Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10784
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:49 pm

(There was no fresh Slavyangrad.es this morning, which makes me sad.)

PUTIN’S WARNING ON THE F-16 — NATO’S ARTICLE FIVE IS NOW FOR BURNING

Image

By John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

Until June 24 the combined air forces of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) are conducting their largest operation against Russia in the 74-year history of the alliance. The plan has been to disguise F-16 fighter jets as if they are piloted by Ukrainians, and pretend they are launched from Ukrainian territory.

In response, Russian artillery, missile and fighter-bomber forces have been disabling and destroying Ukrainian airfields, and every Ukrainian aircraft being flown from them.

Then on Friday, President Vladimir Putin dismissed the NATO pretence, warning that if an F-16 threatens to attack a Russian target, it would be “burned”, and so would the launch airbase and supporting aircraft – fuel tankers, electronic countermeasures, command-and-control, and decoys – no matter what NATO member-state flag they are flying, and on what territory they are based.

“The F-16 will also burn, there is no doubt,” Putin said in St. Petersburg on June 16. “But if they are located at air bases outside Ukraine, and used in combat operations, we will have to look at how to hit and where to hit those means that are used in combat operations against us. This is a serious danger of NATO’s further involvement in this armed conflict.” When the president and commander-in-chief announces “we will have to look at how to hit”, he means the General Staff have already assembled the operational intelligence and readied plans of attack with three minutes to launch; that is, against targets in Poland, Romania, Moldova, and possibly further west across the Czech and German borders.

In the president’s phrase “those means that are used in combat operations against us”, Putin also intends to identify airborne targets, manned and unmanned, over the Black, Baltic, and Barents Seas.

Never before has NATO’s collective defence proviso Article Five been explicitly challenged by the Kremlin. In practice, by describing the agreement of the NATO members that “an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all”, the NATO wording does no more than require each of the NATO members to take “forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary.” .

What is happening is that by aiming their display of NATO airpower at the Kremlin, US and German commanders in their Ramstein bunkers have provoked Putin to call their bluff: he is now aiming directly at the Poles, Romanians and Germans, telling them to “deem” whether war with Russia is “necessary”.

“Well, the Poles,” added Putin, “okay, they have their own goals, they sleep and see the return of Western Ukraine. And, apparently, they are gradually coming to this.”

In parallel, the US has escalated to nuclear weapons by flying two US Air Force (USAF) B-1B bombers from the UK Fairford airbase, refuelling in Germany, transiting Poland and Romania, to a point in the Black Sea off the Crimean coast and the Sevastopol naval base, where the aircraft transponders were turned off from public view.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Polish President Andrzej Duda have been also been trying to disguise Article Five by negotiating between themselves — they told the press last week — “what sort of security guarantees they would provide [the Ukraine] once the war ends… ‘Our support will last as long as it is needed’, Macron said. ‘We must ensure that Russia will not only not win this unfortunate campaign but also can never repeat it.’”

Image
At the Elysée Palace on June 12, Olaf Scholz, Andrzej Duda, Emannuel Macron.

Image
German Leopard tanks, US Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) destroyed on the battlefield on June 10; source,

The Financial Times was told to report the three officials are discussing how to provide the Ukraine with security guarantees less potent than NATO membership with its application of Article Five, but instead assurances “that are expected to include annual provisions of cutting-edge weaponry, Nato-standard training and intelligence-sharing…‘The question is between guarantees and assurances’ said one European diplomat involved in the talks. ‘We can’t promise them we will go to war for them, but we can give long-term pledges to keep them safe in other ways.’”

On the Ukrainian battlefield, however, the “cutting-edge” German, French and US weaponry has been defeated, and the Ukrainian and foreign men and means to replace them destroyed. The outcome which the Russians have called “de-militarization” of Ukrainian territory at the start of the Special Military Operation last year has now been defined by Putin to mean the accession of the Russian territories east of the Dnieper River, plus a “sanitary zone” from the river westward from Kiev to Lvov which will be deep enough to prevent attacks on the Russian east; and Polish conversion of the Galician region between Lvov and the Polish border.

Image
Source: https://www.bitchute.com/video/JjxHCw5PP2s9/
For the full speech and question-and-answer session, see: (Russian); the English translation incomplete.

“As for demilitarization,” Putin said on Friday, “after all, look, soon Ukraine will stop using its own equipment at all, there is nothing left. Everything they fight on, and everything they use, is brought in from the outside, but you can’t win for so long. And our defense industry is being promoted from day to day. We have increased the output of military products 2.7 times over the past year, and the increase in the most popular samples is tenfold, and further growth is taking place. Enterprises work in two, three shifts, and some day and night. And this tells us that we have a very large margin of safety.”

The implication is that for the Russian war outcome to be checked or defeated before there is no Ukrainian army left on the battlefield, “security guarantees” and “assurances” from NATO will not be enough — Germany, France and Poland must fight Russia directly, activating Article Five thereby. Their bluff called in Friday’s ultimatum over the deployment of the F-16, “the serious danger of NATO’s further involvement in this armed conflict”, as Putin warned, is that Germany, France and Poland will also be defeated on the field, and have no “security guarantee” or “assurance” to rely on for themselves, let alone for the Ukraine.

In his Friday speech Putin warned that Ukrainian military operations are failing up and down the line of contact. “What is going on with this so-called counteroffensive? Not quite so: somewhere Ukrainian units manage to reach the first line, somewhere they fail – that’s not the question. The question is that they use so-called strategic reserves, which consist of several components. The first of them is designed to break through the defense, the second is to use troops to consolidate territories, move through the territory. They didn’t achieve their goals at any of the sites – that’s what’s important.”

“Indeed, their losses are very large, about even more than one in ten compared to the Russian army. This is a fact. On technology: every day there is an increase in the loss of this equipment, somewhere now, to date, 186 tanks have been lost by the Ukrainian army and 418 armored vehicles of various classes. I’m not talking about the personnel right now, it’s necessary for the Ministry of Defense to voice itself. But, I repeat, the most important thing is that there is no success in any of the areas. The enemy had no success, as reported by the military.”

What happens next on the battlefield?

In the broadcast George Eliason introduces the evidence that, in desperation, the Ukrainian military will attempt to trigger a major nuclear explosion at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), causing radiation contamination of the surrounding area, as the Ukrainian destruction of the Kakhovka dam on June 6 attempted to use flood water to the same effect.

Image
For the story of Ukrainian artillery and commando attacks on the Zaporozhye NPP, read this. https://johnhelmer.net/the-internationa ... s-nuclear/

Image
For more details on the Kakhovka dam attacks, click. https://johnhelmer.net/losing-the-war-w ... sequences/

The first segment of the broadcast concludes with breaking news from federal court in Boston, Massachusetts, where the grand jury indictment of Jack Teixeira in the Pentagon Papers case was unsealed and published on June 15. Click to read in full the 10-page document.

For the time being, the Bellingcat intelligence unit and the New York Times, which have been collaborating to convict Teixeira of espionage, have failed to see the dramatic shift in the US prosecutors’ case against the young US Air Force (USAF) national guardsman. According to the Times report, “the evidence presented in the 10-page indictment represents a distillation of the immense trove of secrets Airman Teixeira is accused of taking from computers at an intelligence unit at the Cape Cod air base — and sharing with online friends he was hoping to impress in chat groups on Discord, a social media platform popular with gamers. But it was not immediately clear how many of the vaguely described incidents that underlie the charges had been previously disclosed and which ones were being made public for the first time.”

In fact, the new court filing confirms the Justice Department has decided to downgrade the originally reported charges against Teixeira from espionage on behalf of a foreign state or organisation to “willful retention and transmission of national defense information”.

Image
Source: https://drive.google.com/

The government now says that Teixeira had been illegally accessing classified intelligence materials for sixteen months before his arrest. “Beginning no earlier than January 2022 and continuing through in or about April 2023, in the District of Massachusetts and elsewhere, TEIXEIRA improperly retained and transmitted classified National Defense Information on a particular social media platform (“the Social Media Platform”).” The indictment claims this started six months after Teixeira had been vetted by the USAF and qualified for his special clearances to access TOP SECRET and Sensitive Compartmented Information (SCI) classified documents.

Despite the long duration of this allegedly illegal access, the counts officially filed against Teixeira are limited in time to a two and a half-month period between February 2023 and Teixeira’s arrest on April 13. Although Bellingcat, the New York Times and other US media have been told to report the leaks add up to dozens, if not hundreds of classified documents, the indictment charges Teixeira with leaking just four documents he had photocopied and two handwritten notes he made on classified documents after reading them. The notes, according to the indictment, carry “information regarding the compromise by a foreign adversary of certain accounts belonging to a US company” and “information regarding the provision of equipment to Ukraine, how the equipment would be transferred, and how the equipment would be used upon receipt.”

The new disclosures reveal that the focus of the case against Teixeira is just two documents from the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the deterioration of the Ukrainian military before the proposed counter-offensive, and two other documents, apparently from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA):

Image
Source: https://drive.google.com/

In the second half-hour Heinrich Buecker returns to the War of the Worlds from Berlin, as the German prosecutors who lost their case against him on April 29 have decided to appeal and take Buecker to a higher court. Buecker has been charged with “publicly approving a crime of aggression in a manner likely to disturb the public peace”; that allegedly was in a speech marking the German attack on the Soviet Union in 1941 when Buecker also argued against German participation in the new war against Russia.

For details of the Berlin court action, read this. Buecker’s first broadcast appearance can be followed here.

Initially in the Berlin district court last January, Buecker was fined €3,000; this was lifted in April, but may be reinstated in higher court action. In parallel, a court in Cologne has convicted a Ukrainian national, Yelena Kolbasnikova, who had been reported in Bild on May 8, 2022, as saying: “Russia is not an aggressor. Russia is helping to end the war in Ukraine.” This, the court ruled, was criminal approval of a crime of aggression because “it was undisputed that Russia had violated international law by invading Ukraine”. Kolbasnikova has been fined €900.

Image
Left, Heinrich Buecker at an anti-war protest at the Brandenburg Gate, Berlin; Right, Yelena Kolbasnikova outside the Cologne courtroom with a Russian flag emblem she had tried to wear in court until the judge ordered her to remove it. Deutsche Welle, the German state media organ, reported the Kolbasnikova case here. For a brief video clip of the Cologne court proceeding on June 3, click.

Buecker discusses the crackdown on public opposition to the war in Germany, and the reaction among Germans to the defeat of the German Leopard tanks and other weapons which the Scholz government has been supplying to Kiev.

In German public opinion, the most recent polls reveal the war against Russia is damaging the government coalition of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), whose voter support has now been reduced to the level of the Greens, whose leaders, Deputy Chancellor Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock are the most virulent anti-Russians in the government.

The voter impact is reflecting the loss of Russian gas, trade, and other price and job impacts from Germany’s economic sanctions against Russia, and from the destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipelines. Notwithstanding, the battlefield losses, and the role of the US in directing the war in the Ukraine and the government’s policies in Berlin, including the attack on Nord Stream, have failed so far to diminish German voter confidence in the US first of all, and then in the Ukraine.

In early March Deutsche Welle, the state propaganda organ, has reported a nationwide poll as revealing “Germans are worried about the impact of the war on their own lives. 58% said they fear that Germany could be drawn into the war, while 69% believe that Germany’s economy will deteriorate further…Some 47% of respondents to the latest survey said they believe Germany’s arms deliveries to Ukraine are appropriate — but 53% also say Germany’s efforts to end the war have not gone far enough.”

Image
Image

The poll reports that Olaf Scholz has been steadily losing public confidence, while Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck have been holding stable; the defense minister Oscar Pistorius, as anti-Russian as the two Green ministers, has been gaining over them all. Source: https://www.dw.com/

Image
Source: https://tntradiolive.podbean.com/

https://johnhelmer.net/putins-warning-o ... more-88180

***************

JUNE 17, 2023 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Russia won’t let Ukraine be bleeding wound

Image
Russian President Vladimir Putin: Kiev has lost 186 tanks, 418 armoured vehicles, losses mounting, St. Petersburg, June 16, 2023
With the Ukrainian offensive under way for a fortnight, all eyes are on the battlefields, and, crucially, Russia’s options ahead. In a little over three weeks from now, the NATO will be holding a summit in Vilnius and the West has choices to make too. We are arriving at a fork in the road.


The NATO expected the Ukrainian forces to punch through key Russian fortifications by now. In reality, they are struggling to get anywhere near the sprawling layered fortifications and in that desperate attempt, are taking massive losses, entrapped in minefields and taken to pieces by Russian artillery and missiles and the dreaded multi-role attack helicopters known as Alligator.

The signposts are best seen in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin press conference on Tuesday, lasting over three hours, with war correspondents. In just a week’s time after Ukraine’s offensive began, “25–30 percent of the supplied equipment (from NATO) has been destroyed,” Putin said.

Putin underscored three things. First, the goals set for the special military operations are “fundamental for us” because “Ukraine is part of the effort to destabilise Russia.” What does that mean?

It means Russian operations will not end without realising the twin objectives of “demilitarising” Ukraine and uprooting the present neo-Nazi regime in Kiev. The security and welfare of the Russian population also remains a cardinal objective — no more pogroms. Putin said Russia is going about realising these objectives “gradually, methodically.”

Second, Putin flagged: “The Ukrainian defence industry will soon cease to exist altogether. What do they produce? Ammunition is delivered, equipment is delivered and weapons are delivered – everything is delivered. You won’t live long like that, you won’t last. So, the issue of demilitarisation is realised in very practical terms.”

Third, the Kremlin’s preference so far has been to continue to grind down the Ukrainian military, whilst giving “selective responses” whenever any red lines were crossed — eg., Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy system, the destruction of the headquarters of the Ukrainian military intelligence. By the way, in that Kiev strike, Russia claims to have seriously injured Ukraine’s spy chief Kyrylo Budanov, the poster boy of western media.

Going forward, Putin said “everything will depend on the potential that is left at the end of this so-called counter-offensive. This is the key question.” After taking such “catastrophic losses,” it is upto the leadership in Kiev to rationally think about “what to do next,” Putin said.

He added, “We will wait and see what the situation is like and take further steps based on this understanding. Our plans may vary depending on the situation when we deem it necessary to move. That includes NATO equipment.”

Putin ridiculed the West’s grandiose talk about matching Russia’s vastly superior defence industrial capacity. He said: “And when they say they will start producing this or that: well, please go ahead. Things are not so simple during a recession… They are not as decisive as we are here in Russia. There is no passion there, these are fading nations; that’s the whole problem. But we have it. We will fight for our interests, and we will achieve our goals.”

Given these stark realities, Kiev should roll back the offensive. But that is not going to happen. Kiev is under immense pressure from Washington to claim some dramatic success. That said, the Ukrainian reserves are not infinite, either. Around 35,000 to 40,000 strong Ukrainian reserves are facing a massive Russian deployment manifold stronger in numbers (in hundreds of thousands) and advanced weaponry, and enjoying air superiority. There is a distinct possibility that at some point, the Russian forces may go on the offensive too.

Against this backdrop, the West claims that the NATO Allies are “looking at an array of options to signal that Ukraine is advancing in its relationship” with the alliance, to borrow the words of the US ambassador in Brussels Julianne Smith. Andres Rasmussen, former NATO chief and presently official advisor to Ukrainian President Zelensky, has threatened that a group of NATO countries may be willing to put troops on the ground in Ukraine if member states including the US do not provide tangible security guarantees to Kiev at the Vilnius summit.

Specifically, Rasmussen claimed that “Poles would seriously consider going in and assemble a coalition of the willing if Ukraine doesn’t get anything in Vilnius. We shouldn’t underestimate the Polish feelings, the Poles feel that for too long western Europe did not listen to their warnings.” The rhetoric took a heightened tone lately at the meeting of Heads of State and Government in the format “Weimar Triangle” (France-Poland-Germany) on June 12 in Paris where a consensus emerged that Ukraine should receive some security guarantees.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared, “It is evident that we need something like this, and we need it in a very concrete form.” French President Emmanuel Macron also called for a rapid agreement on “tangible and credible security guarantees.”

Indeed, this is all bluster. The idea of Poland “putting boots on the ground” is so patently absurd. The Polish military it will wither away in a confrontation with Russia. But what such theatrics show is that nerves are on edge as the spectre of defeat in Ukraine is endangering NATO’s unity.

So, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary-general, stepped in to inject some realism into the discussion, pointing out that for the present what matters most is that Ukraine survives as a nation. Stoltenberg stated: “I believe it’s not possible to give precise dates (for Ukraine’s admission as NATO member) when we are in the midst of a war… the most urgent task now is to ensure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent nation… because, unless Ukraine prevails, then there’s no membership to be discussed at all, because it’s only a sovereign, independent, democratic Ukraine that can become a NATO member.”

Stoltenberg took the cue from Washington. In fact, he was speaking while on a visit to Washington, in an interview with PBS.

Russia is not taking the eyes off the battlefield. In reality, Moscow is shoving down the western throat a historic strategic defeat. The choice for the West narrows down to negotiating with Russia on its terms, or to expect a military solution, which might mean the obliteration of Ukraine as a nation and the eviction of NATO.

Make no mistake, Russian offensive plans have been drawn up. There is talk among opinion makers in Moscow about creating new facts on the ground — a De-Militarised Zone along the Polish border. Now, that entails Russian forces crossing the Dnieper and liberating Kiev as well as liberate Kharkov and Odessa, two other Russian cities historically. Russia has no interest in annexing the western regions of Ukraine, which is hostile territory that Stalin annexed.

But western Ukraine has other neighbours — Poland included — who would have unfinished business of partition of their historical lands to settle. The unresolved nationality question is explosive, as Poles still remember the killings by the Ukrainian nationalists aligned with the Nazis. Historians say that more than 100,000 Poles, including women and even the smallest children, perished at the hands of their Ukrainian neighbours in a nationalist drive in areas that were then in southeastern Poland and are mostly in Ukraine now. To put it mildly, what remains of Ukraine under the weight of a crushing military defeat no one can predict.

The Kremlin will exercise its options depending on the exigencies of the situation. Moscow seems to have concluded that there is no real alternative to a military solution. It will not allow Ukraine to remain a chronic wound infected by the microbial species from the transatlantic universe. Cauterisation of the wound is necessary, albeit with potential risks.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/russia- ... ing-wound/

*********

Africa peace plan
June 17, 15:32

Image

Peace Plan for Africa.

1. Achieving peace through diplomacy through negotiations;

2. Peace negotiations must begin as soon as possible;

3. De-escalation of the conflict on both sides;

4. Ensuring the sovereignty of states and peoples in accordance with the UN Charter;

5. Security guarantees for all countries;

6. Ensuring the movement of grain and fertilizers by both countries;

7. Humanitarian support for war victims;

8. Settlement of the question regarding the exchange of prisoners of war and the return of children;

9. Post-war reconstruction and assistance to victims of the war;

10. Closer interaction with African countries.

PS. In general, the African proposals are close to the Chinese peace plan and are also partially acceptable to Russia, but completely unacceptable to the US and its Nazi proxies. Therefore, they will not be accepted.
Which will not prevent Russia from positively assessing the African proposals during Putin's meeting with African leaders, which should show that Russia is committed to peace, and the United States is committed to war. The reaction of Zelensky is not important here, the reaction of the global South is important here. And the Russian Federation will certainly take it into account in its public assessments of the African peace plan.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8428376.html

Habitual picture
June 17, 20:08

Image

Another German heavy tank got stuck in a ditch. 80 years later.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8429157.html

Additional protocols
June 17, 22:32

Image

Putin unveiled additional protocols of agreements signed in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine.
These agreements were not implemented due to pressure from the United States and Britain, who relied on a long war.

The parameters of the demilitarization of Ukraine reflect the positions of Russia and Ukraine in the negotiations.

Personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - 85,000 / 250,000
Personnel of the National Guard - 15,000 / 15,000
Tanks - 342 / 800
AFVs - 1029 / 2400
Artillery - 519 / 1900
MLRS - 96 / 600
Anti-tank guns - 96 / 380
Mortars - 147 / 1 080
ATGM - 333 / 2000
ZRK - 190 / 200
ZU - 119 / -
MANPADS - 608 / -
Combat aircraft - 50 / 74
Support aircraft - 52 / 86

In general, the boundary parameters are now known. In a number of positions they were quite close.
It is also worth noting that when concluding the Istanbul agreements, Ukraine retained the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions in full. Russia received only Crimea and LDNR.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8429571.html

Google Translator

********

Russian Foreign Minister Warns of F-16 Jets Overflying Ukraine

Image
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Jun. 16, 2023. | Photo: Twitter/@Alan39982121

Published 16 June 2023 (21 hours 42 minutes ago)

F-16 aircraft can be equipped to carry nuclear weapons, Sergey Lavrov said.


Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Friday that Moscow is ready to give a military-technical response if F-16 fighters fly over Ukraine.

"If we see that these planes fly over Ukraine and pose a threat to us, of course there will also be a military-technical response," Lavrov said in an interview with the RT television channel.

According to the Russian diplomat, the F-16 aircraft can be equipped to carry nuclear weapons. In this regard, Moscow had submitted "a very serious demarche" within the framework of the "nuclear five" panel of the UN Security Council, Lavrov said.

On this occasion, the foreign minister denounced the constant West's pumping of weapons, ammunition, and vehicles to Kiev to attack Russian territory.


Lavrov said that with the Ukrainian crisis, the West seeks to maintain its position of hegemony. It triggered the current conflict at the hands of Ukraine to eliminate competitors it identifies in Russia and China, the diplomat said.

The minister added that Western countries keep saying that Ukraine stands for democracy and the values of Western civilization, but this "is exactly the same as claiming Nazism as a mode of existence."

The Russian diplomat said that the West has failed in its attempt to maintain its hegemonic position as well as in its efforts to draw more and more countries into its condemnation of Russia through countless sanctions.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Rus ... -0019.html

********

America at War-Provoking the Consequences
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JUNE 16, 2023
Christopher Black

Image

America At WarThe United States of America is at war with Russia. There is not much point in using terms such as “proxy war” to describe the situation. If a belligerent in a war is acting as a proxy for another power and that power is not engaged directly in the war, the term can be useful. But when the power, for which the “proxy” engages in the war, is directly involved in the war itself, then it is a co-belligerent, a party to the war directly, not simply by proxy.

The issue is whether each state is pursuing its own interests and has its own independent means of doing so, or whether the interests and forces of the allied powers are subordinate to the interests and forces of a leader. In such a case, the enemy being attacked can regard all its opponents as a single entity.

In this regard, Clausewitz said that, “if you can vanquish all your enemies by defeating one of them, that defeat must be the main objective of the war. In this one enemy, we strike at the centre of gravity of the entire conflict.”

If we analyse the war in the Ukraine theatre of operations in these terms, it becomes clear that the Ukrainian military forces are in fact forces of the United States of America. They have been created, armed, trained, supplied, financed, and are directed and commanded by the Americans, for American interests. The government for whom they nominally fight is a puppet state, installed in power by the United States and its NATO allies in a coup d’etat in 2014. It has no independent interests outside of American ones, and no control over the war or the forces nominally under its command.

The United States of America is the leader of a hostile military alliance, the purpose of which, since its inception, has been to isolate, threaten, attack and destroy Russia, has conspired with its alliance for years to achieve this end, has spent vast resources to prepare the attack, and has, with malice and determination, sabotaged any proposals for peace. It insists on war. It is the centre of gravity of the entire conflict.

The American government claims that it is not engaged even in a proxy war with Russia, that they are merely assisting an independent nation suffering aggression from another, that this does not put them at war with Russia, a war which, they claim, they are trying to avoid despite their actions and daily propaganda.

But, like the British, and the rest, the truth is the United States of America is a party to the war directly, according to all accepted criteria under international law. It supplies money to conduct the war, tanks, armoured vehicles, aircraft, arms, ammunition, military provisions and other war materials, engages its own military forces-military advisors and combatants, provides military intelligence, obtained on a real-time basis from its spy networks, satellite observations and electronic data collection, engages in an intense propaganda war against Russia, has attempted, through “sanctions,” to impose a blockade on Russia and its economy and people, blew up the Nord Stream gas pipeline, sends, on a regular basis, senior government and military officials, including the American President, Congressional bigwigs and the leaders of other members of the military alliance, to meet with and direct the actions of their lieutenant Zelensky, and conducts constant military exercises further threatening attacks against Russia. The NATO Air Defender military exercises begin in Europe on June 12, the day I write this, involving hundreds of NATO aircraft.

Make no mistake. The United States of America is at war with Russia. No amount of rhetoric can hide that fact and what the consequences for the United States will be. To quote Clausewitz again,

“Danger is part of the friction of war. Without an accurate conception of danger, we cannot understand war.”

The problem is that the neither the Americans nor the other members of its unholy alliance, seem to realise the danger they are in, neither their leaders nor their citizens. Like the British, they suffer from the delusion that they are insulated from the consequences of their war, that they are invulnerable, that Russia will not dare to respond to the attacks upon its territory and people by attacking their territories. This shared delusion makes them ever more dangerous, since they think, they can keep escalating their actions in the war without any limits. They cannot-not without consequences.

On June 8th Tass reported, following the statement by the former head of NATO, Fogh Rasmussen, that NATO countries may send their forces into the conflict directly, that Dmitry Medvedev stated,

“Fogh Rasmussen wasn’t a very smart man before. And now he has sunk into a doctrinaire’s dementia. In an interview with The Guardian, he stated that even if Banderavite Ukraine doesn’t receive an invitation to join NATO in Vilnius, the countries of the alliance will be able to send their troops there. Sort of on their own.”

“Well, have the people of these countries been asked? Who among them wants war with Russia? Do they really want hypersonic strikes on Europe? And what does Uncle Sam think about this? It would affect him too, wouldn’t it?”

Again, on June 1, TASS reported that Dmitry Medvedev stated, in connection with the attack on Russians in the Belgorod region by NATO-Ukrainian forces,

“The aim was simple – to cause damage, to harm to the civilian population somehow, And the fact that our enemy is already behaving as a terrorist characterizes in a very specific way both the Ukrainian regime and those who are behind it – first of all the Americans and the Europeans, who, in fact, have got on the warpath with us. Terrorist acts must entail the harshest retaliation possible.”

Medvedev’s views have been stated by other members of the government, by members of the Duma and by President Putin when he referred to Russian strikes on command and decision centres wherever they may be.

The Americans can whistle in the dark, lie to their people, try to fool the world, but what matters is what the Russian government thinks and knows, and it thinks, because it knows, that the United States of America is at war with Russia and seeks Russia’s complete defeat and subjugation. The campaign in Ukraine is just a phase of this war, is the current geographical space for this war, so for the United States and its allies to assume that they can carry out attacks on Russia and not suffer being dealt with in kind or worse, that war cannot be waged on their territories, is a serious mistake.

Indeed, on May 31, Dmitry Medvedev stated with respect to Britain,

“London is, in fact, waging an undeclared war on Moscow, which means that any British official can be viewed as a legitimate military target.

“Today, Great Britain is acting as an ally of Ukraine, by providing it with equipment and personnel as military assistance, that is de facto waging an undeclared war against Russia. Therefore, any of its officials, both military and civilian ones, who are making a contribution to the war effort, can be viewed as a legitimate military target,”

Medvedev was commenting on a remark by British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly who had justified the drone attacks on Moscow, saying that Ukraine had the right to attack targets on Russian territory for self-defense.

He added,

“Foolish officials in the UK, our eternal enemy, should remember that under universally recognized international law governing the conduct of war in modern conditions, including the Hague and Geneva Conventions with their additional protocols, their situation can also be qualified as being at war.”

The same analysis applies in spades to the United States of America.

An interesting comment in this regard was made by the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on June 3rd when, according to Tass, he stated in an interview on the Rossiya-1 TV channel, that,

“Ukraine has simply become a tool of the West’s ‘hybrid war’ against Russia, and therefore it is futile to deal with it in resolving the conflict. Now, Ukraine is actually a tool of conflict. The conflict has indeed become broader, as the collective West is waging a hybrid war against our country. It is futile to deal with this tool in order to resolve the conflict, and this must be understood too.”

All the rhetoric from NATO about whether or not Ukraine can become a member of NATO is just a smokescreen to hide from their people the fact that Ukraine is already de facto part of NATO. Whether or not the formalities of signing pieces of paper, of getting the approval of NATO states is followed through, is irrelevant.

Remember that on March 26, 2022, in Warsaw, President Biden stated,

“We have a sacred obligation under Article 5 to defend each and every inch of NATO territory with the full force of our collective power.”

He was referring not only to Poland but to Ukraine as well. What Russia feared is now the reality. Ukraine is de facto a NATO state. And all the rhetoric from the West and commentators about whether or not NATO will invoke Article 5 is another smokescreen designed to mask what is really happening, for NATO has already activated Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.

The talk about invoking it in the future is an attempt to hide NATO’s weakness, its defeats on the military, economic and political fronts, even as they throw one weapon system after another at Russia, and inject NATO forces into the fighting only to have their equipment and forces destroyed.

They have nothing left to throw at Russia that can defeat it. So, they pretend NATO is not yet really engaged. But these facts make the USA even more dangerous as it becomes clear that the combined West cannot defeat Russia, a nuclear power, using conventional means.

Remember also that the United States has a first strike nuclear arms policy, and they have already placed, in Romania and Poland, land-based versions of the Aegis Air Defence System, which can be used to launch nuclear-armed missiles at Russia. These systems have been tested. The one in Poland is reported to be fully operational as of June 30. The danger to Russia is immediate and existential. Those systems are one of the reasons Russia activated its military operations. Russia has further responded to this, and to the attacks on Russia, clearly planned and ordered by the US and UK, by placing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus which are to be made operational after July 7, when the facilities to store and use them will be completed.

Those tactical nuclear weapons are designed for battlefield use. We hope it never comes to that, but Russia faces a direct threat from people bent on its destruction that think they are untouchable. So, Russia faces very difficult choices on what to do and how to prevent an escalation to all our nuclear war while ensuring its own security.

On May 23, during his visit to Laos, Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev issued a warning on the day Russian security forces destroyed the Ukrainian raiding force that attacked civilians in the Belgorod region.

“The North Atlantic alliance does not take the threat of nuclear war seriously enough, thus making a big mistake. NATO is not serious about this scenario. Otherwise, NATO would not have supplied such dangerous weapons to the Ukrainian regime. Apparently, they think that a nuclear conflict, or a nuclear apocalypse, is never ever possible. NATO is wrong, and at some point, events may take a completely unpredictable turn. The responsibility will be placed squarely on the North Atlantic Alliance,”

Medvedev pointed out that no one knows whether the point of no return has been passed,

“No one knows this. This is the main danger. Because as soon as they provide something, they say: let’s supply this, too. Long-range missiles or planes. Everything will be all right. But nothing will be fine. We will be able to cope with it. But only more and more serious types of weapons will be used. That’s what the current trend is.”

So, we come back to Clausewitz. The American government and people cannot understand the war they are engaged in unless they understand the danger, they are in. They have to understand their country is the centre of gravity in this war, whose defeat will mean the defeat of all its minions in NATO. The Russian people know the danger they are in. The Americans, through NATO, through their NATO puppets in Ukraine, have attacked Russians in Russia. It is logical to expect that Russia will decide to bring home to the Americans what war means, what danger they are in, and they do not need to use nuclear weapons to achieve this.

Russia can strike using its conventional hypersonic weapons as well, against which the USA has no defence whatsoever, as has been established with the destruction of the Patriot Air defence complexes in Ukraine which could not stop Russian missiles. They have no other air defence systems operational in the United States territory or on its naval forces that can stop them either. Russia has not decided to take this step yet. But it can and the Americans can do nothing about it except bluster about using nuclear weapons against Russia, But Russia took that possibility into account when the special military operation began.

The American people have not directly experienced war in their own territory for a long time. They have no idea what it is. They have no idea of the danger they are in so long as their government continues its aggressive policies, not only against Russia, but China as well. The American people, misled and misinformed, have no conception of the dangers of this war anymore than the British people and the peoples of the other NATO countries do. The American people must be warned. The United States of America is at war, and no amount of bluffing and lying can protect them from the consequences their government is provoking. To repeat what I said in my warning to the people of Britain, the consequences are predictable and they will be catastrophic.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/06/ ... sequences/

********

Chronicle of the special military operation for June 17, 2023
June 17, 2023
Author4

Chronicle of the special military operation for June 17, 2023

Ukrainian formations continue to attempt an offensive in the Orekhovsky sector : after long fighting, Russian units retreated in an organized manner from Pyatikhatki southeast of Kamensky , after which the fighting continued on the outskirts of the settlement.

Massed artillery strikes are inflicted on the concentrations of enemy forces, and army aviation is also actively working. According to some reports, the enemy's irretrievable losses are at least 400 people and twice as many wounded.

At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine again attacked the frontline settlements of the Bryansk , Kursk , Belgorod and Kherson regions , as well as the DPR : residential buildings and infrastructure were damaged. One person was killed and three others were injured, including a child.

In addition, the demonstration by Russian President Vladimir Putin of the initialed draft treaty with Ukraine , which was being prepared in March 2022 in Istanbul , was actively discussed today . According to the head of state, after the promised withdrawal of troops from Kiev , the Ukrainian authorities refused to comply with the agreements, obeying the instructions of Western curators.

Image

The situation on the front line and the fighting
Positional battles and mutual reconnaissance continue in the Starobelsky direction . Near Kremennaya , the enemy attempted an offensive, but the Russian troops held their positions, forcing the Ukrainian formations to retreat to their original positions. Artillery and aviation provide fire support to the defenders.

In the Bakhmut direction, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to try to break through the Russian defenses in the areas of Kleshcheevka , Kurdyumovka and the Berkhovsky reservoir . At the same time, the enemy did not manage to advance in the area. To maintain the morale of the members of the Ukrainian formations, the commander of the ground forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, once again arrived .

[youtube]https://rybar.ru/wp-content/uploads/202 ... -43-40.mp4[/youtube]
In the Donetsk direction, fighting continues in the Maryinsky and Adveevsky sectors : Russian troops are advancing house by house, from time to time repelling enemy counterattacks. At the same time, the military personnel of the RF Armed Forces are attacking the Zverinets fortified area of ​​the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the southeast of Pobeda .

Over the past weeks, fierce clashes have not subsided on the Vremievsky ledge : the Ukrainian command over and over again sends new forces to storm Russian positions, which become a tasty target for artillery crews and army aviation crews. The heaviest fighting continues in the area of ​​Novodonetsk and Urozhaynoye , while Russian servicemen from the 37th brigade had to retreat in one of the areas to take up more advantageous positions.

At the same time, new footage with damaged APU equipment regularly appears on the Web, despite the fact that the enemy is trying to protect it as much as possible, given the enormous losses in the previous days of the offensive.

Image
Heavy fighting continues in Pyatikhatki southeast of Kamenskoe . Company groups of the 128th Guards Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried several times to gain a foothold in the village, losing several dozen people.

Early in the morning, Ukrainian paratroopers resumed the assault with the support of artillery. Putting up a smokescreen, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the side of Lobkove again stormed Pyatikhatki .

The Russian fighters were forced to retreat to spare positions on the surrounding heights, but soon they launched a counterattack and, as of 11:00, were clearing Pyatikhatki .

Ukrainian formations do not take into account losses, throwing bodies at the front (in fact, Russian positions were taken not by quality, but by quantity). According to reports from the field, there are practically no Western vehicles on the site, there are only a few pickup trucks and Soviet infantry fighting vehicles. Army aviation is working on enemy assault groups. According to some reports, the enemy lost almost 400 people dead and twice as many wounded.


South of Orekhovo, the enemy resumed the attack at the Rabotino - Verbove line , where they had previously failed to advance to the assault groups of the 47th and 33rd Ombre of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. After artillery preparation, the Ukrainian armored groups advanced to the positions of the 291st and 70th regiments of the RF Armed Forces.

Russian fighters on the front line, artillerymen and aviation are working non-stop. The cannonade does not stop for a minute. South of Malaya Tokmachka, a column of armored vehicles was destroyed, including two tanks and three AFVs. The fighting continues.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

Image
In the Bryansk region, Russian air defense systems intercepted three Ukrainian drones that tried to attack the Novozybkov PS of the Druzhba oil pipeline : there were no casualties or damage .


The oil pumping station has been the target of attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine more than once: in addition to UAV raids , they tried to hit it with a Tochka-U missile, and several explosive devices were found on the territory of the pumping station.

Image
The Armed Forces of Ukraine again fired at the border areas of the Kursk region . In the Khomutovsky district, the village of Salnoye was hit : two residential buildings and two outbuildings, as well as a power line, were damaged. There were temporary problems with the electricity supply in the village.

Image
Ukrainian formations also launched attacks on the border Volokonovsky district of the Belgorod region . In the village of Tishanka , shell fragments damaged a power line, no one was injured. Emergency services are on the scene.

At the same time, shelling of settlements in the Donetsk agglomeration did not stop . Throughout the day, several times the enemy fired cannon artillery shells at Makiivka : residential buildings were damaged, one woman was injured. A child was injured in Gorlovka, and a 62-year-old man died in Yasinovataya, a woman was injured.

In the Zaporozhye region, Ukrainian formations shelled Molochansk during the day , destroying a residential building. There were no casualties or any other damage. Later, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired on the Kuibyshev region : according to preliminary data, two civilians were killed and a child was wounded.

Today, Ukrainian formations once again fired at settlements on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region . Chaplinka , Novaya Kakhovka , Kardashinka and Sergeevka were hit .

Political events
On the draft peace treaty with Ukraine in 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin showed a delegation from African countries a draft peace treaty, which, according to the Russian leader, was signed by the head of the Ukrainian mission at the talks.

An annex to the treaty was also shown, according to which the number of Ukrainian armed forces, as well as military equipment, should be significantly limited.

In response, Russia, the United States, Britain, China, Belarus, Turkey and several other countries were supposed to become guarantors of the fulfillment of the treaty and the security of Ukraine .

The Ukrainian side has not yet commented on this information.

On the possibility of seizing Russian assets in the EU

The European Central Bank has warned the EU authorities that the withdrawal of Russia's previously blocked Russian assets would greatly undermine confidence in the euro as a world currency and harm the eurozone's financial stability.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10784
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Sun Jun 18, 2023 10:50 pm

The importance of Kiril Budanov
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 06/18/2023

Image

The recent raid in the Russian region of Belgorod, which has so excited Ukrainian radicals and the Western press despite being carried out by all kinds of people from clandestine sectors linked to neo-Nazi, fascist or supremacist ideologies, has once again highlighted the growing weight of the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. As one of the two great intelligence services, and often in open rivalry with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), for years linked to Arsen Avakov, the Directorate led by Kiril Budanov has been gaining prominence on the information front as that their presence is felt in the rear of the military front.

For the moment, Kiev remains firm in its official discourse and unmarks or denies certain operations and its links to them, although at the same time it does not hesitate to celebrate its successes, real or imagined, and use them as part of its propaganda. In the case of the actions produced in the Russian rear in the Ukrainian territories, Crimea or Donbass, Ukraine limits itself to speaking of Ukrainian partisans , while the raids in the Russian Federation are carried out by Russian underground groups against the Kremlin or Russian partisans.. The only real question is whether the attacks on the Ukrainian territories are the work of the SBU or GUR. In the case of actions in Russia, the organization and leadership of the GUR is becoming clearer. After the last big operation in Belgorod, only some media such as the Financial Times partially admitted the participation of Ukrainian military intelligence in the events. “A Ukrainian military intelligence official admitted on Tuesday to cooperating with the groups behind the raid: the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Free Russian Legion, who have claimed responsibility for the Belgorod raid and a series of similar incidents that have occurred. in spring”, wrote the medium.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/
Although Kiev maintains its official discourse and has always tried to keep the distance between official structures and acts such as explosions in Russian infrastructure, selective assassinations in the Ukrainian territories under Russian control or in the Russian Federation itself, the participation of military intelligence and the Kiril Budanov's leadership in these plans has become increasingly apparent even to those interested in maintaining a pristine image of the Ukrainian government. “Major-General Kiril Budanov is a former Ukrainian Spetsnaz officer who was wounded three times fighting in Donbass. Zelensky seems to have given him free rein to cause trouble in Russia, to torment the Kremlin, and to make ordinary Russians fear that war is coming to his doorstep,” he wrote inThe Times Mark Galeotti, citing intelligence sources, assumes the participation of the GUR and Budanov as organizers of all kinds of attacks in Russia.

Galeotti mentions, for example, the murder of Vladlen Tatarsky, whom he describes as an ultranationalist blogger, forgetting, as usual, that he was from Makeevka, Ukraine, and not from Russia. as in that case, in which the woman who gave Tatarsky the figure loaded with explosives that minutes later would end her life in a public act, the version of The TimesRegarding the attack, the Kerch bridge also goes through the interested use of people who were not aware of the act they were going to commit. According to Galeotti, in an attack organized by the Ukrainian GUR, the bridge connecting mainland Russia with Crimea was attacked by means of a truck bomb that not only caused serious damage to the bridge, but also killed the driver himself, who was never aware of the load he was carrying. A justified assassination to try to hinder the supply of Russian troops mainly through the railway connection, which was more damaged than the roads, which were partially reopened just a few hours after the attack.

The GUR, qualified by the British intelligence source quoted by The Timesas "a Ukrainian Mossad" it was also behind the explosives that derailed several freight trains, the main supply route for the troops of the Russian Federation, in the Briansk region and the drone attack on the Kremlin just two days before of the May 9 parade. Regarding this attack, which clearly sought to frighten Russia and force it to cancel the most important public event of the year, Galeotti comments that it was probably “launched by GUR officers on Russian territory or guided by agents with a line of sight to the target. These appear to be the responsibility of Bratstvo, an elite Spetsnaz unit." This comment by Galeotti confirms something that the media and war experts have not wanted to see, but which has been evident for months: the Korchinsky battalion,

For years, Korchinsky stood out for his hateful statements against the population of Donbass, which he favored both massacring and internment in concentration camps. At that time, the leader of Bratstvo was described as an anecdote, a free verse that in no way represented the point of view of the state. In reality, the vision of Korchinsky and his battalion, although verbally more radical and open about the objectives, was always consistent with the performance of the State. The same is repeated now, when all that hatred that for eight years has been directed at the population of Donbass, is directed at the entire Russian population, including those who, despite residing in territories that Ukraine considers its own, feels nationally or culturally Russian.

A rising star in this war and with manifest political aspirations that worry even Ukraine's allies, as Galeotti shows in his article, Kiril Budanov's view is also consistent with heavy-handedness and re - education . .

Responding to a question about the future victory, Budanov replied, referring to the population of Crimea, “an extremely difficult time awaits us, a period of several years to reintegrate our territories. Because, excuse me, but we are going to receive back 3 million inhabitants who have been living for 9 years under the influence of Russian propaganda. Those people have a completely different worldview.” The rejection of the Government of Ukraine, whose coming to power was perceived as a coup that planned to impose a nationalist vision of the country, as has actually occurred, is not due, according to the official Ukrainian discourse, to rational reasons, to the war in Donbass , the economic blockade or the collective punishment of the construction of a dam to prevent the passage of water from the Dnieper to the North Crimean channel.Russian propaganda and, therefore, the solution is not dialogue or understanding, but a strong hand, re-education, a ban on Russian media and, as Mikhailo Podolyak added, the rejection of any possibility of autonomy in favor of a unitary and centralist state. For Ukraine, the war is not just a military objective in search of a victory at the front, but a fight in which it has to impose itself by force against Russia and against a part of the population that, in certain regions, is the majority. In that work, the bold Budanov, willing to murder and extort at the front and in the rear, could not have found a better ally than the ultra-nationalist Korchinsky, who like the leader of the GUR is also willing to "cross many red lines."

Ubiquitous in the media for months, Kiril Budanov suddenly disappeared from the media at the end of May. His last star appearance was to assure Russia that Ukraine would take revenge for the latest missile attack, which had caused fatalities. At the time, the latest attack on Belgorod was not only underway, but kyiv and its kindred media claimed control of part of the territory. Hours later, Ukraine insisted on its demand that the population not publish the result of the Russian attacks. Although the reasoning was not to give information to the enemy, the damage caused made it clear that the real reason was to hide the results of attacks on such important infrastructures as the GUR headquarters. Kiril Budanov has not been seen since and as with Zaluzhny's media disappearance, speculation has not been long in appearing. This week, Russian sources alleged that the GUR director was injured in the attack, something Ukraine denies, saying simply that Budanov has "a lot of work and little free time." This was stated by Andriy Yusov, who tried to minimize the importance of the long absence of his boss, whom he seems to have replaced precisely in one of the most important aspects of his work: that of media propaganda as a weapon of psychological warfare.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/06/18/la-im ... more-27538

*************


Dmitry Polyanskiy’s Remarks to the Press Following Security Council’s AOB Discussion of the Sabotage at Nord Stream Pipelines
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JUNE 16, 2023

Image

Ambassador Polyanskiy: We have raised under AOB (“any other business”) the question of investigation of the sabotage of Nord Stream-1 and Nord Stream-2. We drew attention of our colleagues in the Security Council to the fact that the so-called national investigations conducted by Sweden, Germany and Denmark are not moving forward. In fact, what we see is just moving around in circles, some kind of pretension that Russia is aware of what is happening, which is totally false. You know that we distributed a document in the Security Council – the compilation of letters that we exchanged with the authorities of Germany, Sweden and Denmark. There were also certain awkward acknowledgments, notably by Swedish Prosecutor General that Russia is not aware of any details of the investigation. And that falls in the line of what we claim in the Security Council.

We stressed that this situation is absolutely intolerable for my country, that my country will do its best to pursue this cause. We will seek an international investigation and a punishment for those who are behind this crime. It is inadmissible that perpetrators of such a heinous crime, which directly affects international peace and security, are not yet identified and prosecuted. In a nutshell, that was what we said during the consultations.

Q: You said you will seek an international investigation. Does that mean you are planning to put forward a UN resolution to do this? How will you do that?

A: We recall the recent vote in the Security Council when twelve of our colleagues abstained. So we are now thinking about how we would pursue this cause. Nothing is excluded in this regard. We just took note of the fact that during the deliberations in the Security Council there was a total unanimity that the national investigations (which were portrayed as something that would bring about the truth about what happened) should be accelerated and that the Security Council should be briefed about it. It has not happened after three months. What we see is only deliberate attempts to mislead the investigation. There are certain versions that I do not even want to comment on because each of them is more absurd than the previous one. It is absolutely clear that there is a state actor behind this sabotage and all the serious experts I think are unanimous about this.

Q: As you just mentioned, previously you have tried at the Security Council. What other options do you have for trying to get an international investigation?

A: One of the options I used today. We just continue to raise this issue in the Security Council and continue to say that we are not satisfied. It implies that we have certain other ways to deal with the situation and certain options in our pocket.

Q: The United States and other NATO member states are considering some kind of agreement and proposal similar to the Israeli model with Ukraine. What are your thoughts on that? And if that happens, would you think that NATO member states are a party to the war?

A: It is very difficult and maybe inappropriate for me to comment on what is happening between NATO countries and its puppet Ukraine. I think they have enough channels to do it themselves.

Q: Recently there was an explosion on the [Kakhovka] dam and Ukraine accused Russia. Now, could it be a wise proposal to say the UN investigation should be done for both at the same time?

A: I do not think we are against any investigations that would lead to establishing the truth, especially when the Nord Stream pipeline is concerned.

As for the Kakhovka situation, it is totally different and there is a lot of evidence which is very difficult to deny, pointing to the Ukrainian responsibility. With the pace of day, this evidence only multiplies. It is absolutely clear right now that it was profitable for Ukraine to do this act of sabotage in the interests of the so-called counter offensive. I do not think that there is a serious need for any investigation in this regard at this point.

Q: So you are actually saying that you will be okay with an investigation about what happened at the dam.

A: I am not saying that we will be okay with putting the two events at the same level and saying that the investigations of both of them are as necessary as the other one. I would say that as for the Nord Stream, it is absolutely clear that this is an act of international sabotage that happened in international waters. There are a lot of factors on the surface that international experts should analyze to come to an obvious conclusion. Obvious to us, but maybe not too obvious to some others.

On Kakhovka, I think this situation is absolutely different. Again, it is very easy to analyze. And I think even the Ukrainians have understood by now that they have made a lot of mistakes by planning and performing this attack. For example, they raised the level of water in the rivers that are above there to make the pressure excessive and to really help this barrier to break. This was clearly proven and is very difficult to refute. I do not think that there is a need for any investigation in this regard. It is absolutely clear to everybody.

Q: The IAEA chief is there [at the ZNPP] now and he has spoken with Russian officials, I think it was in April. What do you think the status is of some kind of a … he is not asking for a safety zone, but some kind of guarantees of safety around the plant?

A: I think he was here in Security Council while I was on vacation and I think he was absolutely clear in formulating the points that he wanted everybody to support. I think that everybody more or less supported what he was saying. And that includes the monitoring of the attacks at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which are, of course, conducted by the Ukrainian side. So we have very high hopes that the IAEA now will have a more open hand in admitting the obvious.

Q: I have one question regarding Nord Stream. We know what the vote was in the Security Council, but since then do you think there have been any countries on the Council that perhaps now would support you? And in general, around the world, do you find that more and more countries are supporting your call for an investigation or not?

A: We feel that more and more countries understand what is happening in terms of this campaign aimed at diverting the attention of international community to certain absurd versions that have absolutely no ground behind them. And this makes a lot of our partners – we feel it – understand clearly that those who are behind this attack are doing everything they can to mislead possible international investigation and to create to create muddy waters for such an investigation to proceed.

Thank you.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/06/ ... pipelines/

Ukrainian Counteroffensive’s Second Week Ends in Failure
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JUNE 17, 2023
Scott Ritter

Image

Operation enters the second week of Ukraine’s long-awaited and highly touted counteroffensive, some basic conclusions can be drawn even though the fighting continues, and will continue to rage, for some time to come.

First and foremost, the counteroffensive gambit has failed. While there is still considerable combat strength left in the Ukrainian military, including more than 75% of the NATO-trained and -equipped 60,000-strong cohort Ukraine had assembled in the past eight months, fundamentally flawed assumptions about the quality of the force on which Ukraine and its NATO allies had placed their collective hopes for victory over Russia have been exposed. In short, Ukraine lacks the military capacity to overcome Russian defenses.

Ukraine’s most elite assault brigades, equipped with the latest Western military technology, failed to advance out of what Russian defensive doctrine calls the “cover” line of defense—the buffer that is designed to channel and disrupt an attacking force prior to reaching the “main” line of defense.

Ukrainian casualties were extremely heavy, with Russia achieving a 10:1 kill ratio in terms of manpower, which is unsustainable from the Ukrainian perspective. The reasons for the Ukrainian failure are fundamental in nature, meaning that they cannot be overcome as things currently stand and, as such, the Ukrainian military has zero chance of success, no matter how hard they press subsequent attacks.

First and foremost is the quality of the Russian defenses, especially in terms of the barrier network (minefields, obstacles, and trenches) which, when combined with the tenacity of the Russian defender and the overwhelming superiority Russia enjoys in terms of fire support (both artillery and air-delivered), is the reason the Ukrainians are unable to advance beyond the “cover” layer of the Russian defenses. Ukrainian equipment and tactics are insufficient to the task of breaching the Russian obstacle barriers in any meaningful manner, dooming the attacking forces to be destroyed piecemeal by Russian artillery and air strikes, as well as local counterattacks mounted by Russian special forces.

Besides the poor tactics and equipment deficiencies (yes, the Leopard tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles were not the miracle weapons Ukraine and its Western supporters had hyped them up to be), the Ukrainians are paying the price for Russia’s impressive suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) campaign that has been ongoing for many weeks now. Russia has not only neutralized Ukraine’s ability to defend strategic targets far beyond the front lines, but also to project any meaningful air defense capability into the actual zone of conflict. This, combined with the lack of any viable air force, leaves the attacking Ukrainian ground forces exposed to the full weight of Russian air power.

Russian fixed-wing aircraft have been able to deliver precision-guided munitions with deadly effect to the assembly areas used by Ukraine to gather their attacking forces prior to committing them to the battlefield. It is estimated that between 25-30% of Ukraine’s casualties occur from these strikes. Russian helicopters can use their anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) with lethal effect on Ukrainian forces operating in the zone of contact, and Russian loitering munitions (i.e., “kamikaze drones”) have taken a heavy toll of Ukrainian forces as well. Unless Ukraine can reassert some semblance of air defense onto the battlefield, both in the rear areas as well as the frontlines, and sortie its own air power capable of challenging Russian air superiority over the battlefield, then no amount of courage and tactical innovation on the part of the Ukrainian ground forces will alter the deadly calculus of war that currently prevails today.

One of the many tragedies of the ongoing Ukrainian-Russian conflict is the fact that much of what Ukraine does on the battlefield is dictated not by military necessity, but rather political imperative. The recently concluded months-long Battle for Artemovsk (Bakhmut) is a case in point, where Ukrainian President Zelensky insisted on pouring manpower and equipment into a battle for a town that most military experts believed to hold minimal strategic military value. The geography, however, did not dictate the scope and scale of the battle, but rather the perception of Ukrainian defensive tenacity, and as a result between 60-75.000 Ukrainian soldiers lost their lives in what was a losing effort.

Similarly, the Ukrainian army is being asked to make what amounts to a suicide attack against well-prepared Russian defenses under conditions which, as detailed earlier, can only result in a decisive Ukrainian defeat. This time, the culprit is Ukraine’s NATO allies who, on the eve of their annual summit, are desperate for any sign that the multi-billion-dollar investment they have collectively made in the Ukrainian military can pay even the most rudimentary dividends. For this reason, NATO will continue to pressure Ukraine to double down on defeat, pressing the Russians offensively even though any gains, if in fact any can be had, would be pyrrhic in nature and unsustainable over the long run.

The reality is that when NATO gathers in Vilnius on July 11, the Russians will be well into the process of destroying the third Ukrainian army built by NATO. The first was assembled during the buffer provided by the diplomatic “sham” of the Minsk Accords, from 2015-2022. Some 260,000 strong, this force was largely destroyed by June of 2022. The second army, consisting of some 80,000 newly trained and equipped Ukrainian soldiers backed by thousands of foreign mercenaries, the direct result of tens of billions of dollars of military aid provided by NATO, was able to launch the successful Ukrainian counterattack in the fall of 2022, before being decimated in the positional war that followed (including the Bakhmut slaughter).

The 60,000-strong 12-brigade Ukrainian counterattack force currently operating against the Russians, again the result of tens of billions of dollars in military equipment (including modern Western tanks, artillery, and infantry fighting vehicles), will most probably be destroyed, or facing imminent destruction, by the time the NATO summit convenes. The primary question facing NATO is does it have the political, economic, and military capacity to raise a fourth Ukrainian army, and after its demise, a fifth, sixth, and more?

NATO is politically committed to waging a proxy conflict with Russia “to the last Ukrainian.” This tragic reality means that, regardless of the battlefield reality that exists in Ukraine, NATO will continue to push Ukraine to sacrifice its manpower in a fruitless struggle against Russia for the simple fact that NATO is unwilling to willingly lose political face at home and abroad.

However, this political will does not automatically mean that NATO will be able to sustain this objective either economically or militarily.

While recent statements made by US General Mark Miley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, indicate that there are tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers in the US/NATO training “pipeline”, and that the US/NATO is assembling equipment sufficient to equip these soldiers, they will not be ready for combat for several months yet—long after the third Ukrainian army has met its fate on the field of battle.

Miley spoke of new air defense systems for Ukraine, and other NATO officials speak of the possibility of providing Ukraine with (old) F-16 aircraft. New air defense systems, however, cannot in and of themselves alter a military reality imposed by Russia on Ukraine through its strategic SEAD victory. Ukraine will simply continue a losing struggle against Russian air power. The same holds true of any F-16 fighters that might be provided to Ukraine—too little, too late, and in any event incapable of achieving a meaningful battlefield result.

In Vilnius, NATO will be confronted with the reality of its impotency as a military alliance when it comes to countering Russia in Ukraine. Any military analyst of any competence will know that, as things currently stand, Ukraine simply cannot prevail over Russia. NATO illusions of a “frozen conflict” that seem to drive their insane desire to arm Ukraine to infinity and beyond, moreover, are driven by fundamentally flawed assessments regarding Russian economic competence and capacity, Russian military proficiency, and the will of the Russian people to sustain this conflict.

Here is the root cause of NATO’s strategic failure in Ukraine—a complete lack of understanding about the reality of Russia today. Russia will be able to out-produce NATO from a standpoint of military technology until which time NATO nations fully transition into a wartime economy, something NATO nations neither have the political will nor economic means to accomplish.

The Russian military has largely overcome the deficiencies which plagued it in the initial phases of the Special Military Operation, and the Russia armed forces assemble in the Special Military Operation zone are highly trained, well-equipped, and properly trained for the tasks they have been assigned. Moreover, the Russian nation has rallied around the leadership of Russian President Vladimir Putin in an overwhelming fashion, united in the belief that the proxy war NATO is waging against Russia in Ukraine is existential in nature and, as such, one that Russia cannot lose.

NATO will not alter course in the immediate period following the Vilnius summit—there is simply too much political momentum in place to bring about any meaningful alteration of the current trajectory in Ukraine. But neither will NATO produce a winning formula in Ukraine. Rather, NATO will continue to pursue little more than a variation of an existing theme—to arm Ukraine so that it can fight as long as it is capable of sustaining the fight.

This short-sighted posture will result in the inevitable military collapse of Ukraine, probably sometime between late summer/early fall of this year. When this happens, NATO will be left scrambling to construct some sort of face-saving mechanism to salvage its weakened geopolitical position vis-à-vis Russia. What that will look like is unknown at this time. But one thing is for certain—because NATO refuses to consider an off-ramp from the Ukrainian conflict today, there will be no future for Ukraine tomorrow. NATO political pride will be the downfall and destruction of the Ukrainian nation, its military, and its people.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/06/ ... n-failure/

NATO’s Appetite for Unlimited Expansion Continues to Grow
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JUNE 16, 2023
Uriel Araujo

Image

On June 12, Swedish authorities in Stockholm decided to extradite a Turkish national who had been convicted of a drug crime in his home country in 2013. The man is a self-proclaimed supporter of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and claims that the real motivations behind his deportation actually lie in his Kurdish politics, the PKK being an outlawed party in Turkey. The West, in any case, remains bent on having Sweden join NATO, following the steps of Finland, and Turkey in turn remains the only obstacle, making good use of its vetoing power within the Alliance’s structure to obtain leverage.

As I wrote, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will not allow the Nordic country’s accession into NATO unless Washington changes its Kurdish policy in the Middle East. The US ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, has acknowledged, in an interview with Axios, that it is “unlikely” Sweden will join NATO before next month’s Vilnius summit (as Washington had hoped). There is, however, some room for political and diplomatic bargaining, as Ankara is trying to purchase a new batch of F-16 fighter jets from the US, and, although the American presidency supports it, Congress still needs to approve the deal. Thus, US lawmakers are trying to use the $20 billion sale as leverage to have Ankara dropping its opposition to Stockholm’s accession.

This Swedish development is part of a larger context of Stockholm trying to “appease” the Turkish authorities in Ankara. Just last month, the country tightened its anti-terrorism laws, in a clear response to Turkey’s allegations about Sweden being a safe haven for (Kurdish) “terrorists”. The political and diplomatic pressure on Ankara, however, has increased: during talks at the White House on June 13, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and US President Joe Biden himself all called for Turkey to approve the Swedish application.

The pressure, in fact, is not upon Ankara only. American Senator Jim Risch, a powerful voice within the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has threatened to block a $735 million arms sale to Hungary over the latter’s delay in approving Sweden’s accession. He said: “Given promises that were made to me and others last year that this vote would be done, and the fact that it is now June and still not done, I decided that the sale of new US military equipment to Hungary will be on hold.” The US and the EU have been accused of meddling into Hungarian internal elections in 2022, by backing the opposition against Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Moreover, the Western bloc and NATO’s appetite for expansion extends to the Balkas also. In the region, there are four NATO members (Greece, Spain, Romania, and Slovakia) that do not recognize the state of Kosovo, which declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, after a referendum. At the time, the UN International Court of Justice on Kosovo ruled that the territory of a given state is not obliged to apply for permission to the country’s central authorities in order to declare its sovereignty away from it. This of course is yet another instance of Western double standards and hypocrisy on Crimea, for example.

Last month, amid the increasingly tense Kosovo-Serbia dispute, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić demanded that NATO-led troops stationed in Kosovo protect Kosovo Serbs from ethnic violence. Kosovo, a new state not recognized by Serbia, is also pursuing NATO membership. American senators Gary Peters, of the armed services committee, and Chris Murphy, a foreign relations committee’s member, during a visit to Kosovo’s capital city Pristina, have urged the country to implement a Western-brokered peace deal with neighboring Serbia, so that it can join both NATO and the European Union.

The Finnish and Swedish NATO bids are thus part of the continent’s militarization (its “NATOization”), as pursued by the US, which has also made clear it desires an increasingly nuclearized Europe. The two countries’ membership, As a matter of fact, will result in extending the Alliance’s territorial reach as far out as the Russian eastward Arctic flank, thereby making Russia the only non-NATO state in the Arctic. This can be described in no other way than as the further “encircling” of Russia.

Considering the Atlantic Alliance’s well-known will to expand, since 1999 at least, which was, by the way, a notorious breach of the 1990 promise, one could even reason that Russia’s key goals have been defensive in nature and mostly a response to that, and that NATO’s enlargement was one of the main causes of the Ukrainian crisis 9 years ago and remains so today.

The US-led political West’s willingness to work with the opposition in Hungary (a NATO member) indicates just how comfortable it feels with depriving Budapest of sovereignty in making both external and internal political decisions. Washington’s actions to promote its own interests without even taking into account the positions of its own partner and allies has consistently been a characteristic feature of US foreign policy.

The decision taken by the political leadership of Finland and Sweden in turn to apply to join NATO without holding a referendum is a clear indication that the authorities in these nations ignore the views of their own populations on key issues pertaining to the development of these countries.

Amid the still ongoing energy crisis and the rising costs of accommodating the waves of Ukrainian refugees, upon applying to join the world’s largest military alliance, these Nordic countries are basically signing up for enormous increases in national budget expenditures in order to fulfill NATO membership requirements. This will also have social and political costs domestically.

To sum it up, NATO’s reckless expansion is bound to increase domestic tensions within the European bloc and to further provoke and antagonize Moscow, thus making peace an increasingly distant prospect.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/06/ ... s-to-grow/

******

A straight line from the SPD curators of the Schlangenbad Dialogue of 2015 to today’s suicidal foreign and commercial policy of Chancellor Scholz

My essay yesterday about Sergei Karaganov and his menacing writings about a preemptive nuclear strike to sober up the West attracted a lot of interest among readers. I received feedback requesting more information on what I saw and heard inside the think tank of Germany’s Social Democratic Party at its annual Russian-German “dialogue” meetings in the resort town of Schlangenbad in May 2015.

My German translator in particular was keen to access the article on that conference that I had published in my collection Does Russia Have a Future? For his benefit and for the benefit of others among you who wish to pursue this, here is the link to the text as it was republished by a news portal which had a vast audience at the time: https://russia-insider.com/en/politics/ ... ate/ri6830

The editors attached a title to my piece which may have seemed alarmist in 2015, but regrettably was all too prescient. I urge you to go to this article, because it spells out what was seriously wrong with Russian diplomacy at the time, which set the stage for ever more aggressive and dangerous Western behavior. It also identifies the new ‘secular religion’ that had taken hold of the Socialist Democratic Party and which was founded on Idealism and on rejection of Realism. In this sense everything wrong with the German Left was and is what is wrong with Progressive Democrats in the USA: they all have fallen into the trap of Neoconservatism, which is the foreign policy formula now taking us to Armageddon.

While trying to find my own MS Word file of the Schlangenbad article I accidentally came upon the file of the notes I took at that conference and later used as a basis for the published work. In these notes, of course, I named names, and that is also useful today in various ways to add depth to our understanding of how Russian society functions.

I have cut and pasted those notes below. They underline the sad fact that within the German Left, which is nominally the Socialist Democratic Party, the vast majority of apparatchiks, and probably of rank in file members had by 2015 abandoned the traditions of détente which were famously laid down by Willy Brandt during his chancellorship. In this sense, the change in German defense and European security policy that Chancellor Scholz announced triumphantly last autumn was merely a belated implementation of the change in mentality that occurred within his party eight years or more earlier.

The Russian Opposition leader whom the Germans in Schlangenbad saw as the next Russian President if fortune went their way was, as I name him here, Vladimir Ryzhkov. Ryzhkov had been one of the top personalities fomenting the public disturbances over alleged election irregularities in 2011-2012 and over corruption more generally. He was allied in this with Boris Nemtsov and with former premier “5%” Kasyanov. Kasyanov got that moniker for his bribe-taking, which did his reformer image no harm. It was at these demonstrations that Alexei Navalny came to public attention.

I mention Ryzhkov now simply to make a point about Mr. Putin’s Russia. Where did Ryzhkov go after doing his best to discredit Putin as a crook? Was he sent off to Siberia? Nothing of the sort! Wikipedia tells us that Mr. Ryzhkov is now a professor at the Higher School of Economics and is also on the consultative board of….”Russia in Global Affairs,” the same publication which just published Karaganov’s article on preemptive nuclear strikes.

Let us speak here about the real world: Even after the departure of many ‘fifth column” personalities following the onset of the Special Military Operation, there remain in Russia many defiant political activists, who are exposed to no persecution. Yes, the nest of subversives in Yekaterinburg that goes under the name “Yeltsin Center” is finally being investigated pending possible designation as a Foreign Agent. But the Higher School of Economics remains a refuge for Russia’s free-market compradors. The country is very big and very complex, a fact that seems to escape the attention of our Russia experts in the West.

*****

Friedrich Ebert Stiftung – Schlagenbad conference – 28-30 April 2015

Participants – 65 Germans and 15 Russians

A large majority of Germans say in the conference what they would otherwise say on the record to the public: they are all Idealists who subscribe to the secular religion’s trinity of articles of faith:

That long-term peaceful relations with authoritarian regimes are not possible, because such regimes are fragile, do not enjoy popular support and so in order to ensure loyalty and keep the lid on opposition, these regimes practice aggressive foreign policies, engage in xenophobia and nationalism. In the Russian case, they cite the successful domestic opposition that brought about the Bolotnoye demonstrations in December 2011.
That foreign policy must be values based and not interests based. It must stand for the rule of law, democracy, market economy
That nations have the obligation to interfere with one another in defense of human rights
The organizers of the conference have included independent (Karaganov from the Higher School of Economics and another academic from MEMO) and opposition academics and politicians without however alienating the Kremlin representatives. A Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and his wife stay through the full program. They manage not to be present during the worst attacks – by the former MGIMO professor who was dismissed one year ago for his article against the Crimean reunification (he delivers a venomous critique of Putin’s Russia as a godless Communist monster) and Vladimir Ryzhkov, who seems to be especially beloved here.

By and large the conference attendees come back year after year.

My host, Krumm, finally spends ten minutes with me at lunch on this third day. It is clear he has no enthusiasm for co-hosting my planned September event in Brussels about Germany’s New Ostpolitik. He does not like the idea of a German foreign policy. The official line seems to be that there is no German policy, only an EU policy. The Germans are hiding behind the fiction of Brussels. Otherwise there are obvious lessons from this Schlangenbad conference: the Stiftung likes behind closed door events for the benefit of invited politicians and government officials. Krumm says they don’t like scholarly events (what he means is they don’t like public events. I think the television angle is not for them). He suggests that I write him a one-page proposal to co-sponsor the September event, but I think this is just a polite way to shift responsibility for what will be either silence or a nyet.

While at lunch, Vladimir Ryzhkov sits down to my right and Reinhard Krumm introduces us. I explain who I am and what I am doing, setting up Round Tables. To move to safer areas of chat, I ask him who he thinks killed Nemtsov. He says there is no doubt the murder was ordered by Kadyrov as a present to his boss. The FSB know all the details, the actual gunman is now in Grozny and is being protected by Kadyrov. There is a fight going on between what Ryzhkov calls the two pillars of the regime: the FSB and Kadyrov. Ryzhkov says that the Chechens were also behind the Politkovskaya murder, doing it exactly on Putin’s birthday as a present to him. Getting serious, I turn to Ryzhkov and tell him that we have something in common: he is a Russian dissident and I am an American dissident. I say that I think he is an optimist, whereas I am a pessimist – I think that we are heading for WWIII. I mention the old issues of the Cold War are back with us: the permanent existential threat of nuclear war, the issue of better Red than Dead, the issue that the more you put pressure on Russia the more repressive the domestic regime will be. Note: Ryzhkov was totally silent for the first two days of the conference. However in the Thursday morning session, the last plenary, he unleashed a lengthy attack on Putin and the regime, including its representative here Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Meshkov and his insistence that the European Home can and must still be built. To have such a house you must have house rules. You cannot throw dogs or cats from the roof, you cannot beat little children, you must not have loud music at night. Point: you cannot do business with this Putin regime as it breaks all the rules. Even if you accept that there was a coup d’etat on 22 February, which we do not, this gave no reason for seizing the Crimea. Etc, etc. Similar argumentation, almost the same playbook as what I heard from Elmar Brok in his debate with Russian ambassador to NATO in Brussels Grushko.

Talk today Friday at breakfast with the quite young Fedor Voitolovsky, deputy director of IMEMO, the Institute of World Economy and International Relations. This guy is an opposition personality but is open to discussion, civilized. Could pay to look him up in Moscow. Also with Vladimir Handl, research fellow from the Czech Institute of International Relations, Prague. Also very critical of the Putin regime, onset of fascism, whom they half expect to move into Mariupul next. Highly critical of the bullshit presentations from the Russian officials starting with Meshkov and their phony denials of Russian intervention in Ukraine which discredits the regime in their eyes. Both gents hear me out on the uncivilized dialogue today, on the ‘’stooge of Putin’’ and other ad hominem argumentation of the mainstream. Also we have a common point with Voitolovsky on how the NYT is today no different from Fox News. I argue that Germany has not yet come to grips with its objective role as a direct competitor with Russia in geopolitical space. I mention that in the USA, the conflict is seen as a strictly US-Russian confrontation and here it is strictly an EU-Russian confrontation, that both conceptualizations are incomplete and make a solution impossible. They have never seen the question put this way, though they say that the US view is mirror image of how Russians view it

They are very happy when I criticize the Putin government for its obvious foreign policy weaknesses. As for example, its putting bets on the European Right and thereby alienating the German Far Left, ignoring the reality that no Right forces can succeed in Germany by definition.

At the wine tasting in our “cultural program’’ this afternoon, Alexei Kosygin joins me and we chat about my work in the liquor industry. He is a fan of single malts, especially Oban.

See the German political correctness: We are just bunny rabbits. We in Germany and Europe have virtually disarmed, we can pose no military threat to Russia, so why all the muscle flexing, why the hot rhetoric.

We Germans have never practiced regime change, orange revolutions, so why is Russia so excited.

Germany has no Ostpolitik. Our foreign policy is made in Brussels.


[Note: I indeed organized a Round Table on Germany’s New Ostpolitik on 29 September 2015 in the Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, which is the think tank of the Belgian Foreign Ministry. I did so on behalf of the American Committee for East-West Accord, of which I was then a co-founder and board member. The co-sponsor was Germany’s Heinrich Böll Stiftung. See https://www.egmontinstitute.be/events/g ... mpetition/ ]

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/06/18/ ... or-scholz/

*******
Chronicle of the special military operation for June 18, 2023
June 19, 2023
Rybar

Ukrainian formations carried out massive strikes against civilian targets in Russia , including in the Bryansk , Kursk , Belgorod and Kherson regions, as well as the DPR : two people were killed and at least 30 others were injured.

At the same time, in various sectors of the front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are attempting to attack Russian positions near Avdeevka and Maryinka , on the Vremievsky ledge and in the Orekhov area . In the Kherson region, enemy DRGs are active, crossing the shallow Dnieper in boats.

At the same time, the most violent clashes took place in the area of ​​​​the settlement of Pyatikhatki in the Zaporozhye direction : after the occupation of the village by Ukrainian formations, a flurry of fire from cannon and rocket artillery fell on them - local success turned into colossal losses for the enemy.

At the same time, rumors are spreading on the Web about the supply of Merkava tanks to Eastern Europe, including the possibility of purchasing this equipment by Poland or Ukraine .

Image

The situation on the front line and the fighting
In the Starobelsk direction, the Ukrainian command is transferring additional forces, including foreign mercenaries, near Kupyansk , from where they can try to break through the Russian border in the Valuyek area or use these forces to fight in Dvurechnaya . In the Svatovsky sector, Russian troops went on the offensive and tried to take control of the heights near the railway that separates Novoselovskoye and Stelmakhivka : fighting continues at the moment.

On the Soledar directionthe intensity of the fighting decreased significantly: throughout the day, the parties exchanged artillery strikes and conducted mutual reconnaissance.

In the Donetsk direction, Ukrainian formations were able to oust Russian units from their positions near Krasnogorovka in the Avdeevka sector in the morning , but by the evening the servicemen of the RF Armed Forces managed to regain control over them. In addition, the enemy made two attempts to attack Peski from Nevelskoye and Pervomaisk : the attacks were repulsed, the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were driven back.

[youtube]http://rybar.ru/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/img_6949.mp4[/youtube]
At the junction of the South Donets and Zaporizhia fronts, a difficult situation persists. In some areas, the fighting goes on for more than a day. The enemy attempted to attack from Belogorye and Malaya Tokmachka in the direction of Novopokrovsk , but did not achieve success. Moreover, in the Rabotino area , the Russian Armed Forces not only repulsed the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also knocked out Ukrainian formations from the forward positions occupied yesterday in the area of ​​​​the Chubenkov gully and forest plantations near the Shiroka gully .

The Ukrainian formations, through numerical superiority and colossal losses, were able to oust the RF Armed Forces from the village of Pyatikhatki . The settlement, located in the lowland, is being densely treated with cannon and rocket artillery, including the Solntsepek TOS.

Artillery duels continue in the Kherson direction : Russian troops hit objects and places of concentration of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the vicinity of Kherson and Berislav . At the same time, the enemy again tried to land troops on the left bank of the Dnieper, however, units of the RF Armed Forces destroyed two boats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from small arms and mortars.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

Image
In the Bryansk region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to attack civilian infrastructure. Last night, two drones dropped ammunition on the Maritskaya electrical substation : the power cable and line switch were damaged. A fire broke out at the facility. In the nearby city of Sevsk , as well as nine other settlements, there were temporary problems with electricity supply. There were no casualties.

Image
In the Kursk region, the enemy attacked three settlements in the Glushkovsky district . In Glushkovo, residential buildings, shops and power lines were damaged: two people received shrapnel wounds. A sugar factory came under fire in Tetkino . Popovo-Lezhachi also came under fire .

Image
Ukrainian formations launched massive strikes on settlements in the Kherson region of Russia. During the night, the enemy fired at least seven missiles at Lazurnoye in the Skadovsky district: five rounds intercepted the anti-aircraft defenses. According to our data, one person was killed and another 20 were injured. The Partisans were hit, presumably, by two Storm Shadow missiles, one of them was shot down. A large fire broke out at the landing site. During the night, New Kakhovka , Kakhovka , Vasilyevka and Tavriysk were also fired from barrel artillery . In the afternoon, a temporary accommodation center inNaked Pier : the object was destroyed, there were no casualties.

Political events
On the possible supply of tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and weapons

According to the Israeli web portal Walla , Israel is negotiating the sale of more than 200 Merkava Mk2 and Mk3 tanks to Ukraine and Poland.

European Commissioner for the Internal Market and Industry Thierry Breton said that the EU intends to intensify efforts to deliver weapons and ammunition. According to the official, Europe is preparing for the fact that the military conflict will last for several more months or even more.

At the same time, the European Central Bank warned the European Commission that the use of profits from the frozen assets of the Bank of Russia to help Ukraine could undermine confidence in the euro as a world currency.

About training pilots on the F-16

Yuriy Ignat, spokesman for the command of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that training courses for Ukrainian officers within the framework of the International Aviation Coalition have already begun , but the pilots of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not yet left to master the F-16. Regarding aviation assistance, Ignat said that the military leadership is considering, in addition to the F-16, other aircraft models to create a powerful aviation group, in particular the F-18.

About detentions in Dnepropetrovsk

According to local channels, the SBU is massively detaining senior police officers in Dnipropetrovsk : at least 17 people have been arrested. According to some reports, law enforcement officers are suspected of having links with the drug business.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

These Nazis and their bosses are the best thing that ever happened to the Masters Of War.

Mebbe big storms tomorrow, my crummy satellite hookup ay not be adequate to the task...
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10784
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Mon Jun 19, 2023 2:25 pm

Diplomacy against war
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 06/19/2023

Image

The failure of the Istanbul summit, when the war had not yet become the total and possibly permanent war that it now threatens to become, marked, in April 2022, the end of a political negotiation process that had begun just a few days after the Russian invasion. In that time, Kiev had gone from handing out light weapons to the population to defending cities like Kiev from Russian tanks - which never entered the city - and from the chaos of a confrontation between civilian and military intelligence services that cost the one of the negotiators to refuse to seek an agreement to stop the war. After the summit, in which the formality of the act and the official presence of Turkey suggested that an agreement was expected, the leader of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, announced what appeared to be an agreement in principle. Russia promised to significantly reduce military activity in the northern regions of Ukraine, including Kiev, then practically besieged but with the front line bogged down in trench warfare that was causing heavy casualties and destruction, and Ukraine would get security guarantees that were not would apply in Donbass and Crimea. In practice, the principle of agreement presented by Medinsky implied the Ukrainian resignation both from NATO and from the territories lost since 2014. and Ukraine would get security guarantees that would not apply in Donbass and Crimea. In practice, the principle of agreement presented by Medinsky implied the Ukrainian resignation both from NATO and from the territories lost since 2014.

The agreement was torn apart just minutes later by a tweet from Mikhailo Podolyak, who denied that Ukraine was going to give up part of its territory. Days later, Russia withdrew from Kiev, Ukraine denounced the deaths of Bucha and Boris Johnson visited Kiev with a speech that would be released later, but which would be summed up as saying that the West would not accept that agreement even if the Zelensky government did. Months later, the statements of Naftali Bennett, in April 2022 President of Israel and one of the people who most quickly tried to position himself to act as a mediator, seemed to confirm the widespread version that it was Boris Johnson's intervention that prevented the agreement, which in fact had already been rejected by the Ukrainian authorities. However, Bennett's words qualified that this intervention had not prevented the agreement but rather the continuation of the negotiations, which effectively stopped initially because of what happened in Bucha, later because of what happened in Kramatorsk, the referendums on accession to Russia or the annexation itself. Prohibited by presidential decree any negotiation with Vladimir Putin, the possibility of a dialogue in search of a diplomatic resolution to this war that accumulates enormous casualties and catastrophic destruction has been annulled.

Since then, with war as the only acceptable solution for the Ukrainian government and its partners, who agree that the only possible resolution is one that implies Russian unilateral surrender or complete defeat, the only peace proposals that have been produced They have come from non-Western countries and that, despite condemning the invasion, have sought to remain neutral precisely in order to act as mediators. Even before his electoral victory, Lula da Silva had already applied for mediation between Russia and Ukraine to achieve a ceasefire and negotiations to end the war. However, his speech, in which he blamed both countries for the outbreak of the war and its continuation, was never well received by kyiv or its partners, also upset by the refusal of Latin American countries to send weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. Leaders like Alberto Fernández, Gustavo Petro or Lula da Silva not only showed a strategic autonomy that European countries have shown to lack, but also positioned themselves solely and exclusively on the side of peace.

Something similar would later occur with the Chinese proposal, a roadmap of good practices for international relations that sought to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity, not only of Ukraine, but of all countries. Despite this nuance, which obviously pointed to the Taiwan question, and which also insisted on the need to flee from the bloc policy, Beijing's logic is the same as that of Lula da Silva and calls for a ceasefire and start a negotiation immediately. Both arguments are contrary to the interests of the West, isolated from the rest of the world with the firm position of continuing the war until final victory and also focused on putting pressure, not only on Russia, but also on China in a policy that inevitably involves recreation of blocks and an increasing distance between them.

In recent weeks, following the line of peripheral and non-European countries seeking to resolve the current war in Europe, Indonesia, a firm ally of the United States since the Cold War, added its proposal, which not only proposes a ceasefire and negotiation, but rather referendums in the disputed territories, a point that caused the immediate ire of Ukraine, which is hardly receptive to any proposal that distances itself from its ten points for peace, which are, in reality, the demand for Russian unilateral surrender in all territories, including in Crimea.

The last peace proposal to materialize has been that of several African countries led by South Africa. Last week, its president, Cyril Ramaphosa, was accompanied by Macky Sall, the president of Senegal, Hakainde Hichilema, the president of Zambia, Azali Assourmani, the president of the Comoros, the Egyptian prime minister Mustafa Madbuli and special envoys from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. they visited both Ukraine and Russia.

Used for propaganda, and made the obligatory visit to Bucha, the African delegation culminated in Kiev the first part of its visit, which began, according to several members of the delegation, with a delay of nine hours in Poland, held up by the Ukrainian authorities. . In the final press conference with the South African president, Volodymyr Zelensky did not want to miss the opportunity to challenge African countries for a position of neutrality that he considers pro-Russian .. Ukrainian communication throughout the visit was also unmistakably hostile. “It is obvious that the cessation of Russian terror and the withdrawal of all Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine is what can stop this war,” Zelensky wrote, also insisting that only Russia is to blame for the conflict. "Ukraine and the whole world do not need frozen conflicts or simmering wars," said the Ukrainian president in clear reference to the plans that imply a ceasefire.

Ukraine has made it clear that it seeks a concrete peace: one in which it can impose its will. The Minsk experience shows that kyiv is unwilling to implement any peace agreement that has not unilaterally dictated the terms. "It is obvious that the cessation of Russian terror and the withdrawal of all Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine is what can stop this war," Zelensky insisted, referring to the missile attack on Kiev during the African visit of which he accused Russia. . However, members of the delegation such as Lumumba Amin, son of Idi Amin and representatives of Uganda, claimed that they had not heard any explosions in the capital during their visit.

It is possible that Ukraine's reasoning for maintaining this position of absolute refusal to dialogue with Russia, rejection of any compromise and, above all, the guided visit to Bucha was to show African leaders the places where the war has turned out to be the harshest. can change the position of African leaders. This is how Western leaders have acted, much harsher with Russia after their visits to places like Bucha. However, it is probable that for those countries that seek to mediate in search of an immediate peace, although perhaps imperfect, the verification of the immense damage that the conflict is causing is precisely an argument to reaffirm their position.

In Saint Petersburg, and not before the false news that the African delegation had not obtained permission to land in Russia was spread in the South African and Pro-Ukrainian media, the meeting with Vladimir Putin was much more revealing. Like Ukraine, which has wanted to insist that the grain export agreement benefits African countries, Russia has sought in recent months to reaffirm its international relations with countries on the continent. With its exports of fertilizers blocked, Moscow has insisted on its willingness to deliver the shipments detained in the European Union free of charge to African countries, to which it has also offered grain on favorable terms. And in purely symbolic terms, It is also representative that Russia has recently returned the name of Patrice Lumumba to the University of Friendship of Peoples, center of internationalism and instruction of students from third world countries during Soviet times. The university had lost the name of the Congolese anti-colonial leader in the 1990s.

In Saint Petersburg, Vladimir Putin wanted to insist on Ukraine's willingness not to give up on negotiations. The rejection of kyiv and its partners to any negotiation is so strong that it allows Moscow to present itself as the party willing to deal with the different peace plans despite the fact that they all contain problematic points for Russia. But beyond showing his appreciation for the balanced position of the African countries, the Russian president wanted to take advantage of the occasion to, in front of various heads of state and government, give the Russian version of what happened in April 2022.

Vladimir Putin, who denounced that kyiv and its partners "threw into the dustbin of history" the agreement reached in April 2022, even showed the agreed document. Under the title "Agreement on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine", the text contained, according to the Russian president, all kinds of aspects related to the armed forces, including the units of combat equipment or number of soldiers that Ukraine would be authorized. to dispose In exchange for giving up NATO, kyiv would obtain security guarantees from Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, China, France, Belarus and Turkey. According to Vladimir Putin, the Russian withdrawal from kyiv was due to this agreement. However, always from the Russian point of view, Ukraine and its partners would have opted to withdraw from the agreement instead of fulfilling their commitments.

The contradictions between the positions of the two countries and the dynamics of the war now make it even more difficult to reach any agreement, especially when one of the parties has prohibited all political negotiations by decree. Hence, in the short term, at least while the Ukrainian counter-offensive is underway, no breakthrough on the diplomatic front is to be expected. However, the African proposal contains a series of ideas that, in the medium or long term, should be taken into account. The plan of the group of countries headed by South Africa not only refers to peace between Russia and Ukraine but, like the one presented by Beijing, seeks a change in international relations. The proposal contains, according to what was published by the Russian press, ten points, among which are not only the sovereignty of states,

Achieve peace through diplomacy and through negotiations.
Peace negotiations must start as soon as possible.
De-escalated by both parties.
Guarantee of sovereignty of all states and peoples in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
Security guarantees for all countries.
Guarantees from both countries for the circulation of grain and fertilizers.
Humanitarian assistance for war victims.
Resolution of the question of the exchange of prisoners of war and the return of the children.
Post-war reconstruction and assistance to war victims.
Increased cooperation with African countries.

Showing initiative and seeking a greater role in international relations, African countries have presented a plan that not only seeks to collaborate to achieve peace in Europe, but also seeks a future of trade and cooperation in which Africa is taken into account as an active subject and participant in international relations. The African proposal is a first step in that direction. However, the dynamics of the battle and the interest of Ukraine and its Western partners in continuing the war make any peace proposal unfeasible, especially those that do not come from countries whose approach completely coincides with Kiev's demands.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/06/19/27542/#more-27542

Google Translator

**************

Ukraine Violated Peace Agreement Approved in Turkey, Putin Reveals
JUNE 19, 2023

Image
President Vladimir Putin assuring that Russia is willing to reach a peace agreement. Photo: Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel.

Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed during an African leaders meeting in St. Petersburg that Russian forces had withdrawn from Kiev and other regions of Ukraine last year in compliance with a peace agreement reached in Turkey, as part of an African mediation mission to Russia.

However, during the meeting with the members of the African delegation, who were entrusted with presenting an initiative to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, Putin informed them that Kiev had declined to sign the pact following the voluntary departure of Russian troops.

The Russian head of state presented the document negotiated by both sides, entitled “The Treaty of Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees for Ukraine.”

He explained that Moscow and Kiev initially accepted a draft agreement in the spring of 2022 in Istanbul, in which China, Russia, the United States, France and Turkey acted as guarantors.

At the time, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a visit to Ukraine, various media outlets, including those in Russia, swiftly linked his trip to Volodymyr Zelensky’s refusal to endorse the agreement.

Media outlets such as Foreign Affairs attested to Johnson’s efforts to thwart the deal for two reasons he believed to be valid: First, it is not possible to negotiate with Putin, and second, the West is not prepared for an end to the war.

According to the Responsible Statecraft, Saturday’s release of this document casts doubt on Ukrainian narratives regarding Russia’s defeat in the Battle of Kiev in the spring of last year and its withdrawal from the surrounding area.

In particular, it serves to underscore how Ukraine is being sacrificed as part of a calculated maneuver in the Western proxy war against Russia, further solidifying the notion of Ukraine’s sacrificial role.

The food crisis not caused by Russia

In the same context, the Russian President stressed that the food crisis in the world market was caused by the actions of Western countries, not by the special military operation in Ukraine, as in fact it started long before the armed conflict.

Putin expressed his country’s readiness to establish a constructive dialogue with those who want peace, and praised the balanced approach of the African delegation’s mediators to the conflict.

The African mission visiting Russia includes four presidents: South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, Senegal’s Macky Sall, Zambia’s Hakende Hichilema and the Comoros’ Ghazali Osmani, also the rotating chairman of the African Union. There are also representatives from Congo-Brazzaville, Uganda and Egypt.

https://orinocotribune.com/ukraine-viol ... n-reveals/

******

Will the German concern Rheinmetall be able to provide the APU with shells?
June 19, 2023
Rybar

Image

The German defense company Rheinmetall is going to conclude a deal with the German government in July for the supply of 35-mm shells for the Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft gun - up to 60 thousand units this year.

Earlier we wrote that in solving this problem, Rheinmetall may face a shortage of rare earth metals, noble gases, as well as problems in the field of energy supply.

What is the situation at the enterprise today?
According to General Director of Production Armin Papperger, Rheinmetall managed to "close most of the bottlenecks" and now the concern has the necessary resources, including electronic parts, steel and gunpowder.

According to the FY 2022 report , the situation is indeed improving: Rheinmetall managed to increase its financial performance (sales, profit) to record highs. It can be assumed that the concern managed to solve some of the problems in a few months solely due to the increased demand for its products.

However, defense production also receives financial support from the German authorities in the form of substantial discounts on natural gas and electricity, and from outside investors.

It will not be possible to name these investors with absolute certainty, since Rheinmetall is not financed in the form of loans, but through the issuance of bonds. The lender is always a specific legal entity, but there can be several buyers of bonds, and the owner of the enterprise is not a separate bank, but an unnamed pool of securities holders.

It is difficult to trace the ultimate beneficiary through the underlay companies and trusts, but be aware that Rheinmetall bonds are not traded on the open market. Accordingly, only specific companies can get access to them, and even in large volumes: random actors who have not received approval from above cannot be there.

In addition, Rheinmetall manages to cut costs at the expense of its employees: they complain that after the interview, the employer does not comply with salary agreements. The outflow of personnel, which began last year , continues and leads to turnover and a shortage of qualified specialists.

Image

What's next for Rheinmetall?
In the financial report, the operating free cash flow column attracts attention , the indicator of which decreased by 600 million euros compared to the previous year and went negative. This suggests that at the moment the company's expenses greatly exceed current income.

Most likely, now the money comes only for products produced in small pre-war volumes, but the Rheinmetall management budgets for a multiple increase in production and purchases materials, raw materials and electricity in large volumes.

In general, such a set of measures may prove to be quite effective for the production of a limited range of products such as shells and low-tech weapons.

However, in order to maintain the pace of production at a high level, the German defense industry will have to sacrifice research and development. And this, in turn, can play into the hands of the globalist elites.

It is possible that in the near future, the American authorities will offer the Germans to transfer high-tech production lines to the USA : on the one hand, this will allow Rheinmetall not to be distracted from forging shells, on the other hand, the scientific industry will be preserved and new jobs will appear. As a result, Rheinmetall's development potential will be greatly reduced, and the most promising part of Rheinmetall's production will be under the control of the Americans.

Image

Rybar

https://rybar.ru/smozhet-li-nemeczkij-k ... naryadami/

**********

Tactical Nuclear Weapons: latest news from Russia

What I am about to say is surely known and under analysis in the American intelligence agencies. It is being used by the Pentagon to quietly change its nuclear force posture in Europe. However, we hear not a word about it in the media, not in mainstream, and not yet in alternative news.

I maintain that it is very important for it to be heard and reflected upon by the general public in the United States and in Europe, disagreeable though it may be at the start of a new week. So here goes…

Last Friday when I published my selective account of the Q&A session with President Vladimir Putin at the culmination point of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum I omitted one important issue: how Russia will respond to the dispatch of “Ukrainian” F-16s from some air base in a NATO country into the war zone in Ukraine. I was considering remedying that oversight on Saturday morning when a comment from one reader forced my hand. She wrote in that Italy’s daily newspaper La Repubblica quoted Putin as saying on Friday Russia will destroy such a base in response. I responded on Saturday in the Comments section that the Russian President had in fact been evasive in his comment, saying only that Russia could destroy such a base and was now taking the issue under advisement.

However, yesterday evening’s edition of the Vladimir Solovyov talk show indicates that the Republicca reporter was closer to the truth than I. A patient and knowledgeable Russian colonel in retirement who is a frequent guest on the talk show explained that the Kremlin is now considering exactly with what means to destroy such a NATO air base, not whether to do it. And the likely means will be use of tactical nuclear weapons on a Ramstein or whatever NATO base is involved. We may say that Germany is placing itself in the bulls-eye of any escalation in the Ukraine war if it proceeds with the F-16s to Ukraine program.

Why all the fuss over the F-16s, you may ask. After all, Putin has said loud and clear that Russia will destroy the F-16s in the air just as it has been destroying the Leopard tanks and America’s Bradley armored personnel carriers while pushing back the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive. To understand better, we have to thank the good colonel once again. He alerted us to an important detail that you will not find mentioned in The New York Times: the first F-16s scheduled to be supplied to the Ukrainian Air Force are from Belgium and Denmark, and are all nuclear-capable, which is not a necessary feature of these planes. Since the Russians are unable to determine what kind of munitions the “Ukrainian” F-16s will actually be delivering to the war zone, they must assume that they are carrying tactical nuclear bombs intended to be dropped on the Russian Army troop concentrations. The effect of such an attack could be devastating, hence the Russian threat to the air bases from which such planes are launched.

The next important revelation made during the Solovyov show came with respect to the first delivery of tactical nuclear weapons to Minsk which was marked by a visit to Belarus and interview with Lukashenko by the co-host of the Sixty Minutes news and discussion show Olga Skabeyeva. In answer to her question about where the nuclear warheads are being stored, Lukashenko said ‘everywhere.’ The meaning of this was kindly deciphered for us laymen by the colonel in retirement on the Solovyov program: this signifies a cardinal shift in the Russian handling of tactical nuclear arms away from their traditional separation of the warheads kept in a central storage far from the delivery carriers to the method used by the U.S. military with respect to its tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. The Americans, he said stored the nukes just under the jets that would be used to deliver them. Now in Belarus, the warheads will also be just next to the planes and Iskander missiles that will carry them. This means that the time to launch will depend only on the time for approval from the Boss. And with respect to that, Lukashenko told Skabeyeva that he had just to make a phone call to Vladimir Vladimirovich and approval would be instantaneous.

Why such a hair-trigger mechanism for unleashing nuclear weapons to defend Belarus? For an answer to that, go to today’s article in The Financial Times on how Poland is now preparing hundreds of Belarus fighters to go across the border and overthrow Lukashenko. To which I can only say: Warsaw, watch out! Lukashenko is one bold and decisive defender of his country, as his standing on the streets with a Kalashnikov in his hands when there were Western financed and promoted street demonstrations in Minsk aiming to overthrow him.

Still another item from the Solovyov show demanding our attention concerns what the good colonel calls the American response to the shipment of nuclear arms to Belarus: America now plans to install tactical nuclear weapons in Romania and Poland. Why, one might ask, in those two countries? For that you need only consider what the Kremlin has been saying for more than a decade about the U.S. bases set up in both countries supposedly to house anti-ballistic missile systems intended to bring down Iranian missiles fired on Europe. The Russians always objected that these installations would be dual-purpose and were a cover for placing nuclear-armed cruise missiles directed against themselves. Now if the USA indeed puts such missiles into the two countries, the Russian claims will have been vindicated and Washington is shown, yet again, to be a blatant liar on the world stage.

Finally, the colonel gave us an invaluable insight to changes in Russian thinking on tactical nuclear weapons which we otherwise missed. I have in mind Putin’s answer at the Forum to the question of whether Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine theater. Putin’s loud and clear ‘no’ was, of course, an answer to the proposals of Sergei Karaganov for preemptive and instructive nuclear strikes in his just published essay in the magazine Russia in Global Affairs. As I reported, Putin went on to say that Russia has no need to show force by some preemptive strike because everyone knows it has many more tactical weapons than the West. And while the United States has called for talks on reduction of stockpiles of such weapons, Russia will not enter into such talks, and says to the West, “fuck you,” if I may translate his rude remark in Russian into corresponding four-letter English.

That last remark brought smiles to the faces of many Russians in the audience. But it was not just theatrics, says the good colonel: in fact Russia had been talking with Americans about the possibility of reducing stockpiles, but now, in the context of the NATO proxy war it has no intention of resuming such talks.

With that I end today’s survey of our dismal progression on the way to Armageddon.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/06/19/ ... om-russia/

**************

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad

Image

Battle for Marinka
situation as of 13.00 on June 19, 2023

Tonight, Storm assault detachments attacked the fortified area of ​​the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of ​​the so-called "menagerie" southeast of Maryinka and established control over it , knocking out the remnants of Ukrainian formations.

For several months, Russian troops tried to occupy the "menagerie", where the Armed Forces of Ukraine set up several lines of minefields, and the approaches to it were shot from a height of 211 meters.

The position has an important tactical significance: without control over it, the advance to Pobeda and the capture of Marinka from the south was not possible. After its capture, the Russian army had the prospect of strengthening the onslaught in this area.

***

Colonelcassad
Russian oligarchs continue to try to sit on two chairs at once, so that they are not hurt by sanctions and Russian assets inside the country are not taken away.
But the chairs keep moving.

https://t.me/rt_russian/162172
Telegram
RT in Russian
Roman Abramovich demands that part of the money from the sale of Chelsea be allocated to Russian citizens affected by the conflict with Ukraine.

Otherwise, he refuses to sign a deal to transfer funds to Ukraine, writes the Daily Mail, citing sources in the British…

***

Colonelcassad

Image

Vremievsky salient
situation as of 10:00 June 19, 2023

Fighting continues on the Vremievsky salient: the intensity of hostilities has decreased compared to last week. At the moment, the enemy’s goal is to cut off the Russian defense with counter strikes and wedge between Rivnopol and Staromlynovka .

▪️Makarovka is under the fire control of Russian units: from the surrounding heights, the RF Armed Forces are conducting aimed fire at assault groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

▪️The Ukrainian formations managed to wedge 200 meters into the forest plantation between Harvest and Novodonetsk , but failed to build on the success.

▪️After the loss of Levadny and Novodarovka, Russian units took up defensive positions on the outskirts of Priyutnoye : two attacks were repulsed over the past day.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*********

FRom Slavyangrad's Telegram account:

Slavyangrad
0:43
Stoltenberg - on Ukraine's lack of a chance to join NATO and the need to defeat Russia: At the Vilnius summit and in preparation for the summit, we are not discussing sending an official invitation. We are discussing how to bring Ukraine closer to NATO. But most importantly, we all agree that the most urgent and important task now is to ensure that Ukraine becomes an independent, independent, democratic state in Europe. Because if we do not do this, if Ukraine does not win, then there is no question of NATO membership at all. We all want this war to end. But a just peace cannot mean freezing the conflict and accepting the deal dictated by Russia.

Note: well...what? The old Slavic giant didn't give up so easily?

***

Slavyangrad
1:31
Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine Michael Brodsky, comments on Ukraine's Nazi legacy, in particular in how notorious Nazis Bandera and Shukhevych are viewed as heroes by most Ukrainians today.

"Our view of such personalities as Bandera, Shukhevych and so on is very different from the view of most Ukrainians. Indeed, these people supported the ideology of Nazism"

***

Slavyangrad
❗️ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Orekhovsky section
situation as of 12.00 June 19, 2023

Fighting continues in the Zaporozhye direction . Ukrainian formations are trying to break through the Russian defensive lines and expand the "grey zone" near Pyatikhatki . In the Polozhsky sector, everything is relatively calm: the main hostilities unfolded near Orekhovo .

▪️Near Rabotino , as a result of a counterattack, Russian troops restored their lost positions south of Novodanilovka in the Shirokaya and Chubenkov beams. At the moment, oncoming battles continue.

▪️Voin DV @voin_dv reports that in the Malaya Tokmachka area, Russian troops destroyed an enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group: two BMPs were blown up by mines, and the remnants of the column were dispersed by artillery fire.

▪️Spetsnaz Archangel @rusich_army reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have again entered Pyatikhatki , which are still in the "gray zone". At night, the Ukrainian formations tried unsuccessfully to move forward, but Russian artillerymen, tankers and army aviation worked on them from the surrounding heights.

The tactics of the Ukrainian formations remain unchanged: landing in the "grey zone" and storming Russian fortified areas by large groups of poorly trained infantrymen.

***

Slavyangrad
"IDF criticizes negotiations to sell Israeli tanks
European countries": More than 200 tanks that Israel is going to sell to other countries for the first time in history are likely to end up in Ukraine

"Israel is preparing to sell Mark 2 and 3 Chariot tanks, built in the 1990s, to foreign countries in Europe. Negotiations are underway with two European countries. A security expert in Poland believes the tanks are destined for Poland and Ukraine.
"A number of countries have expressed interest in acquiring old Chariot tanks from surplus Israeli Defense Army tanks that were decommissioned years ago," the Defense Ministry said. Although these tanks are old, they can provide better survivability and firepower than the Leopard 1 and T-72M tanks.
The Israeli government may have yielded to American pressure to help Ukraine, despite its efforts to maintain stable relations with Moscow and promote a mechanism to prevent Russian-Israeli clashes in Syria."
Note: do they know what symbolism will be put on the tanks?

***

Slavyangrad
AFU soldiers refuse to fight on Leopards and take the equipment out of action

Ukrainians refuse to fight in mass on German Leopard tanks and try to put the equipment out of action in order to save their lives. This follows from a document obtained by our intelligence service, writes Dmitry Rogozin in his Telegram channel.

The fact is that the first days of the "counterattack" showed that Russian soldiers at an instinctive level try to destroy German equipment first.

"Late last night the scouts acquainted me with a curious document. It shows that the AFU is extremely concerned about the facts of mass destruction by Ukrainian tank crews of their own Leopards. In particular, in a report to his command a Ukrainian officer points out the reasons for such "defiant behavior" of his subordinates, who either put sand in the tank's engine, or put a mine under its tail and allegedly ran over it by accident... So, the document shows that Ukrainian crews of "Leopards" refuse to fight with them en masse and if they are still driven to the attack they disable their tanks in order not to be seen by Russians when they are under the gun. The reason is simple: the AFU officer points it out in the document: Russian soldiers perceive these German tanks at the level of instinct and historical memory as a primary target. They are hit by artillery and anti-tank guided missiles, the army aviation and UAVs are working on them," Rogozin writes.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces understand that to get into the Leopard means to sign their own death warrant. Apparently, the same heightened interest will be aroused by the American Abrams.

Rogozin also urged our soldiers to burn any enemy equipment, not just Leopards.

https://t.me/s/Slavyangrad
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10784
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Tue Jun 20, 2023 1:43 pm

The expectations problem
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 06/20/2023

Image

While certain countries and their leaders continue to make efforts to facilitate a negotiation that seeks a diplomatic end to the war and reduces the suffering of the civilian population on both sides of the front, Ukraine and its partners remain firm in their position against any compromise and they continue to pin all their hopes on the military effort of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Washington, London, Brussels and Kiev had proposed 2023 as the year in which Ukraine definitively seized the military initiative and, putting Russian troops on the ropes, achieved a position of strength to impose the terms of a resolution to the conflict without that Moscow had arguments to counter it. On the lips of European leaders like Emmanuel Macron, It has not been a secret that the objective of the counteroffensive that has just begun should be the moment in which the future of the war will be determined. The French president has repeatedly referred to the military operation this spring-summer as the way in which kyiv would manage to place Moscow in an optimal position for future negotiations.

The movements of the last two weeks, with attacks in exactly the directions expected since the preparation of the counteroffensive was announced, show that this plan has begun. Yesterday, Hanna Malyar, Deputy Defense Minister and regular spokesperson for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, stated that the troops have released eight locations since June 4, when hostilities on the Central Zaporozhye Front actively resumed. This is a result that, although Ukraine tries to highlight it, in no way meets the expectations that had been created over the last few months, in which the triumphalism of the discourse of the absolute superiority of Western weapons over Russian equipment had fact that the Ukrainian victory was practically taken for granted. During this time, Ukrainian officials and representatives have openly and directly linked the amount of Western weaponry, not with victory against Russia, but with the speed of it. That speech now collides with a reality that, despite being foreseeable, seems to have been unexpected for the staunch defenders of Ukraine,

Following the line of analyzing only the weapons used without putting the situation in which the battle is taking place in context, The New York Times warned yesterday of the difference between the promises made to Ukraine and how they have actually materialized. Unfulfilled promises, undelivered weapons or defective or obsolete parts are now the argument chosen to justify that the Ukrainian advance is not being, for the moment, the desired one. Although Kiev's troops have made some progress, they have failed to breach the Russian defenses, a result that should not be unexpected given the circumstances and the parties to the conflict.

However, although it seems clear that, two weeks after the start of the offensive, Ukraine has not only failed to break through the first line of Russian defense but has not even reached it, there are still European media outlets that, like the EFE news agency , They note that Ukrainian troops have exceeded expectations. It is not surprising that those who demonstrate in this way are European media that report exclusively from one side of the front and generally do so using the war report provided by Ukraine as the main source.

In one of the few reports made on the other side of the front , the French channel TF1 collected the testimonies of the Russian soldiers. «His offensive has been announced for 6 months. We've had time to prepare, we're not idiots. We are constantly watching, as soon as we visualize an objective we call in the artillery, which hits everywhere”, stated one of them in a statement that is coherent both with the difference in the military potential of both countries and with the Russian preparations for an operation exactly like the one that is taking place. Last week, American media such as The New York Times Generally more honest than the Europeans, they took up the Ukrainian complaint that they were meeting with great resistance from Russian troops. The success of Kherson, where the Russian troops did not even fight to hold the city, and especially in Kharkov, where the poor preparation and lack of anticipation of an offensive that the Russian command should have been able to foresee, had led the command to believe so much Ukrainian as well as the Kiev-friendly press that the trends that manifested themselves last autumn were not only going to be repeated, but could in no way be reversed.

In an article that seeks to justify the current strategy of continuing the war as the only way to resolve the conflict, the think-tank CEPA explained yesterday why kyiv has not achieved now what it did then: surprise the Russian troops, seize the initiative and recover a significant amount of territory. The article admits that, at that time, the Russian troops were overextended, unable with the number of troops available to them at the time, to maintain an excessively long front that they had not anticipated. Russia understood in Kharkov that its military group had to increase in order to contain the front, something that was achieved in the Lugansk region at the cost of casualties and, at that time, against forecasts. The articles that, like the one in CEPA, now explain that the situation last autumn could have seemed like a mirage that did not fully reflect reality, fail to justify why, if the Ukrainian superiority was so high then,

Yesterday, Russian sources began to talk about Russian offensive actions precisely in that area of ​​the front, a first attempt at active defense that, for the moment, cannot be described as offensive, not even local. However, in the case of one of the apparently most vulnerable points, since the surrounding forests help to overcome the open field problems that Ukraine suffers in Zaporozhie, the current situation reflects that, in this sector, Kiev's troops have lost the initiative which they acquired with the Kharkov blitzkrieg .

The images of destroyed Western equipment, undoubtedly the most sought after by the command and the Russian press, not only seek to reflect a certain image of the front. With them, Russia can affirm with graphic evidence that the invincibility of Western equipment is nothing more than a propaganda slogan, an important element to maintain the confidence of its troops and its population, a security that increases proportionally with the time that Ukraine spends without achieve any truly relevant tactical success. Yesterday, the Kiev military authorities admitted that the situation in the east is “difficult”, a euphemism that, given the usual Ukrainian triumphalism, is significant.

It is also true that organizations such as CEPA now admit the difficulty of Ukraine in carrying out a land offensive against a well-armed army with fortified positions lacking air superiority. Despite the ridicule that Russian aviation has suffered in the past, the learning curve that this war has entailed has forced the Western media to admit the success of preparing this aspect. Last week, the media heaped praise on the Ka-52s, going so far as to claim that "the Ukrainian cavalry has a problem with Russian helicopter gunships."

War reports always tend to underestimate their own casualties and exaggerate someone else's, so the Russian figures should not be considered realistic in terms of the huge casualties Ukraine is claiming to be suffering. However, the media have also admitted these high losses, generally stating that Russia suffers even more casualties. Military logic implies that the attacking side generally has to suffer higher casualties than the defending side, which is why Ukraine is now in the situation that Russia was in a few weeks ago in Artyomovsk or was in for most of last year.

Ukraine's difficulties are worrisome enough that even Ukrainian outlets like The Kyiv Independent publish a report by the Institute for the Study of War , one of the most important establishment think-tanks.US, claiming that Ukraine may be pausing its counter-offensive to reassess tactics. This explains why the Kiev troops have halted a large part of their advances - which were actually scarce - and a broader offensive is not expected over the next week. The war can change easily and the distances on the southern front are limited, so a local rupture can be a serious logistical problem, but, for the moment, it has not happened. For the moment, the logic of Russian artillery and air superiority prevails, which together with the preparation of the defense and a better use of drones for surveillance and attack, have allowed Russia to show a defensive effectiveness greater than that desired by Ukraine. and their partners, who are resigned to the need to plan the war in the long term.

The hope that the current offensive could inflict a final blow on Russia seems to be dissipating and even some think-tanks warn of something obvious: the current war cannot be compared with those waged by NATO in the last decades. STRAIN, for example, now claims that "Ukraine is trying to do what no NATO country has done since the alliance was created in 1949: conduct a combined arms operations maneuver against an equal or nearly equal adversary", something evident from the beginning, but which seems to be surprising right now in view of the surprise by the resilience of the Russian troops. Giving Ukrainian troops an exaggerated credit given that Ukraine has obtained military assistance from its partners roughly equal to the annual military budget of the Russian Federation, CEPA insists that "the only time NATO members faced a large-scale ground campaign against a conventional - albeit much weaker - adversary was during Operation Iraqi Freedom, when they had complete air superiority. The difficulties Ukraine was going to face in its southern offensive were obvious. However, the need to maintain the triumphalist discourse to justify the continuation of the flow of arms to kyiv made a rational argument that would introduce these nuances impossible. Now, the reality of the front prevails over the discourse and not only the weapons but also the preparation of the defense and attack come into play.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/06/20/el-pr ... more-27550

Google Translator

*******

Chronicle of the special military operation for June 19, 2023
June 20, 2023

In the Zaporozhye direction , fierce fighting continues in the Pyatikhatki area , which change hands, but are now under the control of the RF Armed Forces. At the same time, Ukrainian formations launched an attack near Malaya Tokmachka .

In addition, near Marinka , the Russian Armed Forces took the important fortified area "Zverinets" on the way to the village of Pobeda , knocking out the Armed Forces of Ukraine from there. Artillery is actively working on the enemy.

Meanwhile, the territories of the Russian Federation are being actively shelled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine throughout the day. Settlements in the Kursk , Belgorod and Kherson regions were noticeably affected. The DPR was subjected to heavy shelling , where 20 people were injured under enemy fire, and a girl born in 2016 was blown up by a mine.

Image

The situation on the front line and the fighting
The situation in the border regions remains stably tense. Ukrainian formations do not make any attempts to penetrate the border, however, they are actively shelling settlements from the Russian side with cannon and rocket artillery.

In the Starobelsk direction near Kremennaya , a local offensive of the Russian Armed Forces began. 76 DShD pushed the enemy back from the forward positions, inflicting artillery strikes. Positional battles are going on in the area of ​​Belogorovka and Novoselovka .

In the Soledar direction, the activity of hostilities is lower than in other sectors of the front, although the enemy is attempting attacks in the Orekhovo-Vasilevka area . According to some information, the Russian Armed Forces lost one of their positions in the landings between Orekhovo- and Dubovo-Vasilevka.

Image
In the Donetsk direction, fighting continues in the vicinity of Maryinka . At night, the Storm assault detachments attacked the fortified area of ​​the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of ​​the so-called "menagerie" southeast of Maryinka and established control over it, knocking out the remnants of Ukrainian formations.

For several months, Russian troops tried to occupy the "menagerie", where the Armed Forces of Ukraine set up several lines of minefields, and the approaches to it were shot from a height of 211 meters.

The position has an important tactical significance: without control over it, the advance to Pobeda and the capture of Marinka from the south was not possible. After its capture, the Russian army had the prospect of strengthening the onslaught in this area.

Image
Fighting continues on the Vremievsky ledge : the intensity of hostilities has decreased compared to last week. At the moment, the enemy’s goal is to cut off the Russian defense with counter strikes and wedge between Rivnopol and Staromlynovka .

Makarovka is under the fire control of Russian units: from the surrounding heights, the RF Armed Forces are conducting aimed fire at assault groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Ukrainian formations managed to wedge 200 meters into the forest plantation between Harvest and Novodonetsk , but failed to build on the success.

After the loss of Levadnoye and Novodarovka, Russian units took up defensive positions on the outskirts of Priyutnoye: two attacks were repulsed over the past day.

Image
Fierce fighting continues in the Zaporozhye direction . Ukrainian formations are trying to break through Russian defensive lines and expand the "grey zone" near Pyatikhatki , which regularly change hands. Now the village is under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. In the Polozhsky sector, everything is relatively calm: the main hostilities unfolded near Orekhovo .

Near Rabotino, Russian troops recovered their lost positions south of Novodanilovka in the Shirokaya and Chubenkov ravines as a result of a counterattack . At the moment, oncoming battles continue.

A warrior of the Far East reports that in the Malaya Tokmachka region , Russian troops destroyed an enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group: two infantry fighting vehicles were blown up by mines, and the remnants of the column were scattered by artillery fire.

The archangel of the special forces reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine again entered Pyatikhatki, which are still in the "gray zone". At night, the Ukrainian formations tried unsuccessfully to move forward, but Russian artillerymen, tankers and army aviation worked on them from the surrounding heights. Later, there were reports of another occupation of the settlement by the Russian army.

The tactics of the Ukrainian formations remain unchanged: landing in the "grey zone" and storming Russian fortified areas by large groups of poorly trained infantrymen.

Image
The destruction of the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station in the Kherson region gave the Ukrainian formations an opportunity to buy time for additional preparations and destroy minefields both in the Kakhovka reservoir , and downstream of the Dnieper .

Attempts are continuing to infiltrate small sabotage groups through the gray zone on the islands. After the destruction of the dam, more than 10 such attempts were recorded in total - all of them were stopped, the enemy was scattered by artillery fire and heavy machine guns.

Such actions serve the purpose of opening up the defensive formations of the RF Armed Forces and keeping our troops on their toes while a strike is being prepared in another sector. In Nikolaev and Odessa, under the leadership of Western advisers, plans are being worked out for an offensive deep into the Kherson region. According to Russian troops, strikes could be carried out on the Kinburn Peninsula and upstream of the Dnieper to the northeast of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station .

Before the offensive, the Ukrainian formations plan to inflict massive strikes on warehouses and rear facilities, both in the Kherson region and Crimea.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

Image
Ukrainian formations once again fired on Tyotkino and Popovo-Lezhachi in the Kursk region. Outbuildings and several cars were damaged. Part of the village of Popovo-Lezhachi is de-energized.

In addition, the village of Glushkovo was subjected to artillery strikes . According to Mash, several shops, bank buildings and art schools were damaged in the village. Shrapnel wounds were received by two local residents. A 67-year-old woman and a 72-year-old man were hit by shrapnel.

Image
At the same time, Ukrainian formations massively fired on the border Valuysky urban district in the Belgorod region. Residential buildings, outbuildings and cars were damaged. Seven civilians were injured, including a child.

Later, several more settlements, Grafovka , Demidovka and the Balki farm, came under massive shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine . In addition, the villages of Sobolevka , Repyahovka and Poroz came under enemy fire during the day , and an unknown UAV with striking elements was shot down in Novaya Tavolzhanka .

Image
In addition, Ukrainian formations shelled the cities of the Donetsk People's Republic throughout the day . As a result of the strikes on Volnovakha , two civilians died, one of them was a six-year-old girl. About 20 people were injured.

Image
Ukrainian formations continue terror against the population of the Kherson region . During the night, the enemy shelled both Kakhovka, Radensk, Novaya Zburyevka, Krynki and Sagi. About 40 shells fell on the territory of the settlements already affected by the flooding during indiscriminate shelling.

Political events
On the supply of Western weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine

According to The New York Times, Ukrainian authorities paid more than $800 million for Western weapons that either never arrived or were unfit for combat. Journalists believe that about 30 percent of Ukrainian equipment is constantly being repaired.

At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted that the alliance needed to quickly restore the arsenals that had thinned after deliveries to Ukraine.

On Ukraine's accession to NATO

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated that Ukraine will not receive an invitation to join the North Atlantic Alliance at the upcoming summit in Vilnius, which will be held in July. At the same time, the Secretary General announced the decisions that could be taken at the meeting: a plan for multi-year military supplies to Ukraine, the creation of the Ukraine-NATO Council and others.

On the situation with the captured Transcarpathian Hungarians

The Ukrainian side demands that diplomats be allowed to see 11 Transcarpathian Hungarians released from Russian captivity , who were handed over to Hungary. Those were captured while participating in hostilities on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukrainian diplomats complain that those released are allegedly restricted from accessing third parties and information. They interpret this as holding prisoners of war who were taken out of Russia without the knowledge of the authorities in Kyiv. At the same time, the Hungarian authorities ignore requests from Ukraine.

The press secretary of the European Commission for Foreign Affairs Peter Stano , in turn, said that the Hungarian authorities should explain their role in the liberation of the Transcarpathian Hungarians who served in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

********

Why is Britain so set on escalating the war in Ukraine?

Tanks, depleted uranium shells, long-range missiles, F16s: hardly a week goes by without some news of how Britain is upping the ante again.
Proletarian writers

Saturday 17 June 2023

Image
The deeper the economic crisis bites, the more desperately the ruling class is throwing everything it can into military confrontation. Only through victory in war will it stand a chance of keeping its failing system alive for another generation. The world’s masses owe it to their children to make sure that such a victory is never achieved.

The recent announcement that Rishi Sunak’s government would be providing first depleted uranium shells to Ukraine and then Storm Shadow long-range missiles represent two of the latest of examples of the British government’s consistent and active efforts to escalate the war in Ukraine. It is doing so with zero concern for the lives of British workers and even less for those of Ukrainians.

Reckless and criminal escalation
This was demonstrated very clearly when the Ukrainian military stored the aforementioned depleted uranium shells in a large ammunition depot near the town of Khmelnitsky. When Russian armed forces blew up this arms store, a cloud of radiation was dispersed across the town, posing both immediate and long-term health risks to everyone resident or present in the area.

Not for nothing did the Russian foreign ministry warn the Sunak government not to provide such weapons to its Ukrainian proxies. Russian armed forces are not using such weapons in Ukraine themselves, knowing well the health risks they pose.

Russia had previously warned very strongly against the use of such weapons: “If Kiev is supplied with such shells for Nato heavy military equipment, we will consider this as the use of dirty nuclear bombs against Russia with all the ensuing consequences,” a statement said. (Russia warns Britain against supplying Ukraine with depleted uranium shells, Donbass Insider, 22 March 2022)

The cancer epidemics in parts of Serbia and Iraq following Nato’s widespread use of depleted uranium munitions there are just two of the many war crimes perpetrated by British and US forces in their wars of plunder that are carefully ignored by British and US establishment politicians, journalists, lawyers and scientists.

How far across Ukraine and neighbouring countries this radiation and its effects might spread is at this time unknown. Nor can we yet know how Ukraine’s food exports will be affected. In all likelihood, no meaningful effort will be made to find out by our self-identifying ‘defenders of human rights’.

Sanctions war has failed
These latest reckless escalations by British imperialism come hard on the heels of bitter admissions carried in the Spectator and the Telegraph that the “shock and awe” sanctions war that was supposed to “reduce the rouble to rubble”, in the words of US president Joe Biden, has been an abject failure. The aggressive western wagers of this economic war had confidently expected to bring about the collapse of the Russian economy, triggering either a mass uprising by a hungry and unemployed populace or some other political crisis that could result in the long dreamt-of regime change in Moscow.

But, owing to the preparations the Russian government has been making since 2014, the severity of the sanctions regime has been mitigated both by increased state intervention in the Russian economy and by redirecting the country’s trade flows eastwards – in particular to China, Iran and India. The workers and economies that are being destroyed by the sanctions are not those of Russia but of the west, most specifically those of the European Union and Britain, where residents and industry alike have been suddenly cut off from the cheap and reliable flow of Russian oil and gas on which they have depended for decades.

Now, having failed to defeat the Russians either economically or militarily, the imperialists are getting desperate.

The aim of the war in Ukraine, from the perspective of US imperialism, is to destabilise Russia itself and, ultimately, to secure regime change (ie, the installation of a client regime in place of an independent one) and, ideally, the fragmentation of the country. This is all in order that the USA and its junior partners in Europe can seize full, unrestricted control of Russia’s immense natural resources.

With the global overproduction crisis deepening every day, the contradictions of the imperialist economic system are becoming ever more apparent. US imperialism, mired in a mountain of bad debt, has reached the point where it is not only seeing long-term stagnation at home but is also losing control over markets overseas that it has long sought to dominate by means of its economic, technological and military might.

Meanwhile, African nations are increasingly trading with China and turning to Russia for energy and security partnerships, thus further deepening the contradictions faced by US imperialism and forcing it down the road of trying to remove both the Putin-led government in Moscow and the Communist party (CPC) in China. The removal of these two rival centres of power, which are working increasingly closely together, is necessary for US imperialism if it is going to succeed in ‘solving’ its crisis via the ruination of its opponents and the destruction of the opportunities for independent development that they are offering to the oppressed countries via Brics, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) etc.

Decline and decay of British imperialism
British imperialism, likewise mired in crisis and tied hand and foot to the US imperialist bandwagon, is equally desperate for these plans to be brought to fruition, hence its reckless escalation of the war in Ukraine by supplying long-range missiles and depleted uranium munitions. The British ruling class has played a subservient role to US imperialism since at least 1956, when it failed to win its war to bring down Abdul Nasser’s anti-imperialist pan-Arabist Egypt.

The decay of British imperialism actually has its origins ever earlier than this. In fact, even at the highest point of the development of British capitalism, the seeds of its own terminal crisis had already been sown. As Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels pointed out in Capital Volume 2, there is a tendency inherent within the system for capitalists not only to maximise profitability at all costs but to actually cut out commodity production altogether if they possibly can.

“The process of production appears merely as an unavoidable intermediate link, as a necessary evil for the sake of money-making. All nations with a capitalist mode of production are therefore seized periodically by a feverish attempt to make money without the intervention of the process of production.” (Chapter 1, 1885)

Marx identified a tendency that would be explored and fleshed out by VI Lenin in his work Imperialism the Highest Stage of Capitalism. Written in 1916, at the height of the first world war, Lenin’s examination of the development of imperialism included an analysis of the ongoing deindustrialisation of Britain. He showed how the development of imperialism was linked to the declining profitability of commodity production for the home market in Britain in the latter part of the 19th century.

At this point, British capitalists were able to realise far greater profits by exporting their capital to the colonised nations, where resources and land were cheaper and where labour could be exploited in a far more profitable fashion (ie, with even greater brutality). This brought the British ruling class into conflict with other imperialist powers, mainly the newly unified Germany. The competition for markets, resources and hyper-exploitable sources of labour led (ultimately) to the mass slaughter of World War 1.

As a result of the war, however, the British ruling class was much weakened, and it ultimately failed to restore its position as the overwhelmingly dominant power in the world, partly because it had heavily indebted itself to the rising power of US imperialism during the course of the war.

It was only after World War 2 though that the crisis of British imperialism was fully realised. Britain began to lose control of its colonial possessions (starting with India) and faced the reality of having to depend upon US imperialism for economic and military support both for reconstruction at home and for exploitation of the oppressed nations abroad.

A faction within the British ruling class tried to resist this subordination to the USA, but it was decisively defeated in 1956, partly due to the anti-imperialist struggles of the Egyptians and also because the US ruling class would not tolerate what it regarded as its British junior partner operating without its consent. Following the Suez debacle, the British ruling class realised it had little choice but to fall in line behind the USA if it wished to continue to operate in the markets it still dominated abroad, even after being forced to give up direct control of most of its empire.

In order to maintain their profits, Britain’s financiers need to be able to move capital anywhere in the world. They require all barriers to this to be knocked down, and, since WW2, the USA is the only imperialist country with the global economic and military power to be able to do this. The state of British imperialism is one of profound and multiple crises: it has undergone a longer decay and is much more vulnerable than the USA is.

The fortunes of the imperialist powers ultimately rest on convincing the oppressed and developing nations of the world that they have to accept the terms dictated by countries like Britain if they want to escape being put under an economic siege or subjected to military attack.

Anti-imperialist bloc cutting the ground from beneath the imperialists’ feet
Today, the economic fortunes of British imperialism are entirely tied to US economic and military power. The British ruling class has been cutting its own armed forces down for many years now, so it depends ever more heavily upon the USA to facilitate the ability of British finance capital to keep on plundering the world.

The British state may spend a large amount of defence, but it does not maintain the kind of forces that would be capable of taking on the Russian or Chinese armies for more than a few days. What Britain’s armed forces have specialised in since their failure in the Iraq war is in waging wars by proxy, training and directing jihadists in Libya, mercenaries in Yemen and fascists in Ukraine to do the heavy lifting while they remain in the shadows – advising, directing and facilitating.

If Nato’s fascistic Banderite forces in Ukraine lose their war with the Russian Federation, which they show every sign of doing in the near future, this will be a defeat for US imperialism of an even greater magnitude than its humiliating retreat from Afghanistan in 2021. Many nations that are currently dominated by British and US imperialism will see the defeat of the Nato-aligned forces in Ukraine as being a clear sign that the US-led imperialist bloc has been fatally weakened.

This in turn will undermine British imperialism’s ability to continue to exploit countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia. If US imperialism decays or collapses entirely, the British ruling class will be fatally weakened as well, not only in terms of the markets and resources it seeks to control overseas, but also in its ability to contain the class contradictions within Britain society itself.

This is why the British ruling class is desperate to secure the destruction of the Russian and Chinese governments. Because British imperialism needs to ransack huge areas of the world if it is to try and resolve the deep crisis in which it is enmeshed, and the anti-imperialist governments of Russia and China are standing in the way of that goal.

That is how we must understand Sunak’s declaration at the recent G7 meeting in Hiroshima that China is “the biggest challenge of our age to global security and prosperity”.

Of course, Sunak was referring solely to the ‘security and prosperity’ of the class he represents – the class of billionaire owners of capital. All that will come to the majority of the world’s workers from the strengthening of our exploiters is the prolongation of the existence of the system that keeps them immiserated, condemned for another generation and more to the miseries of unemployment, poverty, crisis and war.

Those of us who oppose British capitalism at home must learn this lesson: that there can be no victory over capitalism at home without also destroying British imperialism’s ability to loot abroad. Only with the departure of this parasitic system can the British working class advance in solidarity with the workers of the world to a bright and fulfilling future.

https://thecommunists.org/2023/06/17/ne ... d-uranium/

*******

Russia Continues to Inflict Casualties on NATO-Trained Soldiers

Image
Russian paratroopers land on the Donetsk front. | Photo: Twitter/ @Circonscripti18

Published 19 June 2023

"From the Anglo-Saxon elite's perspective, Ukrainians are cannon fodder who can be used without hesitation," SVR Director said.

In an interview published in the newspaper Rossíiskaya Gazeta on Monday, Sergei Naryshkin, the director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), claimed that the defensive capabilities of Ukraine are being severely diminished by the Russian army.

"The death of a considerable number of NATO-trained soldiers and the destruction of foreign military equipment will undermine the Ukrainian Army's combat effectiveness," he said, adding that this will have an impact on the stability of President Volodymyr Zelensky's regime.

The SVR chief added that the United States and the United Kingdom are willing to turn Ukraine into Europe's "the black hole" in order to "prevent its rapprochement" with Russia.

"From the Anglo-Saxon elite's perspective, Ukrainians are cannon fodder who can be used without hesitation to save the valuable lives of American and British soldiers."

"When Ukrainians are gone, Poles will come, and then probably Germans. This may sound extremely cynical, but this is precisely the logic of the strategic plans of Washington and London," he pointed out.


In its war report on Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry once again emphasized the high number of Ukrainian casualties.

In the southern sector of the Donetsk front, Russian troops destroyed over 100 Ukrainian soldiers, three tanks, 10 infantry fighting vehicles, 14 armored vehicles, two self-propelled artillery pieces (Gvozdika), and D-20, D-30, and Msta-B howitzers.

In the northern sector of the Donetsk front, the Russian Army caused over 340 Ukrainian casualties and destroyed several armored vehicles and artillery pieces.

In the Kharkiv region, Ukrainians suffered around 45 casualties, in Luhansk 105 casualties, and in the Kherson region over 40 casualties.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Rus ... -0008.html

**********

Image

“Red-Brown alliance” smear is used to attack both Russia’s military operation, & the united front against NATO

BY RAINER SHEA
JUNE 18, 2023

In our time of liberal fascism, where the Biden administration is indicting communists for doing anti-imperialist work while trying to use the RESTRICT act to codify this practice, the main “Red-Brown alliance” is the one between the liberal fascists and the “Marxists” who tail them. Our equivalents of the Strasserites, the element of socialists who allied with the Nazis, are largely the liberal tailists who claim to be “Marxists” while volunteering to be Democratic Party discourse agents. There are still the types who are right opportunists, yet they lack the kind of narrative power that the left opportunists have.

The left opportunists have chosen the side within our partisan divide that’s more able to blunt class consciousness, because the majority of Americans are not reactionaries and are therefore more susceptible to the ideas put forth by the liberals. Ideas like the one that in order to prevent fascism, we have to vote blue, support our “democratic institutions” such as the intelligence agencies, and hate Russia (which within the liberal narrative is inseparably associated with the American right).

The fallacy of this lesser evil argument is that the liberal side is a lot more evil than its apologists will ever want to admit. We’re seeing a version of fascism being developed by the liberals, under the guise of defending from “foreign interference” and “protecting our democracy.” Russiagate, a psyop that’s ongoing, is about creating a dichotomy between the fascists and the good side, when in reality this “good side” fundamentally represents the same type of social system the other one does. The logical conclusion of this narrative is that if anybody fights against the militarist, corporate brand of politics the Democrats have come to even more aggressively embrace during the last decade, they should be seen as on the side of the fascists.

When you pay attention to the types of people and organizations that these liberal tailist “Marxists” or “progressives” attack, you see that this McCarthyist campaign under the guise of social justice is what they consistently advance. It doesn’t matter if they claim to oppose the Democratic Party, this is the impact that their sectarian actions have. An example of this is when the supposedly radical Black Agenda Report tried to discredit the Rage Against the War Machine rally and coalition. As the organizer Jamie Gray has pointed out in his rebuttal to BAR’s polemic, the reasoning behind it was driven by an emotional reaction, not by a serious analysis of what we need to do to win the class war:

Mao united with the anti-communist KMT to defeat the Japanese. Did Mao (the famous communist) become an anti-communist in so doing?…So if someone hasn’t been there from day one they’re not trustworthy? Have you considered that maybe subjective conditions of the human consciousness have a delayed response to the objective conditions of reality? That is, things have been bad for Black Americans for a long time, nobody disagrees with this, but now that whites are also beginning to wake up to the evils of this bloody empire, you’re suddenly going to push them away? Have fun losing…Come to the rally and talk to these people. Interview them. Do what Fred Hampton’s Rainbow Coalition would’ve done. Figure out if they’re really this insane caricature you make them out to be. The Russian Revolution was carried out by a working class that had just years prior being doing anti-semitic pogroms, but the Bolsheviks found ways to rally them up and turn them against such backwards racists ideas.

These sectarians could reply by claiming that this alliance between the different tendencies of the anti-NATO movement is equivalent not to the alliances Mao or the Bolsheviks built, but to the one the Strasserites built. When you truly investigate the nature of this alliance, do you honestly find something that reflects this characterization though? You do not, because the sectarians have an interest in portraying this situation as greatly different from how it actually is.

Those seeking to discredit this anti-NATO coalition repeat the “Red-Brown alliance” accusation as a reflex, yet when you honestly examine the character of the coalition’s most right-oriented participants, you don’t find any Browns, as in fascists. At the most you find bourgeois or pro-bourgeois forces, like the Libertarians, that are distinct from fascists. It would be dishonest to call them fascists, the differences between these two things matter. The impulse to equate them comes from the same anti-Marxist place as when imperialism-compatible leftists call Russia a fascist state. By the standard they’re using, every bourgeois state is fascist, which isn’t a serious way of analyzing conditions. That’s why the attempts to discredit the idea of a united front against NATO, and the attempts to discredit Russia’s military effort at defying U.S. hegemony, are so comparable.

When one is arguing against Russia’s action in Ukraine from a “communist” angle, they have to reckon with how it was Russia’s communists who led the effort at pressuring Putin into acting in Ukraine. The CPRF began warning after the 2014 coup that if the Russian government didn’t handle the situation properly, tragedy would come. And tragedy did come in the form of Ukraine’s shelling of the Donbass, most of which would have been prevented if Putin hadn’t waited eight years to start dismantling Ukraine’s military. It was the ideas of the communists, not the ones of Putin or of those to his right, that ultimately brought Russia to work towards eliminating the Nazi threat. This is evident from how Russia’s fascists have not gained more state power amid the war, but have instead become more marginal within the government. It’s the communists who’ve gotten more ideological influence as Russia has looked for guidance on how to fulfill its anti-fascist task.

And in the arena where it matters, that being the arena of demilitarization, Russia has succeeded in its task. It’s made Ukraine’s military too exhausted to mathematically be able to achieve its strategic goals, making the Ukrainian side’s only reliable long-term fighters the Nazi terrorist cells. Which aren’t capable of winning back Ukraine’s lost territories, and certainly not of reversing the damage Russia’s operation has done to U.S. influence.

This is what actually comes from an alliance between communists and the national bourgeoisie to combat a situation’s primary contradiction, that contradiction in this case being U.S. hegemony: history is successfully brought to a new stage of progress. Operation Z has made Banderism’s victory impossible while weakening imperial power, and the imperial center’s united anti-NATO front has exposed the broad masses to anti-imperialist ideas. The front has done so with the Rage Against the War Machine rally, which gained mainstream media attention (as well as provoked alarmed efforts from the liberal establishment to discredit it). The front’s next steps are to expand its coalition, bring its ideas to more of the people, and (as far as its left flank is concerned) use this anti-NATO shift in mass consciousness to grow the revolutionary organizations.

These past and future achievements of the front wouldn’t be possible if we communists were to isolate ourselves from the other anti-NATO elements, if we were to assume we could build a relationship with the people while not using the great platforms that these elements have. The platform of the Libertarians, and of the supposedly MAGA communist group Midwestern Marx, are capable of reaching a significant amount of the people, and we shouldn’t disregard this. Lenin warned about the folly of the “left” revolutionaries who did this in regard to refusing to work within reactionary trade unions, and his reasoning is applicable to our task of fighting U.S. hegemony. The actors who seek to convince us it’s not applicable care not about winning, but about gatekeeping.

Upon seeing any serious opportunity for bringing the hegemon to defeat, they make connections to fascism that aren’t there, trying to link the communists who take this opportunity to political forces which aren’t even helping with the effort. We’ve seen this in the attempts to tie Russian mercenaries to neo-Nazis, when the case for that idea has rested upon social media hoaxes amplified by groups like NAFO. Don’t trust these manipulators, trust serious analyses of our conditions.

https://newswiththeory.com/red-brown-al ... inst-nato/

Careful with them libertarians Shea.....an anti-war alliance, fine. But that's as far as it should go.Remember, these people value property above human life.

********

From the Telegram account of Slavyangrad:

Slavyangrad
Ukrainian “Insider” TG Channel considers the personnel cost of the counteroink. Simpy horrifying.

The Russians' current defensive tactics have been dubbed the “steel blade" because of the huge losses the AFU is taking due to their attempts to push through the Russians' defense, paying for it all with the blood of their soldiers.

The AFU has not yet faced such losses in this war, which are dozens of times higher than those of previous offensive campaigns.

Experts predict that the AFU will lose between 50,000 and 100,000 manpower to approach only either Vasilievka or Tokmak in the Zaporozhye region.

If Kiev demands greater results, the losses will amount to more than 150 thousand soldiers, which will be a huge blow to the morale of the army and society.

Losses in equipment are predicted at 50% of those already handed over by the West.

Zelensky is faced with a dilemma: To create an illusion for the West, selling 20-30 villages as a success, or to go for broke and drown his army in blood, hoping that the Russians will cower and run [GB: an impossibility].

GB: For consideration, the attached maps illustrates the possible Ukrainian paths to Vasilievka and Tokmak through Russian fortifications. Both of these cities are not even halfway to Melitopol and nowhere close to Berdyansk and the Azov coast. I would say 50k to reach either Vasilievka or Tokmak is quite optimistic (100k is closer to reality) and to reach both, 2-3 times that number casualties will be incurred. Anything further into the Russian territory is very quickly being shown to be a pipe dream.

***

Slavyangrad
The Low-Key CounterGrowl (Part I):

There is now some indication of the developing Russian strategy in response to the bogged down Ukrainian counteroink.

As expected, the Russian Army cannot at this time, yet, (and will not) conduct large-scale offensive operations—certainly not until the counteroink fizzles out entirely (and even then, without additional mobilization, a large offensive operation is unlikely).

Nonetheless, exploiting the fact that the Ukrainian failure in Zaporozhye is drawing increasingly greater reserves of the enemy, straining its ability to maneuver its forces and deploy additional troops in other operational theatres, the Russian Army has gone on counterattack in three separate places, while maintaining defence and tying up key Ukrainian corps in the south.

This began, it appears, with the attack by the newly formed Storm-Z units south of Maryinka, where they took a key old (Andy aptly-named) Ukrainian stronghold of Zverinets (Animal Farm or Zoo), bringing the crack Russian troops within striking distance of Novomikhailovka, Pobeda, and even Konstantinovka. This is a key juncture, as cutting of enemy communications here puts what remains of Ukrainian positions in Maryinka and, in particular, in Ugledar and along the line to Konstantinovka in a very precarious position.

This effort has now been compounded by the Russian offensive operation west of Kremennaya, in the direction of Torskoye and Yampol.

Finally, we have unconfirmed report of significant movement from the Sinkovka frontline toward Kupyansk.

If so, then the strategy is starting to take shape: The chosen directions were all very problematic for the Russian Army, as the units deployed in all these sectors had not done much by way of forward movement in months. Perhaps, the Russian command counted on Ukrainians relaxing their posture in these areas, as they expected that the same low-quality Russian efforts would continue, with the best Russian troops devoted to repelling the counteroink in Zaporozhye. This may be exactly the feint that the Ukrainians missed.

At least south of Maryinka (and possibly in each of the other directions), crack troops (including the new specially-trained Storm Z units) have been introduced, that appear to be operating more successfully than anything we had seen from the Russian Army in these areas for a while.

If I were to guess, I would not be surprised by a flash attack through Ugledar, north along the path ti Konstantinovka and Novomikhailovka, as shown in the last map. Were something like this to succeed, a key thorn in the Russian side would be eliminated, the frontline would be evened out, and Maryinka fall would then be predetermined.

All of this is very preliminary and is based on nothing more than a hunch. Continuing to observe the battlefield.

https://t.me/s/Slavyangrad
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10784
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:56 pm

U.S. Admits Defeat In War On Russia And China

Confronted with the realities of life the Biden administration has in the last days acknowledged defeat in two on its most egregious and delusional foreign policy games.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed. Its army is getting slaughtered on the battlefield. The 'counteroffensive' of the 'NATO trained' Ukrainian brigades has made no real progress on any front. The high level of losses of men and material make it impossible that it will ever again regain the initiative.

The U.S. aim was to integrate the Ukraine into NATO. It would then have been able to station U.S. troops in Ukraine and to put its weapons into reach of Moscow so that any independent Russian move could be countered with a threat of imminent annihilation.

After more than 20 years of pursuing that aim the U.S. threw the towel:

President Biden on Saturday said he won’t make it easier for Ukraine to join NATO, adding that the country at war with Russia has to meet the requirements to be a member.
“They got to meet the same standards. So, I’m not going to make it easier,” Biden told reporters. “I think they’ve done everything relating to demonstrating the ability to coordinate militarily, but there’s a whole issue of is their system secure? Is it noncorrupt? Does it meet all the standards … every other nation in NATO does.”


And yes, that is a change. A big one:

Biden has reportedly previously expressed that he is open to removing the Member Action Plan hurdle for Ukraine to join NATO, which requires countries that want to join the alliance make reforms militarily and democratically.

Still, it is not enough:

Biden has not said anything new. Biden senses that the US lost the proxy war but he must not and cannot admit it. So, in the absence of a time machine, which could have taken him all the way back to 1999 when the NATO’s expansion began unfolding, Biden simply walked back to the default position of the 2008 NATO Summit at Bucharest welcoming Ukraine into the alliance via the MAP route — as if that moment fifteen years ago is now the past and cannot be pulled back to the present. Russia is not going to accept it.

Though packaged in nice words the European Union gave Ukraine a similar negative outlook (machine translation):

An EU report on Ukraine's membership bid states that Kiev has so far met two of the seven conditions required to start formal EU accession negotiations.
...
"There is progress. The report will be moderately positive. This is not about embellishing reality, but about recognizing progress, for example, there are well-known anti-corruption cases. In particular, in the case of the head of the Supreme Court Knyazev," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
...
“In terms of reforms, the glass would be half full, we would never take a negative tone towards Ukraine at the moment. Judicial reforms have made some progress, although there are still key ones that need to be carried out. Not everything is satisfactory.”


The much hyped counter-offensive has indeed become a death trap for the U.S. EU and NATO.

The other U.S. defeat was acknowledged by U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at the end of his trip to Bejing:

The United States will not support Taiwan breaking away from China, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has said, amid a series of confusing statements by Joe Biden on the issue.
'We do not support Taiwan independence,' America's top diplomat said in Beijing after meeting with Chinese president Xi Jingping.


This was more than a verbal change in Blinken's pronouncements:

The US State Department has updated its fact sheet on Taiwan again to reinstate a line about not supporting formal independence for the Chinese-claimed, democratically governed island.
...
“We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence; and we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means,” according to the document, referring to the strait separating the island from the Asian mainland.
Last month, the State Department changed its website on Taiwan, removing wording both on not supporting Taiwan independence and on acknowledging Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China, which angered Beijing.


Blinken's change of heart came after an extremely short meeting with President Xi which had followed a series of lectures by other high ranking Chinese officials:

Wang gave a comprehensive explanation of the historical logic and inevitable trend of China's development and rejuvenation, and elaborated on the distinctive features of Chinese modernization and the rich substance of China's whole-process people's democracy.

He urged the U.S. side not to project onto China the assumption that a strong country is bound to seek hegemony and not to misjudge China with the beaten path of traditional Western powers. "This is key to whether the United States can truly return to an objective and rational policy toward China."

Wang demanded that the United States stop playing up the so-called "China threat", lift illegal unilateral sanctions against China, stop suppressing China's scientific and technological advances, and do not wantonly interfere in China's internal affairs.

He stressed that safeguarding national unity has always been the core of China's core interests. It is where the future of the Chinese nation lies and the abiding historical mission of the CPC.

On the Taiwan question, China has no room for compromise or concession, Wang said.


The Chinese language readout of the Blinken-Wang meetings is reportedly even more scornful than its English translation.

The next step for China is to stop the provocative 'innocent passage' drive-bys by U.S. military ships and airplanes in the Taiwan Straits. To do that it simply has to apply the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea:

Article 38
Right of transit passage
1. In straits referred to in article 37, all ships and aircraft enjoy the right of transit passage, which shall not be impeded; except that, if the strait is formed by an island of a State bordering the strait and its mainland, transit passage shall not apply if there exists seaward of the island a route through the high seas or through an exclusive economic zone of similar convenience with respect to navigational and hydrographical characteristics.


A view on a map shows that this evidently applies to the strait between mainland China and the Chinese island named Taiwan.

Image

If the U.S. really has a One China policy it will have to accept that the Strait is off limits.

This double whammy of defeat in its wars on Russia and China will take some time to stick.

In the Ukraine conflict there are still dreams of creating some kind of stalemate, of implementing some kind of a Korean cease-fire demarcation line on the 38th parallel:

U.S. officials are planning for the growing possibility that the Russia-Ukraine war will turn into a frozen conflict that lasts many years — perhaps decades — and joins the ranks of similar lengthy face-offs in the Korean peninsula, South Asia and beyond.
The options discussed within the Biden administration for a long-term “freeze” include where to set potential lines that Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross, but which would not have to be official borders. The discussions — while provisional — have taken place across various U.S. agencies and in the White House.


Russia wont have any of that. It will thoroughly defeat the Ukrainian army. It will retake the parts of Ukraine which for centuries had been Russian before the communists assigned those administratively to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.

The rest of a then neutral Ukraine, cut off from the sea and the mineral riches of the east, will be handed over to the underling that Russia is willing to accept.

The double defeat in its wars against the 'rest of the world' marks the end of the Wolfowitz doctrine:

The doctrine announces the U.S.'s status as the world's only remaining superpower following the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War and proclaims its main objective to be retaining that status.
Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.


The end of 'unilateral moment' is there for anyone to see.

The Republicans will of course loudly blame Biden for this even though they are just as guilty of overreach as the other side of the isle. Biden may well have to sacrifice Blinken as the pawn guilty of losing the game.

Anyway, neither will help him to get reelected.

It is, by the way, not just a coincident that Israel, on the same day of the U.S. admission of defeat, got whacked by fighters of the Palestinian resistance. This another of those U.S. sponsored global problems that China is eager to solve.

Posted by b on June 20, 2023 at 9:42 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/06/u ... .html#more

Easy on the schnapps, Bernhardt. It ain't over yet, and though they squander men and material like it's other people's money(it is!) they still got something like half (or more) of that vaunted 'strategic reserve' un-suicided. The 'pinch-penny' deployment, scattered all along the line will in retrospect prove to be a grave mistake. At this point even if the Ukes punch a hole in the first serious line of defense they won't have much left to exploit with.

You don't hear about Russian tank formations of the battalion/regiment size. Seems like the tanks in play are those attached to mechanized infantry. I suspect they are being held back for a devastating counter-attack(Kursk!). And they could serve as a 'fire-brigade' in the unlikely chance that something goes sideways on the front line.

***************

JUNE 19, 2023 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Biden walks back on Ukraine’s Nato accession

Image
The US President Joe Biden (R) met NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at the White House, Washington, June 13, 2023

If only the US President Joe Biden had a time machine as in the post-apocalyptic science fiction novella by H. G. Wells, he should have used that vehicle or device to travel purposely and selectively backward through time all the way to 1999 when it was that the US lost the plot on European security and Russia’s perennial quest for mutual security with Europe.

At that defining moment of the post-cold war era 24 years ago, George Kennan was prophetic to warn the Bill Clinton administration that US-Russia relations would be irreparably damaged if the western alliance expanded to include the former Warsaw Pact countries. His advice was ignored. It is generally accepted today that the war in Ukraine is the culmination of the NATO’s relentless advance to the borders of Russia.

Russia’s 2021 draft titled Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation would require that NATO members commit to no further enlargement of the alliance, including in particular to Ukraine, and the related issues concerning the alliance’s deployments, which impacted Russia’s core security issues.

A second draft addressed to Washington was titled Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees. Taken together, the two drafts represented an opening bid by Moscow for serious negotiations but it led to no engagement since the Biden administration simply stonewalled that the US and Russia cannot cut a deal over the heads of Europeans and Ukrainians!

As the National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan famously said, “nothing about you [Ukraine] without you.” It was a lame excuse, for the Kiev regime installed in power through the US-backed unconstitutional, armed and bloody coup in Ukraine in 2014, was a mere tool of Washington.

The Biden administration thought it was cornering Moscow and setting a bear trap as Russia was damned either way — whether it passively accepted the reality of NATO presence right at its doorstep, or chose to resist through coercive means. When Russia’s special military operation began in February 2022, Strobe Talbott who was the mastermind in the Bill Clinton administration pushing through the doctrine of NATO’s eastward expansion into the former Warsaw Pact territories, tweeted congratulating the Biden Team for cornering the Russians!

Several US analysts triumphantly wrote that Russia was going to be bogged down in a quagmire with dire consequences to the country’s regime and its very existence. The western narrative gained ascendancy for a while. The rest is history.

However, in one of the great turnarounds of history in modern times, Moscow eventually prevailed in the battlefields decisively and irreversibly.

Against such a historical backdrop, Biden’s remark on Saturday that the US is “not going to make it easy” for Ukraine to join the NATO can only be seen as a retrogressive journey into the past. Biden underscored that Ukraine will be required to meet the “same standards” as any other member of the bloc, implying that Ukraine must conform to the so-called Membership Action Plan or MAP, which requires a candidate nation to make military and democratic reforms, with NATO’s advice and assistance, before a determination of membership can be made.

The MAP process can take years. Macedonia took 21 years. Biden’s remark is not only a signal to Kiev but comes at a time when there is a groundswell of opinion within the alliance that Europe and the US must provide Ukraine clear-cut NATO security guarantees, which is important for the future of European security.

In fact, Biden spoke only 4 days after meeting with Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary-general, at the White House last Tuesday, where, reportedly, the latter sought to simplify the accession process for Ukraine on the plea that Kiev had already made significant progress toward membership.

What prompted Biden to take a hard line? Poland’s President Andrzej Duda declared, in the run-up to his talks in Paris on June 12 with France’s President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Weimar Triangle format, that Ukraine would like to have “a very concrete perspective … of joining the North Atlantic Alliance.” Duda hoped that the NATO summit in Vilnius will “send a positive message to Kiev, …that Ukraine’s future membership in NATO is clearly visible.”

Apparently, there was consensus amongst the Weimar Triangle members also that Ukraine should receive security guarantees. Scholz declared: “It is evident that we need something like this, and we need it in a very concrete form.” Macron endorsed, calling for a rapid agreement on “tangible and credible security guarantees.”

Indeed, there have been threatening noises too that if there is no concretisation on Ukraine’s membership in Vilnius, some of the “hardcore” allies may take things into their own hands, and the renegade undertaking – at the national level –- could also include stationing of troops from NATO members in Ukraine.

Now, Biden has ignored these demands from Old and New Europeans. He is confident he can shift the goal post. Maybe, Macron and Scholz are only playing to the gallery? We may never know.

The heart of the matter is that Biden realises that the ongoing Ukrainian offensive is heading for a train crash and the decimation of Kiev’s remaining army. It is uncertain how long Kiev will be able to recruit enough soldiers. The two figures whom Washington had groomed for precisely the sort of Plan B in Kiev that it needs now — commander of the armed forces Gen. Valeri Zaluzhny and spy chief Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov — are out of reckoning, having been put out of action summarily by recent Russian missile strikes.

Don’t rule out an insurrection in Ukraine if war deaths become unsustainable for the society. Biden also sees that there is continuously shrinking approval in America for his war policy, which could possibly endanger his re-election. Biden pointed out to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky during his last visit to Kiev that the funds that Washington could provide were limited. And CIA chief William Burns separately left a message with Zelensky that continued American military assistance beyond July is problematic.

Suffice to say, if Putin’s harsh remarks last week (on Tuesday and Friday) are anything to go by, the Kremlin leadership has zero trust or confidence in Biden or his European allies. Meanwhile, the plain truth is, 90 percent of Ukraine’s resource base lies in regions under Russian control. Which means that the rump state is going to be a huge drain on US resources, while Russia is showing no signs of exhaustion.

Biden has not said anything new. Biden senses that the US lost the proxy war but he must not and cannot admit it. So, in the absence of a time machine, which could have taken him all the way back to 1999 when the NATO’s expansion began unfolding, Biden simply walked back to the default position of the 2008 NATO Summit at Bucharest welcoming Ukraine into the alliance via the MAP route — as if that moment fifteen years ago is now the past and cannot be pulled back to the present. Russia is not going to accept it.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/biden-w ... accession/

***********

Time Is Running Out Both for Zelensky and NATO. Operation ‘Meat Grinder’ Needs to Start

Martin Jay

June 20, 2023

Few if any western pundits ask themselves “if it’s going well, then why the immediate demand of NATO membership? Where’s the crisis?”

Can NATO expect to survive its policy on blinded dogma escalation in the longer term or face a period of decline, even expiration? Seems far-fetched? Not when you examine the timeline of the past two years and you observe the direction this war machine business empire conglomerate is heading under the leadership of Washington.

At Vilnius we are expected to believe that despite the summer offensive going well for Ukraine’s army – which is a lie perpetuated by western media – that Ukraine should be given full NATO membership. The hysteria which can be seen in the eyes of Zelensky who is calling for this is palatable. But few if any western pundits ask themselves “if it’s going well, then why the immediate demand of NATO membership? Where’s the crisis?”.

The real reason for Zelensky demanding this, as well as Eastern European countries talking about putting their own soldiers on the ground, simply, amounts to the same conclusion. The war is not going well at all for the Ukrainian army which, even by the kindest, conservative estimation, has lost at least 150,000 men. Retired U.S. generals who are in touch with military observers on the ground put this figure as high as 250,000 as the Ukrainian media operation in Kiev obviously doesn’t provide any serious data on the subject. Zelensky’s problem is two-fold. He has announced to the world that he is about to start a summer offensive, which didn’t get off to such a bad start – it punched a hole in the Maginot Line which Russia has laid complete with mines – and took a few villages. Good video handout fodder for the call centre journalists in Ukraine who take their orders from the Kiev media office which controls where they can go and what they can report on. But the minor detail of what they are not reporting is the real story.

The Ukrainian army is so understaffed, under-resourced and its men so woefully undertrained that the rate and speed of its losing military hardware is frightening. Brigades are going into battles in armoured vehicles with support from artillery and are getting wiped out at a remarkable speed. In just one day, according to one report, 16 Bradley armoured personal carriers were either hit and burned, or just abandoned by Ukrainian forces. For Pentagon officials mulling over their intelligence reports, this should be worrying given that this one loss represents a quarter of all the Bradleys given to the Ukrainians. It is this rapidity of material losses which is worrying Zelensky and western elites. They look at the data and when they see minuscule token victories, like the villages recently taken, they do not celebrate. They simply look at the losses and do the maths.

How much longer can the Ukrainian army exist? Zelensky knows only too well that he needs at least 2-300,000 more men and the tanks, armoured personal carriers to go with them to make any impact at all. He, along with NATO bosses, also knows that if you sit back from enemy lines and do nothing, as each day passes, your credibility wanes, especially if you have just announced to the world that you’re about to start a massive offensive.

This is really was the next NATO summit is all about. How to send Zelensky much, much more kit, but also the men to go with it. There is really not too many options. Either sending troops from eastern European countries who will not be protected by Article 5 of NATO as it will have to be clearly stated that they are going there not under a NATO mandate. Good luck expecting the Russian military to respect such nonsense. Alternatively, you look at the possibility of creating groups of mercenaries made up of retired soldiers from NATO countries. Western media is failing us here wholesale when it fails to report on unconfirmed reports of plans by Washington to oversee a program which allows a private defence contractor to recruit retired U.S. air force pilots to fly in Ukraine. This is the latest hair brain idea which is set to escalate the war further and push NATO deeper into the hole it has dug – and continues to dig – itself.

When a new NATO chief takes over in October, almost certainly to be Ben Wallace of the UK who has shown remarkable sycophancy towards Biden and the war racket (the only qualification which is important for the job) he may well find the credibility and standing of NATO at an all-time low as the war stakes are cranked even higher. The problem that NATO and Zelensky have can be summed up in one word. Time. They don’t have time on their side as the war machine in Ukraine, which not one citizen of any western country has been consulted on, will be cranked up to a new level, which will make the 130 bn dollars which the U.S. has put in so far look like chicken feed.

NATO is moving to a new level and preparing the western world through very well-crafted media work, for a new war with higher stakes and bigger causalities. Unfortunately, due to the very low numbers of both men and equipment, the only way forward is with the existing NATO hardware which member states have, rather than surplus equipment it may donate. The stocks are at rock bottom now for most major components used in the war, so dangerously low that many NATO countries don’t have the equipment to send any more and they don’t have it ready on the production line either.

So, rather than grandiose talk of a ‘summer offensive’ what we have instead is a summer lull. And this could stay like this for at least 6 to 12 months before even the trickle feed of equipment can start again. Don’t be fooled by the talk of F16s. If European NATO members are to donate them, we are looking at very, very low numbers perhaps a couple from Belgium’s outdated airframes of only 20; perhaps one from the Netherlands’ more modern fleet of 40. But the training, which we are told could be as little as three months, is, in reality closer to nine if both air-to-air and air-to-ground disciplines are bundled.

Zelensky and Western Elites who claim to support him know that time is running out. For them a solution is a quick one. And the only quick one is how to find 100,000 soldiers for the Ukrainian meat grinder soon. Expect an ‘attack’ on a nuclear power plant within Ukraine days before the NATO Summit with, of course, Russia blamed by western media with articles all sourcing Zelensky himself as the chief, unbiased expert. We are now are the point where false flag attacks is the only strategy left or to push his 12 brigades of old men (around 50,000 reserve soldiers) towards the trap which Russia has laid for them. It is one thing to break through the minefields laid along the front line; it is quite another to retreat through the same track.

https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023 ... -to-start/

********

The situation in the Zaporozhye direction by June 20, 2023
June 20, 13:52

Image

The situation in the Zaporozhye direction by June 20, 2023

Indeed, the battle for Pyatikhatki added turbulence to the situation. The settlement, which turned out to be insufficiently fortified, albeit with battles, was nevertheless abandoned by the Russian troops. However, the next day after the withdrawal, after waiting for the enemy to enter the village and settle down, the artillery of the RF Armed Forces delivered a massive blow. But, according to our information, at the moment Pyatikhatki still remain under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Definitely, this episode is important from the point of view of the dynamics of the development of the situation in the Zaporozhye direction. But why is this inhabitant so significant? Many of our readers have a well-founded question - what is the point in holding Pyatikhatki if the village is in a lowland (in a tactically disadvantageous position), falling into the fire control zone? The roads leading from the village are also quite densely shot through.

Despite its not very advantageous position, in relation to the dominant heights, Pyatikhatki is, just the same, control of the road. An important junction in logistical terms, the retention of which opens up a maneuver for further advancement.

We assumed that from the positions of the village the enemy could deliver a flank attack on the units concentrated in the Kamensky direction with access to the Dnieper. However, it is now becoming more and more obvious that the likely vector for the movement of Ukrainian units is the southern direction to Zherebyanki. To the south of Pyatikhatki, our units are on the heights, having the support of artillery, therefore, with a small reservation, we can assume that leaving the village was justified from the point of view of the plan to draw the enemy into the population, in order to then roll it with artillery. If such a plan, of course, was, and the blow did not turn out to be a necessary measure - according to the principle of "hitting the tails."

At the same time, it must be stated that, trying to cling to Pyatikhatki, the enemy suffered significant losses in equipment and infantry: the 128th mountain assault brigade was seriously battered. Therefore, it will be possible to speak about the possible development of the offensive in this sector only after the enemy has brought up new reserves.

From the direction of Orekhov and Novodanilovka, the enemy continued to advance in the direction of Rabotino, however, at the moment there is no need to talk about significant progress in this sector.

https://telegra.ph/Obstanovka-na-linii- ... -XAM-06-20 - zinc

PS. In addition:

1. By the afternoon of June 20, the fighting in Pyatikhatki continued again, which is confirmed by both sides.
2. Shoigu reported that from June 4 to June 20, the enemy did not achieve success in the Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Yuzhnodonetsk directions.
3. In the last 2 days, articles have been actively published in the Western press that the Ukrainian offensive has bogged down.

The broadcast of hostilities continues as usual in the telegram https://t.me/boris_rozhin - if you are interested, subscribe

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8435560.html

Google Translator

************

From the Telegraph account of Cassad:

Colonelcassad

Image

Night strikes by the RF Armed Forces on targets in Zaporizhia

Tonight, the RF Armed Forces carried out strikes with Geran-2 kamikaze drones on targets in the territories controlled by the Kiev regime. Most explosions took place in Zaporozhye.

One of the targets was the territory of the Zaporozhye titanium and magnesium plant . On satellite images, the object looks abandoned and is quite suitable for the placement of equipment or other military equipment.

Also, kamikaze drones flew to the Zaporozhognepor plant, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces ammunition depot was supposedly located. Another object hit was the Two Moons Hotel. According to preliminary data, the personnel of the enemy were stationed there. Object

coordinates :
47.890666, 35.197070
47.885835, 35.173992
47.807651, 35.243782

In addition to Zaporozhye, the RF Armed Forces also struck targets in Kiev, Khmelnitsky and Lvov: in the latter, sources indicate a hit on the building of the SBU, although it is difficult to confirm this information.

📌Despite the unsubstantiated statements of the Kyiv authorities, the enemy's air defense could not repel the raid. In justification, the speaker of the Ukrainian Air Force said that this was due to the lack of air defense systems, which the Armed Forces pulled to the front line.

This indirectly confirms the large-scale transfer of anti-aircraft systems to the line of contact in order to "catch" Russian aircraft. Where these air defense systems, however, become the prey of Lancets and other precision-guided munitions.

***

forwarded from
military chronicle
How the “Surovikin Line” works in Ukraine: analysis of the military chronicle

Since June 4, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched 263 attacks on the positions of Russian troops as part of the counteroffensive that has begun. All attacks were repulsed, but few people understand why the offensive of the Ukrainian army failed at its highest point.

What is the Surovikin Line?

It's defensivea system whose first contour is dozens of fortified firing lines, including extensive minefields and engineering barriers. This line was built for almost eight months and goes into the depth of defense for several tens of kilometers. It relies on a developed transport and logistics network with hubs and rear bases. At the same time, short logistics routes allow the RF Armed Forces to quickly transfer reserves from one sector to another without compromising combat readiness at the front. Simply put, wherever it is required to strengthen fire capabilities, this can be organized without withdrawing troops from another sector of the front.

What is its feature?

The network of defensive lines is “supported” by a powerful grouping of cannon and rocket artillery and airborne forces, as well as Ka-52 army aviation helicopters and attack aircraft with FAB-250/500 bombs equipped with planning and correction modules. In the event of a breakthrough of a group with APU equipment at one of the firing lines, aviation is able to support ground troops and act as a “carousel”: while helicopters are working on ground targets, attack aircraft and bombers go to the point of use of weapons, after hitting the target, helicopters again engage in battle, and then the situation repeats. At the same time, strikes on the rear of the advancing AFU grouping in Orekhovo and Velikaya Novosyolka show that there is practically nothing to cover the offensive of the APU - short-range and medium-range air defense systems are either withdrawn to the deep rear, or are used very limitedly on the front line.

What is "elastic defense" and how does it work?

Judging by the dynamics of the offensive, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine probably relied on a quick breakthrough and turning the battle into a maneuverable one. For this, a series of strikes was planned throughout the LBS, including the main one and several distractions. These strikes were opposed by a combination of the tactics of the so-called elastic defense and artillery grouping, reinforced by means of observation and fire adjustment. It is clearly seen that "on the ground" the RF Armed Forces are still operating with relatively small forces, and the maneuverable element in the mass (operational and tactical reserves) has not yet joined the battle. On the example of Pyatikhatki in Zaporozhye or Neskuchny in the South-Donetsk direction, it is clearly seen that Russian troops do not cling to every centimeter of the defensive line in the event of a breakthrough of individual groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and, if necessary, retreat to a reserve position. After the retreat, the enemy is covered by artillery at previously known coordinates, after which a counterattack follows and the position returns to the control of the defenders. Judging by the fact that two weeks after the start of the offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to suffer losses from artillery, their reconnaissance and counter-battery capabilities are ineffective or insufficient.

What is the result?

For more than two weeks of the Ukrainian offensive, the advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is recorded exclusively in the gray zone - that is, in territories that were not previously determined as the main lines of defense. The Armed Forces of Ukraine fail to fully capture these areas - every attempt to gain a foothold and expand the bridgehead leads to artillery strikes and air raids, after which the Ukrainian troops have to retreat back and regroup for a new strike.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

***********

From the Telegram account of Slavyangrad:

Slavyangrad
lim SOSRA (US), as SOS -> 0 = RA (UA), expressed as the CounterOink singularity. The function quickly approaches infinity in personnel losses at coordinates (x = Pyatikhatki, y = Rabotino).
By popular demand, an explanation of the limit operation presented yesterday:

"Suppress, obscure, secure, reduce, and assault (SOSRA) are the breaching fundamentals being applied to ensure success when breaching against a defending enemy," as per US military doctrine.

Ukraine (UA), in its application of SOSRA in the counteroink, has entirely omitted SOS, to wit, “suppress, obscure, secure,” partly because of the lack of air force and air defences, and partly—because of the inherent nature of the politically-driven counteroink operation.

As SOS, therefore, approaches 0 (zero, nil, nada), the function SOSRAUS approaches the function RAUA, which is expressed in its ultimate form as the vertical singularity of the counteroink.

At the coordinates of Z (Pyatikhatki, Rabotino), the counteroink yields infinite personnel and equipment losses on the Ukrainian side.

Next time, on Fun with Math and Guts, we will perform differentiation and integration operations to analyze the sinusoidal nature of Ukrainian strategy (or lack thereof).

***

Regarding the quickly-drying-out Kakhovskoye Reservoir, as portrayed in the video:

Any heavy equipment will meet its end in what would become nearly-quicksand for armour and heavy vehicles.

Artillery would finish off any large columns, and the Zaporozhye mess will quickly be forgotten as a footnote in the story of the real graveyard of NATO equipment (future historians will undoubtedly be fascinated by the unlikely iron deposits at the bottom of the newly-filled Reservoir).

Company-tactical groups, special forces units, DRGs—all a possibility. On pickup trucks and all-terrain vehicles, maybe. More likely on foot, decimated by Russian drones and mortars.

Other than that? Yeah, as before, I am pretty sure that the Ukrainians are stupid and desperate enough to try something here. The inevitable logic of a failed counteroink is that it has to replicate everywhere, like a virus, to give the Ukrainian carrier carrion regime a chance to survive. But even their spectacularly failed Belgorod border raids will seem masterpiece theatre in comparison.

I just really hope they throw their Challengers this way—to watch them drown in mud.

***

Slavyangrad
NYT: Ukraine has not been delivered some of the weapons it bought, and some of the weapons donated are unusable

As of the end of 2022, Kiev had paid over 800 million dollars to arms suppliers under contracts that had not been fully or partially fulfilled.

According to a source, as of early spring 2023 hundreds of millions of dollars had been paid including to state-owned companies, for weapons that had never been delivered.

"Many of the deliveries from Western allies included advanced weapons such as American air defence systems, which have proven to be highly effective. But in other cases the West provided outdated equipment that, at best, required major repairs. Around 30 per cent of Kiev's arsenal is constantly under repair - a high figure, according to defence experts, for an army that needs all kinds of weapons," the NYT wrote.

https://t.me/s/Slavyangrad
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10784
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Wed Jun 21, 2023 12:23 pm

The decisive battles are yet to come
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 06/21/2023
Original Article: Donbass Analytical Force

Image

The military expert Boris Rozhin [Colonel Cassad] has spoken in an exclusive interview about the results that the Ukrainian offensive has achieved so far, the need for a "second wave" of mobilization, the explosion of the attack against the pipeline that transported ammonia and the possibility of freezing the conflict.

The Ukrainian offensive has clearly not started as brightly as kyiv had announced. What are the main reasons: having underestimated the Russian defenses or, conversely, has Moscow learned the lessons of the summer and autumn of 2022?

There is something of both aspects. On the one hand, even in the statements of the Western press one can see the thesis that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are defending themselves much better than the countries and the NATO armed forces expected. Images of vast amounts of equipment destroyed have been a cold shower for those who had underestimated the capabilities of the Russian military. In this sense, the strong controversy between the private military company Wagner and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has been like a cruel joke on the enemy, which has meant further underestimating parts of the Ministry of Defense on the eve of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And that has been paid for in blood.

On the other hand, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have really learned the lessons of the 2022 campaign, both from successful and unsuccessful operations. Competent preparation has made it possible to inflict heavy material and personnel losses on the enemy in the first days at the cost of only minor losses in the gray zone.

The enemy has not achieved any serious operational success during the offensive since June 4. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces still have enough reserves to try to break through the defenses at at least one of the points. So the decisive battles that will determine the outcome of the strategic defensive operation are yet to come.

How can you assess the degree of personnel saturation of the combat formations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation? Is what is said about the need for a second wave of mobilization correct?

In recent months, the number of troops in the grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine has increased, as has the density of combat formations, but from my point of view it is still not enough. In order to solve its tasks, the Russian grouping in Ukraine should be several times larger in order to achieve a numerical superiority that will allow for offensive operations and reduce the opponent's ability to use its numerical superiority in certain areas. The measures to obtain contractors, volunteers, mercenaries, or prisoners only partially solve the problem of the imbalance of troops between the two active groups. So some form of mobilization is seen as necessary and inevitable.

What does the appearance of Chinese military equipment in units stationed in Grozny mean? Are we talking about commercial purchases, or is Beijing gradually changing its stance on arms supplies to Russia, something it has rejected in the past?

China provides indirect assistance to Russia. Beijing does not have to specify anything or declare anything officially. Iran, the People's Republic of Korea and a number of other countries act in the same way. No Chinese heavy vehicles have been seen at the front and no drones have been seen either. As for the vehicles that have been seen in Grozny, it is not clear how they have appeared in Russia, but it is possible to assume that China might have been aware of the purchase of those vehicles through third countries. And as for the meaning of this assistance, it can be said that a significant part of the drones at the disposal of the Russian troops have Chinese origin. The market is completely saturated by China. And it is like this also in other products.

Virtually simultaneously with the collapse of the Kajovka dam, a Ukrainian sabotage group mined the Togliatti-Odessa pipeline for transporting ammonia. What is the meaning of this attack and, in general, of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry's obsession with this issue?

The ammonia pipeline was linked to the grain export deal. Since the parties understand that there is a 90% chance that the agreement will be canceled in July, it does not make sense to keep the ammonia pipeline intact. Russia would not have been able to use it anyway. It was not going to work in any way, but making it explode means fixing the irreversibility of the process that leads to the blocking or revision of the grain export agreement.

In other words, shouldn't the extension of the grain export agreement be expected after the kyiv escalation?

The extension of the agreement seems unlikely. Erdoğan has won the elections, so support for Erdoğan is no longer a factor. The ammonia pipe has exploded and is also out of the game. None of the Russian demands have been met. So the agreement will either be canceled entirely or revised under the Russia-Turkey agreements on new terms.

There is much talk of the possibility of freezing the conflict. Who benefits from this scenario in the short term (up to a year) and who benefits in the long term?

In the short term, freezing the conflict benefits the West, which could rearm Ukraine, recoup casualties in its army through new waves of mobilization, and resume the war at the right time. Obviously, this is not beneficial for Russia, since it does not solve any of its problems. Russia's objectives have been announced and are known: a negotiation taking into account the accession of the four new Russian regions and a non-aligned, neutral and denazified Ukraine. If a truce does not achieve those objectives, it obviously does not benefit Russia. In the current realities, there is nothing to talk about with the Ukrainian regime. The outcome of the war will be decided on the battlefield.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/06/21/las-b ... more-27556

Google Translator

Boris throws cold water on the idea of a Russian counterattack after the Uke offensive peters out. Well he is militarily pragmatic and conservative. He's also usually right. Oh well, but fortune passes everywhere.

******

AS THE PENTAGON PAPERS PROVE TRUER BY THE DAY, AIRMAN FIRST CLASS JACK TEIXEIRA ENTERS A PLEA

Image

By John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

Jack Teixeira (lead image, left), the US Air Force national guardsman arrested on espionage allegations in April, is scheduled to appear in a Boston federal court for his arraignment on the prosecution’s charges this Wednesday, June 21.

Six counts were listed in the grand jury indictment filed in court on June 15. The 10-page paper reveals new evidence contradicting the case against Teixeira which has been published in the mainstream media based on official government leaks to the Bellingcat propaganda organization and the New York Times, which are working together against Teixeira and against the intelligence disclosures attributed to him.

The new court evidence is now pointing to the likelihood that Teixeira’s access to highly classified documents prepared by the Joint Chiefs of Staff (lead image, right) at the end of February this year had been facilitated for him by senior US Air Force (USAF) officials.

If provable, Teixeira will plead not guilty and his lawyers will prepare the defence case of entrapment. If embarrassing to the Pentagon and the Justice Department, Teixeira may be offered a plea bargain of guilty in exchange for no trial of the evidence and a reduced jail sentence. The section of the Espionage Act which is the basis of Teixeira’s prosecution, 18 United States Code Section 793(e ), provides ten years in prison and a fine of $250,000 for conviction on each count. The 21-year old is facing the equivalent of a life sentence.

It is not yet known whether Teixeira, who has been ordered to remain in prison without possibility of bail release, will appear in person in court or sign a waiver. His lawyers are also not saying what plea Teixeira will enter.

According to the court case docket, the lead Boston public defender who had been representing Teixeira since his arrest, Joshua Hanye, has withdrawn from the case and been replaced by Michael Bachrach; he is a New York attorney who specializes in defending in cases involving classified intelligence materials and sources, and unlawful government tactics.

LATEST COURT FILINGS IN THE CASE DOCKET

Image
Source: https://drive.google.com/

This docket and the case number changed once the grand jury returned its indictment on June 15, and the case was then scheduled for arraignment. The new case number is 1:23-cr-10159. From Washington, the Department of Justice issued this press release last week in brief summary of the indictment.

Follow the case developments and evidence in this story so far in the Pentagon Papers archive.

The ten JCS documents comprising the first and most important part of the published leaks were reported on April 7. More detail and reproduction of some of the documents followed on April 9; click for analysis. Mikhail Podolyak, speaking for Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, announced that the documents were “part of a Russian information operation and does not reveal Kyiv’s actual operational plans. ‘Russia is looking for any way to seize the information initiative, to try to influence Ukraine’s counter-offensive plans, to introduce doubts, to compromise plans, to frighten [us] with their ‘awareness’…This is a bluff . . . this has nothing to do with Ukraine’s real plans.”

The Russian disinformation claim preceded Teixeira’s arrest by five days. The Financial Times reported the leaked documents were genuine but neither sensitive nor secret. “A western defence adviser who works with Ukraine’s army said the documents looked real, but most of the information was not sensitive and ‘could have been worked out’. The documents ‘do not say where the [Ukrainian counter]-attack would take place or when’, he said, nor do they contain information about mobile command units. The leak ‘is more embarrassing than anything’, he added.”

Image
Source: https://www.ft.com/

In the Bellingcat-New York Times version, which appeared in print on April 21, Teixeira was accused of “the exposure of some of America’s most closely guarded secrets”. The report claims the leaks had started on or about February 25, 2022, “less than 48 hours into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”, and were numerous over more than the year which followed before Teixeira’s arrest on April 13, 2023.

“How Airman Teixeira obtained the documents that he is accused of posting online has been a key question for investigators,” the Bellingcat group and the newspaper acknowledged – without providing an answer. “They believe he used administrator privileges connected to his information technology job to access documents. In his posts, Airman Teixeira said his job gave him access to material that others could not see. ‘The job I have lets me get privilege’s [sic] above most intel guys,’ he wrote.”

“It is not clear whether authorities are aware of the classified material posted on this additional Discord chat group. The newly discovered information posted on the larger chat group included details about Russian and Ukrainian casualties, activities of Moscow’s spy agencies and updates on aid being provided to Ukraine. The user claimed to be posting information from the National Security Agency, the Central Intelligence Agency and other intelligence agencies. The additional information raises questions about why authorities did not discover the leaks sooner, particularly since hundreds more people would have been able to see the posts.”

The new evidence in court, not reported so far by Bellingcat, is that the USAF did discover Teixeira was improperly making notes from classified materials he was accessing inside the unit for top secret and sensitive compartmented intelligence (SCI) , and attempting to conceal the notes in his pockets. In three separate incidents Teixeira’s superiors investigated his note-taking — on September 15, 2022; on October 25, 2022; and then on January 30, 2023.

On the first occasion, two USAF superiors confronted Teixeira and “instructed [him] to no longer take notes in any form on classified intelligence”. The second time his superiors were “made aware that A1C [Airman First Class] Teixeira was potentially ignoring the cease-and-desist order on deep diving into intelligence information”, which he had been given the month before. He was subsequently interrogated on whether he had been accessing the Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System (JWICS); this is a secure intranet system utilized by the Pentagon to store Top Secret/Sensitive Compartmented Information. What Teixeira admitted he had been doing, and why, have been blacked out in the court record. The evidence indicates Teixeira was ordered not to access the JWICS at all, and instead to “focus on his own career duties and not to seek out intelligence products”.

On January 30, a superior spotted Teixeira again “on a JWICS machine”. This was reported upwards.

The prosecutors have yet to disclose how far upwards in the USAF command these incidents and Teixeira’s breach of orders were reported, and whether the USAF, other US agencies, or the British were monitoring Teixeira’s social media intelligence claims.

An FBI affidavit in the court file records the comments Teixeira made to his chat group about the extent of his intelligence access. On November 19, 2022, he noted “I’m on JWICS weekly”. On December 6, 2022, he told his contact group — according to the FBI’s affidavit – “I’m breaking a ton of UD regs…all of the shit I’ve told you guys I’m not supposed.” When one of his contacts suggested “maybe you should start a blog, that way you have organized place to post it all”, Teixeira replied: “Shooting myself in the back of the head twice isnt something im fond of…and making a blog would be the equivalent of what chelsea manning did.”

His motive, Teixeira had written on November 19, was that “knowing what happens more than pretty much anyone else is cool,”


Image
Source: https://drive.google.com/

According to the FBI’s investigator, the “social media platform” where Teixeira posted his material had “at least three separate servers” and one of the servers “had at least 150 unique users, some of whom represented that they lived in foreign countries, and some of whom used foreign IP addresses to log on to the Social Media Platform.”

Bellingcat wrote in the New York Times that in September Teixeira had told his chat group that he “usually worked with GCHQ [Government Communications Headquarters] people when I’m looking at foreign countries.” It is clear from the court record that Teixeira did not “work” with GCHQ. However, his access to GCHQ intelligence may have been detected by the British; according to the standard intelligence-sharing practice, they may have warned their US counterpart National Security Agency, which then alerted the US Air Force commanding Teixeira’s unit and other agencies.

The counts charged against Teixeira, made public by the government for the first time last week, do not (repeat not) include the note-taking, concealment, and repeated violations of orders between September of 2022 and January of 2023. The first two of the counts refer to Teixeira’s later note-taking. The indictment alleges this amounted to “unauthorized possession…willful retention…and fail[ure] to deliver it to the officer or employee of the United States entitled to receive it”. His summaries of his notes, excerpts, and commentaries to others in the chat group amounted to his having “wilfully communicated, delivered and transmitted such information to a person or persons not entitled to receive it.”

Image
Source: https://drive.google.com/

The Bellingcat-New York Times collaboration has claimed these are “some of America’s most closely guarded secrets”. The brief descriptions provided by the prosecutors in the charge sheet indicates the information may have been kept secret from the American public, but not from the “foreign adversary” or the US company which had been successfully targeted. Information about US equipment provided to the Ukraine may not have been openly published in the US media, but was it kept secret from the US Congress, the Ukrainian regime in Kiev, or the Russians? Was the “closely guarded secret” Teixeira is now accused of pocketing, then revealing to his social media contacts information which the Biden Administration has tried to keep secret from the Congress and American voters, while publicizing information on the same topics which Administration officials have known to be false?

If defence attorney Bachrach insists on opening up these two items of classified information, and the prosecutors refuse, the counts may have to be dropped. The Department of Justice has run into this obstacle in the past when it attempted to prosecute alleged Russian election interference operations in the US. In March 2020, for example, Justice Department prosecutors announced in federal court in Washington, DC, that they were dropping their case against Yevgeny Prigozhin’s companies, Concord Management and Concord Catering, because “a trial of this case risks publicizing sensitive law enforcement information regarding measures used to investigate and protect against foreign influence over the political system”. Withdrawal of the prosecution had been forced by defence lawyers for the accused Russians who had requested proof of the evidence in the indictment. The prosecutors then admitted in court that this “forces the prosecutors to choose between a materially weaker case and the compromise of classified material”.


In analysis of cases of this kind, US government weakness can be called the Mueller precedent, after the recent Special Counsel, Robert Mueller; chief prosecutor of alleged Russian interference in the presidential election of 2016; read this. But there is a much older case of FBI investigation of espionage for the Soviet Union in which the USAF intervened to stop an open trial; that is the Ted Hall precedent.* In that case, the USAF decided its interest, and also the country’s, was better served by overruling the eagerness of the Justice Department, FBI, and the White House to demonstrate it can catch, convict, and if necessary, kill Russian agents.

In the prosecutors’ case against Teixeira, the dates given in the counts suggest that for almost the full twelve months of last year, when the indictment alleges Teixeira “improperly retained and transmitted National Defense Information”, none of it has been included on the charge sheet — not even the three series of offences Teixeira’s USAF superiors caught him committing between September 2022 and January 2023; recorded in evidence against him; and then ordered him to “cease and desist”.

Image
Source: https://drive.google.com/

On October 27, Teixeira’s superiors told him he was not to pursue any classified information of any kind, especially not “deep dives into classified intelligence information.” Instead, he was ordered to “focus on his job as a 1D.” According to the USAF specialty code manual, Teixeira’s job code 1 stands for operations; D stands for cyber security operations. This means that when Teixeira was telling his chat room contacts he was assigned to working on foreign country intelligence, especially the Ukraine war, he was boasting, not telling the truth.

Image
Source: FBI affidavit by Special Agent Luke Church, May 17, 2023. The acronym “aor” which Teixeria claims to have been his “primary” work stands for “area of responsibility”.

Alternatively, if Teixeira was telling the truth, the USAF reports already in the case file in court are untrue.

In addition to Teixeira’s note-taking, four of the counts refer to single government documents. Although there are ten JCS documents in the published versions of the Teixeira’s leaks, just two in the charges against Teixeira refer to the war in the Ukraine; they are described in counts 3 and 5. Note the dates of these alleged offences – they occurred between February and April 2023. In other words, the offences alleged by the US government represent a fraction of the Pentagon Papers which are public, and an even smaller fraction of the leaks Teixeira is reported to have carried out since January 2022.

Image

This raises fundamental questions about the case which Teixeira himself is unlikely to be able to answer; and which his lawyers led by Bachrach will not discuss with the press. The questions and answers have been covered up by the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal and other media, which have been printing the Bellingcat materials leaked by the government.

These questions direct the focus of investigation of the case on to the USAF and its commanding general, soon to be the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Charles Brown. What evidence about Teixeira’s note-taking, concealment, and his weekly access to the JWICS files did Teixeira’s superiors refer to their commanding officers, to USAF counter-intelligence and the Office of Special Investigations? How much of Teixeira’s conversations and summaries of his notes, which he posted throughout 2022, did the USAF follow? Who took the decision to let Teixeira continue accessing JWICS, take photographs of JCS papers, and then publish them? What role, if any, did the British signals interceptions of GCHQ trigger an alert, when, and did the USAF already know?

Not least of all, now that federal prosecutors have disclosed the charges, there is the question: If Teixeira is not being prosecuted for eight of the ten Pentagon Papers which have been leaked, who was responsible for them? Was Teixeira the patsy in a USAF entrapment operation?

For discussion of the entrapment evidence, read this; and for a review of the entrapment defence in US espionage cases dating back to 1923, click.

Image

[*] Theodore (Ted) Hall was 19 years old when as the youngest physicist working on the US atomic bomb project at Los Alamos in 1944, he gave Soviet agents in New York details of the first US bomb designs, the names of scientists working at Los Alamos, and the fission science they had developed. In 1951 Hall’s full name and Russian cryptonym Mlad appeared in a secret Soviet cable decrypted by the US military intelligence agency in the code-name VENONA project of the time. This is the original TOP SECRET cable decrypt translated from the Russian. The FBI then investigated Hall and proposed prosecution for espionage, with death penalty. This was blocked by the head of the USAF Office of Special Investigations, General Joseph Carroll -- not because disclosure of the VENONA code breaking would have been revealed publicly in court, but to protect the USAF’s senior missile designer at the time, Edward (Ed) Hall, Ted’s brother. The action of the USAF generals to stop the FBI and the Justice Department did not become known until 1995, when years of official lying about the Ted Hall case were exposed by Freedom of Information Act releases. The full story has summarized here. Dave Lindorff’s first article reporting the new story of the Ed Hall case appeared in January 2022; his book on the case will be published later this year. A new documentary film about Ted Hall, entitled “The Compassionate Spy”, is now screening in the US and Europe. An interview with Lindorff by Finian Cunningham can be viewed here.

When Ted Hall and his brother Ed were the FBI’s targets in 1951, Julius Rosenberg (33) and his wife Ethel (35) were prosecuted, convicted and then executed for espionage relating to the Los Alamos atomic bomb. The two Halls (Holtzberg) and the Rosenbergs were all children of Russian Jewish immigrants to the US. Jack Teixeira is the grandson of Portuguese Catholic immigrants to the US.

https://johnhelmer.net/as-the-pentagon- ... more-88197

********

Chronicle of the special military operation for June 20, 2023
June 21, 2023
Rybar

The most fierce fighting continues in the Orekhovsky section of the Zaporozhye direction, where Russian troops have withdrawn from the village of Pyatikhatki. The locality is in the " gray zone " and periodically changes hands. Today, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to attack the village of Zherebyanki from Pyatikhatki , but to no avail.

At the same time, hostilities near Kremennaya intensified , where Ukrainian paratroopers tried to break through the defensive orders of the RF Armed Forces in Serebryansky forestry to Dibrova . The enemy command is trying to keep the situation under control by inflicting massive artillery strikes, including on their own positions.

In addition, unsuccessful attacks by Ukrainian formations continue on the Vremievsky ledge.

During the night, Russian troops launched a series of strikes on targets throughout Ukraine. In the city of Zaporozhye , several military facilities were hit, including locations and an ammunition depot. In Lviv, a drone of the Geran family hit the SBU building on Vitovskogo Street. In addition, targets in Kiev and the Khmelnytsky region were hit .

Image

Night strikes on the territory of Ukraine

Image
Tonight, Russian troops launched a series of attacks with Geran-2 kamikaze drones on targets in the territories controlled by the Kyiv regime. Most explosions took place in Zaporozhye .

One of the goals was the territory of the Zaporozhye titanium and magnesium plant. On satellite images, the object looks abandoned and is quite suitable for the placement of equipment or other military equipment. Also, kamikaze drones flew over the Zaporozhognepor plant, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces ammunition depot was supposedly located. Another object hit was the Two Moons Hotel. According to preliminary data, the personnel of the enemy were stationed there.

In addition to Zaporozhye, the RF Armed Forces also struck targets in Kiev, Khmelnitsky and Lvov.

Image
In Lvov, the building of the SBU on Dmitry Vitovsky Street fell under the Geranium night attack . The shell hit the left end of the building and caused significant damage to it. The UAV hit caused a big stir among the Ukrainian security forces - the entire area around the building was promptly cordoned off. After the strike, traffic along Vitovsky Street itself was closed for an hour from 7.00 to 8.00 for cars, and until 10.30 for public transport.

About models of Russian technology in the USA

Image
Colleagues from the CIG Telegram channel published photos of models of Russian anti-aircraft missile systems filmed in the United States. Among those recorded, you can see an extremely realistic copy of the 9A331 Tor-M1, as well as the 5N63S command post and launchers from the S-300 air defense system. Our team has determined the exact location of the train: the train is moving east through the city of Portsmouth , Ohio .

The appearance of models in the USA is not surprising - they are actively supplied to Ukraine . Despite significant deliveries of air defense systems, their shortage is still felt by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which makes them an extremely valuable resource in the face of periodic attacks by the Russian army.

In addition, the Americans themselves regularly use copies of Russian weapons and military equipment, including high-precision surrogates with a similar signature, as part of the training of their armed forces, primarily aviation.

Where exactly the train goes is unclear. This may be a training ground or an air base where American pilots will be trained to suppress Russian air defenses, or sent to a port for onward transportation to Europe, given the movement to the east.

The situation on the front line and the fighting

Image

The situation in the border areas has not actually changed: the enemy continues to conduct daily massive shelling of settlements on the Russian side of the border, causing damage to civilians and civilian buildings. However, in the meantime, the enemy is accumulating forces inthe territories of the Sumy region bordering the Belgorod region .

In the Akhtyrsky district and most Akhtyrka itself , Ukrainian formations are actively evicting the civilian population from their homes, accumulating troops in the immediate vicinity of the border with the Russian Federation.

Image
On the Starobelsky direction in the direction of Kreminnaya , hostilities resumed. Over the past few days, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been trying to attack the positions of Russian troops in the Serebryansky forestry , trying to break through to Dibrova and the southern outskirts of Kremennaya. At the moment, all the attacks of the paratroopers of the 95th airborne infantry brigade of Ukraine have been repulsed. At the same time, the fighters of the RF Armed Forces also carried out an assault on several strongholds in the area of ​​​​the Torsky ledge , managing to occupy two points and destroy one DRG of the 25th airborne brigade of the DShV of Ukraine.

However, according to some signs, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for more active operations in this area. Many units operating in the area Liman area have switched to radio silence, observing camouflage measures either in preparation for an attack or transfer to other directions. In the vicinity of Liman itself, formations of the 1st presidential brigade appeared, and near Balakleya - 32 mechanized brigades. In the area of ​​Slavyansk, on the second line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, units of the 115th brigade of the 10th AK of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were noticed.

Image

Together with the intensification of shelling of Ukrainian formations in the Valuysky district and the concentration of the group in Kupyansky and Svatovsky areas , there is a more complete picture of what the next step of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may be.

Northeast of Bakhmut attempts by the formations of the 10th Guards Brigade and the Terodefense to break through the defenses of the Russian army at the turn of Sakko and Vanzetti - Nikolaevka - Yakovlevka do not stop . The Armed Forces of Ukraine carry out raids, trying to penetrate the gaps between strongholds and minefields. At the moment, the fighters of the RF Armed Forces are successfully holding the lines. The enemy, regardless of losses, showers the advanced with cannon fodder, concentrating most of his efforts on Yakovlevka.

Why this particular village? A road passes through Yakovlevka to Bakhmut via Soledar . In the event of a breakthrough here, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will cut the logistics hub and be able to develop the offensive to the roads from Trypillya and Popasnaya . In this scenario, the Ukrainian formations will provide the necessary conditions for themselves to conduct a counterattack on Bakhmut. To the west, the shock fist is already concentrating: the 22nd, 42nd and 115th brigade, as well as the 21st brigade at the turn of Slavyansk - Seversk, have joined the brigades previously operating there.

In radio interception, members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report an upcoming attack on June 22. In confirmation of this, mass checks of communications equipment and readiness for joint actions are underway in the formations at the forefront. There is no strategic sense in the attack on Bakhmut, except for information and psychological. But in the event of a coordinated attack along the Belgorod and Starobelsk directions, as well as near Bakhmut, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may try to break through the layered defense in the LPR and DPR and cut off the groupings of the RF Armed Forces at the junction of areas of responsibility.

Image
There are no significant changes in the Donetsk direction , however, a video of yesterday's assault on the Zverinets fortified area near Maryinka appeared on the network . The video shows the process of attacking the fortified area of ​​the Armed Forces of Ukraine. After intensive artillery preparation, Russian fighters in armored vehicles, with artillery fire support, attacked the enemy, managing to knock him out of the "menagerie".

Also today, another video of the use of unmanned loaded MTLB explosives, which we wrote about earlier, appeared. Russian troops attacked near the forest belt northwest of the fortified area.

The offensive in this area confirms the control of the RF Armed Forces over the "menagerie" and indicates a further advance south of Maryinka. The choice of this particular direction is not accidental: the stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is located on a hill, control over which will allow us to take more advantageous positions before a further attack on Pobeda.

Image
On the Vremievsky ledge, the situation did not change significantly. Ukrainian formations continue to unsuccessfully attack the positions of the RF Armed Forces, suffering heavy losses in manpower and equipment.

Image
On the Orekhovsky site in the morning, an armored group of 128th armored personnel carriers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine entered the village of Pyatikhatki , which was located in the gray zone, and from there the infantry swooped down trying to break through to Zherebyanki . As a result of the ensuing battle, the offensive was stopped, and the 128th Guards Brigade retreated to its original positions. Neither the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation nor the Armed Forces of Ukraine have confident control over the Pyatikhatki. At the same time, the confirmed losses of the enemy amounted to 57 people killed.


Also, Ukrainian formations carried out a sortie at the turn of Rabotino - Verbovoye, , trying to penetrate the defenses of the RF Armed Forces, using the already standard tactics of transferring infantry to the front line with armored vehicles. The attack was attended by assault groups of the 65th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which could not gain a foothold and retreated with losses. The number of refuseniks is growing in the ranks of Ukrainian formations, including in the 47th Ombre of the 9th Army Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They were replaced by the 25th assault battalion of the unit. The number of confirmed losses in equipment in the "elite" 47 brigade exceeded more than 100 units. This is confirmed by the transfer to the command of the commander of the 47th brigade of the tank battalion of the 33rd mechanized brigade, which arrived at Orekhovo.

In addition, units of the 71st Jaeger Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Marun tactical group were transferred to Yegorovka . Earlier, paratroopers of the 82nd Airborne Brigade had already appeared on the same site. The appearance of formations from the "Marun" indicates the imminent activation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Gulyai-Polye sector of the front.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

In the north of the Crimean peninsula, in the morning, Russian EW facilities landed a Ukrainian Mugin 5 drone approaching Russian territory.

Image
In the Bryansk region, Ukrainian formations fired at the villages of Brakhlov , Azarovka and Kurkovichi . In total, there were about ten arrivals in the villages today, residential buildings and outbuildings were damaged, there were no injuries among the residents.

Image
In the Kursk region, under artillery fire, the border checkpoint Sudzha and the village of Guevo . No one was injured as a result of the shelling.

Image
The enemy shelled the Balki farm and Lozovaya Rudka in the Belgorod Region . In addition, air defense systems shot down a Ukrainian drone near Tulyanka . Later, Ukrainian formations fired at three more settlements - Leonovka, Vyazovoe and the Pankov farm .

Today, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continued to fiercely strike at the cities of the Donetsk People's Republic . As a result of the shelling of Donetsk, Gorlovka, Yasinovataya, Zaitsevo and others, two women were killed, and about seven more people were injured of varying severity.

Image
At night, Ukrainian formations again attacked Kakhovka, Hola Pristan and Velyka Lepetikha in the Kherson region . In addition, the enemy attacked Novaya Kakhovka with kamikaze drones - as a result of the raid, four employees of the local utility company were injured, and the city itself was left without electricity for some time.

Political events
On the transfer of captured ethnic Hungarians from among the Hungarian Armed Forces

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó denied his participation in negotiations with Russia on the transfer of captured soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from among the Transcarpathian Hungarians to Hungary . According to him, contacts were made exclusively between the ROC MP and the Hungarian Church, and the fighters brought to the territory of Hungary are free in their movement and actions.

The Ukrainian authorities say that the released fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of Hungarian origin are allegedly limited in actions on the territory of Hungary.

On Ukraine's membership in NATO

According to Le Monde, the French authorities allegedly decided to support Ukraine's membership in the North Atlantic Alliance, following the example of Poland and the Baltic states , abandoning their more cautious position.

At a recent meeting of the Defense Council at the Elysee Palace on June 12, the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO "as an independent security guarantee" that could deter Russia from "continuing the war or any further aggression" was considered.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

(Other images at link.)

********


“Normal” Life Under Artillery Shells: “We Will Never Abandon Our Land”
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JUNE 20, 2023

United World International
Image

“Normal” life under artillery shells: “We will never abandon our land”We are in the Donetsk People’s Republic. The Republic unilaterally declared independence from Ukraine in 2014. People are walking on the streets, taking their children to parks. However, at the same time, artillery shells or missiles are falling there. This is “normal” for them.

We departed from Zaporizhia and took the road to Rostov and then the Donetsk People’s Republic. It takes about 3 hours from Rostov to the center of Donetsk. My Russian/Italian journalist friend, Vitorio, who has been living in Donetsk since 2015, accompanies me. I asked him what our plan is in the DPR. He replied, “Choose any place on the map, and I will take you there.”

The minibus pierced by shrapnel

We crossed the border from Rostov and entered the DPR. From there, a minibus will pick us up and take us to the city of Donetsk. We loaded our suitcases into the back of the vehicle. Just as I was about to get in, I noticed some holes near the door. I asked what happened, and the driver responded, “Last week, while driving, a shell landed 20 meters away from me, and shrapnel pierced the minibus.” Some unsettling…

A comfortable hotel hit two times

After approximately an hour and a half of travel, we arrived in Donetsk. The vehicle dropped us off in front of a hotel. Explosions and shrapnel had damaged the entrance of the hotel. Vitorio said that the hotel had been hit by missiles twice before. As I listened to Vitorio’s words with astonishment, I thought to myself, “I probably won’t be staying here.” However, Vitorio took my suitcase and entered the hotel. Then he started laughing and said, “Don’t worry, it is comfortable.”

Image
Entrance of Altınbaş’s hotel in Donetsk – this and all photos by Özgür Altınbaş

“Don’t use seatbelts here”

We left the hotel and got into Vitorio’s car. I sat in the front seat and fastened my seatbelt. At that moment my journalist friend said, “I don’t think you need the seatbelt.” I asked why and the answer is “We don’t use seatbelts here. In case of a artillery shell or missile attack, we need to quickly get out off the vehicle.” From that moment on, I found myself occasionally irrationally looking up at the sky and wondering, “What if a shell falls?”

Donetsk has another unfamiliar thing for us. During winter, they don’t fully close the car windows to be able to hear the sound of the shell a few seconds before it hits. To have a few seconds of survival chance…

“Water days”

Since Ukraine damaged the pipes, water supply to the city is difficult. They are trying to provide water from the Don River. Households receive water for a few hours every three days. These days are called “water days” by the people of Donetsk. Everyone fulfills their needs such as washing clothes and personal hygiene on those days.

Bombed roads

We started exploring the city center. Vitorio is often saying things like, “This place was hit by an artillery shell, and so many civilians died…” The Ukrainian army randomly shells various parts of the city every day. Surviving here is somewhat a matter of luck. However, the people of Donetsk have become so accustomed that you can even see parents with their children in parks that have been hit before.

The bombed roads are quickly cleared by workers and patched up with asphalt to make them usable again. For the workers in Donetsk, this has become a routine job.

Dead children

Walking along the streets of Donetsk, you come across places where toys, children’s shoes, or flowers have been placed. These are “memorials” for the children who lost their lives due to artillery shells or missiles fired by Ukraine. Some of them were 7 years old, some 13, some just 4. While seeing toys in other contexts would normally mean happiness, in this city it is exactly the opposite.

Image
Shoe and toys of a girl at the cite where she lost her life due to artillery shelling

“We will never abandon our land”

If I had to summarize Donetsk in one word, I would choose the word “resilience”. Despite nine years of war and the constant risk of being hit by artillery shells or missiles, the people of Donetsk refuse to leave the city. When I asked them, “Why don’t you go to Russia? It’s safer there”, they responded, “We were born and raised here. We will never abandon our land. We will die if necessary.” If I had heard such a thing before coming to Donetsk, I would have probably dismissed it as mere propaganda.

Walking in Donetsk, you can hear the sounds of artillery fire. Especially around the train station, which is just a few kilometers away from the front, you feel like in the midst of the war.

Shopping interrupted by artillery shells

Right next to the train station, there is a market. It had been struck by missiles, causing the loss of many lives. You tried to get in contact with the vendors at the market to conduct an interview. Eventually Vitorio manages to convince one of them. He was Azerbaijani Turk. We embraced each other and started speaking in Turkish. The sound of artillery shells kept interrupting our conversation from time to time.

He has been living in Donetsk for 15 years, selling fruits and vegetables. Also worked in Türkiye before. He says his business is getting worse since the war began difficulties, but he adds “We are still living”. He sends his greetings to Türkiye.

Image
Image
On the left: Market building hit by American-made HIMARS missiles – several civilian casualties. On the right: Shops are protected by sand bags against incoming shellis and missiles

We bought a few kilograms of fruit. Despite the hard conditions he lives in, he refuses to take our money. We couldn’t accept that as well, so we discreetly put the money under his stall without him noticing. It was truly difficult to leave our Azerbaijani Turkish brother…

Calmness in the war zone

While touring the city, Vitorio received a message. Approximately an hour ago, an artillery shell had hit a house. “Shall we go?” he asked. “Let’s go,” I replied.

The location of the house was in a region close to the front line, but also a central area of the city. A detached house with a garden. We rang the doorbell, and a couple in their 50s opened the door. Offering our condolences, we introduced ourselves and asked for an interview. The woman calmly narrated the incident as follows: “We were at home. Suddenly a shell struck. My son was got injured in his leg and now in the hospital. They had to amputate his leg. He will have to live with just one leg from now on.” While these were shocking to me, I was taken aback by the calmness of the people living in the war zone.

Vendor asking about Erdoğan

My 20-day visit to Russia was during the elections in Türkiye. I was buying souvenirs from a street vendor for my friends in Türkiye. The vendor asked me where I was from. I bought and walked a few meters away. The street vendor came running after me and asked “Will Erdoğan win?” I told that he would likely win in the second round. He responded “It would be good if Erdogan wins, I support him.”

This sentiment was not limited to just that vendor. Many Russians who learned that I am Turkish said “Erdogan should win.” It was quiet evident that Russians see Türkiye as a friendly country.

Image
Statue made of artillery shells and missile parts that were fired on Donetsk

A commander in the coffee shop

The People’s Militias have gained significant experience in Donetsk after the country’s independence from Ukraine in 2014. You can occasionally see militia members in military uniforms on the streets. They named themselves “Sparta Battalion.” At the coffee shop we visit every morning, we came across a high-ranking commander from the Sparta Battalion. He was having his coffee before heading to the front lines. I took the opportunity to ask him some questions. I asked how the current situation was, and he said “The Ukrainians have increased their attacks and are using more tanks, but they have not yet broken through our defense.” After his coffee, he went off to the front lines as if he was going to work.

Local people have defended Donetsk for the past nine years. While Russian troops came here to support with the special military operation, local militia forces still primarily protect the city. They assert that they fight with even greater motivation than soldiers coming from any part of Russia.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/06/ ... -our-land/

Death to the Nazis. And make no mistake, this is the US's doing, going back to 1945.

***********

The Collapse of Kiev
JUNE 20, 2023

Image
Tanks used by the Ukrainian military, destroyed in the counter-offensive. Photo: Voltaire Network.

By Thierry Meyssan – Jun 13, 2023

In six days, from June 4 to 10, 2023, the Ukrainian army launched its counter-offensive and suffered a terrible defeat.

During the summer, Russian forces built two defense lines in the part of Novorossia they liberated and in the Donbass. They prevent the passage of all armored vehicles.

Ukrainian forces have chosen a dozen points of attack to retake “enemy-occupied” territory. Their armored vehicles were unable to get through the first line of Russian defenses and piled up in front of it, where they were destroyed one by one by Russian artillery and suicide drones.

At the same time, the Russian army targeted missiles at command centers and arsenals inside Ukrainian territory and destroyed them.

The Ukrainian air defense system was destroyed by hypersonic missiles as soon as it was installed. In its absence, the Ukrainians were unable to carry out the maneuvers planned by Nato.

Russia did not use any of its new weapons, apart from its NATO weapons jamming system and some of its hypersonic missiles.

The border is now a long graveyard of tanks and men. Airports are full of smoking Mig-29 and F-16 wrecks.

The staffs of the United States, the Atlantic Alliance and Ukraine are passing the buck for this historic disaster. Hundreds of thousands of human lives and 500 billion dollars have been wasted for nothing. Western weapons, which shook the world in the 90s, are now worthless compared to the Russian arsenal of today. Strength has changed sides.

Two conclusions can already be drawn:

Do not confuse the Ukrainian army with the “integral nationalists”

While there is no longer a Ukrainian army capable of high-intensity warfare, there are still the forces of the “integral nationalists” (sometimes called “Banderists” or “Ukrainian-Nazis”). But they are only trained for low-intensity warfare. Its leaders went to fight in Chechnya in the late 90s on behalf of the CIA and NATO secret services, and sometimes in Syria in the 2020s. They are trained in targeted assassinations, sabotage and civilian massacres. Nothing more.

They succeeded

1. In sabotaging the Russian-German-French-Dutch Nord Stream gas pipeline, plunging Germany and then the European Union into recession on September 26, 2022.
2. In sabotaging the Kerch Strait bridge (known as the “Crimean Bridge”), on October 8, 2022.
3. In attacking the Kremlin with drones, May 3, 2023
4. In using drones to attack the Ivan Kurs, the intelligence vessel defending the Turkish Stream gas pipeline in the Black Sea, on May 26, 2023.
5. In sabotaging the Kakhovka dam to split Novorossia in two, on June 6, 2023.
6. In sabotaging the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline to destroy the Russian mineral fertilizer industry, on June 7, 2023.

Just as in the two World Wars and the Cold War, they proved their terrorist capabilities, but played no decisive role on the battlefield.

Now more than ever, we need to distinguish between Ukrainians who thought they were defending their people, and the “integral nationalists” [1], who don’t care about their compatriots and have been trying for a century to eradicate Russians and their culture.

The Ukraine we knew is dead

Until now, Ukraine has been above all a power of communication. Kiev succeeded in making people believe that the 2014 coup d’état that overthrew a democratically elected president in favor of integral nationalists was a revolution. Likewise, it has managed to make people forget the way it crushed its citizens in the Donbass, refusing to give them access to public services, to pay civil servants’ salaries and pensions to the elderly and, ultimately, bombing its cities. Finally, it succeeded in convincing Westerners that Ukraine was a homogenous country with a single population living a common history.

As in most wars, there is also a “civil war” aspect [2]. Today, everyone can see that, contrary to what was claimed, Vladimir Putin’s analysis was not a reconstruction of history, but a factual truth. The people of Donbass are profoundly Russian. The people of Novorossia (including Crimea) are of Russian culture, albeit with a different history (they have never known serfdom). Ukraine has never existed as an independent state in history, apart from one decade, during the periods 1917-22 and 1941-45, and three other decades, since 1991.

During these three experiences, Kiev never stopped purging its people and massacring its citizens when the full nationalists were in power (1917-22 with Simon Petliura, 1941-45 with Stepan Bandera, and 2014-22 with Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelensky). In total, over the course of a century, the “integral nationalists” – as they call themselves – have murdered more than 3 million of their compatriots.

During the First World War, the people of Novorossia had already risen up around the anarchist Nestor Makhno; during the Second World War, the people of Donbass and Novorossia rose up as Soviets; while this time, they are fighting against the “integral nationalists” in Kiev with Russian forces.

FBI Helps Ukraine Censor Twitter Users and Obtain Their Info, Including Journalists


The only way to stop these massacres is to separate the “integral nationalists” from the population of Russian culture they want to kill [3]. Since Nato staged a coup in 2014 and put them in power, there’s no other way but to note the country’s current division and leave them in power in Kiev. It is the Ukrainians, and they alone, who will have to overthrow them.

Current military operations have already done so. The part of the country liberated by the Russians voted in a referendum to join the Federation. However, last year’s Russian advance was halted by President Vladimir Putin as part of negotiations with Ukraine, conducted first in Belarus, then in Turkey. Odessa is still Ukrainian in law, even though it is culturally Russian. Transnistria is still Moldavian, even though it is culturally Russian.

The war is technically over. No offensive can alter the current borders. Admittedly, the fighting may drag on and a peace treaty is a long way off, but the die is cast. There is still a problem in Ukraine and Moldavia: Odessa and Transnistria are still not Russian. Above all, there remains a fundamental problem: in violation of their oral and written commitments, the members of the Atlantic Alliance have stockpiled US weapons on Russia’s borders, jeopardizing its security.

https://orinocotribune.com/the-collapse-of-kiev/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10784
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Thu Jun 22, 2023 12:04 pm

Adaptability
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 06/22/2023

Image

This week, the political agenda linked to the Ukrainian conflict is marked by the forum in which Kiev's creditors seek to design and finance the future reconstruction of Ukraine, an event that, because it marks the future model planned for Ukraine, deserves analysis. in depth once completed. The summit, a public-private collaboration in which those who are currently financing the war and the country's economy seek commitments for a future reconstruction, occurs two weeks after the start of the counteroffensive that all of them have been preparing for months. With the need to maintain good prospects for the future that guarantee the maintenance of economic and financial aid, without which the Zelensky government would not even be able to maintain the payment of pensions, the Ukrainian president has been forced to face due to the scant results of this initial phase.

Despite the burning nail of Prigozhin's statements to which Ukrainian nationalists and part of the Western press clung yesterday, who have preferred not to see in the statements that Ukraine is advancing in Zaporozhye one more staging of its internal struggle against the Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainian counter-offensive has collided with exaggerated expectations that the Zelensky government itself had generated. For months, the lack of preparation and morale of the Russian troops has been alleged, of which it was even said that they were fighting with shovels, while the absolute superiority of Western weapons over Russian/Soviet weapons was taken for granted. Not because they are foreseeable -Ukraine lacks the air superiority necessary for a large-scale ground and open field operation, especially when the opponent has had months to prepare defenses - the difficulties Kiev's troops are facing cease to be a problem for those who have been using a quick and sure victory speech for months. For example, the now resurfaced Kiril Budanov, head of military intelligence and in charge of sabotage in the Russian rear, claimed last winter that his troops would reach the Crimea before summer.

War is not a Hollywood movie, said Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday, insisting on the difficulty of large-scale operations. Certainly, war is hard and it is even more so in cases like the current one, in which two heavily armed armies face each other and which have conscientiously prepared -apart from errors and miscalculations- the tactic that they are now trying to put into practice. However, it is now difficult to justify the demand not to treat the battle as a fictional genre when the Ukrainian government itself has used audiovisual montage and propaganda techniques to present the offensive, through a video shot with high production values, as something epic and apparently out of reality, a state in which many Ukrainian officers still find themselves.

For example, Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, who is proud that his letter to Ded Morozhas given Ukraine the tanks that it expected and that Western aviation is now asking for, has stated this week in an interview that it hopes to celebrate its next birthday -in June 2024- in the Crimean peninsula. The lack of significant results and the need to temporarily halt an offensive that was causing excessive material losses has not meant a change in the general tone of Ukrainian discourse. The offensive has only just begun, so no result can yet be considered final, but it is notable that, unlike in the case of Kharkiv last autumn, Ukraine is being forced to rectify. Yesterday, the commander of the Vostok battalion Alexander Jodakovsky, with nine years of experience in this war, was referring to the change in tactics of the Ukrainian opponent,

Adaptation is an important part of war, which implies preparation, planning and logistics, but also adaptation of plans to unforeseen situations that will necessarily arise throughout the conflict. It is something that has happened on both sides of the front and to which the two fighting staffs have had to respond. The ability to learn is an essential factor in guaranteeing the success of any side in the conflict, especially in a war of the intensity of the current one. Even so, the speed with which it has become clear that the rapid advance that the most optimistic seemed to hope for remains significant regardless of what the final result will be once the necessary changes take place.

Praising the ease with which Ukrainian soldiers have managed to train themselves in the handling of Western tanks, reducing the time from four months to four weeks, Reznikov has once again insisted on the importance of having Western aviation. However, the minister prefers to avoid admitting something that has even been published by the Western press: the mishandling of the equipment delivered by the NATO countries is one of the factors, although not the only one, of the high losses of material that is suffering Ukraine. Applying the logic of Reznikov, who in his interview stated that Ukrainian pilots can reduce F16 driving training from ten months to ten weeks, to aviation is a guarantee of a new fiasco.

The adaptation that Ukraine is making at the front has not yet been translated into the speech, which is kept in the smile of certain victory. What's more, the Ukrainian officers fight hard against any expression of seeking a ceasefire and charge against any attempt to freeze the conflict. War is the only way out and while its allies seek future funding for a reconstruction that will not begin for a long time, Kiev dreams of destroying the Russian troops and taking the war to the few places it has not yet reached. Gone is Budanov's prediction of an arrival in Crimea before the summer of 2023, but the goal remains the same. Although without any hard evidence to justify it - Ukrainian troops have not yet reached the Russian first line of defense despite making some progress on the Zaporozhye front - Kiev continues to boast of advances "towards Berdiansk", a city in the coast of the Azov Sea from which it is still a long way away, and towards Melitopol, its real objective as it is the road to the Crimea.

Yesterday, British intelligence, whose communications are not to be understood as a source of information on the state of the front but as an opinion-building exercise, stated that Russia fears that Ukraine is capable of directly assaulting Crimea, hence the fortification of positions on the border with the peninsula. kyiv's intentions are clear and it is clear that this territory is its final objective, so it is logical that the Russian Federation prepares its defense. Neither Ukraine nor its partners have hidden the fact that they consider every location in Crimea, civilian or military, a legitimate target for Ukrainian troops. In the current situation, the war in Ukraine has become existential, not only for kyiv but also for Moscow,

But the political consequences are not the only reason for the need to defend at all costs the Russian positions in Crimea and southern Ukraine as a guarantee that the war does not reach the peninsula. With each declaration, the Ukrainian civil and military authorities make clear their intentions towards the population. A few months ago, the chairman of the National Security and Defense Council, who published a plan for the vacation of Crimea which implied the denial of basic rights to the population, did not hide the will to expel an important part of the inhabitants of the peninsula. Mikhailo Podoliak, adviser to the President's Office, added the need to make Russian culture disappear. And long before even Russian troops attacked Ukraine in February 2022, President Zelensky had recommended that the Ukrainian population identifying as Russian move to Russia.

The intentions have always been clear, but now Ukraine has the go-ahead from the West to try to impose it by force. In a new outburst that is in line with the policy proposed by the Government, Oleksiy Danilov, using the British argument of Russian fear of Ukraine's arrival in Crimea, called on the Russians to leave the territory "as long as possible." "All Russians in the illegally occupied territory of Crimea should flee while they have the chance," National Security and Defense Council Chairman Oleksiy Danilov suggested in a television appearance on June 20. The suggestion was actually an explicit statement to which Danilov added that they use "the services of the infrastructure that they have now as soon as possible." Danilov refers there to the Kerch bridge,

Without the possibility of responding in any other way to the Ukrainian discourse of psychological warfare against the population, Russia adapts to the circumstances by preparing the military defense. The narrative of Russian fear of Ukraine's arrival in Crimea is a useful tool for Ukrainian propaganda, in need of some kind of victory, real or imagined, at this time. However, the ease with which the Ukrainian representatives show their willingness to take the war to the peninsula and expel "all Russians" from there, something that includes the vast majority of the local population reminds us that, today , Russian troops are the only protection available to the men and women of Crimea against those who have been trying to trample on their most basic rights for almost a decade.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/06/22/capac ... more-27563

Google Translator

******

HOW MANY LINES OF DEMILITARIZATION, DENAZIFICATION MAKE A SANITARY ZONE FOR UKRAINIAN TERRITORY – EAST OF LVOV, WHAT IS LEFT?

Image

By John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

Since the Ukrainian abrogation of the Istanbul non-aggression and neutrality agreement of March 2022, which President Vladimir Putin displayed to a delegation of African leaders last Saturday, one thing has been clear. The pact to end this war will be drafted and signed by Ukrainian soldiers who have been defeated in the field, not by civilian politicians who are paid and instructed by Washington.

The terms will be dictated by Russian soldiers. They will calculate the distances to be covered by long-range NATO artillery and missile launches on Russian territory, and of Ukrainian terrorist attacks into Russian regions. These are military facts the Russian General Staff have a long history of calculating, plotting them on maps and reinforcing the depth of defence and control lines – as long ago as the Soviet Army war against the US-backed Afghan mujahideen.

Since last November, when this website published first maps of a demilitarized zone for the Ukrainian territory, the depth of the Russian defence lines has been moving steadily westward. As each of the Ukrainian strategic reserves – units newly trained and armed by the US and NATO states – are committed to battle and fail, their retreat leaves all of the remaining Ukrainian territory open to a Russian advance.

What follows is the first detailed discussion in the open in Moscow of how the map of this territory should be drawn when the Ukrainian offensive reaches its end, and the Russian advance begins.

Left out of mention is who in Moscow will be drawing the new map. This is because Putin has he is delegating to the General Staff. “Russia’s military leadership,” he said on June 9, “is realistic in its assessments of the situation and will proceed from these realities as it continues to plan up our actions in the short term.”

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had already said the same a year ago. “Now the geography is different,” he concluded an interview in Moscow on July 20, 2022. “Take the HIMARS. [Ukrainian] Defence Minister Alexei Reznikov boasts that they have already received 300-kilometre ammunition. This means our geographic objectives will move even further from the current line. We cannot allow the part of Ukraine that Vladimir Zelensky, or whoever replaces him, will control to have weapons that pose a direct threat to our territory or to the republics that have declared their independence and want to determine their own future.”

“[Question:] How can this be arranged, technically? This is our territory. Then there are the republics that will accede to us. In fact they already have – the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. … Further west, there is the territory controlled by Vladimir Zelensky. They have a common border. So either there should be a 300 kilometre buffer zone or something between them, or we need to march all the way to Lvov inclusive.”

“[Lavrov:] There is a solution to this problem. The military know this.”

“Comrade servicemen,” Lavrov added last week on a visit to the 201st Russian Military Base in Tajikistan, “they are getting ready, in earnest, to supply the F-16 jets. Some say they will make two squadrons available, others say eight. They are gearing up to continue the escalation of the war against us. There’s an ongoing debate about where these planes will take off from. Our armed forces and the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces are well aware of ongoing developments and report to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. We must keep in mind that one version of the F-16 can carry nuclear weapons. If they do not understand this, they are worthless military strategists and planners.”

The General Staff have no reason to speak publicly on this point.

Privately, a source in a position to know says: “the General Staff are not satisfied with the Dnieper [line of defence]. It will run from a small town on the border with Belarus to Transnistria. They will solve that problem as well. But mainly, Belarus has to be protected from the south. And most importantly, that leaves nothing of the Ukraine except the territory which the Poles and Hungarians might not be bold enough to take.”

Image
Source: https://vz.ru/

In the verbatim translation following, maps and photographs have been added.


June 17, 2023
The Afghan experience prompted us to create a “sanitary zone” in Ukraine
The experience of fighting the mujahideen in Afghanistan can be used to
confront the AFU
by Andrei Rezchikov

Vladimir Putin spoke twice this week about the creation of a “sanitary cordon” on the territory of Ukraine. This line should protect the territories of the Russian Federation from the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine [AFU], which receive long-range missiles from the West. Russia has experience in creating such a zone in Afghanistan, but in the new realities we may be talking about a larger project. In which territories is such a cordon necessary, first of all?

Moscow will consider the possibility of creating a “sanitary cordon” on the territory of Ukraine if the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue attacks on Russian territories. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. “They should just understand where it all leads to. We are working on military targets with high–precision long-range and high-power weapons and are achieving success,” he added.

Putin raised this topic at a meeting with military officers at the beginning of the week. “The possibility of shelling our territory from the territory of Ukraine remains, of course. There are several ways to solve this: firstly, increasing the effectiveness of counter-battery warfare. But this does not mean that the incoming so-called will not be on our territory. And if this continues, then we will probably have to consider the issue, I say this very carefully, in order to create some kind of sanitary zone on the territory of Ukraine at such a distance from which it would be impossible to get our territory,” the president said.

The width and boundaries of this “sanitary zone” depend on the range of weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov added on Saturday. “The more advanced the tactical and technical characteristics of weapons in Ukraine, the greater this distance should be,” he stressed.

Image
Outline map of Ukraine Demilitarized Zone (UDZ) – November 27, 2022.

Image
Outline map of UDZ – June 13, 2023.

The head of the Duma Defense Committee, Andrei Kartapolov, also said that the “sanitary zone” would have to be free of weapons reaching the territory “that Russia considers its own.” According to the deputy, the General Staff should “form a concept and report to the president” on the creation of such a zone.

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev mentioned back in March that the “sanitary strip” in Ukraine would not allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use weapons at medium and short distances of 70-100 km. But already this week [June 14], in his Telegram channel, Medvedev said that, taking into account the decision of the West to supply Kiev with long-range weapons, the line of the demilitarized “sanitary zone” should run “along the borders of Lvov (Polish Lemberg) in order to play a real defensive role. “Then they will be the new secure borders of what used to be called the ‘404 country,'” he wrote.

Image
Source: https://t.me/ June 14, 2023. In the second paragraph, Medvedev said: “If we proceed from the proven complicity of Western countries in undermining the Nord Stream [pipelines], then not even moral restrictions are left for us to refrain from destroying the cable communication of our enemies laid on the ocean floor.”

“It is more accurate to use the term “buffer zone”. Having taken control of this zone, in the outcome we are unlikely to give it to Ukraine,” says Alexander Perendzhiev, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio–Psychological Processes at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, and a member of the expert council of “Officers of Russia”. “If Ukraine continues to shoot, the process of advancing Russian troops to the west may be endless,” he added.

According to this expert, the “sanitary cordon” could now become the Dnieper River. “Remember the Great Stand on the Ugra in 1480. This event is considered the completion of the overthrow of the Mongol-Tatar yoke in Russia. Now we can also assume that the liberation of the southern underbelly in the form of Odessa, Nikolaev, and up to the border with Transnistria will take place,” Perendzhiev suggested. But there are other opinions, too.

“If such a zone is created, it will run from the Bug to the Vistula, but not along the Dnieper line, because many supporters of Russia, Russians, live in Kiev. This is traditionally our land, which was part of the Russian Empire, the USSR. Therefore, we have every right to talk about a security line on territories fundamentally different from the territories historically belonging to Russia. Russia’s geopolitical interests extend much further than the Dnieper line,” said Oleg Ivannikov, a military political scientist and lieutenant colonel (reserve) at the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Image
According to Ivannikov, today the number one task is the denazification of the Kiev regime. Therefore, when there are fundamental political changes in the Ukrainian statehood, “the very question of creating buffer zones would become irrelevant.”

“We are not talking about the firing of tanks, mortars, large-calibre artillery at our territories. Western artillery systems have the ability to hit targets at a distance of up to 40 kilometres. The fact that such a zone should be near Donetsk and further from the DPR border is unequivocal. And also in the LPR, in the Kherson region and in Zaporozhye – where there is still fighting. Of course, we are talking about the Belgorod region and the Bryansk region, which borders with the Sumy and Chernigov regions,” said Vasily Dandykin, captain of the 1st rank, deputy editor–in-chief of the Warrior of Russia magazine.

He recalled that Russia already has experience in creating a buffer zone in Afghanistan. “When the 40th Combined Arms Army was there, which was part of a limited contingent of Soviet troops, the “sanitary zone” was provided by the border troops of the USSR. They had maneuverable groups that did not allow the mujahideen to enter the rear of our group on the territory for tens of kilometers,” the expert said.

According to Dandykin, the size of the “sanitary cordon” depends on what range of weapons the enemy will have. “If these are long-range cruise missiles, then a zone of 40 kilometres does not make sense. Now Ukraine has HIMARS MLRS [multiple launch rocket systems] with missiles with a flight range of up to 80 kilometres. The Americans can supply missiles with a range of up to 200 kilometres,” Dandykin said.

Image
Left to right: Andrei Kartapolov, Alexander Perendzhiev, Oleg Ivannikov, Vasily Dandykin.


From the beginning of the AFU counteroffensive, the enemy began to attack during the day, although he had previously practised mainly sorties at night. “The attacks are carried out by drones, Grom-2 missile — they are trying to probe the Crimea and not only there. They have already fired British Storm Shadow missiles at Lugansk, which is hundreds of kilometres from the front line. If they act like inveterate terrorists, then it is necessary to create a “sanitary cordon”,emphasizes the captain of the 1st rank.


https://johnhelmer.net/how-many-lines-o ... more-88213

*******

End game in the Ukraine war approaches with lightning speed

Today Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made an announcement that has not yet been carried in Western media but which is of the most grave nature.

According to the latest intelligence reports, Russia believes that the Ukrainian armed forces now intend to cover their failed counter-offensive in the Donbas by using US-supplied Himars multiple launch artillery and UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, possibly in the longer range domestic version, to attack the Crimea.

If this happens, says Shoigu, Russia will consider both the United States and Britain to have fully entered the war as co-belligerents. And Russia will immediately respond to any such attack on its territory by destroying “the decision making centers” of the Kiev regime. This is a fairly transparent threat to “neutralize” their government apparatus and personnel, logically including President Zelensky.

The statement by Shoigu leaves little doubt that we are entering the final phase of the Ukraine war as a war limited to the geography of Ukraine, and are possibly heading into a wider war with unforeseeable consequences both for Europeans and (finally) for Americans.

The ball is in the court of Washington and London.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/06/20/ ... ing-speed/

******

From the Telegraph account of Slavyangrad:

Zimovsky writes about timid attempts in the Western press to explain the failure of the counteroink:

Some tentative attempts have appeared in the Western press to explain the failures of the Ukrainian forces in the offensive.

It turns out that "Russian artillery uses UAVs to detect targets and strikes Ukrainian infantry and equipment within 3-5 minutes after receiving data for firing."

As a consequence, out of fear, the chubatantes [GB: I like this more than "the Khokhols," so I've kept the term untranslated] spread their forces so much that the front of a Ukrainian infantry company's offensive stretches to three kilometers. As a result, at most a battalion is deployed in an area where an offensive by the forces of a entire brigade (sic!) was planned .

The density of the Russian drones over the battlefield, combined with the speed and accuracy of artillery and air strikes, does not allow more than a company of the chubatantes to form a striking fist at the point of the attack.

"...battalions attack frontages that are traditionally the responsibility of brigades; Russian artillery superiority and drones density prevent Ukrainians from concentrating in units above company size."

I myself am a supporter of the concept "if you don't like it, then don't listen, but don't interfere with the lying." But with such simplicity and clarity. Hats off to them.

***

Slavyangrad
Russian Frontier reports on the Krasny Liman direction: The "O" (Audacious) Grouping of the Russian Army conducts offensive operations and repulses counterattack after counterattack by the AFU in the Krasny Liman direction.

➖The units of the "Center" group of the Russian Army are conducting assault actions in several areas. Artillery suppresses enemy firepower, after which infantry comes in.

➖ Two DRGs of the 49th DSB, disguised as Russian troops (using the VKPO uniform), were detected and destroyed in the Terny direction.

➖ Near the village of Chervonaya Dibrova, an armored group from the 63rd AFU Mechanized Brigade, on an APC, tried to attack our positions. The enemy was hit by MLRS, and, having lost combat effectiveness, the enemy retreated.

➖ Also, a group of 3 pickup trucks of the 100th AFU Territorial Defence Brigade attempted to drive in from the flank of one of our strongholds. It was detected by reconnaissance, one pickup was destroyed by ATGM fire, the rest retreated.

➖ In the area of the Serebryanskoye forestry, the enemy made two attempts to break through with infantry, supported by APCs of the 63rd AFU Mechanized Brigade. Artillery fire destroyed it.

💥 Artillery strikes were carried out against the ammo depots in Torskoye and Yampolovka.

***

Slavyangrad
NgP Razvedka’ Zaporozhye Direction SitRep:

According to the latest data, equipment and personnel of the Ukrainian 25th Separate Battalion of the 65th Mechanize Brigade are arriving at the front positions of the line of contact in the Orekhov direction. active movement of columns of equipment in the direction of Novonikolayevka has been reported.

To the north of Rabotino, the enemy units are being re-supplied with equipment and personnel after the losses they suffered.

The officer staff of the 65th Mechanized Brigade notes the complication of offensive actions due to the remote mining of the approaches by the Russian Armed Forces.

There is also information about the preparation of forces and technical means of the 128th Territorial Defence Brigade for active operations in the area of Maliye Shcherbaki - Zherebianka.

The brigade's officers are receiving complaints about the disruption of work as a result of the Russian Armed Forces' artillery fire.

The 102nd Territorial Defence Brigade is trying to build an electronic warfare line southwest of Guliaypole to cover its forces.

Officers of the brigade are receiving complaints about destruction by the Russian Armed Forces of electronic warfare equipment mounted on armored vehicles.

The 108th Territorial Defence Brigade is also conducting similar operations in the area of Malaya Tokmachka.

The command of the 128th Separate Alpine Assault Battalion reported to the headquarters about a missile strike battalion’s personnel station near the Kirovo village.

The build-up of the Ukrainian strike force in the Orekgov and Pologi directions is continuing, reserves are being moved in, including those from other sectors of the line of contact.

Thus, the positions of the 65th Mechanized Brigade were reinforced by units of the 25th Separate Assault Battalion of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. Also redeployed to the Orekhovo sector was the 98th Separate Battalion of the 108th Territorial Defence Brigade.

There are also difficulties: for example, the Ukrainian command cannot solve the problem of reinforcing the strongpoints of the 3rd Mechanized Battalion of the 65th Mechanized Brigade.

There is a shortage of personnel in the battalion, soldiers from other duty stations refuse to leave for the unit's forward positions, being informed of the losses suffered by the brigade.

The enemy also carried out activities to clear certain areas of land 3 km to the east of the village of Rivnepol, using engineer-sapper units of the 232nd Separate Battalion of 128th Territorial Defence Brigade.

***

Slavyangrad
Marat Khairullin strikes hard. Is he wrong about the bloggers? I am not so sure. He is definitely right about the Russian officers.

The Russian Officer's Oath

PART I | PART II

Yesterday we had an interesting conversation with a high-ranking combat officer, one of those who directs the actions of our troops in Zaporozhye.

But first, of course, we must apologize to the respected bloggers Podolyaka, Rybar, Onufrienko and so on down the list. These guys, entrenched at the front line hundreds of kilometers from the enemy, of course, see better how to lead our army and what is most important in what is going on. You'll excuse me for climbing into your cabbage patch, where you are so actively parasitizing, but maybe someone would be interested to hear the opinion of the front-line soldiers as well.

And we were talking, of course, about the tactics of the Ukrainian offensive, which, of course, was led by the best strategists in NATO and the United States in particular. The trigger for the discussion excerpted below was the question that was asked today on the air on Channel 1 [Russian TV]—why the enemy so stupidly pursues the same direction, without regard to losses. And here is the opinion that was voiced (I repeat the opinion of a military officer of the front line):

The main achievement of Americans in modern history is considered to be the Gulf War. It is for them the benchmark operation, the pinnacle of their military strategic science. And in this campaign [in Ukraine], the best general staff officers who started [their careers] in that campaign are the ones who plan and direct the actions of the Ukrainians. Hence all these tactical methods [that we are seeing] —first of all, the cavalry charges.

...continued below...

PART II

I.e. when the infantry in fast armored vehicles is thrown to the front lines, and then the forward units are supported by all the power available—first and foremost of aviation, as well as artillery and other units. This, by the way, is one of our enemy's strengths—quite good cooperation on the battlefield between the various units.

Not super, of course, we've seen better, but still.

But all these tactics come crashing down as soon as they run into a competent defense and countermeasures - air defense, aviation, and artillery.

The United States has never encountered anything like this in recent history after World War II—its entire tactic was built on a clear superiority over the enemy in all components. If this is not the case, then their whole strategy falls apart.

But at the end of the day, my interlocutor, who, I repeat, is a combat officer with heavy epaulettes, thinks the main thing in the enemy's current fiasco is something else.

In the Gulf, Saddam's army could put up a decent resistance, even in the weakened state they were in. The real success of the Americans was that they simply bought [bribed] a number of Iraq's military leaders. It may be a revelation to some, but it is the generals that soldiers go to battle for. And once these generals betray their country, the battle is lost.

That's why, by the way, all these bloggers are obviously pouring shit on our generals at the behest of the outside world—they are trying to lower the morale of our troops in this way.

But let’s get back to Ukraine. Before the current conflict began, five or six years before our direct confrontation, the U.S. and its allies tried to do the same thing[—to buy up our generals]. They tried very hard. But the only thing they didn't take into account was that they were dealing with Russian generals. No matter how much we have scolded and humiliated our generals in our blogs, not a single one of them has ever [taken the thirty silver pieces] and they have remained loyal to the motherland.

Here I remembered General Rokhlin—he was sitting in his service jacket in the basement of the Grozny bread factory, looking more like some old village man, and repeated one sentence to me several times: "A Soviet officer stays loyal to his oath, even when the Motherland turns away from him." This is where the Americans got burned.

They tried to show us their trademark Gulf War style of benchmark attack, and got nothing. And they have no other options.

PS. Let me say one more thing: Look at how many high-ranking government officials and the “beaumonde” have betrayed our homeland and fled to the West. But not a single general has done so.

And now our so-called “beaumonde,” represented by bloggers who come from nowhere, are openly slinging mud at our military leaders. But at the same time not a single general has ever laid a three-story trench word on this whole bunch. That's what being a Russian officer means. But maybe they should respond.

https://t.me/s/Slavyangrad

***********

Chronicle of the special military operation for June 21, 2023
June 22, 2023
Rybar

Ukrainian formations again used drones to deliver demonstrative strikes on the territory of the Moscow region . EW units intercepted all three vehicles: one crashed near the village of Lukino , the other two fell near the depots of the Tamanskaya motorized rifle division in Kalininets .

At the same time , battles for the village of Pyatikhatki continued throughout the day in the Zaporizhia direction : at the moment, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine control only a small part of the building in the north of the village.

Clashes also do not stop in the Bakhmut direction , including in the area of ​​Kleshcheevka , the Berkhovsky reservoir and in the north of Soledar . All enemy attempts to advance are successfully suppressed by small arms and artillery fire.

At the same time, in the Starobelsk direction, Russian troops expanded their zone of control in the forest near Kremennaya . In the event that units of the RF Armed Forces take the nearest hills and heights, a bridgehead will be created for further advancement in the sector.

Image

Ukrainian UAV raid on the Moscow region

Image
In the morning, electronic warfare units suppressed three Ukrainian drones in the Moscow region . The first drone fell in New Moscow around 5 am in a field near the Pakhra River near the village of Lukino .

The other two crashed half an hour later on approach to the warehouses of the 2nd Guards Tamanskaya motorized rifle division in the Naro-Fominsk urban district .

The previous attempt by Ukrainian UAVs to attack the Moscow region and the capital took place three weeks ago, then five devices were intercepted by air defense systems over the Odintsovo , Krasnogorsk and Istra districts , but three drones hit multi-storey buildings in the south-west of the capital.

So far, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not been able to hit military targets in the Moscow region, but today enemy drones fell in the immediate vicinity of one of the military units.

The situation itself once again raises the question of the need to inflict fire damage on drone assembly plants in Ukraine. Most of them continue their work, despite the fact that these objects are known, and information on their location has been repeatedly transmitted to the competent structures.

The situation on the front line and the fighting
In the Starobelsk direction, Russian troops continue to expand their zone of control in the forest near Kremennaya . The enemy launches counterattacks to stabilize the front line, but they are all successfully repelled.

There have been no significant changes in the Bakhmut direction : artillery duels and mutual reconnaissance continue. Russian drones are conducting reconnaissance along the entire front line, aiming artillery fire at the identified concentrations of enemy forces. At the same time, Ukrainian units from time to time make attempts to break through the defenses of the RF Armed Forces in the area of ​​Kleshcheevka , the Berkhovsky reservoir and north of Soledar, but all of them are successfully suppressed by Russian military personnel.

In the Donetsk direction, the parties are clashing in the Avdeevsky and Maryinsky sections . To the north of the Avdeevsky fortified area , positional battles of medium intensity continue in the Krasnogorovka area . All attempts by the enemy to seize the initiative in the sector end for him only in significant losses.

At the same time, Russian units attempted to storm the eastern regions of Avdiivka itself . The forward detachments penetrated the enemy defenses and opened the firing positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are currently being subjected to artillery and air strikes.

On the Vremievsky ledge against continues to try to break through the defensive orders of the RF Armed Forces. Russian servicemen fought off another attempt from Makarovka . Aviation and artillery are actively working in the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy is suffering significant losses.

Image
In the Zaporizhia direction , Russian servicemen launched a counterattack from the village of Zherebyanki in the morning in order to recapture positions from Pyatikhatki . In the ensuing battle, with the support of artillery, the formation of the 128th Guards Rifle Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were driven out of the settlement.

Now Pyatikhatki is under Russian control. According to the Archangel Spetsnaz, Ukrainian units are trying to counterattack. But the fighters of the 429th regiment of the RF Armed Forces successfully beat off the rolls of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. An accurate blow destroyed one enemy infantry fighting vehicle.

In other areas, the situation is practically unchanged, there were no sorties by Ukrainian units either at the turn of Rabotino - Verbove, or at the Vremievsky ledge. However, the intensity of the fire increased, which may indicate preparations for another attack.

Yesterday's strengthening of positions and the transfer of reinforcements confirms this scenario. Despite the rather low morale among the members of the 128th Guards Rifle Brigade, the strategic reserve units are preparing for an attack in the third decade of June.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas
On the Crimean peninsula, the movement of trains in the Feodosia region was stopped for several hours due to damage to the railway track. According to some reports, this happened as a result of the actions of Ukrainian saboteurs.

Image
Ukrainian formations continue to strike at the border Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region . In the morning, the village of Gornal was under enemy fire : windows were broken in one of the houses. According to preliminary information, there were no casualties.

Image
Ukrainian formations do not stop inflicting massive strikes on the front-line settlements of the Donetsk agglomeration . In the capital of the republic, at night, a Ukrainian drone crashed into a non-residential apartment on the 20th floor of the Disk residential complex in the Voroshilovsky district : several rooms were significantly damaged.


Also, an enemy drone destroyed the roof of the Cathedral Church of Saints Peter and Fevronia in the Leninsky district . At the same time, several residential buildings in other parts of Donetsk were under fire from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Image
Ukrainian units continue to strike from the HIMARS MLRS in the Zaporozhye region . Several houses were destroyed in the village of Rozovka . One civilian was wounded.

Image
The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to shell settlements on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region . Today, Novaya Kakhovka , Kakhovka , Naked Pier and Cairo have again come under attack . Civilian infrastructure was damaged. Russian troops, in turn, identify and strike at firing points, from where the enemy terrorizes the civilian population of the region.

Political events
On Western financial assistance to Ukraine

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the United States is ready to provide Ukraine with an additional $ 1.3 billion in financial assistance. The money will be used to repair power grids and upgrade infrastructure.

At the same time, in his opinion, in the end Russia will supposedly pay for the restoration of the territory .

In addition, the United Kingdom announced about $ 3 billion in aid , as announced by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak .

About Ukrainian nuclear weapons

People's Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Oleksiy Goncharenko said that the Ukrainian authorities should start negotiations with Western allies on the deployment of nuclear weapons in the country.

If the West refuses this, then, in his opinion, Ukraine needs to develop its own nuclear program.

On the training of Ukrainian pilots on the F-16

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with British media, said that Ukrainian pilots could begin training on the F-16 as early as August.

He again asked to transfer the planes as quickly as possible, since Russian aviation has great air superiority.

On the internal political conflict in Ukraine

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko complains that the central authorities are putting pressure on him and allegedly plan to force him out of his post.

Recently there have been many critical publications regarding the mayor's office due to the poor condition of the air-raid shelters in the city.

Today, the court sent the director of the department of municipal security of the Kiev administration, Roman Tkachuk, under house arrest in the case of the death of people near a closed shelter during shelling.

On the seizure of Russian assets in the EU countries

According to Bloomberg, European officials decided that they could not legally completely confiscate Russian assets worth 200 billion euros , as this could threaten domestic legal and economic consequences.

Instead, an option is being considered using the interest earned from these funds, the amount of which has already reached 750 million euros . Officials plan to discuss this issue next week in Brussels .

On sanctions against the Russian Federation

Representatives of the European Union agreed on the 11th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation, according to which the transportation of oil through the southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline will be prohibited .

This branch is the last one that delivers oil directly to Europe via pipeline. In addition, Russian cargo trailers will be restricted from entering the European Union.

Rybar
Author: Rybar

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

******

Security Council of the Russian Federation on issues of SVO. 06/22/2023
June 22, 13:21

Image

Statement at a meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation dedicated to the NWO in Ukraine.

Putin

1. We know that the enemy is going to supply additional foreign equipment to Ukraine.
2. Equipment can be supplied, but the mobilization reserve is not unlimited
3. The reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not yet been exhausted.

Patrushev

1. From 4 to 21 June, the RF Armed Forces destroyed 246 Ukrainian tanks, incl. 13 Western, 595 AFVs, 279 artillery pieces and mortars, 10 fighters and 264 UAVs.
2. The Russian Armed Forces destroyed more than 13 thousand Ukrainian soldiers involved in the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Shoigu

1. On average, 1336 people enter the contract per day in Russia, that is, every day we “get a regiment”
2. On average, Russian troops receive 112 units of various equipment per day.
3. 18 out of 109 American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles delivered to Ukraine were destroyed.
4. We do not see the need for new volunteers for the NWO.
5. The formation of the reserve army of the Russian Federation and the new army corps will be completed by June. They will be armed with 3,700 units of various equipment.
6. The total number of new contract soldiers is 114,000 people.
7. Preparations are underway to respond to further attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to conduct offensive operations.
8. In 2023, the West will supply Ukraine with 250 tanks, including 120 Leopards and 31 Abrams.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/89857 - zinc (broadcast of hostilities continues in the cart)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8440022.html

Google Translator

********

Latest news ‘from the front’

This morning’s edition of the news and discussion program Sixty Minutes on Russian state television opened with the now traditional montage of excerpts from U.S. television reporting on transgender issues. Today it was the latest court decisions on state legislation banning sex change operations in children. That sort of material is now the daily filler on Russian news, providing a nice distraction from the misery of war and a clear demonstration of what degenerates the Americans have become.

However, today this distraction was cut short and ten minutes into the program we were shown live images of the ongoing meeting of the RF Security Council chaired by Vladimir Putin. The meeting was virtual not in-person. The President was seated at his desk in his Kremlin office with the other participants shown on television monitors. We caught the moment when Defense Minister Shoigu was reporting to Putin on the summary results of the fighting since the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive at the start of the month: 246 Ukrainian tanks, including13 German Leopards, have been destroyed and a bit more than 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Yes, killed. In addition there must be the injured.

This, of course, was the part of the session fit for public dissemination. What really brought the Council together today was something else: to consider Russia’s response to latest developments in the war zone, namely the Ukrainians’ destruction yesterday of several bridges connecting Kherson to the Crimea. This looks very much like the tripwire that Shoigu had in mind a couple of days ago when he said that Russia will bomb the decision making center in Kiev if its territory is attacked. So we may well expect something to happen now.

Then there was surely another issue on the table arising from developments described in a 5-minute report by a journalist with the German Bild magazine which the Russians put up on the screen. Theat televised report was devoted to the consequences of the explosion at the Kakhovka dam and the emptying of the vast reservoir behind it, which, per the journalist was, as measured in square kilometers, was larger than the Berlin metropolitan area.

After opening his remarks with the Hail Mary assertion that the Russians were responsible for this disaster, he went on to describe very persuasively why the emptying of the reservoir now serves Ukrainian military interests perfectly. Most of the land which had been under water is now dry and can very likely support tanks. In the new conditions, the distance separating Ukrainian and Russian forces in the Kakhovka area has been reduced to zero from what had been a body of water varying from 5 to 31 kilometers in width. Moreover, the length of this new stretch of the front is up to 200 km. And in this new front line, the Russians have no defensive mine fields, tank traps, hidden artillery or well engineered trenches that have been so murderous to the attacking Ukrainian army in the Southern Donetsk and Zaporozhie fronts. This has to be one of the main “surprises” that the Ukrainian command had in mind as it looks for new ways to achieve a breakthrough. But, this potentially dramatic change is not necessarily what it seems: this is not some German move around the Maginot line that left the French with no response. Russia has the means to respond, but that takes us back to point one: to finish off the regime in Kiev now and not wait further.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/06/22/ ... the-front/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10784
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Fri Jun 23, 2023 12:05 pm

divert attention

POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 06/23/2023

Image

Already established in the certainty that the first two weeks of the Ukrainian counter-offensive have not achieved the expected objectives, the sides in conflict continue to adapt their discourse to a current reality that, according to their statements, they do not trust will last. "Ukrainian counteroffensive is having less success and Russian forces are showing more competition than expected by Western predictions, two senior US military officials say," CNN admits this week in a statement representative that even the establishment accept that things are not going as expected. The Ukrainian government had managed to create unrealistic expectations and both kyiv and its partners are now paying for the triumphalism and arrogance of the months of preparation for the offensive. The counteroffensive "is not meeting expectations on any of the fronts," says one of the sources quoted by CNN , making it clear that there is no doubt about the initial result of the fighting.

"We would definitely like to take bigger steps," Zelensky admitted to the BBC . Amid doubts about the Ukrainian ability to defeat Russian troops on the southern front, the goal of the Ukrainian authorities is now to control the speech and redirect it towards their turf. This is what the Ukrainian government is doing, which depends on these chances of success in the medium term to justify the demand for continued financial and economic assistance from its partners. Damage control and keeping the hopes of victory intact is also the goal of the media sympathetic to the Zelensky administration.

“The overall slower-than-expected pace of Ukrainian counter-offensive operations is not a sign of the broader Ukrainian offensive potential and Ukrainian forces may be laying the groundwork for a future major effort despite initial setback,” one of them wrote on Tuesday. the think-tanks most cited by the pro-Ukrainian media and pundits, the Institute for the Study of War , which has been forced to admit a lack of Ukrainian successes, but has also been unwilling to fail to see a glimmer of hope in future possibilities .

The head of Ukrainian diplomacy has stated along the same lines, who wanted to reaffirm that "Ukraine's objective is to liberate all of its territory from Russian occupation." No setback on the front is going to make kyiv renounce, at least for the moment, taking the war even to those regions that, like the Crimea, have shown their rejection of Ukraine with impetus. “This task is feasible with timely and sufficient support, but not in one fell swoop or in a single day,” Kuleba added. The dynamic is a repetition of the modus operand since the start of the war: promises that are impossible to keep - even their own partners admit that their chances of capturing, for example, the Crimea are slim - contingent on the provision of a correct, rapid and increasing supply of increasingly heavy weapons and with which to attack any objective that Kiev deems appropriate.

As a demonstration of Ukraine's ability to take the war to Crimea, Ukraine yesterday carried out a first strike using its British Storm Shadow cruise missiles. In the morning, the Russian authorities reported the attack on the bridge linking the Crimean peninsula with the Kherson region, causing surface damage reminiscent of the initial phase of attacks on the Antonovsky bridge linking the two banks of the Dnieper River. . The objective of these attacks is the same as on that occasion: to prevent the supply of Russian troops in a key area of ​​the rear. The advance towards Melitopol with Crimea on the horizon seeks to split the territory and the Russian group in the south in two, in which case, the loss of the supply route from Crimea would mean a critical situation for the troops of the Russian Federation. Reality clashes with those wishes, but Ukraine, which owes itself to its partners and their objectives, is obliged to show that it is capable of implementing at least part of this plan. The attack is also a way of diverting attention from the limited success of the offensive and the need to take action to solve problems that Ukraine and its partners seemed not to have anticipated.

The Ukrainian advances are scarce and are taking place at the cost of casualties and material losses that Ukraine does not see the need to justify, but which have already forced a change in tactics that has been appreciated even at the local level. Several days ago, even before the ISW spoke of an operational pause in the offensive in search of a readaptation to the circumstances based on the experience of the first days, the founder of the Vostok battalion already described this change: in the area where his soldiers were fighting, the large armored columns had been already replaced by small mobile groups and sabotage and reconnaissance actions. This change, which Russia has also been forced to make on previous occasions in different areas of the front, is the repetition of a phenomenon that has been observed since the summer of 2014 in the war in Donbass, in which the groups with greater mobility and flexibility -hence the prominence of units such as Sparta or Somalia of the now defunct Motorola or Givi– that the armored columns that both Ukraine and Russia have been able to verify run the risk of ending up besieged or destroyed.

In these two weeks, the images of destroyed Ukrainian vehicles have caused a certain excess of euphoria in certain Russian sectors, especially among the press. However, the relief that the improved defensive performance on the most compromised front has brought has not translated into excessive triumphalism on the part of the authorities, which, in the words of President Vladimir Putin, have shown unusual caution in this war. The Russian president, who a few days ago declared the first phase of the offensive unsuccessful, warned yesterday that the West will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons to continue the offensive. "It can be concluded that it is possible to supply additional equipment, but the mobilization reserve is not infinite," added Vladimir Putin, who sees in this the West's willingness to fight Russia "to the last Ukrainian." Although confident of having withstood the first Ukrainian onslaught, the Russian authorities try to avoid giving the image that the outcome of the offensive is already marked by this first phase. “We must proceed from the premise that the offensive potential of the adversary is not exhausted. A certain amount of strategic reserves have not yet been used and I ask that this be taken into account in the planning of combat operations. It is necessary to proceed from the real image of the situation”, insisted the Russian president. A certain amount of strategic reserves have not yet been used and I ask that this be taken into account in the planning of combat operations. It is necessary to proceed from the real image of the situation”, insisted the Russian president. A certain amount of strategic reserves have not yet been used and I ask that this be taken into account in the planning of combat operations. It is necessary to proceed from the real image of the situation”, insisted the Russian president.

Alexander Jodakovsky showed himself hours before, showing that the commanders on the ground are also aware that the hostilities have only just begun and the moment is dangerous. Khodakovsky called the false feeling that the opponent is not capable of offensive success a “dangerous delusion”. Ukraine has large amounts of weapons with which to complicate Russian logistics on the southern front and aspire to achieve tactical success that makes some of the objectives of this counteroffensive, which has only just begun, feasible.

However, there is perhaps no more glaring proof that things are not going well for Ukraine than the blatant attempt to misdirect the speech made yesterday by Volodymyr Zelensky and his closest advisers. Without the need for any evidence, the Ukrainian president recovered the conspiracy theory, in this case to refer to the Energodar nuclear power plant, under Russian control since March 2022. “Zelensky warns that Russia is preparing an attack against the Zaporizhia plant to release radiation”, headlined Europa Press , which, like other media, has given credibility to empty accusations according to which Russia would attack itself again, as it has been doing, according to the Ukrainian discourse, for nine years in Donbass and as it did in the North Stream.

"Whether the Kremlin is going to go ahead with this scenario," wrote Mikhailo Podoliak, "depends solely on the reaction of the global world." The government suspected -according to its own partners- of having committed an act of international terrorism in the Baltic Sea and which has repeatedly bombed the Energodar nuclear power plant, demands its partners to act immediately "not yesterday, today" to an imaginary plan. With this, kyiv has already managed to divert attention, at least temporarily, from its meager advances on the front and once again manages to make credible an absolutely implausible plan for a self-attack by the Russian forces. Bearing in mind that this type of speech has been used in the past as a prelude to bombings of which Russia was later accused,

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/06/23/desvi ... more-27569

Google Translator

*************

More Weapons Go To Ukraine But What Will It Do With Those?

Ukraine's counter-offensive has failed and it has no chance of a victory in the war.

Its best possibility to still sustain for a while is to now build several new defense lines and to pull back to those. Instead it is continuing to attack on too many fronts with little gains and large losses.

Yesterday the Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the situation with his Security Council.

Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Council, reported on Ukrainian losses:

As of today, we have the following statistics. From June 4 to 21, we destroyed 246 tanks, including 13 Western tanks, as well as 595 armoured combat vehicles and armoured cars. Of this number, we have destroyed 152 infantry fighting vehicles, including 59 Western models, as well as 443 other armoured combat vehicles. We have destroyed 279 field artillery systems and mortars, including 48 Western systems. We have also destroyed 42 multiple launch rocket systems, 2 surface-to-air missile systems, 10 tactical fighters, 4 helicopters, 264 drones and 424 motor vehicles.
Those numbers are a bit below the sums in my spreadsheet as given by the daily report of the Russian Ministry of Defense. I believe that Patrushev's sums are probably four or five days old. Patrushev gives the number of dead Ukrainians as 13,000 along all fronts. That is again a bit below my sums and likely behind in time.


Putin then asks his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu:

Vladimir Putin: I see.
Mr Shoigu, we know that the enemy is to receive additional Western equipment. What does the Defence Ministry think about threats in this connection?

Sergei Shoigu: Regarding current and planned military equipment deliveries, there are plans to supply 250 tanks, including about 120 Leopards and 31 Abrams tanks, throughout 2023. There are also 95 T-72 tanks that they have scraped together from all over the world. This is what we know about the planned deliveries.

There are plans to deliver 983 armoured combat vehicles throughout 2023. In all, 822 vehicles, the bulk of the shipment, including 740 Western models, is set to arrive during the third and fourth quarters.

In effect, we can also see that all arsenals, accumulated by the Soviet Union and countries of the former socialist bloc, have now been virtually depleted. We can say the same about former Ukrainian resources.

The intention is to deliver 273 155-mm artillery systems throughout 2023. This is more than two times less than had been delivered so far.


That sounds like a lot but Shoigu then makes this assessment:

In the context of the losses, listed by Mr Patrushev, and taking into account earlier developments, we now realise that the amount, due to be delivered throughout 2023, as well as those weapons that have already been delivered, will not seriously affect the course of hostilities. Additionally, most of the armoured vehicles and fighting vehicles belong to the previous generation, or even to an earlier generation. On the one hand, their armour is weak and ineffective, compared to modern equipment. Mr President, we do not see any threats here, all the more so as we are actively accumulating reserve equipment and service personnel.

That is good news. For the Russians. For the Ukraine military it means that it will again get as much as it has lost over the last three weeks except for artillery which is already scarce and will in future be even more so. But how long will that last if the Ukrainian army continues to attack?

Russia is still expanding its military and is creating new military units. According to Shoigu those have already receive 3,786 pieces of military hardware and are daily receiving 112 more units. I presume that to mean 'stuff that shoots or drives', i.e. cannons and armored vehicles of all kind. This is not all new stuff but also refurbished and upgraded depot equipment. But compared to what Ukraine will still get the numbers are just huge.

The Russian side now has two choices. It can go on attack, as it currently does near Kupiansk, or it can wait at the current lines until the Ukraine has thrown all that new stuff against those.

We will most likely see a mix of both. Russia may stay quiet in the south where it has good positions and attack in the north where Ukrainian militia attempt to make boarder raids on Russia. A wide security zone there would end that nonsense.

Posted by b on June 22, 2023 at 16:17 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/06/m ... .html#more

*******

The Silent Slaughter of the Flower of Ukraine’s Youth
JUNE 21, 2023

Image
Ukrainian Border Guards at a parade. Photo: Markiv Mykhailo.

By Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J S Davies – Jun 19, 2023

As Ukraine prepared to launch its much heralded but long delayed counteroffensive, the media published a photograph of a Ukrainian soldier with his finger on his lips, symbolizing the need for secrecy to retain some element of surprise for this widely telegraphed operation.

Now that the offensive has been under way for two weeks, it is clear that the Ukrainian government and its Western allies are maintaining silence for quite a different reason: to conceal the brutal cost Ukraine’s brave young people are paying to recover small scraps of territory from Russian occupation forces, in what some are already calling a suicide mission.

Western pundits at first described these first two weeks of fighting as “probing operations” to find weak spots in Russia’s defenses, which Russia has been fortifying since 2022 with multiple layers of minefields, “dragon’s teeth,” tank-traps, pre-positioned artillery, and attack helicopters unopposed in the air that can fire 12 anti-tank missiles.

On the advice of British military advisers in Kyiv, Ukraine flung Western tanks and armored vehicles manned by NATO-trained troops into these killing fields without air support or de-mining operations. The results have been predictably disastrous, and it is now clear that these are not just “probing” operations as the propaganda at first claimed, but the long-awaited main offensive.

A Western official with intelligence access told the Associated Press on June 14, “Intense fighting is now ongoing in nearly all sectors of the front… This is much more than probing. These are full-scale movements of armor and heavy equipment into the Russian security zone.”

Other glimpses are emerging of the reality behind the propaganda. At a press conference after a summit at NATO Headquarters, US General Milley warned that the offensive will be long, violent, and costly in Ukrainian lives. “This is a very difficult fight. It’s a very violent fight, and it will likely take a considerable amount of time and at high cost,” Milley said.

Russian videos show dozens of Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles lying smashed in minefields, and NATO military advisers in Ukraine have confirmed that it lost 38 tanks in one night on June 8, including newly delivered German-built Leopard IIs.

Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute explained to the New York Times that the Russians are trying to inflict as many casualties and destroy as many vehicles as possible in the areas in front of their main defensive lines, turning those areas into lethal kill zones. If this strategy works, any Ukrainian forces that reach the main Russian defense lines will be too weakened and depleted to break through and achieve their goal of severing Russia’s land bridge between Donbas and Crimea.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported that Ukraine’s forces suffered 7,500 casualties in the first ten days of the offensive. If Ukraine’s real losses are a fraction of that the long, violent bloodbath that General Milley anticipates will destroy the new armored brigades that NATO has armed and trained, and serve only to escalate the gory war of attrition that has destroyed Mariupol, Sievierodonetsk, and Bakhmut, killing and wounding hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainians and Russians.

A senior European military officer in Ukraine provided more details of the carnage to Asia Times, calling Ukraine’s operations on June 8 and 9 a “suicide mission” that violated the basic rules of military tactics. “We tried to tell them to stop these piecemeal tactics, define a main thrust with infantry support and do what they can,” he said. “They were trained by the British, and they’re playing Light Brigade,” he added, comparing the offensive to a suicidal charge into massive Russian cannon fire that wiped out Britain’s Light Cavalry Brigade in Crimea in 1854.

If Ukraine’s “Spring Offensive” plunges on to the bitter end, it could be more like the British and French Somme Offensive, fought near the French River Somme in 1916. After 19,240 British troops were killed on the first day (including Nicolas’s 20-year-old great-uncle, Robert Masterman), the battle raged on for more than four months of pointless, wanton slaughter, with over a million British, French, and German casualties. It was finally called off after advancing only six miles and failing to capture either of the two small French towns that were its initial objectives.

The current offensive was delayed for months as Ukraine and its allies grappled with the likelihood of the outcome we are now witnessing. The fact that it went ahead regardless reflects the moral bankruptcy of US and NATO political leaders, who are sacrificing the flower of Ukraine’s youth in a proxy war they will not send their own children or grandchildren to fight.

As Ukraine launches its offensive, NATO is conducting Air Defender, the largest military exercise in its history, from June 12 to 23, with 250 warplanes, including nuclear-capable F-35s, flying from German bases to simulate combat operations in and over Germany, Lithuania, Romania, the North Sea, and the Baltic Sea. The exercise has led to at least 15 incidents between NATO and Russian aircraft in the skies near Lithuania.

It seems that nobody involved in NATO has ever stumbled over the concept of a “security dilemma,” in which supposedly defensive actions by one party are perceived as offensive threats by another and lead to a spiral of mutual escalation, as has been the case between NATO and Russia since the 1990s. Professor of Russian history Richard Sakwa has written, “NATO exists to manage the risks created by its existence.”

These risks will be evident in the upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 11-12, where Ukraine and its eastern allies will be pushing for Ukraine membership, while the U.S. and western Europe insist that membership cannot be offered while the war rages on and will instead offer “upgraded” status and a shorter route to membership once the war ends.

The continued insistence that Ukraine will one day be a NATO member only means a prolongation of the conflict, as this is a red line that Russia insists cannot be crossed. That’s why negotiations that lead to a neutral Ukraine are key to ending the war.

But the United States will not agree to that as long as President Biden keeps US Ukraine policy firmly under the thumbs of hawkish neoconservative desk warriors like Anthony Blinken and Victoria Nuland at the State Department and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan at the White House. Pressure to keep escalating US involvement in the war is also coming from Congress, where Republicans accuse Biden of “hemming and hawing” instead of “going all in” to help Ukraine.

Paradoxically, the Pentagon and intelligence agencies are more realistic than their civilian colleagues about the lack of any military solution. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Milley, has called for diplomacy to bring peace to Ukraine, and US intelligence sources have challenged dominant false narratives of the war in leaks to Newsweek and Seymour Hersh, telling Hersh that the neocons are ignoring genuine intelligence and inventing their own, just as they did to justify the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

With the retirement of Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, the State Department is losing the voice of a professional diplomat who was Obama’s chief negotiator for the JCPOA with Iran and urged Biden to rejoin the agreement, and who has taken steps to moderate US brinkmanship toward China. While publicly silent on Ukraine, Sherman was a quiet voice for diplomacy in a war-mad administration.

Many fear that Sherman’s job will now go to Nuland, the leading architect of the ever-mounting catastrophe in Ukraine for the past decade, who already holds the #3 or #4 job at State as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs.

Other departures from the senior ranks at State and the Pentagon are likely to cede more ground to the neocons. Colin Kahl, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, worked with Sherman on the JCPOA, opposed sending F-16s to Ukraine, and has maintained that China will not invade Taiwan in the near future. Kahl is leaving the Pentagon to return to his position as a professor at Stanford, just as China hawk General C.Q. Brown will replace General Milley as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs when Milley retires in September.

Meanwhile, other world leaders continue to push for peace talks. A delegation of African heads of state led by President Ramaphosa of South Africa met with President Zelenskyy in Kyiv, and President Putin in Moscow on June 17th, to discuss the African peace plan for Ukraine.

President Putin showed the African leaders the 18-point Istanbul Agreement that a Ukrainian representative had signed back in March 2022, and told them that Ukraine had thrown it in the “dustbin of history,” after the now disgraced Boris Johnson told Zelensky the “collective West” would only support Ukraine to fight, not to negotiate with Russia.

The catastrophic results of the first two weeks of Ukraine’s offensive should focus the world’s attention on the urgent need for a ceasefire to halt the daily slaughter and dismemberment of hundreds of brave young Ukrainians, who are being forced to drive through minefields and kill zones in Western gifts that are proving to be no more than US and NATO-built death-traps.

https://orinocotribune.com/the-silent-s ... nes-youth/

The sad truth is that either side cannot see any recourse but to impose their terms militarily. It was the US which got us to this point by insisting that Ukraine not negotiate when it had a chance to retain most of it's territory. Russian terms will now be harsh, Ukraine will be reduced to the land-locked steppes it was before Russians started enlarging it in the 18th century.

Funny, those boys look Russian....

*****

Political crisis deepens in Moldova as Constitutional Court bans pro-Russian Șor party

Șor, which has six MPs in the current parliament, is a pro-Russian conservative populist party that has been organizing fierce protests against the government’s attempts to integrate Moldova into the European Union (EU) and its failure to tackle the ongoing cost of living crisis in the country

June 22, 2023 by Peoples Dispatch

Image
(Photo: via Facebook)

Moldova’s political tug of war between its pro-EU government and the Euro-skeptic opposition entered a new phase on June 19 when the country’s Constitutional Court banned the opposition Șor party, allegedly under instigation of the government. The court ruled that the pro-Russian party “was acting contrary to the principles of the rule of law and posed a threat to the sovereignty and independence of the country.” Moldovan President Maia Sandu and her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) welcomed the verdict, while opposition parties including the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) and the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) slammed it as “an extremely dangerous precedent with serious consequences for the political system of Moldova.”

Șor, which has six MPs in the current parliament, is a pro-Russian conservative populist party that has been organizing fierce protests against the government’s desperate attempts to integrate Moldova into the European Union (EU). It also protested the failure of the PAS government in tackling the cost of living crisis in the country.

The party, formed in 1998, was called the Socio-Political Movement “Equality” until 2016. Its leader Ilan Shor is currently in exile following his conviction in a case of money laundering.

Over the past few years, politics and society in the post-Soviet Republic of Moldova have been deeply polarized on the issue of ties with Russia and the EU. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, Sandu and her government, by stoking Russophobia, intensified the pursuit for EU membership last year, which was advertised as the solution to all problems faced by the people of the country. Sandu derided anti-government protesters as pro-Russian saboteurs and accused Russia of trying to overthrow the Moldovan government using the opposition parties, particularly Șor.

The PAS government’s plans to withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), an intergovernmental political and economic cooperation forum founded by the post-Soviet Republics in Asia and Europe, were met with strong opposition. The government’s bid to ban the public display of Soviet and Russian symbols also evoked massive protests. The opposition accused the government of fanning Russophobia amid the war in Ukraine to cover up corruption and its failure to tackle the socio-economic crisis. The annual inflation rate in Moldova stood at 16.3% in May 2023.

Following the verdict, the Șor party leadership announced that they will continue their political work According to reports, as the registration of the party has been revoked, legislators from Șor have to work as independents.

The Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) stated that “the constitutional court’s verdict undermines the foundations of the democratic principle of the multi-party system. Today’s precedent of banning the Șor party can be applied to any other political force and primarily to the PAS party which usurped power in the state. No doubt, this particular party will fall victim to its own precedent. The one who kills democracy will sooner or later be removed from the political arena.”

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/06/22/ ... sor-party/

*****

From the Telegram account of Slavyangrad:

Slavyangrad
Roman Donetsky writes about Zelensky's non-ideology. I will only add this: Fascism is the ultimate manifestation of liberal monopoly capitalism. Perhaps this manifestation has different characteristics when it's the financial capital that's in charge, rather than the industrial, but the fundamentals are ultimately the same. Zelensky is the emblem of Ukrainian Nazism, uses it as his tool (or others use it through him) and it is irrelevant what his personal ideology is, or whether he even has one at all, other than greed, power, and multifaceted gluttony.

The phenomenon of non-Nazism

Let me start by saying that Zelensky is not a Nazi. And he is not an idea man at all. A craving for money, popularity, cheap hype is not an idea. His whole team is like that. And this is more frightening than the Nazis, of which there are a lot in Ukraine.

What is a Nazi? It is a person who does not consider anyone except for the representatives of his own people to be human. He loves his own people, even if in an abstract and perverted way.

Zelensky is not this man. He considers his people insignificant. Pathetic worms. A gray mass. Biowaste. And this biowaste is only fit to be used to make money and secure the right to escape to the West when the time comes.

That is why he is fighting a war to the last Ukrainian. This is the reason for the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station [destruction]. This is why his defense of cities [turns them to rubble]. He does not care. In general, he does not give a damn what happens next. On the contrary—the greater the destruction, the more money the West will give. Money that can be stolen.

This was not conceivable even under Poroshenko. He was a feudal lord. He took care of his serfs. He protected the land as a resource. He preserved the remnants of industry. This [was his] profit.

But the feudal lords—the oligarchs—were overthrown. In their stead, people without roots came. No conscience. Without pity. Without Nazism [as an a motivating idea]. The oligarchs turned out to be snotty puppies in comparison. These people have no boundaries at all. Even the Nazis are despondent. Although… they feel good under Zeltz. They’ve been given the opportunity to kill and massacre. To dream about genocide, too. They’ve been thrown a few pennies.

In the end...I am serious about the Khokhol threat to blow up the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant. Because that’s what scorched earth is. As long as the West benefits, it’s all good. They don`t care what happens next.

I am [also] genuinely afraid for the Dnieper cascade of hydroelectric power plants. They may blow the whole thing up too. Just to depopulate the territory. I'm afraid for everything that can be blown up. And I expect anything and everything from them.

Pretty, corrupt, rootless boys are worse than the classic Nazis. Those at least put on the brakes when it came to their own. These guys don't have any at all.

https://t.me/s/Slavyangrad

******

Chronicle of the special military operation for June 22, 2023
June 23, 2023
Rybar

On the Zaporozhye and Yuzhnodonets directions : enemy units are making attempts to break through Russian defensive lines, but all of them are successfully suppressed by small arms and artillery fire.

At the same time, in the Starobelsk direction , Russian paratroopers are advancing in Serebryansky forestry : in the event of advancing and reaching the other side of the Seversky Donets in the Grigorovka area , the RF Armed Forces will be able to level the front line in the Seversky sector and eliminate the AFU grouping in Belogorovka .

At night, Ukrainian formations launched strikes with Storm Shadow cruise missiles on two bridges near Chongar between the Kherson region and Crimea - the facilities were partially disabled, until they are restored, supplies will be carried out along backup routes.

In turn, Russian troops hit several objects in the rear regions of Ukraine: in the Odessa region, an ammunition depot in the village of Belenky was destroyed , and in the Dnipropetrovsk region , a warehouse on the territory of the abandoned Constar turbine plant in Krivoy Rog .

Image

APU strike on bridges between Kherson region and Crimea

During the night, Ukrainian formations launched strikes with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on the Chongar Bridge , as well as an unused railway bridge across Lake Sivash. As a result, the roadway was damaged. There were no casualties. The strike on the bridge over the Chongar is not accidental - it is through it that the shortest route to Melitopol was laid . In the context of the activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye direction , attempts to disrupt the supply of the Russian group will continue further. In addition, such attacks are actively used by Ukrainian information centers: Ukrainian Telegram channels have begun to massively talk about an imminent attack on the Crimean peninsula in order to create panic and stress the population.

Judging by the markings on the wreckage of a rocket that flew over the Chongar Bridge, this is a product of the French company Matra BAE Dynamics Alenia, a leading European developer and manufacturer of rocket systems, which also produces Storm Shadow. The French variant of the missile is abbreviated SCALP-EG (Système de croisière conventionnel autonome à longue portée Emploi General, "multi-purpose high-precision long-range cruise missile with autonomous guidance"). The missile is based on the French-developed Apache cruise missile, which is also called the "runway killer".

Image
At the same time, it is noteworthy that the bridges to Chongar and across the Sivash were removed over a long period of time by the orbital constellation of NATO satellites. Both yesterday and the day before yesterday (as well as for a long time), according to intelligence reports, they reported on those objects on which space reconnaissance is being carried out. In addition to Chongar, other bridges were filmed on the Arabat Spit , in Tsukury and Chaplynka .

Strike of the Russian Armed Forces on the plant "Constar" in Krivoy Rog

Image
At night, the RF Armed Forces attacked several targets in the rear regions of Ukraine. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, the abandoned turbine plant "Constar" in Krivoy Rog became the target of the raid .

In total, four powerful explosions thundered in the area of ​​​​the enterprise . After that, until five in the morning, the sounds of secondary detonation were heard from the workshops, which indicates a possible defeat of the ammunition depot or other military property.

In addition to the plant in Krivoy Rog, Russian troops hit a target in the village of Belenkoe in the Odessa region near the bridge in Zatoka. According to colleagues from the War History Weapons channel , an ammunition storage facility also exploded there.

The situation on the front line and the fighting

Image
In the Starobelsky direction, units of the airborne troops continue to clean up the strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Serebryansky forestry . For two days of fighting, the paratroopers managed to occupy several enemy positions and move deep into the forest. In addition to the need to create a buffer zone around Kremennaya and regain positions lost last fall, Russian paratroopers are aimed at reaching the northern bank of the Seversky Donets and storming Grigorovka on the opposite bank.


At the same time, units of the RF Armed Forces have been continuing fighting on the eastern outskirts of Belogorovka for several months : despite the work of aviation and artillery, which forced the enemy to leave their positions in the quarry, they have not yet been able to advance further than half of the industrial zone.

In the Donetsk direction, the parties continue to wage fierce battles near Avdiivka and in Maryinka . Fire support for Russian units is provided by artillery crews, as well as tank and aviation crews.

Image
Positional battles continue on the Vremievsky ledge . The enemy units tried to break through to Priyutnoye from Levadnoye. As a result of the ensuing battle, five people were eliminated, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreated. Also, APU activity was noted near Makarovka. It is likely that the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine intended to storm the positions of the RF Armed Forces south of the village. Several strikes by Russian helicopters destroyed two AFVs. There are no significant changes in the vicinity of Novodonetsk. Over the past few days, the exchange of artillery fire has continued, but there have been no attempts to attack the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Image
In the Zaporizhia direction, enemy activity has decreased in recent days. Along various sectors, there are sluggish battles - mainly with the involvement of infantry. Today, attack helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces attacked a cluster of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Novodanilovka . In addition, cannon artillery guns were destroyed near Stepnogorsk and Lukyanovsky . Positional battles are going on in the vicinity of Pyatikhatki . The village is still in the gray zone - none of the parties has confident control over it. Also, the Armed Forces of Ukraine conducted reconnaissance in small groups from Charivnoye and Gulyaipol , however, the fighters of the RF Armed Forces repulsed the attacks.

Image
In the Kherson direction, after the shallowing of the reservoir, a road was found at the bottom through the old channel of the Dnieper, which until 1956 crossed the Nikopol floodplains. And unlike the dried-up channel, where it is full of silt, the remains of the road can be used to build a crossing and dash to the opposite bank of the Dnieper.

It is likely that the enemy may attempt an offensive along a new route. But the barges and landing boats, on which it was planned to land troops at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, are locked at the berths and are of little use in the current natural conditions.

Russian fighters almost daily hit exposed positions and accumulations of equipment on the opposite bank. The potential "road of death" is already visible to the naked eye (the objective control frame is on our map). And in the current conditions, both the enemy and our troops can try to use the new path - after three or four days the road should dry out completely.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

Image
The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to shell the border areas of the Kursk region . Civilian objects in Tetkino , Popovo - Lezhachy and Elizavetovka in the Glushkovsky district again came under fire. The warehouses of the agricultural enterprise, a car and power lines were damaged. In addition, during the night Russian air defenses intercepted Ukrainian drones over Kursk .

Image
In the Belgorod region, Ukrainian formations were fired at, including the Volokonovsky district : the enemy fired more than 20 shells at the village of Tishanka and the village of Krasny Pakhar . The roof and facade of one private residential home ownership, as well as a power line and a gas pipeline, were cut. There were no casualties.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to inflict massive strikes on the settlements of the Donetsk agglomeration : residential buildings and a gas pipeline in the capital of the republic are damaged, and civilian infrastructure facilities in Horlivka and Makeevka are damaged.

Image
Throughout the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continued to strike at the settlements of the Zaporozhye region . Tokmak and the nearby village of Tavria were fired from the HIMARS MLRS : four civilians were killed, another civilian with severe shrapnel wounds was taken to the hospital in the city of Melitopol .

In addition, in the morning, the village of Akimovka was under fire : one person was injured. Also, local authorities reported on the work of air defense in Melitopol .

Image
In the Kherson region, shelling of settlements on the left bank of the Dnieper does not stop. Over the course of today, the enemy has fired more than 35 cannon artillery shells at Novaya Kakhovka , Kakhovka , Golay Pristan , Vasilievka , and Tavriysk . In the past 24 hours, nine settlements were under fire in the region, including Alyoshki , Krynki , Staraya Zburyevka , Podstepnoye , Podlesnoye and Cairo .

Political events
About mobilization in Ukraine


In Kiev, after Ivano-Frankivsk, general mobilization was announced . The corresponding order of the military commissar of the Obolonsky district was published on the official page of the military commissariat. The requirement to appear at the military registration and enlistment office within ten days applies even to those who did not receive personal summonses or mobilization orders.

About the wealth of military commissars

Image
Since the beginning of the war, the family of the Odessa military commissar Yevgeny Borisov has acquired millions of dollars worth of real estate and cars in Spain .

Journalists became interested in the topic after information appeared about the acquisition by the family of the military commissar of a villa in Spain worth over three million euros, after which they found an estate and an office belonging to members of the Borisov family.

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

Google Translator

(Other images at link.)

******

RUSSIA OFFERS NEW BALANCE ON US BIOLOGICAL-MILITARY ACTIVITIES.
June 22, 2023 , 3:35 p.m.

Image
Russia calls for an international investigation into US military-biological activity (Photo: AP Photo)

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation monitors the military-biological activity of the United States and its partners in Ukraine and other regions of the world. A briefing by the Russian Defense Ministry offers an overview of all these clandestine practices.

The following is a summary of these covert activities reported by Federation intelligence.

*It was shown that the Walter Reed Research Institute of the US Army carried out the military-biological projects "UP-1" and "UP-2", which collected biomaterials during the fighting in Donbass from 2014 to 2020. This institute It has foreign subsidiaries with laboratories with a high level of biosafety and the capacity to work with dangerous pathogens.

*A subsidiary is located in Thailand and has its units with capacity to transport strains in Nepal, Cambodia and the Philippines, which in turn cooperate with 12 other countries in Southeast Asia.

*There is also a network of foreign affiliates under the US Naval Forces Medical Science Center, whose subordinate laboratories do work on pathogens in North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.

*According to Russian intelligence, these worldwide ramifications allow it to gain access to epidemically important versions of pathogens, which are potential bioweapon agents. Marburg and Ebola fevers, malaria and Rift Valley fever are a few.

*The Pentagon is forced to change its tactics to organize "dual-use" jobs in order to camouflage these activities.

*The Department of Defense, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) are sponsoring these efforts in Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Sierra Leone.

*In the same United States, during the last few years, the number of laboratories with biosafety levels BSL-3+ and BSL-4 increased significantly.

*They point out that the Kharkiv Institute of Veterinary Medicine was involved in the work under the US projects UP-8 and P-444. During its course, the routes of migratory birds were studied, the strains of the avian influenza virus that have a high epidemic potential and are capable of overcoming the barrier between species were taken and transferred abroad.

*The role of these projects in worsening the epizootic situation on the territory of the Russian Federation remains to be assessed.

*Russia pays attention to the mass death of birds in the Askania-Nova reserve in the Kherson Region, which had been caused by neglecting biosafety regulations.

Having the biolabs outside the United States avoids the risk of these dangerous pathogens spreading in their national jurisdiction, as has happened in other places where unusual diseases for these regions and their carriers have been registered, according to information from the Ministry of Defense. Russian.

https://misionverdad.com/rusia-ofrece-n ... es-de-eeuu

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10784
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Fri Jun 23, 2023 5:49 pm

Ukraine Losses in Counteroffensive Are Significant, Moscow Says

Image
Casualties of Ukrainian troops during the counteroffensive amounted to 13,000, According to the Defense Ministry and Security Council. Jun. 22, 2023. | Photo: Twitter/@RT_com

"It seems that Ukraine's Western allies have indeed decided to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian," Vladimir Putin said.


Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said Thursday that the Ukrainian Army has lost 246 tanks during its counteroffensive.

Between June 4 and June 21, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed 246 Ukrainian tanks, including 13 supplied by the West, according to the Russian official, who said that the casualties of Ukrainian troops during the counteroffensive amount to 13 000.

The senior official added that the Russian Army has destroyed 595 armored fighting vehicles, 279 combat artillery guns and mortars, 42 multiple rocket launchers, and two anti-aircraft missile systems, in addition to four helicopters, 264 unmanned aerial vehicles, and 424 units of automotive equipment.

His remarks came at a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the permanent members of the Security Council. On the occasion, Putin said that it is possible for the West to "supply additional hardware, but the mobilization reserve is not infinite."

"It seems that Ukraine's Western allies have indeed decided to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian," the president said.


The Russian president also said that the Kiev army's reserves "have not been exhausted" and warned Russian commanders to "take this into account when planning combat operations."

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, for his part, said about the progress of the special operation that the Ukrainian army has suffered "significant losses in both equipment and personnel" and has reduced its activity.

According to the minister, Kiev has forces to carry out new offensive actions with the continued arms supplies from the West, although the development of the special operation will not be affected, Shoigu said.

Shoigu added that Russian military reserves as part of a separate army will be completed by the end of June. A separate army corps, already more than 60 percent staffed in five regiments, will also be completed shortly, the official said.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Ukr ... -0018.html

**********

How US and UK Government Propaganda Specialists Collaborated with Nazis in Ukraine
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JUNE 21, 2023
David Miller

Image

A MintPress investigation has found that a host of Western government officials, intelligence agents and assets have been directly involved in intimate collaboration with Nazi groups and individuals since at least 2014. This has included involvement in creating and operating the Nazi-run kill list in Ukraine, which MintPress revealed recently.

While Western media have belatedly been forced to concede that there are Nazi influences in Ukraine, many journalists have insisted that the visible fascist patches on uniforms are only there to troll Russians and that they are insignificant and a gift to Russian propaganda. Still, other journalists admit to asking Ukrainian service members to cover up their Nazi symbols. Yet, as we shall see, this collaboration goes much further.

Perhaps a good place to start is with the ongoing role of a key intelligence-linked official who has taken on a propaganda role on behalf of Ukraine since the launch in February 2022 of what the Russian government calls its “Special Military Operation.” Meet Cormac Smith, a member of the first Irish bobsleigh team to qualify for the Winter Olympics in 1992. He has appeared in scores of news reports passing on Western propaganda talking points about the role of Russia in Ukraine. But who is Smith working for?

According to his own account, he is a “private citizen” supporting “Ukraine/global freedom.” Yet until December 2018, he was the deputy director of communications for the British Cabinet Office – the official body responsible for supporting the prime minister. He was also previously attached to the UK Foreign Office as the strategic communications advisor to the foreign minister of Ukraine.

Image
Cormac Smith | Who is he working for today?

Last May, The Irish Independent claimed that Smith is “an unlikely key player in the information war,” who “estimates he has given about 100 TV, radio and print interviews with the international media in the past few months to tell Kyiv’s side of the story.” Smith has a nice line in outrageous propaganda gambits, claiming that Russians are the actual Nazis and that they murder, rape and pillage, including the rape of children.

As it turns out, the source of many of the allegations of rape – including multiple alleged cases of rape to death of children – was the Ukraine parliamentary commissioner for human rights, Lyudmila Denisova. Her evidence was alleged to be a helpline set up to report allegations of human rights abuses. Her tales were too much even for the Ukrainian government, which dismissed her at the end of May 2022.

Last year, it was comprehensively demonstrated that her stories had little evidential basis. However, even before this, she had already reportedly admitted to “promoting fake news to persuade Western countries to send more arms and aid.” Smith nonetheless carried on making vague allegations of rape (including of children) for months afterward. Naturally, no evidence was ever cited. He repeated the rape allegation almost monthly between April 2022 and January 2023. (In 2022: May, August, September, October, November, and in 2023: January, April, May).

Image
“Systematic rape” of two million women “of all ages” | Disinformation from Cormac Smith
In April 2022, he concluded a tweet about the alleged rapes of “2 million women of all ages” with the line: “Russians are fucking animals, there is no other Russia, they must be defeated.”

Three weeks earlier, Smith asked, “Is there any difference between” Russian tank crews in Mariupol and “Nazi SS murderers who put Jews in the gas chambers.”

In December, he paraded claims that “Russians are much worse than Nazis.”

Image
Only following orders? Cormac Smith retails MI6 talking points
Image
“Russians are much worse than Nazis,” Smith in December 2022

Of course, Smith denies Maidan was a U.S.-backed coup, that NATO expansion did not cause the Russian intervention and that Ukraine “is not full of Nazis” integrated into the military, police and intelligence services. Thus, we find him at the forefront of Nazi apologism. But who is he working for?

According to his own account, “Since Moscow began threatening a full invasion, he has been in daily contact with former Ukrainian colleagues and friends.” As he told The Irish Independent:

‘I was out there in December [2021] visiting and they said it would be really helpful if you can help as a commentator because you really understand us,’ he says. ‘This is also an information war and I am trying to make a small contribution. Russia is a country that lies on an industrial scale, and we were trying to get people to see that for years, but it’s only now that the scales are falling from people’s eyes.’”

Curiously, this would appear to suggest that Smith is working for actors in Ukraine. However, he has on several occasions insisted he is doing it “pro bono,” meaning without being paid. According to his LinkedIn page, he has been in various self-employed consultancy roles since January 2019.

Image
Cormac Smith’s “Experience” | LinkedIn

Yet in September 2022, he tweeted that he had “six years experience of Ukraine, including two years working at the heart of her government.” This suggests that his self-employed role has involved significant work on Ukraine for an unknown client.

Image
Source | Twitter

Perhaps of more relevance to his actual role is the latter part of that admission: his two years in Ukraine. What was he doing there, and for whom did he work? It turns out that he was a British government agent. Perhaps he still is. Smith joined the U.K. Cabinet Office in April 2016. He gave this account on his LinkedIn page in 2020:

After three months at the Cabinet Office I was asked to travel to Ukraine to lend communication expertise to the country’s government as strategic communication advisor to their foreign minister. I was attached to the British Embassy in Kyiv and became the first foreigner to be embedded in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of Ukraine.”

“Over 18 months I was credited with introducing positive changes to…how the MFA communicated, not just in Kyiv but across the globe. I also worked with the Ministries of Health, Finance, Education & Science and the Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration; as well as advising both the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine and the NATO mission in Kyiv on crisis communication.”


Smith’s eighteen months in Kiev were followed by seven months in London with the National Security Communications Team (NSCT), a body in the U.K. Cabinet Office. Today, his LinkedIn page does not mention the NSCT, referring simply to the Cabinet Office. But back in 2020, it said otherwise.

What is the NSCT? At that point, the unit had just been set up and focused much of its efforts on influencing the public on the alleged Russian poisoning of the defector Sergei Skripal. Smith wrote in his now deleted résumé that “by the end of the Summer [of 2018], the NSCT had played a pivotal role in a ‘hands down’ victory over the Kremlin in the information war.” It is instructive to learn from this his key role in coordinating the lies and misinformation circulated by the British state in that period.

The Counter Disinformation and Media Development program in the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) was run by an honorary colonel in military intelligence. But The NSCT was funded by the U.K. Foreign Office’s Conflict, Stability and Security Fund (CSSF) and, as can be seen in documents published by the Foreign Office, the identity of the lead agency (indeed even the “type” of agency) was redacted on “security” grounds. The only agencies liable to redact in these circumstances are intelligence agencies, suggesting that it was MI6, the UK’s foreign intelligence agency. NSCT is thus revealed as a potential MI6-directed op.

Image
CSSF document redacted on “security” grounds | Source
Image
Cormac Smith’s Twitter profile circa 2017 | Source

Other NSCT personnel have traveled to Ukraine to advise the government. In 2018, Henry Collis of the NSCT attended and spoke at “The Hybrid War Decade: Lessons Learned to Move Forward Successfully,” held between November 7-8 in Kyiv. Unlike Cormac Smith, Collis also has a known history in military intelligence, having been a reserve officer in the Honourable Artillery Company, one of the constituents of the British Army Intelligence Corps.

STOPFAKE – NAZI APOLOGISTS

While advising the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Smith became involved with the team at StopFake (created just after the 2014 coup), including its “co-founder” Yevhen Fedchenko, an academic. On his return to London in 2018, he posed in his garden with a StopFake t-shirt. My “gaff [British slang for one’ home] is now full of memories from Ukraine,” he said. Unsurprisingly, he signs off the exchange with the Banderite fascist greeting, “Slava Ukraini!” (“Glory to Ukraine.”)

Image
Source

While seen by many Ukrainians as a hero and the father of the nation (a position the current government has promoted), Stepan Bandera was a Nazi collaborator whose group, the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN-B), helped carry out the systematic extermination of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians during World War Two. The full slogan originally accompanied by a Nazi salute of the kind all too familiar to students of Hitler’s Nazi movement was a call and response: “Slave Ukraini” – “Heroyam Slava!” (Meaning, Glory to Ukraine – Glory to the heroes!). Thus, endorsing this greeting is an indication of what might be seen as Nazi apologism.

Also advising StopFake in 2016-17 was the well-known U.S. official Nina Jankowicz, who, according to her own account, “advised the Ukrainian government on strategic communications under the auspices of a Fulbright-Clinton Public Policy Fellowship.” Prior to her Fulbright grant in Ukraine, Jankowicz managed “democracy assistance programs” to Russia and Belarus at the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, a core part of the “CIA sidekick” organization, the National Endowment for Democracy.

StopFake was created in March 2014, the same month as InformNapalm, which runs the kill list. It claims to have “launched as a volunteer project” “not supported financially or otherwise by any official Ukrainian organization or government agency.” This assertion is undermined a little by the fact that it does admit to receiving funding from a host of Western governments and intelligence-linked agencies, such as the Atlantic Council, the International Renaissance Foundation (the Ukraine branch of George Soros’ Open Society Foundations), the Foreign Ministry of the Czech Republic, the Embassy of the United Kingdom, and nearly $250,000 from the British Foreign Office.

StopFake has also received funds from the Sigrid Rausing Trust, which states that it paid the Media Reforms Center (the parent of StopFake) £205,000 (around $250,000) between 2015 and 2019. StopFake does not admit to the money which it received from the National Endowment for Democracy, the CIA front group.

The claim to be unaffiliated with the government is also undermined by a leaked Ukrainian Defense Ministry PowerPoint presentation from 2015 which lists StopFake as one of their “special projects.”

Image

Support for the idea it is a government cutout also comes from the fact that both Smith and Jankowicz were consulting it in their capacity as government advisers.

StopFake has a deserved reputation for Nazi apologism. For instance, in 2018, the site defended military boot camps for children run by the Neo-Nazi group, the Azov Battalion. In 2017, Jankowicz hosted a StopFake video episode about Russian propaganda and Ukrainian volunteer battalions.

On Jankowicz and StopFake, The Nation stated:

Painting neo-Nazi paramilitaries with an extensive record of war crimes as patriots helping refugees, all while working with a ‘disinformation’ group that turned out to run interference for violent neo-Nazi formations—that’s the experience Biden’s new disinformation czar brings to the table.”

Multiple established Western media outlets, including The New York Times, have reported on StopFake’s ties to white power or Nazi groups. But when local independent journalist Ekaterina Sergatskova co-authored a long investigation exploring these links, she received death threats and was forced to flee Kiev. The intimidation tactics suggest that StopFake has more than a passing similarity to the work of InformNapalm, which hosts the kill list Myrotvorets.

Further Nazi connections are visible in the personage of Irena Chalupa, one of three Ukrainian-American sisters deeply involved in pro-NATO propaganda networks. The sisters are – so it is reported – devotees of World War Two-era Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera and his OUN-B fascist militia.

Irena works for the U.S. state propaganda outfit Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty and was also (around 2015) a non-resident fellow at the NATO think tank, the Atlantic Council. In 2016, she regularly hosted debunking posts on StopFake. According to Ukrainian nationalist sources, both of her sisters, Andrea and Alexandra Chalupa, were founders of a propaganda outlet Digital Maidan, created in New York in January 2014, which agitated for the coup. Their “closest working partners” included EuroMaidanPress which was founded by Banderite thugs and regularly publishes pieces by a wide range of official U.S. propaganda outlets like Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Alexandra was co-chair of the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC’s) Ethnic Council and her fingerprints are all over the disinformation that the Russians hacked and leaked the Clinton and Podesta emails – a core claim of the Russiagate deception. In 2015, according to her own account, Andrea was close to Michael Weiss of the Atlantic Council and various other NATO propaganda operations, such as The Interpreter Magazine. The connection of all three to Banderite propaganda networks and of Irena and Andrea to the Atlantic Council is illuminating, given the role that it appears the Atlantic Council played in a further Ukraine related propaganda operation.

PROPORNOT

A supposedly independent website helping users to differentiate between real and fake news, Propornot emerged some eighteen months after the Maidan coup. Its domain name was registered on August 24, 2016, and its first blacklist of websites allegedly purveying Russian propaganda was circulated in October of that year. It complemented the kill list on Myrotvorets (the “peacemaker” website), hacking by the Ukrainian Cyber Alliance and the debunking work of InformNapalm, which MintPress revealed is the parent of both the former operations. Was Propornot part of the same op?

Unlike Myrotvorets or InformNaplam, Propornot redacted the name of the person that registered the domain. But that did not prevent the persistent Donbass-based journalist George Eliason from using basic scanning tools to reveal that Propornot was a product of The Interpreter Magazine.

The Interpreter was set up by Michael Weiss, a longtime Zionist and Neocon who is close to at least one of the Chalupa sisters. Weiss was previously been attached to the controversial U.K. think tank, the Henry Jackson Society – a group that has been widely accused of promoting Islamophobia.

Between 2013 and 2015, The Interpreter was run by the Atlantic Council. In January 2016 it became a project of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, a direct U.S. government propaganda operation. The organization even went so far as to encourage colleagues at the Atlantic Council to denounce its activities in the hope that they would not link the two organizations together. The same trick was used on the kill-list Myrotvorets, from which Bellingcat, for example, attempted to distance itself.

Later Weiss also got involved with New Lines magazine (described by journalist Max Blumenthal as hosting “a rogue’s gallery of U.S. regime collaborators, neocons and corporate media hacks”), where he showcased his investigative prowess reporting from “inside Ukraine’s psyops”, when he is himself deeply embedded in the psyops operation.

Propornot, of course, is on the same page as the other Banderite propaganda efforts discussed here. In 2016, it tweeted a puff piece by Radio Free Europe on the “Ukrainian ‘Hacktivist’ Network Cyberbattling The Kremlin” – referring to the work of InformNapalm – with the Banderite slogan “Heroyim Slava!” (“Glory to the heroes.”)

Image
Credit | George Eliason

The U.S.-backed coup of February 2014 came after significant Western involvement in Ukrainian politics. The Maidan “uprising” began in November 2013, and the government was replaced by February 2014.

This ushered in a substantial Western effort to advise the government on propaganda and “strategic communications” as well as extensive training of both military and civilian forces in the information and influence operations favored by NATO, the U.S. and the U.K. The evidence is that some of that advisory effort had already started in 2012 – well before the coup.

In 2015, a leaked PowerPoint file titled “Free Russia,” said to be from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, stated there was “co-operation” with two NATO groups (StratCom and Cyber Defense Centers of Excellence); three American groups (U.S. Special Operations Command, U.S. Cyber Command and Psyops); and two British units (the 15th (U.K.) Psyops and 77th Brigade).

The 15th Psyops ceased to exist in April 2015 when it was merged into the 77th Brigade, a grouping created on 1 January 2015, thus indicating British involvement in early 2015 at the latest. Amongst the revelations in a separate leaked NATO document from this period was that the U.K. military had been (prior to February 2015) training the Ukrainian forces in psyops/propaganda: “Ukrainian MOD [Ministry of Defense] receiving mentoring from JIAG [Joint Information Activities Group] (U.K. MOD) was mentioned as a past successful experience.”

The involvement of Western psyops in Ukraine continued throughout the period, and the U.S. group even posted images of their Ukraine activities on Instagram in 2019.

Image

A third leaked document also included references to a U.K. government-funded FCO CSSF project worth nearly £250,000 (U.S. $315,000). It was to be run in 2014/5 directly with the Ministry of Defense and the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, which expressed full “support” for the project. All activities “will be coordinated with HQ of armed forces, and will be implemented with the participation of Ukrainian official representatives.”

The purpose was to “discredit” Russian policy towards Ukraine, demonstration of “Putin’s regime responsibility for all Donbass people troubles,” demonstration of “Putin’s inner circle personal interest in destabilization in Ukraine” and “demonisation” or Russian politicians “that are most popular in Ukraine.” This project was led by an organization (the Ukrainian Institute for International Politics) that also claimed a range of additional Western funders. In 2014, for example, it received funding from the National Endowment for Democracy.

One Ukraine Ministry of Defense PowerPoint titled “Free Donbass” referred to “The analysis of NATO’s actions in the Balkans, as well as the conduct of Operation Iraqi Freedom,” which “demonstrated the importance of the so-called ‘perception management.’” This is said to include “public diplomacy, information and psychological operations (IPO), public information, disinformation, and covert action.”

In late 2022, Lt. Gen. Jonathan Braga, Commander of United States Army Special Operations Command, noted that “Our Psychological Operations combination exercise now incorporates synthetic internet and real-time sentiment analysis to educate students on the speed of information.” “The speed of information, the power of information ops, might be one of the greatest lessons learned from the events unfolding in Ukraine,” he said, adding that, “Ukrainians spent the past eight years—since the annexation of Crimea in 2014—learning a lot from special operators and other U.S. trainers.”

One panelist— “speaking under Chatham House rules that forbade reporters to attribute remarks” — said, “We’d spent eight years building rapport… and building deep relationships. And all of a sudden, when it’s game on,” they were called back to the United States.” “That did not go over well… We’re seeing a master class on [strategic communications] and psyops every day. But it started out with our SOF [Special Operations Forces] guys helping them out,” the panelist added; “Two of the first strikes on Feb. 24 into the Kyiv area were on the psyop-production facility…with long-range precision strike missiles. That’s how much value the Russians put into messaging.”

Western propaganda experts and intelligence officials have been deeply involved in advising Ukraine on how best to launder its image. Take the examples of Alicia Kearns, Chris Donnelly, Gerry Osborne, Ewen Murchison and Phil Jones – all of whom have been involved in propaganda and/or intelligence with the British state.

Alicia Kearns is a Conservative MP (since 2019) and was shortly thereafter installed as the youngest chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee as well as vice-chair of the All-Party Group on Ukraine.

Kearns has a history as a British government propagandist, working very closely with (if not in) MI6 at the Foreign Office. She listed herself as “’Cross-Government lead for Counter Daesh, Syria and Iraq Effort’ on her LinkedIn page, which indicates she was running the Counter-Daesh Coalition Communications Cell at the Foreign Office. There she oversaw overt and, what she has described in a leaked résumé, as “discreet” propaganda on Syria. The résumé was submitted in a bid for a government contract. Her activities at the FCO included working to soften the image of NATO proxy Salafi terror groups and to falsely implicate the Syrian government in chemical weapons attacks with a whole host of MI6 contractors, including ARK, Incostrat, CIJA and, most famously, the White Helmets/May Day Rescue.

Image
The first page of Alicia Kearns’s leaked resume shows her attachment to Torchlight and mentions a trip to Ukraine

Image
Alicia Kearns’s description of her “overt and discreet” propaganda activities

She then spent a period working covertly with MI6 contractors Torchlight in Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon. The tender documents issued by the government specifically state that “you may not mention that the client is HMG [Her Majesty’s Government]” This latter role was never mentioned on Kearns’ LinkedIn page, and she scrubbed all mention of her other derring-do once elected to Parliament in 2019.

Among her contributions on Ukraine, she said, “I remember being stood behind Ukrainian President Poroshenko at the NATO Summit in 2014 as he discussed the Minsk Protocol, a ceasefire agreed with pro-Russia separatist leaders. The atmosphere was full of cautious optimism and hope. Devastatingly, the violence returned.” Notably, She fails to acknowledge the significant Western involvement in the subsequent violence.

She also states that “in 2015… I visited Ukraine to support the Ukrainian Government,” where she spoke at a “Ukraine Government Communications Service” event, according to her leaked résumé. ‪She went back in March 2023 to meet Zelensky. She also takes pride in using the full Banderite slogan, “Slava Ukraini! Heroyim Slava!” on social media.

Image
Banderite apologism from Alicia Kearns, MI6 asset and Conservative MP | Source

Chris Donnelly is a former advisor to the NATO Secretary General and an Honorary Colonel in the British Army’s shadowy Specialist Group Military Intelligence (SGMI). He was involved in advising Ukraine from the first moment after the coup, writing a memo on March 1, 2014 (which was later leaked). “If I were in charge,” he wrote, “I would get the following implemented asap.” This would include “a cordon sanitaire” around Crimea with “troops and mines” and “Min[ing] Sevastopol harbour/bay.” “The government needs a strategic communication campaign,” Donnelly concluded: “I am trying to get this message across.”

In 2016, he oversaw a visit of five Ukrainian military intelligence personnel to the U.K. This was as part of his work with the Integrity Initiative, a Foreign Office-funded project alleged to focus on countering Russian disinformation. However, one of its principal targets was British Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn. The Ukrainian spooks were hosted and dined at the British government’s expense. Donnelly billed the Ministry of Defence for £6788 (U.S. $8,500) for the trip. Among those that they met while there were assorted British military intelligence operatives, including a day with the SGMI and with the British Army psyop outfit, the 77th Brigade.

In 2022 Donnelly was involved in plans to blow up the Kerch Bridge to Crimea (which were leaked after the bridge was bombed. The leaks were reported by Kit Klarenberg). It is notable that Donnelly’s Integrity Initiative FCO-funded propaganda project strayed into both Holocaust revisionism in the Baltics and Nazi apologism in relation to Ukraine, notably in the significant work it did with StopFake in 2016-18, during which both Jankowicz and Smith were there.

Image
Leaked Integrity Initiative document on the visit of Ukrainian intelligence officers

Lt. Col. Ewen Murchison worked in Military Strategic Effects, in the Operations Directorate of the U.K. Ministry of Defence, between September 2012 and August 2014. This is the new name for an MoD propaganda unit which it has adopted in part in order to divert attention from the fact that its role is propaganda, all the previous euphemisms (such as “psychological operations”) having been devalued by the discovery of previous lies. Murchison attended the first NATO Stratcom Center of Excellence steering group in Latvia in July 2014, at which Ukraine was a topic of discussion.

Image
Ewen Murchison, second from left, and Gerry Osborne, third from left, in Latvia in July 2014 | STRATCOM COE | CC

Col. Gerry Osborne was Strategic Communications Manager at the U.K. Ministry of Defence between December 2012 and August 2014 and then Strategic Communications Director until December 2014. In the former role, he undertook the following role with regards to Ukraine: “delivered and ran Strategic Communications campaigns for U.K. activity”; “Project Director for Strategic Communication capacity building missions” including to Ukraine and Georgia to address defense priorities and build governance in pre-post conflict environments.

In order to gain “global traction for the U.K. Strategic Communication Approach,” he also “took a leading role as U.K. MoD subject matter expert in the successful brand development of the Multinational Information Operations Experiment and NATO StratCom Center of Excellence and was a principal visiting lecturer to partners,” including in Ukraine. Osborne attended the 1st NATO StratCom Center of Excellence Steering Committee meeting in Riga, Latvia, on July 24-25, 2014 and contributed to its October 2014 study of “Russia’s Information Campaign Against Ukraine” along with Steve Tatham of the SCL Group. (Note that Osborne’s role in relation to Ukraine may have started before the NATO-backed coup in early 2014.)

Image
Source

Phil Jones – Another British advisor, Jones worked at the U.K. Ministry of Defence between 2005 and 2018. His last five years at the MoD were in the post of U.K. Special Defence Advisor to the Ministry of Defence, Ukraine, 2013 – 2018, in Kiev. We can note that this advisory role began prior to the 2014 NATO-backed coup in Ukraine.

Jones does not boast any particular expertise in strategic communications or influence ops on his LinkedIn page, but he did take part on February 19, 2015, in a NATO StratCom Center of Excellence (COE) “coordination meeting” to assess the “capacity building needs of the Ukrainian, Georgian and Moldovan wider security sector in the area of Strategic Communications (StratCom).”

He was in Kiev through the entire period of the coup and the development thereafter of Ukrainian propaganda activities and institutions and appears to have maintained a connection with the country, including serving as a “personal advisor” to the Minister of Defense in Ukraine under the aegis of the U.K. Government’s Stabilization Unit in early 2020 and since October of that year as a Board Member of the Centre for Defence Strategy, Ukraine.

It is not known how influential he was or was not in the creation of the Ministry’s kill list or the other cut-outs it created, including InformNapalm, StopFake and others. The center is financed by two of its “partners,” the National Endowment for Democracy and UKAid, a British government operation.

Image
Jones, right, at the NATO STRATCOM conference in Latvia in February 2015 | STRATCOM COE | CC

Image
Source

The 2015 NATO StratCom CoE conference was “part of the larger project to improve the strategic communications capabilities of … as well as the institutional strategic communications capacity” of Ukraine and the other countries. Leading that project were two further Western operatives, both of whom have military and intelligence experience, Steve Tatham and Nigel Oakes.

The minutes of the meeting were leaked, and the document was claimed by the chair of the meeting, Steve Tatham, to have been “subtly doctored” in a Russian “hack and leak” operation. It was claimed that one bullet point was added and that a contact name was removed from the document. This statement thus implied that the rest of the document was genuine.

Image
From left: Steve Tatham (Director of Operations, IOTA Global), Amb. Janis Karklins, Nigel Oakes (Commercial Director, IOTA-GLOBAL), February 2015 | STRATCOM COE | CC

Tatham was attached to the NATO center for that year and had previously been the commanding officer of the 15 (U.K.) Psychological Operations Unit in the British military until 2014. He then joined the MoD propaganda unit called Military Strategic Effects until his retirement from the service later in 2014. After that, he joined Strategic Communication Laboratories, a private PR firm that was later implicated in the Cambridge Analytica scandal.

Oakes had founded the firm and was thus Tatham’s boss. The import of that scandal was that the firm used a huge amount of Facebook data to influence the U.S. presidential elections and also the U.K. Brexit referendum in the interests of Russia. As it turned out, there was absolutely no evidence that this had happened either in the U.S. or in the U.K. Back in the real world, this document and other public information demonstrate that, on the contrary, SCL Group and its subsidiaries SCL Defence and Iota-Global (led by Tatham) were, in fact, working closely with Ukraine against Russia. This was even reported in the mainstream media, though the conclusion that the Russiagate hysteria was overblown did not percolate through.

So we have established that Western forces have been training and advising the government of Ukraine from before the coup, though noticeably more afterward. What did they do with this advice? They set up a range of cut-outs and front groups which they pretended were independent of government in order to aid plausible deniability.

Each was marked indelibly by Nazi apologism, or was run by Banderite ideologues with whom British and American officials evidently closely co-operated. The prominent role of Banderite Neo-Nazis in all of these Ukraine government propaganda operations suggests that Nazi apologism has spread into the core institutions of the government of Ukraine– perhaps more than the dominant Western view is able to admit.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/06/ ... n-ukraine/

*******

Can the European Leg of the Triad Break Free from the Atlantic Alliance?: The Twenty-Fifth Newsletter (2023)

JUNE 22, 2023

Image
Zoulikha Bouabdellah (Algeria), Envers Endroit Géométrique (‘Geometric Reverse Obverse’), 2016.

Dear friends,

Greetings from the desk of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research.

It is difficult to make sense of many events these days. France’s behaviour, for instance, is hard to square. On the one hand, French President Emmanuel Macron changed his mind to support Ukraine’s entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). On the other hand, he said that France would like to attend the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit in South Africa in August. Europe is, of course, not an entirely homogeneous continent, with problems afoot as Hungary and Turkey have refused to ratify Sweden’s desire to enter NATO at its annual summit in Vilnius (Lithuania) in July. Nonetheless, the European bourgeoisie looks westward to Wall Street’s investment firms to park its wealth, yoking its own future to the regency of the United States. Europe is firmly wedded to the Atlantic alliance with little room for an independent European voice.

At the No Cold War platform, we have been carefully studying these elements of Europe’s foreign policy. Briefing no. 8, which will form the bulk of this newsletter, has been drafted along with European Parliament member Marc Botenga of the Workers’ Party of Belgium, or PTB–PVDA. You will find it below.

Image

The war in Ukraine has been accompanied by a strengthening of the US’s grip and influence on Europe. An important supply of Russian gas was replaced by US shale gas. European Union (EU) programmes originally designed to fortify Europe’s industrial base now serve the acquisition of US-made weapons. Under US pressure, many European countries have contributed to escalating war in Ukraine instead of pushing for a political solution to bring about peace.

At the same time, the US wants Europe to decouple from China, which would further reduce Europe’s global role and run counter to its own interests. Instead of following the US’s confrontational and damaging New Cold War agenda, it is in the interests of Europe’s people for their countries to establish an independent foreign policy that embraces global cooperation and a diverse set of international relations.

Europe’s Growing Dependence on the US
The Ukraine war, and the ensuing spiral of sanctions and counter sanctions, led to a rapid decoupling of EU-Russia trade relations. Losing a trade partner has limited the EU’s options and increased dependence on the US, a reality that is most visible in the EU’s energy policy. As a result of the war in Ukraine, Europe reduced its dependence on Russian gas, only to increase its dependence on more expensive US liquefied natural gas (LNG). The US took advantage of this energy crisis, selling its LNG to Europe at prices well above production cost. In 2022, the US accounted for more than half of the LNG imported into Europe. This gives the US additional power to pressure EU leaders: if US shipments of LNG were diverted elsewhere, Europe would immediately face great economic and social difficulty.

Image
Reza Derakhshani (Iran), White Hunt, 2019.

Washington has started pushing European companies to relocate to the US, using lower energy prices as an argument. As German Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action Robert Habeck said, the US is ‘hoovering up investments from Europe’ – i.e., it is actively promoting the region’s deindustrialisation.

The US Inflation Reduction Act (2022) and the CHIPS and Science Act (2022) directly serve this purpose, offering $370 billion and $52 billion in subsidies, respectively, to attract clean energy and semiconductor industries to the US. The impact of these measures is already being felt in Europe: Tesla is reportedly discussing relocating its battery construction project from Germany to the US, and Volkswagen paused a planned battery plant in Eastern Europe, instead moving forward with its first North American electric battery plant in Canada, where it is eligible to receive US subsides.

EU dependence on the US also applies in other areas. A 2013 report by the French Senate asked unambiguously: ‘Is the European Union a colony of the digital world?’. The 2018 US Clarifying Lawful Overseas Use of Data (CLOUD) Act and the 1978 US Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) allow US companies extensive access to EU telecommunications including data and phone calls, giving them access to state secrets. The EU is being spied on continuously.

Image
Clément Jacques-Vossen (Belgium), Lockdown, 2020.

Rising Militarisation Is Against the Interests of Europe
EU discussions on strategic vulnerabilities focus mostly on China and Russia while the influence of the US is all but ignored. The US operates a massive network of over 200 US military bases and 60,000 troops in Europe, and, through NATO, it imposes ‘complementarity’ on European defence actions, meaning that European members of the alliance can act together with the US but not independently of it. Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright famously summarised this as ‘the three Ds’: no ‘de-linking’ European decision-making from NATO, no ‘duplicating’ NATO’s efforts, no ‘discriminating’ against NATO’s non-EU members. Furthermore, in order to guarantee dependence, the US refrains from sharing the most important military technologies with European countries, including much of the data and software connected to the F-35 fighter jets they purchased.

For many years, the US has been calling for European governments to increase their military spending. In 2022, military spending in Western and Central Europe surged to €316 billion, returning to levels not seen since the end of the first Cold War. In addition, European states and EU institutions sent over €25 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Prior to the war, Germany, Britain, and France were already amongst the top ten highest military spenders in the world. Now, Germany has approved €100 billion for a special military upgrading fund and committed to spend 2% of its GDP on defence. Meanwhile, Britain announced its ambition to increase its military spending from 2.2% to 2.5% of its GDP and France announced that it will increase its military spending to around €60 billion by 2030 – approximately double its 2017 allocation.

This surge in military spending is taking place while Europe experiences its worst cost of living crisis in decades and the climate crisis deepens. Across Europe, millions of people have taken to the streets in protest. The hundreds of billions of euros being spent on the military should instead be redirected to tackling these urgent problems.

Decoupling from China Would Be Disastrous
The EU would suffer from a US-China conflict. A significant part of EU exports to the US contains Chinese inputs, and conversely, EU goods exports to China often contain US inputs. Tighter export controls imposed by the US on exports to China or vice versa will therefore hit EU companies, but the impact will go much further.

The US has increased pressure on a variety of EU countries, companies, and institutions to scale down or stop cooperation with Chinese projects, in particular lobbying for Europe to join its tech war against China. This pressure has borne fruit, with ten EU states having restricted or banned the Chinese technology company Huawei from their 5G networks as Germany considers a similar measure. Meanwhile, the Netherlands has blocked exports of chip-making machinery to China by the key Dutch semiconductor company ASML.

In 2020, China overtook the US’s position as the EU’s main trading partner, and in 2022, China was the EU’s largest source for imported goods and its third largest market for exported goods. The US push for European companies to restrict or end relations with China would mean limiting Europe’s trade options, and incidentally increasing its dependence on Washington. This would be detrimental not just to the EU’s autonomy, but also to regional social and economic conditions.

Image
Georgi Baev (Bulgaria), Name, 1985.

Europe Should Embrace Global Cooperation, Not Confrontation
Since the end of the Second World War, no single foreign power has wielded more power over European policy than the US. If Europe allows itself to be locked into a US-led bloc, not only will this reinforce its technological dependence on the US, but the region could become de-industrialised. Moreover, this will put Europe at odds not only with China, but also with other major developing countries, including India, Brazil, and South Africa, that refuse to align themselves with one country or another.

Rather than follow the US into conflicts around the world, an independent Europe must redirect its security strategy towards territorial defence, collective security for the continent, and building constructive international links by decisively breaking away from paternalistic and exploitative trade relations with developing countries. Instead, fair, respectful, and equal relationships with the Global South can offer Europe the necessary and valuable diversification of political and economic partners that it urgently needs.

An independent and interconnected Europe is in the interests of the European people. This would allow vast resources to be diverted away from military spending and towards addressing the climate and cost of living crises, such as by building a green industrial base. The European people have every reason to support the development of an independent foreign policy that rejects US dominance and militarisation in favour of embracing international cooperation and a more democratic world order.

Image
Aida Mahmudova (Azerbaijan), Non-Imagined Perspectives, 2018.

The No Cold War briefing above asks an important question: is an independent European foreign policy possible? The general conclusion, given the balance of forces that prevail in Europe today, is no. Not even the far-right government in Italy, which campaigned against NATO, could withstand pressure from Washington. But, as the briefing suggests, the negative impact of the Western policy of preventing peace in Ukraine is being felt daily by the European public. Will the European people stand up for their sovereignty or will they continue to be the frontline for Washington’s ambitions?

Warmly,

Vijay

https://thetricontinental.org/newslette ... gn-policy/

*******

Clown Prince Zelensky’s Nero Decree: Destroy Ukraine

Declan Hayes

June 22, 2023
The latest of a string of war crimes by the Zelensky junta not stop the fate that awaits their rotten Reich.

Zelensky’s Nero Decree is now live. Zelensky’s Fourth Reich, taking a leaf out of Hitler’s play-book at the Oder and Neisse rivers, has flooded the Dnieper basin, with all the collateral damage German citizens had to suffer during the last weeks of Hitler’s 1000 year Reich. As Zelensky’s Nazis, together with their British SAS and Yankee Navy Seal buddies, have also blown up the Kupyansky ammonia pipeline, the end, perhaps even in the form of countless nuclear mushroom clouds, may well be nigh for all of us. Such is life.

Just as Hitler’s Oder and Neisse war crimes could not stop the Red Army, so also must this latest of a string of war crimes by the Zelensky junta not stop the fate that awaits their rotten Reich. Irrespective of whatever collateral damage the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant suffers and irrespective of whatever loss of human life this indiscriminate flooding causes, Zelensky and all others implicated in this war crime must be held to account, just as Himmler, who commanded the Reich’s Oder forces (before his gross ineptitude caused him to be replaced) was going to be held to account by the hangman’s rope at Nuremberg.

Not everybody agrees that the Ukrainian Nazis and their Anglo-American enablers, who have a track record of such outrages in Syria and Palestine, are the culprits. Retired American Army officer Douglas Macgregor thinks the dam’s destruction might have been due to the wear and tear of previous attacks on it and American puppet (and EU boss) Ursula von der Leyen predictably believes Putin did it.

Fair enough! Von der Leyen can explain her reasoning when she stands trial, as she must, in Moscow, for a litany of war crimes, including her collaboration in this and the earlier Nordstream pipeline attack.

As we await von der Leyen getting her just desserts, let’s return to Hitler’s original Nero Decree, and then on to Zelensky’s. Once Hitler realised the war was irretrievably lost, to Speer’s horror, his 19 March Nero edict decreed that any and everything of value was to be destroyed so that the Soviets could not benefit from it. Hitler’s Darwinian rationale for this treachery was that the Soviets had proved themselves to be the stronger and therefore, in line with his mad-cap theory, the Germans had to perish from the face of the earth.

Zelensky’s rationale, though no less evil, is much much more mercenary. He cares no more for Ukraine, nor for the Russian people, language and culture he was raised in, than does the man in the moon. His motive and those like George Soros, Ursula von der Leyen and the NATO cuckoo cliques who rule the roost in Romania, Moldova and Poland, who stand behind him, is pecuniary. In Mafia parlance, it is strictly business.

There are, as of today, over 300,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers, young lives wantonly sacrificed for the insatiable greed of Zelensky and his clique, who include not only the above-named rogues but also cretins like Olena Semenyaka, who was the subject of the second article I wrote for this august publication and whose musings of a Fourth Intermarium Reich is as ridiculous as anything that ever came out of the mouth of Hitler, or any of his fellow-morons.

For make no mistake about it. Semenyaka and all of Ukraine’s Nazi intelligentsia (sic) are morons and their dreams of a Fourth Intermarium Reich are more moronic than anything Hitler, Himmler or any of those other Austro-German morons ever concocted. The only call NATO has for Ukraine, Poland, Romania and the Baltics is to use them to undermine the EU’s Franco-German axis or, like now, to pin prick Russia. Ukraine’s dire economic fundamentals dictate that there can be and never will be an Intermarium Reich.

As politics is the art of the possible, rather than the impossible daydreams of Semenyaka or Hitler (who got his simplistic military strategies from reading Karl May, a writer of children’s cowboy stories), let’s examine how something, anything of Ukraine can be salvaged from the wreckage Zelensky has wrought.

The first vector is Russia’s Armed forces, who should be given a clear path to do whatever it is they have been ordered to do. No Ukrainian should die opposing them in Odessa or anywhere else that has always been Russian; 300,000 dead Ukrainians is 300,000 too many.

Next off are Ukraine’s Nazi units, who force conscripts into the various meat grinders Russia’s armed forces have created for them. If anyone deserves to be fragged, it is they.

But fragging on its own will not save the day. The patriotic and sane officers in the Ukrainian armed forces are duty-bound to take Zelensky’s Ukrainian and Anglo-American enforcers out of the picture, either by giving away their positions to the Russians or dispatching them themselves.

NATO’s Nazi war machine must be declawed, not for the sake of Russia but for the sake of Ukraine and, more importantly, Ukrainians. Talk of reconstruction is talk of pie in the sky, the same rubbish Hitler spouted in his last hours in the bunker and the same nonsense parasites like Semenyaka spout from their own padded bunkers.

Zelensky, Soros, Boris Johnson, Hunter Biden and those other gangsters behind Ukraine’s Nero Decree want a Ukraine on their terms, not on those of the mothers, wives, daughters and sisters of Ukraine’s 300,000 (and sadly, still counting) dead. U.S. Secretary Blinken’s talk of Ukraine being a second Israel, Semenyaka’s new Jerusalem, is just that, talk to bamboozle and beguile the simple of mind and pure of heart.

Blinken’s sweet talk of “reimagining” Ukraine “with new industries, trade routes, and supply chains connected with Europe and other markets around the world” are the honeyed words of a deluded Zionist oaf, who serves a government that has deliberately de-industrialised Europe and destroyed “trade routes, and supply chains connected with Europe and other markets around the world”. NATO’s only possible benefit is for the U.S. to occupy the Crimean peninsula and rob both Ukraine and Russia blind. And guess what? Russia, no matter how many Hiroshimas and Nagasakis they are threatened or even visited with, will never allow that. Unless they want a no holds barred world-wide nuclear showdown, Blinken, Soros, Biden and the rest of them will have to find somewhere else to launder their ill-gotten gains.

Ukraine, to Soros, Blinken, Biden and their ilk, is but a quarry, where women act as surrogate mothers for deep-pocketed Westerners and where even its very earth only exists to be looted. Whoever loses in Ukraine, you can be damned sure Soros, Blinken, Biden and Zelensky, with his numerous mansions spread across the world, will not be amongst them.

Losing and dying are, as the families of Ukraine’s 300,000 dead know, for others, for those who do not get to play GI Joe in front of the Pope, G7 or Pfizer’s Ursula von der Leyen, whose German homeland, true to its Nazi traditions, has imprisoned 48-year-old Ukrainian Elena Kolbasnikova for merely saying that maybe, just maybe, Russia has a point.

Russia’s dilemma. Lavrov’s dilemma, is this. You cannot argue with armed fools, with Nazis or with serial predators like George Soros and his loathsome family. Sadly, you must tell, as Putin told Gerasimov and Surovikin, that we have a problem that necessitates their expertise be brought to bear on it. And, as Gerasimov, Surovikin and their colleagues tell their men that they must liberate Odessa, they might also like to remind Zelensky, Ukraine’s Nero, how Roman Emperor Valerian ended up in Edessa, crushed underfoot by the horse of Shapur, King of the Persians.

Semenyaka and Zelensky, like Hitler and Himmler before them, are fantasists. Too much dreaming about third, fourth and fifth Reichs. Too much nose candy, Karl May and watching re-runs of The Man Who Would Be King (not the Seán Penn version). Gerasimov and Surovikin are, in contrast, practical men, who do not suffer from the rank narcissism that was the trademark of Nero, just as it is now of Zelensky, who has decreed that all traces of Russian history or culture in Ukraine must be erased. Deus vult, you moron.

Once Zelensky’s Nero decree runs its course and Gerasimov and Surovikin counter-attack, the main thing that is going to get erased is the rank corruption and needless deaths Zelensky built his fortune on. Although I can’t wait for the end of Ukraine’s Nero, that end will be, like that of Germany’s Nero on 30 April 1945 at a time and place the Russian Armed Forces choose. Unless that is, Zelensky chooses to stand in the dock with von der Leyen and NATO’s other crooks, in which case that pathetic actor will get one more chance to strut and fret his time upon the stage before, like Hitler and Nero before him, he is heard from no more.

https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023 ... y-ukraine/

********

War in Ukraine. Summary 06/23/2023
June 23, 16:21

Image

At the middle of the day 06/23/2023:

1. Zaporozhye direction.
The enemy had no significant results in the area of ​​Pyatikhatki, Rabotino, Makarovka and Harvest. Quite intense fighting continues in a number of areas. The enemy does not use large groups of armored vehicles. In the West, June 21-23 became the day of accepting the failure of the June offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Zelensky's gang also indirectly acknowledged the failure of the offensive by blaming the West.

2. Kupyanskoe direction.
It is reported that our troops continue to consolidate in the forest area west of Sinkovka, and also crossed Oskol and created a small bridgehead on the other side. There is no talk yet about going to the outskirts of Kupyansk.

3. Swatov direction.
There is a slight advance to the west of Kremennaya in the wooded area. The enemy stubbornly resists and tries to counterattack.

4. Seversky ledge.
Our troops are entrenched in their positions in the Disputed area. Activation of pressure on the village itself is expected. The enemy is preparing attacks in the Razdolovka area.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8442421.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10784
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV

Post by blindpig » Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:10 pm

According to the plan
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 06/24/2023

Image

In war, as in an electoral process in which all parties claim to have won, everything always goes "according to plan," especially for that side that has exaggerated expectations of its present or future actions and finds it difficult to translate those plans into tangible progress. Taking into account the importance of maintaining the morale of the troops at the front and in the rear and appearances, the war reports usually have high doses of fiction in which their own epic is highlighted, the sins of others are denounced and the they highlight large enemy casualties generally underestimating their own. Sometimes the clash between reality and fiction in the official discourse is a shockfor the population once the circumstances are impossible to hide. This was the case of the 2022 war in Nagorno-Karabakh, in which practically until the final defeat, the Armenian side claimed victories that were coming closer and closer to home. However, the management of the discourse and the possibility of imposing the desired narrative may result in control of the information to mitigate the damage that an excessive deviation from the facts could cause in its presentation to the population.

Since it began in the summer of 2014, Ukraine has been known for the use of hyperbole to highlight its successes, real or imagined, and the most fantastic creativity when it comes to alleging other people's plans. Gone are the weeks in which Ukraine claimed daily to have "liquidated" hundreds of "terrorists" in that first phase of the war in which it aspired to defeat the People's Republics by military means and deny all political legitimacy to the protests against which he had sent the army. Since then, Kiev has actively used to its advantage the ease of not knowing Russia and the willingness of Western countries to lend credibility to any Russian plan, no matter how crazy. Nor has it mattered that those wild claims have turned out to be false. In August 2015,The Times published the plans of the Donetsk People's Republic, then led by Alexander Zakharchenko, which was working to produce, with the help of Russian scientists, a dirty bomb. Already at that time, Ukraine was capable of placing absolutely unrealistic messages in the Western press accusing Russia of all kinds of imaginary acts.

The same strategy would be followed by kyiv in the Minsk process, in which it always falsely boasted that it had already fulfilled its commitments and accused Russia of refusing to fulfill its commitments. Taking into account that Russia was the only guarantor of the agreements and it was the People's Republics, with which Ukraine refused to negotiate, the falsehood of the Ukrainian discourse was much more damaging for seven years than any fantastic story about imaginary weapons that nobody was going to develop. . However, Kiev's ability to place these messages, both those related to Ukraine's demands and those of existing plans only in the minds of Ukrainian officials, has set a precedent that now marks the media and communication reality.

For eight years, Ukraine consistently and consciously claimed that it was Russia that was shelling the villages on the front line of Donbass. Insulting the intelligence of the population on whom he had imposed a blockade that he refused to lift, the Ukrainian president even went so far as to make speeches supposedly addressed to the men and women of the DPR and the PRL - the occupied territories according to Ukraine - in which it was explained to them that the Ukrainian shelling they could hear was nothing more than Russian propaganda. The lack of interest in the fate of a population that identified with the side described as the enemy in the West always made the task easier. After eight years of war, even the youngest had learned to detect the difference in sound between the arrivals andexits and to detect the origin of the projectiles. However, alleging that the population of Donbass that did not manifest itself as pro-Ukrainian was simply imbued with Russian propaganda was always one of the bases of the Kiev narrative, which thus sought to eliminate all political legitimacy to the demands of the population, which had correctly understood since the spring of 2014 that nationalism would be the basis of the new government's agenda. Consolidated as a pressure tool against Russia, Ukraine was able to see in its position a possibility to impose its postulates even more easily.

In this way, long before the Russian troops crossed the border in the direction of Kiev, Kharkov or Kherson, the maxim that Russia is always guilty had already been installed.and any concern, even minimal, for the rights, freedoms and even the security of the population of the territories that Ukraine had tried to recover by military means had disappeared from the conversation. That disinterest, and perhaps even contempt, also extended to the population of Crimea, which despite not having risen up in arms like that of Donbass, had achieved accession to Russia, something that neither Kiev nor its partners were ever willing to forgive. Hence, there were no complaints during the years when Ukraine blocked the passage of water from the Dnieper to the Crimean channel, thus ruining the agriculture of its black lands.

Kiev, which over the years has repeatedly recommended that the Russian population - that is, the vast majority - leave the peninsula and Donbass to move to Russia, now adds a more explicit threat to that suggestion .. The constant declarations about what awaits the population of those territories that Ukraine hopes to recover and where their culture will be, if government officials are to be believed, forever prohibited make clear the will to inflict collective punishment for the crime of non- having accepted the change of government in February 2014. This week, Oleksiy Danilov recommended "all Russians" to flee over the Kerch bridge "as long as possible", implying that Ukraine aspires to destroy it. And yesterday, following the line of taking for granted a victory in Crimea that even Pentagon officials don't believe in, Ukraine insisted on its psychological warfare play.

For this, kyiv has needed that creativity in the drafting of war reports that is so characteristic of any conflict. Although the news this month is the inability of Ukraine to reach the first line of Russian defense on the central front, that of Zaporozhye, Hanna Maliar claimed that "everything is going according to plan." The Ukrainian authorities say they have stopped the Russian advance in the east - a series of local offensives that do not really go beyond the active defense of vulnerable areas, so they are more important in a defensive sense than offensive - and continue to claim that they are advancing In the south. Barely a day after beginning an expected ongoing attack on the Crimea-Kherson bridge at Chongar, Ukraine once again used its British missiles to attack Genichesk, city ​​to which the Russian authorities moved after their departure from Kherson. Ukrainian troops do not advance towards Crimea as they sporadically claimpro- Ukrainian pundits, but these attacks are enough to keep the triumphalist talk of sure victory going.

"Ukrainian intelligence suggests that Russia could be preparing to leave Crimea," Europa Press headlined yesterday in a note in which it was not even necessary to read the body to guess the source, which could only be Kiril Budanov or, now that his position Media management of the speech has been assumed by his deputy, Andiy Yusov. Ukrainian military intelligence, which has repeatedly lied about its involvement in cross-border raids in Russia, which has alleged that its partisans control part of the oblastof Belgorod and that it is a serious candidate for having committed all kinds of murders in the Russian rearguard and in the territory of the Russian Federation, now alleges that Moscow would be preparing its withdrawal from the most important territory, best defended and where the population is, in a more clear, pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian.

In a context of statement journalism without the need for context or credibility verification, Ukraine can afford the same week to allege that Russia is planning an attack on the nuclear power plant under its control and with which to cause a humanitarian catastrophe while recommending to the population that don't panic because of a nuclear alert that she has invented herself. At the same time, kyiv can balance defending that Russia is preparing to withdraw from Crimea with warning that Russian troops are reinforcing their positions on the peninsula. Consistency is not one of the characteristics of war, especially when the objective is to cause panic among the civilian population, in this case, on both sides of the front. In that sense, of course, everything is going according to plan.

In recent hours, Ukraine's ability to control speech and minimize the damage of the absence of military victories has been joined by a godsend. The confrontation between the Ministry of Defense and Evgeny Prigozhin has finally broken out and the owner of Wagner has declared rebellion, not against the State or its president, but against its military authorities. At a time when Russia could argue that its defensive plans were meeting their objectives, the internal destabilization caused by the private army's reliance on a person with aspirations for power has brought the country to one of the most tense moments since Boris Yeltsin used tank fire against the Duma in Moscow in 1993. Prigozhin is in Rostov, where his paramilitary army claims to have taken all the military objectives. Moscow has woken up armored and "with anti-terrorist measures" among an open rebellion caused by the inability of the State to stop a confrontation that had been on the rise for months. The Russian president has not yet spoken, although he should do so in the next few hours.

https://slavyangrad.es/2023/06/24/segun ... more-27575

Google Translator

************

The Ukrainian Counter-Offensive Had No Chance. NATO Failed To Explain That.

The 'west' pushed Ukraine into a hopeless counter-offensive based on false assessments and wild expectations.

Russian troops were claimed to be weak, untrained and unprepared for an Ukrainian attack. On the other side it was claimed that the freshly mobilized Ukrainian men which received 'western' weapons and training would have the necessary quantity and quality to overcome Russian defenses.

Ukrainian troops, as well as the public, were told to believe that bullshit.

Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo - 0:55 UTC · Jun 23, 2023
NATO training explained by an Ukrainian POW
-> Psychologists trained them to not be afraid and that Russia is exhausted and weak ...
Embedded video From Maimunka News


Image

Any rational and neutral military assessment showed a far more realistic picture. One in which Russia would always defeat the planned counter-offensive.

At the end of 2022 the Ukrainian army had been exhausted and had been already been destroyed twice. The Russians had first destroyed large parts of the original equipment of the Ukrainian army and then the Soviet era equipment that was brought to Ukraine from former Warsaw Pact nations.

More importantly they had killed or wounded many of the experienced non-commissioned staff (Sergeants etc) and lower rank officers of the Ukrainian military that command and are the core of each company. The newly mobilized Ukrainian forces did not have the knowledge or training necessary to replace them.

'Western' equipment is more complex than Soviet era stuff. It also requires more specialized maintenance. The Ukraine received a zoo. The many types of equipment and the many incompatible kinds of ammunition they use are a logistic nightmare.

'Western' training for the mobilized Ukrainian forces did not bring up more capable soldiers than Soviet training would have done. Those who watched NATO stumble in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya should have recognized that.

Russian on the other side mobilized 300,000 soldiers who mostly had been contract soldiers before they had returned to private life. They received extensive refresher training. They now mostly get paid more than in their civilian life which certainly helped to increase their motivation.

Russia also changed the structure of its military. The main Russian fighting force in 2022 was made up of Brigade Tactical Groups (BIG). Each of them was part of a garrison brigade which next to the one contract soldier BTG had additional battalions that were mostly training conscripts. Under Russian laws the conscript battalions could not be used on foreign ground.

The fighting BTG's had few real infantry soldiers. Next to their 9 infantry platoons they had 8 artillery and 5 auxiliary platoons. Of a total of some 800 plus soldiers in a BTG only 200 were actually infantry that could man the trenches. The whole structure was too big and too difficult to command.

After the mobilization had brought up enough men the Russian military changed from BTGs to a mobile brigade structure. Under a higher commander the brigade holds two or three battalions that each consist of three or four companies of mobile infantry or tanks. Most of the artillery and auxiliary troops of the former BTGs are now concentrated under the brigade structure and can be used more flexible wherever they are needed. The tooth to tail ratio in the frontline battalions is now much higher than in a BTG and the whole structure is easier to command.

Above the newly structured brigades are now division commands which have additional assets like air defenses, attack helicopters and electronic warfare units. They direct the brigades within a wider front and with a bigger picture in mind.

While a lack of contract infantry necessitated the BTG structure of 2022 the additionally mobilized forces allowed in 2023 to return to the more efficient classic structures of battalions under brigades under divisions. All this was visible through the reports from the Russian military which had stopped to mention BTGs and changed to brigade numbers. For an unbiased military mind it was easy to see that this new Russian force would be a more balanced and better one.

Satellite pictures had shown for months that the Russian troops were building extensive defense structures like trench lines and anti-tank barriers. They are by the way still adding to them.

In the spring of 2023 the Ukrainian army was much weaker than when the war started. The Russian military had grown and was stronger. It also had well prepared positions. 'Western' politicians, the propagandized public and military commands failed to recognize those facts.

NATO had simulated the Ukrainian counter-offensive:

Logic dictates that any responsible use of the KORA simulation system would have predicted the failure of the 47th Brigade’s attack. According to The Washington Post, the officers of the 47th Brigade “planned their assaults and then let the [KORA] program show them the results – how their Russian enemies might respond, where they could make a breakthrough and where they would suffer losses.” The KORA simulation allowed the Ukrainian officers to coordinate their actions “to test how they’d work together on the battlefield.”
Given that the Ukrainian force structure was insufficient to accomplish the mission-critical task of suppression, there was no chance for the Ukrainian forces to accomplish the actual assault requirements of a breaching operation – the destruction of enemy forces on the opposite side of the obstacle barrier being breached. The Ukrainians, however, came away from their KORA experience confident that they had crafted a winning plan capable of overcoming the Russian defenses in and around Orekhov.
When one examines the structure of a KORA-based simulation, it becomes clear that the system is completely dependent upon the various inputs which define the simulation as a whole.


They probably thought the Ukrainians could actually win. But when one uses wrong estimates for the fighting powers of each side as input of a simulation the output will always be garbage.

The real world results are now in. The Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed.

Image

The weekend edition of the German business daily headlines: "This isn't a counter-offensive. It is a bloody crash test."

It is now time to acknowledge that the 'western' military assessments and its expectations were completely wrong:

In its early phases, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is having less success and Russian forces are showing more competence than western assessments expected, two western officials and a senior US military official tell CNN.
The counteroffensive is “not meeting expectations on any front,” one of the officials said.

According to the Western assessments, Russian lines of defense have been proving well-fortified, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to breach them. In addition, Russian forces have had success bogging down Ukrainian armor with missile attacks and mines and have been deploying air power more effectively.

Ukrainian forces are proving “vulnerable” to minefields and Russian forces “competent” in their defense, one of the Western officials said.


Even the neoconservative Institute for the Study of War was forced to eat some tiny bits of crow and to acknowledge the competence of the Russian forces:

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) responded to the Ukrainian attack with an uncharacteristic degree of coherency and praised Southern Military District elements for repelling the attack and regaining lost positions.

Anyone who thinks that coherency is uncharacteristic for the Russians should go back and read up on Operation Bagration which showed what a well prepared Russian military can actually do.

ISW also writes:

Russian forces appear to have executed their formal tactical defensive doctrine in response to the Ukrainian attacks ...

Well, what did the ISW 'experts' expect? That the Russians would use their manuals as toilet paper and run away when the turkey shooting begins?

In their utter stupidity the neoconservatives probably really believed that.

The assessments made did not acknowledge the dubious quality of freshly stood up Ukrainian forces. They did not acknowledge the changes and growth in the military structures on the Russian side. They failed to recognize the quality of the Russian fortifications and military capabilities and the deep roots of their doctrine.

The results are the consequence of ignoring reality, of seeing what one wants to see.

The politics of this war demanded that the 'western' side wins. NATO military was biased towards that. Instead of telling the politicians what a realistic outcome would be it delivered hopeful assessments that defied reality.

In consequence the Ukrainian military suffered many unnecessary casualties and lost the initiative.

Let's hope that at least some folks will learn from this.

Posted by b on June 23, 2023 at 17:16 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/06/t ... .html#more

*******

Chronicle of the special military operation for June 23, 2023
June 24, 2023
Rybar

Ukrainian formations continue to shell the territory of Russia. Kursk region , DPR and Kherson region are under attack .

Fighting continues on the fronts. Fighting is going on in the area of ​​Serebryansky forestry , the Russian Armed Forces are advancing with battles for every meter. In the DPR, positional confrontation in the areas of Marinka and Avdiivka . On the southern sector of the front - fighting on the Vremievsky ledge , north of Rabotino and in the Pyatikhatki area .

Image

Attacks on Kursk and the region

Image
At night in Kursk , air defense worked several times, intercepting Ukrainian UAVs. During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine once again shelled the village of Elizavetovka in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region.

This time, a parking lot of agricultural machinery on the very outskirts of the village came under attack. As a result of the incident, no one was injured.

Later, an attempt was made to attack the Krupets checkpoint with a kamikaze drone .

The UAV was seen literally a hundred meters in front of the object and was destroyed in the air. As a result of the incident, no one was injured.

The situation on the front line and the fighting

Image
On the Starobelsky direction, units of the Russian airborne troops continue to clean up Ukrainian positions in the Serebryansky forestry area . Fights are going on for every meter, as Ukrainian artillerymen and mortarmen are conducting massive fire on the fighters of the RF Armed Forces.

South continues the assault To the south, the assault on the Belogorovsky . Today, Russian servicemen have completely cleared the territory of the Popasnyansky district water utility, improving the tactical situation.

However, the paratroopers of the 81st airmobile brigade of the Airborne Forces of Ukraine, with the support of detachments of mercenaries, are digging in near the Cretaceous Quarry. Opposite the industrial zone, where the RF Armed Forces have entrenched themselves, Ukrainian formations are preparing firing positions on a hill.

The assault on this stronghold is complicated by its location at a height, and without control over it, advancement in Belogorovka is impractical due to possible unjustified losses.

Theoretically, with success in forest plantations to the north and the advance of Russian troops to the Seversky Donets River , the RF Armed Forces will be able to cut off the supply of the Ukrainian group in Belogorovka through Grigorovka , which will complicate the defense of the settlement for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In the area of ​​Torskoy ledge, during the positional offensive, the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered heavy losses over the past few days. According to the interception of negotiations between members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the number of those killed exceeded 200 people and 15 strongholds came under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

At the same time, the forces of the 1st battalion of the 42nd mechanized brigade were deployed to the south in the area of ​​Raygorodok and Yampol to reinforce forward positions, which may be due to the success of the RF Armed Forces in the sector.


In the Donetsk direction, positional battles continue in the area of ​​\u200b\u200bthe Avdeevsky ledge and Maryinka . The agglomeration is under constant shelling.

In the Yuzhnodonetsk direction, the main hostilities are taking place near the Vremevsky ledge . In the forest plantations to the west and south-west of Makarovka, the consolidated Ukrainian assault detachments of the 128th troop detachment and the 35th detachment were concentrated.

Also from Zaporozhye to Bolshaya Novoselka and Storozhevoe with personnel in armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles of various types.

In addition, several cannon and rocket artillery pieces were moved from Bolshaya Novoselka to Vremevka and Storozhevoe . Such a maneuver is typical before preparing for an assault for fire support of advancing forces at a greater distance from the front.

Also, enemy assault detachments arrived at Levadny . The concentration of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area, together with reinforcements in the Orekhovsky sector, indicates an imminent intensification of hostilities.

Fighting will continue in the Orekhovsky sector in the Zaporozhye direction .

Now Ukrainian formations use only infantry to carry out attacks on the positions of the RF Armed Forces with little or no support from armored vehicles.

The Spetsnaz archangel reported that the enemy units were trying to maneuver, avoiding minefields and using the forest belt as cover. Yesterday the Ukrainian Armed Forces , at the cost of more than ten men , were able to occupy an advanced stronghold north of Rabotino . Artillerymen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are firing at them.

At present, the command of the Ukrainian grouping is transferring assault groups to Malaya Tokmachka and Orekhov , simultaneously shelling the strongholds of the RF Armed Forces. And mobile phones and identity cards were confiscated from the formations of the 128th brigade.

Image
Satellite images of the Chongarsky bridge in the Kherson region appeared on the network.

Apparently, the Russian command took seriously the attempts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to cut off the supply of the Zaporizhzhya group from the Crimea: a crossing had already appeared in the area of ​​the bridges damaged by yesterday's strike .

And this is the right decision. As we wrote yesterday , hitting every pontoon with expensive Storm Shadow for the Armed Forces is costly even with all Western supplies. If they periodically change position, then the defeat of cruise missiles will become an even more difficult task.

It is gratifying that the RF Armed Forces promptly responded to the threat. We hope that similar measures have also been taken in other areas actively monitored by NATO satellite reconnaissance. At least that's what I want to believe.

Shelling of rear territories and residential areas

Image
Air defense worked in Lugansk during the day, in the Donetsk agglomeration, Petrovsky , Kievsky , Kirovsky and Kuibyshevsky districts of Donetsk , Makeevka , Gorlovka , Krasny Partizan , Panteleimonovka and Yasinovataya were under enemy fire starting from midnight .


Settlements are shelled mainly with NATO caliber 155 mm. Residential houses and outbuildings were damaged. Gorlovka has a high-voltage power line and water supply.

Image
Ukrainian formations continue shelling the Kherson region of Russia.

At night Novaya Kakhovka and Kakhovka , Podlesnoe and Malaya Lepetikha were shelled . During the day, there were several explosions in Genichesk , in addition, there are reports of the sounds of explosions in Skadovsk .

According to preliminary information, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched strikes with Storm Shadow missiles.

Political events
Israeli authorities comment on arms supplies to Ukraine

Today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried to explain why the country refuses direct arms supplies to Ukraine. According to him, Western weapons handed over to the Kiev regime were eventually found near the borders of Israel .

The authorities believe that if Israeli military equipment is sent to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, sooner or later it will end up with the enemy and will be used against the Israelis. In addition, Netanyahu reiterated the importance of military engagement with Russia in Syria , hinting at an unwillingness to quarrel with the Russian leadership.

By themselves, fears about the smuggling of weapons transferred to Ukrainian formations on the “black market” are not groundless: it is enough to at least recall how Javelin and NLAW anti-tank systems surfaced in various parts of the world - from the Balkans to the states of Latin America .

Against this background, Andrei Medvedev quite rightly points to the possibility of a situation where Hamas or Islamic Jihad will start using Western ATGMs on Israeli armored vehicles, which came to the Arabs thanks to Ukrainian enterprising businessmen.

Israel is well aware that the transfer of weapons to such a state entity as Ukraine will lead to its appearance on black markets all over the planet.

Knowing full well about this, the Israelis, at the very beginning of the NMD, refused in advance of the free pumping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons. Which promised them absolutely nothing but an unnecessary conflict with Russia.

On nuclear blackmail and intimidation of the Ukrainian population

Ukrainian authorities continue to tell stories about a Russian-planned attack on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. Under this sauce, Zelensky and his associates are trying to force the international community to tighten sanctions against the Russian Federation.

At the same time, the IAEA did not confirm the Ukrainian intelligence information that the ZNPP cooling pond was allegedly mined at the plant. However, the authorities in Kyiv continue to escalate the situation and are preparing to conduct exercises in case of a possible disaster at the facility.

More about the nuclear threat

After the recent statements by the People's Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Oleksiy Goncharenko about the need to obtain either Western or domestic nuclear weapons, the baton was picked up by a former adviser to the Office of the President Arestovich.

According to him, Ukraine would be able to develop nuclear weapons quickly enough if it were hit by nuclear weapons.

Against this background, one of the most critical Republican US senators against Russia, Lindy Graham, threatened the Russian Federation with a nuclear war if its nuclear potential was used.

About the new, 11th EU sanctions list

In addition to the governors of some regions, military officers Pegov, Poddubny, Sladkov and several other journalists, the founder and leader of our project, Mikhail Zvinchuk, was included in the EU sanctions list.

In addition, several enterprises, the International Settlement Center and the manufacturer of aircraft missiles "Dux" were included in the list.

Author: Rybar

https://rybar.ru/hronika-speczialnoj-vo ... 2023-goda/

(Other Images at Link.)

****************

Friday evening....
June 23, 22:13

Image

For those who planned to relax this Friday evening.

1. Prigozhin said that the rear camps of PMC "Wagner" were fired upon by the RF Armed Forces and that he was going to deal with Shoigu by force, since there were dead people there.
2. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported that all this was an informational provocation, no one bombed the camps and the military perform their tasks in the NVO zone as usual.
3. Earlier, videos appeared on the network with fighters and commanders from various sectors of the front, who denied the loss of positions on the Vremievsky ledge and in the Rabotino area.
4. The public conflict between the leadership of PMC "Wagner" and the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry continues to escalate. In conditions of war, the situation looks more and more intolerable. The open conflict that has been smoldering since last autumn must be stopped.

We continue to watch.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8443556.html

PS _ A criminal case has been officially opened against Prigozhin for incitement to rebellion.
As to whether this is a little drama for the Ukes remains to be seen.

Chinese gunpowder
June 23, 20:33

Image

Chinese gunpowder

The United States accused one of the Chinese companies of supplying large batches of gunpowder to Russia (for some time now, as a result of "optimization", the number of gunpowder factories in the country has become insufficient), which was allegedly supplied to one of the defense enterprises of our military-industrial complex in Barnaul (Barnaul Cartridge Plant). According to the Americans, the supplied gunpowder was enough to produce 80,000,000 rounds of ammunition.
Shipment took place through Iranian comrades.

What I would like to note about these accusations.

1. This is only 1 company. To understand the possibilities of China.
2. The fact that Iran is actively supplying military products to the Russian Federation is not a secret.
3. The fact that China uses a third country for supplies is also not a big secret.
4. At the official level, no one will recognize anything and the Americans will be sent to the forest, especially since the Chinese supplier is already under sanctions, and money transactions are clearly not in US dollars - thanks to dedollarization.
5. And in general, who cares who China supplies gunpowder to. 😀 In any case, thanks to the Chinese comrades for their help and assistance.

PS. It is necessary to build at least 2-3 new gunpowder factories in the country.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/89978

Google Translator

PS. It is necessary to build at least 2-3 new gunpowder factories in the country.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8443315.html

*********

From the Telegram account of Slavyangrad:

Slavyangrad
“Never pause unless you have a reason for it, but when you pause, pause as long as you can.”

― W. Somerset Maugham, Theatre

Regarding PMC Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defence

PART I | PART II

(GB's personal opinion, not of @Slavyangrad as a whole—others may or may not share it, and I take full responsibility if it is misguided.)

The former is a private military contractor corporation; the latter—an integral part of the massive Russian state. A machine so enormous by comparison that even the ratio of the Titanic to its icy nemesis (1/20 is the rough estimate) is orders of magnitude greater than the ratio of the PMC to the MoD. Perhaps Jonah and the whale(1)(1/1600) is a more apt comparison.

So, what does this all mean? It means that, if Prigozhin’s statements are not a psyop intended to give the Ukrainians hope of an exploitable crisis—which I believe they are—the MoD can afford to and has a reason to pause. It will pause for as long as it takes Prigozhin to surrender his troops to their rightful command. If he does not—they will take them anyways. The order has gone out: Everyone, volunteer or PMC, must sign a contract with the Russian military. Most already have.

Recall, the MoD had already taken the jail recruitment away, and Prigozhin could do nothing. And the MoD-constituted Storm Z assault battalions are performing exceptionally—trained according to new methods and operating under a proper military command structure, they are dispersed throughout the theatre of the conflict, disseminating their new tactics to the rest of the Russian troops. Not segregated from the rest, but incorporated into a joint effort.

When Prigozhin came recently to dictate his will to the MoD, with a contract so insulting(2) (demanding, inter alia, access to everything except the nuclear forces, full financing in exchange for a 6% share of the profit from the PMC, and veto right on any decisions involving Wagner’s deployment, all for a period of 20 years) that it would have required some—any—response, the MoD simply did not let him through the door. They kept the pause going. They appear to be in no rush. PMC Wagner is not at the moment a factor on the battlefield, and nothing that the Russian military is currently doing relies on Prigozhin’s organization—there are other heroes on the frontlines. “The greater the artist, the longer the pause.” (a quotation from the Soviet film adaptation of Somerset Maugham’s novel)

...continued below...

(1) What did the whale do to Jonah? Right, it was sent to save him.
(2) Some excerpts from the contract:

- Employees of PMC Wagner do not enter into a contract with the MoD, are not military personnel, and act in accordance with the regulations and standards established by PMC Wagner. At the same time, the employees of PMC Wagner are entitled to all the benefits provided for the military personnel of the Russian Federation.

- PMC Wagner in the execution of their assigned tasks shall have the right to use all the infrastructure of the Defense Ministry, including civilian facilities transferred [to the Defence Ministry], with the exception of the infrastructure of the Strategic Missile Forces.

- When conducting joint operations with the MoD, PMC Wagner commanders will participate in the formulation and discussion of the operation plan, including the right to veto (block decision) and the decisive vote in resolving the combat tasks involving the participation of the Wagner PMC.


Slavyangrad
Regarding PMC Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defence

PART I | PART II

(GB's personal opinion, not of @Slavyangrad as a whole—others may or may not share it, and I take full responsibility if it is misguided.)

It is difficult to imagine the MoD’s refusal to entertain Prigozhin’s antics in the absence of authorization from the very top. The order for all the volunteers and PMC fighters to sign contracts with the MoD is evidence of this directive. Prigozhin will submit because, ultimately, his men fight for Russia, not for him. He will submit because otherwise he will be eaten whole regardless. A hostile takeover that he, as a businessman, knows he has no poison pill to thwart. He will make noise, though, to carve out as many preferences and concessions in retirement as possible, but Prigozhin’s is increasingly the “voice of one calling in the wilderness,” not because he “prepares the way,” but rather because no one listens.

All that said, this is the least likely version of what is happening. Just as with the myth of the “artificial shell shortage” (if anything, the Russian Army was saving up the ammo to crush the inevitable Ukrainian offensive), which paved the way for the “Fortress Bakhmut” massacre and the Ukrainian counteroink that began sooner than it should have, it is a lot more likely that we have front-row seats to a masterful piece of theatre. They have everyone, from Strelkov to the Ukrainians and the NATO command watching with bated breath.

If so, using this public spectacle bordering on mutiny as a means of psychological warfare and deception speaks directly to the strength of the Russian state—Russia can afford this performance without worrying about internal discord. She can afford to keep the illusion going until PMC Wagner, refreshed and renewed, strikes at the chosen target, with full support and as part of the MoD machine.

https://t.me/s/Slavyangrad

********

Ukraine’s Accusations Against Moscow about ZNPP – Preparation for False Flag?
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JUNE 23, 2023
Lucas Leiroz

Image

As well known, the Kiev regime has been carrying out irresponsible attacks against the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) since last year. Russian officials, independent journalists and ordinary citizens have repeatedly reported the Ukrainian strikes, with strong suspicions that the regime deliberately wants to provoke a nuclear leakage in the region. However, Kiev now seriously accuses Russia of planning such a crime, which sounds like a coordinated operation to delude public opinion.

On his social media, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky claimed to have received an intelligence report exposing that Moscow is planning a “terrorist attack” on the ZNPP. The objective would be to destroy the plant and cause a radioactive leak, thus affecting the lives of thousands of civilians. On the occasion, the Ukrainian president also resumed the unfounded accusations that Russia was responsible for the incident at the Novaya Kakhovka dam, in addition to saying that the whole world is being warned in advance about what will possibly happen in ZNPP. He called on Kiev’s international partners to “act” in order to prevent such a tragedy.

“We have just had a report from our intelligence and the Security Service of Ukraine. Intelligence has received information that Russia is considering a scenario of a terrorist attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. A terrorist attack with radiation leakage. They have prepared everything for this. Unfortunately, I have repeatedly had to remind that radiation has no state borders, and who it will hit is determined only by the wind direction. (…) There should never be any terrorist attacks on nuclear power plants anywhere. This time it should not be like with Kakhovka – the world has been warned, so the world can and must act”, he said.

In the same vein, the president’s aide Mikhail Podoliak reiterated the accusations about an alleged “terrorist offensive” and added that mines were being placed around the ZNPP aimed at increasing the chances of radioactive leakage. For Podoliak, in fact, the alleged Russian terrorist plan is already “currently underway” and its objective would be to stop the Ukrainian armed forces’ counteroffensive by creating a “depopulated zone” in the areas affected by radiation.

“Russia (…) is currently considering a large-scale terrorist attack at the ZNPP to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive and create a depopulated sanitary gray zone, fixed for the next years, as part of the territorial status quo without ceasefire. This strategy also includes attempts to attack the dam in Kryvyi Rih with Kinzhals. Additional mining of the nuclear power plant, including the cooling ponds, is currently underway. Whether the Kremlin decides to go ahead with this scenario today depends solely on the reaction of the global world. The red lines have to be defined. The consequences must be announced. Not tomorrow. Today”, he stated.

However, contradicting the words of the Ukrainian official, Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), clarified that the organization continues to closely monitor the ZNPP, making it clear that there is no problem with mines in the region.

“The IAEA is aware of reports of mines having been placed near the cooling pond. No mines were observed at the site during the Director General’s visit, including the cooling pond (…) Our assessment of those particular placements was that while the presence of any explosive device is not in line with safety standards, the main safety functions of the facility would not be significantly affected”, Grossi said.

Indeed, Ukrainian accusations against Russia are not new. Since 2022, both sides have mutually accused each other of carrying out attacks against ZNPP. The main point is that Moscow presents concrete evidence when making such claims, while Kiev accuses Russia in an unsubstantiated way. It was the Russian side that repeatedly invited international observers to investigate the ZNPP’s situation on the ground, clearly showing that Moscow has nothing to hide about what happens there.

The same can be said about the attack on the Kakhovka dam, which several analysts say is Ukraine’s fault. The act was consistent with the interests of the regime both in blocking the water supply to Crimea and in destabilizing the functioning of the ZNPP itself, as it risked the cooling of the reactors, increasing the chances of leakage. It is important to remember that months before the operation Ukrainian officials had already admitted their intention to bomb the dam.

Considering these factors, the most plausible explanation for the recent Ukrainian accusation seems to be an attempt to advance the matter in public opinion. Kiev may be planning even riskier raids against the ZNPP, which is why, in advance to any accident, it tries to spread the narrative that it is the Russian side that wants to cause the catastrophe. In this case, the intent would be to prepare western media’s audience for an anti-Russian false flag.

If Ukraine succeeds in its ambition, Moscow could be accused of several crimes, justifying escalations by the western side. Mainstream media and Ukrainian state propaganda would use rhetorical means to move public opinion to support violent measures against Moscow. Kiev is hopeful that this will prompt a direct intervention by the alliance in the war, although this scenario is unlikely as the bloc seems interested in keeping the conflict at proxy level.

On the Russian side, however, the situation continues to be monitored. Moscow has avoided responding appropriately to provocations in order not to escalate violence, but if increasing the intensity of attacks against the Kiev regime is the only way to prevent a nuclear accident from occurring in the ZNPP, certainly Russian forces will accelerate their maneuvers towards the neutralization of the enemy.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/06/ ... alse-flag/

Why the US Plan for Localized Russia-Ukraine Nuclear War is Doomed to Fail
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JUNE 23, 2023
Drago Bosnic

Image

Back in early December last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia could adopt a US-style preemptive strike doctrine, stating that “[Russia] is just thinking about it” and that “[the political West] wasn’t shy to openly talk about it during the past years”. At the time, it seemed that Moscow was simply sending a clear message to the belligerent US-led power pole that was escalating its already extremely hostile policies aimed against Russia. However, things are now much clearer as to why President Putin actually mentioned the possibility of adopting such an unusually offensive concept for the largely defense-oriented Russian military doctrine.

Russia officially adopted most of the policy changes Putin touched upon back then and implemented them in its revised strategic posturing towards the United States and its NATO vassals and satellite states. The mainstream propaganda machine went into a frenzy over the announcement, insisting that Moscow supposedly “lowered the threshold for nuclear war” and that it was allegedly “seeking to start a thermonuclear confrontation” with the political West. This was followed by top US officials’ cheap moralizing about their supposed “desire to avoid escalation with Moscow”, while still insisting on arming the Kiev regime with ever longer-ranged and more advanced weapons.

More recently, the political West has been pushing for the delivery of nuclear-capable F-16 fighter jets to the Neo-Nazi junta, specifically under the guise of ensuring the supposed “edge” these would give over Russian fighters. However, the idea that the state-of-the-art Su-35S or the superfast, high-flying MiG-31BM, both of which are heavyweight combat aircraft, could be seriously jeopardized by a lightweight fighter jet such as the F-16 is simply laughable. The US-made “Fighting Falcon” is just not designed to counter such threats, especially not the variant the Kiev regime is supposed to get. However, this begs the obvious question – why is the US insisting on sending something that’s extremely unlikely to affect the balance of power?

The key lies in the term “nuclear-capable”. While the F-16s destined for the Neo-Nazi junta can’t do much against advanced fighter jets and/or Russia’s second-to-none air defenses, they can still drop bombs, specifically nuclear ones. Many may think that, in doing so, the political West probably believes it will be able to deter and/or contain Moscow. However, it’s becoming increasingly clear that’s not the actual goal. But what very likely might be is the aim of instigating a localized (and contained) nuclear conflict between Russia and the Kiev regime. Obviously, the endgame is to eliminate Moscow as a threat without resorting to a world-ending thermonuclear confrontation with it, one that no country on the planet could hope to survive.

The desperate, ever-compliant (and also suicidal, it would seem) Neo-Nazi junta serves as a perfect scapegoat for such a move. Its top officials are unquestionably obedient and servile towards their puppet masters, while the junta’s enforcers and henchmen are deeply loyal, radicalized and determined to fight the “evil Moskaliv” regardless of the consequences for even their own country, let alone Russia or the world. With that in mind, such people would even be grateful for getting nuclear weapons, truly believing these would help them win against a country that actually has the largest stockpile of such weapons on the planet, as well as the means of their express delivery to literally any point on the world map.

In addition to nuclear-capable F-16s, the Kiev regime now also has long-range weapons such as the “Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG” cruise missiles that could potentially be armed with so-called “dirty bomb” warheads, providing the Neo-Nazi junta with an extremely dangerous weapon it wouldn’t hesitate using against Moscow. The political West believes this would be followed by Russia’s swift retribution, as the Eurasian giant would be forced to respond accordingly, resulting in a certain degradation of its thermonuclear potential, which would be strategically convenient for NATO/US. Whatever would be left of Moscow’s degraded arsenal would be a lesser threat to the political West, making the strategic balance more favorable to the belligerent power pole.

For over a year, Washington DC has been parroting accusations that Russia is supposedly planning to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. This would be a perfect excuse to deliver a nuclear device to the Kiev regime. However, despite the ludicrous claims that Moscow is losing on the battlefield, this couldn’t possibly be further from true, so it simply has no reason to use nuclear weapons. But if recent reports that the US is planning a nuclear false flag in Ukraine are correct, this too could be used as an excuse to deliver nuclear weapons to the Neo-Nazi junta or at the very least provide sensitive nuclear technologies that would enable them to make such a device. The latter scenario would probably be even more convenient for the political West.

In the aftermath of a potential nuclear exchange between Russia and the nuclear-armed Kiev regime, the US could even contemplate launching a decapitation strike that would kill the Russian leadership. And before dismissing such a possibility, we should consider the number of threats to President Putin coming from current and former top US officials. Washington DC has already tried to undermine Moscow’s strategic deterrence capabilities and has also shown cold willingness to sacrifice its vassals and satellite states by giving them a greater strategic role than they could possibly handle. America’s fear of even a single Russian weapon, let alone an entire modernized military force, is pushing it to such belligerence.

However, for its part, Moscow has clearly demonstrated that it will not allow for a scenario of localized nuclear war to take place. Russia is perfectly aware of what the US is trying to achieve in Ukraine and has repeatedly warned the belligerent thalassocracy against such moves, both through private and public channels.

The previously mentioned Putin’s statements about the adoption of US-style preemptive strike doctrine is both a message to Washington DC that Russia knows exactly what the political West is planning, as well as a stark warning that it too can do something similar. In addition, the Russian military leadership has also relayed their determination not to allow any sort of localized nuclear war and has warned that in such a scenario, the Eurasian giant would obliterate the Neo-Nazi junta’s decision-making centers – those outside of Ukraine.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/06/ ... d-to-fail/

******

From the Telegram account of Slavyangrad;

Slavyangrad
🤜🤘👍

The full text of Vladimir Putin's address to the citizens of Russia:

I appeal to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement agencies and special services, to the soldiers and commanders who are now fighting at their battle positions, repelling the enemy's attacks and doing so heroically—I know, I spoke again tonight with the commanders of all directions. I am also addressing those who have been lured into this criminal enterprise and pushed onto the path of the gravest crime—armed mutiny—through deceit or threats.

Russia today is fighting an uphill battle for its future, repelling the aggression of the neo-Nazis and their masters. Virtually the entire military, economic and information machine of the West is directed against us. We are fighting for the lives and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence. For the right to be and remain Russia—a state with a thousand-year history.

This battle, when the fate of our people is being decided, requires the unity of all forces, unity, consolidation, and responsibility. When everything that weakens us, any kind of discord, which our external enemies can and do use to undermine us from inside, must be put aside.

And so the actions that split our unity are, in essence, an apostasy from our people, from our comrades-in-arms who are now fighting on the frontlines. It is a stab in the back of our country and our people.

This is exactly the blow that was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country fought the First World War. But the victory was stolen from her. Intrigues, squabbles, politicking behind the backs of the army and the people resulted in the greatest shock, the destruction of the army and the disintegration of the state, the loss of vast territories. The result was the tragedy of the civil war.

The Russians killed the Russians, the brothers killed their brothers, and the lucrative interests were reaped by all kinds of political adventurers and foreign forces who divided the country and tore it apart.

We will not allow this to happen again. We will protect both our people and our statehood against all threats. Including internal treachery.

And what we have faced is precisely betrayal. Excessive ambitions and vested interests have led to treason. Betrayal of their country, their people, and the cause for which the fighters and commanders of Wagner fought and died alongside our other units. The heroes who liberated Soledar and Artemovsk, towns and villages of Donbass, fought and gave their lives for Novorossiya, for the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory have also been betrayed by those who are trying to organise rebellion, pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide. To defeat, ultimately, and capitulation.

I repeat, any internal turmoil is a mortal threat to our statehood, to us as a nation. It is a blow to Russia, to our people. And our actions to defend the Fatherland against such a threat will be tough. Everyone who deliberately chose the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed insurrection, who chose the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer an inevitable punishment, they will be held accountable both before the law and before our people.

The Armed Forces and other government agencies have received the necessary orders, and additional anti-terrorist measures are being introduced in Moscow, the Moscow region, and a number of other regions. Decisive action will also be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains complex, with the work of the civilian and military authorities effectively blocked.

As the President of Russia and Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do my utmost to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order, the lives, security, and freedom of its citizens.

Those who organized and prepared the military uprising, who raised arms against their comrades-in-arms, have betrayed Russia. And they will be held accountable for it. And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make the fatal and tragic, an irreversible mistake, and to make the only right choice - to stop participating in criminal actions.

I believe that we will preserve and defend what is dear and sacred to us, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any trials, we will become even stronger.

***

Slavyangrad
By popular request of Kadyrov's personal fans, I will post his statement. Here it is:

Friends, it's been a busy night and the flights [I've been on] have not given me time to voice my position on this vile BETRAYAL!

Everything that is happening is a KNIFE IN THE BACK and a real military rebellion!

I have repeatedly warned that war is not the time to voice personal grievances and resolve disputes in our rear. The home front must always be calm and secure. Imagine how the guys in the trenches feel now, with the enemy in their face, while behind them a traitorous enterprise [is playing out]. [We must think] about stability, about state cohesion, about the security of citizens.

History shows that such actions can lead to bloody consequences. Have we not enough losses in the SMO? Do we still have to create problems within the country?

We have a Supreme Commander-in-Chief, elected by the people, who knows the whole situation in minute detail better than any strategist, much less a businessman, calls up the commanders on the ground himself and has full control over the course of SMO. And the Commander-in-Chief's decisions are taken in a measured, meticulous manner. Each of us sees only one part of the map, but he sees it all as a whole! And it is absolutely right that Vladimir Vladimirovich noted in his address to the nation—this is a military mutiny! There is no justification for such actions!
I fully support every word of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin!

I appeal to our fighters—patriots of our Motherland. Do not fall for provocations. Whatever goals they may be trying to achieve, whatever promises they may be making to you—state security and the cohesion of the Russian society at a time like this are above all! Look at how our enemies in the West are taking advantage of this situation. Look at how many innuendos, how many lies, how many false appeals that frighten our citizens and create the danger of a destabilizing situation there are. And these are the expected consequences of Prigozhin's treasonous march.

What is happening is not an ultimatum to the Ministry of Defence. It is a challenge to the state, and against this challenge it is necessary [that all of us] rally around our national leader: The military, the security forces, the governors, the civilian population.

Soldiers of the Ministry of Defence and the Rosgvardia of the Chechen Republic are already on their way to the zones of tension. We will do everything in our power to preserve the unity of Russia and to protect her statehood!

The insurgency must be put down, and if tough measures have to be taken to do so, we are ready!

https://t.me/s/Slavyangrad

I never did trust the bastard.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

Post Reply