Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV
Posted: Tue May 10, 2022 11:06 pm
The path from sanctions to military escalator - paved by misconceptions
Alastair CrookeAlastair Crooke
Source: Al Mayadeen English
8 May 16:23
What lies behind this mess? Well, on the one hand, hubris; but also, the failure to do real homework - and a lack of strategic forethought.
It seems that the war in Ukraine is morphing -- both widening, with a Moldovia-Transnistra and a Polish front opening -- and deepening, with the US preparing for a long-war of Idlib-type attrition designed to weaken and emasculate Russia.
‘New fronts’ are the classical ploys to disperse the opponent’s sharp military focus, by forcing the attention onto fragmented bush-fires lit around the perimeter, which demand action - and perhaps the deployment of troops.
The Polish initiative (co-ordinated directly with the US), is both more grave and sinister. Ostensibly, the objective - as described by the head of Russian External Intelligence (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin - would be to establish military and political control by Warsaw over “its historic territories” which today fall within the boundaries of Ukraine.
Poland would introduce its troops into the Western regions of the country under cover of a mission to “protect the territory from Russian aggression”. Eventually, this would be expected to lead to a partition of Ukraine. The Poles would install a friendly government in the territory they control.
Sinister? Well, very possibly yes. Recall the Idlib model. Turkey (with CIA coordination), invaded the Idlib Province of Syria (also claiming its ‘historic territories’), ostensibly to protect ‘opposition forces’ (i.e. CIA and Turkish-linked jihadists) from the ‘evil Assad regime’.
Idlib then became a semi-autonomous safe haven, under the watchful eyes of Turkish ‘observation’ posts mounted throughout Idlib. The jihadists were ‘normalised’ as a political opposition fighting for democracy, whilst being trained and armed by external Special Operations forces to attempt the overthrow of President Assad.
Is this the American blueprint for the next phase of a ‘long war [against Russia], maybe lasting years’?
Very possibly.
In any event, the EU and the US are likely to agree on a $33 billion budget for Ukraine for the next five months - i.e. through to the US Congressional, mid-term elections! (a timeline that says it all) - that is intended to push massive quantities of increasingly heavy weapons and oodles of cash into Ukraine -- if Russia lets them (which they might not, preferring to destroy the weapons on arrival).
Arguably, the West’s war on Russia has evolved from a failed Financial War - that did not bring about the early collapse of the rouble, nor the Russian financial system – into the all-too-familiar world of mounting, financing and arming an attrition-insurgency.
Or has it? Perhaps it remains true that the financial/sanctions/economic struggle still stands primordial. That does not at all, of course, imply that military outcomes are insignificant. They are not. But rather, it is because the West has misread, and misconceived the Russian conduct of its military operation so badly (through trying to read it through the lens of a blinkered NATO mirroring their own way of war), that a gross underestimate of the risk of catastrophic EU loss in the economic battlespace is possible.
If the risks from sanctions war remain potentially so devastating, why are they being ignored by EU leaders?
This underestimation of the risks facing Europe, principally results from an atmosphere in Washington and Brussels of high euphoria about the course of the military conflict, plus the thrill of inflicting a humiliating civilizational defeat on Putin.
This combination has given rise to a rosy assessment of the battlespace ‘balance of economic strengths’ betwixt the EU and Russia.
Here is the essence: Initially, the EU expected the Russian rouble quickly to collapse due to the EU and US seizing Russian foreign reserves, and the sanctioning of Russia’s Central Bank. And this currency crash, it was assumed, would tip the dominoes to fall in a cascade crash of Russia’s financial institutions.
But this didn’t happen. The EU had calculated solely on the premise of its experience of the 1998 Russian financial crisis, and of the US attempt to crash the rouble in 2014. The short answer as to why their plan failed is that in the interim, Russia had addressed the financial system’s vulnerability to currency attack.
Today, the Russian financial system is stable; its currency has more than recouped initial falls; and its balance of trade has ballooned as a result of today’s higher oil and commodity prices.
Paradoxically the Russian financial situation is stronger than that of many European economies.
Of, course, Russia is experiencing pain. The head of the Central Bank on Friday said that Russia might experience a drop of 8-10% of GDP this year as a result of supply line disruptions, as western states pulled their firms out from Russia. And inflation is high. She gave a figure of 10–12% for real inflation (about on a par with that of Europe). But she also cut interest rates – for the second time in order to stimulate domestic investment.
Far from a picture of imminent economic collapse, she painted one of short-term manageable pain that would largely be righted by 2024 -- in spite of continuing uncertainties.
After the EU scratched heads as to why their initial crash-the-economy plan had failed, the light bulb lit up: Ah! Russia was accumulating so much foreign exchange from selling oil and gas at high prices, that the exchange inflows were bidding up the rouble. Solution: the EU must cease buying Russian oil and gas. It must deprive Moscow of foreign exchange. Then the rouble will be forced into its overdue 'dive'.
Wrong again: In fact, most of the foreign exchange inflows are ‘sterilised’ in Central Bank accounts, precisely so they do not drive up the value of the rouble any further. At the same event when the Central Bank head, Elvira Nabiullina, gave her economic report, Nikolai Patrushev, head of Russia's National Security Council, explained exactly why the rouble did not collapse, and the means by which it had been “sovereigntised’’.
But of course, von der Leyen has banned all news (and such explanations) from Russia being posted in the EU – and, under her bidding, the EU is moving ever closer to banning oil purchases from Russia. The EU is back on the sanctions ‘escalator’ - and they seem content to be there.
Experts have warned plainly that banning Russian ‘everything’ portends ‘curtains’ for Europe: spiking inflation; likely energy-rationing; de-industrialisation, recession – and social unrest.
Why won’t the EU change course?
Well, apart from the euphoria derived from pursuing a major ideological world-change, it is because the EU leaders have the military reality back-to-front.
Western leaders claim that Russia’s military timetable, its strategy, and its aim to ‘subsume Ukraine into Russia’, are a shambles. If you believe that, then taking the economic risk to ‘save Ukraine’ and the liberal ‘order’ may be judged valid.
Were you believe also that Russia’s dysfunctional army could ‘lose the war’ in the coming two weeks, or even within a couple of months at most, then EU leaders might judge soaring energy prices – and even inflation – to be merely a transitory phenomenon. And that by the end of summer, normality in prices would return.
Well, the premise on which this fantastical western assessment is based rests on a complete misreading over how a smaller Russian force could use a 'strategy of maneuver and feint' to shape a battlefield on which larger Ukrainian forces are manipulated into immobilized, fixed, defensive positions - and cut off from support, reinforcement and re-supply.
The Clausewitzian doctrine is that victory is achieved by grinding your opponent’s army into dust (and by by-passing urban areas, where possible). Russian forces are grinding down the fixed, encircled positions of the main Ukrainian army in Donbas, exactly now. Will this be victory? No. Ukraine seems destined for ultimate dismemberment (with certain European states seeking a pound of its erstwhile flesh). It will be a moment fraught with the risk of escalation. It will - with hindsight - likely be viewed as but one chapter in a long war.
What lies behind this mess? Well, on the one hand, hubris; but also, the failure to do real homework - and a lack of strategic forethought. Many misconceptions were driven by info-war pressures. Absurd info-war claims, however untrue, could not be countered because ..."We are in an info-war with Russia, aren't we?" To present an alternative view is to 'aid the Russian 'enemy' with its disinformation'. Where were those experts who actually understand Russia? Excluded: All the misjudgments seem to have been driven by staffers with pure animus: Committed activists, led by a supreme Commander who is personally and emotionally invested in the struggle, too.
https://english.almayadeen.net/articles ... ved-by-mis
*********************************
NATO biological programs in Kazakhstan
May 10, 21:36
While there is a lot of talk about the revealed programs for the development of biological weapons on the territory of Ukraine, about the same thing is happening with much less noise on the territory of formally allied Kazakhstan.
The biological programs of the Atlantic community in Kazakhstan are no less a threat than the development of bioweapons in Ukraine
The facts discovered in the course of the SVO, testifying to the development of biological weapons by the US intelligence services on the basis of an extensive network of military biological laboratories in Ukraine, caused a wide political and public outcry at the international level. The aggressive expansion of the "scientific" infrastructure of the military departments of NATO member countries in the CIS emphasizes the importance of taking measures to counter new biological threats, primarily in the border regions of Russia.
Kazakhstan (the common land state border with Russia is about 6,000 km), which has a significant scientific and industrial potential, is certainly considered by NATO members as an effective outpost in the confrontation with Russia. In an article by MRI Global (NGO, coordination of research centers of the US Department of Defense) Kenneth Yeh, it is explicitly stated: “Kazakhstan’s attractiveness as a partner is due to its history of participation in the biological weapons program in the former Soviet Union, the current plague surveillance system and experience in combating with outbreaks of infectious diseases, including anthrax, brucellosis, plague and tularemia.
Currently, there are three major military biological programs implemented by NATO members on the territory of Kazakhstan:
- The US Department of Defense Biological Threat Reduction Program (BTRP) of the United States Defense Threat Reduction Agency, DTRA) is a long-term US project deployed on the territory of the former Soviet republics: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan;
- Germany's Federal Foreign Office's German Biosecurity Program (GBP) - targeted projects in Georgia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine;
- The United Kingdom's International Biological Security Program (IBSP) is a British project in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, as well as in the countries of the Middle East and Africa.
All three programs are intensively financed in the direction of the development of special infrastructure, the conduct of scientific research "dual" purpose and training.
BTRP has been operating in Kazakhstan since the early 2000s. During the implementation of this program, the Central Reference Laboratory was established in Almaty in 2017, for which $ 102 million was allocated. The specified research center has the most modern laboratories with high levels of biological safety: BSL-3, ABSL-3 and BSL-2, in which work can be carried out with pathogens of dangerous infections of I-II pathogenicity groups, as well as relevant experimental work on bioassay animals. From 2005 to 2018 Within the framework of BTRP, 30 biological projects were implemented in Kazakhstan, for which $ 25 million was spent.
It is important to note that the planning and coordination of the implementation of the BTRP and IBSP programs was carried out under agreements between the US Department of Defense and the UK Department of Defense. In particular, the US and British military jointly developed the KZ-4 project (2005-2007), aimed at studying endemic viral pathogens. Then the larger project KZ-29 (2009-2014), the purpose of which was a comprehensive study of tick-borne infections, including Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, orthohantaviruses, tick-borne encephalitis, rickettsiosis, and the one-year project TAP-10, during which additional causative agents of brucellosis and coxiellosis were studied. In 2020, DTRA specialists provided the Kazakh side with a three-year grant in the amount of $ 1.5 million,
From 2013 to 2021, the German GBP program implemented three biological projects in Kazakhstan with a total value of € 2.5 million. Military specialists from the Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology (Institut für Mikrobiologie der Bundeswehr) and the German Society for International Cooperation (Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit). The first stage of work was the project "German-Kazakhstan information system for diagnosing infectious diseases caused by potential B-agents" (2013-2016). Relevant work was continued in the project "German-Kazakhstan information system for biosafety and biosecurity" (2017-2019 and 2020-2022). The program involved 5 leading specialized institutions of Kazakhstan: Kazakh National Medical University named after S.D. Asfendiyarov,
There is no doubt that military microbiologists from the USA, Great Britain and Germany received unlimited access to comprehensive information about the epidemiological situation, strains from national collections of pathogenic microorganisms and relevant clinical material.
Obviously, all the presented military biological programs are aimed at obtaining detailed information about the pathogens of especially dangerous natural focal infections circulating in the territory of the post-Soviet countries, including Kazakhstan. Genetic modification of strains of these pathogens can lead to the development of effective biological weapons, the action of which mimics the outbreak of a disease of natural origin.
In addition, concerns are raised by reports of studies of the features of the genome of the indigenous population of Kazakhstan, conducted with the active participation of scientists from Columbia University. Targeted collection and analysis of genomic profiles of representatives of nationalities inhabiting the territories adjacent to the borders of the Russian Federation can obviously be used to develop targeted/selective weapons of destruction, as well as to predict the consequences of exposure to pathogenic agents.
Important information about the complex of scientific projects of NATO countries on the territory of Kazakhstan with brief annotations is available on the website of the International Science and Technology Center (ISTC). The chairman of the organization is the director of the Center for Global Security Studies at the Livermore National Laboratory. Lawrence, former Director of the US Agency for Arms Control and Disarmament, Assistant Secretary of Defense, Chief START Negotiator and Deputy Assistant to the President Dr. Ronald Lehman.
Thus, the available objective data allow us to conclude that the activities of the United States and its allies in creating, financing and controlling the operation of an extensive network of military biological laboratories in Kazakhstan are accompanied by an unprecedented increase in biosecurity risks for the population of Central Asia and neighboring countries. These circumstances require the development, together with all interested countries of the Eurasian space, including China and Russia, of a comprehensive action plan to counter new biological threats, including improving the system for detecting and identifying atypical pathogenic biological agents and organizing mutual control of studies in the field of biosafety that have the potential military application.
https://telegra.ph/Biologicheskie-progr ... aine-05-10 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7608101.html
flower wall
May 10, 17:34
Despite the prohibitions and threats, the inhabitants of Tallinn gathered a whole wall of flowers from the Bronze Soldier.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7607542.html
Google Translator
*******************************************
From Cassad's Telegram Account:
***
forwarded from
Readovka
The map of hostilities and the situation on the fronts on the evening of May 10
News from the fronts has not been brought much today, so today we will start from afar, namely from across the ocean. The Pentagon reported on the work done on arming and training Ukrainian units: out of 90 M777 howitzers promised to Ukraine, 89 were handed over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and 120,000 155-mm artillery ammunition was also sent. The training program for handling these systems was completed by 370 military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - and even a training video is attached .
The head of the intelligence agency of the US Department of Defense said that the Ukrainian conflict has reached a dead end. And White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that the United States believes that the situation in Ukraine will be resolved through diplomacy. A lot has been said todaybut little has been done.
And even Lukashenka decided to hold another urgent exercise, and also said that in response to the creation of a 20,000-strong group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the border of Ukraine with Belarus , Minsk would deploy special forces on the border . (And maybe even showed where the attack is being prepared, but we overlooked).
Apparently, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine also had trouble with news from the fronts today . Therefore, I had to give out a photo of 2014 of my own wrecked tank as “victories on the seas”.
On the fronts, in fact, a continuation of yesterday's picture :
In the Kharkiv direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue their bravado, they captured the settlements of Cherkasy Tishki, Russian Tishki, Rubizhnoye and Bayrak. A full-scale offensive is being prepared for Kazachya Lopan and Tsupovka . The RF Armed Forces continue to hold the line in Liptsy . The Ukrainian command is preparing an operation to cross the Seversky Donets near Chepel and cut off the supply lines of the Izyum grouping. The main goal of this undertaking is to divert our forces from the Izyum sector of the offensive.
The Izyum Front continues to break down the fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukrainians get seriously on the Liman direction. To the east, fighting is going on "at the edge" of the Kramatorsk reserve, ours are trying to establish a crossing across the Seversky Donets.
The people's militia of the LPR , with the support of the RF Armed Forces, having completed the cleansing of Popasnaya, reached the administrative border of the LPR , the RF Ministry of Defense told us. As a result of the offensive, up to 120 nationalists, 13 armored vehicles and 12 vehicles for various purposes were destroyed, the department added. Fighting continues near Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
In Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk , intense fighting in places. Fighting in the morning near Experienced and Sands. Heavy fighting in the Ugledar direction. Contact on the Novomayorskoye-Nikolskoye line. Battles for the village of Pavlovka. Russian air defense systems in the air near the village of Shirokoe, Dnepropetrovsk region, shot down a Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft.
On the southern front. The calibration of the Odessa and Nikolaev regions continues. The Ukrainian Operational Command "South" reports that the 4th missile strike has already been carried out on the railway bridge across the Dniester estuary in the Odessa region. In the area of Novodmitrovka, Kherson region, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down.
Heavy confrontation continues on Serpent's Island. Ukraine lost 14 planes and helicopters while trying to seize Zmeiny Island . Another Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle "Bayraktar-TB2"
was also shot down by means of air defense of the Russian Federation this afternoon . Due to the impact of the cluster munition "Hurricane"a civilian died . Another arrival from Ukraine was recorded in the center - near the republican trauma center , parts of a projectile were stuck into the ground .
From the interesting: A message appeared on the network that the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to use Eleek electric bikes in the course of performing tasks by special forces . The transition to electric vehicles is justified by the acute shortage of fuel in the Ukrainian army.
***
forwarded from
MilitaryMapZz
about. snake
Another Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle "Bayraktar-TB2" was destroyed by Russian air defense systems this afternoon in the area of \u200b\u200bSnake Island.
The Kiev regime has lost 30 military unmanned aerial vehicles in the area over the past three days. Let me remind you that nine of them are Bayraktar-TB2 drums.
All unmanned vehicles were involved in the failed "PR campaign" of the Kyiv regime to capture on the eve of May 9, the Victory Day in the Great Patriotic War, Snake Island.
In addition, three more bodies of Ukrainian saboteurs, nailed from the sea, were found by Russian servicemen on the shore today. Now, as a result of the failure of the Kiev operation, 27 bodies of militants of Ukrainian special forces units and nationalists remain on Zmeiny.
In total , in the course of an attempt to seize the island, meaningless from a military point of view, the Kiev regime lost three Su-24 bombers and one Su-27 fighter in the Zmeiny area. 10 helicopters of the Ukrainian Air Force were destroyed . Of these, three Mi-8 helicopters with landing troops on board, one Mi-24 support helicopter were shot down in the air. In addition, six more Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters involved in the operation were destroyed on the ground near the settlement of Artsyz, Odessa region.
Also, three Ukrainian armored assault boats "Centaur" with amphibious assault on board were destroyed at sea .
Thus, this adventure ended in disaster for Ukraine. The thoughtless PR action of the Kiev regime to seize Zmeiny Island on the eve of Victory Day led to the senseless death of more than five dozen Ukrainian militants and military personnel of the elite units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , the loss of four aircraft, ten helicopters, three boats and thirty unmanned aerial vehicles.
[based on data from the Russian Ministry of Defense @mod_russia ]
***
forwarded from
Rybar
The situation in the Kharkiv region as of 18:00 on May 10, 2022 The
Armed Forces of Ukraine, national battalions and territorial defense units continue to expand the control zone north of Kharkov . The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is preparing a full-scale offensive against Kazachya Lopan and Tsupovka . The RF Armed Forces continue to hold the line in Liptsy . The fighting is going on in Rubizhne .
At the same time, the Ukrainian command is preparing an operation to cross the Seversky Donets near Chepel and cut off the supply lines of the Izyum group.
The main task of the Ukrainian units in this direction is to divert the forces of the RF Armed Forces on the Izyum and Liman fronts.
Several DRGs have already been sent to the regions bordering Russia. The task of coordinating them and conducting sabotage operations in the border zone with Russia is assigned to officers of the British Special Airborne Service (SAS).
From the Chuguev airfield , the movement of Russian troops is monitored by the Bayraktar UAV, which will aim artillery at columns of troops and equipment crossing from the territory of the Russian Federation.
On the western coast of the Seversky Donets in the village. Zaliman and Chervonoe (to the east of the village of Chepel ) deployed command and observation posts of the 14th brigade and 4th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The main efforts at the moment are focused on forcing small assault groups of the river in the area south of Chepel and seizing control over the settlements of Rudnevo and Ivanovka .
About 300 people from the territorial defense units formed in the west of Ukraine have been deployed under Razdolie . It is likely that the main attack with crossing over the pontoons will be undertaken simultaneously with the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area northeast of Kharkov. High resolution map #map #Russia #Ukraine #Kharkov @rybar * Support us : | (ETH) | (BTC)
4377 7278 0407 7977 0x4739352b67Da6F4064757627D92A08EaDd3fb6b6 33i1BwMuzeYTAUNtiLa6CjvaHtTVYNJfnp
***
forwarded from
south tower
Residents of the northern regions of Crimea are asked not to worry about the sounds of calls in the liberated territories of the Kherson region.
This is the detonation of Ukrainian shells and mines, which were collected by Russian sappers at the sites of clashes or found in trophy military depots, as well as in various caches.
***
forwarded from
Rybar
Losses of the Ukrainian side as a result of a special military operation of the RF Armed Forces as of May 10, 2022
During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost 406 people killed, wounded and captured. The total losses in killed, wounded and captured in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, NGU and State Border Service are over 53 thousand people .
3 tanks , 9 armored vehicles, 11 field artillery and mortars, 3 MLRS, 1 radar, 24 vehicles and special equipment, 2 aircraft, 4 UAVs and 2 boats were lost.
All data are predictable: the Ukrainian side in internal reports does not have the exact number of casualties for each category. Therefore, in internal reports, the tendency is always to underestimate the real number of losses .
***
forwarded from
Rybar
Training camps for territorial defense detachments in the north-east of Ukraine
In the Chernihiv and Sumy regions , there is a general mobilization of citizens into the ranks of territorial defense
. First of all, citizens living in the regions bordering Russia are being recruited. After selection, they are sent to training grounds, where they are taught the basics of combined arms combat, as well as sabotage activities as part of small groups.
The plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to involve the population of Novogorod-Seversky and Koryukovsky districts in the Chernihiv region, Sumy and Shostkadistricts in the Sumy region, bordering on the Bryansk and Kursk regions of the Russian Federation.
The total number of planned mobilized people is more than 5 thousand people . The emphasis is on the inhabitants of these areas because of their knowledge of the area and the theoretical ability to covertly move through it.
Of course, it is impossible to force everyone to fight and risk their lives, and to attract such a large number of civilians is the wet dream of the Kyiv regime.
However, the potential threat should not be underestimated. Even a few groups that have excellent knowledge of geographical information and the characteristics of the area can cause many problems.
List of polygons where training takes place:
Territorial defense training center in Trostyanets in the Sumy region near the runway -50.4913690, 35.0010240
The polygon of the 91st regiment of the National Guard in Akhtyrka in the Sumy region -50.3066667, 34.8805556
169 training center "Desna" in the Chernihiv region -50.9263889, 30.7572222
Border outpost base in Gremyach in Chernihiv region — High 52.3389079, 33.2904927
resolution
map #map #Sumy #Ukraine #Chernihiv #targets @rybar *Support us: | (ETH) | (BTC)
4377 7278 0407 7977 0x4739352b67Da6F4064757627D92A08EaDd3fb6b6 33i1BwMuzeYTAUNtiLa6CjvaHtTVYNJfnp
.***
forwarded from
Rybar
Probable position areas of the Neptune anti-ship missiles near Odessa
The Ukrainian command has repeatedly announced the use of Neptune anti-ship missiles against Russian ships in the Black Sea. Although the complexes pose a serious danger in themselves, we must not forget that under the "Neptunes" it is actually possible to "legend" anti-ship systems of NATO countries.
Until recently, the exact location of the complexes was unknown. However, launcher positions must satisfy several important criteria:
The possibility of a complete overview of the water area and the simultaneous secrecy of the terrain
Availability of missile launch points and quick retreat routes to the shelter area
Rybar's team analyzed possible locations for the Ukrainian Neptun systems.
The most clearly voiced criteria correspond to Zhevakhova Gora in Odessa . It is located at an altitude of more than 40 meters above sea level, and the highest point is hidden from the Black Sea and the coast.
In the vicinity of the mountain there are three potentially convenient points for the location of the DBK. From these positions, you can freely aim at targets under the cover of earthen hills, and the range of the complex allows you to hit objects at a great distance (up to 280 km).
Coordinates:
46.542373, 30.734370
46.543719, 30.733395
46.545665, 30.731672
And taking into account the constant intelligence support from the United States and NATO countries, there is no need to waste time on aiming at the target: getting out of cover, striking and retreating to a closed position takes the shortest possible time. High resolution infographics #Odessa #analysis #Ukraine
***
forwarded from
Rybar
Attack on Donbass from the north: the situation by the end of the day on May 9, 2022 The
allied forces managed to break through the enemy defenses on the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Lysichansk triangle .
Lisichansko-Severodonetsk direction, southern flank:
Popasna clearing completed , fire treatment of enemy positions located to the north and west of the settlement is underway.
East of Popasnaya on the western bank of the Seversky Donets , units of the allied forces occupied the settlement. The lower and adjacent heights, there are battles for the settlement. Toshkovka. Establishing control over Toshkovka will allow access to the Lisichansk-Gorskoe road and to the southern outskirts of Lisichansk.
If, at the same time, a blow from Popasna to the south follows, then this will lead to the encirclement of the garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the settlement. Gorskoe-Zolotoe and will block the road to Lisichanskfrom South.
Lisichansko-Severodonetsk direction, northern flank:
Allied forces crossed the Seversky Donets River and entered the settlement. Belogorovka . Fierce battles were going on in the settlement throughout the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to partially disable the crossing.
Intense battles and artillery duels are going on along the banks of the Donets along the entire length of the Kremenetskiye Lesa National Park in the village of Kremenets . Shipilovo , Privolye , Serebryanka .
In the event that the Allied forces manage to completely take Belogorovka, develop an offensive to the south and occupy the Lisichansk Oil Refinery, the AFU grouping in the triangle of about 8,000 people will be in an operational encirclement.
Severodonetsk-Rubezhnoye:
The enemy was forced out of the territory of the Zarya gunpowder factory in Rubizhnoye .
Fighting continued in the forests adjacent to Severodonetsk.
Limansky direction:
Fights for control over the settlement began. Novoselovka , west of Drobyshevo.
The battles for Liman are complicated by strong forest fires
Izyum direction:
East of Chepel , fighting continues in the forest. The parties are engaged in artillery duels. Great Kamyshevakha was taken .
High resolution map
#Donetsk #Izyum #map #Liman #Lugansk #Popasnaya #Russia #Ukraine #Kharkov @rybar * Support us : | (ETH) | (BTC)
4377 7278 0407 7977 0x4739352b67Da6F4064757627D92A08EaDd3fb6b6 33i1BwMuzeYTAUNtiLa6CjvaHtTVYNJfnp
***
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
Alastair CrookeAlastair Crooke
Source: Al Mayadeen English
8 May 16:23
What lies behind this mess? Well, on the one hand, hubris; but also, the failure to do real homework - and a lack of strategic forethought.
It seems that the war in Ukraine is morphing -- both widening, with a Moldovia-Transnistra and a Polish front opening -- and deepening, with the US preparing for a long-war of Idlib-type attrition designed to weaken and emasculate Russia.
‘New fronts’ are the classical ploys to disperse the opponent’s sharp military focus, by forcing the attention onto fragmented bush-fires lit around the perimeter, which demand action - and perhaps the deployment of troops.
The Polish initiative (co-ordinated directly with the US), is both more grave and sinister. Ostensibly, the objective - as described by the head of Russian External Intelligence (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin - would be to establish military and political control by Warsaw over “its historic territories” which today fall within the boundaries of Ukraine.
Poland would introduce its troops into the Western regions of the country under cover of a mission to “protect the territory from Russian aggression”. Eventually, this would be expected to lead to a partition of Ukraine. The Poles would install a friendly government in the territory they control.
Sinister? Well, very possibly yes. Recall the Idlib model. Turkey (with CIA coordination), invaded the Idlib Province of Syria (also claiming its ‘historic territories’), ostensibly to protect ‘opposition forces’ (i.e. CIA and Turkish-linked jihadists) from the ‘evil Assad regime’.
Idlib then became a semi-autonomous safe haven, under the watchful eyes of Turkish ‘observation’ posts mounted throughout Idlib. The jihadists were ‘normalised’ as a political opposition fighting for democracy, whilst being trained and armed by external Special Operations forces to attempt the overthrow of President Assad.
Is this the American blueprint for the next phase of a ‘long war [against Russia], maybe lasting years’?
Very possibly.
In any event, the EU and the US are likely to agree on a $33 billion budget for Ukraine for the next five months - i.e. through to the US Congressional, mid-term elections! (a timeline that says it all) - that is intended to push massive quantities of increasingly heavy weapons and oodles of cash into Ukraine -- if Russia lets them (which they might not, preferring to destroy the weapons on arrival).
Arguably, the West’s war on Russia has evolved from a failed Financial War - that did not bring about the early collapse of the rouble, nor the Russian financial system – into the all-too-familiar world of mounting, financing and arming an attrition-insurgency.
Or has it? Perhaps it remains true that the financial/sanctions/economic struggle still stands primordial. That does not at all, of course, imply that military outcomes are insignificant. They are not. But rather, it is because the West has misread, and misconceived the Russian conduct of its military operation so badly (through trying to read it through the lens of a blinkered NATO mirroring their own way of war), that a gross underestimate of the risk of catastrophic EU loss in the economic battlespace is possible.
If the risks from sanctions war remain potentially so devastating, why are they being ignored by EU leaders?
This underestimation of the risks facing Europe, principally results from an atmosphere in Washington and Brussels of high euphoria about the course of the military conflict, plus the thrill of inflicting a humiliating civilizational defeat on Putin.
This combination has given rise to a rosy assessment of the battlespace ‘balance of economic strengths’ betwixt the EU and Russia.
Here is the essence: Initially, the EU expected the Russian rouble quickly to collapse due to the EU and US seizing Russian foreign reserves, and the sanctioning of Russia’s Central Bank. And this currency crash, it was assumed, would tip the dominoes to fall in a cascade crash of Russia’s financial institutions.
But this didn’t happen. The EU had calculated solely on the premise of its experience of the 1998 Russian financial crisis, and of the US attempt to crash the rouble in 2014. The short answer as to why their plan failed is that in the interim, Russia had addressed the financial system’s vulnerability to currency attack.
Today, the Russian financial system is stable; its currency has more than recouped initial falls; and its balance of trade has ballooned as a result of today’s higher oil and commodity prices.
Paradoxically the Russian financial situation is stronger than that of many European economies.
Of, course, Russia is experiencing pain. The head of the Central Bank on Friday said that Russia might experience a drop of 8-10% of GDP this year as a result of supply line disruptions, as western states pulled their firms out from Russia. And inflation is high. She gave a figure of 10–12% for real inflation (about on a par with that of Europe). But she also cut interest rates – for the second time in order to stimulate domestic investment.
Far from a picture of imminent economic collapse, she painted one of short-term manageable pain that would largely be righted by 2024 -- in spite of continuing uncertainties.
After the EU scratched heads as to why their initial crash-the-economy plan had failed, the light bulb lit up: Ah! Russia was accumulating so much foreign exchange from selling oil and gas at high prices, that the exchange inflows were bidding up the rouble. Solution: the EU must cease buying Russian oil and gas. It must deprive Moscow of foreign exchange. Then the rouble will be forced into its overdue 'dive'.
Wrong again: In fact, most of the foreign exchange inflows are ‘sterilised’ in Central Bank accounts, precisely so they do not drive up the value of the rouble any further. At the same event when the Central Bank head, Elvira Nabiullina, gave her economic report, Nikolai Patrushev, head of Russia's National Security Council, explained exactly why the rouble did not collapse, and the means by which it had been “sovereigntised’’.
But of course, von der Leyen has banned all news (and such explanations) from Russia being posted in the EU – and, under her bidding, the EU is moving ever closer to banning oil purchases from Russia. The EU is back on the sanctions ‘escalator’ - and they seem content to be there.
Experts have warned plainly that banning Russian ‘everything’ portends ‘curtains’ for Europe: spiking inflation; likely energy-rationing; de-industrialisation, recession – and social unrest.
Why won’t the EU change course?
Well, apart from the euphoria derived from pursuing a major ideological world-change, it is because the EU leaders have the military reality back-to-front.
Western leaders claim that Russia’s military timetable, its strategy, and its aim to ‘subsume Ukraine into Russia’, are a shambles. If you believe that, then taking the economic risk to ‘save Ukraine’ and the liberal ‘order’ may be judged valid.
Were you believe also that Russia’s dysfunctional army could ‘lose the war’ in the coming two weeks, or even within a couple of months at most, then EU leaders might judge soaring energy prices – and even inflation – to be merely a transitory phenomenon. And that by the end of summer, normality in prices would return.
Well, the premise on which this fantastical western assessment is based rests on a complete misreading over how a smaller Russian force could use a 'strategy of maneuver and feint' to shape a battlefield on which larger Ukrainian forces are manipulated into immobilized, fixed, defensive positions - and cut off from support, reinforcement and re-supply.
The Clausewitzian doctrine is that victory is achieved by grinding your opponent’s army into dust (and by by-passing urban areas, where possible). Russian forces are grinding down the fixed, encircled positions of the main Ukrainian army in Donbas, exactly now. Will this be victory? No. Ukraine seems destined for ultimate dismemberment (with certain European states seeking a pound of its erstwhile flesh). It will be a moment fraught with the risk of escalation. It will - with hindsight - likely be viewed as but one chapter in a long war.
What lies behind this mess? Well, on the one hand, hubris; but also, the failure to do real homework - and a lack of strategic forethought. Many misconceptions were driven by info-war pressures. Absurd info-war claims, however untrue, could not be countered because ..."We are in an info-war with Russia, aren't we?" To present an alternative view is to 'aid the Russian 'enemy' with its disinformation'. Where were those experts who actually understand Russia? Excluded: All the misjudgments seem to have been driven by staffers with pure animus: Committed activists, led by a supreme Commander who is personally and emotionally invested in the struggle, too.
https://english.almayadeen.net/articles ... ved-by-mis
*********************************
NATO biological programs in Kazakhstan
May 10, 21:36
While there is a lot of talk about the revealed programs for the development of biological weapons on the territory of Ukraine, about the same thing is happening with much less noise on the territory of formally allied Kazakhstan.
The biological programs of the Atlantic community in Kazakhstan are no less a threat than the development of bioweapons in Ukraine
The facts discovered in the course of the SVO, testifying to the development of biological weapons by the US intelligence services on the basis of an extensive network of military biological laboratories in Ukraine, caused a wide political and public outcry at the international level. The aggressive expansion of the "scientific" infrastructure of the military departments of NATO member countries in the CIS emphasizes the importance of taking measures to counter new biological threats, primarily in the border regions of Russia.
Kazakhstan (the common land state border with Russia is about 6,000 km), which has a significant scientific and industrial potential, is certainly considered by NATO members as an effective outpost in the confrontation with Russia. In an article by MRI Global (NGO, coordination of research centers of the US Department of Defense) Kenneth Yeh, it is explicitly stated: “Kazakhstan’s attractiveness as a partner is due to its history of participation in the biological weapons program in the former Soviet Union, the current plague surveillance system and experience in combating with outbreaks of infectious diseases, including anthrax, brucellosis, plague and tularemia.
Currently, there are three major military biological programs implemented by NATO members on the territory of Kazakhstan:
- The US Department of Defense Biological Threat Reduction Program (BTRP) of the United States Defense Threat Reduction Agency, DTRA) is a long-term US project deployed on the territory of the former Soviet republics: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan;
- Germany's Federal Foreign Office's German Biosecurity Program (GBP) - targeted projects in Georgia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine;
- The United Kingdom's International Biological Security Program (IBSP) is a British project in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, as well as in the countries of the Middle East and Africa.
All three programs are intensively financed in the direction of the development of special infrastructure, the conduct of scientific research "dual" purpose and training.
BTRP has been operating in Kazakhstan since the early 2000s. During the implementation of this program, the Central Reference Laboratory was established in Almaty in 2017, for which $ 102 million was allocated. The specified research center has the most modern laboratories with high levels of biological safety: BSL-3, ABSL-3 and BSL-2, in which work can be carried out with pathogens of dangerous infections of I-II pathogenicity groups, as well as relevant experimental work on bioassay animals. From 2005 to 2018 Within the framework of BTRP, 30 biological projects were implemented in Kazakhstan, for which $ 25 million was spent.
It is important to note that the planning and coordination of the implementation of the BTRP and IBSP programs was carried out under agreements between the US Department of Defense and the UK Department of Defense. In particular, the US and British military jointly developed the KZ-4 project (2005-2007), aimed at studying endemic viral pathogens. Then the larger project KZ-29 (2009-2014), the purpose of which was a comprehensive study of tick-borne infections, including Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, orthohantaviruses, tick-borne encephalitis, rickettsiosis, and the one-year project TAP-10, during which additional causative agents of brucellosis and coxiellosis were studied. In 2020, DTRA specialists provided the Kazakh side with a three-year grant in the amount of $ 1.5 million,
From 2013 to 2021, the German GBP program implemented three biological projects in Kazakhstan with a total value of € 2.5 million. Military specialists from the Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology (Institut für Mikrobiologie der Bundeswehr) and the German Society for International Cooperation (Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit). The first stage of work was the project "German-Kazakhstan information system for diagnosing infectious diseases caused by potential B-agents" (2013-2016). Relevant work was continued in the project "German-Kazakhstan information system for biosafety and biosecurity" (2017-2019 and 2020-2022). The program involved 5 leading specialized institutions of Kazakhstan: Kazakh National Medical University named after S.D. Asfendiyarov,
There is no doubt that military microbiologists from the USA, Great Britain and Germany received unlimited access to comprehensive information about the epidemiological situation, strains from national collections of pathogenic microorganisms and relevant clinical material.
Obviously, all the presented military biological programs are aimed at obtaining detailed information about the pathogens of especially dangerous natural focal infections circulating in the territory of the post-Soviet countries, including Kazakhstan. Genetic modification of strains of these pathogens can lead to the development of effective biological weapons, the action of which mimics the outbreak of a disease of natural origin.
In addition, concerns are raised by reports of studies of the features of the genome of the indigenous population of Kazakhstan, conducted with the active participation of scientists from Columbia University. Targeted collection and analysis of genomic profiles of representatives of nationalities inhabiting the territories adjacent to the borders of the Russian Federation can obviously be used to develop targeted/selective weapons of destruction, as well as to predict the consequences of exposure to pathogenic agents.
Important information about the complex of scientific projects of NATO countries on the territory of Kazakhstan with brief annotations is available on the website of the International Science and Technology Center (ISTC). The chairman of the organization is the director of the Center for Global Security Studies at the Livermore National Laboratory. Lawrence, former Director of the US Agency for Arms Control and Disarmament, Assistant Secretary of Defense, Chief START Negotiator and Deputy Assistant to the President Dr. Ronald Lehman.
Thus, the available objective data allow us to conclude that the activities of the United States and its allies in creating, financing and controlling the operation of an extensive network of military biological laboratories in Kazakhstan are accompanied by an unprecedented increase in biosecurity risks for the population of Central Asia and neighboring countries. These circumstances require the development, together with all interested countries of the Eurasian space, including China and Russia, of a comprehensive action plan to counter new biological threats, including improving the system for detecting and identifying atypical pathogenic biological agents and organizing mutual control of studies in the field of biosafety that have the potential military application.
https://telegra.ph/Biologicheskie-progr ... aine-05-10 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7608101.html
flower wall
May 10, 17:34
Despite the prohibitions and threats, the inhabitants of Tallinn gathered a whole wall of flowers from the Bronze Soldier.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7607542.html
Google Translator
*******************************************
From Cassad's Telegram Account:
***
forwarded from
Readovka
The map of hostilities and the situation on the fronts on the evening of May 10
News from the fronts has not been brought much today, so today we will start from afar, namely from across the ocean. The Pentagon reported on the work done on arming and training Ukrainian units: out of 90 M777 howitzers promised to Ukraine, 89 were handed over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and 120,000 155-mm artillery ammunition was also sent. The training program for handling these systems was completed by 370 military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - and even a training video is attached .
The head of the intelligence agency of the US Department of Defense said that the Ukrainian conflict has reached a dead end. And White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that the United States believes that the situation in Ukraine will be resolved through diplomacy. A lot has been said todaybut little has been done.
And even Lukashenka decided to hold another urgent exercise, and also said that in response to the creation of a 20,000-strong group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the border of Ukraine with Belarus , Minsk would deploy special forces on the border . (And maybe even showed where the attack is being prepared, but we overlooked).
Apparently, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine also had trouble with news from the fronts today . Therefore, I had to give out a photo of 2014 of my own wrecked tank as “victories on the seas”.
On the fronts, in fact, a continuation of yesterday's picture :
In the Kharkiv direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue their bravado, they captured the settlements of Cherkasy Tishki, Russian Tishki, Rubizhnoye and Bayrak. A full-scale offensive is being prepared for Kazachya Lopan and Tsupovka . The RF Armed Forces continue to hold the line in Liptsy . The Ukrainian command is preparing an operation to cross the Seversky Donets near Chepel and cut off the supply lines of the Izyum grouping. The main goal of this undertaking is to divert our forces from the Izyum sector of the offensive.
The Izyum Front continues to break down the fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukrainians get seriously on the Liman direction. To the east, fighting is going on "at the edge" of the Kramatorsk reserve, ours are trying to establish a crossing across the Seversky Donets.
The people's militia of the LPR , with the support of the RF Armed Forces, having completed the cleansing of Popasnaya, reached the administrative border of the LPR , the RF Ministry of Defense told us. As a result of the offensive, up to 120 nationalists, 13 armored vehicles and 12 vehicles for various purposes were destroyed, the department added. Fighting continues near Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
In Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk , intense fighting in places. Fighting in the morning near Experienced and Sands. Heavy fighting in the Ugledar direction. Contact on the Novomayorskoye-Nikolskoye line. Battles for the village of Pavlovka. Russian air defense systems in the air near the village of Shirokoe, Dnepropetrovsk region, shot down a Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft.
On the southern front. The calibration of the Odessa and Nikolaev regions continues. The Ukrainian Operational Command "South" reports that the 4th missile strike has already been carried out on the railway bridge across the Dniester estuary in the Odessa region. In the area of Novodmitrovka, Kherson region, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down.
Heavy confrontation continues on Serpent's Island. Ukraine lost 14 planes and helicopters while trying to seize Zmeiny Island . Another Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle "Bayraktar-TB2"
was also shot down by means of air defense of the Russian Federation this afternoon . Due to the impact of the cluster munition "Hurricane"a civilian died . Another arrival from Ukraine was recorded in the center - near the republican trauma center , parts of a projectile were stuck into the ground .
From the interesting: A message appeared on the network that the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to use Eleek electric bikes in the course of performing tasks by special forces . The transition to electric vehicles is justified by the acute shortage of fuel in the Ukrainian army.
***
forwarded from
MilitaryMapZz
about. snake
Another Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle "Bayraktar-TB2" was destroyed by Russian air defense systems this afternoon in the area of \u200b\u200bSnake Island.
The Kiev regime has lost 30 military unmanned aerial vehicles in the area over the past three days. Let me remind you that nine of them are Bayraktar-TB2 drums.
All unmanned vehicles were involved in the failed "PR campaign" of the Kyiv regime to capture on the eve of May 9, the Victory Day in the Great Patriotic War, Snake Island.
In addition, three more bodies of Ukrainian saboteurs, nailed from the sea, were found by Russian servicemen on the shore today. Now, as a result of the failure of the Kiev operation, 27 bodies of militants of Ukrainian special forces units and nationalists remain on Zmeiny.
In total , in the course of an attempt to seize the island, meaningless from a military point of view, the Kiev regime lost three Su-24 bombers and one Su-27 fighter in the Zmeiny area. 10 helicopters of the Ukrainian Air Force were destroyed . Of these, three Mi-8 helicopters with landing troops on board, one Mi-24 support helicopter were shot down in the air. In addition, six more Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters involved in the operation were destroyed on the ground near the settlement of Artsyz, Odessa region.
Also, three Ukrainian armored assault boats "Centaur" with amphibious assault on board were destroyed at sea .
Thus, this adventure ended in disaster for Ukraine. The thoughtless PR action of the Kiev regime to seize Zmeiny Island on the eve of Victory Day led to the senseless death of more than five dozen Ukrainian militants and military personnel of the elite units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , the loss of four aircraft, ten helicopters, three boats and thirty unmanned aerial vehicles.
[based on data from the Russian Ministry of Defense @mod_russia ]
***
forwarded from
Rybar
The situation in the Kharkiv region as of 18:00 on May 10, 2022 The
Armed Forces of Ukraine, national battalions and territorial defense units continue to expand the control zone north of Kharkov . The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is preparing a full-scale offensive against Kazachya Lopan and Tsupovka . The RF Armed Forces continue to hold the line in Liptsy . The fighting is going on in Rubizhne .
At the same time, the Ukrainian command is preparing an operation to cross the Seversky Donets near Chepel and cut off the supply lines of the Izyum group.
The main task of the Ukrainian units in this direction is to divert the forces of the RF Armed Forces on the Izyum and Liman fronts.
Several DRGs have already been sent to the regions bordering Russia. The task of coordinating them and conducting sabotage operations in the border zone with Russia is assigned to officers of the British Special Airborne Service (SAS).
From the Chuguev airfield , the movement of Russian troops is monitored by the Bayraktar UAV, which will aim artillery at columns of troops and equipment crossing from the territory of the Russian Federation.
On the western coast of the Seversky Donets in the village. Zaliman and Chervonoe (to the east of the village of Chepel ) deployed command and observation posts of the 14th brigade and 4th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The main efforts at the moment are focused on forcing small assault groups of the river in the area south of Chepel and seizing control over the settlements of Rudnevo and Ivanovka .
About 300 people from the territorial defense units formed in the west of Ukraine have been deployed under Razdolie . It is likely that the main attack with crossing over the pontoons will be undertaken simultaneously with the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area northeast of Kharkov. High resolution map #map #Russia #Ukraine #Kharkov @rybar * Support us : | (ETH) | (BTC)
4377 7278 0407 7977 0x4739352b67Da6F4064757627D92A08EaDd3fb6b6 33i1BwMuzeYTAUNtiLa6CjvaHtTVYNJfnp
***
forwarded from
south tower
Residents of the northern regions of Crimea are asked not to worry about the sounds of calls in the liberated territories of the Kherson region.
This is the detonation of Ukrainian shells and mines, which were collected by Russian sappers at the sites of clashes or found in trophy military depots, as well as in various caches.
***
forwarded from
Rybar
Losses of the Ukrainian side as a result of a special military operation of the RF Armed Forces as of May 10, 2022
During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost 406 people killed, wounded and captured. The total losses in killed, wounded and captured in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, NGU and State Border Service are over 53 thousand people .
3 tanks , 9 armored vehicles, 11 field artillery and mortars, 3 MLRS, 1 radar, 24 vehicles and special equipment, 2 aircraft, 4 UAVs and 2 boats were lost.
All data are predictable: the Ukrainian side in internal reports does not have the exact number of casualties for each category. Therefore, in internal reports, the tendency is always to underestimate the real number of losses .
***
forwarded from
Rybar
Training camps for territorial defense detachments in the north-east of Ukraine
In the Chernihiv and Sumy regions , there is a general mobilization of citizens into the ranks of territorial defense
. First of all, citizens living in the regions bordering Russia are being recruited. After selection, they are sent to training grounds, where they are taught the basics of combined arms combat, as well as sabotage activities as part of small groups.
The plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to involve the population of Novogorod-Seversky and Koryukovsky districts in the Chernihiv region, Sumy and Shostkadistricts in the Sumy region, bordering on the Bryansk and Kursk regions of the Russian Federation.
The total number of planned mobilized people is more than 5 thousand people . The emphasis is on the inhabitants of these areas because of their knowledge of the area and the theoretical ability to covertly move through it.
Of course, it is impossible to force everyone to fight and risk their lives, and to attract such a large number of civilians is the wet dream of the Kyiv regime.
However, the potential threat should not be underestimated. Even a few groups that have excellent knowledge of geographical information and the characteristics of the area can cause many problems.
List of polygons where training takes place:
Territorial defense training center in Trostyanets in the Sumy region near the runway -50.4913690, 35.0010240
The polygon of the 91st regiment of the National Guard in Akhtyrka in the Sumy region -50.3066667, 34.8805556
169 training center "Desna" in the Chernihiv region -50.9263889, 30.7572222
Border outpost base in Gremyach in Chernihiv region — High 52.3389079, 33.2904927
resolution
map #map #Sumy #Ukraine #Chernihiv #targets @rybar *Support us: | (ETH) | (BTC)
4377 7278 0407 7977 0x4739352b67Da6F4064757627D92A08EaDd3fb6b6 33i1BwMuzeYTAUNtiLa6CjvaHtTVYNJfnp
.***
forwarded from
Rybar
Probable position areas of the Neptune anti-ship missiles near Odessa
The Ukrainian command has repeatedly announced the use of Neptune anti-ship missiles against Russian ships in the Black Sea. Although the complexes pose a serious danger in themselves, we must not forget that under the "Neptunes" it is actually possible to "legend" anti-ship systems of NATO countries.
Until recently, the exact location of the complexes was unknown. However, launcher positions must satisfy several important criteria:
The possibility of a complete overview of the water area and the simultaneous secrecy of the terrain
Availability of missile launch points and quick retreat routes to the shelter area
Rybar's team analyzed possible locations for the Ukrainian Neptun systems.
The most clearly voiced criteria correspond to Zhevakhova Gora in Odessa . It is located at an altitude of more than 40 meters above sea level, and the highest point is hidden from the Black Sea and the coast.
In the vicinity of the mountain there are three potentially convenient points for the location of the DBK. From these positions, you can freely aim at targets under the cover of earthen hills, and the range of the complex allows you to hit objects at a great distance (up to 280 km).
Coordinates:
46.542373, 30.734370
46.543719, 30.733395
46.545665, 30.731672
And taking into account the constant intelligence support from the United States and NATO countries, there is no need to waste time on aiming at the target: getting out of cover, striking and retreating to a closed position takes the shortest possible time. High resolution infographics #Odessa #analysis #Ukraine
***
forwarded from
Rybar
Attack on Donbass from the north: the situation by the end of the day on May 9, 2022 The
allied forces managed to break through the enemy defenses on the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Lysichansk triangle .
Lisichansko-Severodonetsk direction, southern flank:
Popasna clearing completed , fire treatment of enemy positions located to the north and west of the settlement is underway.
East of Popasnaya on the western bank of the Seversky Donets , units of the allied forces occupied the settlement. The lower and adjacent heights, there are battles for the settlement. Toshkovka. Establishing control over Toshkovka will allow access to the Lisichansk-Gorskoe road and to the southern outskirts of Lisichansk.
If, at the same time, a blow from Popasna to the south follows, then this will lead to the encirclement of the garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the settlement. Gorskoe-Zolotoe and will block the road to Lisichanskfrom South.
Lisichansko-Severodonetsk direction, northern flank:
Allied forces crossed the Seversky Donets River and entered the settlement. Belogorovka . Fierce battles were going on in the settlement throughout the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to partially disable the crossing.
Intense battles and artillery duels are going on along the banks of the Donets along the entire length of the Kremenetskiye Lesa National Park in the village of Kremenets . Shipilovo , Privolye , Serebryanka .
In the event that the Allied forces manage to completely take Belogorovka, develop an offensive to the south and occupy the Lisichansk Oil Refinery, the AFU grouping in the triangle of about 8,000 people will be in an operational encirclement.
Severodonetsk-Rubezhnoye:
The enemy was forced out of the territory of the Zarya gunpowder factory in Rubizhnoye .
Fighting continued in the forests adjacent to Severodonetsk.
Limansky direction:
Fights for control over the settlement began. Novoselovka , west of Drobyshevo.
The battles for Liman are complicated by strong forest fires
Izyum direction:
East of Chepel , fighting continues in the forest. The parties are engaged in artillery duels. Great Kamyshevakha was taken .
High resolution map
#Donetsk #Izyum #map #Liman #Lugansk #Popasnaya #Russia #Ukraine #Kharkov @rybar * Support us : | (ETH) | (BTC)
4377 7278 0407 7977 0x4739352b67Da6F4064757627D92A08EaDd3fb6b6 33i1BwMuzeYTAUNtiLa6CjvaHtTVYNJfnp
***
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator