Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:07 pm

Chronicle of the special military operation for August 8, 2023
August 9, 2023
Rybar

Ukrainian formations continue to look for weaknesses in the Russian defense. Today, DRGs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine landed under the cover of night in the area of ​​the Cossack Camps on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region . On the outskirts of the settlement, the enemy was driven back and driven to the opposite side.

While the Ukrainian formations continue to roll on our defensive lines in the area of ​​​​Kurdyumovka and Andreevka in the Bakhmut direction , the RF Armed Forces took control of the forest belt and strongholds south of Olshany and Pervomaisky in the Kupyansky sector.

At the Vremyevsky section , the Armed Forces of Ukraine made an attempt to enter Urozhaynoye , but were thrown back to their original positions. In the Orekhovsky sector, the enemy tried to capture strongholds of the RF Armed Forces in the Rabotino area , but was unsuccessful.

The daily shelling of Russian territories continues. Civilian infrastructure in the LPR , Bryansk , Belgorod , Kursk and Kherson regions , as well as in the Donetsk People's Republic , were hit , where three people were killed and 12 others were injured in continuous strikes.

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Attack on the accumulation of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Andreevka

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The VerumReactor channel published footage of the destruction of a cluster of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine west of Andreevka in the Bakhmut direction . The calculation of the UAV of the 72nd Omsbr detected the movement of the enemy, who was probably preparing for the next assault on the positions of the Russian army near Andreevka. As a result of a concentrated strike, at least one MRAP was destroyed. In addition, an armored personnel carrier-4 can be seen in the frame, and an unidentified armored personnel carrier with a mine sweep. The attacks of Ukrainian formations on the village intensified. Due to the lack of progress in Kleshcheevka , the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided to force the Russian troops to retreat by striking from the flank. But at the moment, Russian fighters successfully repel the offensive.

The situation on the front line and the fighting

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In the North Ukrainian direction in the Sumy region, a high concentration of the enemy remains, judging by the number of subscribers of satellite terminals along the Belgorod and Kursk regions . This indicates the setting of backup communication channels. Despite the lack of visible action, such activity also indicates a possible future activation of Ukrainian DRGs in Russian territories. Previously, terrorists from the so-called "Russian Volunteer Corps" have already been noted in these areas .

Also, the transfer of units of the 58th armored personnel carrier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is expected to the Belgorod region, which is currently being re-equipped at the training ground in Goncharovsky inChernihiv region . In addition, about one and a half thousand people are concentrated at the Ugroeds - where the border crossing Kolotilovka - Pokrovka has earned . And the presence of such a contingent is directly related to the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction.

The Ukrainian command is considering the option of attacking the Russian regions. Moreover, the operation is led by Major General Melnik . Given the number of forces near the peaceful corridor that has been launched, provocations on the border and the subsequent transfer of DRGs to Russia are not ruled out.

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In the Starobelsk direction near Kupyansk, servicemen of the West group of the RF Armed Forces continue their positional offensive. As a result of the attack on the Liman 1st-Pervomaiskoye sector , Russian fighters knocked out formations of the 14th Ombre of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from several strongholds. At the moment, the Russian army has taken important positions at the landings south of Olshany and Pervomaisky . The line of control runs along forest belts adjacent to settlements.

At the same time, to the south, scouts from the 1st Tank Army of the RF Armed Forces discovered an armored personnel carrier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the village of Kislovka , southeast of Kupyansk, and hit it from an anti-tank complex. Due to a serious deterioration in the situation, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred additional detachments of the 95th Airborne Infantry Brigade of Ukraine to Sinkovka to help the 14th brigade and consolidated rifle formations.

Also, enemy mechanized units arrived in the Dvurechnaya area. It is not entirely clear to which formation they belong - it is possible that they belonged to the 41st Ombre, which was earlier deployed near Kupyansk.

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In the Soledar direction, after a few days of a relatively stable situation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine again launched an offensive at the Andreevka-Kleshcheevka line . After artillery preparation by the forces of the 22nd brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they went on the attack. As well as in other areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, only infantry assault groups are involved. Artillery and tanks support the advancing fire. The front line is currently in the fog of war - strongholds are changing hands.

Russian paratroopers report repulsing most of the rollovers. Colleagues from the Vystrel channel report on enemy attempts to break through Andreevka to Kleshcheevka , where battles have been going on for many weeks.

The units of the RF Armed Forces at the forefront are actively assisted by aviation and artillery. According to the interception of negotiations between members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an ammunition depot was destroyed in Krasnoe . A similar hit was noted in Dyleevka . The situation is difficult, but manageable. The enemy presses, trying to gain a foothold in settlements, and does not take into account losses. With success on the southern flank, it is likely that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will move towards Kleshcheevka and the Kurdyumovsky triangle .

The situation in the Donetsk direction remains the same: positional battles and artillery duels are taking place in the Maryinsky and Avdeevsky sectors , the parties are actively using drones, and also arrange attacks on enemy positions. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, having no great prospects in this sector of the front, continue to terrorize the local population.

In the Avdiivka direction, Russian troops discovered a firing point of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, after which heavy fire from our artillerymen from the 9th brigade fell upon the enemy.

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In the Vremievsky sector yesterday late in the evening, the consolidated assault groups of the 35th and 36th infantry regiments, with the support of the 1st brigade and the brigade-artillery group of the 72nd Ombre of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, began the assault on Urozhaynoye from the north and northeast. By midnight, Ukrainian formations were able to gain a foothold on the northern outskirts of the village, however, as a result of a counterattack by Russian troops, the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreated to their original lines.

The evacuation groups of the 128th brigade of the territorial defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, under the cover of artillery and electronic warfare crews, evacuated the wounded and those killed in battle. However, the attacks will resume soon. Three assault detachments of the 88th battalion of the 35th brigade of marines were transferred to the landing area northwest of Staromayorsky .

At the moment, the efforts of the opponents are concentrated on Harvest. The village itself has actually been overtaken by the fate of the neighboring Staromayorsky - it was almost razed to the ground. Despite this, the fighters of the RF Armed Forces hold the lines, but the onslaught of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is becoming stronger.

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In the Orekhovsky sector, combined assault groups 116 and 118 of the 10th AK brigade attacked the Rabotino-Verbovoye line . Only infantry detachments without armored vehicles were involved in the attack.

The attack was repulsed, but in the morning the Armed Forces of Ukraine resumed the offensive with the support of artillery and the forces of the 15th brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine. At some point, they even managed to occupy the northern outskirts of Rabotino, but in the end, the fighters pushed the APU back. The fighting continues.

Also, positional battles began in the vicinity of Belogorye , where the Ukrainian command had deployed one platoon from Gulyai-Polye the day before . Activation in this area may indicate possible strike attempts in this direction.

Along with this, in the rear in the Tavriysky region , a strike force is being formed. Formations of 65 OMB and 128 OMG Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine arrived there with armored vehicles. Also, additional assault units of 10 AK were transferred to Orekhov .

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In the Kherson direction , due to the distraction to other directions, the situation along the Dnieper went out of public view. For several months, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continued to fire on the left bank, covering the actions of reconnaissance groups on boats. However, after the replacement of the Airborne Forces units that had been operating there for a long time with new formations, the Armed Forces of Ukraine intensified attacks on Russian positions. The goal in this case is simple - to take advantage of the inexperience and ignorance of the situation of the arrivals to create a bridgehead on the left bank.

During the night, seven Ukrainian boats landed up to seven DRGs of 6-7 men each after placing a smoke screen west of the Cossack Camps . The enemy groups took advantage of the replacement on the front line and struck from the flank, reaching a settlement on the banks of the Dnieper. The effect of surprise and belated reaction allowed the Armed Forces of Ukraine to land and advance unhindered towards the Camps, after which the Russian troops had already driven them back. According to colleagues from this direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine went to the right bank.

And in recent days this is not the only area where the enemy is trying to gain a foothold. According to Dva Mayorov , gunfights were also noted near the railway bridge near Peschanovka , where the RF Armed Forces achieved little tactical success. Also, the activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remains near the Antonovsky bridge . The day before, the Ukrainian command sent two boats to replace units in this area. One of the boats was hit and went back, and the other was landed by the DRG, but was destroyed by fire.

In the Golopristan sector, three boats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with 15 people on board planned to establish an observation post on Domakhsky Island . Under artillery attacks, the boats turned around. One was able to get out from under the fire, and two were damaged and blown up by mines.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

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In the Bryansk region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired at the village of Kirillovka, Klimovsky district . As a result of the attack, one house was damaged, but no one was injured. In the village of Belaya Berezka, Trubchevsky District, several houses and an office building were damaged by the blow. The enemy fired at least six shells at a local plywood factory, no casualties were reported.

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Ukrainian formations made another attempt to attack the UAV. This time, the Kursk region came under attack . A Ukrainian drone is reported to have crashed on the territory of the Nikolsky Belogorsky Monastery in the village of Gornal : the buildings of the monastery were not affected, one boy received shrapnel wounds, he was provided with the necessary assistance.

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The Armed Forces of Ukraine continued to shell the border area of ​​the Belgorod region . The village of Kolotilovka in the Krasnoyarzhsky district was hit : there are reports of at least seven arrivals. Later, the village of Repyahovka came under attack , information about the destruction and victims in all settlements was not received.

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Ukrainian formations have been shelling Kremennaya almost daily for a week . As a result of the second strike on the stadium in a week, a multi-storey building and outbuildings near it were damaged. This is at least the fifth confirmed case of shelling of the city in a week, as a result of which two people were killed and four others were injured.

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The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue daily shelling of the Donetsk agglomeration and the DPR , terrorizing the local population and destroying residential buildings and infrastructure: 95 attacks were recorded, the enemy used rocket and cannon artillery, firing over 300 ammunition, including cluster-type ammunition.

At the moment, it is known about three dead and seven wounded in the Kievsky district of Donetsk . Among the latter there is a child born in 2012. It is also reported about three victims in Kuibyshevsky and one wounded in Voroshilovsky districts . The Petrovsky district of the city also came under fire .

In addition, arrivals were recorded in the settlements of Gorlovka , Makeevka , Yasinovataya , Zaitsevo , Krinichnaya . As a result of the strike of the Ukrainian MLRS on Shakhtyorsk, one person was injured. As in the case of Donetsk, the targets of the UAF attacks were civilian infrastructure, residential buildings and crowded places.

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Against the backdrop of activation on the Dnieper Islands, Ukrainian formations continue the artillery terror of the local population of the Kherson region . As a result of the shelling of Novaya Kakhovka, a fire broke out in the residential sector, which was soon extinguished. Last night, Peschanovka , Kakhovka , Cairo , Kardashinka , Aleshki and Naked Pristan were also shelled , residential infrastructure was damaged.

Political events
On Security Guarantees for Ukraine

EU Foreign Service Representative in Brussels Peter Sano said that the European Union cannot give Ukraine security guarantees. According to the official, the EU, in principle, cannot act as a guarantor of security, since it is not a defense organization, unlike NATO. “We are not a security organization. This is a discussion for NATO and individual countries, but not for the EU as an organization,” Sano said.

On the new draft law on mobilization in Ukraine

In Ukraine, they reacted in a curious way to numerous high-profile scandals with a general conscription of unfit for service: a draft law on “improving the mobilization process” was registered in the Verkhovna Rada. According to the text of the document, its authors propose sending people who are not ready to fight not to the front line, but to the construction of defensive structures and other work to ensure the functioning of the economy in wartime conditions.

If this act is adopted, the Kyiv authorities will kill two birds with one stone - they will partially reduce public discontent and at the same time create a new vein of corruption on a semi-legal payoff from mobilization. After all, as local users reasonably noted, the level of a citizen's unpreparedness for war will be clearly proportional to the amount of his contribution to the military commissar.

On the visit of the Head of the GUR of Ukraine Kirill Budanov to Bulgaria


The head of Ukrainian intelligence paid a working visit to Bulgaria and met with Defense Minister Todor Tagarev . According to Ukrainian media reports with reference to the press service of the Bulgarian Ministry of Defense, issues of regional and international security, prospects for the development of the situation in Ukraine and other mutually interesting topics were discussed.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

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U.S. GOVERNMENT ON WRONG SIDE OF UKRAINE’S WAR
SouthFront

Written by Eric Zuesse

Ukraine’s war started in February 2014, not in 2022. As NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on 9 May 2023, “The war started in 2014.” He even was explicit that “You have to remember that the war didn’t start in 2022” (which was when Russia responded on 24 February 2022 by invading Ukraine).

Here is the best short video (only ten minutes long) accurately showing in the original historic video clips how it started, and it is very clear there that the U.S. Government, U.S. President Obama, started it in February 2014, by means of a coup, which the Obama Administration had had in the planning stages for quite some time. The founder and head of the ‘private CIA’ firm Stratfor even called it “the most blatant coup in history”. The smoking-gun piece of evidence proving that it had been a coup by the U.S. Government is this recording of Obama’s mastermind of the coup, Victoria Nuland, telling Obama’s Ambassador in Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt, a month before the coup became climaxed, whom to get appointed to lead the post-coup Ukraine. And, then, the smoking-gun piece of evidence proving that even the top officials of the EU didn’t know that it had been a coup instead of the ‘democratic revolution’ that the U.S. regime claimed, is this recording of the EU’s minister of foreign affairs being told in a phone call from Kiev, by her investigator there, immediately after the coup was over, that it had been a coup. On 4 November 2019, after enough verified evidence had become known about it and about how the war in Ukraine had actually been started by the U.S. Government, I headlined “The Obama Regime’s Plan to Seize the Russian Naval Base in Crimea”, which was the only part of Obama’s plan that failed; and that article documented also how the war had been started by that coup.

So, as a matter of history now, there can be no question that Jens Stoltenberg was telling the truth when he said that “You have to remember that the war didn’t start in 2022. The war started in 2014.” But if that is all true, then you also need to ask yourself “Who started the war?” And, without any doubt at all, the answer to that question is the United States Government. In fact, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton started immediately after Viktor Yanukovych became democratically elected in 2010 as Ukraine’s President, to pressure him to bring Ukraine into EU and then NATO and he refused, and this is the reason why the planning for the coup started by no later than June 2011.

In my article “The Obama Regime’s Plan to Seize the Russian Naval Base in Crimea”, I linked to all of the key items of evidence so that any reader can, on one’s own, verify all of these things. They are, by now, clear history, nothing that is rationally disputable.

On 2 August 2023, the U.S. propaganda agency Newsweek headlined “U.S. Troops Should be Sent to Ukraine, Third of Americans Say”, and reported an alleged poll — though without linking to it or otherwise verifying that it existed or anything about its methodology if it did — that “A total of 31 percent of eligible voters in the U.S. support or strongly support American military forces heading to the battlefields of Ukraine, polling conducted exclusively for Newsweek by Redfield & Wilton Strategies has revealed.” Even if the poll existed, and if it was scientifically done, and it found that 31% did support sending U.S. troops into the battlefield of Ukraine to wage war against Russia there in that country which borders Russia, then what national-security interest of the American people would be served by the U.S. Government’s doing that? Would it not instead enormously endanger us? If America’s trooops there would win a conventional war there against Russia, then would not Russia escalate the conflict there on Russia’s very borders, raise it by going nuclear against the U.S., in order to prevent the U.S. Government from placing its nuclear missiles only a five-minute flying time away from blitz-nuking The Kremlin?

On 5 August 2023, I headlined and documented that the “IMF Has ‘Loaned’ $115B to Ukraine Without Requiring Any Proof Where It Went”, but the U.S. Government and its taxpayers have lent and donated far more than that to Ukraine, and if even the IMF (of which America’s Government is the top financial backer) is constantly postponing any audit of its ‘investments’ there, then how could things be any better for the ‘investments’ and donations by America’s taxpayers in Ukraine?

According to the U.S. Government and its agents and allies, the war in Ukraine started by “Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022” and by “Russia’s illegal and unprovoked war against Ukraine” — and anything which would contradict that is mere ‘fake news’ which the social media and the traditional ‘news’ media ought to filter out so that the public won’t get to see or hear any such ‘Russian disinformation’. But even they cannot filter out (far less outright deny) the NATO Secretary General’s having said on 9 May 2023 that “the war didn’t start in 2022. The war started in 2014.”

America’s Government is one the wrong side of the war in Ukraine — the side of the aggressor. Where Stoltenberg lied there was when he continued by saying, “And since then, NATO has implemented the biggest reinforcement of our collective defense since the end of the Cold War.” Obviously, the U.S. Government’s being the aggressor means that its military alliance against Russia is not “collective defense” in this war but is instead collective offense in it — the aggressors. That is what makes all of them be on the side of the aggressor, on the side of the nation that started the war.

To the extent that this information is not publishable in those nations, it’s proof of the given nation’s being a dictatorship — controlled behind-the-scenes by the very same ultimate rulers who also control its news media and censor-out this information, and call this information by such phrases as ‘Russian disinformation’.

https://southfront.org/u-s-government-o ... aines-war/

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Western allies receive increasingly ‘sobering’ updates on Ukraine’s counteroffensive: ‘This is the most difficult time of the war’

By Jim Sciutto, Chief National Security Correspondent
Updated 8:19 AM EDT, Tue August 8, 2023

Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and western officials briefed on the latest intelligence told CNN.

“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.

“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”

The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.

“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”

A senior US official said the US recognizes the difficulties Ukrainian forces are facing, though retains hope for renewed progress.

“We all recognize this is going harder and slower than anyone would like – including the Ukrainians – but we still believe there’s time and space for them to be able make progress,” this official said.

Multiple officials said the approach of fall, when weather and fighting conditions are expected to worsen, gives Ukrainian forces a limited window to push forward.

In addition, Western officials say the slow progress has exposed the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into combined mechanized fighting units, sometimes with as few as eight weeks of training on western-supplied tanks and other new weapons systems. The lack of progress on the ground is one reason Ukrainian forces have been striking more often inside Russian territory “to try and show Russian vulnerability,” said a senior US military official.

Ukraine’s armed forces chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, told US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley that Ukrainian forces are step by step creating conditions for advancing. Zaluzhnyi added that he had told Milley that Ukraine’s defenses were steadfast.

“Our soldiers are doing their best. The enemy is conducting active assault actions in a number of directions, but is not succeeding,” Zaluzhnyi told Milley, according to a read out issued by the Ukrainian government.

Talking about the situation in the south, where Ukrainian forces have struggled to gain ground, Zaluzhnyi said, “Heavy fighting continues, Ukrainian troops step by step continue to create conditions for advancing. The initiative is on our side.”

These latest assessments represent a marked change from the optimism at the start of the counteroffensive. These officials say those expectations were “unrealistic” and are now contributing to pressure on Ukraine from some in the West to begin peace negotiations, including considering the possibility of territorial concessions.

“Putin is waiting for this. He can sacrifice bodies and buy time,” Quigley said.

Some officials fear the widening gap between expectations and results will spark a “blame game” among Ukrainian officials and their western supporters, which may create divisions within the alliance which has remained largely intact nearly two years into the war.

“The problem, of course, here is the prospect of the blame game that the Ukrainians would then blame it on us,” said a senior western diplomat.

Last month at the Aspen Security Forum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pointed to the slow arrival of more advanced weapons systems from the West as reason for Ukrainian forces’ slow progress so far.

“We did plan to start [the counteroffensive] in spring, but we didn’t,” Zelensky said. “Because frankly, we have not enough munitions, and armaments, and not enough properly trained brigades. I mean properly trained in these weapons.”

https://us.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ ... index.html

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The military-industrial complex in the West is growing 2 times faster than the economy

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August 8, 16:30


The military-industrial complex in the West is growing 2 times faster than the economy

The revenue of the top 25 military-industrial corporations in the West in 2023 will be $448 billion, which will be $47 billion (or 10%) more than a year earlier, Equality calculated according to company reporting. By 2026, against the background of deliveries to Kiev and rearmament in Europe, they want to add another $107 billion (24%) - up to $554 billion.
As a result, for 2021-2026. military-industrial complex corporations will increase revenues by $150 billion, or 37%. At the same time, the economy of developed countries by 2026 will grow 2 times slower, the IMF predicts.

https://t.me/ravenstvomedia/241 - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8553633.html

In Mariupol got rid of the "monument to the Holodomor"
August 8, 14:57

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In Mariupol, they got rid of the "monument to the Holodomor" established during the Ukrainian occupation of Mariupol.

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https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8553404.html

Grain for rubles
August 9, 5:56 am

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Against the backdrop of Russia's withdrawal from the "grain deal" and the destruction of the Ukrainian port infrastructure, they finally matured to the transfer of grain trade for rubles. The scheme is somewhat reminiscent of similar schemes that exist for trading in oil and gas. Now the currency must be sent to a special Russian bank, to buy rubles there, and after that, for these rubles, buy grain in Russia. Thus, at least part of the trade is removed from the pressure of sanctions, and the country maintains a stable inflow of foreign currency.

Similar schemes need to be expanded to other strategic export industries that the US is trying to limit with sanctions pressure.

PS. There is almost no talk about "convoys to Odessa" now - the West is now busy restructuring overland routes for the export of grain from Ukraine to Europe.
Turkey's grain terminal also exploded "very on time", which also affects the prospects for a grain deal.
I believe that new formats for grain trade between Turkey and the Russian Federation will be discussed at the meeting between Putin and Erdogan next month. The Turks really want the old / new agreement to support their economic pants - the lira continues to pour in and from an economic point of view, Turkey continues to be the "sick man of Europe / Asia", which of course is discordant with Erdogan's military-political ambitions - all his conquests and successes have an important nuance - they stand on an extremely shaky economic foundation, so Erdogan is trying with all his might to receive geshefts from both Russia and the West and make his country a communication and logistics hub in relations between the warring parties. If we discard sympathies / antipathies for Erdogan, then this is a reasonable approach from the point of view of Turkey's interests, which Russia, of course, can also use to its advantage, using Turkey for the provided gesheft as a trade and economic gateway through which the country receives, among other things, sanctioned goods, and part of Russian goods continues to enter Western markets under the Turkish sign, nullifying Western sanctions in many respects. In this plane, the prospects for new agreements between Putin and Erdogan (despite all the if and but) are very significant. With the full understanding that it is better not to turn your back on "friend Rejep" - this changeable and extremely opportunistic nature painfully loves to poke a scimitar into other people's backs. Recently, Macron poked.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8554799.html

Google Translator

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NATO FUELS WAR TO THE LAST UKRAINIAN

The West is ready to launch new wave of military supplies to Ukraine, while the Kiev’s military is defeated on the frontlines. The long-awaited counteroffensive failed but NATO does not stop and is rearming Ukrainian servicemen with new “game-changing” weapons for more offensive operation in autumn.

The US assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology Douglas Ross Bush declared that over the weekend the first batch of Abrams tanks was finally approved for shipment to Ukraine. The tanks together with all necessary equipment should arrive by the beginning of autumn.

Although various sources report that more than a dozen Abrams tanks are already in Ukraine.

Kiev will not receive the M1A2 modification but more obsolete M1A1s. 31 tanks are intended for Ukraine. This correspond to one tank battalion. In the current situation, this is not enough to compensate the large losses of the Ukrainian military.

European allies are also not far behind Washington. French President Macron has recently promised to send long-range SCALP missiles from the reserves of the French army.

In its turn, Germany is preparing to transfer long-range Taurus cruise missiles. Earlier Berlin officially denied such a possibility, but after the British Storm Shadow system was deployed with the Ukrainian military, sending the Taurus missiles was just a matter of time.

According to Bundestag, only 150 of the 600 missiles are now in working condition; but the shortage does not stop Berlin, and in fact, Ukrainian bombers have been getting refitted for the deployment of these German-Swedish-made missiles.

The transfer of the Taurus will expand the Ukrainian arsenal of precision weapons and increase the range of destruction of targets up to 500 km. However, the limited number of missiles and remaining bombers from the Ukrainian Air Force will not allow them to be used en masse, but only to deliver single targeted strikes. At least until NATO sends its warplanes to Ukraine.

In response, the Russian military continues pre-emptive strikes in the Ukrainian rear areas. Warehouses in the Khmelnitsky and Rivne regions, where British Storm Shadow missiles were likely stored, were recently destroyed.

While Kiev proudly declares that the supply of new advanced weapons will lead it to victory, just as Javelins, Bayraktars, Leopards did, NATO is trying its best to force the Ukrainians to continue the slaughter, protecting the interests of the Western “blooming garden”.

https://southfront.org/nato-fuels-war-u ... ukrainian/

UKRAINIAN REAR IS BURNING

After another attempt by Kiev’s forces to break through the Russian defenses on the southern frontlines with major forces failed, the conflict in Ukraine escalated. The Ukrainian military is regularly striking the Russian territory with foreign missiles and drones. In their turn, Russian forces do not stop their wave of precision strikes on the strategic military facilities throughout Ukraine.

Over the past days, Russian forces conducted powerful combined attacks with Geran UAVs, Kinzhal, Kalibr and X-101 missiles. One of the targets was the military airfield near Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnitsky region, where the Ukrainian SU-24 carriers of Storm Shadow missiles are stationed. As a result of the missile strikes, the hangar, the parking lot, the elevator, an underground facility and parking with obsolete aircraft were damaged.

Since August 5th, workshops of the plant used for repair of Ukrainian armored vehicles were attacked in Kharkiv. The local House of Culture in Kupyansk used for the accommodation of the Ukrainian military was destroyed. In Zaporozhye, a missile depot was destroyed and an airfield with hangars was damaged. Zelensky acknowledged the strike on the Motor Sich plant. In the Rivne region, an ammunition depot and an airbase in Dubno were destroyed. Logistics terminals near the border with Moldova burned down in Vinnytsia. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, the fuel and ammunition warehouse at a railway junction was struck in Kamensk. Explosions thundered in the Kiev and Zhitomir regions.

In their turn, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue attempts to disrupt the supply of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the southern frontlines.

On August 6, Ukrainian forces struck the Chongar and Tonky automobile bridges between Crimea and the Kherson region with Storm Shadow cruise missiles. According to the local authorities, in total, 12 missiles were launched and 9 of them were intercepted by Russian air defense forces. One man was injured.

In addition, Ukrainian formations launched another drone attack on Moscow. It failed and the drone was shot down on approach to the capital near Podolsk. Russian air defenses also intercepted two drones over the Bryansk region. On the night of August 7, another Ukrainian UAV was shot down over the Kaluga region.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to terrorize civilians in the regions it lost and in the Russian border villages. On August 5, Ukrainian militants heavily shelled the center of Donetsk with cluster munitions. At least four civilians were killed over the past two days, dozens more were wounded.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military continues attacks on the Bakhmut and Zaporozhye frontlines. Ukrainian armored groups with tanks and light military equipment attempt offensive operations in the area of Berhovka west of Bakhmut, and near Rabotino in the area of Orekhov. Suffering more losses, the Ukrainian army achieved no victories.

https://southfront.org/ukrainian-rear-is-burning/

ABRAMS TANKS NOT A “GAME CHANGER” FOR UKRAINE

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Written by Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant

In yet another irresponsible step in the conflict, the US is about to send its first batch of Abrams tanks to Ukraine. The announcement shows how NATO remains willing to escalate its war against Russia and take it to the ultimate consequences. However, the real effects of the measure on the battlefield will be minimal, since there is no expectation of reversal in the military scenario.

The move was announced on August 1 by Doug Bush, the US Army Acquisition Chief, during an interview with CNN journalists. He stated that the first batch of Abrams tanks is now ready for delivery to Kiev. First, the vehicles will arrive in Europe and from there they will be sent to Ukraine, as well as all the necessary equipment for their use.

“They are done (…) Now they have to get to Europe, and then to Ukraine, along with all of the things that go with them. Ammunition, spare parts, fuel equipment, repair facilities. So you know, it’s not just the tanks, it’s the full package that goes with it. That’s still on track”, he said.

Currently, Ukrainian troops are being trained by NATO’s instructors to learn how to handle Abrams tanks. The ten-week training program will conclude at the end of August, with vehicles expected to arrive in September.

In fact, it is no surprise that these weapons are being sent, as promises in this regard have been made by the US government since January. However, apparently Ukrainian expectations are not being fully met. It was expected that 31 Abrams tanks would be sent to Kiev, but according to Politico the most likely is that only between six and eight vehicles will arrive in the country.

Not only the quantity, but also the quality of the tanks was diminished. The Pentagon had previously said it planned to help Ukraine with Abrams M1A2 tanks, however it changed its strategy in March, opting for the M1A1, which is an older model. Furthermore, it was recently reported by the Western media that the US is decreasing the M1A1’s capabilities by eliminating any technology deemed “sensitive” before delivering them to Kiev.

It was said by sources familiar with the topic that the tanks might “lose some of their most sophisticated electronics before seeing combat in Ukraine”. Among the equipment removed are artillery technology resources and depleted uranium armor. In practice, this shows that, although it is helping Ukraine, the US does not “trust” Kiev’s troops and tries to prevent them from “stealing” its military technology.

This reduction in the quality of the tanks makes it even more difficult for them to bring about any real change in the conflict. More likely, the arrival of the Abrams will have the same null effect on the battlefield as the US Bradleys and Germany’s Leopards.

For the Russians, the existence of a large number of enemy armored vehicles has little relevance, since Moscow’s defense lines are sufficiently fortified to neutralize Ukrainian advances with any type of tank. So, most likely the Abrams will also be easy targets for Russian artillery, air force and minefields.

Obviously, for the western media what actually matters is to spread the narrative that every new NATO weapon sent to Ukraine will be a “game changer”. Now, Western journalists are optimistic that the Abrams will help Kiev in the current “counteroffensive” by “breaking entrenched defenses”.

“The arrival of the tanks in the coming weeks will add a new, lethal dimension to Ukraine’s inventory as its forces struggle to break through entrenched Russian defenses along a front line that stretches for hundreds of miles”, Politico says.

However, from a realistic point of view, this is nothing more than unsubstantiated propaganda. The Ukrainian counteroffensive cannot go from absolute failure to sudden victory with the mere arrival of a new tank, simply because tanks do not win wars alone. The technical apparatus of a country at war is important, but it is just one of the factors involved in a military campaign. There are also many other points to be considered, such as strategic planning, tactical-operational strength, troops’ morale and capacity to replace losses. In all these sectors Ukraine has serious weaknesses, despite receiving Western weapons systematically. And it is for this reason that the “counteroffensive” tends to fail regardless of any foreign help.

The only thing new weapons can do to conflict is escalate and prolong it. The more Western equipment arrives in Ukraine, the longer the fighting will last, and the more incisive Russian military measures will have to be in order to neutralize the enemy side. In other words, in addition to not being able to reverse the military scenario of the conflict in favor of its proxy, NATO is simply unnecessarily increasing the suffering of the Ukrainian people.

https://southfront.org/abrams-tanks-not ... r-ukraine/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Thu Aug 10, 2023 12:01 pm

lessons of war
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 08/10/2023

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"Weeks after the start of the long-awaited counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly 'sobering' assessments of Ukrainian forces' ability to recapture a significant amount of territory, they have reported to CNN .four high-ranking Western and American officials with access to the latest intelligence reports”, the important American outlet wrote this week, referring to the progress of military operations on the southern front. Posed as the definitive battle for the Sea of ​​Azov, Ukrainian troops continue trying to advance meter by meter and coast, according to what has been read in various Western media, of enormous casualties, towards villages unknown until a few months ago such as Rabotino or Urozhainoe. What was also going to be an offensive that would definitively show the infinite superiority of Western weapons over Russian weapons has been somewhat ugly due to the images of tanks and armored vehicles of all kinds of origins -Russian and Western- abandoned.

Two months and no success later, Ukraine and its partners are looking for explanations as well as solutions. From the first weeks, as the commanders on the ground also confirmed, it was obvious that Kiev had changed tactics to opt for smaller and more mobile groups in the face of the armored columns with which it naively intended to break the Russian front without falling into the most What an expected barrier of anti-tank mines. This change in strategy has not yielded results either and even in the most promising places, for example the flanks of Artyomovsk, Ukraine has not yet managed to consolidate any serious advance. Yesterday, Russian sources, who for weeks have described the situation as tense, showed first counteroffensive attempts. There, too, the triumphalism of a few weeks ago has disappeared, in which Ukraine gave Arytomovsk a semi-encirclement and the 3rd Brigade of the Ukrainian Army, led by Andriy Biletsky, promised to finish off the Russian troops. Now withdrawn from that front, in the press reports the brigade now promises revenge, a sign that the plan has not turned out as initially expected.

"We all recognize that it is being harder and slower than we all - including the Ukrainians - would like, but we still believe that there is time and space for them to make progress," says one of the sources quoted by CNN .. Only Ukrainian officers as attached to propaganda as Mikhailo Podolyak try to keep up appearances by claiming that “offensive operations continue” and demanding that no attention be paid to the directions or speed of the operation and instead focus on “ closely monitor the high quality of the work of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”. Yesterday, one of the almost daily Ukrainian bombardments killed several civilians, including a four-year-old girl. A few days ago, the high quality of Ukrainian work destroyed the Donetsk University's Finance Faculty, hours after shelling a residential street in another neighborhood of Donbass' main city with its artillery. Reports of civilian casualties in residential neighborhoods of the city are daily.

Neither the consequences nor the difficulties have managed to subdue the Ukrainian propaganda discourse, which, as Mikhailo Podolyak wrote again yesterday, will lead the Ukrainian troops to "the obligatory and just conclusion." Volodymyr Zelesnky has manifested himself along the same lines, although in his case he has come to implicitly admit the difficulties his army is facing. However, neither the lack of progress nor the loss of personnel and material are cause for concern. Zelensky's reasoning is not based on the prompt arrival of the US Abrams, whose shipment has already been approved, but on the morale of the troops. Two months after the start of a counter-offensive in which for months it was assumed that Russian troops would not be able to defend themselves, the Ukrainian president, perhaps reading the minds of his own soldiers and those of others, he affirms that "we have fatigue in our eyes while the Russians are only afraid." That is not what has been shown in the last eight weeks, but the Very low morale of Russian regular troops and conscripts continues to be the argument repeated by officers and experts.

With a little more seriousness, some Western media have begun to investigate an aspect hitherto ignored. For a year now, Western countries, especially the UK, have bragged about the results they expected the training of Ukrainian soldiers abroad to achieve. According to British media, London is preparing Ukrainian troops for the assault on Crimea and a few days ago, the UK Ministry of Defense's social media profiles announced that they had already trained 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers. However, the shadow of doubt is beginning to fall on these accelerated training programs from the most unexpected places. This week it has been possible to read, for example, the difficulties that are emerging for the program of training Ukrainian pilots in the use of the much desired American F-16s, training that Oleksiy Reznikov has heralded as big news on several occasions. Ukraine has already selected 32 candidates. Kiev's hope rested on the Ukrainian ability to acquire the skill of handling the equipment in a limited period limited to half of the usual instruction, something that seems not to be possible. Of the selected pilots, only eight are able to communicate in English, the language in which the instruction is carried out, so before beginning their training they must go through the language academy. Kiev's hope rested on the Ukrainian ability to acquire the skill of handling the equipment in a limited period limited to half of the usual instruction, something that does not seem to be possible.

Nor does short-term training seem like the most lucid idea, not only because of the complexity of the pilot's job or because of how vulnerable these aircraft are going to be in the face of Russian anti-aircraft defenses, especially in the hands of beginner pilots. As media such as The New York Times or openDemocracy have reflected this week , none of them suspected of pro-Russian sympathies, the training of soldiers may be one of the shortcomings that are hindering the Ukrainian offensive. In a report on newly arrived troops on the second line of the Kupyansk front, where Russian troops are slowly advancing towards some of the positions they disorderly abandoned eleven months ago, openDemocracy states that "Ukrainian soldiers are left with little preparation for the realities of the Russian war due to the disconnect between NATO and national military training." The article mentions the shortness of the training period and focuses on aspects that are not what the soldiers themselves would have expected. One of the complaints of the Ukrainian soldiers is, for example, the lack of preparation acquired in the essential task of demining. One of the sources cited refers to a field of practice mines of a couple of meters and an instruction of no more than two hours, a little preparation considering that it was foreseeable that the Russian Federation would have mined the fields of the first line of the Zaporozhye front, as did Ukraine throughout the country in 2022.

In that line, an article published by The New York Times was shown., which, although without much criticism of the West, admitted that the soldiers are being prepared for a war that differs notably from the theory studied. Beyond the excuse of the difficulties caused by the minefields, something that both Kiev and London and Washington should have foreseen, the American media focuses on the problems of American instructors to prepare troops that lack basic aspects. “For the Western approach to work effectively, you need all the elements and a key element is air power,” says Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a retired colonel in the British army, returning to a point that has been evident since the beginning of the discussion of the Ukrainian spring counteroffensive. Already then it was evident that the long-awaited Western aviation was going to be absent from the military operation and that the Ukrainian aircraft and helicopters were going to face the Russian anti-aircraft defenses with no chance of imposing on Ukraine the necessary air superiority for a deep advance in open field. Politicians such as Boris Johnson then proposed that long-range missiles replace aviation, an absurd comment typical of those who intend to use their proxy army to achieve their own objectives without worrying about the consequences.

Ukraine is facing a war that has nothing to do with those that the countries that now train their army have fought in recent decades. NATO has always relied on overwhelming air supremacy and significant firepower superiority in its wars and has always fought from a clear imbalance of forces. The difference with the current war between two modern armies, well armed and ready to fight, was perceived many months ago by the American mercenaries who arrived in Ukraine in the first months of the Russo-Ukrainian war and understood the feeling of being on the other side of the artillery from an industrial powerhouse, something they had not experienced in Afghanistan or Iraq. However, Western arrogance continues to consider his excellent instruction an infallible weapon. This is how the political class sees it, at least. A few days ago, Blinken pinned his hopes on the entry into combat of foreign-trained brigades. These soldiers are already seeing the gaps in Western training, as will those who have been trained in the art of trench warfare by countries like the United Kingdom, whose most recent experience dates back to the world wars of the last century, instead of his own army, hardened for nine years in the Donbass fortifications.

No surprises, the new revelations have not led to a more realistic assessment of the war, but to raise the stakes in search of an even tougher war and in which ATACMS missiles and F-16 aircraft finally come into play, anything to avoid lowering expectations or admitting the possibility that Ukraine will not be able to defeat Russia, a defeat that, given the involvement of NATO countries, should be considered collective.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/08/10/lecci ... more-27897

Google Translator

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Chronicle of the special military operation for August 9, 2023
August 9, 2023
Rybar

Fighting continues along the entire front line. In the Kupyansky sector, the Russian Armed Forces have the initiative, developing an offensive in the direction of Kupyansk . The enemy defends fiercely. The constant work of artillery and aviation is bearing fruit, according to some reports, Russian forces were able to advance.

Heavy fighting is taking place near Bakhmut . They are attacking the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kleshcheevka area , trying to occupy and gain a foothold at key heights. The RF Armed Forces repulse enemy attacks with concentrated artillery fire.

A similar situation is in the area of ​​the Vremevsky salient . The enemy is constantly attacking Urozhayne under the cover of artillery and tank fire. The difficult situation remains near Rabotino , where the assault detachments of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to penetrate the defense between Rabotino and Novopokrovka .

The artillery terror of the regions of Russia continues. In the Belgorod , Zaporizhia regions , as well as in the DPR , there are dead and wounded civilians, residential and civilian infrastructure was damaged.

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UAV night raid on Moscow

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Ukrainian formations once again tried to strike UAVs at Moscow . According to Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, there were no casualties.

According to reports on the Web, the UAVs took off from the Sumy region last night. Two drones were shot down in the Moscow region. One is in the Odintsovo district not far from the Minsk highway, the second is not far from Domodedovo near the village of Molokovo .

The situation on the front line and the fighting
In the Kupyansk area , the Russian Armed Forces are successful. Artillery is actively working, working on enemy-controlled Sinkovka , Kruglyakovka and Podil . According to some reports, several assault groups managed to enter Sinkovka, but there is no confirmation of the information at the moment.

Fighting is underway in the Masyutovka area , Russian forces are advancing in the direction of the R-79 highway to Kupyansk. The enemy stubbornly defends himself despite the difficulties with supplies and reserves that have arisen as a result of the active work of the Aerospace Forces and artillery.

At the same time, Andrey Kanashevich , the head of the Ukrainian Kupyansky administration , called on the residents of the Kupyansky district to evacuate , which directly confirms the difficulties that the Armed Forces of Ukraine face in defense.

Heavy fighting continues in Kleshcheevka near Bakhmut . The enemy is making attempts to storm the heights in order to enter the operational space.

Russian units put up fierce resistance, preventing Ukrainian formations from occupying advantageous positions, adjusting the work of artillery and mortars from drones.

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In the Yuzhnodonetsk direction, all yesterday, Ukrainian formations continued to roll up to the village of Urozhaynoye in the Vremievsky sector . The attacks practically did not stop. Moreover, this time heavy armored vehicles were also involved.

Closer to midnight, the combined assault groups of marines of the 35th, 36th and 37th brigades, which had previously been deployed to the north of the village, as well as to the northwest of Staromayorsky , began another assault on the lines of the RF Armed Forces.

Fire support from closed firing positions was carried out by tanks of the 1st Tank Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As a result of the battles, the Ukrainian troops managed to occupy strongholds on the northern outskirts of Urozhayne , where a massive blow was dealt to them. Damaged armor remained in the area, but infantry groups are still active at this point.

Attacks are almost guaranteed to resume in the near future to consolidate at the turn. And, given the transfer of the Marines to the landings northwest of Staromayorsky, the offensive will also be on the positions of the RF Armed Forces in important forest belts near the village. However, the losses of the enemy are already significant. Yes, they are replenished and understaffed, but the situation worsens with each attack. To help, according to the Warrior of the Far East , one unit of the 15th brigade of the Kara-Dag National Guard was transferred from Orekhov to Bolshaya Novoselka .

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Late in the evening on the Orekhovsky sector yesterday and on the night of August 9, combined assault units of the 46th detachment of infantry regiments, with the support of the 15th brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, once again attacked the positions of the RF Armed Forces east of Rabotino . Before that, the sappers of the two brigades removed the minefields and went on the attack with the task of penetrating the defenses 400 meters between the two villages. As a result of the fighting, the Armed Forces of Ukraine entrenched 3 km east of Rabotino.


At the moment, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are awaiting the transfer of reinforcements to this area. The remnants of the 15th detachment of the NGU were withdrawn to the second line due to losses. And in Malaya Tokmachka, units of the 118th brigade of the 10th AK of the Armed Forces of Ukraine arrived.

The Ukrainian formations did not achieve their initial goals, but were able to gain a foothold in a stronghold that had previously been in the gray zone. Now the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is striking at the front line, supporting the infantry with fire. In addition, it is curious how the Ukrainian pilots began to operate. Tactical aircraft fly right next to the front line with their on-board equipment turned off, probably trying to figure out the location of air defense systems for their subsequent destruction of the HIMARS MLRS.

In the Kherson direction, the situation remains tense. After the enemy's sortie into the area of ​​the Cossack Camps , and, according to some reports, rolled back, the enemy did not make new attempts to force the river. However, the threat of new sorties and landings remains. The enemy maneuvers with reserves, the sides are engaged in artillery duels and mutual reconnaissance.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

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The daily shelling of the Belgorod region continues . In the morning the enemy shelled Kolotilovka and Spodaryushino . At least twice Moore was under enemy fire . In Kolotilovka, a man received shrapnel wounds in the morning. In the village of Gorkovsky , Grayvoron District, the enemy fired five shells at a school. One person died on the spot from shrapnel wounds, four more were injured. Air defense worked over the Shebekinsky district in the evening, there are no consequences on the ground. Local residents also reported shelling of the Pankov farm , but there were no reports of casualties or damage.

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The Armed Forces of Ukraine began to massively use cluster munitions against civilians and civilian infrastructure in the Donetsk People's Republic . The enemy fired over 250 shells, of which more than ten were cluster shells, which wounded two people and killed two more people in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk , including a four-year-old girl. One man died in the Kuibyshev region, two more civilians were injured in the Kiev region, they were provided with the necessary medical assistance.

In Svetlodarsk, as a result of a direct hit by a rocket in a house from a HIMARS MLRS , one woman died on the spot from shrapnel wounds, eight more people were injured of varying severity. In Gorlovka in the Central City district, school No. 55 and adjacent houses received extensive damage. Makiivka , Zaitsevo , Yasinovataya and Staromikhaylovka were hit throughout the day : there was no information about the wounded and injured, at the moment the shelling of the entire Donetsk agglomeration continues.

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In the afternoon, Ukrainian formations attacked the village of Trudovoye in the Tokmak district of the Zaporozhye region . Four civilians were killed by enemy fire, and three more were injured.

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The artillery terror of the settlements on the left bank of the Kherson region continues. Under enemy fire throughout the night was the civilian infrastructure of Kakhovka , Nova Kakhovka , Cossack Camps , Bolshaya Lepetikha and Peschanovka , in total, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired 30 shells.

Political events
Statements by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on the actions of the collective West

The collective West is waging a hybrid war against Russia , providing unprecedented support to the puppet Kiev regime.

Since last February, Ukraine has received hundreds of tanks, more than 4,000 armored fighting vehicles, more than 1,000 artillery pieces, and dozens of modern MLRS and Western-made air defense installations worth over $160 billion .

The West is ready to continue to invest significant resources in Ukraine to try to turn the course of the conflict in its favor.

The United States and allies continue to build up their military presence, providing Ukraine with deadly weapons, transferring British Storm Shadow guided missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in May.

The United States committed a war crime and handed over world-banned cluster munitions. NATO countries plan to transfer F-16 tactical fighters to Ukraine.

Statements by the head of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the actions of Poland

Poland becomes the main ally of the United States in promoting anti-Russian policy in the region, striving to create the most powerful army in the world by conducting large-scale purchases of Western military equipment. The plans of the Poles include the creation of a Polish-Ukrainian military formation with the aim of supposedly protecting the western borders of Ukraine, but the real goal is the occupation of these territories, Sergei Shoigu said.

It should be noted that such intentions have been nurtured in Warsaw since last year, and more recently officials have been talking about this almost directly. At the July NATO summit, President Andrzej Duda announced the possibility of sending an Alliance mission to Ukraine, in which Polish military personnel could take part.

Already now there are no fundamental obstacles to this: Poland is actively militarizing and massively purchasing military equipment abroad, and the size of the current armed forces is quite enough for such an operation. The question is only in the form of intervention and the number of forces involved.

About the German military aid package for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The German defense department announced the transfer of two launchers from the Patriot air defense system, smoke shells, binoculars and anti-fragmentation goggles. Delivery of ten Bandvagn 206 tracked vehicles , four Vector reconnaissance UAVs and other wheeled vehicles with equipment is expected.

On the supply of weapons from Switzerland

Documents from the Swiss Foreign Ministry on the ways of supplying weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine have appeared on the Web . As the warehouses of European countries were exhausted, the issue of possible re-export of Swiss military-industrial products was repeatedly raised in the EU, but Bern refused to take such a step, citing a policy of neutrality.

According to published data, the country found a way out of the situation in the form of a “ring exchange” mechanism . According to it, Switzerland will send property not to Ukraine, but to replenish the arsenals of European states with it. In practice, it will look like this: for example, Latvia transfers armored vehicles to the Kiev regime, and in return receives a Swiss-made Piranha III infantry fighting vehicle .

Such an approach, at least at first glance, does not contradict local legally enshrined neutrality and allows freeing up additional stocks of European countries for the Armed Forces. And Switzerland also gets the opportunity to earn by selling weapons for money, which the EU gives away to Ukrainians for free.

About the fate of the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra

The Economic Court of Kyiv today upheld the termination of the agreement on the lease of the premises of the Lower Lavra of the UOC, which was adopted by the Ministry of Culture of Ukraine at the end of March. After losing in the trial court, representatives of the canonical church are likely to appeal the decision.

At the same time, the commission of the Ministry of Culture of Ukraine ordered that the UOC leave the four buildings of the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra, which includes rooms for guests and church shops, by ten in the morning tomorrow , in order to further seal them. This policy is nothing else than the consistent eviction of monks from the premises they previously occupied for the exploitation of these premises by schismatics.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

(Other images at link.)

Who does not remember his past is doomed to relive it again
August 9, 2023
Warsaw Mermaid

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In the Polish city of Szczecin, a memorial was demolished in memory of the Soviet and Polish soldiers who liberated the country from fascism.
The dismantling of the “last communist symbol in the city” was broadcast live by the Institute of National Memory of Poland. Its head, Pavel Navrotsky, said that the monument is an object of propaganda and "should not stand in Szczecin."

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The memorial "To those who died in the battles for Dombe" was erected in 1962 in memory of the soldiers who died in 1945 during the battles for the liberation of the eastern districts of the city. The monument in the form of an obelisk with figures of two soldiers is located on the main road in the center of the square.

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600,000 Soviet soldiers gave their lives for the liberation of Polish land from Nazi invaders .

https://rybar.ru/kto-ne-pomnit-svoego-p ... -ego-vnov/

How Poland justifies the demand for reparations from Germany
August 9, 2023

Warsaw claims that the agreement was signed under pressure from the USSR and concerned only the defunct German Democratic Republic and the Polish People's Republic, which, according to local analysts, was not a sovereign state.
Berlin repeatedly reminded Warsaw that in 1953 the Poles had signed a waiver of reparations. And in general: within the framework of the EU community, the Germans deduct the most money, and Poland is also their recipient.

After the publication of a report with claims against Germany for 1.3 trillion dollars, the Poles said: there is no piece of paper from 1953 anywhere. The Polish authorities indicated that the government had analyzed all the arguments of the German side, and no government decision regarding Poland's decision to refuse damages was found.

In addition, according to the Polish Constitution adopted in 1952, the then Council of Ministers "was not empowered to make such a regulation". It could be adopted either by the State Council or the Seimas, but neither of the two institutions issued such a document. And this is another proof that the Poles have not given up on war reparations.

The only evidence (according to Warsaw) that the rejection took place is an article in the Communist daily Trybuna Ludu, published on August 24, 1953.

Sanctions against the Russian Federation and the confiscation of Russian assets in the West put the German authorities in a precarious position and created a precedent that allows the Poles to violate earlier agreements.

There is an opinion in the countries of Western Europe that the United States, taking advantage of the Ukrainian conflict, is rapidly pumping weapons into Poland and nurturing revanchist sentiments in order to weaken Germany and deprive the EU of the remnants of independence.

It was Germany and its industrial sector that became one of the main victims of sanctions against Russia. The former unwillingness of Berlin to join the restrictions on the supply of energy resources from the Russian Federation showed the peculiar limits of the Germans.

In France or Germany, Russia was seen as an actor to be dealt with within the framework of the European order. And now this position, primarily under the influence of the United States and Great Britain, is being marginalized in every possible way and equated with anti-European. At the same time, it is Poland that is promoting an aggressive policy of “threat prevention” and “strategic containment of Russia”.

This strategy can become a “suicide vest” for the Polish government: in the event of an aggravation of the conflict, Poland and the Baltic states will be sacrificed after Ukraine, if a threat to the existence of Russia comes from there.

https://rybar.ru/chem-obosnovyvaet-pols ... konflikta/

Google Translator

The historical propensity of the Poles to 'step on their own meat' is not diminished....piss off both the Germans and the Russians, that's a plan!

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Why Ukraine’s counteroffensive is failing/Live Discussion/WION
August 9, 2023

This morning a journalist in the Mumbai studios of the Indian television broadcaster WION offered me the opportunity to explain in a 10 minute live interview what the Russian perspective is on the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive to date. This took in why the Ukrainians have not met their own and US-NATO expectations on the battlefield, whether this failure will lead to a ‘blame game’ that splits the Western alliance supporting Ukraine and what we may anticipate as the next developments in the conflict in the coming months.

I am delighted that this premier English language broadcaster sees value in bringing to its global audience what the Russian side is thinking and saying. Let us remember that WION has 7.7 million subscribers on youtube. The viewer figures in the first three hours after the interview was posted on the internet are already 10,000 and demonstrate that there is a strong appetite in the “international community” for news and analysis that deal with the views of all sides to an issue, not just government handouts from one side.

See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3iCBKD1GS9c

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/08/09/ ... sion-wion/

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Declassified Files Expose UK Cluster Munition Hypocrisy
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on AUGUST 9, 2023
Kit Klarenberg

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The UK armed forces can do almost anything they like with cluster bombs – while evading legal consequences – as long as it’s someone or something else ultimately deploying them.

Joe Biden’s decision to transfer cluster bombs to Kiev has sparked widespread public controversy, and strained previously indomitable NATO unity on responding to Russia’s invasion, with member state leaders lining up to criticize the move. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been the most vocally condemnatory, discouraging both transfer and use of the widely-proscribed munition, and firmly declaring London will not follow Washington’s lead in supplying Ukraine.

The intensely public rift prompted Biden to make a brief layover in London on July 10th, ahead of NATO’s annual summit in Vilnius, to meet with Sunak personally. Following a 40-minute discussion in Downing Street, during which the pair reportedly affirmed the “rock solid” bond between their nations, the premier’s official spokesperson claimed he had robustly reiterated London would “stand by our obligations” under the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions (CMC), to his US counterpart.

The Guardian hailed Sunak’s position in a forceful editorial that same day. Arguing Russia’s use of cluster bombs “is not a reason to further drag down international norms”, it went on to boldly assert the US “should never have deployed them”, “should not have rejected the convention banning them”, and “should not be supplying them to Ukraine”. The outlet proudly noted that over 120 states have joined the CMC, of which the UK was a leading advocate, signatory, and ratifier.

Yet, entirely absent from the media and political fracas that has erupted over the past week was any acknowledgment the UK served as key driving force behind specific clauses in the Convention, allowing signatory countries to provide training in the use of cluster munitions to allied militaries that are not parties to the CMC, and logistically support their use. From London’s perspective, this would, of course, include Washington, and Kiev.

That omission may in part be attributable to the military directive covering UK armed forces assistance on cluster munition use being concertedly concealed by the Ministry of Defence. It was only disclosed in 2021, over a decade after the Convention came into force in London, and even then mistakenly, in response to Freedom of Information requests from an independent researcher. A lengthy ensuing battle to keep the information public domain was only successful due to the Information Commissioner’s Office intervention.

UnHerd can reveal the contents for the very first time. The directive starts by noting the Cluster Munitions (Prohibitions) Act 2010 “implements the Convention’s obligations in UK law,” and prohibits cluster bomb use “from taking place at all within the UK, and by all UK nationals anywhere.”

However, it goes on to state that Article 21 of the CMC – which is reflected in the Act – “enables continued international military operations and international military cooperation between signatory and non-signatory States, which might engage in activities prohibited in the Convention.” The Act moreover provides “legal defences for UK personnel operating with [cluster munitions] alongside allies from non-signatory states,” such as the US.

These “interoperability provisions” do not authorise the UK to “develop, produce or otherwise acquire” cluster bombs, and UK military personnel may not be “part of a crew (within a cockpit) or individual weapons platform that dispenses” these munitions. However, they “ensure that NATO and other coalition operations can proceed without UK personnel being liable to prosecution for undertaking normal operational duties” if cluster munitions are used by non-signatories.

“Normal operational duties” described in the directive are extraordinarily broad. While the UK armed forces “must not be in a position where they expressly request, or direct” the use of cluster munitions “to achieve a task,” soldiers “engaged in international military operations or international military co-operation” are able to “call for fire support” from an allied military, even if they know that will come in the form of cluster munitions.

They can furthermore refuel and service allied “aircraft, vessels and vehicles,” and “perform logistical planning, handling, storage, maintenance and transport services” for associated materiel, which “may” include cluster bombs. They can also train allied soldiers in their use.

In other words, the UK armed forces can do almost anything they like with cluster bombs – while evading legal consequences – as long as it’s someone or something else ultimately deploying them. The secret directive provides a very clear framework for London assisting Saudi Arabia’s use of UK-made cluster munitions, during its grinding, almost decade-long air war against Yemen.

During that conflict, every day UK-supplied aircraft flown by UK-trained pilots pounded Yemen with UK-made bombs and missiles, which were then repaired and serviced in Riyadh by UK contractors, including Royal Air Force engineers. Frequently, the targets were civilians and civilian infrastructure, including refugee camps, funerals, hospitals, schools, and weddings. The Saudi-led coalition also purposefully targeted crops, farmland, and fishing vessels, in order to starve the population.

When Riyadh’s deployment of UK-made cluster munitions was publicly exposed in mid-2016, Amnesty International warned that if any of London’s “several hundred specialist support staff working closely with the Royal Saudi Air Force” were implicated in their use, this “would constitute a clear breach of the UK’s legal responsibility” under the CMC. Except, it absolutely wouldn’t, according to then-secret Ministry of Defence doctrine.

There is another covert corollary to London’s ratification of the CMC. US diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks show that in May 2009, then-Foreign Secretary David Miliband approved a loophole that would allow cluster munitions to be stored on British territory, contrary to the Convention’s obligations. Officials in Whitehall moreover maneuvered to ensure the ruse was concealed from parliament, in case it “complicated or muddied” debate around the CMC.

This loophole allows Washington to store cluster weapons as “temporary exceptions,” and on a “case-by-case” basis for specific military operations. A cited case was cluster munitions sited on ships off the coast of Diego Garcia, a British Indian Ocean territory, which has been occupied by the US military since its indigenous inhabitants were forcibly expelled in the 1960s.

It could well be that US cluster munitions based on British territory will soon make their way to the frontline in Ukraine, for a “specific military operation.” Upon arrival, it’s conceivable the profusion of UK special forces there will rely on “fire support” from jets bearing cluster loads. They may also teach their counterparts in Kiev how to use this weaponry, which could extend to targeting assistance, as London provided to Riyadh during the Yemen conflict.

As such, Rishi Sunak’s lofty critical pronouncements over Washington’s transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine, and his country’s steadfast commitment to adhering to its CMC obligations, ring entirely hollow, and give every appearance of posturing for the purposes of political capital. According to Ministry of Defence doctrine, and UK law, London can facilitate, enable, and effectively encourage Kiev’s use of cluster munitions – and the realities on-the-ground dictate it is likely, if not certain, that will happen.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/08/ ... hypocrisy/

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"Olenegorsky miner" in the dry dock of Novorossiysk
August 9, 6:43 p.m

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Large landing ship "Olenegorsky miner" is being repaired in the dry dock of Novorossiysk after damage received as a result of an attack by a marine drone.
Should be back in action in the fall.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8556347.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Fri Aug 11, 2023 12:09 pm

The Kupyansk front
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 08/11/2023

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When it began two months ago, the Ukrainian offensive was supposed to cause a quick break in the front that would later allow a deep advance towards key points such as Melitopol. In this way, Ukraine would be in a position both to attack the Crimea and to split the Russian grouping on the southern front in two, thus making it impossible to supply it. The plan collided head-on with Russian resistance that Ukraine and its allies do not seem to have foreseen, but which has caused a situation in which the lack of progress is leading to a clear dissonance between the Ukrainian discourse and the reality on the ground that even present the western media. At the present time, articles showing skepticism about the Ukrainian ability to defeat Russia coexist, doubts about the effectiveness of Western training and even statements with the low morale of the troops, which contrast with the Ukrainian rhetoric, which tries not to change. Although the great taboo of this war, the Ukrainian casualties, is even beginning to be talked about, kyiv continues to try to impose its discourse. Just yesterday, the spokeswoman for the Ukrainian Armed Forces revived an old idea to accuse Russia of building crematoria to make its dead soldiers disappear. It seems clear that Ukraine seeks to divert attention from the images of the growth of its cemeteries and the first questions from the Western press about the effects of the counteroffensive among its ranks.

Several media reported yesterday that the news is not good for Ukraine. the blitzkrieg has become a war of attrition that Russia has prepared better than the defense of those same places where it is now fighting and that it lost a year ago. The counteroffensive was to give Ukraine quick success in secondary directions like Kremennaya or Artyomovsk, used to pin Russian troops away from the main front, where Kiev would advance in its priority direction towards Melitopol or Berdiansk. So far, neither the main direction nor the secondary ones have brought great results to Ukraine. The fact that all these primary and secondary objectives were obvious has helped Russia to plan both defensive and offensive moves with which to improve its positions and force Ukraine to divert part of its troops to areas where it did not expect to have to use so many. Bookings. This is the case of the Lugansk front, specifically the sector around Kremennaya and Svatovo, a priori more vulnerable for Russia since last September after the loss of its positions in the Kharkov region. The Active defense began weeks before the Ukrainian counteroffensive and with it Russia has managed to free those cities from the imminent danger of possible siege in which they found themselves a few months ago and also to force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to employ more troops than expected. And even in the surroundings of Artyomovsk, in places like Klescheevka, which Ukraine has taken for granted several times, Russian sources announce advances of some importance around that town. There is, for the moment, no reason to see in these movements an imminent danger for the next city in the direction of Slavyansk or Kramatorsk, Chasiv Yar, but a way to alleviate the situation in Artyomovsk.

More promising in the short term seems the direction to Kupyansk, an area that, according to the Ukrainian plans, should not even appear in the war reports. Recaptured from the Russian troops last September in a rapid breakout of the front that surprised the command and the soldiers on the ground, who could not but withdraw quickly to avoid being besieged, this area of ​​the front seemed consolidated for the Ukrainian authorities, who in this year they have carried out the efforts to persecute collaborators that the Western press has so lightly justified.

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Many days ago Russia began to place some emphasis on improving its positions in this sector of the front, apparently favorable due to its proximity to the Russian border, which should facilitate logistics (although that aspect was one of the problems a while ago, something that the Russian command seems to have worked on and improved in this time). Over the past few days, various comments from Ukrainian soldiers and commanders collected by media such as openDemocracy they implied a worsening of the situation for the interests of Ukraine. Yesterday, Ukraine, always reticent to admit problems, stated that the situation in the northeast, that is, on the Kharkov front, was "very difficult", a way of confirming the information about the advance of several kilometers of the Russian troops. Eleven months after the withdrawal, Russia once again approaches the town of Kupyansk, an important communications hub and key to the advance on northern Donbass in the event of subsequent advances. It is premature to speculate on more ambitious plans than the defense of positions that had been in danger until recently and the advance on objectives such as Krasny Liman, lost in the hours after the announcement of the accession of the territories of the People's Republics to Russia.

The axis that runs through the Oskol river later descends towards Krasny Liman and finally towards Artyomovsk, so the Russian advance attempt responds to the protection of the territories under control and the possibility of strengthening that line in search, perhaps, of future higher level offensive actions. On the Kharkiv front, although the advance is significant, especially due to the contrast it represents with the poor performance of almost a year ago, a broad operation in search of a position like the one achieved by Russia should not be seen - at least for the moment. in the first days of his military intervention, when he aspired to besiege, if not capture, the city of Kharkiv, the second city of Ukraine. For now, the objectives are more modest and respond to the situation on the existing fronts, not the attempt to create one more. Advancing towards Kupyansk, where Russia would have to cross the Oskol River, a stumbling block that made the defense difficult last September, Russia seeks to force Ukraine to divert part of its forces from other fronts, including Belgorod, where bombardments regularly occur, Artyomovsk or even Zaporozhye. Obliging Ukraine to use its strategic reserves or to divert forces from its priority front would already be an important result for Russia in its attempt to keep the Zaporozhye line stable, which will determine the final assessment of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

At the moment, the situation is complicated enough for Ukraine to have sent Syrsky, the commander of the ground forces, to this sector, to have admitted Russian advances and to have ordered the evacuation of some thirty towns (none of them Kupyansk). . According to sources like Rybar, generally well informed, Russia would be about seven kilometers from Kupaysk, an advance that would have to consolidate and after which it would have to reach the eastern bank of the Oskol River. The success of this operation will be measured, not only in terms of capturing towns or improving offensive and defensive positions, but also in the Russian ability to undermine the logistics of the Ukrainian army in this sector of the front and in the effect that the battle will achieve when having to redirect a significant number of troops for this defense. In any case, the Russian offensive moves in the east are already a symptom that the initiative that Ukraine acquired on the front eleven months ago is now, at the very least, disputed.

https://esslavyangrad.files.wordpress.c ... 228950.jpg

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Chronicle of the special military operation for August 10, 2023
August 10, 2023
Rybar

Russian servicemen from the Zapad group continue their offensive near Kupyansk. The position of the enemy in the area has seriously deteriorated, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered heavy losses in manpower and equipment. However, despite the tactical successes of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, it is premature to talk about the imminent assault on the city. The Ukrainian authorities, in turn, announced the evacuation of 53 settlements near Kupyansk.

In the Vremievsky sector, Ukrainian formations, during the next "meat assault", were able to gain a foothold on the northern outskirts of Urozhainoe . Nevertheless, the enemy failed to develop success, an attempt to continue the attack was thwarted by Russian fighters, who continued to hold the southern part of the village.

In the early morning, the Armed Forces of Ukraine again attacked Crimea with drones launched from the Odessa region . Russian air defense and electronic warfare systems intercepted 12 vehicles near Cape Tarkhankut, Evpatoria and Sakami . As before, on the eve of the attack in the Black Sea, American and French aircraft were reconnoitering.

In addition, Ukrainian formations made another unsuccessful attempt to attack UAVs on Moscow - the devices were intercepted in the Kaluga region and the Odintsovo district of the Moscow region.

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Another raid of Ukrainian drones on the Crimea

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Early in the morning, after a comprehensive reconnaissance by the US Air Force and NATO Air Force, Ukrainian formations again attacked the Crimean peninsula with Mugin-5 PRO drones launched from the Odessa region. As a result of the joint work of the units of the 31st air defense division and the EW calculations of the RF Armed Forces, 12 targets were shot down: ten were suppressed by EW at Cape Tarkhankut and Evpatoria , one was shot down by the Tor air defense system over Khersones, and the other on the way to the Novofedorovsky airfield over Sakami by the Pantsir air defense missile system.

Unlike previous attacks, the UAF slightly changed tactics: this time the UAVs were launched in small groups from several points, starting from the Shkolny airfield and ending with the jump base in Vilkovo . The attack was again preceded by active reconnaissance in the Black Sea area. In the southwest and south of Crimea, the French Atlantique 2 base patrol aircraft , as well as three US Air Force MQ-9A Reaper drones, operated.

Despite the repulsed raid, the attacks are highly likely to continue. According to some reports, a large batch of drones has been delivered to the Odessa region, which they plan to use in combination with unmanned boats.

On the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for mass strikes on the southern territories of Russia

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Recently, the command of the naval forces of Ukraine announced the introduction of no-navigation zones in the Russian ports of Taman, Tuapse, Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik and Sochi. But not immediately, but from August 23, calling them a risk zone. The advance publication of such data is part of an information operation aimed at artificially escalating tension in the southern regions of the Russian Federation. In addition, it may create confusion among civilian shipping companies operating in the Black Sea.

At the same time, strikes and attacks not only on warships of the Russian Navy, but also on civilian ships are quite likely. Against the backdrop of the recent attack on the Sig tanker , this is already rather a standard practice of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as part of complex attacks on Russian territories. This is supported by the increased activity of NATO intelligence. Only today, exactly after the drone raid, at least six aircraft and UAVs operated in the air over the Black Sea zone.

The flight of the French E-3F aircraft, which is a harbinger of future attacks by the Armed Forces, looks especially curious . It operated in a completely new area - in the southeastern part of the Black Sea off the coast of the Krasnodar Territory at a distance of less than 190 km. Also, a British RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft is currently operating about 110 kilometers south of Crimea , along with an American RQ-4B drone. Judging by the proximity to the Crimea, as well as the danger zone introduced near the Black Sea ports, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are planning a massive combined attack, and today's attack is an assessment of the defense of Crimea.

Video with Grad installations with welded gratings
Recently, a curious video appeared on the Web with a Grad MLRS column , where gratings were installed on the cabs and launch tubes to protect against drones. The course of the CBO clearly demonstrated that often expensive high-tech equipment can be destroyed by cheap ammunition dropped from a commercial copter. Therefore, protection from such means of destruction is fully justified.

It's also funny that the first such devices on armored vehicles appeared even before the SVO on T-72B3 tanks of the Southern Military District as an ersatz protection against Javelin anti-tank systems. Then the "barbecue" on the armor caused a lot of jokes in social networks. However, in the end, paradoxically, they turned out to be relevant against other weapons, while no one remembers the Javelins themselves for a long time.

The situation on the front line and the fighting

At night, Russian troops attacked targets in Ukraine with drones of the Geran family . One of the targets was an oil depot near the city of Dubno in the Rivne region . Several fuel tanks were completely destroyed as a result of the attack.

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In the Starobelsky direction near Kupyansk, servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces group "West" are conducting a positional offensive against the positions of Ukrainian formations north-west of the city. The position of the Armed Forces has seriously deteriorated. The number of casualties as a result of systematic attacks by Russian troops is growing. And evacuation is virtually impossible due to constant shelling and the unwillingness of evacuation groups to climb to the front line.

Only today, an enemy armored vehicle was hit by an accurate artillery strike, which was supposed to pick up the wounded from Sinkovka . The Ukrainian Armed Forces sent another BMP, but it also came under fire. Forces 14 ombr and teroborona refuse to fight. The only formations still offering resistance are the units of the 95th Oshbr, deployed to help. However, this did not help either. At the moment, the battles are going on near Sinkovka. The paratroopers of the 95th brigade retreated from one of the strongholds. But for now, it is premature to talk about approaching Kupyansk, the offensive continues.


In addition, last night the Russian Armed Forces dealt a powerful blow to the administration of Kupyansk, where Ukrainian formations were located.

In the Soledar direction, fierce fighting continues in the Kleshcheevka area . According to some reports, Russian servicemen managed to push back the enemy, as well as repulse the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the flank from Andreevka , but there is no confirmation of this information yet.

In the Donetsk direction, the situation has not changed significantly. Positional battles continue along the entire front line. Near the Avdeevsky fortified area, Russian artillerymen, with the support of UAVs, hit another enemy stronghold, destroying the enemy’s manpower.

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On the Vremyevsky sector, assault detachments of the 37th Marine Brigade again attacked the positions of the Russian army in the Urozhayny area last night . As a result of the fighting, the enemy was able to gain a foothold on the northern outskirts of the village and began to equip observation posts there.

On the afternoon of August 10, the Armed Forces of Ukraine intended to attack the defense lines of the Russian Armed Forces in the south of the settlement with four groups of marines. Before that, Ukrainian artillerymen fired at the strongholds with cluster munitions. However, two groups refused to advance due to disagreement with the "meat storm" tactics. The command of the 37th infantry regiment united two detachments to continue the attack. After several unsuccessful attempts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreated to their original positions.

For now, the fighting continues. The northern outskirts are under the enemy, and the southern one is under the fighters of the RF Armed Forces. No matter how happily the Ukrainian sources hooted, the Ukrainian Armed Forces still did not capture Urozhayne, and their losses are already quite significant.


At the same time, footage of one of the numerous choked attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the village of Urozhaynoye in the Vremyevskiy sector , where the enemy has been trying to break through the defenses of the RF Armed Forces for almost a month, has recently appeared on Chingiz Dambiev’s channel. The most characteristic moment in the pictures is the use of captured BMP-3s by Ukrainian formations. Before the SVO, they actually did not have such vehicles, however, a large number were abandoned by Russian troops at the beginning of hostilities and during the “Kharkov regrouping”.

Such mistakes and a peculiar attitude towards technology last year led to the fact that from time to time among the targets of the Lancets, in addition to the Leopards and Bradleys, there are captured T-72B3 or BTR-82, which not only increased the equipment of enemy formations, but they are already firing at our troops. Fortunately, at least during the departure from Kherson , such a picture was avoided - most of even faulty vehicles, fortunately, were either taken out in advance to the left bank or destroyed.

At the same time, in the Ugledar sector , marines of the 40th Marine Guards Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet continue the methodical destruction of Ukrainian formations in Prechistovka . The calculation of a 122-mm self-propelled howitzer from a drone discovered the stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, after which an accurate blow was delivered to it. The footage shows how the remnants of the dugout shattered after being hit by a shell, and with them the members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Then the UAV operators waited for the evacuation of the wounded in an armored vehicle, following it to the personnel assembly point in Prechistovka itself. And the gunners completed what they had begun by hitting the enemy's cluster from the Gvozdika. Such pinpoint strikes are important in a positional war. This does not allow Ukrainian units to build up forces in this area and at the same time limits the actions of the enemy against the backdrop of fighting in the Vremievsky area.


In the Orekhovsky section of the Zaporizhzhya direction , heavy fighting continues on the outskirts of Rabotino , where Ukrainian formations, at the cost of heavy losses in personnel and equipment, continue to attempt rollbacks in small groups. According to unconfirmed reports, the Ukrainian DRG made an attempt to enter the settlement itself, a shooting battle is underway, and mortars are also being fired at the enemy.

In the evening, Russian troops launched several strikes on the objects of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of the city of Zaporozhye . According to preliminary data, the target of the attack was the location of foreign mercenaries in one of the hotels.

Today, RIA Novosti published a wonderful report by Alexander Kharchenko and Sergey Shilov from the outskirts of Rabotino in the Zaporozhye direction. In fact, they became the first military commanders who reached this village, which has already become a household name.

Equipped fortifications with a network of trenches, which the fighters dug out by hand, got into the frame. According to them, the attitude towards the fortification of the RF Armed Forces has changed for the better since the beginning of the NMD, which ultimately gave the result.

A separate point is the use of the previously proven irony optical-electronic complex and other samples that allow you to detect targets even despite all the enemy’s measures, such as smoke screens. The servicemen also directly say that the industry is working efficiently and is supplying all possible means to destroy the enemy.

It is also curious that in the video the fighters note a strong underestimation by the enemy of the technical capabilities of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation: apparently, the massive hatred in Ukrainian propaganda eventually played a cruel joke on the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Artillery duels continue along the Dnieper in the Kherson direction . Cannon and rocket artillery are working against the enemy, the bridgeheads occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the left bank have been treated with Solntsepekami.

The enemy suffers losses both on the partially held islands and in the Dnieper delta . Crossing boats are covered with both artillery and FPV drones.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

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Last night, Ukrainian formations once again tried to attack Moscow . Two UAVs were shot down by air defense systems. One over the Maloyaroslavetsky district of the Kaluga region , the second over the Odintsovo district of the Moscow region . Victims were avoided, according to some reports, there is destruction in the private sector. Several dozen flights were delayed in Domodedovo and Vnukovo .

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In the Bryansk region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired at the village of Khinel , Sevsky district. A residential building and a commercial facility were damaged, and no one was injured among civilians. Later, the enemy fired on the Chausy in the Pogarsky district. Two men died from shrapnel wounds, another was injured and was taken to the hospital. In addition, damage was received by a local agricultural enterprise.

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The settlements of the Kursk region also came under fire from the Armed Forces of Ukraine today . The enemy fired more than eight shells at the village of Zabolotovka , Glushkovsky District, five residential buildings were damaged, and there were no casualties.

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In the Belgorod region, an air defense crew shot down an enemy UAV, according to preliminary data, there were no damage or casualties. Local residents also reported shelling of Mokra Orlovka, Murom, the village of Gorkovsky , as well as Kolotilovka and the village of Valkovsky , but there was no official information about the consequences.

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Ukrainian formations continue to shell the civilian infrastructure of the Donetsk People's Republic on a daily basis. The enemy fired over 140 shells and made 42 attacks. Residential buildings in the Kuibyshevsky and Kievsky districts of Donetsk were damaged , one person was injured. In Yasinovataya, the building of school No. 5 was damaged. In the Central City district of Gorlovka, as a result of a direct hit in an apartment, a man died from shrapnel wounds on his balcony. Under enemy fire, there was also residential development in Makiivka and Svetlodarsk : in the latter, among other things, there is no water supply due to a substation in the village destroyed by a shell. Lugansk .

Barbarous shelling of settlements on the left bank of the Kherson region continues . In Novaya Kakhovka, a civilian was killed by enemy fire, and another received multiple wounds. The southern part of the city was hit especially hard. In addition, Ukrainian formations fired on Kakhovka, Korsunka, Podstepne and Cossack Camps . Civilian infrastructure was damaged, and there were no reports of civilian casualties other than Nova Kakhovka.

Political events
On the interview with Polish President Andrzej Duda

Polish President Andrzej Duda gave an interview to The Washington Post in which he stated that Russia, in his opinion, would not use nuclear weapons. He sees a threat to Poland in this area from Ukrainian nuclear facilities: “If we talk about the nuclear threat, then I am much more worried about possible problems with nuclear power plants in Ukraine . ” In his opinion, the risk of such an accident is higher than the chance of using nuclear weapons.

In addition, Duda also touched upon the issue of arms supplies to Ukraine. He believes that now the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have enough potential to change the balance of power and gain the upper hand, and then they need additional support.

About provocations in the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra.

The Commission of the Ministry of Culture of Ukraine sealed four buildings of the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra . Believers continue to stand in prayer near one of the sealed buildings. The police let people into the territory of the Lavra only with passports, while there are rumors among believers about tomorrow's attempt to completely evict the UOC-MP from the complex, but there is no official information about this yet.

About sanctions against Bacardi

Ukraine has included the popular alcohol producer Bacardi in the list of war sponsors due to the company's refusal to leave the Russian market. Despite the public announcement of leaving the market, the profit of the Russian branch of the company has tripled. The Ukrainian authorities believe that if Bacardi continues to pay taxes, it means that it finances the budget of the Russian Federation and sponsors the so-called "aggression".

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

PS - Are the Ukes playing for time?Fighting to forestall a Russian counterattack before the autumn rains?

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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on threats to Russian security posed by Finland’s NATO membership and Poland’s military build-up
August 10, 2023

Even independent minded Western experts who should know better are wont to speak about “Russian disinformation’’ as a contributor to the “fog of war” in and about Ukraine. What kind of Russian disinformation campaign there can be when nearly all of Russia’s international channels are blocked by the United States and its European allies is something that obviously does not cross the mind of these seemingly enlightened Russia detractors.

In that context, it is most remarkable that an egregious case of real Russian disinformation yesterday has been totally ignored by Western media. Perhaps that is because the primary audience for this disinformation was domestic, in Russia, and not the world stage.

I have in mind the speech which Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu delivered to the governing board of his ministry. Parts of this speech were broadcast on Russian state news channels. The key sound bites were as follows.

Quote:

Threats to the military security of Russia on the Western and Northwestern strategic areas have grown many times over.

A serious destabilizing factor is the entry into NATO of Finland and, the prospective entry of Sweden. After Helsinki joined the Alliance, the ground border of Russia with countries of the bloc increased almost two times.

On the territory of Finland, NATO may place military contingents which are capable of destroying critically important structures in the Northwest of Russia.

In the immediate proximity of the borders of Russia and Belarus there are stationed around 360,000 NATO men at arms, 8,000 tanks and other armored vehicles, 650 airplanes and helicopters.

Unquote

Shoigu also made reference to Poland’s latest announcement of plans to post an additional 2,000 troops to its border with Belarus. And he said that “Poland has been used by the U.S. as the main instrument of anti-Russian politics.”

The expansion of NATO this year and its prospective further expansion in the near future are indisputable facts. However, whether this increases or reduces NATO’s actual strength in any contest with Russia is open to discussion, as I will demonstrate in this essay. Meanwhile, even if the figures on NATO forces and equipment “in immediate proximity to Russia’s borders” which Shoigu cited are correct, the aggressive intention he attributes to them is what I see as aggravated disinformation.

To be sure, Russia is using exactly the same security calculations as have guided American military doctrine since the 1990s: namely that you pay attention only to an adversary’s capabilities, not to his intentions, which may be unknowable and which may change over time. However, in the given case America’s and NATO’s intentions are entirely readable as we see by their behavior in the proxy war going on in Ukraine: the United States is making every effort to avoid crossing swords with the Russians and precipitating a Russia-NATO war that could easily escalate to a global nuclear war.

I believe that Shoigu’s speech was, firstly, posturing to ensure that his staff does not sleep at its desks when his back is turned. They are being put to work drafting plans for a new armed forces command looking after the western and northwestern territories.

Secondly, the speech was directed at the State Duma, to bring Russian legislators on board for what will surely be heavy new military appropriations to support the military build-out. To have a sense of what that means, I make reference to the remarks made on the Evening with Vladimir Solovyov talk show last night by retired Lt General Andrei Gurulyov, Duma member from the United Russia party, member of the Duma commission reviewing budget allocations for defense, member of the Duma Defense Committee. Gurulyov told viewers that the new military command would require headquarters staff numbering 800. That suggests a very big and sophisticated contingent of men at arms.

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So Russia will organize a unit of its armed forces dedicated to defending the border with Finland. However, I believe that Finland’s joining the Alliance has created a net negative security outcome for the Alliance rather than for Russia. This entire exercise repeats the foolishness that the accession of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania back in 2004 signified. Everyone knew at the time that the Baltic States, with their paltry populations and tin soldier armies were no match for Russia, even then when Russia had not yet recovered from its weakness stemming from the 1990s economic and organizational implosion.

By the period following 2010, it was already understood in the West that Russia could overrun the Baltic States in a day or two if there were no quick response units prepared in NATO to move in swiftly and if there were no European NATO troops on the ground as a tripwire to ensure that Article 5 provisions of the Alliance were instantly brought into play. Nonetheless, it is questionable whether any of these measures by NATO to date can ensure the viability of the Baltic States if Russia attacks with all its might.

Today, when Russia has demonstrated in its war with Ukraine that it has probably the strongest ground forces on the Continent, the notion that Finland, with its 5.5 million population can hold its own is far-fetched. And how many troops will NATO dispatch there to assist in defense? One thousand? Fifty thousand? Where would these troops be housed? The questions roll in. I see no obvious answers.

The accession of Finland added more than 1,000 km to the ground border with Russia. That is close to the length of the line of engagement between Russian and Ukrainian forces today. As we have seen, the Ukrainians have had a very difficult time crossing that line and making territorial gains against Russia over the course of the past two months of their counteroffensive despite having received massive assistance from NATO in terms of advanced military equipment and training. The Ukrainian soldiers are brave and committed, and yet the Killed in Action ratio at present is 10:1 against the Ukrainians.

Let us remember that at the start of the war, Ukraine had a population of about 40 million versus Russia’s 145 million. The outflow of refugees and draft evaders may have reduced the Ukrainian population to 26 million, which is still five times the population of Finland.

Let us also consider the topography and other relevant facts about the Finnish territory abutting Russia on this long frontier. I know something about this from personal travels in Karelia three years ago. We are speaking about dense pine forests and swamps, about very low population density, probably similar to the density in the middle of nowhere in Siberia. There are local asphalt roads there, but no big arterial roads. By contrast, in the Russian side, the extension of the 4 lane super highway from Vyborg to the Finnish border is nearing completion. The Russians have their second largest city, Petersburg, with 4.5 million inhabitants and a very advanced logistics infrastructure located less than200 km from the border. Accordingly, I pose the question: who will be threatening whom as both Finnish and Russians prepare their defenses going forward.

As regards Poland, the potential security threat to Russia is on a different level. It has a population of 40 million and the possibility to significantly expand its current armed forces of around 120,000. Its ongoing procurement of advanced armored vehicles, artillery, jet fighters from multiple sources including South Korea and the United States means that in a couple of years it may become a regional power to be reckoned with. But by that time the Russian armed forces will have grown to 1.5 million and they will be that much better equipped with the types of weapons that have shown their worth on the battlefield and which are all produced domestically, meaning they are easy to resupply and to repair as needed.

I disagree with Shoigu’s suggestion that Poland is being instrumentalized by the United States as the next priority force directed against Russia. The Polish government under its past Civic Platform leader Donald Tusk, like the current government of the Law and Justice party founded by the deeply anti-Russian Kaczynski brothers, needed no encouragement from Washington to position itself as Europe’s shield against the barbarians to the East, that is to say, to take up the standards of 18th century Poland till the country disappeared from the map of Europe.

Nonetheless, the Polish political system is genuinely democratic, unlike the putsch-installed regime in Ukraine with its fanatical neo-Nazi hangers-on. It has no suicidal tendencies to match Zelensky and his team. It will hardly venture to go to war against Russia on its own. And it will have an impossible time mustering a consensus in NATO to join it in a war against Russia that it initiates.

*****

In the past several months preceding and during the accession proceedings which brought Finland into NATO, its Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has repeatedly emphasized how the Russia- Ukraine war has reunited the NATO member states as never before and given new momentum to the alliance while reaffirming its original objective of standing firm against Soviet/Russian power on the Continent. The newest Scandinavian member had, after all, abandoned seventy years of neutral status and friendly if subordinate relations with Russia to join the pan-European defense system. The prospect of Sweden’s admission in the near future would be another victory. And ultimately Ukraine would be invited to join, enhancing the Alliance’s military capacity greatly.

Very few in the West have questioned the logic of expansion being a plus and only a plus. One such person was Professor Stephen Cohen, when he pointed out nearly twenty years ago that NATO is not a fraternity house. It is supposedly guided by the national security interests of its member states, and admission of the Baltic States was a net negative for the alliance. I have updated that critique with today’s remarks on how Finland’s joining the Alliance is another ‘own goal’’ by the NATO team.

Now let us proceed with this debunking of U.S. security considerations by taking a look at the often cited author of Washington’s Ukraine strategy as from the administration of Barack Obama to today, Zbigniew Brzezinski. Many promoters of U.S. and allied support for Ukraine in its war effort now cite Brzezinski’s “prescient” remarks in his widely sold and read book of 1997, The Grand Chessboard. This was written at a time when Americans were still looking for a new global strategy given that they had, as they believed, won the Cold War and seemed to lack a replacement national purpose.

Brzezinski insisted that if Ukraine could be detached from its close industrial and political relationship with Russia, then Russia would cease to be an imperial power and could be re-categorized as just another non-threatening European state.

We all know today where pursuit of Brzezinski’s road map has brought us. Russia is arguably stronger than ever now that its society has been consolidated behind a patriotic mission, now that its armed forces have mastered the arts of high-tech ground war and its military industry has expanded production multifold. In this context, we may say that Brzezinski’s advice to his compatriots and their leadership was harebrained. For anyone who cares to look into this question further, I urge them to consult my several chapters critiquing Brzezinski’s writings in the ‘90s and early in the new millennium in my collection of essays entitled Great Post-Cold War American Thinkers on International Relations (2010).

Brzezinski’s efforts to contain Russia went beyond his writings to active participation in plans laid by his former protégé Madeleine Albright, who became Secretary of State, to wage ‘pipeline wars’ against Russia. This was a two-pronged effort: to stymie Russia’s planned gas pipelines to Europe like South Stream and to promote alternative pipelines from Central Asian and Caucasus gas producers which would run outside the borders of the Russian Federation and so would be free of Kremlin interference. The various actors and developments in the multi-year ‘pipeline wars’ are discussed in my 2013 collection Stepping Out of Line.

The end result of that policy was the imposition of a ban on importation of Russian hydrocarbons into Europe as punishment for the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the destruction of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline last year. As we know today this is resulting in the deindustrialization of Germany, Europe’s lead economy and exporter, in high inflation across the Continent and in a widespread decline in European living standards.

Moral of the story: be careful what you wish for.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/08/10/ ... -build-up/

******

NATO Training Leaves Ukrainian Troops ‘Underprepared’ for War
Posted on August 9, 2023 by Yves Smith

Yves here. More and more Ukraine-supporting Western outlets are making admissions against interest as far as how the war is going. Consider the twofer in the headline: that Ukraine forces are by implication taking a drubbing from the Russians, and the once-implied-to-be-superior NATO training might be a big reason why.

This framing is a very big shift from repeated claims by US, NATO, and EU officials, as well as many commentators. Russia was running out of missiles. Russian troops had poor morale. Russian forces were badly led. The Russian military was hopelessly corrupt.

This sort of thing has finally started to die down as the much ballyhooed Ukraine counteroffensive has proven to be not just an embarrassing failure, but also a disaster. Independent Western experts like Douglas Macgregor (who recall has excellent contacts) suggest that Ukraine deaths in this campaign are approaching 40,000. To give a sense of significance, compare that to the 60,000 men specifically trained by NATO since March of last year to shore up Ukraine forces. And recall that there are additional, and significant, numbers of wounded men.


On top of that, we had the spectacle of Western equipment such as the vaunted Leopard 2 tanks meeting densely mined Russian “crumple zones” ahead of the Russian fortified lines and not coming out well from the encounter. Western experts also seemed surprised that Russia engaged in remote mining, delivering mines behind the advancing armored vehicles so that if they retreated, more would be lost.

It’s not clear who was behind the decision to try to conserve equipment, but Ukraine has changed tactics to a more manpower-intensive approach of trying to move men close to Russian positions in small groups, usually along tree lines which they hope offers cover, then getting out and moving in on foot.

As Alexander Mercouris in particular has chronicled, the US and NATO are engaged in a blame game with Ukraine. Ukraine is supposedly at fault for being forced to take on a military Mission Impossible, of attacking very well fortified Russian positions with no air support, and worse in a world of ISR where each side can see very well what the other is up to. So the Collective West line is that Ukraine is at fault for abandoning a “combined arms operation” approach like they were supposed to and reverting to something they hoped might work better.

So that is a long-winded way of explaining that this piece is part of the Ukraine effort to point a finger at its sponsors.

Those who have been following the war closely will notice all sorts of omissions and misleading spin. For instance, the piece says those trained by NATO since the war started get 35 days of basic training. As Brian Berletic and Mark Sleboda have pointed out, basic training for US service members is 90 days, and four months for Marines. Berletic made clear that was not remotely adequate for going into combat; he said something to the effect that all you know at that point is how to use a gun and that it takes many months more of working with a unit to reach a basic level of competence.

Scott Ritter has elaborated on that observation by describing how service members need to learn to operate within their unit, then those units need to learn to function effectively as part of a battalion, and then battalions need to learn to train as part of a brigade, and then brigades need to coordinate as part of an army. Ritter has stressed that Ukraine is now burning through its third army and its poor performance is no reflection on the courage of its men, but that you can’t expect forces built on the fly to be effective.

Ritter also stated that training Ukraine troops in so many different countries would lead to additional problems, since each NATO member has its own armed forces and not 100% consistent approaches to operations. That means differences in flavors of training would undermine cohesiveness in action

Berletic and Sleboda (I infer based on personal experience) said many months ago that NATO training is not so hot. Ritter and Macgregor have depicted NATO as in the business of fighting insurgents, as in nothing even remotely approaching a peer power. The article confirms that criticism. For instance:

A key concern about the Western training is that the instructors have never fought a war of this kind, or against an enemy like Russia. For years, Western armies and their defence industries have focused on fighting insurgencies in the Middle East.

Even though this piece may seem fairly tame compared to what attentive war-watchers have seen elsewhere, the fact that it goes as far as it does is yet another proof that the West can no longer pretend that Project Ukraine is going well. But you see here nary an admission of how much our arrogance has cost in terms of Ukraine lives and loss of limb.

By Isobel Koshiw, a journalist based in London covering corruption. Originally published at openDemocracy

Ukrainian soldiers are being left underprepared for the realities of Russia’s war because of a disconnect between NATO and domestic military training, according to one frontline brigade.

So far, more than 60,000 Ukrainian soldiers have taken part in military training in the West.

Yet NATO can only currently offer Ukrainian soldiers basic training, shifting the burden of vital combat training back to Ukraine. Time constraints mean that stage two training doesn’t always happen, or happen in full, in Ukraine or the West.

“I don’t want to say anything against our partners, but they don’t quite understand our situation and how we are fighting,” said a senior intelligence sergeant in the newly formed 41st Mechanised Brigade who goes by the name ‘Dutchman’. “That’s why the main training and the integrated training happens here.”

Nick Reynolds, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK defence think tank, said that the West’s current training for the Ukrainian military is less realistic, but safer and simpler. He admits that this approach shifts the risk from things going wrong at the training stage to things going wrong during live operations.

“We do have a lot of health and safety regulations… yet this means they are going on to the battlefield less prepared,” Reynolds told openDemocracy.

Most of the day-to-day tactics used against Russia’s forces, along with combined arms training – where battalions learn to operate together as a brigade – are taught in Ukraine.

“The Western training is good and the guys gain experience, particularly in shooting and [the use of] equipment… but the most useful training is still done in Ukraine,” said Dutchman, who joined as a volunteer fighter at the start of the conflict in 2014.

openDemocracy met Dutchman and other members of the 41st Brigade in Kupiansk, a town in north-eastern Ukraine, near one of the most active stretches of the frontline. Almost all the soldiers in the 41st have undergone training in the West.

It usually takes between one and two years to form a brigade, but wartime conditions mean that 90% of the 41st Brigade were mobilised this year. Recruitment started in January and they were dropped into Kupiansk in early July. Before the invasion, basic training for Ukrainian troops was six months, but some of the men openDemocracy met had been mobilised as recently as March, highlighting Ukraine’s critical demand for troops.

“It would be better if either [the instructors] came here to see what we’re facing or we went there to train their instructors to train our troops,” Dutchman added – though he recognises that the former would break NATO’s red line of ‘no boots on the ground’ in Ukraine, while the latter would probably not be acceptable to NATO bureaucracies which require instructors to have risen through the ranks under NATO tutelage.

A Different Kind of Enemy

So far, some 63,000 Ukrainians (17 brigades in total) have been trained in the West, mostly in the UK and Germany.

All receive a 35-day ‘boot camp’ of basic soldier training. A source involved in the UK training process described it as a “crash course” and the most that could be provided in the time available. They pointed out that a big plus was the thousands of pounds’ worth of equipment, including body armour and medical supplies, the Ukrainian troops take home with them.

A key concern about the Western training is that the instructors have never fought a war of this kind, or against an enemy like Russia. For years, Western armies and their defence industries have focused on fighting insurgencies in the Middle East.

Members of the 41st Brigade said that their instructors often used examples of NATO operations in the Middle East, where the objective is to clear houses and identify potential insurgents among the local population, but “that’s not really relevant to us”.

“For the most part, [Western instructors] have fought wars in cities and towns – urban settings. We are on flat ground a lot of the time,” said Dutchman.

The tactics that Ukrainian officers and commanders badly want their troops to learn while being trained abroad are either only part of the syllabus or not featured at all.

“We need people to understand how to effectively clear trenches, enter them, how to throw grenades effectively, how not to trip on booby traps, to understand what grenades the [Russians] throw – essentially to understand the enemy,” explained Dutchman.

Yura*, one of the newly mobilised soldiers from the 41st, gave the example of minefields. Russian forces have laid extensive minefields – some of which span several kilometres – to hamper the progress of Ukrainian troops involved in the recently launched counter-offensive.

“The [Western] training was good and interesting. But there was very little about de-mining,” Yura said. They showed us a minefield about two metres wide. The training lasted about two hours. But you get here and look at what’s in front of you, it’s just not comparable.”

Another major difference, argued Dutchman, who has attended several Western training courses in the UK and Germany, is in planning. Referring to the fact that NATO forces usually outgun (and overpower) their enemies, he said that Western instructors plan “with a weaker enemy in mind”.

Ukrainian commanders also have to think on their feet much more, he said. “There’s never going to be a warning regarding an offensive… So when the attack happens, we have to make decisions,” he said. “[In the West] they make the plan and act according to the plan and when something doesn’t go according to plan, they retreat and make another plan.”

NATO Training Regulations

Another issue is NATO regulations on health and safety protection for troops in training.

“The way that we build the pathway [the training stages for troops] is you accredit units as safe at a lower level, and you build up with each layer, getting the safety tick-off… A single death on a training ground in a NATO country is unacceptable,” said RUSI’s Reynolds.

But Ukraine does not have the time to put its troops through these various levels, which means they can’t access additional, more advanced training modules (on particular equipment or the responsibilities of different ranks, for example) that would be useful to them.

The condensed training currently offered to Ukrainian troops makes it difficult to reach a stage where NATO would be comfortable layering on additional training, according to Reynolds.

“I’m not saying one [training approach] is better than the other,” he continued.

“From a legal, regulatory, safety and permissions perspective, we can’t do [the type of training Ukrainians want], unless we make some fairly serious policy changes.”

But Reynolds said he believes there is some scope for changing the training, and that the limits of what the West can offer have not been reached: “Western militaries providing aid need to come around to the realisation of what is required to make collective training work outside Ukraine.”

For now, Ukraine’s 41st Brigade is acclimatising to what’s called the “second” line of defence outside Kupiansk – although they’re within comfortable range of Russian artillery and tank fire, they are not as targeted as the “first” or “zero” line. At some point, they will be moved forward to face some of the 50,000 or so Russian troops around the town, who are attempting to draw Ukrainian forces from other areas in the south and east.

Ultimately, said Dutchman, no soldier is properly trained until they are on the battlefield and can think through their reactions.

“However much you prepare someone, they won’t understand that they are in a war until they have been shelled… Most of the men here are unshelled,” he said.

*Names have been changed to protect identities

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Sat Aug 12, 2023 11:16 am

"Important results"
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 08/12/2023

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After a series of cases that have embarrassed Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky announced yesterday in his last video statement to the nation that he has given the order to dismiss all regional military commissars, in charge, among other things, of recruitment. In February 2022, kyiv decreed general mobilization and prohibited men of military age from leaving the country (with exceptions mainly related to family responsibilities). Since then, the information about the ways that men without permission to leave the country have used to reach the European Union, Moldova or Israel have been diverse, but in large part they have been possible thanks to bribery, many of them possibly in the own border. In his message, the Ukrainian president added that those commissars would be sent to the front and replaced by veterans who "have lost limbs, but have retained their dignity and have no cynicism." With this argument, Zelensky touches on two recurring themes: corruption and the serious injuries of soldiers fighting at the front.

The reason for the collective dismissal is to avoid paying bribes. With this, the Ukrainian president also admits, albeit implicitly, the difficulties of mobilization, something that has been seen graphically both with videos of captures of people in the middle of the street and with the summons to ranks for people with severe disabilities. These problems are not only the result of the administrative incompetence of the State or of the now dismissed commissioners, but also a direct consequence of the intensity of the war, which after 18 months has caused enormous damage in large areas of the country and an unknown but high number of casualties. Casualty data is, on both sides of the front lines, the best kept secret. Both Russia and Ukraine have tried to avoid giving any realistic figures for their losses, especially in the case of dead soldiers. The lack of awareness of the high casualties depends on the fact that a feeling contrary to the war does not appear. In the case of Ukraine, much more warmongering in social terms since the battle began in 2014, publicizing the seriousness of the casualties - something that can be verified with the images of the growth of the cemeteries and contrasted with the reports of civilian casualties, which remain low considering the intensity of the war - would jeopardize the confidence of their partners in victory.

During the last few days, various articles have shown that face of the war that Ukraine has tried to hide by covering the entire story of the war in a halo of invincibility, courage, and physical and moral superiority seasoned with an arrogant smile. This narrative has worked seamlessly for a year and a half, based first on the epic of resistance and later on the exaltation of victory. It is now that Ukraine is facing a different situation. The defense requires fewer troops than the attack, especially if the confrontation takes place against a small contingent. The lack of troops was one of Russia's shortcomings in the first months of the war, something that Ukraine took advantage of in its initial defense phase, when he managed to defend the most important cities and prevented the Russian advance on kyiv, and also in the first offensive phase, when the Russian troops simply could not defend a front of a thousand kilometers. The mobilization - in this case partial and without prohibition to leave the country for people of military age - and good preparation in the months that have elapsed between the announcement of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and its start have changed the situation. “It is a simple fact that Russia is drowning in the Ukraine,” wrote David Ignatius, one of the star columnists for The Washington Post in an article extolling Ukraine's strategy of small steps that not only does not correspond to the intentions of the Kiev military authorities, but also contradicts the information and reports published by its newspapers in recent days.

Despite the protection that the press has given Ukraine since February 2022, hiding the casualties and refusing to ask uncomfortable questions, even the press closest to the establishment already doubts Ukraine's ability to achieve its goals. The latest report from the cities near the front lines published by The Washington Post , for example, presents a bleak picture of an army poorly prepared and suffering heavy casualties and a population exhausted from the war. "They are taking anyone and sending them to the front without any preparation," says one of the people interviewed. The comment is consistent with the doubts that have been raised even around the training of Ukrainian soldiers abroad. In an even tougher article,The Wall Street Journal drew attention to the number of amputations Ukrainian soldiers are suffering, irreversible losses for an army that has no intention of slowing down its recruitment process. However, none of this is a sufficient reason to reconsider the situation, modify the training or military action plans or seek a political solution that limits the damage Ukraine is suffering.

Doubts about Ukraine's ability to break through the Zaporozhi front and advance deep into territory under Russian control have almost inevitably favored the reappearance of the shadow of the possibility of initiating a negotiation process or the search for a Stop the fire. Without a minimally clear military victory on the southern front and with Russia defending with solvency and attacking on secondary fronts to undermine Ukraine's offensive capacity, any negotiation process would take place in a position of weakness, something that Ukraine has already shown for nine years that is not willing to do.

The pressure for the lack of results has been noted in Ukraine especially in the public messages of its representatives. The fact that the refusal to negotiate has become the most repeated argument by people like Mikhailo Podolyak or Dmitro Kuleba is proof enough that concern is beginning to appear over a possible suggestion by their partners that they need to negotiate. The consumption of ammunition currently carried out by Ukraine is hardly sustainable in the long term for its partners, who will not be able to continue producing the projectiles necessary to maintain a war of the current intensity for a long time. The absence of clear victories implies a choice between continuing with plans that may never yield the expected results,

Despite the certainty that the Ukrainian plans have not met the expectations that the government itself created, Ukraine wants to make it clear that there can be no possible negotiation. This was confirmed on Thursday by Dmitro Kuleba, who was hiding behind accusations of crimes committed by Russian troops to deny any possibility of negotiation with Russia. During the Minsk years, kyiv made it clear that it was not willing to comply with the signed agreements if they implied concessions on its part. The refusal is now extended to any dialogue with the Russian Federation, something that makes any negotiation process unfeasible, even to achieve a ceasefire that would benefit both armies and, above all, the civilian population. Despite speculation about whether that possibility is starting to loom, none of the moves made by Ukraine or its partners are heading in that direction. Russia is repeatedly accused of refusing to negotiate, an argument as useful as it is fallacious considering that it was not even invited to the summit.for the peace held in Saudi Arabia. "The counteroffensive will soon give us victories and we will continue fighting, we have no alternatives," Kuleba said. The alternative existed until Ukraine broke off political negotiations in April 2022 after a process in which it bought time for its partners to start organizing the logistics of military assistance and in which it never intended to accept the concessions demanded by Moscow. For the same reason, Ukraine openly delayed and sabotaged the Minsk Contact Group and Normandy Format negotiations. Kiev has never been willing to compromise and has always seen war as the most favorable option to avoid making concessions, even when it was a perfectly acceptable compromise for the recovery of Donbass according to the agreement signed in 2015.

Promising important results in the short term, Mikhailo Podolyak yesterday made Ukraine's position clear in a message addressed to its partners, especially those who are beginning to doubt future promises of success. “Every political leader today has to understand that any contact with an officially persecuted war criminal (for example, the President of Russia) is not a diplomatic activity but an international manifesto, a declaration of support for genocide, terror and war crimes. Isolating your name from Russia today is not some kind of sanctionbut a matter of personal hygiene”, he wrote in a message that is consistent with Ukraine's actions of continuing the war at all costs and thinking only of the consequences that a negotiation would entail, that is, renouncing to achieve its impossible objectives.

Hence, the insistence remains the same: more weapons to continue a war that is not going well for Ukraine and in which the numbers of amputations are found, according to The Wall Street Journal, at levels similar to those of the First World War. Ukraine appears to have limited its demands to quickly receive US F-16s, possibly because of difficulties in training its pilots, with only eight ready to start the process. Picking up the argument of Boris Johnson, who proposed to replace the air cover of manned aviation with long-range missiles, Ukraine now mainly insists on American ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles. A week ago, the German Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, stated that the delivery is not on the agenda and recalled that the United States is not yet sending its precious missiles. The comment suggests that Berlin would act in the same way if Washington changed its position, thus sending missiles with which to attack, for example,

Regardless of when the delivery of cruise missiles to kyiv is approved, Ukraine's allies also seem convinced to continue the war. Adding to the weekly announcements of new arms shipments has been this week Joe Biden's request to the US Congress for an additional $13 billion in military assistance. Despite the lack of results, the interests of kyiv and its partners continue to coincide and both parties are committed to war. Hence the emphasis is both on accelerating supply and securing support in those sectors of the establishment less convinced of the success of proxy warfare. This is the case of a part of the American right, to whom an article published in The Washington Post is addressed.which purports to answer the question why conservatives should support Ukraine. The main source for the article is Andrzej Duda, President of Poland, whose main argument is that “it is very simple. Right now, Russian imperialism can be stopped very cheaply, because American soldiers are not dying." It is the verification of the usefulness of the proxy war, which only requires maintaining the economic cost.

“When I brought up that about a third of Senate Republicans recently voted to cut aid to Ukraine, Duda showed no concern,” wrote conservative journalist Mac Thiessen, a columnist for The Washington Post and a regular on Fox News . . Ukraine's allies are aware that they have a proxy willing to continue sending their soldiers to their deaths indefinitely. In this context, the promises of future results are more than enough to guarantee the continuation of the arms supply that makes it possible to continue the war.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/08/12/resul ... more-27909

Google Translator

*****

Chronicle of the special military operation for August 11, 2023
August 12, 2023
Rybar

In the afternoon, the Russian Aerospace Forces launched strikes with Kinzhal cruise missiles at military facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Ivano-Frankivsk and Vinnytsia regions . One of the munitions hit the target at the Zhuliany airport in Kiev , the extent of the damage is still unknown. Ukrainian formations, in turn, once again tried to attack Moscow this week : an enemy drone was planted by electronic warfare near Karamyshevskaya embankment .

In the Starobelsky direction, units of the RF Armed Forces stormed the stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the turn of Yampolovka - Torskoye . In the area of ​​​​Serebryansky forestry, Russian fighters repelled the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Dibrova.

In the Soledar direction, the RF Armed Forces were able to slightly push the enemy back to the southern outskirts of Kleshcheevka . In the Vremievsky sector , the enemy is trying to take control of Urozhaynoye by rolling . At the moment, Russian military personnel are holding their positions.

In the vicinity of the Cossack Camps on the left bank of the Dnieper, a difficult situation has developed: the enemy strikes the village daily, according to some reports, the advanced landing of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was able to gain a foothold on the western outskirts of the village. Meanwhile, in the area of ​​the Antonovsky bridge , Ukrainian DRG sorties continue, where the enemy still holds a bridgehead.

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On the attack on Kyiv

Today, the RF Armed Forces again struck with the “Dagger” - this time it again went to the Kiev airport Zhuliany , where the launchers of the Patriot air defense system are based. However, once again, reports of a possible launch of a hypersonic missile appeared in Ukrainian channels literally immediately after the MiG-31K took off. One of the reasons for this awareness is the cells of the SBU / GUR in the cities where such military facilities are located. Usually people from Ukraine or those who sympathize with them rent apartments close to airfields and regularly telegraph about the takeoff and landing of each aircraft.

They usually do not even perform other work, but from time to time such people can be attracted to other tasks. For example, arson of storage facilities or other poorly protected areas. From a military point of view, they are meaningless, but can lead to significant economic damage, as was the case with last year's fire at the OZON warehouse in Istra .

And what is most characteristic is that sometimes such single cells are contacted in messengers not even with curators from Kiev , but with employees of European diplomatic missions. The latter provide them with everything they need “on the ground”, be it finance or logistics. Against this background, it remains only to remember that the mere expulsion of a new batch of diplomats or NPO workers from enemy states can cause real damage to their agents in Russia. At the very least, this will be clearly more productive than endless talk about "red lines" and "the right to retaliate."

In addition, Russian troops launched strikes with Kinzhal cruise missiles at the facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kiev , Khmelnitsky , Vinnitsa and Ivano - Frankivsk regions .

On forced evacuation from the Kupyansky district

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Yesterday, the acting head of the Kupyansk regional administration , Andrey Kanashevich, announced the mandatory evacuation of civilians from 37 settlements against the background of the offensive of the RF Armed Forces. On the one hand, such a measure is evidence of a serious deterioration in the situation of Ukrainian formations near Kupyansk. Russian servicemen of the Zapad group are pressing at the Sinkovka - Petropavlovka line , where Lancet UAV operators hit the Polish M109 self-propelled guns today.

Ukrainian units partially refuse to go into battle. This has already forced the removal of forces from the Kremensky and Kherson directions . And the evacuation of citizens is carried out in case of a breakthrough of defense. On the other hand, the departure of residents along the villages and cities located near the zone of active hostilities may mean either the upcoming or already ongoing transfer of reinforcements to this zone.

Personnel need to be placed somewhere, and for this, as a rule, private households are used. Under the pretext of evacuation, the Ukrainian command can vacate the buildings to accommodate troops. Our troops are gradually advancing along the front, but we should not run ahead of the locomotive: capping is not what is needed now. And statements that 7 km are left to Kupyansk cause only bewilderment, because such a distance has been maintained for several months.

Another question is that even if the transfer of reinforcements by the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to stabilize the front is confirmed, this will mean that the enemy had to withdraw forces from other areas that are more relevant to him.

The situation on the front line and the fighting

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In the Starobelsky direction, after several days of calm in the area of ​​​​the Torsky ledge, Russian soldiers stormed the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the turn of Yampolovka - Torskoye . Voenkor Alexander Kots published footage of this moment, confirming control over the position. To the north, in the Novoselovsky area , motorized rifle units of the RF Armed Forces expanded their control zone in forest plantations near the settlement. To the south in the Serebryansky forestry there is a positional struggle. Ukrainian units carried out several sorties with small forces in the forests near Dibrova , but our fighters successfully repelled the attacks. North in the areaBeams Zhuravka assault detachments of the 21st mechanized brigade tried to attack the line of defense of the Russian army, but to no avail. A similar attack took place near the Karmazinovsky ledge by the forces of the 68th separate infantry brigade, which was transferred from the Ugledarsky sector . The attack was repulsed.

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On the Soledar direction yesterday in Kleshcheevka , Russian troops launched a counterattack and were able to move slightly to the south of the village. The configuration of the front is currently unclear due to the fog of war, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine have deployed reinforcements to the southwest of Bakhmut.

Now the brigade-artillery group of the 22nd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is conducting a massive shelling of the Kleshcheevka - Ozaryanovka line , covering the transfer of people and equipment. NgP Intelligence reports 30 units. Judging by the movements of the column, the next enemy strike will be focused not only on Kleshcheevka and Andreevka , but also Kurdyumovka with Ozaryanovka to pin down the defense of the RF Armed Forces.


Tanks and artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been intensively hitting the strongholds of the Russian army since the very morning, preparing the ground for a new breakthrough. And a couple of days ago, mobilized people were transferred from improvised training grounds north of Konstantinovka.

Positional clashes continue in the Donetsk direction in the area of ​​​​the Avdeevsky fortified area and the western outskirts of Maryinka .

Fierce fighting continues in Urozhaynoye in the Vremievsky sector . Russian troops hold their positions in the almost completely destroyed village, but Ukrainian formations are driven by wave after wave of new forces. Artillery is working on the positions of the RF Armed Forces almost non-stop, the enemy is using cluster munitions. The situation in the area remains difficult, the presence of the enemy in the northern part of Urozhaynoye remains.

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In the Orekhovsky sector, in the morning, the enemy, using seven units of armored vehicles, again tried to strike at the Rabotino - Verbovoye line . According to Archangel Spetsnaz , the advance was detected and the cluster was covered by artillery. Armed Forces attacks by small forces have been going on for several days. Only before that, Ukrainian formations attacked with infantry without the support of armored vehicles. Yesterday, assault detachments of the 46th detachment of the DShV tried to gain a foothold 3 km east of Rabotino , but the Russian fighters repelled the attack.

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are growing every day. FPV drone operators are actively working, hitting the Ukrainian infantry that has settled in the trenches. As a result of yesterday's sortie, 46 oambr were missing (according to confirmed data) two killed and 15 wounded. And in one of the companies of 10 AK, the number of those killed was 155 people. Also, the activity of Ukrainian formations is noted near Pyatikhatki . After a small regrouping, units of the 128th Guards Brigade were transferred to the area of ​​​​the settlement, which indicates a possible activation in this area.

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In the Kherson direction, the situation near the Cossack Camps remains tense. After the sortie of the Ukrainian formations, the artillerymen continue shelling the settlement. In recent days, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have several times landed DRGs on the left bank of the Dnieper, trying to expand the bridgehead and move towards the Cossack Camps, but at the moment the village is under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

However, the presence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine west of the Camps is a fact. The activity of the DRG does not stop, artillery and mortars are conducting a massive shelling along the river bank. Target designation is provided by gunners and UAVs. Similarly, Ukrainian reconnaissance groups operate near the Antonovsky bridge , and in the Goloprystan sector , where forces are regularly deployed on boats and boats. Yes, the threat from them is still insignificant, but if we take into account the number of DRGs along the entire Dnieper, then an unpleasant picture emerges.

In the village of Pridneprovskoye, the Dnepr group of troops, using air adjustments, for the first time hit a self-propelled 120-mm mortar of the Spanish production NTGS Alakran . Anti-tank guided missile equipment is completely disabled.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

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In the afternoon, Ukrainian formations once again attacked Moscow . For some time , airspace was closed over Vnukovo Airport. A UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was moving from the direction of Kubinka and fell in a park near Karamyshevskaya Embankment in Moscow . Nearby is one of the hydroelectric facilities in the energy system of the canal named after. The city authorities said that the device was shot down by air defense systems. No one was hurt in the incident and there were no injuries. Vnukovo Airport has resumed normal operation. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced the suppression of the apparatus by means of electronic warfare.

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The settlements of the Kursk region also came under fire from the Armed Forces of Ukraine today . Two arrivals were recorded in the village of Kalinovka : outbuildings were damaged, none of the local residents were injured.

In the Belgorod region, local residents reported shelling of the village of Terezovka, Shebekinsky District , but there was no official information about the incident.


Ukrainian formations continue to terrorize the civilian population of the Donetsk agglomeration and the DPR . However, compared to previous days, the intensity of strikes has significantly decreased. As a result of the shelling, two people were injured in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk . Also, the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the building of a local school with a shell. In addition, arrivals were recorded in the settlements of Gorlovka , Golmovsky and Yasinovataya . In total, about 100 shells were fired at these settlements.

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The terror of the civilian population of the left bank of the Kherson region does not stop . Under enemy shelling, residential buildings in the Cossack Camps, New Kakhovka , Kakhovka , Aleshki and Podstepnoe . Attacks are delivered both by artillery and mortars, and sabotage groups drop ammunition from UAVs. The enemy is well aware that it is the civilian population that is attacking.

Political events

On the training of the Ukrainian military on the territory of England

Some 1,000 Ukrainian Marines have completed six months of training in the UK and are "ready to return to the front lines." UAF soldiers during this time were trained in the use of new generation light anti-tank weapons (NLAW) and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, as well as the use of mortars and unmanned aerial vehicles for reconnaissance and destruction of obstacles, such as the Dragon's Teeth anti-vehicle fortifications. “This training program, led by elite British commandos, will help Ukraine build its own maritime forces and expand their ability to operate in a maritime environment,” UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said .

About the price of Ukrainian life

Polish President Andrzej Duda , in an interview with The Washington Post, said that the conflict in Ukraine is an opportunity to "cheaply stop Russian imperialism . " So the head of the Polish state hinted that in this confrontation, the United States does not have to pay with the lives of its soldiers, while the servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are dying in battles with Russia.

On problems with the supply of arms for the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The American edition of The Washington Post reports delays in the training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots . This is due to the fact that future pilots first need to take a four-month English language course. The newspaper claims that the first group of Ukrainian pilots, only six people, will complete their training no earlier than next summer, and the training of the second group will be completed only at the end of 2024.

There is also conflicting information about possible deliveries of Taurus long-range missiles from Germany for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The German government said they were not going to transfer Taurus missiles to Ukraine, despite media reports. Recall that earlier German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that Berlin does not intend to transfer this type of missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, after that, a series of materials appeared in the media stating that the transfer would still take place and the issue had almost been resolved. At the same time, it was reported that the German Ministry of Defense was asking the manufacturer to technically limit the flight range of the Taurus so that Ukraine could not strike Russian territory with it.

On the meeting of the National Security and Defense Council headquarters in Ukraine with the participation of Zelensky

Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council on the results of an audit of Ukrainian military registration and enlistment offices. As a result of this meeting, he recommended to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny to appoint officers who participated in the hostilities to the positions of regional military commissars, on the recommendations of the heads of operational-tactical and operational-strategic groups. In addition, the next meeting of the National Security and Defense Council on the issue of military medical commissions was announced, which should take place in two weeks due to their "unsatisfactory" work.

Recall that since July in Ukraine there has been a personnel purge of the heads of military registration and enlistment offices. The reason for it was the corruption scandal around the well-known Odessa regional military commissar, Colonel Yevgeny Borisov , who was found to have property worth almost 200 million hryvnias. After similar raids took place in a number of other regions. Such a “witch hunt”, as well as tightening the rules for leaving the country for the male population of Ukraine, may indicate that the Ukrainian authorities decided to quickly solve the problem with a shortage of personnel after the failures during the current offensive.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

(Other images at link.)

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Google Translator

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Ukraine SitRep: The End Of The Counteroffensive

Western media have finally change course. They are now admitting that the much promoted Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed. In fact, the acknowledge that it never had a chance to win in the first place.

The Hill, the Washington Post and CNN now agree that the Ukrainian army will never achieve its aims.

That makes it difficult for the Biden administration to get Congress approval for $24 billion in additional 'aid' to Ukraine. It does not make sense to pay for a cause that is evidently lost.

The Polish President Duda has also acknowledged that the counter-offensive has failed. Relations between Warsaw and Kiev have gotten worse and Polish interests will not allow for more support or active intervention.

Nothing has come from the 'peace conference' which Saudi Arabia arranged on Ukraine's behalf.

Despite the onslaught of bad news the Ukrainian army is still trying to take Russian positions in the south and east of Ukraine. But it simply does not have enough in men and material to break through the lines.

Even if they would manage to get a local breakthrough there are not enough reserves to push for the necessary follow up. Just one of the NATO trained brigades has still been held back. All others have been mauled in their various deployment zones.

In the northeast around Kupyansk the Russians have started their own offensive which has the Ukrainians on the run. Ukraine has ordered the evacuation of the area:

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for the Ukrainian city of Kupyansk and its surrounding areas, as Russia intensified shelling of Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region and claimed to have captured Ukrainian positions near the city on Thursday.

But Kupyansk is a Russian city and people refuse to leave.

The Russian campaign is slowly speeding up. As the Ukrainian Strana.news reports (machine translation):

Also in Ukraine, it is recorded that from Kupyansk to Bakhmut, Russia has increased the number of attacks.
"Over the past month, the total number of attacks in the Kupyansk, Limansky and Bakhmut directions has grown significantly. In July, during the week there were 6-6.5 thousand attacks, during the last week-9 thousand attacks, " - said the representative of the National Guard Ruslan Muzychuk.

According to him, the Russian Federation does not experience "shell hunger".

Aviation is also actively used, and over the past few weeks, more than 50 air attacks have been taking place every day, and sometimes more than 80.


That is bad news for the Ukrainian side which lacks the reserves to counter the Russian onslaught. There are also less weapons coming in from the West. F-16 fighter jets will be delayed for another nine months due to training issues. Tanks and other material are in short supply.

Strana also report of an interview with a knowledgeable Ukrainian soldier (machine translation):

Continuing the topic of the situation at the front, an interesting interview was given by a Ukrainian sniper fighting near Bakhmut with the call sign "Grandfather". On the air of political scientist Yuri Romanenko, he was introduced as Konstantin Proshinsky (this is a pseudonym).
The fighter spoke in detail about his vision of the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Russian army.

1. Mobilization. In his opinion, it is conducted incorrectly. Recruits are sent to the front who have never been trained, and they are often over 50 years old and with a whole bunch of diseases.
...
2. No rotation. The soldier says that "the same brigades" are fighting at the front, and people are not taken out of the front line for six months or more. Whereas by Western standards, they can be kept in a war zone for no more than three months.
...
3. Behavior of mid-and high-level commanders. According to Proshinsky, many of them are trying to arrange a "mini-Stalingrad" on the positions, forcing them to go into frontal assaults on well-fortified Russian positions.
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4. The Russian Army began to fight better.
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5. Proshinsky believes that Russia has not yet used much of what it has against Ukraine.


The soldier thinks that the Russians will not move from their positions and that a stalemate peace like in Korea would be the end result.

I believe that to be wrong. Russia's aim is to liberate at least the four regions that it has claimed for itself. For political reasons it can not stop before that is done.

Should the Ukraine continue to fight after that, Russia is likely to set new aims and take more land.

Posted by b on August 11, 2023 at 13:06 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/08/u ... .html#more

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People refuse to evacuate Kupiansk district
IRYNA BALACHUK — FRIDAY, 11 AUGUST 2023, 12:58


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STOCK PHOTO: RESCUE WORKER OF THE STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE OF UKRAINE HELPS RESIDENTS TO EVACUATE. PHOTO: SESU

Residents of the Kupiansk district of Kharkiv Oblast refuse to evacuate; most often, they are pensioners, but it happens that young families with children do not want to go either, said Andrii Besedin, Head of the Kupiansk City Military Administration.

Source: Radio Liberty

Quote from Besedin: "Unfortunately, for the most part, as we expected, people refuse to evacuate. But we constantly have bus routes that connect the city of Kupiansk with the city of Kharkiv. The train runs regularly. People contact us; there is a hotline. We respond immediately, form lists, and volunteers are taking [residents] to Kharkiv."

Details: Besedin added that older people most often refuse to evacuate, but there are also families with children among those who refuse.

The head of the Kupiansk City Military Administration said there are currently more than 600 children in the Kupiansk hromada [a hromada is an administrative unit designating a town, village or several villages and their adjacent territories – ed.].

"It is very important for us that they are in safer places. Because of the escalation, the number of attacks that are now on the territory of the hromada is increasing. We must protect especially children and people with limited mobility and move them to safer regions," Besedin emphasised.

Background:

On 10 August, local authorities announced the beginning of the mandatory evacuation of residents of 37 settlements in the Kupiansk district of Kharkiv Oblast. Such a decision was taken in connection with increased attacks from Russia.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/11/7415164/

"The Russians are coming! Oh thank God!"

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The Polish President Said Kiev Isn’t Doing The West Any Favors & Its Counteroffensive Failed
Posted on August 11, 2023 by Yves Smith

Yves here. If you’ve been following the Ukraine war, you may have noticed the disconnect between reports touting the idea that Poland might be prepared to intervene militarily or find some pretext for a less aggressive takeover of parts of Western Ukraine versus Warsaw and Kiev trading barbs. Note that the reports pressing the idea that Poland might Do Something also overlook that the Polish military was reported as being not keen about intervention. Polish voters are also souring on Project Ukraine, due among other reasons to the refugee influx hitting a level where Poles are reported to be worried about dilution of their culture.

But Ukraine is its own worst enemy. Ukraine officials has been constantly whinging for more support as if it were a matter of right and being openly dissatisfied about what they are getting. That posture led Biden to rebuke Zelensky privately a while back.

At the start of August, a Polish presidential aide complained that Ukraine was not grateful for the support it was getting. That led Ukraine to take the high-handed step of Ukraine summoning the Polish ambassador for a dressing-down (this sort of thing is usually reserved for more serious and substantive rows). As Euronews points out, Polish unhappiness about Ukraine grain undercutting Polish farmers is another source of tension:


Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania have all seen their domestic grain production and relative compatibility in the EU single market – which they belong to and Ukraine does not – suffer due to copious amounts of cheaper grain flooding the market.

The UN brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine in July of 2022…

Soon after, farmers in EU nations bordering Ukraine complained that the grain was making its way into EU markets and that their locally produced grain – which is subject to EU regulations, taxes and other mechanisms and thus automatically more expensive – was being cast aside.

As a result, these countries independently imposed a ban on importing Ukrainian grain in April.

Unilateral import bans risk violating the principle of a common EU market…

In response, the European Commission adopted an exceptional measure which replaced the national import bans with an EU-approved ban for the five…

The measure is due to expire on 15 September.

However, Poland has said it will not lift its individual ban if the EU chooses to not extend this measure.

The Andrew Korybko post below has more details on the progress of the spat.

By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website

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Casual observers might be shocked by the Polish leader’s candidness, while Kiev’s supporters might accuse him of “betraying” their regime after becoming the first Western leader to debunk its top two lies nowadays, but his words weren’t unprovoked nor said in a vacuum. The background is that political ties between these wartime allies have tremendously worsened since late July after both sides finally began prioritizing their contradictory national interests.

Two of Kiev’s top propaganda narratives nowadays are that it’s selflessly sacrificing itself for the sake of the West by fighting Russia instead of surrendering and that its ongoing counteroffensive is succeeding in pushing that country’s forces out of Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders. The first largely remains above official criticism or skepticism since those who dare to doubt it risk being “canceled”, but the second has suddenly begun to be debunked by the Mainstream Media as proven by the following articles:

* NBC News: “Is Ukraine’s counteroffensive failing? Kyiv and its supporters worry about losing control of the narrative”

* CNN: “Western allies receive increasingly ‘sobering’ updates on Ukraine’s counteroffensive: ‘This is the most difficult time of the war’”

* CNN: “Why a stalled Ukrainian offensive could represent a huge political problem for Zelensky in the US”

* CNN: “‘We expected less resistance’: Ukrainian troops on southern front learn not to underestimate their enemy”

* The Hill: “Alarm grows as Ukraine’s counteroffensive falters”

* Washington Post: “Slow counteroffensive darkens mood in Ukraine”


In the face of this rapidly shifting narrative that threatens to topple one of the pillars of Kiev’s Western-directed propaganda, Zelensky’s senior advisor Mikhail Podolyak lashed out at critics in a tweet thread here where he demanded that they “be patient and closely monitor” his side’s progress. Polish President Andrzej Duda has been doing precisely that since the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine began, however, and he’s concluded that Kiev isn’t doing the West any favors and its counteroffensive failed.

He dropped both bombshells, the first of which debunked the claim that Kiev is selflessly sacrificing itself for the sake of the West and which hitherto hadn’t ever been officially challenged by any Western leader before, in an interview with the Washington Post’s Marc Thiessen from 1 August that was published nine days later. The relevant excerpts will be republished below for the reader’s convenience before analyzing them in the context of this conflict and evolving Polish-Ukrainian ties in particular:

“Q: At the NATO summit when President [Volodymyr] Zelensky criticized the [leaders’ joint statement about Ukraine’s prospective membership], there was criticism of him that he was ungrateful for all the help [given to] Ukraine. That suggests that our help to Ukraine is charity. Is our help to Ukraine charity, or is Ukraine really doing us a favor by giving its children, its lives to defend us against the Russian threat?

A: I would say it this way: I don’t see it in these categories — neither that we are doing an act of charity for Ukraine, nor that Ukraine is doing charity for us…We are sending them arms. Why? Because we want to support them in defending their own territory.



We Poles have many reasons to supply Ukrainians with weapons. … But the whole democratic world also knows that any aggressor who violates the borders of a democratic state in the 21st century in Europe must be stopped.”



Q: Could Poland fight a combined arms operation without long-range weapons and without air power? Because that’s what we’re forcing the Ukrainians to do today. What does Ukraine need that it’s not getting today?

A: Ukraine has been supplied with long-range artillery, and it is being supplied with long-range artillery to this day. … One could go as far as to say that Ukraine now has much more modern military capabilities than Russia.

The question is: Does Ukraine have enough weapons to change the balance of the war and get the upper hand? And the answer is probably no. They probably do not have enough weapons. And we know this by the fact that they’re not currently able to carry out a very decisive counteroffensive against the Russian military. To make a long story short, they need more assistance.”


Casual observers might be shocked by the Polish leader’s candidness, while Kiev’s supporters might accuse him of “betraying” their regime after becoming the first Western leader to debunk its top two lies nowadays, but his words weren’t unprovoked nor said in a vacuum. The background is that political ties between these wartime allies have tremendously worsened since late July as was documented in the following analyses:

* “Poland & Ukraine Are Arguing Over Grain Once Again”

* “Ukraine’s Ungratefulness Is Finally Starting To Perturb Poland”

* “Kiev’s Prediction Of Post-Conflict Competition With Poland Bodes Ill For Bilateral Ties”


In brief, each side finally began prioritizing their national interests, which resulted in public tensions due to the absence of any pressure valve for dealing with sensitive disagreements such as those over agricultural cooperation and historical memory. Moreover, each side has self-interested political reasons in escalating rhetoric against the other: Ukraine wants to distract from its failing counteroffensive while the ruling Polish party wants to rally its nationalist base ahead of mid-October’s elections.

It was against this backdrop that Duda did the previously unthinkable by telling one of the US’ most influential Mainstream Media outlets that Kiev isn’t doing the West any favors by fighting Russia and that its counteroffensive failed. Granted, he conveyed these two points in a “polite” way that signaled his continued support for NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine, but it’s still an unforgivable offense from that regime’s perspective.

NBC News warned earlier this month that Kiev and its supporters are worried about losing control of the narrative, which has now come to pass after what Duda just said. He and his country are much more popular and less polarizing among average Westerners than Zelensky and Ukraine, plus nobody doubts their anti-Russian credentials due to widespread awareness of Poland’s difficult history with that country. These observations mean that his words will likely have an outsized impact on reshaping the narrative.

As for the future of Polish-Ukrainian relations, it’s looking dimmer by the day due to their spiraling disputes becoming self-sustaining at this stage. That’s not to suggest that Warsaw will cut Kiev off from arms and other forms of support, but just that the trust which used to characterize their relations since February was finally exposed as illusory. This could complicate their reported plans to form a joint military unit and could lead to Poland acting unilaterally in Western Ukraine in the worst-case scenario.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/08 ... ailed.html
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:29 pm

The civil factor of the Russo-Ukrainian war
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 08/13/2023

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Still undecided about which discourse to adopt to describe the events on the ground, the media are trying to adapt to the new circumstances. Until now, the war had been simple for them in terms of little analysis and no contextualization of the facts. The summer of 2014 was marked by waiting for the entry of Russian troops and a repetition of the scenario that had occurred in Crimea weeks before and which finally did not occur. The chronification of the state of war, which Alexey Markov, second commander of the Prizrak brigade, defined as a catastrophic state of "neither war nor peace", which prevented normal life in the region, also consolidated the absolute lack of interest in the situation of area. The non-existent concern about the situation in the areas under the control of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, which suffered a transport, commercial and banking blockade that began in 2014 and increased during the Donbass war period, facilitated the analysis then. and helps to simplify the conflict now. This lack of interest also gave rise to the lack of critical analysis of Ukraine's performance throughout the Minsk process, sabotaged practically from the beginning in negotiations in which it was always clear that Kiev was not going to fulfill its commitments. This lack of criticism makes rectification unnecessary now that the Ukrainian representatives themselves and some international politicians -such as François Hollande, present during the negotiations that led to the signing- join the Ukrainian discourse.

The Russian invasion further simplified the analysis parameters both for those who considered 2014 a Russian invasion , even though it was not Russia but the Yatseniuk government during Turchinov's interim presidency that decreed the anti-terrorist operationon April 13 of that year, as well as for those who have forgotten all that period and understand that the war was an unprovoked act initiated by the Russian Federation on February 24, 2022. In both cases, it was a war between good and evil, democracy against authoritarianism, freedom against oppression. For a year and a half, media and experts of all kinds have extolled the feeling of unity that has supposedly been created in Ukraine in its fight against Russia. This vision not only eliminates with a stroke of the pen the population that has left the country, a part of it never to return,

In this absolute simplification of the international, regional and national situation, the civil conflict that has existed in Ukraine for nine years and which continues to be observed in the casualty figures has been completely eliminated. A few days ago, the BBC , in collaboration with Mediazona , published their latest data on Russian soldiers killed in the war identified through a methodology of continuous monitoring of the news and obituaries published in the local media or posts on social networks. There is no initiative that does the same job in the case of Ukraine, where concealing the level of casualties is important to ensure that the sense that senseless carnage is taking place in an unwinnable war is not increased.

The list published by the BBC and Mediazona includes 29,217 "Russian soldiers", very far from the data constantly repeated by Ukraine and which practically multiplies that data by ten, a cost that is still very high. Analyzing the latest data, the Canadian academic of Ukrainian origin Ivan Katchanovski collected the comment of the article in which he specified that "this figure does not include those who have fought on the side of Russia as part of the units of the self-proclaimed RPD and RPL" . Ukraine's unity discourse hides this reality by ignoring the 11,500 dead soldiers, a part possibly already with Russian nationality, but Ukrainians of origin, fighting precisely against Ukraine. Katchanovski added that "the BBChas identified nearly 400 casualties in Crimea. This means that 29% of the 41,000 fatalities identified among Russian forces are actually residents of Crimea and Donbass." The data reinforces the impression that the armies of the People's Republics have carried the brunt of the battle in Donbass, with the regular Russian forces in charge of fighting in the other areas of the extensive front.

These figures also show the continuation of an internal conflict that has been hidden since 2014 in favor of a simplified vision of the war, in which the People's Republics were nothing more than a Russian creation - not even a proxy - through which to fight indirectly against Ukraine. That vision coexisted with the discourse of Russian occupationof the territory, a way of denying the population of Donbass the ability to have made the decision to move away from kyiv and seek economic, political and military support in Moscow. It was not the Russian army that spent the winters in the trenches of Gorlovka or around the Donetsk airport, but militias formed from the local population, which fought in 2014 and 2015 in the great battles of the Donbass war - without a doubt with the support of Russia - and who joined the Russian hierarchy in 2022 with the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Nine and a half years after the start of the anti-terrorist operation of the first post-Maidan government, the war continues to pit Ukrainians on either side of the Donbass front line, something that, in a dynamic of simplification of the conflict, has been completely submerged in the rhetoric of unity of the Ukrainian people against the Russian invader . “The deliberate omission of the civil war aspect of the Ukrainian war is surprising and revealing,” Katchanovski commented.

The data could be uncomfortable for Ukraine, which applies the strategy of forgetting and denying to this reality. In his speech, the same one that has been followed by the press for all these years, Kiev simply ignores this reality and points to Russia to shoulder all the blame for the outbreak of the war, for the crimes committed, for the death and destruction while dreaming of capturing those territories, where the population has been fighting against the Ukrainian army for almost a decade, in order to impose a one-sided vision of what Ukraine is, what it means to be Ukrainian and, above all, what has happened since 2014.

The difficulty that both Kiev and its partners and the media that repeat its message are now facing is not the nature of the conflict, which is more complex than it has wanted to present, but the military reality, which can rarely be controlled through creation. of narratives. Ukraine has had an epic defense phase, in which it has exploited the feat of its soldiers of enduring the Russian siege in Azovstal for weeks without mentioning that it was the Soviet factory that defended its troops and not the other way around, and subsequently it has enjoyed months of triumphalism stemming from his two great victories at Kharkiv and Kherson. On the crest of the wave of international popularity among the establishemnt Western political, media and military, Ukraine did not seem to anticipate complications when it comes to maintaining that narrative of victory that is beginning to fragment due to the difficulties in advancing on Russian territory on the southern front. Only in this way have dissidences begun to appear in the media discourse, which is now considering the viability of the Ukrainian plan and the final victory and is beginning to distrust even the quality of Western training.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/08/13/27918/#more-27918

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Google Translator

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Chronicle of the special military operation for August 12, 2023
August 12, 2023
Rybar

Today , Ukrainian formations have once again launched a combined massive attack on Crimea . At night, about 20 UAVs attacked various objects on the peninsula, but were shot down by air defense systems or suppressed by electronic warfare. Later, in the afternoon, two modified S-200s were launched along the Crimean bridge , which also intercepted air defense systems.

Relative calm is observed in most sectors of the front. Artillery duels are going on between the parties, the RF Armed Forces continue to crush the enemy defenses near Kupyansk . A difficult situation remains near Bakhmut , the enemy is attacking on the flanks of the city near Kleshcheevka and Blagodatny .

In the Orekhovsky sector, the enemy is trying to attack in the vicinity of Rabotino with mechanized formations supported by tanks. Fighting is taking place near Verbovoye and east of Rabotino, during the day there were two waves of attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, both were repulsed, but the battle for the villages is only gaining momentum.

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Massive attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Crimea

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On August 12, Ukrainian formations attacked the Crimean peninsula twice at different times of the day: first, 20 Mugin-5 PRO drones were fired from the Shkolny airfield , and then there were two S-200 anti-aircraft missiles in the direction of the Krymsky bridge from the north of the Zaporozhye region. Of the 20 UAVs, 14 were destroyed by the calculations of the Tor-M2 air defense system and the Pantsir-S1 air defense missile system and rifle detachments over Armyansk , Dalekoe and Lake Donuzlav . Another six were suppressed by electronic warfare over Novoozernoye and Steregushchy .

It is curious that one of the drones was hit over the Black Sea by a Su-30M fighter 128 kilometers west of Saki . Probably, the aircraft was on patrol due to the activity of American aircraft: at the same time, the P-8A and two MQ-9A Reapers were in the air . The attack on the peninsula took place exactly after the complex intelligence of NATO in the region. The work of more than five units of aviation with the activity of the French E-3F can be considered a sign of an impending attack. Moreover, the UAV batch was delivered to Shkolny a couple of days ago.

The situation on the front line and the fighting
Today, there is relative calm in the Starobelsky direction . At the turn of Raigorodka - Karmazinovka, the enemy tried to go on the counterattack, but, having suffered a loss in equipment and manpower, was forced to retreat to their original positions. Positional battles continue in the area of ​​​​the Torsky ledge and Serebryansky forestry . Operators of the UAV "Lancet" strike with drones on enemy howitzers in the rear areas of the enemy.

On the Soledar direction, Russian troops continue to hold positions in Kleshcheevka , where the heaviest fighting has unfolded in recent weeks. There have been no serious changes on the contact line, the enemy is pulling additional forces to the area.

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Fighting continues for many days in the Yuzhnodonetsk direction in Urozhaynoye . The Armed Forces of Ukraine are pushing through the defense of the Russian army with the tactics of "meat assault". In the northern part of the village, Ukrainian forces are firmly in control.

At the same time, in order to gain a foothold there, two brigades of the Marine Corps of the Ukrainian Navy lost two of the four assault groups, one tank and two armored combat vehicles. Also today, detachments of enemy marines attacked the positions of the 37th brigade of the RF Armed Forces in the landings east of Urozhaynoye, trying to pincer the village, but the fighters of the RF Armed Forces repulsed the attack.

So far, the statements of the Ukrainian side about control over Urozhayne do not correspond to reality. However, the effort with which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to capture it, regardless of the losses, may force the Russian troops to retreat to a more advantageous line. Moreover, there was practically nothing left of the village, as was the case with Staromayorsky earlier .

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In the Orekhovsky sector, in the afternoon, Ukrainian formations began to storm the positions of the Russian army in the vicinity of Rabotino . The Armed Forces of Ukraine corrected their tactics, attacking east of the village along the landings. Four tanks under cover of forest belts tried to advance along the road to Verbovoye . According to the Zaporozhye Front , two tanks were destroyed immediately by the Marines of the 810th Brigade, while the rest retreated.

At the same time, infantry detachments of the 46th detachment of the Airborne Troops of Ukraine attacked the positions of the RF Armed Forces right near the eastern outskirts of Rabotino, using a bridgehead in the landing 1 km from the village. They tried a similar trick yesterday, taking houses in the northeast, where they were covered by artillery. Some time later, the Armed Forces of Ukraine went on the attack with a second wave, concentrating on strongholds 3-3.5 km east of Rabotino. The infantry detachment was able to penetrate the defenses, and now the airborne units are recapturing positions.

Judging by the rolls, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are planning to capture the Rabotino-Verbove line at any cost in the near future. Activity increased dramatically, including artillery. For this, reinforcements of the tactical group " Maroon " were transferred .

In the Kherson direction, Russian servicemen are thwarting attempts by Ukrainian formations to carry out new landings on the left bank of the Dnieper. In the meantime, the enemy continues to hold the bridgehead west of the Cossack Camps and conducts an almost continuous shelling of the village.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas
During the night, one Ukrainian drone was shot down in the Dzerzhinsky district of the Kaluga region . Air defense systems worked out on the apparatus, as a result of the incident no one was injured.

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The enemy continues to bombard the border area of ​​the Belgorod region daily . In the sky over Shebekino , an air defense crew shot down an enemy UAV, according to preliminary data, there were no casualties or damage. Local residents also reported shelling of the village of Kozinka in the Grayvoron District, but there was no official information about the consequences.

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Ukrainian formations continue to terrorize the civilian population of the Donetsk People's Republic with daily shelling. The enemy fired over 127 shells and made 37 attacks. Six residential buildings in the Kuibyshevsky and Petrovsky districts of Donetsk were damaged , one man died and six others were injured. Under enemy fire, there was also a residential area in Makiivka , where one person received shrapnel wounds, as well as in Svitlodarsk , Luhansk , Gorlovka and Yasynuvata : at the moment, the shelling continues, so new victims are not ruled out.

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Ukrainian formations delivered massive strikes against Nova Kakhovka , Kakhovka , Cossack Camps , Radensk and Hola Pristan . In Radensk, as a result of the shelling, several cars were destroyed.

Political events
On the plans of Western intelligence services to recruit citizens of the Russian Federation

CIA chief William Burns recently spoke at a meeting of The Ditchley Foundation in the UK, saying that Russian "discontent" with a special military operation "creates a once-in-a-generation opportunity for US intelligence agencies." Burns assured that his department would not "scatter human resources" and intends to engage in large-scale recruitment of Russian citizens, using the potential of information technology - social networks and instant messengers. Burns also boasted about a recent video that the CIA circulated on Telegram suggesting that Russian citizens make a "moral choice" and start working for US intelligence.

True, it is not very clear on what basis Burns believes that Russians in large numbers can be attracted to espionage. It is likely that the head of the CIA just wants to raise the image of the department, as well as get solid budgets . Ultimately, such grandiose plans and straightforward statements will surely play in the opposite direction, once again spoiling the international and domestic image of the CIA.

It is significant that Burns shared the plans of his department during a meeting of The Ditchley Foundation, an organization that has been gathering American and British political, military and business elites since 1958. For example, in 2015, information appeared in the media about the “ spy conference ” of The Ditchley Foundation, which discussed the leakage of classified information after the scandal with Edward Snowden. The event was also attended by representatives of Apple and Google. Such statements by the head of the CIA once again help to form a negative image of the American intelligence services among Russian citizens.

On the goals of Ukrainian UAV attacks

The British Guardian newspaper called the UAV attacks on Moscow a "socio-cultural response" to Russian strikes on Ukraine. Samuel Bendet , an expert on military drones at the Center for Naval Analysis, also noted that they are "a strategy for Kiev to demonstrate its capabilities."

As we have repeatedly written earlier, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian cities are carried out in order to sow panic among the population, as well as to create the appearance of hostilities being transferred to Russian territory. Here we can agree with the Guardian's skepticism about the effectiveness of such actions. After each such arrival, the hatred of Russians for the Kyiv regime only grows. For a simple layman, even for those people who have previously distanced themselves from the SVO and politics, victory in the conflict in Ukraine becomes a matter of survival .

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

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Russia, Donbass and the Reality of Conflict in Ukraine
By Daniel Kovalik - August 10, 2023

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Cathedral in Donbas destroyed by Ukrainian bombing in 2014. [Source: Photo courtesy of Dan Kovalik]

Ijust returned from my third trip to Russia, and my second trip to Donbas (now referring to the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk collectively) in about eight months. This time, I flew into lovely Tallinn, Estonia, and took what should be about a six-hour bus ride to St. Petersburg. In the end, my bus trip took me about 12 hours, due to a long wait in Customs on the Russian side of the border.

Having a U.S. passport and trying to pass the frontier from a hostile, NATO country into Russia during wartime got me immediately flagged for questioning. And then, it turned out I did not have all my papers in order as I was still without my journalist credential from the Russian Foreign Ministry, which was necessary given that I told the border patrol that I was traveling to do reporting. I was treated very nicely, though the long layover forced me to lose my bus that, understandably, went on without me.

However, sometimes we find opportunity in seemingly inconvenient detours, and that was true in this case. Thus, I became a witness to a number of Ukrainians, some of them entire families, trying to cross the border and to immigrate to Russia. Indeed, the only other type of passport (besides my U.S. passport) I saw amongst those held over for questioning and processing was the blue Ukrainian passport. This is evidence of an inconvenient fact to the Western narrative of the war that portrays Russia as an invader of Ukraine. In fact, many Ukrainians have an affinity for Russia and have voluntarily chosen to live there over the years.

Between 2014—the real start of the war when the Ukrainian government began attacking its own people in the Donbas—and the beginning of Russia’s intervention in February 2022, around one million Ukrainians had already immigrated to Russia. The fact that Ukrainians were going to live in Russia was reported in the mainstream press back then, with the BBC writing in September 2014 about some of the refugees while noting that “[s]eparatists in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence after Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine.

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Partisans fly Donetsk flag. [Source: envoicesevas.ru]

Since the violence erupted, some 2,600 people have been killed and thousands more wounded. The city of Luhansk has been under siege by government forces for the past month and is without proper supplies of food and water.” The number of dead in this war would grow to 14,000 by February 2022, again before Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO) had even begun.

Around 1.3 million additional Ukrainians have immigrated to Russia since February 2022, making Russia the largest recipient of Ukrainian refugees in the world since the beginning of the SMO.

When I commented to one of the Russian border officials—Kirill is his name—about the stack of Ukrainian passports sitting on his desk, he made a point to tell me that they treat the Ukrainians coming in “as human beings.” When my contact in St Petersburg, Boris, was able to send a photo of my newly acquired press credential to Kirill, I was sent on my way with a handshake and was able to catch the next bus heading to St. Petersburg almost immediately.

Once in St. Petersburg, I went to Boris’s house for a short rest and then was off by car to Rostov-on-Don, the last Russian city before Donetsk. I was driven in a black Lexus by a kind Russian businessman named Vladimir along with German, the founder of the humanitarian aid group known as “Leningrad Volunteers.” The car was indeed loaded with humanitarian aid to take to Donbas. After some short introductions, and my dad joke about the “Lexus from Texas,” we were off on our 20-hour journey at a brisk pace of about 110 kilometers an hour.

We arrived in Rostov in the evening and checked into the Sholokhov Loft Hotel, named after Mikhail Sholokhov, Rostov’s favorite son who wrote the great novel And Quite Flows the Don. We were told that, until recently, a portrait of the titular head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, had adorned the lobby wall. They took this down after members of the Wagner Group invaded Rostov, putting fear in many of the residents. Now, the hotel only has Hollywood movie posters decorating the walls.

In the early afternoon the next day, my translator Sasha arrived from her hometown of Krasnodar, Russia, a seven-hour train ride from Rostov. Sasha, who is 22 years old, is a tiny red-headed woman who quickly turned out to be one of the most interesting people I met on my journey.

As Sasha explained to me, she has been supporting humanitarian work in Donbas since the age of 12. She told me that she derived her interest in this work from her grandmother who raised her in the “patriotic spirit” of the USSR. As Sasha explained, her parents were too busy working to do much raising of her at all. Sasha, who is from the mainland of Russia, attends the University of Donetsk to live in solidarity with the people who have been under attack there since 2014.

At age 22, Sasha, who wore open-toed sandals even when we traveled to the front lines, is one of the bravest people I have ever met, and she certainly disabused me of any notion that I was doing anything especially brave by going to the Donbas. But, of course, as Graham Greene once wrote, “with a return ticket, courage becomes an intellectual exercise” anyway.

We quickly set out on our approximately three or four-hour drive to Donetsk City, with a brief stop at a passport control office now run by the Russian Federation subsequent to the September 2022 referendum in which the people of Donetsk and three other Ukrainian republics voted to join Russia.

I was again questioned by officials at this stop, but for only 15 minutes or so. I just resigned myself to the fact that, as an American traveling through Russia at this time, I was not going to go through any border area without some level of questioning. However, the tone of the questioning was always friendly.

We arrived in Donetsk City, a small but lovely town along the Kalmius River, without incident. Our first stop was at the Leningrad Volunteers warehouse to unload some of the aid we had brought and to meet some of the local volunteers. Almost all of these volunteers are life-long residents of Donetsk, and nearly all of them wore military fatigues and have been fighting the Ukrainian forces as part of the Donetsk militia for years, many since the beginning of the conflict in 2014.

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Members of the Donetsk militia escort Ukrainian prisoners of war in the Donbas. The militias have been fighting the Ukrainian Army, backed by the U.S., since the war really started in 2014. [Source: medium.com]

This is something I cannot impress upon the reader enough. While we are often told that these fighters in the Donbas are Russians or “Russian proxies,” this is simply not true. The lion’s share of fighters are locals of varying ages, some quite old, who have been fighting for their homes, families and survival since 2014.

While there have been Russian and international volunteers who have supported these forces—just as there were international volunteers who went to support the Republicans in Spain in the 1930s—they are mostly local.

Of course, this changed in February 2022 when Russia began the SMO. Nonetheless, the locals of Donetsk continue to fight, now alongside the Russian forces.

The lie of “Russian proxies” fighting in the Donbas after 2014 is actually one of the smaller ones of the Western mainstream press, for the claim at least acknowledges that there has been such fighting. Of course, the mainstream media have tried to convince us that there was never such fighting at all and that the Russian SMO beginning in February 2022 was completely “unprovoked.” This is the big lie that has been peddled in order to gain the consent of the Western populations to support Ukraine militarily.

What is also ignored is the fact that this war was escalating greatly before the beginning of the SMO and this escalation indeed provoked it. Thus, according to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), a 57-member organization including many Western countries, including the United States, there were about 2,000 cease-fire violations in the Donbas just in the weekend before the SMO began on February 24, 2022.

In a rare moment of candor, Reuters reported on February 19, 2022, “Almost 2,000 ceasefire violations were registered in eastern Ukraine by monitors for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on Saturday, a diplomatic source told Reuters on Sunday. Ukrainian government and separatist forces have been fighting in eastern Ukraine since 2014.”

Jacques Baud, a Swiss intelligence and security consultant and former NATO military analyst, further explains the precipitating events of the SMO:

“[A]s early as February 16, Joe Biden knew that the Ukrainians had begun shelling the civilian population of Donbass, putting Vladimir Putin in front of a difficult choice: to help Donbass militarily and create an international problem, or to stand by and watch the Russian-speaking people of Donbass being crushed.

…This is what he explained in his speech on February 21.

On that day, he agreed to the request of the Duma and recognized the independence of the two Donbass Republics and, at the same time, he signed friendship and assistance treaties with them.

The Ukrainian artillery bombardment of the Donbass population continued, and, on 23 February, the two Republics asked for military assistance from Russia. On 24 February, Vladimir Putin invoked Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which provides for mutual military assistance in the framework of a defensive alliance.

In order to make the Russian intervention totally illegal in the eyes of the public we deliberately hid the fact that the war actually started on February 16. The Ukrainian army was preparing to attack the Donbass as early as 2021, as some Russian and European intelligence services were well aware. Jurists will judge.”

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Jacques Baud [Source: libya360.wordpress.com]

Of course, none of this was news to the people I met in Donetsk, for they had been living this reality for years. For example, Dimitri, a young resident of Donetsk who has been fighting since 2014 along with his mother and father, told me quite exasperatedly as he pointed to some of the weapons and ammunition behind him, “what is all this stuff doing here? Why have we been getting this since 2014? Because the war has been going on since then.”

Dimitri, who was studying at the university when the conflict began, can no longer fight due to injuries received in the war, including damage to his hearing which is evidenced by the earplugs he wears. He hopes he can go back to his studies.

Just a few days before my arrival in Donetsk, Dimitri’s apartment building was shelled by Ukrainian forces, just as it had been in 2016. Like many in Donetsk, he is used to quickly repairing the damage and going on with his life.

Dimitri took me to the Donetsk airport and nearby Orthodox church and monastery which were destroyed in fighting between the Ukrainian military and Donetsk militia forces back in 2014-2015. Dimitri participated in the fighting in this area back then, explaining that during that time, this was the area of the most intense fighting in the world. But you would not know this from the mainstream press coverage that had largely ignored this war before February 2022.

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Bridge near the Donetsk airport which was destroyed in 2015 by Donetsk militia forces to prevent Ukrainian troops and tanks from crossing. [Source: Photo courtesy of Dan Kovalik]

One of the first individuals I interviewed in Donetsk was 36-year-old Vitaly, a big guy with a chubby, boyish face who wore a baseball hat with the red Soviet flag with the hammer and sickle. Vitaly, the father of three children, is from Donetsk and has been fighting there for four years, including in the very tough battle for the steel plant in Mariupol in the summer of 2022. He decided to take up arms after friends of his were killed by Ukrainian forces, including some who were killed by being burned alive by fascist forces—the same forces that, we are told, do not exist. Vitaly, referring to the mainstream Western media, laughed when saying, “they’ve been saying we’ve been shelling ourselves for nine years.”

Vitaly has personally fought against soldiers wearing Nazi insignia, and he is very clear that he is fighting fascism. Indeed, when I asked him what the Soviet flag on his hat meant to him, he said that it signified the defeat over Nazism, and he hopes he will contribute to this again.

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Ukrainian soldiers with Nazi insignia on their helmets. [Source: nbcnews.com]

When I asked him about claims that Russia had intervened with soldiers in the war prior to February 2022 as some allege, he adamantly denied this, as did everyone else I interviewed in Donetsk. However, he has witnessed the fact that Polish and UK soldiers have been fighting with the Ukrainian military since the beginning. Vitaly opined that, given what has transpired over the past nine years, he does not believe that the Donbas will ever return to Ukraine, and he certainly hopes it will not. Vitaly told me quite stoically that he believes he will not see peace in his lifetime.

During my stay in Donetsk, I twice had dinner with Anastasia, my interpreter during my first trip to the Donbas in November. Anastasia teaches at the University of Donetsk. She has been traveling around Russia, including to the far east, telling of what has been happening in the Donbas since 2014 because many in Russia themselves do not fully understand what has been going on. She told me that as she was recounting her story, she found herself reliving her trauma from nine years of war and feeling overwhelmed.

Anastasia’s parents and 13-year-old brother live near the front lines in the Donetsk Republic, and she worries greatly about them. Anastasia is glad that Russia has intervened in the conflict, and she indeed corrected me when I once referred to the Russian SMO as an “invasion,” telling me that Russia did not invade. Rather, they were invited and welcomed in. That does seem to be the prevailing view in Donetsk as far as I can tell.

During my five-day trip to Donetsk, I was taken to two cities within the conflict zone—Yasinovataya and Gorlovka. I was required to wear body armor and a helmet during this journey, though wearing a seatbelt was optional, if not frowned upon.

While Donetsk City, which certainly sees its share of shelling, is largely intact and with teeming traffic and a brisk restaurant and café scene, once we got out of the city, this changed pretty quickly.

Yasinovataya showed signs of great destruction, and I was told that a lot of this dated back to 2014. The destruction going back that far included a machine factory which is now being used as a base of operations for Donetsk forces and the adjacent administrative building which looks like it could have been an opera house before it was shelled.

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Destruction of homes from Ukrainian army shelling in Yasinovataya. [Source: tellerreport.com]

For its part, the city center of Gorlovka looked largely unmolested with signs of street life and even had an old trolley, clearly from the Soviet era, running through the center of town. But the outskirts of Gorlovka certainly showed signs of war. In both cities, one could frequently hear the sounds of shelling in the distance.

In Gorlovka, we met with Nikoli, nicknamed “Heavy.” Nikoli looks like a Greek god, standing at probably 6 feet, 5 inches, and all muscle. I joked with him while I was standing next to him that I felt like I was appearing next to Ivan Drago in Rocky IV. He got the joke and laughed. While a giant of a man, he seemed very nice and with a strong moral compass.

He led us to a makeshift Orthodox chapel in the cafeteria of what was a school, but which is now the base of operations for his Donetsk militia forces. He told us that, even now after the SMO began, about 90% of the forces in Gorlovka are still local Donetsk soldiers, and the other 10% are Russians. Again, this is something we rarely get a sense of from the mainstream press.

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Ukrainian army shelling being carried out around Gorlovka. [Source: plenglish.com]

Nikoli, while sitting in front of the makeshift chapel, explained that, while he still considers himself Ukrainian—after all he was born in Ukraine—he said that Donetsk would never go back to Ukraine because Ukraine had “acted against God” when it began to attack its own people in the Donbas. He made it clear that he was prepared to fight to the end to ensure the survival of the people of Donetsk, and I had no doubt that he was telling the truth about that.

At my request, I met with the First Secretary of the Donetsk section of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), Boris Litvinov. Boris, who has also served in the Donetsk parliament, explained that the Communist Party under his leadership had been one of the leaders and initiators of the 2014 Referendum in which the people of Donetsk voted to become an autonomous republic and leave Ukraine.

According to Boris, about 100 members of the Donetsk section of the CPRF are serving on the front lines of the conflict. Indeed, as Boris explained, the CPRF supports the Russian SMO, only wishing that it had commenced in 2014. Boris is clear that the war in Ukraine is one over the very survival of Russia (regardless of whether it is capitalist or socialist) and that Russia is fighting the collective West that wants to destroy Russia.

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Boris Litvinov [Source: histoiresociete.com]

Boris compares the fight in the Donbas to the fight of the Republicans against the fascists in Spain in the 1930s, and he says that there are international fighters from all over the world (Americans, Israelis, Spanish and Colombians, for example) who are fighting alongside the people of Donbas against the fascists just as international fighters helped in Spain.

The last person I interviewed, again at my own request, was Olga Tseselskaya, assistant to the head of the Union of Women of the Republic of Donetsk and First Secretary of the Mothers’ United organization. The Mothers’ United organization, which has 6,000 members throughout the Donetsk Republic, advocates for and provides social services to the mothers of children killed in the conflict since 2014.

I was excited that Olga opened our discussion by saying that she was glad to be talking to someone from Pittsburgh because Pittsburgh and Donetsk City had once been sister cities.

I asked Olga about how she viewed the Russian forces now in Donetsk, and she made it clear that she supported their presence in Donetsk and believed that they were treating the population well. She adamantly denied the claims of mass rape made against the Russians earlier in the conflict.

Of course, it should be noted that the Ukrainian parliament’s commissioner for human rights, Lyudmila Denisova, who was the source of these claims, was ultimately fired because her claims were found to be unverified and without substantiation, but again the Western media has barely reported on that fact.

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Lyudmila Denisova [Source: ibtimes.sg]

When I asked Olga whether she agreed with some Western peace groups, such as the Stop the War Coalition in the UK, that Russia should pull its troops out of the Donbas, she disagreed, saying that she hates to think what would happen to the people of the Donbas if they did.

I think that this is something the people of the West need to come to grips with; that the government of Ukraine has done great violence against its own people in the Donbas, and that the people of the Donbas had every right to choose to leave Ukraine and join Russia. If Westerners understood this reality, they would think twice about “standing with” and continuing to arm Ukraine.

https://covertactionmagazine.com/2023/0 ... n-ukraine/

(Some of this seems awfully familiar, I think Dan is recycling some of his material.

I saw that photo of the woman holding the SKS rifle back in real time. There were several of her and her expression didn't change. They were marching captured Nazis through Donetsk. I'd bet she had lost someone.)

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War is a Racket… U.S. and NATO Arms Industries Make Record $400 BILLION in Sales from Proxy War With Russia

August 11, 2023

Western capitalism is at once a sponsor and an addict of war.

Western weapons manufacturers are popping champagne corks over record sales with total revenues hitting $400 billion for last year. According to media reports, this coming year-end will see that record figure exceeded by another salivating $50 billion.

Ukraine may be resembling a bloodbath, as we noted in last week’s editorial. But apparently, Western military corporations are swimming in a bonanza of profits and stock market investments.

Most of this lucrative new business stems from NATO’s proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, which is heading toward its second year. There is no sign of a diplomatic effort from the West or the Kiev regime it sponsors to end the bloodshed.

The main corporate beneficiaries making a financial killing from Ukraine are by far the American firms. They include such behemoths as Lockheed Martin, Boeing and RTX (formerly Raytheon). But also enjoying soaring profits are arms makers in other NATO countries: BAE in the United Kingdom, Airbus in France, Netherlands and Spain, Leonardo in Italy, and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

This week the Joe Biden administration requested another $24 billion in U.S. taxpayer-funded aid to Ukraine. It’s hard to keep track of the money flowing from NATO countries to prop up the Nazi regime in Kiev. Even the NATO authorities don’t seem to know the precise figures, such is the rampant corruption that is inevitably associated with the vast doling of funds. But estimates of total U.S. and NATO aid to Ukraine range from $150 billion to $200 billion over the past year alone.

What we are seeing is an audacious racket whereby the American and European public are subsidizing the funneling of their own taxpayers’ money into the coffers of weapons firms. And there is no democratic choice in the matter. It’s a fait accompli. Or, put another way, extortion.

Of course, too, part of this huge scam is the hefty financial cuts for the inner circle of the Kiev regime, including its puppet president, Vladimir Zelensky, and the brazenly sleazy defense chief Aleksy Reznikov. It is reckoned that at least $400 million has been grafted by the top members of the regime from the arms bazaar flowing into Ukraine. Reznikov has even boasted that his country serves as a testing ground for NATO weaponry.

Nearly a century ago, former U.S. Marine Corps General Smedley D Butler popularized the phrase, “war is a racket” as the title of his classic book in which he condemned how American capitalism profits obscenely from military invasions and killing.

Butler’s critique is as relevant today, perhaps more so, as evinced by the conflict in Ukraine.

Western media reports are increasingly admitting – albeit coyly – that the war is a disaster for the Kiev regime and, by extension, the NATO powers. The death toll among Ukrainian forces may be as high as 400,000 since the conflict erupted last February. The much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in early June has resulted in no territorial gains despite the horrendous casualties and despite the gargantuan supply of NATO weapons, training and logistical support.

A report in the Washington Post this week shows that most Ukrainian people are despairing of the grinding war and endless casualties. They see no point in the continuation of hostilities given the failure of the NATO-backed forces to make any advance against well-fortified Russian defense lines.

Yet against this grim reality, the U.S. and European officials keep running the taps of blood.

We see NATO leaders like Polish President Andrzej Duda this week urging for more weapons to be sent to Ukraine even while he concedes the military defeat so far.

Zelensky and his cronies are, not surprisingly, also demanding more NATO arms and claiming with bravado they will never negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Some people want this conflict to keep going because of their irrational Russophobia and simply because it is too lucrative for their own personal gain.

Where does democracy come into this? It doesn’t, whatsoever. Polls show that most Americans are opposed to the continuing supply of military aid to Ukraine. There are sound reasons to believe that most European citizens are also firmly against the fueling of a bloody war in which Ukrainian corpses keep piling higher. In addition, the perpetuation of this conflict runs the outrageous risk of spiraling out of control into an all-out war between the United States and Russia, the world’s biggest nuclear powers.

Against the backdrop of monstrous profiteering from violence and death are the mounting social and economic crises from poverty and deprivation in Western nations. Last year, saw a record number of suicides in the United States, some 49,000 people, caused by growing acute material and psychological distress. Despite the massive unmet basic human needs in their own societies, elite Western leaders chose to prioritize fueling a proxy war with Russia. The aid for Ukraine this week requested by the Biden administration exceeds what his administration is earmarking to help the U.S. Pacific state of Hawaii and other American homeland states devastated by storms and wildfires this summer.

What is even more despicable, the conflict in Ukraine could have been avoided if Western states had engaged with Russia to resolve its geo-strategic security concerns regarding the decades-long expansion of NATO and the U.S.-led deterioration in arms control treaties. It is still possible to end this conflict promptly if diplomacy were prioritized.

But the United States and its European lackeys have shown no impetus for diplomacy. They have become intoxicated by their delusional propaganda narratives about “defending Ukraine from Russian aggression”. The Russophobia among Western politicians and media has become so endemic that it seems impossible for any reasonable thinking to prevail. Western media blatantly censor any reports showing the Nazi nature of the Kiev regime, including its so-called Jewish president who lauds World War Two Ukrainian collaborators in the Nazi holocaust.

Lamentably, too, the astronomical profits from the war in Ukraine are a primary impediment to any peaceful settlement. Western arms corporations are among the most influential lobby groups that can buy the votes of lawmakers. The military-industrial complex (MIC) effectively controls government policy and media narratives in Western states. The nefarious influence as observed by Smedley Butler in the 1930s and later by Dwight Eisenhower in the 1960s is even more powerful and insidious today. The MIC has manifold more layers and dimensions to it now. And that goes not just for the United States but all Western capitalist economies. These economies are in effect war economies, run by and for weapons companies who dominate policy and public discourse via advertising in corporate media and financing think-tanks. In short, Western capitalism is at once a sponsor and an addict of war.

The continuation of the bloodletting and destruction in Ukraine is depravity. But, shamefully, it will go on because the Western forces driving it know of no other way. They are locked into an addictive slaughterhouse that defies all morality, legality and democratic principle.

There seems to be no other way than to finish this war by Russia eradicating completely the Nazi regime in Kiev. When the NATO counteroffensive finally falters soon, Russia needs to crush the Nazi regime once and for all. The Western powers and their Kiev cabal are incapable – and undeserving – of any other way.

https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023 ... th-russia/

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Attempted shelling of the Crimean bridge
August 12, 18:47

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The air defense of the RF Armed Forces shot down 2 missiles with which the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to attack the Crimean bridge. Presumably, the attack was carried out with converted S-200 missiles.
During the attack, smoke installations were turned on in the bridge area. The enemy continues to try to use the S-200 for shelling in the direction of Rostov and the Kerch Strait.

PS. During yesterday's strike by hypersonic missiles at Zhuliany airport, another Patriot air defense system was destroyed

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8561564.html

South Russian meridian
August 12, 22:30

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FORECAST FOR UKRAINE OR SOUTH RUSSIAN MERIDIAN

Dear readers!

As part of the “Experience of the Collective Mind” rubric, we have repeatedly engaged in practical futurology, trying to make both “long-range” global forecasts for a distance of about half a century, and short-term predictions related to current momentary issues. Needless to say, for us Russians, the most acute problem is the Ukrainian crisis, and our near future is viewed precisely through this prism. I myself, including in this blog, have repeatedly spoken out on this topic - the penultimate time in an article dated 04/11/2023. There, both I and readers tried to predict the development of events around the Ukrainian processes on a geopolitical scale. Exactly a third of a year has passed - a period not so long as to decisively confirm or refute what we then assumed, but enough to estimate whether events are developing in the direction

We then fixed the status of Ukraine as an incapacitated state (while finding out how the former Soviet republic achieved this deplorable title), suggested that it was probably destined to become a territorial and demographic reservoir for powerful neighbors - Russia and the conditional collective "West", which we considered as historical reincarnations of the Eastern and Western Roman Empires, respectively (hereinafter we will call them simply East and West, without quotes). Ukraine, finding itself between these Scylla and Charybdis (it was not the only one, the course of history gave rise to many phantom pseudo-states on the borders of East and West), could not, for various reasons, preserve the inheritance received from the USSR, and what happened, it happened, we are fine see. Ukraine has become a zone of conflict between the West and the East - I admit, that could do without it, but it did not, and as they say, the stuffing can no longer be turned back. It is now clear that the West failed in its attempt to “recapture” the former Ukrainian regions at relatively low cost, where the human and material resources of Ukraine itself, plus some material resources of the West, would have been consumables.

Of course, these attempts will continue for some time, being quite rational - the costs of the West in this segment are not particularly large, and Ukrainian losses, of course, belong to the category of low-value property. But the endlessly dull battle cannot continue, and in the Western political establishment there must be people who understand, although, to be honest, sometimes it takes aback from the degradation of this beau monde that hits the eyes.

The point here is not even in the obviously senile Biden - it is clear that the shameful old man is a decorative figure; no, the fact is that he is an irresistible indicator of the insanity of the entire political system, living in some kind of inhuman paradigm. If, according to the logic of this system, to put on the throne of the United States, and therefore the entire West, an idiotic fart is considered completely normal, then this is a looking glass, where there is no idea about the life, interests, common sense of billions of earthlings, and the inhabitants of the rotten Olympus are in some artificial fantasy. Obviously, in it the old shame at the head of state looks like a completely reasonable solution, but how to solve real problems in such an altered state of the psyche? .. - a question to which I have no answer.

Nevertheless, analyzing the array of various information on the Ukrainian crisis, I am ready to draw a cautious conclusion: now, threads and knots of future agreements are being invisibly woven between East and West at different levels and in different instances, including special services. What will it take shape? - of course, it is premature to argue, and yet some estimates are possible.
First of all, with a fair degree of confidence, I will undertake to say that we will have to observe a long-term “frozen” conflict along the lines of Korea or Cyprus.

Where and how will the “South Russian meridian” lie? - also, of course, it was written with a pitchfork even on the water, although I would venture to assume with caution that we, the East, boldly set our sights on wringing out Kharkov in the short term, while silently pulling Israel and the Jewish lobby into allies to solve this problem. I will also allow myself a cautious version - our special services are looking for approaches to encourage a coup d'état in Ukraine, most likely by the hands of the military ... And finally, another smoldering topic: the creeping occupation of western Ukraine by the closest NATO countries. I suspect that this process will develop with an accruing result, however, under fine pseudonyms, but who are you fooling? ..

These are the short-term forecasts I publish and, as always, I invite readers to discuss and debate, however, foreseeing an acute manic-depressive breakdown among other commentators. But this should be regarded as the inevitable costs of the genre. Therefore -
Sincerely,
sincerely yours Vsevolod Glukhovtsev. ©

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8562454.html

About dismissals of military commissars
August 13, 9:49 am

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About the dismissal of military commissars.

1. Massive purges of military commissars in Ukraine are primarily aimed at restoring the implementation of the plan for forced conscription into the army, since the resource of voluntary mobilization has long been exhausted and it is possible to drive into the Armed Forces of Ukraine only by force, while the targets are not met.

2. Non-compliance is connected not only with the fact that people are running or hiding from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also with the fact that the entire system from top to bottom was struck by corruption and some potential conscripts simply pay off, often giving the last, as a result of which the military commissars look like just robbers who bring people to poverty and take away for meat those who cannot pay off.

3. At the same time, such military commissariats interrupt the business of the Zelensky gang itself, which organizes a quiet trip abroad for co-opted members of the gang and those who pay well, which is confirmed by the numerous trips of "servants of the people" abroad under the current bans. In fact, the system of military registration and enlistment offices closed part of the ransom money for itself, and they pass by the common fund of the Zelensky gang.

4. Of course, they will try to present the purge among the military commissars as a fight against corruption and putting things in order. But in fact, we are talking about trying to increase the recruitment of cannon fodder, as required by the United States and NATO, as well as closing the financial flows associated with the payoff from mobilization to the common fund of the Zelensky gang. The system itself, as it was extremely corrupt (which the Zelensky gang independently signed), will remain so. At the same time, for ordinary Ukrainians, it was, is and will remain a vivid example of the thesis "Corruption kills." Although in the case of Ukraine, this is of course not the root cause of the ongoing horror, but one of the secondary striking effects of the Euromaidan.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8563352.html

The price of abandoning Russian gas
August 13, 13:01

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On the consequences of refusing Russian gas for the German chemical industry.

The price of abandoning Russian gas.

"Collapse of the chemical industry"

Handelsblatt reports ( https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehme ... 24976.html ): of all major manufacturers in the second quarter of 2023, a double-digit drop in turnover compared to the same period of the previous year. Management of chemical concerns count on recession in the industry at least until next year. And as a result, they are implementing austerity programs in the form of investment cuts, job cuts, and even the closure of entire enterprises.

Lanxess, for example, will close one plant in Krefeld (the second will be sold or also closed), the chemical distributor Brenntag will close 20 plants worldwide.

Although the "green" Minister of Economics Robert Habek, perhaps even rejoice: fewer chemical plants - less pollution.

@kanzlerdaddy - zinc

Actually, representatives of large German industrial capital warned about this collapse back in the first half of 2022 when they opposed Germany's participation in the sanctions campaign against Russia, since the consequences of this for German industry were obvious. But Germany's vassal dependence on the US proved irresistible, so a shot was fired in the foot, resulting in "independence from Russian gas" turning into dependence on more expensive American LNG and a drop in industrial production and profits with massive layoffs of workers and specialists, as well as the closure and conservation of part enterprises. As a result, there was an accelerated destruction of the economic model that Merkel formed. That model ensured the stable growth of the German economy and made it one of the leaders in Europe. Times are different these days. Germany's dependence on the United States has only increased, the country is teetering on the brink of recession and has already begun to lag behind Russia in terms of GDP. At the same time, the trends remain negative and no change for the better is visible, and where would it come from if cheap energy sources for German industry are not expected in the near future.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8563781.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Mon Aug 14, 2023 11:56 am

Grads in the hands of Ukraine
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 08/14/2023

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From the town of Druzhkovka, south of Kramatorsk, The Wall Street Journal commented this week that “Western governments have sent Ukraine some of the most sophisticated weapons in the world. However, Battery Commander Volodymyr Shujilov uses a 60-year-old Soviet rocket launcher that has become essential to both sides of this war." Despite the huge amounts of weapons shipped by Ukraine's Western partners, according to the article, two-thirds of the Ukrainian arsenal is still of Soviet origin, a Soviet dependency that shocks those who see it and annoys Ukrainian civil authorities eager to get rid of it. of that legacy.

The calculation does not seem exaggerated considering that, with few exceptions, the weapons available to the Ukrainian army during the war in Donbass have been of Soviet, Russian or Ukrainian origin, even despite the growing presence and help of the NATO in this period. It is no secret that since the outbreak of the war in the summer of 2014, Ukraine had begged its Western partners for weapons with which to fight Russia.. On that wish list were not yet the German Leopard tanks, the American F16 or the Israeli Iron Dome but much more modest weapons such as the Javelin anti-tank systems first or the Bayraktar drones later. The needs of this low-intensity war against an enemy that was not the Russian army limited the caliber of Ukraine's demands in its then imaginary battle against Moscow.

Ukraine still had a part of the enormous military industry inherited from the Soviet Union, a legacy that it has progressively dropped in its impetus to replace the industrial sector with services and agriculture. Faced with industry, whose products did not have their market in the European Union but mainly in the post-Soviet space, Ukraine saw in agriculture a way to become a sectoral superpower . The abandonment of the industry, including the military industry, and the effects that the Association Agreement with the European Union would have on it was one of the factors for the division between those who saw negative counterparts to the European path of Ukraine and those who saw it as the salvation of the country and its natural return to the european family In these years, Ukraine has still had companies of capital importance such as Motor Sich, which failed to privatize in the hands of Chinese investors due to the intervention in extremis of John Bolton. Capable of producing aerospace engines, the now-bombarded Zaporozhye factory supplied material to the Russian Federation in what, jokingly, used to be even described as Kiev's neocolonial relationship with Russia: Russia sold raw materials, mainly energy, cheaply, while that Ukraine exported finished industrial products.

That Soviet industrial legacy has practically disappeared between the reforms of the 1990s, the desire to privatize and deindustrialize post-Maidan Ukraine and the current war, which has destroyed an important part of the industry that had survived the different shock therapies, neoliberals. However, Ukraine still has another Soviet legacy: the preparation for defense against a possible war with NATO, which made the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic one of the most western geographical territories and, therefore, the most vulnerable. Much has already been said about the number of bases and other military infrastructure, but this legacy must also be extended to the enormous arsenals of weapons and ammunition inherited by Kiev after its independence and which, in some cases,

Despite everything, since 2014, Ukraine has made active use of that legacy of the country that it wants to erase from its memory and history. Moreover, a relevant part of the deliveries of weapons by NATO member countries has been precisely in the form of weapons of Russian or Soviet origin. Countries like Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, part of the Soviet Union or members of the former Warsaw Pact, have taken the opportunity to offer Ukraine their MiG aircraft or their Soviet-designed tanks in exchange for those stocks being replaced. by the United States and its allies with modern equipment and ideologically appropriate to the circumstances.

Faced with the logistical and training needs implied by the Western systems that Ukraine has begged for so much, equipment of Russian or Soviet origin can be easily introduced into Ukrainian military doctrine, much to the contrary of the wishes of the Kiev authorities, who they would have always preferred to completely replace their weapons of Soviet origin or design with NATO equipment. However, such systems are more expensive, require less accessible ammunition, and are more scarce than other types of weaponry that Ukraine is actively using, especially in the Donbass.

The Wall Street Journal specifically mentions the case of the HIMARS, crediting them with achieving great tactical successes for Ukraine. Its use against important civil and military infrastructures under Russian control is well known, such as the Antonovsky bridge where, used together with ammunition of Russian origin, they managed to destroy it and make the Russian defense of the territories on the right bank of the Dnieper river unfeasible. Ukraine has also used its HIMARS against a hotel in Melitopol, so small that it was impossible for a group of Russian soldiers to be there, or the Alchevsk bus depot. Russia accused Ukraine of using these weapons against the Elenovka prison, something that Ukraine denied, and that, like many other incidents of this war, may never be clarified.

As usual, each success is awarded to Western weapons, deliberately ignoring that it is generally used alongside the Ukrainian Armed Forces' own weapons. The same has happened in the Zaporozhie counteroffensive, where despite the prominence of Western equipment such as the Leopard or Bradley, the armored columns have always had a significant presence of tanks and armored vehicles of Russian origin.

The use of this weaponry, although logical considering that it comes from a country that is a major industrial power in the military sector, draws the attention of the press, who may be surprised at the dependence on Soviet weapons . "Few weapons symbolize that dependency like the BM-21 Grad, an icon of Soviet weaponry that entered service in 1963 and fires up to forty unguided rockets from the back of a truck."

It is striking that the constant use of Grads is surprising at this point, more than nine years after it began to be used against military targets, but also civilians, in the war in Donbass. The nature of the conflict, a land war in which aviation did not come into play until 2022, made artillery and multiple launch rocket systems the basis of the weapons used. While modern weaponry - American, of course - uses guided missiles where precision is the goal, the advantage of the Grad is the ease with which a target can be picked, the speed with which a load of ammunition can be fired and the fact that it “covers a whole field”. According to the Sukilov, commander of the 60th Brigade, "in a short period of time we can launch a lot of rockets on the enemy."

The use of Grads in this war, primarily in the Donbass, has been widely documented over the years. This ammunition was one of the main causes of the high casualties of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the summer of 2014, when their poor tactics led to large groups of soldiers being incomprehensibly besieged by the DPR and LPR militias. A simple and readily available weapon, the Grad have always been an integral part of the defense of the People's Republics and of the Ukrainian war effort, which during large phases of the war has primarily sought to saturate its targets with fire, either for destruction or as a prelude. the advance of his infantry. In that eagerness to cover fields, Ukraine has found all kinds of goals, sometimes hardly justifiable. The militias of the People's Republics also suffered the effects of the Grad fire, which caused heavy casualties in the first months of the war.

Since 2014, the use of these weapons has not been limited to legitimate targets. Grad's fire continues to be used to this day against towns and cities in Donbass, including residential neighborhoods in Donetsk, where, together with the 155mm artillery that Kiev has pleaded with its partners, they have created a constant danger to the civilian population in each and every one of the streets. Easy to use and move after use, therefore also difficult to destroy, the fire from the BM-21 Grad has become, for Donbass, a sign of the indiscriminate Ukrainian bombardments with which the Kiev authorities are ready to punish to the population. While expensive Western precision weapons are used against tactical and strategic targets, Cheaper systems continue to be used primarily as a form of collective punishment against the disloyal civilian population. Dehumanized since 2014 and denigrated assovoks , an insult dedicated to those nostalgic for the Soviet era, the population of Donbass is also punished using Soviet weapons that Ukraine tries to get rid of.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/08/14/grads ... more-27926

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Chronicle of the special military operation for August 13, 2023
August 13, 2023
Rybar

In the Yuzhnodonets direction, Ukrainian formations, at the cost of heavy losses, were able to gain a foothold on the northern outskirts of Urozhayne . At the same time, in the village, almost completely destroyed by Ukrainian artillery, Russian units retain control on the southern outskirts of the village.

In the Kherson direction , the enemy continues to hold a bridgehead in the area of ​​the Cossack Camps , bringing in boats to replenish personnel. Heavy fighting is also taking place near the Antonovsky Bridge: both sides use drones and artillery.

In the Kleshcheevka area in the Soledar direction , the situation has relatively stabilized: Russian paratroopers successfully repel attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the village from the south.

On the Orekhovsky section , the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to occupy several strongholds in a forest belt three kilometers east of Rabotino , but their further advance was stopped. Nevertheless, Ukrainian formations are preparing for a new wave of attacks.

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On the attempted passage of a civil vessel to Izmail

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On August 13, at about 6.40 Moscow time, in the southwestern part of the Black Sea, the patrol ship "Vasily Bykov" , which controlled shipping, discovered the dry cargo ship "Sukru Okan" under the flag of Palau, en route to the Ukrainian port of Izmail . According to our information, the ship's crew did not respond to requests from Russian sailors. On the contrary, the transponder was turned off on the Sukru Okan, and the cargo ship, increasing its speed, tried to get away from the Bykov along the Bulgarian territorial waters (judging by the MarineTraffic service).

As a result of radio communications, the ship slowed down, and an inspection squad from a Ka-29 helicopter landed on board . After that, Sukru Okan again continued to move towards the Ukrainian shores. The action of a civilian container ship is a logical continuation of the recent passage of an Israeli dry cargo ship a couple of weeks ago, despite the statements of the Russian authorities - this is how the reaction of the Black Sea Fleet to provocative actions is being assessed.

This is confirmed by US intelligence activity at the time of the incident: an MQ-9A Reaper was in the air directly above the ship's patrol area , and a US Navy EP-3E electronic intelligence aircraft was in the air to the northwest . And in this situation there is another negative side: every time the ships of the Black Sea Fleet entered the area, they were attacked by Ukrainian unmanned boats, and guidance was provided by American planes and UAVs.

Today, in the southwestern part of the Black Sea, the American RQ-4B drone was conducting reconnaissance , and another Reaper came to replace the MQ-9A . Given the previous strike attempts and the activity of the Ukrainian formations at Zmeiny , the Russian fleet should be ready for any event.

The situation on the front line and the fighting

In the Starobelsky direction, the situation has not changed significantly. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are regrouping their subunits and fixing themselves on the achieved lines, artillery strikes are being carried out on the strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the turn of Raigorodka - Karmazinovka, infantry from the 68th separate Jaeger brigade tried to attack our positions, but Russian artillery did not allow the enemy to develop the offensive. In Serebryansky forestry, the enemy is trying to regain lost positions with the forces of 67 Ombr, but was not successful.

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In the Soledar direction near Kleshcheevka , the situation is relatively stable today. Yesterday, Ukrainian formations again tried to advance to the north of the village, where they were met by Russian paratroopers. As a result of the ensuing battle, the fighters of the Russian Airborne Forces not only repelled the attack, but also captured seven members of the Ukrainian 5th assault brigade. According to some reports, the RF Armed Forces were able to slightly improve the situation in Kleshcheevka.

At the turn of Kurdyumovka - Ozaryanovka , from 4 in the morning, Ukrainian tanks from closed firing positions massively fired at positions in the villages, as if preparing for an attack. However, there have been no assault attempts so far.

At the same time, one of the battalions of the 1st brigade of the President of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which had previously operated in the Limansk direction , arrived at this site . Also on the VerumReactor channel they report about an additional two mechanized battalions and a MLRS division from near the Liman . On the northern flank, there is a concentration of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Razdolivka . But for now, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are attacking with small infantry groups. It even comes to the point that one or two people go on the attack.

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In the Yuzhnodonetsk direction, at night, consolidated detachments of the 35th and 37th brigades of the marine corps of the Ukrainian Navy, with the support of artillery fire from the 55th brigade and tanks from the 1st brigade, entrenched themselves in the northern part of Urozhayne . According to interceptions of conversations between members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukrainian marines took up all-round defense, expecting an attack by the Russian Armed Forces.

Despite statements about the withdrawal of Russian Armed Forces fighters from Urozhaynoye, the Kaskad OBTF is still holding the line in the south of the village. The onslaught of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not subside: over the past two days, Ukrainian units have attacked the positions of the Russian army with a total force of more than a hundred people and 15-20 armored vehicles.

To date, the Ukrainian command has set the task of establishing full control over Urozhayne, so the rolls are likely to intensify. To do this, three assault groups of 128 mod trot were transferred to the controlled part of Staromayorsky .


Also, enemy detachments attacked the positions of the RF Armed Forces in the forest belt west of Staromayorsky and were able to occupy one strong point. At the same time, the infantry group of the 1st brigade tried to swoop through at Priyutnoye , but the attack was repulsed, as reported by Voin DV .

Nevertheless, an increase in the number of attacks should be expected. The lack of significant successes at the front forces the Ukrainian command to demonstrate at least some results at any cost, and looming control over the destroyed Harvest became goal No. 1.

Paratroopers of the 3rd Assault Battalion of the 80th Airborne Infantry Brigade of Ukraine have already arrived in Bolshaya Novoselka , and the 4th Battalion of the 15th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard is expected to move from Komar in the near future.

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At the Orekhovsky sector, by the end of yesterday, enemy attacks on Rabotino had ceased. The Armed Forces of Ukraine were driven out of the eastern outskirts, but they were able to take part of their positions 3 kilometers east of the village, as well as in adjacent areas to the northeast.

Somewhere from 9 am, infantry groups of the 4th battalion of the 46th detachment, under the cover of armored vehicles, resumed the assault, using the bridgehead they had received. Drones detected clusters of personnel and several tanks, which immediately changed their position. Also, the artillery crew hit the enemy M777 howitzer, the work was corrected by UAV operators.

So far, gun battles are going on. The same activity as yesterday is not observed, but the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already moving more freely through the landings in the east indicates some problems in their defeat. In addition, Ukrainian formations maintain the combat potential of their forces by rotating twice a day: paratroopers of the 46th detachment of military units are replaced by reinforcement units from the 15th brigade of the Kara-Dag National Guard and vice versa.

And now the situation remains tense. After several unsuccessful assaults on the forehead, the enemy began to gradually bite into the east, and in the rear in the direction of Ilchenkovo , according to the interception, the DRG was hiding, waiting for a breakthrough and aiming artillery.

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In the Kherson direction, west of the Cossack Camps, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold a bridgehead. Boats and boats are rotated, the wounded and the dead are taken out. Reinforcements from the 126th Terodefense Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were transferred to the left bank the other day. Videos with captured fighters from the 1822nd battalion of the RF Armed Forces began to diverge on the Web: Russian military personnel are used to maximally discredit the RF Armed Forces in this area and sow panic.

The situation is still difficult, but not everything that Ukrainian resources publish should be believed. Russian troops continue to work: two Ukrainian assault groups of the 126th arr. TRO tried to attack with the support of the forces and means of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the right bank, but were stopped and thrown back from the Cossack Camps. This morning, fresh reinforcements were transferred to the bridgehead, Ukrainian formations are trying with all their might to expand the zone of control. Continuous fire is being conducted on Russian settlements.

Heavy fighting continues under the Antonovsky Bridge . Russian assault detachments are forced to engage in close combat for nearby dachas and try to dislodge enemy DRGs, which are constantly being transferred to the left bank of the Dnieper. As for the Russian troops, as for the Ukrainian, drones and artillery are constantly working from both sides. A similar situation is developing on the islands near Kherson , where neither side has clear and confident control. Over the past 24 hours, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired at these areas more than 20 times.

Tanks were delivered to Veletensky (working from closed firing positions along the left bank). The assault detachments of the 121st brigade of the territorial defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (the very ones that have been learning to force water barriers in recent months) have been transferred to “zero”. And their appearance against the backdrop of regular attacks by the DRG and increased artillery fire indicates possible attempts to strike from the right bank and land troops in the third place.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

In the Kursk region, Ukrainian formations fired at the village of Volfino in the Glushkovsky district: the enemy fired ten shells, as a result of which one house was damaged, three people were injured, and they were provided with medical assistance.

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In the Belgorod region, an enemy UAV was shot down over the village of Solomino, Belgorod region , there were no casualties or destruction. Later, the enemy tried to attack the capital of the region: the wreckage of the drone damaged the lining of one of the multi-storey buildings and 15 cars, no one was injured.

According to Mash, the enemy attacked the Tikhvin Church in Shebekino and the bus station from the Grad MLRS, no one was injured. Local residents also reported shelling of the Balki farm in Shebekinsky Okrug , but there was no official information about the consequences of the attack.

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Ukrainian formations continue to shell the civilian infrastructure of the Donetsk People's Republic , including with the use of cluster munitions. The enemy fired over 180 shells and made 56 attacks. Four residential buildings in the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk were damaged , as well as a transformer substation, two thousand people were left without electricity. As a result of the shelling, one man was killed, two people received shrapnel wounds.

On the highway on the way from Zaitsevo to Gorlovka , several cars were hit by the Armed Forces of Ukraine: one person was killed, two were injured. During the day, the enemy also fired on Yasinovataya , Ozeryanovka and Kurdyumovka .

In the Zaporizhia region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine shelled the village of Radionovka in the Melitopol urban district during the day , but no one was injured. Grass caught fire around the village.

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Ukrainian formations continue to terrorize the population of the left bank of the Kherson region . As a result of strikes on Gola Prystan , Gornostaevka , Kakhovka , Krynki , Radensk , Staraya Zburyevka and others, civilian infrastructure was severely damaged.

The enemy caused the most serious damage to the Cossack Camps and Aleshki , which are shelled almost continuously.

Political events
On the supply of German military equipment for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine


The other day, a convoy with armored vehicles on a trawl covered with an awning moved eastward through the German Idstein towards Frankfurt am Main. Judging by the visual outlines, the trucks were transporting Bergepanzer 2 (BPz 2) armored recovery vehicles (ARVs) based on the Leopard 1 tank. This ARV is on the list of weapons transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the German authorities, so in this case the transportation of BPz 2 is not excluded to Ukraine.

In conditions of active battles and regular losses of armored vehicles, including Western-style ones, auxiliary equipment is sometimes even more important than a tank or an infantry fighting vehicle. With its help, it is possible to pull out stuck or damaged weapons and carry out at least minor repairs in the fields right on the front line, which significantly reduces recovery time.

On the fate of military commissars in Ukraine

The recent scandal with military commissars in Ukraine has come to a logical climax. Zelensky announced that he was firing the heads of territorial recruitment centers in all 24 regions of the country. Over the past few weeks, 112 criminal cases have been opened against TCC employees, 33 officials have been arrested. In most cases, this was bribery for "deviating" the call, or helping to issue fake certificates of incapacity, thanks to which it was possible to leave the country.

Such a purge provides a unique opportunity for the Zelensky regime: on the one hand, to show Western partners their readiness for reforms and an imaginary fight against systemic corruption, on the other hand, to appoint the “right” people to new positions, who will be much more accommodating. However, even if experienced front-line soldiers are put in place of the stealing officials, they will also become part of the system over time . Physicians and border guards are also involved in the corruption vertical, and most importantly, the regulatory authorities themselves, for whom it is simply unprofitable to refuse such a “gold mine” - they simply do not know how to live differently.

For ordinary Ukrainians, these changes hardly bode well: we should expect a new wave of mobilization, and this time the recruitment of "cannon fodder" will be monitored much more strictly. The higher the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front, the stronger the screws are tightened in the rear: the border guard service of Ukraine reported that at least 20 men of military age are trying to leave the country every day by illegal means.

And despite the fact that a “white ticket” costs an average of 10 to 15 thousand dollars , few people want to die for the Ukrainian regime “voluntarily” .

On amendments to the draft law on national minorities

A draft law has been submitted to the Verkhovna Rada, according to which it is planned to bring the law on national minorities in line with the European Convention on Human Rights and the Charter of Regional Languages. This is done because of the negative representation of the Venice Commission on the current legislation.

Nevertheless, this draft states that the rights and freedoms of national minorities may be restricted in the interests of protecting national security, territorial integrity and maintaining public order. Moreover, these norms will not apply to Russians and the Russian language under any circumstances.

On the support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by Western countries

French Defense Minister Sebastian Lecornu said that the French military has completed the training of 6,000 APU soldiers and the country will continue to do so. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke about the usefulness of the talks in Saudi Arabia and expressed hope for their continuation in the future, as they allegedly increase "pressure on Russia." Journalists from the American edition of The Wall Street Journal write that Western politicians are beginning to prepare the ground for the next offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the spring of 2024 due to the fact that so far there are no significant offensives during this counter-offensive.

Pressure on the canonical UOC of the Moscow Patriarchate

[youtube]http://rybar.ru/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/agapit.mov[/youtube]
A large group of Ukrainian citizens is trying to block the entrance to the church of Agapit of the Caves, the only church in the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra, where the Ukrainian authorities allowed parishioners of the canonical UOC-MP to hold services. An activist also burst into the religious building, who began to smash church utensils and broke the glass near the icon of Jesus Christ. Believers in the canonical Church, in turn, continue to pray at the main gate of the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

Regarding that last item,like Anaxarchos said back in in 2015, 'Ukrainian nationalism is Nazism..

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Global South Joining Peace Talks on Ukraine, a Balancing Act Driven by Pragmatism
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on AUGUST 12, 2023
Kanwal Sibal

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Representatives gathered during a meeting of National Security advisors in Jeddah

The West’s moral argument over the Russia-Ukraine conflict has made little impression on the Global South


If the intention is to genuinely explore a solution to the Ukraine conflict through dialogue and diplomacy, the recent “peace talks” organized at the initiative of the West without including Russia are hardly likely to produce any breakthrough.

The meeting of over 40 nations that was held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, last week, and a similar conference on the Ukrainian peace plan organized in Copenhagen, Denmark, in June, with 15 countries participating, including G7 and EU members, as well as nations from the Global South such as India, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye, failed to produce any substantial outcomes. Both meetings were attended by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, testifying to the diplomatic push by the US to draw the Global South into discussing peace in Ukraine.

Gathering the support of major countries from the Global South for the Ukrainian peace plan was the clear purpose of both the Denmark and Saudi Arabia conclaves. The heavyweights in the Global South have largely maintained a “neutral” posture on the conflict, with many refusing to condemn Russia, support the imposition of sanctions, or back Western efforts to isolate Moscow diplomatically.

The resistance in the Global South to the historical hegemony of the West is growing. The West, no doubt, remains powerful and still controls major international political and financial institutions. The financial clout of the US cannot be ignored. The Global South would want to maintain productive ties with the West, but that does not mean subscribing to its agenda on Russia.

If Russia is defeated strategically, as is the declared goal of the West, it can only result in consolidating the West’s global hegemony at a time when the prospects of a more multipolar world are opening up. Even if the non-Western world does not approve of Russia’s military action against Ukraine and accepts that Ukrainian sovereignty and the UN Charter have been violated, it does not necessarily mean that they support the elimination of Russia as a counterpoise to Western dominance.

The Global South, with the experience of Western colonialism, is fully aware of the several instances where the West has violated the UN Charter and the sovereignty of other countries, and, contrary to what is being argued by the West, this is not the first such case since 1945. The moral argument of the West on Russia’s actions in Ukraine therefore makes little impression.

The West is frustrated with its failure to obtain the support of developing countries for its position on the Ukraine conflict, as well as its inability to persuade the non-Western world that the hostilities are not merely a European conflict, and that it has larger implications for the global order. They argue that if Russia is allowed to blatantly violate the sovereignty of a UN member state without any provocation, many weaker countries will become vulnerable to similar aggression by more powerful neighbors in the future. (That such an argument can be made unselfconsciously is surprising.)

The Denmark and Saudi Arabia meetings are the result of the determination of the US and others to persuade and pressure key countries of the Global South to engage with Ukraine, as a victim of “Russian aggression,” on its peace plan. This, they would argue, would be consistent with their position of not taking sides.

Even if these meetings do not endorse the Ukrainian peace plan in its entirety – as would undoubtedly be the case – the fact that major countries of the Global South are engaging with Ukraine can be projected as a diplomatic success for the West and a setback for Russian diplomacy, as Russia is seen as benefitting from perceptions in the Global South that the West is conducting a proxy war against it through Ukraine. Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff has, expectedly, characterized the Saudi Arabia meeting as a “huge blow to Russia.”

More importantly, if Ukrainian ideas of the road to peace are included in efforts led by the Global South to explore ways to end the conflict, this would also make it easier for the West to politically justify a recourse to the peace option. This is especially true now that it is becoming clear that the Western strategy – which involves attempting to isolate Russia, cause its economic collapse, inflict a strategic defeat, and enable Ukraine to recover enough territory claimed by Russia to force it to the negotiating table – has not succeeded.

This could be a fallback option for the West, but for the time being, there is talk that another meeting will be held with the participation of the Global South, that working groups will be formed to discuss specific points, eventually leading to a peace summit under the auspices of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.

Saudi Arabia’s statement on the meeting has no substance, mostly confined to listing the countries which participated and noting they had agreed on the importance of continuing consultations to pave the way for peace.

The central flaw in this Western strategy is that no road to peace can be opened if only one party to the conflict is its driving force. Russia was not invited to the Denmark and Saudi Arabia meetings. Unless Russia is party to any peace process, no progress can be made, unless the unrealistic assumption is that Russia will be defeated militarily and that a peaceful solution can be imposed on it. By maneuvering to have Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a war criminal by the ICC, Western leaders have made it impossible for themselves to negotiate with him. Ukraine too, under a law it has introduced, cannot negotiate with Putin.

Russia has its own concerns, especially those related to its security, and these are at the root of the conflict, however much the West tries to evade the issue by pretending that the expansion of NATO has nothing to do with Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. The Russians insist on the principle of “indivisible security” in Europe, endorsed more than once by the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), better known as the US Helsinki Commission.Russia is unwilling to cede on the issue of the incorporation of Crimea and four other predominantly Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine into the Russian Federation, as well as the issue of Ukraine’s neutral status, that is, no NATO membership.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has dismissed Ukraine’s peace plan as “a senseless ultimatum to Russia” and noted that “no meetings on the Ukraine crisis add any value without Russia’s participation or regard for its interests.” Russia wants “Ukraine’s neutral, non-bloc, and nuclear-free status” to be confirmed and the new territorial realities recognized. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov believes that the Saudi Arabia meeting was “a reflection of the West’s attempt to continue futile, doomed efforts” to mobilize the Global South behind Zelensky’s position.

Russia hopes that its BRICS allies and other partners who attended the meeting will share their assessments with it in keeping with existing agreements. The West has projected China’s presence at the Saudi meeting (it did not attend the Denmark gathering) as a diplomatic success, construing it as some dilution of its support for Russia. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has since spoken to his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, to state that Beijing will always take a “fair” position on the Ukraine conflict.

Knowing that the Western-led process to make Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan the basis of a potential solution to the conflict, while excluding Russia and presenting it with a consensus without Moscow participating in forging it, will lead to nowhere, the question can be asked as to why major countries of the Global South such as India, Brazil, and South Africa are attending these meetings, and why China, too, decided to attend the Jeddah gathering after it skipped theCopenhagen one.

Generally speaking, the BRICS countries of the Global South want to convey that they are interested in peace because of the serious consequences of the Ukraine conflict for developing countries and are, therefore, open to hearing all sides. As their “neutrality” is seen as tilted in favor of Russia, attending Western-sponsored meetings on the conflict can be seen as a balancing act. Relations with the US remain very important for them in many ways, and hence a degree of willingness to accommodate it on Ukraine peace talks.

A desire to diplomatically oblige Saudi Arabia, with which ties have expanded at the bilateral level, and whose stature is rising internationally under its modernizing Crown Prince, is part of the equation. China has developed close ties with Saudi Arabia. It had already proposed its own peace plan and had visited both Kiev and Moscow to “sell” it. This is part of China positioning itself as an independent actor pursuing its national interest autonomously.

India’s participation in both the Danish and Saudi meetings can be understood in light of many of these general considerations. If India advocates a recourse to dialogue and diplomacy to end the conflict, then it cannot refuse to attend a meeting ostensibly promoting a peace plan. This also provides it with an occasion to draw attention at these forums to the deleterious consequences of the conflict on developing countries. As current chair of the G20, and with the G20 summit in September in the offing, India is also obliged to play its cards with finesse.

At the Saudi Arabia meeting, the Indian national security adviser made the point that the whole world and especially the Global South was bearing the brunt of the situation, and recalled that India’s approach has been and always will be to promote dialogue and diplomacy. He noted that several peace proposals had been put forward, each with some positive points but none that was acceptable to both sides.

The key question that needed to be addressed at the Saudi Arabia meeting was whether a solution that was acceptable to all relevant stakeholders could be found. He affirmed that “India will remain an active and willing partner to find a lasting and comprehensive solution”. India thus maintained its “neutral” position at the Saudi Arabia meeting.

Kanwal Sibal is a retired Indian foreign secretary and a former Ambassador to Russia between 2004 and 2007. He also held ambassadorial positions in Turkey, Egypt, France and was Deputy Chief of Mission in Washington DC. In 2017, he received the Padma Shree — the fourth highest civilian award — from the President of India for public service. In the same year, he was decorated by the Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for Contributions to International Cooperation.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/08/ ... n-ukraine/

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The West and the War in Ukraine: Selling and Buying Hopium
Posted on August 14, 2023 by Yves Smith

The kinetic war in Ukraine has gotten less attention over the summer than in past periods due to the much-previewed-and-hyped counteroffensive in the southern oblast of Zaporzhizhia being worse than a bust. Yet we’ll give some examples below of how the Western press, to a large degree, is applying unimaginable amounts of porcine maquillage to Ukraine’s deteriorating situation. At best, this is a desperate effort to keep the war going in the hope that somehow, someway, luck or divine intervention will shift the tide in the West’s favor. But the damage to Ukraine is catastrophic, and the cost to the European economy from sanctions blowback, to arms stocks in the US and NATO member states, and of the fiscal commitment distorting national priorities (guns over butter in societies already showing social decay and fracture) is not shabby either.

From time to time we’ve repeated the advice we first heard from the investment bankers at Lazard to their CEO clients, of the dangers of believing their own PR. Here we see this psychopathy as a mass phenomenon as too many individuals in or near positions of authority keep repeating things that are bunk and genuinely seem to believe them. And that is occurring even as more and more Administration-friendly outlets are signaling the counteroffensive is going badly.

Another sign of problems are the complaints from the US and NATO officials that Ukraine deviated from its orders training of “combined arms warfare” (gotta love those talismanic phrases) to small unit infantry attacks after its initial attempts fared badly against heavy Russian mining. It does not take a great deal of insight to recognize that this is pre-positioning the scapegoating of Ukraine. However, it goes unsaid that “combined arms warfare” US-style presupposes air supremacy, something Ukraine has never enjoyed in the conflict areas.


An optimistic view is the inconsistent messaging is a sign of divisions in policy-making circles, and specifically, of the realists (reported particularly to be military officials who know the West can’t win a land war against Russia) starting to get the upper hand.

But this apparent increase in “realism” still has a lot of fuzzy thinking. For instance, overwhelmingly, the op-eds that discuss peace talks or some other endgames, exhibit another pathology we’ve described: that the West is talking to itself about what Russia will accept as if that were true. Exhibit 1 is the frozen conflict idea, that Russia will agree to what amounts to a standstill. The wee problem with that is that Anthony Blinken stated in a Washington Post interview last fall, that the US would keep arming Ukraine after the war and planned to retake any territory Ukraine ceded to stop fighting now. From the Washington Post:

The Biden administration, convinced that Vladimir Putin has failed in his attempt to erase Ukraine, has begun planning for an eventual postwar military balance that will help Kyiv deter any repetition of Russia’s brutal invasion.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken outlined his strategy for the Ukrainian endgame and postwar deterrence…

Russia’s colossal failure to achieve its military goals, Blinken believes, should now spur the United States and its allies to begin thinking about the shape of postwar Ukraine — and how to create a just and durable peace that upholds Ukraine’s territorial integrity and allows it to deter and, if necessary, defend against any future aggression. In other words, Russia should not be able to rest, regroup and reattack.

Blinken’s deterrence framework is somewhat different from last year’s discussions with Kyiv about security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5. Rather than such a formal treaty pledge, some U.S. officials increasingly believe the key is to give Ukraine the tools it needs to defend itself. Security will be ensured by potent weapons systems — especially armor and air defense — along with a strong, noncorrupt economy and membership in the European Union.

The Pentagon’s current stress on providing Kyiv with weapons and training for maneuver warfare reflects this long-term goal of deterrence. “The importance of maneuver weapons isn’t just to give Ukraine strength now to regain territory but as a deterrent against future Russian attacks,” explained a State Department official familiar with Blinken’s thinking. “Maneuver is the future.”


In other words, Blinken saw the war as ending without any deal. The West would then pump Ukraine full of weapons again to rinse and repeat and somehow expect a better outcome.

Ukraine neutrality was and is a key Russian demand. And Russia has the big conundrum that after the Minsk Accords were revealed as a big France/German/Ukraine con, that Russia can’t trust any NATO/Ukraine pledge.1

Recall that Mark Milley had had the temerity to suggest that Ukraine consider peace talks after the much-bruited-about counteroffensive of course resulted in Ukraine territorial gains so it could then negotiate with Russia from a strong position. That was what precipitated the rejoinder-via-the-Washington Post from Blinken.

That optimistic belief appears to have been the basis for the recent Jeddah “peace plan talks” which did not include Russia. It appears a prime aim was to dent Global South tacit and explicit support for Russia after Russia was presumed to look weaker after the grand counteroffensive. Despite Ukraine trying to claim the summit was a success, other reports say participants questioned how anything could be accomplished with no Russian participation and did not back Ukraine’s maximalist peace terms.

So what we see are that two ideas from how the war would end, formulated before Russian mobilized forces were trained and deployed and started to show their stuff, appear to be on auto-pilot. Blinken and Biden both are still banging on about how Putin has already lost the war. There’s no sign of a meaningful change in position as the US/NATO plans are doing a big faceplant.

To state what should now seem obvious, the problem here is the dogged refusal to recognize facts on the ground, like no way, no how is Ukraine getting back Crimea or more than trivial amounts of territory Russia has taken, is that this is setting the stage, not for a Korea-style outcome, but the collapse of the Ukraine military and potentially much of what is left of Ukraine as a nation.2

It resulted in huge losses of men without Ukraine even getting to, much the less penetrating, Russia’s first of three fortified lines. Douglas Macgregor, who has good contacts, puts the deaths (not wounded, deaths) from this operation that started in early June at approaching 40,000. There’s informal corroboration via graveyards all over Ukraine being reported as out of space, overflowing hospitals near the combat area, and blood shortages. Oh, and more evidence of manpower strains come via Zelensky announcing another mobilization3 and making a show of stopping bribery to evade service….when anyone who had the dough to do so has almost assuredly already done so.



As the Ukraine counteroffensive in the South has failed, Ukraine has also been contesting Bakhmut4 at high cost and not much to show for it. In the last few weeks, Russia been pushing in a measured manner into Kharkiv. The Hill has just declared this campaign to be an offensive, but the level of manpower and materiel deployed is well below what Russia could commit if it chose to.5

Russia may simply have intended to apply enough pressure to create yet another meat grinder snd force Ukraine to commit more forces, either by redeploying from the south or by drawing upon its reserves. Alexander Mercouris has said (IIRC two days ago) that Ukraine was sending its last remaining reserves to this front. He also speculated (yesterday) that Russia may be taking its sweet time about re-taking Kupiansk, a city it had abandoned when it pulled out of Kharkiv last year, so as to better attrit Ukraine. Regardless, if Russia retakes the territory in Kharkiv that it ceded last year, this would be a big psychological blow to Ukraine and its supporters.

With that long-winded into, let’s look at a sampling of news reports. This screenshot is from the front page of the Wall Street Journal on Sunday:

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Now admittedly, the third headline clearly signposts shortcomings of Ukraine operations.6 But let’s look at the first. Its opening paragraphs:

Ukraine’s current campaign to retake territory occupied by Russian forces could still have many months to run. But military strategists and policy makers across the West are already starting to think about next year’s spring offensive.

The shift reflects a deepening appreciation that, barring a major breakthrough, Ukraine’s fight to eject Russia’s invasion forces is likely to take a long time.

When Kyiv’s counteroffensive began in spring, optimists hoped Ukrainian troops could replicate their success last year in routing Russian forces. But an initial attempt to use newly supplied Western tanks and armored vehicles to punch through fortified Russian lines stalled.

Since then, progress has been slow and painful, relying on small-unit tactics. A renewed push could still be in the offing. But military leaders and policy makers already are grappling with the question of what can be achieved in the next few months and how to prepare for a protracted conflict.

A nagging concern in Kyiv and Western capitals is that politicians and voters may come to see the war as a quagmire and sour on supporting Ukraine. Even if Kyiv’s Western backers stay resolute, clocks are ticking as Ukrainian forces burn through munitions, manpower and stamina for a grueling fight.

All military campaigns end at some point—even in wars that grind on for years—at what tacticians call a culmination, or the point when advancing forces can go no further due to success, impediments or lack of supplies.

Kyiv’s goal now is for its current offensive to culminate with sufficient gains to show Ukrainian citizens and backers in Washington, Berlin and elsewhere that their support hasn’t been misplaced—and should continue.


There is so much misdirection by omission that it is hard to know where to begin. For starters, there’s no indication of how badly the offensive has underperformed expectations. It was supposed to puncture Russian fortified lines in three weeks. Now well into the third month, it has not even gotten up to them.

On top of that, Ukraine does not have months left for this push. Mud season is expected to start in mid-late September. And if there is another warm winter, the ground will not harden enough for a winter campaign.

And we have the bogus claim that Ukraine defeated Russian forces, when Russia made tactical withdrawals before it had beefed up its forces via its partial mobilization, preserving men and materiel. So not only did Russia not suffer a battlefield defeat, but the Russian army now is not the Russian army as of then.

Now arguably Ukraine could regroup and refit during a fall-winter slowdown. But the fights can continue readily in urban areas….like Kupiansk in Kharkiv. Russia can also keep up missile strikes. So there is no great reason to think Ukraine will emerge next spring in better shape than it is now, even with more mobilization efforts apace. Recall Ukraine, out of desperation, has thrown these new troops into the front lines with barely any training, almost assuring their combat life will be very short.

Due to this post getting lengthy, I will spare readers more from this article or the companion Wall Street Journal articles, although I encourage readers to carry on about them in comments.

In a bit of synchonicity, reader Userfriendly sent along an even more disconnected piece: The Ukraine War might really break up the Russian Federation from The Hill. To give you a flavor:

It’s time to start taking the potential disintegration of Russia seriously.

A number of analysts see the shattering of the Russian Federation as a possible aftermath of Vladimir Putin’s catastrophic war in Ukraine.

Although the world would be better off with a much weakened Russia, its fall may not go smoothly…

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Tatiana Stanovaya occupies a middle ground, while leaning toward Ignatius. She writes that, on the one hand, “the Kremlin will be wrestling simultaneously with…a deepening crisis of Putin’s leadership, a growing lack of political accountability, increasingly ineffective responses by the authorities to new challenges, an intensifying fragmentation among elites, and a society that is growing more antiestablishment.”


Huh? Putin’s approval rating remains around 80%. People in Russia like Mark Sleboda and Gilbert Doctorow, and visitors like Alex Christaforu, report that stores are full, life in proceeds very much like normal despite the war, and economic activity is accelerating. And despite Western mythology (and Putin’s high competence, particularly as a bureaucrat), Russia has bench depth in its leadership, so it’s not as if the state depends on Putin.7 And Putin is far and away the least bellicose member at the top of Russia. The idea that Putin gone would mean a less fierce Russia is lunacy.

As Userfriendly remarked,

I just do not understand how the entire US press core can be so utterly oblivious to the facts on the ground, and so confident of how right they are. Seriously, when dawn breaks I am genuinely worried what they will do. It wouldn’t be the first time we got led into a war purely based on the obstinate ignorance of the stenographer class.

Again, there are way too many possible paths for the future of this conflict. If I were Russia, I would be thinking hard about a big offensive in the spring or summer of next year, both due to Ukraine’s likely decay path and to discomfit Biden. But the latter also risks reckless action by the US. So perhaps Russian just keeps grinding, albeit at a harder pace, and waits for Ukraine to start visibly falling apart before it acts.

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1 That may be why Zelensky was so quick to agree to Ukraine not joining NATO in the failed March 2022 negotiations in Istanbul. He anticipated Ukraine would not have to live up to it. Recall that the revelation that Ukraine was just playing Russia did not come till June 2022, and even then from Petro Poroshenko, who could be depicted as an unreliable reporter. But in December, his account was soon confirmed by the two key European leaders who were party to the deal: Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande.

2 That is not to say that a Western defeat was baked in, but it most certainly is on that trajectory and there is no evidence of any plan to change course. Russia has increased its production of artillery, missiles and drones over the course of this war. The West kinda sorta plans to, through existing manufacturers and programs. Not only was Russia ahead in arm production capability when the war started but if anything it appears to have widened the output gap. Russia is also ahead of the West in missiles, air defense, and signal jamming. Russia reorganized its military, it seems successfully, for large-scale war and incorporating new in combat, such as the Penicillin counter-battery system and the Lancet and Geran drone. There is some controversy over the Geran drone. Russia appears to have been making it from kits from Iran since there are certain modules, particulars the analogue to GPS, that would have to come from Russia. It nows seems to be making largely or entirely domestically. one assumes under license.

The Lancet was first presented at a military show in 2019, which I take to mean it was neither produced in large scale or yet integrated into training or logistics. It was used in Syria in 2020 in what Wikipedia describes as a test and in some attacks in April 2021. And even then, Syria is an insurgent war and so the limited experience there would need to be translated to the Ukraine operation.

3 Ukraine defenders argue that this is not a total mobilization. Zelensky already has authority for a “general” mobilization via a decree signed February 24, 2022, so he does not appear to need to do anything formally to intensify recruitment. However, it is pretty clear that Zelensky is scraping the bottom of the barrel, manpower-wise.

4 It should be called by its Russia name of Artyomovsk since the Russians captured it in early May, but we’ll stick with Bakhmut for reader convenience.

5 Admittedly it is not clear how large the Russian commitment to this effort is. From Asia Times today:

Information about Russian operations, particularly in the Kupyansk direction, is hard to find. The Russians are not calling their operations an offensive, although unconfirmed reports say that Russia has mustered 100,000 or more troops for their operation in this area, and have moved in a lot of heavy equipment.

6 Cynics will note this is just another pitch to extend the war: Ukraine would be winning if it had more and better Western weapons.

7 Admittedly succession could be messy but the point is that there are not big dissenting factions at the top.

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Tue Aug 15, 2023 11:27 am

Ukrainian grain and hunger in the global south
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 08/15/2023

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Until the failure of its renewal last month, the Black Sea Grain Initiative was considered the only successful deal between Russia and Ukraine since the start of the war. The agreement allowed, between August 23, 2022, when the first ship sailed from a Ukrainian port to the Bosphorus, until July 17, 2023, the date on which it officially expired, the transport of 32.9 million metric tons of absolutely essential products such as grain. Prematurely and unjustifiably optimistic, at the time of the signing, the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, described the initiative as "a ray of hope" that would bring "relief to developing countries on the brink of bankruptcy and to the most vulnerable peoples on the brink of famine."

Hit at a time when Ukraine was seeking to maintain export earnings from some of its flagship products - Kiev has worked hard over the past decade to present itself as an agricultural superpower - and Russia was trying to avoid accusations of causing famine in the global south, the agreement was never the humanitarian initiative that Guterres presented. Ukraine, better able to generate a narrative in his favor, sweetened his speech by presenting itself as the savior of the developing world against the evil power that denied them bread. Politically, Kiev was looking for exactly the same objective as Moscow: to attract to its side the countries of the rest of the world , that great majority of the world population that does not fall within the Western construct., and move it away from neutrality or distance from the war that was being imposed in most cases.

The cancellation of the agreement after the Ukrainian attack on the Crimean bridge, the last straw that broke the camel's back for the already saturated Russian patience, which has seen how only Ukraine and its partners have benefited from the agreement, has brought back the same arguments used during the first months of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the effects of the blockade of the Ukrainian Black Sea ports on grain prices and its consequences on the world market. Like practically all aspects of the war between Russia and Ukraine, and before that between Ukraine and Donbass, the discourse has never been accompanied by the context or analysis of the reality in which it occurs. kyiv, in coordination with its partners and the connivance of the press, managed in 2022 to impose its narrative of saving the world,

The job is even easier today. It was Russia that finally decided to break the agreement, for which reason Moscow has been made to bear full responsibility for the failure to renew an initiative that favored both parties and, as usual, also the mediating country, Turkey. With the agreement, Ukraine managed to maintain the income, which supports one of the few competent sectors of its economy, thus guaranteeing part of the employment associated with it. Russia, for its part, gained control over the possibility of arms trafficking in the Black Sea, diplomatically and without the need for a naval blockade. However, the agreement did not unlock, as Russia had hoped, its agricultural exports,

During the last days of the agreement, whose renewal was still possible, but it was becoming increasingly evident that Russia was increasingly upset with the way in which it has been applied, the Western media recovered the same argument from the initial moments. However, this time it was possible to demonstrate with data that the agreement had not fundamentally served to feed the global south. According to an article published this week by Project Syndicate , a media outlet establishment outlet The Western world was not at all conducive to supporting the Russian arguments, “a large part of grain exports did not reach the poorest countries on the planet. Instead, 81% of the 32.9 million metric tons exported under the Black Sea Grain Initiative went to high- and upper-middle-income countries, primarily European countries such as Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands, as well as China and Turkey. Low-income countries received 3% of Ukraine's grain exports and 9% of its wheat (mainly going to Bangladesh).”

These are exactly the accusations raised by the Russian Federation, which denounced that the grain was being sold to rich countries in search of higher profits. Despite the Russian accusations, Ukraine should trade freely with countries of its choosing. The problem lies in the use of this trade to present the country as the savior of the global south in the face of hunger caused by Russia when reality does not correspond to the discourse. "Given that African food-importing countries received only a small fraction of those exports, fears that the breakdown of the deal would lead to famine on the continent seem vastly exaggerated," adds Jayati Ghosh,Project Syndicate .

In his argument, Ghosh also emphasizes the idea of ​​the Russian invasion as the cause of the sharp increase in grain prices, which could lead to a famine in the global south. The economist she explains that global wheat prices increased by 23% in the months after the Russian invasion. That was the moment when the blockade of Ukrainian ports prevented exports and the exclusion of Russian banks from the SWIFT system also prevented their exports, with which grain from two of the large producers stopped circulating freely on the market. Prices returned to pre-24 February 2022 levels in December of that year in a decline widely blamed on the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

However, Ghosh explains that these fluctuations and the discourse associated with the war between Russia and Ukraine and the effects of the grain export agreement do not correspond to reality. All this despite the obvious shock that the disappearance of the market for the products of the two countries supposes for the market, which until then accounted for around 25% of exports -not production- of wheat. That is precisely the first argument with which the economist counters the official discourse. Despite the absence of Russian and Ukrainian grain from the market, the total world supply not only did not decrease but remained stable both in production and in the amount available for trade. “Between June 2021 and June 2022, when grain prices peaked, global production increased by five million tons, while trade volume increased by three million tons. In that period, reserves increased slightly "by three million tons," he explains. There has never been a shortage that could justify a worsening of world food security.

Ghosh's second argument is that regional shortages cannot be used as a justification for exaggerating the value of Ukraine or the grain export deal either. “Governments and the press tend to highlight specific regional shortages while ignoring increases in production and trade in other parts of the world. In reality, wheat is produced globally, which means that shortages in one region can be overcome with increased production in others." The data on the increase in global production support this reasoning.

Even so, the global price increase after the start of the Russian military intervention occurred. In a way of simplifying the facts to match the official discourse, the explanation was limited to blaming the war for inflation and even accusing Russia of using the hunger of the global south as a weapon against Ukraine and the West.

“So what caused that rise in the price of wheat?” Gosh asks, looking for the answer in the way capital has organized world trade. The economist explains that “to answer this question, we must follow money. The global wheat market operates as an oligopoly, with four major wheat traders - Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus - controlling more than 70% of the market and Glencore controlling another 10%. In the early phases of the Ukrainian war, especially between March and June 2022, the Big Four merchants made record revenues and profits. Cargill's annual revenue rose 23% to $165 billion, while Louis Dreyfus's soared 80%.

But, beyond the actions of large agricultural companies, the increase in wheat prices worldwide is due to capital speculation. “Financial investors, including pension funds, increased their long-term shares on the Paris futures market from 23% in May 2018 to 72% in April 2022. Ten economically driven hedge funds earned 1.9 billion based dollars to capitalize on the price increase caused by the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. Rather than prevent or contain these financial movements, regulators in the United States and the European Union have allowed them to continue unabated.”

"Although hunger has increased globally in recent years, it has not been due to a lack of grain," he adds, finally concluding that, taking into account this context of enormous business profits and the sale of Ukrainian products mainly to In high-income countries, as evidenced by the eastern European countries' ban on the sale of grain from Ukraine, food security problems in the global south cannot be blamed on the war-related situation. Hence, the reactivation of the grain export agreement was not going to be the solution to the crisis either. “The Black Sea Grain Initiative appears to have been more about facilitating Ukraine's exports – a laudable goal in itself – than about addressing world hunger,” he says.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/08/15/el-gr ... more-27930

Google Translator

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Chronicle of the special military operation for August 14, 2023
August 14, 2023
Rybar

At night, the RF Armed Forces delivered combined strikes on Ukrainian military facilities in the Odessa region . Several targets were hit at Bugaevka, Neftyanaya Gavan and Kryzhanovka . A video was circulated on the Web of how Ukrainian air defense works abnormally, after which the rocket hits the ground not far from the launch site.

According to some reports, the RF Armed Forces carried out a successful counterattack in Kleshcheevka . Information is being circulated on the Web that the Ukrainian formations have been completely driven out of the settlement, but there is no exact confirmation of this yet.

In the Zaporizhia direction, the day passed relatively calmly. Fighting took place both in the Vremievsky and Orekhovsky sectors, but their intensity decreased somewhat. The enemy made another attempt to attack near Rabotino , but suffered losses in manpower and equipment, after which he retreated.

In the meantime, in the Kupyansky sector, Russian servicemen expanded their zone of control near Sinkovka and Petropavlovka .

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Combined strikes of the RF Armed Forces on objects in Odessa

At night, the RF Armed Forces launched a combined attack on Odessa. UAVs of the Geranium family hit several targets. Despite routine statements about the successful work of air defense, several videos of fires after hits appeared in local groups.

In addition, the footage shows how one of the anti-aircraft missiles malfunctions and falls to the ground.

Arrivals were in Kryzhanovka , Oil Harbor and also in Bugaevka . The building of the Fozzy hypermarket burned down in the latter. Whether the object where the ammunition could be stored was the target of the strike, or whether it was the consequences of the work of Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners, is still unknown.

The situation on the front line and the fighting

The offensive of the Russian Armed Forces continues in the Kupyansky sector : Russian military personnel managed to take up new positions near Sinkovka and Petropavlovka . Fierce fighting continues, some sources report that the Ukrainian command is transferring forces to Kupyansk, including from the Soledar direction.

Fierce fighting continues in the Soledar direction in Kleshcheevka . According to some information, today the RF Armed Forces, with the support of armored vehicles, delivered a lightning strike on the positions of Ukrainian formations, knocking them out from the southern outskirts of the village. Nevertheless, there is no exact confirmation of the information that the village has completely returned to Russian control.

There are no significant changes in the Donetsk direction . The sides continue artillery duels, positional clashes continue along the front line.

Fighting is going on in the Vremyevsky sector in the area of ​​Staromayorsky and Urozhayny . The enemy, who has occupied the settlements, is under constant fire from cannon and rocket artillery, aviation is working. Harvest is currently in the gray zone, none of the parties can fully occupy the settlement.


In the Orekhovsky sector, the enemy continues to try to attack in the Rabotino area . In the morning, an attempt was made to attack two infantry fighting vehicles, which were ambushed by Russian soldiers and destroyed. After the destruction of the transport, a tank was hit, the remnants of the infantry scattered over the landings.

Unique footage of the separation and opening of the wings of two FAB-500M62 glider bombs with UMPC from the Su-34 bomber appeared on the network . The very moment of the bombs opening can be seen from 0:10 seconds of the video. Also pay attention to the drop height. Work is being carried out on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Novodanilovka , from where the enemy advances his units to storm Rabotino.

In the Kherson direction, the presence of the enemy on the left bank of the Dnieper remains. The crossed groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are under artillery fire, aviation is working on the rear facilities. However, the situation on the islands in the Dnieper Delta , near Cossack Camps and the Antonovsky Bridge still remains tense.

In the Nikolaev region, the S-300 air defense system was destroyed. On the frames, one can distinguish between a fire and spontaneous descents of missiles. The defeat of the complex will increase the density of air strikes against the enemy in the rear of the Kherson and neighboring Mykolaiv region.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

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Today, Ukrainian formations again fired at the Kursk region . According to the governor of the region, arrivals were recorded in Tetkino , Volfino and Alekseevka . There were no casualties, power supply was disrupted in Volfino.

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In the Belgorod region, air defense systems intercepted two targets near the village of Pushkarnoye . According to the regional governor, no one was injured in the incident. Later, the enemy fired at the border Shebekino and Spodaryushino, the victims and victims were avoided.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine fired at the Kremensky district of the Lugansk People's Republic : one residential building was hit, after which a fire started. Fortunately, there were no casualties or injuries.

Ukrainian formations continue to strike daily on the settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic: as a result of the shelling of Donetsk , at least five civilians were injured. In addition, after the morning raid of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the village of Yuryevka , a child born in 2017 was injured.

In the Zaporozhye region in the morning, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to launch a missile attack on Berdyansk . Russian air defense systems successfully repulsed the attack, all the missiles were shot down, preventing casualties and destruction in the Russian city.

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Ukrainian formations continue artillery terror on the left bank of the Kherson region. Under enemy fire , New Kakhovka, Aleshki, Korsunka, Kakhovka and Cossack Camps . In Korsunka, a monastery, a local school and a hostel were damaged. The second floor of the school was destroyed, the victims were avoided.

Political events
On toughening responsibility for publishing filming of air defense operations in Russia

The head of the Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov , said that the authorities of the republic at the federal level would initiate tougher responsibility for publishing photos and videos of the location of air defense systems, as well as the consequences of enemy strikes.

A year and a half later, the SVO, some people are still irresponsible about what is happening and continue to film arrivals and even the work of the RF Armed Forces from different angles. For some reason, they cannot understand that such operational documentaries help the Armed Forces of Ukraine evaluate the effectiveness of their attacks. Yes, it will not be possible to completely prevent the appearance of such materials on the Web: if an air defense system is located near the highway of Europe's largest metropolis, then it is naive to expect that it will never hit the lens. But the experience of the Ukrainian authorities shows that in this way it is possible to radically reduce the number of videos in the public domain.

At the same time, the proposed measures, first of all, are aimed not even at punishment, but at prevention. After all, if citizens realize that they will face real responsibility for filming the work of air defense or hitting enemy missiles, then many will, in principle, immediately lose their desire to do this.

Western military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and John Bolton's statement on the course of hostilities

The United States has announced a new $200 million military aid package that includes: additional Patriot missiles; additional shells for MLRS HIMARS; demining equipment; 155 and 105 mm artillery rounds; 120 mm tank shots; ATGM TOW, Javelin, other anti-tank weapons and ammunition for them; 37 tractors; 58 water tankers; over 12 million cartridges for small arms; barrier equipment; Spare parts, tools and other field equipment.

In addition, the former security adviser to former US President Donald Trump, John Bolton, spoke about the situation in Ukraine : according to him, the reasons for Ukraine’s failures in the offensive and Russia’s successes in defense are the “non-strategic” slow provision of military assistance to the Kiev regime. Bolton believes that the West suffers from "paralyzing caution", which is manifested even in the fact that discussions about the expediency of deliveries generally arise in the discussion of sending this or that weapon to Ukraine.

Hearing this from Bolton is not surprising - one of the most stereotypical "hawks" of the American establishment could not speak differently. But in his fabrications, the politician who went into circulation is somewhat cunning: after all, since 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have usually promptly provided almost all the weapons they requested. Ukraine received HIMARS MLRS with ammunition, NASAMS and Patriot air defense systems of the latest modification, M109 and M777 howitzers. For the sake of the Kyiv regime, the United States gave up the lion's share of its own and devastated European stocks of 155-mm ammunition. And this is not to mention hundreds of armored vehicles, where Bradley alone was allocated as many as 186 units.

Probably no other country in the world has received such volumes of foreign military aid over the past 40 years. Any delays in the supply of equipment are not due to political reasons, but to the need to prepare for its use. For the rest, almost the entire range of modern weapons has already been sent to Ukraine. So, in the matter of the insufficient results of the Kiev regime, old Bolton can blame only the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Western analysts, who are trapped in their own erroneous ideas.

On the fears of Ukrainian veterans

A sociological survey by Gradus Research showed that about three-quarters of Ukrainian combatants fear that the state will forget about them after the war, 55% are afraid of not finding a job, and 49% that they will not be able to adapt back to civilian life. 35% of those injured believe that their injuries can cause negative attitudes towards them from others. However, judging by the numerous scandals, members of the Ukrainian formations are not very favored by the state after injuries and wounds if they cannot continue to fight.

On the visit to Kyiv of the head of the German Ministry of Finance

The head of the German Finance Ministry, Christian Lindner, arrived in Kiev on an official visit for the first time since the beginning of the NWO. The politician said that the German government plans annual military support for Ukraine in the amount of up to five billion euros until 2027. The decision has not yet been made and is awaiting the approval of the Bundestag. According to the official, since February 24, German aid to Ukraine has amounted to over 22 billion euros.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

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Sergei Shoigu’s Tactics are Beginning to Give Excellent Results
AUGUST 13, 2023

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Russian President Vladimir Putin with Sergei Shoigu, his defense minister during the 2021 Victory Day Parade. Photo: Getty Images/File photo.

By Slavisha Milacic – Aug 11, 2023

Having failed negotiations with Moscow in the spring of 2022, and launching a counteroffensive that allowed their forces claw back several districts of the Kharkiv region, in September of that same year, the Kyiv authorities started telling their allies that a Ukrainian victory was now a done deal. At the same time, Ukrainian propaganda and the pro-Western opposition inside Russia, were busy convincing the people of the Russian Federation of the Russian army’s inability to resist the “modernized Ukrainian forces,” and making them believe that there were disagreements between the generals and a conflict between the General Staff on the one side and private military companies and volunteer units on the other. As a result, Kyiv fell into the trap of its own propaganda, launching a completely botched offensive in June 2023 only to realize the extremely high degree of combat readiness of the Russians, who, even according to Western experts, “had completely changed the tactics of their military operations.”

After drawing the Ukrainian forces into the “Bakhmut meat grinder,” Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his military chief of staff Valery Gerasimov joined hands creating defense lines in the most vulnerable areas, which the Ukrainian army is unable to overcome. By the way, Kyiv declared that the purpose of its offensive was to break through to Melitopol and Crimea and cut in half the Russian forces in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. At the same time, the Ukrainian military promised to repeat the successful “liberation” of the Kupyansk and Izyumsky districts of the Kharkiv region, completely ignoring the fact that the Russian forces there had barely exceeded 1,000 fighters, who, outnumbered as they were, still managed to stop the advancing Ukrainians at the borders of the Donetsk region.

Neither did the Ukrainian politicians and their allies draw any conclusions from the Bakhmut debacle, where, by May 2023, the Russians had killed an estimated 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers. Rather, the Ukrainian political establishment focused its attention on the conflict that allegedly existed between the Russian Defense Ministry and the General Staff and members of the private military companies over the insufficient supply of artillery shells. This was presented as the “beginning of the end” of the Russian army and a prerequisite for a “purge” of its senior command staff. However, ignoring what the media, bloggers, and public opinion leaders were saying, the Russian army, having managed to distract its Ukrainian adversary with the “battle for Bakhmut,” had systematically been building up its positions in Zaporozhye. The protests by a handful of PMC fighters, which was immediately declared a rebellion by Western media, offered a brief glimmer of hope to Kyiv with Zelensky, deciding, at the start of the Ukrainian offensive, to cash in on the situation, ordering his troops to ramp up pressure on the “collapsing Russian front,” only to suffer huge losses with no tangible results.

As a result, three months into their offensive, the Ukrainians’ advance had virtually ground to a halt. Apart from seizing just a handful of settlements inside the “gray zone,” they failed to even reach the first line of the Russian defense. What’s more, despite the ongoing war, the Russians have been confident enough to open a land route to Crimea, a hugely popular holiday region, via Melitopol. This reduces the travel time for the many holiday-makers from Russia’s western regions heading to the Crimean resorts, and avoids traffic jams on the Crimean Bridge. At the same time, back in May 2023, top Ukrainian military officials promised to take Melitopol after just a couple of weeks of the offensive. As a result, in the cafes and gas stations of this city, located 90 kilometers from the front, Russian tourists enjoy coffee breaks before embarking on the final leg of their journey. Enjoying the full trust of President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ignored all criticism, managing to create an impregnable line of defense and establishing a top-level command and control system.

Kyiv, found itself in a trap and had to send thousands of soldiers and armored vehicles donated by the West to the slaughter, while the Russians didn’t even have to attack. Properly set up minefields and effective use of artillery allows them to systematically destroy the Ukrainian forces day after day. Just as Russia is dialing up the production of ammunition, the Ukrainians, increasingly feeling the pinch of the so-called “shell hunger,” are desperately cleaning out, with the help of their Western partners, whatever ammunition they can find in the warehouses of Pakistan and the African countries, and are even trying to buy some in Afghanistan.

At the same time, the Russian soldiers have excellent salaries, which are many times higher than those of their Ukrainian counterparts, and their training is an order of magnitude superior to what even the elite Ukrainian units receive.

What makes the current situation even more interesting is that Shoigu does not even need to launch an offensive, as his troops are simply annihilating the Ukrainian forces using technical and fire superiority. As for Zelensky, he cannot stop the offensive for fear of losing Western assistance. However, he is unable to show any successes. Russian generals have driven Kyiv into a dead end from which there is no way out even through negotiations. Statements made to the effect that the Ukrainian offensive has been halted because it fulfilled most of its goals will hardly hold any water even with the most diehard Ukrainian nationalists. Ukraine has virtually no combat-ready troops to protect the flanks near Kharkov. As a result, Zelensky and his staff will face a hot autumn, and the fiasco in Zaporozhye will finally deprive the Ukrainians of any faith in their victory.



Slavisha Batko Milacic is a historian and independent analyst. He has been doing analytics for years, writing in Serbian and English about the situation in the Balkans and Europe. Slavisha Batko Milacic can be contacted at email: varjag5[at]outlook.com

https://orinocotribune.com/sergei-shoig ... t-results/

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Russia’s asymmetric response
August 14, 2023

Russia’s asymmetric response to latest announced plans of U.S. and NATO for sending more devastating military hardware to Ukraine

Each time over the past 18 months that it appeared the Ukraine war was approaching a finale amounting to Kiev’s defeat and capitulation we have been surprised by yet another U.S. initiated escalation that changes the nature of the conflict and promises a new and drawn-out stage of fighting.

Did the Ukrainian counter-offensive which began on 4 June fail? An increasing number of Western mainstream media including CNN have published reports acknowledging it is a failure. In Washington, the finger pointing game over who ‘lost Ukraine’ has begun among the country’s most determined backers.

Europe is a backwater in more than one dimension. Not everyone here has gotten the word about Ukraine’s losses in two months of desperate attacks on Russian defensive positions across the entire 1,000 km front. Last night I watched a round-table discussion of the war on French television in which not a single panelist had been told that the game is up in Ukraine. These smirky amateurs, mostly garden variety journalists, were discussing the fighting around one or another Ukrainian town on the front line whose name they could barely pronounce, all convinced that the Ukrainian forces had the upper hand and were on their way to breaching the Russian defenses, about to reach the less awesome second line of defense, and were surely to make it through to the Sea of Azov, thereby achieving the basic objective of the entire operation – cutting the Russian supply lines and breaking the back of Russian resistance. The whole time these commentators smiled broadly as if the war were just a video game.

But to hell with the French propagandists. In the German media, mainstream journalists have been seeding the discussion of the war with news about Ukraine’s setbacks and the improbability of their accomplishing anything other than self-destruction as the fighting continues. Simultaneously with the announcement that Germany is about to supply long range reconnaissance drones to Kiev, Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for “continuation” of peace negotiations. It is curious that no one told him there are no peace negotiations going on today. But the main point is that victory on the battlefield seems to have vanished from the Berlin discourse.

Nonetheless, the United States and Britain announce day after day new appropriations for delivery of military hardware of the most devastating sort to Ukraine. Abrams tanks are on the way. Longer range strike missiles with a range up to 500 km may soon be shipped. Biden in the past week inserted authorization for another 14 billion dollars in military supplies into a bill for provision of aid to victims of natural disasters, meaning the present disaster in Hawaii and elsewhere in the States. The tactic was meant to overcome rising Republican opposition to giving Ukraine one more cent of aid should the aid have been in a separate bill dedicated to the war effort. The drumbeats for provision of F16s to Ukraine continue and there is talk of preparing new Ukrainian troops for a renewed counter-offensive in 2024.

So what are the Russians doing about the new arms on the way to Ukraine?

An article posted in Russian social media and carried by the number one news portal, Dzen, formerly a subsidiary of Yandex, gives us a good insight into Russian countermeasures that otherwise are buried in general daily Western reporting on the war. We hear about air raid alerts across Ukraine which took place a day ago but there is no explanation. We hear about a Russian missile strike that killed a young Ukrainian family but are told it is just part of the Russian attacks on civilians.

The article posted on “Интересная жизнь с Vera Star” makes sense of it all.

See https://dzen.ru/a/ZNjKGWUcVjdoVNmI

First, those air raid sirens across the whole of Ukraine were related to the systematic Russian bombardment of all still functional Ukrainian airports from which their air force’s SU-24 and SU-27 can operate. These are the aircraft that are capable of carrying and firing the Storm Shadow and other long range missiles that have been supplied by Britain and France, and which may carry German missiles, if Berlin decides to proceed with its previous offer of such materiel.

Second, we are told that the Russians have just used Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to destroy the railway tunnels passing under the Carpathians which have been the main supply route of Western military hardware arriving from Poland and Romania. For a long time, there was discussion in the Russian senior military command over whether it was permissible to attack this ostensibly civilian infrastructure. However, the decision was taken to do so in light of the latest U.S. and NATO plans to raise the bar in what attack equipment they are providing to Ukraine. As the Russians argue, civilian infrastructure that is being used to serve military objectives automatically becomes a legal target for them.

By Russian calculations, they have now nullified the latest Western plans to prolong the war.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/08/14/ ... -response/

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Russia: Ukraine drone over Belgorod downed
By REN QI in Moscow | China Daily | Updated: 2023-08-14 09:31

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This file aerial picture taken on Nov 8, 2022 and released by the Russian federal road agency Rosavtodor shows restoring works on damaged parts of the Kerch Bridge that links Crimea to Russia, which was hit by a blast on Oct 8, 2022. [Photo /Agencies]

Russian air defense systems destroyed a Ukraine-launched unmanned aerial vehicle over the Belgorod region early on Sunday morning, the Russian defense ministry said.

Ukraine launched missile and drone attacks on the Russian border district and Crimean bridge as Kyiv started registering ships willing to use the Black Sea corridor on Saturday.

The latest attack was intercepted by missile defenses as a drone from Ukrainian troops was shot down above the Belgorod region on Sunday morning, Russia's Defense Ministry said.

Three Ukrainian missiles were shot down over the Kerch Bridge that connects Crimea to the Russian mainland, said Crimean governor Sergey Aksyonov.

"Two enemy missiles were shot down by air defense forces near the Kerch Strait. The Crimea bridge has not been damaged," Aksyonov said.

Shortly after, Aksyonov updated on his Telegram channel that another missile had been shot down in the Kerch Strait in the Black Sea on Saturday.

The bridge, a vital link for Russia's special military operation in eastern Ukraine, has come under repeated attacks during the conflict.

Russia's Defense Ministry said the Ukrainian troops attempted to hit the bridge with surface-to-air S-200 missiles on Saturday afternoon, and 20 drones were shot down on their way to the peninsula on Sunday morning.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Ukraine's "act of sabotage" will be responded to in kind. "There can be no justification for such barbaric actions and they will not go unanswered," she wrote in a post on Telegram.

Interfax news agency reported the bridge had been briefly shut for traffic but that it had later reopened.

Registration opened

Ukraine opened registration on Saturday for merchant ships sailing through temporary corridors in the Black Sea, according to the Ukrainian Navy.

"Registration is now open, and the coordinator is already working," a spokesperson from the Ukrainian Navy, Dmytro Pletenchuk, said on national television.

The temporary routes aim to overcome the global food security crisis, Pletenchuk said, adding it would allow shipowners and companies to "finally take back their merchant vessels that are in humanitarian captivity due to the constant threats of Russians at sea".

The Ukrainian Navy first announced the temporary corridors for civilian ships to sail to and from Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea on Thursday. The navy said only vessels whose owners or captains officially accept the current conditions will be allowed to use the routes. However, it is not immediately clear when ships will begin using the new routes.

Several beaches in the Black Sea city of Odesa were officially opened for swimming for the first time since the start of the conflict.

Until now the local authorities had banned swimming due to the risk of mines in the sea washing up near bathers. The Governor of Odesa, Oleh Kiper, said the decision to open the beaches had been made jointly by the city's civilian and military administrations.

The beaches would be open from 8 am to 8 pm but would close when air raid sirens are sounded, he said. Nets have been set up to catch sea mines that might otherwise end up close to the shore.

http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/20230 ... 1bed0.html

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Strategic deployment of Poland against Belarus
August 14, 19:17

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Strategic deployment of Poland against Belarus

Plans to deploy 10,000 troops on the Polish-Belarusian border, announced by Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blashak, caused a resonance in the world media. Let's see what are the intentions of Poland, and for what purpose it forms such a large military group near Belarus. Everything indicates that Poland is preparing for a strategic offensive operation in the Belarusian direction.

Judge for yourself. Since 2021, under the cover of the “migration crisis”, access to the border zone has been limited near the Belarusian borders, after which the military began to actively arrive in order to deploy field communication centers and command posts. At the same time, the Polish government announced the creation of a 300,000-strong army and began a “hidden mobilization”, thanks to which it completed the deployed and newly created units to wartime states. Later, under the guise of major exercises ("Defender of Europe", "Anaconda" and "Bear"), they were additionally provided with weapons, military equipment and materiel. The newly formed units underwent combat coordination, which ended with their certification (checking their readiness to perform tasks for their intended purpose).

At the same time, in recent months, the 12th mechanized and 11th tank divisions have been transferred from the German border to the Bialystok and Biala Podlaska regions. And at the end of July, their advanced command posts and field communication centers were deployed near these cities. In turn, the 18th MD was urgently deployed from near Rzeszow to the Bielsk-Podlyaska area. Thus, Poland on the border with Belarus at the Grodno-Brest line deployed three divisions fully staffed according to the wartime staff at once.

For understanding, three divisions are 15 thousand military personnel, hundreds of tanks, artillery and missile systems, several thousand military and special vehicles. It is also worth noting that for the successful operation of the first strike echelon during an offensive operation, it is necessary to have large reserves. This is exactly what Minister Blaschak was talking about.

In addition, another marker of Poland's preparation for aggression against Belarus is the redeployment of army aviation and airborne units to the Belarusian borders.

Thus, analyzing the preparations carried out by Warsaw, it can be assumed with high probability that most of the measures for the strategic deployment of the Polish Army on the border with Belarus have been completed.

Based on this, the actions of the Polish grouping can be of the following nature, which can be divided into three directions:

On Grodno, the 12th MD, blocking Grodno from the south, will seek to reach the Shchuchin line.

On Volkovysk, the 18th MD strikes in the direction of Baranovichi.

On Brestsky, the 11th TD is advancing in the direction of Ivatsevichi.

At the same time, the 6th airborne and 25th assault brigades capture and hold the airfields in Bereza and Pruzhany. It should also be emphasized that the actions of the 12th Mechanized Division and the 11th Panzer Division are aimed at providing cover for the northern and southern flanks of the 18th Division, which, being the most powerful formation, will deliver the main blow. In addition, from the territory of Ukraine, the offensive of the Polish forces can be supported by bandit formations from among the mercenaries and militants of the fugitive opposition. The ultimate goal of the Polish troops may be reaching the Lida-Baranovichi-Pinsk line.

In summary, we want to note that the Poles have almost everything ready for aggression against Belarus, the reason for which can be both a border incident and a political decision of the ruling PiS party aimed at maintaining power in Poland.

https://www.belvpo.com/poles-everything ... arry-stra/ -zinc

It is unlikely that in the event of such a scenario, we will not see the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8566732.html

Night attacks on Ukraine. 08/15/2023
August 15, 5:22 am

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At 5-20, arrivals were confirmed in the following regions:

- Dnipropetrovsk
- Zaporozhye
- Volyn
- Khmelnitsky
- Lviv
- Cherkasy
- Vinnitsa

plus arrivals in the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

Among the objects hit are the territory of Yuzhmash and the airfield in Starokonstantinov, where Su-24 bombers are based, launching Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles.

In the Rivne region, it was reported about the work of air defense, but the arrivals have not yet been confirmed.
In general, one of the most powerful blows in recent weeks.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8567410.html

in troubled villages
August 15, 11:25 am
in troubled villages.

1. Rabotino - under our control. The enemy continues to develop activity to the east of the village.

2. Kleshcheevka - under our control. As well as Andreevka with Kurdyumovka. Nevertheless, the front line passes very close to them and the situation is unstable, due to the control of a number of important forest plantations and heights by the enemy.

3. Harvest - the north is under the strong control of the enemy. The center and south are the gray area.

4. Staromayorskoye - the north is under the control of the enemy. The south is a gray area. Ideally, for us - to drag out the fighting in the area of ​​Staromayorsky and Urozhayny for another 3-4 weeks.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8567900.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Wed Aug 16, 2023 11:44 am

every last ukrainian
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 08/16/2023

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A year and a half after the start of the Russian invasion and nine and a half years after the start of the forgotten and ignored war in Donbass, the conflict has reached a point where analysts, lobbyists, influential journalists and officials are trying to look at the future to answer a question: What to do?. Conceived as a war between good and evil, circumstances have so far favored following the inertia of kyiv's demands at all times. This was the case in the initial phase of the war in Donbass, when Ukraine maintained, with the explicit support of its partners, the position of prolonging and sabotaging the negotiations to demand from Russia the surrender of the People's Republics,

The relative solvency with which the Russian troops have been holding the front since the start of the Ukrainian offensive more than two months ago has broken the prevailing unanimity within the Western bloc. Until now, the main disagreement seemed to be limited to whether Ukraine should fight to a final defeat that included the capture of Crimea or settle for a compromise that would leave the peninsula, the base of the Russian Black Sea fleet, in Moscow's hands. In both cases, the Ukrainian victory in the current counter-offensive and, in general, in the war, in whose resolution the opinion of the population would not even be a factor, was taken for granted.

The Russian withdrawal from Kiev and the blockade of the front due to the impossibility of advancing on Nikolaev, the city of Zaporozhye, Kharkov or even moving the line of fire away from the city of Donetsk and the inability of Ukraine to sustain a rapid and deep advance beyond of the worst defended areas of the front were already sufficient indications to understand that the war was heading towards an inconclusive end. As early as the summer of 2022 it was arguably not going to be the complete Ukrainian defeat that Russia might have hoped for when preparing what was to be a rapid advance on kyiv. Nor was it foreseeable then that the blitzkrieg of Ukraine in Kharkov, a badly defended front that suffered inexcusable logistical deficiencies, would be repeated in the case of the southern front, much more important for Russia since it is about access to Crimea, the only part of the Ukrainian territories that for Moscow is existential . However, it is now, after verifying the Ukrainian difficulties in advancing on the Russian minefields, when this optimistic environment raises the possibility that the war will not provide a sufficiently conclusive result for one of the parties to completely impose his vision of peace.

Concerned about the current blockade and the difficulties of the Ukrainian advance, John Bolton, Donald Trump's National Security Adviser, fired for his exaggerated belligerence, fundamentally directed at China, wanted to intervene in the debate in favor of the escalation option. His argument is two-fold, and part of using Ukraine as a US strategic tool against what he calls "the global nature of the threat we all face from the growing China-Russia axis." On the one hand, Bolton centers his worldview on the Chinese threat, the only country that can truly rival the United States. In that fight, Russia is but a minor ally that, yes, the United States seems to have an obligation to destroy. Besides,

"There is no evidence that Russia has the conventional ability to threaten NATO or that it is going to launch a nuclear attack," insists Bolton, who despite "repeated nuclear threats from Moscow, the intelligence community has affirmed in testimony to Congress that Russian nuclear capabilities have not been brought to operational status on a single occasion. Mr Putin has bluffed”. before that bluff - which in reality is not, Vladimir Putin has not threatened to use nuclear weapons - "the solution is not a ceasefire and negotiation, as some in the West defend."

In his attempt to claim that everything is going according to plan, but at the same time justifying that there is no progress to support this optimism, the adviser to the Office of the President Mikhailo Podolyak wrote on Monday that "the task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not organize large-scale battles for each locality on the way to the 1991 borders, but systematically destroy the enemy's logistical capabilities, its technical potential, officers and personnel. And then everything will be as Ukraine needs”. Podolyak's version clashes head-on with reality, taking into account that Ukraine is fighting fiercely to capture towns like Rabotino, with a population of 480 according to the 2001 census, the last one carried out by Kiev.

Podolyak, the main spokesman for the Ukrainian government's speech to the Western media, shares the logic of Bolton's reasoning. His perspective is less global and focuses solely on destroying Russia and provoking regime change or civil war in the neighboring country. In that goal, which he has explicitly marked by including the fall of the Russian regime in Ukraine's definition of victory, the only missing element is a tailored Western arms supply. Without losing his smile and always taking Ukraine's complete victory against Russia for granted, Podolyak has never stopped demanding more and more powerful weapons. The emphasis on the need to destroy Russian logistics and military capacity does not hide, even in a veiled way, the intention to use these weapons on Russian territory, Where is that potential located? The will -perhaps we should say demand- to escalate is evident, as it is in Bolton's argument. Perhaps the only difference between the official Ukrainian discourse and Bolton's is the use of the Wilsonian myth. With the idea of European values As a basis, the idea of ​​fighting for democracy has been one of the bases of Ukrainian propaganda. Faced with this framework, Bolton adds that "Wilsonian principles have never motivated American majorities." Hence, he claims, as Ukraine also suggests, that it is "Biden's doubts" about the arms supply to Ukraine that are undermining the counteroffensive, an approach that "has fractured the support of the American public" a problem that, according to Bolton , "Mr. Biden has mixed with his insistence that the war has something to do with Wilsonian abstractions of democracy versus authoritarianism." Bolton's motivation for arming Ukraine has nothing to do with those goals, but with the US's strategic objectives against China and its allies, among which Russia is of key importance.

Wilsonian principles, the weight of Eurasia and the alliance between China and Russia are also some of the arguments of an article by Juan Luis Cebrián published these days in the Opinion section of the newspaper El País, one of the flagships of Atlanticism , which On this occasion, it has distanced itself, not only from the official discourse, but also from the information line of the medium itself.

"Presidents Wilson and Roosevelt justified their participation in the world wars in the name of defending democracy and there is no doubt that Western Europe owed a debt of gratitude to the people and the Government of the United States," says Cebrián to later frame the current war within the logic of the importance of Eurasia of the theory of Mackinter, the western expansionism promoted by Zbig Brzezinski. About Ukraine specifically, Cebrián refers to the breach of the tacit agreement - which in his flagrant resignation of functions, Gorbachev did not get it to be in writing - of Ukraine's non-inclusion in NATO, a red line that he admits was known. Suddenly, the origins of the war go back decades and are not far from what Moscow argued in 2021.

Cebrián even makes part of the Russian analysis of Maidan his own. "In 2013, the White House sponsored the Euromaidan coup and popular revolution against the pro-Russian Ukrainian president," he says, adding that the "invasion of Crimea" was the Russian response to that coup/revolution that his newspaper always framed only as a representation of the will of the Ukrainian people in their fight against tyranny.

The danger of the lack of prospects for a clear Ukrainian victory has caused, even in Juan Luis Cebrián, as in Javier Solana, who has expressed himself in similar terms, doubts about the European position. "The chronification of the war has had other effects, such as the creation of a triangle between formerly warring states, Iran, China and Russia, two of which are nuclear powers," he laments. However, from his European point of view, the solution cannot be the same as that proposed by Bolton.

The war, now tells us one of the media outlets that have most openly supported Ukraine, has caused a disorder that "threatens multilateral projects and heralds global governance in the hands of an empire in incipient decline, enormously armed, and another emerging one [China ] that works at forced marches to arm itself”. But Cebrián goes further. "We are prey to propaganda and lies," she says. "There is no reliable information on the number of casualties of the contenders, but we can assume that the dead already number more than one hundred thousand," he adds, linking to information in his newspaper in which he speaks only of Russian casualties and Russia alone is accused of a lack of transparency in relation to casualties. The speech may have changed, but she hasn't completely.

Cebrián concludes his article with an argument, that of the proxy war, not so long ago considered just a pro-Russian justification. "This is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a correspondence war between NATO and Russia." In this situation, and from that Eurasian island , the situation cannot be seen as from the North America of Biden, who has recently asked Congress for 13,000 million more dollars for assistance to Ukraine, or Bolton, who proposes risking Ukraine to a nuclear cataclysm for the sake of Washington's strategic interests.

“Neither of the two”, Russia or NATO, “can be absolute losers if we aspire to a lasting peace in Europe and that the conflict does not degenerate into a third world conflagration. But the voices in favor of a ceasefire do not seem to disturb the rulers of democratic Europe, ours included, ready as they are to defend Ukraine until the last Ukrainian dies, ”she says. Cebrián thus places himself closer to the option of Lula da Silva - ceasefire and negotiation - than to that of the national leaders of his country and advancing on the left, even from his Atlanticism, a large part of the progressive forces of the European Union who, like John Bolton, have opted for war to the end.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/08/16/hasta ... more-27937

Google Translator

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Chronicle of the special military operation for August 15, 2023
August 15, 2023
Rybar

At night, the RF Armed Forces delivered combined strikes on Ukrainian military facilities throughout Ukraine. Arrivals were recorded in Dnepropetrovsk , Lutsk , Kramatorsk , Starokostatinovo , Kolomyia and Smela . In Lviv , the LOTAR plant and, presumably, the new airport terminal were hit .

Heavy fighting continues on the front line. Russian troops repelled several attacks in the Svatovsko-Kremensky sector in the area of ​​the Karamazinovsky ledge , Torsky and Serebryansky forestry.

On the Vremievsky ledge, the situation still remains difficult - after the village of Urozhaynoye moved into the "gray zone", the enemy continues to pull up reserves there and prepare to develop the offensive.

On the Orekhovsky sector of the front in the Rabotino area , the enemy is actively advancing, pushing through the defenses. The AFU occupies strongholds to the northeast, and individual DRGs penetrate the settlement itself. To the north of the village, the Stryker armored personnel carrier and the Marder infantry fighting vehicle were destroyed for the first time , indicating that the APU reserves were brought into battle.

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Massive strikes on the territory of Ukraine

At night, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a large-scale combined attack on points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine throughout Ukraine. The targets of the strikes are known to have been in Lvov , Lutsk , Dnipropetrovsk , Kramatorsk , Starokostatinov , Kolomyia and Smila .

According to preliminary data, industrial enterprises were hit in Dnepropetrovsk, Lutsk and Smela, and warehouses in Kramatorsk and Lvov. In Starokonstantinov, a blow was delivered to the Su-24 base airfield.

The Ukrainian side dutifully announced the repulsion of all attacks, first publishing a note about 22 downed cruise missiles. After, however, the number of “downed” missiles decreased to 16.

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In Lviv, according to preliminary information, the LORTA plant for the production of radio equipment was hit , as well as the territory near the new terminal of the city airport.

Local authorities also reported damage to residential infrastructure, but this appears to have been the result of the Kalibr interception: one of the images shows fragments of a rocket lying on the ground, and clear traces of shrapnel can be traced on the houses.

According to military correspondent Alexander Kots , Western-style ammunition was stored at the arrival points. At the same time, work on the modernization of Ukrainian Air Force aircraft for the use of foreign aviation weapons could well have been going on at the LORTA plant.

In Dnepropetrovsk, the territory of the YuMZ plant was attacked. At least five arrivals have been recorded in the vicinity. According to some information, the workshops were not damaged, the missiles hit the plant, but did not cause serious damage.

Destruction of BMP Marder and BTR Stryker in the Orekhovsky area

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This morning, the Zaporozhye Front posted footage of the work of the operators of the Lancet loitering shells on enemy armored vehicles. Judging by the characteristic machine gun turret, a Stryker armored personnel carrier was destroyed by the drone .

This is the first recorded defeat of the American armored personnel carriers at the front after their transfer to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to some reports, the Strykers were supplied to the 82nd Air Assault Brigade of the Airborne Forces of Ukraine.

The 82nd Airborne Brigade itself is part of the so-called Maroon tactical group , which also includes the 46th airmobile and 71st jaeger brigades, as well as 132nd reconnaissance battalions. Until that moment, only the 4th battalion of the 46th oambr was involved in the battles.

Also on the footage published by the Archangel of the Spetsnaz, you can see the German infantry fighting vehicle Marder , which came under attack east of Rabotino , where in recent days the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been storming strongholds and trying to gain a foothold.

"Marders" are also in service with units of 82 odshbr. The appearance of armored vehicles of these types indirectly confirms the fact of a more massive introduction of the Marun TGr into battle. Initially, this formation was planned to be used by the second wave in the Pologovsky area. And their involvement in Rabotino now does not come from a good life.

The situation on the front line and the fighting

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On the South Donets Front, after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Urozhaynoye , the village moved into a gray zone. Confident control of the enemy is maintained only on the northern outskirts, in the south the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to dig in, but they are being hit by artillery and aircraft. Nevertheless, two DRGs from the 35th and 37th infantry regiments, supported by artillery using cluster munitions, attacked the positions of the Russian Armed Forces near Zavitne Bazhenya , but the attack was repulsed. At the same time, a Ukrainian R18 drone was operating in the air.

Judging by the movements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the offensive in the Vremievsky sector will resume soon. And there can be several directions of impact in this direction. Assault groups of 128 mod trot arrived in Staromayorskoe along with anti-tank systems and machine guns. Also, units of the 1st brigade, including large-caliber mortars, were moved to Urozhaynoye , formations of the 31st mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine appeared on the Priyutnoye site.

Considering the foregoing, an enemy offensive should be expected immediately in at least three directions: Priyutnoye , Staromlinovka and Novodonetskoye ( artillerymen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine increased the intensity of fire with cluster shells along the line ).

And if we take into account the introduction of the Marun tactical group in the Orekhovsky sector, an attempt to break through to the Sea of ​​\u200b\u200bAzov can begin as soon as possible.

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In the Zaporozhye sector of the front, south of Orekhov , the consolidated units of the 46th detachment, 118th detachment and 15th detachment of the NSU continue attacks near Rabotino . To the east of the village, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to gain a foothold in strongholds a few kilometers away, hiding behind landings.

Also, attempts by the DRG of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to enter Rabotino itself became more and more frequent. On the northeastern outskirts, Ukrainian detachments, under cover of fire with cluster munitions, are rolling into the village. Forest belts adjoin the settlement, and the enemy moves along them.

Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to develop the offensive further. Additional forces of their 10 AKs, as well as the tactical group "Marun", the paratroopers of the 82nd airborne brigade of which have already fallen into a meat grinder near the village, have been pulled to Malaya Tokmachka .

Also, new Starlink terminals have been deployed in Malaya Tokmachka , and training and coordination of assault units continues at the training ground in Upper Tersa , which are likely to go into battle in the event of at least some success at Rabotino.

Judging by the wedging of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the east of the village, the Ukrainian command wants to take Rabotino into a semi-encirclement and strike with a mechanized fist in the direction of Tokmak . However, the appearance of the Marun TGr at this stage makes one think that the enemy’s plans had to be adjusted due to losses of 118 ombr.

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The main attention in the Kherson direction in the last 24 hours was attracted by the destruction of the S-300 air defense system in the vicinity of Zeleny Guy east of Nikolaev . As a result of an accurate hit, two launchers and an air defense system control center were destroyed.

However, against this background, other information was hardly noticeable: the day before, our fighters launched a counterattack to the west of the Cossack Camps , where Ukrainian formations were densely dug in.

In fierce battles under heavy artillery and mortar fire from the enemy, Russian troops completely cleared the left bank of the presence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and established control over the surrounding area.

Nevertheless, enemy activity on the right bank remains. The cannonade does not stop for a minute. The loss of the bridgehead at the Camps is unlikely to stop the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and after the regrouping, new landing attempts should be expected. Moreover, under the Antonovsky Bridge, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still there.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

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At night, Ukrainian formations tried to strike in the Bryansk region . Three aircraft-type UAVs were found at night and shot down near the village of Zhiryatino . There were no casualties and no damage.

In addition, in the afternoon, the RF Armed Forces and the Border Guard Department of the FSB prevented the penetration of enemy DRGs near the village of Kurkovichi , as reported by the governor of the region. An employee of an agricultural enterprise was injured, production facilities were damaged, and one animal died.

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New Tavolzhanka , Wet Orlovka and Kozinka in the Belgorod Region were shelled . In the Shebekinsky urban district , the air defense system worked, the victims were avoided, the garage and a car in a private household were damaged.

In Novaya Tavolzhanka, three mines exploded next to a private residential building. A man and a woman were injured, the victims were taken to medical facilities. The injured man died from his injuries. In other settlements, there were no casualties.

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The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to terrorize the civilian population of the Donetsk People's Republic . Two people were wounded in the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk . The Kirovsky , Petrovsky and Kievsky districts also suffered from shelling .

Despite a certain decrease in the dynamics of the shelling of the DPR, Ukrainian formations continue to intensively strike at civilian infrastructure and residential buildings. In total, more than 100 arrivals were recorded in the settlements of Aleksandrovka , Golmovsky , Gorlovka , Makeevka and Yasinovataya .

In the Kherson region, Ukrainian formations again attacked Kakhovka , Nova Kakhovka , Sagam and Cossack Camps . In addition, enemy drones attacked the village of Dnepryany , as a result of which the settlement was left without power supply. The shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine led to the fact that forest fires quickly spread in the Novokakhovsk urban district against the background of the summer heat , posing a threat to the civilian population and the nature of the region.

Political events
On the policy of total mobilization in Ukraine

The Ukrainian authorities continue to block the channels through which the citizens liable for military service left the country, fleeing from mobilization. After the recent personnel purge of the heads of the military registration and enlistment offices in Ukraine, they want to strengthen control over the departure of men abroad. To do this, it is planned to start an exchange between the databases of border guards and the Unified State Register of conscripts and persons liable for military service, so that at the border it would be possible to verify the authenticity of the document on the basis of which the man wants to go abroad.

We have repeatedly written about the reasons for such radical steps, as well as about problems with mobilization in Ukraine. The Western media did not bypass this topic either. According to the Financial Times, the total number of Ukrainian men who were detained while trying to travel abroad is equivalent to five brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, while it is not completely known how many of those who were able to successfully leave the country. The Guardian notes a general decline in the desire of Ukrainian men to fight. In turn, the New York Times links the actions of the Kiev authorities with heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , as well as "blood fatigue" during the counteroffensive.

On the next package of Western military assistance to Ukraine

Sweden has announced a new $314 million military aid package . This was announced by Minister of Defense Paul Jonsson . This package includes ammunition and spare parts for combat vehicles, tanks and artillery systems supplied by the West to Ukraine. The Swedish Riksdag also plans to give permission for the sale of RB 99-AMRAAM air-to-air missiles to the United States. After purchasing these missiles, the US plans to transfer from Ukraine. In total, since February, Ukraine has received $2.16 billion in aid from Sweden , of which $1.67 billion is military supplies.

About standing at the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra

The Ukrainian authorities continue to put pressure on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the MP. In the morning, armed security forces broke into the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra , where believers and monks had previously closed, and started checking the documents of local parishioners. In addition, a special access regime was introduced for monks: they were allowed to stay on the territory of the Lavra, but if they left the territory of the monastery, they were no longer allowed back. During the day, the policemen continued to be on duty at the main entrance, inspecting the personal belongings of those leaving the territory of the Lavra. Some believers continue to stand in prayer in the Church of Agapit of the Caves .

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

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U.S. funds war, takes over Ukraine assets
August 15, 2023 Gary Wilson
War and Lenin in the 21st century, part 1

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A 2019 rally to protest against government plans to lift the moratorium on agricultural land sales, a step eagerly awaited by Wall Street’s BlackRock hedge fund but opposed by the Ukrainians fearing a foreign land grab. The sign reads, “No to sales of Ukrainian land.”


The U.S. is funding a proxy war against Russia — Congress has approved $113 billion for Ukraine — seizing Ukraine’s assets in the process.

The Obama administration helped overthrow Ukraine’s elected president in February 2014 and installed a far-right regime loyal to Washington. At the time, Joe Biden was the Obama administration’s point man on Ukraine. He visited the country more than half a dozen times from 2014 to 2016.

Beginning in 2014, Joe Biden’s son Hunter served on the board of a Ukrainian energy company, Burisma. Hunter was paid “as much as $50,000 per month,” according to the New York Times. Burisma was under investigation by a Ukrainian prosecutor, Viktor Shokin, for corruption. NPR reported in 2018:

“At an event at the Council on Foreign Relations in 2018, Biden said that on one of his many trips to Ukraine, he told the country’s leaders that they had to get rid of the prosecutor if they wanted $1 billion in U.S. aid.”

On Aug. 11, 2023, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed U.S. Attorney David Weiss as special counsel to lead an investigation into Hunter Biden.

Donald Trump says this shows Joe Biden committed corruption in Ukraine. Trump wants to dig up dirt on Biden for political purposes, but he is not and has never been against corruption. Corruption is Trump’s mode of operating.

Trump used his position as president to enrich himself and his family personally. For example, he stayed at his own hotels while on official business, which cost millions (much more than $50,000 a month). He also used his office to promote his own businesses, such as his Trump Organization.

In addition, Trump engaged in a more general, broader pattern of corruption. For example, he has been accused of making deals with foreign governments that benefited him personally, and he used his power as president to silence any complaints.

U.S. finance capital takes over

Meanwhile, U.S.-based finance capital really has taken Ukraine’s assets. “Your money is not charity, it’s an investment.” That’s what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his address to the U.S. Congress while visiting Washington on Dec. 21, 2022.

John Parker reported in Struggle-La Lucha:

The trajectory of the latest vampiric deals of the foreign investors was set in November when Zelensky signed over even more of his country’s sovereignty to a U.S. firm that will help broker the deals of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and independent foreign investors.

BlackRock Financial Markets Advisory and the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy signed a memorandum of understanding in November. According to President Zelensky’s official website: “In accordance with the preliminary agreements struck earlier this year between the Head of State and Larry Fink, the BlackRock team has been working for several months on a project to advise the Ukrainian government on how to structure the country’s reconstruction funds.


A report on the takeover of Ukraine’s agricultural land by the Oakland Institute published in 2023 says:

The war in Ukraine has been at the center stage of foreign policy and media reports since February 2022. Little attention, however, has been given to a major issue, which is at the core of the conflict – who controls the agricultural land in the country known as the “breadbasket of Europe?” …

“War and Theft: The Takeover of Ukraine’s Agricultural Land” exposes the financial interests and the dynamics at play leading to further concentration of land and finance.

The total amount of land controlled by oligarchs, corrupt individuals, and large agribusinesses is over nine million hectares — exceeding 28% of Ukraine’s arable land. The largest landholders are a mix of Ukrainian oligarchs and foreign interests — mostly European and North American …

Several agribusinesses, still largely controlled by oligarchs, have opened up to Western banks and investment funds — including prominent ones such as Kopernik, BNP, or Vanguard — who now control part of their shares. Most of the large landholders are substantially indebted to Western funds and institutions, notably the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the World Bank.

Western financing to Ukraine in recent years has been tied to a drastic structural adjustment program that has required austerity and privatization measures, including the creation of a land market for the sale of agricultural land. President Zelensky put the land reform into law in 2020 against the will of the vast majority of the population who feared it would exacerbate corruption and reinforce control by powerful interests in the agricultural sector. Findings of the report concur with these concerns. While large landholders are securing massive financing from Western financial institutions, Ukrainian farmers — essential for ensuring domestic food supply — receive virtually no support. With the land market in place, amidst high economic stress and war, this difference of treatment will lead to more land consolidation by large agribusinesses.

The report also sounds the alarm that Ukraine’s crippling debt is being used as a leverage by the financial institutions to drive post-war reconstruction towards further privatization and liberalization reforms in several sectors, including agriculture.


This is imperialism

Few would dispute that the war in Ukraine is an imperialist war, but the term is often distorted or misapplied.

Lenin’s book “Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism” is one of the most well-known and influential works on imperialism. It has been translated into many languages and read by millions of people around the world.

In it, Lenin sought to explain the economic roots of World War I and the roots of the split in the international labor and socialist movement, what was then called the Second International.

The Second International was shattered by the outbreak of the 1914 imperialist war. The international socialist movement had pledged to oppose imperialist wars and to oppose their own capitalists. But when the war erupted, many parties in the Second International failed to do that and supported their own capitalists’ imperialist war efforts.

The subtitle for Lenin’s “Imperialism” is “A Popular Outline.” It wasn’t intended to be a scholarly work. It was meant for a broad audience, the anti-war movement of the time who wanted to understand the war and how to stop it.

The war split the Second International into three factions: the pro-war social democratic parties in the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria), the pro-war parties of the Triple Entente (France, Britain, Russia, the United States, Italy, and Japan) and the Zimmerwald movement made up of various anti-war pacifist or revolutionary socialist parties.

In the Zimmerwald movement, the pacifists wanted to restore the Second International, something that never happened. The revolutionary socialists wanted to build a new Third International. That happened.

Lenin’s book is still a fundamental source for understanding imperialism, capitalism, and war.

In “Socialism and War,” Lenin wrote: “Capitalism has developed concentration to such a degree that whole branches of industry have been seized by syndicates, trusts, and associations of capitalist billionaires, and almost the entire globe has been divided up among the ‘lords of capital,’ either in the form of colonies or by enmeshing other countries in thousands of threads of financial exploitation. Free trade and competition have been superseded by the striving for monopoly, for the seizure of territory for the investment of capital, for the export of raw materials from them, and so forth. From the liberator of nations that capitalism was in the struggle against feudalism, imperialist capitalism has become the greatest oppressor of nations. Formerly progressive, capitalism has become reactionary; it has developed the forces of production to such a degree that mankind is faced with the alternative of going over to Socialism or of suffering years and even decades of armed struggle between the ‘great powers’ for the artificial preservation of capitalism by means of colonies, monopolies, privileges and national oppression of every kind.”

https://www.struggle-la-lucha.org/2023/ ... ne-assets/

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U.S. Capitalism and Why the Glut of ‘Wonder Weapons’ to Ukraine Won’t Make a Difference

Finian Cunningham

August 15, 2023

This war in Ukraine is the ghoulish epitome of Western capitalism, writes Finian Cunningham.

It is slowly and reluctantly dawning on Western officials and their servile media that the Ukraine counteroffensive is failing. Not only the two-month-old counteroffensive but indeed the entire conflict. Ukraine hasn’t a chance of prevailing against Russia’s superior forces.

Still, the violence and killing go on. No diplomacy, peace, or sanity. Why?

Only a couple of months ago, the Western media were full of bravado claims that the United States’ and NATO’s weapons and training would turn the tide for a “stunning victory” against Russia. Today, those same media are meekly reporting on a “grinding counteroffensive” (Washington Post, New York Times, CNN) and “failed expectations” (London Times).

How to explain the glaring conundrum? The United States and its European NATO allies have supplied the Kiev regime with up to $100 billion worth of weaponry over the past year, ranging from battlefield tanks to Patriot missiles. And the military gifts keep coming, with the Biden administration requesting another $12 billion for Ukraine last week. In the coming months, the U.S. and its allies are planning to supply F-16 fighter jets.

And yet all this mind-boggling largesse won’t make a difference to the outcome of an eventual Russian victory. Tens of thousands more Ukrainian soldiers will be killed of course and a wider all-out nuclear war with Russia is a reprehensible risk. But why does the insanity continue? Why are Western politicians and media not exploring diplomatic alternatives to the endless slaughter?

A fundamental reason for this debacle and ultimate scandal is the inherent vice of U.S. militarism. American militarism and that of other Western capitalist states is not about the conventional understanding of “military” or “defense” for the purpose of defending nations, or indeed for actually winning wars. The primary purpose of American and Western militarism is to make profits for private corporations, the military-industrial complex.

Typically, the weapons are vastly overpriced, overhyped and designed for perpetual consumption. Take the U.S.-made Patriot air-defense system, or the Abrams tank, or the F-35 fighter jets. Independent military analysts will tell you these systems are overpriced junk that don’t really do the job they are supposed to do. Russian forces have been wiping out the Patriot and Western tanks with relative ease using superior hypersonic weapons.

Michael Hudson, the respected geopolitical commentator and author of the book ‘Superimperialism’, nails it when he observes that U.S. militarism is not about essentially defending that nation or its allies – it’s all about corporate profiteering. The weapons created by the U.S. military-industrial complex are not purposed for the conventional definition of military performance, that is to knock out the enemy and win battles.

“The arms are for creating huge profit for the U.S. military-industrial complex,” commented Hudson in a recent interview with Steven Grumbine.

In the case of Ukraine, he added, U.S. and NATO weapons “are for buying, and they’re for giving to the Ukrainians, to let Russia blow them up. But they’re not for fighting. They are not for winning a war. They’re for being used up, so you have to replace them now, with yet new buying.”

The conflict in Ukraine is exposing the long-held hype and charade attached to American and NATO weaponry. It’s being brutally outed as a paper tiger.

What Hudson is describing, in effect, is the utter scam and scandal of the U.S.-led proxy war in Ukraine against Russia. It’s on a level of Catch-22-style farce. It’s a racket for profiteering by U.S. and Western military industries. All paid for by taxpayers in the West and with the blood of Ukrainians blown to smithereens or maimed for life.

Fundamentally, this is what U.S. and Western capitalism is all about. The economic system for elite private profit is driven by militarism and global exports of arms. Western capitalism has long abandoned civilian industrial production and over the last few decades has become dominated by the military-industrial complex that owns politicians, media and lawmakers to do its bidding.

The war in Ukraine was instigated by NATO expansionism and strategic threat to Russia over many years. Moscow’s warnings were habitually dismissed. That was part of the showdown demanded by the U.S. executive of Western imperialism to subjugate Russia as a geopolitical rival, in the same way that China is also targeted. But in addition to that came the ultimate racket of funneling weapons to Ukraine. Not only that, but the European lackeys will now be obliged to stock up their depleted arsenals for decades to come by buying from Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and so on. It’s a perfectly rigged system.

By contrast, Russia’s military is designed to actually defend its nation. Russian weapons are outperforming NATO’s junk in Ukraine because the former are not manufactured for private profit and Wall Street investors but for the purpose of actually winning wars.

That’s why Ukraine is losing this conflict, disastrously and despicably. The weapons funneled to the Kiev regime were never meant to “defend a nation from Russian aggression”. That was just the laughable public relations hype to sell expensive weapons funded by Western taxpayers. Of course, the Nazi Kiev regime has milked the cash cow with corruption, but the bigger problem is the war racket at the rotten heart of U.S. capitalism and its military-industrial complex.

The Ukrainian puppet president Vladimir Zelensky is crying for more weapons. Of course, the corrupt Kiev regime is. Biden and Western politicians are calling for more weapons. Of course, they are. Their political funding depends on lobbyists from the weapons companies. The Western media distort the obscenity as “grinding counteroffensive”. Of course, they do because they are locked into their own self-serving lies about the war in Ukraine.

The corrupt Kiev regime rounds up civilians to be sent to a slaughterhouse while U.S. corporations and Wall Street feast on profits. And Western workers and the public are bled white from austerity. This war in Ukraine is the ghoulish epitome of Western capitalism.

https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023 ... ifference/

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Image
“Harold Pinter (photograph)” by Beaton, Cecil is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.

Seymour Hersh: Harold Pinter had it right
By Seymour M. Hersh (Posted Aug 15, 2023)

Originally published: ScheerPost on August 13, 2023 (more by ScheerPost)

The British playwright and Nobel Prize winner Harold Pinter was an early critic of the Bush administration’s decision, endorsed by British Prime Minister Tony Blair, to declare a worldwide war on Islamist terrorism in the aftermath of 9/11. In the fall of 2002, Pinter was invited to make his case against the war before the House of Commons. He began his talk with a bit of embellished British history about an earlier wave of terror in Ireland:

There’s an old story about Oliver Cromwell. After he had taken the town of Drogheda the citizens were brought to the main square. Cromwell announced to his Lieutenants: ‘Right! Kill all the women and rape all the men.’ One of his aides said: ‘Excuse me General. Isn’t it the other way around?’ A voice from the crowd called out: ‘Mr. Cromwell knows what he’s doing!’

The voice in the crowd in Pinter’s telling was Blair’s, but today it could be German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has kept his silence about when and what he knew about President Biden’s decision to mangle Germany’s economy by destroying the Nord Stream pipelines last September.

There were two sets of pipelines, both partially financed by Russian oligarchs who were beholden to President Vladimir Putin. Nord Stream 1 went into operation in 2011, and within ten years Russia was providing Germany more than half of its overall energy needs, with most of the inexpensive gas targeted for industrial use. Nord Stream 2 was completed by the summer of 2021, but never brought into use. By February 2022, at the start of the war, Scholz halted the pipeline’s certification process. Nord Stream 2 was loaded with gas meant for delivery to Germany, but its huge payload was blocked on arrival by Scholz, obviously at the request of the Biden administration.

Last September 26, the two pipelines were destroyed by underwater bombs. It was not known at the time who was responsible for the sabotage, amid the usual Western accusations against Russia and Russian denials. In February, I published a detailed account of the White House’s role in the attack, including an assertion that a major goal of Biden’s was to prevent Scholz from reversing his decision to stop the flow of Russian gas to Germany. My account was denied by the White House and as of today no government has accepted responsibility.

Germany muddled through last year’s preternaturally warm winter, as the government provided generous energy subsidies for homes and businesses. But since then, the lack of Russian gas has been the major factor in rising energy costs that have led to a slowdown in the German economy, the fourth largest in the world. The economic crunch resulted in a rise of political opposition to the political coalition Scholz leads. Another divisive issue is the steady rise in immigration applications from the Middle East and Africa and the more than one million Ukrainians who have fled to Germany since the war in Ukraine began.

Polling in Germany has consistently shown enormous discontent with the economic crisis it faces. One survey analyzed by Bloomberg last month found that only 39 percent of German voters believe the country will be a leading industrial nation in the next decade. The dispatch specifically cited internal political infighting over the nation’s home and business heating subsidy policies but did not mention a major cause of the crisis—Biden’s decision to destroy the Nord Stream pipelines.

A review of recent reporting on the German economic crisis in German, American, and international business publications—much of it excellent—yielded not a single citation of the pipeline’s destruction as a major reason for national pessimism. I couldn’t help wondering what Pinter would have said about the self-censorship.

In July Politico reported that Robert Habeck, the German vice chancellor and economic minister, a member of the Green Party, warned that the country was certain to face a shrinking economy and a transition to green energy that “will put a burden” on the population. In May, the German government announced that the country had entered a recession. Some of the nation’s companies, according to Politico,

have begun to ditch the Fatherland, triggering fears of deindustrialization.

Habeck said the economic downturn could be explained by high energy prices, which Germany felt more intensely than other countries “because it relied on cheap Russian gas.” The article did not state why there is no longer Russian gas flowing to Germany.

The refusal of the White House or any of the Scandinavian nations—Norway, Sweden, and Denmark—who provided support for the covert American sabotage of the pipelines to accept responsibility for their actions turned out be an important asset for Scholz, who met with Biden at the White House in February of 2022 when Biden directly threatened to destroy Nord Stream 2. Asked how he would respond if Russia invaded, Biden said,

If Russia invades . . . there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.

Scholz said nothing in public and returned to the White House last winter for a private two-day visit—his plane carried no members of the German media with him—that included a long one-on-one session with Biden. There was no state dinner nor a press conference, other than a brief exchange of platitudes with the president in front of the White House press corps, who were not permitted to not to ask questions.

It is impossible not to ask once again whether Biden had briefed the chancellor about the pending operation last February and also warned him in advance of the pipeline destruction last September. Scholz’s continued silence about an act of violence against his state can only be described as mystifying, especially as the energy crisis intensified in recent months to the point where the German people were suffering. The end of the pipelines also removed a potential disastrous political dilemma for the chancellor: if the pipelines were still intact but shut down at his command, pressure would have been high for him to open the valves and let the gas flow from those who believed keeping the German people warm and prosperous was more important than supporting the White House, NATO, and Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, in a war that need not have been fought.

It just may be that the White House, by keeping him in the loop, saved him from a career-ending conundrum: to support NATO and America in war or protect his people and German industry.

Last October, Lisa Hänel, reporting for Deutche Welle, a state-owned television network, pointed to one immediate social cost of the lack of Russian gas for the German middle class: regional German welfare workers told her that “more people are worried that they can no longer cope with rising prices and energy costs.” Discussing the impact of the lack of cheap Russian gas on those in the lower and middle income scales, which includes 18 million people in Germany who are struggling to stay warm and well fed, she wrote that they “could be hit hard by inflation and the energy crisis.”

Adam Button, a Canadian economic analyst who writes for ForexLive.com, published an essay last month under the title “The pillars of Germany’s economy are crumbling. Three reasons for worry.” His three reasons: industrial production is declining; deficits are increasing; and energy costs are rising.

Auto production and exports “are at the heart of the German economy,” Button writes. “Their machines,” he writes,

have powered Europe and been a worthy competitor to the U.S. and Japan. But there is a new rival: China. The burgeoning automotive manufacturing sector in China is coming for everyone but Germany’s export-sensitive model may be most at risk from China’s EVs. At best, it’s a formidable wave of competition that hurts margins and weakens Germany. At worst, it hollows Germany’s key high-wage industry.

The supply of cheap energy, which Nord Stream I produced, comes into play in Button’s analysis:

Germany’s economic model is exporting manufactured goods, with China as a target market. Competition from China is already a major obstacle but it’s compounded by rising energy costs. Germany survived the winter of 2023 better than I expected but that was with heavy subsidies and good weather. That’s not a formula for the long term and aside from pie-in-the-sky hydrogen talk, I don’t see a way for Germany to get away from expensive imported LNG [liquefied natural gas].

Last week German economy minister Robert Habeck offered up a harsh truth. He said Germany faces five difficult years of deindustrialization from high energy prices. He called for more subsidies for energy as a bridge to around 2030 when he estimates that green energy will take over.

The problem for that is budgetary. Eurozone countries are bound to deficits of less than 3%. Germany is currently running at 4.25%, up from 2.6% a year ago. Finance ministry estimates see the deficit falling to 0.75% in 2026 but that assumes that all energy subsidies are ended. Therein lies the rub: Either they cut the subsidies and lose industry or subsidize and break deficit rules.

For years, Germany was the policeman of the deficit system and periphery countries may wish to give it back some of its own medicine and the German public is also famously austere. The problem is that even if high subsidies stay in place, German industry is under heavy pressure. If anything, the subsidies need to be stepped up. . . .

There is a window for large subsidies but the government must decide if that fiscal ammunition should be spent on subsidizing industry, the green transition or some combination of both. Ideally, the taps would be fully opened but I fear that old instincts around spending will win out, dooming Germany’s economy.

The loss of inexpensive Russian gas has also affected the German multinational chemical producer BASF, which employs more than 50,000 people in its home country. The company has announced a series of cutbacks since the pipelines were demolished. Thousands of workers have been laid off, and the firm shut down one of its major facilities. An industry news account of its cutbacks explain that the war in Ukraine “has sharply reduced natural gas supplies in Europe and boosted BASF’s energy bill on the continent by $2.9 billion in 2022.”

Button’s article, like of all those reviewed for this report, did not mention the main cause of the reduced supply of natural gas. Nor did it say that it was the destruction of the pipelines that forced BASF to make a change in its plans for a $11 billion investment in a state-of-the-art complex that it hailed as the gold standard for sustainable production. The project will be built in China.

“We are increasingly worried about our home market,” chief executive Martin Brudermüller explained to shareholders last April. “Profitability is no longer anywhere near where it should be.” He added that the firm lost close to $143 million in Germany last year, after many decades of constant profit.Pinter, who died in 2008, would have relished the irony of the Biden administration, in its attempt to protect its political and economic investment in the Ukrainian war effort against Russia, may have given China, another nemesis of the White House, a helping hand.

https://mronline.org/2023/08/15/seymour ... -it-right/

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PUTIN AND SHOIGU ON NATO, ITS POSSIBLE INTEGRATION WITH AUKUS AND THE WAR IN UKRAINE
Aug 15, 2023 , 11:51 a.m.

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There is evidence that Ukraine's military resources are almost exhausted, the Russian Defense Minister said (Photo: Russian Defense Ministry)

This Tuesday, August 15, the XI Moscow Conference on International Security was held, an event organized by the Ministry of Defense in which more than 800 delegates from 76 countries participate, including ministers and vice-ministers of that area and heads of state. Elderly. Their counterparts from China and Belarus confirmed their attendance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin framed his speech on specific issues such as the defense of sovereignty, the interest of some States in promoting conflicts and the attempt to take the war to other spaces. We summarize part of his intervention:

*A multipolar world is being formed based on the defense of sovereignty, national interests, traditions, culture and way of life, which could become "an important basis" for "stable and progressive world development" that provides "just solutions and true to social, economic, technological and environmental problems".

*There are countries that resist these alternatives, which is why they create and fuel sources of conflict to "continue profiting from human tragedies, divide peoples, force nations into vassal submission under a neocolonial system and mercilessly exploit their resources."

*Western nations plan to integrate NATO forces into the Aukus bloc (Australia, the United Kingdom and Washington) with a view to expanding their reach into the Asia-Pacific region. He noted that this could lead to "full integration" of NATO-Aukus.

*Only the joint efforts of the international community will make it possible to "reduce confrontation on a global and regional scale, neutralize challenges and risks, strengthen trust between States and open up ample opportunities for their development."

During his speech, the Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, offered some keys on the war in Ukraine, which we present below:

*There is evidence that Ukraine's military resources are nearly exhausted.
*Ukrainian prisoners of war speak negatively of the combat training provided by NATO instructors.
*He criticized the double talk of the United States, which points to the use of cluster bombs as a war crime, but at the same time supplies these weapons to its Slavic ally.
*The Special Military Operation ended the dominance of the West in the military arena.
*Western weapons, supposedly advanced NATO planning methods, and troop management methods do not guarantee battlefield superiority.
*Defense policy in Europe is subordinated to the interests of the United States.
*For its part, Russia is multiplying arms production in record time.
*Soviet-era weapons surpass Western models in terms of combat capabilities in many cases.

https://misionverdad.com/putin-y-shoigu ... en-ucrania

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Thu Aug 17, 2023 11:48 am

the saddest place
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 08/17/2023
Original article: Dmitry Steshin / Komsomolskaya Pravda

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There is no place sadder than the cities and towns of Donbass through which military operations have passed, destroyed everything and left. Only the graves are sadder in those towns in the hot zonethat still exist. Those towns do not leave, they breathe, they survive. The outside world is no longer interested in these places. Their names have long since disappeared from the war reports, the news followed the military action and then time stopped. Even humanitarian aid volunteers come less and less often. In these towns, many times there is no electricity, roads, communications do not work well, the apartment buildings are destroyed, the mines are flooded and the electrical cables are undermined. The only thing in abundance is silence, broken at dawn only by the sound of one of the few generators. If you understand what is happening, the words of a local peasant or a former miner no longer seem like a game: “I have already forgotten how everything was here before, I only remember the war as life. There are a lot of people, there is always someone to talk to. They will feed and treat their own, they will ask for water, you will help them with something... and now nothing happens, I don't even know what day of the week it is anymore. Because?"

I find myself in the last city life in this direction. Together with the volunteers, I speak with the deputy mayor of the Pervomaisk administration, who is responsible for construction and reconstruction. I guess he's not very interested in us or a school in a half-dead town. There is an apartment building behind it, the heating season is already in sight and the skilled workers can be counted on the fingers of one hand. But, at the same time, Alexander Sopolev understands that the school is needed. I hear the words “a socially significant objective”, it is something that is said in official speeches, but it reflects the essence. And the officer believes in our project: “I have no doubt that the school wing can be repaired and working. Not for September 1, it's true, but for the third quarter. But the light? There is no light and it is not clear when there will be.”

Ruslan Yerzin, our mission leader, interrupts: “How is it possible! They said there would be electricity by the fall.” Alexander Sopolev resigns himself: “To bring electricity, we first have to clean the high-voltage lines. Right now we don't have sappers." The officer thinks for a second and finds a solution: “We will use the generators from the heating points we used last winter. We will have them, I promise. But there are no workers, you will have to look for them”.

Ruslan gets in my car. He is quite satisfied with the conversation. We have support and everyone understands the importance of this project. If the school opens, some thirty minors from the surrounding towns will be able to attend. But the generators…that is not found anywhere in this area. Ruslan is covered in tattoos which I peek at. They are obviously a distraction in meetings with “men in suits”, but he talks intelligently and knows how to push when necessary and give his approval when required. He is a professional in the construction industry, he understands roofing repairs and will do whatever it takes to fix the one at the school. He says that it is possible to do it without bringing workers: the local population has already organized to restore the school. “One wing has survived, the old nursery. Some windows are broken and the roof is leaking, but there is no irreparable damage. People have accepted the idea of ​​the school, we are already collecting construction material”.

We brake next to Toshkovka-Nishnee. An older man, a worker in the military commander's office, notices Ruslan's tattoos with unusual clarity. But he finds nothing wrong with them. He is also amused by my name: “Steshin. I've heard it somewhere, maybe in training? I'm not from the orientation, but I hand him the car keys and passports and he warns us that we will be shot at from the apartment buildings. A red-haired activist, Tatiana, who rushes up to us from Toshkovka, doesn't help to lighten the situation even though she receives some compliments.

The volunteers go to the administration to prepare the permits. I give the commander the last can of energy drink and note that “we are not enemies, the local population can confirm it, we have all the papers. We have a good work, the school”. The commander sighs and says: “Come on, I'll show you something. We got it last night." We approach the block of flats. He shows me indications of a sabotage group that may be trying to infiltrate our rear. The saboteurs have been trained by British special forces. They are dressed in paramilitary uniforms. Now I understand everything.

We wait for the messengers with the papers. But I find time to talk to the guys from the “Inter Brigade”. They have been taking over the towns for a long time, since their release. The population had nothing, even pillows had to be brought to them. Ruslan says that once they brought a shipment of shoes to the town: "It was the hit of the season, people had nothing to walk around in."

Toshkovka is completely destroyed. The school was destroyed by artillery, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had set up their headquarters there. And the banderistas lived in the five-story building across the street. I am not an expert, but I understand that all this is to throw away. Ruslan explains: “Only two people live in these houses, a family. They hung a large Russian flag on its facade in the spring. They said: this is our land and we are not going anywhere. People have started to come back. There will be schools, electricity will be connected and they will return.

Only those who had cars and went to the Russian side during the battle will be able to return. Ukraine took the others and quickly brainwashed them. This is how the redhead Tatiana, who had tried to help us before, explains it to me. She says: “I am a rashistka [a mixture of Russian and fascist, a term that Ukrainian officials have generalized as an insult against the Russian population - Ed ], that's what my former fellow citizens, who fled to Ukraine, say about me. For cooperating with the volunteers. We communicate by chat. And that's what I don't understand. They know perfectly well that they began to shell us when there were no Russian troops here. They have already forgotten. As?"

The old school nursery was hit, but I've seen photos of Mariupol that were scarier and more hopeless. Everyone has lived in the nursery, from Ukrainians to musicians. I understand, I myself lived in a class near Mariupol for three months. I ask the future director Alla Yurevna: “What about the old Toshkovka-Nizhnee school?” The answer is surprising. The Ukrainians burned down all the schools in the district. So that? The director explains: “That's what they said. Your children will not study. They poured gasoline and set them on fire, we saw it.” I quote a scene that shocked me in the television series about The White Guard, when Garmash, who played Petliura Bolbotun's colonel, tells the mayor: burn this school, it's bad, Moskal. The haidamakis go to Kiev and the school burns behind them. Alla and Tatiana have not watched the series, it was banned immediately after the Maidan. He did not expect to see an image of Petliura in the 21st century.

Alla Yurevna explains that only two hours a week were devoted to Russian in the burned-out school and nothing in the surrounding schools. After the law on the use of the language adopted by Poroshenko and approved by Zelensky, the lessons were canceled. The directors who wanted to, took optional Russian classes, those who didn't want to went to Ukraine. No Ukrainian is spoken here, only Russian and Surzhik.

Tatiana tells me: “They called themselves defenders, but it was only in words. They came in a tank and a grandfather from our town went to them and asked why they were destroying our roads”.

"What did they say?"

"They laughed at him and told him that the dead don't need roads."

As we chat, Ruslan is hanging from the roof and switches to a more optimistic theme: “I thought it would be worse. The roof of our wing is damaged in two places. But we'll change everything, it's long overdue. Is there somewhere to put the material? Tomorrow I will bring it from Stakhanov”.

Alla Yurevna nods and says happily: “I forgot to say. The other day they brought desks and chairs for our school. They are in the club, we have a warehouse there, but we will find a place for the construction material, of course”.

Volunteer Olga, a nurse from Lisichansk, approaches us. She comes driving a truck. She can also change a radiator while the men around her hand her tools. She carries a few rounds of ammunition in her hand and comments on what she has found: “Obviously, they are not needed at school. Thanks to the soldiers, I don't know which army, but our soldiers will be happy”. Olga brings those of us who had been dreaming back to reality. We hear sounds from the horizon: the Ukrainian Armed Forces are unsuccessfully trying to advance on Artyomovsk. Grandfather Grigory arrives, a volunteer in the local repair brigade. They have made several subbotniks and they have cleaned all the rubbish from the building. Grigory worked at school, and his future also depends on her. We measure the windows, but Tatiana stops: “Guys, the curfew is from nine. You will not have time to go out, you will stay with me”.

We finished measuring and rushed down the road dodging the potholes. But still I stop next to a girl on the side of the road. He has been there for three hours waiting for her mother, who left for the hospital. There is no public transport and there is almost no one to take you, so it is not clear when it will return. I give her a bag of chocolates so the wait won't be so bitter. Nastia won't go to school for another year. By then, we will have time to repair it.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/08/17/el-lu ... more-27943

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(To borrow Slavyangrad's motto, OUR ANGER HAS NO LIMITS. (C) VM MOLOTOV)


******

Chronicle of the special military operation for August 16, 2023
August 17, 2023
Rybar

Last night, the RF Armed Forces attacked the port infrastructure in Reni , Odessa region . Attack drones hit various targets in the port area: it is reliably known about hits in hangars with grain and an elevator.

In the Starobelsky direction, on the Raygorodok-Karmazinovka line , the enemy does not abandon attempts to break through the Russian defensive lines. Positional clashes continue in the Serebryansky forestry area.

The situation in the Soledar direction has become calmer. At the same time, heavy clashes remain on the outskirts of Kleshcheevka . Fighting continues in the Maryinsky sector in the Donetsk direction . The activity of the enemy DRG is noted.

The main battles in the Vremievsky sector are taking place in the area of ​​​​Urozhaynoye and Staromayorsky . Artillery and air strikes are inflicted on the accumulations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Despite the heavy losses of equipment and personnel, the enemy continues offensive operations in the Orekhovsky sector. The most fierce battles are going on in Rabotino .

In the Kherson direction, the tense situation remains near the Antonovsky bridge . Both sides are firing at each other. Despite the loss of the bridgehead at the Cossack Camps , the Ukrainian formations do not give up their attempts to find gaps in the defense and throw the DRG on the left bank of the Dnieper.

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Attacks of the Russian Armed Forces on the port of Reni

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At night, the RF Armed Forces attacked the port infrastructure in Reni , Odessa region, twice. Despite everyday claims by the enemy about the interception of Geraniums fired, videos of the explosions indicate that the drones have reached their targets. Analysis of materials from open sources allows us to geolocate at least three places of arrival: drones hit the hangars with grain, as well as the elevator. Some of the colorful shots were filmed by the inhabitants of Romania from the opposite bank of the river.

In the past two months, Russian troops have already launched attacks on the Danube ports of Reni and Izmail , from which the Kiev authorities are exporting agricultural products after the termination of the “grain deal”. From there, the Armed Forces of Ukraine also carry out attacks on the Crimea and the ships of the Black Sea Fleet. Against the backdrop of the intensification of Western intelligence in the Black Sea to prepare a massive raid on the peninsula, the need for attacks on the infrastructure on the Danube is increasing . At the same time, the question of choosing targets arises: in particular, old cranes standing in the port are a more critical node than hangars with grain.

Attempts by Ukrainian DRGs to enter the Bryansk region

The governor of the Bryansk region announced a repeated attempt by the enemy to cross the state border. According to the head of the region, at 7.00 a DRG of six people was discovered . As a result of joint actions of the RF Armed Forces, border guards and the National Guard, five saboteurs were killed. A similar episode took place yesterday near the village of Kurkovichi , where border guards liquidated four members of Ukrainian formations.

The FSB of Russia has published a video of the destroyed enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group, which yesterday tried to penetrate the border near the village of Kurkovichi, Bryansk region. The footage shows four well-equipped liquidated members of Ukrainian formations. Among the finds, you can also see FPV drones with Russian symbols and inscriptions “property of the FSB” to carry out provocations.

According to some reports, the entire group consisted of 15 saboteurs who stumbled upon a hidden position of Russian border guards. After a short-range battle, the enemy retreated, leaving the bodies of the dead. Unfortunately, there were losses on our side - one fighter was wounded and died on the way to the hospital. In addition to the aforementioned drones, the border guards also seized several Western-made small arms in full body kit, explosives and other components.

The strike of the RF Armed Forces on the plant "Yuzhmash" in Dnepropetrovsk

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On the night of August 14-15, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive missile attack on military and industrial facilities on the territory of Ukraine. In addition to the enterprise in Lvov , the Yuzhmash plant for the production of rocketry in Dnepropetrovsk was also targeted . Although the Ukrainian media published a photo of only one crater near the Meteor sports complex, eyewitnesses literally immediately reported two arrivals through the main assembly shop. Some time later, a video appeared on the Web confirming the arrivals at the building.

In previous years, the final assembly of Zenit launch vehicles was carried out there, but later it was “repurposed” under Grom-2 OTRK : it is possible that work was also going on there to modernize the S-200 anti-aircraft missiles. A hit on Yuzhmash could cause additional damage to Ukraine's missile program after the May strike on Pavlograd . Another target for the raid was to be the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau . However, the missile hit the entrance area and did not cause serious damage to the complex.

The situation on the front line and the fighting
In the Starobelsky direction at the Raygorodok - Karmazinovka line , the enemy does not abandon attempts to break through the Russian defensive lines, however, the effective work of the artillery of the RF Armed Forces did not allow the Armed Forces to move forward. NearPositional clashes continue ​​​​Serebryansky forestry , at the entrance of one of them the commander of a company of the 95th brigade was eliminated by sniper fire. In addition, in the Kupyansky sector , work continues to destroy the rear positions and places of concentration of enemy manpower, including the parking of enemy equipment.

In general, in the Soledar direction . The militants are trying to approach our positions only with infantry. Attacks with the support of armored vehicles now occur once every one and a half to two weeks. Heavy clashes continue on the outskirts of Kleshcheevka . Airborne units and volunteer formations hold the line, inflicting fire damage on enemy equipment and personnel, including those hiding in a forest near the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal .

According to information from the field, early in the morning the enemy made another attempt to roll in the direction of Berkhovka from the side Minkovka . Having successfully repulsed several attacks by Ukrainian formations, including using FPV drones and artillery, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were forced to retreat to their original positions with losses.

According to Raccoon from Kherson , thanks to productive counter-battery combat, the artillery crews of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to work at the maximum distance from the front line, which, on the one hand, complicates their defeat, and on the other hand, reduces the accuracy of firing at Russian positions on the front line. Nevertheless, the Russian operators of the Lancet UAV learned how to use the device to a rear depth of up to 50 kilometers, preventing enemy artillery from working quietly.

Fighting continues in the Maryinsky sector in the Donetsk direction . The Russian Armed Forces are destroying enemy armored vehicles hidden in plantings. Artillery is active on both sides. The activity of the enemy DRG is noted.

The main battles in the Vremievsky sector are taking place in the area of ​​​​Urozhaynoye and Staromayorsky . Both settlements are under enemy control. Artillery and air strikes are inflicted on the accumulations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The enemy continues to suffer losses in manpower and equipment.

[youtube]http://rybar.ru/wp-content/uploads/2023 ... p4[youtube]
The video from Staromayorsky testifies to the intensity of the fighting. At least 31 pieces of equipment were destroyed in the village itself and on the outskirts. Taking into account the defeat of armored vehicles and artillery in the rear, only in the battles for Staromayorskoye did the enemy lose an impressive amount of "armor" from Western supplies.

Despite the heavy losses of equipment and personnel, the enemy continues offensive operations in the Orekhovsky sector . The most fierce battles are going on in Rabotino . The enemy is trying to break through using foreign equipment and concentrating his key forces. The first use of the Marder BMP and the Stryker APC was recorded in this area . After a short time, footage of the destruction of this armored vehicle appeared. Apparently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will soon bring reserves from Challenger tanks into battle . Russian troops hold back the onslaught of the enemy with the help of aircraft, multiple rocket launchers, kamikaze drones and artillery.

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In the Kherson direction, the tense situation remains near the Antonovsky bridge . Both sides are firing at each other. Despite the loss of the bridgehead at the Cossack Camps as a result of the offensive actions of the RF Armed Forces, the Ukrainian formations do not give up their attempts to find gaps in the defense and throw the DRG on the left bank of the Dnieper.

Today, Russian servicemen prevented the transfer of five enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the Korsunka area . The boats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and personnel were destroyed by coordinated air and artillery strikes. Considering the regrouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the transfer of watercraft from Nikolaev , we can soon expect the resumption of active offensive operations of the enemy in the Kherson direction and an increase in the number of attempts to force the Dnieper.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

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Ukrainian formations attacked the village of Kurshanovichi in the Bryansk region . The shells damaged five residential buildings, as well as a school and a house of culture, there were no casualties.

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The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to shell the border area of ​​the Belgorod region . The shells damaged a house in the village of Popovka , Krasnoyarzhsky District, no one was hurt. Local residents also reported shelling of the villages of Terezovka and Prilesie , but no official information was received.
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This morning, Ukrainian formations fired at the village of Verbove in the Zaporozhye region . It is reported about the arrival of a rocket in the courtyard of a private house: one civilian was killed, there was no damage.

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During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continued the artillery terror of the Kherson region . New Kakhovka , Kakhovka , Sagi , Gornostaevka , Velikaya Lepetikha came under fire .

Political events

On exposing the scheme to evade mobilization

In the Nikolaev psychiatric hospital, a large-scale scheme for issuing fake certificates was exposed . The men were treated as mentally ill. Monthly earnings exceeded one hundred thousand dollars, although the service cost several times less than in the military registration and enlistment offices. Documents cost 1.5 thousand dollars, while in the military registration and enlistment offices the price of a “white ticket” started from five thousand dollars.

The fact that the Ukrainian state structures are consistently cutting off all opportunities to "slop down" indicates a shortage of personnel . However, not only the owners of fake certificates will go to the front line, but also really sick people.

On cooperation with Western countries to counter Russian UAVs

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said that Ukraine and Western partners will focus their efforts on combating Russian drones . The Armed Forces of Ukraine need ammunition, weapons, air defense systems, electronic warfare, devices for remote demining, as stated by Zaluzhny. In addition, strengthening the protection of infrastructure from air attacks was discussed.

On attacks near the border between Romania and Ukraine

The Romanian Ministry of Defense stated that it sees no military threats to the country against the backdrop of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure on the Danube. According to a press release, "The structures of the Ministry of National Defense responsible for monitoring the airspace have not identified any threats of a military nature to the territory and waters of Romania."
Obviously, the Romanian Armed Forces are well aware that Ukrainian air defense systems deserve more fear, on account of which dozens of hits on residential buildings and other civilian objects.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

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Schism and Faschism: Berlin Bulletin no: 214, August 16, 2023
By Victor Grossman (Posted Aug 16, 2023)

“Analogien hinken“—“analogies limp” in German: And yet some yellowing pages in my history books set alarm bells ringing in my worried mind.

Pleasant, hilly Thuringia, the “green lung” of Germany, has not always had pleasant times. One hundred years ago, after a socialist revolution had been squelched following World War One, Social Democrats and Communists in Thuringia and neighboring Saxony defiantly elected coalition governments. This could not possibly be tolerated! So the Berlin government, run by reliable, correct Social Democrats, sent in troops to put things back in order. Which they did. Seven years later, in 1930, Thuringia became the first state to include Nazi ministers in its cabinet. Only two at first. But in August 1932 the Nazis took over completely, four months before toing the same in all of Germany.

In 2014, when the LINKE (Left) party won first place (28.2%) in Thuringia, its leader, Bodo Ramelow, persuaded the smaller caucuses of Social Democrats and Greens to join him in a coalition, and he became the first and only LINKE minister-president. Panic seized the media: “The Reds are coming back in East Germany.” But Ramelow, no radical, was friendly, a good speaker, even had a sweet little pet dog. Many Thuringians, out of work when East Germany was swallowed up, could commute to jobs in nearby West German states and thus get along. In 2019 the LINKE came in first again (31.0%) and Ramelow rescued another shaky coalition.

But getting along is not so easy today. In the covid years many small cafes and restaurants bit the dust. Retail giants such as Amazon crushed down like a mudslide, emptying town centers. The Ukraine war with its sanctions against Russia (and that Baltic pipeline explosion, all too transparently dismissed, ignored and forgotten) brought blistering inflation; heating fuel, rent, grocery costs soared, evictions increased and food pantry lines lengthened. Worst hit were rural areas, with bank and post offices, even grocery supermarkets closing, doctors departing, bus or train service uneven or absent.

Some regions had enough jobs, permitting an increase in labor militancy, with wage gains deflecting some inflation hardships. But even in proverbially prosperous Germany the crystal ball of the finance experts was dimming. Yasmin Fahimi, head of Germany’s union federation, warned gloomily:

Care for children and the elderly is facing an emergency. As for education, if we don’t invest more we will end up with a catastrophe. And if our medical system policies are not changed our hospitals will also collapse… Our social cohesion is tearing apart… more and more people are being pushed to the edge of poverty while a very few get richer and richer.

The fragile trio coalition government was in constant stress. Economy Minister Robert Habeck, a Green, was ridiculed or reviled for his fumbling attempts to end atomic power, show a modicum of progress in climate control, push for fuel switchovers in homes and factories, but stay in cahoots with the corporations, foreign and domestic while expensive fracking gas from the USA replaced cheap Russian gas. He got little help from Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, also a Green, who was busy hunting for support in South America, South Asia or anywhere for her life-long project: “ruin Russia.” [VG1] [VG2]

Christian Lindner, Finance Minister and boss of the right-wing Free Democratic Party, also has a life goal: keeping taxes on the wealthy low and stymying any attempts by Greens or Social Democrats to offer traces of social consciousness and climb back up in the polls, with more elections in the offing.

Olaf Scholz, the Social Democratic chancellor, must try to herd three cat parties, all spitting at each other across his Cabinet table, while calming Zelensky and pleasing Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Pentagon boss Lloyd Austin. Ever more dangerous weapons are first denied, then OK’d, like the Leopard 2 tanks, and maybe fighter planes or Taurus missiles, all increasing the dangers of a fatal confrontation, while Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov boasts to his western armorers “that we are powerful partners who are de facto a Nato country.”

Some Social Democrats are timidly fearful of a lengthily, escalating war and the extra “€100 billion” to be spent on it. Others, in control now, sound as belligerent as Kaiser Wilhelm—or as subservient as the Social Democrats who cheered and approved his war in 1914—or some later German heroes. Such as Lars Klingbeil, co-leader of the SPD, who assured radio listeners that the turning point triggered by the Ukraine war will impact German politics “for the next 20 years… After almost 80 years of restraint, Germany now has a new role in the international coordinate system… For Germany, strengthening the Bundeswehr is important… peace policy means seeing military force as a legitimate means of politics.”

The Christians, though in Opposition, joined the competition in bellicose eagerness with an almost audible clicking of heels and sharp “Jawohl” retorts. Johann Wadephul, vice-chair of their Bundestag caucus, seconded: “The Bundeswehr must become the strongest conventional army in Europe.”

Lt Gen Ingo Gerhartz, the German air force head, was more specific:

‘By 2030, Europeans will have 600 modern fighter jets in the Baltic region.’ His plans for decades to come (if not employed earlier) became all too clear: ‘We need both the means and the political will to implement nuclear deterrence if necessary.’

Eighty years ago, in August 1943 near Kursk, Germans were defeated in the most immense tank battle of all time. Hardly known in the wider world, it was a more crucial battle even than Stalingrad, and far, far more than Anzio or Normandy in defeating Nazi fascism. For certain Germans the present war, with Bundeswehr troops in combat readiness in Lithuania while its ships and planes circle near once-besieged St. Petersburg—then Leningrad—smells of offering at last a chance at revenge.

By no means do all Germans have such an outlook. Neither the governing parties nor the Christian opposition are finding the hoped-for enthusiasm. Nor do the polls show them prospering.

Then who is prospering?

Financially speaking, it is clearly the weapon-makers, fantastically, from Raytheon to Rheinmetall. Higher prices, subsidies, increased productivity are also bountiful for other top dogs, from Amazon to Aldi, from Exxon Mobil to Koch. Frackers see European dreams fulfilled. A few East German cities like Dresden and Magdeburg are promised jobs when huge microchip factories try to gain independence of trade with China (and Taiwan or S. Korea) and maybe dampen undesirable big city disquiet.

But many of those not favored, with uncertain (or no) jobs, with growing trouble paying bills and uncertain futures for their children, distrustful of all established parties, want to register protest and do so by penciling their “x” next to Alternative for Germany, the AfD. East Germans especially, regardless of their views on the old GDR, feel they are still seen and treated as second-class citizens. And when racist orators lie to them that “immigrants,” “refugees,” ”Islamists” or simply “furriners”—whom they hardly know, since they live mostly in big West German cities or Berlin—are getting advantages and privileges denied to them while “hybridizing good German blood”, and when the mass media headlines such hatred—then the AfD marches on.

Back in 2014, in Thuringia, the young AfD started off with less than 11% of the votes, while the Linke led the field with 28%. Nine years later, with Linke Minister-President Bodo Ramelow, the LINKE has sunk to 23 % while the AfD, with 32.8, is tops in all Germany, the local king of the mountain. An evil king; behind the throne in Thuringia is Björn Höcke, a fascistic-type demagogue, loudly racist, almost openly anti-Semitic, who sometimes betrays his hopes for a national take-over, even though all other parties have refused thus far to join with the AfD in any way.

On June 26th Germany was shocked when an AfD candidate was elected as a county leader in southern Thuringia, beating (with 52.8%) the one opposing candidate who was supported by all other parties. The shock was compounded a week later when an AfD man was elected mayor in a small town in neighboring Saxony-Anhalt.

These victories provided a triumphant backdrop for a highly-publicized week-long national congress of the AfD, at which the far-right forces in the party lost out to the far-far-right forces, now openly speculating about their hopes to take over some day. As yet they have found no partners except in local hotbeds, but with the AfD now leading the polls in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg and in second place in the two others, their likely hold on 20-28% of the seats will make it very hard to form coalitions against them.

And some taboos are softening. Last month CDU leader Friedrich Merz hinted at possible collaboration. “We will have to accept such victories. Paths must naturally be found for working together locally in shaping policies for the town, the countryside, the county.” The media punctured this trial balloon and he backed down, but writing on the wall is becoming visible.

Again my thoughts turn to my faded history books, and to the uprisings—and then defeat of divided leftists between 1919 and 1933. Where today is the LINKE, the party of peace, anti-fascism, anti-imperialism, socialism? It is in a crisis!

A reformer wing, typified by Bodo Ramelow in Thuringia, leads the party in nearly every state—but in nearly every state the Linke have been hemorrhaging supporters. Local leaders in Berlin, also mostly reformers, lost out recently when Social Democrats pulled a switch, choosing to become junior partners of the Christian CDU and forcing Linke (and Greens) onto the cold opposition seats. In national polls the Linke, which barely squeaked into the Bundestag seats in 2021, as weakest party there, now stands at a very shaky 4-5%.

In its early years, fiercely maligned in the media, the party had fought back! After leftists in East and West joined hands in 2007, they achieved 11-12% support. But as it gained respectability and ambitious local leaders won cabinet seats, it was rarely seen protesting in the streets and factories, joining picket lines or fighting evictions. Vainly dreaming of becoming partners with Social Democrats and Greens at the top national level, its candidates largely refrained from alienating or irritating them, most clearly with its weakening stand on NATO and foreign policy. For dissatisfied voters, especially in the former GDR, it had become part of the establishment; increasingly they registered their protest with the AfD or simply didn’t vote. And the party’s aging base, the “old faithful” from GDR days, was literally dying out.

The opposing left wing, correctly or not, was symbolized by Sahra Wagenknecht, its universally known, strikingly controversial, abdicated co-chair of the caucus. The many differences (some of them personal in nature) really came to a head with the Ukrainian war.

In September 2022 Sahra (spelled that way because of her Iranian father, whom she never knew) made a brilliant speech in the Bundestag, not supporting or apologizing for Putin’s invasion but attacking NATO’s expansion and its provocative military and naval threats and maneuvers. She also opposed the sanctions against Russia, seeing it as an amputation of the German nose to spite the Russian face, with new seaports built to land expensive liquefied gas from American frackers.

Her speech shocked those Linke leaders who were tolerant of NATO and of liquefied gas and regretted the hitherto firm Linke policy opposing the export of armaments. Then, in February, Sahra and a top feminist leader circulated a manifesto demanding negotiations to end the Ukraine war. It quickly received over 700,000 signatures and was followed by a giant peace rally at Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate. But the top party leadership not only rejected both manifesto and rally, allegedly because the AfD slyly supported them (with a few signatures and a handful of uninvited participants among the 50,000 at the rally), but even called on party members to boycott it. For many, the pot had boiled over; they said the traditional position of the Linke as “party of peace” was being abandoned and abdicated in favor of the quasi-fascist but cleverly pragmatic AfD. Many decided to quit the Linke.

The pot boiled over again when Sahra raised the question of quitting and starting a new party, to be considered perhaps in October, perhaps at the end of the year. This step, bold but hardly clearcut, offered party leaders the opportunity to demand that Sahra either leave the party or be expelled. Her angered supporters called this the culmination of a long mobbing campaign against Sahra. Meanwhile some vague polls seemed to indicate that she was favored by a majority within the party and at least liked by a surprisingly large number of non-leftist Germans.

Soon more spices were added to the boiling pot. In July the party’s Executive Board suddenly named four candidates for the European Parliament elections in 2024. Aside from two holdovers, they chose the “doctor for the homeless” Gerhard Trabert and Carola Rackete, a sea captain famed for rescuing endangered refugees in the Mediterranean. Although undoubtedly very worthwhile citizens, neither are party members or have any political experience, and both seem quite comfortable with official German policy on the Ukraine war. Lime-lighted in the media before being discussed or voted upon by any but the Executive Board, this step was seen as another provocation.

In August the co-chair of the Linke caucus in the Bundestag, Amira Mohammed Ali quit her position (she’s no boxer, her name derives from her Egyptian father; her mother and she are German)—in protest at the treatment of Sahra. The party was rapidly falling part.

Some opponents of the present leadership want a quick break and a new party, not only because of current quarrels but because they party’s long drift towards seeking social improvements within the present monopoly-based social system instead of aiming toward replacing it with a non-profit society.

Others may agree, but oppose a quick break. They see even the current Linke, despite all its compromises, as the only visible opposition currently to war, an arms race and increasingly worsening conditions for working people. We must remain in the party and fight to change it as long as possible.

A third opinion was: “Let us wait for the party congress in November. If instead of demanding peace and negotiations, a policy wins out of even veiled support of NATO and sending armaments ‘until victory’ to Zelensky—or more likely until catastrophe—then, regardless of consequences, we must leave and start anew.”

Now another actor has taken the stage, calling itself the “Was-Tun-Netzwerk”—a “coordination circle” basing its name on a key booklet by Lenin called “What Is to Be Done.” It listed leftist groups in nine German states as sponsors and made the following statement, criticizing the Linke leadership:

There is no effective strategy to win voters for left-wing politics outside a few major cities in the east and west of the country. The Board shies away from coming to terms with the election defeats and its own political responsibility. Instead, Wagenknecht is blamed for everything: election defeats, the bad mood in the party, the inability to convince people inside and outside the party of left-wing politics.

By effectively adopting the government’s stance on the escalation of the war and the preparation of the USA for war against China, as well as by its involvement in the split in the peace protests, the Executive Board indirectly supports NATO’s highly dangerous war policy. The lack of a convincing left-wing opposition to the war is driving more and more people into the arms of the AfD, which wants to present itself as a new peace party.

The Executive Committee leads the party into the political sidelines. As a political leader, it has completely failed and must be replaced as soon as possible.

We demand that the slogan ‘Heating, Bread and Peace’ put the elementary interests of the population at the center of left-wing politics.


Is this a serious, organized attempt to change the leadership—or perhaps start up a new split-off party? The next scenes in this melodrama will be on September 1st, the anniversary of the first shots in World War Two, and on October 3rd, the anniversary of German unification, when two peace demonstrations are planned. Talks are beginning on a possible debate even sooner, electronically open to the public. Will the Linke leadership join in or again support boycotts—or weak, Purist substitutes? What about the new group?

History pages can be as blurred as crystal balls. But it is clear that far more is at stake here than meets the eye—or the media. The Left in most of Europe, fully demoralized after the downfall of the USSR, the GDR and the others, has yet to recover; it is mostly fragmented and weak. But in Germany, which became Europe’s strongest “free market” pillar, the Linke party, though unsteady, often offered a beacon of hope and support, a link with Eastern European groups and a certain counterbalance to the growing far right and fascist threat in Italy, Greece, even France, Netherlands, Scandinavia, Finland—but especially in Germany itself. Can it relight that little torch—or will it be doused, leaving an even shadier, troubled lane in the fight against repression, militarism and expansion all too reminiscent of a bitter past.

https://mronline.org/2023/08/16/schism- ... t-16-2023/

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Zelensky Holds Court with Ukraine’s Most Notorious Neo-Nazi
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on AUGUST 16, 2023
Alexander Rubenstein

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Western media has dismissed evidence of neo-Nazi influence in Ukraine by citing President Zelensky’s Jewish heritage. But new footage published by Zelensky shows the leader openly collaborating with a fasci

Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky has uploaded a video to his Telegram channel showing him holding court with one of the most notorious neo-Nazis in modern Ukrainian history: Azov Battalion founder Andriy Biletsky.

On August 14, just over an hour after Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced another $200 million in military aid to Kiev, Ukrainian President Vlodomyr Zelensky published the video depicting what he called an “open conversation” with Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade.

“I am grateful to everyone who defends our country and people, who brings our victory closer,” Zelensky wrote, following his encounter with the unit on the outskirts of Bakhmut.

While casual Western observers might not have realized it, the brigade Zelensky was addressing is actually the newest iteration of Ukraine’s neo-Nazi Azov Battalion.

“The 3rd separate assault brigade, excellent fighters,” Zelensky wrote days after the consultation, in a Twitter post which also alluded to a separate meeting with the Aidar Battalion, another neo-fascist outfit that has been accused of war crimes by Amnesty International. “They have stopped the enemy from advancing towards Kostiantynivka and pushed the occupiers back up to 8 kilometers.”

But the group’s origins are no secret. Describing their most recent rebrand in a YouTube video released in January, the unit explained: “Today we officially announce that the SSO AZOV is expanding to a brigade. From now on, we are the 3rd separate assault brigade of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”

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Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade fighters perform a fireside fascist salute in a video announcing their re-formation.

Like its predecessor, the unit is led by Andriy Biletsky, who founded the Azov Battalion and has long served as a figurehead for the closely-aligned National Corps political movement.

But in spite of Biletsky’s rich Nazi pedigree, the video Zelensky published shows him sharing a moment of bonhomie with a white nationalist militant who has described Jews as “our enemy,” or as the “real masters” of the oligarchs and craven politicians that have corrupted Ukraine.

“How could I be a Nazi?” Zelensky asked on the eve of Russia’s intervention, pointing to his Jewish heritage. “How could a people who lost eight million lives fighting Nazis could support Nazism?”

Perhaps the question needs to be asked again of the Ukrainian president following the tribute he paid to his country’s top neo-Nazi ideologue.

Zelensky publishes a video of his visit to Biletsky, the leader of Azov neo-Nazis who said that the Ukrainian nation’s mission is to “lead the white races of the world in a final crusade…against Semite-led Untermenschen” and thanks them for defending 🇺🇦https://t.co/xQXqqKcxsg pic.twitter.com/E53ETomQab

— Voxkomm (@Voxkomm) August 14, 2023


Ukraine’s Jewish leader meets “The White Leader”

Since Russia’s military operations in Ukraine kicked off in 2022, Biletsky had taken pains to distance himself from his fascist past. He now claims that an infamous promise he made to rid the world of “Semite-led untermenschen” was actually fabricated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

But Biletsky’s most notorious screed against Jews was not an isolated outburst. Indeed, his record of Nazi-inspired tirades is extensive, and has been a matter of public record for decades.

Biletsky’s college thesis was a defense of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, a group of paramilitary Nazi collaborators founded by Stepan Bandera’s Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists that carried out ethnic cleansings of more than 100,000 Jews and Poles. After leaving university, Biletsky quickly embedded with multiple fascist outfits, including the “Stepan Bandera All-Ukrainian Organization ‘Tryzub’” and the Social-National Party — not to be confused with the National Socialist Party of 1940’s Germany.

Biletsky left the Social-National Party in protest in 2004 as the group began to rebrand and move away from overt neo-Nazi symbolism. Two years later, he led an organization called Patriots of Ukraine, which has been linked to numerous mob assaults. One Patriot of Ukraine member has claimed the group was behind the seizure and torching of the headquarters of a political party during the US-backed “Maidan” coup in 2014.

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Center: Azov founder Andriy Biletsky.

According to Ukraine’s Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group, Patriots of Ukraine “espoused xenophobic and neo-Nazi ideas, and was engaged in violent attacks against migrants, foreign students in Kharkiv and those opposing its views.” What’s more, “Biletsky and some other members were suspected of violent seizures of newspaper kiosks and similar criminal activities.”

“For three years running, the organization has gained notoriety for its torch processions around student campuses in Kharkiv, Kyiv and Chernivtsi which fill foreign students studying in Ukraine with terror,” the human rights group noted in 2008.

During a Patriots of Ukraine general meeting in 2009, Biletsky raved: “How can we describe our enemy? The authorities and the oligarchs. Do they have anything in common? Yes, they have one thing in common: they are Jews, or behind them are their real masters — Jews.”

In 2011, Biletsky was arrested for allegedly ordering Patriot of Ukraine members to kill a fellow ultranationalist inside the group’s office following a dispute, and spent the following years in pre-trial detention. Thanks to a resolution passed by the Ukrainian parliament after the Western-backed overthrow of President Viktor Yanukovych, he would ultimately be released in 2014. But during his three years in custody, Biletsky managed to have a number of his fascist screeds published in a collection titled “The Word of the White Leader.”

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The cover of an introduction essay by an “organizational foreman” on Biletsky’s leadership in “The Word of the White Leader”

One essay in the collection, dated to 2007, rails against Jews and Black migrants, casually dropping the n- word in the process. “Ukraine is the light of Europe! Our Nation still has enough strength to withstand this influx of foreigners, to cleanse our land and light the fire of purification throughout Europe!” the essay concludes.

In another essay outlining the ideology of “Social-Nationalism,” Biletsky praised National Socialism as a “great idea,” but criticized the Nazis as having been insufficiently eugenicist in their family welfare programs. He complained they supported parents with multiple children “without considering the biological quality of each individual family.”

“The result,” he continued, was “a significant increase in the birth rate, [but] a significant decrease in the percentage of the Nordic type in the population.” Because “these social benefits are aimed at the masses, they encouraged the worst human material to give birth to a child in the first place,” the self-proclaimed “White Leader” lamented.

A subsequent Biletsky manifesto entitled “Language and Race – Primary Issues” expanded on the “social-nationalist” concept: “Ukrainian social-nationalism considers the Ukrainian Nation to be a blood-racial community… Race is everything for nation-building – Race is the basis on which the superstructure grows in the form of national culture, which again comes from the racial nature of the people, and not from language, religion, economy, etc.”

As for the Russian-speaking population of Eastern Ukraine, Biletsky wrote, “The issue of total Ukrainization in the future social nationalist state will be resolved within 3-6 months with the help of a tough and balanced state policy.”

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Zelensky meets with Biletsky in a video posted by the president on August 14, 2023
Following his release from prison, Biletsky got his chance to carry out a campaign of violence against the ethnic Russians of eastern Ukraine. As war broke out in the country, with the Russian majority of the east seeking self-determination in the face of a nationalist post-coup government viewed as Western puppets, Biletsky dissolved the Patriot of Ukraine and formed the Azov Battalion to wage a war against the separatists. Around this time, he was also elected to the Ukrainian parliament, remaining in office until 2019.

The new paramilitary outfit set up shop in Mariupol, using the port city as a staging ground for attacks on the Donbas, and violently crushing forms of feminist and liberal political expression on the city’s streets.

Meanwhile, the National Corps, a political party founded by Biletsky in 2016, has been described as a “nationalist hate group” even by the US State Department. The party has repeatedly incited violence against the Kiev Pride march, in 2018 calling on “all concerned citizens of Ukraine” to prevent the march from being held. In 2019, one National Corps leader had a more direct message: “Stay home, and don’t show up in public. Ever. That will make our life easier and keep you safe ;).”

In 2019, it seemed almost as though Biletsky’s influence was waning. An electoral coalition he formed with several other prominent neo-Nazis in Ukraine failed to gain enough votes to pass the threshold to gain any seats in parliament. Meanwhile, Vlodomyr Zelensky won the presidential election on a platform of making peace with Russia.

How Ukraine’s Jewish president Volodymyr Zelensky made peace with neo-Nazi paramilitaries now on the front lines of war with Russia

By @RealAlexRubi and @MaxBlumenthal https://t.co/bJuHrz2e0u

— The Grayzone (@TheGrayzoneNews) March 4, 2022


But Biletsky still held on to a trump card as a nationally-recognized strongman. When a Ukrainian news channel announced a two-hour live studio “TV bridge” between Ukrainian and Russian civilians aimed at fostering a stronger mutual understanding, Biletsky seized the moment to issue a thinly-veiled threat against Zelensky if he did not have the event canceled in a day’s time. If Zelensky did not intervene, “the answer to the Kremlin’s ‘little green men’ will begin to be given by ‘little black men,’” Biletsky said, referring to the black garb of fascist elements like Azov.

Biletsky called on Zelensky to be “The leader of a state at war,” and, “Not a clown, not an artist from oligarchic corporations, but the President.”

Zelensky responded within the timeframe of the ultimatum by denouncing the dialogue and seemingly offering a jab back at Biletsky, arguing that Ukrainians were being “manipulated by politicians who really want to get into parliament.”

A few months later, the pair butted heads again after Zelensky ordered Ukrainian troops, including Azov fighters, to withdraw from a frontline town in the Donbas in an apparent effort to honor the terms of the Minsk Accords. Biletsky fired back with threats to dispatch thousands more troops in open defiance of the president’s orders.

Zelensky’s showdown with fighters refusing his orders culminated with the head of state nearly breaking down on camera and pleading to the militants: “I’m the president of this country. I’m 41 years old. I’m not a loser. I came to you and told you: remove the weapons.”



Just a few short years later, in the midst of a hot war with Russia, Ukraine’s Jewish president and Ukraine’s most famous living antisemite seem to have put aside their differences. As Shakespeare put it, “misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows.”

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/08/ ... -neo-nazi/

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RUSSIA IN AND UKRAINE OUT OF THE G20 GUEST LIST
Aug 16, 2023 , 11:33 a.m.

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Ukraine is not a member of the G20, while Russia is part of the grouping and, therefore, is invited to the annual meeting (Photo: AP Photo)

India's External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar confirmed that his country does not plan to invite Ukraine to the Group of 20 Most Industrialized and Developing Countries (G20) summit to be held in September.

The minister explained that the annual meeting of the G20 is for the members and organizations that have been invited, a list that was defined as soon as they assumed the pro tempore presidency of the conglomerate in December.

It is at the discretion of the current presidency whether or not a country is invited. In this case India decided not to. Last year Vladimir Zelensky was invited to participate in the G20 summit held in Bali, Indonesia.

Ukraine is not a member of that body, while Russia is part of the grouping and, therefore, is invited to the annual meeting. In addition to energy and trade alliances, India has maintained a diplomatic stance and calls for dialogue regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine.

India continues to deepen trade with Russia in energy and trade matters, they have been allies since the Cold War and their relationship has survived pressure from the United States and Europe to establish a position on the war. Since the conflict began in Ukraine, a bilateral trade with Moscow of 45 billion dollars has been registered between April 2022 and 2023. The Asian country also depends on the Slav for about 60% of its defense equipment.

https://misionverdad.com/rusia-dentro-y ... dos-al-g20

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:36 am

land without peace
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 08/18/2023

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On Wednesday Stian Jenssen, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's chief of staff, was forced to rectify after the commotion caused by his statements hours before in a Norwegian media. In them, Jenssen opened the possibility of a NATO agreement for territory, according to which Ukraine would gain access to NATO immediately, although not with its 1991 borders as it demands, but by ceding the lost territories to Russia. Although there is no doubt in his statements that this is the personal opinion of a person who is not even in the decision-making chain, the proposal has provoked the ire of Ukrainian representatives. Regardless of whether Russia would accept this proposal - the presence of NATO in a country as important as Ukraine is a red line that Moscow could only accept militarily and politically defeated - the Ukrainian government has not been slow to launch a campaign to deny that possibility.

Yesterday, Dmitro Kuleba insisted on Ukraine's objectives: the recovery of the internationally recognized borders, that is, including the Crimean peninsula. The recovery of the territories is the absolute priority for Kiev, which, aware that its advances on the front are not as expected, reconfigures its message to demand more from its partners, something that representatives such as Mikhailo Podolyak do daily in their messages published on social networks and reproduced as news in much of the Western press. Ukraine demands ATACMS and Taurus cruise missiles to achieve its seemingly natural right to reclaim its territories. It does so by resigning itself to admitting that it will not have the precious American F-16s in autumn or winter, a logical conclusion considering that, Despite Oleksiy Reznikov's continuous announcements of the beginning of the instruction of Ukrainian pilots in its management, this has not yet begun. What's more, yesterday it was announced again that the start is approaching. However, judging by what was published inThe New York Times , that lack should not demoralize Ukraine, since according to a number of experts it has consulted, Ukraine can defeat Russia without them. One of those experts consulted is Philip Breedlove, whose correspondence in recent years has made his intention to seek a war on the eastern front more than clear and for a long time he has acted as a lobbyist in search of specific interests rather than as a military observer. .

In any case, the opinion is spreading that the current offensive will not be the final one, as Mikhailo Podolyak, Josep Borrell or Antony Blinken seemed to expect, and according to The Wall Street Journal , work is already underway on next year's campaign. Both for the countries of Eastern Europe, which are gaining presence by shifting the Paris-Berlin axis of power towards one centered on Warsaw, and for the United States, Ukraine continues to be a strategic tool to achieve their objectives, among which the subordination of the EU to NATO seems the main one. Hence, despite the disappointment that the current offensive is causing and the voices that are beginning to doubt its success, the discourse continues to be that of military and financial assistance to Kiev until final victory.

The definition of victory has been one of the great questions of the war. During the first months of the Russo-Ukrainian war, when the first offensives were planned in Kharkiv and Kherson, extremes of the front that, due to their geographical position, were more vulnerable for Russia, the official Ukrainian and Western discourse pointed to a return to the situation prior to 24 February 2022, that is, the recovery of the southern territories and the maintenance of the Donbass front according to the borders of the Minsk agreements. The resignation of Ukraine and its partners, whose interests were perfectly aligned,

For this, Ukraine said that it only needed the right material, thus beginning a long process that is still ongoing in which Kiev demands more and heavier weapons and adds demands to its definition of victory. Ukraine does not hide since its objective is to destroy Russia in search of a regime change that, depending on the day, will be produced by the incipient civil war that only Budanov, Podolyak and their staunch supporters see, or by the military defeat in Ukraine.

With the recovery of the 1991 borders and the regime change in Russia defining victory, it was to be expected that the anger of the Ukrainian representatives would not be delayed upon hearing the opinion of Jens Stoltenberg's chief of staff, who even in his rectification has wanted to leave open the possibility of the carrot and the stick: offer kyiv NATO entry as a smaller country, without its lost territories. "I'm not saying it should be like this, but it could be a solution," he said yesterday. The reality is that Ukraine is facing increasing difficulty in maintaining its victory rhetoric, not only because it continues to add targets, but because its advances on the front are not as expected by those who are financing the war. The capture of the destroyed Urozhainoe, a town of a thousand inhabitants according to the last census, has not even impressed the propagandists and more and more voices see a complete Russian defeat as unfeasible. Yesterday, the co-chairman of the US Congressional Ukrainian Caucus, a staunch supporter of military assistance to Ukraine, expressed disappointment with the offensive. "I'll be honest: it has failed", he stated in an excessively blunt manner, at least judging by the opinion of Antony Blinken, who a few days ago pinned his hopes on the introduction of foreign-trained brigades. As stated this week Forbes, those reserves have already come into play, a risky bet for Ukraine, since if Russia manages to defeat those troops and hold the front, Kiev's troops could be left exhausted and exposed in the same way they were last year. to the Russians'

The absence of major victories at the front and the growing doubts of his partners about his ability to defeat Russia, which seem to have reached even as far as Jens Stoltenberg's circle, is not a reason for a change of course. "Ukraine will need more weapons from its Western allies until it manages to defeat the Russian forces and expel them from its territory," Dmitro Kuleba said yesterday, completely oblivious to any contrary argument. Furthermore, Kuleba has been openly hostile to any peace proposal that went beyond Zelensky's peace plan - the demand for Russia's unilateral capitulation - and has proposed to use "all means within the limits of international law." and criminal legislation to silence the resonance of those voices”.

In a much less diplomatic way, Mikhailo Podolyak began doing this work a long time ago by qualifying anyone who dared to make a peace proposal as an accomplice to Russian criminals . Yesterday it was Nikolas Sarkozy's turn. The former French president distanced himself from the official discourse, questioning the victory of Ukraine, acknowledging the Russian character of Crimea and even questioning that Ukraine should be a member, not only of NATO, but even of the European Union, a list of grievances that is too long. so as not to get an immediate response. Grotesquely twisting the mediation of the then head of state of France to achieve the ceasefire between Russia and Georgia during the Olympic war, the adviser to the Office of the President wrote that "in 2023, it is inadmissible to repeat the experience of Sarkozy , who deliberately participated in the criminal conspiracy for the Russian capture of Ukrainian territories and the consequent organization of large-scale genocide and war."

In his geopolitical analysis , Podolyak adds that "it was this encouragement by Western leaders to Putin's criminal plans to seize foreign lands in 2008 and especially in 2014 that contributed to the start of large-scale aggression in Europe and murder." mass of Ukrainians”. And accusing Sarkozy of "direct complicity in crimes of many years", he added an important detail that has gone unnoticed. Podolyak rejects the land for peace formula , a coherent position for the country that rejected the land and peace formula to recover the territories of Donbass under certain conditions, and insisted that "there are no new Russian territories, nor Russian rights to any referendum, nor linguistic or cultural peculiarities”. Ukraine, which has been working for nine years to eliminate the Russian language and the culture common to the two countries in favor of the Ukrainian language and a frankly oppressive vision of what Ukraine is and what its language, culture and politics are, not only aspires to recover lost territories in the Crimea and the Donbass, but hopes to do so precisely in order to impose that vision on the population. In order to be able to inflict such punishment on a population that has chosen the opposite option, Ukraine is ready to require its partners to finance its war and its state indefinitely and will continue to brand anyone who dares to deviate from that path of war as a criminal. peacebuilt from the aggression against those who in 2014 rejected the irregular change of government and the authoritarian political course of post-Maidan Ukraine.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/08/18/terri ... more-27954

Google Translator

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Chronicle of the special military operation for August 17, 2023
August 17, 2023
Rybar

Russian troops hit a Ukrainian railway echelon with ammunition at the Mezhevaya station in the Dnipropetrovsk region with an accurate missile strike : a large fire broke out at the facility.

In the Starobelsky direction, units of the RF Armed Forces expanded their zone of control southwest of Olshany and surrounded Sinkovka in a semicircle. At the moment, the enemy holds only the southwestern outskirts of the settlement.

In the Soledar direction , the Armed Forces of Ukraine attempted to attack in the direction of Zaliznyansky - Russian servicemen successfully suppressed it with artillery fire. The difficult situation remains near Kleshcheevka , despite the general decrease in the intensity of fighting in the area.

In the Vremievsky sector , Russian troops continue to repel enemy attempts to break through the defenses in the areas of Cherished Zhelaniya and Priyutnoye . And near Orekhovo, units of the RF Armed Forces are heroically holding back the onslaught of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the Rabotino-Verbovoye line .

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About the container ship Joseph Shulte and possible consequences

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Throughout the day, everyone's attention was riveted on the Joseph Shulte container ship, which left Odessa yesterday . The final destination is the Turkish port of Ambarli in the Sea of ​​Marmara. At the time of the passage of the vessel along the Odessa region, it was accompanied by two boats of the Ukrainian Navy from Odessa, and then from Vilkovo. In the air at that time, three Ukrainian Bayraktar UAVs worked in shifts.

Also, to ensure the protection of the airspace over the Odessa region, there were three MiG-29 fighters and one Su-27. And over Romania, the American R-8A anti-submarine aircraft conducted reconnaissance, which the day before flew to the Constanta airbase (after working out the tasks, it flew back to Sigonella ). By 19:00 Moscow time, the container ship stopped in the waiting area southeast of Vilkovo , where it stood for about 10-11 hours. And early in the morning of August 17, Joseph Shulte was on the move again. Now the ship is sailing along the Bulgarian territorial waters, as the crew of the Sukru Okan did earlier .

Judging by the nature of the parking and movement now, the Ukrainian authorities were waiting for the most optimal moment for a breakthrough to the Bosphorus , bypassing the Vasily Bykov patrol ship . Probably yesterday, Russian sailors were somewhere nearby, which interfered with the movement. Apparently there is no threat now. It is quite possible that the "Bulls" are accompanied by some regular tanker that came from the Mediterranean Sea, as it was before , so the zone was left unattended. However, it is really difficult to say whether this is true or not.

But what is important here is how consistently the collective West uses the modest combat capabilities of the Black Sea Fleet and probes the ground for organizing a corridor without Russia's participation - first an Israeli ship, then Sukru Okan. If Joseph reaches Ambarli , then this could set a precedent for other countries. And if a container ship is detained, it will be possible to accuse the Russian Federation of obstructing "peaceful" shipping.

Turkey predictably stated that they were ready to provide guarantees to Ukrainian ships following from the Black Sea through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles . Against the backdrop of the ongoing story with Joseph Shulte, such statements look extremely mocking. And it is clear that the role of Russia in this process is reduced to an insignificant minimum.

At the same time, it is obvious that the Turks do not need any grain deal. As well as the rest of the world. Whether Russia participates in it or not, the Black Sea Express will continue to work for the benefit of Ukraine. And the upcoming negotiations between Erdogan and Putin on the fate of the grain deal in this context look divorced from reality.

Strike of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the railway station in Mezheva

The Russian Ministry of Defense published footage of the destruction of a railway echelon with ammunition at the Mezhevaya station in the Dnepropetrovsk region . Upon arrival, a fire starts in one of the carriages, followed by a spectacular explosion and secondary detonations. Judging by the data of the NASA thermal anomaly map and the statements of local officials from the military administration, a large fire in the vicinity of the settlement was registered on August 16 around noon.

It is noteworthy that the objective control of fire damage was carried out by a Russian drone, although Mezhevaya is already almost 70 km from the front line. This again confirms the fundamental possibility of Russian drones to fly deep into Ukrainian territories and conduct reconnaissance there.

The situation on the front line and the fighting

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In the Starobelsky direction near Kupyansk, servicemen of the 6th Combined Arms Army of the RF Armed Forces successfully continue their offensive against Ukrainian positions at the Sinkovka-Olshana line . As a result of a fierce assault, the RF Armed Forces occupied two strongholds southwest of Olshany, and also improved the tactical position near Sinkovka, surrounding the village in a semicircle. During the night, the RF Armed Forces also carried out several strikes at places of concentration of personnel and equipment in Petropavlovka and its environs.

At the moment, the Ukrainian combined detachments of the 14th ombr and 95th odshbr hold the southern outskirts of the village, and the rest is in the gray zone. Moreover, none of the parties has confident control over the positions in Sinkovka. The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area exceeded several hundred people. The Ukrainian command has already recognized the plight of the group at Kupyansk, but is in no hurry to transfer reserves from other directions. So far, the enemy's tactic is to fill up the advanced mobilized in the hope of a successful counterattack.

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In general, in the Soledar direction , after weeks of assaults on Russian lines on the flanks of the grouping in Bakhmut, the situation on the front sector became somewhat calmer. Yesterday, assault groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on armored vehicles attacked the positions of the RF Armed Forces near Zaliznyansky from Minkovka . However, the servicemen of the 1st Airborne Brigade "Wolves" standing there, with the support of other units, cut off the vehicles from the infantry with fire and destroyed some of them, after which they worked on the enemy's manpower.

At the same time, Ukrainian formations continue to build up forces east of Konstantinovka to resume the assault on strongholds on the Kleshcheevka - Andreevka - Kurdyumovka line . Also, movements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Seversk were noticed for a possible strike in the direction of Yakovlevka . At the same time, information is being received about the formation of a new 39th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Georgievka . After coordination and understaffing, they plan to transfer it to Bakhmut . Russian UAV operators are actively working on the site, preventing the enemy from quietly rotating.


Positional clashes continue in the Donetsk direction in the areas of Avdeevka , Krasnogorovka and Maryinka . Russian units are supported by artillery and army aviation, which strike at enemy manpower and equipment. Ukrainian formations from time to time attempt counterattacks, trying to seize the initiative in this sector of the front. All of them are successfully suppressed by servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

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In the Vremievsky sector south of Urozhayne, Ukrainian marines resumed their attacks on the village of Cherished Zhelanie . Yesterday, several assault groups of 37 infantry regiments with a total number of 25 people tried to break through the defenses, but the attack was repulsed. Also, rifle battles were noted northeast of Priyutnoye near the forest belt, where the day before the Ukrainian command deployed consolidated detachments of 31 Ombr, 1 Obr and 35 Obrmp. Warrior Far East reports 13 destroyed members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

However, in the near future attacks will resume with renewed vigor. Four new assault groups of marines of the 37th brigade of the Ukrainian Navy are concentrated in the vicinity of Urozhayne. Also, the Azov formations arrived in Makarovka . Judging by the dispersal of forces in the landings in the vicinity of Urozhaynoye and Staromayorsky, but not in the villages themselves, the enemy may attempt an attack bypassing Cherished Desire immediately on Staromlynovka .

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In the Orekhovsky sector , both near Rabotino itself and on the nearby positions of the RF Armed Forces, attacks from Ukrainian formations continue. The main strike force is made up of paratroopers of the 82nd Airborne Brigade and 46th Marine Brigade. Initially, the Armed Forces of Ukraine considered 116, 117 and 118 ombr 10 AK to break through the first line of defense, but losses and failures forced adjustments. Detachments of the 82nd brigade, reinforced by the 46th and 118th brigades, tried to advance towards Rabotino, but the situation on the northeastern outskirts remains the same: this part of the village is located in the gray zone.

The enemy also unsuccessfully attacked strongholds of the RF Armed Forces between Rabotino and Verbov . But the attack was repulsed, and two assault companies of the 82nd odshbr in the amount of 116 people were sent for recovery. Reinforcements of the 116th brigade and 15th brigade of the National Guard, as well as the Bukovel electronic warfare complex, were transferred to Malaya Tokmachka to reinforce the group. Unfortunately, today a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter west of Novoprokopovka was hit by MANPADS . The pilot survived and was evacuated, but the navigator died .

In the Kherson direction , the tense situation continues along the entire coast of the Dnieper. Ukrainian formations do not stop trying to gain a foothold in the areas of the Cossack Camps and Antonovsky Bridge . Russian troops conduct aimed fire, not allowing the enemy to transfer forces to the left bank.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

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The enemy continues to shell the border areas of the Klimovsky district of the Bryansk region . The village of Zabrama was hit : a residential building and an outbuilding were damaged.

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The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to shell the border settlements of the Belgorod region throughout the day . Local residents reported strikes on Vyazovoe , Kolotilovka , and Repyakhovka in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, but there was no official information.

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Ukrainian formations continue to conduct massive shelling of the front-line and rear areas of the Donetsk People's Republic . During the day, the enemy fired 207 units of various munitions, including 28 cluster-type munitions, at residential buildings and infrastructure facilities in nine settlements in the region. In Donetsk , one employee of the mine im. A.A. Skochinsky, a school and several multi-apartment and private residential buildings were also damaged. In the Kuibyshev region , a woman received a shrapnel wound, two houses were damaged. In addition, one woman was injured in Yelenovka .

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Ukrainian formations continue to fire dozens of rounds of ammunition daily along the left bank of the Kherson region . Last night, the enemy launched massive strikes on civilian targets in at least seven settlements in the region. The village of Dnepryany was also under fire : residential buildings and a gas pipeline were damaged. According to preliminary information, one woman was injured.

Political events

On the extension of martial law and the dismissal of the heads of the TCC

Volodymyr Zelenskyy today signed a decree that legislated the president's decision at the National Security Council a week earlier. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine launched a series of propaganda videos in order to increase the influx of volunteers into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Later, Zelensky also signed a law extending martial law for another three months until November 15.

On the transfer of Czech Mi-24s to the balance of the Air Force

Today, Czech Defense Minister Yana Chernokhova announced that her country is preparing a batch of an unspecified number of Mi-24 helicopters for transfer to Ukraine. According to her, despite the fact that the helicopters have worked out their motor resources more than they should, they can still be useful to the Ukrainian side "where there is a need for any defense equipment now." At the same time, this transfer should not be considered a gift: in return, the Czech Republic has already received four more modern American UH-1Y Venom and AH-1Z Viper helicopters.

On the beating of a transgender soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Lviv

An interesting episode took place in Lviv , where a resident beat up a transgender member of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but later apologized to the victim. He stated that he would not have beaten a representative of the LGBT community, knowing that he had a military ID, and also proudly mentioned his grandfather from the SS Galicia division. But the episode, in fact, is very revealing. From time to time, one can hear from the media and television talking heads that Ukrainian far-right organizations will allegedly oppose the LGBT propaganda implanted from the West and sooner or later raise a rebellion against the Kyiv authorities.

However, this video is clear evidence that such expectations are completely groundless. Supporters of cheap parodies of the Third Reich are faced with the fact: love the rainbow flags or disappear . What choice the followers of the "Right Sector" and similar structures make is very obvious. The West is ready to turn a blind eye to any even the most odious manifestations of Nazi ideology, but only as long as they do not touch the sacred cow of world globalism. And the same “Azovites” have long been tightly tied to the LGBT movement, which they publicly despise.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

Well, I still have my doubts about Uke trans soldiers and suspect it to be distasteful and unnecessary propaganda. There's plenty other ways to beat up on the Ukes for behavior much more objectionable, like murder and pillage. And while personally of the opinion that the US gov/corporate 'enlightenment' push is meant to divide the populace we should not have innocents, however alienated(if that's the case), bear the brunt of reaction. Just because there's a video doesn't mean it's true, as becomes more apparent every day. People need to do less 'watching' and more reading and thinking.

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Why This Ship Was Allowed To Leave Ukraine

The Ukrainian presidential office continues it accumulation of media victories which, unfortunately for Ukraine, do not reflect the facts on the ground.

A signature example comes in the form of widespread reports about a ship that a day ago left the port of Odessa:

Cargo Ship Travels From Port of Odesa in Test of Ukraine’s New Black Sea Corridor - NY Times
Kyiv is aiming to resume traffic to its seaports despite Russia’s threats to ships moving to and from Ukraine.

A civilian cargo ship that has been stuck in Odesa since the start of the war set off early Wednesday morning, becoming the first to venture out of the port into the turbulent waters of the Black Sea since Moscow threatened all ships moving to and from Ukraine.
The move is part of Ukrainian efforts to restore seaport traffic despite a de facto Russian blockade. Kyiv’s efforts to resume exports of grain and other goods raise the stakes for Ukraine’s allies, as an attack or other episode could draw other nations whose ships travel the waters into the conflict.

Establishing a safe path for the small number of internationally flagged ships stranded in Ukrainian ports for 18 months would mark a milestone, but Ukraine also hopes it will be a demonstration that Russia does not dominate the sea and that shipping to Ukrainian seaports can be resumed.

“The fact that the first ship left the port is a little victory for Ukraine,” said Andriy Klymenko, the director of the Institute for Strategic Black Sea Studies, a Ukrainian research organization. “Let the first one be a lucky one.”

The nearly 1,000-foot-long container ship Joseph Schulte, which flies under the flag of Hong Kong and has been stranded in Odesa since arriving there the day before Russia launched its full-scale invasion some 18 months ago, set a course to Istanbul using a corridor in Ukrainian territorial waters established by the Ukrainian ministry of infrastructure for civilian vessels.

In establishing the corridor, the Ukrainian navy said that it could assure ships safe passage through a maze of maritime mines they have installed to protect the Ukrainian coast. But it could offer no assurances of protection from Russian mines and warships.

Once they leave Ukrainian waters, ships would be able to chart a course to Turkey within the national waters of Romania and Bulgaria, which are members of NATO and under the alliance’s protection.

Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement, a company with headquarters in Germany that owns the ship in partnership with a Chinese bank, said in a statement that all the crew was safe as it departed Ukraine with 2,000 containers full of goods on board. It is not clear exactly what the ship is carrying, but it was not designed to carry grain.


I happen to know a member of the Schulte family, which owns the management company, for a long time. I was told that the ships move out of Odessa was not the blockade run that Ukraine claims it was.

Joseph Schulte, IMO 9605243, under its former name
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The ship management company put out a statement that offered its thanks in an unusual diplomatic language:

Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement (BSM) is pleased to confirm that its managed container vessel JOSEPH SCHULTE (IMO: 9605243) departed the port of Odessa, Ukraine and is now on its voyage to Istanbul, Türkiye. All crew are safe on board and well.
JOSEPH SCHULTE is jointly owned by a Chinese Bank and Bernhard Schulte, and she utilizes the established corridor (IMO circular 4748) and via territorial waters of Ukraine, Romania, and Türkiye to allow for a safe passage of southbound vessels.

BSM is grateful to the various stakeholders on the ground, the vessel's crew, the IMO, the Hong Kong flag administration and the people whose great support has made the vessel's safe sailing possible.

JOSEPH SCHULTE had been moored in the port of Odesa since her arrival on 23 February 2022.


After the ship had been stopped in Odessa the crew had largely left and was repatriated. As far as I know the ship had to be taken out of its charter and renamed. To get the ship ready to leave a new crew had to be organized and put on board.

It was also necessary to get the Russian governments agreement for the ship to leave. As the Russian news outlet Topnews reports (machine translation):

Second, ship inspection [by] the Russian Armed Forces are possible, but the key threat is the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, which in this case is unlikely.
Recall that two days ago, the Russian side stopped the ship Sukru Okan, which was going to Odessa, for inspection. But Joseph Schulte follows from the port. On the contrary, analysts are sure that his departure plays into the hands of the Russian Armed Forces, as it reduces the chance of Ukrainian attacks from behind someone else's back.

In addition, the release of the vessel was requested by the co-owner from China, the request came from the Hong Kong Foreign Ministry, which reduces the degree of suspicion. In general, according to experts, after the cancellation of the grain deal, the situation in the Black Sea area remains stable.


Indeed. In yesterday's morning report Dima, of the Military Summary Channel, reported on the foreign ministry request and even showed a copy of it (@2:00 min):

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It is on official foreign ministry paper with the written request in Russian language. Russia will not reject such a request from its major ally. It has obviously agreed to let the ship leave Odessa. The ship does not carry any grain but only its regular load of containers.

This is a not a victory for Ukraine. It does not confirm the validity of its so-called corridors.

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Source: IMO Circular Letter No. 4748

The map may help to avoid the anchor mines the Ukrainian navy has dropped into the sea but it will not hinder Russian forces from following their orders. Any ship that wants to go to Odessa or any other Ukrainian port or leave from them will have to at least be checked by Russian forces and may well be told by them to turn around.

The New York Times report, and all similar ones in the western press that I have read, is not correct as it leaves out the most important facts and replaces them with Ukrainian propaganda.

Bernhard Schulte Management is well known in its trade. It will let other ship managing companies know what the real state of shipping access to Ukraine is.

Posted by b on August 17, 2023 at 13:20 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/08/w ... .html#more

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Ukrainian crimes against humanity
August 17, 17:57

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2 recent studies by Maxim Grigoriev on Nazi crimes in Ukraine.
Both works are free to download.

Atrocities of modern Bandera - Ukrainian neo-Nazis
https://vk.com/doc4235223_659399095

Ukrainian crimes against humanity 2014-2023
https://vk.com/s/v1/doc/BQWEhecpsIe3ovv ... 85w2DDR7FI

victims of crimes committed, details and texture.
More such works should be produced and popularized more widely.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8572924.html

Drone attack on Moscow. 08/18/2023

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August 18, 6:19

In the area of ​​​​Krasnopresnenskaya embankment, an enemy drone fell at night (apparently they tried to hit one of the towers of Moscow City again).
There were no casualties or serious damage (a non-residential building in the area of ​​Krasnopresnenskaya embankment was damaged).

Earlier, in the Black Sea, Black Sea Fleet ships sank another Ukrainian naval drone.

In general, the enemy continues the tactics of harassing attacks, hoping to find a vulnerability somewhere in the interests of obtaining a media effect.

The best response to such attacks would be to continue the campaign to systematically destroy Ukrainian port and industrial infrastructure.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8573370.html

Google Translator

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HOW MUCH HAS THE US SENT IN MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE?
17 Aug 2023 , 12:38 pm .

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A US soldier supervises an arms shipment to Ukraine (Photo: AP Photo)

The United States will send Ukraine more munitions, air defenses and anti-mine clearance equipment after an alleged accounting error that made new funds available. It is about 200 million dollars destined to continue fueling the war.

Since the conflict began, the Joe Biden administration has provided $43 billion in military assistance to kyiv, and asked Congress last week to approve another $13 billion.

US legislators from both parties continue to support military assistance to the Slavic country, which contrasts with the opinion of citizens, who in recent polls have shown greater rejection.

The Pentagon revealed in June that it had another $6.2 billion to distribute in Ukraine, more than it previously thought after recalculating the prices of some weapons. Specifically, ammunition will be shipped for Patriot air defense systems, 12 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades, as well as others for high-mobility artillery rocket systems.

"Until [Russia withdraws its troops] does, the United States and our allies and partners will remain united with Ukraine for as long as necessary," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement announcing the latest aid. .

https://misionverdad.com/cuanto-ha-envi ... ar-ucrania

Google Translator

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Better Late Than Never? Spain’s El País Sounds Alarm Over Consequences of Ukraine “Proxy War” for EU’s Future
Posted on August 18, 2023 by Nick Corbishley

After enthusiastically selling the war since its inception, the mainstream media in Europe may be beginning to change its tune.

As the undeniable failure of Ukraine’s much-anticipated counter offensive begins to sink in on the old continent, another crack in the media narrative around the conflict has appeared — and what’s more in one of Europe’s newspapers of record, Spain’s El País. On Monday, the newspaper published an op-ed (behind paywall) by José Luis Cebrián titled “Defending Ukraine to the Death… of Ukrainians.” The article raises serious concerns about the real objectives of the war, the way it is being waged and its impact on the European Union, much of which is encapsulated in the article’s sub-heading:

“The war is a proxy war between NATO and Russia that has roots that predate the invasion whose immediate consequence has been the subordination of the EU project to the objectives of the [NATO] military alliance.”

This one sentence makes three points that are hardly news to NC readers but may be to many loyal El País readers: first, what is happening in Ukraine is not a David versus Goliath struggle between an aggressive superpower and a small but plucky neighbour, as newspapers like El País have been claiming for the past year and a half, but rather a proxy war between the world’s two largest nuclear powers; second, its roots long predate Russia’s Special Military Operation of February 2022; and third, the EU project has essentially been subordinated to NATO’s military goals, which are essentially Washington’s military goals.

A Very Influential Man

Granted, the article is an opinion piece, meaning it does not reflect the newspaper’s official editorial line. But Cebrián is not your average contributing op-ed writer. He is the co-founder and honorary president of El País, as well as former CEO and chairman of Grupo Prisa, the Spanish media conglomerate that owns the newspaper. He is also vice president of the Asociación de Medios de Información, a Spanish media lobbying group. According to Wikipedia, “Cebrián has been considered by various international media as one of the ten most influential Spaniards in Spain and Latin America for 44 years (from 1976 to 2019).”

He is also, as Wikipedia notes, “the only Hispanic academic member of the Bilderberg Club and the only Spanish-speaking member with executive functions in that organisation.”

In other words, anything Cebrián writes in El País, the newspaper he helped create, holds weight. It also means that the message conveyed in this op-ed, which represents a stark departure from the prevailing media narrative of the last 18 months and is based on a speech Cebrián recently gave to the participants of a program organised by Madrid’s Complutense University and the Institute for Strategic Studies, comes from the very highest levels of Europe’s media establishment.

Now, a few choice excerpts (comments in brackets my own):

We are facing a transcendental issue for the future of Europe upon which the political class has avoided any debate in recent electoral campaigns, despite the implications for the security and development of our country.

In order to analyse the effects of the war, it is necessary to look at its causes (NC: what a smart idea!! If only El País and other influential media had done this 18 months ago!), both the deep-rooted and the more recent ones. I began (my speech) by evoking John L. O’Sullivan, an American journalist who in 1845 proclaimed the “manifest destiny” of the as yet inexistent US empire. Said destiny was to spread throughout the continent, “allotted by providence for the development of a great experiment in freedom and self-government.” This is how he justified the annexation of Texas, Oregon and California, before the United States seized more than 50% of the territory of Mexico and intervened in the Cuban and Philippine revolutions against the Spanish crown.


After describing the westward expansion of the fledgling United States and the early spasms of the US empire, Cebrián proceeds to plot the US’ passage through two world wars, for which, he says, Western Europe owes “the people and government of the United States” a “debt of gratitude.” But he also discusses the US’s many military misadventures, from Vietnam to Afghanistan, to Iraq, Libya and Sudan, and their heavy toll, including 500,000 deaths in Iraq alone.

Mackinter and Brzezinski

After that, Cebrián brings in Halford Mackinter’s World Island theory — the idea that “whoever rules the continental heartland (of Eurasia) controls the World Island, and whoever rules the World Island controls the world.” He then recounts how the former US National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski used that theory to push for NATO expansion right up to the borders of the newly formed Russian Federation. Most controversially, the plan included incorporating the former Soviet republics of Ukraine and Georgia into the military alliance (two glaring red lines for Russia’s political and military establishment):

[Brzezinski] recognised that Russian public opinion and broad segments of Ukrainian society considered the shared origin, and therefore destiny, of both countries inviolable. Against this backdrop, there was at least one verbal agreement between the United States and Moscow that guaranteed that Kiev would not join the Alliance, as an unwritten condition for prompt German reunification.* Brzezinski argued that the new European security framework should be based on a close alliance between France, Germany, Poland (his native country) and Ukraine. That would be the way to dominate the heart of Eurasia and by extension control the world. This is the path we are on…

In 2013, the White House sponsored the Euromaidan coup and popular revolution against the pro-Russian Ukrainian president. Moscow’s response was to invade Crimea in 2014. That same year Jens Stoltenberg was appointed Secretary General of NATO, who has pursued out an opportunistic policy of publicly arguing for cooperation with Russia while deploying forces in the countries of central Europe, despite concerns, flagged by Kissinger among others, that no government in the Kremlin would allow the installation of potentially offensive bases 300 kilometres from Moscow.


Russia, A Country in Decline

Russia, Cebrián then says, is a country “in decline,” with a shrinking population and gross domestic product, before adding that “it remains the world’s leading nuclear power.” This is a bizarre statement given that Russia’s autarkic economy has weathered 18 months of all-out war against it from both the US, the world’s [declining] economic superpower and the EU. It also just overtook Germany to become the fifth wealthiest economy in the world and the largest in Europe on PPP (purchasing power parity) terms.

This, I suppose, goes to show that even as Europe’s elite begins recrafting a new narrative around the Ukraine war — which is beginning to happen as that same elite finally realises that Ukraine has zero chance of recapturing its lost territory while the damage to Europe’s economic health continues to mount — they will continue to downplay Russia’s strengths. The fact that Russia’s largely autarkic economy has withstood all 11 rounds of EU sanctions against it far better than the EU’s own economy is by the by.

In fact, at no point in his article does Cebrián mention the Spanish word “economia,” which is curious for an article on the escalating costs of the Ukraine conflict. By contrast, he mentions the name “Kissinger” twice — perhaps not much of a surprise condsidering Henry Kissinger is one of the most senior members of the Bilderberg Club. He’s certainly the oldest:

As Kissinger himself says in his book on leadership, the war in Ukraine embodies the failure of previous attempts at dialogue by the main parties, which are not Kiev and Moscow, but the White House and the Kremlin.

So here we have the first admission, in the main body of the text, that the war in Ukraine is not a war between Ukraine and Russia but instead a proxy war between the White House and the Kremlin. Which brings us to the article’s conclusion:

The immediate consequence of this war has been the subordination of the European Union, a project of peace and cooperation through laws, to a military alliance. So that countries with deep democratic imbalances such as Hungary or Poland are accepted and even flattered by the West, just as the White House seems determined to whitewash even the tyrannical regime of Venezuela [NC: a not-so-subtle reminder of how much Spain’s political and business establishment despise the Bolivarian government in Caracas]. The prolongation of the war has had other effects, such as the creation of a triangle between formerly warring states, Iran, China and Russia, two of them nuclear powers. It has also strengthened the role of Turkey, the Alliance’s founding member, which can hardly be described as a democracy and which does not apply sanctions to the aggressor country.

This is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a proxy war between NATO and Russia. Neither of them can be absolute losers if we aspire to a lasting peace in Europe and want to prevent the conflict from spiralling into a third world war. But the voices in favour of a ceasefire do not seem to have much effect on the rulers of democratic Europe, ours included, ready as they are to defend Ukraine until the death of the last Ukrainian.


“Deconstructing Zelensky”

Cebrián’s article came just days after El Diaro, a left-leaning online news outlet published an interesting op-ed titled “Deconstructing Zelensky”. While I have not read much of El Diario‘s recent coverage of the Ukraine conflict, but looking back at the backlog of article headlines on the topic, this op-ed also appears to represent a departure of sorts.

The article, penned by José Enrique de Ayala, a retired brigadier general of the Spanish army who was second in command of the multinational division of central-south Iraq, which was supported by NATO, does a thorough job of deconstructing Zelensky. A few days before publishing the piece on Zelensky, El Diaro published a similar article by the same author on Putin, titled “Deconstructing Putin.” Though it gets some important things wrong, such as the idea, repeatedly debunked here, that Minsk 2 offered a possible solution to the conflict in the Donbass, it is reasonably measured given the subject matter.

De Ayala is currently a member of the European Council of Foreign Relations and the Security and Defence Council of Fundación Alternativas, a Spanish think tank, as well as an opinion writer for El Diario and El País. In his article on Ukraine’s president, he offers a rare glimpse of some of the darker sides of the Zelensky story.

On corruption:

The key to the [election] campaign that swept Zelensky into power was the fight against corruption and the oligarchs… Yet he has never been able to shake off his ties to Kolomoiski, one of the most corrupt oligarchs in Ukraine. In fact, one of his first decisions [as president] was to appoint the magnate’s lawyer, Andriy Bohdan, as head of the Presidential Administration. In October 2021, the Pandora Papers investigation revealed that Zelensky, his first assistant and Kvartal95 co-founder Sherhiy Shefir, and the head of the Ukrainian Security Service and Zelensky’s childhood friend, Ivan Bakanov, controlled a network of offshore companies in tax havens that owned valuable property in London.

On the war:

When the invasion began, Zelensky appealed for support from NATO, which was already arming and training Ukraine’s army and which gave it to him in abundance. As of the end of May, Ukraine had received more than $85 billion in military aid and the same amount in financial and humanitarian aid, which has allowed Ukraine to resist and Zelensky to stay in power. But the Ukrainian president must know that the main objective of this enormous effort, rather than the defence of Ukraine, is to weaken Russia, and that he must submit to the decisions made by his backers.

The first sign of this subservience came less than a month into the war. In March, Moscow and Kiev undertook several rounds of negotiations in Belarus and finally a meeting of the foreign ministers in Turkey. Some preliminary agreements were reached, notably regarding Ukraine’s neutrality and the withdrawal of Russian forces to their pre-invasion positions, though the territorial question was still left open. Zelensky himself declared on March 15 that Ukraine would not be a member of NATO. But in early April, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Kiev and said publicly that Putin should be pressured, not negotiated with, which brought an end to the negotiations that could have brought an end to the war. The then-Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, who mediated between the two parties, declared in February of this year, in a televised interview (it’s on YouTube), that Western countries blocked the peace agreement…

Zelensky cannot be blamed for defending the independence and integrity of his country with all the means at his disposal. But a responsible political leader has to think about the price that must be paid, especially if there is any possibility of negotiating a just peace…



Unfortunately, de Alaya regurgitates claims originally peddled by the New York Times and German media that Ukraine was behind the sabotage of the Nordstream pipelines. Yves debunked this “intelligence-insulting” story at the time. De Alaya also mentions the possibility that Ukraine was behind the recent bombing of the Nova Kajovka dam, which offers a more plausible plot line:

Neither the US, nor the UK, nor France have directly accused Moscow, which they undoubtedly would have done if they thought it was responsible. A few days after the catastrophe, the spokesman for the US National Security Council, retired Admiral John Kirby, told a press conference that they were working with the Ukrainian government to obtain more information, and that they had not reached any conclusion. After that… crickets. Presumably if they had found any proof or evidence against Russia, it would have been on all the front covers. All possibilities remain open in this case, including an accidental rupture due to structural damage from the fighting, but the radio silence from intelligence services and Western governments makes Ukraine the more likely author.

To his credit, De Alaya ventures into territory that most journalists, columnists and op-ed writers in the West dare not (or at least not just yet) in outlining the Zelensky government’s constant attacks on freedom, democracy and the rule of law, some of which predated Russia’s SMO:

Since the start of the Russian invasion, Zelensky has banned all males between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country. There is no conscientious objection, most men are recruited and sent to the front, whether they want to fight or not… In March 2022, he suspended the activity of 11 political parties… without recourse to law or providing any evidence that they had ties to Moscow… In December 2022, the Ukrainian president signed a media law that was widely criticised by the Union of Journalists of Ukraine for threatening freedom of expression. Under this law, which began to take form in 2019, long before the invasion, the National Broadcasting Council, made up mostly of Zelensky lackeys and the Ukrainian Parliament, currently dominated by the president’s party, can censor TV broadcasters, the press and online journalism, as well as social networks and search engines such as Google.

On Ukraine’s Nazis:

[Zelensky] has tolerated and tolerates Nazis in his country and in his armed and security forces, though it is difficult to say if he did so out of conviction or because he cannot do otherwise. For example, the emblem of the Azov Battalion (now the Brigade) represents the mirror image of the wolfsangel rune taken from the emblem of the 2nd SS Das Reich Division, a Nazi unit that caused the deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainians, particularly Jews, during World War II. There are more units in Ukraine of similar ideology: the Aidar, Donbass and other battalions.

Lastly, de Alaya also explains how the Zelensky brand is largely the creation of Western intelligence services, mainly from the US and UK:

The Ukrainian president has been glorified and sanctified through the tenacious propaganda of the Western intelligence services — mainly the Anglos’ — which has been widely repeated by the vast majority of the media… They have been at it since long before the invasion began, at least since they openly supported the anti-Russian Maidan coup, when Victoria Nuland – then US under-secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs and today acting deputy secretary of state in the Biden Administration — said, in a conversation with the US ambassador to Ukraine: “Fuck the EU”. Zelensky did not exist as a political player at that point. But when he did appear, he was a godsend. Who better than an actor to play the hero – military shirt, unkempt beard, dark circles around the eyes – to… arouse [public] empathy and, with it, the uncritical support of Western citizens for a campaign that goes far beyond this war.

Most of this, of course, is not news to regular NC readers and the commentariat, but the fact that it is being published in a news outlet like El Diario, which has, until now, largely hewed to the official line on the Ukraine war, is news. Even more newsworthy is the fact that José Luis Cebrián, one of Spain’s most influential figures, not only in the media but also in politics and business, is sounding the alarm about the dire consequences of the Ukraine proxy war for the EU, as well as the fact that most European politicians don’t seem to care. Unfortunately, it’s 18 months too late and much of the damage has already been done.



* This is a major understatement on Cebrián’s part. The unspoken agreement to which he refers held that NATO would not absorb any of the former Warsaw Pact countries (apart from East Germany, of course) or the former Soviet republics. As readers well know, then-US Secretary of State James Baker promised Gorbachev that NATO would not move a single inch to the East following German reunification. Instead, it has moved 1,000 kilometres (600 miles) in that direction.

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