Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Thu Sep 07, 2023 12:06 pm

murder program
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 09/07/2023

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The Russo-Ukrainian war that began in February 2022, partly on top of the one that began in 2014, has not only increased the extent and intensity of the violence, but has also made the Ukrainian question one of the major issues on the international political and media agenda. . In addition to causing a huge flow of military, economic and financial assistance to Ukraine, the Russian invasion has revealed everything that had to be kept quiet during the Donbass war. This is the case of the Ukrainian attitude towards the Minsk agreements, which for seven years were "the only viable alternative" to resolve the conflict. The Russian, Ukrainian and European authorities agreed on this in their public statements.

The arrival of Russian troops on Ukrainian territory abruptly changed the position towards those agreements. Although for a few weeks - specifically those in which Ukraine pretended to discuss a peace agreement with Russia - the demand to return to the borders of February 23, 2022 was maintained and some international representative demanded Minsk's compliance, the agreements completely disappeared from the speech with the breakdown of negotiations in Ankara. Since then, the Ukrainian narrative has come to adopt the discourse already existing in the past in the United States, which described peace agreements as unfeasible and unnecessary, since they did not resolve the key issue: Crimea. Without pressure from their European allies to maintain the Minsk fiction,

However, the Minsk issue is not the only one where freedom offered by the war between Russia and Ukraine makes it possible to bring to light aspects that in the past had been kept hidden, partly thanks to the collusion of the international press, which since the Maidan victory has always chosen not to ask uncomfortable questions to the Ukrainian authorities. One of the aspects that now have a place in the world press, which has sometimes treated them with the triviality typical of someone who has ignored for eight years the suffering of the population subjected to a war and an economic blockade, is that of selective assassinations. . Since the recovery of the territories on the right bank of the Dnieper and the Russian-controlled parts of the Kharkiv region, various media have already referred, generally in legitimizing terms, to the abuses committed against anyone considered collaborationist , a context that lends itself to all kinds of personal and political vendettas that do not seem to bother Ukraine or its defenders excessively.

Recently, there has also been talk, and in this case with some shades of criticism, of the selective assassinations committed by Ukraine. Until the arrival of the Russian troops, any violent death that occurred in the territories of the DPR and the PRL was classified by Ukraine as internal fighting between different terrorist factions.or clashes with Russia. Even the casualties that occurred as a result of the artillery bombardments were blamed on Russia, something that in the Ukrainian discourse did not clash with the classification of those territories as occupied or with the constant declarations about how Moscow handled all the strings. If the press did not doubt that Russia bombed its proxy forces, there was no need to doubt the Ukrainian word in cases where the violent deaths did not occur on the front lines. The perception that every word coming from Moscow - and by extension from Donetsk and Lugansk as well - is part of the Kremlin's propaganda to delegitimize Ukraine and that every statement from Kiev is to be regarded as proven fact precedes the Russian invasion.

The war with Russia not only makes justifiable - at least in political and media terms - the active policy of assassinating Russian or pro-Russian opponents or figures in the Russian-controlled Ukrainian territories or in the Russian Federation itself, but also allows articles to be published that openly contradict the discourse that was maintained during the eight years of war in Donbass. It is no longer necessary to hide the role of the SBU during the 2014-2022 stage or that of the GUR currently. As an article published this week recalls, Kirilo Budanov himself, director of Ukrainian military intelligence, recently stated that it is not necessary for Ukraine to create a structure similar to that of Mossad, "because it already exists." Budanov, who has not hidden that he uses groups from the most extreme right,to liquidate However, until this week, no outlet had discussed the blood revenge tactic more openly than The Economist , which wrote last Monday that “Evgen Yunakov, the mayor of Velikiy Burluk, in the Kharkiv region, he had been identified as a collaborator with the Russians. Caucasus, a Ukrainian special forces commander, and a group of local officers were given the job. His men meticulously watched him for days: when he shopped, when and where he went, his safety. Once they remotely detonated their bomb, they disappeared into safe houses inside the occupied territories. The group would not return to Ukrainian-controlled territory until weeks later, after the town was liberated. Yunakov's body has never been found."

Without nuance of criticism of the assassination of a town mayor applying the justice of the intelligence services, The Economist adds that “in the 18 months of war, dozens of people like Yunakov have been the target of clinical operations throughout the Ukraine. occupied and also inside Russia.” The article, legitimizing with much of the Ukrainian strategy, lends credence to the claim that President Zelensky has ordered to minimize civilian casualties. This option of trusting the word of the Ukrainian president deliberately ignores that those explosive devices have acted in such a clinical way that they have destroyed the families of the people designated to die.

The only case in which some critical tone is shown is that of the death of Daria Dugina, a civilian who had not participated in the war and who was possibly not even the targeted victim in an attack that was probably intended for her father. In any case, the continuation of these murders by the SBU and the GUR, civil and military intelligence respectively, is not in doubt. In the last year and a half it has become apparent that every time Ukraine has referred to Ukrainian partisans acting in the rear has actually described the work of groups linked to military intelligence, in the same way that many of the murders of previous years or the attacks against, for example, prosecutors in Lugansk, are probably due to the SBU. However, the article clashes with the discourse that has been maintained until now in relation to these acts, especially with those that occurred in the years in which the war was geographically delimited in Donbass.

Possibly the most surprising thing about the article published by The Economist this week is the sum of the headline, which openly refers to an “assassination program”, and the image with which it is illustrated: the place in the center of Donetsk where Alexander Zakharchenko, the first leader of the DPR, died, signatory of the Minsk agreements and assassinated on August 31, 2018. A quick review of the reactions of the parties and the international press at that time recalls that Russia quickly accused Ukraine of having committed a terrorist act. A bomb had exploded when the door of the establishment was opened where Zakharchenko and other members of the Oplot organization were preparing to pay homage to the Russian singer Iosif Kobzon, who had died the day before. Ukraine, for its part, saw the hand of Moscow behind the murder, a theory that was transferred without great difficulty to the entire Western press, who gave a voice to who should always have been considered one of the possible suspects in the crime.The BBC , for example, stated at the time that “a spokeswoman for the Ukrainian security service, Yelena Gitlyanskaya, rejected Moscow's accusations. She claimed that the assassination was the result of "infighting... between the terrorists and their Russian backers."

The Economist quotes Valentin Nalivaychenko, head of the SBU during several of the years of violent deaths in Donbass, describing the timing and logic of the assassination program . “In modern Ukraine, the killings date back to at least 2015, when the national security service (SBU) created a body after Russia had captured Crimea and the Donbass region. The fifth elite counterintelligence directorate created a sabotage force in response to the invasion. Afterwards he focused on what he euphemistically described as wet work ”.

No wonder the date 2015 is mentioned. That was when, fearing a collapse of its military forces, Ukraine was forced to sign the Minsk accords, that peace process that Kiev now admits it never intended to pursue. Large-scale military operations had ended and with them the possibility of defeating the People's Republics militarily. Hence, Ukraine sought alternative ways to destroy the rebellion in Donbass: maintaining pressure with bombardments of the front areas, an economic blockade against the civilian population, and selective assassinations against chosen people. “We reluctantly came to the conclusion that we needed to eliminate people,” says Naliaychenko, then head of the SBU, who cynically asserts that “we had to take the war to them”.anti-terrorist operation , which quickly escalated into outright warfare. The population lived that summer without a water supply and soon saw Ukraine stop paying salaries, pensions and social benefits while trying to besiege Donetsk, Lugansk and Gorlovka, the three big cities still under DPR and PRL control. None of this had achieved the objective of forcing Donbass to surrender to Ukraine nor had the political problem been resolved.

The decision to stage targeted killings “came when Ukraine's then leaders decided that the policy of jailing collaborators was not enough. With this argument, Nalivaychenko implicitly admits something that kyiv has denied since 2014, that there was a part of the population favorable to the People's Republics and against Ukraine. "The prisons were overflowing, but few people were deterred," says The Economist without explaining the logic of trying to discourage the population of the part of Donbass under Ukrainian control through the political assassination of leaders of the People's Republics.

Faced with the violent deaths that occurred throughout those years in Lugansk, much more unstable and with factions openly at war with each other, certain murders that took place in Donetsk always seemed to be the work of the secret service that benefited most from those deaths. Destabilizing the political and economic situation has always been Ukraine's strategy since the summer of 2014, but especially since the signing of the Minsk agreements. Eliminating military leaders also favored military destabilization. Among these murders, three stand out, which are also the same ones mentioned, although without clearly adjudicating, in The Economist article : Arsen Pavlov, Motorola ; Mikhail Tolstyj, Givi and Alexander Zakharchenko, Batya. In the case of the latter, Ukraine had eliminated one of the people with whom it had promised to negotiate in the Minsk format.

But if Kiev's goal was to deter the population, the acts had the opposite effect. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Donetsk to pay their respects to these three figures and, above all, to show their rejection of Ukraine while Kiev insisted that they were terrorist acts committed by Russia and the press legitimized the speech by publishing without critical nuance or context the statements of the SBU, which he now subtly points to as the perpetrator of the facts.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/09/07/28089/#more-28089

Google Translator

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Chronicle of the special military operation for September 6, 2023
September 6, 2023
Rybar

Last night, Russian troops attacked the port infrastructure of the Odessa region with kamikaze drones : in Kiliya, a grain terminal and fuel tanks at a local oil depot were hit. Explosions also thundered in Kiev , but there is no exact information about the targets hit.

APU fired a rocket from the Druzhkovka area at the market in Konstantinovka : 17 people were killed, more than 30 were injured. The Ukrainian authorities tried to blame the Russian Armed Forces for the attack, but the direction of the missile’s flight, established, among other things, by georeferencing the terrain and reflecting ammunition on the roof of one of the vehicles, suggests otherwise.

Fierce fighting continues along the entire line of contact on the fronts. In the Vremievsky sector, Russian troops repelled regular enemy attacks near Novodonetsky and Novomayorsky . And near Orekhovo , units of the RF Armed Forces continue to hold the southern outskirts of Rabotino , preventing the Armed Forces of Ukraine from establishing full control over the village.

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Russian Armed Forces strikes on the port infrastructure of Kiliya

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During the night, Russian troops again struck targets in the Odessa region with Geran kamikaze drones . Several arrivals fell on the infrastructure in the port of Chilia on the Danube. According to open sources, it was possible to geolocate the destruction of fuel tanks by drones at the local oil depot, as well as the Davos-Agro grain terminal.


The Ukrainian authorities also reported damage to elevators, administrative buildings and agricultural enterprises in the Izmail region . In turn, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the defeat of the training bases of sabotage groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.


Over the past months, the Russian Armed Forces have repeatedly hit the Danube ports in order to both minimize their use for attacks in the Black Sea and suspend the import and export of goods after the official termination of the “grain deal”.

The previous raid took place on the night of September 3-4: then warehouses and production facilities in Reni and Izmail were hit . Judging by the pace and frequency of strikes, objects on the Danube will become targets of Geraniums or cruise missiles more than once in the near future.

Arrival of a Ukrainian rocket at Konstantinovka

This afternoon, footage appeared of a rocket arriving at the market in Konstantinovka , located in the occupied part of the DPR . According to the video that appeared on the network, it was possible to establish that the ammunition was launched from the direction of Druzhkovka . The direction of the missile's flight was determined by georeferencing the terrain using existing buildings, including stores, as well as by reflecting the missile on the roof of one of the vehicles.


The Ukrainian authorities almost immediately unfoundedly accused the Russian troops of attacking a civilian object. Nevertheless, the facts speak of the involvement of the enemy in this act of aggression. According to the latest data, 16 people died, more than 30 were injured of varying severity.

The situation on the front line and the fighting

In the Starobelsky direction, fierce battles are going on in the Serebryansky forestry west of Kremennaya . The Russian servicemen managed to beat off several attacks by Ukrainian formations, which had to retreat with losses. There are no significant changes in the Kupyansky sector - the RF Armed Forces confidently hold their previously occupied positions near Sinkovka .


There are no significant changes on the flanks of Bakhmut in the Soledar direction - the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to attack Russian positions in Kleshcheevka . According to unconfirmed reports, the enemy again conducted a sortie to the southern outskirts of the village, but the RF Armed Forces confidently hold positions in this area.

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In the Vremievsky sector, since yesterday, the enemy has continued to activate on the right flank of the defense. From the side of the Zolotaya Niva - Prechistovka line , the forces of the 38th infantry regiment again tried to attack Novodonetskoye and Novomayorskoye . Ukrainian formations lost three armored vehicles and rolled back. According to Voin DV , the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not yet using large forces in rollovers, limiting themselves to maneuver groups. However, massive artillery preparation and accumulation of personnel can serve as a sign of an approaching offensive in this direction.


On the left flank of the RF Armed Forces, artillery strikes were carried out on the enemy's concentration in Urozhainoye and to the east of the village, disrupting the rotation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The concentration of TRO detachments continues in the Priyutnoye area , where mutual shelling has been going on for the past few days, as well as in the Olgovskoye and Malinovka areas , which may also indicate that Ukrainian formations are preparing for coordinated attacks.

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Fierce fighting continues on the Rabotino - Verbovoye line in the Orekhovsky sector . In recent weeks, control over positions in the village has changed hands for the fifth time. The settlement itself is practically destroyed and for the most part is located in the gray zone. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to try to advance to the southern outskirts and break through to Novoprokopovka , using the tactics of "meat assault". Last night, Russian units, due to the lack of tactical sense to defend the destroyed houses in Rabotino , retreated to prepared positions on the southern outskirts.

At the same time, the enemy is moving additional units to Verbovoye , clearly hoping that it will be easier to break through to the west of the settlement than to storm the heights in the south near Rabotino. However, night attacks in this direction did not achieve success. Again, heavy losses are reported in the ranks of the 82nd Oshbr.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas
In the Bryansk region, an enemy drone was intercepted over the Navlinsky district : there were no casualties or damage.

Ukrainian formations launched massive attacks on the border of the Belgorod region . In the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, a power line in the village of Vyazovoe was damaged , and in the Valuysky urban district, one household in Urazovo came under fire . In addition, the RSChS notified about the shelling of the village of Zadorozhny , as well as the villages of Bezymeno , Ilek - Penkovka , Kozinka , Kolotilovka , Novaya Tavolzhanka , Repyahovka , Sobolevka , Staroselye and Terebreno: official information about the destruction and casualties was not received.

In the Lugansk People's Republic , the enemy fired on Stakhanov : one woman was injured.


Today, the Armed Forces of Ukraine again bombed the Donetsk agglomeration throughout the day . As a result of the shelling of Volnovakha , six women were injured, in Donetsk one person was killed, two more were injured. In addition, a woman in Staromikhaylovka and a man in Vladimirovka were injured . In addition, Ukrainian strikes damaged several buildings of administrative, cultural and leisure institutions of the DPR.

In the Kherson region, Ukrainian formations continue to shell settlements on the left bank of the Dnieper on a daily basis. The enemy fired about 40 shells at the residential buildings of Novaya Kakhovka , Podlesnoye , Cossack Camps , Dnepryan , Kardashinka and Kakhovka : there were no casualties among the civilian population.

Political events
On military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The United States announced a new, 46 package of military assistance to Ukraine. It does not represent anything interesting, except for 120-mm uranium armor-piercing shells for M1 Abrams tanks, which, apparently, will be transferred to Kiev in the near future. In total, weapons and equipment worth $ 175 million are allocated , and again we note the drop in supply volumes.

The nomenclature, in addition to the mentioned shells, is standard: spare parts for air defense, ammunition for HIMARS, 105 and 155 mm shells, 81-mm mortar mines, TOW and Javelin anti-tank systems, AT-4 grenade launchers, another 3+ million cartridges for small arms, communications equipment, navigation, demolition charges for sappers, spare parts and equipment.

In addition, the leader of the Republicans in the US Senate, Mitch McConnell , said that his party is ready to approve the allocation of an additional $ 20 billion for Ukrainian needs. He explained this by saying that helping Ukraine means weakening one of the United States' biggest strategic adversaries.

The European Union, in turn, does not have time to fulfill the plan for the supply of a million shells to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by February next year, which is also affected by the low production capacities of the military-industrial complex of European countries.

On the visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Ukraine


US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived in Kiev and met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba . An American official visited the cemetery, where he paid tribute to the memory of the fallen members of the Ukrainian formations.

Western media believe that Blinken came on a visit to discuss the course of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and possible options for its development. In addition, the Secretary of State spoke to the media and made several routine statements of support for Ukraine.

In addition, he will have a meeting with Vladimir Zelensky .

On personnel changes in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

The day after the resignation of the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov, two of his deputies wrote resignations after him, as reported by the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Oleksiy Goncharenko .

At the same time, today the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine officially appointed Rustem Umerov to the post of Minister of Defense.

About "grain" disputes between Ukraine and Poland

The Ukrainian authorities threaten Poland and the European Union with courts if the ban on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products to the republic is extended. Meanwhile, Slovakia , Bulgaria , Romania and Hungary have already announced their intention to extend the ban on grain imports from Ukraine.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

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ANDREW KORYBKO: THE ARREST OF IGOR KOLOMOYSKY CONSOLIDATES US INFLUENCE OVER ZELENSKY AHEAD OF LIKELY ELECTIONS
SEPTEMBER 5, 2023 NATYLIESB

By Andrew Korybko, Substack, 9/3/23

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In an ironic twist of fate, this oligarch went from pulling the Ukrainian leader’s strings to having his life ruined by the same man who he thought was his puppet.

Many observers were shocked when the SBU arrested Zelensky’s former patron, oligarch Igor Kolomoysky, on charges of fraud, corruption, and money laundering over the weekend. The Ukrainian leader then thanked the security services in his evening address “for their determination to bring every case stalled for decades to a just conclusion.” This development comes two and a half years after the US sanctioned Kolomoysky on related pretexts, thus suggesting that the latest move was endorsed by them.

His arrest is due to several converging factors that also explain why it happened at this particular time. First, the vicious blame game that broke out between the US and Ukraine last month over the failed counteroffensive threatens to derail their relations if it isn’t soon resolved. At the core of this dispute are US accusations that Ukraine is arrogantly ignoring the military-strategic advice that it’s been given. Accordingly, the US has an interest in removing those who it suspects of negatively influencing Zelensky.

It’s unclear exactly what sway Kolomoysky might have still exerted over Zelensky after the latter fell largely under US influence since the start of Russia’s special operation a year and a half ago, but it makes sense why Washington wouldn’t want to risk the chance that he could play a role in their escalating spat. This observation doesn’t explain why he was arrested only just now, however, thus leading to the second relevant factor regarding the urgent need to manage Ukrainian and US public opinion.

People in both countries are growing fatigued and frustrated with this conflict. The challenge this poses for Ukraine is that it reduces support for prolonging the proxy war, plus folks are now starting to remember some of his other unfulfilled promises like fighting corruption. As for the US, a lot of Americans no longer want to fund Ukraine, or they at least want accountability for how their money is being spent after fearing that figures in this infamously corrupt country are stealing their tax dollars.

It therefore made sense for Zelensky to finally stage a public spectacle by allowing the arrest of his corrupt patron. He killed two birds with one stone by satiating both publics at no cost to himself. In fact, the latest phase of his anti-corruption campaign actually works in his political interests, thereby segueing into the third factor pertaining to the newfound US pressure on him to hold presidential elections next spring as planned.

Zelensky will almost certainly run for re-election even though he hasn’t yet officially announced his candidacy. He’s still somewhat popular with his people, as are most leaders whenever there’s a conflict being fought on their territory (or the territory that they claim as their own in this case), but his failure to effectively fight corruption despite prior promises disappointed many. By letting the SBU arrest his former patron Kolomoysky, however, Zelensky hopes to regain some of his base’s lost trust.

These three factors – the US wanting to consolidate its influence over Zelensky as bilateral ties become more complicated; the need to satiate the Ukrainian and US publics’ anti-corruption demands; and the incumbent’s undeclared re-election campaign – account for Kolomoysky’s arrest at this particular time. Simply put, it serves both states’ interests. In an ironic twist of fate, this oligarch went from pulling the Ukrainian leader’s strings to having his life ruined by the same man who he thought was his puppet.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2023/09/and ... elections/

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Ukraine’s Dystopian “State in a Smartphone” App is Taking the World by Storm — with America’s Help
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on SEPTEMBER 6, 2023
Stavroula Pabst

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[Photo credit: Unsplash]

DIIA, Ukraine’s state-in-a-smartphone app, has digitized and centralized 120 government services as part of Ukraine’s wartime efforts to become the most “convenient” and “digital” country on earth.

Despite the app’s dystopian disposition and severe prospects for mass surveillance and function creep, similar versions, like Estonia’s mRIIK and Poland’s mObywatel, are being tested and adopted all around the world — thanks to the help and funding of the United States.


DIIA: “The State and Me”

As its Ministry of Digital Transformation’s flagship project, Ukraine has been touting its DIIA smartphone app as a “one-stop-shop” for 120 online government services, including taxpayer services, digital IDs, driver’s licenses and digital biometric passports.

And, as part of Ukraine’s larger wartime plans to become the world’s most “convenient” and “digital” country, DIIA’s presence in Ukrainian daily life is rapidly expanding: 19 million people are now estimated to use the app, which has been downloaded onto about 70 percent of Ukrainian smartphones.

While proponents boast of DIIA’s ease-of-use and ability to boost the public’s participation in civil society, its propensity for ethical and social harms are difficult to overestimate. After all, DIIA is an acronym for “The State and Me,” in Ukrainian, which suggests the facilitation of a more hands-on, direct relationship between the state and civilian.

Critically, however, this “hands-on relationship” pushed through apps like DIIA also facilitates the government’s unprecedented access to the civilian and their private lives and personal information, simultaneously constructing a hyper-centralized digital infrastructure that could facilitate or inhibit civilians’ access to critical services and public life.

And it’s not hard to imagine scenarios where the state’s direct access to the populace’s smartphones could be weaponized in dangerous ways: if the government can add, remove, or otherwise manipulate public services with the push of a few buttons, they can make major decisions about daily life with relative impunity.

It’s clear, moreover, that DIIA and its equivalents are being designed to play key and growing roles in civilians’ economic, social, and daily lives. As I noted for Unlimited Hangout, many people prove their identity via DIIA to access banking services. Reporter Dan Cohen highlighted on Redacted, further, that CNN and Eurovision were available through DIIA, showing the tool’s propensity as a (government-curated) entertainment- and information center alike.

Despite DIIA’s dystopian disposition and apparent capacity for endless function creep, as demonstrated by its collaborative use with Telegram as a tool to help spy on and report Russians and even alleged “collaborators” to the authorities, the elite have declared DIIA a resounding success both as a tool for government services and war. “Diia was a gleam in someone’s eye just in 2019,” Sa

mantha Power exclaimed about Diia in an interview with Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, and CNN’s Andrea Mitchell. “And here we are just four years later, a massive full-scale invasion later, and you have more than 120 services available to citizens.”

In light of its perceived successes, DIIA and adjacent app-based government services like Estonia’s mRIIK, are being tested and adopted all around the world — thanks to the help and funding of the United States and especially its foreign aid and development “soft-power” arm, USAID.

Governments Everywhere Take Interest in DIIA Equivalents — With USAID’s Help

As news of DIIA spreads, governments around the world are exploring utilizing equivalent and adjacent services within their borders. At the forefront is Ukraine’s Baltic neighbor Estonia, whose DIIA-based mRIIK app is set to launch in the near future. Through mRIIK, citizens will be able to access a variety of public services, including digital identity cards, passports and driver’s licenses, though it’s currently unclear whether they’ll be accepted with the same legal authority as their paper equivalents without changes to Estonian law.

Poland, further, has launched DIIA-adjacent “mObywatel,” or “My Citizen,” a government services app which had already been downloaded over 9 million times by late February of this year. mObywatel offers a variety of public services, including eRecepty (ePrescriptions), eZwolnienia (eSickLeave) and mPrawoJazdy (mDrivingLicence). According to the Polish Government, 1.4 billion e-prescriptions were issued in 2022, suggesting eObywatel’s high adoption rate amongst the general public. Large Family Cards, a system of discounts on basic goods and services for larger families, are also available through mObywatel.

USAID, meanwhile, is facilitating new collaborations between Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation and other countries. As I noted in Unlimited Hangout, USAID provided years of financial, technical, and legal support towards DIIA’s development and launch, and has pledged $650,000 to “jumpstart the adoption of Diia-like systems and the digital technology services that underpin them” elsewhere.

At May’s DIIA in DC event, United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Administrator Samantha Power announced planned collaborations between Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation, USAID and the governments of Kosovo, Colombia, and Zanzibar towards the creation of their own public services apps.

Mykhailo Fedorov noted in an interview with US-backed Radio Svoboda, further, that Ukraine was in communication with “more than five countries” about the prospects of developing equivalent applications to use within their own borders. Ethiopia has also been mentioned as a candidate for a prospective state smartphone application. Speaking with Financial Times writer Gillian Tett, moreover, USAID Administrator Power suggested that paper-reliant American officials could perhaps learn from DIIA’s successes in government digitization.

In short, as the Atlantic Council puts it, “Ukraine’s Diia system could soon be serving as a model [for digital governance] throughout the transitional world.”

Critically, USAID is widely suspected to be a CIA front. As such, the group’s apparently intense interest in DIIA and equivalent state smartphone apps, as I wrote in Unlimited Hangout, perhaps even “posits another dimension of surveillance potential through the app — data gathering for the intelligence community.”

After all, USAID has a track record of data-gathering shenanigans around the world: for example, the organization had even created a Cuban twitter equivalent, ZunZuneo, in 2010 to meddle in the country’s affairs. According to The Guardian, the ZunZuneo app at its peak drew in about 40,000 users, who “were never aware it was created by the US government, or that American contractors were gathering their private data in the hope that it might be used for political purposes.” While USAID is more open about its relationship with DIIA than it was with ZunZuneo, the ZunZuneo incident shows that DIIA and adjacent state service apps’ prospects for mass data collection and surveillance, especially for “political purposes,” cannot be discounted.

Many of these international “state in a smartphone apps” may be based directly off DIIA, finally, perhaps suggesting the app’s possible standardization across borders, and therefore even centralization or interoperability internationally. After all, according to a June 2023 e-Estonia’s podcast episode, strides are being made towards interoperability between DIIA, mRIIK, and even the prospective EU digital wallet, which is slated to hold a variety of key digital documents. In fact, Mykhailo Fedorov wrote on Telegram in mid-July that DIIA will assist in the development of the EU Digital Wallet, and that DIIA representatives showed off their app’s capacities at the POTENTIAL (Pilots for European Digital Identity Wallet) Consortium this summer, where the EU Digital Wallet program kicked off.

And DIIA also provides its services in the form of a digital Polish residence permit, Diia.pl, in a collaboration between Ukraine and Poland (which hosts about 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees as of March 2023), allowing Ukrainian refugees to access the Schengen zone and upload other relevant government documents, like driver’s licenses, to mObywatel through DIIA.

In short, the emerging picture depicts efforts towards hyper-centralized state services’ unlimited access to and possible ability to gather data on civilian populations, perhaps even in ways that will become interoperable across borders.

And while these digitized government services are not mandatory for civilians to use at the time of writing, it’s plausible they could be one day as their paper equivalents are less frequented or otherwise phased out. After all, such apps are already being nudged on the larger population to encourage uptake: Ukraine, for example, has provided stipends to war-affected civilians through DIIA.

Towards App-Based Governance?

While proponents boast DIIA’s convenience and propensity to boost participation in civil affairs and crush corruption, the tool’s prospects for mass surveillance, function creep and even social control are ultimately unprecedented. Such issues, however, remain little discussed despite the concept’s rapid international proliferation. And assistance and investment to DIIA and adjacent projects through USAID, considering the organization’s track record, only signals the US’ desire to mass surveil or otherwise influence other nations’ affairs as war in Ukraine deepens.

Unfortunately, because DIIA is an effort grounded in a fusion of public but also private, and therefore functionally unaccountable, efforts (including the likes of tech and financial giants, such as Visa), those developing and spreading it and similar apps have little contact with or responsibility to the very public who will likely be nudged into using the technology.

In other words, DIIA’s likely coming to a country near you soon.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/09/ ... icas-help/

Declasified: How US Deceived Russia Over NATO Enlargement
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on SEPTEMBER 6, 2023
Kit Klarenberg

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Yeltsin kept schtum on the military bloc, and enlisted in the Partnership for Peace. Despite plans for NATO expansion already being well-laid by that point, and very much in motion, he remained silent about developments.

On August 18th, the official Twitter account of NATO’s Allied Command Transformation published a slick animated video, seeking to “get [the] facts straight” on the “defensive alliance”, and dispel “false myths” about its nature and objectives, disseminated by Russia.

Among those “myths” is the notion NATO promised Russia it would not expand after the Cold War. Of course, there is ample documentary evidence indicating that in the two years leading up to the USSR’s December 1991 dissolution, Mikhail Gorbachev and other high-ranking Soviet officials were repeatedly told precisely that by their US opposite numbers. This is well-known to the point of being uncontroversial, begging the obvious question of why the alliance maintains otherwise in the present.

Less understood is how NATO enlargement into the former Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union was achieved, in the face of significant Russian hostility, during the 1990s. The sordid tale is nonetheless amply spelled out in a highly revealing tranche of documents released by the US National Security Archive. The files reveal how Russian President Boris Yeltsin was consistently manipulated by his US counterpart Bill Clinton on the question during the 1990s, while bold, false promises of a “strategic partnership” between the countries repeatedly came to nothing.

Take for instance the transcript of a cordial July 5th 1,994 telephone conversation between Clinton and Yeltsin. At the time, the US President was preparing to depart for soon-to-be NATO members Poland and the Baltics, before meeting with Yeltsin at the G7 summit in Italy.

Yeltsin urged Clinton to raise the plight of Russophones in Estonia and Latvia, as “a public statement…that the US will not support any infringement on the rights of the Russian-speaking people” would mean these countries “act differently.” He noted Lithuania’s quick granting of citizenship to its Russian minority had prompted Moscow to withdraw its troops from Vilnius. The same could happen by August in Tallinn and Riga if assurances were made. Yeltsin also wished to discuss NATO expansion.

Clinton swore he’d “raise the issue of the Russian minorities,” and reassured Yeltsin that while NATO might “eventually expand,” he’d set out “no timetable and no requirements.” Instead, he indicated that he’d “like us to concentrate” on Partnership for Peace, a US-led initiative seeking to “achieve a united Europe where people respect each other’s borders and work together.” Yeltsin would’ve been entirely forgiven for thinking the Partnership was Washington’s primary focus, and NATO an afterthought, by the conclusion of the chat.

‘New Form of Encirclement’

The Russian president’s optimism about “a mutually beneficial partnership with the US on the basis of equality” is evident in a letter he sent to Clinton in November that year. Yeltsin spoke of this prospective coalition as “the central factor in world politics,” and pledged to cooperate constructively with the US on issues related to Bosnia, Iraq, North Korea, and Ukraine.” He “eagerly” awaited their meeting at that December’s Conference on Security and Cooperation in Budapest, where “we have much to talk about … first of all, transforming European stability.”

As it was, the Hungarian summit was a disaster. Clinton dubbed NATO as “the bedrock of security in Europe,” and boldly declared “no country outside will be allowed to veto expansion,” clearly referencing Russia. In response, Yeltsin used his own oratory to fulminate, “it is a dangerous delusion to suppose the destinies of continents and the world…can somehow be managed from one single capital.” He further warned, “[moving] the responsibilities of NATO up to Russia’s borders” would be a grave error.

An internal US diplomatic memo from the day after shows lessons were promptly learned from this embarrassing episode. Namely, the urgent need to keep quiet publicly about US plans for extending the military alliance, while offering bogus private assurances to Moscow that any enlargement would only occur after consultation between the two countries, and Russia was still in the running for bloc membership.

Fast-forward to May 1995, and Clinton visited Moscow to celebrate the 50th anniversary of Allied victory in World War II. These conscious, deliberate lies were on full display during his one-on-one meeting with Yeltsin. Records of the event suggest the pair’s rapport was genuinely chummy, although serious matters were very much on the table too. The Russian president pleaded to his US counterpart:

“How do you think it looks to us if one bloc continues to exist while the Warsaw Pact has been abolished? It’s a new form of encirclement if the one surviving Cold War bloc expands. Many Russians have a sense of fear. What do you want to achieve with this if Russia is your partner? We need a new structure for Pan-European security, not old ones! Perhaps the solution is to postpone NATO expansion until the year 2000 so that later we can come up with some new ideas.”

Clinton somewhat amazingly suggested Moscow should view his approach to NATO “in the context of greater integration of Russia into other international institutions,” while dangling the prospect of various sweeteners, including membership of the G7, if Yeltsin quietened his anti-NATO rhetoric, and kept his opinions on the bloc’s expansion to himself. Clinton knew well that such compliance was easily bought. As his Russian “friend” acknowledged, his position heading into the 1996 Presidential election was “not exactly brilliant.”

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‘A Tragic Mistake’

At that time, Yeltsin’s polling stood in the single digits, and his Communist rival Gennady Zyuganov was widely forecast to win via landslide. Yeltsin spoke of needing “positive reports” in the press, and to “head off even the smallest wrong move.” He proposed any discussion of NATO enlargement being kept theoretical until 2000, and urged the White House not to do anything to “rile the situation up before the elections.” Clinton duly pledged:

“I’ll do nothing to accelerate NATO [expansion]. I’m trying to give you now, in this conversation, the reassurance you need. But we need to be careful that neither of us appears to capitulate. For you, that means you’re not going to embrace expansion. For me, it means no talk about slowing the process down or putting it on hold or anything like that.”

So it was that Yeltsin kept schtum on the military bloc, and enlisted in the Partnership for Peace. Despite plans for NATO expansion already being well-laid by that point, and very much in motion, he remained silent about developments. The Russian President’s acquiescence was further assured by extensive covert and overt US assistance in his election campaign, which was fundamental to transforming an initial six percent standing in the polls to an extremely comfortable victory.

Less than three years later, NATO began engulfing the former Soviet sphere, incorporating the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. This push was opposed Stateside by, among others, George Kennan – a committed ‘Cold Warrior’ and key figure in the alliance’s creation. In May 1998, following the US Senate ratifying NATO’s enlargement, he wrote:

“I think it is the beginning of a new Cold War…The Russians will gradually react quite adversely, and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else…Of course, there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians are – but this is just wrong.”

Today, with Russia and Ukraine at war and the latter’s political and military future, if not outright existence as a state, in the balance, Kennan’s words give the disquieting appearance of an unheeded prophet’s warning come terribly true.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/09/ ... largement/

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APU sent the last reserve brigades into battle
September 6, 23:29

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APU sent the last reserve brigades into battle

In September, the last of the reserve brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, trained with the help of NATO, left for the front.
The last reserves went on the offensive - they went together to strengthen the attack on Rabotino. Even the 82nd brigade had to be obtained with carefully stored Challengers

In addition to them, by the way, the "Offensive Guard" joined the offensive (what is it ( https://t.me/z_arhiv/18626?single)? ). In particular, "Kara-Dag", "Spartan", "Azov" (yes, these are the basics of the National Guard of the 15th brigade of the NGU, and not the 3rd ODShBr) - deployed between Rabotino and Novopokrovka. And to the north, the Novopokroyks sent the National Guard to reinforce: 11 (Mikhail Grushevsky) and 27 (Pecherskaya).
From the latter, in an attempt to stabilize the front near Svatovo, a new 43rd mechanized brigade was sent, and the 68th chasseur brigade was also transferred there.

At the same time, in the battle for Rabotino for three months, the enemy participated:
🔹 12 brigades
🔹3 shelves
🔹 + a bunch of separate battalions and UAV units, as well as several artillery brigades

Comparing with the so-called "leaked report" ( https://t.me/z_arhiv/20101?single ) (you can see the approximate equipment of the brigades), which allegedly revealed the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the offensive - the image shows all the new brigades and which of them are already involved.
offensive in the south
🟩33 mech. brigade
🟩47 mech. brigade
🟩23 mech. brigade
🟩31 months. brigade
🟩14 col
🟩78 Regiment DShV
🟩82nd brigade of DSHV
🟩38 Brigade MP
🟩37 Brigade MP
🟩47 art brigade
🟩23 mech. brigade
🟩116 mech. brigade
🟩117 mech. brigade
🟩118 mech. brigade
Kleshcheevka
🟥22 biga
Kremennaya
🟥42 fur. brigade
🟥44 months. brigade
🟥21 mech. brigade
🟥32 months. brigade
Matchmaker
🟥43 fur. brigade
Kupyansk
🟥88 mech. brigade
🟥41 mech. brigade
☑️On June 19, 2/3 of all brigades were involved (infographics)
( https://t.me/z_arhiv/23371?single)✅Accordingly , at the moment, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have involved all the new brigades from the leaked report.
In addition, the enemy began to actively engage "individual rifle battalions." They are given to brigades while they send line battalions on rotation. At the same time, on paper, they are included in the 141, 142, 143 and 144 brigades.
✉️"Z-committee" ( https://t.me/z_arhiv ) - zinc

In Ukraine, from October 1, women will be put on military records.
There is already a catastrophic shortage of men, now they plan to rake in the women.
Work also continues to organize the deportation of male refugees from Europe.
The raking of students, people with various types of disabilities, etc. is facilitated. and so on.
300,000 new cannon fodder won't pick themselves up. Volunteers are long gone. There remains the routine of processing the remaining male population of Ukraine into minced meat, which we will observe at least in the next year.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8616431.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Fri Sep 08, 2023 12:02 pm

The morale of the Red Army
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 09/08/2023

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Antony Blinken, Secretary of State of the United States, has visited kyiv again to show "the unwavering commitment of the United States to Ukraine and its people." In reality, such support is limited to the part of the Ukrainian people who is favorable to the kyiv authorities. The rest of the population, especially those who have shown their rejection of Ukraine and who have even taken up arms to defend themselves against the Ukrainian Armed Forces, are simply ignored to avoid admitting the civil conflict on which the Russo-Ukrainian war is based. Accepting the existence of this conflict would also imply denying the unity of the Ukrainian people., a media construct to justify the constant flow of weapons and the rejection of any negotiation. In the long term, admitting that the Donbass and Crimean protests stemmed from legitimate grievances would require a political compromise that neither kyiv nor its partners are willing to make. This was demonstrated for seven years with the Minsk process, in which linguistic and cultural rights, in addition to the ability to trade with the Russian border regions and the maintenance of a regional police force, were considered an unacceptable concession, a way of undermining the Ukrainian sovereignty. In the past year, this stance has been further radicalized to deny language rights to the Crimean population - assuming that Ukraine will regain the territory - and even denying that there is a Russian-speaking people in Ukraine.

The war in Donbass, always presented as a war against Russia, although Ukraine mostly faced residents of the area and Ukrainian citizens, already exacerbated nationalist impulses and was used as a catalyst for the reorganization of an anti-Russian state and which, people, had chosen the western path to the European Union and NATO. The Russian invasion further accelerated this process and facilitated the national and international legitimization of that for which the Vyatrovich, Parubiy or Semenyaka had been working for years. Azov's normalization as a heroic homeland defense force is just one example of this. But beyond the institutionalization of an increasingly radical nationalist discourse, the war with Russia has facilitated the erasure of all that part of the population that, even now, does not identify with those postulates. In the case of the population on the other side of the front , the war against Russia has come to mean simply the need for their liberation ., without this implying a political commitment to seek an accommodation that deals with the political claims from which Crimea's accession to Russia and the Donbass protests arose. Once the internal conflict has been eliminated with a stroke of the pen and any option of compromise with the population and basic guarantees such as security and civil and political rights - not to mention linguistic and cultural rights - have been rejected, the only acceptable option for Ukraine is victory total.

The economic, political and military situation makes Ukraine a country increasingly dependent on its foreign partners and allies, whose assistance -debts of the future- allows the country to continue maintaining a certain fiction of functioning, for example, with the payment of salaries and pensions and train traffic. This funding, added to the constant flow of weapons, also makes it possible for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to continue fighting with certain guarantees. The withdrawal or reduction of that assistance would not completely stop the Ukrainian troops, who would in all probability continue to fight for a while, but it would doom them to defeat. Under the current conditions, Ukraine is not just a country acting as proxy countryof its partners, mainly from the United States and the United Kingdom, but practically as a colony that needs the favor of its suppliers to continue maintaining the viability of the State.

The last months, and especially the last weeks, have shown moments in which the interests of Ukraine and those of its partners and suppliers have not coincided, something essential to guarantee the continuation of this hierarchical relationship in which the West will only continue to maintain to the country as long as it sees its interests fulfilled. The current offense is offering examples of that clash. This is the case of the tactic chosen to break the Zaporozhye front in the direction of Melitopol. As even Ukrainian commanders have denounced, the United States has sent Ukrainian troops into a heavily mined open field, advancing in armored columns in full view of powerful Russian artillery without the necessary air cover. The result has not only been the destruction of the much-vaunted Leopards or even an early British Challenger - the first loss of this type of tank in combat since it was put into service in 1994 - but such a high number of casualties that Ukraine opted for modify the tactic to look for other types of advances that were not so harmful to their troops. However, the United States has again demanded a return to the original tactic, reproaching Ukraine for fear of suffering heavy casualties. However, these disagreements are tactical and not strategic, which is why the collaboration between those who finance the war and those who pay blood is in no way endangering. Furthermore, Zaluzhny's acceptance of the British-American tactic confirms the subservient relationship between kyiv, London and Washington.

In his recent visit, in addition to a public relations event at a McDonald's in the city, Secretary of State Blinken again affirmed that US support will continue "for as long as it is needed," a long-term commitment that a political leader whose president is facing in a year to the fight for re-election can not promise. However, part of Antony Blinken's job is precisely to guarantee that, whoever is in charge of the White House, there is a majority in the United States Congress and Senate in favor of continuing a conflict against Russia that is already taking on the appearance of eternal war. .

Despite the Mediazona , which together with the BBC monitors the country's local press in search of obituaries of Russian soldiers, the front has not collapsed and the defense remains stable and acting with much greater solvency than a year ago. anus. encouraging progress. As Blinken has recently highlighted, for the moment, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has not met the expectations that the Kiev government and its allies had created for this summer. September will be a key month to observe the situation of the front at the end of the favorable weather season, something that will change with the arrival of the rains, making large operations in the open field difficult. Ukraine clings to the idea of ​​having managed to make a hole in the first line of Russian defense in Rabotino (480 inhabitants according to the last census), a town that propaganda has turned into a key and where Ukraine, which still does not have effective control, continue to suffer losses.

More and more articles in the mainstream media assume that Ukraine and its partners will not achieve their maximalist goals of capturing Melitopol and moving towards the shores of the Azov Sea, thus jeopardizing Russian control over Crimea. The proliferation of material critical of Ukraine and of the counteroffensive have outraged people like David Petraeus and Frederick Kagan, exemplars of Republican neoconservatism, who in an article published in The Washington Post have denounced the "excessive pessimism" of the media. However, there are those who have already begun to offer solutions. Gone are the suggestionsabout the changes in tactics that could improve the results of the operations underway, the reproaches about the Ukrainian reluctance to accept massive casualties or the most serious accusation, that of continuing to depend on the Soviet army's way of waging war. Now, the objective is to prepare future offensives.

In March 2022, with the rejection by Ukraine and its partners of an agreement according to which Russia offered to withdraw from all Ukrainian territories with the exception of Crimea and Donbass, the negotiations broke down definitively, making war the only way of resolution. of the conflict, with all that that implies. That break polarized the situation even more and the demands have only increased. Ukraine no longer demands to return to the borders of February 23, 2022 but to those of 1991, while Russia hopes to maintain control of all the territories currently under its control and only aspires to advance in the Donbass region. In this way, for Russia, which for a year has made it clear that its position is defensive, maintaining the front in its current composition would already be a victory,

This is where an article published recently by the Financial Times falls into place, which admits that victory is impossible at the moment, but which it presents as practically inevitable by 2024 or 2025. The approach is simple and part of the fallacy that Ukraine is waging a fight for the survival of your people, so your complete victory is imperative. “The current counter-offensive is not going to drive Russia out, not that anyone expected that. It is likely that it will not cut the occupation in two before winter either, something that could be one of the most optimistic objectives. However, he has shown how the Russian army can be defeated. Not in 2023, but in 2024 or 2025. Hence the phrase of the Western allies to support Kiev as long as necessarywrites Richard Barrons, a former general in the British Army and former commander of Joint Forces Command.

Barrons' plan consists of five points: don't pressure Kiev to achieve great successes while it doesn't have the means to do so; maintain pressure on territory under Russian control in winter; weaken Russian control in the territories beyond 2024; “neutralize” the Black Sea Fleet and increase the defense capacity to supply Ukraine with the quantities of weapons it needs. Several of those points, especially the destruction of the Black Sea Fleet, industrial production and arms supply depend directly on Ukraine's Western allies, from whom two more years of large-scale military production and huge flows of financing for Kiev, something that is hardly sustainable for European countries. The message is consistent with what was raised by Senator Bluementhal,It's coming cheap for the United States .

The experience of the current counteroffensive does not show, as Barrons alleges, that Russia can be defeated, although it has left many interesting points: the learning curve that war entails for both sides, the growing importance of drones as a weapon and as a coordination tool and the difficulty that tanks are suffering, also western ones in modern warfare. With the Leopard and Challengers eliminated as a miracle weapon and still waiting for the Abrams, which will have depleted uranium ammunition to do as much damage as possible, Barrons' hope is aviation. Hence, despite mentioning 2024, his goal is actually 2025, giving Ukrainian pilots enough time to learn English and carry out instruction in driving F16s or other Western models.

Barrons, who is not alone in this approach, proposes two more years of suffering and war for the civilian population and at least two more great campaigns of death and destruction as well as constant pressure against Russia in the territories under its control. In practice, this means continuing to bombard infrastructure but also civilian positions - as happens daily in the city of Donetsk - the continuation of the policy of targeted assassinations that Ukraine now boasts of and the drone warfare that deals damage daily. All of this at the expense of the civilian population, collateral victims on whose behalf an eternal war is being fought but whose well-being does not matter at all, and under the approach that "if the morale of the Red Army is already poor, it must be made more poor". With its views from the great hotel abyss , the soldiers of the Cold War seek to wage a fight against their historic Russian enemy -so historic that the Red Army disappeared to become the Soviet Army after World War II- to the last Ukrainian. At the moment, yes, the morale of the Red Army seems not to be as poor as Ukraine and its partners would like.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/09/08/la-mo ... more-28096

Google Translator

*******

Chronicle of the special military operation for September 7, 2023
September 7, 2023
Rybar

Russian servicemen continue to fight off the incessant "meat" assaults of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Orekhovsky and Vremevsky sectors . The suicide attacks near Verbovoy led to high losses for the 82nd Air Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but so far they have not been able to seriously change the configuration of the front.

Meanwhile, in the Kherson direction, Ukrainian formations landed a DRG consisting of 30 people on the island of Pereyaslavsky to create a bridgehead and further strike on Novaya Kakhovka. The RF Armed Forces learned about the maneuver of the enemy, which almost completely destroyed the group. Its remnants were able to evacuate to the right bank of the Dnieper.

Throughout the day, raids on the border territories of the Russian Federation do not stop . For several days in a row , Bryansk has been hit hard - today, air defense shot down several drones on approach to the city, but one was able to drop IEDs on an industrial enterprise. In addition, today the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked Rostov-on-Don and, for the first time, the Volgograd Region .

In addition, today we published a video of the work of Russian sabotage groups behind enemy lines in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. The published footage shows combat work on the enemy’s manpower, and the blowing up of a bridge in the Novgorod-Seversky region , and the destruction of the equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

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Personnel of the work of Russian DRGs in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions

[youtube]http://vk.com/video-216162493_456241553[/youtube]
We published a cut of footage of the work of our units on the other side of the front in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions . Ambushes, shootings of buses and pickups with units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and territorial defense, knocking out cars from a grenade launcher from a dozen meters, control shots and many killed opponents. The footage shows the mining and blowing up of the bridge across the Sudost River in the Novgorod-Seversky district of the Chernihiv region (52.339440, 33.304836) - our aviation worked on it back in April. And don't say later that Russian DRGs are not there.

This is a greeting card from the GUR of Ukraine on the occasion of his birthday. How are the landings on Tarkhankut?


Later, colleagues from Lost Armor counted in our video more than 30 liquidated members of Ukrainian formations and over 10 destroyed enemy vehicles.

About the frequency of 149.200 and the surrender of the APU fighters

Rybar's team , together with Revenge of Goodwill , continues a humanitarian (in the true sense of the word) project aimed at saving Ukrainians from inglorious death. Since the call for the surrender of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by entering the frequency 149.200 with the call sign Volga was first published , more than 150 military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have surrendered. To some, this figure will seem small, but when we discussed this option of surrender at the very beginning, we immediately considered for ourselves that even if 1 person surrenders, then all this work has already been done for good reason.

According to information received by us, in the ranks of the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, our call caused a serious "headache", there are cases that many units receive bans on checking personnel for the presence and subsequent seizure of radio stations through which soldiers of the Ukrainian army will be able to go with us to connection. Personally, several Vushniks have already written to us in the bot, voicing this situation.

What's the way out? We offer:

1. Use 2 more frequencies: 49.200 and 449.200. In addition to VHF, a soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can use LB and UHF bands, go on the air from army radio stations of the USSR period, regularly installed in armored vehicles, radio stations of the Harris, Aselsan, Thales families used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other units. We know that now the next cries from the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin about the non-use of old Soviet radio stations on the equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the equipment is out of date, yes, but our team is working on the issue of various communication channels and the use of all kinds of equipment that can be used for those who want to stop the senseless slaughter.

2. We appeal to the Ukrainian signalmen: STOP KILLING YOURSELF! When flashing digital radios, flash the frequencies 149.200 and 449.200 into them, depending on the type of radio. Leave a chance to survive your own brothers! We are already considering a way to deliver radios capable of reaching the Volga to the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We will conduct testing on one of the sectors of the front.

The situation on the front line and the fighting

In the Starobelsky direction, fierce fighting intensified in the Kupyansky sector in the Sinkovka area . According to some reports, Russian troops continued their offensive against enemy positions.


In the Soledar direction , the Ukrainian command continues to send assault groups to attack Russian positions near Kleshcheevka and Andreevka . Nevertheless, all attacks are successfully suppressed by units of the RF Armed Forces. At the same time, a significant concentration of enemy forces along the northern and southern flanks of the Bakhmut defense is recorded in the sector . In the coming days, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may resume active offensive operations in the area, trying to surround the city.

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While loud and bright events were unfolding either in the south in the Zaporozhye region and the DPR , then near Kupyansk , then in the Svatovsky section , the events in Marinka in the Donetsk direction , for which fighting has been going on for many months, have faded into the background.

There were also successful attacks, there were also premature statements about the imminent liberation of the city, but the front line has not changed much since the spring. But in recent weeks, soldiers of the 150th division of the RF Armed Forces have been able to move deep into low-rise buildings in Maryinka. Judging by the footage roaming the net, including from the Tankers of the Southern Military District , Russian troops advanced along Polygraphic, Kashtanovaya, Shakhterskaya, and Ivan Franka streets near the Osikov River, significantly deepening into the enemy’s defenses - a little more than 300 meters remain to the outskirts.

And that's not all: slowly but surely, the OBMS group and attack aircraft of the 5th brigade of the 1st AC of the RF Armed Forces were able to advance in the direction of Krasnogorovka north of Maryinka . And it is not easy to take a stronghold, but to occupy the legendary fortified area, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine held for more than 9 years. And the offensive of the Russian Army continues.

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Fighting continues in the Vremievsky sector . Over the past 24 hours, the Marines of the 37th brigade of the Ukrainian Navy tried several times to attack at the Novodonetskoye-Novomayorskoye line . According to the Warrior of the Far East , they managed to penetrate the defense, but subsequently the fighters of the 40th brigade of the RF Armed Forces recaptured their positions. Similarly, three assault detachments of the 37th infantry regiment, under the cover of massive artillery cluster munition fire, attacked the landings northwest and west of Novodonetsk, where they immediately tried to equip strongholds, which were subsequently destroyed.

At the moment, Ukrainian artillerymen are massively shelling the front line, and detachments of the 35th infantry regiment have been moved to Zolotoy Niva , which indicates preparations for a new wave of offensive. To the west, units of the 37th infantry regiment again stormed the positions of the Russian army near the forest belts near Harvest , but to no avail. At the same time, a low level of morale is noted in the ranks of the enemy and the number of deserters is growing, which is why detachments were placed in the vicinity of Makarovka .

In the direction of Priyutnoye, the situation has not changed much - the Armed Forces of Ukraine have taken up positions along the landing, but they are not going on the attack, waiting for results on the eastern flank. Artillery is working on enemy concentrations: as a result of several strikes by the RF Armed Forces, eight were killed and four were wounded in the 1st detachment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two more fled.

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On the Orekhovsky sector at the turn of Rabotino - Verbovoye, the "meat" assault on Russian positions by Ukrainian formations continues. After the withdrawal of the RF Armed Forces from Rabotino, the village finally moved into the gray zone - the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not even try to enter there due to the senselessness of this step.

But with Verbov, the situation is somewhat different: the Ukrainian command sends assault detachments there without stopping to secure them at strongholds under artillery fire, including friendly fire. Over the past day, paratroopers of the 2nd battalion of the 82nd airborne brigade, after clearing the area, went on the attack from the Chubenkov Balka area and even managed to gain a foothold in one position, where they immediately began to equip a new one.

But the situation does not change radically: the Armed Forces of Ukraine send infantry groups to slaughter, trying to advance a couple of tens or hundreds of meters in order to somehow justify this tactic. Evacuation teams are working non-stop, taking out the wounded and killed from the battlefield. The losses of the enemy reached significant proportions, and the "elite" 82 odshbr was greatly thinned. Apparently, because of this, the forces of the 71st Jaeger Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which have already appeared in the vicinity of Orekhov, will soon begin to participate in the battles.


In addition to army aviation helicopters, bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces are also working against the enemy in the Orekhovsky sector . On the video of the channel Frontovaya Ptichka , the simultaneous arrival of four FAB-500 bombs with universal planning and correction modules (UMPC) at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in forest plantations at once. The appearance of such kits significantly increased the combat capabilities of front-line aviation: after converting free-falling bombs into gliding crews, they got the opportunity to strike at targets from a relatively long distance, reducing the risk of falling under Ukrainian air defense fire.

Literally in a year, the domestic industry managed to achieve more in the development and production of serial high-precision bombs than in the last 30 years. Naturally, the tight deadlines affected the products: somewhere I would like more accuracy, and in some cases more reliable operation. However, work in this direction continues, and an increasing number of Russian aircraft are able to use these munitions. And more recently, UMPCs have also begun to be installed on the FAB-1500, the mass of the warhead of which exceeds that of the Caliber and Iskander OTRK missiles.

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On the Kherson direction yesterday morning, units of the 131st reconnaissance battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in two groups from Olgovka and Kozatsky landed three dozen people in the north of Pereyaslavsky (Kozatsky) Island . The DRG moved inland to create a foothold: it is necessary for a subsequent strike on Novaya Kakhovka . The enemy did not expect opposition from the Russian troops in the Dnieper Delta.

Russian units advanced to the landing area in advance after receiving intelligence information. Therefore, the Ukrainian units waited: first, mines were detonated remotely, and then the reconnaissance groups of the RF Armed Forces, which were in ambush, with the support of mortars and tanks from the left bank, started a battle. Panic began in the ranks of 131 orbs: the assault troops fled to the north of the island, leaving the wounded and dead. On the shore, the groups took up all-round defense in anticipation of evacuation. The boat, which followed the ambushed forces of 131 orbs, was hit first by artillery, and then by a drone - the boat was flooded off the coast. Another boat hit a mine northwest of the island. In addition, Russian gunners destroyed one pickup truck with three people, which was carrying an evacuation group to the pier from Otradokamenka .

In total, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 20 people killed in this senseless sortie, and the remaining DRG, under the cover of heavy artillery and mortar fire, still managed to get to the right bank of the Dnieper.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

At night, Ukrainian formations once again used drones to attack Russian rear areas. In the Moscow region, a drone was intercepted over Ramenskoye, located near the Zhukovsky airport : at the site of the fall of debris, a blast wave knocked out windows in residential buildings nearby.

In Rostov-on-Don, Russian anti-aircraft gunners shot down two drones: one fell in the center, the other in the western part of the city. Several cars were damaged, as well as the facades and glazing of three buildings. One person was hurt. Local residents also reported the sound of an explosion in nearby Bataysk . A guest non-residential two-story house in the city center received damage - at the moment, the circumstances of the incident are being specified.

In addition, Ukrainian formations for the first time used a drone to attack the Volgograd region. The device was intercepted not far from a military unit in the Gorodishchensky district. Damage and casualties were avoided.


In the morning in the Bryansk region, the enemy attacked Bryansk again : one drone was shot down in the suburbs of the regional capital, the other in the vicinity of the railway station. The wreckage of the latter damaged the glazing of the station, but no one was injured in the incident. Later, Ukrainian formations again attacked the city - this time an industrial facility was damaged in it, but there were no casualties. In addition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired on the villages of Demyanki and Sluchevsk , no one was injured, but civilian infrastructure was partially destroyed.

In the Kursk region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired at Uspenovka and Gordeevka , firing at least ten shells at the settlements. In both cases, casualties were avoided, but power lines were cut in Gordeevka.

In the Belgorod region, the enemy fired on the village of Zadorozhny and the village of Novopetrovka . There were no casualties, but windows were shattered in several private houses.


Ukrainian formations continue to fire dozens of rounds of ammunition every day at the settlements of the Donetsk agglomeration . As a result of shelling in Gorlovka , a pumping station was de-energized and residential buildings were damaged: at least three people were injured, including two teenagers. Again, Donetsk was under massive fire : residential buildings and cars were damaged, fires broke out in several places of hits.

Today in the Zaporozhye region, not far from Vasylivka , enemy artillery struck a car in which a family with two children was traveling. A 13-year-old child and mother received shrapnel wounds, two more people are in a state of shock. The injured have been hospitalized.


Massive shelling of settlements in the Kherson region also continues . Under the fire of the Ukrainian formations were Aleshki, Naked Pristan, Gornostaevka, Dnepryan, Zabarino, Cossack Camps, Kardashinka, Kakhovka, Krynki, Novaya Kakhovka and Novaya Zburyevka, Peschanovka, Sagi, Podstepne, and Pokrovskoe .

Political events
On military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who is in Kiev , announced the allocation of $ 90.5 million in additional assistance to the Armed Forces for mine clearance - the funds will be included in a new aid package of more than a billion dollars, which Blinken announced the day before. He also announced that the United States is donating another $300 million to finance Ukraine's law enforcement sector.

At the same time, the US Department of Defense commented on the provision of ammunition with depleted uranium to Ukraine. It is noted that depleted uranium ammunition can be fired from American Abrams tanks, which are due to arrive in Ukraine this fall. They can penetrate armor plates, because depleted uranium rounds are almost 70% denser than lead. At the same time, Pentagon representatives Sabrina Singh noted that "Ukrainians will use them responsibly."

On possible deliveries of promising Panther KF51 tanks to Ukraine

The German edition of Die Welt has published a video of testing the latest Panther KF51 tank . Although the machine is not even mass-produced yet, the authors have already called its possible delivery to the Kyiv regime a “turning point” in hostilities. Earlier, the Rheinmetall concern expressed a desire not only to sell these tanks to Ukraine, but even to produce them on its territory. Theoretically, this is possible - an underground plant is being created in Transcarpathia , where it is quite possible to assemble tanks from imported kits.

There is only one “but”: Panther KF51 has not been purchased by any army in the world at the moment, and the Panther itself for the most part acts as a technology demonstrator. It is irrational to build a "raw" tank at a plant that has not yet been created in a combat zone, even by Ukrainian standards. However, such high-profile statements provide Rheinmetall with an advertising campaign for their product. And you can also get rich - get more money under the pretext of working in a dangerous area, but in reality produce KF51 in Germany, and use the plant in Transcarpathia to repair ordinary Leopards.

It is especially funny how Die Welt exhibits this non-production wunderwaffe machine, which is certainly capable of changing the course of the war. Apparently, the years of experience in the use of "Leopards", as well as other examples of 80 years ago, did not teach journalists anything.

Mobilization in Ukraine

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The postponement of mobilization while receiving higher education has so far helped tens of thousands of Ukrainian men to “mow down” from the army. In the summer, preparations for a “difficult decision” began - a whole series of journalistic investigations came out about the too large number of “aged students” (that is, potential deviationists) in universities.

Then the party's line was confirmed by NSDC Secretary Aleksey Danilov. And finally, on September 3, a law was submitted to the Verkhovna Rada to abolish the deferment from mobilization for Ukrainians, as it was announced at the beginning, over 30 years old, receiving a second and higher education under martial law. However, this is only the beginning. We analyzed this situation in detail in our other article .

Meanwhile, the representative of the President of Ukraine in the Verkhovna Rada, Fyodor Venislavsky , said that women on military registration would be restricted from leaving the country. According to the latest changes, women with a medical or pharmaceutical education must be registered with the military from October 1, 2023. They acquire the status of persons liable for military service, for whom travel abroad is restricted. At the same time , Andrei Demchenko , a representative of the State Border Guard Service , pointed out that in order to restrict the travel abroad for women liable for military service, from October 1, a separate resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers is needed.

In addition, we have already written earlier that now in Ukraine it will be possible to mobilize those with limited fitness, the sick, including some mental illnesses.

On assessments of the Ukrainian offensive

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that earlier the Russian army was considered the second strongest in the world, but now this place is confidently occupied by Ukraine. At the same time, the head of the North Atlantic Alliance noted that experts should not complain about the speed of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, when they previously announced the fall of Kyiv in a few days.

At the same time, the head of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, Trent Maul , admits that US and Ukrainian officials failed to appreciate the depth of the Russian defense and how difficult it would be to penetrate it with armored vehicles.

Pressure on the UOC-MP

In Transcarpathia , law enforcement officers detained an Orthodox priest for posting images with communist symbols, including a red star badge and a military order of the USSR, on social networks. In addition, the man posted messages in which he congratulated “Happy Victory Day” and even decorated his avatar with the image of a five-pointed red star.

With regard to the detained initiated under Art. 436 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine - "public use of symbols of the communist regime." Under this article, he faces up to five years in prison.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

(Other images at link.)

How are they preparing for the mobilization of students in Ukraine?
September 7, 2023
Rybar

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The postponement of mobilization while receiving higher education has so far helped tens of thousands of Ukrainian men to “mow down” from the army. In the summer, preparations for a “difficult decision” began - a whole series of journalistic investigations came out about the too large number of “aged students” (that is, potential deviationists) in universities.

Then the party's line was confirmed by NSDC Secretary Alexei Danilov. And finally, on September 3, a law was submitted to the Verkhovna Rada to abolish the deferment from mobilization for Ukrainians, as it was announced at the beginning, over 30 years old, receiving a second and higher education under martial law.

Who is eligible for a deferment now
Now, according to the law "On mobilization training and mobilization", persons receiving secondary specialized and higher education, plus assistant trainees, graduate students and doctoral students studying full-time, as well as dual form (it provides for employment in parallel with training) are not subject to conscription.

Full-time higher education also includes second higher education full-time. The age of the students does not matter, and if at the beginning of hostilities there were cases of conscription of students, then after a year and a half of the war such cases disappeared.

Explosive growth in the number of contractors
A significant number of people took advantage of the “educational loophole”, and since the beginning of the NWO, the flow of thirsty knowledge has grown so much that Ukrainian universities have increased the number of paid places: at the Lviv Polytechnic, the number of contract workers has grown by 3,000 (from 1,600 people in 2021 to more than 4,600 in 2022 ), and the proportion of men among students - from 57% to 73%.

At the Lviv University of Trade and Economics, the number of male contract workers increased by 50%, at the Ivan Franko National University of Lviv - by 29%. But the real record was set by Chernivtsi National University named after Fedkovych. The number of male contract workers there has grown by 239% , from 740 in 2021 to over 2,500 in 2022.

In principle, such a number of people who want to study for a fee for the educational system of Ukraine is completely atypical : applicants have always strived to get on the budget. It should be noted that admission was facilitated for the contract form of education: the second year it remains possible to enter several dozen specialties (for example, preschool pedagogy, primary education, food technology, woodworking, agronomy, forestry) without a national multi-subject test - it is enough to provide a motivation sheet .

At the same time, the cost of education, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, in 2022 increased insignificantly on average - by only 7.2%, although some universities sharply "raised the price tag": Lviv Catholic University - from 80,000 to 110,000 hryvnias, and at the Kiev-Mohyla Academy ( analogue of the Moscow Higher School of Economics) the cost of education for some specialties for the year "jumped" by a third .

Changes in the age of contract students
In 2021, about 22,000 male students aged 20-29 entered the contract, and in 2022 - already 65,200, that is, more than 40,000 more.

For the age category of 30-39 years, in 2021 there were only about 2,200 contract students, in 2022 - already 30,300, the increase was more than 28,000 people.

There were about 900 contract employees over 40 years old in 2021, and in 2022 there were 15,000 of them, the number of students of this age increased by more than 14,000 .

Growth in the number of undergraduates
In 2022, the number of those wishing to continue their studies after completing the undergraduate program also increased. According to the analytical center of the Grinchenko University, in 2021, 189,500 people graduated from the bachelor's program, 83,000 continued their studies in the master's program. In 2022, out of 174,000 bachelors, more than 150,000 went to the master's program . The procedure for entering the magistracy was also simplified: the foreign language exam and the qualification exam were cancelled.

Outcome
On September 4, the text of the bill introduced by the president's representative appeared on the website of the Verkhovna Rada. Although the press initially talked about the abolition of the deferment from mobilization only for applicants for a second higher education, the document exceeded expectations : it is proposed to abolish the deferment also for graduate students and students who entered the university after reaching the age of 30, even if they did not previously have a higher education, that is, just take and call on all students over 30 years old .

With the abolition of the deferral for graduate students, two points are interesting. The first one is obvious: graduate students-interns are future teachers and the first applicants for scientific degrees. The bill directly states: Ukraine does not need future teachers, young scientists and their Ph.D. dissertations , but people are needed at the forefront.

The second point concerns undergraduates, of which there were 233,000 people in 2021-2022 , and in 2023 it is unlikely that the majority of bachelors considered their education completed, so this number, even taking into account those who have already graduated, has not changed so much. In a year, if the current law is adopted, without any additional effort, all those who have just reached the age of 30 will find themselves without the possibility of saving themselves by deferment by enrolling in graduate school. But they will be able to make a replenishment at the front.

Having in hand the numbers for contract students for 2021-2022 and the statements of university representatives that the trends of last year continued in 2023, and the number of contract applicants in 2020 is not much different from 2021, we can roughly calculate by how much the proposed cancellation of the deferment will increase strength of the Armed Forces. The mobilization of all students over 30 who enrolled in 2020-2023 will add approximately 96,200 people to the Armed Forces of Ukraine at once .

Keeping in mind the practice of wave-like mobilizations in Ukraine, the next wave will capture and carry out the front of students in the age category of 20-29 years old , which in the period 2020-2023 for contract training is approximately 174,400 people , and even more with students on a budget. And all of them are also very useful at the front. Most likely, such a number will be divided into two batches that are more convenient for processing, so we should expect the introduction of a couple more laws .

https://rybar.ru/obrazovanie-i-mobiliza ... a-ukraine/

Google Translator

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Ukraine’s ‘Biggest Arms Supplier’ Orchestrated 2014 Maidan Massacre
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on SEPTEMBER 7, 2023
Kit Klarenberg

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Once denounced by Zelensky as a “criminal,” gun runner Serhiy Pashinksy has become the top private supplier of arms to Ukraine. Eyewitness testimony has fingered Pashinsky as the architect of a bloody false flag operation which propelled the 2014 Maidan coup and plunged the country into civil war.

Years before emerging as Kiev’s top private weapons trafficker, ex-legislator Serhiy Pashinsky played a key role in the 2014 US-backed coup which toppled Ukraine’s democratically-elected president and set the stage for a devastating civil war. Though the notoriously corrupt former Ukrainian parliamentarian was condemned by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “criminal” as recently as 2019, a lengthy exposé by the New York Times has now identified Pashinsky as the Ukrainian government’s “biggest private arms supplier.”

Perhaps predictably, the report makes no mention of evidence implicating Pashinsky in the 2014 massacre of 70 anti-government protesters in Kiev’s Maidan Square, an incident which pro-Western forces used to consummate their coup d’etat against then-President Viktor Yanukovych.

In an August 12 report on Ukraine’s new weapons-sourcing strategy, the New York Times alleged that “out of desperation,” Kiev had no option but to adopt increasingly amoral tactics. The shift, they say, has driven up prices of lethal imports at an exponential rate, “and added layer upon layer of profit-making” for the benefit of unscrupulous speculators like Pashinsky.

According to the Times, the strategy is simple: Pashinksy “buys and sells grenades, artillery shells and rockets through a trans-European network of middlemen,” then “sells them, then buys them again and sells them once more”:

“With each transaction, prices rise – as do the profits of Mr. Pashinsky’s associates – until the final buyer, Ukraine’s military, pays the most,” the Times explained, adding that while using multiple brokers may technically be legal, “it is a time-tested way to inflate profits.”

As the seemingly endless supply of cash from Western taxpayers provides a bonanza for arms manufacturers such as Raytheon and Northrop Grumman, it similarly benefits war profiteers like Pashinsky. His company, Ukrainian Armored Technology, “reported its best year ever last year, with sales totaling more than $350 million” — a whopping 12,500% increase from its $2.8 million in sales the year before the war.

Pashinsky is not the only racketeer benefitting from the elimination of anti-corruption measures in wartime Ukraine. Several suppliers previously placed on an official blacklist after they “ripped off the military” are now free to sell again, according to the Times investigation. The outlet downplayed this as an unfortunate, but ultimately necessary measure.

“In the name of rushing weapons to the front line, leaders have resurrected figures from Ukraine’s rough-and-tumble past and undone, at least temporarily, years of anticorruption [sic] policies,” the Times asserted, describing “the re-emergence of figures like Mr. Pashinsky” as “one reason the American and British governments are buying ammunition for Ukraine rather than simply handing over money”:

“European and American officials are loath to discuss Mr. Pashinsky, for fear of playing into Russia’s narrative that Ukraine’s government is hopelessly corrupt and must be replaced.”

However, even the seemingly critical Times report overlooks a key aspect of Pashinsky’s unsavory biography. Conspicuously absent from the coverage was any explanation of his role in carrying out the infamous massacre of anti-government activists and police officers in Kiev’s Maidan Square in late February 2014.

A defining moment in the US-orchestrated overthrow of Ukraine’s elected government, the death of 70 at the hands of mysterious snipers triggered an avalanche of international outrage that led directly to the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych. Even today, these killings officially remain unsolved.

However, firsthand testimony by individuals who claimed to have helped carry out the false flag attack suggest Kiev’s most prolific gun runner was intimately involved in the grisly affair.

Maidan massacre organizer ‘takes no prisoners’

In November 2017, Italy’s Matrix TV channel published eyewitness accounts by three Georgians who say they were ordered to kill protesters by Mamuka Mamulashvili. Then the top-ranking military aide to Georgian president Mikhael Saakashvili, Mamulashvili later founded the infamous mercenary brigade known as the Georgian Legion, whose fighters were widely condemned after they published a gruesome video of themselves gleefully executing unarmed and bound Russian soldiers in April 2022.

The documentary, “Ukraine: The Hidden Truth,” features an Italian journalist’s interviews with three Georgian fighters allegedly sent to orchestrate the coup. All described Pashinsky as a key organizer and executor of the Maidan massacre, even alleging the corrupt arms dealers provided weapons and selected specific targets. The film also featured footage of him personally evacuating a shooter from the Square, after they had been caught with a rifle and a scope by protesters and surrounded.

One of the Georgian fighters recalled how he and his two associates arrived in Kiev in January, “to arrange provocations to push the police to charge the crowd.” For almost a month, however, “there were not many weapons around,” and “molotov [cocktails], shields and sticks were used to the maximum.”

This changed around mid-February, they said, when Mamualashvili personally visited them alongside a US soldier named Brian Christopher Boyenger, a former officer and sniper in the 101st Airborne Division, who personally gave them orders they “had to follow.”

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A documentary by Italy’s Matrix channel contains eyewitness testimony implicating an American military instructor in Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan massacre.
Pashinky then personally moved them along with sniper rifles and ammunition to buildings overlooking Maidan Square, they alleged. At that point, Mamualashvili reportedly insisted that “we have to start shooting, so much, to sow some chaos.”

So it was that the Georgian fighters “started shooting two or three shots at a time” into the crowd below, having been ordered to “shoot the Berkut, the police, and the demonstrators, no matter what.” Once the killing was over, Boyenger moved to the Donbas front to fight in the ranks of the Georgian Legion, which Mamulashvili commands to this day.

In the meantime, Ukrainian journalist Volodymyr Boiko, who headed the civic council of the Prosecutor General Office of Ukraine after Maidan, has alleged that in order to obscure his role, Pashinsky personally hand-picked the figures leading the official investigation into the massacre, and even bribed the prosecutor who headed it.

Despite these shocking claims, Pashinsky’s involvement in the Maidan massacre has never been officially investigated, let alone punished, and his most recent experiences with the Ukrainian judicial system suggest it is unlikely to be heavily scrutinized by officials in Kiev. While a member of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, he was arrested for shooting and wounding a pedestrian in a traffic-related dispute, but was ultimately acquitted in 2021.

When Israeli journalists confronted Pashinsky about his role in the Maidan massacre, the arms dealer warned that they would be tracked down in their home country, where his associates would “tear them apart.” They could be forgiven for believing it was not an idle threat; there is a troubling tendency for Pashinky’s detractors to end up viciously beaten or shot dead in the street.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/09/ ... -massacre/

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The US Announces 1 Billion in New Aid for Ukraine

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Evolution of the U.S. military aid to Ukraine. | Photo: X/ @ukraine_map

Published 7 September 2023 (10 hours 57 minutes ago)

Washington also provided a US$203-million funding for support to transparency and accountability of institutions.


U.S. Department of State announced US$1 billion in new aid for Ukraine on Wednesday while Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a surprise visit to Kiev to show support.

The State Department said that the new package includes an additional drawdown of up to US$175 million worth of weapons and equipment from the Department of Defense's inventories.

What's notable among the capabilities in this round of security assistance is the 120mm depleted uranium tank ammunition for Abrams tanks, according to a list issued by the Pentagon. This is the first time Washington sends Kiev this type of ammunition, which is radioactive.

Also in the package are air defense system components, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems for HIMARS, munitions, ammunition, and communications systems.

The United States also committed US$100 million through the State Department's Foreign Military Financing program to support Ukraine's longer-term military requirements.


Regarding humanitarian assistance, a total of US$206 million will go toward providing critical support including water, food, and shelter for those in Ukraine or fleeing the country due to the conflict with Russia. There will be US$90.5 million in humanitarian assistance for the specific purpose of demining.

Following the recent corruption scandals in the Ukrainian Defense Ministry that saw the replacement of the country's defense minister, the U.S. also provided a US$203-million funding "for support to transparency and accountability of institutions, bolstering key reform efforts related to anti-corruption, rule of law and the justice sector," the State Department said.

For the first time, the United States in this aid package transferred US$5.4 million it seized from Russian oligarchs "to support veteran reintegration and rehabilitation" in Ukraine, the department said. The transfer of the assets was authorized by U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland in May.

The above announcement came on the same day Blinken made an unannounced visit to Kiev in a show of support. It is the most high-profile visit by a U.S. official to Ukraine since President Joe Biden visited in February.

While in Kiev, Blinken met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/The ... -0003.html

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SEYMOUR HERSH’S INTEL SOURCES SAY PUTIN BEHIND PRIGOZHIN’S KILLING
SEPTEMBER 7, 2023 2 COMMENTS

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Seymour Hersh just dropped a new article at Substack. You can find it here, but it’s behind a paywall, so I will summarize the main points below.

The main assertion of the article is that a US intelligence source of Hersh’s has stated that Putin was behind Prigozhin’s death and the reason was that Prigozhin was potentially provoking NATO and that was too reckless and unacceptable for Moscow:

“Prigozhin was provoking NATO and he had to go,” the US intelligence official said. “The last thing Putin wanted to do was to give NATO further cause to shelve its growing doubts about the endless financing of [Ukraine President Volodymyr] Zelensky.”

So, the official said, “Putin did it.” Prigozhin had become too dangerous.


The intelligence source also reveals that the plane that blew up with Prigozhin and some of his closet associates onboard was suddenly and inexplicably pulled in for service the day before the doomed flight.

It was then, the intelligence official said, that bombs with delayed fuses bombs were placed in the wheelbase. The bombs were set to explode after the wheels were retracted.

The explanation for how the plane was downed sounds plausible. However, the source does not provide any evidence that it was Putin who actually ordered or approved it. The source provides a potential motive but motive alone doesn’t prove anything. Prigozhin had made many enemies who also had motives. I’m not saying it’s impossible but I still harbor some skepticism that Putin would do such a thing right in the middle of the BRICS summit, taking attention away from the constructive strides Russia and the rest of the BRICS countries are making toward a multipolar world. Why put a black mark on your own best PR?

I welcome readers’ thoughts in the comments.

Some additional interesting nuggets from the Hersh article include the claim by Hersh’s source (presumably from the CIA) that the US/UK media reporting on the progress of the war has been terribly inaccurate and is far too credulous of what Kiev says:

“The goal of Russia’s first line of defense was not to stop the Ukrainian offense,” the official told me, “but to slow it down so if there was a Ukrainian advance, Russian commanders could bring in reserves to fortify the line. There is no evidence that Ukrainian forces have gotten past the first line. The American press is doing anything but honest reporting on the failure thus far of the offense.

“What happened to the use of cluster bombs by Ukraine? Weren’t they supposed to open the door? And Zelensky is now claiming Ukraine had hypersonic bombs. He’s been bullshitting us like this as he always does. Where are the engineers and scientists manufacturing them? In a bunker somewhere? Or in Kiev? He’s pretending—stalling as long as he can?


The source suggests that military intelligence provides similarly poor information that is being used by the White House but that more accurate intelligence exists but is somehow prevented from reaching decision makers in the executive branch:

“Here is the key issue,” the official told me. “This kind of reporting from the military intelligence community is going to the White House. There are other views,” he said, obviously referring to the Central Intelligence Agency, that do not reach the Oval Office. “What is going to happen? Will we be supporting Ukraine as long as it takes? It’s not like we are fighting the Führer in Germany or the Emperor of Japan. The other day former vice president [Mike] Pence said that if we don’t defend Zelensky in Ukraine, Russia will come after Poland next. Is that the White House’s policy?”

The source also told Hersh that the new Defense Minister of Ukraine, Rustem Umyerov, is even more corrupt that the one who just left (Oleksiy Reznikov), but interestingly Umyerov was not on CIA director William Burns’ list of corrupt officials provided to Kiev during a visit in January.

The last interesting comment by the intelligence source was that Putin is focused on running a war that he sees as critical to his nation’s security and doesn’t care what the American public thinks of him.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/

Who cares? Good riddens. Definitely plausible, but you'd expect the Kremlin to keep it's hands plausibly clean. Revenge shot by Russian Aerospace? They were mighty pissed that there was no immediate consequences for their loss of 4 aircraft and 15 personnel due to the mutiny. A wink and a nod? LIHOP? Other suspects: Ukraine, which had promoted the gangster as public enemy #2, USA, or France, for his role in Africa, other oligarchs, who he'd been shitting on?
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Sat Sep 09, 2023 11:58 am

Cluster bombs and morale
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 09/09/2023

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On this week's propaganda visit to Kiev, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed something that Reuters had leaked several days ago: the United States will send depleted uranium ammunition to Ukraine for use in Abrams tanks. whose arrival at the front is approaching. Kiev will have, for use on the front, this more than controversial ammunition, which has been accused of causing all kinds of diseases and malformations in fetuses in places like Iraq, where it has been used by the United States and the United Kingdom, which also has sent depleted uranium shells to Ukraine. Curiously, little has been said about its use until now. What's more, in its tweet announcing the American shipment, The Kyiv IndependentHe was referring to “the first time that ammunition is going to be sent to the country.” Propaganda exalting the results of its use and the general silence on British depleted uranium once again raises the question of whether the huge explosion that occurred last May due to a Russian attack on a military warehouse in the Khmelnitsky oblast It contained that ammunition as Russia stated when commenting on the attack. In any case, the announcement by the United States, together with the imminent arrival of the American Abrams tanks, has revived the idea of ​​miracle weapons , an excessive hope that a type of equipment or ammunition will be the turning point in the development of the battle.

The trend observed on the front, with constant attacks and a Russian defense that until now has acted reliably, does not encourage us to think that one type of ammunition is going to decisively change the course of the battle, as has been demonstrated and the Leopard or the Challenger. The greater quantity or power of weaponry causes greater destruction and possibly greater casualties and forces the opponent to reinforce his defenses. In this case, after months of preparation for an offensive that Ukraine had already announced from the beginning of planning, the Russian fortifications have proven to be prepared to withstand weeks of pressure. kyiv's troops, with their American weapons and tactics, have needed twelve weeks to pierce the first line of Russian defense at one point,

Equally controversial, and prohibited by a large part of Ukraine's allies who have participated in sending financing and weapons for the current offensive, is the previous wunderwaffe delivered by Washington: cluster bombs. “Now, two months after the United States sent an initial package of ammunition to Ukraine, to ensure its troops do not run out of ammunition, three US officials said, the Biden administration is planning to send more and soon,” he says this week The New York Times in an article that seeks to address the results of the use of this type of weaponry on the front. With the first package of cluster munitions already used in front positions, Ukraine needs its replacement.

The Western shipment of cluster bombs must have caused a serious controversy, not in vain the convention that prohibits their use - which neither Ukraine, Russia nor the United States have ratified, although a large part of the countries on the planet have - was signed in Ottawa, with Canada as its main driving country. However, the common war against Russia and the difficulties that Ukraine is suffering in advancing on Russian positions have made any measure justified. In this context, articles such as that of The New York Times, which include a single minimally skeptical opinion on the effectiveness of cluster bombs on the Zaporozhie front, not only do they not deal with the consequences that the presence of this type of weapons will cause in the future, but they can practically be read as a report in defense of its use.

The warnings of Hun Sen fell on deaf ears, whose country, Cambodia, still suffers the consequences of US bombings with this type of weapons more than half a century ago. In the war against Russia, any measure is analyzed only by its efficiency against the enemy, not by the consequences it will cause for the civilian population. What's more, practically every mention of the civilian population is precisely to insist that they are not being affected. That is one of the arguments of the article published by The New York Times, profoundly legitimizing the Ukrainian - although not Russian - use of cluster bombs. The logic starts from taking into account only the current moment and only the cluster bombs delivered by the United States, which according to the sources of the article, have been used only against Russian troops on the front line and not against the civilian population. The intensity of the battle, the concentration of forces and the immense difficulties of Ukraine, not to break the front, but to reach the first line of Russian defense, make this statement credible.

However, even accepting that US cluster munitions are not being used against civilians, that information is only partial. The Donetsk People's Republic has shown evidence of the use of cluster munitions, of Soviet, non-Western origin, against the civilian population, accusations ignored by the Western press now and also in the past. The New York Times attemptto present Ukraine as a reliable force whose word can be trusted forgets that the Ukrainian use of cluster munitions in urban areas is not only occurring now, but their use dates back to the first months of the Donbass conflict, as the own media picked up at that time. The lack of medium and long-term memory and the general erasure of everything related to Donbass makes it conveniently easy to ignore those details. In October 2014, The New York Times reported on Human Rights Watch's accusations against the use of cluster munitions in urban areas, which the organization said could constitute war crimes.

In addition to this questionable concern for the civilian population, the justification for sending cluster bombs to Ukraine has three main theses. The first is its efficiency against Russian troops. And although the article mentions that not all commanders are so optimistic, the article bases this argument on attributing the capture of the town of Urozhainoe to this ammunition. “They are super efficient,” says a Ukrainian marine who participated in said battle. Of course, the media clarifies that the most widespread opinion among Ukrainian commanders is that “cluster bombs are used primarily in situations in which the enemy infantry is exposed and are quite ineffective against Russian fortified positions - line after line of trenches. and bunkers -, which are the main obstacle to the counteroffensive." In reality, the battle for Urozhainoe cannot be the basis of any argument, since it is not part of that line of defense that Ukraine is trying to break. The absence of fortifications and the significant attrition of the troops fighting there, for example, the Vostok battalion, whose soldiers have been fighting since 2014, forced the withdrawal instead of fighting to the last soldier for a position that is not strategic. It is representative that this battle is used as an example of the use and efficiency of cluster bombs.

The second argument is that of morality. Practically since the beginning of the Russian military intervention, the idea of ​​the low morale of Russian troops has been widespread in the media regardless of the situation. With morale as reasoning, The New York Times once again quotes the Marine who participated in the battle for Urozhainoe claiming that “when our guys see how we use them against the enemy, their morale goes up.”

Much more important is the third argument: that of the enormous ammunition needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the use of which exceeds the replenishment capabilities of its Western partners. The need to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian and the absolute refusal to seek a negotiated solution to the war implies the maintenance of a war whose intensity far exceeds any conflict in which NATO has participated in recent decades. Hence, it is necessary to justify and normalize the use of an ammunition prohibited in a large part of Ukraine's allied countries - which have already accepted without excessive complaints the reality in which they find themselves - and known precisely for causing serious consequences for the civilian population. both during the conflict and in subsequent decades.

That is the ultimate goal of the article published by The New York Times , which indicates that “US officials estimate that Ukrainian forces have been firing up to 8,000 rounds of ammunition a day, including hundreds of cluster bombs. Taken together, that could lead to cluster bombs becoming what George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, predicted could become a "permanent element within the Ukrainian arsenal." »”.

Perfectly normalized by the prestigious press, which blindly trusts in the guarantee that they are being used only against Russian troops - although their efficiency has been greater in the case of a battle led by a battalion formed from former members of the troops of the Ministry of the Interior of Ukraine - cluster bombs are here to stay. Gone are the years in which, like anti-personnel mines, which in this war Ukraine has spread indiscriminately throughout the urban center of Donetsk, cluster munitions were condemned and their eradication was demanded. The war against Russia justifies everything, including condemning the Russian use of cluster bombs while defending, tooth and nail, their Ukrainian use.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/09/09/las-b ... more-28100

Google Translator

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Chronicle of the special military operation for September 8, 2023
September 8, 2023
Rybar

During the day, Russian troops attacked enemy infrastructure facilities. They were amazed: the workshop of the Motor Sich plant in Zaporozhye , the port infrastructure in the Odessa region and the police building in Krivoy Rog .

In the Soledar direction, after a lull, the Armed Forces of Ukraine became more active in areas near Bakhmut . The enemy is trying to advance under Kleshcheevka . At the same time, "the fog of war" remains to the south of the settlement.

In the Vremievsky sector, Ukrainian formations do not weaken the onslaught on Novodonetskoye . The RF Armed Forces strike at strongholds in the forest belts near Urozhayny . At the same time, the enemy is building up forces to continue the offensive in the direction of Staromlynovka and Priyutnoye .

In the Zaporizhia direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to fight in the Rabotino area , which are located in the "gray zone". However, the greatest activity on the part of Ukrainian formations was recorded in the area of ​​Verbovoye . In addition, units of the 80th Airborne Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were spotted on the site.

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Russian Armed Forces strikes on the Motor Sich plant in Zaporozhye

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This afternoon, Russian troops carried out at least four missile strikes on the helicopter shop of the Motor Sich plant in Zaporizhia , a site that had already been targeted by the Russian Armed Forces two days earlier. This time, from the footage from eyewitnesses, it can be determined that two hits fell on the territory of the workshop, the rest - on the industrial zone to the east. At the same time, it is difficult to identify the exact nature of the damage based on materials from open sources.

Coordinates:
Arrival area - 47.852063, 35.244459
Place of eyewitness shooting - 47.856156, 35.240497

In addition to Zaporozhye, the port infrastructure in the Odessa region and the police building in Krivoy Rog also came under fire from Russian troops today .

Strike of the Russian Armed Forces on the police building in Krivoy Rog

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In the morning, the RF Armed Forces launched several strikes on targets in the territory controlled by the Kyiv regime. One of the explosions took place in Krivoy Rog in the Dnepropetrovsk region.

Judging by the video from the place of arrival, the rocket hit the city department of the Security Police. According to a statement by local authorities, one person died and 60 were injured. On one of the frames you can see the evacuation of the victim in military uniform.

In recent months, the buildings of the power structures of Ukraine from time to time become the targets of Russian attacks: for example, over the summer, the Russian Armed Forces attacked the SBU offices in Sumy , as well as Dnepropetrovsk and Lvov .

The situation on the front line and the fighting

Positional clashes near Kupyansk continue in the Starobelsky direction : along the entire line of contact, the parties are conducting artillery duels and mutual reconnaissance. In the meantime, in the Svatovsky sector, Russian troops thwarted an attempt by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to advance in the area of ​​Novoegorovka , and next enemy attacks were repelled near Kremennaya .

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On the Soledar direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing near Kleshcheevka. In early September, Ukrainian formations, after a long lull, intensified in areas near Bakhmut , especially on the Ozaryanovka - Kleshcheevka line . The situation is most strange south of Kleshcheevka, where the "fog of war" has formed. According to some reports, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to dislodge Russian troops from Andreevka and approach the railway, according to others, the front line did not change in a week. In fact, the status of the settlement is still unknown.

In the area of ​​Kleshcheevka itself, the RF Armed Forces are undertaking attacks to regain previously lost positions. Russian troops also carry out artillery strikes against identified targets, including 152-mm Krasnopol corrected munitions, and VKS aircraft hit the front line. At the same time, the transfer of enemy troops to Konstantinovka is observed : earlier, foreign mercenaries were seen in the city, and additional medical personnel arrived there a few days ago. Indirectly, this may indicate the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for more active offensive operations in the Soledar direction.


In the Donetsk direction, fighting continues in the vicinity of Avdiivka and the Maryinka area. According to some reports, the enemy attacked in the area of ​​​​Experimental-Water, but had no success. In Marinka, there are clashes in the western districts of the settlement. However, only one name remained from the city - all the buildings are badly destroyed.

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On the Vremievsky sector , Ukrainian formations continue the onslaught on Novodonetskoye , advancing on it simultaneously from several sides. In the morning, they attacked the positions of the 37th motorized rifle brigade of the RF Armed Forces with the help of two infantry fighting vehicles. During the battle, Russian fighters first destroyed several members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and then disrupted the evacuation by knocking out one armored vehicle from a tank. A few hours later, for the third time in three days, the enemy tried to cross the Shaitanka River and strike east of Novodonetsk, but preemptive artillery fire forced him to abandon these plans.

Under Harvest , the RF Armed Forces are striking strongholds in forest belts, which were previously occupied by units of the 37th and 38th brigades of the Marine Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and near Novomayorsky , they worked out from heavy flamethrower systems. The total Ukrainian formations from these raids in manpower exceeded 30 people. At the same time, the enemy continues to accumulate forces to continue the offensive at the same pace. In particular, the Armed Forces of Ukraine made up for the losses of four assault groups of the 35th infantry regiment with a total strength of 40 people, and are also completing the restoration of the combat capability of other units for an attack in the direction of Staromlynovka . At the same time, Ukrainian formations prepared assault groups of the 1st mechanized battalion of the 23rd OMB for attacks on Priyutnoe, who were tasked with reaching the northern outskirts of the settlement.

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In the Orekhov sector, the enemy does not abandon his attempts to enter Rabotino . In the morning, Ukrainian formations again tried to advance in the Rabotino area with the support of armored vehicles. Russian troops repulsed the attack, and according to the Archangel of the Spetsnaz, the enemy lost one tank. Rabotino itself remains in a no man's zone: the enemy is not trying to gain a foothold there with large forces due to the fact that the settlement has actually been demolished. Small groups of manpower entering there immediately come under fire from the artillery of the RF Armed Forces.

In the area of ​​Verbovoye, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are much more active and are trying to penetrate the defenses in order to reach the village itself. Twice the enemy infantry tried to approach the Russian positions, but retreated under artillery attacks. The Russian Armed Forces are also supported by the aviation of the Aerospace Forces. Also, units of the 80th Specialized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were seen on the front line , parts of which arrived in the Zaporozhye direction in mid-August. Apparently, they, together with the 71st Jaeger Brigade, will support the 82nd Airborne Brigade, which suffered significant losses in the battles near Verbov in a few weeks.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

Ukrainian formations attacked the building of the Silicon El microelectronics plant in Bryansk with a drone , where, judging by the video, a fire broke out on one of the floors. Baza reports that the fire started on the 5th floor of the 8-storey administrative building. This is the second attack on the plant in the last two days.

In addition, the governor of the region announced the interception of one UAV on approach to the city, another device was suppressed by electronic warfare. As a result of the fall of fragments in one of the buildings of the railway station, the glazing was damaged. Emergency services are on site.

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Border settlements of the Belgorod region were under attack . The Armed Forces of Ukraine shelled the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka three times a day . Also, local sources reported on the shelling of the village Dronovka . In the Valuysky urban district, the air defense system worked - an enemy drone was shot down.


On the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Donbass from Nazi invaders, Ukrainian nationalists continued massive shelling of settlements in the Donetsk agglomeration . Donetsk , Yasinovataya , Gorlovka and Makeevka were under fire from barrel and rocket artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine .

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A man was wounded in Petrovsky district of Donetsk, a woman was killed in Kirovsky district, and two women were wounded in Kuibyshevsky. In Aleksandrovka, a man was blown up by a mine.

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Artillery terror continues on the left bank of the Kherson region . Ukrainian formations shelled Kakhovka , New Kakhovka , Dniproany , Cossack Camps , Krynki and Podstepne . Residential buildings were damaged.

Political events
About Cuban human trafficking and what does the NWO have to do with it?

Colleagues from the channel Sex, cartels, Frida Kahlo have prepared an entertaining material about the next information stuffing from "objective" sources of information. Narratives began to spread in the Western media that the Russian authorities, with the help of human traffickers, were recruiting Cubans and forcing them to fight in Ukraine .

Similar conclusions are proposed to be drawn on the basis of a statement by the Cuban Foreign Ministry, which very carefully reported that a network of human trafficking was revealed , operating from Russia for recruitment into the armed forces in order to participate in military operations on the territory of Ukraine. At the moment, work is underway to neutralize and eliminate this criminal mechanism. The Cuban authorities also added that they are against mercenaries for the war on either side, and the Caribbean state is not part of the conflict in Ukraine.

At the same time, Reuters journalists suggest recalling stories when Cuban citizens signed contracts with the Russian Armed Forces - however, in the end, the customers have not decided whether they are forcing Cubans to fight with machine guns at their heads, or they promise Russian citizenship in exchange .

We remind you that stories about the fact that Cubans are forced to heal, fight and kill by force already smell of mothballs and were invented in the same White House, which should have been renamed White Pillars long ago. One of the most popular versions circulated by the American media is that the famous Cuban doctors are actually engaged in military intelligence. Of course, not just like that, but because the Cuban authorities threaten them with the murder of their relatives.


This story was picked up by the Armed Forces of Ukraine . They call here to die with dignity for the freedom of Cuba, and not as invaders of Ukrainian land. At the same time, they mention that the Cubans, because of their dictatorial power, have already found themselves in isolation. Given the logic of these slogans, is it proposed to fight the Americans? Or are we misunderstanding something?

Havana informs that 17 people have been arrested so far - three of them worked directly in Cuba. The other 14 people have already admitted that they agreed to participate under an individual and voluntary agreement, including for a monetary reward or a Russian residence permit. It is also reported that the detainees were looking for persons with a criminal record and comrades from dysfunctional families. At the same time, there is no clear information about who oversaw the network from the territory of Russia. And no one directly says that the Cubans fought on the Russian side (which, judging by the information about the residence permit, is actively implied).

There is no point in arguing with the fact that the Cubans have their own (and very good) PMCs. But the prospect of recruiting these comrades by the Russian services looks very doubtful. Let's start with the fact that nothing is known about any decisions on the participation of any of the foreign volunteers in the SVO. And it’s not even about 14 Cuban mercenaries (according to the Ukrainian version, there are from 200 to 400 of them), but about those who get into the thick of things much easier and where there are much more willing people (you can remember the same Syrians). So, one should not rule out the option of some private initiative, within the framework of which the Cubans could well end up on Ukrainian territory, but by no means to achieve the goals set by the NWO.

About Ukrainian grain in Poland

Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki issued an ultimatum on the import of grain from Ukraine to the EU.

“ I said clearly back in July after talking with four other countries that border Ukraine: we will not allow the reopening of agricultural markets, regardless of the decision of the European Union ,” said Mateusz Morawiecki.

According to the politician, Poland does not object to transit through its territory, but to the destabilization of the national agricultural market.

“ Dear farmers! Either the European Commission will fulfill our wish, listen to our voice and from September 15 further introduce a ban on the import of four types of grain into the territory of the European Union, or we will implement this step ourselves. Once again, I say clearly: for us, the most important thing is the interest of the Polish farmer. Therefore, either the European Commission will decide next Wednesday on a further import ban, or we ourselves will extend this import ban on the territory of the Republic of Poland ,” Morawiecki specified.

Earlier, the European Commission announced measures to import some grain crops from Ukraine, aimed at eliminating logistical difficulties.

About the UN grain deal proposal

UN Secretary General António Guterres sent a personal letter to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov with four proposals to extend the grain deal. The politician proposed the lifting of EU sanctions for Rosselkhozbank through the creation of a subsidiary connected to SWIFT. In addition, the UN proposes to insure Russian cargo ships against attacks from Ukraine in the Black and Azov Seas, as well as unfreeze the assets of Russian fertilizer companies. At the same time, the Russian Federation must provide a list of specific accounts, and companies must contact the relevant national EU authorities. The fourth point is the permission for Russian ships to moor in European ports by simplifying the procedure for issuing permits.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

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UKRAINE CREATED UNIT THAT DEALS WITH POLITICAL ASSASSINATIONS
6 Sep 2023, 11:51 am.

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Since 2015 this unit has shot, hanged and poisoned all those who are considered "collaborators" of Russia (Photo: File)

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in 2015 created a unit that deals with political assassinations, the former head of the agency, Valentin Nalyvaichenko, and several officers of the agency's 5th Counterintelligence Directorate told The Economist .

In the interview with the English weekly, Nalyvaichenko confessed that the Ukrainian leadership had decided that it was not enough to imprison those who disagreed with Kiev on the autonomy of the Donbass regions: "We reluctantly came to the conclusion that people had to be destroyed ", he said, so that since then they have shot, hanged and poisoned all those who are considered "collaborators".

As told by the officers, not all employees in this department are happy with what they do. One of them, on condition of anonymity, explained that the operations they were carrying out were intended to impress President Vladimir Zelenski, and not to solve any strategic problem. He is also concerned that the assassination campaign is guided only by the impulse to kill and not by standing up for what they believe is right for the country.

The most controversial operations are believed to be authorized by the President of Ukraine, although other decisions are delegated to the SBU leadership level. It is also reported that a Special Operations Forces group was recently created that is pushing for more authority to carry out actions inside Russia.

According to the cited officials, it was this department of the SBU that participated in the terrorist attack in which Daria Dugina , daughter of Aleksandr Dugin, a well-known Russian Eurasianist political philosopher and supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin, died.

https://misionverdad.com/ucrania-creo-u ... -politicos

Google Translator

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The US Announces 1 Billion in New Aid for Ukraine

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Evolution of the U.S. military aid to Ukraine. | Photo: X/ @ukraine_map

Published 7 September 2023 (10 hours 57 minutes ago)

Washington also provided a US$203-million funding for support to transparency and accountability of institutions.


U.S. Department of State announced US$1 billion in new aid for Ukraine on Wednesday while Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a surprise visit to Kiev to show support.

The State Department said that the new package includes an additional drawdown of up to US$175 million worth of weapons and equipment from the Department of Defense's inventories.

What's notable among the capabilities in this round of security assistance is the 120mm depleted uranium tank ammunition for Abrams tanks, according to a list issued by the Pentagon. This is the first time Washington sends Kiev this type of ammunition, which is radioactive.

Also in the package are air defense system components, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems for HIMARS, munitions, ammunition, and communications systems.

The United States also committed US$100 million through the State Department's Foreign Military Financing program to support Ukraine's longer-term military requirements.


Regarding humanitarian assistance, a total of US$206 million will go toward providing critical support including water, food, and shelter for those in Ukraine or fleeing the country due to the conflict with Russia. There will be US$90.5 million in humanitarian assistance for the specific purpose of demining.

Following the recent corruption scandals in the Ukrainian Defense Ministry that saw the replacement of the country's defense minister, the U.S. also provided a US$203-million funding "for support to transparency and accountability of institutions, bolstering key reform efforts related to anti-corruption, rule of law and the justice sector," the State Department said.

For the first time, the United States in this aid package transferred US$5.4 million it seized from Russian oligarchs "to support veteran reintegration and rehabilitation" in Ukraine, the department said. The transfer of the assets was authorized by U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland in May.

The above announcement came on the same day Blinken made an unannounced visit to Kiev in a show of support. It is the most high-profile visit by a U.S. official to Ukraine since President Joe Biden visited in February.

While in Kiev, Blinken met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/The ... -0003.html

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SEPTEMBER 8, 2023 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Ice cracking sounds on frozen lake of US-Russia relations

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India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar (L) met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Jakarta, September 6, 2023

Any longtime observer of Russian politics would know that the state of play in the Russian-American tango is best assessed from subplots, often obscure and unnoticed, away from its amphitheatre where gladiators cross swords. Therefore, two alleys on Ukraine crisis need to be explored.

One is the meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Indian counterpart S. Jaishankar in Jakarta on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit and the other the unannounced arrival of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Kiev. Both events happened on Wednesday. The cypher traffic between Jakarta, Kiev, Moscow and Washington would have been pretty heavy during the past 48 hours.

The Russian readout on Lavrov’s meeting with Jaishankar said that the two ministers “exchanged views on the most pressing issues of bilateral relations and international issues… A mutual desire to increase coordination in multilateral formats, primarily at the UN, as well as within the SCO, BRICS and the G20, was emphasised.”

Evidently, what warranted the meeting was the feverish Indian attempt to work out a formulation on Ukraine for the G20 Declaration that would enable Modi government to claim a diplomatic triumph.

Last week, Lavrov warned that “There will be no general [G20] declaration on behalf of all members if our position is not reflected.” But Jaishankar would know that an axiom of Russian diplomacy is, “Never say never”.

It seems unlikely that Moscow will stand in the way of Modi holding a trophy when the G20 concludes on Sunday. For President Biden too, a successful Modi becomes a more effective partner in the Indo-Pacific.

In fact, the White House announcement highlighted that “While in New Delhi, President Biden will also commend Prime Minister Modi’s leadership of the G20 and reaffirm the US commitment to the G20 as the premier forum of economic cooperation, including by hosting it in 2026.”

Some compromise formula on Ukraine may still be negotiated. If so, its parameters will be an indicator of the extent to which Moscow and Washington are inclined to bridge their respective interests and expectations.

Meanwhile, on September 6, Blinken embarked on quite an untypical visit to Kiev. There was no fire in his belly. For once, he didn’t threaten Russia or ridicule Putin from Ukrainian soil. Nor did Blinken show much enthusiasm for Kiev’s counteroffensive.

Rather, his focus was on the war’s horrific trail causing human suffering, Ukraine’s post-conflict recovery as a democracy and its economy’s reconstruction. Blinken said repeatedly that he was undertaking the visit on Biden’s instruction. In the presence of President Zelensky, Blinken stated:

“We are determined in the United States to continue to walk side by side with you. And President Biden asked me to come, to reaffirm strongly our support, to ensure that we are maximising the efforts that we’re making and other countries are making for the immediate challenge of the counteroffensive as well as the longer-term efforts to help Ukraine build a force for the future that can deter and defend against any future aggression, but also to work with you and support you as you engage in the critical work of strengthening your democracy, rebuilding your economy.”

Stirring words, but there was no boastful talk of liberating Crimea, carrying the fight into the Russian camp or forcing Russia to vacate the annexed territories and negotiating with Russia only from a position of strength. At Blinken’s joint press availability with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, the latter claimed that they had a “substantive” discussion on providing long-range rockets, ATACMS to Kiev. But Blinken sidestepped the topic.

The most unusual thing about Blinken’s visit was that it spilled over to a second day. This must be the first time Blinken spent a night in Ukraine. Blinken had a rather tight schedule on the first day meeting Kuleba, Zelensky and Prime Minister Denis Shmigal, but the itinerary for the second day [September 7], was left open. Obviously, he came to Kiev for some serious discussions.

Conceivably, Biden could be interested in starting peace talks between Moscow and Kiev now that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed to meet its politico-military objectives, and there are worrisome signs of support waning in America and Europe for the proxy war, while a Russian offensive could deal a knockout punch on Ukraine’s military. Both Russian and western estimates are that close to 65-70,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in these past 3 months alone since Kiev’s “counteroffensive” began.

Meanwhile, in an interesting coincidence, on September 6, Ukraine’s parliament Verkhovna Rada approved the appointment of Rustem Umerov as the new Defence Minister replacing Alexei Reznikov. A Crimean Tatar born in Uzbekistan (USSR), Umerov has no previous military background. But he is trusted by Zelensky and is acceptable to the Americans.

What distinguishes Umerov is that he was a key negotiator at the peace talks with Russia in Istanbul last year in March, which actually resulted in an agreed document (from which Zelensky subsequently retracted under Anglo-American pressure.) Again, he was instrumental in negotiating the Black Sea Grain Initiative (so-called grain deal between Ukraine and Russia) which became operational in July last year at Istanbul. These are straws in the wind that must be duly noted.

On September 7, one day after Umerov’s appointment, the Turkish Defence Ministry announced in Ankara: “We are closely monitoring the events unfolding between Russia and Ukraine, which seriously threaten the security of our region and the entire world. We confirm our readiness to play an active and assisting role in ensuring a ceasefire and a stable peace, as well as provide comprehensive support in alleviating the humanitarian crisis.” Again, it must be carefully noted that the Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler had just returned from Russia as a member of the delegation accompanying President Recep Erdogan to Sochi on Monday.

In yet another coincidence, on September 7, Zaporozhye Region Acting Governor Yevgeny Balitsky (a Kremlin appointee) told TASS out of the blue that Russia and Ukraine need a neutral platform where the two countries can negotiate pragmatic solutions to mutual issues, including prisoner swaps, which would work even as the special military operation continues. Balitsky was responding to a pointed question from TASS about the current possibility of Russia-Ukraine talks. He went on to state that:

“There should be a negotiating platform somewhere — at the level of foreign ministries, at the level of other mediating countries. People are needed who are, unfortunately, disengaged from the situation. They are able to tackle the issue in an objective and pragmatic way, however, there should be a table somewhere where authorised representatives would interact. This will allow [POW] swap issues to be resolved, or, for example, the issue of a moratorium on shelling nuclear power plants. This will benefit everyone, even in war time, no matter how cynical this sounds.

“So, in any case there should be some kind of platform. It could launch the beginning of more extensive talks. And something could grow from this as a result. And, perhaps, we would be able to resolve the task set forth by the president peacefully.”

Make no mistake, Balitsky is a seasoned politician from Melitopol hailing from a military family who served in the Soviet army and had two terms in the Ukrainian parliament since he entered politics in 2004. No doubt, he spoke on instructions from the Kremlin.

By the way, Putin had met Balitsky at the Kremlin two weeks ago. Balitsky’s remarks were carefully timed, and Blinken and his Ukrainian hosts wouldn’t have missed the message he transmitted — that Moscow is open to negotiations.

Even as cracking sounds are audible on the frozen lake of Russian-American relations, what lends enchantment to the view is that both Biden and Lavrov are arriving in Delhi later today for the G20 summit through Sunday.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/ice-cra ... relations/

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Ukraine: Is the USA changing proxies in midstream?

With the counteroffensive proven to be a dead duck, all the ‘friends’ of Ukraine who egged it on to an impossible ‘victory’ are blaming the proxies for losing the war.
Lalkar writers

Thursday 7 September 2023

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Just as the Ukrainians are being used as so much disposable cannon fodder by the imperialists, so foreign mercenaries are used by Nato’s Ukrainian army. Used to swell the ranks for kamikaze assaults on Russian positions, the numbers of their fallen are uncounted and their wounded are left to bleed out until all Ukrainians have been evacuated.

As the fabled Ukrainian ‘counteroffensive’ against Russian forces stutters on with nothing to show for itself save a few terrorist spectaculars (like the drone attack on the Kremlin and drone attacks on the Kerch bridge and a Russian oil tanker) and a mounting death toll, it is proving increasingly difficult to conceal from the world what a disaster for the Ukrainian people has been their leaders’ decision to turn their country into a launchpad for a failing imperialist proxy war against Russia.

Periodic claims that this or that village has passed from Russia to Ukraine are dutifully hailed by western media as marking a “glimmer of hope” or even a “turning point” in the war, only to be quietly dropped days later, making way for the next hyperinflated claims to be churned out by actor-president Volodymyr Zelensky and his PR team.

When the southeastern village of Staromaiorske (a village of only about 200 houses, but said to be of some strategic significance) passed briefly into Ukronazi control, President Zelensky took it upon himself to announce this supposed feat of arms in person. Much was made of the street-fighting prowess of the Ukrainians when pitted against heavy odds. When, a little later, it came to light that the village had already swung back to Russian control, the matter was quietly dropped.

The sober truth is that such protracted and bloody encounters in the ‘grey zone’ between Ukrainian and Russian lines, whilst draining the manpower and materiel available to the Ukronazi forces, have yet to make any real headway against Russia’s formidable defences.

Even the imperialist media are obliged to start reflecting at least some of the truth about the war the west is so visibly losing. Here is Carlotta Gall writing in the New York Times:

“A soldier at a medical post, awaiting evacuation for a concussion, recently described how his battalion had been decimated when it came under Russian artillery and tank fire. His brigade, the 23rd, was one of nine newly-formed, western-trained units prepared and equipped for the counteroffensive. But the brigade, he said, had been thrown into the fight without sufficient artillery support and had been unable to defend themselves against Russian firepower.

“In one battle in which his unit took part, Ukrainian soldiers attacked in ten American-made MaxxPro armoured vehicles, but only one came back, he said. He showed photographs of the damaged vehicles, ripped open and burned out, which he said had been hauled back to a repair base. The soldier declined to give his name for fear of getting into trouble with his superiors. The soldier lost a 22-year-old friend, Stas, in the shelling the day before, he said, adding that in just over a month, his battalion had suffered so many dead and wounded that only ten men remained at the front line. Previously that battalion has had some 400 to 500 men.”

Another told Gall: “We were shot like on a shooting range. A drone was flying above us and correcting the artillery fire.” He explained that their positions were in former Russian positions, hemmed in by minefields, and the Russian forces were able to keep them pinned down and under constant drone surveillance. (Amid the counterattack’s deadly slog, a glimmer of success for Ukraine, 30 July 2023)

For anyone with an internet connection and an inquisitive mind, such stories are hardly a closed book. But the fact that reportage of such candour about the war is now finding its way into the broad mainstream of the respectable bourgeois press speaks volumes about just how badly this imperialist proxy war is really going.

Ukrainian cannon fodder continues to fuel Nato’s proxy war
The Ukrainian people have been used as nothing but cannon fodder for the war against Russia. Whilst in public, fawning lip service is paid to the supposed bravery of the Ukrainian soldiers and the phoney nobility of their ostensible cause, the real attitude of the west to their hirelings is one of complete contempt, regarding them as just so many disposable grunts to be thrown into the front line and urged to fight to the last drop of their Ukrainian blood.

And truth to tell, it is all one to imperialism whether the blood spilt is Ukrainian or Polish or Georgian or Kurdish, just so long as its orders are obeyed and Uncle Sam can wash his hands of them when things get too hot.

Since 24 February 2022, it has been estimated that 11,675 foreign mercenaries from 84 countries have officially arrived in Ukraine to prop up the army, including over 2,600 Poles and 700 Brits. As of 30 June this year, 4,845 foreign mercenaries have been wiped out, including young men from the USA, Canada and the European Union. (Kiev looking for foreign mercenaries after up to 10,000 already killed or escaped, South Front, 10 July 2023)

Some 4,801 mercenaries have been reported to have gone Awol, fleeing the Ukrainian hell hole. Predictably, the contempt with which imperialism regards its own disposable Ukrainian proxies finds an echo in the open contempt the Kiev junta and its army display toward their foreign proxies.

Foreign fighters are used to swell the ranks when kamikaze assaults on Russian positions are attempted. In the bloody aftermath, frontline commanders do not bother to keep track of how many foreigners are killed, and any wounded mercenaries are left to bleed out on the ground until all the Ukrainians have been evacuated.

Unsurprisingly, as news from the front filters through, the Kiev junta is finding it harder to recruit from the usual sources and is obliged to scrape the bottom of the barrel, looking further afield to Iraq, Brazil and Argentina, whilst renewed efforts are underway to recruit more mercenaries from the USA and Canada.

Dumping Ukraine for Poland?
But with the war in Ukraine lost and Nato turning its back on Kiev at the recent Vilnius summit, there are signs that the USA may be preparing to demote the Zelensky gang from number one proxy in the region and keep a close watch on developments around Poland.

In a development that should remind the Kiev junta of the old adage that imperialism has no permanent friends, only permanent interests, relations between ‘allies’ Poland (a Nato member) and Ukraine (not in Nato), are becoming dangerously frayed.

When Ukraine complained about Poland barring Ukraine imports (to protect its own grain business), Warsaw snapped that Kiev should be grateful for all the Polish fighters it is sending over. This snub did not go down well in Kiev. And now questions are being asked as to what exactly the Polish military presence is actually doing on Ukrainian soil.

The official story is that a joint Ukrainian-Polish military unit is in formation in order to preserve the security of western Ukraine. But this is not how Russia is reading the situation – especially as Poland is now building up a formidable force along the Belarus border following a border incident.

On 9 August, Tass reported: “‘Poland is planning to form a joint Polish-Ukrainian military unit ostensibly for security, but with the ulterior motive of occupying western Ukraine,’ Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu said.

“He drew attention to the dangers associated with Poland’s militarisation. ‘There are plans to create a permanent so-called Polish-Ukrainian formation, ostensibly to ensure the security of western Ukraine, but in fact – for the subsequent occupation of this territory,’ he said.

“Shoigu added that Poland has become the main tool of America’s anti-Russian policy. ‘The existing risks are connected with the militarisation of Poland, which has become the main instrument of the anti-Russian policy of the United States. Warsaw has announced its intention to build, as the Poles claim, ‘the most powerful army on the continent’. In this connection, large-scale purchases of weapons from the USA, the UK and south Korea have commenced, including tanks, artillery systems, air defence and anti-aircraft systems and combat aircraft,’ the top defence official pointed out.” (Poland, Ukraine to form joint military unit, says Shoigu)

Now that the counteroffensive is universally understood to be a dead duck, all the ‘friends’ of Ukraine who egged it on to an impossible ‘victory’ are now contemptuously blaming the proxies for losing the war. If Shoigu is right and Poland is emerging as the main tool of America’s drive to war against Russia, what we may imminently be witnessing is not the weakening and balkanisation of Russia, but rather that of Ukraine.

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Sat Sep 09, 2023 9:39 pm

Stormbreak: Breaking through Russian Defenses in the 2023 Ukraine Offensive
September 9, 14:10

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Fragment of the RUSI report on the battles on the Vremevsky ledge. Technical translation using a neural network.

Stormbreak: Breaking through Russian Defenses in the 2023 Ukraine Offensive

Introduction

In the fall of 2022, Russian troops suffered a serious defeat as a result of the collapse of the Western Group of Forces in Kharkov and the forced withdrawal of troops from Kherson. In response to these failures, General Sergei Surovikin, then commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, adopted a new strategy. First, Russia will use long-range precision strikes to carry out a campaign to deplete Ukraine's power and grid infrastructure, with the goal of making Ukrainian cities uninhabitable in the winter. Second, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will build a series of defense lines in the occupied territories in an attempt to contain further Ukrainian advances and prolong the conflict by exhausting Ukrainian troops. Extensive preparations for defensive operations - compared to the Kremlin's aggressive military goals - contributed to Surovikin's removal in January. and the chief of the Russian General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, launched a poorly prepared and costly series of offensive strikes in January. 2023 However, the defensive lines were completed and Russia was able to retreat to these defenses after the failure of its offensive efforts. The Surovikin Line now poses a serious barrier to Ukrainian troops seeking to liberate the occupied territories.

During the preparation for the Ukrainian offensive, various operational concepts were considered. Much of the evidence supporting the tactics that Ukraine's international partners sought to train Ukrainian forces in was based on 20th-century operational analysis that was consistent with the range of technologies used in Ukraine. Therefore, understanding how effective these tactics were is important for improving both the tactics of Ukraine's international partners and for improving the preparation of Ukrainian forces for subsequent operations. The purpose of this report is to examine the range of tactical actions of the Ukrainian military during the initial stages of the counteroffensive, as well as how the Ukrainian and Russian sides have improved their response.

The general plan of attack is very sensitive. Detailed reports on cumulative losses and other data are also confidential because they will provide Russia with information about the extent to which they have written off Ukrainian units. Therefore, rather than summing up the offensive, this report provides an example of a series of tactical actions that were conducted over two weeks over the villages of Novodarovka and Rivnopol, located on the border between the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions. The tactical series was chosen because it reflects broader trends and is informative about how Russian forces solve various tactical problems, as well as the different approaches taken by Ukrainian forces. The review is based on reports from participants about operations, captured documents from Russian command posts, materials from open sources, including satellite imagery of combat operations, as well as a review of closed-circuit videos of relevant tactical actions. This report was submitted to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) prior to publication to ensure that its publication would not jeopardize any ongoing operations or tactics. The report remains solely the work of the named authors.

I. Capture of Novodarivka and Rovnopol

The line of contact between Ukrainian and Russian forces along the border between the Zaporozhye and Donetsk regions was relatively unchanged in the months leading up to the Ukrainian offensive. Russian offensive operations in early 2023 focused on Vulkhedar, located approximately 40–50 kilometers to the east, and Bakhmut. Ukrainian troops remained in a thicket of trees about a kilometer north of Novodarovka, around the village of Novopol. For some time, the defense was held by a brigade of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces (STO), reinforced in May with a mechanized brigade and another line brigade in anticipation of an offensive. The mechanized brigade led the breakthrough. The Russians had one company in Novodarovka and another in Rovnopol, and a third occupied a number of fighting positions between the two settlements.The approaches to populated areas were heavily mined. To begin advancing south towards the Surovikin Line, Ukrainian troops needed to break through these villages and then through Priyutnoye, approximately 6 km to the south. (since Priyutnoye is still controlled by the RF Armed Forces, it is not difficult to guess that the enemy never reached the Surovikin line here)

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The Ukrainian offensive began in late May with a long period of preparatory artillery bombardment. In the Rivne-Poland direction, batteries of 155-mm M777 howitzers were allocated to support the offensive, positioning their firing positions in the north-west. Typically, Ukrainian howitzers had to move from 2 to 15 minutes from the moment they opened fire, depending on their distance from various threat systems. This time it was clear that Ukrainian intelligence had pinpointed the Russian firing positions, and thanks to the greater range of the 155mm guns, the Ukrainian artillerymen quickly forced the Russian artillery to retreat. Since the targets at this stage were mostly in close proximity, the Ukrainian artillery established a steady rhythm of strikes without the need to shift. Among the crews and infantry watching the fire, There was a feeling of delight. For several months the number of shells available was strictly limited. Ukraine tried to preserve its ammunition to create reserves for the offensive. There was now freedom of fire, and when requests for resupply came in, additional shells were delivered immediately.

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The Ukrainians have also worked to weaken Russian tactical reserves with UAVs. Daytime reconnaissance will reveal Russian positions, which will be attacked at night using converted agricultural UAVs dropping RPGs. This tactic was fairly binary in its viability. If Russian electronic warfare (EW) were active, the UAVs could not penetrate and would not typically be used. If electronic security were to weaken, the consequences could be dramatic. In one incident, a company of Russian tanks took up a position in a wooden block behind the front. Five UAVs were launched, each carrying four RPGs, destroying or seriously damaging seven tanks, although all UAVs were lost.

The decision to attempt to break through the original Russian combat positions was made on the evening of June 3; this task was assigned to mechanized troops. A discussion broke out in the command group about the swampiness of the area after the recent rains. Nevertheless, the decision was made to continue. The goal of the initial attack was to break through an area where the minefields were less dense due to the short distance between the lines, and to break into the village of Novodarovka. The village had been almost completely destroyed by Russian shelling when initially taken and was now simply a collection of fighting positions for a Russian infantry company. Long and narrow, running from east to west, the village provided the Russians with a covered position overlooking most of the approaches to their company positions to the east and west.

After identifying the breakthrough points in the early morning of June 4, the offensive began. Two UR-77 Meteorite charges were fired at the narrowest part of the minefield, exploding two 6-meter-wide channels from the forest border north to the outskirts of Novodarovka. Under the cover of artillery fire, the first column advanced along the eastern gap. The column was led by a pair of tanks, followed by MaxxPro MRAPs with infantry. Unfortunately, the MRAPs struggled in swampy terrain, especially in the wake of tanks. Several MRAPs were stuck, and the cleared lane was not wide enough for other vehicles to pass. It was at this moment, when the column was completely occupied by the breakthrough, that a pair of Russian tanks unmasked and began to attack the column. Ukrainian tanks returned fire from a distance of about 800 meters. However, the vehicles in the convoy were consistently hit. The landing infantry either turned back or moved forward along the cleared strip, trying to find cover. Some infantry units reached the outskirts of the village, but the open ground behind them, now devastated by fire, made the crossing dangerous, threatening to isolate these forces. Too small to take the village, the Ukrainian military now had to push forward or risk losing the platoon that reached Novodarovka. The threat to those suppressed in the minefield diminished after the SPG-9 recoilless rifles managed to hit the Russian tanks from the flank and knock them out. This allowed the victims to be evacuated.

The direction of the second company to the western breakthrough was determined both by the need to advance towards the goal and by the need to strengthen the troops in Novodarovka. The ground on this strip turned out to be more solid. However, when the column was completely occupied by the breakthrough, two more Russian tanks appeared, which quickly moved towards the column and opened fire. With the help of a UAV, the command post monitored the appearance of the enemy and fired to try to disrupt the fighting. Having been exposed, the breakthrough group tried to speed up the breakthrough, but deviated from the course. Then all the company's vehicles were sequentially immobilized by mines. The Russians then opened fire on the column. The stormtroopers split up again: some reached the outskirts of the village, others retreated.

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The Russian defenders of the village moved to repel positions that had by then been occupied, retreating to strong points on a farm to the east of the village and to several fighting positions along the central road. Realizing the importance of expanding the territory held to divert forces from Russian fire, the Ukrainian commander deployed two assault groups as reinforcements. One platoon group advanced along the breach, using stopped vehicles as cover, while fire suppressed the Russian positions. Another platoon to the west noticed that the dead ground had become viable as the redeployment of Russian troops in the village had removed it from view and thick foliage prevented UAV surveillance. These troops advanced cautiously to the western end of Novodarovka and began an assault on Russian positions to secure the crossroads dividing the settlement. After fierce fighting, Russian troops withdrew east to prevent their positions from being isolated. Fighting inside Novodarivka will continue for another week, with Russian firing positions on the eastern estate holding out until they are isolated by further Ukrainian actions in the direction of Rovnopol. Although the Russians held some positions, they no longer controlled the approaches to other Russian positions, opening up additional attack opportunities. The first new position to come under attack was the high ground west of Novodarovka. Previously, Russian positions in the populated area blocked the approaches to the heights,

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Before any further action could be taken, the Russian company in front of the village of Rovnopol to the east had to be dealt with. This position controlled access to a series of wooden blocks that ran semi-contiguous from north to south. Ukrainian commanders were concerned that if they tried to push forward, Russian anti-tank guided weapons (ATGM) teams and other troops would flank them and cause significant damage to critical equipment. Therefore, it was necessary to take such a position. However, at the same time, the Ukrainian command was cautious. They lost two companies of equipment during the capture of Novodarovka. This level of casualties would have been unacceptable if they had eventually broken through the Surovikin Line.Therefore, it was extremely important that the assault on the Rivne Poland positions take place without such setbacks.

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The attack on the positions of the Russian company in front of Rovnopol will be led by marine forces. To carry out the operation, the attacking forces were reinforced by two tanks from a neighboring brigade and an artillery battery. The attack began with artillery preparation of Russian positions. After this, two tanks took up positions providing direct visibility of the target and began firing. Tanks moved in and out of cover and attacked Russian firing positions to attract attention and suppress the defenders. Soon after this, artillery strikes on combat positions were combined with the supply of smoke in front of the tanks. The tanks moved forward, giving the impression that they were covering the advance of the infantry with smoke.

While the tanks attracted the attention of the defenders, several platoons of Ukrainian paratroopers moved along the tree line east of the Russian combat positions. From here he began to lay down suppressive fire and advance in pairs. This action attracted the attention of the defense, who were now aware of a clear tactical play with a fixing action on its front and a major attack about to begin from its flank. The Russian unit began to reposition itself to prepare for this attack and attempted to win the skirmish in the east. Reinforcing the feeling that the city was about to be attacked, Ukrainian artillery then fired a heavy salvo into the positions, signaling an imminent attack.

The attack, when it occurred, did not materialize as Russian defenders had expected. Instead, a platoon of assault troops, having penetrated forward along the western flank of the position, then quickly advanced forward, reaching defensive positions that had been thinned out in anticipation of an attack to the east. Disoriented and fearful of encirclement, Russian troops began to retreat towards Rovnopol, abandoning communications equipment and leaving five soldiers captured. Ukrainian forces had to quickly develop an attack beyond the company's positions, since its coordinates had been previously recorded by Russian artillery, which was striking the trenches. However, the rapid collapse of this position forced a redistribution of forces in Rovnopol itself, which allowed another brigade to launch an attack on the village and, within a few days, force the Russians to retreat to the tree line beyond the village. Eventually, Russian troops withdrew through the water barrier behind the village and blew up several agricultural dams, flooding the area and setting up a series of ATGM firing posts in the woods beyond. The density of the anti-tank shield was significant: approximately four launchers per tree line with 50 missiles. These ATGM teams allow themselves to be advanced and then conduct anti-tank ambushes from the flank before attempting to retreat. They therefore had to be deliberately cleared before any armor could be brought forward. With only one vehicle available to overcome obstacles, Ukrainian units had to pause to consolidate their successes. Russian troops withdrew through the water barrier behind the village and blew up several agricultural dams, flooding the area, setting up a number of ATGM firing posts in the forests beyond. The density of the anti-tank shield was significant: approximately four launchers per tree line with 50 missiles. These ATGM teams allow themselves to be advanced and then conduct anti-tank ambushes from the flank before attempting to retreat. They therefore had to be deliberately cleared before any armor could be brought forward. With only one vehicle available to overcome obstacles, Ukrainian units had to pause to consolidate their successes.

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The capture of Novodarivka and Rovnopol took two weeks, while the need to secure flank positions was a prerequisite for further offensive. The pace of advance during this period was therefore one tactical offensive per three days of fighting, with each offensive moving the line of control approximately 700–1,200 meters forward. The difference in methods for achieving various successes has led to completely opposite results in terms of the level of costs for the successes achieved. While the first tactical offensive on Novodarovka cost two companies of equipment, losses during the offensive on Rovnopol were small. Since these initial exchanges, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have adapted their methods. The emphasis of the Ukrainian troops shifted to withdrawing positions while preserving equipment and personnel.

II. Russian Language Lessons and Adaptation

The tactical actions around Novodarivka and Rovnopol were largely viewed as successes by Russian forces, as they inflicted enough early equipment losses to reduce the reach of Ukrainian maneuver units, suggesting a constant level of casualties deep in Russian defensive positions. At the same time, Russian losses in artillery and tanks were high, with the former worrying the Russian command more.The losses of Russian troops, although acceptable for the 58th Combined Arms Army in terms of attrition, were nevertheless unsustainable in the conditions of a protracted offensive without the supply of reinforcements. In short, Russia achieved tactical success in preventing a breakthrough and could have achieved operational success if it had continued to inflict comparable losses in equipment on the enemy. However, the reduction in personnel, if it continues until the fall, will create a risk of operational defeat, and the loss of artillery systems threatens to reduce the ability to deplete Ukrainian troops. Given these dynamics, several changes were made to Russian defensive operations.

The first adaptation was to increase the depth of the minefields. Before the offensive, Russian minefields were doctrinally set to a depth of 120 meters. After the initial engagements, it was noted that mines of this depth could be penetrated by MICLIC and UR-77 to a depth sufficient to allow infantry to penetrate Russian defensive positions. Thus, the goal was to increase the depth of the minefields to 500 meters, which far exceeds the capabilities of a quick breakthrough. This had a number of secondary consequences. First, Russian logistics systems were organized to equip brigades with sufficient mines in accordance with doctrinal templates. The increased field depth means that Russian forces do not have enough mines to consistently counter this load with a mine density consistent with doctrine. The result was the improvisation of explosive devices, an expansion of the range of mines available and a decrease in the regularity of minefields. Other common measures included placing two anti-tank mines together—one on top of the other—to compensate for the reduced density by ensuring single mine strikes immobilized vehicles, even if the vehicles were equipped with dozer blades. Before this, a tank equipped with a bulldozer blade often withstood three mine hits before being immobilized by the fourth. Although minefield consistency has now decreased, this has made Ukrainian minefield planning and exploration much more difficult.

Russian forces have also concluded that the practice of using pre-registered fire to hit friendly positions if they are lost is ineffective and dangerous when the enemy has an artillery advantage in terms of detection, range and counter-battery accuracy. Problems with this method include detection of friendly guns, reduced effectiveness due to the tendency of Ukrainians to withdraw from combat positions as quickly as possible, and dependence on communications. To solve these problems, the Russians resorted to preparing their combat positions to destroy their reserves. This is often done using improvised charges. The plan is to blow up the first line as soon as Ukrainian troops reach their fighting positions and Russian troops withdraw through the rear of the trenches.According to the Russians, this is more rapid and effective than the use of artillery fire, and poses a threat to the bravest and most combat-ready airborne units of Ukrainian formations, deterring attacks on firing posts.

If the increased complexity and extent of minefields imposes restrictions on the enemy's tempo, and the backup demolition of combat positions inhibits the rapid clearing of positions, then such an enemy consolidation requires that the Russians have the means to inflict damage on advancing troops. Artillery remains the primary method, but due to fewer guns and the need to protect them, greater emphasis is now placed on other means.One of the main methods adopted by the Russian Armed Forces is to place groups of ATGMs on the flanks of their positions, with priority given to more trained and motivated troops to conduct anti-tank ambushes. While there are limited personnel capable and willing to fight in this manner, there appears to be no shortage of Russian ATGMs, with the Ukrainian military noting that these groups are well equipped with newly produced ammunition. These troops also have priority for engaging enemy aircraft.

The use of strike aircraft presented a constant challenge to Ukrainian forces throughout the counteroffensive. The greatest threat is posed by the Ka-52 “Alligators” firing the “Vikhr” and “Attack” ATGMs.However, the Russians have also begun installing Ataka on the Mi-35M, which also perform area attacks using salvos of raised S-8 missiles.Air strikes are carried out from a depth of approximately 8–10 kilometers from the target. The Ukrainian military notes that the presence of strike aircraft is often indicated by the removal of GPS jamming among Russian formations, reflecting the need for precise navigation to coordinate strikes given that both armies use many of the same platforms. Russian helicopter groups also often use helicopters equipped with electronic warfare equipment for defensive purposes, equipped with targeting units designed for radar guidance. The Russians have to keep helicopters relatively close to the front lines, leaving their forward weapons, refueling and other infrastructure vulnerable. However, the lack of Ukrainian tactical air defense, the low altitude supported by these assets, and the limited period of time,

The Russian military also decided to tactically exploit opportunities when Ukrainian forces became bogged down in aggressive flanking attacks with armored vehicles to cripple Ukrainian systems. It's worth noting that Russia often loses tanks used in these counterattacks, but they cause disproportionate damage because the mines limit the ability of Ukrainian vehicles to maneuver or react. This willingness to counterattack and the decision to defend attackers underscores that the training of Russian tank crews and other specialists continues to function, producing new crews with some tactical competence compared to the problems of collective training that hamper Russian infantry.

There are also areas of adaptation that reflect significant improvements in practice and are not specific to the current context. One area in which Russia will continue to adapt, as well as improve, is electronic warfare. The Russian electronic warfare system is a major area of ​​investment, and Russian electronic warfare operators are generally technically competent. However, Russian EW platforms are largely modernized versions of Soviet equipment, with each type of actuator placed on one large platform, with groups of platforms providing a wide range of EW effects. The vulnerability of this approach was recognized by the RF Armed Forces, given the focus on specific emission sources.First of all, this led to a much more subtle use of large platforms, such as the Resident R330-Zh. This has also led to a preference for mounting antennas on lightweight platforms, or dismantling and deploying antennas that can be placed to cover tactical positions. Thus, the transmission of influence through the antenna can be carried out by electronic warfare systems that are not tied to the emitting signature. Losing an antenna when they come under attack is a cost the Russian military thinks they can bear. This is a period of transition and therefore there is no uniform approach. However, the preference to use systems like Pole-21 and treat them as expendable systems to provide broad protection against UAV strikes reflects a change in thinking and how the Russian electronic warfare industry is learning lessons from the conflict.

Another interesting area of ​​conceptual innovation that began before the Ukrainian offensive but has been accelerated by today's dynamics is the transition to Russian fire doctrine.Based on statistics collected during World War II, Russian artillery established fire levels that were estimated to provide a certain effect on certain targets. For example, it was estimated that 720 rounds were needed to suppress a platoon's fighting position. This is the basis on which Russian fires operated during the early stages of the invasion of Ukraine. Russians now consider this approach unviable. First, Russian forces do not have the ammunition to withstand this volume of fire. Secondly, the logistics that provide such a volume of fire are too vulnerable to detection and high-precision strikes at a long distance. Thirdly, the loss of the counter-battery radar and wear of the barrels led to a decrease in the effectiveness of this mass approach to firing.

The general conclusion that Russian fire doctrine is not viable has led to a redoubled focus on the concept of the Reconnaissance Fire Complex (ROC), which prioritizes effect over volume. While production of a range of Russian ammunition has become limited, production of the 152mm Krasnopol laser-guided rounds has been a priority, with the new rounds being widely available across the front. The use of UAVs to provide guidance to Krasnopol has also increased. The Lancet was also widely used in conjunction with FPV UAVs to strike forward Ukrainian units. When used in conjunction with ISR UAVs, these effects ensure accuracy.

The Russian military, of course, continues to rely heavily on MLRS, 120mm mortars and other inaccurate systems, while cutting corners in ammunition production becomes apparent. Nevertheless,the trend seems to be towards maximizing accuracy and reducing the number of shots needed to achieve the desired result, rather than resorting to saturating fire. This is a worrying trend as it will likely significantly improve Russian artillery over time. The increasing complexity, variety and density of Russian UAVs is a cause for concern. The improvement in both warhead efficiency and economics of its design between Lancet 3 and Lancet 3M demonstrates how the Russians are actively improving their warhead equipment. Also noteworthy are modifications to loitering ammunition to reduce noise on the Shahed-136 and improve navigation. It is obvious here that the AFRF is actively learning from Ukrainian forces and thereby reducing the extent of some Ukrainian advantages.

Effective warfare depends on communications. And here the Russian army has made important progress. At the start of the full-scale invasion, Russian forces relied heavily on custom-made military radios. The scramble for equipment late last year involved a wide range of civilian systems. Conceptually, however, the Russians now appear to have moved on, relying increasingly on military data networks as well as application-based services to encode and access data. As a result, a system like Strelets can provide 3G connectivity to multiple devices running applications that are intuitive for civilian users.This separation of communication channels and services is in its infancy, and the security and reliability of the systems under test must be questioned. However, the reduced training burden associated with this approach and the improvements already achieved in fire control mean that the Russian military will likely continue to move in this direction and increasingly systematize its communications architecture around these methods.

(c) Jack Whiting and Nick Reynolds

PS. Then there was a lengthy block about the problems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and what NATO should do to eliminate structural deficiencies and problems before the 2024 campaign.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8622141.html

Google Translator

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STEPHEN BRYEN: UKRAINE TO COST HALF-TRILLION MORE IF WAR ENDS NOW
SEPTEMBER 8, 2023 NATYLIESB

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Photo by Karolina Grabowska on Pexels.com

By Stephen Bryen, Asia Times, 8/23/23

If the Ukraine war ended tomorrow, the United States still would need to send hundreds of billions in aid to that country. The bill includes continuation of military assistance, budget support for the Ukrainian government and reconstruction assistance.

President Biden has just asked for another US$24 billion to support Ukraine, primarily for military equipment but also budget support ($7.3 billion). While Congress is increasingly skeptical about another huge chunk of money to fund an endless conflict, this is peanuts compared with what will be asked after the war ends.

The World Bank has done a revised estimate on reconstruction needs, based on data from the first year of the war (February 2022 to February 2023). The Bank says that Ukraine needs $411 billion for reconstruction over a ten-year period.

That estimate will need to be significantly increased to account for February to August 2023 and beyond. It would make sense to think that even if the war stopped tomorrow, reconstruction aid would come to $600 billion or more, or more than half a trillion dollars.

For purposes of comparison, the war in Iraq featured a reconstruction program of $60 billion. The US also spent $90 billion over twelve years to support Afghanistan (although the war continued in that country.)

There is no doubt that most of the US assistance to Afghanistan was probably stolen or went over to the Taliban. On top of that, billions’ worth of US war-fighting equipment was left in place and is now used by the Taliban.

In the case of Iraq, most of the aid was wasted thanks to bad management, corruption and poor planning.

The US and its allies will need to cough up $60 billion annually to support Ukraine, and expect that a lot of it will be stolen. It will have to keep the funding up for 10 years.

Consider that Germany has committed to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes” at $5 billion annually. But the German government in power is likely to be replaced soon, and that pledge is about as worthless as the Weimar mark.

Likewise, the UK economy is very dodgy, and finding serious money in future will prove a real challenge. The bottom line is that most of the money will have to come from Uncle Sam.

It may be that some Washington insiders are thinking that the best thing is to prolong the war as long as possible, because if the fighting continues the US just needs to provide military assistance and budget support for the government, but not reconstruction assistance.

In effect, that is the Biden administration policy. By continuing the war the Biden government thinks it can convince Congress to keep paying and they can keep Ukraine “alive” by forking over arms and money to pay salaries and for needed supplies.

But will Congress be willing to keep spending for an endless war? It is likely Congress will want to know where the money is going, how it is used, and how the US government accounts for its spending.

Most Americans oppose more aid to Ukraine. We are entering an election period with the first Republican presidential debates coming soon. Ukraine is sure to be an issue and some candidates, like Robert Kennedy Jr, who identifies for the time being as a Democrat, already are speaking out against supporting the war.

This could mean Biden will have a huge problem trying to get a skittish Congress, including his fellow Democrats, to sign up for more spending on a losing proposition.

It has long been understood that Ukraine is a corrupt country. Ukrainian politicians, including Zelensky, have offshored some of their wealth (Zelensky has a villa in Tuscany on the seashore in Forte dei Marmi which he bought before he entered politics and now rents to Russian clients at 12,000 euros a month).

President Biden’s son Hunter is embroiled in an investigation of payments and other activities centered partly on Ukraine’s Burisma energy holding company and in part on transactions in China. A Republican-dominated committee in the House of Representatives has sought to tie the president to the matters under investigation.

When the “big” reconstruction money starts flowing, assuming that happens, political and military officials in Ukraine will enthusiastically help the United States line their pockets.

Ukraine’s corruption was highly visible this month as President Zelensky fired all the military recruiters in the country because they were selling recruitment passes to young men seeking to avoid the war.

Ukraine will end up being the most costly operation ever carried out by the United States. The US Marshall Plan for European reconstruction after World War II cost the United States $13.3 billion. That amount, in 2023 dollars, would be $173 billion, roughly a third of what reconstruction would cost for Ukraine.

There will be a strong lobbying effort by some US companies that anticipate getting rich providing support to Ukraine (these in addition to the usual suspects in defense industries).

We have seen them before in the Iraq reconstruction exercise. This lobbying will provide bait to Democrats and Republicans who otherwise might walk away from the war. But will it be enough to go against the will of American voters?

Americans can rightly ask: What are we getting for these huge outlays that will seriously burden US taxpayers? The US policy on Ukraine is a disaster from many angles, but for sure one of them is the huge dollar cost in supporting this endless misadventure.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2023/09/ste ... -ends-now/

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WaPo Reported That Ukrainians Are Distrustful of the West & Flirting With a Ceasefire
Posted on September 9, 2023 by Yves Smith.

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Yves here. Keep in mind that this post illustrates yet another example of what I call the Western side negotiating with itself, as in fantasizing what positions or outcomes are tolerable from their side without considering what the Russians will accept.

In contrast with the Ukraine belief that they can declare a ceasefire unilaterally or otherwise call it quits and Russia will stop, we have a series of confounding issues. The first is the hawks, thanks to Biden’s belligerence and unwillingness to climb down, are in charge in Washington and will conduct a long war with Russia if they have to, despite a Rand paper in 2022 warning explicitly against that. Second is that Russia is determined Ukraine commit to not joining NATO. That would seem to require regime change or prostration of Ukraine. Confirming that view is Alaistair Crooke, in an interview with Glenn Diesen and Alexander Mercouris, who at 7:45 points out that the war has changed the psyche in Russia, that the government and public “want to see the regime defeated.” https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/09 ... efire.html

By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website

The takeaway is that a theoretical Russian breakthrough along the front lines, perhaps in Kharkov Region where its armed forces have gradually made progress over the summer, could be enough to force Kiev into accepting an informal ceasefire as a last resort against its will.

CNN’s Fareed Zakaria is among the most well-known representatives of the Mainstream Media so it’s important to keep an eye on what he says if one wants to see what narratives the Western elite are pushing at any given moment. His latest article for the Washington Post (WaPo) about how “Ukrainians are determined to persevere, but they worry that their allies aren’t” is a case in point. Here are the highlights, which will then be analyzed to help make sense of what’s going on behind the scenes:

———-
* Life in the Ukrainian capital is practically unaffected by the ongoing conflict

– “Despite the war, Kyiv feels almost normal…Stores and cafes in the city are bustling. Air raid sirens went off while I was having dinner at a friend’s place, and no one even stopped eating.”

* Nevertheless, the mood there is becoming dour

– “Everyone is exhausted and sober. Ukraine’s losses have been terrible, measured both in cities destroyed and soldiers and civilians killed.”

* No one wants to “surrender”, but complaints about the counteroffensive are common

– “But exhaustion does not equal surrender. No one I spoke with believed that Ukraine should stop fighting to get back its territories. They were disappointed that the counteroffensive is not going better, but its difficulties only remind them that this will be a long struggle.”

* Some are even whispering about a ceasefire

– “When you speak with people at greater length, their views are more nuanced. ‘No surrender’ is the mantra, but some said it was possible to imagine a cease-fire — with Ukraine never legally endorsing the legitimacy of Russian rule over parts of Donbas and Crimea — in exchange for real security guarantees.”

* An unnamed politician hinted that the military’s rank-and-file would support that scenario

– “As one Ukrainian politician (who wished to stay unnamed) told me, ‘It’s easy for all of us who have not been in the fighting to refuse to compromise. The real question is what are the attitudes of the soldiers in the field and those who have returned. They might have more nuanced positions. But they will have to articulate them.’”

* These shifting sentiments might be partially due to the Western public’s fatigue

– “The dominant worry in Kyiv is not about Russia but the West. Ukrainians have reason to be worried. Support for their fight is waning in some European countries…Support for Ukraine is also slipping in the United States…Ukrainians are determined to persevere, but they worry that their allies are not.”
———-

The average Westerner might be surprised to learn that Kiev is practically unaffected by the ongoing conflict, which could result in even more of them turning against their politicians who want to continue redistributing the public’s hard-earned tax wealth to Ukrainians. As for the locals in that country, Westerners might also have been unaware that they too are beginning to wonder whether it’s worth fighting Russia indefinitely, with these two points combining to boost popular support for a ceasefire.

That’s not to say that one will be forthcoming, especially not after the recent events detailed here strongly suggest that Kiev and its liberal–globalist patrons in the US’ permanent bureaucracy plan to keep the conflict going into next year, but just that divisions between the public and policymakers will widen. The preceding trend could lead to more support for the Republicans ahead of next year’s elections while worsening the fatigue and frustration that Western media earlier reported has taken hold of Ukrainians.

The first therefore won’t stand a chance of reshaping policy until sometime in 2025 at the earliest, but even that can’t be taken for granted, whereas the second could have much more immediate implications. The fact that an unnamed Ukrainian politician hinted to WaPo about how war-weary his country’s troops have become and their growing interest in a least a temporary respite show that the armed forces might not be able to fulfill policymakers’ expectations of a protracted conflict.

All the dynamics that have been discussed thus far are made even more acute by the symbiotic relationship between Ukraine and the West at the state and the local levels. Their officials’ vicious blame game over the counteroffensive arguably influenced their people’s perceptions of this conflict and one another, which accelerated their overall fatigue and mutual distrust. This had the direct effect of contributing to the dour mood that Zakaria observed during his visit to Kiev.

The takeaway is that a theoretical Russian breakthrough along the front lines, perhaps in Kharkov Region where its armed forces have gradually made progress over the summer, could be enough to force Kiev into accepting an informal ceasefire as a last resort against its will. The logic is that this could limit Ukraine’s losses together with preventing the collapse of its armed forces. It would obviously be under duress and opposed by the US, but Zelensky might feel that he doesn’t have an alternative.

Each side would of course blame the other, but the Ukrainian leader could claim moral authority over America if he spins this decision as the will of his armed forces (“heroes”), though the US might still try to exploit the resultant scandal to undermine his re-election bid if this happens before the next vote. There are veritably pros and cons to this scenario, and it’s largely dependent on the uncertain possibility of a Russian breakthrough, but the substance of Zakaria’s articles suggests that it can’t be ruled out.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/09 ... efire.html

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West Using Zelensky’s Jewish Heritage To Distract From Nazism in Ukraine – Putin
SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

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Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. Photo: John Moore/Getty Images.

Kiev is glorifying those responsible for a quarter of the Holocaust, the Russian president has said

Using Vladimir Zelensky’s Jewish heritage to cover for the culpability of Ukrainian nationalists in the Holocaust during WWII is disgusting, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday, adding that the followers of Stepan Bandera were responsible for the killing of 1.5 million Jews.

“I think it’s important to repeat that Western handlers placed at the head of modern Ukraine an ethnic Jew, a man of Jewish background, with Jewish roots – in this way, in my opinion, covering up the anti-human basis of the current Ukrainian state,” Putin told journalist Pavel Zarubin.

“That makes the entire situation so highly disgusting, to have an ethnic Jew mask the glorification of Nazism and those who carried out the Holocaust in Ukraine at the time, exterminating 1.5 million people,” the Russian president added. “Ordinary Israeli citizens have figured this out the best. Just look at what they say online.”

Putin had just finished meeting with the ‘Victory’ Committee – an advisory body charged with patriotic education and veterans’ affairs. The Russian president brought up the issue during a conversation with one of the committee members, pointing out that Moscow may not have done enough to present the facts about the atrocities of Nazi collaborators in Ukraine and the Baltic states.

“When you look at actual archival documents, the blood in your veins simply freezes, it is impossible to look at it without tears, and this needs to be pulled out and shown. Who are the current authorities glorifying? These anti-humans are putting bloody killers on a pedestal, and carry banners with their portraits as they march down the main streets of their cities,” Putin told the committee.

The German military and the SS “delegated” the massacres of Jews to local nationalists and anti-Semites, like Stepan Bandera’s OUN and UPA, the Russian president pointed out.

“I’m not sure that all the people in Ukraine know about this. So let’s do what we can here to show them, all right?” Putin told the committee.

Bandera was declared a war criminal by both the Soviet Union and Poland for his role in the Holocaust and the mass murder of Poles in present-day western Ukraine. The pro-US government in Kiev declared him a national hero in 2010, however, and nationalists have honored him ever since with torchlight processions in major Ukrainian cities to mark his birthday every January 1.

Putin has previously expressed his bafflement that Zelensky would embrace the glorification of Bandera, given his Jewish heritage. Zelensky’s grandfather, Semyon, had also fought in the Second World War, earning two Red Star medals for courage and heroism.

The current Ukrainian president was previously an actor and ran for head of state in 2019 on a promise of peace with Russia, only to completely change course and embrace the hardline nationalists within months of taking office.

https://orinocotribune.com/west-using-z ... ine-putin/

Something he could have and would have said eight years ago if he hadn't been too busy trying to kiss the West's ass. The carnage would have been massively minimized.

*******

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NATO Chief Openly Admits Russia Invaded Ukraine Because Of NATO Expansion

When official authorized narrative-makers acknowledge these things it’s okay, but when normal human beings do it it’s Kremlin disinformation.

Caitlin Johnstone
September 9, 2023

During a speech at the EU Parliament’s foreign affairs committee on Thursday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg clearly and repeatedly acknowledged that Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine because of fears of NATO expansionism.

His comments, initially flagged by journalist Thomas Fazi, read as follows:

The background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement. That was what he sent us. And was a pre-condition for not invade Ukraine. Of course we didn’t sign that.

The opposite happened. He wanted us to sign that promise, never to enlarge NATO. He wanted us to remove our military infrastructure in all Allies that have joined NATO since 1997, meaning half of NATO, all the Central and Eastern Europe, we should remove NATO from that part of our Alliance, introducing some kind of B, or second class membership. We rejected that.

So he went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders.


Stoltenberg made these remarks as part of a general gloat about the fact that Putin invaded Ukraine to prevent NATO expansion and yet the invasion has resulted in Sweden and Finland applying to join the alliance, saying it “demonstrates that when President Putin invaded a European country to prevent more NATO, he’s getting the exact opposite.”

Stoltenberg’s remarks would probably have been classified as Russian propaganda by plutocrat-funded “disinformation experts” and imperial “fact checkers” if it had been said online by someone like you or me, but because it came from the head of NATO as part of a screed against the Russian president it’s been allowed to pass through without objection.

In reality Stoltenberg is just stating a well-established fact: contrary to the official western narrative, Putin invaded Ukraine not because he is evil and hates freedom but because no great power ever allows foreign military threats to amass on its borders  —  including the United States. That’s why so many western analysts and officials spent years warning that NATO’s actions were going to provoke a war, and yet when war broke out we were slammed with a tsunami of mass media propaganda repeating over and over and over again that this was an “unprovoked invasion”.

It would have been so very, very easy to prevent this horrific war. Off-ramp after off-ramp after off-ramp was passed to get us to where we’re at now. Chance after chance after chance to avoid all this pointless death and misery was passed up, both before 2014 and every year since. The US-centralized power structure knowingly chose this war, and it did so to advance its own interests. If people really, deeply understood this, the entire western empire would collapse.


It’s the damnedest thing how you’ll get called a Kremlin agent for saying that this war was provoked by NATO expansionism and that it serves US interests, even when NATO openly says this war was provoked by NATO expansionism and US officials keep openly saying that this war serves US interests.

The latest entry in the latter category came in the form of a Thursday tweet by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, which reads, “Standing with our allies against Russian aggression isn’t charity. In fact — it’s a direct investment in replenishing America’s arsenal with American weapons built by American workers. Expanding our defense industrial base puts America in a stronger position to out-compete China.”

When official authorized narrative-makers acknowledge these things it’s okay, but when normal human beings do it it’s Kremlin disinformation. This is because when the authorized narrative-makers do it they’re doing it to advance the information interests of the US empire — to explain to war-weary Americans how this war benefits their country, or to mock Putin’s failure to stop the enlargement of NATO — whereas when normal people do it it’s to establish what’s true and factual.

This all happens as a study sponsored by the EU with a group funded by US oligarch Pierre Omidyar is being circulated by mass media outlets like The Washington Post finding that Twitter under Elon Musk has not been doing enough to censor “Russian propaganda” on the platform. This would put Musk in violation of the European Union’s Digital Services Act, which requires platforms to restrict such materials.


As Glenn Greenwald has noted, the Digital Services Act defines “Russian propaganda” so extremely broadly that it includes “ideological alignment with the Russian state” in the category of materials that must be censored, which includes people who “parrot the Kremlin’s narratives through originally produced content or by spreading Kremlin aligned narratives to different target audiences and languages.”

Anyone who speaks out against US foreign policy relating to Russia online is always immediately accused of “parroting Kremlin narratives” by empire apologists mindlessly regurgitating what they’ve been told to believe by outlets like The Washington Post, whether they have anything to do with the Russian government or not. I myself have no affiliation or interaction with the Russian state whatsoever, yet I receive many of these accusations every single day online just for criticizing US foreign policy.

If I were the NATO Secretary General publicly gloating about how Putin’s efforts to stop the expansion of NATO have failed, it would be fine for me to acknowledge that NATO expansion provoked this war after our refusal to prevent a needless conflict. But because I am harming the information interests of the western empire instead of helping them, that makes me a Russian propagandist.

This isn’t because the definition of “Russian propaganda” is flawed, but because it is working exactly as intended. The push to marginalize and eliminate “Russian propaganda” has never had anything to do with fighting the actual materials put out by the Russian state (which have essentially zero meaningful existence in the western world); the push has always been about stomping out opposition to US foreign policy.

Like so much else in this world when examining the behavior of power, it’s ultimately all about narrative control. The powerful understand that whoever controls the dominant narrative about world events actually controls the world, because real power isn’t just controlling what happens but controlling what people think about what happens. That’s the real glue holding the US-centralized empire together, and the world will never have a chance at knowing peace until people start bringing consciousness to it.

https://caitlinjohnstone.com.au/2023/09 ... expansion/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Sun Sep 10, 2023 12:28 pm

season of reproaches
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 09/10/2023

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With great management of forms and the ability to adapt the theme of the speech to the public he is addressing to give the greatest effectiveness to the service of his speech, Zelensky's press conferences and public events have become an attraction. Installing the Ukrainian discourse as the only acceptable one was the objective of Ukrainian communication in the first months of the Russo-Ukrainian war, all in the service of a narrative of absolute simplicity: Ukraine needs weapons and more weapons, money and more money. Ukraine's entire sophisticated strategy revolves around that simple maxim, which he has skillfully imposed and virtually unopposed. In that fight, in which it has never really wanted or been able to enter, the Kremlin always had the battle lost and no argument about, for example,Western establishment .

During much of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the development of events has created favorable conditions for Ukrainian discourse. As Russia advanced rapidly through the south in the initial weeks, Ukraine needed nothing more than the defense epic to get what it wanted: the beginning of a constant flow of financing and weapons to make the fight against the invader possible. In the months in which Ukraine recovered territory, especially when it prepared the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, which were successful or did not even occur in the face of the Russian retreat, the epic of the defense became the adrenaline of victory. It was the crest of the wave that kyiv has stretched during the months of preparation for an offensive that it presented as potentially decisive.

The current situation is much more complex. Ukraine claims great progress on the front that does not correspond to reality. Giving Rabotino the definition of a strategic city is not going to change reality: Ukraine claimed to control the town two weeks ago, it continues without effective control and suffering losses, which is why it has not managed to make it a bridgehead to collapse the Russian defense line. And announcing great advances in the Artyomovsk area on a daily basis does not change the reality that Ukraine, which already claimed in May that the city was practically under siege, has not been able to recover the positions it lost in Bakhmut.

Without the epic of defense and the enthusiasm of victory, Ukraine finds itself faced with the need to exploit something different. The constant references by Dmitro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs, to the proliferation of peace plans , all of them unacceptable as they do not correspond one hundred percent to Zelensky's Russian capitulation proposals, denotes that Kiev is facing a season of concern. The offensive risks entering the stalemate phase, especially if Russian troops resist the attacks of Ukraine, which has been forced to introduce the brigades reserved for the deep advance towards Melitopol-Crimea, during the next few weeks, last in which the weather favors large operations in the open field.

The difficulty faced with the task of breaking the Russian defense lines on the southern front, prepared during the months in which the Russian troops were commanded by the now retired General Surovikin, is causing nervousness that translates into demands and reproaches. Although initially limited, at least publicly, to messages on social networks and press articles in which they subtly show some criticism, the last few hours seem to have generalized this discourse, hardening it noticeably. In one of his last tweets, President Zelensky states that “Ukraine is more than a country fighting against Russian aggression. It is a personal moral choice about what truly has value, what you believe in, and what your true priorities are. This is a moral foundation that transcends borders. It has to be humanistic. It has to prevail.” The arrogance of war makes someone who for seven years refused to comply with the peace agreement signed and maintained an economic blockade and a war situation in a totally unnecessary and artificial way presented as moral and humanist. Still, the idea of ​​the speech is that “the future is decided in Ukraine.” Not only the future of Ukraine, but apparently that of Western civilization, that is, that of civilization. The insolence of someone who, despite everything he is receiving, always wants more seems to have no end. In the last few hours, kyiv has set three targets for its criticism: the United Nations, Elon Musk and the countries that supply and finance the State of Ukraine.

“Who would have imagined that the UN could become the main lobbyist for war criminals? A reminder. By imposing sanctions for violations of international law, Western countries sent a clear message to Russian elites: under Putin, Russia has no future; Russia after Putin will have a chance. Lobbying _From the idea of ​​​​lifting sanctions against Russia for the export of stolen grain in the middle of a full-scale war, the UN leadership wants to prolong the life of the Putin regime and recognize missile attacks as an effective tool to achieve objectives politicians. An interesting sign in the world of the 21st century. None of these absurd ideas can be realized, especially in the context of missile terror against Ukrainian ports and grain infrastructure. However, it is another reminder that Russia's presence in the United Nations Security Council is poisoning the entire organization," wrote Mikhailo Podolyak,

Podolyak is referring to the negotiations by António Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations, to reactivate the Ukrainian grain export agreement, complying with the conditions set by Russia, which are actually those that a year ago he considered had been promised to him: the reconnecting their banks to the SWIFT system to unblock their agricultural exports. Ukraine has spent months claiming to be saving the world from famine, but continues to demand the blocking of Russian exports, as important to global food security as those from Ukraine. What is surprising is not Guterres' current intervention in favor of keeping Russian and Ukrainian products on the market, which represent an important weight in world grain exports, but rather the slowness with which he has acted. There is no argument to explain why the year of leeway while the Black Sea agreement was in force was not used to achieve these objectives. The fact that the bank that allows European countries to continue acquiring Russian liquefied gas has not been disconnected from the SWIFT system shows that it is possible to keep on the market those products that are of interest to the West. For some reason, the maintenance of Russian grain and fertilizers on the market has not caused such interest. In any case, Guterres' movements still seem initial and there are no guarantees of success. Still, they have been enough to cause hysteria in the The fact that the bank that allows European countries to continue acquiring Russian liquefied gas has not been disconnected from the SWIFT system shows that it is possible to keep on the market those products that are of interest to the West. For some reason, the maintenance of Russian grain and fertilizers on the market has not caused such interest. In any case, Guterres' movements still seem initial and there are no guarantees of success. Still, they have been enough to cause hysteria in the Ukrainian establishment.

The second recipient of Ukrainian fury this week has been Elon Musk, one of the richest men in the world and owner of the platform that Ukraine most actively uses to mark discourse, Twitter/X. Without this tool, kyiv would have more difficulties in setting the daily political agenda, since each tweet from advisors like Mijailo Podolyak or President Zelensky automatically becomes news picked up by the entire world press. Ukraine's foreign dependence has also been reflected in the communications aspect: kyiv bases its communications on the Starlink satellite communication system, owned by Elon Musk. According to a recently published book, last year, Musk received a request from kyiv to activate the systems as far as Sevastopol, with the intention of carrying out attacks to destroy the Russian Black Sea fleet. As he stated before the prosecution, Musk's rejection was due to the possible consequences, specifically the possibility that the destruction of his fleet could result in a Russian nuclear attack. Kiev and its defenders are now using the argument that Musk had the opportunity to shorten the war - to give victory to Ukraine, of course - and rejected it, a fallacious argument considering that Ukraine does not have the capacity to destroy the Russian fleet in one fell swoop and that, even if this has been achieved, Russia has sufficient resources to continue the war. The attack of anger caused by this revelation, which should not have surprised Kiev,

The difficulties on the military front and also on the information front, in which Kiev has received harsher criticism than it is willing to accept, have made Zelensky target even his most faithful allies in his attack of reproaches. The objective remains the same, to achieve more sanctions against Russia and more weapons for his army, although the discourse has hardened significantly. “They are in heaven,” Zelensky said, adding that “this is how they stop our counteroffensive.” Zelensky's argument is that the heavier the weapons, the faster the conquest of territories. “Each meter released is equivalent to a human life,” said the Ukrainian president, so “the longer it takes, the more people will suffer,” an argument that can hardly find favor with his partners. What's more, one of the reproaches of the United States to its Kiev's proxy has been precisely the reluctance to use the Pentagon's tactic, which implies a greater number of casualties. Zelensky's reasoning has not changed: more weapons equals shortening the war , although the unprecedented flow of tanks and weapons and the results obtained do not corroborate the Ukrainian president's thesis.

The war has shown that heavier weaponry implies greater destruction, increasing casualties and escalation of war on both sides of the front, something that has been observed with long-range artillery and Western tanks and that is expected to be repeated with the F16s that will arrive on next year and the ATACMS missiles whose delivery Joe Biden now values. Still, the alleged slowness with which the West is gradually agreeing to send all those weapons on Ukraine's wish list seems to be the argument chosen by Ukraine to justify the slowness with which Ukraine is liberating territory. The reproach could not be clearer when the Ukrainian president justifies the slow progress of the counteroffensive by claiming that “when some partners say: what is happening with the counteroffensive, what will be the next steps? My answer is that currently our steps are surely faster than the new sanctions packages.” The voracity of war and its arrogance requires a constant flow of weapons to Ukraine and sanctions to Russia. Everything else is subject to the reproaches of those who have claimed the moral superiority of dictating all the terms.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/09/10/tempo ... more-28106

Google Translator

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Chronicle of a special military operation for September 9, 2023
September 9, 2023
Awakened dragon

The most fierce fighting continues in the Orekhovsky sector : all attempts by enemy assault groups to advance at Rabotino and Verbovoy were successfully stopped by small arms and artillery fire.

Meanwhile, in the Vremyevsky sector, Ukrainian formations, at the cost of losses, managed to occupy two houses in the north-east of Novomayorsky , and at Novodonetsky all attacks were successfully repelled by units of the Russian Armed Forces. At the same time, north of Priyutnoye Russian troops expanded the zone of control in the area of ​​​​the Grushevaya gully.

A difficult situation is developing on the southern flank of the defense of Bakhmut : the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to oust Russian military personnel from Andreevka , who retreated to the railway line. At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces are conducting counterattacks near Kleshcheevka , trying to regain control of previously lost territories.

But in the Kherson direction, no significant changes have occurred: Ukrainian formations continue to try to carry out forays into the islands in the Dnieper delta for the subsequent creation of bridgeheads there.

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The situation on the front line and the fighting

In the Starobelsky direction, the situation has not undergone significant changes: positional battles and artillery duels continue in the Kupyansky , Svatovsky and Kremensky sectors . Russian troops stopped all attempts by the enemy to advance, forcing him to retreat to his original lines with losses.

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In the Soledar direction, Ukrainian formations continue to make their way to the railway track in the south-west of Bakhmut: after passing to the north-eastern outskirts of Kleshcheevka , the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck near Andreevka . As a result of fierce fighting, enemy units were able to oust the Russian army soldiers from the village. According to some reports, the line of control of the Russian Armed Forces runs along the railway line. This is indirectly confirmed by the activity of Ukrainian reconnaissance groups north of Kurdyumovka. Detachments in armored vehicles are moving north of the Russian fortified area, which could not have happened if the Russian Armed Forces were present in Andreevka. There are also clashes in Kleshcheevka. Units of the Russian Armed Forces hold the northeastern outskirts and are trying to counterattack. The distance to the railway track is about 400 meters.

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In the Vremyevsky sector, detachments of Marines, under the cover of heavy artillery fire, almost without stopping, rolled into the positions of the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 40th Gvobrmp and 4th Infantry Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces at the Novodonetskoye - Novomayorskoye line . As a result of several attacks, Ukrainian formations were able to occupy two houses in the north-east of Novomayorsky across the Shaitanka River. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are holed up in the basement, and massive artillery fire from the Russian Armed Forces is coming at them. In the case of Novodonetsk, the situation for the enemy is even worse: attacks by infantry waves did not bring any results, the village is under the complete control of the Russian Armed Forces. According to it, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are using cluster munitions.


But at the Zolotaya Niva - Prechistovo line , marine reserves are concentrated. The 37th and 38th infantry infantry fighting units are being transferred to the area of ​​two settlements, and the total strength of the strike force is planned to be increased to 1 thousand people for a breakthrough to the south. Due to adjustments in plans and a change in direction to Novodonetskoye - Novomayorskoye near Priyutny and Urozhaynoye , the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping has been reduced, and now the enemy is conducting a positional defense. At the same time, north of Priyutnoye, Russian troops, according to some reports, were able to push Ukrainian units beyond the Grushevaya Balka, restoring the line of control several kilometers from Priyutnoye.

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In the Orekhovsky sector over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian formations have tried several times to break through the defenses of the Russian army at the line between Rabotino and Verbovoye . Near Verbovoy, three assault groups of the 82nd Special Assault Brigade and 46th Assault Brigade, 15 people each, under the cover of armored vehicles, attacked the positions of the Russian Armed Forces near Verbovoy, but to no avail: they were heavily targeted by artillery. Also, the combined detachments of the 46th brigade and the 47th brigade carried out at least five attacks from landings east of Rabotino to the heights northeast of Novopokropovka, control over which is necessary for further advancement to the south. As a result of the ensuing battle and concentrated fire from artillery, aircraft and tanks, the enemy was stopped. Some paratroopers of the 46th brigade refused to fight and fled from their positions.

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In the Kherson direction, yesterday afternoon, under the cover of 120-mm mortar crews, the command of the 126th Ukrainian Defense Brigade carried out the removal of the wounded and killed from Kozatsky Island after a suicidal sortie a couple of days ago. Despite heavy losses, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing for a new attack on the island. The command of the tactical group "Omaha", created for operations on the left bank of the Dnieper, is preparing new DRGs 131 orb and 126 arr TRO. Also a few kilometers from Tokarevka Yesterday a convoy of military equipment passed through and was stationed in populated areas on the right bank. Probably, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are strengthening their group to carry out larger attacks. And that night, Ukrainian units from two tactical groups “Omaha” and “Thunder” first landed 12 people on two boats in the eastern part of Aleshkinsky Island , and ten more people in the area of ​​the railway bridge.


That is, taking into account previous landings on the left bank of the Dnieper, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have small bridgeheads at the Antonovsky and railway bridge, on Aleshkinsky Island , west of the Cossack Camps , and will also resume attempts on Cossack. All this is accompanied by massive fire from cannon and rocket artillery of the 406th Regiment, as well as mortar crews and FPV drone operators. Considering the strengthening of the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping near the Dnieper and the increasingly massive incursions of the DRG along with the movement of the Spada air defense system positional area to the south, it can be assumed that the Ukrainian formations are preparing for an attack, which they most likely intend to coordinate with the actions in the Orekhovsky and Vremyevsky sectors.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas
Russian air defense systems intercepted three enemy drones in the north-west of the Crimean Peninsula : according to preliminary information, casualties and destruction were avoided.

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In the Bryansk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled the village of Zernovo , Suzemsky district: two residential buildings were partially damaged, but there were no casualties. There were problems with power supply in the village.

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Ukrainian formations continue to shell border settlements in the Belgorod region . In the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, a power line on the outskirts of the village of Staroselye was damaged , and in the Grayvoronsky urban district, shells hit two private households in Spodaryushino . There were no casualties in both incidents.

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces today again launched massive attacks on Donetsk , Gorlovka , Yasinovataya and other cities of the Donetsk agglomeration . In the Kiev district of the capital of the DPR, a man was killed under fire, and two more people were injured of varying degrees of severity. In addition, two young men were wounded in Yasinovataya and one man in Gorlovka.

Ukrainian formations continue to shell the Kherson region , where the first elections are being held after the region joined the Russian Federation. Sagi , Cossack Camps , Korsunka , Novaya Kakhovka , Kakhovka , Kardashinka , Krynki , Peschanovka , Aleshki , Novaya Zburevka came under attack . In Dnipro, Ukrainian drones dropped three FOGs on civilian buildings. Fortunately, no one was injured as a result of the incident

Political events
About training Ukrainians on armored vehicles from museums

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An interesting article was published in Forbes , where under the headline “ The Danes had to borrow Leopard 1 tanks from three museums to train Ukrainian crews ,” they talked about the use of old armored vehicles that had long been taken out of service. Information about “ the junk on which training takes place and the acute shortage of first-generation tanks in the West ” was immediately picked up by domestic channels and the media, talking about existing problems abroad.

Of course, there are problems, this is understandable given the losses in manpower and equipment. But we have said more than once that victorious reports even before the end of hostilities are not the best practice. In this case, renting museum exhibits is a completely logical measure to speed up the training of tank crews in the face of a shortage of Leopard 1s. The Americans did the same, taking even old M119 field artillery guns from US National Guard museums, which had been stored there for decades. The lack of standard infantry artillery support forced the West to pull out old weapons from stocks that are now used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

It’s the same here: despite the fact that they are outdated and their condition remains a big question, it is possible to train crews on them, which is what the Danes are doing. In addition, we must not forget that our command even removed the T-55 tanks from storage, which turned out to be a good weapon of destruction akin to self-propelled guns.

On the possible transfer of ATACMS missiles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces

ABC News, citing officials from the White House, reports that ATACMS missiles will most likely be transferred to Ukraine. In addition, their transfer may take place as part of the upcoming assistance package to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The launch range of these missiles is about 300 kilometers, and they can be launched using the HIMARS complexes that Ukraine already has. Among the missiles already available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine with a similar range, we can recall Storm Shadow and Scalp, but they are launched only from the air.

On Erdogan’s desire to resume the “grain deal”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on G20 countries to meet Russia's demands to resume the grain deal. In particular, the Turkish leader proposed easing sanctions that prevent the Russian Federation from exporting fertilizers and agricultural products, as well as importing agricultural equipment. Moscow and Kyiv have already responded to this statement. The head of the Presidential Office, Andrei Yermak, called for the sanctions against Russia not to be lifted. “Strength works, not compromises,” Ermak said. In turn, the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov said that the Kremlin is not satisfied with the proposed options for resuming the “grain deal.”

On the final statement of the G20 countries on Ukraine

The Financial Times writes that the West was extremely dissatisfied with the final statement of the G20 countries on Ukraine. Over the past year, the West has been trying to persuade countries in the so-called “Global South” to join a coalition against Russia. Let us recall that it was for this purpose that summits were held in Copenhagen and Saudi Arabia . The publication noted that last year’s G20 declaration spoke of “the aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine,” but now the parties limited themselves to only calls for diplomacy and peace. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has already criticized the G20, and also published Ukrainian “edits” to the G20 statement.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

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Way out of a protracted war: Ukraine makes a move. Part 2
September 8, 22:30

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Continuation of the excellent material devoted to the analysis of the summer offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The first part is here https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/d5589.html

Way out of a protracted war: Ukraine is making a move. Part 2


Problem 1: The Hidden Defensive Line

It must be admitted that everyone has somehow overlooked the Russian defense. Earlier, I wrote that Ukrainian troops would not be able to break through it. But he mistakenly believed that it would be built according to the classic Soviet principle of defense in depth (described in detail, for example, in the works of David Glantz).

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Such a defense, simply put, implies the possibility of the enemy breaking through the first or even the second line of defense. The goal of a multi-layered (or, in classical terminology, “layered”) defense is to ensure that the enemy gets stuck in it when trying to break through.

He can penetrate the first echelon, but as he advances, he is constantly crushed by subsequent echelons. A classic example is the Battle of Kursk, where powerful German tanks broke through the Soviet defensive line, but then got stuck in it and were destroyed. An analogy can be drawn with a Kevlar bulletproof vest, in which a multilayer web of fibers is used to protect against a damaging factor: the bullet does not bounce, but is delayed, and its energy is absorbed.

I assumed the idea that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would be able to achieve a breakthrough of some echelons, but I believed that they would get stuck in the next ones and be incinerated.

What I missed, and this is the merit of the Russian command - a hidden defensive line in front of the main trenches and fortifications. This forward belt consisted of extremely dense minefields and strongly held forward positions in the supply zone (forefield). And the Russians, obviously, intended to wage a fierce struggle for them. Instead of breaking through the first echelon and getting stuck in the intermediate zones, the Ukrainians were repeatedly battered in the protective zone. And when they managed to gain a foothold, the Russians successively counterattacked to push them back.

We expected that Russia would conduct a defense in depth, absorbing the Ukrainian forces that were breaking through and grinding them down in the depths of the defensive lines. In fact, they showed a strong commitment to defending their forward positions, the most famous of which was the village of Rabotino.

It was assumed that Rabotino would become part of the so-called “deformation zone” or “security zone”. An easily vulnerable buffer, where the enemy is subjected to pre-arranged shelling before he comes across the first belt of continuous and solid defense. And according to aerial and satellite surveys of the area taken before the start of the Ukrainian offensive, Rabotino was at a considerable distance from the first echelon of Russian fortifications.

It was overlooked that the RF Armed Forces had mined areas on the outskirts of Rabotino and intended to defend themselves within the security zone. The scale of mining, of course, surprised the Ukrainians. This created a strain on their already limited engineering troops. Moreover, dense minefields force the Armed Forces of Ukraine to move along pre-prepared paths, to repeatedly cross the same lanes of fire and Russian countermeasures.

Problem 2: Insufficient fire suppression

Characteristic scenes in the first large-scale offensives were uncovered columns of maneuverable forces and means of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Which were subjected to fire from the ground (rockets, ATGMs, cannon artillery) and from the air (for example, from Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters). What was most striking was that Ukrainian troops came under heavy fire while still in marching columns, suffering losses before they reached the firing lines to launch an offensive.

There are many reasons for this. One of them is the now familiar problem of lack of ammunition. On the eve of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians carried out powerful air and missile strikes that knocked out large ammunition depots. And when the first Ukrainian attacks collapsed due to the powerful unsuppressed fire of Russian troops, the United States decided to transfer cluster munitions to Ukraine. Because, according to Biden: “they are running out of ammunition.”

Add to this the degradation of Ukrainian air defense, which allows Russian helicopters to operate extremely effectively along the line of contact, and you get a recipe for disaster. Having neither artillery to suppress Russian fire, nor air defense to drive away Russian aircraft, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began their offensive, unsuccessfully throwing uncovered mobile units under a hail of fire.

Issue 3: Russian Countermeasures

It's important to understand that the mix of Russian weapons now is fundamentally different from what it was during the Battle of Kherson last year. Thanks to the rapid growth of production - primarily the "Lancet" and adjustable gliding modules for airborne free-fall bombs.

The main superstar, of course, was The Lancet. It is believed that this loitering ammunition accounts for almost half of the defeats of Ukrainian artillery. It also filled a critical capacity gap that had been troubling the Russian army in the first year of the war. Contrary to Western estimates that it is unable to produce enough drones, Russia has successfully ramped up production of Lancets in a short period of time. It also launched mass production of other systems, such as Geranium strike drones.

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The proliferation of the Lancet and similar systems means that there are no more safe places within a radius of 30 km from the line of contact. They disrupt the deployment of critical support assets such as air defense and engineering vehicles. Increasing the vulnerability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Russian mines and fire. The use of Ukrainian artillery in the Rabotino region was reduced due to the threat from the Lancets. It seems that they are transferring artillery to other sectors of the front, preferring to use HIMARS to suppress the enemy.

Problem 4: Reusing Entry Paths

The Armed Forces of Ukraine failed to make a breakthrough in the Rabotino sector on the first attempt, and they are forced to constantly pull up additional units and resources to attack these positions. Moreover, they have to overcome the same paths of entry into battle, use the same rear area to collect and deploy strike forces.

This greatly simplifies the task of Russian intelligence, since the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have an effective way to disperse forces and assets or hide their transfer. The formed Ukrainian forces and materiel repeatedly took refuge in the villages located directly behind the city of Orekhov - Tavriysky and Omelnik.

Russia is able to strike at the rear infrastructure, such as ammunition depots. And, frankly, there are not many places where these facilities can be deployed if you repeatedly step on the same 20 km wide front.

Recently, Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Anna Malyar complained that the 82nd brigade, recently deployed near Orekhov, was subjected to a series of Russian airstrikes. And she claimed that this was due to non-compliance with the secrecy regime, as a result of which the Russians became aware of the whereabouts of the brigade.

However, this is pointless: the entire area of ​​the operation around the city of Orekhov is no more than 25 km deep (from the village of Kopani to Tavriysky) and 20 km wide (from Kopani to Verbovoye). This is a small area where, throughout the summer, a huge number of troops passed along the same roads. The idea that Russia needs some kind of insider information to start monitoring and destroying targets in the area is absurd.

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Issue 5: Fragile Crews

To “destroy” an operational-level unit requires significantly fewer casualties than is commonly believed. It can be disabled already at 30% losses (depending on how they are distributed). When people hear the term "annihilation" they think it means total loss. In colloquial speech, this word is used in this sense, but for the military it is important whether the formation is capable of performing the tasks assigned to it. And this opportunity may disappear much faster than it seems.

For a number of reasons, this is especially true for Ukrainian armored vehicles. Firstly, these brigades began combat operations seriously understaffed (for example, the Ukrainian 82nd brigade has only 90 Stryker armored vehicles, and the American one has at least 300). And these brigades are hastily put together from separate parts and do not have their own repair base.

Ukrainians have to engage in cannibalization. They allocate “donor” equipment, which they write off for disassembly for spare parts. This means that initially understaffed mechanized brigades will have a monstrously low coefficient of equipment replenishment and will face a hidden decline due to cannibalization.

When by mid-July Ukraine had already lost 20% of its maneuverable forces and assets, this led to a catastrophic decrease in combat capability. The leading brigades, which have used up 50% or more of their maneuverable assets, are no longer able to properly carry out their combat missions. And the Ukrainians are forced to prematurely bring second-echelon units into battle.

At the moment, there are remnants of at least ten different brigades in the Rabotino area, and the 82nd may soon join them. But NATO's plan to build up the combat power of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provided for the deployment of only 9 retrained brigades, plus several restored Ukrainian formations. And we can confidently say that spending all these forces on 71-day battles only for a breakthrough in the foreground was not part of their plans.

A look into the abyss

I have seen many comments from analysts and writers that the introduction of additional Ukrainian units into the Rabotino sector is a signal for the start of the next phase of the operation. This is complete nonsense!

Ukraine is still in the first phase of the offensive. And only the failure of the brigades of the first echelon forced them to send the second (and third) wave to carry out the tasks of the initial stage. The initial attack by the 47th Brigade was intended to break through the supply zone around Rabotino and move further south towards the main defensive lines. This failed, and now, in order to achieve the goals of the first phase of the offensive, additional brigades are systematically introduced into battle, previously intended to enter the breakthrough - the 116th, 117th, 118th, 82nd, 33rd and others.

These brigades have not yet been destroyed, as they are brought into battle in parts. At the moment, Ukrainian losses make up the majority of the entire brigade, scattered among smaller units. More than 300 units of maneuverable equipment (tanks and armored vehicles) have been lost. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are slowly but surely burning their entire task force, but have not yet broken through the Russian security zone. The great counter-offensive turns into a military disaster.

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This does not mean that the operation failed, if only because it is still ongoing. History teaches that it is unwise to draw premature conclusions. Luck and the human factor (courage and intelligence, cowardice and stupidity) can always affect the situation. But so far, the trajectory of events is undoubtedly leading to the complete failure of Ukraine.

The APU is still trying to somehow adapt. For example, they abandoned the tactics of advancing mechanized columns without support. And they are now relying on small detachments of infantry, slowly trying to move forward in the area between Rabotino and Verbov. The shift to dispersal is intended to reduce the level of losses, but further reduces the likelihood of a sharp breakout. And it marks a temporary renunciation of decisive action and the transition to that very protracted positional war.

It should be noted that in this whole story there are tangible Russian losses. The Russian troops in the Rabotino sector needed rotation and reinforcement, including at the expense of the elite units of the Airborne Forces and the Marine Corps. Russia suffered losses from counter-battery fire, lost equipment in counterattacks, people who held their positions died. The initial assault groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had great combat power. The fighting was bloody for both sides. This is not a one-sided shooting range, but a high-intensity war.

But the fact of the matter is that Ukraine does not seem to be able to get out of the positional war in which it finds itself. The proclamation of a return to "maneuver warfare" is, of course, a good thing. But if there is no way to break through the enemy’s defenses, all this is just empty bragging. The nature of the struggle is still protracted. And if you have a question: “will we have time to break through the defense before we run out of forces and means” - this is not a maneuver, but a retreat.

In my series of articles on military history, I have considered many cases where armies were desperately trying to open the front and restore the state of operational maneuver. But when there are no technical possibilities for this, all these intentions do not matter in the slightest. No one wants to be on the other side of the loss count, but sometimes what you want doesn't matter at all. Sometimes exhaustion is simply imposed on you.

Without the ability to successfully break through Russia's powerful defenses—more long-range guns, air defenses, surveillance and reconnaissance, electronic warfare, military engineering, and more—Ukraine is trapped in a rough fight. Two big men brandishing clubs, and Russia has more of it.

Two bad reasons

Against the background of a clear misfire and growing strategic frustration, two new narratives are increasingly heard. They are used to explain why the Ukrainian operation is actually going great (despite the almost universal recognition in the West that its results are, at best, unsatisfactory). I would like to dwell briefly on each of them.

Rationale No. 1: “The first stage is the most difficult”

One can often come across the statement that it is enough for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to break through the security zone and the rest of the defensive structures will fall like dominoes. Allegedly, the Russians have no reserves, and the subsequent defensive lines are understaffed. If you break through the first one, the rest will immediately collapse.

Perhaps such thoughts reassure someone, but they are rather irrational. One can start with the Russian doctrinal scheme of defense in depth, which assumes the free distribution of reserves throughout the depths of the defense system. But it is probably more fruitful to turn to visual evidence.

Consider the behavior of Russia over the past six months - it has spent huge efforts on the creation of defense in depth. Really, to waste all their fighting power in the battles right in front of them?

There is no evidence that Russia is experiencing difficulties in providing the front with manpower. We are seeing constant rotations and redeployments against the backdrop of the general process of expanding the armed forces. Of the two warring parties, it is Ukraine that is now scraping the bottom of the barrel in search of manpower.

Rationale #2: “Get within gunshot range”

This is more of a fantasy story, a radical reversal of the original goals. The narrative is that Ukraine does not really need to move towards the sea and physically cut the land bridge. It is enough just to approach the supply routes within firing range to cut off the Russian troops. This theory is actively promoted on social network X (Twitter) by such personalities as Peter Zeihan (a man who knows nothing about military affairs).

There are many problems with this theory, most of which stem from an overestimation of the concept of "fire control". Simply put, being "in range" of artillery fire does not mean effectively blocking territory or cutting supply lines. If this were the case, then Ukraine would not be able to attack from Orekhov at all, since the entire direction of its entry into the battle lines is within the Russian zone of fire. In Bakhmut, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continued to fight for a long time after their main supply routes fell into the zone of destruction of Russian troops.

Most combat missions are accomplished within reach of at least part of the enemy's long-range weapons. And the idea that Russia will collapse if the Armed Forces of Ukraine manage to shoot to the coastal route near the Sea of ​​Azov is rather ridiculous. After all, Russia's main rail supply line is already in the range of Ukrainian HIMARS, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are successfully attacking coastal cities such as Berdyansk.

At the same time, Russia regularly strikes at the Ukrainian rear infrastructure - and so far not one of the armies has collapsed. This is because long-range fire weapons are a tool that allows you to increase enemy losses and achieve operational goals. But they don't win wars just by getting in the way of his supply.

But let's assume that the Ukrainians still manage to advance - not all the way to the coast, but far enough that Russia's main supply lines were within artillery range. What will they do? Will they bring a battery of howitzers, put them on the very front line and start firing at the road non-stop? What do you think will happen to these howitzers?

The counter-battery systems will surely cover them. The idea that you can just bring in a big gun and start shooting at Russian supply trucks is actually quite childish. Depriving enemy troops of supplies has always required physically blocking transit, and this is exactly what Ukraine will have to do if it wants to cut the Russian land bridge.

red herring

We must not forget about the second direction of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - in the east, in the Donetsk region. Here the Ukrainians advanced a considerable distance along the highway from the village. Velikaya Novosyolka, capturing several settlements.

The problem with this “other” Ukrainian offensive is that it is, in a word, meaningless. This direction of attack is in the most important operational sense fruitless, since it involves the advance of groups along a narrow corridor of the road that does not lead to anything important.

As in the Rabotino sector, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are located at a considerable distance from serious Russian fortifications, and, even worse, the road and settlements in this direction lie along a small river. Rivers are known to flow in lowlands, which means that the road runs along the bottom of the wadi / dam / glacis - choose the term you like. In fact, this road network is nothing but a single-lane road on both sides of the river.

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I believe that this direction was planned as a ploy to create the appearance of operational confusion. But when the main efforts in the Orekhovskoye direction turned into a colossal misfire, it was decided to continue this offensive for propaganda purposes. Ultimately, this is simply not the axis of attack that can have a significant impact on the course of the war as a whole. The forces deployed here are relatively minor on the scale of everything that is going on, and they are not going to move towards anything important. A breakthrough as thin as a needle will not allow you to go more than 80 km along a single-lane road to the sea and win the war.

Conclusion: Mutual Reproaches

One of the surest signs that Ukraine's counteroffensive has taken a disastrous turn is how Kyiv and Washington began to blame each other "until the dead man cools." Zelenskiy accused the West of being too slow to deliver the necessary equipment and ammunition, arguing that unacceptable delays allowed the Russians to improve their defenses. This seems rather vulgar and ungrateful to me. NATO created a new army for Ukraine from scratch in the face of a significant reduction in training time.

For their part, Western experts began to accuse Ukraine of allegedly not being able to use "combined arms combat." This is indeed a very ridiculous attempt to use terminology (and, moreover, incorrectly) to justify the problem. “Combined Arms” is the combination and simultaneous use of various types of weapons, such as armored vehicles, infantry, artillery and aviation.

To say that Ukraine and Russia are incapable of this intellectually or organizationally is extremely stupid. The Red Army had a complex and extremely deep doctrine of joint operations. One of the professors of the US School of Advanced Military Studies noted that: “The most complete core of theoretical works on operational art can still be found in Soviet authors.” The idea that joint operations is some kind of alien and innovative concept for Soviet officers (a caste that includes the high command of Russia and Ukraine) is simply ridiculous.

And the point here is not in some kind of doctrinal stubbornness of Ukraine, but in a combination of structural factors caused by the insufficiency of its combat power and the changing nature of military operations.

It is foolish to argue that Ukraine needs to learn “joint operations” when it does not have the important means to successfully wage a war of maneuver. For example, adequate long-range means, active aviation (and no F-16 will fix this), engineering means and electronic warfare.

In fact, this is not about doctrinal flexibility, but about real possibilities. You can draw an analogy with how if a boxer was sent to a fight with a broken arm, and then his technique was criticized. The problem is not in technique - the problem is that he is injured and physically weaker than his opponent. Ukraine's problem is not that they are unable to coordinate the actions of the branches and branches of the armed forces, but that their arms are broken.

In addition, and this, to be honest, shocks me, Western observers do not seem to admit the possibility that the accuracy of modern long-range weapons (be it Lancet drones, guided artillery shells or GMLRS missiles for HIMARS), combined with the density of surveillance systems and reconnaissance, may (except in very specific circumstances) make large-scale mobile operations impossible.

When the enemy is able to monitor concentration areas, strike with cruise missiles and drones at infrastructure facilities in the rear, accurately shoot at approaches with artillery and cover the ground with mines, how can one maneuver at all?

Joint operations and maneuvering offer the possibility of a rapid concentration of huge combat power and violent attacks at weak points. This is impossible, given the density of Russian intelligence and firepower, as well as the many obstacles they have erected in order to deprive the Armed Forces of freedom of movement and fetter their actions. The main examples of maneuvering in Western history, the campaigns in Iraq, have very little to do with the situation in Zaporozhye.

Ultimately, we returned to war with large forces, with extensive use of reconnaissance and destruction. The only way for Ukraine to maneuver the way they want is to break through the front.

What can be done only with the help of more of everything you need - sapper equipment, shells and artillery, missiles, armored vehicles. Only mass character can make a suitable gap in the Russian borders, otherwise they run the risk of getting bogged down in a protracted defense breakthrough. And to criticize them for failing to grasp some magical Western concept of “joint operations” is the strangest kind of reproach.

How will the war develop further? The question is whether we will believe that Ukraine will someday still have a more powerful assault potential than the one with which it started the summer. The answer is obvious - no.

Putting together these understaffed brigades is like pulling their teeth in advance. The hope that after the defeat in the battle for Zaporozhye, NATO will miraculously raise an even stronger contingent for Ukraine seems far-fetched. What's more, US officials have made it quite clear that it was the best mechanized force Ukraine could get.

It is foolish to argue with the claim that this was Ukraine's best chance for a real operational victory, which is now slowly turning into modest but extremely costly tactical successes. As a result, Ukraine will not be able to avoid a war of attrition. And this is the kind of war she can't win. Due to all those disproportions that we talked about earlier.

And yet, Ukraine will not be able to win a protracted positional war because of its own maximalist definition of the concept of “victory”. Kyiv insists it will not surrender until it returns to its 1991 borders. And the inability to dislodge Russian troops presents a particularly vexing problem. Either accept defeat and Russian control of the annexed territories or continue to fight hard until Ukraine becomes a failed state.

Trapped in a baton fight where attempts to unlock the front through maneuvers are nil, what Ukraine needs most is a much larger baton. The alternative is a complete strategic disaster.

(c) Big Serge https://substack.com/@bigserge

https://telegra.ph/Vyhod-iz-zatyazhnoj- ... evod-09-05 - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8620596.html

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Ukraine SitRep: Western Military Commentators Finally Accept The Obvious

The Kuebler-Ross model of grief describes the human coping mechanism to deal with extremely difficult situations. It has five phases:

*denial - "No, not me, it cannot be true"
*anger - "Why me?"
*bargaining - attempting to postpone death with "good behaviour"
*depression - when reacting to their illness, and preparing for their death
*acceptance - "The final rest before the long journey"


With regard to the Ukrainian counter-offensive the last phase of the grief model has now been reached.

While not all politician are yet there, the military and intelligence specialists, who are part of the western propaganda squads, have made their conclusions. From their mouth the truth is dripping to the media. While the headlines below may not express it, the content of those pieces, especially in the first four, is finally admitting the obvious. It didn't work and the counter-offensive is done:

*Stormbreak: Fighting Through Russian Defences in Ukraine’s 2023 Offensive - RUSI - September 4
*Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months - War on the Rocks - September 4
*The Russians Are Getting Better - What Moscow Has Learned in Ukraine - Foreign Affairs, September 6
*How the Pentagon assesses Ukraine’s progress - Economist - September 6
*US Intelligence Official: Media Misleading Americans About Ukraine’s Battlefield Success - Hersh via Scheerpost - September 7
*NATO learning hard lessons about its future in Ukraine - Asia Times - September 7
*How Ukraine’s Heroic Stand Against Russia Could Collapse Into Failure- 1945 - September 7
*Ukrainian Progress: A Breach or a Breakthrough of Russian Lines? - War on the Rocks - September 8
*How Russia learned from mistakes to slow Ukraine’s counteroffensive - Washington Post - September 8


Simplicius has taken several of the above pieces apart and finds that they finally admit that the issue is lost:

Dire New Western Reports Call to Ditch NATO Tactics
Plus a roundup of other grist from the Western propaganda mill


Nothing of the above is new to Moon of Alabama readers. I may have helped to spare you the grief by not clinging to a the narrative but to the reality of the battlefield:

*On The Failure Of The Ukrainian Counterattack - June 16
*The Ukrainian Counter-Offensive Had No Chance. NATO Failed To Explain That. - June 23
*Reality Defeats The War Narrative - July 18
*Ukraine SitRep: The End Of The Counteroffensive - August 11


This outcome of the counteroffensive against the hardened Russian defense lines was predictable (May 11!):

In military books this is know as 'echeloned defense' with three lines of well prepared positions ten kilometer apart from each other. Each line consists of tank obstacles, mine belts, prepared anti-tank positions to monitor and counter potential breach attempts and well prepared artillery support from behind the next defense line.
To crack such a nut without air support and without significant artillery advantage is nearly impossible.


But the Ukrainians did even worse than I had thought. The delaying action by the Russian army stopped them before they even reached the first defense line.

What may come next was predicted here on June 5, the day the counter-offensive was launched:

I strongly suspect that the Russian military will let the Ukrainian attacks run their course to then launch its own larger scale attacks against weakened Ukrainian defenses.

But to this day and while taking heavy losses the Ukrainian army is still running head first into a wall of Russian fire and concrete barriers. It may well keep going for another few weeks until the rain seasons sets in. That will lessen the chance of a renewed Russian attack. I have no idea yet of what might come instead of one.

To cope with the situation and bad news the U.S. will now send in a new wonder-weapon, the ATAMCS missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometer (190 miles). They come in several variants but the U.S. army will only be willing to hand over its older ones and only a few. The missiles are GPS guided which is unlikely to work well as Russia has sufficient electronic warfare assets that will disturb those signals. Some of these missiles will just divert from their target. Some will be shot down by air defenses. Some will come through. The 230 kilogram warhead can create quite a mess if it hits a large headquarter.

But keep in mind that the Russian forces are now regularly using FAB 500 glide bombs that come with nearly 500 kilogram of explosives. The bigger FAB 1500 have been tested too and are ready to be deployed. The new ATAMCS missiles will thereby not change the balance of force.

Former ambassador MK Bhadrakumar is sensing some diplomatic noise that might point to upcoming talks.

[Ice cracking sounds on frozen lake of US-Russia relations https://www.indianpunchline.com/ice-cra ... relations/

Talks may well follow but I would not expect any agreement. The Russian side will hold up its demands and the U.S. will still be unwilling to fulfill them. Not even a ceasefire will result from them.

Posted by b on September 9, 2023 at 14:44 UTC | Permalink
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Sun Sep 10, 2023 9:38 pm

Disabled people are welcome too
September 10, 15:02

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Disabled people are welcome too

In Ukraine, at the official level, they announced that they were going to eliminate the institution of “limitedly fit for military service.” They plan to limit themselves to only “fit” and “unfit”. The elimination of an entire category of citizens who can legally evade total mobilization is a direct consequence of the need to intensify forced recruitment into the army to compensate for the heavy irretrievable losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and replace depleted human resources.

At the moment, we see that after the failed summer offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, where losses reached, according to official data, 66 thousand people, the enemy is systematically preparing to call up a significant number of people, for which a number of decisions have already been made.

1. Registration of women for military service from October 1 with a possible subsequent ban on leaving the country.
2. Appeals to EU and NATO countries with a demand to extradite potential refugee soldiers to Ukraine.
3. Reducing the criteria that would allow students ( https://vk.com/wall-211411957_883003 ) to evade mobilization.
4. Reducing the criteria that would allow people with disabilities ( https://vz.ru/news/2023/9/3/1228679.html ) to evade mobilization.
5. Well, now there’s also the elimination of “limitedly fit” citizens.

And these are probably not the last innovations that will “delight” the residents of Ukraine in the near future. Of course, if the enemy had the opportunity to call up completely healthy people, and even according to the old legal criteria, he would have used this opportunity. But she's not there. The limit of volunteers has long been exhausted, and ordinary citizens, seeing cemeteries growing throughout the country, are trying with all their might to avoid the fate of death.

Sporadic protests by ordinary citizens of Ukraine, who naively refer to some rights and laws that no longer mean anything, have little effect in the conditions of unleashed terror against those who do not agree with the “war to the last Ukrainian.” It is curious that at the same time, the war itself, which was talked about in Ukraine even before the start of the Northern Military District, has still not been declared. But at the same time, at the front, the Zelensky regime has already put hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians into the ground.

The United States, of course, does not care about these losses, as well as the legitimacy of the mobilization of Ukrainians. For Washington, this is simply a consumable item at a bargain price.

Especially for RT https://t.me/c/1686844692/4719

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8624150.html

Reflecting a night attack on Crimea. 09/10/2023
September 10, 12:07

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Reflecting a night attack on Crimea. 09/10/2023

Yesterday, at around 21.00, at least six boats with personnel from the main intelligence department and special operations forces of Ukraine set out from Zatoka in the direction of Crimea, who again wanted to land at Cape Tarkhankut.

But their plans were not destined to come true ( https://t.me/rybar/51731 ): a Su-24M naval aviation bomber was immediately sent in their direction, which dropped four RBK-500PTAB cluster bombs on a group of boats southeast of Zatoka -1M with anti-tank cumulative elements.

As a result, three enemy watercraft immediately sank to the bottom along with the landing force, and the rest turned around and departed in the direction of Vilkovo, where they returned by midnight, bypassing Zmeiny Island.

And from 3 am on September 10, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to attack military targets on Tarkhankut with attack drones, but the attack was repelled. Units of the 31st Air Force and Air Defense Division shot down eight drones: two were destroyed by Pantsir, four by rifle squads, and two more were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Probably, the enemy intended to combine an attack on Tarkhankut with a UAV raid - the boats would have just approached the shores of Crimea by the time the drones arrived, which would have had a better effect. But Russian troops once again successfully repelled the attack.

Moreover, the sortie was supposed to take place on Friday, September 8th. Then the DRGs were sent to Zmeinoye on boats, from where they were supposed to head to the Crimea. However, Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft struck with several FABs, hitting a cluster of power steering and special forces and foiling the enemy’s plans.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/97125 - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8624075.html

Google Translator

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Why Belgium is not sending F-16s to Ukraine

It would be fair to say that the leading French language daily newspaper in Belgium, Le Soir, is a handmaiden to the Belgian government in disseminating state approved propaganda about Russia and about the Russian-Ukraine war. This is a badge of honor, or of disgrace, depending on your point of view. But this fact makes it especially interesting that yesterday’s print edition devoted a full page to the issue of sending F-16s to Ukraine written by the head of its “World” staff, Philippe de Boeck. In this long text we find information about the Belgian air force that ordinarily does not circulate widely and which tells us a great deal about why it is NATO, rather than Russia that is being critically weakened by the war.

The headline space of this article is taken by a quotation from Joseph Henrotin, a Belgian political scientist who holds senior positions at several French think tanks specialized in military strategy and risk analysis, and is also editor in chief of the magazine Défense et sécurité international. Said Henrotin: “If it really wanted to do so, Belgium could deliver the F-16 to Ukraine.” The subtitle goes on to say: “If the West wishes the war to end quickly, Kiev’s allies have every reason to provide a maximum of fighter planes to Ukraine as quickly as possible, Joseph Henrotin believes. He explains why.”

The author reminds readers that for several months Ukraine has been demanding F-16s, ideally between 120 and 160 of them. Last week three member states of NATO, The Netherlands, Denmark and Norway announced that they will deliver about sixty planes. Belgium has agreed to train pilots and support mechanics but not to supply planes.

My final quote from the introductory section of the article intended to whet the appetite of readers is a couple of sentences set in bold typeface: “The general responsible for procurement at the Ministry of Defense declared recently to the Standaard [Belgian Dutch language daily] that Belgium could not deliver the F-16 to Ukraine because they will be at the end of their service life when their successors arrive. Is this true or false?”

After this tantalizing opening, the article does not disappoint. It provides detailed information on the considerations that the Belgium government has weighed in reaching its decision not to send any of its F-16s to Kiev. The technical considerations have been released to the public, it appears, while the driving motive, political, has not.

The technical considerations are that the Belgian fleet of F-16s is approaching the end of its service life of 8,000 flight hours, which, considering annual flying time, equates to about 25 years. However, the replacement jets, F-35s, will be delivered to Belgium only after a delay of several years and spread over a number years following initial deliveries. Therefore, any planes which Belgium could eventually send to Ukraine would be worthless in the operational sense. And even those presently sitting on Belgian runways are not of the first freshness. Their hours of remaining flight time are numbered.

Within the article, this argument is countered by the remark that Ukraine is in the midst of war, that it needs to put together a large number of planes to present a threat to Russian forces that could lead to peace talks on favorable terms, and it is irrelevant how many hours of flying time are left on any individual planes. Even a couple of hours would be better than nothing. This is said as if the Russians are incapable of reading these very lines.

The political argument is that Belgium has certain force level obligations to NATO and that reducing its fleet before replacement aircraft are delivered would violate these obligations. We are left to believe that the member states who declared their readiness to part with them will be taking delivery of F-35s well before Belgium and so will be taking lesser risks to their own defense capabilities. But is this in fact true, or are these three countries less risk averse than Belgium.

My overall conclusion from this important article is that with respect to aircraft, just as with regard to tanks and artillery munitions, Europe’s store of materiel that would be needed should it find itself in a hot war with Russia is barely adequate and continues to be depleted voluntarily through shipments to Ukraine where it is systematically and rather quickly destroyed by Russian forces. Who is being “demilitarized”? Is it Germany and the UK, or is it Ukraine?

Meanwhile, we are fairly sure that the Russians have been holding back from the conflict their most advanced military equipment which would be used against NATO should the proxy war turn into a hot war. Its hypersonic missiles have been used very sparingly. Their latest generation tank only made its appearance on the battlefield a couple of weeks ago. And the likely contract to be signed in coming days with North Korea to supply artillery shells will be to top up Russia’s stores for the day war with NATO comes, not to be fired from the tubes in Donbas next week.

Going back to first assumptions when the United States provoked Russia into invading Ukraine to remove the threat of NATO installations there, it was expected in Washington, London, Brussels and Berlin that the combination of military destruction by superior hardware and by NATO-trained forces and economic destruction on Russia by the “sanctions from hell” would greatly weaken the country for a generation to come. Then the United States would be free to move on to tame its greater global competitor, China.

However, Russia was able to overcome the impact of the sanctions rather quickly by reorganizing its trading patterns away from the West and towards China, India and other friendly nations. Even oil sales which collapsed in January after the latest round of sanctions took effect, have recovered fully in dollar terms now that the payments are recorded for shipments to the new Far Eastern markets which take months to reach customers. And on the battlefield, Russia quickly adapted to the new conditions of ground warfare, showing technological prowess that has had devastating effect on the celebrated U.K., German and other Western equipment, while Russia’s artillery superiority forced the West to empty its warehouses if the Ukrainians were to have any chance to respond after their own Soviet vintage shells were wholly depleted.

All of the foregoing persuades me that if and when Russia overwhelms the Ukrainian army by unleashing its own offensive and a Ukrainian defeat is there for all to see, the Biden Administration will not escalate but will walk away from its and NATO’s disaster. The United States and NATO have left themselves lacking the wherewithal to defeat Russia by conventional arms and resort to nuclear weapons can lead all too quickly in a direction that everyone in Washington fears more than anything else.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/09/09/ ... o-ukraine/

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Friday, September 8, 2023
Ah, Another No Shit Moment.

But before reading the news, a short walk down the memory lane. Remember 2009?

Sarkozy said on Wednesday, March 11, that France would return to the NATO military command and seek a larger role as a full partner of the United States and its other Atlantic allies. "NATO is the only major organization in the world in which France does not seek to have a major say," Sarkozy said in a speech in Paris. "It's time to put an end to this situation. "The national interest of France must lead to a return to NATO," he added. France's return to the NATO command would also increase Europe's influence within the alliance and bolster the defense of continent, Sarkozy said. The president's speech heralding the move came 43 years after Charles de Gaulle pulled France out of NATO's military command and evicted US military bases from French soil. While it is returning to the military command, Sarkozy said Paris would retain its independent nuclear capabilities and officials said France did not plan to join the organization's nuclear planning committee.

Now, that we refreshed our memory--fast forward to 2023 yesterday.

Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy has spoken out against Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO, arguing that the move would not bring peace to Europe and would chip away at the continent’s independence. Speaking to France 5 TV broadcaster on Wednesday, Sarkozy reiterated his calls for a compromise between Moscow and Kiev, noting that the conflict had already claimed the lives of around half a million of people, most of whom were Ukrainian. “But we continue because in the Boulevard Saint-Germain they are very brave in terms of sending young Ukrainians to die,” he added, referring to the street that has gained a reputation as a venue for fiery political debate among French intellectuals.

European "independence"? LOL. Next thing you know, Napoleon won his campaign in Russia in 1812. Ah, wait, many French, including their "historians" are convinced that he did, if not for that damn Russian winter and, you know, that feeble inconsequential Russian Army, which in 1814 entered Paris. It is official, European politicians are morons. As for French "intellectuals", LOL again. The level of French "intellectuals" are fanatics such as Henri Bernard Levi. But then again, French lost their country and live in a complete denial.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/09 ... memnt.html

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Ukraine: Is the USA changing proxies in midstream?

With the counteroffensive proven to be a dead duck, all the ‘friends’ of Ukraine who egged it on to an impossible ‘victory’ are blaming the proxies for losing the war.

Lalkar writers
Thursday 7 September 2023

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Just as the Ukrainians are being used as so much disposable cannon fodder by the imperialists, so foreign mercenaries are used by Nato’s Ukrainian army. Used to swell the ranks for kamikaze assaults on Russian positions, the numbers of their fallen are uncounted and their wounded are left to bleed out until all Ukrainians have been evacuated.
As the fabled Ukrainian ‘counteroffensive’ against Russian forces stutters on with nothing to show for itself save a few terrorist spectaculars (like the drone attack on the Kremlin and drone attacks on the Kerch bridge and a Russian oil tanker) and a mounting death toll, it is proving increasingly difficult to conceal from the world what a disaster for the Ukrainian people has been their leaders’ decision to turn their country into a launchpad for a failing imperialist proxy war against Russia.

Periodic claims that this or that village has passed from Russia to Ukraine are dutifully hailed by western media as marking a “glimmer of hope” or even a “turning point” in the war, only to be quietly dropped days later, making way for the next hyperinflated claims to be churned out by actor-president Volodymyr Zelensky and his PR team.

When the southeastern village of Staromaiorske (a village of only about 200 houses, but said to be of some strategic significance) passed briefly into Ukronazi control, President Zelensky took it upon himself to announce this supposed feat of arms in person. Much was made of the street-fighting prowess of the Ukrainians when pitted against heavy odds. When, a little later, it came to light that the village had already swung back to Russian control, the matter was quietly dropped.

The sober truth is that such protracted and bloody encounters in the ‘grey zone’ between Ukrainian and Russian lines, whilst draining the manpower and materiel available to the Ukronazi forces, have yet to make any real headway against Russia’s formidable defences.

Even the imperialist media are obliged to start reflecting at least some of the truth about the war the west is so visibly losing. Here is Carlotta Gall writing in the New York Times:

“A soldier at a medical post, awaiting evacuation for a concussion, recently described how his battalion had been decimated when it came under Russian artillery and tank fire. His brigade, the 23rd, was one of nine newly-formed, western-trained units prepared and equipped for the counteroffensive. But the brigade, he said, had been thrown into the fight without sufficient artillery support and had been unable to defend themselves against Russian firepower.

“In one battle in which his unit took part, Ukrainian soldiers attacked in ten American-made MaxxPro armoured vehicles, but only one came back, he said. He showed photographs of the damaged vehicles, ripped open and burned out, which he said had been hauled back to a repair base. The soldier declined to give his name for fear of getting into trouble with his superiors. The soldier lost a 22-year-old friend, Stas, in the shelling the day before, he said, adding that in just over a month, his battalion had suffered so many dead and wounded that only ten men remained at the front line. Previously that battalion has had some 400 to 500 men.”

Another told Gall: “We were shot like on a shooting range. A drone was flying above us and correcting the artillery fire.” He explained that their positions were in former Russian positions, hemmed in by minefields, and the Russian forces were able to keep them pinned down and under constant drone surveillance. (Amid the counterattack’s deadly slog, a glimmer of success for Ukraine, 30 July 2023)

For anyone with an internet connection and an inquisitive mind, such stories are hardly a closed book. But the fact that reportage of such candour about the war is now finding its way into the broad mainstream of the respectable bourgeois press speaks volumes about just how badly this imperialist proxy war is really going.

Ukrainian cannon fodder continues to fuel Nato’s proxy war
The Ukrainian people have been used as nothing but cannon fodder for the war against Russia. Whilst in public, fawning lip service is paid to the supposed bravery of the Ukrainian soldiers and the phoney nobility of their ostensible cause, the real attitude of the west to their hirelings is one of complete contempt, regarding them as just so many disposable grunts to be thrown into the front line and urged to fight to the last drop of their Ukrainian blood.

And truth to tell, it is all one to imperialism whether the blood spilt is Ukrainian or Polish or Georgian or Kurdish, just so long as its orders are obeyed and Uncle Sam can wash his hands of them when things get too hot.

Since 24 February 2022, it has been estimated that 11,675 foreign mercenaries from 84 countries have officially arrived in Ukraine to prop up the army, including over 2,600 Poles and 700 Brits. As of 30 June this year, 4,845 foreign mercenaries have been wiped out, including young men from the USA, Canada and the European Union. (Kiev looking for foreign mercenaries after up to 10,000 already killed or escaped, South Front, 10 July 2023)

Some 4,801 mercenaries have been reported to have gone Awol, fleeing the Ukrainian hell hole. Predictably, the contempt with which imperialism regards its own disposable Ukrainian proxies finds an echo in the open contempt the Kiev junta and its army display toward their foreign proxies.

Foreign fighters are used to swell the ranks when kamikaze assaults on Russian positions are attempted. In the bloody aftermath, frontline commanders do not bother to keep track of how many foreigners are killed, and any wounded mercenaries are left to bleed out on the ground until all the Ukrainians have been evacuated.

Unsurprisingly, as news from the front filters through, the Kiev junta is finding it harder to recruit from the usual sources and is obliged to scrape the bottom of the barrel, looking further afield to Iraq, Brazil and Argentina, whilst renewed efforts are underway to recruit more mercenaries from the USA and Canada.

Dumping Ukraine for Poland?
But with the war in Ukraine lost and Nato turning its back on Kiev at the recent Vilnius summit, there are signs that the USA may be preparing to demote the Zelensky gang from number one proxy in the region and keep a close watch on developments around Poland.

In a development that should remind the Kiev junta of the old adage that imperialism has no permanent friends, only permanent interests, relations between ‘allies’ Poland (a Nato member) and Ukraine (not in Nato), are becoming dangerously frayed.

When Ukraine complained about Poland barring Ukraine imports (to protect its own grain business), Warsaw snapped that Kiev should be grateful for all the Polish fighters it is sending over. This snub did not go down well in Kiev. And now questions are being asked as to what exactly the Polish military presence is actually doing on Ukrainian soil.

The official story is that a joint Ukrainian-Polish military unit is in formation in order to preserve the security of western Ukraine. But this is not how Russia is reading the situation – especially as Poland is now building up a formidable force along the Belarus border following a border incident.

On 9 August, Tass reported: “‘Poland is planning to form a joint Polish-Ukrainian military unit ostensibly for security, but with the ulterior motive of occupying western Ukraine,’ Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu said.

“He drew attention to the dangers associated with Poland’s militarisation. ‘There are plans to create a permanent so-called Polish-Ukrainian formation, ostensibly to ensure the security of western Ukraine, but in fact – for the subsequent occupation of this territory,’ he said.

“Shoigu added that Poland has become the main tool of America’s anti-Russian policy. ‘The existing risks are connected with the militarisation of Poland, which has become the main instrument of the anti-Russian policy of the United States. Warsaw has announced its intention to build, as the Poles claim, ‘the most powerful army on the continent’. In this connection, large-scale purchases of weapons from the USA, the UK and south Korea have commenced, including tanks, artillery systems, air defence and anti-aircraft systems and combat aircraft,’ the top defence official pointed out.” (Poland, Ukraine to form joint military unit, says Shoigu)

Now that the counteroffensive is universally understood to be a dead duck, all the ‘friends’ of Ukraine who egged it on to an impossible ‘victory’ are now contemptuously blaming the proxies for losing the war. If Shoigu is right and Poland is emerging as the main tool of America’s drive to war against Russia, what we may imminently be witnessing is not the weakening and balkanisation of Russia, but rather that of Ukraine.

https://thecommunists.org/2023/09/07/ne ... midstream/

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Ah, Not Again;))
As I repeat ad nauseam--nobody escapes Kornet.

Российские военные с одного выстрела из противотанкового ракетного комплекса «Корнет» подбили в Запорожской области второй британский танк Challenger 2, сообщил глава общественного движения «Мы – вместе с Россией» Владимир Рогов.
Translation: The Russian military with one shot from the Kornet anti-tank missile system knocked out the second British Challenger 2 tank in the Zaporozhye region, said the head of the public movement “We are together with Russia” Vladimir Rogov.

That is why Abrams M1 will not see the REAL combat for a long long time, probably not until nothing is left of VSU. The steady humiliation of NATO hardware continues. But before people begin to speculate about NATO "learning" about modern warfare, keep in mind crucial detail: what really matters in all that are REAL war correlates, or, speaking professionally, combat statistical data sets. Such as math. expectations for different types of munitions, probabilities of hits, destruction of targets, of receiving proper targeting, errors in systems, instrumental, human, external et al, in general--all this crucial data which spurs improvement of existing or, altogether, development of new weapon systems. And here is the catch, NATO doesn't have it.

Those war correlates are priceless, but even what VSU, traditionally lying, provides NATO IS NOT it and it does not provide this critical insight into the technological dimension of the SMO. Sure, NATO may know Russian Army's movements and see some patterns in, say, operation of radar field of Russian Air Defense, but the true treasure is what I described above. This treasure goes through combat logs of units and formations, gets filtered by tactical staffs and then gets into the planning and analytical structures of the General Staff and, eventually, to design bureaus in a form of technical requirements. NATO has no access to this and that is in the main driver behind NATO's (read US) falling behind Russia technologically. As per Challengers--they will have the fate of museum exhibits in Russia, because VSU cannot evacuate these 75-ton monsters from the battlefield. Uralvagonzavod sends greetings to British tank designers and suggests to them to study real warfare, not BS they study in UK degree mills.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/09 ... again.html

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Cuban Soldiers in the Russian Army?
SEPTEMBER 9, 2023

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Military maneuvers held by Belarus and Russia in September, 2021. Image: Anadolu Agency.

By Raúl Antonio Capote – Sep 7, 2023

The “news” that Cuban troops are participating in combat actions on the Russian side in Ukraine, that comes well seasoned with melodramatic stagings, is grabbing headlines in the main counterrevolutionary media and their affinities in the world.

There is nothing complex about this new farce. The main objectives as usual are aimed at undermining Cuba’s support and contributing to the barbaric campaign by the US government to discredit the island.

The Cuban Foreign Ministry’s (MINREX) statement issued a couple of days ago, sets out Havana’s position on the issue and clarifies some of the false matrices that the US special services, the media conglomerates and mercenaries in their service are trying to sow.

It was not for nothing that they sent their star operator, Orlando Gutiérrez Boronat, to Ukraine on a tour financed by the State Department. There is no one quite like him to act in front of the cameras and tell outlandish and fallacious stories, without the slightest embarrassment, against the land where he was born.

First of all, the Russian government, using its sovereign right, made public an appeal for foreign citizens who are in the territory of that country to join the Armed Forces for a period of one year, in exchange for which they could receive Russian citizenship.

Such a proposal is not an “invention” of Moscow, it is made by many governments in the world, including that of the US, which, by the way, does not always fulfill its commitment.

It is possible that some Cubans residing in Russia have chosen that possibility; after all the Cuban community in that country is not small.

Another variant is that, as denounced by the Cuban Foreign Ministry, groups of human traffickers are taking citizens of the island to the war front in Ukraine by means of deceitful proposals or frankly through an offer of payment for services.

The third “vision of the issue” is the farce staged by the operators of the anti-Cuban ultra-right, the Miami counterrevolutionary mafia and the CIA, which has invented that there are secret flights, even from the Varadero airport, to take Cuban troops to combat territory.

It is highly offensive and it is clear that they do it motivated by the hatred they feel for the Cuban Revolution and to deceive and denigrate, to claim that the island is sending soldiers in exchange for material benefits.

Those who know the trajectory of the revolutionary government know perfectly well how our nation acts in these matters; Cuban internationalist soldiers have fought in Africa against colonialism and apartheid, but the only thing that Cuba has taken back , with the victorious departure of its troops, are the glorious bones of those who have fallen in combat.

This smear campaign, like so many others, will end in the dustbin of history.

https://orinocotribune.com/cuban-soldie ... sian-army/

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Rabotino: Why are Russia and Ukraine Fighting so Fiercely Over a Tiny Village on the Southern Front?
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on SEPTEMBER 9, 2023
Vladislav Ugolny

Since mid-August, the tiny village of Rabotino – located in Zaporozhye Region between the Ukrainian-controlled city of Orekhov and Russian-controlled Tokmak – has been the site of fierce battles.

For Kiev, this rural locality has become a disappointing and unexpected yardstick for measuring its counteroffensive. At the end of August, Ukrainian media cited the Defense Ministry as reporting that it had established full control over the hamlet. During a visit to France, Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba talked about the “heroic capture” of this “strategically important settlement” and asserted that establishing control over its flanks would open the way for Ukrainian troops to reach “Melitopol and the border with Crimea.”

Kiev’s declaration of triumph, however, was premature – throughout this time, the Russian Defense Ministry denied reports of the loss of the settlement, where the battle continues. The ferocity of the fighting has forced both sides to transfer elite airborne units to Rabotino, such as the 82nd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and the 76th Division of the Russian Armed Forces.

The village is in a ‘gray zone,’ with Russian and Ukrainian forces positioned on its southern and northern outskirts, respectively.

The location of Rabotino

Rabotino is 12km (7.5 miles) from Orekhov, which acts as a base for Kiev’s forces. In the spring of 2022, the AFU managed to stabilize the front there and started accumulating forces for its counteroffensive, which began in June of this year.
RT
The city of Tokmak, which, in turn, is a base for the Russian army, is 22km (13.6 miles) from Rabotino. This seemingly short distance is complicated for an army to cover: two lines of defense, minefields, prepared artillery positions, and other means of protection separate Tokmak from the current site of battles. Moreover, Tokmak has been turned into a fortress capable of all-around security if the enemy breaks through other lines.

The significance of Rabotino

Rabotino is the first settlement in the direction of Ukraine’s planned offensive on Tokmak and precedes Russia’s first line of defense. Theoretically, if the Ukrainian army had acted more successfully, it could have quickly captured Rabotino, and Russian troops would have focused on protecting the first line of defense.

However, the Ukrainian counteroffensive got stuck in this area, and the AFU even tried to shift its main effort in the direction of the Vremevsky sector (the junction of Zaporozhye Region and the Donetsk People’s Republic). Rabotino became the site of prolonged battles where both sides suffered casualties, and Kiev lost a lot of Western equipment. As a result, the village – home to just 480 people when the last census was held in 2001 – received significant media coverage. People following the war in Ukraine now know about the existence of Rabotino.

Ukrainian losses

According to a statement by Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu on September 5, Ukraine has lost an estimated 66,000 soldiers since the start of the counteroffensive. In just one day, 170 were reportedly killed near Rabotino. Casualties are mounting by the day. According to a report from Moscow on September 7, within just 24 hours, the Russian army repulsed 14 breakthrough attempts by the AFU in Rabotino, as a result of which Kiev lost 110 fighters.

While the loss of personnel and the ratio of wounded to deceased casualties cannot be visually confirmed, destroyed equipment is much easier to count. In Rabotino, the AFU used new equipment received from NATO countries (except for US M1 Abrams tanks that have not yet been delivered) and have lost a great deal of it.

According to the Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) community Lostarmour, the AFU has already lost nine German Leopard 2 tanks, 38 US M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and four Stryker armored fighting vehicles. The latest in this list was a UK-made Challenger 2 – one of the world’s most modern tanks. It has been in service with the British Army since 1994 and has earned a reputation as an “invincible” tank. Until now, none had been lost in combat due to enemy fire – the only destroyed Challenger 2 tank was hit by “friendly fire” in Iraq in 2003. According to the Telegram channel ‘Russian Spring War Correspondents’, the supposedly indestructible British tank was directly hit by a Russian Kornet anti-tank guided missile, which exploded under its gun turret.

The above figures are based on visual confirmation and do not take into account the armored vehicles destroyed by aviation. Therefore, this data should be considered a ‘reliable minimum.’

Race for reinforcements

As the fighting in Rabotino has dragged on, both sides have needed to transfer reserves and pull them into battle urgently. The Ukrainians, who started with several brigades, gradually introduced the 116th, 117th, and 118th mechanized brigades and then, in mid-August, played their trump card: the 82nd Air Assault Brigade. Initially, this group was supposed to go into battle only after breaking through Russia’s first line of defense.

In reality, things didn’t go as planned, and paratroopers from the 82nd stormed Rabotino. The presence of this “elite” (as the media called it) outfit on the battlefield allowed Russian troops to destroy more expensive Western equipment.

As for Russia, it transferred the seventh and 76th Air Assault Division to Rabotino to relieve the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division that fought there earlier. These units are currently the backbone of its defense.

Who controls Rabotino now?

For the most part, Rabotino is in the ‘gray zone.’ Ukrainian troops are positioned on the northern and northeastern outskirts of the settlement. At the same time, the Russians are keeping their main forces west and south of the village, maintaining control over the southern outskirts.
RT
Occasionally, both sides are trying to push the enemy out of the village. The AFU intends to fully capture the settlement and use it as a springboard for an offensive in the southern direction. Russian troops sometimes conduct clearing operations in the central part of Rabotino to prevent the Ukrainians from settling there and then withdraw to their high-ground positions.

Rabotino – a new meat grinder?

The fact that Kiev continues to fight for Rabotino is highly convenient for Moscow’s forces. Thanks to the heavy concentration of Ukrainians there, the Russian operational command does not expect the enemy to make unpredictable decisions and will probably focus on defending this area.

At the same time, even if the Ukrainians managed to take control of the settlement, this would not change the situation at the front since the village isn’t as “strategically important” as Kiev officials say it is.

Rabotino and the fields to the east of it, where the Ukrainians were able to advance to the outskirts of the Russian primary defenses and reach the first line of defense in the area of Verbovoye, are located in tactically inconvenient lowlands. By controlling the high ground, where the first line has been constructed, the Russians can easily oversee the territory – occasionally allowing the AFU to progress deeper, stretching their supply and evacuation routes – and then launch a counterattack.

In general, when it comes to the battle for Rabotino, control over this tiny settlement is less important than the balance of the losses between the two parties; the issue of introducing and transferring reserves; and the remaining offensive potential of the Ukrainian army.



https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/09/ ... ern-front/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Mon Sep 11, 2023 12:15 pm

War and political legitimacy
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 09/11/2023

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Legitamacy is a key aspect in any regime, but it becomes even more important in times of crisis. War is one of those moments in which doubts about legitimacy, understood as the people's acceptance of certain authorities, or the lack thereof, can determine the political future, not only of a leader, but of the entire regime. This idea has been present in the Ukrainian conflict since February 2014, when the dignity revolutionIt was perceived as a coup d'état by an important part of the country, which saw, in addition to external interference, a nationalist agenda that has only been confirmed over the years. The non-recognition of the Government born from Maidan, the incendiary nationalist statements and the null capacity of Yatseniuk's executive, which in the face of the Crimean protests and the imminent celebration of the Crimean referendum did not know how to offer dialogue or an accommodation in the new Ukraine, but instead chose to withdraw the autonomy of the peninsula, facilitated the protests and the subsequent accession of Crimea to Russia. In Donbass, any shade of legitimacy that could have been given to the Turchinov-Yatseniuk Government was lost the moment Kiev opted for a military solution, the anti-terrorist operation., to a political problem, the protests in Donetsk and Lugansk against the path that Ukraine was taking.

In peacetime, legitimacy is theoretically obtained through electoral processes, although this is not always sufficient. Viktor Yanukovych had been elected at the polls and his final reminder that it is possible to construct a discourse that turns the overthrow of an elected president into a revolution and not a coup d'état, especially when Western diplomats walk the streets of the capital and meet publicly and secretly to organize the transitional government. Nor is there any doubt about the legitimacy of a president if he is elected in an electoral process in which an entire region cannot participate because it is at war. Current Ukrainian legislation prevents the holding of elections under conditions of martial law, which is why Volodymyr Zelensky had assumed that there would be no legislative elections until further notice and it was even assumed that the presidential elections that should be held in 2024 would be irremediably delayed.


In 2014, the anti-terrorist operationHe was the figure chosen to give legitimacy to a military intervention within the limits of the country. The use of armed forces against the population of a region of the country, collectively designated as terrorist, was thus justified. This avoided having to decree martial law, which would have prevented the holding of the elections that would bring Petro Poroshenko, one of the shadow men of Maidan, to the presidency. The interim Ukrainian authorities, questioned by large sectors of the Russian-speaking southeast, with Crimea lost and with Donbass ready to take up arms against the Ukrainian army, in which there were also sectors that were not willing to shoot at the population, urgently needed legitimation , a process that could only be carried out through elections.

The victory of February 2014 in Kiev, the electoral processes, in which the entire country did not participate and with increasing difficulties for parties opposed to Maidan and the discourse of struggle against Russia were until February 2022 the basis of the legitimacy of the governments Ukrainians, supported financially, economically and politically by the countries of the European Union and the United States. This support was unconditional and essential in the case of denying any type of recognition to the movement that had been created in Donbass against the anti-terrorist operation , the improvised authorities organized in the summer of 2014 and any process linked to them.

Once the war started, the legitimacy of the Donbass authorities was always linked to the ability to face the challenges posed by the confrontation with Ukraine. With the start of the operationanti-terrorist, kyiv lost any legitimacy it may have maintained in the eyes of the population of Donbass, whose opinion, since February 2014, was absolutely irrelevant to the country's central authorities. The clearest graphic representation is the referendum on May 11 of that year, when, as a protest vote, thousands of people gathered in the cities to vote against the new Kiev Government and in defense of Donbass. At that time, when the Western media described the DPR as “a republic of a building”, the survival of the People's Republics was not only not guaranteed, but seemed impossible. The steps taken by Ukraine, not only through war but fundamentally by adding economic means to try to break the will of Donbass, They increased polarization and forced the population to take a stand. War makes all equidistance impossible.

Since 2014, Ukraine has denounced every political and economic act outside its will, sending notes of protest for every convoy of Russian humanitarian aid sent to Donbass, as well as for every electoral process that has been held there. Alexander Zakharchenko's legitimacy was not based on the November 2014 elections, but on his ability to be the visible head of a Republic that maintained an increasingly organized army and that, with the assistance of Russia, began to offer some minimal services with those to compensate for the abandonment of functions of the State of Ukraine since that summer, when the payment of public salaries, pensions and social benefits was interrupted. The 2014 elections, which confirmed Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky and were held five years later, that confirmed Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik in the positions they already occupied were the officialization of the system, the formalization of structures in which the most important thing was that the candidates had the support of Russia. Regardless of what the population's intentions were at the beginning of the protests, at the time when the state of war and economic blockade became chronic with the Ukrainian sabotage of the Minsk process, the legitimacy of any authority in Donbass depended on its relationship with Russia and its ability to assert that closeness. The situation made this comparison inevitable.

In this context, Ukraine's position has always been that of condemnation and blockade. Ukraine not only protested every electoral process, but even appealed to the letter of Minsk, an agreement it never intended to fulfill, to condemn the attempt to hold primaries to, in the future, hold local elections. Those elections, possibly to avoid further irritating Ukraine, never took place, nor did the local elections to which kyiv had committed. There was never a specific electoral law agreed with Donetsk and Lugansk to hold local elections, the starting point for the return of Donbass to Ukraine. As with the peace process in general - and as is happening now - kyiv opted for the strategy of rejecting any step and any agreement if its demands were not exactly met, commands and desires. In this way, the blockade was the only possible consequence. With this stance, kyiv further delegitimized itself, if that was possible, before the population of Donbass.

Ukraine now denounces the holding of legislative elections in Donbass and other territories under Russian control in Ukraine as unacceptable interference, an act consistent with its position, but which shows a certain nervousness. The holding of elections in a territory, although in conditions that make democratic normality impossible and in which not the entire population can have the option of participating, is an example of effective control of the territory and at the same time a form of legitimization and officialization of the status quo, the real reason for kyiv's condemnation. Ukraine also condemned the participation of the population of Donbass who had acquired Russian nationality in previous Russian electoral processes. In that case, as in the current one, the real reason was that this participation, and the few campaign events that took place in Donbass, showed that the issue had become part of national and not international politics. It is not the Russian interference that bothers Kiev, since that justifies continuing with its strategy of denying concessions and continuing with the war as the only way to resolve the conflict, but the image of participation of Ukrainian citizens in processes of legitimization of the Russian presence.

The electoral issue has appeared on the Ukrainian political agenda over the last week, although not only because of the condemnations of the Russian legislative elections. Zelensky had already opened the door to the possibility of modifying the legislation to hold parliamentary elections in Ukraine, of course, in case the West covered the costs and security needs. Now, the Ukrainian president has gone a step further and has mentioned the possibility of holding presidential elections when his term ends. Without any political figure that could overshadow the current president, his re-election would be more than guaranteed and no party opposing the official Maidan regime could participate, all of them prohibited, just like the entire already limited political spectrum of the left. But unlike in the case of Donbass, where the leaders sought the legitimization of the population, fundamentally to represent them before Russia and in the Minsk process, Zelensky's need is not due to his population, but to his partners. It is not the Ukrainian population that threatens to look for a new leader, but it is the Western press that publishes articles in which it subtly suggests that Zelensky is not essential. Hence arises Zelensky's need to maintain the formal legitimacy that a mandate ratified by the polls would give him.

The reality of the country, with a part of the territory that it considers its own under Russian control, millions of people refugees in the east and west, deeply compromised security conditions and a large part of the political spectrum suspended from political activities do not meet relative guarantees for the holding of minimally serious elections. But those elections will be held in any case if Zelensky sees his legitimacy in the eyes of his partners in danger. Of course, the Ukrainian president has already raised the first problems, linked, as expected, to the participation of the population or, at least, a part of the population that he considers his own. “The most important thing is what to do with the temporarily occupied territories,” Zelensky said. The participation of this population in Ukrainian elections would not only be a legitimization of Ukraine but also a sign of delegitimization of Russia, the main reason why the participation of this population is important. Of course, the Ukrainian president left an important nuance. “There are those who have been under occupation since February 24. They are also Ukrainians,” he stated, making it clear what part of the population considers Ukrainian and wants it to be able to participate in the elections. This statement leaves out the definition of making it clear what part of the population considers Ukrainian and wants it to be able to participate in the elections. Crimea and Donbass, who would in no way vote en masse for Zelensky and who do not even offer to participate in the Ukrainian elections, but who are actively condemned if they wish to participate in the Russian elections. With this brief comment, Zelensky has made clear his opinion on Donbass and Crimea, whose population for political purposes has ceased to be considered Ukrainian for his president, but whose territories must be liberated because they are Ukrainian land .

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/09/11/la-gu ... more-28112

Google Translator

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Chronicle of a special military operation for September 10, 2023
September 10, 2023
Rybar

Ukrainian formations made another attempt to land on Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea , but the boat landing was destroyed by naval aviation of the Russian Armed Forces. After this, the enemy tried to strike the UAV, but was unsuccessful.

In the Soledar direction, intense fighting continues south of Bakhmut : Ukrainian Armed Forces units are trying to advance under massive artillery fire and kamikaze UAVs.

In the Vremevsky sector, the enemy’s onslaught at the Novodonetskoye-Novomayorskoye line does not weaken. The Ukrainian command is driving infantry into “meat assaults” under heavy artillery fire. Often, attackers suffer losses before they even have time to engage in battle.

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Another thwarted Ukrainian Armed Forces attack on Crimea

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Yesterday, at around 21.00, at least six boats with personnel from the main intelligence department and special operations forces of Ukraine set out from Zatoka in the direction of Crimea , who again wanted to land on Cape Tarkhankut .

But their plans were not destined to come true : a Su-24M naval aviation bomber was immediately sent in their direction, which dropped four RBK-500PTAB-1M cluster bombs with anti-tank cumulative elements on a cluster of boats southeast of Zatoka.

As a result, three enemy watercraft immediately sank to the bottom along with the landing force, and the rest turned around and departed in the direction of Vilkovo , where they returned by midnight, bypassing Zmeiny Island .

And from 3 am on September 10, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to attack military targets on Tarkhankut with attack drones, but the attack was repelled. Units of the 31st Air Force and Air Defense Division shot down eight drones: two were destroyed by Pantsir, four by rifle squads, and two more were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Probably, the enemy intended to combine an attack on Tarkhankut with a UAV raid - the boats would have just approached the shores of Crimea by the time the drones arrived, which would have had a better effect. But Russian troops once again successfully repelled the attack.

Moreover, the sortie was supposed to take place on Friday, September 8th. Then the DRGs were sent to Zmeinoye on boats, from where they were supposed to head to the Crimea. However, Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft struck with several FABs, hitting a cluster of power steering and special forces and foiling the enemy’s plans.

The situation on the front line and combat operations

In the Starobelsky direction the situation has not undergone significant changes. The Russian Armed Forces continue to push the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction of Kupyansk , artillery duels are taking place along the entire front line, and DRGs are operating.

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In the Soledar direction, intense fighting continues on the southern flank of the defense of Bakhmut : massive artillery fire is being fired at the assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Along the entire line of contact, Russian units are actively using various types of drones, attacking members of Ukrainian formations in the front-line zone.

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In the Vremevsky sector, the enemy continues the onslaught at the Novodonetskoye - Novomayorskoye line , launching three attacks during the night alone. The tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are the same: enemy armored vehicles deliver infantry to forest belts, after which assault groups try to enter the positions of the Russian Armed Forces. However, these forays ended in nothing for the Ukrainian formations: Russian troops constantly watched the front line and inflicted fire damage, forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat.

At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces worked on targets near the front line, inflicting manpower losses and suppressing the mortar crew. Soldiers of the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division destroyed an electronic warfare station south of Rovnopol , and a salvo of heavy flamethrower systems destroyed an Ukrainian Armed Forces stronghold near Priyutnoye , which contained at least 13 members of Ukrainian forces.


Information also appeared about the withdrawal of units 23 and 31 from the front line, which, after summer battles and significant losses, went to restore combat capability in Mezhevaya and Georgievka in the Dnepropetrovsk region . At the same time, the enemy does not intend to abandon a further offensive in the Vremyevsky sector - at the moment we are only talking about changing the direction of the attack from Staromlynovka to Novomayorskoye . For these purposes, in Prechistovka , Ukrainian formations made up for the losses in the assault groups of the 35th Infantry Infantry.

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In the Orekhovsky sector, the enemy rotated landings south of Rabotino , after which he again tried to attack the defensive lines of the Russian Armed Forces. To date, all attacks have been successfully stopped by concentrated artillery and small arms fire.

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In the Kherson direction, Russian troops are striking enemy concentrations on islands in the Dnieper delta and the opposite bank. Ukrainian Armed Forces facilities in the vicinity of Berislav , Antonovka and Arkhangelsk were hit .

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas

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The Ukrainian drone was suppressed by electronic warfare means after being detected near the village of Somovo , Oryol region . According to the press service of the regional government, there were no casualties or destruction.

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Ukrainian formations attempted to attack the Druzhba oil pipeline facility in the Bryansk region . According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, an air defense crew on duty destroyed a UAV in the air at about 8.30 am in the Novozybkovsky district .

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not stop striking settlements in the Belgorod region . The governor of the region reported that air defense systems in the Belgorod region were activated ; casualties and destruction were avoided. In addition, shelling of Belyanka and Dronovka , as well as Bezymeno , was reported, but there have been no official comments yet.

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue their strikes from cannon and rocket artillery against populated areas of the Donetsk People's Republic . The central areas of Donetsk were under massive fire : residential buildings and civilian infrastructure, including a kindergarten and the Mayak book market, were damaged. Fires broke out at some of the landing sites. At the moment, there has been no information about the presence of casualties. Operational and emergency services personnel continue to work in incident areas. In addition, the enemy shelled Gorlovka , Shirokaya Balka , Panteleimonovka , Yasinovataya and Makeevka— in the latter, a local resident received shrapnel wounds and is receiving all the necessary medical care.

In the Zaporozhye region, the village of Bolshaya Znamenka came under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces : residential buildings and a local school were damaged. By luck there were no casualties or casualties.

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Ukrainian formations continue to shell settlements on the left bank of the Kherson region, releasing more than 100 units of ammunition daily. Last night, Krynki , Peschanivka , Golaya Pristan , Podstepnoye and Cossack Camps were under fire . And in Novaya Kakhovka, a vegetable storage facility and the city road maintenance service were damaged.

In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported on the neutralization of enemy UAVs in the areas of Novaya Mayachka and Bolshaya Lepetikha by air defense and electronic warfare means .

Political events
Statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the UN grain initiative

The content of the UN Secretary General's letter on the grain deal gives the impression that they are trying to use it to promote unilateral approaches. The West is trying to persuade the Russian Federation to agree to an unrealistic scheme to reconnect Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT through a branch in Luxembourg . Russia appreciates the efforts of Antonio Guterres on the grain issue, but they are doomed if the West only makes promises to take steps towards Moscow.

Statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the G20 summit

Thanks to the countries of the global South, it was possible to prevent the implementation of Western attempts to Ukrainize the G20 agenda. Among the developing members of the G20 there is a correct understanding of what is happening in Ukraine . In the G20 declaration, stopping attacks against energy facilities includes terrorist attacks against Nord Streams and attacks on Zaporizhia NPP.

About who makes money from arms supplies to Ukraine

The owner of Global Ordnance, Mark Morales, received contracts worth about a billion dollars from the Pentagon to supply ammunition in the interests of Ukraine.

According to The New York Times, Morales works closely with Ukrainian civilian and military officials, while violating the laws of both the United States and Ukraine. In the weeks leading up to February 24, the Pentagon awarded his company a five-year contract worth up to $750 million, with hundreds of millions more to follow.

On the production of weapons on the territory of Ukraine

BAE Systems, which plans to open an office in Ukraine, plans to produce spare parts for artillery in a few months. The plans include the production of the guns themselves, probably 105 mm L119 howitzers.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

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Advancing on Foot from Ukraine Through Russian Minefields to Please Western Financial Institutions
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on SEPTEMBER 9, 2023
Dmitri Kovalevich

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Forcibly conscripted Ukrainian soldiers are being ordered to advance on foot while under heavy fire through minefields in order to somehow, miraculously, achieve repayment by Russia to Western banks of the loans that the Ukrainian government has taken out. Much of these loans has been embezzled, first through the mechanism of a violent coup in 2014, now through a reckless and entirely unwinnable war.

Throughout August 2023, the Ukrainian army unsuccessfully tried to advance against Russian forces holding the territories east and south of the Dnieper River. Its soldiers literally crashed into the heavily fortified defensive lines of the Russian armed forces, with predictable and tragic consequences. The tactics of the Ukrainian army’s ‘counteroffensive’ have been determined by NATO instructors and have caused heavy casualties among Ukraine’s foot soldiers. They have been instructed to attack Russia’s main defense lines head-on, advancing on foot through minefields and lacking air cover.

Western countries now advise the Ukrainian armed forces to save expensive armored vehicles and ammunition and send their soldiers to advance on foot using light weapons. As a result, the battlefields have turned into huge cemeteries, from which it is difficult or impossible even to evacuate bodies. A comment on the ‘Legitimny’ channel on Telegram states: “The Presidential Administration has switched to a strategy of saving equipment and clearing minefields with the feet of infantry. This tactic increases personnel losses and inflames the situation within the army, as soldiers do not particularly want to be sent to the slaughter,”

The Russian side sees and understands the tactics the Armed Forces of Ukraine are using. Donetsk soldier-volunteer Olena Bobkova describes to Ukraina.ru the Ukrainian tactics: “The Ukrainian tactics are as follows: the infantry load up in armored personnel carriers – either Ukrainian, Turkish, French or American vehicles, such as the M-113 armored personnel carrier – and drive up to our positions. By the way, these vehicles also include old, decommissioned British Saxon APCs from the 1960s. Our artillery and aviation start hitting the APCs as they approach – both in the forward landing zones and on the roads used to get there. If they are not hit, they drive close to us, then the infantry is unloaded and the armored personnel carrier leaves the area.”

Western instructors are advising the Ukrainian armed forces to target all three of Russia’s lines of defense, with the goal of reaching the shores of the Sea of Azov. If successful, this would cut the land connection between Russian Crimea and the mainland regions of the west of the Russian Federation.

Meanwhile, Russian troops are advancing, but in a different area, some 300km to 400 km north in the Kharkiv region. At the end of August, the Ukrainian authorities announced a mandatory evacuation from areas of the Kharkiv region.

Conscription and soldier morale

Most of the Ukrainian soldiers engaged in the ‘counteroffensive’ have been forcibly conscripted. In August, many of them opted to surrender as prisoners of war rather than face death or injury in following orders. Some Ukrainian POWs have reported that they found themselves in the front lines after venturing out in their hometown or city on errands or to shop. Their training is minimal; effectively nothing, for all intents and purposes. Such is how Ukraine recruits to its army 18 months after Russia intervened militarily to put an end to the long war by Ukraine targeting the civilians of Donbass and Lugansk [two regions, together known as ‘Donbass’ that formally joined the Russian Federation in early 2022].

The Russian army is also conducting active propaganda directed at the soldiers of the AFU, urging them in video broadcasts to surrender and save their lives. The videos emphasize that Ukraine’s high command which is sending so many of its soldiers to the slaughter cares more about saving and protecting the Leopard tanks being supplied by Germany than saving the lives of its troops.

Captured AFU soldiers say that the Russian artillery works so intensively that they sometimes spend days lying on the ground to avoid injury or death. “To be honest, we can’t even build shelters for ourselves. Your [Russian] artillery won’t let us. The ‘bird’ [military drone] is in the sky all the time. I once laid there for three days; lots of shells are flying around the clock,” recalls one.

Apti Alaudinov, commander of the ‘Akhmat’ special forces from Chechnya and a Russian major general, says that the number of voluntary surrenders by Ukrainian soldiers has risen sharply recently. “We are taking POWs much more often compared to the beginning of the Special Military Operation. And they are surrendering much more quickly. It shows that they are very tired. They realize that they can’t see any way to victory in this war.

“Today, the AFU fighters are being driven to the front line by bayonets in their backs. We know this from various sources. We also know that in most units of the AFU, there are only some 25-30% of personnel remaining. The enemy is dying on a large scale. This overall picture is what leads more and more enemy fighters to surrender to us,” Alaudinov writes.

In another message, the Chechen special forces commander writes that he sees his task as maximum destruction of the enemy’s military forces in order to prepare for further Russian offensive moves. “At the moment, our task is to maximally ‘erode’ and destroy the enemy’s equipment and manpower. And then there will be results of a different kind: our counteroffensive.”

Western military doctrine fixed and outmoded

According to reports by Russian military correspondents, at the end of August near the village of Rabotino [Rabotyne], approximately 50 km east of the Dnieper River and 100 km southeast of the city of Zaporozhye, some 35,000-40,000 Ukrainian soldiers were gathered in a narrow space near the village and were trapped in a low-lying area and being methodically destroyed.

The advice of Western instructors is already causing ridicule among the Ukrainian military and media. German instructors are advising the Ukrainians, often advancing by foot or in civilian vehicles, to bypass Russian minefields, even though these fields are tens of kilometers wide.

German military use training maps where some minefields may be shown to occupy only some 100-200 meters of depth. On other maps, minefields are simply not shown. American instructors advise relying less on drones for reconnaissance (many of which are being successfully jammed by the Russian electronic warfare system) and instead use ground reconnaissance; that is, to literally try and pass through the minefields on foot. The Washington Post published a commentary by a leading columnist on August 27 stating, “Pentagon officials have also urged Ukraine to rely less on drones for battlefield awareness and more on ground reconnaissance forces, which can assess Russian positions better.”

The Ukrainian publication Klymenko-Time writes on Telegram that Western military doctrine is degraded by the fact that the U.S. and NATO countries have not fought a strong opponent since the Korean War. “The last time the Americans fought a roughly equal opponent was in the Korean War, and in the end, they were unable to win. So exactly where the U.S. Army has applied its ‘military doctrine’ in the last 70 years is not entirely clear.

“For three generations in a row,” it continues, “the Americans have been fighting according to only one doctrine – entering war against a small country while having multiple technical, aviation, and numerical superiority. The American recommendations are late, incompetent, and far from adequate.”

Ukraine has once again stepped up conscription to make up for losses in August. Volodymyr Zelensky is following the leadership of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which is reportedly asking Zelensky and his government to mobilize even more military recruits. More than one million have already been mobilized.

In August, Ukrainian courts handed down many sentences of two to three years in prison for those refusing conscription, with a possibility of parole if they agree to go to the front. The exact numbers of those being convicted are not known, but media across Ukraine report daily court proceedings against people refusing conscription. Decades ago, the world called such people in the United States ‘draft dodgers’ for refusing to take part in the U.S. war against the people of Vietnam.

Surprising local court decision in Ukraine questioning the legality of military conscription

Late in August, a Ukrainian court set a dangerous precedent for the Ukrainian government in a ruling that challenged the very legality of conscription and martial law in the country. On August 23, the Zinkivskyi district court in the Poltava region issued a highly unusual verdict against a draft dodger, equating Ukraine’s conscription law to a form of slavery.

It is known from the background of the case that an unemployed man from the village of Kirovo in the Donetsk region was charged under Article 336 of the Criminal Code (evasion of conscription). The judge, after considering the case, found the man not guilty. The judge ruled that the presidential decrees on conscription were not drawn up in accordance with the law, and military enlistment offices therefore have no right to force a person to perform military service. The entire decision of the court was 35 pages long. Here are just a few excerpts (from the official registry of the court’s verdict):

“Human rights enshrine and concretize the ability to act within the limits established by one’s legal status. Thus, human beings are free from birth; no one has the right to violate their natural rights.”
“Employees of military enlistment offices and officials have no authority to recruit staff to the AFU except in accordance with labor laws, under a labor contract, which must be a voluntary decision of such an employee. Forcing a labor contract is a form of slavery.”
“The so-called ‘laws’ and ‘presidential decrees’, including those bearing on military conscription, the introduction of martial law, and the other actions governing the actions of the AFU which are being legitimized under the guise of laws are works of authorship and have no constitutional basis. In essence, they are not laws and are not binding on the people.”
In other words, the judge in Kirovo recognized Zelensky’s orders and drafts as equivalent to the ordinary writings of an author or otherwise outspoken, ordinary citizen.

The political consequences of such a court decision are difficult to predict, but they call into question not only the legitimacy of the actions of the Ukrainian authorities but also the legitimacy of the support to it by Western countries. Since the 2014 coup in Ukraine, such rebellious, judges have become targets of terror by Ukraine’s special services or by neo-Nazi paramilitaries, as happened during and after the violent ‘Euromaidan’ protests of late-2013, early 2014.

Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Dubynskyy claims that with its decision, the Ukrainian court effectively recognized as illegitimate all laws, cabinet decisions, and presidential decrees from 1994 to 2022.

The violation of Ukraine’s own laws and constitution in this case is explained by Ukraine’s dependence on the agenda of the U.S. and other Western countries. In late August, Kiev political analyst Kost Bondarenko wrote on Telegram that if Zelensky were to try and counter or contradict the U.S. position in Ukraine, he would simply be liquidated. According to Bondarenko, Ukraine today is a “third world” country, where leaders can be changed, just like as in African or Latin American states which, similarly to Ukraine, do not have actual sovereignty.

“Zelensky is not independent in his decisions. Even if tomorrow Zelensky thought it was necessary to make a decision for some kind of ceasefire, two phone calls from Britain and the United States would change his mind. If not, the next day there would simply be a different president in office,” the Kiev political analyst said.

Ukraine’s indebtedness to Western finance

This dependency is a consequence of the endless loans that the Ukrainian government began to massively accumulate after the 2014 coup. In August 2023, the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance reported a record increase in the national debt in July 2023. It grew by $4 billion in that month, reaching $132.92 billion in total. Ukraine’s national debt now equals the country’s GDP, and the limit has not been reached. Kiev continues to accumulate new loans.

According to IMF estimates in June 2023, Ukraine’s public debt will amount to nearly 125% of GDP in 2024. By 2025, it will be 139% of GDP, and by 2026 it will reach 150%. The corresponding figure for the United States is 99%, for Germany is 47% for neighbouring Poland is 41%.

In addition to the external liabilities of Ukraine as a state, there are also the external debts of state-owned companies. The largest borrowers are Naftogaz (natural gas transmission), Ukravtodor (road and highway maintenance), Ukrenergo (electricity transmission), and Ukrzaliznytsya (rail transport and infrastructure). These companies and other large ones in Ukraine are all operated with the assistance if not direction of Western supervisors.

Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch writes that the problem of public debt will become a heavy burden for Ukraine after the end of hostilities. “In any case, the factor of public debt will be one of the factors to make impossible any rapid growth after the war. And for recovery of GDP, we are obliged to pay creditors bonuses for growth under the GDP guarantees,” the economist writes. (Reuters explains in this brief report how Ukraine’s GDP guarantees to Western financial institutions will work.)

Kushch says that that Kiev must raise the issue of debt relief and obtain relief now. Once hostilities end, Ukraine will fall out of the world’s media spotlight and ideas voiced today of relieving or writing off the country’s debts will fall away.

Pro-Western politicians in Ukraine are afraid to even discusses the issue of debt relief because this may cause Western creditors to become even more wary or downright opposed to such ideas than they are today. They propose, instead, to focus on an absurd scenario for recovering debts, namely, defeat Russia militarily and then force it to pay war reparations. Such reparations would go to Western financial institutions (primarily the IMF) in order to cover Ukraine’s debts accumulated by the governments of post-Soviet Ukraine.

Forcibly conscripted Ukrainian soldiers are being ordered to advance on foot while under heavy fire through minefields in order to somehow, miraculously, achieve repayment by Russia to Western banks of the loans that the Ukrainian government has taken out. Much of these loans has been embezzled, first through the mechanism of a violent coup in 2014, now through a reckless and entirely unwinnable war.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/09/ ... titutions/

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About Ukrainian Armed Forces artillery losses
September 10, 22:44

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About Ukrainian Armed Forces artillery losses

​​ ( https://telegra.ph/file/9acd7fcd7d87c8c34b81b.jpg)A sign with Ukrainian Armed Forces artillery losses for 2023 is being distributed across the Internet. Since it was compiled on the basis of extremely inaccurate data, we consider it necessary to make a number of clarifications.

1. According to the Military Balance, as of the beginning of 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had more than 1,994 units of cannon artillery, mortars and rocket artillery in combat units. Of these, barrel artillery and mortars - 1,544 units.

An unknown number of artillery systems were in the NSU, coastal defense, marines and air assault units.

It is also unknown the exact number of systems in storage. Military Balance gives only the number of 2S7 “Peony”, 83 units.

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2. According to the schedule, in 2023 alone, 1,863 Soviet-type artillery systems and 494 systems of foreign origin were destroyed. A total of 2,357 units.

That is, in 2023, more field artillery and Soviet-type mortars were allegedly destroyed than the Ukrainian Armed Forces had before the war.

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3. Foreign 155mm caliber artillery was promised 544 units. But promising does not mean delivering; in fact, delivery of approximately 250-260 units has been confirmed.

Artillery and mortars of other calibers were promised 240 units, 117 were delivered.

A total of 784 units were promised, 367-377 units were delivered.

Thus, more foreign artillery was allegedly destroyed in 2023 alone than was sent during the entire conflict.

* * *

4. It can be assumed that, starting in 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were gradually removed from storage and Soviet-type systems were transferred to the troops. To some extent, this assumption is true.

However, at the same time in Ukraine there was a destruction of the capabilities of the military-industrial complex and the destruction of combat systems.

Since the whole process was spread out over a year and a half, it turns out that if it was possible to exceed the number of 2 thousand systems in service, it was for a short moment, when revenues covered the decline. But, mainly, the purpose of commissioning systems from storage was to compensate for wear and combat losses. Most likely, by the beginning of 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not have 1,863 Soviet-type artillery systems and mortars in service.

This hypothesis is confirmed ( https://t.me/panzwaffle/2245) and Cancian, who in January 2023 noted a shortage of 122-152 mm ammunition and a decrease in the value of Soviet-type artillery.

What conclusions can be drawn from all this?

Any numbers should be treated with a certain degree of caution and attentiveness.

For example, MO statistics - on the basis of which the graph was drawn up - provide generalized data in an extremely inconvenient form. For example, it combines tanks with other armored fighting vehicles, and writes “field artillery pieces and mortars” into artillery.

In other words, the final figure could include anything that is not an MLRS, from a 60mm mortar to a 203mm Pion. Apparently all guntrucks, self-propelled mortars, as well as large-caliber anti-aircraft artillery, such as Bofors or S-60, go there. Maybe even pickup trucks with chargers are included, since the Ministry of Defense takes into account only anti-aircraft missile systems separately, but not cannon ones.

Separately, let us note that the mere inclusion of any enemy artillery system in this report can mean anything: from the barrel being scratched and the knurling being pierced (and so on several times) to “exploded and smashed.” But in general, the number of irrecoverable losses should be cautiously assumed to be a multiple of less than the number declared.

Делать какие-то выводы на основании таких нечетких данных… мы бы не стали, по крайней мере без перепроверки точно.

https://t.me/panzwaffle/2292 - цинк

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8624985.html

Unloading in Bremerhaven
September 11, 12:09

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Unloading in Bremerhaven

Unloading American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and MRAPs in Bremerhaven in Germany. The most likely destination is Ukraine, where huge losses in armored vehicles must be compensated. Previously, the United States promised to supply another 190 MRAPs to Ukraine, and even earlier they promised a certain number of Bradleys and Strykers to replace those destroyed (20-30 each)

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Photos from here https://t.me/rybar/51764

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8625891.html

Google Translator

*****

Has the West Closed All Its Project Ukraine Exits?
Posted on September 11, 2023 by Yves Smith

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Many analysts and commentators have been speculating about how the US and NATO will find their way to an endgame in the Ukraine conflict. Some focus, for humanitarian or pragmatic reasons, on a negotiated settlement between the US and Russia. Even though as a matter of form Ukraine would be party to such a deal, with Ukraine now fully dependent on Western arms and funding, there’s no pretending who is really driving this train.

We described earlier how the various factions in the US/NATO side would spend huge amounts of time arguing among themselves to come up with ideas for how exit the conflict that they’d developed in a vacuum, with no substantive exchange with Russia and not even any real consideration of repeated statements by Russian officials, including draft treaties presented in December 2021 and in the aborted peace talks in Marcy 2022.


The new peace chatter seems to amount to:

Ceasefire > *Magic* > Russia goes away with its tail enough between its legs that we and Ukraine can declare victory

At first we thought this dynamic was the result of splits among various key parties. After all, multiparty negotiations are messy.

But upon further reflection, it may be that the West has effectively set boundary conditions for itself that make ending the war impossible….absent changes in leaders of key governments that result in a willingness to relax boundary condition and/or such a visible collapse of Ukraine’s military that the West has to rethink its self-imposed constraints.

The West wants to have a Schrodinger’s war: to pretend that its involvement in the conflict is in an indeterminate state when the US and NATO are clearly co-belligerents. Keep in mind that so far, NATO members have slipped the leash of Ukraine attempts to depict various shellings as attacks on NATO members

Remember, we and others have pointed out that there is no reason to assume the belligerents will hammer out an agreement, since many conflicts end without a deal. And as we said from very early on, there isn’t good reason to think one will happen here.

A top priority for Russia is to get Ukraine to commit to neutrality or otherwise keep it out of NATO’s hands, while the US position is that nobody outside NATO has a say in who might be a NATO member. And for Ukraine, or at least the Banderites, the war must be kept going as long as possible. Once US/NATO money and materiel largely evaporates, the current Ukraine leaders will be at the mercy of the Russian government, with their personal power and prospects for further enrichment very much diminished. A few might survive and even prosper, but as a group, they will suffer a very big fall.

And as noted the US and NATO are still trying to escalate….or at best, escalating because past measures like the great Ukraine counteroffensive have failed. And worse, Western experts are admitting that Russia has been improving its tactics and weapons over the course of the war, as Simplicius the Thinker recounts in his latest post. So the US, which earlier nixed F-16s for Ukraine now will be sending them. ABC has reported that the US is now likely to send ATACMS missiles, which have a longer range than HIMARS. Many commentators Ukraine will use to strike Crimea and the Kerch Bridge.1

Why do we think the West has caught itself in a bind?

For Russia, the war is existential. Too many Western officials have depicted victory as Russia being so battered that Putin is ousted and even the breakup of Russia. Russian opinion has hardened due those pronouncements, along with Western efforts not just to support the Ukraine war, but also to cancel Russian athletes, performers, and even its culture, and to continued Ukraine missile strikes on the civilian Donetsk city.

At least for now, the US/NATO combine is acting as if the war is existential, even though, as Ray McGovern has pointed out, there is not a shred of evidence that Russia has any interest in acquiring territory in NATO countries. Consider how Germany has allowed itself to be deindustrialized and has not acted in response to the Nord Stream attack, which the German press depicts as the handiwork of its ally Ukraine, and the US cannot plausibly have not known what was up. Those actions show the depth of commitment.

As for Russia’s posture towards Ukraine, Putin rejected the efforts of the Donbass separatists to join Russia prior to the special military operation, and moved to annex the four oblasts that Russia had partially occupied only after the embarrassing pullbacks from Kherson and Kharkiv last year. That left the civilians who had helped the Russians exposed to reprisals, and others in areas where Russia had taken ground worried about Russia’s commitment. But now that sentiment in Russia has hardened and the West is not backing down, Russia seems destined to gobble up more of Ukraine. And what happens to Western Ukraine then is very much an open question.

However the US/NATO position that the NATO will always have an open door policy may wind up being existential for NATO. If the US were to get over itself, it could agree to stop NATO expansion eastward where it is now (not that Russia would necessarily believe that) which might allow NATO to continue to exist only a bit bruised via how badly the NATO-trained and equipped forces in Ukraine fared versus Russia. Instead, NATO is actually doubling down, for instance via the pleasing-nobody compromise floated by a deputy of NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, of Ukraine ceding land to Russia in return for an immediate NATO membership. What about “Russia will not accept NATO on its border” don’t you understand? This sort of thing only further confirms the notion that the West has no interest in considering Russia’s security needs.

And Russia can’t have missed Anthony Blinken’s position when head of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley had the temerity last fall to suggest that Ukraine negotiate after it had recaptured some ground so as to improve its bargaining position. Milley was made to walk his mention of negotiations back at that time. Blinken committed the US and NATO to continuing to arm Ukraine to revisit the war at a later date. Key extracts from his Washington Post interview with David Ignatius:

Secretary of State Antony Blinken outlined his strategy for the Ukrainian endgame and postwar deterrence during an interview on Monday at the State Department….

He also underlined President Biden’s determination to avoid direct military conflict with Russia, even as U.S. weapons help pulverize Putin’s invasion force. “Biden has always been emphatic that one of his requirements in Ukraine is that there be no World War III,” Blinken said.

Russia’s colossal failure to achieve its military goals, Blinken believes, should now spur the United States and its allies to begin thinking about the shape of postwar Ukraine — and how to create a just and durable peace that upholds Ukraine’s territorial integrity and allows it to deter and, if necessary, defend against any future aggression. In other words, Russia should not be able to rest, regroup and reattack.

Blinken’s deterrence framework is somewhat different from last year’s discussions with Kyiv about security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5. Rather than such a formal treaty pledge, some U.S. officials increasingly believe the key is to give Ukraine the tools it needs to defend itself. Security will be ensured by potent weapons systems — especially armor and air defense — along with a strong, noncorrupt economy and membership in the European Union.

The Pentagon’s current stress on providing Kyiv with weapons and training for maneuver warfare reflects this long-term goal of deterrence. “The importance of maneuver weapons isn’t just to give Ukraine strength now to regain territory but as a deterrent against future Russian attacks,” explained a State Department official familiar with Blinken’s thinking. “Maneuver is the future.”

Given that the current Ukraine government continues to insist that it must recapture all of the pre-2014 Ukraine, it’s clear that any rearming of Ukraine by the West would lead to new hostilities…and not instigated by Russia.

However, as an aside, the Post also unwittingly tells us why Project Ukraine is doomed. The US has not adapted to the new ISR paradigm which Russia is perfecting with every passing day. As various military experts have pointed out, maneuver warfare (which among other things depends on massing forces to punch through enemy lines) is no longer possible with a peer power. Your build-up of men and materiel will be seen and attacked before you launch your big punch.

Keep in mind what Blinken’s position also implies: the US believes it can run what amounts to a two front war. Blinken posits Russia somehow loses in Ukraine so as to allow the US and NATO to rearm it at their leisure so as to harass, um, pressure Russia further down the war. At the same time US is also determined to Do Something to its official Enemy #1, China. Since economic sanctions are working about as well against China as they have against Russia, what does the US and its Pacific allies have left besides military escalation? Or will mere relentless propaganda be enough to snooker the credulous American public?

So unless the US relents, Russia has no option but to continue to prosecute the war until Ukraine is prostrated or Russia has otherwise precipitated regime change in Kiev. Russia needs to capture Ukraine, either politically or practically. This outcome becomes even more important if the US sends ATACMS. Russia will need an even wider buffer zone (300 km versus 77 km for the HIMARS previously sent) to prevent their use against Russian territory.

However, an undeniable Ukraine loss, no matter how much porcine maquillage US and EU spokescritters apply, will, as Alastair Crooke in particular described long-form in a recent Duran program, will rattle smaller NATO members, who will doubt they can rely on NATO to come to their rescue. NATO may still be fit for purpose as a defensive alliance. However, the fact that the US and NATO members sent in a whole mess of heavily-hyped wunderwaffen that did pretty much nothing to blunt Russian operations, and some of which were impressively destroyed, like Leopard 2 and Challenger tanks and the West is not responding with a Sputnik-level effort to get Western firepower up to Russian levels, means there is good reason to doubt how well the NATO shield would hold up if tested.

Mind you, Crooke explained in a related article that US is (or the hawks think it is) moving in the direction of a long, low intensity conflict, which is consistent with the Blinken remarks above. But that US/Ukraine hope ignores again that the war is generally very much going in Russia’s direction, with Ukraine continuing to throw men and materiel against Russian positions, and Russia only engaging in fairly minor advances in and near Kupiansk to produce even more of the same. Russia wanted to attrit Ukraine and is getting that outcome. And Russia can and will increase the intensity when it suits Russia.

One would think, given both the weakening Ukraine position, and the all-too-obvious need for the Biden Administration not to suffer a visible defeat in Ukraine, the optimal time would be between March and October 2024. However, that still may not take the form of the too-eagerly-hoped for big arrow attacks unless the Ukraine army is severely degraded.2 But the flip side is when Russia finally cracks the last Ukraine line of defense in the Donbass, there’s not much in the way of defensible positions west of Lugansk up to the Dnieper.3

In other words, the way to an end game is regime change. And the weak regimes are all in the West.
____

1 Admittedly, the US has pushed back the delivery date of Abrams tanks to next year….but they are so heavy they would probably be useless in the soon-to-arrive mud season.

Dima at Military Summary today noted that Russia has not engaged in the sort of massive missile strikes of Ukraine that had been its habit, although it is still regularly striking selective targets, such as yesterday an ammo depot in Kiev, rumored to hold depleted uranium shells. He speculates they are accumulating stocks for big strikes in the winter to again damage the electrical grid. If Russia indeed has been caching missiles, they could also be keeping them in reserve for major retaliatory strikes.

2 Another issue is that Russia knows it is dealing with people who do not have a good grip on reality, and you don’t make sudden moves around crazy people, particularly when they possess nukes.

3 This makes the continuing fight over Bakhmut rational. That is on the third of four Ukraine defensive lines, but the last is seen as weak. If Russia were to move forces up to the Dnieper, it is hard to see how the West could not see that as undeniable evidence of Russian success, which would threaten the position of the Ukraine regime with its patrons.

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Tue Sep 12, 2023 12:01 pm

Treachery"
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 09/12/2023

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Like legitimacy, the idea of ​​betrayal has been a constant throughout the nine and a half years since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict that broke out with the irregular change of power in Kiev and led to the accession of Crimea to Russia and at the beginning of the war in Donbass, a period that finally led to the Russian invasion of February 2022. History is written by the victors and the legislation, who maintain power at a certain moment. In the case of Ukraine, events have led to polarization that has involved legislating the definition of treason, something to which kyiv has devoted much time and propaganda over the years. Now, with the war at one of its peak moments, Foreign Policy has focused on the issue with an article by Adrian Karatnycky. Like the vast majority of analysis articles published in Western media, Katatnycky is not an analyst but a lobbyist. A prominent member of the Atlantic Council, he is also the founder of the Myrmidon Group, “a small consulting firm based in New York with a representation in Kyiv that works with investors and corporations seeking to enter the complex but lucrative emerging markets of Ukraine and Eastern Europe. ”. None of this makes Karatnycky a minimally objective source in the current conflict, although it is an example of the type of analysis of this war and the type of people who are carrying it out.

“For money or conviction, some Ukrainians are helping Russia murder their compatriots,” announces Foreign Policyin the subtitle of an article that begins by comparing those people he points out as traitors with three historical figures: Benedict Arnold, an American who deserted to the British troops during the War of Independence and perhaps the best-known traitor of the United States; Vikdun Quisling, former Norwegian diplomat who led the puppet government of Nazi Germany and Phillippe Pétain, the World War I hero who led also puppet Vichy France. “The names of famous traitors and collaborators of the enemy resonate throughout history,” says Karatnycky, who adds that “now, their ranks are expanding in the Russia-Ukraine war, although few names have become infamous outside of Ukraine.” .


In that category comparable to three historical figures of recognized betrayal, especially serious in the case of the last two, collaborators of the most genocidal regime in history, the lobbyist includes all types of people who have chosen authoritarian Russia over democratic Ukraine, not only from the beginning of the war, but from the moment of independence. “Since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine's history as an independent nation has seen a great deal of betrayal and desertion. From the beginning, Russian leaders who resented Ukraine's break with Moscow found willing helpers in their efforts to subvert the Ukrainian state and infiltrate its security institutions," says the lobbyist, who throughout the article shows that the subtle line between betrayal and the defense of a Ukraine that is not necessarily anti-Russian does not seem to exist in his approach.

Among those traitors whose work is not even detailed, since the objective is simply to point the finger of accusation and generate doubts about anyone who does not follow the precepts of today's nationalist Ukraine, Karatnycky highlights three reasons: those who defected in the beginning because of the failure of the first managers of Ukraine, “essentially former apparatchiks of the Communist Party and the so-called red directors , to create a national narrative, not to mention a well-governed state in the style of the Baltic countries or central Europe; who believed, because of the Russian imperial narrative, never by their own conviction, in the unity of the Russian and Ukrainian people and who believed in the need for a strong hand in the face of “the often dysfunctional existence” of the first years of independence. In short, the reasoning must derive from the Soviet Union, the Russian imperial narrative or the non-European mentality that leads to the country having become less like the good Baltic Europeans than desired .

With these three reasons, Foreign Policy defines any person of Ukrainian nationality who has rejected the social model and political path of modern Ukraine, an extreme simplification of a country with many more complexities than it wants to be believed. That has also been one of the constants of this war. The analysis of good and evil that dominates Western discourse has made any nuanced discussion impossible about the disagreements that part of the population has expressed about the political path taken by Ukraine. Presenting Russia's choice over Ukraine or the defense of a different Ukraine than the current one as treasonin times of war is nothing more than the next step in the infantilization of a narrative used to justify, not only the political choice of the Maidan regime but also the collective punishment of populations considered disloyal.

Despite opening the article with those traitors who murder their compatriots , throughout the text the shadow of Viktor Medvedchuk is widely observed, one of the main accused in the article and whose sin is not murdering Ukrainians but not having agreed to play the game of complete submission to the precepts of Maidan. Medvedchuk, accused like Petro Poroshenko in a politically fabricated case, was handed over to Russia as a prisoner of war, an ideal scapegoat to present the image of betrayal before the cameras .. Leader of the party that was leading in the polls until he was detained and kept under house arrest while Poroshenko moved freely in and out of the national territory, Medvedchuk served as a liaison between the Government of Ukraine and the People's Republics, a relationship with Donetsk and Lugansk that It was the perfect excuse for the accusation. The politician's pro-Ukrainian stance or his open hostility to the DPR and LPR militias mattered little.

Also helping to create a parody of the figure of Medvedchuk - in reality a mediocre politician with nothing to contribute - was his supposed closeness to Putin and his economic interests in Russia. In the latter, Medvedchuk shares characteristics with the last two presidents of Ukraine: Poroshenko owned factories in Russia and Zelensky's production company had Russian-speaking countries as its main market. However, in certain cases, those connections are more than enough to place a person in the category of potential traitor. In the case of Medvedchuk, his presence in the media market collaborates in this qualification, demonized since the victory of Maidan and finally banned, as have been others whose editorial line deviated minimally from the nationalism marked by Maidan.

Many of those traitors that the Foreign Policy article denounces refer to this category and not to people who murder Ukrainians . Of course, Karatnycky seems to see a direct line between “not patriotic, but not illegal” pro-Russian beliefs and those who “crossed the line to actively support Russian attempts to destroy Ukraine” as “spies, spy instructors, informants or agents of influence. ” ”. There too, the perspective leaves it to the discretion of the observer, authority or any person who proclaims themselves a judge to classify any behavior as treason.

Defining treason “can be very treacherous,” says Karatnycky, who sees “anyone who intentionally harms the security of their own country, especially in times of war, collaborating with the enemy” as the definition of treason. However, the lobbyist starts from the official definition used by Ukraine already before February 2022, which described as treason the “intentional actions of any citizen to the detriment of the sovereignty of Ukraine, its territorial integrity and inviolability, defense capacity and security.” of the State, economic or information.” This is a definition created specifically to be broad enough to punish anyone who espouses wrong ideas.or who had collaborated in any way with the Popular Republics. This has been demonstrated by Ukraine with its statements and its attempt to expand the category of treason to include, for example, teachers who have taught according to the Russian program throughout these years. For Ukraine, as for those who, as lobbyists, defend its model, treason is a term widely used as collective punishment for those who went from unpatriotic attitudes to acts such as collaborating so that the administrations of Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk could remain minimally functional.

The approach is based on considering that the rights of citizenship imply the duty of patriotism, even in moments of abandonment of State functions and aggression against the population. The contempt for the population of Crimea and especially for that of the industrial and proletarian region of Donbass has meant that the narrative about what happened in 2014 has been usurped by lobbyists who, like Karatnycky, present the events as a Russian aggression and not as a attack by Ukraine, which opted for the anti-terrorist operationto solve a social and political problem through military means. Militaryly and economically attacked for years, the population of Donbass responded with a resistance that continues today and for which their loyalties have irrevocably changed. In this context, without the participation of the population, the minimal functioning of the state structures of the People's Republics, which arose and were maintained in the face of Ukraine's refusal to offer accommodation to those regions and their people, would have been impossible. And it is there that Karatnycky sees “the broadest cohorts of traitors” in the form of “Ukrainian collaborators in Russian-occupied Ukraine.”

Treason is working, or collaborating , so that hospitals continue to function, so that pensions are paid, so that children have education and recreational activities, or writing to publicize the effects of the bombings or the Ukrainian blockade, a reasoning that can only lead to punitive approaches such as those that Ukraine hopes to put into practice in the event of recovering territories such as Donbass or Crimea. Articles like Karatnycky's are the prelude to the justification of revenge as a legitimate objective and form of justice.

All this is simpler with the use of the mantra of the unity of the Ukrainian people , which is based on ignoring that three regions of the country openly and clearly positioned themselves against the change of government in Kiev in February 2014 and have been punished for it. Eliminated with a stroke of the pen that reaction of the population, which in the case of Donbass led to taking up arms against the aggression of the Ukrainian Armed Forces or seeing in it a Russian invasion, it is easier to see that unity that only exists in the minds of lobbyists and ideologues.

Only in this way is it possible to believe that “since 2014 and especially since 2022, Ukraine has seen the consolidation of almost complete support for the sovereign and independent Ukrainian State and the identity free of Russian domination.” This false discourse of unity denies the rebellion of three regions against the State that was being built not in favor of independence but against Russia and against a way of understanding Ukraine that did not involve confrontation with the neighboring country and the breaking of cultural ties. social and historical. With the duty of patriotism as the fundamental basis of the State's expectations towards its population, this position is presented as treason., something that, according to Karatnycky, causes a revulsion that “also leads to efforts by the Government and civil society to document acts of betrayal, even by Ukrainians who have fled abroad, in the hope that, over time, , justice is served.” The SBU murder program that The Economist referred to last week suggests that these informal judges have already dispensed their form of justice . Revenge and hatred camouflaged as justice and unity can only lead to more confrontation.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/09/12/la-tr ... more-28120

Google Translator

*******

Chronicle of a special military operation for September 11, 2023
September 11, 2023
Rybar

Heavy fighting continues along the entire front line. In the Starobelsky and Bakhmutsky directions, the enemy is attempting attacks, which are stopped by Russian cannon and rocket artillery.

In the Vremevsky sector, the enemy is rotating and preparing new assaults, constantly throwing maneuverable infantry groups to the front line, where they are crushed by artillery and air strikes.

In the Orekhovsky sector, Russian troops are counterattacking and seeking to dislodge Ukrainian Armed Forces units from positions east of Rabotino . And on the approaches to Verbovoy , fierce fighting continues with the active use of both drones and artillery.

In addition, footage of the landing of the airborne forces on the platforms of gas production installations west of Crimea appeared online . Despite the statements of the Ukrainian media, this is just another PR campaign that has no practical benefit. After the shooting, the enemy left the structures for fear of being destroyed by Russian aviation fire.

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About the landing of power steering troops on gas production installations

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Today, the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate published footage of the landing on gas production installations (GDU) west of Crimea , loudly declaring control over them. However, this video has nothing to do with real facts and is intended to raise the morale of its own audience.

By all indications, the materials were filmed during the previous attacks of the Ukrainian DRG to the Crimea, most likely during the very first relatively successful attempts, when the enemy struck the S -300 air defense system at Cape Tarkhankut and landed at Olenevka .

Judging by the video, members of the GUR landed on the platforms, filmed a video with the flag and immediately left the gas production installations. There is no talk of any control over them, given the constant patrolling of the zone by Russian pilots and the fact that yesterday’s group of boats was defeated 100 km southeast of Odessa - they cannot get close to the main control station.

But we can explain the interest in empty GDUs by their location - if you look at the map, then when moving from the Odessa region, you get very convenient positions for logistics support for boats, placement of communications equipment and reconnaissance equipment.

Therefore, ensuring constant patrolling of this zone is now one of the priority tasks of the sailors and pilots of the Black Sea Fleet - after all, if they gain a foothold there, then it will be a stone’s throw from these gas control centers to Crimea.

Shelling of front-line and rear areas of Russia over the past week

Over the past week, Ukrainian formations continued to strike at front-line settlements in Russia . At the same time, an increase in the intensity of shelling was recorded only in the Kherson region - by 11%, while in the DPR and Belgorod region the situation remained the same.

The largest amount of ammunition continued to be fired in the Donetsk agglomeration : in addition to dozens of damaged civilian objects, seven civilians were killed in the region, and at least 50 were injured of varying degrees of severity. In all other front-line territories, only one person was killed and two were injured.

The Bryansk region was also subjected to a massive attack : air defense systems intercepted enemy UAVs several times both on approach and in Bryansk itself . However, during one of the raids, the building of the Silicon El microelectronics plant was damaged.

At the same time, Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups continue to operate in the border area: one of them was destroyed by Russian fighters early last week in the area of ​​​​the village of Podyvotie . According to some reports, there were some deaths and injuries among law enforcement officers.

In addition, the enemy continued to use drones to attack rear regions: Russian anti-aircraft gunners and electronic warfare units neutralized drones in the Republic of Crimea , as well as the Rostov , Tver , Kaluga , Oryol and Volgograd regions . The last of them came under attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the first time since the beginning of the special operation.

The situation on the front line and combat operations

In the Starobelsky direction, fierce fighting continues in the Serebryansky forestry area . The enemy is launching attacks, trying to prevent the Russian Armed Forces from reaching the Seversky Donets . In addition, the offensive of Russian forces east of Oskol continues : units of the Russian Armed Forces have occupied several strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.


In the Soledar direction, the enemy is replenishing the forces knocked out in fruitless attacks. At the same time, Russian troops continue to repel enemy attacks on the southern flank of the Bakhmut defense . Obituaries of ex-police officers who were sent to storm Russian positions near Kleshcheevka appear on Ukrainian social networks .


In the Avdeevsky sector, Ukrainian formations tried to advance in the area of ​​the village of Opytnoye . According to some reports, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to achieve tactical success, but there is no confirmation of this information.


In the Vremyevsky sector, the Ukrainian Armed Forces reduced their offensive activity near Novomayorsky to carry out rotation and prepare for new assault attempts. In the first half of the day, relative calm remained in the area of ​​​​the populated area, but later the enemy launched an attack on two MRAPs: the first was destroyed by an accurate artillery hit, and the second hastily left, abandoning the wounded members of the landing force from the damaged vehicle. Meanwhile, north of Priyutnoye, Ukrainian troops tried unsuccessfully to storm Russian positions.


We have at our disposal footage that ideally demonstrates the nature of the fighting at the Novomayorskoye-Novodonetskoye line . The video clearly shows the tactics of the “meat assault” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the positions of the Russian Armed Forces. In our reports, we have repeatedly noted that in the south the Ukrainian command is very careful about Western-made armored vehicles, placing them above their own people. This is confirmed by objective control footage.

First, the infantry group is transported on an armored fighting vehicle or armored personnel carrier closer to the front line, and then the assault detachment goes on foot through the plantings and trenches, trying to cling to strong points under artillery fire. And in some cases they succeed, the Ukrainian Armed Forces even reach houses, where they are tightly covered by Russian artillery and they roll back to their starting points. And in most attacks, the assault fizzles out before it even begins.

To be fair, in conditions of mined terrain and stable defense, there are not many options for storming strong points. However, if under the same Bakhmut the detachments of the Wagner PMC successfully advanced and took cities and villages, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are content with forest plantations with a much larger number of “living waves” and losses. At the same time, the Ukrainian command does not yet plan to abandon such hammering. And specifically in this situation, I would like to note the command of the 40th Guards Infantry Brigade and the 30th Artillery Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, which coordinate the actions of UAV operators and artillery crews, not allowing the enemy to break into the defense.


In the Orekhovsky sector, Russian units are trying to push out Ukrainian formations from a position east of Rabotino . During the fighting, several enemy armored vehicles were destroyed, and some of the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers surrendered. At the same time, in the area of ​​the populated area itself and on the approaches to Verbovoy , the number of disabled armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces continues to gradually replenish.

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas

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At night, Ukrainian formations attempted to strike in the Belgorod region . The governor of the region announced the activation of air defense systems in the Yakovlevsky urban district and the destruction of two air targets. There were no injuries; debris from the UAV fell on the roadway near the house. Judging by the chassis, at least one of the devices was from the Mugin family. In the afternoon, Ukrainian formations shelled Repyakhovka , there were no casualties, but two households were damaged. And in the Valuysk urban district , air defense systems went off, shooting down an aircraft-type UAV.

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Throughout the day, Ukrainian formations have been shelling populated areas of the Donetsk agglomeration , including using cluster munitions. In the capital of the republic, residential buildings were damaged, as well as a kindergarten building, a gas pipeline and power lines. Temporary problems with energy supply have arisen in the Kuibyshevsky district.

In neighboring Makeevka, the Chervonogvardeisky district was under fire : one man received shrapnel wounds, and he is receiving all the necessary medical care. Another civilian was injured in the village of Kermenchik , Volnovakha district - the settlement is located south of Novodonetskoye, on the outskirts of which fierce fighting has continued over the past days. In addition, Gorlovka , Yasinovataya and Aleksandrovka came under enemy fire . By the end of the day, information was also received about the wounding of two more people: in the Kiev region of Donetsk and in Yelenovka .

In the Zaporozhye region, Ukrainian formations again used drones to attack Energodar : several devices hit residential high-rise buildings, and the passport office was also damaged.

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During the night, the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired at least 35 shells from cannon artillery at populated areas on the left bank of the Kherson region . Kakhovka , Cossack Camps and Aleshki were also under fire . And in Novaya Kakhovka, the city water supply building and the ambulance station were damaged. In addition, during enemy shelling in the Novokakhovsky urban district, problems arose with power supply.

Political events
On the intensification of the EU's hunt for the property of Russians

Colleagues from the Telegram channel Systemic Pesticide report that the EU is intensifying the hunt for the property of Russian citizens: the European Commission has confirmed a ban on the import of personal cars, smartphones, laptops and jewelry from Russia. The EU issued an explanation after a number of cases of seizure of personal cars of Russian citizens at German customs. The explanation that the car was used for personal purposes did not satisfy the customs officers.

At the same time, other personal belongings of Russians may now be at risk of seizure: cosmetics, suitcases, laptops, mobile phones, leather and fur products, semi-precious and precious stones, toilet paper, shampoos, toothpastes, trailers and semi-trailers for transporting goods, yachts, cameras. Each country in the EU can apply its own rules for the import of these items, that is, now in relation to citizens of the Russian Federation the law can be interpreted in any way.

We are not even surprised that after squeezing out the assets of the state in the West, they switched to the personal belongings of citizens. This is exactly how “private property protection” works. I wonder how FBK (extremists) will comment on such news? After all, there are people in white coats broadcasting from Great Britain about the benefits of sanctions against Russia and Russians, and also looking for new victims to squeeze out property.

About Zelensky’s threats to countries sheltering Ukrainian refugees

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky indirectly threatened Europe with problems with Ukrainian refugees if military and financial assistance were completed or reduced. According to him, quoted by The Economist magazine , this could cause an unpredictable reaction from millions of Ukrainian refugees in European countries. Adding that a long war of attrition will mean that Ukraine will lose even more people, both on the front line and due to emigration.

“Reducing aid to Ukraine will only prolong the war,” Zelensky argues. And it will create risks for the West in its own backyard. It is impossible to predict how millions of Ukrainian refugees in European countries will react to being abandoned by their country. Ukrainians generally “behaved well” and are “very grateful” to those who sheltered them. They will not forget this generosity. But it would not be a “good story” for Europe if it “drove these people into a corner,” the Ukrainian president said.

In other words, Zelensky threatens Europe, if not with terrorist activities, then with riots. However, the goal may be different. Given the lack of mobilization reserves and the sending of summons to Ukrainian citizens living abroad, this may prompt the mass expulsion of Ukrainians directly into the hands of military commissars.

About supplies of ATACMS missiles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces

The likelihood of ATACMS missiles appearing is already quite high compared to August last year. Such conditions were created primarily by the reaction of the Russian authorities, or rather the lack thereof, to the increasingly aggressive actions of the collective West. Talking and threatening is good, but it would be nice to back up everything said with actions.

And ATACMS will appear when the Ukrainian formations feel a shortage of long-range weapons. So far they have cruise missiles and various modified strike systems.

The situation with cluster munitions was similar. The Americans did not allow their use until there was a "famine" with conventional shells. The same will most likely happen here.

Unloading armored vehicles in Germany


Our reader from Germany shared footage taken a few weeks ago at the port of Bremerhaven . The photo shows the unloading of American military equipment from transport ships.

The shooting was carried out from a sufficient distance, which makes it difficult to determine the type of equipment, but at least several frames show a MaxxPRO MRAP and a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle - all in a sandy paint job.

The destination of the American armored vehicles is unknown, but the sea route is actively used to transport equipment not only for the rotation of US Armed Forces units in Europe, but also for transporting goods to Ukraine.

Considering that there is quite a bit of time left for the active phase of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive, the forced transfer of additional equipment against the backdrop of losses in the Orekhovsky and Vremyevsky sectors looks quite expected.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

*******

Zelensky Threatens To Terrorize Europe

The Economist published another interview with the Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski.

It includes his usual unrealistic platitudes about not ending the war until Russia has completely pulled back. Speaking with an English language media he didn't miss to mention the ever misunderstood story about Chamberlain's move in Munich:

Tapping loudly on the table, Mr Zelensky rejects outright the idea of compromise with Vladimir Putin. War will continue for “as long as Russia remains on Ukrainian territory”, he says. A negotiated deal would not be permanent. The Russian president has a habit of creating “frozen conflicts” on Russia’s borders (in Georgia, for example), not as ends in themselves but because his goal is to “restore the Soviet Union”. Those who choose to talk to the man in the Kremlin are “tricking themselves”, much like the Western leaders who signed an agreement with Adolf Hitler at Munich in 1938 only to watch him invade Czechoslovakia. “The mistake is not diplomacy. The mistake is diplomacy with Putin. He negotiates only with himself.”

In 1938 Chamberlain had no other choice but to give in on Czechoslovakia. Britain was not ready for war and the parts Hitler wanted to annex from Czechoslovakia had undeniably a largely German population:

He contended that Sudeten German grievances were justified and believed that Hitler's intentions were limited.

Zelenski goes on to threaten, in rather unthankful fashion, those countries which have delivered aid to Ukraine but may want to cut their losses:

Curtailing aid to Ukraine will only prolong the war, Mr Zelensky argues. And it would create risks for the West in its own backyard. There is no way of predicting how the millions of Ukrainian refugees in European countries would react to their country being abandoned. Ukrainians have generally “behaved well” and are “very grateful” to those who sheltered them. They will not forget that generosity. But it would not be a “good story” for Europe if it were to “drive these people into a corner”.

I have seen such threats from low ranking individuals of the fascist Bandera fringe. They spoke of terrorism they would unleash in the West should it end its support for Ukraine. That the Ukrainian president now reinforces such threats shows how deeply he immersed himself in that mindset.

A previous Economist story shows that Ukraine has already set up the necessary infrastructure to wage a terrorist campaign:

In modern Ukraine, assassinations date back to at least 2015, when its domestic security service (SBU) created a new body after Russia had seized Crimea and the eastern Donbas region. The elite fifth counter-intelligence directorate started life as a saboteur force in response to the invasion. It later came to focus on what is euphemistically called “wet work”.

Valentin Nalivaychenko, who headed the SBU at the time, says the switch came about when Ukraine’s then leaders decided that a policy of imprisoning collaborators was not enough. Prisons were overflowing, but few were deterred. “We reluctantly came to the conclusion that we needed to eliminate terrorists,” he says. A former officer of the directorate describes it in similar terms. “We needed to bring war to them.” In 2015 and 2016 the directorate was linked to the assassinations of key Russian-backed commanders in the Donbas; Mikhail Tolstykh, aka “Givi”, killed in a rocket attack; Arsen Pavlov, aka “Motorola”, blown up in a lift; Alexander Zakharchenko, blown up in a restaurant (pictured).


Intelligence insiders say the SBU’s fifth directorate is playing a central role in counter-Russia operations.

From there it is just a short step towards total war:

Meanwhile, a long war of attrition would mean a fork in the road for Ukraine. The country would lose even more people, both on the front lines and to emigration. It would require a “totally militarised economy”. The government would have to put that prospect to its citizens, Mr Zelensky says, without specifying how; a new social contract could not be the decision of one person. Almost 19 months into the war, the president says he is “morally” ready for the switch. But he will only broach the idea with his people if the weakness in the eyes of his Western backers becomes a “trend”. Has that moment come? No, not yet, he says. “Thank God.”
Does Zelenski know of any country with a totally militarized economy that survived? I have yet to hear of one.

Anyway. To end the war is not in his hands. But can the West end the war?

Yves Smith takes a look:

Has the West Closed All Its Project Ukraine Exits?

She concludes that an end to the war is unlikely until bigger things change:

In other words, the way to an end game is regime change. And the weak regimes are all in the West.

Posted by b on September 11, 2023 at 12:51 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/09/z ... .html#more

All of the Donbass resistance was 'Russian backed' eventually, but those leaders were immensely popular with the people of Donbass and beyond. They were assassinated for propaganda purposes, but just as with these nickel-dime attacks on Crimea they only serve to stiffen resolve and perhaps a desire for revenge.

*******

Sweden’s Joining NATO Was Set in Motion in the 1980s in a False Flag Attack Orchestrated by the CIA
By Jeremy Kuzmarov - September 11, 2023

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Helicopters and boats hunting “Soviet” submarines in Hårsfjärden as part of false-flag military operation that helped turn public opinion against Russia in Sweden. [Source: Ola Tunander, The Secret War Against Sweden, 192]

U.S. and British Intelligence Staged a Soviet Naval Incursion in Swedish Waters in Order to Turn Sweden Against Russia and Draw It Closer to the U.S.[/i]

At the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Vilnius in early July, Sweden was admitted into NATO together with Finland, pending ratification by Turkey’s Grand National Assembly.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had been trying to block this move because of Sweden’s favorable treatment of Kurdish refugees, though changed its position after U.S. President Joe Biden effectively bribed him by offering him a $11-13 million line of credit by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to journalist Seymour Hersh, and also agreed to transfer $20 billion worth of F-16 fighter jets and modernization kits for its existing planes.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, left, and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson shake hands next to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg prior to their meeting, on the eve of a NATO summit, in Vilnius, Monday, July 10, 2023. Erdogan’s abrupt approval of Sweden’s NATO bid came after a year of objections to Stockholm to joining the defense alliance.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, left, and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson shake hands next to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg prior to their meeting, on the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 10, 2023. Erdoğan’s abrupt approval of Sweden’s NATO bid came after a year of his objections to Stockholm joining the “defense” alliance. [Source: news.yahoo.com]
NATO was established in 1949 with the goal of containing alleged Soviet expansion, and is now perceived in Russia as a hostile Western military alliance whose main purpose is to isolate Russia and to ensure Western military supremacy around the world.

Sweden’s Social Democratic Party has supported Sweden’s joining NATO along with the country’s more centrist and right-leaning parties.[1] The Social Democrats have provided anti-ship and anti-tank missiles to Ukraine for use in its war against Russia and participated in NATO war games that were staged as a provocation toward Russia.

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[Source: covertactionmagazine.com]

The Social Democrats’ support for NATO and the war in Ukraine represents a dramatic shift from the early 1980s when Sweden’s Social Democratic Prime Minister Olof Palme (1969-1976 and 1982-1986) supported an independent and neutralist foreign policy for Sweden and initiated a Western-Soviet dialogue on security and disarmament.

Palme had aimed to create a nuclear weapons-free zone and disarmament pact in Nordic countries, had marched in anti-Vietnam War rallies with North Vietnam’s ambassador to Sweden, and supported Third World liberation movements like the Sandinistas, the African National Congress (ANC) and FRELIMO in Mozambique, as well as the Cuban revolution.[2]

Former CIA Director James Schlesinger warned in the early 1980s that Palme’s ideals were spreading across Western Europe, which it was feared would abandon the U.S. and move to a neutral position in the Cold War.

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Olof Palme [Source: wikipedia.org]
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James Schlesinger [Source: findagrave.com]

To avert this outcome, the CIA launched among the most successful covert operations of the Cold War with Britain’s MI6 in September-October 1982, during which it staged an incursion by Soviet submarines into Swedish waters to make it look like Sweden was coming under attack on its home soil for the first time since 1809.[3]

More than 750 journalists were brought into the Swedish Navy’s Press Center where they reported on complex operations being carried out by the Swedish Navy against the “Soviet intruder” that included the use of depth charges.[4]

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Use of depth charges by Swedish military in Hårsfjärden causes explosion. [Source: Tunander, The Secret War Against Sweden, 194]

The “war” against the Soviets entered the living rooms of every Swede and was front-page news in the U.S. and Europe. Even the head of Sweden’s Communist Party, Lars Werner, believed the official story and that Sweden had a right to protest the Soviet Union’s actions.

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Members of the press observing military operations in “phony war.” [Source: Tunander, The Secret War Against Sweden, 194]

It was all, however, an optical illusion as the submarines were British, Italian and American ones sent on provocative missions along with a few Soviet ones that had been baited into Swedish waters, and Sweden was never really at war with the Soviets.

The Soviets had been set up in a covert psychological/black-flag operation that was vital in shifting Swedish opinion and undermining Palme’s détente policy.

Whereas in 1980 only 5-10% of Swedes viewed the Soviet Union as a direct threat, by 1983 45% viewed it as such. In the same period, the number of Swedes viewing the Soviets as unfriendly increased from 30% to 80%.

Ola Tunander’s book, The Secret War Against Sweden: U.S. and British Submarine Deception in the 1980s (London: Frank Cass, 2004), provides significant evidence in exposing a U.S.-UK false-flag operation that had huge political implications.[5]

Tunander writes that the “Anglo-American deception operation” involving the phony Soviet submarine attack made Palme’s disarmament initiatives “look pathetic,” put the Swedish Social Democrats on the defensive, and mobilized large parts of the Swedish population against the Soviet threat, which appeared to be real.[6]

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[Source: onlybooks.org]
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Ola Tunander [Source: ivarfjeld.com]

Whereas only 15-20% of Swedes before the incident were in favor of increasing military spending, more than 50% favored it afterwards.

The ripple effects can still be felt today as Palme’s vision of peaceful cooperation with the Russians has been totally eradicated and Sweden is about to become a member of NATO—which Palme would have abhorred.

Official Version of History Debunked
Officially, following the stranding of a Soviet Whiskey class submarine in 1981 on the Swedish archipelago, a series of massive submarine intrusions took place within Swedish waters, which was later described as the first Soviet military initiative against a Western European state since the Berlin crisis of 1960/61 resulting in the erection of the Berlin Wall.

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Submarine off Swedish waters in 1981. [Source: ebid.net]

After a dramatic submarine hunt in 1982, a Swedish commission said that six Soviet submarines had carried out war games in the Stockholm archipelago, including one in Stockholm harbor. The Swedish government protested to the Soviet Union and diplomatic relations between the two countries were effectively destroyed.

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Fast attack craft 160 Väktaren—the Swedish vessel that dropped most depth charges during the submarine hunt. [Source: Tunander, The Secret War Against Sweden, 194]

Milton Leitenberg, a think tank analyst with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, claimed that the Soviets had carried out between 100-200 submarine incursions in Swedish territorial waters from 1980 to 1986 in what became the standard view embraced in the media and academia.[7]

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(Praeger Security International)[Source: amazon.in]

In 1990, Jack Anderson and Dale Van Atta wrote in The Washington Post, referring to CIA sources, that the submarine “incidents in Swedish waters have continued at a rate of 30 or more a year, and they have become even more daring.” This Soviet arrogance was, according to Anderson and Van Atta, an argument for not taking Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev’s courting of Western Europe seriously.

Classified documents revealed years later, however, point to covert Western, rather than Soviet, activity and that the Soviet intrusions were manipulated or simply invented.

Former U.S. Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger acknowledged in a November 1981 Swedish TV interview that Western testing operations had been carried out regularly in Swedish waters.

Captain Robert Bathurst, the Assistant U.S. Naval Attaché to Moscow in the mid-1960s and Pentagon Director for Eastern European Affairs, also said that U.S. submarines had operated near Swedish waters at the time of the incident.

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U.S. Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger visiting the underground naval base at Muskö, Sweden, in late September 1981. He is guided (from left to right) by Chief of the Naval Base Christer Kierkegaard, Chief of the Coastal Fleet Bror Stefenson, and by Weinberger’s Swedish escort officer, Chief of Navy Vice Admiral Per Rudberg. On the right, the Swedish destroyer Halland. [Source: Tunander, The Secret War Against Sweden, 191]

An anonymous source confirmed Weinberger’s statement in 2001 when he wrote to Rolf Ekéus, Sweden’s Ambassador to the U.S. from 1997 to 2000, who was carrying out a Swedish government investigation:

“In the early 1980s, we routinely received a number of Swedish military/political delegations [NB not diplomatic] for ‘near-top consultations’… [One] talked about your problem with Soviet subs and literally invited us to test the Swedish defense with a ‘free-in-out guarantee.’ Your naval people wanted this to have your government shift budgets from air to naval defenses. So CW [Caspar Weinberger] promised that you’d have some subs to play with. That Whiskey sub must have been a real heaven sent gift for them though everyone here had a good laugh over the gullible Swedes!”

But this was not really something to laugh about since big lies were told, the prospect of world peace was compromised, and billions of dollars would come to be diverted into a destructive arms race.

Further corroboration that the public had been misled was given to Tunander by a) a senior Norwegian diplomat, Einar Ansteensen, who had been told by a senior U.S. Navy officer that a submarine that was damaged in Hårsfjärden was American rather than Soviet; b) Swedish Defense Minister Anders Thunborg who told Tunander that Sweden had no evidence that the Soviets were behind the incursions; c) British Navy Minister Sir Keith Speed, who spoke about a “penetration dive exercises deep within Swedish waters” by the British Royal Navy; and d) Royal Navy submarine captains who admitted to having carried out top secret operations in the Swedish archipelago.

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Sir Keith Speed [Source: thetimes.co.uk]
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[Source: lokalhistoriewiki.no]

In an interview with Dirk Pohlmann, who directed “Deception: The Reagan Method—Cold War in the Great North,” James “Ace” Lyons, Deputy Chief of Naval Operations from 1983 to 1985, said—with what appeared to be a wink—that, while some things are best kept to oneself, “that could have been an American operation.”

(more.....)

https://covertactionmagazine.com/2023/0 ... y-the-cia/

******

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Blinken: US Does Not Oppose Ukrainian Attacks Inside Russia With US-Supplied Missiles

The fact that we are drawing closer and closer to nuclear conflict should dominate headlines every single day, and the subject of how to avoid planetary disaster should be the constant focus of mainstream political discourse.

Caitlin Johnstone
September 11, 2023

During an appearance on ABC’s This Week with Jonathan Karl, Secretary of State Tony Blinken explicitly said that the US would not oppose Ukraine using US-supplied longer-range missiles to attack deep inside Russian territory, a move that Moscow has previously called a “red line” which would make the United States a direct party to the conflict.

“We understand that the United States is considering sending those long-range missiles that Ukraine has been asking for for a long time,” Karl said in the interview. “These are long-range missiles, 200 miles in range. Are you okay if those missiles allow Ukraine to attack deep into Russian territory?”

“In terms of their targeting decisions, it’s their decision, not ours,” answered Blinken after some bloviation.

“We’ve seen an increasing number of attacks on Russian territory by Ukrainian drones, some in Moscow, Rostov-on-Don just a couple of days ago. Did you bring that up?” asked Karl.

“No,” said Blinken.

“Are you — are you okay with — I mean, obviously, they’re — it’s their decisions, but is this war now escalating into Russia?” asked Karl.

“ Jon, we haven’t encouraged and we haven’t enabled any use of weapons outside of Ukraine’s territory,” Blinken said. “Having said that, let’s take a step back for a second. Virtually every single day the Russians are attacking indiscriminately throughout the entire country of Ukraine. Just during the 48 hours that I was there going in, more missiles were launched at civilian targets, including in Kyiv while I was there; a horrific attack on a marketplace, people just going to buy food, civilians, had nothing to do with this war — killed 17 people. This is the daily life for Ukrainians. This is what they face every single day. So they have to make the basic decisions about how they’re going to defend their territory and how they’re working to take back what’s been seized from them. Our role, the role of dozens of other countries around the world that are supporting them, is to help them do that. And ultimately, what we all want is an end to this Russian aggression and an end to the aggression that, again, is just and is durable. That’s what Ukrainians want more than anyone else. That’s what we’re working toward.”



The interview then concluded without any further follow-up from Karl. By successfully winding down the clock babbling about what Ukraine has a right to do, Blinken avoided discussing the real issue of what the US itself is doing. Nobody disputes that Ukraine has a right to attack Russian territory; Russia is attacking Ukrainian territory, so of course Ukraine has a right to retaliate. That is not being seriously debated anywhere. What’s being debated is whether the US should be backing those attacks, because doing so could lead to nuclear war.

A year ago when Ukraine first started urging the United States to send it the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) — which has nearly four times the range of the HIMARS weapons the US has been supplying — Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova immediately responded with a warning that their use on Russian territory would make the US a direct participant in the conflict, and Russia would respond accordingly.

“If Washington decides to supply longer-range missiles to Kyiv, then it will be crossing a red line, and will become a direct party to the conflict,” Zakharova said, adding that Russia “reserves the right to defend its territory.”

As Michael Tracey noted on Twitter, Blinken was saying last year that Ukraine had provided assurances to the US that it would not use the other weapons systems the US has been supplying “against targets on Russian territory.” Going by Blinken’s current statements and the attacks we’ve been seeing from Ukraine inside the Russian Federation, this agreement appears no longer to be in place. Blinken has already previously voiced support for Ukrainian use of US-supplied weapons in Crimea, and now he’s saying the US is fine with any US-supplied weapons being used on any Russian territory.

Which means there appears to have been yet another massive escalation between nuclear superpowers, which is once again going alarmingly under-reported by the western press.


In an article published in Antiwar this past July titled “ATACMS: Be Very Afraid of This Acronym,” West Suburban Peace Coalition president Walt Zlotow wrote that this missile system “has potential to draw the US and NATO into all out war with Russia”:

ATACMS are long range US missiles that can strike up to 190 miles. Top US officials, likely including President Biden, are seriously considering giving ATACMS to Ukraine in their battle to take back all Russian gains in Ukraine, including Crimea. They can reach both Crimea and the Russian mainland.

If so used by Ukraine to attack Russia, it may be a missile too far that could ignite Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Further escalation into nuclear confrontation between Russia and the US/NATO alliance seeking Russia’s defeat becomes more likely.


The US and its allies keep providing Ukraine with more and more offensive weapons that they had previously refused to supply for fear of getting drawn into the war and provoking a nuclear conflict. Last year Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov correctly predicted that the US would wind up supplying the tanks, F-16s and ATACMS it had previously deemed too escalatory, because that had already been established as the trend from the beginning of the war.

“When I was in D.C. in November, before the invasion, and asked for Stingers, they told me it was impossible,” Reznikov told The New Yorker last year. “Now it’s possible. When I asked for 155-millimetre guns, the answer was no. HIMARS, no. HARM, no. Now all of that is a yes.” He added, “Therefore, I’m certain that tomorrow there will be tanks and ATACMS and F-16s.”


As Branko Marcetic explained earlier this year in an article for Responsible Statecraft titled “Mission Creep? How the US role in Ukraine has slowly escalated,” this continual pattern of escalation is actually incentivizing Russia to start taking aggressive action against western powers so that its warnings and red lines will cease being ignored.

“By escalating their support for Ukraine’s military, the U.S. and NATO have created an incentive structure for Moscow to take a drastic, aggressive step to show the seriousness of its own red lines,” Marcetic writes. “This would be dangerous at the best of times, but particularly so when Russian officials are making clear they increasingly view the war as one against NATO as a whole, not merely Ukraine, while threatening nuclear response to the alliance’s escalation in weapons deliveries.”

“Moscow keeps saying escalatory arms transfers are unacceptable and could mean wider war; U.S. officials say since Moscow hasn’t acted on those threats, they can freely escalate. Russia is effectively told it has to escalate to show it’s serious about lines,” Marcetic added on Twitter.

And it’s just so strange how this isn’t the main thing everyone talks about all the time. The fact that we are drawing closer and closer to nuclear conflict should dominate headlines every single day, and the subject of how to avoid planetary disaster should be the constant focus of mainstream political discourse. But it isn’t, because that would interfere with the grand chessboard maneuverings of a globe-dominating empire working to secure unipolar planetary domination by undermining disobedient nations like Russia and China.

It’s hard to think about the end of the world. It’s hard to even wrap your mind around it, much less stand staring into the harsh white light of deep contemplation about what it is and what it would mean. A lot of cognitive dissonance and discomfort comes up, and it’s easier to shift one’s attention to something easier to chew on like the presidential race.

But this is something that urgently needs to be looked at. Because the people steering our world today appear to be driving blind.

https://caitlinjohnstone.com.au/2023/09 ... -missiles/

******

Gennady Dubovoy died
September 11, 23:32

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The famous military commander Gennady Dubovoy died. Particularly memorable are his reports from 2014, which form a significant part of the historical chronicle of Donbass and the creation of the DPR. Especially the fights of the summer of 2014.

Since 2022, after the start of the Northern Military District, he has been back at the front.
According to the circumstances of death, he was hit by a car in Donetsk. The enemy iron has passed and so...

Peace to dust.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8627840.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Wed Sep 13, 2023 12:03 pm

A proxy that always demands more
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 09/13/2023

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A tremendously demanding proxy that always seems to be disappointed by those who must continuously and increasingly guarantee it the weapons and financing with which to continue the war, Ukraine continues to encounter potential enemies along the way. The last, already recurring, has been the United Nations, which, for the taste of Mijailo Podolyak, has not condemned the Russian bombings strongly enough and has refused to describe the current war in Ukraine as genocide. And most serious of all, António Guterres is trying to take steps towards resuming the Black Sea Grain Initiative, not by forcing Russia to return to the agreement without changes, but by seeking a way to achieve compliance. Russian demands. Actually,

“If you are not with Ukraine, you are with Russia and if you are not with Russia, you are with Ukraine,” Zelensky stated in an interview with The Economist published on September 11 and in which he repeats George W. Bush's argument, who raised the war against terrorism with his now famous “if you are not with us, you are against us.” Under this approach, and with a communication strategy that presents the war as a conflict between good and evil in which there is no room for neutrality of any country, Kiev demands that each State contribute with sanctions and a break with Russia and arms or ammunition for Ukraine to its war effort. In the last year and a half, Ukraine or its partners have demanded military material or ammunition not only from the countries of the former Warsaw Pact or the current NATO, but from countries such as Argentina, Brazil or Colombia, which had made it clear that they were not willing. to contribute to creating more war. kyiv and its bosses have also demanded material from African countries, more concerned about their situation and that of their people than about the war in Europe.


Any country that has refused to contribute to the Ukrainian war effort, that has preferred to remain neutral or that aspires to mediate between Kiev and Moscow in search of a diplomatic solution to the crisis - that takes into account not only Ukrainian demands but the nuances that Kiev aspires to to be erased with a stroke of a pen, like the internal aspect of the conflict - have been demonized and have been required to modify their position. The most recent comment in this regard was made by Mijailo Podolyak who, responding to the position of both countries in their refusal to openly condemn Russia for the war in the final declaration of the G20, has resorted to insults. Zelensky and Ermak's advisor stated that “China and India have weak intellects, so they are not able to analyze the consequences of their actions.” The only action that Ukraine considers Intellectually strong seems to be the shipping of war material.

With constant Ukrainian pleas to all kinds of countries - rich and poor, European and non-European, allies and opponents - it could seem that supplies to the Ukrainian Armed Forces are in danger. This is also how Volodymyr Zelensky wants to present it, who in the aforementioned interview with The Economist refers to the more than modest advances of the counteroffensive as necessary to keep morale high. That need to exploit each step forward as a strategic act has been part of the modus operandi Ukrainian since the beginning of the war. With the invaluable help of the press, each city captured by Russia has been a worthless point, while each village recovered by Ukraine was presented as a strategically key place. The tactic has not changed, although it has, as he admits The Economist , the situation. “Three months since the start of the counteroffensive, Ukraine has made only modest progress in the important southern axis of the Zaporozhye region, where it is attempting to cut off support for Ukraine as long as Western leaders repeat that a mantra will suffice. Vladimir Putin's land corridor from Russia to Ukraine. The question of how much time it will take or if there will be success in it weighs on the minds of Western leaders,” admits the British media, worried about whether this promise of

That is also the concern of Volodymyr Zelensky, who says he perceives that “this year, the atmosphere is different.” The Ukrainian president's complaint is part concern, perhaps because he is aware that the unprecedented flow of weapons and financing for a proxy war can only be politically sustainable if it is justified by real successes on the front, and part tool to pressure his partners. and allies. “I have this intuition reading them, listening to them and looking into their eyes,” Zelensky said in the interview, adding that when he or she is promised that “we will always be with you,” “I can see that he or she is not there, he or she is not with us.” .

This concern has a good part of the theatricalization that has characterized Zelensky so much since he used the character of his television series as a basis for the political communication of his pre-campaign. On his recent visit to kyiv, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced another $1 billion in military assistance for Ukraine. Less than a day later, Washington announced another 600 million. Furthermore, it is foreseeable that the precious ATACMS cruise missiles will soon be announced and sent, with which the Ukrainian press has already announced that Kiev's troops will attack the Russian rear and targets both in Crimea and in continental Russia, a foreseeable new escalation that , once again, will make the war harder.

Taking the arrival of American missiles for granted, the demanding Ukrainian proxy has not chosen to settle, but rather to demand that other allies follow the example of the United States. Using the same strategy that was already successful in the case of the Leopard tanks, announced shortly after Washington gave the green light to the shipment of Abrams tanks, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister wanted to use the visit of his German counterpart to call for order. to the most powerful country in the European Union. At the press conference alongside Annalena Baerbock, a member of what has arguably been the most belligerent European party against Russia since 2014, Dmitro Kuleba raised the issue of the Taurus missiles. Insinuating that this is practically an obligation of Germany - where, according to the press, Olaf Scholz is the only person reluctant to send them, perhaps because of the danger they pose in the hands of the main suspect of having blown up the Nord Stream. The Ukrainian minister stated that “you are going to deliver Taurus missiles to us. It's just a matter of time". Kuleba relies on the weakness of the German chancellor, who has proven susceptible to pressure to act contrary to his wishes. Hence, for Kuleba the only issue to resolve is time. “I don't understand why it should be lost,” he stated before the German minister who, despite being in favor of these deliveries, for the moment cannot go beyond the marked line.

Concerned about the limited progress on the front and nervous about the possibility that a stalemate would also slow down the supply of weapons, in his dialogue with The Economist , Zelensky issued a veiled warning that can be understood as a threat. “Reducing allied assistance to Ukraine will only prolong the war,” Zelensky said, adding that “that will create risks for the West in its own backyard. It is impossible to predict how the millions of Ukrainian refugees in European countries will react to their country being abandoned. Ukrainians have generally behaved well and are very grateful with those who have welcomed them,” commented the Ukrainian president, hiding, as is customary, the millions of Ukrainian citizens refugees in Russia. Finally, Zelensky added that “it will not be a good story for Europe if it pushes those people against the wall .” The message to continue with the current flow of weapons or face the consequences seems clear and it is to be hoped that the argument will be incorporated into the repertoire of grievances that kyiv so often repeats.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/09/13/un-pr ... more-28129

Google Translator

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Chronicle of a special military operation for September 12, 2023
September 12, 2023
American number

As before, the most fierce fighting takes place in the Orekhovsky sector . Ukrainian formations were still able to wedge between Rabotino and Verbov , trying to break through to Novopokrovka. At the moment, they are not succeeding in this, but the Ukrainian command has already deployed reserves in this direction.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not giving up attempts to occupy the islands on the Dnieper . The enemy managed to land on Pereyaslavsky (Kazatsky) island with two reconnaissance groups. They need a bridgehead on it for a further attempt to make a breakthrough to Novaya Kakhovka . In addition, Ukrainian formations are consolidating at the Antonovsky Bridge.

Almost continuous shelling of the Donetsk agglomeration continues : today in the capital of the DPR a person was killed again and several were injured. Several Ukrainian shells hit the territory of St. Ignatius Church.

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The situation on the front line and combat operations

There are no significant changes on the front line in the Starobelsky direction . In the Kupyansky sector , fighting continues near Sinkovka , Russian troops have occupied several more strong points. In addition, it became known that during the battles near Kremennaya, neo-Nazi Alexander Babak from Sumy , who had previously been a member of Azov, banned in Russia, was eliminated .


In the Soledar direction, the enemy continues to concentrate significant forces and attempt attacks on the southern flank of the Bakhmut defense . Over the past days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have concentrated their efforts on accessing the railway line at Kleshcheevka and Andreevka . Nevertheless, at the moment, Russian troops are managing to hold back the enemy’s onslaught with artillery and small arms fire. In addition, each side is actively using loitering ammunition.


In the Avdeevsky sector, the enemy continues to try to break through the Russian defenses at Opytny . And to the southwest, units of the Russian Armed Forces are attacking Ukrainian positions on the approaches to Krasnogorovka , while active support for the attackers is provided by aviation crews, striking at the manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

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In the Orekhovsky sector south of Orekhov, the assault on the positions of the Russian Armed Forces continues. After weeks of “meat” attacks, the enemy was able to advance between Rabotino and Verbov , and is now trying to make a hole in the defense to reach Novoprokopovka . But huge losses are making themselves felt. For the first time in a long time, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine brought into battle 1 detachment of the 71st Jaeger Brigade - five assault groups with lightly armored equipment and weapons were deployed to the Chubenkov beam . And units of the 71st ebr, together with the 82nd airborne brigade, have already taken part in the assault on strongholds of the Russian Armed Forces near Verbovoy, where the attack was repulsed. And the 71st brigade itself suffered its first losses.


Also, formations of the 65th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces returned to the front line and were re-equipped. And 209 people from the special forces detachment of the Special Forces of Ukraine were transferred to their subordination to storm the heights south of Rabotino. In addition, formations of the 13th brigade of the National Guard “Charter” arrived in the rear areas in Vozdvizhevka, Upper Tersa and Dolinka due to the large number of killed and wounded in the 15th brigade of the NSU, which confirms the strengthening of the group in the south. Russian units are actively engaged in counter-battery warfare and also use Lancet loitering shells in a targeted manner. One of these drones of the 45th Russian Airborne Brigade near Zapasny destroyed the Bukovel electronic warfare station.

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In the Kherson direction off the banks of the Dnieper, enemy activity does not subside. Yesterday morning, the Ukrainian Armed Forces again landed on Pereyaslavsky (Kazatsky) island with two reconnaissance groups of 131 orbs, eight people each. Moreover, this was the second attempt, since at night the DRGs on boats were unable to leave the pier due to the destruction of the position of the mortar crew in Olgovka , which was supposed to cover the DRGs. Only after the deployment of an additional 120-mm mortar and artillery fire from the 406th Regiment from Tomarino , units of the 131st reconnaissance battalion were again on Kozatsky.


To the west, the command of the tactical group "Grom" and the 126th defense brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out a rotation of advanced groups on four boats on the islands of Aleshkinsky and Alekseevsky , where observation posts are being equipped. The situation in this zone remains the same, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces are strengthening their positions on the left bank. Artillery and mortars are continuously firing at Russian territories, and yesterday an air defense crew shot down another Tekever AR3 UAV over Vinogradovo .

Shelling of rear areas and residential areas

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In the Belgorod region, Ukrainian formations shelled Dolgoye, Terebreno and Spodaryushino . In the latter, several private houses were hit and received minor damage.

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Ukrainian formations continue to shell settlements in the Donetsk agglomeration using cannon and rocket artillery. In the capital of the republic, the Kuibyshevsky, Kyiv and Kirovsky districts were under massive fire: residential buildings and infrastructure were damaged. One person was killed and at least two more were injured. Several shells hit the territory of St. Ignatius Church , which was repeatedly under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces: at the scene of the incident, a fire broke out in a utility room. In addition, a pregnant woman was injured on the highway from Yasinovataya to Gorlovka , and a man was injured in the village of Kermenchik , Volnovakha district.


Ukrainian formations continue to strike settlements in the Kherson region on the left bank of the Dnieper: Kakhovka, Cossack Camps, Dnepryany, Sagi and Podstepnoe were also under fire . In Novaya Kakhovka, the gas pipeline was damaged again - the accident has now been repaired. In addition, information was received about the injury of a fourth civilians in Aleshki as a result of yesterday’s drone strike of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Political events
About Zelensky’s threats to Europe and what is behind it?

In an interview with The Economist, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky threatened European countries with riots by refugees from Ukraine if military and financial assistance to the country was curtailed. Behind Zelensky’s very straightforward threat lies another, more important meaning. What he voiced confirms the closure of the Ukraine project .

Speaking about a possible rebellion of refugees, Zelensky exposes his own citizens as ungrateful savages who do not appreciate any help provided to them primarily by the inhabitants of Europe - after all, their taxes provide accommodation for Ukrainians. These words will accelerate the formation of a negative attitude towards refugees, which is already at a fairly low level due to the actions of Ukrainian citizens themselves in Europe. Discontent will only grow, as fatigue from the conflict increases every day, and most importantly, the standard of living of Europeans is falling.

All this will increase tension among ordinary EU citizens. If the Ukrainians’ own president says that they can rebel, then this is what Europeans should expect from the savages. In the end, everything could escalate to such a scale that Ukrainian migrants will be beaten even for gagging. At the same time, Zelensky himself only fulfilled his role and expressed what he was obliged to do. Waves of refugees will head back to where they came from, which, in the context of total mobilization, looks quite convenient for the collective West. And those who want to avoid such a fate will have to fork out , which is beneficial for Zelensky and his subordinates.

About “lost weapons” from Western supplies to the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Since the beginning of the Northeast Military District, Western countries have organized unprecedented assistance to the Kyiv regime, but it does not always reach the recipient. Previously, we wrote about arms smuggling from Ukraine in the interests of criminal organizations and national diasporas abroad. Now Ukrainian gifts have appeared in Northern Ireland.

Employees of the counter-terrorism department of the Northern Ireland police confiscated Russian military grenades from representatives of the terrorist organization “New Irish Republican Army” , which advocates the continuation of the armed struggle to unite Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland into a single state, which, according to the Belfast Telegraph , could have been brought from the front line in Ukraine. Police carried out operational operations in the cities of Derry and Strabane on September 7 and 8, as a result of which two hand grenades, a pistol, about 50 rounds of ammunition and more than a kilogram of explosives were discovered. The searches were followed by an outbreak of public unrest. Demonstrators threw improvised weapons and Molotov cocktails at the security forces. 16 police officers received injuries of varying severity.

It's comical to see how the British media present such messages in the right way. It turns out that the grenades could have been stolen from the front line, and not sold as a result of simple machinations by the Ukrainian authorities. It is difficult to estimate exactly how many weapons from the “Ukrainian front” ended up in Northern Ireland, and what this might lead to, given the recent leaks of police documents, the growing tension in the region caused by the political crisis , and the fact that the IRA is often used by vested interests to advance their interests, we can only guess.

On the possible expulsion of Ukrainian refugees from Poland

Colleagues from the channel Two Majors drew attention to an interesting grant from the US State Department. The Americans, through their embassy in Krakow , are looking for Polish media that will tell about the positive stories of refugees from Ukraine who returned from Poland to their homeland, as well as the incredible efforts of the Poles to create “partnerships with Ukrainians.” The money for promoting the necessary theses promises to be quite good, especially considering the state of the Polish economy - 50 thousand dollars. The estimated start date of the program is from October 1 to November 15 this year. But applications will only be accepted until September 15. Thus, with US money, Ukrainian refugees in Poland will begin to be mentally prepared to return home.

We have already emphasized that there are several subtleties on the part of Ukraine and Poland that make the extradition of refugees to their homeland more difficult than it might seem. However, this does not mean that deportation is impossible and, of course, on this basis there will be many people who want to make money.

Where does the fish rot according to Ukrainians?

According to the results of a survey by the Deminitives Foundation and KIIS, 77.6% of Ukrainian citizens believe that the president is personally responsible for corruption in the country. The team of Vladimir Zelensky clearly did not like these results of the opinion poll . For example, Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Fedorov saw the “hand of the Kremlin” in this study: “The results of the survey about how many Ukrainians consider the president responsible for corruption are very surprising. Looks like a targeted attack.", he wrote. It is noteworthy that literally the next day after the appearance of the inconvenient poll, Vladimir Zelensky decided to veto the bill on resuming the declaration of income of officials and deputies, according to which the register of declarations will remain closed to public access for a year.

On the investigation of the Ukrainian missile attack on Konstantinovka

Advisor to the Head of the Presidential Office, Mikhail Podolyak, made an important statement about the recent missile attack on Konstantinovka - there will be no investigation into this attack, since Ukraine is sure (!) that it was a Russian missile. Let us remind you that earlier even a columnist for the German BILD Julian Röpke , as well as the Conflict Intelligence Team , stated that the missile was most likely Ukrainian and flew to Konstantinovka from the northwestern section controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

On possible legal proceedings against Ukraine in the WTO

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmygal , following Zelensky, said that Ukraine may file a claim with the WTO if Eastern European countries extend the ban on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products. “In the event of a violation of trade law in the interests of pre-election political populism, Ukraine will be forced to apply to WTO arbitration regarding compensation for damages for violation of GATT norms ,” Shmygal said.
Most likely, it was primarily about Poland . Previously, the ruling party of this country was Law and Justice.published a pre-election video in which she promised to prevent the import of Ukrainian agricultural products into the country. It is noteworthy that against the backdrop of these statements, farmers in neighboring Romania are demanding an extension of the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain in their country. Otherwise, they are ready to block Romanian ports and customs.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

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About the situation in the Rabotino area
September 12, 18:16

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Military correspondent Alexander Kharchenko on the situation in the Rabotino area.

About the situation in the Rabotino area

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[i[I haven't written for a long time. For a number of reasons beyond our control, I was not at the front for a certain amount of time. We just returned from Verbovoy and from near Rabotino.

I want to immediately praise Russian gunsmiths. OFABs with UMPC became frequent guests on the front line. It feels like at least 8 such gifts per day land in the vicinity of Rabotino. You hear a familiar rustling in the sky and feel a little more confident.

There are hundreds of burnt armored vehicles around. And if in May I thought that the Ukrainian counter-offensive would resemble the “Kursk Bulge”, then upon closer examination I realized that we were facing the First World War, where instead of cold horses, the skeletons of armored cars were scattered around the area. The West relied on a breakthrough of armored fists, but, firstly, the Russian defense was already prepared and, secondly, FPV drones appeared on the battlefield, which Western generals did not take into account.

Why did armor lose its importance? A simple example that happened yesterday on the battlefield. As soon as Bradley approaches Rabotino, drones immediately begin to guide him. Dozens of people immediately run to ATGMs and FPV drone controls. Everyone wants a valuable trophy. As a result, having just entered a populated area, the American armor immediately gets hit in the face by a drone (dynamic protection is activated), and the driver quickly drives back, shooting off smoke. The evacuation mission was disrupted.

Despite all the criticism, Surovikin’s line still fulfills its purpose. Yes, the Ukrainians reached it in the Verbovoye area, but they stormed it on foot. The armored vehicles never broke through, which means that even after the loss of the first lines, the “dragon’s teeth” still perform their function.

As armored vehicles became a supporting element on the battlefield, infantry, artillery, drones and electronic warfare came to the fore. Whoever assembles the correct structure in this square will gain an advantage on the battlefield in the near future.

The Ukrainians and their handlers realized that we were now facing a trench-infantry war, and therefore they were increasingly using cluster munitions. According to my feelings, two cluster ammunition are now used for each high-explosive fragmentation ammunition. The yellow blockades are rushing towards Novoprokopovka. As a result, their progress looks like this: they iron out the trenches with artillery for several days, during which time they accumulate in small groups in the basements of Rabotino. At the appointed hour they run to the assault on foot. If the assault on the next supporter fails, everything is repeated again and so on until the landing is wiped off the face of the earth.

This is the current situation on the front line. Later I will write about a couple more interesting points.[/i]

(c) Alexander Kharchenko

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We spent several days in the vicinity of Rabotino and Verbovoy in Zaporozhye.

From observations. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to take care of the equipment - fortunately, the Russian Armed Forces burned it here before - they use it only for transporting infantry and evacuating the wounded. Their infantry movements occur in small groups, and not even 5-15 people, but in twos or threes.

The artillery is not silent on both sides. Every 5-10 minutes the characteristic explosions of cluster munitions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are heard. In the vicinity of Verbovoy and Rabotino there is high activity of fpv drones. Both we and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are watching each other’s every move. Therefore, movements are minimal.

The battles in Zaporozhye for the Ukrainian Armed Forces dragged on for a long time, which is beneficial for the Russian side. So far, everything we have seen looks like their next preparation to attack, but the Ukrainians don’t have much time left.

(c) Sergey Shilov

Below, photographs from the NATO situation center, which coordinates the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Zaporozhye direction, including Rabotino.

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The results of NATO leadership in the Rabotino region are especially clear.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8629608.html

Google Translator

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With depleted uranium, nuclear war is underway in Europe

Nato war crimes in Donbass don’t stop at DU; Donbass civilians are routinely targeted by cluster bombs and petal mines.
Steve Sweeney

Tuesday 12 September 2023

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In May this year, a warehouse containing depleted uranium rounds that had recently arrived from Britain was blown up. As the resulting radiation cloud blew westward over Poland, radiation monitoring stations were immediately closed down. Nevertheless, experts predict that the long-term effects from the radioactive dust will be felt for decades in Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics, Hungary and Germany, potentially reaching as far as Britain and delivering genetic damage and death such as was seen in Yugoslavia and Iraq – cancer, birth defects, miscarriage, infertility, lung damage and mental problems (Gulf War Syndrome).

The following article is written by CPGB-ML member and RT reporter Steve Sweeney, currently reporting on elections in Donbass.

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Soon after war-hungry US secretary of state Antony Blinken arrived on a surprise visit to Ukraine earlier this week, the ink dried on Washington’s latest military aid package.

Included in the bumper $1bn deal are the armour-piercing depleted uranium shells whose use Russia has described as inhumane and “a criminal act” due to their long-term impact on people and the environment.

The 120mm rounds will be used to arm the 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks that the USA plans to deliver later this year, after promising them last year under pressure from European allies.

Washington’s assurances that Ukraine will use the depleted uranium shells “responsibly” are unlikely to be met, given that Kiev’s forces have repeatedly fired banned cluster munitions and petal mines into civilian areas of Donbass.

When Britain announced it was sending depleted uranium as part of the Challenger 2 tank package in March, Russia responded by deploying nuclear missiles in neighbouring Belarus. Moscow warned at the time that the use of depleted uranium on the battlefield would be considered a “dirty bomb” and elicit a tough response.

The resort to depleted uranium is not only controversial but also a sign of desperation. It is no surprise to see the USA finally agreeing to send the shells to its proxies in Ukraine as their much-vaunted ‘counteroffensive’ flounders.

The decision to send DU rounds comes soon after the equally controversial decision to supply cluster munitions. This, while provoking criticism from a number of Nato allies, was actually a tacit admission that the USA is running out of regular ammunition.

Covering up the truth about depleted uranium
Previously unheard of beyond locals and the diaspora, the Iraqi town of Fallujah has become synonymous with the deadly effects of depleted uranium, which was used on the civilian population there during the US-led invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq.

Some 20 years later and locals are still suffering the consequences with a rise in cancer rates, miscarriages and birth defects.

But there has been a concerted effort at a cover-up, despite – or perhaps because – a 2010 study showed results of sickness from exposure that were worse than for survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs.

The results of the study Cancer, Infant Mortality and Birth Sex-Ratio in Fallujah, Iraq 2005-2009 were shocking. It found that infant mortality rates had shot up to 80 per 1,000 births as compared with 19 in Egypt, 17 in Jordan and 9.7 in Kuwait.

The types of cancer – including a 38-fold increase in leukaemia and a ten-fold increase in female breast cancer – were “similar to that in the Hiroshima survivors who were exposed to ionising radiation from the bomb and uranium from the fallout”.

I spoke to survivors of the 2004 attack in March this year and they told me that even now babies are being born with twisted or missing limbs. One woman said she had had two miscarriages and the two of her surviving children I met were both born with deformities.

Medics confirmed that there was indeed a causal link between the rise in cancers and birth abnormalities and depleted uranium, but they were reluctant to come on record, saying they faced pressure against speaking out from the USA.

Nato, too, has used the deadly munition. The military alliance admitted to dropping at least 31,000 uranium missiles (10 tons) during the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999. More than 300 Italian soldiers died from exposure to the material.

Serbia became the cancer capital of Europe after the attack, with thousands of civilians affected, and the water, soil and natural environment poisoned by the toxic munition.

According to the President of the Serbian Society for the Fight against Cancer, oncologist Slobodan Cikaric, depleted uranium has a half-life of 4.5 billion years and continues to cause cancer years after the Nato bombing.

Nuclear war is already being fought by the west
Experts say that depleted uranium poses a major global threat. One academic study described it as “the Trojan horse of nuclear war”, with one paragraph of its report saying:

“The use of depleted uranium weaponry, defying all international treaties, will slowly annihilate all species on earth including the human species, and yet the United States continues to do so with full knowledge of its destructive potential.” (Depleted Uranium: the Trojan horse of nuclear war by Leuren Moret, World Affairs, April 2004)

Radioactive contamination of soil is already underway in Ukraine, with a substantial surge reported in the Khmelnitsky region in May. The rise from 80 nanosieverts to 140-160 nanosieverts is likely a result of the explosion of depleted uranium munitions in a storage factory.

And of course, while the USA and Britain supply this horrendously toxic munition, it will be Ukrainians who suffer the long-term effects when it is used on their land.

It is perhaps unsurprising that Washington, along with France and Britain, have led opposition not only to calls for a ban on the use of depleted uranium on the battlefield, but even to the demand for a moratorium that would allow for research on the long-term impact of its use.

Despite all the evidence, the USA denies a causal link to cancers and birth defects, while Britain has laughably claimed that the shells from depleted uranium do not have higher levels of radioactivity than that of household appliances.

To admit otherwise would leave them open to war crimes charges. But the World Health Organisation (WHO) has raised its concerns over depleted uranium. In a paper, it said that “someone who inhales small, insoluble uranium particles may experience lung damage or lung cancer due to radiation. Depleted uranium may also lead to poor kidney functioning.”

A number of medical experts claim the WHO has been pressured into suppressing evidence into the effects of depleted uranium, adding fuel to claims of a cover-up. There has certainly been a reluctance to carry out any serious research, something the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) has called on the British government to fund instead of sending depleted uranium to Ukraine.

But neither Britain nor Washington have any scruples, it seems, as they resort to increasingly desperate measures in their proxy war against Russia.

Drone strikes on civilian areas in Moscow and other parts of Russian territory are hardly likely to affect a population that endured the sieges of Leningrad and Stalingrad. Likewise, the people of Donbass have shown incredible resilience despite being bombed on a daily basis by Ukrainian forces for the past nine years.

Cluster munitions and other war crimes
In a bid to break their will, the United States agreed to send cluster bombs for Ukraine to use against the civilian population. The move proved controversial, with some of the 120 countries that have signed an international treaty banning cluster munitions raising concerns.

United Nations spokesman Stefan Dujarric heard reports that Kiev had targeted civilian areas with the banned bombs soon after the US announcement, saying they “should be consigned to the dustbin of history and should not be used”.

The following day, cluster munitions claimed their first victim since Washington’s announcement: Rostislav Zhuravlev, a communist journalist working for RIA Novosti in the Zaporozhye region. The reporter was travelling with a group of journalists who had been investigating the use of cluster munitions when their car came under fire from Ukrainian forces.

The killing was immediately denounced as a war crime by Russia, which held Washington responsible for what it described as “a heinous and premeditated crime”.

But the National Union of Journalists of Ukraine (NUJU) hit out at statements from the International Federation of Journalists and Unesco calling for an international probe. Instead it celebrated Zhuravlev’s death as marking “the demise of a Russian propagandist in the service of the Kremlin”.

This is all the more chilling as a journalist working in Donbass. Under the Geneva convention, media workers have civilian status and to deliberately target them is internationally recognised as a war crime. But Ukraine, Britain, the USA and their allies care very little for international treaties, not only ignoring but actively facilitating the war crimes carried out on the people of Donbass – including the use of cluster munitions.

Ukraine forces began using cluster bombs on the people of Donetsk soon after fighting broke out in 2014. As battle continues, the Cluster Munitions Coalition says people are being killed and wounded by cluster bombs at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. According to their research, 2022 was the deadliest year on record globally.

Since the US announcement, however, cluster bombs are being used far more frequently. I heard five rounds of cluster munitions in the space of ten minutes while writing this article in Donetsk.

But these weapons are not being used against military targets; they are being fired at civilians – at their homes, their shopping centres and their workplaces. Even a simple task such as collecting groceries has become a dangerous activity for the people of Donetsk.

In early August, the Donetsk University of Economics and Trade was destroyed by cluster munitions, while residential areas were also struck.

I spoke to eyewitnesses on the scene while the building was burning who said they knew immediately that the deadly bombs had been used, with the sound of explosions close together. One family said their son was screaming and they tried to shelter in the hallway, with no basement to hide in for safety.

A day later, I returned to the scene and found that the roof had caved in, while the floor of the university was flooded under inches of water. Exhausted firefighters were on the ground, having collapsed after spending the whole night tackling the blaze.

Cluster munitions are designed for maximum impact. They open up in mid-air and spread scores or hundreds of submunitions over a wide area, killing or seriously wounding most in the impact zone. But not all of them explode on impact, and they can lay dormant for years.

These unexploded bombs are often found by children, who mistake them for toys. Washington used the munition to deadly effect during the Vietnam war, leaving tens of millions of unexploded bomblets.

People in Laos are still being killed as a result of the bombs dropped on their country decades ago ¬– and this is now the reality facing the people of Donbass.

Petal mines threaten children in particular
But it is not only depleted uranium and cluster munitions that the population of Donetsk need to worry about, since Ukraine has also been firing the banned Lepostok ‘petal mines’ into civilian areas for some time now.

Last month, an 80-year-old woman became the latest victim of these innocuous-looking explosives after scores of them were fired into a civilian area in the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk city. According to local officials, more than 120 civilians have been wounded as a result of petal mines, 11 of them children, with three succumbing to their injuries.

The petal mine – also known as the PFM-1 – is a Soviet-era small plastic blast mine that was banned under the Ottawa convention, which became an internationally binding law on 1 March 1999. Their use is also considered a war crime under the Geneva convention.

It is similar to the BLU-43 that was used by the United States in Laos during the Vietnam war, with military officials suggesting the PMF-1 was developed after reverse-engineering by the Soviet Union.

Most states destroyed their stockpiles after ratifying the Ottawa convention. However, Ukraine asked for numerous extensions to the deadline. In 2020, Ukraine refused to destroy any more of its deadly arsenal, and in 2021, its stockpile was reported to be more than 3.3 million mines.

Petal mines fall silently and can be dispersed over a wide area. Their green colour and small size make them difficult to see, and their shape resembles a toy, making children particularly vulnerable.

Signs are posted in Donetsk supermarkets warning people to take care, with a cigarette lighter posted next to a photograph of a mine for scale. But despite demining efforts, hundreds are believed to be scattered across the city, and locals are constantly reminded to remain vigilant and to avoid walking on grass as much as possible.

In recent weeks, authorities released an interactive map to help local residents identify areas where petal mines are believed to have been fired in order to take extra care.

Standing with Ukraine?
Meanwhile, news comes to us of the pro-war resolution proposed by the GMB to the forthcoming TUC congress in Britain. Topping this self-declared ‘solidarity’ resolution’s list of demands are:

“1. the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces from all Ukrainian territories occupied since 2014 [ie, from Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson, all of which have voted to rejoin Russia, and some of which have fought and sacrificed much to reject the imposition of the fascist rule by the Kiev junta];

“2. the continuation and increasing of moral, material, and military aid from the UK to Ukraine.” (Our emphasis)

The people of Donbass deserve better than this despicable pro-imperialist resolution cooked up by the so-called Ukraine Solidarity Campaign, which is in reality no more than a front for the toxic Trotskyite agents of the Alliance for Workers Liberty (AWL).

This warmongering motion is one of the most dangerous and reactionary to be debated at a TUC conference for decades. It would effectively see trade unionists calling for the killing of their brothers and sisters and urging British and American imperialists to keep sending weapons to be used against workers and civilians.

We encourage our readers to read the full text of this warmongering resolution, which tries to camouflage its true import by throwing in inapplicable references to the Spanish civil war, to workers’ rights and to peace. But we must not be fooled by such weasel words and attempts to turn reality on its head.

The AWL and its friends in the trade union movement are deceiving workers and trade unionists, they are amplifying western media lies about Russia and Belarus and masking the truth in the service of imperialism – as they always do.

Workers and trade unionists in Donbass do not support this motion, and they are stunned that their counterparts in Britain could be lining up to back their killers.

The ‘solidarity’ of fools is no solidarity at all.

Stand with the people of Donbass and oppose this motion.

https://thecommunists.org/2023/09/12/ne ... in-europe/

******

Nazis, the CIA and the Post-Russian Forum of Free Nations
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on SEPTEMBER 12, 2023
Thierry Meyssan

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The Post-Russian Forum of Free Nations intends to dismantle the Russian Federation into 41 independent states.

This Post-Russia Forum of Free Nations was created by the CIA in response to Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine. In a year and a half, it has already met 7 times, in Poland, the Czech Republic, the USA, Sweden and the European and Japanese Parliaments.

In the 19th century, the German and Austro-Hungarian Empires planned to destroy their rival, the Russian Empire. To this end, the German and Austro-Hungarian foreign ministries launched a joint secret operation: the creation of the League of Allogenic Peoples of Russia (Liga der Fremdvölker Rußlands – LFR) [1].

In 1943, the Third Reich created the Anti-Bolshevik Bloc of Nations (ABN) to break up the Soviet Union. At the end of the Second World War, the United Kingdom and the United States took back the Nazis and their collaborators and maintained the ABN [2]. However, in view of the millions of deaths it had caused, Frank Wisner, the CIA’s Number 2, rewrote its history. He printed a number of booklets claiming that the ABN had been created at the Liberation. He claimed that the peoples of Central Europe and the Baltic had all, collectively, fought against both the Nazis and the Soviets. This is an enormous lie. In reality, many Central European political parties sided with the Nazis against the Soviets, forming SS divisions and providing almost all the guards for Nazi extermination camps.

John Loftus, Special Prosecutor for the Office of Special Investigations, a unit of the U.S. Department of Justice, testified that in 1980 he found a small town in New Jersey, South River, to be home to a colony of former Byelorussian SS. At the entrance to the town, a war memorial, adorned with SS symbols, celebrated their fallen comrades, while a separate cemetery housed the grave of Belarusian Nazi Prime Minister Radoslav Ostrovski [3].

It is often believed that the United States fought the Nazis and tried them at Nuremberg and Tokyo. But this is not true. If President Roosevelt was a staunch liberal, he thought it possible to recruit traitors and put them to work for him. However, as he died before the end of the conflict, the criminals he surrounded himself with rose to the highest offices. They hijacked certain administrations to further their aims. This is what happened with the CIA.

The efforts of Congress with the Church Commission, which revealed the CIA’s crimes in the 50s and 60s, were to no avail. The whole opaque world went back underground, but did not cease its activities.

The Ukrainian “integral nationalists” of Dmytro Dontsov and his henchmen Stepan Bandera and Yaroslav Stetsko followed this path. The former, who was already a secret agent for Kaiser Wilhelm II and later for Führer Adolf Hitler, was picked up by the CIA, lived in Canada and died in 1973 in South River, New Jersey, contrary to his Wikipedia entry. He was one of the Reich’s worst mass criminals. He disappeared from the Ukraine during the war and became administrator of the Reinard Heydrich Institute in Prague. He was one of the architects of the Final Solution of the Gypsy and Jewish question [4].

His henchmen, Stepan Bandera and Yaroslav Stetsko, were hired by the CIA in Munich. They provided Ukrainian-language broadcasts for Radio Free Europe and organized sabotage operations in the Soviet Union. Stepan Bandera had perpetrated numerous massacres and proclaimed Ukrainian independence with the Nazis. However, he too had disappeared from Ukraine during the war. He claimed to have been imprisoned in “honourable captivity” in an extermination camp. This is unlikely, since he resurfaced in 1944 and was entrusted by the Reich to govern the Ukraine and fight the Soviets. It is possible that he lived at the camp administration headquarters in Oranienburg-Sachsenhausen, where he worked on the Nazi project to exterminate the “races” that were supposed to corrupt the Aryans. During the Cold War, he roamed the “free world” and came to Canada to propose to Dmytro Dontsov that he become the head of his organization [5].

Time passed, these mass criminals died without ever having been held to account. Their organizations, the OUN and ABN, should also have disappeared. They did not. The OUN was reconstituted during the war in Ukraine. So has the ABN. It now has a website. Here you can read post-war propaganda booklets claiming that the organization never existed before the fall of the Reich. The ABN continues today with the “Free Nations PostRussia Forum”, to be held on September 26-27-28 in London, Paris and possibly Strasbourg. Its aim remains the same: to break up the Russian Federation into 41 separate states. There can be no doubt as to the origins of this forum: while it claims to speak for the peoples of Russia, it not only accuses Moscow, but also attacks the People’s Republic of China, North Korea and Iran. Its documents also touch on Venezuela, Belarus and Syria. However, the ABN participated in the creation and animation of the World Anti-Communist League [6], where most of the world’s dictators met, now elegantly named the World League for Freedom and Democracy.

This Post-Russia Forum of Free Nations was created by the CIA in response to Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine. In a year and a half, it has already met 7 times, in Poland, the Czech Republic, the USA, Sweden and the European and Japanese Parliaments. At the same time, the CIA has created governments-in-exile for Belarus and Tatarstan, just as it did for Iraq and Syria. No one has yet recognized them, but the European Union has already received them with deference. These governments-in-exile are in addition to the long-standing government-in-exile in Itchkeria (Chechnya).

The current system is not designed to achieve its stated aim. The United States has no intention of breaking up the Russian Federation, a nuclear power. Most of their leaders are aware that such an event would completely destabilize international relations and could trigger a Nuclear War. No, it’s more a question of mobilizing people in the service of the United States who hope to achieve the improbable goal of dissecting Russia.

A number of political personalities play this game. Such is the case of the former Polish Foreign Minister, Anna Fotyga. In 2016, she presented the European Parliament with a resolution on the European Union’s strategic communications. She had devised a system for influencing all the Union’s major media outlets, which proved effective. Or a French centrist MP, Frederick Petit. Back in 2014, his party’s poster boys (François Bayrou and Mireille de Sarnez) went to Kiev’s Maïdan Square to be photographed alongside the “integral nationalists”. I won’t even mention former Russian MP Ilya Ponomarev.

Think-tanks too, like the Jamestown Foundation. It was founded with the help of CIA director William J. Casey, on the occasion of a high-profile defector from the USSR. It was banned in Russia in 2020 (i.e., before the war in Ukraine), because it was already printing material on the break-up of Russia. Finally, the Hudson Institute is funded by Taiwan through its agency, the World League for Freedom and Democracy (formerly the World Anti-Communist League). This enabled it to host a session of the Post-Russia Forum of Free Nations.

Translation by Roger Lagassé

References

[1] Liga der Fremdvölker Russlands 1916–1918. Ein Beitrag zu Deutschlands antirussischem Propagandakrieg unter den Fremdvölkern Russlands im Ersten Weltkrieg, Seppo Zetterberg, Akateeminen Kirjakauppa (1978).

[2] MI6, Inside the Covert World of Her Majesty’s Secret Intelligence Service, Stephen Dorril, The Free Press (2000).

[3] The Belarus Secret: The Nazi Connection in America, John Loftus, Albert Knopf (1982).

[4] Ukrainian Nationalism in the Age of Extremes. An Intellectual Biography of Dmytro Dontsov, Trevor Erlacher, Harvard University Press (2021).

[5] Stepan Bandera: The Life and Afterlife of a Ukrainian Nationalist: Facism, Genocide, and Cult, Grzegorz Rossoliński-Liebe, Ibidem Press (2015).

[6] “The World Anti-Communist League: the Internationale of Crime”, by Thierry Meyssan , Translation Anoosha Boralessa, Voltaire Network, 12 May 2004.

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Wed Sep 13, 2023 8:37 pm

VOLODYMYR ISCHENKO: THE MINSK ACCORDS AND THE POLITICAL WEAKNESS OF THE “OTHER UKRAINE”
SEPTEMBER 11, 2023 NATYLIESB

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Photo by Nati on Pexels.com
By Volodymyr Ischenko, Brill, August 2023

Abstract
The article discusses the political contention around the implementation of the Minsk Accords in Ukraine, and why the pluralist nation-building project required for the success of these accords failed. The much-debated cleavage between the more ‘pro-Western’ and more ‘pro-Russian’ regions of Ukraine requires that such an alternative be taken seriously. The article argues that neither the change of the balance in favor of the pro-Western electorate in 2014, nor the rise of Ukraine’s civic identity in response to Russian aggression can adequately explain the failure to develop a positive, pluralist nation-building project in the context of Minsk. It argues instead that the profound class and political asymmetry between Ukraine’s ‘Western’ and ‘Eastern’ political camps created different capacities for the universalization of their particular interests, and for effective political mobilization for and against the Minsk Accords in the context of Euromaidan’s revolutionary dynamics.

1 The Asymmetry of the “Two Ukraines”
Typically, the discussion of the failure of the Minsk Accords and the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion begins with the assumption of a fundamental incompatibility between Ukrainian and Russian interests. In this narrative, Russia sought to reintegrate the eastern part of Donbass back into Ukraine to gain control over all of the country, to secure a ‘sphere of influence’ there, or at least prevent the stabilization of a hostile Ukrainian regime. For Ukraine, implementing the accords was irrational, as it sought to regain full sovereignty over the entirety of its internationally recognized territory. The accords suffered from commitment problems, in so far as the international guarantors – France, Germany, and, formally, Russia – were seen as part of the conflict.1 It was a zero-sum game.

In retrospect, Ukraine may have been wise not to implement the Minsk Accords. According to interviews with former German and French leaders Angela Merkel and François Hollande, the fact that France, Germany, and the United States did not push for it bought Ukraine time to strengthen its military. This in turn led to more effective resistance during the early stages of a full-scale war with Russia in 2022.2

The Kremlin, by contrast, seems to have made a critical mistake in agreeing to the Minsk Accords instead of proceeding with invasion in 2014-15 against the government established by the Euromaidan revolution. In 2022 Russia was better prepared for economic war, but Ukraine was better prepared for conventional war, and could rely on consolidated Western support.

Such a zero-sum reading of the Minsk Accords avoids questions of social construction and the contested articulation of national interest and sovereignty. For example, on the eve of the invasion, the largest Ukrainian opposition party, the Opposition Platform – For Life, advocated Ukrainian neutrality and the full implementation of the Minsk Accords. A reading of the Minsk Accords as a win-win outcome compatible with Ukrainian national interests was still possible in the Ukrainian public sphere.

Ukraine’s much-debated regional cleavage requires that alternatives to the zero-sum reading of the Minsk Accords be taken seriously. Attitudes that could be broadly described as ‘pro-Russian’ or, more precisely, skeptical of the anti-Russian and pro-Western version of Ukrainian national development, were still shared by a large part of the Ukrainian public even on the eve of the invasion. The fact that they were more widespread in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine than in the western and central regions, together with the strong regional patterns in most Ukrainian elections in the post-Soviet period, set the stage for a major debate on Ukrainian regionalism.3

One group of scholars, while disagreeing about the precise origins of the regional cleavage, i.e., on whether it was a proxy for the ethnolinguistic factors,4 a manifestation of the historically shaped and enduring political cultures,5 or the result of competing nation-building projects,6 tended to present the ‘Eastern/pro-Russian’ and ‘Western/anti-Russian’ sides of the cleavage as largely symmetrical.

An opposing group of scholars challenged this ‘East-West’ divide for concealing much more complex and fluid dynamics. From this perspective, Ukrainian regionalism does not reflect pre-existing regions, it is not a manifestation of other socio-cultural divisions, but primarily a social construction. As prominent Ukrainian historian Yaroslav Hrytsak puts it, there were not ‘two’ but ‘twenty-two Ukraines’.7 This argument is supported by the claim that, since the Euromaidan revolution in 2014, and especially since the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine has overcome its regional divisions through an inclusive civic identity.8

The failure of the Minsk Accords is a challenge for both approaches. De facto the diversity of the ‘twenty-two Ukraines’ was articulated politically in just two main political camps which, for the sake of convenience, may be called Eastern and Western. One of the camps, however, turned out to be politically weaker than the other. This cannot be explained as an automatic outcome of the changes in Ukraine’s regional balance, or through a teleological narrative that leaves no chance for the historically doomed ‘pro-Russian’ camp. Drawing on our previous work on the post-Soviet hegemony crisis and maidan revolutions,9 I will ague that political contention over the implementation of the Minsk Accords revealed the crucial class and political asymmetry of the ‘two Ukraines’.

2 Pluralist Nation-Building – the Unrealized Option
The Minsk Accords were signed after a series of Ukrainian military defeats in 2014-2015, but ultimately failed to establish a durable ceasefire. They required the reintegration of the breakaway territories in Donbass back into Ukraine with a special status, and were therefore crucial for any future pluralist national development in Ukraine, particularly with respect to the Russian-language and the legacy of Soviet Ukraine as organic elements of the Ukrainian nation- building project.10

Any prospect of reconciling the agendas of ‘Western’ and ‘Eastern’ camps was undermined by processes that began with the Euromaidan revolution, followed by Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the war in Donbass, and nationalizing and repressive trends in Ukraine since 2014. The latter included restrictive legislation on the politics of memory, language, religion, and geopolitical re-orientation, repression of Ukrainian opposition parties, closure of major opposition media, and attacks on journalists, bloggers, celebrities, and activists from the ‘East’.11 The Minsk Accords, had they been implemented, envisioned a much more politically ‘Eastern’ Donbass being recognized and becoming a legitimate part of the Ukrainian nation again.

Scholars who question Ukraine’s ‘East-West’ divide tend to legitimize rather than explain the nationalizing developments. Russia’s aggressive actions since 2014 have indeed strengthened Ukrainian civic identity, but one cannot assume that the ethnic core of Ukrainian civic nationalism would be formed based on the ‘Western’ version of Ukrainian identity.12 Before the full-scale invasion, support for the ‘Western’ agenda, and repression of the ‘East’ was often not supported by the majority of Ukrainians.13 It is also problematic to justify the repression against the ‘East’ as a necessary crackdown on the ‘fifth column’. When the decisive test of loyalty came with the Russian invasion in 2022, the overwhelming majority of politicians, members of parliament and local councils, clergy, and media from the ‘East’ condemned the invasion, despite having been labeled ‘pro-Russian’ for years.14

From the alternative perspective of the symmetrical ‘East-West’ cleavage, these nationalizing and repressive developments were, first and foremost, a direct result of the loss of the most ‘pro-Russian’ parts of Ukraine in Crimea and Donbass in 2014, which accounted for 12-16 percent of the pre-war electorate. This resulted in the ‘gerrymandering’ of Ukraine, narrowing the electoral base for political parties from the ‘East’.15 Although the Minsk Accords might have restored some of this electoral balance, by themselves they would have been far from sufficient. Attempts to promote a substantive national dialogue (not only with Donbass, but with the larger oppositional segment of Ukrainian society) were already being marginalized or even suppressed. Such was the fate of the best-known initiative, the National Platform for Reconciliation and Unity, led by Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s personal friend, the popular TV celebrity Serhii Syvokho, who briefly enjoyed the formal status of an advisor to the National Security and Defense Council. The first formal presentation of his initiative on 12 March 2020, lasted only twenty minutes, before it was disrupted by seventy far-right militants from the Azov Regiment and the National Corps Party, who violently attacked Syvokho. Instead of punishing the attackers, Syvokho was dismissed from his post.16

The full implementation of the Minsk Accords would have required a reversal of many of the post-Euromaidan developments, including a radical change in the dominant discourse within the Ukrainian public sphere about the nature and origins of the war in Donbass, a series of institutional changes that would have required at least the beginning of a process of national reconciliation, and intensive efforts to create a more inclusive and synthetic definition of national identity.17

The supporters of the Minsk Accords, however, were never able to mobilize on a sufficient scale, or articulate an ideologically attractive pluralist nation- building concept that could serve as an alternative to the nationalizing and repressive path taken since 2014. I argue that this was the result of the interaction of civil society and the political regime in the context of the Euromaidan’s revolutionary dynamics, which the ‘East’ could not counter due to the fundamental political and class asymmetry of Ukraine’s regional cleavage. First, however, let us look at the question of whether the Kremlin had an interest in implementing the Minsk Accords.

3 What the Kremlin Wanted from Minsk
The Kremlin was interested in implementing the Minsk Accords because it would have improved the Russian elite’s global, regional, and domestic positions. It would most likely have stalled Ukraine’s Western integration by partially restoring the electoral base of the pro-neutrality ‘Eastern’ parties.18 The areas of Donbass with special status could also potentially have blackmailed the central government with secession.19 Second, the implementation of Minsk would have been an important symbolic defeat for other maidan revolutions throughout the former Soviet Union, diminishing the threat that they might spread to Russia.20 Finally, the transformations implied by the Minsk Accords would have prevented Putin’s feared ‘anti-Russia’ from developing in Ukraine, leaving open the possibility of Ukraine and Russia evolving even if as two separate states – like Germany and Austria – but for ‘one and the same people’ in Putin’s nationalist vision.21 The current war to destroy Ukraine through military aggression has likely ended any such possibility for the foreseeable future.

Some argue that the gradual institutional and legislative unification with Russia22 shows that the Kremlin intended to annex Donbass long before its full-scale invasion.23 However, this may be a retrospective interpretation. As Matveeva shows, practically all the measures taken by Russia until 2020 to integrate Donbass were largely symbolic and/or reversible.24 Even allowing Donbass residents to acquire Russian citizenship through a simplified procedure was not much different from the procedures in other breakaway territories in the post-Soviet space that Russia did not annex.25 The beginning of the distribution of Russian passports could have been intended to force Ukraine to speed up the implementation of the Minsk Accords. Moreover, the number of Russian passport holders in the breakaway areas began to grow rapidly only in 2020, when Ukraine blocked border crossings with the government-controlled territory, ostensibly because of COVID, and depriving Donbass residents not only of social services, but also of the opportunity to renew their Ukrainian documents.26

Had the Kremlin aimed to annex territories beyond Crimea, it would have been much easier to do in 2014. Russia would have benefited from the post-revolutionary disarray, and the still stronger pro-Russian attitudes of the segment of the Ukrainian population that felt alienated by the Euromaidan revolution, not to mention the poor state of the Ukrainian military at the time.27 The goals that drove the decision to launch the invasion, or that emerged after the initial military assault failed, should therefore not be ascribed retrospectively without proper evidence.

Instead, in 2014, the Kremlin only prevented the defeat of the pro-Russian irredentist insurgency in Donbass, but did not support the maximalist goals of establishing ‘Novorossia’ in all of southeastern Ukraine. This later became a point of bitter criticism of Putin by some of the sidelined insurgent leaders.28 The reason for the Kremlin’s choice of this sub-optimal strategy was that its initial goal, to be achieved through the Minsk Accords, was to transform Ukraine from within by reversing the post-Euromaidan developments. This goal was revised only after the initial strategy failed. Putin probably saw the sanctions against Viktor Medvedchuk, Putin’s friend and leader of the most popular opposition party in Ukraine, and the closure of Medvechuk’s popular television channels in Ukraine as proof that no Russia-friendly political force would be allowed to join the government and implement the Minsk Accords. The first phase of the Russian military concentrating on Ukraine’s borders followed very soon thereafter.29

One can debate whether the Minsk Accords were a Trojan Horse that would have reversed pro-Western progress in Ukraine,30 but the argument that the Kremlin was never serious about implementing them has no substantial evidence behind it.

4 Minsk and the Ukrainian Nation-Building Project
On the contrary, the implementation of the Minsk Accords would undermine the ‘Western’ agenda for Ukraine, which was articulated as a zero-sum game against Russian interests. Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration would likely come to a halt. It would also be a final sign of the failure of the Euromaidan revolution, which would then be interpreted as a needless sacrifice and undermine the arguments of the opposition in Russia and other post-Soviet countries. Finally, it would preclude excluding the ‘Russian’ and ‘Soviet’ from Ukraine’s national identity. The Minsk Accords were thus a threat to the specific national project that envisioned Ukraine’s future as being the same path that Central Europe chose after 1989.

This nation-building project served specific class interests. Domestically, these were primarily the interests of the professional middle class, which was excluded from post-Soviet ‘political capitalism’ and whose life propects and political influence rested on closer integration with the West.31 Outside the westernmost regions of Galicia, the more affluent people were, the more they supported ‘Western’ agenda.32 They saw the main obstacle to their interests not only in Russia but in the Soviet legacy, interpreted as oppressive and imposed from the outside, misrecognizing and downplaying its emancipatory origins and modernizing achievements. Its degraded economic remnants, socio-political institutions, and culture were perceived as perpetuating corruption and the rule of ‘oligarchic’ political capitalists. The plebeian masses who yearned for some stability after the disaster of the post-Soviet collapse of the 1990s were portrayed as sovok – a ‘backward’ thinking homo sovieticus that lacked civic qualities and were easily manipulated by authoritarian leaders. This portrayal of a large part (if not the majority) of one’s own people as the crucial obstacle to Western-oriented ‘civilizing’ progress was not unique to Ukraine. It was shared by other middle-class opposition movements in post- Soviet countries, including Russia.33 Within Ukraine, however, it overlapped with the regional cleavage that amplified the othering of the ‘Eastern’ citizens, especially in Donbass.34 They were labeled a liability to Ukrainian nation- building, as defined by the ‘Western’ agenda.35

Insofar as the ‘Western’ Ukrainian project was about the integration of Ukraine into the periphery of the larger West, it had only a limited capacity to include those Ukrainians whose lives depended on what remained of Soviet heavy industry and trade links with Russia.36 Assimilation and coercion were to substitute for lack of appeal and negotiation over things the ‘Western’ camp believed were non-negotiable.37 The Minsk Accords envisaged the integration of Donbass on fundamentally different terms.

5 Civil Society vs. Ukrainian Society
The reason for the failure of the Minsk implementation does not lie primarily in its lack of support from Ukrainian society, but in the asymmetrical political capacity of the ‘Western’ and ‘Eastern’ camps in Ukraine. The neoliberal and nationalist agendas of ‘Western’ civil society were often not representative of Ukraine’s majority; however, they were empowered as a result of the Euromaidan deficient revolution.38 The state of public opinion and political contention following Zelenskyi’s victory in 2019, which many saw as a window of opportunity to make progress on a peace settlement in Donbass, illustrate this point.

Zelenskyi’s unprecedented and astounding electoral victory over Petro Poroshenko, who had campaigned heavily on the ‘Western’ camp’s agenda of no compromise with Russia, happened thanks to massive support by voters in the southeastern regions. In November 2019, a staggering 75 percent supported Zelenskyi’s idea of direct negotiations with Putin over Donbass, 74 percent believed that reaching a ceasefire should be one of Zelenskyi’s highest priorities, and 59 percent supported a military disengagement in Donbass.39 At the same time, however, the specific clauses of the Minsk Accords, especially calling for amnesty for combatants and the creation of a local people’s militias’, were unpopular.40 Since most Ukrainians initially supported the accords, and in March 2015, even supported a peace settlement on ‘any terms’ if a compromise could not be reached,41 it suggests that Ukrainian disappointment with the Accords in 2019 might have more to do with their inability to bringing peace to Ukraine, rather than their fundamental unacceptability.

To prevent any shift in policy, immediately after Zelenskyi’s victory, prominent politicians, public figures, and NGOs of the ‘Western’ camp drew ‘red lines’ in domestic and foreign policy that Zelenskyi could not cross. The ‘No to capitulation!’ campaign began in the fall of 2019 and was led by Poroshenko’s and the other parties that had just lost the elections, with strong participation from radical nationalists. It specifically targeted German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s proposal for a step-by-step protocol for implementing the Minsk Accords.42

The campaign eventually included explicit threats of violence against Zelenskyi and insubordination by the far-right Azov regiment, which tried to sabotage the disengagement of Ukrainian and separatist forces.43 On 9 October 2019, he met with the ‘No to capitulation!’ campaign leaders (which included not just Azov but the neo-Nazi terror group C14) to reassure them that the Steinmeier Formula would be rejected.44 Zelenskyi later mentioned that his visit to the frontlines in Donbass and meeting with Azov soldiers made him realize that the Minsk Accords could not be implemented.45

At its height, however, the ‘No to capitulation!’ campaign could rally no more than 10,000 people, even in Kiev. Even though more than two dozen local councils (mostly in western regions) passed statements condemning the Steinmeier Formula,46 only 26 percent of Ukrainians supported the protests, compared with 41 percent who opposed them.47 The ‘anti-capitulation’ camp thus represented neither Ukrainian society, nor even appealed to the majority of Zelenskyi’s own voters. 43 percent of those who would vote for him in April 2020 agreed that Zelenskyi ‘goes along with the radical part of the population’, while only five percent of Zelenskyi’s voters believed that he goes along with the ‘Kremlin’s fifth column’.48 The situation in public opinion polls was more or less symmetrical: neither the opponents of Minsk nor its supporters could claim a majority. However, in terms of capacity for street mobilization and armed threats, the balance was drastically in favor of the ‘Western’ camp. There was no significant extraparliamentary mobilization in support of implementing the Minsk Accords.

6 Zelenskyi’s Weak Populism
An active campaign by the new and initially very popular president might have compensated for this asymmetry and perhaps tipped the balance in favor of the Minsk Accords. Instead, during the months leading up to the Russian invasion, senior Ukrainian officials repatedly stated that the accords were ‘impossible’ to implement, and that any attempts to do so would lead to the ‘country’s destruction’.49 Legislation on the ‘transition period’ for these regions once de-occupied, which Zelenskyi submitted to parliament in 2021, excluded any special status for Donbass and amnesty for the combatants, and restricted political and civil rights for local residents.50 The choice of assimilation and coercion for a Donbass now perceived as a ‘security threat’, rather than the recognition of regional diversity and negotiations over a common future that were required for the success of the Minsk Accords, resulted not from a lack of popular support for the accords, or from the threat of violent destabilization, but rather from the limited capacity of Zelenskyi’s populist government to pursue an autonomous strategic vision of Ukraine’s future.

Some observers fear that implementing the Minsk Accords could lead to political destabilization, or even a civil war.51 The danger posed by radical nationalists in Ukraine’s post-Euromaidan politics has been systematically downplayed,52 despite their demonstrated willingness to take action against those they suspect of ‘capitulation’. For example, on 31 August 2015, several police officers were killed, and over a hundred other injured by a hand grenade thrown by a far-right militant outside the Ukrainian parliament, while it was debating the special status of Donbass.53

But even if progress in implementing the Minsk Accords provoked some violence, it is questionable whether the nationalists would be able to split the military and law enforcement enough to unleash a full-scale civil war (beyond the war that had already been going on in Donbass). The Russian threat remained a consolidating factor. Moreover, the more moderate wing of the ‘Western’ camp was unlikely to support such actions without the approval of the Western powers. It is telling that Arsen Avakov, Ukraine’s powerful Interior Minister until 2021, who was widely suspected of backing the Azov regiment,54 did not mention any threat of domestic violence if the Steinmeier Formula was implemented, when he spoke to a person he believed to be former US Ambassador Michael McFaul in 2022. Instead, Avakov speculated that Zelenskyi was simply afraid of losing popularity, and worried that his aides were trying to outmaneuver the Russians without having any real alternative to Minsk.55

In fact, after securing unprecedented single-party control in the Ukrainian parliament, Zelenskyi demonstrated that he was capable of pushing through highly controversial initiatives. For example, he pushed through a very unpopular land reform bill in the face of more than 70 percent public disapproval, and strong vested interests.56 Similarly, he did not revise any of the ethnonationalist policies pursued by his predecessor, and even doubled down on Poroshenko’s repression of the ‘Eastern’ camp in 2021, much to the displeasure of his ‘Eastern’ electorate.57

Unlike the Minsk Accords, however these divisive steps were supported by neoliberal- nationalist civil society, and at least tacitly sanctioned by Western powers and international institutions. This ‘sandwich’ model proved sufficient to push through post-Euromaidan reforms when neither the ruling party or the opposition were enthusiastic about challenging the interests of the ‘oligarchic’ political capitalists who continued to have a strong influence on Ukrainian politics.58 Neoliberal-nationalist civil society generated reform ideas and played the role of watchdog over their implementation by the government, while Western states and international institutions used their leverage economic and political leverage over the Ukrainian government, which had become critically dependent on the West since the Euromaidan revolution.59

This symbiosis worked best in the case of ‘anti-corruption’ and similar neoliberal reforms. Here the interests of the professional middle class, building their careers in sectors oriented to Western markets or even directly supported by Western donors, aligned with the interests of transnational capital, which benefited from the opening of markets and more transparent rules.60 For example, in the fall of 2017, the conflict between the recently created independent Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Ukrainian government escalated, and on 6 December 2017 the parliament decided to change the law to simplify the procedure for dismissing its head.61 That evening they were threatened by the US, EU, World Bank, and IMF with a reduction of financial and military aid to Ukraine, and the next morning this revision was removed from the parliament’s agenda.

The civil society of the ‘Western’ camp presented open external pressure on Ukraine’s internal affairs as being in Ukraine’s national interest, thus universalizing particular class interests. The regular interference by Joe Biden, then the Vice President of the United States, in the internal affairs of Ukraine under president Poroshenko could thus be presented as nothing ‘obviously incriminating or even particularly embarrassing’, since it was what ‘Ukrainian civil society’ demanded.62 Here again, however, civil society diverged from Ukrainian society. For example, multiple polls showed that either a majority or a plurality of Ukrainians were skeptical of this level of cooperation with the IMF, because they saw it as jeopardizing Ukraine’s sovereignty.63 In July 2020, 67 percent of Ukrainians did not believe that Ukraine was truly independent. Indeed, 43 percent said that the Ukrainian president was ‘fully dependent’ on foreign countries and international organizations, and another 41 percent described him as ‘partially dependent’. Only 4 percent believed that such foreign influence was unequivocally helpful.64

Zelenskyi’s stunning victory in 2019 is sometimes referred to as an ‘electoral maidan’,65 and indeed, it is similar in that it responded to the deep crisis of political representation without offering any well-articulated and organized alternative. This made it vulnerable to being hijacked by agents with relatively unpopular agendas, but relatively strong political capacity buttressed by external support.66 Zelenskyi thus faced the problem of many contemporary populists who benefited from the weakness of the old elites, rather than the strength of ‘new faces’.67 In addition, unlike his Western populist counterparts, he had no real party or movement of his own before 2019, and therefore lacked middle-rank people to fill crucial bureaucratic positions. Lacking a coherent political team, he relied instead on his personal network from show business, and, increasingly, technocrats and opinion leaders from ‘Western’ civil society, some of whom had previously opposed Zelenskyi.68

The erratic moves of his first term are the result. Pressures from powerful oligarchic groups, neoliberal-nationalist civil society, and Western powers resulted in contradictory initiatives, rather than a coherent strategy or meeting the expectations of his voters.69 As a result, Zelenskyi antagonized a number of powerful groups in Ukrainian politics, while becoming increasingly perceived as just another ‘oligarch’ by the population right on the eve of the invasion.70 The failure of the original Russian plan to decapitate the Ukrainian state in a quick ‘special military operation’ may have rallied most Ukrainians around the flag and provided Zelenskyi with an opportunity to consolidate power. This, however, should not be attributed retrospectively.

7 The Political Weakness of the ‘East’
The absence of any comparable mobilization and pressure in support of the Minsk Accords points to a critical asymmetry between the ‘Western’ and ‘Eastern’ camps of Ukraine’s regional cleavage. Unlike the former, the latter was led by political capitalists who made their fortunes during the Soviet collapse, and their appropriation of the selective benefits of the post-Soviet state. Their relationship to their electorate was one of patronage rather than leadership. Skilled in patronal politics,71 able to control large informal networks of parliamentary deputies, and even win national elections, their capacity to coordinate collective action, extra-parliamentary mobilization, and promote a shared ideology around particular interests remained weak.

These post-Soviet political capitalists never offered a sustainable model for growth. Even in countries where they consolidated into authoritarian regimes, such as Russia or Belarus, their main appeal was restoring stability after the disastrous 1990s. When Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions collapsed in 2014, no new overarching coordination mechanism emerged, at least for the major groups of political capitalists. This resulted in the political fragmentation of the ‘Eastern’ camp, and a diminished capacity for collective action even in defense of its own vital interests. The loss of access to the traditional ‘administrative resource’ meant an ever shrinking material base for nurturing a loyal middle class.72

One striking difference between the ‘two Ukraines’ is the weakness of the ‘Eastern’ civil society, even in comparison with the narrowly based civil society of the ‘Western’ camp.73 Instead of supporting smaller but more coherent ideological parties, universities, magazines, and intellectual networks, the money of ‘Eastern’ political capitalists went to patronage-driven electoral machines, TV stations, and loyal media pundits. This was enough to win local, and sometimes national, elections, but it was not enough to forge an attractive, broadbased, pluralist nation-building project for Ukraine that would appeal to both the Ukrainian public and the West. The ‘Western’ camp, by contrast, offered the illusion of rapid modernizating integration into Euro-Atlantic community (even if problematic), while it was not at all clear what the ‘Eastern’ camp offered beyond stagnation. It is noteworthy that the main political parties of the ‘Eastern’ camp called themselves simply ‘Opposition bloc’ and ‘Opposition platform’, defining themselves foremost in a negative way against the post-Euromaidan developments.

This affected the ability of the ‘Eastern’ camp to mobilize and put pressure on the government. Within this camp the Communist Party of Ukraine had the best capacity to do so, but it was weakened by nationalist attacks in 2014, lost its most militant sections in Crimea and Donbass, and was then disbanded and suppressed under the ‘decommunization’ laws.74 Zelenskyi’s accommodation with the ‘Western’ camp after his so inspiring victory over Poroshenko triggered the attempts to mobilize the ‘betrayed majority’, best manifested in Anatolii Sharii’s party, which was founded by one of Ukraine’s most popular bloggers. But its limited success, primarily among youth in southeastern Ukrainian cities, was probably aborted by the Russian invasion in 2022.

8 Conclusion
Neither the change of the regional balance in 2014, nor the rise of civic identity is sufficient to explain the failure of the pluralist alternative for Ukraine that was required for the success of the Minsk Accords. The profound class and political asymmetry between Ukraine’s ‘Western’ and ‘Eastern’ camps structured the political contention over the accords in the context of the post-Euromaidan developments. Like most other contemporary revolutions, the Euromaidan resulted not in the democratic consolidation of society, but rather in strengthening middle-class civil society vis-à-vis a weakened Ukrainian state, now critically dependent on Western financial, political, and military support. Within the civil society, the ‘Western’ camp was politically stronger, and got even more resources and opportunities, although its class interests and political agendas often differed from the views of the majority of Ukrainians.

A different national development for Ukraine, as a pluralistic country that could serve as a bridge between the West and Russia, was certainly possible. Getting there, however, required an institutionally protected national dialogue among Ukrainians who had sharply opposing views. Thanks to the weak ability of post-Soviet political capitalists to lead their constituency politically, intellectually, and morally, and universalize their particular interests in a pluralist nation-building project, the portion of Ukrainian society that potentially backed a non-zero-sum articulation of the Minsk accords was poorly ideologically interpellated and weakly mobilized. The full-scale invasion by Russia may cut Ukraine in two, rather than giving it a chance to sew itself together.

Since the invasion, some claimed that the regional cleavage had lost its relevance, and that perhaps, it has always been a ‘myth’.75 They base this on public opinion surveys, which are significantly less reliable and representative during wartime.76 It is just as possible, that we are seeing not so much a positive unity under the ‘Western’ camp’s leadership, but rather a temporary coalition against the momentary enemy.

Nevertheless, for the adepts of the ‘Western’ nation-building project in Ukraine, Russia’s invasion is an opportunity for a radical and uncompromising transformation of the whole country, on a scale that would have been impossible in peacetime.77 As a result, with their political and public representatives repressed, fleeing from the country, forced to become even more loyal supporters of Zelenskyi than the pro-Western parties, or some to collaborate with Russians,78 a large group of Ukrainians are now being turned into objects of assimilation. Only some of them accept the process and become its active subjects. Others are squeezed between the ‘Western’ nation-building project, and Putin’s ‘one and the same people’, even though they fit neither. Their situation is oddly reminiscent of the situation of Ukrainians in the pre-revolutionary Russian Empire, who, although not discriminated against as individuals, were prohibited from expressing their collective identity because its very existence was deemed a security threat.

These ‘Other Ukrainians’ suffer not only the brunt of the current invasion, but the suspicion of secretly harboring sympathies for the aggressor. One Ukrainian refugee artist, Anatoli Ulyanov, aptly describes them as caught between two fires:

Imagine you are a Russian-speaker in some bombed-out Eastern Ukrainian city, waiting to be liberated. Some of the ‘liberators’ will be first checking your closets for young men to mobilize and use as a Z-branded canon fodder. The other liberators make it clear that they see you аs nothing more than a ‘vatnik’, a Homo Sovieticus. All that remains for you to choose is which knife you would like to be liberated with: the good knife of the victim or the evil knife of the aggressor?79

These ‘Other Ukrainians’ never wanted war, and became its greatest victims.

1 Paul D’Anieri, “Commitment Problems and the Failure of the Minsk Process: The Second- Order Commitment Challenge,” Post-Soviet Affairs, https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2022.2158685; Dominique Arel and Jesse Driscoll, Ukraine’s Unnamed War: Before the Russian Invasion of 2022 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2023): 194.

2 Tina Hildebrandt and Giovanni di Lorenzo, “Angela Merkel: ‘Hatten Sie gedacht, ich komme mit Pferdeschwanz?’” Die Zeit, 7 December 2022, https://www.zeit.de/2022/51/angela-merk ... deskanzler (accessed 12 March 2023); Theo Prouvost, “Hollande: ‘There Will Only Be a Way Out of the Conflict When Russia Fails on the Ground’,” The Kyiv Independent, 28 December 2022, https://kyivindependent.com/national/ho ... the-ground (accessed 12 March 2023).

3 See Oksana Myshlovska and Ulrich Schmid, eds., Regionalism Without Regions: Reconceptualizing Ukraine’s Heterogeneity (Budapest: Central European University Press, 2019) for one of the most comprehensive recent reviews of the question.

4 E.g., Lowell Barrington, “Is the Regional Divide in Ukraine an Identity Divide?” Eurasian Geography and Economics 63, no. 4 (2022): 470.

5 E.g., Ivan Katchanovski, Cleft Countries: Regional Political Divisions and Cultures in Post-Soviet Ukraine and Moldova (Stuttgart: ibidem, 2006).

6 E.g., Mykola Riabchuk, “‘Two Ukraines’ Reconsidered: The End of Ukrainian Ambivalence?” Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism 15, no. 1 (2015): 138-56; Richard Sakwa, Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands (London: I.B. Tauris, 2016).

7 Yaroslav Hrytsak, “Dvadtsiat dvi Ukrainy,” Krytyka, no. 54 (2002): 3-6.

8 E.g., Olga Onuch and Henry E. Hale, The Zelenskyi Effect (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2022).

9 Volodymyr Ishchenko and Oleg Zhuravlev, “How Maidan Revolutions Reproduce and Intensify the Post-Soviet Crisis of Political Representation,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, no. 714, 18 October 2021, https://www.ponarseurasia.org/how-maida ... sentation/ (accessed 12 March 2023); Volodymyr Ishchenko and Oleg Zhuravlev, “Post-Soviet vicious circle: revolution as a reproduction of the crisis of hegemony,” in Dylan J. Riley and Marco Santoro eds., The Anthem Companion to Gramsci (London: Anthem Press, forthcoming).

10 Here, I draw on Richard Sakwa’s definition of the “monist” and “pluralist” nation-building projects in Ukraine. See Sakwa, Frontline Ukraine.

11 Volodymyr Ishchenko, “Nationalist Radicalization Trends in Post-Euromaidan Ukraine,” PONARS Eurasia Policy memo, no. 529, 17 May 2018, http://www.ponarseurasia.org/memo/natio ... an-ukraine (accessed 12 March 2023); Volodymyr Chemerys, “Totalitarian Tendencies in Post-Maidan Ukraine,” openDemocracy, 26 October 2016, https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/to ... n-ukraine/ (accessed 12 March 2023); Lucan A. Way, “Ukraine’s Post-Maidan Struggles: Free Speech in a Time of War,” Journal of Democracy 30, no. 3 (2019): 48-60; Georgiy Kasianov, “Ukraina Kak ‘Natsionaliziruiushchee(sia) Gosudarstvo’: Obzor Praktik i Rezultatov,” Sotsiologiia vlasti 33, no. 2 (2021): 117-145.

12 Oleg Zhuravlev and Volodymyr Ishchenko, “Exclusiveness of Civic Nationalism: Euromaidan Eventful Nationalism in Ukraine,” Post-Soviet Affairs 36, no. 3 (2020): 226-45 provides an extensive criticism of quite a popular but flawed counterposing of the ethnic and civic nationalisms in post-Euromaidan Ukraine.

13 Volodymyr Ishchenko, “NATO through Ukrainian Eyes,” in Grey Anderson ed., Natopolitanism: The Atlantic Alliance since the Cold War (London: Verso, forthcoming); Ishchenko, “Nationalist Radicalization Trends;” Zhuravlev and Ishchenko, “Exclusiveness of Civic Nationalism”: 231-33; Kasianov, “Ukraina Kak ‘Natsionaliziruiushchee(sia) Gosudarstvo’”: 134-35; Zhurzhenko, “Fighting Empire, Weaponising Culture: The Conflict with Russia and the Restrictions on Russian Mass Culture in Post-Maidan Ukraine,” Europe-Asia Studies 73, no. 8 (2021): 1459; Henry E. Hale and Volodymyr Kulyk, “Aspirational Identity Politics and Support for Radical Reform: The Case of Post-Maidan Ukraine,” Comparative Politics 53, no. 4 (2021): 713-751.

14 Volodymyr Ishchenko, “Why did Ukraine suspend 11 ‘pro-Russia’ parties?” Al Jazeera, 12 March 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022 ... ia-parties (accessed 12 March 2023); Igor Burdyga, “These are the men Russia wanted to put in charge of Ukraine,” openDemocracy, 4 March 2023, https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/uk ... huk-boiko/ (accessed 12 March 2023).

15 Paul D’Anieri, “Gerrymandering Ukraine? Electoral Consequences of Occupation,” East European Politics and Societies 33, no. 1: 89-108.

16 Nicolai N. Petro, The Tragedy of Ukraine: What Classical Greek Tragedy Can Teach Us About Conflict Resolution (Berlin: De Gruyter, 2023): 241-42.

17 Jesse Driscoll, “Ukraine’s Civil War: Would Accepting This Terminology Help Resolve the Conflict?” PONARS Eurasia Policy memo, no. 572, 6 February 2019, https://www.ponarseurasia.org/ukraine-s ... -conflict/ (accessed 12 March 2023); Petro, The Tragedy of Ukraine.

18 Paul D’Anieri, “Ukraine’s 2019 Elections: Pro-Russian Parties and The Impact of Occupation,” Europe-Asia Studies 74, no. 10: 1915-1936.

19 Volodymyr Ishchenko, “Three scenarios for the Ukraine-Russia crisis,” Al Jazeera, 16 February 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022 ... its-future (accessed 14 March 2023).

20 Volodymyr Ishchenko, “Behind Russia’s War Is Thirty Years of Post-Soviet Class Conflict,” Jacobin, 3 October 2022, https://jacobin.com/2022/10/russia-ukra ... s-conflict (accessed 12 March 2023); Ishchenko and Zhuravlev, “How Maidan Revolutions.”

21 Vladimir Putin, “Ob istoricheskom yedinstve russkikh i ukraintsev,” Prezident Rossii, 12 July 2021, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66182 (accessed 13 March 2023).

22 Natalia Savelieva, “Eight Years of War Before the War,” Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung, 25 March 2022, https://www.rosalux.de/en/news/id/46205 ... re-the-war (accessed 13 March 2023).

23 Volodymyr Artiukh and Taras Fedirko, “No, the West Didn’t Halt Ukraine’s Peace Talks With Russia,” Novara Media, 17 October 2022, https://novaramedia.com/2022/10/17/no-t ... th-russia/ (accessed 13 March 2023).

24 Anna Matveeva, “Donbas: The Post-Soviet Conflict That Changed Europe,” European Politics and Society 23, no. 3 (2022): 410-41.

25 Ihor Hurak and Paul D’Anieri, “The Evolution of Russian Political Tactics in Ukraine,” Problems of Post-Communism 69, no. 2 (2022): 124-125.

26 Matveeva, “Donbass”: 427.

27 The original plan for Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 was fundamentally premised on the destabilization of the Ukrainian central government, which would ensure stronger local collaboration and weaker military resistance, see J. Watling, O.V. Danylyuk, and N. Reynolds, “Preliminary Lessons from Russia’s Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War, February 2022–February 2023,” Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies Special Report, 29 March 2023, https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... ruary-2022 (accessed 29 March 2023). Generals are always prepared to fight the last war.

28 Shaun Walker, “Russia’s ‘valiant hero’ in Ukraine turns his fire on Vladimir Putin,” The Guardian, 5 June 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/ ... imir-putin (accessed 18 March 2023).

29 Simon Shuster, “The Untold Story of the Ukraine Crisis,” Time, 2 February 2022, https://time.com/magazine/europe/614469 ... -5-europe/ (accessed 13 March 2023).

30 Adam Potočňák and Miroslav Mares, “Donbas Conflict: How Russia’s Trojan Horse Failed and Forced Moscow to Alter Its Strategy,” Problems of Post-Communism (2022), https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2022.2066005.

31 Ishchenko, “Behind Russia’s War.” The term “political capitalists” is understood as “the fraction of the capitalist class whose main competitive advantage is derived from selective benefits from the state, unlike capitalists whose advantage is rooted in technological innovations or a particularly cheap labor force.” For a similar use, see, e.g., Iván Szelényi and Péter Mihályi, Varieties of Post-communist Capitalism: A comparative analysis of Russia, Eastern Europe and China (Leiden: Brill, 2019).

32 Hale and Kulyk, “Aspirational Identity Politics”; Mikhail Alexseev, “U.S. Foreign Policy: What Wins Hearts and Minds in Ukraine?” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, no. 716, 25 October 2021, https://www.ponarseurasia.org/u-s-forei ... ins-hearts -and-minds-in-ukraine/ (accessed 15 March 2023).

33 Olga Baysha, Miscommunicating Social Change: Lessons from Russia and Ukraine (Lanham: Lexington Books, 2018).

34 Zhuravlev and Ishchenko, “Exclusiveness of civic nationalism.”

35 For an extensive collection of post-Euromaidan officials’ statements tagetting the “wrong” Ukrainians, see Petro, The Tragedy of Ukraine: 116-18.

36 For economic interests behind the war in Donbass, see, e.g., Yuri M. Zhukov, “Trading hard hats for combat helmets: The economics of rebellion in eastern Ukraine,” Journal of Comparative Economics 44, no. 1 (2016): 1-15.

37 Petro, The Tragedy of Ukraine: 111-12, 245-46.

38 Ishchenko and Zhuravlev, “How Maidan revolutions.” This is a typical outcome of contemporary urban civic revolutions, see Mark R. Beissinger, The revolutionary city: urbanization and the global transformation of rebellion (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2022): 359-416.

39 “Hromadska dumka: lystopad-2019,” Democratic Initiatives Foundation, 25 November 2019, https://dif.org.ua/article/gromadska-du ... topad-2019 (accessed 16 March 2023).

40 “Vid Paryzha Do Zhenevy: Yak Zminylas Dumka Ukraintsiv Pro Rosiisko-Ukrainsku Viinu Za Dva Roky Prezydentstva Zelenskoho,” Democratic Initiatives Foundation, 2021, https://dif.org.ua/uploads/pdf/17272705 ... 490916.pdf (accessed 16 March 2023).

41 “Sotsialno-Politychna Sytuatsiia v Ukraini” (Kiev International Institute of Sociology, March 2015), https://kiis.com.ua/materials/pr/201526 ... 0_Results3 .pdf; “Sotsialno-Politychna Sytuatsiia v Ukraini: Lypen 2015 Roku,” Kiev International Institute of Sociology, July 20, 2015, https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=r ... 540&page=1. (accessed 16 March 2023).

42 “Ukrainian Civil Society Outlines ‘Red Lines’ President Zelenskyi Can’t Cross,” Euromaidan Press, 23 May 2019, https://euromaidanpress.com/2019/05/23/ ... ant-cross/ (accessed 16 March 2023).

43 Moss Robeson, “Bandera’s ‘Insurgency-in-Waiting’,” Bandera Lobby Blog, 8 December 2022, https://banderalobby.substack.com/p/ban ... in-waiting (accessed 16 March 2023).

44 “How to Mainstream Neo-Nazis: A Lesson from Ukraine’s New Government,” bellingcat, 21 October 2019, https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and- ... overnment/ (accessed 16 March 2023).

45 Christian Esch, Steffen Klusmann, and Thore Schröder, “Wolodymyr Selenskyj im Interview: ‚Putin ist ein Drache, der fressen muss‘,” Der Spiegel, 9 February 2023, https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/wolodymy ... fba834f27b (accessed 16 March 2023).

46 Serhiy Kudelia, “Veto on Peace/Veto on War: President Zelensky’s Donbas Imbroglio,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, no. 644, 3 April 2020, https://www.ponarseurasia.org/veto-on-p ... imbroglio/ (accessed 19 March 2023).

47 “Stavlennia Ukraintsiv Do Politykiv, Otsinka Diialnosti Orhaniv Vlady Ta Aktualnykh Podii,” Kiev International Institute of Sociology, 14 October 2019, https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=repor ... =2019&m=10 (accessed 16 March 2023).

48 “Suspilno-Politychni Oriientatsii Naselennia Ukrainy”, Kiev International Institute of Sociology, April 2020, https://www.kiis.com.ua/materials/pr/20 ... 202020.pdf (accessed 16 March 2023).

49 See multiple references in Petro, The Tragedy of Ukraine: 229-30.

50 Tetyana Malyarenko, “Transnistria Writ Large for Donbas? Several Battlefields Mark Ukraine’s Challenges,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, no. 735, 24 January 2022, https://www.ponarseurasia.org/transnist ... hallenges/ (accessed 21 March 2023).

51 Jonathan Brunson, “Implementing the Minsk Agreements Might Drive Ukraine to Civil War. That’s Been Russia’s Plan All Along,” War on the Rocks, 11 February 2019, https://warontherocks.com/2019/02/imple ... all-along/ (accessed 11 September 2022).

52 Volodymyr Ishchenko, “Denial of the Obvious: Far Right in Maidan Protests and Their Danger Today,” Vox Ukraine, 16 April 2018, https://voxukraine.org/en/denial-of-the ... nger-today (accessed 19 March 2023).

53 Volodymyr Ishchenko, “Ukraine’s Government Bears More Responsibility for Ongoing Conflict Than the Far-Right,” The Guardian, 4 September 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/ ... s-conflict (accessed 19 March 2023).

54 Michael Colborne, From the Fires of War: Ukraine’s Azov Movement and the Global Far Right (Stuttgart: ibidem, 2022): 83-85.

55 “Polnyi Prank s Eks-Glavoi MVD Ukrainy Arsenom Avakovym,” 3 November 2022, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmbh1S-wa9E (accessed 19 March 2023).

56 Olga Baysha, “On the Impossibility of Discursive-Material Closures: A Case of Banned TV Channels in Ukraine,” Social Sciences & Humanities Open 6, no. 1 (2022): 1-7.

57 “Stavlennia do zaborony kanaliv ‘112,’ ‘ZIK’ і ‘NewsOne:’ rezultaty telefonnoho opytuvannia, provedenoho 5-7 liutoho 2021 roku,” Kiev International Institute of Sociology, 11 February 2021, https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=repor ... y=2021&m=2 (accessed 19 March 2023).

58 S. Nitsova, G. Pop-Eleches, and G. Robertson, “Revolution and Reform in Ukraine: Evaluating Four Years of Reform,” PONARS Eurasia, July 2018, http://www.ponarseurasia.org/node/9864 (accessed 20 March 2023).

59 Ibid.: 59.

60 This argument is developed in Ishchenko, “Behind Russia’s war.”

61 Christopher Miller, “Ukrainian Reform Activists Derail Effort To ‘Destroy’ Anticorruption Body,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 7 December 2017, https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-nabu-im ... 02554.html (accessed 20 March 2023).

62 Simon Shuster, “Exclusive: How an Accused Russian Agent Worked With Rudy Giuliani in a Plot Against the 2020 Election,” The Time, 3 June 2021, https://time.com/6052302/andriy-derkach-profile/ (accessed 20 March 2023).

63 “Efektyvnist Informatsiinoi Polityky Naperedodni Vyboriv: Rezultaty Vseukrainskoho Opytuvannia Hromadskoi Dumky, Provedenoho KMIS Na Zamovlennia HO ‘Detektor Media’,” Detector Media, October 2018, https://detector.media/doc/images/news/ ... 2044/3.pdf (accessed 20 March 2023); “Yak zminylys updobannia ta interesy ukraintsiv do zasobim masovoi informatsii pislia vyboriv 2019 r. ta pochatku pandemii COVID-19,” Detector Media, 29 September 2020, https://detector.media/infospace/articl ... -covid-19/ (accessed 20 March 2023); “Otsinka Dii Vlady, Epidemiia Koronavirusu Ta Reaktsiia Na Potochnia Podii,” Kiev International Institute of Sociology, 29 June 2020, https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=955&page=1 (accessed 20 March 2023).

64 “Dumky ta pohliady naselennia Ukrainy: Lypen 2020,” Social Monitoring Center, 21 July 2020, https://smc.org.ua/dumky-ta-poglyady-na ... 2020-1360/ (accessed 9 July 2021).

65 Vasyl Cherepanyn, “The people’s rebellion, or why a showman became president of Ukraine,” openDemocracy, 24 April 2019, https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/th ... f-ukraine/ (accessed 20 March 2023).

66 Ishchenko and Zhuravlev, “How Maidan Revolutions.”

67 Paul Chaisty and Stephen Whitefield, “How challenger parties can win big with frozen cleavages: Explaining the landslide victory of the Servant of the People party in the 2019 Ukrainian parliamentary elections,” Party Politics 28, no. 1 (2020): 115-126.

68 Onuch and Hale, The Zelenskyi Effect: 196-201.

69 Volodymyr Ishchenko, “Towards the Abyss,” New Left Review, no. 133/134 (2022): 28-34.

70 “Otsinka hromadianamy sytuatsii ta protsesiv, shcho vidbuvaiutsia v kraini. Stavlennia do vstupu do Yevropeiskoho soiuzu ta NATO (lystopad-hruden 2021),” Razumkov Center, 24 December 2021, https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsi ... uden-2021r (accessed 19 March 2023).

71 Henry E. Hale, Patronal politics: Eurasian regime dynamics in comparative perspective (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015).

72 Atsushi Ogushi, “The Opposition Bloc in Ukraine: A Clientelistic Party with Diminished Administrative Resources,” Europe-Asia Studies 72, no. 10 (2020): 1639-1656.

73 Volodymyr Ishchenko. “The Ukrainian New Left and Student Protests: A Thorny Way to Hegemony,” in Magnus Wennerhag, Christian Fröhlich, and Grzegorz Piotrowski, eds., Radical left movements in Europe (London: Routledge, 2017): 216-218; Maxim Gatskov and Kseniia Gatskova, “Civil Society in Ukraine,” in Alberto Veira-Ramos, Tetiana Liubyva, and Evgen Golovakha, eds., Ukraine in Transformation: From Soviet Republic to European Society (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2020): 123-144.

74 Volodymyr Ishchenko, “Ukraine,” in F. Escalona, D. Keith, and L. March eds., The Palgrave Handbook of Radical Left Parties in Europe (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2023): 665-692. Volodymyr Ishchenko, “The Ukrainian Left during and after the Maidan Protests,” Study requested by the Die Linke delegation in the GUE/NGL, 2016, https://www.academia.edu/20445056/The_U ... n_Protests (accessed 22 March 2023).

75 Onuch and Hale, The Zelensky Effect.

76 R. Kit, G. Toal, K.M. Bakke, and J. O’Loughlin, “How Reliable Are Polls In Wartime Ukraine?” PONARS Eurasia policy memo, no. 830, February 2023, https://www.ponarseurasia.org/how-relia ... e-ukraine/ (accessed 17 February 2023).

77 Serhii Rudenko, “Spetsoperatsiia ‘Derusyfikatsiia.’ Interviu z holovnym redaktorom ‘Istorychnoi pravdy’ Vakhtanhom Kipiani,” Ukrainska pravda, April 25, 2022, https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2022/04/25/7341708/ (accessed 29 March 2023).

78 Branko Marcetic, “The State of Ukrainian Democracy Is Not Strong,” Jacobin, 25 February 2023, https://jacobin.com/2023/02/ukraine-cen ... e-zelensky (accessed 29 March 2023).

79 Anatoli Ulyanov, “The Superfluous People of Eastern Ukraine,” LeftEast, 10 September 2022, https://lefteast.org/the-superfluous-pe ... n-ukraine/ (accessed 23 March 2023).

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IN 2024
NATO TO DEPLOY ITS LARGEST MILITARY EXERCISE SINCE THE COLD WAR
12 Sep 2023 , 10:44 am .

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The exercise will take place in Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries between March next year (Photo: File)

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is preparing the largest military exercises since the Cold War for 2024, reports the British newspaper Financial Times . The media highlights that the Atlantic entity began a rapid transformation to go from being a crisis management alliance to a combat alliance.

The test will bring together more than 40,000 soldiers and, according to NATO officials, these maneuvers seek to demonstrate to Moscow that the organization is prepared to fight.

The exercise is called Steadfast Defender and will take place in Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries between March and next year, and is part of a new NATO training strategy, which plans to do two major maneuvers a year instead of one.

It is expected that between 500 and 700 air combat missions will be carried out, involving more than 50 ships and about 41 thousand soldiers. Another novelty is that Sweden will be included, whose application to join NATO must still be ratified by Türkiye and Hungary, bringing the total number of participating countries to 32.

The intention of these military exercises is clear: to intimidate and encircle Russia in the current war context and beyond. Recently the Deputy Foreign Minister of the Eurasian country, Sergei Ryabkov, warned that NATO could trigger an armed conflict between the nuclear powers in Europe after military pressure from the bloc.

https://misionverdad.com/la-otan-desple ... uerra-fria

Google Translator

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Shelling of the SMZ in Sevastopol
September 13, 9:50

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After the strike on the SMZ in Sevastopol.

2 people were killed, 24 were injured. The territory of the plant and 2 ships being repaired there were damaged.
According to the results of the attack, 7 out of 10 cruise missiles were shot down.
All sea drones in the Black Sea were also sunk. In the open sea.

By Russian night strike.
Reni and Ishmael attacked. The port infrastructure was damaged again, and the local oil depot in Reni was set on fire again.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8630486.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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