cannibalize their support personnel to fill out the frontlines. Rear area personnel and artillerymen are sent forward to reinforce brigade infantry complements, and eventually this process spreads from individual brigades to the armed forces writ large. Replacing infantry ad-hoc with personnel who are not trained for that purpose not only reduces the quality of the infantry, but cannibalizes, distorts, and dismantles the structure of the army. Brigades gradually lose their suitability for the full range of combat tasks as they eat themselves for infantry.

Increased wear due to lack of rotations: Ukraine has significant difficulty providing regular rotation of frontline units (parlance for pulling units out of the line episodically to rest and refit). There are a variety of reasons for this, including a lack of reserves to replace units in the line, persistent Russian pressure, and the use of drones to restrict movement behind the lines. The lack of rotation not only reduces the combat effectiveness of Ukrainian units (simply due to mounting fatigue) but increases the depletion of frontline formations by keeping them pinned in the line for extended periods of time.

Increasing Desertions: The rising rate of desertion was already becoming a point of significant concern in 2024, and has increased further this year. Disproportionate casualties, forced mobilization, accelerated training timetables, and long stays at the frontline without rotation all encourage infantry in particular to desert their posts.

Misallocation of premiere assets: Ukraine has a limited inventory of the critical brigades that form the mainstay of its combat power: namely the mechanized, air assault, marine infantry, and assault brigades. In 2023 and 2024, these were the formations expected to provide the heft to Ukraine’s counteroffensives, both in the south and in Kursk. Due to the general shortage of infantry, however, these premier brigades regularly become pinned in the line and are wasted in positional defense. The majority of Ukraine’s premier assets are currently defending in the line in Sumy and the Donbas. This prevents Ukraine from accumulating resources to take the initiative, and essentially downgrades the AFU’s mechanized package from a strategic asset (which can be used for proactive operations) to tactical assets for positional defense. The situation can be likened to Germany in 1944, where dwindling force generation compelled the Wehrmacht to waste their valuable panzer divisions and specialized formations by using them as line infantry.

Russia has fed into this cycle by maintaining a steady attacking tempo in no less than 6 sectors of front: Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Sumy. Consistent pressure has left the Ukrainian front bleeding from multiple cuts, so that in some areas it no longer makes sense to speak of a continuous front at all. In the breach area north of Pokrovsk, several miles of Ukrainian front were more or less unmanned. The AFU has maintained enough strike capability (mainly with FPV drones) to limit Russian exploitation, but this is ultimately a half measure. Drones can kill, but only human beings can hold positions.

The summer campaign has now put Ukraine in an untenable position. The Russians are staged to assault as many as four cities at once, and we should see concurrent operations to take Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, Kupyansk, and potentially Lyman, creating pressure at widely separated points. The AFU can only react to so many crises before it ceases to react at all, and the dissipated threats to multiple strategic cities creates command paralysis for Ukraine, which is only exacerbated when the Russians thrust forces into unmanned seams in the line, as they just did north of Pokrovsk.

The broad picture that emerges is one where Ukrainian units are attrited to the point where the AFU is being thrust into a state of permanent reactivity. Constant pressure on the line is absorbing all the available combat power, and the demands placed on Ukraine by their attempts to defend four strategic axes will leave them without the reserves or resources to attempt a meaningful counterblow of their own. The front will be squeezed from all directions until it begins to pop. It is popping in Pokrovsk, with Kostyantynivka, Lyman, and Kupyansk to follow soon.

Putin will descend on Alaska with full confidence, as events on the ground proceed in Russia’s favor. Ukraine has already made it known that they are categorically refusing to cede the Donbas, and it is easy to see how Kiev’s pathologically devotion to its “territorial integrity” will upset the prospects for a settlement. Both Ukraine and Russia insist that the four disputed oblasts are nonnegotiable and sacrosanct territories, enshrined in their respective constitutions. Fair enough, one supposes, but constitutions have no real power. Armies do, and the Ukrainian army is looking increasingly threadbare, as it cannibalizes its own force structure in a desperate search for warm bodies to hold the line.

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/scrapin ... rition-and

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Ukrainian ship carrying weapons sunk by Russian submarine.
Slavik Yablochny
There is no way out of the Bathhouse, absolutely, yeah!
August 12, 22:40 103 13252

According to Russian military sources, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Russian submarine Project 636.3 Varshavyanka , nicknamed the "Black Hole" by the US Navy for its effective stealth during missions,sank a merchant ship carrying weapons bound for Ukraine.

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The ship was sailing along the coast of Bulgaria and Romania to the mouth of the Danube more than 10 days ago (on the night of July 25-26) on the way to transport grain between Ukraine and the Bosphorus Strait.

The merchant vessel, flying the flag of a NATO member state, was registered as a civilian vessel but was in fact carrying weapons shipped from Australia and other NATO countries to Ukraine.

The attack was one of the most serious attacks on NATO logistics since the start of the special operation in Ukraine and demonstrated the ability of Russian intelligence services to obtain information about military cargo “disguised” as civilian .

This has put the Pentagon and NATO in a very awkward position given the complete silence and secrecy surrounding the whole issue, as they certainly cannot admit to having weapons on board.

The attack, the explosion of which Romanian fishermen described as "sunlight at night in the middle of the sea", deprives the Ukrainian armed forces of strategic reserves.

The following sank along with the ship:

– 60 M1A1 Abrams tanks
– 300 Javelin anti-tank missiles
– 150 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
– 150 Block 1 anti-tank missiles

– 200 tons of small arms (M4 rifles, AK416 machine guns), grenade launchers, 155-mm artillery ammunition



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https://cont.ws/@slavikapple/3100214

Google Translator

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All the troubles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces come from the USSR
August 14, 2025
Rybar

" WSJ's Master Class on Clueless Narrative Development "

We have long been interested in the question: how will Western media, which previously wrote articles with the message “the advanced Ukrainian Armed Forces will sweep away the backward Russian army,” ultimately explain the radical break between their propaganda and reality?

The answer was simple: it turns out that the USSR is to blame for everything! According to the WSJ, in 2022, the so-called Ukraine used NATO standards with decentralization and so on, but then returned to the Soviet model of military management, and everything immediately went to hell.

Every problem of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the article is explained by Soviet influence - from the media frontal attacks with large losses to the failed invasion of the Kursk region. Even Syrsky was reminded of the end of the MVOKU.

You know, the point is not that everything described was inherent in the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2022, and in three years with the Western assistance the “Soviet legacy” could have been eradicated five times. It’s simply amazing how clumsily and stupidly the WSJ and similar media outlets work out narratives.

The desire to reduce the failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the imaginary "Soviet approach" and to extol "NATO standards" perfectly demonstrates the level of analysis and the peculiarities of perception in the West. And how such arrogance ends is well known.

There is another funny moment in the article: everywhere there is a reservation that the situation with the Russian Armed Forces is even worse, and in general they are simply overwhelming the Ukrainians with “human waves”. But why, with such a paradigm, “busification” is observed only in the so-called Ukraine, the WSJ, naturally, does not explain.

https://rybar.ru/vse-bedy-vsu-ot-sssr/

Google Translator

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Summit Preparation News From Russia
Karl Sanchez
Aug 14, 2025

Before the meeting on preparations for the Russian-US summit to be held on August 15 in Anchorage. From left to right: Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office and Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Putin addressed his upper management team on the Summit with Yuri Ushakov providing a statement to the press via the Kremlin website. At this moment, very little of the content of Putin’s address was published, but more might be added later. If that occurs, I’ll add whatever that is in the comment section.
Yu. Ushakov: Dear colleagues!

The preparations for the meeting between the Russian and U.S. presidents have entered the final phase. Given that the meeting was announced only five days ago, on the night of last Friday to Saturday, everything is being done on an intensive basis, and a lot of technical issues, including visa issues, are being resolved. Of course, the political aspects of the summit are being actively discussed.

I can tell you that the leaders' meeting program has been agreed upon. As you all know, this meeting will take place in Alaska, in Anchorage, specifically in one of the facilities at the Joint Military Base Elmendorf-Richardson. The meeting is scheduled to begin tomorrow, August 15, at approximately 11:30 a.m. local time, with a conversation between Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Donald Trump President of the United States of America . This conversation will be held in a private setting, with the participation of interpreters. Then, the delegations will hold negotiations, which will continue at a working breakfast.

The composition of the participants has already been determined. Given that very important and sensitive topics will be discussed, the number of participants in the negotiations is limited. I will name the members of the Russian delegation: these are the Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov Sergey Lavrov Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation; Assistant to the President for Foreign Policy Yuri Ushakov Yuri Viktorovich Assistant to the President; Andrey Belousov Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation; Anton Germanovich Siluanov Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation; and Kirill Dmitriev General Director of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Special Representative of the President for Investment and Economic cooperation with Foreign Countries . The composition of the American delegation is also known, but it would probably be appropriate to wait for an announcement from our American partners. This means that in addition to the presidents, there will be five members of each delegation participating in the negotiations. Of course, there will also be a group of experts present.

After the talks are over, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will hold a joint press conference to sum up the results of the talks. As for the summit's agenda, it's probably clear to everyone that the central topic will be the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis, including the discussions that were held in the Kremlin on August 6, with the participation of US President's Special Envoy, Stephen Whitcoff. However, the summit will also address broader issues related to peace and security, as well as pressing international and regional concerns. There will be an exchange of views on the further development of bilateral cooperation, including in the trade and economic spheres. I would like to note that this cooperation has enormous potential that has not yet been fully utilized.

What else would I like to mention? Next to the military base where the negotiations will take place, nine Soviet pilots are buried in the memorial cemetery, as well as two servicemen and two civilians who died between 1942-45 when aircraft from the United States were transported to the Soviet Union under Lend-Lease. So, the meeting will be held near such a historically important place, which reminds of the military brotherhood of the peoples of our countries. And this is especially symbolic in the year of the 80th anniversary of the Victory over Nazi Germany and militaristic Japan.

Dear colleagues, this is about what I wanted to tell you about the visit, which, as I mentioned, will begin tomorrow morning local time.

Thank you
Public sentiment within Russia does not favor the participation of the Outlaw US Empire in Russia’s development until a great many atonements are made, and then greatly limited. As Ryabkov stated earlier this week, preliminary moves to improve relations still have yet to occur after seven months. And then we have Trump’s latest crazed outburst about Putin ending the SMO immediately upon their meeting, which IMO was an unprecedented extremely undiplomatic gaff that Team Putin will ignore and allow to fly over their heads. Although not explicit, the Summit is of the hit-and-run variety with the working breakfast being the only joint event. And now for Putin’s few published words:
V. Putin: Dear colleagues, good afternoon!

I have asked you to come here today to inform you about the progress of the negotiations on the Ukrainian crisis and the bilateral negotiations with the Ukrainian delegation. Of course, many of you are already familiar with the situation, but I will provide you with more details. This is the first point.

The second is to tell you about the stage we are at with the current American administration, which, as everyone knows, is making what I believe to be a very energetic and sincere effort to end the fighting, end the crisis, and reach agreements that are of interest to all parties involved in this conflict, in order to create long-term peace conditions between our countries, in Europe, and in the world as a whole, if we reach agreements on strategic offensive arms control by the next stage.

This is what I wanted to say at the beginning.
I’m curious about the actual “crisis” “conflict” Putin is referring to. IMO, it sounds like the need to put a formal end to the Cold War and not specifically to the SMO since there was never any actual Peace Treaty signed in 1990, just the promises made that were broken, plus the subsequent three OSCE Treaties that were also broken. In other words, a specific response to Russia’s December 2021 security proposals. Will anything positive emerge from the Summit? Well, as many have admitted, it’s better for these two men to meet and talk than for the situation that existed during the Biden term to have continued. But, IMO we must remain realistic about the nature of the Outlaw US Empire, that it continues to pursue a predatory policy toward all nations of the world, and that Trump has no real control over that policy or those pushing it. A quick look at Russian media shows continuing pundit and editorial spin when what needed to be published is what you all read above. Later today during the Hudson/Wolff/Nima chat, I expect them to give their estimations on what will transpire.

https://karlof1.substack.com/p/summit-p ... rom-russia

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Let's fly
August 15, 3:34

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Two Il-96 planes have already arrived in Alaska. They are carrying journalists and security. Today will be an important day one way or another, which will show what the behind-the-scenes negotiations were really about for many months.

Expected compositions of delegations.

RF

Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Defense Minister Andrey Belousov.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
Head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev.
Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov.

USA

US President Donald Trump.
US Vice President J.D. Vance.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Lavrov has already arrived.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10011561.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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blindpig
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Aug 16, 2025 12:00 pm

A first step towards diplomacy
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 08/16/2025

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Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, experienced its most media-intensive day yesterday. Surrounded by a pro-Ukrainian mobilization prepared throughout the week, the Russian delegation arrived in the territory it sold to the United States in the 19th century for the first Russian-American summit in three years. The images of the large "Alaska 2025" sign with the red carpet from the airplane steps awaiting the delegation led by Donald Trump and the one headed by Vladimir Putin, the US president receiving his Russian counterpart, posing next to him, and both leaving the venue in the same vehicle on the way to the meeting were the perfect representation of the failure of the European policy of isolating Russia. Hence, headlines such as the one published by El País , which stated that "the most disturbing thing about the Alaska summit is that something could come out of it," should not be surprising. This was the main fear of European countries and Ukraine, for whom, as the Danish Prime Minister declared a few months ago, "peace can be more dangerous than war." Absent from the summit, despite having outlined their red lines in a joint conference call with Donald Trump, the European countries hoped to avoid a scenario in which the two presidents agreed on a framework for resolving the war. Faced with this scenario, the most negative for Europe and Ukraine, which would have to resign themselves to obtaining as much as possible within pre-established guidelines, the hope was that Donald Trump would emerge from the meeting affirming what he has said in the past: his frustration at having had a good conversation but not being able to get Vladimir Putin to budge on his demands.

As expected, the press has analyzed every detail, real or imagined, to understand them as hidden messages. Throughout the day, outlets like The Telegraph spent their energy analyzing the sweatshirt Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov wore when he landed in Alaska. “It is surprising that Sergei Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister since 2004, arrived in Alaska this morning wearing a CCCP (the Cyrillic acronym for the USSR) sweater. Surprising for two reasons,” the outlet explained in its live coverage of the summit. “First, because Lavrov shares the same remarkable characteristic as Gromyko: longevity. In every other respect, he is a truly despicable man: dishonesty is his modus vivendi, serving a regime based on theft, corruption, lies, and force,” the outlet wrote, adding as a second reason that “with his USSR sweater, Lavrov is simply rubbing in our faces what should already be clear to anyone not in Russia's pay. In other words, he is making it clear that Russia is determined to recreate the Soviet Union.” In yet another example of the press's historical manipulation, the article was titled “The image that proves Putin wants to recreate the Russian Empire.”

History is also relevant when analyzing the location where yesterday's much-discussed summit took place. The military base, where a high-level US delegation was present, represents the state of relations between Russia and the United States as well as the message on Lavrov's sweatshirt. Although it was always clear that Moscow would emphasize the positive side, the location represents much more than the collaboration between them. The base is one of the places from which the United States sent supplies to its Soviet ally during World War II, but it also bears the name of one of the visible faces of the US intervention in the Russian Civil War as part of the counterrevolutionary violence that sought to destroy the Soviet Union even before its birth. The anecdote is representative of the attitude with which Donald Trump's team approached the meeting, a carrot and stick with which the American president hoped to achieve his two clear objectives: to force Vladimir Putin to accept the ceasefire he proposed in March and ordered Zelensky to accept, and to get the Kremlin to agree to an immediate meeting with the Ukrainian leader.

In contrast to the manipulation carried out throughout the week to exaggerate both the possibilities and the risks of the meeting, the summit was never intended to "divide Ukraine," "cede territory," or "offer Russia the exploitation of minerals and rare earths from Ukrainian territories under Moscow's control," but rather to force Vladimir Putin, in person, to accept US tutelage in the process of resolving the Russo-Ukrainian war. Although absent, Ukraine appeared at the summit with the clear objective of its US patron ensuring that kyiv avoids the worst-case scenario of negotiations from a position of weakness against a Russia that has imposed its narrative and based on a predetermined framework, including, among other things, the internalized veto on NATO membership, and it is assumed that kyiv must cede territory—that is, renounce the military recovery of what has already been lost—as a prerequisite for diplomacy.

The warm reception given to the Russian president, who was even honored with a US aircraft flyover, should not be misleading. Praise and warnings have been mixed in every detail of this summit. The four F-35s that greeted Putin were escorting a B2 bomber, like the ones the United States used to bomb Russia's only ally in the Middle East, Iran, which Donald Trump imposed an ultimatum demanding surrender in negotiations and attacked when it decided that diplomacy would not yield the desired result. The threatening message is evident, as have the US president's words throughout the week, promising negative consequences for Russia—and possibly for its allies and clients in the Russian energy sector—if Vladimir Putin did not accept the US proposal. As he had announced the day before, Trump's objective was none other than to secure Vladimir Putin's commitment to an immediate meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, something that could possibly only be achieved after declaring a ceasefire. This was also the dream of European countries and Ukraine, aware that, in a negotiation process, halting the movement at the front means reducing the difference in strength between the parties. When it comes to flexing its muscles at the negotiating table and trying to impose wills, Russia's strength is based on its position in the battle, its obvious progress in the face of Ukraine's growing difficulties, which, despite a multi-billion-dollar influx of weapons and ammunition, has made it clear that it will not be able to militarily defeat Russia. Ukraine's strength, on the other hand, lies in its allies, capable, due to their position of political hegemony, of imposing their will using force in a different way. This way of neutralizing Russian strength without undermining Ukraine's is the only reason why European countries demand a ceasefire as a prerequisite for long-term political negotiations, in which they are aware that, given Trump's lack of interest, they would have the upper hand.

The fact that, according to what has emerged from the conversations held during the two meetings—the first of three, attended by the presidents, foreign ministers, and advisors, and the second with the entire delegation—no decisions have been announced on security issues or territorial exchanges, is not a victory for the European positions that the press will present from now on, but rather the logic of the type of meeting Donald Trump had called for. The fact that the ceasefire demanded by European countries and Ukraine has not been announced is also not a sign that the Russian position has completely prevailed. In the press conference following the presidential meeting, Donald Trump addressed Vladimir Putin, stating that they would meet again soon, something that can be seen as a sign that the meeting that the American leader has been demanding for some time, a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders, is about to take place. However, while we await the information that is conveyed to European partners, there is still no information available to speculate on the "understanding" that Vladimir Putin claimed was reached at the meeting.

Despite the pompous receptions and the insistence on the historic nature of the meeting, yesterday's summit was not supposed to be the culmination of the diplomatic process, but simply the beginning of a dialogue aimed at achieving peace, something that can only be achieved through political negotiations with the active participation of Russia and Ukraine. The shuttle diplomacy carried out by the United States to establish pre-established terms of negotiations was merely the preliminary phase of what must now begin: a difficult process in which both sides will have to make concessions, in which contradictions will arise between the red lines and the possibilities of achieving the primary objectives, and in which certainties, from the outset, do not exist.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/16/un-pr ... iplomacia/

Google Translator

I do not understand what concessions Russia could make other than business concessions. Moscow has stated it's case many times and any reversal could have ill effect domestically.

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Trump briefed European leaders on the results of the summit with Russia in Alaska, the European Commission said.

Some officials in Europe are concerned that Trump will now pressure Zelensky to make territorial concessions, Bloomberg reports.

Zelensky's phone call with Trump was also attended by EC Chairman von der Leyen, President Macron, Chancellor Merz, President Stubb, President Nawrocki, Prime Minister Starmer, NATO Secretary General Rutte, US Secretary of State Rubio and US Special Representative Witkoff.

Axios claims that the phone call "was not easy."

During the phone call with Zelensky and European leaders, Trump said that Putin is not interested in a ceasefire, but seeks a comprehensive agreement to end the war.

Trump expressed the opinion that " a quick peace agreement is better than a ceasefire . "

Zelensky will meet with Trump at the White House on Monday, where he was called to the carpet.

***

Colonelcassad
European leaders are ready to work with Trump and Zelensky to prepare a trilateral summit of Russia, the United States, and Ukraine with the support of Europe. This was stated in a joint statement by European leaders following the talks between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

"We clearly understand that Ukraine must have unbreakable security guarantees to effectively protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity. We welcome President Trump's statement that the United States is ready to provide security guarantees," the statement said.

In conclusion, they noted that the EU countries, with the participation of Britain, will continue to exert comprehensive pressure on the Russian Federation. The EU leaders insist on limiting the Russian Federation's veto power over Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO.

***

Colonelcassad
Meeting in Alaska
First results

1 . A full-fledged mechanism for meetings between Russia and the United States at the highest level has been restored. Calm, without ultimatums and threats.

2 . The Russian President personally and in detail outlined to the US President our conditions for ending the conflict in Ukraine.

3 . Following an almost three-hour conversation, the head of the White House refused to escalate pressure on Russia. At least for now.

4 . Important: the meeting proved that negotiations are possible without preconditions and simultaneously with the continuation of the NWO.

5 . Most important: both sides directly placed responsibility for achieving future results in the negotiations on ending military action on Kiev and Europe.

@medvedev_telegram

***

Colonelcassad
0:06
An agreement on Ukraine now depends on Zelensky, Trump said in an interview with Fox News. The US President added that there is a "pretty high probability" of concluding an agreement on a settlement in Ukraine.

Other statements by the American leader:

- Negotiations were held on many positions, there is great progress. The US President expressed confidence that Putin wants to reach an agreement on Ukraine;

- The end of the conflict in Ukraine will mark an important achievement for both Putin and Zelensky;

- Trump refused to say what the points of agreement and disagreement are after his meeting with Putin;

- Russia has great nuclear potential and this must be taken into account;

- There is a very good chance of reaching an agreement on Ukraine, the meeting with Putin in Alaska was 10 out of 10;

- The parties are starting to prepare for a meeting with the participation of himself, Putin and Zelensky. The Kremlin has not confirmed this in any way;

- European countries also need to participate "a little" in the Ukrainian settlement;

- He stated that he considers Russia a powerful state, unlike Ukraine, and advised Kiev to "make a deal."

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – August 15th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Aug 15, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "Decisive actions by servicemen of the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the "East" Group led to a breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine's defense and the liberation of the settlement of Aleksandrograd in the DPR." Marked with a Russian Flag*

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ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.02.2025=Line of Combat Contact February 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.3.2025=Line of Combat Contact March 1st, 2025. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary. Граница областей=Oblast Border*.

UAV operators played a special role during the assault. They conducted aerial reconnaissance and also struck AFU's equipment and personnel.

The small village of Aleksandrograd (47°58′26″N 36°36′14″E, about 120 inhabitants) allows control over the entrance to the Orlanskaya and Hrushevoe ravines, which start at the end at the Volchya River (Wolf River on the map).

By liberating this village, the Russian Armed Forces have practically completed the liberation of the southern part of the DPR from the village of Orekhovo (liberated on 12.6.2025) to the village of Aleksandrograd. Our troops have reached the state border line (in this section) stretching about 75 kilometers, with separate incursions into the territory of the Dnepropetrovsk region (along the Voskresenka - Yanvarskoe line up to 3 kilometers).

South of this remains a small section of the border (about 14 kilometers long) covered by the Armed Forces of Ukraine's defense area of Kamyshevakha, located on a convenient elevation with support from the Voronaya River. It is quite likely that this section, covering about 40 km², will also be liberated in the near future.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ugust-15th

******

SITREP 8/13/25: Pokrovsk Breakthrough Continuation
Simplicius
Aug 13, 2025

A quick scattershot update as addendum to yesterday’s main report on the ongoing Pokrovsk situation.

Now that we’ve had a day for events to settle a bit, we can get at least a somewhat clearer picture of what’s sticking and what isn’t, as far as the advances go. Despite Ukrainian claims of counter-attacks and deployments of elite units, it appears the bulk of Russian advances have solidified, though it may be too early to speak of true ‘consolidation’. But in the case of the ‘bunny ears’ salient towards Zolotyi Kolodyaz, we can say the breakthrough has even widened to bulk up its flanks:

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There is still no absolute certainty precisely where the line of control is, but what apparently has been confirmed is that the main Dobropillya-Pokrovsk highway has been breached and totally cut by Russian forces just north of Rodinske, which itself is being stormed:

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Russian soldiers took over the Krasnolymanskaya Mine and were able to enter the Rodynske after further advance. Small advances in Chervonyi Lyman also.

South of Pokrovsk, soldiers trained by Spetsnaz along with 506th's "Typhoon" assault brigade and the 35th MRB unit allegedly advanced into the city. Russian forces also advanced east of the city.

The situation may very well be worse for Ukraine than the latest reports show.


The green circle represents the last remaining MSR of the E50 road, which some sources indicate is under fire-control. If true, that would mean the entire agglomerate is essentially cut off. Sure, there is still the smaller road outlined in white above. But the problem is, using one smaller backroad to funnel the entire logistics train for a massive two-city agglomerate is patent disaster. Rather than being distributed and dispersed, all logistics would be funneled into this one lane which would come under mass drone attack.

But again, we’ve seen this drill many times before. Usually how it works is the road under ‘fire control’—say, the E50 above—will still be somewhat usable at night, where most of the resupply and rotations will occur. Thus, I’m sure the cut-off is not entirely complete, but is likely putting tremendous pressure on the sector’s logistics.

Some Russian channels are claiming Rodinske is also currently being stormed and almost entirely taken:

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Many, by the way, have likened the current scenario to the Debaltsevo cauldron which happened right in the lead up to Minsk 2.0 in February 2015. Some fear that Russia’s breach has political motivations and is meant to be some final desperate land-grab before Putin buttons up the conflict with Trump. But clearly the Alaska meeting will bring no such conclusions: even the US State Department spokesman now says the meeting is “not a negotiations”, and seems more an informal feeler for Trump to dangle a few test carrots in front of Putin.

Several sources now report that Russian officials have again reiterated that all original Russian demands are still firm, to wit:

"Russia will not make territorial concessions in Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye regions. The territorial structure of Russia is enshrined in the country's constitution," - Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Getting back to the front, one other thing that no one has mentioned is that in neighboring Konstantinovka, also quickly turning critical for the AFU, Russian forces have reportedly made another fairly large breakthrough after capturing Chasov Yar. They have now taken Stupochky and Predtechyne, seen below:

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That’s not to mention after Bila Hora was captured to the south, the next settlement was entered, creating a mini-cauldron likely to soon collapse between Bila Hora and Predtechyne.

We can see how the fronts relate as according to sources, the AFU’s 93rd Brigade was pulled from Predtechyne to reinforce the western flank of Zolotyi Kolodyaz on the ‘bunny ears’ of the north-Pokrovsk breakthrough. Soon as they were pulled, the settlement fell.

Others of the ‘elite’ brigades were likewise pulled as emergency stopgap measure from other fronts. AMK_Mapping elaborates on the issue this represents:

The 12th "Azov" Brigade was pulled from Shcerbynivka, west of Toretsk. Most of Shcherbynivka is now under Russian control, with the remaining Ukrainian formations there under extreme pressure in the northernmost part.

The Ukrainian command is prioritising Dobropillya and Bilozerske over Kostyantynivka.

This is what I and so many others mean when we say Ukraine has critical manpower shortages - they have to pull forces away from critical parts of the front to the most critical part just to prevent a breakthrough like this from blooming even further.

That's when we see Russian pushes happen in the area where Ukrainian forces were pulled away from, because Russia knows that advancing will become much easier there. This contributes to the overall goal of stretching and probing the frontline further, making cohesive defence untenable.

AMK Mapping


Likewise on the northern Krasny Lyman front, after capturing Torske (not to be confused with earlier-mentioned Toretsk) yesterday, Russian forces are already entering neighboring Zarichne, seen in the lightly colored reddish area inside the red circle below:

Image

A word on tactics:

In the premium piece yesterday we discussed Russia’s newly-honed Recon-Fire-Complex and how it has paralyzed AFU defenders from being able to respond to Russian advances. Today we’ve had some examples of this in Pokrovsk where roughly 50 accurate glide bomb strike sites are seen on the scattered Ukrainian ‘picket’ positions inside the hedgerows:

In this single satellite picture taken north of Pokrovsk, we can see no less than 50 airstrikes, with more than half hitting treelines and buildings where ukrainian soldiers are hiding. All those happened since June 11th.

Image

A French analyst has mapped all the airstrikes in the Pokrovsk region from May onward. For instance, he tallied a monstrous 1,100 strikes on the Pokrovsk corridor just from May to June alone:

I started mapping those airstrikes near Pokrovsk in late june when I noticed large strikes against ukrainian fortifications. Since then, I put dots for every airstrike, with different color each month. Here is may to june 11th 2025, 1 100 airstrikes.

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He continued mapping them through the months leading up to this breakthrough, coming up with a total 3,200 strikes, 1,400 of which were from July 11 to August 11.

He states that airstrikes began targeting the ‘New Donbass’ line, as the large rear fortification Ukraine was in the process of building is called:

More interestingly, I managed to find around 20 new airstrikes aroun the new Donbass line. This is where russian assault units managed to breakthrough as per deepstate reports.

He states that the strikes likely targeted the ongoing construction, which facilitated the later Russian breakthrough of precisely this zone:

You can see here more than 20 FAB impacts all around the hole in the defensive line. This probably stopped the urgent engineering work to fill the hole. Russian forces may have entered the village here.

Image

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Where russian airforce is bombing, russian infantry is following.

Other analysts have likewise been able to predict many of Russia’s advances by simply pinpointing where the most intense glide bomb bombardments are carried out. Some have noted that the Dobropillya area was subjected to unusually large strikes for the past month, and now we know why.



Speaking of tactics, WSJ has a new piece that blames Ukraine’s faults on its legacy ‘Soviet’ military system.

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https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-russi ... t-5fa8e1c9

The thesis the article presents is a comically backward one and essentially awards all Ukraine’s battlefield successes to the ‘NATO’ or ‘Western’ system, while selectively blaming all failures on the ‘Soviet’ one.

It begins:

SUMY, Ukraine — In the first year of Russia’s all-out invasion, Ukraine’s defenders repeatedly outmaneuvered a lumbering Russian army, relying on improvisation and the judgment of men in the field.

But now, they have somehow ‘regressed’:

Three years on, Ukraine’s military has slipped back into a more rigid, top-down mode of fighting with roots in the Soviet era, creating mounting frustration about unnecessary casualties while hurting civilian morale and army recruitment. Without overhauls, the Soviet-style habits could undermine Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense against Russia, which shows no sign of relenting in its quest to conquer the country.

Image

They hilariously claim Russia, too, suffers from a Soviet system of an ‘iron fist’-style command, which is why Russia is unable to win—insert eyeroll here. When you really study their examples, you realize how shallow and unconvincing the arguments are. They essentially claim any bad decision carried out by the AFU command is due to a “Soviet” system—for instance, the Kursk assault.

But what does that have to do with a rigid “top-down style command”? It’s simply a bad military decision, period. What one quickly notices in these arguments, particularly when they’re developed and elaborated on by the pro-UA commentariat, is that none of the people making them even actually understand how Western command systems work.

They’ve adopted a bizarre caricatured conception where any military that has a commander-in-chief who hands down orders is by default a ‘Soviet’ one; and what is the alternative, you ask? They seem to believe the West has no centralized command at all, and orders from above simply do not exist. All decisions are completely at the behest of lower echelon commanders in some kind of utopian free-for-all.

But this is not the case at all: do they really think Desert Storm and major operations of that sort were not entirely planned and scripted by the various central command organs? In fact, NATO and the West have a far more bureaucratized and top-heavy command than Russia, and it’s not even close. When you count all the various theater commands like EUCOM, EUSAREUR-AF, Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe, Allied Command Operations, etc.—who do they think does all the theater and operations planning?

These casuals and armchair types seem to think that Western forces have no generals at all, and instead rely entirely on some kind of “superhero”-esque NCOs to command everything from tactical up to the strategic level of theater operations—a notion that’s simply absurd. In fact, even during 2023’s grand Zaporozhye ‘counter-offensive’ we saw that US generals actually micro-managed the entire planning and operations aspects of the disaster from the earliest stages, and with a heavy hand at that, as it later came to be known.

Image
https://archive.ph/CNpQO

● Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop war games to build a campaign plan. But Washington miscalculated the extent to which Ukraine’s forces could be transformed into a Western-style fighting force in a short period — especially without giving Kyiv air power integral to modern militaries.

In reality, as I’ve been explaining for two years now, the Russian Armed Forces have proven to have far more flexible, unit-driven command than Western counterparts. Virtually every famous successful Russian operation of the war was designed and executed from the ground up by the lowest echelon units themselves, like some of the various pipeline ops in Avdeevka and Kursk.

The WSJ article goes on to explain that the “Soviet system” is responsible for Ukrainian units not being given orders to retreat. What does that have to do with anything ‘Soviet’? Are they suggesting that in the US Army, any unit can retreat at will without the slightest approval from superiors? That would mark the US Army as an unprofessional and amateur force. These people know literally nothing about military history or science; it is simply embarrassing. The oversimplification of what represents a “top-down” system versus its alternative needs to stop, because there is no military on earth that operates so close to one extreme or the other as caricatured here.

This excerpt is exemplary:

During Ukraine’s failed 2023 counteroffensive in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, generals from higher-level headquarters were shouting over the radio at brigade commanders, and even at sergeants on the battlefield, to attack again and again, even as units’ casualties were making them incapable of combat, Pasternak said.

So, they claim the ‘Soviet system’ caused the generals to bark attack orders at individual unit commanders. Yet, hilariously, we learned that it was American generals blindly barking catastrophically inept attack orders at Zaluzhny and co. during these operations.

Recall New York Times’ seminal piece:

The Partnership: The Secret History of the War in Ukraine

This is the untold story of America’s hidden role in Ukrainian military operations against Russia’s invading armies.


Which had revelations like the following:

In late autumn 2022 in Wiesbaden, General Christopher T. Donahue questioned Zaluzhny's deputy, General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, on advancing through Russian trenches toward Melitopol, saying, “They’re digging in, guys. How are you going to get across this?”

And this:

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The article is rife with examples of US generals Donahue, Cavoli, and Milley ordering Zaluzhny around, forcing Ukrainian units to disastrously advance into traps, where they were destroyed. Is this the ‘Soviet’ system? One wonders how those cunning Americans mastered this ‘Soviet’ style so well!

As you can see, the argument is total sophistic nonsense. US and NATO’s top generals were in fact utilizing the ‘Soviet’ system at every step, while Russia actually utilizes true “mission command”. It’s lucky for Russia that Western analysts are too stupid to understand this.

In reality, the comparison to 2022’s “nimble” Ukrainian army has nothing to do with these nonsensical platitudes, but is simply a consequence of all the most motivated and trained Ukrainian units having been attritioned off: you can’t have a “nimble” army staffed with forcibly mobilized old men with zero motivation to fight; these are only fit to sit in trenches and soak up UMPKs.



Some last items:

Another NYT piece details a new Russian strike—which is actually the second in the past two weeks—that wiped out a Ukrainian troop concentration:

Image
https://archive.ph/8MNE2

This one happened to have a bunch of foreign mercenaries who were ‘innocently’ trying to enjoy their picnic.

At least a dozen foreign volunteers in Ukraine’s military were killed late last month when a Russian missile struck a training camp’s mess hall during lunchtime, in one of the deadliest attacks on foreign fighters of the war, according to soldiers with knowledge of the incident.

Three soldiers, including one who witnessed the strike, described a harrowing assault that hit fresh recruits from the United States, Colombia, Taiwan, Denmark and other places.

The missile attack on the training camp, which took place near the central Ukrainian city of Kropyvnytskyi on July 21, was timed for when recruits sat down at picnic tables for lunch, the soldiers said.





Those new anti-drone interceptors being adopted by Russia, like the Yolka increasingly seen this year, have now been experimentally adapted onto Mig-29 planes: (Video at link.)

Experiment on integrating a interceptor drone onto the MiG-29SMT fighter of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

The "Archangel" project claims that the communication problem was solved "radically" – the drone operator was allegedly trained to pilot the aircraft.

At the same time, the drone itself is carelessly attached with plastic ties directly to the sensor of the radar warning system. How this is supposed to be launched in reality, and then controlled (or guided to a target) – is completely unclear.

Nevertheless, the idea of using cheaper means to intercept kamikaze drones, compared to conventional air-to-air missiles, is a step in the right direction.

Military Informer




The same Arkhangel team has another video on new variants of this drone: (Video at link.)



Speaking of drones, a new report on Russian Lancets which reveals how they are using terminal AI-guidance to strike targets: (Video at link.)



A Ukrainian report shows the net tunnels going up on the Pokrovsk, Dobropillya, and Konstantinovka fronts, precisely where Russian forces are now breaking through: (Video at link.)

These are likely some of those last remaining main supply routes between the embattled towns.



Russians are more widely utilizing the Chinese-sourced anti-drone lasers on the front, which are reportedly frying enemy drones at 2.5km+ distance:
(Video at link.)

Preliminarily, it is about the Silent Hunter (LASS) air defense system, which has been put into service.

The effective range is about 3 km.

The footage shows a laser beam burning through an enemy long-range drone, which then falls and explodes.




Azov National Guard head Bogdan Krotevych says there is no infantry at all in Pokrovsk, the entire front is held by drones: (Video at link.)

“We ran out of people.”

Yes, but keep believing those Western casualty figures.

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https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... eakthrough

******

Dobropillia urgent update

HIV-ridden reinforcements. No trenches for the next 80km? Encirclements at Dobropillia, Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk. Azov civil war. 'Rubicon' straining logistics.

Events in Ukraine
Aug 14, 2025

I thought about taking a look at Ukrainian reactions to tomorrow’s talks in Alaska. But what does their opinion matter anyway? Events on the frontline are a great deal more important.

As the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015 showed, ongoing military operations are the real decisive factor in negotiations. Ukraine agreed to Minsk I (2014) because its troops had been surrounded at the Donbass town of Ilovaisk, and agreed to sign Minsk II (2015) because its troops had been surrounded at Debaltsevo.

Drone warfare and the low number of infantry at the frontlines makes it unlikely to see a repeat of Ilovaisk or Debaltsevo, where hundreds of Ukrainian troops were surrounded and slaughtered. However, Ukrainian high command seems to enjoy playing with fate.

Image

Today, we’ll take a look at the latest events from the past two days on this crucial section of the frontline. We’ll see how Ukrainian frontline troops blame their own infantry deficiencies as well as the drone and reconnaissance prowess of the Russians. Hardly the ‘human wave meat assaults’ western media loves speaking of. Instead, Russia has been advancing through a combination of artillery, aerial bombing, trained infantry, and its elite ‘Rubicon’ drone team.

We’ll also probe the million dollar question - just how much Ukrainian defensive fortifications exist? The Russian breakthrough around Dobropillia doesn’t seem to have fully extended beyond Ukrainian defensive lines, but it appears to have come close. As we’ll see, Ukrainian military sources claim that just a few kilometers to the west of the latest Russian breakthrough, there are no Ukrainian defenses for almost 100 kilometers. Are Russian troops close to their ultimate goal - entering ‘operational space’?

And what are the chances for the Ukrainians in pushing the Russian advance back? Ukraine’s main OSINT project DeepState hasn’t updated its map for the past two days, but the military bloggers I collected today have not reported any Ukrainian advances - quite the opposite.

Furthermore, there are reasons to doubt whether the ‘elite’ 1st Azov Corps of the National Guard, sent to save the situation a few days back, has what it takes. Representatives of the 3rd Army Corps, fellow neo-nazis but violent enemies of the 1st National Guard Corps, are skeptical. In the words of Maksym Zhorin, a Major in the 3rd Army Corps:

And the possible consequences aren’t just the loss of Pokrovsk but also enemy control over the rest of Donetsk Oblast. In other words, a total fucking disaster.

We’ll also take a look at a number of interesting updates from the 79th Airborne Brigade, another unit sent to save the Dobropillia sector. They’ve been complaining that the situation has interrupted their long-awaited rest from the frontline - particularly necessary due to the prevalence of HIV in their ranks.

Finally, we’ll examine the deeper reasons behind the Ukrainian collapse in the sector. The failure of the much-hyped Corps reform in transforming the army’s organizational structure and lies by commanders on the ground are to blame. To quote the 79th in a post from today (August 14):

I honestly have no fucking idea who to believe anymore — everyone keeps bullshitting one way, then another. What the hell is going on?

And a final teaser from Mannerheims Son:

Our defense forces would do well to take a breather, hydrate, and establish themselves on some adequate line with proper echeloning and flank protection. They should also implement active patrolling of the near rear areas, rather than standing mixed with the enemy and launching assaults in all directions.

A riddle from Jacque Fresco: if you don’t have enough personnel, maybe you shouldn’t use the ones you do have completely ineffectively?


The latest: Dobropillia
The telegram Eastern Forepost wrote of crippled logistics in the Dobropillia area on August 13:

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To understand the scale of the failure: Russian sabotage-reconnaissance groups have been recorded in the settlements of Petrivka and Novovodyane, which effectively means that the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk logistical route has been rendered, at least temporarily, unusable for logistics (highlighted in green).
This route is the only bypass road that connected the left flank of the Donetsk front (Sloviansk–Kramatorsk) with the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad direction.


(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... ent-update

******

"The Ukrainian Soldier ... is just not there."

During the last week Russian forces managed to breach into the rear of the Ukrainian defense line:

During the last three days Russian forces achieved a major breakthrough. After the heavy bombardment of Ukrainian positions with over 1,300 FAB bombs Russian detachments moved north of the salient (green) they had built between the semi-encircled cities Pokrovsk and Konstantinivka.

They have reached and breached the well built second Donbas fortification line (in yellow) which had been dug over the last year.

Image

The Ukrainian supply line along the T-05-14 road between Dobropilla and Kramatorsk has been cut. Beyond that line is open space.
...
Prepared ditches and other positions are no longer manned. Russian troops can infiltrate through the thinly manned lines. Ukrainian drone units, which are supposed to cover the holes in the frontline, are getting suppressed by Russian bombing and counter drone forces. Confusion sets in once Russian diversion teams appear in the rear.

The Ukrainian army has ordered parts of its 'elite' Azov forces from Izyum in the north towards the Pokrovsk area to counter the Russian breakthrough. They will be too little too late to make a difference.


At least six brigades of Ukrainian forces were pulled from other parts of the front in an attempt to check the Russian breach of the line. Some were ambushed while on the way others while taking up their new positions. Theose who arrived did not manage to change the map.

Pulling these forces from other parts of the frontline will leave holes in those parts for Russian forces to further attack through. The breakthrough will thus be repeated elsewhere. This process can be repeated and repeated until the whole Ukrainian defense breaks down and the army retreats in panic.

Only a few of the western defense analysts have seen this coming. One is Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting. He has good relation with many Ukrainian officers and has regularly visited units at the frontline.

Below are excerpts from a long interview with him that was published yesterday in Rzeczpospolita, the Polish 'paper of record'.

Ukraine lacks troops, not equipment

Excerpts (machine translated, edited for clarity):

You recently returned from another visit to Ukraine. What is the current situation at the front?

The Russians continue to maintain the strategic initiative along the entire length of the front. Apart from very local counterattacks, the Ukrainians are retreating. The Russian Federation forces are very strongly advancing on several axes, especially in the area of the Battles of Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, the village of Novosilka, and recently in Zaporozhia, that is, in the deep south.

It is worrying that Russia's territorial gains, especially in July, were quite significant and larger than in previous months. The Russians have advanced 10-12 km along several axes. This is something we haven't seen before. If there were any territorial conquests before, they were concentrated around one area. Now we have several areas where the front is starting to leak.
...
What to expect in the coming weeks?

I assume that in the future, the Russians will slowly bleed the Ukrainians to open the front and further accelerate the march to the west and north towards Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. At the moment, our main scenario is that what the Russian troops are doing now will not change.
...
How many Russians are there now?

Some 650 thousand, of which some 40 thousand have arrived since January. The Russians are able to recover losses very quickly. The withdrawal of a company or battalion that has suffered losses of several tens of percent, and the restoration of its personnel takes a maximum of two weeks.
...
What are the main problems on the Ukrainian side?

[...] when it comes to the Ukrainian soldier, the biggest problem is that he's just... not there. And this is due to the fact that the scale of desertion and abandonment of units without consent is very high. This creates a dangerous situation: if you take into account the loss of soldiers on the front line, desertion and abandonment of units without consent, the number of soldiers on the Ukrainian side decreases month after month. Although officially the Ukrainians mobilize 20-30 thousand people every month, most of them do not get to the front line.

This is a very big structural problem that has remained unresolved for a long time, and there is no indication that it will change soon. Other issues include the quality of command, the personal equipment these soldiers receive, the characteristics of Ukrainian commanders-in-chief, and the phase of the war.

In what sense?

The situation is quite different with an army, when the army is winning and there is a greater chance, or at least hope, that the war will soon end, than with an army whose morale is running out for days and which is retreating every day or week under the onslaught of Russian troops. This can probably also be translated to the other side. Russians are more likely to enlist in the military because they expect this war to eventually end because the Russian army is winning. ...
...
What else is visible at the front?
...
Over the past year, the Ukrainians have defended their positions using drones, artillery and infantry. However, there are currently so many Russian drones that Ukrainian units often refuse to use artillery, since unmanned vehicles are constantly circulating in the area of its deployment. In areas of the front where artillery nevertheless opens fire, a response in the form of Russian counter-battery fire occurs within one to two minutes, and over the next few minutes swarms of unmanned aerial vehicles appear in the area, which track and destroy the detected guns.

In addition, the Russians conduct extremely effective counter-drone actions, focusing on the fight against both Ukrainian intelligence and strike drones. Since most of the Ukrainian logistics currently relies on unmanned aerial vehicles, their systematic elimination is a serious problem. At the battalion level 70-80% of logistics efforts go to the supply of UAV units, and only 20-30 percent to support the infantry. Preserving the capabilities of UAVs is a higher priority for Ukrainians than ensuring the actions of linear units.
...
Where will this war be in six months?

This, of course, is very difficult to predict. Our baseline scenario assumes that the previous pattern of actions will continue, but we observe that the front is beginning to gradually "leak". The Russians have imposed a war of attrition on Ukraine, and Kiev decided to take up the challenge, which at some point could lead to a sharp acceleration of events. Perhaps we are now entering the first stage. It remains an open question whether the crash will occur or whether the Ukrainians will decide to move additional strategic reserves and specialized drone units to stop the Russian flow of unmanned aerial vehicles. The Ukrainian Command of unmanned Systems appears to be closely studying the actions of the Russians, and in the coming weeks and months, it will prioritize the destruction of Rubicon drone units and other Russian unmanned formations.
[...]
As for the implementation of a strategic operation, the purpose of which would be to reverse the negative trend that the Ukrainians have been in for two years, there is currently no chance. The Ukrainians are too short of troops. Although, given the character and personality of General Sirsky, I would not be at all surprised if limited offensive operations were undertaken.

Could more help by the West make a difference here?

In my opinion, no. The fundamental problems faced by Ukrainians are Ukrainian problems. This applies to: the quality of command, the number of soldiers on the front line, the methods of using forces, both manpower and drones. etc. [..] The transfer of hundreds more ATACMS missiles to the Ukrainians would not change the nature of this war. After all, to recapture a town, you need infantry, supported by drones and artillery. And the Ukrainians are short of infantry, artillery is effectively defeated - Western equipment is not a panacea for all the problems of Ukraine. The main problems that Ukraine faces must be solved by the government in Kiev, and not by Western states.


As the Ukrainian forces lack the ability to launch a meaningful counterattack their best chance to prevent a further rapid loss of personnel and capabilities is to radically shorten the frontline.

A retreat of some 20 kilometers from the current lines, giving up on semi-encircled cities and moving behind natural barriers could nearly half the length of the front that has to be covered. It would double the density of its defenses.

While such a move would be unlikely to change the long term perspective of the war it would enable Ukraine to hold out longer.

Posted by b on August 15, 2025 at 14:27 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/08/t ... .html#more

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Attacks on logistics
August 15, 2025
Rybar

Image

" The enemy has stepped up attacks on Russian railway infrastructure "

In parallel with massive raids on the rear regions, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are striking at Russia's railway infrastructure. Since mid-July, they have attacked about a dozen and a half objects in the south of the country, trying to paralyze railway communication.

Where did the main blow fall?
Several dozen drones were launched at sites in the Krasnodar Region , Volgograd and Rostov Regions . According to official data, about 250 trains were delayed over the month as a result of UAV attacks on tracks, stations and traction substations .

The enemy achieved the greatest economic effect as a result of strikes on the Likhaya and Kamenolomny stations in the Rostov region - they accounted for two thirds of all rolling stock delays. Due to damage to tracks and power lines, traffic in these areas was stopped for about a day. In other cases, the elimination of the consequences took no more than a few hours.

Traction substations were also hit by enemy drones, one of which was attacked twice. However, much greater damage was inflicted on the facilities that control train traffic.

Despite the economic damage, the raids did not lead to the paralysis of railway communication. The reason is that the limited supply of weapons of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with an incomparably large number of objects of interest to them forces the enemy to "scatter" their forces.

It is curious that Russian troops encountered a similar problem back in 2022 when they tried to disable Ukrainian traction substations: there were far fewer Kalibrs and Kh-101s than the total number of targets, and they were unable to destroy all the objects.

At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces have recently also been attacking enemy railway infrastructure. Given that the Kiev regime is completely economically dependent on external aid and has limited recovery capabilities, Russian raids on traction substations and depots are likely to cause even greater specific damage.

https://rybar.ru/udary-po-logistike/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Aug 17, 2025 12:37 pm

Consequences of the Alaska summit
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 08/17/2025

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A day of reactions to the Alaska meeting, to the images it left behind, and to its implications, the various actors tried to adapt yesterday to the new situation created by Donald Trump's new change of position, which was observed on Friday night and confirmed on Saturday in his call to European partners and his post on social media. Russia had arrived at the meeting in a position that was assumed to be vulnerable, especially after the United States' apparent adoption of European postulates and red lines. Donald Trump adhered, at least judging by what has transpired from the meeting, to the idea of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine," although not necessarily "nothing about Europe without Europe." This is suggested by Vladimir Putin's comment in the appearance alongside his American counterpart, in which the Russian president referred to an "understanding" with the White House—and not an agreement, as several media outlets erroneously translated, causing significant confusion—and warned European countries against attempting to sabotage or manipulate the terms.

It's not difficult to see in this statement a reminder of the Minsk process, in which both France and Germany protected Ukraine so it could afford not to comply with the terms it had signed. Despite this supposed understanding, the absence of questions at the press conference, the brief intervention of the American leader, and his lack of enthusiasm reflected what Trump confirmed in his subsequent interview with Sean Hannity, a sympathetic journalist who gave him the opportunity to present his message. According to Trump, an agreement with Russia is close, although there are some issues, especially one that the president did not specify but that is easy to deduce—security—that have not yet been reached.

On the European continent, editorials and opinion pieces reflected disappointment in both the substance and the manner in which the Alaska summit was held. “Once again, Trump threatens but doesn't deliver. When the opponent is stronger, of course. If they're weaker, then he puffs out his chest and becomes a force to be reckoned with. Just compare the more than deferential treatment of Putin at the Anchorage summit with the shameful and humiliating ambush he organized for Zelensky at the White House. Red carpet, flyover, applause and smiles, a shared seat in the presidential armored limousine, and not a single rebuke for the dictator, who faces an international arrest warrant for war crimes and who has once again rejected the essential ceasefire prior to balanced peace negotiations,” wrote Lluis Bassets in El País, an example of the tone taken yesterday by the European press, which focused only on the most negative aspects and failed to note, for example, that the planned lunch between the delegations didn't take place or that Trump made it clear that there will be no economic agreements with Russia until a ceasefire is reached.

Throughout yesterday, analysts, leaders, and lobbyists tried to analyze every gesture and every word to reach the conclusion that neither the most negative scenario, that of the announcement of a firm agreement between two superpowers, nor the one desired by kyiv and its European allies, that of the application of the ultimatum to Russia, had occurred. However, positions softened over the hours toward much more pessimistic positions following Donald Trump's post on his personal social media platform. "Everyone decided that the best way to end the terrible war between Russia and Ukraine is to directly reach a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a simple Ceasefire Agreement, which often does not hold up. President Zelensky will come to Washington, DC, to the Oval Office on Monday afternoon. If all goes well, we will schedule a meeting with President Putin. Potentially, millions of lives will be saved," he wrote.

At the meeting, Russia failed to secure, if that was its objective, an agreement from the White House to accept its conditions for ending the war, but it may have achieved something more important, something that has greatly worried Kiev's European allies. The nervousness caused by Vladimir Putin's mention of the "root causes" of the war—a comment interpreted by media outlets such as the BBC as a rejection of Ukraine's existence and a Russian desire to end the Ukrainian state, despite actually referring to NATO expansion and the policies implemented since the victory at Maidan—was compounded in the afternoon by information about the "complicated call" with European partners, who found themselves once again in the same situation as a week ago. Confident that last week's collective conference call had made Trump understand the need for a ceasefire as a prerequisite for future negotiations, the Russian president was able to give his American counterpart arguments to believe that a truce is not enough and a definitive agreement is necessary. What Trump may not understand is that this option, which would involve a binding document much more difficult to breach or manipulate, is the most detrimental for European countries, second only to a direct agreement between Russia and the United States. That option would mean, for continental capitals, the strategic defeat of the way they have approached war as a way to transform the European security structure to their advantage.

“We are clear that Ukraine must have unwavering security guarantees to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. We welcome President Trump's statement that the United States is ready to offer security guarantees. The Coalition of the Willing is ready to play an active role. No limitations should be imposed on Ukraine's armed forces or its cooperation with third countries. Russia cannot veto Ukraine's path to the EU and NATO,” stated the most relevant part of the European Commission's statement, which, contrary to all realism, insists on Ukraine's territorial integrity, a goal that has proven impossible, and on Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic path, one of the root causes of the current war. Without the slightest ability to present a political path to end the war and with no proposals other than the eternal continuation of arms supplies to Ukraine until the final defeat of the Russian Federation, European countries persist in the same recipe that has failed for three years.

“After meeting with the Russian president, President Trump told European leaders that he now favors ceding unoccupied Ukrainian territory to Russia to end the fighting, a concession Ukraine has long opposed. This breaks with a strategy that Trump, his European allies, and Zelensky had agreed upon before the U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska,” The New York Times lamented yesterday . Without any certainty, the New York Times, like most of the Western press, assumes that Donald Trump has once again abandoned his pro-Ukrainian stance to adopt a pro-Russian one and has adopted Moscow's postulates as his own—at least until Zelensky convinces him otherwise on Monday. As with the Ukrainian counterproposal, the same ideas have been repeated throughout this war, both at times when Ukraine was on the attack and when it was struggling to maintain its defense. There is nothing new in the Russian proposal. As already known from the leaks following the meeting with Witkoff, Russia proposes freezing the front in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, admitting that it will not capture all of these Ukrainian regions, returning the territories of Sumi and Kharkiv, and demanding that Ukraine hand over the part of Donetsk currently under its control. As with Istanbul in 2022, Moscow is also demanding linguistic rights and religious freedom for the Ukrainian population whose language, culture, or religion is Russian, and the withdrawal from NATO membership with the consolidation of neutrality.

The position of European countries, which after the Witkoff meeting believed they heard from the US president that Russia was willing to withdraw from Kherson and Zaporozhye, but demanded to receive all of Donbass, is fraught with a curious paradox. Much less concerned about the fate of Donetsk, European capitals are willing to offer security guarantees to Ukraine, something Russia offered and Western countries denied in 2022, and demand a Russian withdrawal from those regions beyond Donbass. In other words, Brussels, London, Paris, and Berlin are demanding something very similar to what Moscow believed it had agreed with Ukraine in Istanbul in April 2022, before much of the death and destruction of the war had occurred—a proposal they considered unacceptable at the time and which led to their commitment to war as the only possible path to resolving the conflict.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/17/conse ... de-alaska/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
European and British supporters of the conflict are in a panic (c) Kirill Dmitriev

1. It is obvious that the unspoken part of the agreements between Trump and Putin is Trump's informal obligation to bend the European satellites and Ukrainian puppets to the partially agreed conditions, so that they figuratively "eat shit" and smack their lips and thank Trump for it, as the Europeans recently did, agreeing to almost all of Trump's demands.

2. If Trump bends them in the coming days and makes them agree to what was agreed upon with Putin, then a new meeting between Trump and Putin is possible in the coming weeks. And even some kind of general summit, where everything will be formally approved. If Trump cannot push through all of this, this will simply show that he cannot force the figures dependent on him to fulfill their obligations, and therefore agreements with him do not make much sense, since he cannot guarantee them. In this case, the Russian Federation will simply continue to achieve its goals by military means without focusing on agreements with the United States, since the situation at the front allows it to speak from a position of strength.

3. Naturally, Europe will seek to torpedo the separate agreements between Trump and Putin. Therefore, as a burden to the cocaine Fuhrer, one of the overseers, who is now being frantically selected, will be sent to Washington.
Europe obviously does not want the war to end and will not stop it of its own free will. Trump must force it to do this. Will he succeed - we will see next week.

P.S. In the end, they decided to send the whole gang so that the cocaine Fuhrer does not jump off.

***

Colonelcassad
On the fight against small radars

Why is it important to knock them out first

Many have wondered why there are fewer videos of strikes on airfields and air defense systems in the enemy rear? The answer is simple - since last year, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been actively shooting down our reconnaissance "wings" with fighter drones, and it is no longer possible to fly there freely.

The enemy manages to effectively ensure interception by using air target detection stations (ATS). It would seem that this is a priority target for destruction, but for some reason there is still no systematic fight against them.

An excellent example is given by Max Kaskad and NVG: eight small radars can stand for months (!) in one (!!) 200-meter landing at a distance of 30 km, but they are in no hurry to knock them out. The result is the loss of expensive reconnaissance UAVs, there is nothing to look at the enemy's near rear, the task of isolating the LBS has failed. The

surreal thing is that the Russian Armed Forces have enough means of destroying such targets today. In the end, a lot of Geraniums are being made now, and sending them to SIGINT detection sites is quite acceptable: they can hit training grounds and strongpoints, so why would launching them at radars be any worse?

What will happen in the event of a systematic destruction of Ukrainian stations like RPS-42 and similar ones? It will become easier for our Superkamas, Z-16s and Lancets to fly, and Patriots and Haimars will once again be hit point-by-point on record.

@rybar

***

Colonelcassad
Kyiv's European allies will convince Volodymyr Zelensky that they will provide support if Ukraine decides to continue military actions, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on TVN24.

"We will tell Zelensky that we will do what we have done so far: supply weapons, support and ensure a path to EU membership. Ukraine itself must decide whether it wants to continue the fight," Sikorski said.

***

Colonelcassad
Documents allegedly from the US State Department on the meeting between Putin and Trump were found in a hotel in Anchorage, NPR reports.

They contain a tentative schedule of the summit and the composition of the Russian and US delegations, seating arrangements for the planned dinner "in honor of His Excellency Vladimir Putin," and a menu.

Photos with the tentative menu were posted by all the reporters present during the negotiations, and lists of how the delegation members would be seated, where the regalia of the officials were indicated, were also no secret.
In Ukraine, naturally, a "betrayal" was declared and there were burning butts from such news, there they had not yet moved away from the Red Carpet and mutual statements, and then this.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – August 16th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Aug 16, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "Units of the "West" Group have liberated the settlement of Kolodezi in the Donetsk People's Republic following active combat operations."

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ЛБС 20.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 20th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

In our August 6th summary, we provided a detailed analysis of the operational situation and likely developments along the Oskol sector of the Izyum axis. The most probable course of combat operations here involves an advance toward Rubtsy. However, for successful offensive operations along this line, the Russian Armed Forces must secure their left flank against threats from Ukrainian forces in the Shandrigolovo-Liman stronghold area and eliminate the group of fortified positions at Kolodezi-Stavki-Zarechnoe, which provide forward cover for this sector. The liberation of Kolodezi village represents the first step in accomplishing this objective.

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ЛБС 01.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 1st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.*

The village of Kolodezi (49°05′12″N 37°53′12″E, approx. 300 residents) is located along the Terny-Drobyshevo road. As a Ukrainian defensive stronghold, it covers the Stavki area and the left flank of the Zarechnoe fortified position, which has also been under sustained pressure over the past three days.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "As a result of decisive and well-executed offensive operations by the 5th Guards Tank Brigade of the 36th Army ("East" Group), the settlement of Voronoe has been liberated.”

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ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.02.2025=Line of Combat Contact February 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.3.2025=Line of Combat Contact March 1st, 2025. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary. Граница областей=Oblast Border*.

The small village of Voronoe (47°55′41″N 36°32′49″E, approx. 60 residents) is situated in Dnepropetrovsk Oblast on the left bank of the Voronaya River. The Ukrainian defensive stronghold at Voronoe covered the Sosnovka transport junction, which serves as the forward position for the major Ukrainian defensive cluster at Arestopol-Velikomikhaylovka-Novoselovka. However, judging by the operational configuration, the primary objective of capturing Voronoe at this stage appears to be establishing a deep northern envelopment of the Ukrainian defensive area around Kamyshevakha while securing the right flank of Russian assault groups operating along the Shevchenko-Kamyshevakha line.

Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) Direction

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Yellow: main areas of offensive

The situation continues to develop north of the city of Krasnoarmeysk, in the area of the breakthrough ofUkrainian defenses. The fog of war hasn't cleared, but we understand that our assault groups at the forefront of these events are currently facing extremely difficult conditions.

Having assessed the gravity of the situation, the enemy has deployed all its most combat-ready units and formations from nearby areas to this sector. In their haste to relieve informational pressure, enemy sources aren't even concealing the designations of these units. It has been confirmed that the enemy has concentrated approximately eight brigades and two separate assault regiments along the Dobropolye - Torskoe (Torskoe is near the northeast corner) line. Smaller special forces units have likely also been deployed in the area.

The Russian grouping has transitioned to all-around defense in the approximate area of Rubezhnoye - Zolotoy Kolodez - Kucherov Yar, using the Zapadnaya ("Western Gully" on the map), Velikaya, and Viklechnaya ravines as natural defensive positions (these 3 ravines/gullies are surrounding Kucherov Yar).

To the east, Russian forces continue applying pressure on Shakhterskoye and the Sofiyevka defensive area with the objective of outflanking the Ukrainian grouping that is attempting to contain the Russian breakthrough.

We witness the heroism and steadfastness of our defenders. We understand that the military oath demands servicemen to honorably fulfill their duty, courageously defending the freedom, independence, and constitutional order of Russia, its people, and the Motherland. These are not empty words - they are the blood and will of our army.

By stripping already limited reserves from other sectors, the Ukrainian command has weakened adjacent frontline areas, and we will soon see the consequences of this decision.

To our warriors, we wish resilience, endurance, and victory.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ugust-16th

*****

Historic Summit: An Empty and Underwhelming PR Spectacle, But Still Good For Relations
Simplicius
Aug 16, 2025

The long-awaited Trump-Putin summit came and went in Anchorage, Alaska: (Video at link.)

The cartoonish staging of the event coordination was another Trump ‘special’, straight from the playbook of his teenage-boy fever dream, stacking warplanes like matchbox toys, and even arranging for a crude B-2 Spirit and F-35 stealth bomber flyover above Putin’s head just as he made his way down the hastily-draped runner as some kind of strongman ‘power move’ and intimidation tactic, meant to evoke the recent Iranian strikes: (Video at link.)


This type of antic stunt ages very badly—it’s gimmicky, low-impulse, and signals to the counterparty—in this case, Putin—that you care more about domestic optics than establishing an atmosphere of true rapport and cooperation; i.e. it’s more a show of bravado to the domestic audience and critics. To the rest of the world, such displays lack taste and class.

That’s not to mention that Trump clearly tried to “mog” Putin using Erdogan’s geriatric technique, but to no avail—Putin could have easily Judo-tossed him off his cankles: (Video at link.)

But let’s get to the nitty-gritty, how did the actual meeting go?

The first real indications were not good as reports came that a mutual luncheon to be held afterwards was cut short and Trump immediately flew off to DC—which rang echoes of Trump’s earlier foreboding statement that if no deal was reached he’d get out of dodge “fast” and there would be no second meeting.

By all means wait for the reporting on what was discussed or agreed or not, but... the luncheon was nixed, as was Putin's interview with Fox. A grand bargain solidified usually goes the other way. The Russians not luxuriating in the moment, as you'd expect if they got even half of what they came for. Make of that what you will.

Likewise, no press questions were fielded as Putin and Trump both gave brief boilerplate statements with no substance at all.

This had led me to initially surmise that the meeting was far more disastrous than Trump’s team attempted to portray, and pretty much went how we envisioned: Putin likely laid out the “root causes must be addressed” argument, and the Trump team had no further cards. In fact, Putin made reference to the ‘root causes’ in his subsequent press statement, so this is likely what happened.

However, in his subsequent interview with Hannity Trump said the meeting was a “10 out of 10” on his scale, and great things were achieved. He had nothing but complimentary words for Putin, calling him ‘strong and tough as hell’: (Video at link.)

But the thing is, Trump went on to give extremely evasive answers, essentially dodging the question if anything concrete was achieved:

HANNITY: You said there was one big issue you and Putin don't agree on. Are you prepared to go public with that?

TRUMP: No, I'd rather not. I guess somebody is gonna go public with it, they'll figure it out.

Hannity even invoked Trump’s own boast that he would know the “vibe” of the room within two minutes, and Trump again gave a long meandering non-answer.

So, we have the fact that planned press events were cut short, and Putin and Trump both quickly flew off after a mere two hour meeting, leaving things feeling awkwardly abrupt and inconclusive. This is likely due to the fact that nothing definitive could be announced as the two sides clearly had no common ground.

But the only hint of optimism came in the above interview excerpt where Trump implies that Zelensky and Europe have to make a tough decision on something. This could signal that the meeting went roughly as I had predicted, wherein I said that the point of the summit could be for Trump to throw Zelensky under the bus, showing the world that it is Putin who’s ready to settle and putting the onus on Zelensky and Europe.

The fact that Trump has not—at least for now—made good on his promise of immediately cutting things off with Russia and slinging out “serious consequences” seems to imply that, despite achieving nothing, Trump was bluffing and does not want to go “hard ball” against Russia, and seemingly prefers to shift the ‘ball’ into Ukraine’s court instead.

All in all I still think the meeting was a great step in US-Russian relations for many other reasons apart from Ukraine. The simple fact of open dialogue and slow-building bonhomie is well worth it after an era of no dialogue and open hostility under the likes of Biden and Obama.

We can only assume where things left off is that Trump now knows first hand precisely what Russia’s immutable demands are, and he needs to find a way to somehow package them into an acceptable form for Ukraine and Europe. The problem is, this is impossible, so for now Trump is stuck playing evasion games and hoping to buy time until the situation on the ground is more amenable, i.e. Zelensky gets desperate, or is altogether ousted.

But we’ll have to wait and see what future statements bring, as the Russian side has yet to make any definitive statements of their own about the meeting.

Lastly, for those of you who voted in the recent poll that Trump would ‘kick the can down the road’, using the meeting as a way to save himself from his own self-imposed ‘sanctions’ trap, it seems you were right. Asked about whether he would still sanction Russia, Trump replied: “Well, because the meeting went so well, we don’t have to think about that now.” (Video at link.)




For now a quick frontline update:

After bringing in several ‘elite’ brigades, Ukraine has begun fiercely counterattacking Russian forces in the extended salient north of Pokrovsk—the infamous ‘bunny ears’ of the breakthrough.

There are a few advanced positions Ukraine has retaken at the very tip of the ears where Russian logistics would have been the most sparse.

"The 93rd Cold Yar Brigade cleared and took control of the villages of Hruzke and Vesele near Dobropillia, where a recent breakthrough by the Russians occurred."

The Ukrainian 93rd showed a video of a UGV robotic platform assaulting Russian positions in Vesele, where they claimed to have neutralized and captured several Russian troops: (Video at link.)

The geolocation is as follows:

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93rd Mech Brigade Vesele, Donetsk Ukrainian UGV with a gun shoots at a house (0:15) 48.542753, 37.270097

Which puts it precisely here at the small red circle below:

[https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_ ... 04x792.png[/img]

So, the AFU pushed the very leading edge of the Russian breakthrough back a tad, and are hailing this as a great success. The problem is, as explained last time, these AFU units were pulled from other fronts which immediately began to collapse as consequence of this.

For instance, a major collapse in the Kupyansk area occurred today, with Ukrainian units withdrawing from this large swath of land around Petropavlovka, east of Kupyansk:

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South of there, more territory was taken on the old Kreminna front, north of the Serebriansky forest:

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As can be seen, more territory was taken south of Torske, which itself was just captured two days ago, as well as further advances into neighboring Zarichne above.

Meanwhile, on the Mirnograd front next to Pokrovsk, Russian forces were geolocated via a Ukrainian sniper video to have taken positions in this industrial sector on the T-0504 road:

Image

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Which would be under the red circle:

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A word about Pokrovsk:

Pokrovsk. They write that our assault infantry uses the "Ninja Turtles" tactic. During the day, the soldiers hide in the sewers under the city, in the trees, in the basements, and under the hoods of cars, and only come out at night to attack the enemy.

The enemy is confused and cannot seize the initiative, as they do not know the real number of our assault groups and their location. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have only one road to retreat from the city, the M-3 highway through the village of Grishino. The other roads are controlled by FPV units of the Russian army.


An example of a Russian FAB barrage hitting Ukrainian positions in the breakthrough area north of Pokrovsk:

FABs from UMPK in the Shakhovo area, north of Pokrovsk, on the front line of our offensive (Video at link.)


But those weren’t even the biggest advances of the day. That honor goes to the total capture of Iskra and Aleksandrograd, southwest of Pokrovsk, on the old Velyka Novosilka sector:

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As a result of decisive and skillful offensive actions by the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army of the "Vostok" troop group, the settlement of Aleksandrograd in the DPR has been liberated!!!

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As can be seen, the war rolls on irrespective of political pageantry. The vast irreconcilable differences rooted in the war’s origins can only be solved kinetically.



A couple last items:

Current Russian ambassador to the US Alexander Darchiev told Zarubin that there is no major breakthrough, but that the two sides are “trying”:

Russian Ambassador to the USA Darchiev, in an interview with Russia 1 journalist Pavel Zarubin, responded to a question about progress in negotiations: "We are trying, but there are no major breakthroughs yet."

According to him, for normalization, the USA must return the confiscated Russian diplomatic property.
(Video at link.)



Some more behind the scenes photos taken of Putin and Trump’s cordial interaction “off-camera”:

Image


As always, on his official White House page Trump had to post the most ego-boosting one, depicting himself as a tough guy jabbing his finger in Putin’s chest:

Image


Lastly, in a rare moment at the end of the presser Putin invited Trump to Moscow in English: (Video at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/his ... erwhelming

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Russians Break Through Ukrainian Line Near Strategic City Pokrovsk
August 14, 2025 natyliesb
By Andrew Day, The American Conservative, 8/12/25

Russian forces in recent days punched through Ukraine’s defensive line near its key stronghold Pokrovsk, a city in the eastern Donetsk province, according to news reports on Tuesday.

The breakthrough—Russia’s biggest in many months—comes ahead of a Friday summit in Alaska between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The timing suggests Moscow is pushing for battlefield gains to enhance its bargaining position in peace talks. Putin has demanded that Kiev cede the entire Donetsk province, including parts that Ukraine still controls.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Monday evening that Russia was “redeploying their troops and forces in ways that suggest preparations for new offensive operations.”

Russian troops now nearly surround Pokrovsk, which had served as a logistics hub for Ukrainian troops. Kiev may need to order a withdrawal from the semi-encircled swath of territory or risk exposing its forces there to capture or bombardment.

***

Alaskan Waste

By Oliver Boyd-Barrett, Substack, 8/13/25

Battlefield

Russian activity in Ukraine has been intense in the lead-up to Friday’s scheduled meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Alaska, centering most in and around Pokrovsk. Russian sabotage and reconnaissance forces are attacking the south of the city in what may be artillery preparation for a major offensive, and have already penetrated to its center.

To the immediate north of the city Russia has secured Sukhetske and is extending west towards Novooltksandrivka and Shevchenko, while further north still it is extending via Zatyshok and Zapovidne into Novo Shakove, Zolotyi Kolodiaz, Shakove and Kucheriv Yar.

From Pokrovsk, northwest to Novekonomichne, Russia is forming a cauldron centered on Balchan. To the west of Novekonomichne, Russia is battling to take Rodynske (it is reported to have secured 60% of the settlement), which lies to the south west of Fedorivke and Rezine) and battling southwards to Myrnohrad, close enough to the northeast of Pokrovsk to be considered a suburb.

Although Russia has reportedly taken 150-200 square kilometers in the past 24 to 48 hours, further westward advances from Pokrovsk may be awaiting the arrival of units of the main Russian army, particularly in view of unresolved issues that lie to the east of Pokrovsk, northeast of Maisk, around Volodymyrivka and Shakove, Toretske and Solivka – all lying southwest from another targetted settlement, Kostiantynivka (west of Chasiv Yar, now in Russian Hands).

A Ukrainian Azov-led counter-offensive is expected in this area starting from Ivanopillia (north of Russian-held Toretsk) towards Solivka and on down to Russian-held Fedorivka. Anticipating and heading off this move, Russian forces need to progress towards Toretske and Solivka but must first complete their struggle for Kucheriv Yar. Russian forces may also move up towards Solivka from Rusyn Yar.

Southwest of Pokrovsk, Russian forces have taken 60% of Udachne and are moving towards Novoserhaivka and Novomykolaivka in a possible bid to cut the M30 supply route to Pokrovsk.

Preparing to move on Kostiantynivka to the north east of Pokrovsk, Russian forces are attacking Plebsn Byk from Russisn-held Katerynivka. East of Kostiantynivka, Russia has taken full control of Stupechky and Pyredechyne.

Russian forces have taken the Southern Torkse Forest east of Lyman and are bombing Siversk.

Alaska

There is intense chatter as to the potential outcomes of Friday’s Presidential meeting. I maintain my judgment that the meeting is ill-advised, is dangerous as well as largely pointless for Putin to attend, and has been very poorly prepared. I note Larry Johnson’s coverage in his Sonar21 report yesterday of a story of a potential assassination plot, and although he himself is skeptical as to its veracity, it demonstrates the absurd ease with which potential assassins, professional or amateur, may disrupt the summit.

Trump’s anticipatory statements and positions veer wildly from day to day. Yesterday’s phone conversation between European leaders, Zelenskiy and Trump have confirmed that Europe supports Zelenskiy’s completely obstructionist mode that, in turn, will likely reduce the possibility of anything close to a meaningful concession from Trump to Putin, while Putin will find it extremely difficult to move away from his terms laid out in June 2024, perhaps only to the extent of offering to withdraw Russian troops from his ““buffer zone” in Kharkiv and Sumy in return for a concession from Ukraine – which seems very unlikely to be offered – to withdraw its troops from those parts of Kherson and Zapporizhzhia in which Ukraine still maintains a military presence (and which Russia is otherwise almost guaranteed to take in the very near future in any case).

Does Russia have good reasons to participate in this summit? One can think of reasons, but none of them are convincing. Perhaps Putin wants to prepare Trump for the post-conflict scenarios that may unfold if and when the Ukrainian army collapses and Russia moves to the Dnieper or even further west. Is Putin concerned to make sure that Russian territorial acquisitions will be internationally recognized? Perhaps. Trump recognizing them will not guarantee or even incentivize European or UN recognition. Does Putin want to talk about arms control? Fat chance he will find an enthusiastic listener in Trump who is in charge of the most aggressive military-industrial (MICIMATT) incubus the earth has ever seen and whose profits sustain the US corporate-plutocratic ruling tyranny and who would love to encourage a nice, deceptive Russian “pause” to its currently accelerating growth in military capability. Does Putin want to talk about joint exploitation in the Arctic? Then he should first be talking to his friends in the BRICS and to those allies who will be most central to the construction of BRICS-friendly south-north trading routes at the very same time as Trump is attempting to sabotage Russian and Chinese interests in west-east trading routes from the always malevolent influence of Turkey through the south Caucasus, with a view to disrupting Russian-Iranian transportation route and destabilizing Iran’s Azeri northwest.

***

With Desertions, Low Recruitment, Ukraine’s Infantry Crisis Deepens

By Yauhen Lehalau, RFE/RL, 8/10/25

As Russia presses its offensive, Ukraine faces a crisis that experts say is as critical as its shortages of ammunition and weapons: a dwindling supply of infantry.

“Drivers, artillerymen, and cooks” are holding the line, says Bohdan Krotevich, an officer formerly with the Azov Brigade’s headquarters. “A maximum of 12 fighters hold sections 5-10 kilometers wide.”

The lack of manpower is allowing Russia to employ what Ukraine’s commander in chief, Oleksandr Syrskiy, recently called “total infiltration” tactics. Small infantry groups make it through Ukrainian lines — including into Pokrovsk, the key city in the Donetsk region that is likely the main target of Russia’s current offensive.

One of the brigades responsible for defending the area had “run out of infantry,” according to Ukrainian conflict-monitoring group DeepState, allowing the Russians through. A video from July, geolocated to a gas station in the southern part of the city, shows a Ukrainian transport coming under fire from one of the infiltration groups, and other units had to be sent in to attempt to clear the area.

The Manpower Gap Flips In Russia’s Favor

Early in the war, the balance was radically different. In the lead-up to the full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia’s army had about 1 million troops, with some 150,000 – 190,000 concentrated along Ukraine’s borders with Russia and Belarus.

At the time, Ukraine’s military had some 260,000 in active service, but the country mobilized up to 700,000 men by mid-summer, handing it a manpower advantage over the invading Russian forces, who had by then been expelled from the Kyiv region. Russia was forced to conduct a “partial mobilization” of about 300,000 reservists to stabilize the front line after yielding thousands of square kilometers of territory in eastern Ukraine.

In 2023, Russian recruitment picked up, introducing thousands of prison inmates to the army as well as mercenary groups like the infamous Wagner private military company and offering significant sign-up bonuses to volunteers. Ukraine, on the other hand, was struggling to find new recruits to replace losses. As analysts from the investigative group, the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) observed, this was the year that momentum shifted in Moscow’s favor, as Russia’s recruitment drive neutralized Ukraine’s manpower advantage while Kyiv faced mounting difficulties replenishing its ranks.

In 2025, according to The Military Balance, an annual assessment of military capabilities worldwide, Russia’s numbers of active-duty personnel reached over 1.13 million — with Syrskiy claiming that some 640,000 of them were on Ukrainian territory, a figure echoed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. While Ukraine’s total troop strength is officially over 1 million, the Warsaw-based Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) says not more than 300,000 of them are deployed on the front lines.

Russia Recruiting More Than Ukraine

According to the OSW, Ukraine needs to recruit some 300,000 soldiers to replenish its brigades, some of which are only at 30 percent strength. Last year, it managed 200,000, a number that “proved insufficient to maintain unit strength at an adequate level” given “the scale of desertions and personnel losses,” the OSW report says. Currently, Ukraine is estimated to recruit 17,000 to 24,000 people per month, or between 204,000 and 288,000 per year.

While it has had to increase its sign-up bonuses, Russian recruitment is estimated to have increased to a rate of about 30,000 per month –- an advantage of roughly 70-150,000 per year.

Thousands AWOL

Beyond the gap in recruitment figures, Ukraine’s army has a desertion problem, with tens of thousands of instances of soldiers going Absent Without Leave (AWOL) recorded per year. According to popular Ukrainian war correspondent Yuri Butusov, the Anne of Kyiv brigade, trained in France, had up to 1,700 soldiers go AWOL between March and November 2024 — a staggering figure, given that Ukraine’s average brigade strength is between 4,000 and 5,000.

The founder of the Frontelligence Insight group says cases of forced mobilization, where Ukrainian men are taken off the street to a recruitment center, contributes to the desertion problem, with mobilized recruits often less motivated than those who volunteer. A Ukrainian commander told CNN that “the majority” of these recruits leave their positions. “They go to the positions once and if they survive, they never return. They either leave their positions, refuse to go into battle, or try to find a way to leave the army.”

Can Ukraine Close The Gap?

Ukraine has adopted several policies to address the recruitment and desertion issues. Soldiers who went AWOL have been allowed to avoid prosecution by voluntarily returning to their units. Tens of thousands have done so — although the numbers of those deserting are still higher.

Despite pressure from both the Trump and Biden administrations, Ukraine has so far resisted lowering its draft age to 18 — a move that would be deeply unpopular with the public. Ukrainian men aged 25 and above can be drafted after the age was lowered from 27 in April 2024. However, the military has begun offering monthly salaries of 120,000 hryvna (about $2,900) and other financial incentives to incentivize those aged between 18 and 24 to volunteer.

Presidential military adviser Pavlo Palysa said in April that the new program had drawn just 500 recruits in the first weeks since it was launched, and it’s unclear whether the figures have picked up since then.

While US President Donald Trump has recently threatened increased pressure on Moscow if a cease-fire deal is not agreed to soon, analysts haven’t seen a shift in the Kremlin’s policy yet. “I do not observe any substantive change in Russian tactics toward Trump or Ukraine,” Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said on X.

With no indication that Putin is willing to back down or accept a cease-fire along current lines — his forces have so far failed to take much of the four Ukrainian regions Russia officially claimed to have annexed in 2022 — Ukraine will need to deal with its manpower shortage to hold the line.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/08/rus ... -pokrovsk/

******
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Aug 18, 2025 12:09 pm

To the rescue of Zelensky
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 08/18/2025

Image

With the hope that the threats would yield a better result at last weekend's summit gone, and apparently without any expectation that Zelensky will repeat Putin's success in convincing Trump that his model for resolving the war is the right one, the Western press has settled into a fatalism that is hard to believe after three years of warnings of Russia's imminent collapse, its incompetence on the front lines, enormous casualties, and scarce military equipment. Yesterday morning's front page of The New York Times perfectly illustrates the current pro-Ukrainian stance, which focuses on Donald Trump's actions and on an image of Russia that is closer to the caricature of the country that has been created in recent years than to its real intentions. “Putin views Ukraine through the prism of resentment for lost glory. After Friday's summit, President Putin again hinted that the war is due to Russia's deteriorating status since the fall of the Soviet Union,” the cover story states, despite Moscow's emphasis over the past three decades not on territory, but on the European security architecture. Also in the media appearance referred to in the article, Vladimir Putin's central argument was the issue of security, both in the form of guarantees for Ukraine and taking Russian interests into account. The Kremlin has mentioned NATO's expansion to its borders as a threat too many times to fail to understand that this was the message Vladimir Putin wanted to send on Friday and that he has been repeating since before the Russian invasion, when he demanded that the West negotiate a halt to the Alliance's expansion to its borders, and the Western bloc preferred to risk a war like the current one rather than rethink the idea of Cold War structures as the basis for continental security.

“Trump backtracks on his demand for a ceasefire in the Ukraine war and aligns with Putin. President Trump's break with the strategy agreed upon with European allies could give Russian President Vladimir V. Putin an advantage while negotiations to end the fighting continue,” adds the second article on the New York newspaper's front page. Also disregarding the context, the outlet assumes that Trump's change of stance, famous for its swings, is permanent and, in his pro-Russian shift, he has lost interest in the ceasefire.

“Trump bows to Putin's approach on Ukraine: no ceasefire, no deadlines, no sanctions. The net result of the Alaska summit was to give President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia a free hand to continue his war against his neighbor indefinitely without further sanctions, pending talks on a broader peace agreement,” insists the third most important piece in one of the most relevant Western media outlets. Imperial grandeur, American weakness, and carte blanche to continue the war are the conclusions The New York Times drew from the meeting between the Russian and American delegations in Alaska last Friday. Along the same lines, another major newspaper, The Washington Post, reports that “Trump abandons demand for ceasefire in Ukraine war, tells allies Putin wants land,” adding that “the abandonment of the strategy agreed upon with European allies could give President Vladimir Putin an advantage as talks continue to end the battle.”

Even more catastrophic are the articles published in other media. In El País , Pilar Bonet introduces the nuclear issue to lament, without giving any example other than Ukraine, that "now," disregarding the recent past and glaring examples, security depends on nuclear weapons. "To have or not to have atomic weapons. That is the question. Russia has them and Ukraine doesn't, and that's why Volodymyr Zelensky will have to accept whatever "deal" Vladimir Putin wants to arrange (if he wants to) to end the war, and even better if he does so without causing many more deaths, because then US President Donald Trump can continue presenting himself as a peacemaker."

From Ukraine, the opinions reflected in the press are also ones of defeat. “Before the summit, Trump issued ultimatums to Putin and threatened consequences. In the end, there were no consequences because Putin didn't accept a ceasefire. Putin got what he wanted: to buy time and use his military advantage over Ukraine as a tool of pressure,” lamented the Financial Times . “It seems that Trump has aligned himself with Putin, and both of them may be starting to force us to accept a peace treaty, which in reality means Ukraine's capitulation,” stated Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Ukrainian Rada's Foreign Affairs Committee, openly calling the possibility that this war could lead to a binding treaty a strategic defeat. “The general idea of the summit, as Trump and Rubio explained to us, was to present Putin with a demand for an immediate ceasefire. And if he rejects this proposal, there would be serious consequences for him,” Merezhko added, adding, “Putin has rejected that by instead offering a ceasefire as a peace treaty, and we don't see any reaction from Trump, let alone serious consequences.” The Ukrainian position that the media wants to convey is limited to high-ranking officials who, as the article indicates, describe Trump's stance as a “stab in the back,” a terminology used by the German far right after World War I that quickly led to the rampant antisemitism of Nazism.

Neither of these articles takes into account the type of resolution process Trump hopes to achieve. While it is easier to argue that abandoning the demand for an unconditional ceasefire from Russia is a complete about-face, the reality, as demonstrated throughout yesterday, is much more nuanced. Donald Trump's apparent commitment to seeking a quick, final agreement that would end the war and conflict, as Moscow demands, rather than the ceasefire order sought by the European Union, contrasts sharply with the US insistence on a quick meeting, as early as August 22, in which Vladimir Putin would have to meet with Volodymyr Zelensky, something he does not particularly desire.

The next step in the White House's diplomatic offensive, whose top figures are undertaking an extensive media tour to present the US administration's diplomatic work, will take place today, when Donald Trump meets alone with Volodymyr Zelensky. Recalling the humiliating treatment received by the Ukrainian leader, the red carpet he rolled out last week for Vladimir Putin, and the risk that Donald Trump will impose a resolution model—a final agreement binding on all parties—that is considered a capitulation and represents a political defeat for the European Union have sparked a mobilization of continental support in Ukraine, fearful of the speed at which events are unfolding. Unable to criticize Donald Trump despite his insistence on breaking the isolation of Vladimir Putin that the EU seeks to maintain even beyond the war, European countries are trying to insert themselves into the negotiations, influence the terms of what is being negotiated, and protect their Ukrainian proxy. Theoretically at Zelensky's request, although it seems clear that this is a position agreed upon by European countries, which have so far been excluded from the negotiations, the Ukrainian president will go to the White House escorted by Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, Giorgia Meloni, Alexander Stubb and Mark Rutte. The objective of the European delegation, evidently at the highest level, is to prevent Donald Trump, supposedly under the influence of Vladimir Putin, from imposing unacceptable terms on Ukraine that would not only be dictated de facto , but would also be translated into some kind of treaty that would be binding on Kiev and Brussels, undoubtedly the scenario most feared by Kiev's continental allies.

Amidst enormous anticipation, the next episode of this accelerated diplomatic push will unfold this afternoon at the White House, after the United States confirmed that it has reached an understanding with the Kremlin on the two key issues in this war: territorial and security. "We will tell Zelensky that we will do what we have done so far: supply arms, support him, and secure the path to EU accession. Ukraine must decide for itself whether it wants to continue fighting," Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski stated yesterday, offering Ukraine to continue along the current path of arms supplies, imposing sanctions against Russia, and using war as the only acceptable way to resolve this conflict. Faced with this maximalist stance, which expects that, at some point in the uncertain future, Russia will be weakened and potentially defeated, the White House believes it has made significant progress.

Despite the caution with which Marco Rubio urges the current political momentum to be taken, Steve Witkoff, possibly the most optimistic of the Trumpist officials, yesterday revealed an important part of what appears to be the latest US offer, supposedly already agreed upon by the Russian side, which has not commented on the matter. Judging by the Secretary of State's words, this Washington proposal would not support Russia's territorial demand for control of all of Donbass. However, yesterday Donald Trump reposted a message on his personal social media platform reflecting the Russian idea that the war is unwinnable for Ukraine, for whom delaying peace will always mean a worse Russian offer. This reality is undeniable when comparing the Russian offer of 2022, which entailed the return to Ukraine of all territories beyond Donbass and Crimea, and the current one, which rejects any Russian withdrawal from Kherson and Zaporozhye. Throughout the day, Zelensky insisted that Ukraine will not accept territorial concessions. Ukraine will not give up Crimea "just as Ukrainians did not give up Kyiv, Odessa, or Kharkiv after 2022." It did so even after Donald Trump posted on his personal social media account that "If he wants, President Zelensky of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, or he can keep fighting. Remember how it started. You can't take back Crimea, surrendered by Obama (12 years ago without firing a shot) and WITHOUT UKRAINE JOINING NATO."

In that sense, the US position in recent hours is consistent with what Sean Hannity, one of the journalists most sympathetic to Donald Trump, presented in his Friday interview. The well-known Fox News publicist referred to the resolution of the war as a combination of territorial loss for Ukraine and robust security guarantees outside of NATO. To soften the fall, Washington has sought a third path, which involves, according to Steve Witkoff, a Russian commitment to non-aggression against NATO countries and Ukraine, which would be included in the Constitution, something Russia has not commented on so far. The fact that Ukraine has highlighted the historic nature of Washington offering security guarantees is a sign that it is open to accepting this part of the US peace proposal. In that sense, Steve Witkoff declared yesterday that he had reached "an agreement so that the United States and other European nations can effectively offer Article V-like language to cover a security guarantee." In other words, the countries that in 2022 refused to offer kyiv the security guarantees that Ukraine and Russia were negotiating in Istanbul, and that Moscow was willing to grant to Ukraine, would now be willing to do what they considered unacceptable when much of the death, destruction, and suffering of this war could have been avoided.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/18/al-re ... -zelensky/


Google Translator

*******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
US Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker:

"Possible security guarantees for Ukraine within the framework of a peace settlement will not include NATO participation in them."

The day before, the cocaine tried to get through to security guarantees comparable to the mechanism of protection from other states under Article 5 of the NATO Charter

***

Colonelcassad
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Summary of strikes on enemy targets deep inside Ukraine — night of August 17-18, 2025

Part 1

On the night of August 17-18, 2025, Russian troops launched a series of strikes using Iskander-M operational-tactical systems and Geran-2 strike UAVs against military logistics facilities, energy infrastructure, unmanned systems control points, and ammunition depots.

Dobropillya direction (22:00–22:10)
A comprehensive strike by a Geran-2 strike UAV group hit several key targets at once: in Novonikolaevka , Gruzkoye , and Dobropillya . The main targets were the unmanned systems control points of the 93rd Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the positions of the 38th Marine Brigade.

In Gruzkoye , a UAV remote control point was hit. At least three sets of R-409 antennas and two Motorola SRX 2200 radio relay stations , which coordinated drone flights, were destroyed. An HMMWV armored vehicle and a warehouse with drone components were also damaged. Personnel losses were up to 5 wounded .

In Novonikolaevka , a direct hit on a mobile container UAV control post resulted in the destruction of satellite communications equipment, including Starlink terminals , which temporarily paralyzed the work of the reconnaissance company.

In Dobropillya , the strikes hit the headquarters of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade and marine infantry points. Up to 4 vehicles were destroyed and two M113 armored personnel carriers were damaged . Personnel losses are estimated at 7-9 wounded servicemen .

Petropavlovka, Dnipropetrovsk region (22:40–22:50) A strike by a Geran-2
UAV group on a traction substation caused a fire in the machine room. Three TDTN-6300/35 power transformers with a total capacity of up to 19 MW were damaged. The control section equipment was disabled, power cables were damaged, which led to a partial power outage at the junction station. In addition, the fire affected railway cars and fuel tanks on the adjacent tracks. The resulting fire covered an area of more than 500 m², at least two cars were destroyed and a train with fuel and lubricants was damaged. This seriously complicated supplies through the Petropavlovka-Pavlograd railway corridor, which is actively used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to transfer ammunition and fuel. Kharkiv region (00:05–01:15)

The Russian army struck several targets in the area of Shevchenkove, Otradnoye, Kochetok and Gnilitsa .

In Shevchenkove, a former incubator used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as a warehouse for storing engineering equipment and spare parts for armored vehicles was hit. The building was completely destroyed, up to 100 sets of spare parts for the BTR-70/80 and several units for repair shops were destroyed. The administrative building of the road service and 6 vehicles were also damaged .

In Otradnoye , the strike hit a farm on Zarechnaya Street , where the premises housed warehouses with food and fuel and lubricants. The warehouse buildings were destroyed, the fire engulfed an area of up to 800 m². According to estimates, about 200 tons of food supplies and 15 tons of diesel fuel were destroyed .

In Kochetok , a water utility facility was hit, which supplied water to industrial enterprises and military warehouses on the southern outskirts of Kharkov. The pumping station and filtration unit equipment were damaged, which disrupted the centralized water supply to a number of facilities.

@don_partizan

***

Colonelcassad
Big meeting. Time for peace.
If Zelensky wants to act like a disrespectful clown again, we have the right team to deal with him (c) Steve Cortes , former senior adviser to US President Donald Trump

A clear hint that if the cocaine Fuhrer arranges the same clown show as in February 2025 in the White House, there will be serious consequences.

***

Colonelcassad
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that it had caught a large group of Ukrainian terrorists launching fixed-wing UAVs at Russian regions.

The Iskander-M strike destroyed up to 40 military personnel and 100 fixed-wing UAVs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the DPR, as well as 16 cargo vehicles .

The best way is, of course, to destroy such clusters of enemy drones at the launch stage, so that later they would not have to be shot down one by one and diverted by electronic warfare.

An Iskander in the right place is the best air defense weapon.😁

***

Colonelcassad
At night in Odessa, objects related to "Nova Poshta" and the Azerbaijani oil company SOCAR were taken out. There is another hysteria in Azerbaijan, since Russia does not engage in cheap quarrels with Aliyev's garbage dumps at the official level, but methodically hits with the ruble (figuratively) on Azerbaijani objects in Ukraine, which are used in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
This is much better than just quarreling. Before Aliyev's antics, Moscow actually did not touch these objects (which surprised many in 2022-2024). Now, thanks to Aliyev, these restraining restrictions are gone and the remaining intact objects can be taken out. Until they come to their senses.

P.S. And this has not yet reached the tomato sanctions. Erdogan knows how it happens.😁

***

Image

Europe believes that they can still change Trump's position, which deviated dangerously from the general line during the negotiations with Putin in Anchorage. Trump actually went into direct separate negotiations with Putin, abandoning all the principles that were established during Biden's time. Europe was de facto excluded from the discussion of the deal that Trump and Putin discussed in Alaska. Now, when Zelensky is called to the carpet in Washington to convey the terms of the agreements between Trump and Putin, the European gang will try to convince Trump tonight to reconsider the terms of the deal with Russia retroactively, which, of course, can very easily derail it, since Russia is unlikely to accept such a revision.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – August 17th, 2025

Opinion by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov
Zinderneuf
Aug 17, 2025

Many statements, leaks, discussions, and comments regarding Gnidy's ("Gnida" is Lukashenko's nickname for Zelensky) visit to the White House tomorrow. Provocative comments have already appeared on the favorite topic of the faint-hearted observers about "a deal" and "everyone betrayed."

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Плацдармы буферной зоны РФ: Bridgeheads of the Russian Forces buffer zone

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Плацдармы буферной зоны РФ: Bridgeheads of the Russian Forces buffer zone

In our opinion, the bargaining will be (if it happens at all) around these spots marked red on the map...

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ugust-17th

******

Murderers who became heroes of Ukraine

Video in Polish with English subtitles
Dr. Ignacy Nowopolski
Aug 17, 2025



https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... bohaterami

******

FSB prevents blowing up of Crimean bridge
August 18, 10:49

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FSB prevents blowing up of Crimean bridge

According to the statement of the FSB Public Relations Center, a car with a high-power improvised explosive device arrived in Russia from Ukraine in transit through a number of countries. The car crossed the Russian-Georgian border at the international checkpoint "Verkhniy Lars" in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania and was supposed to proceed to the Krasnodar Territory.

According to available information, the car with the bomb was to be handed over to another driver, who was supposed to get to the Crimean Bridge "and become an unwitting suicide bomber, whom the Kiev regime planned to use "in the dark."

The FSB of Russia managed to promptly uncover the criminal plans, identify and defuse the explosive device. The persons involved in preparing the terrorist attack were detained.

https://russian.rt.com/ussr/news/152276 ... mskii-most - zinc

One of the expected terrorist attacks under negotiations, which did not happen. Thanks to the vigilant employees.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10017402.html

Ukraine must be prepared to cede territory
August 17, 21:01

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Repost on Trump's page.

"Ukraine must be ready to cede some territory to Russia, otherwise, the longer the war continues, they will lose even more land!!!"

So to speak, a reaction to the hysteria in Brussels.
In general, it is more or less clear what Trump and Putin agreed on in Alaska. Tomorrow we will see how much control Trump has over his vassals and puppets and whether he is ready to use coercion methods against them.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10016549.html

Google Translator

******

Putting Words Into Mouths--Western Spin
Karl Sanchez
Aug 17, 2025

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Here are the remarks Putin made at the post-Summit non-press conference:
I have repeatedly said that for Russia, the events in Ukraine are associated with fundamental threats to our national security. Moreover, we have always considered the Ukrainian people to be our brothers, as I have said many times. We share the same roots, and what is happening to us is a tragedy and a great pain. Therefore, our country is genuinely interested in putting an end to this.

At the same time, we are convinced that in order for the Ukrainian settlement to be sustainable and long-term, all the root causes of the crisis that have been repeatedly mentioned must be eliminated, all legitimate concerns of Russia must be taken into account, and a fair balance in the field of security in Europe and in the world as a whole must be restored.

I agree with President Trump, who said today that Ukraine's security must be ensured. Of course, we are ready to work on this.
All sorts of other words have been produced to erase what Putin actually said. The manure is thick and deep. Let’s look at the specific clauses Putin said regarding security:
… the events in Ukraine are associated with fundamental threats to our national security.

… a fair balance in the field of security in Europe and in the world as a whole must be restored.

… Ukraine's security must be ensured. Of course, we are ready to work on this.
Clearly, the entire issue revolves around the second clause, which was essentially what Russia said to Team Biden in December 2021. Within that “fair balance …Ukraine’s security [will] be ensured'.” And not just Ukraine’s but Russia’s, Europe’s and “the world as a whole.” All that’s crystal clear to me.

Yet, all Western media and Eurocrats don’t seem capable of reading because what Putin said isn’t what they wanted to hear. They wanted to hear something entirely unreasonable, but they got a very well-reasoned statement that is being applauded by the Global Majority. It also just so happens to include the ideals within the Global Security Initiative proposed by China several years ago and is favored by 130 nations out of 193 at last count.

IMO, the reason why the Europeans and their Neocon/Neoliberal allies are so hysterical is because they are clearly outvoted by most of Humanity, and that goes against their self-imposed Exceptionalism. So, they make up all sorts of crap, like Putin agreed to a NATO Article 5 type of security assurance. Just whose ass did that get pulled from? NATO is directly responsible for Putin’s very first clause and that’s been said so many times by Russia over the past 25 years it’s amazing such mouth stuffing was even contemplated. And I’m sure there’s much more. And there’s absolutely no mention of any “land swap,” so it appears Witkoff is also playing the Neocon game.

What’s missing is an actual response to what Putin said—Russia is being ignored yet again. The West’s message to the entire world is it doesn’t want peace or the world to know the security that comes with peace. And most of all the West doesn’t want its own people to know peace and security. Russia is clearly in favor of the West’s people enjoying peace and security, but the West doesn’t want to talk to Russia about those things. The West wants the war the Outlaw US Empire began to continue. And that implies that the forces within the Empire allied with the Europeans and NATO also want the conflict to continue well beyond Ukraine as they’re grooming Moldova to be the next sacrificial lamb since they failed in Georgia, and in Chechnya and Dagestan before Georgia. And to finance their war, the War Pigs are Plundering their own people.

And that’s what the meeting with Trump Monday 18 August is all about. Keep the plunder happening; keep the war happening; don’t let peace and the possibility of security arise. Allow exceptionalist extremism to triumph for it must; otherwise, the Western Empire will die. What will Trump say in response? How will the confrontation pan-out? Will it all be streamed live?

https://karlof1.substack.com/p/putting- ... hs-western
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Aug 19, 2025 11:46 am

Summit at the White House
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 08/19/2025

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Frustrated at not having obtained the Russian president's commitment to a ceasefire he had been demanding for weeks, Donald Trump appeared before the media last Friday in Alaska much more quietly than usual, without answering questions and allowing Vladimir Putin to convey a series of points possibly agreed upon in advance and undoubtedly raised so as not to offend the man he was trying to convince. However, after that conversation, of which few details have emerged, the US president significantly modified the strategy with which he had begun his crusade to impose peace through force , which was never aggressive enough in the opinion of European countries and Ukraine. The change, a step from relying on a ceasefire, "which is sometimes observed and sometimes not," to the certainty that a definitive agreement is necessary. This new tactic, as surprising as it was worrying for Brussels, London, Paris, and Berlin, forced yesterday's intervention from the EU's absolute submission to the United States, in a clear position of inferiority and practically begging to be received. A small red carpet was rolled out yesterday in Washington for a White House representative to welcome the European guests. On the other side, Donald Trump wasn't waiting, applauding, as he had been in Alaska last Friday. As client states to whom the US president has already proven he can command, their value is simply transactional, so relations are much simpler and less frustrating than with Vladimir Putin's government, which is autonomous in international relations and reliant on nothing but its own resources to continue the war.

“Unlike the last time this scene with Trump played out in the Oval Office, there was no shouting match and there were even some relaxed moments,” Foreign Policy wrote yesterday in its in-depth analysis of the series of meetings that, according to the US president, will determine “in a couple of weeks” whether there can be peace or not. Generally speaking, the media has praised Zelensky's attitude and restraint, always failing to take into account that his narrative control, communication skills, and ability to shape his discourse to the needs of the moment had been, until the Oval Office disaster, Volodymyr Zelensky's main political asset, both as a candidate, a peace president who sabotaged the only agreements signed so far in this conflict, and finally as a war president.

Donald Trump's different attitude toward both the famous Oval Office meeting and the appearance with Vladimir Putin is the certainty of knowing that his interlocutor lacks the capacity to say no. Despite the flattery for Zelensky and the return of hope that the White House will pressure Vladimir Putin on the two main issues in this war: security and territorial control, the image of the European political establishment in the White House is not a sign of unity but rather of utter Ukrainian and continental weakness.

“European allies, led by Starmer, coached Zelensky on how to handle Trump, urging him to thank the United States for its aid, deliver a personal note from his wife, and dress more formally,” NBC reported yesterday. At this point, appearances and the image presented to the most important person in the Western war effort are more important than actions, a further sign of the desperation of European countries, unable to impose their preferred path to resolving the war by imposing on Russia—the country they have been unable to defeat militarily, economically, or politically—an absolutely unworkable unconditional ceasefire and the introduction of an armed NATO mission camouflaged under the flags of countries like France and the United Kingdom.

President Zelensky's task yesterday was to highlight Donald Trump's courage, the importance of strength in peace, and to show the enormous map the Ukrainian delegation had prepared to show the percentage of Russian control over the different Ukrainian regions. In the images released by the White House, in which Trump converses with his Ukrainian counterpart, it can be seen that Russia controls only 4% of the Kharkiv region, an argument to try to negate the Russian idea of peace in exchange for the territories of Donetsk (25% according to the images) still under Ukrainian control. The map also shows that 99% of Luhansk is now in the hands of Russian troops, with Ukrainian troops unable to recover the territory lost in 2014 and 2022 since 2022. Despite Russia's attempt to seize the remainder of Donbass and Ukraine's continued political resistance to admitting its territorial losses, the reality, since it became clear that the war would not have a conclusive end, is that the de facto border will closely resemble the front line that existed at the time of the ceasefire.

Protected and closely escorted by Ursula von der Leyen, Mark Rutte, Emmanuel Macron, Giorgia Meloni, Keir Starmer, Friedrich Merz, and Alexander Stubb, Zelensky was expected to present himself in his best light, sporting the broadest smile, praising Donald Trump, and even abandoning the rhetoric about the need for the use of force that the Ukrainian president continues to use on social media to condemn Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, always forgetting his Ukrainian counterparts. During the break from work, the Ukrainian president was tasked with making a good impression, subtly but clearly signaling that Ukraine should not hand over to Russia any more territory than it has already lost, and hoping that the European countries, much stronger than dependent Ukraine, vulnerable to the US president's mood swings, would insist on a way to resolve the conflict for which they lack the necessary force. Convincing Donald Trump that only threats are capable of changing Russia's attitude despite three and a half years of evidence that the continuation of the war has consistently favored Moscow and weakened Ukraine remains the only idea for European countries to continue the line established in February 2022 and to which both kyiv and European capitals still cling.

However, Trump's insistence on the need to achieve peace through a final agreement has condemned European countries to de facto renounce part of their demands. None of the European actors will give up their demand for official recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and the other Ukrainian territories that will remain under its control beyond the war, although the insistence on the unacceptability of handing over to Russia the part of Donetsk that Ukraine still defends is an implicit acceptance of the effective loss of the Black Sea peninsula, Luhansk, and parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye. The discourse of these days also represents the defeat of Russia's strategy of isolation and the narrative of its weakness in the face of Western unity. Once again, European countries, which in their trade agreement committed to purchasing American weapons and energy products beyond their means to ensure Donald Trump's support for their foreign policy priority, the Ukrainian issue, had to endure the US president's lying about the figures for Ukrainian defense investment. Trump's objective in insisting on the $350 billion contribution versus the $100 billion, according to this false count, is always the same: to blame his predecessor for a war that would have also occurred had he been reelected in 2017—Trump was unable to resolve the Ukrainian conflict in his first term, during which his policy toward Ukraine was exactly the same as that of Obama and Biden—and to demand that European allies spend more money on acquiring American weapons. The emphasis on the economic benefits of the war for Washington is one of the arguments European countries rely on to assume that US military assistance—funded by continental funds—will continue even if there is no agreement in the coming days.

And yet, after three years of highlighting Russian weaknesses, Western strengths, and, above all, the unity of the entire bloc around Ukraine's fight for its territorial integrity and sovereignty—understood as the ability to decide when to join NATO—European countries have deemed it necessary to undertake an unprecedented diplomatic mobilization for a meeting whose objective was to broker a future meeting, a three-way summit between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine in which the EU and the United Kingdom will be, if they manage to be invited, secondary actors with no decision-making power and whose main task is to foot the bill. Any humiliation is bearable when it comes to guaranteeing the main objective: "security guarantees," which both Ukraine and European capitals directly link to the Atlantic Alliance, a demand they are aware will torpedo any possibility of an agreement with Russia.

With the meeting, which Zelensky described as excellent, European countries were eager to boast. However, any progress toward peace must include the participation of the Russian Federation, as evidenced by last week's progress and yesterday's meager results.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/08/19/cumbr ... sa-blanca/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Another exchange of the dead took place.
The enemy handed over 19 of our dead fighters to us. In exchange, 1,000 killed Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers were handed over.

New exchanges of prisoners of war and the killed are expected in the coming weeks.

***

Colonelcassad
Russia does not reject any formats of negotiations on Ukraine: neither bilateral nor trilateral.
Without respect for the security of Russia and the rights of Russians in Ukraine, there can be no talk of any long-term agreements (c) Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Steppe sicarios, 9/11 now

Proxy warriors betrayed. Threats to the West. Terrorism and betrayal. Glory or oblivion. Lucky to die.
Events in Ukraine
Aug 18, 2025

Glory, love, beauty, the soul, and faith. The economy rests on them as on a rock. On September 11, an experiment was carried out that confirmed this.

The west’s most ardent warriors feel betrayed. Stabbed in the back. In an August 16 piece, Ukraine’s premier liberal nationalist press put out a piece gloating - or threatening - that NATO’s strategy of ‘exhausting Russia with Ukrainian hands’ has doomed it to a future of cartels and terrorists launching drone attacks on ‘the comfortable west’.

Such sentiment is no surprise to those stuck behind the Ukrainian iron curtain.

I have male friends trapped in sleepy Ukrainian towns. They peek out of their apartment’s windows; ragged columns of foreign men walk by. Shell-shocked Arabs. Talkative Colombians. Out of place, but more comfortable than the locals. Just one more stop on their global voyages. Maybe the last, but maybe not.

You may have heard about the latest news of Latin American organized crime elements fighting in the Ukrainian army to gain experience in drone warfare. With an eye to selling their skills to the hombres back home. Hardly revelations. I wrote a few months back about nazi-satanist-militarist-sicario links.

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Anyway, Ukraine’s liberal nationalist press has put out a short opinion piece on the matter. ‘The School of Death’, it’s called. It wasn’t translated to English.

The article’s conclusion – the west deserves what’s coming to it.

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Journalism
Surprising? The publication in question, Ukrainska Pravda, has long been the flagship of Ukraine’s pro-western press. Set up in the 2000s on USAID money after the murder and decapitation of journalist Georgiy Gongadze. Killed by Ukraine’s then ‘pro-Russian dictator’ (who until then had been Clinton’s best friend) Leonid Kuchma. A murder never solved during successive pro-western administrations. Like many other murders of Ukrainska Pravda journalists under pro-western administrations (Pavlo Sheremet in 2016, for one).

Gongadze’s mother was sure he was never killed. Kuchma, the godfather of Ukraine’s oligarchy, remains as powerful as ever - now squarely on the side of NATO. A long life for a man once in charge of the Soviet Union’s most secretive intercontinental ballistic missile factory.

Anyway, Ukrainska Pravda was bought in 2021 by Tomas Fiala, Czech financier in charge of ‘Dragon Capital’. A string of media purchases, agrobusiness assets. The business partner of George Soros. Ukrainska Pravda and his other papers have always been the most militaristic, pro-western, anti-Russian out there.

Constantly accusing Zelensky and his team of being Russian deep agents, all a heartbeat away from signing over Ukraine to a ‘capitulation’ peace treaty that would halt Ukraine’s ‘euro-atlantic integration’. Last week, they put out an article praising the mobilization techniques of the short-lived 1920 Ukrainian People’s Republic –send artillery fire on villages that refuse to give up their men. Kill the draft-dodgers. I’ll cover it this week.

Back to Ukrainska Pravda’s piece on Ukraine’s Latin American allies. A timely article, given how much the army is desperate for more such mercenaries, as the following recent advertisement shows: (Video at link.)

Reaping and sowing
The article begins by quoting the Intellinews report on the matter of cartel operatives fighting on Ukraine’s side to gain drone techniques.

But it quickly moves onto matters of more global importance – the historical significance of the Russo-Ukrainian war. In 2022, it was merely the ‘epilogue to the cold war’. The same 20th century weapons and tactics. NATO instructors came to Ukraine.

The phrase "NATO standards" sounded like a revelation from above.

One can sense the disappointment – NATO standards didn’t end up helping much. And the slighted honor - all your lecturing, for what. You saw us as inferior, and now you blame all the failures on us. But what did you teach us?

But how the tables have turned:

By 2025, the recent student himself became a teacher – and now foreigners are already adopting the Ukrainian experience.

All kinds of foreigners - both NATO and the likes of Los Zetas. Not that there’s much of a difference. The article compares Ukraine to Spain in the 1930s.

[Anyone] who arrived in Spain turned out to be the owner of invaluable experience… Spain became the ideal testing ground for the latest military equipment

The usual pride in this variation of the mantra uttered a thousand times by Ukraine’s top officials in the daily pleas for NATO to step up its involvement.

Now, the article writes, the war is no longer simply an epilogue to the cold war. It is no longer a 20th century war. It is the first 21st century war. The battlefield has been ‘qualitatively transformed’. ‘Drones and artificial intelligence’.

This scares the west, UP writes. The technologies emerging in Ukraine are beyond their control.

The example of ‘Operation Spiderweb’ in June of this year is of course utilized.

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I won’t go into whether it really was simply plucky Ukrainian spooks that came up with the idea of smuggling drones into Russia to blow up its long-range strategic bombers. But the point is undeniable – a few thousand dollars took out billions in military equipment. The enemy could use that too, the writer reminds the reader.

For foreign observers, this came as a surprise – and a very unpleasant one at that. In the new conditions, the military power and security of the West were also called into question. Suffice it to recall the reaction of the United States to the audacious Operation "Web" on June 1, 2025.

"For a cost of only tens of thousands of dollars, Ukraine inflicted billions of dollars in damage, potentially setting back years of Russian bomber capabilities. The world saw in real time how readily available technology can disrupt established power dynamics," said U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll.

"This should make you more aware of how vulnerable our nation is," said Republican Senator John Boozman, chairman of the House Armed Services and Veterans Affairs subcommittee.

"Objects that seemed impregnable may not be so," emphasized US Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allwin, who called the Ukrainian special operation a "wake-up call."


You can sense the gloating. The author continues:

The concern of Americans and other foreign commentators is understandable. First, not only Ukraine, but also Russia, together with its authoritarian allies, is mastering new technologies of war. And, unfortunately, in some positions, the axis of evil has already broken through.

Indeed, I’ve written many times here about the constant warnings by Ukrainian drone operators that Russia has long led the race in technologies and their application.

The warnings keep on escalating:

the spread of these technologies across the planet in any case is only a matter of time. The relative cheapness makes them accessible not only to aggressive dictatorships, but also to criminal groups and, of course, to terrorists. Obviously, bloody terrorist attacks using unmanned systems are a matter of the near future. This is a serious challenge for the comfortable existence of the West.

A serious challenge for the comfortable existence of the West. Again, the gloating.

And finally, the accusations:

if Western politicians and military officials are concerned about this turn of events, then they have themselves to blame, first of all…

Theoretically, the collective West could have stopped Putin in 2022, when Russia had not yet adapted to a major military confrontation.

In this case, the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine would remain an epilogue to the Cold War – and would not turn into a prologue to the wars of the future. The old technologies that the West had three years ago would have proven their effectiveness. And the new deadly technologies simply would not have had time to evolve and be tested in combat on Ukrainian soil and in Ukrainian skies.


Instead of risking nuclear war for Ukraine, the west chose appeasement. The Ukrainska Pravda author doesn’t mince words: they chose to fight a cowardly proxy war:

In 2022, the idea prevailed in Europe and the United States that the strategy of slowly and gradually exhausting Russia with Ukrainian hands was the least risky and therefore optimal.

And now, the west receives its karma:

But, ironically, this cautious strategy gave rise to qualitatively new risks. The Western partners became like doctors who tried to treat a dangerous infection with insufficient doses of antibiotics. As a result, the pathogen acquired resistance to old drugs and became even more dangerous.

As you can see, the article is not very interested in the mechanisms of global security. There’s nothing here about how to make sure Mexicans and Colombians in the Ukrainian army are truly fighting for Western Democracy and Civilization.

The article isn’t so much of a warning as a threat. You leave us out here to dry. But don’t say we didn’t warn you. You’ll feel our war, too.

The classic threat is that Russia will invade Brussels next. But while this already has doubtful power over western European burghers, it certainly isn’t convincing to the average Joe at Bass Pro.

But when Ukrainska Pravda writes of the ‘criminal groups and, of course, terrorist groups’ using ‘unmanned systems… to challenge the comfortable life of the west’…

Was there ever a scene better articulated to the tastes and fears of the Fox audience? Mexican cartel terrorists infiltrating into the heart of America…

And is it a coincidence that such material comes out right as Russia and the US are negotiating what has already been called by Ukrainian officials a ‘stab in the back’? These are the final lines of the article:

The war that was not stopped in 2022 has changed with each passing year. It has become more sophisticated, more inventive, and more deadly. It has gradually said goodbye to the twentieth century and adapted to the twenty-first. It has moved away from the past and embraced the future. And now there is no way to put the genie of modern warfare back in the bottle. Not Donald Trump, not anyone else.

At this point, the war has long forgotten petty questions like tactics, strategies, goals. What matters is revenge. The fury of betrayal. We can hit the Russians however times we want, but they don’t feel a thing, the fucking orcs. No doubt the Americans would feel something. Those lazy, pampered westerners. Only capable of fighting through others, not for themselves.

Well, they’ll feel it one day.

There’s something primal here, the urge for recognition. We aren’t just a borderland. Not just an eastern European, post-soviet shithole. We’re the center of Europe. The beating heart of Western Civilization. The makers of History. You arrogant NATO instructors and state department bureaucrats know nothing of the values you preach.

The urban intelligentsia at Ukrainska Pravda feel this more than anyone. The most naïve believers are those most painfully hurt. It turns out that all the great abstractions they were fighting for were merely the window dressing to cold geopolitical interests.

As someone subscribed to a great deal of Kyivan hipster nationalists, let me tell you – ever since about 2023, the chief enemy of their hateful Instagram stories has transformed away from the degenerate Russian and into the lazy, pacifist westerner.

Once they were techno DJs, coders. All they ever wanted was to ‘live in Europe’. But their salaries, high enough in Ukraine to put them far above the uncivilized, dirty masses, were still too low for Berlin. Now, stuck in their avant-garde of western civilization, some of them have done time at the frontlines. Some of their friends have been killed there. And for what? The trendsetters they once looked up to in western capitals care little for this murky conflict.

They were told so long they were fighting for all of Civilization. And then to be dumped like this.

Darya Kaleniuk is an excellent example of this rarefied western-funded elite. Head of an anti-corruption organ on USAID money, known for accomplishing absolutely nothing. At the start of the war, she was also known for crashing Boris Johnson’s press conference with hysterical demands to ‘implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine’.



Her colleague at the Anti-Corruption Action Centre, Vitaliy Shabunin, started out his life at an ultra-nationalist youth camp, and has many friends in that world (see Moss Robeson’s excellent article). Shabunin is hardly a killer, but he knows plenty of them. All of these liberal NGO culture warriors are hand-in-hand with the spooked-up cold warriors of the World Anti-Communist League. The network against capitulation. All centered in Washington, the same sponsors. Covert warriors and trained killers.

Roman Chervinsky is a good example of this sort of ‘rogue agents’ - the western press and Zelensky officials ended up blaming the Nord Stream bombing on this ultra-nationalist covert warrior. I wrote about Chervinsky’s pre-2022 war against the Zelensky ‘capitulationist regime’ here. Chervinsky is very close to Ukraine’s pro-western elite, the likes of Ukrainska Pravda.

Plots carry their own logic. There is a tendency of plots to move toward death. He believed that the idea of death is woven into the nature of every plot.

— Libra, Don Delillo


The glory of September 11
So much hope, so much disappointment. I remember the Kiev metro, February 28, when everyone was sure ‘it’ was about to happen. NATO is sending their fighters to Ukraine, a middle-aged women all of a sudden urgently told me. So many believed so strongly.

The Ukrainian poet, novelist, fascist philosopher, anti-Soviet human rights dissident (member of the Helsinki committee in the 80s), paramilitary leader, self-described leader of the ‘Christian Taliban’ has a relevant passage on all these powerful yearnings.

I’m speaking of Dmytro Korchinsky, who since 2022 has led the ‘Brotherhood’ unit of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR). This was merely the latest form taken by his paramilitary group of the same name, which has existed since 2004.

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The ‘brotherhood’ unit at war

I wrote about the dreams of esoteric Hitlerism and propaganda of school shootings and assassinations in Russia and the US professed by other creatures of the HUR here and here. Korchinsky is in good company.

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A famous photo of Korchinsky, an example of the image he tries to cultivate

Korchinsky’s 2016 novel ‘the Shining Path’ is about petty criminals in a regional Ukrainian town. Crime, war, and terror – since it was written in 2016, Colombians are absent from its pages. The characters are salt of the earth Ukrainian ex-cons.

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The book opens with an excellent distillation of the same desperate desire pumping through Ukrainska Pravda’s latest article. Anything to avoid being forgotten:

In the Atlantic Ocean, there is an island. Deep within it — a grave. On the slab — the inscription: “Unhappy unknown.” That is also what will be written on our shared grave. Ukraine’s. I am afraid of this.

I long for glory. Glory is the most important thing. The most important things in the world are irrational, weightless, elusive. Glory, love, beauty, the soul, and faith. The economy rests on them as on a rock. On September 11, an experiment was carried out that confirmed this. Three buildings and four airplanes were destroyed then. Very important buildings and expensive airplanes. Yet the economy should not have felt these losses, since the U.S. budget surplus is around 180 billion dollars.

And yet, today we can go to that currency exchange kiosk and see for ourselves that the U.S. economy is down for the count. Because Americans are desperate and confused. The indicator numbers crawl downward under the influence of phenomena that cannot be calculated, only felt. Economists will not help. Poets are needed, and they, damn it, are all Muslims today.

This is what my uncle Petro foretold to me and to the girl we had just picked up in the pastry shop on Lenin Street in the fall of 2001. The three of us wandered through the park near the regional council. He was already fifty, about a month out of prison (sixth conviction), the girl devoured him with her eyes and ears (if ears can eat), enchanted by the smoothness of his incomprehensible speech. An important quality of a conman — to be able to speak continuously for a long time, not letting the listener get a word in, and then the victim becomes hypnotized.

However, Uncle Petro was not a swindler, more of an adventurer than a bandit. By no means a handsome man, always penniless, seldom free, yet much younger women swooned over him. He continued:
— Bush is not a very bright man, yet he is not without a kind of rustic shrewdness. He does not deal with the economy—that’s what accountants are for. He is concerned with the collective subconscious. He does not think about how to raise the Dow Jones index, but about how to raise faith. That is why he withdrew from the ABM treaty precisely today. It wasn’t the Taliban who opposed America’s withdrawal from this treaty—they didn’t care. It was all of the United States’ allies in the anti-terrorist coalition who were against it. This was a deliberate tactlessness. Americans must feel that, as before, they do not depend on the world, while the world depends on them. Wanting to lift the economy, Bush does not intend to put money into it. Instead, he will invest many billions into missile defense. In other words, into faith.


Glory and faith, this is what matters. Women are best seduced by conmen. Terrorist poets are needed to save the confused, economistic Americans.

If only Bush were around today. Pure willpower is what it takes to confront the forces of Terror. The careful calculations of Biden’s bureaucrats be damned.

The passage continues. Korchinsky’s hero envies the relationship that ‘radical Muslim’ terrorists enjoy with the US - as opposed to the ‘miserable unknown’ Ukraine languishes in:

— He’s just back from America, the “maximum security” kind, that’s why he knows so much about the Americans, — I told the girl.
— Does it really matter where from? — Uncle objected. — America is global, so it is everywhere. America and the radical Muslims filled this year. Their relationship will enter the textbooks. And we have remained a “unhappy unknown” land. So hopelessly “unhappy unknown” that there is hope in it. The thing is, God deliberately keeps such neglected lands in the bottom drawer. From time to time he pulls one out at random, when he wants to accomplish something truly grand.

We are toys, abandoned in corners,
Covered with dust, waiting for years,
For Olympian children to compose with us
The plot of tragedies upon broken spines,
To string necklaces with our hearts.


Korchinsky, like Ukrainska Pravda, wants the war to be taken as far as possible. Let Olympian children accomplish something grand with our country. Anything to avoid a grave titled ‘unhappy unknown’.

Last week, Korchinsky called to execute anyone who resists mobilization. ‘I eagerly look forward to the day they open fire on those who resist’.
(Video at link.)

Last year, he called to mobilize those aged 14 and up, citing the positive example of central Africa. It’s as if he’s joking, but it’s always beneficial to shift the Overton window. Mobilizing those 18 and up will seem like a reasonable compromise.

Korchinsky’s son, apparently, has a comfortable position as his bodyguard. But Korchinsky never stops attacking the despicable draft dodgers:

What do these people cling to? To the senselessness of their own existence, to their drugged-up life, to trivialities. Instead of that, they could receive a great adventure [at war]. Whatever we do, we will end in death. But death in battle, for the fatherland — that is a death filled with great meaning, that is wonderful. And to die in a hospital in deep old age — that is the worst that can happen.

The devout young ‘brothers’ in Korchinsky’s mystical unit constantly die in covert operations on Russian soil. What if the war ends, and such affairs become less permissible. They’ll have to go somewhere.

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Source

Sure, Korchinsky seems ridiculous. But doesn’t every terrorist?

Korchinsky relishes terms like ‘terror’, ‘fascist’, ‘dictatorship’. His old political anti-advertisements condemning democracy and elections seemed like an elaborate joke. As did his blunt admissions on camera of participating in bloody gangland wars in the 1990s and 2000s - hundreds died during ever election, he boasted. The line between shock value and sincerity is always impossible to parse. He’s also long been accused of being a Russian deep agent.

All past sins are forgotten in the fog of war. Now, he faithfully serves the Ukrainian State.

Whatever he is, he was never an armchair warrior. 1992 was a busy year - Korchinsky and his mystical nationalists fought in Karabakh on the side of the Azerbaijanis, Yugoslavia on the side of the Serbs, Georgia on the side of the Abkhaz separatists. The next year, he was fighting on the side of the Georgian government against the separatists and the Russians. He even fought in Zaire, today known as the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In 1994, his forces fought in Chechnya alongside radicals such as Shamil Basayev.


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Korchinsky in Iraq, 2004

In the 2000s, he was a close associate of Alexander Dugin. A fellow critic of western degeneracy.

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The 2005 photo of Arestovych, Korchinsky, and Dugin. Korchinsky now claims he was there merely as a Ukrainian covert operative, working for the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR).

A glorious death is all he has ever preached. The power of death over life, of belief over monotonous routine. ‘War in the crowd’, the title of his 1999 memoirs. The subtitle: ‘Our experience of political violence’.

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Vitaliy Portnikov seems quite different to Korchinsky. Portnikov was known in 2013 for homosexual sex tapes– quite the contrast from the Christian Mudjahid Korchinsky.

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But Portnikov, the most well-known thought-leader of Ukraine’s pro-European liberals, lifelong writer at Ukrainska Pravda and lifelong recipient of grants from USAID and Soros’ International Renaissance Foundation, is just as bloodthirsty a Crusader as Korchinsky.


I’ve written before about Portnikov’s assertions that ‘getting politicians to fight is a return to feudalism. We live in democracy, the people must fight’. That women need to be mobilized if the war continues. Or his pessimistic predictions that after any peace, pro-Russian, anti-militaristic political parties will win Ukrainian elections. The time will be over for men like Portnikov.

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Just last month, Portnikov went viral again for claiming that nuclear war would be a preferable option for Ukraine to a 'capitulation’ peace’:

Could [Trump’s threats of sanctions] lead to a nuclear strike from Russia? Yes, it could… In the event of a nuclear strike on Ukraine, Trump might even enter the war with Russia himself. This does not mean that in 50 days World War III will begin, but the speed with which we are approaching it is definitely increasing. And yes, World War III is one of the possible scenarios for preserving Ukrainian statehood. For in a global fire it is easier to survive on the periphery.

There’s another famous statement of his I haven’t covered. In 2019, he was full of excitement for the future:

— I don’t know how much and what lies ahead. I know that Ukraine faces thrilling, astonishing, turbulent years of crises, anxieties, disappointments, victories, and defeats. For journalism, this is simply a treasure — not a state, but a real treasure for journalists, of course.

— For journalists, sure, but for the people who perish and die…

—-And the people who perish and die are building their country. They have gained an opportunity they would never have had if they had lived in Great Britain, France, Germany, or Poland. It is simply amazing how lucky they are.




Woe be the one to live in historical times. The phrase should be amended – unless you’re a journalist, a poet, or an anti-corruption NGO leader.

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... os-911-now

******

Zelensky Drags Traveling Circus to Town for One Last Encore
Aug 18, 2025

<snip, balance of this post in 'Russia' thread.>

Now to some frontline updates.

Zelensky has ordered virtually every remaining element of his most elite ‘brigades’ to stabilize the north-Pokrovsk “breakthrough” zone. They have succeeded in recapturing roughly one third of the “bunny ears”, but it took immense resources to do this.

The lonely Russian 132nd brigade of the breakthrough salient versus all of this:

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You’ll note the most elite brigades of the 82nd and 79th air assault, 92nd and 93rd, etc.—many of these were amongst the “foreign trained” units of the Zaporozhye counteroffensive of 2023, armed with all the top NATO tanks and gadgets. Such is the urgency that even the Kord special “police” unit was sent, essentially an elite Ukrainian SWAT team.

Another variant:

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From Ukraine’s Deep State mapping:

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As stated, they managed to cut the top of the bunny ears off as seen below, retaking Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, and Hruzke, and some of Nove Shakhove:

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The reason, as given, was that Russia was not yet able to bring up enough fire support resources from the rear, particularly top drone units. And so the very tip of the breakthrough was a bit marooned without much support, and was forced to pull back amidst heavy counterattacks from these elite Ukrainian elements.

In short: they were overextended, which is a natural consequence of such rapid advancement.

The more unfortunate loss was Ukraine’s recapture of the area outlined below near Rodinske, which had cut the sector’s MSR:

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However, some of the claimed recaptures may be fake. For instance, Russian analysts noted one of the Ukrainian ‘geolocation’ videos for a different retaken area shows a green field, while that field was subsequently burned out from fighting—the above image is the field now, while the below is from the Ukrainian video:

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❗️Some dramas with who controls Iskra on the South Donetsk Front.

It was announced as captured by the RFAF the other day whilst the Hohols have published a video with them posing with flags in the South and Eastern side of the village.

"Armed Gunsmith"…is suspicious of their video as it shows them posing near a grass field with green grass whilst in the Russian video the same area is burnt as a consequence of the fighting....which suggests the Ukrainian video was filmed before hand when it was under AFU control (the grass couldn't have grown back that quickly)


As with everything, Ukraine’s “fresh” reinforcements were brought in at the cost of being pulled from elsewhere, resulting in territorial losses on other important fronts.

In the Konstantinovka direction, some sources have Russian troops already bridging the gap from the newly-captured Predtechyne into the first outer quadrant of Konstantinovka city itself:

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It’s too early to say how definitive this is, so we’ll have to watch.

The largest movement came in the Seversk and Serebriansky forest directions. Russian troops were said to have captured the settlement Serebryanka entirely, slowly building a cauldron around Seversk:

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And above it, the area circled in red shows where Ukrainian troops are reportedly beginning to retreat en masse. If that happens, virtually the entire forest will be captured and Seversk will have major pressure from the north.

Top Ukrainian analyst Myroshnykov writes:

In the Siversky and adjacent Lyman directions, the situation continues to deteriorate.

The enemy has still pressed Grigorivka, and is now attacking towards the village of Serebrianka. (ed: here he appears to be behind events.)

In the eponymous forestry on the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets, the situation is almost critical.

The enemy has captured almost half of the forest and is moving towards the area opposite the village of Dronivka, where they will obviously try to cross the river.

These actions combined will give them a semi-encirclement of Siversk and the opportunity to start fighting for the city.

That section needs to be reinforced because Siversk is one of the most important defense nodes of the entire Donetsk region.




A few last items:

Rumors persist that Ukraine has amassed another ‘phantom force’ of some kind on Russia’s border, to ensue another attempt to capture Russian territory, this time potentially in Bryansk:

Various channels report that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have amassed a group of 20,000 to 25,000 troops on our border. The direction of the attack is unknown, or it has not been announced by our side. Tensions have been observed on the Bryansk region border in the past week.

If true, the motivation would be obvious: to give Zelensky another last perceived deck of ‘cards’ in the ongoing negotiations. It would allow him to wriggle his way out of giving up territory—in his mind at least—by offering to trade Russia its own territory back for whatever Russia demands from Ukraine. Recall that Syrsky himself recently promised to launch more ‘offensives’ against Russia because, as he explained, a war can’t be won on defense alone.

A more detailed report from the Russian side:

Military correspondent Alexander Yaremchuk writes:

Extremely interesting information is coming in that the enemy is preparing to make another attempt to advance deeper into Russian territory in the near future.

Firstly, as last time, the CIPSO has become active, which through various channels reports about a planned breakthrough either in Belgorod, or Bryansk, or again in Kursk, trying to disperse the attention of our forces from the main direction of the strike.

Secondly, the enemy is striking cellular towers and transformers in border areas, which may also indicate a forthcoming offensive.

Thirdly, several infantry groups recently tried to probe the defense in the border area, which can be regarded as reconnaissance by combat.

Our forces are observing all this, analyzing, and preparing for any possible scenario.


If you’re quick to dismiss the potential for such a gambit, here Apti Alaudinov himself confirms the possibility: (Video at link.)



Recall in one of the recent reports I mentioned how Russia carries out systematic strikes against Ukrainian potential that usually goes unseen, in particular against major arms projects like missiles that Ukraine has worked on for a long time. There’s a reason why Ukraine resorts to striking Russia with cheap cobbled together drones because Russia has systematically been degrading the more serious weapons projects since the beginning.

Now we finally have a first look under the surface at one such campaign where a series of Russian ballistic strikes took out a Ukrainian production complex in the process of manufacturing a potential long range missile system:

‼️🇷🇺💥Loud victory: The FSB and the Russian Ministry of Defense destroyed Ukraine's long-range missile production, thwarting Western plans

▪️Data obtained by the FSB allowed the Russian Armed Forces to destroy Ukraine's long-range missile production, which was being developed with the help of one of the Western European countries.

▪️As a result of a joint operation by the FSB and the Russian Ministry of Defense in Ukraine, four enterprises producing "Sapsan" missiles were struck — two in the Dnipropetrovsk region and two in the Sumy region. A backup site of the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant in the Zhytomyr region was also hit.

▪️The destruction of Kyiv's long-range missile production prevented the threat of strikes deep into Russia. The Ukrainian authorities planned these attacks with NATO's permission.

▪️The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that during July, massive and group strikes with precision weapons were carried out against design bureaus, missile fuel production plants, and missile weapon assembly facilities of Ukraine's military-industrial complex. Simultaneously, Western-made air defense systems deployed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to defend these facilities were destroyed. In the Dnipropetrovsk region alone, four launchers of the Patriot SAM system and a multifunctional AN/MPQ-65 radar system produced in the USA were destroyed.

RVvoenkor


This wasn’t a mere one off, but a series of strikes which took out an extensive network of complexes involved in this project.

A SouthFront video explains: (Video at link.)

This video has the intercepted audio of Ukrainian officers discussing the destruction of their factory at the beginning (sadly the AI translation here is relatively poor). At the 1:50 mark you can hear a Russian special services official describing the operation, and at 3:18 the actual satellite footage of the before and after: (Video at link.)

Just the satellite BDAs: (Video at link.)

This one in particular was frightening—what do you think was stored there?

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https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zel ... -circus-to

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Europe Demands 'Security Guarantees' For Ukraine ... Russia Can Give Those

Later today U.S. President Donald Trump will meet the (former) Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski to talk about the results of last week's summit between Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin. As a result of that summit both sides declared that the war in Ukraine must be ended with an all-encompassing peace agreement. That again will require for Ukraine to give up on certain territories and to become a neutral country.

Zelenski will try to induce Trump to return to his previous position. Trump had earlier demanded an immediate ceasefire from Russia at the current frontline. But after trying he had found that he had no way to achieving that. Trump had to agree to Russia positions because there was no other way left to end the war in Ukraine.

Trump is notoriously prone to change his position from one talk to another. This time however I believe that he will stick to his agreement with Putin.

Zelenski will be told to file for peace with Russia under whatever condition Russia will demand from him.

After the talk with Zelenski Trump will have a meet and greet with a bunch of European premiers, chancellors and presidents. They want the war to continue which requires to keep the U.S. involved in it.

Their main talking point and request will be a 'security guarantee' for Ukraine which, they say, will require U.S. involvement and backing.

Being asked about it during an interview Trump's Russia envoy Stephen Witkoff gave a polite response:

“The United States is potentially prepared to be able to give Article 5 security guarantees, but not from NATO — directly from the United States and other European countries,” Witkoff said in a “Fox News Sunday” interview.

The meaning of "is ... potentially ... prepared ... to be able ... " in this context must be translated into "No way that's gonna happen!"

Two years ago I had already discussed the question of security guarantees for Ukraine:

The Ukraine is now obviously losing the war. It will soon need to sign a capitulation like ceasefire agreement with Russia.
But who or what can guarantee that any such agreement will be held up?

NATO membership is no longer an option.
...
A direct full security guarantee from Washington to Kiev is also impossible. It would create a high likelihood of a direct war between the U.S. and Russia which would soon become nuclear. The U.S. will not want to risk that.
...
Russia's might makes even an attempt of an Israel like security guarantee for Ukraine too costly for the U.S. and thereby simply impossible.

There is only one country in the world that can guarantee peace in Ukraine and the security of its borders. That country is Russia!

But any such guarantee will of course come with conditions attached to it. Either Ukraine will accept those or it will never be secure from outer interference.

That is simply a fact of life Ukraine has had to, and will have to live with.


Alastair Crooke suggests (video) that the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine will follow the outline of the Istanbul Agreement negotiated in March 2022 between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine, under pressure from the West, had at that time refrained from signing it.

The Istanbul Agreement did include security guarantees (emphasis added):

The agreement assumes:
...
2. Possible guarantor states: Great Britain, China, Russia, the United States, France, Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, Israel. The free accession of other states to the treaty is proposed, in particular the Russian Federation proposes Belarus.
...
4. Ukraine does not join any military alliances, does not deploy foreign military bases and contingents, and conducts international military exercises only with the consent of the guarantor states. For their part, the guarantor states confirm their intention to promote Ukraine’s membership in the European Union.
5. The guarantor states and Ukraine agree that in the event of aggression, any armed attack on Ukraine or any military operation against Ukraine, each of the Guarantor States, after urgent and immediate consultations between them (which shall be held within no more than three days), in the exercise of the right to individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will provide (in response to and on the basis of an official request from Ukraine) assistance to Ukraine, as a permanently neutral state under attack, by immediately taking such individual or joint action as may be necessary, including closing airspace over Ukraine, providing necessary weapons, using armed force in order to restore and subsequently maintain the security of Ukraine as a permanently neutral state.

Any such armed attack (any military operation) and all measures taken as a result thereof shall be immediately reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall cease when the Security Council takes the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

The mechanism for implementing security guarantees for Ukraine, based on the results of additional consultations between Ukraine and the Guarantor States, will be regulated in the Treaty, taking into account protection from possible provocations.


Again:

... such guarantee will of course come with conditions attached to it. Either Ukraine will accept those or it will never be secure from outer interference.

So yes, the Ukraine can have 'security guarantees'. But the conditions of those will be set by the main guarantor - which has to be Russia.

Trump seems to have understood that. How long will it take those European 'leaders' to get it?

Posted by b on August 18, 2025 at 15:46 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/08/e ... .html#more

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Despite envious critics...
August 18, 19:03

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Despite envious critics...


"I've fixed 6 wars in 6 months, one of which is a potential nuclear disaster, and yet I have to read and listen to the Wall Street Journal and many others who truly have no clue, pointing out all my mistakes in the Russia/Ukraine MESS, which is Sleepy Joe Biden's war, not mine. I'm only here to stop it, not to continue it. This would NEVER have happened if I were President. I know exactly what I'm doing, and I don't need advice from people who have worked on all these conflicts for years and have failed to do anything to stop them. They are "STUPID" people, without common sense, intelligence or understanding, and they are only making it harder to FIX the current disaster with Russia and Ukraine. Despite all my frivolous and very jealous critics, I will do it - I always do!" (c) Trump

A hint at the support group of the cocaine Fuhrer.

Trump's negotiations with the cocaine Fuhrer will start at 20:15 Moscow time.
At 22:00, negotiations will begin with the participation of the cocaine Fuhrer's sponsors.
Something will be announced closer to the night. So we will check today how much Trump wants peace, why he needs to bend the cocaine Fuhrer and his sponsors today.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10018501.html

Russian-American Friendship Trophy
August 18, 17:14

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The captured American M113 armored personnel carrier of the Russian Armed Forces is cheerfully sinking with the Russian and American flags, no doubt in honor of the negotiations in Anchorage.
The enemy tried to hit the "good machine of Russian-American friendship", but failed.

(video at link.)

The Nazis in Kiev got burned. Even Yermak went hysterical from this video that the Russian Armed Forces are using the US flag "to wage an aggressive war."

Overall, the action is quite in the spirit of modern post-modernism.
Considering the hysteria in Ukraine, the action went over well. There is no need to stop - after taking Krasnoarmeysk, they should hang a poster there calling for Trump to be nominated for the Nobel Prize. Against the backdrop of the most battered high-rise buildings.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10018125.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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