Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Nov 16, 2025 1:37 pm

Cannon fodder
Published by @nsanzo ⋅ 16/11/2025

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The Russian army is dying, argued Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, in an appearance on Meet the Press , one of the most prominent political programs in the United States, using a discourse that didn't ring particularly true. The proof is that the question that arose after her comment was whether Ukraine would withdraw from Pokrovsk. Withdrawal wouldn't be a defeat, argues Ukraine, which seems to be preparing to present it as a delayed victory, one of those achievements that, with the movement of the front lines, are increasingly occurring closer to home. In this context, projecting one's own problems onto the enemy helps not only to try to maintain troop morale but also to prevent the spread of articles and denunciations of issues that, over the past year, haven't received enough attention.

The population difference between Russia and Ukraine, which makes mobilization always more complicated for Kyiv, and the attrition of war pose difficulties in replenishing ranks, especially during intense phases of fighting when casualties are higher. Fighting against a clearly insufficient Russian contingent and taking advantage of the nationalist wave that generated a large influx of volunteers to add to the general mobilization, Ukraine did not feel this problem until the war became protracted and Russia incorporated volunteers—thousands of them from prisons—and conscripts during the partial mobilization of autumn 2022. The failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, on which Kyiv and its allies had pinned all their hopes, transformed the conflict into a protracted war of attrition. The massive deployment of drones has created a killing zone, necessitating a large number of replacement troops that Ukraine cannot always recruit without resorting to force.

During this time, Ukraine has gone through all sorts of phases to avoid admitting reality. Considering weapons more important than the troops who must use them, Kyiv has even claimed to have entire brigades that could not be sent to the front due to the scarcity of weapons supplied by Western partners. Aware of the real situation, not the one presented in the media and war reports, Ukraine's allies pressured Kyiv for a time to lower the conscription age. After much pressure and an attempt to protect a young cohort that Ukraine cannot afford to lose, new legislation reduced the conscription age from 27 to 25, but it did not end the debate. Just this week, Kyiv Mayor Vitaly Klitschko, whose military-age children are witnessing the war from abroad, demanded that Zelensky lower the age again, from 25 to 22.

Another important aspect has been the ban on men over 18 leaving the country, which has led to a constant stream of escape attempts, including failed crossings of the Carpathian Mountains and the Dniester River, sometimes costing the lives of those fleeing the war. There has also been preferential treatment for those who could afford to leave. Simultaneously, there has been another exodus that Zelensky tried to stem in the summer: the departure of families whose children were turning 17, their last chance to avoid the risk of conscription. Leaving the country at that age means starting studies abroad and, therefore, not returning to Ukraine for several years. Preventing this double drain—of talent and potential recruits—was the aim of the measure announced by Volodymyr Zelensky in July, which lifted the travel ban for young people, always with the false hope that freedom of movement would lead to their return. However, the situation on the front lines and the risk of death if recruited has led to the opposite: a sustained exodus from the country that has been denounced and criticized by Poland and Germany, two of the countries with the largest number of Ukrainian refugees.

In the past, Germany has stood firm against Ukrainian suggestions to secure Berlin's cooperation in forcing refugees in Ukraine to return—either to the front lines or to contribute to the war effort in the military industry. Berlin has also rejected limiting aid to the refugee population as an incentive for their return. Although the change of government in Germany has left the Ministry of Defense in the hands of the same person, Boris Pistorius, and policies such as denying the Ukrainian government the Taurus missiles it so desperately wants have remained unchanged, notable shifts have occurred. “Watching mediocre bureaucrats transform into monsters eager to send masses of people to their deaths instead of helping them escape is chillingly fascinating,” commented Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin on Friday, referring to Friedrich Merz's remarks.

“In a long telephone conversation today, I asked the Ukrainian president to ensure that young people, particularly those from Ukraine, do not come to Germany in ever-increasing numbers, but rather serve their country,” stated the German chancellor, prioritizing Ukrainian conscription over the well-being of the population and the right of Ukrainians not to be forcibly mobilized at any traffic light, supermarket, or workplace. “They are needed there,” declared the German head of government, effectively ordering the Ukrainian head of state to keep the fighting-age population tied up on the front lines. The proxy nature of this war, in which Ukraine acts as an army in a common war against Russia, means that the shortage of personnel and the possibility of the Armed Forces losing effectiveness is not only a concern for Kyiv, but also a demand from Western allies.

Merz's words, like those of the Polish president, who yesterday announced he would renew "for the last time" the protection afforded to the Ukrainian refugee population, who will lose that status in March, have been received without the slightest reproach in Ukraine. Ukraine is aware that it cannot afford to criticize its allies and, above all, that its interests in this matter are exactly the same as Germany's. Both countries want to keep military-age men in Ukraine and repatriate those who have left the country. Hence, there has also been no adverse reaction to the Washington Post 's report last Friday announcing the start of deportations of Ukrainian men currently in the United States. “Trump officials prepare to deport some Ukrainians despite military service fears,” reads the headline of the article, which explains that “the Trump administration is preparing to deport some Ukrainians with final removal orders to their war-torn homeland, as the government seeks to ramp up deportations and Ukraine moves to strengthen ties with Washington.”

“Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, said the embassy is aware of ‘approximately 80 Ukrainian citizens’ who have final deportation orders ‘for violating U.S. law.’ She stated that U.S. authorities were working on logistical preparations to carry out the deportations, ‘given the absence of direct international air service to Ukraine,’” writes The Washington Post . “I deserve to be deported,” says another man on the immediate deportation list, “but not to a war zone.” “How can they deport me to a place where there’s a war?” he adds, with an argument that is unlikely to convince the Trump administration, which has deported third-country nationals to South Sudan, a state on the brink of civil war. “Under international treaties, officials should not send people to countries where they may be persecuted or tortured. Even the most dangerous criminals must be protected from torture,” the newspaper notes.

For the authorities in Kyiv, the only problem with the deportations is the logistical challenge of getting the men to Ukraine. “It should be noted that deportation is a widely used legal mechanism provided for in the immigration laws of most countries in the world,” the ambassador insisted, justifying the deportation of dozens of men to a country at war. “It is a routine procedure applied to all foreigners and stateless persons who violate the terms of their stay in the United States, regardless of their nationality,” she added, perhaps referring to one of the men with a criminal record whom the Trump administration wants to deport to Ukraine: a Soviet-born Jew who arrived in the United States before the dissolution of the USSR and who, despite his efforts, was unable to obtain a Ukrainian passport. As the successor state to the Soviet Union, the most reasonable country to deport a stateless person of Soviet origin would be Russia, not Ukraine, where the man would not face an imminent risk of being drafted. His defense also argues that “not only does he face a high probability of being killed by the Russian army, but, as a Russian-speaking foreigner rather than a Ukrainian, he also faces a high probability of persecution by the Ukrainian authorities.” When necessary, accusations of discrimination against the Russian-speaking population, which are usually denied, resurface even in statements to the press.

The article notes that Russia typically refuses to cooperate with US deportations, an attitude it previously shared with Ukraine. However, circumstances have changed, and any man deemed suitable for deployment is now welcomed, regardless of whether he is a former convict or holds a Ukrainian passport. This attitude “may be shifting as Ukraine strives to repel Russian attacks, recruit soldiers, and maintain US government support,” states The Washington Post, quoting an advisor to Volodymyr Zelensky as saying, “The United States can deport as many as it wants.” “We’ll put them to good use,” he concludes. Any man of military age can be turned into cannon fodder and sent to fight in the ruins of Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, Gualiapole, or Konstantinovka.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/11/16/carne-de-canon/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
On the situation on the front lines (data from @Belarus_VPO )

In Kharkivske:
Russian troops continue to storm residential areas in the western part of Vovchansk and in the western part of Sinelnikovo, located to the south;

Russian Armed Forces have advanced in the area of ​​Tatarsky Forest.

- In Kupyansko-Limanske:
fighting is ongoing in the central part of Kupyansk, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are attempting to counterattack, but are having no success;

Russian troops have advanced towards Petrovpavlovka over an area of ​​14 square kilometers;

Russian troops are pressing the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​Yampol and are trying to break through closer to the center of the settlement

. - In Seversk:
the situation has not changed significantly, clashes continue in Dronovka and on the flanks of Seversk.

- In Konstantinovskoye:
Russian Armed Forces continue assault operations in the direction of Pleshcheyevka, in the area of ​​Nelepovka and along forest belts in the direction of Ivanpol.

— In Pokrovskoe:
in Rodinskoye, small groups of the Russian Armed Forces are infiltrating through the southern and eastern parts of the city, pressing in a westerly direction;

on the northwestern outskirts of Pokrovsk, Russian troops have dug in among the buildings on the territory of the factories and continue to move up forces and assault along the forest belts in the direction of Grishino;

on the eastern outskirts of the city, the Russian Armed Forces have dug in near Rog and are assaulting in the direction of Rivne and in the area of ​​the Dinasovy settlement;

in the southern part of Mirnohrad, the gray zone has expanded to the southeastern edge of the multi-story residential development, into which Russian infantry units are infiltrating.

— In Novopavlovske:
Russian troops, taking advantage of the weather conditions, managed to advance in the direction of Novopavlovka and gain a foothold in the residential development in the eastern part of the settlement;

the Russian Armed Forces are striving to move up forces as quickly as possible, while Ukrainian Armed Forces drone operators are actively operating along all routes to the village.

— In Gulyai-Polye:
Russian forces have advanced west of Malinovka and reached the eastern outskirts of Vesyoloye, Zelenyi Gai, and Vysokoye. They have managed to gain a foothold south of Novouspenovskoye and are attacking toward Zatishye.

— In Zaporizhzhya:
Russian forces are making tactical gains in Stepnogorsk. Ukrainian Armed Forces units have been initially blocked near their main fortified area, a sausage factory.

Russian forces continue to press Ukrainian forces in Primorskoye, also making tactical gains.

***

Colonelcassad
"Brussels is buying weapons with European money, only to send them to the military mafia with a golden toilet." (c) Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó.

And these aren't the golden toilets of the Yanukovych era. These are brand-new, corrupt ones.
However, as Zelenskyy's gang has already explained, "corruption is an integral part of the economy."

***

Colonelcassad
6:11
"Syrsky has arrived, which means it's all over, fodder. Everyone will be sent to the infantry." Anton Aleksandrovich Zaitsev,

a serviceman with the 129th Brigade,January 12, 1987, has been fighting as a volunteer since 2022. He says he was inspired to join the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the opportunity to serve in a rear unit. However, after Syrsky was appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Anton was sent to the infantry.At the time, the new commander-in-chief urgently needed "cannon fodder" for the "Kursk adventure," so our guest went to the Kursk region, where he immediately came under mortar fire and was later captured. @warriorofnorth

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – November 15th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Nov 15, 2025

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Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) to Gulyaipole (Video at link.)

Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "Assault units of the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Guards Combined Arms Army of the 'East' Group, without slowing the pace of the offensive after liberating Novouspenovskoe and Novoe, expelled the enemy from the settlement of Yablokovo in the Zaporozhye Oblast.

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Success was achieved through coordinated actions of the 'East Group units, which were able to immediately develop the offensive and capture another settlement, the ninth this month.

The Primorye troops are advancing deep into the enemy's defensive lines in the Gulyaipole direction, simultaneously clearing the interfluve. In battles for the settlement, the Ukrainian Armed Forces units lost a large number of personnel and more than a dozen vehicles."


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ЛБС 28.10.2025=Line of Combat Contact October 28th, 2025. АКТИВНОСТЬ=Activity.

Cutting the Uspenovka salient into two sectors, the Russian Armed Forces units advanced 4.5 kilometers southwest from the settlement of Novoe (liberated on 11.11.2025) and liberated the settlement of Yablokovo (47°43′44″ N, 36°19′33″ E, about 50 residents). They reached the watershed ridge of the Yanchur River and the Tselinnaya Ravine. The direct distance to the city of Gulyaipole is 7.5 kilometers.

Experts express concern that the Nazis are luring our fighters by simulating a weak defense, and then may counterattack our left flank from the "quiet" southern sector of Veseloe-Visokoe. In principle, they can. But, let's consider another interpretation – the command of the Russian group is provoking the Ukrainian Armed Forces command to stir up the quiet southern node and distract it in the area of Ravnopole-Yablokovo. And then they may initiate a strike in the AFU flank from Marfopol. (My humble interpretation.)

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Update from the translator: Ukrainian sources are now in panic over a Russian assault on Novopavlovka coming from Filiya. More updates will come!

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https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ember-15th

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Chorus of 'Corruption' as Movement to Oust Zelensky Picks Up Steam
Simplicius
Nov 14, 2025

Major efforts are stepping up to put pressure on Zelensky in what’s beginning to look like a campaign to finally evict him from power:

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Rumors are that the latest is being driven by billionaire former-sponsor Kolomoisky, who himself has just stated from his pre-trial detention that he believes Zelensky’s days are now numbered.

Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, who is in a pre-trial detention center, said after interrogations by anti-corruption agencies Ukraine that the country’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, would “soon be finished” amid the corruption case of businessman and presidential associate Timur Mindich. This was reported by the Strana newspaper, citing sources.

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https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/202 ... 6030.shtml

It seems spurned billionaires always settle the score in the end.

Now even famed Ukrainian Nazi Korchinsky has openly stated that very powerful people are preparing a Maidan against Zelensky: (Video at link.)

“Serious people are preparing a Maidan against Zelensky,” — the leader of Ukrainian Nazis.

This is happening because of the corruption scandal with the “Mindich case,” claims the leader of the Nazi-terrorists Korchinsky, who are part of the GUR structure.

“As for street protests, they are already being prepared, a Maidan is being prepared, street riots are being prepared, an attempt to undermine the front is being prepared. And serious people are already involved in this. In particular, mayors of some cities or former mayors of cities are involved. The same Trukhanov is involved,” he emphasized.


We had already speculated, when the NABU controversy first began, that this was an obvious ploy by the powers-that-be to create an instrument within the Ukrainian state by which they can remove an intransigent Zelensky when needed. Zelensky himself was obviously wise to this and tried to de-fang these “anti-corruption” authorities, which immediately spurred Maidan-like protests, forcing him to back down.

The only question, as usual, is what precisely do these hidden forces seek to gain by potentially booting Zelensky? It’s not like a successor could change the tide of the war against Russia. Some options include: perhaps they merely want to reset society’s ill-will by putting in a new figurehead to boost morale for the continuation of the war. Or perhaps they want to find someone more amenable to launching full blown mobilization of the 18+ cohort to really supercharge Ukraine’s war of attrition against Russia. There are many other possibilities as well.

Now, in the gradual erosion of the Western pro-Ukrainian bloc’s position in the war, even Rubio has admitted the US is running out of options in regard to further Russian sanctions:

The United States has almost completely exhausted its options for imposing new anti-Russian sanctions, US Secretary of State Rubio stated.

He noted that Washington has already taken measures against Russia’s largest oil companies and added: “I don’t know what else needs to be done.”
(Video at link.)

In the meantime, Russia continues its campaign of destroying what remains of Ukraine’s power grid. As of this writing another massive ballistic missile attack targeted Kiev’s thermal power plants.

Hell in Kyiv: “Iskanders” struck Kyiv’s CHP plants, power outages in the capital of Ukraine

Kiev last night: all of the capital’s Combined Heat and Power Plants and substations hit.

CHP-4, CHP-5, CHP-6, Bila Tserkva CHP. Capital substations were also hit.

Over 20 Kinzhal, Iskander and cruise missiles as well as more than 100 UAVs also arrived in Kiev.


It was reported the attack lasted hours:

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Some videos gave an inkling of the ferocity of the attack: (Video at link.)

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Photos of spent Patriot booster stages were seen, but apparently the missiles did little against the hypersonic Kinzhal barrage. That’s not to mention given what we now know, there’s good chance the Patriots themselves were hit, or will be soon.

Marco Rubio himself had just somewhat astoundingly admitted in the same interview as the above clip that AD systems delivered to Ukraine are usually wiped out by Russian strikes within a week of being brought in: (Video a t link.)




Let us turn to the battlefield where Ukraine’s collapse on the Zaporozhye front in particular is only accelerating.

Things have moved so fast that Gulyaipole is already nearing encirclement:

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Ukrainian MP Marina Bezugla writes:

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More top Ukrainian military accounts comment on the disastrously collapsing situation:

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A Ukrainian officer writes:

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This report from the official Ukrainian sector forces is interesting. It lists Russian casualties as “heavy”, with 58 KIAs in a single day over the entire vast front:

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If you consider the fact that both sides—particularly from the official leadership accounts—inflate enemy losses, we can assume the 58 to probably realistically be 20-30, if not less. That amount of KIA for the second most active front of the entire war is not exactly what I’d call “heavy” casualties. Using that as a rubric, we can assume total Russian daily casualties really are in the 100-200 range that we’d long estimated. If the front with the fastest Russian advances is experiencing such few casualties, then what are less active fronts in Kupyansk, Seversk, Lyman, etc., experiencing?

Footage of Russia’s liberation of Danilovka:

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ENG: “UNITS OF THE “VOSTOK” TROOP GROUP HAVE LIBERATED THE SETTLEMENT OF DANILOVKA❗️

🔸Guards of the 5th Tank Brigade of the 36th Army of the “Vostok” troop group decisively, with a combination of fire and maneuver, drove the enemy out of the settlement of Danilovka in the Dnipropetrovsk region and advanced 3 km deep into the enemy’s defense.

🔸The liberation of the settlement was complicated by the presence of serious defensive structures on the southern outskirts of Danilovka, consisting of anti-tank obstacles (ditches, tetrahedrons), minefields, and fortified firing points. In addition, the settlement is protected from the north by the Yanchur river. However, none of this prevented the Warriors from Buryatia from decisively and boldly breaking the enemy’s resistance in the shortest possible time.

🔸Thus, the clearing of the western bank of the Yanchur river continues on all fronts, and the enemy is retreating with heavy losses towards Gaichur.

🔸In the battles for the settlement, the enemy from the 154th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost not only about a company of personnel but also a large amount of armored equipment - more than 12 units (self-propelled artillery, tanks, armored combat vehicles).

🔸As a result, more than 150 buildings were cleared of enemy presence.
(Video at link.)

Also, in terms of casualties, note above the official Russian report relays Ukraine’s casualties as a full company of men just in the battles for Danilovka alone. A company should be 100 men, but let’s just say for Ukraine it’s 50 due to their manpower shortage. This is 50 men lost for a single settlement versus the Ukrainian claim of 58 Russians lost in the entire front comprising dozens of settlements. I leave it to the reader to decide which side’s claims are the more reliable.

Just northeast of there, Russian forces made a breakthrough in Novopavlovka, penetrating deeper into the town and capturing a large swath of it:

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In fact, some new reports claim that the breakthrough is much deeper and most of the town is already captured, so do not be surprised to see it fall by next update.

In Pokrovsk, the situation is that the city of Pokrovsk itself is virtually entirely captured, though not yet fully swept and secured, with Mirnograd now being penetrated from both the south and northeast:

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The reason such seeming encirclements do not result in complete or instantaneous collapses in modern warfare—as they would in the past—is because with the advent of drones, the trapped garrison can still receive ample resupply via the larger Baba Yaga type drones, which can regularly drop ammunition, food, and water to the besieged troops. A French reporter recently visited the Ukrainian front and implied the majority of supplies were already being delivered by large drone there:

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Of course, even this has its limits and will not allow them to hold too much longer.

A fascinating Russian write-up on the Pokrovsk situation which describes the new style of modern ‘shadow warfare’ taking place there—from veteran Russian frontline reporter Alexander Kharchenko:

Battle of Shadows

Ukrainian analysts on the maps have almost completely painted Pokrovsk red. But yesterday Zelensky stated that there are only 314 Russians inside the city. Let’s try to understand this paradox.

No, the Russian army has not been ground down by the Ukrainian defense. Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are operating near Pokrovsk. You can see this if you get on a van-cabriolet and drive northwest from Selidovo. There are many vehicles. But if you look at Pokrovsk through a drone camera, you will hardly notice any soldiers. The fighting for the city is ongoing, but it is not engulfed in flames, and machine gun bursts are heard very rarely.

Both sides keep their main forces 10 km from the city. Drones control all approaches, and only the most desperate daredevils can get through this barrier alive. So it turns out that inside Pokrovsk only the shadows of the two armies, which stand on its outskirts, are fighting. Zelensky clearly underestimates the Russian forces, but you will no longer see an assault in the spirit of Bakhmut. There are fewer soldiers in the city than civilians. Three people can storm one street, and the most interesting thing is that they will be fighting against three similar enemy soldiers. And all this happens in front of a dozen grandmothers and grandfathers who did not want to leave the city.

When you imagine this picture, you will stop tormenting yourself with meaningless questions. War has changed and it no longer resembles a Hollywood action movie. This battle of shadows still needs to be described in literature. Meanwhile, we need to accept reality and study the vectors of its development.

Pokrovsk is 95% taken by the Russian army, but the complete encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Mirnograd has not happened.

Building both the outer and inner rings with a front movement speed of about 5 kilometers per month and kill zones of 15-20 kilometers is practically impossible.

The current discussion is about cutting off logistics, but for Mirnograd, logistics have been cut off for quite some time. However, the fact that the Russian Armed Forces are still holding in the breakthrough zone near Dobropillya, supplied by drones, shows that even in such a situation, it is not easy to dislodge the enemy. But, as I have already written, sitting in encirclement can make sense if there is some practical purpose. For example, gaining time to set up the next defensive line, preparing reserves in the rear, or at least having negotiations imminent.

However, the only reason Zelensky has not given the order to retreat is politics, and he himself admitted this. The President of Ukraine had a rather awkward meeting with the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Hnatov, who vaguely mumbled that the Russians had indeed slipped into Pokrovsk, and decisions would be made by the military command. This sounded like a hint that the situation is under control and that the military, not politicians, are making the decisions.

But he said this immediately after Zelensky’s comment, who was sitting right opposite:
I think Russia, with this story about Pokrovsk, is trying to show success on the battlefield. Then they might try to revive the narrative that we will capture Donbass. [...] This is a factor that could influence the imposition or delay of sanctions.
This is how the President of Ukraine sees the situation; from his point of view, it is absolutely unacceptable to let the Russian Armed Forces capture Pokrovsk because it would be an argument for Trump to agree to Putin’s terms, and it could also delay sanctions. Therefore, he does not care about Hnatov’s opinion (if he even has one), who lies that decisions will be made by the military, not political leadership. Although this meeting in the presence of the press showed who and why makes the decisions.

But now, staying in Mirnograd threatens the destruction of two strong brigades. We do not doubt that they can organize an orderly exit from the city and will have this opportunity for a long time, but by staying in the city, they suffer losses. Not only direct losses but also because there is no way to evacuate the wounded. Supplies can be delivered by drones, but they do not yet transport people. And the later the retreat, the greater the losses will be, unless the Ukrainian Armed Forces can unblock Mirnograd from the north. There is such a chance, but it is, to put it mildly, not one hundred percent.

Does Zelensky understand that he can now buy some time at the cost of extra losses and already scarce infantry, but in the longer term lose much more? Most likely, he does not. And Pokrovsk may become the place where Ukraine lost the war.

Military analytics


Further north, Russian forces have closed in on Seversk to the point where the city is reaching its final brink before full penetration:

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In the far north, Kupyansk saw a major Ukrainian counterattack with the purpose of relieving pressure on the city. This initially chewed off a piece of the Russian flank at the spot circled in yellow below, but it did not prevent Russian forces from advancing throughout the last southernmost portions of the city and capturing most of the remains there:

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A note on this ‘counteroffensive’:

Yes, reserves (AFU) were brought into battle, including those that were located several months ago in the border territories of Chernigov and Sumy regions. The “counteroffensive” on the Kupiansk front began three days ago but has not brought significant success. Currently, the Russian Armed Forces units continue to face enemy counterattacks while simultaneously occupying more and more territory within the city itself.

The hasty counteroffensive on two fronts is a typical tactic of “containing betrayal” in Ukrainian society – the result is not important here, but the image, like “we are doing at least something,” despite the collapsing directions. At the same time, the position of enemy units in Kostyantynovka continues to be unstable – day by day, Russian assault troops advance forward, and directed urban battles similar to those in Pokrovsk and Kupiansk are already visible on the horizon. However, the enemy command sends reserves to the main “betrayal” directions precisely because they are more popular in the media than Kostyantynovka.

Meanwhile, the work continues...




Some last items:

The devastating power of Russian glide-bombs continues to be demonstrated. Here the Fab-3000 makes it clear how untenable it is for Ukrainian troops to hold static city positions for long: (Video at link.)

Meanwhile, Ukrainian sources state Russia is on track to manufacture a mind-numbing 120,000 glide-bombs in the coming year:

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This equates to 10,000 a month, or 333 per day—which is simply staggering.



Ukrainian manpower woes continue:

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Recently, a top Ukrainian figure—former leader of the Kiev branch of Azov—stated that in a newly formed brigade, there were already 3,000 ‘SZCh’ before the brigade was even formed:

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SZCh is самовільне залишення частини” (self-willed leaving of the unit), or in other words, AWOL. Given that a Ukrainian brigade likely only has 3,000 - 3,500 people tops, this figure would represent virtually the entire brigade.

That said, many or most SZCh end up being forcibly brought back—though their morale after that point would likely be ‘questionable’, to say the least.



Russia has launched a new quiet mobilization that many have not heard of. This time it is a mobilization of reservists but only for the purpose of acting as anti-air troops on the Russian territory, to defend against UAVs targeting energy infrastructure:

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Lastly, on the topic of mobilization some may recall that I had opined several weeks ago that the reason Russia’s recruitment payouts had dropped was not because it was “running out of money”, as the pro-UA crowd crowed, but rather that Russia was likely exceeding its recruitment numbers and no longer needed to pay such exorbitant amounts. Well, what do you know—I was right, and here it’s even confirmed by the ‘venerable’ pro-Ukrainian analyst Michael Kofman


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https://x.com/jakluge/status/1988199587228836242

German think-tanker Janis Kluge writes:

My latest post also discusses why several regions lowered their sign-on bonuses. These regions are “recruitment overachievers” who could afford to focus on fixing their budgets.

Of course, it’s still couched in the specious framing that these ‘overachievers’ are secondarily lowering the bonuses to “fix their budgets” in order to inject at least some negative aspect or angle to the clearly “inconvenient” datapoint. It has nothing to do with “fixing their budgets”: they merely surpassed their recruitment goals and no longer needed to pay extra—simple as that, without the fat.

We leave off with the latest Charlie Hebdo cover:

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https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/cho ... s-movement

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Kiev’s corruption cesspit is dragging the complicit EU down with it

November 14, 2025

The criminal proxy war is destroying its Western architects and sponsors.

The latest scandal involves $100 million in graft by senior Ukrainian government ministers and Zelensky’s friend, known as “his wallet”. The racketeering and Western complicity account for why this war drags on, with thousands of Ukrainian casualties every week.

The thieves in Kiev are only the scum that float to the surface. The real criminals are the Western so-called leaders who have enabled the entire war racket, a racket that bleeds Western societies and which is no longer concealable.

Even Western media are openly reporting the brazen corruption of the Kiev regime, with many commentators questioning how long the nominal president, Vladimir Zelensky, can remain in office, given the mire of sleaze engulfing him.

The Western media – in hock to their governments’ political agenda – have always played down the rampant corruption in Kiev, even though official U.S. and European auditing officials have at times flagged up the issue as a matter of grave concern. The European Union itself has half-admitted there is an endemic problem by insisting on reforms to clean up corruption as a condition for Ukraine joining the bloc in the future.

Up to now, the audacious racketeering in Kiev has been partly covered up by Western media claiming that it was “Russian propaganda” to smear Ukraine and its NATO sponsors. Well, it turns out that the rank thieving and money laundering in Kiev is not Russian propaganda. It is a fact that even the Western media can no longer ignore.

Still, the cover-up continues somewhat. Incredibly, Western governments and media are continuing to tolerate Zelensky and his cronies crying for more money, instead of demanding his resignation.

Four months ago, Zelensky, who has cancelled elections and made himself president indefinitely, tried to curb Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies by removing their independent powers. That blatant move sparked mass protests, and he had to backtrack quickly amid public outcry.

This week, the same agencies uncovered the biggest corruption scandal yet in Ukraine’s long history of graft. The country’s energy sector was being milked by embezzlement and kickback schemes implicating senior ministers, industry chiefs, and a personal friend and business associate of Zelensky, who has fled overseas.

The justice minister, German Galuschenko, and energy minister Svetlana Grinchuk have had to quit pending an investigation. The alleged mastermind of the embezzlement is Timur Mindich, who fled the country before being arrested. He is a friend and business partner of Zelensky, who has gotten rich on government contracts since Zelensky became president in 2019, after laughably promising voters that he would eradicate Kiev’s notorious corruption.

The latest scheme involved contractors, who are tendering to build protection infrastructure for the country’s power industry, paying massive kickbacks to regime chiefs and business heads.

As the country suffers blackouts from the energy sector being hit by the war with Russia, it transpires that the problem has been greatly exacerbated by the Kiev regime being too busy siphoning off money rather than protecting the industry to serve citizens. The scandal is all the more grotesque as the nation faces mid-winter shortages and its soldiers are being killed amid collapsing frontlines in the east of the country.

Since the NATO proxy war against Russia escalated in February 2022, it is estimated that the United States and the European Union have pumped around $400 billion of Western taxpayers’ money into Ukraine. Western citizens have been bled dry by this war racket, which has enriched the military-industrial complex while paying off the Kiev regime.

President Donald Trump seems to have grown leery of the racket. Under his presidency, Washington has scaled back the money supply. Not so the European elite who keep pumping public money into the cesspit.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán pointed out the madness of the EU leadership for insisting on throwing more money into Ukraine in light of the “mafia” under Zelensky. Orbán said his country is refusing to donate any more funds to Ukraine.

No doubt other European states are taking note of the despicable, criminal farce. As EU citizens endure increasing economic hardship from austerity and mounting living costs, their political leadership insists on supporting Ukraine in a futile proxy war.

This war should never have started and could have been avoided if the U.S. and European governments had engaged in diplomatic efforts with Russia. The NATO powers wanted a proxy war, and they, along with the servile media, concocted a fairytale narrative about “brave, noble” Ukraine fighting for supposed Western values against “Russian aggression.”

The conflict has persisted for nearly four years. European economies have been wrecked, and up to 2 million Ukrainian soldiers have been slaughtered – all for the Russophobic fantasy among NATO ideologues to “defeat Russia”.

The war has been a senseless bloodbath that has been sustained by Western lies and extortion of the Western public to prop up a corrupt regime in Kiev.

Now the corruption of the racket has become so putrid, it can no longer be covered up.

It is becoming politically precarious for Euro leaders to make the case for funneling more public funds to a regime that is siphoning off that money.

Hence, the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, and her coterie of Russophobic elites, are proposing that billions will be routed to Ukraine not with public funds but with frozen Russian assets. As if that would make it any less criminal.

This week, Von der Leyen appealed to the European Parliament that €140 billion of Russian funds confiscated by the EU should be used as collateral for loans to Ukraine. These insane warmongers don’t know when to stop.

In the end, it’s fitting justice. The criminal proxy war is destroying its Western architects and sponsors. The Kiev cesspit is dragging them down. Good riddance.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... n-with-it/

******

Gulyaypole in safety
November 15, 9:03 PM

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Field fortifications ( https://t.me/opor_2014/20235 ) covering Hulyaipole from the east and northeast.

Note that Yablokovo is already under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, and our troops reached the outskirts of Zatishie today. This effectively indicates that our troops routinely overcame the main line of Ukrainian Armed Forces field fortifications covering Hulyaipole from the east.

To the north, the Pokrovskoye-Hulyaipole road is already physically cut near Danilovka. The bridge over Pokrovskoye was demolished two weeks ago. Near Huliaipole, drones are burning enemy equipment on the roads, isolating this section of the front. As soon as Huliaipole is further encircled from the north, we can expect more active operations from the east and south to tighten the grip around the city.

Bezuglaya continues to hysterically predict the Ukrainian Armed Forces' retreat from the city and its surrender, but of course, blaming Syrsky, who has become Zelenskyy's gang's usual scapegoat for all failures on the front, rather than the cocaine-fueled Führer.

P.S. Towards evening, good news is still coming from Novopavlovka (partly our fault) and the Velykymykhaylivka area. The junction of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions continues to provide consistently good news from the front. Without additional reserves, the enemy can hardly hope to stabilize the front in this sector. But they need to be drawn from somewhere.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10189082.html

The Hedgehog system
November 16, 9:58

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The "Hedgehog" anti-drone defense systems, fashionable in 2025, are replacing the Mangal Tsars and Saray Tsars.
In this case, the "Hedgehog" is combined with DZ blocks and frontal chains.

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https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10189387.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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blindpig
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Nov 17, 2025 12:51 pm

Rubicon and the fight for the skies of the front
Published by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/17/2025

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Among the many texts and constant pronouncements that, without offering the slightest evidence, insist on the immense Russian casualties in the approach to Pokrovsk—100,000 losses between dead and wounded according to Zelensky, 20,000 dead according to the British think tank RUSI, which provides a figure that lacks any credibility—several articles recently published by Western media acknowledge Russia's capacity to adapt to the conditions of war. This is evident considering that, since the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, Ukraine has never managed to regain the initiative. Comparing the battle for Avdeevka in February 2024 and the current fight for Pokrovsk-Krasnoarmeisk, Foreign Policy indicates that “beyond superficial similarities, analysts say Russian forces are making remarkable progress in adapting to drone warfare in urban operations, which could have implications for Russia's ability to conquer more territory if Pokrovsk falls.” “The battle for Pokrovsk is really the first time we are seeing what large-scale drone warfare means in an urban context,” the article continues, quoting Kateryna Stepanenko of the Institute for the Study of War, a neoconservative think tank widely cited in Western military analysis of this conflict.

Studying the day-to-day realities of the war reveals the shift that has occurred since the early days of the Russian invasion, from the widespread use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to the current standard equipment of any self-respecting brigade on both sides of the front line. It is also clear that, despite constant Ukrainian and Western propaganda about Ukraine's ingenuity and capacity for drone development and production, Russia has made up for lost time, overcome its previous lag in drone manufacturing, and, thanks in part to collaboration with Iran and access to Chinese parts and tools, Russian air superiority is no longer limited solely to aircraft and missiles.

In an environment saturated with drones from both sides, Foreign Policy admits that “Russia has simply learned to maneuver its infantry across the battlefield, where Ukrainian drones can operate beyond twelve miles from the front line.” The outcome of the current attacks and the difficulties Ukraine is experiencing in various areas along the line of contact indicate something the Western press prefers not to acknowledge: that Ukraine has not adapted to the new conditions as effectively as Russia.

Although it acknowledges that drone use is not the only area in which Russia has improved, the Foreign Policy article focuses on this aspect—always without alluding to Russian superiority over Ukrainian and Western capabilities—to try to explain the current situation of Russian threat in numerous areas. As can be observed daily, the Russian tactic consists of pressuring Ukraine along the entire front and exploiting weaknesses at every turn, forcing Ukraine to mobilize resources and reserves, generally at the cost of leaving other areas exposed. This is how Russia advanced on Dobropilia, and when Ukraine focused on retaking that territory, it advanced rapidly on Pokrovsk. Taking advantage of these opportunities, in recent hours Russian troops have captured the town of Novovasilovskoye, where Ukraine has agreed to withdraw, albeit “to more favorable positions.” Despite the insults they have endured due to their initial poor performance and thanks to constant propaganda that has instilled in the collective consciousness an idea of ​​Ukrainian superiority bordering on 19th-century scientific racism, one of the key differentiating factors is the superior condition of the Russian infantry. “In conjunction with these infantry attacks, Russia is also increasingly focusing on identifying and eliminating Ukrainian drone operators, according to Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute,” writes Foreign Policy , citing one of the most frequently cited Western experts on this war. Lee points to an important aspect. “Russia has identified Ukrainian drone capabilities and equipment as the center of gravity of the Ukrainian military,” the expert states, adding that “Ukraine is increasingly reliant on these operators, as its own infantry is understaffed.”

“To pursue them, Russia sends in infiltration teams to eliminate them, in addition to using drones, airdropped bombs, and artillery,” he stated. “The focus is so intense that Russian artillery now targets Ukrainian drone teams more frequently than Ukrainian infantry,” he added. “In turn, attacks on Ukrainian drones can help Russian soldiers advance. At least some Russian commanders synchronize attacks on drone teams with infantry movements,” Kasapoglu added. “They are trying to create windows of opportunity to maneuver,” he explained. The article continues, emphasizing that in the current war, drone teams are even more important than artillerymen, a sign of the shift that has occurred in the last three and a half years.

Russian drone units, Foreign Policy adds , “have worked to strangle Ukrainian logistics by attacking vehicles moving toward Pokrovsk,” thereby “isolating sectors of the front line, pinning down units, cutting off their supplies, and weakening their ability to defend themselves against Russian attacks.” Beneath the layers of propaganda that conceal pro-Russian information in Western articles, a key aspect finally emerges. “Behind Russia’s growing drone dominance lies increased investment in specialized formations, such as the elite Rubicon drone unit.” These units, it continues, “use a combination of reconnaissance and attack drones to destroy their targets by crashing an explosive payload into them.” Although Foreign Policy describes the essence of the Rubicon unit in this way, one must turn to alternative media that follow the day-to-day of the war in a different way to understand the importance of the unit and the difficulties it is causing for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and, above all, for the drone units that, at the beginning of the conflict, did not expect in any way to be surpassed by the then backward Russian forces.

“The Russian Rubicon unit literally started just a year ago, in August 2024. During this time, they have destroyed thousands of pieces of equipment and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and have killed or maimed our people. Because of them, we are becoming increasingly blind: reconnaissance UAVs, aircraft, and bombers are being constantly destroyed. And most importantly: our crews,” wrote Maria Berlinska last August, as quoted on Peter Korotaev’s blog, Events in Ukraine , which describes her as an “ultramilitary drone expert.” “You can have even a billion drones, but at this stage of the war, drones are not autonomous. Without operators, drones are pointless. And more and more of our operators are being eliminated,” Berlinska continued, describing circumstances currently being observed in Pokrovsk, where experts like Rob Lee warn that Russian soldiers who have infiltrated Pokrovsk have specifically focused on pursuing drone operators as an essential part of the battle for airspace control.

“Rubicon has brilliant leadership, operates systematically, has the best personnel selection and training, and is fully equipped with everything necessary. They are flush with cash. Now they are actively expanding. From a unit of several hundred people, they are growing to thousands to cover the entire front,” Berlinska insisted, possibly exaggerating the resources available to the Russian unit, but reflecting the respect, or fear, that it has inspired in Ukrainian units practically since its formation, as Korotaev has been demonstrating for a year with his translations of texts published by Ukrainian soldiers and commanders who have faced it.

In the same vein as Berlinska, another well-known nationalist soldier specializing in fundraising, Okesandr Karpyuk, expressed his dissatisfaction with the situation in the summer. “I didn’t anticipate the emergence of specialized drone units (Rubicon and others). I must admit they really changed the balance on the battlefield. Under cover of vegetation, the Rubicon units brought tactical radars to the first echelon (up to 10 km deep),” he admitted, adding that “these units systematically coordinated with SIGINT [signals intelligence or interception of communications between people or devices] and electronic warfare assets. This synergy has proven extremely effective. Enemy air defense crews prevented us from extending attacks to echelons 2 and 3. You can’t assign targets 20-30 km from the front line if your wings are being shot down 3-7 km away. Our ‘wings’ started falling, and we simply don’t have as many as the Russians. The limitation of long-range reconnaissance has affected us greatly.”

“Rubikon. When this Russian unmanned systems unit advances toward our defensive line, sleep is over. And when they reach their positions, that's over too. Logistics go out the window. In case anyone doesn't know, it's an elite Russian unit of unmanned aerial vehicles. Something like our 'Madyar Birds,' but the similarity is only 'sort of.' That's about it. If we compare them in terms of technology and resources, it's like an 80s UAZ versus a 2026 Mercedes. And in this comparison, the Madyars are no Mercedes,” another Ukrainian soldier wrote more recently.

Judging by the words of those facing Russian troops on the ground, and not those who observe events from a distance and prefer to summarize everything with simplistic ideas such as Russia using human hordes sent to their deaths until it manages to advance on a town, what is happening on the front lines is a hand-to-hand fight in which, in terms of drones, Russian elite units surpass Ukrainian ones in number, funding, and resources—something that could be deduced from comparing the size of Russia and Ukraine—but also in coordination capacity, message interception, and, most importantly, tactics.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/11/17/rubic ... el-frente/

Google Translator

******

FRom Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The front collapses near Hulyaipole.

The "East" group of forces is advancing on a broad front, advancing in several sectors simultaneously in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions .

Assault units of the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army have liberated the village of Gai . Russian flags have been raised there, and attacks are continuing further north and west.

🔻Where else are there successes ?

▪️In the area to the east, fighters from the "Vostok" group are advancing north of Volchye toward Tikhye . Several forest belts have come under control.


▪️South of Danilovka, the enemy has been driven out of several forest belts on the approaches to Nechayevka , Radostnoye , and Novoye Zaporizhzhya . The offensive there also continues.

▪️Several strongholds and pockets created by the push toward Sladkoye after the liberation of Uspenovka have been cleared in the vicinity of Sladkoye . Now, the enemy is being cleared from the fields further toward the Gaichur River .

▪️An offensive is also underway westward from Rivnepillia and Yablokovo , toward Varvarovka . There, Russian units will likely form a pincer movement to encircle Hulyaipole .

▪️Progress has also been made in the eastern advance toward Huliaipole itself . Russian units have managed to secure a foothold on the outskirts of Vesyoly and Zelenyi Gai , and have also advanced toward Chervony . The Ukrainian Armed Forces had previously been driven from the fields to the north.


Almost the entire East Zaporizhzhia direction is advancing , and the enemy's situation is rapidly deteriorating. As we expected, Ukrainian formations are attempting to establish a defense along the Gaichur River .

Judging by the pace of the "Vostok" advance, the enemy has managed to withdraw at least some units and withdraw them across the river. Those remaining in the "interfluve" have effectively been abandoned as suicide bombers, trying to buy time to saturate the Gaichur defense .

Meanwhile , Russian units are not only approaching Hulyaipole from the north but are also pressing in from the east, where the enemy has established fortifications. From Yablokovo, it is entirely possible to advance through these fortifications, which would avoid a frontal assault on the defensive line on the way to Hulyaipole .

The only question is whether the enemy will decide to hold on to Makhno's homeland, which has considerable political significance— its strategic importance has already been practically lost —or whether it will not attempt to do so and will withdraw its forces behind a second line of defense, which has already been breached by Russian units in another sector .

@rybar in collaboration with @voin_dv

***

Colonelcassad
0:43
ROSGVARDIA MOBILE GROUPS SHOOTING DRONES OF THE UKRAINIAN ARMY IN THE BORDER AREA EVERY DAY.

In the Belgorod Region alone, Rosgvardia units shot down over 100 Ukrainian Armed Forces drones with small arms fire in just one month, including approximately 70 fixed-wing UAVs and over 30 multi-rotor FPV drones.
For example, one day, a massive overflight of enemy fixed-wing UAVs was detected over several districts of the region. Rosgvardia mobile fire teams quickly deployed to the likely flight paths of the UAVs. As a result of the fire teams' effective work, over 20 enemy UAVs were hit with small arms fire. The UAVs detonated outside populated areas, after which bomb disposal experts examined the wreckage.
Nighttime footage shows Rosgvardia mobile fire teams shooting down fixed-wing attack drones during a massive Ukrainian Armed Forces attack on the Bryansk Region. Six UAVs were shot down in one incident. An inspection of the wreckage sites revealed fragments of airframes, engines, and submunitions. There were no injuries or damage.
This month, Rosgvardia mobile fire teams have destroyed more than 10 Ukrainian Armed Forces UAVs in the Bryansk Region.

@Morskaya_pehota_Russia

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*****

Brief Frontline Report – November 16th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Nov 16, 2025

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Report from the Russian Ministry of Defense: "In the settlement of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) in the Donetsk People's Republic, assault groups of the 2nd Army continued the destruction of encircled Ukrainian Armed Forces formations in the western part of the city, the northwestern and eastern quarters of the Central district, as well as in the territory of the western industrial zone. Clearing of the settlement of Rovnoe in the Donetsk People's Republic from Ukrainian militants is underway.

Six attacks by units of the 425th Assault Regiment 'Skala' of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the area of the settlement of Grishino in the Donetsk People's Republic aimed at breaking the encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group were repelled.

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The blue arrows curving back on themselves represent repelled AFU counterattacks.

An attempt by a unit of the 155th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to break out of the encirclement ring to the north was thwarted.

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Up to 30 Ukrainian servicemen and an infantry fighting vehicle were destroyed.

In the settlement of Dimitrov (Mirnograd) in the Donetsk People's Republic, units of the 51st Army continue offensive actions in the Vostochny microdistrict and the southern part of the city.

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Assault groups of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade have approached the Zapadny microdistrict closely. 33 buildings have been liberated."

Report from the Russian Ministry of Defense: "Units of the 'East' Group, as a result of decisive actions, liberated the settlement of Ravnopole in the Zaporozhye Oblast.

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ЛБС 28.10.2025=Line of Combat Contact October 28th, 2025. АКТИВНОСТЬ=Activity.

Defeat was inflicted on the formations of two assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Gulyaipole, Pokrovskoe in the Zaporozhye Oblast, and Gerasimovka and Orly (Orli on the map) in the Dnepropetrovsk region."

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Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) to Gulyaipole.

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Without losing momentum, units of the Russian Armed Forces continue to wedge into the interfluve of the Yanchur and Gaichur rivers in the center of the Uspenovka salient, in the direction of the city of Gulyaipole. The settlement of Ravnopole (47°44′39″ N, 36°19′08″ E, about 370 inhabitants) has been liberated.

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We will make a small clarification regarding the name of the village. On many channels, including the Russian Ministry of Defense, the name "Rovnopole" is encountered. Wikipedia hints that "In some documents, the village is called Ravnopole. There are 4 settlements named Rovnopole in Ukraine." This "some document," in particular, is the topographic map of the General Staff of the USSR Armed Forces L-37-001, published in 1991, where the settlement is named Ravnopole. We proceed from this document.

Having liberated Ravnopole, the Russian Armed Forces expanded the front along the Ravnopole-Yablokovo line to 2.5 kilometers and gained control over the entrance to the Tselinnaya ravine. A wide bridgehead for advancing to the watershed of the Tselinnaya ravine - Stalinsky ponds - Gaichur river. With a deep encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces defense node to the south (Veseloe-Visokoe). Also, the possibility of advancing along the Tselinnaya ravine to the Ukrainian Armed Forces defense area Dobropole-Varvarivka.

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Report from the Russian Ministry of Defense: "Units of the 'Dnepr' Group have completed the liberation of the settlement Malaya Tokmachka in the Zaporozhye region."

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ЛБС 03.3.2025=Line of Combat Contact March 3rd, 2025. Активность=Activity.

Throughout the developments in the Zaporozhye region in the interfluve of the Yanchur and Gaichur rivers (Gulyaipole sector), westward near the positional area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Orekhov (Orehov on the map), our units advanced. They actively operated in the area of the settlement Stepnogorsk (on the western borders of Zaporozhye, the left flank of the Orekhov sector). On the right flank of this sector, our units occupied advantageous lines for an offensive from the settlement Novopokrovka towards the city of Orekhov.

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The sector is complex, well-developed, and militarily equipped. It should be noted that this was the main area of the Nazi counteroffensive in 2023.

On November 16, the settlement Malaya Tokmachka (47°32′15″ N, 35°53′53″ E, about 3,000 inhabitants) was liberated. It is a major transport hub through which a highway and railway pass. The village stretches almost 9 kilometers from east to west. The Konka River flows to the north. On the western outskirts, just before the eastern districts of the city of Orekhov (about 2 kilometers away), there is a large area of marshland. The enemy has equipped an extensive anti-tank ditch running from north to south. Two kilometers to the south are enemy positions in the settlement Novodanilovka. The combat zone is complex, and to overcome it, neighboring sectors will likely be activated.

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https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ember-16th

******

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Azov Battalion in Kyiv Photo: Sopa Images / SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty

Keeping up with Ukraine’s Nazis
Originally published: Antiwar.com on November 13, 2025 by Scott Horton and John Weeks (more by Antiwar.com) (Posted Nov 14, 2025)
Culture, IdeologyEurope, UkraineNewswire
Washington D.C.’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine continues to grind up lives. Increasingly, the war looks like an indefinite hellscape, though there have been bright moments of hope. U.S. President Donald Trump has at times seemed sincerely committed to ending the war. In August, he hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin at a diplomatic summit in Anchorage, Alaska. It was encouraging to watch an American leader at least treat the head of a state which possesses 6,000 nuclear weapons with basic respect.

Unfortunately, Trump and his administration either don’t fully grasp the fundamentals of the conflict or have deemed it politically unacceptable to base their policy on that reality. Part of that reality involves the presence of actual Nazis within the upper echelons of the Ukrainian military, something that is intolerable to Russia and may prove deeply problematic for Washington.

The White House has settled on demanding Russia accept an immediate ceasefire and have promised to continue funding and arming Ukraine and sanctioning Russia until it submits. On Oct. 22 the U.S. Treasury Department announced new rounds of sanctions:

Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire. Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine.

Of course, it may be unadvisable for Russia to agree to such a ceasefire, something that could amount to just a Minsk 3-style new course stabilization and rearming period for Ukraine. Russian officials have repeatedly made this clear. On Oct. 21, a day before the new sanctions were imposed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said there would be no cessation of hostilities until the “root causes” of the conflict are addressed:

I mean ensuring Ukraine’s off-bloc, neutral, nuclear-free status, which means abandoning any attempts to drag it into NATO. I mean ending the actual genocide of the Russian and Russian-speaking population the Kiev regime has been practicing since even before Mr. [Vladimir] Zelensky came to power, when it banned all potential rights of the national minority Russians are formally recognized in Ukraine. As a matter of fact, most of Ukraine’s population speaks and thinks in Russian, but the Russian language has been banned in all spheres of life. An absolutely Nazi regime.

Accusing Ukraine of being a Nazi regime has been a consistent Russian talking point since 2014, when D.C. engineered a coup in Kiev. As Russia escalated the conflict with its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin said one of the “special military operation” objectives was “to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.”

Unfortunately for the West, this Russian talking point is not mere propaganda. Ukraine is filled with Hitler-loving, racial “social nationalists” who descend both biologically and ideologically from men who directly collaborated with the Third Reich, participated in the Holocaust, and sought to create a fascist Ukrainian state. Many of them have prominent positions within the current government and are celebrated figures within Ukrainian society. Let’s catch up with some of these celebrity Nazis.

Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky (Commander of Ukraine’s Third Army Corps “Azov,” [formerly known as the Azov Battalion, Azov Brigade and 3rd Separate Infantry Division] 46 years-old).

Andriy Biletsky is known as “White Leader” or “White Chief” by his men. He is Washington’s latest version of a “moderate rebel,” an anti-democratic, Nazi warlord who the West pretends is defending democracy against autocracy.

This is propagandistic fantasy. Biletsky once gave a speech entitled “Ukrainian Racial Social Nationalism” in which he declared:

The main mystical idea of Social Nationalism is the creation, instead of a bunch of disparate individuals, mechanically united by the name ‘Ukrainians’ and the presence of a Ukrainian passport, the National Supercommunity—a single biological organism that will consist of New People—physically, intellectually and spiritually developed persons. From the mass of individuals should appear Nation, and from the weak modern man—the Superman.

Social-Nationalism relies on a number of fundamental principles that clearly distinguish it from other right-wing movements. This is a kind of triad: sociality, Racial, Great power…

The historical mission of our Nation, in this turning point, [is to lead] the White peoples of the whole world into the last crusade for its existence against the Semitic-led untermenschen.

Biletsky founded the Azov Battalion at the outbreak of the civil war in 2014. A Nazi militia that recruits from the most far right elements of Ukraine and beyond, Azov has remained an all-volunteer force even as Ukraine has relied on brutal conscription tactics to fill its army ranks. It has grown in respect and power and now has an official unit within the national guard and one within the army, which Biletsky commands.

The authors devoted a recent article to Biletsky and view him as one of the most likely men to cause major trouble in the coming post-war Ukraine, with the potential of even seizing the presidency for himself.

Vladyslav Sobolevsky (Co-Founder and Leader of the Snake Island Institute, approximately 37 years-old)

Vladyslav “Borisfen” Sobolevsky is a former deputy commander of the Third Army Corps “Azov,” where he served under Biletsky. He also previously served as deputy chief of staff to Biletsky when the White Leader led the National Corps, a social nationalist political party that suspended its operations after Russia’s 2022 invasion.

The Snake Island Institute (SII) is an Azov aligned think tank. Founded in 2024, the SII states its goal is to “forge a Ukraine-rooted international security ecosystem to convert battlefield-proven expertise into shared standards, training, joint programs, and policies that fortify the free world,” and its mission is to “advance Ukraine in the West by building and scaling strategic security cooperation–convening trusted partners across government, industry, and civil society.”

Snake Island a “rocky, Black Sea outcrop” that has tremendous symbolic power within Ukraine’s public sphere.

As the author (Horton) reported in his 2024 book Provoked:

The Ukrainians came up with a fantastic story about how a few of their soldiers stationed at tiny Snake Island had bravely taken on the Russian navy, telling them, ‘Russian warship, go fuck yourself,’ and fighting until the bitter end. The men ‘died heroically,’ President Zelensky said. The story was a hoax. Never happened. They just surrendered. But what great war propaganda. The papers and cable TV news loved it and repeated it to their credulous audiences. Truth is the first casualty in war, as they say.

So, basically the perfect name for a think tank. In September and October, Sobolevsky led SII staff (many of them conspicuously young and female) on a public relations and lobbying trip to the United States. According to journalist Moss Robeson:

On their first day in the United States, they all took a meeting at the State Department with Kevin Covert, the Director for Eastern European Affairs. This year, Covert has also met with one of Zelensky’s chief political rivals, his predecessor Petro Poroshenko, as well as Oleksiy Goncharenko, a famous parliamentarian from Poroshenko’s party, and Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the former Prime Minister of Ukraine (2014-16)…In the coming days, Snake Island Institute visited the Atlantic Council, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and perhaps some other DC-based think tanks. (They already made friends at the American Foreign Policy Council.)

The SII also had a meet and greet with retired general Michael Flynn, co-hosted a private event at Washington’s Army and Navy Club with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), gave a guest lecture to students at the U.S. Naval Academy in Maryland, visited the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California and hosted a “Defense Cooperation Forum” in Los Angeles.

A proud Nazi like Sobolevsky being feted throughout America’s government apparatus and defense industrial base partners is nothing new, especially since Russia’s escalation in 2022. On one deeply surreal night in 2023, Azov members were extolled in person by neoconservative thought leader Francis Fukuyama and former Obama-era Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul during an event at Stanford University, complete with their Nazi symbols projected onto the wall. What made this night truly off the wall bizarre was that weeks earlier, the Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation released a study warning of Azov’s azism. But Sobolevsky isn’t just looking for support in the current war. He is working to create a permanent Ukraine lobby that will be fully embedded within the imperial structure of the United States.

Azov’s profile was later quietly removed from the Stanford website, which is funny because if one searches the term “Azov” on the site, it still returns hits for the Rise Above Movement (RAM), Misanthropic Division, C14, Right Sector, Atomwaffen Division, the Nordic Resistance Movement and Russian Imperial Movement–all of them Nazis, and all of them, still according to Stanford, close with their associates in Ukraine’s Azov movement.

Denys Prokopenko (Commander of the 1st Corps “Azov” of the Ukrainian National Guard, 34 years-old)

Denys Prokopenko is Biletsky’s Azov counterpart within the National Guard. He oversees five brigades, including the 12th Special Forces Brigade “Azov,” originally created at the same time as Biletsky’s’ Corps.

Like Biltesky, Prokopenko is regarded as a war hero. He joined the Azov Battalion as an anti-tank rifleman in 2014 and quickly rose through the ranks. In 2022, he famously led the defense of Mariupol for 86 days before surrendering to the Russians. He was released through a prisoner exchange a few months later and exiled to Turkey, where the U.S. and presumably Russia believed he would remain for the duration of the war. But, in a classic Minsk-style move, he was brought back to Ukraine and put back in charge of troops.

Prokopenko’s men display Nazi symbolism on their flags, their uniforms and tattooed on their bodies. They are proud adherents of the ideological framework developed by Biletsky. If Biletsky has Prokopenko and his men on his side as the domestic struggle for power unfolds, his path to the presidency will be much smoother.

Andriy Parubiy (Assassinated on Aug. 30, 2025, at age 54)

Andriy Parubiy was one of the key players in the 2014 Ukrainian coup, commanding thousands of far-right militants who gave the protestors at the Maidan their lethal edge. In 1991 he founded the Social-Nationalist Party of Ukraine (social-nationalist, get it?), which was rebranded as Svoboda in 2004. In 2007, he hosted the unveiling of a massive statue of Stepan Bandera in Lviv. During World War II, Bandera was the leader of the OUN-B, a militant wing of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists which collaborated with Nazi Germany in implementing the Holocaust.

After the 2014 coup, Parubiy was made secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council. He joined Yulia Tymoshenko’s Fatherland Party and became speaker of Ukraine’s parliament, the Rada. He pushed for Ukraine to join NATO, advocated a military solution to dealing with separatists in the East and consistently portrayed Russia as the source of all problems in Ukraine.

On Aug. 30, he was gunned down in Lviv. Initial reports suggested a lone Ukrainian gunman had murdered Parubiy as revenge for the death of his son, a Ukrainian soldier killed in the war. On Oct. 3, however, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claimed the man acted on the orders of Russian intelligence. For all we know, the SBU ordered the hit, or he was taken out by a rival ideological actor.

There are obviously reasons for everyone to lie about what happened, but the Nazis have dragged Ukraine into a catastrophic struggle that has killed at least hundreds of thousands of soldiers and threatens to kill the nation. Meanwhile, Russia has vowed to denazify the place. A perfect “stabbed in the back” narrative is in the works for Ukraine’s Nazis. They certainly have an existential reason to shift blame from themselves, continue demonizing Russia, and maybe even turn on the United States. And as they vie for power among themselves, we should anticipate lethal fallout.

Oleh Tyahnybok (Major in the 128th Separate Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 57 years-old)

Oleh Tyahnybok became leader of the Social Nationalist party in 2004 and presided over its rebranding as Svoboda (“Freedom”). Softer name. Same fascist ideology. Svoboda’s website declared:

We are not America, a mishmash of all sorts of people…. The Ukrainian needs to stay Ukrainian, the Pole—Polish, the Gagauz—Gagauz, the Uzbek—Uzbek.

This becomes a bit more ominous when we consider that Tyahnybok’s adviser Yuriy Mykhalchyshyn claimed the Holocaust was “a bright episode in European civilization.” Or when we consider that as a member of the Rada in 2005, Tyahnybok wrote several “open letters” to President Viktor Yushchenko demanding he crush the “criminal activity of organized Jewry,” within Ukraine. Or that he consistently invoked the threat of the “Moscow-Jewish mafia” to the Ukrainian nation.

Since 2022, he has served as a major in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to Tatyana Karmazina in Telegraf, he serves in the 128th Separate Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is the deputy commander of a separate battalion and his only son has become a war hero in the struggle:

The 28-year-old son of the ‘Svobod’ Gordiy Tyahnybok also joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the beginning of the war and fought in the ‘Force of Freedom’ battalion of the 4th Brigade of the National Guard ‘Rubizh.’ In May 2024, Gordiy was wounded in the Bakhmut direction and was evacuated for treatment to Dnipro.

The elder Tyahnybok was one of the single most important individuals in the 2014 coup. He is discussed by name in the infamous, leaked, 2014 “F the EU” phone call between U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland and U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt. In the call, in which Nuland and Pyatt discuss the contours of the post-“transition” Ukrainian government, Tyahnybok is viewed as an important ideological and mentor figure adjacent to the new regime.

While he certainly might have presidential ambitions, it would be more natural for him to take on a similar senior role within a new fascist government. He is approximately 10 years older than Biletsky and he has been keeping a much lower profile than the White Leader. He doesn’t have entire metro cars in Kiev dedicated to his deification, as does the younger man, for example. If he throws his support behind Biletsky, Ukraine might get “an absolutely Nazi regime” that even Washington objects to.

Dmytro Yarosh (Commander of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army, 54 years-old)

Dmytro Yarosh was a founding member of Right Sector, which provided violent thugs for the 2014 putsch. In 2015, he founded the Ukrainian Volunteer Army (UVA). By all accounts, the UVA is not an Orwellian appellation and does seem to rely exclusively on volunteers. Ukraine’s regular army relies on a conscription regime that involves ripping young (and even not so young) men off the streets of Kiev, Lviv and elsewhere. The Nazis want to wage war on Russia, and they are good at recruiting like-minded radicals.

Yarosh was one of the Nazis who openly voiced death threats at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Back in 2019, Zelensky had been elected on a platform of peace and was interested in implementing the Minsk agreements. Yarosh and the boys would have none of it. As Libertarian Institute Senior Fellow Ted Snider reported in 2024:

Ultranationalist leaders defied Zelensky and warned that a ceasefire and fulfillment of his campaign promises would lead to protests and riots. More seriously, they threatened his life. Dmytro Yarosh, the founder of the [Right] Sector paramilitary organization threatened that, if Zelensky fulfilled his campaign promise, ‘he will lose his life. He will hang on some tree on Khreshchatyk boulevard if he betrays Ukraine and those people who died in the Revolution and the War. And it is very important that he understand this.’

Yarosh has been killing Ukrainian separatists and Russians ever since. We should not expect him to be ideologically softer when the time comes to replace the Zelensky government. He was most recently adviser to the former Ukrainian military Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny.

Yevhen Karas ( Commander of the 413th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems “Raid,” 37 years-old)

Yevhen Karas was the leader of C14 during the 2014 coup. What is C14? It’s a Svoboda Party militia that takes its name from the infamous “14 words” of white race enthusiast David Lane: “We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children.”

Karas had no illusions about D.C.’s agenda. He understood there was a geopolitical chess game being played and this, not any concern for Ukrainians or their sovereignty, was the reason for the influx of cash and weapons. The Nazis (or Ukrainian Nationalists as he prefers) were good at killing Russians:

“We were now being given so much weaponry, not because… they want the best for us, but because we perform the tasks set by the West, because we are the only ones who are prepared to do them.” He explained, “[W]e have fun killing and we have fun fighting. And they are like, ‘Wow, let’s see what’s going to happen.’”

As the commander of RAID, Karas is crucial to Ukraine’s drone warfare, which continues to strike deep within Russia. As such, Karas is possibly one of the most likely people to provoke a nuclear strike on Kiev. And while assassinating people with rifles is still en vogue, the future of assassination is clearly drone-centric. We might just see that future manifest in the upcoming struggle for power within Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russia is fully committed to victory in Ukraine on its terms. The nation recently shifted to a year-round conscription model. It is not even officially at war based on its own internal, legal and mobilization categories. But that could change. The denazification campaign has, being a government project, further nazified Ukraine. Given the stress being exerted on Ukraine by the Russian military, the increasing radicalization of Ukrainian Nazis through bloodshed, and the West’s mercurial approach to the conflict, we have the makings of a downright powder keg in Far-Eastern Europe.

https://mronline.org/2025/11/14/keeping ... nes-nazis/

Should the Russians lay off the Nazis because they might get 'radicalized"? What kind of silly bullshit is that?

*****

Malaya Tokmachka has been liberated
November 17, 11:22

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Units of the 58th Army of the Russian Armed Forces liberated Malaya Tokmachka yesterday afternoon, approaching Orekhovo from the southeast.
Malaya Tokmachka was captured by units of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 7th Airborne Assault Division.

The balance of power in Malaya Tokmachka recently shifted when the enemy missed the advance of an armored group, which, under cover of bad weather, had infiltrated the center of the settlement and was able to land troops there. The troops dug in and secured reinforcements, which gradually drove the enemy out of Malaya Tokmachka. For nearly two weeks, the enemy launched fierce counterattacks with the 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade, but they were repelled with losses. As a result, the enemy began to wind up and retreat toward Orekhovo yesterday. Today, Defense Minister Belousov congratulated the Russian Armed Forces units that distinguished themselves in the liberation of Malaya Tokmachka.

Its liberation opens up additional opportunities for the Russian Armed Forces to develop operations in the Orekhovo area, which is not far from our forward positions.
Coupled with the successful advance of the Russian Armed Forces northeast of Hulyaipole, where the enemy is losing tens of kilometers of territory, success in Malaya Tokmachka foreshadows the accelerated liberation of a significant portion of the northern regions of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast from Nazi control. According to the Constitution, these regions are part of the Russian Federation.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10191423.html

Google Translator

*****

Russia Matters: Zelenskyy Faces Outrage at Home Over $100M Corruption Scandal as EU Warns Aid Depends on Reform
November 16, 2025
Russia Matters, 11/14/25

Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies (known by their acronyms NABU and SAPO) announced on Nov. 10 that they had uncovered a $100 million kickback and money laundering scheme at the Energoatom state-owned nuclear energy company.1 The 15-month inquiry, which has been codenamed “Midas,”2 focuses on allegations of illegal payments by Energoatom contractors—typically 10–15% of contract value—to retain business.3 Suspects reportedly include Minister of Justice Herman Halushchenko, Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s onetime business partner, Timur Mindich.4 Mindich—who is suspected of having allegedly run the kickback scheme—fled Ukraine as investigators closed in, while the two ministers resigned. With arrests already underway (prosecutors named seven suspects, with five detained), Zelenskyy—who was elected president in April 2019 on a promise to root out the pervasive graft,5 but who then came under strong fire at home and in the West in summer 2025 for attempting to defangthe two anti-corruption agencies—called for arrests, promised a reset at Energoatom and sanctions on those involved. The scandal has fueled public outrage at home—particularly amid the ongoing blackouts caused by Russian attacks—and has increased pressure on Zelenskyy’s government to deliver lasting accountability.6
European leaders issued warnings to Ukraine this week, saying that continued military and financial support depends on Kyiv taking decisive action against corruption. European Commission spokesman Guillaume Mercier called on Ukraine to protect its anti-corruption bodies and ensure clean handling of international financial support. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told Zelenskyy that Europe expects Ukraine to advance anti-corruption reforms, while German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stressed that Western aid hinges on stronger anti-corruption measures. Dutch Finance Minister Eelco Heinen also emphasized that EU aid packages are conditional on Ukraine’s fight against graft. Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini warned that more aid could prolong the war and worsen corruption. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called for a freeze on EU funds to Ukraine, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared that “the golden illusion of Ukraine is falling apart.” Asked if the disclosures have shaken EU confidence, Lithuanian Finance Minister Kristupas Vaitiekunas responded in blunt terms: “Maybe, but what other options do we have?” according to The Washington Post.
In the period of Oct. 14–Nov. 11, 2025, Russian forces gained 165 square miles of Ukrainian territory, an increase over the 154 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period, according to the Nov. 12, 2025, issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. This week, Russian forces have been advancing into the eastern towns of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, which they are “very likely” to seize, according to ISW. Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT reportedly announced on Nov. 12 that Russia’s gain of 15 square miles (40 square kilometers), made in the preceding 24 hours, was the largest daily territorial gain by the Russian troops since the start of the year. DeepState also reported that Russian forces captured the following settlements in southeastern and eastern Ukraine on Nov. 7–14: Novoe, Novouspenivske, Rivnopillia, Uspenivka, Katerynivka, Novomykolaivka, Yablukove and, most recently, Stepova Novoselivka. Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 170 square miles, according to the RM card.
Russia launched 98 ballistic missiles into Ukraine in October, a record since observations began in May 2023, with only 17 intercepted by Ukraine, according to the card.
Ukrainian prosecutors estimate that 290,000 cases have been opened for desertion or absence without leave since the start of the war, highlighting the severe manpower crisis facing Ukrainian forces, according to The New York Times. In October alone, nearly 20,000 such cases were recorded—the highest monthly figure this year—as Russian troops exploit gaps along thinly held lines in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, where just four to seven infantrymen defend each kilometer of the 1,000 kilometer frontline, according to Financial Times. “The result [of desertions] is that the [Ukrainian] land forces are not expanding but are actually declining in numbers,’’ Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, told FT.
A German federal police investigation has concluded that an elite Ukrainian military unit, directed by Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhniy, was responsible for the September 2022 Nord Stream pipeline bombings, aiming to disrupt Russian energy revenues and Moscow’s ties with Germany, The Wall Street Journal reported. Investigators relied on surveillance photos and boat rental records, issuing European arrest warrants for three Ukrainian soldiers and four divers.7 The findings have triggered diplomatic friction: Poland has refused to extradite one suspect, hailing him as a hero, while Italy is considering a similar extradition request, according to WSJ. The case has intensified political divisions within Germany—where the far-right has capitalized on public anger over energy prices—and across Europe, straining unity and stirring debates about continued aid to Kyiv. [As regular readers of this blog know, this narrative of who and how the Nordstream pipeline bombing was carried out is not very credible. Apparently, German authorities must decide on a narrative that doesn’t admit their own cravenness in allowing self-righteous allies to destroy their infrastructure and economy. – Natylie]
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the Russia-China Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation remains fully relevant and that the approaching expiration date of July 16, 2026, will not go unnoticed by either side, according to Kommersant. Lavrov indicated that Moscow and Beijing are working on extending or updating the treaty as its term nears completion, according to Kommersant. It will be interesting to see if there will be new definitions of the Russian-Chinese relationship if the signatories update the treaty rather than extend it.*

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/11/rus ... on-reform/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Nov 18, 2025 1:24 pm

The net is closing in on Zelensky.
Published by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/18/2025

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On Sunday, at the first stop of his umpteenth European propaganda and fundraising tour, Volodymyr Zelensky announced an energy cooperation agreement with Greece. With a gas pipeline system crisscrossing its territory, from which it has obtained energy at reduced prices for decades, Ukraine decided, even before the Russian invasion, to rid itself of its Russian “dependence” and is now seeking new suppliers, including Greece, which isn't even a producer. Yesterday, during his visit to France, where he was also received with honors, Zelensky and Emmanuel Macron announced a “historic” agreement for the sale of 100 French-made Rafale fighter jets to modernize the Ukrainian air force, an agreement Kyiv expects to be financed by France. From his third stop in Spain, the Ukrainian president expects, as he wrote on Sunday, “a fruitful visit” focused on the supply of long-range missiles and air defense systems. All indications are that Zelensky will request Spain to acquire this equipment as Spain's first participation in the mechanism for purchasing US equipment for Ukraine at the expense of the national budget. Undoubtedly, the visit to the Reina Sofía Museum to see Picasso's Guernica will be used as an example to justify the continuation of the military path as the only possible solution to the conflict for as long as necessary .

The Ukrainian president's pre-arranged tour coincides with a moment when Volodymyr Zelensky needs to demonstrate to his population that he still enjoys the support of his main constituency : the political and economic elites of Western countries. Zelensky's problems are not limited to the deteriorating situation on the front lines, nor to the US accusations of authoritarianism against his right-hand man, Andriy Ermak, nor to the polls that clearly indicate his electoral prospects beyond the war are not particularly promising. They also extend to the mounting accusations of corruption against his inner circle. In the past, Zelensky had already lost a minister from his inner circle, Oleksiy Reznikov, the defense minister, who fell due to a scheme involving cost overruns in the supply of food to the troops. In war, any scheme linked to the flow of weapons, financing, or military logistics is sensitive, especially when the country's ability to continue fighting and sustain the state depends on maintaining the support of allies and foreign suppliers. This subordination to those who must provide the funds and means to continue the battle implies that explanations will have to be given every time doubts arise.

This is what happened last summer when Volodymyr Zelensky made an unforced error and exposed himself to the wrath of a segment of society—the upper-middle class linked to sectors close to Poroshenko, who have made anti-corruption institutions their career path—and, above all, to the sectors the Ukrainian government cannot afford to lose. Although Western media preferred to credit the mobilizations of civil society , it was the calls from Western partners, especially Ursula von der Leyen, that forced Zelensky to quickly reverse the steps taken days earlier, when the Rada had passed a law giving the government control of the anti-corruption agency (NABU) and the anti-corruption prosecutor's office (SAPO), and to have the legislature pass a law that completely contradicted the terms of the first. The situation was back to square one. The anti-corruption institutions continued to enjoy the independence they had used to carry out political vendettas, and Zelensky regained the support of his Western partners, for whom a mere correction was sufficient. Those who saw the Ukrainian president's misstep as the beginning of the end of his leadership, his discrediting and delegitimization, are now using those same arguments again, rekindling hopes for Volodymyr Zelensky's downfall.

The current situation is far more precarious than that of the summer and is directly related to it. At that time, the rumor, now confirmed, claimed that Zelensky had acted against anti-corruption institutions—controlled by sectors aligned with the network of NGOs serving the West—to prevent an operation against individuals in his inner circle. That operation took place this past week, coinciding with the outbreak of the most serious corruption scandal in recent years.

“The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) have uncovered the activities of a criminal organization involving current and former officials in the energy sector, a well-known media personality, and others. Its members created a large-scale corruption scheme aimed at influencing the operations of strategic state-owned enterprises—particularly the National Nuclear Energy Company, Energoatom—in order to obtain illicit profits and launder money,” states the press release issued by the anti-corruption agency. The blow to the credibility of the Ukrainian government is especially significant given that the energy sector was the focus of this lucrative corruption scheme. With the most challenging winter for the Ukrainian population looming, already aware of the increased blackouts caused by Russian attacks and the IMF's proposals to raise tariffs, the millions of dollars stolen from the national nuclear energy company by individuals close to Zelensky represent a blow the current government will take a long time to overcome. The nationalist opposition, specifically the Poroshenko faction, is already attempting to exploit this politically. However, the relative silence from Western allies demonstrates that Zelensky remains the figure they will continue to rely on throughout the war. This is also confirmed by opinion polls, which give Zelensky little chance of reelection, yet show that the population continues to place its trust in him above other political figures during this time of war. The Ukrainian president's tour this week, along with the damage control measures he has taken, aims to consolidate this status quo at the most politically critical moment of his presidency.

“Undeterred, investigators this week released a wealth of detailed evidence, including damning allegations that senior officials were taking bribes on construction projects to protect power plants from Russian missile attacks, at a time when Ukrainians are suffering daily blackouts,” wrote the Financial Times in an article under the explicit title “Bags of cash and a gold toilet: the corruption crisis surrounding Zelensky’s government.”

The main problem for the Ukrainian president is that the scandal is unfolding not only at a time of societal suffering, but also that the corruption, which has cost two ministers their jobs—one of them directly accused of benefiting from bribes—is so close to Zelensky that the Ukrainian president has had to revoke the citizenship of one of his closest friends. In its statement announcing the operation, the anti-corruption agency stated that “ Currently, under Article 208 of the Code of Criminal Procedure of Ukraine, detectives have detained five people and notified seven others that they are suspects, including:

-a businessman, leader of the criminal organization;

-a former advisor to the Minister of Energy;

-the executive director of physical protection and security of JSC «NAEK Energoatom»;

-four people, "employees" of the administrative office for money laundering.

The main activity of the criminal organization was the systematic receipt of illicit benefits from Energoatom's contractors in the amount of 10% to 15% of the contract value .”

The accusations are based on hundreds of hours of recordings in which the accused discuss the plot—apparently in Russian, not Ukrainian—with complete freedom, using the aliases that have given the "Operation Midas" name and concealing the names of those involved. Andriy Ermak, Zelensky's right-hand man, for example, is nicknamed Ali Baba. “Zelensky finally turned against the suspects in an attempt to protect his presidency. On Wednesday, the Ukrainian president demanded the resignation of Justice Minister German Galushchenko and Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk, who were subsequently removed from the National Security Council. He also imposed sanctions on Timur Mindich, a friend and former business partner accused in the case. Investigators claimed Mindich was the ‘co-organizer’ of the alleged scheme and that some $100 million of illicit funds passed through his office,” wrote the Financial Times , describing the scant details that have so far been officially released.

Timur Mindich, a Ukrainian citizen residing in Israel, fled the country in a taxi owned by a former border official less than a day before the raids. He is the co-owner of the Kvartal 95 studio, which he founded with then-actor Volodymyr Zelensky. Little is known about Mindich, but according to Ihor Kolomoisky, he introduced the future president to his first employer. Kolomoisky, who has admitted to having joint business ventures with Mindich, has not confirmed whether the accused is currently acting as a proxy for the oligarch in the ownership of numerous businesses, possibly including the production company.

The Ukrainian government reacted slowly and without explaining why former Defense Minister and current Chairman of the National Security and Defense Council, Rustem Umerov, who appears in the recordings, seems in no hurry to return to Ukraine and explain his connection to the scheme, or why Andriy Ermak, the president's right-hand man, has had to defend someone with whom he shares a surname. However, the dismissals, the revocation of Mindich's citizenship, and the promises to reorganize the energy sector have been enough for the West. “The Trump administration remains silent as the massive corruption scandal in Ukraine rocks Zelensky’s inner circle. The White House is refusing to comment on the $100 million investigation that led to the resignation of top Ukrainian officials. According to prosecutors, the alleged ringleader was Timur Mindich, a former Zelensky associate and co-owner of his former production studio, as well as an advisor to Justice Minister German Galuschenko. Authorities say Galuschenko, who was energy minister until July, facilitated the money laundering operation and acted under Mindich’s influence,” wrote Fox News , a media outlet close to the Trump administration.

The European press has also settled for the scant explanations offered by the Ukrainian government or has opted to openly defend its actions. “Zelensky is facing unprecedented outrage in his country over a $100 million corruption scandal in the energy sector involving people in his inner circle. He has already dismissed the Ministers of Energy and Justice. That probably won't be enough. But all this is happening because Ukraine, despite all the devastation suffered during almost four years of war, remains a democracy with an independent anti-corruption judiciary that did not hesitate to arrest those close to the very heart of power,” wrote Yaroslav Trofimov, chief correspondent for The Wall Street Journal . Only in Ukraine can a $100 million scandal be a sign of a healthy democracy.

Both those who naively hope the scandal will bring down Volodymyr Zelensky and his Servant of the People party—named after the series produced by Kvartal 95, then owned by Zelensky and Mindich—and those who see the indictment as a sign of mature democracy should remember the political use that anti-corruption institutions have made of them since their inception. As Peter Korotaev wrote, “In early 2019, the anti-corruption agency uncovered another ‘explosive corruption case’ in Ukraine’s military sector. It, too, was highly political, further reducing President Poroshenko’s popularity just in time for the elections. And, naturally, all the scandalous details of the corruption involving Poroshenko’s officials did not result in any significant prison sentences.” “This is a political game in which a business clan, more closely linked to London, the EU and the Democratic Party (the anti-corruption community), is trying to place its people in power,” Korotaev added to describe the current events, a political positioning by one of the clans anticipating future elections.

No scandal is complete without the allegation that it all benefits Russia. “I warned Zelensky early in his presidency that Russia and pro-Russian groups in Europe would push the narrative that Ukraine is deeply corrupt. I urged him to be vigilant for any signs of corruption around him, because avoiding even the slightest scandal would be crucial to his reputation,” stated Donald Tusk. Going a step further, bordering on self-parody, Mikhail Podolyak didn't disappoint, writing that “unfortunately, the news of the investigation into a corruption scheme in the energy sector is not surprising. It is a logical echo of the past, in which the Kremlin spent decades building a system to keep Ukraine within its sphere of influence. Corruption was one of its main instruments, and vestiges of that mechanism still remain.” Everything, as usual, is Russia's fault.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/11/18/el-ce ... -zelensky/

Google Translator

*****

Brief Frontline Report – November 17th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Nov 17, 2025

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Kharkov Oblast (North-East) Buffer Zone
Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "As a result of offensive actions by servicemen of the 9th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 'North' Group, the settlement of Dvurechanskoe in the Kharkov Oblast was liberated.

During combat operations, artillery crews and operators of the troop group's unmanned systems unit provided support to the assault units.

Air reconnaissance identified routes of movement of equipment and personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine formations, and strike FPV drone crews destroyed all detected enemy targets in advance, depriving the enemy of the ability to deliver personnel, ammunition, and provisions to the line of contact."

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ЛБС 20.6.2025=June 20th, 2025. Участки Активности=Area of Activity.

The encirclement of the city of Kupyansk by the Russian Armed Forces forces the Ukrainian Armed Forces command to send additional forces and means to this area, withdrawing them from other sectors. Immediately, Russian units begin active operations in these sectors. In the Velyky Burluk direction, Russian assault groups advanced along the watershed of the Popov Yar and Kamensky Yar ravines and liberated the settlement of Dvurechanskoe (50°01′21″ N, 37°45′53″ E, about 350 residents).

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To the south lies the settlement of Krinichnoe, where Ukrainian Armed Forces units have set up positions defending the entrance to the Orekhovy gully and the Kamenka-Kolodeznoe road. Upon reaching height 195.2, our units will gain control over the dominant heights of the area and the entrances to the Tretyakov and Orekhovy gullies, which lead to the Upper Dvurechnaya River, along which the Ukrainian defense node Kolodeznoe - Mitrofanovka is located.

Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "Units of the 'South' Group, as a result of decisive actions, liberated the settlement of Platonovka in the Donetsk People's Republic."

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ЛБС 10.10.25=Line of Combat Contact October 10th, 2025.

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A third encirclement may be added to the two existing ones where the Ukrainian Armed Forces groups are 'boiling' (in the cities of Kupyansk and Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk). The Russian Armed Forces have deepened their coverage of the city of Seversk on the left flank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping defending the area south of the Seversky Donets River, in the Seversk direction. Covering their right flank with the river, our advanced groups can advance in the direction of Lugovoe - Zakotnoe, simultaneously encircling two areas of Ukrainian resistance: Yampol from the south and Seversk from the north. Depending on the reaction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces command, one of these areas may be encircled and destroyed.

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Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "Assault units of the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Guards Combined Arms Army of the 'East Group decisively broke through from the settlement of Vishnevoe and liberated the settlement of Gai in the Dnepropetrovsk Oblast.

During the rapid attack, an important road junction was taken under control, as well as an area of more than 5 square kilometers."

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Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) to Gulyaipole; Gai is marked with a Russian flag*

Units of the 'East group of forces continue to press the enemy in the Dnepropetrovsk region, consistently breaking down their defensive lines.

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ЛБС 28.10.2025=Line of Combat Contact October 28th, 2025. АКТИВНОСТЬ=Activity.

It is quite expected that after a rapid breakthrough into the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the center of the Uspenovka salient, the activity shifted to the northern face, where our advanced groups from the Novoaleksandrovka - Vishnevoe line reached the northern slopes of the watershed of the Volchya - Yanchur rivers and the Verbovaya ravine ("Volchya" is spelled "Volcha" on the map below; the Verbovaya Ravine is not marked, but it is just above Vishnevoe) and liberated the settlement of Gai (47°55′03″ N, 36°17′20″ E, about 60 residents). It is located at the crossroads of roads C041409 and C041431, near height 134.0. It is 6.5 kilometers from the settlement of Pokrovskoe, the central area of the defense node Pokrovskoe - Andreevka - Kolomyitsi.

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The Pokrovskoe - Kolomyitsi line is located at an altitude of 90 meters above sea level. The elevation of Russian positions in the settlement of Gai is 44 meters above the enemy front. The descent from Gai to the bed of the Volchya River, along which enemy positions are located, is approximately 6.7 meters per kilometer of distance. This is a convenient position for fire control of the Pokrovskoe positional area.

These actions have improved the situation on the front line and created conditions for the development of an offensive in several neighboring directions.

Ukrainian media began to panic after units of the 'Center' Group reached the southern outskirts of the settlement of Novopavlovka, where a fairly large group of enemy formations may find themselves in operational encirclement.

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https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ember-17th

*****

SITREP 11/16/25: Overblown Energy Strikes on Russia Again Mask UA Frontline Collapse
Simplicius
Nov 16, 2025


A note on the Russian energy attacks by Ukraine. There has been an interesting confluence of new reports that contradict the narrative of how badly Russia is suffering from these Ukrainian strikes.

It comes coincidentally a mere day after Ukraine launched a “large-scale” attack on Russia’s Novorossiysk port, which had allegedly crippled some large percentage of Russian energy exports. Now, today brings news from Ukrainian accounts that Russian ships have already been seen loading product at the very port said to have been ‘crippled’ a day earlier:

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From Reuters:

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I’ve often harped on the fact that pro-Ukrainian voices use months-old strikes as ‘proof’ of the damage Russia is taking, while completely ignoring how fast the damage from those attacks is often repaired—not to mention that sometimes there’s hardly any damage to begin with, and the impact of the strikes is vastly overstated from the get-go.

Now Bloomberg has hilariously reported that attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure are party to the rising cost of gas in the US and elsewhere:

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ining-boom

EU and US sanctions against Russia and ongoing attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian oil refineries have led to rising fuel prices in the United States — Bloomberg 😂

▪️Diesel prices have increased by 3%, gasoline remains at the level of the beginning of the year, despite a 20% drop in global oil prices. This is “unlikely to please the US administration,” for whom affordable energy is a key element of the economic program.

▪️The price increase is linked to reduced refining: attacks on Russian infrastructure, disruptions at plants in Asia and Africa, as well as refinery closures in Europe and the US have removed millions of barrels of fuel from the market.

▪️Additional pressure comes from sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft, as well as the EU ban on petroleum product imports coming into effect in January 2026.


This Ukrainian outlet even reported that Russian oil refining only declined “slightly” from recent attacks, dropping a mere 3%

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https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/russian-oil ... s-in-2025/

According to independent industry sources, Russia’s oil refining this year fell by only about 3% despite large-scale drone attacks, as refineries used spare capacity to offset the blows.

That’s not to mention the fact that Russia’s refining capacity primarily serves its own domestic market and not its crude exports to the world; about 70% of refined products are for the domestic market and therefore do not even affect Russian “oil revenues” as many in the West claim.

This article corroborates the above, noting that Russia was able to activate “idle capacity” at other plants to make up for the ones taken offline given that Russia has a vast surplus of available refining capacity, such that it keeps some of it dormant for precisely such rainy days.

Yet despite the barrage, aimed at stifling Moscow’s main financial lifeline to fund its war in Ukraine, Russia’s total oil processing output has fallen by only 3% this year, as the country activates idle capacity at other plants.

Lastly, Financial Times reports that Russia’s Gazprom is fully moving ahead with its major Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to China that will entirely replace the lost exports to Europe:

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https://archive.ph/C4tR3

For comparison, the Power of Siberia 2 will ship 50+ billion cubic meters of gas to China annually, which is roughly the estimate of what Russia exported to Europe in the past two years; at its peak many years ago, Russia exported over 150 billion cubic meters.


Now onto some battlefield updates.

The coming disaster is really beginning to dawn on many pro-Ukrainian figures for the first time in a truly visceral fashion. Ukrainian political aspirant and ex-Right Sector Odessa-branch leader Serhii Sternenko published the following much-discussed urgent plea:

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This was followed up by Julian Roepcke’s own similar-minded appeal which even evoked the exact same token of ‘strategic defeat’:

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His ignorance to the fate of the “17,000 mobilized” men in Ukraine is quite humorous to witness; maybe he should go to the front and check under the autumn leaves.

In the meantime, a Ukrainian soldier of the 35th Brigade—which presently operates on the collapsing Novopavlovka front—has reportedly written this evocative plea that, in the context, should also be read:

👉A Ukrainian soldier from the 35th Marine Brigade:

The brigade will be withdrawn; the losses are terrible. I hope others are not facing the same. We are holding the defence.

All losses come from FPVs and KAB (Fab bombs) strikes; no one has seen the enemy face-to-face. Sometimes snipers work, but that is rare. You come to war and get burned by an FPV or torn apart by a KAB; who you were actually fighting — no one knows. This is how it is everywhere now, and this is how it will always be.

Here, the one who survives is the one who digs deeper and doesn’t stick his head out unnecessarily. I always tell newcomers to stay deep in the ground and not test their luck.

But the irony is that the longer you fight, the more willingly you stay underground, and the less you’ve fought, the more often you stick your head out, whether you need to or not. That’s why only the old hands survive.

Many are afraid they might get buried underground, but that’s only likely if a KAB lands close or heavy artillery hits. The chances are low. More likely, a drone will fly in and tear your skull or chest apart with its payload.

Another fear is when the groin artery is ripped — the chances of survival are small, but at least it isn’t very painful. The wounded sit in a “thinker’s pose” and wait for death; it comes to everyone sooner or later.

Some people came and said not to spread information about the situation in the brigade. Good thing no one knows I run this channel. They’ll be surprised — without truth, there will be no victory, remember that.

And even if they find out, how will they punish me? Send me to the war? Hahaha.


All eyes are now focused on the Zaporozhye direction, which is simply collapsing faster than anything in the war previously. Many pro-Ukrainian accounts are in veritable panic:

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On the front, Russian forces again continued steamrolling west in the Gulyaipole direction after capturing both Rivnopillya and Yablukove:

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The taking of Rivnopillya by Russia’s 114th Motor Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motor Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern forces: (Video at link.)

Not far to the west of that, Russia has made a surprise breakthrough in the Orekhove direction, capturing most of Mala Tokmachka, from whence Ukraine’s ill-fated 2023 counter-offensive had once begun:

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The biggest surprise continues to be in the Novopavlovka direction, where Russian forces apparently used heavy fog cover to make mechanized drops of troops throughout the town, penetrating even further north and capturing the majority of it:

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Details of the breakthrough have appeared in Novopavlovka, where our troops have already reached the northernmost part of the village, which is very large.
Under the cover of fog, a crossing was established between Yalta and Dachnoye. Subsequently, 10 pieces of armored vehicles were transported, and a large landing force entered the village, spreading out among the houses. Three more landing force groups arrived on BMPs. The attack was successful.
The fighting on the outskirts of Novopavlovka has been going on for 3 months, but our troops have never dreamed of landing such a large force.


Ukrainian military channels were shocked at this advancement:

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For context, here’s what the fog there looks like from a Mavic spotter drone, just to give you an idea why troops are able to conduct something approximating maneuver warfare when the weather permits: (Video at link.)

In Pokrovsk, it’s being reported by some sources that virtually everything in the southern part of the boiler is captured and being swept:

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Reports indicate that most Ukrainian troops in the pocket have now retreated to the north part of Mirnograd and are hiding in basements and other building positions.


A few last disparate items:

Russia is now developing a new UMPK glide bomb with an astounding 400km range that surpasses anything available in the world:

Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia is developing FABs with UMPK that can fly up to 400 km. This will allow for significant savings on missiles, each of which is more expensive than a new tank. The 400 km range can only be achieved with the use of jet boosters, which is the focus of current research. The current D-30SN UMPK FABs can hit targets at a distance of 120-130 km. If new FABs are dropped over the Kursk region, they will be able to reach Kiev, Kremenchug, and Krivoy Rog without any problems. 100-200 pieces per day?

There have already been new photos of a Russian UMPK with what appears to be rocket boosters attached to increase range considerably:

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The first photos of the new version of the Russian high-explosive aerial bomb with a rocket booster integrated into the planning and correction module have appeared. It is reported that with the help of the rocket booster, Russia has gained the ability to strike targets at a distance of about 200 km. Compared to the first versions of the UMPK, the new set differs not only by the booster but also by the mounting system, in the central part of the body of which, apparently, new sensors of the interference-protected satellite system “Kometa” are integrated.

That’s not to mention videos have emerged of, apparently, a failed one that crashed in Ukraine somewhere: (Video at link.)



Lastly, a famous American mercenary medic in Ukraine tells us what we’ve long known:

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https://www.the-independent.com/news/wo ... 63755.html

This is the future of war – and the West isn’t ready for what may be coming in an open conflict with Russia: mass casualties and a transformation of the battle beyond anything that Nato’s armies are training for.

The laptop feed is for Rebekah Maciorowski, an American volunteer paramedic who runs the medical operations, evacuation and training for an entire battalion of men and women on Ukraine’s eastern front, under its 3rd Brigade. In a conventional war, she would be a major. In this conflict? She has no idea what her rank is and cares even less.


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More:

But her team takes heavy losses. Over the last week, a top medic, callsign Viking, was killed on a rescue mission east of Slaviansk. A few weeks before that, another driver was blown up by a drone.

“I don’t see other Europeans coping with this,” she says.


Something we’ve long been talking about here:

Nato doctrine focuses on what it calls “combined arms manoeuvre”. This means an emphasis on the concentration of aircraft, armour, infantry and artillery with the aim to surprise and overwhelm an enemy.

That doesn’t work any more.


Another important point:

Nato’s method is to take on mass attacks by the “near peer” forces of Russia. But Russia’s tactics no longer concentrate on mass – the weight of numbers in men and arms used against Ukraine three years ago.

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Well, it seems the smart-alecks are finally wising up.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... gy-strikes

*****

Our son of a bitch

Europe bays for blood. The future of Zelensky. Another '12-15 years' of war?
Events in Ukraine
Nov 17, 2025

“Somoza may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.”

— President Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1939, supposedly referring to US-aligned dictator of Nicaragua Anastasio Somoza Garcia


How goes things for our son of a bitch in the east?

The past week has been full of dramatic revelations regarding Zelensky’s closest comrades. But what is really behind them?

For those unaware - on November 10, one of Zelensky’s oldest friends and business partners, Timur Myndich, was officially accused of large-scale corruption by Ukraine’s western-funded anti-corruption agencies, the NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine) and SAPO (Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office).

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Zelensky and Myndich

But this is only the tip of the iceberg. Only a few tiny fragments were released — 1,000 hours of wiretapped discussions at Myndich’s residence remain. It remains to be seen if Myndich’s golden bathroom was also recorded.

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Even more explosive revelations are to come. Today, the head of the NABU Semen Krivonos stated publicly that his Bureau would investigating ‘certain problems with tracking funds related specifically to defense procurement… . Not all of the members of the criminal organization are identified yet, and we hope to identify them all’.

The game is only beginning. Mindich, a nobody if not for Zelensky’s love of his barbecuing skills, was hardly the organizer of a corruption scheme that skimmed off $100 million from the country’s state energy company.

It was hardly because of Myndich’s non-existent business experience that he became the shadow manager of FirePoint, a drone and missile company created in 2023 which received a third of Ukraine’s defense spending in 2024.

But what are the forces standing behind this show? What are the stakes of this theatre?

First, there’s one thing that isn’t at stake — corruption.

The NABU and SAPO have never given a prison sentence to any influential figure it has accused of corruption. The NABU’s 2019 corruption investigation into incumbent president Petro Poroshenko resulted in just as many shocking revelations as the ongoing Myndich-gate, and just as many prison sentences - NONE.

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Nor is it merely a matter of control over government posts. Certainly, Zelensky’s liberal nationalist opposition would rather be sitting in the official positions Zelensky gives to his friends.

It isn’t corruption in question. More important matters are at play — war and peace.

The west, primarily the European Union, are pushing for Zelensky to lower the mobilization age and go all in on the war. The NABU and its corruption probe is merely a means of putting pressure on him to do so.

Today we’ll focus on the two most visible groups struggling for power — the liberal nationalists and Zelensky’s embattled coterie. In the coming days, we’ll take a look at two more powerful yet more mysterious players - the embittered oligarchs and frontline neo-nazis.

Let me first sketch the contours of this battle and the interests involved.

Last week’s revelations by Ukraine’s western-funded anti-corruption organs (the NABU and SAPO) regarding the massive graft of the Mindych network were an obvious blow against Zelensky’s authority.

The aim is to remove Zelensky’s most trusted allies in government - in particular, head of the presidential administration Andriy Yermak and his aide, Oleg Tatarov. It is these two men that have wielded total control over the country since 2021, and especially 2022. The liberals want their people in charge, leaving Zelensky as a powerless figurehead of the state.

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Tatarov (left) and Yermak (right)

The west, as I covered last week, is currently not allowing them to strike directly at Zelensky, fearing that such a regime change could result in chaos benefitting the Russian army. However, if Zelensky continues resisting, direct attacks on him may commence.

Strategically, Zelensky is largely preoccupied with survival. He knows that any peace deal signed now would be horrific — hundreds of thousands dead for nothing. Extremely uncomfortable questions would be asked about wartime corruption and Zelensky’s complacency towards the possibility of war back in late 2021 and early 2022. Finally, having deeply alienated Ukraine’s business-bandit class by imprisoning them or seizing their assets, Zelensky fears that peacetime democracy could cost his life.

Peace isn’t an option, but the war is also going worse than ever. Nevertheless, Zelensky seems hesitant to lower the mobilization age below 25, as increasingly demanded by the western sponsors of Ukraine. The unpopularity of such a move would decimate any remaining goodwill towards Zelensky among the broader population. Ordinary Ukrainian men are quite tired of experiencing what the gentleman in the video below did (November 13, Kharkov): (Video at link.)

The liberals, in contrast, have never been particularly popular in Ukraine. They have always disdained most Ukrainians as hopelessly retrograde ‘bydlo’ (cattle). The fact that Ukraine’s liberal parties find it impossible to win more than 5-20% in elections is explained with reference to the ‘soviet mentality’ incapacitating the majority.

People are incapable of understanding why they should be enthusiastic about neoliberal economic reforms whose main result is to aggravate unemployment. And now, people are incapable of mustering the enthusiasm to die in an unwinnable war, as demanded by the liberals.

Correspondingly, Ukraine’s liberals are quite eager to lower the mobilization age and wage war for ‘12 to 15 years more’, as one prominent figure in this community stated a few days ago. The liberals source of power is abroad — they don’t need to worry about domestic discontent. Or so they think, anyway.

Zelensky, in contrast, came to power in 2019 on a wave of popular support to end the war. The west was always suspicious of him for his unpredictable populism, and western media continuously accused him of being a Russian asset throughout the 2019-21 period. Were the war to end and a semblance of democracy to return, Zelensky’s only hope would be to appeal to the masses. The oligarchs that once supported him now hate him, and the west only likes him as long as he continues the war.

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What the blob thought of Zelensky back in 2019.

Let’s now analyze the struggle in more detail. Things are a great deal more complex than my sketch allows. Perhaps most interestingly of all, Zelensky’s most loyal and loud-mouthed parliamentarian is now calling for Zelensky’s all-powerful consigliere Yermak to resign. According to her, Yermak has been pushing Zelensky to make unpopular decisions. Yermak’s mission — to weaken the president and increase his dependency on his hated advisor.

In other words, Zelensky’s elite may be eating itself alive.

Nevertheless, Zelensky’s total control over Ukrainian law enforcement and (somewhat shakier) grip on parliament still gives him a strong position in the upcoming power struggles. But as the situation at the frontlines worsens and European pressure ramps up, Zelensky will need to respond more forcefully to the ever-multiplying threats surrounding him.

Europe bays for blood
The term ‘liberals’ is rather deceiving, implying as it does some sort of respect for the rights of the individual. In today’s case, our liberals support dramatically increasing the scope of state kidnapping and murder of the broader population.

Just two days ago, for instance, another man was killed in the process of mobilization. Ukraine’s police announced that the body of a 39-year old man had been found in the forest of the western region of Ivano-Frankivsk. The widow of the deceased soon wrote to facebook that he had been mobilized on November 8, after which his phone was taken away. The mobilization authorities claimed that they had let him go on the 10th because ‘he was making a nuisance of himself and not letting the boys sleep’. It is likely that the deceased was unwilling to fight. Such cases are common.

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A photo of the dead man, Oleg Skriptsa. He doesn’t look like the kind of man with a position in a western-funded NGO — those with such a privilege are exempted from mobilization.

Ukraine’s dear western partners, however, do not think there is enough mobilization.

On November 13, German chancellor Friedrich Mertz criticized Zelensky’s surprise August move to allow men aged 23 to 25 to leave Ukraine:

In a lengthy telephone conversation today, I asked the Ukrainian president to ensure that young men in particular from Ukraine do not come to Germany in large numbers — in increasing numbers — but that they serve their country

The future of the world is being shaped in Europe, says German Chancellor Friedrich Merz | Euronews

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Germans want more dead slavs. Is there anything new under the sun?

Merz also chastised Zelensky for the corruption rampant in his ranks. The connection between the two seems rather clear - Mertz wants Zelensky to work harder on whipping Ukrainian men to the front, otherwise the corruption probe will penetrate deeper. So to speak.

That same day, Zelensky admitted to Bloomberg that the west wants his country to intensify mobilization:

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Bloomberg: And there will be renewed discussions about this around manpower and whether or not you need to expand conscription. Is that something you’re looking at? Is it something that you may hear more about from allies, given the retreats you’ve had to make and the need to build up reserves, for example?

Zelensky: But look, the question of people, of course, is the most sensitive and the most difficult — difficult for me, for soldiers, for people, for society, and for partners. Yes.

And of course, we don’t have a really comparable number of people, because you know the size of Russia. Yes. And you know the size of Ukraine. Yes.

But… this is the balance. You can’t. Even if soldiers ask to mobilize more people, you have to balance. It’s a very difficult question — you have to balance, because it is society, people, and they have to work, and they need… they have to work and pay taxes. And then this money goes to the army. So you have to find the balance.

So I react during military cabinets. And of course, soldiers raise this topic, and partners [the western partners - EIU[. Yes. But partners are not at the battlefield. And that’s why, with all respect, with all due respect, I said the decision of our army was to mobilize about 30,000 per month. And the system now is doing this.


Keep in mind that according to official Ukrainian government numbers, there were more than 21,000 cases of desertion and awol in October alone. When you factor in frontline losses, it seems that Zelensky’s very optimistic figure of 30,000 mobilized monthly seems rather grim. I’ve covered other estimates by Ukrainian soldiers and analysts, who claim that much fewer men are mobilized, and many more desert, die, or are wounded.

Kiev mayor Vitaly Klitchko also joined in the chorus on November 12 in a Politico interview. Currently in Germany, he is known for his closeness with European elites. He has also long been at odds with Zelensky, who he was calling ‘dictatorial’ already in 2023.

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Like Mertz, Klitschko blamed Zelensky’s decision to open the borders for younger men. He then called to lower the mobilization age from 25 to 22. Clearly, Klitschko isn’t particularly worried about his popularity ratings. Germany will always be there to provide him a warm hearth:

BRUSSELS — Ukraine is facing a worsening shortage of soldiers as record numbers of men flee to Europe, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko warned in an interview.

“We have huge problems with soldiers — with human resources,” Klitschko told the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network



Under current rules, Ukrainians can be mobilized from the age of 25. Klitschko suggested that should change.

“In the past, 18-year-olds served in the army — but those are kids,” he said. “Right now you can only be mobilized in Ukraine from age 25. You could lower it by a year or two — to 23 or 22.”

The remarks reflect mounting concern about a growing exodus of young men. A government decree issued in August allowing men aged 18 to 22 to leave the country has coincided with a sharp increase in Ukrainians seeking protection in EU countries.

Recent data shows EU countries granted more than 79,000 new temporary protection decisions to Ukrainians in September — the highest monthly figure in two years — with large increases recorded in Germany and Poland.


Europe’s calls for Zelensky to lower the mobilization age come amidst strife over how the EU is to pay for Kiev’s gaping budget abyss. The corruption infesting Zelensky’s corridors of power has clearly increased their willingness to play hardball.

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And instead of harshening mobilization, Zelensky has actually been focusing more on shifting the army towards a Russian-style contract-based system. On November 3, the ministry of defense announced new system of contracts for military personnel ranging from one to five years. These two to five year contracts would include a one-year deferment from mobilization upon completion of the contract.

This is quite the opposite of the total mobilization desired by the west and its Ukrainian puppets.

Ukrainian liberals concur
If there’s anyone more bloodthirsty than European elites, it’s their allies in Ukraine. The glorious ‘liberal opposition’.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... of-a-bitch

******

Ukraine Is Buying Fighter Jets With Money It Does Not Have?

Over the next two years Ukraine plans to spend some €140 billion ($162b) it does not have to continue its war with Russia. There is serious doubt that the European Union, which has already shuffled €180 billion ($216b) to Ukraine, will be able to pay even a fraction of that.

Despite Ukraine’s lack of money it acting president Vladimir Zelenski is announcing deals to procure expensive military aircraft at an unprecedented scale.

In late October he went to Sweden to buy JAS 39 Gripen-E multi-role fighter jets build by Saab:

Ukraine could get 150 advanced Swedish fighter jets under just-signed deal – CNN, Oct 23 2025

New NATO member Sweden has said it is willing to sell Ukraine up to 150 of its most advanced fighter jets, the first offer from a member of the alliance to supply significant numbers of jets to Kyiv, which is seeking to upgrade its small and ageing air force.

The deal signed on Wednesday by Volodymyr Zelensky and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is a letter of understanding, meaning exact terms, costs and delivery dates for 100 to 150 Saab Gripen-E jets are yet to be determined.

But both leaders said it has the potential to be a game changer, not only for Ukraine – which desperately needs more air combat capabilities in its fight against Russia – but for NATO and European security overall.


The planes ain’t cheap:

[T]he most recent known deal was Thailand’s late-August 2025 contract for four additional Gripens (three single-seat Gripen E and one twin-seat Gripen F). The announced fixed price was about 5.3 billion Swedish kronor — approximately $553 million, or $138.25 million per aircraft.

However, Thailand is already an existing Gripen operator and therefore did not need to purchase additional ground equipment, spare parts, or other infrastructure. For comparison, Peru, which has also expressed interest in the Swedish fighter, estimates the cost at around $145.8 million per aircraft.

It should also be noted that these figures do not include weapons, which must be purchased separately.


The total price tag for the fighter jets is more than $20+ billion. The price is likely to increase because it will take many years to build the planes:

Even for Sweden’s own Air Force, Saab plans to complete its 60-aircraft order only by 2030.

Currently, Saab’s production facilities in Linköping can manufacture about 12 aircraft per year. However, the company aims to significantly increase this rate through localization in other countries.


Not even a month later Zelenski visits France to buy the even more expensive Rafale jets:

[Ukraine to buy ‘up to 100’ French fighter jets, Elysee Palace announces – CNN, Nov 17 2025

Ukraine will purchase “up to 100” French-made Rafale fighter jets as well as anti-air defenses and drones from France, the Elysee Palace confirmed, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Paris on Monday.

The Elysee Palace said that the purchases covered by the letter of intent would span the next 10 years.


The real price for Rafale jets is not known but it has two engines while the Gripen-E is a one engine plane. Rafale is said to be the second most expensive jet fighter flying in western air forces.

When those just ordered planes would arrive is also not known. The capacity to build them is already sold out for the next five years:

The French aviation firm behind the Rafale, Dassault, is looking to boost its production output to four fighter jets per month and the company said it has 233 jets still on order, as of October 7.

The agreement signed Monday is merely a letter of intent, still a way off a concrete purchase, spurring questions as to how Ukraine will pay for the French jets when Ukraine signed a letter of understanding for 100-150 Swedish-made Gripen jets in October.

I wonder about the strategy behind announcing deals that involve such large sums of money Ukraine does not have for planes that will not even be build during the next five years.

What impression does this give to citizens in Europe who get asked to take on more debt for financing the war in Ukraine:

EU leaders agreed last month to meet Ukraine’s “pressing financial needs” for the next two years but stopped short of endorsing a plan to use frozen Russian assets to fund a giant loan to Kyiv, due to concerns raised by Belgium.

Leaders from all EU countries except Hungary asked the Commission to come up with options for financially supporting Ukraine.

“We have identified three main options, i.e. support to be financed by Member States via grants, a limited recourse loan funded by the Union borrowing on the financial markets, or a limited recourse loan linked to the cash balances of immobilised assets,” von der Leyen said in the letter, seen by Reuters.


There are of course more options than continuing to finance the war. But v.d. Leyen rejects to even identify those.

The mentioning of ‘limited recourse‘ by vdL a word game hiding the fact that Ukraine will never repay any loans:

Limited recourse debt is a type of debt that gives the creditor a claim on some but not all of a borrower’s assets if they default on a loan. It sits between full recourse debt and non-recourse debt in terms of the creditor’s ability to seize any of the borrower’s assets beyond the collateral backing the loan.

It is obvious that Ukraine will never be able to pay back such large sums of money. What assets is Ukraine offering as collateral to back up a limited recourse loan? I haven’t heard anyone else mentioning those.

I am very interested to hear v.d. Leyen’s response to that question.

Posted by b on November 17, 2025 at 15:51 UTC | Permalink

******

Bradley won't go on his own
November 17, 11:09 PM

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An ad in the Kyiv metro.

Women have no place in the military?!
But a Bradley won't drive itself.

And what about those heroes from the many manhunt videos? Not suitable for Bradley drivers?

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10192908.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Nov 19, 2025 4:33 pm

Visit to Spain: weapons, political support and a smokescreen to hide corruption
Published by @nsanzo ⋅ 19/11/2025

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Zelensky's visit to Spain, his third since the Russian invasion, unfolded exactly as planned. Since the Ukrainian president abandoned the technocratic outsider persona he adopted when he came to power in 2019, each of his visits has been meticulously coordinated to send a clear and singular message: Western support for what has been presented as a war of national liberation or a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. With the exception of the few instances where Zelensky deviated from the pre-arranged script and created situations in which Donald Trump denied him—the first time publicly and the second time privately—the absolute certainty bestowed upon him by his host, the Ukrainian president has enjoyed receiving precisely what he asked for on his propaganda tours. Yesterday, in Madrid, what Zelensky's message on Sunday indicated was confirmed: a visit that was presumed to be "productive." Zelensky secured historic deals at all three stops on his European tour.

In France, the Ukrainian president, along with his French counterpart, solemnly signed the sale —if a promise to deliver 100 fighter jets over the next few years, whose cost Ukraine does not expect to pay, can even be considered a sale—of 100 Rafale fighter jets. Earlier, Kyiv had also announced the sale of 150 Gripen fighter jets. “Flamingos, Tomahawks, Gripens, and now Rafales. The Ukrainian government has an annual deficit of $35 billion. How can they afford it? Only if someone pays for it. Who? When? How many? There is no plan. It is a catastrophe whose effects on the war are only not devastating thanks to the courage of a few men,” wrote Brazilian military analyst Patricia Marins in a post reacting to the usual comments announcing that the umpteenth arms deal will represent a turning point on the front or a qualitative shift in the current balance of power in the war. “This is pure marketing. It has no basis whatsoever. It’s so empty, without any signed purchase agreement, absolutely nothing except a letter of intent, which is nothing more than marketing. The problem doesn’t lie with the Ukrainians, but with a system that believes everything can be solved through media articles and marketing. And they’re not talking about 10 or 20 planes, but 250. A challenge to the cognitive abilities of those who read the news,” he added, explaining that it’s all about long-term promises with no real effect on the situation on the front lines.

In Spain, beyond the personal satisfaction Zelensky derives from being received by a monarchy or the media spectacle of his visit to Picasso's Guernica, which denounced the crimes of the side defended by some of Zelensky's allies—Praviy Sektor, the organization that produced Ukrainian heroes like Da Vinci, whose website contained a historical narrative clearly glorifying Franco—the visit solidified the Spanish government's position regarding arms purchases for Ukraine. Although Pedro Sánchez had presented himself as the maverick leader resisting the increase in military spending to 5% of GDP demanded by Donald Trump, the reality of international relations is European subservience to the United States. Despite having signed the commitment to increase military spending to the percentage ordered by the United States, the Spanish Government publicly denied that the signing meant what the document described and Spain insisted that its security commitments would be met with an increase to 2.1%, in itself a strong increase in military spending that, until a few months ago, would have been tremendously controversial.

Since then, Washington has repeatedly threatened Spain with tariffs or other reprisals if it fails to comply with the signed agreement. The latest example of public humiliation occurred during Donald Trump's triumphant speech in Egypt following the signing of the "Middle East Peace" agreement, as the United States calls the ceasefire for Gaza. In that speech, from his podium bearing the US presidential seal, surrounded by heads of state and government who, consciously or unconsciously, were acting as a chorus for Donald Trump, the self-proclaimed leader of the free world looked at Pedro Sánchez and asked, "What about GDP?" With this unsubtle reference to increased military spending, Trump reminded Spain that US orders must be obeyed.

“Sánchez initially resisted joining the PURL program—which the Atlantic Alliance launched after Donald Trump warned that he would not supply any more weapons to Kyiv if European countries did not pay for them—as he preferred to donate domestically produced military equipment. The change of heart came after Zelensky warned of the urgent need to replenish their dwindling arsenals of American weaponry and that it is the only one capable of neutralizing Russian attacks in the short term,” wrote El País hours before Zelensky’s arrival in Madrid. The propaganda value of Zelensky’s visit is twofold. Everything was prearranged for the staged change of heart by Spain, which cannot afford to incur Donald Trump's wrath and has finally caved in, joining the mechanism that, on the one hand, guarantees arms supplies to the Ukrainian army and, on the other, consolidates European subordination to the United States, subsidizes the American military-industrial complex, and buys Donald Trump's approval. The Spanish government's shift in position stems less from the reality of the European military industry's weakness compared to its American counterpart, and more from the need to pay up as a gesture of goodwill toward the Trump administration.

The propaganda value of the tour is also significant for Zelensky, especially considering the timing, with his government facing its worst political crisis since taking office. During his trip, the Ukrainian president obtained everything he needed from political leaders. With winter approaching, Ukraine required a new gas transit route, Greece, which until now has relied, in part, not only on liquefied natural gas from the United States but also on the ideologically problematic Russian gas. In France, in addition to a future commitment to sell a hundred high-value French fighter jets, Zelensky secured Macron's reaffirmation that continuing the war is the only possible way to resolve the conflict. “Only Russia is choosing today to continue this war and even intensify it. Since last March, you have clearly reiterated your willingness to seek peace. Only Russia refuses to do so,” the French president stated, conveniently forgetting that no one is offering Moscow negotiations and that Zelensky’s unconditional willingness to meet with Vladimir Putin is contingent on conditions that make any agreement impossible— the EU’s modus operandi for claiming to defend peace while obstructing any attempt at genuine diplomacy aimed at détente. Absolutely focused on increasing the flow of military aid and fighting tooth and nail to obtain the Russian funds held in Belgium to finance three more years of war, the European discourse seeks only to justify this belligerence by blaming the opponent for rejecting diplomacy that no one has offered.

In his final stop at the European Union, Zelensky did not gain any significant military advantage beyond the inherent success of adding another country to the arms procurement mechanism. While several media outlets had reported a commitment of €150-300 million, Spain announced only €100 million. However, Ukrainian media have interpreted this as Spain committing €1 billion to the mechanism, a notion explained by the typical ambiguity of Pedro Sánchez's government. "Spain maintains a long-term commitment to the sovereignty and defense of Ukraine and will maintain it for the duration of the war," Albares commented in an interview on RNE . When asked about the magnitude of this commitment, the minister stated that last year Spain contributed €1 billion for Ukraine to acquire military equipment and that "something similar" is expected this year, as reported by El País . Judging by what the Spanish media has published, this sum will not be allocated entirely to weapons, as the Ukrainian press has interpreted it, but also to areas such as generators. Andriy Ermak's description of the meeting also points in this direction, suggesting a reaffirmation of support, but with commitments that are more vague than the media are implying. “The President of Ukraine also met with the directors of Spain's main defense companies, with the participation of the Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles. The Spanish arms manufacturers presented their production capabilities and showcased equipment such as anti-drone systems, turrets, aerial and ground drones, long-range detection radars, and ammunition. They discussed possible defense cooperation and joint projects,” wrote the controversial head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. In none of these areas can Spanish collaboration be considered decisive.

In any case, the figure is being presented as one of Zelensky's many successes on this tour, achievements that are nothing more than mirages. Because Ukraine will pay more for the gas it received from Russia at generously reduced prices, it is committing to taking on more debt it cannot repay, and it is reaffirming its commitment to war, with the death and destruction it entails, as a long-term state policy. However, during these days, Zelensky has used photo ops with foreign leaders to quell the mounting criticism in Ukraine, where the corruption scandal continues to grow and is currently focused on his indispensable right-hand man, Andriy Ermak, alias Ali Baba. In Kyiv, Petro Poroshenko's faction is demanding that Zelensky resign his entire government, form a new parliamentary coalition and a new cabinet—in which, undoubtedly, they would demand a significant presence—and dismiss Andriy Ermak. According to news reports published by several Ukrainian media outlets, significant dismissals will occur in the government in the coming hours, and the fall of the all-powerful Andriy Ermak is even on the table, which would considerably weaken Volodymyr Zelensky's ability to maneuver, at least internally.

Internal criticism coexists with formal receptions from heads of state and government of the countries that enable the army to continue fighting and keep Ukraine afloat. And in this political-military game, it is foreign support, not that of opposition groups or the national population, that Zelensky knows is paramount. The Ukrainian president has obtained everything he demanded in the three EU countries he has visited. Now, strengthened internationally, he seems to admit that he must confront the internal situation at home. Yesterday, before the start of his marathon day in Spain, the Ukrainian president was demanding. “Ukraine must achieve results every day in its relations with its partners,” he declared. And to that he added a surprise: the “revitalization” of the negotiation process.

Today, Volodymyr Zelensky will be in Turkey to meet with, among others, President Erdogan. Throughout yesterday, there was also talk of a meeting with Steve Witkoff, which ultimately appears to have been postponed, but whose announcement is nonetheless significant. The fact that a meeting between Zelensky and Trump's envoy for Russia is being considered, rather than with Keith Kellogg, the envoy for Ukraine, is a relevant detail that may point to a renewed attempt by the United States to relaunch diplomacy. However, for the moment, Zelensky seems focused on internal negotiations within his own bloc and not on political dialogue with the enemy, from whom he only desires another prisoner exchange. "We are preparing to reactivate negotiations and have developed solutions that we will propose to our partners," Zelensky wrote. For now, Ukraine only wants to establish its red lines and detail the objectives it expects the United States to impose on Russia in negotiations where Moscow will have to accept the conditions offered.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/11/19/visit ... orrupcion/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) has suspended the publication of the "Mindich tapes."
Apparently, this is part of a behind-the-scenes deal in Turkey.
One can only speculate what the cocaine führer demanded in exchange for halting the publication of the incriminating evidence.
Judging by the increased US statements about the possibility of ending the war by the end of November, it cannot be ruled out that the price for halting publication could be agreement to the "Trump-Putin" peace plan.

Meanwhile, the Western press is hinting that the new US proposals simply present Ukraine with the fait accompli.

Regarding rumors about a "new US peace plan,"
based on statements made during Anchorage that the Russian proposals envisage the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Donbas and a freeze on the war to allow for negotiations, a characteristic sign of the actual start of negotiations to end the war would be statements about the Ukrainian Armed Forces' readiness to withdraw from the remaining occupied territories of Donbas. In this case, the war will truly begin to move toward its end within the framework of the agreements between Putin and Trump. So far, there have been no such statements from Kyiv. It's possible that the publication of Mindich's tapes is intended to hasten the emergence of such statements.

I believe the cocaine-fueled Führer is being directly hinted that if he doesn't comply, tapes featuring him will appear in the press.

***

Colonelcassad
The gas gangrene of the Bandera regime has begun.

A few days ago, I said that the Kyiv bloody clown (KKK) still has a chance of twitching on a Western string, but the abscess that has formed in Europe will be lanced in any case.

It seems the abscess is progressing faster than expected.

And we're no longer talking about simply lanced suppuration, but about the gas gangrene of the Bandera regime. Therefore, it will have to self-amputate and cut off the rotting part of its body. Otherwise, the entire deformed KKK organism will inevitably perish.

However, if the amputation proves insufficient, the putrefactive decomposition will continue – and then the death of the Kyiv neo-Nazi regime is inevitable.

However, that's where it deserves to be...

And the best catalyst for its inevitable and painful demise is the success of our Armed Forces.


(c) Medvedev

***

Forwarded from
War against fakes
0:05
Fake news: Russian Armed Forces deliberately struck a residential building in Ternopil to harm civilians, according to Ukrainian Telegram channels.

Truth: Amid the political crisis and corruption scandal escalating in Ukraine, the Kyiv regime desperately needs news that will distract the world from these problems. Therefore, Zelenskyy's propaganda machine seizes on any excuse to denigrate Russia and portrays its own regular mistakes as malicious actions by the Russian Armed Forces.

In reality, the Russian Armed Forces launched a combined strike (drones and cruise missiles) against Ternopil enterprises serving the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Among them is the Orion radio plant, which specializes in the production of various VHF radio communications equipment. In other words, Orion supplies the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a full range of military communications equipment.

Ferrography, which captures a fire near the Orion warehouses and the SE Bordnetze-Ukraine enterprise, clearly demonstrates that the Russian Armed Forces struck military installations. This is also confirmed by numerous photos and videos, which capture not only the fires in the industrial zone but also the moment of the strike on Orion.

As for the damage to residential buildings, it is exclusively due to the work of Ukrainian air defense crews, as evidenced by shrapnel marks typical of surface-to-air missiles.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces were apparently attempting to shoot down a Russian Geran missile, which was targeting a Ukrainian military infrastructure facility. The fact that this was a drone is confirmed by a video of the Orion being hit from a certain angle:

🟢The object in the video has a speed and trajectory that are not typical for a normal target approach. For example, the Geranium-2 dives toward its target at an angle and a speed of approximately 300 kilometers per hour. A cruise missile, even a subsonic one, also descends in a non-vertical direction during a dive and accelerates to speeds in excess of 1,000 kilometers per hour. The Iskander-M missile reaches hypersonic speeds during its approach to its target and also descends at an angle.
🟢The video shows smoke coming from the falling object, indicating that it is faulty.
🟢Most likely, the facility was damaged by Ukrainian air defense fire.

Despite the damage, the drone achieved its target—its strike struck the Orion, meaning it was damaged in close proximity to the facility. This indicates that Ukrainian air defense systems were operating directly over residential areas of the city and that civilian targets were being hit by anti-aircraft missiles.

Clearly, there can be no question of a deliberate Russian attack on the civilian population of Ternopil. Ukraine's haphazard deployment of air defense systems in residential areas is far from the first time this has led to similar, disastrous results for civilians.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – November 18th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Nov 18, 2025

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Активность=Activity. Буферная Зона=Buffer Zone. ЛБС 17.7.2025=Line of Combat Contact July 17th, 2025.

Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "The settlement of Tsegelnoe in the Kharkov Oblast has been liberated."

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After the liberation of the settlement of Sinelnikovo (November 13), the assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces advanced 1 kilometer east and liberated the uninhabited settlement of Tsegelnoe (50°15′10″ N, 36°54′52″ E, listed as uninhabited since 2001, no residents). It is a workers' settlement of a nearby brick factory. In the area of these abandoned structures and a large clay quarry, the enemy had established positions controlling the road from Stary Saltov to Liman to Volchansk (marked with the purple line below) and the access to the urban-type settlement Vilcha.

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The purple markedbroad above continues on to Stary Saltov then onto Kharkov itself.

The Sinelnikovo - Tsegelnoe bridgehead may become the starting line for advancing to the settlement of Liman, and further development towards the defense area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Vilcha and encircling the city of Volchansk from the south by cutting off the railway branch and the T-21-04 highway Volchansk - Bely Kolodez.

Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "Units of the 'East' Group advanced deep into the enemy's defense and liberated the settlement of Nechaevka in the Dnepropetrovsk Oblast."

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ЛБС 28.10.2025=Line of Combat Contact October 28th, 2025. АКТИВНОСТЬ=Activity.

Nothing we didn't anticipate is happening in the Zaporozhye direction - everything is consistent with the situation as we analyzed it previously.

Ours applied pressure to the north and reached the line Gai-Volche-Orestopol and secured their right flank.

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In the center, they drove wedges into the enemy's defense and drew away part of its forces and means. Then - reaching the right bank of the Gaichur River at the shortest stretch, near the settlement of Danilovka, and turning south along the P-85 highway along the right bank of the river, they reached the settlement of Nechaevka (47°51′26″ N, 36°12′29″ E, about 130 inhabitants). To the south, it is 1.5 kilometers to the settlement of Radostnoe, which transitions into Novoe Zaporozhye (too small to mark on the map, but it is basically hugging Novoe Zaporozhye just beneath it), and further, 2 kilometers along a continuous line of residential buildings to Dobropole-Varvarovka. This entire line of positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is controlled by enemy artillery from the watershed ridge on the opposite bank of the Gaichur.

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Reaching the Dobropole (not to be confused with the one near Pokrovsk) area will allow control over the entrances to the Glinyannaya, Srednyaya, and Tselinnaya ravines, through which the enemy supplies its group in the interfluve of Yanchur-Gaichur.

We are waiting for the activation of the southern flank Marfopol - Mirnoe. By all indications, it is this section's turn...

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https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ember-18th

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So, It Is Reported ...

... that the high level Russian official who was supposed to be assassinated by GUR (in reality MI6/CIA) ... well, read yourself.


MOSCOW, Nov 18 - RIA Novosti. A sabotage group, acting in Moscow on the instructions of the Ukrainian special services, was preparing an assassination attempt on the life of the Secretary of the Russia's Security Council Sergei Shoigu at the Troekurovskoye cemetery, the newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets" claims.

(Organized by Kyiv. — Ed. Ed.) sabotage group <... > was preparing an assassination attempt on the secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation at the Troyekurovskoye cemetery Sergei Shoigu", the newspaper said in a statement.


So, somebody in ... not in Kiev (those there already know or sense what's coming to them) but in London and D.C. despite Naryshkin's characterization lacks proper understanding, being fed incessant propaganda and lacking grasp of the proceedings, so to speak, of what, should that terrorist act have succeeded, would follow. I do not want to get into the details of this, but the names of who in the West is behind these types of "operations" are well known.

Ah, wait--look at this:

Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has joined the advisory board of Ukraine’s leading defense company, renowned for its long-range drones capable of striking targets deep inside Russia, as a corruption investigation continues. In an effort to enhance its international reputation, Fire Point is establishing a new factory in Denmark and bringing prominent industry figures on board. It also aims to expand its operations to produce battle-tested cruise missiles, with plans to more than double its current capacity. However, public scrutiny remains intense during an ongoing corruption investigation. Fire Point’s executives insist they have nothing to hide and are operating under strict martial law protocols, even commissioning an independent audit to appease investigators. Critics, however, question the company’s opaque origins and the monopoly of its contracts with the Defense Ministry, and point to alleged links to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ’s notorious associate Tymur Mindich, who is implicated in a major corruption scandal.

Hm, Mike Pompeo--a fanatical Zionist and a product of the USMA at West Point at the time when it started going down hill academically. We all saw the "products" of that generation of graduates (1980s on) elsewhere. So, Pompeo, who is a lawyer and a former CIA Director doesn't understand the point I make non-stop--drones are but a part of the RUK/ROK and in terms of any actual impact on the military-industrial capacity of Russia have negligible effect if any because of the subject which is "taught" in the US military establishment based on fairy tales from Kiev, I am talking about Air Defense, of course. In other words, NATO as a whole has neither resources nor expertise (both military and industrial-scientific) to produce weapons which affect military outcomes on only levels which matter--strategic-operational. So, as was stated not for once, the only weapon they have is terrorism, which is the weapon of the weak. (Video at link.)

If only they all knew that the overwhelming majority of extermination of Nazi army in 404 is done by Russian barrel and rocket artillery and stand-off weaponry. But you cannot stick camera to each 152-mm round or Iskander, so the UAVs take the stage.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/11 ... orted.html

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Russia Matters: Zelenskyy Faces Outrage at Home Over $100M Corruption Scandal as EU Warns Aid Depends on Reform
November 16, 2025 natyliesb
Russia Matters, 11/14/25

Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies (known by their acronyms NABU and SAPO) announced on Nov. 10 that they had uncovered a $100 million kickback and money laundering scheme at the Energoatom state-owned nuclear energy company.1 The 15-month inquiry, which has been codenamed “Midas,”2 focuses on allegations of illegal payments by Energoatom contractors—typically 10–15% of contract value—to retain business.3 Suspects reportedly include Minister of Justice Herman Halushchenko, Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s onetime business partner, Timur Mindich.4 Mindich—who is suspected of having allegedly run the kickback scheme—fled Ukraine as investigators closed in, while the two ministers resigned. With arrests already underway (prosecutors named seven suspects, with five detained), Zelenskyy—who was elected president in April 2019 on a promise to root out the pervasive graft,5 but who then came under strong fire at home and in the West in summer 2025 for attempting to defangthe two anti-corruption agencies—called for arrests, promised a reset at Energoatom and sanctions on those involved. The scandal has fueled public outrage at home—particularly amid the ongoing blackouts caused by Russian attacks—and has increased pressure on Zelenskyy’s government to deliver lasting accountability.6
European leaders issued warnings to Ukraine this week, saying that continued military and financial support depends on Kyiv taking decisive action against corruption. European Commission spokesman Guillaume Mercier called on Ukraine to protect its anti-corruption bodies and ensure clean handling of international financial support. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told Zelenskyy that Europe expects Ukraine to advance anti-corruption reforms, while German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stressed that Western aid hinges on stronger anti-corruption measures. Dutch Finance Minister Eelco Heinen also emphasized that EU aid packages are conditional on Ukraine’s fight against graft. Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini warned that more aid could prolong the war and worsen corruption. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called for a freeze on EU funds to Ukraine, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared that “the golden illusion of Ukraine is falling apart.” Asked if the disclosures have shaken EU confidence, Lithuanian Finance Minister Kristupas Vaitiekunas responded in blunt terms: “Maybe, but what other options do we have?” according to The Washington Post.
In the period of Oct. 14–Nov. 11, 2025, Russian forces gained 165 square miles of Ukrainian territory, an increase over the 154 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period, according to the Nov. 12, 2025, issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. This week, Russian forces have been advancing into the eastern towns of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, which they are “very likely” to seize, according to ISW. Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT reportedly announced on Nov. 12 that Russia’s gain of 15 square miles (40 square kilometers), made in the preceding 24 hours, was the largest daily territorial gain by the Russian troops since the start of the year. DeepState also reported that Russian forces captured the following settlements in southeastern and eastern Ukraine on Nov. 7–14: Novoe, Novouspenivske, Rivnopillia, Uspenivka, Katerynivka, Novomykolaivka, Yablukove and, most recently, Stepova Novoselivka. Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 170 square miles, according to the RM card.
Russia launched 98 ballistic missiles into Ukraine in October, a record since observations began in May 2023, with only 17 intercepted by Ukraine, according to the card.
Ukrainian prosecutors estimate that 290,000 cases have been opened for desertion or absence without leave since the start of the war, highlighting the severe manpower crisis facing Ukrainian forces, according to The New York Times. In October alone, nearly 20,000 such cases were recorded—the highest monthly figure this year—as Russian troops exploit gaps along thinly held lines in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, where just four to seven infantrymen defend each kilometer of the 1,000 kilometer frontline, according to Financial Times. “The result [of desertions] is that the [Ukrainian] land forces are not expanding but are actually declining in numbers,’’ Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, told FT.
A German federal police investigation has concluded that an elite Ukrainian military unit, directed by Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhniy, was responsible for the September 2022 Nord Stream pipeline bombings, aiming to disrupt Russian energy revenues and Moscow’s ties with Germany, The Wall Street Journal reported. Investigators relied on surveillance photos and boat rental records, issuing European arrest warrants for three Ukrainian soldiers and four divers.7 The findings have triggered diplomatic friction: Poland has refused to extradite one suspect, hailing him as a hero, while Italy is considering a similar extradition request, according to WSJ. The case has intensified political divisions within Germany—where the far-right has capitalized on public anger over energy prices—and across Europe, straining unity and stirring debates about continued aid to Kyiv. [As regular readers of this blog know, this narrative of who and how the Nordstream pipeline bombing was carried out is not very credible. Apparently, German authorities must decide on a narrative that doesn’t admit their own cravenness in allowing self-righteous allies to destroy their infrastructure and economy. – Natylie]
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the Russia-China Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation remains fully relevant and that the approaching expiration date of July 16, 2026, will not go unnoticed by either side, according to Kommersant. Lavrov indicated that Moscow and Beijing are working on extending or updating the treaty as its term nears completion, according to Kommersant. It will be interesting to see if there will be new definitions of the Russian-Chinese relationship if the signatories update the treaty rather than extend it.*

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/11/rus ... on-reform/

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The Khartia Corps

Case study in 'Azovization'? Zelensky's latest SS scandal. Timothy Snyder's favorite Colombian mercenaries. Neo-Nazis and 'NATO standards'
Moss Robeson
Nov 17, 2025

During a recent trip to frontline areas near the encircled strategic city of Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian president, his chief of staff, and commander-in-chief visited the 1st Azov Corps from the National Guard of Ukraine, and they found themselves standing next to a neo-Nazi flag, awarding soldiers who appeared to be wearing SS bolts on their arms. Actually, that PR debacle (which the international press has dutifully ignored) occurred at another command post — a brigade from the National Guard’s 2nd Khartia Corps.

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The neo-Nazi flag in question not only featured an Azov-style wolfsangel but, as another researcher noted, includes “the cog-and-wreath that emphasizes this is a ‘social’ nationalism.” (Ukrainian Nazis often prefer to call themselves “social nationalists” instead of “national socialists.”)
This year’s “corps reform” in the National Guard of Ukraine (NGU) elevated the 12th Azov and 13th Khartia brigades, which still exist within the larger units. It was the 4th Rubizh brigade that Zelensky visited from the 2nd NGU corps, another “elite” unit, which has two battalions (3rd and 4th) affiliated with the far-right political party “Svoboda.” Upon closer inspection, the “SS” troops were “trolling.” Their chevrons did not contain Nazi runes but a stylized 44, as in “4th brigade, 4th battalion,” as well as the fascist “44 Rules of Life of a Ukrainian Nationalist” from the 1930s.

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The prevalence of soldiers from this “SS” battalion at the ceremony, and a neo-Nazi (“social-nationalist”) flag prominently displayed at the Rubizh command post, obviously raises some questions about the brigade, which was “established as an elite unit trained and organized under NATO standards.” The Azov and Khartia brigades also pride themselves on training according to NATO standards, “to be a model” for a “new Ukrainian army” liberated from the “Soviet-era mindset.”

The famous historian Timothy Snyder is helping “pro-Ukraine” internet trolls to fundraise for Rubizh and other brigades of the 2nd NGU corps, including one which has a symbol that creates the visual impression of a swastika. But it’s the PR-driven Khartia brigade that appears to be Snyder’s favorite—a watered-down Azov copycat unit, led by a former Rubizh commander who quotes 20th century Ukrainian fascists. International volunteers have called it “the worst brigade,” but in another sense, it is an elite unit, founded by an oligarch who is “convinced the key to success is ‘radical’ reform of Ukraine’s military.”

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Timothy Snyder with Vsevolod Kozhemyako, oligarch Khartia founder

The Azov movement has its “White Fuhrer” (Andriy Biletsky), and Khartia has Vsevolod Kozhemyako, the founder and CEO of Agrotrade Group, “one of Ukraine’s largest grain production, storage and export companies.” In 2003, he received a degree from the Interregional Academy of Personnel Management, a private university in Kyiv that the historian Per Rudling wrote about in 2006 as a pillar of organized antisemitism in Ukraine. Now a proud nationalist who praises the memory of Stepan Bandera, even before 2022, Kozhemyako appears to have been a supporter of the “Da Vinci Wolves,” a far-right militia affiliated with the Nazi-infested “Right Sector” movement.

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Kozhemyako visiting the Da Vinci Wolves in 2019

Whereas the Azov units originated in an infamous volunteer battalion from 2014 and the NGU Azov Regiment made famous by the Russian siege of Mariupol, Khartia has also become “one of Ukraine’s most famous units” and much more quickly expanded, thanks to its unique financing and PR. This year, the country’s largest oil and gas producer, Ukrnafta, raised 100 million hryvnia (~$2.4 million) for the Khartia Corps. Just a year after Kozhemyako formed a territorial defense unit in March 2022, it joined the National Guard as a brigade. According to Forbes Ukraine,

If we describe Kozhemyako’s role at Khartia in business terms, he is an executive chairman, a founder who has moved away from operational management and focused on strategic interactions with the government, key partners, suppliers, and thought leaders. His interlocutors include [Ukrainian writer/singer] Serhiy Zhadan and Howard Buffett, [Ukrainian singer/politician] Slavko Vakarchuk and [former CEO of Google] Eric Schmidt, generals and deputy prime ministers, owners and managers of private companies with revenues in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Serhiy Zhadan, a famous poet in Ukraine, is a friend of Vsevolod Kozhemyako and the most prominent “culture warrior” in Khartia, who represents the unit publicly (and even wrote its anthem) but doesn’t actually fight. As “Events in Ukraine” tells us, “This phenomenon of culture-warriors is particularly widespread in the 13th ‘Khartiya’ brigade of the 2nd Corps of the National Guard.”

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Zhadan, wearing a Khartia shirt that reminds me of those from the NGU Azov unit

Khartia is supported by a high-level marketing agency in Ukraine, the Fedoriv Group, which started to work with the Ministry of Digital Transformation in 2022, and launched the wartime United24 fundraising platform and media brand on behalf of the Office of the President. Andriy Fedoriv became a “great friend for me and Khartia” says Kozhemyako. “He helped me build a creative team within Khartia, and then worked with us and continues to work on creating and promoting the brand.”

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Kozhemyako and Fedoriv, CEO of the Fedoriv Group

This year, United24 highlighted the Khartia brigade as a unit that is “changing the battlefield” with “Robotic Combat Systems.” The Azovites pride themselves as pioneers in this field, and I’ll be writing more about that soon. Andriy Biletsky, commander of the Azovite 3rd Army Corps, told the Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference in Kyiv this past summer, “the revolution of ground-based robotic systems … will radically change the battlefield.”

Ihor Obolensky, commander of the 2nd Khartia Corps, also remotely joined this panel discussion at YES 2025 with former CIA director David Petraeus, former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt, and Ukrainian military brass. (Obolensky spoke at YES 2024 as well.) According to an ideological officer in Khartia, “our commander, Colonel Ihor Obolensky, can say in a conversation: ‘As Dontsov claimed…’ or ‘According to Konovalets…’” referring to the main ideologue of genocidal Ukrainian fascism (Dmytro Dontsov) and the founder of the fascist Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (Yevhen Konovalets).

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Obolensky, who worked at Agrotrade before the 2022 Russian invasion

Before the corps reform, Obolensky commanded the Khartia brigade, which established a nationalist ideological department or “Khorunza service,” inspired by the Azov units, that uses the emblem of “Dontsov’s beast.” Khartia now promotes glorification of Stepan Bandera, the 1940s Ukrainian Insurgent Army, and even the pro-Nazi monarchist Pavlo Skoropadsky. Azov salutes and Azovite brands such as Company Group Team (CGT) are commonly seen in the Khartia brigade. For example, in a promotional video published this year by Khartia, and still pinned on the Facebook page of the 2nd NGU Corps, we can see soldiers making Azov salutes, a tank emblazoned with an emblem of the Wehrmacht, and someone wearing a CGT shirt who appears to be making a Nazi salute while riding another tank. (Video at link.)

There is another ugly side to the Khartia brigade, which has reportedly “developed a reputation as an elite brigade, making it highly desirable for foreign soldiers seeking opportunities to fight in Ukraine.” To hear it from members of the “Ukraine Foreign Legion” community on Reddit, dedicated to “news and information about joining foreign units in Ukraine,” Khartia is among “the worst” to join, at least for international volunteers.

Adorable_Class_4733 (4 months ago): Khartiia is insane in the sane that just when you think it can’t possibly get any worse, it does. Nobody that has ever served in another unit and then came to Khartiia has ever liked it. I regret ever recruiting for this unit but I was naive and thought that maybe if I bring some good soldiers the problems would go away. They didn’t. Every person there with experience unanimously agree it’s the worst brigade they have ever seen. The battalion commanders either are completely dumb and retarded or intentionally lie to their soldiers saying the russians are all dead and they’re surrendering and that we cut off their logistics route and that you’re gonna be sent to clear trenches when you’re actually going on a suicide assault mission. … Khartiia is REALLY good at propaganda and hiding this shit, they had a camera crew following us 24/7, camera crew in the command centers, everywhere. But that’s it. They suck at everything else.

ATLAS_UA (4 months ago): I dont use reddit but i made an account just to write this. I fought in Ukraine on every front and this brigade is the worst it is the worst brigade I worked in. They said I will redo basic training when I came to this unit so I told them to fuck off and then they tried to send me on a mission one hour after with zero bullets or equipment. I agreed to go to the mission after a few days … I kept training for a while after this mission, really bad shitty training and then did another mission with a epileptic company commander who had a seizure in the middle of the mission after he slip in a mortar crater in nighttime. I guarantee you he bribed someone I don’t know why they made a epileptic guy company commander. and also everyone abuses drugs there. the platoon commander consumes drugs and alcohol all the time he is an alcoholic.

DonaFlotilde (1 week ago): I reactivated my account just to leave a comment here for whoever is still in doubt if they should join khartia, as i saw some posts asking about the unit … (forgive my english its not my first language) … khartia training is in the least mediocre, my training was literally how to run and how to shoot standing and kneeling, thats it, 1 month, doing this. … they call our group again, this time its an assault mission. Nice. sergeant, who is in ukraine for 5 months, says its an assault so we gonna stay there 5 days maximum, the vehicle will drop us 500m from assault point. … ended up walking 8km to position, we gotta stay in trench until we get green light. 13 days passed and we learn the fuckin assault point is 20 km away and we know theres no fuckin vehicles. they call us to advance. our guide gets lost he doesnt know how to use the FUCKIN COMPASS We walk 20km away to position, theres PLUS 4KM OF MINED OPEN FIELD TO REACH THE FIRST RUSSIAN POSITION AND A BUNCH OF FPV TRYING TO HIT US, AND OUR FUCKIN UNIT GAVE US 4 MAGAZINES, 2 GRENADES, AND ONE BOTTLE OF WATER FOR OUR WHOLE GROUP. WE HAD TO RUN, WE DISCOVER THAT THE ONE LINE OF ENEMY TRENCH IS ACTUALLY A RUSSIAN SECTOR WITH 4 LINES, 2 BMPS, AND I DONT EVEN KNOW HOW MANY FUVKIN SOLDIERS, SINCE WE MANAGED TO CLEAN ONLY THE FIRST POSITION. … [After the mission] they put me and another guy inside a a car, drive us to the woods and beat the shit out of us. they got pissed cuz of the report accuse us of treason and desertion cuz we didnt advance 2 weeks they hold our documents and cellphones. we never left the base we didnt advance cuz no fuckin ammo and no fuckin nothing

FishAndChipsSalad (1 month ago): Just don’t! I’ve been contacted to 3 brigades and hands down Khartiia is the worst in every way. Everything from shoddy equipment, appalling command and reckless missions. I was unfortunate to suffer my worst injury in this sorry excuse for a unit and naturally received no compensation at all. On top of that you will be fighting alongside the Guajiro International Unit... These twats are often worse than the russian terrorists


The Spanish-speaking Guajiro unit largely consists of right-wing Colombian soldiers who decided to fight in Ukraine instead of serve under the leftist president Gustavo Petro. “Perhaps hundreds of Colombians have passed through our brigade,” said a deputy battalion commander from Khartia, which claims that the Guajiro unit “undertakes extremely challenging combat missions.” They might have inspired the Azovite 3rd Assault Brigade (that now spearheads the 3rd Army Corps) to form a “Spanish Storm Company.” Earlier this year, members of Khartia even trained with the 3rd Assault Brigade.

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Khartia training with the 3rd Assault Brigade

In recent days, since Zelensky’s visit to the Donetsk region, the 2nd Khartia Corps of the National Guard hosted a delegation of NATO ambassadors from the United States, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, and Canada. Everyone seems to love the Khartia brigade: NATO, the historian Timothy Snyder, the artist Ai Weiwei, and even the “White Fuhrer” has said that it’s one of the best in Ukraine. But in my opinion, the most interesting thing about Khartia is the convergence of Banderite memory warriors and the “Azovization” of the Ukrainian armed forces—to be continued on my other Substack…

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Ai Weiwei visiting the Khartia brigade in the summer of 2025

https://azovlobby.substack.com/p/the-khartia-corps

******

Latest graft scandal in Ukraine won’t worry Zelensky. Who needs a 100 million bucks?

Martin Jay

November 18, 2025

What Myndich was doing was perfectly normal for a government minister or a senior official within Zelensky’s cohort of cronies.

The recent corruption scandal in Ukraine has been making the headlines in the western press with some enlightened so-called ‘experts’ predicting the downfall of Volodymyr Zelensky himself. The case, involving the possible apprehension of 100m USD in the energy sector, which saw two of its top architects flee to Israel minutes before they were due to be arrested, is a fascinating story with many layers which should be held up to the light to gain some understanding of the culture of corruption. But Zelensky falling on his sword because of it is pure fantasy by those zealous writers who are ill-informed, based in the U.S. or UK and rely too heavily – normally – on the media factory that the U.S. has created in Kiev.

What is especially fascinating about this assertion and those who are writing it is that they are working for big media titles in the west who are starting to look to the opposition in Ukraine to ‘source’ their colourful copy. Although this is a significant milestone in how the West looks at the Ukraine war, and in particular the tyrant at the heart of it, like a spider in the centre of a web, there is a long way to go before a 100 million dollar racket can topple Zelensky.

For one, there needs to be context about the sum. 100 million USD dollars, which was to be shared with 10 people hardly adds up to much, in a country which has been given 400 billion and which many western analysts believe has been diverted into the offshore accounts of Zelensky and his cabal over the course of the war – a scenario that the Trump administration is waking up to more each day, which EU leaders still turn a blind eye to.

The arrests of the two chief culprits Aleksei Chernyshov and Timur Myndich, very nearly didn’t happen at all, even on paper. Both tipped off by Ukraine’s infamous anti-corruption agency’s move on them, they fled the country to Israel, sparking speculation that Israel plays a considerable role in Ukraine’s foreign policy and is closer to manipulating actions on the ground much more than we earlier assumed. Yet their activity gives a glimpse into the vastness of corruption, how the business of graft on such an industrial scale as Ukraine under Zelensky is really the basis of the whole economy and Zelensky’s identity. The war needs to be kept going at any cost, not only to keep Zelensky in power and far from the madding crowd of the masses who put him in power in the first place under the auspices of democratic process but also for the racket of war to keep functioning. What Myndich was doing was perfectly normal for a government minister or a senior official within Zelensky’s cohort of cronies. Skimming from the top.

But what is not reported by these call centre journalists is how close Myndich was to him or how he (Zelensky) had the previous investigating officer of the anti-corruption unit arrested on dubious charges when he earlier got close to nailing Myndich who has been friends with Zelensky since at least 2008, when he introduced the future president to one of the country’s most powerful oligarchs, Igor Kolomoisky. The billionaire crafted a president out of the popular comic through a hit television show before finally in 2023 Zelensky throwing him in jail. Some analysts in Russia are speculating that the attempted arrest of Myndich, while certainly a blow to Zelensky, was a deeper wound as the plot came from the prison cell of Kolomoisky, who Zelensky visited several times both in Israel and in Switzerland before he became president, when the billionaire was his sugar daddy, mentor and financier.

But betrayal is part of the scorpion soup of Ukraine’s corruption. Zelensky wasted no time courting the media spotlight over the Myndich affair by pretending to be behind the corruption crackdown. The relations or rather the smoke and mirrors which the relations move is what is fascinating. Kolomoisky is showing that even from prison, he still has powers and that Zelensky’s infrastructure isn’t as tough as many might think. Western media got it wrong about the Myndich affair rocking Zelensky’s multibillion dollar business, even though the U.S. is reported to be investigating some 40 billion dollars which got swallowed by the racket that Zelensky heads. The takeaway lesson is that a small matter of a 100 million dollars is hardly worth anyone getting excited. Another lesson might be that Ukraine’s opposition and Kolomoisky are getting comfortable in this role of feeding media with corruption stories, hoping that they will be part of an inevitable downfall. Zelensky himself must have noticed how western media isn’t lapping up everything that it is spoon-fed any more and so the going is going to get tough.

But we have no idea how long this can continue as Trump is so capricious in his handling of the Ukraine file. Perhaps this latest scandal should be filed under ‘K’ though rather than ‘M’.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... ion-bucks/

*****

They wanted to bomb Voronezh
November 19, 11:09

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Early in the morning, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed two American MLRS systems that had attempted to fire ATACMS missiles at Voronezh during the night. (Video at link.)

Two launchers and up to 10 crew members were destroyed.
The operation was carried out using Iskander SRBMs. We also note the work of aerial reconnaissance, which provided guidance and objective control of the target.
Four ATACMS missiles were shot down near Voronezh, with debris from one damaging the roof of a gerontology center.

Regarding the missiles themselves:

Ukraine and the United States launched an ATACMS ballistic missile strike on Voronezh. All four missiles were intercepted by S-400 and Pantsir systems, just as air defenses had previously shot down twelve ATACMS missiles near the Crimean Bridge.

The debris with factory markings has already been distributed to specialized sites - this is the MGM-104E Block 1A ( https://t.me/infomil_live/24286 ) Unitary with an M48 high-explosive fragmentation warhead, a WDU-18/B warhead from the Harpoon.

The use of ATACMS is important not only as a long-range strike on Russian territory. It automatically confirms the direct involvement of the United States. And not in the abstract - but personally by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The Wall Street Journal pointed out ( https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-s ... a-432a12e1 ) that the decision on each launch is made by Hegseth, and the launchers themselves are modified so that the destruction of targets in Russia is possible only after the American side provides a complete flight data package.

This is confirmed by data ( https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us ... 2025-10-01 ) Reuters - Washington provides Kyiv with not just fragments of intelligence, but a full set of ISR components (satellite imagery, air defense bypass routes, target designation). Without them, ATACMS turns into an ordinary unguided munition.

The same picture was revealed by a leak ( https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wh ... 2024-03-04 ) of Bundeswehr negotiations - it describes how the US, UK, and France are working either in a remote data download mode or through specialists "on the ground." The reason is that programming a route to bypass Russia's layered air defenses requires access to restricted terrain maps and NATO satellite arrays in real time. Ukraine lacks such resources. CSIS's

analysis ( https://www.csis.org/analysis/seven-con ... kraine-war ) articulates this openly: without the American satellite network, reconnaissance aircraft, and command groups, "precision-guided missiles lose their effectiveness," meaning their use is only possible in conjunction with NATO infrastructure.

Moscow's position was clear in advance.

In 2024, Putin explicitly stated that strikes with Western long-range weapons on Russian territory would mean "the direct participation of NATO countries—the United States, European countries—in the war in Ukraine," since target designation, route calculations, and maintenance are performed by Western specialists.

This is another strike that is technically impossible without a direct decision from the US Secretary of War and the operational participation of the US and NATO. Previously, the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Pentagon launched ATACMS strikes on the Kursk and Bryansk regions.

https://t.me/mayday_7700/5003 - zinc

UPDATE: Regarding the Russian Ministry of Defense video published this morning about the destruction of two MLRS systems,

it turns out the Ministry of Defense posted footage of the 2024 missile strikes as new footage for some reason. Someone will get in trouble for leaking an old video on the Ministry of Defense's official channels.


https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10195454.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Nov 20, 2025 12:44 pm

Witkoff's "New" Proposal
Published by @nsanzo ⋅ 20/11/2025

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Standing before Picasso's Guernica, Volodymyr Zelensky concluded a tour in Madrid in which he can boast of having achieved, at least on paper, significant results. The problem for Ukraine is that the agreements presented at grand events surrounded by flags and prop fighter jets , intended to showcase military strength and European unity, are merely theoretical. Commenting on the commitment to acquire 100 French fighter jets just hours after announcing the purchase of 150 Swedish aircraft and the contract for liquefied natural gas transferred from Greece, British historian Owen Matthews yesterday criticized the Ukrainian president's magical thinking and his detachment from reality, something that, in fact, has been occurring, at least in the military sphere, since mid-2023. It was then that it became unequivocally clear that the military objectives set by Ukraine—the complete defeat of the Russian Federation, which would be subjected to a final treaty in which it would have no say, only the capacity to sign its surrender—were unfeasible. The passage of time adds the pressure of the economic situation to this lack of realism. “Kyiv is nowhere near having enough money to cover the $60 billion budget shortfall, let alone buy billions worth of aircraft. Ukraine, by its own admission, will run out of money in February unless the EU agrees to grant it a €140 billion loan secured by Russian assets held primarily in Belgium’s Euroclear international banking repository. But there is no hope that it can repay that loan unless the Kremlin is somehow forced to pay war reparations—a very remote possibility,” Matthews writes.

In Kyiv, even before Zelensky's return from Turkey, where he met with Erdoğan yesterday, the nationalist opposition—that is, Petro Poroshenko's party and the liberal-nationalist technocrat Holos—has begun to intensify its pressure campaign to extract significant concessions from the president. “No major politician in Ukraine is calling for Zelensky's resignation, and with elections suspended due to martial law, he cannot be removed by a vote. However, the growing movement surrounding corruption poses serious risks for him,” writes The New York Times , which quotes Poroshenko's party as saying that “the country has finally grasped the meaning of the expression 'blood money'.” This is an interesting statement considering that the case against its leader, former President Petro Poroshenko, is precisely for doing business with the other side of the war, at that time the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.

However, Poroshenko's European Solidarity movement, which has been laying the groundwork for months to seize the opportunity, has begun to pull strings both politically in Europe and in the media. It has always been clear that the articles in Newsweek, The Economist , and especially Politico criticizing Zelensky's authoritarianism, the excessive centralization of power in the President's Office, and Ermak's poor relationship with the two major US parties stemmed from an attempt by Poroshenko and his inner circle to regain lost political ground and return to power. The corruption scandal that erupted last week, particularly Andriy Ermak's appearance in the recordings, has created the perfect moment to exert political pressure for a national unity government in which the president would be relegated to a largely symbolic role, serving a new parliamentary coalition that, according to Ukrainian media, would be comprised of the nationalist opposition and the faction of Zelensky's party that has distanced itself from the president. In reality, this would be the aggrieved faction of Servant of the People, disgruntled with the president or his right-hand man, as is reportedly the case with David Arajamia, leader of the party's parliamentary faction. The fact that figures like Razumkov, purged by Zelensky for their excessive political presence in his early years, have been seen in recent days indicates a clear predisposition toward the movements initiated by Oleksiy Honcharenko and other prominent figures in Poroshenko's party.

Bad news never comes alone; to the internal political pressure must be added the difficulties on the front. The Russian advance in Porkrovsk and Mirnograd is consolidating—despite Ukraine's refusal to acknowledge reality—the situation toward Zaporizhzhia is becoming more complicated, and on the Seversk front, where Russia had so far failed to achieve any success, the fanatical pro-Ukrainian journalist and Bildt correspondent Julian Roepcke reported yesterday that Russian troops have entered the city, where they reportedly control approximately 20% of the area. The result of all this is the weakest political moment of Volodymyr Zelensky's entire presidency, as he is being pressured to dismiss arguably his most important advisor, Andriy Ermak, who accompanied him during the negotiations in Turkey yesterday and who has not only carried out political and diplomatic work but has also served as a scapegoat against whom all accusations have been directed. The loss of Ermak would leave Zelensky without that shield that protects him, for example, from accusations of authoritarianism and centralization of power.

The recent tour has served to project a presidential image and reaffirm European support and the continued provision of military and economic aid to sustain the war and the state. However, the main player in Ukrainian politics is not on the European continent but on the other side of the Atlantic. According to yesterday's edition of Axios , a publication through which Trumpism filters what it wants to turn into a topic of conversation, the United States is preparing a new attempt to achieve peace. This leak coincides with Zelensky's announcement of his willingness to revive diplomacy and his statement regarding the proposals that Ukraine has reportedly prepared to present to its Western partners.

“The 28-point US plan is inspired by President Trump’s successful push to reach a settlement in Gaza. A senior Russian official told Axios that he is optimistic about the plan. It is still unclear what the position of Ukraine and its European allies will be,” writes the US outlet, adding that, according to its sources, “the 28 points of the plan are divided into four general categories: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and the future US relationship with Russia and Ukraine.” Throughout the day, several media outlets attempted to add some context to this purported plan, which is widely assumed to be the result of last month’s talks between Kirill Dmitriev, Vladimir Putin’s envoy, and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to Russia and a close confidant of the US president. According to several US media outlets that provided further details to Axios ’s brief report , the current proposal was reportedly made without the participation of Ukraine or the US’s European allies. “The mood in the White House is optimistic, and it appears the plan will be presented to Zelensky as a done deal. ‘What we’re going to present is reasonable,’ a senior White House official told Dasha [Burns, White House correspondent for Politico]. The Trump administration believes that Zelensky, under pressure both on the battlefield and at home (due to a growing corruption scandal), will have to accept what is being offered,” Politico reported , quoting a senior US official who stated that the opinion of European countries is irrelevant and only “Ukraine’s acceptance” matters. All these media outlets assume Russia’s acceptance of a plan in which they presume it has been the driving force and that the United States is pressuring Ukraine to comply. The proposal would come at a time when Zelensky is experiencing a perfect storm of military, economic, and political pressure.

Christopher Miller, a journalist known for his reliable sources, stated yesterday afternoon that “the plan was conveyed to Kyiv this week by US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who met in Miami with Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s current Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council and former Defense Minister, to review its 28 points.” His sources told the Financial Times that “Witkoff had made it clear he wanted Zelensky to accept the terms, even though they included points that have long been red lines for Ukraine.”

“According to three people with direct knowledge of the document, the draft plan would require Ukraine to cede the rest of the eastern Donbas region—including lands currently under Kyiv’s control—and halve the size of its armed forces. Crucially, it also requires Ukraine to relinquish key categories of weaponry and would include a reduction in U.S. military aid, which has been vital to its defense, potentially leaving the country vulnerable to future Russian aggression. It would also stipulate that Russian be recognized as the official state language in Ukraine and grant official status to the local branch of the Russian Orthodox Church—provisions that echo the Kremlin’s long-standing political objectives,” Miller says of this draft agreement that was reportedly presented to Kyiv, but which raises questions about the extent to which it is a proposal from the White House or from Steve Witkoff.

If these are indeed the terms of the proposal—undoubtedly the most pro-Russian of all the drafts negotiated this year—the plan Witkoff hopes Ukraine will accept would entail territorial losses, limitations on the Ukrainian military, and, according to Oliver Carroll of The Economist , a ban on foreign troops in Ukraine and even on foreign diplomatic aircraft. None of the initial articles detailing the plan mention the European Union or NATO, aspects that any proposed resolution would have to include. Only in the last few hours have several media outlets suggested a multi-year moratorium on seeking NATO membership, a slight concession to Ukraine, which would also receive security guarantees from the United States.

“Ending a complex and deadly war like the one in Ukraine requires a broad exchange of serious and realistic ideas. Achieving a lasting peace will require both sides to accept difficult but necessary concessions. Therefore, we are developing and will continue to develop a list of possible ideas to end this war, based on input from both sides of the conflict,” Marco Rubio wrote tonight in an ambiguous message that doesn't quite clarify whether it's a form of support for Witkoff's plan—whose approval by Donald Trump is still uncertain, as conflicting reports mean we must wait a few hours for reactions from both sides—or his subtle rejection due to a lack of realism.

Regarding the terms of the alleged plan, Christopher Miller commented that “this really means that Russia’s position remains maximalist and Putin has made no concessions. On the contrary, he has dug in. And the Trump administration has grown impatient with the lack of efforts to end the war and is now demanding progress, probably at Ukraine’s expense.” For the moment, the main significance of the plan is that only the most pro-Russian portion, unacceptable to Ukraine and its European allies, has been leaked. Later that afternoon, veteran pro-Ukrainian journalist Michel Weiss shared a post by Steve Witkoff on social media. “Looks like they got it from K,” wrote Trump’s envoy for Russia before deleting the message shortly afterward. “It appears Steve Witkoff tweeted what must have been a direct message, saying that the content of this much-discussed Axios article must have come from ‘K.’ He’s almost certainly referring to Kirill Dmitriev, who is quoted in the article. But it seems the Russian side is leaking this for some reason,” Weiss wrote.

According to Maria Zakharova and Dmitry Peskov, Moscow continues to adhere to the "understanding" reached last August in Alaska and has no knowledge of a US proposal. There is no triumphalism in the Kremlin, only caution. Beyond the possible theatrics on the part of the Kremlin, leaking such a favorable proposal without consulting the United States' European allies would be an extremely clumsy step on the part of any Russian representative. Although possible, especially given Dmitriev's excessive optimism, other potential sources of the leak must be considered. The "K" mentioned by Witkoff could, of course, be Dmitriev, but also General Kellogg, whose vision for resolving the war in Ukraine differs significantly from that of the more pro-Russian wing of the Trump administration. In that case, the leak would give European countries the opportunity to react and, as they have already begun to do, reject any proposal other than the "just peace" demanded by Zelensky in his Peace Formula or Victory Plan .

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/11/20/nueva ... e-witkoff/

Google Translator

*******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

The Battle of Volchansk is Nearing its End

. Fighting in Volchansk is gradually drawing to a close. Soldiers from the 128th Brigade have advanced into the city itself in recent weeks.

The majority of the town has come under Russian control. Our troops are clearing basements and finishing off scattered enemy groups within the city.

Russian forces have already taken the border highway and have also advanced east past the L-29 monument. Resistance is being observed near the hangars in the southernmost part of the city.

Further south, the 82nd Regiment has cleared Sinelnikovo and the forested areas between Sinelnikovo and Vilcha, fully securing the victory in this area.

Tsegelnoye (Kirpichnoye) has also been liberated. Furthermore, Russian troops have advanced to the outskirts of Vilcha and Liman.

Clashes are currently occurring in Vilcha and on the outskirts of Liman, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are fighting back and even launched a couple of counterattacks, resulting in the recapture of a couple of houses for the day.

But the next day they were driven out again. Methodically and gradually, our soldiers are storming and advancing in Vilcha and Liman, driving out the Ukrainian forces house by house.

***

Colonelcassad
Key points from Dmitry Peskov's new briefing:

- Putin's direct line will not feature live broadcasts from the field; citizens will record their own video messages;

- Peskov is confident that the president's direct line will cover messages from across the country;

- A Kremlin spokesman urged people not to be afraid of using AI in preparing Putin's direct line: the president resolves all problems himself;

- Any time is right for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict;

- Peskov considered it premature to talk about a tribunal for the Kyiv regime, "the time for accusations and convictions will begin after the completion of the Second World War";

- There are currently no consultations as such between Russia and the United States on Ukraine, although contacts are generally ongoing;

- Russia is doing everything possible to ensure the security of Kaliningrad amid statements from Europe;

- The Ministry of Defense should comment on the UK's accusations of targeting pilots with lasers.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Yermak must go?

Who must go? Zelensky's parliamentary majority disintegrating. Operation NUG.
Events in Ukraine
Nov 19, 2025

The walls are closing in for Mr Zelensky. My readers will know that I’ve been skeptical in the past about grand predictions of the president’s imminent fall. But things are looking different now.

The strategy isn’t new. Zelensky’s fate is to be reduced to the role of an impotent British queen. All his ministers must go. Ukraine’s parliament wants to take control from Zelensky’s plotting viziers in the President’s Office.

But Zelensky, at least so far, is to stay. The reason for such respect towards Zelensky is dictated by the war — the western partners fear that a total vacuum of power could lead to chaos and major Russian victories.

Anyway, it’s never really ministers that have mattered that much. The opposition knows it, hence their other demand — to remove the all-powerful head of Zelensky’s presidential administration, Andriy Yermak.

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Yermak has been Ukraine’s most hated man ever since he was appointed in 2019. But despite the endless tsunami of abuse hurled at him by the giants of western media and their subcontractors in Ukraine, Yermak continuously strengthened his positions. That’s why I always try to keep an air of skepticism when discussing the fall of Yermak.

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But this time, things seem different. Fedir Venislavsky, an influential and quite phlegmatic MP from Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, summed up the change in the air. Venislavsky is an exceedingly dull and loyal party bureaucrat, generally refusing to engage in any political intrigues when summoned for his seemingly daily interview by Ukraine’s branch of Radio Free Europe, Radio Svoboda.



Today, Venislavsky acted quite differently. The cool, collected interviewer kept on grilling him whether he wanted Yermak to go. Wheezing for breath, Venislavsky nervously gasped out that he did. When asked whether it was true that much of the Servant of the People’s parliamentary fraction agreed, Venislavsky affirmed that ‘more than half’ want Yermak to go.

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Many think that Yermak’s fate is to be decided this week. Zelensky announced yesterday that Thursday, November 20, would see a number of ‘several necessary legislative initiatives and principled quick decisions needed by our state’. In turn, oppositional MP Oleksiy Honcharenko interpreted this to mean that Yermak would be dismissed.

However, this still seems unlikely. Just a few hours ago, Yermak announced his participation in the negotiations Ukraine claims to be holding with representatives of Russia in Turkey:

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Operation NUG

The walking fossils supposedly leading Ukraine’s parliamentary opposition, ex-president (2014-2019) Petro Poroshenko and ex-prime minister (2007-2010) Yuliiya Tymoshenko, are calling for a ‘national unity government’. They are joined by the ultra-atlanticist, ‘Sorosite’ party par excellence Holos.

I’ll call this operation NUG (National Unity Government) for short.

Below, you can see the brave NUGers block the parliamentary tribune yesterday. They are holding posters saying things like ‘THERE IS ONLY ONE SOLUTION - A UNITY COALITION’.

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Poroshenko’s ‘European Solidarity’ party and ‘Holos’ party first came out with the NUG demand on the 18th, and Tymoshenko’s ‘Fatherland’ party soon followed. Poroshenko has also been hard at work releasing TikToks where he, the Father of the Nation, dressed in his usual designer ‘peasant’ attire, explains why NUG is necessary:

@poroshenko_official
країні потрібен Уряд, якому довірятимуть
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Amusingly, yesterday’s blocking of the parliamentary tribune by the brave NUGers meant that parliament wasn’t able to vote on the question meant to be decided - accepting the resignation of the two corrupt ministers named in the Myndich tapes. Perhaps NUG are also merely puppets manipulated by Zelensky’s corrupt friend Timur Myndich, now comfortably seated in his Tel Aviv apartment?

Timur Mindich in the video of Radio Liberty's investigative journalism project "Schemes"

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The all-powerful (or not) Timur Myndich

However, it should be noted that operation NUG is not necessarily identical with getting rid of Yermak. Yermak isn’t in the cabinet - he is head of Zelensky’s ‘Office of the President’, an institution with theoretically vague powers - hence, with unlimited powers.

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Chosen by the president, the head of the Office is meant to merely be a secretary. In reality, every president in Ukraine’s history has had his own Yermak — an all-powerful grey cardinal. The scheming court vizier who micro-manages everything in the country.

And it is entirely possible that the existing cabinet, considered entirely curated by Yermak, could be replaced by a new cabinet which is just as loyal to Yermak, this once-unknown film producer.

One could even imagine a scenario where the ‘dismissed’ Yermak continues playing the decisive role in managing the country - just like his close friend Timur Myndich did. Though Myndich has never had any government post, last week’s cataclysmic tapes showed him deciding which ministers to appoint in his secret ‘back office’.

The Fall of Timur Mindich and the Cracks in Ukraine's Leadership - thediplomaticaffairs.com

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Mindich and his money

Let’s take a closer look at what the liberal opposition is saying. Holos’s NUG manifesto calls for ‘a complete and immediate reset… of the current leadership of the Presidential Office, starting with its head’. However, this is only the fifth point - the first few are all about a total reset of the cabinet of ministers.

But Holos is the extreme ‘Sorosite’ (ultra-neoliberal and western-funded) wing of the opposition to Zelensky. And even when it comes to the Sorosites, some point out that their boss, the dashing young Alexander Soros, is actually very good friends with Yermak.

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There are also some who believe that the rest of the opposition is in cahoots with Yermak. MP Mariana Bezuhla, who until very recently was Yermak’s strongest soldier, now claims that Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party and Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party aim to merely change the irrelevant ministers while leaving Yermak in power:

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In general, it is difficult to avoid the suspicion that the ‘opposition’ to Zelensky is mainly concerned with preening their feathers and coming up with impressive phrases.

For instance, they aren’t even satisfied with a government of mere ‘unity’. Yesterday, Poroshenko called for the formation of a new “national salvation government” composed of “patriots and specialists with impeccable reputations.” Like himself, naturally.

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Poroshenko (the man with the flags) screeches out against Zelensky. His colleagues hold signs saying ‘CABINET-MINIDCH STOLE FROM THE ARMY’ and ‘THE ONLY SOLUTION IS A COALITION OF UNITY’

Still, Poroshenko’s party only wields 26 votes, and the allied, even more atlanticist (or ‘Sorosite’, depending on your taste) party Holos has 19 votes in the Rada (parliament). Tymoshenko’s party has 25 votes, making for a total of 70 votes in favor of drastically reshuffling the government. 226 votes are needed to vote through a decision.

Rada rebellion?
But Zelensky’s Servant of the People (SotP) party wields 237 members in parliament. And they aren’t happy.

Zelensky was the first president in Ukrainian history to possess a ‘mono-majority’ — his own party held enough seats in parliament to pass laws without needing coalitions. Now, this powerful weapon is disintegrating over the Mindich-Yermak issue.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/yermak-must-go

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Washington, Moscow bypass Kiev to draft new Ukraine peace plan: Report

The Ukrainian president is trying to limit the fallout from a major corruption scandal

News Desk

NOV 19, 2025

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(Photo credit: Reuters)

The White House has been secretly working with the Kremlin to draft a plan to end the war in Ukraine without involvement from Kiev, Axios reported on 19 November, citing US and Russian officials.

The 28-point US plan is reportedly inspired by US President Donald Trump's post-war plan for Gaza. It focuses on “peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future US relations with Russia and Ukraine,” Axios wrote.

The officials did not explain how the plan deals with the most contentious aspect of peace negotiations, namely, Russia's control of territory in eastern Ukraine.

Since the start of the war in February 2022, Russian forces have successfully occupied much of, but not all of, the territory of four eastern Ukrainian oblasts: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.
In September 2022, Russia passed legislation formally annexing them.

Ukraine is demanding that Russia withdraw from these territories entirely, including areas with pro-Russian Ukrainian populations.

Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is leading the US effort to draft the plan and is working closely with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, a US official stated.

Dmitriev, a former Goldman Sachs executive who heads Russia's $10-billion sovereign wealth fund, has become deeply involved in recent negotiations over Ukraine. He spent three days meeting with Witkoff and other US officials during a visit to Miami late last month.

The Russian envoy told Axios he is optimistic a peace deal can be reached with the US because, unlike past efforts, “we feel the Russian position is really being heard.”

The two sides are hoping to reach a deal that would not only end the violence in Ukraine but also “restore US-Russia ties [and] address Russia's security concerns,” Dmitriev stated.

“It's actually a much broader framework, basically saying, ‘How do we really bring, finally, lasting security to Europe, not just Ukraine,’” he said.

The next step is to convince the Ukrainians and the Europeans to accept the plan, Dmitriev added.

Earlier this week, Witkoff met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's national security advisor, Rustem Umerov, to discuss the plan, a Ukrainian official told Axios.

“We know the Americans are working on something,” the Ukrainian official said

A US official confirmed to Axios that the White House had started briefing European officials about the new plan.

Special envoy Witkoff was scheduled to discuss the plan with Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Ermak, in Turkiye on Wednesday. However, the meeting was canceled amid news of a major corruption scandal.

Timur Mindich, a close associate and former business partner of Zelensky, has been accused by Ukraine's western-backed National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) of involvement in a $100-million embezzlement scheme involving the state-owned nuclear energy firm Energoatom.

As part of the investigation, anti-corruption authorities raided the luxury apartments of Ukrainian politicians in Kiev, one of which had a gold toilet, photos of backpacks full of cash, and audio documents of officials discussing money laundering strategies.

Mindich, 46, managed to flee to Israel a day before the raid. He was born in the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro, where his mother was active in the local Jewish community. His father, Mykhailo, died in Israel in 2006.

https://thecradle.co/articles/washingto ... lan-report

******

Ukraine SitRep – Power Play In Kiev And Chaos At The Front

The situation in Ukraine is becoming even more complicate.

The war on the frontline is going bad for Ukraine as is the war on infrastructure deep behind the contact line.

A corruption scandal is used to neuter President Zelenski. New power structures are set to evolve to further the execution of the war. President Trump is attempting to impose another peace effort while Europe finds that it lacks the money to finance Ukraine and the war.

There are at least seven cities which are falling or are destined to fall within the next few month.

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Kupyansk is largely under Russian control. During the last days Russian forces took some 25% of Siversk. Pokrovsk is to 95% in Russian hands. Fighting in its encircled sister city Mirnograd is slowly coming to an end. The road between Pokrovske and Guliaipole has been taken. The later city is thus cut off from its main supply line and will soon be encircled.
The Ukrainian command had thrown in all its reserves to prevent the taking of Prokovsk and Kupiyansk. It was to no avail.

All regular Ukrainian brigades lack infantry. The constant Russian drone attacks have also taken a large toll on the logistic elements of those units.

General Syrski, the Ukrainian commander in chief, had set his bet on newly developed assault units to allow for offensive action while neglecting the general brigades which have to hold the lines. The weakened lines broke down when the Russian infiltrate them. Assault units were sent in and wasted on counterattacks that were supposed to stop further Russian breakthroughs but failed to have significant effects.

Defense fortifications and buildings can no longer protect the soldiers. Each day Russia is using 200 or more glide bombs to demolish them. Drones and artillery strikes follow. Russian infantry sneaks in to mop up remaining resistance.

It is a fairly slow process but it works for the Russians and is causing them a minimum of casualties.

The war on infrastructure far behind the line of contact is also preceding at a high pace. Ukraine had rejected the ceasefire on infrastructure previously agreed to by President Trump and President Putin. It has continued attacks on Russian oil refineries and other energy facilities with drones and missiles. They have so far done too little damage to slow down the Russian economy.

Russia has responded to those strikes by launching thousands of drones and missile against Ukrainian electricity and heating facilities causing up to 18 hours of blackout per day even in large Ukrainian cities. Another Russian target are railway depots where locomotives are maintained. Hundreds of them have been destroyed in such strikes.

The lack of electricity and mass transport have all but stopped large scale production of industrial goods. The economy suffers. Tax income decreases.


The corruption scandal around Timor Mindich which is involving friends and cabinet members of President Zelinski government is widening. Each day the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) is leaking more details of the case though any real proof of the actual corruption is still missing.

NABU and the whole anti-corruption vertical is a direct control element of the U.S. embassy in Kiev. In a speech held three days before the war in Ukraine started President Putin of Russia described it as such:

There is no independent judiciary in Ukraine. The Kiev authorities, at the West’s demand, delegated the priority right to select members of the supreme judicial bodies, the Council of Justice and the High Qualifications Commission of Judges, to international organisations.

In addition, the United States directly controls the National Agency on Corruption Prevention, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office and the High Anti-Corruption Court. All this is done under the noble pretext of invigorating efforts against corruption. All right, but where are the results? Corruption is flourishing like never before.


The FBI has a liaison officer within NABU and is directly involved in the current corruption investigation.

As for results of corruption investigation there are none. After eleven years of existence the anti corruption vertical has not managed to put even one person into jail:

The NABU and SAPO have never given a prison sentence to any influential figure it has accused of corruption. The NABU’s 2019 corruption investigation into incumbent president Petro Poroshenko resulted in just as many shocking revelations as the ongoing Myndich-gate, and just as many prison sentences – NONE.

The corruption scandal is just an instrument to put pressure on Zelenski. He has rejected to mobilize people under the age of 25 and allowed people under the age of 22 to leave the country. The war hawks in the U.S. and Europe want him to draft the young men and to use them as cannon fodder in their zeal to weaken Russia.

Zelenski is being politically neutered. The opposition in the Rada wants a place at the trough. It is demanding the resignation Andrei Yermak, Zelenski’s chief of office, and the whole Yermak controlled government under Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. A national unity government which includes the opposition is supposed to replace them. Parts of Zelenski’s Servant of the People party have defected and are now supporting the opposition’s demands.

Instead of being the center of political action President Zelenski might soon find himself being in a mere ceremonial position.

Even bigger movements are in the making. The U.S. is drafting a new plan to end(?) the war in Ukraine. (The Russian side says it has no knowledge of any such plans.) Today Trump’s envoy Steven Witkoff was supposed to meet Yermak and Zelenski in Istanbul to discuss the new plans but the meeting has been postponed.

Senior Pentagon officials have arrived in Kiev to discuss the military side of the issue:

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and chief of staff Gen. Randy George became the highest-level Trump Pentagon officials to visit Ukraine when they arrived on an unannounced trip this week, as the U.S. moves to find a way to speed the end of the war.

Meanwhile Europe is finding out that it can not afford (archived) to pay for the war in Ukraine:

Underlying Kyiv’s coming cash crunch is a fundamental disconnect between Europe’s undoubtedly sincere desire to support Ukraine and the reality that the UK, France and Germany are facing serious fiscal crises of their own. Promises to support Ukraine are of a piece with European NATO members’ pledges to commit 5 percent of their GDP to defense spending by the end of the decade – both declarations are, for the most part, unfunded.

The story so far of Europe’s engagement with Ukraine has been one of big pledges followed by considerably smaller deeds – and that was before Trump took away Uncle Sam’s billions. Unfortunately for Kyiv, there’s little to suggest that Europe has the means or the will to actually provide Ukraine as much as it needs, for as long as it needs.


Zelenski, and those who support to continue the war, have lost touch with reality. The Ukrainian army lacks morale, weapons and soldiers. The front is getting breached in several places. The countries vital infrastructure is getting destroyed. There is political upheaval and no money to continue the war.

The only sane way out of the chaos is to call Moscow and to agree on its conditions.

Posted by b on November 19, 2025 at 15:50 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/11/u ... front.html

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Polish 'Sabotage' False Flag Churns More Threats Against Russia Amid AFU's Shock Collapse in Seversk
Simplicius
Nov 18, 2025

A railway line was “sabotaged” in Poland along the Warsaw-Lublin line, leading to another psyop meant to induce a mass panic and further stoke the flames of war:

In Poland, a section of the railway track in the village of Mika was blown up.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the incident on the Warsaw – Lublin railway sabotage. This route is also extremely important for delivering military cargo to Ukraine.


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The incredibly brazen propaganda campaign has kicked off with immediate accusations of Russia being behind the attack. But even more incredibly, Tusk himself reported that it’s now certain two Ukrainian men were responsible—yet, mind-blowingly, this is somehow still tied to Russia and peddled onto what Polish and EU leaders must clearly believe is a stupefied populace bereft of any independent reasoning abilities.

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This outrageously bottom-of-the-barrel-level propaganda would shock more if we hadn’t already been subjected to even worse with Nord Stream 2, wherein Ukrainians had likewise been fingered for the attack, yet a maze of mental convolutions was nonetheless weaved to blame Russia.

Native Poles all over the net are not buying it:

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Polish deputy prime minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz extended the laughable psyop:

“Only when the criminals are caught will we have absolute certainty, but analyzing all the events happening in Poland and Europe, all traces lead east, to Russia. This is part of the war they are waging against NATO, against Europe, against us — a hybrid war, a war meant to sow disorder and fear. It is a strategy to weaken the West,” said Kosiniak-Kamysz.

This mind-bending propaganda has become du jour for hapless European bureaucrats of late: virtually any and all malicious actions of the West are gracelessly imputed to Russia; recent case in point:

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Imagine how propagandized one’s populace must be to even be eligible for this bait—that it is Russia threatening Greenland rather than Trump, who literally implied the use of military force to seize the territory?

But they spelled it all out for us several times, including recently:

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https://www.politnavigator.net/nuzhen-t ... ssiyu.html

The above headline is a tad sensationalized—former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik Ilves did not quite say we need a terrorist attack at the Warsaw Security Forum in October, but rather implied so by stating Europe would not wake up to Russia’s menace until such a 9/11-level attack occurred.

“We have to work on the no-fly zone that has been declared over Ukraine since February 25. We can do it. Just a couple of months ago, Britain and the US provided air support to Israel. We can do the same for Ukraine. For this, we only need planes that will shoot down Russian planes bombing Ukrainian cities”, Ilves said.

“For me, what is happening in Ukraine is a war. They have not invaded our territory, but they are burning down the largest trade hub in Europe. Let’s already admit that we are being attacked.

European politicians will be able to honestly admit what we are facing only after something like the 9/11 attacks happen. After that, European politicians will no longer be able to say that they don’t want to do anything,” the Estonian politician said.


The intentions behind his inflammatory rhetoric were clear, however. And more and more this vector is being pushed throughout the EU:

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Stop being afraid of Russia, we need to escalate! – the Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys

(Video at link.)

Now on cue, the war drums again beat louder, with chief of the Polish General Staff announcing that some major “attack” on Poland is already being prepared by a Russia ready to expand its war:

“It seems that an attack on Poland is being prepared, Russia has already started preparing for war.”
— Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces Kukula


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Incidentally, the Russian SVR recently released this assessment:

Russian Foreign Intelligence Service releases a statement:

— French Foreign Legion assault troops are stationed in border areas of Poland and are planned to be transferred to Ukraine’s central regions

— If information leaks, France will claim that it concerns a small group of instructors arriving in Ukraine to train mobilized Ukrainian servicepeople

— Hundreds of additional hospital beds are being created in France at an accelerated pace to receive the wounded


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Advisor to the Polish president and ‘head of the National Security Department’ Stanislaw Zaryn also gave his assessment, cartoonishly including AI photos of war-like Putin next to the sabotaged railway to further incense his propagandized constituents:

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Again—Ukrainians caught in the act, but it’s AI-Putin’s fault. The intent behind this infantile propaganda is more than clear.

But that does not slow the European march towards war, because the bought-and-paid-for EU leaders have no sovereignty to make their own independent decisions—everything is downstream of Brussels’ directives.

FT now reports that NATO is urgently trying to shrink the time it takes to mass deploy its troops to Russia’s border in time of war—from 45 days down to 3-5 at most:

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https://archive.ph/IyhJv

European countries want to reduce the time for NATO troops to move from west to east from 45 to 3 days, reports The Financial Times citing EU officials.

There are several problems: bridges, roads, and bureaucracy that hinders their rapid renovation and reconstruction.

Europeans have planned urgent repairs of almost 3,000 transport infrastructure facilities.


But of course, the article centers on quotes from the same old worn-out circus of two-bit military clowns like Ben Hodges, whose opinions are essentially worthless.

In reality, the EU continues to crumble while fantasizing about taking out Russia as if it’s the source of all their ails.

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And who caused this, one wonders?

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The latest word brings us news that not only is Yermak now on the chopping block and reportedly soon to be removed, but that National Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov has fled Ukraine after a scheduled Turkey visit. If true, then things are really starting to unravel; Witkoff has allegedly cancelled a planned meeting with Yermak over these rumors.

From MP Goncharenko:

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To make matters worse, the front has again just experienced another shock collapse—this time in the long-embattled stronghold of Seversk. It was one of the most dependable of strongholds since the start of the war, an area where Ukrainian forces had repeatedly beaten back Russian advances in seesaw fashion, over and over.

Now, Russian forces suddenly broke through to the center of the city, with its capture seemingly imminent.

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Russian war correspondent Yuriy Kotenok:

“The decisive storming of Seversk is telling. The enemy had been preparing the city, located in a lowland, for defense for years. And when our forces reached the southern outskirts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were supposed to prepare. But it’s already a matter of motivation. Our assault groups can no longer be stopped—they have reached the high-rise buildings. They will start to bypass along the railway, and then the enemy has few options—either perish in the buildings under the rubble or flee from the high-rises. Judging by the dynamics in Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), most choose the second option.

There is still a faint hope among the commanding Banderites to try to hold the line along the Bakhmutka River relying on the heights west of the city. But our forces are breaking through to these heights from the Platonovka side.

A further breakthrough by the Russian Armed Forces towards Kaleniki and Reznikovka is very dangerous for the enemy. Then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to stand at Rai-Aleksandrovka and Nikolaevka and close off Sloviansk. Plus, our forces can reach Vasyukovka from the rear via the heights. In fact, this could be an approach to the canal and the beginning of battles for Sloviansk…

Additionally, our forces are already 5 km from Sviatohirsk and are attacking Dibrova, i.e., encircling Krasnyi Lyman on the flanks. The garrison of Krasnyi Lyman may be cut off from land supply… Given the shortage of reserves, the question arises—who will the Armed Forces of Ukraine use to hold at least the perimeter of such a fairly large city as Sloviansk?

The main and most combat-ready reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been worn down near Dobropillia, Krasnoarmeysk, and Kupiansk. Our advance to Zaporizhzhia and Pavlohrad is basically unopposed now. The fall of Seversk and the encirclement of Krasnyi Lyman are looming… By the beginning of November 19, 2025, about one-third of Seversk has been returned to Russia. The operation is in full swing.

The drug lord got busy in time and is again shuttling about negotiations. Does the green creature sense its end?

“I’m not going to ‘bombard with hats’ anyone. There is still a very long way to go. But it is obvious that the enemy is facing systemic problems.”




Here a Russian soldier describes how Danilovka was taken in the Gulyaipole direction—as we wrote about before, soldiers in pairs infiltrating during fog: (Video with free option.)

“It was difficult to reach, very difficult, but the weather allowed us to infiltrate in small groups, in pairs.” The Vostok group’s assault troops describe how they took Danilovka

A Russian report describes Ukraine’s desperate last-ditch counterattacks occurring in the Pokrovsk direction, with the intention of breaking the encirclement:

Krasnoarmeysk • Rodinskoye

For the second day, there has been a continuous assault on our forward positions on the northern flank of the city with attempts to advance into the settlement of Rodinskoye.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost nearly a battalion of personnel and equipment over two days. They are throwing untrained soldiers as cannon fodder. The equipment is also far from new, worn out.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian group trapped in the Pokrovsk cauldron is beginning to perish from hunger and lack of medical aid. Some are breaking out. Some prefer to fall asleep and not wake up.


Meanwhile, Russian Fab-3000s are visiting Ukrainian positions holed up in Mirnograd apartment blocks: (Video with free option.)

Mirnograd direction: The city is currently under constant pressure, the enemy spares no heavy FAB bombs and strikes them at the neighborhoods, clearing corridors for themselves among residential areas. On the outskirts, there are already captured houses, and from there they try to push further towards the Molodizhny and Skhidny neighborhoods — they want to cut the city and go deeper, like into a concrete labyrinth.

🇺🇦The hottest point right now is the southern flank. There, the gray zone has almost consumed the entire district: the enemy’s movement is constant, they advance in small groups, changing routes to disrupt the pace of our defense. But they also die there in packs because they have not been able to firmly establish themselves — they rush in, get hit hard, retreat, and try again.

🇺🇦The fight for the city is fierce, close contact and chaos among the high-rises is their style: hiding, running across, catching the moment. However, our Cossacks keep the district under constant control. Reconnaissance does not sleep — clearing yards, marking movements, and immediately striking them precisely with drones. Where the boars thought they could sneak quietly — a harsh strike arrives like clockwork.




A few last items:

Ukrainian MP Roman Kostenko has a grim prediction for the rising Ukrainian AWOL cases:

“Soon, the number of soldiers who have deserted will equal the number of fighting soldiers” — Ukraine’s MP Roman Kostenko

“80% are currently fleeing from training centers, and the country is doing nothing to bring them back or create conditions so they are afraid to flee and fulfill their duty”


(Video with free option.)


Another Ukrainian soldier believes that Ukrainian men should be chipped like cattle to prevent their escape from the mobilization squads:
(Video with free option.)

What an idea.



AFU soldiers dressed as civilians are trying to escape Pokrovsk and are now being regularly rounded up by Russian sweepers: (Video with free option.)



An awe-inspiring video of Russian UMPK glide-bombs en route to an AFU position captured by a Russian surveillance drone which happens to be right in the bomb’s flight path: (Video with free option.)

The FAB-500T with UMPK-PD flies close to a reconnaissance UAV.



An atmospheric scene from Kherson shows how the now-ubiquitous supply route nets look in the fall: (Video at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/pol ... lag-churns

*****

Trump's peace plan
November 20, 12:55

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Based on the provisions of the "Trump peace plan" voiced in the Western press.

1. Transfer of the entire territory of Donbas to Russia.
2. Crimea and Donbas are recognized as Russian territories de jure.
3. Cessation of hostilities on the LBS in other directions.
4. Recognition of the territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts controlled by the Russian Federation as de facto territories of Russia.
5. Transfer of some territories to Ukraine (probably we are talking about Sumy oblast).
6. Reduction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by 2.5 times, or to 40% of the current number.
7. Ban on possession of certain types of weapons (probably we are talking about short- and medium-range missiles).
8. Ban on the deployment of foreign troops on the territory of Ukraine.
9. Ukraine's refusal to join NATO (at the legislative level).
10. Granting the Russian language the status of official in Ukraine (but not the second state language).
11. Ending the persecution of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.

There are 28 points in total, and not all of them are known.
Clearly, these terms are worse than those Putin proposed in June and even worse for Ukraine than the Istanbul agreements of March 2022. If they are accepted, it will be reasonable to question those who, on Boris Johnson's advice, decided to "fight."
It would appear that Ukraine fought for four years for worse peace terms.

It remains to be seen whether the US will impose something similar. Or not.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10197252.html

Google Translator

Ben Garrison is a Trump-loving hack who should stick to comic books. As for this peace plan, I have my doubts. And what about Odessa, without which peace will be very temporary?
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Nov 21, 2025 12:52 pm

The Witkoff Plan versus the Kallas Plan
Published by @nsanzo ⋅ 21/11/2025

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Yesterday, in yet another of the many similar exchanges that have taken place, Russia and Ukraine exchanged the bodies of soldiers killed on the front lines. Ukraine handed over the remains of 30 soldiers to the Russian Federation, while Moscow gave Kyiv 1,000. This discrepancy exemplifies the current military and political dynamics. Unlike in 2022, when more Russian soldiers' bodies were handed over, a significant imbalance has solidified between the number of bodies Russia hands over and those it receives. The current situation is not an exception but the norm. Although the Ukrainian side argues that the imbalance cannot be interpreted as indicating higher Ukrainian casualties, but rather the opposite—that Russian soldiers are dying on their side of the front as they attempt to advance into Ukrainian territory and perish in the process—this explanation loses its validity when the front line shifts, as it is now, in a direction favorable to Russia. The data also refute another dogma of this war, the accusation that Russia abandons the corpses of its soldiers at the front.

Russia is advancing and is able to recover the bodies of its soldiers and those left behind by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which, despite the increasingly unrealistic war reports from the Ukrainian command, are losing territory in several areas of the front, in some cases at an alarming rate. “The front is collapsing,” wrote Serhiy Sternenko, the former leader of Praviy Sektor in Odessa, now an activist and rising political figure, last week. The statement caused a stir on social media, both because it contrasted with Oleksandr Syrsky's claim that everything is under control , and because it represented a shift from Sternenko's previous statements. On Wednesday, Clement Molin, whose daily monitoring of the dynamics of the front is considered accurate - as much as the nature of the current war allows, in which drone warfare has limited trench fighting and made the line of separation more fluid - declared the town of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeisk in Russian war reports) captured, calling it Russia's biggest success since the capture of Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) and announcing that the fighting was now in the nearby city of Mirnograd (Dimitrov).

With the battle for Pokrovsk now decided, where despite Ukrainian arrogance regarding its drone capabilities and superior infantry, Russia has outmaneuvered it both in the air and tactically, Kyiv's primary concern has long since shifted away from that urban center. "The urban strongholds of Seversk and Guliaipole, which have held out for three years, are now under threat," Molin added, referring to the two sectors of the front currently worrying Ukraine and its allies. Both locations are significant for what they represent. Seversk, undoubtedly the most jinxed front for Russia, demonstrates Moscow's attempt to advance towards Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, the anticipated decisive battle for control of Donetsk from the north. Guliaipole, located south of Pokrovsk in the Zaporizhzhia region, exemplifies the Russian threat to advance towards the regional capital. The city acts as a barrier to isolate the city of Zaporozhie from danger, a security that would disappear almost automatically if the control of Guliaipole were threatened.

The dynamics on the front lines and the home front are clear and manifest themselves both in military advances and setbacks and in the relationship between Kyiv and Moscow. Talks between these two countries, generally mediated by third parties, have never completely ceased, although today they are limited to basic humanitarian issues such as the exchange of prisoners—cannon fodder to send to the front—and the remains of fallen soldiers, as well as the return of children to their families on the other side. Despite Zelensky's announcement of the resumption of diplomacy just a week after Ukraine suspended it, this remains the current state of direct negotiations, which have now taken another unexpected turn. With its typically crude and sometimes senseless style, Trumpism is once again attempting to disrupt diplomacy in search of a resolution that the Ukrainian side perceives as a demand for capitulation.

“Trump’s 28-point plan demands that Russia gain de facto control of Luhansk and Donetsk (collectively known as Donbas), even though Ukraine still controls about 14.5% of the territory, according to the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War . Despite being under Russian control, the areas of Donbas from which Ukraine would withdraw would be considered a demilitarized zone, where Russia could not deploy troops. In two other war-torn regions, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, current lines of control would remain largely frozen, and Russia would return some territory, subject to negotiations,” writes Axios , referring to the new attempt to devise a “territory for security guarantees” plan that both warring countries would have to accept. The data provided by the neoconservative think tank indicates a serious possibility that Russia could achieve its demand to control all of Donbas by military means. According to the Institute for the Study of War , Russia already controls 85.5% of Donetsk and Luhansk, far from the strategic defeat that Ukraine's most ardent allies want to see in the situation, which clearly shows that only Moscow is in a position to achieve its objectives. Therefore, the attempts by pro-Ukrainian lobbyists or affiliated media outlets to portray Putin as a man on the ropes are now simply propaganda exercises.

A clear example of this is what was written by the pro-Polish Belarusian media outlet Nexta , which wrote on Wednesday that "Putin sees the end of the war as a threat to his own power." Referring to an article published by The Wall Street Journal , he added that “according to US intelligence, the Kremlin cannot explain the enormous losses and expenses to the Russian people, so it is trying to prolong the war as much as possible. Any negotiation poses a risk to Putin. Economist Anders Åslund argues that Russia is no longer seeking to win. A prolonged war benefits it. If the war ends, two million veterans—including convicts and mobilized prisoners who were promised freedom—will return home. And they will all ask the same question: what was the point of all this? The Kremlin has no convincing answer. Historian Mark Galeotti adds that Putin is trapped between fear and uncertainty, and that the peace initiatives proposed by Trump only increase the pressure on him. Putin ignored a golden rule: don't start a war you can't win. The Kremlin may try to proclaim victory by occupying one or another region of Ukraine, but that won't be enough. The supposed objectives of the 'special military operation'—'demilitarization,' reducing the army, and Preventing Ukraine's accession to NATO is simply unattainable. And the Kremlin undoubtedly knows this. It is clear that Moscow is aware it will not achieve the complete victory it may have naively dreamed of in 2022. However, if the starting point for negotiations is what Axios claims —which even adds the incredible detail that the United States and European countries would recognize the loss of Crimea and Donbas—Russia would aspire to more favorable conditions than those presented by Witkoff last spring in what was presented as the "final US proposal." Time, resilience despite sanctions, and progress on the front put Russia in a less vulnerable position than Ukraine, besieged by economic, military, and political problems.

However, Kyiv has an essential asset: the support of the European Union and the United Kingdom. As Reuters reported yesterday, London has already rejected the proposal leaked to the media as Steve Witkoff's offer—a proposal on which Trump has yet to comment, leaving it unclear whether it is a joint initiative or simply a series of ideas under consideration—and demands a peace agreement in which Ukraine's demands are met. Similarly, Kaja Kallas stated yesterday that the European Union appreciates Donald Trump's efforts and announced that Brussels has always been in favor of a "lasting, sustainable, and just peace." Despite having defended the Israeli massacre for two years as a "right to self-defense," Kallas concluded that 93% of Russian attacks target civilian infrastructure and that Russia's objective is to terrorize the population. Kallas also denounced the Russian bombing of Ternopil, in which, according to Ukrainian sources, 26 people were killed. “We had a very good plan to discuss very specific actions against the phantom fleet ,” the EU's foreign policy chief stated, referring to the intention to continue imposing sanctions that have never achieved their objective. She then lamented that, instead, the topic of conversation would be “the recent news” about Witkoff's plan. “For any plan to work, it needs the presence of Ukraine and Europe,” she added, emphasizing the importance of asserting her presence in the negotiations, where Brussels hopes to achieve what it has achieved so far: imposing conditions that make any agreement unfeasible. “We also have to understand that in this war there is a victim and an aggressor,” she added, noticeably nervous, in her usual style of avoiding any peace through compromise—unacceptable after the Russian invasion, but also in previous years when she tried to rewrite the Minsk agreement so that Ukraine could reap its benefits without fulfilling its commitments.

“We haven’t heard any concessions being demanded of Russia,” Kallas stated, whose counterproposal to Witkoff’s plan is “a two-point plan: first, pressure Russia; second, support Ukraine.” Although the latest version of Witkoff’s attempt to revive his plan from the spring or last August is being presented as a capitulation by Ukraine, leaked details point to concessions from Russia as well. Kevin Rothrock of the Russian opposition media outlet Meduza commented on this , admitting that, “it does indeed demand that Kyiv hand over the unoccupied part of Donetsk. But what is also surprising is that Moscow accepts Donbas as a demilitarized zone and frozen front lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.” “That wasn’t in the previous Istanbul ultimatum,” he noted, pointing to some of the concessions that would be demanded of Russia. Even those seemingly harsher concessions demanded of Ukraine must be seen in context. “Even if it were reduced to 40% of its current size, the Ukrainian army would still be larger than before the full-scale invasion, when it initially managed to repel the Russian advances. Furthermore, Ukraine would have an even larger reserve of veterans available for mobilization,” recalled Ukrainian sociologist Volodymyr Ischenko.

Although weakened, Ukraine is not in the state of collapse that Sternenko fears, nor will the corruption case destabilize the Ukrainian state, which enjoys political, economic, and military assistance from the European Union and the United Kingdom, the American weapons that NATO acquires on its behalf, and strong allies within the Trump administration, including Marco Rubio and, at least until January when his resignation is announced, General Keith Kellogg. Last spring, it was they who, in just a few days, managed to transform Witkoff's final proposal, relatively favorable to Russia, into the European proposal, clearly favorable to Ukraine. The checks and balances and pressure from the EU are now pointing in the same direction. With a proposal territorially more favorable to Moscow, no plan can be acceptable to Brussels, and even less so to Kyiv, which is not yet in such a weak position that it would be forced to accept whatever is offered.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/11/21/33458/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Peskov's key statements:

" Kiev must make a responsible decision on a peaceful settlement right now, otherwise it will be too late."

The actions of the Russian Armed Forces are coercing Zelenskyy into a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian issue, Peskov stated.

"The Kremlin doesn't know the basis for media reports that the US is supposedly expecting Kyiv to sign Trump's "peace plan" by November 27." "

Russia is open to peace talks for their success, not for the sake of the process.

" "Moscow wants peace talks on Ukraine to be successful, and therefore doesn't want to discuss them over the air."

"The US has certain ideas regarding a Ukrainian settlement, but nothing substantive is being discussed right now.

" "A meeting between Putin and Trump is necessary, but a lot of work needs to be done before it."

"Putin will hold a meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council today."

***

Colonelcassad
The damage to the Azerbaijani embassy in Kyiv was the result of improper operation of Ukraine's air defense systems , the Russian Foreign Ministry reported.

The ministry noted that claims of "targeted missile strikes" against Azerbaijani targets in Ukraine are untrue.

Russia expresses its sincere regret over the incident involving the Azerbaijani embassy in Kyiv.

***

Colonelcassad
The Kremlin reported that Moscow is not yet aware of the cocaine-fueled Führer regime's agreement to Trump's plan presented to Kyiv. Europe is currently experiencing predictable hysteria, with accusations that Trump is offering a "bad deal" and calls for a "better deal from Europe." Which, of course, will be rejected by Russia. The EU is not actually a party to the negotiations, so any EU projects are worthless and serve only to prolong the war.

At the UN Security Council yesterday, a representative of the cocaine-fuhrer regime, using the same old refrain, ranted that Kyiv will not abandon NATO and will never acknowledge the loss of territory. However, as we already know, the US can easily push Kyiv's "red lines" if it so chooses.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – November 20th, 2025

Summary by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Nov 20, 2025

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Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "The Shakhtyersky district of the city of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) in the DPR has been liberated.

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Fighters of the 'Center' Group freely move around the liberated Shakhtyersky microdistrict of the city of Krasnoarmeysk, Donetsk People's Republic.
(Video at link.)

The servicemen of the group continue to provide medical assistance, supply medicines and food to the civilian peaceful residents of the city.

If necessary, all those willing are evacuated to a safe area at a temporary accommodation point, where they receive assistance."


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ЛБС 28.10.2025=Line of Combat Contact October 28th, 2025. АКТИВНОСТЬ=Activity.

Message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: "Assault units of the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Guards Combined Arms Army of the 'East' Group have liberated the settlement of Veseloe in the Zaporozhye Oblast. Along with the settlement, a large enemy defense area of more than 15 square kilometers came under control."

The Russian Armed Forces are breaking the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the interfluve of the Yanchur and Gaichur rivers with alternating offensive actions along the entire length of the line of combat contact and are driving wedges into the enemy's defense. Further, by developing the flanks, they are expanding the control zone and the Nazis' defense is collapsing.

A temporary lull on our left flank (southern part of the line of combat contact) was replaced by a rapid advance of the units of the 114th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment and the liberation of the small settlement of Veseloe (47°41′29″ N, 36°23′49″ E, with 13 residents in 2001). It is located on the O-080618 highway, 9.5 kilometers from the city of Gulyaipole. To the south, 1 kilometer away, is the settlement of Zeleny Gai—another area of the enemy's blocking positions Veseloe - Zeleny Gai - Vysokoe (Chervone).

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caption...

The elimination of these positions opens the way to the city of Gulyaipole.

What Would New Corruption Scandal Bring to Ukraine

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Editorial
Nov 19, 2025
Cross-posted by East’s Substack
"A new editorial from East Calling! Why is the latest corruption scandal from Ukraine important?"
- Zinderneuf

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Vladimir Zelensky and Timur Mindich. Picture from open sources

The corruption scandal that erupted last week on November 11th with reports of the Ukrainian media regarding NABU officers conducting searches at the site of one of Zelensky’s closest associates. The person concerned, Timur Mindich, was first viewed by us as one of the many mundane figures to be found in Ukraine. But as the events unfolded, it became clear that this particular scandal is more revealing than any other news story of its kind.

We managed to identify at least three external forces involved in this matter. What seemed to have once been “united West” is now falling apart, since all the parties involved, namely the US, EU and UK are seen to be pursuing their own interests on the territory of Ukraine.

The EU is not a homogenous entity as it is represented by national governments. Some have been forced to follow the will of the EU whereas others have refused to do so with a view to securing their own interests. Such a stance has automatically made them “allies of Putin” in the eyes of other states.

Lagging behind the rest of the EU and ranking, according to some experts, among the world’s worst performing economies, Germany appears of particular interest in the given context.

The UK has also “distinguished” itself. Unlike Germany, however, Britain is driven by the desire to regain at least part of the might it used to have. The UK is playing its own game which is occasionally in line with that of the EU on the whole. The UK has managed to meddle in the Ukrainian conflict quite efficiently and it seems to have gained control over Zelensky, despite the best efforts of the US to host the party.

Further to the question of the US, it should be noted that more than anything else President Trump needs to commit a “heroic act” of some sort. Having realized that all the endeavors to make Russia dance to the US tune have failed, so have those aimed at keeping Zelensky loyal to the old master, Washington appears to have turned to harsher schemes, such as bringing up the aforementioned corruption case so as to put pressure on Zelensky and his allies.

Meanwhile, it has been established that Brussels is particularly interested in hushing up the corruption scandal surrounding Ukraine so as to support V. Zelensky.

What’s more, there’s ample evidence to suggest that the EU diplomatic missions in Kiev have been challenged with the task to use any resources available to exert pressure on the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP) as well as the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) including but not limited to the bribery of the organizations’ officials. So, to a certain extent it contradicts the goals that the US has, considering that Witkoff has cancelled his meeting with Zelensky in Istanbul, and, according to the American press, the US has worked out a 28-point plan that allegedly was rejected by Zelensky. Axios reports, citing a US official:

“The meeting was postponed when it became clear that Zelensky was rejecting the agreements reached with Umerov and was not interested in discussing Trump’s plan. Instead, Zelensky was heading to Ankara with another plan developed jointly with European partners, which Russia will never accept.”

The above can serve as an additional proof confirming that Europeans and Americans have different approaches to the Ukrainian case and that the Trump administration may use this corruption case as a lever to break Europe’s weaking unity.

Another widely-discussed issue we’ve been facing lately concerns the Ukrainian energy and defense sectors. We therefore wonder how you assess the efficacy of the EU policy in respect of Ukraine, considering the recent corruption scandal that has recently revolved around its energy sector. To the best of our knowledge, the glaring truth of Europe’s involvement in

covering up the cases of the embezzlement of funds allocated to the Kyiv regime for many years in a row has come out into the open. The evidence collected by the SAP and NABU point to the involvement of Zelensky and his team in the theft of the Western funds.

Besides the investigation of the energy sector, the SAP and NABU have conducted a detailed audit of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. It has been discovered that the $100 million the former has been “relieved of” fades in significance compared to the “losses” incurred by the latter.

In this regard Mr.Larry Johnson said as follows:

With respect to the corruption issue. The USG has opened a criminal investigation of the Zelensky government. It involves $48 BILLION in missing funds. So, I don’t think the EU missions will be able to stop the process.

I think these news reports are a signal that the West is preparing to jettison Zelensky. He’ll be the scapegoat. The sums involved are far more than $100 million.


We also couldn’t refrain from wondering how the ongoing scandal may affect Ursula von der Leyen’s actions considering her track record with the COVID-19 vaccine case standing out. May she be expected to change her tune or is she going to remain dedicated to the goal of increasing the tension within the EU on the pretext of the “Russian threat” while benefiting from the funds allocated to Kiev? The issue is relevant indeed, given that the US is not willing to put the corruption case on hold.

The same question applies to Berlin that is reluctant to back down from its plan to further increase the amount of financial aid allocated to Ukraine despite being in possession of the evidence confirming Zelensky and his team’s involvement in illegal activities. We are therefore curious to find out how Larry C. Johnson expects the ongoing processes to affect Merz’s further political career prospects.

These questions will be definitely raised within our upcoming livestream with Larry C. Johnson next Tuesday on November 25th, at 17:00 CET/ 11:00 EST. Stay tuned.

https://eastcalling.substack.com/cp/179403840

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High Noon In Kiev

The ‘new’ Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine, mentioned here yesterday, is unlikely to come to fruition.

Russia has said that it does not have any official knowledge of the plan or its content. But there are several reasons for it to reject it.

The Telegraph claims that the plan does not acknowledge that the Donbas and Luhansk are part of Russia but only allows for Russia to ‘lease’ the territory:

The Trump administration deal would see Kyiv cede control of the eastern Donbas region, but maintain legal ownership. Russia would pay an undisclosed rental fee for de facto control of the region, officials familiar with the deal told The Telegraph.

There is also the role of NATO which the Trump administration’s plan does not mention:

As European and U.S. officials alike sought clarity, they said many aspects of the plan remained in flux, including the role of NATO and any Ukrainian territorial concessions to Russia.

One aspect U.S. officials are still pondering is whether and how to mention NATO, the person said. The discussion of NATO has not been previously reported.

Ukraine has sought NATO membership as a security guarantee against a future Russian invasion. While some European countries support that, the U.S. has rejected it and Moscow has long demanded Kyiv not join the defensive alliance, viewing that as a threat. The European allies also worry about granting Russia territorial concessions, which they see as rewarding Moscow’s aggression and setting a concerning precedent.


Those European allies who reject the peace plan and are concerned about precedent should look up ‘Kosovo’ and how that came into being.

The prospect of NATO membership of Ukraine was one of the main reasons for starting the war. Russia will not allow NATO, or any other military ‘security guarantee’ for Ukraine, along its western borders. Ukraine’s explicit rejection of entering NATO will have to be part of any acceptable peace agreement.

Ukraine’s acting President is not willing to agree to the plan. He now sees the recent revealing of the corruption scandal involving his friend Mindich as part of an operation to press him to fire his chief of office Andrei Yermak and to accept Trump’s peace plan. He will argue that Russia is pulling the strings on each of these issues:

Zelenskyy decided not to fire Yermak, but to launch counterattack against NABU & everyone involved in investigation of Mindich case, accuse them of working for Russia to force Zelensky to accept Trump’s peace plan. This is stated by Ukrainian MP Zhelezhyak on Telegram:

“The president has decided not to fire Yermak. He will be retained and a counterattack will be launched against everyone involved in ‘MindichGate.’ Now they’ll announce this and will begin a new attack with a ‘Russian connection.’ First, it’ll be media coverage—something like yesterday, when the Office’s ‘garbage dumps’ started spreading something about a ‘Whitkoff plan’ and that the special operation ‘Midas’ is a coercion. And then we expect a powerful counterattack against everyone involved in the investigation in any way.”


Zelenski’s first target is the head of the Servant of the People faction in the Rada, David Arahamia. He was involved in the last few days in calls to dismiss Yermak (edited machine translation):

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will initiate the dismissal of the head of the Servant of the People faction David Arahamia at today’s meeting with deputies.

This was announced in his Telegram channel by ex-MP Ihor Mosiychuk, citing sources.

He said that the president will put pressure on deputies with the help of compromising materials, and the peace plan of US President Donald Trump is used in the information field to cover up the rescue of the president’s entourage from responsibility.

It should be recalled that part of the “Servants of the People” called for the creation of a new coalition and government. Arakhamia, although he stated that this is “a statement of individual people’s deputies”, however, according to Strana, he supports the demand for Yermak’s resignation, which is shared by many other deputies from the SotP.

Meanwhile, according to MP Oleksiy Honcharenko, Arakhamia set a condition for Zelensky: to dismiss Yermak, so that the Rada would continue its work and retain the SotP-majority. Arakhamia’s demand was supported by Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Fyodorov and head of the Military Intelligence Kirill Budanov.

Zelensky, according to Goncharenko, refused.

“A key minister, a key military officer and a key person in the Parliament opposed Andriy Yermak and put pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky to dismiss him. If Zelensky refuses – he will lose the Rada. He will not be able to pass the budget. There will be no coalition,” Goncharenko writes.


The problems for Zelenski are only increasing.

Any strike against the anti-corruption vertical (NABU, the Midas corruption investigation, Pravda.ua media) may cause a harsh backlash from Europe. A strike against Arahamia may cost him the majority in parliament. Any rejection of Trump’s plan may lead to stop of U.S. intelligence that is needed to strike at Russia.

For Zelenski to continue to fight for Yermak, who everyone wants to go, may well cost him his presidency.

Posted by b on November 20, 2025 at 17:44 UTC | Permalink

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Peace by Sunday?

Is Trump behind the corruption probe? Oligarchs, liberals, nationalists, and Zelenskites give their views.
Events in Ukraine
Nov 20, 2025

The past weeks have been full of events. The contradictions, coincidences, and crises have provided febrile conditions for conspiratorial theories.

Yesterday, a range of western media sources, including the Financial Times reported on a new peace plan hammered out by Russian and American representatives. Yesterday, Axios reported that Ukraine’s defense minister Rustem Umerov met with the Americans to discuss it in Miami earlier in the week. Financial Times correspondent in Ukraine Christopher Miller described it with the following apocalyptic tone:

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The aforementioned FT article also presented contradictory reports from Ukrainian officials regarding how they felt on the matter:

Officials in Kyiv briefed on the plan said it closely aligned with the Kremlin’s maximalist demands, adding it would be a non-starter for Ukraine without significant changes.

But one of the people briefed on the proposal was less pessimistic, saying “the Americans are pressing Moscow to clearly articulate what their expectations actually are to . . . start the negotiations”.


Zelensky’s statement yesterday that ‘processes have activated’ that hasten peace negotiations led many to believe that the ongoing corruption crisis in Kiev is no coincidence.

Zelenskyy: We hope to resume prisoner exchanges with Russia by year-end

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In other words, many theorize that the corruption probe against Zelensky’s old friend and business party Timur Myndich, launched by the western-funded NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine), is Trump’s whipping rod to push Zelensky to accept an unappealing peace deal.

I’m still skeptical. For several reasons.

According to the NABU, its ‘Operation Midas’ against Zelensky’s entourage has been ongoing since 2024, long before Trump took office. Are we to assume that the Biden administration needed to pressure Zelensky with a corruption scandal to force him to accept a peace deal with Russia?

Meanwhile, the peace deal that Trump is supposedly proposing to Ukraine isn’t anything new. Territorial concessions, rights to the Russian language and church, and so on. Trump has been essentially proposing something similar throughout the year. If he wants peace in Ukraine so much, why didn’t he let loose with the corruption kompromat earlier? Forget about the NABU, I’m quite certain that American law enforcement and intelligence agencies have always had their hands full of relevant material.

Zelenskyy's White House meeting with Trump and Vance unravels into a heated clash

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Remember this?

Regardless, the western press is saying all kinds of things about how peace is supposedly coming this week. Politico released this yesterday, on the 19th:

A senior White House official tells Dasha they expect a framework for ending the conflict to be agreed by all parties by the end of this month — and possibly “as soon as this week.”… The mood inside the White House is bullish, and it seems the plan will be presented to Zelenskyy as a fait accompli. “What we are going to present [to Ukraine] is reasonable,” the senior White House official tells Dasha. The Trump administration thinks Zelenskyy, under pressure both on the battlefield and on the home front (due to a burgeoning corruption scandal), will have to accept what’s on offer.

But how many times has Trump promised the same thing and failed? For its part, the Washington Post doubts that this latest peace offensive will have any results.

I still find the alternative conspiratorial reading of the NABU case more compelling - that it is intended to push Zelensky into agreeing to the EU’s demands to ramp up mobilization and fight for another few more years. While Trump’s US has cut the USAID funding that was once vital for the NABU, now the EU is its main sponsor. And the EU, unlike Trump, certainly isn’t raring for a ‘capitulation’ peace deal with Russia.

Merz Says Germany Will Step Up Ukraine Weapons Support as Zelensky Visits - The New York Times

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German Kaiser Friedrich Mertz and his Ukrainian counterpart

Still, it is entirely possible that Trump, seeing Zelensky on the ropes amidst the corruption scandal, decided that now was a good time to propose his peace deal once again.

And perhaps - perhaps - Zelensky, feeling threatened by domestic opposition and unwilling to go on the unpopular steps demanded by the EU, will see the peace deal offered by Trump (and Putin) as a more desirable off-ramp.

But this also seems somewhat logically questionable. The NABU’s corruption probe has severely worsened Zelensky’s image. Why would an increasingly unpopular president be more likely to make the most controversial decision imaginable — ending the war in such a way that immense Ukrainian losses would have been all for naught?

And I haven’t even gotten to the most obvious reason why I think the ‘NABU are Trump-Putin agents’ theory seems wack to me. That’s the fact that the NABU and the liberal parties supporting it are the most nationalist, militarist spheres in Ukrainian society.

They have also traditionally been at odds with Trump, to put it mildly. Funded and created by the US Democratic Party, Ukraine’s liberal nationalist NGOs and anti-corruption organs actually played a major role in the 2016 Russiagate affair, as I wrote here.

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Artem Sytnyk, head of NABU from 2015 to 2022, was one of the key individuals involved in released ‘secret documents’ showing links between Trump advisor Paul Manafort and Russian/Ukrainian elites

The nationalism of these liberals isn’t because they are all fighting at the front - quite the opposite. These groups, often called ‘Sorosites’ in Ukraine, are actually renowned for their draft-dodging proclivities. It is precisely their distance from real fighting and the fact that they receive their income from the west that makes them quite enthusiastic about continuing the war forever.

As I wrote earlier this week, the main Sorosite personalities have been calling for war for another 12-15 years. Military nationalists at the frontlines are disgusted, pointing out that the army simply cannot endure that long.

But to be clear, I don’t think that it is entirely impossible that the liberal nationalist opposition could be the ones to sign a peace deal. After all, it was the ‘opposition leader’ ex-president Petro Poroshenko who reluctantly agreed to the Minsk agreements back in early 2015. He did so because he was faced with massive frontline defeats and the threat of total military collapse. Realistically, this is what it will take for Zelensky to sign a peace agreement this time around.

Explainer: What Are the Minsk Agreements? - The Moscow Times

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Poroshenko (far right) at the second Minsk agreements, February 11, 2015. Not the face of a happy man

Anyway, let’s take a look at what Ukrainian liberals, nationalists, and Zelensky loyalists have been saying today.

The Zelensky loyalists are telling everyone to stop talking about corruption because it’s all a cunning plot by the peacenik Russian spy Trump and vengeful imprisoned oligarchs like Igor Kolomoisky.

The liberals angrily deny that their corruption probe against Zelensky has been on the command of the hated Trump to facilitate a ‘capitulation’ peace.

The frontline nationalists, finally, alternate between angrily raging at the demands in the peace talk, ridiculing the liberal opposition, and grimly accepting that a ‘capitulation’ peace is better than the collapse likely entailed by a drawn-out war.

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/peace-by-sunday

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Trump's 28 Points
November 20, 11:41 PM

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Trump's 28 Points

1. The sovereignty of Ukraine will be confirmed

. 2. A full and comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered resolved

3. Russia is expected not to invade neighboring countries, and NATO will not expand further

4. A US-mediated dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for interaction and future economic development

5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees

6. The number of Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel

7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its charters a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future

8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine

9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland

10. US guarantee:

▪️ The US will receive compensation for the guarantee

▪️ If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee

▪️ If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive, coordinated military response, will have all global sanctions reinstated, recognition of new territory, and all other benefits of this deal revoked

. If Ukraine fires a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be considered null and void.

11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is under consideration.

12. A robust global recovery package for Ukraine, including, but not limited to:

a. Establishment of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in high-growth industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence

; b. The United States will partner with Ukraine to jointly restore, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities

; c. Joint reconstruction efforts in war-torn areas to rebuild, reconstruct, and modernize cities and residential areas

; d. Infrastructure development

; e. Mining and natural resource extraction

; f. The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.

13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:

a. The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and individually.

b. The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement to achieve mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, Arctic rare earth metals projects, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.

c. Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8

. The frozen funds will be used as follows:

$100 billion of frozen Russian assets will be invested in U.S.-led reconstruction and investment efforts in Ukraine. The United States will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the volume of investment available for reconstruction in Ukraine. The frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate U.S.-Russia investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests in order to create a strong motivation not to return to conflict

15. A joint US-Russia working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure implementation of all provisions of this agreement

16. Russia will enshrine in law a policy of non-aggression against Europe and Ukraine

17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the nuclear non-proliferation and control treaties, including the START I Treaty

18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under IAEA supervision, and the electricity generated will be shared equally between Russia and Ukraine - 50:50

20. Both countries commit to implementing educational programs in schools and society aimed at understanding and tolerance of different cultures and the elimination of racism and prejudice:

a. Ukraine will accept EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.

b. Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education

. c. All Nazi ideology and activity must be rejected and banned.

21. Territories:

a. Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk will be recognized de facto as Russian, including by the United States

. b. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact

. c. Russia will renounce other agreed territories (probably referring to the parts of the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions seized by the Russian Federation - Ed.) that it controls outside the five regions.

d. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.

22. Following the agreement on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a violation of this commitment.

23. Russia will not interfere with Ukraine's use of the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transportation of grain through the Black Sea.

24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:

a. All remaining captives and bodies will be exchanged on an "all for all" basis

. b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children

. c. A family reunification program will be implemented

. Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.

25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days

. 26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive a full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to file claims or consider complaints in the future.

27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Peace Council chaired by President Trump. Sanctions will be provided for violations.

28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides withdraw to the agreed-upon points to begin implementing the agreement.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10198829.html

(This sounds more likely than that stuff spewed by the Telegraph. Regardless there's at least one deal-breakers here for each of the principles. )

Mysterious drones over Europe
November 20, 9:00 PM

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Mysterious drones over Europe

Significant Confessions

It turns out that it's very useful to look at European press reports during A. Hitler's rise to power in Germany, and then compare them with what's happening in European political circles today. There, it seems, they've largely forgotten the two world wars that began in this part of the world.

For example, the Italian newspaper Volonta d'Italia reported on March 4, 1934, that the German government was actively pushing Japan into war with the Soviet Union, while promising full support and recognition for the Japanese puppet state of Manchukuo in the part of China they had captured. If war broke out in the east, Hitler intended to occupy Ukraine, allowing Poland to invade Belarus and Lithuania, in exchange for receiving the so-called Polish Corridor from Warsaw. The newspaper reported that for several months, units of "Ukrainian volunteers" had been gathering and training in specially established camps near Berlin.

Berlin began whipping up anti-Soviet hysteria immediately after Hitler and the Nazis came to power in Germany. This was clearly demonstrated by the provocative Reichstag fire. Communists with ties to the USSR were accused of a crime actually committed by the Nazis themselves, led by Göring. However, a thorough investigation by the International Commission of Inquiry and the courageous defense of the accused, G. Dimitrov, and his comrades at the Nazi-instigated Leipzig Trial thwarted these vile plans.

On the eve of the Leipzig Trial of Communists, Dr. Goebbels's Propaganda Ministry resorted to a large-scale hoax. On June 24, 1933, all the newspapers of the Third Reich carried a front-page news item in large print: “Red plague over Berlin. Foreign aircraft of unknown type. They managed to escape unidentified. Germany is defenseless. Tomorrow, gas may be released or incendiary bombs dropped.”

“Details of the incident ” were also reported: “Berlin. June 23, 1933. This afternoon, foreign aircraft of an unknown type in Germany appeared over Berlin and dropped leaflets over the government district and in the eastern districts of the capital, in which the German government was thoroughly reviled. The air police were immediately notified. But they do not have their own aircraft, and the sports planes at the airfield could not match the speed of the foreign aircraft. Therefore, the latter managed to escape without being identified.”

A demand was voiced for immediate action to overcome "Germany's defenseless state in the air." Of course, no foreign, much less Soviet, aircraft appeared over Berlin or German territory, and no leaflets were dropped. But after the mythical "raid" of mysterious aircraft, the "Reich" began rapidly returning "tested military pilots" to service and training new aces for military aviation.

On May 17, 1934, the Vienna newspaper Neue Freie Presse published an interview between its London correspondent and an unnamed prominent British politician (later revealed to be Lord Lloyd, a friend of Winston Churchill and Nicholas Chamberlain), who revealed the essence of Western policy: "
1. We give Japan a free hand with regard to Russia."
2. We grant Germany the right to rearm... we open the way for Germany to the East, giving it the opportunity for expansion.
In this way, we distract Japan and Germany and keep Russia in check."

Then came the war.
On the day of the attack on the Soviet Union, Hitler, in an address to the German people, frightening Europe with the "Russian threat," declared: "Russian pilots are amusing themselves by carelessly flying over... the border, as if they want to show us that they already feel themselves masters of this territory." In reality, no such incidents occurred. On the contrary, the border violators were the Germans. On April 21, 1941, the General Secretary of the USSR People's Commissariat for Foreign Affairs, A.A. Sobolev, handed the German chargé d'affaires, W. Tippelskirch, a note regarding numerous instances of violations of the Soviet border (80 times between March 27 and April 18, 1941) by German aircraft. There was no response from Berlin, and the number of violations by the "Reich" increased exponentially. From April 19 to June 19, 1941, there were another 180 German aircraft flights over Soviet territory, at depths of up to 100 kilometers or more.

Eighty years ago, Hitler's Germany, along with all its allies in fascist Europe, suffered defeat in World War II. But now, again, in our own time, unidentified flying objects have been spotted over European capitals. "We can say that a powerful player is behind the appearance of drones over the capital's airport, but we don't yet know who it is," a Danish police spokesman told the press. But these "drones immediately disappeared." The country's prime minister declared it "the most serious attack on the Kingdom's critical infrastructure."

Authorities in neighboring Norway also "received information about possible drone activity over Oslo Airport" and therefore banned flights for several hours. A squadron of 15 drones was suddenly spotted in Belgium over the Elsenborn military base, located on the border with Germany. From there, they headed for Munich, Germany, whose airport was immediately closed, and the UAVs... disappeared. Belgian broadcaster VRT admits that "the origin of the drones and who was controlling them is unclear." However, it is known that the Elsenborn base is a testing ground... for the Belgian army for drones. Russia, however, is suspected of "violating" European airspace.

At least 10 countries have reported "mysterious drone incursions": Lithuania and Latvia, Denmark and Norway, Romania, Poland and Estonia, Germany and France. Europeans are clearly being prepared for the fact that "Russia will definitely attack," and from Berlin we hear again: "...We face a constant threat of provocations from the Russian armed forces in the airspace of the Baltic states, in the Baltic Sea, in the water, under water, as well as in Central Europe through hybrid attacks or similar flights."

https://gazeta-pravda.ru/issue/128-3176 ... riznaniya/ - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10198497.html

Liberation of Yampol. November 20, 2025.
November 21, 3:02 PM

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Liberation of the urban settlement of Yampol by units of the 25th Army of the Russian Armed Forces. (Video at link.)

The city was lost to Donbas militia units in the summer of 2014. After the start of the Second World War, it returned to Russia but was abandoned during the retreat from Izyum and Balakleya. And now it's back home again. This time for good.

Krasny Liman lies ahead. The fighting for the city has already begun.

P.S. For history buffs, I recommend the article ( https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1632666.html ) about the Battle of Yampol on June 19, 2014, between a group of militiamen led by "Prapor" and the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This battle near Yampol is also well described in the book "Notes of a Terrorist."

Below are photos of participants in the battle near Yampol in the summer of 2014.

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(Other photos at link.)

Photos https://www.yaplakal.com/forum2/topic84 ... aNycGzNC30

Many in these photos are no longer alive. But their fight was not in vain. They contributed to the return of Donbas to Russia. Remember those with whom it all began.

PS2. What a good day today.

(Indeed. Slavyansk will be the icing on the cake.)

Google Translator

Liberation of Radostny. November 21, 2025
November 21, 1:06 PM

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Russian troops, continuing their offensive at the junction of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, liberated the village of Radostnoye in the Dnipropetrovsk region, expanding control over the Pokrovskoye-Hulyaipole highway. (Video at link.)

Further south, the defenses at Zelenyi Gai fell today.

The "Vostok" group is advancing westward without stopping. They are the true record-breakers of the autumn of 2025.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10199636.html

Liberation of Kupyansk. November 20, 2025.
November 21, 10:57

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On November 20, 2025, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov announced the liberation of the city of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region, which our troops abandoned in the fall of 2022 after retreating from Balakleya and Izyum. Three years later, we have returned. After prolonged and fierce fighting, the city was liberated by units of the "West" group of forces. (Video at link.)

The remnants of the enemy group are blocked in the area of ​​the Kupyansk-Uzlovaya station. According to the Chief of General Staff, the remnants of 15 Ukrainian Armed Forces battalions are blocked there.

This morning, it was reported that Russian troops liberated the important village of Ivanopolye, which covered Kostiantynivka from the south.
Zeleny Hai, east of Hulyaipole, has also been liberated. Next, the neighboring Vysokyi village will fall. After that, the outskirts of Hulyaipole.

Our forces picked up good momentum in November, and it appears that November 2025 will be a record-breaking year for the liberation of territory.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10199449.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Nov 22, 2025 12:44 pm

The threat to peace
Published by @nsanzo ⋅ 22/11/2025

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With the uncertainty now cleared as to whether Steve Witkoff's plan, leaked to outlets like Axios and published in its entirety, was a personal initiative of Trump's envoy to Russia in collaboration with Kirill Dimitrev, the White House's 28-point plan is currently at the center of political debate in Ukraine, Russia, and the European Union. "Ukraine is facing increased pressure from Washington to accept the framework of a US-mediated peace agreement with Russia, including threats to cease intelligence and arms supplies," Reuters reported yesterday , one of the many media outlets analyzing the US proposal, how it has been handled, and the speed of response demanded of Kyiv. Donald Trump, who continues to falsely claim to have resolved eight wars, wants to completely disassociate himself from a situation—the war in Europe—that is of no interest to him whatsoever, and have the situation resolved before Thanksgiving, that is, next Thursday.

This week, which began with a corruption scandal threatening to bring down Zelensky's cabinet and his right-hand man Andriy Ermak, and continued with a tour reaffirming European support for the Ukrainian president, has ended with completely unexpected external political pressure. On Tuesday, there were reports of the arrival in Kyiv of high-ranking Pentagon representatives, envoys of Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense who has consistently refused to visit Ukraine. At the time, the media assumed that this American presence in Kyiv was a sign of US commitment to Ukrainian military development, especially collaboration in the drone production sector. However, according to reports, one of the missions of this delegation was the official handover of the Witkoff Plan , which the Ukrainian government officially announced it had received on Thursday evening. The visit to Istanbul, which Zelensky intended to use to present Ukrainian demands in his meeting with the president and Steve Witkoff and to insist on the need to put more pressure on Russia, also turned out to be a failed spectacle, and the Ukrainian leader returned to kyiv between the sword of Damocles of a diplomacy under extreme pressure from his enemy, who is advancing on the front and still not collapsing economically, and his ally, who is demanding speed in the acceptance of the plan.

“The President of Ukraine has officially received a draft plan from the US side which, according to the US assessment, could help revitalize diplomacy. The President of Ukraine outlined the fundamental principles that matter to our people, and following today’s meeting, the parties agreed to work on the plan’s provisions in a way that will bring a just end to the war. From the very first seconds of the Russian invasion, Ukraine has sought peace and we support all substantive proposals that can bring us closer to genuine peace. Since the beginning of this year, Ukraine has supported President Trump’s proposals aimed at ending the bloodshed. We are ready now, as before, to work constructively with the United States, as well as with our partners in Europe and around the world, so that the outcome is peace. In the coming days, the President of Ukraine looks forward to discussing with President Trump the existing diplomatic opportunities and the key points needed to achieve peace,” stated the communiqué published by Ukraine to lend credibility to the White House plan, but also to try to reduce it from a plan to be accepted or rejected to a mere collection of ideas about those that would initiate some kind of negotiation in which Ukraine would take the lead.

Hours earlier, when Kyiv still naively clung to the confidence of those who had bought into the propaganda's image of its own strength and the enemy's weakness, Mikhail Podolyak, an advisor to Andriy Ermak, wrote that “Ukraine is different. We are dedicated to creating, building, trading, and prospering alongside our neighbors. Russia, on the other hand, exists like a plague of locusts: it comes, destroys, and takes everything of value. The border between us is not only on the map but also in our value systems. That is why forced Russification will not work; on the contrary, for Russia to return to the community of normal states and nations, Russians will have to—paradoxical and strange as it may seem—become Ukrainian. Or Europeanized. Or disappear in their current form as a relic of the past, uncompetitive.” His words are a clear example of how Ukraine, partly misled by the European Union's stance of advocating for war to the bitter end, remained convinced that it could dictate both the form and substance of the conflict's resolution.

The contrast between that certainty and the speech delivered yesterday by Volodymyr Zelensky reflects the shift that has occurred this week. “Right now, we are living through one of the most difficult moments in our history. At this moment, Ukraine may face a very difficult choice: either the loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner. Either the difficult 28 points, or an extremely harsh winter, the harshest, and even more risks. A life without freedom, dignity, or justice, and believing someone who has already attacked twice. They will expect a response from us. Right now, the pressure on Ukraine is among the strongest. There will be a constructive search for solutions with the United States. I will present arguments, persuade, and propose alternatives, but we will not give the enemy any reason to say that it is Ukraine that does not want peace,” Zelensky stated in a video whose subtext seems to convey his determination to fight for the country's dignity under impossible conditions, before being forced to accept terms he considers unacceptable. “That will not happen,” the Ukrainian president declared, visibly worried.

“If the Ukrainian government were to accept the so-called 28-point plan and relinquish Donbas, it could risk a serious breakdown in civil-military relations. The current military situation does not justify handing over these territories, and such concessions would almost certainly fuel a sense of betrayal within the armed forces, undermining confidence in Ukraine’s civilian leadership,” wrote modern warfare expert Franz-Stefan Gady. The adoption of the “stab in the back” narrative—a myth used by Nazism in its rise to power in reference to World War I—has been one of the messages that, along with the umpteenth appeal that the terms would amount to a modern-day Munich , has quickly become the central argument of those demanding the plan’s withdrawal.

Media outlets sympathetic to Kyiv's cause have reacted similarly. “The US plan to end the Russian invasion is a remarkable document. It rewards aggression and punishes the victim. It undermines the most important principle of international law, which states that sovereign borders should not be altered by force. It suggests security guarantees, but does not specify how they would be implemented, and then limits the means by which they could be enforced,” stated yesterday's Bloomberg editorial , which calls the plan “insulting” and proclaims that “it should be rejected.”

“When an unacceptable text is presented in its current form, amendments are proposed instead of creating a major uproar. At the risk of offending, I believe the structure of this text reflects a realistic view of what is possible. Then, negotiations take place,” wrote former French diplomat Gerard Araud on social media in response to one of the many examples of exaggerated catastrophist reactions triggered by the full publication of a document that Ukraine has taken as a series of ideas on which to begin negotiations, rather than a final proposal.

The United States' plan for Ukraine and Russia

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The analysis of the 28 points put forward by the White House requires examining the proposals in six distinct sections: peace, security guarantees, territories, reconstruction, geopolitical aspects, and sociocultural issues. The plan begins by reaffirming Ukrainian sovereignty, a point it later qualifies to limit the territory over which Kyiv can exercise it, taking into account the realities of the front lines and, in the case of Donbas, the commitment to the idea of ​​peace through territorial exchanges to halt the bloodshed. “A comprehensive and complete non-aggression pact will be signed between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. All ambiguities of the past 30 years will be considered resolved,” it states, demonstrating an attempt to prevent any future irredentism and an aspiration to resolve not only the military issue but also the broader political conflict between Kyiv and Moscow.

In the area of ​​security, the text proclaims that “Ukraine agrees to include in its Constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.” Unacceptable from the outset for both NATO, which since 2008 has insisted on Ukraine’s “irreversible path to the Alliance,” and for Kyiv, which included it in the preamble to its Constitution, this point would, a priori, fulfill Russia’s main demand, for whom halting the Alliance’s expansion to its borders is a primary concern. The ambiguity of the term “in the future” and the possibility of modifying what is included in statutes or legislation cannot obscure the fact that this would be the first commitment Russia would obtain from the Cold War alliance to limit its expansion—something promised verbally to Mikhail Gorbachev, but which the then Soviet leader was unable to secure in writing. For the first time, a document proposed by the United States proclaims that “NATO is expected to not expand further.”

In terms of Western security guarantees, the document prohibits NATO from “stationing troops” in Ukraine, but indicates that European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland and adds security guarantees from the United States—a basic Ukrainian demand that Trump had previously rejected. These guarantees, which are not detailed in the plan itself but in a separate document that warrants its own analysis, are not absolute. Ukraine, which would have to compensate the United States for them, would lose this protection if it launched missiles at Moscow or St. Petersburg or invaded Russia. Although it states that “Russia is not expected to invade neighboring countries,” it specifies that “if Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a coordinated and decisive military response, all sanctions will be reinstated and the recognition of the new territories and all other benefits will be revoked.” Following the strategy of incentives and threats, the plan anticipates sanctions in the event of an attack on a neighbor and, in the case of Russia, a perhaps vague but real military threat in the event of an attack. In one of the most discussed points, the document demands a reduction of the Ukrainian army.

“The 600,000-strong army limit isn't really a restriction. Before the invasion, Ukraine had 250,000 soldiers, and throughout its history—right after independence—it maintained forces of between 700,000 and 800,000, according to Soviet standards. Today, Ukraine lacks the resources and personnel necessary to sustain a 600,000-strong army, which would be one of the largest in the world. In fact, this isn't the central issue of the peace plan,” explained Brazilian military analyst Patricia Marins regarding one of the topics generating the most reactions. The reason is the apparent imposition on Ukraine of one of Russia's 2022 demands: demilitarization. Ukraine, which aspires to become what von der Leyen calls a military porcupine—a fortified, militarized country armed to the teeth (Israel has always been the ideal model)—has no intention of making concessions in this regard. However, the data shows that what is presented as a concession to Russia is, in reality, a false impression in a country that would become far more militarized than before the Russian invasion, when the military sector's influence and the militarization of society were already significantly greater—and in the case of the nationalist battalions, extremely dangerous—than what it had been accustomed to in previous decades.

“After agreeing to future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine commit to not modifying these arrangements by force. Security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment,” states the plan, linking the security issue to the territorial one—undoubtedly the most unfavorable aspect for Ukraine, which would be required to withdraw from 14.5% of Donbas under Russian military threat, but still under its control. “Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of the Donetsk region they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral, demilitarized buffer zone , internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone,” it explains, adding this demilitarization formula to anticipate Ukraine's refusal to abandon territory under the premise that it could be used by the Russian Federation as a springboard for a future attack against Kyiv. As indicated elsewhere, the aforementioned recognition would be de facto , not de jure.

With the exception of Donbas, the document adheres to the current contact line as the de facto border . Russia would hand over to Ukraine the territories it controls in other Ukrainian regions (Kharkiv, Soumi, and Dnipropetrovsk), but would retain those under its control in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, including the Energodar nuclear power plant, which would operate under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency and supply energy equally to Russia and Ukraine.

Ukraine would receive a large share of the concessions outlined in the reconstruction plan, which would involve European countries, the United States, and the World Bank, and would be partially financed by Russian assets held abroad. “$100 billion of frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led initiatives to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The United States will receive 50% of the profits from this initiative. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remaining frozen Russian funds will be invested in an independent US-Russian investment vehicle that will carry out joint projects in specific areas. This fund will aim to strengthen relations and increase common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict,” the plan states. Russia long ago considered those assets lost and, as Reuters reported in the spring, even leaked its offer to use them for the reconstruction of Ukraine, provided that the territories under its control were also included. This leaked proposal fell on deaf ears and was quickly forgotten, primarily due to the European intention to punish both Russia and the territories under its control and seize the assets for use in war, not peace. The remaining assets would be used in joint projects with the United States, the main economic beneficiary of this plan.

Regarding sanctions, as with reconstruction, the terms reveal a clear colonial undertone of US tutelage and actions at its service. The plan envisions a gradual, conditional, and case-by-case lifting of sanctions—a form of subordination of Russia to the United States that would be unacceptable if the colonial role were assumed by EU countries. The same argument is used to justify allocating a portion of the funds to reconstruction: a way to pay war reparations, but also to prevent the funds from being used against Russia or falling into the hands of European countries, whose interests are disregarded. Moreover, in geopolitical terms, Brussels and London are the main losers. “A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create the necessary conditions for détente, in order to guarantee global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development,” the proposal states, demanding that NATO member countries engage in political dialogue with Russia, something they have repeatedly rejected. Forced to accept terms in whose design they have not participated, European countries would have to accept what they have fought against, readmitting Russia into international relations and even into the G8, which would represent a clear strategic defeat for those who have tried to use the war in Ukraine as a geopolitical tool against a historical enemy.

Also important are the humanitarian aspects of releasing detainees, exchanging prisoners and civilians, returning children to their families, and granting amnesty. A senior U.S. official stated that Ukraine significantly altered one of the 28 points in the version that appeared online. In an apparent maneuver to expose alleged corruption, the draft called for an audit of all international aid Ukraine had received. The text was modified to indicate that all parties would receive “full amnesty for their actions during the war,” The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday , implying an attempt to shield wartime corruption and ensure impunity as a way to avoid prosecutions like the one currently plaguing Zelensky’s inner circle, including Rustem Umerov.

Echoing another of the Russian demands, the document also includes the demand to grant the Russian language official status, freedom of education and press in Ukrainian and Russian in both countries - aspects that, although currently controversial, were part of Zelensky's electoral program - and the prohibition and rejection of "all Nazi ideology and activities", a way of responding to the Russian demand for denazification .

The document concludes by insisting that the agreement is “legally binding” and will be “monitored and enforced by the Peace Council, chaired by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.” The colonial nature of the Middle East peace agreement is reiterated in this plan, which gives Ukraine 100 days to hold new elections.

Although Russia would commit to severe concessions in economic terms, oversight, and sanctions—an area in which Trump has confirmed that measures against Russian oil, a competitor to American oil, would not be lifted—it is Ukraine that is being required to cross virtually all of Russia's red lines. Even with the lack of de jure recognition of Russian control over the territories of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, and significant parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and the possibility of maintaining the fiction of a future reunification, Ukraine would have to accept the loss of territory, resign—even if only temporarily—from NATO, readmit Russia to international relations as an equal partner, and impose limitations on the nationalist legislation that has been implemented over the past decade.

Despite the pressure of being pressured to accept the agreement within days, Ukraine is striving to make this plan a list of ideas that can still be significantly modified. “We managed to address many details of the US side’s proposals to end the war, and we are working to ensure that the path forward is dignified and truly effective in achieving lasting peace. I appreciate the attention and willingness to collaborate with us and our partners. We agreed to work jointly with the United States and Europe at the level of national security advisors to make the path to peace truly feasible. Ukraine has always respected and continues to respect US President Donald Trump’s desire to end the bloodshed, and we welcome any realistic proposal. We agreed to maintain constant contact, and our teams are ready to work around the clock,” Zelensky wrote about his conversation with JD Vance. The use of the concept of a "just peace ," commonly employed by Ukraine to describe peace on its terms, indicates Zelensky's willingness to secure concessions to an agreement unacceptable to Kyiv and one that directly contradicts the image of strength the Ukrainian government has consistently projected to its population. In this endeavor, the Ukrainian president will have the support of European countries, which, as after the Alaska summit, are mobilizing to travel to Washington to prevent the implementation of this plan. The main danger of this plan lies not in the concessions themselves, the vagueness of some of its terms, or the unacceptability of others, but rather in the fact that it represents the first roadmap upon which to negotiate a peace treaty.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/11/22/la-amenaza-de-la-paz/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The price of peace cannot be the achievement of the strategic goals of the Russian Federation (c) Polish President Nawrocki.

All the goals of the Central Military District will be achieved (c) Putin.

***

Colonelcassad
Negotiations between the US, EU, and Ukraine will take place in Switzerland in the coming days. During these talks, Ukraine and Europe will attempt to soften some of the provisions proposed by Trump for Ukraine.
Whether Russia is interested in these "softened provisions" is another matter. I believe, in the spirit of "Anchorage," the Americans have been told it's this way or that.

Ukraine will be sending Yermak, Umerov, and Budanov there, along with Gnatov, Poklad, and others.

***

Colonelcassad
Any criticism of the Trump peace agreement is a misunderstanding of the realities on the ground, says Vance.

Any Ukrainian-Russian peace plan must:

1) stop the killing while preserving Ukrainian sovereignty.
2) be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine.
3) maximize the chances that war will not resume.

Any criticism of the peace agreement the administration is working on either misunderstands it or distorts some critical realities on the ground.

There is an illusion that if we simply give more money, weapons, or impose more sanctions, victory will be within reach. Peace cannot be achieved by failed diplomats or politicians living in a fantasy world. It can be achieved by smart people living in the real world.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – November 20th, 2025 Part 2

Summary from Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Nov 21, 2025


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ЛБС 10.11.24=Line of Combat Contact November 10th, 2024. ЛБС 01.02.25=Line of Combat Contact February 1st, 2025.

At a meeting with the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, the Chief of the General Staff, Army General V.V. Gerasimov, reported on the liberation of Kupyansk.

Units of the “West” group, after the liberation of Kupyansk, continue to destroy formations on the left bank of the Oskol River.

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https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... r-20th-a3a

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Yet Another Dead-on-Arrival Ukraine Peace Scheme: Leaked 28 Point Plan Predictably Unable to Reconcile Irreconcilable Positions
Posted on November 21, 2025 by Yves Smith

The Ukraine-war-following press and commentators have had to weigh in on the latest bright shiny object, in the form of rumors of revived peace talks between the US and Russia. An outline of the purported 28 point plan is on Twitter; Larry Johnson reports it came from the Russian negotiator, Kiril Dimitriev, a special envoy to Putin.

The negotiation scheme (not clear whether this term sheet or a somewhat similar outline of key provisions) has already been rejected by Ukraine and the Europeans, although Bloomberg says Zelensky after having been browbeaten by a delegation of US military officials is deigning to entertain it.

Helmer points out in a related post that while Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov maintains that there are no discussions underway beyond the items in the Alaska summit, other Russian-connected sources contend that there could be competition between official and unofficial channels. And Helmer further points out that the 28 points are similar to a 31 point outline from Russia in June. But one suspects that artful wording has considerably shifted what some of those statements said, such as a very cheeky claim in the Telegraph and elsewhere that Russia is being asked to lease the Donbass. Lordie.

As we show below, Johnson and other Russia-sympathetic commentators have described in detail this proposal will be unacceptable to the Russian side. Even before getting to the outline, the elephant in the room is that it is now obvious that Russia will win and can decide how far to go in territorial acquisition. So why should they concede anything, particularly since Europe is just about guaranteed to behave as badly as it is no matter how the war concludes (absent perhaps a continued grind producing more and more regime changes in key EU member states)?

And to underscore the point, a fresh story:

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A new, detailed post on Ameriknets sets forth in detail the latest development in the electricity war. Its conclusions:

The available evidence suggests that Russian strikes are outpacing Ukraine’s ability to repair its grid. Two weeks after the strike on the 7th, a generous timeframe to complete major repairs considering how efficient Ukraine’s engineers have become, the situation has only continued to deteriorate. Major urban centers are now without power for the majority of the day. With the situation spiraling out of control, outage schedules have been temporarily discarded in some areas….

The damage to transmission infrastructure has been severe enough that Ukraine’s three nuclear power plants, which provide more than half of its energy, have been forced to further limit their output as their connections to the rest of the country are severed.

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A perfect storm is now hitting Ukraine, as political, battlefield, and infrastructural pressure mount to unprecedented levels since the war began. Full grid collapse is now on the table. It’s just a question of if the Russians will choose to pull the plug.

This outcome should come as no surprise. We have been pointing out since the idea of US-Russia negotiations came up that they would fail due to the lack of an overlap in the bargaining positions of both sides…..which are not the US and Russia, but Russia and Ukraine, with Ukraine backed by an increasingly divided set of coalition partners.

Before we get to issues of substance, as in highlighting why many of the points in this plan are unacceptable, let’s consider oft-neglected process issues.

Despite the press treating these provisions as hashed out by the US and Russia, neither negotiator is operating in an official capacity. Steve Witkoff is not a member of any US official body but is a special advisor to Donald Trump. Dimitriev is operating in an analogous capacity for Vladimir Putin. Both should be viewed as agents who cannot bind their principals but can float ideas. It is not clear how much official backing any of these ideas had. The Russians are well aware of Witkoff’s inability to make firm commitments. When Witkoff met with Putin in early August, Witkoff presented a proposal that had enough promise for Putin to agree to meet Trump in Alaska. As has since been recounted, Putin felt it necessary to review all the terms with Trump in person and get his confirmation that Trump was on board with them. Similarly, Larry Johnson just interviewed the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Maria Zharakova. She said the ministry had not received a formal document. So as far as the Russian government is concerned, this is still a trial balloon, although presumably they will be in receipt soon.

Aside from the Russian disposition to adhere to formalities, another reason for its skepticism is that the US cannot commit key members of the coalition, Ukraine, the UK, and European states, and they have not been on board with the process of settling the war, save unless “settlement” is tantamount to Russian capitulation. That happened dramatically with the flip-flop after the Alaska summit, where Lavrov later reported that Trump said he would get Zelensky to agree to the outline then. Instead, after meeting with Zelensky, Trump repudiated the preliminary deal and reverted to the older Ukraine “ceasefire first, deal if ever later” formula that Trump had dropped in Alaska.

We see again and again Trump pretending he can be a broker, when the US is a principal. The tacit assumption has been that the US can browbeat Ukraine, the UK and Europe into compliance when that had not happened. And it is vastly less likely to happen than ever due to the US refusing to fund the war and cutting back on NATO support. He who has the gold sets the rules, but gold-lover Trump has forgotten that. Europe has accepted the premise that it will have to fund Ukraine even though it has no idea as to how to do so ex stealing Russia’s frozen assets.

To give one example of that wee problem, see this item from the list:

13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:

a. The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages on a case-by-case basis;

b. The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities;

c. Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.

Notice the lack of agency for item (a)? The sanctions are not just US sanctions. The EU is up to its 19th package. And the EU has worked itself into such a fervor over Russia as an imminent threat that there is no way they will unwind them.

Point 14 has $100 billion of the frozen Russian assets going to US-led reconstruction fund…where the US gets 50% of the profits! And I want a pony.

There’s a lot of speculation as to why this scheme now, when that line of speculation does not seem productive, given how erratic Trump is. But since Trump knows nothing beyond what Fox News and key insiders tell him, the idea that he was trying to take advantage of a small beer corruption scandal, relative to all the hands-over-fists looting of foreign contributions, seems improbable. That is confirmed by the very deep and detailed reading of the political tea leaves by the site Events in Ukraine, which sees the scandal uproar as the doings of opposition figures taking advantage of rising upset in the Rada over the prospect of a Ukraine loss, plus simmering resentment over the earlier Zelensky attempt to quash the investigation bodies. Alexander Mercouris reports he has confirmation of that general story line from a Hungarian contact, who points out that the anti-corruption agencies are funded by the EU, so there’s no US nexus. The UK and EU do not want Ukraine to settle the war. A rare official editorial weighs at the Financial Ties in against the idea of a unity government (and any move to replace Zelensky now) as too destabilizing, so they press for a house-cleaning instead.
A “national government of unity” is what the Rada rebels led by former Prime Minister Petro Poroshenko were seeking, so the Financial Times editorial suggests they lack the external support they would need.

It seems just as likely that Trump felt the need to again look like the driver of events after his Epstein climbdown and now pushback on Venezuela, including a commercial urging members of the military to refuse unlawful orders. Mind you, the latter went live after the Witkoff-Dimitriev talks had gotten going, but that along with continuing deteriorating polls shows that Trump is facing more and more opposition. One of the last things he wants is to be depicted as having lost Ukraine. Trump is deluded enough to think he can somehow get a deal despite the vast evidence that the only one that could happen is some form of Ukraine capitulation.

Let’s look at some of the many thumb’s down reviews of this tired rerun of the peace pact drama. The Financial Times reports on yet another piece of typical Trump empty bravura, that he wants Zelensky to capitulate by Thanksgiving. I seem to recall he similarly demanded a summit with Putin by Valentine’s Day, which didn’t happen either.

Oliver Boyd-Barrett adopts a suitably dismissive stance:

As I worried yesterday, none of this is serious. There is no reason whatsoever why Russia, winning on the battlefield, with Putin’s June 2024 terms long outdated by battefield advances, amidst a forever stream of evidence that confirms that the US is agreement-incapable, would want to pick up on this insane mishmash, let alone why Ukraine or Europe would sign it either. Note that it is only “expected” that NATO will not expand. Yes, Ukraine would have to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO and NATO would agree a statute prohibiting acceptance of NATO as a member, but Ukraine would retain the right to EU membership.

Once again, after four miserable years of comparable US stupidity, the whole thing is being framed as Mr. Nice USA sorting out a playground scruffle between two equally pugnacious little boys. The Washington mindset, in other words, is a fantasy of benign hegemony. Ukraine would be allowed an absolutely idiotic 600,000-sized army (Russia in 2022 was talking of a cap of 85,000) and given “reliable” security guarantees. No foreign troops in Ukraine (I assume but do not see this as explicitly stated) but European fighter aircraft would be stationed in Poland.

Oddly, Boyd-Barrett does not flag this item as a no-go:

Kherson and Zapporizhzhia would be frozen along the line of contact; Russia would renounce other annexed territories (other than Crimea and the Donbass).

Russia has changed its constitution to incorporate all of Kherson and Zaporzhizhia into the Russian Federation. Even though Russia does not yet occupy them, securing all four oblasts in full has been one of Russia’s consistent requirements for ending the war since Putin’s Foreign Ministry speech in June 2024.

From Mark Wauck:

It looks like a stunt. Perhaps there’s an expectation or hope that Putin will get sucked into this. But when you read it you see that very little is actually hard and fast—except for those items that Russia will likely see as unacceptable, it’s full of dialogue and discussion and expectations. Nothing really binding. This is undoubtedly why the US is pushing this hard while the Russians are denying that they’ve agreed to anything—Trump is trying to stampede the Russians. Much of the document appears totally unacceptable for any thinking Russian. Which is probably the point—to try to wrong foot Putin and Russia in world opinion.

Larry Johnson provided a fine recap of why the Russians will have to say “nyet” in The Alleged 28-Point Ukrainian and Russian Peace Plan, where he (like many others) goes through the entire list. Some of deadly items he highlighted:

3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and that NATO will not expand further.

The word, expected, is a major stumbling block… Russia will insist on an iron-clad guarantee that NATO will end expansion and remove weapon systems from Romania and Poland that are capable of launching nuclear missiles….


6. The size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be limited to 600,000 personnel.

In February 2022, at the start of Russia’s special military operation, the total size of the Ukrainian military was about 260,000–280,000 active-duty personnel, including all branches (ground forces, air force, navy, airborne, marines, and special operations). There is no way that Russia will agree to a 600,000 number. During the negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul in March 2022, Russia demanded a peacetime cap of 85,000 active personnel for Ukraine’s armed forces, a figure far below Ukraine’s pre-war standing army of approximately 200,000–250,000 troops. This was part of broader Russian demands for demilitarization, including restrictions on tanks (e.g., fewer than 400), aircraft (e.g., 60–80 combat aircraft), missiles (range limited to 40 km), and artillery systems

/blockquote>9. European fighter aircraft will be stationed in Poland.

I believe that Russia will demand specific limitations on the type of NATO aircraft that will be allowed in Poland.

Simplicius flags the characteristic amateurism of the process….:

Now the plan has come together with the announcement of a secretly-developed, major new peace formula for the ending of the war. The problem is, the details are extremely scattered and incongruous, leading to the perception of the proceedings being more the product of some smoke-filled mafia ‘sit-down’ rather than a professionally transparent political process.

That’s because—as has become de rigueur under Trump’s leadership—the details are filled with hazy ambiguities and contradictions.

…and some howlers:

The most important part is: the agreement is “legally binding”.

Legally bound by whom, exactly? Who is the guarantor here, Trump? The failing autarch likely to be impeached after 2026? What happens then? Clearly, from Russia’s standpoint, there is little merit here.

Armchair Warlord aptly notes:

Deal-breakers in here:
– The Russians will not accept territorial ambiguity or demilitarized zones on their own territory.
– The Russians will not accept “conditional” recognition of their own nation’s borders.
– The Russians will not hand over Russian children.
– ZNPP is a Russian nuclear power plant that must be managed by Rosatom; the IAEA is a joke.
– The Russians are not going to give amnesty to Ukraine’s parade of Nazis and war criminals.
– A 600,000-man AFU is ludicrous.

If the deal is “Donetsk, Lugansk, and uti possidetis, all legally recognized by NATO as the international border,” a 60,000-man AFU with no long-range weapons, Russian language and religious rights, and a ban on the Nazis? Then we might be getting somewhere.

Not to mention this bit, according to the Telegraph:

Russia will pay a rental fee to Ukraine for de facto control over Donbass under US plan — The Telegraph

The plan would force Ukraine to lease the eastern Donbass region to Russia, ceding operational control while maintaining legal ownership

In what world would that happen in?

Even some less-critical-seeming items are unlikely to wash in Russia. One is that both sides will forgive each other for acts perpetrated during the war. But Ukraine soldiers brutally tortured Russian soldiers early on, with some of quite a bit of video evidence making its way into Russian Telegram. Russia promised war crimes trials. And tellingly, Putin just remarked that crimes committed by Nazis have no statute of limitations. How can Russia forgive these Nazi wannabes in light of that view?

As for the UK/Europe side, some of the raspberries. From the Wall Street Journal:

European officials pushed back against a U.S. proposal for ending the Ukraine war, saying that Kyiv must approve any plan and that the conflict must not end with a Ukrainian capitulation.

European officials will now have to reprise a role they have played periodically since President Trump’s return to the White House in January: using connections in Washington to try to pull the administration back from a proposal they see as too favorable to Russia….

European officials said they hadn’t been involved in drafting the plan and hadn’t so far been briefed on the U.S. proposal. A senior European diplomat said it wasn’t clear whether Europeans will get more information from Washington soon….

The plan includes several elements that Ukraine and its European allies have long opposed. It says that Ukraine would have to surrender some land in Ukraine’s east that Kyiv still holds. It would place a cap on the size of Ukraine’s military and reduce the type of long-range weapons Kyiv receives from allies, which European officials have warned could open the way for a future Russian attack on Ukraine and more loss of territory.

It would also block a so-called reassurance force that the Europeans have offered to send to Ukraine if there is a peace deal.

From the Financial Times:

The 28-point peace plan, endorsed by President Donald Trump on Thursday and developed by US and Russian negotiators, envisages major concessions by Kyiv that would cross its long-standing red lines…

They added that US officials expect ​Zelenskyy to sign the agreement “before Thanksgiving” on Thursday next week, with the aim of presenting a peace deal in Moscow later this month and concluding the process by early December.

That timeline appears highly unlikely to be achieved since officials in Zelenskyy’s office said there were several points that were clear red lines for Kyiv.

They added they were working on counter proposals to present to the US side. Ukrainian civil society is also likely to push back against any deal that is perceived as capitulation or more favourable to Moscow.

“It’s minerals deal 2.0,” said a senior Ukrainian official, referring to the contentious accord between Kyiv and Washington thrashed out over several months earlier this year that gave the US rights to Ukraine’s critical minerals.

From Politico’s morning European newsletter:

U.S. TOUTS “AGGRESSIVE TIMELINE” FOR PEACE: European officials are scrambling to weigh in on a peace deal that Washington wants Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to sign in the coming days. The deal, which Axios and others have published in full, requires Kyiv to make significant concessions.

Europe speaks up: Following reports that the 28-point plan would force Kyiv to reduce the size of its army, hand over the entire Donbas and legally recognize territories seized by Moscow’s forces, top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas weighed in to say it contained “no concessions from Russia.” Among other measures, the plan would see Russia invited to rejoin the G8.

Ceasefire first: German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Russia must “immediately halt the attacks on energy infrastructure” now that winter is beginning,…

Talking up a storm: An EU official texted Playbook that there was a “flurry of diplomacy” ongoing as Europeans try to shore up the Ukrainian position and avoid a agreement that’s lopsided in Russia’s favor. “We can’t afford a deal that endangers European security,” the official said…..

Toning it down: Dave Butler, communications adviser to the U.S. Army’s chief of staff, said the U.S. and Ukraine were discussing a “collaborative” and “comprehensive” plan to end the war.

Behind closed doors: The emphasis on collaboration hints at flexibility on some demands in the plan — which Ukraine’s foreign minister blasted on Thursday during closed-door comments with EU foreign ministers, according to a person aware of his remarks. “They want Ukraine to capitulate,” Andrii Sybiha said during a video call, per the same person…

The bottom line: Ukraine has been here before, namely when Trump sought to impose a lopsided mining agreement on Kyiv. The Ukrainian side ultimately agreed to the plan, with considerable modifications. But despite all the drama, the deal didn’t bring peace any closer. This time may be no different.

However, keep in mind that the new conventional wisdom even among the not-entirely-rabid Ukraine-backers is that it can’t hold out for more than a few months unless something big breaks its way. This crowd seems to harbor the fond notion that they can break the Russian economy if they just hang on.

Predictably, European leaders have rallied behind Zelensky. From the Guardian’s lead story Starmer, Merz and Macron confirm full support for Ukraine after call with Zelenskyy about US plan – Europe live. Importantly, they are trying to throw a spanner by insisting that they have to agree to the pact too:

Merz, Macron, Starmer confirm full support for Ukraine after call with Zelenskyy, Germany confirms
A spokesperson for the German chancellor, Fredrich Merz, has just confirmed that Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron, and UK’s Keir Starmer spoke with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, earlier this morning.

The readout, published in German, said the leaders confirmed their “unwavering and full support for Ukraine on the path to a lasting and just peace.”

The leaders also “welcomed the US efforts to end the war in Ukraine,”…

But, crucially, they also noted that any peace agreement “affecting European states, the European Union, or Nato requires the approval of European partners or a consensus among the allies.”

And fresh reports are coming in that the US is trying to bludgeon Ukraine into compliance…which is another reason for trying to keep the Europeans in the dark. From the Telegraph:

The United States has threatened to cut off weapons and intelligence to Ukraine unless it signs Donald Trump’s peace deal by next Thursday.

Sources said Ukraine was under greater pressure from Washington to bow to the US president’s demands than in previous negotiation efforts.

“They want to stop the war and want Ukraine to pay the price,” one of the sources told Reuters.

Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday he would use the plan as the basis for negotiations with Russia but Kyiv has warned its red lines must not be crossed in any peace deal.

The Ukrainian leader spoke to his European allies on Friday, including Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, who “welcomed efforts of the US” but called for a “just and lasting peace” for Ukraine.

Note that cutting off weapons is close to an empty threat, given how little the US has to offer. Intelligence is another matter. But can the US deliver even here? Scott Ritter has said that the CIA’s Russia House unit, which is ferociously hostile to Russia, is an uncontrolled operation, with even the formidable “bloody” Gina Haspel failing to bring it to heel when tasked to do so. Admittedly CIA refusniks might not have access to the full panoply of critical signit. But could they conceivably be able to provide enough to allow for targeting?

In addition, the big reason for Trump’s rush, and in particular to secure Zelenksy’s capitulation is to deny Ukraine hawks time to organize to stymie Trump politically. I doubt Zelensky has the cojones to try to arrange a visit with, say, Lindsay Graham. But a call?

Part of the US messaging campaign to win over Ukraine supporters is to depict the scheme as containing solid protections, per the Axios headline: Trump peace plan for Ukraine includes NATO-style security guarantee. Anyone who has been following this and other sites on what Article 5 amounts to knows full well it’s a very weak obligation.

We’ll stop here, even though there is much more we could say. This is an overly-dynamic and some of the uncertainties will start to sort themselves out in pretty short order.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/11 ... tions.html

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Leaked 'Peace Proposal' Carries Hidden Intrigues, as 'Camo-Putin' Signals Defiance
Simplicius
Nov 20, 2025

Major things are afoot in Ukraine.

The likely motivation for the corruption scandal embroiling Zelensky has made itself known. It appears the US is making a play at leaning on Zelensky into making major concessions so Trump can wrap up his ninth war for a much-needed PR boost at a time when MAGA’s whitewashed facade is shearing off like cheap stucco.

Kirill Dmitriev, for example, has revealed that the American FBI has a liaison office in Ukraine’s corruption agency NABU, which allows the US to theoretically pull any strings necessary in pressing Zelensky’s associates in order to strong-arm the Ukrainian leader into conceding.

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Now the plan has come together with the announcement of a secretly-developed, major new peace formula for the ending of the war. The problem is, the details are extremely scattered and incongruous, leading to the perception of the proceedings being more the product of some smoke-filled mafia ‘sit-down’ rather than a professionally transparent political process.

Image

That’s because—as has become de rigueur under Trump’s leadership—the details are filled with hazy ambiguities and contradictions.

The biggest being that the Russian side has expressed there have been no such peace proposals divulged to them; but this too could very well be part of the shadow play: Kirill Dmitriev, in particular, has been used as a kind of unofficial back-channel gopher whose covert message-running operates beneath the mode of officially ‘recorded’ narrative.

The hint came when Witkoff apparently goofed in tweeting what was meant to be a private DM in response to the peace proposal’s leak; Witkoff immediately deleted the message, which had said simply: “He must have got this from K.”—assumed to have designated Kirill Dmitriev:

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Other canny observers have likewise detected a hint of ‘more than meets the eye’ with these oblique stovepipe channels.

Here Will Schryver muses:

I have previously expressed my thoughts on Kirill Dmitriev’s role in these ongoing “negotiations” between Russia and the US. I will repost two of them here:

1.) I believe Dmitriev is playing a purposefully calculated role. The things he says are intended to beguile the fools in Washington and London with dreams of reprising the 1990s era of plunder and pillage.

2.) I do not dispute that Witkoff and Dmitriev are having amiable chats on these questions.

What I DO dispute is that Witkoff and Dmitriev are meaningful actors in this drama.

In my view, BOTH are marginal players — often bordering on the clownish. They are rhetorical tools.


It’s hard to know for certain the nature of the play, and why Putin and Trump both lend their hefty imprimatur to these unofficial ‘messengers’ to confect such proposals on their behalf.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/lea ... ies-hidden

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Kyiv must make a responsible decision on a peaceful settlement right now, otherwise it will be too late.
November 21, 7:02 PM

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The Kremlin on negotiations with Ukraine.

- Kyiv must make a responsible decision on a peaceful settlement right now

, otherwise it will be too late. - The actions of the Russian Armed Forces are forcing Zelenskyy to a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian issue, Peskov said.

- The Kremlin does not know the basis for media reports that the US allegedly expects Kyiv to sign Trump's "peace plan" by November 27.

- Russia is open to peace talks for their success, not for the sake of the process.

- Moscow wants the peace talks on Ukraine to be successful, so it does not want to discuss them in a "megaphone mode". -

The US has certain ideas regarding a Ukrainian settlement, but nothing substantive is being discussed right now.

- A meeting between Putin and Trump is necessary, but a lot of work needs to be done before it. -

Putin will hold a meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council today.

In general, the next conditions will be even worse than those currently proposed.
Every month of delay significantly increases Russia's future territory.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10200469.html

Cocaine Fuhrer's Fork
November 22, 10:56

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The cocaine-fueled führer threw a public tantrum yesterday in an address "to the people," declaring that he was faced with a stark choice: either accept Trump's plan or lose a key ally. A classic dilemma, where both sides are worse. For him personally.

It's worth noting that since 2014, the US and the West have been presenting Russia with a simple choice in Ukraine: either war or capitulation. Avoiding this dilemma proved impossible. Russia chose war and succeeded, despite all the costs involved. Even though every effort was made to persuade it to capitulate. Now it's Ukraine's turn.

Choose, my friend.

Essentially, Ukraine is being offered a significantly weakened version of the 2022 Istanbul Agreements, with significant territorial losses and a number of restrictions on objectives—on the army, NATO, language, the church, and so on.
Moreover, rejection of the offer is being linked to a reduction or cessation of US support.
Judging by the comments, Russia is well aware of these proposals, which are based on the agreements between Trump and Putin in Anchorage.
At the same time, refusing to accept Trump's demands will not pose a major problem for Russia, as it is prepared to continue fighting if Ukraine resists. The dynamics on the front are clearly favorable to Russia.

The US reasonably believes that if Ukraine doesn't make peace now, Russia will seize more territory in the coming months, and the next time negotiations come, the conditions for Ukraine will be much worse, while Russia will have gained far more than the US would be willing to cede. Trump's inner circle, including Europeans, are making this clear. They say that what's being offered is the best Ukraine can hope for now.

Attempts to change the plan's provisions are called "bluffing without a trump card." Hence the November 27 deadline. They say, "Accept it, or it will get worse." Meanwhile, the sword of Damocles hangs over the cocaine führer, the possible release of Mindich's tapes, with his personal involvement. But of course, with the help of Britain and the EU, the cocaine führer will continue to the end, trying to prevaricate and delay a concrete response to Trump. It's clear he doesn't want to sign anything. But he's already being openly coerced.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10201533.html

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Nov 23, 2025 1:17 pm

European allies to the rescue
Published by @nsanzo ⋅ 23/11/2025

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Having temporarily forgotten the corruption scandal that plagued his government and briefly cast doubt on Zelensky's ability to retain his right-hand man, Andriy Ermak, the Ukrainian president is racing against time to avoid having to choose between "dignity and a key ally." According to yesterday's Financial Times , the meeting held in Kyiv with European and Ukrainian representatives, as well as Dan Driscoll, the US Secretary of the Army—tasked with delivering the draft of Trump's plan to Zelensky—was complicated, and one of the newspaper's sources described it as "nauseating." The United States appears to be putting Victoria Nuland's famous " fuck the EU " maxim into practice and is reluctant to overly tailor its proposal to the needs of its continental allies, from whom the plan demands, among other things, $100 billion to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, an economic activity from which, according to the document, the United States would obtain 50% of the profits.

According to the Financial Times , “Driscoll arrived late and peppered his remarks with profanity. ‘We have to put an end to this shit,’ he said. ‘The US Armed Forces love and support Ukraine, but the honest assessment of the US military is that Ukraine is in a very delicate situation and now is the best time for peace,’ Driscoll continued. On that basis, and after announcing that ‘we are not going to negotiate details,’ according to The Guardian, Driscoll informed the NATO ambassadors that ‘no agreement is perfect, but we have to get one as soon as possible,’ he told them, according to a person who was present.” “It was a nightmare of a meeting. It was back to the ‘you have no cards’ argument,” the article insists, quoting an attendee at the meeting. Trumpism has returned to last February to revive the argument that triggered the first major mobilization of European countries to prevent the deterioration of the relationship between the United States and Ukraine.

The current situation is similar to that of April, when Washington threatened to adopt a proposal considered excessively favorable to Russia— Steve Witkoff's final proposal , which quickly became the European and Ukrainian counterproposal after the intervention of Marco Rubio and Keith Kellogg—and in August, when the joint visit to the White House managed to stall the "understanding" reached by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. In all cases, the European tactic was to intervene to highlight Russian violations, insist on the Kremlin's ill intentions, and allow enough time for Donald Trump to change his mind again. Once more, with the help of European countries, even more surprised than Kyiv by the emergence of a peace plan to which Ukraine must respond in less than a week, Zelensky and his team are regrouping to ensure that the 28-point plan developed, according to the White House, by Steve Witkoff and Marco Rubio, becomes just another passing annoyance.

The threat this poses to Zelensky can be gauged by the profile of the delegation chosen to travel to Switzerland to negotiate directly with the United States. The delegation will be headed by Andriy Ermak, guaranteeing Zelensky's voice will be heard, and will include Rustem Umerov, Chairman of the National Security and Defense Council; Kirill Budanov, Director of Military Intelligence; Andriy Hnatov, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces; Oleh Ivaschenko, Head of Foreign Intelligence; Serhiy Kislitsa, Deputy Foreign Minister; Yevhen Ostriainsky, Vice Chairman of the National Security and Defense Council; Oleksandr Pokland, Deputy Director of the SBU; and Oleksandr Bevz, Advisor to the President's Office. This delegation stands in stark contrast to the one sent to Istanbul, where Ukraine instructed its delegates not to negotiate any political issues. The situation is far more dangerous now, as Ukraine must not feign negotiations with its enemy, but rather negotiate with its ally—the country threatening to withdraw real-time intelligence and abandon the system by which European NATO countries acquire US weapons that are subsequently supplied for war. Ukraine is entering these crucial negotiations alongside its European allies, insisting on a just peace.

The European stance is striking for its blatant inability to react and its obsession with clinging to a situation consistent with its propaganda—according to which Russia has lost the war and its collapse is ever closer—rather than with reality. “The way out of the conflict is for Russia to leave Ukraine,” declared former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin on Friday, in her most serious tone. In this enormous tide of emotions, seriousness can quickly give way to the nervous laughter she displayed barely a second later, as she walked away from the microphones, having left behind the pro-Ukrainian image she wished to project to the media. Marin's words complement those spoken hours earlier by the former Estonian Prime Minister and current EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, who downplayed the leak of the 28-point plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. From the simplistic perspective of Brussels, the plan to resolve the war in Ukraine only needs two points: sanctions against Russia and funding for Ukraine. The maxim is reminiscent of the reaction of Antony Blinken, then US Secretary of State, when China presented its peace proposal for Russia and Ukraine, which began with the reaffirmation of “the territorial integrity of all countries” and subsequently detailed a series of points to facilitate negotiations. “The Chinese plan consists of twelve points. If they took the first one, sovereignty, seriously, this war could end tomorrow,” Blinken stated at the time. The willingness of European countries and much of the US political establishment to continue the war until Ukraine could achieve, in a way they have never been able to explain, objectives that, since 2023, have clearly been unrealistic, has created a form of magical thinking that has favored the status quo and dismissed any initiative seeking a resolution other than the dreamed-of one.

The lack of realism isn't unique to the European Union. Last Thursday, JD Vance, the man who provoked Volodymyr Zelensky's outburst at the disastrous Oval Office meeting, wondered why Russia and Ukraine didn't realize that it's better to trade with each other and forget about war. In the minds of those who lead world powers, everything is simple and can be resolved quickly simply by understanding that simplicity. Perhaps that has been one of the reasons why the diplomacy the United States has tried to promote this year has been so clumsy and has lacked the continuity and work ethic required to negotiate with two sides with conflicting demands, propose solutions, find the necessary resources to implement them, and seek support at the national and international levels. Thus, ten months have passed before, after three cycles of negotiation and pause, the Trump administration has put forward a minimally developed proposal for how it wants to resolve the military and political conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Following the surprise publication of the plan and the displeasure with its content, in whose creation they did not participate, European countries, some of whose leaders are in South Africa for the G20 summit, have set to work protecting Ukraine from a peace that would require them all to make concessions they are unwilling to make: relinquishing territories and NATO membership for Kyiv, and readmitting Russia to Western international relations for Brussels. As a preliminary step to the start of negotiations, António Costa, Ursula von der Leyen, and the presidents or prime ministers of Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Poland (as EU members), along with the United Kingdom, Canada, Norway, and Japan, issued a statement yesterday expressing their support for Ukraine and their position on the diplomatic process.

“We welcome the United States’ continued efforts to bring peace to Ukraine. The initial draft of the 28-point plan includes important elements that will be essential for a just and lasting peace,” they state. After this obligatory positive assessment in the opening lines—to avoid offending Donald Trump—these leaders qualify their opinion, adding that “the draft is a foundation that will require further work.” “We are prepared to engage to ensure that future peace is sustainable. We are clear on the principle that borders should not be altered by force. We are also concerned about the proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces, which would leave the country vulnerable to future attacks,” they add, before mentioning that “the implementation of the elements related to the European Union and NATO would require the consent of the EU and NATO members, respectively.” In short, these Western leaders, who are only bothered by border changes imposed by force that do not benefit them, reject the territorial and security issues in the document—aspects that cannot be considered mere details, but rather outright rejections. That is exactly the message Ukraine is seeking from the allies who will accompany it in the most important negotiation, which was never going to be with Russia, but with the country that makes it possible for the Ukrainian army to fight with guarantees and that can prevent it from continuing to do so.

“EU leaders said that four key clauses of the 28-point plan should be changed, naturally so that Russia would reject the plan and the war would continue. But they haven’t said how they are going to finance Ukraine’s war effort on their own, without the United States. This is all theater,” wrote Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin, a staunch advocate of peace, however imperfect, to describe the attitude of European countries, offended by any foreign diplomatic initiative, but incapable of presenting one of their own. As the American academic Samuel Charap, who has always championed the 2022 Istanbul negotiations as the basis for a direct agreement between Russia and Ukraine, wrote yesterday, “the complaints from some across the pond about the 28 points—regardless of one’s opinion of them—are not hard to swallow. They completely abandoned the diplomatic ground months ago and, therefore, inevitably find themselves chasing after those who still maintain the commitment. Where has the European diplomatic initiative gone? One cannot expect to influence the outcome by remaining on the sidelines.” However, European leaders, following the example of what they have achieved throughout the year, are confident of decisively influencing the negotiations. The United Kingdom, along with France and Germany—the two countries that shielded Petro Poroshenko from defeat by negotiating the Minsk agreements—will accompany Zelensky’s team in Geneva with that objective in mind.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/11/23/los-a ... l-rescate/

Google Translator

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FRom cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Any European "ceasefire plans" or "adjustments to Trump's 28 points" are not worth serious discussion, as they are aimed solely at introducing clauses unacceptable to Russia, thereby creating a situation in which the "ceasefire plan" and "European adjustments" will inevitably be rejected by Russia. The globalists are trying their best to wriggle out of this by stalling for time and introducing unacceptable amendments.

It appears that the main provisions of the deal between Russia and the US were agreed upon back in the spring and summer, and the final version was already finalized and a deal was struck in Anchorage. At the same time, the US has committed to imposing this agreement on Ukraine and the EU. This is precisely the US commitment, without which the deal will not work. If the US is unwilling or unable to fulfill its obligations, the war will continue. If the US pushes through the agreed-upon clauses, the war will end, more or less, on the terms agreed upon.

Moscow will naturally, at the official level, pretend it's not involved and that these points are the creation of the US itself, so as not to give Trump's opponents any additional ammunition to claim that Trump's 28 points could actually be Putin's 28 points. The diplomatic situation surrounding the Ukraine negotiations clearly demonstrates that there is an external, public level of negotiations, and then there are behind-the-scenes agreements, the details of which the US and Russia are in no hurry to disclose because they know full well how many people want to torpedo them.

The Mindch tapes, coupled with the Russian Armed Forces' offensive under the deal, serve as instruments of pressure to force the cocaine-fuehrer's gang and the European globalists to sign an agreement they call "betrayal" and "capitulation." Hence the gathering in Switzerland, where the US will try to secure what it wants in order to fulfill its part of the bargain. Meanwhile, the globalists will try to sabotage these US efforts. So, a major turning point lies ahead, when it becomes clear whether the US will fulfill its part of the bargain or not.

***

Colonelcassad
A cunning European plan to counter Trump's proposal

: Kyiv's armed forces will not be restricted.

Ukraine will regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the Kakhovka Dam, as well as gain "unimpeded passage" along the Dnieper River and control over the Kinburn Spit.

Other territorial disputes will be resolved after the ceasefire, the proposal states (meaning Ukraine does not withdraw its troops from Donbas for the sake of a ceasefire).

***

Colonelcassad
Boris Johnson (Johnsonuk) is outraged by Trump's peace plan.😀

"The so-called peace plan calls for the military castration of Ukraine. It demands a Russian veto on Ukraine's NATO membership and Russian control over the entry of any foreign troops onto Ukrainian soil. This is a complete capitulation by Ukraine's so-called friends. Ukrainians have been given an ultimatum to begin negotiations under these shameful conditions. Where are their allies? Their friends?"

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – November 21st, 2025

Summary by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Nov 21, 2025

From the Russian MOD report: "Units of the 'West' Group, as a result of active operations, liberated the settlements of Novoselovka, Stavki, Maslyakovka, Yampol in the Donetsk People's Republic, and Petropavlovka in the Kharkov Oblast."

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ЛБС 20.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 20th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

Russian Minister of Defense Andrey Belousov congratulated the command and personnel of the units and subunits on the liberation of the settlements:

121st Motorized Rifle Regiment on the liberation of the settlement of Petropavlovka in the Kharkov region.

[https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_ ... 2x882.jpeg[/img]

169th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade on the liberation of the settlement of Yampol in the Donetsk People's Republic.

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252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment on the liberation of the settlement of Novoselovka in the DPR.

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254th Motorized Rifle Regiment named after Alexander Matrosov on the liberation of the settlement of Stavki in the DPR.

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After the liberation of the city of Kupyansk, the liberation of the village of Petropavlovka (49°43′16″ N, 37°43′13″ E, about 2,490 residents) was announced.

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ЛБС 20.6.2025=June 20th, 2025. Участки Активности=Area of Activity.

The village stretches for 11 km. To the west, across the Hnylytsia River, lies the settlement of Kucherovka.

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The area for clearing is complex: well-developed road and railway networks, forested terrain, small rivers, and a peat bog on the eastern outskirts of Kucherovka.

The RF are advancing on a broad front in the Izium direction. The line Novoselovka - Stavki - Maslyakovka - Yampol stretches over 26 kilometers.

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The settlement of Novoselovka (49°04′13″ N, 37°41′29″ E, about 340 residents) is a large settlement on the Nitrius River (the label for this river is obscured by Srednee; it runs from Shandrigolovo through Srednee to the north) with crossings over the river and reservoir.

A major Ukrainian Armed Forces defense node Shandrigolovo - Novoselovka - Drobyshevo - Stavki, which threatened the left flank of the Russian group cutting off the southern base of the AFU's Borovaya protrusion towards Rubtsy, has been practically destroyed.

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In the settlement of Stavki (49°02′47″ N, 37°49′44″ E, about 65 residents), the enemy had established positions controlling the intersection of roads from west to east and south to north, which supported the Ukrainian Armed Forces group in the Liman sector. After its liberation, the Russian Armed Forces opened the road to the Drobyshevo area.

The city of Liman is practically encircled in the northwest. And after the liberation of Drobyshevo, Ukrainian Armed Forces units defending the city may find themselves operationally encircled.

In the southeast of Liman, Russian assault groups liberated the Maslyakovka farmstead (48°58'16"N 37°51'1"E). It is now the 'Vostochny' microdistrict of the city of Liman.

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The Russian Armed Forces have entered the city. Ahead are urban battles, clearing, and liberation of the city of Krasny Liman.

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The MOD reports: "Over the past week, units of the 'East' Group continued advancing deep into the enemy's defense and completed the liberation of the settlements of Gai, Nechaevka, and Radostnoe in the Dnepropetrovsk Oblast, as well as Yablokovo, Ravnopole, and Veseloe in the Zaporozhye Oblast."

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6ЛБС 28.10.2025=Line of Combat Contact October 28th, 2025. АКТИВНОСТЬ=Activity.
On November 18, units of the Russian 'East' Group reached the right bank of the Gaichur River, liberated the settlement of Nechaevka, and began moving along the P-85 road, following the river from north to south, along the line of the Ukrainian defense.

On November 21, the settlement of Radostnoe (47°50′18″ N, 36°12′02″ E, about 160 residents), located on the border of Ukraine's Dnepropetrovsk Oblast and Russia's Zaporozhye Oblast, was liberated. Over two days, they advanced 1.5 km with fighting.

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South of Radostnoe lies the settlement of Novoe Zaporozhye. Further south, 5.5 km away, is a major Ukrainian Armed Forces defense area, Dobropole, controlling the Razdolnenskaya, Glinyannaya, Srednyaya, and Tselinnaya ravines. It stretches along the P-85 highway for 7.5 km and transitions into the settlement of Varvarovka.

Control of Dobropole will allow our units on the Sladkoe - Ravnopole line to connect with the group advancing along the Gaichur River and to block the city of Gulyaipole from the north.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ember-21st

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Alexander Mercouris: WILL RUSSIA LOSE THE PEACE?
November 18, 2025
By Alexander Mercouris, Substack, 11/12/25

Recent Russian breakthroughs on the Ukrainian battlefronts, and in particular the encirclement of large numbers of Ukrainian troops in the towns of Kupiansk and Pokrovsk, have now brought the full Russian conquest and liberation of Donbas into sight, bringing closer the end of the war.

Whilst there continues to be speculation about a possible eventual diplomatic outcome, the disastrous failure of the Trump administration’s outreach to Moscow, and the implacable opposition of the Europeans and the Zelensky government to any diplomatic outcome, makes that outcome now extremely unlikely.

In the event that there is no negotiated settlement few now doubt that the result will be a Russian military victory. Apparently this possibility was for the first time conceded in a debate in the British House of Lords, which is a part of the British Parliament.

This outcome may be much closer than is widely realised.

Since the summer of 2022, after Ukraine walked back its initial apparent agreement to the Istanbul settlement, the war has dragged on, becoming a story of sieges and incremental advances over a limited territory. Many people assume that movement on the battlefields will continue slow. US President Trump is said to have thrown away maps of the battlefields Zelensky tried to show to him saying that he was ‘sick of looking’ at maps of the same places.

In reality, the story of the last 2 years, since the defeat of Ukraine’s 2023 summer counteroffensive, is of Russia achieving increasing battlefield dominance, both on the ground and in the air.

On the ground the Russians have now reached Ukraine’s last big fortified line in Donbas and appear about to break through, with the key city of Pokrovsk about to fall.

In the air the Russians have asserted overwhelming dominance, both above the front lines and in Ukraine’s rear, with the latest Russian combined missile and drone strike plunging most of Ukraine into darkness.

By contrast reports from Ukraine speak of an army desperately short of men and equipment, unable to take offensive action, and crippled by heavy losses and mass desertions.

Ukraine’s budget is out of control, with money flows from the West the only thing standing between Ukraine and bankruptcy, and possible hyperinflation. Whilst it is difficult to come across reliable figures, all the indications are that real economic activity is in sharp decline.

Recently in The London Times Roger Boyes, the newspaper’s veteran foreign affairs commentator, who is known to be very well connected in London, doubted that Ukraine could hold out beyond Spring. He may be right.

This reality has inevitably restarted the long debate about what a Russian victory might look like and whether the Russians could win the war but might lose the peace. Articles discussing this topic and raising this possibility have recently appeared by Yves Smith in Naked Capitalism and by English Outsider in Moon of Alabama. Other commentators who think the same thing include to my knowledge Professor John Mearsheimer and the Substack writer known as Aurelien.

I would summarise this view as follows:

Ukraine is a society deeply divided on geographical lines with the Ukrainian speaking west of Ukraine, in contrast to the predominantly Russian speaking east of Ukraine, strongly nationalistic and fiercely hostile to Russia. Occupation of western Ukraine would therefore place the Russians in control of a population bitterly hostile to themselves, and risking a likely insurgency. The US and NATO will refuse to recognise, and will continue to be, implacably hostile to Russian and to any Russian occupation of any part of Ukraine, whether in the east or west, including Crimea.

The Russians in the event of victory would therefore find themselves facing a trap, with no easy answers.

If they were to hold back from occupying Ukrainian speaking western Ukraine, this territory would quickly fall under the control of a nationalist government hostile to Russia, and would align itself with the West. In time it would probably join NATO and and would agree to host NATO troops on its territory. Very probably these would deploy long range missiles, which would have Moscow within their reach. Given that these missiles are likely in time to be hypersonic, this would drastically reduce reaction times.

In that case Russia would have fought a long and difficult war only to find that all it had achieved was to hold NATO back by a few hundred kilometres but still leaving itself in a dangerous strategic position, with NATO significantly closer to Moscow and positioned on the territory of a permanently hostile neighbour which, with NATO’s backing, would almost certainly refuse to recognise Russia’s territorial acquisitions in eastern Ukraine, and therefore Russia’s new western borders.

If the the Russians, in order to prevent this eventuality, were to occupy nationalist Ukrainian speaking western Ukraine, they would however risk the insurgency I mentioned earlier, with the high probability that NATO would support it.

In that case the insurgency would drain Russian resources, damage Russia’s reputation, and in time create divisions within Russian society, potentially leading to defeat and eventual destabilisation.

This is a well founded view. I believe it was one which the Russians were vividly alive to before and at the start of the war. It explains the repeated efforts they made to negotiate a compromise, including the 2014 and 2015 Minsk Agreements, the abortive Istanbul Agreement of 2022, the June 2024 proposals (which on The Duran we refer to as ‘Istanbul Plus’), and the compromise Putin was ready to agree with Trump in Alaska, which could be called a modified Istanbul Plus.

It was also this thinking which lay behind the two draft Treaties the Russians proposed to the United States and to NATO just before the start of the war, in December 2021.

My sense is that events in the war are however causing a shift in the Russian thinking and that the Russians no longer fear this outcome to the extent that they once did.

I believe I am not the only person who has detected a significant hardening of the Russian view since Alaska. Perhaps I am wrong, but I sense that for the first time the option of occupying and ultimately absorbing the whole of Ukraine into Russia is being seriously considered and is no longer as inconceivable as it once was. Medvedev scarcely conceals the fact that for him this is the desired outcome. Recently, at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in June, Putin even said that “Ukraine is ours”.

Briefly, I think that commentators who write of Russia ‘losing the peace’ and facing an intractable challenge in western Ukraine may be underestimating the extent to which the war has itself reshaped attitudes both in Ukraine and Russia, and may be altering the political geography. Pre-2022 western Ukraine, and even more pre-2014 western Ukraine, was every bit as implacably hostile to Russia as these commentators say. However I suspect the war is reshaping attitudes even there.

The war, which has lasted almost four years, and which is set to continue, at least for a time, has devastated Ukraine.

Thousands have died, including disproportionately large numbers of western Ukrainian nationalists who flocked to join the army in 2022. Of those who joined up in 2022, and who have survived, many by now will be wounded or at least deeply traumatised. Millions of others have fled. When Alex Christoforou and I visited Hungary last year a Hungarian diplomat who has travelled around Ukraine told us of the extent to which Ukraine’s countryside has been emptied of people and of the disturbing effect that causes. I wonder whether the critical mass of people to support an insurgency any longer exists.

As the Russian army advances west many of those with nationalist and anti Russian views who still remain, including in Kiev, will probably flee to Europe rather than remain. Whilst this is deplorable, should it happen it will reduce the pool of people who might support an insurgency still further.

Insurgencies historically have relied heavily on the support and involvement of young people. Even before the war Ukraine’s number of young people was critically small. Many have now fled and show little interest in returning. Those who remain overwhelmingly oppose service in the army and participation in the war, which is why even Zelensky has opposed reducing the conscription age despite intense pressure to do so by Western governments. This is argues against a youthful population brimming with patriotic fervour and anti-Russian nationalism ready to rise up in an insurgency against the Russian occupier.

Beyond these intractable demographic facts there is the fundamental question of whether, in the event of defeat, there would be any strong desire on the part of any part of the remaining population of Ukraine to continue or resume the war by way of an insurgency or otherwise.

It is an iron law of insurgency that it can only continue and succeed if it has the support of a critical mass of the population. As Mao Zedong wrote in chapter 6 of his classic On Guerrilla Warfare, “guerrillas must live amongst the people as fish in the sea”. In the absence of such support an insurgency will fail, and may even find it impossible to get started.

I don’t know that there has been any study of the subject, but my sense is that following long and bitter wars, which have resulted in the sort of huge losses and devastation that has happened in Ukraine, the mood of the population of the defeated side tends to be at the end of the war one of exhaustion and demoralisation, rather than defiance. The overwhelming desire is for a return to stability and normality, which in effect means peace. Examples include the Confederacy, which broke away from the United States in the 1860s, more recently Germany and Japan after the Second World War, and in the modern Russian context, Chechnya.

In every one of these cases expectations of continued post-war resistance, widely predicted in all of these cases, with actual attempts to organise it in some of these cases, went unfulfilled. This despite the passionate commitment the population made in all of these cases to the war whilst it was underway. On the contrary, in each one of these cases, attempts to organise resistance after the war failed precisely because they were strongly opposed by the population, who saw resistance – seen correctly as an attempt to refight a war which had already been lost – as unacceptable because endangering the peace.

The key pre-conditions for preventing an insurgency seem to me to be (1) that the defeat must be so overwhelming and so total that there seems to be no realistic way of reversing it; and (2) moderation and restraint on the part of the victor.

In the conflict in Ukraine we are now close to seeing (1), whilst Putin’s entire approach all but guarantees (2).

A number of further points can be made:

Firstly, in the case of Ukraine, the level of support for the war on the part of the population has anyway always been uneven, falling well short of the overwhelming support which existed in the Confederacy, Germany and Japan. The Russian speaking part of the population has never been fully committed to the war. My impression is that outside the admittedly large section of the population which passionately supported the 2014 Maidan coup, which however has never been a majority, support for the war has been thin. The explosive increase in desertion rates and the hostility shown to army recruiters speak for themselves.

Ukraine since it gained independence in 1991 has never been a state which could be considered a success. For some of its people its history of political conflict, violence, corruptions ethnic nationalism and economic failure, must make it, when it is all over, a nightmare they will want never to go back to. The baroque behaviour of Zelensky and his associates will probably reinforce this view. This may not be true of everyone but I would not be surprised if a substantial constituency appears in postwar Ukraine strongly opposed to Ukrainian nationalism and its manifestations.

I have heard that in Ukraine over the last two years, despite fierce attempts by the Ukrainian authorities to suppress use of Russian, everyday use of Russian has strongly reasserted itself. Supposedly Russian is once again the most common language young people use with each other. I saw a recent complaint from a Ukrainian education official who complained that Russian has again become the language schoolchildren in Kiev speak in with each other. Supposedly Russian is once more the language overwhelmingly used in the workplace and on the factory floor, and I have heard that its use is becoming more prevalent even in the army. I have no statistics to confirm any of this, all information I have about this is purely anecdotal, but for the record I believe it to be true. If so it is further reason to doubt that Ukraine’s population after the war would want to engage in further prolonged resistance on behalf of a defeated nation whose language they have turned their backs on.

Lastly, any resistance within a defeated postwar Ukraine would have to look to the United States and NATO for support. However the primary lesson many – probably most – Ukrainians will have taken from the war is that the United States and NATO cannot be relied upon. After all their support was insufficient to defeat Russia whilst Ukraine had an army and existed as a state. Why would any Ukrainian believe that US and NATO would make possible the defeat of Russia when they are gone? Would the totality of Ukraine’s disaster – caused precisely by Ukraine being led by NATO down what Professor Mearsheimer has called the ‘primrose path’ – not in fact cause most Ukrainians to be deeply suspicious of any future ‘offers’ of ‘help’ from the West?

All of this of course assumes some kind of Russian presence in ‘right bank’ Ukraine, ie of Ukraine west of the Dnieper, and perhaps ultimately the occupation or even absorption by Russia of the whole country. Officially that is still not Russian policy and perhaps it never will be. However it does seem to me that steps to prolong the war, thereby making Ukraine’s defeat even more total, now run the very real risk of bringing precisely that outcome about.

If so, then any Western plans that depend on inciting an insurgency to bog down and weaken Russia in Ukraine may be ill-conceived and based on a whole set of wrong assumptions. As Putin never tires to point out, Russia and Ukraine have a long shared history and the commonalities between them as eastern Slav nations are profound. It is far from impossible that a reabsorption of Ukraine, including its western regions, even including Lviv, back into Russia might be long lasting and successful. If so then any Western plans to lure Russia westwards in order to bog it down or weaken it might end up producing the opposite result. They might instead lead to the permanent enlargement of Russia and the disappearance of Ukraine.

Since I presume this is not an outcome the West wants, by far its better course is to negotiate a compromise whilst there is still a Ukraine left. That does not however seem to be a course the West is inclined to follow.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/11/ale ... the-peace/

Text of US 28-point Russia-Ukraine war peace plan released; Response of Zelensky & Putin; Analyses
November 21, 2025
By Ben Aris, Intellinews, 11/21/25

The full text of the US-Russian 28-point peace plan was released on November 20 that the White House hopes will bring the war in Ukraine to an end.

The proposal was leaked earlier this year and thrashed out in talks between Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Russia’s special envoy and sovereign fund manager head Kirill Dmitriev in secret and without the participation of either Ukraine or the EU.

Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) has yet to comment on the plan, but it is widely expected that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will reject it.

The list contains most of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s maximalist demands and few concessions to Ukraine. It also includes a demand that Ukraine in effect cede some 20% of its territory to Russia and reduce its military by half – both red lines for Bankova. Reportedly he has been working on an alternative plan together with his European partners, who have taken over the entire burden of supporting Ukraine since Trump pulled out.

The EU has also pushed back against the plan. In comments to journalists on November 20, EU foreign policy chief and former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said the EU had a much simpler 2-point plan: weaken Russia and support Ukraine.

Land: The controversial plan concedes the Donbas territories that Russia does not already occupy, which will become demilitarized zones, but freezes the frontline in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. The Crimea will also be ceded to Russia and all these territorial claims will be recognized by the US, but Ukraine is implicitly not required to recognize the claim. Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP), the largest in Europe, will be returned to Ukraine, but half its power will be sold to Russia.

Sanctions: Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy with a phased sanctions relief. It will also be invited to join the G8.

Nato and security guarantees: Ukraine will alter its constitution and return to neutrality that was part of its basic law prior to 2014. Nato’s charter will be changed to preclude Ukraine’s membership and expansion will be halted. Instead, Ukraine will be offered security guarantees by the US, which will demand compensation for its services. In effect, the deal would be a step towards the pan-European post-Cold War security deal that Russia first proposed in 2008. The US also commits to renewing the Cold War-era missile agreements, long a top ask by the Kremlin, starting with the renewal of the START II missile agreement, which is due to expire in February.

Reconstruction: Ukraine’s EU accession will be fast-tracked. The European part of the frozen Central Bank of Russia (CBR) funds will be returned and the rest will be invested in a joint US-Russian fund. A $100bn US investment fund will be set up to pay for reconstruction with the US taking half of its returns. Europe will also raise a $100bn fund to help with reconstruction. The Trump administration specifically includes mineral deals that are part of his minerals diplomacy foreign policy. The US will engage in extensive, but undetailed, business deals with Russia covering minerals, energy and technology.

Culture: Russian will become a second official language and restrictions on language and the operations of the Russian Orthodox Church will be lifted.

Politics: all sides will receive a full amnesty for any war crimes committed. Fresh presidential elections will be held within 100 days (with the implication that Zelenskiy will be replaced with someone like General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a preferred US candidate to take over.)

Text of the 28-point peace plan

1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.

2. A full and comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered resolved.

3. Russia will not invade neighbouring countries, and Nato will not expand further.

4. A US-mediated dialogue will be held between Russia and Nato to resolve security issues, create conditions for de-escalation, ensure global security, and improve opportunities for cooperation and future economic growth.

5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.

6. The size of Ukraine’s Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel [down from about 1mn currently].

7. Ukraine will enshrine in its Constitution that it will not join Nato, and Nato will adopt a provision stating that Ukraine will not be admitted at any time in the future.

8. Nato will not deploy its troops in Ukraine.

9. European Nato forces will be stationed in Poland.

10. US security guarantees:

a. The US will receive compensation for providing guarantees.

b. If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantees.

c. If Russia invades Ukraine (except for a rapid coordinated military response), all global sanctions will be restored and recognition of new territories will be revoked.

d. If Ukraine unintentionally fires a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg, the guarantees become invalid.

11. Ukraine may apply for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market pending review.

12. A global reconstruction package for Ukraine will include:

a. A fund for investing in high-tech sectors (transport, logistics, data centres, AI).

b. US–Ukraine cooperation on restoring and operating gas infrastructure (pipelines, storage).

c. Joint efforts to rebuild war-affected territories, cities, and residential areas.

d. Infrastructure development.

e. Extraction of minerals and natural resources.

f. A World Bank financing package to accelerate reconstruction.

13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:

a. Sanctions relief will be discussed and agreed individually and gradually.

b. The US will sign a long-term economic cooperation agreement with Russia covering energy, resources, infrastructure, AI, data centres, Arctic rare-earth mining, and other corporate opportunities.

c. Russia will be invited to return to the G8.

14. Frozen Russian assets:

a. $100bn will be invested in US-led reconstruction projects in Ukraine.

b. The US will receive 50% of profits from these projects.

c. Europe will add another $100bn for Ukraine’s reconstruction.

d. European frozen assets will be unfrozen.

e. Remaining Russian assets will be invested in a special US–Russia investment instrument for joint projects aimed at strengthening mutual interests and long-term stability.

15. A joint US–Ukraine–Russia working group on security issues will be established to monitor compliance with the agreement.

16. Russia will legally adopt a policy of non-aggression toward Europe and Ukraine.

17. The US and Russia will extend nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear arms control treaties, including START-1.

18. Ukraine will remain a non-nuclear state under the NPT.

19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be restarted under IAEA supervision, with electricity output divided equally (50/50) between Russia and Ukraine.

20. Both countries will implement educational programs fostering cultural tolerance, understanding, and the elimination of racism and prejudice:

a. Ukraine will adopt EU standards on religious tolerance and minority protection.

b. Both sides will lift discriminatory measures and guarantee equal access for Ukrainian and Russian media and education.

c. Nazi ideology and activity will be banned in both countries.

21. Territorial arrangements:

a. Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk will be recognized de facto as Russian, including by the United States.

b. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along current front lines.

c. Russia renounces claims to any other territories it controls beyond these five regions.

d. Ukrainian troops will withdraw from the part of Donetsk region they currently control; this zone becomes a demilitarized neutral buffer internationally recognized as Russian Federation territory. Russian forces will not enter the demilitarized zone.

22. Future territorial arrangements cannot be changed by force; security guarantees will not apply if violated.

23. Russia will not obstruct Ukraine’s commercial use of the Dnipro River, and agreements will be reached on free grain shipments via the Black Sea.

24. A humanitarian committee will resolve outstanding issues:

a. Prisoners and bodies exchanged under “all for all.”

b. All civilian detainees and hostages returned, including children.

c. Family reunification program.

d. Measures to alleviate suffering of conflict victims.

25. Ukraine will hold elections within 100 days.

26. All parties to the conflict will receive full amnesty for wartime actions and agree not to file claims or pursue grievances.

27. The agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Peace Council chaired by Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will apply to violators.

28. After all sides agree, the ceasefire will take effect immediately once both sides withdraw to the agreed starting lines.

(More at link.)

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/11/tex ... -analyses/

******

Kellogg Fired Over Leaking 28-Point Plan – Proposal Designed To Trap Putin

It seems that Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, got fired over leaking news of the 28-point ‘peace plan’. Let’s follow the traces.

On Tuesday the 18th November someone ‘leaked’ to Axios reporter Barak Ravid who then wrote the first story of Trump’s new plan for Ukraine.

Scoop: U.S. secretly drafting new plan to end Ukraine war

The plan’s 28 points fall into four general buckets, sources tell Axios: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future U.S. relations with Russia and Ukraine.

Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is leading the drafting of the plan and has discussed it extensively with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, a U.S. official said.


Shortly thereafter Steve Witkoff made a mistake on Twitter when he sent a response meant for a private direct message to the public side of his account. He soon deleted it but someone had already taken a screenshot.

Image

On Thursday, the 20th of November, the New York Post mentioned it:

Senior US officials confirm details of 28-point plan to end Ukraine war

The [Marco Rubio] comment came after Axios on Tuesday reported a deal had been reached, citing Putin henchman Kirill Dmitriev, who claimed he worked on the plan with Witkoff.

Senior US officials believe Dmitriev leaked the plan to Axios as a way to put their “their POV out there first [because] it seemed like they were winning,” one of the officials said. “This is just a tit for tat. Always has been.”

Witkoff appeared to have surmised the same in a quickly deleted post to X in response to the article Tuesday night.

“He must have got this from K,” Witkoff wrote of the Axios author, Barak Ravid — apparently meaning to send it as a DM referring to Dmitriev by his first initial.


I seriously doubt that the “K” Witkoff mentions was Kirill Dmitriev. Dimitriev is not a Washington insider. He is unlikely to leak anything to an Israeli mouthpiece at Axios.

Another “K”, intimately involve in all things Kiev is General Keith Kellogg. When the leak happened he still was Trump’s special envoy to Kiev and will have had knowledge of the plan.

A day later after the leak to Axios Kellogg got fired. As Reuters reported on Wednesday:

Exclusive: Trump’s Ukraine envoy Kellogg to leave post in January, sources say

WASHINGTON, Nov 19 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has told associates he plans to leave the administration in January, four sources told Reuters, a departure that would mean the loss of a key advocate for Ukraine in the Trump administration.

Special presidential envoy is a temporary designation, and such envoys in theory must be confirmed by the Senate to stay in their positions past 360 days. Kellogg has indicated that January would be a natural departure point, given existing legislation, said the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations.

His departure will be unwelcome news in Kyiv. The retired lieutenant general was widely viewed by European diplomats, Ukrainians included, as a sympathetic ear in an administration that has at times leaned toward Moscow’s view on the origins of the war in Ukraine.


I doubt that the sources claim to Reuters that Kellogg is leading because of a January deadline. That would be an official reasoning. But The Hill reported on Friday that the White House is dumb on this:

Trump special envoy for Ukraine to leave post

President Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, will depart his position in January, the White House confirmed to The Hill on Thursday, as the president has renewed efforts to end Russia’s war against Kyiv.

The White House did not provide any other details about the reasons for the departure of Kellogg, whose role and influence in the Trump administration elicited mixed reactions.

He was originally appointed in January as special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, and had earlier advocated conditioning U.S. military aid on Kyiv agreeing to participate in peace talks. Kellogg’s profile was downsized to only focusing on Ukraine when Trump brought in Witkoff to serve as a special envoy to Russia.

In his position, Kellogg was viewed as an advocate for Kyiv in an administration that more closely hewed to the Kremlin’s negotiating position.


Anonymous sources to Reuters, and The Hill, say that Kellogg was leaving because time was running out before he would needed Congress confirmation. The point in time for that would be in January.

But if that is so why wouldn’t the White House confirm it?

And if January is the end-date, why was Kellogg’s replacement already named on Friday?

As the Guardian wrote yesterday:

Zelenskyy says Ukraine has impossible choice as Trump pushes plan to end war

A delegation of senior US military officials led by the army secretary, Dan Driscoll, held talks with Zelenskyy on Thursday in Kyiv. Trump has named Driscoll – Vance’s friend and former classmate – as his newest “special representative”. The group of American generals was likely to fly to Moscow at the end of next week to discuss the “peace plan” with the Kremlin, US sources said.


To summarize:

The 28-point plan leak to Axios happened on Tuesday.
Witkoff texting immediately that “K” was the leaker.
On Wednesday Reuters reports that Kellogg is leaving in January.
On Thursday The Hill reports that the White House ‘gave no detail’ about his leaving.
‘Senior US officials’ obfuscate the issue in the NY Post by claiming that Witkoff’s “K” meant Kirill Dmitriov.
On Friday The Guardian says that Kellogg’s job and title have already been handed over to someone else.
I will bet a 100 in any currency that it was Kellogg who had leaked the plan. Witkoff complained about it to Trump (or Vance). Kellogg got fired with immediate effect. His replacement is already in. Anonymous claims that Kellogg is leaving for other reasons are obfuscations (by Kellogg himself?) and wrong.

Yesterday Dan Driscol, Kellogg’s replacement, was already briefing European ambassadors in Kiev:

The US army secretary Dan Driscoll briefed ambassadors from Nato nations at a meeting in Kyiv late on Friday, after talks with Zelenskyy and taking a phone call from the White House. “No deal is perfect, but it must be done sooner rather than later,” he told them, according to one person who was present.

The mood in the room was sombre, with several European ambassadors questioning the content of the deal and the way in which the US had conducted the negotiations with Russia without keeping allies informed.

“It was a nightmare meeting. It was the ‘you have no cards’ argument again,” said the source, referring to Trump’s claim that Zelenskyy had no cards to play, during a contentious White House meeting back in February.


Alastair Crooke, who has personal experience in hardcore diplomacy, thinks that the 28-point plan is part of an escalation to press Russia into making concessions:

This set of proposals is not likely to be accepted by the Europeans, Russia or even Zelensky. Their purpose is to dictate a completely new start-point to any negotiation. Any Russian concessions stipulated in the text will be ‘pocketed’ by the US, whilst the rug will be pulled on Russia’s ‘stated principles’. The pressures on Russia will escalate.

In fact, escalation has already begun. Coinciding with publication of the proposals, four long-range US-supplied and targeted ATACMS were fired deep into Russian pre-2014 territory at Voronezh, which is where Russia’s over-the-horizon strategic radars are situated. All were shot down, and Russian Iksander missiles immediately destroyed the launch platforms and killed the 10 launch operators.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has threatened yet more sanctions for Russia, and Trump has indicated that he is ok with Senator Lindsay Graham’s 500% sanctions proposal for those trading with Russia – provided that he, Trump, has complete discretion over the new sanctions package.

The overall aim to these proposals clearly is to corner Putin, and push him off his fundamental principles — such as his insistence on eliminating the root causes to the conflict, and not just the symptoms. There is no hint in this paper of any recognition of root causes [expansion of NATO and missile emplacements] beyond the vague promise of a “dialogue [that] will be conducted between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation, thereby ensuring global security and increasing opportunities for cooperation and future economic development”.

Blah, blah, blah.

It seems that escalation is ahead. Russia will need to consider how to militarily deter the US effectively, yet without starting up the steps of the escalatory ladder to WW3 …

Posted by b on November 22, 2025 at 16:16 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/11/k ... putin.html
*****

Statistics of official exchanges of dead since the beginning of the Second World War
November 22, 7:02 PM

Image

All official exchanges of the dead since the start of the Second World War.

Russia transferred 20,362 to Ukraine,
Ukraine transferred 3,269 to Russia.

Count : https://t.me/lost_armour

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10202596.html

Google Translator

(To be continued today)
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14788
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Nov 23, 2025 6:29 pm

(Continued fron previous post this morning:)

Blowing
November 23, 3:17 PM

Image

The enemy complains that Russia is using clever tactics to minimize the damage from drone strikes on oil refineries.

Russian oil refineries have begun actively using so-called "purging" before attacks.

If Ukrainian drones are detected en route to an oil refinery, a flare line, or more simply, a flare, is activated.
This flare burns gas from the technical racks and installations at the refinery to prevent a large-scale fire and extensive destruction in the event of a drone strike.
Of course, this doesn't prevent damage to the installations from being hit, but it does minimize it considerably.
Therefore, if you see a photo or video of a fiery glow, it's not necessarily a drone strike; most likely, the refinery is simply flaring gas

. This is in addition to the work of mobile fire teams, nets, protective structures, and electronic warfare systems. Reducing the effectiveness of enemy attacks is only achieved through comprehensive measures.

P.S. The photo shows a fire at the Syzran oil refinery after a drone strike this summer.

P.S. 2. As it became known yesterday, someone's idea to fire Flamingo missiles at an oil refinery deep inside Russian territory didn't work out. Part of the money was effectively stolen, the assembled missiles are easily shot down by our air defenses, have mediocre performance characteristics, and, as the icing on the cake, the main manufacturer of the Flamingo turned out to be a Russian citizen.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10203947.html

Ukraine has run out of coke.
November 23, 1:12 PM

Image

Ukraine is left without coke. The last mine, Pokrovskaya, near Krasnoarmeysk, is already partially under Russian control. It ceased operations several months ago.

Image

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They will compensate with Colombian goods.

Earlier, Ukraine was deprived of Europe's largest salt production facility in Soledar.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10203874.html

They wanted to destroy Russia, but they failed.
November 23, 8:35

Image

They wanted to destroy Russia, but they failed.

By 2022, it was already obvious that this neoconservative globalist project to destroy Russia was about to fail. It was obvious.
What happened? The neocons, the globalists, especially the European wing and Biden, wanted to destroy Russia. They staked everything they had: their reputation, their political future—everything—on destroying Russia.

They wanted to destroy Russia on the battlefield, they wanted to destroy the Russian economy. And their hope, their dream, was to literally disintegrate Russia into 15, 16, 17 small republics, and then carry out a color revolution and install a puppet—like the late Navalny—as the new ruler of Russia. That was their dream. That's what they were banking on.

Let me remind you, this war was supposed to end in March 2022 in Istanbul, Turkey. At the time, there was a draft peace agreement. But it was Boris Johnson—the leading neocon, the leading globalist, backed by Macron and Biden—who flew to Kyiv to talk to Zelenskyy and convince him: "Don't sign the peace. We'll give you billions and billions of dollars, endless amounts of money and weapons, so you can defeat Russia."

Essentially, they wanted to use Ukrainians as cannon fodder,
as a meat grinder to destroy Russia. And foolish Zelenskyy said: "Yes, fine. Let's do it." But they failed. (c) former CIA officer Ron Aledo.


Yes, the bet was precisely on a quick defeat of Russia. Through economic shock, then internal protests, then sanctions, and finally, by inflicting a direct military defeat on Russia. All these plans gradually collapsed in 2022-2023. After that, they switched to a strategy of protracting the war, counting on Russia over the long term to overwhelm itself. But here, too, they are now failing. The Americans understand this clearly, and that is why they are trying to secure the result before the West’s defeat becomes more global.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10203368.html

The USSR flag in the center of Krasnoarmeysk. November 23, 2025.
November 23, 7:04 PM

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Russian troops have liberated the central part of Krasnoarmeysk, which has been cleared of the enemy.

A supporting video https://t.me/boris_rozhin/188104 was filmed on the grounds of a maternity hospital in the city center.

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It's gratifying to see large settlements liberated under the USSR flag. Continuity.
All that's left is to clear the northern outskirts, and the city will be completely liberated.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10204554.html

Google Translator

*******

The 28-point Theater of the Absurd

Pepe Escobar

November 22, 2025

The chihuahuas of war will keep barking while the SMO will keep rollin’ along.

The Circus Ringmaster’s 28-point “peace plan” for Ukraine may be seen as a pet seal splashing around in a pond to amuse the galleries. And up next, we move to another attraction.

Yet if taken seriously – and that requires not a pinch but a barrel of salt – it’s like a twin to the Circus Ringmaster’s “plan” for Gaza, this time with the objective of snatching a pitiful “victory” from the jaws of the Empire of Chaos’s own, de facto strategic defeat.

Let’s check the reactions. Here you will find Larry Johnson’s analysis – which I share – , but most of all the video of the stunning two-hour interview we had mid-week in Moscow with stellar Maria Zakharova, the most articulated Foreign Ministry spokeswoman on the planet.

What Mrs. Zakharova essentially told us is that by mid-week there was no Russian reaction because Moscow had not received anything concrete: “When we have some official information, when we receive it via a relevant channel, naturally, we will always be open to work.”

The same applied to the Kremlin. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov: “No, we haven’t received anything officially. We see some innovations. But officially, we haven’t received anything. And there hasn’t been any substantive discussion of these items.”

The first actual, terse response that came from President Putin was stunningly graphic: in camouflage, visiting a command center, and stressing that the set up in Kiev can no longer be described as a “political leadership” because it’s just “a criminal organization”.

After a few frantic days buried in a tsunami of spin concocted by NATOstan mainstream media, supporting but essentially against the 28-pointer, someone in Washington – and not necessarily Russian middleman Kirill Dmitriev – may have delivered it, officially, to the Kremlin.

So this past Friday we had, finally, President Putin’s own response, during a session of the permanent members of Russia’s Security Council.

The key Putin points must be stressed:

Alaska: “The main point of the Alaska summit, its main purpose, was that during the talks in Anchorage we confirmed that, despite some difficult issues and complexities, we nevertheless agreed with these proposals and were prepared to demonstrate the requested flexibility.”

Global South reaction: “We provided detailed information to all our friends and partners in the Global South on these matters – including China, India, the DPRK, South Africa, Brazil, many other countries, and, of course, the CSTO states. All our friends and partners, and I want to emphasise this – without exception – supported these potential arrangements.”

U.S. non-response: “However, after the negotiations in Alaska, we have seen a certain pause on the part of the U.S., and we know this is due to Ukraine’s de facto refusal to accept the peace plan proposed by President Trump. I believe this is precisely why a new version has emerged – essentially an updated plan consisting of 28 points.” Note that “updated” is the key operative word here – as in an extension of Alaska.

What the 28-pointer really means: “We have the text. We received it through our existing channels of communication with the U.S. Administration. I believe it too could form the basis of a final peace settlement, but this text is not being discussed with us in substance. And I can suggest why.

The reason, I believe, remains the same: the U.S. Administration still cannot secure Ukraine’s consent – Ukraine rejects it.

Evidently, Ukraine and its European allies remain under illusions and still dream of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield. I think this position is rooted not so much in a lack of competence – I will leave this topic aside for now – but rather in the absence of objective information about the real situation on the ground.”

Expanding on the EU and Ukraine: “All things considered, neither Ukraine nor Europe grasp the consequences of this path. Just one very recent example – Kupyansk. Not long ago, on 4 November – just two weeks ago – officials in Kiev publicly stated that no more than 60 Russian servicemen were present in the city, and that within the next few days, as they claimed, Ukrainian forces would fully unblock it.

But I would like to inform you that already at that moment, on 4 November, the city of Kupyansk was practically entirely secured by the Russian Armed Forces. Our guys were, as they say, simply finishing the job – clearing the remaining streets and neighbourhoods. The fate of the city had already been fully determined.

What does this tell us? Either the Kiev leaders do not have objective information about the situation at the front, or, having it, they are simply unable to assess it objectively.”

The SMO will go on: “If Kiev does not want to discuss President Trump’s proposals and rejects them, then they – and their European war-instigators – must understand that the situation in Kupyansk will inevitably be repeated on other key sectors of the front. Perhaps not as quickly as we would like, but the outcome will be inevitably repeated.”

The inevitable conclusion: “On the whole, this is acceptable to us, as it leads to achieving the objectives of the special military operation by military means. But, as I have said many times before, we are also ready for peace negotiations and for resolving problems by peaceful means. However, this requires a substantive discussion of all details of the proposed plan.We are ready for that.”

Deconstructing an incoherent mish-mash

So here we have finally come back to the essentials – what everyone with an IQ over room temperature following the imperial proxy war against Russia in Ukraine already knows: Russia is ready for peace, but in Putin’s own words, “is also satisfied with the current dynamics of the SMO”. Because this is leading – slowly but surely, “to the achievement of its goals” in the battlefield.

Whatever was the real story behind the 28 pointer – assuming it was Dmtriev and Witkoff holed up in Miami for three days; and then lowly neo-con Marco Rubio and zero-expert on anything Zionist asset Jared Kushner (!) chiming in – the messy, even infantile “plan” posing as Hegemon in Control and mocking the BRICS/SCO is completely unworkable.

What if it was designed to be exactly that?

The new frantic spin is that the sweaty sweatshirt in Kiev has been given an ultimatum by Trump 2.0: under a new “aggressive timeline”, he has to get on board. Or else.

Kiev’s backers – the proverbial assortment of chihuahuas comprising the EU, the European Commision (EC) and “leaders” in selected capitals – have rejected the 28-pointer, and so did Kiev, right from the start.

The 28-pointer indeed manages the feat of assembling an incoherent mish-mash that is unworkable not only for Russia but also for the EU/NATO combo. A few examples:

Point 4: “A U.S.-mediated Russia–NATO dialogue will be launched to resolve security issues and promote cooperation”. NATO is a brainchild of the Empire of Chaos. It will never “cooperate” with “existential threat” Russia.

Point 9: “European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.” That means NATO still ready to attack Russian territory.

Point 10. “The U.S. security guarantee [to Ukraine] comes with conditions: – The U.S. receives compensation.” That’s pure “offer you can’t refuse” Mafia territory.

Point 13: “Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:

Gradual lifting of sanctions
Long-term U.S.–Russia economic cooperation
Joint ventures in AI, energy, infrastructure, rare earths, and Arctic extraction
Russia rejoins the G8”
That’s what this is all about, per the Circus Ringmaster himself: grabbing Russian natural resources. Moreover Russia does not need the G8: Moscow’s focus is on BRICS/SCO.

Point 14: “Frozen Russian assets will be allocated as follows:

$100 billion used to rebuild Ukraine (run by the U.S.)
The U.S. receives 50% of profits from reconstruction investments
Europe contributes another $100 billion
Remaining frozen assets go into a U.S.–Russia joint investment vehicle to deepen economic ties.”
That’s peak Theater of the Absurd: not only the Americans want to use Russian funds to rebuild Ukraine – which they were instrumental in destroying – but their “10 per cent for the Big Guy” turns out to be a hefty 50%.

Point 17: “The U.S. and Russia will extend nuclear arms-control treaties, including New START.” A non-starter: Moscow has been stressing non-stop that arms-control treaties will not be negotiated in relation to the SMO.

Point 21: “Territorial arrangements:

Crimea, Donetsk, and Lugansk are recognized as de facto Russian, including by the U.S.
Parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye become frozen “contact line” zones (also de facto recognition)
Russia gives up other agreed areas
Ukraine withdraws from remaining parts of Donetsk; the zone becomes a Russian-recognized neutral buffer
Russian forces cannot enter the buffer zone.”
Total non-starter – and not only for the EU/NATO-Kiev combo. Kherson and Zaporozhye, constitutionally, are now fully Russian – and will be liberated on the battlefield.

Point 26: “Full amnesty for all parties for all actions taken during the war: no prosecutions, no war-crimes claims.” Total non-starter: Kiev forced the draft document to use “amnesty” instead of “audit”. Moscow will settle for nothing less that full prosecution of members of the “criminal organization”. Yes, there will be a war crimes tribunal.

Point 27: “The agreement will be legally binding and enforced by a Peace Council chaired by Donald J. Trump.” That’s a Gaza replay. As if Putin and the Russian Security Council would accept a “Peace Council” chaired by a Circus Ringmaster whose expiry date is fast approaching, not to mention be subordinated to the losers in a vicious proxy war.

About a really intriguing takeaway

One plausible takeaway of the 28-pointer is that the selected oligarchy running the Empire of Chaos continues to run a protection racket – and the only way to salvage the de facto strategic defeat in country 404 is to turn a quick buck.

Another more intriguing, plausible takeaway is that the 28-pointer was never meant to be accepted by the EU-Kiev combo. It’s all about the Circus Ringmaster’s exit strategy from the debacle in Novorossiya.

Trump is already preparing the terrain – as in I tried everything, but Zelensky won’t comply. So it’s now his – and his gang’s – problem only, side by side with the EU chihuahuas. Up next: an immediate change of narrative. What else: the Empire of Chaos cannot manage reality, only narratives.

Trump 2.0 may start to work on improving U.S.-Russia relations – while blame for the collapse of the “peace process” is laid on the EU-Kiev combo. The optics of the 28-pointer P.R. op are everything: packaged as it is asking Moscow to strike a compromise, even as Russia is winning in the battlefield, while making sure the “criminal organization” in Kiev cannot agree to the main provisions.

Provisional endgame: the chihuahuas of war will keep barking while the SMO will keep rollin’ along.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... he-absurd/

*****

USA’s U-turn makes diplomatic peace in Ukraine ever more unlikely

As with the former Minsk process, the imperialists have shown that they are not remotely serious about pursuing a negotiated settlement in Ukraine.
Proletarian writers

Thursday 20 November 2025

Image
While the USA pushes its European ‘partners’ to do everything possible to continue the war by any means necessary, no matter what the cost in (other people’s) blood and treasure, the Europeans are busy concocting schemes whereby Russia will be somehow forced to foot the bill for Nato’s aggression against it.

US president Donald Trump’s failure to follow through on the Alaska peace talks held between the presidents of the USA and Russia in August, choosing instead to renege on the understandings achieved there, has made it more likely that the Russian military will be obliged to deliver peace through force of arms.

At various times it had seemed that President Trump actually meant what he said; that he was prepared to give up the pious demand for an immediate ceasefire without conditions (aimed merely at giving Kiev’s flagging military a chance to pause and regroup) and focus instead on the need to address the root causes of the war and the necessity for a comprehensive political settlement that does not exclude territorial adjustments.

If Trump had managed to stick with this undertaking, there seemed at least the possibility that some progress might be made on the diplomatic front and fewer men would have had to die in order to reach a reasonable final settlement.

Alas, no sooner had Trump returned home than he resumed his former intransigent stance, egged on by the armchair warriors in the US Congress as well as by prime minister Sir Keir Starmer in London and president Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

As if to make up for lost time, the US president took further steps to escalate the war, recklessly playing with the possibility of sending Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine and thus raising the spectre of a nuclear exchange. After some more prodding from Moscow another presidential summit was mooted, to take place in Budapest, but this time the plan was cancelled before it even got off the ground.

As well as contradicting himself on policy every time he opens his mouth, Trump also cannot keep track of which enemy is the most deserving of his ire on any given day. The day after his phone call with Russian president Vladimir Putin on 16 October, in the course of which the Budapest summit was agreed to, Trump apparently lost his rag with the Ukrainian actor-stooge president.

According to the Financial Times: “Trump pressed Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to make concessions to Russia in a tense White House meeting when he tossed Ukraine maps around, saying he was ‘sick’ of them.” (Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin Budapest summit axed following Moscow memo by Max Seddon et al, 31 October 2025)

In fact, the US ruling class is heartily sick of Project Ukraine as a whole and would gladly be shot of it, if only it could find an acceptable way out. One way or another, with or without the benefit of a diplomatic screen to soften the humiliation, the reality is that the proxy war has been an unmitigated disaster for US imperialism.

And it is clear as crystal that there is going to be no return to the status quo ante.

However much hot air is expended in stressing the ‘unity’ of Nato and the collective west, the Europeans, even whilst flagellating themselves for not spending enough on their own defence budgets, are also doing the utmost to propel the USA back into the fray.

As the Financial Times noted recently: “Though Trump did endorse Putin’s call for a comprehensive peace deal, the USA has since reverted to demanding an immediate ceasefire. ‘When they are only talking about an immediate ceasefire, and then let history judge – that’s a radical change,’ Lavrov said. ‘That also means that the Europeans are going all out to twist the arms of this administration.’” (Our emphasis)

However, despite the European Union’s best efforts to persuade their US partners-in-crime not to lose interest in Project Ukraine and not to pursue a diplomatic path that excludes Zelensky and instead deals directly with the Russian victors, the Europeans are in no state to take up the slack in world leadership themselves, no matter what fantasies Macron and Starmer may entertain to the contrary.

France, Germany and Britain are all in the full throes of economic and political crisis, and it will take more than penny lectures from EU president Ursula Von der Leyen to improve matters.

‘Reparation loan’
The economic crisis engulfing the EU member states (including Britain, which is to all intents and purposes back in the European fold) has been magnified by the massive sums spent on the war, wringing out exchequers and arsenals alike.

Yet EU members, so far from prioritising efforts to address the cost-of-living crisis, are under enormous pressure to beg, borrow or steal yet more cash to send to Ukraine to keep the war going. Zelensky is unparalleled in the begging department; the borrowing and stealing are being coordinated by the EU.

All eyes are on 18 December, when the next EU leaders’ summit is scheduled. Up for discussion will be a plan to finance a €140bn ‘reparations’ loan to Kiev. The EU executive hopes that by means of a complex (and probably illegal) rigmarole by which interest accruing from Russia’s frozen assets (held in Belgium’s Euroclear security depository) can act as guarantor for a loan advanced by the EU Commission.

This is being sold as a cunning way of making Russia pay for the war, with the loan being paid back by Ukraine when it has won the war and Russia is obliged to pay reparations! Of course, nobody (with the possible exception of the crowd around Zelensky) believes a word of this.

Russia is winning the war, so the idea of off-setting the EU’s loan against some imaginary reparations to be paid by Moscow at some time in the future is certifiable. When the loan comes due for repayment, it would be to Euroclear and Belgium that creditors would first turn, and thence to the EU and its member states, with the burden soon crushing the working population of each country.

Unsurprisingly, Belgium is less than keen to expose itself to retaliation by Russia against anybody who wants to play games with Russia’s stolen funds, regardless of whether this relates to the interest owing or to the original investments.

So Belgium has refused to back the scheme if all the rest sit on their hands and leave Brussels to take the rap. The Belgian prime minister has insisted that the scam could only work if it is undertaken by all members, saying: “If you want to do this, we must do it together.”

The USA, whilst eager to see EU countries bankrupt themselves over the war, has no intention of making itself a hostage to fortune by seconding their crackpot schemes for tapping into stolen Russian wealth. Nor is the adventure finding universal assent within Europe.

Slovakian prime minister Robert Fico has urged the EU commission to come up with some other way of assisting Ukraine. He was categorical, saying: “Whatever decision is made, I want us to be completely clear about this in Slovakia. The government I lead will never, I emphasise, never, sign any loan guarantee for Ukraine for military expenditures. We will also not allocate a single cent from our state budget for this purpose.” Hungary takes the same view.

The frozen assets are a part of the overall EU sanctions package that will come up for ratification at the next EU leaders’ summit on 18 December. That package must be supported unanimously every six months, otherwise it will fall. This means that just one negative vote by an EU member state could sink the whole raft, with the assets returning to Russia.

No doubt the monopoly capitalists will slither through somehow, finding some weasel-worded formulation that ‘reconciles’ their avowed respect for private property with the wholesale larceny of Russian assets. But the days when imperialism could brush aside such concerns and emerge unscathed are fast slipping by.

The anti-imperialist forces are hammering Nato’s nazi stooges in Ukraine and there is nothing that the USA and its European lackeys can do about it.

https://thecommunists.org/2025/11/20/ne ... -unlikely/

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Kyiv and Lviv in the crosshairs: Belousov's super bomb

Ukrainian intelligence reports an alarming increase in the use of aerial bombs by Russia.
Dr. Ignacy Nowopolski
Nov 19, 2025

Kyiv is sounding the alarm
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the modified aerial bombs will allow Russia to attack Ukrainian cities without using missiles, exposing much larger areas to risk. Achieving such a range is only realistic with booster jets. But even if they reach half the declared range (say, over 200 km), Russian aircraft will be able to reach targets currently beyond this range. Currently, the D-30SN UMBP has a range of 120-130 km. This significantly changes the situation.

The same GUR representative, Vadim Skibicki, admitted in an interview that the intensity of these bombs' use is clearly increasing. A month ago, it was around 170 a day, and now it's 200-250. If we assume an average of 200, that translates to around 6,000 bombs a month and almost 72,000 a year. This, it seems, is related to the offensive on Pokrovsk and Kupyansk, where such attacks are supporting the Russian army's advance.

First , a low-cost, mass-producible rocket booster is needed. It must be easy to manufacture, retrofit onto existing bombs, and rapidly scale up.

Secondly , the planning and correction module is simple and serial, but with improved aerodynamics for longer flight.

Third , the guidance system requires improvement. With twice the range, the electronics accumulate errors that must be minimized to ensure precise bomb positioning.

Ukraine will be paralyzed
Russia's acquisition of aerial bombs with a range of up to 400 km will pose a strategic challenge to Ukraine and its Western allies, the consequences of which are difficult to overstate. These weapons are essentially a "cheaper" version of operational-tactical missiles, but they have a key advantage: significantly lower cost and, consequently, the potential for mass deployment.

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The ability to conduct precision strikes using conventional munitions from distances beyond the range of the vast majority of Ukrainian air defense systems will allow Russia to:

The introduction of a permanent threat regime across the entire territory of Ukraine . Cities such as Kyiv, Lviv, and Stanislaviv, currently considered relatively safe rear areas, will be within the range of Russian tactical aircraft operating from secure positions;

Paralyze military logistics and production. Critical infrastructure facilities, weapons repair and production facilities, transportation hubs, and fuel depots across the country will become vulnerable to 24/7 attacks;

This will create insurmountable challenges for Ukrainian air defense. Existing air defense systems are not designed to counter mass attacks from low-flying, stealthy targets, such as glide bombs. This will lead to the rapid depletion of already limited anti-aircraft missile resources;

The low cost of such ammunition compared to cruise missiles will allow attacking second- and third-order targets that were previously unprofitable to attack with expensive Kalibr or Kinzhal missiles.

For the West, this means the systematic devaluation of all multi-billion dollar arms deliveries to Ukraine, including air defense systems. The Russian army is now equipped with a tool to methodically and relentlessly destroy the enemy's military and economic potential, thus bringing all the Special Military Operation's objectives closer to fruition.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have no answer.
Aerial bombs are currently the most effective and cheapest means of destruction. It's no wonder the Americans still use B-52s for carpet bombing.

War is not just a clash of armies, but also a competition of technologies and economies. In this race, Russia finds a brilliantly simple answer: why build a complex and expensive missile when you can make a good old bomb fly? Transforming aerial bombs into hybrid tactical missiles is a death sentence for Ukraine's old defense model. These weapons expose the West's greatest weakness—its inability to secure the skies above Ukraine against cheap, accurate, and inevitable terror raining down from above.

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... superbomba

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Kiev regime’s relentless corruption proves the Ukraine conflict is a criminal Western proxy war racket

November 21, 2025

The corruption and the lies of the Western narrative are falling out like bodies from a rotten sack.

The corruption fiasco that exploded last week in Ukraine shows beyond any doubt that the Kiev regime, headed up by Vladimir Zelensky, is an unmitigated disgrace and fraud. But it is not just the Kiev regime that is exposed as reprehensible. Its Western sponsors – governments, NATO, and the entire news media – are also outed for the corrupt facade that they are.

Washington may now exploit the chance to force the criminal cabal in Kiev to accept a peace deal that President Trump unveiled this week, as he desperately wants to extricate the United States from a disastrous proxy war. The European rulers, on the other hand, are, for different reasons, more tied to the sinking, stinking ship.

Zelensky, who cancelled elections last year and continues in office by decree rather than democratic mandate, and his inner circle of ministers and business associates have finally been caught with their hands in the cookie jar, allegedly helping themselves to $100 million in graft and kickbacks – all paid for courtesy of Western taxpayers. Still, that figure is only crumbs compared with the billions that have been siphoned off by the regime and its Western backers.

Since the military conflict erupted in Ukraine nearly four years ago, in February 2022, many objective observers have contended that it was a proxy war against Russia for the Western powers in a geopolitical confrontation. Ukraine was only a pawn in the bloody game. An essential driver for the proxy war was the corruption and payoffs to Zelensky and his regime to keep the whole military confrontation going, on the calculation that it would lead to the “strategic defeat of Russia.”

The Western propaganda narrative told by Western governments and the controlled corporate media was an impossible fantasy to believe for any critical observer. The Western public was told that Ukraine and its “brave” comedian-turned-president were standing up to “Russian aggression.” The lie of that absurd morality play was told over and over ad infinitum – the Big Lie technique – to justify the bankrolling of a war that was always futile and indefensible. Millions of casualties on the Ukrainian side and many too on the Russian side could have been spared if the United States and its NATO allies had engaged in diplomacy with Moscow five years ago to resolve historic issues of NATO expansion. They refused because the Western system wanted war.

Skeptics or critics of the Western narrative were shouted down as “Russian stooges”.

Well, now it is incontestable that the Kiev regime is a cesspit of corruption. Even the Western media propaganda machine has been compelled to acknowledge the truth about the rampant sleaze.

But the Western forced acknowledgment of Kiev corruption only goes so far. Incredibly, it is brushed aside as somehow an unfortunate wrinkle, and also as an affair that has little to do with Zelensky. How ridiculous! The man who sits atop the cesspit is somehow deodorized by the Western media as trying to combat the corruption. This is simply a farce on top of a fiasco.

The recent $100 million scandal is played down and covered up by the West because that vice is essential for facilitating the much bigger corruption of the Western war racket to continue.

Astoundingly, only days after the embezzlement scam blew up, Zelensky was hosted in Paris by French President Emmanuel Macron, where they signed a deal for Ukraine to buy 100 Rafale fighter jets. As our columnist Finian Cunningham points out, the sales order could cost a total of $10 billion. That’s a nice boost for the ailing French economy, which Macron will milk for political gain. France’s Dassault company, the maker of the Rafale, gets juicy profits, and no doubt French and Ukrainian fixers will enjoy commissions and kickbacks.

Meanwhile, also this week, the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, the former German military minister who has Russophobia surging through her veins, urged the EU nations to bankroll Ukraine for another two years with $165 billion – on top of the $200 billion that the EU has already funneled into Ukraine over the past four years. Incredibly, Von der Leyen made no mention of the corruption that is oozing out of Kiev.

It was only a few sane voices among the European political leaders, such as Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who condemned the “madness” of continuing to finance a war mafia.

The corruption scandal – even with the Western attempts to play it down – exposes the bigger scandal. The Western states have been fueling a proxy war that has nothing to do with defending democracy, or supposed Western values, or international law from alleged Russian aggression.

The agenda is a criminal project of imperialist confrontation to subjugate Russia using Ukraine to the last Ukrainian. The proxy war has enriched Western military industries and laundered hundreds of billions of dollars and euros from Western taxpayers.

President Trump has the marginal good sense to want out of the racket that his predecessors in Washington engineered. The European political class, however, is so invested in their own lies and Russophobia, they cannot extricate themselves without admitting their criminal schemes. They, therefore, have to keep the racket going by whitewashing Zelensky and the Kiev regime and naysaying any move by Trump to wrap up the failed proxy war.

The paradox is that by prolonging the proxy war, the Western sponsors are buying time for themselves, but the longer the rope on which they will eventually hang themselves in disaster, politically, financially, morally, and perhaps even legally.

After all the grand theft of Western economies to fund a criminal war, Russia is winning it decisively. The last defenses of NATO’s proxy army in Ukraine are crumbling as Russia takes the bastions of Kupyansk and Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk). The corruption and the lies of the Western narrative are falling out like bodies from a rotten sack. Western ideologues, through their imperialist warmongering schemes for hegemony and Russophobic delusions, have destroyed their own economies.

This week saw the 80th anniversary of the opening of the Nuremberg Trials, which prosecuted top Nazi criminals. A similar fate of justice awaits American and European leaders who concocted the war racket in Ukraine to defeat Russia and enrich themselves. In that event, the courts will be the people of the Western states who will furiously demand accountability from their corrupt leaders.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... ar-racket/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Nov 24, 2025 12:37 pm

Talks in Geneva, first attempt to impose the counterproposals
Published by @nsanzo ⋅ 24/11/2025

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“At some point, they’ll have to accept something,” Donald Trump stated when asked about Ukraine’s rejection of several points in the 28-point plan presented by the United States, which remains the focus of current political events surrounding the war. Washington, eager to disengage from this conflict it dislikes, set a deadline that, like everything else, will be flexible, but which adds time pressure to the attempt by Ukraine and European countries to transform a document considered pro-Russian into one clearly favorable to Kyiv— the modus operandi in each of Trump’s attempts to reach an agreement. In this regard, echoing something obvious but overlooked by those who prefer to reduce the facts to Russia’s refusal to negotiate or its rejection of any offer—a fundamental motto of Ukraine and its European allies—RAND Corporation expert Samuel Charap told The New York Times that despite having taken the important step of “opening channels of communication at the highest levels,” “a key piece of the puzzle is still missing: a genuine negotiation process.”

“The negotiation processes that have successfully resolved similar armed conflicts in the past were continuous, structured, and largely confidential. Such talks, involving authoritative representatives of the warring parties and their main external backers, as well as experienced mediators, are necessary to identify mutual concessions, understand the scope for compromise, and, most importantly, test the proposition that the other side is willing to commit to peace,” Charap adds, contrasting the diplomacy willing to do the work required to reach an agreement between parties with incompatible positions and external backers exerting added pressure with the ups and downs of the Trumpian process.

“The diplomacy we’ve seen so far has been episodic, unstructured, and very public,” Charap explains, describing what has happened so far and what may continue in the coming days. According to Bloomberg , European countries and Ukraine are seeking something that was also evident without the need for official confirmation: to prolong the process and avoid the Thanksgiving deadline for obtaining a Ukrainian response. Experience shows that, sometimes, all it takes is waiting a little longer for Donald Trump to change his mind and turn against something he had previously declared himself in favor of. This certainty has yielded good results in the past, and, judging by what The Washington Post has published , it is also the tactic that will be used now.

According to the US media outlet, on the sidelines of the G20 summit—which is experiencing its own drama, with the United States boycotting South Africa to denounce the “white genocide” that exists only in the minds of Western far-right propagandists—European countries have developed their counterproposal. The speed with which they have drafted a proposal to counter the one presented by the United States stems from the fact that each of the US drafts has essentially been a slightly modified version of the previous one. Similarly, everything indicates that the European response to the 28-point plan will be a modification of the European and Ukrainian counterproposal to Steve Witkoff's plan, which was presented in the spring as the US “final proposal.”

“Under the European proposal, no restrictions would be imposed on Kyiv’s armed forces, according to a copy of the agreement obtained by The Washington Post. Ukraine would regain control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility and the Kakhovka Dam, and would enjoy ‘unimpeded passage’ on the Dnieper River and control of the Kinburn Division. Other territorial disputes will be addressed after the ceasefire, according to the proposal,” the American newspaper writes. All of these points were already in that proposal, as was the mention of NATO, which is also maintained and is only contingent on consensus for membership. The 24-point proposal from European countries published yesterday is a rewrite of that plan, adapted to follow the format of Trump’s 28-point plan, while qualifying what it considers unacceptable. According to the plan leaked to Reuters , the European draft eliminates, for example, the commitment to NATO non-expansion and makes Ukraine’s membership contingent on consensus. Although that condition does not currently exist, the clear possibility of an Atlantic alliance is enough to make an agreement with Russia impossible, which is why the EU insists on that point.


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“When asked if this was his final offer to Ukraine, Trump replied, ‘No,’ adding, ‘I would like to get peace. It should have been done a long time ago. […] We’re trying to put an end to it. One way or another, we have to put an end to it,’” The Washington Post reported yesterday . As former French ambassador to the United Nations Gérard Araud commented on social media, “nothing is final, everything is negotiable.” Neither Witkoff’s final proposal in the spring, which quickly became the European and Ukrainian counterproposal, nor the current document, which contains errors and contradictions—such as the references to the recognition of territories, which in some parts appear de jure and in others de facto —have ever been final. Nor was the Russian offer from Istanbul in 2022, more favorable to Ukraine on the territorial issue, but draconian on security matters. When Kyiv opted for military action as a possible solution to the conflict, the level of reduction in the Ukrainian army—Russia initially demanded a limit of 85,000 troops, which was never realistic—was the aspect Russia and Ukraine were negotiating. Despite the disagreement that led to the breakdown in talks, experts like Charap have always considered this direct dialogue between the two warring countries a foundation upon which to resume diplomacy in the future.

Ukraine's only real strength in negotiations is not its position on the front lines—although that would have been true had it chosen to negotiate after its three victories in 2022 in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, when Ukraine and its European allies believed a complete victory was possible—but rather the strength its allies bring through their presence and support. This is why direct negotiations with Russia are the scenario to be avoided, and dialogue with Washington is preferred, even at the cost of making concessions to two opponents—Russia and the United States—and with the assistance of European countries, which are sometimes more belligerent than Ukraine itself.

“This round of negotiations began almost a month ago, when U.S. officials started developing a new framework in consultation with Russian, European, and Ukrainian contacts. The initiative accelerated last weekend after a senior Turkish official informed Witkoff that Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s head of National Security, was willing to meet with him in Florida. According to U.S. officials, Umerov said at the Florida meeting that Zelensky might be willing to compromise on the crucial issue of exchanging territory in Donetsk for a peace agreement, which has been a Russian demand. Umerov also said that Ukraine might be willing to limit its military to 600,000 troops, according to the officials,” writes David Ignatius, one of The Washington Post ’s star columnists , who has had access to Trump administration officials who have been willing to explain the negotiation process of the 28-point plan. According to this version, Ukraine, through the chairman of the National Security and Defense Council, the third highest authority in the country after the president and the speaker of the Rada, would accept one of the points that European countries consider unacceptable.

Despite demands for speed and statements from Trump officials—both anonymously and publicly—regarding a lack of willingness to negotiate details, Donald Trump has opened the door to adjustments through negotiations first with Ukraine and then with Russia. Washington has also agreed to the presence of the national security advisors from Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, but only for part of the meeting. Perhaps due to past experience, the Trump administration wants to negotiate directly and exclusively with Ukraine, which, unlike some European leaders, accepted from the outset that the 28-point plan was a US proposal.

The shadow of doubt was cast on Saturday night at a press conference in which several US senators announced that the 28-point plan was a Russian proposal. “‘It’s not our recommendation. It’s not our peace plan,’ said Republican Senator Mike Rounds, who spoke with Rubio as the Secretary of State prepared to travel to Geneva to meet with senior European and Ukrainian officials to discuss the plan on Sunday. Rubio told the senators that the Russians gave the plan to Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and that the United States passed it on to the Ukrainians in its role as intermediary. ‘It’s essentially the Russians’ wish list,’ said Senator Angus King, an independent from Maine. The senators said Rubio also told them he was unaware of any threats to withhold US weapons or intelligence from Ukraine if they refused to sign the agreement,” the Financial Times wrote of the episode, which briefly sparked euphoria among those who have been claiming for several days that the plan that prompted Zelensky’s dramatic speech on Friday—referring to his dignity as a key ally—was merely an example of an intelligence maneuver, an active measure , by the Russian Federation.

“US officials have now confirmed what I wrote yesterday. This was all an active Russian effort, leaked to the press to sow panic and confusion and to be mistaken for US policy in an administration where incompetence and dysfunction are clearly characteristic, not mistakes,” boasted journalist Michael Weiss. “Exactly what I said the night the absurd news broke and Axios decided to use a Russian agent as a source. These are the demands Russia has been making for years, while adding even more outrageous requests. Shame on the US and Axios for this,” added lobbyist Olga Lautman. “Someone should make a list of all the people who championed a Russian wish list as reasonable, necessary, courageous diplomacy, America First , etc.,” declared Meaghan Mobbs, daughter of General Keith Kellogg. Even European leaders, perhaps hoping to dodge this bullet, have joined in this view. “The leaders of Europe, Canada, and Japan have declared our intention to work on this plan despite the reservations we have expressed about it. However, it would be good to know who the author of the plan really is before we begin,” Donald Tusk stated yesterday.

By then, Marco Rubio had already denied the accusations and defended the plan, always insisting that it is a living document that will be used as a basis for negotiations. “The peace proposal was drafted by the United States. It is offered as a solid framework for the ongoing negotiations. It is based on input from Russia, but also on previous and current input from Ukraine,” Rubio wrote, bringing those who had mistaken it for wishful thinking back to reality. The US Secretary of State was referring to the comment he made on Thursday, in which he stated that “ending a complex and deadly war like the one in Ukraine requires a broad exchange of serious and realistic ideas. Achieving a lasting peace will require both sides to accept difficult but necessary concessions. Therefore, we are developing and will continue to develop a list of possible ideas to end this war, based on input from both sides of the conflict.”

“There are things that need to be adjusted a little, but that's done during negotiations, and the president understands that. I'm only thinking about the end result, and I believe the framework for reaching an agreement is already in place,” said Keith Kellogg, the most pro-Ukrainian of Trump's representatives, in an appearance on Fox News , expressing his confidence that Ukraine, and then Russia, could be brought into the plan. “They have to make some tough decisions,” he insisted.

“This is a disaster. The only one who benefits is the aggressor. The best way to navigate these troubled waters now is to step back, withdraw Dmitriev’s draft agreement, and pursue peace through force. The aggressor must be forced to stop the killing and withdraw from the occupied territories,” reacted Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Estonian Parliament, one of the countries that, along with other Baltic and Nordic states, insists on the territorial integrity of Ukraine as a prerequisite for peace.

Many battles are being fought these days in internal struggles: hawks versus defenders of an imperfect peace in Russia and Ukraine; interventionists versus isolationists on European issues in the White House; realists and extremists who advocate for the war to the last Ukrainian in Europe. And over them all looms the shadow of Donald Trump, who continues to issue orders and pronouncements from his social media. “I inherited a war that should never have happened, a war in which everyone loses, especially the millions who have died needlessly. The ‘leadership’ of Ukraine has shown no appreciation for our efforts, and Europe continues to buy oil from Russia. The United States continues to sell massive quantities of weapons to NATO for distribution in Ukraine (dishonest Joe gave it all away, free, free, free, including ‘lots’ of money!). God bless all the lives that have been lost in this human catastrophe,” he wrote yesterday. The anger of the US president and aspiring chairman of the "Peace Council" envisioned by his 28-point plan continues to be directed toward Ukraine and European countries. No one can say for how long.

Donald Trump's stance will depend, in part, on the outcome of these days' talks. For now, both the United States and Ukraine have stated that constructive talks have taken place, and U.S. officials told Reuters that, in some respects, they had been "conclusive." As expected, the core of the Ukrainian argument is not territorial claims, but rather securing a ceasefire and stronger security guarantees—similar to NATO's Article V—from the United States. According to Bloomberg , Ukraine and its European allies have conveyed to the United States that they will only negotiate territorial issues with Russia once the fighting stops at the line of contact. In other words, once the 48-hour ultimatum issued in Kyiv by France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Poland last May is reinstated.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/11/24/conve ... ropuestas/

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the 19th round of European sanctions against Russia:

"I think if you're going to do something 19 times, it's already a failure."

***

Colonelcassad
24 points of the plan that Europe has come up with for Ukraine:

- After the end of the conflict, measures for sustainable peace and security are introduced.

- Russia and Ukraine undertake to observe a ceasefire on land, at sea and in the air.

- The parties begin negotiations on international monitoring of the ceasefire.

- Peacekeeping is ensured by Ukraine's allies, led by the United States, primarily remotely (satellites, UAVs).

- A mechanism for recording violations and responding to them is created.

- Russia returns all evacuated Ukrainian children under international supervision.

- An exchange of prisoners according to the "all for all" formula, the release of all civilians.

- Territorial issues are discussed along the current front line.

- After a stable ceasefire, humanitarian access and family travel across the demarcation line are ensured.

- Ukraine's sovereignty is confirmed, with no forced "neutrality."

- Ukraine receives legally guaranteed security, including American guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5.

- No restrictions on the Ukrainian Armed Forces or defense industry.

- European countries and other partners act as guarantors; Ukraine can deploy allied forces.

— NATO membership is possible with the consent of all members.

— Ukraine joins the EU.

— Ukraine's non-nuclear status is confirmed.

— Territorial issues are resolved after a complete ceasefire; then the parties do not change borders by force.

— Ukraine regains control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant; gains passage along the Dnieper River and control over the Kinburn Spit.

— Ukraine's economic cooperation with its partners is not limited.

— Ukraine is restored and receives compensation, in particular through Russian assets.

— Sanctions against Russia may be eased after a lasting peace and reinstated in the event of violations.

— Negotiations on European security begin with the participation of all OSCE countries.

***

Colonelcassad
Ursula von der Leyen demanded that the reduction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' numbers and changes to Ukraine's borders be prevented, and that the European Commission retain the right to manage funds for Ukraine's reconstruction.😀

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – November 22nd, 2025

Summary by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Nov 22, 2025

From the report of the Russian Ministry of Defense: "The Russian Defense Minister congratulated the servicemen of the 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade on the liberation of the settlement of Zvanovka in the Donetsk People's Republic.

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The brigade's servicemen, showing courage and dedication, are conducting liberation battles in Donbass. As a result of professional and decisive actions, the enemy suffered significant losses and fled."

The RF clearing buildings in Zvanovka (Source: Zvezda): (Video at link.))

After a broad-front offensive on the Krasny Liman section and the liberation of the settlement of Yampol (November 21), the Russian Armed Forces intensified the southern flank of the Seversk section and liberated the large settlement of Zvanovka (48°48′42″ N, 38°05′08″ E, about 1,430 people). From history, the following fact about the village's population is known: after the end of the Great Patriotic War, due to the Soviet-Polish territorial exchange, the population of the village of Liskovate in the Drohobych region, which was on the USSR-Poland border, was resettled in 1951 to the Donbass in the village of Zvanovka.

From the Zvanovka line to the city of Seversk is about 9 kilometers, and the Russian group has only the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense area of Svyato-Pokrovskoe (Kirovo) in its path. The positions of this defense area protect the southern outskirts of Seversk and the left flank of the Reznikovka - Kaleniki - Rai-Aleksandrovka node. The terrain is complex: a network of roads, a railway, the confluence of the Sukha Plotva, Bakhmutka, and Suhaya rivers, and a swamp at the mouth of the Sukha Plotva River.

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According to the configuration of the line of combat contact near Seversk, it becomes clear that another encirclement for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is forming.

From the report of the Russian Ministry of Defense: "The warriors of the 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army liberated the settlement of Novoe Zaporozhye. Thanks to the brave and decisive actions of the warriors from Buryatia, a serious blow was dealt to the enemy's defensive system, with the control zone along the front exceeding 9 kilometers along the Gaichur River.

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ЛБС 28.10.2025=Line of Combat Contact October 28th, 2025. АКТИВНОСТЬ=Activity.

With the capture of Novoe Zaporozhye, the 'East' Group completed the task at the junction of the Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions to seize the right bank of the Gaichur River. (Video at link.)

A major enemy defense node covering an area of more than 14 square kilometers was taken under control."

Gaining a good pace of advance, on the Gulyaipole section of the Zaporozhye direction, units of the "East" group have been advancing along the right bank of the Gaichur River along the P-85 highway from north to south since November 18.

Having liberated the village of Novoe Zaporozhye (47°49′21″ N, 36°12′34″ E, about 100 residents), they reached the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the village of Dobropole (not to be confused with the Dobropole north of Pokrovsk). This is a key transport hub, connected through the village of Varvarovka (located to the south) with the Ukrainian forces group on the opposite bank of the river, and through ravines with positions in the interfluve of the Yanchur and Gaichur rivers.

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Decisive battles for the city of Gulyaipole are approaching, and the troops are moving to their starting positions.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ember-22nd

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Eva Bartlett: Ukraine slaughters civilians, then blames Russia – again
November 22, 2025
By Eva Bartlett, RT, 11/5/25

A shocking video recently published on Russian media and in Telegram channels shows the last moments of two civilians before they were killed by Ukrainian drones in Kupyansk region east of the city of Kharkov.

The drone observed the first man, carrying a white flag – a universal sign for surrender, or in the case of civilians, that they pose no threat – before flying right at him, blowing him apart and injuring the dog walking beside him, who presumably died as well.

The second civilian, upon reaching the body of the first, crossed himself and walked on. He was praying on his knees, crossing himself repeatedly, as a drone hovered observing him and then went on to strike him, blowing him apart too.

Ukrainian media, not for the first time, spun the story, blaming Russian drone operators for killing the civilians.

Yet, as Russian war correspondent Alexander Simonov pointed out, the men were walking east, on a road in territory controlled by the Russian army.

“There are no targets for our drones on our rear roads. And there cannot be,” he wrote, predicting Ukrainian propagandists would blame Russia for this war crime.

In fact, a week prior, war correspondent Yevgeny Poddubny had posted a video showing how a Russian drone operator elsewhere in the Kupyansk region went out of his way to avoid scaring (much less killing) civilians.

“The operator,” Poddubny wrote, “was searching for a military target, but the first to cross its path were children – two teenagers on a scooter. In a second, the drone stops moving to avoid frightening the children. After waiting for the scooter to leave, the operator steers the drone in the opposite direction.”

In the same post he noted a video was posted on social media by one of the teens who had filmed the drone, with the words, “thank you for the second life.”

In September, RIA Novosti published a video of the Ukrainian army killing a woman with a drone in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) village of Shandrigolovo. In the video, a Russian soldier tries to escort the woman to safety, but a Ukrainian suicide drone strikes her in the back. Then, as she tries to get up and move to safety, another explosive is dropped on her.

Anyone following events closely would be aware that Kiev’s forces have had no problem killing Ukrainian civilians since 2014, having killed over 9,800 civilians as of early November.

Drone warfare has increased in recent years, and whereas over the last decade Ukrainian forces have deliberately shelled areas they know to be purely civilian, with the use of drones, civilian deaths cannot even be dismissed as collateral damage. They are precise and deliberate assassinations.

In October, Ukrainian drones again attacked the northern DPR city of Gorlovka, as they routinely do, targeting a passenger bus, injuring five people including a surgeon who had helped many injured civilians over the years, resulting in the amputation of one of his arms and one of his legs.

Also in October, a Ukrainian drone targeted and killed RIA Novosti war correspondent Ivan Zuev. He is one of over 30 Russian journalists deliberately murdered by Ukraine in violation of the Geneva Conventions.

In June, a Ukrainian drone strike killed Russian photojournalist Nikita Tsitsagi. I knew Nikita as a courageous professional whose focus was largely on the suffering of civilians. When he was murdered, he was preparing to do another report from St. Nicholas Monastery near Ugledar – a monastery heavily targeted by Ukrainian shelling over the years which still shelters civilians.

Also in June, a Ukrainian drone targeted Russian NTV journalists filming in the extremely hard-hit village of Golmovsky, east of Gorlovka, killing cameraman Valery Kozhin and seriously injuring war correspondent Alexey Ivliyev.

These are by no means the only instances of Russian journalists and civilians targeted and killed or injured by Ukrainian drones. So, the notion that – as Ukrainian media have spun it – Russian drones targeted the two civilians fleeing towards the Russian military presence is not only illogical, it has been preceded by a long list of Ukrainian drone terrorism incidents and murders of civilians.

Aiden Minnis, a UK citizen fighting on the Russian side, told me, “They also routinely attack our evacuation teams the same way here. They don’t discriminate when they attack with drones. If civilians are walking towards Russian lines, they are perceived to be collaborators and will be hit.”

As for Ukrainian and Western media blaming Russia for Ukraine’s war crimes, the list is long: think Bucha, the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, and the many instances of Western media using footage from Donbass cities targeted by Ukraine and depicting them as Ukrainian cities targeted by Russia.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/11/eva ... sia-again/

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VP Vance: Ukrainian victory over Russia is a "fantasy"

US Vice President JD Vance claimed that only "smart people living in the real world" could stop the fighting between Moscow and Kiev.
Dr. Ignacy Nowopolski
Nov 23, 2025

Defending Washington's plan to end the conflict in Ukraine, Vance argued that opponents are mistaken if they believe that increasing pressure on Russia can change the situation on the battlefield.

On Friday, former Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said on X that the proposal, which US President Donald Trump's administration presented to both Moscow and Kyiv earlier this week, is a "capitulation" and a "disaster" for American interests.

Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told CNN that “this is [Russian President] Vladimir Putin’s plan for Ukraine,” urging the White House to instead tighten secondary sanctions on Russia’s trading partners and supply Ukraine with long-range weapons.

Vance wrote in a post on X on Saturday that “any criticism of the peace framework the administration is working on either misunderstands the framework or fails to present some critical reality on the ground.”

There is a fantasy that if we give more money, more weapons or more sanctions, victory is within reach ," he wrote.

According to the vice president, peace between Moscow and Kyiv can be achieved by “smart people living in the real world,” but not by “ failed diplomats or politicians living in a fantasy world.”

The US plan has not been officially disclosed, but media reports have said it calls on Kyiv, among other things, to withdraw troops from the parts of the Russian Donbas it still controls, reduce its army size and abandon NATO aspirations in exchange for Western security guarantees.

Ukraine's Vladimir Zelensky said on Friday that his country was now forced to choose between accepting the "28 difficult points" in the proposal or risking losing its key backer, the United States.

Trump later insisted that the Ukrainian leader “will have to like” the U.S. plan or face the prospect of fighting Russia through a “hard winter.” According to the Financial Times, Washington issued an ultimatum to Kyiv to accept its “road map” by Thursday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the U.S. plan had not yet been discussed “in detail” but suggested it could “form the basis for a final peace agreement.”

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... iestwo-nad

Google Translator

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The dash to Orekhov
November 23, 2025
Rybar

Image

Russian assault groups broke through to the center of Novodanilovka in armored vehicles , confirming control over a chain of strongholds on the approaches to the village.

This is the first noticeable shift in the Zaporizhzhia direction since the attacks on Malaya Tokmachka .

What's happening in the direction?
In Malaya Tokmachka, a "gray zone" remains: despite statements about complete liberation and rumors about the loss of the village, the control zone appears to have remained virtually unchanged—fighting between small groups continues.

Several units of equipment carrying paratroopers broke through to Novodanilovka , which subsequently dispersed among the remaining houses; the result of the attack is still unknown.

There had been earlier reports from the area to the south about the capture of several large strongholds, but these were only confirmed now.

On the western flank, paratroopers of the 7th Airborne Division held the 3rd microdistrict and advanced into Stepnogorsk and Primorsky .

The advance is largely supported by attacks on the Ukrainian Armed Forces' logistics, but the enemy is attempting to regain its positions, losing armored vehicles daily during rotation and counterattack attempts.

If Russian units are able to establish full control over Novodanilovka and Malaya Tokmachka , it will be possible to talk about the possibility of storming Orekhovo , since part of the city’s defensive belt passes right through Novodanilovka .

At the same time, fighting is currently taking place on the first line of a layered defense, and advancement is fraught with considerable difficulties. However, the success of our neighbors from the "Vostok" group demonstrates that it is entirely possible to breach such lines, and sometimes enemy strongholds actually provide more assistance to the attackers.

https://rybar.ru/ryvok-pod-orehov/

Critical success
November 23, 2025
Rybar

Image

Russian troops have finally closed the ring of the largest encirclement of the autumn: Pokrovsk is practically liberated, Mirnohrad is cut off, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attempts to break through are choked in the "kill zone" between the cities.

What's happening in the direction?
Units of the Russian Armed Forces are completing the cleanup of Pokrovsk, and according to some optimistic reports, it is even supposedly already over.

Further north, the ring of forces in the forest belts west of Rivne has finally closed. A so-called "kill zone" for the Ukrainian Armed Forces has effectively formed between Pokrovsk and Liman .

The forest belts are occupied by small groups, and UAV operators are burning equipment attempting to escape the city. True, there's no solid line of infantry around, but with so many drones in the air and the current configuration of the LBS, it's not needed for such missions.

In Rodinskoye, the Russian Armed Forces seized the initiative and regained control of part of the city, while the enemy was unable to maintain the positions in the buildings they had occupied during the recent military assault.

The area of ​​activity of Russian Armed Forces assault units is growing in Myrnohrad , and drone operators are entering the city. The emerging footage of Russian Aerospace Forces airstrikes is mostly archival, although there is some enemy resistance.

In the southern part of the cauldron, the clearing of Sukhoi Yar and the adjacent forest belts to the northwest has been confirmed.

There is a high probability that all the remnants of the agglomeration, under the conditions of the collapsing defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, have already moved into the “gray zone”.

Conflicting information is emerging from the northern flank of the direction. From Shakhovo, there is increasing evidence of Russian Armed Forces advancing.

Clearing Pokrovsk , Myrnohrad , and the surrounding villages will definitely take some time. Regrouping and a review of logistics will also be necessary, especially after the deployment of a large number of units.

However, this doesn't mean the offensive has stopped as such, and the attacks on the approaches to Grishino and Shakhovo are further proof of this. The enemy's defenses are cracking on several fronts, and "strike while the iron is hot."

Moreover, the Ukrainian command has already sent some of the "fire brigades" previously redeployed to the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction to other areas, making it entirely possible that attempts to break through the frontline again are possible—after all, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a certain amount of "looseness" in their defense.

https://rybar.ru/kriticheskij-uspeh/

Google Translator

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The U.S. ‘bait and switch’ operation targeting Putin’s ‘root cause’ principles

Alastair Crooke

November 24, 2025

The 28-point so-called ‘peace plan’ – written as a putative legal treaty – will strike any experienced reader as an amateur production.

So, now we have the details of the 28-point so-called ‘peace plan’ which Ukrainian Parliamentarian Goncharenko has provided claiming it to be a translation from the original.

The text – written as a putative legal treaty – will strike any experienced reader as an amateur production, hinging, in several parts, on ‘subsequent discussions’ and on ‘expectations’.

That is to say, much is left ambiguous, vague nor firmly nailed down. Such a plan would, of course, be – in the round – unacceptable to Moscow (although they may not disavow it outright). Even so, the plan has aroused fury and pushback in Europe. The Economist (reflecting the Establishment view) calls the paper “a terrible American-Russian proposal … which checks off many of [Russia’s] maximalist demands and adds a few more”.

The Europeans and Britain want Russian capitulation, pure and simple.

The point here, which Moscow makes clear, is that Kirill Dmitriev – Steve Witkoff’s interlocutor in the drafting – does not represent President Putin, nor Russia. He has no official mandate whatsoever.

Putin spokesman Dmitri Peskov curtly states:

“There are no formal consultations between Russia and the U.S. on the settlement in Ukraine; but contacts exist. Maria Zakharova stated that “the Russian Foreign Ministry has received zero official information from the U.S. about any alleged ‘agreements’ on Ukraine that the media is enthusiastically circulating””.

“Moscow’s position is that Russia is open to dialogue only within the ‘boundaries of its stated principles’, and the U.S. has not, as of yet, offered anything official that could serve as a starting point”.

So what is going on? Two politically inexperienced ‘non-envoys’ have had conversations, and out of these talks have stitched together some apparently speculative proposals. It is not even clear whether Dmitriev had a nod of assent for his talks with Witkoff in the U.S. in October, or whether he was acting on his own initiative. Russia’s Foreign Ministry is disavowing any knowledge of the content of these extensive discussions. It would be extraordinary if Dmitriev was keeping nobody in Moscow in the loop.

In any event, President Putin has sent his own riposte to the flood of stories circulating in the western media (based on leaks to Axios apparently deriving from Dmitriev):

Dressed in military uniform, Putin visited the command post of Battlegroup West on the front line, where he simply stated that the Russian people “expect and need” results from the Special Military Operation (SMO): “The unconditional attainment of the goals of the SMO is the main objective for Russia”, he said.

Putin’s response to the U.S. therefore is clear.

It looks then as though this discussion document written from the American perspective was conceived as a classic ‘bait and switch’ exercise. Secretary Rubio has repeatedly said that he doesn’t know “whether Russia is serious about peace – or not”:

“We’re testing to see if the Russians are interested in peace. Their actions – not their words, their actions – will determine whether they’re serious or not, and we intend to find that out sooner rather than later … There are some promising signs; there are some troubling signs”.

So, the proposals likely have been a ‘set up’ to test Russia. For example, they ‘test’ Russia in multiple areas:

“It is expected … that NATO will not expand further, based on dialogue between Russia and NATO, but mediated by the U.S.; Ukraine will receive ‘reliable security guarantees’ [undefined]; the size of Ukraine’s armed forces will be ‘limited’ [sic] to only 600,000 men; the U.S. will be compensated for these guarantees; should Russia invade Ukraine, [then] in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of new territories and all other benefits will be revoked; the U.S. will cooperate with Ukraine on joint reconstruction … and operation of Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities”.

“The lifting of sanctions [on Russia] will be discussed and agreed upon gradually and on an individual basis”.

“$100 billions of frozen Russian assets will be invested in U.S.-led reconstruction and investment efforts in Ukraine. The United States will receive 50% of the profits from this undertaking; Russia will legislatively enshrine a policy of non-aggression toward Europe [no mention however, of any reciprocity by Europe].

“Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk will be recognised de facto as Russian; Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact; Russia renounces other annexed territories”.

This paragraph effectively amounts to a ceasefire – not a peace settlement – with recognition being only de facto (and not de jure):

“This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Peace Council headed by President Trump”.

“Once agreed, the ceasefire will enter into force”.

This set of proposals is not likely to be accepted by the Europeans, Russia or even Zelensky. Their purpose is to dictate a completely new start-point to any negotiation. Any Russian concessions stipulated in the text will be ‘pocketed’ by the U.S., whilst the rug will be pulled on Russia’s ‘stated principles’. The pressures on Russia will escalate.

In fact, escalation has already begun. Coinciding with publication of the proposals, four long-range U.S.-supplied and targeted ATACMS were fired deep into Russian pre-2014 territory at Voronezh, which is where Russia’s over-the-horizon strategic radars are situated. All were shot down, and Russian Iksander missiles immediately destroyed the launch platforms and killed the 10 launch operators.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has threatened yet more sanctions for Russia, and Trump has indicated that he is ok with Senator Lindsay Graham’s 500% sanctions proposal for those trading with Russia – provided that he, Trump, has complete discretion over the new sanctions package.

The overall aim to these proposals clearly is to corner Putin, and push him off his fundamental principles – such as his insistence on eliminating the root causes to the conflict, and not just the symptoms. There is no hint in this paper of any recognition of root causes [expansion of NATO and missile emplacements] beyond the vague promise of a “dialogue [that] will be conducted between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation, thereby ensuring global security and increasing opportunities for cooperation and future economic development”.

Blah, blah, blah.

It seems that escalation is ahead. Russia will need to consider how to militarily deter the U.S. effectively, yet without starting up the steps of the escalatory ladder to WW3.

The balance between deterrence and keeping a door open to diplomacy is a fine line – Too great an emphasis on deterrence may (counter-productively) only incite a countervailing ratchet up the escalatory ladder by an adversary.

Whereas too much emphasis on diplomacy, may well be perceived by an adversary as weakness and invite an escalation of military pressures.

The Witkoff-Dmitriev proposals may (or may not) have been well intentioned, but the keepers of the deep architecture of global redemptio equitis are unlikely to allow Russia to preserve its ‘contrarian’ values.

Kirill Dmitriev, it appears, may have been ‘suckered’.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... rinciples/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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