Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV
Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:12 pm
War in Ukraine. Summary 06/30/2022
July 1, 0:19
War in Ukraine. Summary 06/30/2022
1. Lisichansk.
Fighting in Lisichansk itself, in Privolye, Verkhnekamenka, on the outskirts of Volcheyarovka and beyond Belaya Gora. The battles for Zolotarevka, Disputed and Verkhnekamensk began.
The enemy is trying to hold the corridor through Belogorovka to Seversk in order to be able to move away from Lisichansk. The grouping continues to remain in the operational environment, but there is no full-fledged boiler yet - one more road remains to be cut.
2. Soledar.
Fights near Nikolayevka, in Berestovoye and Belogorovka. The enemy began to fortify the chain of settlements between Soledar and Seversk, where he expects to delay the advance of our troops after the fall of Lisichansk.
3. Artemovsk.
Our troops are slowly advancing in Klinovoe. The enemy's defense in Pokrovsky is holding. The enemy began to prepare for the defense of the outskirts of Artemovsk, expecting the imminent start of battles for the city.
Our troops are stepping up pressure on Kodema and Semigorye in order to cut off the group defending the Uglegorsk TPP and Novolugansk.
In Ukraine, they say that they will transfer reinforcements to the Donbass to keep the situation in this direction.
4. Slavyansk.
It is reported about the capture of Sidorovo and Bogorodichny. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine denies the loss of Bogorodichny and states that he still controls part of the village. According to Sidorov, the situation is still unclear. If the village is taken, then this means the imminent start of battles for Mayaki north of the outskirts of Slavyansk.
On the Izyum direction without significant changes - there is no advance in the area of Dolina and Krasnopolye.
5. Kharkov.
Against the backdrop of ongoing systematic attacks in the area of Kharkov and Chuguev, after the occupation of Dementyevka, the RF Armed Forces are stepping up pressure near Verkhny Saltov, Tsupovka and the village of Udy.
The processing of the Zolochevsky fortified area continues. It is also worth noting the Tu-141 Strizh UAV flying in the direction of Kursk, which was probably trying to identify the capabilities of Russian air defense systems before possible strikes in the Kursk region using OTRK and American MLRS.
6. Avdiivka.
No major changes. Fighting, as before, is taking place near the Avdiivka-Konstantinovka highway. There is no serious progress in the direction of Ochertino and Krasnogorovka. New York has no significant changes so far.
7. Zaporozhye.
On the line Kamenskoye-Orekhov-Gulyaipole-Velikaya Novoselovka without significant changes. Positional fights. It is worth noting that the head of the DPR, Pushilin, after the exchange of prisoners of war in the Zaporozhye region in the Kamensky region, announced the continuation of negotiations on a further exchange of prisoners of war, which will probably also be held in the Zaporozhye region.
8. Nikolaev.
Positional battles in the Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog and Nikopol directions. The enemy claims that he was able to repel the attacks of the RF Armed Forces in the Potemkino area and keep the village behind him.
The RF Armed Forces continue to strike at headquarters and concentrations of troops in the Nikolaev region.
9. Odessa.
The Russian Armed Forces left Zmeiny Island due to increased artillery and rocket attacks.
Ukraine stated that it would establish control over the island, but later stated that conditions for this still needed to be created, fearing that when landing on the island, Ukrainian forces would already become a target for missile strikes.
Politically, the departure from Zmiinoye is linked to the unblocking of grain exports from Ukrainian ports as part of the negotiations that have been going on in Turkey since May. Linking the Serpentine issue with the issue of cargo transit to Kaliningrad has not yet been officially confirmed.
10. Ugledar, Marinka, Raisins - no significant changes.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/55723 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7711512.html
Satellite images of Snake Island 06/29/2022
June 30, 20:33
Satellite images of Zmeiny Island from June 29 after the withdrawal of the Russian garrison. There are traces of strikes from last week, where 1 Pantsir air defense missile system was declared destroyed. Some property is smoking on the pier, which was destroyed before leaving. Also, some dilapidated house is smoking from among those that did not break during the May battles.
In Ukraine, they say they want to establish physical control over the island, but everything seems to be limited to demonstrative events with the landing of small troops by boats or helicopters, the raising of the flag and photographs. Obviously, if you try to linger on the island, missile attacks on the island will follow, if Ukraine does not have the ability to cover the island from the air.
It is also worth noting that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announces the transfer of artillery systems and MLRS, with the help of which they fired at Zmeiny in the Donbass, in order to deter the advance of Russian troops on Artemovsk and Slavyansk.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7711224.html
Blame Russia, Russia and Russia again
June 30, 19:03
About Biden's statements following the NATO summit.
1. Only Russia is to blame for all the economic troubles of the United States.
The Biden administration continues to stand its ground despite growing criticism of such a position within the United States and falling ratings ahead of the midterm elections. They cannot deviate from this line, as this will mean admitting that the administration in the economic field has completely failed, so they will hammer on the topic "Putin is to blame for inflation and rising prices for food, gasoline and gas", just like they hammered the topic earlier "Putin hacked the US election, and Trump is a Kremlin agent." At the same time, no improvements are expected - US residents, according to Biden, "should pay the price as much as necessary."
Let's look at the fruits of this information line in autumn.
2. The US and its satellites will continue to supply weapons to Ukraine.
This is, frankly, not news. Old supplies are gradually being ground down, so new supplies are needed. Their range will obviously expand - they will strive to focus on artillery, MLRS and air defense systems of short and medium range.
All this is an unnecessary reminder that in Ukraine we are at war with the US and NATO, if someone thought it was a "war with Ukraine." Ukraine is just an instrument of American policy here. They expect to use the same tool in the upcoming war for Taiwan, where the puppet government is defiantly heading for a military clash with the PRC.
3. Deliveries of F-16s to Turkey.
Here, the Biden administration actually made a serious concession to Erdogan in order to put pressure on Russia, removing one of the key demands on Erdogan - to abandon the use of the S-400 under the threat of cutting off arms supplies from the United States. This is again a demonstration of the weakening of US influence, when a formal overlord is forced to make concessions to his vassals in order to achieve what he wants. The times of directive control of the world are long gone.
PS. Regarding Erdogan, he skimmed a lot of cream off this issue.
Erdogan announced the price of his consent to the admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO. In addition to the written commitments of Sweden and Finland, which are recorded in a joint declaration and related to the cessation of support from Sweden and Finland to the Gülen organization and Kurdish organizations, Sweden and Finland must extradite more than 70 Kurds associated with the PKK to Turkey. In addition, Biden said today that the United States should supply Turkey with F-16s, as Turkey demanded (the United States had previously refused these deliveries under the pretext that until Turkey abandoned the S-400, it would not receive aircraft from the United States). For complete happiness, the extradition of Gülen and the withdrawal of American troops from Rojava are still not enough.
Also, Sweden and Finland are warned that if they do not fulfill their obligations, the Turkish parliament will not support the approval of the admission of these countries to NATO.
In general, "Drug Rejep" was able to twist the hands of the US and NATO and is now trying to fix its winnings. No joke - from the point of view of Turkey, an excellent combination. But the Turks, of course, suspect that they can be thrown.
To better understand the dilemma of the Europeans. In order to get Turkey's consent, they need to extradite 73 people to Turkey who were under political protection on the territory of a European country and were not considered terrorists. On the contrary, Turkey's claims for their extradition were strongly rejected.
Now, for the sake of political necessity, they need to extradite these people (in Turkey, at best, a prison and long sentences await them on charges of terrorism). Erdogan offers this choice to those who like to talk about it. that they "will never exchange democratic principles for political necessity." For Sweden and Finland, this is a complete Faustian deal.
The price of joining NATO is the extradition of 73 people for reprisal.
We'll watch with interest how the European Democrats will try to seep "between the raindrops" on this issue.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/55672 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7710962.html
(Couldn't bring myself to use a Ben Garrison cartoon.)
Google Translator
***********************
No, NATO Will Not Get Ready For War
I had a good laugh when I read this nonsense:
NATO to boost troops on high alert to over 300,000 -Stoltenberg
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - NATO will boost the number of troops on high alert by more than sevenfold to over 300,000, its secretary-general said on Monday, as allies prepared to adopt a new strategy describing Moscow as a direct threat four months into the Ukraine war.
...
Stoltenberg said NATO in future would have "well over 300,000" troops on high alert, compared to 40,000 troops that currently make up the alliance's existing quick reaction force, the NATO Response Force (NRF).
The new force model is meant to replace the NRF and "provide a larger pool of high readiness forces across domains, land, sea, air and cyber, which will be pre-assigned to specific plans for the defence of allies," a NATO official said.
NATO does not have 300,000 troops to put on high alert. The troops are controlled by member states and I see no willingness by any of them to shoulder the costs that a real high alert status would have. Units on high alert means that they fully manned with no one on vacation and with enough supplies ready to sustain weeks of battle. All of that costs money. Member states will instead designate existing units as 'high alert' ones and change nothing else in their usual equipment and training.
The statement is pure NATO public relations fluff. Stoltenberg did not even ask or inform member states before he made that announcement:
Stoltenberg’s announcement caught the top defense officials of many NATO members off guard, leading them to question which of their forces, if any, were being included in the 300,000 figure.
“Maybe it’s number magic?” said one senior European defense official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk frankly about the confusion.
Several senior European security policymakers said they were taken by surprise, with no advance notice of the plan to expand NATO’s quick-response force from its current size of 40,000 in light of the Ukraine war and Russia’s ongoing military threats to NATO territory.
This was one of the ideas that are typical for NATO bureaucrats who live in their own fantasy world. They are the reason why the French president Macron has called NATO 'brain dead'. And no, it is really nothing more than an idea:
A NATO official, speaking on the condition of anonymity per the alliance’s ground rules, said that country-specific numbers still needed pinning down. Even the 300,000 total is theoretical for the moment: “The concept has not been fully worked up yet,” the official said. “We will have to do more to build up the model before we can work out what national commitments can be.”
Even so, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht has already said her country will offer up 15,000 troops — a full division.
Lambrecht offered nothing. She will put the fake 'high alert' label on an existing division and change nothing else. That she did this is actually quite revealing. If Germany as one of the bigger NATO countries offers only one division size element where will the other 19 division size elements come from that are needed to make up a 300,000 strong force? Do they even exist?
NATO is just a shadow of its former self. Member states now have only a few troops that can be designated to work under NATO. Even those lack ammunition and depot weapons to make up for eventually losses. Some now even lack the industries to make more systems and grenades. They are also unable to make new ones that are fit for their purposes.
Neither of the big or small 'modern' weapons that were given to Ukraine has made a difference. The Javelins had empty batteries, the British NLAW anti-tank weapons were too weak to defeat Russian armor. Switchblade suicide drones are not controllable under Russian electronic warfare conditions. Stinger missiles have heat sensors that are too slow to acquire a fast moving target. The 'light' howitzer M-777 are too light for real battle conditions and tend to break.
NATO countries have put too much money into their air forces which will be unable to break through Russia's excellent air defenses. NATO's air defense is in contrast too weak. Just ask the Saudis how well their Patriot systems worked against Yemeni drones. Those systems can do nothing against Russia's medium range missiles. System like Iskander and Kalibr, of which Russia has many, are hard to find in NATO armies.
What is the last time NATO units have trained under electronic warfare conditions?
The New York Times interviewed nearly two dozen Ukrainian soldiers over the last several weeks who all pointed to similar problems: Russians jammed their radios constantly; they didn’t have enough communication gear; and they often had difficulty getting through to a commander to call for artillery support. Talking to units stationed nearby was also an issue, they said, which has led to Ukrainian forces occasionally firing on one another.
...
The General said that his two off-the-shelf radios were jammed constantly.
“They would use the stronger signal on the same frequency,” he said.
Troops in more specialized units have been issued U.S.-supplied encrypted radios and can speak to one another unhindered, one soldier said, but the radio’s high output means the Russians can find the locations they are broadcasting from.
“This is why we stopped communicating and only communicated the necessary minimum, such as if an evacuation was needed or an urgent help,” the soldier, who goes by the name Raccoon, added.
Materially NATO is not ready to fight. Politically it is also not ready.
John Helmer quotes excerpts from an interview with the former chief of staff of the Polish army, Miecyslaw Gocul:
You complain, and [NATO Secretary-General] Jens Stoltenberg has announced: “The NATO summit in Madrid will be groundbreaking. With a new strategic concept, we will make a fundamental change in NATO’s deterrence and defense.”
Before the NATO summit in Warsaw [in 2016]), at the Pact’s military committee, I asked Stoltenberg: what will be the guarantees for the eastern flank? He replied with a question: what else does Poland expect? I said straight out: security and prosperity, which is what the rest of us sitting at the table want.”
“Just like then, I hear the same slogans today, such as ‘do more with less’. There are also other fine-sounding calls, but these are only political slogans calculated for a positive public reaction and minimizing costs. They do not really bring about any political and military solutions.
...
Now the tension between Russia and Lithuania is growing, because the sanctions are blocking the Kaliningrad Oblast more and more. Could this be a hotspot?
If Putin wanted to start the war further and decided to cut a corridor through the Baltics to the Kaliningrad District at the Suwałki Gap, what forces could stop him? Could the forces of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland stop Putin? Not at all. Putin will not be stopped by the Americans, who are present on the eastern flank only in small numbers. I repeat, Russia talks and calculates only with strong countries and organizations. And NATO in our region is weak.
It indeed is. And except for few east European hot heads, everyone hopes that it will stay so. None of the bigger NATO member countries wants a large fight with Russia. That includes the United States. Why then prepare for it? Why buy weapons that will never be used?
On the other side Russia does not want anything from Europe. It does not have an ideology that seeks expansion. It wants to be left alone.
NATO is a cold war relict that was kept alive to give the U.S. some political advantages. Its real purpose has never changed: keep Germany down, Russia out and the U.S. in Europe. That will only change when western Europe starts to rebel against it.
Unfortunately the chances for that are low.
Posted by b on June 30, 2022 at 15:41 UTC | Permalink
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
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forwarded from
RODION_MIROSHNIK
Allied troops are attacking Lisichansk from four sides.
In the suburbs of Lisichansk from the south and east, most of the settlements are already under the control of the allied forces of the LPR and Russia. Today they completed the cleanup at the Lisichansk Oil Refinery - in Verkhnekamenka, in nearby Zolotorevka and the southern suburb of Lisichansk - Belaya Gora. There the situation is clear and indisputable in favor of the liberators.
The attack on Lisichansk and the advance inside Lisichansk are already underway from four directions:
From the south, in the area of the RTI plant (rubber products), the allied forces not only advanced into the city, but also carried out a sweep of nearby quarters.
From the north - from the side of the glass factory Proletary, the offensive is also actively developing. Peacekeeping troops advanced into the depths of urban development by about 3-4 blocks;
On the right bank of the Seversky Donets, after yesterday's crossing of the allied units, a wide bridgehead was formed with a center in the area of the helipad. From there, with a fairly wide front, they move in a south-westerly direction towards the city center.
Another group of allied troops is moving to meet them from the concrete goods section and the Melnikov mine, squeezing the vise around the central regions of Lisichansk.
At the same time, the allied forces are striking another satellite of Lisichansk - Novodruzhesk. Fortified areas with underground passages were found there, where Ukrainian militants are still hiding. How many of them will survive there after massive artillery strikes, only God knows, but under such an onslaught they will not be able to hold this area for a long time.
As a result, the Lysychansk group is dismantled from four directions at once, pushing large enterprises away from the main large urban industrial zones, where the enemy could potentially catch on, but they leave less and less chances of such, step by step, bringing the complete liberation of the territory of the Lugansk Republic closer.
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Сolonelcassad
The Russian embassy in Bulgaria proposed to cancel no later than 12 noon on Friday the decision to expel 70 Russian diplomats by the Petkov government, which was recently passed a vote of no confidence. In response to this vote, the already outgoing Petkov decided to take revenge on Russia, accusing the Russian ambassador and Russia as a whole of the fact that it was because of her that the government was fired (in fact, the reasons for the strengthening of the opposition against the background of the worsening socio-economic crisis in Bulgaria, with which the Petkov government could not cope). On this basis, 70 diplomats and technical staff of the diplomatic mission are expelled on false charges of espionage.
Now, Russia is telling Bulgaria that in response to such actions, a break in diplomatic relations between Russia and Bulgaria may follow, suggesting that the Bulgarian "elites", in addition to Petkov, roll back the decision. It is obvious that the West will seek to direct events along the lines of a complete rupture of diplomatic relations between the Russian Federation and Bulgaria. But there is a nuance here - the Bulgarian opposition wants to resume negotiations on the resumption of gas supplies to Bulgaria under the ruble scheme, as many other European countries are doing. It is quite clear that with the rupture of diplomatic relations, there is simply no chance of resuming gas supplies to Bulgaria, and this will come back to haunt Bulgaria in the coming autumn and winter.
***
Сolonelcassad
The Kremlin said that Russia will not comply with any decisions of the ECtHR related to foreign mercenaries. Regarding their fate, one should contact the DPR.
Recently, the father of a Moroccan mercenary sentenced to death turned to Putin with a request to pardon his son. This is also his answer. All questions about mercenaries - to the DPR.
Of course, Russia has ample opportunities to influence the decisions of the DPR. But it is objectively beneficial for Russia to switch contacts to people's republics, which requires the actual recognition of their existence, through recognition of the decisions of their legal system. You can choose not to recognize the DPR de jure as much as you like, but if you want to somehow discuss foreign mercenaries, you will have to do it de facto.
***
Сolonelcassad
The situation in the Severodonetsk-Lysichansk direction
as of 21:00 on June 30, 2022
Despite the statements of officials of the Luhansk People's Republic, the battle for Lysichansk is still far from over. There is no question of any control of 30-50% of the city.
From the side of Severodonetsk , the combing of the left bank of the Seversky Donets continues: scattered detachments of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, national battalions and territorial defense are hiding in dachas and groves. Until the entire territory is completely cleared, it is somewhat premature to talk about establishing full control.
The cleanup of the Lisichansk oil refinery has been completed . The Ukrainian units that retreated to Zolotarevka are trying to gain a foothold along the last route of the retreat route from Lysichansk . After the capture of the village, the allied forces will deprive the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the only communication route between Lisichansk and Seversk. Now Ukrainian units are withdrawing in fields under artillery fire through Belogorovka .
The front line runs along the railroad in the area of Novozolotarevka station . The village of Verkhnekamenka south of the railway is controlled by the RF Armed Forces. There are fierce battles.
To the west of Lisichansk, Allied forces advance on Seversk from two directions: from the refinery towards Verkhnekamenskoye and from Nikolaevka towards Disputed .
To the west of Verkhnekamenskoye, the remnants of the 111th Terodefense Brigade are hastily equipping positions . Of the "serious" weapons, two MANPADS "Stinger" and "Perun" remained.
On the southern outskirts of Lisichansk , fighting continues in the area of the RTI plant and Belaya Gora .
Chechen units crossed the Seversky Donets near Privolye from Staraya Krasnyanka and, together with the People's Militia of the DPR, are storming the settlement. The message about the complete capture of Privolye was premature: pockets of resistance remain in the village.
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Сolonelcassad
The situation in the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog direction
as of 19.30 June 30, 2022
Currently, the battles in this direction are taking on a positional character. Artillery duels are underway, the sides are probing for weaknesses in the defense.
To track the activities of Russian troops on the line of contact from the Kanatovo airfield , at least one Bayraktar UAV operated. A Mi-8 helicopter was operating in the vicinity of Pribugsky .
Engineering units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are strengthening fortifications at the Tokarevo - Nikolaevka line .
A batch of diesel fuel arrived in Konstantinovka , supplied by the Polish oil refinery Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen .
Artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shelled the positions of the RF Armed Forces in Andreevka , Vysokopole Lozovoe , Pravdino and Ivanovka .
In addition, an attempt was made to sabotage in the form of detonating a small explosive package in the area of the pre-trial detention center in Kherson . There were no casualties.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation struck at the stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Novonikolaevka . As a result, two servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were killed and three wounded.
The situation in the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog direction has not undergone serious changes . Due to the large involvement of forces and means in the Donbass , the Ukrainian side is not able to proceed to the previously announced counterattack, mainly holding positional defense.
However, the restoration of control over Zmeiny Island , provided there is no retaliatory action by the RF Armed Forces, will free up most of the resources involved in the Odessa region. The bulk of them will be sent to the area of active hostilities in the Soledar direction, and the rest, most likely, will be used for the planned counteroffensive in the Kherson region.
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forwarded from
War Through the Eyes of a Journalist
About the battles in the north of Slavyansk
I was repeatedly in Sidorovo, Mayaki and Slavyansk before the war, here is a small analytics
1. In 1943, the Red Army was already fighting the hardest battles on the Mius Front in these parts. The Germans, as well as now the Ukrainians, occupy the dominant heights along the Sidorovo-Mayaki-Slavyansk highway. In some places, the track generally passes on both sides of the heights, reaching up to 20 meters in height.
2. As in 1943, there is no room for armored groups to maneuver. To the east from the highway Sidorovo - Mayaki - Slavyansk flows the river Seversky Donetsk, to the west - a dense forest (Mayatskoye forestry)
3. Back in the fall of 2014, local residents from Sidorovo called us and said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were mining all the fields and plantings. In this regard, the allied forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the DPR and the LPR have only one way left - to break through the Ukrainian defenses along the highway. All this takes time.
But I have no doubt that we will soon return to Slovyansk, as promised in 2014.
***
Сolonelcassad
Support for the NWO in Russia, according to a recent public opinion poll, is 72%, as in the spring. The number of non-supporters even slightly decreased from 19 to 17%. The hopes of the US and NATO that economic problems, sanctions or a delay in the operation in Ukraine will be able to dilute this support have not fully materialized at the moment. Although even in the first half of spring they still harbored hopes for "anti-war protests" and "overthrow of the regime." Now they admit at the official level that this bet did not work and they are betting on a long exhausting campaign.
Oddly enough, the actions and statements of the West and Ukraine themselves play an important role in maintaining support for the SVO, which, in their clarity, perfectly explain to citizens against whom and why the SVO is being carried out. Hence the existence of a certain percentage of citizens who at the beginning of the NWO did not support it, but then, after looking at the statements and actions of the enemy, changed their minds.
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Сolonelcassad
Regarding the statements that Zmeiny was exchanged for transit to Kaliningrad as part of the "grain negotiations" and the deal allegedly looks like this - the Russian Federation withdraws troops from Zmeiny, Ukraine clears ports and starts exporting grain to Turkey (from a certain stage under the control of Russian ships? Russia demanded inspection of ships , Ukraine refused), and the EU unblocks Kaliningrad (allegedly from Monday), then we will be able to see at the beginning of next week how much this is true.
***
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
July 1, 0:19
War in Ukraine. Summary 06/30/2022
1. Lisichansk.
Fighting in Lisichansk itself, in Privolye, Verkhnekamenka, on the outskirts of Volcheyarovka and beyond Belaya Gora. The battles for Zolotarevka, Disputed and Verkhnekamensk began.
The enemy is trying to hold the corridor through Belogorovka to Seversk in order to be able to move away from Lisichansk. The grouping continues to remain in the operational environment, but there is no full-fledged boiler yet - one more road remains to be cut.
2. Soledar.
Fights near Nikolayevka, in Berestovoye and Belogorovka. The enemy began to fortify the chain of settlements between Soledar and Seversk, where he expects to delay the advance of our troops after the fall of Lisichansk.
3. Artemovsk.
Our troops are slowly advancing in Klinovoe. The enemy's defense in Pokrovsky is holding. The enemy began to prepare for the defense of the outskirts of Artemovsk, expecting the imminent start of battles for the city.
Our troops are stepping up pressure on Kodema and Semigorye in order to cut off the group defending the Uglegorsk TPP and Novolugansk.
In Ukraine, they say that they will transfer reinforcements to the Donbass to keep the situation in this direction.
4. Slavyansk.
It is reported about the capture of Sidorovo and Bogorodichny. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine denies the loss of Bogorodichny and states that he still controls part of the village. According to Sidorov, the situation is still unclear. If the village is taken, then this means the imminent start of battles for Mayaki north of the outskirts of Slavyansk.
On the Izyum direction without significant changes - there is no advance in the area of Dolina and Krasnopolye.
5. Kharkov.
Against the backdrop of ongoing systematic attacks in the area of Kharkov and Chuguev, after the occupation of Dementyevka, the RF Armed Forces are stepping up pressure near Verkhny Saltov, Tsupovka and the village of Udy.
The processing of the Zolochevsky fortified area continues. It is also worth noting the Tu-141 Strizh UAV flying in the direction of Kursk, which was probably trying to identify the capabilities of Russian air defense systems before possible strikes in the Kursk region using OTRK and American MLRS.
6. Avdiivka.
No major changes. Fighting, as before, is taking place near the Avdiivka-Konstantinovka highway. There is no serious progress in the direction of Ochertino and Krasnogorovka. New York has no significant changes so far.
7. Zaporozhye.
On the line Kamenskoye-Orekhov-Gulyaipole-Velikaya Novoselovka without significant changes. Positional fights. It is worth noting that the head of the DPR, Pushilin, after the exchange of prisoners of war in the Zaporozhye region in the Kamensky region, announced the continuation of negotiations on a further exchange of prisoners of war, which will probably also be held in the Zaporozhye region.
8. Nikolaev.
Positional battles in the Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog and Nikopol directions. The enemy claims that he was able to repel the attacks of the RF Armed Forces in the Potemkino area and keep the village behind him.
The RF Armed Forces continue to strike at headquarters and concentrations of troops in the Nikolaev region.
9. Odessa.
The Russian Armed Forces left Zmeiny Island due to increased artillery and rocket attacks.
Ukraine stated that it would establish control over the island, but later stated that conditions for this still needed to be created, fearing that when landing on the island, Ukrainian forces would already become a target for missile strikes.
Politically, the departure from Zmiinoye is linked to the unblocking of grain exports from Ukrainian ports as part of the negotiations that have been going on in Turkey since May. Linking the Serpentine issue with the issue of cargo transit to Kaliningrad has not yet been officially confirmed.
10. Ugledar, Marinka, Raisins - no significant changes.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/55723 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7711512.html
Satellite images of Snake Island 06/29/2022
June 30, 20:33
Satellite images of Zmeiny Island from June 29 after the withdrawal of the Russian garrison. There are traces of strikes from last week, where 1 Pantsir air defense missile system was declared destroyed. Some property is smoking on the pier, which was destroyed before leaving. Also, some dilapidated house is smoking from among those that did not break during the May battles.
In Ukraine, they say they want to establish physical control over the island, but everything seems to be limited to demonstrative events with the landing of small troops by boats or helicopters, the raising of the flag and photographs. Obviously, if you try to linger on the island, missile attacks on the island will follow, if Ukraine does not have the ability to cover the island from the air.
It is also worth noting that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announces the transfer of artillery systems and MLRS, with the help of which they fired at Zmeiny in the Donbass, in order to deter the advance of Russian troops on Artemovsk and Slavyansk.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7711224.html
Blame Russia, Russia and Russia again
June 30, 19:03
About Biden's statements following the NATO summit.
1. Only Russia is to blame for all the economic troubles of the United States.
The Biden administration continues to stand its ground despite growing criticism of such a position within the United States and falling ratings ahead of the midterm elections. They cannot deviate from this line, as this will mean admitting that the administration in the economic field has completely failed, so they will hammer on the topic "Putin is to blame for inflation and rising prices for food, gasoline and gas", just like they hammered the topic earlier "Putin hacked the US election, and Trump is a Kremlin agent." At the same time, no improvements are expected - US residents, according to Biden, "should pay the price as much as necessary."
Let's look at the fruits of this information line in autumn.
2. The US and its satellites will continue to supply weapons to Ukraine.
This is, frankly, not news. Old supplies are gradually being ground down, so new supplies are needed. Their range will obviously expand - they will strive to focus on artillery, MLRS and air defense systems of short and medium range.
All this is an unnecessary reminder that in Ukraine we are at war with the US and NATO, if someone thought it was a "war with Ukraine." Ukraine is just an instrument of American policy here. They expect to use the same tool in the upcoming war for Taiwan, where the puppet government is defiantly heading for a military clash with the PRC.
3. Deliveries of F-16s to Turkey.
Here, the Biden administration actually made a serious concession to Erdogan in order to put pressure on Russia, removing one of the key demands on Erdogan - to abandon the use of the S-400 under the threat of cutting off arms supplies from the United States. This is again a demonstration of the weakening of US influence, when a formal overlord is forced to make concessions to his vassals in order to achieve what he wants. The times of directive control of the world are long gone.
PS. Regarding Erdogan, he skimmed a lot of cream off this issue.
Erdogan announced the price of his consent to the admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO. In addition to the written commitments of Sweden and Finland, which are recorded in a joint declaration and related to the cessation of support from Sweden and Finland to the Gülen organization and Kurdish organizations, Sweden and Finland must extradite more than 70 Kurds associated with the PKK to Turkey. In addition, Biden said today that the United States should supply Turkey with F-16s, as Turkey demanded (the United States had previously refused these deliveries under the pretext that until Turkey abandoned the S-400, it would not receive aircraft from the United States). For complete happiness, the extradition of Gülen and the withdrawal of American troops from Rojava are still not enough.
Also, Sweden and Finland are warned that if they do not fulfill their obligations, the Turkish parliament will not support the approval of the admission of these countries to NATO.
In general, "Drug Rejep" was able to twist the hands of the US and NATO and is now trying to fix its winnings. No joke - from the point of view of Turkey, an excellent combination. But the Turks, of course, suspect that they can be thrown.
To better understand the dilemma of the Europeans. In order to get Turkey's consent, they need to extradite 73 people to Turkey who were under political protection on the territory of a European country and were not considered terrorists. On the contrary, Turkey's claims for their extradition were strongly rejected.
Now, for the sake of political necessity, they need to extradite these people (in Turkey, at best, a prison and long sentences await them on charges of terrorism). Erdogan offers this choice to those who like to talk about it. that they "will never exchange democratic principles for political necessity." For Sweden and Finland, this is a complete Faustian deal.
The price of joining NATO is the extradition of 73 people for reprisal.
We'll watch with interest how the European Democrats will try to seep "between the raindrops" on this issue.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/55672 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7710962.html
(Couldn't bring myself to use a Ben Garrison cartoon.)
Google Translator
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No, NATO Will Not Get Ready For War
I had a good laugh when I read this nonsense:
NATO to boost troops on high alert to over 300,000 -Stoltenberg
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - NATO will boost the number of troops on high alert by more than sevenfold to over 300,000, its secretary-general said on Monday, as allies prepared to adopt a new strategy describing Moscow as a direct threat four months into the Ukraine war.
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Stoltenberg said NATO in future would have "well over 300,000" troops on high alert, compared to 40,000 troops that currently make up the alliance's existing quick reaction force, the NATO Response Force (NRF).
The new force model is meant to replace the NRF and "provide a larger pool of high readiness forces across domains, land, sea, air and cyber, which will be pre-assigned to specific plans for the defence of allies," a NATO official said.
NATO does not have 300,000 troops to put on high alert. The troops are controlled by member states and I see no willingness by any of them to shoulder the costs that a real high alert status would have. Units on high alert means that they fully manned with no one on vacation and with enough supplies ready to sustain weeks of battle. All of that costs money. Member states will instead designate existing units as 'high alert' ones and change nothing else in their usual equipment and training.
The statement is pure NATO public relations fluff. Stoltenberg did not even ask or inform member states before he made that announcement:
Stoltenberg’s announcement caught the top defense officials of many NATO members off guard, leading them to question which of their forces, if any, were being included in the 300,000 figure.
“Maybe it’s number magic?” said one senior European defense official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk frankly about the confusion.
Several senior European security policymakers said they were taken by surprise, with no advance notice of the plan to expand NATO’s quick-response force from its current size of 40,000 in light of the Ukraine war and Russia’s ongoing military threats to NATO territory.
This was one of the ideas that are typical for NATO bureaucrats who live in their own fantasy world. They are the reason why the French president Macron has called NATO 'brain dead'. And no, it is really nothing more than an idea:
A NATO official, speaking on the condition of anonymity per the alliance’s ground rules, said that country-specific numbers still needed pinning down. Even the 300,000 total is theoretical for the moment: “The concept has not been fully worked up yet,” the official said. “We will have to do more to build up the model before we can work out what national commitments can be.”
Even so, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht has already said her country will offer up 15,000 troops — a full division.
Lambrecht offered nothing. She will put the fake 'high alert' label on an existing division and change nothing else. That she did this is actually quite revealing. If Germany as one of the bigger NATO countries offers only one division size element where will the other 19 division size elements come from that are needed to make up a 300,000 strong force? Do they even exist?
NATO is just a shadow of its former self. Member states now have only a few troops that can be designated to work under NATO. Even those lack ammunition and depot weapons to make up for eventually losses. Some now even lack the industries to make more systems and grenades. They are also unable to make new ones that are fit for their purposes.
Neither of the big or small 'modern' weapons that were given to Ukraine has made a difference. The Javelins had empty batteries, the British NLAW anti-tank weapons were too weak to defeat Russian armor. Switchblade suicide drones are not controllable under Russian electronic warfare conditions. Stinger missiles have heat sensors that are too slow to acquire a fast moving target. The 'light' howitzer M-777 are too light for real battle conditions and tend to break.
NATO countries have put too much money into their air forces which will be unable to break through Russia's excellent air defenses. NATO's air defense is in contrast too weak. Just ask the Saudis how well their Patriot systems worked against Yemeni drones. Those systems can do nothing against Russia's medium range missiles. System like Iskander and Kalibr, of which Russia has many, are hard to find in NATO armies.
What is the last time NATO units have trained under electronic warfare conditions?
The New York Times interviewed nearly two dozen Ukrainian soldiers over the last several weeks who all pointed to similar problems: Russians jammed their radios constantly; they didn’t have enough communication gear; and they often had difficulty getting through to a commander to call for artillery support. Talking to units stationed nearby was also an issue, they said, which has led to Ukrainian forces occasionally firing on one another.
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The General said that his two off-the-shelf radios were jammed constantly.
“They would use the stronger signal on the same frequency,” he said.
Troops in more specialized units have been issued U.S.-supplied encrypted radios and can speak to one another unhindered, one soldier said, but the radio’s high output means the Russians can find the locations they are broadcasting from.
“This is why we stopped communicating and only communicated the necessary minimum, such as if an evacuation was needed or an urgent help,” the soldier, who goes by the name Raccoon, added.
Materially NATO is not ready to fight. Politically it is also not ready.
John Helmer quotes excerpts from an interview with the former chief of staff of the Polish army, Miecyslaw Gocul:
You complain, and [NATO Secretary-General] Jens Stoltenberg has announced: “The NATO summit in Madrid will be groundbreaking. With a new strategic concept, we will make a fundamental change in NATO’s deterrence and defense.”
Before the NATO summit in Warsaw [in 2016]), at the Pact’s military committee, I asked Stoltenberg: what will be the guarantees for the eastern flank? He replied with a question: what else does Poland expect? I said straight out: security and prosperity, which is what the rest of us sitting at the table want.”
“Just like then, I hear the same slogans today, such as ‘do more with less’. There are also other fine-sounding calls, but these are only political slogans calculated for a positive public reaction and minimizing costs. They do not really bring about any political and military solutions.
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Now the tension between Russia and Lithuania is growing, because the sanctions are blocking the Kaliningrad Oblast more and more. Could this be a hotspot?
If Putin wanted to start the war further and decided to cut a corridor through the Baltics to the Kaliningrad District at the Suwałki Gap, what forces could stop him? Could the forces of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland stop Putin? Not at all. Putin will not be stopped by the Americans, who are present on the eastern flank only in small numbers. I repeat, Russia talks and calculates only with strong countries and organizations. And NATO in our region is weak.
It indeed is. And except for few east European hot heads, everyone hopes that it will stay so. None of the bigger NATO member countries wants a large fight with Russia. That includes the United States. Why then prepare for it? Why buy weapons that will never be used?
On the other side Russia does not want anything from Europe. It does not have an ideology that seeks expansion. It wants to be left alone.
NATO is a cold war relict that was kept alive to give the U.S. some political advantages. Its real purpose has never changed: keep Germany down, Russia out and the U.S. in Europe. That will only change when western Europe starts to rebel against it.
Unfortunately the chances for that are low.
Posted by b on June 30, 2022 at 15:41 UTC | Permalink
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
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forwarded from
RODION_MIROSHNIK
Allied troops are attacking Lisichansk from four sides.
In the suburbs of Lisichansk from the south and east, most of the settlements are already under the control of the allied forces of the LPR and Russia. Today they completed the cleanup at the Lisichansk Oil Refinery - in Verkhnekamenka, in nearby Zolotorevka and the southern suburb of Lisichansk - Belaya Gora. There the situation is clear and indisputable in favor of the liberators.
The attack on Lisichansk and the advance inside Lisichansk are already underway from four directions:
From the south, in the area of the RTI plant (rubber products), the allied forces not only advanced into the city, but also carried out a sweep of nearby quarters.
From the north - from the side of the glass factory Proletary, the offensive is also actively developing. Peacekeeping troops advanced into the depths of urban development by about 3-4 blocks;
On the right bank of the Seversky Donets, after yesterday's crossing of the allied units, a wide bridgehead was formed with a center in the area of the helipad. From there, with a fairly wide front, they move in a south-westerly direction towards the city center.
Another group of allied troops is moving to meet them from the concrete goods section and the Melnikov mine, squeezing the vise around the central regions of Lisichansk.
At the same time, the allied forces are striking another satellite of Lisichansk - Novodruzhesk. Fortified areas with underground passages were found there, where Ukrainian militants are still hiding. How many of them will survive there after massive artillery strikes, only God knows, but under such an onslaught they will not be able to hold this area for a long time.
As a result, the Lysychansk group is dismantled from four directions at once, pushing large enterprises away from the main large urban industrial zones, where the enemy could potentially catch on, but they leave less and less chances of such, step by step, bringing the complete liberation of the territory of the Lugansk Republic closer.
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Сolonelcassad
The Russian embassy in Bulgaria proposed to cancel no later than 12 noon on Friday the decision to expel 70 Russian diplomats by the Petkov government, which was recently passed a vote of no confidence. In response to this vote, the already outgoing Petkov decided to take revenge on Russia, accusing the Russian ambassador and Russia as a whole of the fact that it was because of her that the government was fired (in fact, the reasons for the strengthening of the opposition against the background of the worsening socio-economic crisis in Bulgaria, with which the Petkov government could not cope). On this basis, 70 diplomats and technical staff of the diplomatic mission are expelled on false charges of espionage.
Now, Russia is telling Bulgaria that in response to such actions, a break in diplomatic relations between Russia and Bulgaria may follow, suggesting that the Bulgarian "elites", in addition to Petkov, roll back the decision. It is obvious that the West will seek to direct events along the lines of a complete rupture of diplomatic relations between the Russian Federation and Bulgaria. But there is a nuance here - the Bulgarian opposition wants to resume negotiations on the resumption of gas supplies to Bulgaria under the ruble scheme, as many other European countries are doing. It is quite clear that with the rupture of diplomatic relations, there is simply no chance of resuming gas supplies to Bulgaria, and this will come back to haunt Bulgaria in the coming autumn and winter.
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Сolonelcassad
The Kremlin said that Russia will not comply with any decisions of the ECtHR related to foreign mercenaries. Regarding their fate, one should contact the DPR.
Recently, the father of a Moroccan mercenary sentenced to death turned to Putin with a request to pardon his son. This is also his answer. All questions about mercenaries - to the DPR.
Of course, Russia has ample opportunities to influence the decisions of the DPR. But it is objectively beneficial for Russia to switch contacts to people's republics, which requires the actual recognition of their existence, through recognition of the decisions of their legal system. You can choose not to recognize the DPR de jure as much as you like, but if you want to somehow discuss foreign mercenaries, you will have to do it de facto.
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Сolonelcassad
The situation in the Severodonetsk-Lysichansk direction
as of 21:00 on June 30, 2022
Despite the statements of officials of the Luhansk People's Republic, the battle for Lysichansk is still far from over. There is no question of any control of 30-50% of the city.
From the side of Severodonetsk , the combing of the left bank of the Seversky Donets continues: scattered detachments of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, national battalions and territorial defense are hiding in dachas and groves. Until the entire territory is completely cleared, it is somewhat premature to talk about establishing full control.
The cleanup of the Lisichansk oil refinery has been completed . The Ukrainian units that retreated to Zolotarevka are trying to gain a foothold along the last route of the retreat route from Lysichansk . After the capture of the village, the allied forces will deprive the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the only communication route between Lisichansk and Seversk. Now Ukrainian units are withdrawing in fields under artillery fire through Belogorovka .
The front line runs along the railroad in the area of Novozolotarevka station . The village of Verkhnekamenka south of the railway is controlled by the RF Armed Forces. There are fierce battles.
To the west of Lisichansk, Allied forces advance on Seversk from two directions: from the refinery towards Verkhnekamenskoye and from Nikolaevka towards Disputed .
To the west of Verkhnekamenskoye, the remnants of the 111th Terodefense Brigade are hastily equipping positions . Of the "serious" weapons, two MANPADS "Stinger" and "Perun" remained.
On the southern outskirts of Lisichansk , fighting continues in the area of the RTI plant and Belaya Gora .
Chechen units crossed the Seversky Donets near Privolye from Staraya Krasnyanka and, together with the People's Militia of the DPR, are storming the settlement. The message about the complete capture of Privolye was premature: pockets of resistance remain in the village.
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Сolonelcassad
The situation in the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog direction
as of 19.30 June 30, 2022
Currently, the battles in this direction are taking on a positional character. Artillery duels are underway, the sides are probing for weaknesses in the defense.
To track the activities of Russian troops on the line of contact from the Kanatovo airfield , at least one Bayraktar UAV operated. A Mi-8 helicopter was operating in the vicinity of Pribugsky .
Engineering units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are strengthening fortifications at the Tokarevo - Nikolaevka line .
A batch of diesel fuel arrived in Konstantinovka , supplied by the Polish oil refinery Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen .
Artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shelled the positions of the RF Armed Forces in Andreevka , Vysokopole Lozovoe , Pravdino and Ivanovka .
In addition, an attempt was made to sabotage in the form of detonating a small explosive package in the area of the pre-trial detention center in Kherson . There were no casualties.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation struck at the stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Novonikolaevka . As a result, two servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were killed and three wounded.
The situation in the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog direction has not undergone serious changes . Due to the large involvement of forces and means in the Donbass , the Ukrainian side is not able to proceed to the previously announced counterattack, mainly holding positional defense.
However, the restoration of control over Zmeiny Island , provided there is no retaliatory action by the RF Armed Forces, will free up most of the resources involved in the Odessa region. The bulk of them will be sent to the area of active hostilities in the Soledar direction, and the rest, most likely, will be used for the planned counteroffensive in the Kherson region.
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War Through the Eyes of a Journalist
About the battles in the north of Slavyansk
I was repeatedly in Sidorovo, Mayaki and Slavyansk before the war, here is a small analytics
1. In 1943, the Red Army was already fighting the hardest battles on the Mius Front in these parts. The Germans, as well as now the Ukrainians, occupy the dominant heights along the Sidorovo-Mayaki-Slavyansk highway. In some places, the track generally passes on both sides of the heights, reaching up to 20 meters in height.
2. As in 1943, there is no room for armored groups to maneuver. To the east from the highway Sidorovo - Mayaki - Slavyansk flows the river Seversky Donetsk, to the west - a dense forest (Mayatskoye forestry)
3. Back in the fall of 2014, local residents from Sidorovo called us and said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were mining all the fields and plantings. In this regard, the allied forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the DPR and the LPR have only one way left - to break through the Ukrainian defenses along the highway. All this takes time.
But I have no doubt that we will soon return to Slovyansk, as promised in 2014.
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Сolonelcassad
Support for the NWO in Russia, according to a recent public opinion poll, is 72%, as in the spring. The number of non-supporters even slightly decreased from 19 to 17%. The hopes of the US and NATO that economic problems, sanctions or a delay in the operation in Ukraine will be able to dilute this support have not fully materialized at the moment. Although even in the first half of spring they still harbored hopes for "anti-war protests" and "overthrow of the regime." Now they admit at the official level that this bet did not work and they are betting on a long exhausting campaign.
Oddly enough, the actions and statements of the West and Ukraine themselves play an important role in maintaining support for the SVO, which, in their clarity, perfectly explain to citizens against whom and why the SVO is being carried out. Hence the existence of a certain percentage of citizens who at the beginning of the NWO did not support it, but then, after looking at the statements and actions of the enemy, changed their minds.
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Сolonelcassad
Regarding the statements that Zmeiny was exchanged for transit to Kaliningrad as part of the "grain negotiations" and the deal allegedly looks like this - the Russian Federation withdraws troops from Zmeiny, Ukraine clears ports and starts exporting grain to Turkey (from a certain stage under the control of Russian ships? Russia demanded inspection of ships , Ukraine refused), and the EU unblocks Kaliningrad (allegedly from Monday), then we will be able to see at the beginning of next week how much this is true.
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https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
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